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Sample records for extraterrestrial physics garching

  1. IPP Max Planck Institute of Plasma of Physics at Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The cost accounting system of the IPP Max Planck Institute of Plasma Physics at Garching is described with all details as there are cost class accounting, cost centers, cost units and resulting overall cost summary. Detailed instructions are given about the implementation of this cost accounting system into the organisational structure of the IPP. (A.N.)

  2. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  3. TESTING GARCH-X TYPE MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We present novel theory for testing for reduction of GARCH-X type models with an exogenous (X) covariate to standard GARCH type models. To deal with the problems of potential nuisance parameters on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identification under the null, we exploit...... a noticeable property of specific zero-entries in the inverse information of the GARCH-X type models. Specifically, we consider sequential testing based on two likelihood ratio tests and as demonstrated the structure of the inverse information implies that the proposed test neither depends on whether...... the nuisance parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space, nor on lack of identification. Our general results on GARCH-X type models are applied to Gaussian based GARCH-X models, GARCH-X models with Student's t-distributed innovations as well as the integer-valued GARCH-X (PAR-X) models....

  4. Multivariate GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes nonparametric and semiparametric models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical example...

  5. GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey Chu; Stephen Chan; Saralees Nadarajah; Joerg Osterrieder

    2017-01-01

    With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

  6. GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

  7. Laboratory for Extraterrestrial Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vondrak, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Laboratory for Extraterrestrial Physics (LEP) performs experimental and theoretical research on the heliosphere, the interstellar medium, and the magnetospheres and upper atmospheres of the planets, including Earth. LEP space scientists investigate the structure and dynamics of the magnetospheres of the planets including Earth. Their research programs encompass the magnetic fields intrinsic to many planetary bodies as well as their charged-particle environments and plasma-wave emissions. The LEP also conducts research into the nature of planetary ionospheres and their coupling to both the upper atmospheres and their magnetospheres. Finally, the LEP carries out a broad-based research program in heliospheric physics covering the origins of the solar wind, its propagation outward through the solar system all the way to its termination where it encounters the local interstellar medium. Special emphasis is placed on the study of solar coronal mass ejections (CME's), shock waves, and the structure and properties of the fast and slow solar wind. LEP planetary scientists study the chemistry and physics of planetary stratospheres and tropospheres and of solar system bodies including meteorites, asteroids, comets, and planets. The LEP conducts a focused program in astronomy, particularly in the infrared and in short as well as very long radio wavelengths. We also perform an extensive program of laboratory research, including spectroscopy and physical chemistry related to astronomical objects. The Laboratory proposes, develops, fabricates, and integrates experiments on Earth-orbiting, planetary, and heliospheric spacecraft to measure the characteristics of planetary atmospheres and magnetic fields, and electromagnetic fields and plasmas in space. We design and develop spectrometric instrumentation for continuum and spectral line observations in the x-ray, gamma-ray, infrared, and radio regimes; these are flown on spacecraft to study

  8. Empirical study of the GARCH model with rational errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it to stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform Bayesian inference to the model. Bayesian inference is implemented by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive multi-dimensional Student's t-proposal density. In order to compare our model with the GARCH model with the standard normal errors, we calculate the information criteria AIC and DIC, and find that both criteria favor the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. We also calculate the accuracy of the volatility by using the realized volatility and find that a good accuracy is obtained for the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. Thus we conclude that the GARCH model with a rational error distribution is superior to the GARCH model with the normal errors and it can be used as an alternative GARCH model to those with other fat-tailed distributions

  9. Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.

    2016-01-01

    We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.

  10. Empirical investigation on modeling solar radiation series with ARMA–GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Yan, Dong; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Jianzhong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Apply 6 ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to model and forecast solar radiation. • The ARMA–GARCH(-M) models produce more accurate radiation forecasting than conventional methods. • Show that ARMA–GARCH-M models are more effective for forecasting solar radiation mean and volatility. • The ARMA–EGARCH-M is robust and the ARMA–sGARCH-M is very competitive. - Abstract: Simulation of radiation is one of the most important issues in solar utilization. Time series models are useful tools in the estimation and forecasting of solar radiation series and their changes. In this paper, the effectiveness of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models with various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) processes, namely ARMA–GARCH models are evaluated for their effectiveness in radiation series. Six different GARCH approaches, which contain three different ARMA–GARCH models and corresponded GARCH in mean (ARMA–GARCH-M) models, are applied in radiation data sets from two representative climate stations in China. Multiple evaluation metrics of modeling sufficiency are used for evaluating the performances of models. The results show that the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models are effective in radiation series estimation. Both in fitting and prediction of radiation series, the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models show better modeling sufficiency than traditional models, while ARMA–EGARCH-M models are robustness in two sites and the ARMA–sGARCH-M models appear very competitive. Comparisons of statistical diagnostics and model performance clearly show that the ARMA–GARCH-M models make the mean radiation equations become more sufficient. It is recommended the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to be the preferred method to use in the modeling of solar radiation series

  11. Nonstationary ARCH and GARCH with t-distributed Innovations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the maximum likelihood estimators in the nonstationary ARCH and GARCH models with general t-distributed innovations. The results hold for joint estimation of (G)ARCH effects and the degrees of freedom parameter parametrizing the t-distribut......Consistency and asymptotic normality are established for the maximum likelihood estimators in the nonstationary ARCH and GARCH models with general t-distributed innovations. The results hold for joint estimation of (G)ARCH effects and the degrees of freedom parameter parametrizing the t......-distribution. With T denoting sample size, classic square-root T-convergence is shown to hold with closed form expressions for the multivariate covariances....

  12. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  13. Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits ''volatility clustering'' also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics

  14. Option valuation with the simplified component GARCH model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce the Simplified Component GARCH (SC-GARCH) option pricing model, show and discuss sufficient conditions for non-negativity of the conditional variance, apply it to low-frequency and high-frequency financial data, and consider the option valuation, comparing the model performance...

  15. Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2014-09-01

    The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

  16. Volatility estimation using a rational GARCH model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Takaishi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The rational GARCH (RGARCH model has been proposed as an alternative GARCHmodel that captures the asymmetric property of volatility. In addition to the previously proposedRGARCH model, we propose an alternative RGARCH model called the RGARCH-Exp model thatis more stable when dealing with outliers. We measure the performance of the volatility estimationby a loss function calculated using realized volatility as a proxy for true volatility and compare theRGARCH-type models with other asymmetric type models such as the EGARCH and GJR models.We conduct empirical studies of six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and find that a volatilityestimation using the RGARCH-type models outperforms the GARCH model and is comparable toother asymmetric GARCH models.

  17. GARCH Option Valuation: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Ornthanalai, Chayawat

    We survey the theory and empirical evidence on GARCH option valuation models. Our treatment includes the range of functional forms available for the volatility dynamic, multifactor models, nonnormal shock distributions as well as style of pricing kernels typically used. Various strategies...... for empirical implementation are laid out and we also discuss the links between GARCH and stochastic volatility models. In the appendix we provide Matlab computer code for option pricing via Monte Carlo simulation for nonaffine models as well as Fourier inversion for affine models....

  18. Development of extraterrestrial intelligence and physical laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskij, V. S.

    This paper considers the restrictions imposed by physical laws on the development of life and intelligence in the form of extraterrestrial civilizations. For this purpose intelligence is defined as the community of intelligent beings, joined by the exchange of mass, energy and information both between themselves and with the external medium. Due to the limitation of the velocity of exchange of information and, in particular, mass and energy exchange, the dimensions of the intelligence cannot exceed some light days, i.e. they are limited by the habitable zone about their star. It is shown that the energy consumption should not exceed the energy output of their star for the sake of preserving the cosmic near-star zone of life from energetic pollution. With the above restrictions of the energy product it takes millions of years to create an omnidirectional beacon-transmitter signals from which would be received by the contemporary antennas in all our Galaxy. It is realistic to create an omnidirectional beacon operating in the range of no more than 100-1000 light years.

  19. Bayesian Non-Parametric Mixtures of GARCH(1,1 Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W. Lau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional GARCH models describe volatility levels that evolve smoothly over time, generated by a single GARCH regime. However, nonstationary time series data may exhibit abrupt changes in volatility, suggesting changes in the underlying GARCH regimes. Further, the number and times of regime changes are not always obvious. This article outlines a nonparametric mixture of GARCH models that is able to estimate the number and time of volatility regime changes by mixing over the Poisson-Kingman process. The process is a generalisation of the Dirichlet process typically used in nonparametric models for time-dependent data provides a richer clustering structure, and its application to time series data is novel. Inference is Bayesian, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the posterior distribution is described. The methodology is illustrated on the Standard and Poor's 500 financial index.

  20. Realized GARCH: A Complete Model of Returns and Realized Measures of Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Huang, Zhuo (Albert); Shek, Howard Howan

    GARCH models have been successful in modeling financial returns. Still, much is to be gained by incorporating a realized measure of volatility in these models. In this paper we introduce a new framework for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility. The Realized GARCH...... framework nests most GARCH models as special cases and is, in many ways, a natural extension of standard GARCH models. We pay special attention to linear and log-linear Realized GARCH specifications. This class of models has several attractive features. It retains the simplicity and tractability...... to latent volatility. This equation facilitates a simple modeling of the dependence between returns and future volatility that is commonly referred to as the leverage effect. An empirical application with DJIA stocks and an exchange traded index fund shows that a simple Realized GARCH structure leads...

  1. How likely is extraterrestrial life?

    CERN Document Server

    Halley, J Woods

    2012-01-01

    What does existing scientific knowledge about physics, chemistry, meteorology and biology tell us about the likelihood of extraterrestrial life and civilizations? And what does the fact that there is currently no credible scientific evidence for the existence of extraterrestrial biospheres or civilizations teach  us? This book reviews the various scientific issues that arise in considering the question of how common extraterrestrial life is likely to be in our galaxy and whether humans are likely to detect it. The book stands out because of its very systematic organization and relatively unbiased treatment of the main open question. It covers all relevant aspects of many disciplines required to present the different   possible answers. It has and will provide undergraduates with a stimulating introduction to many of these fields at an early stage in their university careers, when they are still choosing a specialty. The difficulties and the range of possible answers to the title question are carefully addr...

  2. Nonlinear GARCH model and 1 / f noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kononovicius, A.; Ruseckas, J.

    2015-06-01

    Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1,1) process and its nonlinear modifications, reminiscent of NGARCH model. We investigate the possibility to reproduce power law statistics, probability density function and power spectral density, using ARCH family models. For this purpose we derive stochastic differential equations from the GARCH processes in consideration. We find the obtained equations to be similar to a general class of stochastic differential equations known to reproduce power law statistics. We show that linear GARCH(1,1) process has power law distribution, but its power spectral density is Brownian noise-like. However, the nonlinear modifications exhibit both power law distribution and power spectral density of the 1 /fβ form, including 1 / f noise.

  3. Volatility forecasting with the wavelet transformation algorithm GARCH model: Evidence from African stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Tahir Ismail

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The daily returns of four African countries' stock market indices for the period January 2, 2000, to December 31, 2014, were employed to compare the GARCH(1,1 model and a newly proposed Maximal Overlap Discreet Wavelet Transform (MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model. The results showed that although both models fit the returns data well, the forecast produced by the GARCH(1,1 model underestimates the observed returns whereas the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model generates an accurate forecast value of the observed returns. The results generally showed that the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model best fits returns series for these African countries. Hence the proposed MODWT-GARCH should be applied on other context to further verify its validity.

  4. The Extraterrestrial Life Debate from Antiquity to 1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Michael J.; Dowd, Matthew F.

    This chapter provides an overview of the Western historical debate regarding extraterrestrial life from antiquity to the beginning of the twentieth century. Though schools of thought in antiquity differed on whether extraterrestrial life existed, by the Middle Ages, the Aristotelian worldview of a unified, finite cosmos without extraterrestrials was most influential, though there were such dissenters as Nicholas of Cusa. That would change as the Copernican revolution progressed. Scholars such as Bruno, Kepler, Galileo, and Descartes would argue for a Copernican system of a moving Earth. Cartesian and Newtonian physics would eventually lead to a view of the universe in which the Earth was one of many planets in one of many solar systems extended in space. As this cosmological model was developing, so too were notions of extraterrestrial life. Popular and scientific writings, such as those by Fontenelle and Huygens, led to a reversal of fortunes for extraterrestrials, who by the end of the century were gaining recognition. From 1700 to 1800, many leading thinkers discussed extraterrestrial intelligent beings. In doing so, they relied heavily on arguments from analogy and such broad principles and ideas as the Copernican Principle, the Principle of Plenitude, and the Great Chain of Being. Physical evidence for the existence of extraterrestrials was minimal, and was always indirect, such as the sighting of polar caps on Mars, suggesting similarities between Earth and other places in the universe. Nonetheless, the eighteenth century saw writers from a wide variety of genres—science, philosophy, theology, literature—speculate widely on extraterrestrials. In the latter half of the century, increasing research in stellar astronomy would be carried out, heavily overlapping with an interest in extraterrestrial life. By the end of the eighteenth century, belief in intelligent beings on solar system planets was nearly universal and certainly more common than it would be by

  5. Evaluating Portfolio Value-At-Risk Using Semi-Parametric GARCH Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.V.K. Rombouts; M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.

  6. Realized Beta GARCH: A Multivariate GARCH Model with Realized Measures of Volatility and CoVolatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Voev, Valeri

    We introduce a multivariate GARCH model that utilizes and models realized measures of volatility and covolatility. The realized measures extract information contained in high-frequency data that is particularly beneficial during periods with variation in volatility and covolatility. Applying the ...

  7. Estimation of value-at-risk for energy commodities via fat-tailed GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, Jui-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Chih; Liu, Hung-Chun

    2008-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate distribution for return innovations is important in VaR applications owing to its ability to directly affect the estimation quality of the required quantiles. This study investigates the influence of fat-tailed innovation process on the performance of one-day-ahead VaR estimates using three GARCH models (GARCH-N, GARCH-t and GARCH-HT). Daily spot prices of five energy commodities (WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, heating oil 2, propane and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular) are used to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the VaR models. Empirical results suggest that for asset returns that exhibit leptokurtic and fat-tailed features, the VaR estimates generated by the GARCH-HT models have good accuracy at both low and high confidence levels. Additionally, MRSB indicates that the GARCH-HT model is more efficient than alternatives for most cases at high confidence levels. These findings suggest that the heavy-tailed distribution is more suitable for energy commodities, particularly VaR calculation. (author)

  8. GARCH and Irregularly Spaced Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meddahi, N.; Renault, E.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    An exact discretization of continuous time stochastic volatility processes observed at irregularly spaced times is used to give insights on how a coherent GARCH model can be specified for such data. The relation of our approach with those in the existing literature is studied.

  9. Bitcoin, gold and the dollar: A GARCH volatility analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the financial asset capabilities of bitcoin using GARCH models. The initial model showed several similarities to gold and the dollar indicating hedging capabilities and advantages as a medium of exchange. The asymmetric GARCH showed that bitcoin may be useful in risk management and ideal for risk averse investors in anticipation of negative shocks to the market. Overall bitcoin has a place on the financial markets and in portfolio management as it can be classified as some...

  10. 12 May 1979: 'Atom Disaster' in Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerwin, R.

    1979-01-01

    'Die Zeit', in its number 25 (15 June 79), dealt with the mass media's reporting on a fire in a laboratory of the Technical University of Munich in Garching (District Munich) of 12 May 79. Under the headline 'After the fire in Garching - sensations at any price. The fire provoked the journalists' imagination', Robert Gerwin, the press agent of the Max Planck Society, dealt with the question of whether or not the TV and newspapers' reports on this fire were extremely exaggerating, suggesting the readers a sensation which was no sensation at all. The press section of the Max Planck Society kindly gave its permission to print this article in 'brandschutz'. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  12. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  13. Modelling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model extends the Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Ter¨asvirta (2005) by including...... another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition......, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. The model is applied to a selection of world stock indices, and it is found that time is an important factor affecting...

  14. Extraterrestrial Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, M. J.

    1993-01-01

    Extraterrestrial Intelligence is intelligent life that developed somewhere other than the earth. Such life has not yet been discovered. However, scientific research, including astronomy, biology, planetary science and studies of fossils here on earth have led many scientists to conclude that such life may exist on planets orbiting at least some of the hundreds of billions of stars in our Milky Way Galaxy. Today, some researchers are trying to find evidence for extraterrestrial intelligence. This effort is often called SETI, which stands for Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. SETI researchers decided that looking for evidence of their technology might be the best way to discover other intelligent life in the Galaxy. They decided to use large radio telescopes to search the sky over a wide range of radio frequencies...

  15. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  16. RF Negative Ion Source Development at IPP Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraus, W.; McNeely, P.; Berger, M.; Christ-Koch, S.; Falter, H. D.; Fantz, U.; Franzen, P.; Froeschle, M.; Heinemann, B.; Leyer, S.; Riedl, R.; Speth, E.; Wuenderlich, D.

    2007-01-01

    IPP Garching is heavily involved in the development of an ion source for Neutral Beam Heating of the ITER Tokamak. RF driven ion sources have been successfully developed and are in operation on the ASDEX-Upgrade Tokamak for positive ion based NBH by the NB Heating group at IPP Garching. Building on this experience a RF driven H- ion source has been under development at IPP Garching as an alternative to the ITER reference design ion source. The number of test beds devoted to source development for ITER has increased from one (BATMAN) by the addition of two test beds (MANITU, RADI). This paper contains descriptions of the three test beds. Results on diagnostic development using laser photodetachment and cavity ringdown spectroscopy are given for BATMAN. The latest results for long pulse development on MANITU are presented including the to date longest pulse (600 s). As well, details of source modifications necessitated for pulses in excess of 100 s are given. The newest test bed RADI is still being commissioned and only technical details of the test bed are included in this paper. The final topic of the paper is an investigation into the effects of biasing the plasma grid

  17. PERBANDINGAN MODEL OPSI BLACKSCHOLES DAN MODEL OPSI GARCH DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riko Hendrawan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research was to compare the accuracy of Black-Scholes Opt ionModel and GARCH opt ion models for Stock opt ion ut ilizing data f rom Ast ra, BCA, Indofoodand Telkom at the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The intraday stock return of Astra, BCA, Indofoodand Telkom exhibited an overwhelming presence of volat ilit y cluster, suggesting that GARCHmodel had an ef fect which best corresponded with the actual price. The best model wasconst ructed using ARIMA model and the best lag in GARCH model was ext racted. The findingf rom this research showed that by comparing the average percentage mean squared errors ofthe GARCH Opt ion Model and the Black-Scholes Opt ion Model, the former was found moreaccurate than the lat ter. GARCH Model relat ively improved average percentage mean squarederrors of Black-Scholes Model; one month opt ion showed a twent y eight point ten percentimprovement , two month option showed twenty three point thirt y percent and three monthopt ion showed twent y percent .

  18. Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-08-01

    The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

  19. Determining the Best Arch/Garch Model and Comparing JKSE with Stock Index in Developed Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The slow movement of Indonesia economic growth in 2014 due to several factors, in internal factors; due to the high interest rates in Indonesia and external factors from the US which will raise the fed rate this year. However, JKSE shows a sharp increase trend from the beginning of 2014 until the second quarter of 2015 although it remains fluctuate but insignificant. The purpose of this research is to determine the best ARCH/ GARCH model in JKSE and stock index in developed countries (FTSE, Nasdaq and STI and then compare the JKSE with the stock index in developed countries (FTSE, Nasdaq and STI. The results obtained in this study is to determine the best model of ARCH / GARCH, it is obtained that JKSE is GARCH (1,2, while the FTSE obtains GARCH (2,2, NASDAQ produces the best model which is GARCH (1,1 and STI with GARCH (2,1, and the results of the comparison of JKSE with FTSE, NASDAQ and STI are that even though JKSE fluctuates with moderate levels but the trend shown upward trend. This is different with other stock indexes fluctuated highly and tends to have a downward trend.

  20. Conditional density estimation using fuzzy GARCH models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Bastürk, N.; Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Kruse, R.; Berthold, M.R.; Moewes, C.; Gil, M.A.; Grzegorzewski, P.; Hryniewicz, O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. Time series data exhibits complex behavior including non-linearity and path-dependency. This paper proposes a flexible fuzzy GARCH model that can capture different properties of data, such as skewness, fat tails and multimodality in one single model. Furthermore, additional information and

  1. International evidence on crude oil price dynamics. Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Hassan; Su, Lixian

    2010-01-01

    We examine the usefulness of several ARIMA-GARCH models for modeling and forecasting the conditional mean and volatility of weekly crude oil spot prices in eleven international markets over the 1/2/1997-10/3/2009 period. In particular, we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four volatility models - GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH and FIGARCH over January 2009 to October 2009. Forecasting results are somewhat mixed, but in most cases, the APARCH model outperforms the others. Also, conditional standard deviation captures the volatility in oil returns better than the traditional conditional variance. Finally, shocks to conditional volatility dissipate at an exponential rate, which is consistent with the covariance-stationary GARCH models than the slow hyperbolic rate implied by the FIGARCH alternative. (author)

  2. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  3. Hedging with futures: an application of GARCH to european electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    G. Zanotti; G. Gabbi; M. Geranio

    2009-01-01

    European electricity markets have been subject to a broad deregulation process in the last few decades. We analyse hedging policies implemented through different hedge ratios estimation. More specifically we compare naïve, ordinary least squares, and GARCH conditional variance and correlations models to test if GARCH models lead to higher variance reduction in a context of high time varying volatility as the case of electricity markets. Our results show that the choice of the hedge ratio esti...

  4. Semiparametric Inference in a GARCH-in-Mean Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    A new semiparametric estimator for an empirical asset pricing model with general nonpara- metric risk-return tradeoff and a GARCH process for the underlying volatility is introduced. The estimator does not rely on any initial parametric estimator of the conditional mean func- tion, and this feature...... facilitates the derivation of asymptotic theory under possible nonlinearity of unspecified form of the risk-return tradeoff. Besides the nonlinear GARCH-in-mean effect, our specification accommodates exogenous regressors that are typically used as conditioning variables entering linearly in the mean equation...... with the fully parametric approach and the iterative semiparametric approach using a parametric initial esti- mate proposed by Conrad and Mammen (2008). An empirical application to the daily S&P 500 stock market returns suggests that the linear relation between conditional expected return and conditional...

  5. The two frontiers of physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1986-05-15

    In March at Garching, near Munich, physicists from different walks of life together took another hard look at the two major frontiers of physics – the very large and the infinitesimally small. Organized jointly by CERN and the European Southern Observatory (ESO), the Garching 'Symposium on Cosmology, Astronomy and Fundamental Physics' was the second in a series launched at CERN in November 1983.

  6. Ranking multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. The two most widely known and used are the Scalar BEKK model of Engle and Kroner (1995) and Ding and Engle (2001), and the DCC model of Engle (2002). Some recent research has begun to

  7. Symposium on disruptive instabilities at Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lackner, K.

    1979-01-01

    The phenomenon of disruptive instabilities was investigated with a special care at the IPP at Garching. After lectures and panel sessions it appears suitable, to subdivide the disruptive phenomena into four classes: 1. The internal disruption (the socalled saw-tooth oscillators). 2. the socalled reconnection disruptions. 3. The large disruptions. 4. The small disruptions. The four appearance forms of the phenomena are briefly explained. (GG) [de

  8. Limit theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH (1,1) process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mikosch, T; Starica, C

    2000-01-01

    The asymptotic theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH(I, 1) process is provided. Special attention is given to the case when the sum of the ARCH and GARCH parameters is close to 1, that is, when one is close to an infinite Variance marginal distribution. This situation has

  9. The two frontiers of physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    In March at Garching, near Munich, physicists from different walks of life together took another hard look at the two major frontiers of physics – the very large and the infinitesimally small. Organized jointly by CERN and the European Southern Observatory (ESO), the Garching 'Symposium on Cosmology, Astronomy and Fundamental Physics' was the second in a series launched at CERN in November 1983

  10. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  11. ITER technical advisory committee meeting at Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiwara, M.

    1999-01-01

    The ITER Technical Advisory Committee meeting took place on 24-27 February at the Garching Joint Work Site. According to the discussions at the ITER meeting in Yokohama in October 1998, the Technical Advisory Committee was requested to conduct a thorough review of the document 'Options for the reduced technical objectives / reduced cost ITER'

  12. The Problem of Extraterrestrial Civilizations and Extrasolar Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickaelian, A. M.

    2015-07-01

    The problem of extraterrestrial intelligence is the best example of multidisciplinary science. Here philosophy and religion, astronomy, radiophysics, spectrography, space flights and astronautics, geology and planetology, astroecology, chemistry and biology, history and archaeology, psychology, sociology, linguistics, diplomacy, UFOs and peculiar phenomena are involved. Among these many-sided studies, astronomers have probably displayed the most progress by discovering thousands of extrasolar planets. At present, a number of search programs are being accomplished, including those with space telescopes, and planets in so-called "habitable zone" are considered as most important ones, for which various orbital and physical parameters are being calculated. As the discovery of extraterrestrial life is the final goal, a special attention is given to Earth-like planets, for the discovery of which most sensitive technical means are necessary.

  13. Modeling Covariance Breakdowns in Multivariate GARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Xin; Maheu, John M

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a flexible way of modeling dynamic heterogeneous covariance breakdowns in multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models. During periods of normal market activity, volatility dynamics are governed by an MGARCH specification. A covariance breakdown is any significant temporary deviation of the conditional covariance matrix from its implied MGARCH dynamics. This is captured through a flexible stochastic component that allows for changes in the conditional variances, covariances and impl...

  14. Assessing Efficiency of D-Vine Copula ARMA-GARCH Method in Value at Risk Forecasting: Evidence from PSE Listed Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Klepáč

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out the possibilities of using static D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model for estimation of 1 day ahead market Value at Risk. For the illustration we use data of the four companies listed on Prague Stock Exchange in range from 2010 to 2014. Vine copula approach allows us to construct high-dimensional copula from both elliptical and Archimedean bivariate copulas, i.e. multivariate probability distribution, created from process innovations. Due to a deeper shortage of existing domestic results or comparison studies with advanced volatility governed VaR forecasts we backtested D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model against the VaR rolling out of sample forecast from October 2012 to April 2014 of chosen benchmark models, e.g. multivariate VAR-GO-GARCH, VAR-DCC-GARCH and univariate ARMA-GARCH type models. Common backtesting via Kupiec and Christoffersen procedures offer generalization that technological superiority of model supports accuracy only in case of an univariate modeling – working with non-basic GARCH models and innovations with leptokurtic distributions. Multivariate VAR governed type models and static Copula Vines performed in stated backtesting comparison worse than selected univariate ARMA-GARCH, i.e. it have overestimated the level of actual market risk, probably due to hardly tractable time-varying dependence structure.

  15. Search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, P.; Billingham, J.; Wolfe, J.

    1977-01-01

    Findings are presented of a series of workshops on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life and ways in which extraterrestrial intelligence might be detected. The coverage includes the cosmic and cultural evolutions, search strategies, detection of other planetary systems, alternate methods of communication, and radio frequency interference. 17 references

  16. Tracers of the Extraterrestrial Component in Sediments and Inferences for Earth's Accretion History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyte, Frank T.

    2003-01-01

    The study of extraterrestrial matter in sediments began with the discovery of cosmic spherules during the HMS Challenger Expedition (1873-1876), but has evolved into a multidisciplinary study of the chemical, physical, and isotopic study of sediments. Extraterrestrial matter in sediments comes mainly from dust and large impactors from the asteroid belt and comets. What we know of the nature of these source materials comes from the study of stratospheric dust particles, cosmic spherules, micrometeorites, meteorites, and astronomical observations. The most common chemical tracers of extraterrestrial matter in sediments are the siderophile elements, most commonly iridium and other platinum group elements. Physical tracers include cosmic and impact spherules, Ni-rich spinels, meteorites, fossil meteorites, and ocean-impact melt debris. Three types of isotopic systems have been used to trace extraterrestrial matter. Osmium isotopes cannot distinguish chondritic from mantle sources, but provide a useful tool in modeling long-term accretion rates. Helium isotopes can be used to trace the long-term flux of the fine fraction of the interplanetary dust complex. Chromium isotopes can provide unequivocal evidence of an extraterrestrial source for sediments with high concentrations of meteoritic Cr. The terrestrial history of impacts, as recorded in sediments, is still poorly understood. Helium isotopes, multiple Ir anomalies, spherule beds, and craters all indicate a comet shower in the late Eocene. The Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary impact event appears to have been caused by a single carbonaceous chondrite projectile, most likely of asteroid origin. Little is known of the impact record in sediments from the rest of the Phanerozoic. Several impact deposits are known in the Precambrian, including several possible mega-impacts in the Early Archean.

  17. Estimating Price Volatility Structure in Iran’s Meat Market: Application of General GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Rasouli Birami

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past few years, the price volatility of agricultural products and food markets has attracted attention of many researchers and policy makers. This growing attention was started from the food price crisis in 2007 and 2008 when major agricultural products faced accelerated price increases and then rapidly decreased. This paper focused on the price volatility of major commodities related to three market levels of Iran’s meat market, including hay (the input level, calf and sheep (the wholesale level and beef and mutton (the retail level. In particular, efforts will made to find more appropriate models for explaining the behavior of volatility of the return series and to identify which return series are more volatile. The effects of good and bad news on the volatility of prices in each return series will also be studied. Materials and Methods: Different GARCH type models have been considered the best for modeling volatility of return series. Nonlinear GARCH models were introduced to capture the effect of good and bad news separately. The paper uses some GARCH type models including GARCH, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, Threshold GARCH (TGARCH, Simple Asymmetric GARCH (SAGARCH, Power GARCH (PGARCH, Non-linear GARCH (NGARCH, Asymmetric Power GARCH (APGARCH and Non-linear Power GARCH (NPGARCH to model the volatility of hay, calf, sheep, beef and mutton return series. The data on hay, calf, sheep, and beef and mutton monthly prices are published by Iran’s livestock support firm. The paper uses monthly data over the sample period of the May 1992 to the March 2014. Results and Discussion: Descriptive statistics of the studied return series show evidence of skewness and kurtosis. The results here show that all the series has fat tails. The significant p-values for the Ljung-Box Q-statistics mean that the auto-correlation exists in the squared residuals. The presence of unit roots in the return series is confirmed by the

  18. Extraterrestrial altruism evolution and ethics in the cosmos

    CERN Document Server

    2014-01-01

    Extraterrestrial Altruism examines a basic assumption of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI): that extraterrestrials will be transmitting messages to us for our benefit. This question of whether extraterrestrials will be altruistic has become increasingly important in recent years as SETI scientists have begun contemplating transmissions from Earth to make contact. Should we expect altruism to evolve throughout the cosmos, or is this only wishful thinking? Would this make biological sense? Is it dangerous to send messages to other worlds, as Stephen Hawking has suggested? Would extraterrestrial societies be based on different ethical principles? Extraterrestrial Altruism explores these and related questions about the motivations of civilizations beyond Earth, providing new insights that are critical for SETI. Chapters are authored by leading scholars from diverse disciplines—anthropology, astronomy, biology, chemistry, computer science, cosmology, engineering, history of science, law, philos...

  19. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  20. Importance of the macroeconomic variables for variance prediction: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Hou, Ai Jun; Javed, Farrukh

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long-term compone......This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long...

  1. Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. We provide an empirical comparison of alternative MGARCH models,

  2. MEMBANDINGKAN RISIKO SISTEMATIS MENGGUNAKAN CAPM-GARCH DAN CAPM-EGARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIKY AMELIAH

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In making stock investments, investors usually pay attention to the rate of return and risk of the stock investment. To calculate risk using capital asset pricing model (CAPM, GARCH, and EGARCH. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of daily closing price (daily close price, JII price index and monthly SBI rate. All data were processed using matlab 13. The research sample consisted of 6 flagship shares for the period of 2013-2017 ie ADHI, SMGR, UNTR, BSDE, ICBP, KLBF. The conclusion of the research is the beta of each stock including aggressive beta because beta greater than 1. For return CAPM GARACH and CAPM EGARCH obtained Kalbe Farma stock (KLBF has small beta and big return means GARCH and EGARCH model equally Can predict that stock KLBF shares the least risk and large returns among the six stocks.

  3. PERHITUNGAN NILAI BETA DARI BEBERAPA SAHAM UNGGULAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NI KADEK PUSPITAYANTI

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of investment in the capital market is to acquire dividends and capital gain. The fact proves that the advantage of investation risky assets is uncertain . This is because of the difficulty in analyzing and predicting Return and stock losses due to factors that affect the movement of the stock price , such as economic factors , political , social , and security. The model can be used by investors in predicting stock returns expected that Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity (GARCH. In this study calculations beta value of some leading stocks in Indonesia by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity (GARCH are presented . The data used this search is secondary data covering daily data sampled 5 shares of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk , PT Indosat Tbk , PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk , PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk , PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk. From the results described fifth beta value of these shares using the method GARCH beta greater than the market in the period from 23 September 2013 until 24 September 2014.

  4. Universalist ethics in extraterrestrial encounter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Seth D.

    2010-02-01

    If humanity encounters an extraterrestrial civilization, or if two extraterrestrial civilizations encounter each other, then the outcome may depend not only on the civilizations' relative strength to destroy each other but also on what ethics are held by one or both civilizations. This paper explores outcomes of encounter scenarios in which one or both civilizations hold a universalist ethical framework. Several outcomes are possible in such scenarios, ranging from one civilization destroying the other to both civilizations racing to be the first to commit suicide. Thus, attention to the ethics of both humanity and extraterrestrials is warranted in human planning for such an encounter. Additionally, the possibility of such an encounter raises profound questions for contemporary human ethics, even if such an encounter never occurs.

  5. On Diagnostic Checking of Vector ARMA-GARCH Models with Gaussian and Student-t Innovations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongning Wang

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the diagnostic checking of vector ARMA (VARMA models with multivariate GARCH errors. For a fitted VARMA-GARCH model with Gaussian or Student-t innovations, we derive the asymptotic distributions of autocorrelation matrices of the cross-product vector of standardized residuals. This is different from the traditional approach that employs only the squared series of standardized residuals. We then study two portmanteau statistics, called Q1(M and Q2(M, for model checking. A residual-based bootstrap method is provided and demonstrated as an effective way to approximate the diagnostic checking statistics. Simulations are used to compare the performance of the proposed statistics with other methods available in the literature. In addition, we also investigate the effect of GARCH shocks on checking a fitted VARMA model. Empirical sizes and powers of the proposed statistics are investigated and the results suggest a procedure of using jointly Q1(M and Q2(M in diagnostic checking. The bivariate time series of FTSE 100 and DAX index returns is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed portmanteau statistics. The results show that it is important to consider the cross-product series of standardized residuals and GARCH effects in model checking.

  6. Volatility in GARCH Models of Business Tendency Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuni, Dwi A. S.; Wage, Sutarman; Hartono, Ateng

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to obtain a model of business tendency index by considering volatility factor. Volatility factor detected by ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity). The ARCH checking was performed using the Lagrange multiplier test. The modeling is Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) are able to overcome volatility problems by incorporating past residual elements and residual variants.

  7. Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annestiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    A new multivariate volatility model that belongs to the family of conditional correlation GARCH models is introduced. The GARCH equations of this model contain a multiplicative deterministic component to describe long-run movements in volatility and, in addition, the correlations...

  8. Study of extraterrestrial material by means of a high sensitive mass spectrometer, 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, O.; Kaneko, K.; Kobayashi, K.; Shimamura, T.

    1975-01-01

    In this report it is described about a high sensitive mass spectrometer for measurement of isotopic abundance of extraterrestrial material. Detecting isotopic anomalies in extraterrestrial matter induced by cosmic ray or solar wind irradiation, we can obtain many informations about interplanetary and/or intersteller space. For this purpose we reform the mass spectrometer of Low Energy Physics Division of INS to improve the sensitivity and the resolution. In section I--VI some improvements of the mass spectrometer (vacuum system, ion source, collector etc.) are described. In section VII--X newly developed ion counting system is discussed. (auth.)

  9. Duties to Extraterrestrial Microscopic Organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, C. S.

    Formulating a normative axiology for the treatment of extraterrestrial microscopic organisms, should they ever be found, requires an extension of environmental ethics to beyond the Earth. Using an ethical framework for the treatment of terrestrial micro-organisms, this paper elaborates a similar ethic for the treatment of extraterrestrial microscopic organisms. An ethic of `teloempathy' allows for the moral considerability of any organism that has `interests', based on rudimentary qualities of conativism, and therefore allows for an identical treatment of all life, related or not related to life on Earth. Although, according to this ethic, individual extraterrestrial microscopic organisms have a good of their own and even `rights', at this level the ethic can only be theoretical, allowing for the inevitable destruction of many individual organisms during the course of human exploratory missions, similarly to the daily destruction of microbes by humans on Earth. A holistic teloempathy, an operative ethic, not only provides a framework for human exploration, but it also has important implications for planetary protection and proposals to implement planetary-scale atmospheric alterations on other bodies. Even prior to the discovery of extraterrestrial life, or the discovery of a complete absence of such life, this exercise yields important insights into the moral philosophy that guides our treatment of terrestrial micro-organisms.

  10. Modeling the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar using the ARCH/GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačević Radovan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of time series with conditional heteroskedasticity (changeable time variability, conditional variance instability, the phenomenon called volatility is the main task of ARCH and GARCH models. The aim of these models is to calculate some of the volatility indicators needed for financial decisions. This paper examines the performance of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model in modeling the daily changes of the log exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. Several GARCH models have been applied for modeling the daily log exchange rate returns of the euro, with a different number of parameters. The characteristic of estimated GARCH models is that the obtained coefficients of lagged squared residuals and the conditional variance parameters in the equation of conditional variance have a strong statistical significance. The sum of these two coefficients' estimates is close to a unit, which is typical for GARCH models that are applied on the data of financial assets returns. This means that the shocks in the conditional variance equation will be long lasting. The great value of the sum of these two coefficients shows that the high rates of positive or negative returns leads to a large forecasted value of the variance in the prolonged period. The asymmetrical EGARCH (1,1 model has showed the best results in modeling the euro exchange rate returns. The asymmetry term in the conditional variance equation of this model is negative and statistically significant. A negative value of this term suggests that the positive shock has less impact on the conditional variance than the negative shocks. The asymmetric EGARCH (1,1 model provides evidence of a leverage effect.

  11. Day of the week effect on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange: A non-linear GARCH analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Batsirai Winmore Mazviona

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study analysed the day of the week effect on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE by taking into account volatility of returns. The purpose of the study was to establish whether daily mean returns across a trading week differ from each other. We employ a non-linear approach in modelling the day of the week effects. In particular, we used the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH and the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH models. We used industrial and mining daily closing indices data from 19 February 2009 to 31 December 2013. The data was retrieved from the ZSE website. EViews 7 software was utilised for data analysis. In order to test the null hypothesis of equality of daily mean returns, a Wald test was carried out. The Wald F-statistic rejected the null hypothesis of equality of mean returns for the industrial index. We found the traditional negative Monday and positive Friday effect for the industrial index in GARCH (1,1 and EGARCH (1,1 models. The GARCH (1,1 detected a negative Friday effect and the EGARCH (1,1 detected negative Wednesday effect for the mining index. We found evidence of model dependency for the mining index results.

  12. Maximum likelihood unit rooting test in the presence GARCH: A new test with increased power

    OpenAIRE

    Cook , Steve

    2008-01-01

    Abstract The literature on testing the unit root hypothesis in the presence of GARCH errors is extended. A new test based upon the combination of local-to-unity detrending and joint maximum likelihood estimation of the autoregressive parameter and GARCH process is presented. The finite sample distribution of the test is derived under alternative decisions regarding the deterministic terms employed. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the newly proposed ML t-test is shown to exhibit incre...

  13. The ITER Management Advisory Committee (MAC) meeting in Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, M.

    1999-01-01

    The ITER management advisory committee meeting was held on 22-23 July 1999 in Garching, Germany. The main topics were the ITER EDA status, task status summary and work program, joint fund, information technology needs at the ITER joint work sites, the disposition of R and D components and a schedule of ITER meetings

  14. Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIn the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. In this paper, we provide an empirical comparison of a set of models,

  15. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that both distributions may forecast quite well with a slight advantage to the. GARCH(1 ... Financial time series tend to exhibit certain characteristic features such as volatility ... Heteroscedasticity-adjusted MAE to evaluate the forecasts. Chuanga et .... the Student's-t distribution or the GED with the following probability density.

  16. Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Jingzhou; Zhou, Jianting; Yang, Simon X; Li, Xiaoqing; Wang, Yu

    2018-01-19

    Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1) the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2) the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3) in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity); the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data using sensing

  17. Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingzhou Xin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA, and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH. Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1 the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2 the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3 in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity; the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data

  18. A comparison of monthly precipitation point estimates at 6 locations in Iran using integration of soft computing methods and GARCH time series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan

    2017-11-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in determining the climate of a region. Precise estimation of precipitation is required to manage and plan water resources, as well as other related applications such as hydrology, climatology, meteorology and agriculture. Time series of hydrologic variables such as precipitation are composed of deterministic and stochastic parts. Despite this fact, the stochastic part of the precipitation data is not usually considered in modeling of precipitation process. As an innovation, the present study introduces three new hybrid models by integrating soft computing methods including multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Bayesian networks (BN) and gene expression programming (GEP) with a time series model, namely generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) for modeling of the monthly precipitation. For this purpose, the deterministic (obtained by soft computing methods) and stochastic (obtained by GARCH time series model) parts are combined with each other. To carry out this research, monthly precipitation data of Babolsar, Bandar Anzali, Gorgan, Ramsar, Tehran and Urmia stations with different climates in Iran were used during the period of 1965-2014. Root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determination coefficient (R2) were employed to evaluate the performance of conventional/single MARS, BN and GEP, as well as the proposed MARS-GARCH, BN-GARCH and GEP-GARCH hybrid models. It was found that the proposed novel models are more precise than single MARS, BN and GEP models. Overall, MARS-GARCH and BN-GARCH models yielded better accuracy than GEP-GARCH. The results of the present study confirmed the suitability of proposed methodology for precise modeling of precipitation.

