Research on Three-dimensional Motion History Image Model and Extreme Learning Machine for Human Body Movement Trajectory Recognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zheng Chang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the traditional machine vision recognition technology and traditional artificial neural networks about body movement trajectory, this paper finds out the shortcomings of the traditional recognition technology. By combining the invariant moments of the three-dimensional motion history image (computed as the eigenvector of body movements and the extreme learning machine (constructed as the classification artificial neural network of body movements, the paper applies the method to the machine vision of the body movement trajectory. In detail, the paper gives a detailed introduction about the algorithm and realization scheme of the body movement trajectory recognition based on the three-dimensional motion history image and the extreme learning machine. Finally, by comparing with the results of the recognition experiments, it attempts to verify that the method of body movement trajectory recognition technology based on the three-dimensional motion history image and extreme learning machine has a more accurate recognition rate and better robustness.

Transcriptome and network changes in climbers at extreme altitudes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Chen

Full Text Available Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are largely unknown. To obtain a more complete picture of the transcriptional regulatory landscape and networks involved in extreme altitude response, we followed four climbers on an expedition up Mount Xixiabangma (8,012 m, and collected blood samples at four stages during the climb for mRNA and miRNA expression assays. By analyzing dynamic changes of gene networks in response to extreme altitudes, we uncovered a highly modular network with 7 modules of various functions that changed in response to extreme altitudes. The erythrocyte differentiation module is the most prominently up-regulated, reflecting increased erythrocyte differentiation from hematopoietic stem cells, probably at the expense of differentiation into other cell lineages. These changes are accompanied by coordinated down-regulation of general translation. Network topology and flow analyses also uncovered regulators known to modulate hypoxia responses and erythrocyte development, as well as unknown regulators, such as the OCT4 gene, an important regulator in stem cells and assumed to only function in stem cells. We predicted computationally and validated experimentally that increased OCT4 expression at extreme altitude can directly elevate the expression of hemoglobin genes. Our approach established a new framework for analyzing the transcriptional regulatory network from a very limited number of samples.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

Body composition of the human lower extremity observed by computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Masataka; Hasegawa, Makiko; Wu, Chung-Lei; Mimaru, Osamu

1987-01-01

Using computed tomography image, the body composition on the lower extremity were observed in 24 adult human (10 male, 14 female). CT image were taken at proximal section (upper a third on thigh), distal section (lower a third on thigh) and leg section (upper a third on leg), and the quantities determind from the images included the area of total cross-section, muscle, subcutaneous fat, connective tissue and bone in the each cross-section. The ratios of the each components to total area were surveyed. The age related changes and the differences between the three body types, which were defined by Rohrer's index, were discussed in both sexes. The following results were obtained. 1. The ratio of the each component to total sectional area in the three section levels was the highest in the muscle following in order of subcutaneous fat, connective tissue and bone in man generally. On the other hand, in female, the subcutaneous fat was higher than the muscle in the proximal section by A and C body types, but the muscle was higher than the subcutaneous fat by D body type in this section and by all body types in distal and leg sections. 2. Concerning the correlationship between the ratios of the components in the section and Rohrer's index or ages, they were in positive relation on the ratios of the subcutaneous fat and the connective tissue, and were in negative relation on the ratio of the muscle in the femoral section by male. 3. Decreasing with age of muscular area were found at under 50 ages in extensor, at 50 age in adductor and at about 60 ages in flexor on the proximal section, and at 50 age in extensor, after 55 age in adductor and at about 60 age in flexor on the distal section in man respectively. On the leg section, the decreasing tendency with ages were predominant in flexor by man and were found after 50 age by female too. (author)

Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

2008-01-01

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

Climate change and extreme events in weather

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.

reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

Body image and body change: predictive factors in an Iranian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrusi, Behshid; Garousi, Saeide; Baneshi, Mohammad R

2013-08-01

Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD) of age was 31.06 (10.24) years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.

Body image and body change: Predictive factors in an Iranian population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behshid Garrusi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI, Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD of age was 31.06 (10.24 years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.

Body Image and Body Change: Predictive Factors in an Iranian Population

Science.gov (United States)

Garrusi, Behshid; Garousi, Saeide; Baneshi, Mohammad R.

2013-01-01

Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD) of age was 31.06 (10.24) years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted. PMID:24049621

Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

2017-12-01

A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes

Projected Changes in Temperature Extremes in China Using PRECIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yujing Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95, the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5, high-temperature days (HTD and low-temperature days (LTD. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are used in the research. The results show that: (1 Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2 By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099, both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990 in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3 The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4 The intensity of the warm (cold extremes would increase (decrease significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5 by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the

Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2014-12-01

During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

Evolution of extreme body size disparity in monitor lizards (Varanus).

Science.gov (United States)

Collar, David C; Schulte, James A; Losos, Jonathan B

2011-09-01

Many features of species' biology, including life history, physiology, morphology, and ecology are tightly linked to body size. Investigation into the causes of size divergence is therefore critical to understanding the factors shaping phenotypic diversity within clades. In this study, we examined size evolution in monitor lizards (Varanus), a clade that includes the largest extant lizard species, the Komodo dragon (V. komodoensis), as well as diminutive species that are nearly four orders of magnitude smaller in adult body mass. We demonstrate that the remarkable body size disparity of this clade is a consequence of different selective demands imposed by three major habitat use patterns-arboreality, terrestriality, and rock-dwelling. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships and ancestral habitat use and applied model selection to determine that the best-fitting evolutionary models for species' adult size are those that infer oppositely directed adaptive evolution associated with terrestriality and rock-dwelling, with terrestrial lineages evolving extremely large size and rock-dwellers becoming very small. We also show that habitat use affects the evolution of several ecologically important morphological traits independently of body size divergence. These results suggest that habitat use exerts a strong, multidimensional influence on the evolution of morphological size and shape disparity in monitor lizards. © 2011 The Author(s).

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Science.gov (United States)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Transcriptome and network changes in climbers at extreme altitudes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Fang; Zhang, Wei; Liang, Yu

2012-01-01

Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are lar...

Identification of Climate Change with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahayu, Anita

2013-01-01

Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.

Numerical Simulation of Floating Bodies in Extreme Free Surface Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zheng Zheng; Causon, Derek; Mingham, Clive; Qiang, Ling

2010-05-01

A task of the EPSRC funded research project 'Extreme Wave loading on Offshore Wave Energy Devices: a Hierarchical Team Approach' is to investigate the survivability of two wave energy converter (WEC) devices Pelamis and the Manchester Bobber using different CFD approaches. Both devices float on the water surface, generating the electricity from the motion of the waves. In this paper, we describe developments of the AMAZON-SC 3D numerical wave tank (NWT) to study extreme wave loading of a fixed or floating (in Heave motion) structure. The extreme wave formulation as an inlet condition is due to Dalzell (1999) and Ning et. al. (2009) in which a first or second-order Stokes focused wave can be prescribed. The AMAZON-SC 3D code (see e.g. Hu et al. (2009)) uses a cell centred finite volume method of the Godunov-type for the space discretization of the Euler and Navier Stokes equations. The computational domain includes both air and water regions with the air/water boundary captured as a discontinuity in the density field thereby admitting the break up and recombination of the free surface. Temporal discretisation uses the artificial compressibility method and a dual time stepping strategy to maintain a divergence free velocity field. Cartesian cut cells are used to provide a fully boundary-fitted gridding capability on an regular background Cartesian grid. Solid objects are cut out of the background mesh leaving a set of irregularly shaped cells fitted to the boundary. The advantages of the cut cell approach have been outlined previously by Causon et al. (2000, 2001) including its flexibility for dealing with complex geometries whether stationary or in relative motion. The field grid does not need to be recomputed globally or even locally for moving body cases; all that is necessary is to update the local cut cell data at the body contour for as long as the motion continues. The handing of numerical wave paddles and device motion in a NWT is therefore straightforward

Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States

OpenAIRE

Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson

2016-01-01

Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

Performance testing of extremity dosimeters, Study 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harty, R.; Reece, W.D.; Hooker, C.D.

1990-04-01

The Health Physics Society Standards Committee (HPSSC) Working Group on Performance Testing of Extremity Dosimeters has issued a draft of a proposed standard for extremity dosimeters. The draft standard proposes methods to be used for testing dosimetry systems that determine occupational radiation dose to the extremities and the performance criterion used to determine compliance with the standard. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted two separate evaluations of the performance of extremity dosimeter processors to determine the appropriateness of the draft standard, as well as to obtain information regarding the performance of extremity dosimeters. Based on the information obtained during the facility visits and the results obtained from the performance testing, it was recommended that changes be made to ensure that the draft standard is appropriate for extremity dosimeters. The changes include: subdividing the mixture category and the beta particle category; eliminating the neutron category until appropriate flux-to-dose equivalent conversion factors are derived; and changing the tolerance level for the performance criterion to provide consistency with the performance criterion for whole body dosimeters, and to avoid making the draft standard overly difficult for processors of extremity dosimeters to pass. 20 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

Novel application of lower body positive-pressure in the rehabilitation of an individual with multiple lower extremity fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Takacs, Judit; Leiter, Jeff R S; Peeler, Jason D

2011-06-01

Lower extremity fractures, if not treated appropriately, can increase the risk of morbidity. Partial weight-bearing after surgical repair is recommended; however, current methods of partial weight-bearing may cause excessive loads through the lower extremity. A new rehabilitation tool that uses lower body positive-pressure is described, that may allow partial weight-bearing while preventing excessive loads, thereby improving functional outcomes. A patient with multiple lower extremity fractures underwent a 6-month rehabilitation programme using bodyweight support technology 3 times per week, post-surgery. The patient experienced a reduction in pain and an improvement in ankle range of motion (p=0.002), walking speed (p>0.05) and physical function (p=0.004), as assessed by the Foot and Ankle Module of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons Lower Limb Outcomes Assessment Instrument. Training did not appear to affect fracture healing, as was evident on radiograph. The effect of lower body positive-pressure on effusion, which has not previously been reported in the literature, was also investigated. No significant difference in effusion of the foot and ankle when using lower body positive-pressure was found. Initial results suggest that this new technology may be a useful rehabilitation tool that allows partial weight-bearing during the treatment of lower extremity injuries.

Body composition analysis by DEXA by using dynamically changing samarium filtration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gotfredsen, Arne; Baeksgaard, L; Hilsted, J

1997-01-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) has a high accuracy for body composition analysis but is influenced by beam hardening and other error sources in the extremes of measurement. To compensate for beam hardening, the Norland XR-36 introduces a dynamically changing samarium filtration system......). Scans of six healthy volunteers covered with combinations of beef and lard (approximately 5-15 kg) showed a good agreement (r = 0.99) between reference and DEXA values of added soft tissue mass and fat percentage. We conclude that the DEXA method (and, in particular, the Norland XR-36 using dynamic...

Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.

2008-01-01

Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

White matter microstructure changes induced by motor skill learning utilizing a body machine interface.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xue; Casadio, Maura; Weber, Kenneth A; Mussa-Ivaldi, Ferdinando A; Parrish, Todd B

2014-03-01

The purpose of this study is to identify white matter microstructure changes following bilateral upper extremity motor skill training to increase our understanding of learning-induced structural plasticity and enhance clinical strategies in physical rehabilitation. Eleven healthy subjects performed two visuo-spatial motor training tasks over 9 sessions (2-3 sessions per week). Subjects controlled a cursor with bilateral simultaneous movements of the shoulders and upper arms using a body machine interface. Before the start and within 2days of the completion of training, whole brain diffusion tensor MR imaging data were acquired. Motor training increased fractional anisotropy (FA) values in the posterior and anterior limbs of the internal capsule, the corona radiata, and the body of the corpus callosum by 4.19% on average indicating white matter microstructure changes induced by activity-dependent modulation of axon number, axon diameter, or myelin thickness. These changes may underlie the functional reorganization associated with motor skill learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

Science.gov (United States)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

Deep-body temperature changes in rats exposed to chronic centrifugation.

Science.gov (United States)

Oyama, J.; Platt, W. T.; Holland, V. B.

1971-01-01

Deep-body temperature was monitored continuously by implant biotelemetry in unrestrained rats before, during, and after exposure to prolonged and almost continuous centrifugation. Rats subjected to centrifugation for the first time at various G loads ranging up to 2.5 G show a rapid and significant fall in temperature which is sustained below normal levels for periods as long as 3 days. The magnitude of the temperature fall and the recovery time were generally proportional to the G load imposed. The initial fall and recovery of body temperature closely parallels the decrease in food consumption and to a lesser degree the decrease in body mass experienced by centrifuged rats. After exposure to 2 weeks of centrifugation, rats show either no change or only a small transient increase in temperature when decelerated to a lower G level or when returned to normal gravity. Rats repeatedly exposed to centrifugation consistently showed a smaller temperature response compared to the initial exposure. Implant temperature biotelemetry has been found to be a sensitive, reliable, and extremely useful technique for assessing the initial stress of centrifugation and in monitoring the time course of recovery and acclimation of rats to increase as well as*decrease G.

Introduction to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John E. Hay

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This Special Issue documents not only the more recent progress made in detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, but also in projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales. It also deals with the impacts and other consequences and implications of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events. Impact assessments using both dynamical downscaling and statistical modelling for two tropical cyclones are reported, as well as for storm surge and extreme wave changes. The Special Issue concludes with a consideration of some policy implications and practical applications arising from our relatively robust understanding of how the build up of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects weather and climate extremes.

Total body fat percentage and body mass index and the association with lower extremity injuries in children: a 2.5-year longitudinal study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jespersen, E.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Holst, R.; Klakk, H.; Heidemann, M.; Rexen, C.T.; Franz, C.; Wedderkopp, N.

2014-01-01

Background Overweight youths are generally recognised as being at increased risk of sustaining lower extremity injuries in sports. However, previous studies are inconclusive and choices for measuring overweight are manifold. Objective To examine two different measures of overweight, body mass index

Quantifying the consequences of changing hydroclimatic extremes on protection levels for the Rhine

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Hegnauer, Mark; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Lammersen, Rita; van den Boogaard, Henk; Beersma, Jules

2017-04-01

The Dutch method for quantifying the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of discharge extremes in the Rhine basin and the potential influence of climate change hereon are presented. In the Netherlands flood protection design requires estimates of discharge extremes for return periods of 1000 up to 100,000 years. Observed discharge records are too short to derive such extreme return discharges, therefore extreme value assessment is based on very long synthetic discharge time-series generated with the Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE). The GRADE instrument consists of (1) a stochastic weather generator based on time series resampling of historical f rainfall and temperature and (2) a hydrological model optimized following the GLUE methodology and (3) a hydrodynamic model to simulate the propagation of flood waves based on the generated hydrological time-series. To assess the potential influence of climate change, the four KNMI'14 climate scenarios are applied. These four scenarios represent a large part of the uncertainty provided by the GCMs used for the IPCC 5th assessment report (the CMIP5 GCM simulations under different climate forcings) and are for this purpose tailored to the Rhine and Meuse river basins. To derive the probability distributions of extreme discharges under climate change the historical synthetic rainfall and temperature series simulated with the weather generator are transformed to the future following the KNMI'14 scenarios. For this transformation the Advanced Delta Change method, which allows that the changes in the extremes differ from those in the means, is used. Subsequently the hydrological model is forced with the historical and future (i.e. transformed) synthetic time-series after which the propagation of the flood waves is simulated with the hydrodynamic model to obtain the extreme discharge statistics both for current and future climate conditions. The study shows that both for 2050 and 2085 increases in discharge

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

Climate Extremes and Land-Use Change: Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Services

Science.gov (United States)

Bahn, Michael; Erb, Karlheinz; Hasibeder, Roland; Mayr, Stefan; Niedertscheider, Maria; Oberhuber, Walter; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich; Viovy, Nicolas; Wieser, Gerhard

2016-04-01

Extreme climatic events, in particular droughts and heatwaves, have significant impacts on ecosystem carbon and water cycles and a range of related ecosystem services. It is expected that in the coming decades the return intervals and severities of extreme droughts will increase substantially and may result in the passing of thresholds of ecosystem functioning, potentially causing legacy effects, which are so far poorly understood. Observational evidence suggests that different land cover types (forest, grassland) are differently influenced by extreme drought, but there is a lack of knowledge whether and how future, increasingly severe climate extremes will affect their concurrent and lagged responses, as well as land-use decisions determining future shifts in land cover. The ClimLUC project aims to understand how extreme summer drought affects carbon and water dynamics of mountain ecosystems under different land uses, and to analyse implications for ecosystem service provisioning. Overall, we hypothesize that land-use change alters the effects of extreme summer drought on ecosystem processes and the related services, grassland responding more rapidly and strongly but being more resilient to extreme drought than forest. To address the aims and hypotheses, we will 1) test experimentally how (a) a managed, (b) an abandoned mountain grassland and (c) an adjacent subalpine forest respond to a progressive extreme drought and will analyse threshold responses of carbon and water dynamics and their implications for ecosystem services (timber and fodder production, carbon sequestration, water provisioning); 2) quantify carry-over effects of the extreme event on ecosystem processes and services; 3) project and attribute future carbon and water cycle responses to extreme drought and related socio-economic changes, based on a process-based dynamic general vegetation model; 4) analyse the interrelation between land-use changes and the occurrence and severity of past and future

Extreme daily precipitation in Western Europe with climate change at appropriate spatial scales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Booij, Martijn J.

2002-01-01

Extreme daily precipitation for the current and changed climate at appropriate spatial scales is assessed. This is done in the context of the impact of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse in Western Europe. The objective is achieved by determining and comparing extreme precipitation from

Aging changes in body shape

Science.gov (United States)

... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003998.htm Aging changes in body shape To use the sharing ... and both sexes. Height loss is related to aging changes in the bones, muscles, and joints. People ...

General relativistic dynamics of an extreme mass-ratio binary interacting with an external body

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Huan; Casals, Marc

2017-10-01

We study the dynamics of a hierarchical three-body system in the general relativistic regime: an extreme mass-ratio inner binary under the tidal influence of an external body. The inner binary consists of a central Schwarzschild black hole and a test body moving around it. We discuss three types of tidal effects on the orbit of the test body. First, the angular momentum of the inner binary precesses around the angular momentum of the outer binary. Second, the tidal field drives a "transient resonance" when the radial and azimuthal frequencies are commensurable. In contrast with resonances driven by the gravitational self-force, this tidal-driven resonance may boost the orbital angular momentum and eccentricity (a relativistic version of the Kozai-Lidov effect). Finally, for an orbit-dynamical effect during the nonresonant phase, we calculate the correction to the innermost stable circular (mean) orbit due to the tidal interaction. Hierarchical three-body systems are potential sources for future space-based gravitational wave missions, and the tidal effects that we find could contribute significantly to their waveform.

Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Matthews

2016-01-01

Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

Climate change : Behavioral responses from extreme events and delayed damages

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, Giacomo; Casari, Marco

2017-01-01

Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occur after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

Climate Change : Behavioral Responses from Extreme Events and Delayed Damages

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, G.; Casari, Marco

2017-01-01

Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occurs after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a

Temperature extremes in a changing climate: Drivers and feedbacks (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.

2013-12-01

Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012). This presentation provides an overview of past and projected changes in hot extremes on the global and regional scale, and of the respective drivers and feedbacks responsible for their occurrence. In particular, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks have been identified as major drivers for hot extremes (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010; Hirschi et al. 2011). Recently, a global study (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012) has shown that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed, with for instance large hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Further results indicate that this relationship could be better used in the context of seasonal forecasting, allowing an early warning of impending hot summers (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Orth and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, the role of soil moisture-climate feedbacks for climate projections will also be discussed (e.g. Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2013). Finally, we will address the relevance of the identified feedbacks in the context of urban climate, as well as potential relevant impacts of other land-climate interactions (e.g. from modifications in surface albedo). References: Hirschi, M., et al., 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Orth, R. and S.I. Seneviratne

Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...... in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases...

Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. J. Pitman

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO₂ from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO₂, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO₂ except for one model where the CO₂-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Wijngaard, René R; Lutz, Arthur F; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B; Immerzeel, Walter W

2017-01-01

Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René R Wijngaard

Full Text Available Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

Science.gov (United States)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].

Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: an explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Balboa, C; Baselga-Cervera, B; García-Sanchez, A; Igual, J M; Lopez-Rodas, V; Costas, E

2013-11-15

Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These "lucky mutants" could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

2014-01-01

Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Tett, Simon F. B.; Yan, Zhongwei; Feng, Jinming

2018-01-01

Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and frosty nights in eastern China for the years 1960-2012 by using an optimal fingerprinting method. The observed long-term trends in the regional mean frequencies of these four indices were +2.36, +1.62, -0.94, -3.02 days decade-1. The models performed better in simulating the observed frequency change in daytime extreme temperatures than nighttime ones. Anthropogenic influences are detectable in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices. The influence of natural forcings could not be detected robustly in any indices. Further analysis found that the effects of GHGs changed the frequencies of summer days (tropical nights, icy days, frosty nights) by +3.48 ± 1.45 (+2.99 ± 1.35, -2.52 ± 1.28, -4.11 ± 1.48) days decade-1. Other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominated by anthropogenic aerosols) offset the GHG effect and changed the frequencies of these four indices by -1.53 ± 0.78, -1.49 ± 0.94, +1.84 ± 1.07, +1.45 ± 1.26 days decade-1, respectively. Little influence of natural forcings was found in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices.

How cancer survivors experience their changed body encountering others.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Dorte Malig; Hansen, Helle Ploug; Elverdam, Beth

2010-04-01

Psychosocial cancer research illustrates how women treated for breast cancer experience physical changes in their bodies and the way they perceive, that, others see their body. But how patients with other types of cancer have experienced changes in their bodies and how this affects their relationship with others is less researched. To explore how cancer survivors with different types of cancer and cancer treatment, experience and handle their changed body, especially when meeting others, and how this influences their everyday life of survivorship, i.e. long after treatment has been completed. Participant observation at a Cancer Rehabilitation Centre (CRC). Of the observed participants 23 were selected and interviewed twice. Many participants had a changed body due to the cancer and its treatment. When the cancer survivors meet others they experience that their changed body means that they are avoided, looked at in specific ways, or greeted with a specific compliment. The verbal and nonverbal language that the cancer survivors are met with indicates the existence of a specific discursive aesthetic in relation to the disease and the changed body. This discursive aesthetic represents a silence and secrecy about cancer, which makes it impossible for survivors to talk about their experiences with cancer and a changed body. The changed body not only represents the physical sign of cancer, it also represents the social presence and representation of cancer. The analysis gives an insight into general questions of meaning related to the changed body in late modernity. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

2017-12-05

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

Temporal changes in morality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Whanhee; Choi, Hayon Michelle; Kim, Dahye; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2018-03-01

Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972-2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003-2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972-1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

21st Century Changes in Precipitation Extremes Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Monier, E.

2014-12-01

Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, a validated analogue method is employed to diagnose the potential future shifts in the probability of extreme precipitation over the United States under global warming. The method is based on the use of the resolved large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) to detect the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The CMIP5 multi-model projections have been compiled for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The application of such analogue method to detect other types of hazard events, i.e. landslides is also explored. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.

Growth Curve Analysis and Change-Points Detection in Extremes

KAUST Repository

Meng, Rui

2016-05-15

The thesis consists of two coherent projects. The first project presents the results of evaluating salinity tolerance in barley using growth curve analysis where different growth trajectories are observed within barley families. The study of salinity tolerance in plants is crucial to understanding plant growth and productivity. Because fully-automated smarthouses with conveyor systems allow non-destructive and high-throughput phenotyping of large number of plants, it is now possible to apply advanced statistical tools to analyze daily measurements and to study salinity tolerance. To compare different growth patterns of barley variates, we use functional data analysis techniques to analyze the daily projected shoot areas. In particular, we apply the curve registration method to align all the curves from the same barley family in order to summarize the family-wise features. We also illustrate how to use statistical modeling to account for spatial variation in microclimate in smarthouses and for temporal variation across runs, which is crucial for identifying traits of the barley variates. In our analysis, we show that the concentrations of sodium and potassium in leaves are negatively correlated, and their interactions are associated with the degree of salinity tolerance. The second project studies change-points detection methods in extremes when multiple time series data are available. Motived by the scientific question of whether the chances to experience extreme weather are different in different seasons of a year, we develop a change-points detection model to study changes in extremes or in the tail of a distribution. Most of existing models identify seasons from multiple yearly time series assuming a season or a change-point location remains exactly the same across years. In this work, we propose a random effect model that allows the change-point to vary from year to year, following a given distribution. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are developed

Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akio Kitoh

2016-03-01

Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.

Prediction of body lipid change in pregnancy and lactation.

