WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme flash floods

  1. Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-07-01

    There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

  2. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  3. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  4. Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Amponsah, William; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

    2018-03-01

    The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4-5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

  5. Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

  6. Impact of agricultural management on pluvial flash floods - Case study of an extreme event observed in Austria in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumassegger, Simon; Achleitner, Stefan; Kohl, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    Central Europe was affected by extreme flash floods in summer 2016 triggered by short, high-intensity storm cells. Besides fluvial runoff, local pluvial floods appear to increase recently. In frame of the research project SAFFER-CC (sensitivity assessment of critical condition for local flash floods - evaluating the recurrence under climate change) surface runoff and pluvial flooding is assessed using a coupled hydrological/2D hydrodynamic model for the severely affected municipality of Schwertberg, Upper Austria. In this small catchment several flooding events occurred in the last years, where the most severe event occurred during summer 2016. Several areas could only be reached after the flood wave subsided with observed flood marks up to one meter. The modeled catchment is intensively cultivated with maize, sugar beets, winter wheat and soy on the hillside and hence highly vulnerable to water erosion. The average inclination is relatively steep with 15 % leading to high flow velocities of surface runoff associated with large amounts of transported sediments. To assess the influence of land use and soil conservation on flash floods, field experiments with a portable irrigation spray installation were carried out at different locations. The test plots were subjected to rainfall with constant intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Consecutively a super intense, one hour lasting, rainfall hydrograph was applied after 30 minutes at the same plots, ranging from 50 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Surface runoff was collected and measured in a tank and water samples were taken to determine the suspended material load. Large differences of runoff coefficients were determined depending on the agricultural management. The largest discharge was measured in a maize field, where surface runoff occurred immediately after start of irrigation. The determined runoff coefficients ranged from 0.22 for soy up to 0.65 for maize for the same soil type and inclination. The conclusion that runoff is

  7. A global flash flood forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

  8. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan

    projections for estimation of changes in extreme rainfall characteristics. Climate model projections from 20 regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES data archive were used in the analysis. Two different estimation methods were applied, using, respectively, a direct estimation of the changes...... in the extreme value statistics of the RCM data, and application of a stochastic weather generator fitted to the changes in rainfall characteristics from the RCM data. The results show a large variability in the projected changes in extreme precipitation between the different RCMs and the two estimation methods...

  9. Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria Considering the increase in flash flood events causing massive damage during the last years in urban but also rural areas [1-4], the requirement for hydrodynamic calculation of flash flood prone areas and possible countermeasures has arisen to many municipalities and local governments. Besides the German based URBAS project [1], also the EU-funded FP7 research project "SWITCH-ON" [5] addresses the damage risk caused by flash floods in the sub-project "FFRM" (Flash Flood Risk Map Upper Austria) by calculating damage risk for buildings and vulnerable infrastructure like schools and hospitals caused by flash-flood driven inundation. While danger zones in riverine flooding are established as an integral part of spatial planning, flash floods caused by overland runoff from extreme rain events have been for long an underrated safety hazard not only for buildings and infrastructure, but man and animals as well. Based on the widespread 2D-model "hydro_as-2D", an extension was developed, which calculates the runoff formation from a spatially and temporally variable precipitation and determines two dimensionally the land surface area runoff and its concentration. The conception of the model is to preprocess the precipitation data and calculate the effective runoff-volume for a short time step of e.g. five minutes. This volume is applied to the nodes of the 2D-model and the calculation of the hydrodynamic model is started. At the end of each time step, the model run is stopped, the preprocessing step is repeated and the hydraulic model calculation is continued. In view of the later use for the whole of Upper Austria (12.000 km²) a model grid of 25x25 m² was established using digital elevation data. Model parameters could be estimated for the small catchment of river Ach, which was hit by an intense rain event with up to 109 mm per hour

  10. Flash flood disasters analysis and evaluation: a case study of Yiyang County in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haichen; Zhang, Xiaolei; Li, Qing; Qin, Tao; Lei, Xiaohui

    2018-03-01

    Global climate change leads to the more extreme precipitation and more flash flood disasters, which is a serious threat to the mountain inhabitants. To prevent flash flood disasters, China started flash flood disaster control planning and other projects from 2006. Among those measures, non-engineering measures are effective and economical. This paper introduced the framework of flash flood disaster analysis and evaluation in China, followed by a case study of Yiyang County.

  11. "Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood": Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazrus, Heather; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann

    2016-02-01

    Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder-area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Improving Flash Flood Prediction in Multiple Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broxton, P. D.; Troch, P. A.; Schaffner, M.; Unkrich, C.; Goodrich, D.; Wagener, T.; Yatheendradas, S.

    2009-12-01

    Flash flooding is a major concern in many fast responding headwater catchments . There are many efforts to model and to predict these flood events, though it is not currently possible to adequately predict the nature of flash flood events with a single model, and furthermore, many of these efforts do not even consider snow, which can, by itself, or in combination with rainfall events, cause destructive floods. The current research is aimed at broadening the applicability of flash flood modeling. Specifically, we will take a state of the art flash flood model that is designed to work with warm season precipitation in arid environments, the KINematic runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2), and combine it with a continuous subsurface flow model and an energy balance snow model. This should improve its predictive capacity in humid environments where lateral subsurface flow significantly contributes to streamflow, and it will make possible the prediction of flooding events that involve rain-on-snow or rapid snowmelt. By modeling changes in the hydrologic state of a catchment before a flood begins, we can also better understand the factors or combination of factors that are necessary to produce large floods. Broadening the applicability of an already state of the art flash flood model, such as KINEROS2, is logical because flash floods can occur in all types of environments, and it may lead to better predictions, which are necessary to preserve life and property.

  13. RURAL FLASH-FLOOD BEHAVIOR IN GOUYAVE WATERSHED, GRENADA, CARIBBEAN ISLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmat Aris Pratomo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Flash-flood is considered as one of the most common natural disasters in Grenada, a tropical small state island in Caribbean Island. Grenada has several areas which are susceptible to flooding. One of them is Gouyave town which is located in the north-west of Grenada. Its land-use types are highly dominated by green areas, especially in the upper-part of the region. The built-up areas can only be found in the lower-part of Gouyave watershed, near the coastal area. However, there were many land conversions from natural land-use types into built-up areas in the upper-part region. They affected the decrease of water infiltration and the increase of potential run-off, making these areas susceptible to flash-flood. In addition, it is also influenced by the phenomenon of climate change. Changes in extreme temperature increase higher potential of hurricanes or wind-storm, directly related to the potential escalation of flash-flood. To develop effective mitigation strategies, understanding the behavior of flash-flood is required. The purpose of this paper was to observe the behavior of flash-flood in Gouyave watershed in various return periods using OpenLISEM software. It was used to develop and analyse the flash-flood characteristics. The result showed that the climatic condition (rainfall intensity and land-use are influential to the flash-flood event. Flash-flood occurs in 35 and 100 years return period. Flash-flood inundates Gouyave’s area in long duration, with below 1 m flood depth. The flood propagation time is slow. This condition is also influenced by the narrower and longer of Gouyave basin shape. To develop flash-flood reduction strategies, the overall understanding of flash-flood behavior is important. If the mitigation strategy is adapted to their behavior, the implementation will be more optimum.

  14. Flash floods in Catalonia: a recurrent situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Lindbergh, S.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Rodríguez, A.; Zaragoza, A.

    2009-09-01

    A database with information about the social impact produced by all the flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built. Original information comes from the INUNGAMA database (1900-2000) presented by Barnolas and Llasat (2007), the PRESSGAMA database (1982-2007) (Llasat et al., in rev.) and information from different published works (Barriendos et al, 2003; Barriendos and Pomés, 1993). Social impact has been obtained systematically in basis to news press data and, occasionally, in basis to insurance data. Flood events have been classified in ordinary floods, extraordinary floods and catastrophic ones, following the proposal of Llasat et al (2005). However, having in mind the flash floods effects, some new categories concerning casualties and car damages have also been introduced. The spatial and temporal distribution of these flood events has been analysed. Results have been compared with those obtained for the period 1900-2000 (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007) and 1350-2000 (Barrera et al, 2006). In order to better estimate the social impact and vulnerability some indicators have been defined and analyzed for some specific cases and a specific region. Besides the indicators applied in the INUNCAT Plan to obtain a cartography of flood risk in Catalonia, other ones like the number of cars affected or the number of request received by the meteorological service, has been also taken into account. These indicators allow analyzing global and temporal trends as well as characterizing the events. The selected region has been the Maresme, which is a flood prone region with a great density of population and that experiences every year one or more flash floods. The annual number of floods shows a positive trend that cannot be justified by the rainfall trend. Both vulnerability and hazard components have been considered and a discussion about the flood prevention measures is presented. The third part of this work has been centred in the analysis and

  15. Flash flood modelling for ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garambois, P.-A.; Roux, H.; Larnier, K.; Dartus, D.

    2012-04-01

    Flash flood is a very intense and quick hydrologic response of a catchment to rainfall. This phenomenon has a high spatial-temporal variability as its generating storm, often hitting small catchments (few km2). Data collected by (Gaume et al. 2009) about 500 flash floods over the last 50 years showed that they could occur everywhere in Europe and more often in the Mediterranean regions, Alpine regions and continental Europe. Given the small spatial-temporal scales and high variability of flash floods, their prediction remains a hard exercise as the necessary data are often scarce. Flash flood prediction on ungauged catchments is one of the challenges of hydrological modelling as defined by (Sivapalan et al. 2003). Several studies have been headed up with the MARINE model (Modélisation de l'Anticipation du Ruissellement et des Inondations pour des évèNements Extrêmes) for the Gard region (France), (Roux et al. 2011), (Castaings et al. 2009). This physically based spatially distributed rainfall runoff model is dedicated to flash flood prediction. The study aims at finding a methodology for flash flood prediction at ungauged locations in the Cévennes-Vivarais region in particular. The regionalization method is based on multiple calibrations on gauged catchments in order to extract model structures (model + parameter values) for each catchment. Several mathematical methods (multiple regressions, transfer functions, krigging…) will then be tested to calculate a regional parameter set. The study also investigates the usability of additional hydrologic indices at different time scales to constrain model predictions from parameters obtained using these indices, and this independently of the model considered. These hydrologic indices gather information on hydrograph shape or catchment dynamic for instance. Results explaining global catchments behaviour are expected that way. The spatial-temporal variability of storms is also described through indices and linked with

  16. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.

    2006-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (M

  17. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borga, M.; Anagnostou, E.N.; Bloeschl, G.; Creutin, J.-D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

  18. A new French flash flood warning service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Saint-Aubin Céline

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The French State services in charge of flood forecasting supervise about 22,000 km among the 120,000 km of the French rivers within a warning procedure called Vigilance Crues (http://www.vigicrues.gouv.fr. Some recent dramatic flood events on small watershed not covered by Vigilance Crues highlight the need for a new warning procedure to anticipate violent flash floods that regularly affect rapid river-basins. Thus the concept emerged of an automatic warning service specifically dedicated to local crisis managers. This service will be less elaborated than Vigilance Crues, probably with false alarms and missed events sometimes, but it will deliver a first information. The generation of the warning is based on a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model developed by Irstea on all French rivers, fed with radar-gauge rainfall grids provided by Meteo-France. Every fifteen minutes, the hydrological model estimates the discharges on the rivers eligible to the service and determine if certain thresholds corresponding to a high or very high flood are likely to be exceeded. The last step of the real-time system is to determine which municipalities are concerned with flood risk and send them an automatic warning by voice call, optionally by sms or email. A specific web interface is available for users to monitor the evolution of the flood risk on maps that are updated every 15 minutes. This new flash flood warning service will be operational early 2017 as a free service for about 8,000 French municipalities.

  19. Flash flood swift water rescues, Texas, 2005–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaidehi Shah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although rainfall patterns are complex and difficult to predict, climate models suggest precipitation in Texas will occur less frequently and with greater intensity in the future. In combination with rapid population growth and development, extreme rainfall events are likely to lead to flash floods and necessitate swift water rescues. Swift water rescues are used to retrieve person(s from swift water flowing at a rate of 1 knot or greater. Data were obtained from the Texas Fire Marshal’s Office and analyzed to describe spatial and temporal characteristics of rescues. Between 2005 and 2014, 3256 swift water rescues were reported from 136 of 254 (54% counties. Over half (54.6%, n = 1777 occurred in counties known as Flash Flood Alley, which includes Texas’ largest and fastest growing cities. Less than 1.0% (n = 18 were reported from 49 counties designated as completely rural, or with an urban population less than 2500. Increases in swift water rescues were seen between March and September and during major weather events such as tropical storms. Because county-level data was utilized and demographic data was missing in all but 2% (n = 47 of the incidents, our ability to identify populations at risk or target interventions in the future using this data is limited. Despite the frequency of flash flood events and swift water rescues in Texas, knowledge gaps persist that should be addressed through the conduct of interdisciplinary research by epidemiologists and climatologists and by disseminating evidence-based health education and safety programs, particularly in rapidly growing counties that make up Texas’ Flash Flood Alley.

  20. A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is contributing to the increase of natural disasters such as extreme weather events. Sometimes, these events lead to sudden flash floods causing devastating effects on life and property. Most recently, many regions of the French Mediterranean perimeter have endured such catastrophic flood events; Var (October 2015), Ardèche (November 2014), Nîmes (October 2014), Hérault, Gard and Languedoc (September 2014), and Pyrenees mountains (Jun 2013). Altogether, it resulted in dozens of victims and property damages amounting to millions of euros. With this heavy loss in mind, development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is becoming an essential element in regional and national strategies. Flash flood forecasting but also monitoring is a difficult task because small ungauged catchments ( 10 km2) are often the most destructive ones as for the extreme flash flood event of September 2002 in the Cévennes region (France) (Ruin et al., 2008). The problem of measurement/prediction uncertainty is particularly crucial when attempting to develop operational flash-flood forecasting methods. Taking into account the uncertainty related to the model structure itself, to the model parametrization or to the model forcing (spatio-temporal rainfall, initial conditions) is crucial in hydrological modelling. Quantifying these uncertainties is of primary importance for risk assessment and decision making. Although significant improvements have been made in computational power and distributed hydrologic modelling, the issue dealing with integration of uncertainties into flood forecasting remains up-to-date and challenging. In order to develop a framework which could handle these uncertainties and explain their propagation through the model, we propose to explore the potential of graphical models (GMs) and, more precisely, Bayesian Networks (BNs). These networks are Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) in which knowledge of a certain phenomenon is represented by

  1. Frequency and seasonality of flash floods in Slovenia

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    Trobec Tajan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to assess and analyse the dynamics of flash flooding events in Slovenia. The paper examines in particular the frequency of flash floods and their seasonal distribution. The methodology is based on the analysis of historical records and modern flood data. The results of a long-term frequency analysis of 138 flash floods that occurred between 1550 and 2015 are presented. Because of the lack of adequate historical flood data prior to 1950 the main analysis is based on data for the periodbetween1951 and2015, while the analysis of data for the period between1550 and1950 is added as a supplement to the main analysis. Analysis of data for the period after 1950 shows that on average 1.3 flash floods occur each year in Slovenia. The linear trend for the number of flash floods is increasing but is not statistically significant. Despite the fact that the majority of Slovenian rivers have one of the peaks in spring and one of the lows in summer, 90% of flash floods actually occur during meteorological summer or autumn - i.e. between June and November, which shows that discharge regimes and flood regimes are not necessarily related. Because of the lack of flood records from the more distant past as well as the large variability of flash flood events in the last several decades, we cannot provide a definitive answer to the question about possible changes in their frequency and seasonality by relying solely on the detected trends. Nevertheless, considering the results of analysis and future climate change scenarios the frequency of flash floods in Slovenia could increase while the period of flash flood occurrence could be extended.

  2. Looking for the best flash floods indicators in Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Turco, Marco

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are a recurrent hazard in Mediterranean Region. From a global point of view, a distinction between two kinds of floods can be made (Llasat, 2009): a) Short-lived and strongly convective events (cases recorded between 2005 and 2006. This sample has been increased with some selected cases of the European project HYDRATE. Information from all the flash-floods recorded in Catalonia (Spain) since 1982, completed with data about population density and so on, has also been considered.

  3. Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

  4. Flash floods in Europe: state of the art and research perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaume, Eric

    2014-05-01

    Flash floods, i.e. floods induced by severe rainfall events generally affecting watersheds of limited area, are the most frequent, destructive and deadly kind of natural hazard known in Europe and throughout the world. Flash floods are especially intense across the Mediterranean zone, where rainfall accumulations exceeding 500 mm within a few hours may be observed. Despite this state of facts, the study of extremes in hydrology has essentially gone unexplored until the recent past, with the exception of some rare factual reports on individual flood events, with the sporadic inclusion of isolated estimated peak discharges. Floods of extraordinary magnitude are in fact hardly ever captured by existing standard measurement networks, either because they are too heavily concentrated in space and time or because their discharges greatly exceed the design and calibration ranges of the measurement devices employed (stream gauges). This situation has gradually evolved over the last decade for two main reasons. First, the expansion and densification of weather radar networks, combined with improved radar quantitative precipitation estimates, now provide ready access to rainfall measurements at spatial and temporal scales that, while not perfectly accurate, are compatible with the study of extreme events. Heavy rainfall events no longer fail to be recorded by existing rain gauge and radar networks. Second, pioneering research efforts on extreme floods, based on precise post-flood surveys, have helped overcome the limitations imposed by a small base of available direct measured data. This activity has already yielded significant progress in expanding the knowledge and understanding of extreme flash floods. This presentation will provide a review of the recent research progresses in the area of flash flood studies, mainly based on the outcomes of the European research projects FLOODsite, HYDRATE and Hymex. It will show how intensive collation of field data helped better define

  5. Interim report on flash floods, Area 5 - Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French, R.H.

    1980-09-01

    Examination of the presently available data indicates that consideration must be given to the possibility of flash floods when siting waste management facilities in Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site. 6 figures, 7 tables

  6. Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Romulus Costache

    2017-06-16

    Jun 16, 2017 ... torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating ... Service (USA). At that ... to improve the quality of flash-flood forecasts. ...... offers the possibility to obtain more credible and.

  7. Medium range forecasting of Hurricane Harvey flash flooding using ECMWF and social vulnerability data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, F. M.; Jurlina, T.; Baugh, C.; Tsonevsky, I.; Hewson, T.; Prates, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Prudhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    During hurricane Harvey the greater east Texas area was affected by extensive flash flooding. Their localised nature meant they were too small for conventional large scale flood forecasting systems to capture. We are testing the use of two real time forecast products from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in combination with local vulnerability information to provide flash flood forecasting tools at the medium range (up to 7 days ahead). Meteorological forecasts are the total precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI), a measure of how the ensemble forecast probability distribution differs from the model-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time; and the shift of tails (SOT) which complements the EFI by quantifying how extreme an event could potentially be. Both products give the likelihood of flash flood generating precipitation. For hurricane Harvey, 3-day EFI and SOT products for the period 26th - 29th August 2017 were used, generated from the twice daily, 18 km, 51 ensemble member ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. After regridding to 1 km resolution the forecasts were combined with vulnerable area data to produce a flash flood hazard risk area. The vulnerability data were floodplains (EU Joint Research Centre), road networks (Texas Department of Transport) and urban areas (Census Bureau geographic database), together reflecting the susceptibility to flash floods from the landscape. The flash flood hazard risk area forecasts were verified using a traditional approach against observed National Weather Service flash flood reports, a total of 153 reported flash floods have been detected in that period. Forecasts performed best for SOT = 5 (hit ratio = 65%, false alarm ratio = 44%) and EFI = 0.7 (hit ratio = 74%, false alarm ratio = 45%) at 72 h lead time. By including the vulnerable areas data, our verification results improved by 5-15%, demonstrating the value of vulnerability information within

  8. Flash Flood Type Identification within Catchments in Beijing Mountainous Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nan, W.

    2017-12-01

    Flash flood is a common type of disaster in mountainous area, Flash flood with the feature of large flow rate, strong flushing force, destructive power, has periodically caused loss to life and destruction to infrastructure in mountainous area. Beijing as China's political, economic and cultural center, the disaster prevention and control work in Beijing mountainous area has always been concerned widely. According to the transport mechanism, sediment concentration and density, the flash flood type identification within catchment can provide basis for making the hazards prevention and mitigation policy. Taking Beijing as the study area, this paper extracted parameters related to catchment morphological and topography features respectively. By using Bayes discriminant, Logistic regression and Random forest, the catchments in Beijing mountainous area were divided into water floods process, fluvial sediment transport process and debris flows process. The results found that Logistic regression analysis showed the highest accuracy, with the overall accuracy of 88.2%. Bayes discriminant and Random forest had poor prediction effects. This study confirmed the ability of morphological and topography features to identify flash flood process. The circularity ratio, elongation ratio and roughness index can be used to explain the flash flood types effectively, and the Melton ratio and elevation relief ratio also did a good job during the identification, whereas the drainage density seemed not to be an issue at this level of detail. Based on the analysis of spatial patterns of flash flood types, fluvial sediment transport process and debris flow process were the dominant hazards, while the pure water flood process was much less. The catchments dominated by fluvial sediment transport process were mainly distributed in the Yan Mountain region, where the fault belts were relatively dense. The debris flow process prone to occur in the Taihang Mountain region thanks to the abundant

  9. Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

  10. A retrospective analysis of the flash flood in Braunsbach on May 29th, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudan, Jonas; Öztürk, Ugur; Sieg, Tobias; Wendi, Dadiyorto; Riemer, Adrian; Agarwal, Ankit; Rözer, Viktor; Korup, Oliver; Thieken, Annegret; Vogel, Kristin

    2017-04-01

    At the end of May and early June 2016 several rainstorms caused severe surface water flooding and flash floods, partly accompanied by mud and debris flows, in Central Europe, and especially in southern Germany. On the evening of May 29, 2016, a flood outburst with massive amounts of rubble and muddy sediments hit the town of Braunsbach, Baden-Württemberg, damaging numerous buildings, cars, and town facilities. The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach "flash flood" as an exemplary catastrophic event triggered by severe weather. Bringing together scientists from the fields of meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology, flood risk, natural hazards, and mathematics the research team was especially interested in the interplay of causes and triggers leading to the event. Accordingly, the team focused on the entire process chain from heavy precipitation to runoff and flood generation and the geomorphic aftermath. The steep slopes in the catchment area promote the episodic supply of gravel, debris and organic material, which remains stored for decades to millennia, only to be remobilized during rare and extreme runoff events such as in 2016. Field mapping revealed at least 48 landslides as sources of high sediment loads. Nonetheless, numerous scars of river erosion along the tributary creeks into Braunsbach indicate that most of the material carried by the flash flood was due to bank undercutting. The flow also entrained more rubble, trees, cars, and other anthropogenic sediments further downstream. This enhanced solids load increased the physical impact, and hence damage, to buildings. Local effects of flow depth, flow velocity, and exposition of buildings into the advancing non-steady and non-uniform flow caused the damage to exceed that of a clearwater flood with comparable return period. We conclude that, to meaningfully inform the implementation of precautionary

  11. Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2009-09-01

    Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait

  12. Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.

    2012-04-01

    China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

  13. Lessons learned from Khartoum flash flood impacts: An integrated assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, Mohamad Ibrahim; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Horn, Finlay; Saad, Suhair A G

    2017-12-01

    This study aims at enabling the compilation of key lessons for decision makers and urban planners in rapidly urbanizing cities regarding the identification of representative, chief causal natural and human factors for the increased level of flash flood risk. To achieve this, the impacts of flash flood events of 2013 and 2014 in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, were assessed using seven integrated approaches, i.e. rainfall data analysis, document analysis of affected people and houses, observational fieldwork in the worst flood affected areas, people's perception of causes and mitigation measures through household interviews, reported drinking water quality, reported water-related diseases and social risk assessment. Several lessons have been developed as follows. Urban planners must recognize the devastating risks of building within natural pathways of ephemeral watercourses. They must also ensure effective drainage infrastructures and physio-geographical investigations prior to developing urban areas. The existing urban drainage systems become ineffective due to blockage by urban waste. Building of unauthorized drainage and embankment structures by locals often cause greater flood problems than normal. The urban runoff is especially problematic for residential areas built within low-lying areas having naturally low infiltration capacity, as surface water can rapidly collect within hollows and depressions, or beside elevated roads that preclude the free flow of floodwater. Weak housing and infrastructure quality are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and even to rainfall directly. Establishment of services infrastructure is imperative for flash flood disaster risk reduction. Water supply should be from lower aquifers to avoid contaminant groundwater. Regular monitoring of water quality and archiving of its indicators help identify water-related diseases and sources of water contamination in the event of environmental disasters such as floods. Though the

  14. Flash flood characterisation of the Haor area of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, B.; Suman, A.

    2012-04-01

    Haors are large bowl-shaped flood plain depressions located mostly in north-eastern part of Bangladesh covering about 25% of the entire region. During dry season haors are used for agriculture and during rainy season it is used as fisheries. Haors have profound ecological importance. About 8000 migratory wild birds visit the area annually. Some of the haors are declared at Ramsar sites. Haors are frequently affected by the flash floods due to hilly topography and steep slope of the rivers draining the area. These flash floods spill onto low-lying flood plain lands in the region, inundating crops, damaging infrastructure by erosion and often causing loss of lives and properties. Climate change is exacerbating the situation. For appropriate risk mitigation mechanism it is necessary to explore flood characteristics of that region. The area is not at all studied well. Under a current project a numerical 1D2D model based on MIKE Flood is developed to study the flooding characteristics and estimate the climate change impacts on the haor region. Under this study the progression of flood levels at some key haors in relation to the water level data at specified gauges in the region is analysed. As the region is at the border with India so comparing with the gauges at the border with India is carried out. The flooding in the Haor area is associated with the rainfall in the upstream catchment in India (Meghalaya, Barak and Tripura basins in India). The flood propagation in some of the identified haors in relation to meteorological forcing in the three basins in India is analysed as well. Subsequently, a ranking of haors is done based on individual risks. Based on the IPCC recommendation the precipitation scenario in the upstream catchments under climate change is considered. The study provides the fundamental inputs for preparing a flood risk management plan of the region.

  15. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  16. The development of a flash flood severity index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Amanda J.; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hardy, Jill; Henderson, Jen J.; Parhi, Pradipta; Rahmani, Vahid; Reed, Kimberly A.; Schumacher, Russ S.; Smith, Brianne K.; Taraldsen, Matthew J.

    2016-10-01

    Flash flooding is a high impact weather event that requires clear communication regarding severity and potential hazards among forecasters, researchers, emergency managers, and the general public. Current standards used to communicate these characteristics include return periods and the United States (U.S.) National Weather Service (NWS) 4-tiered river flooding severity scale. Return periods are largely misunderstood, and the NWS scale is limited to flooding on gauged streams and rivers, often leaving out heavily populated urban corridors. To address these shortcomings, a student-led group of interdisciplinary researchers came together in a collaborative effort to develop an impact-based Flash Flood Severity Index (FFSI). The index was proposed as a damage-based, post-event assessment tool, and preliminary work toward the creation of this index has been completed and presented here. Numerous case studies were analyzed to develop the preliminary outline for the FFSI, and three examples of such cases are included in this paper. The scale includes five impact-based categories ranging from Category 1 very minor flooding to Category 5 catastrophic flooding. Along with the numerous case studies used to develop the initial outline of the scale, empirical data in the form of semi-structured interviews were conducted with multiple NWS forecasters across the country and their responses were analyzed to gain more perspective on the complicated nature of flash flood definitions and which tools were found to be most useful. The feedback from these interviews suggests the potential for acceptance of such an index if it can account for specific challenges.

  17. The Evolution and Structure of Extreme Optical Lightning Flashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Michael; Rudlosky, Scott; Deierling, Wiebke

    2017-12-27

    This study documents the composition, morphology, and motion of extreme optical lightning flashes observed by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). The furthest separation of LIS events (groups) in any flash is 135 km (89 km), the flash with the largest footprint had an illuminated area of 10,604 km 2 , and the most dendritic flash has 234 visible branches. The longest-duration convective LIS flash lasted 28 s and is overgrouped and not physical. The longest-duration convective-to-stratiform propagating flash lasted 7.4 s, while the longest-duration entirely stratiform flash lasted 4.3 s. The longest series of nearly consecutive groups in time lasted 242 ms. The most radiant recorded LIS group (i.e., "superbolt") is 735 times more radiant than the average group. Factors that impact these optical measures of flash morphology and evolution are discussed. While it is apparent that LIS can record the horizontal development of the lightning channel in some cases, radiative transfer within the cloud limits the flash extent and level of detail measured from orbit. These analyses nonetheless suggest that lightning imagers such as LIS and Geostationary Lightning Mapper can complement ground-based lightning locating systems for studying physical lightning phenomena across large geospatial domains.

  18. Advances in flash floods understanding and modelling derived from the FloodScale project in South-East France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braud Isabelle

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean area is prone to intense rainfall events triggering flash floods, characterized by very short response times that sometimes lead to dramatic consequences in terms of casualties and damages. These events can affect large territories, but their impact may be very local in catchments that are generally ungauged. These events remain difficult to predict and the processes leading to their generation still need to be clarified. The HyMeX initiative (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, 2010-2020 aims at increasing our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean basin, in particular in terms of extreme events. In order to better understand processes leading to flash floods, a four-year experiment (2012-2015 was conducted in the Cévennes region (South-East France as part of the FloodScale project. Both continuous and opportunistic measurements during floods were conducted in two large catchments (Ardèche and Gard rivers with nested instrumentation from the hillslopes to catchments of about 1, 10, 100 to 1000 km2 covering contrasted geology and land use. Continuous measurements include distributed rainfall, stream water level, discharge, water temperature and conductivity and soil moisture measurements. Opportunistic measurements include surface soil moisture and geochemistry sampling during events and gauging of floods using non-contact methods: portable radars to measure surface water velocity or image sequence analysis using LS-PIV (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry. During the period 2012-2014, and in particular during autumn 2014, several intense events affected the catchments and provided very rich data sets. Data collection was complemented with modelling activity aiming at simulating observed processes. The modelling strategy was setup through a wide range of scales, in order to test hypotheses about physical processes at the smallest scales, and aggregated functioning hypothesis at the largest

  19. FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS FLOODING OF THE CRIMEAN AREA DURING OF FLASH FLOODS IN 2012ON THE BASIS COMPUTER SIMULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. O. Agafonnikova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics features of the surface waters for the territory of the Crimea area of Krasnodar region in flash flood conditions have been studied. The parameters of flooding depending on the precipitation intensity have been defined.

  20. Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-10-01

    In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

  1. Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

    2018-07-15

    The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  3. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

    2015-04-01

    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

  4. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  5. A Conceptual Flash Flood Early Warning System for Africa, Based on Terrestrial Microwave Links and Flash Flood Guidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joost C. B. Hoedjes

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual flash flood early warning system for developing countries is described. The system uses rainfall intensity data from terrestrial microwave communication links and the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite, i.e., two systems that are already in place and operational. Flash flood early warnings are based on a combination of the Flash Flood Guidance method and a hydrological model. The system will be maintained and operated through a public-private partnership, which includes a mobile telephone operator, a national meteorological service and an emergency relief service. The mobile telephone operator acts as both the supplier of raw input data and the disseminator of early warnings. The early warning system could significantly reduce the number of fatalities due to flash floods, improve the efficiency of disaster risk reduction efforts and play an important role in strengthening the resilience to climate change of developing countries in Africa. This paper describes the system that is currently being developed for Kenya.

  6. Urban flash flood vulnerability : spatial assessment and adaptation : a case study in Istanbul, Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reyes-Acevedo, Martin Alejandro; Flacke, J.; Brussel, M.J.G.

    2011-01-01

    The Ayamama River basin in Istanbul is a densely populated urban area that is frequently impacted by flash floods causing damage to people and infrastructure. The IPCC expects that under climate change conditions, more intense precipitation will occur, leading to a higher risk of flash floods.

  7. Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

    2016-04-01

    Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

  8. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  9. Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location

  10. A Novel Dual Traffic/Flash Flood Monitoring System Using Passive Infrared/Ultrasonic Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa; Odat, Enas M.; Claudel, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Floods are the most common type of natural disaster, causing thousands of casualties every year. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the high concentration of population in cities. Since most flash flood casualties are caused by a lack of information, it is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings of flash floods. However, deploying an infrastructure that solely monitor flash floods makes little economic sense, since the average periodicity of catastrophic flash floods exceeds the lifetime of a typical sensor network. To address this issue, we propose a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and another phenomenon of interest (traffic congestion on the present case). This sensing device is based on the combination of an ultrasonic rangefinder with one or multiple remote temperature sensors. We show an implementation of this device, and illustrate its performance in both traffic flow and flash flood sensing. Field data shows that the sensor can detect vehicles with a 99% accuracy, in addition to estimating their speed and classifying them in function of their length. The same sensor can also monitor urban water levels with an accuracy of less than 2 cm. Two of the sensors have been deployed in a flood prone area, where they captured the only (minor) flash flood that occurred over the one-year test period, with no false detection, and an agreement in the estimated water level estimate (during the flash flood event) of about 2 cm.

  11. A Novel Dual Traffic/Flash Flood Monitoring System Using Passive Infrared/Ultrasonic Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa

    2015-10-19

    Floods are the most common type of natural disaster, causing thousands of casualties every year. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the high concentration of population in cities. Since most flash flood casualties are caused by a lack of information, it is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings of flash floods. However, deploying an infrastructure that solely monitor flash floods makes little economic sense, since the average periodicity of catastrophic flash floods exceeds the lifetime of a typical sensor network. To address this issue, we propose a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and another phenomenon of interest (traffic congestion on the present case). This sensing device is based on the combination of an ultrasonic rangefinder with one or multiple remote temperature sensors. We show an implementation of this device, and illustrate its performance in both traffic flow and flash flood sensing. Field data shows that the sensor can detect vehicles with a 99% accuracy, in addition to estimating their speed and classifying them in function of their length. The same sensor can also monitor urban water levels with an accuracy of less than 2 cm. Two of the sensors have been deployed in a flood prone area, where they captured the only (minor) flash flood that occurred over the one-year test period, with no false detection, and an agreement in the estimated water level estimate (during the flash flood event) of about 2 cm.

  12. Development of a precipitation-area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Deg-Hyo; Lee, Moon-Hwan; Moon, Sung-Keun

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002-2009) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P-A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P-A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P-A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h-1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km2, respectively. The proposed P-A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

  13. WMO World Record Lightning Extremes: Longest Reported Flash Distance and Longest Reported Flash Duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Timothy J; Pédeboy, Stéphane; Rison, William; Cerveny, Randall S; Montanyà, Joan; Chauzy, Serge; MacGorman, Donald R; Holle, Ronald L; Ávila, Eldo E; Zhang, Yijun; Carbin, Gregory; Mansell, Edward R; Kuleshov, Yuriy; Peterson, Thomas C; Brunet, Manola; Driouech, Fatima; Krahenbuhl, Daniel S

    2017-06-01

    A World Meteorological Organization weather and climate extremes committee has judged that the world's longest reported distance for a single lightning flash occurred with a horizontal distance of 321 km (199.5 mi) over Oklahoma in 2007, while the world's longest reported duration for a single lightning flash is an event that lasted continuously for 7.74 seconds over southern France in 2012. In addition, the committee has unanimously recommended amendment of the AMS Glossary of Meteorology definition of lightning discharge as a "series of electrical processes taking place within 1 second" by removing the phrase "within one second" and replacing with "continuously." Validation of these new world extremes (a) demonstrates the recent and on-going dramatic augmentations and improvements to regional lightning detection and measurement networks, (b) provides reinforcement regarding the dangers of lightning, and (c) provides new information for lightning engineering concerns.

  14. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  15. Flash floods in small Alpine catchments in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hazardous meteorological and hydrological events in numerous mountainous areas. The mountain environment is becoming more and more important for urbanization and the tourism-based economy. Here we show new and innovative methodologies for assessing intensity and frequency of flash floods in small Alpine catchments, in South Tyrol (Italy), under climate change. This research is done within the STEEP STREAMS project, whereby we work closely with decision makers in Italian authorities, and the final goal is to provide them with clear guidelines on how to adapt current structural solutions for mitigating hazardous events under future climate conditions. To this end, we develop a coupled framework of weather generation (i.e. extrapolation of observations and trained with climate projections), time series disaggregation and hydrological modelling using the conceptual HBV model. One of the key challenges is the transfer of comparatively coarse RCM projections to small catchments, whose sizes range from only about 10km2 to 100km2. We examine different strategies to downscale the RCM data from e.g. the EURO-CORDEX dataset using our weather generator. The selected projections represent combinations of warmer, milder, drier and wetter conditions. In general, our main focus is to develop an improved understanding of the impact of the multiple sources of uncertainty in this modelling framework, and make these uncertainties tangible. The output of this study (i.e. discharge with a return period and associated uncertainty) will allow hydraulic and sediment transport modelling of flash floods and debris flows.

  16. The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

    2000-01-01

    This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted

  17. Preparatory investigations for a public dialogue on flash flood risk in the Mehlemer Bach catchment, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seydel, Elena; Turley, Michael; Becht, Michael; Heckmann, Tobias

    2013-04-01

    On July 3rd, 2010, an extreme precipitation event occurred in the municipality of Wachtberg at the southern urban fringe of the Federal City of Bonn. The 30-min intensity of the torrential rain was estimated to represent a 1000 year event according to the KOSTRA dataset (German Meteorological Service, DWD). Rapid overland flow and the exceedance of the design values of the sewerage system caused a flash flood in the Mehlemer Bach catchment. Roughly 400 buildings were affected in its lower, urbanized part, and it took over two weeks to clear the damage. Similar flash flood events have been recorded in the same catchment regularly since the year 1693, three times in the last 80 years alone. The fact that, in case of the 2010 event, the official weather warning was released almost simultaneously to the beginning of the downpour highlights the urgent need for preparative action in the longer term. Flash flood risk mitigation relies, among others, on risk awareness and preparedness of residents. One aim of this study is to analyse the current risk communication in the drainage area of Mehlemer Bach through questionnaires and expert interviews, which will provide a good basis for an open dialogue between residents and the authorities. There is an urgent need for practical and accessible advice, and it must be ensured that the resources and capabilities of the individuals involved are taken into consideration. In addition, we compare a hazard map of the area to mental maps drawn by the local population in order to assess their risk perception.

