Tracer measurements in the tropical tropopause layer during the AMMA/SCOUT-O3 aircraft campaign

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C. D. Homan

2010-04-01

small signatures indicative of this process were found in CO₂ profiles between 390 and 410 K during the flights of 4 and 8 August, and in CO data at 410 K on 7 August. However, the absence of expected corresponding signatures in other tracer data makes this evidence inconclusive, and overall there is little indication from the observations that overshooting convection has a profound impact on gas-phase tracer TTL composition during AMMA.

We find the amount of photochemically aged air isentropically mixed into the TTL across the subtropical tropopause to be not significant. Using the N₂O observations we estimate the fraction of aged extratropical stratospheric air in the TTL to be 0.0±0.1 up to 370 K during the local flights. Above the TTL this fraction increases to 0.3±0.1 at 390 K.

The subtropical barrier, as indicated by the slope of the correlation between N₂O and O₃ between 415 and 490 K, does not appear as a sharp border between the tropics and extratropics, but rather as a gradual transition region between 10° N and 25° N where isentropic mixing between these two regions may occur.

A climatology based on reanalysis of baroclinic developmental regions in the extratropical northern hemisphere.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; Noguerol, Marta; Añel, Juan Antonio; Gimeno, Luis

2008-12-01

Regions of the occurrence of different phenomena related to the development of baroclinic disturbances are reviewed for the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The occurrence of height lows appears to be related to the orography near the earth's surface and with surface- and upper-air cyclogenesis in the upper troposphere. Over the cyclone tracks, the surface maxima appear to be trapped by land masses, whereas over the Mediterranean Sea they are located on the lee side of mountain ranges. The forcing terms of the geopotential tendency and omega equations mark the genesis (and, by the vorticity advection terms, the path) of the extratropical cyclones on the storm track. They occur mostly over the western coast of the oceans, beginning and having maxima on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. Their associated fronts form from the cold air coming from the continents and converging with the warm air over the Gulf and Kuroshio currents. Evident trends are found only for the Atlantic cyclone track (positive) and the Pacific cyclone track (negative) until the last decade when the tendency reverses. Over the southern Pacific, the number of fronts is lower during 1978-1997, coinciding with a period of strong El Niño Southern Oscillation episodes. This information is important for validating numerical models in order to predict changes associated with climate change and to study the behavior of extratropical cyclones and fronts.

Convectively Driven Tropopause-Level Cooling and Its Influences on Stratospheric Moisture

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Joowan; Randel, William J.; Birner, Thomas

2018-01-01

Characteristics of the tropopause-level cooling associated with tropical deep convection are examined using CloudSat radar and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation measurements. Extreme deep convection is sampled based on the cloud top height (>17 km) from CloudSat, and colocated temperature profiles from COSMIC are composited around the deep convection. Response of moisture to the tropopause-level cooling is also examined in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using microwave limb sounder measurements. The composite temperature shows an anomalous warming in the troposphere and a significant cooling near the tropopause (at 16-19 km) when deep convection occurs over the western Pacific, particularly during periods with active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The composite of the tropopause cooling has a large horizontal scale ( 6,000 km in longitude) with minimum temperature anomaly of -2 K, and it lasts more than 2 weeks with support of mesoscale convective clusters embedded within the envelope of the MJO. The water vapor anomalies show strong correlation with the temperature anomalies (i.e., dry anomaly in the cold anomaly), showing that the convectively driven tropopause cooling actively dehydrate the lower stratosphere in the western Pacific region. The moisture is also affected by anomalous Matsuno-Gill-type circulation associated with the cold anomaly, in which dry air spreads over a wide range in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). These results suggest that convectively driven tropopause cooling and associated transient circulation play an important role in the large-scale dehydration process in the TTL.

Lagrangian transport in poleward breaking Rossby waves in the North Atlantic - Europe tropopause region

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Bartels, J; Peters, D [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1998-12-31

The poleward advection of upper-tropospheric air is investigated for poleward Rossby wave breaking events. During boreal winter months the isentropic deformations of the tropopause are examined using maps of Ertel`s potential vorticity (EPV) and contour advection (CA) calculations. The role of ambient baro-tropic flow is further examined by idealized numerical models. In the vicinity of the tropopause the characteristic Lagrangian transport of air masses for ECMWF-analysis data are compared with high resolution (T106) ECHAM4 experiments. (author) 3 refs.

Lagrangian transport in poleward breaking Rossby waves in the North Atlantic - Europe tropopause region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bartels, J.; Peters, D. [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1997-12-31

The poleward advection of upper-tropospheric air is investigated for poleward Rossby wave breaking events. During boreal winter months the isentropic deformations of the tropopause are examined using maps of Ertel`s potential vorticity (EPV) and contour advection (CA) calculations. The role of ambient baro-tropic flow is further examined by idealized numerical models. In the vicinity of the tropopause the characteristic Lagrangian transport of air masses for ECMWF-analysis data are compared with high resolution (T106) ECHAM4 experiments. (author) 3 refs.

Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5

Science.gov (United States)

Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari

2013-04-01

Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5 Nagio Hirota1,2 and Yukari N. Takayabu2 (1) National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) (2) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP(V2.2), CMAP(V0911), daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE. Surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, and atmospheric circulations are also compared with observations of CRU-UEA, CERES, and ERA-interim/ERA40/JRA reanalysis data. It is shown that many CMIP5 models underestimate and overestimate summer precipitation over West and East Eurasia, respectively. These precipitation biases correspond to moisture transport associated with a cyclonic circulation bias over the whole continent of Eurasia. Meanwhile, many models underestimate cloud over the Eurasian continent, and associated shortwave cloud radiative forcing result in a significant warm bias. Evaporation feedback amplify the warm bias over West Eurasia. These processes consistently explain the precipitation biases over the Erasian continent in summer. We also examined reproducibility of winter precipitation, but robust results are not obtained yet due to the large uncertainty in observation associated with the adjustment of snow measurement in windy condition. Better observational data sets are necessary for further model validation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the PMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Titan's Tropopause Temperatures from CIRS: Implications for Stratospheric Methane Cloud Formation

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, C. M.; Samuelson, R. E.; Achterberg, R. K.; Barnes, J. W.; Flasar, F. M.

2012-01-01

Analysis of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) far-IR spectra enable the construction of Titan's temperature profile in the altitude region containing the tropopause. Whereas the methane V4 band at 1306/cm (7.7 microns) is the primary opacity source for deducing thermal structure between 100 km and 500 km, N2-N2 collision-induced absorption between 70 and 140/cm (143 microns and 71 microns) is utilized to determine temperatures at Titan's tropopause. Additional opacity due to aerosol and nitrile ices must also be taken into account in this part of the far-IR spectral region. The spectral characteristics of these particulate opacities have been deduced from CIRS limb data at 58degS, 15degS, 15degN, and 85degN. Empirically, the spectral shapes of these opacities appear to be independent of both latitude and altitude below 300 km (Anderson and Samuelson, 2011, Icarus 212, 762-778), justifying the extension of these spectral properties to all latitudes. We find that Titan's tropopause temperature is cooler than the HAS! value of 70.5K by approx. 6K. This leads to the possibility that subsidence at high northern latitudes can cause methane condensation in the winter polar stratosphere. A search for methane clouds in this region is in progress.

Observations of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves forced by Extratropical Wave Activity

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Kiladis, G. N.; Biello, J. A.; Straub, K. H.

2012-12-01

It is well established by observations that deep tropical convection can in certain situations be forced by extratropical Rossby wave activity. Such interactions are a well-known feature of regions of upper level westerly flow, and in particular where westerlies and equatorward wave guiding by the basic state occur at low enough latitudes to interact with tropical and subtropical moisture sources. In these regions convection is commonly initiated ahead of upper level troughs, characteristic of forcing by quasi-geostrophic dynamics. However, recent observational evidence indicates that extratropical wave activity is also associated with equatorial convection even in regions where there is a "critical line" to Rossby wave propagation at upper levels, that is, where the zonal phase speed of the wave is equal to the zonal flow speed. A common manifestation of this type of interaction involves the initiation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves, as well as mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves. These waves are responsible for a large portion of the convective variability within the ITCZ over the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic sectors, as well as within the Amazon Basin of South America. For example, Kelvin waves originating within the western Pacific ITCZ are often triggered by Rossby wave activity propagating into the Australasian region from the South Indian Ocean extratropics. At other times, Kelvin waves are seen to originate along the eastern slope of the Andes. In the latter case the initial forcing is sometimes linked to a low-level "pressure surge," initiated by wave activity propagating equatorward from the South Pacific storm track. In yet other cases, such as over Africa, the forcing appears to be related to wave activity in the extratropics which is not necessarily propagating into low latitudes, but appears to "project" onto the Kelvin structure, in line with past theoretical and modeling studies. Observational evidence for extratropical forcing of Kelvin and MRG

Scaling behaviour of the global tropopause

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C. Varotsos

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to the time series of the global tropopause height derived from the 1980–2004 daily radiosonde data, in order to detect long-range correlations in its time evolution.

Global tropopause height fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time intervals in a power-law fashion. The exponent of this dependence is larger in the tropics than in the middle and high latitudes in both hemispheres. Greater persistence is observed in the tropopause of the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. A plausible physical explanation of the fact that long-range correlations in tropopause variability decreases with increasing latitude is that the column ozone fluctuations (that are closely related with the tropopause ones exhibit long range correlations, which are larger in tropics than in the middle and high latitudes at long time scales.

This finding for the tropopause height variability should reduce the existing uncertainties in assessing the climatic characteristics. More specifically the reliably modelled values of a climatic variable (i.e. past and future simulations must exhibit the same scaling behaviour with that possibly existing in the real observations of the variable under consideration. An effort has been made to this end by applying the detrended fluctuation analysis to the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature anomalies during the period January 1850–August 2008. The result obtained supports the findings presented above, notably: the correlations between the fluctuations in the global mean monthly land and sea surface temperature display scaling behaviour which must characterizes any projection.

Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) 2014 Western Pacific Campaign

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Jensen, E.; Pfister, L.

2014-01-01

The NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) is a series of airborne campaigns focused on understanding physical processes in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. ATTREX is using the high-altitude, long-duration NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Air System to make in situ and remote-sensing measurements spanning the Pacific. A particular ATTREX emphasis is to better understand the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold tropical tropopause region. The ATTREX payload contains 12 in situ and remote sensing instruments that measure water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide), reactive chemical compounds (ozone, bromine, nitrous oxide), meteorological parameters, and radiative fluxes. During January-March, 2014, the Global Hawk was deployed to Guam for ATTREX flights. Six science flights were conducted from Guam (in addition to the transits across the Pacific), resulting in over 100 hours of Western Pacific TTL sampling and about 180 vertical profiles through the TTL. I will provide an overview of the dataset, with examples of the measurements including meteorological parameters, clouds and water vapor, and chemical tracers.

Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

2017-12-01

The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

An Atmospheric Tape Recorder: The Imprint of Tropical Tropopause Temperatures on Stratospheric Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Mote, Philip W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; McIntyre, Michael E.; Carr, Ewan S.; Gille, John C.; Holton, James R.; Kinnersley, Jonathan S.; Pumphrey, Hugh C.; Russell, James M., III; Waters, Joe W.

1996-01-01

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective 'entry mixing ratio' q(sub E) of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is 'marked,' on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define q(sub E) as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric 'overworld' at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in q(sub E) and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a q(sub E) crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between q(sub E) and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion K(sub z) and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then K(sub z) would be in the range 0.03-0.09 m(exp 2)/s; this is an upper bound on K(sub z).

Evidence of horizontal and vertical transport of water in the Southern Hemisphere tropical tropopause layer (TTL from high-resolution balloon observations

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S. M. Khaykin

2016-09-01

Full Text Available High-resolution in situ balloon measurements of water vapour, aerosol, methane and temperature in the upper tropical tropopause layer (TTL and lower stratosphere are used to evaluate the processes affecting the stratospheric water budget: horizontal transport (in-mixing and hydration by cross-tropopause overshooting updrafts. The obtained in situ evidence of these phenomena are analysed using satellite observations by Aura MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder and CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation together with trajectory and transport modelling performed using CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere and HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model. Balloon soundings were conducted during March 2012 in Bauru, Brazil (22.3° S in the frame of the TRO-Pico campaign for studying the impact of convective overshooting on the stratospheric water budget. The balloon payloads included two stratospheric hygrometers: FLASH-B (Fluorescence Lyman-Alpha Stratospheric Hygrometer for Balloon and Pico-SDLA instrument as well as COBALD (Compact Optical Backscatter Aerosol Detector sondes, complemented by Vaisala RS92 radiosondes. Water vapour vertical profiles obtained independently by the two stratospheric hygrometers are in excellent agreement, ensuring credibility of the vertical structures observed. A signature of in-mixing is inferred from a series of vertical profiles, showing coincident enhancements in water vapour (of up to 0.5 ppmv and aerosol at the 425 K (18.5 km level. Trajectory analysis unambiguously links these features to intrusions from the Southern Hemisphere extratropical stratosphere, containing more water and aerosol, as demonstrated by MLS and CALIPSO global observations. The in-mixing is successfully reproduced by CLaMS simulations, showing a relatively moist filament extending to 20° S. A signature of local cross-tropopause transport of water is observed in

Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

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Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

2005-06-01

Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

Multi-year composite view of ozone enhancements and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in dry intrusions of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Jaegle, L.; Wood, R.; Wargan, K.

2017-12-01

We examine the role of extratropical cyclones in stratosphere-to-troposphere (STT) exchange by using cyclone-centric composites of O3 retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) onboard the Aura satellite and contrasting them to composites obtained with Modern-Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2) as well as with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. MERRA sea level pressure fields are used to identify 15,978 extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere (NH) between 2005 and 2012. The lowermost stratosphere (261 hPa) and middle troposphere (424 hPa) composites of these cyclones feature a distinct 1,000 km wide O3 enhancement in the dry intrusion to the southwest of the cyclone center, coinciding with a lowered tropopause, enhanced potential vorticity, and decreased water vapor. In the lowermost stratosphere, MLS composites show that the dry intrusion O3 enhancements reach a 210 ppbv maximum in April. In the middle troposphere, TES composites display dry intrusion maximum O3 enhancements of 27 ppbv in May. The magnitude and seasonality of these enhancements are captured by MERRA and MERRA-2, but GEOS-Chem is a factor of two too low. The MERRA-2 composites show that the O3-rich dry intrusion forms a coherent and vertically aligned structure between 300 and 800 hPa, wrapping cyclonically with the warm conveyor belt. In winter and spring dry intrusions, O3 is enhanced by 100 pbbv or 100-130% relative to background conditions at 300 hPa, with a significant contribution reaching pressure altitudes below 500 hPa (6-20 ppbv or 15-30% enhancement). We calculate that extratropical cyclones result in a STT flux of 119 Tg O3 yr-1, accounting for 42% of the annual NH O3 extratropical STT flux. The STT flux in cyclones is highest in spring and displays a strong dependence on westerly 300 hPa wind speeds.

Data denial experiments for extratropical transition

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Doris Anwender

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Data denial experiments using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF model are designed to investigate the value of targeted observations for historical extratropical transition (ET cases over the Atlantic. The impact of removing data from specified locations linked to the ET development is therefore examined. It is shown that the impact of denying data in the near tropical cyclone (TC environment is, on average, as important as denying data in mid-latitude sensitive regions determined using extratropical singular vectors (SV. The impact of data denial over TC regions propagates downstream from the Atlantic towards Europe, with a maximum degradation at day 4. This degradation is mainly attributed to the data denial at the TC stage, i.e. before ET is completed. When data are denied on mid-latitude sensitive regions, the largest degradation is found around day 2 and also after the day 4 forecast. In general, the loss of information content is larger when data are denied in mid-latitude sensitive areas because these identify dynamically active regions. In both denial experiments, aircraft and satellite radiance data are the most influential observations. For the selected case of Hurricane Irene, the largest degradations are found for forecasts initialised while Irene reached its peak intensity. If observations are denied in the near storm environment, the TC mostly disappears from the analysis and the subsequent forecast. This allows the impact of Irene on the formation of the downstream cut-off low to be investigated.

Professor Zalman Makhover. A relevant contributor to early tropopause studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antuna, Juan C. [Camagueey Lidar Station, Camagueey (Cuba); Anel, Juan A. [CESAM, Univ. de Aveiro, Campus Univ. de Santiago, Aveiro (Portugal); EPhysLab, Facultade de Ciencias de Ourense, Univ. de Vigo, Ourense (Spain); Sterin, Alexander [Russian Research Inst. for Hydrometeorological Information - World Data Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Gimeno, Luis [EPhysLab, Facultade de Ciencias de Ourense, Univ. de Vigo, Ourense (Spain)

2009-12-15

We present an assessment of the work of Zalman Meerovich Makhover (1922-99), a leading expert on tropopause studies in the former USSR. Although a much-respected scientist among his peers, his work remains unknown, possibly as a result of much of never having been translated into English. His most important contributions were on the subject of the spatial and temporal structure of the altitude and temperature of the tropopause, as well as its variability over a range of different time scales from annual to daily. We describe the determination of the seasonal features of the tropopause and note his achievements in determining the roles of synoptic conditions and the annual cycle on tropopause characteristics. Recent tropopause research has confirmed much of his earlier work and provided important results for, among other things, stratospheretroposphere exchange processes, climate change indicator studies, and the climatology of aircraft exhaust traces. The legacy of Makhover includes his own research on tropopause phenomena, as well as a synthesis of the numerous studies conducted by former Soviet and other researchers. Here we provide a brief biography, citation data, as well as graphical material taken from his monographs and papers. (orig.)

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xujia; Zheng, Zhihai; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16-18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10-11 days in January, April, and July and only 7-8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks.

The heating rate in the tropical tropopause region; Die Erwaermungsrate in der tropischen Tropopausenregion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamann, Ulrich

2010-07-01

The major part of the movement of air masses from the troposphere to the stratosphere takes place in the tropics. The conveyed air mass is transported with the Brewer-Dobson circulation poleward and therefore influences the global stratospheric composition. An important cause variable for the transport of air through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the radiative heating, which is investigated in this work. The influence of trace gases, temperature, and cloudiness on the heating rate is quantified, especially the effect of the overlap of several cloud layers is discussed. The heating rate in the tropics is simulated for one year. Regional differences of the heating rate profile appear between convective and stably stratified regions. By means of trace gas concentrations, temperature, and heating rates it is determined that an enhanced transport of air through the TTL took place between January and April 2007. The comparison with previous works shows that accurate input data sets of trace gases, temperature, and cloudiness and exact methods for the simulation of the radiative transfer are indispensable for modeling of the heating rate with the required accuracy. (orig.)

Small-scale variability in tropical tropopause layer humidity

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, E. J.; Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Karcher, B.; Podglajen, A.; Diskin, G. S.; DiGangi, J. P.; Thornberry, T. D.; Rollins, A. W.; Bui, T. V.; Woods, S.; Lawson, P.

2016-12-01

Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about -5/3 to -2.

Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution in Extratropical Cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere Oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2016-01-01

Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and an extratropical cyclone database,the climatological distribution of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in extratropical cyclones is explored based solely on observations. Cyclone-centered composites of aerosol optical depth are constructed for the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude ocean regions, and their seasonal variations are examined. These composites are found to be qualitatively stable when the impact of clouds and surface insolation or brightness is tested. The larger AODs occur in spring and summer and are preferentially found in the warm frontal and in the post-cold frontal regions in all seasons. The fine mode aerosols dominate the cold sector AODs, but the coarse mode aerosols display large AODs in the warm sector. These differences between the aerosol modes are related to the varying source regions of the aerosols and could potentially have different impacts on cloud and precipitation within the cyclones.

Impact of different vertical transport representations on simulating processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ploeger, Felix

2011-07-06

The chemical and dynamical processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) control the amount of radiatively active species like water vapour and ozone in the stratosphere, and hence turn out to be crucial for atmospheric trends and climate change. Chemistry transport models and chemistry climate models are suitable tools to understand these processes. But model results are subject to uncertainties arising from the parametrization of model physics. In this thesis the sensitivity of model predictions to the choice of the vertical transport representation will be analysed. Therefore, backtrajectories are calculated in the TTL, based on different diabatic and kinematic transport representations using ERA-Interim and operational ECMWF data. For diabatic transport on potential temperature levels, the vertical velocity is deduced from the ERA-Interim diabatic heat budget. For kinematic transport on pressure levels, the vertical wind is used as vertical velocity. It is found that all terms in the diabatic heat budget are necessary to cause transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere. In particular, clear-sky heating rates alone miss very important processes. Many characteristics of transport in the TTL turn out to depend very sensitively on the choice of the vertical transport representation. Timescales for tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere transport vary between one and three months, with respect to the chosen representation. Moreover, for diabatic transport ascent is found throughout the upper TTL, whereas for kinematic transport regions of mean subsidence occur, particularly above the maritime continent. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated trace gas distributions in the TTL to the transport representation, a conceptual approach is presented to predict water vapour and ozone concentrations from backtrajectories, based on instantaneous freeze-drying and photochemical ozone production. It turns out that ozone predictions and vertical dispersion of the

Topic 2.0: Tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition

OpenAIRE

Harr, Patrick A.

2010-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited In this section, progress since ITWC-VI on research, observations and forecasting of tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition is summarized. While tropical cyclone formation and extratropical transition are stages at opposite ends of the tropical cyclone lifecycle, significant lack of understanding remains in relation to processes associated with each stage. Formation and extratropical transition involve interactions a...

Effects on stratospheric moistening by rates of change of aerosol optical depth and ozone due to solar activity in extra-tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, U.; Maitra, A.

2014-11-01

The solar-induced changes in ozone and aerosol optical depth have relative effects on stratospheric moistening at upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Wavelet-based multi-scale principal component analysis technique has been applied to de-noise component of quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation from ozone and aerosol optical depth variations. Rate of change of aerosol optical depth sharply increases indicating a positive gradient whereas rate of change of ozone sharply decreases indicating a negative gradient with solar activity during the years 2004-2010. It is also observed that with increase of rate of change of aerosol optical depth, there is a sharp increase of stratospheric moistening caused by enhanced deep convection. On the contrary, with the increase of stratospheric moistening, there is a sharp decrease of rate of change of ozone resulting in a cross-over between the two parameters. An increase in aerosol optical depth may cause a significant increase in the gradient of vertical temperature profile, as well as formation of cloud condensation nuclei, clouds and hence rainfall. This may lead to formation of strong convective system in the atmosphere that is essential for vertical transfer of water vapour in the tropics percolating tropical tropopause layer and depleting stratospheric ozone in the extra-tropics.

Time lag between the tropopause height and the levels of 7Be concentration in near surface air

Science.gov (United States)

Ioannidou, A.; Vasileiadis, A.; Melas, D.

2012-04-01

The concentration of 7Be at near surface air has been determined over 2009, a year of a deep solar minimum, in the region of Thessaloniki, Greece at 40°62' N, 22°95'E. In geomagnetic latitudes over 40° N, the elevation of the tropopause during the warm summer months and the vertical exchange of air masses within the troposphere cause greater mixture of the air masses resulting in higher concentration levels for 7Be in surface air. The positive correlation between the monthly activity concentration of 7Be and the tropopause height (0.94, p rate of vertical transport within the troposphere, especially during warmer summer months, has as a result the descent to surface of air masses enriched in 7Be. However, the 7Be concentration levels in near surface air are not expected to respond immediately to the change of elevation of the tropopause. It was found that there's a time lag of ~ 3 days between the change in the daily surface concentrations of 7Be the change in the elevation of the tropopause.

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Folmer, M. J.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) interpolated to a 12-km grid, and 13-km Rapid Refresh analyses.

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Elmer, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Atmospheric River Importance to Extratropical Climate and Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Ye, H.; Ralph, F. M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow, long, water vapor rich corridors of the atmosphere that are responsible for over 90% of the poleward moisture transport across mid-latitudes and into high latitudes. This suggests a crucial role for ARs in helping establish the extra-tropical atmospheric water budget and hydroclimate variability. However, the contribution of ARs to the extra-tropical atmospheric water budget has yet to be quantified, including impacts on water vapor transport and storage, and precipitation. This study characterizes the roles of AR related atmospheric transport on combined and individual atmospheric water budget variables over extratropical regions of both hemispheres based on MERRA2 reanalysis products during 1997-2014. Results show that poleward water vapor transport related to ARs is strongly related to changes in water vapor storage and especially precipitation in higher latitudes in both hemispheres, with the relationship dependent on averaging period. For example, for the annual cycle climatology, both AR transport and local evaporation support the variation in precipitation. However, on monthly time scales, the water budget at higher latitudes tends to be dominated by the balance between AR transport and precipitation. On pentad and daily time scales, AR transport is related to both precipitation and water vapor storage changes. These results indicate the important role of the episodic, extreme moisture transports associated with ARs in helping establish the high latitude water and energy cycles, and associated hydroclimate.

Tropopause referenced ozone climatology and inter-annual variability (1994–2003 from the MOZAIC programme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thouret

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The MOZAIC programme collects ozone and water vapour data using automatic equipment installed on board five long-range Airbus A340 aircraft flying regularly all over the world since August 1994. Those measurements made between September 1994 and August 1996 allowed the first accurate ozone climatology at 9–12 km altitude to be generated. The seasonal variability of the tropopause height has always provided a problem when constructing climatologies in this region. To remove any signal from the seasonal and synoptic scale variability in tropopause height we have chosen in this further study of these and subsequent data to reference our climatology to the altitude of the tropopause. We define the tropopause as a mixing zone 30 hPa thick across the 2 pvu potential vorticity surface. A new ozone climatology is now available for levels characteristic of the upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause over the period 1994–2003. Moreover, this new presentation has allowed an estimation of the monthly mean climatological ozone concentration at the tropopause showing a sine seasonal variation with a maximum in May (120 ppbv and a minimum in November (65 ppbv. Besides, we present a first assessment of the inter-annual variability of ozone in this particular critical region. The overall increase in the UTLS is about 1%/yr for the 9 years sampled. However, enhanced concentrations about 10–15 % higher than the other years were recorded in 1998 and 1999 in both the UT and the LS. This so-called '1998–1999 anomaly' may be attributed to a combination of different processes involving large scale modes of atmospheric variability, circulation features and local or global pollution, but the most dominant one seems to involve the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO as we find a strong positive correlation (above 0.60 between ozone recorded in the upper troposphere and the NAO

Relative Humidity in the Tropopause Saturation Layer

Science.gov (United States)

Selkirk, H. B.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Pfister, L.; Thornberry, T. D.; Bui, T. V.

2017-12-01

The tropical tropopause separates two very different atmospheric regimes: the stable lower stratosphere where the air is both extremely dry and nearly always so, and a transition layer in the uppermost tropical troposphere, where humidity on average increases rapidly downward but can undergo substantial temporal fluctuations. The processes that control the humidity in this layer below the tropopause include convective detrainment (which can result in either a net hydration or dehydration), slow ascent, wave motions and advection. Together these determine the humidity of the air that eventually passes through the tropopause and into the stratosphere, and we refer to this layer as the tropopause saturation layer or TSL. We know from in situ water vapor observations such as Ticosonde's 12-year balloonsonde record at Costa Rica that layers of supersaturation are frequently observed in the TSL. While their frequency is greatest during the local rainy season from June through October, supersaturation is also observed in the boreal winter dry season when deep convection is well south of Costa Rica. In other words, local convection is not a necessary condition for the presence of supersaturation. Furthermore, there are indications from airborne measurements during the recent POSIDON campaign at Guam that if anything deep convection tends to `reset' the TSL locally to a state of just-saturation. Conversely, it may be that layers of supersaturation are the result of slow ascent. To explore these ideas we take Ticosonde water vapor observations from the TSL, stratify them on the basis of relative humidity and report on the differences in the the history of upstream convective influence between supersaturated parcels and those that are not.

Potential Vorticity Streamers as Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

study a developing system with an extratropical precursor (TCS-037) developing into Tropical Storm 16W (TS 16W)” (Schönenberger 2010). This subsection...tropopause maps), the TC genesis event is termed a tropical transition (TT) case. If no such extratropical feature 38 is present, the storm in... extratropical origin is deemed to play an important role in the dynamical evolution leading to tropical cyclogenesis. In contrast, non-TT storms

Time lag between the tropopause height and the levels of 7Be concentration in near surface air

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melas D.

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The concentration of 7Be at near surface air has been determined over 2009, a year of a deep solar minimum, in the region of Thessaloniki, Greece at 40°62′ N, 22°95'E. In geomagnetic latitudes over 40° N, the elevation of the tropopause during the warm summer months and the vertical exchange of air masses within the troposphere cause greater mixture of the air masses resulting in higher concentration levels for 7Be in surface air. The positive correlation between the monthly activity concentration of 7Be and the tropopause height (0.94, p < 0.0001, and also between 7Be concentration and the temperature T (°C (R = 0.97, p < 0.001, confirm that the increased rate of vertical transport within the troposphere, especially during warmer summer months, has as a result the descent to surface of air masses enriched in 7Be. However, the 7Be concentration levels in near surface air are not expected to respond immediately to the change of elevation of the tropopause. It was found that there's a time lag of ~ 3 days between the change in the daily surface concentrations of 7Be the change in the elevation of the tropopause.

Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

Science.gov (United States)

Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

2003-04-01

Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

The roles of static stability and tropical-extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

Science.gov (United States)

Mbengue, Cheikh Oumar; Woollings, Tim; Dacre, Helen F.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector's interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill.

Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. S. Hosking

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a climate resolution (N216, ~0.83°×~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

Science.gov (United States)

Manney, Gloria L.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Millán, Luis F.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Lambert, Alyn; Pawson, Steven; Knosp, Brian W.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Daffer, William H.

2017-09-01

The representation of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution - for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and

Ten Year Analysis of Tropopause-Overshooting Convection Using GridRad Data

Science.gov (United States)

Cooney, John W.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Homeyer, Cameron R.; Fenske, Tyler M.

2018-01-01

Convection that penetrates the tropopause (overshooting convection) rapidly transports air from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere, potentially mixing air between the two layers. This exchange of air can have a substantial impact on the composition, radiation, and chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In order to improve our understanding of the role convection plays in the transport of trace gases across the tropopause, this study presents a 10 year analysis of overshooting convection for the eastern two thirds of the contiguous United States for March through August of 2004 to 2013 based on radar observations. Echo top altitudes are estimated at hourly intervals using high-resolution, three-dimensional, gridded, radar reflectivity fields created by merging observations from available radars in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network. Overshooting convection is identified by comparing echo top altitudes with tropopause altitudes derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. It is found that overshooting convection is most common in the central United States, with a weak secondary maximum along the southeast coast. The maximum number of overshooting events occur consistently between 2200 and 0200 UTC. Most overshooting events occur in May, June, and July when convection is deepest and the tropopause altitude is relatively low. Approximately 45% of the analyzed overshooting events (those with echo tops at least 1 km above the tropopause) have echo tops extending above the 380 K level into the stratospheric overworld.

Estudio de las observaciones de tropopausa sobre el cono sur de Sudamérica mediante GPS a bordo de los satélites SAC-C y CHAMP Tropopause observation study over southern South America using GPS data from SAC-C and CHAMP satellites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gabriela Lakkis

2006-12-01

tropopause temperature, pressure and altitude. The comparison of the two data sets shows that GPS sounding are in good agreement with expected results, especially at [0,10] km of altitude. Extratropical Tropopause (80°S -60° height values derived from GPS shows levels around 9 - 15.3 km , while temperatures data provides a range of (204 - 222 K. Water vapour pressure estimation provide a trend with a significant change of behaviour between upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, where the parameter decrease while altitude increase, especially near the tropopause region.

Extratropical Forcing Triggered the 2015 Madden-Julian Oscillation-El Niño Event.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Chi-Cherng; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Lee, Ming-Ying; Chow, Chun-Hoe; Jiang, Li-Chiang

2017-04-24

In this paper, we report the triggering effect of extratropical perturbation on the onset of an atypical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and onset of the 2015-16 El Niño in March 2015. The MJO exhibited several unique characteristics: the effect of extratropical forcing, atypical genesis location and timing in the equatorial western Pacific, and the extremity of amplitudes in many aspects. The southward-penetrating northerly associated with the extratropical disturbances in the extratropical western North Pacific contributed to triggering the deep convection and westerly wind burst (WWB) and onset of the MJO over the anomalously warm tropical western Pacific in early March. The persisting strong WWB forced downwelling Kelvin wave-like oceanic perturbation that propagated eastward and led to the onset of the 2015-16 El Niño. The proposed novel extratropical forcing mechanism explaining the unique extratropics-MJO-El Niño association, based on both data diagnostics and numerical experiments, warrants further attention for a more detailed understanding of the onset of the MJO and its potential effect on El Niño.

Maintenance of extratropical low-frequency variabilities in the atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ting, M.

1994-01-01

The extratropical low-frequency variability is one of the most important components in extratropical dynamics. While there are some understanding of the high-frequency, synoptic scale storm track eddy development due to baroclinic instability theory, its low-frequency counterpart is poorly understood and the theory for that is slowly evolving. The main difficulty seems to be lying on the fact that the problem is three dimensional in nature

Climatological Factors Affecting Electromagnetic Surface Ducting in the Aegean Sea Region

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

low precipitation, and northeasterly winds, all due to changes in large scale circulations and a northward shift in extratropical storm tracks. The...differences over the Aegean region, that are governed by large-scale climate factors. a. Winter During winter, the Aegean area is subject to extratropical ... extratropical cyclones from entering the Aegean region, while opposite shifts can 18 allow extratropical cyclones to more frequently enter the Aegean

76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

... Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data...-extratropical-storms/home . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Brooke Stewart, National Climatic Data Center, 151.../noaa.gov/extreme-winds-waves-extratropical-storms/home . Topics To Be Addressed This forum will address...

Diagnostics of the Tropical Tropopause Layer from in-situ observations and CCM data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. Volk

2009-12-01

Full Text Available A suite of diagnostics is applied to in-situ aircraft measurements and one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM data to characterize the vertical structure of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL. The diagnostics are based on vertical tracer profiles and relative vertical tracer gradients, using tropopause-referenced coordinates, and tracer-tracer relationships in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS.

Observations were obtained during four tropical campaigns performed from 1999 to 2006 with the research aircraft Geophysica and have been compared to the output of the ECHAM5/MESSy CCM. The model vertical resolution in the TTL (~500 m allows for appropriate comparison with high-resolution aircraft observations and the diagnostics used highlight common TTL features between the model and the observational data.

The analysis of the vertical profiles of water vapour, ozone, and nitrous oxide, in both the observations and the model, shows that concentration mixing ratios exhibit a strong gradient change across the tropical tropopause, due to the role of this latter as a transport barrier and that transition between the tropospheric and stratospheric regimes occurs within a finite layer. The use of relative vertical ozone and carbon monoxide gradients, in addition to the vertical profiles, helps to highlight the region where this transition occurs and allows to give an estimate of its thickness. The analysis of the CO-O₃ and H₂O-O₃ scatter plots and of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF of the H₂O-O₃ pair completes this picture as it allows to better distinguish tropospheric and stratospheric regimes that can be identified by their different chemical composition.

The joint analysis and comparison of observed and modelled data allows to state that the model can represent the background TTL structure and its seasonal variability rather accurately. The model

Climatological properties of summertime extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere

OpenAIRE

Dos Santos Mesquita, Michel; Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Atkinson, David E.

2008-01-01

This paper presents climatological properties of Northern Hemisphere summer extratropical storm tracks using data extracted from an existing, relative-vorticity-based storm database. This database was constructed using the NCEPNCAR ‘Reanalysis I’ data set from 1948 to 2002. Results contrasting summer and winter patterns for several storm parameters indicated general similarity at the largest scales, including the prominent track corridors of the middle latitude ocean regions and the mid-conti...

The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shepherd, T.G. [ed.

1994-02-01

The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop`s University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database.

The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepherd, T.G.

1994-02-01

The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database

Extratropical Cyclone in the Southern Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

These images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) portray an occluded extratropical cyclone situated in the Southern Ocean, about 650 kilometers south of the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. The left-hand image, a true-color view from MISR's nadir (vertical-viewing) camera, shows clouds just south of the Yorke Peninsula and the Murray-Darling river basin in Australia. Retrieved cloud-tracked wind velocities are indicated by the superimposed arrows. The image on the right displays cloud-top heights. Areas where cloud heights could not be retrieved are shown in black. Both the wind vectors and the cloud heights were derived using data from multiple MISR cameras within automated computer processing algorithms. The stereoscopic algorithms used to generate these results are still being refined, and future versions of these products may show modest changes. Extratropical cyclones are the dominant weather system at midlatitudes, and the term is used generically for regional low-pressure systems in the mid- to high-latitudes. In the southern hemisphere, cyclonic rotation is clockwise. These storms obtain their energy from temperature differences between air masses on either side of warm and cold fronts, and their characteristic pattern is of warm and cold fronts radiating out from a migrating low pressure center which forms, deepens, and dissipates as the fronts fold and collapse on each other. The center of this cyclone has started to decay, with the band of cloud to the south most likely representing the main front that was originally connected with the cyclonic circulation. These views were acquired on October 11, 2001, and the large view represents an area of about 380 kilometers x 1900 kilometers. Image courtesy NASA/GSFC/LaRC/JPL, MISR Team.

Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics through a Southerly Conveyor

OpenAIRE

Wang, Zhuo; Chang, C.-P.; Wang, Bin; Jin, Fei-fei

2005-01-01

Rossby wave propagation theory predicts that Rossby waves in a tropical easterly flow cannot escape from the Tropics to the extratropics. Here the authors show that a southerly flow component in the basic state (a southerly conveyor) may transfer a Rossby wave source northward; thus, a forcing embedded in the deep tropical easterlies may excite a Rossby wave response in the extratropical westerlies. It is shown that the southerly conveyor determines the location of the effective R...

The effect of a jet stream on the generation of mountain wave-induced mean flows and turbulence near the tropopause

Science.gov (United States)

Dörnbrack, Andreas; Sharman, Robert

2015-04-01

Observational evidence indicates a higher incidence of turbulence near the tropopause, especially over mountainous terrain. Previous work by McHugh and Sharman (2013) indicate this may be due to nonlinear amplification of topographically-induced gravity waves as they impinge on the tropopause. However, that study did not consider nonlinear topography amplification effects, nor did it consider the more realistic case of a jet stream in the vicinity of the tropopause. This study extends the McHugh and Sharman study by considering these effects using fully nonlinear simulations with the jet modeled as a sech**2 profile. Sensitivity studies are performed to study such effects as the location of the nose of the jet relative to the tropopause height, the jet width, the height of the tropopause, and the size and shape of the obstacle. Momentum and energy flux profiles are used to deduce those configurations most conducive to gravity wave amplification, breakdown and turbulence near the tropopause. McHugh J., Sharman R., 2013: Generation of mountain wave-induced mean flows and turbulence near the tropopause. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139: 1632-1642. DOI:10.1002/qj.2035

An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Qiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Science, Beijing (China); Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Beijing (China); Zhong, Yafang [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States); Wang, Dongxiao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, Guangzhou (China); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou (China)

2005-12-01

Extratropical impacts on the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in a coupled climate model. Idealized experiments show that the remote impact of the extratropics on the equatorial thermocline through oceanic tunnel can substantially modulate the ENSO in both magnitude and frequency. First of all, an extratropical warming can be conveyed to the equator by the mean subduction current, resulting in a warming of the equatorial thermocline. Second, the extratropical warming can weaken the Hadley cells, which in turn slow down the mean shallow meridional overturning circulations in the upper Pacific, reducing the equatorward cold water supply and the equatorial upwelling. These oceanic dynamic processes would weaken the stratification of the equatorial thermocline and retard a buildup (purge) of excess heat content along the equator, and finally result in a weaker and longer ENSO cycle. This study highlights a nonlocal mechanism in which ENSO behavior is related to the extratropical climate conditions. (orig.)

Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Hongyu [National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA (United States); Considine, David B. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Horowitz, Larry W. [NOAA Geophysical Fluid and Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); and others

2016-07-01

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 ({sup 7}Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric {sup 7}Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II{sup '} GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere (UT/LS) {sup 7}Be climatology constructed from ∝ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the {sup 7}Be simulations with observationally derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at mid-latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II{sup '} meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate {sup 7}Be deposition fluxes at mid-latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II{sup '}), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of {sup 7}Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on {sup 7}Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We conclude that the observational constraints for {sup 7}Be and observed {sup 7}Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.

Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Varino, Filipa; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Granier, Jean-Baptiste

2018-03-01

The multi-decadal variations of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones during the last century are studied using a vorticity-based tracking algorithm applied to the long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from ECMWF. The variability of moderate-to-deep extra-tropical winter cyclones in ERA-20C show three distinct periods. Two at the beginning and at the end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) present weak or no significant trends in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and only some regional trends. The period in between (1935-1980) is marked by a significant increase in Northern Hemisphere moderate-to-deep cyclones frequency. During the latter period, polar regions underwent a significant cooling over the whole troposphere that increased and shifted poleward the mid-latitude meridional temperature gradient and the baroclinicity. This is linked to positive-to-negative shifts of the PDO between 1935 and 1957 and of the AMO between 1957 and 1980 which mainly reinforced the storm-track eddy generation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions respectively, as seen from baroclinic conversion from mean to eddy potential energy. As a result, both the North Pacific and North Atlantic extra-tropical storms increase in frequency during the two subperiods (1935-1957 and 1957-1980), together with other storm-track quantities such as the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy. In contrast, the first and third periods are characterized by a warming of the polar temperatures. However, as the stronger warming is confined to the lower troposphere, the baroclinicity do not uniformly increase in the whole troposphere. This may explain why the recent rapid increase in polar temperatures has not affected the behaviour of extratropical cyclones very much. Finally, the large magnitude of the positive trend found in moderate-to-deep cyclone frequency during the second period is still questioned as the period is marked by an important increase in the number of assimilated observations. However, the

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

2018-03-01

Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

The Use of Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery to Investigate the Role of Stratospheric Air in a Non-convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.; Molthan, A. L.

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Elmer, Nicholas

2013-01-01

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

OpenAIRE

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

2014-01-01

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months ...

Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion for Intense Extratropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few intense extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) under historic climate conditions. This bias may arise from the interactions of multiple drivers, including surface temperature gradients, latent heating in the lower troposphere, and the upper-level jet stream. Previous attempts to quantify the importance of these drivers include idealized model experiments or statistical approaches. The first method however cannot easily be implemented for a multi-GCM ensemble, and the second approach does not disentangle the interactions among drivers, nor does it prove causality. An alternative method that overcomes these limitations is piecewise potential vorticity inversion (PPVI). PPVI derives the wind and geopotential height fields by inverting potential vorticity (PV) for discrete atmospheric levels. Despite being a powerful diagnostic tool, PPVI has primarily been used to study the dynamics of individual events only. This study presents the first PPVI climatology for the 5% most intense NH ETCs that occurred from 1980 to 2016. Conducting PPVI to 3273 ETC tracks identified in ERA-Interim reanalysis, we quantified the contributions from 3 atmospheric layers to ETC intensity. The respective layers are the surface (1000 hPa), a lower atmospheric level (700-850 hPa) and an upper atmospheric level (100-500 hPa) that are associated with the contributions from surface temperature gradients, latent heating, and the jet stream, respectively. Results show that contributions are dominated by the lower level (40%), followed by the upper level (20%) and the surface (17%), while the remaining 23% are associated with the background flow. Contributions from the surface and the lower level are stronger in the western ocean basins owed to the presence of the warm ocean currents, while contributions from the upper level are stronger in the eastern basins. Vertical cross sections of ETC-centered composites show an

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

OpenAIRE

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate chang...

Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Ploeger

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using a Lagrangian chemistry transport model. We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe, and (ii into the Northern Hemisphere (NH extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5 % in the tropical pipe and 15 % in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite hydrogen cyanide (HCN and carbon monoxide (CO observations, confirming that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the pollutants transported quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

Formation of large (≃100 μm ice crystals near the tropical tropopause

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Alexander

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Recent high-altitude aircraft measurements with in situ imaging instruments indicated the presence of relatively large (≃100 μm length, thin (aspect ratios of ≃6:1 or larger hexagonal plate ice crystals near the tropical tropopause in very low concentrations (<0.01 L−1. These crystals were not produced by deep convection or aggregation. We use simple growth-sedimentation calculations as well as detailed cloud simulations to evaluate the conditions required to grow the large crystals. Uncertainties in crystal aspect ratio leave a range of possibilities, which could be constrained by knowledge of the water vapor concentration in the air where the crystal growth occurred. Unfortunately, water vapor measurements made in the cloud formation region near the tropopause with different instruments ranged from <2 ppmv to ≃3.5 ppmv. The higher water vapor concentrations correspond to very large ice supersaturations (relative humidities with respect to ice of about 200%. If the aspect ratios of the hexagonal plate crystals are as small as the image analysis suggests (6:1, see companion paper (Lawson et al., 2008 then growth of the large crystals before they sediment out of the supersaturated layer would only be possible if the water vapor concentration were on the high end of the range indicated by the different measurements (>3 ppmv. On the other hand, if the crystal aspect ratios are quite a bit larger (≃10:1, then H2O concentrations toward the low end of the measurement range (≃2–2.5 ppmv would suffice to grow the large crystals. Gravity-wave driven temperature and vertical wind perturbations only slightly modify the H2O concentrations needed to grow the crystals. We find that it would not be possible to grow the large crystals with water concentrations less than 2 ppmv, even with assumptions of a very high aspect ratio of 15 and steady upward motion of 2 cm s−1 to loft the crystals in the tropopause region. These calculations would seem

Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

2014-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

The tropopause inversion layer in baroclinic life-cycle experiments: the role of diabatic processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Kunkel

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Recent studies on the formation of a quasi-permanent layer of enhanced static stability above the thermal tropopause revealed the contributions of dynamical and radiative processes. Dry dynamics leads to the evolution of a tropopause inversion layer (TIL, which is, however, too weak compared to observations and thus diabatic contributions are required. In this study we aim to assess the importance of diabatic processes in the understanding of TIL formation at midlatitudes. The non-hydrostatic model COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling is applied in an idealized midlatitude channel configuration to simulate baroclinic life cycles. The effect of individual diabatic processes related to humidity, radiation, and turbulence is studied first to estimate the contribution of each of these processes to the TIL formation in addition to dry dynamics. In a second step these processes are stepwise included in the model to increase the complexity and finally estimate the relative importance of each process. The results suggest that including turbulence leads to a weaker TIL than in a dry reference simulation. In contrast, the TIL evolves stronger when radiation is included but the temporal evolution is still comparable to the reference. Using various cloud schemes in the model shows that latent heat release and consecutive increased vertical motions foster an earlier and stronger appearance of the TIL than in all other life cycles. Furthermore, updrafts moisten the upper troposphere and as such increase the radiative effect from water vapor. Particularly, this process becomes more relevant for maintaining the TIL during later stages of the life cycles. Increased convergence of the vertical wind induced by updrafts and by propagating inertia-gravity waves, which potentially dissipate, further contributes to the enhanced stability of the lower stratosphere. Finally, radiative feedback of ice clouds reaching up to the tropopause is identified to

CYGNSS Surface Wind Observations and Surface Flux Estimates within Low-Latitude Extratropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Crespo, J.; Posselt, D. J.