  19. Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Bui Quang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

  20. Empirical Results of Modeling EUR/RON Exchange Rate using ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea – Cristina PETRICĂ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study consists in examining the changes in the volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using on the one hand symmetric GARCH models (ARCH and GARCH and on the other hand the asymmetric GARCH models (EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH, since the conditional variance is time-varying. The analysis takes into account daily quotations of EUR/RON exchange rate over the period of 04th January 1999 to 13th June 2016. Thus, we are modeling heteroscedasticity by applying different specifications of GARCH models followed by looking for significant parameters and low information criteria (minimum Akaike Information Criterion. All models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of several distributions of the innovation terms such as: Normal (Gaussian distribution, Student’s t distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED, Student’s with fixed df. Distribution, and GED with fixed parameter distribution. The predominant models turned out to be EGARCH and PARCH models, and the empirical results point out that the best model for estimating daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate is EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 under the assumption of Student’s t distributed innovation terms. This can be explained by the fact that in case of EGARCH model, the restriction regarding the positivity of the conditional variance is automatically satisfied.

  1. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  2. Modelling of cayenne production in Central Java using ARIMA-GARCH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarno; Sudarno; Ispriyanti, Dwi; Suparti

    2018-05-01

    Some regencies/cities in Central Java Province are known as producers of horticultural crops in Indonesia, for example, Brebes which is the largest area of shallot producer in Central Java, while the others, such as Cilacap and Wonosobo are the areas of cayenne commodities production. Currently, cayenne is a strategic commodity and it has broad impact to Indonesian economic development. Modelling the cayenne production is necessary to predict about the commodity to meet the need for society. The needs fulfillment of society will affect stability of the concerned commodity price. Based on the reality, the decreasing of cayenne production will cause the increasing of society’s basic needs price, and finally it will affect the inflation level at that area. This research focused on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling by considering the effect of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) to study about cayenne production in Central Java. The result of empirical study of ARIMA-GARCH modelling for cayenne production in Central Java from January 2003 to November 2015 is ARIMA([1,3],0,0)-GARCH(1,0) as the best model.

  3. The relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and stock volatility in GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Chen, Ting Ting

    2016-08-01

    We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatility. The impact of trading volumes or number of transactions on volatility is measured using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We find that the GARCH effects, that is, persistence of volatility, is not always removed by adding trading volumes or number of transactions, indicating that trading volumes and number of transactions do not adequately represent the rate of information arrivals.

  4. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  5. Inscribed matter as an energy-efficient means of communication with an extraterrestrial civilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Christopher; Wright, Gregory

    2004-09-02

    It is well known that electromagnetic radiation-radio waves-can in principle be used to communicate over interstellar distances. By contrast, sending physical artefacts has seemed extravagantly wasteful of energy, and imagining human travel between the stars even more so. The key consideration in earlier work, however, was the perceived need for haste. If extraterrestrial civilizations existed within a few tens of light years, radio could be used for two-way communication on timescales comparable to human lifetimes (or at least the longevities of human institutions). Here we show that if haste is unimportant, sending messages inscribed on some material can be strikingly more energy efficient than communicating by electromagnetic waves. Because messages require protection from cosmic radiation and small messages could be difficult to find among the material clutter near a recipient, 'inscribed matter' is most effective for long archival messages (as opposed to potentially short "we exist" announcements). The results suggest that our initial contact with extraterrestrial civilizations may be more likely to occur through physical artefacts-essentially messages in a bottle-than via electromagnetic communication.

  6. The weak force and SETH: The search for Extra-Terrestrial Homochirality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDermott, A.J.

    1996-01-01

    We propose that a search for extra-terrestrial life can be approached as a Search for Extra-Terrestrial Homochirality emdash SETH. Homochirality is probably a pre-condition for life, so a chiral influence may be required to get life started. We explain how the weak force mediated by the Z 0 boson gives rise to a small parity-violating energy difference (PVED) between enantiomers, and discuss how the resulting small excess of the more stable enantiomer may be amplified to homochirality. Titan and comets are good places to test for emerging pre-biotic homochirality, while on Mars there may be traces of homochirality as a relic of extinct life. Our calculations of the PVED show that the natural L-amino acids are indeed more stable than their enantiomers, as are several key D-sugars and right-hand helical DNA. Thiosubstituted DNA analogues show particularly large PVEDs. L-quartz is also more stable than D-quartz, and we believe that further crystal counts should be carried out to establish whether reported excesses of L quartz are real. Finding extra-terrestrial molecules of the same hand as on Earth would lend support to the universal chiral influence of the weak force. We describe a novel miniaturized space polarimeter, called the SETH Cigar, which we hope to use to detect optical rotation on other planets. Moving parts are avoided by replacing the normal rotating polarizer by multiple fixed polarizers at different angles as in the eye of the bee. Even if we do not find the same hand as on Earth, finding extra-terrestrial optical rotation would be of enormous importance as it would still be the homochiral signature of life. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  7. MODEL NON LINIER GARCH (NGARCH UNTUK MENGESTIMASI NILAI VALUE at RISK (VaR PADA IHSG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I KOMANG TRY BAYU MAHENDRA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In investment, risk measurement is important. One of risk measure is Value at Risk (VaR. There are many methods that can be used to estimate risk based on VaR framework. One of them Non Linier GARCH (NGARCH model. In this research, determination of VaR used NGARCH model. NGARCH model allowed for asymetric behaviour in the volatility such that “good news” or positive return and “bad news” or negative return. Based on calculations of VaR, the higher of the confidence level and the longer the investment period, the risk was greater. Determination of VaR using NGARCH model was less than GARCH model.

  8. Extraterrestrial Metals Processing, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Extraterrestrial Metals Processing (EMP) system produces ferrosilicon, silicon monoxide, a glassy mixed oxide slag, and smaller amounts of alkali earth...

  9. Exponential GARCH Modeling with Realized Measures of Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Huang, Zhuo

    returns and volatility. We apply the model to DJIA stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index and find that specifications with multiple realized measures dominate those that rely on a single realized measure. The empirical analysis suggests some convenient simplifications......We introduce the Realized Exponential GARCH model that can utilize multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series. The model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures, and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between...

  10. Curating NASA's Past, Present, and Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbin, F. M.; Allton, J. H.; Evans, C. A.; Fries, M. D.; Nakamura-Messenger, K.; Righter, K.; Zeigler, R. A.; Zolensky, M.; Stansbery, E. K.

    2016-01-01

    The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10E "Curation of Extraterrestrial Materials", JSC is charged with "...curation of all extra-terrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions." The Directive goes on to define Curation as including "...documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for research, education, and public outreach." Here we describe some of the past, present, and future activities of the NASA Curation Office.

  11. Extraterrestrial Metals Processing, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Extraterrestrial Metals Processing (EMP) system produces iron, silicon, and light metals from Mars, Moon, or asteroid resources in support of advanced human...

  12. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  13. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiechen Tang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR and conditional value at risk (CVaR. Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  14. Cross-Sectional Distribution of GARCH Coefficients across S&P 500 Constituents: Time-Variation over the Period 2000-2012

    OpenAIRE

    David Ardia; Lennart F. Hoogerheide

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the time-variation of the cross-sectional distribution of asymmetric GARCH model parameters over the S&P 500 constituents for the period 2000-2012. We find the following results. First, the unconditional variances in the GARCH model obviously show major time-variation, with a high level after the dot-com bubble and the highest peak in the latest financial crisis. Second, in these more volatile periods it is especially the persistence of deviations of volatility from is uncondit...

  15. Inference and testing on the boundary in extended constant conditional correlation GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    We consider inference and testing in extended constant conditional correlation GARCH models in the case where the true parameter vector is a boundary point of the parameter space. This is of particular importance when testing for volatility spillovers in the model. The large-sample properties...

  16. Inflation-Theory Implications for Extraterrestrial Visitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deardoff, J.; Haisch, B.; Maccabee, B.; Puthoff, H. E.

    It has recently been argued that anthropic reasoning applied to inflation theory reinforces the prediction that we should find ourselves part of a large, galaxy-sized civilisation, thus strengthening Fermi's paradox concerning `Where are they?' Furthermore, superstring and M-brane theory allow for the possibility of parallel universes, some of which in principle could be habitable. In addition, discussion of such exotic transport concepts as `traversable wormholes' now appears in the rigorous physics literature. As a result, the `We are alone' solution to Fermi's paradox, based on the constraints of earlier 20th century viewpoints, appears today to be inconsistent with new developments in our best current physics and astrophysics theories. Therefore we reexamine and reevaluate the present assumption that extraterrestrials or their probes are not in the vicinity of Earth, and argue instead that some evidence of their presence might be found in certain high-quality UFO reports. This study follows up on previous arguments that (1) interstellar travel for advanced civilizations is not a priori ruled out by physical principles and therefore may be practicable, and (2) such advanced civilisations may value the search for knowledge from uncontaminated species more than direct, interspecies communication, thereby accounting for apparent covertness regarding their presence.

  17. The Ethical Implications for Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Jill

    2012-05-01

    Ethical frameworks seek to normatively structure our behaviour and preconstitute expectations with regards to moral activity towards each other as well as other creatures and even non-sentient objects such as the environment. This paper considers how ongoing ethical discussions relating to earth-based interactions can be used as analogies to inform nascent conversations about potential future encounters with extraterrestrial life—while also highlighting where these geocentric conversations may fail to capture the unique dynamics of potential extraterrestrial encounters. The paper specifically considers the spectrum of ethical frameworks currently used in earth-based interactions and how they might apply outside the geocentric referent; from ethics towards non- sentient life on earth such as plants and the environment; to ethics towards sentient but ‘unintelligent' life; to intelligent life nonetheless deemed less intelligent than humans. Next the paper considers interactions that we have yet to (knowingly) have encountered here on earth: the ethics of interactions with life more intelligent than ourselves; and finally the ethics of interaction with robotic ‘post-biological' forms, which some specialists in extraterrestrial communications have speculated will likely be the form of ‘creatures' to be encountered should contact with extraterrestrials ever be made. Finally the paper will address deeper philosophical-ethical questions about the significance of such an exercise in shifting ethical frameworks from an anthropocentric perspective.

  18. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  19. Implications of extraterrestrial material on the origin of life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasek, Matthew A.

    Meteoritic organic material may provide the best perspective on prebiotic chemistry. Meteorites have also been invoked as a source of prebiotic material. This study suggests a caveat to extraterrestrial organic delivery: that prebiotic meteoritic organics were too dilute to promote prebiotic reactions. However, meteoritic material provides building material for endogenous synthesis of prebiotic molecules, such as by hydrolysis of extraterrestrial organic tars, and corrosion of phosphide minerals.

  20. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smooth...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  1. Science, religion, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Wilkinson, David

    2013-01-01

    If the discovery of life elsewhere in the universe is just around the corner, what would be the consequences for religion? Would it represent another major conflict between science and religion, even leading to the death of faith? Some would suggest that the discovery of any suggestion of extraterrestrial life would have a greater impact than even the Copernican and Darwinian revolutions. It is now over 50 years since the first modern scientific papers were published on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). Yet the religious implications of this search and possible discovery have never been systematically addressed in the scientific or theological arena. SETI is now entering its most important era of scientific development. New observation techniques are leading to the discovery of extra-solar planets daily, and the Kepler mission has already collected over 1000 planetary candidates. This deluge of data is transforming the scientific and popular view of the existence of extraterrestrial intel...

  2. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the 1960s: Science in Popular Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sierra

    2012-01-01

    Building upon the advancement of technology during the Second World War and the important scientific discoveries which have been made about the structure and components of the universe, scientists, especially in radio astronomy and physics, began seriously addressing the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence in the 1960s. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) quickly became one of the most controversial scientific issues in the post Second World War period. The controversy played out, not only in scientific and technical journals, but in newspapers and in popular literature. Proponents for SETI, including Frank Drake, Carl Sagan, and Philip Morrison, actively used a strategy of engagement with the public by using popular media to lobby for exposure and funding. This paper will examine the use of popular media by scientists interested in SETI to popularize and heighten public awareness and also to examine the effects of popularization on SETI's early development. My research has been generously supported by the National Radio Astronomy Observatory.

  3. Targeting estimation of CCC-GARCH models with infinite fourth moments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard

    . In this paper we consider the large-sample properties of the variance targeting estimator for the multivariate extended constant conditional correlation GARCH model when the distribution of the data generating process has infinite fourth moments. Using non-standard limit theory we derive new results...... for the estimator stating that its limiting distribution is multivariate stable. The rate of consistency of the estimator is slower than √Τ (as obtained by the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator) and depends on the tails of the data generating process....

  4. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  5. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarter, Jill

    The search for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence is placed in the broader astronomical context of the search for extrasolar planets and biomarkers of primitive life elsewhere in the universe. A decision tree of possible search strategies is presented as well as a brief history of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) projects since 1960. The characteristics of 14 SETI projects currently operating on telescopes are discussed and compared using one of many possible figures of merit. Plans for SETI searches in the immediate and more distant future are outlined. Plans for success, the significance of null results, and some opinions on deliberate transmission of signals (as well as listening) are also included. SETI results to date are negative, but in reality, not much searching has yet been done.

  6. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  7. Using Garch-in-Mean Model to Investigate Volatility and Persistence at Different Frequencies for Bucharest Stock Exchange during 1997-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian PANAIT

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In our paper we use data mining to compare the volatility structure of high (daily and low (weekly, monthly frequencies for seven Romanian companies traded on Bucharest Stock Exchange and three market indices, during 1997-2012. For each of the 10 time series and three frequencies we fit a GARCH-in-mean model and we find that persistency is more present in the daily returns as compared with the weekly and monthly series. On the other hand, the GARCH-in-mean failed to confirm (on our data the theoretical hypothesis that an increase in volatility leads to a rise in future returns, mainly because the variance coefficient from the mean equation of the model was not statistically significant for most of the time series analyzed and on most of the frequencies. The diagnosis that we ran in order the verify the goodness of fit for the model showed that GARCH-in-mean was well fitted on the weekly and monthly time series but behaved less well on the daily time series.

  8. GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS AND GARCH EFFECTS IN STOCK RETURN DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Craig A. Depken II

    2001-01-01

    It is shown that the volume of trade can be decomposed into proportional proxies for stochastic flows of good news and bad news into the market. Positive (good) information flows are assumed to increase the price of a financial vehicle while negative (bad) information flows decrease the price. For the majority of a sample of ten split-stocks it is shown that the proposed decomposition explains more GARCH than volume itself. Using the proposed decomposition, the variance of returns for younger...

  9. NASA and ESA astronauts visit ESO. Hubble repair team meets European astronomers in Garching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-02-01

    On Wednesday, February 16, 1994, seven NASA and ESA astronauts and their spouses will spend a day at the Headquarters of the European Southern Observatory. They are the members of the STS-61 crew that successfully repaired the Hubble Space Telescope during a Space Shuttle mission in December 1993. This will be the only stop in Germany during their current tour of various European countries. ESO houses the Space Telescope European Coordinating Facility (ST/ECF), a joint venture by the European Space Agency and ESO. This group of astronomers and computer specialists provide all services needed by European astronomers for observations with the Space Telescope. Currently, the European share is about 20 of the total time available at this telescope. During this visit, a Press Conference will be held on Wednesday, February 16, 11:45 - 12:30 at the ESO Headquarters Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 2 D-85748 Garching bei Munchen. Please note that participation in this Press Conference is by invitation only. Media representatives may obtain invitations from Mrs. E. Volk, ESO Information Service at this address (Tel.: +49-89-32006276; Fax.: +49-89-3202362), until Friday, February 11, 1994. After the Press Conference, between 12:30 - 14:00, a light refreshment will be served at the ESO Headquarters to all participants. >From 14:00 - 15:30, the astronauts will meet with students and teachers from the many scientific institutes in Garching in the course of an open presentation at the large lecture hall of the Physics Department of the Technical University. It is a 10 minute walk from ESO to the hall. Later the same day, the astronauts will be back at ESO for a private discussion of various space astronomy issues with their astronomer colleagues, many of whom are users of the Hubble Space Telescope, as well as ground-based telescopes at the ESO La Silla Observatory and elsewhere. The astronauts continue to Switzerland in the evening.

  10. Curating NASA's Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections: How Do We Achieve Maximum Proficiency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbin, Francis; Evans, Cynthia; Zeigler, Ryan; Allton, Judith; Fries, Marc; Righter, Kevin; Zolensky, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10E "Curation of Extraterrestrial Materials", JSC is charged with "The curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions." The Directive goes on to define Curation as including "... documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for research, education, and public outreach." Here we describe some of the ongoing efforts to ensure that the future activities of the NASA Curation Office are working towards a state of maximum proficiency.

  11. Funding the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence with a Lottery Bond

    OpenAIRE

    Haqq-Misra, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    I propose the establishment of a SETI Lottery Bond to provide a continued source of funding for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). The SETI Lottery Bond is a fixed rate perpetual bond with a lottery at maturity, where maturity occurs only upon discovery and confirmation of extraterrestrial intelligent life. Investors in the SETI Lottery Bond purchase shares that yield a fixed rate of interest that continues indefinitely until SETI succeeds---at which point a random subset of...

  12. Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga-Haszonits, I.; Kondor, I.

    2007-11-01

    This paper investigates the efficiency of minimum variance portfolio optimization for stock price movements following the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH process proposed by Bollerslev. Simulations show that the quality of portfolio selection can be improved substantially by computing optimal portfolio weights from conditional covariances instead of unconditional ones. Measurement noise can be further reduced by applying some filtering method on the conditional correlation matrix (such as Random Matrix Theory based filtering). As an empirical support for the simulation results, the analysis is also carried out for a time series of S&P500 stock prices.

  13. Forecasting the variance and return of Mexican financial series with symmetric GARCH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fátima Irina VILLALBA PADILLA

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The present research shows the application of the generalized autoregresive conditional heteroskedasticity models (GARCH in order to forecast the variance and return of the IPC, the EMBI, the weighted-average government funding rate, the fix exchange rate and the Mexican oil reference, as important tools for investment decisions. Forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample are performed. The covered period involves from 2005 to 2011.

  14. The Search for Extraterrestrials Intercepting Alien Signals

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Monte

    2009-01-01

    In The Search for Extraterrestrials, Monte Ross explores in detail the key problems in starting a search, the programs that have failed and those that continue. He includes the fundamental considerations and the physics of the necessary laser, UV, IR and RF technologies, as well as coding and information theory considerations. The author explores future possibilities providing the reader with a comprehensive view of the many ways signals from aliens could be sent and explains why the search using RF leaves more than 99% of the electromagnetic spectrum unexamined. He also demonstrates the many parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, considering the next likely steps in this unique enterprise. Given man’s intrinsic nature to explore, the search will continue in one form or many, until success is achieved, which may be tomorrow or a millennium away. In summary, Monte Ross proposes to get around the failure of a fruitless search at radio frequencies by developing, in a precise way, the argument for searching for...

  15. Extraterrestrial seismology

    CERN Document Server

    Tong, Vincent C H

    2015-01-01

    Seismology is a highly effective tool for investigating the internal structure of the Earth. Similar techniques have also successfully been used to study other planetary bodies (planetary seismology), the Sun (helioseismology), and other stars (asteroseismology). Despite obvious differences between stars and planetary bodies, these disciplines share many similarities and together form a coherent field of scientific research. This unique book takes a transdisciplinary approach to seismology and seismic imaging, reviewing the most recent developments in these extraterrestrial contexts. With contributions from leading scientists, this timely volume systematically outlines the techniques used in observation, data processing, and modelling for asteroseismology, helioseismology, and planetary seismology, drawing comparisons with seismic methods used in geophysics. Important recent discoveries in each discipline are presented. With an emphasis on transcending the traditional boundaries of astronomy, solar, planetary...

  16. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  17. Psycholinguistics and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidija Krotenko

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The author of the article reveals the possibilities of psycholinguistics in the identifi cation and interpretation of languages and texts of Alien Civilizations. The author combines modern interdisciplinary research in psycholinguistics with the theory “Evolving Matter” proposed by Oleg Bazaluk and concludes that the identifi cation of languages and texts of Alien Civilizations, as well as the communication of terrestrial civilization with Extraterrestrial Intelligence, is in principle possible. To that end, it is necessary to achieve the required level of the modeling of neurophilosophy and to include these achievements of modern psycholinguistics studies: а language acquisition; b language comprehension; c language production; d second language acquisition. On the one hand, the possibilities of neurophilosophy to accumulate and model advanced neuroscience research; on the other hand, highly specialized psycholinguistic studies in language evolution are able to provide the communication of terrestrial civilization with Extraterrestrial Intelligence.

  18. Anthropomorphism in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence - The limits of cognition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohlmann, Ulrike M.; Bürger, Moritz J. F.

    2018-02-01

    The question "Are we alone?" lingers in the human mind since ancient times. Early human civilisations populated the heavens above with a multitude of Gods endowed with some all too human characteristics - from their outer appearance to their innermost motivations. En passant they created thereby their own cultural founding myths on which they built their understanding of the world and its phenomena and deduced as well rules for the functioning of their own society. Advancing technology has enabled us to conduct this human quest for knowledge with more scientific means: optical and radio-wavelengths are being monitored for messages by an extra-terrestrial intelligence and active messaging attempts have also been undertaken. Scenarios have been developed for a possible detection of extra-terrestrial intelligence and post-detection guidelines and protocols have been elaborated. The human responses to the whole array of questions concerning the potential existence, discovery of and communication/interaction with an extra-terrestrial intelligence share as one clear thread a profound anthropomorphism, which ascribes classical human behavioural patterns also to an extra-terrestrial intelligence in much the same way as our ancestors attributed comparable conducts to mythological figures. This paper aims at pinpointing this thread in a number of classical reactions to basic questions related to the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence. Many of these reactions are based on human motives such as curiosity and fear, rationalised by experience and historical analogy and modelled in the Science Fiction Culture by literature and movies. Scrutinising the classical hypothetical explanations of the Fermi paradox under the angle of a potentially undue anthropomorphism, this paper intends to assist in understanding our human epistemological limitations in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence. This attempt is structured into a series of questions: I. Can we be alone? II

  19. Forecasting volatility in gold returns under the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH frameworks: New evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2015-11-01

    This study employs three volatility models of the GARCH family to examine the volatility behavior of gold returns. Much of the literature on this topic suggests that gold plays a fundamental role as a hedge and safe haven against adverse market conditions, which is particularly relevant in periods of high volatility. This makes understanding gold volatility important for a number of theoretical and empirical applications, namely investment valuation, portfolio selection, risk management, monetary policy-making, futures and option pricing, hedging strategies and value-at-risk (VaR) policies (e.g. Baur and Lucey (2010)). We use daily data from August 2, 1976 to February 6, 2015 and divide the full sample into two periods: the in-sample period (August 2, 1976-October 24, 2008) is used to estimate model coefficients, while the out-of-sample period (October 27, 2008-February 6, 2015) is for forecasting purposes. Specifically, we employ the GARCH(1,1), IGARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH(1, d,1) specifications. The results show that the FIGARCH(1, d,1) is the best model to capture linear dependence in the conditional variance of the gold returns as given by the information criteria. It is also found to be the best model to forecast the volatility of gold returns.

  20. L factor: hope and fear in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Charles T.

    2001-08-01

    The L factor in the Drake equation is widely understood to account for most of the variance in estimates of the number of extraterrestrial intelligences that might be contacted by the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). It is also among the hardest to quantify. An examination of discussions of the L factor in the popular and technical SETI literature suggests that attempts to estimate L involve a variety of potentially conflicting assumptions about civilizational lifespan that reflect hopes and fears about the human future.

  1. Global Risk Evolution and Diversification: a Copula-DCC-GARCH Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Brutti Righi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we estimate a dynamic portfolio composed by the U.S., German, British, Brazilian, Hong Kong and Australian markets, the period considered started on September 2001 and finished in September 2011. We ran the Copula-DCC-GARCH model on the daily returns conditional covariance matrix. The results allow us to conclude that there were changes in portfolio composition, occasioned by modifications in volatility and dependence between markets. The dynamic approach significantly reduced the portfolio risk if compared to the traditional static approach, especially in turbulent periods. Furthermore, we verified that the estimated copula model outperformed the conventional DCC model for the sample studied.

  2. Extraterrestrial Intelligence: What Would it Mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impey, Chris

    2015-04-01

    Results from NASA's Kepler mission imply a hundred million Earth-like habitable worlds in the Milky Way galaxy, many of which formed billions of years before the Earth. Each of these worlds is likely to have all of the ingredients needed for biology. The real estate of time and space for the evolution of intelligent life is formidable, begging the question of whether or not we are alone in the universe. The implications of making contact have been explored extensively in science fiction and the popular culture, but less frequently in the serious scientific literature. Astronomers have carried out searches for extraterrestrial intelligence for over half a century, with no success so far. In practice, it is easier to search for alien technology than to discern intelligence of unknown function and form. In this talk, the modes of technology that can currently be detected are summarized, along with the implications of a timing argument than any detected civilization is likely to be much more advanced than ours. Fermi's famous question ``Where Are They?'' is as well posed now as it was sixty years ago. The existence of extraterrestrial intelligence would have profound practical, cultural, and religious implications for humanity.

  3. Information theory, animal communication, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Laurance R.; McCowan, Brenda; Johnston, Simon; Hanser, Sean F.

    2011-02-01

    We present ongoing research in the application of information theory to animal communication systems with the goal of developing additional detectors and estimators for possible extraterrestrial intelligent signals. Regardless of the species, for intelligence (i.e., complex knowledge) to be transmitted certain rules of information theory must still be obeyed. We demonstrate some preliminary results of applying information theory to socially complex marine mammal species (bottlenose dolphins and humpback whales) as well as arboreal squirrel monkeys, because they almost exclusively rely on vocal signals for their communications, producing signals which can be readily characterized by signal analysis. Metrics such as Zipf's Law and higher-order information-entropic structure are emerging as indicators of the communicative complexity characteristic of an "intelligent message" content within these animals' signals, perhaps not surprising given these species' social complexity. In addition to human languages, for comparison we also apply these metrics to pulsar signals—perhaps (arguably) the most "organized" of stellar systems—as an example of astrophysical systems that would have to be distinguished from an extraterrestrial intelligence message by such information theoretic filters. We also look at a message transmitted from Earth (Arecibo Observatory) that contains a lot of meaning but little information in the mathematical sense we define it here. We conclude that the study of non-human communication systems on our own planet can make a valuable contribution to the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence by providing quantitative general measures of communicative complexity. Studying the complex communication systems of other intelligent species on our own planet may also be one of the best ways to deprovincialize our thinking about extraterrestrial communication systems in general.

  4. SETI pioneers scientists talk about their search for extraterrestrial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Swift, David W.

    1990-01-01

    Why did some scientists decide to conduct a search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI)? What factors in their personal development predisposed them to such a quest? What obstacles did they encounter along the way? David Swift interviewed the first scientists involved in the search & offers a fascinating overview of the emergence of this modern scientific endeavor. He allows some of the most imaginative scientific thinkers of our time to hold forth on their views regarding SETI & extraterrestrial life & on how the field has developed. Readers will react with a range of opinions as broad as those concerning the likelihood of success in SETI itself. ''A goldmine of original information.''

  5. Toward a new cosmic consciousness: Psychoeducational aspects of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Torre, Gabriel G.

    2014-02-01

    This study presents a new approach to the concept of cosmic consciousness integrated in current neuroscience knowledge and discusses implications for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. It also examines different aspects related to consciousness and how it may play a key role in the understanding of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and life in the Universe and its implications. Subjects (n=116) were college students from Spain, the United States, and Italy. Subjects responded to a questionnaire comprising five different sections: (A) religious beliefs, (B) environment and general opinion, (C) astronomy, (D) contact, and (E) attention and perception. The results showed the importance of several modular aspects that affect Space awareness in humans. Preliminary results are discussed with regard to current neuroscience, factor analysis, and possible implications for the understanding of contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. The roles of education, new search strategies, and possible contact scenarios are also discussed.

  6. American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stentoft, Lars Peter

    In this paper we propose a feasible way to price American options in a model with time varying volatility and conditional skewness and leptokurtosis using GARCH processes and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. We show how the risk neutral dynamics can be obtained in this model, we interpret...... properties shows that there are important option pricing differences compared to the Gaussian case as well as to the symmetric special case. A large scale empirical examination shows that our model outperforms the Gaussian case for pricing options on three large US stocks as well as a major index...

  7. Modeling and forecasting the volatility of Islamic unit trust in Malaysia using GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Nuraini; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

    2015-10-01

    Due to the tremendous growth of Islamic unit trust in Malaysia since it was first introduced on 12th of January 1993 through the fund named Tabung Ittikal managed by Arab-Malaysian Securities, vast studies have been done to evaluate the performance of Islamic unit trust offered in Malaysia's capital market. Most of the studies found that one of the factors that affect the performance of the fund is the volatility level. Higher volatility produces better performance of the fund. Thus, we believe that a strategy must be set up by the fund managers in order for the fund to perform better. By using a series of net asset value (NAV) data of three different types of fund namely CIMB-IDEGF, CIMB-IBGF and CIMB-ISF from a fund management company named CIMB Principal Asset Management Berhad over a six years period from 1st January 2008 until 31st December 2013, we model and forecast the volatility of these Islamic unit trusts. The study found that the best fitting models for CIMB-IDEGF, CIMB-IBGF and CIMB-ISF are ARCH(4), GARCH(3,3) and GARCH(3,1) respectively. Meanwhile, the fund that is expected to be the least volatile is CIMB-IDEGF and the fund that is expected to be the most volatile is CIMB-IBGF.

  8. Who owns the Moon? extraterrestrial aspects of land and mineral resources ownership

    CERN Document Server

    Pop, Virgiliu

    2008-01-01

    This work investigates the permissibility and viability of property rights on the celestial bodies, particularly the extraterrestrial aspects of land and mineral resources ownership. In lay terms, it aims to find an answer to the question "Who owns the Moon?" After critically analyzing and dismantling with legal arguments the trivial issue of sale of extraterrestrial real estate, the book addresses the apparent silence of the law in the field of landed property in outer space, scrutinizing whether the factual situation on the extraterrestrial realms calls for legal regulations. The legal status of asteroids and the relationship between appropriation under international law and civil law appropriation are duly examined, as well as different property patterns – such as the commons regime, the Common Heritage of the Mankind, and the Frontier paradigm. Virgiliu Pop is one of world's specialists in the area of space property rights. A member of the International Institute of Space Law, Virgiliu has authored seve...

  9. Noise behavior of the Garching 30-meter prototype gravitational-wave detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoemaker, D.; Schilling, R.; Schnupp, L.; Winkler, W.; Maischberger, K.; Ruediger, A.

    1988-01-01

    The prototype gravitational-wave detector at Garching is described: in a laser-illuminated Michelson interferometer having arms 30 m in length, a folded optical path of 3 km is realized. The origin, action, and magnitude of possible noise sources are given. The agreement between the expected and measured noise is good. For a band of astrophysical interest, extending from 1 to 6 kHz, the quantum shot noise corresponding to a light power of P = 0.23 W is dominant. In terms of the dimensionless strain h the best sensitivity in a 1-kHz bandwidth is h = 3 x 10/sup -18/, comparable to the most sensitive Weber-bar-type antennas

  10. Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Zhongfu; Zhang, Jinliang; Xu, Jun; Wang, Jianhui

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel price forecasting method based on wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models. By wavelet transform, the historical price series is decomposed and reconstructed into one approximation series and some detail series. Then each subseries can be separately predicted by a suitable time series model. The final forecast is obtained by composing the forecasted results of each subseries. This proposed method is examined on Spanish and PJM electricity markets and compared with some other forecasting methods. (author)

  11. The weak force and SETH: The search for Extra-Terrestrial Homochirality

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDermott, Alexandra J.

    1996-07-01

    We propose that a search for extra-terrestrial life can be approached as a Search for Extra-Terrestrial Homochirality-SETH. Homochirality is probably a pre-condition for life, so a chiral influence may be required to get life started. We explain how the weak force mediated by the Z0 boson gives rise to a small parity-violating energy difference (PVED) between enantiomers, and discuss how the resulting small excess of the more stable enantiomer may be amplified to homochirality. Titan and comets are good places to test for emerging pre-biotic homochirality, while on Mars there may be traces of homochirality as a relic of extinct life. Our calculations of the PVED show that the natural L-amino acids are indeed more stable than their enantiomers, as are several key D-sugars and right-hand helical DNA. Thiosubstituted DNA analogues show particularly large PVEDs. L-quartz is also more stable than D-quartz, and we believe that further crystal counts should be carried out to establish whether reported excesses of L quartz are real. Finding extra-terrestrial molecules of the same hand as on Earth would lend support to the universal chiral influence of the weak force. We describe a novel miniaturized space polarimeter, called the SETH Cigar, which we hope to use to detect optical rotation on other planets. Moving parts are avoided by replacing the normal rotating polarizer by multiple fixed polarizers at different angles as in the eye of the bee. Even if we do not find the same hand as on Earth, finding extra-terrestrial optical rotation would be of enormous importance as it would still be the homochiral signature of life.

  12. Ettore Spalletti: Salle des départs a Garches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Dall'Asta

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Ettore Spalletti re-inventa nel 1996 l’obitorio dell’ospedale Raymond Poincaré a Garches - alle porte di Parigi. È uno spazio privo di simboli religiosi, in cui i corpi, posti nella bara, sono esposti all’ultimo sguardo dei familiari e degli amici. È la Salle des départs, sala delle partenze, in cui ogni uomo è chiamato a soggiornare - musulmano, cristiano, non credente – per il breve transito dal mondo della vita a quello della morte, verso una nuova vita. L’intento di Spalletti è quello di umanizzare un luogo che aiuti le persone a elaborare il lutto, infondendo pace e serenità. Da uno spazio anonimo, grazie alla forza espressiva del colore azzurro, come quello del manto di una Madonna che accoglie i suoi figli, l’artista ci fa immergere in un luogo che si presenta come l’incarnazione della purezza, diventando simbolo della promessa della trascendenza e dell’assoluto.

  13. Extraterrestrial Organic Chemistry: From the Interstellar Medium to the Origins of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohorille, Andrew; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Extraterrestrially delivered organics in the origin of cellular life. Various processes leading to the emergence of cellular life from organics delivered from space to earth or other planetary bodies in the solar system will be reviewed. The focus will be on: (1) self-assembly of amphiphilic material to vesicles and other structures, such as micelles and multilayers, and its role in creating environments suitable for chemical catalysis, (2) a possible role of extraterrestrial delivery of organics in the formation of the simplest bioenergetics (3) mechanisms leading from amino acids or their precursors to simple peptides and, subsequently, to the evolution of metabolism. These issues will be discussed from two opposite points of view: (1) Which molecules could have been particularly useful in the protobiological evolution; this may provide focus for searching for these molecules in interstellar media. (2) Assuming that a considerable part of the inventory of organic matter on the early earth was delivered extraterrestrially, what does relative abundance of different organics in space tell us about the scenario leading to the origin of life.

  14. [An encounter with extraterrestrial intelligence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisabayashi, Hisashi

    2003-12-01

    It is much easier to find extraterrestrial intelligence than to detect simple organisms living on other planets. However, it is hard to communicate with such intelligence without the mutual understanding of inter-stellar communication protocol. The radio SETI (The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) was initiated with the pioneering work of F. Drake in 1960, one year after the historical SETI paper by Cocconi and Morrison. This talk explains that SETI evolves with two bases of science; the understanding of our universe and the development of technology. Since SETI has had strong connection with radio astronomy from its early beginning, the impacts of radio astronomical findings and technological breakthrough can be seen in many aspects of the SETI history. Topics of this talk include the detection of microwave 3 K background radiation in the universe. Interstellar atomic and molecular lines found in radio-wave spectra provide the evidence of pre-biotic chemical evolution in such region. Radio telescope imaging and spectral technique are closely associated with methodology of SETI. Topics of the talk extend to new Allen Telescope Array and projected Square Kilometer Array. Recent optical SETI and the discoveries of extra solar planets are also explained. In the end, the recent understanding of our universe is briefly introduced in terms of matter, dark matter and dark energy. Even our understanding of the universe has been evolutionarily revolved and accumulated after 1960, we must recognize that our universe is still poorly understood and that astronomy and SETI are required to proceed hand in hand.

  15. Extraterrestrial Radiation Chemistry and Molecular Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Reggie L.; Moore, Marla H.

    2009-01-01

    Astronomical observations of both solar system and interstellar regions have revealed a rich chemical inventory that includes most classes of organic molecules and selected inorganics. For example, gas-phase ethylene glycol and SOz have been observed by astronomers, while solidphase detections include OCS, H2O2 , and the cyanate anion.' All of these are found in environments that are, by earthly standards, exceedingly hostile: temperatures of 10 - 100 K, miniscule densities, and near-ubiquitous ionizing-radiation fields. Beyond the simplest chemical species, these conditions have made it difficult-to-impassible to account for the observed molecular abundances using gas-phase chemistry, suggesting solid-phase reactions play an important role. In extraterrestrial environments, cosmic rays, UV photons, and magnetospheric radiation all drive chemical reactions, even at cryogenic temperatures. To study this chemistry, radiation astrochemists conduct experiments on icy materials, frozen under vacuum and exposed to sources such as keV electrons and MeV protons. Compositional changes usually are followed with IR spectroscopy and, in selected cases, more-sensitive mass-spectral techniques. This talk will review some recent results on known and suspected extraterrestrial molecules and ions. Spectra and reaction pathways will be presented, and predictions made for interstellar chemistry and the chemistry of selected solar system objects. Some past radiation-chemical contributions, and future needs, will be explored.

  16. [Extraterrestrial influences on health and disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitar, J

    1994-02-14

    As to extraterrestrial influences on man in health and disease so far only the effect of the sun and moon are known. This concerns the effect of solar radiation of different wavelengths and the effect of corpuscular solar radiation which has an impact on the condition of the terrestrial magnetic field and electric conditions in the atmosphere. Moreover there is also a question of important influences of gravitation (tides). Here the influence of the position of the moon in relation to the connecting line between sun and earth is involved. In the course of the synodic month (from new moon to the next new moon) a semilunar periodicity of different medical and geomagnetic indicators as well as meteorological ones plays a part. Based on his own research and that of others the author reaches the conclusion that extraterrestrial and terrestrial influences are interrelated and exert a mutual influence on each other and that it is not sensible to separate them strictly. Investigation of all the mentioned influences is important not only for biomedical prognosis but also for basic geophysical and meteorological research. Perspectively it would be useful to plan model experiments. The author feels it is his duty to refuse publication of different horoscopes in the mass media, whatever the intention. In the lay public this may lead to popularization of astrology which has nothing in common with serious research.

  17. PREFACE: 31st European Physical Society Conference on Plasma Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dendy, Richard

    2004-12-01

    This special issue of Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion comprises refereed papers contributed by invited speakers at the 31st European Physical Society Conference on Plasma Physics. The conference was jointly hosted by the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, by the EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion Association and by Imperial College London, where it took place from 28 June to 2 July 2004. The overall agenda for this conference was set by the Board of the Plasma Physics Division of the European Physical Society, chaired by Friedrich Wagner (MPIPP, Garching) and his successor Jo Lister (CRPP, Lausanne). It built on developments in recent years, by further increasing the scientific diversity of the conference programme, whilst maintaining its depth and quality. A correspondingly diverse Programme Committee was set up, whose members are listed below. The final task of the Programme Committee has been the preparation of this special issue. In carrying out this work, as in preparing the scientific programme of the conference, the Programme Committee formed specialist subcommittees representing the different fields of plasma science. The chairmen of these subcommittees, in particular, accepted a very heavy workload on behalf of their respective research communities. It is a great pleasure to take this opportunity to thank: Emilia R Solano (CIEMAT, Madrid), magnetic confinement fusion; Jürgen Meyer-ter-Vehn (MPQ, Garching), laser-plasma interaction and beam plasma physics; and Jean-Luc Dorier (CRPP, Lausanne), dusty plasmas. The relatively few papers in astrophysical and basic plasma physics were co-ordinated by a small subcommittee which I led. Together with Peter Norreys (RAL, Chilton), we five constitute the editorial team for this special issue. The extensive refereeing load, compressed into a short time interval, was borne by the Programme Committee members and by many other experts, to whom this special issue owes much. We are also grateful to the Local Organizing Committee

  18. Finding Extraterrestrial Life Using Ground-based High-dispersion Spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snellen, I.A.G.; Kok, R.; Poole, le R.S.; Brogi, M.; Birkby, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Exoplanet observations promise one day to unveil the presence of extraterrestrial life. Atmospheric compounds in strong chemical disequilibrium would point to large-scale biological activity just as oxygen and methane do in the Earth's atmosphere. The cancellation of both the Terrestrial Planet

  19. Research in theoretical physics. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Domokos, G.; Kovesi-Domokos, S.

    1998-06-01

    This report summarizes the research carried out under Grant DE-FG02-85ER40211. The main topics covered are: astroparticle physics at very high and ultrahigh energies; search for new physics by means of detectors of ultrahigh energy particles of extraterrestrial origin. Methods for searching in heavy quark decays for signatures of physics beyond the standard model are developed.

