WorldWideScience

Sample records for extreme body change

  1. [Changes in body composition during an extreme endurance run].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knechtle, B; Bircher, S

    2005-03-09

    We measured before, during and after a six-day-run in one athlete body weight, skinfold thickness, circumference of extremities, energy expenditure and nutritional intake. Despite an increased fat and protein intake during the race we found a significantly decrease in adipose subcutaneous tissue of the whole body and muscle mass in the active limbs whereas body weight remained stable. We presume that during running as eccentric exercise subcutaneous adipose tissue and muscle mass will be oxidised.

  2. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  3. [Change in the activity of the key gluconeogenesis enzymes in the rat liver and kidneys during the action of subextreme and extreme factors on the body].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panin, L E; Kolosova, I E; Nechaev, Iu S

    1979-06-01

    The activity of glucogenesis key enzymes (phosphoenolpyruvate carboxinase, fructoso-1,6-siphosphatase, glucoso-6-phosphatase) of the rat liver and kidneys was studied simultaneously under the effect of extreme and subextreme factors on the organism. The low initial phosphoenolpyruvate carboxikinase activity in the liver and its high inductivity under extreme conditions suggest a role of this enzyme as limiting link in glyconeogenesis. The activity of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxinase in the kidneys is comparable to that of fructoso-1,6-diphosphatase; it is considerably higher than the activity of glucoso-6-phosphatase. The phosphoenolpyruvate carboxinase activity in the kidneys is 5--6 times higher than in the liver. The activity of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxinase and glucoso-6-phosphatase is increased under the effect of extreme factors, and that of fructoso-1,6-diphosphatase remains unchanged. The lack of clear synchronous changes in the activity of glucogenesis key enzymes in the liver and kidneys indicates that the cells of these organs do not provide the united operon for phosphoenolpyruvate carboxinase, fructoso-1,6-diphosphatase and glucoso-6-phosphatase with common regulation mechanism.

  4. Assessment of biological changes of continuous whole body exposure to static magnetic field and extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashish, A H; El-Missiry, M A; Abdelkader, H I; Abou-Saleh, R H

    2008-11-01

    The question whether static magnetic fields (SMFs) and extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields (ELF-EMF) cause biological effects is of special interest. We investigated the effects of continuous whole body exposure to both fields for 30 days on some liver and blood parameters in mice. Two exposure systems were designed; the first produced a gradient SMF while the second generated uniform 50 Hz ELF-EMF. The results showed a gradual body weight loss when mice were exposed to either field. This is coupled with a significant decrease (Pglutathione-S-transferase activity and lipid peroxidation level in the liver were significantly increased while a significant decrease in hepatic gluthathione content was recorded. A significant decrease in the counts of monocytes, platelets, peripheral lymphocytes as well as splenic total, T and B lymphocytes levels was observed for SMF and ELF-EMF exposed groups. The granulocytes percentage was significantly increased. The results indicate that there is a relation between the exposure to SMF or ELF-EMF and the oxidative stress through distressing redox balance leading to physiological disturbances.

  5. Extreme properties of quermassintegrals of convex bodies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LENG; Gangsong

    2001-01-01

    [1]Ball,K.,Shadows of convex bodies,Trans.Amer.Math.Soc.,1991,327:891-901.[2]Lutwak,E.,Mixed projection inequalities,Trans.Amer.Math.Soc.,1985,287:92-106.[3]Bourgain,J.,Lindenstrauss,J.,Projection bodies,Israel Seminar (G.A.F.A) 1986-1987,Lecture Notes in Math.Vol.1317,Berlin-New York:Springer-Verlag,1988,250-269.[4]Chakerian,G.D.,Lutwak,E.,Bodies with similar projections,Trans.Amer.Math.Soc.,1997,349:1811-1820.[5]Schneider,R.,Weil,W.,Zonoids and related topics,Convexity and its Applications (eds.Gruber,P.M.,Wills,J.M.),Basel:Birkhuser,1983,296-316.[6]Schneider,R.,Convex Bodies:the Brunn-Minkowski Theory,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1993.[7]Schneider,R.,On the determination of convex bodies by projection and girth functions,Result Math.,1998,33:155-160.[8]Thompson,A.C.,Minkowski Geometry,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.[9]Petty,C.M.,Projection bodies,in Proceedings,Coll Convexity,Copenhagen,1965,Kbenhavns Univ.Mat.Inst.,1967,234-241.[10]Schneider,R.,Zu einem problem von Shephard über die projectionen konvexer kirper,Math.Z.,1967,101:71-81.[11]Ball,K.,Volume ratios and a reverse isoprimetric inequalitity,J.London Math.Soc.,1991,44(2):351-359.[12]Gardner,R.J.,Intersection bodies and the Busemann-Petty problem,Trans.Amer.Math.Soc.,1994,342:435-445.[13]Gardner,R.J.,A positive answer to the Busemann-petty problem in three dimensions,Annals of Math.,1994,140:435-447.[14]Grinberg,E.L.,Isoperimetric inequalities and identities fork-dimensional cross-sections of convex bodies,Math.Ann.,1991,291:75-86.[15]Goodey,P.,Schneider,R.,Weil,W.,On the determination of convex bodies by projection functions,Bull.London Math.Soc.,1997,29:82-88.[16]Lutwak,E.,Intersection bodies and dual mixed volumes,Adv.Math.,1988,71:232-261.[17]Zhang,G.,Centered bodies and dual mixed volumes,Trans.Amer.Soc.,1994,345:777-801.[18]Zhang,G.,Dual Kinematic formulas,Trans.Amer.Soc.,1999,351:985-995.[19

  6. Numerical simulation of floating bodies in extreme free surface waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Z. Hu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we use the in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD flow code AMAZON-SC as a numerical wave tank (NWT to study wave loading on a wave energy converter (WEC device in heave motion. This is a surface-capturing method for two fluid flows that treats the free surface as contact surface in the density field that is captured automatically without special provision. A time-accurate artificial compressibility method and high resolution Godunov-type scheme are employed in both fluid regions (air/water. The Cartesian cut cell method can provide a boundary-fitted mesh for a complex geometry with no requirement to re-mesh globally or even locally for moving geometry, requiring only changes to cut cell data at the body contour. Extreme wave boundary conditions are prescribed in an empty NWT and compared with physical experiments prior to calculations of extreme waves acting on a floating Bobber-type device. The validation work also includes the wave force on a fixed cylinder compared with theoretical and experimental data under regular waves. Results include free surface elevations, vertical displacement of the float, induced vertical velocity and heave force for a typical Bobber geometry with a hemispherical base under extreme wave conditions.

  7. Numerical simulation of floating bodies in extreme free surface waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Z. Z.; Causon, D. M.; Mingham, C. G.; Qian, L.

    2011-02-01

    In this paper, we use the in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow code AMAZON-SC as a numerical wave tank (NWT) to study wave loading on a wave energy converter (WEC) device in heave motion. This is a surface-capturing method for two fluid flows that treats the free surface as contact surface in the density field that is captured automatically without special provision. A time-accurate artificial compressibility method and high resolution Godunov-type scheme are employed in both fluid regions (air/water). The Cartesian cut cell method can provide a boundary-fitted mesh for a complex geometry with no requirement to re-mesh globally or even locally for moving geometry, requiring only changes to cut cell data at the body contour. Extreme wave boundary conditions are prescribed in an empty NWT and compared with physical experiments prior to calculations of extreme waves acting on a floating Bobber-type device. The validation work also includes the wave force on a fixed cylinder compared with theoretical and experimental data under regular waves. Results include free surface elevations, vertical displacement of the float, induced vertical velocity and heave force for a typical Bobber geometry with a hemispherical base under extreme wave conditions.

  8. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  9. Body compartment changes in sick children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pencharz, P B; Vaisman, N; Azcue, M; Stallings, V A

    1990-01-01

    Our studies showed that there are important changes in body composition in children in response to dieting and refeeding. Similarly, we showed changes in body composition in response to renal transplantation, which would be expected to restore more normal homeostasis, but in its early phases changes in body composition are complicated by the use of high doses of drugs, notably steroid. Some of the changes in body composition can be predicted from changes in weight but the majority cannot. Relatively simple measurements like the four skinfolds as a means of determining body fat are surprisingly accurate, except in extremely obese subjects. Similarly, the measurements of fat free body mass are useful. However, this measurement does not discriminate changes within fat free body mass in the proportions of body cell mass versus extracellular mass. Similarly, none of these measurements provide any information regarding the composition of body cell mass with regard to its potassium and protein content (as reflected by total body nitrogen). The main drawback with total body nitrogen measurements is the radiation exposure. Thus, we have had to limit the inclusion of total body nitrogen measurements. It has been estimated that two total body nitrogen measurements provide a gonadal dose of radiation roughly equivalent to that experienced by an individual living in a large North American city, that means 30 to 50 mREM per each total body nitrogen measurement. It becomes ethically possible then to carry out nitrogen measurements where it can be argued that their measurement is essential in monitoring the safety and well being of the subject; or alternatively if the subject's life expectancy is limited.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  10. Detecting change-points in extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Dupuis, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change-points in the tail of multiple time series data. In addition, we adapt existing tail change-point detection methods to our specific problem and conduct a thorough comparison of different methods in terms of performance on the estimation of change-points and computational time. We also examine three locations on the U.S. northeast coast and demonstrate that the methods are useful for identifying changes in seasonally extreme warm temperatures.

  11. The Pace of Perceivable Extreme Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    When will the signal of obvious changes in extreme climate emerge over climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key question for planning and implementing measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change to natural and human systems that are generally adapted to potential changes from current variability. We estimated ToEs for the magnitude, duration and frequency of global extreme climate represented by 24 extreme climate indices (16 for temperature and 8 for precipitation) with different thresholds of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio based on projections of CMIP5 global climate models under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for the 21st century. The uncertainty of ToE is assessed by using 3 different methods to calculate S/N for each extreme index. Results show that ToEs of the projected extreme climate indices based on the RCP4.5 climate scenarios are generally projected to happen about 20 years later than that for the RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Under RCP8.5, the projected magnitude, duration and frequency of extreme temperature on Earth will all exceed 2 standard deviations by 2100, and the empirical 50th percentile of the global ToE for the frequency and magnitude of hot (cold) extreme are about 2040 and 2054 (2064 and 2054) for S/N > 2, respectively. The 50th percentile of global ToE for the intensity of extreme precipitation is about 2030 and 2058 for S/N >0.5 and S/N >1, respectively. We further evaluated the exposure of ecosystems and human societies to the pace of extreme climate change by determining the year of ToE for various extreme climate indices projected to occur over terrestrial biomes, marine realms and major urban areas with large populations. This was done by overlaying terrestrial, ecoregions and population maps with maps of ToE derived, to extract ToEs for these regions. Possible relationships between GDP per person and ToE are also investigated by relating the mean ToE for each country and its average value of GDP per person.

  12. Aging changes in body shape

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003998.htm Aging changes in body shape To use the sharing ... and both sexes. Height loss is related to aging changes in the bones, muscles, and joints. People ...

  13. Body Changes and Discomforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... rich foods. Ask your doctor about calcium supplements. Morning sickness In the first trimester hormone changes can cause nausea and vomiting. This is called "morning sickness," although it can occur at any time of ...

  14. Body image and extreme attitudes toward weight in Brazilian schoolchildren (PeNSE 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Moreira Claro

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Adolescence is a period characterized by changes such as accelerated physical growth and sexual development. Besides having to deal with these changes, adolescents are faced with beauty standards and extreme valorization of physical appearance. OBJECTIVE: This article aims to describe body image and the practice of extreme attitudes regarding weight in Brazilian students. METHODS: Data from the National Survey of School Health (PeNSE 2012 were used in this study. PeNSE 2012 has a representative sample of students in the 9th grade of elementary school in public and private schools across the country. A self-administered questionnaire on body image, practice of extreme measures in relation to weight and sociodemographic data was used. Body image and the practice of extreme attitudes were described for the total sample and according to gender. Poisson regression analyzes were used to identify differences in the practices of extreme attitudes between the different types of body image. RESULTS: More than 38% of the adolescents did not consider their body image as normal. Over 15% of the students referred to carry out extreme weight control practices, combining practices to loose and gain weight. Adolescents who considered themselves fat presented frequency of extreme practices for weight loss 92% higher than that shown by individuals who considered themselves normal. Similarly, adolescents who considered themselves thin presented frequency of extreme attitudes to gain weight (9.7% higher than that shown by students who considered themselves normal (5.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of extreme weight control practices among Brazilian adolescents is alarming and should be subject of measures in health and education fields.

  15. Recent changes in precipitation extremes in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Eliza CROITORU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Changes in daily extreme precipitations have been identified in many studies conducted at local, regional or global scales. In Romania, only little research on this issue has been done so far. The present study is focused on the analysis of the trends in daily extreme precipitations indices over a period of 53 years (1961-2013. Data sets of daily precipitation recorded in 34 weather stations were analyzed. Among them, three are located in the Carpathian Mountains area and four are located on the Black Sea Coast. The main goal was to find changes in extreme daily precipitation using a set of 13 indices adopted from the core indices developed by ETCCDMI with appropriate modifications to suit to the studied area. The series of the indices as well as their trends were generated using RClimDex software. The trends have been calculated using the linear mean square method. The findings are similar to those obtained at the global and European continental scales and the most noteworthy are: increasing trends dominate for the most of the indices, but only about 25% of them are statistically significant at α=0.05; decreasing trends are more specific to southern area of the country; decreasing trends of  R0.1, CDD and CWD dominate for the great majority of locations; the spatial distribution of the significant slopes in the area is extremely irregular.

  16. Postpartum changes in body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Geum Joon; Yoon, Hyo Jin; Kim, Eung-Ju; Oh, Min-Jeong; Seo, Hong-Seog; Kim, Hai-Joong

    2011-12-01

    Parity is associated with weight retention and has long-lasting and detrimental effects on the health of women. Previous studies have shown that increasing parity was independently associated with an increased prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Postpartum weight is made up of several components including uterine and mammary tissues, body water (intracellular (ICW) and extracellular water (ECW)), and fat. These components change in variable amounts postpartum, thereby distinctly affecting the interpretation of individual weight retention; however, it is unclear which components contribute to weight retention. The aims of this longitudinal study were to evaluate changes in body composition during the postpartum period and to investigate their effects on weight retention. This prospective study examined 41 healthy, pregnant women who gave birth at Korea University Guro Hospital. We measured body composition at 2 days, 2 weeks, and 6 weeks postpartum using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Weight decreased during this postpartum period (P < 0.001); the postpartum weight retention from prepregnancy to 6 weeks postpartum was 4.43 ± 4.0 kg. Among various body composition components, ECW, ICW, total body water, and fat-free mass (FFM) decreased postpartum. However, fat mass (FM) and visceral fat area, the components that experienced the greatest changes, increased postpartum. Our results demonstrate that the postpartum period is associated with a preferential accumulation of adipose tissue in the visceral compartment, even though overall body weight is decreased. Further studies are needed to evaluate the changes in body composition over longer time periods and their long-term effects on health.

  17. Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

    2016-04-01

    The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

  18. Evolution of extreme body size disparity in monitor lizards (Varanus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collar, David C; Schulte, James A; Losos, Jonathan B

    2011-09-01

    Many features of species' biology, including life history, physiology, morphology, and ecology are tightly linked to body size. Investigation into the causes of size divergence is therefore critical to understanding the factors shaping phenotypic diversity within clades. In this study, we examined size evolution in monitor lizards (Varanus), a clade that includes the largest extant lizard species, the Komodo dragon (V. komodoensis), as well as diminutive species that are nearly four orders of magnitude smaller in adult body mass. We demonstrate that the remarkable body size disparity of this clade is a consequence of different selective demands imposed by three major habitat use patterns-arboreality, terrestriality, and rock-dwelling. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships and ancestral habitat use and applied model selection to determine that the best-fitting evolutionary models for species' adult size are those that infer oppositely directed adaptive evolution associated with terrestriality and rock-dwelling, with terrestrial lineages evolving extremely large size and rock-dwellers becoming very small. We also show that habitat use affects the evolution of several ecologically important morphological traits independently of body size divergence. These results suggest that habitat use exerts a strong, multidimensional influence on the evolution of morphological size and shape disparity in monitor lizards.

  19. Recent Changes of Some Observed Climate Extreme Events in Kano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imole Ezekiel Gbode

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Observed rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2007 were used to examine recent changes of extreme climate over Kano, located in the Sahelian region of Nigeria. The RClimDex software package was employed to generate nine important climate indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI. For the entire period, the results show a warming trend, an increased number of cool nights, more warm days, and a strong increase in the number of warm spells. The rainfall indices show a slight increase in annual total rainfall, a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive wet days, and a significant increase in the number of extremely wet days. Such changes in climate may result in an increasing demand for domestic energy for cooling and a higher evaporation rate from water bodies and irrigated crop. These findings may give some guidance to politicians and planners in how to best cope with these extreme weather and climate events.

  20. A Prospective Study of Extreme Weight Change Behaviors among Adolescent Boys and Girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Marita P.; Ricciardelli, Lina A.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined changes in extreme weight change attitudes and behaviors (exercise dependence, food supplements, drive for thinness, bulimia) among adolescent boys and girls over a 16 month period. It also investigated the impact of body mass index, puberty, body image, depression and positive affect on these attitudes and behaviors 16 months…

  1. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    monsoon and b) tropical cyclones. Basically the climate of India is domi- nated by the south west monsoon season which accounts for about 75% of the annual rainfall. The extreme weather events occur over India are: Floods, Droughts, Tropical Cyclones..., Heat Waves and Cold Waves, Storms Surges, Hail Storms, Thunderstorms, Dust Storms. Floods, droughts and tropical cyclones have specific significance a far as India is concerned. Floods and droughts are the two sides of the weather phenomena...

  2. Resistance to change of adulthood body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, M; Faith, M S; Pietrobelli, A

    2002-10-01

    Numerous weight loss trials show that maintenance of weight loss is extremely difficult to sustain over time in adulthood. Using general population sample of adults whose weights were longitudinally tracked across several decades, we quantified resistance of weight to change by means of body mass index autocorrelation across a series of paired time points. Equations for age-adjusted sex-specific body mass index autocorrelation were developed. We found that body weight is quite resistant to change over years and decades. This finding partially de-mystifies the weight regain observed following intervention that last weeks or months.

  3. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... by extreme precipitation pose a threat to human life and cause high economic losses for society. Thus, strategies to adapt to changes in extreme precipitation are currently being developed and established worldwide. Information on the expected changes in extreme precipitation is required for the development...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...

  4. Changes in lower extremity prosthetic practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trower, Ted A

    2006-02-01

    In recent years, much attention has been given to the revolution in new materials for prosthetics and the components that they have made possible. The average weight of a delivered prosthesis has decreased, currently available components offer improved function and superior symmetry of gait, and limb interfaces provide superior skin protection and comfort. The focus on the features of these components sometimes has led to neglect of the basic elements of prosthetic design--the fit and the alignment. If the fit and alignment are on the mark, an amputee can function at remarkably high levels with rudimentary components. This article discusses the basics of lower extremity prosthetic practice and addresses challenges for the future.

  5. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  6. Compound extremes in a changing climate - a Markov chain approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Mieruch, Sebastian; Schädler, Gerd; Kottmeier, Christoph

    2016-11-01

    Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951-2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971-2000, 2021-2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

  7. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Hoang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the most recent CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high flow and low flow conditions. Similar to earlier CMIP3-based assessments, the hydrological cycle also intensifies in the CMIP5 climate change scenarios. The scenarios ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location. Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. We further found that extremely high flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risk in the basin. The implications of climate change induced hydrological changes are critical and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.

  8. Transcriptome and network changes in climbers at extreme altitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Fang; Zhang, Wei; Liang, Yu;

    2012-01-01

    Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are lar...

  9. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phi Hoang, Long; Lauri, Hannu; Kummu, Matti; Koponen, Jorma; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Supit, Iwan; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-07-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.

  10. Medical Sequencing at the extremes of Human Body Mass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahituv, Nadav; Kavaslar, Nihan; Schackwitz, Wendy; Ustaszewski,Anna; Martin, Joes; Hebert, Sybil; Doelle, Heather; Ersoy, Baran; Kryukov, Gregory; Schmidt, Steffen; Yosef, Nir; Ruppin, Eytan; Sharan,Roded; Vaisse, Christian; Sunyaev, Shamil; Dent, Robert; Cohen, Jonathan; McPherson, Ruth; Pennacchio, Len A.

    2006-09-01

    Body weight is a quantitative trait with significantheritability in humans. To identify potential genetic contributors tothis phenotype, we resequenced the coding exons and splice junctions of58 genes in 379 obese and 378 lean individuals. Our 96Mb survey included21 genes associated with monogenic forms of obesity in humans or mice, aswell as 37 genes that function in body weight-related pathways. We foundthat the monogenic obesity-associated gene group was enriched for rarenonsynonymous variants unique to the obese (n=46) versus lean (n=26)populations. Computational analysis further predicted a significantlygreater fraction of deleterious variants within the obese cohort.Consistent with the complex inheritance of body weight, we did notobserve obvious familial segregation in the majority of the 28 availablekindreds. Taken together, these data suggest that multiple rare alleleswith variable penetrance contribute to obesity in the population andprovide a deep medical sequencing based approach to detectthem.

  11. Body Shape Changes with HIV

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HIV/AIDS Home Alternative Therapies Diet and Nutrition Discrimination Drugs and Alcohol Exercise Mental Health Sex and ... injections of dermal fillers that can lessen the appearance of these changes. Abdominal fat gain can be ...

  12. Transcriptome and network changes in climbers at extreme altitudes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Chen

    Full Text Available Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are largely unknown. To obtain a more complete picture of the transcriptional regulatory landscape and networks involved in extreme altitude response, we followed four climbers on an expedition up Mount Xixiabangma (8,012 m, and collected blood samples at four stages during the climb for mRNA and miRNA expression assays. By analyzing dynamic changes of gene networks in response to extreme altitudes, we uncovered a highly modular network with 7 modules of various functions that changed in response to extreme altitudes. The erythrocyte differentiation module is the most prominently up-regulated, reflecting increased erythrocyte differentiation from hematopoietic stem cells, probably at the expense of differentiation into other cell lineages. These changes are accompanied by coordinated down-regulation of general translation. Network topology and flow analyses also uncovered regulators known to modulate hypoxia responses and erythrocyte development, as well as unknown regulators, such as the OCT4 gene, an important regulator in stem cells and assumed to only function in stem cells. We predicted computationally and validated experimentally that increased OCT4 expression at extreme altitude can directly elevate the expression of hemoglobin genes. Our approach established a new framework for analyzing the transcriptional regulatory network from a very limited number of samples.

  13. Body Composition Changes Associated With Methadone Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadek

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background Methadone is associated with a statistically significant increase in BMI in the first 2 years of treatment. Objectives To evaluate the changes of body composition (bone mass, % fat, % muscle mass, % water, and basal metabolic rate related to this increase. Patients and Methods Changes in body composition were monitored, via bioelectrical impedance, in 29 patients in methadone treatment for opiate dependency (age 18 to 44, mean = 29.3, SD = 7.0, 13 men, 16 women. Results Within one year from admission to treatment, a statistically significant (t-tests, P < 0.05 increase was noted in their body mass index (BMI, % of body fat, average body mass, and average basal metabolic rate, and relative decrease in their % of muscle mass and % of bone mass. Neither absolute bone mass nor muscle mass changed significantly. Conclusions Physicians involved in care of methadone patients should recommend dietary and lifestyle changes to improve their overall health.

  14. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, P.L.; Lauri, P.; Kummu, M.; Koponen, J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Supit, I.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrologic

  15. Propagation of precipitation extremes into discharge extremes in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean basins are characterized by high precipitation variability, which presents strong seasonality, large inter-annual fluctuations and spatial variations during single events, and by wide spatial differences of terrain and surface properties. As a consequence, these catchments are often prone to the occurrence of hydro-meteorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. Several climate projections in this area predict a general exacerbation of intensity and frequency of extreme events, thus requiring further analyses to evaluate their impact at the land surface, especially in relatively small watersheds. In this study, we used climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) research project to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes under changing climate conditions in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5 km2), an agricultural watershed located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000; REF) and a future (2041-2070; FUT) period was simulated by using four combinations of global and regional climate models (CMs), statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We first conducted statistical analyses based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution on precipitation annual maxima at different durations (daily and hourly), extracted from the grids of the four selected CMs. Results show high uncertainties in climate projections, with GEV parameters differing among CMs, REF and FUT periods, and time duration. Subsequently, we fitted the GEV distribution to the series of maximum annual discharge data at daily and hourly duration, simulated by the hydrologic model at distributed basin locations. The analyses reveal that sub-basins characterized by lower slope and dominated by more impermeable soils have higher probabilities of extreme event occurrence than steeper

  16. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

  17. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  18. Uncertainties of Assessing Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L. D.; Barsugli, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Water resource managers share a common challenge in understanding what climate change could mean for future hydroclimate extremes. Understanding the uncertainty of projected changes in extremes is critical to making decisions about whether to invest in adaptation measures today or delay until more credible information becomes available. Uncertainties arise from several methodological choices including, including criteria that drive selection of global climate projection information to frame the assessment, whether and how to bias-correct global projection information, and how to represent local controls on how to spatially downscale translations of these projections. This presentation highlights such uncertainties, focusing on projected changes in precipitation indicated by two metrics: annual total and annual maximum daily amount. Attention is given to metric conditions varying from typical (i.e. metrics having 0.50 cumulative probability) to extreme (i.e. annual totals having 0.01 and 0.05 cumulative probabilities, which are relevant to drought, and annual maximum daily amounts having 0.95 and 0.99 cumulative probabilities, which are relevant to floods). The assessment is informed by an ensemble of 53 daily CMIP3 precipitation projections from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" web-archive (see URL), regridded over the contiguous United States from native climate model resolution to a common 2° grid and reported during 1961-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Focusing on changes between 20-year periods, evaluations include (a) assessing changes in typical metric conditions and determining whether changes in metric distributions are statistically significant, (b) characterizing metric extremes using parametric techniques and assessing for changes in metric extremes, (c) assessing how uncertainties in projected typical and extreme metrics associate with three sources of global climate projection uncertainty (emissions scenario, global

  19. [Hormonal changes in response to extreme environment factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koubassov, R V

    2014-01-01

    In this paper presented current state about hormonal changes in sympathetic-adrenal, hypophysis-adrenal, hypophysis-gonads and thyroid levels from extreme environment factors. It's shown that hypophysis gonads and thyroid endocrine links along with sympathetic adrenal, hypophysis adrenal axes are very important relevance in response to extreme environment factors and organism adaptation. In this time a hormonal secretion changes corresponds as interrelated reactions cascade in mechanisms of homeostasis maintenance. A studying of this mechanisms and revealing of its role in stress pathogenesis is fundamental biomedical investigation task. A problem solving allow to perfect prophylactic and treatment methods against stress diseases.

  20. Changes in extreme dry and wet precipitation spell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Onof, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to alter the behavior of hydroclimatic variables in various ways. Therefore, it is of great importance not only to identify which hydroclimatic variables are going through changes but also which of their specific characteristics change and in what way. For example the major focus regarding precipitation has been on changes or trends in extreme events or in annual totals, obviously, not without a reason. Yet one of the aspects of precipitation we believe is of equal importance and has not been extensively studied is extreme dry and wet spells. Changes in dry and wet spells can severely impact all aspects of human lives, ranging from infrastructure planning and water resources management to agriculture and infectious disease spread. In this study we perform an extensive analysis of extreme dry and wet precipitation spells using tenths of thousands of daily precipitation records in order to identify trends or variability changes in the maximum number of consecutive dry or wet days of each year. Our final goal is to evaluate the percentage of stations globally with positive/negative trends either in the mean value or in variability of extreme dry and wet spells and assess if this percentage is statistically justifiable.

  1. Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2014-08-28

    Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.

  2. Men's attraction to women's bodies changes seasonally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlowski, Bogusław; Sorokowski, Piotr

    2008-01-01

    Humans exhibit seasonal variation in hormone levels, behaviour, and perception. Here we show that men's assessments of women's attractiveness change also seasonally. In five seasons (from winter 2004 to winter 2005) 114 heterosexual men were asked to assess the attractiveness of the same stimuli: photos of a female with three different waist-to-hip ratios; photos of female breasts, and photos of average-looking faces of young women. For each season, the scores given to the stimuli of the same category (body shape, breast, and face) were combined. Friedman's test revealed significant changes for body shape and breast attractiveness assessments across the seasons, but no changes for face ratings. The highest scores for attractiveness were given in winter and the lowest in summer. We suggest that the observed seasonality is related to the well-known 'contrast effect'. More frequent exposure to women's bodies in warmer seasons might increase men's attractiveness criteria for women's body shape and breasts.

  3. The 2015 Oklahoma extreme precipitation: attribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, J.; Sobel, A. H.; Shaevitz, D.

    2016-12-01

    In a warming climate precipitation extremes increase disproportionally faster than the mean precipitation does. However, there are large uncertainties of the paces of the precipitation extreme increases among General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the tropics and subtropics, largely due to the deficiencies of convective parameterizations. A hierarchy of models, including regional models and cloud resolving models (CRM) with high resolutions to explicitly resolve convection, can provide insights to better constrain the GCM simulations. In this study, we apply a novel CRM modeling approach, the Column Quasi-Geostrophic (CQG) method, to examine responses of precipitation extreme to climate changes. The CQG approach uses a CRM in a relatively small domain with the large-scale vertical motion, which determines vertical advection of temperature and moisture, incorporated using the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Comparing with other CRM studies that prescribe the large-scale vertical motion, this method allows us to examine the dynamical component of precipitation increases (, to which the GCMs largely disagree with each other) to warming in addition to the thermodynamical component of increases (about 7% per K). We model the 2015 Oklahoma extreme rainfall event with CQG method, with the present climate and two counterfactual environments representing the pre-industry and an even warmer climate. Results are analyzed to attribute the extreme precipitation to climate changes, and to quantify the involved mechanisms.

  4. Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhe; Yang, Zhiyong; Yan, Denghua; Yin, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future.

  5. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hoang, L.P.; H. Lauri; M. Kummu; Koponen, J.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; I. Supit; Leemans, R.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrologica...

  6. Changing step width alters lower extremity biomechanics during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brindle, Richard A; Milner, Clare E; Zhang, Songning; Fitzhugh, Eugene C

    2014-01-01

    Step width is a spatiotemporal parameter that may influence lower extremity biomechanics at the hip and knee joint. The purpose of this study was to determine the biomechanical response of the lower extremity joints to step width changes during running. Lower extremity data from 30 healthy runners, half of them male, were collected during running in three step width conditions: preferred, wide, and narrow. Dependent variables and step width were analyzed using a mixed model ANOVA and pairwise t-tests for post hoc comparisons. Step width was successfully altered in the wide and narrow conditions. Generally, frontal plane peak values decreased as step width increased from narrow to preferred to wide. Peak hip adduction and rearfoot eversion angles decreased as step width increased from narrow to wide. Peak knee abduction moment and knee abduction impulse also decreased as step width increased from narrow to wide. Although men and women ran differently, gender only influenced the effect of step width on peak rearfoot inversion moment. In conclusion, step width influences lower extremity biomechanics in healthy runners. When step width increased from narrow to wide, peak values of frontal plane variables decreased. In addition to previously reported changes at the rearfoot, the hip and knee joint biomechanics were also influenced by changes in step width.

  7. Wind Turbine Extreme Gust Control. Recognition and Control of extreme operation gusts and wind direction changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanev, S.K.; Van Engelen, T.G. [ECN Wind Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

    2008-10-15

    This report presents the research activities and achieved results on extreme event recognition (EER) and control (EEC). This work has been performed within the framework of WP3 of the SenterNovem project Sustainable Control (SusCon). An extreme wind gust with direction change can lead to large loads on the turbine (causing fatigue) and unnecessary turbine shut-downs by the supervisory system due to rotor overspeed. The proposed EER algorithm is based on a nonlinear observer (extended Kalman filter) that estimates the oblique wind inflow angle and the blade effective wind speed signals, which are then used by a detection algorithm (CUSUM test) to recognize extreme events. The nonlinear observer requires that blade root bending moments measurements (in-plane and out-of-plane) are available. Once an extreme event is detected, an EEC algorithm is activated that (1) tries to prevent the rotor speed from exceeding the overspeed limit by fast collective blade pitching, and (2) reduces 1p blade loads by means of individual pitch control algorithm, designed in an H1 optimal control setting. The method is demonstrated on a complex nonlinear test turbine model.

  8. Projected Changes in Temperature Extremes in China Using PRECIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yujing Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95, the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5, high-temperature days (HTD and low-temperature days (LTD. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are used in the research. The results show that: (1 Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2 By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099, both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990 in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3 The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4 The intensity of the warm (cold extremes would increase (decrease significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5 by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the

  9. The effect of myostatin genotype on body temperature during extreme temperature events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, J T; Kachman, S D; Nielsen, M K; Mader, T L; Spangler, M L

    2013-07-01

    Extreme heat and cold events can create deleterious physiological changes in cattle as they attempt to cope. The genetic background of animals can influence their response to these events. The objective of the current study was to determine the impact of myostatin genotype (MG) on body temperature during periods of heat and cold stress. Two groups of crossbred steers and heifers of unknown pedigree and breed fraction with varying percentages of Angus, Simmental, and Piedmontese were placed in a feedlot over 2 summers and 2 winters. Before arrival, animals were genotyped for the Piedmontese-derived myostatin mutation (C313Y) to determine their MG as either homozygous normal (0 copy; n = 84), heterozygous (1 copy; n = 96), or homozygous for inactive myostatin (2 copy; n = 59). Hourly tympanic and vaginal temperature measurements were collected for steers and heifers, respectively, for 5 d during times of anticipated heat and cold stress. Mean (±SD) ambient temperature for summer and winter stress events were 24.4 (±4.64) and -1.80 (±11.71), respectively. A trigonometric function (sine + cosine) with periods of 12 and 24 h was used to describe the diurnal cyclical pattern. Hourly body temperature was analyzed within a season, and fixed effects included MG, group, trigonometric functions nested within group, and interaction of MG with trigonometric functions nested within group; random effects were animal and residual (Model [I]). A combined analysis of season and group was also investigated with the inclusion of season as a main effect and the nesting of effects within both group and season (Model [C]). In both models, the residual was fitted using an autoregressive covariance structure. A 3-way interaction of MG, season, and trigonometric function periodicities of 24 h (P 0.05). The current study illustrated that a genotype × environment interaction exists for MG and 1-copy animals were more robust to environmental extremes in comparison with 0- or 2-copy animals.

  10. Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-12-01

    The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

  11. Understanding Changes in frequency of extreme rainfall over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, C. B.; Lall, U.

    2010-12-01

    There has been much recent interest in examining changes in rainfall extremes of the Indian Monsoon, especially over the so-called core monsoon (Central Indian) region. Few such studies however consider the attribution to climatic variables (indices) of the observed variability. Using gridded daily rainfall data from 1901-2004, an attempt is made here to understand the evolution of frequency of extreme rainfall over the core monsoon region, and its relationship to relevant climatic indices(Equatorial India Ocean SST, an index of the Indian Ocean Dipole, NINO indices (NINO 3.4 and 1.2)). Using an objective definition of "extreme rainfall"( such that the thresholds chosen vary with grids but not overtime), two types of analyses are carried out. First, using spectral analyses (Wavelet and Multi-Taper), the relationship between climate indices and frequency of extremes are investigated. Subsequently, in a very general framework of quantile regression for count data, the existence of time trends are analyzed jointly with significance of climate indices at distinct quantiles. This approach allows for separate effects of the climate indices at different quanitles, thereby allowing for a more detailed investigation of the various relationships of interest postulated in the literature.

  12. Massage Changes Babies' Body, Brain and Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Chihiro; Shiga, Takashi

    Tactile stimulation is an important factor in mother-infant interactions. Many studies on both human and animals have shown that tactile stimulation during the neonatal period has various beneficial effects in the subsequent growth of the body and brain. In particular, massage is often applied to preterm human babies as “touch care”, because tactile stimulation together with kinesthetic stimulation increases body weight, which is accompanied by behavioral development and the changes of endocrine and neural conditions. Among them, the elevation of insulin-like growth factor-1, catecholamine, and vagus nerve activity may underlie the body weight gain. Apart from the body weight gain, tactile stimulation has various effects on the nervous system and endocrine system. For example, it has been reported that tactile stimulation on human and animal babies activates parasympathetic nervous systems, while suppresses the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenalcortical (HPA) axis, which may be related to the reduction of emotionality, anxiety-like behavior, and pain sensitivity. In addition, animal experiments have shown that tactile stimulation improves learning and memory. Facilitation of the neuronal activity and the morphological changes including the hippocampal synapse may underlie the improvement of the learning and memory. In conclusion, it has been strongly suggested that tactile stimulation in early life has beneficial effects on body, brain structure and function, which are maintained throughout life.

  13. Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.

    2016-09-01

    Located in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran has experienced many extreme flood and drought events in the last and current century. The present study aims to assess the changes in Iran's flood magnitude and drought severity for 1950-2010, with some time span variation in some stations. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend was first applied to assess changes in flood and drought severity data. In addition, to consider the effect of serial correlation, two Pre-Whitening Trend (PWT) tests were also applied. It was observed that the number of stations with statistically significant trends has increased after applying PWT tests. Both increasing and decreasing trends were observed for drought severity and flood magnitude in different climate regions and major basins of Iran using these tests. The increase in flood magnitude and drought severity can be attributed partly to land use changes, an annual rainfall negative trend, a maximum rainfall increasing trend, and inappropriate water resources management policies. The paper indicates a critical situation related to extreme climate change in Iran and the increasing risk of environmental changes in the 21st century.

  14. Effects of whole body vibration on spasticity and lower extremity function in children with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hsin-Yi Kathy; Ju, Yan-Ying; Chen, Chia-Ling; Chuang, Li-Ling; Cheng, Chih-Hsiu

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of whole body vibration (WBV) on lower extremity spasticity and ambulatory function in children with cerebral palsy (CP) with a complete crossover design. Sixteen participants aged 9.8(2.3) years received a 20-min WBV and a control condition in a counterbalanced order on two separate days. Change scores of each outcome variable were used to show the improvement. Repeated-measures analyses revealed significant differences in condition scores among variables including active range-of-motion (active ROM, increased), relaxation index (RI, increased), Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS, decreased), timed up-and-go (TUG, decreased), and Six Minute Walk Test (6MWT, increased). Significant differences were also found in time change scores for MAS and 6MWT. Correlation results revealed that TUG was significantly correlated with RI (r=-.512, p=.042), and 6MWT (r=-.700, p=.003). This study suggested that WBV intervention can control the spasticity, enhance ambulatory performance and increase active ROM. Along with previous results, data from this study revealed the potential use of WBV in clinical rehabilitation in children with CP. Future investigations should focus on finding the combination of treatment frequency and duration to achieve an ideal result. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2017-03-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3° C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2° per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  16. Body composition analyses by air displacement plethysmography in adults ranging from normal weight to extremely obese

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hames, Kazanna C.; Anthony, Steven J.; Thornton, John C.; Gallagher, Dympna; Goodpaster, Bret H.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To compare body composition parameters estimated by air displacement plethysmography (ADP) to dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in body mass index (BMI) classifications that include extremely obese (BMI≥40.0kg/m2), and to examine if differences between analyses were influenced by BMI. Design and Methods Fat free mass (FFM,kg), fat mass (FM,kg) and body fat (BF,%) were analyzed with both technologies. Results All outcome measures of ADP and DXA were highly correlated (r≥0.95,Pobese classification; ADP estimated lower FFM and greater FM and BF (Pobese. PMID:24170704

  17. Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamruzzaman, Mohammad; Beecham, Simon; Metcalfe, Andrew V.