Science.gov (United States)

Friggens, N C; Ingvartsen, K L; Emmans, G C

2004-04-01

A simple method to predict the genetically driven pattern of body lipid change through pregnancy and lactation in dairy cattle is proposed. The rationale and evidence for genetically driven body lipid change have their basis in evolutionary considerations and in the homeorhetic changes in lipid metabolism through the reproductive cycle. The inputs required to predict body lipid change are body lipid mass at calving (kg) and the date of conception (days in milk). Body lipid mass can be derived from body condition score and live weight. A key assumption is that there is a linear rate of change of the rate of body lipid change (dL/dt) between calving and a genetically determined time in lactation (T') at which a particular level of body lipid (L') is sought. A second assumption is that there is a linear rate of change of the rate of body lipid change (dL/dt) between T' and the next calving. The resulting model was evaluated using 2 sets of data. The first was from Holstein cows with 3 different levels of body fatness at calving. The second was from Jersey cows in first, second, and third parity. The model was found to reproduce the observed patterns of change in body lipid reserves through lactation in both data sets. The average error of prediction was low, less than the variation normally associated with the recording of condition score, and was similar for the 2 data sets. When the model was applied using the initially suggested parameter values derived from the literature the average error of prediction was 0.185 units of condition score (+/- 0.086 SD). After minor adjustments to the parameter values, the average error of prediction was 0.118 units of condition score (+/- 0.070 SD). The assumptions on which the model is based were sufficient to predict the changes in body lipid of both Holstein and Jersey cows under different nutritional conditions and parities. Thus, the model presented here shows that it is possible to predict genetically driven curves of body

Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: An explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Salamanca (IRNASA-CSIC), PO Box 257, 37071 Salamanca (Spain); Lopez-Rodas, V. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Costas, E., E-mail: ecostas@vet.ucm.es [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2013-11-15

Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change.

Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: An explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B.; García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M.; Lopez-Rodas, V.; Costas, E.

2013-01-01

Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.

2009-01-01

Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.

A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cattiaux, Julien

2010-01-01

Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Effects of Progressive Body Weight Support Treadmill Forward and Backward Walking Training on Stroke Patients' Affected Side Lower Extremity's Walking Ability.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyunghoon; Lee, Sukmin; Lee, Kyoungbo

2014-12-01

[Purpose] The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of progressive body weight supported treadmill forward and backward walking training (PBWSTFBWT), progressive body weight supported treadmill forward walking training (PBWSTFWT), progressive body weight supported treadmill backward walking training (PBWSTBWT), on stroke patients' affected side lower extremity's walking ability. [Subjects and Methods] A total of 36 chronic stroke patients were divided into three groups with 12 subjects in each group. Each of the groups performed one of the progressive body weight supported treadmill training methods for 30 minute, six times per week for three weeks, and then received general physical therapy without any other intervention until the follow-up tests. For the assessment of the affected side lower extremity's walking ability, step length of the affected side, stance phase of the affected side, swing phase of the affected side, single support of the affected side, and step time of the affected side were measured using optogait and the symmetry index. [Results] In the within group comparisons, all the three groups showed significant differences between before and after the intervention and in the comparison of the three groups, the PBWSTFBWT group showed more significant differences in all of the assessed items than the other two groups. [Conclusion] In the present study progressive body weight supported treadmill training was performed in an environment in which the subjects were actually walked, and PBWSTFBWT was more effective at efficiently training stroke patients' affected side lower extremity's walking ability.

Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

Addressing extreme precipitation change under future climates in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while

Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan

projections for estimation of changes in extreme rainfall characteristics. Climate model projections from 20 regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES data archive were used in the analysis. Two different estimation methods were applied, using, respectively, a direct estimation of the changes...... in the extreme value statistics of the RCM data, and application of a stochastic weather generator fitted to the changes in rainfall characteristics from the RCM data. The results show a large variability in the projected changes in extreme precipitation between the different RCMs and the two estimation methods...

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

OpenAIRE

Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

2010-01-01

This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lenderink, Geert; Van Meijgaard, Erik

2010-01-01

Relations between hourly precipitation extremes and atmospheric temperature and moisture derived for the present-day climate are studied with the aim of understanding the behavior (and the uncertainty in predictions) of hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate. A dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the daily mean 2 m temperature of approximately two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is found for temperatures above 10 deg. C. This is a robust relation obtained in four observational records across western Europe. A dependency following the CC relation can be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric (absolute) humidity with temperature, whereas the enhanced dependency (compared to the CC relation) appears to be caused by dynamical feedbacks owing to excess latent heat release in extreme showers. Integrations with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 at 25 km grid spacing show that changes in hourly precipitation extremes may indeed considerably exceed the prediction from the CC relation. The results suggests that increases of + 70% or even more are possible by the end of this century. However, a different regional model (CLM operated at ETHZ) predicts much smaller increases; this is probably caused by a too strong sensitivity of this model to a decrease in relative humidity.

Effort-reward imbalance and one-year change in neck-shoulder and upper extremity pain among call center computer operators.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Niklas; Burgel, Barbara; Rempel, David

2010-01-01

The literature on psychosocial job factors and musculoskeletal pain is inconclusive in part due to insufficient control for confounding by biomechanical factors. The aim of this study was to investigate prospectively the independent effects of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) at work on regional musculoskeletal pain of the neck and upper extremities of call center operators after controlling for (i) duration of computer use both at work and at home, (ii) ergonomic workstation design, (iii) physical activities during leisure time, and (iv) other individual worker characteristics. This was a one-year prospective study among 165 call center operators who participated in a randomized ergonomic intervention trial that has been described previously. Over an approximate four-week period, we measured ERI and 28 potential confounders via a questionnaire at baseline. Regional upper-body pain and computer use was measured by weekly surveys for up to 12 months following the implementation of ergonomic interventions. Regional pain change scores were calculated as the difference between average weekly pain scores pre- and post intervention. A significant relationship was found between high average ERI ratios and one-year increases in right upper-extremity pain after adjustment for pre-intervention regional mean pain score, current and past physical workload, ergonomic workstation design, and anthropometric, sociodemographic, and behavioral risk factors. No significant associations were found with change in neck-shoulder or left upper-extremity pain. This study suggests that ERI predicts regional upper-extremity pain in -computer operators working >or=20 hours per week. Control for physical workload and ergonomic workstation design was essential for identifying ERI as a risk factor.

Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

2018-01-01

Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

Changes in body weight, body composition, and eating attitudes in high school wrestlers.

Science.gov (United States)

Shriver, Lenka Humenikova; Betts, Nancy Mulhollen; Payton, Mark Edward

2009-08-01

Many wrestlers engage in chronic dieting and rapid "weight cutting" throughout the year to compete in a category below their natural weight. Such weight-management practices have a negative influence on their health and nutritional status, so the National Wrestling Coaches Association implemented a new weight-management program for high school wrestlers in 2006. The purpose of this study was to determine whether seasonal changes in weight, body fat, and eating attitudes occur among high school wrestlers after the implementation of the new weight-management rule. Fifteen high school wrestlers participated in the study. Their weight, body composition, and eating attitudes were measured preseason, in-season, and off-season. Body fat was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Attitudes toward dieting, food, and body weight were assessed using the Eating Attitude Test (EAT). No significant changes in body fat were detected from preseason to off-season. Weight increased from preseason to in-season (p < .05) and off-season (p < .05). Although the EAT score did not change significantly from preseason to off-season, 60% reported "thinking about burning up calories when exercising" during preseason, and only 40% felt that way during the season (p < .05) and 47% during, off-season (p < .05). The wrestlers experienced a significant weight gain from preseason to off-season with no significant changes in body fat. Their eating attitudes did not change significantly from preseason to off-season in this study, but further research using a large sample of high school wrestlers is warranted to confirm these findings.

Menstrual Changes in Body Composition of Female Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Stachoń, Aleksandra Jadwiga

2016-06-01

The aim of the study was to determine whether the tendencies and scope of changes in body mass, body composition and body girths across the menstrual cycle were similar or different in women of different body build. Anthropometric examinations were carried out in a group of 40 naturally regularly menstruated females practicing team sports (aged 19-21, B-v 169.3+/-6.4 cm, body mass 59.6+/-7.0 kg), in the follicular, periovulatory and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle. The phases were determined on the basis of data from two consecutive menstrual cycles taking into account the cycle’s length. To establish the type of body build, Body Mass Index, hydration status and skinfold thickness were measured. For a statistical analysis, a multiple comparisons with multiple confidence intervals were applied. The increase in body mass between the follicular and the luteal phases was observed in all groups of women, the biggest gain was recorded in slim women, who in the luteal phase weighted 0.8 kg more. The amount of fat mass increased significantly across the menstrual cycle only in more hydrated (by about 0.66 kg) and slim women (by about 0.54 kg). Significant changes between consecutive phases of the menstrual cycle in waist and hip girths, and suprailiac skinfold thickness in some groups of women also indicate influence of fatness and hydration status and slenderness. In view of the presented results, the body build seems important for an analysis of the pattern of each component’s changes across the menstrual cycle, especially for female athletes. Certain changes can be seen only in some groups of women, therefore somatic features can be considered as a predictor of the intensity of changes.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Sex-specific relationships of physical activity, body composition, and muscle quality with lower-extremity physical function in older men and women.

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Straight, Chad R; Brady, Anne O; Evans, Ellen

2015-03-01

This study aims to determine the sex-specific relationships of physical activity, body composition, and muscle quality with lower-extremity physical function in older men and women. Seventy-nine community-dwelling men (n = 39; mean [SD] age, 76.1 [6.2] y; mean [SD] body mass index, 27.3 [3.8] kg/m(2)) and women (n = 40; mean [SD] age, 75.8 [5.5] y; mean [SD] body mass index, 27.0 [3.8] kg/m(2)) were assessed for physical activity via questionnaire, body composition via dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scanning, leg extension power using the Nottingham power rig, and muscle quality (W/kg; the ratio of leg extension power [W] to lower-body mineral-free lean mass [kg]). A composite measure of physical function was obtained by summing Z scores from the 6-minute walk, 8-ft up-and-go test, and 30-second chair-stand test. As expected, men had significantly greater levels of physical activity, lower adiposity, greater lean mass, higher leg extension power, and greater muscle quality compared with women (all P physical activity were the strongest predictors of lower-extremity physical function in men and independently explained 42% and 29% of the variance, respectively. In women, muscle quality (16%) and percent body fat (12%) were independent predictors after adjustment for covariates. Muscle quality is the strongest predictor of lower-extremity physical function in men and women, but sex impacts the importance of physical activity and adiposity. These findings suggest that older men and women may benefit from different intervention strategies for preventing physical disability and also highlight the importance of weight management for older women to preserve physical function.

Negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increases pain perception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michihiro Osumi

Full Text Available Changing the visual body appearance by use of as virtual reality system, funny mirror, or binocular glasses has been reported to be helpful in rehabilitation of pain. However, there are interindividual differences in the analgesic effect of changing the visual body image. We hypothesized that a negative body image associated with changing the visual body appearance causes interindividual differences in the analgesic effect although the relationship between the visual body appearance and analgesic effect has not been clarified. We investigated whether a negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increased pain. Twenty-five healthy individuals participated in this study. To evoke a negative body image, we applied the method of rubber hand illusion. We created an "injured rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with pain, a "hairy rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with embarrassment, and a "twisted rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with deviation from the concept of normality. We also created a "normal rubber hand" as a control. The pain threshold was measured while the participant observed the rubber hand using a device that measured pain caused by thermal stimuli. Body ownership experiences were elicited by observation of the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand as well as the normal rubber hand. Participants felt more unpleasantness by observing the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand than the normal rubber hand and twisted rubber hand (p<0.001. The pain threshold was lower under the injured rubber hand condition than with the other conditions (p<0.001. We conclude that a negative body appearance associated with pain can increase pain sensitivity.

Effects of body position and extension of the neck and extremities on lung volume measured via computed tomography in red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans).

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Mans, Christoph; Drees, Randi; Sladky, Kurt K; Hatt, Jean-Michel; Kircher, Patrick R

2013-10-15

To determine the effects of body position and extension of the neck and extremities on CT measurements of ventilated lung volume in red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans). Prospective crossover-design study. 14 adult red-eared slider turtles. CT was performed on turtles in horizontal ventral recumbent and vertical left lateral recumbent, right lateral recumbent, and caudal recumbent body positions. In sedated turtles, evaluations were performed in horizontal ventral recumbent body position with and without extension of the neck and extremities. Lung volumes were estimated from helical CT images with commercial software. Effects of body position, extremity and neck extension, sedation, body weight, and sex on lung volume were analyzed. Mean ± SD volume of dependent lung tissue was significantly decreased in vertical left lateral (18.97 ± 14.65 mL), right lateral (24.59 ± 19.16 mL), and caudal (9.23 ± 12.13 mL) recumbent positions, compared with the same region for turtles in horizontal ventral recumbency (48.52 ± 20.08 mL, 50.66 ± 18.08 mL, and 31.95 ± 15.69 mL, respectively). Total lung volume did not differ among positions because of compensatory increases in nondependent lung tissue. Extension of the extremities and neck significantly increased total lung volume (127.94 ± 35.53 mL), compared with that in turtles with the head, neck, and extremities withdrawn into the shell (103.24 ± 40.13 mL). Vertical positioning of red-eared sliders significantly affected lung volumes and could potentially affect interpretation of radiographs obtained in these positions. Extension of the extremities and neck resulted in the greatest total lung volume.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Interdecadal Change in Extreme Precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu

2009-01-01

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

Science.gov (United States)

Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

2015-09-01

In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

2009-12-01

The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long

Changes in the volume and circumference of the torso, leg and arm after cycling in the heat determined using 3D whole body scanners : conference paper, Lugano, Switzerland,

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hein, Daanen; Vonk, L.A.

2016-01-01

Whole body volume changes due to sweat loss after exercise in the heat are well documented, but little is known about the relative contribution of the torso and extremities to these volume changes. It is the purpose of this study to quantify these effects. Therefore, seven healthy male subjects were

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

Science.gov (United States)

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Role of media and peers on body change strategies among adult men: is body size important?

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McCabe, Marita P; McGreevy, Shauna J

2011-01-01

There has been limited previous research that has examined the role of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult men. The current study investigated the role of specific types of messages (encouragement, teasing and modelling) from peers and the media on the strategies to change weight among adult men. Differences were evaluated between 526 men aged from 18 to 60 years from three groups (normal weight, overweight and obese) on body image, body change strategies and messages about their body received from peers and the media. Men were primarily drawn from United States, Australia and Europe. Results showed that messages received by men regarding losing weight or increasing muscle size differed according to weight. Body image and media messages were the strongest predictors of losing weight, whereas body image importance and messages from peers were the strongest predictors of increasing muscles. These findings highlight the importance of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult males. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

Science.gov (United States)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban

Evaluation of modeled changes in extreme precipitation in Europe and the Rhine basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haren, Ronald van; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Lenderink, Geert; Hazeleger, Wilco

2013-01-01

In this study, we investigate the change in multi-day precipitation extremes in late winter in Europe using observations and climate models. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models can accurately reproduce observed trends and, if not, to find the causes of the difference in trends. Similarly to an earlier finding for mean precipitation trends, and despite a lower signal to noise ratio, climate models fail to reproduce the increase in extremes in much of northern Europe: the model simulations do not cover the observed trend in large parts of this area. A dipole in the sea-level pressure trend over continental Europe causes positive trends in extremes in northern Europe and negative trends in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate models have a much weaker pressure trend dipole and as a result a much weaker (extreme) precipitation response. The inability of climate models to correctly simulate observed changes in atmospheric circulation is also primarily responsible for the underestimation of trends in the Rhine basin. When it has been adjusted for the circulation trend mismatch, the observed trend is well within the spread of the climate model simulations. Therefore, it is important that we improve our understanding of circulation changes, in particular related to the cause of the apparent mismatch between observed and modeled circulation trends over the past century. (letter)

[The reaction of human surface and inside body temperature to extreme hypothermia].

Science.gov (United States)

Panchenko, O A; Onishchenko, V O; Liakh, Iu Ie

2011-01-01

The dynamics of changes in the parameters of the surface and core body temperature under the systematic impact of ultra-low temperature is described in this article. As a source of ultra-low temperature was used (Cryo Therapy Chamber) Zimmer Medizin Systeme firm Zimmer Electromedizin (Germany) (-110 degrees C). Surface and internal body temperature was measured by infrared thermometer immediately before visiting cryochamber and immediately after exiting. In the study conducted 47,464 measurements of body temperature. It was established that the internal temperature of the human body under the influence of ultra-low temperatures in the proposed mode of exposure remains constant, and the surface temperature of the body reduces by an average of 11.57 degrees C. The time frame stabilization of adaptive processes of thermoregulation under the systematic impact of ultra-low temperature was defined in the study.

The changing appearance of the body in working life

OpenAIRE

Çetin, Ebru

2009-01-01

 Today the features of the workers and changes in newly founded working areas bring about new demands in the physical appearance of body and dressing. From this point of view, this article will focus on the changing appearances of body in working life. It will be attempted to relate consumption and fashion with the physical appearance of  body in working life and employment application period. The reasons why specifically the bodies who work for service sector are rendered as distintive and  ...

Serum levels of fetal antigen 1 in extreme nutritional States

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andries, Alin; Niemeier, Andreas; Støving, Rene K

2012-01-01

Objective. Recent data suggest that fetal antigen (FA1) is linked to disorders of body weight. Thus, we measured FA1 serum levels in two extreme nutritional states of morbid obesity (MO) and anorexia nervosa (AN) and monitored its response to weight changes. Design. FA1 and insulin serum...

Small body size and extreme cortical bone remodeling indicate phyletic dwarfism in Magyarosaurus dacus (Sauropoda: Titanosauria).

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Koen; Csiki, Zoltan; Rogers, Kristina Curry; Weishampel, David B; Redelstorff, Ragna; Carballido, Jose L; Sander, P Martin

2010-05-18

Sauropods were the largest terrestrial tetrapods (>10(5) kg) in Earth's history and grew at rates that rival those of extant mammals. Magyarosaurus dacus, a titanosaurian sauropod from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) of Romania, is known exclusively from small individuals (dwarfism (phyletic nanism) in dinosaurs, but a recent study suggested that the small Romanian titanosaurs actually represent juveniles of a larger-bodied taxon. Here we present strong histological evidence that M. dacus was indeed a dwarf (phyletic nanoid). Bone histological analysis of an ontogenetic series of Magyarosaurus limb bones indicates that even the smallest Magyarosaurus specimens exhibit a bone microstructure identical to fully mature or old individuals of other sauropod taxa. Comparison of histologies with large-bodied sauropods suggests that Magyarosaurus had an extremely reduced growth rate, but had retained high basal metabolic rates typical for sauropods. The uniquely decreased growth rate and diminutive body size in Magyarosaurus were adaptations to life on a Cretaceous island and show that sauropod dinosaurs were not exempt from general ecological principles limiting body size.

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

2016-03-01

The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

Effects of neuromuscular electrical stimulation on arterial hemodynamic properties and body composition in paretic upper extremities of patients with subacute stroke

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu-Chun Huang

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Neuromuscular electric stimulation (NMES induces repeated muscular contraction, possibly promoting the perfusion/oxygenation of the regional tissues. It remains unclear how NMES influences vascular hemodynamic property and segmental fluid distribution/composition in paretic extremities of hemiplegic patients. Methods: Eleven hemiplegic patients aged 62.6 ± 12.5 years in the subacute stage of stroke received NMES for paretic wrist extensor and flexor muscles 30 min daily, 5 days per week for 4 weeks. The non-paretic upper extremities (NPUE that did not receive NMES served as control. Distribution of fluid to intra/extracellular milieu and arterial hemodynamic properties were determined by using the multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance and pulse wave analysis, respectively. Results: Compared with NPUE without NMES, paretic upper extremity (PUE with NMES revealed a significantly less decrease in arterial blood flow, impedance quotient, slope quotient, and less increase in crest width and crest time of arterial pulse wave. NMES for 4 weeks increased body cell mass in PUE. Furthermore, NPUE without NMES reduced intracellular water, whereas PUE with NMES retarded loss of intracellular water after stroke. Conclusion: NMES therapy increases body cell mass, attenuates reduction of intracellular water, and alleviates arterial hemodynamic disturbance in PUE in subacute stroke. However, stroke-related physical deconditioning may negatively regulate body composition and impair hemodynamic function in NPUE.

Novel Zero-Heat-Flux Deep Body Temperature Measurement in Lower Extremity Vascular and Cardiac Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Mäkinen, Marja-Tellervo; Pesonen, Anne; Jousela, Irma; Päivärinta, Janne; Poikajärvi, Satu; Albäck, Anders; Salminen, Ulla-Stina; Pesonen, Eero

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare deep body temperature obtained using a novel noninvasive continuous zero-heat-flux temperature measurement system with core temperatures obtained using conventional methods. A prospective, observational study. Operating room of a university hospital. The study comprised 15 patients undergoing vascular surgery of the lower extremities and 15 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Zero-heat-flux thermometry on the forehead and standard core temperature measurements. Body temperature was measured using a new thermometry system (SpotOn; 3M, St. Paul, MN) on the forehead and with conventional methods in the esophagus during vascular surgery (n = 15), and in the nasopharynx and pulmonary artery during cardiac surgery (n = 15). The agreement between SpotOn and the conventional methods was assessed using the Bland-Altman random-effects approach for repeated measures. The mean difference between SpotOn and the esophageal temperature during vascular surgery was+0.08°C (95% limit of agreement -0.25 to+0.40°C). During cardiac surgery, during off CPB, the mean difference between SpotOn and the pulmonary arterial temperature was -0.05°C (95% limits of agreement -0.56 to+0.47°C). Throughout cardiac surgery (on and off CPB), the mean difference between SpotOn and the nasopharyngeal temperature was -0.12°C (95% limits of agreement -0.94 to+0.71°C). Poor agreement between the SpotOn and nasopharyngeal temperatures was detected in hypothermia below approximately 32°C. According to this preliminary study, the deep body temperature measured using the zero-heat-flux system was in good agreement with standard core temperatures during lower extremity vascular and cardiac surgery. However, agreement was questionable during hypothermia below 32°C. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observed change in extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2017-04-01

In spite of a relatively dry mean climate, the Mediterranean regions in Southern France use to experience heavy rainfalls over short durations - typically a few minutes to one day. Here we examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area, where many long homogeneous time-series are available. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series, according to their statistical dependence. This procedure substantially enhances the signal-to-noise ratio. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequencies for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200mm in one day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this risk ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events during the last decades. We argue that the diagnosed trends can hardly be explained without invoking the human influence on climate.

Emotional reactions following exposure to idealized bodies predict unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviors in women and men.

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Sara; Mussap, Alexander J

2007-06-01

We explored the extent to which changes in emotional states following exposure to images of idealized bodies predict unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviors in women and men, and whether particular psychological traits mediate these effects. One hundred thirty-three women and 93 men were assessed for unhealthy attitudes and behaviors related to body weight and muscles using the Eating Disorder Inventory-2 (EDI-2), the Obligatory Exercise Questionnaire, and the strategies to increase muscles subscale of the Body Change Inventory. Psychological traits assessed included body dissatisfaction (EDI-2), internalization of the thin/athletic ideal (Sociocultural Attitudes Towards Appearance Questionnaire-3), body comparison (Body Comparison Scale), self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Inventory), depression (Beck Depression Inventory-II), and identity confusion (Self-Concept Clarity Scale). Participants were then exposed to photographs of thin female models and muscular male models, and visual analogue scales were used to measure changes in postexposure state body dissatisfaction, anger, anxiety, and depression. Postexposure increases in state anger, anxiety, depression, and body dissatisfaction correlated with drive for thinness and disordered eating symptomatology in women, while postexposure increases in state body dissatisfaction correlated with muscle development in men. Analyses revealed that internalization and body comparison mediated these relationships, with trait body dissatisfaction, trait depression, self-esteem, and self-concept/identity confusion serving as mediators for women only. These results are indicative of gender differences in: (a) reactions to idealized bodies; (b) psychological traits that predispose individuals to experience these reactions; and (c) types of body change behavior that are associated with these reactions.

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-12-01

The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.

