The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...
Dupuis, D. J.; Sun, Ying; Wang, Huixia Judy
Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change
Z. Z. Hu
Full Text Available In this paper, we use the in-house Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD flow code AMAZON-SC as a numerical wave tank (NWT to study wave loading on a wave energy converter (WEC device in heave motion. This is a surface-capturing method for two fluid flows that treats the free surface as contact surface in the density field that is captured automatically without special provision. A time-accurate artificial compressibility method and high resolution Godunov-type scheme are employed in both fluid regions (air/water. The Cartesian cut cell method can provide a boundary-fitted mesh for a complex geometry with no requirement to re-mesh globally or even locally for moving geometry, requiring only changes to cut cell data at the body contour. Extreme wave boundary conditions are prescribed in an empty NWT and compared with physical experiments prior to calculations of extreme waves acting on a floating Bobber-type device. The validation work also includes the wave force on a fixed cylinder compared with theoretical and experimental data under regular waves. Results include free surface elevations, vertical displacement of the float, induced vertical velocity and heave force for a typical Bobber geometry with a hemispherical base under extreme wave conditions.
Finkel, J. M.; Katz, J. I.
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or major portions of continents) during periods mostly from the mid-20th Century to the present. This statistic was defined in our earlier work on temperature records in the 48 contiguous United States. In contrast to this earlier work, we find that in every region except North America all-time high records were set at a rate significantly (at least $3\\sigma$) higher than in the null hypothesis of a stationary climate. Except in Antarctica, all-time low records were set at a rate significantly lower than in the null hypothesis. In Europe, North Africa and North Asia the rate of setting new all-time highs increased suddenly in the 1990's, suggesting a change in regional climate regime; in most other regions there was a steadier increase.
Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)
A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.
Dupuis, D. J.
Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change-points in the tail of multiple time series data. In addition, we adapt existing tail change-point detection methods to our specific problem and conduct a thorough comparison of different methods in terms of performance on the estimation of change-points and computational time. We also examine three locations on the U.S. northeast coast and demonstrate that the methods are useful for identifying changes in seasonally extreme warm temperatures.
reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...
... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003998.htm Aging changes in body shape To use the sharing ... and both sexes. Height loss is related to aging changes in the bones, muscles, and joints. People ...
Collar, David C; Schulte, James A; Losos, Jonathan B
Many features of species' biology, including life history, physiology, morphology, and ecology are tightly linked to body size. Investigation into the causes of size divergence is therefore critical to understanding the factors shaping phenotypic diversity within clades. In this study, we examined size evolution in monitor lizards (Varanus), a clade that includes the largest extant lizard species, the Komodo dragon (V. komodoensis), as well as diminutive species that are nearly four orders of magnitude smaller in adult body mass. We demonstrate that the remarkable body size disparity of this clade is a consequence of different selective demands imposed by three major habitat use patterns-arboreality, terrestriality, and rock-dwelling. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships and ancestral habitat use and applied model selection to determine that the best-fitting evolutionary models for species' adult size are those that infer oppositely directed adaptive evolution associated with terrestriality and rock-dwelling, with terrestrial lineages evolving extremely large size and rock-dwellers becoming very small. We also show that habitat use affects the evolution of several ecologically important morphological traits independently of body size divergence. These results suggest that habitat use exerts a strong, multidimensional influence on the evolution of morphological size and shape disparity in monitor lizards. © 2011 The Author(s).
Hu, Zheng Zheng; Causon, Derek; Mingham, Clive; Qiang, Ling
A task of the EPSRC funded research project 'Extreme Wave loading on Offshore Wave Energy Devices: a Hierarchical Team Approach' is to investigate the survivability of two wave energy converter (WEC) devices Pelamis and the Manchester Bobber using different CFD approaches. Both devices float on the water surface, generating the electricity from the motion of the waves. In this paper, we describe developments of the AMAZON-SC 3D numerical wave tank (NWT) to study extreme wave loading of a fixed or floating (in Heave motion) structure. The extreme wave formulation as an inlet condition is due to Dalzell (1999) and Ning et. al. (2009) in which a first or second-order Stokes focused wave can be prescribed. The AMAZON-SC 3D code (see e.g. Hu et al. (2009)) uses a cell centred finite volume method of the Godunov-type for the space discretization of the Euler and Navier Stokes equations. The computational domain includes both air and water regions with the air/water boundary captured as a discontinuity in the density field thereby admitting the break up and recombination of the free surface. Temporal discretisation uses the artificial compressibility method and a dual time stepping strategy to maintain a divergence free velocity field. Cartesian cut cells are used to provide a fully boundary-fitted gridding capability on an regular background Cartesian grid. Solid objects are cut out of the background mesh leaving a set of irregularly shaped cells fitted to the boundary. The advantages of the cut cell approach have been outlined previously by Causon et al. (2000, 2001) including its flexibility for dealing with complex geometries whether stationary or in relative motion. The field grid does not need to be recomputed globally or even locally for moving body cases; all that is necessary is to update the local cut cell data at the body contour for as long as the motion continues. The handing of numerical wave paddles and device motion in a NWT is therefore straightforward
Boucek, Ross E; Rehage, Jennifer S
The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D
Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.
Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.
It's a known fact that climate change will bring about increases in the occurrence of weather extreme events such as elevated temperature, drought, and floods; most especially in areas classified as hotspots to climate change – such as northwest Nigeria. This study investigates trends in extreme temperature and ...
Brunnabend, S. E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, Michael; Bal, Henri E.; Seinstra, Frank J.; van Werkhoven, Ben; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, Maarten
An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and
Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P
Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)
Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.
Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such
Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.
of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...
Chen, Fang; Zhang, Wei; Liang, Yu
Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are lar...
Full Text Available Extreme altitude can induce a range of cellular and systemic responses. Although it is known that hypoxia underlies the major changes and that the physiological responses include hemodynamic changes and erythropoiesis, the molecular mechanisms and signaling pathways mediating such changes are largely unknown. To obtain a more complete picture of the transcriptional regulatory landscape and networks involved in extreme altitude response, we followed four climbers on an expedition up Mount Xixiabangma (8,012 m, and collected blood samples at four stages during the climb for mRNA and miRNA expression assays. By analyzing dynamic changes of gene networks in response to extreme altitudes, we uncovered a highly modular network with 7 modules of various functions that changed in response to extreme altitudes. The erythrocyte differentiation module is the most prominently up-regulated, reflecting increased erythrocyte differentiation from hematopoietic stem cells, probably at the expense of differentiation into other cell lineages. These changes are accompanied by coordinated down-regulation of general translation. Network topology and flow analyses also uncovered regulators known to modulate hypoxia responses and erythrocyte development, as well as unknown regulators, such as the OCT4 gene, an important regulator in stem cells and assumed to only function in stem cells. We predicted computationally and validated experimentally that increased OCT4 expression at extreme altitude can directly elevate the expression of hemoglobin genes. Our approach established a new framework for analyzing the transcriptional regulatory network from a very limited number of samples.
Ahituv, Nadav; Kavaslar, Nihan; Schackwitz, Wendy; Ustaszewski,Anna; Martin, Joes; Hebert, Sybil; Doelle, Heather; Ersoy, Baran; Kryukov, Gregory; Schmidt, Steffen; Yosef, Nir; Ruppin, Eytan; Sharan,Roded; Vaisse, Christian; Sunyaev, Shamil; Dent, Robert; Cohen, Jonathan; McPherson, Ruth; Pennacchio, Len A.
Body weight is a quantitative trait with significantheritability in humans. To identify potential genetic contributors tothis phenotype, we resequenced the coding exons and splice junctions of58 genes in 379 obese and 378 lean individuals. Our 96Mb survey included21 genes associated with monogenic forms of obesity in humans or mice, aswell as 37 genes that function in body weight-related pathways. We foundthat the monogenic obesity-associated gene group was enriched for rarenonsynonymous variants unique to the obese (n=46) versus lean (n=26)populations. Computational analysis further predicted a significantlygreater fraction of deleterious variants within the obese cohort.Consistent with the complex inheritance of body weight, we did notobserve obvious familial segregation in the majority of the 28 availablekindreds. Taken together, these data suggest that multiple rare alleleswith variable penetrance contribute to obesity in the population andprovide a deep medical sequencing based approach to detectthem.
Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, G.; Casari, Marco
Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occurs after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a
Ghidoni, Riccardo; Calzolari, Giacomo; Casari, Marco
Understanding how to sustain cooperation in the climate change global dilemma is crucial to mitigate its harmful consequences. Damages from climate change typically occur after long delays and can take the form of more frequent realizations of extreme and random events. These features generate a
Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery
In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol
Thrall, D.E.; Page, R.L.
The author previously documented during whole body hyperthermia in dogs using a radiant heating device that temperature at superficial sites, including tibial bone marrow, falls below systemic arterial temperature during the plateau phase of heating. This may be due to direct heat loss to the environment. Sites where temperature is lower than systemic arterial temperature during the plateau phase may become sanctuary sites where tumor deposits are spared because they do not receive the prescribed thermal dose. In an attempt to decrease temperature nonuniformity and increase thermal dose delivered to such superficial sites, extremity insulation has been employed during whole body hyperthermia in dogs. The author measured temperature at cutaneous and subcutaneous sites and within tibial bone marrow in insulated and noninsulated extremities of dogs undergoing whole body hyperthermia in the radiant heating device. The author found that extremity insulation is effective in reducing extremity temperature nonuniformity. Specific results are presented. Extremity insulation may be necessary during whole body hyperthermia to assure that extremity tumor deposits receive a thermal dose similar to that prescribed for the entire body
Shahrjerdi, Davood; Bedell, Stephen W
In recent years, flexible devices based on nanoscale materials and structures have begun to emerge, exploiting semiconductor nanowires, graphene, and carbon nanotubes. This is primarily to circumvent the existing shortcomings of the conventional flexible electronics based on organic and amorphous semiconductors. The aim of this new class of flexible nanoelectronics is to attain high-performance devices with increased packing density. However, highly integrated flexible circuits with nanoscale transistors have not yet been demonstrated. Here, we show nanoscale flexible circuits on 60 Å thick silicon, including functional ring oscillators and memory cells. The 100-stage ring oscillators exhibit the stage delay of ~16 ps at a power supply voltage of 0.9 V, the best reported for any flexible circuits to date. The mechanical flexibility is achieved by employing the controlled spalling technology, enabling the large-area transfer of the ultrathin body silicon devices to a plastic substrate at room temperature. These results provide a simple and cost-effective pathway to enable ultralight flexible nanoelectronics with unprecedented level of system complexity based on mainstream silicon technology.
Suzuki, Masataka; Hasegawa, Makiko; Wu, Chung-Lei; Mimaru, Osamu
Using computed tomography image, the body composition on the lower extremity were observed in 24 adult human (10 male, 14 female). CT image were taken at proximal section (upper a third on thigh), distal section (lower a third on thigh) and leg section (upper a third on leg), and the quantities determind from the images included the area of total cross-section, muscle, subcutaneous fat, connective tissue and bone in the each cross-section. The ratios of the each components to total area were surveyed. The age related changes and the differences between the three body types, which were defined by Rohrer's index, were discussed in both sexes. The following results were obtained. 1. The ratio of the each component to total sectional area in the three section levels was the highest in the muscle following in order of subcutaneous fat, connective tissue and bone in man generally. On the other hand, in female, the subcutaneous fat was higher than the muscle in the proximal section by A and C body types, but the muscle was higher than the subcutaneous fat by D body type in this section and by all body types in distal and leg sections. 2. Concerning the correlationship between the ratios of the components in the section and Rohrer's index or ages, they were in positive relation on the ratios of the subcutaneous fat and the connective tissue, and were in negative relation on the ratio of the muscle in the femoral section by male. 3. Decreasing with age of muscular area were found at under 50 ages in extensor, at 50 age in adductor and at about 60 ages in flexor on the proximal section, and at 50 age in extensor, after 55 age in adductor and at about 60 age in flexor on the distal section in man respectively. On the leg section, the decreasing tendency with ages were predominant in flexor by man and were found after 50 age by female too. (author)
Han, Seung-Yong; Brewis, Alexandra A; SturtzSreetharan, Cindi
For an industrialized nation, obesity rates in South Korea are extremely low. Yet, reflecting an extremely fat-averse, thin-positive society, efforts to lose weight are now reportedly very common. Since the 1980s, South Korea has experienced an increasingly flexible and insecure labor market which was exacerbated by the 1997 economic recession. In this social and economic setting, body shape and weight status, as human capital, may have gained significant bargaining power in the labor market. Consequently, we propose that Koreans, particularly those who are employed in "stable" jobs (i.e., non-manual and regular jobs), would increasingly engage in intense weight management and reduction activities even when not technically overweight or obese as a means to job security and upward mobility. Using nationally-representative data from the Korean Nutrition and Health Examination Survey (KNHANES), we identify the changing role of weight concerns versus actual body weight in predicting South Korean efforts to lose weight between 2001 (KNHANES-phase 1) and 2007-2009 (phase 4). The patterns were examined by occupation type (manual and non-manual jobs) and status (regular and non-regular jobs). Oaxaca decomposition analysis supported that people's perception of being "fat," rather than actual weight status, was crucial to explaining accelerated weight management efforts in South Korea over the decade (coef. = 0.062 and p-value < .0001 for male with regular work; coef. = 0.031 and p-value = .002 for female with regular work). Occupation status, rather than employment in itself, mattered. Job stability predicted increased effort; the pattern of change through time suggests efforts to invest high levels of effort in appearance positively impacts both employment opportunity and stability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.
An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)
Full Text Available Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95, the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5, high-temperature days (HTD and low-temperature days (LTD. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are used in the research. The results show that: (1 Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax and minimum temperature (Tmin as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2 By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099, both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990 in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3 The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4 The intensity of the warm (cold extremes would increase (decrease significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5 by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the
Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.
During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in
Yan, Eugene [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Jared, Alissa [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mahat, Vinod [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Picel, Mark [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Verner, Duane [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wall, Thomas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Moges, Edom M. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Demissie, Yonas K. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States); Pierce, Julia [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
The quantification of extreme precipitation events is vitally important for designing and engineering water and flood sensitive infrastructure. Since this kind of infrastructure is usually built to last much longer than 10, 50, or even 100 years, there is great need for statistically sound estimates of the intensity of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year rainstorms and associated floods. The recent assessment indicated that the intensity of the most extreme precipitation events (or the heaviest 1% of all daily events) have increased in every region of the contiguous states since the 1950s (Melillo et al. 2014). The maximum change in precipitation intensity of extreme events occurred in the northeast region reaching 71%. The precipitation extremes can be characterized using intensity-duration-frequency analysis (IDF). However, the current IDFs in this region were developed around the assumption that climate condition remains stationary over the next 50 or 100 years. To better characterize the potential flood risk, this project will (1) develop precipitation IDFs on the basis of both historical observations and future climate projections from dynamic downscaling with Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) regional climate model and (2) develop runoff IDFs using precipitation IDFs for the Casco Bay Watershed. IDF development also considers non-stationary distribution models and snowmelt effects that are not incorporated in the current IDFs.
Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia
of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...
Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is
Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.
Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.
Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.
Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012). This presentation provides an overview of past and projected changes in hot extremes on the global and regional scale, and of the respective drivers and feedbacks responsible for their occurrence. In particular, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks have been identified as major drivers for hot extremes (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010; Hirschi et al. 2011). Recently, a global study (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012) has shown that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed, with for instance large hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Further results indicate that this relationship could be better used in the context of seasonal forecasting, allowing an early warning of impending hot summers (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Orth and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, the role of soil moisture-climate feedbacks for climate projections will also be discussed (e.g. Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2013). Finally, we will address the relevance of the identified feedbacks in the context of urban climate, as well as potential relevant impacts of other land-climate interactions (e.g. from modifications in surface albedo). References: Hirschi, M., et al., 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Orth, R. and S.I. Seneviratne
Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel
In spite of a relatively dry mean climate, the Mediterranean regions in Southern France use to experience heavy rainfalls over short durations - typically a few minutes to one day. Here we examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area, where many long homogeneous time-series are available. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series, according to their statistical dependence. This procedure substantially enhances the signal-to-noise ratio. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at +22% (+7% to +39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequencies for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200mm in one day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this risk ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events during the last decades. We argue that the diagnosed trends can hardly be explained without invoking the human influence on climate.
The thesis consists of two coherent projects. The first project presents the results of evaluating salinity tolerance in barley using growth curve analysis where different growth trajectories are observed within barley families. The study of salinity tolerance in plants is crucial to understanding plant growth and productivity. Because fully-automated smarthouses with conveyor systems allow non-destructive and high-throughput phenotyping of large number of plants, it is now possible to apply advanced statistical tools to analyze daily measurements and to study salinity tolerance. To compare different growth patterns of barley variates, we use functional data analysis techniques to analyze the daily projected shoot areas. In particular, we apply the curve registration method to align all the curves from the same barley family in order to summarize the family-wise features. We also illustrate how to use statistical modeling to account for spatial variation in microclimate in smarthouses and for temporal variation across runs, which is crucial for identifying traits of the barley variates. In our analysis, we show that the concentrations of sodium and potassium in leaves are negatively correlated, and their interactions are associated with the degree of salinity tolerance. The second project studies change-points detection methods in extremes when multiple time series data are available. Motived by the scientific question of whether the chances to experience extreme weather are different in different seasons of a year, we develop a change-points detection model to study changes in extremes or in the tail of a distribution. Most of existing models identify seasons from multiple yearly time series assuming a season or a change-point location remains exactly the same across years. In this work, we propose a random effect model that allows the change-point to vary from year to year, following a given distribution. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are developed
Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.
Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.
Anttila-Hughes, J. K.
A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.
Coffel, E.; Horton, R.
Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.
Diffenbaugh, N. S.
Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.
Teets, Nicholas M.; Peyton, Justin T.; Colinet, Herve; Renault, David; Kelley, Joanna L.; Kawarasaki, Yuta; Lee, Richard E.; Denlinger, David L.
Among terrestrial organisms, arthropods are especially susceptible to dehydration, given their small body size and high surface area to volume ratio. This challenge is particularly acute for polar arthropods that face near-constant desiccating conditions, as water is frozen and thus unavailable for much of the year. The molecular mechanisms that govern extreme dehydration tolerance in insects remain largely undefined. In this study, we used RNA sequencing to quantify transcriptional mechanisms of extreme dehydration tolerance in the Antarctic midge, Belgica antarctica, the world’s southernmost insect and only insect endemic to Antarctica. Larvae of B. antarctica are remarkably tolerant of dehydration, surviving losses up to 70% of their body water. Gene expression changes in response to dehydration indicated up-regulation of cellular recycling pathways including the ubiquitin-mediated proteasome and autophagy, with concurrent down-regulation of genes involved in general metabolism and ATP production. Metabolomics results revealed shifts in metabolite pools that correlated closely with changes in gene expression, indicating that coordinated changes in gene expression and metabolism are a critical component of the dehydration response. Finally, using comparative genomics, we compared our gene expression results with a transcriptomic dataset for the Arctic collembolan, Megaphorura arctica. Although B. antarctica and M. arctica are adapted to similar environments, our analysis indicated very little overlap in expression profiles between these two arthropods. Whereas several orthologous genes showed similar expression patterns, transcriptional changes were largely species specific, indicating these polar arthropods have developed distinct transcriptional mechanisms to cope with similar desiccating conditions. PMID:23197828
P. T. Nastos
Full Text Available The changes in daily precipitation totals in Greece, during the 45-year period (1957–2001 are examined. The precipitation datasets concern daily totals recorded at 21 surface meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed over the Greek region. First and foremost, the application of Factor Analysis resulted in grouping the meteorological stations with similar variation in time. The main sub groups represent the northern, southern, western, eastern and central regions of Greece with common precipitation characteristics. For representative stations of the extracted sub groups we estimated the trends and the time variability for the number of days (% exceeding 30 mm (equal to the 95% percentile of daily precipitation for eastern and western regions and equal to the 97.5% percentile for the rest of the country and 50 mm which is the threshold for very extreme and rare events. Furthermore, the scale and shape parameters of the well fitted gamma distribution to the daily precipitation data with respect to the whole examined period and to the 10-year sub periods reveal the changes in the intensity of the precipitation.
Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.
Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights
Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.
Yang, Huan; Casals, Marc
We study the dynamics of a hierarchical three-body system in the general relativistic regime: an extreme mass-ratio inner binary under the tidal influence of an external body. The inner binary consists of a central Schwarzschild black hole and a test body moving around it. We discuss three types of tidal effects on the orbit of the test body. First, the angular momentum of the inner binary precesses around the angular momentum of the outer binary. Second, the tidal field drives a "transient resonance" when the radial and azimuthal frequencies are commensurable. In contrast with resonances driven by the gravitational self-force, this tidal-driven resonance may boost the orbital angular momentum and eccentricity (a relativistic version of the Kozai-Lidov effect). Finally, for an orbit-dynamical effect during the nonresonant phase, we calculate the correction to the innermost stable circular (mean) orbit due to the tidal interaction. Hierarchical three-body systems are potential sources for future space-based gravitational wave missions, and the tidal effects that we find could contribute significantly to their waveform.
Full Text Available Based on the traditional machine vision recognition technology and traditional artificial neural networks about body movement trajectory, this paper finds out the shortcomings of the traditional recognition technology. By combining the invariant moments of the three-dimensional motion history image (computed as the eigenvector of body movements and the extreme learning machine (constructed as the classification artificial neural network of body movements, the paper applies the method to the machine vision of the body movement trajectory. In detail, the paper gives a detailed introduction about the algorithm and realization scheme of the body movement trajectory recognition based on the three-dimensional motion history image and the extreme learning machine. Finally, by comparing with the results of the recognition experiments, it attempts to verify that the method of body movement trajectory recognition technology based on the three-dimensional motion history image and extreme learning machine has a more accurate recognition rate and better robustness.
Elfekey, Hatem; Bastawrous, Hany Ayad; Okamoto, Shogo
Touch sensing is a fundamental approach in human-to-machine interfaces, and is currently under widespread use. Many current applications use active touch sensing technologies. Passive touch sensing technologies are, however, more adequate to implement low power or energy harvesting touch sensing interfaces. This paper presents a passive touch sensing technique based on the fact that the human body is affected by the surrounding extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields, such as those of AC power lines. These external ELF fields induce electric potentials on the human body-because human tissues exhibit some conductivity at these frequencies-resulting in what is called AC hum. We therefore propose a passive touch sensing system that detects this hum noise when a human touch occurs, thus distinguishing between touch and non-touch events. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is validated by designing and implementing a flexible touch sensing keyboard.
Panchenko, O A; Onishchenko, V O; Liakh, Iu Ie
The dynamics of changes in the parameters of the surface and core body temperature under the systematic impact of ultra-low temperature is described in this article. As a source of ultra-low temperature was used (Cryo Therapy Chamber) Zimmer Medizin Systeme firm Zimmer Electromedizin (Germany) (-110 degrees C). Surface and internal body temperature was measured by infrared thermometer immediately before visiting cryochamber and immediately after exiting. In the study conducted 47,464 measurements of body temperature. It was established that the internal temperature of the human body under the influence of ultra-low temperatures in the proposed mode of exposure remains constant, and the surface temperature of the body reduces by an average of 11.57 degrees C. The time frame stabilization of adaptive processes of thermoregulation under the systematic impact of ultra-low temperature was defined in the study.
Stein, Koen; Csiki, Zoltan; Rogers, Kristina Curry; Weishampel, David B; Redelstorff, Ragna; Carballido, Jose L; Sander, P Martin
Sauropods were the largest terrestrial tetrapods (>10(5) kg) in Earth's history and grew at rates that rival those of extant mammals. Magyarosaurus dacus, a titanosaurian sauropod from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) of Romania, is known exclusively from small individuals (dwarfism (phyletic nanism) in dinosaurs, but a recent study suggested that the small Romanian titanosaurs actually represent juveniles of a larger-bodied taxon. Here we present strong histological evidence that M. dacus was indeed a dwarf (phyletic nanoid). Bone histological analysis of an ontogenetic series of Magyarosaurus limb bones indicates that even the smallest Magyarosaurus specimens exhibit a bone microstructure identical to fully mature or old individuals of other sauropod taxa. Comparison of histologies with large-bodied sauropods suggests that Magyarosaurus had an extremely reduced growth rate, but had retained high basal metabolic rates typical for sauropods. The uniquely decreased growth rate and diminutive body size in Magyarosaurus were adaptations to life on a Cretaceous island and show that sauropod dinosaurs were not exempt from general ecological principles limiting body size.
Seimon, R V; Espinoza, D; Finer, N
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined the rela......BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Sibutramine Cardiovascular OUTcomes (SCOUT) trial showed a significantly increased relative risk of nonfatal cardiovascular events, but not mortality, in overweight and obese subjects receiving long-term sibutramine treatment with diet and exercise. We examined...... the relationship between early changes (both increases and decreases) in pulse rate, and the impact of these changes on subsequent cardiovascular outcome events in both the placebo and sibutramine groups. SUBJECTS/METHODS: 9804 males and females, aged ⩾55 years, with a body mass index of 27-45 kg m(-)(2) were...... included in this current subanalysis of the SCOUT trial. Subjects were required to have a history of cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, to assess cardiovascular outcomes. The primary outcome event (POE) was a composite of nonfatal myocardial...
Mäkinen, Marja-Tellervo; Pesonen, Anne; Jousela, Irma; Päivärinta, Janne; Poikajärvi, Satu; Albäck, Anders; Salminen, Ulla-Stina; Pesonen, Eero
The aim of this study was to compare deep body temperature obtained using a novel noninvasive continuous zero-heat-flux temperature measurement system with core temperatures obtained using conventional methods. A prospective, observational study. Operating room of a university hospital. The study comprised 15 patients undergoing vascular surgery of the lower extremities and 15 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Zero-heat-flux thermometry on the forehead and standard core temperature measurements. Body temperature was measured using a new thermometry system (SpotOn; 3M, St. Paul, MN) on the forehead and with conventional methods in the esophagus during vascular surgery (n = 15), and in the nasopharynx and pulmonary artery during cardiac surgery (n = 15). The agreement between SpotOn and the conventional methods was assessed using the Bland-Altman random-effects approach for repeated measures. The mean difference between SpotOn and the esophageal temperature during vascular surgery was+0.08°C (95% limit of agreement -0.25 to+0.40°C). During cardiac surgery, during off CPB, the mean difference between SpotOn and the pulmonary arterial temperature was -0.05°C (95% limits of agreement -0.56 to+0.47°C). Throughout cardiac surgery (on and off CPB), the mean difference between SpotOn and the nasopharyngeal temperature was -0.12°C (95% limits of agreement -0.94 to+0.71°C). Poor agreement between the SpotOn and nasopharyngeal temperatures was detected in hypothermia below approximately 32°C. According to this preliminary study, the deep body temperature measured using the zero-heat-flux system was in good agreement with standard core temperatures during lower extremity vascular and cardiac surgery. However, agreement was questionable during hypothermia below 32°C. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Veysseire, Jean-Michel; Gouget, Viviane; Neppel, Luc; Tramblay, Yves; Carreau, Julie
This paper focuses a synthesis of the works led within the framework of the French project ANR/Extraflo on the evolution of the daily (and infra daily) extreme rainfall in France. An important dataset of more than 900 series was used. It was shown that a majority of series presented a not significant upward trend in particular in Mediterranean area, in relation with various recent exceptional extreme events. An interesting way to characterize this evolution consists in identifying climatic co-variables associated to heavy rainfall events (weather patterns, average temperatures, flow of humidity) and in taking into account them with a non stationary POT model. The application of this method with climatic projections under scenario A2 from IPCC could lead to a possible increase on extreme precipitation quantiles on the horizon 2070. (authors)
Full Text Available Nordic walking and water aerobics are very popular forms of physical activity in the elderly population. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of regular health training on the venous blood flow in lower extremities and body composition in women over 50 years old. Twenty-four women of mean age 57.9 (± 3.43 years, randomly divided into three groups (Nordic walking, water aerobics, and non-training, participated in the study. The training lasted 8 weeks, with one-hour sessions twice a week. Dietary habits were not changed. Before and after training vein refilling time and the function of the venous pump of the lower extremities were measured by photoplethysmography. Body composition was determined by bioelectrical impedance. Eight weeks of Nordic walking training improved the venous blood flow in lower extremities and normalized body composition in the direction of reducing chronic venous disorder risk factors. The average values of the refilling time variable (p = 0.04, p = 0.02, respectively decreased in both the right and the left leg. After training a statistically significant increase in the venous pump function index was found only in the right leg (p = 0.04. A significant increase in fat-free mass, body cell mass and total body water was observed (p = 0.01, whereas body mass, the body mass index, and body fat decreased (p < 0.03. With regard to water aerobic training, no similar changes in the functions of the venous system or body composition were observed.
Wijngaard, René R; Lutz, Arthur F; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B; Immerzeel, Walter W
Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.
René R Wijngaard
Full Text Available Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region.
Lipowska, Małgorzata; Lipowski, Mariusz
Body weight and age constitute main determinants of body image in women. We analyzed the role of narcissism as a moderator of body image in young women representing various extremes of body weight. The study included 325 women between 18 and 35 years, qualified into three BMI categories: obese women (BMI > 30.0, n = 72), severely underweight women who did not satisfy the remaining criteria of anorexia (BMI 22.7, n = 168). Satisfaction with body image was determined with Multidimensional Body-Self Relations Questionnaire and Body Esteem Scale, while narcissism was measured with Narcissistic Personality Inventory. We revealed that narcissism has significant impact on the body image of women who are extremely underweight or obese. Vanity and Leadership were narcissism dimensions which played significant role in slim women, as compared to Vanity and Self-Sufficiency in obese women. The role of narcissism as a modulator of self-satisfaction with one's body varies depending on BMI level: extremely underweight women and obese individuals constitute groups in which narcissism has the strongest impact on the self-satisfaction with body.
García-Balboa, C; Baselga-Cervera, B; García-Sanchez, A; Igual, J M; Lopez-Rodas, V; Costas, E
Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These "lucky mutants" could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.
Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.
Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.
This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...
Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson
Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...
García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Salamanca (IRNASA-CSIC), PO Box 257, 37071 Salamanca (Spain); Lopez-Rodas, V. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Costas, E., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)
Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change.
García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B.; García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M.; Lopez-Rodas, V.; Costas, E.
Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change
Booij, Martijn J.
Extreme daily precipitation for the current and changed climate at appropriate spatial scales is assessed. This is done in the context of the impact of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse in Western Europe. The objective is achieved by determining and comparing extreme precipitation from
Hamada, Taku; Hayashi, Tatsuya; Kimura, Tetsuya; Nakao, Kazuwa; Moritani, Toshio
Our laboratory has recently demonstrated that low-frequency electrical stimulation (ES) of quadriceps muscles alone significantly enhanced glucose disposal rate (GDR) during euglycemic clamp (Hamada T, Sasaki H, Hayashi T, Moritani T, and Nakao K. J Appl Physiol 94: 2107-2112, 2003). The present study is further follow-up to examine the acute metabolic effects of ES to lower extremities compared with voluntary cycle exercise (VE) at identical intensity. In eight male subjects lying in the supine position, both lower leg (tibialis anterior and triceps surae) and thigh (quadriceps and hamstrings) muscles were sequentially stimulated to cocontract in an isometric manner at 20 Hz with a 1-s on-off duty cycle for 20 min. Despite small elevation of oxygen uptake by 7.3 +/- 0.3 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1) during ES, the blood lactate concentration was significantly increased by 3.2 +/- 0.3 mmol/l in initial period (5 min) after the onset of the ES (P increased anaerobic glycolysis by ES. Furthermore, whole body glucose uptake determined by GDR during euglycemic clamp demonstrated a significant increase during and after the cessation of ES for at least 90 min (P energy consumption, carbohydrate oxidation, and whole body glucose uptake at low intensity of exercise. Percutaneous ES may become a therapeutic utility to enhance glucose metabolism in humans.
Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...
Rasmussen, Dorte Malig; Hansen, Helle Ploug; Elverdam, Beth
Psychosocial cancer research illustrates how women treated for breast cancer experience physical changes in their bodies and the way they perceive, that, others see their body. But how patients with other types of cancer have experienced changes in their bodies and how this affects their relationship with others is less researched. To explore how cancer survivors with different types of cancer and cancer treatment, experience and handle their changed body, especially when meeting others, and how this influences their everyday life of survivorship, i.e. long after treatment has been completed. Participant observation at a Cancer Rehabilitation Centre (CRC). Of the observed participants 23 were selected and interviewed twice. Many participants had a changed body due to the cancer and its treatment. When the cancer survivors meet others they experience that their changed body means that they are avoided, looked at in specific ways, or greeted with a specific compliment. The verbal and nonverbal language that the cancer survivors are met with indicates the existence of a specific discursive aesthetic in relation to the disease and the changed body. This discursive aesthetic represents a silence and secrecy about cancer, which makes it impossible for survivors to talk about their experiences with cancer and a changed body. The changed body not only represents the physical sign of cancer, it also represents the social presence and representation of cancer. The analysis gives an insight into general questions of meaning related to the changed body in late modernity. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Yamamoto, Nana; Yamamoto, Takumi; Hayashi, Nobuko; Hayashi, Akitatsu; Iida, Takuya; Koshima, Isao
Volumetry, measurement of extremity volume, is a commonly used method for upper extremity lymphedema (UEL) evaluation. However, comparison between different patients with different physiques is difficult with volumetry, because body-type difference greatly affects arm volume. Seventy arms of 35 participants who had no history of arm edema or breast cancer were evaluated. Arm volume was calculated using a summed truncated cone model, and UEL index was calculated using circumferences and body mass index (BMI). Examinees' BMI was classified into 3 groups, namely, low BMI (BMI, 25 kg/m). Arm volume and UEL index were compared with corresponding BMI groups. Mean (SD) arm volume was 1090.9 (205.5) mL, and UEL index 96.9 (5.6). There were significant differences in arm volume between BMI groups [low BMI vs middle BMI vs high BMI, 945.2 (107.4) vs 1045.2 (87.5) vs 1443.1 (244.4) mL, P 0.5]. Arm volume significantly increased with increase of BMI, whereas UEL index stayed constant regardless of BMI. Upper extremity lymphedema index would allow better body-type corrected arm volume evaluation compared with arm volumetry.
Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.
Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)
Bulygina, O N; Razuvaev, V N; Korshunova, N N; Groisman, P Ya
Daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and atmospheric precipitation data from 857 stations are used to analyze variations in the space-time distribution of extreme temperatures and precipitation across Russia during the past six decades. The seasonal numbers of days (N) when daily air temperatures (diurnal temperature range, precipitation) were higher or lower than selected thresholds are used as indices of climatic extremes. Linear trends in N are calculated for each station for the time period of interest. The seasonal numbers of days (for each season) with maximum temperatures higher than the 95th percentile have increased over most of Russia, with minimum temperatures lower than the 5th percentile having decreased. A tendency for the decrease in the number of days with abnormally high diurnal temperature range is observed over most of Russia. In individual regions of Russia, however, a tendency for an increasing number of days with a large diurnal amplitude is found. The largest tendency for increasing number of days with heavy precipitation is observed in winter in Western Siberia and Yakutia
Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan
projections for estimation of changes in extreme rainfall characteristics. Climate model projections from 20 regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES data archive were used in the analysis. Two different estimation methods were applied, using, respectively, a direct estimation of the changes...... in the extreme value statistics of the RCM data, and application of a stochastic weather generator fitted to the changes in rainfall characteristics from the RCM data. The results show a large variability in the projected changes in extreme precipitation between the different RCMs and the two estimation methods...
John E. Hay
Full Text Available This Special Issue documents not only the more recent progress made in detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, but also in projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales. It also deals with the impacts and other consequences and implications of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events. Impact assessments using both dynamical downscaling and statistical modelling for two tropical cyclones are reported, as well as for storm surge and extreme wave changes. The Special Issue concludes with a consideration of some policy implications and practical applications arising from our relatively robust understanding of how the build up of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects weather and climate extremes.
Full Text Available Melanization reflects not only body color variation but also environmental plasticity. It is a strategy that helps insects adapt to environmental change. Different color morphs may have distinct life history traits, e.g., development time, growth rate, and body weight. The green slender planthopper Saccharosydne procerus (Matsumura is the main pest of water bamboo (Zizania latifolia. This insect has two color morphs. The present study explored the influence of photoperiod and its interaction with temperature in nymph stage on adult melanism. Additionally, the longevity, fecundity, mating rate, and hatching rate of S. procerus were examined to determine whether the fitness of the insect was influenced by melanism under different temperature and photoperiod. The results showed that a greater number of melanic morphs occurred if the photoperiod was extremely long. A two-factor ANOVA showed that temperature and photoperiod both have a significant influence on melanism. The percentages of variation explained by these factors were 45.53% and 48.71%, respectively. Moreover, melanic morphs had greater advantages than non-melanic morphs under an environmental regime of high temperatures and a long photoperiod, whereas non-melanic morphs were better adapted to cold temperatures and a short photoperiod. These results cannot be explained by the thermal melanism hypothesis. Thus, it may be unavailable to seek to explain melanism in terms of only one hypothesis.
Garrusi, Behshid; Garousi, Saeide; Baneshi, Mohammad R
Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD) of age was 31.06 (10.24) years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.
Full Text Available Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI, Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD of age was 31.06 (10.24 years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted.
Garrusi, Behshid; Garousi, Saeide; Baneshi, Mohammad R.
Background: Body concerns and its health consequences such as eating disorders and harmful body change activities are mentioned in Asian countries. This study evaluates factors contributing to body image/shape changes in an Iranian population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study we focused on four main body change activity (diet, exercise, substance use, and surgery) and their risk factors such as demographic variables, Body Mass Index (BMI), Media, Body-Esteem, Perceived Socio-cultural Pressure, Body dissatisfaction and, Self-Esteem. Approximately, 1,200 individuals between 14-55 years old participated in this study. We used a multistage sampling method. In each region, the first household was selected at random. The probability of outcomes was estimated from logistic models. Results: About 54.3% of respondents were females. The mean (SD) of age was 31.06 (10.24) years. Variables such as gender, age, BMI, use of media and socio cultural factors as, body dissatisfaction, body-esteem and pressure by relatives were the main factors that influenced body change methods. In particular we have seen that male are 53% less likely to follow surgical treatments, but 125% were more likely to use substances. Conclusions: Investigation of body concern and its health related problem should be assessed in cultural context. For effectiveness of interventional programs and reducing harmful body image/shape changes activities, socio-cultural background should be noted. PMID:24049621
Mleczek, Mirosław; Siwulski, Marek; Mikołajczak, Patrycja; Gąsecka, Monika; Sobieralski, Krzysztof; Szymańczyk, Mateusz; Goliński, Piotr
The aim of the study was to analyse levels of 17 trace elements and 5 major minerals in 11 Boletus badius fruiting bodies able to grow in extremely polluted waste (flotation tailings) and polluted soil in southern Poland. The presented data widen the limited literature data about the abilities of wild-growing mushroom species to grow on heavily contaminated substrates. Content of elements in waste, soil and mushrooms was analysed by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS) and cold vapour atomic absorption spectrometry (CVAAS - Hg). The industrial areas differed greatly as regards the content of elements in flotation tailings and soil; therefore differences in Ag, Ba, Cd, Co, Fe, Mo, Ni, Pb, Ca, K, Mg, Na and P accumulation in mushrooms were observed. The highest contents of elements in mushrooms were observed for: As, Al, Cu and Zn (86 ± 28, 549 ± 116, 341 ± 59 and 506 ± 40 mg kg(-1) dry matter, respectively). Calculated bioconcentration factor (BCF) values were higher than 1 for Al (15.1-16.9), Fe (10.6-24.4) and Hg (10.2-16.4) only. The main value of the presented results is the fact that one of the common wild-growing mushroom species was able to grow on flotation tailings containing over 22 g kg(-1) of As and, additionally, effective accumulation of other elements was observed. In view of the high content of the majority of analysed elements in fruiting bodies, edible mushrooms from such polluted areas are nonconsumable.
Jespersen, E.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Holst, R.; Klakk, H.; Heidemann, M.; Rexen, C.T.; Franz, C.; Wedderkopp, N.
Background Overweight youths are generally recognised as being at increased risk of sustaining lower extremity injuries in sports. However, previous studies are inconclusive and choices for measuring overweight are manifold. Objective To examine two different measures of overweight, body mass index
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna
On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution
G. J. van Oldenborgh
Full Text Available On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data. Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs, these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse
Park, HeeJin; Lee, So Yeon; Chung, Eun Chul; Rho, Myung Ho [Dept. of Radiology, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sung Moon; Son, Eun Seok [Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sun Joo [Dept. of Radiology, Inje University College of Medicine, Busan Paik Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of)
We described the technique of ultrasound (US)-guided percutaneous removal of the foreign bodies (FB) with hydro-dissection in the radiologic department and presented video files of several cases.Four patients referred to the radiology department for US evaluation and US-guided percutaneous removal of the FBs in the upper and lower extremities between November, 2006 and November, 2013 were included in this study. The procedures started with US evaluation for the exact location and shape of the FB. A 5 mm-sized skin incision was made at the site of the nearest point from the FB where no passing arteries or tendons were present. We adopted a hydro dissection technique to separate the FB from adjacent tissue using a 2% lidocaine solution. Injected anesthetics detached the FBs from surrounding tissue and thereby facilitated removal. After the tip of the mosquito forceps reached the FB, the wooden FBs were removed. The mean time required for the entire procedure was approximately 20 minutes. There were no significant complications during the US-guided removal or long-term complications after the procedure. All 4 FBs were successfully removed from the soft tissue under US guidance. Ultrasound-guided percutaneous removal of the FBs with hydro-dissection in the radiology department is a less invasive and safe method over surgical removal in the operating room. Additionally, the use of a guide wire and serial dilator may help minimize soft tissue injury and facilitate the introduction of forceps.
The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...
Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but
Jespersen, Eva; Verhagen, Evert; Holst, René
Overweight youths are generally recognised as being at increased risk of sustaining lower extremity injuries in sports. However, previous studies are inconclusive and choices for measuring overweight are manifold....
Juan MORENO, Anders Pape Møller
Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3: 375–389, 2011].
Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher
Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.
Lettenmaier, D. P.
On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.
Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.
A study was conducted in order to determine how serious implications regarding spillway design of small dams would result from changes in flood frequencies and magnitudes, because of changes in rainfall regime in turn brought on by climate change due to carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere. The region selected for study was the central Alberta foothills and adjacent prairie environment. A study watershed, representative of the region, was chosen to assess the present and possible future flood frequency-magnitude relationships. A Monte Carlo simulation method was used in conjunction with rainfall-runoff modelling of the study watershed to generate data for flood frequency analysis of maximum annual flood series corresponding to the present and future climate scenarios. The impact of resulting differences in design floods for small dams on spillway design was investigated using the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration small dam design method. Changes in the mean and standard deviation of rainfall depth of design storms in a region will result in new probability distributions of the maximum annual flood flows. A 25% increase in the mean and standard deviation of design rainfall depth resulted in greater increases of 1:2 and 1:100 flood flows than a 50% increase in the standard deviation alone did. Under scenario 1, the 1:2 flood flows increased more than did the 1:100 flows. Scenario 2 produced opposite results, whereby the 1:100 flows increased more than did the 1:2 flows. It seems that a climate change of the type of scenario 1 would result in a more severe increase in flood flows than scenario 2 would. Retrofitting existing spillways of small dams would in most cases require increasing flow capacities of both operating and auxilliary spillways. 23 refs
This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.
A. J. Pitman
Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.
Full Text Available Climate indices to detect changes have been defined in several international projects onclimate change. Climate index calculations require at least daily resolution of time series withoutinhomogeneities, such as transfer of stations, changes in observation practice. In many cases thecharacteristics of the estimated linear trends, calculated from the original and from the homogenizedtime series are significantly different. The ECA&D (European Climate Assessment & Dataset indicesand some other special temperature and precipitation indices of own development were applied to theClimate Database of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Long term daily maximum, minimum anddaily mean temperature data series and daily precipitation sums were examined. The climate indexcalculation processes were tested on original observations and on homogenized daily data fortemperature; in the case of precipitation a complementation process was performed to fill in the gapsof missing data. Experiences of comparing the climate index calculation results, based on original andcomplemented-homogenized data, are reported in this paper. We present the preliminary result ofclimate index calculations also on gridded (interpolated daily data.
Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie
This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.
Lee, Whanhee; Choi, Hayon Michelle; Kim, Dahye; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho
Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972-2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003-2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972-1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Friggens, N C; Ingvartsen, K L; Emmans, G C
A simple method to predict the genetically driven pattern of body lipid change through pregnancy and lactation in dairy cattle is proposed. The rationale and evidence for genetically driven body lipid change have their basis in evolutionary considerations and in the homeorhetic changes in lipid metabolism through the reproductive cycle. The inputs required to predict body lipid change are body lipid mass at calving (kg) and the date of conception (days in milk). Body lipid mass can be derived from body condition score and live weight. A key assumption is that there is a linear rate of change of the rate of body lipid change (dL/dt) between calving and a genetically determined time in lactation (T') at which a particular level of body lipid (L') is sought. A second assumption is that there is a linear rate of change of the rate of body lipid change (dL/dt) between T' and the next calving. The resulting model was evaluated using 2 sets of data. The first was from Holstein cows with 3 different levels of body fatness at calving. The second was from Jersey cows in first, second, and third parity. The model was found to reproduce the observed patterns of change in body lipid reserves through lactation in both data sets. The average error of prediction was low, less than the variation normally associated with the recording of condition score, and was similar for the 2 data sets. When the model was applied using the initially suggested parameter values derived from the literature the average error of prediction was 0.185 units of condition score (+/- 0.086 SD). After minor adjustments to the parameter values, the average error of prediction was 0.118 units of condition score (+/- 0.070 SD). The assumptions on which the model is based were sufficient to predict the changes in body lipid of both Holstein and Jersey cows under different nutritional conditions and parities. Thus, the model presented here shows that it is possible to predict genetically driven curves of body
Today the features of the workers and changes in newly founded working areas bring about new demands in the physical appearance of body and dressing. From this point of view, this article will focus on the changing appearances of body in working life. It will be attempted to relate consumption and fashion with the physical appearance of body in working life and employment application period. The reasons why specifically the bodies who work for service sector are rendered as distintive and ...
More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.
Takacs, Judit; Leiter, Jeff R S; Peeler, Jason D
Lower extremity fractures, if not treated appropriately, can increase the risk of morbidity. Partial weight-bearing after surgical repair is recommended; however, current methods of partial weight-bearing may cause excessive loads through the lower extremity. A new rehabilitation tool that uses lower body positive-pressure is described, that may allow partial weight-bearing while preventing excessive loads, thereby improving functional outcomes. A patient with multiple lower extremity fractures underwent a 6-month rehabilitation programme using bodyweight support technology 3 times per week, post-surgery. The patient experienced a reduction in pain and an improvement in ankle range of motion (p=0.002), walking speed (p>0.05) and physical function (p=0.004), as assessed by the Foot and Ankle Module of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons Lower Limb Outcomes Assessment Instrument. Training did not appear to affect fracture healing, as was evident on radiograph. The effect of lower body positive-pressure on effusion, which has not previously been reported in the literature, was also investigated. No significant difference in effusion of the foot and ankle when using lower body positive-pressure was found. Initial results suggest that this new technology may be a useful rehabilitation tool that allows partial weight-bearing during the treatment of lower extremity injuries.
Mussap, Alexander J
The relationship between approach-avoidance motivational processes and unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviours was investigated. Self-reported sensitivity to rewards (SR) and sensitivity to punishments (SP) were measured for a convenience sample of 130 women, aged 18 to 40 years, along with measures of disordered eating symptomatology and exercise dependence. Together, SR and SP significantly predicted variance in drive for thinness (21%), bulimia (17%), and obligatory exercise (7%). These relationships were partly mediated by internalization of the thin ideal, body comparison, and subjective importance of achieving one's 'ideal' body and of avoiding one's 'worst possible' body. Interestingly, body dissatisfaction partly mediated the relationships involving SP but not SR. The results suggest that an underlying sensitivity to punishments, but not rewards, can manifest as a 'fear of fatness'. Both of these motivational traits can increase the salience of self evaluations, and thus indirectly contribute to unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviours.
Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.
Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.
Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.
Chen, Hong; Jackson, Todd
This nine-month prospective study tested the extent to which risk factors implicated in recent accounts of body dissatisfaction predicted changes in body image concerns of adolescent boys and girls in China. A sample of 593 Chinese adolescents (217 boys, 376 girls) completed measures of weight esteem, appearance esteem and physical stature concern…
Knoops, K.T.B.; Slump, E.; Groot, de C.P.G.M.; Wouters-Wesseling, W.; Brouwer, M.L.; Staveren, van W.A.
Objective. This study was undertaken to identify predictors of body weight change in nursing home patients with possible to severe dementia. Methods. For 24 weeks, 108 elderly residents of a nursing home were followed. Body weight was measured every 2 weeks. Other anthropometric characteristics,
This gender-based article interrogates changes in how Zulu women in particular view their sexuality in terms of their body weight, size and shape, against the backdrop of an individual's image and identity. These concepts are juxtaposed against the western 'thin ideal' of a sexually alluring female body. The article is based ...
This study aimed to investigate the changes in body composition and other anthropometric .... showing a good fit between the values obtained from the equation ..... ideally at 6-monthly intervals, in order to provide useful information to ... training on quality of life in HAART-treated HIV-positive Rwandan subjects with body fat ...
Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik
Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...... in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated...... from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases...
Koval', G.Yu.; Perepust, L.A.; Novikova, Eh.Z.
Changes of the skull in the following body disease are considered. Diseases: endocrine diseases, fibrous osteodystrophy, reticulohistocytoses and noninfectious granulomas, the blood system diseases, disturbance of vitamin balance. Skull roentgenograms in some above-mentioned diseases are presented and analysed
Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.
A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes
Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre
Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations should...
Kevin R. Brooks
Full Text Available Body size misperception is common amongst the general public and is a core component of eating disorders and related conditions. While perennial media exposure to the thin ideal has been blamed for this misperception, relatively little research has examined visual adaptation as a potential mechanism. We examined the extent to which the bodies of self and other are processed by common or separate mechanisms in young women. Using a contingent adaptation paradigm, experiment 1 gave participants prolonged exposure to images both of the self and of another female that had been distorted in opposite directions (e.g. expanded other/contracted self, and assessed the aftereffects using test images both of the self and other. The directions of the resulting perceptual biases were contingent on the test stimulus, establishing at least some separation between the mechanisms encoding these body types. Experiment 2 used a cross adaptation paradigm to further investigate the extent to which these mechanisms are independent. Participants were adapted either to expanded or to contracted images of their own body or that of another female. While adaptation effects were largest when adapting and testing with the same body type, confirming the separation of mechanisms reported in experiment 1, substantial misperceptions were also demonstrated for cross adaptation conditions, demonstrating a degree of overlap in the encoding of self and other. In addition, the evidence of misperception of one’s own body following exposure to thin and to fat others demonstrates the viability of visual adaptation as a model of body image disturbance both for those who underestimate and those who overestimate their own size.
Brooks, Kevin R; Mond, Jonathan M; Stevenson, Richard J; Stephen, Ian D
Body size misperception is common amongst the general public and is a core component of eating disorders and related conditions. While perennial media exposure to the "thin ideal" has been blamed for this misperception, relatively little research has examined visual adaptation as a potential mechanism. We examined the extent to which the bodies of "self" and "other" are processed by common or separate mechanisms in young women. Using a contingent adaptation paradigm, experiment 1 gave participants prolonged exposure to images both of the self and of another female that had been distorted in opposite directions (e.g., expanded other/contracted self), and assessed the aftereffects using test images both of the self and other. The directions of the resulting perceptual biases were contingent on the test stimulus, establishing at least some separation between the mechanisms encoding these body types. Experiment 2 used a cross adaptation paradigm to further investigate the extent to which these mechanisms are independent. Participants were adapted either to expanded or to contracted images of their own body or that of another female. While adaptation effects were largest when adapting and testing with the same body type, confirming the separation of mechanisms reported in experiment 1, substantial misperceptions were also demonstrated for cross adaptation conditions, demonstrating a degree of overlap in the encoding of self and other. In addition, the evidence of misperception of one's own body following exposure to "thin" and to "fat" others demonstrates the viability of visual adaptation as a model of body image disturbance both for those who underestimate and those who overestimate their own size.
Rosenbaum, Bent; Varvin, Sverre
Extreme traumatization affects the individual's relation to others in several social and psychological ways. The post-traumatic experiences are characterized by helplessness, insecurity, anxiety, loss of basic trust, and fragmentation of perspectives on one's own life. Special considerations should......, the subject-group dimension, and the subject-discourse dimension. All three dimensions have specific structural characteristics that are expressed in the analytic relation. Extreme trauma causes disturbances in each of these dimensions. The authors present clinical material from a traumatized refugee...
Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.
Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.
Wang, Lei; Yao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Liguang
The spatiotemporal changes in 21 indices of extreme temperature and precipitation for the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012 were investigated on the basis of daily temperature and precipitation data from 70 meteorological stations. Changes in catastrophic events, such as droughts, floods, and s...
Full Text Available The Three Gorges Dam (TGD is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in the world. Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation offers valuable information for adaptation and mitigation strategies and reservoir management schemes. This study examined variations in extreme precipitation over the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA in China to investigate the potential role of climate warming and Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR. The trends in extreme precipitation over the TGRA were investigated using the iterative-based Mann–Kendall (MK test and Sen’s slope estimator, based on weather station daily data series and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data series. The mean and density distribution of extreme precipitation indices between pre-dam and post-dam, pre-1985 and post-1985, and near and distant reservoir area were assessed by the Mann–Whitney test and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The ratio of extreme precipitation to non-extreme precipitation became larger. The precipitation was characterized by increases in heavy precipitation as well as decreases in light and moderate rain. Comparing extreme precipitation indices between pre-1985 (cooling and post-1985 (warming indicated extreme precipitation has changed to become heavier. Under climate warming, the precipitation amount corresponding to more than the 95th percentile increased at the rate of 6.48%/°C. Results from comparing extreme precipitation for the pre- and post-dam, near reservoir area (NRA and away from the reservoir area (ARA imply an insignificant role of the TGR on rainfall extremes over the TGRA. Moreover, the impoundment of TGR did not exert detectable impacts on the surface relative humidity (RH and water vapor pressure (WP.
Bahn, Michael; Erb, Karlheinz; Hasibeder, Roland; Mayr, Stefan; Niedertscheider, Maria; Oberhuber, Walter; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich; Viovy, Nicolas; Wieser, Gerhard
Extreme climatic events, in particular droughts and heatwaves, have significant impacts on ecosystem carbon and water cycles and a range of related ecosystem services. It is expected that in the coming decades the return intervals and severities of extreme droughts will increase substantially and may result in the passing of thresholds of ecosystem functioning, potentially causing legacy effects, which are so far poorly understood. Observational evidence suggests that different land cover types (forest, grassland) are differently influenced by extreme drought, but there is a lack of knowledge whether and how future, increasingly severe climate extremes will affect their concurrent and lagged responses, as well as land-use decisions determining future shifts in land cover. The ClimLUC project aims to understand how extreme summer drought affects carbon and water dynamics of mountain ecosystems under different land uses, and to analyse implications for ecosystem service provisioning. Overall, we hypothesize that land-use change alters the effects of extreme summer drought on ecosystem processes and the related services, grassland responding more rapidly and strongly but being more resilient to extreme drought than forest. To address the aims and hypotheses, we will 1) test experimentally how (a) a managed, (b) an abandoned mountain grassland and (c) an adjacent subalpine forest respond to a progressive extreme drought and will analyse threshold responses of carbon and water dynamics and their implications for ecosystem services (timber and fodder production, carbon sequestration, water provisioning); 2) quantify carry-over effects of the extreme event on ecosystem processes and services; 3) project and attribute future carbon and water cycle responses to extreme drought and related socio-economic changes, based on a process-based dynamic general vegetation model; 4) analyse the interrelation between land-use changes and the occurrence and severity of past and future
Full Text Available Purpose: to work out recommendations on choosing of exercises for power conditional trainees, considering decrease of fat mass percentage as the purpose. Methods: analysis of changes of body composition of trainees, practicing different kinds of conditional power training. Results: the data about influence of different physical loads on thickness of subcutaneous fat in different parts of body have been generalized. Recommendations on choosing of exercises for power conditional trainees for body composition improving have been presented. It was found that fat loss occurs quicker in upper part of body (subcutaneous and visceral. This is observed with increasing of motor functioning and reducing calories of eating. When training any separate muscular group changes of subcutaneous fat take place not compulsory in body parts, in which the trained group is located. Conclusions: it is purposeful to mainly use basic (multi-joint exercises in power conditional training.
Stachoń, Aleksandra Jadwiga
The aim of the study was to determine whether the tendencies and scope of changes in body mass, body composition and body girths across the menstrual cycle were similar or different in women of different body build. Anthropometric examinations were carried out in a group of 40 naturally regularly menstruated females practicing team sports (aged 19-21, B-v 169.3+/-6.4 cm, body mass 59.6+/-7.0 kg), in the follicular, periovulatory and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle. The phases were determined on the basis of data from two consecutive menstrual cycles taking into account the cycle’s length. To establish the type of body build, Body Mass Index, hydration status and skinfold thickness were measured. For a statistical analysis, a multiple comparisons with multiple confidence intervals were applied. The increase in body mass between the follicular and the luteal phases was observed in all groups of women, the biggest gain was recorded in slim women, who in the luteal phase weighted 0.8 kg more. The amount of fat mass increased significantly across the menstrual cycle only in more hydrated (by about 0.66 kg) and slim women (by about 0.54 kg). Significant changes between consecutive phases of the menstrual cycle in waist and hip girths, and suprailiac skinfold thickness in some groups of women also indicate influence of fatness and hydration status and slenderness. In view of the presented results, the body build seems important for an analysis of the pattern of each component’s changes across the menstrual cycle, especially for female athletes. Certain changes can be seen only in some groups of women, therefore somatic features can be considered as a predictor of the intensity of changes.
Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang
Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought
Full Text Available High-resolution modeling is necessary to project weather and climate extremes and their future changes under global warming. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is able to reproduce climate fields as well as regional-scale phenomena such as monsoonal rainfall, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and heavy precipitation. This 20-km mesh model is applied to project future changes in weather and climate extremes at the end of the 21st century with four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST changes: one with the mean SST changes by the 28 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP-8.5 scenario, and the other three obtained from a cluster analysis, in which tropical SST anomalies derived from the 28 CMIP5 models were grouped. Here we focus on future changes in regional precipitation and its extremes. Various precipitation indices averaged over the Twenty-two regional land domains are calculated. Heavy precipitation indices (maximum 5-day precipitation total and maximum 1-day precipitation total increase in all regional domains, even where mean precipitation decrease (Southern Africa, South Europe/Mediterranean, Central America. South Asia is the domain of the largest extreme precipitation increase. In some domains, different SST patterns result in large precipitation changes, possibly related to changes in large-scale circulations in the tropical Pacific.
McCabe, Marita P; McGreevy, Shauna J
There has been limited previous research that has examined the role of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult men. The current study investigated the role of specific types of messages (encouragement, teasing and modelling) from peers and the media on the strategies to change weight among adult men. Differences were evaluated between 526 men aged from 18 to 60 years from three groups (normal weight, overweight and obese) on body image, body change strategies and messages about their body received from peers and the media. Men were primarily drawn from United States, Australia and Europe. Results showed that messages received by men regarding losing weight or increasing muscle size differed according to weight. Body image and media messages were the strongest predictors of losing weight, whereas body image importance and messages from peers were the strongest predictors of increasing muscles. These findings highlight the importance of sociocultural influences on body change strategies among adult males. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.
Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and
Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.
Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the
Full Text Available Changing the visual body appearance by use of as virtual reality system, funny mirror, or binocular glasses has been reported to be helpful in rehabilitation of pain. However, there are interindividual differences in the analgesic effect of changing the visual body image. We hypothesized that a negative body image associated with changing the visual body appearance causes interindividual differences in the analgesic effect although the relationship between the visual body appearance and analgesic effect has not been clarified. We investigated whether a negative body image associated with changes in the visual body appearance increased pain. Twenty-five healthy individuals participated in this study. To evoke a negative body image, we applied the method of rubber hand illusion. We created an "injured rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with pain, a "hairy rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with embarrassment, and a "twisted rubber hand" to evoke unpleasantness associated with deviation from the concept of normality. We also created a "normal rubber hand" as a control. The pain threshold was measured while the participant observed the rubber hand using a device that measured pain caused by thermal stimuli. Body ownership experiences were elicited by observation of the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand as well as the normal rubber hand. Participants felt more unpleasantness by observing the injured rubber hand and hairy rubber hand than the normal rubber hand and twisted rubber hand (p<0.001. The pain threshold was lower under the injured rubber hand condition than with the other conditions (p<0.001. We conclude that a negative body appearance associated with pain can increase pain sensitivity.
Full Text Available It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900–2014 records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995, whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95 and driest summer (1995 has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.
Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.
More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.
Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung
This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further
Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
NING Liang; QIAN Yongfu
Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months' extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.
Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Hegnauer, Mark; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Lammersen, Rita; van den Boogaard, Henk; Beersma, Jules
The Dutch method for quantifying the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of discharge extremes in the Rhine basin and the potential influence of climate change hereon are presented. In the Netherlands flood protection design requires estimates of discharge extremes for return periods of 1000 up to 100,000 years. Observed discharge records are too short to derive such extreme return discharges, therefore extreme value assessment is based on very long synthetic discharge time-series generated with the Generator of Rainfall And Discharge Extremes (GRADE). The GRADE instrument consists of (1) a stochastic weather generator based on time series resampling of historical f rainfall and temperature and (2) a hydrological model optimized following the GLUE methodology and (3) a hydrodynamic model to simulate the propagation of flood waves based on the generated hydrological time-series. To assess the potential influence of climate change, the four KNMI'14 climate scenarios are applied. These four scenarios represent a large part of the uncertainty provided by the GCMs used for the IPCC 5th assessment report (the CMIP5 GCM simulations under different climate forcings) and are for this purpose tailored to the Rhine and Meuse river basins. To derive the probability distributions of extreme discharges under climate change the historical synthetic rainfall and temperature series simulated with the weather generator are transformed to the future following the KNMI'14 scenarios. For this transformation the Advanced Delta Change method, which allows that the changes in the extremes differ from those in the means, is used. Subsequently the hydrological model is forced with the historical and future (i.e. transformed) synthetic time-series after which the propagation of the flood waves is simulated with the hydrodynamic model to obtain the extreme discharge statistics both for current and future climate conditions. The study shows that both for 2050 and 2085 increases in discharge
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.
A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of...... drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future. © IWA Publishing 2013....
Perrussel , Ronan; Voyer , Damien; Nicolas , Laurent; Scorretti , Riccardo; Burais , Noël
International audience; Computation of electromagnetic fields in high resolution computational phantoms requires solving large linear systems. We present an application of Schwarz preconditioners with Krylov subspace methods for computing extremely low frequency induced fields in a phantom issued from the Visible Human.
Wang, Jun; Tett, Simon F. B.; Yan, Zhongwei; Feng, Jinming
Extreme temperatures affect populous regions, like eastern China, causing substantial socio-economic losses. It is beneficial to explore whether the frequencies of absolute or threshold-based extreme temperatures have been changed by human activities, such as anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, we compared observed and multi-model-simulated changes in the frequencies of summer days, tropical nights, icy days and frosty nights in eastern China for the years 1960-2012 by using an optimal fingerprinting method. The observed long-term trends in the regional mean frequencies of these four indices were +2.36, +1.62, -0.94, -3.02 days decade-1. The models performed better in simulating the observed frequency change in daytime extreme temperatures than nighttime ones. Anthropogenic influences are detectable in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices. The influence of natural forcings could not be detected robustly in any indices. Further analysis found that the effects of GHGs changed the frequencies of summer days (tropical nights, icy days, frosty nights) by +3.48 ± 1.45 (+2.99 ± 1.35, -2.52 ± 1.28, -4.11 ± 1.48) days decade-1. Other anthropogenic forcing agents (dominated by anthropogenic aerosols) offset the GHG effect and changed the frequencies of these four indices by -1.53 ± 0.78, -1.49 ± 0.94, +1.84 ± 1.07, +1.45 ± 1.26 days decade-1, respectively. Little influence of natural forcings was found in the observed frequency changes of these four temperature extreme indices.
Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.
Læssøe, Uffe; Barth, Lasse; Skeie, Sindre
Relevance: Clinical experience advocates manual stimulation in order to increase the sensation of the body and adjust the body schema. Unilateral treatment may affect the midline sensation and weight distribution in a standing position, but little evidence is available to support this procedure...... alignment was seen as a response to unilateral massage. It may be suggested, that the manipulated midline sensation and weight distribution reflects a state in which the participant's attention to a greater extent has been directed towards a specific body part due to the manual sensory stimulation. Impact...
Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo
In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to
Spigarelli, S.A.; Thommes, M.M.; Beitinger, T.L.
Body temperature change rate experiments were conducted on alewife, brown trout, rainbow trout, brook trout, and carp collected from the discharge flumes and inshore areas near the Point Beach Nuclear Plant. Test fish were exposed to immediate water temperature changes of up to 10.6 0 C by transfer between ambient and discharge water holding tanks. Results showed that the temperature change rate was related to fish size, species, and direction of change, suggesting that rapid temperature changes would have a more pronounced effect on smaller fish
Lenderink, Geert; Van Meijgaard, Erik
Relations between hourly precipitation extremes and atmospheric temperature and moisture derived for the present-day climate are studied with the aim of understanding the behavior (and the uncertainty in predictions) of hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate. A dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the daily mean 2 m temperature of approximately two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation is found for temperatures above 10 deg. C. This is a robust relation obtained in four observational records across western Europe. A dependency following the CC relation can be explained by the observed increase in atmospheric (absolute) humidity with temperature, whereas the enhanced dependency (compared to the CC relation) appears to be caused by dynamical feedbacks owing to excess latent heat release in extreme showers. Integrations with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 at 25 km grid spacing show that changes in hourly precipitation extremes may indeed considerably exceed the prediction from the CC relation. The results suggests that increases of + 70% or even more are possible by the end of this century. However, a different regional model (CLM operated at ETHZ) predicts much smaller increases; this is probably caused by a too strong sensitivity of this model to a decrease in relative humidity.
Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan
Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014
Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Hazeleger, W.
In this study, we investigate the change in multi-day precipitation extremes in late winter in Europe using observations and climate models. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models can accurately reproduce observed trends and, if not, to find the causes of the
Full Text Available This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices...
Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...
Bonet, Mercedes; Cuttini, M; Piedvache, A
OBJECTIVE: to investigate changes in maternity and neonatal unit policies towards extremely preterm infants (EPTI) between 2003 and 2012 and concurrent trends in their mortality and morbidity in ten European regions. DESIGN: population-based cohort studies in 2003 (MOSAIC study) and 2011/12 (EPIC...
Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter
In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.
Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia
We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.
We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722
This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...
Burkhart, Timothy A; Brydges, Evan; Stefanczyk, Jennifer; Andrews, David M
The occurrence of distal upper extremity injuries resulting from forward falls (approximately 165,000 per year) has remained relatively constant for over 20years. Previous work has provided valuable insight into fall arrest strategies, but only symmetric falls in body postures that do not represent actual fall scenarios closely have been evaluated. This study quantified the effect of asymmetric loading and body postures on distal upper extremity response to simulated forward falls. Twenty participants were suspended from the Propelled Upper Limb fall ARest Impact System (PULARIS) in different torso and leg postures relative to the ground and to the sagittal plane (0°, 30° and 45°). When released from PULARIS (hands 10cm above surface, velocity 1m/s), participants landed on two force platforms, one for each hand. Right forearm impact response was measured with distal (radial styloid) and proximal (olecranon) tri-axial accelerometers and bipolar EMG from seven muscles. Overall, the relative height of the torso and legs had little effect on the forces, or forearm response variables. Muscle activation patterns consistently increased from the start to the peak activation levels after impact for all muscles, followed by a rapid decline after peak. The impact forces and accelerations suggest that the distal upper extremity is loaded more medial-laterally during asymmetric falls than symmetric falls. Altering the direction of the impact force in this way (volar-dorsal to medial-lateral) may help reduce distal extremity injuries caused when landing occurs symmetrically in the sagittal plane as it has been shown that volar-dorsal forces increase the risk of injury. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.
Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is
Gao, Lu; Huang, Jie; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Liu, Meibing
This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April-June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986-2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities.
Haren, Ronald van; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Lenderink, Geert; Hazeleger, Wilco
In this study, we investigate the change in multi-day precipitation extremes in late winter in Europe using observations and climate models. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models can accurately reproduce observed trends and, if not, to find the causes of the difference in trends. Similarly to an earlier finding for mean precipitation trends, and despite a lower signal to noise ratio, climate models fail to reproduce the increase in extremes in much of northern Europe: the model simulations do not cover the observed trend in large parts of this area. A dipole in the sea-level pressure trend over continental Europe causes positive trends in extremes in northern Europe and negative trends in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate models have a much weaker pressure trend dipole and as a result a much weaker (extreme) precipitation response. The inability of climate models to correctly simulate observed changes in atmospheric circulation is also primarily responsible for the underestimation of trends in the Rhine basin. When it has been adjusted for the circulation trend mismatch, the observed trend is well within the spread of the climate model simulations. Therefore, it is important that we improve our understanding of circulation changes, in particular related to the cause of the apparent mismatch between observed and modeled circulation trends over the past century. (letter)
Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin
Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.
Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Monier, E.
Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, a validated analogue method is employed to diagnose the potential future shifts in the probability of extreme precipitation over the United States under global warming. The method is based on the use of the resolved large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) to detect the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The CMIP5 multi-model projections have been compiled for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The application of such analogue method to detect other types of hazard events, i.e. landslides is also explored. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.
Shriver, Lenka Humenikova; Betts, Nancy Mulhollen; Payton, Mark Edward
Many wrestlers engage in chronic dieting and rapid "weight cutting" throughout the year to compete in a category below their natural weight. Such weight-management practices have a negative influence on their health and nutritional status, so the National Wrestling Coaches Association implemented a new weight-management program for high school wrestlers in 2006. The purpose of this study was to determine whether seasonal changes in weight, body fat, and eating attitudes occur among high school wrestlers after the implementation of the new weight-management rule. Fifteen high school wrestlers participated in the study. Their weight, body composition, and eating attitudes were measured preseason, in-season, and off-season. Body fat was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Attitudes toward dieting, food, and body weight were assessed using the Eating Attitude Test (EAT). No significant changes in body fat were detected from preseason to off-season. Weight increased from preseason to in-season (p < .05) and off-season (p < .05). Although the EAT score did not change significantly from preseason to off-season, 60% reported "thinking about burning up calories when exercising" during preseason, and only 40% felt that way during the season (p < .05) and 47% during, off-season (p < .05). The wrestlers experienced a significant weight gain from preseason to off-season with no significant changes in body fat. Their eating attitudes did not change significantly from preseason to off-season in this study, but further research using a large sample of high school wrestlers is warranted to confirm these findings.
Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.
Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.
Ruffault, Julien; Curt, Thomas; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Moron, Vincent; Trigo, Ricardo M.
Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.
Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.
The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on
Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.
Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while
loss by an average of only 0,02 kg per day and no consistent effect on the reconception .... partum body-mass change of cows, reconception and also growth of calves. ..... No reason could be found for the five Sussex type cows which did not ...
Background and objectives. An understanding of the effect of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on various aspects of health, including nutritional status, is needed to ensure that population-specific guidelines can be developed for South Africa. This study aimed to investigate the changes in body composition and ...
Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David
Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.
Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal...... and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those...
Platoni, Kalliopi; Diamantopoulos, Stefanos; Dilvoi, Maria; Delinikolas, Panagiotis; Kypraiou, Efrosyni; Efstathopoulos, Efstathios; Kouloulias, Vassilis
Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) is a systemic neoplastic disease that can present cutaneous symptoms and is usually treated with a systematic approach due to its extent. Due to its radiosensitivity, radiotherapy is considered one of its main treatments, for palliation and local control of the skin and mucosal lesions. The aim of this paper was to report the first case of KS treated by hemi-body electron irradiation protocol in Greece. A fractionated 40 Gy hemi-body electron irradiation was prescribed to a 60-year-old male patient with KS at his legs. Dose uniformity was verified on a daily basis by thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD). The treatment resulted to complete clinical response. Limited irradiation-derived side effects appeared. This is the first case ever to be treated with hemi-body electron irradiation protocol in Greece. To the best of our knowledge, this is also the first time that a single field hemi-body electron beam irradiation at a total skin electron beam (TSEB)-like configuration is reported to be used for KS.
Aguilar, E.; Aziz Barry, A.; Brunet, M.; Ekang, L.; Fernandes, A.; Massoukina, M.; Mbah, J.; Mhanda, A.; Do Nascimento, D. J.; Peterson, T. C.; Thamba Umba, O.; Tomou, M.; Zhang, X.
Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.
Full Text Available Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of whole body vibration training (WBVT and creatine (Cr supplementation on lower extremity performance and balance in elderly males. Methods & Materials: In this semi-experimental study, twenty two eligible males from the members of an elderly daycare center with more than 60 years of age were enrolled and were divided into three groups randomly, WBVT+Cr(n=7, WBVT+Pgroup (n=7, and control group (n=8. In WBVT+Cr and WBVT+P groups exercises were performed on the whole body vibration device for 10 days with 30-35 Hz intensity and 5 mm amplitude. The WBVT+Cr group consumed 20g/day Crsupplement for the first 5 days followed by 5g/days for the next 5 days of protocol. The WBVT+P group consumed dexterous. The control group neither did any exercise nor consumed any supplement during the protocol. Static balance by standing time on one leg, dynamic balance by TUG test and lower extremity performance by 30-meter walking test, sit and stand test and tandem gait test weremeasured. Paired sample t-test and one way ANOVAwere used for data analysis (α=0.05. Results: Our results showed that dynamic balance, lower body performance in 30- meter walking and tandem gait improved in experimental groups. However, ANOVA did not show any significant increase in static balance (P=0.514, dynamic balance (P=0.153, lower body performance in 30-meter walking test (P=0.339, sit and stand test (P=0.578 and tandem gait (P=0.151. Conclusion: In conclusion, it seems that WBVT plus Cr supplementation improves some of the motor fitness factors in elderly males during a short time.
Gotfredsen, Arne; Baeksgaard, L; Hilsted, J
Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) has a high accuracy for body composition analysis but is influenced by beam hardening and other error sources in the extremes of measurement. To compensate for beam hardening, the Norland XR-36 introduces a dynamically changing samarium filtration system......). Scans of six healthy volunteers covered with combinations of beef and lard (approximately 5-15 kg) showed a good agreement (r = 0.99) between reference and DEXA values of added soft tissue mass and fat percentage. We conclude that the DEXA method (and, in particular, the Norland XR-36 using dynamic...
Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.
The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines
Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.
The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3. In general, climate
Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe
An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).
Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina
The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.
Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.
In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657
Full Text Available In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.
García-Gutiérrez, M T; Hazell, T J; Marín, P J
To evaluate the effects of whole-body vibration (WBV) on skeletal muscle activity and power performance of the upper body during decline bench press exercise at different loads. Forty-seven healthy young and active male students volunteered. Each performed dynamic decline bench press repetitions with and without WBV (50 Hz, 2.2 mm) applied through a hamstring bridge exercise at three different loads of their 1-repetition maximum (1RM): 30%, 50%, and 70% 1RM. Muscle activity of the triceps brachii (TB), biceps brachii (BB), pectoralis major (PM), and biceps femoris (BF) was measured with surface electromyography electrodes and kinetic parameters of the repetitions were measured with a rotary encoder. WBV increased peak power (PP) output during the 70% 1RM condition (pbench press and this augmentation contributes to an increased peak power at higher loads and increased peak acceleration at lower loads.
Soto Ruiz, María Nelia; Aguinaga Ontonso, Inés; Canga Armayor, Navidad; Guillén-Grima, Francisco; Hermoso de Mendoza, Juana; Serrano Monzo, Inmaculada; Marín Fernández, Blanca
One of the strategies for the prevention of the obesity is the identification of critical periods of gain weight. Some studies confirm gain weight during the university period. The purpose of the present study was to determine the changes in the body weight of the university students in Navarre. Prospective cohort study. Public University of Navarre and the University of Navarre, in Pamplona. Study examined weight change among 452 students attending at university in Pamplona, during first and third course. Four hundred and fifty two students completed the questionnaire. Weight and height were measures and body mass index was calculated. The mean body weight increased 0,600 kg, 1,8 kg for males and no change in body weight was observed in female. 44,7 % of students gained weight (60,8 % of men and 36,8 % of women), and the gain weight was of 3,4 kg. University years are a critical factor for the gain weight, particularly males. Consideration of this, is necessary the development of effective weight gain prevention strategies during the university. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.
In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.
Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.
Full Text Available To evaluate body composition, metabolism and growth as well as their interaction with early nutrition in former extremely low birth weight infants (ELBW, we assessed qualitative and quantitative nutritional intake during initial hospitalization and infantile growth parameters in 61 former ELBW infants with a birth weight <1000 g. In two follow-up exams, physical and biochemical development were measured at 5.7 and at 9.5 years. At the second follow-up, in addition to biochemical reassessment, body composition was analyzed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA. Protein intake between birth and discharge was associated with weight gain in the first six months of life (r = 0.51; p < 0.01. Weight catch-up preceded height catch-up. Protein intake in early infancy correlated highly significantly with abdominal fat mass (r = 0.49; p < 0.05, but not with lean body mass at 9.5 years (r = 0.30; not significant (n.s.. In contrast to nutrient intake, birth weight was associated with lean body mass (r = 0.433; p < 0.001. Early protein and carbohydrate intake were associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL-cholesterol, and early catch-up growth correlated with fasting insulin at follow-up. Stepwise linear regression demonstrated that protein intake predicted fat mass (p < 0.05, whereas only gender and birth weight standard deviation score (SDS contributed significantly to lean body mass variation (p < 0.05. Our results suggest an important impact of early nutrient intake on body composition and metabolism in later childhood in ELBW children.
Martínez-Ramírez, H R; Jeaurond, E A; de Lange, C F M
A study was conducted to evaluate the extent and dynamics of whole body protein deposition and changes in chemical and physical body composition after a period of AA intake restriction in growing barrows with medium lean tissue growth potentials. Forty Yorkshire barrows (initial BW 14.4 +/- 1.6 kg) were scale-fed at 75% of estimated voluntary daily DE intake up to 35 kg of BW and assigned to 1 of 2 diets: AA adequate (AA+; 20% above requirements; NRC, 1998) and AA deficient (AA-; 40% below requirements; restriction phase). Thereafter (re-alimentation phase), pigs from both dietary AA levels were scale-fed or fed ad libitum diets that were not limiting in AA. Body weight gain and body composition, based on serial slaughter, were monitored during the 34-d re-alimentation phase. During the restriction phase AA intake restriction reduced BW gains (556 vs. 410 g/d; P alimentation phase (P > 0.10). Throughout the re-alimentation phase, there were no interactive effects of time, feeding level, and previous AA intake level on growth performance, body protein, and body lipid content (P > 0.10). During the re-alimentation phase, body protein deposition, derived from the linear regression analysis of body protein content vs. time, was not affected by feeding level and previous AA intake level (P > 0.10; 156 g/d for AA- vs. 157 g/d for AA+). Based on BW and body protein content, it can be concluded that no compensatory body protein deposition occurred in barrows, with medium lean tissue growth potential after AA intake restriction between 15 and 35 kg of BW. It is suggested that the upper limit to body protein deposition was the main factor that limited the extent of compensatory body protein deposition in this population of pigs. The concept of an upper limit to body protein deposition may be used to explain why compensatory growth is observed in some studies and not in others.
Frolov, V K; Koshkin, V M; Karalkin, A V [Vtoroj Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Meditsinskij Inst. (USSR)
The method and the results of measuring the blood volumes in the lower extremities in the horizontal and vertical position of the body are given. A combination of a single-sensor counter of the whole body and a gamma-chamber with the use of two nondiffuse active radioindicators, erythrocytes labelled with /sup 51/Cr and albumin-sup(99m)Tc in certain sequence, is found to be the most optimal for quantitative evaluation of the regional volumes of the blood. To raise the informativeness of the studies the authors recommend distinguishing ''rapid'' and ''slow'' fractions of the blood volume progressive growth in the crus since the correlation of these fractions reflect the specific features of an individual orthostatic reaction for each examinee.
Emma F. Camp
Full Text Available Global climate change and localized anthropogenic stressors are driving rapid declines in coral reef health. In vitro experiments have been fundamental in providing insight into how reef organisms will potentially respond to future climates. However, such experiments are inevitably limited in their ability to reproduce the complex interactions that govern reef systems. Studies examining coral communities that already persist under naturally-occurring extreme and marginal physicochemical conditions have therefore become increasingly popular to advance ecosystem scale predictions of future reef form and function, although no single site provides a perfect analog to future reefs. Here we review the current state of knowledge that exists on the distribution of corals in marginal and extreme environments, and geographic sites at the latitudinal extremes of reef growth, as well as a variety of shallow reef systems and reef-neighboring environments (including upwelling and CO2 vent sites. We also conduct a synthesis of the abiotic data that have been collected at these systems, to provide the first collective assessment on the range of extreme conditions under which corals currently persist. We use the review and data synthesis to increase our understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms that facilitate survival and success under sub-optimal physicochemical conditions. This comprehensive assessment can begin to: (i highlight the extent of extreme abiotic scenarios under which corals can persist, (ii explore whether there are commonalities in coral taxa able to persist in such extremes, (iii provide evidence for key mechanisms required to support survival and/or persistence under sub-optimal environmental conditions, and (iv evaluate the potential of current sub-optimal coral environments to act as potential refugia under changing environmental conditions. Such a collective approach is critical to better understand the future survival of
Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.
The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban
Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.
Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.
A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman
The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for ...
A. Mahmud; M. Hixson; M. J. Kleeman
The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days ...
The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.
Full Text Available Changes in the body fat content of the hyrax Procavia capensis were used as an indicator of physiological condition. Body fat rankings for the different sexes showed seasonal variations related to physiologically stressful periods (rutting, gestation and lactation. The subjective body fat rankings were correlated significantly with total body fat.
Evelyn I. Rodríguez Morrill
Full Text Available This work shows several ways to meet and relax the body through personal knowledge and techniques encounter with nature. Modern life and fast, the constant pressure from childhood to adulthood, in the modes of interaction between individuals and groups, they lead to construction of bodies that reflect emotional anatomy visible loss of balance, contractures, inflammation, multiple imbalances by lack of knowledge and awareness especially being in the world fully, the person has moved away from its ecological relationship with itself and the environment. Methods are shown to positively change a condition of constant stress and chronic discomfort, a learned condition of physical and psychological wellbeing, with a series of movements, recovering the body through exercise, to tend to personal balance, obtaining a positive relationship with the environment and the people attended. The proposal starts promoting new habits that can be saved in consciousness. Partly, mainly of breath, alignment with the music and the environment and personal and group work
Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula
Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
Full Text Available Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing
Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....
A F Lutz
Full Text Available The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.
Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.
The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994
Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P
The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.
Bonafini, B A; Pozzilli, P
By observing the art of different eras, as well as the more recent existence of the media, it is obvious that there have been dramatic changes in what is considered a beautiful body. The ideal of female beauty has shifted from a symbol of fertility to one of mathematically calculated proportions. It has taken the form of an image responding to men's sexual desires. Nowadays there seems to be a tendency towards the destruction of the feminine, as androgynous fashion and appearance dominate our culture. The metamorphosis of the ideal woman follows the shifting role of women in society from mother and mistress to a career-orientated individual. Her depiction by artists across the centuries reveals this change in role and appearance that should be interpreted within the social and historical context of each era with its own theories of what constituted the ideal female body weight. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.
Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.
The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long
Findell, Kirsten L; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John P; Lintner, Benjamin R; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph A; Shevliakova, Elena
Land surface processes modulate the severity of heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. However, models show contrasting effects of land surface changes on extreme temperatures. Here, we use an earth system model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to investigate regional impacts of land use and land cover change on combined extremes of temperature and humidity, namely aridity and moist enthalpy, quantities central to human physiological experience of near-surface climate. The model's near-surface temperature response to deforestation is consistent with recent observations, and conversion of mid-latitude natural forests to cropland and pastures is accompanied by an increase in the occurrence of hot-dry summers from once-in-a-decade to every 2-3 years. In the tropics, long time-scale oceanic variability precludes determination of how much of a small, but significant, increase in moist enthalpy throughout the year stems from the model's novel representation of historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, and regrowth of secondary vegetation and how much is forced by internal variability within the tropical oceans.
Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.
Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.
A colossal magnetoresistance (˜100×10^3% ) and an extremely large magnetoresistance (˜1×10^6% ) have been previously explored in manganite perovskites and Dirac materials, respectively. However, the requirement of an extremely strong magnetic field (and an extremely low temperature) makes them not applicable for realistic devices. In this work, we propose a device that can generate even larger changes in resistance in a zero-magnetic field and at a high temperature. The device is composed of graphene under two strips of yttrium iron garnet (YIG), where two gate voltages are applied to cancel the heavy charge doping in the YIG-induced half-metallic ferromagnets. By calculations using the Landauer-Büttiker formalism, we demonstrate that, when a proper gate voltage is applied on the free ferromagnet, changes in resistance up to 305×10^6% (16×10^3% ) can be achieved at the liquid helium (nitrogen) temperature and in a zero magnetic field. We attribute such a remarkable effect to a gate-induced full-polarization reversal in the free ferromagnet, which results in a metal-state to insulator-state transition in the device. We also find that the proposed effect can be realized in devices using other magnetic insulators, such as EuO and EuS. Our work should be helpful for developing a realistic switching device that is energy saving and CMOS-technology compatible.
van der Ploeg, G E; Brooks, A G; Withers, R T; Dollman, J; Leaney, F; Chatterton, B E
To determine anthropometric and body composition changes in female bodybuilders during preparation for competition. There was an attempt to match subjects in the control and experimental groups for height and percentage body fat (%BF) for the initial test of this longitudinal study. Five competitive bodybuilders (-X +/- s.d.: 35.3 +/- 5.7 y; 167.3 +/- 3.7 cm; 66.38 +/- 6.30 kg; 18.3 +/- 3.5 %BF) and five athletic females (-X +/- s.d.: 30.9 +/- 13.0 y; 166.9 +/- 3.9 cm; 55.94 +/- 3.59 kg; 19.1 +/- 3.3 %BF) were recruited from advertisements in a bodybuilding newsletter and placed on sports centre noticeboards. The following measurements were conducted 12 weeks, 6 weeks and 3-5 d before the bodybuilders' competitions: anthropometric profile, body density by underwater weighing, total body water via deuterium dilution and bone mineral mass from a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan. A combination of the last three measurements enabled the %BF to the determined by a four compartment model. A significant (P bodybuilders as they prepared for competition was primarily due to a reduction in fat mass (FM; -4.42 kg; 76.2%) as opposed to fat-free mass (FFM; -1.38 kg; 23.8%). The decreases in body mass and FM over the final 6 weeks were greater than those over the first 6 weeks. Their %BF decreased (P bodybuilders were accompanied by a significant decline (P bodybuilders presented with low %BFs at the start of the experiment, they still significantly decreased their body mass during the 12 week preparation for competition and most of this loss was due to a reduction in FM as opposed to FFM.
Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van
Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia
of climate change impacts from anthropogenic effects can be established based on projections of daily precipitation. These estimates have then been further downscaled to enable urban pluvial inundation calculations using different statistical downscaling and extreme value analysis techniques. . From...... of precipitation extremes. The objective is to establish cities that are resilient to pluvial floods by means of a gradual upgrading of the drainage capacity in combination with a structured risk management approach. Using the regional climate model (RCM) data repositories from PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES, estimates....... These results are important for the extrapolation to future events. Currently efforts are dedicated to constructing similar models based on outputs from climate models, but the models are complicated due to the fact that the correlation structure of high-resolution precipitation in the climate models deviates...
Romero, Ana M.; Grimbergen, Tom; McWhan, Andrew; Stadtmann, Hannes; Fantuzzi, Elena; Clairand, Isabelle; Neumaier, Stefan; Dombrowski, Harald; Figel, Markus
The European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS) has been organising dosimetry intercomparisons for many years in response to an identified requirement from individual monitoring services (IMS) for independent performance tests for dosimetry systems. The participation in intercomparisons gives IMS the opportunity to show compliance with their own quality management system, compare results with other participants and develop plans for improving their dosimetry systems. In response to growing demand, EURADOS has increased the number of intercomparisons for external radiation dosimetry. Most of these fit into the programme of self-financing intercomparisons for dosemeters routinely used by IMS. This programme is being coordinated by EURADOS working group 2 (WG2). Up to now, this programme has included four intercomparisons for whole-body dosemeters in photon fields, one for extremity dosemeters in photon and beta fields, and one for whole-body dosemeters in neutron fields. Other EURADOS working groups have organised additional intercomparisons including events in 2014 for eye-lens dosemeters and passive area dosemeters for environmental monitoring. In this paper, the organisation and achievements of these intercomparisons are compared in detail focusing on the similarities and differences in their execution. (authors)
Vogel, Martha Marie; Orth, René; Cheruy, Frederique; Hagemann, Stefan; Lorenz, Ruth; van den Hurk, Bart; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle
Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate here the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multi-model experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate physical processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America and between 42%-52% in Amazonia, Northern Australia and Southern Africa. Soil moisture trends (multi-decadal soil moisture variability) are more important for this response than short-term (e.g. seasonal, interannual) soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections. Vogel, M.M. et al.,2017. Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted.
Climate change is widely considered as a reality by scientists. Nevertheless, impacts on hydrological extremes are more difficult to observe and to forecast. The aim of this thesis is to answer the following questions: How to detect changes in hydro-climatic series? What are the observed changes for extreme discharges in France? How to take into account possible changes in frequency analysis? These objectives refer to both local and regional scales. This paper describes the developments related to the third question. In a first step, the concept of return period is revisited in a non-stationary context. Frequency analysis methods are then updated in order to account for evolutions in time. This is achieved by modelling trends affecting the distribution parameters. Parameter estimation uses the Bayesian formalism, which is a convenient tool for quantifying the uncertainty related to the stationarity hypothesis. This approach can be generalized at the regional scale, by means of non-stationary regional models. Such models are more general than the model underlying the index flood method. However, results of such a regional analysis are affected by the spatial dependence existing between studied sites. Impacts of this dependence on quantile estimates are highlighted, and a first approach is proposed in order to explicitly model spatial dependence. (author)
Teunissen, L P J; Daanen, H A M; De Haan, A; De Koning, J J
Core temperature measurement with an ingestible telemetry pill has been scarcely investigated during extreme rates of temperature change, induced by short high-intensity exercise in the heat. Therefore, nine participants performed a protocol of rest, (sub)maximal cycling and recovery at 30 °C. The pill temperature (T pill ) was compared with the rectal temperature (T re ) and esophageal temperature (T es ). T pill corresponded well to T re during the entire trial, but deviated considerably from T es during the exercise and recovery periods. During maximal exercise, the average ΔT pill −T re and ΔT pill −T es were 0.13 ± 0.26 and −0.57 ± 0.53 °C, respectively. The response time from the start of exercise, the rate of change during exercise and the peak temperature were similar for T pill and T re. T es responded 5 min earlier, increased more than twice as fast and its peak value was 0.42 ± 0.46 °C higher than T pill . In conclusion, also during considerable temperature changes at a very high rate, T pill is still a representative of T re . The extent of the deviation in the pattern and peak values between T pill and T es (up to >1 °C) strengthens the assumption that T pill is unsuited to evaluate central blood temperature when body temperatures change rapidly. (paper)
Hwang, Sinchun; Lefkowitz, Robert; Landa, Jonathan; Akin, Oguz; Schwartz, Lawrence H.; Cassie, Conrad; Panicek, David M.; Healey, John H.; Alektiar, Kaled M.
To determine the prevalence and appearance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal changes that occur in local bone marrow after radiation therapy (RT) and/or chemotherapy for extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Seventy patients with primary STS at the level of a long bone who also had undergone pretreatment MRI and at least one post-treatment MRI of the tumor bed were identified. MRIs of each patient were retrospectively reviewed for new changes in marrow signal in the region of the tumor bed and for the morphology, relative signal intensities, heterogeneity, and progression or regression of changes over time. Focal signal changes in marrow were observed in 26/70 patients (37%) at a median of 9.5 months after RT and/or chemotherapy and diffuse changes in seven (10%) at a median of 8 months. Patients who received neither RT nor chemotherapy did not develop marrow changes. Mean RT doses in patients with changes and those without were 5,867 and 6,076 cGy, respectively. In most patients with focal changes, changes were seen in all sequences and were linear-curvilinear, patchy, or mixed at the level of the tumor bed. Predominant signal intensity of changes was between muscle and fat at T1WI and between muscle and fluid at fat-saturated T2WI or short tau inversion recovery. Most focal changes enhanced heterogeneously and increased or fluctuated in size over time. Changes in MRI appearance of long bone marrow frequently are evident after combined RT and chemotherapy for STS and most commonly increase or fluctuate in size over time. These changes have various non-mass-like configurations and often show signal intensities similar to those of red marrow and thus should not be mistaken for metastases. The marrow changes might represent an early stage of gelatinous transformation of marrow. (orig.)
Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))
Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change
Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K.; Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L.
Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change
Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun
of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC
Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.
Lundqvist, G R; Pedersen, O F; Hilberg, O; Nielsen, B
The changes in nasal patency following a 1.5 degrees C decrease or increase in whole body temperature were measured in 8 healthy young males, during and after 30 min of immersion in a 15 degrees C cold or a 40 degrees C warm bath, breathing air at the same temperature, in a cross-over experimental design. The nasal reactions were traced by consecutive measurements of changes in nasal cavity volumes by acoustic rhinometry. Swelling of the mucosa during cooling and an almost maximal shrinkage of the mucosa during heating were indicated by respectively a decrease and an increase in nasal cavity volumes. The reactions were determined predominantly by the whole body thermal balance, but were also influenced by the temperature of the inhaled air, either enhanced, reduced or temporarily reversed. The greatest change occurred in the nasal cavity, left or right, which differed most from the final state at the beginning of exposure due to the actual state of nasal cycle.
Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F.; Hagemann, S.; Lorenz, R.; Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.
Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level. We investigate the role of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks for this response based on multimodel experiments for the 21st century with either interactive or fixed (late 20th century mean seasonal cycle) soil moisture. We analyze changes in the hottest days in each year in both sets of experiments, relate them to the global mean temperature increase, and investigate processes leading to these changes. We find that soil moisture-temperature feedbacks significantly contribute to the amplified warming of the hottest days compared to that of global mean temperature. This contribution reaches more than 70% in Central Europe and Central North America. Soil moisture trends are more important for this response than short-term soil moisture variability. These results are relevant for reducing uncertainties in regional temperature projections.
Pascal, M.; Pirard, P.; Medina, S.; Viso, A.C.; Caserio-Schonemann, C.; Beaudeau, P.
Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Health surveillance Systems can be used 1) to trigger early warning Systems, 2) to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, 3) to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and 4) to evaluate these measures. InVS proposed a method to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for strengthened health surveillance Systems, taking into account environment, individual and social behaviors, demography and health state. Extreme climate events are illustrated here. These events have short, medium and long term impacts that could be reduced through efficient prevention. To better understand these impacts and orientate prevention, interdisciplinary studies will be needed. (authors)
Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Gao, Huilin
The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.
Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff
Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)
Hein, Daanen; Vonk, L.A.
Whole body volume changes due to sweat loss after exercise in the heat are well documented, but little is known about the relative contribution of the torso and extremities to these volume changes. It is the purpose of this study to quantify these effects. Therefore, seven healthy male subjects were
Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems...... are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored...
Igamov, S.B.; Santullaev, A.; Yarmukhamedov, R.
Full text: A reliable estimation of rates of different nuclear astrophysical reactions A(α,γ)B responsible for light elements abundance is one of the most actual problem of the modern nuclear astrophysics. Solution of this problem is impossible without obtaining of rather low energy cross sections (or equivalently its astrophysical S-factor (AS) S Aa (E)) for such reactions as 3 He(α,γ) 8 B, 7 Be(p,γ) 8 B, etc. In the present work modified two-body potential approach allowing to determine both the asymptotic normalization constant (ANC) of the overlap integral for the bound wave function f the nucleus B in the (A+α)-channel C Aα;1.j (or respective nuclear vertex constant for the virtual decay B→A+α, where 1(j) is orbital (total) angular momentum of a particle α in the nucleus B=(A+α), and the AS S Aα (E) at the stellar energies (E≤25 keV) from an analysis of the analysis of the S exp (E) for the peripheral direct capture reaction A(α,γ)B is developed. The method involves two additional conditions that verify the peripheral character of the reaction under consideration and on it S(E) is expressed i the terms of ANC C Aα;1.j as Z Aα;1.j =C Aα;1.j 2 /b l +j 2 , where b lj is the single-particle ANC for the wave function of the bound B=(A+α) state calculated within the shell model using the phenomenological Woods-Saxon potential with the geometric parameters (a radius r 0 and a diffuseness a). The value of b lj strongly changes as a function (r 0 ,a)-pair is determined by variation of values of the parameters r 0 , and a in a wide physical acceptable range. The present method allows one to remove the model dependence of the calculated direct on S(E) on the geometric parameters r 0 , and a both for the two-body bound (A+α) state and the Aα-scattering state in minimum. The developed method has been applied to the analysis of the experimental S exp (E) of the direct capture 3 He(α,γ) 7 Be and 7 Be(p,γ) 8 B reactions at extremely low energies. By
Tambo, Ernest; Duo-Quan, Wang; Zhou, Xiao-Nong
China still depends on coal for more than 60% of its power despite big investments in the process of shifting to nuclear, solar and wind power renewable energy resources alignment with Paris climate change agreement (Paris CCA). Chinese government through the Communist Party Central Committee (CPCC) ascribes great importance and commitment to Paris CCA legacy and history landmark implementation at all levels. As the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter, China has embarked on "SMART" pollution and climate changes programs and measures to reduce coal-fired power plants to less than 50% in the next five years include: new China model of energy policies commitment on CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions reductions to less than 20% non-fossil energy use by 2030 without undermining their economic growth, newly introduced electric vehicles transportation benefits, interactive and sustained air quality index (AQI) monitoring systems, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel economic activities, revision of energy price reforms and renewable energy to less energy efficient technologies development. Furthermore, ongoing CPCC improved environmental initiatives, implemented strict regulations and penalties on local companies and firms' pollution production management, massive infrastructures such as highways to reduce CO2 expansion of seven regional emissions trading markets and programs for CO2 emissions and other pollutants are being documented. Maximizing on the centralized nature of the China's government, implemented Chinese pollution, climate changes mitigation and adaptation initiatives, "SMART" strategies and credible measures are promising. A good and practical example is the interactive and dynamic website and database covering 367 Chinese cities and providing real time information on environmental and pollution emissions AQI. Also, water quality index (WQI), radiation and nuclear safety monitoring and management systems over time and space. These are ongoing Chinese
Annesi, James J.; Tennant, Gisèle A.; Mareno, Nicole
A lack of satisfaction with one's body is common among women with obesity, often prompting unhealthy "dieting." Beyond typically slow improvements in weight and body composition, behavioral factors might also affect change in body satisfaction. Age and race/ethnicity (African American vs. White) might moderate such change. Obese women (N…
Schulze, Matthias B; Fung, Teresa T; Manson, Joann E; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B
Our objective was to examine the association between adherence to dietary patterns and weight change in women. Women (51,670, 26 to 46 years old) in the Nurses' Health Study II were followed from 1991 to 1999. Dietary intake and body weight were ascertained in 1991, 1995, and 1999. A Western pattern, characterized by high intakes of red and processed meats, refined grains, sweets and desserts, and potatoes, and a prudent pattern, characterized by high intakes of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, fish, poultry, and salad dressing, were identified with principal component analysis, and associations between patterns and change in body weight were estimated. Women who increased their Western pattern score had greater weight gain (multivariate adjusted means, 4.55 kg for 1991 to 1995 and 2.86 kg for 1995 to 1999) than women who decreased their Western pattern score (2.70 and 1.37 kg for the two time periods), adjusting for baseline lifestyle and dietary confounders and changes in confounders over time (p < 0.001 for both time periods). Furthermore, among women who increased their prudent pattern score, weight gain was smaller (multivariate-adjusted means, 1.93 kg for 1991 to 1995 and 0.66 kg for 1995 to 1999) than among women who decreased their prudent pattern score (4.83 and 3.35 kg for the two time periods) (p < 0.001). The largest weight gain between 1991 and 1995 and between 1995 and 1999 was observed among women who decreased their prudent pattern score while increasing their Western pattern score (multivariate adjusted means, 6.80 and 4.99 kg), whereas it was smallest for the opposite change in patterns (0.87 and -0.64 kg) (p < 0.001). Adoption of a Western dietary pattern is associated with larger weight gain in women, whereas a prudent dietary pattern may facilitate weight maintenance.
Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.
Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.
Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.
Using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust 'hotspot' regions of high probability of peak anomalous - i.e. with respect to the seasonal cycle - water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/mon). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hotspot regions to GRACE results, and that most exceptions are located in the Tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020 it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e. combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE-FO. J. Kusche et al. (2016): Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted online, doi:10.1002/2016GL069538
Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and
Full Text Available As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production, but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended.
Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa
Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen
Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical
Taylor, Rachael W; Williams, Sheila M; Dawson, Anna M; Haszard, Jillian J; Brown, Deirdre A
To determine what factors are associated with parental motivation to change body weight in overweight children. Cross-sectional study. Dunedin, New Zealand. Two hundred and seventy-one children aged 4-8 years, recruited in primary and secondary care, were identified as overweight (BMI ≥ 85th percentile) after screening. Parents completed questionnaires on demographics; motivation to improve diet, physical activity and weight; perception and concern about weight; parenting; and social desirability, prior to being informed that their child was overweight. Additional measures of physical activity (accelerometry), dietary intake and child behaviour (questionnaire) were obtained after feedback. Although all children were overweight, only 42% of parents perceived their child to be so, with 36% indicating any concern. Very few parents (n 25, 8%) were actively trying to change the child's weight. Greater motivation to change weight was observed for girls compared with boys (P = 0.001), despite no sex difference in BMI Z-score (P = 0.374). Motivation was not associated with most demographic variables, social desirability, dietary intake, parenting or child behaviour. Increased motivation to change the child's weight was observed for heavier children (P < 0.001), those who were less physically active (P = 0.002) and more sedentary (P < 0.001), and in parents who were more concerned about their child's weight (P < 0.001) or who used greater food restriction (P < 0.001). Low levels of parental motivation to change overweight in young children highlight the urgent need to determine how best to improve motivation to initiate change.
Wang, Xue; Casadio, Maura; Weber, Kenneth A; Mussa-Ivaldi, Ferdinando A; Parrish, Todd B
The purpose of this study is to identify white matter microstructure changes following bilateral upper extremity motor skill training to increase our understanding of learning-induced structural plasticity and enhance clinical strategies in physical rehabilitation. Eleven healthy subjects performed two visuo-spatial motor training tasks over 9 sessions (2-3 sessions per week). Subjects controlled a cursor with bilateral simultaneous movements of the shoulders and upper arms using a body machine interface. Before the start and within 2days of the completion of training, whole brain diffusion tensor MR imaging data were acquired. Motor training increased fractional anisotropy (FA) values in the posterior and anterior limbs of the internal capsule, the corona radiata, and the body of the corpus callosum by 4.19% on average indicating white matter microstructure changes induced by activity-dependent modulation of axon number, axon diameter, or myelin thickness. These changes may underlie the functional reorganization associated with motor skill learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Walls, Susan C.; Barichivich, William J.; Brown, Mary E.
The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.
Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min
River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.
Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Cahill, Sara; Mussap, Alexander J
We explored the extent to which changes in emotional states following exposure to images of idealized bodies predict unhealthy body change attitudes and behaviors in women and men, and whether particular psychological traits mediate these effects. One hundred thirty-three women and 93 men were assessed for unhealthy attitudes and behaviors related to body weight and muscles using the Eating Disorder Inventory-2 (EDI-2), the Obligatory Exercise Questionnaire, and the strategies to increase muscles subscale of the Body Change Inventory. Psychological traits assessed included body dissatisfaction (EDI-2), internalization of the thin/athletic ideal (Sociocultural Attitudes Towards Appearance Questionnaire-3), body comparison (Body Comparison Scale), self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Inventory), depression (Beck Depression Inventory-II), and identity confusion (Self-Concept Clarity Scale). Participants were then exposed to photographs of thin female models and muscular male models, and visual analogue scales were used to measure changes in postexposure state body dissatisfaction, anger, anxiety, and depression. Postexposure increases in state anger, anxiety, depression, and body dissatisfaction correlated with drive for thinness and disordered eating symptomatology in women, while postexposure increases in state body dissatisfaction correlated with muscle development in men. Analyses revealed that internalization and body comparison mediated these relationships, with trait body dissatisfaction, trait depression, self-esteem, and self-concept/identity confusion serving as mediators for women only. These results are indicative of gender differences in: (a) reactions to idealized bodies; (b) psychological traits that predispose individuals to experience these reactions; and (c) types of body change behavior that are associated with these reactions.
Mans, Christoph; Drees, Randi; Sladky, Kurt K; Hatt, Jean-Michel; Kircher, Patrick R
To determine the effects of body position and extension of the neck and extremities on CT measurements of ventilated lung volume in red-eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans). Prospective crossover-design study. 14 adult red-eared slider turtles. CT was performed on turtles in horizontal ventral recumbent and vertical left lateral recumbent, right lateral recumbent, and caudal recumbent body positions. In sedated turtles, evaluations were performed in horizontal ventral recumbent body position with and without extension of the neck and extremities. Lung volumes were estimated from helical CT images with commercial software. Effects of body position, extremity and neck extension, sedation, body weight, and sex on lung volume were analyzed. Mean ± SD volume of dependent lung tissue was significantly decreased in vertical left lateral (18.97 ± 14.65 mL), right lateral (24.59 ± 19.16 mL), and caudal (9.23 ± 12.13 mL) recumbent positions, compared with the same region for turtles in horizontal ventral recumbency (48.52 ± 20.08 mL, 50.66 ± 18.08 mL, and 31.95 ± 15.69 mL, respectively). Total lung volume did not differ among positions because of compensatory increases in nondependent lung tissue. Extension of the extremities and neck significantly increased total lung volume (127.94 ± 35.53 mL), compared with that in turtles with the head, neck, and extremities withdrawn into the shell (103.24 ± 40.13 mL). Vertical positioning of red-eared sliders significantly affected lung volumes and could potentially affect interpretation of radiographs obtained in these positions. Extension of the extremities and neck resulted in the greatest total lung volume.
Williams, D S Blaise; Green, Douglas H; Wurzinger, Brian
Both forefoot strike shod (FFS) and barefoot (BF) running styles result in different mechanics when compared to rearfoot strike (RFS) shod running. Additionally, running mechanics of FFS and BF running are similar to one another. Comparing the mechanical changes occurring in each of these patterns is necessary to understand potential benefits and risks of these running styles. The authors hypothesized that FFS and BF conditions would result in increased sagittal plane joint angles at initial contact and that FFS and BF conditions would demonstrate a shift in sagittal plane joint power from the knee to the ankle when compared to the RFS condition. Finally, total lower extremity power absorption will be least in BF and greatest in the RFS shod condition. The study included 10 male and 10 female RFS runners who completed 3-dimensional running analysis in 3 conditions: shod with RFS, shod with FFS, and BF. Variables were the angles of plantarflexion, knee flexion, and hip flexion at initial contact and peak sagittal plane joint power at the hip, knee, and ankle during stance phase. Running with a FFS pattern and BF resulted in significantly greater plantarflexion and significantly less negative knee power (absorption) when compared to shod RFS condition. FFS condition runners landed in the most plantarflexion and demonstrated the most peak ankle power absorption and lowest knee power absorption between the 3 conditions. BF and FFS conditions demonstrated decreased total lower extremity power absorption compared to the shod RFS condition but did not differ from one another. BF and FFS running result in reduced total lower extremity power, hip power and knee power and a shift of power absorption from the knee to the ankle. Alterations associated with BF running patterns are present in a FFS pattern when wearing shoes. Additionally, both patterns result in increased demand at the foot and ankle as compared to the knee.
Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Johnson, Gary M.; Washington, Warren M.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) in partnership with the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) held a workshop on the challenges in climate change science and the role of computing at the extreme scale, November 6-7, 2008, in Bethesda, Maryland. At the workshop, participants identified the scientific challenges facing the field of climate science and outlined the research directions of highest priority that should be pursued to meet these challenges. Representatives from the national and international climate change research community as well as representatives from the high-performance computing community attended the workshop. This group represented a broad mix of expertise. Of the 99 participants, 6 were from international institutions. Before the workshop, each of the four panels prepared a white paper, which provided the starting place for the workshop discussions. These four panels of workshop attendees devoted to their efforts the following themes: Model Development and Integrated Assessment; Algorithms and Computational Environment; Decadal Predictability and Prediction; Data, Visualization, and Computing Productivity. The recommendations of the panels are summarized in the body of this report.
Gitlin, Alicyn R; Sthultz, Christopher M; Bowker, Matthew A; Stumpf, Stacy; Paxton, Kristina L; Kennedy, Karla; Muñoz, Axhel; Bailey, Joseph K; Whitham, Thomas G
Understanding patterns of plant population mortality during extreme weather events is important to conservation planners because the frequency of such events is expected to increase, creating the need to integrate climatic uncertainty into management. Dominant plants provide habitat and ecosystem structure, so changes in their distribution can be expected to have cascading effects on entire communities. Observing areas that respond quickly to climate fluctuations provides foresight into future ecological changes and will help prioritize conservation efforts. We investigated patterns of mortality in six dominant plant species during a drought in the southwestern United States. We quantified population mortality for each species across its regional distribution and tested hypotheses to identify ecological stress gradients for each species. Our results revealed three major patterns: (1) dominant species from diverse habitat types (i.e., riparian, chaparral, and low- to high-elevation forests) exhibited significant mortality, indicating that the effects of drought were widespread; (2) average mortality differed among dominant species (one-seed juniper[Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.] 3.3%; manzanita[Arctostaphylos pungens Kunth], 14.6%; quaking aspen[Populus tremuloides Michx.], 15.4%; ponderosa pine[Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson], 15.9%; Fremont cottonwood[Populus fremontii S. Wats.], 20.7%; and pinyon pine[Pinus edulis Engelm.], 41.4%); (3) all dominant species showed localized patterns of very high mortality (24-100%) consistent with water stress gradients. Land managers should plan for climatic uncertainty by promoting tree recruitment in rare habitat types, alleviating unnatural levels of competition on dominant plants, and conserving sites across water stress gradients. High-stress sites, such as those we examined, have conservation value as barometers of change and because they may harbor genotypes that are adapted to climatic extremes.
Mat Dzahir, M A; Nobutomo, T; Yamamoto, S I
Recently, robot assisted therapy devices are increasingly used for spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation in assisting handicapped patients to regain their impaired movements. Assistive robotic systems may not be able to cure or fully compensate impairments, but it should be able to assist certain impaired functions and ease movements. In this study, the control system of lower extremity orthosis for the body weight support gait training system which implements pneumatic artificial muscle (PAM) is proposed. The hip and knee joint angles of the gait orthosis system are controlled based on the PAM coordinates information from the simulation. This information provides the contraction data for the mono- and bi-articular PAMs that are arranged as posterior and anterior actuators to simulate the human walking motion. The proposed control system estimates the actuators' contraction as a function of hip and knee joint angles. Based on the contraction model obtained, input pressures for each actuators are measured. The control system are performed at different gait cycles and two PMA settings for the mono- and bi-articular actuators are evaluated in this research. The results showed that the system was able to achieve the maximum muscle moment at the joints, and able to perform the heel contact movement. This explained that the antagonistic mono- and bi-articular actuators worked effectively.
van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees
P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed
Hovey, Kate; Foland, Jody; Foley, John T.; Kniffin, Mike; Bailey, JoEllen
Body image is an ever-changing phenomenon that has a profound effect on women's quality of life. Research related to body image is expansive, but few researchers have focused on how outdoor education may influence body image. This study examines predictors of change in body image of female participants of an outdoor education program. Twenty-eight…
Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.
Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika
With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.
Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.
Full Text Available This paper analyses the morphological effects of extreme floods (recurrence interval >100 years and examines which parameters best describe the width changes due to erosion based on 5 affected alpine gravel bed rivers in Austria. The research was based on vertical aerial photos of the rivers before and after extreme floods, hydrodynamic numerical models and cross sectional measurements supported by LiDAR data of the rivers. Average width ratios (width after/before the flood were calculated and correlated with different hydraulic parameters (specific stream power, shear stress, flow area, specific discharge. Depending on the geomorphological boundary conditions of the different rivers, a mean width ratio between 1.12 (Lech River and 3.45 (Trisanna River was determined on the reach scale. The specific stream power (SSP best predicted the mean width ratios of the rivers especially on the reach scale and sub reach scale. On the local scale more parameters have to be considered to define the "minimum morphological spatial demand of rivers", which is a crucial parameter for addressing and managing flood hazards and should be used in hazard zone plans and spatial planning.
Herrmann, T.; Friedrich, S.; Jochem, I.; Eberhardt, H.J.; Koch, R.; Knorr, A.
The determination of different peripheral blood parameters aimed at the study of side effects on the hematological cellular system following a 5 - 8 Gy single large dose half-body irradiation in 20 patients. Compared to the initial values the leukocytes between the 6. and 14., the thrombocytes between the 14. and 21. postirradiation day as well as the lymphocytes between 3 hours and 4 weeks postirradiation were significantly decreased without exhibiting complications such as hemorrhages or infections. The hemoglobin, hematocrit and reticulocyte values revealed but a slight decrease normalized within a 28 days postirradiation period. Transfusions were necessary when a tumor-caused anemia was present prior to irradiation. Changes in serum activity of aminotransferases and lactate dehydrogenase occured during the first hours after irradiation and were due to enzyme release from destroyed tumor cells
Full Text Available Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of “considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC” can be realized by the year 2025.
Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L
Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.
Oyama, J.; Platt, W. T.; Holland, V. B.
Deep-body temperature was monitored continuously by implant biotelemetry in unrestrained rats before, during, and after exposure to prolonged and almost continuous centrifugation. Rats subjected to centrifugation for the first time at various G loads ranging up to 2.5 G show a rapid and significant fall in temperature which is sustained below normal levels for periods as long as 3 days. The magnitude of the temperature fall and the recovery time were generally proportional to the G load imposed. The initial fall and recovery of body temperature closely parallels the decrease in food consumption and to a lesser degree the decrease in body mass experienced by centrifuged rats. After exposure to 2 weeks of centrifugation, rats show either no change or only a small transient increase in temperature when decelerated to a lower G level or when returned to normal gravity. Rats repeatedly exposed to centrifugation consistently showed a smaller temperature response compared to the initial exposure. Implant temperature biotelemetry has been found to be a sensitive, reliable, and extremely useful technique for assessing the initial stress of centrifugation and in monitoring the time course of recovery and acclimation of rats to increase as well as*decrease G.
Guimberteau, M; Ronchail, J; Lengaigne, M; Sultan, B; Drapeau, G; Espinoza, J C; Polcher, J; Guyot, J-L; Ducharne, A; Ciais, P
Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35
Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate
Full Text Available To reveal the revolution law of hydrologic extremes in the next 50 years and analyze the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes, the following main works were carried on: firstly, the long duration (15 d, 30 d, and 60 d rainfall extremes according to observed time-series and forecast time-series by dynamical climate model product (BCC-CSM-1.1 were deduced, respectively, on the basis that the quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes was conducted; secondly, the SWAT model was used to deduce design flood with the input of design rainfall for the next 50 years. On this basis, quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on long duration flood volume extremes was conducted. It indicates that (1 the value of long duration rainfall extremes for given probabilities (1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years and (2 long duration flood volume extremes of given probabilities of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years. The conclusions may provide technical supports for basin level planning of flood control and hydropower production.
Jensen, Elizabeth T; van der Burg, Jelske W; O'Shea, Thomas M; Joseph, Robert M; Allred, Elizabeth N; Heeren, Tim; Leviton, Alan; Kuban, Karl C K
OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between maternal prepregnancy body mass index and adequacy of pregnancy weight gain in relation to neurocognitive function in school-aged children born extremely preterm. STUDY DESIGN: Study participants were 535 ten-year-old children enrolled previously in the
Carvalho, P D; Souza, A H; Amundson, M C; Hackbart, K S; Fuenzalida, M J; Herlihy, M M; Ayres, H; Dresch, A R; Vieira, L M; Guenther, J N; Grummer, R R; Fricke, P M; Shaver, R D; Wiltbank, M C
The relationship between energy status and fertility in dairy cattle was retrospectively analyzed by comparing fertility with body condition score (BCS) near artificial insemination (AI; experiment 1), early postpartum changes in BCS (experiment 2), and postpartum changes in body weight (BW; experiment 3). To reduce the effect of cyclicity status, all cows were synchronized with Double-Ovsynch protocol before timed AI. In experiment 1, BCS of lactating dairy cows (n = 1,103) was evaluated near AI. Most cows (93%) were cycling at initiation of the breeding Ovsynch protocol (first GnRH injection). A lower percentage pregnant to AI (P/AI) was found in cows with lower (≤ 2.50) versus higher (≥ 2.75) BCS (40.4 vs. 49.2%). In experiment 2, lactating dairy cows on 2 commercial dairies (n = 1,887) were divided by BCS change from calving until the third week postpartum. Overall, P/AI at 70-d pregnancy diagnosis differed dramatically by BCS change and was least for cows that lost BCS, intermediate for cows that maintained BCS, and greatest for cows that gained BCS [22.8% (180/789), 36.0% (243/675), and 78.3% (331/423), respectively]. Surprisingly, a difference existed between farms with BCS change dramatically affecting P/AI on one farm and no effect on the other farm. In experiment 3, lactating dairy cows (n = 71) had BW measured weekly from the first to ninth week postpartum and then had superovulation induced using a modified Double-Ovsynch protocol. Cows were divided into quartiles (Q) by percentage of BW change (Q1 = least change; Q4 = most change) from calving until the third week postpartum. No effect was detected of quartile on number of ovulations, total embryos collected, or percentage of oocytes that were fertilized; however, the percentage of fertilized oocytes that were transferable embryos was greater for cows in Q1, Q2, and Q3 than Q4 (83.8, 75.2, 82.6, and 53.2%, respectively). In addition, percentage of degenerated embryos was least for cows in Q1, Q2
Carvalho, P. D.; Souza, A. H.; Amundson, M. C.; Hackbart, K. S.; Fuenzalida, M. J.; Herlihy, M. M.; Ayres, H.; Dresch, A. R.; Vieira, L. M.; Guenther, J. N.; Grummer, R. R.; Fricke, P. M.; Shaver, R. D.; Wiltbank, M. C.
The relationship between energy status and fertility in dairy cattle was retrospectively analyzed by comparing fertility with body condition score (BCS) near artificial insemination (AI; experiment 1), early postpartum changes in BCS (experiment 2), and postpartum changes in body weight (BW; experiment 3). To reduce the effect of cyclicity status, all cows were synchronized with Double-Ovsynch protocol before timed AI. In experiment 1, BCS of lactating dairy cows (n = 1,103) was evaluated near AI. Most cows (93%) were cycling at initiation of the breeding Ovsynch protocol (first GnRH injection). A lower percentage pregnant to AI (P/AI) was found in cows with lower (≤2.50) versus higher (≥2.75) BCS (40.4 vs. 49.2%). In experiment 2, lactating dairy cows on 2 commercial dairies (n = 1,887) were divided by BCS change from calving until the third week postpartum. Overall, P/AI at 70-d pregnancy diagnosis differed dramatically by BCS change and was least for cows that lost BCS, intermediate for cows that maintained BCS, and greatest for cows that gained BCS [22.8% (180/789), 36.0% (243/675), and 78.3% (331/423), respectively]. Surprisingly, a difference existed between farms with BCS change dramatically affecting P/AI on one farm and no effect on the other farm. In experiment 3, lactating dairy cows (n = 71) had BW measured weekly from the first to ninth week postpartum and then had superovulation induced using a modified Double-Ovsynch protocol. Cows were divided into quartiles (Q) by percentage of BW change (Q1 = least change; Q4 = most change) from calving until the third week postpartum. No effect was detected of quartile on number of ovulations, total embryos collected, or percentage of oocytes that were fertilized; however, the percentage of fertilized oocytes that were transferable embryos was greater for cows in Q1, Q2, and Q3 than Q4 (83.8, 75.2, 82.6, and 53.2%, respectively). In addition, percentage of degenerated embryos was least for cows in Q1, Q2, and
Bigham, K.; Kelley, D. S.; Solomon, E. A.; Delaney, J. R.
Two highly active methane hydrate seeps have been visited over a 7-year period as part of the construction and operation of NSF's Ocean Observatory Initiative's Regional Cable Array at Southern Hydrate Ridge. The site is located 90 km west of Newport, Oregon, at a water depth of 800 m. The seeps, Einstein's Grotto (OOI instrument deployment site) and Smokey Tavern (alternate site to the north), have been visited yearly from 2010 to 2017 with ROVs. Additionally, a digital still camera deployed from 2014 to 2017 at Einstein's Grotto, has been documenting the profound morphologic and biological changes at this site. A cabled pressure sensor, Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, hydrophone, seismometer array, and uncabled fluid samplers have also been operational at the site for the duration of the camera's deployment. During this time, Einstein's Grotto has evolved from a gentle mound with little venting, to a vigorously bubbling pit bounded by a near vertical wall. Early on bubble emissions blew significant amounts of sediment into the water column and thick Beggiatoa mats coverd the mound. Most recently the face of the pit has collapsed, although bubble plumes are still emitted from the site. The Smokey Tavern site has undergone more extreme changes. Similar to Einstein's Grotto it was first characterized by gentle hummocks with dispersed bacterial mats. In subsequent years, it developed an extremely rugged, elongated collapsed area with vertical walls and jets of methane bubbles rising from small pits near the base of the collapse zone. Meter-across nearly sediment-free blocks of methane hydrate were exposed on the surface and in the walls of the collapse zone. In 2016, this area was unrecognizable with a much more subdued topography, and weak venting of bubbles. Exposed methane hydrate was not visible. From these observations new evolutionary models for methane seeps are being developed for Southern Hydrate Ridge.
Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick
Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily
Costello, Joseph T; Baker, Philip R A; Minett, Geoffrey M; Bieuzen, Francois; Stewart, Ian B; Bleakley, Chris
Recovery strategies are often used with the intention of preventing or minimising muscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts.The searches were run in August 2015. We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity. We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64
Harnish, Stacy; Meinzer, Marcus; Trinastic, Jonathan; Fitzgerald, David; Page, Stephen
To formally assess changes in language, affected UE movement, and motor functional activation changes via functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) following participation in motor therapy without any accompanying language intervention. Pre-post case series. Five subjects with stroke exhibiting chronic, stable UE hemiparesis. The upper extremity section of the Fugl-Meyer (FM), the Western Aphasia Battery (WAB), and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), administered during performance of an affected UE motor task. All subjects were administered six weeks of repetitive task specific training (RTP), performed for approximately 2.5 hours per day, split into two sessions. For the first four weeks of the intervention period, RTP was administered every weekday, whereas, for the subsequent two weeks, RTP was administered 3 days/week. Epidural cortical stimulation was co-administered with the RTP via an electrode array and implanted pulse generator. For all sessions, one subject worked with a single therapist. Four weeks before and four weeks after the intervention period, all subjects were administered the FM, WAB, and fMRI. Three of the subjects exhibited clinically significant language changes on the WAB. These individuals exhibited the largest motor changes as measured by the FM. Functional MRI revealed distinct motor activation patterns in these subjects, characterized by more strongly right lateralized focal BOLD activity or a shift in activation toward the right hemisphere. Language changes appear to co-occur with motor changes after UE RTP. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of these findings may lead to more efficient and synergistic rehabilitative therapy delivery.
C. D. Evans
Full Text Available This study assesses the major chemical processes leading to acid extremes in a small, moorland stream in mid-Wales, UK, which has been monitored since 1979. Results suggest that base cation (mainly calcium dilution, the "sea-salt effect", and elevated nitrate pulses, are the major causes of seasonal/episodic minima in acid neutralising capacity (ANC, and that the relative importance of these drivers has remained approximately constant during 25 years of decreasing acid deposition and associated long-term chemical recovery. Many of the chemical variations causing short-term reductions in stream acidity, particularly base cation dilution and organic acid increases, are closely related to changes in water-flowpath and therefore to stream discharge. Changes in the observed pH-discharge relationship over time indicate that high-flow pH has increased more rapidly than mean-flow pH, and therefore that episodes have decreased in magnitude since 1980. However a two-box application of the dynamic model MAGIC, whilst reproducing this trend, suggests that it will not persist in the long term, with mean ANC continuing to increase until 2100, but the ANC of the upper soil (the source of relatively acid water during high-flow episodes stabilising close to zero beyond 2030. With climate change predicted to lead to an increase in maximum flows in the latter half of the century, high-flow related acid episodes may actually become more rather than less severe in the long term, although the model suggests that this effect may be small. Two other predicted climatic changes could also detrimentally impact on acid episodes: increased severity of winter "sea-salt" episodes due to higher wind speeds during winter storms; and larger sulphate pulses due to oxidation of reduced sulphur held in organic soils, during more extreme summer droughts. At the Gwy, the near-coastal location and relatively small extent of peat soils suggest that sea-salt episodes may have the
M. T. Taye
Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.
The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.
Kim, Kyunghoon; Lee, Sukmin; Lee, Kyoungbo
[Purpose] The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of progressive body weight supported treadmill forward and backward walking training (PBWSTFBWT), progressive body weight supported treadmill forward walking training (PBWSTFWT), progressive body weight supported treadmill backward walking training (PBWSTBWT), on stroke patients' affected side lower extremity's walking ability. [Subjects and Methods] A total of 36 chronic stroke patients were divided into three groups with 12 subjects in each group. Each of the groups performed one of the progressive body weight supported treadmill training methods for 30 minute, six times per week for three weeks, and then received general physical therapy without any other intervention until the follow-up tests. For the assessment of the affected side lower extremity's walking ability, step length of the affected side, stance phase of the affected side, swing phase of the affected side, single support of the affected side, and step time of the affected side were measured using optogait and the symmetry index. [Results] In the within group comparisons, all the three groups showed significant differences between before and after the intervention and in the comparison of the three groups, the PBWSTFBWT group showed more significant differences in all of the assessed items than the other two groups. [Conclusion] In the present study progressive body weight supported treadmill training was performed in an environment in which the subjects were actually walked, and PBWSTFBWT was more effective at efficiently training stroke patients' affected side lower extremity's walking ability.
Pichierri, Gabriele; Morbidelli, Alessandro; Lai, Dong
Context. It is well known that asteroids and comets fall into the Sun. Metal pollution of white dwarfs and transient spectroscopic signatures of young stars like β-Pic provide growing evidence that extra solar planetesimals can attain extreme orbital eccentricities and fall into their parent stars. Aims: We aim to develop a general, implementable, semi-analytical theory of secular eccentricity excitation of small bodies (planetesimals) in mean motion resonances with an eccentric planet valid for arbitrary values of the eccentricities and including the short-range force due to General Relativity. Methods: Our semi-analytic model for the restricted planar three-body problem does not make use of series expansion and therefore is valid for any eccentricity value and semi-major axis ratio. The model is based on the application of the adiabatic principle, which is valid when the precession period of the longitude of pericentre of the planetesimal is much longer than the libration period in the mean motion resonance. In resonances of order larger than 1 this is true except for vanishingly small eccentricities. We provide prospective users with a Mathematica notebook with implementation of the model allowing direct use. Results: We confirm that the 4:1 mean motion resonance with a moderately eccentric (e' ≲ 0.1) planet is the most powerful one to lift the eccentricity of planetesimals from nearly circular orbits to star-grazing ones. However, if the planet is too eccentric, we find that this resonance is unable to pump the planetesimal's eccentricity to a very high value. The inclusion of the General Relativity effect imposes a condition on the mass of the planet to drive the planetesimals into star-grazing orbits. For a planetesimal at 1 AU around a solar mass star (or white dwarf), we find a threshold planetary mass of about 17 Earth masses. We finally derive an analytical formula for this critical mass. Conclusions: Planetesimals can easily fall into the central star
Stadtmann, H.; Grimbergen, T.W.M.; Figel, M.; Romero, A.M.; Mcwhan, A.F.
The EURADOS (European Radiation Dosimetry Group) working group (WG2) on Harmonisation of Individual Monitoring in Europe has shown that intercomparisons are fundamental for harmonisation of individual monitoring. As a result of these considerations, EURADOS started to prepare a series of continuous intercomparisons for individual monitoring services (IMS) in Europe. EURADOS has now successfully executed two intercomparison exercises, one for whole body dosemeters (2008) and one for extremity dosemeters (2009). Both exercises were performed without external funding, all costs being covered by the participants’ fees. More than 120 (!) different – mainly passive – dosimetry systems were tested from all over Europe until now and the results were analysed and compared. Although scientific studies were not the primary objective of these exercises specific additional information about the tested systems supplied by the participants for statistical analysis allows a detailed analysis of these results with respect to different parameters like dosemeter type, detector material, filter thickness or others design parameters. The influence of such parameters on the response values of the dosemeters is analysed and discussed in this paper. Both energy response as well as directional response for beta and photon radiation are considered. The influence of different design parameters e.g. detector material, is analysed by comparing the frequency distribution of the response values for different dosemeter groups. Pronounced differences for different detector materials (LiF:Mg,Ti, LiF:Mg,Cu,P and Li 2 B 4 O 7 /CaSO 4 ) were found. The paper gives a comprehensive overview on the performance of various European dosimetry services and the influence of the dosemeter design on the resulting response values.
Sheean, Patricia M.; Hoskins, Kent; Stolley, Melinda
Body composition changes cannot be precisely captured using body weight or body mass index measures. Therefore, the primary purpose of this review was to characterize the patterns of body composition change in females treated for breast cancer including only studies that utilize imaging technologies to quantify adipose tissue and lean body mass (LBM). We reviewed PubMed for studies published between 1971–2012 involving females diagnosed with breast cancer where computed axial tomography (CAT)...
Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan
change method for extreme events, a weather generator combined with a disaggregation method and a climate analogue method. All three methods rely on different assumptions and use different outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). The results of the three methods point towards an increase...... in extreme precipitation but the magnitude of the change varies depending on the RCM used and the spatial location. In general, a similar mean change is obtained for the three methods. This adds confidence in the results as each method uses different information from the RCMs. The results of this study...
Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.
As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect
Anthony, S.; Ouden, L.D.; Brand, R.; Verloove-Vanhorick, P.; Gravenhorst, J.B.
Objective: To evaluate changes in obstetrical and neonatal care for very preterm and extremely preterm infants between 1983 and 1995 in The Netherlands and to evaluate the effect of those changes. Study design: Data on all very preterm or VLBW infants from the linked national obstetrical and
Campo, Salvatore; Nastasi, Giancarlo; D'Ascola, Angela; Campo, Giuseppe M.; Avenoso, Angela; Traina, Paola; Calatroni, Alberto; Burrascano, Emanuele; Ferlazzo, Alida; Lupidi, Giulio; Gabbianelli, Rosita; Falcioni, Giancarlo
In order to gain more knowledge on the stress responses of gilhead seabream (Sparus aurata) under extreme conditions, this study investigated the functional properties of the hemoglobin system and globin gene expression under hypoxia and low salinity. The oxygen affinity for the two hemoglobin components present inside the S. aurata erythrocyte was practically identical as was the influence of protons and organic phosphates (Root effect). The quantification of S. aurata hemoglobin fractions performed by HPLC and the data on gene expression of globin chains assayed by PCR indicate that under hypoxia and low salinity there is a change in the ratio between the two different hemoglobin components. The result indicating that the distinct hemoglobins present in S. aurata erythrocyte have almost identical functional properties, does not explain the adaptive response (expression change) following exposure of the animal to hypoxia or low salinity on the basis of their function as oxygen transporter. We hypothesize that other parallel biological functions that the hemoglobin molecule is known to display within the erythrocyte are involved in adaptive molecular mechanisms. The autoxidation-reduction cycle of hemoglobin could be involved in the response to particular living conditions
Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin
This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...
Cohn, S.H.; Vartsky, D.; Vaswani, A.N.; Sawitsky, A.; Rai, K.; Gartenhaus, W.; Yasumura, S.; Ellis, K.J.