    2017-02-01

    Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude.

  18. Body dissatisfaction, engagement in body change behaviors and sociocultural influences on body image among Chinese adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaoyan; Mellor, David; Kiehne, Melanie; Ricciardelli, Lina A; McCabe, Marita P; Xu, Yangang

    2010-03-01

    Body dissatisfaction and body image disorders are becoming increasingly prevalent in developing non-Western countries such as China, but there is a lack of research examining the sociocultural factors that in other contexts have been associated with these problems. The current study investigated body dissatisfaction, engagement in body change behaviors, and sociocultural pressures on body image, and the relationships between these variables among 517 adolescent males (N=219) and females (N=298) in China. Females reported greater body dissatisfaction than males, and males reported using strategies to increase their muscle bulk more often than females. Males reported pressure from a variety of sociocultural sources to increase their muscles or weight, while females reported pressure from the media to lose weight. For males body dissatisfaction was predicted by pressure from peers to increase their muscle bulk, while for females pressure to lose weight from peers, adult relatives, and the media was likely to increase body dissatisfaction. Pressure from the media and adult relatives was also predictive of body change behaviors in both males and females. The findings are discussed in relation to previous research in both Western and non-Western contexts. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Nocturnal loss of body reserves reveals high survival risk for subordinate great tits wintering at extremely low ambient temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krams, Indrikis; Cīrule, Dina; Vrublevska, Jolanta; Nord, Andreas; Rantala, Markus J; Krama, Tatjana

    2013-06-01

    Winter acclimatization in birds is a complex of several strategies based on metabolic adjustment accompanied by long-term management of resources such as fattening. However, wintering birds often maintain fat reserves below their physiological capacity, suggesting a cost involved with excessive levels of reserves. We studied body reserves of roosting great tits in relation to their dominance status under two contrasting temperature regimes to see whether individuals are capable of optimizing their survival strategies under extreme environmental conditions. We predicted less pronounced loss of body mass and body condition and lower rates of overnight mortality in dominant great tits at both mild and extremely low ambient temperatures, when ambient temperature dropped down to -43 °C. The results showed that dominant great tits consistently maintained lower reserve levels than subordinates regardless of ambient temperature. However, dominants responded to the rising risk of starvation under low temperatures by increasing their body reserves, whereas subdominant birds decreased reserve levels in harsh conditions. Yet, their losses of body mass and body reserves were always lower than in subordinate birds. None of the dominant great tits were found dead, while five young females and one adult female were found dead in nest boxes during cold spells when ambient temperatures dropped down to -43 °C. The dead great tits lost up to 23.83 % of their evening body mass during cold nights while surviving individuals lost on average 12.78 % of their evening body mass. Our results show that fattening strategies of great tits reflect an adaptive role of winter fattening which is sensitive to changes in ambient temperatures and differs among individuals of different social ranks.

  20. Projected changes in precipitation extremes linked to temperature over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S.; Dairaku, K.; Takayabu, I.; Suzuki-Parker, A.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have argued that the extreme precipitation intensities are increasing in many regions across the globe due to atmospheric warming. This argument is based on the principle of Clausius-Clapeyron relationship which states that the atmosphere can hold more moisture in warmer air temperature (~7%/°C). In our study, we have investigated the precipitation extremes linked to temperature in current climate (1981-2000) and their projected changes in late 21st century (2081-2100, RCP4.5) over Japan from multi-model ensemble downscaling experiments by three RCMs (NHRCM, NRAMS, WRF) forced by JRA25 as well as three GCMs (CCSM4, MIROC5, MRI-GCM3). To do this, the precipitation intensities of wet days (defined as ≥ 0.05 mm/d) are stratified to different bins with 1°C temperature interval. We have also identified the occurrences of precipitation extremes in different spell durations and associated peak intensities exceeding various thresholds in two climate periods. We found that extreme precipitation intensities are increased by 5 mm/d in future climate for temperatures above 21°C (Fig. 1). Precipitation extremes of higher percentiles are projected to have larger increase rates in future climate scenarios (3-5%/°C in the current climate and 4-6%/°C in the future climate scenarios). The joint probability distribution of wet hours (≥1mm/h) with various peak intensities under future climate scenarios (RCP4.5) of the late 21st century suggests an increase of long-lived (>10hr) and short-lived (1-2hr) events. On the other hand, a relatively decrease of medium-lived events (3-10hr) are noticed in future climate scenario. The increase of extreme precipitation intensities in future climate is due to the increase in temperature under RCP4.5 (~2°C). Increase in temperature causes more evapotranspiration and subsequently increases the water vapor in the atmosphere.

  1. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  2. Mid-Latitude Circulation and Extremes in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Gang [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2016-08-04

    Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very wide range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.

  3. Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, K.; Young, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment states that "increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions". While that general statement was made with high confidence, the practical implications for decision-makers are much less clear. In particular, engineering design needs quantitative estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values for the future in order to optimize runoff control structures for future climate conditions. This can be realized by simply analyzing the precipitation data from global climate model simulations of the future. However, confidence in the resulting values suffers from the known issues with GCM simulation of precipitation. In addition, skepticism about the accuracy of climate models negatively affects potential adoption of revised values in the engineering design community. We contend that scientists need a multi-pronged approach to develop PMP/IDF values that can be defended, explained, and promoted in order to maximize societal benefits and avoid catastrophic events. This talk will discuss considerations that could/should form the basis for design values. While global-warming induced increases in atmospheric water vapor content are nearly certain and form the foundation for expected increases in extreme precipitation, they most likely will be modulated by changes in global atmospheric dynamics and the consequent effects on local weather system climatology. This can be seen currently in the unexplained regional variations in recent trends in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity. We need to be able to understand recent trends, when greenhouse gas forcing of the climate systems has been rapidly increasing, in order to produce confident projections of future extreme precipitation.

  4. Growth Curve Analysis and Change-Points Detection in Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Meng, Rui

    2016-05-15

    The thesis consists of two coherent projects. The first project presents the results of evaluating salinity tolerance in barley using growth curve analysis where different growth trajectories are observed within barley families. The study of salinity tolerance in plants is crucial to understanding plant growth and productivity. Because fully-automated smarthouses with conveyor systems allow non-destructive and high-throughput phenotyping of large number of plants, it is now possible to apply advanced statistical tools to analyze daily measurements and to study salinity tolerance. To compare different growth patterns of barley variates, we use functional data analysis techniques to analyze the daily projected shoot areas. In particular, we apply the curve registration method to align all the curves from the same barley family in order to summarize the family-wise features. We also illustrate how to use statistical modeling to account for spatial variation in microclimate in smarthouses and for temporal variation across runs, which is crucial for identifying traits of the barley variates. In our analysis, we show that the concentrations of sodium and potassium in leaves are negatively correlated, and their interactions are associated with the degree of salinity tolerance. The second project studies change-points detection methods in extremes when multiple time series data are available. Motived by the scientific question of whether the chances to experience extreme weather are different in different seasons of a year, we develop a change-points detection model to study changes in extremes or in the tail of a distribution. Most of existing models identify seasons from multiple yearly time series assuming a season or a change-point location remains exactly the same across years. In this work, we propose a random effect model that allows the change-point to vary from year to year, following a given distribution. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are developed

  5. Body image and body change: Predictive factors in an Iranian population

    OpenAIRE

    Behshid Garrusi; Saeide Garousi; Baneshi, Mohammad R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultura...

  6. Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

    2014-12-01

    Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

  7. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  8. EFFECTS OF AN EXTREME ENDURANCE RACE ON ENERGY BALANCE AND BODY COMPOSITION - A CASE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Bircher

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this case study was to examine energy expenditure (EE in one cyclist during an extreme endurance cycling race - the "XXAlps 2004" (2,272 km distance and 55,455 m altitude which was completed in 5 days and 7 hours - and whether the energy deficit derives primarily from the degradation of subcutaneous adipose tissue or loss of muscle mass. Energy intake (EI was continuously recorded. EE was estimated using two different methods: 1 Continuous heart rate recording using a portable heart rate monitor (POLAR® S710 and 2 using the individual relationship between heart rate and oxygen uptake (VO2 determined under laboratory conditions. Body composition was assessed by measuring body mass, skinfold thickness and extremity circumferences. The cyclist lost 2.0 kg body mass, corresponding to 11,950 kcal (50 MJ. Fat mass was reduced by 790 g (7,110 kcal; 30 MJ and fat free mass by 1.21 kg (4,840 kcal; 20 MJ. Circumferences of the lower extremities were reduced, in contrast skinfold thickness at the lower limbs increased. Energy deficit (ED was calculated as the difference between EI and EE. Energy deficit using continuous heart rate monitoring was 29,554 kcal (124 MJ, and using the individual relationship between heart rate and VO2 was 7,111 kcal (30 MJ. The results show that the difference between ED due to decreased body mass and ED estimated from continuous heart rate monitoring was 74 MJ (124 MJ - 50 MJ. In contrast the difference between ED due to decreased body mass and ED estimated from laboratory data was 20 MJ (30 - 50 MJ. This difference between methodologies cannot properly be explained. Body mass and skinfold thickness may be overestimated due to hypoproteinemic oedemas during endurance exercise. Data from the present study suggests the individual relationship between heart rate and VO2 may provide a closer estimation of EE during extreme endurance exercise compared with corresponding data derived from continuous heart rate monitoring

  9. Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of

  10. Evaluating the contribution of lower extremity kinetics to whole body power output during the power snatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangwoo; DeRosia, Kyle D; Lamie, Landon M

    2017-09-21

    This study evaluated the contribution of lower extremity (hip, knee and ankle) net joint torques (NJT) to whole body power (WBP) output during the power snatch (PS). Ten experienced weightlifters (five males and five females) performed five trials of the PS with 60% of one repetition maximum. Lower extremity NJT and WBP were extracted through a three-dimensional motion analyses and used for data analyses. Pearson correlation coefficients were obtained to observe the relationship between lower extremity NJT and WBP. Multiple-regression (stepwise) analyses was also conducted to evaluate the contribution of lower extremity NJT to WBP during the PS with the hip, knee and ankle NJT being the independent variables. Hip NJT was characterised as a significant positive correlation with WBP (r = 0.47, p < 0.01), while knee NJT showed a significant negative correlation with WBP (r = -0.34, p < 0.05). A significant inter-correlation was also observed between hip NJT and knee NJT (r = -0.66, p < 0.01). Hip NJT was identified as a significant contributor to WBP during the PS. Practically, this study suggested that training skills allowing weightlifters to utilise hip extensor muscle action would help to improve WBP during the PS.

  11. Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. T. Nastos

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001 are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (% exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.

  12. The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

    2007-01-01

    Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations should...... be given to the destruction of the ability to regulate negative emotions (extreme fear, distress, anguish, anger, rage, shame) in relation to others and activate internal good and empathic object relations. Destruction of the capacity for symbolization of traumatic experience may threaten the mind...... with chaotic states against which the 'I' tries to defend itself and find a balanced psychic mise-en-scene. The authors emphasize three dimensions that the analyst should observe in his understanding of the traumatized mind and its conflicts. The proposed dimensions are called the body-other dimension...

  13. The nonequilibrium quantum many-body problem as a paradigm for extreme data science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freericks, J. K.; Nikolić, B. K.; Frieder, O.

    2014-12-01

    Generating big data pervades much of physics. But some problems, which we call extreme data problems, are too large to be treated within big data science. The nonequilibrium quantum many-body problem on a lattice is just such a problem, where the Hilbert space grows exponentially with system size and rapidly becomes too large to fit on any computer (and can be effectively thought of as an infinite-sized data set). Nevertheless, much progress has been made with computational methods on this problem, which serve as a paradigm for how one can approach and attack extreme data problems. In addition, viewing these physics problems from a computer-science perspective leads to new approaches that can be tried to solve more accurately and for longer times. We review a number of these different ideas here.

  14. Early changes in corticospinal excitability when seeing fearful body expressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgomaneri, Sara; Vitale, Francesca; Avenanti, Alessio

    2015-09-21

    Quick inhibition of approach tendencies in response to signals of potential threats is thought to promote survival. However, little is known about the effect of viewing fearful expressions on the early dynamics of the human motor system. We used the high temporal resolution of single-pulse and paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over the motor cortex to assess corticospinal excitability (CSE) and intracortical facilitation (ICF) during observation of happy, fearful and neutral body postures. To test motor circuits involved in approach tendencies, CSE and ICF were recorded from the first dorsal interosseous (FDI), a muscle involved in grasping, and the abductor pollicis brevis (APB), which served as a control. To test early motor dynamics, CSE and ICF were measured 70-90 ms after stimulus onset. We found a selective reduction in CSE in the FDI when participants observed fearful body expressions. No changes in ICF or in the excitability of APB were detected. Our study establishes an extremely rapid motor system reaction to observed fearful body expressions. This motor modulation involves corticospinal downstream projections but not cortical excitatory mechanisms, and appears to reflect an inhibition of hand grasping. Our results suggest a fast visuo-motor route that may rapidly inhibit inappropriate approaching actions.

  15. Extreme Environment Simulation - Current and New Capabilities to Simulate Venus and Other Planetary Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremic, Tibor; Vento, Dan; Lalli, Nick; Palinski, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    Science, technology, and planetary mission communities have a growing interest in components and systems that are capable of working in extreme (high) temperature and pressure conditions. Terrestrial applications range from scientific research, aerospace, defense, automotive systems, energy storage and power distribution, deep mining and others. As the target environments get increasingly extreme, capabilities to develop and test the sensors and systems designed to operate in such environments will be required. An application of particular importance to the planetary science community is the ability for a robotic lander to survive on the Venus surface where pressures are nearly 100 times that of Earth and temperatures approach 500C. The scientific importance and relevance of Venus missions are stated in the current Planetary Decadal Survey. Further, several missions to Venus were proposed in the most recent Discovery call. Despite this interest, the ability to accurately simulate Venus conditions at a scale that can test and validate instruments and spacecraft systems and accurately simulate the Venus atmosphere has been lacking. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities that are known to exist within and outside the United States to simulate the extreme environmental conditions found in terrestrial or planetary surfaces including the Venus atmosphere and surface. The paper then focuses on discussing the recent additional capability found in the NASA Glenn Extreme Environment Rig (GEER). The GEER, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio, is designed to simulate not only the temperature and pressure extremes described, but can also accurately reproduce the atmospheric compositions of bodies in the solar system including those with acidic and hazardous elements. GEER capabilities and characteristics are described along with operational considerations relevant to potential users. The paper presents initial operating results and concludes

  16. Scaling analysis of paces of fetal breathing, gross-body and extremity movements

    OpenAIRE

    Govindan, R. B.; Wilson, J D; Murphy, P; Russel, W.A.; Lowery, C L

    2007-01-01

    Using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), we studied the scaling properties of the time instances (occurrence) of the fetal breathing, gross-body, and extremity movements scored on a second by second basis from the recorded ultrasound measurements of 49 fetuses. The DFA exponent α of all the three movements of the fetuses varied between 0.63 and 1.1. We found an increase in α obtained for the movement due to breathing as a function of the gestational age while this trend was not observed fo...

  17. A Touch Sensing Technique Using the Effects of Extremely Low Frequency Fields on the Human Body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfekey, Hatem; Bastawrous, Hany Ayad; Okamoto, Shogo

    2016-12-02

    Touch sensing is a fundamental approach in human-to-machine interfaces, and is currently under widespread use. Many current applications use active touch sensing technologies. Passive touch sensing technologies are, however, more adequate to implement low power or energy harvesting touch sensing interfaces. This paper presents a passive touch sensing technique based on the fact that the human body is affected by the surrounding extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields, such as those of AC power lines. These external ELF fields induce electric potentials on the human body-because human tissues exhibit some conductivity at these frequencies-resulting in what is called AC hum. We therefore propose a passive touch sensing system that detects this hum noise when a human touch occurs, thus distinguishing between touch and non-touch events. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is validated by designing and implementing a flexible touch sensing keyboard.

  18. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Extremes Across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, C.; Dahné, J.; Andersson, J.; Arheimer, B.

    2012-04-01

    Regional scale predictions of floods and droughts are particularly useful for demonstrating to the general public the potential impacts of climate change, for example for the European continent. The E-HYPE pan-European application of the HYPE model was used to simulate hydrological data at a median subbasin resolution of 215 km2 for all of Europe. This data was then used to calculate, at this resolution, a number of drought and flood indices for today's climate and for a small ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate change projections. Indices calculated include the 1 in 10 and 1 in 50 year flood levels, mean annual high water discharge, mean annual low water discharge, number of days per year with hydrological drought and agricultural drought and the intensity of days with agricultural drought. Maps showing the relative changes in these variables for various time periods in the future were then made from the results. These maps may then be used to indicate 'hot-spots' for where hydrological extremes are important today and for where large changes in flood and drought levels or frequency may be expected for a future climate. The E-HYPE model, used to make these predictions, has been evaluated using a large data set of discharge observations (over 800) at independent sites across Europe. The model uses readily available pan-European input data sets and a single parameter set across the entire continent. This homogenous treatment of the model domain means that results from all over Europe are easily comparable. Validation is made to ensure the model simulates discharge volumes and daily variation at each station, but novel for this study is that a validation of the model's ability to capture the drought and flood indices was also made. Although E-HYPE is a large domain model, the high subbasin resolution means that these results are available at high-resolution across Europe. Nevertheless, prediction uncertainty increases with decreasing catchment scale, so this

  19. Small body size and extreme cortical bone remodeling indicate phyletic dwarfism in Magyarosaurus dacus (Sauropoda: Titanosauria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Koen; Csiki, Zoltan; Rogers, Kristina Curry; Weishampel, David B; Redelstorff, Ragna; Carballido, Jose L; Sander, P Martin

    2010-05-18

    Sauropods were the largest terrestrial tetrapods (>10(5) kg) in Earth's history and grew at rates that rival those of extant mammals. Magyarosaurus dacus, a titanosaurian sauropod from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) of Romania, is known exclusively from small individuals (dwarfism (phyletic nanism) in dinosaurs, but a recent study suggested that the small Romanian titanosaurs actually represent juveniles of a larger-bodied taxon. Here we present strong histological evidence that M. dacus was indeed a dwarf (phyletic nanoid). Bone histological analysis of an ontogenetic series of Magyarosaurus limb bones indicates that even the smallest Magyarosaurus specimens exhibit a bone microstructure identical to fully mature or old individuals of other sauropod taxa. Comparison of histologies with large-bodied sauropods suggests that Magyarosaurus had an extremely reduced growth rate, but had retained high basal metabolic rates typical for sauropods. The uniquely decreased growth rate and diminutive body size in Magyarosaurus were adaptations to life on a Cretaceous island and show that sauropod dinosaurs were not exempt from general ecological principles limiting body size.

  20. Hypothermia – mechanism of action and pathophysiological changes in the human body

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Sosnowski; Kinga Mikrut; Hanna Krauss

    2015-01-01

    This review focuses on the physiological responses and pathophysiological changes induced by hypothermia. Normal body function depends on its ability to maintain thermal homeostasis. The human body can be divided arbitrarily into two thermal compartments: a core compartment (trunk and head), with precisely regulated temperature around 37°C, and a peripheral compartment (skin and extremities) with less strictly controlled temperature, and lower than the core temperature. Thermoregulatory proce...

  1. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... in the daytime. The spatial changes in significant trends showed a good homogeneity and consistency in Inner Mongolia. Changes in the precipitation extremes were not as obvious as those in the temperature extremes. The spatial distributions in changes of precipitation extremes were complex. Adecreasing trend...

  2. Effect of Nordic Walking and Water Aerobics Training on Body Composition and the Blood Flow in Lower Extremities in Elderly Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasiński Ryszard

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Nordic walking and water aerobics are very popular forms of physical activity in the elderly population. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of regular health training on the venous blood flow in lower extremities and body composition in women over 50 years old. Twenty-four women of mean age 57.9 (± 3.43 years, randomly divided into three groups (Nordic walking, water aerobics, and non-training, participated in the study. The training lasted 8 weeks, with one-hour sessions twice a week. Dietary habits were not changed. Before and after training vein refilling time and the function of the venous pump of the lower extremities were measured by photoplethysmography. Body composition was determined by bioelectrical impedance. Eight weeks of Nordic walking training improved the venous blood flow in lower extremities and normalized body composition in the direction of reducing chronic venous disorder risk factors. The average values of the refilling time variable (p = 0.04, p = 0.02, respectively decreased in both the right and the left leg. After training a statistically significant increase in the venous pump function index was found only in the right leg (p = 0.04. A significant increase in fat-free mass, body cell mass and total body water was observed (p = 0.01, whereas body mass, the body mass index, and body fat decreased (p < 0.03. With regard to water aerobic training, no similar changes in the functions of the venous system or body composition were observed.

  3. Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are ...

  4. Sexual body ideal among Zulu women: Continuity and change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sexual body ideal among Zulu women: Continuity and change. ... Among the Zulu in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal Province, overweight and obese women are ... their body weight, size and shape, against the backdrop of an individual's image ...

  5. Narcissism as a moderator of satisfaction with body image in young women with extreme underweight and obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Lipowska

    Full Text Available Body weight and age constitute main determinants of body image in women. We analyzed the role of narcissism as a moderator of body image in young women representing various extremes of body weight.The study included 325 women between 18 and 35 years, qualified into three BMI categories: obese women (BMI > 30.0, n = 72, severely underweight women who did not satisfy the remaining criteria of anorexia (BMI 22.7, n = 168. Satisfaction with body image was determined with Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire and Body Esteem Scale, while narcissism was measured with Narcissistic Personality Inventory.We revealed that narcissism has significant impact on the body image of women who are extremely underweight or obese. Vanity and Leadership were narcissism dimensions which played significant role in slim women, as compared to Vanity and Self-Sufficiency in obese women.The role of narcissism as a modulator of self-satisfaction with one's body varies depending on BMI level: extremely underweight women and obese individuals constitute groups in which narcissism has the strongest impact on the self-satisfaction with body.

  6. Narcissism as a Moderator of Satisfaction with Body Image in Young Women with Extreme Underweight and Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipowska, Małgorzata; Lipowski, Mariusz

    2015-01-01

    Objective Body weight and age constitute main determinants of body image in women. We analyzed the role of narcissism as a moderator of body image in young women representing various extremes of body weight. Methods The study included 325 women between 18 and 35 years, qualified into three BMI categories: obese women (BMI > 30.0, n = 72), severely underweight women who did not satisfy the remaining criteria of anorexia (BMI 22.7, n = 168). Satisfaction with body image was determined with Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire and Body Esteem Scale, while narcissism was measured with Narcissistic Personality Inventory. Principal Findings We revealed that narcissism has significant impact on the body image of women who are extremely underweight or obese. Vanity and Leadership were narcissism dimensions which played significant role in slim women, as compared to Vanity and Self-Sufficiency in obese women. Conclusion The role of narcissism as a modulator of self-satisfaction with one’s body varies depending on BMI level: extremely underweight women and obese individuals constitute groups in which narcissism has the strongest impact on the self-satisfaction with body. PMID:25961302

  7. Narcissism as a moderator of satisfaction with body image in young women with extreme underweight and obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipowska, Małgorzata; Lipowski, Mariusz

    2015-01-01

    Body weight and age constitute main determinants of body image in women. We analyzed the role of narcissism as a moderator of body image in young women representing various extremes of body weight. The study included 325 women between 18 and 35 years, qualified into three BMI categories: obese women (BMI > 30.0, n = 72), severely underweight women who did not satisfy the remaining criteria of anorexia (BMI 22.7, n = 168). Satisfaction with body image was determined with Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire and Body Esteem Scale, while narcissism was measured with Narcissistic Personality Inventory. We revealed that narcissism has significant impact on the body image of women who are extremely underweight or obese. Vanity and Leadership were narcissism dimensions which played significant role in slim women, as compared to Vanity and Self-Sufficiency in obese women. The role of narcissism as a modulator of self-satisfaction with one's body varies depending on BMI level: extremely underweight women and obese individuals constitute groups in which narcissism has the strongest impact on the self-satisfaction with body.

  8. Climate change impacts on hydrological extremes in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hoffmann, Peter

    2016-04-01

    An increase of hydro-climatic extremes can be observed worldwide and is challenging national and regional risk management and adaptation plans. Our study presents and discusses possible trends in climate drivers and hydro-climatic extremes in Europe observed and under future climate conditions. In a case study for Germany, impacts of different regional climate scenario ensembles are compared. To this end, a hydrological model was applied to transform the scenarios data into river runoff for more than 5000 river reaches in Germany. Extreme Value Distributions have been fitted to the hydrographs of the river reaches to derive the basic flood statistics. The results for each river reach have been linked to related damage functions as provided by the German Insurance Association considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The robust result is that under scenario conditions a significant increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany, while also the number of low flow events may rise.

  9. Optimal plane changes using third-body forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villac, B F; Scheeres, D J

    2004-05-01

    The fuel optimality of third-body driven plane changes (i.e., plane changes performed by using third-body forces) over one-impulse transfers is investigated numerically and analytically. In particular, the range of third-body driven plane changes that are realizable is shown to be restricted and one impulse must be used in the uncovered regions. However, when third-body driven plane changes are realizable, it is shown that they are always optimal above a certain critical value (about 40 degrees ) that depends on the initial condition. Contour plots of optimal DeltaV values to perform a desired plane changes are given.

  10. Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: an explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Balboa, C; Baselga-Cervera, B; García-Sanchez, A; Igual, J M; Lopez-Rodas, V; Costas, E

    2013-11-15

    Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These "lucky mutants" could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change.

  11. An extremely low body weight infant born to a mother with measles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, H; Hashimoto, K; Imamura, T; Sato, M; Kawasaki, Y; Momoi, N; Hosoya, M

    2010-02-01

    The incidence of measles epidemics has decreased recently owing to the development and widespread use of measles vaccine in the United States of America and Europe. However, repeated measles epidemics have been reported in Japan. Here, the authors report a case of an extremely low body weight infant (ELBWI) whose mother had a measles virus infection. Real-time PCR was performed on the infant's blood and urine samples and skin, nasal secretion, and anal swabs, as well as on the mother's breast milk, blood samples and throat swabs. The infant was found to be positive for measles virus by PCR, but not immunoglobulin M positive. An earlier report showed that there were no such cases in which the patient was found to be positive for measles virus by real-time PCR but was not infected by the measles virus.

  12. A Touch Sensing Technique Using the Effects of Extremely Low Frequency Fields on the Human Body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatem Elfekey

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Touch sensing is a fundamental approach in human-to-machine interfaces, and is currently under widespread use. Many current applications use active touch sensing technologies. Passive touch sensing technologies are, however, more adequate to implement low power or energy harvesting touch sensing interfaces. This paper presents a passive touch sensing technique based on the fact that the human body is affected by the surrounding extremely low frequency (ELF electromagnetic fields, such as those of AC power lines. These external ELF fields induce electric potentials on the human body—because human tissues exhibit some conductivity at these frequencies—resulting in what is called AC hum. We therefore propose a passive touch sensing system that detects this hum noise when a human touch occurs, thus distinguishing between touch and non-touch events. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is validated by designing and implementing a flexible touch sensing keyboard.

  13. Research on Three-dimensional Motion History Image Model and Extreme Learning Machine for Human Body Movement Trajectory Recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng Chang; Xiaojuan Ban; Qing Shen; Jing Guo

    2015-01-01

    Based on the traditional machine vision recognition technology and traditional artificial neural networks about body movement trajectory, this paper finds out the shortcomings of the traditional recognition technology. By combining the invariant moments of the three-dimensional motion history image (computed as the eigenvector of body movements) and the extreme learning machine (constructed as the classification artificial neural network of body movements), the paper applies the method to the...

  14. Venous hemodynamic changes of lower extremity during gynecological laparoscopy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN Shan-de; LIU Yan; HE Sheng

    2004-01-01

    To study the effect of CO2 pneumoperitoneum and the special 30 degree head-down tilt positionon the venous hemodynamics in the lower extremity. Methods: Color doplex ultrasound was adopted to evaluate the diameterand blood flow velocity of the right femoral vein of 18 patients undergoing gynecologic laparoscopy under the same pressure ofpneumoperitoneum of 12 mmHg. The diameter of femoral vein and the flow velocity were measured; the blood flow volumewas calculated based on the equation of Q = vπr2 . Result: After establishment of pneumoperitoneum, the dilation of the fem-oral vein and the decrease in the velocity and volume can be observed (P < 0.05). And the 30 degree head-down positioncould increase the flow velocity and volume of the femoral vein and decrease the diameter of the vessel ( P < 0.05). At 30minutes of the 30 degree head-down tilt position, the blood flow ameliorated compared with that in prone position after theestablishment of pneumoperitoneum. After deflation of pneumoperitoneum, the femoral vein remained dilated( P < 0.05 ).Conclusion: During laparoscopy, CO2 pneumoperitoneum may result in the dilation of the vein in lower extremity and retar-dance of blood flow. The 30 degree Trendlenburg position can ameliorate the blood flow in the lower extremity. The deflationof the pneumoperitoneum cannot eliminate the effect of CO2 pneumoperitoneum on the lower extremity veins, which may pre-dispose deep venous thrombosis after laparoscopy.

  15. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events; Impacts du changement climatique sur les evenements climatiques extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Terray, L. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  16. Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: An explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Salamanca (IRNASA-CSIC), PO Box 257, 37071 Salamanca (Spain); Lopez-Rodas, V. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Costas, E., E-mail: ecostas@vet.ucm.es [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change.

  17. Body Image and Body Change: Predictive Factors in an Iranian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrusi, Behshid; Garousi, Saeide; Baneshi, Mohammad R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD) of age was 31.06 (10.24) years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted. PMID:24049621

  18. Body image and body change: Predictive factors in an Iranian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behshid Garrusi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI, Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD of age was 31.06 (10.24 years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.

  19. Role of media and peers on body change strategies among adult men: is body size important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Marita P; McGreevy, Shauna J

    2011-01-01

    There has been limited previous research that has examined the role of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult men. The current study investigated the role of specific types of messages (encouragement, teasing and modelling) from peers and the media on the strategies to change weight among adult men. Differences were evaluated between 526 men aged from 18 to 60 years from three groups (normal weight, overweight and obese) on body image, body change strategies and messages about their body received from peers and the media. Men were primarily drawn from United States, Australia and Europe. Results showed that messages received by men regarding losing weight or increasing muscle size differed according to weight. Body image and media messages were the strongest predictors of losing weight, whereas body image importance and messages from peers were the strongest predictors of increasing muscles. These findings highlight the importance of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult males.

  20. Variability and long-term change in Australian temperature and precipitation extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dörte Jakob

    2016-12-01

    We conclude that in assessing the likelihood of climate hazards, one needs to consider the modulation of climate extremes due to both long-term change and climate variability. Our findings imply that when planning for adaptation, different emphasis needs to be given to changing temperature and precipitation extremes.

  1. Changing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe's Climate of the 20th Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Tank, Albertus Maria Gerardus

    2004-01-01

    This thesis aims at increasing the knowledge on past changes in extremes through the analysis of historical records of observations at meteorological stations. The key question addressed is: How did the extremes of daily surface air temperature and precipitation change in Europe's climate of the

  2. Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

  3. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  4. Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Willems, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change...

  5. Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2012-09-01

    A global perspective is developed on a number of high impact climate extremes in 2010 through diagnostic studies of the anomalies, diabatic heating, and global energy and water cycles that demonstrate relationships among variables and across events. Natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences together resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in several places that played a vital role in subsequent developments. Record high SSTs in the Northern Indian Ocean in May 2010, the Gulf of Mexico in August 2010, the Caribbean in September 2010, and north of Australia in December 2010 provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for nearby monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan, Colombia, and Queensland. The resulting anomalous diabatic heating in the northern Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans altered the atmospheric circulation by forcing quasi-stationary Rossby waves and altering monsoons. The anomalous monsoonal circulations had direct links to higher latitudes: from Southeast Asia to southern Russia, and from Colombia to Brazil. Strong convection in the tropical Atlantic in northern summer 2010 was associated with a Rossby wave train that extended into Europe creating anomalous cyclonic conditions over the Mediterranean area while normal anticyclonic conditions shifted downstream where they likely interacted with an anomalously strong monsoon circulation, helping to support the persistent atmospheric anticyclonic regime over Russia. This set the stage for the "blocking" anticyclone and associated Russian heat wave and wild fires. Attribution is limited by shortcomings in models in replicating monsoons, teleconnections and blocking.

  6. Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xin; Fang, Guohua; Qi, Heshuai; Zhou, Lei; Gao, Yuqin

    2016-10-01

    Historical temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are quantified and evaluated throughout the landmass of China. A statistical model of climate extremes based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to both historical climate data and bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. The results indicate relatively moderate historical warm extreme conditions in China with regional means of maximum temperature 28.9, 29.4, and 29.8 °C for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, respectively, whereas the corresponding regional means of minimum temperature are -20.1, -20.8, and -21.5 °C, manifesting a downward trend northwardly with relative larger regional variations in cold extremes. The historical precipitation extremes also decline gradually from south-southeast toward northwest with significant regional differences. As for the future, the warm extremes are expected to aggravate by roughly 1.66-4.92 °C projected by CMIP5, indicating larger increasing rate and spatial differences compared to cold extremes. The extreme precipitation is projected to increase 7.9-13.4 %, the dry regions would see a larger increasing rate compared to wet regions. The increasing radiative forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in both temperature and precipitation extreme magnitudes. Also, the warm extreme changes are more sensitive to the radiative forcing concentration than the cold extremes. The CMIP5 projections basically maintain a favorable inter-model consistency in temperature and rainfall extreme simulation for the future, but the inter-model difference of warm extremes is larger than cold extremes.

  7. The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Betts, Richard A.

    2013-02-01

    Abstract Understanding how temperature extremes respond in a climate forced by human activity is of great importance, as extreme temperatures are detrimental to health and often responsible for mortality increases. While previous detection and attribution studies demonstrated a significant human influence on the recent warming of daily extremes, contributions of individual anthropogenic forcings like changes in land use have not yet been investigated in such studies. Here we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to data from observations and experiments with a new earth system model to examine whether changing land use has led to detectable changes in daily extreme temperatures on a quasi-global scale. We find that loss of trees and increase of grassland since preindustrial times has caused an overall cooling trend in both mean and extreme temperatures which is detectable in the observed changes of warm but not cold extremes. The warming in both mean and extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic forcings other than land use is detected in all cases, whereas the weaker effect of natural climatic forcings is not detected in any. This is the first formal attribution of observed climatic changes to changing land use, suggesting further investigations are justified, particularly in studies of warm extremes.

  8. Changes in weather extremes over East Asia due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Min-Hee; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Song, Chang-Geun

    2010-05-01

    The changes in weather extremes due to the global warming induced by the emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases have received growing attention in climate research community. In this study, the authors introduce new indices that assess changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia for the periods of past 100 years and future 100 years. Observed temperatures and precipitation at 895 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan have been analyzed for 1960s-2000s. In addition, we examined data from a global climate model simulation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model for 1900-2099. The observations show increasing trends in warm and dry extremes, and decreases in cold extremes, particularly in northern East Asia. A notable regional anomaly is the increase in wet extremes over the Korean Peninsula. The temperature extremes in the model simulations are similar to the observed features in the same region during the for the 20th and 21st century periods.

  9. Recent changes in extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia: 1971-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jamaludin, Suhaila; Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2009-05-01

    This paper assesses recent changes in extremes of annual rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on daily rainfall data for ten rain-gauged stations over the period 1971-2005. Eight indices that represent the extreme events are defined and analyzed. Maps of trends for these indices, which are extreme dry spell (XDS), extreme rain sum (XRS), extreme wet day intensities at 95% and 99% percentiles (I95 and I99), proportion of extreme wet day to the total wet day (R95 and R99), and frequency of extreme wet day at 95% and 99% percentiles (N95 and N99), were analyzed based on annual data and seasons. When the indices are evaluated annually, the Mann-Kendall and linear regression trend tests showed increasing trends in the extreme intensity indices (I95 and I99) at two stations. A significant decrease in N99, associated with the frequency of extremely wet days, was observed at 60% of the stations. The change points for these indices are found to occur in the period of the 1980s. There is no significant trend detected for XDS, XRS, and proportion of extreme rainfall over total rainfall amount indices during the period considered in this study. Descriptive analysis of indices during the monsoon period showed that the annual spatial pattern for the peninsula is very much influenced by the northeast monsoon where the highest mean values for majority of the indices occur during this time period.

  10. Analysis of observational data from Extreme Ultra-Violet Camera onboard Chang'E-3 mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan; Wang, Hua-Ning; He, Han; He, Fei; Chen, Bo; Feng, Jian-Qing; Ping, Jin-Song; Shen, Chao; Xu, Rong-Lan; Zhang, Xiao-Xin

    2016-02-01

    The Extreme Ultra-Violet Camera (hereafter EUVC) is a scientific payload onboard the lander of the Chang'E-3 (hereafter CE-3) mission launched on December 1st, 2013. Centering on a spectral band around 30.4 nm, EUVC provides the global images of the Earth's plasmasphere from the meridian view, with a spatial resolution of 0.1 R_{oplus} in 150 × 150 pixels and a cadence of 10 minutes. Along with the data being publicly released online, some unsettled issues in the early stage have been clarified, including the geometrical preparations, the refined approach on the coefficient K for the background, and the alignment among the images. A demo of data after all the above processes is therefore presented as a guidance for users who are studying the structure and dynamics of the plasmasphere.

  11. Body size and walking cadence affect lower extremity joint power in children's gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Sarah P; Hills, Andrew P; Sitler, Michael R; Hillstrom, Howard J

    2010-06-01

    Obese children move less and with greater difficulty than normal-weight counterparts but expend comparable energy. Increased metabolic costs have been attributed to poor biomechanics but few studies have investigated the influence of obesity on mechanical demands of gait. This study sought to assess three-dimensional lower extremity joint powers in two walking cadences in 28 obese and normal-weight children. 3D-motion analysis was conducted for five trials of barefoot walking at self-selected and 30% greater than self-selected cadences. Mechanical power was calculated at the hip, knee, and ankle in sagittal, frontal and transverse planes. Significant group differences were seen for all power phases in the sagittal plane, hip and knee power at weight acceptance and hip power at propulsion in the frontal plane, and knee power during mid-stance in the transverse plane. After adjusting for body weight, group differences existed in hip and knee power phases at weight acceptance in sagittal and frontal planes, respectively. Differences in cadence existed for all hip joint powers in the sagittal plane and frontal plane hip power at propulsion. Frontal plane knee power at weight acceptance and sagittal plane knee power at propulsion were significantly different between cadences. Larger joint powers in obese children contribute to difficulty performing locomotor tasks, potentially decreasing motivation to exercise.