Discordance Between Body Mass Index (BMI) and a Novel Body Composition Change Index (BCCI) as Outcome Measures in Weight Change Interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Nugent, Stephen D; Kaats, Gilbert R; Preuss, Harry G

2018-01-01

A general assumption is that the body mass index (BMI) reflects changes in fat mass (FM). However, it fails to distinguish the type of weight that is lost or gained-fat mass (FM) or fat-free mass (FFM). The BMI treats both changes the same although they have opposite health consequences. The objective of this study was to propose a more precise measure, a body composition change index (BCCI), which distinguishes between changes in FM and FFM, and this study compares it with using the BMI as an outcome measure. Data were obtained from 3,870 subjects who had completed dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) total body scans at baseline and end-of-study when participating in a variety of weight-loss interventions. Since height remained constant in this adult cohort, changes in the BMI corresponded with scale weight changes (r = 0.994), allowing BMI changes to be converted to "lbs." to match the statistic used for calculation of the BCCI. The BCCI is calculated by scoring increases in FFM (lbs.) and decreases in FM (lbs.) as positive outcomes and scoring decreases in FFM and increases in FM as negative outcomes. The BCCI is the net sum of these calculations. Differences between scale weight changes and BCCI values were subsequently compared to obtain "discordance scores." Discordance scores ranged from 0.0 lbs. to >30.0 lbs. with a mean absolute value of between the two measures of 7.79 lbs. (99% confidence interval: 7.49-8.10, p BCCI and the BMI to evaluate the efficacy of weight loss interventions. If assessing changes in body composition is a treatment goal, use of the BMI could result in significantly erroneous conclusions.

Changing Body Image and Well-Being: Following the Experience of Massive Weight Loss and Body Contouring Surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jo Gilmartin

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper reports on the perception of changing body image and well-being for patients who had undergone plastic surgery following massive weight loss. The exploratory, qualitative study was undertaken with 20 patients from one teaching hospital in the south of England. Semi-structured interviews were carried out and a thematic analysis of the data undertaken. The results provide important insights regarding body contouring influencing body image change and the adjustment process involved. The ability to pursue self-esteem and the accruing social benefits is emphasized in the interrelated sub themes including social acceptance, undoing depression and sexual vitality. Body contouring surgery following massive weight loss appears to facilitate improvement in body image and well-being. Adjustment to the changing body image is both empowering and challenging. Supportive educational programmes need to be developed to assist this transition to a more positive body image and appreciation; these could usefully include access to and involvement with patient support groups.

Electric and magnetic fields at extremely low frequencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, L.E.; Kaune, W.T.

1989-01-01

Whole-body exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF, 30-300 Hz) electric fields may involve effects related to stimulation of the sensory apparatus at the body surface (hair vibration, possible direct neural stimulation) and effects within the body caused by the flow of current. Magnetic fields may interact predominantly by the induction of internal current flow. Biological effects observed in a living organism may depend on the electric fields induced inside the body, possibly on the magnetic fields penetrating into the body, and on the fields acting at the surface of the body. Areas in which effects have been observed often appear to be associated with the nervous system, including altered neuronal excitability and neurochemical changes, altered hormone levels, changes in behavioural responses, and changes in biological rhythms. No studies unequivocably demonstrate deleterious effects of ELF electric or magnetic field exposure on mammalian reproduction and development, but several suggest such effects. Exposure to ELF electric and magnetic fields does produce biological effects. However, except for fields strong enough to induce current densities above the threshold for the stimulation of nerve tissues, there is no consensus as to whether these effects constitute a hazard to human health. Human data from epidemiological studies, including reported effects on cancer promotion, congenital malformations, reproductive performance and general health, though somewhat suggestive of adverse health effects, are not conclusive. 274 refs, 13 figs, 6 tabs

Changes in body composition of cancer patients following combined nutritional support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohn, S.H.; Vartsky, D.; Vaswani, A.N.; Sawitsky, A.; Rai, K.; Gartenhaus, W.; Yasumura, S.; Ellis, K.J.

1982-01-01

The effects of combined nutritional support (parenteral, enteral, and oral) were measured in cancer patients unable to maintain normal alimentation.Changes in body composition were quantified by measurement of total body levels of nitrogen, potassium, water, and fat. The protein-calorie intake of the patients was also evaluated by dietary survey (4-day recall). Standard anthropometric and biochemical measurements for nutritional assessment were obtained for comparison. The dietary evaluation indicated that the dietary supplementation for all patients was more than adequate to meet their energy requirements. Determination of body composition indicated that change in body weight was equal to the sum of the changes in body protein, total body water, and total body fat. Information on the nature of the tissue gained was obtained by comparison of body composition data with the ratio of protein:water:lean body mass for normal tissue. The mean gain of protein in the cancer patients was quite small (0.3-0.6 kg). The main change in body weight appeared to be the result of gains in body water and body fat. The total body nitrogen to potassium ratio served to define the extent of tissue anabolism following hyperalimentation. The ratio dropped in the cancer patients following hyperalimentation toward the value of the control subjects on ad libitum diets. Total body nitrogen was determined by prompt gamma neutron activation analysis, total body potassium by whole-body counting

Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K.; Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L.

2009-06-01

Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

2009-06-15

Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A F Lutz

Full Text Available The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

Electric-field-induced extremely large change in resistance in graphene ferromagnets

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yu

2018-01-01

A colossal magnetoresistance (˜100×10^3% ) and an extremely large magnetoresistance (˜1×10^6% ) have been previously explored in manganite perovskites and Dirac materials, respectively. However, the requirement of an extremely strong magnetic field (and an extremely low temperature) makes them not applicable for realistic devices. In this work, we propose a device that can generate even larger changes in resistance in a zero-magnetic field and at a high temperature. The device is composed of graphene under two strips of yttrium iron garnet (YIG), where two gate voltages are applied to cancel the heavy charge doping in the YIG-induced half-metallic ferromagnets. By calculations using the Landauer-Büttiker formalism, we demonstrate that, when a proper gate voltage is applied on the free ferromagnet, changes in resistance up to 305×10^6% (16×10^3% ) can be achieved at the liquid helium (nitrogen) temperature and in a zero magnetic field. We attribute such a remarkable effect to a gate-induced full-polarization reversal in the free ferromagnet, which results in a metal-state to insulator-state transition in the device. We also find that the proposed effect can be realized in devices using other magnetic insulators, such as EuO and EuS. Our work should be helpful for developing a realistic switching device that is energy saving and CMOS-technology compatible.

Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Lu; Huang, Jie; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Liu, Meibing

2018-06-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April-June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986-2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities.

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

Treatment-Associated Changes in Body Composition, Health Behaviors, and Mood as Predictors of Change in Body Satisfaction in Obese Women: Effects of Age and Race/Ethnicity

Science.gov (United States)

Annesi, James J.; Tennant, Gisèle A.; Mareno, Nicole

2014-01-01

A lack of satisfaction with one's body is common among women with obesity, often prompting unhealthy "dieting." Beyond typically slow improvements in weight and body composition, behavioral factors might also affect change in body satisfaction. Age and race/ethnicity (African American vs. White) might moderate such change. Obese women (N…

Calculation of neutron fluence-to-dose conversion factors for extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, R.D.; Harty, R.; McDonald, J.C.; Tanner, J.E.

1993-04-01

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is developing a standard for the performance testing of personnel extremity dosimeters for the US Department of Energy. Part of this effort requires the calculation of neutron fluence-to-dose conversion factors for finger and wrist extremities. This study focuses on conversion factors for two types of extremity models: namely the polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) phantom (as specified in the draft standard for performance testing of extremity dosimeters) and more realistic extremity models composed of tissue-and-bone. Calculations for each type of model are based on both bare and D 2 O-moderated 252 Cf sources. The results are then tabulated and compared with whole-body conversion factors. More appropriate energy-averaged quality factors for the extremity models have also been computed from the neutron fluence in 50 equally spaced energy bins with energies from 2.53 x 10 -8 to 15 MeV. Tabulated results show that conversion factors for both types of extremity phantom are 15 to 30% lower than the corresponcung whole-body phantom conversion factors for 252 Cf neutron sources. This difference in extremity and whole-body conversion factors is attributable to the proportionally smaller amount of back-scattering that occurs in the extremity phantoms compared with whole-body phantoms

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. T. Taye

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

Impact of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Upper Basin of the Yellow River Basin of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available To reveal the revolution law of hydrologic extremes in the next 50 years and analyze the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes, the following main works were carried on: firstly, the long duration (15 d, 30 d, and 60 d rainfall extremes according to observed time-series and forecast time-series by dynamical climate model product (BCC-CSM-1.1 were deduced, respectively, on the basis that the quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes was conducted; secondly, the SWAT model was used to deduce design flood with the input of design rainfall for the next 50 years. On this basis, quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on long duration flood volume extremes was conducted. It indicates that (1 the value of long duration rainfall extremes for given probabilities (1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years and (2 long duration flood volume extremes of given probabilities of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years. The conclusions may provide technical supports for basin level planning of flood control and hydropower production.

Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

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Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

2015-04-01

Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

The Importance of Perceptual Experience in the Esthetic Appreciation of the Body

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Mele, Sonia; Cazzato, Valentina; Urgesi, Cosimo

2013-01-01

Several studies suggest that sociocultural models conveying extreme thinness as the widespread ideal of beauty exert an important influence on the perceptual and emotional representation of body image. The psychological mechanisms underlying such environmental influences, however, are unclear. Here, we utilized a perceptual adaptation paradigm to investigate how perceptual experience modulates body esthetic appreciation. We found that the liking judgments of round bodies increased or decreased after brief exposure to round or thin bodies, respectively. No change occurred in the liking judgments of thin bodies. The results suggest that perceptual experience may shape our esthetic appreciation to favor more familiar round body figures. Importantly, individuals with more deficits in interoceptive awareness were less prone to increase their liking ratings of round bodies after exposure, suggesting a specific risk factor for the susceptibility to the influence of the extreme thin vs. round body ideals of beauty portrayed by the media. PMID:24324689

The importance of perceptual experience in the esthetic appreciation of the body.

Science.gov (United States)

Mele, Sonia; Cazzato, Valentina; Urgesi, Cosimo

2013-01-01

Several studies suggest that sociocultural models conveying extreme thinness as the widespread ideal of beauty exert an important influence on the perceptual and emotional representation of body image. The psychological mechanisms underlying such environmental influences, however, are unclear. Here, we utilized a perceptual adaptation paradigm to investigate how perceptual experience modulates body esthetic appreciation. We found that the liking judgments of round bodies increased or decreased after brief exposure to round or thin bodies, respectively. No change occurred in the liking judgments of thin bodies. The results suggest that perceptual experience may shape our esthetic appreciation to favor more familiar round body figures. Importantly, individuals with more deficits in interoceptive awareness were less prone to increase their liking ratings of round bodies after exposure, suggesting a specific risk factor for the susceptibility to the influence of the extreme thin vs. round body ideals of beauty portrayed by the media.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is

Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.

2012-01-01

Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal...... and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those...

Multi-model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part Ⅰ:Precipitation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun

2011-01-01

Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1％ per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50％. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2-3 times larger than that over the other areas.Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the lpctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China,which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

The Future of Coral Reefs Subject to Rapid Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Extreme Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma F. Camp

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Global climate change and localized anthropogenic stressors are driving rapid declines in coral reef health. In vitro experiments have been fundamental in providing insight into how reef organisms will potentially respond to future climates. However, such experiments are inevitably limited in their ability to reproduce the complex interactions that govern reef systems. Studies examining coral communities that already persist under naturally-occurring extreme and marginal physicochemical conditions have therefore become increasingly popular to advance ecosystem scale predictions of future reef form and function, although no single site provides a perfect analog to future reefs. Here we review the current state of knowledge that exists on the distribution of corals in marginal and extreme environments, and geographic sites at the latitudinal extremes of reef growth, as well as a variety of shallow reef systems and reef-neighboring environments (including upwelling and CO2 vent sites. We also conduct a synthesis of the abiotic data that have been collected at these systems, to provide the first collective assessment on the range of extreme conditions under which corals currently persist. We use the review and data synthesis to increase our understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms that facilitate survival and success under sub-optimal physicochemical conditions. This comprehensive assessment can begin to: (i highlight the extent of extreme abiotic scenarios under which corals can persist, (ii explore whether there are commonalities in coral taxa able to persist in such extremes, (iii provide evidence for key mechanisms required to support survival and/or persistence under sub-optimal environmental conditions, and (iv evaluate the potential of current sub-optimal coral environments to act as potential refugia under changing environmental conditions. Such a collective approach is critical to better understand the future survival of

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

The effect of asymmetrical body orientation during simulated forward falls on the distal upper extremity impact response of healthy people.

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Burkhart, Timothy A; Brydges, Evan; Stefanczyk, Jennifer; Andrews, David M

2017-04-01

The occurrence of distal upper extremity injuries resulting from forward falls (approximately 165,000 per year) has remained relatively constant for over 20years. Previous work has provided valuable insight into fall arrest strategies, but only symmetric falls in body postures that do not represent actual fall scenarios closely have been evaluated. This study quantified the effect of asymmetric loading and body postures on distal upper extremity response to simulated forward falls. Twenty participants were suspended from the Propelled Upper Limb fall ARest Impact System (PULARIS) in different torso and leg postures relative to the ground and to the sagittal plane (0°, 30° and 45°). When released from PULARIS (hands 10cm above surface, velocity 1m/s), participants landed on two force platforms, one for each hand. Right forearm impact response was measured with distal (radial styloid) and proximal (olecranon) tri-axial accelerometers and bipolar EMG from seven muscles. Overall, the relative height of the torso and legs had little effect on the forces, or forearm response variables. Muscle activation patterns consistently increased from the start to the peak activation levels after impact for all muscles, followed by a rapid decline after peak. The impact forces and accelerations suggest that the distal upper extremity is loaded more medial-laterally during asymmetric falls than symmetric falls. Altering the direction of the impact force in this way (volar-dorsal to medial-lateral) may help reduce distal extremity injuries caused when landing occurs symmetrically in the sagittal plane as it has been shown that volar-dorsal forces increase the risk of injury. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2013-04-01

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions

The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

Orthostatic changes in the blood volumes of the lower extremities in practically healthy humans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frolov, V K; Koshkin, V M; Karalkin, A V [Vtoroj Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Meditsinskij Inst. (USSR)

1979-07-01

The method and the results of measuring the blood volumes in the lower extremities in the horizontal and vertical position of the body are given. A combination of a single-sensor counter of the whole body and a gamma-chamber with the use of two nondiffuse active radioindicators, erythrocytes labelled with /sup 51/Cr and albumin-sup(99m)Tc in certain sequence, is found to be the most optimal for quantitative evaluation of the regional volumes of the blood. To raise the informativeness of the studies the authors recommend distinguishing ''rapid'' and ''slow'' fractions of the blood volume progressive growth in the crus since the correlation of these fractions reflect the specific features of an individual orthostatic reaction for each examinee.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the

A Touch Sensing Technique Using the Effects of Extremely Low Frequency Fields on the Human Body.

Science.gov (United States)

Elfekey, Hatem; Bastawrous, Hany Ayad; Okamoto, Shogo

2016-12-02

Touch sensing is a fundamental approach in human-to-machine interfaces, and is currently under widespread use. Many current applications use active touch sensing technologies. Passive touch sensing technologies are, however, more adequate to implement low power or energy harvesting touch sensing interfaces. This paper presents a passive touch sensing technique based on the fact that the human body is affected by the surrounding extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields, such as those of AC power lines. These external ELF fields induce electric potentials on the human body-because human tissues exhibit some conductivity at these frequencies-resulting in what is called AC hum. We therefore propose a passive touch sensing system that detects this hum noise when a human touch occurs, thus distinguishing between touch and non-touch events. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is validated by designing and implementing a flexible touch sensing keyboard.

Extremity x-ray

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Seasonal Changes in Soccer Players' Body Composition and Dietary Intake Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Devlin, Brooke L; Kingsley, Michael; Leveritt, Michael D; Belski, Regina

2017-12-01

Devlin, BL, Kingsley, M, Leveritt, MD, and Belski, R. Seasonal changes in soccer players' body composition and dietary intake practices. J Strength Cond Res 31(12): 3319-3326, 2017-The aims of this study were 2-fold: to determine seasonal changes in dietary intake and body composition in elite soccer players and to evaluate the influence of self-determined individual body composition goals on dietary intake and body composition. This longitudinal, observational study assessed body composition (total mass, fat-free soft tissue mass, and fat mass) using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and dietary intake (energy and macronutrients) via multiple-pass 24-hour recalls, at 4 time points over a competitive season in elite soccer players from one professional club in the Australian A-League competition. Self-reported body composition goals were also recorded. Eighteen elite male soccer players took part (25 ± 5 years, 180.5 ± 7.4 cm, 75.6 ± 6.5 kg). Majority (≥67%) reported the goal to maintain weight. Fat-free soft tissue mass increased from the start of preseason (55,278 ± 5,475 g) to the start of competitive season (56,784 ± 5,168 g; p nutrition recommendations. The self-reported body composition goals did not strongly influence dietary intake practices or changes in body composition. This study has demonstrated that body composition changes over the course of a soccer season are subtle in elite soccer players despite relatively low self-reported intake of energy and carbohydrate.

Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

2016-11-01

Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990

Science.gov (United States)

Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2018-01-01

Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.

Motivational processes associated with unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviours.

Science.gov (United States)

Mussap, Alexander J

2007-08-01

The relationship between approach-avoidance motivational processes and unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviours was investigated. Self-reported sensitivity to rewards (SR) and sensitivity to punishments (SP) were measured for a convenience sample of 130 women, aged 18 to 40 years, along with measures of disordered eating symptomatology and exercise dependence. Together, SR and SP significantly predicted variance in drive for thinness (21%), bulimia (17%), and obligatory exercise (7%). These relationships were partly mediated by internalization of the thin ideal, body comparison, and subjective importance of achieving one's 'ideal' body and of avoiding one's 'worst possible' body. Interestingly, body dissatisfaction partly mediated the relationships involving SP but not SR. The results suggest that an underlying sensitivity to punishments, but not rewards, can manifest as a 'fear of fatness'. Both of these motivational traits can increase the salience of self evaluations, and thus indirectly contribute to unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviours.

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: A review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.

2013-01-01

A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of...... drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future. © IWA Publishing 2013....

Climatic changes of extreme precipitation in Denmark from 1872 to 2100

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

of climate change impacts from anthropogenic effects can be established based on projections of daily precipitation. These estimates have then been further downscaled to enable urban pluvial inundation calculations using different statistical downscaling and extreme value analysis techniques. . From...... of precipitation extremes. The objective is to establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods by means of a gradual upgrading of the drainage capacity in combination with a structured risk management approach. Using the regional climate model (RCM) data repositories from PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES, estimates....... These results are important for the extrapolation to future events. Currently efforts are dedicated to constructing similar models based on outputs from climate models, but the models are complicated due to the fact that the correlation structure of high-resolution precipitation in the climate models deviates...

Thermal discomfort with cold extremities in relation to age, gender, and body mass index in a random sample of a Swiss urban population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orgül Selim

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this epidemiological study was to investigate the relationship of thermal discomfort with cold extremities (TDCE to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI in a Swiss urban population. Methods In a random population sample of Basel city, 2,800 subjects aged 20-40 years were asked to complete a questionnaire evaluating the extent of cold extremities. Values of cold extremities were based on questionnaire-derived scores. The correlation of age, gender, and BMI to TDCE was analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results A total of 1,001 women (72.3% response rate and 809 men (60% response rate returned a completed questionnaire. Statistical analyses revealed the following findings: Younger subjects suffered more intensely from cold extremities than the elderly, and women suffered more than men (particularly younger women. Slimmer subjects suffered significantly more often from cold extremities than subjects with higher BMIs. Conclusions Thermal discomfort with cold extremities (a relevant symptom of primary vascular dysregulation occurs at highest intensity in younger, slimmer women and at lowest intensity in elderly, stouter men.

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology.

Science.gov (United States)

Butt, Nathalie; Seabrook, Leonie; Maron, Martine; Law, Bradley S; Dawson, Terence P; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive A

2015-09-01

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed

The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes.

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-10-20

Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.

2016-12-01

Using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust 'hotspot' regions of high probability of peak anomalous - i.e. with respect to the seasonal cycle - water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/mon). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hotspot regions to GRACE results, and that most exceptions are located in the Tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020 it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e. combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE-FO. J. Kusche et al. (2016): Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted online, doi:10.1002/2016GL069538

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmud

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM_0.1, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM_2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH₄NO₃. In general, climate

The need of the change of the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes under extreme conditions – taking reference evapotranspiration as an example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Liu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available What a hydrological model displays is the relationships between the output and input in daily, monthly, yearly and other temporal scales. In the case of climate change or other environment changes, the input of the hydrological model may show a gradual or abrupt change. There have been numerous documented studies to explore the response of output of the hydrological models to the change of the input with scenario simulation. Most of the studies assumed that the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes will remain, which may be true for the gradual change of the input. However, under extreme conditions the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes may be completely changed. Taking an example of the Allen's formula to calculate crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0 as a simple hydrological model, we analyze the alternation of the extreme in ET0 from 1955 to 2012 at the Chongling Experimental Station located in Hebei Province, China. The relationships between ET0 and the meteorological factors for the average values, minimum (maximum values at daily, monthly and annual scales are revealed. It is found the extreme of the output can follow the extreme of the input better when their relationship is more linear. For non-liner relationship, the extreme of the input cannot at all be reflected from the extreme of the output. Relatively, extreme event at daily scale is harder to be shown than that at monthly scale. The result implicates that a routine model may not be able to catch the response to extreme events and it is even more so as we extrapolate models to higher temperature/CO2 conditions in the future. Some possible choices for the improvements are suggested for predicting hydrological extremes.

Air pollution or global warming: Attribution of extreme precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yuan

2015-10-01

The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

2008-01-01

The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

Science.gov (United States)

Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

2014-01-01

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amélie Lescroël

Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

Telemetry pill versus rectal and esophageal temperature during extreme rates of exercise-induced core temperature change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teunissen, L P J; Daanen, H A M; De Haan, A; De Koning, J J

2012-01-01

Core temperature measurement with an ingestible telemetry pill has been scarcely investigated during extreme rates of temperature change, induced by short high-intensity exercise in the heat. Therefore, nine participants performed a protocol of rest, (sub)maximal cycling and recovery at 30 °C. The pill temperature (T pill ) was compared with the rectal temperature (T re ) and esophageal temperature (T es ). T pill corresponded well to T re during the entire trial, but deviated considerably from T es during the exercise and recovery periods. During maximal exercise, the average ΔT pill −T re and ΔT pill −T es were 0.13 ± 0.26 and −0.57 ± 0.53 °C, respectively. The response time from the start of exercise, the rate of change during exercise and the peak temperature were similar for T pill and T re. T es responded 5 min earlier, increased more than twice as fast and its peak value was 0.42 ± 0.46 °C higher than T pill . In conclusion, also during considerable temperature changes at a very high rate, T pill is still a representative of T re . The extent of the deviation in the pattern and peak values between T pill and T es (up to >1 °C) strengthens the assumption that T pill is unsuited to evaluate central blood temperature when body temperatures change rapidly. (paper)

Early changes in socioeconomic status do not predict changes in body mass in the first decade of life.

Science.gov (United States)

Starkey, Leighann; Revenson, Tracey A

2015-04-01

Many studies link childhood socioeconomic status (SES) to body mass index (BMI), but few account for the impact of socioeconomic mobility throughout the lifespan. This study aims to investigate the impact of socioeconomic mobility on changes in BMI in childhood. Analyses tested whether [1] socioeconomic status influences BMI, [2] changes in socioeconomic status impact changes in BMI, and [3] timing of socioeconomic status mobility impacts BMI. Secondary data spanning birth to age 9 were analyzed. SES and BMI were investigated with gender, birth weight, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal nativity as covariates. Autoregressive structural equation modeling and latent growth modeling were used. Socioeconomic status in the first year of life predicted body mass index. Child covariates were consistently associated with body mass index. Rate of change in socioeconomic status did not predict change in body mass index. The findings suggest that early socioeconomic status may most influence body mass in later childhood.

The Effects of Whole Body Vibration Training and Creatine Supplementation on Lower Extremity Performance and Balance in Elderly Males

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Mostafa Rahimi

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of whole body vibration training (WBVT and creatine (Cr supplementation on lower extremity performance and balance in elderly males. Methods & Materials: In this semi-experimental study, twenty two eligible males from the members of an elderly daycare center with more than 60 years of age were enrolled and were divided into three groups randomly, WBVT+Cr(n=7, WBVT+Pgroup (n=7, and control group (n=8. In WBVT+Cr and WBVT+P groups exercises were performed on the whole body vibration device for 10 days with 30-35 Hz intensity and 5 mm amplitude. The WBVT+Cr group consumed 20g/day Crsupplement for the first 5 days followed by 5g/days for the next 5 days of protocol. The WBVT+P group consumed dexterous. The control group neither did any exercise nor consumed any supplement during the protocol. Static balance by standing time on one leg, dynamic balance by TUG test and lower extremity performance by 30-meter walking test, sit and stand test and tandem gait test weremeasured. Paired sample t-test and one way ANOVAwere used for data analysis (α=0.05. Results: Our results showed that dynamic balance, lower body performance in 30- meter walking and tandem gait improved in experimental groups. However, ANOVA did not show any significant increase in static balance (P=0.514, dynamic balance (P=0.153, lower body performance in 30-meter walking test (P=0.339, sit and stand test (P=0.578 and tandem gait (P=0.151. Conclusion: In conclusion, it seems that WBVT plus Cr supplementation improves some of the motor fitness factors in elderly males during a short time.