  20. Research in theoretical physics. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domokos, G.; Kovesi-Domokos, S.

    1998-06-01

    This report summarizes the research carried out under Grant DE-FG02-85ER40211. The main topics covered are: astroparticle physics at very high and ultrahigh energies; search for new physics by means of detectors of ultrahigh energy particles of extraterrestrial origin. Methods for searching in heavy quark decays for signatures of physics beyond the standard model are developed

  1. The Societal Impact of Extraterrestrial Life: The Relevance of History and the Social Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Steven J.

    This chapter reviews past studies on the societal impact of extraterrestrial life and offers four related ways in which history is relevant to the subject: the history of impact thus far, analogical reasoning, impact studies in other areas of science and technology, and studies on the nature of discovery and exploration. We focus particularly on the promise and peril of analogical arguments, since they are by necessity widespread in the field. This chapter also summarizes the relevance of the social sciences, particularly anthropology and sociology, and concludes by taking a closer look at the possible impact of the discovery of extraterrestrial life on theology and philosophy. In undertaking this study we emphasize three bedrock principles: (1) we cannot predict the future; (2) society is not monolithic, implying many impacts depending on religion, culture and worldview; (3) the impact of any discovery of extraterrestrial life is scenario-dependent.

  2. the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. II. Framework, strategy, and first result

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, J. T.; Griffith, R. L.; Sigurdsson, S.; Povich, M. S.; Mullan, B.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the framework and strategy of the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies, which will use the wide-field infrared surveys of WISE and Spitzer to search for these civilizations' waste heat. We develop a formalism for translating mid-infrared photometry into quantitative upper limits on extraterrestrial energy supplies. We discuss the likely sources of false positives, how dust can and will contaminate our search, and prospects for distinguishing dust from alien waste heat. We argue that galaxy-spanning civilizations may be easier to distinguish from natural sources than circumstellar civilizations (i.e., Dyson spheres), although GAIA will significantly improve our capability to identify the latter. We present a zeroth order null result of our search based on the WISE all-sky catalog: we show, for the first time, that Kardashev Type III civilizations (as Kardashev originally defined them) are very rare in the local universe. More sophisticated searches can extend our methodology to smaller waste heat luminosities, and potentially entirely rule out (or detect) both Kardashev Type III civilizations and new physics that allows for unlimited 'free' energy generation.

  3. the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. II. Framework, strategy, and first result

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, J. T.; Griffith, R. L.; Sigurdsson, S. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 525 Davey Lab, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802 (United States); Povich, M. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, 3801 West Temple Avenue, Pomona, CA 91768 (United States); Mullan, B. [Blue Marble Space Institution of Science, P.O. Box 85561, Seattle, WA 98145-1561 (United States)

    2014-09-01

    We describe the framework and strategy of the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies, which will use the wide-field infrared surveys of WISE and Spitzer to search for these civilizations' waste heat. We develop a formalism for translating mid-infrared photometry into quantitative upper limits on extraterrestrial energy supplies. We discuss the likely sources of false positives, how dust can and will contaminate our search, and prospects for distinguishing dust from alien waste heat. We argue that galaxy-spanning civilizations may be easier to distinguish from natural sources than circumstellar civilizations (i.e., Dyson spheres), although GAIA will significantly improve our capability to identify the latter. We present a zeroth order null result of our search based on the WISE all-sky catalog: we show, for the first time, that Kardashev Type III civilizations (as Kardashev originally defined them) are very rare in the local universe. More sophisticated searches can extend our methodology to smaller waste heat luminosities, and potentially entirely rule out (or detect) both Kardashev Type III civilizations and new physics that allows for unlimited 'free' energy generation.

  4. The Ĝ Infrared Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. II. Framework, Strategy, and First Result

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, J. T.; Griffith, R. L.; Sigurdsson, S.; Povich, M. S.; Mullan, B.

    2014-09-01

    We describe the framework and strategy of the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies, which will use the wide-field infrared surveys of WISE and Spitzer to search for these civilizations' waste heat. We develop a formalism for translating mid-infrared photometry into quantitative upper limits on extraterrestrial energy supplies. We discuss the likely sources of false positives, how dust can and will contaminate our search, and prospects for distinguishing dust from alien waste heat. We argue that galaxy-spanning civilizations may be easier to distinguish from natural sources than circumstellar civilizations (i.e., Dyson spheres), although GAIA will significantly improve our capability to identify the latter. We present a zeroth order null result of our search based on the WISE all-sky catalog: we show, for the first time, that Kardashev Type III civilizations (as Kardashev originally defined them) are very rare in the local universe. More sophisticated searches can extend our methodology to smaller waste heat luminosities, and potentially entirely rule out (or detect) both Kardashev Type III civilizations and new physics that allows for unlimited "free" energy generation.

  5. Beyond the Drake Equation: On the Probability of the Nature of Extraterrestrial Life Forms in Our Galaxy Today

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Harold A.

    2014-01-01

    I will discuss my research into the issues associated with the nature of any extraterrestrials that may be encountered in the future in our galaxy. This research was sparked by statements made by Stephen Hawking in 2010 regarding his fear of emitting radiation from our Earth so that an extraterrestrial intelligent civilization may be alerted to our existence in the galaxy today. While addressing issues of extraterrestrial altruism, a probabilistic equation was developed which addresses the number of extraterrestrial intelligent life forms that may exist in our galaxy today, who could use our bodies for nourishment or reproductive purposes. The equation begins with the results from a Drake Equation calculation, and proceeds by addressing such biochemical parameters as the fraction of ETIs with: dextro sugar stereo-isomers; levo amino acid stereo-isomers; similar codon interpretation; chromosomal length and, similar cell membrane structure to allow egg penetration.

  6. Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania

    2012-01-01

    Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

  7. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, M.; Ramahatana, F.; Trombe, Pierre-Julien

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting of the solar irradiance is a key feature in order to increase the penetration rate of solar energy into the energy grids. Indeed, the anticipation of the fluctuations of the solar renewables allows a better management of the production means of electricity and a better operation...... sky index show some similarities with that of financial time series. The aim of this paper is to assess the performances of a commonly used combination of two linear models (ARMA and GARCH) in econometrics in order to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance. In addition, a recursive...... regarding the statistical distribution of the error, the reliability of the probabilistic forecasts stands in the same order of magnitude as other works done in the field of solar forecasting....

  8. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Cristi Spulbar; Mihai Nitoi

    2012-01-01

    Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent peri...

  9. The Role of Extraterrestrial Materials in the Origin of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandford, Scott A.

    2016-01-01

    It has been well established for some time now that C-rich organic materials are relatively common in a number of environments in space. This is known through the telescopic detection of these materials using spectroscopy techniques in the infrared and sub-millimeter wavelength ranges and through the identification of organics in extraterrestrial materials. Extraterrestrial materials in which organics have been found include collected meteorites and interplanetary dust particles, and samples returned by NASA spacecraft from comets. These organics are produced by a variety of astrochemical processes. Despite their abiotic origins, these organic materials of are considerable interest to astrobiology for several reasons. First, organic materials of any composition are important as a means of delivering the elements C, H, O, and N to the surfaces of newly formed planets, and these elements are likely critical to the origin and subsequent evolution of life (certainly for life as we know it). In addition, it is clear that at least a portion of the organics found in space are in the form of molecules that play important roles in modern biology - for example, molecules like amino acids, amphiphiles, quinones, etc. Thus, the delivery of extraterrestrial organics to planetary surfaces brings not only bulk C, H, O, and N, but also molecular complexity in forms that are potentially useful for the origin and early evolution of life. This suggests that the production and delivery of cosmic organic compounds may have played key roles in the origin of life on Earth and, by extension, on other planets in the universe.

  10. Insights from Cyanobacterial Genomes for the Development of Extraterrestrial Photoautotrophic Biotechnologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, I. I.; Bryant, D. A.; Tringe, S. G.; Malley, K.; Sosa, O.; Sarkisova, S. A.; Garrison, D. H.; McKay, D. S.

    2010-04-01

    Using genomic and metagenomic analysis, Fe-tolerant cyanobacterial species with a large and diverse set of stress-tolerant genes, were identified as prime candidates for in situ resource utilization in a biogeoreactor at extraterrestrial outposts.

  11. Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, L.W.; Alvarez, W.; Asaro, F.; Michel, H.V.

    1980-01-01

    Platinum metals are depleted in the earth's crust relative to their cosmic abundance; concentrations of these elements in deep-sea sediments may thus indicate influxes of extraterrestrial material. Deep-sea limestones exposed in Italy, Denmark, and New Zealand show iridium increases of about 30, 160, and 20 times, respectively, above the background level at precisely the time of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions, 65 million years ago. Reasons are given to indicate that this iridium is of extraterrestrial origin, but did not come from a nearby supernova. A hypothesis is suggested which accounts for the extinctions and the iridium observations. Impact of a large earth-crossing asteroid would inject about 60 times the object's mass into the atmosphere as pulverized rock; a fraction of this dust would stay in the stratosphere for several years and be distributed worldwide. The resulting darkness would suppress photosynthesis, and the expected biological consequences match quite closely the extinctions observed in the paleontological record. One prediction of this hypothesis has been verified: the chemical composition of the boundary clay, which is thought to come from the stratospheric dust, is markedly different from that of clay mixed with the Cretaceous and Tertiary limestones, which are chemically similar to each other. Four different independent estimates of the diameter of the asteroid give values that lie in the range 10 +- 4 kilometers

  12. Religions and extraterrestrial life how will we deal with it?

    CERN Document Server

    Weintraub, David A

    2014-01-01

    In the twenty-first century, the debate about life on other worlds is quickly changing from the realm of speculation to the domain of hard science. Within a few years, as a consequence of the rapid discovery by astronomers of planets around other stars, astronomers very likely will have discovered clear evidence of life beyond the Earth. Such a discovery of extraterrestrial life will change everything.  Knowing the answer as to whether humanity has company in the universe will trigger one of the greatest intellectual revolutions in history, not the least of which will be a challenge for at least some terrestrial religions. Which religions will handle the discovery of extraterrestrial life with ease and which will struggle to assimilate this new knowledge about our place in the universe? Some religions as currently practiced appear to only be viable on Earth. Other religions could be practiced on distant worlds but nevertheless identify both Earth as a place and humankind as a species of singular spiritual re...

  13. Origin of spherule samples recovered from antarctic ice sheet-Terrestrial or extraterrestrial?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sekimoto, Shun; Takamiya, Koichi; Shibata, Seiichi [Research Reactor Institute, Kyoto University, Osaka (Japan); Kobayashi, Takayuki [College of Humanities and Sciences, Nihon University, Tokyo (Japan); Ebihara, Mitsuru [Dept. of Chemistry, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-04-15

    Thirty-eight spherules from the Antarctic ice sheet were analyzed using neutron activation analysis under two different conditions to investigate their origin. In almost all of these spherules, the contents of iron, cobalt, and manganese were determined to be 31% to 88%, 17 mg/kg to 810 mg/kg, and 0.017% to 7%, respectively. A detectable iridium content of 0.84 mg/kg was found in only one spherule, which was judged to be extraterrestrial in origin. A comparison of elemental compositions of the Antarctic spherules analyzed in this study with those of deep-sea sediment spherules and those of terrestrial materials revealed that most of the Antarctic spherules except for the sample in which iridium was detected could not be identified as extraterrestrial in origin.

  14. Long- and Short-Term Cryptocurrency Volatility Components: A GARCH-MIDAS Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Conrad

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500 realized volatility has a negative and highly significant effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. The finding is atypical for volatility co-movements across financial markets. Moreover, we find that the S&P 500 volatility risk premium has a significantly positive effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. Finally, we find a strong positive association between the Baltic dry index and long-term Bitcoin volatility. This result shows that Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to global economic activity. Overall, our findings can be used to construct improved forecasts of long-term Bitcoin volatility.

  15. Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    -run and the short-run dynamic behaviour of the volatilities. The structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time. We apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the S&P 500 composite index and traded at the New York Stock Exchange......In this paper we investigate the effects of careful modelling the long-run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure. To this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in Conditional Correlation GARCH models to change smoothly over time...... by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations. The modelling technique to determine the parametric structure of this time-varying component is based on a sequence of specification Lagrange multiplier-type tests derived in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011). The variance equations combine the long...

  16. Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

    2014-07-01

    Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

  17. Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Tsai, Hsien-Tang

    2008-01-01

    Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. (author)

  18. ASDEX contributions to the 14th European conference on controlled fusion and plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-06-01

    This report is a collection of 25 IPP Garching contributions concerning pellet refuelling, ion-cyclotron resonance heating, lower-hybrid heating and current drive, energy transport studies, particle transport studies, equilibrium and MHD, divertor physics and plasma diagnostics. The contributions have been taken up separately into the data base. (GG)

  19. Energy use, entropy and extra-terrestrial civilizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hetesi, Zsolt

    2010-01-01

    The possible number of extra-terrestrial civilizations is estimated by the Drake-equation. Many articles pointed out that there are missing factors and over-estimations in the original equation. In this article we will point out that assuming some axioms there might be several limits for a technical civilization. The key role of the energy use and the problem of the centres and periphery strongly influence the value of the Llifetime of a civilization. Our development have several edifications of the investigations of the growth of an alien civilization.

  20. Energy use, entropy and extra-terrestrial civilizations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hetesi, Zsolt, E-mail: zs.hetesi@astro.elte.h [Eoetvoes University, Department of Astronomy, Budapest, H-1518, PO Box 32 (Hungary)

    2010-03-01

    The possible number of extra-terrestrial civilizations is estimated by the Drake-equation. Many articles pointed out that there are missing factors and over-estimations in the original equation. In this article we will point out that assuming some axioms there might be several limits for a technical civilization. The key role of the energy use and the problem of the centres and periphery strongly influence the value of the Llifetime of a civilization. Our development have several edifications of the investigations of the growth of an alien civilization.

  1. An Earth-Based Equivalent Low Stretch Apparatus to Assess Material Flammability for Microgravity and Extraterrestrial Fire-Safety Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, S. L.; Beeson, H.; Haas, J. P.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this project is to modify the standard oxygen consumption (cone) calorimeter (described in ASTM E 1354 and NASA STD 6001 Test 2) to provide a reproducible bench-scale test environment that simulates the buoyant or ventilation flow that would be generated by or around a burning surface in a spacecraft or extraterrestrial gravity level. This apparatus will allow us to conduct normal gravity experiments that accurately and quantitatively evaluate a material's flammability characteristics in the real-use environment of spacecraft or extra-terrestrial gravitational acceleration. The Equivalent Low Stretch Apparatus (ELSA) uses an inverted cone geometry with the sample burning in a ceiling fire configuration that provides a reproducible bench-scale test environment that simulates the buoyant or ventilation flow that would be generated by a flame in a spacecraft or extraterrestrial gravity level. Prototype unit testing results are presented in this paper. Ignition delay times and regression rates for PMMA are presented over a range of radiant heat flux levels and equivalent stretch rates which demonstrate the ability of ELSA to simulate key features of microgravity and extraterrestrial fire behavior.

  2. Is Your Gut Conscious? Is an Extraterrestrial?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos Post, Jonathan

    2011-10-01

    This paper speculates on questions intending to be taken scientifically rather than metaphysically: "Can the human gut (enteric nervous system) be conscious?"; "Can your immune system think?"; "Could consciousness be coded in DNA?"; "What do we mean when asserting that an Extraterrestrial is Thinking, or is Conscious? We explore through reference to theory, experiment, and computational models by Christof Koch (Caltech), Barbara Wold (Caltech), and Stuart Kauffman (University of Calgary, Tampere University of Technology, Santa Fe Institute). We use a tentative new definition of thinking, designed to be applicable for humans, cetecea, corvids, artificial intelligences, and extraterrestrial intelligences of any substrate (i.e. Life as We Do Not Know It): "Thinking is the occurrence, transformation, and storage in a mind or brain (or simulation thereof) of information-bearing structures (representations) of one kind or another, such as thoughts, concept, percepts, ideas, impressions, notions, rules, schemas, images, phantasms, or subpersonal representations." We use the framework for Consciousness developed by Francis Crick and Christof Koch. We try to describe scientific goals, but discuss Philosophy sufficient to avoid naïve philosophical category errors (thus are careful not to conflate thought, consciousness, and language) Penrose, Hameroff, and Kauffman speculate (differently) that CNS consciousness is a macroscopic quantum phenomenon. Might intestinal, immune system, or genetic regulatory network dynamics exhibit emergent cooperative quantum effects? The speculations are in the context of Evolution by Natural Selection, presumed to operate throughout the Cosmos, and recent work in the foundations of Computational Biology and Quantum Mechanics.

  3. Analytical SuperSTEM for extraterrestrial materials research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, J P; Dai, Z R

    2009-09-08

    Electron-beam studies of extraterrestrial materials with significantly improved spatial resolution, energy resolution and sensitivity are enabled using a 300 keV SuperSTEM scanning transmission electron microscope with a monochromator and two spherical aberration correctors. The improved technical capabilities enable analyses previously not possible. Mineral structures can be directly imaged and analyzed with single-atomic-column resolution, liquids and implanted gases can be detected, and UV-VIS optical properties can be measured. Detection limits for minor/trace elements in thin (<100 nm thick) specimens are improved such that quantitative measurements of some extend to the sub-500 ppm level. Electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) can be carried out with 0.10-0.20 eV energy resolution and atomic-scale spatial resolution such that variations in oxidation state from one atomic column to another can be detected. Petrographic mapping is extended down to the atomic scale using energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) and energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy (EFTEM) imaging. Technical capabilities and examples of the applications of SuperSTEM to extraterrestrial materials are presented, including the UV spectral properties and organic carbon K-edge fine structure of carbonaceous matter in interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), x-ray elemental maps showing the nanometer-scale distribution of carbon within GEMS (glass with embedded metal and sulfides), the first detection and quantification of trace Ti in GEMS using EDS, and detection of molecular H{sub 2}O in vesicles and implanted H{sub 2} and He in irradiated mineral and glass grains.

  4. Miniature Time of Flight Mass Spectrometer for Space and Extraterrestrial Applications, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The PI has developed a miniature time-of-flight mass spectrometer (TOF-MS), which can be op-timized for space and extraterrestrial applications, by using a...

  5. Should investors diversify their portfolios with stocks from major trading countries? A comparative multivariate GARCH-DCC and wavelet correlation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dwihasri, Dhaifina; Masih, Mansur

    2015-01-01

    The existing literature have evaluated the performance of stock markets without taking into account the time-varying correlations and different investment horizons of the investors. The present paper attempts to investigate to what extent the Indonesian sharia stock returns can earn portfolio diversification benefits if they are trading with sharia stocks from its major trading partners (China, Japan, United States). The recent Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation, the Continuou...

  6. New insights in the bacterial spore resistance to extreme terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Ralf; Horneck, Gerda; Reitz, Guenther

    Based on their unique resistance to various space parameters, Bacillus endospores are one of the model systems used for astrobiological studies. The extremely high resistance of bacterial endospores to environmental stress factors has intrigued researchers since long time and many characteristic spore features, especially those involved in the protection of spore DNA, have already been uncovered. The disclosure of the complete genomic sequence of Bacillus subtilis 168, one of the often used astrobiological model system, and the rapid development of tran-scriptional microarray techniques have opened new opportunities of gaining further insights in the enigma of spore resistance. Spores of B. subtilis were exposed to various extreme ter-restrial and extraterrestrial stressors to reach a better understanding of the DNA protection and repair strategies, which them to cope with the induced DNA damage. Following physical stress factors of environmental importance -either on Earth or in space -were selected for this thesis: (i) mono-and polychromatic UV radiation, (ii) ionizing radiation, (iii) exposure to ultrahigh vacuum; and (iv) high shock pressures simulating meteorite impacts. To reach a most comprehensive understanding of spore resistance to those harsh terrestrial or simulated extraterrestrial conditions, a standardized experimental protocol of the preparation and ana-lyzing methods was established including the determination of the following spore responses: (i) survival, (ii) induced mutations, (iii) DNA damage, (iv) role of different repair pathways by use of a set of repair deficient mutants, and (v) transcriptional responses during spore germi-nation by use of genome-wide transcriptome analyses and confirmation by RT-PCR. From this comprehensive set of data on spore resistance to a variety of environmental stress parameters a model of a "built-in" transcriptional program of bacterial spores in response to DNA damaging treatments to ensure DNA restoration

  7. Structural Response of the Earth's Crust to an Extra-Terrestrial Source of Stress by Identifying its Characteristic Pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, B.

    2016-12-01

    The earth's crust is a geodynamic realm, which is constantly evolving. Due to its dynamic nature, the crust is constantly being subjected to remodelling. The earth's crustal response to stress is a result of isostatic compensation. The crust is also a living proof of yesteryears' dynamics. Extra-terrestrial agents of deformation refers to meteorites, asteroids etc. These are catastrophic events that influence a larger area (considering larger impact bodies). They effect the crust from outside, hence leave behind very specific structural signatures.Consider an extra-terrestrial object impacting the earth's crust. The problem can be broken down into 3 parts: Pre Impact (kinematics of the object and nature of surface of impact); Syn Impact (dissipation of energy and formation of crater); and Post Impact (structural response, geophysical anomalies and effect on biota)Upon impact, the projectile penetrates the earth's crust to a depth of twice its diameter. Shock waves generated due impact propagate in all possible directions. The reflected waves cause complete melting and vaporization of the impact body. At the same time, increased internal energy of the system melts the target rock. Depending on the thickness and density of crustal matter, its' interaction with the mantle is determined. Data collection from such impact sites is the first step towards its theoretical modeling. Integrating geophysical (seismic, magnetic), paleomagnetic, geochemical and geo-chronological data one can determine the kinematic parameters that governed the event. A working model that illustrates the crustal responses to extraterrestrial stress of extreme magnitude cannot be qualitative. Hence the most fundamental thing at this point is quantification of these parameters. The variables form a `mass-energy equation', a simple theorem in Classical Physics. This project is directed to give the equation its shape. The equation will be the foundation on which the simulation model will rest. Mass

  8. THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC NEWS ON THE EURO/RON EXCHANGE RATE: A GARCH APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Niţoi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Within this study we try to capture the impact of political news and economic news from euro area on the exchange rate between Romanian currency and euro. In order to do this we used a GARCH model. As we observed, both variables influence the exchange rate, this fact implying national currency depreciation and a volatility growth. The political news and the economic news positively affect the euro/ron exchange rate volatility. The two factors conjugation, as it has happened in the recent period is to be avoided because it can have financial and economic consequences with a very high cost for Romania.

  9. Exploring the Human Ecology of the Younger Dryas Extraterrestrial Impact Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennett, D. J.; Erlandson, J. M.; Braje, T. J.; Culleton, B. J.

    2007-05-01

    Several lines of evidence now exist for a major extraterrestrial impact event in North America at 12.9 ka (the YDB). This impact partially destabilized the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets, triggered abrupt Younger Dryas cooling and extensive wildfires, and contributed to megafaunal extinction. This event also occurred soon after the well established colonization of the Americas by anatomically modern humans. Confirmation of this event would represent the first near-time extraterrestrial impact with significant effects on human populations. These likely included widespread, abrupt human mortality, population displacement, migration into less effected or newly established habitats, loss of cultural traditions, and resource diversification in the face of the massive megafaunal extinction and population reductions in surviving animal populations. Ultimately, these transformations established the context for the special character of plant and animal domestication and the emergence of agricultural economies in North America. We explore the Late Pleistocene archaeological record in North America within the context of documented major biotic changes associated with the YDB in North America and of the massive ecological affects hypothesized for this event.

  10. The Younger Dryas climate change: was it caused by an extraterrestrial impact?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hoesel, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Younger Dryas is an abrupt cooling event at the end of the last Glacial associated to a change in ocean circulation. According to the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis, however, one or more extraterrestrial airbursts or impacts occuring around 12.8 ka caused the Younger Dryas cooling, extensive

  11. FINDING EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE USING GROUND-BASED HIGH-DISPERSION SPECTROSCOPY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snellen, I. A. G.; Le Poole, R.; Brogi, M.; Birkby, J.; De Kok, R. J.

    2013-01-01

    Exoplanet observations promise one day to unveil the presence of extraterrestrial life. Atmospheric compounds in strong chemical disequilibrium would point to large-scale biological activity just as oxygen and methane do in the Earth's atmosphere. The cancellation of both the Terrestrial Planet Finder and Darwin missions means that it is unlikely that a dedicated space telescope to search for biomarker gases in exoplanet atmospheres will be launched within the next 25 years. Here we show that ground-based telescopes provide a strong alternative for finding biomarkers in exoplanet atmospheres through transit observations. Recent results on hot Jupiters show the enormous potential of high-dispersion spectroscopy to separate the extraterrestrial and telluric signals, making use of the Doppler shift of the planet. The transmission signal of oxygen from an Earth-twin orbiting a small red dwarf star is only a factor of three smaller than that of carbon monoxide recently detected in the hot Jupiter τ Boötis b, albeit such a star will be orders of magnitude fainter. We show that if Earth-like planets are common, the planned extremely large telescopes can detect oxygen within a few dozen transits. Ultimately, large arrays of dedicated flux-collector telescopes equipped with high-dispersion spectrographs can provide the large collecting area needed to perform a statistical study of life-bearing planets in the solar neighborhood.

  12. Incertidumbre, crecimiento del producto, inflación y depreciación cambiaria en México: Evidencia de modelos GARCH multivariados

    OpenAIRE

    Rodolfo Cermeño; Benjamín Oliva

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we investigate empirically the relationship among conditional mean and variances of exchange rate depreciation, inflation and output growth in Mexico using a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model (MGARCH-M). The study is performed with monthly data over the period 1993-2009. The results support the existence of a positive relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility as well as a negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on output growth. On the other hand, no...

  13. Volatility Modeling, Seasonality and Risk-Return Relationship in GARCH-in-Mean Framework: The Case of Indian Stock and Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Brajesh Kumar; Singh, Priyanka

    2008-01-01

    This paper is based on an empirical study of volatility, risk premium and seasonality in risk-return relation of the Indian stock and commodity markets. This investigation is conducted by means of the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the mean model (GARCH-in-Mean) introduced by Engle et al. (1987). A systematic approach to model volatility in returns is presented. Volatility clustering and asymmetric nature is examined for Indian stock and commodity markets. The risk-r...

  14. Mainstream Media and Social Media Reactions to the Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Morris

    The rise of online social media (such as Facebook and Twitter) has overturned traditional top-down and stovepiped channels for mass communications. As social media have risen, traditional media sources have been steadily crippled by economic problems, resulting in a loss of capabilities and credibility. Information can propagate rapidly without the inclusion of traditional editorial checks and controls. Mass communications strategies for any type of major announcement must account for this new media landscape. Scientists announcing the discovery of extraterrestrial life will trigger a multifaceted and unpredictable percolation of the story through the public sphere. They will also potentially struggle with misinformation, rumours and hoaxes. The interplay of official announcements with the discussions of an extraterrestrial discovery on social media has parallels with traditional theories of mass communications. A wide spectrum of different messages is likely to be received by different segments of the community, based on their usage patterns of various media and online communications. The presentation and interpretation of a discovery will be hotly debated and contested within online media environments. In extreme cases, this could lead to "editorial wars" on collaborative media projects as well as cyber-attacks on certain online services and individuals. It is unlikely that a clear and coherent message can be propagated to a near-universal level. This has the potential to contribute to inappropriate reactions in some sectors of the community. Preventing unnecessary panic will be a priority. In turn, the monitoring of online and social media will provide a useful tool for assessing public reactions to a discovery of extraterrestrial life. This will help to calibrate public communications strategies following in the wake of an initial announcement.

  15. Siderophilic Cyanobacteria for the Development of Extraterrestrial Photoautotrophic Biotechnologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, I. I.; McKay, D. S.

    2010-01-01

    In-situ production of consumables (mainly oxygen) using local resources (In-Situ Resource Utilization-ISRU) will significantly facilitate current plans for human exploration and settlement of the solar system, starting with the Moon. With few exceptions, nearly all technologies developed to date have employed an approach based on inorganic chemistry. None of these technologies include concepts for integrating the ISRU system with a bioregenerative life support system and a food production system. Therefore, a new concept based on the cultivation of cyanobacteria (CB) in semi-closed biogeoreactor, linking ISRU, a biological life support system, and food production, has been proposed. The key feature of the biogeoreactor is to use lithotrophic CB to extract many needed elements such as Fe directly from the dissolved regolith and direct them to any technological loop at an extraterrestrial outpost. Our studies showed that siderophilic (Fe-loving) CB are capable to corrode lunar regolith stimulants because they secrete chelating agents and can tolerate [Fe] up to 1 mM. However, lunar and Martian environments are very hostile (very high UV and gamma-radiation, extreme temperatures, deficit of water). Thus, the selection of CB species with high potential for extraterrestrial biotechnologies that may be utilized in 15 years must be sponsored by NASA as soon as possible. The study of the genomes of candidate CB species and the metagenomes of the terrestrial environments which they inhabit is critical to make this decision. Here we provide preliminary results about peculiarities of the genomes of siderophilic CB revealed by analyzing the genome of siderophilic cyanobacterium JSC-1 and the metagenome of iron depositing hot spring (IDHS) Chocolate Pots (Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA). It has been found that IDHS are richer with ferrous iron than the majority of hot springs around the world. Fe2+ is known to increase the magnitude of oxidative stress in prokaryotes

  16. Which colors would extraterrestrial civilizations use to transmit signals?: The ;magic wavelengths; for optical SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narusawa, Shin-ya; Aota, Tatusya; Kishimoto, Ryo

    2018-04-01

    In the case of radio SETI, there are predicted frequencies which extraterrestrial beings select to send messages to other civilizations. Those are called ;magic frequencies. Considering the optical region, terrestrial technologies can not transmit arbitrary wavelengths of high-power optical lasers, easily. In this article, we discuss communications among civilizations with the same level of technology as us to enhance the persuasive power. It might be possible to make a reasonable assumption about the laser wavelengths transmitted by extraterrestrial intelligences to benefit optical SETI (OSETI) methods. Therefore, we propose some ;magic wavelengths; for spectroscopic OSETI observations in this article. From the senders point of view, we argue that the most favorable wavelength used for interstellar communication would be the one of YAG lasers, at 1.064 μm or its Second Harmonic Generation (532.1 nm). On the contrary, there are basic absorption lines in the optical spectra, which are frequently observed by astrophysicists on Earth. It is possible that the extraterrestrials used lasers, which wavelengths are tuned to such absorption lines for sending messages. In that case, there is a possibility that SHG and/or Sum Frequency Generation of YAG and YLF lasers are used. We propose three lines at, 393.8 nm (near the Ca K line), 656.5 nm (near the Hα line) and 589.1 nm (Na D2 line) as the magic wavelengths.

  17. Extraterrestrial materials examined by mean of nuclear microprobe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodja, H.; Smith, T.; Engrand, C.; Herzog, G.; Raepsaet, C.

    2013-07-01

    Comet fragments, micrometeorites, and Interplanetary Dust Particles (IDPs) are small objects (purpose, we need instruments and methods that provide both microanalysis and detailed imaging. In these respects, the nuclear microprobe offers many potential advantages: (i) the spatial resolution, ∼1 μm is well-matched to the typical object dimensions, (ii) with some reservations, it is non-destructive when carefully conducted, (iii) it is quantitative, and especially sensitive for light elements. At the Saclay nuclear microprobe, we have been performing analyses of extraterrestrial objects for many years. We review some of these studies, emphasizing the specific requirements for successful analyses. We also discuss the potential pitfalls that may be encountered.

  18. Limits on diffuse fluxes of high energy extraterrestrial neutrinos with the AMANDA-B10 detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahrens, J.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S.W.; Bay, R.C.; Becka, T.; Becker, K.-H.; Bernardini, E.; Bertrand, D.; Binon, F.; Boeser, S.; Botner, O.; Bouchta, A.; Bouhali, O.; Burgess, T.; Carius, S.; Castermans, T.; Chirkin, D.; Conrad, J.; Cooley, J.; Cowen, D.F.; Davour, A.; De Clercq, C.; DeYoung, T.; Desiati, P.; Doksus, P.; Ekstrom, P.; Feser, T.; Gaisser, T.K.; Ganugapati, R.; Gaug, M.; Geenen, H.; Gerhardt, L.; Goldschmidt, A.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hanson, K.; Hardtke, R.; Hauschildt, T.; Hellwig, M.; Herquet, P.; Hill, G.C.; Hulth, P.O.; Hughey, B.; Hultqvist, K.; Hundertmark, S.; Jacobsen, J.; Karle, A.; Kuehn, K.; Kim, J.; Kopke, L.; Kowalski, M.; Lamoureux, J.I.; Leich, H.; Leuthold, M.; Lindahl, P.; Liubarsky, I.; Madsen, J.; Mandli, K.; Marciniewski, P.; Matis, H.S.; McParland, C.P.; Messarius, T.; Miller, T.C.; Minaeva, Y.; Miocinovic, P.; Mock, P.C.; Morse, R.; Neunhoffer, T.; Niessen, P.; Nygren, D.R.; Ogelman, H.; Olbrechts, P.; Perez de los Heros, C.; Pohl, A.C.; Porrata, R.; Price, P.B.; Przybylski, G.T.; Rawlins, K.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Ribordy, M.; Richter, S.; Rodriguez Martino, J.; Romenesko, P.; Ross, D.; Sander, H.-G.; Schlenstedt, S.; Schinarakis, K.; Schmidt, T.; Schneider, D.; Schwarz, R.; Silvestri, A.; Solarz, M.; Stamatikos, M.; Spiczak, G.M.; Spiering, C.; Steele, D.; Steffen, P.; Stokstad, R.G.; Sulanke, K.-H.; Taboada, I.; Tilav, S.; Wagner, W.; Walck, C.; Wang, Y.-R.; Wiebusch, C.H.; Wiedemann, C.; Wischnewski, R.; Wissing, H.; Woschnagg, K.; Wu, W.; Yodh, G.; Young, S.

    2003-01-01

    Data from the AMANDA-B10 detector taken during the austral winter of 1997 have been searched for a diffuse flux of high energy extraterrestrial muon-neutrinos, as predicted from, e.g., the sum of all active galaxies in the universe. This search yielded no excess events above those expected from the background atmospheric neutrinos, leading to upper limits on the extraterrestrial neutrino flux. For an assumed E -2 spectrum, a 90 percent classical confidence level upper limit has been placed at a level E 2 Phi(E) = 8.4 x 10 -7 GeV cm -2 s -1 1 sr -1 (for a predominant neutrino energy range 6-1000 TeV) which is the most restrictive bound placed by any neutrino detector. When specific predicted spectral forms are considered, it is found that some are excluded

  19. Habitability and the Possibility of Extraterrestrial Life in the Early Telescope Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    Early telescopic observations of the Moon and planets prompted great interest in the already-existing debate about the possibility of life on the Moon and other worlds. New observations of the lunar surface, revealing an apparently Earth-like terrain and possibly the presence of bodies of water, were often considered in relation to their implications for the existence of lunar inhabitants. This depended upon establishing what constituted the fundamental requirements for life and the boundaries of habitability. The growing support for the heliocentric Copernican astronomy was also changing perceptions of the relationships between the Earth, the Moon, and the planets. Works such as Johannes Kepler’s Somnium and John Wilkins’ The Discovery of a World in the Moone presented views of extraterrestrial life that were shifting from the supernatural to the natural, in correspondence with the celestial bodies’ new positions in the cosmos. This paper considers how these and other works from the early telescope era reveal changes in the nature of astronomical speculation about extraterrestrial life and the conditions construed as “habitability,” and what significance that history has for us today in the new era of extrasolar planet discovery.

  20. Terrestrial and extraterrestrial superresonators as drivers for an inertial confinement fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seifritz, W.; Vath, W.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on the recirculating power fraction of a laser-driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) reactor which can be reduced by using laser diodes to pump a neodymium solid-state laser. To overcome the high costs of two-dimensional arrays of laser diodes, two types of superresonators are proposed: a terrestrially based one and an extraterrestrially based one on a geostationary orbit. Both are designed in such a way that a sequence of short laser pulses (10 to 20 ns wide), each with an energy of 5 to 10 MJ and a frequency of 10 Hz, are produced to trigger a deuterium-tritium ICF reactor. The terrestrial superresonator needs a much smaller number of two-dimensional laser diode arrays than a conventionally pumped once-through solid-state laser system, and the extraterrestrial resonator is pumped by means of concentrated solar radiation. In practice, at least an order of magnitude fewer laser diodes and crystalline calcium fluoride gain media are needed to meet the requirements of a laser driver for an ICF reactor. If, finally, a liquid neodymium laser system could be used for an ICF reactor, the cooling of the gain slabs would be facilitated substantially

  1. Planetary Protection Knowledge Gaps for Human Extraterrestrial Missions: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Race, Margaret S. (Editor); Johnson, James E. (Editor); Spry, James A. (Editor); Siegel, Bette; Conley, Catharine A.

    2015-01-01

    This report on Planetary Protection Knowledge Gaps for Human Extraterrestrial Missions summarizes the presentations, deliberations and findings of a workshop at NASA Ames Research Center, March 24-26, 2015, which was attended by more than 100 participants representing a diverse mix of science, engineering, technology, and policy areas. The main objective of the three-day workshop was to identify specific knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to make incremental progress towards the development of NASA Procedural Requirements (NPRs) for Planetary Protection during human missions to Mars.

  2. The G-HAT Search for Advanced Extraterrestrial Civilizations: The Reddest Extended WISE Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, Jessica; Povich, Matthew S.; Wright, Jason; Griffith, Roger; Sigurdsson, Steinn; Mullan, Brendan L.

    2015-01-01

    Freeman Dyson (1960) theorized how to identify possible signatures of advanced extra-terrestrial civilizations by their waste heat, an inevitable byproduct of a civilization using a significant fraction of the luminosity from their host star. If a civilizations could tap the starlight throughout their host galaxy their waste heat would be easily detectable by recent infrared surveys. The Glimpsing Heat from Alien Technologies (G-HAT) pilot project aims to place limits on the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations at pan-galactic scales. We present results from the G-HAT cleaned catalog of 563 extremely red, extended high Galactic latitude (|b| ≥ 10) sources from the WISE All-Sky Catalog. Our catalog includes sources new to the scientific literature along with well-studied objects (e.g. starburst galaxies, AGN, and planetary nebulae) that exemplify extreme WISE colors. Objects of particular interest include a supergiant Be star (48 Librae) surrounded by a resolved, mid-infrared nebula, possibly indicating dust in the stellar wind ejecta, and a curious cluster of seven extremely red WISE sources (associated with IRAS 04287+6444) that have no optical counterparts.

  3. If technological intelligent extraterrestrials exist, what biological traits are de rigueur

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, E. R.

    2018-05-01

    If extraterrestrials exist in the depths of cosmic space, and are capable of interstellar communications, even space flight, there is no requirement that they be humanoid in form. However, certain humanoid capabilities would be advantageous for tool fashioning and critical to operating space craft as well as functioning under the disparate extreme conditions under which they may be forced to operate. They would have to be "gas breathing". The reasonable assumption that life based upon the same elements as Earth life requiring water stems from the unique properties of water that no other similar low molecular weight nonmetal hydride offers. Only water offers the diversity of chemical properties and reactivity, including the existence of the three common physical states within a limited temperature range of service to life, avoiding the issues presented by any alternatives. They must, like us, possess a large, abstract-thinking brain, and probably possess at least all the fundamental senses that humankind possess. They would also be carbon-based life, using oxygen as the electron sink of their biochemistry for the reasons considered. They most likely are homeothermic as us, though they may not necessarily be mammalian as we are. Their biochemistry could differ some from ours, perhaps presenting contact hazards for both species as discussed.

  4. Search for extraterrestrial life: recent developments. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papagiannis, M D [ed.

    1985-01-01

    Seventy experts from 20 different countries discuss the many interrelated aspects of the search for extraterrestrial life, including the search for other planetary systems where life may originate and evolve, the widespread presence of complex prebiotic molecules in our Solar System and in interstellar space which could be precursors of life, and the universal aspects of the biological evolution on Earth. They also discuss the nearly 50 radio searches that were undertaken in the last 25 years, the technological progress that has occurred in this period, and the plans for the future including the comprehensive SETI search program that NASA is now preparing for the 1990's. Extensive introductions by the Editor to each of the 8 sections, make this volume friendly even to the non-specialist who has a genuine interest for this new field. 549 refs.; 84 figs.; 21 tabs.

  5. Max-Planck-Institute for Nuclear Physics, Heidelberg. Annual report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klapdor-Kleingrothaus, H.V.; Kiko, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Institute's activities cover basic research work in nuclear physics and particle physics and in cosmophysics. The nuclear physics department reports experimental and theoretical investigations of the structure of atomic nuclei and hadrons, including technical developments on accelerators and storage rings and work on highly charged ions, particle detectors, ion implantations, ionometry and proton-induced X-ray spectroscopy. The cosmophysics department reports studies into the formation of the planetary system, of the comets, the interstellar medium, the cosmic radiation, the extraterrestrial matter, solar neutrions, planetary atmosphere, the chemistry of the stratosphere, and archeometry. (DG) [de

  6. SPE (tm) regenerative hydrogen/oxygen fuel cells for extraterrestrial surface and microgravity applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcelroy, J. F.