  12. Ultrasound guided percutaneous removal of wooden foreign bodies in the extremities with hydro-dissection technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, HeeJin; Lee, So Yeon; Chung, Eun Chul; Rho, Myung Ho [Dept. of Radiology, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sung Moon; Son, Eun Seok [Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sun Joo [Dept. of Radiology, Inje University College of Medicine, Busan Paik Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    We described the technique of ultrasound (US)-guided percutaneous removal of the foreign bodies (FB) with hydro-dissection in the radiologic department and presented video files of several cases.Four patients referred to the radiology department for US evaluation and US-guided percutaneous removal of the FBs in the upper and lower extremities between November, 2006 and November, 2013 were included in this study. The procedures started with US evaluation for the exact location and shape of the FB. A 5 mm-sized skin incision was made at the site of the nearest point from the FB where no passing arteries or tendons were present. We adopted a hydro dissection technique to separate the FB from adjacent tissue using a 2% lidocaine solution. Injected anesthetics detached the FBs from surrounding tissue and thereby facilitated removal. After the tip of the mosquito forceps reached the FB, the wooden FBs were removed. The mean time required for the entire procedure was approximately 20 minutes. There were no significant complications during the US-guided removal or long-term complications after the procedure. All 4 FBs were successfully removed from the soft tissue under US guidance. Ultrasound-guided percutaneous removal of the FBs with hydro-dissection in the radiology department is a less invasive and safe method over surgical removal in the operating room. Additionally, the use of a guide wire and serial dilator may help minimize soft tissue injury and facilitate the introduction of forceps.

  13. Total body fat percentage and body mass index and the association with lower extremity injuries in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Eva; Verhagen, Evert; Holst, René;

    2014-01-01

    Overweight youths are generally recognised as being at increased risk of sustaining lower extremity injuries in sports. However, previous studies are inconclusive and choices for measuring overweight are manifold....

  14. changes in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    classified as hotspots to climate change – such as northwest. Nigeria. This study ... poor water supply, sanitation, and overcrowding. Flooding caused ... breakage or contaminations of drinking water with severe impacts to population health.

  15. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Juan MORENO; Anders Pape Mφller

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history.

  16. Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

  17. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kui Xu

    Full Text Available Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05. The design joint return period (RP of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  18. Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

  19. Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang;

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods...... was shown for total precipitation from west to east as based on the spatial distribution of decadal trends. Drought was the most serious extreme disaster, and prolonged drought for longer than 3 yr occurred about every 7-11 yr. An increasing trend in the disaster area was apparent for flood events from 1951......, and snowstorms, were also investigated for the same period. The correlations between catastrophic events and the extreme indices were examined. The results show that the Mongolian Plateau experienced an asymmetric warming trend. Both the cold extremes and warm extremes showed greater warming at night than...

  20. Predictors of Changes in Body Image Concerns of Chinese Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong; Jackson, Todd

    2009-01-01

    This nine-month prospective study tested the extent to which risk factors implicated in recent accounts of body dissatisfaction predicted changes in body image concerns of adolescent boys and girls in China. A sample of 593 Chinese adolescents (217 boys, 376 girls) completed measures of weight esteem, appearance esteem and physical stature concern…

  1. Predictors of Changes in Body Image Concerns of Chinese Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong; Jackson, Todd

    2009-01-01

    This nine-month prospective study tested the extent to which risk factors implicated in recent accounts of body dissatisfaction predicted changes in body image concerns of adolescent boys and girls in China. A sample of 593 Chinese adolescents (217 boys, 376 girls) completed measures of weight esteem, appearance esteem and physical stature concern…

  2. Body weight changes in elderly psychogeriatric nursing home residents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoops, K.T.B.; Slump, E.; Groot, de C.P.G.M.; Wouters-Wesseling, W.; Brouwer, M.L.; Staveren, van W.A.

    2005-01-01

    Objective. This study was undertaken to identify predictors of body weight change in nursing home patients with possible to severe dementia. Methods. For 24 weeks, 108 elderly residents of a nursing home were followed. Body weight was measured every 2 weeks. Other anthropometric characteristics, die

  3. Changes in body weight and pulse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seimon, R V; Espinoza, D; Finer, N

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined the rela......BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined...... included in this current subanalysis of the SCOUT trial. Subjects were required to have a history of cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, to assess cardiovascular outcomes. The primary outcome event (POE) was a composite of nonfatal myocardial...... rate and changes in pulse rate may not be an important modifier nor a clinically useful predictor of outcome in an individual elderly cardiovascular obese subject exposed to weight management....

  4. Operative Risk for Major Lung Resection Increases at Extremes of Body Mass Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Trevor; Gulack, Brian C; Kim, Sunghee; Fernandez, Felix G; Ferguson, Mark K

    2017-01-01

    Although body mass index (BMI) has been used in risk stratification for lung resection, many models only take obesity into account. Recent studies have demonstrated that underweight patients also experience increased postoperative complications. We explored the relationship of extremes of BMI to outcomes after lung resection for non-small cell cancer. Patients in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database (2009 to 2014) undergoing elective lung resection for cancer were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders including functional status and spirometry. We evaluated 41,446 patients (median 68 years of age; 53% female) grouped by BMI: underweight (obese I (30 to 34.9 kg/m(2); 18.1%), obese II (35 to 39.9 kg/m(2); 6.4%), and obese III (≥40 kg/m(2); 3.6%). Pulmonary complication rates were higher in underweight and obese III patients compared to normal BMI patients (p Obese III patients had an increased risk of any major postoperative complication (adjusted OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.36). Overweight and obese class I to II patients had a lower risk of pulmonary complications and any postoperative event. BMI is associated with postoperative complications after lung resection for cancer. Being underweight or severely overweight is associated with an increased risk of complications, whereas being overweight or moderately obese appears to have a protective effect. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  6. Changes of the Temperature and Precipitation Extremes on Homogenized Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAKATOS, Mónika

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate indices to detect changes have been defined in several international projects onclimate change. Climate index calculations require at least daily resolution of time series withoutinhomogeneities, such as transfer of stations, changes in observation practice. In many cases thecharacteristics of the estimated linear trends, calculated from the original and from the homogenizedtime series are significantly different. The ECA&D (European Climate Assessment & Dataset indicesand some other special temperature and precipitation indices of own development were applied to theClimate Database of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Long term daily maximum, minimum anddaily mean temperature data series and daily precipitation sums were examined. The climate indexcalculation processes were tested on original observations and on homogenized daily data fortemperature; in the case of precipitation a complementation process was performed to fill in the gapsof missing data. Experiences of comparing the climate index calculation results, based on original andcomplemented-homogenized data, are reported in this paper. We present the preliminary result ofclimate index calculations also on gridded (interpolated daily data.

  7. Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YanWei Zhang; QuanSheng Ge; FengQing Jiang; JingYun Zheng; WenShou Wei

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies), was made for future precipitation extremes, under SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI (Climate Change Detection and Indices). The results show that: (1) In Present Scenario (1961–1900), PRECIS could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. (2) The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation's increase in frequency and intensity during 1961–2008. Under SRES A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 21st century. The extreme summer pre-cipitation increased prominently in a year. (3) PRECIS's simulation under SRES A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2 scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different SRES.

  8. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    stream_size 143507 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt stream_source_info Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt Content.... This was compounded by the rate of local mean sea-level rise relative to the land level of the Mississippi Delta of several times the global average, as occurs naturally in all major deltas, together with anthropogenic changes to the delta wetlands. On much longer...

  9. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  10. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-04-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  11. Change of body composition in process of power conditional training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anikieiev D.M.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to work out recommendations on choosing of exercises for power conditional trainees, considering decrease of fat mass percentage as the purpose. Methods: analysis of changes of body composition of trainees, practicing different kinds of conditional power training. Results: the data about influence of different physical loads on thickness of subcutaneous fat in different parts of body have been generalized. Recommendations on choosing of exercises for power conditional trainees for body composition improving have been presented. It was found that fat loss occurs quicker in upper part of body (subcutaneous and visceral. This is observed with increasing of motor functioning and reducing calories of eating. When training any separate muscular group changes of subcutaneous fat take place not compulsory in body parts, in which the trained group is located. Conclusions: it is purposeful to mainly use basic (multi-joint exercises in power conditional training.

  12. Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao

    2015-08-01

    The decline in Arctic sea ice cover has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts locally. An emerging and highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. Of particular societal relevance is the open question: will continued Arctic sea ice loss make mid-latitude weather more extreme? Here we analyse idealized atmospheric general circulation model simulations, using two independent models, both forced by projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. We identify robust projected changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes arising solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. The likelihood and duration of cold extremes are projected to decrease over high latitudes and over central and eastern North America, but to increase over central Asia. Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and duration over high latitudes. The likelihood and severity of wet extremes are projected to increase over high latitudes, the Mediterranean and central Asia; and their intensity is projected to increase over high latitudes and central and eastern Asia. The number of dry days over mid-latitude Eurasia and dry spell duration over high latitudes are both projected to decrease. There is closer model agreement for projected changes in temperature extremes than for precipitation extremes. Overall, we find that extreme weather over central and eastern North America is more sensitive to Arctic sea ice loss than over other mid-latitude regions. Our results are useful for constraining the role of Arctic sea ice loss in shifting the odds of extreme weather, but must not be viewed as deterministic projections, as they do not account for drivers other than Arctic sea ice loss.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  14. Effective body water and body mass changes during summer ultra-endurance road cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Lawrence E; Johnson, Evan C; Ganio, Matthew S; Judelson, Daniel A; Vingren, Jakob L; Kupchak, Brian R; Kunces, Laura J; Muñoz, Colleen X; McKenzie, Amy L; Williamson, Keith H

    2015-01-01

    Because body mass change (ΔMb) does not represent all water losses and gains, the present field investigation determined if (a) ΔMb equalled the net effective body water change during ultra-endurance exercise and (b) ground speed and exercise duration influenced these variables. Thirty-two male cyclists (age range, 35-52 years) completed a 164-km event in a hot environment, were retrospectively triplet matched and placed into one of three groups based on exercise duration (4.8, 6.3, 9.6 h). Net effective body water loss was computed from measurements (body mass, total fluid intake and urine excreted) and calculations (water evolved and mass loss due to substrate oxidation, solid food mass and sweat loss), including (ΔEBWgly) and excluding (ΔEBW) water bound to glycogen. With all cyclists combined, the mean ΔMb (i.e. loss) was greater than that of ΔEBWgly by 1200 ± 200 g (P = 1.4 × 10(-18)), was similar to ΔEBW (difference, 0 ± 200 g; P = .21) and was strongly correlated with both (R(2) = .98). Analysis of equivalence indicated that ΔMb was not equivalent to ΔEBWgly, but was equivalent to ΔEBW. Due to measurement complexity, we concluded that (a) athletes will not calculate the effective body water calculations routinely and (b) body mass change remains a useful field-expedient estimate of net effective body water change.

  15. Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

    2012-01-01

    Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

  16. Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita

    2010-01-12

    Precipitation extreme changes are often assumed to scale with, or are constrained by, the change in atmospheric moisture content. Studies have generally confirmed the scaling based on moisture content for the midlatitudes but identified deviations for the tropics. In fact half of the twelve selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models exhibit increases faster than the climatological-mean precipitable water change for high percentiles of tropical daily precipitation, albeit with significant intermodel scatter. Decomposition of the precipitation extreme changes reveals that the variations among models can be attributed primarily to the differences in the upward velocity. Both the amplitude and vertical profile of vertical motion are found to affect precipitation extremes. A recently proposed scaling that incorporates these dynamical effects can capture the basic features of precipitation changes in both the tropics and midlatitudes. In particular, the increases in tropical precipitation extremes significantly exceed the precipitable water change in Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a coupled general circulation model with the highest resolution among IPCC climate models whose precipitation characteristics have been shown to reasonably match those of observations. The expected intensification of tropical disturbances points to the possibility of precipitation extreme increases beyond the moisture content increase as is found in MIROC and some of IPCC models.

  17. Negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increases pain perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osumi, Michihiro; Imai, Ryota; Ueta, Kozo; Nobusako, Satoshi; Morioka, Shu

    2014-01-01

    Changing the visual body appearance by use of as virtual reality system, funny mirror, or binocular glasses has been reported to be helpful in rehabilitation of pain. However, there are interindividual differences in the analgesic effect of changing the visual body image. We hypothesized that a negative body image associated with changing the visual body appearance causes interindividual differences in the analgesic effect although the relationship between the visual body appearance and analgesic effect has not been clarified. We investigated whether a negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increased pain. Twenty-five healthy individuals participated in this study. To evoke a negative body image, we applied the method of rubber hand illusion. We created an "injured rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with pain, a "hairy rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with embarrassment, and a "twisted rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with deviation from the concept of normality. We also created a "normal rubber hand" as a control. The pain threshold was measured while the participant observed the rubber hand using a device that measured pain caused by thermal stimuli. Body ownership experiences were elicited by observation of the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand as well as the normal rubber hand. Participants felt more unpleasantness by observing the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand than the normal rubber hand and twisted rubber hand (ppain threshold was lower under the injured rubber hand condition than with the other conditions (pnegative body appearance associated with pain can increase pain sensitivity.

  18. Negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increases pain perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michihiro Osumi

    Full Text Available Changing the visual body appearance by use of as virtual reality system, funny mirror, or binocular glasses has been reported to be helpful in rehabilitation of pain. However, there are interindividual differences in the analgesic effect of changing the visual body image. We hypothesized that a negative body image associated with changing the visual body appearance causes interindividual differences in the analgesic effect although the relationship between the visual body appearance and analgesic effect has not been clarified. We investigated whether a negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increased pain. Twenty-five healthy individuals participated in this study. To evoke a negative body image, we applied the method of rubber hand illusion. We created an "injured rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with pain, a "hairy rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with embarrassment, and a "twisted rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with deviation from the concept of normality. We also created a "normal rubber hand" as a control. The pain threshold was measured while the participant observed the rubber hand using a device that measured pain caused by thermal stimuli. Body ownership experiences were elicited by observation of the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand as well as the normal rubber hand. Participants felt more unpleasantness by observing the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand than the normal rubber hand and twisted rubber hand (p<0.001. The pain threshold was lower under the injured rubber hand condition than with the other conditions (p<0.001. We conclude that a negative body appearance associated with pain can increase pain sensitivity.

  19. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2017-02-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  20. Operative Risk for Major Lung Resection Increases at Extremes of Body Mass Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Trevor; Gulack, Brian C.; Kim, Sunghee; Fernandez, Felix G.; Ferguson, Mark K.

    2016-01-01

    Background Although body mass index (BMI) has been used in risk stratification for lung resection, many models only take obesity into account. Recent studies have demonstrated that underweight patients also experience increased postoperative complications. We explored the relationship of extremes of BMI to outcomes after lung resection for non-small cell cancer. Methods Patients in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database (2009 to 2014) undergoing elective lung resection for cancer were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders including functional status and spirometry. Results We evaluated 41,446 patients (median 68 years of age; 53% female) grouped by BMI: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2; 3.0%), normal (18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2; 33.5%), overweight (25 to 29.9 kg/m2; 35.4%), obese I (30 to 34.9 kg/m2; 18.1%), obese II (35 to 39.9 kg/m2; 6.4%), and obese III (≥40 kg/m2; 3.6%). Pulmonary complication rates were higher in underweight and obese III patients compared to normal BMI patients (p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, compared to patients with normal BMI, being underweight was associated with an increased risk of pulmonary complications (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16 to 1.70) and any postoperative event (adjusted OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.64). Obese III patients had an increased risk of any major postoperative complication (adjusted OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.36). Overweight and obese class I to II patients had a lower risk of pulmonary complications and any postoperative event. Conclusions BMI is associated with postoperative complications after lung resection for cancer. Being underweight or severely overweight is associated with an increased risk of complications, whereas being overweight or moderately obese appears to have a protective effect. PMID:27476820

  1. Body Image Distortion and Exposure to Extreme Body Types: Contingent Adaptation and Cross Adaptation for Self and Other

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin R. Brooks

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Body size misperception is common amongst the general public and is a core component of eating disorders and related conditions. While perennial media exposure to the thin ideal has been blamed for this misperception, relatively little research has examined visual adaptation as a potential mechanism. We examined the extent to which the bodies of self and other are processed by common or separate mechanisms in young women. Using a contingent adaptation paradigm, experiment 1 gave participants prolonged exposure to images both of the self and of another female that had been distorted in opposite directions (e.g. expanded other/contracted self, and assessed the aftereffects using test images both of the self and other. The directions of the resulting perceptual biases were contingent on the test stimulus, establishing at least some separation between the mechanisms encoding these body types. Experiment 2 used a cross adaptation paradigm to further investigate the extent to which these mechanisms are independent. Participants were adapted either to expanded or to contracted images of their own body or that of another female. While adaptation effects were largest when adapting and testing with the same body type, confirming the separation of mechanisms reported in experiment 1, substantial misperceptions were also demonstrated for cross adaptation conditions, demonstrating a degree of overlap in the encoding of self and other. In addition, the evidence of misperception of one’s own body following exposure to thin and to fat others demonstrates the viability of visual adaptation as a model of body image disturbance both for those who underestimate and those who overestimate their own size.

  2. Body Image Distortion and Exposure to Extreme Body Types: Contingent Adaptation and Cross Adaptation for Self and Other.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Kevin R; Mond, Jonathan M; Stevenson, Richard J; Stephen, Ian D

    2016-01-01

    Body size misperception is common amongst the general public and is a core component of eating disorders and related conditions. While perennial media exposure to the "thin ideal" has been blamed for this misperception, relatively little research has examined visual adaptation as a potential mechanism. We examined the extent to which the bodies of "self" and "other" are processed by common or separate mechanisms in young women. Using a contingent adaptation paradigm, experiment 1 gave participants prolonged exposure to images both of the self and of another female that had been distorted in opposite directions (e.g., expanded other/contracted self), and assessed the aftereffects using test images both of the self and other. The directions of the resulting perceptual biases were contingent on the test stimulus, establishing at least some separation between the mechanisms encoding these body types. Experiment 2 used a cross adaptation paradigm to further investigate the extent to which these mechanisms are independent. Participants were adapted either to expanded or to contracted images of their own body or that of another female. While adaptation effects were largest when adapting and testing with the same body type, confirming the separation of mechanisms reported in experiment 1, substantial misperceptions were also demonstrated for cross adaptation conditions, demonstrating a degree of overlap in the encoding of self and other. In addition, the evidence of misperception of one's own body following exposure to "thin" and to "fat" others demonstrates the viability of visual adaptation as a model of body image disturbance both for those who underestimate and those who overestimate their own size.

  3. Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

    2006-12-01

    Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

  4. Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

    2002-07-15

    Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

  5. The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

    2007-01-01

    Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations shou...

  6. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Guhathakurta; O P Sreejith; P A Menon

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

  7. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity.

  8. Social stress at work and change in women's body weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottwitz, Maria U; Grebner, Simone; Semmer, Norbert K; Tschan, Franziska; Elfering, Achim

    2014-01-01

    Social stressors at work (such as conflict or animosities) imply disrespect or a lack of appreciation and thus a threat to self. Stress induced by this offence to self might result, over time, in a change in body weight. The current study investigated the impact of changing working conditions--specifically social stressors, demands, and control at work--on women's change in weighted Body-Mass-Index over the course of a year. Fifty-seven women in their first year of occupational life participated at baseline and thirty-eight at follow-up. Working conditions were assessed by self-reports and observer-ratings. Body-Mass-Index at baseline and change in Body-Mass-Index one year later were regressed on self-reported social stressors as well as observed work stressors, observed job control, and their interaction. Seen individually, social stressors at work predicted Body-Mass-Index. Moreover, increase in social stressors and decrease of job control during the first year of occupational life predicted increase in Body-Mass-Index. Work redesign that reduces social stressors at work and increases job control could help to prevent obesity epidemic.

  9. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik;

    2013-01-01

    in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated......Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...

  10. Allowable CO2 emissions based on projected changes in regional extremes and related impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus; Pitman, Andy; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted 2°C and 1.5° limits, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions. Translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because they resonate better with national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. Linking cumulative CO2 emission targets to regional consequences, such as changing climate extremes, would be of particular benefit for political decision making, both in the context of climate negotiations and adaptation.

  11. Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics....... This overview focuses mainly on several difficulties and limitations regarding the current methods and discusses various issues and challenges facing the research community in dealing with the climate change impact assessment and adaptation for urban drainage infrastructure design and management....

  12. Body composition analysis by DEXA by using dynamically changing samarium filtration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gotfredsen, Arne; Baeksgaard, L; Hilsted, J

    1997-01-01

    Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) has a high accuracy for body composition analysis but is influenced by beam hardening and other error sources in the extremes of measurement. To compensate for beam hardening, the Norland XR-36 introduces a dynamically changing samarium filtration system, w...... filtration) has a high accuracy for body composition analysis. It has a potential for gaining status as a reference method in the future and may presently be used as a supplement to the traditional methods for body composition analysis.......Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) has a high accuracy for body composition analysis but is influenced by beam hardening and other error sources in the extremes of measurement. To compensate for beam hardening, the Norland XR-36 introduces a dynamically changing samarium filtration system......). Scans of six healthy volunteers covered with combinations of beef and lard (approximately 5-15 kg) showed a good agreement (r = 0.99) between reference and DEXA values of added soft tissue mass and fat percentage. We conclude that the DEXA method (and, in particular, the Norland XR-36 using dynamic...

  13. Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, H.; Lawrence, D.; Lang, M.; Martinkova, M.; Kjeldsen, T. R.

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a review of trend analysis of extreme precipitation and hydrological floods in Europe based on observations and future climate projections. The review summaries methods and methodologies applied and key findings from a large number of studies. Reported analyses of observed extreme precipitation and flood records show that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant trends at large-scale regional or national level of extreme streamflow. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows, likely caused by increasing temperature. The review of likely future changes based on climate projections indicates a general increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trends. Hydrological projections of peak flows show large impacts in many areas with both positive and negative changes. A general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are projected for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows, which is consistent with the observed trends. Finally, existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation are reviewed. The review shows that only few countries have developed guidelines that incorporate a consideration of climate change impacts.

  14. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  15. Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sippel, Sebastian; Forkel, Matthias; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Flach, Milan; Heimann, Martin; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2017-07-01

    Climate extremes have the potential to cause extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, it is neither straightforward to quantify and predict extreme ecosystem responses, nor to attribute these responses to specific climate drivers. Here, we construct a factorial experiment based on a large ensemble of process-oriented ecosystem model simulations driven by a regional climate model (12 500 model years in 1985-2010) in six European regions. Our aims are to (1) attribute changes in the intensity and frequency of simulated ecosystem productivity extremes (EPEs) to recent changes in climate extremes, CO2 concentration, and land use, and to (2) assess the effect of timing and seasonal interaction on the intensity of EPEs. Evaluating the ensemble simulations reveals that (1) recent trends in EPEs are seasonally contrasting: spring EPEs show consistent trends towards increased carbon uptake, while trends in summer EPEs are predominantly negative in net ecosystem productivity (i.e. higher net carbon release under drought and heat in summer) and close-to-neutral in gross productivity. While changes in climate and its extremes (mainly warming) and changes in CO2 increase spring productivity, changes in climate extremes decrease summer productivity neutralizing positive effects of CO2. Furthermore, we find that (2) drought or heat wave induced carbon losses in summer (i.e. negative EPEs) can be partly compensated by a higher uptake in the preceding spring in temperate regions. Conversely, however, carry-over effects from spring to summer that arise from depleted soil moisture exacerbate the carbon losses caused by climate extremes in summer, and are thus undoing spring compensatory effects. While the spring-compensation effect is increasing over time, the carry-over effect shows no trend between 1985-2010. The ensemble ecosystem model simulations provide a process-based interpretation and generalization for spring-summer interacting carbon cycle effects

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on the Climate Extremes of the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, M. Tufan; Collu, Kamil; Deler, F. Busra; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  17. Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akio Kitoh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

  18. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  19. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  20. Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matthews

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

  1. Future changes in atmospheric circulation types and related precipitation extremes in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homann, Markus; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The statistical evaluation of the relationships between atmospheric circulation types and areal precipitation events took place in the context of an international project called WETRAX (Weather patterns, storm tracks and related precipitation extremes). The aim of the project was to estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions. For parts of southern Central Europe, a gridded daily precipitation set with 6km horizontal resolution has been generated for the period 1951-2006 by the Austrian Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG). To determine regions with similar precipitation variability, a S-mode principal component analysis has been applied. Extreme precipitation events are defined by the 95% percentile, based on regional arithmetic means of daily precipitation. Large-scale atmospheric circulation types have been derived by different statistical methods and variables using the COST733 classification software and gridded daily NCEP1 reanalysis data. To evaluate the performance of a particular circulation type classification with respect to regional precipitation extremes, multiple regression models have been derived between the circulation type frequencies as predictor variables and monthly frequencies of extreme precipitation as well as monthly rainfall amounts from these events. To estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions, multiple regression models are applied to different projected GCM predictor data. Thus, future changes in circulation type occurrence frequencies are transferred into assessments of future changes in precipitation extremes on a regional scale.

  2. The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

    2007-01-01

    be given to the destruction of the ability to regulate negative emotions (extreme fear, distress, anguish, anger, rage, shame) in relation to others and activate internal good and empathic object relations. Destruction of the capacity for symbolization of traumatic experience may threaten the mind......, the subject-group dimension, and the subject-discourse dimension. All three dimensions have specific structural characteristics that are expressed in the analytic relation. Extreme trauma causes disturbances in each of these dimensions. The authors present clinical material from a traumatized refugee...

  3. Land cover change drives climate extremes and aridity in non-Amazonian South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, J.; Salazar, A.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Syktus, J.; Katzfey, J.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing evidence is showing the relevance of land cover change on the regional mean climate. However, the mechanisms that explain these interactions remain a challenge in land - atmosphere interactions science. This challenge is particularly significant in understanding the role of vegetation change on climate extremes and aridity, which has been barely addressed by the literature. In this paper we focus on this gap by investigating the effects of land use and land cover change on selected climate extremes indices and aridity in non-Amazonian South America over an area of about 3 million km2. We run a 3 ensemble climate model nudged with the ERA-Interim reanalysis and stretched to 25 km resolution for present (year 2005) land cover relative to realistic historic vegetation distribution. The most important results of this experiment are that the degree of change in vegetation structure determines whether extreme daytime temperatures will increase or decrease, particularly during the dry season. This is because a large change in surface roughness promotes increased wind speeds and heat advection, whereas a small change in surface roughness does not increase wind and can increase heat build-up in the atmosphere since the sensible heat flux also increases. We also put these results in a wider context of land surface - atmospheric feedbacks by looking at the corresponding change in aridity (precipitation / potential evapotranspiration). This shows the processes that drive the changes in temperature extremes also determine whether significant changes in aridity occur, since all the change in aridity can be prescribed to changes in potential evaporation, or atmospheric water demand. We propose a conceptual model of the mechanisms that explain these alterations which is an advance in understanding land-atmosphere interactions and provides evidence of the main mechanisms responsible of changes in the feedbacks because of changes in natural vegetation.

  4. Do changes in body mass index percentile reflect changes in body composition in children? Data from the Fels Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demerath, Ellen W; Schubert, Christine M; Maynard, L Michele; Sun, Shumei S; Chumlea, W Cameron; Pickoff, Arthur; Czerwinski, Stefan A; Towne, Bradford; Siervogel, Roger M

    2006-03-01

    Our aim was to examine the degree to which changes in BMI percentile reflect changes in body fat and lean body mass during childhood and how age and gender affect these relationships. This analysis used serial data on 494 white boys and girls who were aged 8 to 18 years and participating in the Fels Longitudinal Study (total 2319 observations). Total body fat (TBF), total body fat-free mass (FFM), and percentage of body fat (%BF) were determined by hydrodensitometry, and then BMI was partitioned into its fat and fat-free components: fat mass index (FMI) and FFM index (FFMI). We calculated predicted changes (Delta) in FMI, FFMI, and %BF for each 10-unit increase in BMI percentile using mixed-effects models. FFMI had a linear relationship with BMI percentile, whereas FMI and %BF tended to increase dramatically only at higher BMI percentiles. Gender and age had significant effects on the relationship between BMI percentile and FFMI, FMI, and %BF. Predicted Delta%BF for boys 13 to 18 years of age was negative, suggesting loss of relative fatness for each 10-unit increase in BMI percentile. In this longitudinal study of white children, FFMI consistently increased with BMI percentile, whereas FMI and %BF had more complicated relationships with BMI percentile depending on gender, age, and whether BMI percentile was high or low. Our results suggest that BMI percentile changes may not accurately reflect changes in adiposity in children over time, particularly among male adolescents and children of lower BMI.

  5. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  6. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Sunyer, Maria; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2014-05-01

    During the past 30 years rather dramatic changes in extreme precipitation have been observed in Denmark. These changes are mainly in the frequency of extreme events, but there is also a tendency towards more severe events. Both are considered effects of anthropogenic climate change. The increase in precipitation extremes has led to inundations in most of the larger cities during the last 10 years. The flood in Copenhagen in 2011 implied the second highest damage costs measured in Denmark during the last 100 years. To establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods robust projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a changing climate are needed. Additionally, it is equally important to understand the natural variation on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate the changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall. Trends and oscillations are identified in five daily precipitation records from 1874 to present, 83 records from high-resolution rain-gauges from 1979 to present and 18 state-of-the-art climate model simulations. It is shown that the frequency of extreme events in the past has oscillated with a cycle of 25-35 years, a behavior that can in part be explained by sea level pressure differences over the Atlantic. Projections based on the historical observations suggest that precipitation extremes in the Eastern part of Denmark should have been ascending in the last two decades. However, the increase has continued longer than expected and with larger amplitude in the most recent years. This indicates a likely influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With the complex combination of general increase and natural variation several additional years of observation are needed before this hypothesis can be evaluated by statistical means. Extensive analysis of 18 different regional climate model (RCM) simulations shows that anthropogenic

  7. Quantifying the consequences of changing hydroclimatic extremes on protection levels for the Rhine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Hegnauer, Mark; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Lammersen, Rita; van den Boogaard, Henk; Beersma, Jules

    2017-04-01

    The Dutch method for quantifying the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of discharge extremes in the Rhine basin and the potential influence of climate change hereon are presented. In the Netherlands flood protection design requires estimates of discharge extremes for return periods of 1000 up to 100,000 years. Observed discharge records are too short to derive such extreme return discharges, therefore extreme value assessment is based on very long synthetic discharge time-series generated with the Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE). The GRADE instrument consists of (1) a stochastic weather generator based on time series resampling of historical f rainfall and temperature and (2) a hydrological model optimized following the GLUE methodology and (3) a hydrodynamic model to simulate the propagation of flood waves based on the generated hydrological time-series. To assess the potential influence of climate change, the four KNMI'14 climate scenarios are applied. These four scenarios represent a large part of the uncertainty provided by the GCMs used for the IPCC 5th assessment report (the CMIP5 GCM simulations under different climate forcings) and are for this purpose tailored to the Rhine and Meuse river basins. To derive the probability distributions of extreme discharges under climate change the historical synthetic rainfall and temperature series simulated with the weather generator are transformed to the future following the KNMI'14 scenarios. For this transformation the Advanced Delta Change method, which allows that the changes in the extremes differ from those in the means, is used. Subsequently the hydrological model is forced with the historical and future (i.e. transformed) synthetic time-series after which the propagation of the flood waves is simulated with the hydrodynamic model to obtain the extreme discharge statistics both for current and future climate conditions. The study shows that both for 2050 and 2085 increases in discharge

  8. Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.

    2013-01-01

    A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of...... drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future. © IWA Publishing 2013....

  9. Changes in Body Mass Index in Pheochromocytoma Patients Following Adrenalectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyroglou, Ariadni; Adolf, Christian; Hahner, Stefanie; Quinkler, Marcus; Ladurner, Roland; Reincke, Martin; Beuschlein, Felix

    2017-03-01

    Catecholamine excess from pheochromocytoma results in cardiovascular symptoms such as arterial hypertension and tachycardia and induces metabolic alterations including glucose intolerance and increase in resting metabolic rate. The objective of our study was to investigate the effect of surgical cure of pheochromocytoma on body-mass-index and the correlation of body-mass-index changes to preoperative endocrine parameters. Pheochromocytoma patients from the Munich ENSAT Registry were matched (1:2) for age and gender to patients from the German Conn's Registry, who had undergone surgery for aldosterone-producing-adenomas. Thereby, 43 pheochromocytoma patients (17 males/26 females) and 86 aldosterone-producing-adenoma patients were analyzed for body-mass-index, blood pressure, and catecholamine levels before and one year after adrenalectomy. Seventy-four percent of pheochromocytoma patients were hypertensive preoperatively and 48% one year postoperatively. Systolic blood pressure did not differ significantly in pre- and postoperative measurements whereas diastolic blood pressure was significantly reduced over time. Moreover, pheochromocytoma patients gained body weight (ppheochromocytoma patients at baseline to 4 at follow-up. A significant correlation between body-mass-index changes to the preoperative catecholamine levels was found only for urinary normetanephrines. These data suggest that normalization of chronic catecholamine excess by adrenalectomy is associated with an increase in body-mass-index, which is more pronounced in patients with high preoperative levels of urinary normetanephrines. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  10. The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

    2007-01-01

    , the subject-group dimension, and the subject-discourse dimension. All three dimensions have specific structural characteristics that are expressed in the analytic relation. Extreme trauma causes disturbances in each of these dimensions. The authors present clinical material from a traumatized refugee...

  11. Surviving breast cancer: women's experiences with their changed bodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunet, Jennifer; Sabiston, Catherine M; Burke, Shaunna

    2013-06-01

    In this study, we explored women's experiences with their bodies following treatment for breast cancer. Eleven women who had been treated for the disease (M(time since treatment)=4.45 years) were interviewed. Data were collected and analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (Smith et al., 2009). Four main themes emerged from the data: changing visibly and invisibly; experiencing intense thoughts and emotions; meaning of the body: a vehicle of health, well-being, and social expression; and managing and dealing with physical changes. Overall, the women experienced various physical changes that shaped, mostly in a negative way, their perceptions, thoughts, attitudes, feelings, and beliefs about their bodies. The women described attempts to make positive lifestyle behavior choices (e.g., diet, participate in physical activity), and used other strategies (e.g., wigs, make-up, clothes) to manage their appearances and restore positive body-related experiences. Based on these findings, it is important to be cognizant of women's body image concerns following breast cancer given the poignant and lasting effects they can have on their psychosocial and emotional well-being.

  12. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  13. Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2015-01-01

    Changes in extreme precipitation are expected to be one of the most important impacts of climate change in cities. Urban floods are mainly caused by short duration extreme events. Hence, robust information on changes in extreme precipitation at high-temporal resolution is required for the design...... of climate change adaptation measures. However, the quantification of these changes is challenging and subject to numerous uncertainties. This study assesses the changes and uncertainties in extreme precipitation at hourly scale over Denmark. It explores three statistical downscaling approaches: a delta...

  14. Recent variability and trends in UK sub-daily rainfall: evidence for more rapidly changing extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley

    2017-04-01

    Recent UK floods have reinforced the need for a better understanding of how its exposure to flooding may change in the future with climate change. Short-duration intense rainfall is responsible for flash flooding, particularly in fast-responding catchments and urban areas. The new generation of very-high resolution climate models are providing better simulations of such rainfall events but an improved understanding of observed variability and trends in short-duration rainfall is also required. To date this has been confounded by the lack of high quality observations but is being addressed by the INTENSE project which is gathering global datasets of sub-daily rainfall. Methods to quality control such data have been tested to produce a high quality dataset of hourly rainfall for the UK. Here we use this dataset to examine trends and variability in seasonal UK hourly rainfall extremes and compare changes with those on daily timescales. In particular we consider whether we can more readily detect changes in hourly extremes than daily extremes in the observed record. This might be expected given that several studies have provided observational evidence of larger changes in hourly and sub-hourly extremes with temperature. We therefore assess evidence for an amplified response to warming on shorter timescales. Such studies may provide additional evidence that complements that derived from climate models.

  15. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic MOC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-E. Brunnabend

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect of ocean model resolution on these SSH changes: a high-resolution (HR strongly eddying version and a low-resolution (LR version in which the effect of eddies are parameterized. The weakening of the AMOC is induced in both model versions by applying strong freshwater perturbations around Greenland. A rapid decrease of the AMOC in the HR version induces much shorter return times of several specific regional and coastal extremes in North Atlantic SSH than in the LR version. This effect is caused by a change in main eddy pathways associated with a change in separation latitude of the Gulf Stream.

  16. Body Weight changes and Economic Implications of Feeding Uda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Body Weight changes and Economic Implications of Feeding Uda Rams with ... Tullun Gwanki Grazing Reserve was purposively selected because of the ... result in terms of cost of feed/kg live weight gain (962.83N/kg) as compared to rams on ...

  17. Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

  18. Impacts of extreme precipitation and seasonal changes in precipitation on plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. B. Zeppel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological cycle is predicted to become more intense in future climates, with both larger precipitation events and longer times between events. Redistribution of precipitation may occur both within and across seasons, and the resulting wide fluctuations in soil water content may dramatically affect plants. Though these responses remain poorly understood, recent research in this emerging field suggests the effects of redistributed precipitation may differ from predictions based on previous drought studies. We review available studies on both extreme precipitation (redistribution within seasons and seasonal changes in precipitation (redistribution across seasons on grasslands and forests. Extreme precipitation differentially affected Aboveground Net Primary Productivity (ANPP, depending on whether extreme precipitation led to increased or decreased soil water content (SWC, which differed based on the current precipitation at the site. Specifically, studies to date reported that extreme precipitation decreased ANPP in mesic sites, but, conversely, increased ANPP in xeric sites, suggesting that plant available water is a key factor driving responses to extreme precipitation. Similarly, the effects of seasonal changes in precipitation on ANPP, phenology, and leaf and fruit development varied with the effect on SWC. Reductions in spring or summer generally had negative effects on plants, associated with reduced SWC, while subsequent reductions in autumn or winter had little effect on SWC or plants. Similarly, increased summer precipitation had a more dramatic impact on plants than winter increases in precipitation. The patterns of response suggest xeric biomes may respond positively to extreme precipitation, while comparatively mesic biomes may be more likely to be negatively affected. And, seasonal changes in precipitation during warm or dry seasons may have larger effects than changes during cool or wet seasons. Accordingly, responses to

  19. Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

    2017-06-01

    In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

  20. Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnarasi, R.; Dhanya, C. T.

    2016-03-01

    Modeling of extreme events and its dynamic behavior have always been an intriguing topic. Increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events has widely been reported in recent decades, which is attributed to abrupt changes in climate. Numerous studies on extreme Indian monsoon characteristics, using a coarse-resolution data set, have pointed out significant changes in heavy precipitation pattern over India. However, these studies differ in their conclusions, emphasizing the need for a fine-resolution analysis. The present study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and trends in the extreme (wet and dry) Indian monsoon precipitation, using 0.25° × 0.25° high-resolution gridded data for a period of 113 years (1901-2013). Significant increase in the maximum intensity of rainfall and spatial heterogeneity is observed over the past half century. In addition, significant negative trends in wet spell durations and positive trends in dry spell durations are observed over wet regions; whereas contrasting trends are observed over dry regions. A shift in the frequency distribution of extreme events during the monsoon period is also noticed. The 50 year return level of maximum intensity clearly shows positive trends over the past century. Though characteristics of extremes are observed to be highly localized, apparent signs of wet regions turning drier and dry regions turning wetter are obtained. A comprehensive insight into different characteristics (intensity, spell, onset, and frequency) of Indian monsoon extremes is provided, which will help in effective water resources management and flood/drought hazard preparedness.