The effects of combined nutritional support (parenteral, enteral, and oral) were measured in cancer patients unable to maintain normal alimentation.Changes in body composition were quantified by measurement of total body levels of nitrogen, potassium, water, and fat. The protein-calorie intake of the patients was also evaluated by dietary survey (4-day recall). Standard anthropometric and biochemical measurements for nutritional assessment were obtained for comparison. The dietary evaluation indicated that the dietary supplementation for all patients was more than adequate to meet their energy requirements. Determination of body composition indicated that change in body weight was equal to the sum of the changes in body protein, total body water, and total body fat. Information on the nature of the tissue gained was obtained by comparison of body composition data with the ratio of protein:water:lean body mass for normal tissue. The mean gain of protein in the cancer patients was quite small (0.3-0.6 kg). The main change in body weight appeared to be the result of gains in body water and body fat. The total body nitrogen to potassium ratio served to define the extent of tissue anabolism following hyperalimentation. The ratio dropped in the cancer patients following hyperalimentation toward the value of the control subjects on ad libitum diets. Total body nitrogen was determined by prompt gamma neutron activation analysis, total body potassium by whole-body counting
Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this epidemiological study was to investigate the relationship of thermal discomfort with cold extremities (TDCE to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI in a Swiss urban population. Methods In a random population sample of Basel city, 2,800 subjects aged 20-40 years were asked to complete a questionnaire evaluating the extent of cold extremities. Values of cold extremities were based on questionnaire-derived scores. The correlation of age, gender, and BMI to TDCE was analyzed using multiple regression analysis. Results A total of 1,001 women (72.3% response rate and 809 men (60% response rate returned a completed questionnaire. Statistical analyses revealed the following findings: Younger subjects suffered more intensely from cold extremities than the elderly, and women suffered more than men (particularly younger women. Slimmer subjects suffered significantly more often from cold extremities than subjects with higher BMIs. Conclusions Thermal discomfort with cold extremities (a relevant symptom of primary vascular dysregulation occurs at highest intensity in younger, slimmer women and at lowest intensity in elderly, stouter men.
Singh, R. B.
Land use describes human activities on the earth, and forms a major element of the terrestrial ecosystem modified by humans in the Himalayan region, where developmental activities are increasing rapidly to support the tourism infrastructure. The unprecedented growth in population is putting extremely high pressure on the limited land available for cultivation. Land use and agricultural practices have undergone drastic changes since the mid-1960s through the introduction of development programmes and the application of various newly developed techniques in agrosciences. An analysis of the land use as it has occurred over the last 70 years suggests that it and property rights in the Upper Beas Basin are complex and dynamic. For example, people are giving importance to orchards because of their high profitability. Thus, some agricultural land has been encroached on by orchards. In addition, wastelands are now being used by people for orchards, agriculture and residential and commercial building. Since the Upper Beas River Basin is mountainous, it is fragile and prone to processes like soil erosion, slope instability, landslides and floods. Risks from natural hazards are increasing. However, the state of ecohydrological responses highlight that human-induced ecological changes can be largely proved at the microwatershed level. The findings are not extended to the Himalayan scale. There is also an uncertain correlation between anthropogenic activities (deforestation) in the mountains and hazards in the plains such as floods. Owing to a lack of basic research, there is little effective information which cannot be used for long-term effective monitoring of ecological and hydrological responses to global change. Such an uncertain situation calls for integrated watershed management and development using geographical information systems (GISs).
Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.
Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency and intensity distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, gridded data from a dense network of surface precipitation gauges and a global atmospheric analysis at a coarser scale are combined to develop a diagnostic framework for the large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) that dominate during extreme precipitation. Such diagnostic framework is first evaluated with the late 20th century simulations from an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and is found to produce more consistent (and less uncertain) total and interannaul number of extreme days with the observations than the model-based precipitation over the south-central United States and the Western United States examined in this study. The framework is then applied to the CMIP5 multi-model projections for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to assess the potential future changes in the probability of precipitation extremes over the same study regions. We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.
Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D
Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.
Berg, van den Maaike M.G.A.
Because of the improved survival rate, both short term and long term adverse effects of breast cancer treatment have become increasingly important. Body weight and body composition before, during, and after chemotherapy may influence side effects during treatment and survival. The aims of this
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.
Barbara R. Lyon
Full Text Available Polar Regions are unique and highly prolific ecosystems characterized by extreme environmental gradients. Photosynthetic autotrophs, the base of the food web, have had to adapt physiological mechanisms to maintain growth, reproduction and metabolic activity despite environmental conditions that would shut-down cellular processes in most organisms. High latitudes are characterized by temperatures below the freezing point, complete darkness in winter and continuous light and high UV in the summer. Additionally, sea-ice, an ecological niche exploited by microbes during the long winter seasons when the ocean and land freezes over, is characterized by large salinity fluctuations, limited gas exchange, and highly oxic conditions. The last decade has been an exciting period of insights into the molecular mechanisms behind adaptation of microalgae to the cryosphere facilitated by the advancement of new scientific tools, particularly “omics” techniques. We review recent insights derived from genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics studies. Genes, proteins and pathways identified from these highly adaptable polar microbes have far-reaching biotechnological applications. Furthermore, they may provide insights into life outside this planet, as well as glimpses into the past. High latitude regions also have disproportionately large inputs into global biogeochemical cycles and are the region most sensitive to climate change.
Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.
Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.
Butt, Nathalie; Seabrook, Leonie; Maron, Martine; Law, Bradley S; Dawson, Terence P; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive A
Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed
Morgan, Ali Zaremba; Keiley, Margaret K.; Ryan, Aubrey E.; Radomski, Juliana Groves; Gropper, Sareen S.; Connell, Lenda Jo; Simmons, Karla P.; Ulrich, Pamela V.
Obesity and high body fat percentages are a major public health issue. The percentage of obese and overweight Americans has increased over the past 30 years. On average, overweight individuals with higher percent body fat than normal weight individuals are at increased risk for numerous negative outcomes both physically and mentally. A prime time…
Grace I. Davies
Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.
Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol
Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.
Straight, Chad R; Brady, Anne O; Evans, Ellen
This study aims to determine the sex-specific relationships of physical activity, body composition, and muscle quality with lower-extremity physical function in older men and women. Seventy-nine community-dwelling men (n = 39; mean [SD] age, 76.1 [6.2] y; mean [SD] body mass index, 27.3 [3.8] kg/m(2)) and women (n = 40; mean [SD] age, 75.8 [5.5] y; mean [SD] body mass index, 27.0 [3.8] kg/m(2)) were assessed for physical activity via questionnaire, body composition via dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scanning, leg extension power using the Nottingham power rig, and muscle quality (W/kg; the ratio of leg extension power [W] to lower-body mineral-free lean mass [kg]). A composite measure of physical function was obtained by summing Z scores from the 6-minute walk, 8-ft up-and-go test, and 30-second chair-stand test. As expected, men had significantly greater levels of physical activity, lower adiposity, greater lean mass, higher leg extension power, and greater muscle quality compared with women (all P physical activity were the strongest predictors of lower-extremity physical function in men and independently explained 42% and 29% of the variance, respectively. In women, muscle quality (16%) and percent body fat (12%) were independent predictors after adjustment for covariates. Muscle quality is the strongest predictor of lower-extremity physical function in men and women, but sex impacts the importance of physical activity and adiposity. These findings suggest that older men and women may benefit from different intervention strategies for preventing physical disability and also highlight the importance of weight management for older women to preserve physical function.
Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: email@example.com; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)
The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano
Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian
Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.
Hao, Z; Mumphrey, M B; Morrison, C D; Münzberg, H; Ye, J; Berthoud, H R
The relatively stable body weight during adulthood is attributed to a homeostatic regulatory mechanism residing in the brain which uses feedback from the body to control energy intake and expenditure. This mechanism guarantees that if perturbed up or down by design, body weight will return to pre-perturbation levels, defined as the defended level or set point. The fact that weight re-gain is common after dieting suggests that obese subjects defend a higher level of body weight. Thus, the set point for body weight is flexible and likely determined by the complex interaction of genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors. Unlike dieting, bariatric surgery does a much better job in producing sustained suppression of food intake and body weight, and an intensive search for the underlying mechanisms has started. Although one explanation for this lasting effect of particularly Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) is simple physical restriction due to the invasive surgery, a more exciting explanation is that the surgery physiologically reprograms the body weight defense mechanism. In this non-systematic review, we present behavioral evidence from our own and other studies that defended body weight is lowered after RYGB and sleeve gastrectomy. After these surgeries, rodents return to their preferred lower body weight if over- or underfed for a period of time, and the ability to drastically increase food intake during the anabolic phase strongly argues against the physical restriction hypothesis. However, the underlying mechanisms remain obscure. Although the mechanism involves central leptin and melanocortin signaling pathways, other peripheral signals such as gut hormones and their neural effector pathways likely contribute. Future research using both targeted and non-targeted 'omics' techniques in both humans and rodents as well as modern, genetically targeted, neuronal manipulation techniques in rodents will be necessary.
Full Text Available This paper reports on the perception of changing body image and well-being for patients who had undergone plastic surgery following massive weight loss. The exploratory, qualitative study was undertaken with 20 patients from one teaching hospital in the south of England. Semi-structured interviews were carried out and a thematic analysis of the data undertaken. The results provide important insights regarding body contouring influencing body image change and the adjustment process involved. The ability to pursue self-esteem and the accruing social benefits is emphasized in the interrelated sub themes including social acceptance, undoing depression and sexual vitality. Body contouring surgery following massive weight loss appears to facilitate improvement in body image and well-being. Adjustment to the changing body image is both empowering and challenging. Supportive educational programmes need to be developed to assist this transition to a more positive body image and appreciation; these could usefully include access to and involvement with patient support groups.
There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the
Full Text Available Background: Neuromuscular electric stimulation (NMES induces repeated muscular contraction, possibly promoting the perfusion/oxygenation of the regional tissues. It remains unclear how NMES influences vascular hemodynamic property and segmental fluid distribution/composition in paretic extremities of hemiplegic patients. Methods: Eleven hemiplegic patients aged 62.6 ± 12.5 years in the subacute stage of stroke received NMES for paretic wrist extensor and flexor muscles 30 min daily, 5 days per week for 4 weeks. The non-paretic upper extremities (NPUE that did not receive NMES served as control. Distribution of fluid to intra/extracellular milieu and arterial hemodynamic properties were determined by using the multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance and pulse wave analysis, respectively. Results: Compared with NPUE without NMES, paretic upper extremity (PUE with NMES revealed a significantly less decrease in arterial blood flow, impedance quotient, slope quotient, and less increase in crest width and crest time of arterial pulse wave. NMES for 4 weeks increased body cell mass in PUE. Furthermore, NPUE without NMES reduced intracellular water, whereas PUE with NMES retarded loss of intracellular water after stroke. Conclusion: NMES therapy increases body cell mass, attenuates reduction of intracellular water, and alleviates arterial hemodynamic disturbance in PUE in subacute stroke. However, stroke-related physical deconditioning may negatively regulate body composition and impair hemodynamic function in NPUE.
Full Text Available Following hemiparetic stroke, precise, individuated control of single joints is often replaced by highly stereotyped patterns of multi-joint movement, or abnormal limb synergies, which can negatively impact functional use of the paretic arm. One hypothesis for the expression of these synergies is an increased dependence on bulbospinal pathways such as the rubrospinal (RubST tract and especially the reticulospinal (RetST tracts, which co-activate multiple muscles of the shoulder, elbow, wrist, and fingers. Despite indirect evidence supporting this hypothesis in humans poststroke, it still remains unclear whether it is correct. Therefore, we used high-resolution diffusion tensor imaging (DTI to quantify white matter microstructure in relation to severity of arm synergy and hand-related motor impairments. DTI was performed on 19 moderately to severely impaired chronic stroke individuals and 15 healthy, age-matched controls. In stroke individuals, compared to controls, there was significantly decreased fractional anisotropy (FA and significantly increased axial and radial diffusivity in bilateral corona radiata and body of the corpus callosum. Furthermore, poststroke, the contralesional (CL RetST FA correlated significantly with both upper extremity (UE synergy severity (r = −0.606, p = 0.003 and hand impairment (r = −0.609, p = 0.003. FA in the ipsilesional RubST significantly correlated with hand impairment severity (r = −0.590, p = 0.004. For the first time, we separately evaluate RetST and RubST microstructure in chronic stroke individuals with UE motor impairment. We demonstrate that individuals with the greatest UE synergy severity and hand impairments poststroke have the highest FA in the CL RetST a pattern consistent with increased myelination and suggestive of neuroplastic reorganization. Since the RetST pathway microstructure, in particular, is sensitive to abnormal joint coupling and hand-related motor
Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo
Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible
Alentola, Anni Emilia
The purpose of this study is to explain and analyse the body positivity movement in the social media platform Instagram, as well as its empowering effects on women active in this movement. The phenomenon based on visuality, body positivism, has more than three million pictures on Instagram, hashtagged under two popular hashtags examined in this thesis: #bodypositivity and #bodypositive. The goal of this movement is to show diversity in the portrayal of women, as well as to encourage acceptanc...
Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan
Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/
Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.
Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.
Sagnotti, Leonardo; Scardia, Giancarlo; Giaccio, Biagio; Liddicoat, Joseph C.; Nomade, Sebastien; Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.
We report a palaeomagnetic investigation of the last full geomagnetic field reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) transition, as preserved in a continuous sequence of exposed lacustrine sediments in the Apennines of Central Italy. The palaeomagnetic record provides the most direct evidence for the tempo of transitional field behaviour yet obtained for the M-B transition. 40Ar/39Ar dating of tephra layers bracketing the M-B transition provides high-accuracy age constraints and indicates a mean sediment accumulation rate of about 0.2 mm yr-1 during the transition. Two relative palaeointensity (RPI) minima are present in the M-B transition. During the terminus of the upper RPI minimum, a directional change of about 180 ° occurred at an extremely fast rate, estimated to be less than 2 ° per year, with no intermediate virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) documented during the transit from the southern to northern hemisphere. Thus, the entry into the Brunhes Normal Chron as represented by the palaeomagnetic directions and VGPs developed in a time interval comparable to the duration of an average human life, which is an order of magnitude more rapid than suggested by current models. The reported investigation therefore provides high-resolution integrated palaeomagnetic and radioisotopic data that document the fine details of the anatomy and tempo of the M-B transition in Central Italy that in turn are crucial for a better understanding of Earth's magnetic field, and for the development of more sophisticated models that are able to describe its global structure and behaviour.
Tinker, Tim L
Large-scale weather events in the USA such as hurricanes Sandy, Isaac and Katrina challenge traditional approaches to change communication and management (CCM) before during and after crises. A major challenge (as well as opportunity) is addressing change from the 'whole-community' perspective affecting a spectrum of people, policies, processes, behaviours and outcomes. When CCM is used effectively, one of its fundamental advantages is creating a sense of urgency. This paper looks at optimising communication during extreme weather events, engaging stakeholders, harnessing the power of social media and change, and correlating organisational and individual behaviours and actions. The strategic blend of change management and crisis communication strategies and tactics in CCM is a central feature in the response to the full range of extreme weather scenarios.
Krause, Niklas; Burgel, Barbara; Rempel, David
The literature on psychosocial job factors and musculoskeletal pain is inconclusive in part due to insufficient control for confounding by biomechanical factors. The aim of this study was to investigate prospectively the independent effects of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) at work on regional musculoskeletal pain of the neck and upper extremities of call center operators after controlling for (i) duration of computer use both at work and at home, (ii) ergonomic workstation design, (iii) physical activities during leisure time, and (iv) other individual worker characteristics. This was a one-year prospective study among 165 call center operators who participated in a randomized ergonomic intervention trial that has been described previously. Over an approximate four-week period, we measured ERI and 28 potential confounders via a questionnaire at baseline. Regional upper-body pain and computer use was measured by weekly surveys for up to 12 months following the implementation of ergonomic interventions. Regional pain change scores were calculated as the difference between average weekly pain scores pre- and post intervention. A significant relationship was found between high average ERI ratios and one-year increases in right upper-extremity pain after adjustment for pre-intervention regional mean pain score, current and past physical workload, ergonomic workstation design, and anthropometric, sociodemographic, and behavioral risk factors. No significant associations were found with change in neck-shoulder or left upper-extremity pain. This study suggests that ERI predicts regional upper-extremity pain in -computer operators working >or=20 hours per week. Control for physical workload and ergonomic workstation design was essential for identifying ERI as a risk factor.
Bhandari, D.R.; Hankinson, M.F.
This paper presents the results of a study to assess the effect of fuel assembly mechanical design changes on the dynamic response of a pressurized water reactor vessel and reactor internals under Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) conditions. The results of this study show that the dynamic response of the reactor vessel internals and the core under extreme loadings, such as LOCA, is very sensitive to fuel assembly mechanical design changes. (author)
Starkey, Leighann; Revenson, Tracey A
Many studies link childhood socioeconomic status (SES) to body mass index (BMI), but few account for the impact of socioeconomic mobility throughout the lifespan. This study aims to investigate the impact of socioeconomic mobility on changes in BMI in childhood. Analyses tested whether  socioeconomic status influences BMI,  changes in socioeconomic status impact changes in BMI, and  timing of socioeconomic status mobility impacts BMI. Secondary data spanning birth to age 9 were analyzed. SES and BMI were investigated with gender, birth weight, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal nativity as covariates. Autoregressive structural equation modeling and latent growth modeling were used. Socioeconomic status in the first year of life predicted body mass index. Child covariates were consistently associated with body mass index. Rate of change in socioeconomic status did not predict change in body mass index. The findings suggest that early socioeconomic status may most influence body mass in later childhood.
Full Text Available Yuka Tsukahara, Jun Iwamoto, Kosui Iwashita, Takuma Shinjo, Koichiro Azuma, Hideo MatsumotoInstitute for Integrated Sports Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan Background: Whole-body vibration (WBV exercise is widely used for training and rehabilitation. However, the optimal posture for training both the upper and lower extremities simultaneously remains to be established. Objectives: The objective of this study was to search for an effective posture to conduct vibration from the lower to the upper extremities while performing WBV exercises without any adverse effects. Methods: Twelve healthy volunteers (age: 22–34 years were enrolled in the study. To measure the magnitude of vibration, four accelerometers were attached to the upper arm, back, thigh, and calf of each subject. Vibrations were produced using a WBV platform (Galileo 900 with an amplitude of 4 mm at two frequencies, 15 and 30 Hz. The following three postures were examined: posture A, standing posture with the knees flexed at 30°; posture B, crouching position with no direct contact between the knees and elbows; and posture C, crouching position with direct contact between the knees and elbows. The ratio of the magnitude of vibration at the thigh, back, and upper arm relative to that at the calf was used as an index of vibration conduction. Results: Posture B was associated with a greater magnitude of vibration to the calf than posture A at 15 Hz, and postures B and C were associated with greater magnitudes of vibration than posture A at 30 Hz. Posture C was associated with a vibration conduction to the upper arm that was 4.62 times and 8.26 times greater than that for posture A at 15 and 30 Hz, respectively. Conclusion: This study revealed that a crouching position on a WBV platform with direct contact between the knees and elbows was effective for conducting vibration from the lower to the upper extremities. Keywords: whole-body vibration exercise, upper
Halperin, A.; Walton, P.
As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.
Kyselý, Jan; Picek, J.; Beranová, Romana
Roč. 72, 1-2 (2010), s. 55-68 ISSN 0921-8181 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/1535; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climate change * extreme value analysis * global climate models * peaks-over-threshold method * peaks-over-quantile regression * quantile regression * Poisson process * extreme temperatures Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.351, year: 2010
Hou, Pei; Wu, Shiliang
Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air quality data and meteorological data further indicates strong sensitivities of air quality (including both average air pollutant concentrations and high pollution episodes) to extreme meteorological events. For example, we find that in the United States the probability of severe ozone pollution when there are heat waves could be up to seven times of the average probability during summertime, while temperature inversions in wintertime could enhance the probability of severe particulate matter pollution by more than a factor of two. We have also identified significant seasonal and spatial variations in the sensitivity of air quality to extreme air pollution meteorology.
Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.
As the climate warms, it is generally acknowledged that the number and magnitude of extreme weather events will increase. We examined an ecophysiological model's responses to precipitation and temperature anomalies in relation to the mean and variance of annual precipitation along a pronounced precipitation gradient from eastern to western Kansas. This natural gradient creates a template of potential responses for both the mean and variance of annual precipitation to compare the timescales of carbon and water fluxes. Using data from several Ameriflux sites (KZU and KFS) and a third eddy covariance tower (K4B) along the gradient, BIOME-BGC was used to characterize water and carbon cycle responses to extreme weather events. Changes in the extreme value distributions were based on SRES A1B and A2 scenarios using an ensemble mean of 21 GCMs for the region, downscaled using a stochastic weather generator. We focused on changing the timing and magnitude of precipitation and altering the diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges. Biome-BGC was then forced with daily output from the stochastic weather generator, and we examined how potential changes in these extreme value distributions impact carbon and water cycling at the sites across the Kansas precipitation gradient at time scales ranging from daily to interannual. To decompose the time scales of response, we applied a wavelet based information theory analysis approach. Results indicate impacts in soil moisture memory and carbon allocation processes, which vary in response to both the mean and variance of precipitation along the precipitation gradient. These results suggest a more pronounced focus ecosystem responses to extreme events across a range of temporal scales in order to fully characterize the water and carbon cycle responses to global climate change.
Williams, Gail A; Hudson, Danae L; Whisenhunt, Brooke L; Stone, Megan; Heinberg, Leslie J; Crowther, Janis H
Many bariatric surgery candidates report body image concerns before surgery. Research has reported post-surgical improvements in body satisfaction, which may be associated with weight loss. However, research has failed to comprehensively examine changes in affective, behavioral, and cognitive body image. This research examined (1) short-term changes in affective, behavioral, and cognitive components of body image from pre-surgery to 1- and 6-months after bariatric surgery, and (2) the association between percent weight loss and these changes. Participants were recruited from a private hospital in the midwestern United States. Eighty-eight females (original N = 123; lost to follow-up: n = 15 at 1-month and n = 20 at 6-months post-surgery) completed a questionnaire battery, including the Body Attitudes Questionnaire, Body Checking Questionnaire, Body Image Avoidance Questionnaire, and Body Shape Questionnaire, and weights were obtained from patients' medical records before and at 1- and 6-months post-surgery. Results indicated significant decreases in body dissatisfaction, feelings of fatness, and body image avoidance at 1- and 6-months after bariatric surgery, with the greatest magnitude of change occurring for body image avoidance. Change in feelings of fatness was significantly correlated with percent weight loss at 6-months, but not 1-month, post-surgery. These findings highlight the importance of examining short-term changes in body image from a multidimensional perspective in the effort to improve postsurgical outcomes. Unique contributions include the findings regarding the behavioral component of body image, as body image avoidance emerges as a particularly salient concern that changes over time among bariatric surgery candidates. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael; Heitmann, Berit L
Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent changes in regional body fat distributions was examined. In total, 1,236 men and 1,201 women were included at baseline and participated in the Danish MONICA (MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease) study. A questionnaire was used to assess PA at 5 and 11 years after baseline examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). LTPA and OPA were associated with reduced subsequent 6-year changes in regional fat distribution for men. For women, no associations were observed in relation to WC; however, OPA seemed to increase HC among women. © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.
Cohn, S.H.; Vaswani, A.; Zanzi, I.; Aloia, J.F.; Roginsky, M.S.; Ellis, K.J.
Total-body levels of calcium and phosphorus (reflecting skeletal mass) and total-body levels of potassium (reflecting muscle mass) were measured by neutron activation analysis in 39 men and 40 women ages 30 to 90 yr. In order to intercompare the total body calcium (TBCa) values in a heterogeneous population, such as this, it was necessary to normalize the data for skeletal size. The normalization consisted of dividing the absolute calcium level by the predicted calcium level for each individual matched to a set of critical parameters. The parameter used in the computation of normal values were age, sex, muscle mass, i.e., total body potassium (TBK) and height. For the calcium data of the women, it was necessary to add an age correction factor after the age of 55 yr. The calcium ratio (mean ratio of the predicted to measured TBCa) in men was 1.000 +- 7.8 percent and in women 0.996 +- 7.1 percent. The TBCa of normal males and females can thus be predicted to +-13 percent (at the 90 percent confidence level). An exception to this was found in males (70 to 90 yr) who exhibited a mean calcium ratio greater than 1.13
Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.
Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.
Full Text Available Historically, body size overestimation has been linked to abnormal levels of body dissatisfaction found in eating disorders. However, recently this relationship has been called into question. Indeed, despite a link between how we perceive and how we feel about our body seeming intuitive, until now lack of an experimental method to manipulate body size has meant that a causal link, even in healthy participants, has remained elusive. Recent developments in body perception research demonstrate that the perceptual experience of the body can be readily manipulated using multisensory illusions. The current study exploits such illusions to modulate perceived body size in an attempt to influence body satisfaction. Participants were presented with stereoscopic video images of slimmer and wider mannequin bodies viewed through head-mounted displays from first person perspective. Illusory ownership was induced by synchronously stroking the seen mannequin body with the unseen real body. Pre and post-illusion affective and perceptual measures captured changes in perceived body size and body satisfaction. Illusory ownership of a slimmer body resulted in participants perceiving their actual body as slimmer and giving higher ratings of body satisfaction demonstrating a direct link between perceptual and affective body representations. Change in body satisfaction following illusory ownership of a wider body, however, was related to degree of (non-clinical eating disorder psychopathology, which can be linked to fluctuating body representations found in clinical samples. The results suggest that body perception is linked to body satisfaction and may be of importance for eating disorder symptomology.
Preston, Catherine; Ehrsson, H. Henrik
Historically, body size overestimation has been linked to abnormal levels of body dissatisfaction found in eating disorders. However, recently this relationship has been called into question. Indeed, despite a link between how we perceive and how we feel about our body seeming intuitive, until now lack of an experimental method to manipulate body size has meant that a causal link, even in healthy participants, has remained elusive. Recent developments in body perception research demonstrate that the perceptual experience of the body can be readily manipulated using multisensory illusions. The current study exploits such illusions to modulate perceived body size in an attempt to influence body satisfaction. Participants were presented with stereoscopic video images of slimmer and wider mannequin bodies viewed through head-mounted displays from first person perspective. Illusory ownership was induced by synchronously stroking the seen mannequin body with the unseen real body. Pre and post-illusion affective and perceptual measures captured changes in perceived body size and body satisfaction. Illusory ownership of a slimmer body resulted in participants perceiving their actual body as slimmer and giving higher ratings of body satisfaction demonstrating a direct link between perceptual and affective body representations. Change in body satisfaction following illusory ownership of a wider body, however, was related to degree of (non-clinical) eating disorder psychopathology, which can be linked to fluctuating body representations found in clinical samples. The results suggest that body perception is linked to body satisfaction and may be of importance for eating disorder symptomology. PMID:24465698
Gropper, Sareen S; Simmons, Karla P; Connell, Lenda Jo; Ulrich, Pamela V
The objectives of this study were to examine changes in body weight, body mass index (BMI), body composition, and shape in a group of male and female students over the 4-year college period. Anthropometric assessments including height and weight (via standard techniques), body composition (via bioelectrical impedance analysis), and body shape (via 3-dimensional body scanning) were conducted at the beginning of the freshman year and end of the senior year in 131 college students. Four-year changes included significant (p obese increased from 18% to 31%. The number of females and males with ≥30% and 20% body fat, respectively, increased from n = 14 to n = 26 (with n = 4 exhibiting normal weight obesity) over the 4-year period. The waist circumference changes were significantly (p obesity and normal weight obesity among this college population suggests the need for additional health promotion strategies on college campuses.
Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.
According to the IPCC, flooding is the most widespread serious potential impact of climate change on human settlement. Vulnerability to floods can be thought as a function of exposure and adaptive capacity, and all three entities have been increasing in many areas. Therefore, in order to inform decision-makers, it is crucial to better understand what are the vulnerability factors but also to what extend individuals and societies are capable to adapt their way of life to their changing environment. In this perspective, flash flood events offer a good example of the kind of extremes that our societies may have to face more often in the future. Characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity and small scale, they are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and leave very little lead-time for warnings. In this context, our interdisciplinary team conducts research focusing on individual and human organization responses to warning and crisis situations by using a comprehensive, coupled natural—human system approach over time and space scales. The objective is to understand i) what cognitive and situational factors help individuals and communities to shift from normal daily activities to adapted crisis response and ii) what is the dynamic of this process compared to the one of the natural phenomenon. In this regard, our research learned both from individual perception and behavioral intent survey ("what if" type of survey) than from actual behavioral data gathered in a context of post-event investigations. The review of the literature shows that behavioral intent surveys do not accurately predict warning and crisis response as well as behavioral data do. Knowing that, the difficulty is to obtain consistent and accurate spatio-temporal behavioral data. According to our experience, this is particularly difficult in the context of crisis situations. Behavioral verification requires real-time observations and data collection of indicators
Hunter, Susan W; Frengopoulos, Courtney; Holmes, Jeffrey; Viana, Ricardo; Payne, Michael W C
The improvement of gait and mobility are major rehabilitation goals following lower extremity amputations. However, when living in the community many daily activities require the multitasking of motor and cognitive tasks. The dual-task paradigm can be used to evaluate the concurrent performance of mobility and cognitive tasks. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of dual-task gait testing in older adults with trans-tibial amputations. Twenty-four people (15 men, mean age ± SD, 62.72 ± 8.59) with trans-tibial amputation walked on an electronic walkway at i) self-selected comfortable pace and ii) self-selected comfortable pace while counting backwards by threes from a number randomly selected between 100 and 150. Cognitive performance, in the form of corrected response rate, was also evaluated as a single-task. The dual-task testing produced poorer performance in velocity (single-task = 58.15 ± 23.16 cm/s, dual-task = 50.92 ± 21.16 cm/s, p = 0.008), cadence (single-task = 76.65 ± 15.84 steps/min, dual-task = 67.85 ± 15.76 steps/min, p = 0.002) and stride time (single-task = 1094 ± 458.28 ms, dual-task = 1241.44 ± 513.73 ms, p = 0.005). Step length, stance time and single limb support time symmetry were also affected, such that less time was spent on the amputated limb during the dual-task testing. Dual-task testing demonstrated interference resulting in a poor performance in both gait and cognitive performance in trans-tibial amputees. Further research is suggested to evaluate the change in cognition-mobility effects over time and the relationship of this value to future adverse events such as falls and successful outcomes such as community ambulation and reintegration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Nikawa, Yoshio; Nakamura, Suguru
In the field of traditional oriental medicine, two types of treatment style, which are an acupuncture treatment and a moxibustion treatment have been performed. These treatments are used and effected by doctor or acupuncturist in their clinic or hospital and are widely spread. In spite of such a general treatment, it is not deeply discussed about mechanism of heat transfer modality and about temperature distribution in the treatment of moxibustion. Also, it is not discussed about temperature distribution deep inside human tissue during acupuncture treatment. It comes from the difficulty of noninvasive measurement of temperature deep inside human body. In this study, a temperature distribution for acupuncture and moxibustion treatment is measured and analyzed using thermograph and MRI by measuring the phase of longitudinal relaxation time of protons. The experimental results of measured temperature distribution under the human legs have been demonstrated. The result of temperature analysis in the human body is also reported. (author)
Fueloep, T. Jr.; Worum, I.; Csongor, J.; Ujhelyi, L.; Foeris, G.
The body composition of 30 elderly (22 females: 78,2+7,6; 8 males: 80,4+5,4 yrs) and 38 middle-aged (27 females: 45,5+10.3; 11 males: 42,3+8,7 yrs) people suffering of essential hypertension determined by complex clinical and biological examinations (BP: 160-180/100-200 Hgmm), was determined before and after treatment. Most of them (78%) could be reassessed after 3 month of treatment (beta-blocking drugs or diuretics). The authors also investigated a few numbers (n=10) of patients presenting a hypertensive crisis treated with vasodilatant drugs and diuretics during 1 week of period. The hormonal status of all of them was assessed at the same time. The body composition was determined by multiple-isotope method
The body-mind problem invites scientific study, since mental events are repeated and repeatable and invite testable explanations. They seemed troublesome because of the classical theory of substance that failed to solve its own central problems. These are soluble with the aid of the theory of the laws of nature, particularly in its emergentist version [Bunge, M., 1980. The Body-mind Problem, Pergamon, Oxford] that invites refutable explanations [Popper, K.R., 1959. The Logic of Scientific Discovery, Hutchinson, London]. The view of mental properties as emergent is a modification of the two chief classical views, materialism and dualism. As this view invites testable explanations of events of the inner world, it is better than the quasi-behaviorist view of self-awareness as computer-style self-monitoring [Minsky, M., Laske, O., 1992. A conversation with Marvin Minsky. AI Magazine 13 (3), 31-45].
You, Qinglong [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China); Aguilar, Enric [Universitat Rovirai Virgili de Tarragona, Climate Change Research Group, Geography Unit, Tarragona (Spain); Pepin, Nick [University of Portsmouth, Department of Geography, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Fluegel, Wolfgang-Albert [Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Yan, Yuping [National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Xu, Yanwei; Huang, Jie [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang, Yongjun [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China)
Based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation records at 303 meteorological stations in China, the spatial and temporal distributions of indices of climate extremes are analyzed during 1961-2003. Twelve indices of extreme temperature and six of extreme precipitation are studied. Temperature extremes have high correlations with the annual mean temperature, which shows a significant warming of 0.27 C/decade, indicating that changes in temperature extremes reflect the consistent warming. Stations in northeastern, northern, northwestern China have larger trend magnitudes, which are accordance with the more rapid mean warming in these regions. Countrywide, the mean trends for cold days and cold nights have decreased by -0.47 and -2.06 days/decade respectively, and warm days and warm nights have increased by 0.62 and 1.75 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the number of frost days shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of -3.37 days/decade. The length of the growing season and the number of summer days exhibit significant increasing trends at rates of 3.04 and 1.18 days/decade, respectively. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by -0.18 C/decade. Both the annual extreme lowest and highest temperatures exhibit significant warming trends, the former warming faster than the latter. For precipitation indices, regional annual total precipitation shows an increasing trend and most other precipitation indices are strongly correlated with annual total precipitation. Average wet day precipitation, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, and heavy precipitation days show increasing trends, but only the last is statistically significant. A decreasing trend is found for consecutive dry days. For all precipitation indices, stations in the Yangtze River basin, southeastern and northwestern China have the largest positive trend magnitudes, while stations in the Yellow River basin and in northern China have the largest
Findell, Kirsten; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre; Krasting, John; Lintner, Benjamin; Malyshev, Sergey; Santanello, Joseph; Shevliakova, Elena
Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land use/land cover change (LULCC) and the vegetative response to changes in atmospheric CO2 on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics. Current work is targeted at understanding how CO2 fertilization of plant growth impacts water use efficiency and surface flux partitioning, and how these changes influence temperature and humidity extremes. We use this modeling work to explore how remote sensing can be used to determine how different forest ecosystems in different climatological regimes are responding to enhanced CO2 and a warming world.