    1990-01-01

    Viewgraphs on SPE regenerative hydrogen/oxygen fuel cells for extraterrestrial surface and microgravity applications are presented. Topics covered include: hydrogen-oxygen regenerative fuel cell energy storage system; electrochemical cell reactions; SPE cell voltage stability; passive water removal SPE fuel cell; fuel cell performance; SPE water electrolyzers; hydrophobic oxygen phase separator; hydrophilic/electrochemical hydrogen phase separator; and unitized regenerative fuel cell.

  7. Are we alone: The possibility of extraterrestrial civilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, R. T.; Trefil, J. S.

    The book explores the possibility of extraterrestrial (ET) intelligence. The formation of stars and planetary systems, the evolution of planetary atmospheres and the evolution of life are reviewed. The possibilities of interstellar communication, ET colonization of other star systems, in addition to earth's colonization of near-earth space are discussed. The state of the earth's depleting energy sources and current technology are used to show why some scientists believe that earth will be colonizing in space within the next century. Current methods of searching for ET intelligence are reviewed, and preliminary designs for various space habitats, including the torus, and discussed, taking into consideration problems that would be encountered. The importance of space colonies for the existence and expansion of the human race is emphasized.

  8. Isotopic evidence for extraterrestrial non- racemic amino acids in the Murchison meteorite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, M. H.; Macko, S. A.

    1997-09-01

    Many amino acids contain an asymmetric centre, occurring as laevorotatory, L, or dextrorotatory, D, compounds. It is generally assumed that abiotic synthesis of amino acids on the early Earth resulted in racemic mixtures (L- and D-enantiomers in equal abundance). But the origin of life required, owing to conformational constraints, the almost exclusive selection of either L- or D-enantiomers, and the question of why living systems on the Earth consist of L-enantiomers rather than D-enantiomers is unresolved. A substantial fraction of the organic compounds on the early Earth may have been derived from comet and meteorite impacts. It has been reported previously that amino acids in the Murchison meteorite exhibit an excess of L-enantiomers, raising the possibility that a similar excess was present in the initial inventory of organic compounds on the Earth. The stable carbon isotope compositions of individual amino acids in Murchison support an extraterrestrial origin-rather than a terrestrial overprint of biological amino acids-although reservations have persisted (see, for example, ref. 9). Here we show that individual amino-acid enantiomers from Murchison are enriched in 15N relative to their terrestrial counterparts, so confirming an extraterrestrial source for an L-enantiomer excess in the Solar System that may predate the origin of life on the Earth.

  9. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  10. Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio: Using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH-EVT-Copula model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zong-Run; Chen, Xiao-Hong; Jin, Yan-Bo; Zhou, Yan-Ju

    2010-11-01

    This paper introduces GARCH-EVT-Copula model and applies it to study the risk of foreign exchange portfolio. Multivariate Copulas, including Gaussian, t and Clayton ones, were used to describe a portfolio risk structure, and to extend the analysis from a bivariate to an n-dimensional asset allocation problem. We apply this methodology to study the returns of a portfolio of four major foreign currencies in China, including USD, EUR, JPY and HKD. Our results suggest that the optimal investment allocations are similar across different Copulas and confidence levels. In addition, we find that the optimal investment concentrates on the USD investment. Generally speaking, t Copula and Clayton Copula better portray the correlation structure of multiple assets than Normal Copula.

  11. Study of extraterrestrial disposal of radioactive wastes. Part 1: Space transportation and destination considerations for extraterrestrial disposal of radioactive wastes. [feasibility of using space shuttle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Ramler, J. R.; Stevenson, S. M.

    1974-01-01

    A feasibility study of extraterrestrial disposal of radioactive waste is reported. This report covers the initial work done on only one part of the NASA study, that evaluates and compares possible space destinations and space transportation systems. The currently planned space shuttle was found to be more cost effective than current expendable launch vehicles by about a factor of 2. The space shuttle requires a third stage to perform the waste disposal missions. Depending on the particular mission, this third stage could be either a reusable space tug or an expendable stage such as a Centaur.

  12. Prediction of selected Indian stock using a partitioning–interpolation based ARIMA–GARCH model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Narendra Babu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate long-term prediction of time series data (TSD is a very useful research challenge in diversified fields. As financial TSD are highly volatile, multi-step prediction of financial TSD is a major research problem in TSD mining. The two challenges encountered are, maintaining high prediction accuracy and preserving the data trend across the forecast horizon. The linear traditional models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH preserve data trend to some extent, at the cost of prediction accuracy. Non-linear models like ANN maintain prediction accuracy by sacrificing data trend. In this paper, a linear hybrid model, which maintains prediction accuracy while preserving data trend, is proposed. A quantitative reasoning analysis justifying the accuracy of proposed model is also presented. A moving-average (MA filter based pre-processing, partitioning and interpolation (PI technique are incorporated by the proposed model. Some existing models and the proposed model are applied on selected NSE India stock market data. Performance results show that for multi-step ahead prediction, the proposed model outperforms the others in terms of both prediction accuracy and preserving data trend.

  13. SETI: A good introductory physics topic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    1997-04-01

    If America is to achieve the science literacy that is essential to industrialized democracy, all students must study such topics as scientific methodology, pseudoscience, ozone depletion, and global warming. My large-enrollment liberal-arts physics course covers the great principles of physics along with several such philosophical and societal topics. It is easy to include the interdisciplinary context of physics in courses for non-scientists, because these courses are flexible, conceptual, and taught to students whose interests span a broad range. Students find these topics relevant and fascinating, leading to large enrollments by non-scientists even in courses labeled ''physics.'' I will discuss my approach to teaching the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI), a topic with lots of good physics and with connections to scientific methodology and pseudoscience. A textbook for this kind of course has been published, Physics: Concepts and Connections (Prentice-Hall, 1995).

  14. Life from the stars?. [extraterrestrial sources contributing to chemical evolution on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendleton, Yvonne J.; Cruikshank, Dale P.

    1994-01-01

    Scientists are now seriously considering the possibility that organic matter from interstellar space could have influenced, or even spurred, the origin of life on Earth. Various aspects of chemical evolution are discussed along with possible extraterrestrial sources responsible for contributing to Earth's life-producing, chemical composition. Specific topics covered include the following: interstellar matter, molecular clouds, asteroid dust, organic molecules in our solar system, interplanetary dust and comets, meteoritic composition, and organic-rich solar-system bodies.

  15. Value-at-risk estimations of energy commodities via long-memory, asymmetry and fat-tailed GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aloui, Chaker; Mabrouk, Samir

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfalls for some major crude oil and gas commodities for both short and long trading positions. Classical VaR estimations as well as RiskMetrics and other extensions to cases considering for long-range memory, asymmetry and fat-tail in energy markets volatility were conducted. We computed the VaR for three ARCH/GARCH-type models including FIGARCH, FIAPARCH and HYGARCH. These models were estimated in the presence of three alternative innovation's distributions: normal, Student and skewed Student. Our results show that considering for long-range memory, fat-tails and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one-day-ahead VaR for both short and long trading positions. Moreover, the FIAPARCH model outperforms the other models in the VaR's prediction. These results present several potential implications for energy markets risk quantifications and hedging strategies. (author)

  16. Extraterrestrial Organic Compounds in Meteorites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Oliver; Bada, Jeffrey L.; Meyer, Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Many organic compounds or their precursors found in meteorites originated in the interstellar or circumstellar medium and were later incorporated into planetesimals during the formation of the solar system. There they either survived intact or underwent further processing to synthesize secondary products on the meteorite parent body. The most distinct feature of CI and CM carbonaceous chondrites, two types of stony meteorites, is their high carbon content (up to 3% of weight), either in the form of carbonates or of organic compounds. The bulk of the organic carbon consists of an insoluble macromolecular material with a complex structure. Also present is a soluble organic fraction, which has been analyzed by several separation and analytical procedures. Low detection limits can be achieved by derivatization of the organic molecules with reagents that allow for analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy and high performance liquid chromatography. The CM meteorite Murchison has been found to contain more than 70 extraterrestrial amino acids and several other classes of compounds including carboxylic acids, hydroxy carboxylic acids, sulphonic and phosphonic acids, aliphatic, aromatic and polar hydrocarbons, fullerenes, heterocycles as well as carbonyl compounds, alcohols, amines and amides. The organic matter was found to be enriched in deuterium, and distinct organic compounds show isotopic enrichments of carbon and nitrogen relative to terrestrial matter.

  17. Extraterrestrial Life: Life on Mars - Then and Now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrhenius, Gustaf; Mojzsis, Stephen

    1996-01-01

    The recent claim to have identified possible signs of ancient life on Mars has been widely publicized and discussed. The authors conceded that none of the half-dozen pieces of evidence adduced in their paper individually provided strong support for extraterrestrial life, though they argued that the pieces added up to a case worth considering. Most - perhaps all - of the observed phenomena have counterparts in the inorganic world, so even the combination does not make a compelling case that there was ever life on Mars. Nevertheless, the importance of the problem has justified bringing the results to general attention. The paper has focussed interest on the origin and possible ubiquity of life, and on how we can design techniques capable of giving a more definitive answer to the question of whether there is, or has ever been, life elsewhere in the Universe.

  18. Project Cyclops: a Design Study of a System for Detecting Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    The requirements in hardware, manpower, time and funding to conduct a realistic effort aimed at detecting the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life are examined. The methods used are limited to present or near term future state-of-the-art techniques. Subjects discussed include: (1) possible methods of contact, (2) communication by electromagnetic waves, (3) antenna array and system facilities, (4) antenna elements, (5) signal processing, (6) search strategy, and (7) radio and radar astronomy.

  19. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  20. Extraterrestrial material analysis: loss of amino acids during liquid-phase acid hydrolysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buch, Arnaud; Brault, Amaury; Szopa, Cyril; Freissinet, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Searching for building blocks of life in extraterrestrial material is a way to learn more about how life could have appeared on Earth. With this aim, liquid-phase acid hydrolysis has been used, since at least 1970 , in order to extract amino acids and other organic molecules from extraterrestrial materials (e.g. meteorites, lunar fines) or Earth analogues (e.g. Atacama desert soil). This procedure involves drastic conditions such as heating samples in 6N HCl for 24 h, either under inert atmosphere/vacuum, or air. Analysis of the hydrolyzed part of the sample should give its total (free plus bound) amino acid content. The present work deals with the influence of the 6N HCl hydrolysis on amino acid degradation. Our experiments have been performed on a standard solution of 17 amino acids. After liquid-phase acid hydrolysis (6N HCl) under argon atmosphere (24 h at 100°C), the liquid phase was evaporated and the dry residue was derivatized with N-Methyl-N-(t-butyldimethylsilyl)trifluoroacetamide (MTBSTFA) and dimethylformamide (DMF), followed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis. After comparison with derivatized amino acids from the standard solution, a significant reduction of the chromatographic peak areas was observed for most of the amino acids after liquid-phase acid hydrolysis. Furthermore, the same loss pattern was observed when the amino acids were exposed to cold 6N HCl for a short amount of time. The least affected amino acid, i.e. glycine, was found to be 73,93% percent less abundant compared to the non-hydrolyzed standard, while the most affected, i.e. histidine, was not found in the chromatograms after hydrolysis. Our experiments thereby indicate that liquid-phase acid hydrolysis, even under inert atmosphere, leads to a partial or total loss of all of the 17 amino acids present in the standard solution, and that a quick cold contact with 6N HCl is sufficient to lead to a loss of amino acids. Therefore, in the literature, the reported increase

  1. Extraterrestrial amino acids in Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary sediments at Stevns Klint, Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Meixun; Bada, Jeffrey L.

    1989-06-01

    SINCE the discovery1 nearly a decade ago that Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary layers are greatly enriched in iridium, a rare element in the Earth's crust, there has been intense controversy on the relationship between this Ir anomaly and the massive extinction of organisms ranging from dinosaurs to marine plankton that characterizes the K/T boundary. Convincing evidence suggests that both the Ir spike and the extinction event were caused by the collision of a large bolide (>10 km in diameter) with the Earth1-11. Alternative explanations claim that extensive, violent volcanism12-14 can account for the Ir, and that other independent causes were responsible for the mass extinctions15,16. We surmise that the collision of a massive extraterrestrial object with the Earth may have produced a unique organic chemical signature because certain meteorites, and probably comets, contain organic compounds which are either rare or non-existent on the Earth17. In contrast, no organic compounds would be expected to be associated with volcanic processes. Here we find that K/T boundary sediments at Stevns Klint, Denmark, contain both α-amino-isobutyric acid [AIB, (CH3)2CNH2COOH] and racemic isovaline [ISOVAL, CH3CH2(CH3)CNH2COOH], two amino acids that are exceedingly rare on the Earth but which are major amino acids in carbonaceous chondrites17,18. An extraterrestrial source is the most reasonable explanation for the presence of these amino acids.

  2. Extraterrestrial Nucleobases in Carbonaceous Chondrites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Z.; Botta, O.; Fogel, M.; Sephton, M.; Glavin, D.; Watson, J.; Dworkin, J.; Schwartz, A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    . Our stable carbon isotope measurements clearly demonstrate that the nucleobases in the Murchison meteorite are indigenous to the meteorite, and clearly differ from the values determined for the terrestrial nucleobases measured in the soil collected at the impact site. These results support the hypothesis that nucleobases were exogenously delivered to the early Earth, and may have been important for the prebiotic chemistry on our young planet. With regard to the detection of traces of life on other planets such as Mars it is essential to characterize organic materials that have been exogenously delivered to the early planets. The analysis of the composition and isotopic fractionation of extraterrestrial material using complementary techniques can provide crucial insights into the formation of our Solar System, extraterrestrial delivery processes and subsequent addition and incorporation into the carbonaceous material available on the young planets. Ultimately, these parameters form an essential reference point for interpreting biosignatures that may be left in the ancient rock record on a planetary body. References: [1] Hayatsu R. et al. 1975. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 39: 471- 488. [2] Folsome C. E. et al. 1971. Nature 232: 108-109. [3] Stoks P. G. & Schwartz A. W. 1979. Nature 282: 709-710. [4] Stoks P.G. & Schwartz A. W. 1981. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 45: 563-569. [5] Shimoyama A. et al. 1990. Geochemical Journal 24: 343-348. [6] Martins Z. et al. 2004. Meteoritics & Planetary Science 39: A5145. 2

  3. A Review of Extra-Terrestrial Mining Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, R. P.; van Susante, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Outer space contains a vast amount of resources that offer virtually unlimited wealth to the humans that can access and use them for commercial purposes. One of the key technologies for harvesting these resources is robotic mining of regolith, minerals, ices and metals. The harsh environment and vast distances create challenges that are handled best by robotic machines working in collaboration with human explorers. Humans will benefit from the resources that will be mined by robots. They will visit outposts and mining camps as required for exploration, commerce and scientific research, but a continuous presence is most likely to be provided by robotic mining machines that are remotely controlled by humans. There have been a variety of extra-terrestrial robotic mining concepts proposed over the last 40 years and this paper will attempt to summarize and review concepts in the public domain (government, industry and academia) to serve as an informational resource for future mining robot developers and operators. The challenges associated with these concepts will be discussed and feasibility will be assessed. Future needs associated with commercial efforts will also be investigated.

  4. The need for operating guidelines and a decision making framework applicable to the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Race, Margaret S.; Randolph, Richard O.

    While formal principles have been adopted for the eventuality of detecting intelligent life in our galaxy (SETI Principles), no such guidelines exist for the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life within the solar system. Current scientifically based planetary protection policies for solar system exploration address how to undertake exploration, but do not provide clear guidance on what to do if and when life is detected. Considering that martian life could be detected under several different robotic and human exploration scenarios in the coming decades, it is appropriate to anticipate how detection of non-intelligent, microbial life could impact future exploration missions and activities, especially on Mars. This paper discusses a proposed set of interim guidelines based loosely on the SETI Principles and addresses issues extending from the time of discovery through future handling and treatment of extraterrestrial life on Mars or elsewhere. Based on an analysis of both scientific and ethical considerations, there is a clear need for developing operating protocols applicable at the time of discovery and a decision making framework that anticipates future missions and activities, both robotic and human. There is growing scientific confidence that the discovery of extraterrestrial life in some form is nearly inevitable. If and when life is discovered beyond Earth, non-scientific dimensions may strongly influence decisions about the nature and scope of future missions and activities. It is appropriate to encourage international discussion and consideration of the issues prior to an event of such historical significance.

  5. A new method of Debye-Scherrer pattern integration on two-dimensional detectors, demonstrated for the new structure powder diffractometer (SPODI) at the FRM-II in Garching

    CERN Document Server

    Elf, F; Artus, G R J; Roth, S

    2002-01-01

    The expected diffraction patterns of the new powder diffractometer SPODI, currently under construction at the FRM-II in Garching, will be smeared Debye-Scherrer rings as depicted by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. To overcome this disadvantage, a concept based on the combination of MC simulations and empirical approximation methods is developed to reverse the smearing by deconvolution and then summing up along the rings, including corrections for different arc lengths, resulting in conventional one-dimensional diffraction patterns suitable for Rietveld-refinement programs without further processing. (orig.)

  6. If the universe is teeming with aliens where is everybody? fifty solutions to the Fermi paradox and the problem of extraterrestrial life

    CERN Document Server

    Webb, Stephen

    2002-01-01

    Given the fact that there are perhaps 400 million stars in our Galaxy alone, and perhaps 400 million galaxies in the Universe, it stands to reason that somewhere out there, in the 14-billion-year-old cosmos, there is or once was a civilization at least as advanced as our own. The sheer enormities of the numbers almost demand that we accept the truth of this hypothesis. Why, then, have we encountered no evidence, no messages, no artifacts of these extraterrestrials? Webb discusses in detail the 50 most cogent and intriguing solutions to Fermi's famous paradox: If the numbers strongly point to the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, why have we found no evidence of them?

  7. Amino Acids from Icy Amines: A Radiation-Chemical Approach to Extraterrestrial Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dworkin, J. P.; Moore, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    Detections of amino acids in meteorites go back several decades, with at least 100 such compounds being reported for the Murchison meteorite alone. The presence of these extraterrestrial molecules raises questions as to their formation, abundance, thermal stability, racemization, and possible subsequent reactions. Although all of these topics have been studied in laboratories, such work often involves many variables and unknowns. This has led us to seek out model systems with which to uncover reaction products, test chemical predictions, and sited light on underlying reaction mechanisms. This presentation will describe one such study, focusing on amino-acid formation in ices.

  8. An Earth-Based Equivalent Low Stretch Apparatus to Assess Material Flammability for Microgravity & Extraterrestrial Fire-Safety Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, S. L.; Beeson, H.; Haas, J.

    2001-01-01

    One of the performance goals for NASA's enterprise of Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) is to develop methods, data bases, and validating tests for material flammability characterization, hazard reduction, and fire detection/suppression strategies for spacecraft and extraterrestrial habitats. This work addresses these needs by applying the fundamental knowledge gained from low stretch experiments to the development of a normal gravity low stretch material flammability test method. The concept of the apparatus being developed uses the low stretch geometry to simulate the conditions of the extraterrestrial environment through proper scaling of the sample dimensions to reduce the buoyant stretch in normal gravity. The apparatus uses controlled forced-air flow to augment the low stretch to levels which simulate Lunar or Martian gravity levels. In addition, the effect of imposed radiant heat flux on material flammability can be studied with the cone heater. After breadboard testing, the apparatus will be integrated into NASA's White Sands Test Facility's Atmosphere-Controlled Cone Calorimeter for evaluation as a new materials screening test method.

  9. The AMS experiment: first results and physics prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vialle, J.P.

    2000-04-01

    The main physics goal of the AMS experiment is the search for primordial antimatter, non-baryonic dark matter, and the measurement with high statistics and high accuracy of the electrically charged cosmic ray particles and light nuclei in the extraterrestrial space beyond the atmosphere. AMS is the first magnetic spectrometer which will be flown in space. It will be installed for 3 years on the international space station (ISS) in 2003. A precursor flight with the space shuttle DISCOVERY took place in June 1998. 100 millions particles were recorded during the test flight and unexpected physics results were observed on fluxes of protons, electrons, positrons, and helium nuclei. These results are described below, and the physics prospects for the second phase of the experiment on the space station as well. (author)

  10. Space nuclear power systems for extraterrestrial basing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lance, J.R.; Chi, J.W.H.

    1989-01-01

    Previous studies of nuclear and non-nuclear power systems for lunar bases are compared with recent studies by others. Power levels from tens of kW e for early base operation up to 2000 kW e for a self-sustaining base with a Closed Environment Life Support System (CELSS) are considered. Permanent lunar or Martian bases will require the use of multiple nuclear units connected to loads with a power transmission and distribution system analogous to earth-based electric utility systems. A methodology used for such systems is applied to the lunar base system to examine the effects of adding 100 kW e SP-100 class and/or larger nuclear units when a reliability criterion is imposed. The results show that resource and logistic burdens can be reduced by using 1000 kW e units early in the base growth scenario without compromising system reliability. Therefore, both technologies being developed in two current programs (SP-100 and NERVA Derivative Reactor (NDR) technology for space power) can be used effectively for extraterrestrial base power systems. Recent developments in NDR design that result in major reductions in reactor mass are also described. (author)

  11. Point spread function and centroiding accuracy measurements with the JET-X mirror and MOS CCD detector of the Swift gamma ray burst explorer's X-ray telescope

    CERN Document Server

    Ambrosi, R M; Hutchinson, I B; Willingale, R; Wells, A; Short, A D T; Campana, S; Citterio, O; Tagliaferri, G; Burkert, W; Bräuninger, H

    2002-01-01

    The optical components of the Swift X-ray telescope (XRT) are already developed items. They are the flight spare X-ray mirror from the JET-X/Spectrum-X program and an MOS CCD (CCD22) of the type currently operating in orbit as part of the EPIC focal plane camera on XMM-Newton (SPIE 4140 (2000) 64). The JET-X mirrors were first calibrated at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics' (MPE) Panter facility, Garching, Germany in 1996 (SPIE 2805 (1996) 56; SPIE 3114 (1997) 392). Half-energy widths of 16 arcsec at 1.5 keV were confirmed for the two flight mirrors and the flight spare. The calibration of the flight spare was repeated at Panter in July 2000 in order to establish whether any changes had occurred during the 4 yr that the mirror had been in storage at the OAB, Milan, Italy. The results reported in this paper confirm that the resolution of the JET-X mirrors has remained stable over this storage period. In an extension of this test program, the flight spare EPIC camera was installed at the fo...

  12. Modernization of instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants. Working materials. Proceedings of a specialists` meeting held in Garching, Germany, 4-7 July 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    The Specialists` Meeting on ``Modernization of Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants`` was organized by the IAEA (jointly by Division of Nuclear Power and Division of Nuclear Safety) in co-operation with Institute for Safety Technology (ISTec) and held in Garching, Germany from 4 to 7 July 1995 (The Meeting Chairman - Dr. W. Bastl). The meeting brought together experts on power plant operation with experts on application of today`s instrumentation and control technology. In this way, a match was made between those knowing the industry needs and requirements and those knowing the potentials of the technology. Refs, figs and tabs.

  13. Detection of Extraterrestrial Civilizations via the Spectral Signature of Advanced Interstellar Spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubrin, Robert

    1994-07-01

    This paper examines the possibility of detecting extraterrestrial civilizations by means of searching for the spectral signature of their interstellar transportation systems. The advantage of such an approach is that the characteristic power levels associated with interstellar transportation systems are many orders of magnitude greater than those required for communication, and so the signal strength may be much greater. Furthermore, unlike communication which is governed by a fairly arbitrary selection of technology and mutually agreed upon conventions, interstellar transportation systems are governed much more stringently by the laws of physics. For purposes of the present analysis we consider 4 methods of interstellar propulsion, the principles of which are fairly well understood. These are anti-matter rockets, fusion rockets, fission rockets, all of which can be used to either accelerate or decelerate a spacecraft, and magnetic sails, which can be used to decelerate a spacecraft by creating drag against the interstellar medium. The types of radiation emitted by each of these propulsion systems is described, and the signal strength for starships of a characteristic mass of 1 million tonnes traveling at speeds and acceleration levels characteristic of the various propulsion systems is estimated. It is shown that for the power level of ships considered, the high energy gamma radiation emitted by the anti-matter, fusion and fission propulsion systems would be undetectable at interstellar distances. Better opportunities for detection would be the bremsstrahlung radiation from the plasma confinement systems of fusion devices, which might be detectable at distances of about 1 light year, and visible light emitted from the radiators of anti-matter driven photon rocket, which might be detectable by the Hubble Space Telescope at a distance of several hundred light years provided the rocket nozzle is oriented towards the Earth. The most detectable form of starship

  14. New Extraterrestrial Signature of the Insoluble Organic Matter of the Orgueil, Murchison and Tagish Lake Meteorites as Revealed by Electron Paramagnetic Resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binet, L.; Gourier, D.; Derenne, S.; Robert, F.; Ciofini, I.

    2003-03-01

    EPR of the insoluble organic matter (IOM) of three chondrites revealed heterogeneously spread radicals including diradicaloids. These features not observed in terrestrial kerogens appear as an extraterrestrial signature of the chondritic IOM.

  15. A Review of Extra-Terrestrial Mining Robot Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Robert P.; Van Susante, Paul J.

    2011-01-01

    Outer space contains a vast amount of resources that offer virtually unlimited wealth to the humans that can access and use them for commercial purposes. One of the key technologies for harvesting these resources is robotic mining of regolith, minerals, ices and metals. The harsh environment and vast distances create challenges that are handled best by robotic machines working in collaboration with human explorers. Humans will benefit from the resources that will be mined by robots. They will visit outposts and mining camps as required for exploration, commerce and scientific research, but a continuous presence is most likely to be provided by robotic mining machines that are remotely controlled by humans. There have been a variety of extra-terrestrial robotic mining concepts proposed over the last 100 years and this paper will attempt to summarize and review concepts in the public domain (government, industry and academia) to serve as an informational resource for future mining robot developers and operators. The challenges associated with these concepts will be discussed and feasibility will be assessed. Future needs associated with commercial efforts will also be investigated.

  16. Comparison of the Raman spectra of ion irradiated soot and collected extraterrestrial carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunetto, R.; Pino, T.; Dartois, E.; Cao, A.-T.; d'Hendecourt, L.; Strazzulla, G.; Bréchignac, Ph.

    2009-03-01

    We use a low pressure flame to produce soot by-products as possible analogues of the carbonaceous dust present in diverse astrophysical environments, such as circumstellar shells, diffuse interstellar medium, planetary disks, as well as in our own Solar System. Several soot samples, displaying an initial chemical diversity from aromatic to aliphatic dominated material, are irradiated with 200-400 keV H +, He +, and Ar ++ ions, with fluences comprised between 10 14 and 10 16 ions/cm 2, to simulate expected radiation induced modification on extraterrestrial carbon. The evolution of the samples is monitored using Raman spectroscopy, before, during, and after irradiation. A detailed analysis of the first- and second-order Raman spectra is performed, using a fitting combination of Lorentzian and/or Gaussian-shaped bands. Upon irradiation, the samples evolve toward an amorphous carbon phase. The results suggest that the observed variations are more related to vacancy formation than ionization processes. A comparison with Raman spectra of extraterrestrial organic matter and other irradiation experiments of astrophysically relevant carbonaceous materials is presented. The results are consistent with previous experiments showing mostly amorphization of various carbonaceous materials. Irradiated soots have Raman spectra similar to those of some meteorites, IDPs, and Comet Wild 2 grains collected by the Stardust mission. Since the early-Sun expected irradiation fluxes sufficient for amorphization are compatible with accretion timescales, our results support the idea that insoluble organic matter (IOM) observed in primitive meteorites has experienced irradiation-induced amorphization prior to the accretion of the parent bodies, emphasizing the important role played by early solar nebula processing.

  17. The search for extraterrestrial life: Recent developments; Proceedings of the Symposium, Boston University, MA, June 18-21, 1984

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagiannis, M. D.

    The conference presents papers on the history of the search for extraterrestrial life, the scientific rationale and methods used in the search for other planetary systems, the detection of distant planets with the Space Telescope, planetary searches using optical astrometric interferometers, and infrared spectral identification of complex organic molecules in interstellar grains. Also considered are universal protein ancestors from hydrogen cyanide and water, astronomical sources of polarized light and their role in determining molecular chirality on earth, the universal diagrams and life in the universe, the precambrian evolution of terrestrial life and a thermodynamic approach to the occurrance and appearance of galactic life forms. Papers are also presented on the Ohio Seti program, lunar reflections of terrestrial radio leakage, the multichannel spectrum analyzer, software implementation of detection algorithms for the MCSA, the Serendip II design, galactic colonization and competition in a young galactic disk, implications of ancient and future migrations, extraterrestrial intelligence, the inevitability and the possible structures of supercivilizations, planetary, interplanetary and interstellar organic matter, and universal aspects of biological evolution.

  18. Flash pyrolysis of adsorbed aromatic organic acids on carbonate minerals: Assessing the impact of mineralogy for the identification of organic compounds in extraterrestrial bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, R.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between minerals and organics is an essential factor in comprehending the origin of life on extraterrestrial bodies. So far organic molecules have been detected on meteorites, comets, interstellar medium and interplanetary dust particles. While on Mars, organic molecules may also be present as indicated by the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument suite on the Curiosity Rover in Martian sediments. Minerals including hydrated phyllosilicate, carbonate, and sulfate minerals have been confirmed in carbonaceous chondrites. The presence of phyllosilicate minerals on Mars has been indicated by in situ elemental analysis by the Viking Landers, remote sensing infrared observations and the presence of smectites in meteorites. Likewise, the presence of carbonate minerals on the surface of Mars has been indicated by both Phoenix Lander and Spirit Rover. Considering the fact that both mineral and organic matter are present on the surface of extraterrestrial bodies including Mars, a comprehensive work is required to understand the interaction of minerals with specific organic compounds. The adsorption of the organic molecule at water/mineral surface is a key process of concentrating organic molecules on the surface of minerals. Carboxylic acids are abundantly observed in extraterrestrial material such as meteorites and interstellar space. It is highly suspected that carboxylic acids are also present on Mars due to the average organic carbon infall rate of 108 kg/yr. Further aromatic organic acids have also been observed in carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. This work presents the adsorption of an aromatic carboxylic acid at the water/calcite interface and characterization of the products formed after adsorption via on-line pyrolysis. Adsorption and online pyrolysis results are used to gain insight into adsorbed aromatic organic acid-calcite interaction. Adsorption and online pyrolysis results are related to the interpretation of organic compounds identified

  19. Searching for Extraterrestrial Intelligence SETI Past, Present, and Future

    CERN Document Server

    Shuch, H Paul

    2011-01-01

    This book is a collection of essays written by the very scientists and engineers who have led, and continue to lead, the scientific quest known as SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Divided into three parts, the first section, ‘The Spirit of SETI Past’, written by the surviving pioneers of this then emerging discipline, reviews the major projects undertaken during the first 50 years of SETI science and the results of that research. In the second section, ‘The Spirit of SETI Present’, the present-day science and technology is discussed in detail, providing the technical background to contemporary SETI instruments, experiments, and analytical techniques, including the processing of the received signals to extract potential alien communications. In the third and final section, ‘The Spirit of SETI Future’, the book looks ahead to the possible directions that SETI will take in the next 50 years, addressing such important topics as interstellar message construction, the risks and assump...

  20. The Ĝ Infrared Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. I. Background and Justification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, J. T.; Mullan, B.; Sigurdsson, S.; Povich, M. S.

    2014-09-01

    We motivate the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. We discuss some philosophical difficulties of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), and how communication SETI circumvents them. We review "Dysonian SETI," the search for artifacts of alien civilizations, and find that it is highly complementary to traditional communication SETI; the two together might succeed where either one alone has not. We discuss the argument of Hart that spacefaring life in the Milky Way should be either galaxy-spanning or non-existent, and examine a portion of his argument that we call the "monocultural fallacy." We discuss some rebuttals to Hart that invoke sustainability and predict long Galaxy colonization timescales. We find that the maximum Galaxy colonization timescale is actually much shorter than previous work has found (energy supplies and argue that detectably large energy supplies can plausibly be expected to exist because life has the potential for exponential growth until checked by resources or other limitations, and intelligence implies the ability to overcome such limitations. As such, if Hart's thesis is correct, then searches for large alien civilizations in other galaxies may be fruitful; if it is incorrect, then searches for civilizations within the Milky Way are more likely to succeed than Hart argued. We review some past Dysonian SETI efforts and discuss the promise of new mid-infrared surveys, such as that of WISE.

  1. International fusion research council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belozerov, A.N.

    1977-01-01

    A brief history of the International Fusion Research Council (IFRC) is given and the minutes of the 1976 meeting in Garching are summarized. At the Garching meeting, the IFRC evaluated the quality of papers presented at recent IAEA conferences on plasma physics and controlled thermonuclear research, and made recommendations on the organization and timing of future meetings on nuclear fusion

  2. PHILOSOPHICAL-ANTROPOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF A PROBLEM OF SEARCH EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL OF CIVILIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Tshedrin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The fears express, that «METI-projects», which testify to existence of mankind as technicalgeneous of a civilization for highly advanced ETC of a Galaxy, can have the extremely negative consequences, and «SETI-projects» and received radiosignals can become the information weapon aggressive ETC. The analysis of these fears as complete sociocultural of a phenomenon, them philosophical-anthropological of measurement, sociocultural of the basis, the forms of their display are the purpose of clause. Methodology. Author used the social-communicative approach, methods of system and cluster analyses. Scientific innovation. Are opened philosophical-anthropological of measurement of a problem of life extra-terrestrial intelligents (ETI, the factors of statement of a problem of contacts with ETC in the modern form connected with spacing of scientific and technical activity of mankind, influence of processes globalization on philosophical-anthropological aspects of a problem ETC, connected with changes in the fundamental relation «the Man - World» are investigated. These processes conduct to growth of fears concerning unpredictable intervention in terrestrial sociocultural system of alien reason. The persuasive fears, connected with possible consequences of contacts with ETC, take the form of hypotheses rather extra-terrestrial of artificial intelligence (ETAI as potential subject of space contact. The positive and negative scripts of dialogue with ETAI, problem «of high quality of a signal» and «SETI-hacker», connected with ETAI as by the subject of space dialogue are considered. Conclusions. The further development of a problem of search ETC and establishment of contacts with it will be connected, on the one hand to success in overcoming civilization of impasse, in which there was a mankind on a boundary ХХ – ХХI of centuries, and with another - deepening of revolution in cosmology, progress of observant astronomy, philosophical

  3. Compound specific stable isotopes as probes for distinguishing the sources of biomolecules in terrestrial and extraterrestrial materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, M. H.; Macko, S. A.

    2003-04-01

    Life on Earth consists of orderly arrangements of several key types of organic compounds (amino acids, sugars, fatty acids, nucleic bases) that are the building blocks of proteins, carbohydrates, lipids and nucleotides. Subsequent to death, macromolecules are commonly broken down to their molecular constituents or other similar scale components. Thus, in ancient terrestrial and extraterrestrial materials, it is far more likely to expect the presence of simple compounds such as amino acids rather than the proteins from which they were possibly derived. Given that amino acids, for example, are common components of all extinct and extant organisms, the challenge has been to develop methods for distinguishing their sources. Stable isotopes are powerful probes for determining the origins of organic matter. Amino acid constituents of all organisms on Earth exhibit characteristic stable isotope compositions owing to fractionations associated with their biosynthesis. These fractionations are distinct from those observed for amino acids formed by abiotic processes. Thus it should be possible to use isotopes as probes for determining whether amino acids in ancient rocks on Earth are biotic or abiotic, based on their relative isotopic compositions. Also, owing to differences in the isotope compositions of precursors, amino acids in extraterrestrial materials such as carbonaceous meteorites are moderately to substantially enriched in the heavy isotopes of C, N and H relative to terrestrial amino acids. Assuming that the isotope compositions of the gaseous components of, for example, the Martian atmosphere were distinct from Earth at such time when organic molecules may have formed, it should be possible to distinguish these components from terrestrial contaminants by determining their isotope compositions and/or those of their respective enantiomers. Also, if life as we know it existed on another planet such as Mars, fractionations characteristic of biosynthesis should be

  4. Nuclear physics analyses in lunar and planetary investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Surkov, Yu.A.

    1984-01-01

    The advances of space technology ushered in a new era in the development of man's ideas about the solar system. The flights of space vehicles to moon, Venus, Mars and other planets made it possible to obtain quite new information on the composition, structure and properties of matter in the solar system. In these studies a prominent role is played by remote and contact nuclear physics methods of analyzing extraterrestrial matter - gamma spectrometry, X-ray spectrometry, alpha spectrometry and neutron spectrometry. At present practically any space vehicle bound for planets carries scientific instrumentation based on nuclear physics methods of analysis. The use of gamma and X-ray spectroscopy for obtaining information about composition, structure and properties of the matter of the moon and planets is reviewed. (author)

  5. From the Physical World to the Biological Universe: Historical Developments Underlying SETI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Steven J.

    More than thirty years ago the French historian of science Alexandre Koyré (1957) wrote his classic volume, From the Closed World to the Infinite Universe, in which he argued that a fundamental shift in world view had taken place in 17th century cosmology. Between Nicholas of Cusa in the fifteenth century and Newton and Leibniz in the seventeenth, he found that the very terms in which humans thought about their universe had changed. These changes he characterized broadly as the destruction of the closed finite cosmos and the geometrization of space. The occasion of the Third International Bioastronomy Symposium in France is an especially appropriate time to argue that the SETI endeavor represents a test for a similar fundamental shift in cosmological world view, from the physical world to the biological universe. I define the biological universe, equivalent to what I have called before the biophysical cosmology (Dick, 1989), as the scientific world view which holds that life is widespread throughout the universe. In this case the biological universe does not necessarily supersede the physical universe, but a universe filled with life would certainly fundamentally alter our attitude toward the universe, and our place in it. Although Koyré mentioned life beyond the Earth as an adjunct to the revolution from the closed world to the infinite universe, only in the 1980s has the history of science begun to give full treatment to the subject. What follows is meant to be a contribution to that ongoing endeavor to understand where the extraterrestrial life debate fits in the history of science. The modern era in the extraterrestrial life debate is normally dated from Cocconi and Morrison's paper in 1959, and though one can always find precursors, this in my view is a valid perception. Cocconi and Morrison gave definite form to SETI, Frank Drake independently first carried out the experiment, a network of interested scientists began to form and met in Green Bank in

  6. The Implications of the Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life for Religion and Theology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Ted

    2012-05-01

    This paper asks about the future of religion: (1) Will confirmation of ETI cause terrestrial religion to collapse? "No" is the answer based upon a summary of the "Peters ETI Religious Crisis Survey." Then three questions are posed to the astrotheologian: (2) What is the scope of God's creation? (3) What can we expect when we encounter ETI? (4) Will contact with more advanced ETI diminish human dignity? The paper's thesis is that contact with extraterrestrial intelligence will expand the existing Christian vision that all of creation — including the 13.7 billion year history of the universe replete with all of God's creatures — is the gift of a loving and gracious God.

  7. Preliminary limits on the flux of muon neutrinos from extraterrestrial point sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bionta, R.M.; Blewitt, G.; Bratton, C.B.

    1985-01-01

    We present the arrival directions of 117 upward-going muon events collected with the IMB proton lifetime detector during 317 days of live detector operation. The rate of upward-going muons observed in our detector was found to be consistent with the rate expected from atmospheric neutrino production. The upper limit on the total flux of extraterrestrial neutrinos >1 GeV is 2 -sec. Using our data and a Monte Carlo simulation of high energy muon production in the earth surrounding the detector, we place limits on the flux of neutrinos from a point source in the Vela X-2 system of 2 -sec with E > 1 GeV. 6 refs., 5 figs

  8. Distribución condicional de los retornos de la tasa de cambio colombiana: un ejercicio empírico a partir de modelos GARCH univariados.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Gallón Gómez

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Un conjunto de modelos GARCH multivariados son estimados y su validez empírica comparada a partir del cálculo de la medida VaR, para los retornos diarios de la tasa de cambio nominal del peso colombiano con respecto al dólar americano, euro, libra esterlina y yen japonés en el periodo 1999–2005. La comparación de las estimaciones para la matriz de covarianza condicional y los resultados obtenidos para la proporción de fallo y el contraste de cuantil dinámico de Engle y Manganelli (2004 presentan evidencia a favor del modelo de correlación condicional constante.

  9. Christianity's Response to the Discovery of Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life: Insights from Science and Religion and the Sociology of Religion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertka, Constance M.

    The question of whether or not extraterrestrial life exists and its potential impact for religions, especially Christianity, is an ancient one addressed in numerous historical publications. The contemporary discussion has been dominated by a few notable scientists from the SETI and astrobiology communities, and by a few Christian theologians active in the science and religion field. This discussion amounts to scientists outside of the faith tradition predicting the demise of Christianity if extraterrestrial intelligent life is discovered and theologians within the tradition predicting the enrichment and reformulation of Christian doctrine. Missing from this discussion is insight drawn more broadly from the science and religion field and from the sociology of religion. A consideration of how possibilities for relating science and religion are reflected in the US public's varied acceptance of the theory of evolution; the growth of Christianity in the Global South; and a revised theory of secularization which inversely correlates religiosity to existential security, gives credence to the proposal that the response from those outside of academia would be much more varied and uncertain.