  1. Climate change and shrinking salamanders: alternative mechanisms for changes in plethodontid salamander body size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connette, Grant M; Crawford, John A; Peterman, William E

    2015-08-01

    An increasing number of studies have demonstrated relationships between climate trends and body size change of organisms. In many cases, climate might be expected to influence body size by altering thermoregulation, energetics or food availability. However, observed body size change can result from a variety of ecological processes (e.g. growth, selection, population dynamics) or imperfect observation of biological systems. We used two extensive datasets to evaluate alternative mechanisms for recently reported changes in the observed body size of plethodontid salamanders. We found that mean adult body size of salamanders can be highly sensitive to survey conditions, particularly rainfall. This systematic bias in the detection of larger or smaller individuals could result in a signature of body size change in relation to reported climate trends when it is simply observation error. We also identify considerable variability in body size distributions among years and find that individual growth rates can be strongly influenced by weather. Finally, our study demonstrates that measures of mean adult body size can be highly variable among surveys and that large sample sizes may be required to make reliable inferences. Identifying the effects of climate change is a critical area of research in ecology and conservation. Researchers should be aware that observed changes in certain organisms can result from multiple ecological processes or systematic bias due to nonrandom sampling of populations.

  2. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  3. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation

  4. Changes in management policies for extremely preterm births and neonatal outcomes from 2003 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonet, Mercedes; Cuttini, M; Piedvache, A

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: to investigate changes in maternity and neonatal unit policies towards extremely preterm infants (EPTI) between 2003 and 2012 and concurrent trends in their mortality and morbidity in ten European regions. DESIGN: population-based cohort studies in 2003 (MOSAIC study) and 2011/12 (EPIC...

  5. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  6. Hypothermia – mechanism of action and pathophysiological changes in the human body

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Sosnowski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This review focuses on the physiological responses and pathophysiological changes induced by hypothermia. Normal body function depends on its ability to maintain thermal homeostasis. The human body can be divided arbitrarily into two thermal compartments: a core compartment (trunk and head, with precisely regulated temperature around 37°C, and a peripheral compartment (skin and extremities with less strictly controlled temperature, and lower than the core temperature. Thermoregulatory processes occur in three phases: afferent thermal sensing, central regulation, mainly by the preoptic area of the anterior hypothalamus, and efferent response. Exposure to cold induces thermoregulatory responses including cutaneous vasoconstriction, shivering and non-shivering thermogenesis, and behavioral changes. Alterations of body temperature associated with impaired thermoregulation, decreased heat production or increased heat loss can lead to hypothermia. Hypothermia is defined as a core body temperature below 35ºC, and may be classified according to the origin as accidental (e.g. caused by exposure to a cold environment, drugs, or illness or intentional (i.e. therapeutic, or by the degree of hypothermia as mild, moderate or severe. Classification by temperature is not universal. Lowering of body temperature disrupts the physiological processes at the molecular, cellular and system level, but hypothermia induced prior to cardiosurgical or neurosurgical procedures, by the decrease in tissue oxygen demand, can reduce the risk of cerebral or cardiac ischemic damage. Therapeutic hypothermia has been recommended as a clinical procedure in situations characterized by ischemia, such as cardiac arrest, stroke and brain injuries.

  7. [Hypothermia--mechanism of action and pathophysiological changes in the human body].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosnowski, Przemysław; Mikrut, Kinga; Krauss, Hanna

    2015-01-16

    This review focuses on the physiological responses and pathophysiological changes induced by hypothermia. Normal body function depends on its ability to maintain thermal homeostasis. The human body can be divided arbitrarily into two thermal compartments: a core compartment (trunk and head), with precisely regulated temperature around 37°C, and a peripheral compartment (skin and extremities) with less strictly controlled temperature, and lower than the core temperature. Thermoregulatory processes occur in three phases: afferent thermal sensing, central regulation, mainly by the preoptic area of the anterior hypothalamus, and efferent response. Exposure to cold induces thermoregulatory responses including cutaneous vasoconstriction, shivering and non-shivering thermogenesis, and behavioral changes. Alterations of body temperature associated with impaired thermoregulation, decreased heat production or increased heat loss can lead to hypothermia. Hypothermia is defined as a core body temperature below 35ºC, and may be classified according to the origin as accidental (e.g. caused by exposure to a cold environment, drugs, or illness) or intentional (i.e. therapeutic), or by the degree of hypothermia as mild, moderate or severe. Classification by temperature is not universal. Lowering of body temperature disrupts the physiological processes at the molecular, cellular and system level, but hypothermia induced prior to cardiosurgical or neurosurgical procedures, by the decrease in tissue oxygen demand, can reduce the risk of cerebral or cardiac ischemic damage. Therapeutic hypothermia has been recommended as a clinical procedure in situations characterized by ischemia, such as cardiac arrest, stroke and brain injuries.

  8. A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches.

  9. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  10. Weight change and lower body disability in older Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Snih, Soham; Raji, Mukaila A; Markides, Kyriakos S; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J; Goodwin, James S

    2005-10-01

    To examine the association between 2-year weight change and onset of lower body disability over time in older Mexican Americans. Data were from the Hispanic Established Population for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly (1993-2001). Weight change was examined by comparing baseline weight to weight at 2-year follow-up. Incidence of lower body disability was studied from the end of this period through an additional 5 years. Five southwestern states: Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and California. One thousand seven hundred thirty-seven noninstitutionalized Mexican-American men and women aged 65 and older who reported no limitation in activities of daily living (ADLs) and were able to perform the walk test at 2-year follow-up. In-home interviews assessed sociodemographic factors, self-reported physician diagnoses of medical conditions (arthritis, diabetes mellitus, heart attack, stroke, hip fracture, and cancer), self-reported ADLs, depressive symptoms, and number of hospitalizations. Cognitive function, handgrip muscle strength, and body mass index (BMI) were obtained. The outcomes were any limitation of lower body ADL (walking across a small room, bathing, transferring from a bed to a chair, and using the toilet) and limitation on the walk test over subsequent 5-year follow-up period. General Estimation Equation (GEE) was used to estimate lower body disability over time. Weight change of 5% or more occurred in 42.3% of the participants; 21.7% lost weight, 20.6% gained weight, and 57.7% had stable weight. Using GEE analysis, with stable weight as the reference, weight loss of 5% or more was associated with greater risk of any lower body ADL limitation (odds ratio (OR)=1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.06-1.95) and walking limitation (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.03-1.76) after controlling for sociodemographic variables and BMI at baseline. Weight gain of 5% or more was associated with greater risk of any lower body ADL limitation (OR=1.39, 95% CI=1.02-1.89), after

  11. Longitudinal changes in body composition in older men and women: role of body weight change and physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Virginia A; Frontera, Walter R; Roubenoff, Ronenn; Evans, William J; Singh, Maria A Fiatarone

    2002-08-01

    Estimates of body-composition change in older adults are mostly derived from cross-sectional data. We examined the natural longitudinal patterns of change in fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) in older adults and explored the effect of physical activity, weight change, and age on these changes. The body composition measured by hydrodensitometry and the level of sports and recreational activity (SRA) of 53 men and 78 women with a mean (+/-SD) initial age of 60.7 +/- 7.8 y were examined on 2 occasions separated by a mean (+/-SD) time of 9.4 +/- 1.4 y. FFM decreased in men (2.0% per decade) but not in women, whereas FM increased similarly in both sexes (7.5% per decade). Levels of SRA decreased more in men than in women over the follow-up period. Baseline age and level of SRA were inversely and independently associated with changes in FM in women only. Neither age nor level of SRA was associated with changes in FFM in men or women. Weight-stable subjects lost FFM. FFM accounted for 19% of body weight in those who gained weight, even in the presence of decreased levels of SRA. Loss of FFM (33% of body weight) was pronounced in those who lost weight, despite median SRA levels >4184 kJ/wk. On average, FM increased; however, the increase in women was attenuated with advancing age. The decrease in FFM over the follow-up period was small and masked the wide interindividual variation that was dependent on the magnitude of weight change. The contribution of weight stability, modest weight gains, or lifestyle changes that include regular resistance exercise in attenuating lean-tissue loss with age should be explored.

  12. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  13. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-07

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  14. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  15. Binary black hole coalescence in the extreme-mass-ratio limit: testing and improving the effective-one-body multipolar waveform

    CERN Document Server

    Bernuzzi, Sebastiano; Zenginoglu, Anil

    2010-01-01

    We discuss the properties of the effective-one-body (EOB) multipolar gravitational waveform emitted by nonspinning black-hole binaries of masses $\\mu$ and $M$ in the extreme-mass-ratio limit, $\\mu/M=\

  16. Seasonal change in body fat of the Hyrax Procavia capensis (Pallas, 1766 using a body fat ranking index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.J. Fourie

    1985-12-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the body fat content of the hyrax Procavia capensis were used as an indicator of physiological condition. Body fat rankings for the different sexes showed seasonal variations related to physiologically stressful periods (rutting, gestation and lactation. The subjective body fat rankings were correlated significantly with total body fat.

  17. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  18. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  19. The change in body stressed to relaxed body through breathing, visualization and a protective environment together

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn I. Rodríguez Morrill

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This work shows several ways to meet and relax the body through personal knowledge and techniques encounter with nature. Modern life and fast, the constant pressure from childhood to adulthood, in the modes of interaction between individuals and groups, they lead to construction of bodies that reflect emotional anatomy visible loss of balance, contractures, inflammation, multiple imbalances by lack of knowledge and awareness especially being in the world fully, the person has moved away from its ecological relationship with itself and the environment. Methods are shown to positively change a condition of constant stress and chronic discomfort, a learned condition of physical and psychological wellbeing, with a series of movements, recovering the body through exercise, to tend to personal balance, obtaining a positive relationship with the environment and the people attended. The proposal starts promoting new habits that can be saved in consciousness. Partly, mainly of breath, alignment with the music and the environment and personal and group work

  20. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    2014-01-01

    and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a changing climate are needed. Additionally, it is equally important to understand the natural variation on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate the changes and uncertainties in Danish...... with a cycle of 25-35 years, a behavior that can in part be explained by sea level pressure differences over the Atlantic. Projections based on the historical observations suggest that precipitation extremes in the Eastern part of Denmark should have been ascending in the last two decades. However...... are discussed. Accounting for the uncertainty introduced by these factors a 10-year event is expected to increase by 30% over a projection period of 100 years. This is less than the variation within one natural oscillation cycle, indicating that it is crucial to understand and account for the future multi...

  1. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  2. Response of Groundwater to Climate Change under Extreme Climate Conditions in North China Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying Zhang; Jincui Wang; Jihong Jing; Jichao Sun

    2014-01-01

    The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the water shortage areas of China. Lack of water resources restricted the economic and social development of North China area and resulted in deterio-ration of ecosystem and natural environment. Influenced by the climate change and human activities, the water circulation of NCP was largely changed and the crisis of water resources was aggravated. Therefore, it is important to study the features of the extreme climate and the response mechanism of groundwater to climate change. We analyzed the trend of climate change and extreme climate features in the past 60 years based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations. And then the response characteristics of groundwater to climate change were discussed. The average temperature of NCP was in an obviously upward trend. The overall precipitation variation was in a downward trend. The cli-mate change in this area showed a warming-drying trend. The intensity of extreme precipitation dis-played a trend of declining and then increasing from north to south as well as declining from eastern coastal plain to the piedmont plain. Grey correlation degree analysis indicated that groundwater depth had a close relationship with precipitation and human activities in NCP. The response of groundwater level to precipitation differed from the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain to the coastal plain. The response was more obvious in the coastal plain than the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain and the middle plain. The precipitation influenced the groundwater depth both directly and indirectly. Under the condition of extreme precipitation, the impact would aggravate, in the forms of rapid or lag raise of groundwater levels.

  3. Impact of Early Nutrition on Body Composition in Children Aged 9.5 Years Born with Extremely Low Birth Weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Stutte

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate body composition, metabolism and growth as well as their interaction with early nutrition in former extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW, we assessed qualitative and quantitative nutritional intake during initial hospitalization and infantile growth parameters in 61 former ELBW infants with a birth weight <1000 g. In two follow-up exams, physical and biochemical development were measured at 5.7 and at 9.5 years. At the second follow-up, in addition to biochemical reassessment, body composition was analyzed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA. Protein intake between birth and discharge was associated with weight gain in the first six months of life (r = 0.51; p < 0.01. Weight catch-up preceded height catch-up. Protein intake in early infancy correlated highly significantly with abdominal fat mass (r = 0.49; p < 0.05, but not with lean body mass at 9.5 years (r = 0.30; not significant (n.s.. In contrast to nutrient intake, birth weight was associated with lean body mass (r = 0.433; p < 0.001. Early protein and carbohydrate intake were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL-cholesterol, and early catch-up growth correlated with fasting insulin at follow-up. Stepwise linear regression demonstrated that protein intake predicted fat mass (p < 0.05, whereas only gender and birth weight standard deviation score (SDS contributed significantly to lean body mass variation (p < 0.05. Our results suggest an important impact of early nutrient intake on body composition and metabolism in later childhood in ELBW children.

  4. Impact of Early Nutrition on Body Composition in Children Aged 9.5 Years Born with Extremely Low Birth Weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutte, Sonja; Gohlke, Bettina; Peiler, Annika; Schreiner, Felix; Born, Mark; Bartmann, Peter; Woelfle, Joachim

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate body composition, metabolism and growth as well as their interaction with early nutrition in former extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW), we assessed qualitative and quantitative nutritional intake during initial hospitalization and infantile growth parameters in 61 former ELBW infants with a birth weight <1000 g. In two follow-up exams, physical and biochemical development were measured at 5.7 and at 9.5 years. At the second follow-up, in addition to biochemical reassessment, body composition was analyzed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Protein intake between birth and discharge was associated with weight gain in the first six months of life (r = 0.51; p < 0.01). Weight catch-up preceded height catch-up. Protein intake in early infancy correlated highly significantly with abdominal fat mass (r = 0.49; p < 0.05), but not with lean body mass at 9.5 years (r = 0.30; not significant (n.s.). In contrast to nutrient intake, birth weight was associated with lean body mass (r = 0.433; p < 0.001). Early protein and carbohydrate intake were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and early catch-up growth correlated with fasting insulin at follow-up. Stepwise linear regression demonstrated that protein intake predicted fat mass (p < 0.05), whereas only gender and birth weight standard deviation score (SDS) contributed significantly to lean body mass variation (p < 0.05). Our results suggest an important impact of early nutrient intake on body composition and metabolism in later childhood in ELBW children. PMID:28208596

  5. Body weight and beauty: the changing face of the ideal female body weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafini, B A; Pozzilli, P

    2011-01-01

    By observing the art of different eras, as well as the more recent existence of the media, it is obvious that there have been dramatic changes in what is considered a beautiful body. The ideal of female beauty has shifted from a symbol of fertility to one of mathematically calculated proportions. It has taken the form of an image responding to men's sexual desires. Nowadays there seems to be a tendency towards the destruction of the feminine, as androgynous fashion and appearance dominate our culture. The metamorphosis of the ideal woman follows the shifting role of women in society from mother and mistress to a career-orientated individual. Her depiction by artists across the centuries reveals this change in role and appearance that should be interpreted within the social and historical context of each era with its own theories of what constituted the ideal female body weight.

  6. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmud

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

    Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate change caused increased

  7. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adelie penguins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélie Lescroël

    Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  8. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  9. Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

  10. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

  11. Changes in the body posture of women occurring with age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzał-Grabiec, Justyna; Snela, Sławomir; Rykała, Justyna; Podgórska, Justyna; Banaś, Agnieszka

    2013-10-12

    A current topic in the field of geriatrics still needing a great deal of study is the changes in body posture occurring with age. Symptoms of these changes can be observed starting between the ages of 40-50 years with a slow progression that increases after 60 years of age. The aims of this study were to evaluate parameters characterizing the posture of women over the age of 60 years compared with a control group and to determine the dynamics of body posture changes in the following decades. The study included 260 randomly selected women. The study group consisted of 130 women between the ages of 60-90 years (Older Women). The control group (Younger Women) consisted of 130 women between the ages of 20-25 years (posture stabilization period). The photogrammetric method was used to evaluate body posture using the phenomenon of the projection chamber. The study was conducted according to generally accepted principles. In the analysis of parameters characterizing individual slope curves, results were varied among different age groups. The lumbar spine slope did not show significant differences between different age groups (p = 0.6952), while statistically significant differences (p = 0.0000) were found in the thoracic-lumbar spine slope (p = 0.0033) and upper thoracic spine slope. Body angle was shown to increase with age (p = 0.0000). Thoracic kyphosis depth significantly deepened with age (p = 0.0002), however, the thoracic kyphosis angle decreased with age (p = 0.0000). An increase in asymmetries was noticed, provided by a significantly higher angle of the shoulder line (p = 0.0199) and the difference in height of the lower shoulder blade angle (p = 0.0007) measurements in the group of older women. Changes in the parameters describing body posture throughout consecutive decades were observed. Therapy for women over the age of 60 years should involve strengthening of the erector spinae muscles and controlling body posture with the aim of reducing trunk inclination

  12. Change in body weight and body image in young adults: a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintem, Gicele Costa; Gigante, Denise Petrucci; Horta, Bernardo Lessa

    2015-03-06

    The goal of this study was to identify the effect of the change in body mass index (BMI) from childhood to adulthood on body image satisfaction at 23 years of age in members of the 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Pelotas, RS, Brazil. The study used data from the 1986 and 2004-5 follow-up studies. Body shape satisfaction was evaluated using the Stunkard scale. Body shape dissatisfaction was defined as the difference between the figures chosen for the current and ideal body size. BMI z-score changes were calculated as the difference between z-score values at 4 and 23 years of age, using the population internal z-score as standard. The analysis was stratified by sex, and multinomial logistic regression was used in crude and adjusted analyses. A total of 1963 men and 1739 women were analyzed. The mean age of the participants in 2004-5 was 22.7 years. Of the participants exhibiting increased BMI z-scores, 17% perceived themselves as thinner than ideal, whereas 48% perceived themselves as fatter than ideal. The prevalence of dissatisfaction was higher in women because they perceived themselves as fatter than ideal on the three categories of z-score change (≥ + 0.5 sd; -0.49 to + 0.49 sd and ≤ -0.5 sd); 81% of women exhibiting an increased BMI z-score reported dissatisfaction. The analysis adjusted for confounding factors revealed that women with increased BMI z-scores were less prone to feel thinner than ideal. Additionally, the increased risk of dissatisfaction due to perceiving oneself as fatter than ideal was similar between men and women (RRR = 3.52 95% CI: 2.17 to 4.56 and RRR = 4.08 95% CI: 3.00 to 5.56, respectively) using -0.49 to +0.49 sd as the reference category. Individuals exhibiting increased BMI z-scores between 4 and 23 years of age reported higher risks of body dissatisfaction at 23 years of age. This finding is important because body dissatisfaction can cause psychological, social, self-esteem problems, and well-being.

  13. Characteristics of extreme climate sequences over Korea using a regional climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eun-Soon, I.; Kwon, W.T. [KMA, Seoul (Korea). Climate Research Lab.

    2007-07-01

    The authors investigate the characteristics and potential future change of extreme climate phenomena based on daily statistical properties. To assess the fine-scale climate change projection over Korea, an ECHO-G B2 scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using the RegCM3 nesting system. Two sets of multidecadal simulations are performed for the present day (1971.2000) and future climate (2021.2050). They analyze four categories of weather spells in terms of the sequences of dry/wet and frost/hot days from the nested domain simulation of 20 km grid spacing. In the validation of the reference scenario, the model shows a reasonable performance of reproducing both observed climatological and distinct characteristics of each spell. Regarding the projected extreme climate events, the results indicate not only a significant change in frequency and intensity, but also substantial change in the fine scale detail of the regional distribution of temperature-based as well as precipitation-based extreme events. A substantial increase of hot spells is found along with increasing of maximum temperature. Longer-period frost spells are projected to decrease, whereas relatively short-period frost spells are likely to increase due to breaks of long spells by greenhouse warming. Wet spells of long periods tend to be more frequent, showing a distinct variation across regions. A recent study using the outputs of the IPCC AR4 coupled climate models also reports a significant increase of summer monsoon precipitation and a possible increase in the length of the summer monsoon period over East Asia in particular over Korea (Kripalani et al. 2006). Hence it is important to quantify the influence of greenhouse-gas-induced climate change upon the frequency and intensity of extreme events at regional scale.

  14. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

  15. Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Joong-Bae; Jo, Sera; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Shim, Kyo-Moon

    2016-05-01

    The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.

  16. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan

    Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model projecti......Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model...... considered. Urban flooding in Aarhus was simulated with a model that dynamically couples a hydraulic model of the drainage system and a 2D overland flow model. Scenarios representing current and future climate including uncertainties in the climate projections were analysed using synthetic design storms...

  17. Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-09-01

    The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

  18. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in Shaanxi province under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Rengui; Xie, Jiancang; Zhao, Yong; He, Hailong; He, Guohua

    2016-09-01

    Extreme climate index is one of the useful tools to monitor and detect climate change. The primary objective of this study is to provide a more comprehensively the changes in extreme precipitation between the periods of 1954-1983 and 1984-2013 in Shaanxi province under climate change, which will hopefully provide a scientific understanding of the precipitation-related natural hazards such as flood and drought. Daily precipitation from 34 surface meteorological stations were used to calculated 13 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) generated by the joint World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (CCI)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) project on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) expect Team on climate change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Two periods including 1954-1983 and 1984-2013 were selected and five types of precipitation days (R10mm-R100mm) were defined, to provide more evidences of climate change impacts on the extreme precipitation events, and specially, to investigate the changes in different types of precipitation days. The EPIs were generated using RClimRex software, and the trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and Sen's slope estimator. The relationships between the EPIs and the impacts of climate anomalies on typical EPIs were investigated using correlation and composite analysis. The mainly results include: 1) Thirteen EPIs, except consecutive dry day (CDD), were positive trends dominated for the period of 1984-2013, but the trends were not obvious for the period of 1954-1983. Most of the trends were not statistically significant at 5 % significance level. 2) The spatial distributions of stations that exhibited positive and negative trends were scattered. However, the stations that had negative trends mainly distributed in the north of Shaanxi province, and the stations that had positive trends mainly located in the south. 3) The percentage of stations that had positive

  19. Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-10-01

    The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

  20. Effects of body size and change in body size from infancy through childhood on body mass index in adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Lise G; Rasmussen, K M; Michaelsen, Kim F.

    2014-01-01

    Background:Weight and weight gain throughout infancy are related to later obesity, but whether the strength of the associations varies during the infancy period is uncertain.Aims:Our aims were to identify the period of infancy when change in body weight has the strongest association with adult body...... mass index (BMI) and also the extent to which these associations during infancy are mediated through childhood BMI.Methods:The Copenhagen Perinatal Cohort, in which participants were followed from birth through 42 years of age, provided information on weight at 12 months and BMI at 42 years for 1633...... of Obesity advance online publication, 15 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.108....

  1. NPCs Vote! Changing Voter Reactions Over Time Using the Extreme AI Personality Engine

    OpenAIRE

    Georgeson, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    Can non-player characters have human-realistic personalities, changing over time depending on input from those around them? And can they have different reactions and thoughts about different people? Using Extreme AI, a psychology-based personality engine using the Five Factor model of personality, I answer these questions by creating personalities for 100 voters and allowing them to react to two politicians to see if the NPC voters' choice of candidate develops in a realistic-seeming way, bas...

  2. Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

  3. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  4. Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, Renata J.; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Debele, Sisay E.; Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Hisdal, Hege; Lawrence, Deborah; Meresa, Hadush K.; Napiórkowski, Jarosław J.; Osuch, Marzena; Strupczewski, Witold G.; Wilson, Donna; Wong, Wai Kwok

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish-Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight "twinned" catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021-2050) and the far-future (2071-2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.

  5. An ensemble study of extreme North Sea storm surges in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like the Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. We find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  6. Evaluation of Haemodynamic Changes of Proximal Arterial Occlusion in the Lower Extremities by Spectrum Doppler Ultrasonography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The objective is to analyse the changes of haemodynamic and Doppler ultrasonography spectrum in the proximal arterial occlusion of lower extremities, and to explore the value of spectrum Doppler ultrasonography in the diagnosis of lower extremity arterial occlusive disease. Methods: Thirty-four patients (thirty-nine occlusion arteries were examined with two-dimensional ultrasound combined with colour Doppler flow imaging (CDFI, and the results were compared. Result: The waveform shape in the artery proximal to the occlusion shows that blood flow velocity becomes slower, and diastolic reverse wave slowly disappears even upward. Systolic waveform records a steep upstroke, a slow downstroke and a shoulder on the downstroke. The appearance of the shoulder on the downstroke is earlier than the diastolic upward wave. The differences of peak systolic velocity, acceleration time, deceleration time, systolic acceleration, deceleration, diastolic reverse flow velocity, systolic acceleration time/systolic duration and systolic deceleration time/systolic duration in the proximal occlusion segment compared with the control group are statistically significant (p < 0.05. Conclusion: Artery occlusion can lead to haemodynamic response and spectrum waveform change. Timely discovery of the changes of the spectrum can be of clinical significance in the diagnosis of lower extremity arterial occlusive disease.

  7. Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Deepti; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2014-06-01

    The South Asian summer monsoon directly affects the lives of more than 1/6th of the world's population. There is substantial variability within the monsoon season, including fluctuations between periods of heavy rainfall (wet spells) and low rainfall (dry spells). These fluctuations can cause extreme wet and dry regional conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure and human systems. Through a comprehensive statistical analysis of precipitation observations (1951-2011), we show that statistically significant decreases in peak-season precipitation over the core-monsoon region have co-occurred with statistically significant increases in daily-scale precipitation variability. Further, we find statistically significant increases in the frequency of dry spells and intensity of wet spells, and statistically significant decreases in the intensity of dry spells. These changes in extreme wet and dry spell characteristics are supported by increases in convective available potential energy and low-level moisture convergence, along with changes to the large-scale circulation aloft in the atmosphere. The observed changes in wet and dry extremes during the monsoon season are relevant for managing climate-related risks, with particular relevance for water resources, agriculture, disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning.

  8. Extreme Mountain Ultra-Marathon Leads to Acute but Transient Increase in Cerebral Water Diffusivity and Plasma Biomarkers Levels Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchi, Davide; Viallon, Magalie; Le Goff, Caroline; Millet, Grégoire P.; Giardini, Guido; Croisille, Pierre; Haller, Sven

    2017-01-01

    to the blood brain barrier, the results concerning osmolality suggest that body water might directly influence the change in cerebral ADC. These findings establish therefore a direct link between general brain inter-cellular water content and physiological biomarkers modifications produced by extreme sport. PMID:28105018

  9. Reprogramming the body weight set point by a reciprocal interaction of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc gene expression reverts extreme obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chhabra, Kavaljit H; Adams, Jessica M; Jones, Graham L; Yamashita, Miho; Schlapschy, Martin; Skerra, Arne; Rubinstein, Marcelo; Low, Malcolm J

    2016-10-01

    A major challenge for obesity treatment is the maintenance of reduced body weight. Diet-induced obese mice are resistant to achieving normoweight once the obesogenic conditions are reversed, in part because lowered circulating leptin leads to a reduction in metabolic rate and a rebound of hyperphagia that defend the previously elevated body weight set point. Because hypothalamic POMC is a central leptin target, we investigated whether changes in circulating leptin modify Pomc expression to maintain normal energy balance in genetically predisposed obese mice. Mice with reversible Pomc silencing in the arcuate nucleus (ArcPomc (-/-)) become morbidly obese eating low-fat chow. We measured body composition, food intake, plasma leptin, and leptin sensitivity in ArcPomc (-/-) mice weight-matched to littermate controls by calorie restriction, either from weaning or after developing obesity. Pomc was reactivated by tamoxifen-dependent Cre recombinase transgenes. Long acting PASylated leptin was administered to weight-reduced ArcPomc (-/-) mice to mimic the super-elevated leptin levels of obese mice. ArcPomc (-/-) mice had increased adiposity and leptin levels shortly after weaning. Despite chronic calorie restriction to achieve normoweight, ArcPomc (-/-) mice remained moderately hyperleptinemic and resistant to exogenous leptin's effects to reduce weight and food intake. However, subsequent Pomc reactivation in weight-matched ArcPomc (-/-) mice normalized plasma leptin, leptin sensitivity, adiposity, and food intake. In contrast, extreme hyperleptinemia induced by PASylated leptin blocked the full restoration of hypothalamic Pomc expression in calorie restricted ArcPomc (-/-) mice, which consequently regained 30% of their lost body weight and attained a metabolic steady state similar to that of tamoxifen treated obese ArcPomc (-/-) mice. Pomc reactivation in previously obese, calorie-restricted ArcPomc (-/-) mice normalized energy homeostasis, suggesting that their body

  10. Extremes in body mass index affect overall survival in women with cervical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Leslie H; Jackson, Amanda L; Soo, Adrianne E; Orrey, Danielle C; Gehrig, Paola A; Kim, Kenneth H

    2016-06-01

    To examine the effect of BMI on pathologic findings, cancer recurrence and survival in cervical cancer patients. A retrospective cohort study of cervical cancer patients treated from July 2000 to March 2013 was performed. BMI was calculated, and patients were classified by BMI. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included stage, histopathology, disease-specific survival (DSS) and recurrence free survival (RFS). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated and compared using Cox proportional hazard ratios. Of 632 eligible patients, 24 (4%) were underweight, 191 (30%) were normal weight, 417 (66%) were overweight/obese. There was no difference in age (p=0.91), stage at presentation (p=0.91), grade (p=0.46), or histology (p=0.76) between weight categories. There were fewer White patients in the underweight (54%) and overweight/obese (58%) groups compared to the normal weight (71%) group (p=0.04). After controlling for prognostic factors, underweight and overweight/obese patients had worse median RFS than normal weight patients (7.6 v 25.0months, p=0.01 and 20.3 v 25.0months, p=0.03). Underweight patients also had worse OS (10.4 v 28.4months, p=0.031) and DSS (13.8 v 28.4months, p=0.04) compared to normal weight patients. Overweight/obese patients had worse OS than normal weight patients (22.2 v 28.4months, p=0.03) and a trend toward worse DSS (21.9 v 28.4months, p=0.09). Both extremes of weight (underweight and overweight/obesity) were associated with worse survival in patients with cervical cancer. Optimizing weight in cervical cancer patients may improve outcomes in these patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørland, Silje Lund; Sorteberg, Asgeir

    2016-07-01

    Extreme rainfall events in the central Indian region are often related to the passage of synoptic scale monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS). This study uses the surrogate climate change method on ten monsoon LPS cases connected to observed extreme rainfall events, to investigate how sensitive the precipitation and runoff are to an idealized warmer and moister atmosphere. The ten cases are simulated with three different initial and lateral boundary conditions: the unperturbed control run, and two sets of perturbed runs where the atmospheric temperature is increased uniformly throughout the atmosphere, the specific humidity increased according to Clausius Clapeyron's relation, but the large-scale flow is unchanged. The difference between the control and perturbed simulations are mainly due to the imposed warming and feedback influencing the synoptic flow. The mean precipitation change with warming in the central Indian region is 18-20 %/K, with largest changes at the end of the LPS tracks. The LPS in the warmer runs are bringing more moisture further inland that is released as precipitation. In the perturbed runs the precipitation rate is increasing at all percentiles, and there is more frequent rainfall with very heavy intensities. This leads to a shift in which category that contributes most to the total precipitation: more of the precipitation is coming from the category with very heavy intensities. The runoff changes are similar to the precipitation changes, except the response in intensity of very heavy runoff, which is around twice the change in intensity of very heavy precipitation.

  12. Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kidmose

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a first attempt to estimate future groundwater levels by applying extreme value statistics on predictions from a hydrological model. Climate for the future period, 2081–2100, are represented by projections from nine combinations of three global climate models and six regional climate models, and downscaled with two different methods. An integrated surface water/groundwater model is forced with precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration from the 18 model – and downscaling combinations. Extreme value analyses are performed on the hydraulic head changes from a control period (1991–2010 to the future period for the 18 combinations. Hydraulic heads for return periods of 21, 50 and 100 yr (T21–100 are estimated. Three uncertainty sources are evaluated; climate models, downscaling and extreme value statistics. Of these sources, downscaling dominates for the higher return periods of 50 and 100 yr, whereas uncertainty from climate models and downscaling are similar for lower return periods. Uncertainty from the extreme value statistics only contribute up to around 10% of the uncertainty from the three sources.

  13. Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Jaedicke

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing

  14. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future.......Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...

  15. Lower-limb amputation and body weight changes in men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alyson J. Littman, PhD

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Little is known about the relationship between lower-limb amputation (LLA and subsequent changes in body weight. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using clinical and administrative databases to identify and follow weight changes in 759 males with amputation (partial foot amputation [PFA], n = 396; transtibial amputation [TTA], n = 267; and transfemoral amputation [TFA], n = 96 and 3,790 men without amputation frequency-matched (5:1 on age, body mass index, diabetes, and calendar year from eight Department of Veterans Affairs medical care facilities in the Pacific Northwest. We estimated and compared longitudinal percent weight change from baseline up to 39 mo of follow-up in men with and without amputation. Weight gain in the 2 yr after amputation was significantly more in men with an amputation than without, and in men with a TTA or TFA (8%–9% increase than in men with a PFA (3%–6% increase. Generally, percent weight gain peaked at 2 yr and was followed by some weight loss in the third year. These findings indicate that LLA is often followed by clinically important weight gain. Future studies are needed to better understand the reasons for weight gain and to identify intervention strategies to prevent excess weight gain and the deleterious consequences that may ensue.

  16. Lower-limb amputation and body weight changes in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littman, Alyson J; Thompson, Mary Lou; Arterburn, David E; Bouldin, Erin; Haselkorn, Jodie K; Sangeorzan, Bruce J; Boyko, Edward J

    2015-01-01

    Little is known about the relationship between lower-limb amputation (LLA) and subsequent changes in body weight. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using clinical and administrative databases to identify and follow weight changes in 759 males with amputation (partial foot amputation [PFA], n = 396; transtibial amputation [TTA], n = 267; and transfemoral amputation [TFA], n = 96) and 3,790 nondisabled persons frequency-matched (5:1) on age, body mass index, diabetes, and calendar year from eight Department of Veterans Affairs medical care facilities in the Pacific Northwest. We estimated and compared longitudinal percent weight change from baseline during up to 39 mo of follow-up in participants with and without amputation. Weight gain in the 2 yr after amputation was significantly more in men with an amputation than without, and in men with a TTA or TFA (8%-9% increase) than in men with a PFA (3%-6% increase). Generally, percent weight gain peaked at 2 yr and was followed by some weight loss in the third year. These findings indicate that LLA is often followed by clinically important weight gain. Future studies are needed to better understand the reasons for weight gain and to identify intervention strategies to prevent excess weight gain and the deleterious consequences that may ensue.

  17. Parental motivation to change body weight in young overweight children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rachael W; Williams, Sheila M; Dawson, Anna M; Haszard, Jillian J; Brown, Deirdre A

    2015-07-01

    To determine what factors are associated with parental motivation to change body weight in overweight children. Cross-sectional study. Dunedin, New Zealand. Two hundred and seventy-one children aged 4-8 years, recruited in primary and secondary care, were identified as overweight (BMI ≥ 85th percentile) after screening. Parents completed questionnaires on demographics; motivation to improve diet, physical activity and weight; perception and concern about weight; parenting; and social desirability, prior to being informed that their child was overweight. Additional measures of physical activity (accelerometry), dietary intake and child behaviour (questionnaire) were obtained after feedback. Although all children were overweight, only 42% of parents perceived their child to be so, with 36% indicating any concern. Very few parents (n 25, 8%) were actively trying to change the child's weight. Greater motivation to change weight was observed for girls compared with boys (P = 0.001), despite no sex difference in BMI Z-score (P = 0.374). Motivation was not associated with most demographic variables, social desirability, dietary intake, parenting or child behaviour. Increased motivation to change the child's weight was observed for heavier children (P motivation to change overweight in young children highlight the urgent need to determine how best to improve motivation to initiate change.

  18. Changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes in the Carpathians since AD 1961

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Magdalena Micu, Dana; Cheval, Sorin

    2014-05-01

    The Carpathians are the largest, longest, most twisted and fragmented segment of the Alpine system, stretching between latitudes 44°N and 50°N, and longitudes 17°E and 27°E. This European mountain range is a climatically transitional region between major atmospheric circulation source areas of the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and continental Europe. The region is a European biodiversity hotspot, containing over one third of all European plant species. It is acknowledged that the mountain regions are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change than any other regions located at the same latitudes. Observational studies on the variability and trends of extreme events suggest an overall consensus towards a significant increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of warm extremes in most of these regions, including the Carpathians. 15 core indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), were computed in order to investigate the changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes, based on their known relevance for the infrastructure, human health and tourism activities in these mountains. The indices were computed from gridded daily datasets of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation at 0.1° resolution (~10 km), available online within the framework of the project CarpatClim (www.carpatclim-eu.org) for the period 1961-2010. Changes in the annual temperature and precipitation extremes in the last five decades have been identified with the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test, at the 90% significance level (two-tail test). The results show decreasing trends in cold-related thermal indices, especially in the number of frost days, and increasing trends in warm-related ones. No consistent trend in precipitation extremes has been found. There is a generally uniform signal of significant increasing trends in the frequency of summer days across the Carpathians, with no obvious differences between

  19. Vibration transmission to lower extremity soft tissues during whole-body vibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friesenbichler, Bernd; Lienhard, Karin; Vienneau, Jordyn; Nigg, Benno M

    2014-09-22

    In order to evaluate potential risks of whole-body vibration (WBV) training, it is important to understand the transfer of vibrations from the WBV platform to the muscles. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to quantify the transmissibility of vibrations from the WBV platform to the triceps surae and quadriceps soft tissue compartments. Sixteen healthy, male participants were exposed to side-altering WBV at 2.5mm amplitude and frequencies of 10, 17 and 28 Hz. Acceleration signals were measured at the platform and at the soft tissue compartments using tri-axial accelerometers. Transmissibility of peak acceleration and peak amplitude for both tested soft tissue compartments was high at 10 Hz (2.1-2.3), moderate at 17 Hz (1.1-1.9) and low at 28 Hz (0.5-1.2). The average peak acceleration was 125.4 ms(-2) and 46.5 ms(-2) for the triceps surae and quadriceps at 28 Hz, respectively. The muscles' vibration frequency was equal to the input frequency of the WBV platform (ptriceps surae was higher than the corresponding accelerations related to soft tissue injury in animal studies but neither existing regulations nor the comparison to available animal studies seem appropriate to make inferences on injury risk. More realistic animal or computational muscle models may use the current data to evaluate potentially unwanted side effects of WBV training.