Aerenson, Travis; Tebaldi, Claudia; Sanderson, Ben; Lamarque, Jean-François
Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °C in a special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from definitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.
are studied, all based on output from historical rain series of the present climate and output from Regional Climate Models. Two models are applied, one being based on an extreme value model, the Partial Duration Series Approach, and the other based on a stochastic rainfall generator model. Finally...
Gjærde, Line K.; Gamborg, Michael; Ängquist, Lars
IMPORTANCE: The incidence of ischemic stroke among young adults is rising and is potentially due to an increase in stroke risk factors occurring at younger ages, such as obesity. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether childhood body mass index (BMI) and change in BMI are associated with adult ischemi...
Yu, Chang Ho; Seo, Shin Bae; Kang, Seung Rok; Kim, Kyung; Kwon, Tae Kyu
This study shows the improvement of muscle activity and muscle strength imbalance in the lower extremities through independent exercise loads in vibration platform. Twenty females of age 20 participated in this study. The subjects were divided into WBV group, with more than 10% of muscle strength imbalance between left and right the lower extremities, and control group, with less than 10% of muscle strength imbalance between left and right the lower extremities. As the prior experiment showed, different exercise postures provide different muscular activities. As a result, the highest muscular activity was found to be in the low squat posture. Therefore, the LS posture was selected for the exercise in this experiment. Vibration intensities were applied to dominant muscle and non-dominant muscle, and the vibration frequency was fixed at 25Hz for the WBV group. The control group was asked to perform the same exercise as the WBV group, without stimulated vibration. This exercise was conducted for a total of 4 weeks. As a result, the WBV group which showed an average deviation of 16% before the experiment, tended to decrease approximately to 5%. In this study, vibration exercise using load deviation is shown to be effective in improving the muscle strength imbalance.
Body mass index (BMI), waist (W) and hip (H) circumference (C) are commonly used to assess changes in body composition for field research. We developed a model to estimate changes in dual energy X-ray absorption (DXA) percent fat (% fat) from these variables with a diverse sample of young women fro...
Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.
Within THESEUS European project, an overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. It was then used to study the evolution of floodplains' location and areas towards 2100 in the entire Estuary. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on maregraphic observations for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimistic one of the French national institute for climate change: 60 cm in 2100. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The analysis of surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model towards upstream. Concerning floodplains, those corresponding to return periods from 2 to 100 years for present conditions and 3 slices [2010; 2039], [2040; 2069] and [2070; 2099] have been mapped for 3 areas in Gironde Estuary : around Le Verdon, at the confluence between Garonne and Dordogne, and near Bordeaux. Concerning the evolution
Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon
The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.
Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail
This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.
Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.
Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.
Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results
Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R
Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci
Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.
Renato Cavanus Pagani
Full Text Available Objectives:To compare the body mass index (BMI of patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur with the BMI of patients without any previous history of fractures.Methods:We investigated patients of both sexes, aged 65 years or over, who were admitted to Hospital Independência, Hospital Beneficência Portuguesa or ULBRA University Hospital, between December 2007 and December 2010, with histories of low-energy trauma such as falling from a standingposition. These individuals were compared with patients of the same age but without any history of fracturing of the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 89, who were attended at the geriatrics outpatient clinic of the Sociedade Porto-Alegrense de Auxílio aos Necessitados (SPAAN.Results:The age group of the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur ranged from 65 to 96 years (mean: 77.58. The main type of fracture was trochanteric (47; 62.2%, followed by femoral neck fractures (27; 36%. Among the patients who presented on fracturing the proximal extremity of the femur, 12% had low weight, 62.7% normal weight, 24% overweight, and 1.3% obesity. Among the patients without any history of fractures, 5.6% presented low weight, 43.8% normal weight, 33.7% overweight, and 9.8% obesity. It was observed that the patients with fractures in the proximal extremity of the femur (n = 75 presented a mean BMI of 22.6, while the patients without fractures presented a mean BMI of 25.5.Conclusion:The patients in the group with fractures were significantly taller than those in the group without fractures and presented significantly lower BMI than those in the group without fractures.
Lisa V. Alexander
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...
Risser, MD; Wehner, MF
©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increase...
Terje S. Larsen
Full Text Available Total body water and water turnover were measured at different times throughout the year in 3 captive Norwegian reindeer, using a tritiated water dilution method (Holleman et al. 1982. Total body water (percent of body weight increased during late autumn and winter, from 59.1 ± 1.5 % in October to 72.5 ± 2.0 % in April. Using the equatation by Pace and Rathbun (1945 for predicting total body fat (% fat = 100 - % water/0.732, this increase in total body water indicates a concomitant reduction in body fat, from a maximum value of 18.9 ± 2.6 % (of body weight in October to a minimum of 0.9 ± 2.7 % in April. During summer, on the other hand, fat content increased at the expense of a reduced percentage of body water. Water turnover was low in winter (December - April, ranging between 30.8 ± 5.2and43.6 ± 13.5ml.d-'. kg-1, but increased nearly fourfold during summer (June-August with a maximum of 117.7 ± 5.9 ml.d-1. kg-1 in August. Positive correlations between water turnover and food intake and between water turnover and ambient temperature were found, the latter probably resulting from an incidental correlation between food intake and ambient temperature.Sesongmessige forandringer i totalt kroppsvann, kropps-sammensetning og vannomsetning hos reinsdyr.Abstract in Norwegian / Sammendrag: Totalt kroppsvann og vannomsetning av vann ble målt til forskjellige årstider i 3 norske reinsdyr ved hjelp av utvasking av tritiert vann (Holleman et al. 1982. Totalt kroppsvann (prosent av kroppsvekt økte utover høsten og vinteren, fra 59.1 ± 1.5 % i oktober til 72.5 ± 2.0 % i april. Ved hjelp av en ligning som er gitt av Pace og Rathbun (1945 for beregning av totalt kroppsfett (% fett = 100 - % vann/0.732, fant en at denne økningen i vanninnhold tilsvarte en samtidig reduksjon i fettinnhold, fra en maksimums-verdi på 18.9 ± 2.6 % av kroppsvekt i oktober til et minimum på 0.9 ± 2.7 % i april. Utover sommeren økte derimot innholdet av fett p
Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.
Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto
Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135
Full Text Available Environmental cues, such as temperature, play important roles in the regulation of physiology and behavior in small mammals. The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that ambient temperature was a cue to induce adjustments in body mass and thermogenic capacity in Apodemus chevrieri. It showed that A. chevrieri increased resting metabolic rate (RMR, nonshivering thermogenesis (NST and energy intake and decreased body mass and body temperature when exposed to the cold while showed a significant increase in body mass and body temperature after rewarming. The decrease of body temperature can reduce the difference in temperature in environment, save energy consumption. The increase in body mass after rewarming was associated with the higher energy intake. Together, these data supported our hypothesis that ambient temperature was a cue to induce changes in body mass and metabolism in A. chevrieri.
Full Text Available Accurately interpreting other's emotions through facial expressions has important adaptive values for social interactions. However, due to the stereotypical social perception of overweight individuals as carefree, humorous, and light-hearted, the body weight of those with whom we interact may have a systematic influence on our emotion judgment even though it has no relevance to the expressed emotion itself. In this experimental study, we examined the role of body weight in faces on the affective perception of facial expressions. We hypothesized that the weight perceived in a face would bias the assessment of an emotional expression, with overweight faces generally more likely to be perceived as having more positive and less negative expressions than healthy weight faces. Using two-alternative forced-choice perceptual decision tasks, participants were asked to sort the emotional expressions of overweight and healthy weight facial stimuli that had been gradually morphed across six emotional intensity levels into one of two categories-"neutral vs. happy" (Experiment 1 and "neutral vs. sad" (Experiment 2. As predicted, our results demonstrated that overweight faces were more likely to be categorized as happy (i.e., lower happy decision threshold and less likely to be categorized as sad (i.e., higher sad decision threshold compared to healthy weight faces that had the same levels of emotional intensity. The neutral-sad decision threshold shift was negatively correlated with participant's own fear of becoming fat, that is, those without a fear of becoming fat more strongly perceived overweight faces as sad relative to those with a higher fear. These findings demonstrate that the weight of the face systematically influences how its emotional expression is interpreted, suggesting that being overweight may make emotional expressions appear more happy and less sad than they really are.
Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Noordam, M.Y.; Franz, E.; Willems, D.J.M.; Boxall, A.
According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and
Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E
The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979–2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons. (letter)
Kavaljit H. Chhabra
Conclusions: Pomc reactivation in previously obese, calorie-restricted ArcPomc−/− mice normalized energy homeostasis, suggesting that their body weight set point was restored to control levels. In contrast, massively obese and hyperleptinemic ArcPomc−/− mice or those weight-matched and treated with PASylated leptin to maintain extreme hyperleptinemia prior to Pomc reactivation converged to an intermediate set point relative to lean control and obese ArcPomc−/− mice. We conclude that restoration of hypothalamic leptin sensitivity and Pomc expression is necessary for obese ArcPomc−/− mice to achieve and sustain normal metabolic homeostasis; whereas deficits in either parameter set a maladaptive allostatic balance that defends increased adiposity and body weight.
Shimizu, Kahori; Katoh, Tomoyasu; Teshima, Hideo; Arai, Yuji; Satoh, Hisashi; Hirai, Yasuo; Tsuzuku, Masafumi; Yamauchi, Kazuhiro; Hasumi, Katsuhiko [Cancer Institute Hospital, Tokyo (Japan)
Initial radiotherapy for patients with endometrial cancer with complications is rare. The purpose of this study was to identify the acute cytologic changes in endometrial cancer induced by irradiation. From 1985 to 1997, 21 patients with endometrial cancer received initial radiotherapy. We reviewed ten cases of them cytologically from which we were able to estimate the acute changes in cancer cells. As the dose of irradiation increased, wrinkled edge of nuclei, cytoplasmic vacuolation, and coarse granular chromatin were diffusely observed. Nuclear swelling and giant cell formation appeared in a scattered manner. Compared with histologic specimens, we could observe intra-nuclear changes more clearly on the endometrial smear. We could also observe a decrease in large clusters and a significant increase in small clusters with degeneration when cancer nests collapse in histologic specimens. We found that the cellular changes of endometrial cancer by irradiation generally resemble that of squamous cell cancer. We recommend complete full dose irradiation before assessing the prognosis of patients with endometrial cancer because radiosensitivity can be very variable. (author)
Shimizu, Kahori; Katoh, Tomoyasu; Teshima, Hideo; Arai, Yuji; Satoh, Hisashi; Hirai, Yasuo; Tsuzuku, Masafumi; Yamauchi, Kazuhiro; Hasumi, Katsuhiko
Initial radiotherapy for patients with endometrial cancer with complications is rare. The purpose of this study was to identify the acute cytologic changes in endometrial cancer induced by irradiation. From 1985 to 1997, 21 patients with endometrial cancer received initial radiotherapy. We reviewed ten cases of them cytologically from which we were able to estimate the acute changes in cancer cells. As the dose of irradiation increased, wrinkled edge of nuclei, cytoplasmic vacuolation, and coarse granular chromatin were diffusely observed. Nuclear swelling and giant cell formation appeared in a scattered manner. Compared with histologic specimens, we could observe intra-nuclear changes more clearly on the endometrial smear. We could also observe a decrease in large clusters and a significant increase in small clusters with degeneration when cancer nests collapse in histologic specimens. We found that the cellular changes of endometrial cancer by irradiation generally resemble that of squamous cell cancer. We recommend complete full dose irradiation before assessing the prognosis of patients with endometrial cancer because radiosensitivity can be very variable. (author)
Karazsia, Bryan T; van Dulmen, Manfred H M; Wong, Kendal; Crowther, Janis H
Internalization of societal standards of physical attractiveness (i.e., internalization of the thin ideal for women and internalization of the mesomorphic ideal for men) is a widely studied and robust risk factor for body dissatisfaction and maladaptive body change behaviors. Substantial empirical research supports internalization as both a mediator and a moderator of the relation between societal influences and body dissatisfaction. In this paper, a primer on mediation and moderation is followed by a review of literature and discussion of the extent to which internalization can theoretically fulfill the roles of both mediation and moderation. The literature review revealed a stark contrast in research design (experimental versus non-experimental design) when alternate conceptualizations of internalization are adopted. A meta-theoretical, moderated mediation model is presented. This model integrates previous research and can inform future empirical and clinical endeavors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Blob, Richard W; Bridges, William C; Ptacek, Margaret B; Maie, Takashi; Cediel, Roberto A; Bertolas, Morgan M; Julius, Matthew L; Schoenfuss, Heiko L
Flow characteristics are a prominent factor determining body shapes in aquatic organisms, and correlations between body shape and ambient flow regimes have been established for many fish species. In this study, we investigated the potential for a brief period of extreme flow to exert selection on the body shape of juvenile climbing Hawaiian gobiid fishes. Because of an amphidromous life history, juvenile gobies that complete an oceanic larval phase return to freshwater habitats, where they become adults. Returning juveniles often must scale waterfalls (typically with the use of a ventral sucker) in order to reach the habitats they will use as adults, thereby exposing these animals to brief periods of extreme velocities of flow. Hydrodynamic theory predicts that bodies with larger suckers and with lower heights that reduce drag would have improved climbing success and, thus, be well suited to meet the demands of the flows in waterfalls. To test the potential for the flow environment of waterfalls to impose selection that could contribute to differences in body shape between islands, we subjected juvenile Sicyopterus stimpsoni to climbing trials up artificial waterfalls (∼100 body lengths) and measured differences in body shape between successful and unsuccessful climbers. Waterfalls appear to represent a significant selective barrier to these fishes, as nearly 30% failed our climbing test. However, the effects of selection on morphology were not straightforward, as significant differences in shape between successful and unsuccessful climbers did not always match hydrodynamic predictions. In both selection experiments and in adult fish collected from habitats with different prevailing conditions of flow (the islands of Hawai'i versus Kaua'i), lower head heights were associated with exposure to high-flow regimes, as predicted by hydrodynamic theory. Thus, a premium appears to be placed on the reduction of drag via head morphology throughout the ontogeny of this
Larsen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
Climate change will impact the hydrological cycle greatly and lead to increases in flood hazards due to both pluvial and fluvial floods as well as sea surges in many regions. The impacts of the individual effects are analysed for a catchment in Greater Copenhagen. Based on both the present...... surges. Presently the most important hazard is due to extreme precipitation. However, due to climate change impacts the future most important hazard is due to sea surges. The increase in probability of floods is substantial over a 70 year horizon and actions must be taken to decrease either the hazards...
Sheean, Patricia M; Hoskins, Kent; Stolley, Melinda
Body composition changes cannot be precisely captured using body weight or body mass index measures. Therefore, the primary purpose of this review was to characterize the patterns of body composition change in females treated for breast cancer including only studies that utilize imaging technologies to quantify adipose tissue and lean body mass (LBM). We reviewed PubMed for studies published between 1971 and 2012 involving females diagnosed with breast cancer where computed axial tomography , dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, or magnetic resonance imaging were employed for body composition assessment. Of the initial 440 studies, 106 papers were evaluated and 36 papers met all eligibility criteria (15 observational and 21 intervention trials). Results of these studies revealed that body weight did not consistently increase. Importantly, studies also showed that body weight did not accurately depict changes in lean or adipose tissues. Further findings included that sarcopenic obesity as a consequence of breast cancer treatment was not definitive, as menopausal status may be a substantial moderator of body composition. Overall, the behavioral interventions did not exhibit consistent or profound effects on body composition outcomes; approximately half showed favorable influence on adiposity while the effects on LBM were not apparent. The use of tamoxifen had a clear negative impact on body composition. The majority of studies were conducted in predominantly white survivors, highlighting the need for trials in minority populations. Collectively, these studies were limited by age, race, and/or menopause status matched control groups, overall size, and statistical power. Very few studies simultaneously collected diet and exercise data-two potential factors that impact body composition. Future breast cancer trials should prioritize precise body composition methodologies to elucidate how these changes impact recurrence, prognosis, and mortality, and to provide clinicians
Tseng, Michelle; Kaur, Katrina M; Soleimani Pari, Sina; Sarai, Karnjit; Chan, Denessa; Yao, Christine H; Porto, Paula; Toor, Anmol; Toor, Harpawantaj S; Fograscher, Katrina
Body size is a fundamental ecological trait and is correlated with population dynamics, community structure and function, and ecosystem fluxes. Laboratory data from broad taxonomic groups suggest that a widespread response to a warming world may be an overall decrease in organism body size. However, given the myriad of biotic and abiotic factors that can also influence organism body size in the wild, it is unclear whether results from these laboratory assays hold in nature. Here we use datasets spanning 30 to 100 years to examine whether the body size of wild-caught beetles has changed over time, whether body size changes are correlated with increased temperatures, and we frame these results using predictions derived from a quantitative review of laboratory responses of 22 beetle species to temperature. We found that 95% of laboratory-reared beetles decreased in size with increased rearing temperature, with larger-bodied species shrinking disproportionately more than smaller-bodied beetles. In addition, the museum datasets revealed that larger-bodied beetle species have decreased in size over time, that mean beetle body size explains much of the interspecific variation in beetle responses to temperature, and that long-term beetle size changes are explained by increases in autumn temperature and decreases in spring temperature in this region. Our data demonstrate that the relationship between body size and temperature of wild-caught beetles matches relatively well with results from laboratory studies, and that variation in this relationship is largely explained by interspecific variation in mean beetle body size. This long-term beetle dataset is one of the most comprehensive arthropod body size datasets compiled to date, it improves predictions regarding the shrinking of organisms with global climate change, and together with the meta-analysis data, call for new hypotheses to explain why larger-bodied organisms may be more sensitive to temperature. © 2018 The
Black, Robert X. [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
The project examines long-term changes in extreme temperature episodes (ETE) associated with planetary climate modes (PCMs) in both the real atmospheric and climate model simulations. The focus is on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs) occurring over the continental US during the past 60 winters. No significant long-term trends in either WWs or CAOs are observed over the US. The annual frequency of CAOs is affected by the (i) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the Southeast US and (ii) Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern over the Northwest US. WW frequency is influenced by the (i) NAO over the eastern US and (ii) combined influence of PNA, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO over the southern US. The collective influence of PCMs accounts for as much as 50% of the regional variability in ETE frequency. During CAO (WW) events occurring over the southeast US, there are low (high) pressure anomalies at higher atmospheric levels over the southeast US with oppositely-signed pressure anomalies in the lower atmosphere over the central US. These patterns lead to anomalous northerly (for CAOs) or southerly (for WWs) flow into the southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. One distinction is that CAOs involve substantial air mass transport while WW formation is more local in nature. The primary differences among event categories are in the origin and nature of the pressure anomaly features linked to ETE onset. In some cases, PCMs help to provide a favorable environment for event onset. Heat budget analyses indicate that latitudinal transport in the lower atmosphere is the main contributor to regional cooling during CAO onset. This is partly offset by adiabatic warming associated with subsiding air. Additional diagnoses reveal that this latitudinal transport is partly due to the remote physical influence of a shallow cold pool of air trapped along the east side of the Rocky Mountains. ETE and PCM behavior is also
Salomon, R.; Fernandez, N. B.; van Elk, M.; Vachicouras, N.; Sabatier, F.; Tychinskaya, A.; Llobera, J.; Blanke, O.
Experimentally induced sensorimotor conflicts can result in a loss of the feeling of control over a movement (sense of agency). These findings are typically interpreted in terms of a forward model in which the predicted sensory consequences of the movement are compared with the observed sensory consequences. In the present study we investigated whether a mismatch between movements and their observed sensory consequences does not only result in a reduced feeling of agency, but may affect motor perception as well. Visual feedback of participants’ finger movements was manipulated using virtual reality to be anatomically congruent or incongruent to the performed movement. Participants made a motor perception judgment (i.e. which finger did you move?) or a visual perceptual judgment (i.e. which finger did you see moving?). Subjective measures of agency and body ownership were also collected. Seeing movements that were visually incongruent to the performed movement resulted in a lower accuracy for motor perception judgments, but not visual perceptual judgments. This effect was modified by rotating the virtual hand (Exp.2), but not by passively induced movements (Exp.3). Hence, sensorimotor conflicts can modulate the perception of one’s motor actions, causing viewed “alien actions” to be felt as one’s own. PMID:27225834
Full Text Available Perception, cognition, and emotion do not operate along segregated pathways; rather, their adaptive interaction is supported by various sources of evidence. For instance, the aesthetic appraisal of powerful mood inducers like music can bias the facial expression of emotions towards mood congruency. In four experiments we showed similar mood-congruency effects elicited by the comfort/discomfort of body actions. Using a novel Motor Action Mood Induction Procedure, we let participants perform comfortable/uncomfortable visually-guided reaches and tested them in a facial emotion identification task. Through the alleged mediation of motor action induced mood, action comfort enhanced the quality of the participant's global experience (a neutral face appeared happy and a slightly angry face neutral, while action discomfort made a neutral face appear angry and a slightly happy face neutral. Furthermore, uncomfortable (but not comfortable reaching improved the sensitivity for the identification of emotional faces and reduced the identification time of facial expressions, as a possible effect of hyper-arousal from an unpleasant bodily experience.
Qin, P.; Xie, Z.
Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.
Nugent, Stephen D; Kaats, Gilbert R; Preuss, Harry G
A general assumption is that the body mass index (BMI) reflects changes in fat mass (FM). However, it fails to distinguish the type of weight that is lost or gained-fat mass (FM) or fat-free mass (FFM). The BMI treats both changes the same although they have opposite health consequences. The objective of this study was to propose a more precise measure, a body composition change index (BCCI), which distinguishes between changes in FM and FFM, and this study compares it with using the BMI as an outcome measure. Data were obtained from 3,870 subjects who had completed dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) total body scans at baseline and end-of-study when participating in a variety of weight-loss interventions. Since height remained constant in this adult cohort, changes in the BMI corresponded with scale weight changes (r = 0.994), allowing BMI changes to be converted to "lbs." to match the statistic used for calculation of the BCCI. The BCCI is calculated by scoring increases in FFM (lbs.) and decreases in FM (lbs.) as positive outcomes and scoring decreases in FFM and increases in FM as negative outcomes. The BCCI is the net sum of these calculations. Differences between scale weight changes and BCCI values were subsequently compared to obtain "discordance scores." Discordance scores ranged from 0.0 lbs. to >30.0 lbs. with a mean absolute value of between the two measures of 7.79 lbs. (99% confidence interval: 7.49-8.10, p BCCI and the BMI to evaluate the efficacy of weight loss interventions. If assessing changes in body composition is a treatment goal, use of the BMI could result in significantly erroneous conclusions.
Lee, J.; Kim, J.; Kang, H.
Recently, extreme nitrogen(N) deposition events are observed in Arctic regions where over 90% of the annual N deposition occurred in just a few days. Since Arctic ecosystems are typically N-limited, input of extremely high amount of N could substantially affect ecosystem processes. CH4 is a potent greenhouse gas that has 25 times greater global warming potential than CO2 over a 100-year time frame. Ammonium is known as an inhibitor of methane oxidation and nitrate also shows inhibitory effect on it in temperate ecosystems. However, effects of N addition on Arctic ecosystems are still elusive. We conducted a lab-scale incubation experiment with moist acidic tundra (MAT) soil from Council, Alaska to investigate the effect of extreme N deposition events on methane oxidation. Zero point five % methane was added to the head space to determine the potential methane oxidation rate of MAT soil. Three treatments (NH4NO3-AN, (NH4)2SO4-AS, KNO3-PN) were used to compare effects of ammonium, nitrate and salts. All treatments were added in 3 levels: 10μg N gd.w-1(10), 50μg N gd.w-1(50) and 100μg N gd.w-1(100). AN10 and AN50 increased methane oxidation rate 1.7, 6% respectively. However, AN100 shows -8.5% of inhibitory effect. In AS added samples, all 3 concentrations (AN10, AN50, AN100) stimulated methane oxidation rate with 4.7, 8.9, 4%, respectively. On the contrary, PN50 (-9%) and PN100 (-59.5%) exhibited a significant inhibitory effect. We also analyzed the microbial gene abundance and community structures of methane oxidizing bacteria using a DNA-based fingerprinting method (T-RFLP) Our study results suggest that NH4+ can stimulate methane oxidation in Arctic MAT soil, while NO3- can inhibit methane oxidation significantly.
Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik
inundation risk. Hence different statistical downscaling methods have been applied. Furthermore, the effect of the emission scenario, the spatial resolution of the RCM and the interdependency between RCMs are discussed. Taking this information into account a 2‐year event is expected to increase by 20% over...... a projection period of 100 years. This approximates the variation within one natural oscillation cycle, indicating that it is crucial to understand and account for the future multi‐decadal variations of extreme precipitation. The study estimates the expected magnitude of variation in design rainfall for urban...
Crystal Romeo Upperman
Full Text Available Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989 that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate, including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events; responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.
Ph.d. afhandlingen “Musculoskeletal Extremity Injuries in School-aged Children” er en undersøgelse af forekomsten af skader i arme og ben relateret til fysisk aktivitet. Baggrunden for studiet er, at på trods af de mange gavnlige effekter af at børn er fysisk aktive, så kan ’bivirkningen’ være...... risikoen var højest ved sportsdeltagelse i fritiden (1.57 per 1000 deltagelse i sport). Mest udtalt var risikoen i boldsports grene (især fodbold og håndbold) og til springgymnastik. Resultaterne har tilføjet en bredere indsigt i skadesbilledet i en gruppe af 6-12 årige skolebørn. De generelle fund fra...
Knobel, Robin B.; Holditch-Davis, Diane; Schwartz, Todd A.; Wimmer, John E.
Objective This study evaluated peripheral vasoconstriction in ELBW infants when body temperature decreased during the first 12-hours of life. Design An exploratory, within-subjects design with 10 ELBW infants. Abdominal and foot temperatures were measured every minute. Peripheral vasoconstriction (abdominal > peripheral temperature by 2? C) and abdominal-peripheral temperature difference were also evaluated. Results Abdominal and peripheral temperatures were significantly correlated within ea...
Verheijde, Joseph L; White, Fred; Tompkins, James; Dahl, Peder; Hentz, Joseph G; Lebec, Michael T; Cornwall, Mark
To investigate reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) in individuals affected by stroke. The secondary objective was to test the validity and sensitivity of a single-item linear analog scale (LAS) of function. Prospective cohort reliability and validation study. A single rehabilitation department in an academic medical center. Forty-three individuals receiving neurorehabilitation for lower extremity dysfunction after stroke were studied. Their ages ranged from 32 to 95 years, with a mean of 70 years; 77% were men. Test-retest reliability was assessed by calculating the classical intraclass correlation coefficient, and the Bland-Altman limits of agreement. Validity was assessed by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient between the instruments. Sensitivity to change was assessed by comparing baseline scores with end of treatment scores. Measurements were taken at baseline, after 1-3 days, and at 4 and 8 weeks. The LEFS, Short-Form-36 Physical Function Scale, Berg Balance Scale, Six-Minute Walk Test, Five-Meter Walk Test, Timed Up-and-Go test, and the LAS of function were used. The test-retest reliability of the LEFS was found to be excellent (ICC = 0.96). Correlated with the 6 other measures of function studied, the validity of the LEFS was found to be moderate to high (r = 0.40-0.71). Regarding the sensitivity to change, the mean LEFS scores from baseline to study end increased 1.2 SD and for LAS 1.1 SD. LEFS exhibits good reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change in patients with lower extremity impairments secondary to stroke. Therefore, the LEFS can be a clinically efficient outcome measure in the rehabilitation of patients with subacute stroke. The LAS is shown to be a time-saving and reasonable option to track changes in a patient's functional status. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Hare-Bruun, Helle; Flint, Anne; Heitmann, Berit L
born in 1922, 1932, 1942, or 1952. A baseline health examination and a dietary history interview were carried out in 1987 and 1988; a follow-up health examination was performed in 1993 and 1994. RESULTS: Positive associations between GI and changes in body weight (DeltaBW), percentage body fat (Delta......%BF), and waist circumference (DeltaWC) were observed in women after adjustment for covariates. Significant GI x sex x physical activity interactions for DeltaBW, Delta%BF, and DeltaWC were observed, and the associations in the sedentary women were particularly positive. No significant associations with GI were...
Jensen, Elizabeth T; van der Burg, Jelske W; O'Shea, Thomas M; Joseph, Robert M; Allred, Elizabeth N; Heeren, Tim; Leviton, Alan; Kuban, Karl C K
To assess the association between maternal prepregnancy body mass index and adequacy of pregnancy weight gain in relation to neurocognitive function in school-aged children born extremely preterm. Study participants were 535 ten-year-old children enrolled previously in the prospective multicenter Extremely Low Gestational Age Newborns cohort study who were products of singleton pregnancies. Soon after delivery, mothers provided information about prepregnancy weight. Prepregnancy body mass index and adequacy of weight gain were characterized based on this information. Children underwent a neurocognitive evaluation at 10 years of age. Maternal prepregnancy obesity was associated with increased odds of a lower score for Differential Ability Scales-II Verbal IQ, for Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment-II measures of processing speed and visual fine motor control, and for Wechsler Individual Achievement Test-III Spelling. Children born to mothers who gained an excessive amount of weight were at increased odds of a low score on the Oral and Written Language Scales Oral Expression assessment. Conversely, children whose mother did not gain an adequate amount of weight were at increased odds of a lower score on the Oral and Written Language Scales Oral Expression and Wechsler Individual Achievement Test-III Word Reading assessments. In this cohort of infants born extremely preterm, maternal obesity was associated with poorer performance on some assessments of neurocognitive function. Our findings are consistent with the observational and experimental literature and suggest that opportunities may exist to mitigate risk through education and behavioral intervention before pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Cornelissen, Katri; Bester, Andre; Cairns, Paul; Tovee, Martin; Cornelissen, Piers
In this cross-sectional study, we investigated the influence of personal BMI on body size estimation in 42 women who have symptoms of anorexia (referred to henceforth as anorexia spectrum disorders, ANSD), and 100 healthy controls. Low BMI control participants over-estimate their size and high BMI controls under-estimate, a pattern which is predicted by a perceptual phenomenon called contraction bias. In addition, control participants' sensitivity to size change declines as their BMI increase...
Safaraly-Oghlu Babayev, Elchin
geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 on the mentioned systems in middle-latitude location. In these studies, direct and indirect indicators of space weather influence are used: 1) Indirect indicators are essentially epidemiological data showing the temporal and spatial distribution of defined events or health disturbances involving considerable numbers of test subjects over several years. The indirect indicators used in this paper are: temporal distribution of emergency calls and hospital admissions (sudden cardiac deaths, acute myocardial infarction mortality and morbidity, so on), dynamics of traffic accidents, epidemics, etc.; 2) Direct indicators. They are physiological parameters, which can be objectively verified and which are acquired either in vivo, directly on the subject (heart rate and its variability, blood pressure, human brain's functional state, human psycho-emotional state, so on), or in vitro by laboratory diagnostics or tissue investigations. The potential co-factors, e.g. terrestrial (tropospheric) weather, seasons, demographic factor, working environment, etc., were also considered in the interpretation of the indicators. Spectral analyses have revealed certain chronobiological periodicities in the considered data. There are also provided results of daily medical-physiological experiments (acupunctural studies of conductivity of the biologically active points of human body in days with different geomagnetic activity levels) conducted in the Laboratory of Heliobiology, Baku, Azerbaijan, as a part of collaborative studies with Russian institutions such as IZMIRAN and Space Research Institute. They show on the latitudinal and longitudinal dependence of space weather influence. Our complex studies enabled to conclude that not only extremely high, but also very low levels of geomagnetic activity may have signifi- cant influence on human health state, especially, in the cardio-vascular health state and human brain's bioelectrical activity.
Bamunawala, R. M.J.; Hettiarachchi, S. S.L.; Samarawickrama, S. P.; Wikramanayake, P. N.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Baptiste, Alison
Climate change and climate change driven impacts are most widely argued topics among contemporary researchers and scientists. Broadly there are two schools of thought that present entirely contrasting perceptions about the overall concept of climate change and its impacts. While one of the
Zhu, Lianhua; Li, Yun; Jiang, Zhihong
The observed intensity, frequency, and duration (IFD) of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold (the 95th percentile), and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model (WSM) and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961-2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile-quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.
Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.
Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.
Koppes, L.L.J.; de Boer, M.R.; Samoocha, D.; Kreuk, I.M.; Pouwer, F.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Mechelen, W.
Five personality characteristics were assessed in 312 adolescent boys and girls, and investigated in relation to the change in body fat percentage over 22 years of follow up. Boys with low levels of Social Inadequacy and girls with high levels of Recalcitrance showed relatively large gains in body
Wang, Q; Hassager, C; Ravn, Pernille
Total and regional body composition were measured in 373 early postmenopausal women aged 49-60 y by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry to evaluate whether the changes in body composition in the early postmenopausal years are related to menopause itself or merely to age. Both fat mass and fat...