2017-12-01

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launched in December 2016, aims to improve estimates of surface wind speeds over the tropical oceans. While CYGNSS's core mission is to provide better estimates of surface winds within the core of tropical cyclones, previous research has shown that the constellation, with its orbital inclination of 35°, also has the ability to observe numerous extratropical cyclones that form in the lower latitudes. Along with its high spatial and temporal resolution, CYGNSS can provide new insights into how extratropical cyclones develop and evolve, especially in the presence of thick clouds and precipitation. We will demonstrate this by presenting case studies of multiple extratropical cyclones observed by CYGNSS early on in its mission in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. By using the improved estimates of surface wind speeds from CYGNSS, we can obtain better estimates of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones. Surface heat fluxes, driven by surface winds and strong vertical gradients of water vapor and temperature, play a key role in marine cyclogenesis as they increase instability within the boundary layer and may contribute to extreme marine cyclogenesis. In the past, it has been difficult to estimate surface heat fluxes from space borne instruments, as these fluxes cannot be observed directly from space, and deficiencies in spatial coverage and attenuation from clouds and precipitation lead to inaccurate estimates of surface flux components, such as surface wind speeds. While CYGNSS only contributes estimates of surface wind speeds, we can combine this data with other reanalysis and satellite data to provide improved estimates of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes within and around extratropical cyclones and throughout the entire CYGNSS mission.

Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

Science.gov (United States)

Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

2017-07-20

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

Thermodynamic constraint on the depth of the global tropospheric circulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, David W J; Bony, Sandrine; Li, Ying

2017-08-01

The troposphere is the region of the atmosphere characterized by low static stability, vigorous diabatic mixing, and widespread condensational heating in clouds. Previous research has argued that in the tropics, the upper bound on tropospheric mixing and clouds is constrained by the rapid decrease with height of the saturation water vapor pressure and hence radiative cooling by water vapor in clear-sky regions. Here the authors contend that the same basic physics play a key role in constraining the vertical structure of tropospheric mixing, tropopause temperature, and cloud-top temperature throughout the globe. It is argued that radiative cooling by water vapor plays an important role in governing the depth and amplitude of large-scale dynamics at extratropical latitudes.

Data denial experiments for extratropical transition

OpenAIRE

Anwender, Doris; Cardinali, Carla; Jones, Sarah C.

2012-01-01

Data denial experiments using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model are designed to investigate the value of targeted observations for historical extratropical transition (ET) cases over the Atlantic. The impact of removing data from specified locations linked to the ET development is therefore examined. It is shown that the impact of denying data in the near tropical cyclone (TC) environment is, on average, as important as denying data in mid-latitude sensitive...

Deep convective clouds at the tropopause

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. H. Aumann

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS on the EOS Aqua spacecraft each day show tens of thousands of Cold Clouds (CC in the tropical oceans with 10 μm window channel brightness temperatures colder than 225 K. These clouds represent a mix of cold anvil clouds and Deep Convective Clouds (DCC. This mix can be separated by computing the difference between two channels, a window channel and a channel with strong CO₂ absorption: for some cold clouds this difference is negative, i.e. the spectra for some cold clouds are inverted. We refer to cold clouds with spectra which are more than 2 K inverted as DCCi2. Associated with DCCi2 is a very high rain rate and a local upward displacement of the tropopause, a cold "bulge", which can be seen directly in the brightness temperatures of AIRS and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU temperature sounding channels in the lower stratosphere. The very high rain rate and the local distortion of the tropopause indicate that DCCi2 objects are associated with severe storms. Significant long-term trends in the statistical properties of DCCi2 could be interesting indicators of climate change. While the analysis of the nature and physical conditions related to DCCi2 requires hyperspectral infrared and microwave data, the identification of DCCi2 requires only one good window channel and one strong CO₂ sounding channel. This suggests that improved identification of severe storms with future advanced geostationary satellites could be accomplished with the addition of one or two narrow band channels.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

Temperature properties in the tropical tropopause layer and their correlations with Outgoing Longwave Radiation: FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC observations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kaiti; Wu, Yi-chao; Lin, Jia-Ting; Tan, Pei-Hua

2018-06-01

The properties of temperature at the level of lapse rate minimum (LRM) in the tropical tropopause layer between 20°S and 20°N are investigated using 3-year radio occultation observations based on the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from November of 2006 to October of 2009. The correlations between this LRM temperature and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) are analyzed by 5° × 5° grids in longitude and latitude. Two primary regions, one from 60°E to 180°E and the other from 90°W to 30°E, are found to have higher correlations and can be associated with regions of lower OLR values. The patterns of this spatial distributions of regions with higher correlations begin to change more obviously when the altitude ascends to the level of Cold Point Tropopause (CPT). This correlation at the LRM altitude in annual and seasonal scales also shows spatial distributions associated with OLR intensities. The altitudinal dependence of the correlations between temperature and OLR is further analyzed based on grids of high correlations with significance at LRM altitude, for the two primary regions. The results show that for the different time scales in this analysis (3-year, annual, and seasonal), the correlations all gradually decrease above the LRM levels but maintain a significant level to as high as 2.5-3.5 km. Below the LRM level, the correlation decreases with a slower rate as the altitude descends and still keeps significant at the deep 5 km level. These suggest that the vertical temperature profiles could be affected by the convection mechanism for a wide range of altitudes in the troposphere even above LRM altitude. Applying the same analysis on one complete La Niña event during the survey period also reveals similar features.

The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

2017-12-01

The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2000-09-30

MRY) and I developed a collaboration with the NRL/SSMIS Lower-Atmospheric Sounding Capability program; Gene Poe (NRL, Team Leader). The effort is...Geophysical Society Annual Meeting (Nice, Fance ; April 2000), the Extratropical Cyclone Workshop (Monterey, CA; Sept. 2000), and in seminars at NCAR

Characterizing the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer using in situ balloon measurements: the BATAL campaigns of 2014-2017

Science.gov (United States)

Fairlie, T. D.; Vernier, J. P.; Deshler, T.; Pandit, A. K.; Ratnam, M. V.; Gadhavi, H. S.; Liu, H.; Natarajan, M.; Jayaraman, A.; Kumar, S.; Singh, A. K.; Stenchikov, G. L.; Wienhold, F.; Vignelles, D.; Bedka, K. M.; Avery, M. A.

2017-12-01

We present in situ balloon observations of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), a summertime accumulation of aerosols in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), associated with Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). The ATAL was first revealed by CALIPSO satellite data, and has been linked with deep convection of boundary layer pollution into the UTLS. The ATAL has potential implications for regional cloud properties, radiative transfer, and chemical processes in the UTLS. The "Balloon measurements of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (BATAL)" field campaigns to India and Saudi Arabia in were designed to characterize the physical and optical properties of the ATAL, to explore its composition, and its relationship with clouds in the UTLS. We launched 55 balloon flights from 4 locations, in summers 2014-2016. We return to India to make more balloon flights in summer 2017. Balloon payloads range from 500g to 50 kg, making measurements of meteorological parameters, ozone, water vapor, aerosol optical properties, concentration, volatility, and composition in the UTLS region. This project represents the most important effort to date to study UTLS aerosols during the ASM, given few in situ observations. We complement the in situ data presented with 3-d chemical transport simulations, designed to further explore the ATAL's chemical composition, the sensitivity of such to scavenging in parameterized deep convection, and the relative contribution of regional vs. rest-of-the-world pollution sources. The BATAL project has been a successful partnership between institutes in the US, India, Saudi Arabia, and Europe, and continues for the next 3-4 years, sponsored by the NASA Upper Atmosphere Research program. This partnership may provide a foundation for potential high-altitude airborne measurement studies during the ASM in the future.

Global Gravity Wave Variances from Aura MLS: Characteristics and Interpretation

Science.gov (United States)

2008-12-01

slight longitudinal variations, with secondary high- latitude peaks occurring over Greenland and Europe . As the QBO changes to the westerly phase, the...equatorial GW temperature variances from suborbital data (e.g., Eck- ermann et al. 1995). The extratropical wave variances are generally larger in the...emanating from tropopause altitudes, presumably radiated from tropospheric jet stream in- stabilities associated with baroclinic storm systems that

A Model of the Effect of Ozone Depletion on Lower-Stratospheric Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Mark A.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Gupta, Mohan L.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Pawson, Steven

2005-01-01

We have run two twenty-year integrations of a global circulation model using 1978-1980 and 1998-2000 monthly mean ozone climatologies. The ozone climatology is used solely in the radiation scheme of the model. Several key differences between the model runs will be presented. The temperature and potential vorticity (PV) structure of the lower stratosphere, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, is significantly changed using the 1998-2000 ozone climatology. In the Southern Hemisphere summer, the lapse rate and PV-defined polar tropopauses are both at altitudes on the order of several hundred meters greater than the 1978-1980 climatological run. The 380 K potential temperature surf= is likewise at a greater altitude. The mass of the extratropical lowermost stratosphere (between the tropopause and 380 K surface) remains unchanged. The altitude differences are not observed in the Northern Hemisphere. The different ozone fields do not produce a significant change in the annual extratropical stratosphere-troposphere exchange of mass although slight variations in the spatial distribution of the exchange exist. We are also investigating a delay in the breakup of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex due to the differing ozone climatologies.

Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Levermann, Anders

2014-01-01

The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have

A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

OpenAIRE

Laiyemo, Razaak O.

2012-01-01

Using data compiled by the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, a hurricane force extratropical cyclone climatology is created for three cold seasons. Using the criteria of Sanders and Gyakum (1980), it is found that 75% of the 259 storms explosively deepened. The frequency maximum in the Atlantic basin is located to the southeast of Greenland. In the Pacific, two maxima to the east of Japan are identified. These results are in good agreement with previous studies, despite differ...

Monitoring cirrus cloud and tropopause height over Hanoi using a compact lidar system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bui Van Hai; Dinh Van Trung; Nguyen Xuan Tuan; Dao Duy Thang; Nguyen Thanh Binh

2012-01-01

Cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere have attracted great attention due to their important role and impact on the atmospheric radioactive balance. Because cirrus clouds are located high in the atmosphere, their study requires a high resolution remote sensing technique not only for detection but also for the characterization of their properties. The lidar technique with its inherent high sensitivity and resolution has become an indispensable tool for studying and improving our understanding of cirrus cloud. Using lidar technique we can simultaneously measure the cloud height, thickness and follow its temporal evolution. In this paper we describe the development of a compact and highly sensitive lidar system with the aim to remotely monitor for the first time the cirrus clouds over Hanoi (2101:42 N, 10551:12 W). From the lidar data collected during the year 2011. We derive the mean cloud height, location of cloud top, the cloud mean thickness and their temporal evolution. We then compare the location of the cloud top with the position of the tropopause determined the radiosonde data and found good that the distance between cloud top and tropopause remains fairly stable, indicating that generally the top of cirrus clouds is the good tracer of the tropopause. We found that the cirrus clouds are generally located at height between 11.2 to 15 km with average height of 13.4 km. Their thickness is between 0.3 and 3.8 km with average value of 1.7 km. We also compare the properties of cirrus cloud with that observed at other locations around the world based on lidar technique. (author)

Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Jill; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.; Bane, John

2014-01-01

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teng, Haiyan; Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO (United States)

2008-06-15

Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950-1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. (orig.)

Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

2010-01-01

Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. In the

Scatterometer Observes Extratropical Transition of Pacific Typhoons

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. Timothy; Tang, Wenqing; Dunbar, R. Scott

1997-01-01

From September 15 to 25, 1996, NASA's scatterometer (NSCAT) monitored the evolution of twin typhoons, Violet and Tom, as they moved north from the western tropical Pacific, acquiring features of mid-latitude storms. The typhoons developed frontal structures, increased asymmetry, and dry air was introduced into their cores. Violet hit Japan, causing death and destruction (Figure 1), and Tom merged with a mid-latitude trough and evolved into a large extratropical storm with gale-force winds (Figure 2). We understand relatively little about the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones because of the complex thermodynamics involved [e.g., Sinclair, 1993], but we do know that the mid-latitude storms resulting from tropical cyclones usually generate strong winds and heavy precipitation. Since the transition usually occurs over the ocean, few measurements have been made. The transition is a fascinating science problem, but it also has important economic consequences. The transition occurs over the busiest trans-ocean shipping lanes, and when the resulting storms hit land, they usually devastate populated areas. NSCAT was successfully launched into a near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan. NSCAT's six antennas send microwave pulses at a frequency of 14 GHz to the Earth's surface and measure the backscatter. The antennas scan two 600-km bands of the ocean, which are separated by a 330-km data gap. From NSCAT observations, surface wind vectors can be derived at 25-km spatial resolution, covering 77% of the ice-free ocean in one day and 97% of the ocean in two days, under both clear and cloudy conditions.

Diabatic processes and the evolution of two contrasting extratropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne; Methven, John

2016-04-01

Two contrasting extratropical cyclones were observed over the United Kingdom during the summer 2012 field campaign of the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExtraTropical storms) project. The first cyclone, observed in July, was a shallow system typical of summer over west Europe while the second cyclone, observed in August, was a much deeper system which developed a potential vorticity (PV) tower. The evolution of these two cyclones was analysed and compared in terms of diabatic effects with respect to two aspects. The first aspect is the amount and distribution of heat produced during the development of each cyclone, measured by the cross-isentropic motion around the cyclone centre. The second aspect is the modification to the circulation around the cyclones' centres, measured by area-averaged isentropic vorticity. The contributions from individual diabatic processes, such as convection, cloud microphysics and radiation, to these two aspects is also considered. The cyclones were analysed via hindcast simulations with a research version of the Met Office Unified Model, enhanced with on-line tracers of diabatic changes of potential temperature and PV. A new methodology for the interpretation of these tracers was also implemented and used. The hindcast simulations were compared with the available dropsonde observations from the field campaign as well as operational analyses and radar rainfall rates. It is shown that, while boundary layer and turbulent mixing processes and cloud microphysics processes contributed to the development of both cyclones, the main differences between the cyclones in terms of diabatic effects could be attributed to differences in convective activity. It is also shown that the contribution from all these diabatic processes to changes in the circulation was modulated by the characteristics of advection around each cyclone in a highly nonlinear fashion. This research establishes a new framework for a systematic comparison

CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and biomass plantations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaeffer, M.; Eickhout, B.; Hoogwijk, M.; Strengers, B.; Vuuren, van D.J.; Leemans, R.; Opsteegh, T.

2006-01-01

We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios, aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2, we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass

A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

OpenAIRE

Zappa, Giuseppe; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.; Sansom, Phil G.; Stephenson, David B.

2013-01-01

The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the re- sponses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the unce...

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer Through Satellite and Balloon-Borne Measurements Combined With Modeling Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Vernier, J.-P.; Fairlie, T. D.; Natarajan, M.; Wegner, T.; Baker, N.; Crawford, J.; Moore, J.; Deshler, T.; Gadhavi, H.; Jayaraman, A.;

Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime

Science.gov (United States)

Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

2013-05-01

Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Area Expansion, Modoki Activity, and Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Variations

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

2014-01-01

The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection. PMID:24686481

Particulate sulfur in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere – sources and climate forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. G. Martinsson

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study is based on fine-mode aerosol samples collected in the upper troposphere (UT and the lowermost stratosphere (LMS of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during monthly intercontinental flights at 8.8–12 km altitude of the IAGOS-CARIBIC platform in the time period 1999–2014. The samples were analyzed for a large number of chemical elements using the accelerator-based methods PIXE (particle-induced X-ray emission and PESA (particle elastic scattering analysis. Here the particulate sulfur concentrations, obtained by PIXE analysis, are investigated. In addition, the satellite-borne lidar aboard CALIPSO is used to study the stratospheric aerosol load. A steep gradient in particulate sulfur concentration extends several kilometers into the LMS, as a result of increasing dilution towards the tropopause of stratospheric, particulate sulfur-rich air. The stratospheric air is diluted with tropospheric air, forming the extratropical transition layer (ExTL. Observed concentrations are related to the distance to the dynamical tropopause. A linear regression methodology handled seasonal variation and impact from volcanism. This was used to convert each data point into stand-alone estimates of a concentration profile and column concentration of particulate sulfur in a 3 km altitude band above the tropopause. We find distinct responses to volcanic eruptions, and that this layer in the LMS has a significant contribution to the stratospheric aerosol optical depth and thus to its radiative forcing. Further, the origin of UT particulate sulfur shows strong seasonal variation. We find that tropospheric sources dominate during the fall as a result of downward transport of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL formed in the Asian monsoon, whereas transport down from the Junge layer is the main source of UT particulate sulfur in the first half of the year. In this latter part of the year, the stratosphere is the clearly dominating source of

Extratropical Transition and Re-Intensification of Typhoon Toraji (2001): Large-Scale Circulations, Structural Characteristics, and Mechanism Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xiande; Wu, Lixin; Wang, Qi

2018-06-01

With the use of data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, the environment and structure of typhoon Toraji (2001) are investigated during the re-intensification (RI) stage of its extratropical transition (ET), a process in which a tropical cyclone transforms into an extratropical or mid-latitude cyclone. The results provide detailed insight into the ET system and identify the specific features of the system, including wind field, a cold and dry intrusion, and a frontal structure in the RI stage. The irrotational wind provides the values of upper-and lower-level jets within the transitioning tropical cyclone and the cyclone over Shandong Peninsula, accompanied with the reduced radius of maximum surface winds around the cyclone center in the lower troposphere. Simultaneously, dry air intrusion enhances the formation of fronts and leads to strong potential instability in the southwest and northeast quadrants. The distribution of frontogenesis shows that the tilting term associated with vertical motion dominates the positive frontogenesis surrounding the cyclone center, especially in the RI stage. The diagnostics of the kinetic energy budget suggest that the divergent kinetic energy generation whose time evolution corresponds well to that of cyclone center pressure is the primary factor for the development of Toraji in the lower troposphere. The ET of Toraji is a compound pattern that contains a development similar to that of a B-type extratropical cyclone within the maintaining phase and an A-type extratropical cyclone within the strengthening period, which corresponds to the distribution of the E-P fluxes with vertically downward propagation in the maintaining stage and upwards momentum in the strengthening phase.

Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2010-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

2016-04-01

A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

Convective sources of trajectories traversing the tropical tropopause layer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.-S. Tissier

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Transit properties across the tropical tropopause layer are studied using extensive forward and backward Lagrangian diabatic trajectories between cloud tops and the reference surface 380 K. After dividing the tropical domain into 11 subregions according to the distribution of land and convection, we estimate the contribution of each region to the upward mass flux across the 380 K surface and to the vertical distribution of convective sources and transit times over the period 2005–2008. The good agreement between forward and backward statistics is the basis of the results presented here. It is found that about 85 % of the tropical parcels at 380 K originate from convective sources throughout the year. From November to April, the sources are dominated by the warm pool which accounts for up to 70 % of the upward flux. During boreal summer, the Asian monsoon region is the largest contributor with similar contributions from the maritime and continental parts of the region; however, the vertical distributions and transit times associated with these two subregions are very different. Convective sources are generally higher over the continental part of the Asian monsoon region, with shorter transit times. We estimate the monthly averaged upward mass flux on the 380 K surface and show that the contribution from convective outflow accounts for 80 % on average and explains most of its seasonal variations. The largest contributor to the convective flux is the South Asian Pacific region (warm pool at 39 % throughout the year followed by oceanic regions surrounding continental Asia at 18 % and Africa at 10.8 %. Continental Asian lowlands account for 8 %. The Tibetan Plateau is a minor overall contributor (0.8 %, but transport from convective sources in this region is very efficient due to its central location beneath the Asian upper level anticyclone. The core results are robust to uncertainties in data and methods, but the vertical source

Tropical to extratropical: Marine environmental changes associated with Superstorm Sandy prior to its landfall

Science.gov (United States)

Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

2014-12-01

Superstorm Sandy was a massive storm that impacted the U.S. East Coast on 22-31 October 2012, generating large waves, record storm surges, and major damage. The Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system was applied to hindcast this storm. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity of air-sea-wave coupling were used to depict characteristics of this immense storm as it underwent tropical to extratropical transition. Regardless of coupling complexity, model-simulated tracks were all similar to the observations, suggesting the storm track was largely determined by large-scale synoptic atmospheric circulation, rather than by local processes resolved through model coupling. Analyses of the sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, and upper atmospheric shear parameters showed that as a result of the extratropical transition and despite the storm encountering much cooler shelf water, its intensity and strength were not significantly impacted. Ocean coupling was not as important as originally thought for Sandy.

Modulation of surface meteorological parameters by extratropical planetary-scale Rossby waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Niranjan Kumar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines the link between upper-tropospheric planetary-scale Rossby waves and surface meteorological parameters based on the observations made in association with the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX campaign at an extratropical site at Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences, Nainital (29.45° N, 79.5° E during November–December 2011. The spectral analysis of the tropospheric wind field from radiosonde measurements indicates a predominance power of around 8 days in the upper troposphere during the observational period. An analysis of the 200 hPa meridional wind (v200 hPa anomalies from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA reanalysis shows distinct Rossby-wave-like structures over a high-altitude site in the central Himalayan region. Furthermore, the spectral analysis of global v200 hPa anomalies indicates the Rossby waves are characterized by zonal wave number 6. The amplification of the Rossby wave packets over the site leads to persistent subtropical jet stream (STJ patterns, which further affects the surface weather conditions. The propagating Rossby waves in the upper troposphere along with the undulations in the STJ create convergence and divergence regions in the mid-troposphere. Therefore, the surface meteorological parameters such as the relative humidity, wind speeds, and temperature are synchronized with the phase of the propagating Rossby waves. Moreover, the present study finds important implications for medium-range forecasting through the upper-level Rossby waves over the study region.

Transport of short-lived species into the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Science.gov (United States)

Ashfold, M. J.; Harris, N. R. P.; Atlas, E. L.; Manning, A. J.; Pyle, J. A.

2012-07-01

We use NAME, a trajectory model, to investigate the routes and timescales over which air parcels reach the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Our aim is to assist the planning of aircraft campaigns focussed on improving knowledge of such transport. We focus on Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific which appears to be a particularly important source of air that enters the TTL. We first study the TTL above Borneo in November 2008, under neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Air parcels (trajectories) arriving in the lower TTL (below ~15 km) are most likely to have travelled from the boundary layer (BL; planning flights for the long-duration aircraft now capable of making such measurements.

COSMIC Radio Occultation technique for measurement of the tropopause during tropical cyclones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biondi, Riccardo; Neubert, Torsten; Syndergaard, Stig

Basin during July 2008 and reached a maximum intensity of Category 3 and the typhoon Hondo, formed in the south Indian basin during February 2008 with maximum intensity of Category 4. Using measurements from a variety of earth observation satellites (A-Train constellation) and from aircraft together...... and they cool the tropopause layers. The GPS radio occultation technique is useful for studying severe weather phenomena because the GPS signals penetrate through clouds and allow measurements of atmospheric profiles related to temperature, pressure, and water vapour with high vertical resolution...

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

A Long-Lived Tracer Perspective on the Origin of Air in the Tropical Tropopause Layer during ATTREX

Science.gov (United States)

Hintsa, E. J.; Moore, F.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Nance, J. D.; Elkins, J. W.; Gao, R.; Rollins, D. W.; Thornberry, T. D.; Watts, L.; Fahey, D. W.; Daube, B. C.; Pittman, J. V.; Wofsy, S. C.; Atlas, E. L.; Navarro, M. A.; Dessler, A. E.; Mahoney, M.

2013-12-01

The origin of air in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and the subsequent transport pathways of these air masses play a critical role in the delivery of trace gases, including ozone depleting substances and water vapor, to the stratosphere. The Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) is designed to study this transport and processing in the TTL over the Pacific Ocean, including how dehydration occurs in this region and how trace gases involved in ozone depletion and climate reach the tropical lower stratosphere. For this mission, the NASA Global Hawk aircraft is carrying a suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments for trace gases, aerosols, radiation, and meteorology. Two deployments have occurred from NASA/Dryden Flight Research Center, with flights to the eastern and central tropical Pacific. Two more deployments, targeting the western equatorial Pacific, are planned for 2014 from Guam and one other location. Over 100 vertical profiles from about 14 to 18 km have now been obtained from the tropics to midlatitudes, as well as long sections at nearly constant altitude. Results are shown here from the UAS Chromatograph for Atmospheric Trace Species (UCATS) instrument and other sensors. UCATS was configured to measure the long-lived tracers N2O, SF6, H2, and CH4, as well as water vapor, CO, and ozone. Results thus far have shown a mix of midlatitude and tropical air in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, particularly for flights in November 2011. Recent results from February 2013 indicate much more homogeneous air masses in the TTL during this period. This homogeneity may be related to fact that these flights occurred in the middle of (northern) winter rather than fall, or to the 'sudden stratospheric warming' in January 2013, with sinking motion in the Arctic polar region and a corresponding rising motion and cooling in the tropics. Data will be presented in the context of trajectory model calculations of the origin and fate of the air

How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

Science.gov (United States)

Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

2017-09-01

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Yu. Krasilnikov

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, James F.; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne; Pfahl, Stephan

2017-12-01

The path and speed of extratropical cyclones along the east coast of North America influence their societal impact. This work characterizes the climatological relationship between cyclone track path and speed, and blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An analysis of Lagrangian cyclone track propagation speed and angle shows that the percentage of cyclones with blocks is larger for cyclones that propagate northward or southeastward, as is the size of the blocked region near the cyclone. Cyclone-centered composites show that propagation of cyclones relative to blocks is consistent with steering by the block: northward tracks more often have a block east/northeast of the cyclone; slow tracks tend to have blocks due north of the cyclone. Comparison with the NAO shows that to first-order blocking and the NAO steer cyclones in a similar manner. However, blocked cyclones are more likely to propagate northward, increasing the likelihood of cyclone related impacts.

Cirrus cloud-temperature interactions in the tropical tropopause layer: a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. R. Taylor

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Thin cirrus clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL have important ramifications for radiative transfer, stratospheric humidity, and vertical transport. A horizontally extensive and vertically thin cirrus cloud in the TTL was detected by the Cloud Aerosol LIDAR and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO on 27–29 January 2009 in the Tropical Eastern Pacific region, distant from any regions of deep convection. These observations indicate that the cloud is close to 3000 km in length along the CALIPSO orbit track. Measurements over this three day period indicate that the cloud event extended over a region from approximately 15° S to 10° N and 90° W to 150° W and may be one of the most extensive cirrus events ever observed. Coincident temperature observations from the Constellation of Observing Satellites for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC suggest that the cloud formed in-situ as a result of a cold anomaly arising from a midlatitude intrusion. The event appears to last for up to 2 days and the temperature observations do not show any indication of the expected infrared heating. It is hypothesized that the cloud could be maintained by either nucleation of numerous small ice crystals that don't sediment or by multiple localized ice nucleation events driven by temperature variability at scales smaller than the overall cloud field, producing small ice-crystal sizes which have sufficiently long residence times (≈53 h to maintain the cloud. It is possible that the residence times are augmented by vertical motion which could also act to offset the expected infrared heating. Further observations of similar events will be required in order to conclusively explain this curious cloud.

Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Jia

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

Dehydration in the tropical tropopause layer estimated from the water vapor match

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Inai

2013-09-01

Full Text Available We apply the match technique, whereby the same air mass is observed more than once and such cases are termed a "match", to study the dehydration process associated with horizontal advection in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL over the western Pacific. The matches are obtained from profile data taken by the Soundings of Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region (SOWER campaign network observations using isentropic trajectories calculated from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF operational analyses. For the matches identified, extensive screening procedures are performed to verify the representativeness of the air parcel and the validity of the isentropic treatment, and to check for possible water injection by deep convection, consistency between the sonde data and analysis field referring to the ozone conservation. Among the matches that passed the screening tests, we identified some cases corresponding to the first quantitative value of dehydration associated with horizontal advection in the TTL. The statistical features of dehydration for the air parcels advected in the lower TTL are derived from the matches. The threshold of nucleation is estimated to be 146 ± 1% (1σ in relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice, while dehydration seems to continue until RHice reaches about 75 ± 23% (1σ in the altitude region from 350 to 360 K. The efficiency of dehydration expressed by the relaxation time required for the supersaturated air parcel to approach saturation is empirically determined from the matches. A relaxation time of approximately one hour reproduces the second water vapor observation reasonably well, given the first observed water vapor amount and the history of the saturation mixing ratio during advection in the lower TTL.

Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

2006-01-01

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

Sensitivity of South American tropical climate to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: focus on teleconnections with tropics and extratropics (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Khodri, M.; Kageyama, M.; Roche, D. M.

2009-12-01

Proxy data over tropical latitudes for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been interpreted as a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and so far linked to a mechanism analogous to the modern day “meridional-mode” in the Atlantic Ocean. Here we have explored alternative mechanisms, related to the direct impact of the LGM global changes in the dry static stability on tropical moist deep convection. We have used a coupled ocean-atmosphere model capable of capturing the thermodynamical structure of the atmosphere and the tropical component of the Hadley and Walker circulations. In each experiment, we have applied either all the LGM forcings, or the individual contributions of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations, ice sheet topography and/or albedo to explore the hydrological response over tropical latitudes with a focus on South America. The dominant forcing for the LGM tropical temperature and precipitation changes is found to be due to the reduced GHG, through the direct effect of reduced radiative heating (Clausius-Clapeyron relationship). The LGM GHG is also responsible for increased extra-tropical static stability which strengthens the Hadley Cell. Stronger subsidence over northern tropics then produces an amplification of the northern tropics drying initially due to the direct cooling effect. The land ice sheet is also able to promote the Hadley cell feedback mostly via the topographic effect on the extra-tropical dry static stability and on the position of the subtropical jets. Our results therefore suggest that the communication between the extratropics and the tropics is tighter during LGM and does not necessarily rely on the “meridional-mode” mechanism. The Hadley cell response is constrained by the requirement that diabatic heating in the tropics balances cooling in subtropics. We show that such extratropics-tropics dependence is stronger at the LGM because of the stronger perturbation of northern extra tropical thermal and

The stable isotopic composition of molecular hydrogen in the tropopause region probed by the CARIBIC aircraft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Batenburg

2012-05-01

Full Text Available More than 450 air samples that were collected in the upper troposphere – lower stratosphere (UTLS region by the CARIBIC aircraft (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container have been analyzed for molecular hydrogen (H₂ mixing ratios (χ(H₂ and H₂ isotopic composition (deuterium content, δ_D.

More than 120 of the analyzed samples contained air from the lowermost stratosphere (LMS. These show that χ(H₂ does not vary appreciably with O₃-derived height above the thermal tropopause (TP, whereas δ_D does increase with height. The isotope enrichment is caused by H₂ production and destruction processes that enrich the stratospheric H₂ reservoir in deuterium (D; the exact shapes of the profiles are mainly determined by mixing of stratospheric with tropospheric air. Tight negative correlations are found between δ_D and the mixing ratios of methane (χ(CH₄ and nitrous oxide (χ(N₂O, as a result of the relatively long lifetimes of these three species. The correlations are described by δ_D[‰]=−0.35 · χ(CH₄[ppb]+768 and δ_D[‰]=−1.90· χ(N₂O[ppb]+745. These correlations are similar to previously published results and likely hold globally for the LMS.

Samples that were collected from the Indian subcontinent up to 40° N before, during and after the summer monsoon season show no significant seasonal change in χ(H₂, but δ_D is up to 12.3‰ lower in the July, August and September monsoon samples. This δ_D decrease is correlated with the χ(CH₄ increase in these samples. The significant correlation with χ(CH₄ and the absence of a perceptible χ(H₂ increase that accompanies the δ_D decrease indicates that microbial production of

Characteristics of cirrus clouds and tropical tropopause layer: Seasonal variation and long-term trends

Science.gov (United States)

Pandit, Amit Kumar; Gadhavi, Harish; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Jayaraman, A.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

2014-12-01

In the present study, characteristics of tropical cirrus clouds observed during 1998-2013 using a ground-based lidar located at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), India, are presented. Altitude occurrences of cirrus clouds as well as its top and base heights are estimated using the advanced mathematical tool, wavelet covariance transform (WCT). The association of observed cirrus cloud properties with the characteristics of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is investigated using co-located radiosonde measurements available since 2006. In general, cirrus clouds occurred for about 44% of the total lidar observation time (6246 h). The most probable altitude at which cirrus clouds occurr is 14.5 km. The occurrence of cirrus clouds exhibited a strong seasonal dependence with maximum occurrence during monsoon season (76%) and minimum occurrence during winter season (33%) which is consistent with the results reported recently using space-based lidar measurements. Most of the time, cirrus top was located within the TTL (between cold point and convective outflow level) while cirrus base occurred near the convective outflow level. The geometrical thickness of the cirrus cloud is found to be higher during monsoon season compared to winter and there exists a weak inverse relation with TTL thickness. During the observation period the percentage occurrence of cirrus clouds near the tropopause showed an 8.4% increase at 70% confidence level. In the last 16 years, top and base heights of cirrus cloud increased by 0.56 km and 0.41 km, respectively.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Nitrogen oxides and ozone in the tropopause region of the Northern Hemisphere: Measurements from commercial aircraft in 1995/1996 and 1997

Science.gov (United States)

Brunner, Dominik; Staehelin, Johannes; Jeker, Dominique; Wernli, Heini; Schumann, Ulrich

2001-11-01

Measurements of nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2) and ozone (O3) were performed from a Swissair B-747 passenger aircraft in two extended time periods (May 1995 to May 1996, August to November 1997) in the framework of the Swiss NOXAR and the European POLINAT 2 project. The measurements were obtained on a total of 623 flights between Europe and destinations in the United States and the Far East. NO2 measurements were obtained only after December 1995 and were less precise than the NO measurements. Therefore daytime NO2 values were derived from measured NO and O3 concentrations assuming photostationary equilibrium. The completed NOx data set (measured NO, measured NO2 during night, and calculated NO2 during day) includes a complete annual cycle and is the most extensive and representative data set currently available for the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) covering a significant proportion of the northern hemisphere between 15°N and 65°N. NOx concentrations in midlatitudes (30°-60°N) showed a marked seasonal variation both in the UT and the LS with a maximum in summer (median/mean values of 159/264 pptv in UT, 199/237 pptv in LS) and a minimum in winter (51/99 pptv in UT, 67/91 pptv in LS). Mean NOx concentrations were generally much higher than the respective median values, in particular in the UT, which reflects the important contribution from comparatively few very high concentrations observed in large-scale convection/lightning and small-scale aircraft plumes. Seasonal mean NOx concentrations in the UT were up to 3-4 times higher over continental regions than over the North Atlantic during summer. Lightning production of NO and convective vertical transport from the polluted boundary layer thus appear to have dominated the upper tropospheric NOx budget over these continental regions, particularly during summer. Ozone concentrations at aircraft cruising levels typically varied by an order of magnitude due to the strong vertical gradient in

Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia; Schneider, Birgit; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Segschneider, Joachim; Tjiputra, Jerry; Heinze, Christoph; Joos, Fortunat

2011-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid-latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra-tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra-tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra-tropics and 25% in the southern extra-tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

Explosive cyclogenesis of extra-tropical cyclone Klaus and its effects in Catalonia. A case study of hurricane force gusts.

Science.gov (United States)

Calvo, J.; López, J. A.; Martín, F.; Morales, G.; Pascual, R.

2009-09-01

On 23th and 24th of January 2009, the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus crossed the north of Spain and the south of France producing several deaths and generalized damages. The cyclone of Atlantic origin underwent an explosive deepening of more than 1 hPa per hour at the surface level. Catalonia region was affected by gale-force winds and hurricane gusts. The Atlantic depression underwent a process called explosive cyclogenesis (when a surface cyclone deepens at a rate higher than 1 hPa/hr over 24 hours, approximately) in front of the Spanish Atlantic coasts. In this study we focus on its impact in the Catalonia areas where both synoptic and local effects were important. Also we evaluate the performance of the numerical weather prediction model outputs against observed data.

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja; Eliseev, Alexey V; Levermann, Anders

2014-01-01

The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions. (letter)

Climatic Change and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Storm-tracks: Changes in Transient Eddies Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

An evidence of our understanding of the general circulation is whether we can predict changes in the general circulation that might be associated with past or future climate changes. Changes in the location, intensity or seasonality of major climatological features of the general circulation could be more important than average temperature changes, particularly where these changes could affect local hydrology, energy balances, etc. Under these major climatological features we assume the poleward expansion of the tropical circulation (Hadley circulation), static stability (changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere), role of SST forcing, sea ice extension, extratropical eddies behavior. We have a question: would the climate change significantly affect the location and intensity of midlatitude storm-tracks and associated jets? Mean-flow interaction in midlatitudes produces low-frequency variations in the latitude of the jets. It is reasonable to think that a modest climate change might significantly affects the jets location and their associated storm tracks. The storm-tracks are defined as the region of strong baroclinicity (maximum meridional temperature gradient), which are determined on the basis of eddy statistics like eddy fluxes of angular momentum, energy, and water (with the use of high-bandpass filter). In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two major storms: in the region of Atlantic and Pacific. The storm-tracks play important role in the dynamics of weather and climate. They affect the global energy cycle and the hydrological cycle, and as a result they bring heavy rains and other hazardous weather phenomena in the middle latitudes. The recent increase in global tropopause heights is closely associated with systematic temperature changes below and above the tropopause. Temperature increases in the troposphere and decreases in the stratosphere. The pattern of warming and cooling also affects the zonal wind structure in the region of

An A-Train Climatology of Extratropical Cyclone Clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Booth, James F.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Kahn, Brian; Bauer, Mike

2016-01-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the main purveyors of precipitation in the mid-latitudes, especially in winter, and have a significant radiative impact through the clouds they generate. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have trouble representing precipitation and clouds in ETCs, and this might partly explain why current GCMs disagree on to the evolution of these systems in a warming climate. Collectively, the A-train observations of MODIS, CloudSat, CALIPSO, AIRS and AMSR-E have given us a unique perspective on ETCs: over the past 10 years these observations have allowed us to construct a climatology of clouds and precipitation associated with these storms. This has proved very useful for model evaluation as well in studies aimed at improving understanding of moist processes in these dynamically active conditions. Using the A-train observational suite and an objective cyclone and front identification algorithm we have constructed cyclone centric datasets that consist of an observation-based characterization of clouds and precipitation in ETCs and their sensitivity to large scale environments. In this presentation, we will summarize the advances in our knowledge of the climatological properties of cloud and precipitation in ETCs acquired with this unique dataset. In particular, we will present what we have learned about southern ocean ETCs, for which the A-train observations have filled a gap in this data sparse region. In addition, CloudSat and CALIPSO have for the first time provided information on the vertical distribution of clouds in ETCs and across warm and cold fronts. We will also discuss how these observations have helped identify key areas for improvement in moist processes in recent GCMs. Recently, we have begun to explore the interaction between aerosol and cloud cover in ETCs using MODIS, CloudSat and CALIPSO. We will show how aerosols are climatologically distributed within northern hemisphere ETCs, and how this relates to cloud cover.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Gómara, Iñigo; Masato, Giacomo; Dacre, Helen F.; Woollings, Tim; Caballero, Rodrigo

2015-04-01

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 2: A link mediated by auroral atmospheric gravity waves?

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P. Prikryl

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Cases of mesoscale cloud bands in extratropical cyclones are observed a few hours after atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs are launched from the auroral ionosphere. It is suggested that the solar-wind-generated auroral AGWs contribute to processes that release instabilities and initiate slantwise convection thus leading to cloud bands and growth of extratropical cyclones. Also, if the AGWs are ducted to low latitudes, they could influence the development of tropical cyclones. The gravity-wave-induced vertical lift may modulate the slantwise convection by releasing the moist symmetric instability at near-threshold conditions in the warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones. Latent heat release associated with the mesoscale slantwise convection has been linked to explosive cyclogenesis and severe weather. The circumstantial and statistical evidence of the solar wind influence on extratropical cyclones is further supported by a statistical analysis of high-level clouds (<440 mb extracted from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP D1 dataset. A statistically significant response of the high-level cloud area index (HCAI to fast solar wind from coronal holes is found in mid-to-high latitudes during autumn-winter and in low latitudes during spring-summer. In the extratropics, this response of the HCAI to solar wind forcing is consistent with the effect on tropospheric vorticity found by Wilcox et al. (1974 and verified by Prikryl et al. (2009. In the tropics, the observed HCAI response, namely a decrease in HCAI at the arrival of solar wind stream followed by an increase a few days later, is similar to that in the northern and southern mid-to-high latitudes. The amplitude of the response nearly doubles for stream interfaces associated with the interplanetary magnetic field BZ component shifting southward. When the IMF BZ after the stream interface shifts northward, the autumn-winter effect weakens or shifts to lower (mid latitudes

A Numerical Simulation of Extratropical Storm Surge and Hydrodynamic Response in the Bohai Sea

OpenAIRE

Ding, Yumei; Ding, Lei

2014-01-01

A hindcast of typical extratropical storm surge occurring in the Bohai Sea in October 2003 is performed using a three-dimensional (3D) Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The storm surge model is forced by 10 m winds obtained from the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. It is shown that the simulated storm surge and tides agree well with the observations. The nonlinear interaction between the surge and astronomical tides, the spatial distribution of the max...

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

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Joaquim G. Pinto

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track, while cyclones tend to occur more regulary on the western side of the North Atlantic basin near Newfoundland. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of cyclone tracking method using cyclone track data from 15 methods derived from ERA-Interim data (1979–2010. Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean of winter [December – February (DJF] cyclone passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. The mean number of cyclone counts and their variance are compared between methods, revealing considerable differences, particularly for the latter. Results show that all different tracking methods qualitatively capture similar large-scale spatial patterns of underdispersion and overdispersion over the study region. The quantitative differences can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods. Nevertheless, overdispersion is statistically significant for almost all methods over parts of the eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, and is therefore considered as a robust feature. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO on cyclone clustering displays a similar pattern for all tracking methods, with one maximum near Iceland and another between the Azores and Iberia. The differences in variance between methods are not related with different sensitivities to the NAO, which can account to over 50% of the clustering in some regions. We conclude that the general features of underdispersion and overdispersion of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO on cyclone dispersion.

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer: Balloon-Borne Measurements, Satellite Observations and Modeling Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fairlie, T. D.; Vernier, J.-P.; Natarajan, M.; Deshler, Terry; Liu, H.; Wegner, T.; Baker, N.; Gadhavi, H.; Jayaraman, A.; Pandit, A.;

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

Science.gov (United States)

Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

2014-12-01

The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This

What is the role of laminar cirrus cloud on regulating the cross-tropopause water vapor transport?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, D. L.; Gong, J.; Tsai, V.

2016-12-01

Laminar cirrus is an extremely thin ice cloud found persistently inhabit in the tropical and subtropical tropopause. Due to its sub-visible optical depth and high formation altitude, knowledge about the characteristics of this special type of cloud is very limited, and debates are ongoing about its role on regulating the cross-tropopause transport of water vapor. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard the CALIPSO satellite has been continuously providing us with unprecedented details of the laminar cirrus since its launch in 2006. In this research, we adapted Winker and Trepte (1998)'s eyeball detection method. A JAVA-based applet and graphical user interface (GUI) is developed to manually select the laminar, which then automatically record the cloud properties, such as spatial location, shape, thickness, tilt angle, and whether its isolated or directly above a deep convective cloud. Monthly statistics of the laminar cirrus are then separately analyzed according to the orbit node, isolated/convective, banded/non-banded, etc. Monthly statistics support a diurnal difference in the occurring frequency and formation height of the laminar cirrus. Also, isolated and convective laminars show diverse behaviors (height, location, distribution, etc.), which strongly implies that their formation mechanisms and their roles on depleting the upper troposphere water vapor are distinct. We further study the relationship between laminar characteristics and collocated and coincident water vapor gradient measurements from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations below and above the laminars. The identified relationship provides a quantitative answer to the role laminar cirrus plays on regulating the water vapor entering the stratosphere.

Understanding the impact of climate change on Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDonald, Ruth E. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

2011-10-15

Extra-tropical cyclones strongly influence weather and climate in mid-latitudes and any future changes may have large impacts on the local scale. In this study Northern Hemisphere storms are analysed in ensembles of time-slice experiments carried out with an atmosphere only model with present day and future anthropogenic emissions. The present day experiment is forced by observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice. The sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice for the future experiment are derived by adding anomalies, from parallel but lower resolution coupled model experiments, to the observed data. The storms in the present day simulation compare fairly well with observations in all seasons but some errors remain. In the future simulations there is some evidence of a poleward shift in the storm tracks in some seasons and regions. There are fewer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring. The northeast end of the North Atlantic storm track is shifted south in winter giving more storms and increased frequency of strong winds over the British Isles. This shift is related to an increase in baroclinicity and a southward shift of the jet that occurs as a response to a minimum in ocean warming in the central North Atlantic. An increase in the frequency of storms over the UK is likely to cause enhanced levels of wind and flood damage. These results concur with those from some other models, however, large uncertainties remain. (orig.)

Impact of deep convection in the tropical tropopause layer in West Africa: in-situ observations and mesoscale modelling

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F. Fierli

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO₂ during August 2006 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely to have originated from convective cloud east of the flights. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that convection can influence the composition of the upper troposphere above the level of main outflow for an event of deep convection close to the observation site. Model analysis also shows that deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.

Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer: Implications for Cirrus Occurrence, Cirrus Microphysical Properties, and Dehydration of Air Entering the Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Eric; Kaercher, Bernd; Ueyama, Rei; Pfister, Leonhard

2017-01-01

Recent laboratory experiments have advanced our understanding of the physical properties and ice nucleating abilities of aerosol particles atlow temperatures. In particular, aerosols containing organics will transition to a glassy state at low temperatures, and these glassy aerosols are moderately effective as ice nuclei. These results have implications for ice nucleation in the cold Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL; 13-19 km). We have developed a detailed cloud microphysical model that includes heterogeneous nucleation on a variety of aerosol types and homogeneous freezing of aqueous aerosols. This model has been incorporated into one-dimensional simulations of cirrus and water vapor driven by meteorological analysis temperature and wind fields. The model includes scavenging of ice nuclei by sedimenting ice crystals. The model is evaluated by comparing the simulated cloud properties and water vapor concentrations with aircraft and satellite measurements. In this presentation, I will discuss the relative importance of homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation, the impact of ice nuclei scavenging as air slowly ascends through the TTL, and the implications for the final dehydration of air parcels crossing the tropical cold-point tropopause and entering the tropical stratosphere.

Comparisons of cirrus cloud properties between polluted and pristine air based on in-situ observations from the NSF HIPPO, EU INCA and NASA ATTREX campaigns

Science.gov (United States)

Diao, M.; Schumann, U.; Jensen, J. B.; Minikin, A.

2015-12-01

The radiative forcing of cirrus clouds is influenced by microphysical (e.g., ice crystal number concentration and size distribution) and macroscopic properties. Currently it is still unclear how the formation of cirrus clouds and their microphysical properties are influenced by anthropogenic emissions. In this work, we use airborne in-situ observations to compare cirrus cloud properties between polluted and pristine regions. Our dataset includes: the NSF HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) Global campaign (2009-2011), the EU Interhemispheric Differences In Cirrus Properties from Anthropogenic Emissions (INCA) campaign (2000) and the NASA Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) campaign (2014). The combined dataset include observations of both extratropical (HIPPO and INCA) and tropical (ATTREX) cirrus, over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We use the in-situ measured carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratio as a pollution indicator, and compare ice microphysical properties (i.e., ice crystal number concentration (Nc) and number-weighted mean diameter (Dc)) between air masses with higher and lower CO. All analyses are restricted to T ≤ -40°C. By analyzing ice crystals (Fast-2DC, 87.5-1600 µm) in HIPPO, we found that Dc decreases with increasing CO concentration at multiple constant pressure levels. In addition, analysis of INCA data shows that Nc and extinction of small ice particles (FSSP 3-20 µm) increases with increasing CO. Particles < 87.5 µm in Fast-2DC data are not considered due to uncertainty in sample volume, and the FSSP measurements are subject to possible shattering. We further analyze the ice crystals (SPEC FCDP, 1-50 µm) in the tropical tropopause layer in ATTREX. At -70°C to -90°C, we found that the average Nc (Dc) increases (decreases) at higher CO. Overall, our results suggest that extratropical and tropical cirrus are likely to have more numerous small ice particles, when sampled in the more polluted background. Back

Corrigendum to "A novel downscaling technique for the linkage of global and regional air quality modeling" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9169–9185, 2009

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Y. F. Lam

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Recently, downscaling global atmospheric model outputs (GCTM for the USEPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ Initial (IC and Boundary Conditions (BC have become practical because of the rapid growth of computational technologies that allow global simulations to be completed within a reasonable time. The traditional method of generating IC/BC by profile data has lost its advocates due to the weakness of the limited horizontal and vertical variations found on the gridded boundary layers. Theoretically, high quality GCTM IC/BC should yield a better result in CMAQ. Unfortunately, several researchers have found that the outputs from GCTM IC/BC are not necessarily better than profile IC/BC due to the excessive transport of O₃ aloft in GCTM IC/BC. In this paper, we intend to investigate the effects of using profile IC/BC and global atmospheric model data. In addition, we are suggesting a novel approach to resolve the existing issue in downscaling.

In the study, we utilized the GEOS-Chem model outputs to generate time-varied and layer-varied IC/BC for year 2002 with the implementation of tropopause determining algorithm in the downscaling process (i.e., based on chemical (O₃ tropopause definition. The comparison between the implemented tropopause approach and the profile IC/BC approach is performed to demonstrate improvement of considering tropopause. It is observed that without using tropopause information in the downscaling process, unrealistic O₃ concentrations are created at the upper layers of IC/BC. This phenomenon has caused over-prediction of surface O₃ in CMAQ. In addition, the amount of over-prediction is greatly affected by temperature and latitudinal location of the study domain. With the implementation of the algorithm, we have successfully resolved the incompatibility issues in the vertical layer structure between global and regional chemistry models to yield better surface O₃

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Storm Cindy From a GLM, ISS LIS and GPM Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Heuscher, Lena; Gatlin, Patrick; Petersen, Walt; Liu, Chuntao; Cecil, Daniel J.

2017-01-01

The distribution of lightning with respect to tropical convective precipitation systems has been well established in previous studies and more recently by the successful Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). However, TRMM did not provide information about precipitation features poleward of +/-38 deg latitude. Hence we focus on the evolution of lightning within extra-tropical cyclones traversing the mid-latitudes, especially its oceans. To facilitate such studies, lightning data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) onboard GOES-16 was combined with precipitation features obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation of satellites.

Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

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M. A. Navarro

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ∼ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA, ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ∼  61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, total inorganic chlorine (Cly, and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr occurring on ice crystals.

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

An inter-decadal increase in summer sea level pressure over the Mongolian region around the early 1990s

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Haiyan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Li, Xiuzhen; Chen, Ruidan

2018-05-01

The East Asian summer monsoon is affected by processes in the mid-high latitudes in addition to various tropical and subtropical systems. The present study investigates the summer sea level pressure (SLP) variability over northern East Asia (NEA) and emphasizes the closed active center over the Mongolian region. It is found that the seasonal mean Mongolian SLP (MSLP) anomaly is closely connected with the variability of summertime regional synoptic extra-tropical cyclones on longer time scales. A significant inter-decadal increase in the MSLP around the early 1990s has been detected, which is accompanied by a weakening in the activity of regional extra-tropical cyclones. Recent warming over NEA may have a contribution to the inter-decadal change, which features evidently meridional inhomogeneity around 45°N. The inhomogeneous air temperature anomaly distribution results in decreased vertical wind shear, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity over the Mongolian region, and thus inactive regional cyclones and increased MSLP in the latter decade. The associated temperature anomaly distribution may be partly attributed to regional inhomogeneity in cloud and radiation anomalies, and it is further maintained by two positive feedback mechanisms associated with atmospheric internal processes: one via adiabatic heating and the other via horizontal temperature advection.

Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reck, R.A.

1994-01-01

This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

Climatology and long-term evolution of ozone and carbon monoxide in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS at northern midlatitudes, as seen by IAGOS from 1995 to 2013

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Y. Cohen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In situ measurements in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS have been performed in the framework of the European research infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System for ozone since 1994 and for carbon monoxide (CO since 2002. The flight tracks cover a wide range of longitudes in the northern extratropics, extending from the North American western coast (125° W to the eastern Asian coast (135° E and more recently over the northern Pacific Ocean. Several tropical regions are also sampled frequently, such as the Brazilian coast, central and southern Africa, southeastern Asia, and the western half of the Maritime Continent. As a result, a new set of climatologies for O3 (August 1994–December 2013 and CO (December 2001–December 2013 in the upper troposphere (UT, tropopause layer, and lower stratosphere (LS are made available, including gridded horizontal distributions on a semi-global scale and seasonal cycles over eight well-sampled regions of interest in the northern extratropics. The seasonal cycles generally show a summertime maximum in O3 and a springtime maximum in CO in the UT, in contrast to the systematic springtime maximum in O3 and the quasi-absence of a seasonal cycle of CO in the LS. This study highlights some regional variabilities in the UT, notably (i a west–east difference of O3 in boreal summer with up to 15 ppb more O3 over central Russia compared with northeast America, (ii a systematic west–east gradient of CO from 60 to 140° E, especially noticeable in spring and summer with about 5 ppb by 10 degrees longitude, (iii a broad spring/summer maximum of CO over northeast Asia, and (iv a spring maximum of O3 over western North America. Thanks to almost 20 years of O3 and 12 years of CO measurements, the IAGOS database is a unique data set to derive trends in the UTLS at northern midlatitudes. Trends in O3 in the UT are positive and statistically significant in most

Hindcast of extreme sea states in North Atlantic extratropical storms

Science.gov (United States)

Ponce de León, Sonia; Guedes Soares, Carlos

2015-02-01

This study examines the variability of freak wave parameters around the eye of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The data was obtained from a hindcast performed with the WAve Model (WAM) model forced by the wind fields of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The hindcast results were validated against the wave buoys and satellite altimetry data showing a good correlation. The variability of different wave parameters was assessed by applying the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique on the hindcast data. From the EOF analysis, it can be concluded that the first empirical orthogonal function (V1) accounts for greater share of variability of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), directional spreading (SPR) and Benjamin-Feir index (BFI). The share of variance in V1 varies for cyclone and variable: for the 2nd storm and Hs V1 contains 96 % of variance while for the 3rd storm and BFI V1 accounts only for 26 % of variance. The spatial patterns of V1 show that the variables are distributed around the cyclones centres mainly in a lobular fashion.

Observational-numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical Cyclones Using FGGE Data

Science.gov (United States)

Wash, C. H.; Elsberry, R. L.

1984-01-01

The accomplishments, current research, and future plans of a study investigating the development, maturation, and decay of maritime extratropical cyclones are reported. Three cases of explosive cyclogenesis during the first GARP global experiment (FGGE) DOP-1 were studied diagnostically using storm-following budgets derived from the ECMWF and GLAS level III-b analyses. Mass, vorticity and angular momentum budgets for the moving storm environment were computed for each case. Key results from these studies include: (1) demonstration that the FGGE analyses can be used to explore oceanic circulations; (2) isolation of the role of upper level jet streaks in the initiation of the explosive period in all three cases; and (3) illustration of the lower tropospheric destabilization during each rapid deepening period, which is primarily due to sensible heating of the cold air by the warmer ocean surface. The physics package of the Navy global forecast model was successfully utilized in a semi-prognostic mode to estimate diabatic components of oceanic cyclone systems. Fields of sensible and latent heat fluxes, radiational heating and inferred cloud structures were also computed.

Characterizing the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) Using Satellite Observations, Balloon Measurements and a Chemical Transport Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fairlie, T. D.; Vernier, J.-P.; Liu, H.; Deshler, T.; Natarajan, M.; Bedka, K.; Wegner, T.; Baker, N.; Gadhavi, H.; Ratnam, M. V.;

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

Science.gov (United States)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Effects of convective ice evaporation on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Hao; Dessler, Andrew E.; Yu, Wandi

2018-04-01

Water vapor interannual variability in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is investigated using satellite observations and model simulations. We break down the influences of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the tropospheric temperature (ΔT) on TTL water vapor as a function of latitude and longitude using a two-dimensional multivariate linear regression. This allows us to examine the spatial distribution of the impact of each process on TTL water vapor. In agreement with expectations, we find that the impacts from the BDC and QBO act on TTL water vapor by changing TTL temperature. For ΔT, we find that TTL temperatures alone cannot explain the influence. We hypothesize a moistening role for the evaporation of convective ice from increased deep convection as the troposphere warms. Tests using a chemistry-climate model, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM), support this hypothesis.

Sensitivity study of surface wind flow of a limited area model simulating the extratropical storm Delta affecting the Canary Islands

OpenAIRE

Marrero, C.; Jorba, O.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-01-01

In November 2005 an extratropical storm named Delta affected the Canary Islands (Spain). The high sustained wind and intense gusts experienced caused significant damage. A numerical sensitivity study of Delta was conducted using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW). A total of 27 simulations were performed. Non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic experiments were designed taking into account physical parameterizations and geometrical factors (size and position of the outer domain, d...

High altitude flights in equatorial regions

Science.gov (United States)

Redkar, R. T.

A thorough analysis of balloon flights made from Hyderabad, India (Latitude 17°28'N, Longitude 78°35'E), and other equatorial sites has been made. It has been shown that limited success is expected for flights made from equatorial latitudes with balloons made out of natural colour polyethylene film, since the best known balloon film in the world today viz. Winzen Stratofilm is tested for low temperature brittleness only at -80°C., whereas the tropopause temperatures over equatorial latitudes vary between -80°C and -90°C. The success becomes even more critical when flights are made with heavy payloads and larger balloons particularly at night when in the absence of solar radiation the balloon film becomes more susceptible to low temperature brittle failure. It is recommended that in case of capped balloons longer caps should be used to fully cover the inflated protion of the balloon at the higher level equatorial tropopause. It is also advised that the conditions such as wind shears in the tropopause should be critically studied before launching and a day with the tropopause temperature nearer to -80°C should be chosen. Special care also should be taken while handling the balloon on ground and during launching phase. Properties of Winzen Stratofilm have been critically studied and fresh mandates have been recommended on the basis of limiting values of film stresses which caused balloon failures in the equatorial tropopause. It is also emphasized that the data on such flights is still meagre especially for flights with heavy payloads and larger balloons. It has been also shown that it is safest to use balloons made out of grey coloured film which retains its flexibility with the absorption of solar radiation, the success obtained with such balloons so far being 100%. The drawback, however, is that these balloons cannot be used for night flights. Stratospheric wind regimes over Hyderabad are also discussed with a view to determine the period over which long

The Observed Relationship Between Water Vapor and Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Saturation Layer and the Influence of Meridional Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Selkirk, Henry B.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Olsen, M. A.; Douglass, A. R.

2011-01-01

We examine balloonsonde observations of water vapor and ozone from three Ticosonde campaigns over San Jose, Costa Rica [10 N, 84 W] during northern summer and a fourth during northern winter. The data from the summer campaigns show that the uppermost portion of the tropical tropopause layer between 360 and 380 K, which we term the tropopause saturation layer or TSL, is characterized by water vapor mixing ratios from proximately 3 to 15 ppmv and ozone from approximately 50 ppbv to 250 ppbv. In contrast, the atmospheric water vapor tape recorder at 380 K and above displays a more restricted 4-7 ppmv range in water vapor mixing ratio. From this perspective, most of the parcels in the TSL fall into two classes - those that need only additional radiative heating to rise into the tape recorder and those requiring some combination of additional dehydration and mixing with drier air. A substantial fraction of the latter class have ozone mixing ratios greater than 150 ppbv, and with water vapor greater than 7 ppmv this air may well have been transported into the tropics from the middle latitudes in conjunction with high-amplitude equatorial waves. We examine this possibility with both trajectory analysis and transport diagnostics based on HIRDLS ozone data. We apply the same approach to study the winter season. Here a very different regime obtains as the ozone-water vapor scatter diagram of the sonde data shows the stratosphere and troposphere to be clearly demarcated with little evidence of mixing in of middle latitude air parcels.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars

Climatology and Impact of Convection on the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin; Pittman, Jasna

2007-01-01

Water vapor plays an important role in controlling the radiative balance and the chemical composition of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). Mechanisms ranging from slow transport and dehydration under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions to fast transport in convection have been proposed as regulators of the amount of water vapor in this layer. However,.details of these mechanisms and their relative importance remain poorly understood, The recently completed Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) campaign had the opportunity to sample the.TTL over the Eastern Tropical Pacific using ground-based, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. The main goal of this study is to provide the climatological context for this campaign of deep and overshooting convective activity using various satellite observations collected during the summertime. We use the Microwave Humidity Sensor (MRS) aboard the NOAA-18 satellite to investigate the horizontal extent.and the frequency of convection reaching and penetrating into the TTL. We use the Moderate Resolution I1l1aging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite to investigate the frequency distribution of daytime cirrus clouds. We use the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) and CloudSat to investigate the vertical structure and distribution of hydrometeors in the convective cells, In addition to cloud measurements; we investigate the impact that convection has on the concentration of radiatively important gases such as water vapor and ozone in the TTL by examining satellite measurement obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS) aboard the Aura satellite.

Stratospheric ozone intrusion events and their impacts on tropospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere

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J. W. Greenslade

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT provides an important natural source of ozone to the upper troposphere, but the characteristics of STT events in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and their contribution to the regional tropospheric ozone budget remain poorly constrained. Here, we develop a quantitative method to identify STT events from ozonesonde profiles. Using this method we estimate the seasonality of STT events and quantify the ozone transported across the tropopause over Davis (69° S, 2006–2013, Macquarie Island (54° S, 2004–2013, and Melbourne (38° S, 2004–2013. STT seasonality is determined by two distinct methods: a Fourier bandpass filter of the vertical ozone profile and an analysis of the Brunt–Väisälä frequency. Using a bandpass filter on 7–9 years of ozone profiles from each site provides clear detection of STT events, with maximum occurrences during summer and minimum during winter for all three sites. The majority of tropospheric ozone enhancements owing to STT events occur within 2.5 and 3 km of the tropopause at Davis and Macquarie Island respectively. Events are more spread out at Melbourne, occurring frequently up to 6 km from the tropopause. The mean fraction of total tropospheric ozone attributed to STT during STT events is  ∼ 1. 0–3. 5 % at each site; however, during individual events, over 10 % of tropospheric ozone may be directly transported from the stratosphere. The cause of STTs is determined to be largely due to synoptic low-pressure frontal systems, determined using coincident ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological data. Ozone enhancements can also be caused by biomass burning plumes transported from Africa and South America, which are apparent during austral winter and spring and are determined using satellite measurements of CO. To provide regional context for the ozonesonde observations, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, which is too coarsely

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a summertime extratropical low: analysis

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J. Brioude

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Ozone and carbon monoxide measurements sampled during two commercial flights in airstreams of a summertime midlatitude cyclone are analysed with a Lagrangian-based study (backward trajectories and a Reverse Domain Filling technique to gain a comprehensive understanding of transport effects on trace gas distributions. The study demonstrates that summertime cyclones can be associated with deep stratosphere-troposphere transport. A tropopause fold is sampled twice in its life cycle, once in the lower troposphere (O3≃100 ppbv; CO≃90 ppbv in the dry airstream of the cyclone, and again in the upper troposphere (O3≃200 ppbv; CO≃90 ppbv on the northern side of the large scale potential vorticity feature associated with baroclinic development. In agreement with the maritime development of the cyclone, the chemical composition of the anticyclonic portion of the warm conveyor belt outflow (O3≃40 ppbv; CO≃85 ppbv corresponds to the lowest mixing ratios of both ozone and carbon monoxide in the upper tropospheric airborne observations. The uncertain degree of confidence of the Lagrangian-based technique applied to a 100 km segment of upper level airborne observations with high ozone (200 ppbv and relatively low CO (80 ppbv observed northwest of the cyclone prevents identification of the ozone enrichment process of air parcels embedded in the cyclonic part of the upper level outflow of the warm conveyor belt. Different hypotheses of stratosphere-troposphere exchange are discussed.

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some

Ice nucleation and cloud microphysical properties in tropical tropopause layer cirrus

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E. J. Jensen

2010-02-01

Full Text Available In past modeling studies, it has generally been assumed that the predominant mechanism for nucleation of ice in the uppermost troposphere is homogeneous freezing of aqueous aerosols. However, recent in situ and remote-sensing measurements of the properties of cirrus clouds at very low temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL are broadly inconsistent with theoretial predictions based on the homogeneous freezing assumption. The nearly ubiquitous occurence of gravity waves in the TTL makes the predictions from homogeneous nucleation theory particularly difficult to reconcile with measurements. These measured properties include ice number concentrations, which are much lower than theory predicts; ice crystal size distributions, which are much broader than theory predicts; and cloud extinctions, which are much lower than theory predicts. Although other explanations are possible, one way to limit ice concentrations is to have on the order of 50 L⁻¹ effective ice nuclei (IN that could nucleate ice at relatively low supersaturations. We suggest that ammonium sulfate particles, which would be dry much of the time in the cold TTL, are a potential IN candidate for TTL cirrus. However, this mechanism remains to be fully quantified for the size distribution of ammonium sulfate (possibly internally mixed with organics actually present in the upper troposphere. Possible implications of the observed cloud microphysical properties for ice sedimentation, dehydration, and cloud persistence are also discussed.

Influence of isentropic transport on seasonal ozone variations in the lower stratosphere and subtropical upper troposphere

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, P.; Cunnold, D. M.; Yang, E.-S.; Wang, H.-J.

2005-01-01

The isentropic cross-tropopause ozone transport has been estimated in both hemispheres in 1999 based on the potential vorticity mapping of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 11 ozone measurements and contour advection calculations using the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Global and Modeling Assimilation Office analysis. The estimated net isentropic stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux is approx.118 +/- 61 x 10(exp9)kg/yr globally within the layer between 330 and 370 K in 1999; 60% of it is found in the Northern Hemisphere, and 40% is found in the Southern Hemisphere. The monthly average ozone fluxes are strongest in summer and weakest in winter in both hemispheres. The seasonal variations of ozone in the lower stratosphere (LS) and upper troposphere (UT) have been analyzed using ozonesonde observations from ozonesonde stations in the extratropics and subtropics, respectively. It is shown that observed ozone levels increase in the UT over subtropical ozonesonde stations and decrease in the LS over extratropical stations in late spring/early summer and that the ozone increases in the summertime subtropical UT are unlikely to be explained by photochemical ozone production and diabatic transport alone. We conclude that isentropic transport is a significant contributor to ozone levels in the subtropical upper troposphere, especially in summer.

Dynamics of Massive Atmospheres

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chemke, Rei; Kaspi, Yohai, E-mail: rei.chemke@weizmann.ac.il [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, 234 Herzl st., 76100, Rehovot (Israel)

2017-08-10

The many recently discovered terrestrial exoplanets are expected to hold a wide range of atmospheric masses. Here the dynamic-thermodynamic effects of atmospheric mass on atmospheric circulation are studied using an idealized global circulation model by systematically varying the atmospheric surface pressure. On an Earth analog planet, an increase in atmospheric mass weakens the Hadley circulation and decreases its latitudinal extent. These changes are found to be related to the reduction of the convective fluxes and net radiative cooling (due to the higher atmospheric heat capacity), which, respectively, cool the upper troposphere at mid-low latitudes and warm the troposphere at high latitudes. These together decrease the meridional temperature gradient, tropopause height and static stability. The reduction of these parameters, which play a key role in affecting the flow properties of the tropical circulation, weakens and contracts the Hadley circulation. The reduction of the meridional temperature gradient also decreases the extraction of mean potential energy to the eddy fields and the mean kinetic energy, which weakens the extratropical circulation. The decrease of the eddy kinetic energy decreases the Rhines wavelength, which is found to follow the meridional jet scale. The contraction of the jet scale in the extratropics results in multiple jets and meridional circulation cells as the atmospheric mass increases.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Forcing. Report 3. Intermediate Submission No. 1.3

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-01

The storm surge study considers both tropical storms and extratropical cyclones for determination of return period storm surge elevations. The...Appendix B: Extratropical Cyclone Selection in Support of FEMA Region III Storm Surge Modeling...stations applied in the storm selection process. ............................................. 56  Table B2. Extratropical cyclones selected from the

The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 1: Wilcox effect revisited

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M. Rybanský

2009-01-01

mean VAI response to SBP associated with the north-to-south reversal of BZ is leading by up to 2 days the mean VAI response to SBP associated with the south-to-north reversal of BZ. For the latter, less geoeffective events, the VAI minimum deepens (with the above exception of the Northern Hemisphere low-aerosol 500-mb VAI and the VAI maximum is delayed. The phase shift between the mean VAI responses obtained for these two subsets of SBP events may explain the reduced amplitude of the overall Wilcox effect. In a companion paper, Prikryl et al. (2009 propose a new mechanism to explain the Wilcox effect, namely that solar-wind-generated auroral atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs influence the growth of extratropical cyclones. It is also observed that severe extratropical storms, explosive cyclogenesis and significant sea level pressure deepenings of extratropical storms tend to occur within a few days of the arrival of high-speed solar wind. These observations are discussed in the context of the proposed AGW mechanism as well as the previously suggested atmospheric electrical current (AEC model (Tinsley et al., 1994, which requires the presence of stratospheric aerosols for a significant (Wilcox effect.

Cold trap dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer characterised by SOWER chilled-mirror hygrometer network data in the Tropical Pacific

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F. Hasebe

2013-04-01

Full Text Available A network of balloon-borne radiosonde observations employing chilled-mirror hygrometers for water and electrochemical concentration cells for ozone has been operated since the late 1990s in the Tropical Pacific to capture the evolution of dehydration of air parcels advected quasi-horizontally in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL. The analysis of this dataset is made on isentropes taking advantage of the conservative properties of tracers moving adiabatically. The existence of ice particles is diagnosed by lidars simultaneously operated with sonde flights. Characteristics of the TTL dehydration are presented on the basis of individual soundings and statistical features. Supersaturations close to 80% in relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice have been observed in subvisible cirrus clouds located near the cold point tropopause at extremely low temperatures around 180 K. Although further observational evidence is needed to confirm the credibility of such high values of RHice, the evolution of TTL dehydration is evident from the data in isentropic scatter plots between the sonde-observed mixing ratio (OMR and the minimum saturation mixing ratio (SMRmin along the back trajectories associated with the observed air mass. Supersaturation exceeding the critical value of homogeneous ice nucleation (OMR > 1.6 × SMRmin is frequently observed on the 360 and 365 K surfaces indicating that cold trap dehydration is in progress in the TTL. The near correspondence between the two (OMR ~ SMRmin at 380 K on the other hand implies that this surface is not sufficiently cold for the advected air parcels to be dehydrated. Above 380 K, cold trap dehydration would scarcely function while some moistening occurs before the air parcels reach the lowermost stratosphere at around 400 K where OMR is generally smaller than SMRmin.

Improvement of OMI Ozone Profile Retrievals in the Troposphere and Lower Troposphere by the Use of the Tropopause-Based Ozone Profile Climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Bak, Juseon; Liu, X.; Wei, J.; Kim, J. H.; Chance, K.; Barnet, C.

2011-01-01

An advance algorithm based on the optimal estimation technique has beeen developed to derive ozone profile from GOME UV radiances and have adapted it to OMI UV radiances. OMI vertical resolution : 7-11 km in the troposphere and 10-14 km in the stratosphere. Satellite ultraviolet measurements (GOME, OMI) contain little vertical information for the small scale of ozone, especially in the upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) where the sharp O3 gradient across the tropopause and large ozone variability are observed. Therefore, retrievals depend greatly on the a-priori knowledge in the UTLS

Impact of inter-seasonal solar variability on the association of lower troposphere and cold point tropopause in the tropics: Observations using RO data from COSMIC

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Ho, Shu-Peng; Singh, Narendra; Singh, Vir; Reddy, K. K.; Chun, H.-Y.

2017-12-01

Association of lower tropospheric variations with the cold point tropopause (CPT) is examined on inter-seasonal basis over the tropical region (30°N-30°S) during 2007-2010 using COSMIC/FORMOST-3 Radio Occultation (RO) data. Temperature analyses for this association are shown over different regions of the globe having contrast topography namely over Western Pacific sector, Indian sector, and African sector. Correlation coefficient (r), taken as a measurement of association, show specific longitudinal differences between the lower troposphere (from 1 km to 5 km height) and the CPT. The northern and southern hemispheres show contrast coupling of temperature variation between lower tropospheric region and the CPT. Land and ocean effects are found to contribute in a different way to the correlation coefficient. Analyses show symmetrical structure of 'r' on both sides of the equator over the African region, as data include mostly land region on both side of equator. Data represent positive correlation (r 0.5) over 15°-20° latitudes on either side of the equator over the African region, suggesting strong hold of the inter-seasonal variation of solar diabatic heating influence over the tropic of Cancer and tropic of Capricorn. On the other hand, there is a contrast behaviour over the Indian region, 'r' is nearly negative ( - 1.0) each year in the southern hemisphere (SH) and positive ( 0.4) in the northern hemisphere (NH) with a maxima near tropic of Cancer. Western Pacific region is found to display a linear increase in 'r' from negative ( - 1.0) in SH to positive ( 0.8) in NH. In general, 'r' (positive) maximizes over the land region around 15°-20° latitudes, suggesting a control of in phase inter-seasonal solar heating on the coupling of boundary layer/lower troposphere and CPT region, whereas it turns negative over water body. Analyses suggest that variabilities in CPT over different regions of globe show significant inter-seasonal association with the lower

On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in a general circulation model and observational data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

May, W.; Bengtsson, L.

1994-01-01

There are various phenomena on different spatial and temporal scales contributing to the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics. One may notice higher-frequency baroclinic disturbances affecting the day-to-day variability of the atmosphere. But one finds also low-frequency fluctuations on a typical time scale of a few weeks. Blocking anticyclones are probably the most prominent example of such features. These fluctuations on different scales, however, are influencing each other, in particular the temporal evolution and spatial distribution. There has been observational work on various phenomena contributing to the intra-seasonal variability for a long time. In the last decade or so, however, with the increasing importance of General Circulation Models there have been some studies dealing with the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by these models

An Exploration of Mechanisms for Mediating the Influence of Extratropical Glaciation on the Tropical Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Frierson, D. M.

2006-05-01

To obtain a better understanding of the basic mechanisms by which the atmosphere transmits extratropical influences into the tropics, we have analyzed a series of general circulation model experiments carried out with idealized continental boundary conditions. These experiments were carried out with the FOAM1.5 model, which is in essence a portable Beowulf-oriented reimplementation of CCM3. In accord with our focus on the atmosphere in this work, the atmospheric model is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean with lateral ocean heat flux set to zero. The continental geometry consists of a pair of zonally symmetric continents, one centered on each pole. The Southern Hemisphere continent extends to 65S, and is kept glaciated in all experiments. The Northern Hemisphere continent extends to 42N, and is glaciated in the NHCOLD experiment but bare land in the NHWARM experiment. Sea ice feedback was suppressed in these simulations, but given the geometry of the Northern Hemisphere continent, the NHCOLD case can be taken as representing the combined forcing due to land glaciation and equatorward advance of sea ice. These experiments allow us to examine, in a very clean way, the response of the tropics to a very large extratropical cooling imposed at the surface, in a model which is energetically closed. Comparison of the two simulations has yielded the following results. The principal means by which the midlatitude glaciation affects the tropics is via a marked increase in poleward NH wintertime sensible heat flux, which is uncompensated by reduction in latent heat flux. The coupling of the storm tracks to the tropics is weak, however, and causes only a moderate cooling in the Northern subtropics and hardly any south of the Equator. The dynamics behind this barrier effect are discussed. The increased sensible heat flux,however, causes a considerable strengthening of the Hadley circulation; this strengthening allows the ITCZ precipitation to remain approximately unchanged between

Nature, Origin, Potential Composition, and Climate Impact of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL)

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Fairlie, T. D.; Vernier, J.-P.; Thomason, L. W.; Natarajan, M.; Bedka, K.; Wienhold, F.; Bian J.; Martinsson, B.

2015-01-01

Satellite observations from SAGE II and CALIPSO indicate that summertime aerosol extinction has more than doubled in the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) since the late 1990s. Here we show remote and in-situ observations, together with results from a chemical transport model (CTM), to explore the likely composition, origin, and radiative forcing of the ATAL. We show in-situ balloon measurements of aerosol backscatter, which support the high levels observed by CALIPSO since 2006. We also show in situ measurements from aircraft, which indicate a predominant carbonaceous contribution to the ATAL (Carbon/Sulfur ratios of 2- 10), which is supported by the CTM results. We show that the peak in ATAL aerosol lags by 1 month the peak in CO from MLS, associated with deep convection over Asia during the summer monsoon. This suggests that secondary formation and growth of aerosols in the upper troposphere on monthly timescales make a significant contribution to ATAL. Back trajectory calculations initialized from CALIPSO observations provide evidence that deep convection over India is a significant source for ATAL through the vertical transport of pollution to the upper troposphere.

An Analysis of the Energetics of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Regions for Warm ENSO Composite Episodes

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Zayra Christine Sátyro

Full Text Available Abstract This study focuses on the quantification and evaluation of the effects of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation warm phases, using a composite of five intense El Niño episodes between 1979 – 2011 on the Energetic Lorenz Cycle for four distinct regions around the globe: 80° S – 5° N (region 1, 50° S – 5° N (region 2, 30° S – 5° N (region 3, and 30° S – 30° N (region 4, using Data from NCEP reanalysis-II. Briefly, the results showed that zonal terms of potential energy and kinetic energy were intensified, except for region 1, where zonal kinetic energy weakened. Through the analysis of the period in which higher energy production is observed, a strong communication between the available zonal potential and the zonal kinetic energy reservoirs can be identified. This communication weakened the modes linked to eddies of potential energy and kinetic energy, as well as in the other two baroclinic conversions terms. Furthermore, the results indicate that for all the regions, the system itself works to regain its stable condition.

CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds(C3Winds) A New Wind Observing System to Study Mesoscale Cloud Dynamics and Processes

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Wu, D. L.; Kelly, M.A.; Yee, J.-H.; Boldt, J.; Demajistre, R.; Reynolds, E. L.; Tripoli, G. J.; Oman, L. D.; Prive, N.; Heidinger, A. K.;

Extratropical Weather Systems on Mars: Radiatively-Active Water Ice Effects

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Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

2017-01-01

Extratropical, large-scale weather disturbances, namely transient, synoptic-period,baroclinic barotropic eddies - or - low- (high-) pressure cyclones (anticyclones), are components fundamental to global circulation patterns for rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmospheres such as Earth and Mars. Such "wave-like" disturbances that arise via (geophysical) fluid shear instability develop, mature and decay, and travel west-to-east in the middle and high latitudes within terrestrial-like planetary atmospheres. These disturbances serve as critical agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Moreover, they transport trace species within the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor/ice, other aerosols (dust), chemical species, etc). Between early autumn through early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equator-to-pole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems [Banfield et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 1993]. A good example of traveling weather systems, frontal wave activity and sequestered dust activity from MGS/MOC image analyses is provided in Figure 1 (cf. Wang et al. [2005]). Utilizing an upgraded and evolving version of the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Mars global climate model, investigated here are key dynamical and physical aspects of simulated northern hemisphere (NH) large-scale extratropica lweather systems,with and without radiatively-active water ice clouds. Mars Climate Model:

Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-30

statistically extratropical storms and extremes, and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang...forecast models, as well as in the understanding they have generated. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim and Shuguang Wang. Extratropical variability and...predictability. Determine the extent to which extratropical monthly and seasonal low-frequency variability (LFV, i.e. PNA, NAO, as well as other regional

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones and relationship with NAO and jet intensity based on the IMILAST cyclone database

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Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Economou, Theodoros; Stephenson, David B.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Shaffrey, Len C.

2017-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area, particularly during wintertime. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, such series (clusters) of storms may cause large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. Based on winter (DJF) cyclone counts from the IMILAST cyclone database, we explore the representation of serial clustering in the ERA-Interim period and its relationship with the NAO-phase and jet intensity. With this aim, clustering is estimated by the dispersion of winter (DJF) cyclone passages for each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods, although the exact location and the dispersion magnitude may vary. The relationship between clustering and (i) the NAO-phase and (ii) jet intensity over the North Atlantic is statistically evaluated. Results show that the NAO-index and the jet intensity show a strong contribution to clustering, even though some spread is found between methods. We conclude that the general features of clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO and jet intensity on cyclone dispersion.

Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983-2008: observational support for a poleward shift

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Bender, Frida A.M.; Ramanathan, V. [University of California, Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Tselioudis, George [Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

2012-05-15

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Science.gov (United States)

Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

2012-01-01

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied

High resolution modelling results of the wind flow over Canary Islands during the meteorological situation of the extratropical storm Delta (28–30 November 2005

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J. M. Baldasano

2008-05-01

Full Text Available On 28–29 November 2005 an extratropical storm affected the Canary Islands causing significant damage related to high average wind speeds and intense gusts over some islands of the archipelago. Delta was the twenty-sixth tropical or subtropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It represents an unusual meteorological phenomenon for that region, and its impacts were underestimated by the different operational meteorological forecasts during the previous days of the arrival of the low near Canary Islands. The aim of this study is to reproduce the local effects of the flow that were observed over the Canary Islands during the travel of the Delta storm near the region using high-resolution mesoscale meteorological simulations. The Advanced Research Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW is applied at 9, 3 and 1 km horizontal resolution using ECMWF forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. The high-resolution simulation will outline the main features that contributed to the high wind speeds observed in the archipelago. Variations in vertical static stability, vertical windshear and the intense synoptic winds of the southwestern part of Delta with a warm core at 850 hPa were the main characteristics that contributed to the development and amplification of intense gravity waves while the large-scale flow interacted with the complex topography of the islands.

Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

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Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

Improved SAGE II cloud/aerosol categorization and observations of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer: 1989–2005

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L. W. Thomason

2013-05-01

Full Text Available We describe the challenges associated with the interpretation of extinction coefficient measurements by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II in the presence of clouds. In particular, we have found that tropospheric aerosol analyses are highly dependent on a robust method for identifying when clouds affect the measured extinction coefficient. Herein, we describe an improved cloud identification method that appears to capture cloud/aerosol events more effectively than early methods. In addition, we summarize additional challenges to observing the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL using SAGE II observations. Using this new approach, we perform analyses of the upper troposphere, focusing on periods in which the UTLS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere is relatively free of volcanic material (1989–1990 and after 1996. Of particular interest is the Asian monsoon anticyclone where CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar Pathfinder Satellite Observations has observed an aerosol enhancement. This enhancement, called the ATAL, has a similar morphology to observed enhancements in long-lived trace gas species like CO. Since the CALIPSO record begins in 2006, the question of how long this aerosol feature has been present requires a new look at the long-lived SAGE II data sets despite significant hurdles to its use in the subtropical upper troposphere. We find that there is no evidence of ATAL in the SAGE II data prior to 1998. After 1998, it is clear that aerosol in the upper troposphere in the ATAL region is substantially enhanced relative to the period before that time. In addition, the data generally supports the presence of the ATAL beginning in 1999 and continuing through the end of the mission, though some years (e.g., 2003 are complicated by the presence of episodic enhancements most likely of volcanic origin.

Characteristics of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

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Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.; Janoski, T. P.

2017-12-01

In the northeastern United States, many of the strongest impacts from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are associated with storms that exhibit slow movement, unusual tracks, or exceptional intensity. Examples of extreme ETCs include the Appalachian storm of November 1950, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the Superstorm of March 1993. Owing to the rare nature of these events, it is difficult to quantify the associated risks (e.g. high winds, storm surge) given the limited duration of high-quality observational datasets. Furthermore, storms with even greater impacts than those observed may be possible, particularly in a warming climate. In the context of tropical cyclones, Lin and Emanuel (2016) have used the metaphor "grey swans" to refer to high-impact events that have not been observed but may be physically possible. One method for analyzing "grey swans" is to generate a larger sample of ETCs using a coupled climate model. Therefore, we use long simulations (over 1,000 years with atmospheric constituents fixed at 1990 levels) from a global climate model (GFDL FLOR) with 50km atmospheric resolution. FLOR has been shown to realistically simulate the spatial distribution and climatology of ETCs during the reanalysis era. We will discuss the climatological features of these extreme ETC events.

Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) Ozone Climatology (2005-2009): Tropospheric and Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) Profiles with Comparisons to Omi-based Ozone Products

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Thompson, Anne M.; Miller, Sonya K.; Tilmes, Simone; Kollonige, Debra W.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Oltmans, Samuel J.; Johnson, Brian J.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Schmidlin, F. J.; Coetzee, G. J. R.;

Peak season plant activity shift towards spring is reflected by increasing carbon uptake by extratropical ecosystems.

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Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Ooi, Ying W

2018-05-01

Climate change is lengthening the growing season of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, but little is known regarding the timing and dynamics of the peak season of plant activity. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations and atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C isotope measurements at Point Barrow (Alaska, USA, 71°N) to study the dynamics of the peak of season (POS) of plant activity. Averaged across extratropical (>23°N) non-evergreen-dominated pixels, NDVI data show that the POS has advanced by 1.2 ± 0.6 days per decade in response to the spring-ward shifts of the start (1.0 ± 0.8 days per decade) and end (1.5 ± 1.0 days per decade) of peak activity, and the earlier onset of the start of growing season (1.4 ± 0.8 days per decade), while POS maximum NDVI value increased by 7.8 ± 1.8% for 1982-2015. Similarly, the peak day of carbon uptake, based on calculations from atmospheric CO 2 concentration and δ 13 C data, is advancing by 2.5 ± 2.6 and 4.3 ± 2.9 days per decade, respectively. POS maximum NDVI value shows strong negative relationships (p POS days. Given that the maximum solar irradiance and day length occur before the average POS day, the earlier occurrence of peak plant activity results in increased plant productivity. Both the advancing POS day and increasing POS vegetation greenness are consistent with the shifting peak productivity towards spring and the increasing annual maximum values of gross and net ecosystem productivity simulated by coupled Earth system models. Our results further indicate that the decline in autumn NDVI is contributing the most to the overall browning of the northern high latitudes (>50°N) since 2011. The spring-ward shift of peak season plant activity is expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. © 2017

An Aircraft-Based Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere O3, CO, and H2O Climatology for the Northern Hemisphere

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Tilmes, S.; Pan, L. L.; Hoor, P.; Atlas, E.; Avery, M. A.; Campos, T.; Christensen, L. E.; Diskin, G. S.; Gao, R.-S.; Herman, R. L.;

A New Model Hierarchy to Understand the Impact of Radiation and Convection on the Extratropical Circulation Response to Climate Change

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Tan, Z.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to warming. Interestingly, some idealized gray radiation models with simplified convective schemes produce an equatorward jet shift in response to warming. In order to understand the impact of radiation and convection on the circulation response and resolve the discrepancies across the model hierarchy, we introduce a new model radiation-convection hierarchy. The hierarchy spans idealized (gray) through sophisticated (RRTMG) radiation, and idealized (Betts-Miller) through sophisticated (eddy-diffusivity mass-flux scheme) convection schemes in the same general circulation model. It is used to systematically explore the impact of radiation and convection on the extratropical circulation response to climate change independent of mean surface temperature and meridional temperature gradient responses. With a gray radiation scheme, the jet stream shift depends on the prescribed stratospheric optical depth, which controls the climatological jet regime. A large optical depth leads to a split jet and an equatorward shift. A small optical depth leads to a poleward shift. The different shifts are connected to the vertical extent of tropical long wave cooling that impacts the subtropical jet and Hadley circulation. In spite of these sensitivities, the storm track position, defined by the meridonal eddy heat flux and moist static energy flux maxima, shifts robustly poleward. In contrast to gray radiation, with a comprehensive radiation scheme, the jet and storm track shift robustly poleward irrespective of radiative assumptions (clear sky versus cloudy sky, ozone versus no ozone). This response is reproduced by adding more spectral bands and including the water vapor feedback in the gray scheme. Dynamical sensitivities to convective assumption are also explored. Overall the new hierarchy highlights the importance of radiative and

A Modelling Study of the Impact of On-Road Diesel Emissions on Arctic Black Carbon and Solar Radiation Transfer

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Giovanni Pitari

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Market strategies have greatly incentivized the use of diesel engines for land transportation. These engines are responsible for a large fraction of black carbon (BC emissions in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, with significant effects on both air quality and global climate. In addition to direct radiative forcing, planetary-scale transport of BC to the Arctic region may significantly impact the surface albedo of this region through wet and dry deposition on ice and snow. A sensitivity study is made with the University of L’Aquila climate-chemistry-aerosol model by eliminating on-road diesel emissions of BC (which represent approximately 50% of BC emissions from land transportation. According to the model and using emission scenarios for the year 2000, this would imply an average change in tropopause direct radiative forcing (RF of −0.054 W∙m−2 (globally and −0.074 W∙m−2 over the Arctic region, with a peak of −0.22 W∙m−2 during Arctic springtime months. These RF values increase to −0.064, −0.16 and −0.50 W∙m−2, respectively, when also taking into account the BC snow-albedo forcing. The calculated BC optical thickness decrease (at λ = 0.55 µm is 0.48 × 10−3 (globally and 0.74 × 10−3 over the Arctic (i.e., 10.5% and 16.5%, respectively, with a peak of 1.3 × 10−3 during the Arctic springtime.

A multispectral study of an extratropical cyclone with Nimbus 3 medium resolution infrared radiometer data

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Holub, R.; Shenk, W. E.

1973-01-01

Four registered channels (0.2 to 4, 6.5 to 7, 10 to 11, and 20 to 23 microns) of the Nimbus 3 Medium Resolution Infrared Radiometer (MRIR) were used to study 24-hr changes in the structure of an extratropical cyclone during a 6-day period in May 1969. Use of a stereographic-horizon map projection insured that the storm was mapped with a single perspective throughout the series and allowed the convenient preparation of 24-hr difference maps of the infrared radiation fields. Single-channel and multispectral analysis techniques were employed to establish the positions and vertical slopes of jetstreams, large cloud systems, and major features of middle and upper tropospheric circulation. Use of these techniques plus the difference maps and continuity of observation allowed the early detection of secondary cyclones developing within the circulation of the primary cyclone. An automated, multispectral cloud-type identification technique was developed, and comparisons that were made with conventional ship reports and with high-resolution visual data from the image dissector camera system showed good agreement.