  18. A study case of Baranca drainage basin flash-floods using the hydrological model of Hec-Ras

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aritina HALIUC

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, the floods which occurred within Romanian territory stand as proof for the increased frequency of the extreme hydrological hazards which have negative effects on the normal pathway of the human-beings activities. The technological progress among with the increased frequency of floods events are the base for the development of informational programs for the analysis, simulation and flood management. The Baranca brook which drains a considerable part of Zamostea village (Romania was used as a pilot drainage basin for the flash-flood simulation using the Hec-Ras program and the Arcgis extension, HecGeo-Ras. The flash-floods that occurred in the summer of 2010 were used to validate the results of the simulation. Between 28.06.2010 – 29.06.2010, two flash-floods occurred in the Baranca drainage basin with a discharge oscillated between 10m3 and 70m3, a water extent which covered an area of 5.14 km2 and a depth ranging between 0.3-3m. The programs are capable to simulate the water flow and to investigate the floodway encroachments in the study area. The damages evaluated in the field along with the program’s results reveal the fact that more than half of the built-up areas of Zamostea village are established along brooks, within the floodplain area. What is more, after the 2010 floods, the expension of the habitable area was not detained by the water danger, many houses are still built on the floodplain. The programs used, taking an acceptable margin of error, may be integrated into any flood management strategy or in any watershed plan and may provide the necessary support for mitigating the risks associated with floods

  19. Gauging Flash-Floods: Automated Measurement of Flood Events in Mountain Torrents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liechti, Katharina; Boss, Stefan; Fritschi, Bruno; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2017-04-01

    Rating curves contain uncertainties, especially in their upper range of higher discharge. This is due to more uncertainties in the measurements and also the typically lower number of measurements of high discharge events. However, it is the upper part of a rating curve that is of interest if it comes to dimensioning protection measures against floods and flash floods. For small municipalities who plan mitigation measures like a dam for protection against flash floods of small mountain torrent a rating curve as accurate as possible can be of great interest. It helps to reduce costs that can be caused by both under- and overdimensioning of a protective structure. We therefore invented a mobile discharge measurement station that is set up to construct a rating curve for small turbulent mountain torrents. It operates with salt dilution method and works in its current setup up to about 10 m3/s. The salt is injected automatically to the torrent when an event of desired magnitude takes place. Further downstream a conductivity measuring sensor records the change in salt concentration of the stream water. This mechanism is guided by automatic continuous observation of radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and a water pressure sensor. Measurements at a first test site gave promising results. The system does event measurements independent of the time of day and day of the week. The measuring equipment at the field site is only activated in case of an event. Therefore it has a low power consumption and can be run by only two solar panels.

  20. A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Roux

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A spatially distributed hydrological model, dedicated to flood simulation, is developed on the basis of physical process representation (infiltration, overland flow, channel routing. Estimation of model parameters requires data concerning topography, soil properties, vegetation and land use. Four parameters are calibrated for the entire catchment using one flood event. Model sensitivity to individual parameters is assessed using Monte-Carlo simulations. Results of this sensitivity analysis with a criterion based on the Nash efficiency coefficient and the error of peak time and runoff are used to calibrate the model. This procedure is tested on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, located in the Mediterranean zone of southern France. A first validation is conducted using three flood events with different hydrometeorological characteristics. This sensitivity analysis along with validation tests illustrates the predictive capability of the model and points out the possible improvements on the model's structure and parameterization for flash flood forecasting, especially in ungauged basins. Concerning the model structure, results show that water transfer through the subsurface zone also contributes to the hydrograph response to an extreme event, especially during the recession period. Maps of soil saturation emphasize the impact of rainfall and soil properties variability on these dynamics. Adding a subsurface flow component in the simulation also greatly impacts the spatial distribution of soil saturation and shows the importance of the drainage network. Measures of such distributed variables would help discriminating between different possible model structures.

  1. Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

  2. Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with

  3. Flash floods along the Italian coastal areas: examples from Pozzuoli city, Campania, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esposito, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Giuseppe; Matano, Fabio; Mazzola, Salvatore; Sacchi, Marco

    2014-05-01

    The Italian western coastal areas are the most exposed in the country to low-pressure systems coming from the central-western Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. In the last years, many Italian coastal villages were struck by floods and flow processes triggered by high-intensity and short-duration rainfall, typical of flash flood events. In the Campania region (SW Italy) a series of events has caused several fatalities and heavy damages in the last decades, i.e. the flash floods of Casamicciola - Ischia Island (10/11/2009 - 1 fatality) and Atrani (9/9/2010 - 1 fatality). In this work we describe the rainfall properties and the ground effects of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 flash floods which involved the city of Pozzuoli, along the Campi Flegrei coast, where a catastrophic flood event (13 fatalities) is reported in 1918 in the AVI Project database. Rainfall data were measured at a sampling rate of 10 minutes by a regional Civil Protection rain gauge located in the city of Pozzuoli near the areas struck by the flash flood effects. In order to analyze the extreme features of the rainstorms and compare them, we have considered the 1-hour maximum rainfall amount and the 10-min peak storm intensity value for each event. The first rainstorm occurred on 14 September 2009; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 34.4 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 57.6 mm/h. The second rainstorm occurred on 30 July 2010; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 40.6 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 126 mm/h. The third rainstorm occurred on 06 November 2011; it was characterized by a 1-hour maximum rainfall amount of 44.2 mm and a 10-min peak storm intensity of 67.2 mm/h. The three described rainstorms all triggered erosional processes and shallow landslides in the upper part of the Pozzuoli drainage basin that supplied sheet flows and hyperconcentrated flows downstream, with severe damage to the human structures built near or inside the

  4. Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Inna Pivovarova; Daria Sokolova; Artur Batyrov; Vadim Kuzmin; Ngoc Anh Tran; DinhKha Dang; Kirill V. Shemanaev

    2018-01-01

    Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfort...

  5. A framework of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic models using synthetic rainfall for flash flood hazard mapping of ungauged catchments in tropical zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Lohpaisankrit

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood hazard maps provide a scientific support to mitigate flash flood risk. The present study develops a practical framework with the help of integrated hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling in order to estimate the potential flash floods. We selected a small pilot catchment which has already suffered from flash floods in the past. This catchment is located in the Nan River basin, northern Thailand. Reliable meteorological and hydrometric data are missing in the catchment. Consequently, the entire upper basin of the main river was modelled with the help of the hydrological modelling system PANTA RHEI. In this basin, three monitoring stations are located along the main river. PANTA RHEI was calibrated and validated with the extreme flood events in June 2011 and July 2008, respectively. The results show a good agreement with the observed discharge data. In order to create potential flash flood scenarios, synthetic rainfall series were derived from temporal rainfall patterns based on the radar-rainfall observation and different rainfall depths from regional rainfall frequency analysis. The temporal rainfall patterns were characterized by catchment-averaged rainfall series selected from 13 rainstorms in 2008 and 2011 within the region. For regional rainfall frequency analysis, the well-known L-moments approach and related criteria were used to examine extremely climatic homogeneity of the region. According to the L-moments approach, Generalized Pareto distribution was recognized as the regional frequency distribution. The synthetic rainfall series were fed into the PANTA RHEI model. The simulated results from PANTA RHEI were provided to a 2-D hydrodynamic model (MEADFLOW, and various simulations were performed. Results from the integrated modelling framework are used in the ongoing study to regionalize and map the spatial distribution of flash flood hazards with four levels of flood severities. As an overall outcome, the presented framework

  6. The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

    2016-02-01

    Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this

  7. Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

  8. Analysis of economic vulnerability to flash floods in urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; García, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

    2017-04-01

    The growth of exposed population to floods, the expansion in allocation of economical activities to flood-prone areas and the rise of extraordinary event frequency over the last few decades, have resulted in an increase of flash flood-related casualties and economic losses. The increase in these losses at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Vulnerability is defined as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. In recent years, numerous papers have deal with the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability. However, economic factors are often a neglected aspect in traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on structural measures and flood damage models. In this context, the aim of this research is to identify those economic characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazard, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Cluster Analysis of economic information provided by different public institutional databases. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2), placed in Central-Northern Spain. Townships included in this study meet two requirements: i) urban areas are potentially affected by flash floods (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1); ii) urban areas are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of

  9. The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Younis

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In Mediterranean Europe, flash flooding is one of the most devastating hazards in terms of loss of human life and infrastructures. Over the last two decades, flash floods have caused damage costing a billion Euros in France alone. One of the problems of flash floods is that warning times are very short, leaving typically only a few hours for civil protection services to act. This study investigates if operationally available short-range numerical weather forecasts together with a rainfall-runoff model can be used for early indication of the occurrence of flash floods.

    One of the challenges in flash flood forecasting is that the watersheds are typically small, and good observational networks of both rainfall and discharge are rare. Therefore, hydrological models are difficult to calibrate and the simulated river discharges cannot always be compared with ground measurements. The lack of observations in most flash flood prone basins, therefore, necessitates the development of a method where the excess of the simulated discharge above a critical threshold can provide the forecaster with an indication of potential flood hazard in the area, with lead times of the order of weather forecasts.

    This study is focused on the Cévennes-Vivarais region in the Southeast of the Massif Central in France, a region known for devastating flash floods. This paper describes the main aspects of using numerical weather forecasting for flash flood forecasting, together with a threshold – exceedance. As a case study the severe flash flood event which took place on 8–9 September 2002 has been chosen.

    Short-range weather forecasts, from the Lokalmodell of the German national weather service, are used as input for the LISFLOOD model, a hybrid between a conceptual and physically based rainfall-runoff model. Results of the study indicate that high resolution operational weather forecasting combined with a rainfall-runoff model could be useful to

  10. Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

    Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

  11. A regional distributed hydrological modelling approach for flash-flood understanding and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Roux, Hélène; Vannier, Olivier; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Viallet, Pierre; Boudevillain, Brice; Dartus, Denis; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods represent the most destructive natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing around one billion Euros worth of damage in France over the last two decades. Flash floods are associated with extreme and rare rainfall events and usually occur in ungauged river basins. Amongst them, small-ungauged catchments are recognized as the most vulnerable to storm driven flash floods. In order to limit the damages to the population, there is a need to improve our understanding and the simulation tools for these events. In order to provide information over a whole region, hydrological models applicable at this scale, and able to take into account the spatial variability of rainfall and catchment characteristics, must be proposed. This paper presents such a regional distributed approach applied to the 8-9 September 2002 extreme event which affected the Gard region in the south-east of France. In order to identify the variables and catchment characteristics which require improved knowledge, two distributed hydrological models were set up on a set of catchments, with sizes ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization and process representation. They were forced using radar data with a 1 km2 spatial resolution and 5 min time step. The model parameters were specified using the available information, namely a digital terrain model and a soil data base. The latter provides information about soil texture, soil porosity and soil depths. Soil hydraulic properties were defined using pedo-transfer functions. Data from a post-flood field survey of maximum peak discharge were used to assess the quality of the simulations. A reasonable agreement between modeled and observed values was obtained. Sensitivity studies were then performed to asses the respective impact of rainfall estimation and soil variability on the simulated discharge. The analysis shows that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics and that high

  12. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  13. Toward seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting over Europe based on radar nowcasting and NWP: An evaluation with case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Shinju; Berenguer, Marc; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Baugh, Calum; Smith, Paul

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods induced by heavy rain are one of the hazardous natural events that significantly affect human lives. Because flash floods are characterized by their rapid onset, forecasting flash flood to lead an effective response requires accurate rainfall predictions with high spatial and temporal resolution and adequate representation of the hydrologic and hydraulic processes within a catchment that determine rainfall-runoff accumulations. We present extreme flash flood cases which occurred throughout Europe in 2015-2016 that were identified and forecasted by two real-time approaches: 1) the European Rainfall-Induced Hazard Assessment System (ERICHA) and 2) the European Runoff Index based on Climatology (ERIC). ERICHA is based on the nowcasts of accumulated precipitation generated from the pan-European radar composites produced by the EUMETNET project OPERA. It has the advantage of high-resolution precipitation inputs and rapidly updated forecasts (every 15 minutes), but limited forecast lead time (up to 8 hours). ERIC, on the other hand, provides 5-day forecasts based on the COSMO-LEPS NWP simulations updated 2 times a day but is only produced at a 7 km resolution. We compare the products from both systems and focus on showing the advantages, limitations and complementarities of ERICHA and ERIC for seamless high-resolution flash flood forecasting.

  14. Flash Flood Detection in Urban Cities Using Ultrasonic and Infrared Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa; Zhang, Xiangliang; Claudel, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the most common type of natural disaster. Often leading to loss of lives and properties in the thousands yearly. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the population density of cities. Since most flood casualties are caused by a lack of information on the impending flood (type, location, severity), sensing these events is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings and short term forecasts. However, no dedicated flash flood sensing systems, that could monitor the propagation of flash floods, in real time, currently exist in cities. In the present paper, firstly a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and traffic congestion has been presented. This sensing device is based on the combination of ultrasonic range-finding with remote temperature sensing, and can sense both phenomena with a high degree of accuracy, using a combination of L1-regularized reconstruction and artificial neural networks to process measurement data. Secondly, corresponding algorithms have been implemented on a low-power wireless sensor platform, and their performance in water level estimation in a 6 months test involving four different sensors is illustrated. The results demonstrate that urban water levels can be reliably estimated with error less than 2 cm, and that the preprocessing and machine learning schemes can run in real-time on currently available wireless sensor platforms.

  15. Flash Flood Detection in Urban Cities Using Ultrasonic and Infrared Sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa

    2016-07-19

    Floods are the most common type of natural disaster. Often leading to loss of lives and properties in the thousands yearly. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the population density of cities. Since most flood casualties are caused by a lack of information on the impending flood (type, location, severity), sensing these events is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings and short term forecasts. However, no dedicated flash flood sensing systems, that could monitor the propagation of flash floods, in real time, currently exist in cities. In the present paper, firstly a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and traffic congestion has been presented. This sensing device is based on the combination of ultrasonic range-finding with remote temperature sensing, and can sense both phenomena with a high degree of accuracy, using a combination of L1-regularized reconstruction and artificial neural networks to process measurement data. Secondly, corresponding algorithms have been implemented on a low-power wireless sensor platform, and their performance in water level estimation in a 6 months test involving four different sensors is illustrated. The results demonstrate that urban water levels can be reliably estimated with error less than 2 cm, and that the preprocessing and machine learning schemes can run in real-time on currently available wireless sensor platforms.

  16. Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the

  17. Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2012-01-01

    An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

  18. Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; Bodoque, José M.; Ballesteros, Juan A.

    2010-06-01

    Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash flood events during the last 50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

  19. Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-11-01

    In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

  20. Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

    2018-01-01

    An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic

  1. Flooding hazards from sea extremes and subsidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo; Vognsen, Karsten; Broge, Niels

    2015-01-01

    of tide gauge records, statistics that allow also for projections of SLR, meteorological variability, and extremes with a very low probability of occurrence are provided. Land movement is researched with a focus on short term surface height variability in the groundwater-ocean interface that, together...... with longer term processes, may cause substantial subsidence and impact future water management and adaptation strategies in flood prone coastal areas. Field studies’ results from repeated precise levelling, GPS setups, and ocean and groundwater level monitoring in Thyborøn and Aarhus are integrated...

  2. An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2012-02-01

    An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

  3. PAI-OFF: A new proposal for online flood forecasting in flash flood prone catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, G. H.; Cullmann, J.

    2008-10-01

    SummaryThe Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting (PAI-OFF) methodology combines the reliability of physically based, hydrologic/hydraulic modelling with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages are extremely low computation times and straightforward operation. The basic principle of the methodology is to portray process models by means of ANN. We propose to train ANN flood forecasting models with synthetic data that reflects the possible range of storm events. To this end, establishing PAI-OFF requires first setting up a physically based hydrologic model of the considered catchment and - optionally, if backwater effects have a significant impact on the flow regime - a hydrodynamic flood routing model of the river reach in question. Both models are subsequently used for simulating all meaningful and flood relevant storm scenarios which are obtained from a catchment specific meteorological data analysis. This provides a database of corresponding input/output vectors which is then completed by generally available hydrological and meteorological data for characterizing the catchment state prior to each storm event. This database subsequently serves for training both a polynomial neural network (PoNN) - portraying the rainfall-runoff process - and a multilayer neural network (MLFN), which mirrors the hydrodynamic flood wave propagation in the river. These two ANN models replace the hydrological and hydrodynamic model in the operational mode. After presenting the theory, we apply PAI-OFF - essentially consisting of the coupled "hydrologic" PoNN and "hydrodynamic" MLFN - to the Freiberger Mulde catchment in the Erzgebirge (Ore-mountains) in East Germany (3000 km 2). Both the demonstrated computational efficiency and the prediction reliability underline the potential of the new PAI-OFF methodology for online flood forecasting.

  4. The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa M. Modrick

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Small watersheds (O[25 km2] in the mountain regions of southern California comprise the study region. Study focus: This paper examines changes in flash flood occurrence in southern California resulting from projected climatic change. The methodology synthesizes elements of meteorological modeling, hydrology and geomorphology into an integrated modeling approach to define flash flood occurrence in a systematic and consistent way on a regional basis with high spatial and temporal resolution appropriate for flash flooding. A single climate model with three-dimensional atmospheric detail was used as input to drive simulations for historical and future periods. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate an increase in flash flood occurrence for the study region. For two distributed hydrologic models employed, the increase in flash flood occurrence frequency is on average between 30% and 40%. Regional flash flood occurrence is characterized by near saturation of the upper soil layer, and wider ranges in lower soil layer saturation and in precipitation. Overall, a decrease in the total number of precipitation events was found, although with increased precipitation intensity, increased event duration, and higher soil saturation conditions for the 21st century. This combination could signify more hazardous conditions, with fewer precipitation events but higher rainfall intensity and over soils with higher initial soil moisture saturation, leading to more frequent occurrence of flash floods. Keywords: Flash flooding, Climate change, Soil moisture, Precipitation, Distributed hydrologic modeling

  5. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Thouret , Jean-Claude; Enjolras , G.; Martelli , K.; Santoni , O.; Luque , A.; Nagata , M.; Arguedas , A.; Macedo , L.

    2013-01-01

    Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash fl...

  6. Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2012-11-01

    Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrell Estupina, V.; Raynaud, F.; Bourgeois, N.; Kong-A-Siou, L.; Collet, L.; Haziza, E.; Servat, E.

    2015-06-01

    Flash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. Regarding Mediterranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. Furthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. Therefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered. Physical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. However, they rarely match with the stakeholders' needs. In fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. To face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. These tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a GIS-based method (MARE) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. Then, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. The use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their reliability and interest for stakeholders. This study was realized on French Mediterranean basins, in close collaboration with the Flood Forecasting Services (SPC Med-Ouest, SCHAPI, municipalities).

  8. Development of a mobile app for flash flood alerting and data cataloging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Nguyen, M.

    2016-12-01

    No matter how accurate and specific a forecast of flash flooding is made, there are local nuances with the communities related to the built environment that often dictate the locations and magnitudes of impacts. These are difficult, if not impossible, to identify, classify, and measure using remote sensing methods. This presentation presents a Thriving Earth Exchange project that is developing a mobile app that serves two purposes. First, it will provide detailed forecasts of flash flooding down to the 1-km pixel scale with 10-min updates using the state-of-the-science hydrologic forecasting system called FLASH. The display of model outputs on an app will greatly facilitate their use and can potentially increase first responders' reactions to the specific locations of impending disasters. Then, the first responders will have the capability of reporting the geotagged impacts they are witnessing, including those local "trouble spots". Over time, we will catalog the trouble spots for the community so that they can be flagged in future events. If proven effective, the app will then be advertised in other flood-prone communities and the database will be expanded accordingly. In summary, we are engaging local communities to provide information that can inform and improve future forecasts of flash flood, ultimately reducing their impacts and saving lives.

  9. Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings based on the DFFG method in Yunnan province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, M.; Wang, H.; Chen, Y.; Tang, G.; Hong, Z.; Zhang, K.; Hong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods, one of the deadliest natural hazards worldwide due to their multidisciplinary nature, rank highly in terms of heavy damage and casualties. Such as in the United States, flash flood is the No.1 cause of death and the No. 2 most deadly weather-related hazard among all storm-related hazards, with approximately 100 lives lost each year. According to China Floods and Droughts Disasters Bullet in 2015 (http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/zgshzhgb), about 935 deaths per year on average were caused by flash floods from 2000 to 2015, accounting for 73 % of the fatalities due to floods. Therefore, significant efforts have been made toward understanding flash flood processes as well as modeling and forecasting them, it still remains challenging because of their short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This study advances the use of high-resolution Global Precipitation Measurement forecasts (GPMs), disaster data obtained from the government officials in 2011 and 2016, and the improved Distributed Flash Flood Guidance (DFFG) method combining the Distributed Hydrologic Model and Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. The objectives of this paper are (1) to examines changes in flash flood occurrence, (2) to estimate the effect of the rainfall spatial variability ,(2) to improve the lead time in flash floods warning and get the rainfall threshold, (3) to assess the DFFG method applicability in Dongchuan catchments, and (4) to yield the probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response that accounts for the locational uncertainties of the GPMs. Results indicate: (1) flash flood occurrence increased in the study region, (2) the occurrence of predicted flash floods show high sensitivity to total infiltration and soil water content, (3) the DFFG method is generally capable of making accurate predictions of flash flood events in terms of their locations and time of occurrence, and (4) the accumulative rainfall over a certain time span is an

  10. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  11. Reconstructing the 2015 Flash Flood event of Salgar Colombia, The Case of a Poor Gauged Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, N.; Zapata, E.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Velez, J. I.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods events associated with severe precipitation events are highly destructive, often resulting in significant human and economic losses. Due to their nature, flash floods trend to occur in medium to small basins located within complex high mountainous regions. In the Colombian Andean region these basins are very common, with the aggravating factor that the vulnerability is considerably high as some important human settlements are located within these basins, frequently occupating flood plains and other flash-flood prone areas. During the dawn of May 18 of 2015 two severe rainfall events generated a flash flood event in the municipality ofSalgar, La Liboriana basin, locatedin the northwestern Colombian Andes, resulting in more than 100 human casualties and significant economic losses. The present work is a reconstruction of the hydrological processes that took place before and during the Liboriana flash flood event, analyzed as a case of poorly gauged basin.The event conditions where recreated based on radar retrievals and a hydrological distributed model, linked with a proposed 1D hydraulic model and simple shallow landslide model. Results suggest that the flash flood event was caused by the occurrence of two successive severe convective events over the same basin, with an important modulation associated with soil characteristics and water storage.Despite of its simplicity, the proposed hydraulic model achieves a good representation of the flooded area during the event, with limitations due to the adopted spatial scale (12.7 meters, from ALOS PALSAR images). Observed landslides were obtained from satellite images; for this case the model simulates skillfully the landslide occurrence regions with small differences in the exact locations.To understand this case, radar data shows to be key due to specific convective cores location and rainfall intensity estimation.In mountainous regions, there exists a significant number of settlements with similar

  12. Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

    2009-04-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  13. Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

    2009-07-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  14. Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bihan Guillaume

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1 to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2 to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France. The first validation results are presented in terms of (1 accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2 relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance.

  15. A UAV based system for real time flash flood monitoring in desert environments using Lagrangian microsensors

    KAUST Repository

    Abdelkader, Mohamed

    2013-05-01

    Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, flash flood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Most casualties could be avoided with advance warning, for which real time monitoring is critical. While satellite-based high resolution weather forecasts can help predict floods to a certain extent, they are not reliable enough, as flood models depend on a large number of parameters that cannot be estimated beforehand. In this article, we present a novel flood sensing architecture to monitor large scale desert hydrological basins surrounding metropolitan areas, based on unmanned air vehicles. The system relies on Lagrangian (mobile) microsensors, that are released by a swarm of UAVs. A preliminary testbed implementing this technology is briefly described, and future research directions and problems are discussed. © 2013 IEEE.

  16. Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Koutroulis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min than the non-flood events (25 min, that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

  17. Homogeneous nonequilibrium critical flashing flow with a cavity flooding model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.Y.; Schrock, V.E.

    1989-01-01

    The primary purpose of the work presented here is to describe the model for pressure undershoot at incipient flashing in the critical flow of straight channels (Fanno-type flow) for subcooled or saturated stagnation conditions on a more physical basis. In previous models, a modification of the pressure undershoot prediction of Alamgir and Lienhard was used. Their method assumed nucleation occurs on the bounding walls as a result of molecular fluctuations. Without modification it overpredicts the pressure undershoot. In the present work the authors develop a mechanistic model for nucleation from wall cavities. This physical concept is more consistent with experimental data

  18. Improving Radar QPE's in Complex Terrain for Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Streubel, D. P.; Reynolds, D.

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain due to a combination of issues related to sampling. In particular, radar beams are often blocked or scan above the liquid precipitation zone while rain gauge density is often too low to properly characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. Due to poor radar coverage, rain gauge networks are used by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers as the principal source for QPE across the western U.S. The California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) uses point rainfall measurements and historical rainfall runoff relationships to derive river stage forecasts. The point measurements are interpolated to a 4 km grid using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to develop a gridded 6-hour QPE product (hereafter referred to as RFC QPE). Local forecast offices can utilize the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software to improve local QPE’s and thus local flash flood monitoring and prediction. MPE uses radar and rain gauge data to develop a combined QPE product at 1-hour intervals. The rain gauge information is used to bias correct the radar precipitation estimates so that, in situations where the rain gauge density and radar coverage are adequate, MPE can take advantage of the spatial coverage of the radar and the “ground truth” of the rain gauges to provide an accurate QPE. The MPE 1-hour QPE analysis should provide better spatial and temporal resolution for short duration hydrologic events as compared to 6-hour analyses. These hourly QPEs are then used to correct radar derived rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) software in forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. Although widely used by forecasters across the eastern U.S., MPE is not used extensively by the NWS in the west. Part of the reason for the lack of use of MPE across the west is that there has

  19. A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2014-05-01

    Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

  20. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  1. Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

    2017-01-01

    External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

  2. Reconstruction and numerical modelling of a flash flood event: Atrani 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciervo, F.; Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Bateman, A.

    2012-04-01

    The work intends to reproduce the flash-flood event that occurred in Atrani (Amalfi Coast - Southern Italy) on the 9 September 2010. In the days leading up to the event, intense low pressure system affected the North Europe attracting hot humid air masses from the Mediterranean areas and pushing them to the southern regions of Italy. These conditions contributed to the development of strong convective storm systems, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) type. The development of intense convective rain cells, over an extremely confined areas, leaded to a cumulative daily rainfall of 129.2 mm; the maximum precipitation in 1hr was 19.4mm. The Dragone river is artificially forced to flow underneath the urban estate of Atrani through a culvert until it finally flows out into the sea. In correspondence of the culvert inlet a minor fraction of the water discharge (5.9m^3/s), skimming over the channel cover, flowed on the street and invaded the village. The channelized flow generated overpressure involving the breaking of the cover of culvert slab and caused a new discharge inlet (20 m^3/s) on the street modifying the downstream flood dynamics. Information acquired, soon after the event, through the local people interviews and the field measurements significantly contributed to the rainfall event reconstruction and to the characterization of the induced effects. In absence of hydrometric data, the support of the amateur videos was of crucial importance for the hydraulic model development and calibration. A geomorphology based rainfall-runoff model, WFIUH type (Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Width Function), is implemented to extract the hydrograph of the hydrological event. All analysis are performed with GIS support basing on a Digital Terrain System (DTM) 5x5m. Two parameters have been used to calibrate the model: the average watershed velocity (Vmean = 0.08m/s) and hydrodynamic diffusivity (D=10E^-6 m^2/s). The model is calibrated basing on the peak discharge assessed value

  3. Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

    2017-12-01

    Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

  4. Improving the analysis of social component of flash-floods risk assessment: Application to urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque del Pozo, Jose Maria; Garcia Martin, Juan Antonio; Diez Herrero, Andres

    2016-04-01

    The increasing evidence of anthropogenic climate change, the respective intensification of extreme events as well as the increase in human exposure to natural hazards and their vulnerability show that the enhancement of strategies on how to reduce disaster risk and promote adaptation to extreme events is critical to increase resilience. Growing economic losses, high numbers of casualties and the disruption of livelihoods in various places of the world, at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Social vulnerability characterizes the predisposition of society to be afflicted by hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. Despite its importance, social vulnerability is often a neglected aspect of traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on economic and structural measures. The aim of this research is to identify those social characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazards, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is a Social Susceptibility Index (SSI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Analysis of demographic and socio-economic information provided by different public organisms. By adding exposure information to SSI, a Social and Infraestructure Flood Vulnerability Index (SIFVI) is created. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,226 km2). Townships that are included in this study meet two requirements: i) city centres are affected by an area where potential significant flash-flood risk exists (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01); ii) city centres are affected by an area with low

  5. Flash Flood Hazard Susceptibility Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Statistical Index Methods in Coalmine Subsidence Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on producing flash flood hazard susceptibility maps (FFHSM using frequency ratio (FR and statistical index (SI models in the Xiqu Gully (XQG of Beijing, China. First, a total of 85 flash flood hazard locations (n = 85 were surveyed in the field and plotted using geographic information system (GIS software. Based on the flash flood hazard locations, a flood hazard inventory map was built. Seventy percent (n = 60 of the flooding hazard locations were randomly selected for building the models. The remaining 30% (n = 25 of the flooded hazard locations were used for validation. Considering that the XQG used to be a coal mining area, coalmine caves and subsidence caused by coal mining exist in this catchment, as well as many ground fissures. Thus, this study took the subsidence risk level into consideration for FFHSM. The ten conditioning parameters were elevation, slope, curvature, land use, geology, soil texture, subsidence risk area, stream power index (SPI, topographic wetness index (TWI, and short-term heavy rain. This study also tested different classification schemes for the values for each conditional parameter and checked their impacts on the results. The accuracy of the FFHSM was validated using area under the curve (AUC analysis. Classification accuracies were 86.61%, 83.35%, and 78.52% using frequency ratio (FR-natural breaks, statistical index (SI-natural breaks and FR-manual classification schemes, respectively. Associated prediction accuracies were 83.69%, 81.22%, and 74.23%, respectively. It was found that FR modeling using a natural breaks classification method was more appropriate for generating FFHSM for the Xiqu Gully.

  6. Assessment of parameter regionalization methods for modeling flash floods in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Silvan; Zhou, Jian; Wang, Haijing

    2017-04-01

    Rainstorm flash floods are a common and serious phenomenon during the summer months in many hilly and mountainous regions of China. For this study, we develop a modeling strategy for simulating flood events in small river basins of four Chinese provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Beijing, Fujian). The presented research is part of preliminary investigations for the development of a national operational model for predicting and forecasting hydrological extremes in basins of size 10 - 2000 km2, whereas most of these basins are ungauged or poorly gauged. The project is supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research within the framework of the national initiative for flood prediction and early warning system for mountainous regions in China (research project SHZH-IWHR-73). We use the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the Java modeling framework Object Modeling System (OMS). PRMS can operate at both daily and storm timescales, switching between the two using a precipitation threshold. This functionality allows the model to perform continuous simulations over several years and to switch to the storm mode to simulate storm response in greater detail. The model was set up for fifteen watersheds for which hourly precipitation and runoff data were available. First, automatic calibration based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution method was applied to different hydrological response unit (HRU) configurations. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was used as assessment criteria, whereas only runoff data from storm events were considered. HRU configurations reflect the drainage-basin characteristics and depend on assumptions regarding drainage density and minimum HRU size. We then assessed the sensitivity of optimal parameters to different HRU configurations. Finally, the transferability to other watersheds of optimal model parameters that were not sensitive to HRU configurations was evaluated. Model calibration for the 15

  7. Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna Pivovarova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfortunately, most of river basins in Russia are poorly gauged or ungauged; besides, lack of hydrogeological data is quite typical. However, the developing economy and population safety necessitate issuing warnings based on reliable forecasts. For this purpose, a new hydrological model, MLCM3 (Multi-Layer Conceptual Model, 3 rd generation has been developed in the Russian State Hydrometeorological University. The model showed good results in more than 50 tested basins.

  8. FLASH-FLOOD MODELLING WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS USING RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu Cristian

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs in modelling the hydrological processes has become a common approach in the last two decades, among side the traditional methods. In regard to the rainfall-runoff modelling, in both traditional and ANN models the use of ground rainfall measurements is prevalent, which can be challenging in areas with low rain gauging station density, especially in catchments where strong focused rainfall can generate flash-floods. The weather radar technology can prove to be a solution for such areas by providing rain estimates with good time and space resolution. This paper presents a comparison between different ANN setups using as input both ground and radar observations for modelling the rainfall-runoff process for Bahluet catchment, with focus on a flash-flood observed in the catchment.

  9. Technical Note: Advances in flash flood monitoring using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Perks

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs have the potential to capture information about the earth's surface in dangerous and previously inaccessible locations. Through image acquisition of flash flood events and subsequent object-based analysis, highly dynamic and oft-immeasurable hydraulic phenomena may be quantified at previously unattainable spatial and temporal resolutions. The potential for this approach to provide valuable information about the hydraulic conditions present during dynamic, high-energy flash floods has until now not been explored. In this paper we adopt a novel approach, utilizing the Kande–Lucas–Tomasi (KLT algorithm to track features present on the water surface which are related to the free-surface velocity. Following the successful tracking of features, a method analogous to the vector correction method has enabled accurate geometric rectification of velocity vectors. Uncertainties associated with the rectification process induced by unsteady camera movements are subsequently explored. Geo-registration errors are relatively stable and occur as a result of persistent residual distortion effects following image correction. The apparent ground movement of immobile control points between measurement intervals ranges from 0.05 to 0.13 m. The application of this approach to assess the hydraulic conditions present in the Alyth Burn, Scotland, during a 1 : 200 year flash flood resulted in the generation of an average 4.2 at a rate of 508 measurements s−1. Analysis of these vectors provides a rare insight into the complexity of channel–overbank interactions during flash floods. The uncertainty attached to the calculated velocities is relatively low, with a spatial average across the area of ±0.15 m s−1. Little difference is observed in the uncertainty attached to out-of-bank velocities (±0.15 m s−1, and within-channel velocities (±0.16 m s−1, illustrating the consistency of the approach.

  10. Monitoring the variability of precipitable water vapor over the Klang Valley, Malaysia during flash flood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suparta, W; Rahman, R; Singh, M S J

    2014-01-01

    Klang Valley is a focal area of Malaysian economic and business activities where the local weather condition is very important to maintain its reputation. Heavy rainfalls for more than an hour were reported up to 40 mm in September 2013 and 35 mm in October 2013. Both events are monitored as the first and second cases of flash flood, respectively. Based on these cases, we investigate the water vapor, rainfall, surface meteorological data (surface pressure, relative humidity, and temperature) and river water level. The precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) is used to indicate the impact of flash flood on the rainfall. We found that PWV was dropped 4 mm in 2 hours before rainfall reached to 40 mm and dropped 3 mm in 3 hours before 35 mm of rainfall in respective cases. Variation of PWV was higher in September case compared to October case of about 2 mm. We suggest the rainfall phenomena can disturb the GPS propagation and therefore, the impact of PWV before, during and after the flash flood event at three selected GPS stations in Klang Valley is investigated for possible mitigation in the future

  11. Flash flood prediction in large dams using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Múnera Estrada, J. C.; García Bartual, R.

    2009-04-01

    A flow forecasting methodology is presented as a support tool for flood management in large dams. The practical and efficient use of hydrological real-time measurements is necessary to operate early warning systems for flood disasters prevention, either in natural catchments or in those regulated with reservoirs. In this latter case, the optimal dam operation during flood scenarios should reduce the downstream risks, and at the same time achieve a compromise between different goals: structural security, minimize predictions uncertainty and water resources system management objectives. Downstream constraints depend basically on the geomorphology of the valley, the critical flow thresholds for flooding, the land use and vulnerability associated with human settlements and their economic activities. A dam operation during a flood event thus requires appropriate strategies depending on the flood magnitude and the initial freeboard at the reservoir. The most important difficulty arises from the inherently stochastic character of peak rainfall intensities, their strong spatial and temporal variability, and the highly nonlinear response of semiarid catchments resulting from initial soil moisture condition and the dominant flow mechanisms. The practical integration of a flow prediction model in a real-time system should include combined techniques of pre-processing, data verification and completion, assimilation of information and implementation of real time filters depending on the system characteristics. This work explores the behaviour of real-time flood forecast algorithms based on artificial neural networks (ANN) techniques, in the River Meca catchment (Huelva, Spain), regulated by El Sancho dam. The dam is equipped with three Taintor gates of 12x6 meters. The hydrological data network includes five high-resolution automatic pluviometers (dt=10 min) and three high precision water level sensors in the reservoir. A cross correlation analysis between precipitation data

  12. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  13. Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

    2010-05-01

    Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk

  14. How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morss, Rebecca E.; Mulder, Kelsey J.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Demuth, Julie L.

    2016-10-01

    This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

  15. Characterization of a Mediterranean flash flood event using rain gauges, radar, GIS and lightning data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Barnolas

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood events are very common in Catalonia, generating a high impact on society, including losses in life almost every year. They are produced by the overflowing of ephemeral rivers in narrow and steep basins close to the sea. This kind of floods is associated with convective events producing high rainfall intensities. The aim of the present study is to analyse the 12–14 September 2006 flash flood event within the framework of the characteristics of flood events in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (IBC. To achieve this purpose all flood events occurred between 1996 and 2005 have been analysed. Rainfall and radar data have been introduced into a GIS, and a classification of the events has been done. A distinction of episodes has been made considering the spatial coverage of accumulated rainfall in 24 h, and the degree of the convective precipitation registered. The study case can be considered as a highly convective one, with rainfalls covering all the IBC on the 13th of September. In that day 215.9 mm/24 h were recorded with maximum intensities above 130 mm/h. A complete meteorological study of this event is also presented. In addition, as this is an episode with a high lightning activity it has been chosen to be studied into the framework of the FLASH project. In this way, a comparison between this information and raingauge data has been developed. All with the goal in mind of finding a relation between lightning density, radar echoes and amounts of precipitation. Furthermore, these studies improve our knowledge about thunderstorms systems.

  16. High Resolution Flash Flood Forecasting Using a Wireless Sensor Network in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartos, M. D.; Kerkez, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we develop and evaluate a high resolution urban flash flood monitoring system using a wireless sensor network (WSN), a real-time rainfall-runoff model, and spatially-explicit radar rainfall predictions. Flooding is the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities in the US, with flash flooding in particular responsible for a majority of flooding deaths. While many riverine flood models have been operationalized into early warning systems, there is currently no model that is capable of reliably predicting flash floods in urban areas. Urban flash floods are particularly difficult to model due to a lack of rainfall and runoff data at appropriate scales. To address this problem, we develop a wide-area flood-monitoring wireless sensor network for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, and use this network to characterize rainfall-runoff response over multiple heterogeneous catchments. First, we deploy a network of 22 wireless sensor nodes to collect real-time stream stage measurements over catchments ranging from 2-80 km2 in size. Next, we characterize the rainfall-runoff response of each catchment by combining stream stage data with gage and radar-based precipitation measurements. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for real-time flash flood prediction by joining the derived rainfall-runoff models with real-time radar rainfall predictions. We find that runoff response is highly heterogeneous among catchments, with large variabilities in runoff response detected even among nearby gages. However, when spatially-explicit rainfall fields are included, spatial variability in runoff response is largely captured. This result highlights the importance of increased spatial coverage for flash flood prediction.