Body weight changes in elderly psychogeriatric nursing home residents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoops, K.T.B.; Slump, E.; Groot, de C.P.G.M.; Wouters-Wesseling, W.; Brouwer, M.L.; Staveren, van W.A.

2005-01-01

Objective. This study was undertaken to identify predictors of body weight change in nursing home patients with possible to severe dementia. Methods. For 24 weeks, 108 elderly residents of a nursing home were followed. Body weight was measured every 2 weeks. Other anthropometric characteristics,

21st Century Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over the United States: Can Climate Analogues Help or Hinder?

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency and intensity distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, gridded data from a dense network of surface precipitation gauges and a global atmospheric analysis at a coarser scale are combined to develop a diagnostic framework for the large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) that dominate during extreme precipitation. Such diagnostic framework is first evaluated with the late 20th century simulations from an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and is found to produce more consistent (and less uncertain) total and interannaul number of extreme days with the observations than the model-based precipitation over the south-central United States and the Western United States examined in this study. The framework is then applied to the CMIP5 multi-model projections for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to assess the potential future changes in the probability of precipitation extremes over the same study regions. We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.

Overview of the biology of extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

2008-12-01

Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Abiodun, BJ

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices...

Influence of lower body pressure support on the walking patterns of healthy children and adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurz, Max J; Deffeyes, Joan E; Arpin, David J; Karst, Gregory M; Stuberg, Wayne A

2012-11-01

The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the effect of a lower body positive pressure support system on the joint kinematics and activity of the lower extremity antigravity musculature of adults and children during walking. Adults (age = 25 ± 4 years) and children (age = 13 ± 2 years) walked at a preferred speed and a speed that was based on the Froude number, while 0-80% of their body weight was supported. Electrogoniometers were used to monitor knee and ankle joint kinematics. Surface electromyography was used to quantify the magnitude of the vastus lateralis and gastrocnemius muscle activity. There were three key findings: (1) The lower extremity joint angles and activity of the lower extremity antigravity muscles of children did not differ from those of adults. (2) The magnitude of the changes in the lower extremity joint motion and antigravity muscle activity was dependent upon an interaction between body weight support and walking speed. (3) Lower body positive pressure support resulted in reduced activation of the antigravity musculature, and reduced range of motion of the knee and ankle joints.

Changes in Climate Extremes and Catastrophic Events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang

2016-01-01

The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...

The effect of wheelchair propulsion style on changes in time spent in extreme wrist orientations after a bout of fatiguing propulsion.

Science.gov (United States)

Zukowski, Lisa A; Hass, Chris J; Shechtman, Orit; Christou, Evangelos A; Tillman, Mark D

2017-10-01

This study compared how wheelchair propulsion styles affect changes in percentage of time spent in extreme wrist orientations, which have been associated with median nerve injury, after a fatiguing bout of propulsion. Twenty novice, non-disabled adult males learned arcing (ARC) and semicircular (SEMI) propulsion styles and utilised each to perform a wheelchair fatigue protocol. ARC and SEMI did not significantly differ in terms of changes after the fatigue protocol in percentage of time spent in extreme flexion/extension or radial/ulnar deviation at the push phase beginning or end. A pattern was observed, although not significant, of greater increases in percentage of time spent in extreme wrist extension and ulnar deviation during the push phase beginning and ulnar deviation during the push phase end while utilising SEMI relative to ARC. This study evinces that individual differences are greater than observed changes in extreme wrist orientations for both propulsion styles. Practitioner Summary: How wheelchair propulsion styles change with fatigue in terms of extreme wrist orientations was examined. This study evinces that individual differences are greater than observed changes in extreme wrist orientations for both propulsion styles and point towards the need for future research on individual differences utilising propulsion styles.

Scientific Grand Challenges: Challenges in Climate Change Science and the Role of Computing at the Extreme Scale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Johnson, Gary M.; Washington, Warren M.

2009-07-02

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) in partnership with the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) held a workshop on the challenges in climate change science and the role of computing at the extreme scale, November 6-7, 2008, in Bethesda, Maryland. At the workshop, participants identified the scientific challenges facing the field of climate science and outlined the research directions of highest priority that should be pursued to meet these challenges. Representatives from the national and international climate change research community as well as representatives from the high-performance computing community attended the workshop. This group represented a broad mix of expertise. Of the 99 participants, 6 were from international institutions. Before the workshop, each of the four panels prepared a white paper, which provided the starting place for the workshop discussions. These four panels of workshop attendees devoted to their efforts the following themes: Model Development and Integrated Assessment; Algorithms and Computational Environment; Decadal Predictability and Prediction; Data, Visualization, and Computing Productivity. The recommendations of the panels are summarized in the body of this report.

Change of body composition in process of power conditional training

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D.M. Anikieiev

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: to work out recommendations on choosing of exercises for power conditional trainees, considering decrease of fat mass percentage as the purpose. Methods: analysis of changes of body composition of trainees, practicing different kinds of conditional power training. Results: the data about influence of different physical loads on thickness of subcutaneous fat in different parts of body have been generalized. Recommendations on choosing of exercises for power conditional trainees for body composition improving have been presented. It was found that fat loss occurs quicker in upper part of body (subcutaneous and visceral. This is observed with increasing of motor functioning and reducing calories of eating. When training any separate muscular group changes of subcutaneous fat take place not compulsory in body parts, in which the trained group is located. Conclusions: it is purposeful to mainly use basic (multi-joint exercises in power conditional training.

Seasonal change in body fat of the Hyrax Procavia capensis (Pallas, 1766 using a body fat ranking index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.J. Fourie

1985-11-01

Full Text Available Changes in the body fat content of the hyrax Procavia capensis were used as an indicator of physiological condition. Body fat rankings for the different sexes showed seasonal variations related to physiologically stressful periods (rutting, gestation and lactation. The subjective body fat rankings were correlated significantly with total body fat.

Morphological selection in an extreme flow environment: body shape and waterfall-climbing success in the Hawaiian stream fish Sicyopterus stimpsoni.

Science.gov (United States)

Blob, Richard W; Bridges, William C; Ptacek, Margaret B; Maie, Takashi; Cediel, Roberto A; Bertolas, Morgan M; Julius, Matthew L; Schoenfuss, Heiko L

2008-12-01

Flow characteristics are a prominent factor determining body shapes in aquatic organisms, and correlations between body shape and ambient flow regimes have been established for many fish species. In this study, we investigated the potential for a brief period of extreme flow to exert selection on the body shape of juvenile climbing Hawaiian gobiid fishes. Because of an amphidromous life history, juvenile gobies that complete an oceanic larval phase return to freshwater habitats, where they become adults. Returning juveniles often must scale waterfalls (typically with the use of a ventral sucker) in order to reach the habitats they will use as adults, thereby exposing these animals to brief periods of extreme velocities of flow. Hydrodynamic theory predicts that bodies with larger suckers and with lower heights that reduce drag would have improved climbing success and, thus, be well suited to meet the demands of the flows in waterfalls. To test the potential for the flow environment of waterfalls to impose selection that could contribute to differences in body shape between islands, we subjected juvenile Sicyopterus stimpsoni to climbing trials up artificial waterfalls (∼100 body lengths) and measured differences in body shape between successful and unsuccessful climbers. Waterfalls appear to represent a significant selective barrier to these fishes, as nearly 30% failed our climbing test. However, the effects of selection on morphology were not straightforward, as significant differences in shape between successful and unsuccessful climbers did not always match hydrodynamic predictions. In both selection experiments and in adult fish collected from habitats with different prevailing conditions of flow (the islands of Hawai'i versus Kaua'i), lower head heights were associated with exposure to high-flow regimes, as predicted by hydrodynamic theory. Thus, a premium appears to be placed on the reduction of drag via head morphology throughout the ontogeny of this

The environmental plasticity of diverse body color caused by extremely long photoperiods and high temperature in Saccharosydne procerus (Homoptera: Delphacidae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haichen Yin

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Melanization reflects not only body color variation but also environmental plasticity. It is a strategy that helps insects adapt to environmental change. Different color morphs may have distinct life history traits, e.g., development time, growth rate, and body weight. The green slender planthopper Saccharosydne procerus (Matsumura is the main pest of water bamboo (Zizania latifolia. This insect has two color morphs. The present study explored the influence of photoperiod and its interaction with temperature in nymph stage on adult melanism. Additionally, the longevity, fecundity, mating rate, and hatching rate of S. procerus were examined to determine whether the fitness of the insect was influenced by melanism under different temperature and photoperiod. The results showed that a greater number of melanic morphs occurred if the photoperiod was extremely long. A two-factor ANOVA showed that temperature and photoperiod both have a significant influence on melanism. The percentages of variation explained by these factors were 45.53% and 48.71%, respectively. Moreover, melanic morphs had greater advantages than non-melanic morphs under an environmental regime of high temperatures and a long photoperiod, whereas non-melanic morphs were better adapted to cold temperatures and a short photoperiod. These results cannot be explained by the thermal melanism hypothesis. Thus, it may be unavailable to seek to explain melanism in terms of only one hypothesis.

Further outlooks: extremely uncomfortable; Die weiteren Aussichten: extrem ungemuetlich

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Resenhoeft, T.

2006-07-01

Climate is changing extremely in the last decades. Scientists dealing with extreme weather, should not only stare at computer simulations. They have also to turn towards psyche, seriously personal experiences, knowing statistics, relativise supposed sensational reports and last not least collecting more data. (GL)

Body temperature change characteristics of Lake Michigan fishes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spigarelli, S.A.; Thommes, M.M.; Beitinger, T.L.

1974-01-01

Body temperature change rate experiments were conducted on alewife, brown trout, rainbow trout, brook trout, and carp collected from the discharge flumes and inshore areas near the Point Beach Nuclear Plant. Test fish were exposed to immediate water temperature changes of up to 10.6 0 C by transfer between ambient and discharge water holding tanks. Results showed that the temperature change rate was related to fish size, species, and direction of change, suggesting that rapid temperature changes would have a more pronounced effect on smaller fish

Detecting and taking into account possible impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renard, B.

2008-01-01

Climate change is widely considered as a reality by scientists. Nevertheless, impacts on hydrological extremes are more difficult to observe and to forecast. The aim of this thesis is to answer the following questions: How to detect changes in hydro-climatic series? What are the observed changes for extreme discharges in France? How to take into account possible changes in frequency analysis? These objectives refer to both local and regional scales. This paper describes the developments related to the third question. In a first step, the concept of return period is revisited in a non-stationary context. Frequency analysis methods are then updated in order to account for evolutions in time. This is achieved by modelling trends affecting the distribution parameters. Parameter estimation uses the Bayesian formalism, which is a convenient tool for quantifying the uncertainty related to the stationarity hypothesis. This approach can be generalized at the regional scale, by means of non-stationary regional models. Such models are more general than the model underlying the index flood method. However, results of such a regional analysis are affected by the spatial dependence existing between studied sites. Impacts of this dependence on quantile estimates are highlighted, and a first approach is proposed in order to explicitly model spatial dependence. (author)

What is the most effective posture to conduct vibration from the lower to the upper extremities during whole-body vibration exercise?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tsukahara Y

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Yuka Tsukahara, Jun Iwamoto, Kosui Iwashita, Takuma Shinjo, Koichiro Azuma, Hideo MatsumotoInstitute for Integrated Sports Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan Background: Whole-body vibration (WBV exercise is widely used for training and rehabilitation. However, the optimal posture for training both the upper and lower extremities simultaneously remains to be established. Objectives: The objective of this study was to search for an effective posture to conduct vibration from the lower to the upper extremities while performing WBV exercises without any adverse effects. Methods: Twelve healthy volunteers (age: 22–34 years were enrolled in the study. To measure the magnitude of vibration, four accelerometers were attached to the upper arm, back, thigh, and calf of each subject. Vibrations were produced using a WBV platform (Galileo 900 with an amplitude of 4 mm at two frequencies, 15 and 30 Hz. The following three postures were examined: posture A, standing posture with the knees flexed at 30°; posture B, crouching position with no direct contact between the knees and elbows; and posture C, crouching position with direct contact between the knees and elbows. The ratio of the magnitude of vibration at the thigh, back, and upper arm relative to that at the calf was used as an index of vibration conduction. Results: Posture B was associated with a greater magnitude of vibration to the calf than posture A at 15 Hz, and postures B and C were associated with greater magnitudes of vibration than posture A at 30 Hz. Posture C was associated with a vibration conduction to the upper arm that was 4.62 times and 8.26 times greater than that for posture A at 15 and 30 Hz, respectively. Conclusion: This study revealed that a crouching position on a WBV platform with direct contact between the knees and elbows was effective for conducting vibration from the lower to the upper extremities. Keywords: whole-body vibration exercise, upper

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

Science.gov (United States)

Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

2014-01-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace I. Davies

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Dynamics of body protein deposition and changes in body composition after sudden changes in amino acid intake: I. Barrows.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Ramírez, H R; Jeaurond, E A; de Lange, C F M

2008-09-01

A study was conducted to evaluate the extent and dynamics of whole body protein deposition and changes in chemical and physical body composition after a period of AA intake restriction in growing barrows with medium lean tissue growth potentials. Forty Yorkshire barrows (initial BW 14.4 +/- 1.6 kg) were scale-fed at 75% of estimated voluntary daily DE intake up to 35 kg of BW and assigned to 1 of 2 diets: AA adequate (AA+; 20% above requirements; NRC, 1998) and AA deficient (AA-; 40% below requirements; restriction phase). Thereafter (re-alimentation phase), pigs from both dietary AA levels were scale-fed or fed ad libitum diets that were not limiting in AA. Body weight gain and body composition, based on serial slaughter, were monitored during the 34-d re-alimentation phase. During the restriction phase AA intake restriction reduced BW gains (556 vs. 410 g/d; P alimentation phase (P > 0.10). Throughout the re-alimentation phase, there were no interactive effects of time, feeding level, and previous AA intake level on growth performance, body protein, and body lipid content (P > 0.10). During the re-alimentation phase, body protein deposition, derived from the linear regression analysis of body protein content vs. time, was not affected by feeding level and previous AA intake level (P > 0.10; 156 g/d for AA- vs. 157 g/d for AA+). Based on BW and body protein content, it can be concluded that no compensatory body protein deposition occurred in barrows, with medium lean tissue growth potential after AA intake restriction between 15 and 35 kg of BW. It is suggested that the upper limit to body protein deposition was the main factor that limited the extent of compensatory body protein deposition in this population of pigs. The concept of an upper limit to body protein deposition may be used to explain why compensatory growth is observed in some studies and not in others.

Evaluation of modeled changes in extreme precipitation in Europe and the Rhine basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Hazeleger, W.

2013-01-01

In this study, we investigate the change in multi-day precipitation extremes in late winter in Europe using observations and climate models. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models can accurately reproduce observed trends and, if not, to find the causes of the

Sexual body ideal among Zulu women: Continuity and change ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This gender-based article interrogates changes in how Zulu women in particular view their sexuality in terms of their body weight, size and shape, against the backdrop of an individual's image and identity. These concepts are juxtaposed against the western 'thin ideal' of a sexually alluring female body. The article is based ...

changes in body composition and other anthropometric measures of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study aimed to investigate the changes in body composition and other anthropometric .... showing a good fit between the values obtained from the equation ..... ideally at 6-monthly intervals, in order to provide useful information to ... training on quality of life in HAART-treated HIV-positive Rwandan subjects with body fat ...

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Hu

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

[Overweight and obesity in young adults: relevance of job-related changes of exercise on fat, lean body and body mass in students].

Science.gov (United States)

Kemmler, Wolfgang; Kohl, Matthias; Bebenek, Michael; von Stengel, Simon

2015-03-01

Early adulthood is related to changes in lifestyle that negatively affect body weight and health. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of exercise changes on the development of weight and body composition in college students.Sixty-one randomly selected dental (ZMS) and 53 sport students (SLS) were accompanied over 5 years. Body mass, fat and lean body mass (LBM) were determined via DXA-technique. Exercise and physical activity were assessed by questionnaires and interviews.All exercise indices significantly increased in the SLS and significantly decreased in the ZMS. Physical activity slightly increased in both groups. Both cohorts comparably gained body mass, however, the increase in the SLS group can be attributed to LBM-changes with minor changes of fat-mass (2.4 % ± 3.3 % vs. 0.1 ± 1.0 %) whereas ZMS gained fat and LBM in a proportion of 2:1.Maintenance/increase of exercise compensate the negative effects of lifestyle changes on body composition during young adulthood.

Changes in fitness are associated with changes in body composition and bone health in children after cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubnov-Raz, Gal; Azar, Meital; Reuveny, Ronen; Katz, Uriel; Weintraub, Michael; Constantini, Naama W

2015-10-01

This study examined the effects of physical activity on the fitness, body composition and mental health of children after cancer or bone marrow transplantation. We focused on 22 children aged from seven to 14 years who had received chemotherapy and/or bone marrow transplantation in our medical centre. Ten children took part in a six-month exercise programme, and 12 children who did not exercise formed the control group. At baseline and at the end of the trial, we measured aerobic fitness, body composition, bone density and assessed the child's mood and quality of life. We pooled all participants together post hoc to compare changes in fitness with the various study outcomes. We found no differences between groups in changes in fitness, body composition or mental health indices. Significant correlations were found between changes in aerobic fitness and changes in lean body mass (r = 0.74, p = 0.002), bone mineral content (r = 0.57, p = 0.026) and femoral neck bone mineral density (r = 0.59, p = 0.027) in all participants. Group-based exercise training did not improve aerobic fitness in children after cancer or bone marrow transplantation. However, changes in fitness throughout the study period were associated with changes in body composition and bone health in all participants. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nasal reaction to changes in whole body temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundqvist, G R; Pedersen, O F; Hilberg, O; Nielsen, B

1993-11-01

The changes in nasal patency following a 1.5 degrees C decrease or increase in whole body temperature were measured in 8 healthy young males, during and after 30 min of immersion in a 15 degrees C cold or a 40 degrees C warm bath, breathing air at the same temperature, in a cross-over experimental design. The nasal reactions were traced by consecutive measurements of changes in nasal cavity volumes by acoustic rhinometry. Swelling of the mucosa during cooling and an almost maximal shrinkage of the mucosa during heating were indicated by respectively a decrease and an increase in nasal cavity volumes. The reactions were determined predominantly by the whole body thermal balance, but were also influenced by the temperature of the inhaled air, either enhanced, reduced or temporarily reversed. The greatest change occurred in the nasal cavity, left or right, which differed most from the final state at the beginning of exposure due to the actual state of nasal cycle.

Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. T. Nastos

2008-04-01

Full Text Available The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001 are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (% exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.

Bulimia nervosa: mood changes do have an impact on body width estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kulbartz-Klatt, Y J; Florin, I; Pook, M

1999-09-01

This study was designed to investigate the impact of mood changes on body width estimation in women with bulimia nervosa. A pre-post controlled experimental design was chosen. Mood changes were induced in 40 women with bulimia nervosa, 20 women with panic disorder and 40 women with no diagnosis of a psychological disorder. A combination of autobiographical memory method and music induction method was used to induce positive and negative mood, respectively. Before and after mood induction a video distorting technique was used for body width estimation. Induction of negative mood increased and induction of positive mood decreased the body width estimations of women with bulimia. Patients with panic disorder and 'healthy' controls did not show these changes after mood induction. The findings suggest that change in mood state rather than the more habitual mood quality are relevant for bulimic women's body perception.

Assessing the Implications of Changing Extreme Value Distributions of Weather on Carbon and Water Cycling in Grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2011-12-01

As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.

Evolution caused by extreme events.

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Huey, Raymond B; Johnson, Marc T J; Knoll, Andrew H; Schmitt, Johanna

2017-06-19

Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

2015-11-15

Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

OpenAIRE

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

The impact of CO2 fertilization and historical land use/land cover change on regional climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena

2017-04-01

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.

The Relationship of Maternal Prepregnancy Body Mass Index and Pregnancy Weight Gain to Neurocognitive Function at Age 10 Years among Children Born Extremely Preterm

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jensen, Elizabeth T; van der Burg, Jelske W; O'Shea, Thomas M; Joseph, Robert M; Allred, Elizabeth N; Heeren, Tim; Leviton, Alan; Kuban, Karl C K

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between maternal prepregnancy body mass index and adequacy of pregnancy weight gain in relation to neurocognitive function in school-aged children born extremely preterm. STUDY DESIGN: Study participants were 535 ten-year-old children enrolled previously in the

Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

2015-01-01

change method for extreme events, a weather generator combined with a disaggregation method and a climate analogue method. All three methods rely on different assumptions and use different outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). The results of the three methods point towards an increase...... in extreme precipitation but the magnitude of the change varies depending on the RCM used and the spatial location. In general, a similar mean change is obtained for the three methods. This adds confidence in the results as each method uses different information from the RCMs. The results of this study...

[Changes in body weight of the university students at university].

Science.gov (United States)

Soto Ruiz, María Nelia; Aguinaga Ontonso, Inés; Canga Armayor, Navidad; Guillén-Grima, Francisco; Hermoso de Mendoza, Juana; Serrano Monzo, Inmaculada; Marín Fernández, Blanca

2015-06-01

One of the strategies for the prevention of the obesity is the identification of critical periods of gain weight. Some studies confirm gain weight during the university period. The purpose of the present study was to determine the changes in the body weight of the university students in Navarre. Prospective cohort study. Public University of Navarre and the University of Navarre, in Pamplona. Study examined weight change among 452 students attending at university in Pamplona, during first and third course. Four hundred and fifty two students completed the questionnaire. Weight and height were measures and body mass index was calculated. The mean body weight increased 0,600 kg, 1,8 kg for males and no change in body weight was observed in female. 44,7 % of students gained weight (60,8 % of men and 36,8 % of women), and the gain weight was of 3,4 kg. University years are a critical factor for the gain weight, particularly males. Consideration of this, is necessary the development of effective weight gain prevention strategies during the university. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Decreases in beetle body size linked to climate change and warming temperatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Michelle; Kaur, Katrina M; Soleimani Pari, Sina; Sarai, Karnjit; Chan, Denessa; Yao, Christine H; Porto, Paula; Toor, Anmol; Toor, Harpawantaj S; Fograscher, Katrina

2018-05-01

Body size is a fundamental ecological trait and is correlated with population dynamics, community structure and function, and ecosystem fluxes. Laboratory data from broad taxonomic groups suggest that a widespread response to a warming world may be an overall decrease in organism body size. However, given the myriad of biotic and abiotic factors that can also influence organism body size in the wild, it is unclear whether results from these laboratory assays hold in nature. Here we use datasets spanning 30 to 100 years to examine whether the body size of wild-caught beetles has changed over time, whether body size changes are correlated with increased temperatures, and we frame these results using predictions derived from a quantitative review of laboratory responses of 22 beetle species to temperature. We found that 95% of laboratory-reared beetles decreased in size with increased rearing temperature, with larger-bodied species shrinking disproportionately more than smaller-bodied beetles. In addition, the museum datasets revealed that larger-bodied beetle species have decreased in size over time, that mean beetle body size explains much of the interspecific variation in beetle responses to temperature, and that long-term beetle size changes are explained by increases in autumn temperature and decreases in spring temperature in this region. Our data demonstrate that the relationship between body size and temperature of wild-caught beetles matches relatively well with results from laboratory studies, and that variation in this relationship is largely explained by interspecific variation in mean beetle body size. This long-term beetle dataset is one of the most comprehensive arthropod body size datasets compiled to date, it improves predictions regarding the shrinking of organisms with global climate change, and together with the meta-analysis data, call for new hypotheses to explain why larger-bodied organisms may be more sensitive to temperature. © 2018 The

Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dharmaveer Singh

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

Public health and climate change. The example of extreme weather events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.

2013-01-01

Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)

[Attitude change toward body image: the role of elaboration on attitude strength].