Sulfur deposition changes under sulfate geoengineering conditions: quasi-biennial oscillation effects on the transport and lifetime of stratospheric aerosols

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Visioni, Daniele; Pitari, Giovanni; Tuccella, Paolo; Curci, Gabriele

2018-02-01

Sustained injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the tropical lower stratosphere has been proposed as a climate engineering technique for the coming decades. Among several possible environmental side effects, the increase in sulfur deposition deserves additional investigation. In this study we present results from a composition-climate coupled model (University of L'Aquila Composition-Chemistry Model, ULAQ-CCM) and a chemistry-transport model (Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Transport Model, GEOS-Chem), assuming a sustained lower-stratospheric equatorial injection of 8 Tg SO2 yr-1. Total S deposition is found to globally increase by 5.2 % when sulfate geoengineering is deployed, with a clear interhemispheric asymmetry (+3.8 and +10.3 % in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), due to +2.2 and +1.8 Tg S yr-1, respectively). The two models show good consistency, both globally and on a regional scale under background and geoengineering conditions, except for S-deposition changes over Africa and the Arctic. The consistency exists with regard to time-averaged values but also with regard to monthly and interannual deposition changes. The latter is driven essentially by the variability in stratospheric large-scale transport associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using an externally nudged QBO, it is shown how a zonal wind E shear favors aerosol confinement in the tropical pipe and a significant increase in their effective radius (+13 % with respect to W shear conditions). The net result is an increase in the downward cross-tropopause S flux over the tropics with dominant E shear conditions with respect to W shear periods (+0.61 Tg S yr-1, +42 %, mostly due to enhanced aerosol gravitational settling) and a decrease over the extratropics (-0.86 Tg S yr-1, -35 %, mostly due to decreased large-scale stratosphere-troposphere exchange of geoengineering sulfate). This translates into S-deposition changes that are significantly

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

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Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

Observations of ice nuclei and heterogeneous freezing in a Western Pacific extratropical storm

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J. L. Stith

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In situ airborne sampling of refractory black carbon (rBC particles and Ice Nuclei (IN was conducted in and near an extratropical cyclonic storm in the western Pacific Ocean during the Pacific Dust Experiment, PACDEX, in the spring of 2007. Airmass origins were from Eastern Asia. Clouds associated primarily with the warm sector of the storm were sampled at various locations and altitudes. Cloud hydrometeors were evaporated by a counterflow virtual impactor (CVI and the residuals were sampled by a single particle soot photometer (SP2 instrument, a continuous flow diffusion chamber ice nucleus detector (CFDC and collected for electron microscope analysis. In clouds containing large ice particles, multiple residual particles were observed downstream of the CVI for each ice particle sampled on average. The fraction of rBC compared to total particles in the residual particles increased with decreasing condensed water content, while the fraction of IN compared to total particles did not, suggesting that the scavenging process for rBC is different than for IN. In the warm sector storm midlevels at temperatures where heterogeneous freezing is expected to be significant (here −24 to −29 °C, IN concentrations from ice particle residuals generally agreed with simultaneous measurements of total ice concentrations or were higher in regions where aggregates of crystals were found, suggesting heterogeneous freezing as the dominant ice formation process in the mid levels of these warm sector clouds. Lower in the storm, at warmer temperatures, ice concentrations were affected by aggregation and were somewhat less than measured IN concentrations at colder temperatures. The results are consistent with ice particles forming at storm mid-levels by heterogeneous freezing on IN, followed by aggregation and sedimentation to lower altitudes. Compositional analysis of the aerosol and back trajectories of the air in the warm sector suggested a possible biomass

Seasonality of 7Be concentrations in Europe and influence of tropopause height

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Miguel Angel Hernández-Ceballos

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims at analysing the latitudinal variability of both the yearly and seasonal pattern of 7Be surface activity concentrations, at addressing the impact of tropopause height (TPH on 7Be distribution and at evaluating the time lag between TPH and 7Be at European level. With this aim, weekly 7Be and daily TPH data at 17 sampling stations during 10 yr (2001–2010 are analysed. 7Be shows a clear increasing tendency in the period and generally tends to increase with decreasing latitude. The seasonal pattern generally shows maxima during the warm period and minima during the cold one. The seasonal variogram analysis points out a good spatial correlation for TPH data while a weaker one is observed for 7Be, having TPH a larger influence on 7Be during summer. The influence of TPH on 7Be exhibits a large spatial variability, with a clear gap between south and north in the area of the polar front jet. The results identify the presence of two main groups, in particular separating between stations located in northern Europe (50 °N and higher and stations in southern Europe (south of 50 °N. A similar behaviour for stations located in the same geographical area is also observed when looking at the day of maximum impact of TPH on 7Be concentrations. The results suggest that 7Be concentrations respond in different time ranges to changes in the TPH, observing seasonal differences in each group. These results represent the first European approach to the understanding of the TPH impact on 7Be concentrations at surface levels.

Photochemistry and aerosol in alpine region: mixing and transport; Photochimie et aerosol en region alpine: melange et transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaxel, E

2006-11-15

The Alpine arc deeply interacts with general circulation of atmosphere. By studying configurations in summer and winter over various Alpine areas, this work explains how mixing and transport of airborne pollutants happen, both gaseous and particulate matter, from their emission sources to free troposphere. Using observational results and a comprehensive Eulerian modelling system, one focuses on mechanisms of pollution by ozone in summer and by particulate matter and benzene in winter. After having validated the modelling system using datasets from field experiments POVA, GRENOPHOT and ESCOMPTE, it is applied on two periods with principal interest in the Grenoble area: one is the heat-wave August 2003 and the other is a long episode of thermal inversion in February 2005. Uncertainties are also calculated. One finishes by applying the modelling chain to understand how a stratospheric intrusion following a tropopause fold affected the Alpine region in July 2004. (author)

Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-01-01

Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petry, H; Ebel, A; Franzkowiak, V; Hendricks, J; Lippert, E; Moellhoff, M [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

1998-12-31

The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

Impact of aircraft exhaust on the atmosphere. Box model studies and 3-D mesoscale numerical case studies of seasonal differences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petry, H.; Ebel, A.; Franzkowiak, V.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Moellhoff, M. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

1997-12-31

The impact of aircraft emissions released in the tropopause region on atmospheric trace gases as O{sub 3} or HNO{sub 3} is investigated by means of model studies. Special emphasis is drawn on seasonal effects. A box model is applied as well as a 3-D mesoscale chemistry transport model. These model studies show that the impact of aircraft emissions on ozone in the tropopause region is much stronger in summer than in late autumn with a difference of one order of magnitude. (author) 14 refs.

Effect of tropical cyclones on the stratosphere–troposphere exchange observed using satellite observations over the north Indian Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Venkat Ratnam

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Tropical cyclones play an important role in modifying the tropopause structure and dynamics as well as stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS region. In the present study, the impact of cyclones that occurred over the north Indian Ocean during 2007–2013 on the STE processes is quantified using satellite observations. Tropopause characteristics during cyclones are obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO measurements, and ozone and water vapour concentrations in the UTLS region are obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS satellite observations. The effect of cyclones on the tropopause parameters is observed to be more prominent within 500 km of the centre of the tropical cyclone. In our earlier study, we observed a decrease (increase in the tropopause altitude (temperature up to 0.6 km (3 K, and the convective outflow level increased up to 2 km. This change leads to a total increase in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL thickness of 3 km within 500 km of the centre of cyclone. Interestingly, an enhancement in the ozone mixing ratio in the upper troposphere is clearly noticed within 500 km from the cyclone centre, whereas the enhancement in the water vapour in the lower stratosphere is more significant on the south-east side, extending from 500 to 1000 km away from the cyclone centre. The cross-tropopause mass flux for different intensities of cyclones is estimated and it is found that the mean flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere for cyclonic storms is 0.05 ± 0.29 × 10−3 kg m−2, and for very severe cyclonic storms it is 0.5 ± 1.07 × 10−3 kg m−2. More downward flux is noticed on the north-west and south-west side of the cyclone centre. These results indicate that the cyclones have significant impact in effecting the tropopause structure, ozone and water vapour budget, and

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K.-M.; Li, Xiao-Fan

2001-01-01

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the

Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

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Joshua Studholme

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Extratropical transition (ET has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59 of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study.

Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East based on Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

KAUST Repository

de Vries, A. J.

2017-12-26

Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

Science.gov (United States)

de Vries, A. J.; Ouwersloot, H. G.; Feldstein, S. B.; Riemer, M.; El Kenawy, A. M.; McCabe, M. F.; Lelieveld, J.

2018-01-01

Extreme precipitation events in the otherwise arid Middle East can cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts. Most of these events are associated with tropical-extratropical interactions, whereby a stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusion reaches deep into the subtropics and forces an incursion of high poleward vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into the Middle East. This study presents an object-based identification method for extreme precipitation events based on the combination of these two larger-scale meteorological features. The general motivation for this approach is that precipitation is often poorly simulated in relatively coarse weather and climate models, whereas the synoptic-scale circulation is much better represented. The algorithm is applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2015) and detects 90% (83%) of the 99th (97.5th) percentile of extreme precipitation days in the region of interest. Our results show that stratospheric PV intrusions and IVT structures are intimately connected to extreme precipitation intensity and seasonality. The farther south a stratospheric PV intrusion reaches, the larger the IVT magnitude, and the longer the duration of their combined occurrence, the more extreme the precipitation. Our algorithm detects a large fraction of the climatological rainfall amounts (40-70%), heavy precipitation days (50-80%), and the top 10 extreme precipitation days (60-90%) at many sites in southern Israel and the northern and western parts of Saudi Arabia. This identification method provides a new tool for future work to disentangle teleconnections, assess medium-range predictability, and improve understanding of climatic changes of extreme precipitation in the Middle East and elsewhere.

A Gigantic Jet Observed Over an Mesoscale Convective System in Midlatitude Region

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jing; Sato, Mitsuteru; Liu, Ningyu; Lu, Gaopeng; Wang, Yu; Wang, Zhichao

2018-01-01

Gigantic jets (GJs) are mostly observed over summer tropical or tropical-like thunderstorms. This study reports observation of a GJ over a mesoscale convective system (MCS) in the midlatitude region in eastern China. The GJ is observed over a relatively weak radar reflectivity region ahead of the leading line, and the maximum radar echo top along the GJ azimuth was lower than the tropopause in the same region, significantly different from past studies that indicate summer GJs are usually associated with convective surges or overshooting tops. Also different from most of previous observations showing GJ-producing summer thunderstorms only produced GJ type of transient luminous events during their life cycles, two sprites were also captured in a time window of 15 min containing the GJ, indicating that the MCS provides favorable conditions not only for the GJ but also for the sprites. The balloon-borne soundings of the MCS show that there were large wind shears in the middle and upper levels of the thundercloud, which may have played important roles for the GJ production.

How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America's Atlantic coast?

Science.gov (United States)

Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.

2018-01-01

Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.

The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

2018-04-01

Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

2017-01-01

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

KAUST Repository

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

2017-03-09

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

2015-12-01

The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

Photochemistry and aerosol in alpine region: mixing and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaxel, E.

2006-11-01

The Alpine arc deeply interacts with general circulation of atmosphere. By studying configurations in summer and winter over various Alpine areas, this work explains how mixing and transport of airborne pollutants happen, both gaseous and particulate matter, from their emission sources to free troposphere. Using observational results and a comprehensive Eulerian modelling system, one focuses on mechanisms of pollution by ozone in summer and by particulate matter and benzene in winter. After having validated the modelling system using datasets from field experiments POVA, GRENOPHOT and ESCOMPTE, it is applied on two periods with principal interest in the Grenoble area: one is the heat-wave August 2003 and the other is a long episode of thermal inversion in February 2005. Uncertainties are also calculated. One finishes by applying the modelling chain to understand how a stratospheric intrusion following a tropopause fold affected the Alpine region in July 2004. (author)

Atmospheric Rivers and Their Role in Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-01

located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones (warm conveyor belt) and can be characterized by strong winds (low level jet) and large water...the associated synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone and subsequent frontal processes of each planetary wave, resulting in narrow regions of moisture...normal falls during AR storms during the winter on the West Coast. During the summer, precipitation enhancements were not as significant (mostly due

Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Widmann

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Climate proxy data provide noisy, and spatially incomplete information on some aspects of past climate states, whereas palaeosimulations with climate models provide global, multi-variable states, which may however differ from the true states due to unpredictable internal variability not related to climate forcings, as well as due to model deficiencies. Using data assimilation for combining the empirical information from proxy data with the physical understanding of the climate system represented by the equations in a climate model is in principle a promising way to obtain better estimates for the climate of the past.

Data assimilation has been used for a long time in weather forecasting and atmospheric analyses to control the states in atmospheric General Circulation Models such that they are in agreement with observation from surface, upper air, and satellite measurements. Here we discuss the similarities and the differences between the data assimilation problem in palaeoclimatology and in weather forecasting, and present and conceptually compare three data assimilation methods that have been developed in recent years for applications in palaeoclimatology. All three methods (selection of ensemble members, Forcing Singular Vectors, and Pattern Nudging are illustrated by examples that are related to climate variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium. In particular it is shown that all three methods suggest that the cold period over Scandinavia during 1790–1820 is linked to anomalous northerly or easterly atmospheric flow, which in turn is related to a pressure anomaly that resembles a negative state of the Northern Annular Mode.

A daytime climatological distribution of high opaque ice cloud classes over the Indian summer monsoon region observed from 25-year AVHRR data

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A. Devasthale

2009-06-01

Full Text Available A daytime climatological spatio-temporal distribution of high opaque ice cloud (HOIC classes over the Indian subcontinent (0–40° N, 60° E–100° E is presented using 25-year data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs for the summer monsoon months. The HOICs are important for regional radiative balance, precipitation and troposphere-stratosphere exchange. In this study, HOICs are sub-divided into three classes based on their cloud top brightness temperatures (BT. Class I represents very deep convection (BT<220 K. Class II represents deep convection (220 K<=BT<233 K and Class III background convection (233 K<=BT<253 K. Apart from presenting finest spatial resolution (0.1×0.1 degrees and long-term climatology of such cloud classes from AVHRRs to date, this study for the first time illustrates on (1 how these three cloud classes are climatologically distributed during monsoon months, and (2 how their distribution changes during active and break monsoon conditions. It is also investigated that how many deep convective clouds reach the tropopause layer during individual monsoon months. It is seen that Class I and Class II clouds dominate the Indian subcontinent during monsoon. The movement of monsoon over continent is very well reflected in these cloud classes. During monsoon breaks strong suppression of convective activity is observed over the Arabian Sea and the western coast of India. On the other hand, the presence of such convective activity is crucial for active monsoon conditions and all-India rainfall. It is found that a significant fraction of HOICs (3–5% reach the tropopause layer over the Bay of Bengal during June and over the north and northeast India during July and August. Many cases are observed when clouds penetrate the tropopause layer and reach the lower stratosphere. Such cases mostly occur during June compared to the other months.

Sensitivity study of surface wind flow of a limited area model simulating the extratropical storm Delta affecting the Canary Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Marrero

2009-04-01

Full Text Available In November 2005 an extratropical storm named Delta affected the Canary Islands (Spain. The high sustained wind and intense gusts experienced caused significant damage. A numerical sensitivity study of Delta was conducted using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW. A total of 27 simulations were performed. Non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic experiments were designed taking into account physical parameterizations and geometrical factors (size and position of the outer domain, definition or not of nested grids, horizontal resolution and number of vertical levels. The Factor Separation Method was applied in order to identify the major model sensitivity parameters under this unusual meteorological situation. Results associated to percentage changes relatives to a control run simulation demonstrated that boundary layer and surface layer schemes, horizontal resolutions, hydrostaticity option and nesting grid activation were the model configuration parameters with the greatest impact on the 48 h maximum 10 m horizontal wind speed solution.

Demonstration of Aerosol Property Profiling by Multiwavelength Lidar Under Varying Relative Humidity Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Veselovskii, I.; Whiteman, D. N.; Kolgotin, A.; Andrews, E.; Korenskii, M.

2009-01-01

During the months of July-August 2007 NASA conducted a research campaign called the Tropical Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment. Vertical profiles of ozone were measured daily using an instrument known as an ozonesonde, which is attached to a weather balloon and launch to altitudes in excess of 30 km. These ozone profiles were measured over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8N, 80W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (ION, 84W). Meteorological systems in the form of waves, detected most prominently in 100-300 in thick ozone layer in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves ("GW," possibly Kelvin waves), occur with similar stricture and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8N, 55W) and San Cristobal (0.925, 90W) sites of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The gravity wave labeled layers in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by the tracers measured from the NASA DC-8 and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi-horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extra-tropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999-2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated meteorological waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer.

The Role of the Stratosphere in Explosive Deepening of Extratropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Knippertz, Peter; Wilbraham, Robert; Trzeciak, Tomek; Owen, Jenny; Odell, Luke; Fink, Andreas H.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2014-05-01

Using a combination of an automatic cyclone tracking method and a special version of the classical pressure tendency equation (PTE), changes in surface core pressure of extra-tropical cyclones can be related to contributions from horizontal temperature advection, vertical motion and diabatic processes, i.e. mainly latent heat release in clouds. Here, the PTE is evaluated in 3°x3° boxes located over the cyclone positions at 6-hourly basis, thus following the movement of a given storm at each time step. PTE calculations are performed from the surface to 100 hPa. Previous work has shown that this approach can be used to quantify the contribution of diabatic processes to cyclone deepening in an automated way, and can easily be applied to large gridded datasets, in this case ERA-Interim reanalyses. In order to close the mass budget in the PTE, geopotential height tendencies at the upper integration boundary (usually 100 hPa) need to be taken into account. Older studies have assumed this term to be negligible, and this has been confirmed with modern re-analysis data for many explosively deepening storms. However, some historical storms show a remarkable contribution from this term, indicating a substantial warming of the levels above 100hPa. An outstanding example is the Braer Storm of January 1993, which reached a record minimum core pressure of 914 hPa near Iceland. A stepwise increase of the upper integration boundary reveals that substantial geopotential height tendencies reach above 1 hPa. This unusual behaviour appears to be related to the propagation of a deep planetary wave trough from North America towards the North Atlantic basin. A similar but somewhat less dramatic behaviour was found for cyclone Wiebke. Another interesting example is storm Emma, which managed to sustain substantial deepening rates despite adverse positive geopotential height tendencies at 100 hPa. Future work will include a more robust statistical analysis of this problem and a better

A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

Science.gov (United States)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

NASA Experiment on Tropospheric-Stratospheric Water Vapor Transport in the Intertropical Convergence Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Page, William A.

1982-01-01

The following six papers report preliminary results obtained from a field experiment designed to study the role of tropical cumulo-nimbus clouds in the transfer of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere over the region of Panama. The measurements were made utilizing special NOAA enhanced IR satellite images, radiosonde-ozonesondes and a NASA U-2 aircraft carrying. nine experiments. The experiments were provided by a group of NASA, NOAA, industry, and university scientists. Measurements included atmospheric humidity, air and cloud top temperatures, atmospheric tracer constituents, cloud particle characteristics and cloud morphology. The aircraft made a total of eleven flights from August 30 through September 18, 1980, from Howard Air Force Base, Panama; the pilots obtained horizontal and vertical profiles in and near convectively active regions and flew around and over cumulo-nimbus towers and through the extended anvils in the stratosphere. Cumulo-nimbus clouds in the tropics appear to play an important role in upward water vapor transport and may represent the principal source influencing the stratospheric water vapor budget. The clouds provide strong vertical circulation in the troposphere, mixing surface air and its trace materials (water vapor, CFM's sulfur compounds, etc.) quickly up to the tropopause. It is usually assumed that large scale mean motions or eddy scale motions transport the trace materials through the tropopause and into the stratosphere where they are further dispersed and react with other stratospheric constituents. The important step between the troposphere and stratosphere for water vapor appears to depend upon the processes occurring at or near the tropopause at the tops of the cumulo-nimbus towers. Several processes have been sugested: (1) The highest towers penetrate the tropopause and carry water in the form of small ice particles directly into the stratosphere. (2) Water vapor from the tops of the cumulonimbus clouds is

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

Aerosol vertical distribution, new particle formation, and jet aircraft particle emissions in the free troposhere and tropopause region; Vertikalverteilung und Neubildungsprozesse des Aerosols und partikelfoermige Flugzeugemissionen in der freien Troposphaere und Tropopausenregion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schroeder, F P

2000-07-01

A contribution to the understanding of natural and anthropogenously induced particle formation as well as aerosol physical transformation processes within the free troposphere (FT) is introduced. Documentation and interpretation of empirical data relevant with respect to possible climatologic impact of anthropogenous aerosol emissions into the atmosphere is presented. The first section describes new technique for high spatial resolution measurements of ultrafine aerosol particles by condensation nucleus counters (CNCs), a necessary prerequisite for the observation of natural particle formation and jet aircraft emissions. The second section illustrates vertical distribution and variability ranges of the aerosol in the FT and the tropopause region (TP). Typical microphysical states of the atmospheric aerosol within the Northern Hemisphere are documented by means of systematic measurements during more than 60 flight missions. Simple mathematical parameterizations of the aerosol vertical distribution and aerosol size distributions are developed. Important aerosol sources within the FT are localized and possible aerosol formation processes are discussed. The third section is focussed on jet-engine particle emissions within the FT and TP. A unique inflight experiment for detection of extremely high concentrations (>10{sup 6} cm{sup -3}) of extremely small (donw to <3 nm) aerosols inside the exhaust plumes of several jet aircraft is described. Particle emission indices and emission-controlling parameters are deduced. Most important topic is the impact of fuel sulfur content of kerosine on number, size and chemical composition of jet particle emissions. Generalized results are parameterized in form of lognormal aerosol particle size distributions. (orig.) [German] Ein Beitrag zum Verstaendnis natuerlicher und anthropogen induzierter Aerosolneubildung sowie physikalischer Aerosolumwandlung in der freien Troposphaere wird vorgestellt. Empirisch gewonnenes Datenmaterial wird

An Investigation of Multi-Satellite Stratospheric Measurements on Tropospheric Weather Predictions over Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Min

The troposphere and stratosphere are the two closest atmospheric layers to the Earth's surface. These two layers are separated by the so-called tropopause. On one hand, these two layers are largely distinguished, on the other hand, lots of evidences proved that connections are also existed between these two layers via various dynamical and chemical feedbacks. Both tropospheric and stratospheric waves can propagate through the tropopause and affect the down streams, despite the fact that this propagation of waves is relatively weaker than the internal interactions in both atmospheric layers. Major improvements have been made in numerical weather predictions (NWP) via data assimilation (DA) in the past 30 years. From optimal interpolation to variational methods and Kalman Filter, great improvements are also made in the development of DA technology. The availability of assimilating satellite radiance observation and the increasing amount of satellite measurements enabled the generation of better atmospheric initials for both global and regional NWP systems. The selection of DA schemes is critical for regional NWP systems. The performance of three major data assimilation (3D-Var, Hybrid, and EnKF) schemes on regional weather forecasts over the continental United States during winter and summer is investigated. Convergence rate in the variational methods can be slightly accelerated especially in summer by the inclusion of ensembles. When the regional model lid is set at 50-mb, larger improvements (10˜20%) in the initials are obtained over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Better forecast skills (˜10%) are obtained in all three DA schemes in summer. Among these three DA schemes, slightly better (˜1%) forecast skills are obtained in Hybrid configuration than 3D-Var. Overall better forecast skills are obtained in summer via EnKF scheme. An extra 22% skill in predicting summer surface pressure but 10% less skills in winter are given by EnKF when compared to 3D

Extratropical Influence of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind on Water Recycling Rate Over Oceans and Coastal Lands

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Hua; Liu, W. Timothy

1999-01-01

Water vapor and precipitation are two important parameters confining the hydrological cycle in the atmosphere and over the ocean surface. In the extratropical areas, due to variations of midlatitude storm tracks and subtropical jetstreams, water vapor and precipitation have large variability. Recently, a concept of water recycling rate defined previously by Chahine et al. (GEWEX NEWS, August, 1997) has drawn increasing attention. The recycling rate of moisture is calculated as the ratio of precipitation to total precipitable water (its inverse is the water residence time). In this paper, using multi-sensor spacebased measurements we will study the role of sea surface temperature and ocean surface wind in determining the water recycling rate over oceans and coastal lands. Response of water recycling rate in midlatitudes to the El Nino event will also be discussed. Sea surface temperature data are derived from satellite observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) blended with in situ measurements, available for the period 1982-1998. Global sea surface wind observations are obtained from spaceborne scatterometers aboard on the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS1 and 2), available for the period 1991-1998. Global total precipitable water provided by the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP) is available for the period 1988-1995. Global monthly mean precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is available for the period 1987-1998.

Sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation

Science.gov (United States)

Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Randel, William J.; Kim, Joowan

2017-04-01

We investigate sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using daily gridded fields of GPS radio occultation measurements. The unprecedented vertical resolution (from about 100 m in the troposphere to about 1.5 km in the stratosphere) and high accuracy and precision (0.7 K to 1 K between 8 km and 25 km) make these data ideal for characterizing temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths. Long-term behavior of sub-seasonal temperature variability is investigated using the entire RO record from January 2002 to December 2014 (13 years of data). Transient sub-seasonal waves including eastward-propagating Kelvin waves (isolated with space-time spectral analysis) dominate large-scale zonal temperature variability in the tropical tropopause region and in the lower stratosphere. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Enhanced wave activity can be found during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, sub-seasonal waves are highly transient in time. Several peaks of Kelvin-wave activity coincide with short-term fluctuations in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Also, there are no obvious relationships with zonal winds or stability fields near the tropical tropopause. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions along the waves' trajectories are needed to better understand sub-seasonal temperature variability near the tropopause. For more details, see Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.: Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793-806, doi:10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/793/2017/acp-17-793-2017.html

Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Jane C.; Herzog, Lauren; Fabri, Olivia; Tremoulet, Adriana H.; Rodó, Xavier; Uehara, Ritei; Burgner, David; Bainto, Emelia; Pierce, David; Tyree, Mary; Cayan, Daniel

2013-01-01

Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter

Potential impacts of wintertime soil moisture anomalies from agricultural irrigation at low latitudes on regional and global climates

Science.gov (United States)

Wey, Hao-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Lee, Shih-Yu; Yu, Jin-Yi; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2015-10-01

Anthropogenic water management can change surface energy budgets and the water cycle. In this study, we focused on impacts of Asian low-latitude irrigation on regional and global climates during boreal wintertime. A state-of-the-art Earth system model is used to simulate the land-air interaction processes affected by irrigation and the consequent responses in atmospheric circulation. Perturbed experiments show that wet soil moisture anomalies at low latitudes can reduce the surface temperature on a continental scale through atmospheric feedback. The intensity of prevailing monsoon circulation becomes stronger because of larger land-sea thermal contrast. Furthermore, anomalous upper level convergence over South Asia and midlatitude climatic changes indicate tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and an anomalous warm surface temperature is found in North America. Previous studies have noted this warming but left it unexplained, and we provide plausible mechanisms for these remote impacts coming from the irrigation over Asian low-latitude regions.

Morphologic Response and Sediment Redistribution of the Beach and Nearshore Sand Bars due to Extratropical and Tropical Storm Forcing: a Spatial and Temporal Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Miselis, J. L.; McNinch, J. E.

2005-05-01

Shore-oblique bars and associated exposures of an underlying geologic stratum in the nearshore have been documented along the US East Coast and have been linked to shoreline erosional hotspots. While earlier studies acknowledged that the bedforms responded to extratropical and tropical storms, neither quantified the extent of sediment redistribution after the events. An approach that encompasses actual volume measurements across the nearshore-beach down to a non-sandy stratum and quantifies the response of the beach and the nearshore to the same hydrodynamic forcing will enable a better understanding of the exchange of sediment between the two regions. Total nearshore sediment volume has been shown to be a first-order contributor to the behavior of the shoreline. This volumetric approach is employed in the analysis of morphological changes and the redistribution of sediment in the nearshore and beach following storms. A regional survey from 2002 provides the initial, fair-weather morphologic state of the nearshore (1.5-15m water depth) spanning 40 km of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Four small-scale surveys were conducted in subsequent years, focusing on four 1-km2 regions within the initial 2002 survey area. The smaller regions were selected on the basis of the morphological state observed during the 2002 survey and historical shoreline behavior. Data were collected in March 2003 following a Northeaster; in May 2003 following an extended period of fair weather conditions; in November 2003 following Hurricane Isabel; and finally, in June 2004 after another period of fair weather. A swath bathymetry system was used to collect bathymetry and side scan sonar (acoustic backscatter) and a high-resolution chirp sub-bottom profiler imaged the shallow sub-surface geology of the nearshore. In addition, RTK-GPS was used to map the sub-aerial beach at each 1-km2 site from the toe of the dune to the water line for the May 2003, November 2003, and June 2004 sampling periods

Tropospheric ozone annual variation and possible troposphere-stratosphere coupling in the Arctic and Antarctic as derived from ozone soundings at Resolute and Amundsen-Scott stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A.N.; Sitnov, S.A. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics)

1993-01-01

The tropospheric ozone annual variation in the northern and southern polar regions is analyzed from ozone sounding data obtained at Resolute during a 15-year period and Amundsen-Scott during a 7-year period. The phase of ozone annual variation above Resolute changes (increases) gradually from the stratosphere across the tropopause to the middle troposphere. Unlike this, the phase of the Antarctic ozone annual harmonic has a discontinuity in the layer of the changing tropopause level, so that the annual harmonic in the upper troposphere, lower stratosphere is 4-to-5 months out of phase (earlier) to that above and beneath. Above both the Arctic and Antarctic stations, the ozone mixing ratio and its vertical gradient evolve in a similar manner in the wide layer from the lower stratosphere to the middle troposphere. This likely points out that ozone in this layer is controlled from above. An indication of the stratospheric-tropospheric ozone exchange above Resolute is noted from mid-winter to spring. The analysis of columnar tropospheric ozone changes gives a lower estimate of the cross-tropopause ozone flux up to 5x10[sup 10] mol cm[sup -2] s[sup -1]. Above the South Pole, the cross-tropopause ozone flux is not usually large. There is also some evidence that early in the spring, when the stratospheric ozone 'hole' is developed, the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange conducts the influence of the 'hole' into the upper troposphere, where the integrated ozone destruction is estimated to be 8x10[sup 10] mol cm[sup -2] s[sup -1]. Correlation analysis gives no ozone-tropopause correlation in the Antarctic in winter, while in other seasons as well as during all seasons in the Arctic, there are negative correlation peaks just above the tropopause. (19 refs., 6 figs.).

Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio

2017-07-01

This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two

Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven

2016-01-01

We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. Olsen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

Reconciling apparent inconsistencies in estimates of terrestrial CO2 sources and sinks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

House, J.I.; Prentice, I.C.; Heimann, M.; Ramankutty, N.

2003-01-01

The magnitude and location of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks remains subject to large uncertainties. Estimates of terrestrial CO 2 fluxes from ground-based inventory measurements typically find less carbon uptake than inverse model calculations based on atmospheric CO 2 measurements, while a wide range of results have been obtained using models of different types. However, when full account is taken of the processes, pools, time scales and geographic areas being measured, the different approaches can be understood as complementary rather than inconsistent, and can provide insight as to the contribution of various processes to the terrestrial carbon budget. For example, quantitative differences between atmospheric inversion model estimates and forest inventory estimates in northern extratropical regions suggest that carbon fluxes to soils (often not accounted for in inventories), and into non-forest vegetation, may account for about half of the terrestrial uptake. A consensus of inventory and inverse methods indicates that, in the 1980s, northern extratropical land regions were a large net sink of carbon, and the tropics were approximately neutral (albeit with high uncertainty around the central estimate of zero net flux). The terrestrial flux in southern extratropical regions was small. Book-keeping model studies of the impacts of land-use change indicated a large source in the tropics and almost zero net flux for most northern extratropical regions; similar land use change impacts were also recently obtained using process-based models. The difference between book-keeping land-use change model studies and inversions or inventories was previously interpreted as a 'missing' terrestrial carbon uptake. Land-use change studies do not account for environmental or many management effects (which are implicitly included in inventory and inversion methods). Process-based model studies have quantified the impacts of CO 2 fertilisation and climate change in addition to

Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, K.-C.; Barnes, E. A.; Maloney, E. D.

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forces strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data and numerical forecast model ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anomalies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10-13 day limits.

Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ulbrich, Uwe; Grieger, Jens [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. of Meteorology; Leckebusch, Gregor C. [Birmingham Univ. (United Kingdom). School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences] [and others

2013-02-15

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods. (orig.)

In-situ observation of Asian pollution transported into the Arctic lowermost stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Roiger

2011-11-01

Full Text Available On a research flight on 10 July 2008, the German research aircraft Falcon sampled an air mass with unusually high carbon monoxide (CO, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN and water vapour (H₂O mixing ratios in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere. The air mass was encountered twice at an altitude of 11.3 km, ~800 m above the dynamical tropopause. In-situ measurements of ozone, NO, and NO_y indicate that this layer was a mixed air mass containing both air from the troposphere and stratosphere. Backward trajectory and Lagrangian particle dispersion model analysis suggest that the Falcon sampled the top of a polluted air mass originating from the coastal regions of East Asia. The anthropogenic pollution plume experienced strong up-lift in a warm conveyor belt (WCB located over the Russian east-coast. Subsequently the Asian air mass was transported across the North Pole into the sampling area, elevating the local tropopause by up to ~3 km. Mixing with surrounding Arctic stratospheric air most likely took place during the horizontal transport when the tropospheric streamer was stretched into long and narrow filaments. The mechanism illustrated in this study possibly presents an important pathway to transport pollution into the polar tropopause region.

75 FR 28593 - Board on Coastal Engineering Research

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-21

...-Level Changes along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Atlantic Region Coastal Storms, Overview of Climatic Variation Effects on Extratropical and Tropical Storms, Evidence for a Changing North Pacific Wave Climate...

Initial results from the StratoClim aircraft campaign in the Asian Monsoon in summer 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Rex, M.

2017-12-01

The Asian Monsoon System is one of the Earth's largest and most energetic weather systems. Monsoon rainfall is critical to feeding over a billion people in Asia and the monsoon circulation affects weather patterns over the entire northern hemisphere. The Monsoon also acts like an enormous elevator, pumping vast amounts of air and pollutants from the surface up to the tropopause region at levels above 16km altitude, from where air can ascend into the stratosphere, where it spreads globally. Thus the monsoon affects the chemical composition of the global tropopause region and the stratosphere, and hence plays a key role for the composition of the UTS. Dynamically the monsoon circulation leads to the formation of a large anticyclone at tropopause levels above South Asia - the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). Satellite images show a large cloud of aerosols directly above the monsoon, the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). In July to August 2017 the international research project StratoClim carried out the first in-situ aircraft measurements in the AMA and the ATAL with the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica. Around 8 scientific flights took place in the airspaces of Nepal, India and Bangladesh and have horizontally and vertically probed the AMA and have well characterized the ATAL along flight patterns that have been carefully designed by a theory, modelling and satellite data analysing team in the field. The aircraft campaign has been complemented by launches of research balloons from ground stations in Nepal, Bangladesh, China and Palau. The presentation will give an overview of the StratoClim project, the aircraft and balloon activities and initial results from the StratoClim Asian Monsoon campaign in summer 2017.

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

Tropical-Extratropical Exchange Based on Argo Profiles and Ship-Based Observations Near the Western Boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, D.; Li, B.; Yang, L.

2014-12-01

The tropical-extratropical exchange in the northwestern Pacific Ocean is studied using the absolute geostrophic currents based on Argo Profiles and the observations of the western boundary currents (WBCs) during two cruises in the winters of 2010 and 2012. The absolute geostrophic currents are calculated using the P-vector method for the period of 2004 through 2011. The transport of the geostrophic currents is compared with the Sverdrup theory and found to differ significantly in several locations. Analyses have shown that errors of wind stress estimation cannot account for all of the differences. The largest differences are found in the area, where nonlinear activities are vigorous. It is, therefore, suggested that the linear dynamics of the Sverdrup theory is deficient in explaining the geostrophic transport of the tropical northwestern Pacific Ocean. Previous studies suggest recharge and discharge of the tropical Pacific Ocean heat content through the interior circulation of the North Pacific Ocean, based on the Sverdrup theory, and that the WBCs play the role opposite to the interior ocean recharge and discharge anomalies. Using ocean observations from two cruises in a La Niña winter and a normal winter, it is suggested that the Kuroshio transport decreases significantly and the Mindanao Current transport increases significantly at the peak of 2010 La Niña, opposite to the prediction of existing theory. The anomalies of the western boundary current transport are found much larger than those of the meridional circulation in the entire interior of the North Pacific Ocean, the dynamics of which are suggested to be associated with the Kelvin wave propagation around the Philippine islands. The results suggest that the WBCs dominate the interannual recharge and discharge of the western Pacific warm pool during the 2010 La Niña.

AIRFORCE. Aircraft emissions and radiative forcing from emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meijer, E.W.; Kelder, H.; Velthoven, P.F.J. van; Wauben, W.M.F. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands); Beck, J.P.; Velders, G.J.M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Lelieveld, J.; Scheeren, B.A. [Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

The Dutch AIRFORCE project focuses on the effects of subsonic aircraft emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and subsequent radiative forcing. It includes measurements in the tropopause region and the modelling of exhaust plumes and large-scale effects. An aircraft exhaust plume model has been developed to study plume processes. The results of the plume model are used in the global transport chemistry model CTMK to determine large-scale effects of plume processes. Due to the efficient conversion of NO{sub x} into HNO{sub 3} inside aircraft exhaust plumes, a decrease of about 25% of the O{sub 3} perturbation was found in the NAFC at 200 hPa in July. Measurements of hydrocarbons revealed a dominant role of the anthropogenic continental emissions of light hydrocarbons in the tropopause region. (author) 20 refs.

AIRFORCE. Aircraft emissions and radiative forcing from emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meijer, E W; Kelder, H; Velthoven, P F.J. van; Wauben, W M.F. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands); Beck, J P; Velders, G J.M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Lelieveld, J; Scheeren, B A [Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (Netherlands)

1998-12-31

The Dutch AIRFORCE project focuses on the effects of subsonic aircraft emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and subsequent radiative forcing. It includes measurements in the tropopause region and the modelling of exhaust plumes and large-scale effects. An aircraft exhaust plume model has been developed to study plume processes. The results of the plume model are used in the global transport chemistry model CTMK to determine large-scale effects of plume processes. Due to the efficient conversion of NO{sub x} into HNO{sub 3} inside aircraft exhaust plumes, a decrease of about 25% of the O{sub 3} perturbation was found in the NAFC at 200 hPa in July. Measurements of hydrocarbons revealed a dominant role of the anthropogenic continental emissions of light hydrocarbons in the tropopause region. (author) 20 refs.

Variability of Irreversible Poleward Transport in the Lower Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Mark; Douglass, Anne; Newman, Paul; Nash, Eric; Witte, Jacquelyn; Ziemke, Jerry

2011-01-01

The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

A novel tropopause-related climatology of ozone profiles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sofieva, V.F.; Tamminen, J.; Kyrola, E.; Mielonen, T.; Veefkind, J.P.; Hassler, B.; Bodeker, G.E.

2014-01-01

A new ozone climatology, based on ozonesonde and satellite measurements, spanning the altitude region between the earth's surface and ~60 km is presented (TpO3 climatology). This climatology is novel in that the ozone profiles are categorized according to calendar month, latitude and local

Prediction of North Pacific Height Anomalies During Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

Science.gov (United States)

Kai-Chih, T.; Barnes, E. A.; Maloney, E. D.

2017-12-01

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) creates strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data (MERRA and ERA-Interim) and ECMWF ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anoma- lies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10-13 day limits. Furthermore, we also examine the phase dependency of teleconnection robustness by using Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) and the result is consistent with the ensemble hindcasts : the anomalous heating of MJO phase 2 (phase 6) can consistently generate positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies around the extratropical Pacific with a lead of 15-20 days, while other phases are more sensitive to the variaion of the mean state.

Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria. The results indicate an ... tropical and extratropical regions, are dominated .... MSG is a new series of European geostationary satellites ...

An examination of extratropical cyclone response to changes in baroclinicity and temperature in an idealized environment

Science.gov (United States)

Tierney, Gregory; Posselt, Derek J.; Booth, James F.

2018-02-01

The dynamics and precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are known to be sensitive to changes in the cyclone environment, with increases in bulk water vapor and baroclinicity both leading to increases in storm strength and precipitation. Studies that demonstrate this sensitivity have commonly varied either the cyclone moisture or baroclinicity, but seldom both. In a changing climate, in which the near-surface equator to pole temperature gradient may weaken while the bulk water vapor content of the atmosphere increases, it is important to understand the relative response of ETC strength and precipitation to changes in both factors simultaneously. In this study, idealized simulations of ETC development are conducted in a moist environment using a model with a full suite of moist physics parameterizations. The bulk temperature (and water vapor content) and baroclinicity are systematically varied one at a time, then simultaneously, and the effect of these variations on the storm strength and precipitation is assessed. ETC intensity exhibits the well-documented response to changes in baroclinicity, with stronger ETCs forming in higher baroclinicity environments. However, increasing water vapor content produces non-monotonic changes in storm strength, in which storm intensity first increases with increasing environmental water vapor, then decreases above a threshold value. Examination of the storm geographic extent indicates cyclone size also decreases above a threshold value of bulk environmental temperature (and water vapor). Decrease in storm size is concomitant with an increase in the convective fraction of precipitation and a shift in the vertical distribution of latent heating. The results indicate the existence of at least two regimes for ETC development, each of which exhibit significantly different distributions of PV due to differences in timing and location of convective heating.

The intensity of precipitation during extratropical cyclones in global warming simulations: a link to cyclone intensity?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watterson, I.G. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale (Australia)

2006-01-01

Simulations of global warming over the coming century from two CSIRO GCMs are analysed to assess changes in the intensity of extratropical cyclones, and the potential role of increased latent heating associated with precipitation during cyclones. A simple surface cyclone detection scheme is applied to a four-member ensemble of simulations from the Mark 2 GCM, under rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal distribution of cyclones appears broadly realistic during 1961-1990. By 2071-2100, with 3 K global warming, numbers over 20 deg N to 70 deg N decrease by 6% in winter and 2% annually, with similar results for the south. The average intensity of cyclones, from relative central pressure and other measures, is largely unchanged however. 30-yr extremes of dynamic intensity also show little clear change, including values averaged over continents. Mean rain rates at cyclone centres are typically at least double rates from all days. Rates during cyclones increase by an average 14% in the northern winter under global warming. Rates over adjacent grid squares and during the previous day increase similarly, as do extreme rates. Results from simulations of the higher-resolution (1.8 deg grid) Mark 3 GCM are similar, with widespread increases in rain rates but not in cyclone intensity. The analyses suggest that latent heating during storms increases, as anticipated due to the increased moisture capacity of the warmer atmosphere. However, any role for enhanced heating in storm development in the GCMs is apparently masked by other factors. An exception is a 5% increase in extreme intensity around 55 deg S in Mark 3, despite decreased numbers of lows, a factor assessed using extreme value theory. Further studies with yet higher-resolution models may be needed to examine the potential realism of these results, particularly with regard to extremes at smaller scale.

A Meteorological Overview of the TC4 Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Pfister, L.; Selkirk, H. B.; Starr, D. O.; Rosenlof, K.; Newman, P. F.

2010-01-01

The TC4 mission in Central America during summer 2007 examined convective transport into the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) and the evolution of cirrus clouds. The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) circulation is dominated by the Asian monsoon anticyclone and westward winds that stretch from the western Pacific into the Atlantic. During TC4, TTL westward flow over Central America was stronger than normal. Incidence of cold clouds over the Central American region was the third lowest out of 34 years sampled. The major factor was an incipient La Nina, specifically anomalously cold temperatures off the Pacific Coast of South America. Weakness in the low level Caribbean jet caused a shift in the coldest clouds from the Caribbean to the Pacific side of Central America. The character of tropopause temperature variability was that of upward propagating waves generated by local and nonlocal convection. These waves produced tropopause temperature variations of 3 K, with peak-to-peak variations of 8 K. At low levels in Central America, flow from the Sahara desert predominated; further south, the air came from the Amazon region. Convectively influenced air in the upper troposphere came from Central America, the northern Amazon region, the Atlantic ITCZ, and the North American monsoon. In the TTL, Asian and African convection affected the observed air masses. North of 10N in the Central American TTL, African and Asian convection may have contributed as much to the air masses as Central and South American convection. South of 8N, Asian and African convection had far less impact.

Development of a Seasonal Extratropical Cyclone Activity Outlook for the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaskan Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Shippee, N. J.; Atkinson, D. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Partain, J.; Gottschalck, J.; Marra, J. J.

2013-12-01

Storm activity (i.e. 'storminess') and associated forecasting skill in the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska is relatively well understood on a daily to weekly scale, however, two important elements are missing from current capacity. First, there is no way to predict storm activity at the monthly to seasonal time frame. Second, storm activity is characterized in terms that best serve weather specialists, and which are often not very informative for different sectors of the public. Increasing the utility of forecasts for end users requires consultation with these groups, and can include expressing storm activity in terms of, for example, strong-wind return intervals or ship hull strength. These types of forecasts can provide valuable information for use in community planning, resource allocation, or potential risk assessment. A preliminary study of seasonal storminess predictability in the North Pacific and Alaska regions has shown that a key factor related to the annual variation of seasonal storminess is the strength of the Aleutian Low as measured using indices such as the North Pacific Index (NPI) or Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI). Use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify patterns in storminess variability indicates that the primary mode of annual variation is found to be best explained by the variation in the strength of the Aleutian Low. NPI and the first component of storm activity for the entire region are found to be are highly correlated (R = 0.83). This result is supported by the works of others such as Rodionov et al. (2007), who note the impact of the strength of the Aleutian Low on storm track and speed. Additionally, the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along with NPI, have been shown to be highly correlated with annual variance in the seasonal storminess for the North Pacific and Alaska. Additional skill has been identified when the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is explicitly considered

Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scaife, Adam A.; Fereday, David R.; Butchart, Neal; Hardiman, Steven C. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Langematz, Ulrike [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Akiyoshi, Hideharu [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Bekki, Slimane [LATMOS-IPSL, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS/INSU, Paris (France); Braesicke, Peter [University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Chipperfield, Martyn P. [University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Gettelman, Andrew [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Michou, Martine [GAME/CNRM (Meteo France, CNRS), Toulouse (France); Rozanov, Eugene [PMOD/WRC and ETHZ, Davos (Switzerland); Shepherd, Theodore G. [University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2012-05-15

Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections. (orig.)

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Modeling System Validation. Report 4: Intermediate Submission No. 2.0

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-01

Hurricane Isabel, Hurricane Ernesto, and Extratropical Storm Ida. Model skill was accessed by quantitative comparison of model output to wind, wave...25. Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida maximum wind speeds. ......................................................... 41  Figure 26. Extratropical Storm ...Nor’Ida wind validation stations. ........................................................ 42  Figure 27. Comparisons of Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida wind

The Governing Processes and Timescales of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport and its Contribution to Ozone in the Arctic Troposphere

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Q.; Douglass, A. R.; Duncan, B. N.; Stolarski, R. S.; Witte, J. C.