  17. Extreme precipitation and floods in the Iberian Peninsula and its socio-economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Pereira, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula can induce floods and landslides that have often major socio-economic impacts. The DISASTER database gathered the basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015. This database was built under the assumption that social consequences of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported by newspapers, that provide the data source. Three extreme historical events were analysed in detail taking into account their associated wide socio-economic impacts. The December 1876 record precipitation and flood event leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers (Tagus and Guadiana). As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. The 20-28 December 1909 event recorded the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2015, having triggered the highest floods in 200 years at the Douro river's mouth and causing 89 fatalities in both Portugal and Spain northern regions. More recently the deadliest flash-flooding event affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities in the Lisbon region. We provide a detailed analysis of each of these events, including their human impacts, precipitation analyses based on historical datasets and the associated atmospheric circulation conditions from reanalysis datasets. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). The financial support for attending

  18. A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallozzi, Kyle J.

    Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi

  19. The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burges, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

  20. Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-11-01

    SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

  1. Progressive recovery of a tropical deforested stream community after a flash flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Cerqueira Marques

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available AIM: In this study, we evaluated and compared community attributes from a tropical deforested stream, located in a pasture area, in a period before (PRED I and three times after (POSD I, II, and III a flash flood, in order to investigate the existence of temporal modifications in community structure that suggests return to conditions previous to the flash flood. METHODS: Biota samples included algae, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish assemblages. Changes in stream physical structure we also evaluated. Similarity of the aquatic biota between pre and post-disturbance periods was examined by exploratory ordination, known as Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling associated with Cluster Analysis, using quantitative and presence/absence Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients. Presence and absence data were used for multivariate correlation analysis (Relate Analysis in order to investigate taxonomic composition similarity of biota between pre and post-disturbance periods. RESULTS: Our results evidenced channel simplification and an expressive decrease in richness and abundance of all taxa right after the flood, followed by subsequent increases of these parameters in the next three samples, indicating trends towards stream community recovery. Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients evidenced a greater community structure disparity among the period right after the flood and the subsequent ones. Multivariate correlation analysis evidenced a greater correlation between macroinvertebrates and algae/macrophytes, demonstrating the narrow relation between their recolonization dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Despite overall community structure tended to return to previous conditions, recolonization after the flood was much slower than that reported in literature. Finally, the remarkably high flood impact along with the slow recolonization could be a result of the historical presence of anthropic impacts in the region, such as siltation, riparian forest complete depletion

  2. Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally

  3. Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

    2017-09-01

    Among the natural hazards, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Flood risk management (FRM) in this context requires a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component. In this regard, integrated social vulnerability (ISV) can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience to total vulnerability, although these components are often disregarded. ISV is defined by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that condition a population's capacity to cope with, resist and recover from risk and can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). This study describes a methodological approach towards constructing the ISVI in urban areas prone to flash flooding in Castilla y León (Castile and León, northern central Spain, 94 223 km2, 2 478 376 inhabitants). A hierarchical segmentation analysis (HSA) was performed prior to the principal components analysis (PCA), which helped to overcome the sample size limitation inherent in PCA. ISVI was obtained from weighting vulnerability factors based on the tolerance statistic. In addition, latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) was carried out to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability within the study area. Our results show that the ISVI has high spatial variability. Moreover, the source of vulnerability in each urban area cluster can be identified from LCCA. These findings make it possible to design tailor-made strategies for FRM, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans and policies and helping to reduce the cost of mitigation measures.

  4. Flash!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Govert

    2002-04-01

    About three times a day our sky flashes with a powerful pulse of gamma ray bursts (GRB), invisible to human eyes but not to astronomers' instruments. The sources of this intense radiation are likely to be emitting, within the span of seconds or minutes, more energy than the sun will in its entire 10 billion years of life. Where these bursts originate, and how they come to have such incredible energies, is a mystery scientists have been trying to solve for three decades. The phenomenon has resisted study -- the flashes come from random directions in space and vanish without trace -- until very recently. In what could be called a cinematic conflation of Flash Gordon and The Hunt for Red October, Govert Schilling's Flash!: The Hunt for the Biggest Explosions in the Universe describes the exciting and ever-changing field of GRB research. Based on interviews with leading scientists, Flash! provides an insider's account of the scientific challenges involved in unravelling the enigmatic nature of GRBs. A science writer who has followed the drama from the very start, Schilling describes the ambition and jealousy, collegiality and competition, triumph and tragedy, that exists among those who have embarked on this recherche. Govert Schilling is a Dutch science writer and astronomy publicist. He is a contributing editor of Sky and Telescope magazine, and regularly writes for the news sections of Science and New Scientist. Schilling is the astronomy writer for de Volkskrant, one of the largest national daily newspapers in The Netherlands, and frequently talks about the Universe on Dutch radio broadcasts. He is the author of more than twenty popular astronomy books, and hundreds of newspaper and magazine articles on astronomy.

  5. A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

    2018-06-15

    Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

  7. The flash flood of October 2011 in the Magra River basin (Italy): rainstorm characterisation and flood response analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchi, Lorenzo; Boni, Giorgio; Cavalli, Marco; Comiti, Francesco; Crema, Stefano; Lucía, Ana; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide

    2013-04-01

    On 25 October 2011, the Magra River, a stream of northwest Italy outflowing into the Ligurian Sea, was affected by a flash flood, which caused severe economic damage and loss of lives. The catchment covers an area of 1717 km2, of which 605 km2 are drained by the Vara River, the major tributary of the Magra River. The flood was caused by an intense rainstorm which lasted approximately 20 hours. The most intense phase lasted about 8 hours, with rainfall amounts up to around 500 mm. The largest rainfall depths (greater than 300 mm) occurred in a narrow southwest - northeast oriented belt covering an area of approximately 400 km2. This flash flood was studied by analysing rainstorm characteristics, runoff response and geomorphic effects. The rainfall fields used in the analysis are based on data from the Settepani weather radar antenna (located at around 100 km from the study basin) and the local rain gauge network. Radar observations and raingauge data were merged to obtain rainfall estimates at 30 min with a resolution of 1 km2. River stage and discharge rating curves are available for few cross-sections on the main channels. Post-flood documentation includes the reconstruction of peak discharge by means of topographic surveys and application of the slope-conveyance method in 34 cross-sections, observations on the geomorphic effects of the event - both in the channel network and on the hillslopes - and the assessment of the timing of the flood based on interviews to eyewitnesses. Regional authorities and local administrations contributed to the documentation of the flood by providing hydrometeorological data, civil protection volunteers accounts, photos and videos recorded during and immediately after the flood. A spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model, fed with rainfall estimates obtained by the radar-derived observations, was used to check the consistency of field-derived peak discharges and to derive the time evolution of the flood. The assessment of unit

  8. Integration of social perception in flash flood risk management for resilience improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez-Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina-Cantos, Jorge

    2015-04-01

    Spain is, behind Switzerland, the second most mountainous country in Europe, which determines that after the occurrence of heavy or intense rainfall events, a fast hydrological response takes place due to steep slopes and strong hydrological connectivity. As a result, flash floods are, among natural hazards, the main social risk in Spain. In fact, they have provoked some of the greatest natural disasters in recent history of the country (e.g. Yebra and Almoguera in 1995, Biescas in 1996 or Badajoz in 1997, which totalized more than 200 deceased in the last decades). This work is focused on the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which we have been studying flash floods, under the consideration of different perspectives and using different approaches, for the past 20 years; and in which the regional government has recently approved the Civil Protection Plan.In this research, we examine social perception of flash floodsthrough surveys and interviews; one turn previous to the communication plan and other one after this dissemination activities to population. To this end, the individual and groupal differences were explored, by taking into account socio-demographic variables. In addition, we have considered psychological and material dimensions of vulnerability associated to flood risk, as well as to the emotional dimension through the consideration of psyco-environmental variables.Thus, this research aims to identify what aspects of the social perception differs from scientific/technical knowledge acquired which, in turn, may decrease the efficiency of a risk mitigation plan or even determine its failure. To minimize this lack of harmony, and at the same time to increase awareness of population, we propose a risk communication plan to improve preparedness of the community. To this end, we propose an approach in which messages reach the population quickly and in an understandable way. In this regard, risk communication is based on the integration of suitable

  9. Disaster management in flash floods in Leh (Ladakh: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preeti Gupta

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: On August 6, 2010, in the dark of the midnight, there were flash floods due to cloud burst in Leh in Ladakh region of North India. It rained 14 inches in 2 hours, causing loss of human life and destruction. The civil hospital of Leh was badly damaged and rendered dysfunctional. Search and rescue operations were launched by the Indian Army immediately after the disaster. The injured and the dead were shifted to Army Hospital, Leh, and mass casualty management was started by the army doctors while relief work was mounted by the army and civil administration. Objective: The present study was done to document disaster management strategies and approaches and to assesses the impact of flash floods on human lives, health hazards, and future implications of a natural disaster. Materials and Methods: The approach used was both quantitative as well as qualitative. It included data collection from the primary sources of the district collectorate, interviews with the district civil administration, health officials, and army officials who organized rescue operations, restoration of communication and transport, mass casualty management, and informal discussions with local residents. Results: 234 persons died and over 800 were reported missing. Almost half of the people who died were local residents (49.6% and foreigners (10.2%. Age-wise analysis of the deaths shows that the majority of deaths were reported in the age group of 25-50 years, accounting for 44.4% of deaths, followed by the 11-25-year age group with 22.2% deaths. The gender analysis showed that 61.5% were males and 38.5% were females. A further analysis showed that more females died in the age groups <10 years and ≥50 years. Conclusions: Disaster preparedness is critical, particularly in natural disasters. The Army′s immediate search, rescue, and relief operations and mass casualty management effectively and efficiently mitigated the impact of flash floods, and restored normal

  10. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  11. Optimisation of Lagrangian Flash Flood Microsensors Dropped by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

    KAUST Repository

    Abdulaal, Mohammed

    2014-05-01

    Abstract Physical Sciences and Engineering Division Mechanical Engineering Department Master of Science Optimisation of Lagrangian Flash Flood Microsensors Dropped by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle by Mohammed Abdulaal Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, ash ood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Classical sensing solutions such as xed wireless sensor networks or satellite imagery are either too expensive or too inaccurate. Nevertheless, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles equipped with mobile microsensors could be capable of sensing ash oods in real time for a low overall cost, saving lives and greatly improving the e ciency of the emergency response. Using ood simulation data, we show that this system could be used to detect ash oods. We also present an ongoing implementation of this system using 3D printed sensors and sensor delivery systems on a UAV testbed as well as some preliminary results.

  12. Use of geostationary meteorological satellite images in convective rain estimation for flash-flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardah, T.; Abu Bakar, S. H.; Bardossy, A.; Maznorizan, M.

    2008-07-01

    SummaryFrequent flash-floods causing immense devastation in the Klang River Basin of Malaysia necessitate an improvement in the real-time forecasting systems being used. The use of meteorological satellite images in estimating rainfall has become an attractive option for improving the performance of flood forecasting-and-warning systems. In this study, a rainfall estimation algorithm using the infrared (IR) information from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 (GMS-5) is developed for potential input in a flood forecasting system. Data from the records of GMS-5 IR images have been retrieved for selected convective cells to be trained with the radar rain rate in a back-propagation neural network. The selected data as inputs to the neural network, are five parameters having a significant correlation with the radar rain rate: namely, the cloud-top brightness-temperature of the pixel of interest, the mean and the standard deviation of the temperatures of the surrounding five by five pixels, the rate of temperature change, and the sobel operator that indicates the temperature gradient. In addition, three numerical weather prediction (NWP) products, namely the precipitable water content, relative humidity, and vertical wind, are also included as inputs. The algorithm is applied for the areal rainfall estimation in the upper Klang River Basin and compared with another technique that uses power-law regression between the cloud-top brightness-temperature and radar rain rate. Results from both techniques are validated against previously recorded Thiessen areal-averaged rainfall values with coefficient correlation values of 0.77 and 0.91 for the power-law regression and the artificial neural network (ANN) technique, respectively. An extra lead time of around 2 h is gained when the satellite-based ANN rainfall estimation is coupled with a rainfall-runoff model to forecast a flash-flood event in the upper Klang River Basin.

  13. Understanding processes that generate flash floods in the arid Judean Desert to the Dead Sea - a measurement network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, Hanna; Rödiger, Tino; Laronne, Jonathan B.; Geyer, Stefan; Merz, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods in (semi-) arid regions are fascinating in their suddenness and can be harmful for humans, infrastructure, industry and tourism. Generated within minutes, an early warning system is essential. A hydrological model is required to quantify flash floods. Current models to predict flash floods are often based on simplified concepts and/or on concepts which were developed for humid regions. To more closely relate such models to local conditions, processes within catchments where flash floods occur require consideration. In this study we present a monitoring approach to decipher different flash flood generating processes in the ephemeral Wadi Arugot on the western side of the Dead Sea. To understand rainfall input a dense rain gauge network was installed. Locations of rain gauges were chosen based on land use, slope and soil cover. The spatiotemporal variation of rain intensity will also be available from radar backscatter. Level pressure sensors located at the outlet of major tributaries have been deployed to analyze in which part of the catchment water is generated. To identify the importance of soil moisture preconditions, two cosmic ray sensors have been deployed. At the outlet of the Arugot water is sampled and level is monitored. To more accurately determine water discharge, water velocity is measured using portable radar velocimetry. A first analysis of flash flood processes will be presented following the FLEX-Topo concept .(Savenije, 2010), where each landscape type is represented using an individual hydrological model according to the processes within the three hydrological response units: plateau, desert and outlet. References: Savenije, H. H. G.: HESS Opinions "Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2681-2692, doi:10.5194/hess-14-2681-2010, 2010.

  14. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  15. Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-02-01

    This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

  16. A Flash Flood Study on the Small Montaneous River Catchments in Western Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Győri, Maria-Mihaela; Haidu, Ionel; Humbert, Joël

    2013-04-01

    The present study focuses on flash flood modeling on several mountaneous catchments situated in Western Romania by the use of two methodologies, when rainfall and catchment characteristics are known. Hence, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Method and the Rational Method will be employed for the generation of the 1%, 2% and 10% historical flash flood hydrographs on the basis of data spanning from 1989-2009. The SCS Method has been applied on the three gauged catchments in the study area: Petris, Troas and Monorostia making use of the existing interconnection between GIS and the rainfall-runoff models. The DEM, soil data and land use preprocessing in GIS allowed a determination of the hydrologic parameters needed for the rainfall-runoff model, with special emphasis on determining the time of concentration, Lag time and the weighted Curve Number according to Antecedent Moisture Conditions II, adapted for the Romanian territory. HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model (Hydrologic Engineering Center- Hydrologic Modeling System) facilitates the historical 1%, 2% and 10% flash flood hydrograph generation for the three afore mentioned watersheds. The model is calibrated against measured streamflow data from the three existing gauging stations. The results show a good match between the resulted hydrographs and the observed hydrographs under the form of the Peak Weighted Error RMS values. The hydrographs generated by surface runoff on the ungauged catchments in the area is based on an automation of a workflow in GIS, built with ArcGIS Model Builder graphical interface, as a large part of the functions needed were available as ArcGIS tools. The several components of this model calculate: the runoff depth in mm, the runoff coefficient, the travel time and finally the discharge module which is an application of the rational method, allowing the discharge computation for every cell within the catchment. The result consists of discharges for each isochrones that will be subsequently

  17. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to anthropogenic climate change in many regions of the world. The choice of adaptation strategies can and should be based on a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options...... presented is based on a flood risk framework that is in accordance with the EU flood directive, but adapted and extended to incorporate anticipated future changes due to city development and hydrologic extremes. The framework is used to study the importance of inherent uncertainties in order to find robust......-effective regardless of the uncertainties from climate change impacts and /or damage estimation procedure when considering the ability to reduce the risk of flooding. The description of the correlation structure between the key inputs proved to be important in order to obtain a correct description of the resulting...

  18. Meteorological analysis of flash floods in Artvin (NE Turkey on 24 August 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Baltaci

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available On 24 August 2015 intense rainfall episodes generated flash floods and landslides on the eastern Black Sea coast of Turkey. As a consequence of the heavy rainstorm activity over Artvin and its surroundings (NE Turkey, 11 people died and economic losses totaled a million dollars. Over the 6 h of the event (from 05:00 to 11:00 UTC, total accumulated rainfall amounts of 136, 64, and 109 mm were measured in the Hopa, Arhavi, and Borçka settlements of Artvin city, respectively. This study comprehensively investigates the meteorological characteristics of those flash floods. In terms of synoptic mechanisms, the cutoff surface low from the summer Asian monsoon settled over the eastern Black Sea. After two days of quasistationary conditions of this cyclone, sea surface temperatures (SSTs reached 27.5 °C (1.5 °C higher than normal and low-level moisture convergence developed. In addition, transfer of moisture by warm northerly flows from the Black Sea and relatively cool southerly flows from the land coasts of the Artvin district exacerbated the unstable conditions and thus played a significant role in the development of deep convective cells. Severe rainstorms as well as the slope instability of the region triggered landslides and worsened flood damages in the Artvin area. This study supports conventional weather analysis, satellite images, and forecast model output to alert forecasters to the potential for heavy rainfall.

  19. The use of geostationary satellite based rainfall estimation and rainfall-runoff modelling for regional flash flood assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Suseno, Dwi Prabowo Yuga

    2013-01-01

    The availability of rainfall triggered hazard information such as flash flood is crucial in the flood disaster management and mitigation. However, providing that information is mainly hampered by the shortage of data because of the sparse, uneven or absence the hydrological or meteorological observation. Remote sensing techniques that make frequent observations with continuous spatial coverage provide useful information for detecting the hydrometeorological phenomena such as rainfall and floo...

  20. THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMICAL LOSS CAUSED BY FLOODS AND FLASH-FLOODS BY USING COMPUTER TECHNIQUES. CASE STUDY: LOPĂTARI VILLAGE, SLĂNIC RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COSTACHE R.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to provide an example of the assessment of economical loss caused by floods and flash-floods, by integrating GIS techniques of hydraulic and hydrological modelling. The case study was performed in Lopătari village, which is located in the upper area of Slănic River, one of the most affected areas by floods and flash-floods. The flood event produced on 29.V.2012 was considered in order to perform this study. Thus, a flood hydrograph was simulated by using software HEC-HMS 3.5, based on hourly precipitation data from Bisoca meteorological station from 29.V.2012. The peak discharge resulting from the hydrological modelling software was used in HEC-RAS 4.1 hydraulic modelling software in order to determine the extent of flooding band, the number of the affected elements and the local economical loss. Finally, 21 flooded buildings were identified and 550 m of affected road, the estimated economical damage being about 800,000 RON.

  1. Feasibility of estimating generalized extreme-value distribution of floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira de Queiroz, Manoel Moises

    2004-01-01

    Flood frequency analysis by generalized extreme-value probability distribution (GEV) has found increased application in recent years, given its flexibility in dealing with the three asymptotic forms of extreme distribution derived from different initial probability distributions. Estimation of higher quantiles of floods is usually accomplished by extrapolating one of the three inverse forms of GEV distribution fitted to the experimental data for return periods much higher than those actually observed. This paper studies the feasibility of fitting GEV distribution by moments of linear combinations of higher order statistics (LH moments) using synthetic annual flood series with varying characteristics and lengths. As the hydrologic events in nature such as daily discharge occur with finite values, their annual maximums are expected to follow the asymptotic form of the limited GEV distribution. Synthetic annual flood series were thus obtained from the stochastic sequences of 365 daily discharges generated by Monte Carlo simulation on the basis of limited probability distribution underlying the limited GEV distribution. The results show that parameter estimation by LH moments of this distribution, fitted to annual flood samples of less than 100-year length derived from initial limited distribution, may indicate any form of extreme-value distribution, not just the limited form as expected, and with large uncertainty in fitted parameters. A frequency analysis, on the basis of GEV distribution and LH moments, of annual flood series of lengths varying between 13 and 73 years observed at 88 gauge stations on Parana River in Brazil, indicated all the three forms of GEV distribution.(Author)

  2. Spatial Scaling of Global Rainfall and Flood Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Xi, Chen; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Floods associated with severe storms are a significant source of risk for property, life and supply chains. These property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and spatial extent of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. High duration floods are typically induced by persistent rainfall (up to 30 day duration) as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Events related to persistent and recurrent rainfall appear to correspond to the persistence of specific global climate patterns that may be identifiable from global, historical data fields, and also from climate models that project future conditions. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the spatial manifestation of the rainfall exceedances and floods. We present the first ever results on a global analysis of the scaling characteristics of extreme rainfall and flood event duration, volumes and contiguous flooded areas as a result of large scale organization of long duration rainfall events. Results are organized by latitude and with reference to the phases of ENSO, and reveal surprising invariance across latitude. Speculation as to the potential relation to the dynamical factors is presented

  3. GIS-modelling of the spatial variability of flash flood hazard in Abu Dabbab catchment, Red Sea Region, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Abou El-Magd

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In the mountainous area of the Red Sea region in southeastern Egypt, the development of new mining activities or/and domestic infrastructures require reliable and accurate information about natural hazards particularly flash flood. This paper presents the assessment of flash flood hazards in the Abu Dabbab drainage basin. Remotely sensed data were used to delineate the alluvial active channels, which were integrated with morphometric parameters extracted from digital elevation models (DEM into geographical information systems (GIS to construct a hydrological model that provides estimates about the amount of surface runoff as well as the magnitude of flash floods. The peak discharge is randomly varied at different cross-sections along the main channel. Under consistent 10 mm rainfall event, the selected cross-section in middle of the main channel is prone to maximum water depth at 80 cm, which decreases to nearly 30 cm at the outlet due to transmission loss. The estimation of spatial variability of flow parameters within the catchment at different confluences of the constituting sub-catchments can be considered and used in planning for engineering foundations and linear infrastructures with the least flash flood hazard. Such information would, indeed, help decision makers and planning to minimize such hazards.

  4. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

  5. Flash-flood impacts cause changes in wood anatomy of Alnus glutinosa, Fraxinus angustifolia and Quercus pyrenaica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros, J A; Stoffel, M; Bollschweiler, M; Bodoque, J M; Díez-Herrero, A

    2010-06-01

    Flash floods may influence the development of trees growing on channel bars and floodplains. In this study, we analyze and quantify anatomical reactions to wounding in diffuse-porous (Alnus glutinosa L.) and ring-porous (Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl. and Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) trees in a Mediterranean environment. A total of 54 cross-sections and wedges were collected from trees that had been injured by past flash floods. From each of the samples, micro-sections were prepared at a tangential distance of 1.5 cm from the injury to determine wounding-related changes in radial width, tangential width and lumen of earlywood vessels, and fibers and parenchyma cells (FPC). In diffuse-porous A. glutinosa, the lumen area of vessels shows a significant (non-parametric test, P-value <0.05) decrease by almost 39% after wounding. For ring-porous F. angustifolia and Q. pyrenaica, significant decreases in vessel lumen area are observed as well by 59 and 42%, respectively. Radial width of vessels was generally more sensitive to the decrease than tangential width, but statistically significant values were only observed in F. angustifolia. Changes in the dimensions of earlywood FPC largely differed between species. While in ring-porous F. angustifolia and Q. pyrenaica the lumen of FPC dropped by 22 and 34% after wounding, we observed an increase in FPC lumen area in diffuse-porous A. glutinosa of approximately 35%. Our data clearly show that A. glutinosa represents a valuable species for flash-flood research in vulnerable Mediterranean environments. For this species, it will be possible in the future to gather information on past flash floods with non-destructive sampling based on increment cores. In ring-porous F. angustifolia and Q. pyrenaica, flash floods leave less drastic, yet still recognizable, signatures of flash-flood activity through significant changes in vessel lumen area. In contrast, the use of changes in FPC dimensions appears less feasible for the determination of

  6. Understanding Flash Flood Generation in the Arid Region of the Dead Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, R.; Hennig, H.; Rödiger, T.; Laronne, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    The arid region of the Dead Sea is prone by flash floods. Such flash floods in (semi-) arid regions are impressive. Generated within minutes, the peak unit discharge can be as high as 25 m³/s km². Floods are the main mechanism supplying water to alluvial aquifers, forming fluvial landscapes including canyons and often causing damage to humans, infrastructure, industry and tourism. Existing hydrological models in this region focus on peak discharges. However, these models are often based on simplified concepts and/or on concepts which were developed for humid regions. To more closely relate such models to local conditions, processes within catchments where floods occur require consideration. Therefore, a measurement network of rain gauges and level loggers to monitor runoff was installed in the beginning of the 2015/16 hydrological season in the tributaries of Wadi Arugot. The Arugot catchment is one of the largest ephemeral Wadis draining to the western shoreline of the Dead Sea at 450 m bsl. Due to the high gradient in elevation, the climate within the basin ranges from semiarid in the Judean Mountains, to hyper-arid near the Dead Sea with respective mean annual rainfall of 650 and 50 mm. The installed rain gauge network in the mountains is more dense compared to the Dead Sea area. Arid to semiarid catchments have different runoff generation processes compared to humid regions due local storm rainfall, low density of vegetation cover as well as patchy and shallow soil. These characteristics limit the contribution of groundwater flow, saturated overland flow and shallow subsurface flow, and therefore Hortonian overland flow is the most important contributor to overland flow. First analyses of the runoff data have shown that the storage capacity in the mountain area is lower compared to the more arid region. This is an evidence of high transmission losses in the coarse gravel wadi bed, therefore having a high permeability. The rain event duration and the amount of

  7. Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matingo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013–2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015–2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized

  8. A GIS-Based Model for the analysis of an urban flash flood and its hydro-geomorphic response. The Valencia event of 1957

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portugués-Mollá, I.; Bonache-Felici, X.; Mateu-Bellés, J. F.; Marco-Segura, J. B.

    2016-10-01

    Flash floods are recurrent events around the Mediterranean region. Extreme episodes activate hydro-geomorphic high-intensity processes with low frequency. In urban environments, the complexity becomes higher due to the existence of very quick-response runoff. However, immediate recovery works remove the urban marks. After a short time both the significance and magnitude of the hydro-geomorphic event become completely unrecognizable. Nevertheless, these episodes generate extensive documentation which is testimony of the processes in almost real time. It is necessary to exploit this source typology in order to draw flood sketches when events far in time may lack a sufficiently rich database. This is particularly the case for the Valencia flash flood (October 1957), located in the lower Turia River basin (Eastern Spain). It left numerous pieces of hydro-geomorphic evidence, but its tracks were covered a short while after the flood. In any case, it remains part of a non-systematic legacy that has not yet been exploited, consisting of immediate aerial and oblique high resolution photography, pictures at street level, water marks and administrative records. Paradoxically, despite being considered a milestone in metropolitan territorial planning (the river was definitely diverted), an accurate reconstruction of the hydraulic behaviour was required from an integrated point of view. To this aim, the development of a GIS-Based Model enabled the utilisation of the above-mentioned materials. This non-conventional information was treated jointly from a new perspective. It provided database support through a vast amount of organised, structured and georeferenced information about the 1957 event. In a second stage, the GBM made it possible to characterise the Turia urban reach and interpret both the hydro-geomorphic (trenches along barrier beaches, erosion, deposition, etc.) and hydraulic (urban streams along the streets, flow directions, flood extent, levees breaks, overflows

  9. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  10. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  11. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    events and flood risk in India. P Guhathakurta∗. , O P Sreejith and P A Menon. India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune 411 005, India. ∗ e-mail: pguhathakurta@rediffmail.com. The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to ...

  12. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping

    2015-05-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

  13. Flash flooding: Toward an Interdisciplinary and Integrated Strategy for Disaster Reduction in a Global Environmental Change Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, Isabelle

    2014-05-01

    How do people answer to heavy precipitation and flood warnings? How do they adapt their daily schedule and activity to the fast evolution of the environmental circumstances? More generally, how do social processes interact with physical ones? Such questions address the dynamical interactions between hydro-meteorological variables, human perception and representation of the environment, and actual individual and social behavioral responses. It also poses the question of scales and hierarchy issues through seamless interactions between smaller and larger scales. These questions are relevant for both social and physical scientists. They are more and more pertinently addressed in the Global Environmental Change perspective through the concepts of Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS), resilience or panarchy developped in the context of interdisciplinary collaborations. Nevertheless those concepts are complex and not easy to handle, specially when facing with operational goals. One of the main difficulty to advance these integrated approaches is the access to empirical data informing the processes at various scales. In fact, if physical and social processes are well studied by distinct disciplines, they are rarely jointly explored within similar spatial and temporal resolutions. Such coupled observation and analysis poses methodological challenges, specially when dealing with responses to short-fuse and extreme weather events. In fact, if such coupled approach is quite common to study large scale phenomenon like global change (for instance using historical data on green house gaz emissions and the evolution of temperatures worldwide), it is rarer for studing smaller nested sets of scales of human-nature systems where finer resolution data are sparse. Another problem arise from the need to produce comparable analysis on different case studies where social, physical and even cultural contexts may be diverse. Generic and robust framework for data collection, modeling

  14. Formation of fine sediment deposit from a flash flood river in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grifoll, Manel; Gracia, Vicenç; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Guillén, Jorge; Espino, Manuel; Warner, John C.

    2014-01-01

    We identify the mechanisms controlling fine deposits on the inner-shelf in front of the Besòs River, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. This river is characterized by a flash flood regime discharging large amounts of water (more than 20 times the mean water discharge) and sediment in very short periods lasting from hours to few days. Numerical model output was compared with bottom sediment observations and used to characterize the multiple spatial and temporal scales involved in offshore sediment deposit formation. A high-resolution (50 m grid size) coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport model was applied to the initial stages of the sediment dispersal after a storm-related flood event. After the flood, sediment accumulation was predominantly confined to an area near the coastline as a result of preferential deposition during the final stage of the storm. Subsequent reworking occurred due to wave-induced bottom shear stress that resuspended fine materials, with seaward flow exporting them toward the midshelf. Wave characteristics, sediment availability, and shelf circulation determined the transport after the reworking and the final sediment deposition location. One year simulations of the regional area revealed a prevalent southwestward average flow with increased intensity downstream. The circulation pattern was consistent with the observed fine deposit depocenter being shifted southward from the river mouth. At the southern edge, bathymetry controlled the fine deposition by inducing near-bottom flow convergence enhancing bottom shear stress. According to the short-term and long-term analyses, a seasonal pattern in the fine deposit formation is expected.

  15. On the monitoring and prediction of flash floods in small and medium-sized catchments - the EXTRUSO project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiemann, Stefan; Eltner, Anette; Sardemann, Hannes; Spieler, Diana; Singer, Thomas; Thanh Luong, Thi; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels; Bernard, Lars; Bernhofer, Christian; Maas, Hans-Gerd

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods regularly cause severe socio-economic damage worldwide. In parallel, climate change is very likely to increase the number of such events, due to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events (EASAC 2013). Whereas recent work primarily addresses the resilience of large catchment areas, the major impact of hydro-meteorological extremes caused by heavy precipitation is on small areas. Those are very difficult to observe and predict, due to sparse monitoring networks and only few means for hydro-meteorological modelling, especially in small catchment areas. The objective of the EXTRUSO project is to identify and implement appropriate means to close this gap by an interdisciplinary approach, combining comprehensive research expertise from meteorology, hydrology, photogrammetry and geoinformatics. The project targets innovative techniques for achieving spatio-temporal densified monitoring and simulations for the analysis, prediction and warning of local hydro-meteorological extreme events. The following four aspects are of particular interest: 1. The monitoring, analysis and combination of relevant hydro-meteorological parameters from various sources, including existing monitoring networks, ground radar, specific low-cost sensors and crowdsourcing. 2. The determination of relevant hydro-morphological parameters from different photogrammetric sensors (e.g. camera, laser scanner) and sensor platforms (e.g. UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) and UWV (unmanned water vehicle)). 3. The continuous hydro-meteorological modelling of precipitation, soil moisture and water flows by means of conceptual and data-driven modelling. 4. The development of a collaborative, web-based service infrastructure as an information and communication point, especially in the case of an extreme event. There are three major applications for the planned information system: First, the warning of local extreme events for the population in potentially affected areas, second, the support

  16. The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods

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    M. Šálek

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min, then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation. Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.

  17. Natural hazards on alluvial fans: the debris flow and flash flood disaster of December 1999, Vargas state, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Matthew C.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Eaton, L.S.; Torres-Sierra, Heriberto; Sylva, Walter F.

    2001-01-01

    Large populations live on or near alluvial fans in locations such as Los Angeles, California, Salt Lake City, Utah, Denver, Colorado, and lesser known areas such as Sarno, Italy, and Vargas, Venezuela. Debris flows and flash floods occur episodically in these alluvial fan environments, and place many communities at high risk during intense and prolonged rainfall. In December 1999, rainstorms induced thousands of landslides along the Cordillera de la Costa, Vargas, Venezuela. Rainfall accumulation of 293 mm during the first 2 weeks of December was followed by an additional 911 mm of rainfall on December 14 through 16. Debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities resulting in a catastrophic death toll of as many as 30,000 people. Flash floods and debris flows caused severe property destruction on alluvial fans at the mouths of the coastal mountain drainage network. In time scales spanning thousands of years, the alluvial fans along this Caribbean coastline are dynamic zones of high geomorphic activity. Because most of the coastal zone in Vargas consists of steep mountain fronts that rise abruptly from the Caribbean Sea, the alluvial fans provide practically the only flat areas upon which to build. Rebuilding and reoccupation of these areas requires careful determination of hazard zones to avoid future loss of life and property. KEY TERMS: Debris flows, flash floods, alluvial fans, natural hazards, landslides, Venezuela

  18. Rainfall estimation in the context of post-event flash flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delrieu, Guy; Boudevillain, Brice; Bouilloud, Ludovic

    2010-05-01

    Due to their spatial coverage and space-time resolution, operational weather radar networks offer unprecedented opportunities for the observation of flash flood generating storms. However, the radar rainfall estimation quality highly depends on the relative locations of the event and the radar(s). A mountainous environment obviously adds to the complexity of the radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). A pragmatic methodology was developed within the EC-funded HYDRATE project to take the best benefit of the existing rainfall observations (radar and raingauge data) for given flash-flood cases: 1) A precise documentation of the radar characteristics (location, parameters, operating protocol, data archives and processing) needs first to be established. The radar(s) detection domain(s) can then be characterized using the "hydrologic visibility" concepts (Pellarin et al. J Hydrometeor 3(5) 539-555 2002). 2) Rather dense raingauge observations (operational, amateur) are usually available at the event time scale while few raingauge time series exist at the hydrologic time steps. Such raingauge datasets need to be critically analysed; a geostatistical approach is proposed for this task. 3) A number of identifications can be implemented prior to the radar data re-processing: a) Special care needs to be paid to (residual) ground clutter which has a dramatic impact of radar QPE. Dry-weather maps and rainfall accumulation maps may help in this task. b) Various sources of power losses such as screening, wet radome, attenuation in rain need to be identified and quantified. It will be shown that mountain returns can be used to quantify attenuation effects at C-band. c) Radar volume data is required to characterize the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), eventually conditioned on rain type (convective, widespread). When such data is not available, knowledge of the 0°C isotherm and the scanning protocol may help detecting bright-band contaminations that critically

  19. A hydro-sedimentary modeling system for flash flood propagation and hazard estimation under different agricultural practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, N. N.; Karatzas, G. P.

    2014-03-01

    A modeling system for the estimation of flash flood flow velocity and sediment transport is developed in this study. The system comprises three components: (a) a modeling framework based on the hydrological model HSPF, (b) the hydrodynamic module of the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi-2-D), and (c) the advection-dispersion module of MIKE 11 as a sediment transport model. An important parameter in hydraulic modeling is the Manning's coefficient, an indicator of the channel resistance which is directly dependent on riparian vegetation changes. Riparian vegetation's effect on flood propagation parameters such as water depth (inundation), discharge, flow velocity, and sediment transport load is investigated in this study. Based on the obtained results, when the weed-cutting percentage is increased, the flood wave depth decreases while flow discharge, velocity and sediment transport load increase. The proposed modeling system is used to evaluate and illustrate the flood hazard for different riparian vegetation cutting scenarios. For the estimation of flood hazard, a combination of the flood propagation characteristics of water depth, flow velocity and sediment load was used. Next, a well-balanced selection of the most appropriate agricultural cutting practices of riparian vegetation was performed. Ultimately, the model results obtained for different agricultural cutting practice scenarios can be employed to create flood protection measures for flood-prone areas. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of a small Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece.

  20. Combining hydraulic model, hydrogeomorphological observations and chemical analyses of surface waters to improve knowledge on karst flash floods genesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Raynaud

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available During a flood event over a karst watershed, the connections between surface and ground waters appear to be complex ones. The karst may attenuate surface floods by absorbing water or contribute to the surface flood by direct contribution of karst waters in the rivers (perennial and overflowing springs and by diffuse resurgence along the hillslopes. If it is possible to monitor each known outlet of a karst system, the diffuse contribution is yet difficult to assess. Furthermore, all these connections vary over time according to several factors such as the water content of the soil and underground, the rainfall characteristics, the runoff pathways. Therefore, the contribution of each compartment is generally difficult to assess, and flood dynamics are not fully understood. To face these misunderstandings and difficulties, we analysed surface waters during six recent flood events in the Lirou watershed (a karst tributary of the Lez, in South of France. Because of the specific chemical signature of karst waters, chemical analyses can supply information about water pathways and flood dynamics. Then, we used the dilution law to combine chemical results, flow data and field observations to assess the dynamics of the karst component of the flood. To end, we discussed the surface or karst origin of the waters responsible for the apparent runoff coefficient rise during flash karst flood.