  20. Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1874 to 2100

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik;

    2014-01-01

    This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate past, present and future changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall for urban drainage systems. The performed analyses cover long historical precipitation records, observations from a high‐resolution rain‐gauge network, ...... and changes driven by the anthropogenic forcing is still to be better understood. However, the generated knowledge can assist the design of robust adaptation measures for changes in pluvial flood risk.......This study presents the results of a coordinated effort to estimate past, present and future changes and uncertainties in Danish design rainfall for urban drainage systems. The performed analyses cover long historical precipitation records, observations from a high‐resolution rain‐gauge network...... are considered effects of anthropogenic climate change. The increase in precipitation extremes has led to inundations in most of the larger cities during the last 10 years. To establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods, robust projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events...

  1. Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

    2008-02-22

    Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

  2. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Huntingford, Chris; Masato, Giacomo; Guillod, Benoit P.; Frumhoff, Peter; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-07-01

    It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

  3. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework.

  4. Spatial distribution of temperature extremes changes in Poland in 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna

    2013-04-01

    There is a general agreement that changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather and climate events have profound impacts on both human society and the economy. In the recent years a numerous weather events have affected human health and caused enormous economic losses. A long-lasting heat waves influence society far more than rare occurred extreme high temperature. On the other hand a winter warming and frequent exceedance of 0°C during winter will be disruptive i.e. for the wheel transport and roads condition in Poland. This work is focused on the study of the spatial diversity of minimum and maximum temperature in 21st century in Poland. Firstly the shift in distribution (PDF) and cumulative distribution (CDF) of the daily maximum temperature in summer and minimum temperature in winter between control and scenario periods was compared among different part of the country. Secondly the changes in the characteristic percentiles of the temperature extremes were analyzed. Furthermore the spatial changes in the duration and frequency of the heat waves in Poland were studied. Moreover the future prediction of changes in characteristic days as hot days (Tmax≥30°C), summer days (Tmax≥25°C), tropical nights (Tmin≥20°C), frost days (Tmin<0°C), etc. were spatially compared. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is expected to change remarkably in 21st century depending on the area of Poland. The daily minimum and maximum 2-meter temperature date have been obtained from seven different regional climate models and corrected by quintile mapping method afterwards. The Polish station data for the control period have been gained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute.

  5. Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA under global climate change (2041-2070

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grossman-Clarke, Susanne

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Summer extreme heat events in the arid Phoenix, Arizona (USA metropolitan region for the period 2041-2070 are projected based on the ensemble of ten climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme heat events are identified by measures related to two thresholds of the maximum daily air temperature distribution for the historical reference period 1971-2000. Comparing this reference period to the model ensemble-mean, the frequency of extreme heat events is projected to increase by a factor of six to 1.9 events per summer and the average number of event days per year is projected to increase by a factor of 14. The inter-model range for the average number of EHE days per summer is larger for the projected climate, 10.6 to 42.2 days, than for simulations of the past climate simulations (1.5 to 2.4 days.

  6. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  7. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  8. Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2013-04-01

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions

  9. Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Laura J.; Yiou, Pascal; Hauser, Mathias; Lott, Fraser C.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Colfescu, Ioana; Dong, Buwen; Hegerl, Gabi; Shaffrey, Len; Sutton, Rowan

    2017-07-01

    Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation.

  10. The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood

  11. Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.;

    2012-01-01

    for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal......Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... of average precipitation.In this paper, following an overview of some recent advances in the development of innovative methods for assessing the impacts of climate change on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics, several existing difficulties and remaining challenges in dealing...

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend or impact results. The review (Willems et al., 2012) considers the following aspects: analysis of long-term historical trends...... due to anthropogenic climate change, analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change, and implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. A summary is provided in this paper.......Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...

  13. Investigate the impact of climate change on daily extreme precipitation in the eastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Sivandran, G.

    2016-12-01

    Increase in heavy downpours have been observed across the U.S. An extreme index (the number of 2-day precipitation totals in a decade that exceeds a threshold corresponding to 5-year return period) has been shown to increase 30-70% in the eastern U.S. between the decades before 1960 and the 2001-2010 decade [Kunkel et al. 2013]. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve is a descriptive measure of extreme precipitation, and is commonly used to inform urban hydrological design. To understand how IDF curves are influenced by climate change is important for infrastructure planning and adaptation. As a first step towards this objective, this study investigates the potential changes in extreme precipitation at daily level over the eastern U.S. by a combination of statistical and dynamical downscaling approaches. The dynamical downscaling experiment is conducted with the Weather Forecast Model (Version 3.8), on the eastern U.S. domain and driven by a bias-corrected CMIP5 CESM dataset. The relationship between daily precipitation at coarse- and dynamically downscaled fine-grid levels are investigated using quantile-mapping and linear-regression methods with various calibration tweaks. The statistical relationship whose difference between future period and the historical baseline is comparable or smaller than the natural variability during 1950-2005 is then identified as not violating the stationarity assumption on the statistical relationship. The computationally cheaper identified statistical downscaling method is then used to downscale precipitation to station scale at National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network locations on the domain. In a future study, the downscaled daily precipitation will be disaggregated to hourly level by the k-Nearest Neighbor method, and thus to facilitate construction of IDF curves. Kunkel et al. 2013 Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge

  14. Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Su, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-12-01

    Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and

  15. Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation indices over India using PRECIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, K. Koteswara; Patwardhan, S. K.; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Kamala, K.; Sabade, S. S.; Kumar, K. Krishna

    2014-02-01

    The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extremes of rainfall over India is investigated using a high resolution regional climate model PRECIS developed by Hadley Centre, UK. Five simulations of PRECIS made using the lateral boundary conditions from a suite of Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPE) generated using Hadley Center Coupled Model (HadCM3) for Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project corresponding to IPCC A1B emission scenario have been analyzed here for this purpose. The projected changes depict seasonally dependent fine scale structure in response to the topographic forcing and changes in circulation, especially along the west coast and North East (NE) region of India towards the end of the 21st century i.e. 2080s (2071-2098). Analysis of the extreme precipitation indices indicates an increase in the intensity of rainfall on wet days towards 2080s under A1B scenario. Changes in extreme precipitation events and dry spells suggest not only shifts, but also a substantial increase in the spread of the precipitation distribution, with an increased probability of the occurrence of events conducive to both floods and droughts. The projected changes in various precipitation extremes show a large regional variability. Total rainfall on very heavy rainy days (R95p) is projected to increase by around 40-50% over the central parts of the country. The number of rainy days > 10 mm (R10) may increase by 10-20% over west coast, east central India and northeastern parts while over northwest and rain shadow region they may increase by 40-50%. The consecutive dry days (CDDs) may decrease by 10-20% over Indo-Gangetic plain, however over west coast there may not be any significant change. The CDDs are projected to rise by 10-20% over west central and peninsular India. The precipitation per wet day (SDII) may be more intense by 10-40% over the entire land mass, however there may not be any significant change over south peninsular India.

  16. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  17. Implications of dynamics underlying temperature and precipitation distributions for changes in extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Loikith, P. C.; Stechmann, S. N.; Sahany, S.; Bernstein, D. N.; Quinn, K. M.; Meyerson, J.; Hales, K.; Langenbrunner, B.

    2015-12-01

    Characterizing present-day probability distributions of temperature and precipitation measures are an important part of the pathway to improving quantitative assessment of changes in their extremes. In some cases, relatively simple prototypes for the dynamics underlying these distributions can assist in this characterization, pointing to key physical factors and measures to evaluate even in more complex distributions. In the case of daily temperature distributions, quantifying the widespread occurrence of non-Gaussian tails is motivated in part by tracer-advection across a maintained gradient prototypes. Substantial implications of the shape of these tails for regional changes in probabilities of temperature extremes with large-scale warming motivate measures of non-Gaussianity specific to this problem for assessing climate model present-day simulations. In the case of distributions of precipitation accumulations, simple prototypes yield insights into the form of the present-day distribution and predictions for the form of the global warming changes that can be evaluated in models and observations. Probability drops relatively slowly over a substantial range of accumulation size, followed by a key cutoff scale that limits large event probabilities in current climate but changes under global warming. Precipitation integrated over spatial clusters exhibits similar distribution features.

  18. Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

    2016-04-01

    In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

  19. Changing precipitation extremes in a warming climate: A basis for design flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    The potential for increasing intensity of future rainfall events has significant implications for flooding and the design of infrastructure. However the questions of how precipitation will change in the future, how important these changes are to flooding, and how engineers incorporate these changes into hydrologic design remain as open questions. In the absence of reliable point based estimates of how precipitation will change, many studies investigate the historical relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature as a proxy for what may happen in a warmer climate. Much of the research to date has focussed on changing precipitation intensity, however, temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation are just as important. Here we link higher temperatures to changes in temporal and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation events. We show, using observed high quality precipitation records from Australia covering all major climatic zones, that storms are intensifying in both time and space resulting in a greater potential for flooding especially in urban locales around the world. Given that precipitation and antecedent conditions are changing, and, the impacts to flooding are significant, methods of incorporating these changes in catchment modelling are required. Continuous simulation offers a natural flexibility to incorporate the many correlated changes in precipitation that may occur in a future climate. An argument for such a framework using existing continuous simulation alternatives is articulated in concluding this presentation.

  20. A psychological comparison of females with anorexia nervosa and competitive male bodybuilders: body shape ideals in the extreme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, C; Scott-Robertson, L

    2000-09-01

    There is accumulating evidence that young men have become as concerned with their physical appearance as young women. However, different from women who want to achieve an ultra-slender body shape, most men want to increase their muscle mass and body size. Women with anorexia nervosa (AN) and competitive male bodybuilders are those who have taken the cultural standards of bodily perfection to the extreme, and both use unhealthy behaviours such as severe food restriction, excessive exercise, and steroids in pursuit of their goals. Findings of this study confirmed our prediction that the psychological profile of bodybuilders would be very similar to that found in women with AN. Both groups were significantly more obsessional, perfectionistic, anhedonic, and pathologically narcissistic than the general population. However, the bodybuilders reported very positive perceptions of their self-worth while the AN patients had very negative perceptions. Results are interpreted in the framework of a speculative developmental model of AN and bodybuilding, which focuses on the role of personality in the initiation and maintenance of excessive behaviours.

  1. Expected climate change impacts on extreme flows in Vietnam: The limits of bias correction techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laux, Patrick; Dang, Thinh; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    We investigate possible impacts of climate change on future floods in the VuGia-ThuBon river basin, central Vietnam using a multi-model climate ensemble. An ensemble of regional climate projections (SRES) derived from different combinations of global and regional climate models in combination with different emission scenarios are used. In order to correct for the biases between the modelled climate variables and the observations, different bias correction techniques such as linear scaling, local intensity scaling, and quantile mapping are applied to the RCM outputs. Bias-corrected and raw climate data are then used as input for the fully distributed hydrological water balance model WaSIM-ETH to reproduce discharge data at NongSon station. Annual maximum discharges are extracted from the modeled daily series from the control period (1980-1999) and the future periods 2011-2030, 2031-2050, and 2080-2099 for subsequent extreme frequency analyses. To derive flood frequency curves for the four time periods, the generalized extreme value probability distribution is fitted to the data. Our analysis shows that actually none of the bias correction approaches applied to the control runs of simulated precipitation data can satisfactorily correct their distributions towards those of the observations. Therefore, this study builds further on the delta change approach, which adjusts the observed extreme values by the derived signals from the hydrological simulations fed by raw future climate projections. Adjusted return periods of e.g. HQ100 values are calculated based on the delta change method. The results inhibit a remarkable variation among the different climate scenarios in representing extreme values. Results show that MRI-MRI, ECHAM3-REMO, HadCMQ10-HadRM3P and HadCMQ13-HadRM3P models always exhibit a positive signal for all considered time slices and climate change scenarios. On the other hand, CCSM-MM5 frequently shows a negative signal for all time slices. On average, an

  2. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  3. Extreme Hydrological Changes in the Western United States Drive Reductions in Water Supply by Mid Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagan, Brianna; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi; Mei, Rui; Kendall, Donald; Pal, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    The Western United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. This study provides an integrated approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. A 10-member ensemble of coupled global climate models is dynamically downscaled forcing a regional and hydrological model resulting in a high-resolution 4-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). While precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity, which are evaluated by using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Standardized Precipitation Index and ratio of daily precipitation to annual precipitation. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation event events significantly increase in intensity and frequency. Return periods change such that extreme events in the future become much more common by mid-century. The largest changes occur in the Colorado River where the daily annual maximum runoff 100-year event, for example, becomes approximately ten times more likely and twice as likely in the other

  4. Extreme floods in the Mekong River Delta under climate change: combined impacts of upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Long; Nguyen Viet, Dung; Kummu, Matti; Lauri, Hannu; Koponen, Jorma; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Supit, Iwan; Leemans, Rik; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-04-01

    Extreme floods cause huge damages to human lives and infrastructure, and hamper socio-economic development in the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam. Induced by climate change, upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise are expected to further exacerbate future flood hazard and thereby posing critical challenges for securing safety and sustainability. This paper provides a probabilistic quantification of future flood hazard for the Mekong Delta, focusing on extreme events under climate change. We developed a model chain to simulate separate and combined impacts of two drivers, namely upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise on flood magnitude and frequency. Simulation results show that upstream changes and sea level rise substantially increase flood hazard throughout the whole Mekong Delta. Due to differences in their nature, two drivers show different features in their impacts on floods. Impacts of upstream changes are more dominant in floodplains in the upper delta, causing an increase of up to +0.80 m in flood depth. Sea level rise introduces flood hazard to currently safe areas in the middle and coastal delta zones. A 0.6 m rise in relative sea level causes an increase in flood depth between 0.10 and 0.70 m, depending on location by 2050s. Upstream hydrological changes and sea level rise tend to intensify each other's impacts on floods, resulting in stronger combined impacts than linearly summed impacts of each individual driver. Substantial increase of future flood hazard strongly requires better flood protection and more flood resilient development for the Mekong Delta. Findings from this study can be used as quantified physical boundary conditions to develop flood management strategies and strategic delta management plans.

  5. Extreme rainfall-induced landslide changes based on landslide susceptibility in China, 1998-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weiyue; Liu, Chun; Hong, Yang

    2017-04-01

    Nowadays, landslide has been one of the most frequent and seriously widespread natural hazards all over the world. Rainfall, especially heavy rainfall is a trigger to cause the landslide occurrence, by increasing soil pore water pressures. In China, rainfall-induced landslides have risen up over to 90% of the total number. Rainfall events sometimes generate a trend of extremelization named rainfall extremes that induce the slope failure suddenly and severely. This study shows a method to simulate the rainfall-induced landslide spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. We set the values of the index to the range between 0 and 1. Second, we collected TRMM 3B42 precipitation products spanning the years 1998-2015 and extracted the daily rainfall events greater than 50mm/day as extreme rainfall. Most of the rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate extreme rainfall-induced landslide distribution and illustrate the changes in 17 years. This study shows a useful tool to be part of rainfall-induced landslide simulation methodology for landslide early warning.

  6. Climate change and probabilistic scenario of streamflow extremes in an alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Wang, Xiaoyan; Yu, Zhongbo; Krysanova, Valentina; Chen, Xi; Schwartz, Franklin W.; Sudicky, Edward A.

    2014-07-01

    Future projections of streamflow extremes are of paramount significance in assessing the climate impacts on social and natural systems, particularly for the Himalayan alpine region in the Tibetan Plateau known as the Asian water tower. This study strives to quantify the uncertainties from different sources in simulating future extreme flows and seeks to construct reliable scenarios of future extreme flows for the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin in the 21st century. The results can be formulated as follows: (1) The revised snow model based on a daily active temperature method is superior to the commonly used degree-day method in simulating snowmelt processes. (2) In general, hydrological models contribute more uncertainties than the downscaling methods in high flow and low flow over the cryospheric alpine regions characterized by the snow-rainfall-induced runoff processes under most scenarios. Meanwhile, impacts to uncertainty vary with time. (3) The ultimate probability of high flow exhibits a downward trend in future by using an unconditional method, whereas positive changes in the probability of low flow are projected. The method in the work includes a variety of influence from different contributing factors (e.g., downscaling models, hydrological models, model parameters, and their simulation skills) on streamflow projection, therefore can offer more information (i.e., different percentiles of flow and uncertainty ranges) for future water resource planning compared with the purely deterministic approaches. Hence, the results are beneficial to boost our current methodologies of climate impact research in the Himalayan alpine zone.

  7. Climate change and probabilistic scenario of streamflow extremes in a cryospheric alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao; Gao, Cheng

    2015-04-01

    Future projections of streamflow extremes are of paramount significance in assessing the climate impacts on social and natural systems, particularly for the Himalayan alpine region in the Tibetan Plateau known as the Asian Water Tower. This study strives to quantify the uncertainties from different sources in simulating future extreme flows and seeks to construct reliable scenarios of future extreme flows for the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin in the 21st century. The results can be formulated as follows: (1) The revised snow model based on a daily active temperature method is superior to the commonly used degree-day method in simulating snowmelt processes. (2) In general, hydrological models contribute more uncertainties than the downscaling methods in high flow and low flow over the cryospheric alpine regions characterized by the snow-rainfall induced runoff processes under most scenarios. Meanwhile, impacts to uncertainty vary with time. (3) The ultimate probability of high-flow exhibits a downward trend in future by using an unconditional method, whereas positive changes in probability of low-flow are projected. The method in the work includes a variety of influence from different contributing factors (e.g. downscaling models, hydrological models, model parameters, and their simulation skills) on streamflow projection, therefore can offer more information (i.e. different percentiles of flow and uncertainty ranges) for future water resources planning compared with the purely deterministic approaches. Hence, the results are beneficial to boost our current methodologies of climate impact research in the Himalayan alpine zone.

  8. Changes in precipitation extremes in Brazil (Paraná River Basin)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandonadi, Leandro; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Fratianni, Simona; Zavattini, João Afonso

    2016-02-01

    This research was aimed at addressing aspects related to variation in the amount of precipitation during the period from 1986 to 2011 in the Paraná River Hydrographical Basin, Brazil, for 32 meteorological stations using 11 climate indices created by the ETCCDI (Expert Team, ET, on Climate Change Detection and Indices, ETCCDI). The daily rainfall data were organized in spreadsheets, which were subjected to an intense quality control and an accurate historical research. For each pluviometric index, we have estimated the trends and the statistical significant of the slopes have been calculated. The results confirm that an increase in total precipitation in almost all analyzed stations was registered, and the extreme precipitations were the main contributors to such additions. In fact, the significant increase in total annual rainfall in north-central sector of the basin are related to higher rates of heavy rain, mainly above 95th percentile, as well as to the highest event of rainfall above 10 mm. Instead the northern part of the region, showed declining trends of extreme rainfall, caused mainly by the reduction in the rainfall occurrences over 95th percentile. In order to evaluate the impact that the increasing extreme rainfall may cause in large urban centers, we have investigated the data of two municipalities (Curitiba, PR and Goiânia, GO-Brazil), where the positive trend can cause inconvenience to the population (floods and inundations) suggesting, at least, the need of implementation of more effective urban planning for the future.

  9. Serotonergic mediated body mass index changes in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politis, Marios; Loane, Clare; Wu, Kit; Brooks, David J; Piccini, Paola

    2011-09-01

    More than 50% of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) are expected to show abnormalities with their weight in a process that starts several years before the diagnosis. The serotonergic (5-HT) system has been proposed to regulate appetite and the 5-HT transporter (SERT) is a key modulator of 5-HT metabolism. Here, we hypothesized that a dysfunctional 5-HT system could be responsible for alterations of weight in PD and we sought to investigate this in vivo. Thirty four PD patients had Body Mass Index (BMI) changes monitored over a 12-month period and one positron emission tomography (PET) brain scan with (11)C-DASB, a selective marker of SERT availability, during their second clinical assessment. Results were compared with those of a group of 10 normal controls. Half (17) of the PD patients showed abnormal BMI changes over the 12-month period; 12 lost while 5 gained weight. PD patients with abnormal BMI changes showed significantly raised (11)C-DASB binding in rostral raphe nuclei, hypothalamus, caudate nucleus and ventral striatum compared to cases with no significant BMI changes. (11)C-DASB binding in other regions was similarly decreased in the PD BMI subgroups compared to normal controls. BMI gainers showed significantly raised (11)C-DASB binding in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) compared to BMI losers. Our findings suggest that abnormal BMI changes over a 12-month period are linked with relatively raised SERT availability in PD on an overall background of decreased 5-HT function. The regions implicated are the rostral raphe nuclei and its connections to limbic and cognitive areas. It is conceivable that 5-HT agents could help alleviate abnormal changes in BMI in PD.

  10. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.

  11. Lymphaticovenous bypass decreases pathologic skin changes in upper extremity breast cancer-related lymphedema.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrisi, Jeremy S; Joseph, Walter J; Ghanta, Swapna; Cuzzone, Daniel A; Albano, Nicholas J; Savetsky, Ira L; Gardenier, Jason C; Skoracki, Roman; Chang, David; Mehrara, Babak J

    2015-03-01

    Recent advances in microsurgery such as lymphaticovenous bypass (LVB) have been shown to decrease limb volumes and improve subjective symptoms in patients with lymphedema. However, to date, it remains unknown if these procedures can reverse the pathological tissue changes associated with lymphedema. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze skin tissue changes in patients before and after LVB. Matched skin biopsy samples were collected from normal and lymphedematous limbs of 6 patients with unilateral breast cancer-related upper extremity lymphedema before and 6 months after LVB. Biopsy specimens were fixed and analyzed for inflammation, fibrosis, hyperkeratosis, and lymphangiogenesis. Six months following LVB, 83% of patients had symptomatic improvement in their lymphedema. Histological analysis at this time demonstrated a significant decrease in tissue CD4(+) cell inflammation in lymphedematous limb (but not normal limb) biopsies (pskin. These findings suggest that the some of the pathologic changes of lymphedema are reversible and may be related to lymphatic fluid stasis.

  12. Regional climate extremes in Northern Eurasia associated with atmospheric blockings: Interannual variations and tendencies of change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I.; Akperov, M.; Lupo, A. R.; Chernokulsky, A. V.; Timazhev, A.

    2011-12-01

    Large regional climate anomalies associated with atmospheric blockings have been noted during last years in Northern Eurasia. Impact of blockings is exhibited in such extremes as heat and cold waves, droughts, and forest fires. In order to detect changes in the blocking activity characteristics an analysis of different data for the Northern Hemisphere with the use of various methods for blockings detection was carried out. In particular, the data for 500 hPa geopotential from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (1948-2010) and NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis v2 (1871-2008) have been used as well as climate model simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries with anthropogenic forcing. Special attention is paid to the analysis of extreme dry conditions in the Northern Eurasia regions and to the 2010 Russian heat wave associated to atmospheric blockings with the use observational data (1891-2010) for surface air temperature, precipitation and different indices for the drought conditions. Tendencies of change and interannual variations are analyzed with an assessment of effects of El-Nino/La-Nina phenomena. Possibility of intensification of blocking-associated climate impacts under global warming is discussed. Changes of blocking characteristics and associated regional climate anomalies in the 21st century based on model simulations with anthropogenic scenarios are analyzed.

  13. Horsing Around with Climate: Effect of Technology-Driven Landuse Change on Extreme Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sines, T. R.; Arritt, R. W.

    2016-12-01

    The shift from work animals such as horses to mechanized labor and transport led to a decrease in acreage devoted to small grains (primarily oats) in the United States. Land formerly devoted to these crops was converted mostly to soybeans, which saw a forty-fold increase in planted acreage from 1940 to present. The same period saw an increase in extreme precipitation over the continental United States. We investigate possible connections between this agricultural landuse modification and precipitation changes in the central United States using the WRF-ARW model coupled with the Community Land Model. Crop acreages for maize, soybean, winter wheat, spring wheat, and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed for 1940-2010 using county-level data. This landuse was then used as surface input for two regional climate simulations, one using constant 1940s landuse and another using constant 2010 landuse. The landuse change was found to produce a shift in the precipitation intensity spectrum, with simulations using 2010 landuse having higher frequencies for heavier precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s landuse. The break point for this shift corresponded to daily precipitation of about 24 mm. This indicates that agricultural landuse change has contributed to the observed trend in extreme precipitation, increasing the frequency of heavy daily rainfall.

  14. Tracking Change in rapid and eXtreme Development: A Challenge to SCM-tools?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak

    2001-01-01

    the tool does its job, change descriptions must be memorised until your next check-in, etc. This kind of overhead and disruption does not fit well with fast-paced development processes like rapid prototyping, explorative programming, and eXtreme Programming that favour creativity, speed, and communication......Software configuration management (SCM) has proved to be an invaluable part of developing and maintaining high quality software. The benefits are not for free however: SCM tool operations often divert your attention from your development task, sometimes you have to endure a long waiting time while...

  15. Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Wolf, Blair O

    2010-04-23

    Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150-200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

  16. Using scaling fluctuation analysis to quantify anthropogenic changes in regional and global precipitation, including extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    Anthropic precipitation changes affect the mean and the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, and therefore potentially have severe consequences in all aspects of human life. Unfortunately, - unlike the anthropic temperature changes - precipitation changes of anthropic origin have been proven difficult to establish with high statistical significance. For example, when changes have been established for individual precipitation products, the serious divergences found between products reflect our limited ability to estimate areal precipitation even at global scales. In addition to data issues, the usual approaches to assessing changes in precipitation also have methodological issues that hamper their identification. Here we discuss how the situation can be clarified by the systematic application of scaling fluctuation analysis - for example, to determine the scales at which the anthropogenic signal exceeds the natural variability noise (we find that it is roughly 20 years). Following a recent approach for estimating anthropogenic temperature changes we directly determine the effective sensitivity of the precipitation rate to a doubling of CO2. The novelty in this approach is that it takes CO2 as a surrogate for all anthropogenic forcings and estimates the trend based on the forcing rather than time - the usual approach. This leads both to an improved signal to noise ratio and, when compared to the usual estimates of trends, it augments their statistical significance; we further improve the signal to noise ratio by considering precipitation over the ocean where anthropogenic increases are strongest, finding that there are statistically significant trends at the 3 to 4 standard deviation level. This approach also permits the first direct estimate of the increases in global precipitation with temperature: we find 1.71±0.62 %/K which is close to that found by GCM's (2 - 3%/K) and is well below the value of ≈ 6 - 7%/K predicted on the basis of increases in humidity

  17. Projected changes to surface wind characteristics and extremes over North America in CRCM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the tendency of wind speed and direction have significant implications for long-term water cycle, air pollution, arid and semiarid environments, fire activity, and wind energy production. Furthermore, changes in wind extremes have direct impacts on buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, power lines, and trees. This study evaluates projected changes to wind speed characteristics (i.e., seasonal and annual mean, seasonal and diurnal cycles, directional distribution, and extreme events) for the future 2071-2100 period, with respect to the current 1981-2010 period over North America, using four different simulations from the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) with two driving GCMs under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CRCM5 simulates the climatology of mean sea level pressure gradient and associated wind direction over North America well when compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The CRCM5 also reproduces properly the spatial distributions of observed seasonal and annual mean wind speeds obtained from 611 meteorological stations across North America. The CRCM5 simulations generally suggest an increase in future mean wind speed for northern and eastern parts of Canada, due to a decrease of future mean sea level pressure and more intense low pressure air circulation systems already situated in those regions such as Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. Projected changes to annual maximum wind speed show more spatial variability compared to seasonal and annual mean wind speed as extreme wind speed is influenced more by regional-scale features associated with instantaneous surface temperature and air pressure gradients. The CRCM5 simulations suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of wind speed, mainly due to changes in the inter-annual variability of annual maximum wind speed. However, the projected changes vary in spatial pattern with the driving GCM fields and emission scenarios

  18. Tackling air pollution and extreme climate changes in China: Implementing the Paris climate change agreement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambo, Ernest; Duo-Quan, Wang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2016-10-01

    China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power despite big investments in the process of shifting to nuclear, solar and wind power renewable energy resources alignment with Paris climate change agreement (Paris CCA). Chinese government through the Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) ascribes great importance and commitment to Paris CCA legacy and history landmark implementation at all levels. As the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter, China has embarked on "SMART" pollution and climate changes programs and measures to reduce coal-fired power plants to less than 50% in the next five years include: new China model of energy policies commitment on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions reductions to less than 20% non-fossil energy use by 2030 without undermining their economic growth, newly introduced electric vehicles transportation benefits, interactive and sustained air quality index (AQI) monitoring systems, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel economic activities, revision of energy price reforms and renewable energy to less energy efficient technologies development. Furthermore, ongoing CPCC improved environmental initiatives, implemented strict regulations and penalties on local companies and firms' pollution production management, massive infrastructures such as highways to reduce CO2 expansion of seven regional emissions trading markets and programs for CO2 emissions and other pollutants are being documented. Maximizing on the centralized nature of the China's government, implemented Chinese pollution, climate changes mitigation and adaptation initiatives, "SMART" strategies and credible measures are promising. A good and practical example is the interactive and dynamic website and database covering 367 Chinese cities and providing real time information on environmental and pollution emissions AQI. Also, water quality index (WQI), radiation and nuclear safety monitoring and management systems over time and space. These are ongoing Chinese

  19. Extreme waves from Nortes and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Hernández-Lasheras, Jaime; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael

    2017-04-01

    Extreme ocean waves in the Gulf of Mexico are a result from the incidence of tropical cyclones and anticyclone systems known as Nortes. While the waves derived from tropical cyclones have devastating consequences but a low probability of occurrence, Nortes are a frequent phenomenon producing disruptions of maritime activities during autumn/winter months. In this study we present an assessment of the waves generated by Nortes and the effects of a warming climate. To do so, we first developed a methodology to identify Norte events and classify them according to their effect over the sea state. A new index is proposed to identify events, which was used to identify events in the present and future climates. A third generation wave model was run for each of the events identified in the CFSR reanalysis and the CMIP5 model CNRM-M5 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Nortes were classified into 5 types, using both principal component analysis and a cluster analysis by k-means over the computed wave power of the individual events. An assessment of the effect of climate change was performed over the different Norte types, which indicated that climate change will result in less frequent events of higher intensity and more frequent mild events. This may provide a relief for coastal and marine operations, in relation to downtimes due to extreme wave conditions, so that the operational design of maritime structures could consider a lower occurrence of extreme events as a result of Nortes. While the results are not conclusive due to the uncertainty imposed by Global Circulation Models, this study provides the methodology to perform the assessment on other models to reduce uncertainty.

  20. Changes in Wind Speed and Extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 Based on Homogenized Observations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Zhen; YAN Zhongwei; TU Kai; LIU Weidong; WANG Yingchun

    2011-01-01

    Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26,-0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

  1. Climate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in an alpine grassland of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zengyun; Li, Qingxiang; Chen, Xi; Teng, Zhidong; Chen, Changchun; Yin, Gang; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-11-01

    The natural ecosystem in Central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to the arid and semiarid climate variations, especially the climate extreme events. However, the climate extreme events in this area are still unclear. Therefore, this study analyzed the climate variability in the temperature and precipitation extreme events in an alpine grassland (Bayanbuluk) of Central Asia based on the daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily precipitation from 1958 to 2012. Statistically significant ( p < 0.01) increasing trends were found in the minimum temperature, maximum temperature at annual, and seasonal time scales except the winter maximum temperature. In the seasonal changes, the winter temperature had the largest contribution to the annual warming. Further, there appeared increasing trends for the warm nights and the warm days and decreasing trends for the cool nights and the cool days at a 99 % confidence level. These trends directly resulted in an increasing trend for the growing season length (GSL) which could have positively influence on the vegetation productivity. For the precipitation, it displayed an increasing trend for the annual precipitation although it was not significant. And the summer precipitation had the same variations as the annual precipitation which indicated that the precipitation in summer made the biggest contribution to the annual precipitation than the other three seasons. The winter precipitation had a significant increasing trend (1.49 mm/10a) and a decreasing trend was found in spring. We also found that the precipitation of the very wet days mainly contributes to the annual precipitation with the trend of 4.5 mm/10a. The maximum 1-day precipitation and the heavy precipitation days only had slight increasing trend. A sharp decreasing trend was found before the early 1980s, and then becoming increase for the above three precipitation indexes. The climate experienced a warm-wet abrupt climate change in the 1980s

  2. Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan C; Barichivich, William J; Brown, Mary E

    2013-03-11

    The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change-that of extreme variation in precipitation-may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall "pulses" are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

  3. Evaluating past change of extreme rainfall over Taiwan using a standardized index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu-Shiang, T.

    2016-12-01

    The climate variability of the annual daily maximum precipitation (rx1day) is sensitive to outliers and difficult to assess. In view of this, we present a statistical methodology, which follows the cumulative density function (CDF) on the parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, to standardize the rx1day by a probability index (PI) in space-time. We show that a strong relationship exists between the indices and associated PIs of the observed station records and gridded dataset at area-mean. Based on these verifications, no distinct linear trend was found before the end of the 20th century over western Taiwan, but a climate regime change appeared during 2002-2003. We also present the dual change effects from both the variance and linear trend of extreme events over the northeastern and southern parts of Taiwan, along with the island's central and southern mountainous regions. From the 16 models of the Couple Model Intercomparison Projects Phase-5 (CMIP5), we evaluate the climate variability of PIs on present (ALL) and future (RCP45 and RCP85) scenarios. In the 21st century, the high confidence level in RCP85 shows that the PI increases 10% during the first half of the century. By the end of the century, it is projected to reach 14%, despite current climate fluctuations being smaller than actual observations.

  4. Relationships between fertility and postpartum changes in body condition and body weight in lactating dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, P D; Souza, A H; Amundson, M C; Hackbart, K S; Fuenzalida, M J; Herlihy, M M; Ayres, H; Dresch, A R; Vieira, L M; Guenther, J N; Grummer, R R; Fricke, P M; Shaver, R D; Wiltbank, M C

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between energy status and fertility in dairy cattle was retrospectively analyzed by comparing fertility with body condition score (BCS) near artificial insemination (AI; experiment 1), early postpartum changes in BCS (experiment 2), and postpartum changes in body weight (BW; experiment 3). To reduce the effect of cyclicity status, all cows were synchronized with Double-Ovsynch protocol before timed AI. In experiment 1, BCS of lactating dairy cows (n = 1,103) was evaluated near AI. Most cows (93%) were cycling at initiation of the breeding Ovsynch protocol (first GnRH injection). A lower percentage pregnant to AI (P/AI) was found in cows with lower (≤ 2.50) versus higher (≥ 2.75) BCS (40.4 vs. 49.2%). In experiment 2, lactating dairy cows on 2 commercial dairies (n = 1,887) were divided by BCS change from calving until the third week postpartum. Overall, P/AI at 70-d pregnancy diagnosis differed dramatically by BCS change and was least for cows that lost BCS, intermediate for cows that maintained BCS, and greatest for cows that gained BCS [22.8% (180/789), 36.0% (243/675), and 78.3% (331/423), respectively]. Surprisingly, a difference existed between farms with BCS change dramatically affecting P/AI on one farm and no effect on the other farm. In experiment 3, lactating dairy cows (n = 71) had BW measured weekly from the first to ninth week postpartum and then had superovulation induced using a modified Double-Ovsynch protocol. Cows were divided into quartiles (Q) by percentage of BW change (Q1 = least change; Q4 = most change) from calving until the third week postpartum. No effect was detected of quartile on number of ovulations, total embryos collected, or percentage of oocytes that were fertilized; however, the percentage of fertilized oocytes that were transferable embryos was greater for cows in Q1, Q2, and Q3 than Q4 (83.8, 75.2, 82.6, and 53.2%, respectively). In addition, percentage of degenerated embryos was least for cows in Q1, Q2

  5. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, M.

    2016-12-01

    Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

  6. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  7. MRI Could Be Changed Vertebral Body Fracture Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Jalal Shokouki

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Objective: Evaluation of spinal column fracture or trauma with MRI in more than two years among 500 patients can change classifications of frac-tures that is important because of intervention ther-apy methods like vertebroplasty and kyfoplasty. As there are changes at Salter harrie fractures, classifica-tion, treatments` way, and management of vertebral body fracture will change. Also MRI can show inter-nal parts ruptures, vessel punctures, and show the size of hematomas."nPatients and Methods: Fifty patients at two imaging centers have been tested with MRI 1.5 tesla machines from GE and Siemens with superficial coil, and all of them had vertebral column trauma. We used T1 and T2 sagital and in some cases STIR or FAT SAT sagital. "nResults: Among our cases, 147 had fractures, and two cases had spinal punctures. The most common from of fractures were anterior wedging with compression of upper endplate. "nThe maximum fractures were five in a single trauma and mostly there were 2-3 fractures in a single trau-ma. Most of the fractures did not appear at X-ray, but they revealed at MRI specially with STIR pulse."nConclusion: 1 MRI especially STIR pulse is definite and sensitive to compression even in slight among which can be hidden from X-ray and CT. 2 Findings number and form of fractures with MRI, comparing with clinical signs will change classification of verte-bral fractures that leads to the better treatment re-sults. 3 CT is better for vertebral appendix fractures. 4 MRI is better for seeing complications of soft tis-sue. 5 MRI is better for siagnosins of old complica-tions and old fractures.

  8. Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

  9. 76 FR 38360 - Workshop-Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge; Notice of Open...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Workshop--Monitoring Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge; Notice of Open Public Workshop AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data,...

  10. Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Wheaton

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production, but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended.

  11. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.

  12. Alternative growth functions for predicting body, carcass, and breast weight in ducks: Lomolino equation and extreme value function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faridi, A; Murawska, D; Golian, A; Mottaghitalab, M; Gitoee, A; Lopez, S; France, J

    2014-04-01

    In this study, 2 alternative growth functions, the Lomolino and the extreme value function (EVF), are introduced and their ability to predict body, carcass, and breast weight in ducks evaluated. A comparative study was carried out of these equations with standard growth functions: Gompertz, exponential, Richards, and generalized Michaelis-Menten. Goodness of fit of the functions was evaluated using R(2), mean square error, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion, whereas bias factor, accuracy factor, Durbin-Watson statistic, and number of runs of sign were the criteria used for analysis of residuals. Results showed that predictive performance of all functions was acceptable, though the Richards and exponential equations failed to converge in a few cases for both male and female ducks. Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the Richards, Gompertz, and EVF were the best equations whereas the worst fits to the data were obtained with the exponential. Analysis of residuals indicated that, for the different traits investigated, the least biased and the most accurate equations were the Gompertz, EVF, Richards, and generalized Michaelis-Menten, whereas the exponential was the most biased and least accurate. Based on the Durbin-Watson statistic, all models generally behaved well and only the exponential showed evidence of autocorrelation for all 3 traits investigated. Results showed that with all functions, estimated final weights of males were higher than females for the body, carcass, and breast weight profiles. The alternative functions introduced here have desirable advantages including flexibility and a low number of parameters. However, because this is probably the first study to apply these functions to predict growth patterns in poultry or other animals, further analysis of these new models is suggested.