2009-01-01

We used the seasonality of a combination of atmospheric trace gases and idealized tracers to examine stratosphere-to-troposphere transport and its influence on tropospheric composition in the Arctic. Maximum stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of CFCs and O3 occurs in April as driven by the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) occurs predominantly between 40 deg N to 80 deg N with stratospheric influx in the mid-latitudes (30-70 deg N) accounting for 67.81 percent of the air of stratospheric origin in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Transport from the lower stratosphere to the lower troposphere (LT) takes three months on average, one month to cross the tropopause, the second month to travel from the upper troposphere (UT) to the middle troposphere (MT), and the third month to reach the LT. During downward transport, the seasonality of a trace gas can be greatly impacted by wet removal and chemistry. A comparison of idealized tracers with varying lifetimes suggests that when initialized with the same concentrations and seasonal cycles at the tropopause, trace gases that have shorter lifetimes display lower concentrations, smaller amplitudes, and earlier seasonal maxima during transport to the LT. STE contributes to O3 in the Arctic troposphere directly from the transport of O3 and indirectly from the transport of NOy . Direct transport of O3 from the stratosphere accounts for 78 percent of O3 in the Arctic UT with maximum contributions occurring from March to May. The stratospheric contribution decreases significantly in the MT/LT (20.25 percent of total O3) and shows a very weak March.April maximum. Our NOx budget analysis in the Arctic UT shows that during spring and summer, the stratospheric injection of NO y-rich air increases NOx concentrations above the 20 pptv threshold level, thereby shifting the Arctic UT from a regime of net photochemical ozone loss to one of net production with rates as high as +16 ppbv/month.

The governing processes and timescales of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport and its contribution to ozone in the Arctic troposphere

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Q.; Douglass, A. R.; Duncan, B. N.; Stolarski, R. S.; Witte, J. C.

2009-05-01

We used the seasonality of a combination of atmospheric trace gases and idealized tracers to examine stratosphere-to-troposphere transport and its influence on tropospheric composition in the Arctic. Maximum stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of CFCs and O3 occurs in April as driven by the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) occurs predominantly between 40° N to 80° N with stratospheric influx in the mid-latitudes (30-70° N) accounting for 67-81% of the air of stratospheric origin in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Transport from the lower stratosphere to the lower troposphere (LT) takes three months on average, one month to cross the tropopause, the second month to travel from the upper troposphere (UT) to the middle troposphere (MT), and the third month to reach the LT. During downward transport, the seasonality of a trace gas can be greatly impacted by wet removal and chemistry. A comparison of idealized tracers with varying lifetimes suggests that when initialized with the same concentrations and seasonal cycles at the tropopause, trace gases that have shorter lifetimes display lower concentrations, smaller amplitudes, and earlier seasonal maxima during transport to the LT. STE contributes to O3 in the Arctic troposphere directly from the transport of O3 and indirectly from the transport of NOy. Direct transport of O3 from the stratosphere accounts for 78% of O3 in the Arctic UT with maximum contributions occurring from March to May. The stratospheric contribution decreases significantly in the MT/LT (20-25% of total O3) and shows a very weak March-April maximum. Our NOx budget analysis in the Arctic UT shows that during spring and summer, the stratospheric injection of NOy-rich air increases NOx concentrations above the 20 pptv threshold level, thereby shifting the Arctic UT from a regime of net photochemical ozone loss to one of net production with rates as high as +16 ppbv/month.

Impact of Convection and Long Range Transport on Short-Lived Trace Gases in the UT/LS

Science.gov (United States)

Atlas, E. L.; Schauffler, S.; Navarro, M. A.; Lueb, R.; Hendershot, R.; Ueyama, R.

2017-12-01

Chemical composition of the air in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere is controlled by a balance of transport, photochemistry, and physical processes, such as interactions with clouds, ice, and aerosol. The chemistry of the air masses that reach the upper troposphere can potentially have profound impacts on the chemistry in the near tropopause region. For example, the transport of reactive organic halogens and their transformation to inorganic halogen species, e.g., Br, BrO, etc., can have a significant impact on ozone budgets in this region and even deeper the stratosphere. Trace gas measurements in the region near the tropopause can also indicate potential sources of surface emissions that are transported to high altitudes. Measurement of trace gases, including such compounds as non-methane hydrocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, halogenated solvents, methyl halides, etc., can be used to characterize source emissions from industrial, urban, biomass burning, or marine origins. Recent airborne research campaigns have been conducted to better characterize the chemical composition and variations in the UT/LS region. This presentation will discuss these measurements, with a special emphasis on the role of convection and transport in modifying the chemical composition of the UT/LS.

Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Numerical models have long predicted that the deforestation of the Amazon would lead to large regional changes in precipitation and temperature, but the extratropical effects of deforestation have been a matter of controversy. This paper investigates the simulated impacts of defo...

Dynamics and Composition of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschaldt, K. D.; Schlager, H.; Baumann, R.; Bozem, H.; Cai, D. S.; Eyring, V.; Hoor, P. M.; Graf, P.; Joeckel, P.; Jurkat, T.; Voigt, C.; Grewe, V.; Zahn, A.; Ziereis, H.

2017-12-01

This study places trace gas observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) obtained with the HALO research aircraft during the ESMVal campaign into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the EMAC model. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from the rest of the year. Air uplifted from the lower troposphere to the tropopause layer dominates the eastern part of the ASMA's interior, while the western part is characterized by subsidence down to the mid-troposphere. Soluble compounds are being washed out when uplifted by convection in the eastern part, where lightning simultaneously replenishes reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere. Net photochemical ozone production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, contrasted by an ozone depleting regime in the mid-troposphere and more neutral conditions in autumn and winter. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank, and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production, as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulation additionally shows entrainment of clean air from the equatorial region by northerly winds at the western ASMA flank. Although the in situ measurements were performed towards the end of summer, the main ingredients needed for their interpretation are present throughout the monsoon season.Subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the ASMA effectively overcome horizontal transport barriers, occur quite frequently, and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA and its outflow into regions around the world.

Signals of El Niño Modoki in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Xie

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The effects of El Niño Modoki events on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL and on the stratosphere were investigated using European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF reanalysis data, oceanic El Niño indices, and general climate model outputs. El Niño Modoki events tend to depress convective activities in the western and eastern Pacific but enhance convective activities in the central and northern Pacific. Consequently, during El Niño Modoki events, negative water vapor anomalies occur in the western and eastern Pacific upper troposphere, whereas there are positive anomalies in the central and northern Pacific upper troposphere. The spatial patterns of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies exhibit a tripolar form. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis of the OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies reveals that canonical El Niño events are associated with the leading mode of the EOF, while El Niño Modoki events correspond to the second mode. The composite analysis based on ERA-interim data indicate that El Niño Modoki events have a reverse effect on middle-high latitudes stratosphere, as compared with the effect of typical El Niño events, i.e., the northern polar vortex is stronger and colder but the southern polar vortex is weaker and warmer during El Niño Modoki events. According to the simulation' results, we found that the reverse effect on the middle-high latitudes stratosphere is resulted from a complicated interaction between quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO signal of east phase and El Niño Modoki signal. This interaction is not a simply linear overlay of QBO signal and El Niño Modoki signal in the stratosphere, it is El Niño Modoki that leads to different tropospheric zonal wind anomalies with QBO forcing from that caused by typical El Niño, thus, the planetary wave propagation from troposphere to the stratosphere during El Niño Modoki events is

Horizontal Variability of Water and Its Relationship to Cloud Fraction near the Tropical Tropopause: Using Aircraft Observations of Water Vapor to Improve the Representation of Grid-scale Cloud Formation in GEOS-5

Science.gov (United States)

Selkirk, Henry B.; Molod, Andrea M.

2014-01-01

Large-scale models such as GEOS-5 typically calculate grid-scale fractional cloudiness through a PDF parameterization of the sub-gridscale distribution of specific humidity. The GEOS-5 moisture routine uses a simple rectangular PDF varying in height that follows a tanh profile. While below 10 km this profile is informed by moisture information from the AIRS instrument, there is relatively little empirical basis for the profile above that level. ATTREX provides an opportunity to refine the profile using estimates of the horizontal variability of measurements of water vapor, total water and ice particles from the Global Hawk aircraft at or near the tropopause. These measurements will be compared with estimates of large-scale cloud fraction from CALIPSO and lidar retrievals from the CPL on the aircraft. We will use the variability measurements to perform studies of the sensitivity of the GEOS-5 cloud-fraction to various modifications to the PDF shape and to its vertical profile.

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science. M Venkat Ratnam. Articles written in Journal of Earth System Science. Volume 120 Issue 5 October 2011 pp 807-823. Long-term variations in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), convective available potential energy (CAPE) and temperature in the tropopause region over ...

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

2017-02-14

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Mölter

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Numerical and Observational Investigations of Long-Lived Mcs-Induced Severe Surface Wind Events: the Derecho

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Jerome Michael

This study addresses the production of sustained, straight-line, severe surface winds associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) of extratropical origin otherwise known as derechos. The physical processes which govern the observed derecho characteristics are identified and their possible forcing mechanisms are determined. Detailed observations of two derechos are presented along with simulations using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CSU-RAMS). The observations revealed a derecho environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear through the depth of the troposphere and large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE). The thermodynamic environment of the troposphere in each case had a distinct three-layer structure consisting of: (i) a surface-based stable layer of 1-to-2 km in depth, (ii) an elevated well -mixed layer of 2-4 km in depth, and (iii) an upper tropospheric layer of intermediate stability that extended to the tropopause. Two primary sets of simulations were performed to assess the impact of the observed environmental profiles on the derecho structure, propagation, and longevity. The first set consisted of nested-grid regional-scale simulations initialized from the standard NMC analyses on a domain having relatively coarse horizontal resolution (75 km). The second set of simulations consisted of two and three-dimensional experiments initialized in a horizontally homogeneous environment having a relatively fine horizontal resolution (2 km) and explicit microphysics. The results from these experiments indicate the importance of convectively -induced gravity waves on the MCS structure, propagation, longevity, and severe surface wind development. The sensitivity of the simulated convection and gravity waves to variations in the vertical wind shear and moisture profiles are described. Detailed Doppler radar analyses and 3-D simulations of a severe, bow echo squall line are presented which reveal

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Comparison and validation of full-scale data from wind measurements in the Cape Peninsula, South Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kruger, Andries C.; Goliger, Adam M.; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

2014-01-01

. These differences between the wind at the different locations are further complicated by the main strong wind mechanisms prevailing in the region, i.e. north-westerly winds from passing extratropical cyclones, mainly in the austral winter, and south-easterlies from ridging high-pressure systems, mainly...

Quantifying the Extremity of Windstorms for Regions Featuring Infrequent Events

Science.gov (United States)

Walz, M. A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Kruschke, T.; Rust, H.; Ulbrich, U.

2017-12-01

This paper introduces the Distribution-Independent Storm Severity Index (DI-SSI). The DI-SSI represents an approach to quantify the severity of exceptional surface wind speeds of large scale windstorms that is complementary to the Storm Severity Index (SSI) introduced by Leckebusch et al. (2008). While the SSI approaches the extremeness of a storm from a meteorological and potential loss (impact) perspective, the DI-SSI defines the severity in a more climatological perspective. The idea is to assign equal index values to wind speeds of the same singularity (e.g. the 99th percentile) under consideration of the shape of the tail of the local wind speed climatology. Especially in regions at the edge of the classical storm track the DI-SSI shows more equitable severity estimates, e.g. for the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus. Here were compare the integral severity indices for several prominent windstorm in the European domain and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the respective index. In order to compare the indices, their relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is studied, which is one of the main large scale drivers for the intensity of European windstorms. Additionally we can identify a significant relationship between the frequency and intensity of windstorms for large parts of the European domain.

Stratospheric H2O

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellsaesser, H.W.

1979-01-01

Documentation of the extreme aridity (approx. 3% relative humidity) of the lower stratosphere and the rapid decrease of mixing ratio with height just above the polar tropopause (20-fold in the 1st km) was begun by Dobson et al., (1946) in 1943. They recognized that this extreme and persistent aridity must be dynamically maintained else it would have been wiped out by turbulent diffusion. This led Brewer (1949) to hypothesize a stratospheric circulation in which all air enters through the tropical tropopause where it is freeze dried to a mass mixing ratio of 2 to 3 ppM. This dry air then spreads poleward and descends through the polar tropopauses overpowering upward transport of water vapor by diffusion which would otherwise be permitted by the much warmer temperatures of the polar tropopauses. Questions can indeed be raised as to the absolute magnitudes of stratospheric mixing ratios, the effective temperature of the tropical tropopause cold trap, the reality of winter pole freeze-dry sinks and the representativeness of the available observations suggesting an H 2 O mixing ratio maximum just above the tropical tropopause and a constant mixing ratio from the tropopause to 30 to 35 km. However, no model that better fits all of the available data is available, than does the Brewer (1949) hypothesis coupled with a lower stratosphere winter pole, freeze-dry sink, at least over Antarctica

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA INTERNET

Science.gov (United States)

the search's key words. Tide Predictions, Observations and Storm Surge Forecasts Near real-time Water , Extratropical Water Level Forecasts are available from the National Weather Service's Meteorological Development Laboratory. Status maps are provided to give the user a quick overview of a region. Forecasts of storm surge

The troposphere-to-stratosphere transition in kinetic energy spectra and nonlinear spectral fluxes as seen in ECMWF analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, A. B. H.; Erler, A. R.; Shepherd, T. G.

2012-04-01

We present spectra, nonlinear interaction terms, and fluxes computed for horizontal wind fields from high-resolution meteorological analyses made available by ECMWF for the International Polar Year. Total kinetic energy spectra clearly show two spectral regimes: a steep spectrum at large scales and a shallow spectrum in the mesoscale. The spectral shallowing appears at ~200 hPa, and is due to decreasing rotational power with height, which results in the shallower divergent spectrum dominating in the mesoscale. The spectra we find are steeper than those observed in aircraft data and GCM simulations. Though the analyses resolve total spherical harmonic wavenumbers up to n = 721, effects of dissipation on the fluxes and spectra are visible starting at about n = 200. We find a weak forward energy cascade and a downscale enstrophy cascade in the mesoscale. Eddy-eddy nonlinear kinetic energy transfers reach maximum amplitudes at the tropopause, and decrease with height thereafter; zonal mean-eddy transfers dominate in the stratosphere. In addition, zonal anisotropy reaches a minimum at the tropopause. Combined with strong eddy-eddy interactions, this suggests flow in the tropopause region is very active and bears the greatest resemblance to isotropic turbulence. We find constant enstrophy flux over a broad range of wavenumbers around the tropopause and in the upper stratosphere. A relatively constant spectral enstrophy flux at the tropopause suggests a turbulent inertial range, and that the enstrophy flux is resolved. A main result of our work is its implications for explaining the shallow mesoscale spectrum observed in aircraft wind measurements, GCM studies, and now meteorological analyses. The strong divergent component in the shallow mesoscale spectrum indicates unbalanced flow, and nonlinear transfers decreasing quickly with height are characteristic of waves, not turbulence. Together with the downscale flux of energ y through the shallow spectral range, these

Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

Science.gov (United States)

Gordov, E.; Shiklomanov, A.; Okladnikov, I.; Prusevich, A.; Titov, A.

2016-11-01

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far.

Consistent regional fluxes of CH4 and CO2 inferred from GOSAT proxy XCH4 : XCO2 retrievals, 2010-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Liang; Palmer, Paul I.; Bösch, Hartmut; Parker, Robert J.; Webb, Alex J.; Correia, Caio S. C.; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Domingues, Lucas G.; Feist, Dietrich G.; Gatti, Luciana V.; Gloor, Emanuel; Hase, Frank; Kivi, Rigel; Liu, Yi; Miller, John B.; Morino, Isamu; Sussmann, Ralf; Strong, Kimberly; Uchino, Osamu; Wang, Jing; Zahn, Andreas

2017-04-01

We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry and transport and an ensemble Kalman filter to simultaneously infer regional fluxes of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from GOSAT retrievals of XCH4 : XCO2, using sparse ground-based CH4 and CO2 mole fraction data to anchor the ratio. This work builds on the previously reported theory that takes into account that (1) these ratios are less prone to systematic error than either the full-physics data products or the proxy CH4 data products; and (2) the resulting CH4 and CO2 fluxes are self-consistent. We show that a posteriori fluxes inferred from the GOSAT data generally outperform the fluxes inferred only from in situ data, as expected. GOSAT CH4 and CO2 fluxes are consistent with global growth rates for CO2 and CH4 reported by NOAA and have a range of independent data including new profile measurements (0-7 km) over the Amazon Basin that were collected specifically to help validate GOSAT over this geographical region. We find that large-scale multi-year annual a posteriori CO2 fluxes inferred from GOSAT data are similar to those inferred from the in situ surface data but with smaller uncertainties, particularly over the tropics. GOSAT data are consistent with smaller peak-to-peak seasonal amplitudes of CO2 than either the a priori or in situ inversion, particularly over the tropics and the southern extratropics. Over the northern extratropics, GOSAT data show larger uptake than the a priori but less than the in situ inversion, resulting in small net emissions over the year. We also find evidence that the carbon balance of tropical South America was perturbed following the droughts of 2010 and 2012 with net annual fluxes not returning to an approximate annual balance until 2013. In contrast, GOSAT data significantly changed the a priori spatial distribution of CH4 emission with a 40 % increase over tropical South America and tropical Asia and a smaller decrease over Eurasia and temperate

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of

Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

Science.gov (United States)

Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

2017-12-01

Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2018-03-01

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given

Using satellite altimetry and tide gauges for storm surge warning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, O. B.; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

2014-01-01

of Australia. For both locations we have tried to investigate the possibilities and limitations of the use of satellite altimetry to capture high frequency signals (surges) using data from the past 20 years. The two regions are chosen to represent extra-tropical and tropical storm surge conditions. We have...

Assimilated ozone from EOS-Aura: Evaluation of the tropopause region and tropospheric columns

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stajner, I.; Wargan, K.; Pawson, S.; Hayashi, H.; Chang, L.-P.; Hudman, R.C.; Froidevaux, L.; Livesey, N.J.; Levelt, P.F.; Thompson, A.M.; Tarasick, D.W.; Stübi, R.; Andersen, S.B.; Yela, M.; König-Langlo, G.; Schmidlin, F.J.; Witte, J.C.

2008-01-01

Retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on EOS-Aura were included in the Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) ozone data assimilation system. The distribution and daily to seasonal evolution of ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere

Airborne Measurements of BrO and the Sum of HOBr and Br2 over the Tropical West Pacific from 1 to 15 Km During the CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Dexian; Huey, L. Gregory; Tanner, David J.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Anderson, Daniel C.; Wales, Pamela A.; Pan, Laura L.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Hornbrook, Rebecca S.; Apel, Eric C.;

Global-scale atmosphere monitoring by in-service aircraft – current achievements and future prospects of the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Petzold

2015-10-01

and aerosol particles in the UTLS, including the impacts of cross-tropopause transport, deep convection and lightning on the distribution of these species; characterisation of ice-supersaturated regions in the UTLS; and finally, improved understanding of the spatial distribution of upper tropospheric humidity including the finding that the UTLS is much more humid than previously assumed.

Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

2018-03-01

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

A 10-year Ground-Based Radar Climatology of Convective Penetration of Stratospheric Intrusions and Associated Large-Scale Transport over the CONUS

Science.gov (United States)

Homeyer, C. R.

2017-12-01

Deep convection reaching the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and its impact on atmospheric composition through rapid vertical transport of lower troposphere air and stratosphere-troposphere exchange has received increasing attention in the past 5-10 years. Most efforts focused on convection have been directed toward storms that reach and/or penetrate the coincident environmental lapse-rate tropopause. However, convection has also been shown to reach into large-scale stratospheric intrusions (depressions of stratospheric air lying well below the lapse-rate tropopause on the cyclonic side of upper troposphere jet streams). Such convective penetration of stratospheric intrusions is not captured by studies of lapse-rate tropopause-penetrating convection. In this presentation, it will be shown using hourly, high-quality mergers of ground-based radar observations from 2004 to 2013 in the contiguous United States (CONUS) and forward large-scale trajectory analysis that convective penetration of stratospheric intrusions: 1) is more frequent than lapse-rate tropopause-penetrating convection, 2) occurs over a broader area of the CONUS than lapse-rate tropopause-penetrating convection, and 3) can influence the composition of the lower stratosphere through large-scale advection of convectively influenced air to altitudes above the lapse-rate tropopause, which we find to occur for about 8.5% of the intrusion volumes reached by convection.

Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release

Science.gov (United States)

Glinton, Michael R.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Chagnon, Jeffrey M.; Morcrette, Cyril J.

2017-03-01

Although many theoretical and observational studies have investigated the mechanism of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release and associated it with mesoscale atmospheric phenomena such as frontal precipitation bands, cloud heads in rapidly developing extratropical cyclones and sting jets, its climatology and contribution to precipitation have not been extensively documented. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of CSI release, yielding slantwise convection, to climatological precipitation accumulations for the North Atlantic and western Europe. Case studies reveal that CSI release could be common along cold fronts of mature extratropical cyclones and the North Atlantic storm track is found to be a region with large CSI according to two independent CSI metrics. Correlations of CSI with accumulated precipitation are also large in this region and CSI release is inferred to be occurring about 20% of the total time over depths of over 1 km. We conclude that the inability of current global weather forecast and climate prediction models to represent CSI release (due to insufficient resolution yet lack of subgrid parametrization schemes) may lead to errors in precipitation distributions, particularly in the region of the North Atlantic storm track.

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

14-7 ii Abstract The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor’easters...Products and Services, excluding any kind of high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling. Tropical and extratropical storms were treated as a single...joint probability analysis and high-fidelity modeling of tropical and extratropical storms

An isoline separating relatively warm from relatively cool wintertime forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

J. Wickham; T.G. Wade; K.H. Riitters

2014-01-01

Forest-oriented climate mitigation policies promote forestation as a means to increase uptake of atmospheric carbon to counteract global warming. Some have pointed out that a carbon-centric forest policy may be overstated because it discounts biophysical aspects of the influence of forests on climate. In extra-tropical regions, many climate models have shown that...

Low Ozone over Europe Doesn't Mean the Sky Is Falling, Its Actually Rising

Science.gov (United States)

Strahan, Susan; Newman, Paul; Steenrod, Stephen

2016-01-01

Data Sources: NASA Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) (O3 profiles and columns), NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry and Transport Model (calculated O3depletion), and MERRA Tropopause Heights. Technical Description of Figures: The left graphics show MLS northern hemisphere stratospheric column ozone on Feb. 1, 2016. Very low columns are seen over the UK and Europe (<225 DU, inside dashed circle). The lower graphic shows the GMI-calculated O3 depletion. It's very small, suggesting the low O3 does not indicate significant depletion. The right graphics show how the high tropopause height in this region explains the observed low ozone. The lower panel shows that the high tropopause on Feb. 1 lifts the O3 profile compared to a typical profile found earlier in winter. This motion lifts the profile to lower pressures thus reducing the total column. The GMI Model shows only 4 Dobson Units (DU) of O3 depletion even though the column is more than 100 DU lower than one month earlier. Scientific significant and societal relevance: To quantitatively understand anthropogenic impacts to the stratospheric ozone layer, we must be able to distinguish between low ozone caused by ozone depleting substances and that caused by natural dynamical variability in the atmosphere. Observations and realistic simulations of atmospheric composition are both required in order to separate natural and anthropogenic ozone variability.

Characteristics of different convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of intensity and track of severe extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, P. K.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ferreira, Juan A.; Dasamsetti, S.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

2018-01-01

The role of the convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the ARW-WRF (WRF) mesoscale model is examined for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of very severe winter storms such as Xynthia (2010) and Gong (2013) are considered in this study. Most popular CPSs within WRF model, along with Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and WSM6 microphysical parameterization schemes are incorporated for the model experiments. For each storm, four numerical experiments were carried out using New Kain Fritsch (NKF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (Gr3D) and no convection scheme (NCS) respectively. The prime objectives of these experiments were to recognize the best CPS that can forecast the intensity, track, and landfall over the Iberian Peninsula in advance of two days. The WRF model results such as central sea level pressure (CSLP), wind field, moisture flux convergence, geopotential height, jet stream, track and precipitation have shown sensitivity CPSs. The 48-hour lead simulations with BMJ schemes produce the best simulations both regarding ETCs intensity and track than Gr3D and NKF schemes. The average MAE and RMSE of intensities are least that (6.5 hPa in CSLP and 3.4 ms- 1 in the 10-m wind) found in BMJ scheme. The MAE and RMSE for and intensity and track error have revealed that NCS produces large errors than other CPSs experiments. However, for track simulation of these ETCs, at 72-, 48- and 24-hour means track errors were 440, 390 and 158 km respectively. In brevity, BMJ and Gr3D schemes can be used for short and medium range predictions of the ETCs over North Atlantic. For the evaluation of precipitation distributions using Gr3D scheme are good agreement with TRMM satellite than other CPSs.

The Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances from a finite-sized ensemble, they...diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances...sensitivities can be used successfully to diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms (Torn and Hakim 2008), extratropical transition (Torn and

Infrared radiation parameterizations for the minor CO2 bands and for several CFC bands in the window region

Science.gov (United States)

Kratz, David P.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Yan, Michael M.-H.

1993-01-01

Fast and accurate parameterizations have been developed for the transmission functions of the CO2 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands, as well as the CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-22 bands located in the 8-12-micron region. The parameterizations are based on line-by-line calculations of transmission functions for the CO2 bands and on high spectral resolution laboratory measurements of the absorption coefficients for the CFC bands. Also developed are the parameterizations for the H2O transmission functions for the corresponding spectral bands. Compared to the high-resolution calculations, fluxes at the tropopause computed with the parameterizations are accurate to within 10 percent when overlapping of gas absorptions within a band is taken into account. For individual gas absorption, the accuracy is of order 0-2 percent. The climatic effects of these trace gases have been studied using a zonally averaged multilayer energy balance model, which includes seasonal cycles and a simplified deep ocean. With the trace gas abundances taken to follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Low Emissions 'B' scenario, the transient response of the surface temperature is simulated for the period 1900-2060.

Impact of the basic state and MJO representation on MJO Pacific teleconnections in GCMs

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, S. A.; Maloney, E. D.; Son, S. W.

2017-12-01

Teleconnection patterns induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known to significantly alter extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, accurate MJO representation has been difficult for many General Circulation Models (GCMs). Furthermore, many GCMs contain large basic state biases. These issues present challenges to the simulation of MJO teleconnections and, in turn, their associated extratropical impacts. This study examines the impacts of basic state quality and MJO representation on the quality of MJO teleconnection patterns in GCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Results suggest that GCMs assessed to have a good MJO but with large basic state biases have similarly low skill in reproducing MJO teleconnections as GCMs with poor MJO representation. In the good MJO models examined, poor teleconnection quality is associated with large errors in the zonal extent of the Pacific subtropical jet. Whereas the horizontal structure of MJO heating in the Indo-Pacific region is found to have modest impacts on the teleconnection patterns, results suggest that MJO heating east of the dateline can alter the teleconnection pattern characteristics over North America. These findings suggest that in order to accurately simulate the MJO teleconnection patterns and associated extratropical impacts, both the MJO and the basic state must be well represented.

Characteristics of cyclones causing extreme sea levels in the northern Baltic Sea** The study was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT20-11 and Grant ETF9134 and by the EU Regional Development Foundation, Environmental Conservation and Environmental Technology R&D Programme Project No. 3.2.0801.12-0044.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piia Post

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The basic parameters of extra-tropical cyclones in the northern Baltic are examined in relation to extreme sea level events at Estonian coastal stations between 1948 and 2010. The hypothesis that extreme sea level events might be caused not by one intense extra-tropical cyclone, as suggested by earlier researchers, but by the temporal clustering of cyclones in a certain trajectory corridor, is tested. More detailed analysis of atmospheric conditions at the time of the two most extreme cases support this concept: the sequence of 5 cyclones building up the extreme sea level within about 10 days was very similar in structure and periodicity.

Material Transport In The Inner Shelf Of The Northern Gulf Of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

portion of the WFS. Cold fronts associated with strong winter extratropical storms , also referred to as Cold Air Outbreaks (CAO), propagate west to...coastline in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with both field observations and a numerical model simulation. In response to these extratropical storms ...and spring, extratropical cold air outbreaks frequently pass from the north, northwest across the nearly latitudinal coastline and experiment site

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS-08

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-30

cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly- developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm -, or hurricane-force winds...there is a need to improve understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. The structural evolution...of the transition from a tropical to an extratropical circulation involves rapid changes to the wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns that

High-Altitude Cirrus Clouds and Climate

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2002-12-03

Dec 3, 2002 ... One year later Luke Howard, an English naturalist, developed a ... o to 2 km found below the tropopause. The base of these clouds vary greatly with respect to .... and cirrostratus clouds, generally below the tropopause level,.

Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea Level Rise/Coastal Inundation Extremes Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands

Science.gov (United States)

2015-07-14

in mean sea level, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other modes of natural variability, tropical and extratropical storms , and unusually high...parameter) and changes in typical ( extratropical ) storm track (scale parameter) need to be explored as does the applicability of customized climate...mean sea level over decades to months; tropical and extratropical storms , and swell from distant storms that manifest as events lasting hours to

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-01

secondary terms • integration of joint probability of storm responses, including extratropical events. A diagram summarizing the JPM methodology is... Extratropical Cyclones. The GPD- based approach defined above was used to compute the final storm response statistics for XCs. ERDC/CHL TR-15-5 39...from the numerical modeling of all storms , tropical and extratropical . As discussed in Section 2.1.2, JPM methodology generally consists of the

Comprehensive Condition Survey and Storm Waves, Circulation, and Sediment Study, Dana Point Harbor, California

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

waters; 3) west to northwest local sea; 4) prefrontal local sea; 5) tropical storm swell; and 6) extratropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere...14-13 58 Prefrontal local sea The coastal zone within the south Orange County area is vulnerable under extratropical winter storm conditions (a...wave characteristics for severe extratropical storms during the 39 yr time period (1970–2008) are comparable to peak storm wave heights that were

Atmospheric phenomena deduced from radiosonde and GPS ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The tropopause height and tropopause temperature are sensitive to temperature changes in troposphere and stratosphere. These are the measures of global climatic variability. Atmospheric profiles of temperature, refractivity and water vapour are always needed for communication, navigation and atmospheric modeling ...

Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2004-09-01

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

The Impacts of Multiple Simultaneous Climate Variations

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

in the ITCZ and SPCZ, and between the subtropical high and subpolar lows where the extratropical storm tracks occur. Lower PR values tend to occur...especially over and near the maritime continent and Amazon, in the ITCZ and SPCZ, and in the extratropical storm tracks over the North Pacific and...gradient and low tropospheric winds are strong (cf. Figure 9)—for example, between the subtropical highs and subpolar lows where the extratropical storm

Communicating Coastal Risk Analysis in an Age of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

extratropical storm systems); the geometry and geomorphology of the area (regional and local bathymetry and topography, including rivers, marshes, and...at risk from coastal hazards including storm surge inundation, precipitation driven flooding, waves, and coastal erosion. This population segment...will likely be exposed to increased risk as impacts of a changing climate are felt through elevated sea levels and potentially increased storm

SAM II aerosol profile measurements, Poker Flat, Alaska; July 16-19, 1979

Science.gov (United States)

Mccormick, M. P.; Chu, W. P.; Mcmaster, L. R.; Grams, G. W.; Herman, B. M.; Pepin, T. J.; Russell, P. B.; Swissler, T. J.

1981-01-01

SAM II satellite measurements during the July 1979 Poker Flat mission, yielded an aerosol extinction coefficient of 0.0004/km at 1.0 micron wavelength, in the region of the stratospheric aerosol mixing ratio peak (12-16 km). The stratospheric aerosol optical depth for these data, calculated from the tropopause through 30 km, is approximately 0.001. These results are consistent with the average 1979 summertime values found throughout the Arctic.

Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Turco, Richard P.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando R.

2008-01-01

We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25–45% at midlatitudes, and 50–70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or <220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical “ozone hole.” The resulting increases in UV radiation could impact the biota significantly, including serious consequences for human health. The primary cause for the dramatic and persistent ozone depletion is heating of the stratosphere by smoke, which strongly absorbs solar radiation. The smoke-laden air rises to the upper stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow, so that much of the stratosphere is ultimately heated by the localized smoke injections. Higher stratospheric temperatures accelerate catalytic reaction cycles, particularly those of odd-nitrogen, which destroy ozone. In addition, the strong convection created by rising smoke plumes alters the stratospheric circulation, redistributing ozone and the sources of ozone-depleting gases, including N2O and chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone losses predicted here are significantly greater than previous “nuclear winter/UV spring” calculations, which did not adequately represent stratospheric plume rise. Our results point to previously unrecognized mechanisms for stratospheric ozone depletion. PMID:18391218

Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

2018-03-01

This study aims to determine the role of the tropical ocean dynamics in the response of the climate to extratropical thermal forcing. We analyse and compare the outcomes of coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with two ocean models of different complexity. In the first configuration the AGCM is coupled with a slab ocean model while in the second a reduced gravity ocean (RGO) model is additionally coupled in the tropical region. We find that the imposition of extratropical thermal forcing (warming in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere with zero global mean) produces, in terms of annual means, a weaker response when the RGO is coupled, thus indicating that the tropical ocean dynamics oppose the incoming remote signal. On the other hand, while the slab ocean coupling does not produce significant changes to the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle, the RGO configuration generates strong warming in the central-eastern basin from April to August balanced by cooling during the rest of the year, strengthening the seasonal cycle in the eastern portion of the basin. We hypothesize that such changes are possible via the dynamical effect that zonal wind stress has on the thermocline depth. We also find that the imposed extratropical pattern affects El Niño-Southern Oscillation, weakening its amplitude and low-frequency behaviour.

Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Hein

Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

Tropical influence on boreal summer mid-latitude stationary waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Douville, Herve [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); CNRM/GMGEC/VDR, Toulouse (France); Bielli, S.; Deque, M.; Tyteca, S.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); Cassou, C. [CNRS-Cerfacs, Toulouse (France); Hall, N.M.J. [CNES/LEGOS, Toulouse (France)

2011-11-15

While organized tropical convection is a well-known source of extratropical planetary waves, state-of-the-art climate models still show serious deficiencies in simulating accurately the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the associated teleconnections. In the present study, the remote influence of the tropical atmospheric circulation is evaluated in ensembles of global boreal summer simulations in which the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain. Sensitivity tests to the experimental design are first conducted using prescribed climatological SST. They show that the tropical relaxation does not improve the zonal mean extratropical climatology but does lead to a significantly improved representation of the mid-latitude stationary waves in both hemispheres. Low-pass filtering of the relaxation fields has no major effect on the model response, suggesting that high-frequency tropical variability is not responsible for extratropical biases. Dividing the nudging strength by a factor 10 only decreases the magnitude of the response. Model errors in each monsoon domain contribute to deficiencies in the model's mid-latitude climatology, although an exaggerated large-scale subsidence in the central equatorial Pacific appears as the main source of errors for the representation of stationary waves in the Arpege-Climat model. Case studies are then conducted using either climatological or observed SST. The focus is first on summer 2003 characterized by a strong and persistent anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe. This pattern is more realistic in nudging experiments than in simulations only driven by observed SST, especially when the nudging domain is centred over Central America. Other case studies also show a significant tropical forcing of the summer mid-latitude stationary waves

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Regional difference of the start time of the recent warming in Eastern China: prompted by a 165-year temperature record deduced from tree rings in the Dabie Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Qiufang; Liu, Yu; Duan, Bingchuang; Sun, Changfeng

2018-03-01

Tree-ring studies from tropical to subtropical regions are rarer than that from extratropical regions, which greatly limit our understanding of some critical climate change issues. Based on the tree-ring-width chronology of samples collected from the Dabie Mountains, we reconstructed the April-June mean temperature for this region with an explained variance of 46.8%. Five cold (1861-1869, 1889-1899, 1913-1920, 1936-1942 and 1952-1990) and three warm (1870-1888, 1922-1934 and 2000-2005) periods were identified in the reconstruction. The reconstruction not only agreed well with the instrumental records in and around the study area, but also showed good resemblance to previous temperature reconstructions from nearby regions, indicating its spatial and temporal representativeness of the temperature variation in the central part of eastern China. Although no secular warming trend was found, the warming trend since 1970 was unambiguous in the Dabie Mountains (0.064 °C/year). Further temperature comparison indicated that the start time of the recent warming in eastern China was regional different. It delayed gradually from north to south, starting at least around 1940 AD in the north part, around 1970 AD in the central part and around 1980s in the south part. This work enriches the high-resolution temperature reconstructions in eastern China. We expect that climate warming in the future would promote the radial growth of alpine Pinus taiwanensis in the subtropical areas of China, therefore promote the carbon capture and carbon storage in the Pinus taiwanensis forest. It also helps to clarify the regional characteristic of recent warming in eastern China.

Utility of CrIS/ATMS profiles to diagnose extratropical transition

OpenAIRE

Emily Berndt; Michael Folmer

2018-01-01

Anticipating changes in hurricane intensity can be challenging in data sparse regions of the North Atlantic Ocean. Hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles have the potential to provide a wealth of information about the vertical structure of thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere such as temperature and moisture which can impact hurricane intensity. Increased forecaster situational awareness and identification of moist or dry layers in the near-storm environment can indicate impendi...

Impact of geographic variations of the convective and dehydration center on stratospheric water vapor over the Asian monsoon region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of water vapor in the lower stratosphere (LS during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of the dehydration center, of which the influence is comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest Asian monsoon region. Although the convective center is located over Southeast Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwest Asia monsoon region increases local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air masses entering the LS are dehydrated at relatively warmer temperatures. Due to warmer dehydration temperatures, anomalously moist air enters the LS and moves eastward along the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the Southeast Asia monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On a seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating marching towards the northwest Asia monsoon region from June to August. The

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharin, V.V.

1994-01-01

Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

Impact of land convection on troposphere-stratosphere exchange in the tropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ricaud

2007-11-01

Full Text Available The mechanism of troposphere-stratosphere exchange in the tropics was investigated from space-borne observations of the horizontal distributions of tropospheric-origin long-lived species, nitrous oxide (N₂O, methane (CH₄ and carbon monoxide (CO, from 150 to 70 hPa in March-April-May by the ODIN/Sub-Millimeter Radiometer (SMR, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS/Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE and the TERRA/Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT instruments in 2002–2004, completed by recent observations of the AURA/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS instrument during the same season in 2005. The vertical resolution of the satellite measurements ranges from 2 to 4 km. The analysis has been performed on isentropic surfaces: 400 K (lower stratosphere for all the species and 360 K (upper troposphere only for CO. At 400 K (and 360 K for CO, all gases show significant longitudinal variations with peak-to-trough values of ~5–11 ppbv for N₂O, 0.07–0.13 ppmv for CH₄, and ~10 ppbv for CO (~40 ppbv at 360 K. The maximum amounts are primarily located over Africa and, depending on the species, secondary more or less pronounced maxima are reported above northern South America and South-East Asia. The lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific deep convective region where the outgoing longwave radiation is the lowest, the tropopause the highest and the coldest, appears as a region of minimum concentration of tropospheric trace species. The possible impact on trace gas concentration at the tropopause of the inhomogeneous distribution and intensity of the sources, mostly continental, of the horizontal and vertical transports in the troposphere, and of cross-tropopause transport was explored with the MOCAGE Chemistry Transport Model. In the simulations, significant longitudinal variations were found on the medium-lived CO (2-month lifetime with peak-to-trough value of ~20 ppbv at 360 K and

Martian extratropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, G. E.; James, P. B.

1979-01-01

Physical properties of summer-season baroclinic waves on Mars are discussed on the basis of vidicon images and infrared thermal mapping generated by Viking Orbiter 1. The two northern-hemisphere storm systems examined here appear to be similar to terrestrial mid-latitude cyclonic storms. The Martian storm clouds are probably composed of water ice, rather than dust or CO2 ice particles.

Hydration of the lower stratosphere by ice crystal geysers over land convective systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Khaykin

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The possible impact of deep convective overshooting over land has been explored by six simultaneous soundings of water vapour, particles and ozone in the lower stratosphere next to Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs during the monsoon season over West Africa in Niamey, Niger in August 2006. The water vapour measurements were carried out using a fast response FLASH-B Lyman-alpha hygrometer. The high vertical resolution observations of the instrument show the presence of accumulation of enhanced water vapour layers between the tropopause at 370 K and the 420 K level. Most of these moist layers are shown connected with overshooting events occurring upwind as identified from satellite IR images over which the air mass probed by the sondes passed during the three previous days. In the case of a local overshoot identified by echo top turrets above the tropopause by the MIT C-band radar also in Niamey, tight coincidence was found between enhanced water vapour, ice crystal and ozone dip layers indicative of fast uplift of tropospheric air across the tropopause. The water vapour mixing ratio in the enriched layers exceeds frequently by 1–3 ppmv the average 6 ppmv saturation ratio at the tropopause and by up to 7 ppmv in the extreme case of local storm in coincidence with the presence of ice crystals. The presence of such layers strongly suggests hydration of the lower stratosphere by geyser-like injection of ice particles over overshooting turrets. The pile-like increase of water vapour up to 19 km seen by the high-resolution hygrometer during the season of maximum temperature of the tropopause, suggests that the above hydration mechanism may contribute to the summer maximum moisture in the lower stratosphere. If this interpretation is correct, hydration by ice geysers across the tropopause might be an important contributor to the stratospheric water vapour budget.

A Further Examination of Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-01

a successful means of determining forecast error in synoptic storms (Hakim and Torn 2008), storms undergoing extratropical transition (Torn and...677. Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, 2009: Initial condition sensitivity of Western-Pacific extratropical transitions determined using ensemble-based

Investigating the global transport of trace species and the stratoshere-troposphere-exchange with the Lagrangian model ECHAM4/ATTILA; Untersuchungen zum globalen Spurenstofftransport und Stratosphaeren-Troposphaeren-Austausch mit dem Lagrangeschen Modell ECHAM4/ATTILA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reithmeier, C.

2001-07-01

Investigating the chemical composition of the atmosphere and its influence on the global climate involves a large number of trace species. Therefore, the Lagrangian transport scheme ATTILA has been developed in this thesis. ATTILA runs online in the general circulation model ECHAM4 and, thus, can be used efficiently for studies involving many tracers. The present study discusses the problems which arise when applying Lagrangian methods on long range and global scale, and describes in detail the solutions developed for ATTILA. Transport experiments with both short-lived and long-lived tracers clearly show that ATTILA is numerically much less diffusive than the operational semi-Lagrangian scheme of ECHAM. It could be shown that the enhanced meridional transport in the tropopause region and the overestimated downward flux through the tropopause in ECHAM are rather due to the numerical properties of the semi-Lagrangian scheme than due to an incorrect circulation. Furthermore, the stratospheric dynamics has been investigated in this study by analysing trajectories and by calculating age spectra and mass fluxes. (orig.)

Global pictures of the ozone field from high altitudes from DE-I

Science.gov (United States)

Keating, G. M.; Frank, L.; Craven, J.; Shapiro, M.; Young, D.; Bhartia, P.

1982-01-01

Detailed synoptic views of the column ozone field can be obtained by the Spin-Scan Ozone Imager (SOI) (Keating et al., 1981) aboard the Dynamics Explorer I satellite. The eccentric polar orbit with an apogee altitude of 23,000 km allows high resolution global-scale images to be obtained within 12 minutes, and allows regions to be viewed for long periods of time. At perigee, a pixel size of nadir measurements of 3 km is possible, and measurements are determined using the backscattered ultraviolet technique. A wavelength measurement of 317.5 nm is used as there are limitations in filter locations and it allows comparison with Nimbus 7 SBUV/TOMS data. Consideration of the reflectivities of this data aids in checking the SOI data reduction algorithm. SOI data show short-term (less than one day) variations in the observed ozone field, and a negative correlation (greater than 0.9) between ozone and tropopause heights. It is expected, due to this correlation, that SOI data will aid in understanding the time evolution of dynamics near the tropopause.

Development and application of a chemistry mechanism for mesoscale simulations of the troposphere and lower stratosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lippert, E.; Hendricks, J.; Petry, H. [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

1997-12-31

A new chemical mechanism is applied for mesoscale simulations of the impact of aircraft exhausts on the atmospheric composition. The temporal and spatial variation of the tropopause height is associated with a change of the trace gas composition in these heights. Box and three dimensional mesoscale model studies show that the conversion of aircraft exhausts depends strongly on the cruise heights as well as on the location of release in relation to the tropopause. The impact of aircraft emissions on ozone is strongly dependent on the individual meteorological situation. A rising of the tropopause height within a few days results in a strong increase of ozone caused by aircraft emissions. (author) 12 refs.

Development and application of a chemistry mechanism for mesoscale simulations of the troposphere and lower stratosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lippert, E; Hendricks, J; Petry, H [Cologne Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology

1998-12-31

A new chemical mechanism is applied for mesoscale simulations of the impact of aircraft exhausts on the atmospheric composition. The temporal and spatial variation of the tropopause height is associated with a change of the trace gas composition in these heights. Box and three dimensional mesoscale model studies show that the conversion of aircraft exhausts depends strongly on the cruise heights as well as on the location of release in relation to the tropopause. The impact of aircraft emissions on ozone is strongly dependent on the individual meteorological situation. A rising of the tropopause height within a few days results in a strong increase of ozone caused by aircraft emissions. (author) 12 refs.

An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, P.; Karoly, D. J.; Newmann, P. A.; Clarkson, T. S.; Matthews, W. A.

1992-07-01

Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

The role and production of polar/subtropical jet superpositions in two high-impact weather events over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Winters, Andrew C.