  1. Element Geochemical Analysis of the Contribution of Aeolian Sand to Suspended Sediment in Desert Stream Flash Floods

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    Xiaopeng Jia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of wind and water in semiarid and arid areas usually leads to low-frequency flash flood events in desert rivers, which have adverse effects on river systems and ecology. In arid zones, many aeolian dune-fields terminate in stream channels and deliver aeolian sand to the channels. Although aeolian processes are common to many desert rivers, whether the aeolian processes contribute to fluvial sediment loss is still unknown. Here, we identified the aeolian-fluvial cycling process responsible for the high rate of suspended sediment transport in the Sudalaer desert stream in the Ordos plateau of China. On the basis of element geochemistry data analysis, we found that aeolian sand was similar to suspended sediment in element composition, which suggests that aeolian sand contributes to suspended sediment in flash floods. Scatter plots of some elements further confirm that aeolian sand is the major source of the suspended sediment. Factor analysis and the relation between some elements and suspended sediment concentration prove that the greater the aeolian process, the higher the suspended sediment concentration and the greater the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment yield. We conclude that aeolian sand is the greatest contributor to flash floods in the Sudalaer desert stream.

  2. Element geochemical analysis of the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment in desert stream flash floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xiaopeng; Wang, Haibing

    2014-01-01

    The interaction of wind and water in semiarid and arid areas usually leads to low-frequency flash flood events in desert rivers, which have adverse effects on river systems and ecology. In arid zones, many aeolian dune-fields terminate in stream channels and deliver aeolian sand to the channels. Although aeolian processes are common to many desert rivers, whether the aeolian processes contribute to fluvial sediment loss is still unknown. Here, we identified the aeolian-fluvial cycling process responsible for the high rate of suspended sediment transport in the Sudalaer desert stream in the Ordos plateau of China. On the basis of element geochemistry data analysis, we found that aeolian sand was similar to suspended sediment in element composition, which suggests that aeolian sand contributes to suspended sediment in flash floods. Scatter plots of some elements further confirm that aeolian sand is the major source of the suspended sediment. Factor analysis and the relation between some elements and suspended sediment concentration prove that the greater the aeolian process, the higher the suspended sediment concentration and the greater the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment yield. We conclude that aeolian sand is the greatest contributor to flash floods in the Sudalaer desert stream.

  3. Impact of floods induced by extreme precipitation events on public health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios

    2017-04-01

    Hydrometeorological disasters comprise the most reported type of natural disaster, and floods account for the majority of disasters in this category in both developed and developing countries. Flooding can lead to extensive morbidity and mortality and pose multiple risks to public health throughout the world. This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 124 research publications related to public health impact of 98 floods that occurred globally (Oceania 4, Africa 9, America 22, Europe 24, Asia 39) from 1942 to 2014. The inclusion criteria were literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, natural disaster type including floods induced after extreme precipitation events (accumulation of rainwater in poorly-drained environments, riverine and flash floods), population type including humans, and outcome measure characterized by infectious diseases (ID) incidence increase. The potential post-flood ID are classified into 13 groups including rodent-borne (reported in 38 of the total 98 events, 38.78%), water-borne (33, 33.67%), vector-borne (25, 25.51%), respiratory (19, 19.39%), fecal-oral (14, 14.29%), skin (9, 9.18%), blood-borne (4, 4.08%), eye (3, 3.06%), soil-related (3, 3.06%), ear (2, 2.04%), fungal (1, 1.02%) and wound-borne (1, 1.02%) ID. Based on available age and genre data, it is concluded that the most vulnerable population groups are predominantly young children (age ≤ 5 years) and male. The most fatal post-flood ID are leptospirosis and diarrhea followed by respiratory tract infections. The detected risk factors include (1) poor economic status and living in flood prone areas, (2) destruction of infrastructures, disruption of public utilities and interruption of basic public health services such as vector control programs, (3) direct physical exposure to sewage-polluted flood water, (4) lack of adequate potable water and water-supply from contaminated ponds and tube wells along with lack of distribution of

  4. Rapid proliferation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae during freshwater flash floods in French Mediterranean coastal lagoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteves, Kevin; Hervio-Heath, Dominique; Mosser, Thomas; Rodier, Claire; Tournoud, Marie-George; Jumas-Bilak, Estelle; Colwell, Rita R; Monfort, Patrick

    2015-11-01

    Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae of the non-O1/non-O139 serotype are present in coastal lagoons of southern France. In these Mediterranean regions, the rivers have long low-flow periods followed by short-duration or flash floods during and after heavy intense rainstorms, particularly at the end of the summer and in autumn. These floods bring large volumes of freshwater into the lagoons, reducing their salinity. Water temperatures recorded during sampling (15 to 24°C) were favorable for the presence and multiplication of vibrios. In autumn 2011, before heavy rainfalls and flash floods, salinities ranged from 31.4 to 36.1‰ and concentrations of V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, and V. cholerae varied from 0 to 1.5 × 10(3) most probable number (MPN)/liter, 0.7 to 2.1 × 10(3) MPN/liter, and 0 to 93 MPN/liter, respectively. Following heavy rainstorms that generated severe flash flooding and heavy discharge of freshwater, salinity decreased, reaching 2.2 to 16.4‰ within 15 days, depending on the site, with a concomitant increase in Vibrio concentration to ca. 10(4) MPN/liter. The highest concentrations were reached with salinities between 10 and 20‰ for V. parahaemolyticus, 10 and 15‰ for V. vulnificus, and 5 and 12‰ for V. cholerae. Thus, an abrupt decrease in salinity caused by heavy rainfall and major flooding favored growth of human-pathogenic Vibrio spp. and their proliferation in the Languedocian lagoons. Based on these results, it is recommended that temperature and salinity monitoring be done to predict the presence of these Vibrio spp. in shellfish-harvesting areas of the lagoons. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  5. Moisture Sources and Large-Scale Dynamics Associated with a Flash Flood Event in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Trigo, Isabel F.; María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Nieto, Raquel; Gimeno, Luis

    2013-04-01

    On 18-19 November 1983, the region of Lisbon, in Portugal, was affected by a heavy precipitation event, soon followed by flash flooding, urban inundations and a burst of landslides around Lisbon [Zêzere et al., 2005] causing considerable infrastructure damage and human fatalities. With a total of 95.6 mm in 24 h observed at the longest serving station in Portugal (Lisbon's Dom Luiz Observatory), this was the rainiest day during the twentieth century and one of the rainiest registered since 1864. We found that this event was triggered by the transport of tropical and subtropical moisture associated with an extratropical cyclone. The low favored a large stream of (sub) tropical air that extended over more than 10° of latitude and across the North Atlantic Ocean, carrying a large amount of moisture originally from lower latitudes, a so-called atmospheric river. The stationary position of the jet stream along the East Atlantic Ocean through Iberia caused a strong enhancement of the precipitation associated with the moist air. A Lagrangian analysis of the transport of moisture in the Euro-Atlantic sector was performed based on the methodology developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], using the FLEXPART model. This Lagrangian methodology was employed to show that the evaporative sources for the precipitation falling over the area of Lisbon were distributed over large sectors of the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean and included a significant contribution from the (sub) tropics. This study [Liberato et al., 2012] aims to provide an example of the application of distinct Lagrangian techniques to achieve a better understanding of the relation between extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of a heavy precipitation event on the Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) Programme and by national funds

  6. Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information

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    D. Fuentes-Andino

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies for the prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesized that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way considering large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed from a combination of models and post-event measured data. Post-event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peak, and high-water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well-known modelling tools: TOPMODEL, Muskingum–Cunge–Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE uncertainty-analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks, and more than 90 % of the observed high-water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high-water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. Identifications of these locations are useful to improve model set-up, model structure, or post-event data-estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from radar data or a denser rain-gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post-event data, to reasonably reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event. The method proposed here can be part of a Bayesian framework in which more events

  7. Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

  8. An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture–data assimilation

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    L. Cenci

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture–data assimilation, SM–DA into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM–DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer – ASCAT, characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1 mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM–DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014–February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM–DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM–DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be

  9. An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture-data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Pulvirenti, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Gabellani, Simone; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno

    2017-11-01

    The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture-data assimilation, SM-DA) into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM-DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer - ASCAT), characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1) mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM) at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM-DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum) that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014-February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i) revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM-DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii) suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii) highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM-DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be supported by further

  10. Comparison Of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates Derived From Rain Gauge And Radar Derived Algorithms For Operational Flash Flood Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streubel, D. P.; Kodama, K.

    2014-12-01

    To provide continuous flash flood situational awareness and to better differentiate severity of ongoing individual precipitation events, the National Weather Service Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) is being implemented over Hawaii and Alaska. In the implementation process of RDHM, three gridded precipitation analyses are used as forcing. The first analysis is a radar only precipitation estimate derived from WSR-88D digital hybrid reflectivity, a Z-R relationship and aggregated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid. The second analysis is derived from a rain gauge network and interpolated into an hourly ¼ HRAP grid using PRISM climatology. The third analysis is derived from a rain gauge network where rain gauges are assigned static pre-determined weights to derive a uniform mean areal precipitation that is applied over a catchment on a ¼ HRAP grid. To assess the effect of different QPE analyses on the accuracy of RDHM simulations and to potentially identify a preferred analysis for operational use, each QPE was used to force RDHM to simulate stream flow for 20 USGS peak flow events. An evaluation of the RDHM simulations was focused on peak flow magnitude, peak flow timing, and event volume accuracy to be most relevant for operational use. Results showed RDHM simulations based on the observed rain gauge amounts were more accurate in simulating peak flow magnitude and event volume relative to the radar derived analysis. However this result was not consistent for all 20 events nor was it consistent for a few of the rainfall events where an annual peak flow was recorded at more than one USGS gage. Implications of this indicate that a more robust QPE forcing with the inclusion of uncertainty derived from the three analyses may provide a better input for simulating extreme peak flow events.

  11. A case study on the diagnosis and consequences of flash floods in south-western Romania: The upper basin of Desnatui River

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    Morosanu Gabriela Adina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the flash floods that may appear in a representative river basin occupying the south-western Romania and also feature an example of the most recent flash flood from 2005-2006, more specifically, its causes and consequences. In order to accomplish the objectives, hydrological data were used to identify the characteristics of the floods. Finally, the case study of the flash flood was delivered through the field research, observational method, discussion with the authorities and investigation of the meteorological and hydrological available data. The research offers an insight on the dimension of damages triggered by a flash flood event, based on the statistical data provided by the village hall and the few remaining places preserving the traces of the floods (houses, bridges. Because we could not provide all the necessary data in order to determine the frequency and scale of such risk phenomena, the analysis is assessed on general hydrological statistics of flood events between 1964 to 2011. By leading the research, it resulted that the specific feature of the upper basin of Desnatui River is its temporary drainage and that in the periods of high flow, the capacity of the river channels is diminshed and the floods may occur. The paper succeeds to revive the insufficient scientific concerns on this kind of hydrological risks issued in the space occupied by the upper basin of Desnatui River and eventually, to supply the need for such study in the context of modern hydrological research preoccupations.

  12. Long-term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilg, Christiane; Dziock, Frank; Foeckler, Francis; Follner, Klaus; Gerisch, Michael; Glaeser, Judith; Rink, Anke; Schanowski, Arno; Scholz, Mathias; Deichner, Oskar; Henle, Klaus

    2008-09-01

    Extreme summertime flood events are expected to become more frequent in European rivers due to climate change. In temperate areas, where winter floods are common, extreme floods occurring in summer, a period of high physiological activity, may seriously impact floodplain ecosystems. Here we report on the effects of the 2002 extreme summer flood on flora and fauna of the riverine grasslands of the Middle Elbe (Germany), comparing pre- and post-flooding data collected by identical methods. Plants, mollusks, and carabid beetles differed considerably in their response in terms of abundance and diversity. Plants and mollusks, displaying morphological and behavioral adaptations to flooding, showed higher survival rates than the carabid beetles, the adaptation strategies of which were mainly linked to life history. Our results illustrate the complexity of responses of floodplain organisms to extreme flood events. They demonstrate that the efficiency of resistance and resilience strategies is widely dependent on the mode of adaptation.

  13. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  14. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Moncoulon, David; Pons, Frédéric

    2017-11-01

    Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall-runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes - typically discharges or return periods - at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies). The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall-runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

  15. The challenge of forecasting impacts of flash floods: test of a simplified hydraulic approach and validation based on insurance claim data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Le Bihan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Up to now, flash flood monitoring and forecasting systems, based on rainfall radar measurements and distributed rainfall–runoff models, generally aimed at estimating flood magnitudes – typically discharges or return periods – at selected river cross sections. The approach presented here goes one step further by proposing an integrated forecasting chain for the direct assessment of flash flood possible impacts on inhabited areas (number of buildings at risk in the presented case studies. The proposed approach includes, in addition to a distributed rainfall–runoff model, an automatic hydraulic method suited for the computation of flood extent maps on a dense river network and over large territories. The resulting catalogue of flood extent maps is then combined with land use data to build a flood impact curve for each considered river reach, i.e. the number of inundated buildings versus discharge. These curves are finally used to compute estimated impacts based on forecasted discharges. The approach has been extensively tested in the regions of Alès and Draguignan, located in the south of France, where well-documented major flash floods recently occurred. The article presents two types of validation results. First, the automatically computed flood extent maps and corresponding water levels are tested against rating curves at available river gauging stations as well as against local reference or observed flood extent maps. Second, a rich and comprehensive insurance claim database is used to evaluate the relevance of the estimated impacts for some recent major floods.

  16. Vulnerability Situations associated with Flash Flood Casualties in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terti, G.; Ruin, I.; Anquetin, S.; Gourley, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    In the United States (U.S.) flash flooding (FF hereafter) is one of the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Because FF events can be distinguished from riverine floods by their fast response to rainfall and resulting impacts signature, analyzing FF-specific impact datasets seems a good way to identify the juxtaposition of social and physical circumstances leading to those impacts. This communication focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing testing hypotheses on FF-specific vulnerability factors through the analysis of human impact datasets. We hypothesize that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the FF phenomena with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals various paths of vulnerability through the expression of different accidents' circumstances (i.e., vehicle-related, inside buildings, open-air, campsites). We argue that vulnerability and the resulting impacts vary dynamically throughout the day according to the location/situation under concern. In order to test FF-specific contextual vulnerability factors at the scale of the continental US, 1075 fatalities reported between 1996 and 2014 in the Storm Data publication of the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are analyzed to statistically explore the timing, the duration and the location of the FF event, and the age and gender of the victims and the circumstance (i.e. location/activity) of their death. In this objective, a re-classification of the individual fatality circumstances and a discretization of the time in qualitative time-steps are performed to obtain possible trends and patterns in the occurrence of fatalities in certain circumstances and time (e.g., day vs night). The findings highlight the importance of situation-specific assessment of FF fatalities to guide the development of FF-specific vulnerability and impacts prediction modeling. Such analysis can provide valuable knowledge when the National Weather

  17. Operational Precipitation prediction in Support of Real-Time Flash Flood Prediction and Reservoir Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, K. P.

    2006-05-01

    The presentation will outline the implementation and performance evaluation of a number of national and international projects pertaining to operational precipitation estimation and prediction in the context of hydrologic warning systems and reservoir management support. In all cases, uncertainty measures of the estimates and predictions are an integral part of the precipitation models. Outstanding research issues whose resolution is likely to lead to improvements in the operational environment are presented. The presentation draws from the experience of the Hydrologic Research Center (http://www.hrc-lab.org) prototype implementation projects at the Panama Canal, Central America, Northern California, and South-Central US. References: Carpenter, T.M, and K.P. Georgakakos, "Discretization Scale Dependencies of the Ensemble Flow Range versus Catchment Area Relationship in Distributed Hydrologic Modeling," Journal of Hydrology, 2006, in press. Carpenter, T.M., and K.P. Georgakakos, "Impacts of Parametric and Radar Rainfall Uncertainty on the Ensemble Streamflow Simulations of a Distributed Hydrologic Model," Journal of Hydrology, 298, 202-221, 2004. Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.E., Carpenter, T.M., Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, "Integrating Climate- Hydrology Forecasts and Multi-Objective Reservoir Management in Northern California," EOS, 86(12), 122,127, 2005. Georgakakos, K.P., and J.A. Sperfslage, "Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed," in The Rio Chagres: A Multidisciplinary Profile of a Tropical Watershed, R.S. Harmon, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, Chapter 16, 323-334, 2005. Georgakakos, K. P., "Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance," Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.009, 2005.

  18. Impacts of extreme flooding on riverbank filtration water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M J; Lapworth, D J; Gooddy, D C; Sage, R C; Karapanos, I

    2016-06-01

    Riverbank filtration schemes form a significant component of public water treatment processes on a global level. Understanding the resilience and water quality recovery of these systems following severe flooding is critical for effective water resources management under potential future climate change. This paper assesses the impact of floodplain inundation on the water quality of a shallow aquifer riverbank filtration system and how water quality recovers following an extreme (1 in 17 year, duration >70 days, 7 day inundation) flood event. During the inundation event, riverbank filtrate water quality is dominated by rapid direct recharge and floodwater infiltration (high fraction of surface water, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) >140% baseline values, >1 log increase in micro-organic contaminants, microbial detects and turbidity, low specific electrical conductivity (SEC) 400% baseline). A rapid recovery is observed in water quality with most floodwater impacts only observed for 2-3 weeks after the flooding event and a return to normal groundwater conditions within 6 weeks (lower fraction of surface water, higher SEC, lower DOC, organic and microbial detects, DO). Recovery rates are constrained by the hydrogeological site setting, the abstraction regime and the water quality trends at site boundary conditions. In this case, increased abstraction rates and a high transmissivity aquifer facilitate rapid water quality recoveries, with longer term trends controlled by background river and groundwater qualities. Temporary reductions in abstraction rates appear to slow water quality recoveries. Flexible operating regimes such as the one implemented at this study site are likely to be required if shallow aquifer riverbank filtration systems are to be resilient to future inundation events. Development of a conceptual understanding of hydrochemical boundaries and site hydrogeology through monitoring is required to assess the suitability of a prospective riverbank filtration

  19. Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

    2015-04-01

    The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model

  20. The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

    2017-04-01

    The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

  1. Lessons from the autumn 2014 flash floods in the city of Nîmes and its neighborhood (France: behavior of several mitigation dams and hydrological analysis

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    Fouchier Catherine

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Languedoc area, in Southern France, is prone to autumnal flash floods which are characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. To cope with this threat, the local authorities have chosen to build several dams on the main dangerous rivers of the area. We have focused on the flood mitigation facilities of two operators: the City of Nîmes and the Gardons Rivers Managing authority. After the catastrophic flash flood of October 1988, the city of Nîmes built flood mitigation dams on many of its high-risk streams. These flood barriers worked several times during the intense rainfalls of autumn 2014. The on-site conclusions drawn from these floods and the computation carried out with hydrological models confirmed how well the dams functioned. In 2010, the Gardons Rivers Managing authority built a flood mitigation dam on the Esquielle River to protect the village of Saint-Geniès-de-Malgoirès. The spillway of this dam worked for the first time in the autumn of 2014. We analyzed one of the major floods monitored on that occasion at its outlet. The goals of this study are: (i to evaluate dams efficiency and (ii to test, on a catchment which was not used for its calibration, the AIGA flash flood warning method, which was developed by IRSTEA.

  2. The 2-3 November 2015 flood of the Sió River (NE Iberian Peninsula): a flash flood that turns into a mudflow downstream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Rodríguez, Rafael; Tuset, Jordi; Castelltort, Xavier; Barriendos, Mariano; Pino, David; Mazón, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Historical and recent evidence shows that many floods in the interior of Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) usually have such a great sediment load that can even alter the hydraulic behaviour of the flow. This is especially true in catchments with a great proportion of agricultural soils, which are the main source of sediment. The night of 2-3 November 2015 torrential rains fell on the headwaters of the Sió River catchment (508 km2); the subsequent flood caused four deaths and many damages along the stream. The hydrological, hydraulic and sedimentary characteristics of this recent flood have been analysed in order to gain a better insight on the characteristics of the major historical floods in the same catchment. The rainfall height on the headwaters was between 139 and 146 mm in ten hours, with a maximum intensity of about 50 mm·h-1. In the rest of the catchment it rained much less (22-71 mm). The agricultural soils in the headwaters show evidence of intense erosion by laminar and concentrated Hortonian overland flow in their superficial layer (Ap1; 10 cm), which uncovered the more compact underlying layer (Ap2). The peak flow in the headwaters (Oluges) was 90 m3·s-1 (that is, a specific peak flow near 1 m3·s-1·km-2) and it diminished downstream: 40 m3·s-1 in the centre of the catchment (Oluges + 27 km) and 15 m3·s-1 in the outlet (Oluges + 54 km). The suspended sediment load was 10-15% in volume in the headwaters and, judging from recorded images and eyewitnesses, it increased as the flow moved downstream, turning the flash flood into a mudflow. This concentration gain was most probably caused by the flood wave's water loss due to the dryness of the riverbed and translated in an increased viscosity that ultimately altered the hydraulic behaviour of the flow, slowing it down. This process of water loss has been observed in flash floods in dry riverbeds in arid and semiarid areas such as Negev (Israel) and Atacama (Chile). Historical floods in neighbouring

  3. Analysis on causes of flash flood in Jeddah city (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of 2009 and 2011 using multi-sensor remote sensing data and GIS

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    Ahmed M. Youssef

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The Jeddah city is located in a coastal plain area, in the middle of the western side of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, bounded by the Red Sea to the west and mountains to the east. Jeddah city receives rainfall runoff from the foothills through different drainage pathways (wadis. During intense rainfall events, runoff flows westward from the hills and mountains towards the Red Sea, causing flash floods in the urban areas along the pathways of these wadis. Two major flash flood events occurred in Jeddah city during 20 November 2009 - January 2011. These events were characterized by rainfall precipitation values of 70 and 111 mm, respectively. Each flash flood event has duration of three hours. The impact of these two flood events have been disastrous causing extensive flooding that killed 113 people in 2009 and damaged infrastructure and property (more than 10,000 homes and 17,000 vehicles. This study deals with the analysis of the different factors that caused these flash flood events. The results indicate that the causes of these floods are related to a number of factors which play as a major contribution to the worsening of the flood disaster. These factors were classified into the following: geomorphological features, anthropogenic activities (urban changes, network and catchment factors, and rainfall and climatic changes factors. The climatic changes have a major impact on the rainfall intensity and will appear more in the future. Other factors related to the wadis tributaries are narrow passes, and high slope of the wadi has additional impacts in the flash floods in the area. The anthropogenic activities include the proliferation of slums and construction in the valleys coupled with the lack of suitable water streams to accommodate the amount of water flowing and the presence of dirt led to the direction of flow.

  4. Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

  5. Calibration of commercial microwave link derived- rainfall and its relevance to flash flood occurrence in the Dead Sea area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshel, Adam; Alpert, Pinhas; Raich, Roi; Laronne, Jonathan; Merz, Ralf; Geyer, Stefan; Corsmeier, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods are a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid areas such as the Dead Sea. These floods are generated due to a combination of short lasting, yet intense rainfall and typical low infiltration rates. The rare flow events in ephemeral rivers have significant importance in the replenishment of groundwater via transmission losses and in sustaining the vivid ecology of drylands. In some cases, flash floods cause severe damage to infrastructure as well as to private property, constituting a threat to human life. The temporal variation of rainfall intensity is the main driver generating the majority of flash floods in the Judean Desert, hence its monitoring is crucial in this area as in other remote arid areas worldwide. Cellular communication towers are profusely located. Commercial Microwave Links (CML) attenuation data obtained by cellular companies can be used for environmental monitoring. Rain is one of the most effective meteorological phenomena to attenuate a CML signal which, unlike radar backscatter, relates to near-surface conditions and is, therefore, suitable for surface hydrology. A 16 km CML crosses the Wadi Ze'elim drainage basin (~250 square kilometers), at the outlet of which the discharge is calculated using the Manning formula. The hydrometric data include accurate longitudinal and cross sectional measurements, water level and importantly mean water surface velocity when present during a flash flood. The latter is first-ever obtained in desert flash floods by portable, radar-based surface velocimetry. Acquisition of water velocity data is essential to avoid assuming a constant roughness coefficient, thereby more accurately calculating water discharge. Calibrating the CML-rain intensity, derived from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU)'s power law, is necessary to correlate the surface hydrologic response to the link. Our calibration approach is as follows: all the Israel Meteorological Service C-band radar cells over the CML

  6. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

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    J.-C. Thouret

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows, and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials.

    In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access

  7. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

    2013-02-01

    Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our

  8. High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

    2004-01-01

    High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

  9. Epidemiological characteristics of lower extremity cellulitis after a typhoon flood.

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    Pei-Chen Lin

    Full Text Available The flood after a typhoon may lead to increase in patients with cellulitis of lower limbs. However, the microbiological features of these cases are rarely reported. We conducted a study of patients with lower extremity cellulitis after a typhoon followed in southern Taiwan to study the risk factors of cellulitis and the bacteriological features of the patients.We reviewed all the medical records of cellulitis at emergency departments of two teaching hospitals in southern Taiwan 30 days before and after the landing of Typhoon Morakot and collected data on the demographic and bacteriological characteristics. In addition, we evaluated the relationship between the daily number of patients and the rainfall in the Tainan area.The number of cellulitis patients increased from 183 to 344 during the 30-day period after the typhoon. The number peaked in the third and fourth days and lasted for 3 weeks. The proportion of patients with water immersion of the affected limb was higher after the typhoon (6% vs. 37%, odds ratio [OR]: 9.0, 95% Confidence interval [CI]: 4.7-17.2. We found cultures from the infected limbs with immersion had more polymicrobial (73% vs. 26%, OR: 7.8, 95% CI: 3.2-19.2 and Gram-negative bacilli infection (86% vs. 34%, OR: 11.8, 95% CI: 4.1-34.5.Flood arose from Typhoon Morakot caused increases in cellulitis patients, which lasted for 3 weeks. Antibiotic treatment that were effective to both Gram-positive cocci and Gram-negative bacilli are recommended for patients with limbs emerged in the water.

  10. HYDRAULIC SIMULATION OF FLASH FLOOD AS TRIGGERED BY NATURAL DAM BREAK

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    Yanuar Tri Kurniawan

    2015-05-01

    Calibration model result showed that the height of natural dam significantly influence changes of water surface elevation at control point. Tracing of flood result in reconstruction of January 2006 flood showed the conformity with the real event. It was observed from the arrival time of flood at certain location. From obtained results, it can be concluded that simulation modeling gave the acceptable results.

  11. Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models - the flash flood cases of 11-13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera, A.; Altava-Ortiz, V.; Llasat, M. C.; Barnolas, M.

    2007-09-01

    Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them.

  12. Evaluating the impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on intra-urban road network: A case study in the city center of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jie; Yu, Dapeng; Yin, Zhane; Liu, Min; He, Qing

    2016-06-01

    Urban pluvial flood are attracting growing public concern due to rising intense precipitation and increasing consequences. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient urban pluvial flood management, particularly in transportation sector. This paper describes an integrated methodology, which initially makes use of high resolution 2D inundation modeling and flood depth-dependent measure to evaluate the potential impact and risk of pluvial flash flood on road network in the city center of Shanghai, China. Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationships of Shanghai rainstorm and Chicago Design Storm are combined to generate ensemble rainfall scenarios. A hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D) is used to simulate overland flow and flood inundation for each scenario. Furthermore, road impact and risk assessment are respectively conducted by a new proposed algorithm and proxy. Results suggest that the flood response is a function of spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and local characteristics (i.e. drainage and topography), and pluvial flash flood is found to lead to proportionate but nonlinear impact on intra-urban road inundation risk. The approach tested here would provide more detailed flood information for smart management of urban street network and may be applied to other big cities where road flood risk is evolving in the context of climate change and urbanization.

  13. Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

    2017-04-01

    Floods are one of the most predominant, costly and deadly hazards of all natural vulnerabilities. Every year, floods exert a heavy toll on human life and property in many parts of the world. The prediction of river stages and discharge during flood extremes plays a vital role in planning structural and non-structural measures of flood management. The predictions are also valuable to prepare the flood inundation maps and river floodplain zoning. In the Kashmir Valley, floods occur mainly and very often in the Jhelum Basin mostly due to extreme precipitation events and rugged mountainous topography of the basin. These floods cause extreme damage to life and property in the valley from time to time. Excessive rainfall, particularly in higher sub-catchments causes the snow to melt resulting in excessive runoff downhill to the streams causing floods in the Kashmir Valley where Srinagar city is located. However, very few hydrological studies have been undertaken for the Jhelum Basin mainly due to non-availability of hydrological data due to very complex mountainous terrain. Therefore, the present study has been conducted to model the extreme flood events in the Jhelum Basin in Kashmir Valley. An integrated NAM and MIKE 11 HD model has been setup for Jhelum basin up to Ram Munshi Bagh gauging site and then four most extreme historical flood events in the time series has been analyzed separately including the most recent and most extreme flood event of 2014. In September 2014, the Kashmir Valley witnessed the most severe flood in the past 60 years due to catastrophic rainfall from 1st to 6th September wherein the valley received unprecedented rainfall of more than 650 mm in just 3 days breaking record of many decades. The MIKE 11 HD and NAM model has been calibrated using 21 years (1985-2005) data and validated using 9 years (2006-2014) data. The efficiency indices of the model for calibration and validation period is 0.749 and 0.792 respectively. The model simulated

  14. Early Detection of Baby-Rain-Cell Aloft in a Severe Storm and Risk Projection for Urban Flash Flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eiichi Nakakita

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In July 2008, five people were killed by a tragic flash flood caused by a local torrential heavy rainfall in a short time in Toga River. From this tragic accident, we realized that a system which can detect hazardous rain-cells in the earlier stage is strongly needed and would provide an additional 5 to 10 min for evacuation. By analyzing this event, we verified that a first radar echo aloft, by volume scan observation, is a practical and important sign for early warning of flash flood, and we named a first echo as a “baby-rain-cell” of Guerrilla-heavy rainfall. Also, we found a vertical vorticity criterion for identifying hazardous rain-cells and developed a heavy rainfall prediction system that has the important feature of not missing any hazardous rain-cell. Being able to detect heavy rainfall by 23.6 min on average before it reaches the ground, this system is implemented in XRAIN in the Kinki area. Additionally, to resolve the relationship between baby-rain-cell growth and vorticity behavior, we carried out an analysis of vorticity inside baby-rain-cells and verified that a pair of positive and negative vertical vortex tubes as well as an updraft between them existed in a rain-cell in the early stage.

  15. Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Quang Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern Vietnam is a region prone to heavy flash flooding events. These often have devastating effects on the environment, cause economic damage and, in the worst case scenario, cost human lives. As their frequency and severity are likely to increase in the future, procedures have to be established to cope with this threat. As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately predict their occurrence. We used a documented event on 23 June 2011 in the Nam Khat and the larger adjacent Nam Kim watershed to calibrate the coupled model approach. Afterward, we evaluated the performance of the coupled models in predicting flow velocity (FV, water levels (WL, discharge (Q and streamflow power (P during the 3–5 days following the event, using two different precipitation datasets from the global spectral model (GSM and the high resolution model (HRM. Our results show that the estimated Q and WL closely matched observed data with a Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE of around 0.93 and a coefficient of determination (R2 at above 0.96. The resulting analyses reveal strong relationships between river geometry and FV, WL and P. Although there were some minor errors in forecast results, the model-predicted Q and WL corresponded well to the gauged data.

  16. The dichotomous response of flood and storm extremes to rising global temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Wasko, C.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperature have resulted in increases in short-duration rainfall extremes across the world. Additionally it has been shown (doi:10.1038/ngeo2456) that storms will intensify, causing derived flood peaks to rise even more. This leads us to speculate that flood peaks will increase as a result, complying with the storyline presented in past IPCC reports. This talk, however, shows that changes in flood extremes are much more complex. Using global data on extreme flow events, the study conclusively shows that while the very extreme floods may be rising as a result of storm intensification, the more frequent flood events are decreasing in magnitude. The study argues that changes in the magnitude of floods are a function of changes in storm patterns and as well as pre-storm or antecedent conditions. It goes on to show that while changes in storms dominate for the most extreme events and over smaller, more urbanised catchments, changes in pre-storm conditions are the driving factor in modulating flood peaks in large rural catchments. The study concludes by providing recommendations on how future flood design should proceed, arguing that current practices (or using a design storm to estimate floods) are flawed and need changing.

  17. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  18. Performance of Models for Flash Flood Warning and Hazard Assessment: The 2015 Kali Gandaki Landslide Dam Breach in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy D. Bricker

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks weakened mountain slopes in Nepal. Co- and postseismic landsliding and the formation of landslide-dammed lakes along steeply dissected valleys were widespread, among them a landslide that dammed the Kali Gandaki River. Overtopping of the landslide dam resulted in a flash flood downstream, though casualties were prevented because of timely evacuation of low-lying areas. We hindcast the flood using the BREACH physically based dam-break model for upstream hydrograph generation, and compared the resulting maximum flow rate with those resulting from various empirical formulas and a simplified hydrograph based on published observations. Subsequent modeling of downstream flood propagation was compromised by a coarse-resolution digital elevation model with several artifacts. Thus, we used a digital-elevation-model preprocessing technique that combined carving and smoothing to derive topographic data. We then applied the 1-dimensional HEC-RAS model for downstream flood routing, and compared it to the 2-dimensional Delft-FLOW model. Simulations were validated using rectified frames of a video recorded by a resident during the flood in the village of Beni, allowing estimation of maximum flow depth and speed. Results show that hydrological smoothing is necessary when using coarse topographic data (such as SRTM or ASTER, as using raw topography underestimates flow depth and speed and overestimates flood wave arrival lag time. Results also show that the 2-dimensional model produces more accurate results than the 1-dimensional model but the 1-dimensional model generates a more conservative result and can be run in a much shorter time. Therefore, a 2-dimensional model is recommended for hazard assessment and planning, whereas a 1-dimensional model would facilitate real-time warning declaration.

  19. Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

  20. Extreme flood events in the Bolivian Amazon wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ovando

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. Study focus: We analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014. These data, together with flood mapping derived from remote sensing images, were used to understand the dynamics of the Llanos during the three flood events. New hydrological insights for the region: The results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region. As a previous study suggested, the dynamics of the floods are controlled by an exogenous process, created by the flood wave originating in the Andes piedmont that travels through the Mamoré River; and by an endogenous process, which is the runoff originating in the Llanos. Our study showed that the first process is evident only at the initial phase of the floods, and although important for attenuating the rising flood wave, it is of lesser importance compared to the endogenous process. We conclude that the endogenous process controls the magnitude and duration of major floods. Keywords: Flood dynamics, Wetlands, Remote sensing, Llanos de Moxos

  1. Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage-damage functions and 2-D hydraulic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, J.; Alvarenga, F. M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2016-10-01

    The village of Pajares de Pedraza (Segovia, Spain) is located in the floodplain of the Cega River, a left bank tributary of the Douro River. Repeated flash flood events occur in this small village because of its upstream catchment area, mountainous character and impermeable lithology, which reduce concentration time to just a few hours. River overbank flow has frequently caused flooding and property damage to homes and rural properties, most notably in 1927, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2013 and 2014. Consequently, a detailed analysis was carried out to quantify the economic risk of flash floods in peri-urban and rural areas. Magnitudes and exceedance probabilities were obtained from a flood frequency analysis of maximum discharges. To determine the extent and characteristics of the flooded area, we performed 2D hydraulic modeling (Iber 2.0 software) based on LIDAR (1 m) topography and considering three different scenarios associated with the initial construction (1997) and subsequent extension (2013) of a linear defense structure (rockfill dike or levee) to protect the population. Specific stage-damage functions were expressly developed using in situ data collection for exposed elements, with special emphasis on urban-type categories. The average number of elements and their unit value were established. The relationship between water depth and the height at which electric outlets, furniture, household goods, etc. were located was analyzed; due to its effect on the form of the function. Other nonspecific magnitude-damage functions were used in order to compare both economic estimates. The results indicate that the use of non-specific magnitude-damage functions leads to a significant overestimation of economic losses, partly linked to the use of general economic cost data. Furthermore, a detailed classification and financial assessment of exposed assets is the most important step to ensure a correct estimate of financial losses. In both cases, this should include a

  2. Flash floods and debris flow: how the risk could can be better managed? The case of the events in Sicily on October 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Brigandi', Giuseppina

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are phenomena in which the important hydrologic processes are occurring on the same spatial and temporal scales as the intense precipitation. Most of the catchments of the Messina area in the North-East part of Sicily (Italy), are prone to flash flood formation. They are, in fact, small, with a steep slope, and characterised by short concentration times. Moreover, those catchments are predominantly rural in the upper mountainous part, while the areas next to the outlet are highly urbanized with areas that cover not only the floodplain but also the river bed itself as the main roads were previously part of the torrent. This situation involve an high risk of economic losses and human life in case of flash flood in these areas. In the last years the area around Messina has been interested by severe flash floods and debris flow. The events occurred on 25th October 2007 in the Mastroguglielmo torrent and 1st October 2009 on Racinazzi and Gianpilieri torrents are an example of flash floods and debris flow events that caused not only significant economic damages to property, buildings, roads and bridges but also, for this that concern the 1st October 2009 flash flood, loss of human life. The main focus of this work is, basing on the post event analysis of the 2009 flash flood event, to try to understand which could be the better preventive measures and mitigation strategies that can be provided for a better risk management in these areas too many times affected by devastating events. Flood management can be controlled by either structural or non-structural measures. Adoption of a certain measure depends critically on the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the river system and the region. Flash flood management includes a number of phases that should be included in any management strategy like prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Forecasting based on hydrological precursors based on the soil moisture condition at the

  3. Mapping Infected Area after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Multi Criteria Analysis and Spectral Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Akad, S.; Akensous, Y.; Hakdaoui, M.

    2017-11-01

    This research article is summarize the applications of remote sensing and GIS to study the urban floods risk in Al Mukalla. Satellite acquisition of a flood event on October 2015 in Al Mukalla (Yemen) by using flood risk mapping techniques illustrate the potential risk present in this city. Satellite images (The Landsat and DEM images data were atmospherically corrected, radiometric corrected, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified.) are used for flood risk mapping to afford a hazard (vulnerability) map. This map is provided by applying image-processing techniques and using geographic information system (GIS) environment also the application of NDVI, NDWI index, and a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Four factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, geology and elevation. The multi-criteria analysis, allowing to deal with vulnerability to flooding, as well as mapping areas at the risk of flooding of the city Al Mukalla. The main object of this research is to provide a simple and rapid method to reduce and manage the risks caused by flood in Yemen by take as example the city of Al Mukalla.

  4. A UAV based system for real time flash flood monitoring in desert environments using Lagrangian microsensors

    KAUST Repository

    Abdelkader, Mohamed; Shaqura, Mohammad; Claudel, Christian G.; Gueaieb, Wail

    2013-01-01

    with advance warning, for which real time monitoring is critical. While satellite-based high resolution weather forecasts can help predict floods to a certain extent, they are not reliable enough, as flood models depend on a large number of parameters

  5. Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters

  6. Driving into danger: Perception and communication of flash flood risk from a cultural perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, A.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Fryberg, S.