Science.gov (United States)

Gasco, Margarita; Briñol, Pablo; Horcajo, Javier

2010-02-01

Attitude change toward body image: The role of elaboration on attitude strength. Attitudes toward body image have been shown to play a central role in the understanding and treating of eating disorders. In the present research, participants' attitudes toward their body image were changed through a persuasive procedure involving high mental elaboration (self-persuasion) or through a less engaging procedure involving less active participation (passive exposure). As expected, participants in these two groups showed more favourable attitudes toward their bodies than those in the control group. Despite that both treatments were equally efficient in changing attitudes, the strength associated with those attitudes was significantly different depending on the amount of thinking involved in the process of change. Specifically, attitudes were stronger in the high rather than low thinking group of treatment. This finding is important because the strength of the attitude may determine the long-term consequences of an intervention.

Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Changes of Extreme Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (YRB) during 1960 to 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Y.; Wu, S.; Wen, J.; Xu, M.; Tan, J.

2013-12-01

The Yangtze River is the longest river in China, with its river basin covering an area of 1.8 million sq km, encompassing about one fifth of China's total territory, one third of the nation's total population, and one quarter of its total arable land. Flooding resulted from extreme precipitation has always been a major problem for the middle and lower part of the YRB, particularly during the monsoon season of eastern China from May to August. Meanwhile, the relatively dense population and large cities in this region make the floods more deadly and costly. In this study we aim to establish the temporal and spatial patterns of changes in extreme precipitation in the middle and lower YRB using daily precipitation data from 71 stations in the area from 1960 to 2012. It is hoped that this study will provide useful information for better flood control. In this study, we defined and examined three major indices. Extreme precipitation frequency is defined as number of days per year with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for the base period of 1961 - 1990. Extreme precipitation amount is defined as the total amount of precipitation from these days. Extreme precipitation intensity is defined as the amount divided by frequency. We used non-parametric Thiel-Sen method to estimate the rate of change at each station, and Mann-Kendall test for the significance of the trend. Using Thiessen polygons, we also calculated the area-weighted mean of station trends to get the total trend for the entire study area. Abrupt changes in the time series was detected by using Mann-Kendall test and the Moving-t test methods. Our results show that there is an increasing trend of for the frequency, amount, and intensity of extreme precipitation in the study region. Of the three indicators, the extreme precipitation amount increased most, and its abrupt change point happened in1987. Between the period before and after 1987, the mean annual amount, intensity and frequency of extreme

The Effects of Forest Area Changes on Extreme Temperature Indexes between the 1900s and 2010s in Heilongjiang Province, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lijuan Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover changes (LUCC are thought to be amongst the most important impacts exerted by humans on climate. However, relatively little research has been carried out so far on the effects of LUCC on extreme climate change other than on regional temperatures and precipitation. In this paper, we apply a regional weather research and forecasting (WRF climate model using LUCC data from Heilongjiang Province, that was collected between the 1900s and 2010s, to explore how changes in forest cover influence extreme temperature indexes. Our selection of extreme high, low, and daily temperature indexes for analysis in this study enables the calculation of a five-year numerical integration trail with changing forest space. Results indicate that the total forested area of Heilongjiang Province decreased by 28% between the 1900s and 2010s. This decrease is most marked in the western, southwestern, and northeastern parts of the province. Our results also reveal a remarkable correlation between change in forested area and extreme high and low temperature indexes. Further analysis enabled us to determine that the key factor explaining increases in extreme high temperature indexes (i.e., calculated using the number of warm days, warm nights, as well as tropical nights, and summer days is decreasing forest area; data also showed that this factor caused a decrease in extreme low temperature indexes (i.e., calculated using the number of cold days and cold nights, as well as frost days, and ice days and an increase in the maximum value of daily minimum temperature. Spatial data demonstrated that there is a significant correlation between forest-to-farmland conversion and extreme temperature indexes throughout most of our study period. Spatial data demonstrated that there is a significant correlation between forest-to-farmland conversion and extreme temperature indexes throughout most of our study period. Positive correlations are also present between

Short-term changes in affective, behavioral, and cognitive components of body image after bariatric surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Gail A; Hudson, Danae L; Whisenhunt, Brooke L; Stone, Megan; Heinberg, Leslie J; Crowther, Janis H

2018-04-01

Many bariatric surgery candidates report body image concerns before surgery. Research has reported post-surgical improvements in body satisfaction, which may be associated with weight loss. However, research has failed to comprehensively examine changes in affective, behavioral, and cognitive body image. This research examined (1) short-term changes in affective, behavioral, and cognitive components of body image from pre-surgery to 1- and 6-months after bariatric surgery, and (2) the association between percent weight loss and these changes. Participants were recruited from a private hospital in the midwestern United States. Eighty-eight females (original N = 123; lost to follow-up: n = 15 at 1-month and n = 20 at 6-months post-surgery) completed a questionnaire battery, including the Body Attitudes Questionnaire, Body Checking Questionnaire, Body Image Avoidance Questionnaire, and Body Shape Questionnaire, and weights were obtained from patients' medical records before and at 1- and 6-months post-surgery. Results indicated significant decreases in body dissatisfaction, feelings of fatness, and body image avoidance at 1- and 6-months after bariatric surgery, with the greatest magnitude of change occurring for body image avoidance. Change in feelings of fatness was significantly correlated with percent weight loss at 6-months, but not 1-month, post-surgery. These findings highlight the importance of examining short-term changes in body image from a multidimensional perspective in the effort to improve postsurgical outcomes. Unique contributions include the findings regarding the behavioral component of body image, as body image avoidance emerges as a particularly salient concern that changes over time among bariatric surgery candidates. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Body weight and beauty: the changing face of the ideal female body weight.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonafini, B A; Pozzilli, P

2011-01-01

By observing the art of different eras, as well as the more recent existence of the media, it is obvious that there have been dramatic changes in what is considered a beautiful body. The ideal of female beauty has shifted from a symbol of fertility to one of mathematically calculated proportions. It has taken the form of an image responding to men's sexual desires. Nowadays there seems to be a tendency towards the destruction of the feminine, as androgynous fashion and appearance dominate our culture. The metamorphosis of the ideal woman follows the shifting role of women in society from mother and mistress to a career-orientated individual. Her depiction by artists across the centuries reveals this change in role and appearance that should be interpreted within the social and historical context of each era with its own theories of what constituted the ideal female body weight. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.

Total and regional body-composition changes in early postmenopausal women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Q; Hassager, C; Ravn, Pernille

1994-01-01

Total and regional body composition were measured in 373 early postmenopausal women aged 49-60 y by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry to evaluate whether the changes in body composition in the early postmenopausal years are related to menopause itself or merely to age. Both fat mass and fat...

Changes of the skull in general body diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koval', G.Yu.; Perepust, L.A.; Novikova, Eh.Z.

1984-01-01

Changes of the skull in the following body disease are considered. Diseases: endocrine diseases, fibrous osteodystrophy, reticulohistocytoses and noninfectious granulomas, the blood system diseases, disturbance of vitamin balance. Skull roentgenograms in some above-mentioned diseases are presented and analysed

Detecting meaningful body composition changes in athletes using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colyer, Steffi L; Roberts, Simon P; Thompson, Dylan; Stokes, Keith A; Bilzon, James L J; Salo, Aki I T; Robinson, Jonathan B

2016-01-01

Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) imaging is considered to provide a valid and reliable estimation of body composition when stringent scanning protocols are adopted. However, applied practitioners are not always able to achieve this level of control and the subsequent impact on measurement precision is not always taken into account when evaluating longitudinal body composition changes. The primary aim of this study was to establish the reliability of DXA in an applied elite sport setting to investigate whether real body composition changes can be detected. Additionally, the performance implications of these changes during the training year were investigated. Forty-eight well-trained athletes (from four diverse sports) underwent two DXA scans using a ‘real-world’ approach (with limited pre-scan controls), typically within 48 h, to quantify typical error of measurement (TEM). Twenty-five athletes underwent further scans, before and after specific training and competition blocks. ‘True’ body composition changes were evaluated using 2  ×  TEM thresholds. Twelve bob skeleton athletes also performed countermovement jump and leg press tests at each time point. Many ‘true’ body composition changes were detected and coincided with the primary training emphases (e.g. lean mass gains during hypertrophy-based training). Clear relationships (r  ±  90% CI) were observed between performance changes (countermovement jump and leg press) and changes in lean mass (0.53  ±  0.26 and 0.35  ±  0.28, respectively) and fat mass (−0.44  ±  0.27 and  −0.37  ±  0.28, respectively). DXA was able to detect real body composition changes without the use of stringent scanning controls. Associations between changes in body composition and performance demonstrated the potential influence of these changes on strength and power indices. (paper)

Predictors of Change in Body Image in Female Participants of an Outdoor Education Program

Science.gov (United States)

Hovey, Kate; Foland, Jody; Foley, John T.; Kniffin, Mike; Bailey, JoEllen

2016-01-01

Body image is an ever-changing phenomenon that has a profound effect on women's quality of life. Research related to body image is expansive, but few researchers have focused on how outdoor education may influence body image. This study examines predictors of change in body image of female participants of an outdoor education program. Twenty-eight…

Communicating and managing change during extreme weather events: promising practices for responding to urgent and emergent climate threats.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinker, Tim L

2013-01-01

Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.

Illusory changes in body size modulate body satisfaction in a way that is related to non-clinical eating disorder psychopathology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Preston

Full Text Available Historically, body size overestimation has been linked to abnormal levels of body dissatisfaction found in eating disorders. However, recently this relationship has been called into question. Indeed, despite a link between how we perceive and how we feel about our body seeming intuitive, until now lack of an experimental method to manipulate body size has meant that a causal link, even in healthy participants, has remained elusive. Recent developments in body perception research demonstrate that the perceptual experience of the body can be readily manipulated using multisensory illusions. The current study exploits such illusions to modulate perceived body size in an attempt to influence body satisfaction. Participants were presented with stereoscopic video images of slimmer and wider mannequin bodies viewed through head-mounted displays from first person perspective. Illusory ownership was induced by synchronously stroking the seen mannequin body with the unseen real body. Pre and post-illusion affective and perceptual measures captured changes in perceived body size and body satisfaction. Illusory ownership of a slimmer body resulted in participants perceiving their actual body as slimmer and giving higher ratings of body satisfaction demonstrating a direct link between perceptual and affective body representations. Change in body satisfaction following illusory ownership of a wider body, however, was related to degree of (non-clinical eating disorder psychopathology, which can be linked to fluctuating body representations found in clinical samples. The results suggest that body perception is linked to body satisfaction and may be of importance for eating disorder symptomology.

Illusory Changes in Body Size Modulate Body Satisfaction in a Way That Is Related to Non-Clinical Eating Disorder Psychopathology

Science.gov (United States)

Preston, Catherine; Ehrsson, H. Henrik

2014-01-01

Historically, body size overestimation has been linked to abnormal levels of body dissatisfaction found in eating disorders. However, recently this relationship has been called into question. Indeed, despite a link between how we perceive and how we feel about our body seeming intuitive, until now lack of an experimental method to manipulate body size has meant that a causal link, even in healthy participants, has remained elusive. Recent developments in body perception research demonstrate that the perceptual experience of the body can be readily manipulated using multisensory illusions. The current study exploits such illusions to modulate perceived body size in an attempt to influence body satisfaction. Participants were presented with stereoscopic video images of slimmer and wider mannequin bodies viewed through head-mounted displays from first person perspective. Illusory ownership was induced by synchronously stroking the seen mannequin body with the unseen real body. Pre and post-illusion affective and perceptual measures captured changes in perceived body size and body satisfaction. Illusory ownership of a slimmer body resulted in participants perceiving their actual body as slimmer and giving higher ratings of body satisfaction demonstrating a direct link between perceptual and affective body representations. Change in body satisfaction following illusory ownership of a wider body, however, was related to degree of (non-clinical) eating disorder psychopathology, which can be linked to fluctuating body representations found in clinical samples. The results suggest that body perception is linked to body satisfaction and may be of importance for eating disorder symptomology. PMID:24465698

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts

Longitudinal Body Composition Changes in NCAA Division I College Football Players

Science.gov (United States)

Trexler, Eric T.; Smith-Ryan, Abbie E.; Mann, J. Bryan; Ivey, Pat A.; Hirsch, Katie R.; Mock, Meredith G.

2016-01-01

Many athletes seek to optimize body composition to fit the physical demands of their sport. American football requires a unique combination of size, speed, and power. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate longitudinal changes in body composition in Division I collegiate football players. For 57 players (Mean ± SD; Age=19.5 ± 0.9 yrs; Height=186.9 ± 5.7 cm; Weight=107.7 ± 19.1 kg), body composition was assessed via dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry in the off-season (March-Pre), end of off-season (May), mid-July (Pre-Season), and the following March (March-Post). Outcome variables included weight, body fat percentage (BF%), fat mass (FM), lean mass (LM), android (AND) and gynoid (GYN) fat, bone mineral content (BMC), and bone density (BMD). For a subset of athletes (n=13 out of 57), changes over a 4-year playing career were evaluated with measurements taken every March. Throughout a single year, favorable changes were observed for BF% (Δ=−1.3 ± 2.5%), LM (Δ=2.8 ± 2.8 kg), GYN (Δ=−1.5 ± 3.0%), BMC (Δ=0.06 ± 0.14 kg), and BMD (Δ=0.015 ± 0.027g·cm−2; all pfootball players at high levels of competition can achieve favorable changes in body composition, even late in the career, which may confer benefits for performance and injury prevention. PMID:28005635

Weight and body composition change over a six-week holiday period.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, D R; Larson, J N; Wengreen, H

2012-03-01

Change in weight and body composition was assessed over a six-week holiday period. Baseline testing occurred the Monday or Tuesday prior to Thanksgiving Day (November 24 or 25, 2008), and the post-holiday assessment was the Monday or Tuesday after New Year's Day (January 5 or 6, 2009). Thirteen men and 21 women ranging in age from 23-61 years completed the study. The majority of participants (24 of 34) perceived that they had gained weight, and four did gain ≥2 kg. However, despite some changes to dietary and exercise habits, on average there was no difference between pre-holiday weight (74.0±17.8 kg) and post-holiday weight (73.9±18.1 kg), nor between pre-holiday body fat percentage (25.4±9.0%) and post-holiday body fat percentage (25.4±8.9%). Despite a perception of substantial weight gain, body weight and body fat remained unchanged over a six-week holiday period.

Body composition changes in females treated for breast cancer: a review of the evidence

OpenAIRE

Sheean, Patricia M.; Hoskins, Kent; Stolley, Melinda

2012-01-01

Body composition changes cannot be precisely captured using body weight or body mass index measures. Therefore, the primary purpose of this review was to characterize the patterns of body composition change in females treated for breast cancer including only studies that utilize imaging technologies to quantify adipose tissue and lean body mass (LBM). We reviewed PubMed for studies published between 1971–2012 involving females diagnosed with breast cancer where computed axial tomography (CAT)...

Reprogramming the body weight set point by a reciprocal interaction of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc gene expression reverts extreme obesity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kavaljit H. Chhabra

2016-10-01

Conclusions: Pomc reactivation in previously obese, calorie-restricted ArcPomc−/− mice normalized energy homeostasis, suggesting that their body weight set point was restored to control levels. In contrast, massively obese and hyperleptinemic ArcPomc−/− mice or those weight-matched and treated with PASylated leptin to maintain extreme hyperleptinemia prior to Pomc reactivation converged to an intermediate set point relative to lean control and obese ArcPomc−/− mice. We conclude that restoration of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc expression is necessary for obese ArcPomc−/− mice to achieve and sustain normal metabolic homeostasis; whereas deficits in either parameter set a maladaptive allostatic balance that defends increased adiposity and body weight.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingquan Lü

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The Three Gorges Dam (TGD is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in the world. Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation offers valuable information for adaptation and mitigation strategies and reservoir management schemes. This study examined variations in extreme precipitation over the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA in China to investigate the potential role of climate warming and Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR. The trends in extreme precipitation over the TGRA were investigated using the iterative-based Mann–Kendall (MK test and Sen’s slope estimator, based on weather station daily data series and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data series. The mean and density distribution of extreme precipitation indices between pre-dam and post-dam, pre-1985 and post-1985, and near and distant reservoir area were assessed by the Mann–Whitney test and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The ratio of extreme precipitation to non-extreme precipitation became larger. The precipitation was characterized by increases in heavy precipitation as well as decreases in light and moderate rain. Comparing extreme precipitation indices between pre-1985 (cooling and post-1985 (warming indicated extreme precipitation has changed to become heavier. Under climate warming, the precipitation amount corresponding to more than the 95th percentile increased at the rate of 6.48%/°C. Results from comparing extreme precipitation for the pre- and post-dam, near reservoir area (NRA and away from the reservoir area (ARA imply an insignificant role of the TGR on rainfall extremes over the TGRA. Moreover, the impoundment of TGR did not exert detectable impacts on the surface relative humidity (RH and water vapor pressure (WP.

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2018-03-01

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

Predictors of Changes in Body Image Concerns of Chinese Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hong; Jackson, Todd

2009-01-01

This nine-month prospective study tested the extent to which risk factors implicated in recent accounts of body dissatisfaction predicted changes in body image concerns of adolescent boys and girls in China. A sample of 593 Chinese adolescents (217 boys, 376 girls) completed measures of weight esteem, appearance esteem and physical stature concern…

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Association of changes in fitness and body composition with cancer mortality in men.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Peizhen; Sui, Xuemei; Hand, Gregory A; Hébert, James R; Blair, Steven N

2014-07-01

Both baseline cardiorespiratory fitness and adiposity predict the risk of cancer mortality. However, the effects of changes in these two factors over time have not been evaluated thoroughly. The aim of this study was to examine the independent and joint associations of changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition on cancer mortality. The cohort consisted of 13,930 men (initially cancer-free) with two or more medical examinations from 1974 to 2002. Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed by a maximal treadmill exercise test, and body composition was expressed by body mass index (BMI) and percent body fat. Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition between the baseline and the last examination were classified into loss, stable, and gain groups. There were 386 deaths from cancer during an average of 12.5 yr of follow-up. After adjusting for possible confounders and BMI, change hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of cancer mortality were 0.74 (0.57-0.96) for stable fitness and 0.74 (0.56-0.98) for fitness gain. Inverse dose-response relationships were observed between changes in maximal METs and cancer mortality (P for linear trend = 0.05). Neither BMI change nor percent body fat change was associated with cancer mortality after adjusting for possible confounders and maximal METs change. In the joint analyses, men who became less fit had a higher risk of cancer mortality (P for linear trend = 0.03) compared with those who became more fit, regardless of BMI change levels. Being unfit or losing cardiorespiratory fitness over time was found to predict cancer mortality in men. Improving or maintaining adequate levels of cardiorespiratory fitness appears to be important for decreasing cancer mortality in men.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Jaedicke

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing

Changes in body weight, composition, and shape: a 4-year study of college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Gropper, Sareen S; Simmons, Karla P; Connell, Lenda Jo; Ulrich, Pamela V

2012-12-01

The objectives of this study were to examine changes in body weight, body mass index (BMI), body composition, and shape in a group of male and female students over the 4-year college period. Anthropometric assessments including height and weight (via standard techniques), body composition (via bioelectrical impedance analysis), and body shape (via 3-dimensional body scanning) were conducted at the beginning of the freshman year and end of the senior year in 131 college students. Four-year changes included significant (p obese increased from 18% to 31%. The number of females and males with ≥30% and 20% body fat, respectively, increased from n = 14 to n = 26 (with n = 4 exhibiting normal weight obesity) over the 4-year period. The waist circumference changes were significantly (p obesity and normal weight obesity among this college population suggests the need for additional health promotion strategies on college campuses.

Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

2017-02-01

In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

Impact of Early Nutrition on Body Composition in Children Aged 9.5 Years Born with Extremely Low Birth Weight

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Stutte

2017-02-01

Full Text Available To evaluate body composition, metabolism and growth as well as their interaction with early nutrition in former extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW, we assessed qualitative and quantitative nutritional intake during initial hospitalization and infantile growth parameters in 61 former ELBW infants with a birth weight <1000 g. In two follow-up exams, physical and biochemical development were measured at 5.7 and at 9.5 years. At the second follow-up, in addition to biochemical reassessment, body composition was analyzed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA. Protein intake between birth and discharge was associated with weight gain in the first six months of life (r = 0.51; p < 0.01. Weight catch-up preceded height catch-up. Protein intake in early infancy correlated highly significantly with abdominal fat mass (r = 0.49; p < 0.05, but not with lean body mass at 9.5 years (r = 0.30; not significant (n.s.. In contrast to nutrient intake, birth weight was associated with lean body mass (r = 0.433; p < 0.001. Early protein and carbohydrate intake were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL-cholesterol, and early catch-up growth correlated with fasting insulin at follow-up. Stepwise linear regression demonstrated that protein intake predicted fat mass (p < 0.05, whereas only gender and birth weight standard deviation score (SDS contributed significantly to lean body mass variation (p < 0.05. Our results suggest an important impact of early nutrient intake on body composition and metabolism in later childhood in ELBW children.

Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

The effect of extremity strength training on fibromyalgia symptoms and disease impact in an existing multidisciplinary treatment program.

Science.gov (United States)

Kas, Tamara; Colby, Megan; Case, Maureen; Vaughn, Dan

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of upper and lower body extremity strengthening exercise in patients with Fibromyalgia (FM) within an existing multidisciplinary treatment program. Patients between the ages of 18-65 with the medical diagnosis of FM. Comparative study design. The control and experimental group received the same multidisciplinary treatment except that the experimental group performed upper and lower extremity strengthening exercises. The Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) was administered at evaluation and discharge from the program in order to measure change in quality of life (QOL). Statistically significant changes in FIQ scores were found for both groups. The addition of extremity strengthening in the experimental group produced an average 4 points greater reduction in FIQ score, however, these results are not considered statistically significant. This study appears to validate the success of a multidisciplinary approach in treating patients with FM, with the possibility for further benefit with the addition of extremity strengthening. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

To the limit of extreme malnutrition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frølich, Jacob; Buskbjerg, Camilla Viola; Støving, Rene K

2016-01-01

Extreme malnutrition with body mass index (BMI) as low as 10 kg/m(2) is not uncommon in anorexia nervosa, with survival enabled through complex metabolic adaptations. In contrast, outcomes from hunger strikes and famines are usually fatal after weight loss to about 40% below expected body weight...... malnutrition has not previously been reported. The present case emphasizes the importance of adherence...

Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

Quantification of In-flight Physical Changes: Anthropometry and Neutral Body Posture

Science.gov (United States)

Young, K. S.; Reid, C. R.; Rajulu, S.

2014-01-01

Currently, NASA does not have sufficient in-flight anthropometric data gathered to assess the impact of physical body shape and size changes on suit sizing. For developing future planetary and reduced gravity suits, NASA needs to quantify the impacts of microgravity on anthropometry, body posture, and neutral body postures (NBP) to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort. To obtain these impacts, anthropometric data, circumference, length, height, breadth, and depth for body segments (i.e. chest, waist, bicep, thigh, calf) from astronauts for pre, in-, and postflight conditions needs to be collected. Once this data has been collected, a comparison between pre, in-, and postflight anthropometric values will be analyzed, yielding microgravity factors. The NBP will be used to determined body posture (joint angle) changes between subjects throughout the duration of a mission. Data collection, starting with Increments 37/38, is still in progress with the completion of 3 out of 12 subjects. NASA suit engineers and NASA's Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Project Office have identified that suit fit in microgravity could become an issue. It has been noted that crewmembers often need to adjust their suit sizing once they are in orbit. This adjustment could be due to microgravity effects on anthropometry and postural changes, and is necessary to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort in space. To date, the only data collected to determine the effects of microgravity on physical human changes have been during Skylab, STS-57, and a recent HRP study on seated height changes due to spinal elongation (Spinal Elongation, Master Task List [MTL] #221). The Skylab and the STS-57 studies found that there is a distinct neutral body posture (NBP) based on photographs. The still photographs showed that there is a distinguishable posture with the arms raised and the shoulder abducted; and, in addition, the knees were flexed with noticeable hip flexion and the foot

The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

2007-01-01

Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations should......, the subject-group dimension, and the subject-discourse dimension. All three dimensions have specific structural characteristics that are expressed in the analytic relation. Extreme trauma causes disturbances in each of these dimensions. The authors present clinical material from a traumatized refugee...

Mathematical Analysis of Extremity Immersion Cooling for Brain Temperature Management

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William; Berglund, Larry; Gonzalez, Richard

2004-01-01

.... As blood flow rates and surface-to-volume ratios are generally high in the extremities, heat exchange between the body and the environment through the extremities is an important path for heat exchange...

Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

You, Qinglong [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China); Aguilar, Enric [Universitat Rovirai Virgili de Tarragona, Climate Change Research Group, Geography Unit, Tarragona (Spain); Pepin, Nick [University of Portsmouth, Department of Geography, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Fluegel, Wolfgang-Albert [Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Yan, Yuping [National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Xu, Yanwei; Huang, Jie [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang, Yongjun [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China)

2011-06-15

Based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation records at 303 meteorological stations in China, the spatial and temporal distributions of indices of climate extremes are analyzed during 1961-2003. Twelve indices of extreme temperature and six of extreme precipitation are studied. Temperature extremes have high correlations with the annual mean temperature, which shows a significant warming of 0.27 C/decade, indicating that changes in temperature extremes reflect the consistent warming. Stations in northeastern, northern, northwestern China have larger trend magnitudes, which are accordance with the more rapid mean warming in these regions. Countrywide, the mean trends for cold days and cold nights have decreased by -0.47 and -2.06 days/decade respectively, and warm days and warm nights have increased by 0.62 and 1.75 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the number of frost days shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of -3.37 days/decade. The length of the growing season and the number of summer days exhibit significant increasing trends at rates of 3.04 and 1.18 days/decade, respectively. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by -0.18 C/decade. Both the annual extreme lowest and highest temperatures exhibit significant warming trends, the former warming faster than the latter. For precipitation indices, regional annual total precipitation shows an increasing trend and most other precipitation indices are strongly correlated with annual total precipitation. Average wet day precipitation, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, and heavy precipitation days show increasing trends, but only the last is statistically significant. A decreasing trend is found for consecutive dry days. For all precipitation indices, stations in the Yangtze River basin, southeastern and northwestern China have the largest positive trend magnitudes, while stations in the Yellow River basin and in northern China have the largest

Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

2013-01-01

Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

Body piercing with fatal consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranga, N; Jeffery, A J

2011-01-25

Body modifications such as piercings, tattoos and surgery have increased in popularity in recent times and have become more socially acceptable. The common complications of piercing different parts of the human anatomy are well-documented, including sepsis, allergic reactions and, more rarely, endocarditis and ischaemia. Deaths related to piercing complications are primarily septic in origin. In this case, a man in his 50s died due to complications of his multiple umbilical piercings. The cause of death was unusually linked to body modification; the umbilical piercings had ultimately led to a mesenteric infarction. Cases such as these are forensically important due to potential manslaughter charges that could be brought against a piercing establishment. More importantly, this case highlights another extreme complication of body modification. Fashion statements are always changing and impact upon many lives. It is important to highlight to people the potentially life-threatening complications of common piercing practices.

Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming

Science.gov (United States)

Aerenson, Travis; Tebaldi, Claudia; Sanderson, Ben; Lamarque, Jean-François

2018-03-01

Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °C in a special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from definitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Changes in body composition and other anthropometric measures ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background and objectives. An understanding of the effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on various aspects of health, including nutritional status, is needed to ensure that population-specific guidelines can be developed for South Africa. This study aimed to investigate the changes in body composition and ...

Changes in management policies for extremely preterm births and neonatal outcomes from 2003 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonet, Mercedes; Cuttini, M; Piedvache, A

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: to investigate changes in maternity and neonatal unit policies towards extremely preterm infants (EPTI) between 2003 and 2012 and concurrent trends in their mortality and morbidity in ten European regions. DESIGN: population-based cohort studies in 2003 (MOSAIC study) and 2011/12 (EPIC...

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

2017-04-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

Science.gov (United States)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Body composition changes in females treated for breast cancer: a review of the evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheean, Patricia M; Hoskins, Kent; Stolley, Melinda

2012-10-01

Body composition changes cannot be precisely captured using body weight or body mass index measures. Therefore, the primary purpose of this review was to characterize the patterns of body composition change in females treated for breast cancer including only studies that utilize imaging technologies to quantify adipose tissue and lean body mass (LBM). We reviewed PubMed for studies published between 1971 and 2012 involving females diagnosed with breast cancer where computed axial tomography , dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, or magnetic resonance imaging were employed for body composition assessment. Of the initial 440 studies, 106 papers were evaluated and 36 papers met all eligibility criteria (15 observational and 21 intervention trials). Results of these studies revealed that body weight did not consistently increase. Importantly, studies also showed that body weight did not accurately depict changes in lean or adipose tissues. Further findings included that sarcopenic obesity as a consequence of breast cancer treatment was not definitive, as menopausal status may be a substantial moderator of body composition. Overall, the behavioral interventions did not exhibit consistent or profound effects on body composition outcomes; approximately half showed favorable influence on adiposity while the effects on LBM were not apparent. The use of tamoxifen had a clear negative impact on body composition. The majority of studies were conducted in predominantly white survivors, highlighting the need for trials in minority populations. Collectively, these studies were limited by age, race, and/or menopause status matched control groups, overall size, and statistical power. Very few studies simultaneously collected diet and exercise data-two potential factors that impact body composition. Future breast cancer trials should prioritize precise body composition methodologies to elucidate how these changes impact recurrence, prognosis, and mortality, and to provide clinicians

Quantification of ln-Flight Physical Changes: Anthropometry and Neutral Body Posture

Science.gov (United States)

Young, K. S.; Amick, R.; Rajulu, S.

2016-01-01

Currently, NASA does not have sufficient in-flight anthropometric data to assess the impact of changes in body shape and size. For developing future planetary and reduced-gravity suits, NASA needs to quantify the impacts of microgravity on anthropometry and body posture to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort. To obtain data on these changes, circumference, length, height, breadth, and depth for body segments (chest, waist, bicep, thigh, calf) from astronauts for preflight, in-flight, and post-flight conditions needs to be collected. Once these data have been collected, pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight anthropometric values will be compared, yielding microgravity factors. The neutral body posture (NBP) will also be measured, to determine body posture (joint angle) changes between subjects throughout the duration of a mission. Data collection, starting with Increments 37/38, is still in progress but has been completed for 6 out of 9 subjects. NASA suit engineers and NASA's Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Project Office have identified that suit fit in microgravity could become an issue. It has been noted that crewmembers often need to adjust their suit sizing once they are in orbit. This adjustment could be due to microgravity effects on anthropometry and postural changes, and is necessary to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort in space. To date, the only data collected to determine the effects of microgravity on physical human changes were collected during Skylab 4, the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP), Space Shuttle mission STS-57, and a recent HRP study on seated height changes due to spinal elongation (Spinal Elongation, Master Task List [MTL] #221). The Skylab 4, ASTP, and the STS-57 studies found that, according to photographs, a distinct NBP exists. The still photographs showed a distinguishable posture with the arms raised and the shoulders abducted; in addition, the knees are flexed, with noticeable hip flexion, and the foot

A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Fei

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Noordam, M.Y.; Franz, E.; Willems, D.J.M.; Boxall, A.

2013-01-01

According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and

EURADOS intercomparisons in external radiation dosimetry: similarities and differences among exercises for whole-body photon, whole-body neutron, extremity, eye-lens and passive area dosemeters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romero, Ana M.; Grimbergen, Tom; McWhan, Andrew; Stadtmann, Hannes; Fantuzzi, Elena; Clairand, Isabelle; Neumaier, Stefan; Dombrowski, Harald; Figel, Markus

2016-01-01

The European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS) has been organising dosimetry intercomparisons for many years in response to an identified requirement from individual monitoring services (IMS) for independent performance tests for dosimetry systems. The participation in intercomparisons gives IMS the opportunity to show compliance with their own quality management system, compare results with other participants and develop plans for improving their dosimetry systems. In response to growing demand, EURADOS has increased the number of intercomparisons for external radiation dosimetry. Most of these fit into the programme of self-financing intercomparisons for dosemeters routinely used by IMS. This programme is being coordinated by EURADOS working group 2 (WG2). Up to now, this programme has included four intercomparisons for whole-body dosemeters in photon fields, one for extremity dosemeters in photon and beta fields, and one for whole-body dosemeters in neutron fields. Other EURADOS working groups have organised additional intercomparisons including events in 2014 for eye-lens dosemeters and passive area dosemeters for environmental monitoring. In this paper, the organisation and achievements of these intercomparisons are compared in detail focusing on the similarities and differences in their execution. (authors)

Body mass index as a prognostic factor for fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur: a case-control study,

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renato Cavanus Pagani

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Objectives:To compare the body mass index (BMI of patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur with the BMI of patients without any previous history of fractures.Methods:We investigated patients of both sexes, aged 65 years or over, who were admitted to Hospital Independência, Hospital Beneficência Portuguesa or ULBRA University Hospital, between December 2007 and December 2010, with histories of low-energy trauma such as falling from a standingposition. These individuals were compared with patients of the same age but without any history of fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 89, who were attended at the geriatrics outpatient clinic of the Sociedade Porto-Alegrense de Auxílio aos Necessitados (SPAAN.Results:The age group of the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur ranged from 65 to 96 years (mean: 77.58. The main type of fracture was trochanteric (47; 62.2%, followed by femoral neck fractures (27; 36%. Among the patients who presented on fracturing the proximal extremity of the femur, 12% had low weight, 62.7% normal weight, 24% overweight, and 1.3% obesity. Among the patients without any history of fractures, 5.6% presented low weight, 43.8% normal weight, 33.7% overweight, and 9.8% obesity. It was observed that the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 75 presented a mean BMI of 22.6, while the patients without fractures presented a mean BMI of 25.5.Conclusion:The patients in the group with fractures were significantly taller than those in the group without fractures and presented significantly lower BMI than those in the group without fractures.

Personality characteristics in adolescence predict long-term changes in body fatness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koppes, L.L.J.; de Boer, M.R.; Samoocha, D.; Kreuk, I.M.; Pouwer, F.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Mechelen, W.

2008-01-01

Five personality characteristics were assessed in 312 adolescent boys and girls, and investigated in relation to the change in body fat percentage over 22 years of follow up. Boys with low levels of Social Inadequacy and girls with high levels of Recalcitrance showed relatively large gains in body

Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

2011-12-01

Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results

Content of selected elements in Boletus badius fruiting bodies growing in extremely polluted wastes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mleczek, Mirosław; Siwulski, Marek; Mikołajczak, Patrycja; Gąsecka, Monika; Sobieralski, Krzysztof; Szymańczyk, Mateusz; Goliński, Piotr

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyse levels of 17 trace elements and 5 major minerals in 11 Boletus badius fruiting bodies able to grow in extremely polluted waste (flotation tailings) and polluted soil in southern Poland. The presented data widen the limited literature data about the abilities of wild-growing mushroom species to grow on heavily contaminated substrates. Content of elements in waste, soil and mushrooms was analysed by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and cold vapour atomic absorption spectrometry (CVAAS - Hg). The industrial areas differed greatly as regards the content of elements in flotation tailings and soil; therefore differences in Ag, Ba, Cd, Co, Fe, Mo, Ni, Pb, Ca, K, Mg, Na and P accumulation in mushrooms were observed. The highest contents of elements in mushrooms were observed for: As, Al, Cu and Zn (86 ± 28, 549 ± 116, 341 ± 59 and 506 ± 40 mg kg(-1) dry matter, respectively). Calculated bioconcentration factor (BCF) values were higher than 1 for Al (15.1-16.9), Fe (10.6-24.4) and Hg (10.2-16.4) only. The main value of the presented results is the fact that one of the common wild-growing mushroom species was able to grow on flotation tailings containing over 22 g kg(-1) of As and, additionally, effective accumulation of other elements was observed. In view of the high content of the majority of analysed elements in fruiting bodies, edible mushrooms from such polluted areas are nonconsumable.

The effect of smoking habit changes on body weight: Evidence from the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Pieroni, Luca; Salmasi, Luca

2016-03-01

This paper evaluates the causal relationship between smoking and body weight through two waves (2004-2006) of the British Household Panel Survey. We model the effect of changes in smoking habits, such as quitting or reducing, and account for the heterogeneous responses of individuals located at different points of the body mass distribution by quantile regression. We test our results by means of a large set of control groups and investigate their robustness by using the changes-in-changes estimator and accounting for different thresholds to define smoking reductions. Our results reveal the positive effect of quitting smoking on weight changes, which is also found to increase in the highest quantiles, whereas the decision to reduce smoking does not affect body weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A randomized comparison study regarding the impact of short-duration, high-intensity exercise and traditional exercise on anthropometric and body composition measurement changes in post-menopausal women--A pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Grossman, Joan A Cebrick; Payne, Ellen K

2016-03-01

The mode and duration of exercise necessary to change body composition and reduce weight remains debatable. Menopause results in hormonal changes that preclude weight loss. This randomized pilot study compared the effects of short-duration, high-intensity interval training and traditional exercise on anthropometric and body composition measurement changes in post-menopausal women. To compare the effects of short-duration, high-intensity interval training and traditional methods of exercise (walking) on anthropometric, body composition and body weight change over a 12-week period. Subjects (N = 18) were post-menopausal, sedentary female volunteers, randomly assigned into one of two exercise groups. Both groups exercised five out of seven days for 12 weeks. The resistance group (n = 8) (54.3 ± 7.3 years; BMI = 28.0 ± 2.1 kg/m(2); mean ± SD) exercised for 15.0 ± 3.5 min, which consisted of five different exercise routines including upper and lower extremity, a cardio segment, yoga and abdominal exercises. The walkers (n = 10) (56.6 ± 5.2 years; BMI = 29.2 ± 2.6 kg/m(2); mean ± SD) exercised for 40.0 ± 5.0 min at 65% of their age-predicted maximum heart rate. Relative (%) body fat was measured via DEXA scan, along with five anthropometric measurements, all of which were taken prior to and after 12 weeks. Independent sample t-tests were probed for differences, p ≤ 0.05. No statistically significant changes were determined between the groups for pre-and post-measurements. The outcomes of this study provide a foundation for future comparisons of short-duration high-intensity interval training exercise and traditional exercise, or walking, on anthropometric and body composition measurement changes in sedentary, overweight, post-menopausal females over a 12-week period. © The Author(s) 2016.

Estimating extremes in climate change simulations using the peaks-over-threshold method with a non-stationary threshold

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kyselý, Jan; Picek, J.; Beranová, Romana

2010-01-01

Roč. 72, 1-2 (2010), s. 55-68 ISSN 0921-8181 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/1535; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climate change * extreme value analysis * global climate models * peaks-over-threshold method * peaks-over-quantile regression * quantile regression * Poisson process * extreme temperatures Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.351, year: 2010

Body piercing with fatal consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Ranga, N; Jeffery, A J

2011-01-01

Body modifications such as piercings, tattoos and surgery have increased in popularity in recent times and have become more socially acceptable. The common complications of piercing different parts of the human anatomy are well-documented, including sepsis, allergic reactions and, more rarely, endocarditis and ischaemia. Deaths related to piercing complications are primarily septic in origin. In this case, a man in his 50s died due to complications of his multiple umbilical piercings. The cause of death was unusually linked to body modification; the umbilical piercings had ultimately led to a mesenteric infarction. Cases such as these are forensically important due to potential manslaughter charges that could be brought against a piercing establishment. More importantly, this case highlights another extreme complication of body modification. Fashion statements are always changing and impact upon many lives. It is important to highlight to people the potentially life-threatening complications of common piercing practices. PMID:22715261

The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

2015-12-01

As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

Distributed specific sediment yield estimations in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures under a changing climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Ono

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy, geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver.2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario for the future and by accounting for the slope failure probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan.

Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15–20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5–7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with r² = 0.65. The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with r² = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially averaged sediment

Therapeutic use of fractionated total body and subtotal body irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loeffler, R.K.

1981-01-01

Ninety-one patients were treated using fractionated subtotal body (STBI) or total body irradiation (TBI). These patients had generalized lymphomas, Hodgkin's disease, leukemias, myelomas, seminomas, or oat-cell carcinomas. Subtotal body irradiation is delivered to the entire body, except for the skull and extremities. It was expected that a significantly higher radiation dose could be administered with STBI than with TBI. A five- to ten-fold increase in tolerance for STBI was demonstrated. Many of these patients have had long-term emissions. There is little or no treatment-induced symptomatology, and no sanctuary sites

Body temperature change and outcomes in patients undergoing long-distance air medical transport.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakajima, Mikio; Aso, Shotaro; Yasunaga, Hideo; Shirokawa, Masamitsu; Nakano, Tomotsugu; Miyakuni, Yasuhiko; Goto, Hideaki; Yamaguchi, Yoshihiro

2018-04-30

Short-distance air medical transport for adult emergency patients does not significantly affect patients' body temperature and outcomes. This study aimed to examine the influence of long-distance air medical transport on patients' body temperatures and the relationship between body temperature change and mortality. We retrospectively enrolled consecutive patients transferred via helicopter or plane from isolated islands to an emergency medical center in Tokyo, Japan between April 2010 and December 2016. Patients' average body temperature was compared before and after air transport using a paired t-test, and corrections between body temperature change and flight duration were calculated using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Multivariable logistic regression models were then used to examine the association between body temperature change and in-hospital mortality. Of 1253 patients, the median age was 72 years (interquartile range, 60-82 years) and median flight duration was 71 min (interquartile range, 54-93 min). In-hospital mortality was 8.5%, and average body temperature was significantly different before and after air transport (36.7 °C versus 36.3 °C; difference: -0.36 °C; 95% confidence interval, -0.30 to -0.42; p 38.0 °C) or normothermia (36.0-37.9 °C) before air transport and hypothermia after air transport (odds ratio, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.63; p = 0.009), and (ii) winter season (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-4.27; p = 0.030). Physicians should consider body temperature change during long-distance air transport in patients with not only hypothermia but also normothermia or hyperthermia before air transport, especially in winter. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

Science.gov (United States)

Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

Distortion of calculated whole-body hematocrit during lower-body immersion in water.

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, D R; Santoro, T; Bondi, K R

1986-11-01

We found a difference between the venous hematocrits of immersed and nonimmersed arms during immersion of the lower body in cold water but not during a comparable exposure to warm water. Fourteen healthy men were exposed to three different experimental conditions: arm immersion, body immersion, and control. The men always sat upright while both upper extremities hung vertically at their sides. During arm immersion, one forearm was completely immersed for 30 min in either cold water (28 degrees C, n = 7) or warm water (38 degrees C, n = 7). This cold-warm water protocol was repeated on separate days for exposure to the remaining conditions of body immersion (immersion of 1 forearm and all tissues below the xiphoid process) and control (no immersion). Blood samples were simultaneously drawn from cannulated veins in both antecubital fossae. Hematocrit difference (Hct diff) was measured by subtracting the nonimmersed forearm's hematocrit (Hct dry) from the immersed forearm's hematocrit (Hct wet). Hct diff was approximately zero when the men were exposed to the control condition and body immersion in warm water. In the remaining conditions, Hct wet dropped below Hct dry (P less than 0.01, 3-way analysis of variance). The decrements of Hct diff showed there were differences between venous hematocrits in immersed and nonimmersed regions of the body, indicating that changes of the whole-body hematocrit cannot be calculated from a large-vessel hematocrit soon after immersing the lower body in cold water.

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

Science.gov (United States)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

A Projection of the Effects of the Climate Change Induced by Increased CO2 on Extreme Hydrologic Events in the Western U.S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jinwon

2005-01-01

The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the frequency of extreme hydrologic events in the Western United States (WUS) for the 10-yr period of 2040-2049 are examined using dynamically downscaled regional climate change signals. For assessing the changes in the occurrence of hydrologic extremes, downscaled climate change signals in daily precipitation and runoff that are likely to indicate the occurrence of extreme events are examined. Downscaled climate change signals in the selected indicators suggest that the global warming induced by increased CO2 is likely to increase extreme hydrologic events in the WUS. The indicators for heavy precipitation events show largest increases in the mountainous regions of the northern California Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada. Increased cold season precipitation and increased rainfall-portion of precipitation at the expense of snowfall in the projected warmer climate result in large increases in high runoff events in the Sierra Nevada river basins that are already prone to cold season flooding in todays climate. The projected changes in the hydrologic characteristics in the WUS are mainly associated with higher freezing levels in the warmer climate and increases in the cold season water vapor influx from the Pacific Ocean

Change of body height is regulated by thyroid hormone during metamorphosis in flatfishes and zebrafish.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Juan; Ke, Zhonghe; Xia, Jianhong; He, Fang; Bao, Baolong

2016-09-15

Flatfishes with more body height after metamorphosis should be better adapted to a benthic lifestyle. In this study, we quantified the changes in body height during metamorphosis in two flatfish species, Paralichthys olivaceus and Platichthys stellatus. The specific pattern of cell proliferation along the dorsal and ventral edge of the body to allow fast growth along the dorsal/ventral axis might be related to the change of body height. Thyroid hormone (T4 and T3) and its receptors showed distribution or gene expression patterns similar to those seen for the cell proliferation. 2-Mercapto-1-methylimidazole, an inhibitor of endogenous thyroid hormone synthesis, inhibited cell proliferation and decreased body height, suggesting that the change in body shape was dependent on the local concentration of thyroid hormone to induce cell proliferation. In addition, after treatment with 2-mercapto-1-methylimidazole, zebrafish larvae were also shown to develop a slimmer body shape. These findings enrich our knowledge of the role of thyroid hormone during flatfish metamorphosis, and the role of thyroid hormone during the change of body height during post-hatching development should help us to understand better the biology of metamorphosis in fishes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma volume changes during hypoglycaemia: the effect of arterial blood sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hilsted, J; Bendtsen, F; Christensen, N J

1990-01-01

To investigate whether previously reported changes in venous blood volume and composition induced by acute hypoglycaemia in humans are representative for the entire body we measured erythrocyte 51Cr content, haematocrit, plasma volume, intravascular albumin content and transcapillary escape rate...... hypoglycaemia. The magnitude of the changes in arterial and venous blood were not significantly different. These results indicate that the above changes in blood volume and composition are whole-body phenomena: furthermore, the major part of the changes are likely to occur in tissues other than upper extremity...

Body posture changes in women with migraine with or without temporomandibular disorders

OpenAIRE

Ferreira, Mariana C.; Bevilaqua-Grossi, Débora; Dach, Fabíola É.; Speciali, José G.; Gonçalves, Maria C.; Chaves, Thais C.

2014-01-01

Background: Migraine and temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are reported to be associated. However, there are no reports on the association among migraines, TMDs and changes in body posture. Objectives : To assess changes in body posture in women suffering migraines with or without TMD compared with a control group. Method: Sixty-six women with a mean age of 18 to 45 years participated in this study. The groups were composed of 22 volunteers with migraine and TMD (MTMD), 22 volunteers ...

Effects of asymmetrical stance and movement on body rotation in pushing.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yun-Ju; Aruin, Alexander S

2015-01-21

Pushing objects in the presence of body asymmetries could increase the risk of back injury. Furthermore, when the object is heavy, it could exacerbate the effects induced by asymmetrical posture. We investigated how the use of asymmetrical posture and/or upper extremity movement affect vertical torque (Tz) and center of pressure (COP) displacement during pushing. Ten healthy volunteers were instructed to push objects of three different weights using two hands (symmetrical hand use) or one hand (asymmetrical hand use) while standing in symmetrical or asymmetrical foot-positions. The peak values of Tz and COP displacement in the medial-lateral direction (COPML) were analyzed. In cases of isolated asymmetry, changes in the Tz were mainly linked with effects of hand-use whereas effects of foot-position dominated changes in the COPML displacement. In cases of a combined asymmetry, the magnitudes of both Tz and COPML were additive when asymmetrical hand-use and foot-position induced the rotation of the lower and upper body in the same direction or subtractive when asymmetries resulted in the rotation of the body segments in the opposite directions. Moreover, larger Tz and COP displacements were seen when pushing the heavy weight. The results point out the importance of using Tz and COPML to describe the isolated or combined effects of asymmetrical upper extremity movement and asymmetrical posture on body rotation during pushing. Furthermore, it suggests that a proper combination of unilateral arm movement and foot placements could help to reduce body rotation even when pushing heavy objects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

2014-01-01

As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

Reconception and body-mass changes of energy supplemented frrst ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

loss by an average of only 0,02 kg per day and no consistent effect on the reconception .... partum body-mass change of cows, reconception and also growth of calves. ..... No reason could be found for the five Sussex type cows which did not ...