Careful observational work has demonstrated that the tropopause is typically characterized by a three-step pole-to-equator structure, with each break between steps in the tropopause height associated with a jet stream. While the two jet streams, the polar and subtropical jets, typically occupy different latitude bands, their separation can occasionally vanish, resulting in a vertical superposition of the two jets. A cursory examination of a number of historical and recent high-impact weather events over North America and the North Atlantic indicates that superposed jets can be an important component of their evolution. Consequently, this dissertation examines two recent jet superposition cases, the 18--20 December 2009 Mid-Atlantic Blizzard and the 1--3 May 2010 Nashville Flood, in an effort (1) to determine the specific influence that a superposed jet can have on the development of a high-impact weather event and (2) to illuminate the processes that facilitated the production of a superposition in each case. An examination of these cases from a basic-state variable and PV inversion perspective demonstrates that elements of both the remote and local synoptic environment are important to consider while diagnosing the development of a jet superposition. Specifically, the process of jet superposition begins with the remote production of a cyclonic (anticyclonic) tropopause disturbance at high (low) latitudes. The cyclonic circulation typically originates at polar latitudes, while organized tropical convection can encourage the development of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly within the tropical upper-troposphere. The concurrent advection of both anomalies towards middle latitudes subsequently allows their individual circulations to laterally displace the location of the individual tropopause breaks. Once the two circulation anomalies position the polar and subtropical tropopause breaks in close proximity to one another, elements within the local environment, such as

Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes: first results

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Gordov, Evgeny; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Okladinikov, Igor; Prusevich, Alex; Titov, Alexander

2016-04-01

Description and first results of the cooperative project "Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes" recently started by SCERT IMCES and ESRC UNH are reported. The project is aimed at development of hardware and software platform prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes over the areas of mutual interest and demonstration the benefits of such collaboration that complements skills and regional knowledge across the northern extratropics. In the framework of the project, innovative approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platforms of two U.S. and Russian leading institutions involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research centers focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies by international research teams. DRC under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed by the cooperating teams' information-computational systems RIMS (http://rims.unh.edu) and CLIMATE(http://climate.scert.ru/), which are widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The project includes several major directions of research (Tasks) listed below. 1. Development of architecture and defining major hardware and software components of DRC for monitoring and projecting of regional environmental changes. 2. Development of an information database and computing software suite for distributed processing and analysis of large geospatial data hosted at ESRC and IMCES SB RAS. 3. Development of geoportal, thematic web client and web services providing international research teams with an access to "cloud" computing resources at DRC; two options will be executed: access through a basic graphical web browser and

Tracers and traceability: implementing the cirrus parameterisation from LACM in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT chemistry transport model as an example of the application of quality assurance to legacy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Horseman

2010-03-01

Full Text Available A new modelling tool for the investigation of large-scale behaviour of cirrus clouds has been developed. This combines two existing models, the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT chemistry transport model (nupdate library version 0.80, script mpc346_l and cirrus parameterisation of Ren and MacKenzie (LACM implementation not versioned. The development process employed a subset of best-practice software engineering and quality assurance processes, selected to be viable for small-scale projects whilst maintaining the same traceability objectives. The application of the software engineering and quality control processes during the development has been shown to be not a great overhead, and their use has been of benefit to the developers as well as the end users of the results. We provide a step-by-step guide to the implementation of traceability tailored to the production of geo-scientific research software, as distinct from commercial and operational software. Our recommendations include: maintaining a living "requirements list"; explicit consideration of unit, integration and acceptance testing; and automated revision/configuration control, including control of analysis tool scripts and programs.

Initial testing of the resulting model against satellite and in-situ measurements has been promising. The model produces representative results for both spatial distribution of the frequency of occurrence of cirrus ice, and the drying of air as it moves across the tropical tropopause. The model is now ready for more rigorous quantitative testing, but will require the addition of a vertical wind velocity downscaling scheme to better represent extra-tropical continental cirrus.

Extratropical response to Fast and Slow episodes of Madden-Julian Oscillation in observation and using intervention experiments with CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, P.; Straus, D. M.

2017-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a potential source of predictability in the extratropics in extended range weather forecasting. The nature of MJO is sporadic and therefore, the mid-latitude response may depend on the nature of the MJO event, in particular the phase speed. We discuss the results of our observational and modeling study of mid-latitude circulation response to Fast and Slow MJO episodes using wintertime ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the CFSv2 coupled model of NOAA. The observational study shows that the mid-latitude response to different propagating speeds is not the same. The propagation speed is defined by the time the OLR takes to propagate from phase 3 to phase 6. The mid-latitude response is assessed in terms of composite maps and frequency of occurrence of robust circulation regimes. Fast episode composite anomalies of 500hPa height show a developing Rossby wave in the mid-Pacific with downstream propagation through MJO phases 2- 4. Development of NAO+ teleconnection pattern is stronger in Slow that in Fast MJO episodes, and occurs with a greater time lag after MJO heating is in the Indian Ocean (phase 3). Previous results find an increase in occurrence of NAO- regime following phase 6. We have found that much of this behavior is due to the slow episodes. Based on these observational results, intervention experiments using CFSv2 are designed to better understand the impact of heating/cooling and to estimate mid-latitude response to Fast and Slow MJO episodes. The added heating experiments consist of 31 year reforecasts for December 1 initial conditions from CFS reanalysis (1980-2011) in which the identical MJO evolution of three-dimensional diabatic heating has been added, thus producing fast and slow MJO episodes with well-defined phase speeds. We will discuss the results of these experiments with a focus on understanding the role of phase speed and interference in setting up the response, and to understand the mechanisms that

Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part I: reference simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Trentmann

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Wildland fires in boreal regions have the potential to initiate deep convection, so-called pyro-convection, due to their release of sensible heat. Under favorable atmospheric conditions, large fires can result in pyro-convection that transports the emissions into the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Here, we present three-dimensional model simulations of the injection of fire emissions into the lower stratosphere by pyro-convection. These model simulations are constrained and evaluated with observations obtained from the Chisholm fire in Alberta, Canada, in 2001. The active tracer high resolution atmospheric model (ATHAM is initialized with observations obtained by radiosonde. Information on the fire forcing is obtained from ground-based observations of the mass and moisture of the burned fuel. Based on radar observations, the pyro-convection reached an altitude of about 13 km, well above the tropopause, which was located at about 11.2 km. The model simulation yields a similarly strong convection with an overshoot of the convection above the tropopause. The main outflow from the pyro-convection occurs at about 10.6 km, but a significant fraction (about 8% of the emitted mass of the smoke aerosol is transported above the tropopause. In contrast to regular convection, the region with maximum updraft velocity in the pyro-convection is located close to the surface above the fire. This results in high updraft velocities >10 m s−1 at cloud base. The temperature anomaly in the plume decreases rapidly with height from values above 50 K at the fire to about 5 K at about 3000 m above the fire. While the sensible heat released from the fire is responsible for the initiation of convection in the model, the release of latent heat from condensation and freezing dominates the overall energy budget. Emissions of water vapor from the fire do not significantly contribute to the energy budget of the convection.

Frequently Asked Questions - Naval Oceanography Portal

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(statistics)? A: Forecast performance is calculated following a thorough post-storm review of all available cyclone with an estimated intensity between 34 and 63 knots is designated a "Tropical Storm." - Extratropical ETT - Extratropical Transition FT - Final T-Number (Dvorak) IR - Infrared satellite imagery KT

Utility of CrIS/ATMS profiles to diagnose extratropical transition

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily; Folmer, Michael

2018-03-01

Anticipating changes in hurricane intensity can be challenging in data sparse regions of the North Atlantic Ocean. Hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles have the potential to provide a wealth of information about the vertical structure of thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere such as temperature and moisture which can impact hurricane intensity. Increased forecaster situational awareness and identification of moist or dry layers in the near-storm environment can indicate impending changes in storm intensity. This investigation demonstrates the utility and value of hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles to diagnose thermodynamic characteristics of the near-storm environment to anticipate changes in hurricane intensity.

Dynamics and composition of the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Schlager, Hans; Baumann, Robert; Sinh Cai, Duy; Eyring, Veronika; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick; Jurkat-Witschas, Tina; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

2018-04-01

This study places HALO research aircraft observations in the upper-tropospheric Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) into the context of regional, intra-annual variability by hindcasts with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. The observations were obtained during the Earth System Model Validation (ESMVal) campaign in September 2012. Observed and simulated tracer-tracer relations reflect photochemical O3 production as well as in-mixing from the lower troposphere and the tropopause layer. The simulations demonstrate that tropospheric trace gas profiles in the monsoon season are distinct from those in the rest of the year, and the measurements reflect the main processes acting throughout the monsoon season. Net photochemical O3 production is significantly enhanced in the ASMA, where uplifted precursors meet increased NOx, mainly produced by lightning. An analysis of multiple monsoon seasons in the simulation shows that stratospherically influenced tropopause layer air is regularly entrained at the eastern ASMA flank and then transported in the southern fringe around the interior region. Radial transport barriers of the circulation are effectively overcome by subseasonal dynamical instabilities of the anticyclone, which occur quite frequently and are of paramount importance for the trace gas composition of the ASMA. Both the isentropic entrainment of O3-rich air and the photochemical conversion of uplifted O3-poor air tend to increase O3 in the ASMA outflow.

Statistics and Dynamics of Aircraft Encounters of Turbulence over Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

2009-08-01

America and Europe , and turbulence above Greenland is the fo- cus of this study. Turbulence derived from interactions with terrain and mountain waves can...Seasonal variations in the large- scale circulation (viz., storm tracks) will modify the frequency of occurrence of cyclones. Such variations coupled with...Greenland’s southern tip is from the southeast quadrant. The passage of extratropical cyclones to the south of the turbulent regions is one source of low

Utility of CrIS/ATMS profiles to diagnose extratropical transition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Berndt

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Anticipating changes in hurricane intensity can be challenging in data sparse regions of the North Atlantic Ocean. Hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles have the potential to provide a wealth of information about the vertical structure of thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere such as temperature and moisture which can impact hurricane intensity. Increased forecaster situational awareness and identification of moist or dry layers in the near-storm environment can indicate impending changes in storm intensity. This investigation demonstrates the utility and value of hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles to diagnose thermodynamic characteristics of the near-storm environment to anticipate changes in hurricane intensity. Keywords: Hurricane, Sounding, Satellite

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are . P., and A. Kumar, 2000: Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986-1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6, 595-616. Ropelewski, C. F

Diurnal variation of tropospheric temperature at a tropical station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Revathy

2001-08-01

Full Text Available The vertical velocity in the troposphere-lower stratosphere region measured using MST radar has been utilized to evaluate the temperature profile in the region. The diurnal variation of the tropospheric temperature on one day in August 1998 at the tropical station Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E has been studied using the MST radar technique. The diurnal variation of the temperature revealed a prominent diurnal variation with the peak in the afternoon hours increasingly delayed in altitude. The tropopause temperature and altitude exhibited a clear diurnal cycle.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (pressure, density and temperature; troposphere - composition and chemistry; instruments and technique

Tropospheric Ozonesonde Profiles at Long-term U.S. Monitoring Sites: 1. A Climatology Based on Self-Organizing Maps

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, Ryan M.; Thompson, Anne M.; Young, George S.

2016-01-01

Sonde-based climatologies of tropospheric ozone (O3) are vital for developing satellite retrieval algorithms and evaluating chemical transport model output. Typical O3 climatologies average measurements by latitude or region, and season. A recent analysis using self-organizing maps (SOM) to cluster ozonesondes from two tropical sites found that clusters of O3 mixing ratio profiles are an excellent way to capture O3variability and link meteorological influences to O3 profiles. Clusters correspond to distinct meteorological conditions, e.g., convection, subsidence, cloud cover, and transported pollution. Here the SOM technique is extended to four long-term U.S. sites (Boulder, CO; Huntsville, AL; Trinidad Head, CA; and Wallops Island, VA) with4530 total profiles. Sensitivity tests on k-means algorithm and SOM justify use of 3 3 SOM (nine clusters). Ateach site, SOM clusters together O3 profiles with similar tropopause height, 500 hPa height temperature, and amount of tropospheric and total column O3. Cluster means are compared to monthly O3 climatologies.For all four sites, near-tropopause O3 is double (over +100 parts per billion by volume; ppbv) the monthly climatological O3 mixing ratio in three clusters that contain 1316 of profiles, mostly in winter and spring.Large midtropospheric deviations from monthly means (6 ppbv, +710 ppbv O3 at 6 km) are found in two of the most populated clusters (combined 3639 of profiles). These two clusters contain distinctly polluted(summer) and clean O3 (fall-winter, high tropopause) profiles, respectively. As for tropical profiles previously analyzed with SOM, O3 averages are often poor representations of U.S. O3 profile statistics.

Does acetone react with HO2 in the upper-troposphere?

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J. Lelieveld

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Recent theoretical calculations showed that reaction with HO2 could be an important sink for acetone (CH3C(OCH3 and source of acetic acid (CH3C(OOH in cold parts of the atmosphere (e.g. the tropopause region. This work details studies of HO2 + CH3C(OCH3 (CH32C(OHOO (R1 in laboratory-based and theoretical chemistry experiments; the atmospheric significance of Reaction (R1 was assessed in a global 3-D chemical model. Pulsed laser-kinetic experiments were conducted, for the first time, at the low-temperatures representative of the tropopause. Reaction with NO converted HO2 to OH for detection by laser induced fluorescence. Reduced yields of OH at T 2 by CH3C(OCH3 with a forward rate coefficient greater than 2 × 10−12 cm3 molecule−1 s−1. No evidence for Reaction (R1 was observed at T > 230 K, probably due to rapid thermal dissociation back to HO2 + CH3C(OCH3. Numerical simulations of the data indicate that these experiments were sensitive to only (R1a HO2-CH3C(OCH3 complex formation, the first step in (R1. Rearrangement (R1b of the complex to form peroxy radicals, and hence the atmospheric significance of (R1 has yet to be rigorously verified by experiment. Results from new quantum chemical calculations indicate that K1 is characterised by large uncertainties of at least an order of magnitude at T 3C(OCH3 near the tropopause, it cannot explain observations of CH3C(OOH throughout the troposphere.

16-year Climatology of Cirrus cloud properties using ground-based Lidar over Gadanki (13.45˚N, 79.18˚E)

Science.gov (United States)

Pandit, Amit Kumar; Raghunath, Karnam; Jayaraman, Achuthan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Gadhavi, Harish

Cirrus clouds are ubiquitous high level cold clouds predominantly consisting of ice-crystals. With their highest coverage over the tropics, these are one of the most vital and complex components of Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) due to their strong radiative feedback and dehydration in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) regions. The continuous changes in their coverage, position, thickness, and ice-crystal size and shape distributions bring uncertainties in the estimates of cirrus cloud radiative forcing. Long-term changes in the distribution of aerosols and water vapour in the TTL can influence cirrus properties. This necessitates long-term studies of tropical cirrus clouds, which are only few. The present study provides 16-year climatology of physical and optical properties of cirrus clouds observed using a ground-based Lidar located at Gadanki (13.45(°) N, 79.18(°) ˚E and 375 m amsl) in south-India. In general, cirrus clouds occurred for about 44% of the total Lidar observation time. Owing to the increased convective activities, the occurrence of cirrus clouds during the southwest-monsoon season is highest while it is lowest during the winter. Altitude distribution of cirrus clouds reveals that the peak occurrence was about 25% at 14.5 km. The most probable base and top height of cirrus clouds are 14 and 15.5 km, respectively. This is also reflected in the bulk extinction coefficient profile (at 532 nm) of cirrus clouds. These results are compared with the CALIPSO observations. Most of the time cirrus clouds are located within the TTL bounded by convective outflow level and cold-point tropopause. Cirrus clouds are thick during the monsoon season as compared to that during winter. An inverse relation between the thickness of cirrus clouds and TTL thickness is found. The occurrence of cirrus clouds at an altitude close to the tropopause (16 km) showed an increase of 8.4% in the last 16 years. Base and top heights of cirrus clouds also showed

Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

Science.gov (United States)

Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

2018-02-01

A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

Noy -, N2o-, and O3-measurements In The Ut/ls-region During Spurt: Correlation-analyses and Implications For Transport and Mixing Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Hegglin, M.; Fischer, H.; Hoor, P.; Beuermann, J.; Brunner, D.; Peter, T.

In the framework of SPURT we perform airborne in situ measurements of a variety of long-lived trace gases in order to investigate the role of dynamical and chemi- cal processes shaping the structure of the tropopause region. NOy is measured by chemiluminescence reaction of NO and O3, after reducing NOy species to NO by an externally mounted catalytic converter. N2O is measured by a Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), O3 with help of an UV absorption photometer. Two short measurement campaigns were carried out with a Learjet in autumn 2001 and winter 2002. Individual flights were conducted in wide North-South cuts between 78 deg N (Spitzbergen) and 28 deg S (Tenerife). In this contribution, first results will be presented including observations obtained from a flight through a spectacularly deep stratospheric intrusion with potentially significant troposphere/stratosphere ex- change. The effect of the STE on tracer-tracer correlations such as NOy-O3, O3-N2O, and NOy-N2O will be evaluated. The results will be compared with known correla- tions and also with analyses of backward-trajectories, showing the strong influence of air mass origin on the correlations obtained.

Improving 7-Day Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Retrieved AIRS Temperature Profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Susskind, Joel; Rosenberg, Bob

2016-01-01

We conducted a new set of Data Assimilation Experiments covering the period January 1 to February 29, 2016 using the GEOS-5 DAS. Our experiments assimilate all data used operationally by GMAO (Control) with some modifications. Significant improvement in Global and Southern Hemisphere Extra-tropical 7-day forecast skill was obtained when: We assimilated AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles in place of observed AIRS radiances, and also did not assimilate CrISATMS radiances, nor did we assimilate radiosonde temperature profiles or aircraft temperatures. This new methodology did not improve or degrade 7-day Northern Hemispheric Extra-tropical forecast skill. We are conducting experiments aimed at further improving of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical forecast skill.

Balloon-borne ozonesonde and rocket temperature and wind data gathered during the July 1977 intertropical convergence zone experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidlin, F. J.; Kloos, G.

1979-01-01

In middle latitudes, it is possible for large concentrations of stratospheric air to be brought down to the tropopause through folds or breaks in the tropopause. The exchange of air from the tropopause into higher altitudes is not well understood. Thus, the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) experiment, conducted from July 16 through July 31, 1977, included a series of balloon-borne ozone soundings. The results of these soundings are presented and explain in the vertical exchange of air and provide information on the short vertical scales-of-motion. Rocketsonde data was also gathered in the ITCZ experiment in support of a stratospheric scales-of-motion study. The investigation was to determine whether rocketsonde and satellite information currently used yield information on the stratospheric horizontal wave spectrum and its importance with respect to tropospheric and mesospheric interaction and transport.

Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate

OpenAIRE

Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Woollings, Tim; Hodges, Kevin

2013-01-01

The summertime variability of the extratropical storm track over the Atlantic sector and its links to European climate have been analysed for the period 1948–2011 using observations and reanalyses. The main results are as follows. (1) The dominant mode of the summer storm track density variability is characterized by a meridional shift of the storm track between two distinct paths and is related to a bimodal distribution in the climatology for this region. It is also closely related to the Su...

The Effect of Cirrus Clouds on Water Vapor Transport in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, L.; McCormick, M. P.; Anderson, J.

2017-12-01

Water vapor plays an important role in the Earth's radiation budget and stratospheric chemistry. It is widely accepted that a large percentage of water vapor entering the stratosphere travels through the tropical tropopause and is dehydrated by the cold tropopause temperature. The vertical transport of water vapor is also affected by the radiative effects of cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer. This latter effect of cirrus clouds was investigated in this research. The work focuses on the tropical and mid-latitude region (50N-50S). Water vapor data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and cirrus cloud data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) instruments were used to investigate the relationship between the water vapor and the occurrence of cirrus cloud. A 10-degree in longitude by 10-degree in latitude resolution was chosen to bin the MLS and CALIPSO data. The result shows that the maximum water vapor in the upper troposphere (below 146 hPa) is matched very well with the highest frequency of cirrus cloud occurrences. Maximum water vapor in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa) is partly matched with the maximum cirrus cloud occurrence in the summer time. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Interpolated Outgoing Longwave Radiation data and NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 wind data were used also to investigate the relationship between the water vapor entering the stratosphere, deep convection, and wind. Results show that maximum water vapor at 100 hPa coincides with the northern hemisphere summer-time anticyclone. The effects from both single-layer cirrus clouds and cirrus clouds above the anvil top on the water vapor entering the stratosphere were also studied and will be presented.

Structural Changes and Convective Processes in Tropical Cyclones as Seen in Infrared and Water Vapor Satellite Data

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-10

tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and

Skill of real-time operational forecasts with the APCC multi-model ensemble prediction system during the period 2008-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Min, Young-Mi; Kryjov, Vladimir N.; Oh, Sang Myeong; Lee, Hyun-Ju

2017-12-01

This paper assesses the real-time 1-month lead forecasts of 3-month (seasonal) mean temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis issued by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) for 2008-2015 (8 years, 96 forecasts). It shows the current level of the APCC operational multi-model prediction system performance. The skill of the APCC forecasts strongly depends on seasons and regions that it is higher for the tropics and boreal winter than for the extratropics and boreal summer due to direct effects and remote teleconnections from boundary forcings. There is a negative relationship between the forecast skill and its interseasonal variability for both variables and the forecast skill for precipitation is more seasonally and regionally dependent than that for temperature. The APCC operational probabilistic forecasts during this period show a cold bias (underforecasting of above-normal temperature and overforecasting of below-normal temperature) underestimating a long-term warming trend. A wet bias is evident for precipitation, particularly in the extratropical regions. The skill of both temperature and precipitation forecasts strongly depends upon the ENSO strength. Particularly, the highest forecast skill noted in 2015/2016 boreal winter is associated with the strong forcing of an extreme El Nino event. Meanwhile, the relatively low skill is associated with the transition and/or continuous ENSO-neutral phases of 2012-2014. As a result the skill of real-time forecast for boreal winter season is higher than that of hindcast. However, on average, the level of forecast skill during the period 2008-2015 is similar to that of hindcast.

Upscaling the impact of convective overshooting (COV) through BRAMS: a continental and wet-season scale study of the water vapour (WV) budget in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL).

Science.gov (United States)

Behera, Abhinna; Rivière, Emmanuel; Marécal, Virginie; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal; Burgalat, Jérémie

2017-04-01

The stratospheric water vapour (WV) has a conceding impact on the radiative and chemical budget of Earth's atmosphere. The convective overshooting (COV) at the tropics is well admitted for playing a role in transporting directly WV to the stratosphere. Nonetheless, its impact on the lower stratosphere is yet to be determined at global scale, as the satellite and other air-borne measurements are not of having fine enough resolution to quantify this impact at large scale. Therefore, efforts have been made to quantify the influence of COV over the WV budget in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through modelling. Our approach is to build two synthetic tropical wet-seasons; where one would be having only deep convection (DC) but no COV at all, and the second one would be having the COV, and in both cases the WV budget in the TTL would be estimated. Before that, a French-Brazilian TRO-pico campaign was carried out at Bauru, Brazil in order to understand the influence of COV on the WV budget in the TTL. The radio-sounding, and the small balloon-borne WV measurements from the campaign are being utilized to validate the model simulation. Brazilian version of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) is used with a single grid system to simulate a WV variability in a wet-season. Grell's convective parameterization with ensemble closure, microphysics with double moment scheme and 7 types of hydrometeors are incorporated to simulate the WV variability for a wet-season at the tropics. The grid size of simulation is chosen to be 20 km x 20 km horizontally and from surface to 30 km altitude, so that there cannot be COV at all, only DC due to such a relatively coarse resolution. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses data are used every 6 hours for grid initialization and boundary conditions, and grid center nudging. The simulation is carried out for a full wet-season (Nov 2012 - Mar 2013) at Brazilian scale, so that it would

Anthropogenic changes in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation through 1850-2005 simulated by an Earth system model

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, S.; Takemura, T.; Sudo, K.; Yokohata, T.; Kawase, H.

2012-06-01

The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280-315 nm) radiation through 1850-2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N-60° N and 120° E-150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Advanced Satellite-Derived Wind Observations, Assimilation, and Targeting Strategies during TCS-08 for Developing Improved Operational Analysis and Prediction of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-30

TC structure evolve up to landfall or extratropical transition. In particular, winds derived from geostationary satellites have been shown to be an... extratropical transition, it is clear that a dedicated research effort is needed to optimize the satellite data processing strategies, assimilation, and...applications to better understand the behavior of the near- storm environmental flow fields during these evolutionary TC stages. To our knowledge, this

GenCade Version 1 Model Theory and User’s Guide

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

summer, severe waves associated with extratropical storms frequent during winter and spring, and severe waves associated with tropical storms during...that the majority of waves are from the southeast and the more severe waves associated with extratropical storms are from the east- southeast. This...decades to centuries. However, these tools should also resolve processes that occur at the scale of individual storms and tidal cycles to calculate

The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

2007-11-01

latitudes because of stronger extratropical storm systems, including severe winter storms . General Patterns of Projected Climate Change This section...tropical cyclones, including typhoons and hurri- canes, and extratropical cyclones (i.e., mid-latitude storms ). Tropical storms may become less fre...recorded history.138 Similarly, it is unusual for tropical storms to make landfall in Europe , yet in 2005 the remnants of Hurricane Vince became the

Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Bielli, Soline; Douville, Hervé; Pohl, Benjamin

2010-07-01

General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance

Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bielli, Soline; Douville, Herve; Pohl, Benjamin [CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

2010-07-15

General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance

Wave Height and Water Level Variability on Lakes Michigan and St Clair

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-01

Observations: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/sose/glwx_activity.html 4. NASA Atlas of Extratropical Storm Tracks: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks...term meteorological, ice, wave, and water level measurements. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Base flood elevation Coastal flood Extratropical storms Great...Box 1027 Detroit, MI 48231-1027 ERDC/CHL TR-12-23 ii Abstract The Great Lakes are subject to coastal flooding as a result of severe storms

Severe Weather Guide Mediterranean Ports. 36. Limassol

Science.gov (United States)

1991-06-01

By the end of the month, the extratropical storm track has moved southward from its summertime location over Europe , and extratropical storms again...restricted mountain gaps or valleys and, as a result of the venturi effect, strengthen to storm intensity in a short period of time. As these winds exit...tendered vessels. Moderate to heavy swell may also propagate outward in advance of a storm resulting in uncomfortable and sometimes dangerous

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Cusack, Stephen

2016-04-01

The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and observational errors are reduced by the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between storm data sets. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit (re-)insurance applications. The shortest storm data set of 42 years provides indications of stronger clustering with severity, particularly for regions off the main storm track in central Europe and France. However, clustering estimates have very large sampling and observational errors, exemplified by large changes in estimates in central Europe upon removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm data sets show increased clustering between more severe storms from return periods (RPs) of 0.5 years to the longest measured RPs of about 20 years. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are more uncertain as they are drawn from smaller data samples. These new ultra-long storm data sets provide new information on clustering to improve our management of this risk.

Airborne differential absorption lidar for water vapour measurements in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the spectral region around 940 nm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poberaj, G.

2000-07-01

Two all-solid-state laser systems were developed and studied in detail to optimise their performance for an airborne water vapour differential absorption lidar (DIAL). Their special features are high average output powers and excellent spectral properties in the 940-nm spectral region relevant for monitoring very low water vapour contents in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. One system is an injection-seeded pulsed Ti:sapphire ring laser with a spectral bandwidth of 105 MHz and an average power of 1.1 W. The other system is an injection-seeded optical parametric oscillator (OPO) in a ring configuration. Using KTP as nonlinear crystal, a signal output with a spectral bandwidth of 140 MHz and an average power of 1.2 W was achieved. Both systems, the Ti:sapphire ring laser and the KTP OPO, possess spectral purity values higher than 99%. The pump source for these systems is a frequency doubled diode-pumped Nd:YAG laser operating at a repetition rate of 100 Hz. The KTP OPO system has been used as a transmitter in a new airborne water vapour DIAL instrument. For the first time, measurements of two-dimensional water vapour distributions with a high vertical (500 m) and horizontal (20 km) resolution across several potential vorticity streamers were performed. Very low water vapour mixing ratios (10-50 ppmv) and strong gradients were observed in the tropopause region. The sensitivity of the DIAL instrument in the centre of a stratospheric intrusion ranges from 3% in the near field to 12% in the far field (4 km). The first comparison experiments with in situ measuring instruments show a good agreement. Considerable differences are found between DIAL measurements and data obtained from the ECMWF operational analyses and a mesoscale numerical model. (orig.)

Convectively-driven cold layer and its influences on moisture in the UTLS

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J.; Randel, W. J.; Birner, T.

2016-12-01

Characteristics of the cold anomaly in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) that is commonly observed with deep convection are examined using CloudSat and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation measurements. Deep convection is sampled based on the cloud top height (>17 km) from CloudSat 2B-CLDCLASS, and then temperature profiles from COSMIC are composited around the deep convection. The composite temperature shows anomalously warm troposphere (up to 14 km) and a significantly cold layer near the tropopause (at 16-18 km) in the regions of deep convection. Generally in the tropics, the cold layer has very large horizontal scale (2,000 - 6,000 km) compared to that of mesoscale convective cluster, and it lasts one or two weeks with minimum temperature anomaly of - 2K. The cold layer shows slight but clear eastward-tilted vertical structure in the deep tropics indicating a large-scale Kelvin wave response. Further analyses on circulation patterns suggest that the anomaly can be explained as a part of Gill-type response in the TTL to deep convective heating in the troposphere. Response of moisture to the cold layer is also examined in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using microwave limb sounder (MLS) measurements. The water vapor anomalies show coherent structures with the temperature and circulation anomalies. A clear dry anomaly is found in the cold layer and its outflow region, implying a large-scale dehydration process due to the convectively driven cold layer in the upper TTL.

Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

2016-04-01

Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

Quasi-biennial oscillation in atmospheric ozone, and its possible consequences for damaging UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A N [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

1996-12-31

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone is supposed to be related to the QBO of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere, with an approximate period of 29 months. Generally speaking, mechanisms of QBO-related effects in the extratropical atmosphere should depend on season and region, resulting in other periodicities (e.g., a 20-month periodicity) due to nonlinear interaction between the `pure` QBO and an annual cycle. Seasonal and regional dependences of QBO-related effects in ozone not only influence the regime of ozone variability itself, but can have important consequences, for example, for interannual changes in biologically active UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends. This work is concerned with these problems

Quasi-biennial oscillation in atmospheric ozone, and its possible consequences for damaging UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A.N. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

1995-12-31

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone is supposed to be related to the QBO of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere, with an approximate period of 29 months. Generally speaking, mechanisms of QBO-related effects in the extratropical atmosphere should depend on season and region, resulting in other periodicities (e.g., a 20-month periodicity) due to nonlinear interaction between the `pure` QBO and an annual cycle. Seasonal and regional dependences of QBO-related effects in ozone not only influence the regime of ozone variability itself, but can have important consequences, for example, for interannual changes in biologically active UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends. This work is concerned with these problems

Estudo de Caso de Sistemas Meteorológicos em Altos Níveis Sobre a América do Sul: Análise Sinótica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Becker Nunes

2017-01-01

Full Text Available O Vórtice ciclônico de altos níveis (VCAN sobre o nordeste brasileiro (NeB e a Alta da Bolívia (AB são os típicos sistemas de pressão em altos níveis (250 hPa da América do Sul, especialmente nas estações mais quentes. Somados a eles, também pode-se considerar o VCAN extratropical, de característica transiente e encontrado o ano todo. Neste trabalho, é apresentada uma análise sinótica, baseada na literatura especializada, de um caso observado em 01 de fevereiro de 2005 em que os três sistemas ocorreram simultaneamente. Algumas características encontradas na literatura foram observadas nos sistemas deste caso. O campo de temperatura mais associado ao sistema extratropical foi o de 500 hPa, e não o de 250 hPa. Os movimentos verticais mais relevantes foram encontrados somente no sistema extratropical: intensos movimentos ascendentes à sotavento do eixo do cavado em altos níveis. Não se encontrou um sistema em superfície especificamente associado ao VCAN do NeB, enquanto que se observou a baixa continental (ou Baixa do Chaco associada à Alta da Bolívia e um intenso ciclone extratropical associado ao VCAN extratropical. Tal ciclone em superfície acarretou em vento sul e consequente resfriamento da camada, o que pôde ser observado pela amplitude do cavado em altos níveis, o que é raro para esta época do ano.

Forced response of the East Asian summer rainfall over the past millennium: results from a coupled model simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Jian; Wang, Hongli; Ti, Ruyuan [Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, Honolulu, HI (United States); Kuang, Xueyuan [Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing (China)

2011-01-15

The centennial-millennial variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation over the past 1000 years was investigated through the analysis of a millennium simulation of the coupled ECHO-G model. The model results indicate that the centennial-millennial variation of the EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcing (insolation, volcanic aerosol, and green house gases). The strength of the response depends on latitude; and the spatial structure of the centennial-millennial variation differs from the interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system. On millennial time scale, the extratropical and subtropical precipitation was generally strong during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and weak during Little Ice Age (LIA). The tropical rainfall is insensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of volcanic aerosols) but significantly responds to the modern anthropogenic radiative forcing. On centennial time scale, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall also tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely. The forced response features in-phase rainfall variability between the extratropics and subtropics, which is in contrast to the anti-correlation on the interannual time scale. Further, the behavior of the interannual-decadal variation in the extratropics is effectively modulated by change of the mean states on the millennial time scale, suggesting that the structure of the internal mode may vary with significant changes in the external forcing. These findings imply that on the millennial time scale, (a) the proxy data in the extratropical EA may more sensitively reflect the EASM rainfall variations, and (b) the Meiyu and the northern China rainfall provide a consistent measure for the EASM strength. (orig.)

Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast

Science.gov (United States)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-03-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

Can CFMIP2 models reproduce the leading modes of cloud vertical structure in the CALIPSO-GOCCP observations?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fang; Yang, Song

2018-02-01

Using principal component (PC) analysis, three leading modes of cloud vertical structure (CVS) are revealed by the GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product (GOCCP), i.e. tropical high, subtropical anticyclonic and extratropical cyclonic cloud modes (THCM, SACM and ECCM, respectively). THCM mainly reflect the contrast between tropical high clouds and clouds in middle/high latitudes. SACM is closely associated with middle-high clouds in tropical convective cores, few-cloud regimes in subtropical anticyclonic clouds and stratocumulus over subtropical eastern oceans. ECCM mainly corresponds to clouds along extratropical cyclonic regions. Models of phase 2 of Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP2) well reproduce the THCM, but SACM and ECCM are generally poorly simulated compared to GOCCP. Standardized PCs corresponding to CVS modes are generally captured, whereas original PCs (OPCs) are consistently underestimated (overestimated) for THCM (SACM and ECCM) by CFMIP2 models. The effects of CVS modes on relative cloud radiative forcing (RSCRF/RLCRF) (RSCRF being calculated at the surface while RLCRF at the top of atmosphere) are studied in terms of principal component regression method. Results show that CFMIP2 models tend to overestimate (underestimated or simulate the opposite sign) RSCRF/RLCRF radiative effects (REs) of ECCM (THCM and SACM) in unit global mean OPC compared to observations. These RE biases may be attributed to two factors, one of which is underestimation (overestimation) of low/middle clouds (high clouds) (also known as stronger (weaker) REs in unit low/middle (high) clouds) in simulated global mean cloud profiles, the other is eigenvector biases in CVS modes (especially for SACM and ECCM). It is suggested that much more attention should be paid on improvement of CVS, especially cloud parameterization associated with particular physical processes (e.g. downwelling regimes with the Hadley circulation, extratropical storm tracks and others), which

Understanding Rossby wave trains forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole

Science.gov (United States)

McIntosh, Peter C.; Hendon, Harry H.

2018-04-01

Convective variations over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole force a Rossby wave train that appears to emanate poleward and eastward to the south of Australia and which causes climate variations across southern Australia and more generally throughout the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. However, during austral winter, the subtropical jet that extends from the eastern Indian Ocean into the western Pacific at Australian latitudes should effectively prohibit continuous propagation of a stationary Rossby wave from the tropics into the extratropics because the meridional gradient of mean absolute vorticity goes to zero on its poleward flank. The observed wave train indeed exhibits strong convergence of wave activity flux upon encountering this region of vanishing vorticity gradient and with some indication of reflection back into the tropics, indicating the continuous propagation of the stationary Rossby wave train from low to high latitudes is inhibited across the south of Australia. However, another Rossby wave train appears to emanate upstream of Australia on the poleward side of the subtropical jet and propagates eastward along the waveguide of the eddy-driven (sub-polar) jet into the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. This combination of evanescent wave train from the tropics and eastward propagating wave train emanating from higher latitudes upstream of Australia gives the appearance of a continuous Rossby wave train propagating from the tropical Indian Ocean into higher southern latitudes. The extratropical Rossby wave source on the poleward side of the subtropical jet stems from induced changes in transient eddy activity in the main storm track of the Southern Hemisphere. During austral spring, when the subtropical jet weakens, the Rossby wave train emanating from Indian Ocean convection is explained more traditionally by direct dispersion from divergence forcing at low latitudes.

Transition extra-tropicale d'ouragans en Atlantique Nord et impact sur la prévisibilité d'événements extrêmes en Méditerranée

OpenAIRE

Pantillon , Florian

2012-01-01

The extratropical transition is the transformation of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone during its migration towards the midlatitudes. During its interaction with its new baroclinic environment, the cyclone can reintensify through complex dynamical and diabatic processes. It can also have a impact downstream from the strenghtening of a Rossby wave train, which quickly propagates and of which the breaking is often the trigger of extreme weather events. The complexity of dynamica...

Impacts of Potential Aircraft Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

tropical storm , red is a typhoon, and magenta is an extratropical cyclone. The numbers in each circle define the day in September 2008. (From...green is a tropical depression, yellow is a tropical storm , red is a typhoon, and magenta is an extratropical cyclone. The numbers in each circle define...depended on the location of the observation with respect to the storm and the altitude from which the observation provided a profile of winds

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

Drivers of Complexity in Humanitarian Operations

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-04

shaking) Volcano Volcanic eruption General Flood Flash flood Mass movement wet Landslide Mudslide Extratropical cyclone (winter storm ) Local storm Blizzard...Type Rank Count Drought 1 4 Epidemic 2 0 Viral Infectious Diseases 3 2 Cold Wave 4 2 Heat Wave 5 7 Extratropical  Cyclone (Winter  Storm ) 6 1 Tropical...catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm , high water, wind-driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, mudslide

Climate and Weather Analysis of Afghanistan Thunderstorms

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

dry, continental polar (cP) air. The subtropical jet (STJ) and Extratropical storm track tend to lie south of Kabul. Mean high SFC temperatures...March-April-May (MAM). Note that AFG lies to the east of a broad trough centered over southern Europe and to the west of broad ridge centered over... Extratropical Cyclone FAR False Alarm Rate FOB Forward Operating Base FRN Forecaster Reference Notebook GFS Global Forecast System GoA

Retrieval method of aerosol extinction coefficient profile based on backscattering, side-scattering and Raman-scattering lidar

Science.gov (United States)

Shan, Huihui; Zhang, Hui; Liu, Junjian; Tao, Zongming; Wang, Shenhao; Ma, Xiaomin; Zhou, Pucheng; Yao, Ling; Liu, Dong; Xie, Chenbo; Wang, Yingjian

2018-03-01

Aerosol extinction coefficient profile is an essential parameter for atmospheric radiation model. It is difficult to get higher signal to noise ratio (SNR) of backscattering lidar from the ground to the tropopause especially in near range. Higher SNR problem can be solved by combining side-scattering and backscattering lidar. Using Raman-scattering lidar, aerosol extinction to backscatter ratio (lidar ratio) can be got. Based on side-scattering, backscattering and Raman-scattering lidar system, aerosol extinction coefficient is retrieved precisely from the earth's surface to the tropopause. Case studies show this method is reasonable and feasible.

Jovian meterology: Large-scale moist convection without a lower boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Gierasch, P. J.

1975-01-01

It is proposed that Jupiter's cloud bands represent large scale convection whose character is determined by the phase change of water at a level where the temperature is about 275K. It is argued that there are three important layers in the atmosphere: a tropopause layer where emission to space occurs; an intermediate layer between the tropopause and the water cloud base; and the deep layer below the water cloud. All arguments are only semi-quantitative. It is pointed out that these ingredients are essential to Jovian meteorology.

Seasonal variations of water vapor in the tropical lower statosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Mote, Philip W.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Holton, James R.; Harwood, Robert S.; Waters, Joe W.

1995-01-01

Measurments of stratospheric water vapor by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) show that in the tropical lower statosphere, low-frequency variations are closely related to the annual cycle in tropical tropopause temperatures. Tropical stratospheric air appears to retain information about the tropopause conditions it enconters for over a year as it rises through the stratosphere. A two-dimensional Lagrangian model is used to relate MLS measurements to the temperature that tropical air parcels encounter when crossing the 100 hPa surface.

Betydningen av Grønlands orografi og frigjøring av latent varme på den ekstratropiske syklonen Gudrun

OpenAIRE

Eriksen, Bjart

2006-01-01

An intense extratropical storm, named Erwin/Gudrun, over the North Atlantic during winter 2005 is investigated to determine atmospheric factors contributing to its development. WRF is the numerical model which has been used to simulate the storm. The simulations of the extratropical storm are devided into two sets. The first set contains 66-hour simulations that describe the effect of latent heat release. The second set contains 90-hour simulations, and this set together with the first set de...

Regionalism, Regionalization and Regional Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liviu C. Andrei

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Sustained development is a concept associating other concepts, in its turn, in the EU practice, e.g. regionalism, regionalizing and afferent policies, here including structural policies. This below text, dedicated to integration concepts, will limit on the other hand to regionalizing, otherwise an aspect typical to Europe and to the EU. On the other hand, two aspects come up to strengthen this field of ideas, i.e. the region (al-regionalism-(regional development triplet has either its own history or precise individual outline of terms.

Tropical High Cloud Fraction Controlled by Cloud Lifetime Rather Than Clear-sky Convergence

Science.gov (United States)

Seeley, J.; Jeevanjee, N.; Romps, D. M.

2016-12-01

Observations and simulations show a peak in cloud fraction below the tropopause. This peak is usually attributed to a roughly co-located peak in radiatively-driven clear-sky convergence, which is presumed to force convective detrainment and thus promote large cloud fraction. Using simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium forced by various radiative cooling profiles, we refute this mechanism by showing that an upper-tropospheric peak in cloud fraction persists even in simulations with no peak in clear-sky convergence. Instead, cloud fraction profiles seem to be controlled by cloud lifetimes — i.e., how long it takes for clouds to dissipate after they have detrained. A simple model of cloud evaporation shows that the small saturation deficit in the upper troposphere greatly extends cloud lifetimes there, while the large saturation deficit in the lower troposphere causes condensate to evaporate quickly. Since cloud mass flux must go to zero at the tropopause, a peak in cloud fraction emerges at a "sweet spot" below the tropopause where cloud lifetimes are long and there is still sufficient mass flux to be detrained.

High Altitude Emissions of Black Carbon Aerosols: Potential Climate Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Satheesh, S. K.

2017-12-01

Synthesizing a series of ground-based and airborne measurements of aerosols over the Indian region during summer and pre-monsoon seasons have revealed the persistence of elevated absorbing aerosol layers over most of the Indian region; more than 50% of which located above clouds. Subsequent, in situ measurements of black carbon (BC) using high-altitude balloons, showed surprising layers with high concentrations in the middle and upper troposphere even at an altitude of 8 to 10 kms. Simultaneous measurements of the vertical thermal structure have shown localized warming due to BC absorption leading to large reduction in lapse rate and sharp temperature inversion, which in turn increases the atmospheric stability. This aerosol-induced stable layer is conducive for maintaining the black carbon layer longer at that level, leading thereby to further solar absorption and subsequently triggering dry convection. These observations support the `solar escalator' concept through which absorption-warming-convection cycles lead to self-lifting of BC to upper troposphere or even to lower stratosphere under favorable conditions in a matter of a few days. Employing an on-line regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem), incorporating aircraft emissions, it is shown that emissions from high-flying aircrafts as the most likely source of these elevated black carbon layers. These in-situ injected particles, produce significant warming of the thin air in those heights and lift these layers to even upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric heights, aided by the strong monsoonal convection occurring over the region, which are known to overshoot the tropical tropopause leading to injection of tropospheric air mass (along with its constituent aerosols) into the stratosphere, especially during monsoon season when the tropical tropopause layer is known to be thinnest. These simulations are further supported by the CALIPSO space-borne LIDAR derived extinction coefficient profiles. Based on

Using Self-Organizing Map (SOM) Clusters of Ozonesonde Profiles to Evaluate Climatologies and Create Linkages between Meteorology and Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Stauffer, R. M.; Thompson, A. M.; Young, G. S.; Oltmans, S. J.; Johnson, B.

2016-12-01

Ozone (O3) climatologies are typically created by averaging ozonesonde profiles on a monthly or seasonal basis, either for specific regions or zonally. We demonstrate the advantages of using a statistical clustering technique, self-organizing maps (SOM), over this simple averaging, through analysis of more than 4500 sonde profiles taken from the long-term US sites at Boulder, CO; Huntsville, AL; Trinidad Head, CA; and Wallops Island, VA. First, we apply SOM to O3 mixing ratios from surface to 12 km amsl. At all four sites, profiles in SOM clusters exhibit similar tropopause height, 500 hPa height and temperature, and total and tropospheric column O3. Second, when profiles from each SOM cluster are compared to monthly O3 means, near-tropopause O3 in three of the clusters is double (over +100 ppbv) the climatological O3 mixing ratio. The three clusters include 13-16% of all profiles, mostly from winter and spring. Large mid-tropospheric deviations from monthly means are found in two highly-populated clusters that represent either distinctly polluted (summer) or clean O3 (fall-winter, high tropopause) profiles. Thus, SOM indeed appear to represent US O3 profile statistics better than conventional climatologies. In the case of Trinidad Head, SOM clusters of O3 profile data from the lower troposphere (surface-6 km amsl) can discriminate background vs polluted O3 and the meteorology associated with each. Two of nine O3 clusters exhibit thin layers ( 100s of m thick) of high O3, typically between 1 and 4 km. Comparisons between clusters and downwind, high-altitude surface O3 measurements display a marked impact of the elevated tropospheric O­­3. Days corresponding to the high O3 clusters exhibit hourly surface O3 anomalies at surface sites of +5 -10 ppbv compared to a climatology; the anomalies can last up to four days. We also explore applications of SOM to tropical ozonesonde profiles, where tropospheric O3 variability is generally smaller.