  13. Scaling and Intensification of Extreme Precipitation in High-Resolution Climate Change Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Climate change projections of extreme precipitation are of great interest due to hydrological impacts such as droughts, floods, erosion, landslides and debris flows. Despite the trend towards dryer conditions over Europe, many climate simulations project increases of heavy precipitation events, while some theoretical studies have raised the possibility of dramatic increases in hourly events (by up to 14% per degree warming). However, conventional climate models are not suited to assess short-term heavy events due to the need to parameterize deep convection. High-resolution climate models with kilometer-scale grid spacing at which parameterization of convection can be switched off, significantly improve the simulation of heavy precipitation and can alter the climate change signal (e.g., Ban et al., 2015). Here we present decade-long high-resolution climate change simulations at horizontal resolution of 2.2 km over Europe on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 grid points. These simulations have become feasible with a new version of the COSMO model that runs entirely on Graphics Processing Units. We compare a present-day climate simulation, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (Leutwyler at al., 2016), with a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation The PGW simulation is driven by the slowly evolving mean seasonal cycle of the climate changes (derived from the CMIP5 model), superimposed on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. With this approach, the resulting changes are due to large scale warming of the atmosphere and due to slow-varying circulation changes. We will present the differences in climate change signal between conventional and high-resolution climate models, and discuss the thermodynamic effects on intensification of extreme precipitation. Ban N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär, 2015: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophys. Res. Lett., 42 (4), 1165-1172 Leutwyler, D., D. Lüthi, N. Ban, O. Fuhrer and C

  14. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  15. Drought, Deluge and Declines: The Impact of Precipitation Extremes on Amphibians in a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan C. Walls

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

  16. Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan C.; Barichivich, William J.; Brown, Mary E.

    2013-01-01

    The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

  17. Treatment-associated changes in body composition, health behaviors, and mood as predictors of change in body satisfaction in obese women: effects of age and race/ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annesi, James J; Tennant, Gisèle A; Mareno, Nicole

    2014-12-01

    A lack of satisfaction with one's body is common among women with obesity, often prompting unhealthy "dieting." Beyond typically slow improvements in weight and body composition, behavioral factors might also affect change in body satisfaction. Age and race/ethnicity (African American vs. White) might moderate such change. Obese women (N = 246; M(age) = 43 years; M BMI = 39 kg/m(2)) initiating a 6-month cognitive-behaviorally based physical activity and nutrition treatment were assessed on possible predictors of body satisfaction change. At baseline, African American and younger women had significantly higher body satisfaction. The treatment was associated with significant within-group improvements in mood, health behaviors (physical activity and fruit/vegetable intake), and body composition (waist circumference). A multiple regression analysis indicated that mood, health behavior, and body composition changes explained a significant 27% of the variance in body satisfaction change. Of these predictors, changes in mood (β = -.36, p manageable changes in behavioral factors for improving body satisfaction were discussed.

  18. Scientific Grand Challenges: Challenges in Climate Change Science and the Role of Computing at the Extreme Scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Johnson, Gary M.; Washington, Warren M.

    2009-07-02

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) in partnership with the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) held a workshop on the challenges in climate change science and the role of computing at the extreme scale, November 6-7, 2008, in Bethesda, Maryland. At the workshop, participants identified the scientific challenges facing the field of climate science and outlined the research directions of highest priority that should be pursued to meet these challenges. Representatives from the national and international climate change research community as well as representatives from the high-performance computing community attended the workshop. This group represented a broad mix of expertise. Of the 99 participants, 6 were from international institutions. Before the workshop, each of the four panels prepared a white paper, which provided the starting place for the workshop discussions. These four panels of workshop attendees devoted to their efforts the following themes: Model Development and Integrated Assessment; Algorithms and Computational Environment; Decadal Predictability and Prediction; Data, Visualization, and Computing Productivity. The recommendations of the panels are summarized in the body of this report.

  19. Development of body weight support gait training system using pneumatic Mckibben actuators -control of lower extremity orthosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Dzahir, M A; Nobutomo, T; Yamamoto, S I

    2013-01-01

    Recently, robot assisted therapy devices are increasingly used for spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation in assisting handicapped patients to regain their impaired movements. Assistive robotic systems may not be able to cure or fully compensate impairments, but it should be able to assist certain impaired functions and ease movements. In this study, the control system of lower extremity orthosis for the body weight support gait training system which implements pneumatic artificial muscle (PAM) is proposed. The hip and knee joint angles of the gait orthosis system are controlled based on the PAM coordinates information from the simulation. This information provides the contraction data for the mono- and bi-articular PAMs that are arranged as posterior and anterior actuators to simulate the human walking motion. The proposed control system estimates the actuators' contraction as a function of hip and knee joint angles. Based on the contraction model obtained, input pressures for each actuators are measured. The control system are performed at different gait cycles and two PMA settings for the mono- and bi-articular actuators are evaluated in this research. The results showed that the system was able to achieve the maximum muscle moment at the joints, and able to perform the heel contact movement. This explained that the antagonistic mono- and bi-articular actuators worked effectively.

  20. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  1. Monitoring Changes of Tropical Extreme Rainfall Events Using Differential Absorption Barometric Radar (DiBAR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Harrah, Steven; Lawrence, R. Wes; Hu, Yongxiang; Min, Qilong

    2015-01-01

    This work studies the potential of monitoring changes in tropical extreme rainfall events such as tropical storms from space using a Differential-absorption BArometric Radar (DiBAR) operating at 50-55 gigahertz O2 absorption band to remotely measure sea surface air pressure. Air pressure is among the most important variables that affect atmospheric dynamics, and currently can only be measured by limited in-situ observations over oceans. Analyses show that with the proposed radar the errors in instantaneous (averaged) pressure estimates can be as low as approximately 5 millibars (approximately 1 millibar) under all weather conditions. With these sea level pressure measurements, the forecasts, analyses and understanding of these extreme events in both short and long time scales can be improved. Severe weathers, especially hurricanes, are listed as one of core areas that need improved observations and predictions in WCRP (World Climate Research Program) and NASA Decadal Survey (DS) and have major impacts on public safety and national security through disaster mitigation. Since the development of the DiBAR concept about a decade ago, our team has made substantial progress in advancing the concept. Our feasibility assessment clearly shows the potential of sea surface barometry using existing radar technologies. We have developed a DiBAR system design, fabricated a Prototype-DiBAR (P-DiBAR) for proof-of-concept, conducted lab, ground and airborne P-DiBAR tests. The flight test results are consistent with our instrumentation goals. Observational system simulation experiments for space DiBAR performance show substantial improvements in tropical storm predictions, not only for the hurricane track and position but also for the hurricane intensity. DiBAR measurements will lead us to an unprecedented level of the prediction and knowledge on tropical extreme rainfall weather and climate conditions.

  2. Changes in Seasonal Cycle and Extremes in China during the Period 1960—2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Zhongwei; XIA Jiangjiang; QIAN Cheng; ZHOU Wen

    2011-01-01

    Recent trends in seasonal cycles in China are analyzed, based on a homogenized datnset of daily temperatures at 541 stations during the period 1960-2008. Several indices are defined for describing the key features of a seasonal cycle, including local winter/summer (LW/LS) periods and local spring/autumn phase (LSP/LAP). The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is applied to determine the indices for each year. The LW period was found to have shortened by 2-6 d (10 yr)-1, mainly due to an earlier end to winter conditions, with the LW mean temperature having increased by 0.2°C-0.4°C (10 yr)-1, over almost all of China. Records of the most severe climate extremes changed less than more typical winter conditions did. The LS period was found to have lengthened by 2-4 d (10 yr)-1, due to progressively earlier onsets and delayed end dates of the locally defined hot period. The LS mean temperature increased by 0.1°C-0.2°C (10 yr)-1 in most of China, except for a region in southern China centered on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast to the winter cases, the warming trend in summer was more prominent in the most extreme records than in those of more typical summer conditions. The LSP was found to have advanced significantly by about 2 d (10 yr)-1 in most of China. Changes in the autumn phase were less prominent. Relatively rapid changes happened in the 1980s for most of the regional mean indices dealing with winter and in the 1990s for those dealing with summer.

  3. Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

    P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

  4. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

    2016-02-01

    In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

  5. Contemporary changes in precipitation extremes in Poland in comparison to changes in other parts of Baltic Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibig, Joanna; Jędruszkiewicz, Joanna

    2015-04-01

    The aim of the paper is detection and attribution of changes in precipitation extremes in Poland on the ground of similar changes in the rest of Baltic Sea Basin. The indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are computed for a number of stations from Poland and surrounding countries. Among them are: Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day), monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), pricipitation intensity index(RRw,) annual number of days with daily precipitation ≥ 10mm and ≥ 20mm (R10mm and R20mm), maximum length of dry spell (CDD), maximum length of wet spell (CWD), annual total from days when daily total is equal at least 95 percentile and 99 percentile calculated in reference period 1961-1990 from daily totals equal at leat 1 mm (R95pTOT and R99pTOT). The daily precipitation records from more than hundred stations from the period 1951-2012 were used. The changes in annual values and their variability are analysed. The regions of similar changes are distinguished both for Poland and for the whole Baltic Sea Region. In the second part of the paper the attribution of large scale mechanisms causing detected changes is planned. The set of possible large scale predictors is prepared. Among them are indices of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the European-North Atlantic Region: the North Atlantic Oscillation index, The Scandinavian index, the East Atlantic index, and the Atlantic Multiannual Oscillation. Additionally the large scale fields of sea level pressure and humidity and temperature from low troposphere are used. The records of indices were taken from NCDC (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc). The large scale fields data were taken from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Among the methodologies used to detect the mechanisms of precipitation extreme changes are: correlation analysis, composites and Canonical Correlation Analysis. The work is supported by grant 2012/05/B/ST10/00945 founded by

  6. Differences between Changes in Extreme and Mean Sea Levels and Planning Allowances for Coastal Protection for the Extremes of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Philip; Hunter, John; Antony, Charls; Unnikrishnan, Alakkat

    2016-04-01

    Previous studies of changes in extreme sea levels around the world during the past few decades have shown that they largely parallel those in mean sea levels, although with some exceptions at individual stations or in particular regions. In the present study, we have used a much larger data set of high-frequency sea level data from a global set of tide gauges in order to investigate the reasons for the exceptions in greater detail, including the role of the major modes of climate variability. The global data set is called GESLA-2 (Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis Version 2) which contains major improvements over the earlier GESLA-1 version (Menendez and Woodworth, JGR 2010) A special study of extreme sea levels is performed using data from India which, for various reasons, are not included in GESLA-2. In addition, the much larger temporal and spatial coverage of GESLA-2 is used to further update the coastal 'allowances' for future sea level rise presented by Hunter et al. (Ocean Engineering 2013), and updated in the IPCC AR5, in which guidelines are given for raising coastal defences for a given scenario of future sea level rise at stations where the climatology of extreme sea levels is known.

  7. Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

    2016-06-01

    To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032-2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June-August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. Perhaps the changes of some wet extremes could be verified partly through changes of annual precipitation due to their high consistence.

  8. Evolution of extreme temperatures over western Iberia; reporting on recent changes and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Santo, Fátima E.

    2010-05-01

    We report on changes in surface air temperature extremes over mainland Portugal during the period 1941-2006 using daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) from 23 of the most reliable Portuguese station records. Here we have used indices corresponding to the number of days above the 90th and below the 10th percentile for both Tmax and Tmin. This allowed us, to compute trends for the entire period of data (1941-2006) as well as for two consecutive 31-year periods: 1945-1975 (relative cooling period) and 1976-2006 (relative warming period), based on results found by Karl et al, 2000. The most striking results are related with the last period (1976-2006) that reveal a significant increase in extreme heat events for both spring and summer seasons, and a decrease in extreme cold events in winter. In the second part of this work we present an analysis of climate change over Portugal simulated by the Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3) with data obtained from Project PRUDENCE. The ability of the model to reproduce the present climate (1961-1990) is tested and evaluated. For this purpose, values of Tmax and Tmin of all 23 climatological weather stations (1961-1990 climate normals) were aggregated into a new time series. Additionally we have computed the seasonal percentiles in 1% steps (ranging from 1% to 99%). For comparison purposes we have aggregated HadRM3 values into a new time series averaging grid points located closest to the 23 climatological weather stations considered, and computed the corresponding seasonal percentiles in 1% steps. This procedure allowed an objective comparison between the two probability distributions (climatological and simulated by the model), using standard q-q plots. Finally we have evaluated changes of probability distributions for future climate projections under the IPCC emission scenarios (B2 and A2), for the period between 2071-2100 when compared to the present climate (1961-1990) simulated by the model. The

  9. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  10. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

    2017-01-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

  11. Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Krapesch

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

  12. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  13. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A.; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S.; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; MacKinnon, James L.

    2014-01-01

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change. PMID:24535397

  14. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  15. Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Cheng Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of “considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC” can be realized by the year 2025.

  16. Impact of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Upper Basin of the Yellow River Basin of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To reveal the revolution law of hydrologic extremes in the next 50 years and analyze the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes, the following main works were carried on: firstly, the long duration (15 d, 30 d, and 60 d rainfall extremes according to observed time-series and forecast time-series by dynamical climate model product (BCC-CSM-1.1 were deduced, respectively, on the basis that the quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes was conducted; secondly, the SWAT model was used to deduce design flood with the input of design rainfall for the next 50 years. On this basis, quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on long duration flood volume extremes was conducted. It indicates that (1 the value of long duration rainfall extremes for given probabilities (1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years and (2 long duration flood volume extremes of given probabilities of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years. The conclusions may provide technical supports for basin level planning of flood control and hydropower production.

  17. Refinement of the tripartite influence model for men: dual body image pathways to body change behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylka, Tracy L

    2011-06-01

    Although muscularity and body fat concerns are central to conceptualizing men's body image, they have not been examined together within existing structural models. This study refined the tripartite influence model (Thompson, Heinberg, Altabe, & Tantleff-Dunn, 1999) by including dual body image pathways (muscularity and body fat dissatisfaction) to engagement in muscular enhancement and disordered eating behaviors, respectively, and added dating partners as a source of social influence. Latent variable structural equation modeling analyses supported this quadripartite model in 473 undergraduate men. Nonsignificant paths were trimmed and two unanticipated paths were added. Muscularity dissatisfaction and body fat dissatisfaction represented dual body image pathways to men's engagement in muscularity enhancement behaviors and disordered eating behaviors, respectively. Pressures to be mesomorphic from friends, family, media, and dating partners made unique contributions to the model. Internalization of the mesomorphic ideal, muscularity dissatisfaction, and body fat dissatisfaction played key meditational roles within the model.

  18. Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Joseph T; Baker, Philip R A; Minett, Geoffrey M; Bieuzen, Francois; Stewart, Ian B; Bleakley, Chris

    2015-09-18

    Recovery strategies are often used with the intention of preventing or minimising muscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts.The searches were run in August 2015. We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity. We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64

  19. A Clinically Relevant Method of Analyzing Continuous Change in Robotic Upper Extremity Chronic Stroke Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Crystal L; Du, Yue; Conroy, Susan S; Krebs, H Igo; Wittenberg, George F; Bever, Christopher T; Whitall, Jill

    2016-09-01

    Robots designed for rehabilitation of the upper extremity after stroke facilitate high rates of repetition during practice of movements and record precise kinematic data, providing a method to investigate motor recovery profiles over time. To determine how motor recovery profiles during robotic interventions provide insight into improving clinical gains. A convenience sample (n = 22), from a larger randomized control trial, was taken of chronic stroke participants completing 12 sessions of arm therapy. One group received 60 minutes of robotic therapy (Robot only) and the other group received 45 minutes on the robot plus 15 minutes of translation-to-task practice (Robot + TTT). Movement time was assessed using the robot without powered assistance. Analyses (ANOVA, random coefficient modeling [RCM] with 2-term exponential function) were completed to investigate changes across the intervention, between sessions, and within a session. Significant improvement (P stroke robotic interventions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Multidecadal changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events in Uruguay and the general atmospheric circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renom, Madeleine; Barreiro, Marcelo [Universidad de la Republica, Unidad de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Montevideo (Uruguay); Rusticucci, Matilde [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2011-12-15

    We analyze changes in the relationship between extreme temperature events and the large scale atmospheric circulation before and after the 1976 climate shift. To do so we first constructed a set of two temperature indices that describe the occurrence of warm nights (TN90) and cold nights (TN10) based on a long daily observed minimum temperature database that spans the period 1946-2005, and then divided the period into two subperiods of 30 years each (1946-1975 and 1976-2005). We focus on summer (TN10) and winter (TN90) seasons. During austral summer before 1976 the interannual variability of cold nights was characterized by a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with a cyclonic anomaly centered off Uruguay that favoured the entrance of cold air from the south. After 1976 cold nights are associated not with the SAM, but with an isolated vortex at upper levels over South Eastern South America. During austral winter before 1976, the El Nino phenomenon dominated the interannual variability of warm nights through an increase in the northerly warm flow into Uruguay. However, after 1976 the El Nino connection weakened and the variability of warm nights is dominated by a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly located in the South Atlantic and a low pressure center over South America. This configuration also strengthens the northward flow of warm air into Uruguay. Our results suggest that changes in El Nino evolution after 1976 may have played a role in altering the relationship between temperature extreme events in Uruguay and the atmospheric circulation. (orig.)

  1. Searching for evidence of changes in extreme rainfall indices in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muluneh, Alemayehu; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Keesstra, Saskia; Stroosnijder, Leo

    2016-02-01

    Extreme rainfall events have serious implications for economic sectors with a close link to climate such as agriculture and food security. This holds true in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia where communities rely on highly climate-sensitive rainfed subsistence farming for livelihoods. This study investigates changes in ten extreme rainfall indices over a period of 40 years (1970-2009) using 14 meteorological stations located in the CRV. The CRV consists of three landscape units: the valley floor, the escarpments, and the highlands all of which are considered in our data analysis. The Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June-September) seasons are also considered in the analysis. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trends of the rainfall indices. The results indicated that at the annual time scale, more than half (57 %) of the stations showed significant trends in total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10mm). Only 7-35 % of stations showed significant trends, for the other rainfall indices. Spatially, the valley floor received increasing annual rainfall while the escarpments and the highlands received decreasing annual rainfall over the last 40 years. During Belg, 50 % of the stations showed significant increases in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) in all parts of the CRV. However, most other rainfall indices during Belg showed no significant changes. During Kiremt, considering both significant and non-significant trends, almost all rainfall indices showed an increasing trend in the valley floor and a decreasing trend in the escarpment and highlands. During Belg and Kiremt, the CDD generally showed increasing tendency in the CRV.

  2. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  3. Extreme secular excitation of eccentricity inside mean motion resonance. Small bodies driven into star-grazing orbits by planetary perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichierri, Gabriele; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Lai, Dong

    2017-09-01

    Context. It is well known that asteroids and comets fall into the Sun. Metal pollution of white dwarfs and transient spectroscopic signatures of young stars like β-Pic provide growing evidence that extra solar planetesimals can attain extreme orbital eccentricities and fall into their parent stars. Aims: We aim to develop a general, implementable, semi-analytical theory of secular eccentricity excitation of small bodies (planetesimals) in mean motion resonances with an eccentric planet valid for arbitrary values of the eccentricities and including the short-range force due to General Relativity. Methods: Our semi-analytic model for the restricted planar three-body problem does not make use of series expansion and therefore is valid for any eccentricity value and semi-major axis ratio. The model is based on the application of the adiabatic principle, which is valid when the precession period of the longitude of pericentre of the planetesimal is much longer than the libration period in the mean motion resonance. In resonances of order larger than 1 this is true except for vanishingly small eccentricities. We provide prospective users with a Mathematica notebook with implementation of the model allowing direct use. Results: We confirm that the 4:1 mean motion resonance with a moderately eccentric (e' ≲ 0.1) planet is the most powerful one to lift the eccentricity of planetesimals from nearly circular orbits to star-grazing ones. However, if the planet is too eccentric, we find that this resonance is unable to pump the planetesimal's eccentricity to a very high value. The inclusion of the General Relativity effect imposes a condition on the mass of the planet to drive the planetesimals into star-grazing orbits. For a planetesimal at 1 AU around a solar mass star (or white dwarf), we find a threshold planetary mass of about 17 Earth masses. We finally derive an analytical formula for this critical mass. Conclusions: Planetesimals can easily fall into the central star

  4. Fifty hertz extremely low-frequency electromagnetic field causes changes in redox and differentiative status in neuroblastoma cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falone, Stefano; Grossi, Maria R; Cinque, Benedetta; D'Angelo, Barbara; Tettamanti, Enzo; Cimini, Annamaria; Di Ilio, Carmine; Amicarelli, Fernanda

    2007-01-01

    The current study was designed to establish whether extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields might affect neuronal homeostasis through redox-sensitive mechanisms. To this end, intracellular reactive oxygen species production, antioxidant and glutathione-based detoxifying capability and genomic integrity after extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields exposure were investigated. Moreover, we also studied potential extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields-dependent changes in the proliferative and differentiative cellular status. Results seem to support redox-mediated extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields effects on biological models as, although no major oxidative damage was detected, after exposure we observed a positive modulation of antioxidant enzymatic expression, as well as a significant increase in reduced glutathione level, indicating a shift of cellular environment towards a more reduced state. In addition, extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields treatment induced a more differentiated phenotype as well as an increased expression in peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor isotype beta, a class of transcription factors related to neuronal differentiation and cellular stress response. As second point, to deepen how extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields treatment could affect neuroblastoma cell antioxidant capacity, we examined the extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields-dependent modifications of cell susceptibility to pro-oxidants. Results clearly showed that 50 Hz extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields exposure reduces cell tolerance towards oxidative attacks.

  5. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Taye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

    The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  6. Effects of decreasing acid deposition and climate change on acid extremes in an upland stream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Evans

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the major chemical processes leading to acid extremes in a small, moorland stream in mid-Wales, UK, which has been monitored since 1979. Results suggest that base cation (mainly calcium dilution, the "sea-salt effect", and elevated nitrate pulses, are the major causes of seasonal/episodic minima in acid neutralising capacity (ANC, and that the relative importance of these drivers has remained approximately constant during 25 years of decreasing acid deposition and associated long-term chemical recovery. Many of the chemical variations causing short-term reductions in stream acidity, particularly base cation dilution and organic acid increases, are closely related to changes in water-flowpath and therefore to stream discharge. Changes in the observed pH-discharge relationship over time indicate that high-flow pH has increased more rapidly than mean-flow pH, and therefore that episodes have decreased in magnitude since 1980. However a two-box application of the dynamic model MAGIC, whilst reproducing this trend, suggests that it will not persist in the long term, with mean ANC continuing to increase until 2100, but the ANC of the upper soil (the source of relatively acid water during high-flow episodes stabilising close to zero beyond 2030. With climate change predicted to lead to an increase in maximum flows in the latter half of the century, high-flow related acid episodes may actually become more rather than less severe in the long term, although the model suggests that this effect may be small. Two other predicted climatic changes could also detrimentally impact on acid episodes: increased severity of winter "sea-salt" episodes due to higher wind speeds during winter storms; and larger sulphate pulses due to oxidation of reduced sulphur held in organic soils, during more extreme summer droughts. At the Gwy, the near-coastal location and relatively small extent of peat soils suggest that sea-salt episodes may have the

  7. Friendship clique and peer influences on body image concerns, dietary restraint, extreme weight-loss behaviors, and binge eating in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, S J; Schutz, H K; Wertheim, E H; Muir, S L

    1999-05-01

    This study explored friendship variables in relation to body image, dietary restraint, extreme weight-loss behaviors (EWEBs), and binge eating in adolescent girls. From 523 girls, 79 friendship cliques were identified using social network analysis. Participants completed questionnaires that assessed body image concerns, eating, friendship relations, and psychological family, and media variables. Similarity was greater for within than for between friendship cliques for body image concerns, dietary restraint, and EWLBs, but not for binge eating. Cliques high in body image concerns and dieting manifested these concerns in ways consistent with a high weight/shape-preoccupied subculture. Friendship attitudes contributed significantly to the prediction of individual body image concern and eating behaviors. Use of EWLBs by friends predicted an individual's own level of use.

  8. Eating Regulation Styles, Appearance Schemas, and Body Satisfaction Predict Changes in Body Fat for Emerging Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Ali Zaremba; Keiley, Margaret K.; Ryan, Aubrey E.; Radomski, Juliana Groves; Gropper, Sareen S.; Connell, Lenda Jo; Simmons, Karla P.; Ulrich, Pamela V.

    2012-01-01

    Obesity and high body fat percentages are a major public health issue. The percentage of obese and overweight Americans has increased over the past 30 years. On average, overweight individuals with higher percent body fat than normal weight individuals are at increased risk for numerous negative outcomes both physically and mentally. A prime time…

  9. Understanding Adaptive Capacity in Real Estate and the Built Environment: Climate Change and Extreme Weather in New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keenan, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change well underway, cities worldwide are struggling to develop and apply knowledge that will help advance social, environmental and economic adaptation to extreme weather and changing ecologies. Nowhere is this need more pressing than in the design, development and management of the b

  10. Impacts of a changing climate on a century of extreme flood regime of northwest Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rouillard

    2014-10-01

    to be most significant. Here, we sought to identify the main hydroclimatic determinants of the strongly episodic flood regime of a large catchment in the semi-arid, subtropical northwest of Australia and to establish the background of hydrologic variability for the region over the last century. We used a monthly sequence of satellite images to quantify surface water expression on the Fortescue Marsh, the largest water feature of inland northwest Australia, from 1988 to 2012. We used this sequence together with instrumental rainfall data to build a multiple linear model and reconstruct monthly history of floods and droughts since 1912. We found that severe and intense regional rainfall events, as well as the sequence of recharge events both within and between years, determine surface water expression on the floodplain (i.e., total rainfall, number of rain days and carried-over inundated area; R2adj = 0.79; p value ERMSP = 56 km2. The most severe inundation (~1000 km2 over the last century was recorded in 2000. The Fortescue Marsh was completely dry for 32% of all years, for periods of up to four consecutive years. Extremely wet years (seven of the 100 years caused the Marsh to remain inundated for up to 12 months; only 25% of years (9% of all months had floods of greater than 300 km2. Duration, severity and frequency of inundations between 1999 and 2006 were above average and unprecedented when compared to the last century. While there is high inter-annual variability in the system, changes to the flooding regime over the last 20 years suggest that the wetland will become more persistent in response to increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events for the region, which in turn will likely impact on the structure and functioning of this highly specialized ecosystem.

  11. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    increased flows, with strong seasonal changes. The results of the DHR analysis show that hydro-climatic extremes are characterized by oscillatory behavior at different time scales. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The climate, water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  12. CHANGES IN FREQUENCY, PERSISTENCE AND INTENSITY OF EXTREME HIGH-TEMPERATURE EVENTS IN THE ROMANIAN PLAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRAGOTĂ CARMEN-SOFIA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent summer heat waves (2003, 2010 had a strong socio-economic impact in different parts of the continent by means of crop shortfalls and forest fires. Sustained hot days became more frequent in the recent decades in many European regions, affecting human health and leading to additional deaths. This signal has been outlined in many studies conducted in Romania, suggesting that the southern region of Romania is particularly subject to large temperature increase. This work investigates the changing annual and seasonal heat waves at regional scale of the Romanian Plain, over period 1961-2014. Daily maximum temperature recorded at six weather stations available from the ECA&D project (European Climate Assessment and Datasets were analyzed. The changes in the seasonal frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves were studied using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test, as recommended by the scientific expert team on climate change detection. The likelyhood of higher maximum temperatures rise, particularly after the mid 1980s, and the changes in the upper tail of the probability density functions of these temperatures, within the extreme domain (beyond the 95% percentile level, explain the persistence and intensity of heat waves. The upward trends are dominant most of the year, and many of the calculated decadal slopes were found statistically significant (relative to the 5% level, proving an ongoing and strong warming all over the region. Our findings are in good agreement with several recent studies carried out at European and national scale and pledge for further scientific analyses i.e. heat stress impact on public health and agriculture.

  13. NONSULFATED SULFAKININ CHANGES METABOLIC PARAMETERS OF INSECT FAT BODY MITOCHONDRIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slocinska, Malgorzata; Antos-Krzeminska, Nina; Rosinski, Grzegorz; Jarmuszkiewicz, Wieslawa

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the effect of neuropeptide, the nonsulfated sulfakinin (SK) Zopat-SK-1 (pETSDDYGHLRFa) on the mitochondrial oxidative metabolism in the Zophobas atratus larval fat body. Mitochondria were isolated from beetle fat bodies 2 and 24 h after hormone injection. The administration of 20 pmol of Zopat-SK-1 to feeding larvae led to decreased mitochondrial oxidative activities in larval fat body. Diminished activities of citrate synthase and the cytochrome pathway, that is, nonphosphorylating and phosphorylating respiration during succinate oxidation, were observed. However, the effect of Zopat-SK-1 was more pronounced in fat body of insects after 24 h since hormone application. In hormone-treated larval fat bodies, mitochondrial respiration was decreased at the level of respiratory chain and the TCA cycle as well as at the level of mitochondrial biogenesis, as indicated by decreased activities of mitochondrial marker enzymes in fat body homogenates. The inhibition of succinate oxidation may indicate the role of Zopat-SK-1 in the regulation of mitochondrial complex II activity. Moreover, decreased respiratory chain activity was accompanied by the reduced activity of mitochondrial energy-dissipating pathway, uncoupling protein 4. The observed decrease in mitochondrial oxidative metabolism may reflect the Zopat-SK-1-induced reduction in the metabolic rate of larval fat body linked to actual energetic demands of animal. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Changing Body Image and Well-Being: Following the Experience of Massive Weight Loss and Body Contouring Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo Gilmartin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the perception of changing body image and well-being for patients who had undergone plastic surgery following massive weight loss. The exploratory, qualitative study was undertaken with 20 patients from one teaching hospital in the south of England. Semi-structured interviews were carried out and a thematic analysis of the data undertaken. The results provide important insights regarding body contouring influencing body image change and the adjustment process involved. The ability to pursue self-esteem and the accruing social benefits is emphasized in the interrelated sub themes including social acceptance, undoing depression and sexual vitality. Body contouring surgery following massive weight loss appears to facilitate improvement in body image and well-being. Adjustment to the changing body image is both empowering and challenging. Supportive educational programmes need to be developed to assist this transition to a more positive body image and appreciation; these could usefully include access to and involvement with patient support groups.

  15. Opto-mechanisms design of extreme-ultraviolet camera onboard Chang E lunar lander.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhaohui; Chen, Bo; Song, Kefei; Wang, Xiaodong; Liu, Shijie; Yang, Liang; Hu, Qinglong; Qiao, Ke; Zhang, Liping; Wu, Guodong; Yu, Ping

    2014-06-30

    The extreme-ultraviolet camera mounted on the Lander of China Chang-E lunar exploration project launched in 2013 is the first instrument used to imaging from the lunar surface to the whole plasmasphere around the earth. Taking into account both the lunar environment conditions and the weight and volume constraints, a single spherical mirror and a spherical microchannel plate detector make up the compact optical system. An optimized opto-mechanical design was presented using Finite Element Analysis Model, and the detail design for the important assemblies of the 2-axis platform, the primary mirror, the aperture door mechanism and MCP detector were all specially addressed for their environmental adaptability and reliability. Tests of mechanical characteristics have demonstrated that the position and pointing accuracy and its stability meets the operation requirements of 2'. Vibration results have shown that the EUVC has adequate stiffness and strength safety margin to survive in launch and the moon environments. The imaging performance with the resolution of 0.08° is measured after vibration, in agreement with the predicted performance.

  16. Thermal discomfort with cold extremities in relation to age, gender, and body mass index in a random sample of a Swiss urban population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orgül Selim

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this epidemiological study was to investigate the relationship of thermal discomfort with cold extremities (TDCE to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI in a Swiss urban population. Methods In a random population sample of Basel city, 2,800 subjects aged 20-40 years were asked to complete a questionnaire evaluating the extent of cold extremities. Values of cold extremities were based on questionnaire-derived scores. The correlation of age, gender, and BMI to TDCE was analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results A total of 1,001 women (72.3% response rate and 809 men (60% response rate returned a completed questionnaire. Statistical analyses revealed the following findings: Younger subjects suffered more intensely from cold extremities than the elderly, and women suffered more than men (particularly younger women. Slimmer subjects suffered significantly more often from cold extremities than subjects with higher BMIs. Conclusions Thermal discomfort with cold extremities (a relevant symptom of primary vascular dysregulation occurs at highest intensity in younger, slimmer women and at lowest intensity in elderly, stouter men.

  17. Nuclear bodies domain changes with microspore reprogramming to embryogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JM Seguí-Simarro

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We analysed the presence of nuclear bodies and particularly Cajal bodies during representative stages of gametophytic and haploid embryogenic development in isolated microspore and anther cultures of a model system (Brassica napus cv. Topas and a recalcitrant species (Capsicum annuum L. var. Yolo Wonder B. The nuclear bodies domain is involved on several important roles on nuclear metabolism, and Cajal bodies are specifically involved on the storage and maturation of both snRNPs and snoRNPs, as well as other splicing factors, necessary for mRNA and pre-rRNA processing, but not directly on the transcription. In this study, immunofluorescence and immunogold labelling with anti-trimethylguanosine antibodies against the specific cap of snRNAs, ultrastructural and cytochemical analysis were performed on cryoprocessed samples at confocal and electron microscopy respectively. Results showed that Cajal bodies increase during the early stages of microspore embryogenic development (young pro-embryos, compared to microspore and pollen development. Our results suggest that Cajal bodies may have a role in the transcriptionally active, proliferative stages that characterise early microspore embryogenic development.

  18. Bottom-up perspectives of extreme event and climate change threats to water quality: Drinking water utilities in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekstrom, J.; Klasic, M.; Fencl, A.; Lubell, M.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, E.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme events impact water quality, which pose serious challenges for drinking water systems. Such extreme events, including wildfire, storm surge, and other weather-related extremes, are projected to increase under a changing climate. It remains unclear what climate change information can support water managers in preparing for more extreme events. Exploring this topic requires understanding the larger question: What is the role of scientific information in adapting to climate change? We present two parts of a three-year study geared to understand whether, where, why and in what way climate information (or the lack of) is used or needed to support long term water quality planning for extreme events. In 2015 we surveyed California drinking water utilities and found a wide range of extreme event/water quality issues, perspectives on the severity of climate change threats, drought impacts and trusted information sources relating to water quality concerns. Approximately 70% of 259 respondents had recently experienced extreme weather-related events that worsen or trigger water quality. Survey results informed development of a case study analysis to gain a more in-depth understanding of what type of - or when - extreme events information could support climate adaptation. Projections of extreme events are often not in a form that is useable for water quality planning. Relative to supply-related projections, water quality has received much less scientific attention, leaving it an assumed scientific information gap and need for management. The question remains whether filling this gap would help adaptation, whom it would help, and in what way. Based on interviews with water systems in Summer 2016, our case study analyses reinforce that extreme events threaten water quality in many ways; largely as secondary impacts of climate change. Secondary impacts involve disinfection byproducts, increasing salinity in the Delta, and the use of lower quality sources. The most common

  19. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  20. Multi-model projection of July-August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongmei; Feng, Lei; Zhou, Tianjun

    2011-03-01

    Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ˜50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ˜2-3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

  1. Manipulation of the Body Schema - Unilateral Manual Stimulation of Lower Extremity Influences Weight Distribution in Standing Position

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Læssøe, Uffe; Barth, Lasse; Skeie, Sindre

    2017-01-01

    Clinical experience advocates sensory stimulation to increase the body sensation and adjust the body schema, which may be disturbed in some patients. Unilateral massage may affect the body midline orientation, but little evidence is available to support the effect of this practice. Twenty...

  2. Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Melo-Gonçalves, Paulo; Rocha, Alfredo; Santos, João A.

    2016-08-01

    grid points where a significant climate change is found with a predefined low uncertainty. Results highlight the importance of taking into account the spread across an ensemble of climate simulations when making inferences on climate change from the ensemble-mean or ensemble-median. This is specially true for climate projections of extreme indices such CDD and R95T. For PRCTOT, a decrease in annual precipitation over the entire peninsula is projected, specially in the north and northwest where it can decrease down to 400 mm by the middle of the 21st century. This decrease is expected to occur throughout the year except in winter. Annual CDD is projected to increase till the middle of the 21st century overall the peninsula, reaching more than three weeks in the southwest. This increase is projected to occur in summer and spring. For Rx5day, a decrease is projected to occur during spring and autumn in the major part of the peninsula, and during summer in northern Iberia. Finally, R95T is projected to decrease around 20% in northern Iberia in summer, and around 15% in the south-southwest in autumn.

  3. Effect of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall intensity–frequency–duration relationships: a case study of Melbourne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Yilmaz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The increased frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events due to anthropogenic climate change, and decadal and multi-decadal climate variability question the stationary climate assumption. The possible violation of stationarity in climate can cause erroneous estimation of design rainfalls derived from extreme rainfall frequency analysis. This may result in significant consequences for infrastructure and flood protection projects since design rainfalls are essential input for design of these projects. Therefore, there is a need to conduct frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in the context of non-stationarity, when non-stationarity is present in extreme rainfall events. A methodology consisting of, threshold selection, extreme rainfall data (peaks over threshold data construction, trend and non-stationarity analysis, and stationary and non-stationary Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD models was developed in this paper to investigate trends and non-stationarity in extreme rainfall events, and potential impacts of climate change and variability on Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IFD relationships. The developed methodology was successfully implemented using rainfall data from an observation station in Melbourne (Australia for storm durations ranging from 6 min to 72 h. Although statistically significant trends were detected in extreme rainfall data for storm durations of 30 min, and 3 and 48 h, statistical non-stationarity tests and non-stationary GPD models did not indicate non-stationarity for these storm durations and other storm durations. It was also found that the stationary GPD models were capable of fitting extreme rainfall data for all storm durations. Furthermore, the IFD analysis showed that urban flash flood producing hourly rainfall intensities have increased over time.

  4. The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling; Wang, Dagang; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Erfanian, Amir; Yu, Miao; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Parr, Dana T.

    2017-01-01

    Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

  5. Predicting metabolic adaptation, body weight change, and energy intake in humans

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hall, Kevin D

    2010-01-01

    .... Here, I present the first computational model that simulates how diet perturbations result in adaptations of fuel selection and energy expenditure that predict body weight and composition changes...

  6. Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, Nathalie; Seabrook, Leonie; Maron, Martine; Law, Bradley S; Dawson, Terence P; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive A

    2015-09-01

    Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed

  7. Extreme dNTP pool changes and hypermutability in dcd ndk strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Lawrence; Kang, Tina Manzhu; Yuan, Jessica; Mihora, Danielle; Becket, Elinne; Maslowska, Katarzyna H; Schaaper, Roel M; Miller, Jeffrey H

    2016-01-01

    Cells lacking deoxycytidine deaminase (DCD) have been shown to have imbalances in the normal dNTP pools that lead to multiple phenotypes, including increased mutagenesis, increased sensitivity to oxidizing agents, and to a number of antibiotics. In particular, there is an increased dCTP pool, often accompanied by a decreased dTTP pool. In the work presented here, we show that double mutants of Escherichia coli lacking both DCD and NDK (nucleoside diphosphate kinase) have even more extreme imbalances of dNTPs than mutants lacking only one or the other of these enzymes. In particular, the dCTP pool rises to very high levels, exceeding even the cellular ATP level by several-fold. This increased level of dCTP, coupled with more modest changes in other dNTPs, results in exceptionally high mutation levels. The high mutation levels are attenuated by the addition of thymidine. The results corroborate the critical importance of controlling DNA precursor levels for promoting genome stability. We also show that the addition of certain exogenous nucleosides can influence replication errors in DCD-proficient strains that are deficient in mismatch repair.