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Electrical stimulation of human lower extremities enhances energy consumption, carbohydrate oxidation, and whole body glucose uptake.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamada, Taku; Hayashi, Tatsuya; Kimura, Tetsuya; Nakao, Kazuwa; Moritani, Toshio

2004-03-01

Our laboratory has recently demonstrated that low-frequency electrical stimulation (ES) of quadriceps muscles alone significantly enhanced glucose disposal rate (GDR) during euglycemic clamp (Hamada T, Sasaki H, Hayashi T, Moritani T, and Nakao K. J Appl Physiol 94: 2107-2112, 2003). The present study is further follow-up to examine the acute metabolic effects of ES to lower extremities compared with voluntary cycle exercise (VE) at identical intensity. In eight male subjects lying in the supine position, both lower leg (tibialis anterior and triceps surae) and thigh (quadriceps and hamstrings) muscles were sequentially stimulated to cocontract in an isometric manner at 20 Hz with a 1-s on-off duty cycle for 20 min. Despite small elevation of oxygen uptake by 7.3 +/- 0.3 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1) during ES, the blood lactate concentration was significantly increased by 3.2 +/- 0.3 mmol/l in initial period (5 min) after the onset of the ES (P increased anaerobic glycolysis by ES. Furthermore, whole body glucose uptake determined by GDR during euglycemic clamp demonstrated a significant increase during and after the cessation of ES for at least 90 min (P energy consumption, carbohydrate oxidation, and whole body glucose uptake at low intensity of exercise. Percutaneous ES may become a therapeutic utility to enhance glucose metabolism in humans.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

The Relationship of Maternal Prepregnancy Body Mass Index and Pregnancy Weight Gain to Neurocognitive Function at Age 10 Years among Children Born Extremely Preterm.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Elizabeth T; van der Burg, Jelske W; O'Shea, Thomas M; Joseph, Robert M; Allred, Elizabeth N; Heeren, Tim; Leviton, Alan; Kuban, Karl C K

2017-08-01

To assess the association between maternal prepregnancy body mass index and adequacy of pregnancy weight gain in relation to neurocognitive function in school-aged children born extremely preterm. Study participants were 535 ten-year-old children enrolled previously in the prospective multicenter Extremely Low Gestational Age Newborns cohort study who were products of singleton pregnancies. Soon after delivery, mothers provided information about prepregnancy weight. Prepregnancy body mass index and adequacy of weight gain were characterized based on this information. Children underwent a neurocognitive evaluation at 10 years of age. Maternal prepregnancy obesity was associated with increased odds of a lower score for Differential Ability Scales-II Verbal IQ, for Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment-II measures of processing speed and visual fine motor control, and for Wechsler Individual Achievement Test-III Spelling. Children born to mothers who gained an excessive amount of weight were at increased odds of a low score on the Oral and Written Language Scales Oral Expression assessment. Conversely, children whose mother did not gain an adequate amount of weight were at increased odds of a lower score on the Oral and Written Language Scales Oral Expression and Wechsler Individual Achievement Test-III Word Reading assessments. In this cohort of infants born extremely preterm, maternal obesity was associated with poorer performance on some assessments of neurocognitive function. Our findings are consistent with the observational and experimental literature and suggest that opportunities may exist to mitigate risk through education and behavioral intervention before pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medical Sequencing at the extremes of Human Body Mass

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahituv, Nadav; Kavaslar, Nihan; Schackwitz, Wendy; Ustaszewski,Anna; Martin, Joes; Hebert, Sybil; Doelle, Heather; Ersoy, Baran; Kryukov, Gregory; Schmidt, Steffen; Yosef, Nir; Ruppin, Eytan; Sharan,Roded; Vaisse, Christian; Sunyaev, Shamil; Dent, Robert; Cohen, Jonathan; McPherson, Ruth; Pennacchio, Len A.

2006-09-01

Body weight is a quantitative trait with significantheritability in humans. To identify potential genetic contributors tothis phenotype, we resequenced the coding exons and splice junctions of58 genes in 379 obese and 378 lean individuals. Our 96Mb survey included21 genes associated with monogenic forms of obesity in humans or mice, aswell as 37 genes that function in body weight-related pathways. We foundthat the monogenic obesity-associated gene group was enriched for rarenonsynonymous variants unique to the obese (n=46) versus lean (n=26)populations. Computational analysis further predicted a significantlygreater fraction of deleterious variants within the obese cohort.Consistent with the complex inheritance of body weight, we did notobserve obvious familial segregation in the majority of the 28 availablekindreds. Taken together, these data suggest that multiple rare alleleswith variable penetrance contribute to obesity in the population andprovide a deep medical sequencing based approach to detectthem.

Functional Body Composition and Related Aspects in Research on Obesity and Cachexia

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, M.J.; Baracos, V.; Bosy-Westphal, A.; Dulloo, A.; Eckel, J.; Fearon, K.C.H.; Hall, K.D.; Pietrobelli, A.; Sørensen, T.I.A.; Speakman, J.; Trayhurn, P.; Visser, M.; Heymsfield, S.B.

2014-01-01

The 12th Stock Conference addressed body composition and related functions in two extreme situations, obesity and cancer cachexia. The concept of “functional body composition” integrates body components into regulatory systems relating the mass of organs and tissues to corresponding in vivo functions and metabolic processes. This concept adds to an understanding of organ/tissue mass and function in the context of metabolic adaptations to weight change and disease. During weight gain and loss there are associated changes in individual body components while the relationships between organ and tissue mass are fixed. Thus, an understanding of weight regulation involves an examination of organ-tissue regulation rather than of individual organ mass. The between organ/tissue mass relationships are associated with and explained by cross-talk between organs and tissues mediated by cytokines, hormones, and metabolites that are coupled with changes in body weight, composition, and function as observed in obesity and cancer cachexia. In addition to established roles in intermediary metabolism, cell function and inflammation, organ-tissue cross-talk mediators are determinants of body composition and its’ change with weight gain and loss. The 12th Stock Conference supported Michael Stocks’ concept of gaining new insights by integrating research ideas from obesity and cancer cachexia. The conference presentations provide an in-depth understanding of body composition and metabolism. PMID:24835453

Seeing fearful body language rapidly freezes the observer's motor cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Borgomaneri, Sara; Vitale, Francesca; Gazzola, Valeria; Avenanti, Alessio

2015-04-01

Fearful body language is a salient signal alerting the observer to the presence of a potential threat in the surrounding environment. Although detecting potential threats may trigger an immediate reduction of motor output in animals (i.e., freezing behavior), it is unclear at what point in time similar reductions occur in the human motor cortex and whether they originate from excitatory or inhibitory processes. Using single-pulse and paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), here we tested the hypothesis that the observer's motor cortex implements extremely fast suppression of motor readiness when seeing emotional bodies - and fearful body expressions in particular. Participants observed pictures of body postures and categorized them as happy, fearful or neutral while receiving TMS over the right or left motor cortex at 100-125 msec after picture onset. In three different sessions, we assessed corticospinal excitability, short intracortical inhibition (SICI) and intracortical facilitation (ICF). Independently of the stimulated hemisphere and the time of the stimulation, watching fearful bodies suppressed ICF relative to happy and neutral body expressions. Moreover, happy expressions reduced ICF relative to neutral actions. No changes in corticospinal excitability or SICI were found during the task. These findings show extremely rapid bilateral modulation of the motor cortices when seeing emotional bodies, with stronger suppression of motor readiness when seeing fearful bodies. Our results provide neurophysiological support for the evolutionary notions that emotion perception is inherently linked to action systems and that fear-related cues induce an urgent mobilization of motor reactions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in Body Compositions and Basal Metabolic Rates during Treatment of Graves’ Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min Joo Kim

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives. Because thyroid hormone is an important determinant of body weight and basal metabolic rate, we investigated the changes in the basal metabolic rate and body composition sequentially after treatment for Graves’ disease. Methods. A prospective cohort study was performed with six women newly diagnosed with Graves’ disease. During a 52-week treatment of methimazole, body composition, resting respiratory expenditure (REE, and handgrip strength were measured consecutively. Results. After methimazole treatment, body weight was initially increased (0–8 weeks, subsequently plateaued (8–24 weeks, and gradually decreased in the later period (24–52 weeks despite the decreased food intake. The measured REE was 40% higher than the predicted REE at baseline, and it gradually decreased after treatment. REE positively correlated with thyroid hormone levels, peripheral deiodinase activity, and thyroid’s secretory capacity. Body compositional analyses showed that the fat mass increased during an earlier period (4–12 weeks, while the lean mass increased significantly during the later period (26–52 weeks. Consistent with the lean mass changes, muscle strength also significantly increased during the later period. Conclusions. Treatment of Graves’ disease increased body weight and fat mass transiently with decreased REE. However, long-term compositional changes moved in a beneficial direction increasing lean mass and reinforcing muscle strength, following decreasing fat percentages.

Family scents: developmental changes in the perception of kin body odor?

Science.gov (United States)

Ferdenzi, Camille; Schaal, Benoist; Roberts, S Craig

2010-08-01

There is increasing evidence that human body odors are involved in adaptive behaviors, such as parental attachment in infants or partner choice in adults. The aim of the present study was to investigate changes in body-odor perception around puberty, a period largely ignored for odor-mediated behavioral changes, despite major changes in social needs and in odor emission and perception. Nine families with two children (8 pre-pubertal, aged 7-10, and 10 pubertal, aged 11-18) evaluated body odors of family members and unfamiliar individuals for pleasantness, intensity, and masculinity, and performed a recognition task. The hypothesized emergence of a parent-child mutual aversion for the odor of opposite-sex family members at puberty was not found, contradicting one of the few studies on the topic (Weisfeld et al., J. Exp. Child Psychol. 85:279-295, 2003). However, some developmental changes were observed, including reduced aversion for odor of the same-sex parent, and increased ability of adults, compared to children, to recognize odor of family members. Sex and personality (depressive and aggressive traits) also significantly influenced odor judgments. Further research with larger samples is needed to investigate the poorly explored issue of how olfactory perception of self and family members develops, and how it could correlate with normal reorganizations in social interactions at adolescence.

Body Mass Changes Associated With Hyper-Gravity are Independent of Adrenal Derived Hormones

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Charles E.; Moran, Megan M.; Wang, Tommy J.; Baer, Lisa A.; Yuan, Fang; Fung, Cyra K.; Stein, T. Peter; Dalton, Bonnie P. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Exposure to hyper-gravity results in a number of metabolic changes associated with increases in catecholamines and corticosterone. These changes result in a loss of body and fat mass. To assess the role of hormones derived from the adrenal gland in the changes we studied sham operated (SO) and adrenalectomized (ADX) male rats exposed to hyper-gravity of 2 G for 14 days. Control groups at 1 G were also studied. Urinary epinephrine (EPI) and corticosterone (CORT) were reduced in ADX animals. In response to 2 G there was an increase in urinary EPI and CORT in SO rats, while levels were unchanged in ADX animals. Both groups of animals had similar increases in urinary norepinephrine levels. The reductions of body mass gain in response to 2 G were the same in both groups. The decrease in relative fat mass was greater in ADX. Energy intake and expenditure were not different between groups. In response of returning to 1 G for 24 hours and reexposure to hyper-gravity there were no differences between SO and ADX in the changes of food and water intake, body mass or activity. The changes in metabolism with exposure to hyper-gravity do not appear to require hormones derived from the adrenal gland. The increase in lypolysis and alterations body and fat mass appear to be modulated by sympathetically derived norepinehrine.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

Science.gov (United States)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

2014-12-01

Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

MR imaging of degenerative lumbar disc disease emphasizing on signal intensity changes in vertebral body

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toyoda, Keiko; Ida, Masahiro; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Harada, Junta; Tada, Shimpei

1992-01-01

Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 400 patients with degenerative disc disease. Signal changes and their sites in the vertebral body were classified and referred to narrowing of the intervertebral disc space. MR findings were compared with those of plain roentgenograms of the lumbar spine. Signal changes in the vertebral body were noted in 83 cases (102 vertebral bodies). Low-intensity abnormality on both T1- and T2-weighted images (WI) was the most common finding, and was most frequently seen at the end plate and/or the angle. These changes were correlated with narrowing of the disc space and osteosclerosis on the plain roentgenogram of the lumbar spine. Signal changes occasionally occurred in the inner region of the vertebral body, and these lesions tended to show a high-intensity abnormality on T1-WI. We conclude that signal changes in degenerative disc disease are not specific, but are sometimes difficult to distinguish from the signal changes in other conditions such as spinal tumor or bone marrow disorder. (author)

Scale orientated analysis of river width changes due to extreme flood hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Krapesch

2011-08-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.

[The heart in extreme sports: hyperbaric activity and microgravity].

Science.gov (United States)

Berrettini, Umberto; Landolfi, Angelo; Patteri, Giovanna

2008-10-01

The study of the cardiovascular and respiratory modifications in extreme environments could be useful for the understanding of the adaptive mechanisms of the body in particular conditions. The knowledge of how different environmental conditions in terms of extreme pressure, temperature and gravity modify the neurovegetative and cardiovascular system could be useful in daily practice for hypobaric and hyperbaric sports.

Glycemic index and glycemic load in relation to changes in body weight, body fat distribution, and body composition in adult Danes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hare-Bruun, Helle; Flint, Anne; Heitmann, Berit L

2006-01-01

born in 1922, 1932, 1942, or 1952. A baseline health examination and a dietary history interview were carried out in 1987 and 1988; a follow-up health examination was performed in 1993 and 1994. RESULTS: Positive associations between GI and changes in body weight (DeltaBW), percentage body fat (Delta......%BF), and waist circumference (DeltaWC) were observed in women after adjustment for covariates. Significant GI x sex x physical activity interactions for DeltaBW, Delta%BF, and DeltaWC were observed, and the associations in the sedentary women were particularly positive. No significant associations with GI were...

Viewing pain and happy faces elicited similar changes in postural body sway.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Gea

Full Text Available Affective facial expressions are potent social cues that can induce relevant physiological changes, as well as behavioral dispositions in the observer. Previous studies have revealed that angry faces induced significant reductions in body sway as compared with neutral and happy faces, reflecting an avoidance behavioral tendency as freezing. The expression of pain is usually considered an unpleasant stimulus, but also a relevant cue for delivering effective care and social support. Nevertheless, there are few data about behavioral dispositions elicited by the observation of pain expressions in others. The aim of the present research was to evaluate approach-avoidance tendencies by using video recordings of postural body sway when participants were standing and observing facial expressions of pain, happy and neutral. We hypothesized that although pain faces would be rated as more unpleasant than the other faces, they would provoke significant changes in postural body sway as compared to neutral facial expressions. Forty healthy female volunteers (mean age 25 participated in the study. Amplitude of forward movements and backward movements in the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral axes were obtained. Statistical analyses revealed that pain faces were the most unpleasant stimuli, and that both happy and pain faces were more arousing than neutral ones. Happy and pain faces also elicited greater amplitude of body sway in the anterior-posterior axes as compared with neutral faces. In addition, significant positive correlations were found between body sway elicited by pain faces and pleasantness and empathic ratings, suggesting that changes in postural body sway elicited by pain faces might be associated with approach and cooperative behavioral responses.

Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

Total body fat percentage and body mass index and the association with lower extremity injuries in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, Eva; Verhagen, Evert; Holst, René

2014-01-01

Overweight youths are generally recognised as being at increased risk of sustaining lower extremity injuries in sports. However, previous studies are inconclusive and choices for measuring overweight are manifold....

Extremity dosimetry in nuclear medicine services using thermoluminescent detectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mebhah, D.; Djeffal, S.; Badreddine, A.; Medjahed, M.

1993-01-01

The Radiation Protection and Safety Centre in Algiers provides two types of dosemeters, one for monitoring doses to the whole body and skin and the other one for monitoring doses to the extremities of the body. In nuclear medicine services and radiopharmaceutical laboratories, hands and arms are often closer to a given radiation source than the main part of the body and therefore receive greater doses. In this context, extremity doses have been measured by a ring dosemeter and by a fingertip ultra-thin dosemeter. The ring dosemeter consists of a metallic ring with a circular indentation to hold a LiF chip which is covered with a 10 mg.cm -2 shrinkable black polyamide layer. The ultra-thin dosemeter contains a 5 mg.cm -2 LiF element for measuring doses at a depth of 7 mg.cm -2 . These extremity dosemeters have been characterised before their use in the field. They have also been tested using radioisotopes of various energies. The doses received by the monitored workers were correlated with the amount of the handled activity. The doses obtained using the fingertip and the ring dosemeters are presented and discussed from a radiological point of view. (author)

Effects of exercise during the holiday season on changes in body weight, body composition and blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson, J L; Krishnan, S; Stoner, M A; Goktas, Z; Cooper, J A

2013-09-01

Identifying critical periods of greater weight gain could provide useful information to combat the obesity epidemic. We tested whether body weight (BW), body fat percentage (BF%) and blood pressure (BP) changed during the holiday season (thanksgiving to new year's day) and the impact of regular exercise on these parameters. A total of 48 males and 100 females (age 18-65 years) with a mean body mass index of 25.1±0.5 kg/m(2) were evaluated in mid-November (visit 1) and early January (visit 2; across 57±0.5 days). Anthropometric data, BF%, BP and self-reported exercise were recorded. Participants showed significant increases in BW (0.78±0.1 kg, Pholiday weight gain and was not a significant predictor for changes in BW or BF%. Data are reported as means±s.e. Our participants gained an average of 0.78 kg, which indicates the majority of average annual weight gain (1 kg/y) reported by others may occur during the holiday season. Obese participants are most at risk as they showed the greatest increases in BF%. Initial BW, not exercise, significantly predicted BF% and BW gain.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-07-29

With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alana Hansen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Crystal Romeo Upperman

Full Text Available Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989 that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate, including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events; responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

2015-01-01

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

Exploration of Extreme Terrain Using a Polyhedral Rover

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Exploring celestial bodies with extreme terrains in our solar system, like Mars, Europa, Enceladus, and asteroids, are of great importance to NASA because these...

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E

2016-01-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979–2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons. (letter)

Changes in body weight and pulse

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seimon, R V; Espinoza, D; Finer, N

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined the rela......BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined...... the relationship between early changes (both increases and decreases) in pulse rate, and the impact of these changes on subsequent cardiovascular outcome events in both the placebo and sibutramine groups. SUBJECTS/METHODS: 9804 males and females, aged ⩾55 years, with a body mass index of 27-45 kg m(-)(2) were...... included in this current subanalysis of the SCOUT trial. Subjects were required to have a history of cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, to assess cardiovascular outcomes. The primary outcome event (POE) was a composite of nonfatal myocardial...

Attribution of climate extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

2015-08-01

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Mediation of the relationship of behavioural treatment type and changes in psychological predictors of healthy eating by body satisfaction changes in women with obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Annesi, James J

Psychological correlates of both short- and long-term weight loss are poorly understood. Changes in satisfaction with one's body might serve to motivate healthier eating by mediating treatments' effect on psychological factors previously suggested to be associated with weight loss. Women with obesity (age 48.6±7.1 years; BMI 35.4±3.3kg/m 2 ) were randomly assigned to social cognitive theory-based weight-management treatments that were either group sessions emphasizing physical activity-derived self-regulation (experimental; n=53) or review of a written manual and phone support (comparison; n=54). Changes in weight, physical activity, body satisfaction, negative mood, and self-efficacy and self-regulation for controlled eating were assessed over 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The experimental treatment was associated with significantly more favourable changes across variables. Over 6, 12, and 24 months, body satisfaction change mediated relationships between treatment type and changes in each of the psychological predictors of healthier eating (mood, self-efficacy, self-regulation). Reciprocal, mutually reinforcing, relationships between changes in body satisfaction and those psychological predictors were also found. Increased physical activity was associated with improved body satisfaction, even after controlling for weight changes. Findings increased understandings of the role of body satisfaction in improving psychological predictors of healthier eating over both the short- and longer-term. Results also suggested that body satisfaction could be improved through increased physical activity, irrespective of change in weight. Although results were limited to women with class 1 and 2 obesity, findings on interactions of psychological factors associated with eating changes have implications for the architecture of improved behavioural treatments. Copyright © 2016 Asia Oceania Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Body Composition, Lipid Profile, Adipokine Concentration, and Antioxidant Capacity Changes during Interventions to Treat Overweight with Exercise Programme and Whole-Body Cryostimulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Lubkowska

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the effect of six-month-long physical exercise programme with a two-time exposure to whole-body cryostimulation (WBC in 20 sessions on antioxidant enzyme activities, lipid profile, and body composition changes in obese people (30 adult subjects; BMI = 30.39 ± 4.31 kg/m2. Blood samples were taken before the programme, one month following the exercise programme, before and after the first WBC treatment, six months following the exercise programme, after the second WBC treatment, and finally one month after the intervention. Six months of moderate aerobic activity combined with WBC did not change body mass or fat and lean body mass percentages, or circulating adiponectin, leptin, and resistin concentrations. In response to intervention a significant decrease in the level of low-density lipoprotein and triglycerides was observed, with a slight increase in high-density lipoprotein concentration. The nature of changes in the activity of respective antioxidant enzymes was not identical. After one month of increased physical activity, a significant decrease in superoxide dismutase, catalase, and glutathione reductase activities was observed (13%, 8%, and 70%, resp.. The SOD activity increased significantly after successive whole-body cryostimulation sessions. As regards catalase, a significant progressive decrease in its activity was observed.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

Body weight and body composition changes during military training and deployment involving the use of combat rations: a systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Tassone, Eliza C; Baker, Bradley A

2017-03-01

Dismounted military personnel operate in physically and psychologically demanding environments, with energy intake from combat rations often falling short of their requirements, leading to reductions in body weight and changes in body composition, which can impact both their health and performance. This review systematically investigated the effects of the continual use of combat rations for periods of 3-40 d on body weight and/or body composition in military personnel engaged in training or deployment. In all, ten databases were searched from their inception until October 2016. Outcome data were described narratively, with studies assessed for quality and risk of bias. A total of thirty studies undertaken over 3-34 d were included. Studies were rated positive, neutral or negative in quality according to the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Quality Checklist, with many at risk of bias. Reductions in mean body weight varied, from a negligible decrease of 0·1 % during 8 d of combat training to a substantial decrease of approximately 8·3 % during 12 d of energy restriction during a US Army Ranger course. Decreases in fat mass, fat-free mass and percentage body fat were also reported. There is thus evidence that the continual use of combat rations for periods of 3-34 d results in reductions in body weight and body composition changes which, in some scenarios, may impact on the performance of troops. Body weight and composition should be routinely monitored before and after field activities, and at more regular intervals depending on the length, intensity and type of activity being undertaken.

Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

2012-01-01

Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wehner

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights

Evolution of extreme rainfall in France with a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Veysseire, Jean-Michel; Gouget, Viviane; Neppel, Luc; Tramblay, Yves; Carreau, Julie

2015-01-01

This paper focuses a synthesis of the works led within the framework of the French project ANR/Extraflo on the evolution of the daily (and infra daily) extreme rainfall in France. An important dataset of more than 900 series was used. It was shown that a majority of series presented a not significant upward trend in particular in Mediterranean area, in relation with various recent exceptional extreme events. An interesting way to characterize this evolution consists in identifying climatic co-variables associated to heavy rainfall events (weather patterns, average temperatures, flow of humidity) and in taking into account them with a non stationary POT model. The application of this method with climatic projections under scenario A2 from IPCC could lead to a possible increase on extreme precipitation quantiles on the horizon 2070. (authors)

Reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the lower extremity functional scale in individuals affected by stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Verheijde, Joseph L; White, Fred; Tompkins, James; Dahl, Peder; Hentz, Joseph G; Lebec, Michael T; Cornwall, Mark

2013-12-01

To investigate reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) in individuals affected by stroke. The secondary objective was to test the validity and sensitivity of a single-item linear analog scale (LAS) of function. Prospective cohort reliability and validation study. A single rehabilitation department in an academic medical center. Forty-three individuals receiving neurorehabilitation for lower extremity dysfunction after stroke were studied. Their ages ranged from 32 to 95 years, with a mean of 70 years; 77% were men. Test-retest reliability was assessed by calculating the classical intraclass correlation coefficient, and the Bland-Altman limits of agreement. Validity was assessed by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient between the instruments. Sensitivity to change was assessed by comparing baseline scores with end of treatment scores. Measurements were taken at baseline, after 1-3 days, and at 4 and 8 weeks. The LEFS, Short-Form-36 Physical Function Scale, Berg Balance Scale, Six-Minute Walk Test, Five-Meter Walk Test, Timed Up-and-Go test, and the LAS of function were used. The test-retest reliability of the LEFS was found to be excellent (ICC = 0.96). Correlated with the 6 other measures of function studied, the validity of the LEFS was found to be moderate to high (r = 0.40-0.71). Regarding the sensitivity to change, the mean LEFS scores from baseline to study end increased 1.2 SD and for LAS 1.1 SD. LEFS exhibits good reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change in patients with lower extremity impairments secondary to stroke. Therefore, the LEFS can be a clinically efficient outcome measure in the rehabilitation of patients with subacute stroke. The LAS is shown to be a time-saving and reasonable option to track changes in a patient's functional status. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of extreme traumatization on body, mind and social relations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre

2007-01-01

Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations should...

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and body weight change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Marianne Uhre; Dethlefsen, Claus; Due, Karen Margrete

2011-01-01

We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers.......We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers....