Disdrometer-based C-Band Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

2017-12-01

An adequate quantification of precipitation over land is critical for many societal applications including agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, water supply, and risk management associated with extreme events. The use of rain gauges, a traditional method for precipitation estimation, and an excellent one, to estimate the volume of liquid water during a particular precipitation event, does not allow to fully capture the highly spatial variability of the phenomena which is a requirement for almost all practical applications. On the other hand, the weather radar, an active remote sensing sensor, provides a proxy for rainfall with fine spatial resolution and adequate temporary sampling, however, it does not measure surface precipitation. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of the weather radar, it is necessary to develop quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques combining radar information with in-situ measurements. Different QPE methodologies are explored and adapted to local observations in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia using a C-Band radar and a relatively dense network of rain gauges and disdrometers. One important result is that the expressions reported in the literature for extratropical locations are not representative of the conditions found in the tropical region studied. In addition to reproducing the state-of-the-art techniques, a new multi-stage methodology based on radar-derived variables and disdrometer data is proposed in order to achieve the best QPE possible. The main motivation for this new methodology is based on the fact that most traditional QPE methods do not directly take into account the different uncertainty sources involved in the process. The main advantage of the multi-stage model compared to traditional models is that it allows assessing and quantifying the uncertainty in the surface rain rate estimation. The sub-hourly rainfall estimations using the multi-stage methodology are realistic

Regions Subject to Rainfall Oscillation in the 5–10 Year Band

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Jean-Louis Pinault

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much research has tried to answer the question about the possible link between the frequency and the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones, which are particularly devastating, and global warming. This work aims at providing an exhaustive description of the rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 year band during one century on a planetary scale. It is shown that the rainfall oscillation results from baroclinic instabilities over the oceans. For that, a joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of sea surface temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies is performed, which discloses the mechanisms leading to the alternation of high and low atmospheric pressure systems. For a prospective purpose, some milestones are suggested on a possible link with very long-period Rossby waves in the oceans.

Water vapor increase in the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere by the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed during TACTS campaign in 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Rolf, Christian; Vogel, Bärbel; Hoor, Peter; Günther, Gebhard; Krämer, Martina; Müller, Rolf; Müller, Stephan; Riese, Martin

2017-04-01

Water vapor plays a key role in determining the radiative balance in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and thus the climate of the Earth (Forster and Shine, 2002; Riese et al., 2012). Therefore a detailed knowledge about transport pathways and exchange processes between troposphere and stratosphere is required to understand the variability of water vapor in this region. The Asian monsoon anticyclone caused by deep convection over and India and east Asia is able to transport air masses from the troposphere into the nothern extra-tropical stratosphere (Müller et al. 2016, Vogel et al. 2016). These air masses contain pollution but also higher amounts of water vapor. An increase in water vapor of about 0.5 ppmv in the extra-tropical stratosphere above a potential temperature of 380 K was detected between August and September 2012 by in-situ instrumentation above the European northern hemisphere during the HALO aircraft mission TACTS. Here, we investigated the origin of this water vapor increase with the help of the 3D Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS (McKenna et al., 2002). We can assign an origin of the moist air masses in the Asian region (North and South India and East China) with the help of model origin tracers. Additionally, back trajectories of these air masses with enriched water vapor are used to differentiate between transport from the Asia monsoon anticyclone and the upwelling of moister air in the tropics particularly from the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude

Science.gov (United States)

Leblanc, Thierry; McDermid, I. Stewart

2010-01-01

A Raman lidar system for measuring the vertical distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere is located at the Table Mountain Facility (TMF) in California. Raman lidar systems for obtaining vertical water-vapor profiles in the troposphere have been in use for some time. The TMF system incorporates a number of improvements over prior such systems that enable extension of the altitude range of measurements through the tropopause into the lower stratosphere. One major obstacle to extension of the altitude range is the fact that the mixing ratio of water vapor in the tropopause and the lower stratosphere is so low that Raman lidar measurements in this region are limited by noise. Therefore, the design of the TMF system incorporates several features intended to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio. These features include (1) the use of 355-nm-wavelength laser pulses having an energy (0.9 J per pulse) that is high relative to the laser-pulse energy levels of prior such systems, (2) a telescope having a large aperture (91 cm in diameter) and a narrow field of view (angular width .0.6 mrad), and (3) narrow-bandpass (wavelength bandwidth 0.6 nm) filters for the water-vapor Raman spectral channels. In addition to the large-aperture telescope, three telescopes having apertures 7.5 cm in diameter are used to collect returns from low altitudes.

Simulating gas-aerosol-cirrus interactions: Process-oriented microphysical model and applications

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B. Kärcher

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This work describes a process-oriented, microphysical-chemical model to simulate the formation and evolution of aerosols and ice crystals under the conditions prevailing in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The model can be run as a box model or along atmospheric trajectories, and considers mixing, gas phase chemistry of aerosol precursors, binary homogeneous aerosol nucleation, homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation, coagulation, condensation and dissolution, gas retention during particle freezing, gas trapping in growing ice crystals, and reverse processes. Chemical equations are solved iteratively using a second order implicit integration method. Gas-particle interactions and coagulation are treated over various size structures, with fully mass conserving and non-iterative numerical solution schemes. Particle types include quinternary aqueous solutions composed of H2SO4, HNO3, HCl, and HBr with and without insoluble components, insoluble aerosol particles, and spherical or columnar ice crystals deriving from each aerosol type separately. Three case studies are discussed in detail to demonstrate the potential of the model to simulate real atmospheric processes and to highlight current research topics concerning aerosol and cirrus formation near the tropopause. Emphasis is placed on how the formation of cirrus clouds and the scavenging of nitric acid in cirrus depends on small-scale temperature fluctuations and the presence of efficient ice nuclei in the tropopause region, corroborating and partly extending the findings of previous studies.

Data on present-day precipitation changes in the extratropical part of the northern hemisphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groisman, P.Ya.

1990-01-01

100-year time series of spatially averaged annual precipitation and precipitation for the warm period of the year (May-September) for 12 regions of the USSR, Europe and North America are analyzed. It is shown that for land within 30-70 degree N the precipitation trend was about 6%/100 year, the increase in precipitation amount being a maximum in the Eastern Hemisphere north of 55 degree N

An interim reference model for the middle atmosphere water vapor distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, J. M., III

1987-01-01

Nimbus 7 LIMS data are used to determine monthly and seasonal zonal mean reference stratospheric profiles over selected latitude bands, and other ground and airborne microwave data are combined with the LIMS data to construct an interim reference profile from the tropopause to 80 km for the midlatitude region averaged over the winter and spring periods. The present profiles indicate the presence of a hygropause near 50 mb pressure in the tropics, a relatively constant mixing ratio distribution with a height of 4.7-5 ppmv in the midlatitude and high latitude stratosphere, and a decrease in the midlatitude mesosphere to 1 ppmv at about 80 km.

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2011-11-15

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

Constructing Ozone Profile Climatologies with Self-Organizing Maps: Illustrations with CONUS Ozonesonde Data

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, A. M.; Stauffer, R. M.; Young, G. S.

2015-12-01

Ozone (O3) trends analysis is typically performed with monthly or seasonal averages. Although this approach works well for stratospheric or total O3, uncertainties in tropospheric O3 amounts may be large due to rapid meteorological changes near the tropopause and in the lower free troposphere (LFT) where pollution has a days-weeks lifetime. We use self-organizing maps (SOM), a clustering technique, as an alternative for creating tropospheric climatologies from O3 soundings. In a previous study of 900 tropical ozonesondes, clusters representing >40% of profiles deviated > 1-sigma from mean O­3. Here SOM are based on 15 years of data from four sites in the contiguous US (CONUS; Boulder, CO; Huntsville, AL; Trinidad Head, CA; Wallops Island, VA). Ozone profiles from 2 - 12 km are used to evaluate the impact of tropopause variability on climatology; 2 - 6 km O3 profile segments are used for the LFT. Near-tropopause O­3 is twice the mean O­3 mixing ratio in three clusters of 2 - 12 km O3, representing > 15% of profiles at each site. Large mid and lower-tropospheric O3 deviations from monthly means are found in clusters of both 2 - 12 and 2 - 6 km O3. Positive offsets result from pollution and stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange. In the LFT the lowest tropospheric O3 is associated with subtropical air. Some clusters include profiles with common seasonality but other factors, e.g., tropopause height or LFT column amount, characterize other SOM nodes. Thus, as for tropical profiles, CONUS O­3 averages can be a poor choice for a climatology.

Geomorphic Identification and Verification of Recent Sedimentation Patterns in the Woonasquatucket River, North Providence, Rhode Island

Science.gov (United States)

2007-03-01

1954 52.0 465 Diane 8/19/1955 Tropical Storm 29 1965 35.4 438 1963-1967 (Statewide) Alma 6/14/1966 Extratropical 30 1996 42.4 438 10/20/1996...1960 9/12/1960 Extratropical Tropical Storm Hurricane (Cat 2) 34 1990 48.1 402 Bob 8/19/1991 Hurricane (Cat 2) 35 1964 29.2 401 1963-1967...Island to use the Scotch loom, a reproduction of a power loom used in Europe , and was also the first mill in the United States to produce worsteds

Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

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M. Kageyama

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region

Satellite remote sensing and cloud modeling of St. Anthony, Minnesota storm clouds and dew point depression

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Tsao, Y. D.

1988-01-01

Rawinsonde data and geosynchronous satellite imagery were used to investigate the life cycles of St. Anthony, Minnesota's severe convective storms. It is found that the fully developed storm clouds, with overshooting cloud tops penetrating above the tropopause, collapsed about three minutes before the touchdown of the tornadoes. Results indicate that the probability of producing an outbreak of tornadoes causing greater damage increases when there are higher values of potential energy storage per unit area for overshooting cloud tops penetrating the tropopause. It is also found that there is less chance for clouds with a lower moisture content to be outgrown as a storm cloud than clouds with a higher moisture content.

A southeastern Mediterranean PV streamer and its role in December 2001 case with torrential rains in Israel

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S. O. Krichak

2007-01-01

Full Text Available A precipitation event of unprecedented intensity took place over northern part of Israel during 4 December 2001–5 December 2001. The case was associated with formation of a Cyprus Low cyclone over the Asia Minor. In the current study the synoptic developments over the eastern part of the Mediterranean region are simulated with the MM5 nonhydrostatic model and analyzed based on dynamic tropopause patterns calculated from the simulation results. According to the results, a powerful potential vorticity (PV streamer system played a major role in the process over the southeastern Mediterranean region. The PV streamer created conditions for seclusion of moist air masses from the equatorial East Africa and Atlantics during the cyclone development. Condensation of the moisture, associated with the latent heat release processes have contributed to the intense thunderstorm activity and heavy precipitation of the event.

Seasonal variation of equatorial wave momentum fluxes at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E

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M. N. Sasi

2001-08-01

Full Text Available The vertical flux of the horizontal momentum associated with the equatorial Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves are estimated from the winds measured by the Indian MST radar located at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during September 1995 to August 1996 in the tropospheric and lower stratospheric regions for all four seasons. The present study shows that momentum flux values are greater during equinox seasons than solstices, with values near the tropopause level being  16 × 10-3, 7.4 × 10-3, 27 × 10-3 and 5.5 × 10-3 m2 s-2 for Kelvin waves and 5.5 × 10-3, 3.5 × 10-3, 6.7 × 10-3 and 2.1 × 10-3 m2 s-2 for RG waves during autumnal equinox, winter, vernal equinox and summer seasons, respectively. Using these momentum flux values near the tropopause level, acceleration of the mean flow in the stratosphere up to a 29 km height were computed following Plumb (1984, by considering the wave-meanflow interaction and the deposition of the momentum through the radiative dissipation of the waves. A comparison of the estimated mean-flow acceleration in the stratosphere compares well, except at a few height levels, with the observed mean-flow accelerations in the stratosphere derived from the radiosonde data from a nearby station.Key words. Meteorology and atmosphenic dynamics (tropical meteorology; waves and tides

Application of stepwise multiple regression techniques to inversion of Nimbus 'IRIS' observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohring, G.

1972-01-01

Exploratory studies with Nimbus-3 infrared interferometer-spectrometer (IRIS) data indicate that, in addition to temperature, such meteorological parameters as geopotential heights of pressure surfaces, tropopause pressure, and tropopause temperature can be inferred from the observed spectra with the use of simple regression equations. The technique of screening the IRIS spectral data by means of stepwise regression to obtain the best radiation predictors of meteorological parameters is validated. The simplicity of application of the technique and the simplicity of the derived linear regression equations - which contain only a few terms - suggest usefulness for this approach. Based upon the results obtained, suggestions are made for further development and exploitation of the stepwise regression analysis technique.

Distributed Research Center for Analysis of Regional Climatic Changes and Their Impacts on Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, A. I.; Okladnikov, I.; Gordov, E. P.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Titov, A. G.

2016-12-01

Presented is a collaborative project carrying out by joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and and their impacts on the environment over the Northern extratropical areas. In the framework of the project new approaches to "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) are being developed. It will be deployed on technical platforms of both institutions and applied in research of climate change and its consequences. Datasets available at NCEI and IMCES include multidimensional arrays of climatic, environmental, demographic, and socio-economic characteristics. The project is aimed at solving several major research and engineering tasks: 1) structure analysis of huge heterogeneous climate and environmental geospatial datasets used in the project, their preprocessing and unification; 2) development of a new distributed storage and processing model based on a "shared nothing" paradigm; 3) development of a dedicated database of metadata describing geospatial datasets used in the project; 4) development of a dedicated geoportal and a high-end graphical frontend providing intuitive user interface, internet-accessible online tools for analysis of geospatial data and web services for interoperability with other geoprocessing software packages. DRC will operate as a single access point to distributed archives of spatial data and online tools for their processing. Flexible modular computational engine running verified data processing routines will provide solid results of geospatial data analysis. "Cloud" data analysis and visualization approach will guarantee access to the DRC online tools and data from all over the world. Additionally, exporting of data

Transport of water through the tropical tropopause

Science.gov (United States)

Kley, D.; Schmeltekopf, A. L.; Kelly, K.; Winkler, R. H.; Thompson, T. L.; Mcfarland, M.

1982-01-01

Total water was measured in the high troposphere and low stratosphere over Panama during ten aircraft flights. The results show that convective storms provide the means of transporting water into the stratosphere. From a consideration of the anvil heights over different areas of the tropical zone, it follows that a negative gradient of water vapor mixing ratio with altitude must exist over most of the lower stratosphere.

A new global real-time Lagrangian diagnostic system for stratosphere-troposphere exchange: evaluation during a balloon sonde campaign in eastern Canada

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M. S. Bourqui

2012-03-01

Full Text Available A new global real-time Lagrangian diagnostic system for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE developed for Environment Canada (EC has been delivering daily archived data since July 2010. The STE calculations are performed following the Lagrangian approach proposed in Bourqui (2006 using medium-range, high-resolution operational global weather forecasts. Following every weather forecast, trajectories are started from a dense three-dimensional grid covering the globe, and are calculated forward in time for six days of the forecast. All trajectories crossing either the dynamical tropopause (±2 PVU or the 380 K isentrope and having a residence time greater than 12 h are archived, and also used to calculate several diagnostics. This system provides daily global STE forecasts that can be used to guide field campaigns, among other applications. The archived data set offers unique high-resolution information on transport across the tropopause for both extra-tropical hemispheres and the tropics. This will be useful for improving our understanding of STE globally, and as a reference for the evaluation of lower-resolution models. This new data set is evaluated here against measurements taken during a balloon sonde campaign with daily launches from three stations in eastern Canada (Montreal, Egbert, and Walsingham for the period 12 July to 4 August 2010. The campaign found an unexpectedly high number of observed stratospheric intrusions: 79% (38% of the profiles appear to show the presence of stratospheric air below than 500 hPa (700 hPa. An objective identification algorithm developed for this study is used to identify layers in the balloon-sonde profiles affected by stratospheric air and to evaluate the Lagrangian STE forecasts. We find that the predictive skill for the overall intrusion depth is very good for intrusions penetrating down to 300 and 500 hPa, while it becomes negligible for intrusions penetrating below 700 hPa. Nevertheless, the

Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting

Science.gov (United States)

Wernli, Heini; Papritz, Lukas

2018-02-01

Annual minima in Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been decreasing rapidly since the late 1970s, with substantial interannual variability. Summers with a particularly strong reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent are characterized by anticyclonic circulation anomalies from the surface to the upper troposphere. Here, we investigate the origin of these seasonal circulation anomalies by identifying individual Arctic anticyclones (with a lifetime of typically ten days) and analysing the air mass transport into these systems. We reveal that these episodic upper-level induced Arctic anticyclones are relevant for generating seasonal circulation anomalies. Sea-ice reduction is systematically enhanced during the transient episodes with Arctic anticyclones and the seasonal reduction of sea-ice volume correlates with the area-averaged frequency of Arctic anticyclones poleward of 70° N (correlation coefficient of 0.57). A trajectory analysis shows that these anticyclones result from extratropical cyclones injecting extratropical air masses with low potential vorticity into the Arctic upper troposphere. Our results emphasize the fundamental role of extratropical cyclones and associated diabatic processes in establishing Arctic anticyclones and, in turn, seasonal circulation anomalies, which are of key importance for understanding the variability of summertime Arctic sea-ice melting.

Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

2018-01-01

Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

Sources and sinks of stratospheric water vapor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellsaesser, H.W.

1979-11-01

A tutorial review of the understanding of stratospheric H 2 O and the processes controlling it is presented. Paradoxes posed by currently available observational data are cited and suggestions made as to how they might be resolved. Such resolution appears to require: that the bulk of our current data provides unrepresentative and misleading vertical and latitudinal H 2 O gradients immediately downstream from the tropical tropopause; and, that there exists within the troposphere a mechanism different from or in addition to the tropical tropopause cold trap for drying air to the mixing ratios found in the lower stratosphere. Satisfaction of these requirements will reconcile much heretofore puzzling observational data and will obviate the necessity for a stratospheric sink for H 2 O

Retrieval method of aerosol extinction coefficient profile by an integral lidar system and case study

Science.gov (United States)

Shan, Huihui; Zhang, Hui; Liu, Junjian; Wang, Shenhao; Ma, Xiaomin; Zhang, Lianqing; Liu, Dong; Xie, Chenbo; Tao, Zongming

2018-02-01

Aerosol extinction coefficient profile is an essential parameter for atmospheric radiation model. But it is difficult to get the full aerosol extinction profile from the ground to the tropopause especially in near ground precisely using backscattering lidar. A combined measurement of side-scattering, backscattering and Raman-scattering lidar is proposed to retrieve the aerosol extinction coefficient profile from the surface to the tropopause which covered a dynamic range of 5 orders. The side-scattering technique solves the dead zone and the overlap problem caused by the traditional lidar in the near range. Using the Raman-scattering the aerosol lidar ratio (extinction to backscatter ratio) can be obtained. The cases studies in this paper show the proposed method is reasonable and feasible.

Regional development and regional policy

OpenAIRE

Šabić, Dejan; Vujadinović, Snežana

2017-01-01

Economic polarization is a process that is present at global, national and regional level. Economic activity is extremely spatially concentrated. Cities and developed regions use the agglomeration effect to attract labor and capital, thus achieving more favorable economic conditions than the agrarian region. Scientific research and European experiences over the past decades have contributed to the discrepancy among theorists about the causes and consequences of regional inequalities. Regional...

Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walsh, John E.; Chapman, William L.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

2008-01-01

The performance of a set of 15 global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is evaluated for Alaska and Greenland, and compared with the performance over broader pan-Arctic and Northern Hemisphere extratropical domains. Root-mean-square errors relative to the 1958...... to narrowing the uncertainty and obtaining more robust estimates of future climate change in regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and the broader Arctic....... of the models are generally much larger than the biases of the composite output, indicating that the systematic errors differ considerably among the models. There is a tendency for the models with smaller errors to simulate a larger greenhouse warming over the Arctic, as well as larger increases of Arctic...

Evaluation of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures as simulated with the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM over Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Krähenmann

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The representation of the diurnal 2-m temperature cycle is challenging because of the many processes involved, particularly land-atmosphere interactions. This study examines the ability of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (version 4.8 to capture the statistics of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures (Tmin/Tmax over Africa. The simulations are carried out at two different horizontal grid-spacings (0.22° and 0.44°, and are driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses as near-perfect lateral boundary conditions. As evaluation reference, a high-resolution gridded dataset of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmin/Tmax for Africa (covering the period 2008–2010 is created using the regression-kriging-regression-kriging (RKRK algorithm. RKRK applies, among other predictors, the remotely sensed predictors land surface temperature and cloud cover to compensate for the missing information about the temperature pattern due to the low station density over Africa. This dataset allows the evaluation of temperature characteristics like the frequencies of Tmin/Tmax, the diurnal temperature range, and the 90th percentile of Tmax. Although the large-scale patterns of temperature are reproduced well, COSMO-CLM shows significant under- and overestimation of temperature at regional scales. The hemispheric summers are generally too warm and the day-to-day temperature variability is overestimated over northern and southern extra-tropical Africa. The average diurnal temperature range is underestimated by about 2°C across arid areas, yet overestimated by around 2°C over the African tropics. An evaluation based on frequency distributions shows good model performance for simulated Tmin (the simulated frequency distributions capture more than 80% of the observed ones, but less well performance for Tmax (capture below 70%. Further, over wide parts of Africa a too large fraction of daily Tmax values exceeds the observed 90th percentile of Tmax, particularly

Evaluation of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures as simulated with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kraehenmann, Stefan; Kothe, Steffen; Ahrens, Bodo [Frankfurt Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences; Panitz, Hans-Juergen [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

2013-10-15

The representation of the diurnal 2-m temperature cycle is challenging because of the many processes involved, particularly land-atmosphere interactions. This study examines the ability of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (version 4.8) to capture the statistics of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures (Tmin/Tmax) over Africa. The simulations are carried out at two different horizontal grid-spacings (0.22 and 0.44 ), and are driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses as near-perfect lateral boundary conditions. As evaluation reference, a high-resolution gridded dataset of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmin/Tmax) for Africa (covering the period 2008-2010) is created using the regression-kriging-regression-kriging (RKRK) algorithm. RKRK applies, among other predictors, the remotely sensed predictors land surface temperature and cloud cover to compensate for the missing information about the temperature pattern due to the low station density over Africa. This dataset allows the evaluation of temperature characteristics like the frequencies of Tmin/Tmax, the diurnal temperature range, and the 90{sup th} percentile of Tmax. Although the large-scale patterns of temperature are reproduced well, COSMO-CLM shows significant under- and overestimation of temperature at regional scales. The hemispheric summers are generally too warm and the day-to-day temperature variability is overestimated over northern and southern extra-tropical Africa. The average diurnal temperature range is underestimated by about 2 C across arid areas, yet overestimated by around 2 C over the African tropics. An evaluation based on frequency distributions shows good model performance for simulated Tmin (the simulated frequency distributions capture more than 80% of the observed ones), but less well performance for Tmax (capture below 70%). Further, over wide parts of Africa a too large fraction of daily Tmax values exceeds the observed 90{sup th} percentile of Tmax, particularly across

The contribution of sting-jet windstorms to extreme wind risk in the North Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, Neil C.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Clark, Peter A.

2016-04-01

Windstorms are a major winter weather risk for many countries in Europe. These storms are predominantly associated with explosively-developing extratropical cyclones that track across the region. A substantial body of literature exists on the synoptic-scale dynamics, predictability and climatology of such storms. More recently, interest in the mesoscale variability of the most damaging winds has led to a focus on the role of sting jets in enhancing windstorm severity. We present a present-era climatology of North Atlantic cyclones that had potential to produce sting jets. Considering only explosively-developing cyclones, those with sting-jet potential are more likely to have higher relative vorticity and associated low-level wind maxima. Furthermore, the strongest winds for sting-jet cyclones are more often in the cool sector, behind the cold front, when compared with other explosively-developing cyclones which commonly have strong warm-sector winds too. The tracks of sting-jet cyclones, and explosively-developing cyclones in general, show little offset from the climatological storm track. While rare over Europe, sting-jet cyclones are relatively frequent within the main storm track with up to one third of extratropical cyclones exhibiting sting-jet potential. Thus, the rarity and, until recently, lack of description of sting-jet windstorms is more due to the climatological storm track location away from highly-populated land masses, than due to an actual rarity of such storms in nature.

Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Pengfei; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Liu, Shang; Telg, Hagen; Thornberry, Troy D.; Rollins, Andrew W.; Portmann, Robert W.; Bai, Zhixuan; Ray, Eric A.; Duan, Yunjun; Pan, Laura L.; Toon, Owen B.; Bian, Jianchun; Gao, Ru-Shan

2017-07-01

An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (˜15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (˜35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

Analytic studies on satellite detection of severe, two-cell tornadoes

Science.gov (United States)

Carrier, G. F.; Dergarabedian, P.; Fendell, F. E.

1979-01-01

From funnel-cloud-length interpretation, the severe tornado is characterized by peak swirl speed relative to the axis of rotation of about 90 m/s. Thermohydrodynamic achievement of the pressure deficit from ambient necessary to sustain such swirls requires that a dry, compressionally heated, non-rotating downdraft of initially tropopause-level air lie within an annulus of rapidly swirling, originally low-level air ascending on a near-moist-adiabatic locus of thermodynamic states. The two-cell structure furnishes an observable parameter possibly accessible to a passively instrumented, geosynchronous meteorological satellite with mesoscale resolution, for early detection of a severe tornado. Accordingly, the low-level turnaround region, in which the surface inflow layer separates to become a free ascending layer and for which inviscid modeling suffices, is examined quantitatively. Preliminary results indicate that swirl overshoot, i.e., swirl speeds in the turnaround region in excess of the maximum achieved in the potential vortex, is modest.

Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

2013-01-01

Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Stratospheric changes caused by geoengineering applications: potential repercussions and uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Kenzelmann, P.; Weisenstein, D.; Peter, T.; Luo, B. P.; Rozanov, E.; Fueglistaler, S.; Thomason, L. W.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions tend to warm the global climate, calling for significant rapid emission reductions. As potential support measures various ideas for geoengineering are currently being discussed. The assessment of the possible manifold and as yet substantially unexplored repercussions of implementing geoengineering ideas to ameliorate climate change poses enormous challenges not least in the realm of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Sulphur aerosols cool the Earth's surface by reflecting short wave radiation. By increasing the amount of sulphur aerosols in the stratosphere, for example by sulphur dioxide injections, part of the anthropogenic climate warming might be compensated due to enhanced albedo. However, we are only at the beginning of understanding possible side effects. One such effect that such aerosol might have is the warming of the tropical tropopause and consequently the increase of the amount of stratospheric water vapour. Using the 2D AER Aerosol Model we calculated the aerosol distributions for yearly injections of 1, 2, 5 and 10 Mt sulphur into the lower tropical stratosphere. The results serve as input for the 3D chemistry-climate model SOCOL, which allows calculating the aerosol effect on stratospheric temperatures and chemistry. In the injection region the continuously formed sulphuric acid condensates rapidly on sulphate aerosol, which eventually grow to such extent that they sediment down to the tropical tropopause region. The growth of the aerosol particles depends on non-linear processes: the more sulphur is emitted the faster the particles grow. As a consequence for the scenario with continuous sulphur injection of totally 10 Mt per year, only 6 Mt sulphur are in the stratosphere if equilibrium is reached. According to our model calculations this amount of sulphate aerosols leads to a net surface forcing of -3.4 W/m2, which is less then expected radiative forcing by doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Hence

Lower stratospheric observations from aircraft and satellite during the 2015/2016 El Nino

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenlof, K. H.; Avery, M. A.; Davis, S. M.; Gao, R. S.; Thornberry, T. D.

2016-12-01

Winter 2015/2016 experienced a strong El Nino that was heavily observed by aircraft, radiosonde and satellite platforms. During the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)/El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR) flights of the NASA Global Hawk, in situ ozone measurements were made in the lower stratosphere over the Pacific. These will be contrasted with ozone measurements taken during La Nina and ENSO neutral conditions during past Global Hawk aircraft campaigns. Additionally, lower stratospheric water vapor and ozone measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument and stratospheric ice measurements above the tropopause from the Cloud-Aerosol Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) will be presented. Our aircraft ozone measurements are higher for the El Nino flights than during other missions previously sampled, while zonally averaged lower stratospheric water vapor and central Pacific ice path above the tropopause reached record highs. Implications and possible reasons for these anomalous observations will be discussed. Winter 2015/2016 experienced a strong El Nino that was heavily observed by aircraft, radiosonde and satellite platforms. During the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)/El Nino Rapid Response (ENRR) flights of the NASA Global Hawk, in situ ozone measurements were made in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the Pacific. These will be contrasted with ozone measurements made during La Nina and ENSO neutral conditions during past Global Hawk aircraft campaigns. Additionally, UTLS water vapor and ozone measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite instrument and stratospheric ice measurements above the tropopause from the Cloud-Aerosol Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) will be presented. Our aircraft ozone

Atmospheric Signature of the Agulhas Current

Science.gov (United States)

Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle Stela; Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Rouault, Mathieu

2018-05-01

Western boundary currents play an important role in the climate system by transporting heat poleward and releasing it to the atmosphere. While their influence on extratropical storms and oceanic rainfall is becoming appreciated, their coastal influence is less known. Using satellite and climate reanalysis data sets and a regional atmospheric model, we show that the Agulhas Current is a driver of the observed band of rainfall along the southeastern African coast and above the Agulhas Current. The Agulhas current's warm core is associated with sharp gradients in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure, a convergence of low-level winds, and a co-located band of precipitation. Correlations among wind convergence, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature indicate that these features show high degree of similarity to those in the Gulf Stream region. Model experiments further indicate that the Agulhas Current mostly impacts convective rainfall.

On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in the ECHAM3 general circulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

May, W.

1994-01-01

First we consider the GCM's capability to reproduce the midlatitude variability on intra-seasonal time scales by a comparison with observational data (ECMWF analyses). Secondly we assess the possible influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the intra-seasonal variability by comparing estimates obtained from different simulations performed with ECHAM3 with varying and fixed SST as boundary forcing. The intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is underestimated over most of the Northern Hemisphere. While the contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations are reasonably well captured by the model, ECHAM3 fails to reproduce the observed level of low-frequency intra-seasonal variability. This is mainly due to the underestimation of the variability caused by the ultra-long planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes by the model. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, on the other hand, the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is generally underestimated in the area north of about 50 southern latitude, but overestimated at higher latitudes. This is the case for the contributions of the high-frequency and the low-frequency transient fluctuations as well. Further, the model indicates a strong tendency for zonal symmetry, in particular with respect to the high-frequency transient fluctuations. While the two sets of simulations with varying and fixed Sea Surface Temepratures as boundary forcing reveal only small regional differences in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strong response to be found in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations to the intra-seasonal variability are generally stronger in the simulations with fixed SST. Further, the Pacific storm track is shifted slightly poleward in this set of simulations. For the low-frequency intra-seasonal variability the model gives a strong, but regional response to the interannual variations of the SST. (orig.)

Role of the atmospheric mean state on the initiation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in a tropical channel model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ray, Pallav; Zhang, Chidong [University of Miami, RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL (United States); Moncrieff, Mitchell W.; Dudhia, Jim; Caron, Julie M.; Bruyere, Cindy [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

2011-01-15

Tropical channel models, defined as models that are global in the zonal direction but bounded in the meridional direction, are particularly useful for simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and understanding its physical and dynamical basis. Influences from the extratropics through the lateral boundaries have been found to be essential to the reproduction of the initiation of certain MJO events. This led to a hypothesis that multi-year simulations using a tropical channel model would reproduce reasonable MJO statistics under the influence of prescribed lateral boundary conditions derived from global reanalyses. Interestingly, the MJO statistics in such a multi-year simulation by a high-resolution tropical channel model are not better than those from global climate models. The error in the atmospheric mean state is found to be a possible reason for the poor MJO statistics in the simulation. Nevertheless, even with a large error in the mean state, the multi-year simulation captures two MJO events previously found to be initiated by extratropical influences. However, the model does not reproduce a third event, whose initiation is not directly influenced by the extratropics. This implies that in the absence of dynamical interactions between the MJO and the lateral boundary conditions, the error in the mean state could be sufficient to prevent the MJO initiation. To explore this third MJO event further, a series of sensitivity tests are conducted. These tests show that the simulation of this event is neither critically influenced by the cumulus parameterization employed, nor the initial conditions when the model is integrated 2 weeks prior to the MJO initiation. The model captures this event when the MJO signal is already present in the initial conditions. The use of high-resolution sea surface temperature does not improve the simulation of the third MJO event. A higher-resolution nested domain covering the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and including a cloud

Do supersonic aircraft avoid contrails?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Stenke

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of a potential future fleet of supersonic aircraft on contrail coverage and contrail radiative forcing is investigated by means of simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM4.L39(DLR including a contrail parameterization. The model simulations consider air traffic inventories of a subsonic fleet and of a combined fleet of sub- and supersonic aircraft for the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. In case of the combined fleet, part of the subsonic fleet is replaced by supersonic aircraft. The combined air traffic scenario reveals a reduction in contrail cover at subsonic cruise levels (10 to 12 km in the northern extratropics, especially over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. At supersonic flight levels (18 to 20 km, contrail formation is mainly restricted to tropical regions. Only in winter is the northern extratropical stratosphere above the 100 hPa level cold enough for the formation of contrails. Total contrail coverage is only marginally affected by the shift in flight altitude. The model simulations indicate a global annual mean contrail cover of 0.372% for the subsonic and 0.366% for the combined fleet in 2050. The simulated contrail radiative forcing is most closely correlated to the total contrail cover, although contrails in the tropical lower stratosphere are found to be optically thinner than contrails in the extratropical upper troposphere. The global annual mean contrail radiative forcing in 2050 (2025 amounts to 24.7 mW m⁻² (9.4 mW m⁻² for the subsonic fleet and 24.2 mW m⁻² (9.3 mW m⁻² for the combined fleet. A reduction of the supersonic cruise speed from Mach 2.0 to Mach 1.6 leads to a downward shift in contrail cover, but does not affect global mean total contrail cover and contrail radiative forcing. Hence the partial substitution of subsonic air traffic leads to a shift of contrail occurrence from mid to low latitudes, but the resulting change in

Evaluation of ACCMIP ozone simulations and ozonesonde sampling biases using a satellite-based multi-constituent chemical reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Bowman, Kevin

2017-07-01

The Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble ozone simulations for the present day from the 2000 decade simulation results are evaluated by a state-of-the-art multi-constituent atmospheric chemical reanalysis that ingests multiple satellite data including the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) for 2005-2009. Validation of the chemical reanalysis against global ozonesondes shows good agreement throughout the free troposphere and lower stratosphere for both seasonal and year-to-year variations, with an annual mean bias of less than 0.9 ppb in the middle and upper troposphere at the tropics and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis provides comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of chemistry-model performance that compliments direct ozonesonde comparisons, which are shown to suffer from significant sampling bias. The reanalysis reveals that the ACCMIP ensemble mean overestimates ozone in the northern extratropics by 6-11 ppb while underestimating by up to 18 ppb in the southern tropics over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Most models underestimate the spatial variability of the annual mean lower tropospheric concentrations in the extratropics of both hemispheres by up to 70 %. The ensemble mean also overestimates the seasonal amplitude by 25-70 % in the northern extratropics and overestimates the inter-hemispheric gradient by about 30 % in the lower and middle troposphere. A part of the discrepancies can be attributed to the 5-year reanalysis data for the decadal model simulations. However, these differences are less evident with the current sonde network. To estimate ozonesonde sampling biases, we computed model bias separately for global coverage and the ozonesonde network. The ozonesonde sampling bias in the evaluated model bias for the seasonal mean concentration relative to global

Response of winter North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Chauvin, Fabrice; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

2016-04-01

Climate variability in Europe in winter is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. These are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and mid latitudes. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it is relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex feedbacks acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains open. The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past and future decades and to analyze the contributions of the different external forcings (natural and anthropogenic) versus the internal variability. On this purpose, we use the Detection and Attribution (D&A) simulations performed with the coupled model CNRM-CM5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, a tracking scheme based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is conducted. We show that the coupled model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the tracks pathways comparing to several atmospheric reanalysis products. In the recent historical period (1950-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. Even if the role of internal variability is important in the last decades (the

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

2001-01-01

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

Spatial and temporal variability of interhemispheric transport times

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaokang; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Orbe, Clara; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2018-05-01

The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from the northern midlatitude surface into the Southern Hemisphere is examined using simulations of three idealized age tracers: an ideal age tracer that yields the mean transit time from northern midlatitudes and two tracers with uniform 50- and 5-day decay. For all tracers the largest seasonal and interannual variability occurs near the surface within the tropics and is generally closely coupled to movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are, however, notable differences in variability between the different tracers. The largest seasonal and interannual variability in the mean age is generally confined to latitudes spanning the ITCZ, with very weak variability in the southern extratropics. In contrast, for tracers subject to spatially uniform exponential loss the peak variability tends to be south of the ITCZ, and there is a smaller contrast between tropical and extratropical variability. These differences in variability occur because the distribution of transit times from northern midlatitudes is very broad and tracers with more rapid loss are more sensitive to changes in fast transit times than the mean age tracer. These simulations suggest that the seasonal-interannual variability in the southern extratropics of trace gases with predominantly NH midlatitude sources may differ depending on the gases' chemical lifetimes.

Returning "Region" to World Regional Geography

Science.gov (United States)

Rees, Peter W.; Legates, Margaret

2013-01-01

World regional geography textbooks rarely focus on the process of region formation, despite frequent calls to reincorporate a regional approach to teaching global geography. An instructional strategy using problem-based learning in a small honors section of a large world regional geography course is described. Using a hypothetical scenario…

Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions

Science.gov (United States)

Fiore, A. M.; Lin, M.; Cooper, O. R.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Levy, H.; Langford, A. O.; Johnson, B. J.; Oltmans, S. J.; Senff, C. J.

2011-12-01

As the National Ambient Air Quality (NAAQS) standard for ozone (O_{3}) is lowered, it pushes closer to policy-relevant background levels (O_{3} concentrations that would exist in the absence of North American anthropogenic emissions), making attainment more difficult with local controls. We quantify the Asian and stratospheric components of this North American background, with a primary focus on the western United States. Prior work has identified this region as a hotspot for deep stratospheric intrusions in spring. We conduct global simulations at 200 km and 50 km horizontal resolution with the GFDL AM3 model, including a stratospheric O_{3} tracer and two sensitivity simulations with anthropogenic emissions from Asia and North America turned off. The model is evaluated with a suite of in situ and satellite measurements during the NOAA CalNex campaign (May-June 2010). The model reproduces the principle features in the observed surface to near tropopause distribution of O_{3} along the California coast, including its latitudinal variation and the development of regional high-O_{3} episodes. Four deep tropopause folds are diagnosed and we find that the remnants of these stratospheric intrusions are transported to the surface of Southern California and Western U.S. Rocky Mountains, contributing 10-30 ppbv positive anomalies relative to the simulated campaign mean stratospheric component in the model surface layer. We further examine the contribution of North American background, including its stratospheric and Asian components, to the entire distribution of observed MDA8 O_{3} at 12 high-elevation CASTNet sites in the Mountain West. We find that the stratospheric O_{3} tracer constitutes 50% of the North American background, and can enhance surface maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O_{3} by 20 ppb when observed surface O_{3} is in the range of 60-80 ppbv. Our analysis highlights the potential for natural sources such as deep stratospheric intrusions to contribute

Equatorial wave activity during 2007 over Gadanki, a tropical station

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

been used to investigate the wave activity in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Waves in the ...... Oltmans S J 2001 Water vapor control at the tropopause by equatorial Kelvin .... observed in UARS microwave limb sounder temperature.

Hawaii Regional Sediment Management (RSM): Regional Sediment Budget for the West Maui Region

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

ER D C/ CH L TR -1 6- 5 Regional Sediment Management (RSM) Program Hawaii Regional Sediment Management (RSM): Regional Sediment Budget...acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. Regional Sediment Management (RSM) Program ERDC/CHL TR-16-5 June 2016 Hawaii Regional Sediment Management...distribution is unlimited. Prepared for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 Under Project 454632, “ Hawaii Regional Sediment Management

ASEAN : Extra-Regional Cooperation Triggers Regional Integration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krapohl, S.; Krapohl, S.

2017-01-01

This chapter contains two case studies of regional cooperation within Southeast Asia. The network analysis of ASEAN demonstrates that the region is dependent on extra-regional trade with the EU and the USA, but also with China and Japan. However, the region is not dominated by a single regional

Presentation on Tropical Mesoscale convective Systems and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

IAS Admin

Shallow convection- 70% of the storm heights are below 6 km. ♢ Deep convection ... Decay convection, the convective top is found at a higher altitude than deep .... Stratospheric Fountain – Two step process. Warm tropopause- preferable for.

Wave activity (planetary, tidal throughout the middle atmosphere (20-100km over the CUJO network: Satellite (TOMS and Medium Frequency (MF radar observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Manson

2005-02-01

Full Text Available Planetary and tidal wave activity in the tropopause-lower stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT is studied using combinations of ground-based (GB and satellite instruments (2000-2002. The relatively new MFR (medium frequency radar at Platteville (40° N, 105° W has provided the opportunity to create an operational network of middle-latitude MFRs, stretching from 81° W-142° E, which provides winds and tides 70-100km. CUJO (Canada U.S. Japan Opportunity comprises systems at London (43° N, 81° W, Platteville (40° N, 105° W, Saskatoon (52° N, 107° W, Wakkanai (45° N, 142° E and Yamagawa (31° N, 131° E. It offers a significant 7000-km longitudinal sector in the North American-Pacific region, and a useful range of latitudes (12-14° at two longitudes. Satellite data mainly involve the daily values of the total ozone column measured by the Earth Probe (EP TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and provide a measure of tropopause-lower stratospheric planetary wave activity, as well as ozone variability. Climatologies of ozone and winds/tides involving frequency versus time (wavelet contour plots for periods from 2-d to 30-d and the interval from mid 2000 to 2002, show that the changes with altitude, longitude and latitude are very significant and distinctive. Geometric-mean wavelets for the region of the 40° N MFRs demonstrate occasions during the autumn, winter and spring months when there are similarities in the spectral features of the lower atmosphere and at mesopause (85km heights. Both direct planetary wave (PW propagation into the MLT, nonlinear PW-tide interactions, and disturbances in MLT tides associated with fluctuations in the ozone forcing are considered to be possible coupling processes. The complex horizontal wave numbers of the longer period oscillations are provided in frequency contour plots for the TOMS satellite data to demonstrate the differences between lower atmospheric and MLT wave motions and their

Wave activity (planetary, tidal) throughout the middle atmosphere (20-100km) over the CUJO network: Satellite (TOMS) and Medium Frequency (MF) radar observations

Science.gov (United States)

Manson, A. H.; Meek, C. E.; Chshyolkova, T.; Avery, S. K.; Thorsen, D.; MacDougall, J. W.; Hocking, W.; Murayama, Y.; Igarashi, K.

2005-02-01

Planetary and tidal wave activity in the tropopause-lower stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) is studied using combinations of ground-based (GB) and satellite instruments (2000-2002). The relatively new MFR (medium frequency radar) at Platteville (40° N, 105° W) has provided the opportunity to create an operational network of middle-latitude MFRs, stretching from 81° W-142° E, which provides winds and tides 70-100km. CUJO (Canada U.S. Japan Opportunity) comprises systems at London (43° N, 81° W), Platteville (40° N, 105° W), Saskatoon (52° N, 107° W), Wakkanai (45° N, 142° E) and Yamagawa (31° N, 131° E). It offers a significant 7000-km longitudinal sector in the North American-Pacific region, and a useful range of latitudes (12-14°) at two longitudes. Satellite data mainly involve the daily values of the total ozone column measured by the Earth Probe (EP) TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and provide a measure of tropopause-lower stratospheric planetary wave activity, as well as ozone variability. Climatologies of ozone and winds/tides involving frequency versus time (wavelet) contour plots for periods from 2-d to 30-d and the interval from mid 2000 to 2002, show that the changes with altitude, longitude and latitude are very significant and distinctive. Geometric-mean wavelets for the region of the 40° N MFRs demonstrate occasions during the autumn, winter and spring months when there are similarities in the spectral features of the lower atmosphere and at mesopause (85km) heights. Both direct planetary wave (PW) propagation into the MLT, nonlinear PW-tide interactions, and disturbances in MLT tides associated with fluctuations in the ozone forcing are considered to be possible coupling processes. The complex horizontal wave numbers of the longer period oscillations are provided in frequency contour plots for the TOMS satellite data to demonstrate the differences between lower atmospheric and MLT wave motions and their

Wave activity (planetary, tidal throughout the middle atmosphere (20-100km over the CUJO network: Satellite (TOMS and Medium Frequency (MF radar observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Manson

2005-02-01

Full Text Available Planetary and tidal wave activity in the tropopause-lower stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT is studied using combinations of ground-based (GB and satellite instruments (2000-2002. The relatively new MFR (medium frequency radar at Platteville (40° N, 105° W has provided the opportunity to create an operational network of middle-latitude MFRs, stretching from 81° W-142° E, which provides winds and tides 70-100km. CUJO (Canada U.S. Japan Opportunity comprises systems at London (43° N, 81° W, Platteville (40° N, 105° W, Saskatoon (52° N, 107° W, Wakkanai (45° N, 142° E and Yamagawa (31° N, 131° E. It offers a significant 7000-km longitudinal sector in the North American-Pacific region, and a useful range of latitudes (12-14° at two longitudes. Satellite data mainly involve the daily values of the total ozone column measured by the Earth Probe (EP TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and provide a measure of tropopause-lower stratospheric planetary wave activity, as well as ozone variability.