    2009-04-01

    Flood risk managers educate the public on the dangers of driving through flooded roadways, yet losses to life and property continue to occur. This study integrates cultural psychology and risk perception theory to explore how culture, psychological processes, and behavior influence one another. Flood risk managers in Tucson, Arizona collaborated in the development of a questionnaire mailed to local residents. Questions regarding levels of trust, self-efficacy, social autonomy, social incorporation, time perspective, and situational factors were analyzed with respect to whether respondents stated that they have or have not driven through a flooded roadway. Respondents' decisions are influenced by the presence of signs and barricades, passengers, risk of personal injury or damage to the vehicle, and the availability of flood-related information. The most influential factor is the prior successful crossing of other vehicles. The results illuminate complex interrelations among the cultural factors and provide considerations for future risk perception research.

  7. Spatial interpolation of GPS PWV and meteorological variables over the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia during 2013 Klang Valley Flash Flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Rahman, Rosnani

    2016-02-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers are widely installed throughout the Peninsular Malaysia, but the implementation for monitoring weather hazard system such as flash flood is still not optimal. To increase the benefit for meteorological applications, the GPS system should be installed in collocation with meteorological sensors so the precipitable water vapor (PWV) can be measured. The distribution of PWV is a key element to the Earth's climate for quantitative precipitation improvement as well as flash flood forecasts. The accuracy of this parameter depends on a large extent on the number of GPS receiver installations and meteorological sensors in the targeted area. Due to cost constraints, a spatial interpolation method is proposed to address these issues. In this paper, we investigated spatial distribution of GPS PWV and meteorological variables (surface temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) by using thin plate spline (tps) and ordinary kriging (Krig) interpolation techniques over the Klang Valley in Peninsular Malaysia (longitude: 99.5°-102.5°E and latitude: 2.0°-6.5°N). Three flash flood cases in September, October, and December 2013 were studied. The analysis was performed using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) to determine the accuracy and reliability of the interpolation techniques. Results at different phases (pre, onset, and post) that were evaluated showed that tps interpolation technique is more accurate, reliable, and highly correlated in estimating GPS PWV and relative humidity, whereas Krig is more reliable for predicting temperature and rainfall during pre-flash flood events. During the onset of flash flood events, both methods showed good interpolation in estimating all meteorological parameters with high accuracy and reliability. The finding suggests that the proposed method of spatial interpolation techniques are capable of handling limited data sources with high

  8. A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

    2010-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the

  9. Wetlands and Flood Mitigation in Ontario: Natural adaptation to extreme rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    Marchildon, Mason

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Wetlands are often recognized for their flood control value, but little research exists specific to Ontario, where extreme weather causing flooding poses ever-greater threats to urban areas. Ducks Unlimited Canada has undertaken new research to better understand the role of wetlands in storing and attenuating flood flows in an urban/rural watershed. The second phase of this research, reported here, employs advanced hydrologic modelling to address the questions of where and how we...

  10. Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

    2007-12-01

    Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

  11. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  12. Extreme ultraviolet fluorescence spectroscopy of pure and core-shell rare gas clusters at FLASH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schroedter, Lasse

    2013-08-15

    The interaction of rare gas clusters with short-wavelength radiation of free-electron lasers (FELs) has been studied extensively over the last decade by means of electron and ion time-of-flight spectroscopy. This thesis describes the design and construction of a fluorescence spectrometer for the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectral range and discusses the cluster experiments performed at FLASH, the Free-electron LAser in Hamburg. Fluorescence of xenon and of argon clusters was studied, both in dependence on the FEL pulse intensity and on the cluster size. The FEL wavelength was set to the giant 4d-resonance of xenon at 13.5 nm and the FEL pulse intensity reached peak values of 2.7.10{sup 15} W/cm{sup 2}. For xenon clusters, charge states of at least 11+ were identified. For argon, charge states up to 7+ were detected. The cluster-size dependent study revealed a decrease of the fluorescence yield per atom with increasing cluster size. This decrease is explained with the help of a geometric model. It assumes that virtually the entire fluorescence yield stems from shells of ions on the cluster surface, whereas ions in the cluster core predominantly recombine non-radiatively with electrons. However, the detailed analysis of fluorescence spectra from clusters consisting of a core of Xe atoms and a surrounding shell of argon atoms shows that, in fact, a small fraction of the fluorescence signal comes from Xe ions in the cluster core. Interestingly, these ions are as highly charged as the ions in the shells of a pure Xe cluster. This result goes beyond the current understanding of charge and energy transfer processes in these systems and points toward the observation of ultrafast charging dynamics in a time window where mass spectrometry is inherently blind. (orig.)

  13. Extreme ultraviolet fluorescence spectroscopy of pure and core-shell rare gas clusters at FLASH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroedter, Lasse

    2013-08-01

    The interaction of rare gas clusters with short-wavelength radiation of free-electron lasers (FELs) has been studied extensively over the last decade by means of electron and ion time-of-flight spectroscopy. This thesis describes the design and construction of a fluorescence spectrometer for the extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectral range and discusses the cluster experiments performed at FLASH, the Free-electron LAser in Hamburg. Fluorescence of xenon and of argon clusters was studied, both in dependence on the FEL pulse intensity and on the cluster size. The FEL wavelength was set to the giant 4d-resonance of xenon at 13.5 nm and the FEL pulse intensity reached peak values of 2.7.10 15 W/cm 2 . For xenon clusters, charge states of at least 11+ were identified. For argon, charge states up to 7+ were detected. The cluster-size dependent study revealed a decrease of the fluorescence yield per atom with increasing cluster size. This decrease is explained with the help of a geometric model. It assumes that virtually the entire fluorescence yield stems from shells of ions on the cluster surface, whereas ions in the cluster core predominantly recombine non-radiatively with electrons. However, the detailed analysis of fluorescence spectra from clusters consisting of a core of Xe atoms and a surrounding shell of argon atoms shows that, in fact, a small fraction of the fluorescence signal comes from Xe ions in the cluster core. Interestingly, these ions are as highly charged as the ions in the shells of a pure Xe cluster. This result goes beyond the current understanding of charge and energy transfer processes in these systems and points toward the observation of ultrafast charging dynamics in a time window where mass spectrometry is inherently blind. (orig.)

  14. The validity of flow approximations when simulating catchment-integrated flash floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bout, B.; Jetten, V. G.

    2018-01-01

    Within hydrological models, flow approximations are commonly used to reduce computation time. The validity of these approximations is strongly determined by flow height, flow velocity and the spatial resolution of the model. In this presentation, the validity and performance of the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximations are investigated for use in a catchment-based flood model. Particularly, the validity during flood events and for varying spatial resolutions is investigated. The OpenLISEM hydrological model is extended to implement both these flow approximations and channel flooding based on dynamic flow. The flow approximations are used to recreate measured discharge in three catchments, among which is the hydrograph of the 2003 flood event in the Fella river basin. Furthermore, spatial resolutions are varied for the flood simulation in order to investigate the influence of spatial resolution on these flow approximations. Results show that the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximation provide least to highest accuracy, respectively, in recreating measured discharge. Kinematic flow, which is commonly used in hydrological modelling, substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity in the simulations with a spatial resolution of below 30 m. Since spatial resolutions of models have strongly increased over the past decades, usage of routed kinematic flow should be reconsidered. The combination of diffusive or dynamic overland flow and dynamic channel flooding provides high accuracy in recreating the 2003 Fella river flood event. Finally, in the case of flood events, spatial modelling of kinematic flow substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity and flow concentration since pressure forces are removed, leading to significant errors.

  15. Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Büttner, Uwe; Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels

    2016-05-01

    In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

  16. Knowledge Discovery, Integration and Communication for Extreme Weather and Flood Resilience Using Artificial Intelligence: Flood AI Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Nobody is immune from extreme events or natural hazards that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. One of the solutions to reduce the impacts of extreme events is to invest in improving resilience with the ability to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This abstracts presents our project on developing a resilience framework for flooding to improve societal preparedness with objectives; (a) develop a generalized ontology for extreme events with primary focus on flooding; (b) develop a knowledge engine with voice recognition, artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and inference engine. The knowledge engine will utilize the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery outputs on flooding; (c) develop a data acquisition and processing framework from existing environmental observations, forecast models, and social networks. The system will utilize the framework, capabilities and user base of the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) to populate and test the system; (d) develop a communication framework to support user interaction and delivery of information to users. The interaction and delivery channels will include voice and text input via web-based system (e.g. IFIS), agent-based bots (e.g. Microsoft Skype, Facebook Messenger), smartphone and augmented reality applications (e.g. smart assistant), and automated web workflows (e.g. IFTTT, CloudWork) to open the knowledge discovery for flooding to thousands of community extensible web workflows.

  17. Palaeoflood hydrology in Europe: towards a better understanding of extreme floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benito, G.; Thorndycraft, V. R.; Rico, M.; Sheffer, N.; Enzel, Y.

    2003-04-01

    Floods are the most common natural disasters in Europe and, in terms of economic damage, costs are increasing spectacularly with time. Flood risk assessment associated with extreme floods is difficult due to the scarcity of hydrological measurements, that rarely go beyond 1000 years, which is clearly not sufficient for flood management in urban and industrial areas. Besides the use of conventional hydrologic data, the pre-instrumental record can be completed from palaeoflood hydrology or from documentary flood information, or through the combined use of both these tools. Recent developments of palaeoflood hydrology in Europe provide (1) major improvements in flood risk assessment, and (2) a better understanding of long-term flood-climate relationships. Palaeoflood hydrology has been successfully applied in large, medium rivers as well as small ungauged mountain drainage basins. Long-term palaeoflood records from Spain and France show that recent extraordinary flooding (causing huge economic damages) are not the largest ones, but that similar or even greater floods occurred several times in the past. In addition, clusters of floods coinciding in time at several European rivers point out to climatic factors as responsible mechanisms, although in recent time flood magnitude can be magnified by increasing human activity.

  18. Hydrodynamic models of the possibility of flooding Zaporizhya NPP site beyond the extreme earthquakes and hurricanes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skalozubov, V.I.; Gablaya, T.V.; Vashchenko, V.N.; Gerasimenko, T.V.; Kozlov, I.L.

    2014-01-01

    We propose a hydrodynamic model of possible flooding of the industrial site at Zaporozh'e NPP design basis earthquakes and hurricane. In contrast to the quasi-stationary approach of stress tests in the proposed model takes into account the dynamic nature of the processes of flooding, as well as a direct impact of external influences on extreme Kakhovske reservoir. As a result of hydrodynamic modeling, the possible conditions and criteria for the flooding of the industrial site at Zaporozhe extreme external influences

  19. Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javelle Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2. It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014. This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr. It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories. The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate. Furthermore, specific

  20. Extreme Mississippi River Floods in the Late Holocene: Reconstructions and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, S. E.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Dee, S.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme flooding of the Mississippi River is costly in both economic and social terms. Despite ambitious engineering projects conceived in the early 20th century to mitigate damage from extreme floods, economic losses due to flooding have increased over recent years. Forecasting extreme flood occurrence over seasonal or longer time-scales remains a major challenge - especially in light of shifts in hydroclimatic conditions expected in response to continued greenhouse forcing. Here, we present findings from a series of paleoflood records that span the late Holocene derived from laminated sediments deposited in abandoned channels of the Mississippi River. These sedimentary archives record individual overbank floods as unique events beds with upward fining that we identify using grain-size analysis, bulk geochemistry, and radiography. We use sedimentological characteristics to reconstruct flood magnitude by calibrating our records against instrumental streamflow data from nearby gauging stations. We also use the Last Millennium Experiments of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LME) and historical reanalysis data to examine the state of climate system around river discharge extremes. Our paleo-flood records exhibit strong non-stationarities in flood frequency and magnitude that are associated with fluctuations in the frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), because the warm ENSO phase is associated with increased surface water storage of the lower Mississippi basin that leads to enhanced runoff delivery to the main channel. We also show that the early 20th century was a period of anomalously high flood frequency and magnitude due to the combined effects of river engineering and natural climate variability. Our findings imply that flood risk along the lower Mississippi River is tightly coupled to the frequency of ENSO, highlighting the need for robust projections of ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

  1. Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motsholapheko, M. R.; Kgathi, D. L.; Vanderpost, C.

    Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement, destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included

  2. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  3. Flash flood warning in mountainaious areas: using damages reports to evaluate the method at small ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defrance, Dimitri; Javelle, Pierre; Ecrepont, Stéphane; Andreassian, Vazken

    2013-04-01

    In Europe, flash floods mainly occur in the Mediterranean area on small catchments with a short concentration time. Anticipating this kind of events is a major issue in order to reduce the resulting damages. But for many of the impacted catchments, no data are available to calibrate and evaluate hydrological models. In this context, the aims of this study is to develop and evaluate a warning method for the Southern French Alps. This area is of particular interest, because it regroups different hydrological regimes, from purely Mediterranean to purely Alpine influences. Two main issues should be addressed: - How to define the hydrological model and its parameterization for an application in an ungauged context? - How to evaluate the final results on 'real' ungauged catchments? The first issue is a classic one. Using a 'observed' data set (154 streamflow stations with catchment areas ranging from 5 to 1000 km² and distributed rainfall available on the 1997-2006 period), we developed a regional model specifically for the studied area. For this purpose, the AIGA method, initially developed for Mediterranean catchments was adapted, in order to take into account snowmelt and to produce baseflows. Then, different parameterizations were tested, derived from different simple regionalisation techniques: - the same parameters set for the whole area defined as the median of the local calibrated parameters; - the same technique as the previous case, but by considering different sub-areas, defined as "hydro-climatically" homogeneous by previous studies; - and finally the neighbour's method. The second issue is more original. Indeed, in most studies the final evaluation is done using gauged stations as they were 'ungauged', ie keeping the at-site discharge data only for validation ant not for calibration. The main disadvantage of this approach is that the evaluation is made at the scale of the gauged catchments, which are in general greater than the catchments impacted by flash

  4. Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

  5. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  6. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...

  7. Hydrological analysis of high waters and flash floods occurred in September 2007 in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobold, M; Susnik, M; Robic, M; Ulaga, F; Lalic, B [Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, Vojkova lb, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia)], E-mail: mira.kobold@gov.si

    2008-11-01

    Heavy and intense precipitation which fell in just a few hours across the western, north-western and northern Slovenia on 18 September 2007, caused quick rise of river discharges especially in the region of Baska grapa, Davca, the Cerkljansko and Skofja Loka hills. In that area the streams caused huge destruction on infrastructure, homes, business buildings and other property. More than 300 mm of rain was recorded on some precipitation measurement stations. The return period of the highest precipitation was more than 100 years. The amount of precipitation decreased from the west to the east of the country where above 100 mm of precipitation was recorded and torrential streams and rivers flooded in the region of Karavanke and foothills of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, Kranj and Domzale fields, the Tuhinj valley and extensive Celje region. Observed discharges of streams and rivers on the most affected area exceeded periodical maximum discharges. The simulation of flood hydrograph for Zelezniki was done by HEC-1 model. The return period of floods was more than 100 years. Besides flooding many landslides were triggered. The result of this catastrophe was enormous economic damage and loss of six people's lives.

  8. Hydrological analysis of high waters and flash floods occurred in September 2007 in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, M; Susnik, M; Robic, M; Ulaga, F; Lalic, B

    2008-01-01

    Heavy and intense precipitation which fell in just a few hours across the western, north-western and northern Slovenia on 18 September 2007, caused quick rise of river discharges especially in the region of Baska grapa, Davca, the Cerkljansko and Skofja Loka hills. In that area the streams caused huge destruction on infrastructure, homes, business buildings and other property. More than 300 mm of rain was recorded on some precipitation measurement stations. The return period of the highest precipitation was more than 100 years. The amount of precipitation decreased from the west to the east of the country where above 100 mm of precipitation was recorded and torrential streams and rivers flooded in the region of Karavanke and foothills of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps, Kranj and Domzale fields, the Tuhinj valley and extensive Celje region. Observed discharges of streams and rivers on the most affected area exceeded periodical maximum discharges. The simulation of flood hydrograph for Zelezniki was done by HEC-1 model. The return period of floods was more than 100 years. Besides flooding many landslides were triggered. The result of this catastrophe was enormous economic damage and loss of six people's lives.

  9. Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity

  10. Impacts of a flash flood on drinking water quality: case study of areas most affected by the 2012 Beijing flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubao Sun

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present a method for identifying sources of water pollution and their relative contributions in pollution disasters. The method uses a combination of principal component analysis and factor analysis. We carried out a case study in three rural villages close to Beijing after torrential rain on July 21, 2012. Nine water samples were analyzed for eight parameters, namely turbidity, total hardness, total dissolved solids, sulfates, chlorides, nitrates, total bacterial count, and total coliform groups. All of the samples showed different degrees of pollution, and most were unsuitable for drinking water as concentrations of various parameters exceeded recommended thresholds. Principal component analysis and factor analysis showed that two factors, the degree of mineralization and agricultural runoff, and flood entrainment, explained 82.50% of the total variance. The case study demonstrates that this method is useful for evaluating and interpreting large, complex water-quality data sets.

  11. Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study: Karoon River, Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

    2018-03-01

    An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic effects were detected in different land cover types within the 155-km-long study reach. The results show that the flood significantly affected the channel width and the main effect was high mobilization of channel sediments and severe bank erosion in the meandering reaches. According to field surveys, the flood occupied the channel corridor and even the floodplain parts. However, the channel pattern was not significantly altered, although the results show that the average channel width increased from 192 to 256 m. Statistical results indicate a significant change for active channel width and sinuosity index at 99% confidence level for both indexes. The flood-induced morphological changes varied significantly for different land cover types along the Karoon River. Specifically, the channel has widened less in residential areas than in other land cover types because of the occurrence of bank protection structures. However, the value of bank retreat in residential and protected sides of the Karoon River is more than what we expected during the study of extreme flood.

  12. Spatial Analysis of High-Resolution Radar Rainfall and Citizen-Reported Flash Flood Data in Ultra-Urban New York City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brianne Smith

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available New York City (NYC is an ultra-urban region, with over 50% impervious cover and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but these methods cannot be used in ultra-urban areas. Here we create a high-resolution radar rainfall dataset for NYC and utilize citizen and expert reports of flooding throughout the city to study flash flooding in NYC. Results indicate that interactions between the urban area and land–sea boundary have an important impact on the spatial variability of both heavy rainfall and flooding, sometimes in contrast to results obtained for other cities. Top days of daily and hourly rainfall exhibit a rainfall maximum over the city center and an extended region of higher rainfall downwind of the city. The mechanism for flooding appears to vary across the city, with high groundwater tables influencing more coastal areas and high rain rates or large rain volumes influencing more inland areas. There is also a strong relationship between sewer type and flood frequency, with fewer floods observed in combined sewer areas. Flooding is driven by maximum one-hour to one-day rainfall, which is often substantially less rain than observed for the city-wide daily maximum.

  13. Langbjorn dam : adaptation for safe discharge of extreme floods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, J. [Vattenfall Research and Development, Alvkarleby (Sweden); Ericsson, H.; Gustafsson, A. [SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden); Stenmark, M. [Vattenfall Power Consultant, Ludvika (Sweden); Mikaelsson, J. [Vattenfall Nordic Generation, Bispgarden (Sweden)

    2007-07-01

    The Langbjorn hydropower scheme, composed of an embankment dam with an impervious core of compacted moraine, a spillway section and a powerhouse, is located on the Angermanalven River in north Sweden. The scheme was commissioned in 1959 and is owned by Vattenfall. As part of its dam safety program, Vattenfall plans to adapt and refurbish many of its dams to the updated design-flood and dam-safety guidelines. Langbjorn is classified as a high hazard dam, as its updated design flood is 30 per cent higher than the existing spillway capacity. Safety evaluations were conducted for the Langbjorn dam, and, as required by the higher safety standard, there was a need to rebuild the dam, so that the design flood could be safely released without causing failure of the dam. This paper provided information on the Langbjorn hydropower scheme and discussed the planned rebuilding measures. For example, the design flood was accommodated by allowing a temporary raise of the water level by 1.3 metres above the legal retention reservoir level, which required heightening and reinforcement of the dam. Specifically, the paper discussed measures to increase the discharge capacity; handling and control of floating debris; improvement and heightening of impervious core in left and right connecting dam and abutment; measures to increase the stability of the left steep riverbank; and measures to increase stability of the spillway monoliths and the left guide wall. In addition, the paper discussed measures to ensure stability of the downstream stretch of the river bank and increase instrumentation. The paper also presented the results of hydraulic investigations to investigate the risk of erosion downstream of the dam. It was concluded that the dam could discharge the design flood and that the stability of the dam was improved and judged to be satisfactory during all foreseeable conditions. 2 refs., 8 figs.

  14. Are recent severe floods in Xiang River basin of China linked with the increase extreme precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Du, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Xiang River, a main tributary of the Yangtze River, is subjected to high floods frequently in recent twenty years. Climate change, including abrupt shifts and fluctuations in precipitation is an important factor influencing hydrological extreme conditions. In addition, human activities are widely recognized as another reasons leading to high flood risk. With the effects of climate change and human interventions on hydrological cycle, there are several questions that need to be addressed. Are floods in the Xiang River basin getting worse? Whether the extreme streamflow shows an increasing tendency? If so, is it because the extreme rainfall events have predominant effect on floods? To answer these questions, the article detected existing trends in extreme precipitation and discharge using Mann-Kendall test. Continuous wavelet transform method was employed to identify the consistency of changes in extreme precipitation and discharge. The Pearson correlation analysis was applied to investigate how much degree of variations in extreme discharge can be explained by climate change. The results indicate that slightly upward trends can be detected in both extreme rainfalls and discharge in the upper region of Xiang River basin. For the most area of middle and lower river basin, the extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, but the extreme discharge displays slightly upward trends with no significance at 90% confidence level. Wavelet transform analysis results illustrate that highly similar patterns of signal changes can be seen between extreme precipitation and discharge in upper section of the basin, while the changes in extreme precipitation for the middle and lower reaches do not always coincide with the extreme streamflow. The correlation coefficients of the wavelet transforms for the precipitation and discharge signals in most area of the basin pass the significance test. The conclusion may be drawn that floods in recent years are not getting worse in

  15. Capturing spatial and temporal patterns of widespread, extreme flooding across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busby, Kathryn; Raven, Emma; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Statistical characterisation of physical hazards is an integral part of probabilistic catastrophe models used by the reinsurance industry to estimate losses from large scale events. Extreme flood events are not restricted by country boundaries which poses an issue for reinsurance companies as their exposures often extend beyond them. We discuss challenges and solutions that allow us to appropriately capture the spatial and temporal dependence of extreme hydrological events on a continental-scale, which in turn enables us to generate an industry-standard stochastic event set for estimating financial losses for widespread flooding. By presenting our event set methodology, we focus on explaining how extreme value theory (EVT) and dependence modelling are used to account for short, inconsistent hydrological data from different countries, and how to make appropriate statistical decisions that best characterise the nature of flooding across Europe. The consistency of input data is of vital importance when identifying historical flood patterns. Collating data from numerous sources inherently causes inconsistencies and we demonstrate our robust approach to assessing the data and refining it to compile a single consistent dataset. This dataset is then extrapolated using a parameterised EVT distribution to estimate extremes. Our method then captures the dependence of flood events across countries using an advanced multivariate extreme value model. Throughout, important statistical decisions are explored including: (1) distribution choice; (2) the threshold to apply for extracting extreme data points; (3) a regional analysis; (4) the definition of a flood event, which is often linked with reinsurance industry's hour's clause; and (5) handling of missing values. Finally, having modelled the historical patterns of flooding across Europe, we sample from this model to generate our stochastic event set comprising of thousands of events over thousands of years. We then briefly

  16. Brief communication: On-site data collection of damage caused by flash floods: Experiences from Braunsbach, Germany, in May/June 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret

    2017-04-01

    At the end of May and beginning of June 2016, several municipalities in Southern Germany suffered from severe flash floods and debris flows which have been triggered by intense rainfall in Central Europe. Overall, the insured losses of these events amounted to EUR 1.2 billion in Germany. Especially the strong and unexpected flash flood on May 29th in Braunsbach (Baden Wurttemberg) - a small village counting about 1,000 residents - attracted media and policymakers due to its devastating character. The understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex-post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information, linking process intensities to damage by using adequate methods of data gathering. Thus, on-site data collection was carried out after the flash flood event in Braunsbach, using open source software as helpful and efficient tool for data acquisition and evaluation. A digital survey was designed and conducted by a team of five researchers who investigated all buildings affected by water and debris flows. The collected data includes an estimation of a particular damage class, the inundation depth, and other relevant information. A post - hoc data analysis was done with R 3.3.1 and QGIS 2.14.3, performing both, a Random Forest Model (RF) and Random Generalized Linear Model (RGLM) as well as preparing a Spearman's rank correlation matrix. For visual interpretation and better overview of the study area and analysis results, a "process intensity" map was created, revealing important links of damage driving factors. We find that not only the water depth, which is often considered as only damage driving factor in riverine flood loss modelling, but also the exposition of a building to the flow direction and susceptible building parts like e.g. shop windows seem to be risk factors in flash-flood prone regions. Although no significant correlations were found, the analyses indicate that also building material (i.e. half-timbered or masonry) and structural

  17. On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kale, Vishwas [University of Pune, Department of Geography, Pune (India)

    2012-09-15

    This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between {proportional_to}1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. (orig.)

  18. The use of distributed hydrological models for the Gard 2002 flash flood event: Analysis of associated hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Roux, Hélène; Anquetin, Sandrine; Maubourguet, Marie-Madeleine; Manus, Claire; Viallet, Pierre; Dartus, Denis

    2010-11-01

    SummaryThis paper presents a detailed analysis of the September 8-9, 2002 flash flood event in the Gard region (southern France) using two distributed hydrological models: CVN built within the LIQUID® hydrological platform and MARINE. The models differ in terms of spatial discretization, infiltration and water redistribution representation, and river flow transfer. MARINE can also account for subsurface lateral flow. Both models are set up using the same available information, namely a DEM and a pedology map. They are forced with high resolution radar rainfall data over a set of 18 sub-catchments ranging from 2.5 to 99 km2 and are run without calibration. To begin with, models simulations are assessed against post field estimates of the time of peak and the maximum peak discharge showing a fair agreement for both models. The results are then discussed in terms of flow dynamics, runoff coefficients and soil saturation dynamics. The contribution of the subsurface lateral flow is also quantified using the MARINE model. This analysis highlights that rainfall remains the first controlling factor of flash flood dynamics. High rainfall peak intensities are very influential of the maximum peak discharge for both models, but especially for the CVN model which has a simplified overland flow transfer. The river bed roughness also influences the peak intensity and time. Soil spatial representation is shown to have a significant role on runoff coefficients and on the spatial variability of saturation dynamics. Simulated soil saturation is found to be strongly related with soil depth and initial storage deficit maps, due to a full saturation of most of the area at the end of the event. When activated, the signature of subsurface lateral flow is also visible in the spatial patterns of soil saturation with higher values concentrating along the river network. However, the data currently available do not allow the assessment of both patterns. The paper concludes with a set of

  19. Flash flood hazard assessment through modelling in small semi-arid watersheds. The example of the Beni Mellal watershed in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werren, G.; Balin, D.; Reynard, E.; Lane, S. N.

    2012-04-01

    Flood modelling is essential for flood hazard assessment. Modelling becomes a challenge in small, ungauged watersheds prone to flash floods, like the ones draining the town of Beni Mellal (Morocco). Four temporary streams meet in the urban area of Beni Mellal, producing every year sheet floods, harmful to infrastructure and to people. Here, statistical analysis may not give realistic results, but the study of these repeated real flash flood events may provide a better understanding of watershed specific hydrology. This study integrates a larger cooperation project between Switzerland and Morroco, aimed at knowledge transfer in disaster risk reduction, especially through hazard mapping and land-use planning, related to implementation of hazard maps. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling was carried out to obtain hazard maps. An important point was to find open source data and methods that could still produce a realistic model for the area concerned, in order to provide easy-to-use, cost-effective tools for risk management in developing countries like Morocco, where routine data collection is largely lacking. The data used for modelling is the Web available TRMM 3-Hour 0.25 degree rainfall data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM). Hydrologic modelling for discharge estimation was undertaken using methods available in the HEC-HMS software provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers® (USACE). Several transfer models were used, so as to choose the best-suited method available. As no model calibration was possible for no measured flow data was available, a one-at-the-time sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters chosen, in order to detect their influence on the results. But the most important verification method remained field observation, through post-flood field campaigns aimed at mapping water surfaces and depths in the flooded areas, as well as river section monitoring, where rough discharge estimates could be obtained using

  20. Extreme weather is increasing flood-related damage along ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-06-08

    Jun 8, 2016 ... IDRC-supported researchers have found changes in weather patterns and in the intensity of extreme weather events are resulting in the ... the design of adaptation policies and risk management scenarios. ... Related articles ...

  1. Combining geomorphic and documentary flood evidence to reconstruct extreme events in Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndycraft, V. R.; Benito, G.; Barriendos, M.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Casas, A.

    2009-09-01

    Palaeoflood hydrology is the reconstruction of flood magnitude and frequency using geomorphological flood evidence and is particularly valuable for extending the record of extreme floods prior to the availability of instrumental data series. This paper will provide a review of recent developments in palaeoflood hydrology and will be presented in three parts: 1) an overview of the key methodological approaches used in palaeoflood hydrology and the use of historical documentary evidence for reconstructing extreme events; 2) a summary of the Llobregat River palaeoflood case study (Catalonia, NE Spain); and 3) analysis of the AD 1617 flood and its impacts across Catalonia (including the rivers Llobregat, Ter and Segre). The key findings of the Llobregat case study were that at least eight floods occurred with discharges significantly larger than events recorded in the instrumental record, for example at the Pont de Vilomara study reach the palaeodischarges of these events were 3700-4300 m3/s compared to the 1971 flood, the largest on record, of 2300 m3/s. Five of these floods were dated to the last 3000 years and the three events directly dated by radiocarbon all occurred during cold phases of global climate. Comparison of the palaeoflood record with documentary evidence indicated that one flood, radiocarbon dated to cal. AD 1540-1670, was likely to be the AD 1617 event, the largest flood of the last 700 years. Historical records indicate that this event was caused by rainfall occurring from the 2nd to 6th November and the resultant flooding caused widespread socio-economic impacts including the destruction of at least 389 houses, 22 bridges and 17 water mills. Discharges estimated from palaeoflood records and historical flood marks indicate that the Llobregat (4680 m3/s) and Ter (2700-4500 m3/s) rivers witnessed extreme discharges in comparison to observed floods in the instrumental record (2300 and 2350 m3/s, respectively); whilst further east in the Segre River

  2. Conjunctively optimizing flash flood control and water quality in urban water reservoirs by model predictive control and dynamic emulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galelli, Stefano; Goedbloed, Albert; Schmitter, Petra; Castelletti, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Urban water reservoirs are a viable adaptation option to account for increasing drinking water demand of urbanized areas as they allow storage and re-use of water that is normally lost. In addition, the direct availability of freshwater reduces pumping costs and diversifies the portfolios of drinking water supply. Yet, these benefits have an associated twofold cost. Firstly, the presence of large, impervious areas increases the hydraulic efficiency of urban catchments, with short time of concentration, increased runoff rates, losses of infiltration and baseflow, and higher risk of flash floods. Secondly, the high concentration of nutrients and sediments characterizing urban discharges is likely to cause water quality problems. In this study we propose a new control scheme combining Model Predictive Control (MPC), hydro-meteorological forecasts and dynamic model emulation to design real-time operating policies that conjunctively optimize water quantity and quality targets. The main advantage of this scheme stands in its capability of exploiting real-time hydro-meteorological forecasts, which are crucial in such fast-varying systems. In addition, the reduced computational requests of the MPC scheme allows coupling it with dynamic emulators of water quality processes. The approach is demonstrated on Marina Reservoir, a multi-purpose reservoir located in the heart of Singapore and characterized by a large, highly urbanized catchment with a short (i.e. approximately one hour) time of concentration. Results show that the MPC scheme, coupled with a water quality emulator, provides a good compromise between different operating objectives, namely flood risk reduction, drinking water supply and salinity control. Finally, the scheme is used to assess the effect of source control measures (e.g. green roofs) aimed at restoring the natural hydrological regime of Marina Reservoir catchment.

  3. Participatory responses to historical flash floods and their relevance for current risk reduction: a view from a post-communist country

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Raška, P.; Brázdil, Rudolf

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 2 (2015), s. 166-178 ISSN 0004-0894 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-19831S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : environmental hazards * perspective * disasters * vulnerability * resilience * state * flash flood * social response * participatory approach * community-based experience * documentary data Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.349, year: 2015

  4. Effect of Flash Flood in the Distribution of Radionuclides of Ground Water and its Environmental Impacts, Wadi Naseib, Southwestern Sinai, Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nada, A.A.; Talaat, S.M.; Abd El Maksoud, T.M.; ElAassy, I.E.; El Galy, M.M.; El Feky, M.G.; Ibrahim, E.M.

    2011-01-01

    Groundwater can either be extracted from bedrock (drilled wells) or from soil aquifer (dug wells). This study was carried out on four dug wells in two successive years. Water samples were collected in April 2010 (after January 2010 flash flood) and April 2011 (with no flash flood). Samples were prepared for gamma spectrometry using hyper pure germanium detector. The results showed variations in the concentrations of 238 U and its decay series nuclides, 232 Th and 40 K. The activity concentration of 238 U was increased from 5 to 6 times after flash flood, while 232 Th was increased around 10 times. The activity concentrations of 214 Pb and 214 Bi were 2 to 9 times higher in 2011 than in 2010 waters. The 234 U/ 238 U ratio is usually more than one. The analyzed groundwater samples recorded higher effective dose than the recommended reference for drinking water by WHO (0.1 mSv/y). ICRP recommendations set the limit for public exposure as an effective dose of 1.0 mSv/y. In this context, the effective dose of the samples collected in April 2010 were higher than the ICRP limit, while the samples of April 2011 were lower than this limit.

  5. Ensemble-based flash-flood modelling: Taking into account hydrodynamic parameters and initial soil moisture uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edouard, Simon; Vincendon, Béatrice; Ducrocq, Véronique

    2018-05-01

    Intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean often lead to devastating flash floods (FF). FF modelling is affected by several kinds of uncertainties and Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) are designed to take those uncertainties into account. The major source of uncertainty comes from rainfall forcing and convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction systems can manage it for forecasting purpose. But other sources are related to the hydrological modelling part of the HEPS. This study focuses on the uncertainties arising from the hydrological model parameters and initial soil moisture with aim to design an ensemble-based version of an hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers simulations, the ISBA-TOP coupled system. The first step consists in identifying the parameters that have the strongest influence on FF simulations by assuming perfect precipitation. A sensitivity study is carried out first using a synthetic framework and then for several real events and several catchments. Perturbation methods varying the most sensitive parameters as well as initial soil moisture allow designing an ensemble-based version of ISBA-TOP. The first results of this system on some real events are presented. The direct perspective of this work will be to drive this ensemble-based version with the members of a convective-scale meteorological ensemble prediction system to design a complete HEPS for FF forecasting.

  6. Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary layer parameterization: a flash flood case study in the Western Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zampieri

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The 'Montserrat-2000' severe flash flood event which occurred over Catalonia on 9 and 10 June 2000 is analyzed. Strong precipitation was generated by a mesoscale convective system associated with the development of a cyclone. The location of heavy precipitation depends on the position of the cyclone, which, in turn, is found to be very sensitive to various model characteristics and initial conditions. Numerical simulations of this case study using the hydrostatic BOLAM and the non-hydrostatic MOLOCH models are performed in order to test the effects of different formulations of the boundary layer parameterization: a modified version of the Louis (order 1 model and a custom version of the E-ℓ (order 1.5 model. Both of them require a diagnostic formulation of the mixing length, but the use of the turbulent kinetic energy equation in the E-ℓ model allows to represent turbulence history and non-locality effects and to formulate a more physically based mixing length. The impact of the two schemes is different in the two models. The hydrostatic model, run at 1/5 degree resolution, is less sensitive, but the quantitative precipitation forecast is in any case unsatisfactory in terms of localization and amount. Conversely, the non-hydrostatic model, run at 1/50 degree resolution, is capable of realistically simulate timing, position and amount of precipitation, with the apparently superior results obtained with the E-ℓ parameterization model.

  7. Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stucki, Peter; Rickli, Ralph; Broennimann, Stefan; Martius, Olivia; Wanner, Heinz; Bern Univ.; Grebner, Dietmar; Luterbacher, Juerg

    2012-01-01

    The generation of 24 extreme floods in large catchments of the central Alps is analyzed from instrumental and documentary data, newly digitized observations of precipitation (DigiHom) and 20 th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data. Extreme floods are determined by the 95 th percentile of differences between an annual flood and a defined contemporary flood. For a selection of six events between 1868 and 1910, we describe preconditioning elements such as precipitation, temperature, and snow cover anomalies. Specific weather patterns are assessed through a subjective analysis of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation. A focus is placed on synoptic-scale features including mid-tropospheric ascent, low-level moisture transport, propagation of cyclones, and temperature anomalies. We propose a hydro-meteorological classification of all 24 investigated events according to flood-generating weather conditions. Key elements of the upper-level synoptic-scale flow are summarized by five types: (i) pivoting cut-off lows, (ii) elongated cut-off lows, (iii) elongated troughs, (iv) waves (with a kink), and (v) approximately zonal flow over the Alpine region. We found that the most extreme floods (as above, but ≥ 98 th percentile) in Switzerland since 1868 were caused by the interaction of severe hydro-climatologic conditions with a flood-inducing weather situation. The 20CR data provide plausible synoptic-scale meteorological patterns leading to heavy precipitation. The proposed catalogue of weather patterns and hydro-climatologic precursors can give direction when anticipating the possibility of severe floods in the Alpine region. (orig.)