Graf, Christophe E; Herrmann, François R; Spoerri, Adrian
PURPOSE: This study evaluates the relationship between body mass index (BMI), fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) changes and mortality in persons ≥65 years. METHODS: Adults ≥65 years with at least two body composition measurements (BCM) between 1990 and 2011 were included. We......: FFMI loss is related to increased mortality in older persons....
Xu, Juan; Ke, Zhonghe; Xia, Jianhong; He, Fang; Bao, Baolong
Flatfishes with more body height after metamorphosis should be better adapted to a benthic lifestyle. In this study, we quantified the changes in body height during metamorphosis in two flatfish species, Paralichthys olivaceus and Platichthys stellatus. The specific pattern of cell proliferation along the dorsal and ventral edge of the body to allow fast growth along the dorsal/ventral axis might be related to the change of body height. Thyroid hormone (T4 and T3) and its receptors showed distribution or gene expression patterns similar to those seen for the cell proliferation. 2-Mercapto-1-methylimidazole, an inhibitor of endogenous thyroid hormone synthesis, inhibited cell proliferation and decreased body height, suggesting that the change in body shape was dependent on the local concentration of thyroid hormone to induce cell proliferation. In addition, after treatment with 2-mercapto-1-methylimidazole, zebrafish larvae were also shown to develop a slimmer body shape. These findings enrich our knowledge of the role of thyroid hormone during flatfish metamorphosis, and the role of thyroid hormone during the change of body height during post-hatching development should help us to understand better the biology of metamorphosis in fishes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Dubnov-Raz, Gal; Azar, Meital; Reuveny, Ronen; Katz, Uriel; Weintraub, Michael; Constantini, Naama W
This study examined the effects of physical activity on the fitness, body composition and mental health of children after cancer or bone marrow transplantation. We focused on 22 children aged from seven to 14 years who had received chemotherapy and/or bone marrow transplantation in our medical centre. Ten children took part in a six-month exercise programme, and 12 children who did not exercise formed the control group. At baseline and at the end of the trial, we measured aerobic fitness, body composition, bone density and assessed the child's mood and quality of life. We pooled all participants together post hoc to compare changes in fitness with the various study outcomes. We found no differences between groups in changes in fitness, body composition or mental health indices. Significant correlations were found between changes in aerobic fitness and changes in lean body mass (r = 0.74, p = 0.002), bone mineral content (r = 0.57, p = 0.026) and femoral neck bone mineral density (r = 0.59, p = 0.027) in all participants. Group-based exercise training did not improve aerobic fitness in children after cancer or bone marrow transplantation. However, changes in fitness throughout the study period were associated with changes in body composition and bone health in all participants. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution in Japan attributed to extreme-rainfall-induced slope failures in the future. For this purpose, a regression relationship between the slope failure probability and the subsequent sediment yield was developed by using sediment yield observations from 59 dams throughout Japan. The slope failure probability accounts for the effects of topography (as relief energy, geology and hydro-climate variations (hydraulic gradient changes due to extreme rainfall variations and determines the potential slope failure occurrence with a 1-km resolution. The applicability of the developed relationship was then validated by comparing the simulated and observed sediment yields in another 43 dams. To incorporate the effects of a changing climate, extreme rainfall variations were estimated by using two climate change scenarios (the MRI-RCM20 Ver.2 model A2 scenario and the MIROC A1B scenario for the future and by accounting for the slope failure probability through the effect of extreme rainfall on the hydraulic gradient. Finally, the developed slope failure hazard-sediment yield relationship was employed to estimate the potential sediment yield distribution under a changing climate in Japan.
Time series analyses of annual sediment yields covering 15–20 years in 59 dams reveal that extreme sedimentation events have a high probability of occurring on average every 5–7 years. Therefore, the extreme-rainfall-induced slope failure probability with a five-year return period has a statistically robust relationship with specific sediment yield observations (with r2 = 0.65. The verification demonstrated that the model is effective for use in simulating specific sediment yields with r2 = 0.74. The results of the GCM scenarios suggest that the sediment yield issue will be critical in Japan in the future. When the spatially averaged sediment
Honoré, B; Frandsen, P C
Light-absorption, c.d. and fluorescence of the bilirubin-albumin complex were investigated at extreme alkaline pH. Above pH 11.1 albumin binds the bilirubin molecule, twisted oppositely to the configuration at more neutral pH. On the basis of light-absorption it is shown that two alkaline...... transitions occur. The first alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.3 and 11.8, co-operatively dissociating at least six protons. The second alkaline transition takes place at pH between 11.8 and 12.0. It probably implies a reversible unfolding of the albumin molecule, increasing the distance...
Full Text Available The heat wave that occurred in Europe in the summer of 2003 led health authorities to develop Prevention Plans to minimize the impacts of heat waves on citizens´ health. Spain developed, based on existing research, a High Temperature Prevention Plan, which was in force until 2015, when it was updated. This paper summarizes studies carried out in our country that led to the updating of this Plan. We also analyze some studies conducted in Spain regarding cold waves and their attributable mortality; the temporal evolution of heat impacts according to age groups; the detection of specially susceptible groups; the geographic variability of the health effects of heat waves and their applicability to the improvement of Prevention Plans; and future lines of research in the field of extreme temperatures and their impact on health.
Coplen, T.B.; Neiman, P.J.; White, A.B.; Landwehr, J.M.; Ralph, F.M.; Dettinger, M.D.
With a new automated precipitation collector we measured a remarkable decrease of 51??? in the hydrogen isotope ratio (?? 2H) of precipitation over a 60-minute period during the landfall of an extratropical cyclone along the California coast on 21 March 2005. The rapid drop in ??2H occurred as precipitation generation transitioned from a shallow to a much deeper cloud layer, in accord with synoptic-scale ascent and deep "seeder-feeder" precipitation. Such unexpected ?? 2H variations can substantially impact widely used isotope-hydrograph methods. From extreme ??2H values of -26 and -78???, we calculate precipitation temperatures of 9.7 and -4.2??C using an adiabatic condensation isotope model, in good agreement with temperatures estimated from surface observations and radar data. This model indicates that 60 percent of the moisture was precipitated during ascent as temperature decreased from 15??C at the ocean surface to -4??C above the measurement site.
Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.
The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the
Kulbartz-Klatt, Y J; Florin, I; Pook, M
This study was designed to investigate the impact of mood changes on body width estimation in women with bulimia nervosa. A pre-post controlled experimental design was chosen. Mood changes were induced in 40 women with bulimia nervosa, 20 women with panic disorder and 40 women with no diagnosis of a psychological disorder. A combination of autobiographical memory method and music induction method was used to induce positive and negative mood, respectively. Before and after mood induction a video distorting technique was used for body width estimation. Induction of negative mood increased and induction of positive mood decreased the body width estimations of women with bulimia. Patients with panic disorder and 'healthy' controls did not show these changes after mood induction. The findings suggest that change in mood state rather than the more habitual mood quality are relevant for bulimic women's body perception.
Gasco, Margarita; Briñol, Pablo; Horcajo, Javier
Attitude change toward body image: The role of elaboration on attitude strength. Attitudes toward body image have been shown to play a central role in the understanding and treating of eating disorders. In the present research, participants' attitudes toward their body image were changed through a persuasive procedure involving high mental elaboration (self-persuasion) or through a less engaging procedure involving less active participation (passive exposure). As expected, participants in these two groups showed more favourable attitudes toward their bodies than those in the control group. Despite that both treatments were equally efficient in changing attitudes, the strength associated with those attitudes was significantly different depending on the amount of thinking involved in the process of change. Specifically, attitudes were stronger in the high rather than low thinking group of treatment. This finding is important because the strength of the attitude may determine the long-term consequences of an intervention.
Ferreira, Mariana C.; Bevilaqua-Grossi, Débora; Dach, Fabíola É.; Speciali, José G.; Gonçalves, Maria C.; Chaves, Thais C.
Background: Migraine and temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are reported to be associated. However, there are no reports on the association among migraines, TMDs and changes in body posture. Objectives : To assess changes in body posture in women suffering migraines with or without TMD compared with a control group. Method: Sixty-six women with a mean age of 18 to 45 years participated in this study. The groups were composed of 22 volunteers with migraine and TMD (MTMD), 22 volunteers ...
Stevenson, J L; Krishnan, S; Stoner, M A; Goktas, Z; Cooper, J A
Identifying critical periods of greater weight gain could provide useful information to combat the obesity epidemic. We tested whether body weight (BW), body fat percentage (BF%) and blood pressure (BP) changed during the holiday season (thanksgiving to new year's day) and the impact of regular exercise on these parameters. A total of 48 males and 100 females (age 18-65 years) with a mean body mass index of 25.1±0.5 kg/m(2) were evaluated in mid-November (visit 1) and early January (visit 2; across 57±0.5 days). Anthropometric data, BF%, BP and self-reported exercise were recorded. Participants showed significant increases in BW (0.78±0.1 kg, Pholiday weight gain and was not a significant predictor for changes in BW or BF%. Data are reported as means±s.e. Our participants gained an average of 0.78 kg, which indicates the majority of average annual weight gain (1 kg/y) reported by others may occur during the holiday season. Obese participants are most at risk as they showed the greatest increases in BF%. Initial BW, not exercise, significantly predicted BF% and BW gain.
Parker, Joseph; Maruyama, Munetoshi
Jubogaster towai gen. et sp. nov. is described from a colony of Pheidole xanthogaster Wilson (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in the Peruvian Amazon. The new taxon is amongst the largest pselaphine species known. Its transverse head implies an affinity with Trogastrini (Pselaphinae: Euplectitae), but J. towai lacks typical characters diagnostic for trogastrines and possesses others, such as a Jubini-like pronotum and equally-sized tarsal claws, that obscure its systematic relationships. To place J. towai phylogenetically, we sequenced a fragment of 28s rDNA for the new species and a range of other pselaphines, including members of Trogastrini and other tribes of Euplectitae. The topology produced by this analysis supports the inclusion of Jubogaster in Trogastrini, thereby indicating that morphology within this tribe can be more malleable than previously thought. Many of the largest pselaphine taxa are guests of social insect colonies. We discuss whether an evolutionary correlation (or causal relationship) exists between body enlargement and an inquilinous lifestyle in Pselaphinae.
Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)
Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin
This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.
Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Endo, H.; Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Takayabu, I.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Kawazoe, S.
Precipitation in summer plays a vital role in sustaining life across East Asia, but the heavy rain that is often generated during this period can also cause serious damage. Developing a better understanding of the features and occurrence frequency of this heavy rain is an important element of disaster prevention. We investigated future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan using large ensemble dataset which simulated by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with a horizontal resolution of 20km (NHRCM20). This dataset called database for Policy Decision making for Future climate changes (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for the impact assessment studies and adaptation planning to global warming. The future climate experiments assume the global mean surface air temperature rise 2K and 4K from the pre-industrial period. We investigated using this dataset future changes of precipitation in summer over the Japanese archipelago based on observational locations. For mean precipitation in the present-day climate, the bias of the rainfall for each month is within 25% even considering all members (30 members). The bias at each location is found to increase by over 50% on the Pacific Ocean side of eastern part of Japan and interior locations of western part of Japan. The result in western part of Japan depends on the effect of the elevations in this model. The future changes in mean precipitation show a contrast between northern and southern Japan, with the north showing a slight increase but the south a decrease. The future changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the national average of Japan increase at 2K and 4K simulations compared with the present-day climate, respectively. The authors were supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.
Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.
Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.
Buta, Constantin; Maftei, Carmen
Over time, Dobrogea territory has faced with fluctuations more or less severe in terms of basic parameters such as temperature, precipitations and annual discharges of rivers. It is highlighted the trend of aridity in the area, because of the fact that Dobrogea receives small amounts of water, ranging between 200-450 mm/year, with annual average temperatures lying around and above the average of 11°C. This fact is also proceeding from the many studies realized by other researchers. For this area there are also characteristic torrents (form of rainfall during the summer), the storms and floods accompanying these torrents of water on the narrow valleys, often intermittent, sometimes causing significant damage and even fatalities. Torrential rainfalls and flash floods are sometimes very strong and produce catastrophic damages, as happened at Constanta (in 2001), at Tulcea (in 13.07.2004 and in 29.08.2004), at Tuzla, Pantelimon, Agigea and others. At the opposite pole of the sporadic excess rainfall is drought, which is the largest meteorological phenomenon (both in time and in space) and the most obvious in Dobrogea climate. Drought represents the main argument of semi aridity of this region and the most visible image component which is observed by the inhabitants of this environment. Correlation and study of hydro-meteorological extremes is performed using indices that take into account meteorological and hydrological parameters such as precipitations, temperature, discharges of rivers etc. Hydro-meteorological indices used for this study are: Angot rainfall index; Peguy Climograms; de Martonne drought index; Thornthwaite index Moduli coefficients and Deciles. According to the studied indices, for the accomplishment of this present paper, we can say that Dobrogea is among the driest regions in the country. History of drought in Romania includes many dry years, of which are mentioned: 1894, 1888, 1904, 1918, 1934, 1945, but the droughts years with greater durations
An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent
Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.
Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José
Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.
A number of researchers from different social scientific disciplines present a view in response to the question 'what will happen in our society if the climate suddenly changes?'. They answer questions such as: How will people respond to real risks such as imminent flooding? What are the economic consequences? How will it affect sectors such as inland shipping and coastal tourism? What are the costs of adapting our country to rising sea levels or sudden cold? As a society what do we consider to be socially and publicly acceptable? Can we still insure ourselves? Who will assume responsibility and what are the tasks of the various parties involved? The book merely sets the scene. Social sciences research into climate change has only just started. Besides providing answers to the question about the social and public implications of abrupt climate change, the book calls for a greater involvement of social scientists in climate change issues
Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)
Kushner, R.F.; Kunigk, A.; Alspaugh, M.; Andronis, P.T.; Leitch, C.A.; Schoeller, D.A.
The bioelectrical-impedance-analysis (BIA) method accurately measures body composition in weight-stable subjects. This study validates the use of BIA to measure change in body composition. Twelve obese females underwent weight loss at a mean rate of 1.16 kg/wk. Body composition was measured by deuterium oxide dilution (D2O), BIA, and skinfold anthropometry (SFA) at baseline and at 5% decrements in weight. Highly significant correlations were obtained between D2O and BIA (r = 0.971) and between D2O and SFA (r = 0.932). Overall, BIA predicted change in fat-free mass with greater accuracy (to 0.4 kg) and precision (+/- 1.28 kg) than did anthropometry (to 0.8 kg and +/- 2.58 kg, respectively). We conclude that BIA is a useful clinical method for measuring change in body composition
Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantificatio...... during the past 30 years caused an increase in flood exposure that is comparable to what is expected in the RCP4.5 (+2°C) climate scenario.......In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantification...
Decker Leslie M
Full Text Available Abstract Background Wearing a harness during treadmill walking ensures the subject's safety and is common practice in biomedical engineering research. However, the extent to which such practice influences gait is unknown. This study investigated harness-related changes in gait patterns, as evaluated from lower extremity kinematics during treadmill walking. Findings Healthy subjects (n = 10 walked on a treadmill at their preferred speed for 3 minutes with and without wearing a harness (LiteGait®, Mobility Research, Inc.. In the former condition, no weight support was provided to the subjects. Lower extremity kinematics was assessed in the sagittal plane from the mean (meanRoM, standard deviation (SDRoM and coefficient of variation (CoVRoM of the hip, knee, and ankle ranges of motion (RoM, as well as from the sample entropy (SampEn and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LyE of the joints' angles. Wearing the harness increased the meanRoM of the hip, the SDRoM and the CoVRoM of the knee, and the SampEn and the LyE of the ankle. In particular, the harness effect sizes for both the SampEn and the LyE of the ankle were large, likely reflecting a meaningful decline in the neuromuscular stabilizing control of this joint. Conclusions Wearing a harness during treadmill walking marginally influences lower extremity kinematics, resulting in more or less subtle changes in certain kinematic variables. However, in cases where differences in gait patterns would be expressed through modifications in these variables, having subjects walk with a harness may mask or reinforce such differences.
Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results...... from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series......, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e...
Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte
Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...
Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard
Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000
Serra-Maluquer, X; Mencuccini, M; Martínez-Vilalta, J
Understanding which variables affect forest resilience to extreme drought is key to predict future dynamics under ongoing climate change. In this study, we analyzed how tree resistance, recovery and resilience to drought have changed along three consecutive droughts and how they were affected by species, tree size, plot basal area (as a proxy for competition) and climate. We focused on the three most abundant pine species in the northeast Iberian Peninsula: Pinus halepensis, P. nigra and P. sylvestris during the three most extreme droughts recorded in the period 1951-2010 (occurred in 1986, 1994, and 2005-2006). We cored trees from permanent sample plots and used dendrochronological techniques to estimate resistance (ability to maintain growth level during drought), recovery (growth increase after drought) and resilience (capacity to recover pre-drought growth levels) in terms of tree stem basal area increment. Mixed-effects models were used to determine which tree- and plot-level variables were the main determinants of resistance, recovery and resilience, and to test for differences among the studied droughts. Larger trees were significantly less resistant and resilient. Plot basal area effects were only observed for resilience, with a negative impact only during the last drought. Resistance, recovery and resilience differed across the studied drought events, so that the studied populations became less resistant, less resilient and recovered worse during the last two droughts. This pattern suggests an increased vulnerability to drought after successive drought episodes.
Meron Teferi Taye
New hydrological insights: The review illustrates some discrepancy among research outputs. For the historical context, this is partially related to the period and length of data analyzed and the failure to consider the influence of multi-decadal oscillations. Consequently, we show that annual cycle of Blue Nile flow has not changed in the past five decades. For the future context, discrepancy is partially attributable to the various and differing climate and hydrological models included and the downscaling techniques applied. The need to prudently consider sources of uncertainty and potential causes of bias in historical trend and climate change impact research is highlighted.
Zhang, Peizhen; Sui, Xuemei; Hand, Gregory A; Hébert, James R; Blair, Steven N
Both baseline cardiorespiratory fitness and adiposity predict the risk of cancer mortality. However, the effects of changes in these two factors over time have not been evaluated thoroughly. The aim of this study was to examine the independent and joint associations of changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition on cancer mortality. The cohort consisted of 13,930 men (initially cancer-free) with two or more medical examinations from 1974 to 2002. Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed by a maximal treadmill exercise test, and body composition was expressed by body mass index (BMI) and percent body fat. Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition between the baseline and the last examination were classified into loss, stable, and gain groups. There were 386 deaths from cancer during an average of 12.5 yr of follow-up. After adjusting for possible confounders and BMI, change hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of cancer mortality were 0.74 (0.57-0.96) for stable fitness and 0.74 (0.56-0.98) for fitness gain. Inverse dose-response relationships were observed between changes in maximal METs and cancer mortality (P for linear trend = 0.05). Neither BMI change nor percent body fat change was associated with cancer mortality after adjusting for possible confounders and maximal METs change. In the joint analyses, men who became less fit had a higher risk of cancer mortality (P for linear trend = 0.03) compared with those who became more fit, regardless of BMI change levels. Being unfit or losing cardiorespiratory fitness over time was found to predict cancer mortality in men. Improving or maintaining adequate levels of cardiorespiratory fitness appears to be important for decreasing cancer mortality in men.
Devlin, Brooke L; Kingsley, Michael; Leveritt, Michael D; Belski, Regina
Devlin, BL, Kingsley, M, Leveritt, MD, and Belski, R. Seasonal changes in soccer players' body composition and dietary intake practices. J Strength Cond Res 31(12): 3319-3326, 2017-The aims of this study were 2-fold: to determine seasonal changes in dietary intake and body composition in elite soccer players and to evaluate the influence of self-determined individual body composition goals on dietary intake and body composition. This longitudinal, observational study assessed body composition (total mass, fat-free soft tissue mass, and fat mass) using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and dietary intake (energy and macronutrients) via multiple-pass 24-hour recalls, at 4 time points over a competitive season in elite soccer players from one professional club in the Australian A-League competition. Self-reported body composition goals were also recorded. Eighteen elite male soccer players took part (25 ± 5 years, 180.5 ± 7.4 cm, 75.6 ± 6.5 kg). Majority (≥67%) reported the goal to maintain weight. Fat-free soft tissue mass increased from the start of preseason (55,278 ± 5,475 g) to the start of competitive season (56,784 ± 5,168 g; p nutrition recommendations. The self-reported body composition goals did not strongly influence dietary intake practices or changes in body composition. This study has demonstrated that body composition changes over the course of a soccer season are subtle in elite soccer players despite relatively low self-reported intake of energy and carbohydrate.
De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P
Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.
Preservation of top soil is critical for the long term sustainability of agricultural productivity, food security, and biodiversity. However, today’s growing population and increasing demand for food and fiber is stressing the agricultural soil and water resources. Climate change imposes additional ...
Pedersen, Birgith; Delmar, Charlotte; Lörincz, Tamás
for attention on younger premenopausal women given chemotherapy. Weight need to be monitored for at least 2 years as short-term changes may be caused by increased body water, whereas long-term changes seem to be related with increased fat mass essential for risking recurrence and early death. IMPLICATIONS...... as free text, 19 articles were selected for further investigation. RESULTS: The scoping review illustrates how findings in weight and body composition changes fluctuate over time as illustrated in 4 measure points: short term, 1 year, 18 months/2 years, and long term. The studies displayed differences...
Pieroni, Luca; Salmasi, Luca
This paper evaluates the causal relationship between smoking and body weight through two waves (2004-2006) of the British Household Panel Survey. We model the effect of changes in smoking habits, such as quitting or reducing, and account for the heterogeneous responses of individuals located at different points of the body mass distribution by quantile regression. We test our results by means of a large set of control groups and investigate their robustness by using the changes-in-changes estimator and accounting for different thresholds to define smoking reductions. Our results reveal the positive effect of quitting smoking on weight changes, which is also found to increase in the highest quantiles, whereas the decision to reduce smoking does not affect body weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Athletes need a balanced body composition in order to achieve maximum performance. Especially dehydration reduces power and endurance during physical exercise. Monitoring the body composition, with a focus on body fluid, may help to avoid reduction in performance and other health problems.For this, a potential measurement method is bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS. BIS is a simple, non-invasive measurement method that allows to determine different body compartments (body fluid, fat, fat-free mass. However, because many physiological changes occur during physical exercise that can influence impedance measurements and distort results, it cannot be assumed that the BIS data are related to body fluid loss alone.To confirm that BIS can detect body fluid loss due to physical exercise, finite element (FE simulations were done. Besides impedance, also the current density contribution during a BIS measurement was modeled to evaluate the influence of certain tissues on BIS measurements.Simulations were done using CST EM Studio (Computer Simulation Technology, Germany and the Visible Human Data Set (National Library of Medicine, USA. In addition to the simulations, BIS measurements were also made on athletes. Comparison between the measured bioimpedance data and simulation data, as well as body weight loss during sport, indicates that BIS measurements are sensitive enough to monitor body fluid loss during physical exercise.doi:10.5617/jeb.178 J Electr Bioimp, vol. 2, pp. 79-85, 2011
Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; David Chen, Yongqin; Chen, Xiaohong
The purpose of this study was to statistically examine changes of surface air temperature in time and space and to analyze two factors potentially influencing air temperature changes in China, i.e., urbanization and net solar radiation. Trends within the temperature series were detected by using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. The scientific problem this study expected to address was that what could be the role of human activities in the changes of temperature extremes. Other influencing factors such as net solar radiation were also discussed. The results of this study indicated that: (1) increasing temperature was observed mainly in the northeast and northwest China; (2) different behaviors were identified in the changes of maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Maximum temperature seemed to be more influenced by urbanization, which could be due to increasing urban albedo, aerosol, and air pollutions in the urbanized areas. Minimum temperature was subject to influences of variations of net solar radiation; (3) not significant increasing and even decreasing temperature extremes in the Yangtze River basin and the regions south to the Yangtze River basin could be the consequences of higher relative humidity as a result of increasing precipitation; (4) the entire China was dominated by increasing minimum temperature. Thus, we can say that the warming process of China was reflected mainly by increasing minimum temperature. In addition, consistently increasing temperature was found in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, which have the potential to enhance the melting of permafrost in these areas. This may trigger new ecological problems and raise new challenges for the river basin scale water resource management.
Li, Xing; Chen, Haishan; Wei, Jiangfeng; Hua, Wenjian; Sun, Shanlei; Ma, Hedi; Li, Xiao; Li, Jingping
Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. Previous studies have demonstrated that LUCC significantly impacts both mean and extreme temperatures. In this study, we explored the multimodel performance of simulating LUCC-induced asymmetric effects on the different percentiles of maximum temperatures (Tmax) as well as the possible reasons for these effects using results from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Four state-of-art Earth system models (which provide the necessary data) are selected for investigating this issue. In general, all the cases of the model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory show robust asymmetric responses between the 90th (TX90P) and 10th percentiles (TX10P) of Tmax, mainly due to cropland expansions, especially over India, the Sahel, and some parts of North America. However, weak and insignificant responses are shown for both the TX90P and TX10P in other models. The different changes in the Tmax variability among the models are primarily responsible for the occurrence of asymmetric features. Furthermore, by decomposing the Tmax changes over three typical regions, we analyze the potential causes for the inconsistencies among these models' results and find two crucial processes, that is, the repartitioning of the turbulent heat fluxes and the changes of the diurnal cycle variability due to LUCC. Whether these processes are pronounced determines the occurrence of the asymmetric Tmax responses. Overall, this study provides a critical clue for reducing the uncertainties of the LUCC effects on temperature extremes, which should be evaluated against observations.
Full Text Available What a hydrological model displays is the relationships between the output and input in daily, monthly, yearly and other temporal scales. In the case of climate change or other environment changes, the input of the hydrological model may show a gradual or abrupt change. There have been numerous documented studies to explore the response of output of the hydrological models to the change of the input with scenario simulation. Most of the studies assumed that the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes will remain, which may be true for the gradual change of the input. However, under extreme conditions the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes may be completely changed. Taking an example of the Allen's formula to calculate crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0 as a simple hydrological model, we analyze the alternation of the extreme in ET0 from 1955 to 2012 at the Chongling Experimental Station located in Hebei Province, China. The relationships between ET0 and the meteorological factors for the average values, minimum (maximum values at daily, monthly and annual scales are revealed. It is found the extreme of the output can follow the extreme of the input better when their relationship is more linear. For non-liner relationship, the extreme of the input cannot at all be reflected from the extreme of the output. Relatively, extreme event at daily scale is harder to be shown than that at monthly scale. The result implicates that a routine model may not be able to catch the response to extreme events and it is even more so as we extrapolate models to higher temperature/CO2 conditions in the future. Some possible choices for the improvements are suggested for predicting hydrological extremes.
D'Amato, Gennaro; Baena-Cagnani, Carlos E; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Nunes, Carlos; Ansotegui, Ignacio; D'Amato, Maria; Liccardi, Gennaro; Sofia, Matteo; Canonica, Walter G
The prevalence of asthma and allergic diseases has increased dramatically during the past few decades not only in industrialized countries. Urban air pollution from motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase.Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergic diseases, the rising trend can be explained only in changes occurred in the environment. Despite some differences in the air pollution profile and decreasing trends of some key air pollutants, air quality is an important concern for public health in the cities throughout the world.Due to climate change, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanized areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health.The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Associations between thunderstorms and asthma morbidity in pollinosis subjects have been also identified in multiple locations around the world.Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens especially in presence of specific weather conditions.The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known yet. The consequences on health vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, and exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases.Factor clouding the issue is that laboratory evaluations do not reflect what happens during natural exposition, when atmospheric pollution mixtures in polluted cities are inhaled. In addition, it is important to recall that an individual's response to pollution exposure depends on the source and components of air pollution, as well as meteorological conditions. Indeed, some air pollution-related incidents with asthma aggravation do not depend
Kosciolek, Derek J.; Sonar, Ajay; Lepak, Lori A.; Schnatz, Peter; Bendoym, Igor; Brown, Mia C.; Koder, Ronald L.; Crouse, David T.
In this project we develop a handheld, portable, highly selective and sensitive chem/biosensor that has potential applications in both airborne and water-based environmental sensing. The device relies on a plasmonic chip of subwavelength-scale periodic gold rods engineered to resonate in the near infrared. The chip is functionalized with a novel class of proteins that exhibit large conformational changes upon binding to a specific target analyte. The subsequent change in local refractive index near the surface of the gold is one to two orders of magnitude greater than current conventional methods, which produces a readily measurable 5 to 10 percent difference in light transmission. This allows us to forgo traditional, bulky tabletop setups in favor of a compact form factor. Using commercially available optics to construct a transmission-based optical train, measured changes in bulk refractive index are presented here. While synthesis of binding protein efforts are focused on heme as analyte for proof of concept validation, the functionalized protein can be engineered to pair with a wide variety of analytes with minimal alterations to the plasmonic chip or device design. Such flexibility allows for this device to potentially meet the needs of first responders and health care professionals in a multitude of scenarios.
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Full Text Available DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2014v16s1p79 The aim of the present study was to establish whether changes in health related behaviors are associated with changes in the satisfaction/dissatisfaction with body weight in youths. It was a prospective study that performed a secondary analysis of data from Project “Saúde na Boa”, which included youths attending night classes in secondary public schools in Recife in the state of Pernambuco and Florianópolis in the state of Santa Catarina. Data on the youths’ body type (thinness or excess weight and degree of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with body weight and lifestyle (level of physical activity, participation in physical education classes, sedentary behavior and snacks, soda and alcohol intake were collected at 10 schools from each town (five in the intervention group and five in the control group. The percentages of youths dissatisfied with their body weight were 50.5% and 48.6% at baseline and after intervention, respectively. The percentage of youths with body dissatisfaction due to thinness decreased (21.4% vs. 16.5%, while the percentage of youths with body dissatisfaction due to excess weight increased (29.1% vs. 32.1%. Approximately 41.2% of the youths with body dissatisfaction due to thinness and 18.3% of those dissatisfied due to excess weight became satisfied with their body weight after intervention. The intervention targeting health-related behaviors induced changes in the youths’ degree of satisfaction with their body weight.
Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo
Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess
Nakajima, Mikio; Aso, Shotaro; Yasunaga, Hideo; Shirokawa, Masamitsu; Nakano, Tomotsugu; Miyakuni, Yasuhiko; Goto, Hideaki; Yamaguchi, Yoshihiro
Short-distance air medical transport for adult emergency patients does not significantly affect patients' body temperature and outcomes. This study aimed to examine the influence of long-distance air medical transport on patients' body temperatures and the relationship between body temperature change and mortality. We retrospectively enrolled consecutive patients transferred via helicopter or plane from isolated islands to an emergency medical center in Tokyo, Japan between April 2010 and December 2016. Patients' average body temperature was compared before and after air transport using a paired t-test, and corrections between body temperature change and flight duration were calculated using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Multivariable logistic regression models were then used to examine the association between body temperature change and in-hospital mortality. Of 1253 patients, the median age was 72 years (interquartile range, 60-82 years) and median flight duration was 71 min (interquartile range, 54-93 min). In-hospital mortality was 8.5%, and average body temperature was significantly different before and after air transport (36.7 °C versus 36.3 °C; difference: -0.36 °C; 95% confidence interval, -0.30 to -0.42; p 38.0 °C) or normothermia (36.0-37.9 °C) before air transport and hypothermia after air transport (odds ratio, 2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.63; p = 0.009), and (ii) winter season (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-4.27; p = 0.030). Physicians should consider body temperature change during long-distance air transport in patients with not only hypothermia but also normothermia or hyperthermia before air transport, especially in winter. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Meerlo, P; vandenHoofdakker, RH; Koolhaas, JM; Daan, S
Previous work has shown that social stress in rats (i.e., defeat by an aggressive male conspecific) causes a variety of behavioral and physiological changes including alterations in the daily rhythms of body temperature and activity. To study the role of the circadian pacemaker in these
Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.
This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate
Özcan, O.; Ozcan, O.
The numerous complexities associated with bridge scour have caused scour to be one of the most active topics of stream geomorphic research. The assessment of local scouring mechanism around bridge piers provides information for decision-making regarding the pile footing design, predicting the safety of bridges under critical scoured conditions, and as a result, may help prevent unnecessary loses. In the study, bridge design plans and HEC-RAS modeling were used for the assessment of changes in stream geomorphic conditions. The derived fluvial scour depths were compared with the field measurements and the empirical formula which is based on stream flow discharge rate, streambed condition and shape of river. Preliminary results revealed that bridge damage resulting from the flood event in 2003 induced substantial scour around bridge piles. Afterwards, significant stream bed change was observed under the influence of fluvial scour in another flood occurred in 2009. Consequently, geomorphic conditions of the stream bed should be considered in the structural design of the bridges.
Min Joo Kim
Full Text Available Objectives. Because thyroid hormone is an important determinant of body weight and basal metabolic rate, we investigated the changes in the basal metabolic rate and body composition sequentially after treatment for Graves’ disease. Methods. A prospective cohort study was performed with six women newly diagnosed with Graves’ disease. During a 52-week treatment of methimazole, body composition, resting respiratory expenditure (REE, and handgrip strength were measured consecutively. Results. After methimazole treatment, body weight was initially increased (0–8 weeks, subsequently plateaued (8–24 weeks, and gradually decreased in the later period (24–52 weeks despite the decreased food intake. The measured REE was 40% higher than the predicted REE at baseline, and it gradually decreased after treatment. REE positively correlated with thyroid hormone levels, peripheral deiodinase activity, and thyroid’s secretory capacity. Body compositional analyses showed that the fat mass increased during an earlier period (4–12 weeks, while the lean mass increased significantly during the later period (26–52 weeks. Consistent with the lean mass changes, muscle strength also significantly increased during the later period. Conclusions. Treatment of Graves’ disease increased body weight and fat mass transiently with decreased REE. However, long-term compositional changes moved in a beneficial direction increasing lean mass and reinforcing muscle strength, following decreasing fat percentages.