Climatologies of ozone and winds/tides involving frequency versus time (wavelet contour plots for periods from 2-d to 30-d and the interval from mid 2000 to 2002, show that the changes with altitude, longitude and latitude are very significant and distinctive. Geometric-mean wavelets for the region of the 40° N MFRs demonstrate occasions during the autumn, winter and spring months when there are similarities in the spectral features of the lower atmosphere and at mesopause (85km heights. Both direct planetary wave (PW propagation into the MLT, nonlinear PW-tide interactions, and disturbances in MLT tides associated with fluctuations in the ozone forcing are considered to be possible coupling processes. The complex horizontal wave numbers of the longer period oscillations are provided in frequency contour plots for the TOMS satellite data to demonstrate the differences between lower atmospheric

Assessment of the atmospheric impact of volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Sigurdsson, H.

1988-01-01

The dominant global impact of volcanic activity is likely to be related to the effects of volcanic gases on the Earth's atmosphere. Volcanic gas emissions from individual volcanic arc eruptions are likely to cause increases in the stratospheric optical depth that result in surface landmass temperature decline of 2 to 3 K for less than a decade. Trachytic and intermediate magmas are much more effective in this regard than high-silica magmas, and may also lead to extensive ozone depletion due to effect of halogens and magmatic water. Given the assumed relationship between arc volcanism and subduction rate, and the relatively small variation in global spreading rates in the geologic record, it is unlikely that the rates of arc volcanism have varied greatly during the Cenozoic. Hotspot related basaltic fissure eruptions in the subaerial environment have a higher mass yield of sulfur, but lofting of the valcanic aerosol to levels above the tropopause is required for a climate impact. High-latitude events, such as the Laki 1783 eruption can easily penetrate the tropopause and enter the stratosphere, but formation of a stratospheric volcanic aerosol form low-latitude effusive basaltic eruptions is problematical, due to the elevated low-latitude tropopause. Due to the high sulfur content of hotspot-derived basaltic magmas, their very high mass eruption rates and the episodic behavior, hotspots must be regarded as potentially major modifiers of Earth's climate through the action of their volcanic volatiles on the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere.

The Deep Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Its Significance to the Stratosphere and Troposphere Exchange over the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xuelong; Añel, Juan A.; Su, Zhongbo; de la Torre, Laura; Kelder, Hennie; van Peet, Jacob; Ma, Yaoming

2013-01-01

In this study the depth of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the Tibetan Plateau was measured during a regional radiosonde observation campaign in 2008 and found to be deeper than indicated by previously measurements. Results indicate that during fair weather conditions on winter days, the top of the mixed layers can be up to 5 km above the ground (9.4 km above sea level). Measurements also show that the depth of the ABL is quite distinct for three different periods (winter, monsoon-onset, and monsoon seasons). Turbulence at the top of a deep mixing layer can rise up to the upper troposphere. As a consequence, as confirmed by trajectory analysis, interaction occurs between deep ABLs and the low tropopause during winter over the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:23451108

Regional planning without means - search for regional leadership

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Niels Boje; Fertner, Christian

and stakeholders, not least due to its polycentric urban structure with several medium-sized towns. Besides the regional authority and the regions 22 municipalities, sub-regional collaboration is gaining momentum. Furthermore, different fora, councils and associations are engaging in regional issues. However......, collaboration is often focused on specific sectors or sub-regions, while the joint development of the region is left behind. The regional authority has changed its focus from planning to the provision of knowledge, suitable to kick-off joint action with regional stakeholders, while municipalities keep focus...... on their own territories, eventually in the context of one of the new sub-regional collaborations. Based on an empirical analysis of the regional interplay in Southern Denmark and results from the ESPON ReSSI project, we go through these new settings of regional collaboration in the search for new forms...

Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiaojiao; Zhang, Yaocun

2018-01-01

Interannual variability of the North Pacific storm track and the three-dimensional atmosphere circulation during winter are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1950-2015. Results show that year-to-year variations of the storm track exhibit two principal modes, i.e. the monopole intensity change and the meridional shift of the storm track, respectively. The intensity change mode is linked to weakening of the Siberian high, northward shift of the western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and well corresponding to the Western Pacific teleconnection. The meridional shift mode is related to intensification and south-eastward extension of western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and linked to the Pacific-North America teleconnection. The internal atmospheric dynamics responsible for the storm track variability is further investigated from the perspective of wave-flow energy conversion. For the intensity change mode, accompanied by the enhanced baroclinity over the entrance region of the storm track, more energy is converted from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and then transferred to eddy kinetic energy, which is favorable for the overall enhancement of the storm track intensity. For the meridional shift mode, more energy is transformed from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and further transferred to eddy kinetic energy over the southern (northern) areas of the storm track, contributing to the southward (northward) shift of the storm track. Additionally, the increased (decreased) conversion from mean-flow kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy over the north-eastern Pacific region is also in favor of the southward (northward) shift of the storm track.

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Tropospheric Temperatures, Winds and Para-H2 from Cassini Far-IR Spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Fletcher, Leigh N.; Irwin, P. G. J; Achterberg, R. K.; Orton, G. S.; Flasar, F. M.

2015-01-01

temperatures, para-H2 and winds. Quantitative differences between the Cassini and Voyager epochs suggest that the oscillation is not in phase with the seasonal cycle at these tropospheric depths (i.e., it should be described as quasi-periodic rather than 'semi annual'). Variability in the zonal wind field derived from latitudinal thermal gradients is small (less than 10 m/s per scale height near the tropopause) and mostly affects the broad retrograde jets, with the notable exception of large variability on the northern flank of the equatorial jet. The meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient, and hence the 'staircase of PV' associated with spatial variations in the vigour of vertical mixing, has varied over the course of the mission but maintained its overall shape. PV gradients in latitude and altitude are used to estimate the atmospheric refractive index for the propagation of stationary planetary (Rossby) waves, predicting that such wave activity would be confined to regions of real refractivity (tropical regions plus bands at 35-45 in both hemispheres). The penetration depth of these regions into the upper troposphere is temporally variable (potentially associated with stratification changes), whereas the latitudinal structure is largely unchanged over time (associated with the zonal jet system).

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L; Clark, Peter A; Catto, Jennifer L

2012-01-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North-Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature, these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting-jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength. (letter)

Development and Application of Hyperspectral Infrared Ozone Retrieval Products for Operational Meteorology

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2015-01-01

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive

Demonstration of AIRS Total Ozone Products to Operations to Enhance User Readiness

Science.gov (United States)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2014-01-01

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive

Extreme Windstorms and Related Impacts on Iberia

Science.gov (United States)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ordóñez, Paulina; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Trigo, Isabel F.

2014-05-01

Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the mid latitudes, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the recent winters, the Iberian Peninsula was hit by severe (wind) storms such as Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. They were all explosive extratropical cyclones formed over the mid-Atlantic, travelling then eastwards at lower latitudes than usual along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track. In this work we present a windstorm catalogue for the Iberian Peninsula, where the characteristics of the potentially more destructive windstorms for the 1979-2012 period are identified. For this purpose, the potential impact of high winds over the Iberian Peninsula is assessed by using a daily damage index based on maximum wind speeds that exceeds the local 98th percentile threshold. Then, the characteristics of extratropical cyclones associated with these events are analyzed. Results indicate that these are fast moving, intense cyclones, typically located near the northwestern tip of the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral Grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

The dynamics of cyclone clustering in re-analysis and a high-resolution climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Priestley, Matthew; Pinto, Joaquim; Dacre, Helen; Shaffrey, Len

2017-04-01

Extratropical cyclones have a tendency to occur in groups (clusters) in the exit of the North Atlantic storm track during wintertime, potentially leading to widespread socioeconomic impacts. The Winter of 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterised by the recurrent clustering of intense extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic 250 hPa jet with Rossby wave-breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. Here, we provide for the first time an analysis of all clustered events in 36 years of the ERA-Interim Re-analysis at three latitudes (45˚ N, 55˚ N, 65˚ N) encompassing various regions of Western Europe. The relationship between the occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is studied in detail. Clustering at 55˚ N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)˚ N is associated with RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northwards (southwards). A positive correlation was found between the intensity of the clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships. Finally, analysis has shown that the relationships identified in the re-analysis are also present in a high-resolution coupled global climate model (HiGEM). In particular, clustering is associated with the same dynamical conditions at each of our three latitudes in spite of the identified biases in frequency and intensity of RWB.

Convective Transport of Very-short-lived Bromocarbons to the Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Qing; Atlas, Elliot Leonard; Blake, Donald Ray; Dorf, Marcel; Pfeilsticker, Klaus August; Schauffler, Sue Myhre

2014-01-01

We use the NASA GEOS Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) to quantify the contribution of two most important brominated very short-lived substances (VSLS), bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), to stratospheric bromine and its sensitivity to convection strength. Model simulations suggest that the most active transport of VSLS from the marine boundary layer through the tropopause occurs over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific warm pool, and off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Together, convective lofting of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 and their degradation products supplies 8 ppt total bromine to the base of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL, 150 hPa), similar to the amount of VSLS organic bromine available in the marine boundary layer (7.8-8.4 ppt) in the above active convective lofting regions. Of the total 8 ppt VSLS-originated bromine that enters the base of TTL at 150 hPa, half is in the form of source gas injection (SGI) and half as product gas injection (PGI). Only a small portion (Br2, together, contribute 7.7 pptv to the present-day inorganic bromine in the stratosphere. However, varying model deep convection strength between maximum and minimum convection conditions can introduce a 2.6 pptv uncertainty in the contribution of VSLS to inorganic bromine in the stratosphere (BryVSLS). Contrary to the conventional wisdom, minimum convection condition leads to a larger BryVSLS as the reduced scavenging in soluble product gases, thus a significant increase in PGI (2-3 ppt), greatly exceeds the relative minor decrease in SGI (a few 10ths ppt.

Seasonal variation of equatorial wave momentum fluxes at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. N. Sasi

Full Text Available The vertical flux of the horizontal momentum associated with the equatorial Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves are estimated from the winds measured by the Indian MST radar located at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during September 1995 to August 1996 in the tropospheric and lower stratospheric regions for all four seasons. The present study shows that momentum flux values are greater during equinox seasons than solstices, with values near the tropopause level being 
16 × 10^-3, 7.4 × 10^-3, 27 × 10^-3 and 5.5 × 10^-3 m² s^-2 for Kelvin waves and 5.5 × 10^-3, 3.5 × 10^-3, 6.7 × 10^-3 and 2.1 × 10^-3 m² s^-2 for RG waves during autumnal equinox, winter, vernal equinox and summer seasons, respectively. Using these momentum flux values near the tropopause level, acceleration of the mean flow in the stratosphere up to a 29 km height were computed following Plumb (1984, by considering the wave-meanflow interaction and the deposition of the momentum through the radiative dissipation of the waves. A comparison of the estimated mean-flow acceleration in the stratosphere compares well, except at a few height levels, with the observed mean-flow accelerations in the stratosphere derived from the radiosonde data from a nearby station.

Key words. Meteorology and atmosphenic dynamics (tropical meteorology; waves and tides

Contrasting terrestrial carbon cycle responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 extreme El Niño events

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun; Zeng, Ning; Wang, Meirong; Jiang, Fei; Wang, Hengmao; Jiang, Ziqiang

2018-01-01

Large interannual atmospheric CO2 variability is dominated by the response of the terrestrial biosphere to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the behavior of terrestrial ecosystems differs during different El Niños in terms of patterns and biological processes. Here, we comprehensively compare two extreme El Niños (2015/16 and 1997/98) in the context of a multi-event composite El Niño. We find large differences in the terrestrial carbon cycle responses, even though the two events were of similar magnitude.More specifically, we find that the global-scale land-atmosphere carbon flux (FTA) anomaly during the 1997/98 El Niño was 1.64 Pg C yr-1, but half that quantity during the 2015/16 El Niño (at 0.73 Pg C yr-1). Moreover, FTA showed no obvious lagged response during the 2015/16 El Niño, in contrast to that during 1997/98. Separating the global flux by geographical regions, we find that the fluxes in the tropics and extratropical Northern Hemisphere were 1.70 and -0.05 Pg C yr-1 during 1997/98, respectively. During 2015/16, they were 1.12 and -0.52 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Analysis of the mechanism shows that, in the tropics, the widespread drier and warmer conditions caused a decrease in gross primary productivity (GPP; -0.73 Pg C yr-1) and an increase in terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER; 0.62 Pg C yr-1) during the 1997/98 El Niño. In contrast, anomalously wet conditions occurred in the Sahel and East Africa during 2015/16, which caused an increase in GPP, compensating for its reduction in other tropical regions. As a result, the total 2015/16 tropical GPP and TER anomalies were -0.03 and 0.95 Pg C yr-1. GPP dominance during 1997/98 and TER dominance during 2015/16 accounted for the phase difference in their FTA. In the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the large difference occurred because temperatures over Eurasia were warmer during the 2015/16, as compared with the cooling seen during the 1997/98 and the composite El Niño. These warmer

Two dimensional model study of atmospheric transport using carbon-14 and strontium-90 as inert tracers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinnison, D.E.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Johnston, H.S.

1992-02-01

This study tests the transport processes in the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model using recently reanalyzed carbon-14 and strontium-90 data. These radioactive tracers were produced bythe atmospheric nuclear bomb tests of 1952--58 and 1961--62, and they were measured at a few latitudes up to 35 kilometers over the period 1955--1970. Selected horizontal and vertical eddy diffusion coefficients were varied in the model to test their sensitivity to short and long term transpose of carbon-14. A sharp transition of K zz and K yy through the tropopause, as opposed to a slow transition between the same limiting values, shows a distinct improvement in the calculated carbon-14 distributions, a distinct improvement in the calculated seasonal and latitudinal distribution of ozone columns (relative to TOMS observations), and a very large difference in the calculated ozone reduction by a possible fleet of High Speed Civil Transports. Calculated northern hemisphere carbon-14 is more sensitive to variation of K yy than are global ozone columns. Strontium-90 was used to test the LLNL tropopause height at four different latitudes. Starting with the 1960 background distribution of carbon-14, we calculate the input of carbon-14 as the sum of each nuclear test of the 1961--62 series, using two bomb-cloud rise models. With the Seitz bomb-rise formulation in the LLNL model, we find good agreement between calculated and observedcarbon-14 (with noticeable exceptions at the north polar tropopause and the short-term mid-latitude mid-stratosphere) between 1963 and 1970

Blizardy a sněhové bouře

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Müller, Miloslav

2016-01-01

Roč. 25, č. 4 (2016), s. 2-3 ISSN 1210-3004 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : blizzard * snowstorm * extratropical cyclone * United States of America Subject RIV: AM - Education OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Estimation of extreme wind speeds in the mixed strong wind climate of South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kruger, AC

2010-08-01

Full Text Available wind-generating mechanisms for Australia. Annual extreme wind speeds are generated by different mechanisms, forthcoming from thunderstorm activity and the passages of extratropical low pressure systems, which were identified. Separate extreme value...

Active region structures in the transition region and corona

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webb, D.F.

1981-01-01

Observational aspects of the transition region and coronal structures of the solar active region are reviewed with an emphasis on imaging of the plasma loops which act as tracers of the magnetic flux loops. The study of the basic structure of an active region is discussed in terms of the morphological and thermal classifications of active region loops, including umbral structures, and observational knowledge of the thermal structure of loops is considered in relation to scaling laws, emission measures and the structures of individual loops. The temporal evolution of active region loop structures is reviewed with emphasis on ephemeral regions and the emergence of active regions. Planned future spaceborne observations of active region loop structures in the EUV and soft X-ray regions are also indicated

Radio Occultation Bending Angle Anomalies During Tropical Cyclones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biondi, Riccardo; Neubert, Torsten; Syndergaard, Stig

signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), we show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger...

Thinking regionally: narrative, the medical humanities and region.

Science.gov (United States)

Waddington, Keir

2015-06-01

Drawing on multiple literatures from history, geography, anthropology, sociology and literature, this essay asks questions about what we mean by region and why narratives of region should matter to the medical humanities. The essay surveys how region can be used as a lens of analysis, exploring the various academic approaches to region and their limitations. It argues that regions are dynamic but also unstable as a category of analysis and are often used uncritically by scholars. In encouraging scholars working in the medical humanities to be aware that regions are not simple objective or analytical boxes, the essay shows how an awareness of region helps challenge metropolitan whiggism and ideas of core and periphery to give a more prominent place to hinterlands, market towns and rural environments. Furthermore, the essay considers how incorporating region into our understanding of illness can offer new insights. It demonstrates the need for scholars to be attuned to the narratives constructed around regions, suggesting that regions can be viewed as discursive formations that provide a frame for understanding both collective and personal ideas of, and responses to, health and illness, disease and healing, to create what Megan Davies calls a more nuanced 'intellectual cartography'. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Climate dynamics of South America during summer: Connections between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lenters, Johh Derick

1997-05-01

Relationships between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation over South America during austral summer are examined using a GCM, linear model, and observational analyses. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of upper-tropospheric circulation features such as the Bolivian high and its effects on South American precipitation variability, particularly on the Central Andean Altiplano. Results from the linear model indicate that the Bolivian high and 'Nordeste low' are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, Central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the Central Andes. In the GCM the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high. Observations from eight summer seasons reveal a close relationship between precipitation variability in the Central Andes and the position and intensity of the Bolivian high. The physical mechanisms of this connection are explored using composite, EOF, and correlation techniques. On intraseasonal to interannual timescales, rainy episodes on the Altiplano are found to be associated with warm, moist, poleward flow along the eastern flank of the Andes, often in conjunction with extratropical disturbances and a westward displacement of the SACZ. Corresponding to this

One common structural peculiarity of the Solar system bodies including the star, planets, satellites and resulting from their globes rotation

Science.gov (United States)

Kochemasov, G. G.

2008-09-01

Often observed a sensible difference in appearance and structure between tropical and extra-tropical zones of various heavenly bodies including rocky and gas planets, satellites and Sun compels to look for a common reason of such phenomenon. All bodies rotate and their spherical shape makes zones at different latitudes to have differing angular momenta as a distance to the rotation axis diminishes gradually from the equator to the poles (this is felt particularly when one launches rockets into space -preferable more cheap launches are from the equatorial regions - Kourou is better than Baikonur). One of remarkable changes occurs at tropics. As a single rotating planetary body tends to have angular momenta of its tectonic blocks equilibrated it starts mechanisms leveling this basic physical property. At tropical zones (bulged also due to the rotation ellipsoid) the outer shell - crust as a consequence tends to be destroyed, sunk, subsided and shrunk; a density of crust material changes; the atmosphere reacts changing chemistry and structure; in terrestrial anthroposphere man looses its mass and stature. But according to the Le Chatelier rule mechanisms with an opposing tendency also begin to act. At Earth the wide planetary long tropical zone is marked by destruction of the crust. It is demonstrated by development of numerous islands of the Malay Archipelago (the Sunda Isls., Maluku Isls, Philippines) between the Southeastern Asia and Australia. In Africa and South America huge depressions of the Congo and Amazon Rivers develops where the Archean crust is subsided to depths of more than 2 km. In the Pacific along the equator numerous islands of Micronesia occur. Subsidence of the basaltic oceanic crust is followed by an intensive folding and faulting of basalt and sedimentary layers (Fig. 1) as a larger mass must be held by a smaller space (a planetary radius is diminished). The central Atlantic is very demonstrative in this sense suffering huge transform fault

Latitudinal distribution of total ozone and NO[sub 2] over the Atlantic Ocean according to measurements in May 1988

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elokhov, A.S; Gruzdev, A.N. (Inst. Fiziki Atmosfery, Moscow (Russian Federation))

1992-07-01

Measurements of the total ozone and NO[sub 2] content conducted on board a ship in the 40 deg S - 40 deg N latitudinal belt in the Atlantic Ocean in the second half of May 1988 are reported. The main features of the latitudinal distributions of total ozone and NO[sub 2] are similar. Both distributions have minima in the equatorial zone of the Southern Hemisphere, and both the ozone and NO[sub 2] contents increase from tropical to subtropical latitudes. This increase is the strongest in the subtropical jet stream zone. The fine structure of the studied distributions is also revealed, and its relationship to stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes in the tropopause folding region is discussed. The evening total NO[sub 2] content systematically exceeds that of the morning due to diurnal variations. 20 refs.

Regional scheme for the connection to the grid of renewable energies: for the Hauts-de-France region, for the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region, for the Picardy region, the Alsace region, the Aquitaine region, the Auvergne region, the Lower-Normandy region, the Burgundy region, the Brittany region, the Centre-Val-de-Loire region, the Champagne-Ardennes region, the Franche-Comte region, the Upper Normandy region, the Ile-de-France region, the Languedoc-Roussillon region, the Lorraine region, the Midi-Pyrenees region, the Provence-Alps-Cote d'Azur region, the Pays-de-la-Loire region, the Poitou-Charentes region, the Rhone-Alps region. Technical and financial status of the scheme implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-01-01

This document gathers reports related to all French regions. Each one addresses the elaboration of the concerned regional scheme of connection of renewable energies to the distribution network (French acronym: S3REnR) which aims at anticipating and planning evolutions of electrical networks which are necessary for the integration of renewable energies. Illustrated by maps, tables and graphs, these reports propose indications of energy production locations, an identification of planned works, a presentation of the concerned region, of its existing grid and projects, an overview of the scheme content (initial status, results of consultations, adopted strategies, planned works), and an overview of the scheme implementation status

Raman lidar measurement of water vapor and ice clouds associated with Asian dust layer over Tsukuba, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Sakai, Tetsu; Nagai, Tomohiro; Nakazato, Masahisa; Matsumura, Takatsugu

2004-03-01

The vertical distributions of particle extinction, backscattering, depolarization, and water vapor mixing ratio were measured using a Raman lidar over Tsukuba (36.1°N, 140.1°E), Japan, on 23-24 April 2001. Ice clouds associated with the Asian dust layer were observed at an altitude of ~6-9 km. The relative humidities in the cloud layer were close to the ice saturation values and the temperature at the top of the cloud layer was ~-35°C, suggesting that the Asian dust acted as ice nuclei at the high temperatures. The meteorological analysis suggested that the ice-saturated region was formed near the top of the dust layer where the moist air ascended in slantwise fashion above the cold-frontal zone associated with extratropical cyclone.

Dvigateli regional'nogo stroitel'stva. Vlijanie regional'nyh politicheskih organizacij na sotrudnichestvo universitetov v regione Baltijskogo morja [Motors for regional development: impact on regional political organizations on the university cooperation in the Baltic Sea region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewert Stefan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Educational co-operation is one of the main aspects of the regional political agenda in the Baltic Sea Region. The article analyzes the political impact of the organizations, as perceived by the universities in the region and political decision-makers on national and regional levels. Based on the success of the OECD in becoming an influential actor in educational policies, this article discusses different strategies for the regional political organizations to enhance their influence.

Regional employment growth, shocks and regional industrial resilience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Jacob Rubæk; Østergaard, Christian Richter

2013-01-01

The resilience of regional industries to economic shocks has gained a lot of attention in evolutionary economic geography recently. This paper uses a novel quantitative approach to investigate the regional industrial resilience of the Danish ICT sector to the shock following the burst of the dot......-com bubble. It is shown that regions characterised by small and young ICT service companies were more adaptable and grew more than others, while diversity and urbanisation increased the sensitivity to the business cycle after the shock. Different types of resilient regions are found: adaptively resilient......, rigidly resilient, entrepreneurially resilient and non-resilient regions....

Regional Geography is Dead. Long Live Regional Geography!

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vaishar, Antonín; Werner, M.

2006-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 3 (2006), s. 2-8 ISSN 1210-8812 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : regional geography * regions * geography * methodology * Ostrava region Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

Impact of global SST gradients on the Mediterranean runoff changes across the Plio-Pleistocene transition

Science.gov (United States)

Colleoni, Florence; Cherchi, Annalisa; Masina, Simona; Brierley, Christopher M.

2015-06-01

This work explores the impact of the development of global meridional and zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients on the Mediterranean runoff variability during the Plio-Pleistocene transition, about 3 Ma. Results show that total annual mean Pliocene Mediterranean runoff is about 40% larger than during the preindustrial period due to more increased extratropical specific humidity. As a consequence of a weakened and extended Hadley cell, the Pliocene northwest Africa hydrological network produces a discharge 30 times larger than today. Our results support the conclusion that during the Pliocene, the Mediterranean water deficit was reduced relative to today due to a larger river discharge. By means of a stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model, we simulate the separate impact of extratropical and equatorial SST cooling on the Mediterranean runoff. While cooling the equatorial SST does not imply significant changes to the Pliocene Mediterranean hydrological budget, the extratropical SST cooling increases the water deficit due to a decrease in precipitation and runoff. Consequently, river discharge from this area reduces to preindustrial levels. The main teleconnections acting upon the Mediterranean area today, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and the "monsoon-desert" mechanism during summer already have a large influence on the climate of our Pliocene simulations. Finally, our results also suggest that in a climate state significantly warmer than today, changes of the Hadley circulation could potentially lead to increased water resources in northwest Africa.

On the use of colour reflectivity plots to monitor the structure of the troposphere and stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Rottger, J.; Fu, I. J.; Kuo, F. S.; Liu, C. H.; Chao, J. K.

1986-01-01

The radar reflectivity, defined as the range squared corrected power of VHF radar echoes, can be used to monitor and study the temporal development of inversion layer, frontal boundaries and convective turbulence. From typical featurs of upward or downward motion of reflectivity structures, the advection/convection of cold and warm air can be predicted. High resolution color plots appear to be useful to trace and to study the life history of these structures, particularly their persistency, descent and ascent. These displays allow an immediate determination of the tropopause height as well as the determination of the tropopause structure. The life history of warm fronts, cold fronts, and occlusions can be traced, and these reflectivity plots allow detection of even very weak events which cannot be seen in the traditional meteorological data sets. The life history of convective turbulence, particular evolving from the planetary boundary layer, can be tracked quite easily. Its development into strong convection reaching the middle troposphere can be followed and predicted.

Investigation of the question of a danger to the population by fallout from the stratospheric depot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Sladkovic, R.; Poetzl, K.

1975-01-01

The self-developed evaluation programme modified for the present tasks - a programme to set up continuous isentropical trajectory analyses and to investigate the tropopause fine structure for the determination of the climatology of the intrusion of stratospheric (contaminated) air into the troposphere and its transport to a point of the earth's surface in the temperate latitudes, is fully efficient. It does not merely determine trivial cases with direct sinking from the lower stratoshere to the measuring station (pure adiabatic case), but cases of non-adiabatic mixture processes can also be described by using several trajectories corresponding with one another. The method of cross-section and longitudinal section analyses gives the data necessary for the description of the intrusion of stratospheric air through the tropopause with sufficient accuracy. Based on the knowledge obtained sofar, a scheme to predict stratospheric intrusions has been set up and experimentally applied. The very first results are already promising. (orig.) [de

Galactic cosmic rays and tropical ozone asymmetries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilifarska, Natalya; Bakhmutov, Volodymyr; Melnyk, Galyna

2017-01-01

Lower stratospheric ozone O_3 is of special interest to climatic studies due to its direct influence on the tropopause temperature, and correspondingly on Earth’s radiation balance. By reason of the suppressed dissociation of molecular oxygen by solar UV radiation and the long life span of the lower stratospheric O_3 , its temporal variability is usually attributed to atmospheric circulation. Here we report about latitudinal-longitudinal differences in a centennial evolution of the tropical O_3 at 70 hPa. These asymmetries are hardly explicable within the concept of the ozone’s dynamical control alone. Analysis of ozone, energetic particles and the geomagnetic records from the last 111 years has revealed that they all evolve synchronously with time. This coherence motivates us to propose a mechanism explaining the geomagnetic and galactic cosmic ray influence on the near tropopause O_3 , allowing for an understanding of its spatial-temporal variability during the past century. Key words: galactic cosmic rays, asymmetries of tropical ozone distribution, geomagnetic filed

Remote sensing of severe convective storms over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, R. J.; Liu, J. M.; Tsao, D. Y.; Smith, R. E.

1984-01-01

The American satellite, GOES-1 was moved to the Indian Ocean at 58 deg E during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE). The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau significantly affects the initiation and development of heavy rainfall and severe storms in China, just as the Rocky Mountains influence the local storms in the United States. Satelite remote sensing of short-lived, meso-scale convective storms is particularly important for covering a huge area of a high elevation with a low population density, such as the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Results of this study show that a high growth rate of the convective clouds, followed by a rapid collapse of the cloud top, is associated with heavy rainfall in the area. The tops of the convective clouds developed over the Plateau lie between the altitudes of the two tropopauses, while the tops of convective clouds associated with severe storms in the United States usually extend much above the tropopause.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Regional Employment Growth, Shocks and Regional Industrial Resilience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, J.R.; Østergaard, Christian Richter

2015-01-01

The resilience of regional industries to economic shocks has gained a lot of attention in evolutionary economic geography recently. This paper uses a novel quantitative approach to investigate the regional industrial resilience of the Danish information and communication technology (ICT) sector...... to the shock following the burst of the dot.com bubble. It is shown that regions characterized by small and young ICT service companies were more adaptable and grew more than others, while diversity and urbanization increased the sensitivity to the business cycle after the shock. Different types of resilient...... regions are found: adaptively resilient, rigidly resilient, entrepreneurially resilient and non-resilient regions....

Regions Matter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laursen, Keld; Masciarelli, Francesca; Prencipe, Andrea

2012-01-01

capital at the regional level, with a large-scale data set of the innovative activities of a representative sample of 2,413 Italian manufacturing firms from 21 regions, and controlling for a large set of firm and regional characteristics, we find that being located in a region characterized by a high...

Biomass burning plumes and the aging of black carbon aerosols in the tropopause region observed with the CARIBIC single particle soot photometer

Science.gov (United States)

Ditas, J.; Ma, N.; Zhang, Y.; Assmann, D. N.; Neumaier, M.; Wang, S.; Wang, J.; Zahn, A.; Hermann, M.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M.; Poeschl, U.; Su, H.; Cheng, Y.

2017-12-01

Biomass burning (BB) events can release large amounts of refractory black carbon (rBC) into the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UT/LMS) (Dahlkötter et al., 2014). To explore this effect, a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) was added to the scientific payload of the instrumented CARIBIC container that is installed monthly in the cargo bay of a passenger aircraft (the IAGOS-CARIBIC atmospheric observatory, www.iagos.org). Regular measurement flights with different destinations are performed, covering an area of about 120°W to 120°E and 75°N to 30°S. A wide range of in situ measurements (CO, O3, greenhouse gases, aerosol particles and volatile organic compounds) is combined with a collection of air and aerosol samples for laboratory analyses. Since August 2014, the SP2 measures BC number and mass concentration at altitudes between 8 and 12 km. More than 600 BC measurement hours show a strong impact of BB emissions on the lowermost stratosphere. The BB plumes are identified with the help of concurrent carbon monoxide and acetonitrile measurements showing substantially increased concentrations compared to their background level. Transported into the lowermost stratosphere, BB smoke can be transported over long distances and the BC particles can stay in the atmosphere up to one year. The monthly missions of four consecutive CARIBIC flights sometimes enable to revisit a certain air mass, as was the case during a measurement flight to San Francisco in August 2014, with a stopover time of 2h. The revisited biomass burning plume located over the Altlantic ocean near Greenland was traced back by backward and forward trajectories to open fires in Canada (upper Fig.). The transit time of the smoke plume was estimated to 16 - 19h which perfectly matches our flight time difference ( 18h). Based on the LEO-fit method (Leading Edge Only fit) from Gao et al. (2007), the mixing state of the BC particles within the BB plume was calculated. Our unique data set enables the analysis of the aging process under real atmospheric conditions and with real BC particles. By analyzing the BB plume with different ages we estimate a coating thickness growth of 10 nm per day in the LMS (lower Fig.).

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

Science.gov (United States)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

2009-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

First Reprocessing of Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes Profile Records: 3. Uncertainty in Ozone Profile and Total Column

Science.gov (United States)

Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Thompson, Anne M.; Smit, Herman G. J.; Vömel, Holger; Posny, Françoise; Stübi, Rene

2018-03-01

Reprocessed ozonesonde data from eight SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) sites have been used to derive the first analysis of uncertainty estimates for both profile and total column ozone (TCO). The ozone uncertainty is a composite of the uncertainties of the individual terms in the ozone partial pressure (PO3) equation, those being the ozone sensor current, background current, internal pump temperature, pump efficiency factors, conversion efficiency, and flow rate. Overall, PO3 uncertainties (ΔPO3) are within 15% and peak around the tropopause (15 ± 3 km) where ozone is a minimum and ΔPO3 approaches the measured signal. The uncertainty in the background and sensor currents dominates the overall ΔPO3 in the troposphere including the tropopause region, while the uncertainties in the conversion efficiency and flow rate dominate in the stratosphere. Seasonally, ΔPO3 is generally a maximum in the March-May, with the exception of SHADOZ sites in Asia, for which the highest ΔPO3 occurs in September-February. As a first approach, we calculate sonde TCO uncertainty (ΔTCO) by integrating the profile ΔPO3 and adding the ozone residual uncertainty, derived from the McPeters and Labow (2012, doi:10.1029/2011JD017006) 1σ ozone mixing ratios. Overall, ΔTCO are within ±15 Dobson units (DU), representing 5-6% of the TCO. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (TOMS and OMI) satellite overpasses are generally within the sonde ΔTCO. However, there is a discontinuity between TOMS v8.6 (1998 to September 2004) and OMI (October 2004-2016) TCO on the order of 10 DU that accounts for the significant 16 DU overall difference observed between sonde and TOMS. By comparison, the sonde-OMI absolute difference for the eight stations is only 4 DU.

Modeling the TTL at Continental Scale for a Wet Season: An Evaluation of the BRAMS Mesoscale Model Using TRO-Pico Campaign, and Measurements From Airborne and Spaceborne Sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Behera, Abhinna K.; Rivière, Emmanuel D.; Marécal, Virginie; Rysman, Jean-François; Chantal, Claud; Sèze, Geneviève; Amarouche, Nadir; Ghysels, Mélanie; Khaykin, Sergey M.; Pommereau, Jean-Pierre; Held, Gerhard; Burgalat, Jérémie; Durry, Georges

2018-03-01

In order to better understand the water vapor (WV) intrusion into the tropical stratosphere, a mesoscale simulation of the tropical tropopause layer using the BRAMS (Brazilian version of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)) model is evaluated for a wet season. This simulation with a horizontal grid point resolution of 20 km × 20 km cannot resolve the stratospheric overshooting convection (SOC). Its ability to reproduce other key parameters playing a role in the stratospheric WV abundance is investigated using the balloon-borne TRO-Pico campaign measurements, the upper-air soundings over Brazil, and the satellite observations by Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, Microwave Humidity Sounder, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12. The BRAMS exhibits a good ability in simulating temperature, cold-point, WV variability around the tropopause. However, the simulation is typically observed to be warmer by ˜2.0°C and wetter by ˜0.4 ppmv at the hygropause, which can be partly affiliated with the grid boundary nudging of the model by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analyses. The modeled cloud tops show a good correlation (maximum cross-correlation of ˜0.7) with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12. Furthermore, the overshooting cells detected by Microwave Humidity Sounder are observed at the locations, where 75% of the modeled cloud tops are higher than 11 km. Finally, the modeled inertia-gravity wave periodicity and wavelength are comparable with those deduced from the radio sounding measurements during TRO-Pico campaign. The good behavior of BRAMS confirms the SOC contribution in the WV abundance, and variability is of lesser importance than the large-scale processes. This simulation can be used as a reference run for upscaling the impact of SOC at a continental scale for future studies.

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gulev, S.K.; Zolina, O.; Grigoriev, S. [AN SSSR, Moscow (USSR). Inst. Okeanologii

2001-07-01

The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency, intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s, associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies, and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical procedures are not negligible. (orig.)

Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunxiao Wang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS. The semi-annual oscillation (SAO in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be well captured by the model. The model simulations reveal that the CO surface emissions explain most of the SAO signals in the tropical UT, with the remainder being attributed to dynamical and chemical processes. The CO AO in the LS primarily results from combined effects of dynamical and chemical processes while the dynamical and chemical processes make opposite contributions to the CO AO signals, consistent with the previous findings. Our analysis further reveals that CO surface emissions tend to weaken the amplitude of the CO annual cycle in the tropical LS, while the annual variations in the meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson (BD circulation can amplify the annual variations of CO above 30 hPa. The model simulations also indicate that the CO annual cycle in the LS has a mixed behaviour with the annual variations of tropical upwelling reflected in CO between ~70 and ~50 hPa and a standard tape-recorder signal above 50 hPa. Moreover, the AO signals of CO exist up to 10 hPa when the chemical processes are switched off. The temporal and spatial variations of CO in the UT and near the tropopause are mainly driven by the upward transport of CO by tropical deep convection and the Asian summer monsoon circulation. In the early stage of the South Asian summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the South China in the late spring and early summer, the transport of the CO surface emissions over Southeast Asia by the South Asian summer monsoon leads to an increase in the tropical CO, but the horizontal transport from the extratropics into the tropics (termed in

Strong wind climatic zones in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kruger, AC

2010-01-01

Full Text Available of cold fronts over the southern African subcontinent. Over the eastern and central interior of South Africa annual maximum wind gusts are usually caused by thunderstorm gust fronts during summer, while in the western and southern interior extratropical...

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approxim...

Development of regional growth centres and impact on regional growth: A case study of Thailand’s Northeastern region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nattapon Sang-arun

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the spatial economic structure and inequality in Thailand at the national and regional levels, with a particular focus on the Northeastern region in the period from 1987 to 2007. The study has three main points: 1 examination of the economic structure and inequality at the national level and in the Northeastern region according to the Theil index, 2 determination of regional growth centres and satellite towns by using growth pole theory as a conceptual framework and incorporating spatial interaction analysis and 3 analysis of the relationship between regional growth centres and satellite towns with regard to the impact on growth and inequality. The results show that the Northeastern region is definitely the lagging region in the nation, by both gross domestic product (GDP and gross regional product (GRP per capita. It was therefore selected for a case study. Spatial analysis identified Nakhon Ratchasima, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani as regional growth centres. Each of them has its own sphere of influence (or satellite towns, and the total area of regional growth centres and satellite towns are classified as sub-regions. The development of regional growth centres has a direct impact on sub-regional economic growth through economic and social relationships: urbanisation, industrial development, per capita growth, the number of higher educational institutes and so on. However, such growth negatively correlates with economic equality among the provinces in a sub-region. The inequality trend is obviously on an upswing. This study suggests that industrial links between regional growth centres and their satellite towns should be improved in order for regional growth centre development to have a consistently desirable effect on both economic growth and equality. Such a strong process means that the growth of regional growth centres will spread, leading to the development of their surrounding areas.

Die Region braucht die Kultur - die Kultur braucht die Region

OpenAIRE

Klemm, Ulrich

1995-01-01

Die Region braucht die Kultur - die Kultur braucht die Region. - In: Region in Aktion - oder: Region im Abseits? - Boxberg-Wölchingen : Eigenständige Regionalentwicklung Baden-Württemberg, 1995. - S. 25 f.

A Declining Region: Provincial Renaissance Revisited (Case of Volgograd Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drozdova Yuliya

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes findings yielded by the empirical study performed in the framework of an RGNF grant entitled “Image of a region as a communicative strategy for the authorities and mass media”. The methods of study included expert survey and formal survey (N=1000, July-September 2013, studying the opinion of respondents who were either internal experts residing in the Volgograd region (N=20; May-September 2013 or external experts who reside outside the region but maintain stable ties with the representatives of state and municipal authorities, regional mass media and business. The findings indicate that the Volgograd region has fallen behind other modernized Russian regions, that young people tend to leave it, that a negative image of the region as a declining territory persists. Answers to the open question “What is unacceptable for you in the existing image of the Volgograd region?” revealed major problems determining the local context of a declining region, and those were issues associated with inefficient regional/municipal administration: “the condition of the roads”, “constant replacement of people in the administration”, “politics as a whole”, “a destitute region without a good manager”, “unemployment”, “countryside is dying off”, “indifference of the authorities”, “roads, housing and public utilities and the administration”, “the authorities are not responsible for the people”, “the authorities do not solve the problems of the city or its people”, “thieving”, “dishonest authorities”, “the region goes to rack and ruin, no kindergartens or jobs”, “one cannot even walk in the streets”, “corruption”, “a stagnant region with low pay”, “no perspectives in the future”, “the region is stagnating due to corruption among officials”. According to the local Census Bureau, the Volgograd region can be classified as a declining territory where the population decline

Severe Weather Events over Southeastern Brazil during the 2016 Dry Season

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Rehbein

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Southeastern Brazil is the most populated and economically developed region of this country. Its climate consists of two distinct seasons: the dry season, extending from April to September, the precipitation is significantly reduced in comparison to that of the wet season, which extends from October to March. However, during nine days of the 2016 dry season, successive convective systems were associated with atypical precipitation events, tornadoes and at least one microburst over the southern part of this region. These events led to flooding, damages to buildings, shortages of electricity and water in several places, many injuries, and two documented deaths. The present study investigates the synoptic and dynamical features related to these anomalous events. The convective systems were embedded in an unstable environment with intense low-level jet flow and strong wind shear and were supported by a sequence of extratropical cyclones occurring over the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. These features were intensified by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO in its phase 8 and by intense negative values of the Pacific South America (PSA 2 mode.

Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.

Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Bin; Lin, Hai

2018-03-29

The surface temperature variance and its potential change with global warming are most prominent in winter over Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Consistent wintertime surface temperature variability has been observed over large areas in Eurasia and North America on a broad range of time scales. However, it remains a challenge to quantify where and how the coherent change of temperature anomalies occur over the two continents. Here we demonstrate the coherent change of wintertime surface temperature anomalies over North Asia and the central-eastern parts of North America for the period from 1951 to 2015. This is supported by the results from the empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface temperature and temperature trend anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lands and the timeseries analysis of the regional averaged temperature anomalies over North Asia and the Great Plains and Great Lakes. The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection provides a pathway to connect the regional temperature anomalies over the two continents. The ABNA is also responsible for the decadal variation of the temperature relationship between North Asia and North America.

Radio occultation bending angle anomalies during tropical cyclones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biondi, Riccardo; Neubert, Torsten; Syndergaard, S.

2011-01-01

-located radiosondes, climatology of tropopause altitudes and GOES analyses are also shown to support the hypothesis that the bending angle anomaly can be used as an indicator of convective towers. The results are discussed in connection to the GPS radio occultation receiver which will be part of the Atomic Clock...

The politics of inter-regionalism: relations between international regional organizations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vleuten, J.M. van der; Ribeiro Hoffman, A.; Reinalda, B.

2013-01-01

As the development of relations between international regional organizations, inter-regionalism denotes a relatively recent phenomenon. Largely due to systemic bipolarity, inter-regional relations remained limited to 'dialogue partnerships' between the European Community (EC) and other regional

Regional Stability & Lessons Learned in Regional Peace Building

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestenskov, David; Johnsen, Anton Asklund

, as none of the countries is able to deal with the intrastate and interstate conflicts on its own. The conference Regional Stability & Lessons Learned in Regional Peace Building was the result of comprehensive cooperation between Pakistan’s National Defence University and the Royal Danish Defence College......The NATO-led intervention in Afghanistan is coming to an end, and the necessity of regional peace building solutions for the region’s security issues seems more exigent than ever before. Regional states have to come to terms with each other in some ways if violent extremists are to be countered...

Global observations of BrO in the troposphere using GOME-2 satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Theys, N.; van Roozendael, M.; Hendrick, F.; Xin, Y.; Isabelle, D.; Richter, A.; Mathias, B.; Quentin, E.; Johnston, P. V.; Kreher, K.; Martine, D.

2010-12-01

Measurements from the GOME-2 satellite instrument have been analyzed for tropospheric BrO using a residual technique that combines measured BrO columns and estimates of the stratospheric BrO content from a climatological approach driven by O3 and NO2 observations. Comparisons between the GOME-2 results and correlative data including ground-based BrO vertical columns and total BrO columns derived from SCIAMACHY nadir observations, present a good level of consistency. We show that the adopted technique enables to separate the stratospheric and tropospheric fractions of the measured total BrO columns and allows studying the BrO plumes in polar region in more detail. While several satellite BrO plumes can largely be explained by an influence of stratospheric descending air, we show that numerous tropospheric BrO hotspots are associated to regions with low tropopause heights as well. Elaborating on simulations using the p-TOMCAT tropospheric chemical transport model, this finding is found to be consistent with the mechanism of bromine release through sea salt aerosols production during blowing snow events. Outside the polar region, evidences are provided for a global tropospheric BrO background with columns of 1-3 x 1013 molec/cm2.

Building a competitive regional innovation environment : the regional development platform method as a tool for regional innovation policy

OpenAIRE

Harmaakorpi, Vesa

2004-01-01

The study focuses on building a regional innovation policy tool that takes into account the demands of the present techno-economic and socio-institutional paradigms. Regions are seen to be strongly dependent on their history. The competitiveness of a region is based on the regional resource configurations. In a turbulent world these resource configurations have to be renewed over time setting demands for regional dynamic capabilities. This study emphasises five regional dynamic capabilities: ...

A subspecies of region crossing change, region freeze crossing change

OpenAIRE

Inoue, Ayumu; Shimizu, Ryo

2016-01-01

We introduce a local move on a link diagram named a region freeze crossing change which is close to a region crossing change, but not the same. We study similarity and difference between region crossing change and region freeze crossing change.

SeaWiFS: North Pacific Storm

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

An extratropical storm can be seen swirling over the North Pacific just south of Alaska. This SeaWiFS image was collected yesterday at 23:20 GMT. Credit: Provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Whitecapping and wave field evolution in a coastal bay

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mulligan, R.P.; Bowen, A.J.; Hay, A.E.; Van der Westhuysen, A.J.; Battjes, J.A.

2008-01-01

Evolution of the wave field in a coastal bay is investigated, by comparison between field observations and numerical simulations using a spectral wave model (Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN)). The simulations were conducted for the passage of an extratropical storm, during which surface elevation

Regional alternative transportation evaluation report - Region 4

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-15

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Volpe Center (Volpe Center) conducted a regional alternative transportation evaluation (RATE) in Region 4, which is comprised of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Geor...

Regional alternative transportation evaluation report - region 2

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Volpe : Center (Volpe Center) conducted a regional alternative transportation evaluation (RATE) in Region 2, : which is comprised of Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexic...

Regional alternative transportation evaluation report - region 5

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-14

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Volpe Center (Volpe Center) conducted a regional alternative transportation evaluation (RATE) in Region 3, which is comprised of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michiga...