  8. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  9. Considerations on the extreme flood produced in Ral Mare Basin (Retezat Mountains, Romania)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbuc, Mihai

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to illustrate the major impact of an extreme flood on the landscape, on the upper basin of Raul Mare, from Retezat Mountains, Romania, and what means 'hazardous phenomenon'. Romania is one of the European countries most severely affected by natural hazards, which have a big social and economic impact. Between them, floods are the very frequent and have one of the most important effects on settlements, agriculture and communications. Raul mare has three main sources: Lapusnicul Mare, Lapusnicul Mic and Raul Ses. Its springs from glacier lakes, at high altitude, over 2000 m, and have torrential and narrow valleys. In present, their conflence, at Gura Apelor, is covered by an anthropic lake, formed behind of a great dam, 173 m high. This dam had a major role to attenuate and to fail to control the extreme flood from July 1990 and, at the same time, to reduce significantly, the damages in Hateg depression, a low area with many settlements and economic objectives. Behind of the Gura Apelor kake, the Lapusnicul Mare and Mic valleys, the flush flood covered the whole channel, the effects on the landscape-devastating, and the flood probability, between 0,1 -0,1 %. The maps, graphics and pictures presented in this paper will emphasize the situation before and after the event. Furthermore, some standard forms used to be filled in by authorities for immediate and unitary recording of extreme phenomena are presented.(Author)

  10. Novel indices for the comparison of precipitation extremes and floods: an example from the Czech territory

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Valeriánová, A.; Crhová, L.; Holtanová, E.; Gvoždíková, B.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 11 (2015), s. 4641-4652 ISSN 1027-5606 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extreme * flood * extremity index * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sci ences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.990, year: 2015 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst- sci .net/19/4641/2015/hess-19-4641-2015.html

  11. How to Improve Fault Tolerance in Disaster Predictions: A Case Study about Flash Floods Using IoT, ML and Real Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furquim, Gustavo; Filho, Geraldo P R; Jalali, Roozbeh; Pessin, Gustavo; Pazzi, Richard W; Ueyama, Jó

    2018-03-19

    The rise in the number and intensity of natural disasters is a serious problem that affects the whole world. The consequences of these disasters are significantly worse when they occur in urban districts because of the casualties and extent of the damage to goods and property that is caused. Until now feasible methods of dealing with this have included the use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for data collection and machine-learning (ML) techniques for forecasting natural disasters. However, there have recently been some promising new innovations in technology which have supplemented the task of monitoring the environment and carrying out the forecasting. One of these schemes involves adopting IP-based (Internet Protocol) sensor networks, by using emerging patterns for IoT. In light of this, in this study, an attempt has been made to set out and describe the results achieved by SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT). SENDI is a fault-tolerant system based on IoT, ML and WSN for the detection and forecasting of natural disasters and the issuing of alerts. The system was modeled by means of ns-3 and data collected by a real-world WSN installed in the town of São Carlos - Brazil, which carries out the data collection from rivers in the region. The fault-tolerance is embedded in the system by anticipating the risk of communication breakdowns and the destruction of the nodes during disasters. It operates by adding intelligence to the nodes to carry out the data distribution and forecasting, even in extreme situations. A case study is also included for flash flood forecasting and this makes use of the ns-3 SENDI model and data collected by WSN.

  12. How to Improve Fault Tolerance in Disaster Predictions: A Case Study about Flash Floods Using IoT, ML and Real Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furquim, Gustavo; Filho, Geraldo P. R.; Pessin, Gustavo; Pazzi, Richard W.

    2018-01-01

    The rise in the number and intensity of natural disasters is a serious problem that affects the whole world. The consequences of these disasters are significantly worse when they occur in urban districts because of the casualties and extent of the damage to goods and property that is caused. Until now feasible methods of dealing with this have included the use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for data collection and machine-learning (ML) techniques for forecasting natural disasters. However, there have recently been some promising new innovations in technology which have supplemented the task of monitoring the environment and carrying out the forecasting. One of these schemes involves adopting IP-based (Internet Protocol) sensor networks, by using emerging patterns for IoT. In light of this, in this study, an attempt has been made to set out and describe the results achieved by SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT). SENDI is a fault-tolerant system based on IoT, ML and WSN for the detection and forecasting of natural disasters and the issuing of alerts. The system was modeled by means of ns-3 and data collected by a real-world WSN installed in the town of São Carlos - Brazil, which carries out the data collection from rivers in the region. The fault-tolerance is embedded in the system by anticipating the risk of communication breakdowns and the destruction of the nodes during disasters. It operates by adding intelligence to the nodes to carry out the data distribution and forecasting, even in extreme situations. A case study is also included for flash flood forecasting and this makes use of the ns-3 SENDI model and data collected by WSN. PMID:29562657

  13. How to Improve Fault Tolerance in Disaster Predictions: A Case Study about Flash Floods Using IoT, ML and Real Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Furquim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The rise in the number and intensity of natural disasters is a serious problem that affects the whole world. The consequences of these disasters are significantly worse when they occur in urban districts because of the casualties and extent of the damage to goods and property that is caused. Until now feasible methods of dealing with this have included the use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs for data collection and machine-learning (ML techniques for forecasting natural disasters. However, there have recently been some promising new innovations in technology which have supplemented the task of monitoring the environment and carrying out the forecasting. One of these schemes involves adopting IP-based (Internet Protocol sensor networks, by using emerging patterns for IoT. In light of this, in this study, an attempt has been made to set out and describe the results achieved by SENDI (System for dEtecting and forecasting Natural Disasters based on IoT. SENDI is a fault-tolerant system based on IoT, ML and WSN for the detection and forecasting of natural disasters and the issuing of alerts. The system was modeled by means of ns-3 and data collected by a real-world WSN installed in the town of São Carlos - Brazil, which carries out the data collection from rivers in the region. The fault-tolerance is embedded in the system by anticipating the risk of communication breakdowns and the destruction of the nodes during disasters. It operates by adding intelligence to the nodes to carry out the data distribution and forecasting, even in extreme situations. A case study is also included for flash flood forecasting and this makes use of the ns-3 SENDI model and data collected by WSN.

  14. Evaluating extreme flood characteristics of small mountainous basins of the Black Sea coastal area, Northern Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Lebedeva

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The probability of heavy rains and river floods is expected to increase with time in the Northern Caucasus region. Densely populated areas in the valleys of small mountainous watersheds already frequently suffer from catastrophic peak floods caused by intense rains at higher elevations. This study aimed at assessing the flood characteristics of several small basins in the piedmont area of the Caucasus Mountains adjacent to the Black Sea coast including ungauged Cemes River in the Novorossiysk city. The Deterministic-Stochastic Modelling System which consists of hydrological model Hydrograph and stochastic weather generator was applied to evaluate extreme rainfall and runoff characteristics of 1% exceedance probability. Rainfall intensity is shown to play more significant role than its depth in formation of extreme flows within the studied region.

  15. General calibration methodology for a combined Horton-SCS infiltration scheme in flash flood modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabellani, S.; Silvestro, F.; Rudari, R.; Boni, G.

    2008-12-01

    Flood forecasting undergoes a constant evolution, becoming more and more demanding about the models used for hydrologic simulations. The advantages of developing distributed or semi-distributed models have currently been made clear. Now the importance of using continuous distributed modeling emerges. A proper schematization of the infiltration process is vital to these types of models. Many popular infiltration schemes, reliable and easy to implement, are too simplistic for the development of continuous hydrologic models. On the other hand, the unavailability of detailed and descriptive information on soil properties often limits the implementation of complete infiltration schemes. In this work, a combination between the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (SCS-CN) and a method derived from Horton equation is proposed in order to overcome the inherent limits of the two schemes. The SCS-CN method is easily applicable on large areas, but has structural limitations. The Horton-like methods present parameters that, though measurable to a point, are difficult to achieve a reliable estimate at catchment scale. The objective of this work is to overcome these limits by proposing a calibration procedure which maintains the large applicability of the SCS-CN method as well as the continuous description of the infiltration process given by the Horton's equation suitably modified. The estimation of the parameters of the modified Horton method is carried out using a formal analogy with the SCS-CN method under specific conditions. Some applications, at catchment scale within a distributed model, are presented.

  16. Forest operations, extreme flooding events, and considerations for hydrologic modeling in the Appalachians--A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.A. Eisenbies; W.M. Aust; J.A. Burger; M.B. Adams

    2007-01-01

    The connection between forests and water resources is well established, but the relationships among controlling factors are only partly understood. Concern over the effects of forestry operations, particularly harvesting, on extreme flooding events is a recurrent issue in forest and watershed management. Due to the complexity of the system, and the cost of installing...

  17. INDIRECT EFFECT OF EXTREME FLOODING: DISAPPEARANCE OF WADING BIRDS ROOST CAUSED BY VEGETATION TURN

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rajchard, J.; Balounová, Z.; Novák, R.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 1 (2007), s. 64-67 ISSN 1335-342X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA6093105; GA AV ČR(CZ) KSK6005114 Keywords : extreme flooding * night heron * spoonbill * little egret * shrubs Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  18. Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Büchele

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.

  19. General calibration methodology for a combined Horton-SCS infiltration scheme in flash flood modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gabellani

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting undergoes a constant evolution, becoming more and more demanding about the models used for hydrologic simulations. The advantages of developing distributed or semi-distributed models have currently been made clear. Now the importance of using continuous distributed modeling emerges. A proper schematization of the infiltration process is vital to these types of models. Many popular infiltration schemes, reliable and easy to implement, are too simplistic for the development of continuous hydrologic models. On the other hand, the unavailability of detailed and descriptive information on soil properties often limits the implementation of complete infiltration schemes. In this work, a combination between the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (SCS-CN and a method derived from Horton equation is proposed in order to overcome the inherent limits of the two schemes. The SCS-CN method is easily applicable on large areas, but has structural limitations. The Horton-like methods present parameters that, though measurable to a point, are difficult to achieve a reliable estimate at catchment scale. The objective of this work is to overcome these limits by proposing a calibration procedure which maintains the large applicability of the SCS-CN method as well as the continuous description of the infiltration process given by the Horton's equation suitably modified. The estimation of the parameters of the modified Horton method is carried out using a formal analogy with the SCS-CN method under specific conditions. Some applications, at catchment scale within a distributed model, are presented.

  20. A limited area model intercomparison on the 'Montserrat-2000' flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mariani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as 'Montserrat-2000' event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs, several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard 'eyeball' analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

  1. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  2. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  3. A GIS-based model for the hydrological and hydraulic reconstruction of historical flash-floods in urban areas. The case of the river Turia in Valencia (1957)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portugués Mollá, Iván; Felici, Xavier Bonache i.; Mateu Bellés, Joan F.; Segura, Juan B. Marco

    2015-04-01

    Flash-floods are recurrent events in the Mediterranean arch, mostly derived from cold air pool phenomena triggering hydro-geomorphic high-intensity processes, combining high discharge and low frequency. In urban environments the complexity of the processes become higher due to the existence of very fast-response basins and quick-response runoff. However, immediate activities of cleaning up and restoration delete the urban marks. After a short time both significance and dimension of the hydro-geomorphic event become completely unrecognizable. Nevertheless, these episodes generate extensive administrative documentation which is testimony of the processes in almost real time. Exploiting this source typology in order to reconstruct events far in time within urban areas, which may lack database sufficiently rich, is necessary to understand the hydrological and hydraulic derived processes. This is particularly the case of the Valencia flash-flood (1957), located in the lower Turia River basin (6.400 km2). Within a short interval (15 hours) there were registered two flood peaks (estimated at that time at 2.500 and 3.700 m3/s). The double overflowing inundated a large proportion of the urban area. The flash-flood activated fast processes with high energy that left numerous hydro-geomorphic marks. Although those tracks were deleted in a short while after the flood, it remains a legacy that had not yet been exploited, consisting of immediate aerial and oblique high resolution photography, pictures at street level, water level record and administrative records, such as claim files for compensation. Paradoxically, despite the event is considered as a milestone on metropolitan territorial planning and it was decided to divert the river Turia definitely through a major project (12 km of channeling, known as South Solution), being the scenario notably altered, the analysis of the hydrological and hydraulic process has never been reviewed. Undoubtedly, a modern study would ensure

  4. Effects of extreme floods on macroinvertebrate assemblages in tributaries to the Mohawk River, New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderon, Mirian R.; Baldigo, Barry P.; Smith, Alexander J.; Endreny, Theodore A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is forecast to bring more frequent and intense precipitation to New York which has motivated research into the effects of floods on stream ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were sampled at 13 sites in the Mohawk River basin during August 2011, and again in October 2011, following historic floods caused by remnants of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. The annual exceedance probabilities of floods at regional flow-monitoring sites ranged from 0.5 to 0.001. Data from the first 2 surveys, and from additional surveys done during July and October 2014, were assessed to characterize the severity of flood impacts, effect of seasonality, and recovery. Indices of total taxa richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; Hilsenhoff's biotic index; per cent model affinity; and nutrient biotic index-phosphorus were combined to calculate New York State Biological Assessment Profile scores. Analysis of variance tests were used to determine if the Biological Assessment Profile, its component metrics, relative abundance, and diversity differed significantly (p ≤ .05) among the four surveys. Only total taxa richness and Shannon–Wiener diversity increased significantly, and abundance decreased significantly, following the floods. No metrics differed significantly between the July and August 2014 surveys which indicates that the differences denoted between the August and October 2011 surveys were caused by the floods. Changes in taxa richness, EPT richness, and diversity were significantly correlated with flood annual exceedance probabilities. This study increased our understanding of the resistance and resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities by showing that their assemblages were relatively impervious to extreme floods across the region.

  5. Impacts of the 2013 Extreme Flood in Northeast China on Regional Groundwater Depth and Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Wang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Flooding’s impact on shallow groundwater is not well investigated. In this study, we analyzed changes in the depth and quality of a regional shallow aquifer in the 10.9 × 104 km2 Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China, following a large flood in the summer of 2013. Pre- (2008–2012 and post-flood records on groundwater table depth and groundwater chemistry were gathered from 20 wells across the region. Spatial variability of groundwater recharge after the flood was assessed and the changes in groundwater quality in the post-flood period were determined. The study found a considerable increase in the groundwater table after the 2013 summer flood across the region, with the largest (3.20 m and fastest (0.80 m·s−1 rising height occurring in western Sanjiang Plain. The rising height and velocity gradually declined from the west to the east of the plain. For the entire region, we estimated an average recharge height of 1.24 m for the four flood months (June to September of 2013. Furthermore, we found that the extreme flood reduced nitrate (NO3− and chloride (Cl− concentrations and electrical conductivity (EC in shallow groundwater in the areas that were close to rivers, but increased NO3− and Cl− concentrations and EC in the areas that were under intensive agricultural practices. As the region’s groundwater storage and quality have been declining due to the rapidly increasing rice cultivation, this study shows that floods should be managed as water resources to ease the local water shortage as well as shallow groundwater pollution.

  6. Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Impact of Flash Flooding on the Rice Production: A Case Study over Northeastern Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Kok, Aaron; Hassan, Quazi K

    2017-10-14

    The northeastern region of Bangladesh often experiences flash flooding during the pre-harvesting period of the boro rice crop, which is the major cereal crop in the country. In this study, our objective was to delineate the impact of the 2017 flash flood (that initiated on 27 March 2017) on boro rice using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS data. Initially, we opted to use Landsat-8 OLI data for mapping the damages; however, during and after the flooding event the acquisition of cloud free images were challenging. Thus, we used this data to map the cultivated boro rice acreage considering the planting to mature stages of the crop. Also, in order to map the extent of the damaged boro area, we utilized MODIS data as their 16-day composites provided cloud free information. Our results indicated that both the cultivated and damaged boro area estimates based on satellite data had strong relationships while compared to the ground-based estimates (i.e., r ² values approximately 0.92 for both cases, and RMSE of 18,374 and 9380 ha for cultivated and damaged areas, respectively). Finally, we believe that our study would be critical for planning and ensuring food security for the country.

  7. Extreme Precipitation, Stormwater, and Flooding in King County: Co-producing Research to Support Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauger, G. S.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.; Mitchell, T. P.; Simmonds, J.; Lee, S. Y.; Hegewisch, K.; Warner, M.; Won, J.

    2017-12-01

    King County has experienced 12 federally declared flood disasters since 1990, and tens of thousands of county residents commute through, live, and work in floodplains. In addition to flooding, stormwater is a critical management challenge, exacerbated by aging infrastructure, combined sewer and drainage systems, and continued development. Even absent the effects of climate change these are challenging management issues. Recent studies clearly point to an increase in precipitation extremes for the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Warner et al. 2015). Yet very little information is available on the magnitude and spatial distribution of this change. Others clearly show that local-scale changes in extreme precipitation can only be accurately quantified with dynamical downscaling, i.e.: using a regional climate model. This talk will describe a suite of research and adaptation efforts developed in a close collaboration between King County and the UW Climate Impacts Group. Building on past collaborations, research efforts were defined in collaboration with King County managers, addressing three key science questions: (1) How are the mesoscale variations in extreme precipitation modulated by changes in large-scale weather conditions? (2) How will precipitation extremes change? This was assessed via two new high-resolution regional model projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model (Skamarock et al. 2005). (3) What are the implications for stormwater and flooding in King County? This was assessed by both exploring the statistics of hourly precipitation extremes in the new projections, as well as new hydrologic modeling to assess the implications for river flooding. The talk will present results from these efforts, review the implications for King County planning and infrastructure, and synthesize lessons learned and opportunities for additional work.

  8. Comparison of regional index flood estimation procedures based on the extreme value type I distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Thomas Rodding; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2002-01-01

    the prediction uncertainty and that the presence of intersite correlation tends to increase the uncertainty. A simulation study revealed that in regional index-flood estimation the method of probability weighted moments is preferable to method of moment estimation with regard to bias and RMSE.......A comparison of different methods for estimating T-year events is presented, all based on the Extreme Value Type I distribution. Series of annual maximum flood from ten gauging stations at the New Zealand South island have been used. Different methods of predicting the 100-year event...... and the connected uncertainty have been applied: At-site estimation and regional index-flood estimation with and without accounting for intersite correlation using either the method of moments or the method of probability weighted moments for parameter estimation. Furthermore, estimation at ungauged sites were...

  9. Slope mass movements on SPOT satellite images: A case of the Železniki area (W Slovenia) after flash floods in September 2007

    OpenAIRE

    Mateja Jemec; Matjaž Mikoš

    2008-01-01

    Flash floods in Slovenia, which was exposed on September 18th 2007, demanded 6 lives, several thousand houses and over one thousand kilometres of roads were damaged and more also than 50 bridges. The highest amount of rain fell at west and north-west parts of Slovenia (northern Primorska region and southern Gorenjska region),from where heavy rain spread eastwards over the central Slovenia and in east part of Slovenia. In the article we focused on area of western and north-western part of Slov...

  10. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  11. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. White

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal. Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  12. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  13. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Evaluation of precipitation extremes and floods and comparison between their temporal distributions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Valeriánová, A.; Crhová, L.; Holtanová, E.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 1 (2015), s. 281-310 ISSN 1812-2108 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * floods Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sci ences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sci ences https://www.hydrol-earth-syst- sci .net/19/4641/2015/hessd-12-281-2015.pdf

  15. Study of the adaptive refinement on an open source 2D shallow-water flow solver using quadtree grid for flash flood simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirstetter, G.; Popinet, S.; Fullana, J. M.; Lagrée, P. Y.; Josserand, C.

    2015-12-01

    The full resolution of shallow-water equations for modeling flash floods may have a high computational cost, so that majority of flood simulation softwares used for flood forecasting uses a simplification of this model : 1D approximations, diffusive or kinematic wave approximations or exotic models using non-physical free parameters. These kind of approximations permit to save a lot of computational time by sacrificing in an unquantified way the precision of simulations. To reduce drastically the cost of such 2D simulations by quantifying the lost of precision, we propose a 2D shallow-water flow solver built with the open source code Basilisk1, which is using adaptive refinement on a quadtree grid. This solver uses a well-balanced central-upwind scheme, which is at second order in time and space, and treats the friction and rain terms implicitly in finite volume approach. We demonstrate the validity of our simulation on the case of the flood of Tewkesbury (UK) occurred in July 2007, as shown on Fig. 1. On this case, a systematic study of the impact of the chosen criterium for adaptive refinement is performed. The criterium which has the best computational time / precision ratio is proposed. Finally, we present the power law giving the computational time in respect to the maximum resolution and we show that this law for our 2D simulation is close to the one of 1D simulation, thanks to the fractal dimension of the topography. [1] http://basilisk.fr/

  16. Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    J. A. Marengo * and J. C. Espinoza** * Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação, Sao Paulo, Brazil ** Subdirección de Ciencias de la Atmósfera e Hidrósfera (SCAH), Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as 'once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Niña/El Niño events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st

  17. AP1000R design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

    2012-01-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000 R nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel which is

  18. AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

  19. Dynamic Water Storage during Flash Flood Events in the Mountainous Area of Rio de Janeiro/Brazil - Case study: Piabanha River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araujo, L.; Silva, F. P. D.; Moreira, D. M.; Vásquez P, I. L.; Justi da Silva, M. G. A.; Fernandes, N.; Rotunno Filho, O. C.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods are characterized by a rapid rise in water levels, high flow rates and large amounts of debris. Several factors have relevance to the occurrence of these phenomena, including high precipitation rates, terrain slope, soil saturation degree, vegetation cover, soil type, among others. In general, the greater the precipitation intensity, the more likely is the occurrence of a significant increase in flow rate. Particularly on steep and rocky plains or heavily urbanized areas, relatively small rain rates can trigger a flash flood event. In addition, high rain rates in short time intervals can temporarily saturate the surface soil layer acting as waterproofing and favoring the occurrence of greater runoff rates due to non-infiltration of rainwater into the soil. Thus, although precipitation is considered the most important factor for flooding, the interaction between rainfall and the soil can sometimes be of greater importance. In this context, this work investigates the dynamic storage of water associated with flash flood events for Quitandinha river watershed, a tributary of Piabanha river, occurred between 2013 and 2014, by means of water balance analyses applied to three watersheds of varying magnitudes (9.25 km², 260 km² and 429 km²) along the rainy season under different time steps (hourly and daily) using remotely sensed and observational precipitation data. The research work is driven by the hypothesis of a hydrologically active bedrock layer, as the watershed is located in a humid region, having intemperate (fractured) rock layer, just below a shallow soil layer, in the higher part of the basin where steep slopes prevail. The results showed a delay of the variation of the dynamic storage in relation to rainfall peaks and water levels. Such behavior indicates that the surface soil layer, which is not very thick in the region, becomes rapidly saturated along rainfall events. Subsequently, the water infiltrates into the rocky layer and the water

  20. MODIS-based multi-parametric platform for mapping of flood affected areas. Case study: 2006 Danube extreme flood in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craciunescu Vasile

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flooding remains the most widely distributed natural hazard in Europe, leading to significant economic and social impact. Earth observation data is presently capable of making fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Technological advance makes development of online services able to process high volumes of satellite data without the need of dedicated desktop software licenses possible. The main objective of the case study is to present and evaluate a methodology for mapping of flooded areas based on MODIS satellite images derived indices and using state-of-the-art geospatial web services. The methodology and the developed platform were tested with data for the historical flood event that affected the Danube floodplain in 2006 in Romania. The results proved that, despite the relative coarse resolution, MODIS data is very useful for mapping the development flooded area in large plain floods. Moreover it was shown, that the possibility to adapt and combine the existing global algorithms for flood detection to fit the local conditions is extremely important to obtain accurate results.

  1. International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Jubach

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

  2. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  3. Synoptic and Climate Attributions of the December 2015 Extreme Flooding in Missouri, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boniface Fosu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Three days of extreme rainfall in late December 2015 in the middle of the Mississippi River led to severe flooding in Missouri. The meteorological context of this event was analyzed through synoptic diagnosis into the atmospheric circulation that contributed to the precipitation event’s severity. The midlatitude synoptic waves that induced the extreme precipitation and ensuing flooding were traced to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO, which amplified the trans-Pacific Rossby wave train likely associated with the strong El Niño of December 2015. Though the near-historical El Niño contributed to a quasi-stationary trough over the western U.S. that induced the high precipitation event, an interference between the MJO and El Niño teleconnections resulted in a relatively weak atmospheric signature of the El Niño in comparison to that of the MJO. The influence of anthropogenic climate change on the relationship between ENSO and precipitation across several central U.S. states was also investigated using 17 CMIP5 models from the historical single-forcing experiments. A regime change in ENSO-related precipitation anomalies appears to have occurred, from being negatively correlated before 1950 to positive and significantly correlated after 1970, suggesting a likely effect of anthropogenic warming on the December 2015 extreme precipitation event.

  4. The impact of extreme flooding events and anthropogenic stressors on the macrobenthic communities’ dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, P. G.; Raffaelli, D.; Lillebø, A. I.; Verdelhos, T.; Pardal, M. A.

    2008-02-01

    Marine and coastal environments are among the most ecologically and socio-economically important habitats on Earth. However, climate change associated with a variety of anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) may interact to produce combined impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, which in turn will have profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. Over period 1980-2000, the environment of the Mondego estuary, Portugal, has deteriorated through eutrophication, manifested in the replacement of seagrasses by opportunistic macroalgae, degradation of water quality and increased turbidity, and the system has also experienced extreme flood events. A restoration plan was implemented in 1998 which aimed to reverse the eutrophication effects, especially to restore the original natural seagrass ( Zostera noltii) community. This paper explores the interactions between extreme weather events (e.g. intense floods) and anthropogenic stressors (e.g. eutrophication) on the dynamics of the macrobenthic assemblages and the socio-economic implications that follow. We found that during the previous decade, the intensification of extreme flooding events had significant effects on the structure and functioning of macrobenthic communities, specifically a decline in total biomass, a decline in species richness and a decline in suspension feeders. However, the earlier eutrophication process also strongly modified the macrobenthic community, seen as a decline in species richness, increase in detritivores and a decline in herbivores together with a significant increase in small deposit-feeding polychaetes. After the implementation of the management plan, macrobenthic assemblages seemed to be recovering from eutrophication, but it is argued here that those earlier impacts reduced system stability and the resilience of the macrobenthic assemblages, so that its ability to cope with other stressors was compromised. Thus

  5. Geospatial Analysis for the Determination of Hydro-Morphological Characteristics and Assessment of Flash Flood Potentiality in Arid Coastal Plains: A Case in Southwestern Sinai, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Wahid

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal plains with a unique geographic setting and renewable natural resources are promising for sustainable development; however, these areas may be subjected to some environmental hazards due to their geological setting. One of those hazards is the seasonal flash flood that can threaten existing and future development projects in such critical areas. Southwestern Sinai, Egypt, is a coastal plain that is characterized by complex geological setting an arid climate with seasonal rainfall which can result in a high runoff. The aim of this work is to model spatially the runoff amount and density related to flash flood development and to create a flash flood hazard map of the plain as an example of coastal plain in a desert environment with large and complex hydrologic setting. In this research, ASTER images are used to develop a digital elevation model (DEM and land use/land cover (LULC data sets of the study area. Geographic information system (GIS was used to perform runoff and ash potential flood analyses of the created databases and to show distributed runoff and flooding potential in spatial maps. A module was created in a GIS environment to develop a flash flood potential index map. It was clear that the main two factors controlling runoff amounts and flash flood potential in such kinds of areas are the slope and soil types. The final dataset map procedure by this work can be very helpful in land use planning by highlighting the areas subjected to flash floods.    Análisis Geoespacial para Determinar las Características Hidromorfológicas y Evaluar las Inundaciones Potenciales en Llanuras Costeras Áridas: Caso de Estudio en el Suroccidente de Sinaí, Egipto  Resumen Las llanuras costeras que poseen recursos naturales renovables y una configuración geográfíca única son promisorias para el desarrollo sostenible. Estas áreas, sin embargo, son objeto de algunas amenazas ambientales debido a su escenario geológico. Una de

  6. Simulation of extreme ground water flow in the fractal crack structure of Earth's crust - impact on catastrophic floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukharov, Dmitriy; Aleksey, Kucherik; Tatyana, Trifonova

    2014-05-01

    Recently, the contribution of groundwater in catastrophic floods is the question under discussion [1,2]. The principal problem in such an approach - to analyze the transportation ways for groundwater in dynamics, and especially - the reasons of exit it on land surface. The crackness, being a characteristic property for all rocks, should be associated with the process in respect of unified dynamic system as a river water basin is, taking into account fundamental phenomena of the 3D-crack network development/modification (up to faults) as a transport groundwater system [3]. 2. In the system of fractal cracks (connected with the main channel for groundwater) the formation of extreme flow is possible, i.e. a devastating case occurs by instantaneous flash mechanism. The development of such a process is related to two factors. First, within the main channel of propagation of the groundwater when a motion is turbulent. In accordance with the theory of Kolmogorov [4], we assume that such a turbulence is isotropic. The fact means that both velocity and pressure fields in the water flow have pulsations related to the non-linear energy transfer between the vortices. This approach allows us to determine both that a maximum possible size of the vortices defined by characteristic dimensions of the underground channel and another - a minimum size of their due to process of dissipation. Energy transfer in the eddies formed near a border, is a complex nonlinear process, which we described by using a modernized Prandtl semi-empirical model [5]. Second, the mechanism of groundwater propagation in the system of cracks extending from the main underground channel is described in the frames of the fractal geometry methods [6]. The approach allows to determine the degree of similarity in the crack system, i.e. the ratio of mean diameters and lengths of cracks/faults for each step of decomposition. The fact results in integrated quantitative characteristics of 3D-network in all, by fractal

  7. Hydrological and sedimentary analysis of two recent flash floods in a Mediterranean basin with major changes in land uses and channel shape (Sió River, NE Iberian Peninsula)

    OpenAIRE

    Balasch Solanes, Josep Carles; García-Rodríguez, David; Tuset Mestre, Jordi; Ruiz Bellet, Josep Lluís; Rodríguez-Ochoa, Rafael; Jacquet, Eisharc; Barriendos Valve, Mariano; Castelltort Aiguabella, Xavier; Pino González, David

    2017-01-01

    Two important rain events occurred in November 2015 and November 2016 in the Sió River basin (150 km2), a small tributary of the Segre River, within the Ebro River basin (NE Iberian Peninsula), caused two considerable flash floods. Peer Reviewed

  8. Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

    2013-05-01

    The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a

  9. Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Lavado, C.; Furdada, G.; Marqués, M. A.

    2007-07-01

    This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1) community emergency plans, (2) regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces). Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method underestimated the

  10. Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Fernández-Lavado

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1 community emergency plans, (2 regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces. Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method

  11. Poster abstract: Water level estimation in urban ultrasonic/passive infrared flash flood sensor networks using supervised learning

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa; Claudel, Christian G.

    2014-01-01

    floods occur very rarely, we use a supervised learning approach to estimate the correction to the ultrasonic rangefinder caused by temperature fluctuations. Preliminary data shows that water level can be estimated with an absolute error of less than 2 cm

  12. Assemblage of drosophilids (Diptera, Drosophilidae inhabiting flooded and nonflooded areas in the extreme South of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.B. Duarte

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Several studies on the potential use of drosophilid assemblages as bioindicator systems have been carried out in the last years. Nevertheless, the successful application of these organisms in these systems requires adequate filling of several knowledge gaps. In this sense, little is known about drosophilid assemblages in wetlands and flooded areas. The present study provides the first survey of drosophilid species inhabiting such environments in the extreme South of Brazil and compares general beta-diversity patterns between assemblages of flooded versus nonflooded areas. The specimens were collected with banana-baited traps, and the assemblages recovered in eight wetlands of the southernmost coast of Brazil were compared to those recovered from seven nonflooded areas of the Pampa and Atlantic Forest biomes. A total of 5028 and 2571 individuals encompassing 27 and 37 species were collected in the flooded and nonflooded areas, respectively. The differential species composition patterns presented between these areas was statistically supported, which seems to be related to the lower beta-diversity presented by swamps, especially in regard to dominance patterns. So, the open and climatically harsher environment provided by wetlands possibly constitutes a hostile environment for the entry and, mainly, for the persistence of several native Drosophilidae species, in contrast to some exotic and more plastic species (as Drosophila simulans and Zaprionus indianus. Since the diversity gradient of flooded areas does not seem to be related to the conservation status of the swamp, our results question the use of Drosophilidae species as bioindicators of environmental disturbance and antropic influence in wetlands.

  13. Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquet, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the

  14. Case studies of selected Project "Flash" events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Nicolaides

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is a consequence of the prevailing meteorological situation, the intensity and duration of precipitation, geomorphology, human activities over a geographical region and other factors. Floods result in damage and destruction of infrastructure and private property and, in some cases, in fatalities. Flash floods are sudden and quite localized in extend, characterized by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short period of time and are distinguished from other floods by their degree of severity. The broader knowledge concerning flash floods is useful for the better understanding of the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, as well as the associated physical processes. The wider understanding of flashfloods can form part of an integrated system for short and very short forecasting of these events. In the present study, the synoptic, dynamic and thermodynamic conditions during the development of a baroclinic depression which affected the area of Cyprus on 6 November 2005 are studied. The depression was associated with extreme weather phenomena, such as thunderstorms, a water spout and high precipitation accumulations. The results indicate the importance of the dynamic parameters in the system's development and the thermodynamic analysis has shown the convective potential of the atmosphere.

  15. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  16. Climate Change Impacts on Flood risk in Urban Areas due to Combined Effects of Extreme Precipitation and Sea Surges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle greatly and lead to increases in flood hazards due to both pluvial and fluvial floods as well as sea surges in many regions. The impacts of the individual effects are analysed for a catchment in Greater Copenhagen. Based on both the present...... surges. Presently the most important hazard is due to extreme precipitation. However, due to climate change impacts the future most important hazard is due to sea surges. The increase in probability of floods is substantial over a 70 year horizon and actions must be taken to decrease either the hazards...

  17. Prediction of extreme floods in the Central Andes by means of Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boers, Niklas; Bookhagen, Bodo; Barbosa, Henrique; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen; Marengo, Jose

    2014-05-01

    Based on a non-linear synchronisation measure and complex network theory, we present a novel framework for the prediction of extreme events of spatially embedded, interrelated time series. This method is general in the sense that it can be applied to any type of spatially sampled time series with significant interrelations, ranging from climate observables to biological or stock market data. In this presentation, we apply our method to extreme rainfall in South America and show how this leads to the prediction of more than 60% (90% during El Niño conditions) of extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes of Bolivia and northern Argentina, with only 1% false alarms. From paleoclimatic to decadal time scales, the Central Andes continue to be subject to pronounced changes in climatic conditions. In particular, our and past work shows that frequency as well as magnitudes of extreme rainfall events have increased significantly during past decades, calling for a better understanding of the involved climatic mechanisms. Due to their large spatial extend and occurrence at high elevations, these extreme events often lead to severe floods and landslides with disastrous socioeconomic impacts. They regularly affect tens of thousands of people and produce estimated costs of the order of several hundred million USD. Alongside with the societal value of predicting natural hazards, our study provides insights into the responsible climatic features and suggests interactions between Rossby waves in polar regions and large scale (sub-)tropical moisture transport as a driver of subseasonal variability of the South American monsoon system. Predictable extreme events result from the propagation of extreme rainfall from the region of Buenos Aires towards the Central Andes given characteristic atmospheric conditions. Our results indicate that the role of frontal systems originating from Rossby waves in polar latitudes is much more dominant for controlling extreme rainfall in

  18. Modulation of Extreme Flood Levels by Impoundment Significantly Offset by Floodplain Loss Downstream of the Three Gorges Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Xuefei; Dai, Zhijun; Darby, Stephen E.; Gao, Shu; Wang, Jie; Jiang, Weiguo

    2018-04-01

    River flooding—the world's most significant natural hazard—is likely to increase under anthropogenic climate change. Most large rivers have been regulated by damming, but the extent to which these impoundments can mitigate extreme flooding remains uncertain. Here the catastrophic 2016 flood on the Changjiang River is first analyzed to assess the effects of both the Changjiang's reservoir cascade and the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), the world's largest hydraulic engineering project on downstream flood discharge and water levels. We show that the Changjiang's reservoir cascade impounded over 30.0 × 103 m3/s of flow at the peak of the flood on 25 July 2016, preventing the occurrence of what would otherwise have been the second largest flood ever recorded in the reach downstream of the TGD. Half of this flood water storage was retained by the TGD alone, meaning that impoundment by the TGD reduced peak water levels at the Datong hydrometric station (on 25 July) by 1.47 m, compared to pre-TGD conditions. However, downstream morphological changes, in particular, extensive erosion of the natural floodplain, offset this reduction in water level by 0.22 m, so that the full beneficial impact of floodwater retention by the TGD was not fully realized. Our results highlight how morphological adjustments downstream of large dams may inhibit their full potential to mitigate extreme flood risk.

  19. Poster abstract: Water level estimation in urban ultrasonic/passive infrared flash flood sensor networks using supervised learning

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa

    2014-04-01

    This article describes a machine learning approach to water level estimation in a dual ultrasonic/passive infrared urban flood sensor system. We first show that an ultrasonic rangefinder alone is unable to accurately measure the level of water on a road due to thermal effects. Using additional passive infrared sensors, we show that ground temperature and local sensor temperature measurements are sufficient to correct the rangefinder readings and improve the flood detection performance. Since floods occur very rarely, we use a supervised learning approach to estimate the correction to the ultrasonic rangefinder caused by temperature fluctuations. Preliminary data shows that water level can be estimated with an absolute error of less than 2 cm. © 2014 IEEE.

  20. Hydroclimatology of Extreme Precipitation and Floods Originating from the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Jennifer

    This study explores seasonal patterns and structures of moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that lead to extreme large-scale precipitation and floods over land. Storm tracks, such as the tropical cyclone tracks in the Northern Atlantic Ocean, are an example of moisture transport pathways. In the first part, North Atlantic cyclone tracks are clustered by the moments to identify common traits in genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonal patterns, and trends. The clustering results of part one show the dynamical behavior differences of tropical cyclones born in different parts of the basin. Drawing on these conclusions, in the second part, statistical track segment model is developed for simulation of tracks to improve reliability of tropical cyclone risk probabilities. Moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored though the specific regional flood dynamics of the U.S. Midwest and the United Kingdom in part three of the dissertation. Part I. Classifying North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Tracks by Mass Moments. A new method for classifying tropical cyclones or similar features is introduced. The cyclone track is considered as an open spatial curve, with the wind speed or power information along the curve considered as a mass attribute. The first and second moments of the resulting object are computed and then used to classify the historical tracks using standard clustering algorithms. Mass moments allow the whole track shape, length and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. Tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin are clustered with K-means by mass moments producing an optimum of six clusters with differing genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonality, and trends. Even variables that are not directly clustered show distinct separation between clusters. A trend analysis confirms recent conclusions

  1. Hot Flashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hot flashes Overview Hot flashes are sudden feelings of warmth, which are usually most intense over the face, neck and chest. Your skin might redden, as if you're blushing. Hot flashes can also cause sweating, and if you ...