  8. Polar Microalgae: New Approaches towards Understanding Adaptations to an Extreme and Changing Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Barbara R; Mock, Thomas

    2014-01-28

    Polar Regions are unique and highly prolific ecosystems characterized by extreme environmental gradients. Photosynthetic autotrophs, the base of the food web, have had to adapt physiological mechanisms to maintain growth, reproduction and metabolic activity despite environmental conditions that would shut-down cellular processes in most organisms. High latitudes are characterized by temperatures below the freezing point, complete darkness in winter and continuous light and high UV in the summer. Additionally, sea-ice, an ecological niche exploited by microbes during the long winter seasons when the ocean and land freezes over, is characterized by large salinity fluctuations, limited gas exchange, and highly oxic conditions. The last decade has been an exciting period of insights into the molecular mechanisms behind adaptation of microalgae to the cryosphere facilitated by the advancement of new scientific tools, particularly "omics" techniques. We review recent insights derived from genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics studies. Genes, proteins and pathways identified from these highly adaptable polar microbes have far-reaching biotechnological applications. Furthermore, they may provide insights into life outside this planet, as well as glimpses into the past. High latitude regions also have disproportionately large inputs into global biogeochemical cycles and are the region most sensitive to climate change.

  9. Energy absorption, lean body mass, and total body fat changes during 5 weeks of continuous bed rest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krebs, Jean M.; Evans, Harlan; Kuo, Mike C.; Schneider, Victor S.; Leblanc, Adrian D.

    1990-01-01

    The nature of the body composition changes due to inactivity was examined together with the question of whether these changes are secondary to changes in energy absorption. Volunteers were 15 healthy males who lived on a metabolic research ward under close staff supervision for 11 weeks. Subjects were ambulatory during the first six weeks and remained in continuous bed rest for the last five weeks of the study. Six male volunteers (age 24-61 years) were selected for body composition measurements. Nine different male volunteers (age 21-50 years) were selected for energy absorption measurements. The volunteers were fed weighed conventional foods on a constant 7-d rotation menu. The average daily caloric content was 2,592 kcal. Comparing the five weeks of continuous bed rest with the previous six weeks of ambulation, it was observed that there was no change in energy absorption or total body weight during bed rest, but a significant decrease in lean body mass and a significant increase in total body fat (p less than 0.05).

  10. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-12-23

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  11. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace I. Davies

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

  12. Climate change scenarios of extreme temperatures and atmospheric humidity for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: atejeda@uv.mx; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2008-10-15

    The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano

  13. Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

  14. Human beings' adaptability to extreme environmental changes from medical and physical points of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarova, Olga; Ragulskaya, Maria; Dimitrova, Svetla; Safaraly-Oghlu Babayev, Elchin; Samsonov, Sergey; Med. Dimitry Markov, Of; Nazarova, Of Med. Olga N.; Rudenchik, Evgeny

    The question about features of human reaction on the sharp environmental physical activity (EPA) changes is considered by international group of physicists and physicians on the base of results of monitoring of human health state in different cities spread on latitude and longitude. The typical reaction of human body on the influences, exceeding the organisms' ability to adaptation, is of stress-reaction character. From medical point of view there is no significant difference for human body -what external (EPA) agent shocked an organism (emotional or some physical threats). First attempt of the organism to restore its homeostasis is stress-reaction, being universal for many stress-factors. Its main stages (such as alarm, resistance, and exhaustion) are detectable by different medical equipments, but we tried to find universal, non-traumatic method of daily measurements, enough sensitive and appropriate for observation of people reaction both on weather and space weather (geomagnetic activity) changes. The experiment was based on a method of electrical conductivity measurements of biologically active (acupunctural) points of human skin. The used method (electroacupunctural method by Dr. R.Voll) is very sensitive to current state of an organism and characterize the functional condition of different organs and systems of human body and allows to express so-called "group's health status" in the units, suitable for comparison with meteorological and heliogeophysical parameters. We conduct the parallel investigations as a part of collaborative study in different geographic latitudes-longitudes (Baku:40° 23'43"N -49° 52'56"E, Troitsk (Moscow region): 55° 28'40"N -37° 18'42"E, Yakutsk: 62° 02'00"N -129° 44'00"E). Measurements were carried out on daily basis with permanent group of functionally healthy persons (Moscow -19, Yakutsk -22, CityBaku -12 volunteers). Daily monitoring of nervous, endocrinological, lymphatic systems, blood, lungs, thick and thin intestine

  15. Secular changes in body dimensions of Royal Australian Air Force aircrew (1971-2005).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomkinson, Grant R; Clark, Adam J; Blanchonette, Peter

    2010-08-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify the secular changes in body dimensions of Royal Australian Air Force aircrew. Following corrections for methodological differences, two samples (matched for age and overall body size) of male aircrew measured in 1971 (n = 220) and 2005 (n = 220) were compared across 13 absolute and proportional body dimensions. Changes in means were expressed as standardised effect sizes and changes in distributional characteristics were expressed as the ratio of coefficients of variation and as changes in skew. Small secular increases (standardised effects sizes >0.2) in age-matched aircrew were observed for mass, height, BMI, sitting height, buttock-knee length, waist girth, hip girth and waist:hip ratio, with a small decline observed for head girth. Changes in body dimensions were not independent of changes in overall body size (except for head girth) and were not always uniform across the distribution. These changes in body size have implications for ensuring correct human-machine and human-equipment fit. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: There have been small secular changes in body dimensions of RAAF aircrew between 1971 and 2005, although these secular changes have not always been uniform across the distribution. These secular changes in body dimensions have implications for ensuring correct human-machine and human-equipment fit and underscore the need for regular anthropometric surveys.

  16. Recent changes in Georgia׳s temperature means and extremes: Annual and seasonal trends between 1961 and 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Keggenhoff

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sixteen temperature minimum and maximum series are used to quantify annual and seasonal changes in temperature means and extremes over Georgia (Southern Caucasus during the period 1961 and 2010. Along with trends in mean minimum and maximum temperature, eight indices are selected from the list of climate extreme indices as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, for studying trends in temperature extremes. Between the analysis periods 1961–2010, 1971–2010 and 1981–2010 pronounced warming trends are determined for all Georgia-averaged trends in temperature means and extremes, while all magnitudes of trends increase towards the most recent period. During 1981 and 2010, significant warming trends for annual minimum and maximum temperature at a rate of 0.39 °C (0.47 °C days/decade and particularly for the warm temperature extremes, summer days, warm days and nights and the warm spell duration index are evident, whereas warm extremes show larger trends than cold extremes. The most pronounced trends are determined for summer days 6.2 days/decade, while the warm spell duration index indicates an increase in the occurrence of warm spells by 5.4 days/decade during 1981 and 2010. In the comparison of seasonal changes in temperature means and extremes, the largest magnitudes of warming trends can be observed for temperature maximum in summer and temperature minimum in fall. Between 1981 and 2010, summer maximum temperature shows a significant warming at a rate of 0.84 °C/decade, increasing almost twice as fast as its annual trend (0.47 °C/decade. The Georgia-averaged trends for temperature minimum in fall increase by 0.59 °C/decade. Strongest significant trends in temperature extremes are identified during 1981 and 2010 for warm nights (4.6 days/decade in summer and fall as well as for warm days (5.6 days/decade in summer

  17. Glycemic index and glycemic load in relation to changes in body weight, body fat distribution, and body composition in adult Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hare-Bruun, Helle; Flint, Anne; Heitmann, Berit L

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A diet with a high glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) may promote overconsumption of energy and increase the risk of weight gain. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to investigate the relation between GI and GL of habitual diets and subsequent 6-y changes in body weight...... born in 1922, 1932, 1942, or 1952. A baseline health examination and a dietary history interview were carried out in 1987 and 1988; a follow-up health examination was performed in 1993 and 1994. RESULTS: Positive associations between GI and changes in body weight (DeltaBW), percentage body fat (Delta...... observed in men, and no significant associations with GL were observed in either sex. CONCLUSIONS: High-GI diets may lead to increases in BW, body fat mass, and WC in women, especially in sedentary women, which suggests that physical activity may protect against diet-induced weight gain. No associations...

  18. Changes in body chemical composition with age measured by total-body neutron activation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohn, S.H.; Vaswani, A.; Zanzi, I.; Aloia, J.F.; Roginsky, M.S.; Ellis, K.J.

    1976-01-01

    Total-body levels of calcium and phosphorus (reflecting skeletal mass) and total-body levels of potassium (reflecting muscle mass) were measured by neutron activation analysis in 39 men and 40 women ages 30 to 90 yr. In order to intercompare the total body calcium (TBCa) values in a heterogeneous population, such as this, it was necessary to normalize the data for skeletal size. The normalization consisted of dividing the absolute calcium level by the predicted calcium level for each individual matched to a set of critical parameters. The parameter used in the computation of normal values were age, sex, muscle mass, i.e., total body potassium (TBK) and height. For the calcium data of the women, it was necessary to add an age correction factor after the age of 55 yr. The calcium ratio (mean ratio of the predicted to measured TBCa) in men was 1.000 +- 7.8 percent and in women 0.996 +- 7.1 percent. The TBCa of normal males and females can thus be predicted to +-13 percent (at the 90 percent confidence level). An exception to this was found in males (70 to 90 yr) who exhibited a mean calcium ratio greater than 1.13. (auth)

  19. Concomitant changes in sleep duration and body weight and body composition during weight loss and 3-mo weight maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Sanne P M; Camps, Stefan G J A; Gonnissen, Hanne K J; Westerterp, Klaas R; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S

    2013-07-01

    An inverse relation between sleep duration and body mass index (BMI) has been shown. We assessed the relation between changes in sleep duration and changes in body weight and body composition during weight loss. A total of 98 healthy subjects (25 men), aged 20-50 y and with BMI (in kg/m(2)) from 28 to 35, followed a 2-mo very-low-energy diet that was followed by a 10-mo period of weight maintenance. Body weight, body composition (measured by using deuterium dilution and air-displacement plethysmography), eating behavior (measured by using a 3-factor eating questionnaire), physical activity (measured by using the validated Baecke's questionnaire), and sleep (estimated by using a questionnaire with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale) were assessed before and immediately after weight loss and 3- and 10-mo follow-ups. The average weight loss was 10% after 2 mo of dieting and 9% and 6% after 3- and 10-mo follow-ups, respectively. Daytime sleepiness and time to fall asleep decreased during weight loss. Short (≤7 h) and average (>7 to weight loss. This change in sleep duration was concomitantly negatively correlated with the change in BMI during weight loss and after the 3-mo follow-up and with the change in fat mass after the 3-mo follow-up. Sleep duration benefits from weight loss or vice versa. Successful weight loss, loss of body fat, and 3-mo weight maintenance in short and average sleepers are underscored by an increase in sleep duration or vice versa. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01015508.

  20. Thyroid hormones and changes in body weight and metabolic parameters in response to weight loss diets: the POUNDS LOST trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, G; Liang, L; Bray, G A; Qi, L; Hu, F B; Rood, J; Sacks, F M; Sun, Q

    2017-06-01

    The role of thyroid hormones in diet-induced weight loss and subsequent weight regain is largely unknown. To examine the associations between thyroid hormones and changes in body weight and resting metabolic rate (RMR) in a diet-induced weight loss setting. Data analysis was conducted among 569 overweight and obese participants aged 30-70 years with normal thyroid function participating in the 2-year Prevention of Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS) LOST randomized clinical trial. Changes in body weight and RMR were assessed during the 2-year intervention. Thyroid hormones (free triiodothyronine (T3), free thyroxine (T4), total T3, total T4 and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)), anthropometric measurements and biochemical parameters were assessed at baseline, 6 months and 24 months. Participants lost an average of 6.6 kg of body weight during the first 6 months and subsequently regained an average of 2.7 kg of body weight over the remaining period from 6 to 24 months. Baseline free T3 and total T3 were positively associated, whereas free T4 was inversely associated, with baseline body weight, body mass index and RMR. Total T4 and TSH were not associated with these parameters. Higher baseline free T3 and free T4 levels were significantly associated with a greater weight loss during the first 6 months (Pweight. Comparing extreme tertiles, the multivariate-adjusted weight loss±s.e. was -3.87±0.9 vs -5.39±0.9 kg for free T3 (Ptrend=0.02) and -4.09±0.9 vs -5.88±0.9 kg for free T4 (Ptrend=0.004). The thyroid hormones did not predict weight regain in 6-24 months. A similar pattern of associations was also observed between baseline thyroid hormones and changes in RMR. In addition, changes in free T3 and total T3 levels were positively associated with changes in body weight, RMR, body fat mass, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, triglycerides and leptin at 6 months and 24 months (all Pweight loss setting, higher baseline free T3 and free T4

  1. Projection of extreme precipitation in the context of climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai region, China

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jun Yin; Denghua Yan; Zhiyong Yang; Zhe Yuan; Yong Yuan; Cheng Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Based on the national precipitation dataset (0.5$^{\\circ }$ × 0.5$^{\\circ }$) 1961–2011, published by the National Meteorological Information Center of China and the five Global Climate Models provided by ISI-MIP, annual maximum precipitation for 1 day, 3 days and 7 days could be calculated. Extreme precipitation was fitted via Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to explore the changes of extreme precipitation with the return period of 20 years and 50 years during 1961–2000 and 2001–2050. Based on this, extreme precipitation projection in Huang-Huai-Hai region was done. The results showed that the five Global Climate Models could simulate the statistical features of extreme precipitation quite well, in which IPSL-CM5A-LR has the highest precision. Simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR indicates that precipitation with the return period of 20 years and 50 years in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, middle and lower reaches of Huaihe River and plain area of the southern Haihe River will increase considerably in the future. Extreme precipitation in some of the places will even increase by more than 30%, which means that these places will face larger flood risk and their capacity to respond to flood disasters should be improved.

  2. Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible

  3. Assessing the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature extremes on the current and future ecohydrology of grassland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.; Ocheltree, T.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events have profound impacts on water and carbon cycling. However, events of similar magnitude may have very different impacts depending upon the timing of the event in the phenological cycle. We assess these impacts of extreme daily weather events including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature using data collected from the Konza Prairie Long Term Ecological Research site in the central U.S. We utilize the long term weather and biomass collection data at the LTER site to examine the historical variability of extreme events and the impacts on annual carbon dynamics. Timescales of interactions between daily weather and fluxes are quantified through a multiscale information theoretic approach. In addition, we quantify the impacts of the timing and magnitude of extreme events through a Critical Climate Period (CCP) analysis. Results indicate a strong sensitivity to spring precipitation and summer temperature. Using six years of eddy covariance data, we can isolate more of the biophysical mechanisms governing the responses to extreme weather events. Of particular interest is the heat wave of July, 2011, where daily maximum temperatures were over 38 C for 24 consecutive days and resulted in drastically reduced above ground carbon allocation than in previous years. In addition, we employ the Agro-BGC model to assess the biophysical processes responsible for determining the response of water and carbon dynamics to extreme weather events. This is done by employing a stochastic weather generator with prescribed changes in annual precipitation and temperature conistent with GCM projections. Developing a more thorough understanding of extreme events and the differential responses due to the timing and magnitude of the events will potentially assist in the mitigation of future climate change.

  4. Telemetry pill versus rectal and esophageal temperature during extreme rates of exercise-induced core temperature change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunissen, L.P.J.; Haan, A. de; Koning, J.J. de; Daanen, H.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    Core temperature measurement with an ingestible telemetry pill has been scarcely investigated during extreme rates of temperature change, induced by short high-intensity exercise in the heat. Therefore, nine participants performed a protocol of rest, (sub)maximal cycling and recovery at 30 °C. The p

  5. Time changes with the embodiment of another's body posture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco C Nather

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the perception of presentation durations of pictures of different body postures was distorted as function of the embodied movement that originally produced these postures. Participants were presented with two pictures, one with a low-arousal body posture judged to require no movement and the other with a high-arousal body posture judged to require considerable movement. In a temporal bisection task with two ranges of standard durations (0.4/1.6 s and 2/8 s, the participants had to judge whether the presentation duration of each of the pictures was more similar to the short or to the long standard duration. The results showed that the duration was judged longer for the posture requiring more movement than for the posture requiring less movement. However the magnitude of this overestimation was relatively greater for the range of short durations than for that of longer durations. Further analyses suggest that this lengthening effect was mediated by an arousal effect of limited duration on the speed of the internal clock system.

  6. Retinal Vascular Morphological Changes in Patients with Extremely Severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Yi Wang

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: This study indicated that increased AVR of retinal vessel can be observed in extremely severe OSAS patients. For patients with OSAS, retinal vascular abnormalities may become an early indication for further cardiovascular abnormalities.

  7. Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Tim L

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

  8. Field method to measure changes in percent body fat of young women: The TIGER Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Body mass index (BMI), waist (W) and hip (H) circumference (C) are commonly used to assess changes in body composition for field research. We developed a model to estimate changes in dual energy X-ray absorption (DXA) percent fat (% fat) from these variables with a diverse sample of young women fro...

  9. Change in eating and body related behaviors during the first year of university.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timko, C A; Mooney, K; Juarascio, A

    2010-01-01

    Significant changes in BMI, disordered eating, and body image dissatisfaction occur during the first year of university. However, previous research has not yet isolated the key factors that lead to these changes. This study sought to add to the body of research in this area by investigating students' eating attitudes, behaviors, body image, and weight at the beginning and the end of the first year of university. Participants were initially 64 male and female university students from two universities: one rural and one urban. Twenty-eight percent of the participants completed assessments at two time points. These included a series of questionnaires designed to measure disordered eating, body image dissatisfaction and weight. These changes were different for males and females. Substantial changes in eating behaviors, attitudes, body image and BMI occur during the first year of university. Concrete knowledge about these changes might help students adapt to university life.

  10. Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, F.

    2015-12-01

    The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management

  11. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. van Pelt

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM or regional climate model (RCM simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995 precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

  12. Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and the Implications for Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Pei; Wu, Shiliang

    2016-03-31

    Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air quality data and meteorological data further indicates strong sensitivities of air quality (including both average air pollutant concentrations and high pollution episodes) to extreme meteorological events. For example, we find that in the United States the probability of severe ozone pollution when there are heat waves could be up to seven times of the average probability during summertime, while temperature inversions in wintertime could enhance the probability of severe particulate matter pollution by more than a factor of two. We have also identified significant seasonal and spatial variations in the sensitivity of air quality to extreme air pollution meteorology.

  13. Seasonal changes in total body water; body composition and water turnover in reindeer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terje S. Larsen

    1985-05-01

    Full Text Available Total body water and water turnover were measured at different times throughout the year in 3 captive Norwegian reindeer, using a tritiated water dilution method (Holleman et al. 1982. Total body water (percent of body weight increased during late autumn and winter, from 59.1 ± 1.5 % in October to 72.5 ± 2.0 % in April. Using the equatation by Pace and Rathbun (1945 for predicting total body fat (% fat = 100 - % water/0.732, this increase in total body water indicates a concomitant reduction in body fat, from a maximum value of 18.9 ± 2.6 % (of body weight in October to a minimum of 0.9 ± 2.7 % in April. During summer, on the other hand, fat content increased at the expense of a reduced percentage of body water. Water turnover was low in winter (December - April, ranging between 30.8 ± 5.2and43.6 ± 13.5ml.d-'. kg-1, but increased nearly fourfold during summer (June-August with a maximum of 117.7 ± 5.9 ml.d-1. kg-1 in August. Positive correlations between water turnover and food intake and between water turnover and ambient temperature were found, the latter probably resulting from an incidental correlation between food intake and ambient temperature.Sesongmessige forandringer i totalt kroppsvann, kropps-sammensetning og vannomsetning hos reinsdyr.Abstract in Norwegian / Sammendrag: Totalt kroppsvann og vannomsetning av vann ble målt til forskjellige årstider i 3 norske reinsdyr ved hjelp av utvasking av tritiert vann (Holleman et al. 1982. Totalt kroppsvann (prosent av kroppsvekt økte utover høsten og vinteren, fra 59.1 ± 1.5 % i oktober til 72.5 ± 2.0 % i april. Ved hjelp av en ligning som er gitt av Pace og Rathbun (1945 for beregning av totalt kroppsfett (% fett = 100 - % vann/0.732, fant en at denne økningen i vanninnhold tilsvarte en samtidig reduksjon i fettinnhold, fra en maksimums-verdi på 18.9 ± 2.6 % av kroppsvekt i oktober til et minimum på 0.9 ± 2.7 % i april. Utover sommeren økte derimot innholdet av fett p

  14. Changes of blood circulation of the extremity after external fixation for tibia shaft defect: an experimental study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Objective: To assess and compare two approaches, end to endcompression with lengthening (EECL) and segmental bone transport by lengthening (STBL), for long tubular bone defect and nonunion.Methods: Ten goats were used to establish the bone defect model of the mid-tibia. The bone defect ends were shortened step by step with a sulcated half-ring external fixator. Changes of the blood flow of the distal extremity were measured with pulse-Doppler monitor and angiography.Results: The blood flow in the distal extremity was not affected when bone defect was less than 15% of the original length. Blood circulatory disorder would appear in the distal extremity when bone defect ranged 15%-20% of the original length. The necrosis would appear in the extremity because of the blood circulatory obstacle when bone defect was more than 20% of the original length.Conclusions: EECL is an appropriate alternative of treatments if bone defect is less than 15%; while SBTL may be feasible if bone defect is over 20% of the original length. When bone defect ranges between 15% and 20%, EECL should be applied with great care on condition of keeping watch on the extremity circulation with pulse-Doppler monitor.

  15. [The dynamics of morphofunctional changes in the microcirculation of the pelvic extremity after modeling the chief stages of its replantation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simagin, E I; Dimitrov, N G; Kiprenskiĭ, Iu V; Solntsev, A B

    1975-06-01

    Under study was the effect of autotransplantation in its "pure form" upon the morpho-functional reconstruction and structural mechanisms of adaptation of the blood and lymphatic links of the microcirculatory bed of extremities during early postoperation period up to 10 days. The pathophysiological state of the extremity sufficiently close to its autotransplantation was obtained by means of circular transection of soft tissues of the medial third of the femur together with the nerves and deep collecting lymphatic vessels. It was found that after modeling the main stages of replantation in the fascia and periosteum of the operated extremity there developed a spasm of the arteriolar link and dilatation of the venular and lymphatic links of the microcirculatory bed. The areas of leukocytic infiltration with the phenomena of diapedesis and microhemorrhages were revealed along the course of postcapillaries and venules in the paravasal connective tissue. The amount of functioning arteriole-venular anastomoses was increased. Against the background of pronounced oedema of soft tissues of the operated extremity the venous pressure increased and the rate of the capillary bloodflow in the skin and muscles decreased. The above changes tend to be reduced by the 10th day after modelling the main stages of replantation of the extremity.

  16. Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabari, Hossein; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Saeed, Sajjad; Brisson, Erwan; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Willems, Patrick

    2016-09-01

    This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local sub-daily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.

  17. Body Weight Can Change How Your Emotions Are Perceived

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Accurately interpreting other’s emotions through facial expressions has important adaptive values for social interactions. However, due to the stereotypical social perception of overweight individuals as carefree, humorous, and light-hearted, the body weight of those with whom we interact may have a systematic influence on our emotion judgment even though it has no relevance to the expressed emotion itself. In this experimental study, we examined the role of body weight in faces on the affective perception of facial expressions. We hypothesized that the weight perceived in a face would bias the assessment of an emotional expression, with overweight faces generally more likely to be perceived as having more positive and less negative expressions than healthy weight faces. Using two-alternative forced-choice perceptual decision tasks, participants were asked to sort the emotional expressions of overweight and healthy weight facial stimuli that had been gradually morphed across six emotional intensity levels into one of two categories—“neutral vs. happy” (Experiment 1) and “neutral vs. sad” (Experiment 2). As predicted, our results demonstrated that overweight faces were more likely to be categorized as happy (i.e., lower happy decision threshold) and less likely to be categorized as sad (i.e., higher sad decision threshold) compared to healthy weight faces that had the same levels of emotional intensity. The neutral-sad decision threshold shift was negatively correlated with participant’s own fear of becoming fat, that is, those without a fear of becoming fat more strongly perceived overweight faces as sad relative to those with a higher fear. These findings demonstrate that the weight of the face systematically influences how its emotional expression is interpreted, suggesting that being overweight may make emotional expressions appear more happy and less sad than they really are. PMID:27870892

  18. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. van Pelt

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available Global Climate Model (GCM or Regional Climate Model (RCM simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better picture of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias corrected RCM simulations of the 1971–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995 precipitation/temperature time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. Time series resampling was applied to extend 35-yr GCM and RCM time-slices to 3000-yr series to estimate extreme precipitation with return periods up to 1000 yr. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also resulted in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

  19. [Adaptive changes in the body upon exposure to electromagnetic radiation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubkova, S M

    1996-01-01

    The chance to use electromagnetic exposures as active adaptogen and the detecting of adaptive changes following them were objects of our studies. The data of experimental and clinical studies significative the dependence of changes on the functional state of organism were seen. Particular attention is paid to the site of exposure and to the advantages in the action of electromagnetic exposures on areas overlaying the endocrine glands and control centers of central nerve system. In these conditions electromagnetic exposures play a part of trigger initiated natural processes of homeostatic regulation in the organism functional systems. It is shown that the course of electromagnetic exposures in wide frequency range until laser radiation (infrared and red) arises adaptive changes of the regulator systems, of the bioenergetic and the biosynthetic processes in myocardium, liver, brain, thymus and other tissues predetermined genetically and secured the power of the adaptive systems. The cross-adaptation effects underlie the electromagnetic exposures medical action.

  20. Hydrologic Extremes in a changing climate: how much information can regional climate models provide?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2012-08-14

    We proposed to identify a set of about 10 urban areas across the western U.S., and hourly precipitation data within each of these areas, which were extracted from the NCDC TD 3240. We also proposed to analyze the annual maximum series of precipitation extremes simulated for NARCCAP (using Reanalysis boundary forcing) for the grid cells close to station data, and to compare the distributions of annual maximum precipitation for accumulation intervals ranging from one to 28 hours. Recognizing that there may inevitably be differences between the station data and RCM grid cell values, we proposed to examine the scale dependence in the distributions of extremes.

  1. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.

    2009-04-01

    According to the IPCC, flooding is the most widespread serious potential impact of climate change on human settlement. Vulnerability to floods can be thought as a function of exposure and adaptive capacity, and all three entities have been increasing in many areas. Therefore, in order to inform decision-makers, it is crucial to better understand what are the vulnerability factors but also to what extend individuals and societies are capable to adapt their way of life to their changing environment. In this perspective, flash flood events offer a good example of the kind of extremes that our societies may have to face more often in the future. Characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity and small scale, they are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and leave very little lead-time for warnings. In this context, our interdisciplinary team conducts research focusing on individual and human organization responses to warning and crisis situations by using a comprehensive, coupled natural—human system approach over time and space scales. The objective is to understand i) what cognitive and situational factors help individuals and communities to shift from normal daily activities to adapted crisis response and ii) what is the dynamic of this process compared to the one of the natural phenomenon. In this regard, our research learned both from individual perception and behavioral intent survey ("what if" type of survey) than from actual behavioral data gathered in a context of post-event investigations. The review of the literature shows that behavioral intent surveys do not accurately predict warning and crisis response as well as behavioral data do. Knowing that, the difficulty is to obtain consistent and accurate spatio-temporal behavioral data. According to our experience, this is particularly difficult in the context of crisis situations. Behavioral verification requires real-time observations and data collection of indicators

  2. Temporal Changes in Extreme High Temerature, Heat Waves in Istanbul Between 1960-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yürük, C.; Ünal, Y. S.; Bilgen, S. I.; Menteş, Ş. S.; İncecik, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2014 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. In 2012, the number of hot days reaches the maximum value in all stations and Kartal station located southern part of city, has the highest value of 60 hot days. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. To estimate the relationship between urban heat island intensity and the heat waves, we examined data at 43 stations collected by Disaster Coordination Center and TSMS between 2007 and 2012. Urban heat island phenomenon is found to be related to higher

  3. Thinking meta-theoretically about the role of internalization in the development of body dissatisfaction and body change behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karazsia, Bryan T; van Dulmen, Manfred H M; Wong, Kendal; Crowther, Janis H

    2013-09-01

    Internalization of societal standards of physical attractiveness (i.e., internalization of the thin ideal for women and internalization of the mesomorphic ideal for men) is a widely studied and robust risk factor for body dissatisfaction and maladaptive body change behaviors. Substantial empirical research supports internalization as both a mediator and a moderator of the relation between societal influences and body dissatisfaction. In this paper, a primer on mediation and moderation is followed by a review of literature and discussion of the extent to which internalization can theoretically fulfill the roles of both mediation and moderation. The literature review revealed a stark contrast in research design (experimental versus non-experimental design) when alternate conceptualizations of internalization are adopted. A meta-theoretical, moderated mediation model is presented. This model integrates previous research and can inform future empirical and clinical endeavors.

  4. Effect of vibration on muscle strength imbalance in lower extremity using multi-control whole body vibration platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chang Ho; Seo, Shin Bae; Kang, Seung Rok; Kim, Kyung; Kwon, Tae Kyu

    2015-01-01

    This study shows the improvement of muscle activity and muscle strength imbalance in the lower extremities through independent exercise loads in vibration platform. Twenty females of age 20 participated in this study. The subjects were divided into WBV group, with more than 10% of muscle strength imbalance between left and right the lower extremities, and control group, with less than 10% of muscle strength imbalance between left and right the lower extremities. As the prior experiment showed, different exercise postures provide different muscular activities. As a result, the highest muscular activity was found to be in the low squat posture. Therefore, the LS posture was selected for the exercise in this experiment. Vibration intensities were applied to dominant muscle and non-dominant muscle, and the vibration frequency was fixed at 25Hz for the WBV group. The control group was asked to perform the same exercise as the WBV group, without stimulated vibration. This exercise was conducted for a total of 4 weeks. As a result, the WBV group which showed an average deviation of 16% before the experiment, tended to decrease approximately to 5%. In this study, vibration exercise using load deviation is shown to be effective in improving the muscle strength imbalance.

  5. Acute cytologic changes of adenocarcinoma of uterine body by radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, Kahori; Katoh, Tomoyasu; Teshima, Hideo; Arai, Yuji; Satoh, Hisashi; Hirai, Yasuo; Tsuzuku, Masafumi; Yamauchi, Kazuhiro; Hasumi, Katsuhiko [Cancer Institute Hospital, Tokyo (Japan)

    1998-11-01

    Initial radiotherapy for patients with endometrial cancer with complications is rare. The purpose of this study was to identify the acute cytologic changes in endometrial cancer induced by irradiation. From 1985 to 1997, 21 patients with endometrial cancer received initial radiotherapy. We reviewed ten cases of them cytologically from which we were able to estimate the acute changes in cancer cells. As the dose of irradiation increased, wrinkled edge of nuclei, cytoplasmic vacuolation, and coarse granular chromatin were diffusely observed. Nuclear swelling and giant cell formation appeared in a scattered manner. Compared with histologic specimens, we could observe intra-nuclear changes more clearly on the endometrial smear. We could also observe a decrease in large clusters and a significant increase in small clusters with degeneration when cancer nests collapse in histologic specimens. We found that the cellular changes of endometrial cancer by irradiation generally resemble that of squamous cell cancer. We recommend complete full dose irradiation before assessing the prognosis of patients with endometrial cancer because radiosensitivity can be very variable. (author)

  6. The impact of CO2 fertilization and historical land use/land cover change on regional climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.

  7. Use of bioelectrical impedance analysis to determine body composition changes in HIV-associated wasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klauke, Stephan; Fischer, Harald; Rieger, Armin; Frühauf, Lukas; Staszewski, Schlomo; Althoff, Peter-Henning; Helm, Eilke Brigitte

    2005-04-01

    AIDS wasting syndrome results in loss of lean body mass and body cell mass. This 12-week, open-label study used bioelectrical impedance analysis to measure body composition changes in 24 patients with AIDS wasting syndrome receiving recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH). The primary endpoint was percentage monthly change in body weight before/after r-hGH. Secondary endpoints included change from baseline in body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis), isometric strength and CD4+ count. Twenty patients completed the study: r-hGH resulted in mean weight gains (+2.7%, P = 0.146), and significant increases in mean body cell mass (+8.0%, P = 0.0211), lean body mass (+4.8%, P = 0.0373) and water (+5.5%, P r-hGH was generally well tolerated; the most frequent adverse events were fever (7.3%) and diarrhoea (6.3%). Thus, bioelectrical impedance analysis can detect improved body cell mass independent of changes in body weight resulting from r-hGH treatment in patients with AIDS wasting syndrome.

  8. A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I.D.; Rohling, E.J.; Slangen, A.

    2017-01-01

    Future increases in flooding potential around the world's coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Yet, the two main approaches for projecting 21st century GMSL rise—i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical—give

  9. Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Deme, Abdoulaye; Tall, Moustapha; Mariotti, Laura; Gaye, Amadou T.

    2016-12-01

    We use two CORDEX-Africa simulations performed with the regional model RegCM4 to characterize the projected changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes associated with the West African Monsoon (WAM). RegCM4 was driven for the period 1970-2100 by the HadGEM2-ES and the MPI-ESM Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. RegCM4 accurately simulates the WAM characteristics in terms of seasonal mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and extreme events of rainfall. Overall, both RegCM4 experiments are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation for the reference period (i.e. present-day), and in fact show improved performance compared to the driving GCMs in terms of precipitation mean climatology and extreme events, although different shortcomings in the various models are still evident. Precipitation is projected to decrease (increase) over western (eastern) Sahel, although with different spatial detail between RegCM4 and the corresponding driving GCMs. Changes in extreme precipitation events show patterns in line with those of the mean change. The models project different changes in water budget over the Sahel region, where the MPI projects an increased deficit in local moisture supply (E P). The E-P change is primarily precipitation driven. The precipitation increases over the eastern and/or central Sahel are attributed to the increase of moisture convergence due to increased water vapor in the boundary layer air column and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the projected dry conditions over the western Sahel are associated with the strengthening of moisture divergence in the upper level (850-300 hPa) combined to both a southward migration of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and a weakening of rising motion between the core of the AEJ and the Tropical Easterly Jet.

  10. Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

    2015-09-01

    This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

  11. Body actions change the appearance of facial expressions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Fantoni

    Full Text Available Perception, cognition, and emotion do not operate along segregated pathways; rather, their adaptive interaction is supported by various sources of evidence. For instance, the aesthetic appraisal of powerful mood inducers like music can bias the facial expression of emotions towards mood congruency. In four experiments we showed similar mood-congruency effects elicited by the comfort/discomfort of body actions. Using a novel Motor Action Mood Induction Procedure, we let participants perform comfortable/uncomfortable visually-guided reaches and tested them in a facial emotion identification task. Through the alleged mediation of motor action induced mood, action comfort enhanced the quality of the participant's global experience (a neutral face appeared happy and a slightly angry face neutral, while action discomfort made a neutral face appear angry and a slightly happy face neutral. Furthermore, uncomfortable (but not comfortable reaching improved the sensitivity for the identification of emotional faces and reduced the identification time of facial expressions, as a possible effect of hyper-arousal from an unpleasant bodily experience.

  12. Prognostic value of body mass index and change in body weight in postoperative outcomes of lung cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Tatsuo; Toyazaki, Toshiya; Chiba, Naohisa; Ueda, Yuichiro; Gotoh, Masashi

    2016-10-01

    Nutritional status is associated with an effect on oncological outcomes. However, the effect of nutritional status on postoperative survival in lung cancer has not been well studied. We retrospectively analysed and evaluated the effect of preoperative body mass index (BMI) and changes in body weight on postoperative outcomes of lung cancer surgery. A total of 1311 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer who underwent surgery between January 2001 and December 2011 were included in this study. Preoperative body weight at 4-12 weeks prior to surgery was obtained in 737 patients and the ratio of change in body weight was calculated. The patients were classified into four groups as follows: underweight (BMI obese (BMI ≥ 30). Postoperative survival curves of the BMI groups showed that the underweight group had a poorer prognosis than the other groups, especially for disease-free survival (DFS) (P = 0.03). Univariate and adjusted survival analyses using Cox's proportional hazards regression model showed that low BMI was a significantly poor prognostic factor in overall survival (OS) (P = 0.03 and P = 0.02, respectively) and DFS (P lung cancer. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Chengsheng; Shaw, Kristi S; Upperman, Crystal R; Blythe, David; Mitchell, Clifford; Murtugudde, Raghu; Sapkota, Amy R; Sapkota, Amir

    2015-10-01

    Salmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities. We obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002-2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960-2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960-1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations. We observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (incidence rate ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.013-1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035-1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%). To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events-that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades-are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Body mass index as a prognostic factor for fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur: a case-control study,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Cavanus Pagani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives:To compare the body mass index (BMI of patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur with the BMI of patients without any previous history of fractures.Methods:We investigated patients of both sexes, aged 65 years or over, who were admitted to Hospital Independência, Hospital Beneficência Portuguesa or ULBRA University Hospital, between December 2007 and December 2010, with histories of low-energy trauma such as falling from a standingposition. These individuals were compared with patients of the same age but without any history of fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 89, who were attended at the geriatrics outpatient clinic of the Sociedade Porto-Alegrense de Auxílio aos Necessitados (SPAAN.Results:The age group of the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur ranged from 65 to 96 years (mean: 77.58. The main type of fracture was trochanteric (47; 62.2%, followed by femoral neck fractures (27; 36%. Among the patients who presented on fracturing the proximal extremity of the femur, 12% had low weight, 62.7% normal weight, 24% overweight, and 1.3% obesity. Among the patients without any history of fractures, 5.6% presented low weight, 43.8% normal weight, 33.7% overweight, and 9.8% obesity. It was observed that the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 75 presented a mean BMI of 22.6, while the patients without fractures presented a mean BMI of 25.5.Conclusion:The patients in the group with fractures were significantly taller than those in the group without fractures and presented significantly lower BMI than those in the group without fractures.