  10. If the Universe is teeming with aliens... where is everybody? seventy-five solutions to the Fermi paradox and the problem of extraterrestrial life

    CERN Document Server

    Webb, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Given the fact that there are perhaps 400 billion stars in our Galaxy alone, and perhaps 400 billion galaxies in the Universe, it stands to reason that somewhere out there, in the 14-billion-year-old cosmos, there is or once was a civilization at least as advanced as our own. The sheer enormity of the numbers almost demands that we accept the truth of this hypothesis. Why, then, have we encountered no evidence, no messages, no artifacts of these extraterrestrials? In this second, significantly revised and expanded edition of his widely popular book, Webb discusses in detail the (for now!) 75 most cogent and intriguing solutions to Fermi's famous paradox: If the numbers strongly point to the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, why have we found no evidence of them?

  11. The Ĝ Infrared Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jason Thomas; Povich, Matthew; Griffith, Roger; Maldonado, Jessica; Sigurdsson, Steinn; Star Cartier, Kimberly

    2015-08-01

    The WISE and Spitzer large-area surveys of the mid-infrared sky bring a new opportunity to search for evidence of the energy supplies of very large extraterrestrial civilizations. If these energy supplies rival the output of a civilization's parent star (Kardashev Type II), or if a galaxy-spanning supercivilization's use rivals that of the total galactic luminosity (Type III), they would be detectable as anomolously mid-infrared-bright stars and galaxies, respectively. We have already performed the first search for this emission from Type III civilizations using the WISE all-sky survey, and put the first upper limits on them in the local universe, and discuss ways to improve on these limits. We also discuss some detectable forms of and limits on Type II civilizations in the Mliky Way.

  12. Investigations in space-related molecular biology. [cryo-electron microscopic and diffraction studies on terrestrial and extraterrestrial specimens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Moran, H.; Pritzker, A. N.

    1974-01-01

    Improved instrumentation and preparation techniques for high resolution, high voltage cryo-electron microscopic and diffraction studies on terrestrial and extraterrestrial specimens are reported. Computer correlated ultrastructural and biochemical work on hydrated and dried cell membranes and related biological systems provided information on membrane organization, ice crystal formation and ordered water, RNA virus linked to cancer, lunar rock samples, and organometallic superconducting compounds. Apollo 11, 12, 14, and 15 specimens were analyzed

  13. Discovery of ETI: Terrestrial and extraterrestrial legal implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasan, Ernst

    TheLegalSituationonEarth: The following international legal regulations seem to apply to the search for and the eventual detection of ETI: a) The "Space Treaty" of Oct. 10, 1967; b) The Liability Convention of Oct. 9, 1973; c) The Moon Agreement of Dec. 5, 1979; d) The International Telecommunication Convention. LegalRelationswithExtraterrestrials: We may expect the following characteristics of ETI: 1. life in the sense of influencing the environment by selection from more than one possibility; 2. intelligence in the sense of self-realization of free will; 3. existence in three dimensional space and a will to live. With this we can expect that each race in the universe may have the following interests regarding its own race: a) to preserve and continue its own life; b) to protect this life from damage and intrusion; c) possibly to expand the realms of its living space. Therefore, if we decide to "answer" ETI, we may want to transmit such legal-philosophical principles: 1. the principle of nonviolation; 2. the principle of equality; 3. the principle to recognize the will to live and the living space of any intelligent race.

  14. Extra-terrestrial construction processes - Advancements, opportunities and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Sungwoo; Prabhu, Vibha Levin; Anand, Mahesh; Taylor, Lawrence A.

    2017-10-01

    Government space agencies, including NASA and ESA, are conducting preliminary studies on building alternative space-habitat systems for deep-space exploration. Such studies include development of advanced technologies for planetary surface exploration, including an in-depth understanding of the use of local resources. Currently, NASA plans to land humans on Mars in the 2030s. Similarly, other space agencies from Europe (ESA), Canada (CSA), Russia (Roscosmos), India (ISRO), Japan (JAXA) and China (CNSA) have already initiated or announced their plans for launching a series of lunar missions over the next decade, ranging from orbiters, landers and rovers for extended stays on the lunar surface. As the Space Odyssey is one of humanity's oldest dreams, there has been a series of research works for establishing temporary or permanent settlement on other planetary bodies, including the Moon and Mars. This paper reviews current projects developing extra-terrestrial construction, broadly categorised as: (i) ISRU-based construction materials; (ii) fabrication methods; and (iii) construction processes. It also discusses four categories of challenges to developing an appropriate construction process: (i) lunar simulants; (ii) material fabrication and curing; (iii) microwave-sintering based fabrication; and (iv) fully autonomous and scaled-up construction processes.

  15. Widening Perspectives: The Intellectual and Social Benefits of Astrobiology (Regardless of Whether Extraterrestrial Life is Discovered or Not)

    OpenAIRE

    Crawford, Ian A.

    2017-01-01

    Astrobiology is usually defined as the study of the origin, evolution, distribution, and future of life in the universe. As such it is inherently interdisciplinary and cannot help but engender a worldview infused by cosmic and evolutionary perspectives. Both these attributes of the study of astrobiology are, and will increasingly prove to be, beneficial to society regardless of whether extraterrestrial life is discovered or not.

  16. Widening perspectives: the intellectual and social benefits of astrobiology (regardless of whether extraterrestrial life is discovered or not)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, I. A.

    2018-01-01

    Astrobiology is usually defined as the study of the origin, evolution, distribution and future of life in the Universe. As such it is inherently interdisciplinary and cannot help but engender a worldview infused by cosmic and evolutionary perspectives. Both these attributes of the study of astrobiology are, and will increasingly prove to be, beneficial to society regardless of whether extraterrestrial life is discovered or not.

  17. The quest for extraterrestrial life: what about the viruses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Dale Warren

    2013-01-01

    Recently, viruses have been recognized as the most numerous entities and the primary drivers of evolution on Earth. Historically, viruses have been mostly ignored in the field of astrobiology due to the view that they are not alive in the classical sense and if encountered would not present risk due to their host-specific nature. What we currently know of viruses is that we are most likely to encounter them on other life-bearing planets; that while some are exquisitely host-specific, many viruses can utilize hundreds of different host species; that viruses are known to exist in our planet's most extreme environments; and that while many do not survive long outside their hosts, some can survive for extended periods, especially in the cold. In our quest for extraterrestrial life, we should be looking for viruses; and while any encountered may pose no risk, the possibility of an encounter with a virus capable of accessing multiple cell types exists, and any prospective contact with such an organism should be treated accordingly.

  18. Sediment of a Central European Mountain Lake Implies an Extraterrestrial Impact at the Younger Dryas Onset

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vondrák, D.; Kletetschka, G.; Hrubá, J.; Nábělek, L.; Procházka, V.; Svitavská-Svobodová, Helena; Bobek, Přemysl; Hořická, Zuzana; Kadlec, Jaroslav; Takáč, M.; Stuchlík, Evžen

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 52, S1 (2017), A373-A373, č. článku 6230. ISSN 1086-9379. [Annual Meeting of the Meteoritical Society /80./. 23.07.2017-28.07.2017, Santa Fe] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-05935S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 ; RVO:67985530 Keywords : Younger Dryas * Extraterrestrial Impact * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology; DA - Hydrology ; Limnology (BC-A); DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography (GFU-E) OBOR OECD: Plant sciences, botany

  19. Measuring the effect of an astrobiology course on student optimism regarding extraterrestrial life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, David L.

    2017-07-01

    Students in an introductory undergraduate Astrobiology course were given a pre/post-test based on the Drake Equation in an attempt to measure changes in their perceptions regarding the prevalence of life in the Galaxy after taking the course. The results indicated that, after taking the course, the students were considerably more optimistic, by a 2 to 1 margin or more, about the prospect of habitable planets, the origin of life, and the evolution of intelligence in other planetary systems. The results suggest that, while it may not be the explicit goal of an astrobiology course to change student beliefs about the abundance or rarity of extraterrestrial life, such changes in opinion can and do occur.

  20. Extraterrestrial Amino Acids Identified in Metal-Rich CH and CB Carbonaceous Chondrites from Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Aaron S.; Elsila, Jamie E.; Hein, Jason E.; Glavin, Daniel P.; Dworkin, Jason P.

    2013-01-01

    Carbonaceous chondrites contain numerous indigenous organic compounds and could have been an important source of prebiotic compounds required for the origin of life on Earth or elsewhere. Extraterrestrial amino acids have been reported in five of the eight groups of carbonaceous chondrites and are most abundant in CI, CM, and CR chondritesbut are also present in the more thermally altered CV and CO chondrites. We report the abundance, distribution, and enantiomeric and isotopic compositions of simple primary amino acids in six metal-rich CH and CB carbonaceous chondrites that have not previously been investigated for amino acids: Allan Hills (ALH) 85085 (CH3), Pecora Escarpment(PCA) 91467 (CH3), Patuxent Range (PAT) 91546 (CH3), MacAlpine Hills (MAC) 02675(CBb), Miller Range (MIL) 05082 (CB), and Miller Range (MIL) 07411 (CB). Amino acid abundances and carbon isotopic values were obtained by using both liquid chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry and fluorescence, and gas chromatography isotope ratiomass spectrometry. The (delta D, delta C-13, delta N-15) ratios of multiple amino acids fall outside of the terrestrial range and support their extraterrestrial origin. Extracts of CH chondrites were found to be particularly rich in amino acids (1316 parts per million, ppm) while CB chondrite extracts had much lower abundances (0.22 ppm). The amino acid distributions of the CH and CB chondrites were distinct from the distributions observed in type 2 and 3 CM and CR chondrites and contained elevated levels of beta-, gamma-, and delta-amino acids compared to the corresponding alpha-amino acids, providing evidence that multiple amino acid formation mechanisms were important in CH and CB chondrites.

  1. Metas de inflação e volatilidade cambial: uma análise da experiência internacional com PAINEL-GARCH Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility: an analysis of international experience with PANEL-GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Rocha

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A adoção de regimes de metas inflacionárias tem como corolário o funcionamento de um regime de câmbio flutuante. Esta conexão leva alguns analistas a concluírem que um dos custos da implantação de metas de inflação é o aumento da volatilidade do câmbio. Este trabalho segue a sugestão de Edwards (2006 de que a avaliação da volatilidade cambial dentro do regime de metas deve ser feita controlando-se os efeitos do regime cambial vigente. A análise, portanto, dever ser da volatilidade condicional. Este artigo analisa a volatilidade condicional estimando um modelo de PAINEL-GARCH exponencial para 20 países que oficialmente adotaram o regime de metas. Os diferentes regimes cambiais são contemplados na explicação da volatilidade como variáveis de controle, seguindo a classificação acurada de regimes cambiais proposta por Reinhart e Rogoff (2002. Assim, os resultados contrariam muitas ideias cristalizadas por parte da literatura. No caso dos países emergentes, diferentemente do resultado para países desenvolvidos, foi encontrado que a adoção do regime de metas de inflação, Ceteris paribus, reduz a volatilidade condicional da taxa de câmbio real. Apesar de aparentemente desconcertante a princípio, o resultado segue uma lógica que é desenvolvida no artigo e que, em última instância, sugere problemas de credibilidade para o comportamento singular da volatilidade para esses países. Dentro desse contexto, é destacada a conexão entre estabilidade, fear of floating e especificidades dos países emergentes, como a dimensão do pass-trough cambial sobre os preços.The inflation targeting regimes adoption has as its corollary the operation of an exchange rate floating regime. This link makes some analysts to conclude that one of the costs of the inflation targeting implementation is the increase in the exchange rate volatility. This work follows the suggestion of Edwards (2006 that the evaluation of the exchange volatility

  2. Forecasting of exported volume for brazilian fruits by time series analysis: an arima/garch approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdinardo Moreira Barreto de Oliveira

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to offer econometric forecasting models to the Brazilian exported volume fruits, with a view to assisting the planning and production control, also motivated by the existence of a few published papers dealing with this issue. In this sense, it was used the ARIMA/GARCH models, considering, likewise, the occurrence of a multiplicative stochastic seasonality in these series. They were collected 300 observations of exported net weight (kg between Jan/1989 and Dec/2013 of the following fruits: pineapple, banana, orange, lemon, apple, papaya, mango, watermelon, melon and grape, which selection criteria was its importance in the exported basket fruit, because they represented 97% of total received dollars, and 99% of total volume sold in 2010, of a population about 28 kinds of exported fruits. The results showed that it was not only observed the existence of a 12 month multiplicative seasonality in banana and mango. On the other hand, they were identified two fruits groups: (1 those which are continuously exported, and (2 those which have export peaks. On the quality of the models, they were considered satisfactory for six of the ten fruits analyzed. On the volatility, it was seen a high persistence in banana and papaya series, pointing to the existence of a structural break in time series, which could be linked to the economic crises happened in the last 17 years.

  3. Transmission lines and launching systems for ECRH on the garching stellarators W VIIa and W VII-AS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thumm, M.; Janzen, G.; Mueller, G.; Schueller, P.G.; Wilhelm, R.; Erckmann, V.

    1983-01-01

    The transmission lines and launching systems for non ohmic plasma production and heating by ECR-waves at 28 GHz (200 kW, 40 ms) and 70 GHz (200 kW, 100 ms) in the Garching Wendelstein Stellarator W VIIa and at 70 GHz (800 kW, cw) in the future Advanced Stellarator W VII-AS are described. The ECRH systems meet the requirements for neutral gas breakdown (R-wave), heating of a cold plasma (X-mode) and heating of a warm plasma (0-mode) in a combined way. Periodically modulated wall mode converters (sinusoidal m=0 radius modulation, a 0 =31.75 mm at 28 GHz, a 0 =13.9 mm at 70 GHz) convert the circular electric TE/sub on/ gyrotron output mode mixture (mainly TE 02 mode) into a pure TE 01 wave which is used for the long distance transmission in smooth overmoded waveguides (I.D. = 63.5 mm). At the converter inputs the phases between the TE/sub on/ modes are matched by phase shifters. The measured conversion efficiency for characteristic mode mixtures (TE 02 /TE 01 /TE 03 ) at 28 GHz is about 98 %. For the geometrical and electrical matching of different waveguide diameters waveguide tapers with approximate Tschebycheff mode-conversion responses are used

  4. Enantiomeric excesses induced in amino acids by ultraviolet circularly polarized light irradiation of extraterrestrial ice analogs: A possible source of asymmetry for prebiotic chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modica, Paola; De Marcellus, Pierre; D'Hendecourt, Louis Le Sergeant; Meinert, Cornelia; Meierhenrich, Uwe J.; Nahon, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    The discovery of meteoritic amino acids with enantiomeric excesses of the L-form (ee L ) has suggested that extraterrestrial organic materials may have contributed to prebiotic chemistry and directed the initial occurrence of the ee L that further led to homochirality of amino acids on Earth. A proposed mechanism for the origin of ee L in meteorites involves an asymmetric photochemistry of extraterrestrial ices by UV circularly polarized light (CPL). We have performed the asymmetric synthesis of amino acids on achiral extraterrestrial ice analogs by VUV CPL, investigating the chiral asymmetry transfer at two different evolutionary stages at which the analogs were irradiated (regular ices and/or organic residues) and at two different photon energies (6.6 and 10.2 eV). We identify 16 distinct amino acids and precisely measure the L-enantiomeric excesses using the enantioselective GC × GC-TOFMS technique in five of them: α-alanine, 2,3-diaminopropionic acid, 2-aminobutyric acid, valine, and norvaline, with values ranging from ee L = –0.20% ± 0.14% to ee L = –2.54% ± 0.28%. The sign of the induced ee L depends on the helicity and the energy of CPL, but not on the evolutionary stage of the samples, and is the same for all five considered amino acids. Our results support an astrophysical scenario in which the solar system was formed in a high-mass star-forming region where icy grains were irradiated during the protoplanetary phase by an external source of CPL of a given helicity and a dominant energy, inducing a stereo-specific photochemistry.

  5. Space transportation and destination considerations for extraterrestrial disposal of radioactive waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, A. V.; Thompson, R. L.; Lubick, R. J.

    1973-01-01

    A feasibility study is summarized of extraterrestrial (space) disposal of radioactive waste. The initial work on the evaluation and comparison of possible space destinations and launch vehicles is reported. Only current or planned space transportation systems were considered. The currently planned space shuttle was found to be more cost effective than current expendable launch vehicles, by about a factor of two. The space shuttle will require a third stage to perform the disposal missions. Depending on the particular mission this could be either a reusable space tug or an expendable stage such as a Centaur. Of the destinations considered, high earth orbits (between geostationary and lunar orbit altitudes), solar orbits (such as a 0.90 AU circular solar orbit) or a direct injection to solar system escape appear to be the best candidates. Both earth orbits and solar orbits have uncertainties regarding orbit stability and waste package integrity for times on the order of a million years.

  6. The Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. I. Background and justification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, J. T.; Mullan, B.; Sigurdsson, S.; Povich, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    We motivate the Ĝ infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. We discuss some philosophical difficulties of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), and how communication SETI circumvents them. We review 'Dysonian SETI', the search for artifacts of alien civilizations, and find that it is highly complementary to traditional communication SETI; the two together might succeed where either one alone has not. We discuss the argument of Hart that spacefaring life in the Milky Way should be either galaxy-spanning or non-existent, and examine a portion of his argument that we call the 'monocultural fallacy'. We discuss some rebuttals to Hart that invoke sustainability and predict long Galaxy colonization timescales. We find that the maximum Galaxy colonization timescale is actually much shorter than previous work has found (<10 9 yr), and that many 'sustainability' counter-arguments to Hart's thesis suffer from the monocultural fallacy. We extend Hart's argument to alien energy supplies and argue that detectably large energy supplies can plausibly be expected to exist because life has the potential for exponential growth until checked by resources or other limitations, and intelligence implies the ability to overcome such limitations. As such, if Hart's thesis is correct, then searches for large alien civilizations in other galaxies may be fruitful; if it is incorrect, then searches for civilizations within the Milky Way are more likely to succeed than Hart argued. We review some past Dysonian SETI efforts and discuss the promise of new mid-infrared surveys, such as that of WISE.

  7. Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

  8. Measurement of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiizumi, K.; Arnold, J.R.

    1981-01-01

    Meteorites are rocks and pieces of iron-nickel alloy which fall to earth from time to time. They were formed about 4.6 billion years ago when our solar system was started. Thus it has been said that meteorites are the Rosetta stones of our solar system. We use the long-lived radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray bombardment, to study the history of the meteorites and also the history of the cosmic rays. When we have these historical facts in our hads, we hope we will be able to understand better how the solar system works, and how it got started. We can also learn more about the nature and origin of the cosmic rays. The accelerator mass spectrometry method helps not only reduce sample size, in most cases by two or three orders of magnitude, but opens another set of cosmogenic nuclides which have not been measured yet. Already 10 Be (t/sub 1/2 = 1.6 x 10 6 y), 36 Cl (3.0 x 10 5 y) and 129 I (1.6 x 10 7 y) in meteorites have been measured by accelerator mass spectrometry [3, 4, 7, 10]. Possible new candidates for measurement in extraterrestrial materials are 26 Al (7.2 x 10 5 y), 41 Ca (1.3 x 10 5 y), 60 Fe (approx. 10 5 y) and 59 Ni (7.6 x 10 4 y). We hope also to measure 146 Sm (1.0 x 10 8 y) and 92 Nb

  9. International law implications of the detection of extraterrestrial intelligent signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopal, Vladimir

    This paper first considers whether the present law of outer space, as it has been enshrined in five United Nations treaties and other legal documents concerning outer space, provides a satisfactory basis for SETI/CETI activities. In the author's opinion, these activities may serve "the common interest of all mankind in the progress of the exploration and use of outer space for peaceful purposes," as recognized in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. The use of the radio frequency spectrum for SETI/CETI purposes should be in conformity with the legal principles governing this valuable natural resource, as expressed in the International Telecommunication Convention and related documents, and with allocations of the relevant segments of the spectrum by the competent bodies of the International Telecommunication Union. In the second part the author examines the impact that the detection of extraterrestrial intelligent signals may have on the present body of space law. A possible role for the United Nations in this respect is also explored and a timely interest of the world body in discussing questions relating to this subject is recommended. Consideration of these questions could become a tool helping to concentrate the attention of the world community on problems of common concern and thus to strengthen international cooperation. However, the author believes that a law-making process that would aim at elaborating a special regulation of activities in this field would be premature at this stage. It should be initiated only when the boundary between possibilities and realities is crossed. Finally, the paper outlines some likely transformation in our space law thinking that would be the consequence of the detection of extraterrestrial intelligent signals. Elaboration of the principles and norms to govern relations between the international community of our own planet and other intelligent communities in the universe would add a new dimension to the present body of outer space

  10. New Fiber Reinforced Waterless Concrete for Extraterrestrial Structural Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toutanji, H.; Tucker, D.; Ethridge, E.

    2005-01-01

    Commercial use of sulfur concrete on Earth is well established, particularly in corrosive, e.g., acid and salt, environments. Having found troilite (FeS) on the Moon raises the question of using extracted sulfur as a lunar construction mate: iii an attractive alternative to conventional concrete as it does not require water For the purpose of this paper it is assumed that lunar ore is mined, refined, and the raw sulfur processed with appropriate lunar regolith to form, for example, brick and beam elements. Glass fibers produced from regolith were used as a reinforcement to improve the mechanical properties of the sulfur concrete. Glass fibers and glass rebar were produced by melting the lunar regolith simulant. Lunar regolith stimulant was melted in a 25 cc Pt-Rh crucible in a Sybron Thermoline 46100 high temperature MoSi2 furnace at melting temperatures of 1450 to 1600G. The glass melt wets the ceramic rod and long continuous glass fibers were easily hand drawn. The glass fibers were immediately coated with a protective polymer to maintain the mechanical strength. The viability of sulfur concrete as a construction material for extraterrestrial application is presented. The mechanical properties of the glass fiber reinforced sulfur concrete were investigated.

  11. Astrobiology in culture: the search for extraterrestrial life as "science".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billings, Linda

    2012-10-01

    This analysis examines the social construction of authority, credibility, and legitimacy for exobiology/astrobiology and, in comparison, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), considering English-language conceptions of these endeavors in scientific culture and popular culture primarily in the United States. The questions that define astrobiology as a scientific endeavor are multidisciplinary in nature, and this endeavor is broadly appealing to public audiences as well as to the scientific community. Thus, it is useful to examine astrobiology in culture-in scientific culture, official culture, and popular culture. A researcher may explore science in culture, science as culture, by analyzing its rhetoric, the primary means that people use to construct their social realities-their cultural environment, as it were. This analysis follows this path, considering scientific and public interest in astrobiology and SETI and focusing on scientific and official constructions of the two endeavors. This analysis will also consider whether and how scientific and public conceptions of astrobiology and SETI, which are related but at the same time separate endeavors, converge or diverge and whether and how these convergences or divergences affect the scientific authority, credibility, and legitimacy of these endeavors.

  12. Detection of /sup 4/He in stratospheric particles gives evidence of extraterrestrial origin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rajan, R S [Carnegie Institution of Washington, D.C. (USA). Dept. of Terrestrial Magnetism; Brownlee, D E; Tomandl, D; Hodge, P W; Farrar, H; Britten, R A

    1977-05-12

    The detection of large concentrations of /sup 4/He in some ..mu..m size stratospheric particles collected during the past 2 years is here reported. The final /sup 4/He concentrations ranged from 0.002 to 0.25 cc/gm. Such high concentrations confirm that the particles were extraterrestrial and that some of them were exposed to solar wind for at least 10 to 100 years; also, since solar wind ions are implanted only to depths of approximately 500 A, the measurements also indicate that the particles existed as small particles in space and were not produced in the atmosphere by fragmentation of larger meteoroids. The possibility that the observed He could have been the product of decaying U appears remote. Since micrometeorites probably have cometary origin, they are potentially a valuable source of primitive Solar System matter.

  13. Turn-off-the-Month Effect on Stocks in LQ45 Index and Various Sectors in the Indonesia Stock Exchange using GARCH (p,q

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galih Pandekar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There are few types of anomalies that occur in the Indonesia Stock Exchange, for example monthly effect, day-of-the-week effect, January effect, holiday effect, and turn-of-the-month effect. The existence of these anomalies is in contrast to the efficient market hypothesis theory, due to a signifi-cant difference in returns during certain periods. By using time-series analysis and the GARCH(p,q method, the existence of the turn-of-the-month effect has been found in the Jakarta Composite Index, sectoral indexes, and stocks in LQ45. The turn-of-the-month effect seems to be seen in the last two days and the four previous days of each month. The January effect does not incite the turn-of-the-month effect. The turn-of-the-month effect appears due to an increasing volume of stocks acquired by investment managers who want to see their portfolio performance better. ";} // -->activate javascript

  14. Curating NASA's future extraterrestrial sample collections: How do we achieve maximum proficiency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbin, Francis; Evans, Cynthia; Allton, Judith; Fries, Marc; Righter, Kevin; Zolensky, Michael; Zeigler, Ryan

    2016-07-01

    Introduction: The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10E "Curation of Extraterrestrial Materials", JSC is charged with "The curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions." The Directive goes on to define Curation as including "…documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for research, education, and public outreach." Here we describe some of the ongoing efforts to ensure that the future activities of the NASA Curation Office are working to-wards a state of maximum proficiency. Founding Principle: Curatorial activities began at JSC (Manned Spacecraft Center before 1973) as soon as design and construction planning for the Lunar Receiving Laboratory (LRL) began in 1964 [1], not with the return of the Apollo samples in 1969, nor with the completion of the LRL in 1967. This practice has since proven that curation begins as soon as a sample return mission is conceived, and this founding principle continues to return dividends today [e.g., 2]. The Next Decade: Part of the curation process is planning for the future, and we refer to these planning efforts as "advanced curation" [3]. Advanced Curation is tasked with developing procedures, technology, and data sets necessary for curating new types of collections as envisioned by NASA exploration goals. We are (and have been) planning for future curation, including cold curation, extended curation of ices and volatiles, curation of samples with special chemical considerations such as perchlorate-rich samples, curation of organically- and biologically-sensitive samples, and the use of minimally invasive analytical techniques (e.g., micro-CT, [4]) to characterize samples. These efforts will be useful for Mars Sample Return

  15. Modelacion del Efecto del Día de la Semana para los Indices Accionarios de Colombia mediante un Modelo STAR GARCH.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Mauricio Rivera Palacio

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se estudia el comportamiento de los retornos de los tres principales índices bursátiles de Colombia: el IBB de la Bolsa de Bogotá, el IBOMED de la Bolsa de Medellin, y el IGBC de Bolsa de Valores de Colombia. A través de un modelo STAR GARCH se identifican dos estados o regiones extremos; mientras en el primero los rendimientos de los índices son, en términos absolutos, bajos y los procesos son estacionarios, en el segundo se tienen grandes pérdidas o ganancias, donde los efectos de los choques son permanentes. Aunque en cada uno de los regímenes el efecto del día de la semana es diferente, los resultados indican que para los tres índices existe un efecto del día de la semana en la media, y un efecto del día en la varianza para la Bolsa de Bogotá y Bolsa de Valores de Colombia. Los resultados contradicen la hipótesis de un mercado de acciones efciente en información.

  16. Análisis de la volatilidad del índice principal del mercado bursátil mexicano, del índice de riesgo país y de la mezcla mexicana de exportación mediante un modelo GARCH trivariado asimétrico || Volatility Analysis of the Core Mexican Stock Market Index, the Country Risk Index, and the Mexican Oil Basket Using an Asymmetric Trivariate GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villalba Padilla, Fátima Irina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Se parametriza de forma conjunta€€ la heteroscedasticidad condicional autorregresiva generalizada que corresponde al comportamiento de la varianza de tres variables: (a el índice de precios y cotizaciones (IPC, indicador principal del mercado bursátil mexicano, (b el emerging markets bond index para México (EMBI, como indicador de riesgo país y (c el precio de la canasta mexicana de tres crudos de exportación (MEZCLA. Las variables se emplean como estimadores de la tendencia de los precios de las acciones, los bonos y los energéticos, respectivamente, con el objetivo final de conformar un portafolio de inversión diversicado que incluya dichos activos. Se presentan los resultados empíricos de un modelo econométrico GARCH trivariado asimétrico. El modelo permite incorporar la covarianza entre las variables para explicar su interrelación y en la estimación se considera el efecto de los choques generados por las innovaciones positivas y negativas. El estudio contempla el periodo de 2002 a 2013. || We jointly parameterized the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity that corresponds to the behavior of the variance of three variables: (a the core Mexican stock market index (IPC, (b the Emerging Markets Bond Index for Mexico (EMBI as country risk pointer and, (c the Mexican three oil basket exports mix (MEZCLA. The variables are used as trend indicators of stocks, bonds and energetics respectively with the ultimate goal of forming a diversified portfolio including such assets. This paper presents the empirical results of an asymmetric econometric trivariate GARCH model. The model incorporates the covariance between the variables in order to explain their relationship and we considered the shocks generated by positive and negative innovations. The study involves the period 2002- 2013.

  17. ASDEX contributions to the 15th European conference on controlled fusion and plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-05-01

    This report is a collection of 23 IPP Garching contributions concerning confinement studies, plasma heating, impurity studies, plasma stability, and plasma diagnostics. 5 of these contributions have been separately indexed into the data base. (GG)

  18. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  19. On the Search for the Amino Acids on the Lunar Surface as it Relates to Other Extraterrestrial Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Richard B.; Kolb, Vera M.

    2009-01-01

    The early search for the amino acids on the lunar surface fines indicated such a low amount of the amino acids that it was deemed insignifi cant. While the later studies seemed to depart in some ways from the earlier results, they were not pursued. In this paper we critically ev aluate the results from the Apollo missions from the new perspective with considerations of the sensitivity of the instrumentation availabl e at the time. We discuss the possible relevance of the lunar results to the findings of the amino acids on the surfaces of other extraterrestrial bodies, such as Mars.

  20. Modeling an Optical and Infrared Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Survey with Exoplanet Direct Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vides, Christina; Macintosh, Bruce; Ruffio, Jean-Baptiste; Nielsen, Eric; Povich, Matthew Samuel

    2018-01-01

    Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) is a direct high contrast imaging instrument coupled to the Gemini South Telescope. Its purpose is to image extrasolar planets around young (~Intelligence), we modeled GPI’s capabilities to detect an extraterrestrial continuous wave (CW) laser broadcasted within the H-band have been modeled. By using sensitivity evaluated for actual GPI observations of young target stars, we produced models of the CW laser power as a function of distance from the star that could be detected if GPI were to observe nearby (~ 3-5 pc) planet-hosting G-type stars. We took a variety of transmitters into consideration in producing these modeled values. GPI is known to be sensitive to both pulsed and CW coherent electromagnetic radiation. The results were compared to similar studies and it was found that these values are competitive to other optical and infrared observations.

  1. Applying Biomimetic Algorithms for Extra-Terrestrial Habitat Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birge, Brian

    2012-01-01

    The objective is to simulate and optimize distributed cooperation among a network of robots tasked with cooperative excavation on an extra-terrestrial surface. Additionally to examine the concept of directed Emergence among a group of limited artificially intelligent agents. Emergence is the concept of achieving complex results from very simple rules or interactions. For example, in a termite mound each individual termite does not carry a blueprint of how to make their home in a global sense, but their interactions based strictly on local desires create a complex superstructure. Leveraging this Emergence concept applied to a simulation of cooperative agents (robots) will allow an examination of the success of non-directed group strategy achieving specific results. Specifically the simulation will be a testbed to evaluate population based robotic exploration and cooperative strategies while leveraging the evolutionary teamwork approach in the face of uncertainty about the environment and partial loss of sensors. Checking against a cost function and 'social' constraints will optimize cooperation when excavating a simulated tunnel. Agents will act locally with non-local results. The rules by which the simulated robots interact will be optimized to the simplest possible for the desired result, leveraging Emergence. Sensor malfunction and line of sight issues will be incorporated into the simulation. This approach falls under Swarm Robotics, a subset of robot control concerned with finding ways to control large groups of robots. Swarm Robotics often contains biologically inspired approaches, research comes from social insect observation but also data from among groups of herding, schooling, and flocking animals. Biomimetic algorithms applied to manned space exploration is the method under consideration for further study.

  2. From Fossils to Astrobiology Records of Life on Earth and Search for Extraterrestrial Biosignatures

    CERN Document Server

    Seckbach, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    From Fossils to Astrobiology reviews developments in paleontology and geobiology that relate to the rapidly-developing field of Astrobiology, the study of life in the Universe. Many traditional areas of scientific study, including astronomy, chemistry and planetary science, contribute to Astrobiology, but the study of the record of life on planet Earth is critical in guiding investigations in the rest of the cosmos. In this varied book, expert scientists from 15 countries present peer-reviewed, stimulating reviews of paleontological and astrobiological studies. The overviews of established and emerging techniques for studying modern and ancient microorganisms on Earth and beyond, will be valuable guides to evaluating biosignatures which could be found in the extraterrestrial surface or subsurface within the Solar System and beyond. This volume also provides discussion on the controversial reports of "nanobacteria" in the Martian meteorite ALH84001. It is a unique volume among Astrobiology monographs in focusi...

  3. Polyphase-discrete Fourier transform spectrum analysis for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence sky survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, G. A.; Gulkis, S.

    1991-01-01

    The sensitivity of a matched filter-detection system to a finite-duration continuous wave (CW) tone is compared with the sensitivities of a windowed discrete Fourier transform (DFT) system and an ideal bandpass filter-bank system. These comparisons are made in the context of the NASA Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) microwave observing project (MOP) sky survey. A review of the theory of polyphase-DFT filter banks and its relationship to the well-known windowed-DFT process is presented. The polyphase-DFT system approximates the ideal bandpass filter bank by using as few as eight filter taps per polyphase branch. An improvement in sensitivity of approx. 3 dB over a windowed-DFT system can be obtained by using the polyphase-DFT approach. Sidelobe rejection of the polyphase-DFT system is vastly superior to the windowed-DFT system, thereby improving its performance in the presence of radio frequency interference (RFI).

  4. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 6, no. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This issue of the ITER EDA (Engineering Design Activities) Newsletter reports on the STATUS OF THE ITER EDA Overview, Design Work, ITER Physics; contains a report of the Third Technical Meeting on Quality Assurance was held at the ITER Garching Joint Work Site on 25-27 November 1996. The objectives of the meeting were to review the progress made in the Implementation of QA and to identify weal areas which require improvement. The focus was on the Large R and D Projects assigned to the EU Home Team(HT) or placed under the responsibility of the Garching JWS. 1 fig, 3 tabs

  5. SETV: an Extension of SETI?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodorani, M.

    2003-02-01

    In the ambit of the SETI Project, a new branch named SETV (Search for Extraterrestrial Visitation) was born very recently due to the international effort of some engineers, astronomers and other researchers, and it is now in a development phase with several monitoring projects. SETV is aimed at investigating, by using well-tested means of physical and technological sciences, the possible evidence of extraterrestrial visitations inside our solar system. On the basis of statistical calculations of galactic migration, and of models coming from standard stellar evolution, Dyson theory and advanced possibilities invoked by theoretical physics, the historical excursus which turned the SETA hypothesis (Search for Extraterrestrial Artifacts), developed in the 80', into the present SETV definition, is presented in detail. The possibility that extraterrestrial intelligences are present inside our solar system with inhabited and/or robotic probes is discussed, including the possibility that our planet is one of their targets. A proposal concerning instrumented multi-wavelength surveys and identification of such exogenous probes is presented.

  6. Study of extraterrestrial disposal of radioactive wastes. Part 2: Preliminary feasibility screening study of extraterrestrial disposal of radioactive wastes in concentrations, matrix materials, and containers designed for storage on earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyland, R. E.; Wohl, M. L.; Thompson, R. L.; Finnegan, P. M.

    1972-01-01

    The results are reported of a preliminary feasibility screening study for providing long-term solutions to the problems of handling and managing radioactive wastes by extraterrestrial transportation of the wastes. Matrix materials and containers are discussed along with payloads, costs, and destinations for candidate space vehicles. The conclusions reached are: (1) Matrix material such as spray melt can be used without exceeding temperature limits of the matrix. (2) The cost in mills per kw hr electric, of space disposal of fission products is 4, 5, and 28 mills per kw hr for earth escape, solar orbit, and solar escape, respectively. (3) A major factor effecting cost is the earth storage time. Based on a normal operating condition design for solar escape, a storage time of more than sixty years is required to make the space disposal charge less than 10% of the bus-bar electric cost. (4) Based on a 10 year earth storage without further processing, the number of shuttle launches required would exceed one per day.

  7. Ion exchange substrates for plant cultivation in extraterrestrial stations and space crafts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soldatov, Vladimir

    2012-07-01

    Ion exchange substrates Biona were specially designed at the Belarus Academy of Sciences for plants cultivation in spacecrafts and extraterrestrial stations. The first versions of such substrates have been successfully used in several space experiments and in a long-term experiment in which three soviet test-spacemen spent a full year in hermetic cabin imitating a lunar station cabin (1067-1968). In this experiment the life support system included a section with about one ton of the ion exchange substrate, which was used to grow ten vegetations of different green cultures used in the food of the test persons. Due to failure of a number of Soviet space experiments, decay of the Soviet Union and the following economic crisis the research in this field carried out in Belarus were re-directed to the needs of usual agriculture, such as adaptation of cell cultures, growing seedlings, rootage of cuttings etc. At present ion exchange substrate Biona are produced in limited amounts at the experimental production plant of the Institute of Physical Organic Chemistry and used in a number of agricultural enterprises. New advanced substrates and technologies for their production have been developed during that time. In the presentation scientific principles of preparation and functioning of ion exchange substrates as well as results of their application for cultivation different plants are described. The ion exchange substrate is a mixture of cation and anion exchangers saturated in a certain proportions with all ions of macro and micro elements. These chemically bound ions are not released to water and become available for plants in exchange to their root metabolites. The substrates contain about 5% mass of nutrient elements far exceeding any other nutrient media for plants. They allow generating 3-5 kg of green biomass per kilogram of substrate without adding any fertilizers; they are sterile by the way of production and can be sterilized by usual methods; allow regeneration

  8. CENTAR code for extended nonlinear transient analysis of extraterrestrial reactor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nassersharif, B.; Peer, J.S.; DeHart, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    Current interest in the application of nuclear reactor-driven power systems to space missions has generated a need for a systems simulation code to model and analyze space reactor systems; such a code has been initiated at Texas A and M, and the first version is nearing completion; release was anticipated in the fall of 1987. This code, named CENTAR (Code for Extended Nonlinear Transient Analysis of Extraterrestrial Reactor Systems), is designed specifically for space systems and is highly vectorizable. CENTAR is composed of several specialized modules. A fluids module is used to model fluid behavior throughout the system. A wall heat transfer module models the heat transfer characteristics of all walls, insulation, and structure around the system. A fuel element thermal analysis module is used to predict the temperature behavior and heat transfer characteristics of the reactor fuel rods. A kinetics module uses a six-group point kinetics formulation to model reactivity feedback and control and the ANS 5.1 decay-heat curve to model shutdown decay-heat production. A pump module models the behavior of thermoelectric-electromagnetic pumps, and a heat exchanger module models not only thermal effects in thermoelectric heat exchangers, but also predicts electrical power production for a given configuration. Finally, an accumulator module models coolant expansion/contraction accumulators

  9. Thermal Design for Extra-Terrestrial Regenerative Fuel Cell System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, R.; Guzik, M.; Jakupca, I.; Bennett, W.; Smith, P.; Fincannon, J.

    2017-01-01

    The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) Project is investigating different power systems for various lunar and Martian mission concepts. The AMPS Fuel Cell (FC) team has created two system-level models to evaluate the performance of regenerative fuel cell (RFC) systems employing different fuel cell chemistries. Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells PEMFCs contain a polymer electrolyte membrane that separates the hydrogen and oxygen cavities and conducts hydrogen cations (protons) across the cell. Solid Oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) operate at high temperatures, using a zirconia-based solid ceramic electrolyte to conduct oxygen anions across the cell. The purpose of the modeling effort is to down select one fuel cell chemistry for a more detailed design effort. Figures of merit include the system mass, volume, round trip efficiency, and electrolyzer charge power required. PEMFCs operate at around 60 C versus SOFCs which operate at temperatures greater than 700 C. Due to the drastically different operating temperatures of the two chemistries the thermal control systems (TCS) differ. The PEM TCS is less complex and is characterized by a single pump cooling loop that uses deionized water coolant and rejects heat generated by the system to the environment via a radiator. The solid oxide TCS has its own unique challenges including the requirement to reject high quality heat and to condense the steam produced in the reaction. This paper discusses the modeling of thermal control systems for an extraterrestrial RFC that utilizes either a PEM or solid oxide fuel cell.

  10. Table for monthly average daily extraterrestrial irradiation on horizontal surface and the maximum possible sunshine duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, P.C.