  2. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  3. A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

    2015-04-01

    Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of

  4. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  5. Infiltration Losses Calculated for the Flash Flood in the Upper Catchment of Geru River, Galaţi County, Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balan Isabela

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available MIKE software created by Danish Institute of Hydraulics can be used to perform mathematical modelling of rainfall-runoff process on the hillslopes, resulting in a runoff hydrograph in the closing section of a catchment. The software includes a unitary hydrograph method - UHM in the hydrological module Rainfall - Runoff. Excess rainfall is routed to the river and transited through unit hydrograph method. The model divides the flood generating precipitation in excess rainfall (net rainfall and losses (infiltration.

  6. From Drought to Flood: Biological Responses of Large River Salmonids and Emergent Management Challenges Under California's Extreme Hydroclimatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, C.

    2017-12-01

    California's hydroclimatic regime is characterized by extreme interannual variability including periodic, multi-year droughts and winter flooding sequences. Statewide, water years 2012-2016 were characterized by extreme drought followed by likely one of the wettest years on record in water year 2017. Similar drought-flood patterns have occurred multiple times both in the contemporary empirical record and reconstructed climate records. Both the extreme magnitude and rapid succession of these hydroclimatic periods pose difficult challenges for water managers and regulatory agencies responsible for providing instream flows to protect and recover threatened and endangered fish species. Principal among these riverine fish species are federally listed winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Central Valley steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and the pelagic species Delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Poor instream conditions from 2012-2016 resulted in extremely low abundance estimates and poor overall fish health, and while fish monitoring results from water year 2017 are too preliminary to draw substantive conclusions, early indicators show continued downward population trends despite the historically wet conditions. This poster evaluates California's hydroclimatic conditions over the past decade and quantifies resultant impacts of the 2012-2016 drought and the extremely wet 2017 water year to both adult escapement and juvenile production estimates in California's major inland salmon rivers over that same time span. We will also examine local, state, and federal regulatory actions both in response to the extreme hydroclimatic variability and in preparation for future drought-flood sequences.

  7. Extreme flood event reconstruction spanning the last century in the El Bibane Lagoon (southeastern Tunisia: a multi-proxy approach

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    A. Affouri

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate models project that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency and the severity of some extreme weather events. The flood events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. Recent studies of lagoon sediments have enhanced our knowledge on extreme hydrological events such as palaeo-storms and on their relation with climate change over the last millennium. However, few studies have been undertaken to reconstruct past flood events from lagoon sediments. Here, the past flood activity was investigated using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological and geochemical analysis of surfaces sediments from a southeastern Tunisian catchment in order to trace the origin of sediment deposits in the El Bibane Lagoon. Three sediment sources were identified: marine, fluvial and aeolian. When applying this multi-proxy approach on core BL12-10, recovered from the El Bibane Lagoon, we can see that finer material, a high content of the clay and silt, and a high content of the elemental ratios (Fe ∕ Ca and Ti ∕ Ca characterise the sedimentological signature of the palaeo-flood levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. For the last century, which is the period covered by the BL12-10 short core, three palaeo-flood events were identified. The age of these flood events have been determined by 210Pb and 137Cs chronology and give ages of AD 1995 ± 6, 1970 ± 9 and 1945 ± 9. These results show a good temporal correlation with historical flood events recorded in southern Tunisia in the last century (AD 1932, 1969, 1979 and 1995. Our finding suggests that reconstruction of the history of the hydrological extreme events during the upper Holocene is possible in this location through the use of the sedimentary archives.

  8. Risk of the residents, infrastructure and water bodies by flash floods and sediment transport - assessment for scale of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef; Bauer, Miroslav; Strouhal, Luděk; Jáchymová, Barbora; Devátý, Jan; David, Václav; Koudelka, Petr; Dočkal, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Pluvial and flash floods, related to massive sediment transport become phenomenon nowadays, under conditions of climate changes. Storm events, related to material damages appear at unexpected places and their effective control is only possible in form of prevention. To apply preventive measures, there have to be defined localities with reasonable reliability, which are endangered by surface runoff and sediment transport produced in the subcatchments, often at agriculturally used landscape. Classification of such localities, concerning of potential damages and magnitude of sediment transport shall be also included within the analyses, to design control measures effectively. Large scale project for whole territory of the Czech Republic (ca 80.000 km2) has therefore been granted b the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic, with the aim to define critical points, where interaction between surface runoff connected to massive sediment transport and infrastructure or vulnerable water bodies can occur and to classify them according to potential risk. Advanced GIS routines, based on analyses of land use, soil conditions and morphology had been used to determine the critical points - points, where significant surface runoff occurs and interacts with infrastructure and vulnerable water bodies, based exclusively on the contributing area - flow accumulation. In total, ca 150.000 critical points were determined within the Czech Republic. For each of critical points, its subcatchment had then been analyzed in detail, concerning of soil loss and sediment transport, using simulation model WATEM/SEDEM. The results were used for classification of potential risk of individual critical points, based on mean soil loss within subcatchment, total sediment transport trough the outlet point and subcatchment area. The classification has been done into 5 classes. The boundaries were determined by calibration survey and statistical analysis, performed at three experimental catchments area

  9. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glancy, P.A.

    1994-01-01

    Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second

  10. Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the weights-of-evidence and frequency ratio statistical methods in GIS environment - case study: Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costache, Romulus; Zaharia, Liliana

    2017-06-01

    Given the significant worldwide human and economic losses caused due to floods annually, reducing the negative consequences of these hazards is a major concern in development strategies at different spatial scales. A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential of accelerated surface run-off and consequently, of flash-flood occurrences. The methodology involves assessment and mapping in GIS environment of flash flood potential index (FFPI), by integrating two statistical methods: frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence. The methodology was applied for Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (340 km2), located in the Carpathians Curvature region (Romania). Firstly, the areas with torrential phenomena were identified and the main factors controlling the surface run-off were selected (in this study nine geographical factors were considered). Based on the features of the considered factors, many classes were set for each of them. In the next step, the weights of each class/category of the considered factors were determined, by identifying their spatial relationships with the presence or absence of torrential phenomena. Finally, the weights for each class/category of geographical factors were summarized in GIS, resulting the FFPI values for each of the two statistical methods. These values were divided into five classes of intensity and were mapped. The final results were used to estimate the flash-flood potential and also to identify the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon. Thus, the high and very high values of FFPI characterize more than one-third of the study catchment. The result validation was performed by (i) quantifying the rate of the number of pixels corresponding to the torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating area) and (ii) plotting the ROC (receiver operating

  11. Geomorphic effects and sedimentological record of flash floods in the Copiapó River salt marsh (Atacama coast, Northern Chile)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Manuel; Fernández, Rolando; Izquierdo, Tatiana

    2017-04-01

    The Copiapó River is located South of the Atacama Desert (northern Chile) that is considered one of the most arid areas of the planet. On March 25 2015 this fluvial valley experienced one the largest hydrometeorological events recorded in historical times. The rain, unusually high, favored the run off in fluvial channels and alluvial fans that were dry for decades and triggered the rise and overflow of the Copiapó River at different points along the valley causing severe damages. In this work, we realize a characterization of the geomorphic configuration of the Copiapó River before and after this event with the aim of analyzing the main changes produced in the river mouth, where and extent coastal wetland of high ecological value is developed. The geomorphological mapping show a drastic change in the river mouth with the development of forms related with the river overflow and the flooding of the coastal plain such as levees, activation of abandoned channels, flooding lagoons, widening and deepening of the main channel, foredune rupture and, more importantly, a large mud sheet that covers almost the 80% of the study area, including the wetland and the main coastal dune systems. Just a small area of the wetland, far from the main channel, was not affected by this process as it was protected by the levees formed during the first stages of the overflow. The mud flow facies are homogeneous and consist of a layer of massive silty sands with a maximum thickness of 10-75 cm overlied by 5-20 cm of clay with wavy top and carbonaceous rest. It also presents a wide development of mud cracks and salt crusts. At the same time, 4 stages have been differentiated along the event: 1) arrival to the wetland of the first surge that flows in the channel and flooding of the southern sector of the wetland; 2) flooding of the complete mouth area because of the peak discharge arrival and generalize overflow with and associate muddy facies deposition; 3) erosional stage of the channel

  12. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  13. A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

  14. RAPID Assessment of Extreme Reservoir Sedimentation Resulting from the September 2013 Flood, North St. Vrain Creek, CO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathburn, S. L.; McElroy, B. J.; Wohl, E.; Sutfin, N. A.; Huson, K.

    2014-12-01

    During mid-September 2013, approximately 360 mm of precipitation fell in the headwaters of the North St. Vrain drainage basin, Front Range, CO. Debris flows on steep hillslopes and extensive flooding along North St. Vrain Creek resulted in extreme sedimentation within Ralph Price Reservoir, municipal water supply for the City of Longmont. The event allows comparison of historical sedimentation with that of an unusually large flood because 1) no reservoir flushing has been conducted since dam construction, 2) reservoir stratigraphy chronicles uninterrupted delta deposition, and 3) this is the only on-channel reservoir with unimpeded, natural sediment flux from the Continental Divide to the mountain front in a basin with no significant historic flow modifications and land use impacts. Assessing the flood-related sedimentation prior to any dredging activities included coring the reservoir delta, a bathymetric survey of the delta, resistivity and ground penetrating radar surveys of the subaerial inlet deposit, and surveying tributary deposits. Over the 44-year life of the reservoir, two-thirds of the delta sedimentation is attributed to extreme discharges from the September 2013 storm. Total storm-derived reservoir sedimentation is approximately 275,000 m3, with 81% of that within the gravel-dominated inlet and 17% in the delta. Volumes of deposition within reservoir tributary inlets is negatively correlated with contributing area, possibly due to a lack of storage in these small basins (1-5 km2). Flood-related reservoir sedimentation will be compared to other research quantifying volumes from slope failures evident on post-storm lidar. Analysis of delta core samples will quantify organic carbon flux associated with the extreme discharge and develop a chronology of flood and fire disturbances for North St. Vrain basin. Applications of similar techniques are planned for two older Front Range reservoirs affected by the September flooding to fill knowledge gaps about

  15. Extreme flood estimation by the SCHADEX method in a snow-driven catchment: application to Atnasjø (Norway)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Lawrence, Deborah

    2013-04-01

    The SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation was developed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013), and since 2008, it is the reference method used by Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard usingrainfall-runoff modelling. The MORDOR hydrological model (Garçon, 1999) has thus far been used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. MORDOR is a conceptual, lumped, reservoir model with daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt, and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 15 years, in particular for inflow forecasts for French mountainous catchments. SCHADEX has now also been applied to the Atnasjø catchment (463 km²), a well-documented inland catchment in south-central Norway, dominated by snowmelt flooding during spring/early summer. To support this application, a weather pattern classification based on extreme rainfall was first established for Norway (Fleig, 2012). This classification scheme was then used to build a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern distribution (MEWP), as introduced by Garavaglia et al. (2010) for extreme rainfall estimation. The MORDOR model was then calibrated relative to daily discharge data for Atnasjø. Finally, a SCHADEX simulation was run to build a daily discharge distribution with a sufficient number of simulations for assessing the extreme quantiles. Detailed results are used to illustrate how SCHADEX handles the complex and interacting hydrological processes driving flood generation in this snow driven catchment. Seasonal and monthly distributions, as well as statistics for several thousand simulated events reaching a 1000 years return level

  16. Slope mass movements on SPOT satellite images: A case of the Železniki area (W Slovenia after flash floods in September 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateja Jemec

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods in Slovenia, which was exposed on September 18th 2007, demanded 6 lives, several thousand houses and over one thousand kilometres of roads were damaged and more also than 50 bridges. The highest amount of rain fell at west and north-west parts of Slovenia (northern Primorska region and southern Gorenjska region,from where heavy rain spread eastwards over the central Slovenia and in east part of Slovenia. In the article we focused on area of western and north-western part of Slovenia. The aim of present research was in the first phase to describe methodology to determine landslide occurrences from satellite images before and after natural disaster on Železniki region. Second phase was based on comparison of obtained results with the existing models for prediction of slope mass movements, and finally also to determine identificability of landslide types on a satellite image.Results have shown, that the highest part of obtaining area from supervised and unsupervised classification of satellite images, are comparable with classes of landslide susceptibility, where occurrences of landslide are largest.

  17. The Enhancement of Regional Disaster Management Agencies (BPBD of Sumbawa Regency’s Capability in Flash Flood Management Through Aid Assistance of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nudia Vebina Ayumahani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The need for enhancing capability has a very important significance in effective disaster management activities. Regional Disaster Management Agencies (BPBD of Sumbawa Regency established cooperation with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA in enhancing the capability of flash flood management. The purpose of this research was to review and evaluate the JICA’s aid assistance programs toward BPBD of Sumbawa Regency, hereafter analyze the impact of the programs. Evaluation and analysis of this research were measured by three indicators of capability which is resources, leadership and policy implementation. This research used a qualitative descriptive method and proceed through the source and method triangulation. The researcher used purposive sampling technique in choosing seven informants from BPBD of Sumbawa Regency’s staff. The results showed that JICA’s aid assistance programs towards BPBD of Sumbawa Regency had been achieved by the targets and goals that have been determined. This program has impacted on enhancing the capability of resources that leads to the ability in Mapping, Technical Guidelines (JUKNIS and Disaster Management Plan (RPB. Increasing the capability of Human Resources (HR gives the effect of increasing capability in other fields such as financial resource capability, technical resource capability, leadership capability and policy implementation capability. The main factors in the success of the capability enhancement are the discipline factor of BPBD staff, high willingness to improve capability by BPBD staff, capability- enhancing programs, and clear direction from JICA.

  18. Chronic institutional failure and enhanced vulnerability to flash-floods in the Cuenca Altadel Río Lerma, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güiza, Frida; Simmons, Peter; Burgess, Jacquie; McCall, Michael K

    2016-01-01

    The dominant paradigm in disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies has been seriously contested because of its reliance on interventions based on technocratic expertise. In the Mexican context, the influence of informal practices such as clientelism and cartelisation of the political system produces environmental degradation and vulnerability to disasters within the communities in the study site. This paper contributes to understanding of failed institutional processes and parallel practices that intensify vulnerability to disasters by contrasting the discourses of agents within a peri-urban community in central Mexico. Employing the Situational Analysis Approach as a methodological framework, the study identifies divergent views and practices within the community, leading to different responses to disasters and to different perceptions regarding institutional performance. In addition, it finds that institutional decision-making, based only on scientific and technical expertise, has resulted in unintended consequences that influence ongoing vulnerability to floods in the site under review. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

  19. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  20. Numerical modelling of solid transport caused by an extreme flood: Case of the Hamiz dam failure (Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haddad Ali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Study of solid transport caused by the flow of an extreme flood such as the propagation of dam failure wave aims to simulate the hydrodynamics behaviour of the solid particles contained in the valley during the flood passage. With this intention, we have developed a numerical model which is based on the resolution of the one-dimensional Saint Venant–Exner equations by the implicit finite difference scheme. Numerical stability of liquid phase calculation is checked by the Courant number and De Vries condition for the solid phase. The model has been applied to the Hamiz dam (Algeria which is built in the semi arid zone and presents a major risk of failure. The simulation of several scenarios of dam failure has allowed us to trace the cartography of sediment transport in the valley which is induced by the flood of dam failure.

  1. Determinants of property damage recovery time amongst households affected by an extreme flood event in Metro Manila, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamil Paolo Francisco

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study identified the factors that influence household recovery following an extreme flood event, measured in terms of the length of time to repair, rebuild or replace damaged private property. Data was obtained through a survey of 400 households in Marikina City in Metro Manila, Philippines. Results from the empirical analysis indicated that household income, access to credit (borrowing, the use of a flood alarm system, access to safe shelter, membership in a community organisation, adoption of disaster-specific anticipatory measures and adoption of general preventive measures significantly reduced the time it took for affected households to recover from property damage. Evacuation, relief aid, type of housing, education, household size and frequency of flooding in the area did not have significant effects.

  2. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  3. Impacts of Extreme Flooding on Hydrologic Connectivity and Water Quality in the Atlantic Coastal Plain and Implications for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riveros-Iregui, D. A.; Moser, H. A.; Christenson, E. C.; Gray, J.; Hedgespeth, M. L.; Jass, T. L.; Lowry, D. S.; Martin, K.; Nichols, E. G.; Stewart, J. R.; Emanuel, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought extreme flooding to eastern North Carolina, including record regional flooding along the Lumber River and its tributaries in the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Situated in a region dominated by large-scale crop-cultivation and containing some of the highest densities of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and animal processing operations in the U.S., the Lumber River watershed is also home to the Lumbee Tribe of American Indians. Most of the tribe's 60,000+ members live within or immediately adjacent to the 3,000 km2 watershed where they maintain deep cultural and historical connections. The region, however, also suffers from high rates of poverty and large disparities in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, conditions exacerbated by Hurricane Matthew. We summarize ongoing efforts to characterize the short- and long-term impacts of extreme flooding on water quality in (1) low gradient streams and riverine wetlands of the watershed; (2) surficial aquifers, which provide water resources for the local communities, and (3) public drinking water supplies, which derive from deeper, confined aquifers but whose infrastructure suffered widespread damage following Hurricane Matthew. Our results provide mechanistic understanding of flood-related connectivity across multiple hydrologic compartments, and provide important implications for how hydrological natural hazards combine with land use to drive water quality impacts and affect vulnerable populations.

  4. Flooding and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  5. A comparison of the flood precipitation episode in August 2002 with historic extreme precipitation events on the Czech territory

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řezáčová, Daniela; Kašpar, Marek; Müller, Miloslav; Sokol, Zbyněk; Kakos, Vilibald; Hanslian, David; Pešice, Petr

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 77, - (2005), s. 354-366 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IBS3042101; GA MŽP(CZ) SA/650/4/03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Precipitation * Summer floods * Czech territory * Hydro-meteorological conditions * Extremeness of meteorological quantities * Distribution function Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.481, year: 2005

  6. Alluvial flash-flood stratigraphy of a large dryland river: the Luni River, Thar Desert, Western India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carling, Paul; Leclair, Suzanne; Robinson, Ruth

    2017-04-01

    Detailed descriptions of the fluvial architecture of large dryland rivers are few, which hinders the understanding of stratigraphic development in aggradational settings. The aim of this study was to obtain new generic insight of the fluvial dynamics and resultant stratigraphy of such a river. The novelty of this investigation is that an unusually extensive and deep section across a major active dryland river was logged and the dated stratigraphy related to the behaviour of the discharge regimen. The results should help improve understanding of the stratigraphic development in modern dryland rivers and in characterizing oil, gas and groundwater reservoirs in the dryland geological record more generally. The Luni River is the largest river in the Thar desert, India, but yet details of the channel stratigraphy are sparse. Discharges can reach 14,000 m3s-1 but the bed is dry most of the year. GPS positioning and mm-resolution surveys within a 700m long, 5m deep trench enabled logging and photography of the strata associations, dated using optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL). The deposits consist of planar, sandy, upper-stage plane bed lamination and low-angle stratification, sandwiching less-frequent dune trough cross-sets. Mud clasts are abundant at any elevation. Water-ripple cross-sets or silt-clay layers occur rarely, usually near the top of sections. Aeolian dune cross-sets also appear sparsely at higher elevations. Consequently, the majority of preserved strata are due to supercritical flows. Localized deep scour causes massive collapse and soft-sediment deformation. Scour holes are infilled by rapidly-deposited massive sands adjacent to older bedded-deposits. Within bedform phase diagrams, estimated hydraulic parameters indicate a dominance of the upper-stage plane bed state, but the presence of dune cross-sets is also related to the flood hydrograph. Repeated deep scour results in units of deposition of different OSL ages (50 to 500 years BP) found at

  7. Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Romero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The HYDROPTIMET case studies (9–10 June 2000 Catalogne, 8–9 September 2002 Cévennes and 24–26 November 2002 Piémont appear to encompass a sort of prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. In Catalogne, the convective event was driven by a low-pressure system of relatively small dimensions developed over the mediterranean coast of Spain that moved into southern France. For Cévennes, the main circulation pattern was a synoptic-scale Atlantic low which induced a persistent southerly low-level jet (LLJ over the western Mediterranean, strengthened by the Alps along its western flank, which guaranteed continuous moisture supply towards southern France where the long-lived, quasistationary convective system developed. The long Piémont episode, very representative of the most severe alpine flash flood events, shares some similarities with the Cévennes situation during its first stage in that it was controlled by a southerly moist LLJ associated with a large-scale disturbance located to the west. However, these circulation features were transient aspects and during the second half of the episode the situation was dominated by a cyclogenesis process over the Mediterranean which gave place to a mesoscale-size depression at surface that acted to force new heavy rain over the slopes of the Alps and maritime areas. That is, the Piémont episode can be catalogued as of mixed type with regard to the responsible surface disturbance, evolving from a large-scale pattern with remote action (like Cévennes to a mesoscale pattern with local action (like Catalogne. A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rain, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low-levels. Being aware of the

  8. On the nature of rainfall in dry climate: Space-time patterns of convective rain cells over the Dead Sea region and their relations with synoptic state and flash flood generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belachsen, Idit; Marra, Francesco; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2017-04-01

    Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms-1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north

  9. Flash x-ray

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Q.; Pellinen, D.

    1976-01-01

    The complementary techniques of flash x-ray radiography (FXR) and flash x-ray diffraction (FXD) provide access to a unique domain in nondestructive materials testing. FXR is useful in studies of macroscopic properties during extremely short time intervals, and FXD, the newer technique, is used in studies of microscopic properties. Although these techniques are similar in many respects, there are some substantial differences. FXD generally requires low-voltage, line-radiation sources and extremely accurate timing; FXR is usually less demanding. Phenomena which can be profitably studied by FXR often can also be studied by FXD to permit a complete materials characterization

  10. Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

    2017-12-01

    Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

  11. Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

    2016-04-01

    Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

  12. When high waters recede and the floodplain reemerges: Evaluating the lingering effects of extreme flooding on stream nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, J.; Emanuel, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    In 2016 Hurricane Matthew brought immense flooding and devastation to the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River basin. Some impacts are obvious, such as deserted homes and businesses, but other impacts, including long-term environmental, are uncertain. Extreme flooding throughout the basin established temporary hydrologic connectivity between aquatic environments and upland sources of nutrients and other pollutants. Though 27% of the basin is covered by wetlands, hurricane-induced flooding was so intense that wetlands may have had no opportunity to mitigate delivery of nutrients into surface waters. As a result, how Hurricane Matthew impacted nitrate retention and uptake in the Lumbee River remains uncertain. The unknown magnitude of nitrate transported into the Lumbee River from surrounding sources may have lingering impacts on nitrogen cycling in this stream. With these potential impacts in mind, we conducted a Lagrangian water quality sampling campaign to assess the ability of the Lumbee River to retain and process nitrogen following Hurricane Matthew. We collected samples before and after flooding and compare first order nitrogen uptake kinetics of both periods. The analysis and comparisons allow us to evaluate the long-term impacts of Hurricane Matthew on nitrogen cycling after floodwaters recede.

  13. Landscape changes as a factor affecting the course and consequences of extreme floods in the Otava river basin, Czech Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhammer, Jakub; Vilímek, Vít

    2008-09-01

    The paper presents the analysis of anthropogenical modifications of the landscape in relation to the course and consequences of floods. The research was conducted in the Otava river basin which represents the core zone of the extreme flood in August 2002 in Central Europe. The analysis was focused on the key indicators of landscape modification potentially affecting the runoff process - the long-term changes of land-use, changes of land cover structure, land drainage, historical shortening of the river network and the modifications of streams and floodplains. The information on intensity and spatial distribution of modifications was derived from different data sources--historical maps, available GIS data, remote sensing and field mapping. The results revealed a high level of spatial diversity of anthropogenical modifications in different parts of the river basin. The intensive modifications in most of indicators were concentrated in the lowland region of the river basin due to its agricultural use; however important changes were also recorded in the headwater region of the basin. The high spatial diversity of the modifications may result in their varying effect on the course and consequences of floods in different parts of the river basin. This effect is demonstrated by the cluster analysis based on the matrix of indicators of stream and floodplain modification, physiogeographical characteristics and geomorphological evidences of the flood in August 2002, derived from the individual thematic layers using GIS.

  14. Consequences of the river valley bottom transformation after extreme flood (on the example of the Niida River, Japan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botavin, D.; Golosov, V.; Konoplev, A.; Wakiyama, Y.

    2018-01-01

    Detailed study of different sections of floodplain was undertaken in the Niida River basin (Fukushima Prefecture) after an extreme flood event which occurred in the middle of September 2015. The upstream part of the basin is located in the area with very high level of radionuclide contamination after the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP. Field and GIS methods were used, including direct measurement of the depth of fresh sediment and its area, with soil descriptions for the typical floodplain sections, measurement of dose rates, interpretation of space images for a few time intervals (before and after flood event) with the following evaluation of spatial changes in deposition for different floodplain sections. In addition, results of quantitative assessment of sedimentation rates and soil radionuclide contamination were applied for understanding the effect of extreme flood on alluvial soils of the different sections. It was established that the maximum sedimentation rates (20-50 cm/event) occurred in the middle part of the lower reach of the Niida River and in some locations of the upper reaches. Dose rates had reduced considerably for all the areas with high sedimentation because the top soil layers with high radionuclide contamination were buried under fresh sediments produced mostly due to bank erosion and mass movements.

  15. Coupled large-eddy simulation and morphodynamics of a large-scale river under extreme flood conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khosronejad, Ali; Sotiropoulos, Fotis; Stony Brook University Team

    2016-11-01

    We present a coupled flow and morphodynamic simulations of extreme flooding in 3 km long and 300 m wide reach of the Mississippi River in Minnesota, which includes three islands and hydraulic structures. We employ the large-eddy simulation (LES) and bed-morphodynamic modules of the VFS-Geophysics model to investigate the flow and bed evolution of the river during a 500 year flood. The coupling of the two modules is carried out via a fluid-structure interaction approach using a nested domain approach to enhance the resolution of bridge scour predictions. The geometrical data of the river, islands and structures are obtained from LiDAR, sub-aqueous sonar and in-situ surveying to construct a digital map of the river bathymetry. Our simulation results for the bed evolution of the river reveal complex sediment dynamics near the hydraulic structures. The numerically captured scour depth near some of the structures reach a maximum of about 10 m. The data-driven simulation strategy we present in this work exemplifies a practical simulation-based-engineering-approach to investigate the resilience of infrastructures to extreme flood events in intricate field-scale riverine systems. This work was funded by a Grant from Minnesota Dept. of Transportation.

  16. Extreme Precipitation and Flooding: Exposure Characterization and the Association Between Exposure and Mortality in 108 United States Communities, 1987-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severson, R. L.; Peng, R. D.; Anderson, G. B.

    2017-12-01

    There is substantial evidence that extreme precipitation and flooding are serious threats to public health and safety. These threats are predicted to increase with climate change. Epidemiological studies investigating the health effects of these events vary in the methods used to characterize exposure. Here, we compare two sources of precipitation data (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) station-based and North American Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS-2) Reanalysis data-based) for estimating exposure to extreme precipitation and two sources of flooding data, based on United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gages and the NOAA Storm Events database. We investigate associations between each of the four exposure metrics and short-term risk of four causes of mortality (accidental, respiratory-related, cardiovascular-related, and all-cause) in the United States from 1987 through 2005. Average daily precipitation values from the two precipitation data sources were moderately correlated (Spearman's rho = 0.74); however, values from the two data sources were less correlated when comparing binary metrics of exposure to extreme precipitation days (Jaccard index (J) = 0.35). Binary metrics of daily flood exposure were poorly correlated between the two flood data sources (Spearman's rho = 0.07; J = 0.05). There was little correlation between extreme precipitation exposure and flood exposure in study communities. We did not observe evidence of a positive association between any of the four exposure metrics and risk of any of the four mortality outcomes considered. Our results suggest, due to the observed lack of agreement between different extreme precipitation and flood metrics, that exposure to extreme precipitation may not serve as an effective surrogate for exposures related to flooding. Furthermore, It is possible that extreme precipitation and flood exposures may often be too localized to allow accurate exposure assessment at the

  17. Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

    2015-06-01

    Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

  18. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  19. The RHYTMME system: an operational real-time warning and mapping system for flash floods, debris flows, landslide and rock falls in Southeastern France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouchier, Catherine; Mériaux, Patrice; Atger, Frédéric; Ecrepont, Stéphane; Liébault, Frédéric; Bertrand, Mélanie; Bel, Coraline; Batista, Dominique; Azemard, Pierre; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Javelle, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    , 2013b; Bertrand, 2014). It enables to identify, during intense events, the reaches the more likely to generate and/or to spread debris flow and the areas the more likely to generate landslide and/or rock falls. The RHYTMME warning and mapping system is now fully operational. It is currently being provided to local authorities (City councils, River boards, …) as well as State authorities in charge of risk managements in the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur administrative area. Training sessions are organized in order to help these end-users to handle the system. References Arnaud P., Fine J.-A. and Lavabre J. (2007). An hourly rainfall generation model applicable to all types of climate. Atmospheric Research 85(2): 230-242. Batista D., Azémard P., Boutry M. (2013). Prévision de l'aléa glissement de terrain et analyse statistique des facteurs de prédisposition par l'outil SIG, sur la région Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. Journées Aléas Gravitaires, 17 et 18/9/2013 - Grenoble, 11 p. Batista D., Azémard P., Rougé A.C., Dumalin M., Rault C. (2013). Prévision de l'aléa chute de blocs, analyse statistique des facteurs de prédisposition et des critères de déclenchement sur la région Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. Journées Aléas Gravitaires, 17 et 18/9/2013 - Grenoble, 11 p. Bertrand M. (2014). Approches régionales de la susceptibilité torrentielle dans les Alpes du Sud. Thèse de Doctorat, École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, 162 pp. Javelle P., Demargne J., Defrance D., Pansu J., Arnaud P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: A case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59 (7): 1390-1402. Westrelin S., Mériaux P., Dalle S., Fradon B., Jamet G. (2013). Déploiement d'un réseau de radars pour anticiper les risques hydro-météorologiques, La Météorologie 8 (83): 69-79.

  20. Dissolved Organic Carbon and Mercury Exports during Extreme Flooding in South Carolina induced by Hurricane Joaquin, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, A. T.; Bao, S.; Zhang, H.; Tsui, M. T. K.; Ruecker, A.; Uzun, H.; Karanfil, T.

    2016-12-01

    ) few days after the peak flow. Based on the model simulation and field sample collection, we estimated the loadings of DOM and THg exported from this extreme flooding event.

  1. The flash flood event in the catchment of the river Weisseritz (eastern Erzgebirge, Saxony) from 12.-14. August 2002 - meteorological and hydrological reasons, damage assesment and disaster managment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, V.; Bernhofer, Ch.

    2003-04-01

    Between 12. and 14. August 2002 the region of eastern Erzgebirge (Saxony/Eastern Germany) was affected by the heaviest rainfall event recorded since beginning of the measuring period in 1883. The synoptic reason of this event was the advective precipitation due to the strong and very slowly shifting Vb-low "Ilse" combined with a noticeable topographic intensification by north-westerly winds. All stations in the catchment area of the river Weisseritz recorded new all-time records. E.g., at the meteorological station Zinnwald-Georgenfeld situated at the crest of eastern Erzgebirge a daily sum of 312 mm was measured for the 13. August. This value is close to the maximum physically possible rainfall. The intensive rainfall in the catchments of Rote Weisseritz and Wilde Weisseritz led to unexperienced heavy flash floods with large material transport and flow damages. The buffer effect of the existing dam systems was comparatively small because the reserved retaining capacity for flood protection was only about 20 percent of the total capacity. The reservoirs filled quickly due to the very high maximum inflow. So a long-time overflow of the dam system occurred with a maximum of about 300 cubic meters per second at the combined river Weisseritz through the cities of Freital and Dresden (This situation led, e.g., to the flooding of Central Railway Station in Dresden). This water flow is comparable with a medium flow rate of the river Elbe in Dresden, and it is about 300 times higher than the normal drain of the river Weisseritz in Freital! The material damages in the Weisseritz region account for several hundred millions EURO, and several causalties occurred. The damages of the University buildings in Tharandt (including one building of the Department of Meteorology) account for 15 millions EURO alone. The disaster management during the flood was not optimal. For many people, e.g. in Tharandt, there was neither an officially warning nor an organised rescue of movable goods

  2. Flash grundkursus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    Flash er et programmeringssprog  og kan som sådant ikke noget i sig selv. Kursets mål er, at give den studerende et grundlæggende kendskab til Flash, så det kan bruges til præsentationer på skærm og til produktion af hjemmesider. På kurset arbejdes der med billede, grafik, lyd, video og interakti...

  3. Effects of extreme floods on the Daphnia ephippial egg bank in a long narrow reservoir

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vaníčková, Ivana; Seďa, Jaromír; Macháček, Jiří; Petrusek, A.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 70, č. 2 (2011), s. 369-377 ISSN 1129-5767. [International Conference on Invertebrate Reproduction and Development in the Age of Genetic Modifications. Praha, 16.08.2010-20.08.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/04/0190; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA600960901; GA AV ČR(CZ) 1QS600170504 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60170517 Keywords : resting eggs * ephippium * flood * canyon-shaped reservoir * Daphnia longispina complex Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.207, year: 2011

  4. Large wood recruitment processes and transported volumes in Swiss mountain streams during the extreme flood of August 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steeb, Nicolas; Rickenmann, Dieter; Badoux, Alexandre; Rickli, Christian; Waldner, Peter

    2017-02-01

    The extreme flood event that occurred in August 2005 was the most costly (documented) natural hazard event in the history of Switzerland. The flood was accompanied by the mobilization of > 69,000 m3 of large wood (LW) throughout the affected area. As recognized afterward, wood played an important role in exacerbating the damages, mainly because of log jams at bridges and weirs. The present study aimed at assessing the risk posed by wood in various catchments by investigating the amount and spatial variability of recruited and transported LW. Data regarding LW quantities were obtained by field surveys, remote sensing techniques (LiDAR), and GIS analysis and was subsequently translated into a conceptual model of wood transport mass balance. Detailed wood budgets and transport diagrams were established for four study catchments of Swiss mountain streams, showing the spatial variability of LW recruitment and deposition. Despite some uncertainties with regard to parameter assumptions, the sum of reconstructed wood input and observed deposition volumes agree reasonably well. Mass wasting such as landslides and debris flows were the dominant recruitment processes in headwater streams. In contrast, LW recruitment from lateral bank erosion became significant in the lower part of mountain streams where the catchment reached a size of about 100 km2. According to our analysis, 88% of the reconstructed total wood input was fresh, i.e., coming from living trees that were recruited from adjacent areas during the event. This implies an average deadwood contribution of 12%, most of which was estimated to have been in-channel deadwood entrained during the flood event.

  5. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  6. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a case study for the German Bight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Staneva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave–current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  7. Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

    OpenAIRE

    Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

    2005-01-01

    The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

  8. Hydrological and meteorological extremes derived from taxation records: the estates of Brtnice, Třebíč and Velké Meziříčí, 1706–1849

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dolák, L.; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, H.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 58, č. 8 (2013), s. 1620-1634 ISSN 0262-6667 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : taxation system * tax remission * hydrological extremes * meteorological extreme * fluctuation * hailstrom * torrential rain * flash flood * human impact Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.252, year: 2013

  9. Forcings and feedbacks on convection in the 2010 Pakistan flood: Modeling extreme precipitation with interactive large-scale ascent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Ji; Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Sobel, Adam H.

    2016-09-01

    Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, the roles of different physical processes in producing the extreme precipitation event can be difficult to disentangle. Here we examine the large-scale forcings and convective heating feedback in the precipitation events, which caused the 2010 Pakistan flood within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A cloud-revolving model (CRM) is forced with large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation using input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. Numerical results show that the positive feedback of convective heating to large-scale dynamics is essential in amplifying the precipitation intensity to the observed values. Orographic lifting is the most important dynamic forcing in both events, while differential potential vorticity advection also contributes to the triggering of the first event. Horizontal moisture advection modulates the extreme events mainly by setting the environmental humidity, which modulates the amplitude of the convection's response to the dynamic forcings. When the CRM is replaced by either a single-column model (SCM) with parameterized convection or a dry model with a reduced effective static stability, the model results show substantial discrepancies compared with reanalysis data. The reasons for these discrepancies are examined, and the implications for global models and theoretical models are discussed.

  10. Decrease in hydroclimatic conditions generating floods in the southeast of Belgium over the last 50 years resulting from changes in seasonal snow cover and extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyard, Coraline; Fettweis, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change, several studies concluded that winter flood occurrence could increase in the future in many rivers of northern and western Europe in response to an increase in extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine if trends in extreme hydroclimatic events generating floods can already be detected over the last century. In particular, we focus on the Ourthe River (southeast of Belgium) which is one of the main tributaries of the Meuse River with a catchment area of 3500 km². In this river, most of the floods occur during winter and about 50% of them are due to rainfall events associated with the melting of the snow which covers the Ardennes during winter. In this study, hydroclimatic conditions favorable to flooding were reconstructed over the 20th century using the regional climate model MAR ("Modèle Atmosphérique Régional") forced by the following reanalyses: the ERA-20C, the ERA-Interim and the NCEP/NCAR-v1. The use of the MAR model allows to compute precipitation, snow depth and run-off resulting from precipitation events and snow melting in any part of the Ourthe river catchment area. Therefore, extreme hydroclimatic events, namely extreme run-off events, which could potentially generate floods, can be reconstructed using the MAR model. As validation, the MAR results were compared to weather station-based data. A trend analysis was then performed in order to study the evolution of conditions favorable to flooding in the Ourthe River catchment. The results show that the MAR model allows the detection of more than 95% of the hydroclimatic conditions which effectively generated observed floods in the Ourthe River over the 1974-2014 period. Conditions favorable to flooding present a negative trend over the last 50 years as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation and in extreme precipitation events. However, significance of these trends depends on the reanalysis used to force the regional climate model as well as the

  11. Future flood risk in the tropics as measured by changes in extreme runoff intensity is strongly influenced by plant-physiological responses to rising CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooperman, G. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Koven, C.; Lindsay, K. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of intense flooding events, and thus the risk of flood-related mortality, infrastructure damage, and economic loss. Assessments of future flooding from global climate models based only on precipitation intensity and temperature neglect important processes that occur within the land-surface, particularly the impacts of plant-physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 reduces stomatal conductance, leading to less water loss through transpiration and higher soil moisture. For a given precipitation rate, higher soil moisture decreases the amount of rainwater that infiltrates the surface and increases runoff. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant-physiological and radiative-greenhouse effects on changes in extreme runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant-physiological effects contribute to only a small increase in precipitation intensity, but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one-half of the 99th percentile runoff intensity change and one-third of the 99.9th percentile change. Comprehensive assessments of future flooding risk need to account for the physiological as well as radiative impacts of CO2 in order to better inform flood prediction and mitigation practices.