  15. Body mass index as a prognostic factor for fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur: a case–control study☆☆☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagani, Renato Cavanus; Kunz, Rodrigo Ernesto; Girardi, Ricardo; Guerra, Marcelo

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To compare the body mass index (BMI) of patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur with the BMI of patients without any previous history of fractures. Methods We investigated patients of both sexes, aged 65 years or over, who were admitted to Hospital Independência, Hospital Beneficência Portuguesa or ULBRA University Hospital, between December 2007 and December 2010, with histories of low-energy trauma such as falling from a standing position. These individuals were compared with patients of the same age but without any history of fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 89), who were attended at the geriatrics outpatient clinic of the Sociedade Porto-Alegrense de Auxílio aos Necessitados (SPAAN). Results The age group of the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur ranged from 65 to 96 years (mean: 77.58). The main type of fracture was trochanteric (47; 62.2%), followed by femoral neck fractures (27; 36%). Among the patients who presented on fracturing the proximal extremity of the femur, 12% had low weight, 62.7% normal weight, 24% overweight, and 1.3% obesity. Among the patients without any history of fractures, 5.6% presented low weight, 43.8% normal weight, 33.7% overweight, and 9.8% obesity. It was observed that the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 75) presented a mean BMI of 22.6, while the patients without fractures presented a mean BMI of 25.5. Conclusion The patients in the group with fractures were significantly taller than those in the group without fractures and presented significantly lower BMI than those in the group without fractures. PMID:26229845

  16. Does short-term fasting promote changes in state body image?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaumberg, Katherine; Anderson, Drew A

    2014-03-01

    Fasting, or going a significant amount of time without food, is a predictor of eating pathology in at-risk samples. The current study examined whether acute changes in body image occur after an episode of fasting in college students. Furthermore, it evaluated whether individual difference variables might inform the relationship between fasting and shifts in body image. Participants (N=186) included male (44.7%) and female college students who completed the Body Image States Scale (BISS) and other eating-related measures before a 24-h fast. Participants completed the BISS again after fasting. While no overall changes in BISS scores emerged during the study, some individuals evidenced body image improvement. Baseline levels of disinhibition and self-reported fasting at least once per week uniquely predicted improvement in body image. Individual difference variables may play a role in how fasting could be reinforced by shifts in body image.

  17. Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

    2014-06-01

    Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future.

  18. Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Nino Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitoh, A.; Endo, H.

    2015-12-01

    El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will still be the most dominant year-to-year variations of the future tropical climate system. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Nino at the end of the 21st century. Four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes are used as future boundary conditions based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. Rainfall extremes such as the maximum 5-day precipitation total (Rx5d) over the western Pacific are positively correlated to the Nino3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that Rx5d regressed to the Nino3.4 SST will increase two times in the future compared to the present value. This implies drastic increase of risk of heavy-rainfall induced disasters under by global warming over the western Pacific countries.

  19. Holistic view to integrated climate change assessment and extreme weather adaptation in the Lake Victoria Basin East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutua, F.; Koike, T.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events have been the leading cause of disasters and damage all over the world.The primary ingredient to these disasters especially floods is rainfall which over the years, despite advances in modeling, computing power and use of new data and technologies, has proven to be difficult to predict. Also, recent climate projections showed a pattern consistent with increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in the East African region.We propose a holistic integrated approach to climate change assessment and extreme event adaptation through coupling of analysis techniques, tools and data. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa supports over three million livelihoods and is a valuable resource to five East African countries as a source of water and means of transport. However, with a Mesoscale weather regime driven by land and lake dynamics,extreme Mesoscale events have been prevalent and the region has been on the receiving end during anomalously wet years in the region. This has resulted in loss of lives, displacements, and food insecurity. In the LVB, the effects of climate change are increasingly being recognized as a significant contributor to poverty, by its linkage to agriculture, food security and water resources. Of particular importance are the likely impacts of climate change in frequency and intensity of extreme events. To tackle this aspect, this study adopted an integrated regional, mesoscale and basin scale approach to climate change assessment. We investigated the projected changes in mean climate over East Africa, diagnosed the signals of climate change in the atmosphere, and transferred this understanding to mesoscale and basin scale. Changes in rainfall were analyzed and similar to the IPCC AR4 report; the selected three General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a wetter East Africa with intermittent dry periods in June-August. Extreme events in the region are projected to increase; with the number of wet days

  20. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  1. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    Full Text Available Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS and the Climate Research Unit (CRU. Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection. Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  2. Association of Childhood Body Mass Index and Change in Body Mass Index With First Adult Ischemic Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjærde, Line K; Gamborg, Michael; Ängquist, Lars

    2017-01-01

    Importance: The incidence of ischemic stroke among young adults is rising and is potentially due to an increase in stroke risk factors occurring at younger ages, such as obesity. Objectives: To investigate whether childhood body mass index (BMI) and change in BMI are associated with adult ischemic....... Participants were 307 677 individuals (8899 ischemic stroke cases) with measured weight and height at ages 7 to 13 years. The dates of the analysis were September 1, 2015, to May 27, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Childhood BMI, change in BMI, and birth weight. Ischemic stroke events were divided into early...

  3. Evaluation of Prospective Changes in Temperature Extremes for the CORDEX-Australasia Domain Using the NEX-GDDP Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2017-04-01

    CORDEX-Australasia is a vast domain where comprises primarily Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea whilst it also covers the islands in the Pacific Ocean such as New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu as well. Climate of Australasia varies from tropical monsoonal and arid to moist temperate and alpine. The number of studies about the domain of Australasia is very limited and it is in urgent need of further efforts. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and temperature extremes over the domain of Australasia and it investigates the changes in the number of some specific temperature extreme indices (i.e. summer days, consecutive summer days, heat wave duration, very warm days, tropical nights, etc.) as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). All these extreme indices were also calculated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) dataset. In this study, all these index computations have been employed by utilizing ACCESS1-0 and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models' bias corrected daily minimum and maximum air temperature variables, which were statistically downscaled to a 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees spatial resolution by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center, under both medium-low and high emission trajectories (i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Moreover, the analysis of the projected changes in the temperature extremes was applied for the period of 2081-2100 with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Acknowledgements: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220. Climate scenarios used were from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS).

  4. Reprogramming the body weight set point by a reciprocal interaction of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc gene expression reverts extreme obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavaljit H. Chhabra

    2016-10-01

    Conclusions: Pomc reactivation in previously obese, calorie-restricted ArcPomc−/− mice normalized energy homeostasis, suggesting that their body weight set point was restored to control levels. In contrast, massively obese and hyperleptinemic ArcPomc−/− mice or those weight-matched and treated with PASylated leptin to maintain extreme hyperleptinemia prior to Pomc reactivation converged to an intermediate set point relative to lean control and obese ArcPomc−/− mice. We conclude that restoration of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc expression is necessary for obese ArcPomc−/− mice to achieve and sustain normal metabolic homeostasis; whereas deficits in either parameter set a maladaptive allostatic balance that defends increased adiposity and body weight.

  5. Recent changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal, in the period 1941-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Santo, Fátima Espírito; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, João L. M. P.

    2013-06-01

    Changes in the climatology of precipitation and surface air temperature are being investigated worldwide, searching for changes in variability, the mean and extreme events (maximum and minimum). By exploring recent adjustments in the climate of mainland Portugal, particularly in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme events, this study investigates trends in selected specific indices that are calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 and surface air temperature data from 23 measuring stations scattered across the territory. Special attention is paid to regional differences and variations in seasonality. The data cover the periods 1941-2007 for precipitation, and 1941-2006 for temperature. They are explored at the annual and seasonal scales and for different sub-periods. Results show that trends in annual precipitation indices are generally weak and, overall, not statistically significant at the 5% level. Nevertheless, a decreasing trend is revealed by regional indices of total wet-day precipitation and extreme precipitation (above the 99th percentile). Seasonal precipitation exhibits significant decreasing trends in spring precipitation, while extreme heavy precipitation events, in terms of both magnitude and frequency, have become more pronounced in autumn. Results for winter and summer suggest that the extremes have not suffered any significant aggravation. Trends for air temperature are statistically more significant and marked than for precipitation and indicate general warming across the territory. This warming trend is revealed very consistently by the time series of individual stations and regional mean temperature, and is also consistent with the findings reported in other studies for Portugal and at the European scale.

  6. Discrimination training with multimodal stimuli changes activity in the mushroom body of the hawkmoth Manduca sexta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Balkenius

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mushroom bodies of the insect brain play an important role in olfactory processing, associative learning and memory. The mushroom bodies show odor-specific spatial patterns of activity and are also influenced by visual stimuli. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Functional imaging was used to investigate changes in the in vivo responses of the mushroom body of the hawkmoth Manduca sexta during multimodal discrimination training. A visual and an odour stimulus were presented either together or individually. Initially, mushroom body activation patterns were identical to the odour stimulus and the multimodal stimulus. After training, however, the mushroom body response to the rewarded multimodal stimulus was significantly lower than the response to the unrewarded unimodal odour stimulus, indicating that the coding of the stimuli had changed as a result of training. The opposite pattern was seen when only the unimodal odour stimulus was rewarded. In this case, the mushroom body was more strongly activated by the multimodal stimuli after training. When no stimuli were rewarded, the mushroom body activity decreased for both the multimodal and unimodal odour stimuli. There was no measurable response to the unimodal visual stimulus in any of the experiments. These results can be explained using a connectionist model where the mushroom body is assumed to be excited by olfactory stimulus components, and suppressed by multimodal configurations. CONCLUSIONS: Discrimination training with multimodal stimuli consisting of visual and odour cues leads to stimulus specific changes in the in vivo responses of the mushroom body of the hawkmoth.

  7. Body image change and improved eating self-regulation in a weight management intervention in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carraça, Eliana V; Silva, Marlene N; Markland, David; Vieira, Paulo N; Minderico, Cláudia S; Sardinha, Luís B; Teixeira, Pedro J

    2011-07-18

    Successful weight management involves the regulation of eating behavior. However, the specific mechanisms underlying its successful regulation remain unclear. This study examined one potential mechanism by testing a model in which improved body image mediated the effects of obesity treatment on eating self-regulation. Further, this study explored the role of different body image components. Participants were 239 overweight women (age: 37.6 ± 7.1 yr; BMI: 31.5 ± 4.1 kg/m²) engaged in a 12-month behavioral weight management program, which included a body image module. Self-reported measures were used to assess evaluative and investment body image, and eating behavior. Measurements occurred at baseline and at 12 months. Baseline-residualized scores were calculated to report change in the dependent variables. The model was tested using partial least squares analysis. The model explained 18-44% of the variance in the dependent variables. Treatment significantly improved both body image components, particularly by decreasing its investment component (f² = .32 vs. f² = .22). Eating behavior was positively predicted by investment body image change (p body image (p body image (effect ratios: .68 and .22, respectively). Results suggest that improving body image, particularly by reducing its salience in one's personal life, might play a role in enhancing eating self-regulation during weight control. Accordingly, future weight loss interventions could benefit from proactively addressing body image-related issues as part of their protocols.

  8. Sequential changes of body composition in patients with enterocutaneous fistula during the 10 days after admission

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-Bo Wang; Jian-An Ren; Jie-Shou Li

    2002-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the sequential changes of body composition in the metabolic response that occurred in a group of patients with enterocutaneous fistula after admission to the hospital.METHODS: Sixty-one patients with enterocutaneous fistula admitted to our hospital had measurements of body composition by multiple-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis after admission and 5, 10 days later. Sequential measurements of plasma constitutive proteins were also made. RESULTS: The body weight, fat-free mass, body mass index, and body cell mass were initially well below the normal range, especially the body mass index and body cell mass. And all the data gradually moved up over the 10-day study period, only a highly significant difference was found in body cell mass. Once the patients Received nutrition supplement, ECW began to return to normal range slowly as well as ICW and TBW began to rise up, and ECW/TBW significantly declined to near normal level by day 10 in either male or female patients. There was a reprioritization of plasma constitutive protein synthesis that was obligatory and independent of changes in FFM.CONCLUSION: Serial measurements can quantify the disturbance of body composition in enterocutaneous fistula patients. The early nutritional intervention rapidly ameliorates the abnormal distribution of body water while the state-of-the-art surgical management prevents the further deterioration in cellular composition.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    .g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage......Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series...

  10. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2015-02-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

  11. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  12. Experimental evidence that changes in mood cause changes in body dissatisfaction among undergraduate women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haedt-Matt, Alissa A; Zalta, Alyson K; Forbush, Kelsie T; Keel, Pamela K

    2012-03-01

    Previous research has found concurrent and prospective associations between negative mood and body dissatisfaction; however, only experimental research can establish causal relationships. This study utilized an experimental design to examine the influence of negative mood on body dissatisfaction. Undergraduate women were randomly assigned to an experimental or control condition. Participants in the experimental condition (n=21) completed a negative mood induction procedure. Participants in the control condition (n=24) completed a neutral mood procedure. All participants completed visual analog scales regarding their mood and satisfaction with weight and shape before and after each manipulation. Body dissatisfaction increased following the procedure for experimental but not control participants, suggesting that negative mood caused increased body dissatisfaction. In cultures that idealize thinness, body dissatisfaction may arise from funneling general feelings of dysphoria into more concrete and culturally meaningful negative feelings about the body.

  13. Total and regional body-composition changes in early postmenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Q; Hassager, C; Ravn, Pernille;

    1994-01-01

    Total and regional body composition were measured in 373 early postmenopausal women aged 49-60 y by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry to evaluate whether the changes in body composition in the early postmenopausal years are related to menopause itself or merely to age. Both fat mass and fat...

  14. Change in Diet, Physical Activity, and Body Weight in Female College Freshman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Scott M.; Black, David R.; Blue, Carolyn L.; Gretebeck, Randall J.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To examine diet, physical activity, and body-weight changes associated with relocation from home to university. Methods: Diet, fitness/physical activity, body-weight parameters and self-efficacy were assessed among 54 freshman women upon college entry and 5 months later. Results: Although caloric intake significantly decreased, a…

  15. Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored...... through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied...

  16. Avian pectoral muscle size rapidly tracks body mass changes during flight, fasting and fuelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindstrom, A; Kvist, A; Piersma, T; Dekinga, A; Dietz, MW; Lindström, Åke

    2000-01-01

    We used ultrasonic imaging to monitor short-term changes in the pectoral muscle size of captive red knots Calidris canutus. Pectoral muscle thickness changed rapidly and consistently in parallel with body mass changes caused by flight, fasting;and fuelling. Four knots hew repeatedly for 10h periods

  17. Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Noordam, M.Y.; Franz, E.; Willems, D.J.M.; Boxall, A.

    2013-01-01

    According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and

  18. Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.

    2016-04-01

    The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979-2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons.

  19. Little effect of climate change on body size of herbivorous beetles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baar, Yuval; Friedman, Ariel Leib Leonid; Meiri, Shai; Scharf, Inon

    2016-11-07

    Ongoing climate change affects various aspects of an animal's life, with important effects on distribution range and phenology. The relationship between global warming and body size changes in mammals and birds has been widely studied, with most findings indicating a decline in body size over time. Nevertheless, little data exist on similar size change patterns of invertebrates in general and insects in particular, and it is unclear whether insects should decrease in size or not with climate warming. We measured over 4000 beetle specimens, belonging to 29 beetle species in 8 families, collected in Israel during the last 100 years. The sampled species are all herbivorous. We examined whether beetle body size had changed over the years, while also investigating the relationships between body size and annual temperature, precipitation, net primary productivity (NPP) at the collection site and collection month. None of the environmental variables, including the collection year, was correlated with the size of most of the studied beetle species, while there were strong interactions of all variables with species. Our results, though mostly negative, suggest that the effect of climate change on insect body size is species-specific and by no means a general macro-ecological rule. They also suggest that the intrapopulation variance in body size of insects collected as adults in the field is large enough to conceal intersite environmental effects on body size, such as the effect of temperature and NPP.

  20. The slowdown of the North Atlantic Gulf stream: an economic perspective on adaptation. In: What if... abrupt and extreme climage change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.

    2008-01-01

    This NWO publication consists the following contributions: Exploring governmental and victim responsibilities in view of abrupt climate change in North-Western Europe; Coping with Extreme Events: Institutional Flocking; Abrupt climate change: Analogies in impacts and coping mechanisms; Catching a

  1. Glycemic index and glycemic load in relation to changes in body weight, body fat distribution, and body composition in adult Danes 1-3

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hare-Bruun, Helle; Flint, Anne; L. Heitmann, Berit

    2006-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: A diet with a high glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) may promote overconsumption of energy and increase the risk of weight gain.Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate the relation between GI and GL of habitual diets and subsequent 6-y changes in body...... born in 1922, 1932, 1942, or 1952. A baseline health examination and a dietary history interview were carried out in 1987 and 1988; a follow-up health examination was performed in 1993 and 1994. Results: Positive associations between GI and changes in bodyweight (¿BW), percentage body fat (%BF......), and waist circumference (¿WC) were observed in women after adjustment for covariates.Significant GI X sex X physical activity interactions for ABSTRACTBackground: A diet with a high glycemic index (GI) and glycemicload (GL) may promote overconsumption of energy and increase therisk of weight gain...

  2. Changes in streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin and implications for the water-energy nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solander, K.; Bennett, K. E.; Middleton, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    The global phenomenon of climate change-induced shifts in precipitation leading to "wet regions getting wetter" and "dry regions getting drier" has been widely studied. However, the propagation of the changes in atmospheric moisture conditions to the ground within stream channels is not a direct relationship due to a combination of temporal differences in these moisture shifts and how water interacts with various land surfaces. Precipitation and streamflow changes in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are of particular interest due to its rapidly growing population, projected temperature increases that are expected to be higher than elsewhere in the contiguous United States, and subsequent climate-driven disturbances including drought, vegetation mortality, and wildfire, thereby making the region more vulnerable to shifts in hydrologic extremes. Here, we attempt to determine how streamflow extremes have changed in the CRB by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Mann-Kendall trend analysis on historical observations and future simulations. We specifically evaluate these changes in the context of key high- and low-flow metrics including the maximum, 95th percentile, 5th percentile, minimum, center timing, and 7Q10 maximum and minimum flows using daily data at the monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales. By evaluating how the center timing and other streamflow statistics are changing at different elevations, this study also assesses the relative influence of changes in snowmelt versus overall precipitation on the associated shifts in extremes. Historical streamflow records were obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) GAGES II dataset, while future records were derived using downscaled simulations from IPCC's CMIP5 Global Climate Model (GCM) database. Although preliminary results of the future simulations suggest that climate change will cause 7Q10 low flows to increase by 7% over the long-term, the combined impacts of climate and vegetation

  3. Musculoskeletal Extremity Injuries in School-aged Children with special focus on overuse injuries, seasonal variation and body composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Eva

    Ph.d. afhandlingen “Musculoskeletal Extremity Injuries in School-aged Children” er en undersøgelse af forekomsten af skader i arme og ben relateret til fysisk aktivitet. Baggrunden for studiet er, at på trods af de mange gavnlige effekter af at børn er fysisk aktive, så kan ’bivirkningen’ være...... risikoen var højest ved sportsdeltagelse i fritiden (1.57 per 1000 deltagelse i sport). Mest udtalt var risikoen i boldsports grene (især fodbold og håndbold) og til springgymnastik. Resultaterne har tilføjet en bredere indsigt i skadesbilledet i en gruppe af 6-12 årige skolebørn. De generelle fund fra...

  4. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  5. Whole-Body Reaching Movements Formulated by Minimum Muscle-Tension Change Criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, Naoki; Choi, Kyuheong; Kagawa, Takahiro; Uno, Yoji

    2016-05-01

    It is well known that planar reaching movements of the human shoulder and elbow joints have invariant features: roughly straight hand paths and bell-shaped velocity profiles. The optimal control models with the criteria of smoothness or precision, which determine a unique movement pattern, predict such features of hand trajectories. In this letter on expanding the research on simple arm reaching movements, we examine whether the smoothness criteria can be applied to whole-body reaching movements with many degrees of freedom. Determining a suitable joint trajectory in the whole-body reaching movement corresponds to the optimization problem with constraints, since body balance must be maintained during a motion task. First, we measured human joint trajectories and ground reaction forces during whole-body reaching movements, and confirmed that subjects formed similar movements with common characteristics in the trajectories of the hand position and body center of mass. Second, we calculated the optimal trajectories according to the criteria of torque and muscle-tension smoothness. While the minimum torque change trajectories were not consistent with the experimental data, the minimum muscle-tension change model was able to predict the stereotyped features of the measured trajectories. To explore the dominant effects of the extension from the torque change to the muscle-tension change, we introduced a weighted torque change cost function. Considering the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) force of the muscle as the weighting factor of each joint torque, we formulated the weighted torque change cost as a simplified version of the minimum muscle-tension change cost. The trajectories owing to the minimum weighted torque change criterion also showed qualitative agreement with the common features of the measured data. Proper estimation of the MVC forces in the body joints is essential to reproduce human whole-body movements according to the minimum muscle-tension change

  6. Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2011-01-01

    are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. The most important barrier for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through...... the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: The precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all...

  7. Neuropeptides and anticipatory changes in behaviour and physiology: seasonal body weight regulation in the Siberian hamster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Julian G; Tups, Alexander

    2003-11-01

    The Siberian hamster, Phodopus sungorus, is a powerful model of physiological body weight regulation. This seasonal model offers the potential to distinguish between the compensatory neuroendocrine systems that defend body weight against imposed negative energy balance, and those that are involved in the programming of the level of body weight that will be defended-a seasonally appropriate body weight. Of the known, studied, components of the hypothalamic energy balance system, the anorexogenic peptide, cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART), is the only candidate where gene expression changes in a manner consistent with a role in initiating or sustaining photoperiod-induced differences in body weight trajectory. Siberian hamsters effect a reversible biannual switch in leptin sensitivity in which only short day (SD)-acclimated hamsters that have undergone a reduction in body weight, adiposity and plasma leptin are sensitive to peripheral exogenous leptin. The suppressor of cytokine signalling protein, SOCS3, appears to be the molecular correlate of this seasonal sensitivity.

  8. Possible links between extreme levels of space weather changes and human health state in middle latitudes: direct and indirect indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaraly-Oghlu Babayev, Elchin

    geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 on the mentioned systems in middle-latitude location. In these studies, direct and indirect indicators of space weather influence are used: 1) Indirect indicators are essentially epidemiological data showing the temporal and spatial distribution of defined events or health disturbances involving considerable numbers of test subjects over several years. The indirect indicators used in this paper are: temporal distribution of emergency calls and hospital admissions (sudden cardiac deaths, acute myocardial infarction mortality and morbidity, so on), dynamics of traffic accidents, epidemics, etc.; 2) Direct indicators. They are physiological parameters, which can be objectively verified and which are acquired either in vivo, directly on the subject (heart rate and its variability, blood pressure, human brain's functional state, human psycho-emotional state, so on), or in vitro by laboratory diagnostics or tissue investigations. The potential co-factors, e.g. terrestrial (tropospheric) weather, seasons, demographic factor, working environment, etc., were also considered in the interpretation of the indicators. Spectral analyses have revealed certain chronobiological periodicities in the considered data. There are also provided results of daily medical-physiological experiments (acupunctural studies of conductivity of the biologically active points of human body in days with different geomagnetic activity levels) conducted in the Laboratory of Heliobiology, Baku, Azerbaijan, as a part of collaborative studies with Russian institutions such as IZMIRAN and Space Research Institute. They show on the latitudinal and longitudinal dependence of space weather influence. Our complex studies enabled to conclude that not only extremely high, but also very low levels of geomagnetic activity may have signifi- cant influence on human health state, especially, in the cardio-vascular health state and human brain's bioelectrical activity.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of-the-Art Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    2013-01-01

    to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend or impact results. The review (Willems et al., 2012) considers the following aspects: analysis of long-term historical trends...... due to anthropogenic climate change, analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change, and implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management. A summary is provided in this paper....

  10. Validation of bioelectrical-impedance analysis as a measurement of change in body composition in obesity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kushner, R.F.; Kunigk, A.; Alspaugh, M.; Andronis, P.T.; Leitch, C.A.; Schoeller, D.A. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (USA))

    1990-08-01

    The bioelectrical-impedance-analysis (BIA) method accurately measures body composition in weight-stable subjects. This study validates the use of BIA to measure change in body composition. Twelve obese females underwent weight loss at a mean rate of 1.16 kg/wk. Body composition was measured by deuterium oxide dilution (D2O), BIA, and skinfold anthropometry (SFA) at baseline and at 5% decrements in weight. Highly significant correlations were obtained between D2O and BIA (r = 0.971) and between D2O and SFA (r = 0.932). Overall, BIA predicted change in fat-free mass with greater accuracy (to 0.4 kg) and precision (+/- 1.28 kg) than did anthropometry (to 0.8 kg and +/- 2.58 kg, respectively). We conclude that BIA is a useful clinical method for measuring change in body composition.

  11. Impact of body composition changes on risk of all-cause mortality in older adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graf, Christophe E; Herrmann, François R; Spoerri, Adrian

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: This study evaluates the relationship between body mass index (BMI), fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) changes and mortality in persons ≥65 years. METHODS: Adults ≥65 years with at least two body composition measurements (BCM) between 1990 and 2011 were included. We...... excluded persons who died within one month of the second BCM and who had two single BCM in a one-month timeframe. Mortality data was retrieved until December 2012. For each person, we calculated the regression slopes for BMI, FMI and FFMI changes. Significant positive slopes were categorized as "gain......", negative slopes as "loss" and the others as "maintenance". The impact of body composition changes was evaluated by Cox regression models while adjusting for sex, age, co-morbidities and body composition at the last measurement. RESULTS: We included 791 persons with 3049 BCM. After adjustment for sex...

  12. Statistical modeling of CMIP5 projected changes in extreme wet spells over China in the late 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lianhua; Li, Yun; Jiang, Zhihong

    2017-08-01

    The observed intensity, frequency, and duration (IFD) of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold (the 95th percentile), and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model (WSM) and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961-2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile-quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.

  13. Investigation of the microbial diversity of an extremely acidic, metal-rich water body (Lake Robule, Bor, Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanković Srđan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An investigation of the microbial diversity of the extremely acidic, metal-rich Lake Robule was carried out using culture-dependant and culture-independent (T-RFLP methods, and the ability of indigenous bacteria from the lake water to leach copper from a mineral concentrate was tested. T-RFLP analysis revealed that the dominant bacteria in lake water samples were the obligate heterotroph Acidiphilium cryptum (~50% of total bacteria and the iron-oxidizing autotroph Leptospirillum ferrooxidans (~40% The iron/sulfur-oxidizing autotroph Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans had been reported to be the most abundant bacteria in the lake in an earlier study by other authors, but it was not detected in the present study using T-RFLP. Although it was isolated on solid media and detected in enrichment (bioleaching cultures. The presence of the two bacterial species detected by T-RFLP (L. ferrooxidans and A. cryptum was also confirmed by cultivation on solid media. The presence and relative abundance of bacteria inhabiting Lake Robule was explained by the physiological characteristics of the bacteria and the physico-chemical characteristics of the lake water. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176016 i br.173048

  14. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2017-03-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  15. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-05-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  16. Distributed specific sediment yield estimations in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures under a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ono

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy, geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver.2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario for the future and by accounting for the slope failure probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan.

    Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15–20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5–7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with r2 = 0.65. The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with r2 = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially averaged sediment

  17. Distributed specific sediment yield estimations in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures under a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ono

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure hazard probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure hazard probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy, geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver.2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario for the future and by accounting for the slope failure hazard probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan.

    Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15–20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5–7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with r2 = 0.65. The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with r2 = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially

  18. Distributed specific sediment yield estimations in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, K.; Akimoto, T.; Gunawardhana, L. N.; Kazama, S.; Kawagoe, S.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy), geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations) and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver.2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario) for the future and by accounting for the slope failure probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan. Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15-20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5-7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with r2 = 0.65). The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with r2 = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially averaged sediment yield for all of Japan is considered, both scenarios produced an

  19. Body image change and improved eating self-regulation in a weight management intervention in women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sardinha Luís B

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Successful weight management involves the regulation of eating behavior. However, the specific mechanisms underlying its successful regulation remain unclear. This study examined one potential mechanism by testing a model in which improved body image mediated the effects of obesity treatment on eating self-regulation. Further, this study explored the role of different body image components. Methods Participants were 239 overweight women (age: 37.6 ± 7.1 yr; BMI: 31.5 ± 4.1 kg/m2 engaged in a 12-month behavioral weight management program, which included a body image module. Self-reported measures were used to assess evaluative and investment body image, and eating behavior. Measurements occurred at baseline and at 12 months. Baseline-residualized scores were calculated to report change in the dependent variables. The model was tested using partial least squares analysis. Results The model explained 18-44% of the variance in the dependent variables. Treatment significantly improved both body image components, particularly by decreasing its investment component (f2 = .32 vs. f2 = .22. Eating behavior was positively predicted by investment body image change (p Conclusions Results suggest that improving body image, particularly by reducing its salience in one's personal life, might play a role in enhancing eating self-regulation during weight control. Accordingly, future weight loss interventions could benefit from proactively addressing body image-related issues as part of their protocols.

  20. Predicting metabolic adaptation, body weight change, and energy intake in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Kevin D

    2010-03-01

    Complex interactions between carbohydrate, fat, and protein metabolism underlie the body's remarkable ability to adapt to a variety of diets. But any imbalances between the intake and utilization rates of these macronutrients will result in changes in body weight and composition. Here, I present the first computational model that simulates how diet perturbations result in adaptations of fuel selection and energy expenditure that predict body weight and composition changes in both obese and nonobese men and women. No model parameters were adjusted to fit these data other than the initial conditions for each subject group (e.g., initial body weight and body fat mass). The model provides the first realistic simulations of how diet perturbations result in adaptations of whole body energy expenditure, fuel selection, and various metabolic fluxes that ultimately give rise to body weight change. The validated model was used to estimate free-living energy intake during a long-term weight loss intervention, a variable that has never previously been measured accurately.

  1. Assessing the impact of climate and land use changes on extreme floods in a large tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jothityangkoon, Chatchai; Hirunteeyakul, Chow; Boonrawd, Kowit; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2013-05-01

    In the wake of the recent catastrophic floods in Thailand, there is considerable concern about the safety of large dams designed and built some 50 years ago. In this paper a distributed rainfall-runoff model appropriate for extreme flood conditions is used to generate revised estimates of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for the Upper Ping River catchment (area 26,386 km2) in northern Thailand, upstream of location of the large Bhumipol Dam. The model has two components: a continuous water balance model based on a configuration of parameters estimated from climate, soil and vegetation data and a distributed flood routing model based on non-linear storage-discharge relationships of the river network under extreme flood conditions. The model is implemented under several alternative scenarios regarding the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates and is also used to estimate the potential effects of both climate change and land use and land cover changes on the extreme floods. These new estimates are compared against estimates using other hydrological models, including the application of the original prediction methods under current conditions. Model simulations and sensitivity analyses indicate that a reasonable Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) at the dam site is 6311 m3/s, which is only slightly higher than the original design flood of 6000 m3/s. As part of an uncertainty assessment, the estimated PMF is sensitive to the design method, input PMP, land use changes and the floodplain inundation effect. The increase of PMP depth by 5% can cause a 7.5% increase in PMF. Deforestation by 10%, 20%, 30% can result in PMF increases of 3.1%, 6.2%, 9.2%, respectively. The modest increase of the estimated PMF (to just 6311 m3/s) in spite of these changes is due to the factoring of the hydraulic effects of trees and buildings on the floodplain as the flood situation changes from normal floods to extreme floods, when over-bank flows may be the dominant flooding process, leading

  2. Conformational changes in the bilirubin-human serum albumin complex at extreme alkaline pH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Honoré, B; Frandsen, P C

    1986-01-01

    Light-absorption, c.d. and fluorescence of the bilirubin-albumin complex were investigated at extreme alkaline pH. Above pH 11.1 albumin binds the bilirubin molecule, twisted oppositely to the configuration at more neutral pH. On the basis of light-absorption it is shown that two alkaline...... transitions occur. The first alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.3 and 11.8, co-operatively dissociating at least six protons. The second alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.8 and 12.0. It probably implies a reversible unfolding of the albumin molecule, increasing the distance...

  3. Microhabitat and body size effects on heat tolerance: implications for responses to climate change (army ants: Formicidae, Ecitoninae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudier, Kaitlin M; Mudd, Abigail E; Erickson, Shayna C; O'Donnell, Sean

    2015-09-01

    1. Models that predict organismal and population responses to climate change may be improved by considering ecological factors that affect species thermal tolerance. Species differences in microhabitat use can expose animals to diverse thermal selective environments at a given site and may cause sympatric species to evolve different thermal tolerances. 2. We tested the hypothesis that species differences in body size and microhabitat use (above- vs. below-ground activity) would correspond to differences in thermal tolerance (maximum critical temperatures: CTmax ). Thermal buffering effects of soil can reduce exposure to extreme high temperatures for below-ground active species. We predicted larger-bodied individuals and species would have higher CTmax and that species mean CTmax would covary positively with degree of above-ground activity. We used Neotropical army ants (Formicidae: Ecitoninae) as models. Army ants vary in microhabitat use from largely subterranean to largely above-ground active species and are highly size polymorphic. 3. We collected data on above- and below-ground temperatures in habitats used by army ants to test for microhabitat temperature differences, and we conducted CTmax assays for army ant species with varying degrees of surface activity and with different body sizes within and between species. We then tested whether microhabitat use was associated with species differences in CTmax and whether microhabitat was a better predictor of CTmax than body size for species that overlapped in size. 4. Microhabitat use was a highly significant predictor of species' upper thermal tolerance limits, both for raw data and after accounting for the effects of phylogeny. Below-ground species were more thermally sensitive, with lower maximum critical temperatures (CTmax ). The smallest workers within each species were the least heat tolerant, but the magnitude of CTmax change with body size was greater in below-ground species. Species-typical microhabitat

  4. Serum POP concentrations are highly predictive of inner blubber concentrations at two extremes of body condition in northern elephant seals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Michael G; Peterson, Sarah H; Debier, Cathy; Covaci, Adrian; Dirtu, Alin C; Malarvannan, Govindan; Crocker, Daniel E; Costa, Daniel P

    2016-11-01

    Long-lived, upper trophic level marine mammals are vulnerable to bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Internal tissues may accumulate and mobilize POP compounds at different rates related to the body condition of the animal and the chemical characteristics of individual POP compounds; however, collection of samples from multiple tissues is a major challenge to ecotoxicology studies of free-ranging marine mammals and the ability to predict POP concentrations in one tissue from another tissue remains rare. Northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) forage on mesopelagic fish and squid for months at a time in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, interspersed with two periods of fasting on land, which results in dramatic seasonal fluctuations in body condition. Using northern elephant seals, we examined commonly studied tissues in mammalian toxicology to describe relationships and determine predictive equations among tissues for a suite of POP compounds, including ΣDDTs, ΣPCBs, Σchlordanes, and ΣPBDEs. We collected paired blubber (inner and outer) and blood serum samples from adult female and male seals in 2012 and 2013 at Año Nuevo State Reserve (California, USA). For females (N = 24), we sampled the same seals before (late in molting fast) and after (early in breeding fast) their approximately seven month foraging trip. For males, we sampled different seals before (N = 14) and after (N = 15) their approximately four month foraging trip. We observed strong relationships among tissues for many, but not all compounds. Serum POP concentrations were strong predictors of inner blubber POP concentrations for both females and males, while serum was a more consistent predictor of outer blubber for males than females. The ability to estimate POP blubber concentrations from serum, or vice versa, has the potential to enhance toxicological assessment and physiological modeling. Furthermore, predictive equations may illuminate commonalities or

  5. Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on return periods of hydrological extremes in the Illinois River watershed of the Midwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, H.; Yeh, P. J. F.; Knouft, J.

    2014-12-01

    As the Earth's climate is predicted to change significantly in terms of warmer temperature and higher precipitation extremes during this century due to the increased combustion of fossil fuels, accurate estimations of the frequencies of future hydrological extremes are important to understanding the potential impacts of changes in climate on water resources management, particularly in accessing flood risk. The goal of this study is to use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a distributed landscape-scale hydrological model, to predict current streamflow and the potential impacts of climate change on future stream flows in the Illinois River watershed in the Midwestern United States. Subsequently Gumbel distribution (Extreme Value Type Ⅰ) is fitted to the annual maxima simulated streamflow to derive a number of return periods of future hydrological extremes. The question in this study is: How do the return periods of future hydrological extremes change under future climate change scenarios and what factors cause the change? Daily simulated future streamflow from 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 are simulated using SWAT model based on nine separate downscaled global climate models (GCM) with three emissions scenarios. SWAT model predictions generally indicate that annual streamflow will likely decrease due to warmer temperatures. Based on the simulated daily streamflow, probability models for annual maxima flows frequency analysis are developed using Gumbel distribution and the values of hydrological extremes for different return periods including 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 years are derived. The change of return periods of hydrological extremes and the implications will be discussed.

  6. Body weight changes during the menstrual cycle among university students in Ahvaz, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghighizadeh, Mohammad Hossein; Karandish, Majid; Ghoreishi, Mahdiye; Soroor, Farshad; Shirani, Fatemeh

    2014-07-01

    Weight changes during menstrual cycle may be a cause of concern about body weight among most women. Limited data are available linking menstrual cycle and body weight changes. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between menstrual cycles and body weight changes among university students in Ahvaz, Iran. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 50 Iranian female students aged 18-24 years. Anthropometric indices were measured according to standard protocols. During a complete menstrual cycle, weights of participants were measured each morning. Seventy eight percent of participants had normal weight (Body Mass Index: 18.5-24.9 kg m(-2)). Body weight increased only slightly during the three days before beginning of the menstruation. By using repeated-measures ANOVA, no statistically significant differences were found in weigh during menstrual cycle (p-value = 0.301). No statistically significant changes were found in body weight during women's menstrual cycle in a group of healthy non-obese Iranian young women. Further studies on overweight and obese women are suggested.

  7. The effect of smoking habit changes on body weight: Evidence from the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieroni, Luca; Salmasi, Luca

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates the causal relationship between smoking and body weight through two waves (2004-2006) of the British Household Panel Survey. We model the effect of changes in smoking habits, such as quitting or reducing, and account for the heterogeneous responses of individuals located at different points of the body mass distribution by quantile regression. We test our results by means of a large set of control groups and investigate their robustness by using the changes-in-changes estimator and accounting for different thresholds to define smoking reductions. Our results reveal the positive effect of quitting smoking on weight changes, which is also found to increase in the highest quantiles, whereas the decision to reduce smoking does not affect body weight.

  8. Monitoring Change of Body Fluid during Physical Exercise using Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Finite Element Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Röthlingshöfer

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Athletes need a balanced body composition in order to achieve maximum performance. Especially dehydration reduces power and endurance during physical exercise. Monitoring the body composition, with a focus on body fluid, may help to avoid reduction in performance and other health problems.For this, a potential measurement method is bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS. BIS is a simple, non-invasive measurement method that allows to determine different body compartments (body fluid, fat, fat-free mass. However, because many physiological changes occur during physical exercise that can influence impedance measurements and distort results, it cannot be assumed that the BIS data are related to body fluid loss alone.To confirm that BIS can detect body fluid loss due to physical exercise, finite element (FE simulations were done. Besides impedance, also the current density contribution during a BIS measurement was modeled to evaluate the influence of certain tissues on BIS measurements.Simulations were done using CST EM Studio (Computer Simulation Technology, Germany and the Visible Human Data Set (National Library of Medicine, USA. In addition to the simulations, BIS measurements were also made on athletes. Comparison between the measured bioimpedance data and simulation data, as well as body weight loss during sport, indicates that BIS measurements are sensitive enough to monitor body fluid loss during physical exercise.doi:10.5617/jeb.178 J Electr Bioimp, vol. 2, pp. 79-85, 2011

  9. Change detection from synthetic aperture radar images based on neighborhood-based ratio and extreme learning machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Feng; Dong, Junyu; Li, Bo; Xu, Qizhi; Xie, Cui

    <