    1984-01-01

    The monthly average daily values of the extraterrestrial irradiation on a horizontal surface (H 0 ) and the maximum possible sunshine duration are two important parameters that are frequently needed in various solar energy applications. These are generally calculated by scientists each time they are needed and by using the approximate short-cut methods. Computations for these values have been made once and for all for latitude values of 60 deg. N to 60 deg. S at intervals of 1 deg. and are presented in a convenient tabular form. Values of the maximum possible sunshine duration as recorded on a Campbell Stoke's sunshine recorder are also computed and presented. These tables should avoid the need for repetition and approximate calculations and serve as a useful ready reference for solar energy scientists and engineers. (author)

  11. Extraterrestrial intelligence and human imagination SETI at the intersection of science, religion, and culture

    CERN Document Server

    Traphagan, John

    2015-01-01

    The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) represents one of the most significant crossroads at which the assumptions and methods of scientific inquiry come into direct contact with—and in many cases conflict with—those of religion. Indeed, at the core of SETI is the same question that motivates many interested in religion: What is the place of humanity in the universe? Both scientists involved with SETI (and in other areas) and those interested in and dedicated to some religious traditions are engaged in contemplating these types of questions, even if their respective approaches and answers differ significantly. This book explores this intersection with a focus on three core points: 1) the relationship between science and religion as it is expressed within the framework of SETI research, 2) the underlying assumptions, many of which are tacitly based upon cultural values common in American society, that have shaped the ways in which SETI researchers have conceptualized the nature of their endeavo...

  12. Nuclear reactor closed Brayton cycle power conversion system optimization trends for extra-terrestrial applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashe, T.L.; Baggenstoss, W.G.; Bons, R.

    1990-01-01

    Extra-terrestrial exploration and development missions of the next century will require reliable, low-mass power generation modules of 100 kW e and more. These modules will be required to support both fixed-base and manned rover/explorer power needs. Low insolation levels at and beyond Mars and long periods of darkness on the moon make solar conversion less desirable for surface missions. For these missions, a closed Brayton cycle energy conversion system coupled with a reactor heat source is a very attractive approach. The authors conducted parametric studies to assess optimized system design trends for nuclear-Brayton systems as a function of operating environment and user requirements. The inherent design flexibility of the closed Brayton cycle energy conversion system permits ready adaptation of the system to future design constraints. This paper describes a dramatic contrast between system designs requiring man-rated shielding. The paper also considers the ramification of using indigenous materials to provide reactor shielding for a fixed-base power source

  13. Accurate computations of monthly average daily extraterrestrial irradiation and the maximum possible sunshine duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, P.C.

    1985-12-01

    The monthly average daily values of the extraterrestrial irradiation on a horizontal plane and the maximum possible sunshine duration are two important parameters that are frequently needed in various solar energy applications. These are generally calculated by solar scientists and engineers each time they are needed and often by using the approximate short-cut methods. Using the accurate analytical expressions developed by Spencer for the declination and the eccentricity correction factor, computations for these parameters have been made for all the latitude values from 90 deg. N to 90 deg. S at intervals of 1 deg. and are presented in a convenient tabular form. Monthly average daily values of the maximum possible sunshine duration as recorded on a Campbell Stoke's sunshine recorder are also computed and presented. These tables would avoid the need for repetitive and approximate calculations and serve as a useful ready reference for providing accurate values to the solar energy scientists and engineers

  14. Deep-sea spherules from Pacific clay - Mass distribution and influx rate. [extraterrestrial origins from optical and electron microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrell, M. T.; Davis, P. A., Jr.; Nishiizumi, K.; Millard, H. T., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    From 411 kg of Pacific clay, 22 mg of stony spherules and 50 mg of iron spherules larger than 150 microns were concentrated. The extraterrestrial origin of these particles was evaluated with the aid of optical and electron microscopy and atomic absorption elemental analysis. An expression for the integral number of stony particles from this sediment in the mass range 20-300 micrograms was derived. The world-wide influx rate of stony particles in the mass range which survive atmospheric heating and ocean sediment storage is calculated to be 90 tons/yr. The relative contributions of ablation debris vs fused interplanetary dust to the influx of stony spherules is discussed, but no conclusions could be made.

  15. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 10, special issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-07-01

    This ITER EDA Newsletter includes summaries of the reports of ITER EDA JCT Physics unit about ITER physics R and D during the Engineering Design Activities (EDA), ITER EDA JCT Naka JWC ITER technology R and D during the EDA, and Safety, Environment and Health group of ITER EDA JCT, Garching JWS on EDA activities related to safety

  16. Physics of charged cosmic rays with the AMS experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialle, J.P

    2000-04-01

    The AMS experiment aims at searching for primordial antimatter, non-baryonic dark matter, and measuring with high statistics and high accuracy the electrically charged cosmic ray particles and light nuclei in the extraterrestrial space beyond the atmosphere. AMS is the first magnetic spectrometer which will be flown in space. It will be installed for 3 years on the international space station (ISS) in 2003. A test flight with the space shuttle DISCOVERY took place in June 1998 with a first detector and gave many results: best limit on the existence of antinuclei, fluxes of protons, leptons, and helium nuclei above the geomagnetic threshold, existence of a secondary flux below the geomagnetic threshold. These results are described below. The physics goal and perspectives for AMS on the space station with an improved detector are described as well. (author)

  17. An alternative origin for extraterrestrial biomolecules from the hot and ionized photosphere of the protosolar nebula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekaert, D. V.; Derenne, S.; Tissandier, L.; Marrocchi, Y.; Anquetil, C.; Marty, B.

    2017-12-01

    Organic matter (OM) synthesized from plasma experiments (so-called Nebulotron) can provide an insight into the processes of organosynthesis within the ionized gas phase of the protosolar nebula (PSN). Organic materials recovered from Nebulotron experiments have a record of success in reproducing key features of chondritic insoluble organic matter (IOM), including the aromatic/aliphatic and soluble/insoluble ratios [1], the occurrence of D/H hot and cold spots [2], spectral features as well as elementary and isotopic patterns observed in trapped noble gases [3]. However, up until now little attention has been paid to the soluble fraction of the recovered OM (SOM). In this study, a high-vacuum plasma setting was designed to produce organic condensates from a CO-N2-H2 gas mixture reminiscent of the PSN. The chemical diversity of the synthetized SOM has been investigated by gas chromatography - mass spectrometry. Our results show that a large range of biomolecules detected in meteorites and comets could have been directly synthetized from the gas phase of the PSN under high ionization rates and temperatures > 800 K. Among other molecules, urea, formamide, glycerol, hydantoin, carboxylic acids, as well as amino acid and nucleobase derivatives are reported. While photochemical processing of interstellar icy grains or asteroidal aqueous alteration are often advocated for the origin of biomolecules in extraterrestrial samples, our results suggest that biomolecule production was also effective in the hot and ionized photosphere of the PSN. Interestingly, solid-state 13C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectra of the Nebulotron IOM, indicates that they are very low in aromatics relative to extraterrestrial samples. Given that aromatic units in meteoritic IOM likely result from the cyclization/aromatization of aliphatic chains in the gas [1], Nebulotron-like aliphatic materials could represent the initial precursors of meteoritic OM [4]. These materials would be widespread in the

  18. The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xueyong; An, Haizhong; Huang, Shupei; Wen, Shaobo

    2017-01-01

    Aiming to investigate the evolution of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in the time and frequency dimensions, we employed WTI crude oil prices, the S&P 500 (USA) index and the MICEX index (Russia) for the period Jan. 2003-Dec. 2014 as sample data. We first applied a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK method to examine the spillover features in frequency dimension. To consider the evolution of spillover effects in time dimension at multiple-scales, we then divided the full sample period into three sub-periods, pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period. The results indicate that spillover effects vary across wavelet scales in terms of strength and direction. By analysis the time-varying linkage, we found the different evolution features of spillover effects between the Oil-US stock market and Oil-Russia stock market. The spillover relationship between oil and US stock market is shifting to short-term while the spillover relationship between oil and Russia stock market is changing to all time scales. That result implies that the linkage between oil and US stock market is weakening in the long-term, and the linkage between oil and Russia stock market is getting close in all time scales. This may explain the phenomenon that the US stock index and the Russia stock index showed the opposite trend with the falling of oil price in the post-crisis period.

  19. Surface biosignatures of exo-earths: remote detection of extraterrestrial life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegde, Siddharth; Paulino-Lima, Ivan G; Kent, Ryan; Kaltenegger, Lisa; Rothschild, Lynn

    2015-03-31

    Exoplanet discovery has made remarkable progress, with the first rocky planets having been detected in the central star's liquid water habitable zone. The remote sensing techniques used to characterize such planets for potential habitability and life rely solely on our understanding of life on Earth. The vegetation red edge from terrestrial land plants is often used as a direct signature of life, but it occupies only a small niche in the environmental parameter space that binds life on present-day Earth and has been widespread for only about 460 My. To more fully exploit the diversity of the one example of life known, we measured the spectral characteristics of 137 microorganisms containing a range of pigments, including ones isolated from Earth's most extreme environments. Our database covers the visible and near-infrared to the short-wavelength infrared (0.35-2.5 µm) portions of the electromagnetic spectrum and is made freely available from biosignatures.astro.cornell.edu. Our results show how the reflectance properties are dominated by the absorption of light by pigments in the visible portion and by strong absorptions by the cellular water of hydration in the infrared (up to 2.5 µm) portion of the spectrum. Our spectral library provides a broader and more realistic guide based on Earth life for the search for surface features of extraterrestrial life. The library, when used as inputs for modeling disk-integrated spectra of exoplanets, in preparation for the next generation of space- and ground-based instruments, will increase the chances of detecting life.

  20. Development of virtual private network for JT-60SA CAD integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oshima, Takayuki; Fujita, Takaaki; Seki, Masami; Kawashima, Hisato; Hoshino, Katsumichi; Shibanuma, Kiyoshi; Verrecchia, M.; Teuchner, B.

    2010-01-01

    The CAD models will be exchanged and integrated at Naka for JT-60SA, a common computer network efficiently connected between Naka site and the Garching site is needed to be established. Virtual Private Network (VPN) was introduced with LAN on computer network physically-separated from JAEA intranet area and firewall. In July 2009, a new VPN connection between the Naka and Garching sites has been successfully demonstrated using IPSec-VPN technology with a commercial and cost-effective firewall/router for security. It was found that the introduction of the Wide Area File Service (WAFS) could solve the issue of the data transmission time and enhance the usability of the VPN for design integration in JT-60SA. (author)

  1. Laboratory Studies on the Formation of Carbon-Bearing Molecules in Extraterrestrial Environments: From the Gas Phase to the Solid State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, C. S.; Guo, Y.; Gu, X.; Zhang, F.; Bennett, C. J.; Kaiser, R. I.

    2006-01-01

    A detailed knowledge of the formation of carbon-bearing molecules in interstellar ices and in the gas phase of the interstellar medium is of paramount interest to understand the astrochemical evolution of extraterrestrial environments (1). This research also holds strong implications to comprehend the chemical processing of Solar System environments such as icy planets and their moons together with the atmospheres of planets and their satellites (2). Since the present composition of each interstellar and Solar System environment reflects the matter from which it was formed and the processes which have changed the chemical nature since the origin (solar wind, planetary magnetospheres, cosmic ray exposure, photolysis, chemical reactions), a detailed investigation of the physicochemical mechanisms altering the pristine environment is of paramount importance to grasp the contemporary composition. Once these underlying processes have been unraveled, we can identify those molecules, which belonged to the nascent setting, distinguish molecular species synthesized in a later stage, and predict the imminent chemical evolution of, for instance, molecular clouds. Laboratory experiments under controlled physicochemical conditions (temperature, pressure, chemical composition, high energy components) present ideal tools for simulating the chemical evolution of interstellar and Solar System environments. Here, laboratory experiments can predict where and how (reaction mechanisms; chemicals necessary) in extraterrestrial environments and in the interstellar medium complex, carbon bearing molecules can be formed on interstellar grains and in the gas phase. This paper overviews the experimental setups utilized in our laboratory to mimic the chemical processing of gas phase and solid state (ices) environments. These are a crossed molecular beams machine (3) and a surface scattering setup (4). We also present typical results of each setup (formation of amino acids, aldehydes, epoxides

  2. Sixth International Workshop on Laser Physics (LPHYS 97) Volume 8, No. 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    Microcavity Trap F. De Martini, O. Jedrkiewicz, and P. Mataloni Dipartimento di Fisica , Universita di Roma "La Sapienza," Istituto Nationale di...Fizica, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas, Apartado 21827, Caracas 1020 A, Venezuela e-mail: yukalov@solids.iccmp.br Received August...Optics, Garching, Germany Herbert .Walther @ mpq. mpg. de Douwe A. Wiersma University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands wiersma@chem.rug.nl

  3. Teaching Planetary Science as Part of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margot, Jean-Luc; Greenberg, Adam H.

    2017-10-01

    In Spring 2016 and 2017, UCLA offered a course titled "EPSS C179/279 - Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence: Theory and Applications". The course is designed for advanced undergraduate students and graduate students in the science, technical, engineering, and mathematical fields. Each year, students designed an observing sequence for the Green Bank telescope, observed known planetary systems remotely, wrote a sophisticated and modular data processing pipeline, analyzed the data, and presented their results. In 2016, 15 students participated in the course (9U, 5G; 11M, 3F) and observed 14 planetary systems in the Kepler field. In 2017, 17 students participated (15U, 2G; 10M, 7F) and observed 10 planetary systems in the Kepler field, TRAPPIST-1, and LHS 1140. In order to select suitable targets, students learned about planetary systems, planetary habitability, and planetary dynamics. In addition to planetary science fundamentals, students learned radio astronomy fundamentals, collaborative software development, signal processing techniques, and statistics. Evaluations indicate that the course is challenging but that students are eager to learn because of the engrossing nature of SETI. Students particularly value the teamwork approach, the observing experience, and working with their own data. The next offering of the course will be in Spring 2018. Additional information about our SETI work is available at seti.ucla.edu.

  4. Physics of charged cosmic rays with the AMS experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialle, J.P

    2001-01-01

    The electrically charged cosmic rays contain very important information about the mechanisms of stars and galaxies and about primordial universe which cannot be found elsewhere. The AMS experiment aims at searching for primordial antimatter, non-baryonic dark matter, and at measuring with high statistics and high accuracy the electrically charged cosmic ray particles and light nuclei in the extraterrestrial space beyond the atmosphere. AMS is the first magnetic spectrometer which will be flown in space. It will be installed for 3 years on the international space station (ISS) in 2003. A test flight with the space shuttle DISCOVERY took place in June 1998 with a first detector and gave many results: best limit on the existence of antinuclei, fluxes of protons, leptons, and helium nuclei above the geomagnetic threshold, existence of a secondary flux below the geomagnetic threshold. These results are described below. The physics goal and perspectives for AMS on the space station with an improved detector are described as well. (author)

  5. Modelling the Volatility-Return Trade-off when Volatility may be Nonstationary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    In this paper a new GARCH-M type model, denoted the GARCH-AR, is proposed. In particular, it is shown that it is possible to generate a volatility-return trade-off in a regression model simply by introducing dynamics in the standardized disturbance process. Importantly, the volatility in the GARCH......, we provide an empirical illustration showing the empirical relevance of the GARCH-AR model based on modelling a wide range of leading US stock return series....

  6. Carbon and hydrogen isotopic composition of methane and C2+ alkanes in electrical spark discharge: implications for identifying sources of hydrocarbons in terrestrial and extraterrestrial settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telling, Jon; Lacrampe-Couloume, Georges; Sherwood Lollar, Barbara

    2013-05-01

    The low-molecular-weight alkanes--methane, ethane, propane, and butane--are found in a wide range of terrestrial and extraterrestrial settings. The development of robust criteria for distinguishing abiogenic from biogenic alkanes is essential for current investigations of Mars' atmosphere and for future exobiology missions to other planets and moons. Here, we show that alkanes synthesized during gas-phase radical recombination reactions in electrical discharge experiments have values of δ(2)H(methane)>δ(2)H(ethane)>δ(2)H(propane), similar to those of the carbon isotopes. The distribution of hydrogen isotopes in gas-phase radical reactions is likely due to kinetic fractionations either (i) from the preferential incorporation of (1)H into longer-chain alkanes due to the more rapid rate of collisions of the smaller (1)H-containing molecules or (ii) by secondary ion effects. Similar δ(13)C(C1-C2+) and δ(2)H(C1-C2+) patterns may be expected in a range of extraterrestrial environments where gas-phase radical reactions dominate, including interstellar space, the atmosphere and liquid hydrocarbon lakes of Saturn's moon Titan, and the outer atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, and Uranus. Radical recombination reactions at high temperatures and pressures may provide an explanation for the combined reversed δ(13)C(C1-C2+) and δ(2)H(C1-C2+) patterns of terrestrial alkanes documented at a number of high-temperature/pressure crustal sites.

  7. Deep ice and salty oceans of icy worlds, how high pressures influence their thermodynamics and provide constrains on extraterrestrial habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journaux, B.; Brown, J. M.; Bollengier, O.; Abramson, E.

    2017-12-01

    As in Earth arctic and Antarctic regions, suspected extraterrestrial deep oceans in icy worlds (i.e. icy moons and water-rich exoplanets) chemistry and thermodynamic state will strongly depend on their equilibrium with H2O ice and present solutes. Na-Mg-Cl-SO4 salt species are currently the main suspected ionic solutes to be present in deep oceans based on remote sensing, magnetic field measurements, cryovolcanism ice grains chemical analysis and chondritic material aqueous alteration chemical models. Unlike on our planet, deep extraterrestrial ocean might also be interacting at depth with high pressure ices (e.g. III, V, VI, VI, X) which have different behavior compared to ice Ih. Unfortunately, the pressures and temperatures inside these hydrospheres differ significantly from the one found in Earth aqueous environments, so most of our current thermodynamic databases do not cover the range of conditions relevant for modeling realistically large icy worlds interiors. Recent experimental results have shown that the presence of solutes, and more particularly salts, in equilibrium with high pressure ices have large effects on the stability, buoyancy and chemistry of all the phases present at these extreme conditions. High pressure in-situ measurements using diamond anvil cell apparatus were operated both at the University of washington and at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility on aqueous systems phase diagrams with Na-Mg-Cl-SO4 species, salt incorporation in high pressure ices and density inversions between the solid and the fluids. These results suggest a more complex picture of the interior structure, dynamic and chemical evolution of large icy worlds hydrospheres when solutes are taken into account, compared to current models mainly using pure water. Based on our in-situ experimental measurements, we propose the existence of new liquid environments at greater depths and the possibility of solid state transport of solute through the high pressure ices

  8. Accretion rate of extraterrestrial {sup 41}Ca in Antarctic snow samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gómez-Guzmán, J.M., E-mail: jose.gomez@ph.tum.de [Technische Universität München, Fakultät für Physik, James-Franck-Strasse 1, 85748 Garching (Germany); Bishop, S.; Faestermann, T.; Famulok, N.; Fimiani, L.; Hain, K.; Jahn, S.; Korschinek, G.; Ludwig, P. [Technische Universität München, Fakultät für Physik, James-Franck-Strasse 1, 85748 Garching (Germany); Rodrigues, D. [Laboratorio TANDAR, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica (Argentina)

    2015-10-15

    Interplanetary Dust Particles (IDPs) are small grains, generally less than a few hundred micrometers in size. Their main source is the Asteroid Belt, located at 3 AU from the Sun, between Mars and Jupiter. During their flight from the Asteroid Belt to the Earth they are irradiated by galactic and solar cosmic rays (GCR and SCR), thus radionuclides are formed, like {sup 41}Ca and {sup 53}Mn. Therefore, {sup 41}Ca (T{sub 1/2} = 1.03 × 10{sup 5} yr) can be used as a key tracer to determine the accretion rate of IDPs onto the Earth because there are no significant terrestrial sources for this radionuclide. The first step of this study consisted to calculate the production rate of {sup 41}Ca in IDPs accreted by the Earth during their travel from the Asteroid Belt. This production rate, used in accordance with the {sup 41}Ca/{sup 40}Ca ratios that will be measured in snow samples from the Antarctica will be used to calculate the amount of extraterrestrial material accreted by the Earth per year. There challenges for this project are, at first, the much longer time for the flight needed by the IDPs to travel from the Asteroid Belt to the Earth in comparison with the {sup 41}Ca half-life yields an early saturation for the {sup 41}Ca/{sup 40}Ca ratio, and second, the importance of selecting the correct sampling site to avoid a high influx of natural {sup 40}Ca, preventing dilution of the {sup 41}Ca/{sup 40}Ca ratio, the quantity measured by AMS.

  9. The gain of single-axis tracked panel according to extraterrestrial radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, T.P.

    2009-01-01

    In the present study, the gain in extraterrestrial radiation received by a single-axis tracked panel relative to a fixed panel was systematically analyzed over a specific period of time. The dynamic angle that the tracked panel should rotate by in order to follow the sun was derived through a series of spherical trigonometric procedures. The instantaneous incident angle of sunlight upon the panel was then calculated, assuming that the panel would simultaneously follow the sun's position. Thus, instantaneous increments of solar energy received by the tracked panel relative to the fixed panel are originally presented. The results show that the angle the tracked panel has to rotate by is 0 deg. at solar noon, and increases towards dawn or dusk. The incident angle of sunlight upon the tracked panel is always smaller than that upon the fixed panel, except at solar noon. As for panels installed with a yearly optimal tilt angle in Taipei, the gains are between 36.3% and 62.1% for four particular days of year, between 37.8% and 60.8% for the four seasons and 49.3% over the entire year. The amount of radiation collected by the tracked panel is enhanced as the maximum rotation angle is increased. The irradiation ratio of the tracked panel to the fixed panel is close to 1.5 for latitudes below 65 deg. and gradually increases for latitudes above this. The yearly optimal tilt angle of a south-facing fixed panel is approximately equal to 0.9 multiplied by the latitude (i.e. 0.9 x φ) for latitudes below 65 deg. and is about 56 + 0.4 x (φ - 65) otherwise

  10. Extra-terrestrial igneous granites and related rocks: A review of their occurrence and petrogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonin, Bernard

    2012-11-01

    The telluric planets and the asteroid belt display the same internal structure with a metallic inner core and a silicate outer shell. Experimental data and petrological evidence in silicate systems show that granite can be produced by extreme igneous differentiation through various types of igneous processes. On Moon, 4.4-3.9 Ga granite clasts display dry mineral assemblages. They correspond to at least 8 discrete intrusive events. Large K/Ca enrichment and low REE abundances in granite relative to KREEP are consistent with silicate liquid immiscibility, a process observed in melt inclusions within olivine of lunar basalts and in lunar meteorites. Steep-sided domes identified by remote sensing can represent intrusive or extrusive felsic formations. On Mars, black-and-white rhythmic layers observed on the Tharsis rise along the flanks of the peripheral scarps of the Tharsis Montes giant volcanoes suggest the possible eruption of felsic pyroclastites. Though no true granites were found so far in the Martian SNC meteorites, felsic glasses and mesostases were identified and a component close to terrestrial continental (granitic) crust is inferred from trace element and isotope systematics. Venus has suffered extensive volcanic resurfacing, whereas folded and faulted areas resemble terrestrial continents. Near large shield volcanoes, with dominant basaltic compositions, steep-sided domes have been interpreted as non-degassed silicic extrusions. The hypothesis of a granitic component is "tantalising". Extra-terrestrial granite is frequently found as clasts and mesostases in asteroidal meteorites. Porphyritic textures, with alkali feldspar crystals up to several centimetres in size, were observed in silicate enclaves within iron meteorites. In the chondrite clan, polymict breccias can contain granitic clasts, whose provenance is debated. One clast from the Adzhi-Bogdo meteorite yields a 4.53 ± 0.03 Ga Pb-Pb age, making it the oldest known granite in the solar system. The

  11. Pieces of Other Worlds - Enhance YSS Education and Public Outreach Events with Extraterrestrial Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C.

    2010-12-01

    During the Year of the Solar System spacecraft will encounter two comets; orbit the asteroid Vesta, continue to explore Mars with rovers, and launch robotic explorers to the Moon and Mars. We have pieces of all these worlds in our laboratories. Extensive information about these unique materials, as well as actual lunar samples and meteorites, is available for display and education. The Johnson Space Center (JSC) curates NASA's extraterrestrial samples to support research, education, and public outreach. At the current time JSC curates five types of extraterrestrial samples: Moon rocks and soils collected by the Apollo astronauts Meteorites collected on US expeditions to Antarctica (including rocks from the Moon, Mars, and many asteroids including Vesta) “Cosmic dust” (asteroid and comet particles) collected by high-altitude aircraft Solar wind atoms collected by the Genesis spacecraft Comet and interstellar dust particles collected by the Stardust spacecraft These rocks, soils, dust particles, and atoms continue to be studied intensively by scientists around the world. Descriptions of the samples, research results, thousands of photographs, and information on how to request research samples are on the JSC Curation website: http://curator.jsc.nasa.gov/ NASA is eager for scientists and the public to have access to these exciting samples through our various loan procedures. NASA provides a limited number of Moon rock samples for either short-term or long-term displays at museums, planetariums, expositions, and professional events that are open to the public. The JSC Public Affairs Office handles requests for such display samples. Requestors should apply in writing to Mr. Louis Parker, JSC Exhibits Manager. He will advise successful applicants regarding provisions for receipt, display, and return of the samples. All loans will be preceded by a signed loan agreement executed between NASA and the requestor's organization. Email address: louis.a.parker@nasa.gov Sets

  12. AN OPPORTUNISTIC SEARCH FOR EXTRATERRESTRIAL INTELLIGENCE (SETI) WITH THE MURCHISON WIDEFIELD ARRAY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tingay, S. J.; Tremblay, C.; Walsh, A.; Urquhart, R. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR), Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102 (Australia)

    2016-08-20

    A spectral line image cube generated from 115 minutes of MWA data that covers a field of view of 400 sq, deg. around the Galactic Center is used to perform the first Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) with the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA). Our work constitutes the first modern SETI experiment at low radio frequencies, here between 103 and 133 MHz, paving the way for large-scale searches with the MWA and, in the future, the low-frequency Square Kilometre Array. Limits of a few hundred mJy beam{sup −1} for narrowband emission (10 kHz) are derived from our data, across our 400 sq. deg. field of view. Within this field, 45 exoplanets in 38 planetary systems are known. We extract spectra at the locations of these systems from our image cube to place limits on the presence of narrow line emission from these systems. We then derive minimum isotropic transmitter powers for these exoplanets; a small handful of the closest objects (10 s of pc) yield our best limits of order 10{sup 14} W (Equivalent Isotropic Radiated Power). These limits lie above the highest power directional transmitters near these frequencies currently operational on Earth. A SETI experiment with the MWA covering the full accessible sky and its full frequency range would require approximately one month of observing time. The MWA frequency range, its southern hemisphere location on an extraordinarily radio quiet site, its very large field of view, and its high sensitivity make it a unique facility for SETI.

  13. Research into thermonuclear fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schumacher, U.

    1989-01-01

    The experimental and theoretical studies carried out in close international cooperation in the field of thermonuclear fusion by magnetic plasma confinement have achieved such progress towards higher plasma temperatures and densities, longer confinement times and, thus, increased fusion product, that emphasis now begins to be shifted from problems of physics to those of technology as a next major step is being prepared towards a large international project (ITER) to achieve thermonuclear burning. The generation and maintenance of a burning fusion plasma in an experimental physics phase will be followed by a phase of technical materials studies at high fluxes of fusion neutrons. These goals have been pursued since 1983 by an international study group at Garching working on the design of a Next European Torus (NET). Since May 1988, an international study group comprising ten experts each from the USSR, USA, Japan, and the European Community has begun to work on a design draft of ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) in Garching under the auspices of IAEA. (orig.) [de

  14. Simulating Extraterrestrial Ices in the Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berisford, D. F.; Carey, E. M.; Hand, K. P.; Choukroun, M.

    2017-12-01

    Several ongoing experiments at JPL attempt to simulate the ice environment for various regimes associated with icy moons. The Europa Penitent Ice Experiment (EPIX) simulates the surface environment of an icy moon, to investigate the physics of ice surface morphology growth. This experiment features half-meter-scale cryogenic ice samples, cryogenic radiative sink environment, vacuum conditions, and diurnal cycling solar simulation. The experiment also includes several smaller fixed-geometry vacuum chambers for ice simulation at Earth-like and intermediate temperature and vacuum conditions for development of surface morphology growth scaling relations. Additionally, an ice cutting facility built on a similar platform provides qualitative data on the mechanical behavior of cryogenic ice with impurities under vacuum, and allows testing of ice cutting/sampling tools relevant for landing spacecraft. A larger cutting facility is under construction at JPL, which will provide more quantitative data and allow full-scale sampling tool tests. Another facility, the JPL Ice Physics Laboratory, features icy analog simulant preparation abilities that range icy solar system objects such as Mars, Ceres and the icy satellites of Saturn and Jupiter. In addition, the Ice Physics Lab has unique facilities for Icy Analog Tidal Simulation and Rheological Studies of Cryogenic Icy Slurries, as well as equipment to perform thermal and mechanical properties testing on icy analog materials and their response to sinusoidal tidal stresses.

  15. The limits of extremophilic life expanded under extraterrestrial environment-simulated experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lage, C.; Dalmaso, G.; Teixeira, L.; Bendia, A.; Rosado, A.

    2012-09-01

    Astrobiology is a brand new area of science that seeks to understand the origin and dynamics of life in the universe. Several hypotheses to explain life in the cosmic context have been developed throughout human history, but only now technology has allowed many of them to be tested. Laboratory experiments have been able to show how chemical elements essential to life, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and hydrogen combine in biologically important compounds. Interestingly, these compounds are found universally. As these compounds were combined to the point of originating cells and complex organisms is still a challenge to be unveiled by science. However, our 4.5 billion years-old solar system was born within a 10-billion years-old universe. Thus, simple cells like microorganisms may have had time to form in planets older than ours or other suitable molecular places in the universe. One hypothesis to explain the origin of life on Earth is called panspermia, which predicts that microbial life could have been formed in the universe billions of years ago, traveling between planets, and inseminating units of life that could have become more complex in habitable planets like ours. A project designed to test the viability of extremophile microorganisms exposed to simulated extraterrestrial environments is ongoing at the Carlos Chagas Filho Institute of Biophysics to test whether microbial life could withstand those inhospitable environments. Ultra-resistant (known or novel ones) microorganisms collected from terrestrial extreme environments, extremophiles, have been exposed to intense radiation sources simulating solar radiation (at synchrotron accelerators), capable of emitting in a few hours radiation equivalent of million years accumulated doses. The results obtained in these experiments reveal the interesting possibility of the existence of microbial life beyond Earth.

  16. Improved evaluations and integral data testing for FENDL. Summary report of the IAEA advisory group meeting held in Garching, Germany, 12 to 16 September 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganesan, S.

    1994-12-01

    The IAEA Nuclear Data Section, in co-operation with several national nuclear data centres and research groups, has created the first version of an internationally available Fusion Evaluated Nuclear Data Library (FENDL-1). The FENDL library has been selected to serve as a comprehensive source of processed and tested nuclear data tailored to the requirements of the Engineering and Development Activities (EDA) of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Project and other fusion-related development projects. Within the scope of the FENDL project, the International Atomic Energy Agency performs the task of coordinating the assembling, processing and testing of a comprehensive, fusion-relevant Fusion Evaluated Nuclear Data Library with unrestricted international distribution. The present report contains the summary of the IAEA Advisory Group Meeting on ''Improved Evaluations and Integral Data Testing for FENDL'', 12-16 September 1994 hosted by the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching, Germany. The report presents the current status of the FENDL activity and the future work plans in the form of conclusions and recommendations of the four Working Groups of the Advisory Group Meeting on (1) Basic Evaluations towards FENDL/E-2.0 for ITER Design, (2) Experimental and Calculational Benchmarks on Fusion Neutronics for FENDL Validation, (3) Production and Interfacing of FENDL Libraries to ITER Design, and, (4) Activation. (author)

  17. Five years of Project META - An all-sky narrow-band radio search for extraterrestrial signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Paul; Sagan, Carl

    1993-01-01

    We have conducted a five-year search of the northern sky (delta between 30 and 60 deg) for narrow-band radio signals near the 1420 MHz line of neutral hydrogen, and its second harmonic, using an 8.4 x 10 exp 6 channel Fourier spectrometer of 0.05 Hz resolution and 400 kHz instantaneous bandwidth. The observing frequency was corrected both for motions with respect to three astronomical inertial frames, and for the effect of Earth's rotation, which provides a characteristic changing Doppler signature for narrow-band signals of extraterrestrial origin. Among the 6 x 10 exp 13 spectral channels searched, we have found 37 candidate events exceeding the average detection threshold of 1.7 x 10 exp -23 W/sq m, none of which was detected upon reobservation. The strongest of these appear to be dominated by rare processor errors. However, the strongest signals that survive culling for terrestrial interference lie in or near the Galactic plane. We describe the search and candidate events, and set limits on the prevalence of supercivilizations transmitting Doppler-precompensated beacons at H I or its second harmonic. We conclude with recommendations for future searches, based upon these findings, and a description of our next-generation search system.

  18. Hybrid LIBS and Raman Spectroscopy Standoff Detection System, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — To address the NASA need for robotic platform-mounted instruments that can chemically analyze extraterrestrial surfaces, Physical Optics Corporation (POC) proposes...

  19. Venusians: the Planet Venus in the 18th-Century Extraterrestrial Life Debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duner, David

    2013-05-01

    In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries it became possible to believe in the existence of life on other planets on scientific grounds. Once the Earth was no longer the center of the universe according to Copernicus, once Galileo had aimed his telescope at the Moon and found it a rough globe with mountains and seas, the assumption of life on other planets became much less far-fetched. In general there were no actual differences between Earth and Venus, since both planets orbited the Sun, were of similar size, and possessed mountains and an atmosphere. If there is life on Earth, one may ponder why it could not also exist on Venus. In the extraterrestrial life debate of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, the Moon, our closest celestial body, was the prime candidate for life on other worlds, although a number of scientists and scholars also speculated about life on Venus and on other planets, both within our solar system and beyond its frontiers. This chapter discusses the arguments for life on Venus and those scientific findings that were used to support them, which were based in particular on assumptions and claims that both mountains and an atmosphere had been found on Venus. The transits of Venus in the 1760s became especially important for the notion that life could thrive on Venus. Here, I detect two significant cognitive processes that were at work in the search for life on Venus, i.e., analogical reasoning and epistemic perception, while analogies and interpretations of sensory impressions based on prior knowledge played an important role in astrobiological theories.

  20. Improving ROLO lunar albedo model using PLEIADES-HR satellites extra-terrestrial observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meygret, Aimé; Blanchet, Gwendoline; Colzy, Stéphane; Gross-Colzy, Lydwine

    2017-09-01

    The accurate on orbit radiometric calibration of optical sensors has become a challenge for space agencies which have developed different technics involving on-board calibration systems, ground targets or extra-terrestrial targets. The combination of different approaches and targets is recommended whenever possible and necessary to reach or demonstrate a high accuracy. Among these calibration targets, the moon is widely used through the well-known ROLO (RObotic Lunar Observatory) model developed by USGS. A great and worldwide recognized work was done to characterize the moon albedo which is very stable. However the more and more demanding needs for calibration accuracy have reached the limitations of the model. This paper deals with two mains limitations: the residual error when modelling the phase angle dependency and the absolute accuracy of the model which is no more acceptable for the on orbit calibration of radiometers. Thanks to PLEIADES high resolution satellites agility, a significant data base of moon and stars images was acquired, allowing to show the limitations of ROLO model and to characterize the errors. The phase angle residual dependency is modelled using PLEIADES 1B images acquired for different quasi-complete moon cycles with a phase angle varying by less than 1°. The absolute albedo residual error is modelled using PLEIADES 1A images taken over stars and the moon. The accurate knowledge of the stars spectral irradiance is transferred to the moon spectral albedo using the satellite as a transfer radiometer. This paper describes the data set used, the ROLO model residual errors and their modelling, the quality of the proposed correction and show some calibration results using this improved model.

  1. Antimicrobial Coating for Metallic Surfaces, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA needs innovative technologies to protect biological sensors and to prevent contamination of extraterrestrial bodies such as Europa, Enceladus or Mars. Physical...

  2. Recent developments in volatility modeling and applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Thavaneswaran

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In financial modeling, it has been constantly pointed out that volatility clustering and conditional nonnormality induced leptokurtosis observed in high frequency data. Financial time series data are not adequately modeled by normal distribution, and empirical evidence on the non-normality assumption is well documented in the financial literature (details are illustrated by Engle (1982 and Bollerslev (1986. An ARMA representation has been used by Thavaneswaran et al., in 2005, to derive the kurtosis of the various class of GARCH models such as power GARCH, non-Gaussian GARCH, nonstationary and random coefficient GARCH. Several empirical studies have shown that mixture distributions are more likely to capture heteroskedasticity observed in high frequency data than normal distribution. In this paper, some results on moment properties are generalized to stationary ARMA process with GARCH errors. Application to volatility forecasts and option pricing are also discussed in some detail.

  3. Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costello, Alexandra; Asem, Ebenezer; Gardner, Eldon

    2008-01-01

    Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model. (author)

  4. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 3, no. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    This issue of the ITER EDA (Engineering Design Activities) Newsletter contains reports on the Fifth ITER Council Meeting held in Garching, Germany, 27-28 January 1994, a visit (28 January 1994) of an international group of Harvard Fellows to the San Diego Joint Work Site, the Inauguration Ceremony of the EC-hosted ITER joint work site in Garching (28 January 1994), on an ITER Technical Meeting on Assembly and Maintenance held in Garching, Germany, January 19-26, 1994, and a report on a Technical Committee Meeting on radiation effects on in-vessel components held in Garching, Germany, November 15-19, 1993, as well as an ITER Status Report

  5. A failure of serendipity: the Square Kilometre Array will struggle to eavesdrop on human-like extraterrestrial intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forgan, D. H.; Nichol, R. C.

    2011-04-01

    The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will operate in frequency ranges often used by military radar and other communications technology. It has been shown that if extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) communicate using similar technology, then the SKA should be able to detect such transmissions up to distances of ~100 pc (~300 light years) from Earth. However, Mankind has greatly improved its communications technology over the last century, dramatically reducing signal leakage and making the Earth ‘radio quiet’. If ETIs follow the same pattern as the human race, will we be able to detect their signal leakage before they become radio quiet? We investigate this question using Monte Carlo realization techniques to simulate the growth and evolution of intelligent life in the Galaxy. We show that if civilizations are ‘human’ in nature (i.e. they are only ‘radio loud’ for ~100 years, and can only detect each other with an SKA-like instrument out to 100 pc, within a maximum communication time of 100 years), then the probability for such civilizations accidentally detecting each other is low (~10-7), much lower than if other, dedicated communication techniques are permissible (e.g. optical SETI or neutrino communication).

  6. Fluid-induced organic synthesis in the solar nebula recorded in extraterrestrial dust from meteorites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollmer, Christian; Kepaptsoglou, Demie; Leitner, Jan; Busemann, Henner; Spring, Nicole H; Ramasse, Quentin M; Hoppe, Peter; Nittler, Larry R

    2014-10-28

    Isotopically anomalous carbonaceous grains in extraterrestrial samples represent the most pristine organics that were delivered to the early Earth. Here we report on gentle aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy investigations of eight (15)N-rich or D-rich organic grains within two carbonaceous Renazzo-type (CR) chondrites and two interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) originating from comets. Organic matter in the IDP samples is less aromatic than that in the CR chondrites, and its functional group chemistry is mainly characterized by C-O bonding and aliphatic C. Organic grains in CR chondrites are associated with carbonates and elemental Ca, which originate either from aqueous fluids or possibly an indigenous organic source. One distinct grain from the CR chondrite NWA 852 exhibits a rim structure only visible in chemical maps. The outer part is nanoglobular in shape, highly aromatic, and enriched in anomalous nitrogen. Functional group chemistry of the inner part is similar to spectra from IDP organic grains and less aromatic with nitrogen below the detection limit. The boundary between these two areas is very sharp. The direct association of both IDP-like organic matter with dominant C-O bonding environments and nanoglobular organics with dominant aromatic and C-N functionality within one unique grain provides for the first time to our knowledge strong evidence for organic synthesis in the early solar system activated by an anomalous nitrogen-containing parent body fluid.

  7. Comparison of historically simulated VaR: Evidence from oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costello, Alexandra [Seminole Canada Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada); Asem, Ebenezer; Gardner, Eldon [Faculty of Management, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB (Canada)

    2008-09-15

    Cabedo and Moya [Cabedo, J.D., Moya, I., 2003. Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach. Energy Economics 25, 239-253] find that ARMA with historical simulation delivers VaR forecasts that are superior to those from GARCH. We compare the ARMA with historical simulation to the semi-parametric GARCH model proposed by Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos, K., Vosper, L., 1999. VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities. Journal of Futures Markets 19 (5), 583-602]. The results suggest that the semi-parametric GARCH model generates VaR forecasts that are superior to the VaR forecasts from the ARMA with historical simulation. This is due to the fact that GARCH captures volatility clustering. Our findings suggest that Cabedo and Moya's conclusion is mainly driven by the normal distributional assumption imposed on the future risk structure in the GARCH model. (author)

  8. Physics Colloquium | 25 February

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    Critical Tests of Theory of the Early Universe using the Cosmic Microwave Background, by Prof. Eiichiro Komatsu, Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Garching, (Germany). Monday 25 February 2013 at 17:00 École de Physique, Auditoire Stueckelberg 24, quai Ernest-Ansermet, 1211 Genève 4 Abstract: The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), the fossil light of the Big Bang, is the oldest light that one can ever hope to observe in our Universe. The CMB provides us with a direct image of the Universe when it was still an "infant" - 380,000 years old. The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) has mapped the microwave sky in five frequency bands for nine years since 2001, creating a full-sky CMB map with the unprecedented precision. The WMAP data have enabled us to obtain a wealth of cosmological information, such as the composition, age, geometry, and history of the Universe. Yet, can we go further and learn about the primordial universe, when it was much younge...