  12. An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

    The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

  13. Towards an increase of flash flood geomorphic effects due to gravel mining and ground subsidence in Nogalte stream (Murcia, SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Ortega-Becerril

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Transition from endorheic alluvial fan environments to well-channelized fluvial systems in natural conditions may occur in response to base-level fluctuations. However, human-induced changes in semi-arid regions can also be responsible for similar unforeseen modifications. Our results confirm that in-channel gravel mining and aquifer overexploitation over the last 50 years in the case study area have changed the natural stability of the Nogalte stream and, as a result, its geomorphic parameters including channel depth and longitudinal profile have begun to adapt to the new situation. Using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR data we obtain maximum values for ground subsidence in the Upper Guadalentín Basin of  ∼ 10 cm yr−1 for the period 2003–2010. In this context of a lowered base level, the river is changing its natural flood model to a more powerful one. A comparison of the 1973 flood event, the most dramatic flood event ever recorded in the area, with the 2012 event, where there was a similar discharge but a sediment load deficit, reveals greater changes and a new flooding pattern and extension. In-channel gravel mining may be responsible for significant local changes in channel incision and profile. This, together with the collateral effects of aquifer overexploitation, can favour increased river velocity and stream power, which intensify the consequences of the flooding. The results obtained here clearly demonstrate an existing transition from the former alluvial pattern to a confined fluvial trend, which may become more pronounced in the future due to the time lag between the drop in aquifer level and ground subsidence, and introduce a new scenario to be taken into consideration in future natural hazard planning in this area.

  14. Coupling atmospheric, hydrological and hydraulic models to develop a catalogue of worst-case scenarios for extreme flooding in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Felder, Guido; Raible, Christoph C.; Martius, Olivia; Rössler, Ole

    2015-04-01

    Extreme flooding are a natural threat that leads to great economical cost, especially in densely populated areas such as Switzerland. However, the study of such extremes is difficult due to the fact they are, by definition, very rare, whereas the instrumental period is relatively short. This hampers the study of events with large return periods, which are precisely those more relevant from the impact point of view. Thus, new methodologies have to be developed that provide a deeper understanding of such disastrous situations and their driving mechanisms. This study employs a chain of models that allow the study of the frequency and severity of such situations and to analyse their driving physical mechanisms. First, a long climate simulation (a control simulation spanning more than 500 years) with the comprehensive Global Circulation Model (GCM) CESM1 is used as test-bed for producing a dataset of several centuries of physically consistent climate. This data is then used to filter out a number of case studies corresponding to extreme situations, which are selected as candidates for further analysis. However, although the physical consistency of this simulation ensures that the synoptic circulation leading to the selected events is plausible, the global model employs a coarse spatial resolution (1 degree) that precludes the accurate simulation of the precipitation in areas of complex topography such as Switzerland. Hence, once the dates of the candidate cases are selected within the GCM run, this dataset is downscaled with the Regional Climate Model (RCM) WRF. The RCM implements a spatial resolution of 2 km over the entire alpine area, which allows it to reproduce more accurately the precipitation induced by interactions between the large-scale forcing and the orography. The results show that WRF is able to improve the simulation of precipitation compared to the GCM alone. Although the large-scale flow and the location of the precipitation maxima is very similar in

  15. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

    2016-05-01

    The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation

  16. ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

    2017-01-01

    A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

  17. Flash evaporator

    OpenAIRE

    1997-01-01

    A device and method for flash evaporating a reagent includes an evaporation chamber that houses a dome on which evaporation occurs. The dome is solid and of high thermal conductivity and mass, and may be heated to a temperature sufficient to vaporize a specific reagent. The reagent is supplied from an external source to the dome through a nozzle, and may be supplied as a continuous stream, as a shower, and as discrete drops. A carrier gas may be introduced into the evaporation chamber and cre...

  18. Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

  19. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  20. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

    2016-04-01

    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  1. Torrential Flood Hazards Assessment, Management, And Mitigation, In Wadi Aday, Muscat Area, Sultanate Of Oman, A GIS and RS Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SalehI, A.S.; AI-Hatrushi, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    Flash flood hazard of Wadi Aday threaten human activities in an important urban area of Muscat City, the capital of Sultanate of Oman. To evaluate and mitigate these floods; Remote Sensing (IKONOS Images), Topographic and Cadastral maps, data of rainfall, floods and other data sources have been used under a GIS environment and manipulated. The study determined the areas under the flood risk, and clarified the risk class and degree for each of human activities object in the lower part of Wadi Aday. In order to mitigate the flood hazards, and to utilize the floods water in such extreme hot desert; the study suggested: establishing two dams and artificial channel added to some methods that reduce the erosion on canyon reach road

  2. Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevnina, Elena; Kourzeneva, Ekaterina; Kovalenko, Viktor; Vihma, Timo

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.

  3. Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

  4. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  5. High-resolution simulation and forecasting of Jeddah floods using WRF version 3.5

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping

    2013-12-01

    Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.

  6. High-resolution simulation and forecasting of Jeddah floods using WRF version 3.5

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason; Kucera, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.

  7. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, John A.

    2016-03-21

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  8. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantificatio...... during the past 30 years caused an increase in flood exposure that is comparable to what is expected in the RCP4.5 (+2°C) climate scenario.......In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantification...

  9. Characterization of remarkable floods in France, a transdisciplinary approach applied on generalized floods of January 1910

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

    2014-05-01

    emphasize one flood typology or one flood dynamic (for example flash floods are often over-represented than slow dynamic floods in existing databases). Thus, the selected criteria have to introduce a general overview of flooding risk in France by integrating all typologies: storm surges, torrential floods, rising groundwater level and resulting to flood, etc. The methodology developed for the evaluation grid is inspired by several scientific works related to historical hydrology (Bradzil, 2006; Benito et al., 2004) or extreme floods classification (Kundzewics et al. 2013; Garnier E., 2005). The referenced information are mainly issued from investigations realized for the PFRA (archives, local data),from internet databases on flooding disasters, and from a complementary bibliography (some scientists such as Maurice Pardé a geographer who largely documented French floods during the 20th century). The proposed classification relies on three main axes. Each axis is associated to a set of criteria, each one related to a score (from 0.5 to 4 points), and pointing out a final remarkability score. • The flood intensity characterizing the flood's hazard level. It is composed of the submersion duration, important to valorize floods with slow dynamics as flooding from groundwater, the event peak discharge's return period, and the presence of factors increasing significantly the hazard level (dykes breaks, log jam, sediment transport…) • The flood severity focuses on economic damages, social and political repercussions, media coverage of the event, fatalities number or eventual flood warning failures. Analyzing the flood consequences is essential in order to evaluate the vulnerability of society at disaster date. • The spatial extension of the flood, which contributes complementary information to the two first axes. The evaluation grid was tested and applied on the sample of 176 remarkable events. Around twenty events (from 1856 to 2010) come out with a high remarkability rate

  10. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

  11. Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rue, Garrett P. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Rock, Nathan D. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Gabor, Rachel S. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Pitlick, John [Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Tfaily, Malak [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; McKnight, Diane M. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA

    2017-07-01

    During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.

  12. The Historical Flood Of July 2008 From Vaser River Basin, Romania. Causes, Effects And Flood Control Actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sima Andrei

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Floods is an experience perceived by society as unexpected, unexplainable and traumatizing and nowadays a threat to humanity more than ever. Among the natural phenomena which negatively affect human activities, floods are the ones which usually have the most significant consequences. The research, evaluations and statistics related to these phenomena do not reveal the drama and serious consequences that come with floods. It was proven that the increase of these extreme hydrological phenomena it is closely related to the anthropic activities from the area. Vaser basin is the most significant sub-basin of Vișeu river basin, contributing with 28% from the total flow of Vișeu river. Having a strong touristic and economic potential, the basin is often threatened by flash floods which usually have devastating effects. During July 2008 there was recorded the most significant flood from the history of hydrometric activity that led to substantial damage and death among locals. The present paper aims to analyze this historical flood, identifying the causes, effects, as well as the methods to control this extreme hydric phenomenon.

  13. Flash X-ray

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Eiichi

    2003-01-01

    Generation of quasi-monochromatic X-ray by production of weakly ionized line plasma (flash X-ray), high-speed imaging by the X-ray and high-contrast imaging by the characteristic X-ray absorption are described. The equipment for the X-ray is consisted from the high-voltage power supply and condenser, turbo molecular pump, and plasma X-ray tube. The tube has a long linear anticathode to produce the line plasma and flash X-ray at 20 kA current at maximum. X-ray spectrum is measured by the imaging plate equipped in the computed radiography system after diffracted by a LiF single crystal bender. Cu anticathode generates sharp peaks of K X-ray series. The tissue images are presented for vertebra, rabbit ear and heart, and dog heart by X-ray fluoroscopy with Ce anticathode. Generation of K-orbit characteristic X-ray with extremely low bremsstrahung is to be attempted for medical use. (N.I.)

  14. Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-09-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  15. Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  16. The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

    2017-10-01

    A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative

  17. Assessing the continuity of the upland sediment cascade, fluvial geomorphic response of an upland river to an extreme flood event: Storm Desmond, Cumbria, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Hannah; Hardy, Richard; Warburton, Jeff

    2017-04-01

    Hillslope erosion and accelerated lake sedimentation are often viewed as the source and main storage elements in the upland sediment cascade. However, the continuity of sediment transfer through intervening valley systems has rarely been evaluated during extreme events. Storm Desmond (4th - 6th December, 2015) produced record-breaking rainfall maximums in the UK: 341.4 mm rainfall was recorded in a 24 hour period at Honister Pass, Western Lake District, and 405 mm of rainfall was recorded in a 38 hour period at Thirlmere, central Lake District. The storm was the largest in a 150 year local rainfall series, and exceeded previous new records set in the 2005 and 2009 floods. During this exceptional event, rivers over topped flood defences, and caused damage to over 257 bridges, flooded over 5000 homes and businesses, and caused substantial geomorphic change along upland rivers. This research quantifies the geomorphic and sedimentary response to Storm Desmond along a regulated gravel-bed river: St John's Beck. St John's Beck (length 7.8 km) is a channelised low gradient river (0.005) downstream of Thirlmere Reservoir, which joins the River Greta, and flows through Keswick, where major flooding has occurred, before discharging into Bassenthwaite Lake. St John's Beck has a history of chronic sediment aggradation, erosion and reports of historic flooding date back to 1750. During Storm Desmond, riverbanks were eroded, coarse sediment was deposited across valuable farmland and access routes were destroyed, including a bridge and footpaths, disrupting local business. A sediment budget framework has been used to quantify geomorphic change and sedimentary characteristics of the event along St John's Beck. The volume and sediment size distribution of flood deposits, channel bars, tributary deposits, floodplain scour, riverbank erosion and in-channel bars were measured directly in the field and converted to mass using local estimates of coarse and fine sediment bulk densities

  18. DIRCM FLASH Flight Tests

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Molocher, Bernhard; Kaltenecker, Anton; Thum-Jaeger, Andrea; Regensburger, Martin; Formery, Martin

    2005-01-01

    .... FLASH operation is as follows: After handover following an alarm from the missile warning system FLASH enters autonomous passive tracking mode for tracking a missiles and sending a laser beam onto the missile...

  19. Flash Platform Examination

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    than would be performed in software”[108]. Uro Tinic, one of the Flash player’s engineers, further clarifies exactly what Flash player 10 hardware...www.adobe.com/products/flashplayer/features/ (Access date: 28 Sep 2009). [109] Uro , T. What Does GPU Acceleration Mean? (online), http...133] Shorten, A. (2009), Design to Development: Flash Catalyst to Flash Builder, In Proceedings of Adobe Max 2009, Los Angeles, CA. 142 DRDC

  20. Controls on fluvial metamorphosis during global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (56 Ma) in Spain: extreme droughts, extreme floods or both?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelltort, Sebastien; Chen, Chen; Guerit, Laure; Foreman, Brady; Paola, Chris; Adatte, Thierry

    2017-04-01

    How does global warming change the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events? The response to this question is partly preserved in the geological record. 56 Ma ago, global temperatures increased during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), leading to a major biotic turnover, but how this event affected the nature of extreme events remains unknown. On several continents, fluvial systems with sinuous channels within fine-grained floodplains suddenly transformed at the P-E boundary into apparently coarser-grained braid plains with frequent lateral migrations, washing their muddy floodplains to the seas. This landscape transformation has been related to aridification and intensification of precipitation allowing transport of coarser material as a result of P-E global warming, with important implications for predicting the consequences of current global change. Here we test this hypothesis by quantifying the magnitude of grain size change and flow depth at a representative P-E locality in Northern Spain. We find that the size of pebbles in transport and flow depth remained similar to, or even smaller than, pre-PETM conditions. This suggests that, if more seasonal and extreme precipitation occurred, they are not necessarily borne out in the predicted deeper flow depths and coarser grain sizes, but rather trigger a shift to multiple active channels. However, an alternative or complementary explanation may rest in pollen data found in coeval marine records and which document a dramatic vegetation shift from permanent conifer forests prior to the crisis into periodic vegetation in brief periods of rain during the hyperthermal episode. Such change induced by long periods of intense droughts, could have enhanced erodibility of channel banks by decreasing root-controlled cohesion of fine-grained floodplains and interfluves, promoting their lateral mobility and the observed fluvial metamorphosis. Thus, although water is regarded as the main agent sculpting

  1. Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household-level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy-wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al-Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood-affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

  2. The Effect of Recurrent Floods on Genetic Composition of Marble Trout Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujolar, José Martin; Vincenzi, Simone; Zane, Lorenzo; Jesensek, Dusan; De Leo, Giulio A.; Crivelli, Alain J.

    2011-01-01

    A changing global climate can threaten the diversity of species and ecosystems. We explore the consequences of catastrophic disturbances in determining the evolutionary and demographic histories of secluded marble trout populations in Slovenian streams subjected to weather extremes, in particular recurrent flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities. Using microsatellite data, a pattern of extreme genetic differentiation was found among populations (global F ST of 0.716), which exceeds the highest values reported in freshwater fish. All locations showed low levels of genetic diversity as evidenced by low heterozygosities and a mean of only 2 alleles per locus, with few or no rare alleles. Many loci showed a discontinuous allele distribution, with missing alleles across the allele size range, suggestive of a population contraction. Accordingly, bottleneck episodes were inferred for all samples with a reduction in population size of 3–4 orders of magnitude. The reduced level of genetic diversity observed in all populations implies a strong impact of genetic drift, and suggests that along with limited gene flow, genetic differentiation might have been exacerbated by recurrent mortalities likely caused by flash flood and debris flows. Due to its low evolutionary potential the species might fail to cope with an intensification and altered frequency of flash flood events predicted to occur with climate change. PMID:21931617

  3. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  4. The development of flood map in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

    2017-11-01

    In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to

  5. The extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin: the role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Marengo, José Antonio; Ronchail, Josyane; Carpio, Jorge Molina; Flores, Luís Noriega; Guyot, Jean Loup

    2014-01-01

    Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in South-western Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal. Discharge in the Madeira River (the main southern Amazon tributary) has been 74% higher than normal (58 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Porto Velho and 380% (25 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Rurrenabaque, at the exit of the Andes in summer, while levels of the Rio Negro at Manaus were 29.47 m in June 2014, corresponding to the fifth highest record during the 113 years record of the Rio Negro. While previous floods in Amazonia have been related to La Niña and/or warmer than normal tropical South Atlantic, the 2014 rainfall and flood anomalies are associated with warm condition in the western Pacific-Indian Ocean and with an exceptionally warm Subtropical South Atlantic. Our results suggest that the tropical and subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient is a main driver for moisture transport from the Atlantic toward south-western Amazon, and this became exceptionally intense during summer of 2014. (letter)

  6. Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

  7. Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic

  8. Investigation of flood pattern using ANOVA statistic and remote sensing in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ya'acob, Norsuzila; Ismail, Nor Syazwani; Mustafa, Norfazira; Yusof, Azita Laily

    2014-01-01

    Flood is an overflow or inundation that comes from river or other body of water and causes or threatens damages. In Malaysia, there are no formal categorization of flood but often broadly categorized as monsoonal, flash or tidal floods. This project will be focus on flood causes by monsoon. For the last few years, the number of extreme flood was occurred and brings great economic impact. The extreme weather pattern is the main sector contributes for this phenomenon. In 2010, several districts in the states of Kedah neighbour-hoods state have been hit by floods and it is caused by tremendous weather pattern. During this tragedy, the ratio of the rainfalls volume was not fixed for every region, and the flood happened when the amount of water increase rapidly and start to overflow. This is the main objective why this project has been carried out, and the analysis data has been done from August until October in 2010. The investigation was done to find the possibility correlation pattern parameters related to the flood. ANOVA statistic was used to calculate the percentage of parameters was involved and Regression and correlation calculate the strength of coefficient among parameters related to the flood while remote sensing image was used for validation between the calculation accuracy. According to the results, the prediction is successful as the coefficient of relation in flood event is 0.912 and proved by Terra-SAR image on 4th November 2010. The rates of change in weather pattern give the impact to the flood

  9. NAND flash memory technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Aritome, Seiichi

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses basic and advanced NAND flash memory technologies, including the principle of NAND flash, memory cell technologies, multi-bits cell technologies, scaling challenges of memory cell, reliability, and 3-dimensional cell as the future technology. Chapter 1 describes the background and early history of NAND flash. The basic device structures and operations are described in Chapter 2. Next, the author discusses the memory cell technologies focused on scaling in Chapter 3, and introduces the advanced operations for multi-level cells in Chapter 4. The physical limitations for scaling are examined in Chapter 5, and Chapter 6 describes the reliability of NAND flash memory. Chapter 7 examines 3-dimensional (3D) NAND flash memory cells and discusses the pros and cons in structure, process, operations, scalability, and performance. In Chapter 8, challenges of 3D NAND flash memory are dis ussed. Finally, in Chapter 9, the author summarizes and describes the prospect of technologies and market for the fu...

  10. Pro Android Flash

    CERN Document Server

    Chin, Stephen; Campesato, Oswald

    2011-01-01

    Did you know you can take your Flash skills beyond the browser, allowing you to make apps for Android, iOS and the BlackBerry Tablet OS? Build dynamic apps today starting with the easy-to-use Android smartphones and tablets. Then, take your app to other platforms without writing native code. Pro Android Flash is the definitive guide to building Flash and other rich Internet applications (RIAs) on the Android platform. It covers the most popular RIA frameworks for Android developers - Flash and Flex - and shows how to build rich, immersive user experiences on both Android smartphones and tablet

  11. The water vapour flux above Switzerland and its role in the August 2005 extreme precipitation and flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    N' Dri Koffi, Ernest; Maetzler, Christian [Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. of Applied Physics; Graham, Edward [Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Inst. of Applied Physics; University of the Highlands and Islands, Stornoway, Scotland (United Kingdom). Lews Castle College

    2013-10-15

    The water budget approach is applied to an atmospheric box above Switzerland (hereafter referred to as the 'Swiss box') to quantify the atmospheric water vapour flux using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. The results confirm that the water vapour flux through the Swiss box is highly temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 5 x 10{sup 7} kg/s during settled anticyclonic weather, but increasing in size by a factor of ten or more during high speed currents of water vapour. Overall, Switzerland and the Swiss box 'import' more water vapour than it 'exports', but the amount gained remains only a small fraction (1% to 5%) of the total available water vapour passing by. High inward water vapour fluxes are not necessarily linked to high precipitation episodes. The water vapour flux during the August 2005 floods, which caused severe damage in central Switzerland, is examined and an assessment is made of the computed water vapour fluxes compared to high spatio-temporal rain gauge and radar observations. About 25% of the incoming water vapour flux was stored in Switzerland. The computed water vapour fluxes from ECMWF data compare well with the mean rain gauge observations and the combined rain-gauge radar precipitation products. (orig.)

  12. Spatial and temporal patterns of bank failure during extreme flood events: Evidence of nonlinearity and self-organised criticality at the basin scale?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, C. J.; Croke, J. C.; Grove, J. R.

    2012-04-01

    Non-linearity in physical systems provides a conceptual framework to explain complex patterns and form that are derived from complex internal dynamics rather than external forcings, and can be used to inform modeling and improve landscape management. One process that has been investigated previously to explore the existence of self-organised critical system (SOC) in river systems at the basin-scale is bank failure. Spatial trends in bank failure have been previously quantified to determine if the distribution of bank failures at the basin scale exhibit the necessary power law magnitude/frequency distributions. More commonly bank failures are investigated at a small-scale using several cross-sections with strong emphasis on local-scale factors such as bank height, cohesion and hydraulic properties. Advancing our understanding of non-linearity in such processes, however, requires many more studies where both the spatial and temporal measurements of the process can be used to investigate the existence or otherwise of non-linearity and self-organised criticality. This study presents measurements of bank failure throughout the Lockyer catchment in southeast Queensland, Australia, which experienced an extreme flood event in January 2011 resulting in the loss of human lives and geomorphic channel change. The most dominant form of fluvial adjustment consisted of changes in channel geometry and notably widespread bank failures, which were readily identifiable as 'scalloped' shaped failure scarps. The spatial extents of these were mapped using high-resolution LiDAR derived digital elevation model and were verified by field surveys and air photos. Pre-flood event LiDAR coverage for the catchment also existed allowing direct comparison of the magnitude and frequency of bank failures from both pre and post-flood time periods. Data were collected and analysed within a GIS framework and investigated for power-law relationships. Bank failures appeared random and occurred

  13. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-12-01

    The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

  14. Flash-Type Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshak, William J.

    2010-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation describes the significant progress made in the flash-type discrimination algorithm development. The contents include: 1) Highlights of Progress for GLM-R3 Flash-Type discrimination Algorithm Development; 2) Maximum Group Area (MGA) Data; 3) Retrieval Errors from Simulations; and 4) Preliminary Global-scale Retrieval.

  15. Reconstruction of peak water levels, peak discharges and long-term occurrence of extreme- as well as smaller pre-instrumental flood events of river Aare, Limmat, Reuss, Rhine and Saane in Switzerland. Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetter, Oliver; Tuttenuj, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Part I: Dr. Oliver Wetter. (Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) Part II: PhD student Daniel Tuttenuj (Oeschger Centre of Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) The methodology developed by Wetter et al. (2011) combines different documentary and instrumental sources, retaining relevant information for the reconstruction of extreme pre-instrumental flood events. These include hydrological measurements (gauges), historic river profiles (cross and longitudinal profiles), flood marks, historic city maps, documentary flood evidence (reports in chronicles and newspapers) as well as paintings and drawings. It has been shown that extreme river Rhine flood events of the pre-instrumental period can be reconstructed in terms of peak discharges for the last 750 years by applying this methodology to the site of Basel. Pfister & Wetter (2011) furthermore demonstrated that this methodology is also principally transferable to other locations and rivers. Institutional documentary evidence has not been systematically analysed in the context of historical hydrology in Switzerland so far. The term institutional documentary evidence generally outlines sources that were produced by governments or other (public) bodies including the church, hospitals, and the office of the bridge master. Institutional bodies were typically not directly interested in describing climate or hydrological events but they were obliged to document their activities, especially if they generated financial costs (bookkeeping), and in doing so they often indirectly recorded climatologic or hydrological events. The books of weekly expenditures of Basel ("Wochenausgabenbücher der Stadt Basel") were first analysed by Fouquet (1999). He found recurring records of wage expenditures for a squad of craftsmen that was called up onto the bridge with the task of preventing the bridge from being damaged by fishing out drifting logs from the flood waters. Fouquet

  16. Reconstruction of peak water levels, peak discharges and long-term occurrence of extreme- as well as smaller pre-instrumental flood events of river Aare, Limmat, Reuss, Rhine and Saane in Switzerland. Part II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttenuj, Daniel; Wetter, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    The methodology developed by Wetter et al. (2011) combines different documentary and instrumental sources, retaining relevant information for the reconstruction of extreme pre-instrumental flood events. These include hydrological measurements (gauges), historic river profiles (cross and longitudinal profiles), flood marks, historic city maps, documentary flood evidence (reports in chronicles and newspapers) as well as paintings and drawings. It has been shown that extreme river Rhine flood events of the pre-instrumental period can be reconstructed in terms of peak discharges for the last 750 years by applying this methodology to the site of Basel. Pfister & Wetter (2011) furthermore demonstrated that this methodology is also principally transferable to other locations and rivers in Switzerland. Institutional documentary evidence has not been systematically analysed in the context of historical hydrology in Switzerland so far. The term institutional documentary evidence generally outlines sources that were produced by governments or other (public) bodies including the church, hospitals, and the office of the bridge master. Institutional bodies were typically not directly interested in describing climate or hydrological events but they were obliged to document their activities, especially if they generated financial costs (bookkeeping), and in doing so they often indirectly recorded climatologic or hydrological events. The books of weekly expenditures of Basel ("Wochenausgabenbücher der Stadt Basel") were first analysed by Fouquet (1999). He found recurring records of wage expenditures for a squad of craftsmen that was called up onto the bridge with the task of preventing the bridge from being damaged by fishing out drifting logs from the flood waters. Fouquet systematically analysed the period from 1446-1542 and could prove a large number of pre-instrumental flood events of river Rhine, Birs, Birsig and Wiese in Basel. All in all the weekly led account books

  17. Applying Independent Component Analysis on Sentinel-2 Imagery to Characterize Geomorphological Responses to an Extreme Flood Event near the Non-Vegetated Río Colorado Terminus, Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaguang Li

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In some internally-draining dryland basins, ephemeral river systems terminate at the margins of playas. Extreme floods can exert significant geomorphological impacts on the lower reaches of these river systems and the playas, including causing changes to flood extent, channel-floodplain morphology, and sediment dispersal. However, the characterization of these impacts using remote sensing approaches has been challenging owing to variable vegetation and cloud cover, as well as the commonly limited spatial and temporal resolution of data. Here, we use Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI data to investigate the flood extent, flood patterns and channel-floodplain morphodynamics resulting from an extreme flood near the non-vegetated terminus of the Río Colorado, located at the margins of the world’s largest playa (Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Daily maximum precipitation frequency analysis based on a 42-year record of daily precipitation data (1976 through 2017 indicates that an approximately 40-year precipitation event (40.7 mm occurred on 6 January 2017, and this was associated with an extreme flood. Sentinel-2 data acquired after this extreme flood were used to separate water bodies and land, first by using modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI, and then by subsequently applying independent component analysis (ICA on the land section of the combined pre- and post-flood images to extract flooding areas. The area around the Río Colorado terminus system was classified into three categories: water bodies, wet land, and dry land. The results are in agreement with visual assessment, with an overall accuracy of 96% and Kappa of 0.9 for water-land classification and an overall accuracy of 83% and Kappa of 0.65 for dry land-wet land classification. The flood extent mapping revealed preferential overbank flow paths on the floodplain, which were closely related to geomorphological changes. Changes included the formation and enlargement of

  18. Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

    2017-04-01

    Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

  19. Pilot project for a hybrid road-flooding forecasting system on Squaw Creek : [tech transfer summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    According to the National Weather Service, more than : half of the fatalities attributed to flash floods are : people swept away in vehicles when trying to cross an : intersection that is flooded. Efforts are underway to : improve prediction of the l...

  20. Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

    2017-04-01

    Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

  1. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  2. Professional Flash Lite Mobile Development

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, J G

    2010-01-01

    Discover how to create Flash Lite mobile apps from the ground up. Adobe Flash is an ideal choice for developing rich interactive content for "Flash-enabled" mobile devices; and with this book, you'll learn how to create unique applications with Flash Lite. Through a series of code samples and extensive example applications, you'll explore the core concepts, key features, and best practices of the Flash Lite player. Coverage reveals various ways to develop Flash mobile content, create applications with a cross-platform programming framework based on the Model, View and Controller conc

  3. A Comparative Study of Reduced-Variables-Based Flash and Conventional Flash

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Stenby, Erling Halfdan; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2013-01-01

    ) with zero binary-interaction parameters (BIPs) and later generalized to situations with nonzero-BIP matrices. Most of the studies in the last decade suggest that the reduced-variables methods are much more efficient than the conventional flash method. However, Haugen and Beckner (2011) questioned...... with the conventional minimization-based flash. A test with the use of the SPE 3 example (Kenyon and Behie 1987) showed that the best reduction in time was less than 20% for the extreme situation of 25 components and just one row/column with nonzero BIPs. A better performance can be achieved by a simpler implementation...... directly using the sparsity of the BIP matrix....

  4. Phototoxic effects of commercial photographic flash lamp on rat eyes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Makoto; Shinoda, Kei; Ohde, Hisao; Tezuka, Keiji; Hida, Tetsuo

    2006-11-01

    To determine whether exposure of the cornea and retina of rats to flashes from a commercial photographic flash lamp is phototoxic. Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to 10, 100, or 1,000 flashes of the OPTICAM 16M photographic flash lamp (Fujikoeki, Japan) placed 0.1, 1, or 3 m from the eyes. Corneal damage was assessed by a fluorescein staining score, and the retinal damage by eletroretinography (ERG) and histology before and 24 h after exposure. Exposure of the eyes to 1,000 flashes at 0.1 m increased the fluorescein staining score significantly (P = 0.009, the Mann-Whitney test). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of the cornea showed a detachment of the epithelial cells from the surface after this exposure. The amplitude of the a-wave was decreased significantly by 23.0% (P = 0.026) of the amplitude before the exposure, and the b-wave by 19.7% (P = 0.0478) following 1,000 flashes at 0.1 m but not by the other exposures. TUNEL-positive cells were present in the outer nuclear layer only after the extreme exposure, but no significant decrease in retinal thickness was seen under any condition. The fluorescein staining score and ERGs recovered to control levels within 1 week. Light exposure to a photographic flash lamp does not induce damage to the cornea and retina except when they are exposed to 1,000 flashes at 0.1 m.

  5. Timing in a FLASH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoek, M.; Cardinali, M.; Corell, O.; Dickescheid, M.; Ferretti B., M. I.; Lauth, W.; Schlimme, B. S.; Sfienti, C.; Thiel, M.

    2017-12-01

    A prototype detector, called FLASH (Fast Light Acquiring Start Hodoscope), was built to provide precise Time-of-Flight (TOF) measurements and reference timestamps for detector setups at external beam lines. Radiator bars, made of synthetic fused silica, were coupled to a fast MCP-PMT with 64 channels and read out with custom electronics using Time-over-Threshold (TOT) for signal characterization. The TRB3 system, a high-precision TDC implemented in an FPGA, was used as data acquisition system. The performance of a system consisting of two FLASH units was investigated at a dedicated test experiment at the Mainz Microtron (MAMI) accelerator using its 855 MeV electron beam. The TOT measurement enabled time walk corrections and an overall TOF resolution of ∼70 ps could be achieved which translates into a resolution of ∼50 ps per FLASH unit. The intrinsic resolution of the frontend electronics including the TDC was measured to be less than 25 ps.

  6. Assessing public flood risk perception for understanding the level of risk preparedness - Evidence from a community-based survey (the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balteanu, Dan; Micu, Dana; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Dragota, Carmen; Kucsicsa, Gheorghita; Grigorescu, Ines; Persu, Mihaela; Costache, Andra

    2016-04-01

    Floods (slow-onset and rapid) are among the costliest hydro-meteorological hazards in Romania, with strong societal and economic impacts, especially in small rural settlements, with a limited adaptive capacity to their adverse effects induced by the regional socio-economic context (e.g. aging population, low economic power). The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians (Romania), a region with high tectonic mobility (the Seismic Vrancea Region), active slope processes (e.g. shallow and deep-seated landslides, mud flow, gully erosion) and increasing frequency of flash floods associated to heavy rainfalls. The study was conducted in the framework of the project "Vulnerability of the environment and human settlements to floods in the context of Global Environmental Change - VULMIN" (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education over the 2012-2016 period (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). Prior research derived valuable insights into the local population vulnerability to extreme hydro-meteorological events, revealing an increased individual experience to past hydrological events, a high level of worry associated to flood recurrence, a low rate of the perceived trustworthiness in national institutions and authorities, as well as evident differences between the perception of community members and local authorities in terms of risk preparedness. In the present study, an attempt has been made for developing an advanced understanding of the current level of flood risk preparedness within some communities strongly affected by the floods of 1970-1975, 2005 and 2010. The recent events had a significant impact on local communities and infrastructure in terms of the financial losses, causing a visible stress and even psychological trauma on some residents of the most affected households. The selected communities are located in areas affected by recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards (floods and flash floods), with return periods below 10 years. A

  7. Foundation Flash Cartoon Animation

    CERN Document Server

    Jones, Tim; Rosson, Allan S

    2008-01-01

    One of Flash s most common uses is still animation for cartoons, games, advertising etc, and this book takes a fresh look at the topic, breaking it down pre-production, production, and post production, and looking at each section in detail, and covering topics such as storyboarding, character libraries and camera mechanics like no Flash book has before. The book is written by members of the Emmy award winning ANIMAX team, who have created work for clients such as Disney, AOL, Fox, WWE, ESPN, and Sesame workshop. This book is an opportunity for them to share their secrets, and is written to sui

  8. Theory of optical flashes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    London, R.A.

    1983-01-01

    The theory of optical flashes created by x- and γ-ray burst heating of stars in binaries is reviewed. Calculations of spectra due to steady-state x-ray reprocessing and estimates of the fundamental time scales for the non-steady case are discussed. The results are applied to the extant optical data from x-ray and γ-ray bursters. Finally, I review predictions of flashes from γ-ray bursters detectable by a state of the art all-sky optical monitor

  9. Optimal multi-agent path planning for fast inverse modeling in UAV-based flood sensing applications

    KAUST Repository

    Abdelkader, Mohamed; Shaqura, Mohammad; Ghommem, Mehdi; Collier, Nathan; Calo, Victor M.; Claudel, Christian G.

    2014-01-01

    Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, flash flood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Unmanned air vehicles equipped

  10. Learning Flash CS4 Professional

    CERN Document Server

    Shupe, Rich

    2009-01-01

    Learning Flash CS4 Professional offers beginners and intermediate Flash developers a unique introduction to the latest version of Adobe's powerful multimedia application. This easy-to-read book is loaded with full-color examples and hands-on tasks to help you master Flash CS4's new motion editor, integrated 3D system, and character control using the new inverse kinematics bones animation system. No previous Flash experience is necessary.

  11. Jaan Toomik Flash Artis

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    1999-01-01

    1999. a. mai-juuni 'Flash Artis' on ajakirja Eesti korrespondendi Ando Keskküla artikkel Jaan Toomikust. Jaan Toomik on kutsutud esinema Londoni The Photographers' Gallery grupinäitusele, tema videot 'Father and Son' näidatakse Londonis avataval näitusel 'Near and Elsewhere' 11.-24. juunini

  12. Inessa Josing Flash Artis

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    1999-01-01

    'Flash Art'i' 1998. a. nov.-dets. numbris Rosa Martínezi artiklis suvisest Manifesta II näitusest Luxembourg'is on positiivselt mainitud ka Inessa Josingut. Illustratsiooniks toodud seitsmest fotost ühel on I. Josingu aknakujundus 'What Must I Do to be Saved?'

  13. Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2014-05-01

    Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by

  14. Flood action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slopek, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Safe operating procedures developed by TransAlta Utilities for dealing with flooding, resulting from upstream dam failures or extreme rainfalls, were presented. Several operating curves developed by Monenco AGRA were described, among them the No Overtopping Curve (NOC), the Safe Filling Curve (SFC), the No Spill Curve (NSC) and the Guaranteed Fill Curve (GFC). The concept of an operational comfort zone was developed and defined. A flood action plan for all operating staff was created as a guide in case of a flooding incident. Staging of a flood action plan workshop was described. Dam break scenarios pertinent to the Bow River were developed for subsequent incorporation into a Flood Action Plan Manual. Evaluation of the technical presentations made during workshops were found them to have been effective in providing operating staff with a better understanding of the procedures that they would perform in an emergency. 8 figs

  15. Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui Hoon Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

  16. Physics Flash August 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kippen, Karen Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-25

    Physics Flash is the newsletter for the Physics Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This newsletter is for August 2016. The following topics are covered: "Accomplishments in the Trident Laser Facility", "David Meyerhofer elected as chair-elect APS Nominating Committee", "HAWC searches for gamma rays from dark matter", "Proton Radiography Facility commissions electromagnetic magnifier", and "Cosmic ray muon computed tomography of spent nuclear fuel in dry storage casks."

  17. The lightning flash

    CERN Document Server

    Cooray, Vernon

    2014-01-01

    With contributions from today's leading lightning engineers and researchers, this updated 2nd edition of Vernon Cooray's classic text, The Lightning Flash provides the reader with an essential introduction to lightning and its impact on electrical and electronic equipment. Providing the reader with a thorough background into almost every aspect of lightning and its impact on electrical and electronic equipment, this new edition is updated throughout and features eight new chapters that bring the science up to date.

  18. Deconstructing continuous flash suppression

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Eunice; Blake, Randolph

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we asked to what extent the depth of interocular suppression engendered by continuous flash suppression (CFS) varies depending on spatiotemporal properties of the suppressed stimulus and CFS suppressor. An answer to this question could have implications for interpreting the results in which CFS influences the processing of different categories of stimuli to different extents. In a series of experiments, we measured the selectivity and depth of suppression (i.e., elevation in co...

  19. Coherent imaging at FLASH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, H N; Bajt, S; Duesterer, S; Treusch, R; Barty, A; Benner, W H; Bogan, M J; Frank, M; Hau-Riege, S P; Woods, B W; Boutet, S; Cavalleri, A; Hajdu, J; Iwan, B; Seibert, M M; Timneanu, N; Marchesini, S; Sakdinawat, A; Sokolowski-Tinten, K

    2009-01-01

    We have carried out high-resolution single-pulse coherent diffractive imaging at the FLASH free-electron laser. The intense focused FEL pulse gives a high-resolution low-noise coherent diffraction pattern of an object before that object turns into a plasma and explodes. In particular we are developing imaging of biological specimens beyond conventional radiation damage resolution limits, developing imaging of ultrafast processes, and testing methods to characterize and perform single-particle imaging.

  20. Physics Flash December 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kippen, Karen Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). ADEPS Communications

    2016-12-01

    This is the December 2016 issue of Physics Flash, the newsletter of the Physics Division of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In this issue, the following topics are covered: Novel liquid helium technique to aid highly sensitive search for a neutron electrical dipole moment; Silverleaf: Prototype Red Sage experiments performed at Q-site; John L. Kline named 2016 APS Fellow; Physics students in the news; First Entropy Engine quantum random number generator hits the market; and celebrating service.