Elisa Pinheiro Ferrari
The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between the perception of body image and the stages of behavioral changes related to physical activity among Physical Education Students. Two hundred thirty six students were included. We measured the perception of body image (silhouettes scale, the stages of changes in behavior related to physical activity using a questionnaire developed by Marcus et al., and socio-demographic variables (gender, age, parental education, marital status, course, employment situation, housing, period of study and income. We used descriptive analysis, chi-square test, Fischer’s exact test, crude and adjusted multinomial regression to estimate the odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI. The prevalence of physically inactive behavior was 18.2% for males and 23.9% for females. Dissatisfaction with body image was associated with the stages of behavioral changes in females, with women with physically inactive behavior having greater odds of experiencing dissatisfaction with their body image, both for underweight (OR: 9.69; 95% CI: 1.05-89.30 and overweight (OR: 5.49; 95% CI: 1.07-28.11 when compared with women who were satisfied with their body image. We suggest the development of interventions aimed at the adoption of regular physical activity in order to promote greater satisfaction with body image.
Wu, Y.; Wu, S.; Wen, J.; Xu, M.; Tan, J.
The Yangtze River is the longest river in China, with its river basin covering an area of 1.8 million sq km, encompassing about one fifth of China's total territory, one third of the nation's total population, and one quarter of its total arable land. Flooding resulted from extreme precipitation has always been a major problem for the middle and lower part of the YRB, particularly during the monsoon season of eastern China from May to August. Meanwhile, the relatively dense population and large cities in this region make the floods more deadly and costly. In this study we aim to establish the temporal and spatial patterns of changes in extreme precipitation in the middle and lower YRB using daily precipitation data from 71 stations in the area from 1960 to 2012. It is hoped that this study will provide useful information for better flood control. In this study, we defined and examined three major indices. Extreme precipitation frequency is defined as number of days per year with precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile for the base period of 1961 - 1990. Extreme precipitation amount is defined as the total amount of precipitation from these days. Extreme precipitation intensity is defined as the amount divided by frequency. We used non-parametric Thiel-Sen method to estimate the rate of change at each station, and Mann-Kendall test for the significance of the trend. Using Thiessen polygons, we also calculated the area-weighted mean of station trends to get the total trend for the entire study area. Abrupt changes in the time series was detected by using Mann-Kendall test and the Moving-t test methods. Our results show that there is an increasing trend of for the frequency, amount, and intensity of extreme precipitation in the study region. Of the three indicators, the extreme precipitation amount increased most, and its abrupt change point happened in1987. Between the period before and after 1987, the mean annual amount, intensity and frequency of extreme
Tucker, Compton J.; Yager, Karina; Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.
Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to
Lynda G Boothroyd
Full Text Available Systematic differences between populations in their preferences for body size may arise as a result of an adaptive 'prepared learning' mechanism, whereby cues to health or status in the local population are internalized and affect body preferences. Alternatively, differences between populations may reflect their 'visual diet' as a cognitive byproduct of mere exposure. Here we test the relative importance of these two explanations for variation in body preferences. Two studies were conducted where female observers were exposed to pictures of high or low BMI women which were either aspirational (healthy, attractive models in high status clothes or non-aspirational (eating disordered patients in grey leotards, or to combinations thereof, in order to manipulate their body-weight preferences which were tested at baseline and at post-test. Overall, results showed good support for visual diet effects (seeing a string of small or large bodies resulted in a change from pre- to post-test whether the bodies were aspirational or not and also some support for the associative learning explanation (exposure to aspirational images of overweight women induced a towards preferring larger bodies, even when accompanied by equal exposure to lower weight bodies in the non-aspirational category. Thus, both influences may act in parallel.
Toyoda, Keiko; Ida, Masahiro; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Harada, Junta; Tada, Shimpei
Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 400 patients with degenerative disc disease. Signal changes and their sites in the vertebral body were classified and referred to narrowing of the intervertebral disc space. MR findings were compared with those of plain roentgenograms of the lumbar spine. Signal changes in the vertebral body were noted in 83 cases (102 vertebral bodies). Low-intensity abnormality on both T1- and T2-weighted images (WI) was the most common finding, and was most frequently seen at the end plate and/or the angle. These changes were correlated with narrowing of the disc space and osteosclerosis on the plain roentgenogram of the lumbar spine. Signal changes occasionally occurred in the inner region of the vertebral body, and these lesions tended to show a high-intensity abnormality on T1-WI. We conclude that signal changes in degenerative disc disease are not specific, but are sometimes difficult to distinguish from the signal changes in other conditions such as spinal tumor or bone marrow disorder. (author)
Guo, Zixiao; Li, Xinnian; He, Ziwen; Yang, Yuchen; Wang, Wenqing; Zhong, Cairong; Greenberg, Anthony J; Wu, Chung-I; Duke, Norman C; Shi, Suhua
The projected increases in sea levels are expected to affect coastal ecosystems. Tropical communities, anchored by mangrove trees and having experienced frequent past sea level changes, appear to be vibrant at present. However, any optimism about the resilience of these ecosystems is premature because the impact of past climate events may not be reflected in the current abundance. To assess the impact of historical sea level changes, we conducted an extensive genetic diversity survey on the Indo-Malayan coast, a hotspot with a large global mangrove distribution. A survey of 26 populations in six species reveals extremely low genome-wide nucleotide diversity and hence very small effective population sizes (N e ) in all populations. Whole-genome sequencing of three mangrove species further shows the decline in N e to be strongly associated with the speed of past changes in sea level. We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises. Well-planned coastal development near mangrove forests will be essential to avert this crisis. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Full Text Available Our previous studies showed that the extreme high yield tropical rice (Padi Panjang produced 3-8 t ha-1 without fertilizers. We also found that the rice yield did not correlate with some soil properties. We thought that it may be due to ability of root in affecting soil properties in the root zone. Therefore, we studied the extent of rice root in affecting the chemical properties of soil solution surrounding the root zone. A homemade rhizobox (14x10x12 cm was used in this experiment. The rhizobox was vertically segmented 2 cm interval using nylon cloth that could be penetrated neither root nor mycorrhiza, but, soil solution was freely passing the cloth. Three soils of different origins (Kuin, Bunipah and Guntung Papuyu were used. The segment in the center was sown with 20 seeds of either Padi Panjang or IR64 rice varieties. After emerging, 10 seedlings were maintained for 5 weeks. At 4 weeks after sowing, some chemical properties of the soil solution were determined. These were ammonium (NH4+, nitrate (NO3-, phosphorus (P and iron (Fe2+ concentrations and pH, electric conductivity (EC and oxidation reduction potential (ORP. In general, the plant root changed solution chemical properties both in- and outside the soil rhizosphere. The patterns of changes were affected by the properties of soil origins. The release of exudates and change in ORP may have been responsible for the changes soil solution chemical properties.
Zukowski, Lisa A; Hass, Chris J; Shechtman, Orit; Christou, Evangelos A; Tillman, Mark D
This study compared how wheelchair propulsion styles affect changes in percentage of time spent in extreme wrist orientations, which have been associated with median nerve injury, after a fatiguing bout of propulsion. Twenty novice, non-disabled adult males learned arcing (ARC) and semicircular (SEMI) propulsion styles and utilised each to perform a wheelchair fatigue protocol. ARC and SEMI did not significantly differ in terms of changes after the fatigue protocol in percentage of time spent in extreme flexion/extension or radial/ulnar deviation at the push phase beginning or end. A pattern was observed, although not significant, of greater increases in percentage of time spent in extreme wrist extension and ulnar deviation during the push phase beginning and ulnar deviation during the push phase end while utilising SEMI relative to ARC. This study evinces that individual differences are greater than observed changes in extreme wrist orientations for both propulsion styles. Practitioner Summary: How wheelchair propulsion styles change with fatigue in terms of extreme wrist orientations was examined. This study evinces that individual differences are greater than observed changes in extreme wrist orientations for both propulsion styles and point towards the need for future research on individual differences utilising propulsion styles.
Cadena, Viviana; Porter, Warren P.; Kearney, Michael R.
Many terrestrial ectotherms are capable of rapid colour change, yet it is unclear how these animals accommodate the multiple functions of colour, particularly camouflage, communication and thermoregulation, especially when functions require very different colours. Thermal benefits of colour change depend on an animal's absorptance of solar energy in both UV–visible (300–700 nm) and near-infrared (NIR; 700–2600 nm) wavelengths, yet colour research has focused almost exclusively on the former. Here, we show that wild-caught bearded dragon lizards (Pogona vitticeps) exhibit substantial UV–visible and NIR skin reflectance change in response to temperature for dorsal but not ventral (throat and upper chest) body regions. By contrast, lizards showed the greatest temperature-independent colour change on the beard and upper chest during social interactions and as a result of circadian colour change. Biophysical simulations of heat transfer predicted that the maximum temperature-dependent change in dorsal reflectivity could reduce the time taken to reach active body temperature by an average of 22 min per active day, saving 85 h of basking time throughout the activity season. Our results confirm that colour change may serve a thermoregulatory function, and competing thermoregulation and signalling requirements may be met by partitioning colour change to different body regions in different circumstances.
Colyer, Steffi L; Roberts, Simon P; Thompson, Dylan; Stokes, Keith A; Bilzon, James L J; Salo, Aki I T; Robinson, Jonathan B
Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) imaging is considered to provide a valid and reliable estimation of body composition when stringent scanning protocols are adopted. However, applied practitioners are not always able to achieve this level of control and the subsequent impact on measurement precision is not always taken into account when evaluating longitudinal body composition changes. The primary aim of this study was to establish the reliability of DXA in an applied elite sport setting to investigate whether real body composition changes can be detected. Additionally, the performance implications of these changes during the training year were investigated. Forty-eight well-trained athletes (from four diverse sports) underwent two DXA scans using a ‘real-world’ approach (with limited pre-scan controls), typically within 48 h, to quantify typical error of measurement (TEM). Twenty-five athletes underwent further scans, before and after specific training and competition blocks. ‘True’ body composition changes were evaluated using 2 × TEM thresholds. Twelve bob skeleton athletes also performed countermovement jump and leg press tests at each time point. Many ‘true’ body composition changes were detected and coincided with the primary training emphases (e.g. lean mass gains during hypertrophy-based training). Clear relationships (r ± 90% CI) were observed between performance changes (countermovement jump and leg press) and changes in lean mass (0.53 ± 0.26 and 0.35 ± 0.28, respectively) and fat mass (−0.44 ± 0.27 and −0.37 ± 0.28, respectively). DXA was able to detect real body composition changes without the use of stringent scanning controls. Associations between changes in body composition and performance demonstrated the potential influence of these changes on strength and power indices. (paper)
Jakobsen, Marianne Uhre; Dethlefsen, Claus; Due, Karen Margrete
We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers.......We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers....
Davidson, Debra J
Reflexivity is an important sociological lens through which to examine the means by which people engage in actions that contribute to social reproduction or social elaboration. Reflexivity theorists have largely overlooked the central place of emotions in reflexive processing, however, thus missing opportunities to enhance our understanding of reflexivity by capitalizing on recent scholarship on emotions emanating from other fields of inquiry. This paper explores the role of emotion in reflexivity, with a qualitative analysis of social responses to hydraulic fracturing in Alberta, Canada, utilizing narrative analysis of long-form interviews with rural landowners who have experienced direct impacts from hydraulic fracturing, and have attempted to voice their concerns in the public sphere. Based on interviews with a selection of two interview participants, the paper highlights the means by which emotions shape reflexivity in consequential ways, beginning with personal and highly individualized emotional responses to contingent situations, which then factor into the social interactions engaged in the pursuit of personal projects. The shared emotional context that emerges then plays a substantial role in shaping outcomes and their implications for social stasis or change. This study exemplifies the extent to which reflexive processing in response to breaches in the social order can be emotionally tumultuous affairs, constituting a significant personal toll that many may be unwilling to pay. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2018.
Gerst, Michael D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Borsuk, Mark E.
The potential for climate catastrophes, represented by 'fat-tailed' distributions on consequences, has attracted much attention recently. To date, however, most integrated assessment models have either been largely deterministic or deterministic with ex-post sensitivity analysis. The conclusions of such analyses are likely to differ from those employing models that accurately characterize society's joint preferences concerning time and risk, especially when distributions are fat-tailed. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted from Nordhaus's DICE model, we show that failing to accurately account for risk can lead to substantial underestimation of the net benefits of greenhouse gas abatement. A robust finding of our analysis is that a lenient 'policy ramp' emissions reduction strategy is preferable over a more aggressive strategy-such as that advocated by the Stern Review-only if the model does not account for uncertainty about the climate system, the carbon cycle and economic damages, and specifies a consumption discount rate that is counterfactually higher than the historical global weighted average cost of capital of 4.0%. In the debate over uncertainty and time discounting, our results imply that what matters most in climate change assessment is the inclusion and particular specification of uncertainty rather than the precise choice of discount rate.
Mann, M. E.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kornhuber, K.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.; Coumou, D.
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer are typically associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers. Such disturbances are favoured by the phenomenon of Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally-averaged surface temperature field. Examining future state-of-the-art (CMIP5) climate model projections we find that such events are likely to increase by 50% over the next century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models, with some models predicting a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century. These results are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the prominence of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century.
Dugan, Jenifer E.; Hubbard, David M.; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S.
Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal
Abbott, Samantha; Julian, Jason P.; Kamarinas, Ioannis; Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Fuller, Ian C.; McColl, Samuel T.; Dymond, John R.
The interaction of climate, geomorphology, and land use dictates catchment sediment production and associated river sediment loads. Accordingly, the resilience of catchments to disturbances can be assessed with suspended sediment regimes. This case study in the hill country of the lower North Island of New Zealand was a decade-long examination of the short- and long-term effects of an extreme storm event on sediment supply and exhaustion in the Oroua and Pohangina catchments, two catchments that have experienced intense land use changes and frequent broad-scale landslides. Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, a program developed to characterize hydrologic regimes, was used to analyze daily suspended sediment records over a period of a decade in order to characterize sediment regimes of the Oroua and Pohangina. An aggregated data set of sediment-bearing events for the period of record was analyzed to examine the suspended sediment response of individual storms relative to runoff magnitudes. The findings of this study demonstrate that large storms that generate extreme landsliding and flooding have the ability to produce enough sediment to temporarily convert catchments from a supply-limited state to a transport-limited state. Landsliding and thus sediment supply was disproportionately high in locations where livestock grazing occurred on steep hillslopes. The timing and intensity of previous storms, or the antecedent catchment condition, was also shown to influence the response of the catchments. In both catchments, suspended sediment loads were elevated for a period of 4 years following the landslide-generating February 2004 storm. The methods and findings we present are useful for assessing the resilience of catchments exposed to frequent disturbances such as land use changes and landslides.
Quesnel, Kimberly J; Ajami, Newsha K
Public awareness of water- and drought-related issues is an important yet relatively unexplored component of water use behavior. To examine this relationship, we first quantified news media coverage of drought in California from 2005 to 2015, a period with two distinct droughts; the later drought received unprecedentedly high media coverage, whereas the earlier drought did not, as the United States was experiencing an economic downturn coinciding with a historic presidential election. Comparing this coverage to Google search frequency confirmed that public attention followed news media trends. We then modeled single-family residential water consumption in 20 service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area during the same period using geospatially explicit data and including news media coverage as a covariate. Model outputs revealed the factors affecting water use for populations of varying demographics. Importantly, the models estimated that an increase of 100 drought-related articles in a bimonthly period was associated with an 11 to 18% reduction in water use. Then, we evaluated high-resolution water consumption data from smart meters, known as advanced metering infrastructure, in one of the previously modeled service areas to evaluate breakpoints in water use trends. Results demonstrated that whereas nonresidential commercial irrigation customers responded to changes in climate, single-family residential customers decreased water use at the fastest rate following heavy drought-related news media coverage. These results highlight the need for water resource planners and decision makers to further consider the importance of effective, internally and externally driven, public awareness and education in water demand behavior and management.
Carneiro, Angelo; Byrne, James V. [ohn Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford Neurovascular and Neuroradiology Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Surgical Sciences, Oxford (United Kingdom); Rane, Neil; Kueker, Wilhelm; Cellerini, Martino; Corkill, Rufus [John Radcliffe Hospital, Department of Neuroradiology, Oxford (United Kingdom)
This study assessed volume changes of unruptured large and giant aneurysms (greatest diameter >20 mm) after treatment with flow diverter (FD) stents. Clinical audit of the cases treated in a single institution, over a 5-year period. Demographic and clinical data were retrospectively collected from the hospital records. Aneurysm volumes were measured by manual outlining at sequential slices using computerised tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance (MR) angiography data. The audit included eight patients (seven females) with eight aneurysms. Four aneurysms involved the cavernous segment of the internal carotid artery (ICA), three the supraclinoid ICA and one the basilar artery. Seven patients presented with signs and symptoms of mass effect and one with seizures. All but one aneurysm was treated with a single FD stent; six aneurysms were also coiled (either before or simultaneously with FD placement). Minimum follow-up time was 6 months (mean 20 months). At follow-up, three aneurysms decreased in size, three were unchanged and two increased. Both aneurysms that increased in size showed persistent endosaccular flow at follow-up MR; in one case, failure was attributed to suboptimal position of the stent; in the other case, it was attributed to persistence of a side branch originating from the aneurysm (similar to the endoleak phenomenon of aortic aneurysms). At follow-up, five aneurysms were completely occluded; none of these increased in volume. Complete occlusion of the aneurysms leads, in most cases, to its shrinkage. In cases of late aneurysm growth or regrowth, consideration should be given to possible endoleak as the cause. (orig.)
Wade, Charles E.; Moran, Megan M.; Wang, Tommy J.; Baer, Lisa A.; Yuan, Fang; Fung, Cyra K.; Stein, T. Peter; Dalton, Bonnie P. (Technical Monitor)
Exposure to hyper-gravity results in a number of metabolic changes associated with increases in catecholamines and corticosterone. These changes result in a loss of body and fat mass. To assess the role of hormones derived from the adrenal gland in the changes we studied sham operated (SO) and adrenalectomized (ADX) male rats exposed to hyper-gravity of 2 G for 14 days. Control groups at 1 G were also studied. Urinary epinephrine (EPI) and corticosterone (CORT) were reduced in ADX animals. In response to 2 G there was an increase in urinary EPI and CORT in SO rats, while levels were unchanged in ADX animals. Both groups of animals had similar increases in urinary norepinephrine levels. The reductions of body mass gain in response to 2 G were the same in both groups. The decrease in relative fat mass was greater in ADX. Energy intake and expenditure were not different between groups. In response of returning to 1 G for 24 hours and reexposure to hyper-gravity there were no differences between SO and ADX in the changes of food and water intake, body mass or activity. The changes in metabolism with exposure to hyper-gravity do not appear to require hormones derived from the adrenal gland. The increase in lypolysis and alterations body and fat mass appear to be modulated by sympathetically derived norepinehrine.
Takegaki, T; Kaneko, T; Matsumoto, Y
Field and laboratory studies were conducted to examine the effects of nest availability and body size on changes in male mating tactics from sneaking to nest-holding in the dusky frillgoby Bathygobius fuscus. In the field, the body size of nest-holding males decreased from early to mid-breeding season, suggesting the possibility of a change in the tactics of sneaker males to nest-holding. Many sneaker males did not use vacant spawning nests even when size-matched nests were available, but they continued to reproduce as sneakers. Similarly, in aquarium experiments with available vacant nests, some sneaker males became nest-holders irrespective of their body size, but some did not. These results showed that nest availability is not a limiting factor for changes in tactics by sneaker males in this species. Because tactic-unchanged sneaker males were co-housed with larger nest-holding males in the tanks, the body size of nearby nest-holding males may have affected the decision to change tactics for sneaker males. Moreover, smaller individuals among tactic-changed males tended to spend more time until spawning, probably because they had relatively larger costs and smaller benefits of reproduction as nest-holding males compared to larger males. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Full Text Available Cognitive control impairment is a typical symptom largely reported in populations with neurological disorders. Previous studies have provided evidence about the changes in cognitive control induced by mind-body training. However, the neural correlates underlying the effect of extensive mind-body practice on cognitive control remain largely unknown. Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, we characterized dynamic fluctuations in large-scale intrinsic connectivity networks associated with mind-body practice, and examined their differences between healthy controls and Tai Chi Chuan (TCC practitioners. Compared with a control group, the TCC group revealed significantly decreased fractional Amplitude of Low Frequency Fluctuations (fALFF in the bilateral frontoparietal network, default mode network and dorsal prefrontal-angular gyri network. Furthermore, we detected a significant association between mind-body practice experience and fALFF in the default mode network, as well as an association between cognitive control performance and fALFF of the frontoparietal network. This provides the first evidence of large-scale functional connectivity in brain networks associated with mind-body practice, shedding light on the neural network changes that accompany intensive mind-body training. It also highlights the functionally plastic role of the frontoparietal network in the context of the “immune system” of mental health recently developed in relation to flexible hub theory.
Wei, Gao-Xia; Gong, Zhu-Qing; Yang, Zhi; Zuo, Xi-Nian
Cognitive control impairment is a typical symptom largely reported in populations with neurological disorders. Previous studies have provided evidence about the changes in cognitive control induced by mind-body training. However, the neural correlates underlying the effect of extensive mind-body practice on cognitive control remain largely unknown. Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, we characterized dynamic fluctuations in large-scale intrinsic connectivity networks associated with mind-body practice, and examined their differences between healthy controls and Tai Chi Chuan (TCC) practitioners. Compared with a control group, the TCC group revealed significantly decreased fractional Amplitude of Low Frequency Fluctuations (fALFF) in the bilateral frontoparietal network, default mode network and dorsal prefrontal-angular gyri network. Furthermore, we detected a significant association between mind-body practice experience and fALFF in the default mode network, as well as an association between cognitive control performance and fALFF of the frontoparietal network. This provides the first evidence of large-scale functional connectivity in brain networks associated with mind-body practice, shedding light on the neural network changes that accompany intensive mind-body training. It also highlights the functionally plastic role of the frontoparietal network in the context of the "immune system" of mental health recently developed in relation to flexible hub theory.
Nawrot, Rafał; Albano, Paolo G; Chattopadhyay, Devapriya; Zuschin, Martin
Body size is a synthetic functional trait determining many key ecosystem properties. Reduction in average body size has been suggested as one of the universal responses to global warming in aquatic ecosystems. Climate change, however, coincides with human-enhanced dispersal of alien species and can facilitate their establishment. We address effects of species introductions on the size structure of recipient communities using data on Red Sea bivalves entering the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. We show that the invasion leads to increase in median body size of the Mediterranean assemblage. Alien species are significantly larger than native Mediterranean bivalves, even though they represent a random subset of the Red Sea species with respect to body size. The observed patterns result primarily from the differences in the taxonomic composition and body-size distributions of the source and recipient species pools. In contrast to the expectations based on the general temperature-size relationships in marine ectotherms, continued warming of the Mediterranean Sea indirectly leads to an increase in the proportion of large-bodied species in bivalve assemblages by accelerating the entry and spread of tropical aliens. These results underscore complex interactions between changing climate and species invasions in driving functional shifts in marine ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).
Rudman, Laurie A; McLean, Meghan C; Bunzl, Martin
A naturalistic investigation of New Jersey residents, both before and after they experienced Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, examined support for politicians committed or opposed to policies designed to combat climate change. At Time 1, before both hurricanes, participants showed negative implicit attitudes toward a green politician, but at Time 2, after the hurricanes, participants drawn from the same cohort showed a reversed automatic preference. Moreover, those who were significantly affected by Hurricane Sandy were especially likely to implicitly prefer the green politician, and implicit attitudes were the best predictor of voting after the storms, whereas explicit climate-change beliefs was the best predictor before the storms. In concert, the results suggest that direct experience with extreme weather can increase pro-environmentalism, and further support conceptualizing affective experiences as a source of implicit attitudes.
Langhammer, Jakub; Vilímek, Vít
The paper presents the analysis of anthropogenical modifications of the landscape in relation to the course and consequences of floods. The research was conducted in the Otava river basin which represents the core zone of the extreme flood in August 2002 in Central Europe. The analysis was focused on the key indicators of landscape modification potentially affecting the runoff process - the long-term changes of land-use, changes of land cover structure, land drainage, historical shortening of the river network and the modifications of streams and floodplains. The information on intensity and spatial distribution of modifications was derived from different data sources--historical maps, available GIS data, remote sensing and field mapping. The results revealed a high level of spatial diversity of anthropogenical modifications in different parts of the river basin. The intensive modifications in most of indicators were concentrated in the lowland region of the river basin due to its agricultural use; however important changes were also recorded in the headwater region of the basin. The high spatial diversity of the modifications may result in their varying effect on the course and consequences of floods in different parts of the river basin. This effect is demonstrated by the cluster analysis based on the matrix of indicators of stream and floodplain modification, physiogeographical characteristics and geomorphological evidences of the flood in August 2002, derived from the individual thematic layers using GIS.
CT scans of 279 normal subjects and 78 patients with a pancreatic head mass were reviewed. The mean width of the pancreatic body in normal subjects was 15.8±2.9 mm, but the width decreased with age. The pancreatic head to body width ratio (H/B ratio) was constant (1.45±0.03). In 56 patients with carcinoma, the pancreatic body width decreased as tumor size increased and uniform atrophy with continuous beading duct was common in large carcinomas. The H/B ratio in small carcinomas (<2 cm), however, was significantly smaller than normal (p<0.05) and an enlarged pancreatic body was seen in 55 percent of these cases. The pancreatic body width in focal inflammatory masses was large compared to that in carcinomas of comparable size; the H/B ratio (1.57) was close to normal and the duct caliber to gland width ratio was low (0.16), even with large lesions. Non-uniform pancreatic body with discontinuous duct was most commonly associated with pseudocyst. Characterization of the CT appearance of secondary changes in the pancreatic body may help to improve the diagnosis of pancreatic head mass. (orig.)
Miyata, Hiroshi; Sugimura, Keijiro; Motoori, Masaaki; Fujiwara, Yoshiyuki; Omori, Takeshi; Yanagimoto, Yoshitomo; Ohue, Masayuki; Yasui, Masayoshi; Miyoshi, Norikatsu; Tomokuni, Akira; Akita, Hirofumi; Kobayashi, Shogo; Takahashi, Hidenori; Yano, Masahiko
The aim of this study was to assess changes in body composition during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and investigate whether chemotherapy-related toxicities affect body composition in patients with esophageal cancer. In ninety-four patients who underwent NAC for esophageal cancer, body composition was assessed before and after NAC. Associations between the incidence of toxicities and change in body composition during NAC were investigated. Forty-four (46.8%) and 50 (53.2%) out of 94 patients were defined as having sarcopenia before and after NAC, respectively. There was no significant difference in the incidence of any toxicity pre-treatment between patients with sarcopenia and those without sarcopenia. No significant reduction in skeletal muscle mass or fat mass was observed in the patients during NAC (p=0.501 and p=0.072). However, patients who experienced grade 4 neutropenia or febrile neutropenia during NAC showed a significantly larger decrease in change of skeletal muscle mass compared to patients who did not experience those toxicities (p=0.013 and 0.036, respectively). The incidence of serious adverse events such as febrile neutropenia and grade 4 neutropenia is associated with a significant reduction of skeletal muscle mass during NAC. We should make an effort to reduce the incidence of adverse events in order to maintain an appropriate body composition during NAC. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.
Full Text Available The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs and applied on the station-based, observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs were summarized in high, mean, and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the hydrological model.
Steinsbekk, Silje; Odegård, Rønnaug; Wichstrøm, Lars
Research supports the use of family-based interventions in the treatment of obesity in children, but there is a lack of knowledge about what factors affect parents' ability to carry out the lifestyle changes necessary to reduce their child's obesity. The aim of the present study was to examine whether parents' self-efficacy, perceived emotional barriers, subjective norms, and attitudes could predict change in their children's body fat at 6 month and 2 year follow-ups after a family-based treatment of obesity. Body Mass Index Standard Deviation Scores (BMI SDS) were calculated and body fat (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) were measured in 99 treatment-seeking children with obesity (ages 7-12; 48 girls, 51 boys; mean BMI SDS = 2.99) at baseline, after 6 month and after 2 year follow-up. Parental cognitions regarding diet and physical activity were examined by parent-completed questionnaires. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test whether the selected health cognitions could predict treatment outcome. Parental perceived emotional barriers was a significant predictor of change in body fat at 6 month (β = -.32, p = .001) and 2 year (β = -.38, p = .002) follow-up when the initial body fat values were controlled. Self-efficacy, subjective norms and attitudes did not improve the amount of variance explained. Parents' perceived emotional barriers significantly predict change in total body fat in children treated for obesity. In order to increase treatment-efficacy, perceived emotional barriers should be addressed. Â© 2011 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity . Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
van Santen, HM; Geskus, Ronald B; Raemaekers, Steven; van Trotsenburg, A S Paul; Vulsma, Thomas; van der Pal, Helena J H; Caron, Hubert N; Kremer, Leontien C M
BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported changes in the body mass index (BMI) with time in childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) during follow-up. The limitations of these studies include that they described only a subgroup of survivors or used questionnaires with self-reported heights and weights.
van Santen, Hanneke M.; Geskus, Ronald B.; Raemaekers, Steven; van Trotsenburg, A. S. Paul; Vulsma, Thomas; van der Pal, Helena J. H.; Caron, Hubert N.; Kremer, Leontien C. M.
Previous studies have reported changes in the body mass index (BMI) with time in childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) during follow-up. The limitations of these studies include that they described only a subgroup of survivors or used questionnaires with self-reported heights and weights. The goal of
Rutten, Erica P A; Calverley, Peter M A; Casaburi, Richard
The follow-up of the ECLIPSE study, a prospective longitudinal study to identify and define parameters that predict disease progression over 3 years in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), allows the examination of the effect of body composition changes on COPD-related outcomes....
Wathne, Kjetil; Mburu, Christina Brux; Middelthon, Anne-Lise
Globally, paediatric obesity causes widespread concern, and the role of ethnicity is an important focus. Investigating how culture can mediate health-related behaviour through ideas about bodies, food and physical activity, while addressing a notion that the Pakistani community in Norway is particularly conservative and slow to change, this…
Brouwer, C. A. J.; Gietema, J. A.; Kamps, W. A.; de Vries, E. G. E.; Postma, A.
Purpose: To describe data on changes in body composition in childhood cancer survivors. Underlying mechanisms in development of obesity are addressed, in order to discuss intervention strategies. Methods: A systematic literature search was undertaken with a number of search terms. Results: Female
Koster, A.; Visser, M.; Simonsick, E.M.; Yu, B.; Allison, D.B.; Newman, A.B.; van Eijk, J.T.; Schwartz, A.V.; Satterfield, S.; Harris, T.B.
Objectives: To examine the association between physical fitness, assessed according to ability and time to complete a 400-m walk, on changes in body composition and muscle strength over a 7-year period. Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting: Memphis, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh,
Bartelds, B; Gratama, JWC; Knoester, H; Takens, J; Smid, GB; Aarnoudse, JG; Heymans, HSA; Kuipers, JRG
No information is available on perinatal changes in myocardial metabolism in vivo. We measured myocardial supply and flux of fatty acids, carbohydrates, and ketone bodies in chronically instrumented fetal, newborn (1-4 days), and juvenile (7 wk) lambs, by measuring aorta-coronary sinus concentration
May 22, 2013 ... evaluate the effect of supplementation of fibrolytic bac- terial isolate on body weight changes, milk production, nutrient intake and nutrient utilization in lactating Murrah buffaloes. This study was conducted to evaluate the digestibility of lignocellulosic feeds by some selected bacterial isolates isolated from ...
Pasman, W.J.; Westerterp-Plantenga, M.S.; Saris, W.H.M.
The effect of body weight changes and endurance training on 24h substrate oxidation. Pasman WJ, Westerterp MS, Saris WH. Maastricht University, Department of Human Biology, The Netherlands. Pasman@voeding.tno.nl OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of exercise training and dietary macronutrient
Koppes, Lando L J; de Boer, Michiel R; Samoocha, David
Five personality characteristics were assessed in 312 adolescent boys and girls, and investigated in relation to the change in body fat percentage over 22 years of follow up. Boys with low levels of Social Inadequacy and girls with high levels of Recalcitrance showed relatively large gains in bod...
Burn injuries are among the most serious causes of radical changes in body image. The subject of body image and self-image is essential in rehabilitation, and the nurse must be aware of the issues related to these concepts and take them seriously into account in drafting out the nursing programme. This paper defines certain key words related to body image and discusses the social context of body image. Burn injuries are considered in relation to the way each of these affects the patient's body image. The aim of nursing is defined and the nurse's role in cases of severe changes in body image due to burn injuries is discussed.
Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.
Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect
Hare-Bruun, Helle; Flint, Anne; L. Heitmann, Berit
born in 1922, 1932, 1942, or 1952. A baseline health examination and a dietary history interview were carried out in 1987 and 1988; a follow-up health examination was performed in 1993 and 1994. Results: Positive associations between GI and changes in bodyweight (¿BW), percentage body fat (%BF......), and waist circumference (¿WC) were observed in women after adjustment for covariates.Significant GI X sex X physical activity interactions for ABSTR