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R

2018-01-01

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bradley S Law

Full Text Available Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012 of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species, unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not

An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Sterl

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

Field method to measure changes in percent body fat of young women: The TIGER Study

Science.gov (United States)

Body mass index (BMI), waist (W) and hip (H) circumference (C) are commonly used to assess changes in body composition for field research. We developed a model to estimate changes in dual energy X-ray absorption (DXA) percent fat (% fat) from these variables with a diverse sample of young women fro...

The Influence of Lower Extremity Lean Mass on Landing Biomechanics During Prolonged Exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Montgomery, Melissa M; Tritsch, Amanda J; Cone, John R; Schmitz, Randy J; Henson, Robert A; Shultz, Sandra J

2017-08-01

  The extent to which lower extremity lean mass (LELM) relative to total body mass influences one's ability to maintain safe landing biomechanics during prolonged exercise when injury incidence increases is unknown.   To examine the influence of LELM on (1) pre-exercise lower extremity biomechanics and (2) changes in biomechanics during an intermittent exercise protocol (IEP) and (3) determine whether these relationships differ by sex. We hypothesized that less LELM would predict higher-risk baseline biomechanics and greater changes toward higher-risk biomechanics during the IEP.   Cohort study.   Controlled laboratory.   A total of 59 athletes (30 men: age = 20.3 ± 2.0 years, height = 1.79 ± 0.05 m, mass = 75.2 ± 7.2 kg; 29 women: age = 20.6 ± 2.3 years, height = 1.67 ± 0.08 m, mass = 61.8 ± 9.0 kg) participated.   Before completing an individualized 90-minute IEP designed to mimic a soccer match, participants underwent dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry testing for LELM.   Three-dimensional lower extremity biomechanics were measured during drop-jump landings before the IEP and every 15 minutes thereafter. A previously reported principal components analysis reduced 40 biomechanical variables to 11 factors. Hierarchical linear modeling analysis then determined the extent to which sex and LELM predicted the baseline score and the change in each factor over time.   Lower extremity lean mass did not influence baseline biomechanics or the changes over time. Sex influenced the biomechanical factor representing knee loading at baseline (P = .04) and the changes in the anterior cruciate ligament-loading factor over time (P = .03). The LELM had an additional influence only on women who possessed less LELM (P = .03 and .02, respectively).   Lower extremity lean mass influenced knee loading during landing in women but not in men. The effect appeared to be stronger in women with less LELM. Continually decreasing knee loading over time may reflect a

A dance to the music of time: aesthetically-relevant changes in body posture in performing art.

Science.gov (United States)

Daprati, Elena; Iosa, Marco; Haggard, Patrick

2009-01-01

In performing arts, body postures are both means for expressing an artist's intentions, and also artistic objects, appealing to the audience. The postures of classical ballet obey the body's biomechanical limits, but also follow strict rules established by tradition. This combination offers a perfect milieu for assessing scientifically how the execution of this particular artistic activity has changed over time, and evaluating what factors may induce such changes. We quantified angles between body segments in archive material showing dancers from a leading company over a 60-year period. The data showed that body positions supposedly fixed by codified choreography were in fact implemented by very different elevation angles, according to the year of ballet production. Progressive changes lead to increasingly vertical positions of the dancer's body over the period studied. Experimental data showed that these change reflected aesthetic choices of naïve modern observers. Even when reduced to stick figures and unrecognisable shapes, the more vertical postures drawn from later productions were systematically preferred to less vertical postures from earlier productions. This gradual change within a conservative art form provides scientific evidence that aesthetic change may arise from continuous interaction between artistic tradition, individual artists' creativity, and a wider environmental context. This context may include social aesthetic pressure from audiences.

Validation of bioelectrical-impedance analysis as a measurement of change in body composition in obesity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kushner, R.F.; Kunigk, A.; Alspaugh, M.; Andronis, P.T.; Leitch, C.A.; Schoeller, D.A.

1990-01-01

The bioelectrical-impedance-analysis (BIA) method accurately measures body composition in weight-stable subjects. This study validates the use of BIA to measure change in body composition. Twelve obese females underwent weight loss at a mean rate of 1.16 kg/wk. Body composition was measured by deuterium oxide dilution (D2O), BIA, and skinfold anthropometry (SFA) at baseline and at 5% decrements in weight. Highly significant correlations were obtained between D2O and BIA (r = 0.971) and between D2O and SFA (r = 0.932). Overall, BIA predicted change in fat-free mass with greater accuracy (to 0.4 kg) and precision (+/- 1.28 kg) than did anthropometry (to 0.8 kg and +/- 2.58 kg, respectively). We conclude that BIA is a useful clinical method for measuring change in body composition

Lifestyle, body composition, and physical fitness changes in Hungarian school boys (1975-2005).

Science.gov (United States)

Photiou, A; Anning, J H; Mészáros, J; Vajda, I; Mészáros, Z; Sziva, A; Prókai, A; Ng, N

2008-06-01

General socioeconomic conditions as well as the physical environment have undergone remarkable changes in Hungary during the past 30 years. Unfortunately, these positive processes have resulted in a reduction of habitual physical activity along with unfavorable changes in dietary habits. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to compare some selected morphological and functional parameters of 7-14-year-old Hungarian schoolboys living in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginning of the new millennium. It was hypothesized that there would be significant differences in morphological and functional characteristics of the Hungarian schoolboy populations, because they were assessed 30 years apart. Means of height, body mass, body mass index (BMI), the sum of five skinfold tests, percentage of body fat, and two running performance times (400 m and 1,200 m) of the boys (N = 3,672) studied in 1975 were compared to those of the boys (N = 3,758) in 2005. Data were analyzed using two-tailed independent samples t tests (p changes in body mass and height. In addition, boys in 2005 had significantly more subcutaneous fat compared to 1975. The running times for the two distances were significantly poorer at the time of the second investigation. The remarkable and unfavorable changes in body composition and cardiorespiratory performance were attributed to the continuously decreasing intensity of habitual physical exercise and a lifestyle that had become more sedentary (watching TV playing computer games, etc.). Radical interventions are necessary to reduce these risks associated with the high prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Hungary, and the challenge to resolve the problem requires combined efforts at the educational, societal, corporate, and governmental levels.

FTO genotype is associated with exercise training-induced changes in body composition

Science.gov (United States)

Rankinen, Tuomo; Rice, Treva; Teran-Garcia, Margarita; Rao, D.C.; Bouchard, Claude

2010-01-01

The fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene is the first obesity-susceptibility gene identified by genome-wide association scans and confirmed in several follow-up studies. Homozygotes for the risk allele (A/A) have 1.67 times greater risk of obesity than those who do not have the allele. However, it is not known if regular exercise-induced changes in body composition are influenced by the FTO genotype. The purpose of our study was to test if the FTO genotype is associated with exercise-induced changes in adiposity. Body composition was derived from underwater weighing before and after a 20-week endurance training program in 481 previously sedentary white subjects of the HERITAGE Family Study. FTO SNP rs8050136 was genotyped using Illumina GoldenGate assay. In the sedentary state, the A/A homozygotes were significantly heavier and fatter than the heterozygotes and the C/C homozygotes in men (p=0.004) but not in women (p=0.331; gene-by-sex interaction p=0.0053). The FTO genotype was associated with body fat responses to regular exercise (p<0.005; adjusted for age, sex, and baseline value of response trait): carriers of the C-allele showed three times greater fat mass and %body fat losses than the A/A homozygotes. The FTO genotype explained 2% of the variance in adiposity changes. Our data suggest that the FTO obesity-susceptibility genotype influences the body fat responses to regular exercise. Resistance to exercise-induced reduction in total adiposity may represent one mechanism by which the FTO A allele promotes overweight and obesity. PMID:19543202

Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guimberteau, M; Ronchail, J; Lengaigne, M; Sultan, B; Drapeau, G; Espinoza, J C; Polcher, J; Guyot, J-L; Ducharne, A; Ciais, P

2013-01-01

Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35

Changes in perinatal care and survival in very preterm and extremely preterm infants in the Netherlands between 1983 and 1995

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anthony, S.; Ouden, L.D.; Brand, R.; Verloove-Vanhorick, P.; Gravenhorst, J.B.

2004-01-01

Objective: To evaluate changes in obstetrical and neonatal care for very preterm and extremely preterm infants between 1983 and 1995 in The Netherlands and to evaluate the effect of those changes. Study design: Data on all very preterm or VLBW infants from the linked national obstetrical and

Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

The change in body stressed to relaxed body through breathing, visualization and a protective environment together

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evelyn I. Rodríguez Morrill

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This work shows several ways to meet and relax the body through personal knowledge and techniques encounter with nature. Modern life and fast, the constant pressure from childhood to adulthood, in the modes of interaction between individuals and groups, they lead to construction of bodies that reflect emotional anatomy visible loss of balance, contractures, inflammation, multiple imbalances by lack of knowledge and awareness especially being in the world fully, the person has moved away from its ecological relationship with itself and the environment. Methods are shown to positively change a condition of constant stress and chronic discomfort, a learned condition of physical and psychological wellbeing, with a series of movements, recovering the body through exercise, to tend to personal balance, obtaining a positive relationship with the environment and the people attended. The proposal starts promoting new habits that can be saved in consciousness. Partly, mainly of breath, alignment with the music and the environment and personal and group work

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa: Application of extreme value theory and fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and their effects on mean values and long-term changes

Science.gov (United States)

Rieder, Harald E.; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Jörg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; Stübi, Rene; Weihs, Philipp; Holawe, Franz

2010-05-01

In this study tools from extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001; Ribatet, 2007) are applied for the first time in the field of stratospheric ozone research, as statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not address the internal data structure concerning extremes adequately. The study illustrates that tools based on extreme value theory are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland - for details see Staehelin et al., 1998a,b) (Rieder et al., 2010a). A daily moving threshold was implemented for consideration of the seasonal cycle in total ozone. The frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone and the influence of those on mean values and trends is analyzed for Arosa total ozone time series. The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Furthermore, it is shown that the fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with very high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima). Also the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds) can be calculated with high accuracy. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight in time series properties. Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Gunung Agung, El Chich

Self-Reported Extremely Adverse Life Events and Longitudinal Changes in Five-Factor Model Personality Traits in an Urban Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; Terracciano, Antonio; Patriciu, Nicholas S.; Eaton, William W.; Costa, Paul T.

2009-01-01

This study examined longitudinal personality change in response to extremely adverse life events in a sample (N = 458) drawn from the East Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. Five-factor model personality traits were assessed twice over an average interval of 8 years. Twenty-five percent of the participants reported an extremely horrifying or frightening event within 2 years before the second personality assessment. Relative to the rest of the sample, they showed increases in neuroticism, decreases in the compliance facet of agreeableness, and decreases in openness to values. Baseline personality was unrelated to future events, but among participants who reported extreme events, lower extraversion and/or conscientiousness at baseline as well as longitudinal increases in neuroticism predicted lower mental health at follow-up. PMID:19230009

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

[Etiological and exacerbation factors for COPD. Body weight loss].

Science.gov (United States)

Yokoyama, Akihito

2016-05-01

Hunger or malnutrition is not only a historical issue but also a current problem worldwide. Biological responses to hunger are evolutionary prepared in our body, including energy generation by degradation of body proteins. Extreme weight loss (malnutrition) can cause air space enlargement in human and rodents. However, the changes in rodents could be reversible, since refeeding could repair the pathology. On the other hand, weight loss is a common feature in patients with more severe COPD. Complex factors, such as increased energy consumption, decreased food uptake by low grade inflammation, socio-economic factors and so on, are involved in weight loss. Weight loss in patients with COPD also increases the risk of exacerbation, hospitalization, and death.

Changes in CT density-measurement of intraorbital wooden foreign bodies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otani, Etsuko; Hiyama, Fusako; Machi, Setsuko; Hagihara, Masahiro.

1991-01-01

We examined in vitro changes in CT density-measurement of intraorbital wooden foreign bodies. Dry wooden sticks were immersed in distilled water, saline, and serum. Computerized tomography scans were taken several times during 22 weeks. Scans were taken in room air and in fatty tissue. The CT density-measurement of the central part of the wooden bodies was calculated. That of the dry wood was about 500 HU; all of the wooden foreign bodies became denser during the 22 weeks, with those immersed in distilled water and saline at about 130 HU, and those immersed in serum at about 150 HU. It was confirmed that wood becomes denser after soaking in aqueous environments. The CT density of wood soaked in water depends on the density of wood fiber, and the CT density of the wood fiber itself. (author)

Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960-2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations?

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; David Chen, Yongqin; Chen, Xiaohong

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to statistically examine changes of surface air temperature in time and space and to analyze two factors potentially influencing air temperature changes in China, i.e., urbanization and net solar radiation. Trends within the temperature series were detected by using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. The scientific problem this study expected to address was that what could be the role of human activities in the changes of temperature extremes. Other influencing factors such as net solar radiation were also discussed. The results of this study indicated that: (1) increasing temperature was observed mainly in the northeast and northwest China; (2) different behaviors were identified in the changes of maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Maximum temperature seemed to be more influenced by urbanization, which could be due to increasing urban albedo, aerosol, and air pollutions in the urbanized areas. Minimum temperature was subject to influences of variations of net solar radiation; (3) not significant increasing and even decreasing temperature extremes in the Yangtze River basin and the regions south to the Yangtze River basin could be the consequences of higher relative humidity as a result of increasing precipitation; (4) the entire China was dominated by increasing minimum temperature. Thus, we can say that the warming process of China was reflected mainly by increasing minimum temperature. In addition, consistently increasing temperature was found in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, which have the potential to enhance the melting of permafrost in these areas. This may trigger new ecological problems and raise new challenges for the river basin scale water resource management.

Association of childhood body mass index and change in body mass index with first adult ischemic stroke

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjærde, Line K.; Gamborg, Michael; Ängquist, Lars

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE: The incidence of ischemic stroke among young adults is rising and is potentially due to an increase in stroke risk factors occurring at younger ages, such as obesity. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether childhood body mass index (BMI) and change in BMI are associated with adult ischemi...

Effect of an environmental school-based obesity prevention program on changes in body fat and body weight: a randomized trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, Donald A; Champagne, Catherine M; Harsha, David W; Han, Hongmei; Martin, Corby K; Newton, Robert L; Sothern, Melinda S; Stewart, Tiffany M; Webber, Larry S; Ryan, Donna H

2012-08-01

This study tested the efficacy of two school-based programs for prevention of body weight/fat gain in comparison to a control group, in all participants and in overweight children. The Louisiana (LA) Health study utilized a longitudinal, cluster randomized three-arm controlled design, with 28 months of follow-up. Children (N = 2,060; mean age = 10.5 years, SD = 1.2) from rural communities in grades 4-6 participated in the study. Seventeen school clusters (mean = 123 children/cluster) were randomly assigned to one of three prevention arms: (i) primary prevention (PP), an environmental modification (EM) program, (ii) primary + secondary prevention (PP+SP), the environmental program with an added classroom and internet education component, or (iii) control (C). Primary outcomes were changes in percent body fat and BMI z scores. Secondary outcomes were changes in behaviors related to energy balance. Comparisons of PP, PP+SP, and C on changes in body fat and BMI z scores found no differences. PP and PP+SP study arms were combined to create an EM arm. Relative to C, EM decreased body fat for boys (-1.7 ± 0.38% vs. -0.14 ± 0.69%) and attenuated fat gain for girls (2.9 ± 0.22% vs. 3.93 ± 0.37%), but standardized effect sizes were relatively small (environmental program did not enhance weight/fat gain prevention, but did impact physical activity and social support in overweight children.

Determinants of change in body weight and body fat distribution over 5.5 years in a sample of free-living black South African women.

Science.gov (United States)

Chantler, Sarah; Dickie, Kasha; Micklesfield, Lisa K; Goedecke, Julia H

To identify socio-demographic and lifestyle determinants of weight gain in a sample of premenopasual black South African (SA) women. Changes in body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, computerised tomography), socio-economic status (SES) and behavioural/lifestyle factors were measured in 64 black SA women at baseline (27 ± 8 years) and after 5.5 years. A lower body mass index (BMI) and nulliparity, together with access to sanitation, were significant determinants of weight gain and change in body fat distribution over 5.5 years. In addition, younger women increased their body weight more than their older counterparts, but this association was not independent of other determinants. Further research is required to examine the effect of changing SES, as well as the full impact of childbearing on weight gain over time in younger women with lower BMIs. This information will suggest areas for possible intervention to prevent long-term weight gain in these women.

Changes in health-related behaviors and their effect on dissatisfaction with body weight in youths

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Augusto Santos Silva

2014-05-01

Full Text Available DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2014v16s1p79 The aim of the present study was to establish whether changes in health related behaviors are associated with changes in the satisfaction/dissatisfaction with body weight in youths. It was a prospective study that performed a secondary analysis of data from Project “Saúde na Boa”, which included youths attending night classes in secondary public schools in Recife in the state of Pernambuco and Florianópolis in the state of Santa Catarina. Data on the youths’ body type (thinness or excess weight and degree of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with body weight and lifestyle (level of physical activity, participation in physical education classes, sedentary behavior and snacks, soda and alcohol intake were collected at 10 schools from each town (five in the intervention group and five in the control group. The percentages of youths dissatisfied with their body weight were 50.5% and 48.6% at baseline and after intervention, respectively. The percentage of youths with body dissatisfaction due to thinness decreased (21.4% vs. 16.5%, while the percentage of youths with body dissatisfaction due to excess weight increased (29.1% vs. 32.1%. Approximately 41.2% of the youths with body dissatisfaction due to thinness and 18.3% of those dissatisfied due to excess weight became satisfied with their body weight after intervention. The intervention targeting health-related behaviors induced changes in the youths’ degree of satisfaction with their body weight.

Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

2014-04-05

Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

Change in body size and mortality: results from the Melbourne collaborative cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Karahalios, Amalia; Simpson, Julie A; Baglietto, Laura; MacInnis, Robert J; Hodge, Allison M; Giles, Graham G; English, Dallas R

2014-01-01

The association between change in weight or body mass index, and mortality is widely reported, however, both measures fail to account for fat distribution. Change in waist circumference, a measure of central adiposity, in relation to mortality has not been studied extensively. We investigated the association between mortality and changes in directly measured waist circumference, hips circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007) in a prospective cohort study of people aged 40-69 years at baseline. Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for confounding variables, was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for change in body size in relation to mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. There were 1465 deaths (109 cancer, 242 cardiovascular disease) identified during an average 7.7 years of follow-up from 21 298 participants. Compared to minimal increase in body size, loss of waist circumference (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09-1.47), weight (1.80; 1.54-2.11), or hips circumference (1.35; 1.15-1.57) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, particularly for older adults. Weight loss was associated with cardiovascular disease mortality (2.40; 1.57-3.65) but change in body size was not associated with obesity-related cancer mortality. This study confirms the association between weight loss and increased mortality from all-causes for older adults. Based on evidence from observational cohort studies, weight stability may be the recommended option for most adults, especially older adults.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin

2017-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

Science.gov (United States)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

2010-12-01

The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Towards constraining extreme temperature projections of the CMIP5 ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Martha-Marie; Orth, René; Isabelle Seneviratne, Sonia

2016-04-01

The frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected to change in future in response to global warming. Given the severe impacts of heat waves on ecosystems and society it is important to understand how and where they will intensify. Projections of extreme hot temperatures in the IPCC AR5 model ensemble show large uncertainties for projected changes of extreme temperatures in particular in Central Europe. In this region land-atmosphere coupling can contribute substantially to the development of heat waves. This coupling is also subject to change in future, while model projections display considerable spread. In this work we link projections of changes in extreme temperatures and of changes in land-atmosphere interactions with a particular focus on Central Europe. Uncertainties in projected extreme temperatures can be partly explained by different projected changes of the interplay between latent heat and temperature as well as soil moisture. Given the considerable uncertainty in land-atmosphere coupling representation already in the current climate, we furthermore employ observational data sets to constrain the model ensemble, and consequently the extreme temperature projections.

Upper extremities flexibility comparisons of collegiate "soft" martial art practitioners with other athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, C-C; Yang, Y-H; Chen, C-H; Chen, T-W; Lee, C-L; Wu, C-L; Chuang, S-H; Huang, M-H

2008-03-01

The aim of this study was to compare the flexibility of the upper extremities in collegiate students involved in Aikido (a kind of soft martial art attracting youth) training with those involved in other sports. Fifty freshmen with a similar frequency of exercise were divided into the Aikido group (n = 18), the upper-body sports group (n = 17), and the lower-body sports group (n = 15) according to the sports that they participated in. Eight classes of range of motion in upper extremities were taken for all subjects by the same clinicians. The Aikido group had significantly better flexibility than the upper-body sports group except for range of motion in shoulder flexion (p = 0.22), shoulder lateral rotation (p > 0.99), and wrist extension (p > 0.99). The Aikido group also had significantly better flexibility than the lower-body sports group (p < 0.01) and the sedentary group (p < 0.01) in all classes of range of motion. The upper-body sports group was significantly more flexible in five classes of range of motion and significantly tighter in range of motion of wrist flexion (p < 0.01) compared to the lower-body sports group. It was concluded that the youths participating in soft martial arts had good upper extremities flexibility that might not result from regular exercise alone.

Deeply torpid bats can change position without elevation of body temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartonička, Tomáš; Bandouchova, Hana; Berková, Hana; Blažek, Ján; Lučan, Radek; Horáček, Ivan; Martínková, Natália; Pikula, Jiri; Řehák, Zdeněk; Zukal, Jan

2017-01-01

Because body temperature is tightly coupled to physiological function, hibernating animals entering deep torpor are typically immobile. We analysed thermal behaviour and locomotory activity of hibernating greater mouse-eared bats Myotis myotis and found two types of movement behaviour related to body temperature, i.e. movement at high fur temperature and at low fur temperatures (Tflow; body temperature. Distance travelled, flight duration and speed of locomotion during Tflow events was lower than in high fur temperature events. Such behaviour could allow bats to save energy long-term and prolong torpor bouts. Tflow movement in torpid bats significantly changes our understanding of basic hibernation principles and we strongly recommend further studies on the subject. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

Science.gov (United States)

Dugan, Jenifer E.; Hubbard, David M.; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S.

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal

Body to scalp: Evolving trends in body hair transplantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuldeep Saxena

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Follicular unit extraction (FUE is becoming an increasingly popular method for hair restoration. As FUE leaves behind no linear scars, it is more suitable to harvest from various body areas including beard, chest, and extremities in hirsute individuals. Body hair characteristics such as thickness, length, and hair cycle may not completely match to that of the scalp hair. The techniques of harvesting body hairs are more time consuming, requiring higher degree of skill than regular scalp FUE. Body hair transplantation can be successfully used either alone or in combination with scalp hair in advanced grades of baldness, for improving the cosmetic appearance of hairlines and in scarring alopecia when there is paucity of donor scalp hair. Harvesting of body hairs opens up a new viable donor source for hair restoration surgeons, especially in cases of advanced Norwood grades five and above of androgenetic alopecia.

Use of the cellular model of body composition to describe changes in body water compartments after total fasting, very low calorie diet and low calorie diet in obese men.

Science.gov (United States)

Siervo, M; Faber, P; Gibney, E R; Lobley, G E; Elia, M; Stubbs, R J; Johnstone, A M

2010-05-01

The cellular model of body composition divides the body in body cell mass (BCM), extracellular solids and extracellular fluids. This model has been infrequently applied for the evaluation of weight loss (WL) programmes. (1) To assess changes in body compartments in obese men undergoing fasting, very low calorie diet (VLCD) and low calorie diet (LCD); (2) to evaluate two cellular models for the determination of changes in BCM, fat mass (FM) and body fluids. Three groups of six, obese men participated in a total fast (F) for 6 days, a VLCD (2.5 MJ per day) for 3 weeks or an LCD (5.2 MJ per day) for 6 weeks. Body composition was measured at baseline and after small ( approximately 5%) and moderate ( approximately 10%) WL. FM was measured using a four-compartment model. Total body water (TBW) and extracellular water (ECW) were, respectively, measured by deuterium and sodium bromide dilution and intracellular water (ICW) calculated by difference. Two cellular models were used to measure BCM, FM and body fluids distribution. After about 5%WL changes in TBW were F=-3.2+/-1.2 kg (Pfasting (+1.5+/-3.1 kg, n.s.), decreased during the VLCD (-2.0+/-1.5 kg, Pfasting (-4.7+/-3.9 kg, Pfasting group and it was directly associated with changes in ICW. After a 6-day period of fasting we observed more ICW losses and less fat mobilization compared with VLCD and LCD. The cellular model of body composition is suitable for the characterization of changes in body fluids distribution during WL.