  9. Transportation of 33 irradiated MTR fuel assemblies from FRM/Garching to Savannah River Site, USA, using a GNS transport cask and using a new loading device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreesen, K.; Goetze, H.G.; Holst, L.; Gerstenberg, H.; Schreckenbach, K.

    2000-01-01

    According to the Department of Energy program of the return spent fuel from the foreign research reactors operators, 33 irradiated MTR box shaped fuel assemblies from the Technical University Munich were shipped to SRS/USA. The fuel assemblies were irradiated for typically 800 full days and, after a sufficient cooling time, loaded into a GNS 16 cask. The GNS 16 cask is a new transport cask for box shaped MTR fuel assemblies and TRIGA fuel assemblies and was used for the first time at the FRM Garching. The capacity of the cask is 33 box shaped MTR fuel assemblies. During the loading of the fuel assemblies, a newly developed loading device was used. The main components of the loading device are the transfer flask, the shielded loading lock, adapter plate and a mobile water tank. The loading device works mechanically with manpower. For the handling of the transfer flask, a crane with a capacity of 5 metric tons is necessary. During installation of the lid the mobile water pool is filled with demineralized water and the shielded loading passage is taken away. After that the lid is put on the cask. After drainage, the mobile water pool is disassembled, and the cask is dewatered. Finally leak tests of all seals are made. The achieved leakage rate was -5 Pa x I/s. The work in FRM was done between 03.02.99 and 12.02.99 including a dry run and leak test. (author)

  10. Realized Beta GARCH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Voev, Valeri Radkov

    2014-01-01

    is particularly useful for modeling financial returns during periods of rapid changes in the underlying covariance structure. When applied to market returns in conjunction with returns on an individual asset, the model yields a dynamic model specification of the conditional regression coefficient that is known...

  11. Searching for Extraterrestrial Amino Acids in a Contaminated Meteorite: Amino Acid Analyses of the Canakkale L6 Chondrite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, A. S.; Elsila, J. E.; Glavin, D. P.; Dworkin, J. P.; Ornek, C. Y.; Esenoglu, H. H.; Unsalan, O.; Ozturk, B.

    2016-01-01

    Amino acids can serve as important markers of cosmochemistry, as their abundances and isomeric and isotopic compositions have been found to vary predictably with changes in parent body chemistry and alteration processes. Amino acids are also of astrobiological interest because they are essential for life on Earth. Analyses of a range of meteorites, including all groups of carbonaceous chondrites, along with H, R, and LL chondrites, ureilites, and a martian shergottite, have revealed that amino acids of plausible extraterrestrial origin can be formed in and persist after a wide range of parent body conditions. However, amino acid analyses of L6 chondrites to date have not provided evidence for indigenous amino acids. In the present study, we performed amino acid analysis on larger samples of a different L6 chondite, Canakkale, to determine whether or not trace levels of indigenous amino acids could be found. The Canakkale meteor was an observed fall in late July, 1964, near Canakkale, Turkey. The meteorite samples (1.36 and 1.09 g) analyzed in this study were allocated by C. Y. Ornek, along with a soil sample (1.5 g) collected near the Canakkale recovery site.

  12. The high-resolution extraterrestrial solar spectrum (QASUMEFTS determined from ground-based solar irradiance measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Gröbner

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A high-resolution extraterrestrial solar spectrum has been determined from ground-based measurements of direct solar spectral irradiance (SSI over the wavelength range from 300 to 500 nm using the Langley-plot technique. The measurements were obtained at the Izaña Atmospheric Research Centre from the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Tenerife, Spain, during the period 12 to 24 September 2016. This solar spectrum (QASUMEFTS was combined from medium-resolution (bandpass of 0.86 nm measurements of the QASUME (Quality Assurance of Spectral Ultraviolet Measurements in Europe spectroradiometer in the wavelength range from 300 to 500 nm and high-resolution measurements (0.025 nm from a Fourier transform spectroradiometer (FTS over the wavelength range from 305 to 380 nm. The Kitt Peak solar flux atlas was used to extend this high-resolution solar spectrum to 500 nm. The expanded uncertainties of this solar spectrum are 2 % between 310 and 500 nm and 4 % at 300 nm. The comparison of this solar spectrum with solar spectra measured in space (top of the atmosphere gave very good agreements in some cases, while in some other cases discrepancies of up to 5 % were observed. The QASUMEFTS solar spectrum represents a benchmark dataset with uncertainties lower than anything previously published. The metrological traceability of the measurements to the International System of Units (SI is assured by an unbroken chain of calibrations leading to the primary spectral irradiance standard of the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt in Germany.

  13. Inhabited or Uninhabited? Pitfalls in the Interpretation of Possible Chemical Signatures of Extraterrestrial Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Fox

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The “Rare Earth” hypothesis—put forward by Ward and Brownlee in their 2000 book of the same title—states that prokaryote-type organisms may be common in the universe but animals and higher plants are exceedingly rare. If this idea is correct, the search for extraterrestrial life is essentially the search for microorganisms. Various indicators may be used to detect extant or extinct microbial life beyond Earth. Among them are chemical biosignatures, such as biomolecules and stable isotope ratios. The present minireview focuses on the major problems associated with the identification of chemical biosignatures. Two main types of misinterpretation are distinguished, namely false positive and false negative results. The former can be caused by terrestrial biogenic contaminants or by abiotic products. Terrestrial contamination is a common problem in space missions that search for biosignatures on other planets and moons. Abiotic organics can lead to false positive results if erroneously interpreted as biomolecules, but also to false negatives, for example when an abiotic source obscures a less productive biological one. In principle, all types of putative chemical biosignatures are prone to misinterpretation. Some, however, are more reliable (“stronger” than others. These include: (i homochiral polymers of defined length and sequence, comparable to proteins and polynucleotides; (ii enantiopure compounds; (iii the existence of only a subset of molecules when abiotic syntheses would produce a continuous range of molecules; the proteinogenic amino acids constitute such a subset. These considerations are particularly important for life detection missions to solar system bodies such as Mars, Europa, and Enceladus.

  14. Mechanisms for the inversion of chirality: Global reaction route mapping of stereochemical pathways in a probable chiral extraterrestrial molecule, 2-aminopropionitrile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Ramanpreet; Vikas

    2015-01-01

    2-Aminopropionitrile (APN), a probable candidate as a chiral astrophysical molecule, is a precursor to amino-acid alanine. Stereochemical pathways in 2-APN are explored using Global Reaction Route Mapping (GRRM) method employing high-level quantum-mechanical computations. Besides predicting the conventional mechanism for chiral inversion that proceeds through an achiral intermediate, a counterintuitive flipping mechanism is revealed for 2-APN through chiral intermediates explored using the GRRM. The feasibility of the proposed stereochemical pathways, in terms of the Gibbs free-energy change, is analyzed at the temperature conditions akin to the interstellar medium. Notably, the stereoinversion in 2-APN is observed to be more feasible than the dissociation of 2-APN and intermediates involved along the stereochemical pathways, and the flipping barrier is observed to be as low as 3.68 kJ/mol along one of the pathways. The pathways proposed for the inversion of chirality in 2-APN may provide significant insight into the extraterrestrial origin of life

  15. Third meeting of the ITPA Co-ordinating Committee

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, D.J.; Shimada, M.

    2003-01-01

    The third meeting of the ITPA (International Tokamak Physics Activity) coordinating committee (CC), held on 24-25 October 2002 at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching. Dr. D.Campbell, Chair of the CC, noted the significant enhancement of the physics basis for burning plasma experiments, which had been achieved via the ITPA collaboration. He reported about successful assessment the ITER diagnostics requirements through ITPA Topical Groups. Dr. Aymar, ITER international team leader, summarized the status of ITER. The Topical Group chairs reported on the most significant recent developments in their areas of responsibility

  16. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  17. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Arfaoui Mongi; Ben Rejeb Aymen

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We als...

  18. The determinants of exchange rates and the movements of EUR/RON exchange rate via non-linear stochastic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrică Andreea-Cristina

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling exchange rate volatility became an important topic for research debate starting with 1973, when many countries switched to floating exchange rate system. In this paper, we focus on the EUR/RON exchange rate both as an economic measure and present the implied economic links, and also as a financial investment and analyze its movements and fluctuations through two volatility stochastic processes: the Standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (GARCH and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (EGARCH. The objective of the conditional variance processes is to capture dependency in the return series of the EUR/RON exchange rate. On this account, analyzing exchange rates could be seen as the input for economic decisions regarding Romanian macroeconomics - the exchange rates being influenced by many factors such as: interest rates, inflation, trading relationships with other countries (imports and exports, or investments - portfolio optimization, risk management, asset pricing. Therefore, we talk about political stability and economic performance of a country that represents a link between the two types of inputs mentioned above and influences both the macroeconomics and the investments. Based on time-varying volatility, we examine implied volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using the standard GARCH model and the asymmetric EGARCH model, whose parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method and the error terms follow two distributions (Normal and Student’s t. The empirical results show EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 and Student’s t error terms distribution performs better than all the estimated standard GARCH models (GARCH(1,1, GARCH(1,2, GARCH(2,1 and GARCH(2,2. This conclusion is supported by the major advantage of the EGARCH model compared to the GARCH model which consists in allowing good and bad news having different impact on the

  19. Formation of Methylamine and Ethylamine in Extraterrestrial Ices and Their Role as Fundamental Building Blocks of Proteinogenic α -amino Acids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Förstel, Marko; Bergantini, Alexandre; Maksyutenko, Pavlo; Góbi, Sándor; Kaiser, Ralf I., E-mail: ralfk@hawaii.edu [W. M. Keck Research Laboratory in Astrochemistry, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, HI, 96822 (United States)

    2017-08-10

    The –CH–NH{sub 2} moiety represents the fundamental building block of all proteinogenic amino acids, with the cyclic amino acid proline being a special case (–CH–NH– in proline). Exploiting a chemical retrosynthesis, we reveal that methylamine (CH{sub 3}NH{sub 2}) and/or ethylamine (CH{sub 3}CH{sub 2}NH{sub 2}) are essential precursors in the formation of each proteinogenic amino acid. In the present study we elucidate the abiotic formation of methylamine and ethylamine from ammonia (NH{sub 3}) and methane (CH{sub 4}) ices exposed to secondary electrons generated by energetic cosmic radiation in cometary and interstellar model ices. Our experiments show that methylamine and ethylamine are crucial reaction products in irradiated ices composed of ammonia and methane. Using isotopic substitution studies we further obtain valuable information on the specific reaction pathways toward methylamine. The very recent identification of methylamine and ethylamine together with glycine in the coma of 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko underlines their potential to the extraterrestrial formation of amino acids.

  20. Polish and European SST Assets: the Solaris-Panoptes Global Network of Robotic Telescopes and the Borowiec Satellite Laser Ranging System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konacki, M.; Lejba, P.; Sybilski, P.; Pawłaszek, R.; Kozłowski, S.; Suchodolski, T.; Litwicki, M.; Kolb, U.; Burwitz, V.; Baader, J.; Groot, P.; Bloemen, S.; Ratajczak, M.; Helminiak, K.; Borek, R.; Chodosiewicz, P.

    2016-09-01

    We present the assets of the Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Space Research Center (both of the Polish Academy of Sciences), two Polish companies Sybilla Technologies, Cillium Engineering and a non-profit research foundation Baltic Institute of Technology. These assets are enhanced by telescopes belonging to The Open University (UK), the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics and in the future the Radboud University. They consist of the Solaris-Panoptes global network of optical robotic telescopes and the satellite laser ranging station in Borowiec, Poland. These assets will contribute to the Polish and European Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) program. The Solaris component is composed of four autonomous observatories in the Southern Hemisphere. Solaris nodes are located at the South African Astronomical Observatory (Solaris-1 and Solaris-2), Siding Spring Observatory, Australia (Solaris-3) and Complejo Astronomico El Leoncito, Argentina (Solaris-4). They are equipped with 0.5-m telescopes on ASA DDM-160 direct drive mounts, Andor iKon-L cameras and housed in 3.5-m Baader Planetarium (BP) clamshell domes. The Panoptes component is a network of telescopes operated by software from Sybilla Technologies. It currently consists of 4 telescopes at three locations, all on GM4000 mounts. One 0.36-m (Panoptes-COAST, STL- 1001E camera, 3.5 BP clamshell dome) and one 0.43-m (Panoptes-PIRATE, FLI 16803 camera, 4.5-m BP clamshell dome, with planned exchange to 0.63-m) telescope are located at the Teide Observatory (Tenerfie, Canary Islands), one 0.6-m (Panoptes-COG, SBIG STX 16803 camera, 4.5-m BP clamshell dome) telescope in Garching, Germany and one 0.5-m (Panoptes-MAM, FLI 16803 camera, 4.5-m BP slit dome) in Mammendorf, Germany. Panoptes-COAST and Panoptes-PIRATE are owned by The Open University (UK). Panoptes-COG is owned by the Max Planck Institute

  1. How to change West-African minds in order to increase general ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EB

    ), Garches, 92380. Garches, France. 2. Laboratory of Medical Ethics and Forensic Medicine, University of Paris 5, 75006 Paris, France. 3. Department of Pathology, University Hospital, Parakou, Benin. African Health Sciences 2013; 13(2): 526 ...

  2. Report on the combined meeting of the core confinement and internal transport barrier expert group, confinement database and modeling expert group and edge pedestal expert group, 12-16 April 1999, Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janeschitz, G.; Connor, J.W.; Cordey, G.; Kardaun, O.; Mukhovatov, V.; Stambaugh, R.; Ryter, F.; Wakatani, M.

    1999-01-01

    This contribution to the ITER EDA Newsletter reports on the combined meeting of the core confinement and internal transport barrier expert group, confinement database and modeling expert group and edge pedestal expert group in Garching, Germany. This is the first workshop of its kind after the re-organisation of the expert groups. The new scheme of the meetings, namely to permit more interaction between groups by arranging them at the same time and location turned out to be very successful. The main issues discussed were for the Confinement Database: merging of edge pedestal and confinement data, improvement of the density- and magnetic shape parameters, addition of new dedicated threshold data, the effect of different divertors in JET; for the H-Mode Power Threshold Database: assembly of a new version of the database with about 650 time points from 10 tokamaks; for the 1-D Modelling Workshop: management of the database after the re-organisation of the Joint Central Team an ongoing efforts in plasma transport modelling; for the newly formed pedestal group: issues of the H-mode shear layer at the plasma edge. There was also an executive summary given of a recent USA workshop on internal transport barriers and regimes with weak or negative magnetic shear

  3. Effects of the Extraterrestrial Environment on Plants: Recommendations for Future Space Experiments for the MELiSSA Higher Plant Compartment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silje A. Wolff

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to logistical challenges, long-term human space exploration missions require a life support system capable of regenerating all the essentials for survival. Higher plants can be utilized to provide a continuous supply of fresh food, atmosphere revitalization, and clean water for humans. Plants can adapt to extreme environments on Earth, and model plants have been shown to grow and develop through a full life cycle in microgravity. However, more knowledge about the long term effects of the extraterrestrial environment on plant growth and development is necessary. The European Space Agency (ESA has developed the Micro-Ecological Life Support System Alternative (MELiSSA program to develop a closed regenerative life support system, based on micro-organisms and higher plant processes, with continuous recycling of resources. In this context, a literature review to analyze the impact of the space environments on higher plants, with focus on gravity levels, magnetic fields and radiation, has been performed. This communication presents a roadmap giving directions for future scientific activities within space plant cultivation. The roadmap aims to identify the research activities required before higher plants can be included in regenerative life support systems in space.

  4. The Extraterrestrial Materials Simulation Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, J. R.

    2001-01-01

    In contrast to fly-by and orbital missions, in situ missions face an incredible array of challenges in near-target navigation, landing site selection, descent, landing, science operations, sample collection and handling, drilling, anchoring, subsurface descent, communications, and contamination. The wide range of materials characteristics and environments threaten mission safety and success. For example, many physical properties are poorly characterized, including strength, composition, heterogeneity, phase change, texture, thermal properties, terrain features, atmospheric interaction, and stratigraphy. Examples of the range of materials properties include, for example: (1) Comets, with a possible compressive strength ranging from a light fluff to harder than concrete: 10(exp 2) to 10 (exp 8) Pa; (2) Europa, including a possible phase change at the surface, unknown strength and terrain roughness; and (3) Titan, with a completely unknown surface and possible liquid ocean. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  5. Microbial Growth in the Magnesium- Chloride - Sodium- Sulphate Ion System: Implications for Habitability in Terrestrial and Extraterrestrial Salts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loudon, C. M.; Aka, S.; Cockell, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    Icy moons in the outer solar system are key targets in the search for extra-terrestrial life as there is evidence that they harbour subsurface oceans. Observational evidence of icy moons such as Europa suggest that these likely brine oceans should be composed of chloride and sulphate salts. The effects of the ions that compose these salts on biology and how the interactions between them can create geochemical and geophysical barriers to life are poorly understood. Here we present an in depth study of four microorganisms grown in solutions with varying combinations of the magnesium- chloride- sodium- sulphate ions. We find that the ion composition of the brine solution can have a large effect on growth. Whilst the water activity must be permissible for growth we found that this alone could not predict the effects of the ions on growth, chaotropic effects and ion specific effects influenced by the specific physiology of organisms are also evident. For this reason we conclude that simply knowing which salts are present on icy moons is not sufficient information to determine their potential habitibility. A full sample of any brine ocean would need to be studied to fully determine the potential for biology on these outer solar system satellites.

  6. Sampling the Radio Transient Universe: Studies of Pulsars and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chennamangalam, Jayanth

    The transient radio universe is a relatively unexplored area of astronomy, offering a variety of phenomena, from solar and Jovian bursts, to flare stars, pulsars, and bursts of Galactic and potentially even cosmological origin. Among these, perhaps the most widely studied radio transients, pulsars are fast-spinning neutron stars that emit radio beams from their magnetic poles. In spite of over 40 years of research on pulsars, we have more questions than answers on these exotic compact objects, chief among them the nature of their emission mechanism. Nevertheless, the wealth of phenomena exhibited by pulsars make them one of the most useful astrophysical tools. With their high densities, pulsars are probes of the nature of ultra-dense matter. Characterized by their high timing stability, pulsars can be used to verify the predictions of general relativity, discover planets around them, study bodies in the solar system, and even serve as an interplanetary (and possibly some day, interstellar) navigation aid. Pulsars are also used to study the nature of the interstellar medium, much like a flashlight illuminating airborne dust in a dark room. Studies of pulsars in the Galactic center can help answer questions about the massive black hole in the region and the star formation history in its vicinity. Millisecond pulsars in globular clusters are long-lived tracers of their progenitors, low-mass X-ray binaries, and can be used to study the dynamical history of those clusters. Another source of interest in radio transient astronomy is the hitherto undetected engineered signal from extraterrestrial intelligence. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is an ongoing attempt at discovering the presence of technological life elsewhere in the Galaxy. In this work, I present my forays into two aspects of the study of the radio transient universe---pulsars and SETI. Firstly, I describe my work on the luminosity function and population size of pulsars in the globular

  7. The extreme environments and their microbes as models for extraterrestrial life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seckbach, J.; Oren, A.; Chela-Flores, J.

    2008-09-01

    Life exists almost everywhere on Earth. Presence of liquid water is a prerequisite for life (Oren, 2008). Living organisms are not only found in `normal' habitats (from the anthropocentric view). Many types, especially of microorganisms, not only tolerate harsh environmental conditions, but even thive in them. Such organisms that resist very harsh physical and chemical conditions in their habitats are termed `extremophiles'. Some extremophilic microorganisms are able to overcome more than one type of extreme conditions in their environment. For example, some `polyextremophiles' grow under hundreds of atmospheres of hydrostatic pressure (barophiles) and at very low, or alternatively at very high temperatures. In many hot springs there are acido-thermophiles that tolerate elevated temperatures and very low pH levels (e.g. the Cyanidium caldarium group, see Seckbach 1994). Members of Cyanidium are able to thrive in pure CO2, a condition not tolerated by most algae (Seckbach et al., 1970). Some thermophilic Archaea grow at temperatures up to 1130C and possibly even higher. In the Arctic and Antarctic regions and in the permafrost region in Siberia there are cold-loving microorganisms (psychrophiles) which are able to grow at -200C. Many types of Bacteria and Archaea tolerate extreme dryness, and spores of Bacillus and relatives that have been encapsulated within salt crystals may have survived in a dormant state for thousands and even millions of years, and still can be revived today. Other extremophiles tolerate salt concentrations up to saturation. Halophilic microorganisms such as found in the Dead Sea or in the Great Salt Lake have developed different strategies to cope with the high osmotic pressure of their environment. Some (e.g. the unicellular green alga Dunaliella salina) balance the salts in their medium by accumulating organic compounds such as glycerol. Others (halophilic Archaea of the order Halobacteriales, as well as a few representatives of the

  8. ITER ITA newsletter. No. 1, February 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-04-01

    This first issue of ITER ITA (ITER transitional Arrangements) newsletter contains concise information about ITER related meetings including eighth ITER Negotiations meeting, held on 18-19 February, 2003 in St. Petersburg, Russia, first meeting of the ITER preparatory committee, held on 17 February, 2003 in St. Petersburg, Russia and the third meeting of the ITPA (International Tokamak Physics Activity) coordinating committee, held on 24-25 October 2002 at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching

  9. Technology Of Controlled-Environment Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, David L.; Bates, Maynard E.

    1995-01-01

    Report discusses controlled-environment agriculture (CEA) for commercial production of organisms, whether plants or animals. Practiced in greenhouses to produce food on nonarable lands. Describes conceptual regenerative system that incorporates biological, physical, and chemical processes to support humans in extraterrestrial environments.

  10. The impact of the cosmos on the human race.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, A. E.

    1986-11-01

    The proposition is discussed that throughout its history, the development of the human race, physically, mentally and spiritually, has been shaped by the cosmos, never more so than at the present time when it engages in a search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

  11. Astrobiology and the Possibility of Life on Earth and Elsewhere…

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cottin, Hervé; Kotler, Julia Michelle; Bartik, Kristin; Cleaves, H. James; Cockell, Charles S.; de Vera, Jean Pierre P; Ehrenfreund, Pascale; Leuko, Stefan; Ten Kate, Inge Loes|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/292012217; Martins, Zita; Pascal, Robert; Quinn, Richard; Rettberg, Petra; Westall, Frances

    Astrobiology is an interdisciplinary scientific field not only focused on the search of extraterrestrial life, but also on deciphering the key environmental parameters that have enabled the emergence of life on Earth. Understanding these physical and chemical parameters is fundamental knowledge

  12. The predictive content of CBOE crude oil volatility index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hongtao; Liu, Li; Li, Xiaolei

    2018-02-01

    Volatility forecasting is an important issue in the area of econophysics. The information content of implied volatility for financial return volatility has been well documented in the literature but very few studies focus on oil volatility. In this paper, we show that the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) has predictive ability for spot volatility of WTI and Brent oil returns, from both in-sample and out-of-sample perspectives. Including OVX-based implied volatility in GARCH-type volatility models can improve forecasting accuracy most of time. The predictability from OVX to spot volatility is also found for longer forecasting horizons of 5 days and 20 days. The simple GARCH(1,1) and fractionally integrated GARCH with OVX performs significantly better than the other OVX models and all 6 univariate GARCH-type models without OVX. Robustness test results suggest that OVX provides different information from as short-term interest rate.

  13. The Case for the Younger Dryas Extraterrestrial Impact Event: Mammoth, Megafauna and Clovis Extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firestone, Richard B.

    2009-01-01

    The onset of >1000 years of Younger Dryas cooling, broad-scale extinctions, and the disappearance of the Clovis culture in North America simultaneously occurred 12,900 years ago followed immediately by the appearance of a carbon-rich black layer at many locations. In situ bones of extinct megafauna and Clovis tools occur only beneath this black layer and not within or above it. At the base of the black mat at 9 Clovis-age sites in North America and a site in Belgium numerous extraterrestrial impact markers were found including magnetic grains highly enriched in iridium, magnetic microspherules, vesicular carbon spherules enriched in cubic, hexagonal, and n-type nanodiamonds, glass-like carbon containing Fullerenes and nanodiamonds, charcoal, soot, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The same impact markers were found mixed throughout the sediments of 15 Carolina Bays, elliptical depressions along the Atlantic coast, whose parallel major axes point towards either the Great Lakes or Hudson Bay. The magnetic grains and spherules have an unusual Fe/Ti composition similar to lunar Procellarum KREEP Terrane and the organic constituents are enriched in 14C leading to radiocarbon dates often well into the future. These characteristics are inconsistent with known meteorites and suggest that the impact was by a previous unobserved, possibly extrasolar body. The concentration of impact markers peaks near the Great Lakes and their unusually high water content suggests that a 4.6 km-wide comet fragmented and exploded over the Laurentide Ice Sheet creating numerous craters that now persist at the bottom of the Great Lakes. The coincidence of this impact, the onset of Younger Dryas cooling, extinction of the megafauna, and the appearance of a black mat strongly suggests that all these events are directly related. These results have unleashed an avalanche of controversy which I will address in this paper.

  14. OAST Space Theme Workshop. Volume 2: Theme summary. 3: Search for extraterrestrial intelligence (no. 9). A: Theme statement. B. 26 April 1976 presentation. C. Summary. D. Newer initiatives (form 4). E. Initiative actions (form 5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    Preliminary (1977-1983), intermediate (1982-1988), and long term (1989+) phases of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) program are examined as well as the benefits to be derived in radioastronomy and the problems to be surmounted in radio frequency interference. The priorities, intrinsic value, criteria, and strategy for the search are discussed for both terrestrial and lunar-based CYCLOPS and for a space SETI system located at lunar liberation point L4. New initiatives related to antenna independent technology, multichannel analyzers, and radio frequency interference shielding are listed. Projected SETI program costs are included.

  15. The Fiction of Full BEKK

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThe purpose of the paper is to show that univariate GARCH is not a special case of multivariate GARCH, specifically the Full BEKK model, except under parametric restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the random coefficient autoregressive coefficient matrix, provides the regularity

  16. Long Memory in STOCK Market Volatility: the International Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chunxia; Hu, Sen; Xia, Bingying; Wang, Rui

    2012-08-01

    It is still a hot topic to catch the auto-dependence behavior of volatility. Here, based on the measurement of average volatility, under different observation window size, we investigated the dependence of successive volatility of several main stock indices and their simulated GARCH(1, 1) model, there were obvious linear auto-dependence in the logarithm of volatility under a small observation window size and nonlinear auto-dependence under a big observation. After calculating the correlation and mutual information of the logarithm of volatility for Dow Jones Industrial Average during different periods, we find that some influential events can change the correlation structure and the volatilities of different periods have distinct influence on that of the remote future. Besides, GARCH model could produce similar behavior of dependence as real data and long memory property. But our analyses show that the auto-dependence of volatility in GARCH is different from that in real data, and the long memory is undervalued by GARCH.

  17. EVALUATION OF MICROBIAL SURVIVAL IN EXTRATERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betül BULUÇ

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the space environments where microbial terrestrial life could form and evolve in, were evaluted with the base of the physical and chemical properties. In addition, Earthial microbial life formation conditions in the interstellar medium and the other planets are investigated and the survival of microorganisms in the space environments are questioned. As a result, considering the aspects of terrestrial microbial life, we suggest that the space environment and other planets could not be a habitat for Earthial microorganisms.

  18. Testing constancy of unconditional variance in volatility models by misspecification and specification tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    The topic of this paper is testing the hypothesis of constant unconditional variance in GARCH models against the alternative that the unconditional variance changes deterministically over time. Tests of this hypothesis have previously been performed as misspecification tests after fitting a GARCH...... models. An application to exchange rate returns is included....

  19. Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim

    The literature on modeling and forecasting time-varying volatility is ripe with acronyms and abbreviations used to describe the many different parametric models that have been put forth since the original linear ARCH model introduced in the seminal Nobel Prize winning paper by Engle (1982......).  The present paper provides an easy-to-use encyclopedic reference guide to this long list of ARCH acronyms.  In addition to the acronyms associated with specific parametric models, I have also included descriptions of various abbreviations associated with more general statistical procedures and ideas...

  20. A Statistical Approach to Illustrate the Challenge of Astrobiology for Public Outreach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Foucher

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we attempt to illustrate the competition that constitutes the main challenge of astrobiology, namely the competition between the probability of extraterrestrial life and its detectability. To illustrate this fact, we propose a simple statistical approach based on our knowledge of the Universe and the Milky Way, the Solar System, and the evolution of life on Earth permitting us to obtain the order of magnitude of the distance between Earth and bodies inhabited by more or less evolved past or present life forms, and the consequences of this probability for the detection of associated biosignatures. We thus show that the probability of the existence of evolved extraterrestrial forms of life increases with distance from the Earth while, at the same time, the number of detectable biosignatures decreases due to technical and physical limitations. This approach allows us to easily explain to the general public why it is very improbable to detect a signal of extraterrestrial intelligence while it is justified to launch space probes dedicated to the search for microbial life in the Solar System.

  1. First principles based transport theory. Report on the IAEA technical committee meeting held at Kloster Seeon, Germany, 21-23 June 1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biskamp, D.; Nuehrenberg, J.; Diamond, P.H.; Garbet, X.; Lin, Z.; Rogers, R.N.

    2000-01-01

    This IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on plasma transport theory was organized jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Plasma Physics, Garching, and the IAEA, Vienna. It took place on 21-23 June 1999 in Kloster Seeon, Germany. The topics were: 1. Turbulent transport in the tokamak core plasma; 2. Turbulence suppression, shear amplification and transport bifurcation dynamics; 3. Turbulence transport in the tokamak edge plasma; 4. Global aspects of turbulent transport in tokamak plasmas; 5. Neoclassical transport, in particular in stellarators

  2. Conditionally-uniform Feasible Grid Search Algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We present and evaluate a numerical optimization method (together with an algorithm for choosing the starting values) pertinent to the constrained optimization problem arising in the estimation of the GARCH models with inequality constraints, in particular the Simplied Component GARCH Model...... (SCGARCH), together with algorithms for the objective function and analytical gradient computation for SCGARCH....

  3. Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Hang T.; Nabney, Ian T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their NMSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively. (author)

  4. A revolutionary lunar space transportation system architecture using extraterrestrial LOX-augmented NTR propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Stanley K.; Corban, Robert R.; Culver, Donald W.; Bulman, Melvin J.; McIlwain, Mel C.

    1994-08-01

    The concept of a liquid oxygen (LOX)-augmented nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) engine is introduced, and its potential for revolutionizing lunar space transportation system (LTS) performance using extraterrestrial 'lunar-derived' liquid oxygen (LUNOX) is outlined. The LOX-augmented NTR (LANTR) represents the marriage of conventional liquid hydrogen (LH2)-cooled NTR and airbreathing engine technologies. The large divergent section of the NTR nozzle functions as an 'afterburner' into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the NTR's choked sonic throat: 'scramjet propulsion in reverse.' By varying the oxygen-to-fuel mixture ratio (MR), the LANTR concept can provide variable thrust and specific impulse (Isp) capability with a LH2-cooled NTR operating at relatively constant power output. For example, at a MR = 3, the thrust per engine can be increased by a factor of 2.75 while the Isp decreases by only 30 percent. With this thrust augmentation option, smaller, 'easier to develop' NTR's become more acceptable from a mission performance standpoint (e.g., earth escape gravity losses are reduced and perigee propulsion requirements are eliminated). Hydrogen mass and volume is also reduced resulting in smaller space vehicles. An evolutionary NTR-based lunar architecture requiring only Shuttle C and/or 'in-line' shuttle-derived launch vehicles (SDV's) would operate initially in an 'expandable mode' with NTR lunar transfer vehicles (LTV's) delivering 80 percent more payload on piloted missions than their LOX/LH2 chemical propulsion counterparts. With the establishment of LUNOX production facilities on the lunar surface and 'fuel/oxidizer' depot in low lunar orbit (LLO), monopropellant NTR's would be outfitted with an oxygen propellant module, feed system, and afterburner nozzle for 'bipropellant' operation. The LANTR cislunar LTV now transitions to a reusable mode with smaller vehicle and payload doubling benefits on

  5. Annual report 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The departments of IPP Garching: High-Beta-Plasma, Tokamak, Computer Science, Acceleration, Stellarators, Theory, Surface Physics, and Technology, present their R + D activities in 1979. Also reported are the activities of the Central Technical Services, the organisational structure of IPP, the managing board, administration, general services, and public relations activities. The report is supplemented by a list of publications and conference reports and a description of projects carried out at the Universities of Stuttgart, Muenchen and Frankfurt/Main on behalf of the IPP. (GG) [de

  6. Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Chiao-Yi; Lai, Jing-Yi; Chuang, I-Yuan

    2010-01-01

    This article undertakes eight hedging models (Regression, MD-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, ECM-MD, ECM-BEKK, ECM-CCC, and state space models) to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets. Different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern (termed 'bull markets') than in a decreasing pattern (termed 'bear markets') for crude oil and gasoline futures. That is, findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature. Out-of-sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts, implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly. (author)

  7. Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tansuchat, Roengchai

    2010-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

  8. Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Chia-Lin [Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, National Chung Hsing University Taichung 402 (China); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Tansuchat, Roengchai [Faculty of Economics, Maejo University (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

  9. The concept of the new structure powder diffractometer (SPODI) at the FRM-II in Garching

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gilles, R.; Krimmer, B.; Šaroun, Jan; Boysen, H.; Fuess, H.

    378-3, - (2001), s. 282-287 ISSN 0255-5476 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1048901 Keywords : Monte Carlo * neutron optics Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 0.461, year: 2001

  10. The Pan-STARRS1 Survey Data Release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Kenneth C.; Pan-STARRS Team

    2017-01-01

    The first Pan-STARRS1 Science Mission is complete and an initial Data Release 1, or DR1, including a database of measured attributes, stacked images, and metadata of the 3PI Survey, will be available from the STScI MAST archive. This release will contain all stationary objects with mean and stack photometry registered on the GAIA astrometric frame.The characteristics of the Pan-STARRS1 Surveys will be presented, including image quality, depth, cadence, and coverage. Measured attributes include PSF model magnitudes, aperture magnitudes, Kron Magnitudes, radial moments, Petrosian magnitudes, DeVaucoulers, Exponential, and Sersic magnitudes for extended objects. Images include total intensity, variance, and masks.An overview of both DR1 and the second data release DR2, to follow in the spring of 2017, will be presented. DR2 will add all time domain data and individual warped images. We will also report on the status of the Pan-STARRS2 Observatory and ongoing science with Pan-STARRS. The science from the PS1 surveys has included results in many t fields of astronomy from Near Earth Objects to cosmology.The Pan-STARRS1 Surveys have been made possible through contributions of the Institute for Astronomy of the University of Hawaii; the Pan-STARRS Project Office; the Max-Planck Society and its participating institutes: the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Heidelberg and the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Garching; The Johns Hopkins University; Durham University; the University of Edinburgh; Queen's University Belfast; the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network Incorporated; the National Central University of Taiwan; the Space Telescope Science Institute; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grants No. NNX08AR22G, NNX12AR65G, NNX14AM74G issued through the Planetary Science Division of the NASA Science Mission Directorate; the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AST

  11. People and things. CERN Courier Nov 1985, v. 25(9)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1985-11-15

    The article reports on achievements of various people, staff changes and position opportunities within the CERN organization and contains news updates on upcoming or past events. The European Committee for Future Accelerators (ECFA) meets in plenary session twice a year. At the meeting at CERN earlier this year, ECFA Chariman Jean Sacton described the trend towards even greater internationalization of partide physics research and how arrangement have been completed to allow the exchange of observers between meetings of Plenary ECFA and the US High Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP). After the success of the ESO (European Southern Observatory) CERN Symposium on Cosmology, Astronomy and Fundamental Physics, held at CERN in November 1983, the second Symposium is to be held at ESO, Garching bei Munchen, West Germany, from 17 to 21 March next year.

  12. People and things. CERN Courier Nov 1985, v. 25(9)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1985-01-01

    The article reports on achievements of various people, staff changes and position opportunities within the CERN organization and contains news updates on upcoming or past events. The European Committee for Future Accelerators (ECFA) meets in plenary session twice a year. At the meeting at CERN earlier this year, ECFA Chariman Jean Sacton described the trend towards even greater internationalization of partide physics research and how arrangement have been completed to allow the exchange of observers between meetings of Plenary ECFA and the US High Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP). After the success of the ESO (European Southern Observatory) CERN Symposium on Cosmology, Astronomy and Fundamental Physics, held at CERN in November 1983, the second Symposium is to be held at ESO, Garching bei Munchen, West Germany, from 17 to 21 March next year

  13. "Symposium" by Richard Dawkins, Gerard 't Hooft, Alain Connes

    CERN Multimedia

    Maximilien Brice

    2004-01-01

    Richard Dawkins will speak on biology, Gerard ‘t Hooft will focus on physics, and Alain Connes will discuss mathematics. CERN scientists probe ever-deeper levels of matter and their interactions, but can we say that the patterns they see are truly fundamental? Does the universe obey the same laws throughout? Since mathematical constructions can be true in the absence of any relation to the physical world, is mathematics more fundamental than physics? Extraterrestrial life would probably look much different from that on Earth, but natural selection still be fundamental to their evolution?

  14. Organization of the ITER Co-ordinated Technical Activities International Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    At its meeting in Toronto on 7 November 2001, the ITER Co-ordinated Technical Activities (CTA) project board took note of the organizational arrangements for the CTA International Team at the Garching and Naka joint work sites. The organization chart of the team remains almost unchanged from that of the ITER Engineering Design Activities (EDA). However, there is no special division responsible for plasma and field control. Activities in plasma control will be taken over by the Physics Unit. This newsletter also includes the ITER CTA International Team structure

  15. Study of solar radiation prediction and modeling of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Yan, Dong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We investigate relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables. • A strong relationship exists between solar radiation and sunshine duration. • Daily global radiation can be estimated accurately with ARMAX–GARCH models. • MGARCH model was applied to investigate time-varying relationships. - Abstract: The traditional approaches that employ the correlations between solar radiation and other measured meteorological variables are commonly utilized in studies. It is important to investigate the time-varying relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation to determine which variables have the strongest correlations with solar radiation. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX–GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time-series approaches were applied to investigate the associations between solar radiation and several meteorological variables. For these investigations, the long-term daily global solar radiation series measured at three stations from January 1, 2004 until December 31, 2007 were used in this study. Stronger relationships were observed to exist between global solar radiation and sunshine duration than between solar radiation and temperature difference. The results show that 82–88% of the temporal variations of the global solar radiation were captured by the sunshine-duration-based ARMAX–GARCH models and 55–68% of daily variations were captured by the temperature-difference-based ARMAX–GARCH models. The advantages of the ARMAX–GARCH models were also confirmed by comparison of Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and neutral network (ANN) models in the estimation of daily global solar radiation. The strong heteroscedastic persistency of the global solar radiation series was revealed by the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto

  16. Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Chiao-Yi [Department of Money and Banking, National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, No. 2, Jhuoyue Rd., Nanzih, Kaohsiung City, 811 (China); Lai, Jing-Yi; Chuang, I-Yuan [Department of Finance, National Chung-Cheng University, No. 168, University Rd., Ming-Hsiung, Chia-Yi 62102. (China)

    2010-03-15

    This article undertakes eight hedging models (Regression, MD-GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, CCC-GARCH, ECM-MD, ECM-BEKK, ECM-CCC, and state space models) to investigate hedging effectiveness of different price scenarios in energy futures markets. Different models have systematically evidenced that hedging effectiveness is higher in an increasing pattern (termed 'bull markets') than in a decreasing pattern (termed 'bear markets') for crude oil and gasoline futures. That is, findings show asymmetric hedging performance between upward and downward price trends consistently from the most popular hedging models in literature. Out-of-sample examination also suggests that the ranking of hedging effectiveness of different hedging models is not parallel in different price patterns across futures contracts, implying that investors should adjust their hedging strategies accordingly. (author)

  17. Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Christensen, Hannah M.; Juricke, Stephan; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, Tim N.

    2017-03-01

    The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850-2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate - specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

  18. Extraterrestrial organic chemistry: from the interstellar medium to the origins of life. Part 2: complex organic chemistry in the environment of planets and satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raulin, F; Kobayashi, K

    2001-01-01

    During COSPAR'00 in Warsaw, Poland, in the frame of Sub-Commission F.3 events (Planetary Biology and Origins of Life), part of COSPAR Commission F (Life Sciences as Related to Space), and Commission B events (Space Studies of the Earth-Moon System, Planets, and Small Bodies of the Solar System) a large joint symposium (F.3.4/B0.8) was held on extraterrestrial organic chemistry. Part 2 of this symposium was devoted to complex organic chemistry in the environment of planets and satellites. The aim of this event was to cover and review new data which have been recently obtained and to give new insights on data which are expected in the near future to increase our knowledge of the complex organic chemistry occurring in several planets and satellites of the Solar System, outside the earth, and their implications for exobiology and life in the universe. The event was composed of two main parts. The first part was mainly devoted to the inner planets and Europa and the search for signatures of life or organics in those environments. The second part was related to the study of the outer solar system.

  19. Solar Observations on Magneto-Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-31

    Technical Library National Solar Observatory Sunspot, NM 88349 Karl - Schwarzschild -Strasse 1 8046 Garching bei Mundhen Solar Observations On Magneto...Schmidt, Hermann-Ulrich Schmidt, Hans-Christoph Thomas (eds.) Max-Planck-Institut fir Physik und Astrophysik Institut fiur Astrophysik Karl ... Schwarzschild -St-. 1 D-8046 Garching, FklG 14TIS CRiA.&l DTIC TA. U~Jar,iou8:ed B ......... ... Distribution I -- Availability COcý----- Avail and or Dist special

  20. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  1. International Conference on Hyperbolic Problems Theory, Numerics, Applications Held in Stony Brook, New York on 13-17 June 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-07-25

    Astrophysik are investigated numerically. These collisions do not seem to Karl - Schwarzschild -str., 1, D-85470 Garching, Germany be elastic. On the other hand...Astrophysak, Departamento de Matemdtsca Aplscada y Astronomia Karl -Schwaarzschild-Str. i Universadad de Valencia 85740 Garching bes Munchen. Germany "E...the R-W metric to the empty space Schwarzschild metric, and since in this cae mass and momentum cannot cross the interface, (which in this case models

  2. Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the ãth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GA...... and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates. Udgivelsesdato: MAY...

  3. Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Flavin, Thomas; Wickens, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    We develop a tactical asset allocation strategy that incorporates the effects of macroeconomic variables. The joint distribution of financial asset returns and the macroeconomic variables is modelled using a VAR with a multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) error structure. As a result, the portfolio frontier is time varying and subject to contagion from the macroeconomic variable. Optimal asset allocation requires that this be taken into account. We illustrate how to do this using three ri...

  4. Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Prasad, Arti

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)

  5. Forecasting volatility in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets.

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses the forecasting performance of historical volatility models and GARCH-class models of Shenzhen component index, Shanghai composite index and Hang Seng index at weekly and daily frequency under both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Under symmetric loss functions exclude Theil-U and HR, results suggest that historical volatility models provide a much better forecast than GARCH-class models both in weekly and daily frequency. Under asymmetric loss functions historical...

  6. Capturing Option Anomalies with a Variance-Dependent Pricing Kernel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Heston, Steven; Jacobs, Kris

    2013-01-01

    We develop a GARCH option model with a new pricing kernel allowing for a variance premium. While the pricing kernel is monotonic in the stock return and in variance, its projection onto the stock return is nonmonotonic. A negative variance premium makes it U shaped. We present new semiparametric...... evidence to confirm this U-shaped relationship between the risk-neutral and physical probability densities. The new pricing kernel substantially improves our ability to reconcile the time-series properties of stock returns with the cross-section of option prices. It provides a unified explanation...... for the implied volatility puzzle, the overreaction of long-term options to changes in short-term variance, and the fat tails of the risk-neutral return distribution relative to the physical distribution....

  7. Que reste-t-il à découvrir?

    CERN Multimedia

    Bonneau, Cécile; Grousson, Mathieu; Pajot, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    What is the nature of the black matter? And the one of the dark energy? and antimatter? Extraterrestrial life? All these questions, and some others, put today the physicians at the challenge. Because it's the last enigma of the Universe and the matter. But also because they threaten the mots fundamental certainties of the physics. Should we thus talk of crisis? (13 pages)

  8. Out-of-sample Forecasting Performance of Won/Dollar Exchange Rate Return Volatility Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility models using daily exchange rate for the KRW/USD during the period from 1992 to 2008. For various forecasting horizons, historical volatility models with a long memory tend to make more accurate forecasts. Especially, we carefully observe the difference between the EWMA and the GARCH(1,1 model. Our empirical finding that the GARCH model puts too much weight on recent observations relative to those in the past is consistent with prior evidence showing that asset market volatility has a long memory, such as Ding and Granger (1996. The forecasting model with the lowest MSFE and VaR forecast error among the models we consider is the EWMA model in which the forecast volatility for the coming period is a weighted average of recent squared return with exponentially declining weights. In terms of forecast accuracy, it clearly dominates the widely accepted GARCH and rolling window GARCH models. We also present a multiple comparison of the out-of-sample forecasting performance of volatility using the stationary bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1994. We find that the White's reality check for the GARCH(1,1 expanding window model and the FIGARCH(1,1 expanding window model clearly reject the null hypothesis and there exists a better model than the two benchmark models. On the other hand, when the EWMA model is the benchmark, the White's for all forecasting horizons are very high, which indicates the null hypothesis may not be rejected. The Hansen's report the same results. The GARCH(1,1 expanding window model and the FIGARCH(1,1 expanding window model are dominated by the best competing model in most of the forecasting horizons. In contrast, the RiskMetrics model seems to be the most preferred. We also consider combining the forecasts generated by averaging the six raw forecasts and a trimmed set of forecasts which calculate the mean of the four forecasts after disregarding the highest and

  9. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 4, no.12

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-12-01

    This issue of the ITER EDA (Engineering Design Activities) Newsletter contains a report on the ninth ITER council meeting held December 12 - 13, 1995 in Garching near Munich, Germany (by Dr. E. Canobbio), a report on the status of the ITER EDA (by Dr. R. Aymar, ITER Director) and a report on the ninth meeting of the ITER Technical Advisory Committee (by Professor P. Rutherford, TAC Chair) held 27 - 29 November 1995, in Garching near Munich, Germany

  10. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Stock Market of the Czech Republic and Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Titizov, Toško

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibit...

  11. Analyse Risk-Return Paradox: Evidence from Electricity Sector of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Naqi Shah, Sadia; Qayyum, Abdul

    2016-01-01

    This study analyse risk return relationship of the electricity companies of Pakistan by using the log return series of these electricity companies. Financial time series data have the property of autoregressive heteroscedasticity so move towards the GARCH family test. As the study want to analyse the risk return relationship so, GARCH-M Model of Engel et al (1987) is used, who empirically found relationship between risk and return. Results show that risk return in case of Pakistan electricity...

  12. Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years ago that contributed to megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firestone, R.B.; West, A.; Kennett, J.P.; Becker, L.; Bunch, T.E.; Revay, Z.S.; Schultz, P.H.; Belgya, T.; Kennett, D.J.; Erlandson, J.M.; Dickenson, O.J.; Goodyear, A.C.; Harris, R.S.; Howard, G.A.; Kloosterman, J.B.; Lechler, P.; Mayewski, P.A.; Montgomery, J.; Porede, R.; Darrah, T.; Que Hee, S.S.; Smith, A.R.; Stich, A.; Topping, W.; Wittke, J.H.; Wolbach, W.S.

    2007-01-01

    A carbon-rich black layer, dating to ∼12.9 ka, has been previously identified at ∼50 Clovis-age sites across North America and appears contemporaneous with the abrupt onset of Younger Dryas (YD) cooling. The in situ bones of extinct Pleistocene megafauna and Clovistool assemblages occur below this black layer but not within or above it. Causes for the extinctions, the YD cooling, and the termination of Clovisculture have long been controversial. In this paper, we provide evidence for an extraterrestrial (ET) impact event at ?12.9 ka, which, we hypothesize, caused abrupt environmental changes that contributed to YD cooling, major ecological reorganization, broad-scale extinctions, and rapid human behavioral shifts at the end of the Clovis Period. Clovis-age sites in North American are overlain by a thin, discrete layer with varying peak abundances of: (1) magnetic grains with iridium, (2) magnetic microspherules (3) charcoal, (4) soot, (5) carbon spherules, (6) glass-like carbon, and (7) fullerenes with ET helium, all of which are evidence for an ET impact and associated biomass burning at ∼12.9 ka.This layer also extends throughout at least fifteen Carolina Bays, which are unique, elliptical wetlands, oriented to the northwest across the Atlantic Coastal Plain. We propose that one or more large, low-density ET objects exploded over northern North America, partially destabilizing the Laurentide Ice Sheet and triggering YD cooling. The shock wave, thermal pulse, and event-related environmental effects (e.g., extensive biomass burning, food limitations) contributed to the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions and adaptive shifts among PaleoAmericans in North America

  13. VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL MARKETS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Panagiotou

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the existence and magnitude of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50% of olive oil exports worldwide. In order to measure the degree of volatility transmission between these countries we estimate a vector error correction model along with the BEKK parameterization of a Multivariate Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH model. The empirical results reveal the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects suggesting this way the existence of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. ARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Spain and Italy. GARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Greece and Italy.

  14. MHD equilibrium methods for ITER [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor] PF [poloidal field] coil design and systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strickler, D.J.; Galambos, J.D.; Peng, Y.K.M.

    1989-03-01

    Two versions of the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC) free-boundary equilibrium code designed to computer the poloidal field (PF) coil current distribution of elongated, magnetically limited tokamak plasmas are demonstrated and applied to the systems analysis of the impact of plasma elongation on the design point of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). These notes were presented at the ITER Specialists' Meeting on the PF Coil System and Operational Scenario, held at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics in Garching, Federal Republic of Germany, May 24--27, 1988. 8 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs

  15. Flywheel for a 167 MVA surge power motor-generator set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mertens, H.

    1975-01-01

    Flywheels to be subjected to major speed fluctuations are designed on the basis of both the usual strength analysis and fracture mechanics considerations, and the testing and operating instructions have to allow for this. Appropriate test units are used to determine the fracture toughness of the material. Residual stresses are measured and extensive ultrasonic and magnetic particle tests performed to enable the permissible number of stress cycles to be predicted. The article deals with these problems by reference to the flywheel of a 167 MVA surge power motor-generator set for the Max Planck Insitute for Plasma Physics in Garching. (orig.) [de

  16. Modeling variations in the cedi/dollar exchange rate in Ghana: an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techie Quaicoe, Michael; Twenefour, Frank B K; Baah, Emmanuel M; Nortey, Ezekiel N N

    2015-01-01

    This research article aimed at modeling the variations in the dollar/cedi exchange rate. It examines the applicability of a range of ARCH/GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of the series. The variants considered include the ARMA, GARCH, IGARCH, EGARCH and M-GARCH specifications. The results show that the series was non stationary which resulted from the presence of a unit root in it. The ARMA (1, 1) was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean. From the Box-Ljung test statistics x-squared of 1476.338 with p value 0.00217 for squared returns and 16.918 with 0.0153 p values for squared residuals, the null hypothesis of no ARCH effect was rejected at 5% significance level indicating the presence of an ARCH effect in the series. ARMA (1, 1) + GARCH (1, 1) which has all parameters significant was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean with conditional variance, thus showing adequacy in describing the conditional mean with variance of the return series at 5% significant level. A 24 months forecast for the mean actual exchange rates and mean returns from January, 2013 to December, 2014 made also showed that the fitted model is appropriate for the data and a depreciating trend of the cedi against the dollar for forecasted period respectively.

  17. Physical and Chemical Study of Minerals and Rocks Containing Low-Z Compounds of Interest to Astrobiology and Origin of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Understanding the origins of Life requires a good understanding of the physics and chemistry of biogenic low-z elements H, C, N, O, P, S in terrestrial environments, on Mars, on extraterrestrial bodies such as meteorite parent bodies and comets, and in interstellar space. In this Proposal five Tasks form a coherent program aimed at elucidating various aspects of low-z element geo- and cosmochemistry with special reference to the origin of Life on Earth and to the search for life on Mars, extant or extinct. (i) Formation of organic molecules, in particular oxygenated H-C-0 molecules or precursors thereof of the composition H(x)C(y)O(z)(n-), inside the hard matrix of structurally dense magmatic minerals; (ii) Formation of organic molecules inside the soft matrix of amorphous and crystalline water ice; (iii) Preservation of organic molecules in cherts and other siliceous rocks formed in hot spring or submarine hydrothermal vent environments; (iv) The nature of the elusive Martian soil oxidant; and (v) Prototype development of an XRD instrument, using a new patented XRD camera concept that utilizes a Charge Coupled Device (CCD) as a camera and as a energy-dispersive analyzer.

  18. Numerical Simulations of Granular Physics in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballouz, Ronald

    2017-08-01

    Granular physics is a sub-discipline of physics that attempts to combine principles that have been developed for both solid-state physics and engineering (such as soil mechanics) with fluid dynamics in order to formulate a coherent theory for the description of granular materials, which are found in both terrestrial (e.g., earthquakes, landslides, and pharmaceuticals) and extra-terrestrial settings (e.g., asteroids surfaces, asteroid interiors, and planetary ring systems). In the case of our solar system, the growth of this sub-discipline has been key in helping to interpret the formation, structure, and evolution of both asteroids and planetary rings. It is difficult to develop a deterministic theory for granular materials due to the fact that granular systems are composed of a large number of elements that interact through a non-linear combination of various forces (mechanical, gravitational, and electrostatic, for example) leading to a high degree of stochasticity. Hence, we study these environments using an N-body code, pkdgrav, that is able to simulate the gravitational, collisional, and cohesive interactions of grains. Using pkdgrav, I have studied the size segregation on asteroid surfaces due to seismic shaking (the Brazil-nut effect), the interaction of the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample-return mission sampling head, TAGSAM, with the surface of the asteroid Bennu, the collisional disruptions of rubble-pile asteroids, and the formation of structure in Saturn's rings. In all of these scenarios, I have found that the evolution of a granular system depends sensitively on the intrinsic properties of the individual grains (size, shape, sand surface roughness). For example, through our simulations, we have been able to determine relationships between regolith properties and the amount of surface penetration a spacecraft achieves upon landing. Furthermore, we have demonstrated that this relationship also depends on the strength of the local gravity. By comparing our

  19. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel [Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 61300, Brno (Czech Republic); Bednářová, Petra [Institute of Technology and Business, Okružní 517/10, 370 01, České Budějovice (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

  20. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel; Bednářová, Petra

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches

  1. Hello Out There.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giberson, Karl; Brown, Laura

    1997-01-01

    Presents an activity that begins with a discussion that leads into the rationale behind the techniques used in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) program. Students decode a message intended for extraterrestrials and consider a number of topics related to the possible existence of extraterrestrials. (DDR)

  2. Modelling the Interior Structure of Enceladus Based on the 2014's Cassini Gravity Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubner, R-S; Leitner, J J; Firneis, M G; Hitzenberger, R

    2016-06-01

    We present a model for the internal structure of Saturn's moon Enceladus. This model allows us to estimate the physical conditions at the bottom of the satellite's potential subsurface water reservoir and to determine the radial distribution of pressure and gravity. This leads to a better understanding of the physical and chemical conditions at the water/rock boundary. This boundary is the most promising area on icy moons for astrobiological studies as it could serve as a potential habitat for extraterrestrial life similar to terrestrial microbes that inhabit rocky mounds on Earth's sea floors.

  3. Hedge Effectiveness in the Brazilian US Dollar Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Lima Gomes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, one could observe a very definite surge in dollar prices in Brazil. Many Brazilian Companies, especially those with large amounts of dollar denominated debt incurred substantial losses due to the strong and fast growth of the dollar. The subsequent dollar price collapse from 2002 to 2008 caused great losses to exporters. In the context of hedge being a form of protection against currency oscillations, this paper aimed to study its effectiveness using the dollar future market in the BM&FBovespa. Specifically, four alternatives for calculating the optimum hedge ratio were compared: a the so called naïve approach, where opposite positions are taken in the spot and future markets; b OLS – Ordinary Least Squares c symmetric bi-variate GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity; d asymmetric bi-variate GARCH. The results showed that both GARCH supported hedge ratios presented higher effectiveness when compared to OLS, with in turn surpassed the naïve one.

  4. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arfaoui Mongi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies. Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.

  5. Clustering of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Urso, Pierpaolo; Cappelli, Carmela; Di Lallo, Dario; Massari, Riccardo

    2013-05-01

    This paper addresses the topic of classifying financial time series in a fuzzy framework proposing two fuzzy clustering models both based on GARCH models. In general clustering of financial time series, due to their peculiar features, needs the definition of suitable distance measures. At this aim, the first fuzzy clustering model exploits the autoregressive representation of GARCH models and employs, in the framework of a partitioning around medoids algorithm, the classical autoregressive metric. The second fuzzy clustering model, also based on partitioning around medoids algorithm, uses the Caiado distance, a Mahalanobis-like distance, based on estimated GARCH parameters and covariances that takes into account the information about the volatility structure of time series. In order to illustrate the merits of the proposed fuzzy approaches an application to the problem of classifying 29 time series of Euro exchange rates against international currencies is presented and discussed, also comparing the fuzzy models with their crisp version.

  6. The cosmic gorilla effect or the problem of undetected non terrestrial intelligent signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. De la Torre, Gabriel; Garcia, Manuel A.

    2018-05-01

    This article points to a long lasting problem in space research and cosmology, the problem of undetected signs of non terrestrial life and civilizations. We intentionally avoid the term extraterrestrial as we consider other possibilities that may arise but not fall strictly within the extraterrestrial scope. We discuss the role of new physics including dark matter and string theory in the search for life and other non terrestrial intelligence. A new classification for non terrestrial civilizations with three types and five dimensions is also provided. We also explain how our own neurophysiology, psychology and consciousness can play a major role in this search of non terrestrial civilizations task and how they have been neglected up to this date. To test this, 137 adults were evaluated using the cognitive reflection test, an attention/awareness questionnaire and a visuospatial searching task with aerial view images to determine the presence of inattentional blindness.

  7. Neutrino physics with JUNO

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Fengpeng; An, Guangpeng; An, Qi; Antonelli, Vito; Baussan, Eric; Beacom, John; Bezrukov, Leonid; Blyth, Simon; Brugnera, Riccardo; Buizza Avanzini, Margherita; Busto, Jose; Cabrera, Anatael; Cai, Hao; Cai, Xiao; Cammi, Antonio; Cao, Guofu; Cao, Jun; Chang, Yun; Chen, Shaomin; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Yixue; Chiesa, Davide; Clemenza, Massimiliano; Clerbaux, Barbara; Conrad, Janet; D'Angelo, Davide; De Kerret, Hervé; Deng, Zhi; Deng, Ziyan; Ding, Yayun; Djurcic, Zelimir; Dornic, Damien; Dracos, Marcos; Drapier, Olivier; Dusini, Stefano; Dye, Stephen; Enqvist, Timo; Fan, Donghua; Fang, Jian; Favart, Laurent; Ford, Richard; Göger-Neff, Marianne; Gan, Haonan; Garfagnini, Alberto; Giammarchi, Marco; Gonchar, Maxim; Gong, Guanghua; Gong, Hui; Gonin, Michel; Grassi, Marco; Grewing, Christian; Guan, Mengyun; Guarino, Vic; Guo, Gang; Guo, Wanlei; Guo, Xin-Heng; Hagner, Caren; Han, Ran; He, Miao; Heng, Yuekun; Hsiung, Yee; Hu, Jun; Hu, Shouyang; Hu, Tao; Huang, Hanxiong; Huang, Xingtao; Huo, Lei; Ioannisian, Ara; Jeitler, Manfred; Ji, Xiangdong; Jiang, Xiaoshan; Jollet, Cécile; Kang, Li; Karagounis, Michael; Kazarian, Narine; Krumshteyn, Zinovy; Kruth, Andre; Kuusiniemi, Pasi; Lachenmaier, Tobias; Leitner, Rupert; Li, Chao; Li, Jiaxing; Li, Weidong; Li, Weiguo; Li, Xiaomei; Li, Xiaonan; Li, Yi; Li, Yufeng; Li, Zhi-Bing; Liang, Hao; Lin, Guey-Lin; Lin, Tao; Lin, Yen-Hsun; Ling, Jiajie; Lippi, Ivano; Liu, Dawei; Liu, Hongbang; Liu, Hu; Liu, Jianglai; Liu, Jianli; Liu, Jinchang; Liu, Qian; Liu, Shubin; Liu, Shulin; Lombardi, Paolo; Long, Yongbing; Lu, Haoqi; Lu, Jiashu; Lu, Jingbin; Lu, Junguang; Lubsandorzhiev, Bayarto; Ludhova, Livia; Luo, Shu; Lyashuk, Vladimir; Möllenberg, Randolph; Ma, Xubo; Mantovani, Fabio; Mao, Yajun; Mari, Stefano M.; McDonough, William F.; Meng, Guang; Meregaglia, Anselmo; Meroni, Emanuela; Mezzetto, Mauro; Miramonti, Lino; Mueller, Thomas; Naumov, Dmitry; Oberauer, Lothar; Ochoa-Ricoux, Juan Pedro; Olshevskiy, Alexander; Ortica, Fausto; Paoloni, Alessandro; Peng, Haiping; Peng, Jen-Chieh; Previtali, Ezio; Qi, Ming; Qian, Sen; Qian, Xin; Qian, Yongzhong; Qin, Zhonghua; Raffelt, Georg; Ranucci, Gioacchino; Ricci, Barbara; Robens, Markus; Romani, Aldo; Ruan, Xiangdong; Ruan, Xichao; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Shaevitz, Mike; Sinev, Valery; Sirignano, Chiara; Sisti, Monica; Smirnov, Oleg; Soiron, Michael; Stahl, Achim; Stanco, Luca; Steinmann, Jochen; Sun, Xilei; Sun, Yongjie; Taichenachev, Dmitriy; Tang, Jian; Tkachev, Igor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw; van Waasen, Stefan; Volpe, Cristina; Vorobel, Vit; Votano, Lucia; Wang, Chung-Hsiang; Wang, Guoli; Wang, Hao; Wang, Meng; Wang, Ruiguang; Wang, Siguang; Wang, Wei; Wang, Yi; Wang, Yi; Wang, Yifang; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Zheng; Wang, Zhigang; Wang, Zhimin; Wei, Wei; Wen, Liangjian; Wiebusch, Christopher; Wonsak, Björn; Wu, Qun; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Wurm, Michael; Xi, Yufei; Xia, Dongmei; Xie, Yuguang; Xing, Zhi-zhong; Xu, Jilei; Yan, Baojun; Yang, Changgen; Yang, Chaowen; Yang, Guang; Yang, Lei; Yang, Yifan; Yao, Yu; Yegin, Ugur; Yermia, Frédéric; You, Zhengyun; Yu, Boxiang; Yu, Chunxu; Yu, Zeyuan; Zavatarelli, Sandra; Zhan, Liang; Zhang, Chao; Zhang, Hong-Hao; Zhang, Jiawen; Zhang, Jingbo; Zhang, Qingmin; Zhang, Yu-Mei; Zhang, Zhenyu; Zhao, Zhenghua; Zheng, Yangheng; Zhong, Weili; Zhou, Guorong; Zhou, Jing; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Rong; Zhou, Shun; Zhou, Wenxiong; Zhou, Xiang; Zhou, Yeling; Zhou, Yufeng; Zou, Jiaheng

    2016-03-01

    The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 kton multi-purpose underground liquid scintillator detector, was proposed with the determination of the neutrino mass hierarchy (MH) as a primary physics goal. The excellent energy resolution and the large fiducial volume anticipated for the JUNO detector offer exciting opportunities for addressing many important topics in neutrino and astro-particle physics. In this document, we present the physics motivations and the anticipated performance of the JUNO detector for various proposed measurements. Following an introduction summarizing the current status and open issues in neutrino physics, we discuss how the detection of antineutrinos generated by a cluster of nuclear power plants allows the determination of the neutrino MH at a 3-4σ significance with six years of running of JUNO. The measurement of antineutrino spectrum with excellent energy resolution will also lead to the precise determination of the neutrino oscillation parameters {{sin}}2{θ }12, {{Δ }}{m}212, and | {{Δ }}{m}{ee}2| to an accuracy of better than 1%, which will play a crucial role in the future unitarity test of the MNSP matrix. The JUNO detector is capable of observing not only antineutrinos from the power plants, but also neutrinos/antineutrinos from terrestrial and extra-terrestrial sources, including supernova burst neutrinos, diffuse supernova neutrino background, geoneutrinos, atmospheric neutrinos, and solar neutrinos. As a result of JUNO's large size, excellent energy resolution, and vertex reconstruction capability, interesting new data on these topics can be collected. For example, a neutrino burst from a typical core-collapse supernova at a distance of 10 kpc would lead to ˜5000 inverse-beta-decay events and ˜2000 all-flavor neutrino-proton ES events in JUNO, which are of crucial importance for understanding the mechanism of supernova explosion and for exploring novel phenomena such as collective neutrino oscillations

  8. Annual report 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    The report gives a review on: 1) The research activities in 1976 in the fields of high-β-Plasmas, low-β-plasmas, tokamaks, plasma theory, plasma-wall interactions, informatics, relativistic plasmas and fusion technology; b) the activities of the central technical systems, c) the organisational structure of the IPP Garching, d) the commercial management, administration and general services, e) The safety organisation, f) Public relation activities, g) Publications and conference reports, h) Present projects of the IPP Garching on the Universities of Stuttgart and Munich. (GG) [de

  9. Reconfigurable Autonomy for Future Planetary Rovers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughes, Guy

    Extra-terrestrial Planetary rover systems are uniquely remote, placing constraints in regard to communication, environmental uncertainty, and limited physical resources, and requiring a high level of fault tolerance and resistance to hardware degradation. This thesis presents a novel self-reconfiguring autonomous software architecture designed to meet the needs of extraterrestrial planetary environments. At runtime it can safely reconfigure low-level control systems, high-level decisional autonomy systems, and managed software architecture. The architecture can perform automatic Verification and Validation of self-reconfiguration at run-time, and enables a system to be self-optimising, self-protecting, and self-healing. A novel self-monitoring system, which is non-invasive, efficient, tunable, and autonomously deploying, is also presented. The architecture was validated through the use-case of a highly autonomous extra-terrestrial planetary exploration rover. Three major forms of reconfiguration were demonstrated and tested: first, high level adjustment of system internal architecture and goal; second, software module modification; and third, low level alteration of hardware control in response to degradation of hardware and environmental change. The architecture was demonstrated to be robust and effective in a Mars sample return mission use-case testing the operational aspects of a novel, reconfigurable guidance, navigation, and control system for a planetary rover, all operating in concert through a scenario that required reconfiguration of all elements of the system.

  10. A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Elek

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.

  11. The tamers of cold chaos; Die Dompteure des kalten Chaos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hergersberg, P.

    2008-07-01

    The ISS International Space Station hosts only a select number of scientific experiments - like those of GREGOR E. MORFILL and his staff at the MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR EXTRATERRESTRIAL PHYSICS. These physicists whip cold plasmas consisting of charged microparticles into line in order to study their crystallization, turbulence or flow properties through a nozzle. The results of these studies are relevant for applications in medicine and the microchip industry. (orig.)

  12. Annual report 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    A survey is presented of: a) Research activities carried out during 1975 within the framework of the scientific sections of the Institute, b) the central technical seπtions and their services, and c) the organizational structure. Enclosed are: 1) Report on the activities of the administrative management, the administration, and general services, 2) a list of all publications and conference reports issued by IPP Garching during 1975, and an annual report by the Institut fuer Plasmaphysik of the University of Stuttgart, an institute financed by IPP Garching. (GG) [de

  13. Volatility in energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffie, D.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 58 references reviews the modelling and empirical behaviour of volatility in energy prices. Constant volatility and stochastic volatility are discussed. Markovian models of stochastic volatility are described and the different classes of Markovian stochastic volatility model are examined including auto-regressive volatility, option implied and forecasted volatility, Garch volatility, Egarch volatility, multivariate Garch volatility, and stochastic volatility and dynamic hedging policies. Other volatility models and option hedging are considered. The performance of several stochastic volatility models as applied to heating oil, light oil, natural gas, electricity and light crude oil are compared

  14. Extraterrestrial hydrogeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Victor R.; Dohm, James M.; Fairén, Alberto G.; Ferré, Ty P. A.; Ferris, Justin C.; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Schulze-Makuch, Dirk

    2005-03-01

    Subsurface water processes are common for planetary bodies in the solar system and are highly probable for exoplanets (planets outside the solar system). For many solar system objects, the subsurface water exists as ice. For Earth and Mars, subsurface saturated zones have occurred throughout their planetary histories. Earth is mostly clement with the recharge of most groundwater reservoirs from ample precipitation during transient ice- and hot-house conditions, as recorded through the geologic and fossilized records. On the other hand, Mars is mostly in an ice-house stage, which is interrupted by endogenic-driven activity. This activity catastrophically drives short-lived hydrological cycling and associated climatic perturbations. Regional aquifers in the Martian highlands that developed during past, more Earth-like conditions delivered water to the northern plains. Water was also cycled to the South Polar Region during changes in climate induced by endogenic activity and/or by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. Venus very likely had a warm hydrosphere for hundreds of millions of years, before the development of its current extremely hot atmosphere and surface. Subsequently, Venus lost its hydrosphere as solar luminosity increased and a run-away moist greenhouse took effect. Subsurface oceans of water or ammonia-water composition, induced by tidal forces and radiogenic heating, probably occur on the larger satellites Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Titan, and Triton. Tidal forces operating between some of the small bodies of the outer solar system could also promote the fusion of ice and the stability of inner liquid-water oceans. Les processus de subsurface impliquant l'eau sont communs pour les corps planétaires du système solaire et sont très probables sur les exoplanètes (planètes en dehors du système solaire). Pour plusieurs objets du systèmes solaire, l'eau de subsurface est présente sous forme de glace. Pour la Terre et Mars, les zones saturées de subsurface apparaissent à travers toute leur histoire planétaire. La Terre est particulièrement clémente avec la recharge des réservoirs, avec de amples précipitations, des conditions glaciaires et de fortes chaleurs, comme l'atteste les enregistrements géologiques et paléontologiques. D'un autre côté, Mars se trouve dans une phase essentiellement glaciaire, qui est interrompue par des activités contraintes par les phénomènes endogéniques. Cette activité conduit de manière catastrophique à des cycles hydrologiques et à des perturbations climatiques brutaux. Les aquifères régionaux dans les haute terres martiennes qui se sont formés dans des conditions similaires aux conditions terrestres, alimentent les plaines du Nord. L'eau a également été déplacée vers le Pôle Sud martien durant des changements marqués par une forte activité endogénique et une modification des paramètres de l'orbite de Mars. Venus possèdait vrais emblablement une hydrosphère chaude durant des millions d'année, avant le développement de son atmosphère et sa surface particulièrement chaude. Par après Venus a perdit son hydrosphère alors que la luminosité solaire augmentait et qu'une humidité liée à un effet de serre s'installait. Les océans de subsurface d'eau ou d'eau ammoniacale, induits par les forces de marée et le chauffage radiogénique, apparaissent probablement sur les satellites les plus importants (Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Titan, Triton). Les forces de marée entre les petits corps externes du système solaire peuvent également occasionner la fusion de glace et la stabilité des océans internes d'eau liquide. Los procesos hídricos subsuperficiales son comunes en cuerpos planetarios del sistema solar y son altamente probables para exoplanetas (planetas fuera del sistema solar). Para muchos cuerpos del sistema solar, el agua subsuperficial existe como hielo. Para la Tierra y Marte han ocurrido zonas saturadas subsuperficiales a través de sus historias planetarias. La Tierra es principalmente generosa con la recarga de la mayoría de reservorios de aguas subterráneas a partir de amplia precipitación reconocida en condiciones transitorias calientes y heladas, tal y como aparece en los registros fósiles y geológicos. Por otro lado, Marte se encuentra principalmente en una etapade cámara de hielo la cual es interrumpida por actividad de tipo endogénico. Esta actividad pone en funcionamiento catastróficamente ciclos hidrológicos de vida corta y perturbaciones climáticas asociadas. Acuíferos regionales en las montañas de Marte que se desarrollaron en el pasado en condiciones similares a la Tierra distribuyen agua a las planicies del norte. El agua ha sido transportada hacia el sur de la región polar durante cambios en el clima inducidos por actividad endogénica y/o cambios en los parámetros orbitales de Marte. Venus muy probablemente tuvo una hidrósfera caliente durante cientos de millones de años, antes de que se desarrollara su atmósfera y superficie actual extremadamente caliente. Subsecuentemente, Venus perdió su hidrósfera a medida que la luminosidad solar aumentó y un efecto de invernadero húmedo escapatorio se llevó a cabo. Océanos subsuperficiales de composición agua o amoniaco-agua, inducidos por fuerzas de marea y calentamiento radiogénico, probablemente ocurren en los satélites más grandes como Europa, Ganimeda, Callisto, Titan y Triton. Las fuerzas de marea que operan entre los cuerpos pequeños del sistema solar externo podrían también promover la fusión de hielo y la estabilidad de líquido interno-aguas de los océanos.

  15. Modelo de previsão de value at risk utilizando volatilidade de longo prazo = Value at Risk prediction model using long term volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tendo em vista a importância do Value at Risk (VaR como medida de risco para instituições financeiras e agências de risco, o presente estudo avaliou se o modelo ARLS é mais preciso no cálculo do VaR de longo prazo que os modelos tradicionais, dada sua maior adequação para a previsão da volatilidade. Considerando a utilização do VaR pelos agentes de mercado como medida de risco para o gerenciamento de portfólios é importante sua adequada mensuração. A partir de dados diários dos mercados de ações e cambial dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul foram calculadas as volatilidades futuras para 15 dias, 1 mês e 3 meses. Em seguida, calculou-se as medidas tradicionais de avaliação da precisão do VaR. Os resultados sugerem a superioridade do modelo ARLS para a previsão da volatilidade cambial, capaz de prever corretamente o número de violações em 33% dos casos, enquanto os modelos tradicionais não obtiveram um bom desempenho. Com relação ao mercado acionário, os modelos GARCH e ARLS apresentaram desempenho similar. O modelo GARCH é superior considerando a perda média quadrática. Esses resultados apontam para a escolha do modelo ARLS no cálculo do VaR de portfólios cambiais devido a maior precisão alcançada. Ajuda assim os agentes de mercado a melhor gerirem o risco de suas carteiras. Em relação ao mercado acionário, em função do desempenho similar dos modelos GARCH e ARLS, o modelo GARCH é o mais indicado devido a sua maior simplicidade e fácil implementação computacional. Having in mind the importance of Value at Risk (VaR as a risk measure for financial institutions and rating agencies, this study evaluated whether the ARLS model is more accurate in the calculation of the long term VaR than the traditional models, considering it is more appropriate for predicting the long-term volatility. Due to the fact that VaR s being used for market players as a measure of risk for the portfolio

  16. 15th Anglo-French Physical Acoustics Conference (AFPAC 2016)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2017-01-01

    The 15 th Anglo-French Physical Acoustics Conference (AFPAC) was held at Selsdon Park Hotel, near London, United Kingdom, on 13-15 January 2016. The venue was an excellent location to exchange ideas, regardless whether this took place in the conference room, over lunch, at the drinks reception, or in the bar after the conference dinner. A total of 65 papers were presented at the conference. There were over 80 delegates from institutions covering five countries. On the first day of AFPAC, the Institute of Physics joined forces with the National Physical Laboratory (UK) to host a special session on cavitation. The Cavitation User Forum, a bi-annual event specifically dedicated to applications of high power ultrasound, brought together experts from academia and from the cleaning, processing and medical industries. This session was kicked off with an invited talk by Dr David Fernandez Rivas (University of Twente, The Netherlands), on the reproducibility of sonochemistry and ultrasonic cleaning. The Cavitation User Forum was followed by a special session on biomedical ultrasound, co-sponsored by the Medical Physics Group of the Institute of Physics, which featured a keynote talk by Prof Robin Cleveland (University of Oxford) on ultrasonic surgery. The session included talks on acoustic microscopy of live cells, histotripsy, phase-insensitive ultrasound computed tomography for the diagnosis of breast cancer, high-intensity focused ultrasound and the biomedical applications of solitary wave impulses generated by granular chains The second day featured an invited presentation by Prof Tim Leighton (University of Southampton, UK) on the acoustic bubble, which discussed ocean, cetacean and extra-terrestrial acoustics, and cold water cleaning. Prof Christ Glorieux (KU Leuven, Belgium) discussed the applications of photothermal and photoacoustic methods using different spatiotemporal excitation patterns. A broad range of physical acoustics topics was reviewed that day. Work was

  17. Measurement of microbial activity in soil by colorimetric observation of in situ dye reduction: an approach to detection of extraterrestrial life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barnes Bruce

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting microbial life in extraterrestrial locations is a goal of space exploration because of ecological and health concerns about possible contamination of other planets with earthly organisms, and vice versa. Previously we suggested a method for life detection based on the fact that living entities require a continual input of energy accessed through coupled oxidations and reductions (an electron transport chain. We demonstrated using earthly soils that the identification of extracted components of electron transport chains is useful for remote detection of a chemical signature of life. The instrument package developed used supercritical carbon dioxide for soil extraction, followed by chromatography or electrophoresis to separate extracted compounds, with final detection by voltammetry and tandem mass-spectrometry. Results Here we used Earth-derived soils to develop a related life detection system based on direct observation of a biological redox signature. We measured the ability of soil microbial communities to reduce artificial electron acceptors. Living organisms in pure culture and those naturally found in soil were shown to reduce 2,3-dichlorophenol indophenol (DCIP and the tetrazolium dye 2,3-bis(2-methoxy-4-nitro-5-sulfophenyl-2H-tetrazolium-5-carboxanilide inner salt (XTT. Uninoculated or sterilized controls did not reduce the dyes. A soil from Antarctica that was determined by chemical signature and DNA analysis to be sterile also did not reduce the dyes. Conclusion Observation of dye reduction, supplemented with extraction and identification of only a few specific signature redox-active biochemicals such as porphyrins or quinones, provides a simplified means to detect a signature of life in the soils of other planets or their moons.

  18. The Ångström formula with coefficients having a physical meaning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinrichsen, K.

    1994-01-01

    A new method is proposed to evaluate the coefficients a and b of the Ångström formula H| H 0 = a + b * s/s 0 . Then, a has the physical meaning of the fraction of diffuse radiation, D, to extraterrestrial radiation, H 0 , and b has the meaning of the fraction of direct radiation, I(1), to H 0 . This is possible at sites where measurements with a shadow band pyranometer are available, in addition to measurements of global radiation, H, and sunshine duration, s. The Ångström formula then gives substantial information about the radiation climate of a site. It is feasible to calculate global radiation, H, on tilted surfaces and planes following the sun's disk, which is essential to evaluate the efficiency of solar energy conversion systems at locations where only measurements of the sunshine duration, s, are available. Thus, it is strongly recommended to replace the regression coefficients a′ and b′ presented in the European Solar Radiation Atlas, which were estimated by least squares approximation. For the site of Hamburg, Germany, it is shown that a ten years interval of data records may be too short to give reliable values of climatological means of D, I(1), H, and s. An increase of direct radiation at Hamburg during the last decade can be detected by the proposed method and may be explained by a decreasing amount of optically active constituents in the air, probable a result of the clean air policy in Germany. (author)

  19. Estimation of Exchange Rate Volatility using APARCH-type Models: A Case Study of Indonesia (2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didit B Nugroho

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Volatiliy measurement and modeling is an important aspect in many areas of finance. The main purpose of this study is to apply seven APARCH-type models with (1,1 lags to investigate the behavior of exchange rate volatility for the EUR, JPY, and USD selling exchange rates to IDR for the duration from January 2010 to December 2015. The competing models include ARCH, GARCH, TARCH, TS-ARCH, GJR-GARCH, NARCH, and APARCH used with Gaussian normal distribution. In order to estimate the model parameters, this study applies the Bayesian inference using the adaptive random walk Metropolis method in the MCMC algorithm. Empirical results based on the deviance information criterion indicate that the GARCH (1,1, APARCH (1,1, and TARCH (1,1 models provide the best fit for the EUR, JPY, and USD data, respectively. In those models, both the JPY and USD data have significant negative leverage effect at the 99% credible level. Moreover, the JPY returns also have significant Taylor effect in return volatility at the 99% credible level.   Keywords: APARCH, ARWM, IDR exchange rate, MCMC, volatility

  20. Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, Perry

    2006-01-01

    Forecasts of oil price volatility are important inputs into macroeconometric models, financial market risk assessment calculations like value at risk, and option pricing formulas for futures contracts. This paper uses several different univariate and multivariate statistical models to estimate forecasts of daily volatility in petroleum futures price returns. The out-of-sample forecasts are evaluated using forecast accuracy tests and market timing tests. The TGARCH model fits well for heating oil and natural gas volatility and the GARCH model fits well for crude oil and unleaded gasoline volatility. Simple moving average models seem to fit well in some cases provided the correct order is chosen. Despite the increased complexity, models like state space, vector autoregression and bivariate GARCH do not perform as well as the single equation GARCH model. Most models out perform a random walk and there is evidence of market timing. Parametric and non-parametric value at risk measures are calculated and compared. Non-parametric models outperform the parametric models in terms of number of exceedences in backtests. These results are useful for anyone needing forecasts of petroleum futures volatility. (author)

  1. Contribution IFJ PAN to the construction of the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator (2008 - 2009)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blocki, J.; Hajduk, L.; Kotula, J.; Stodulski, M.; Sulek, Z.

    2010-05-01

    The Wendelstein 7-X stellarator is now being assembled at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physic (IPP), Greifswald, Germany. The Agreement on Cooperation between the Max-Planck-Institut fur Plasmaphysik in Garching and the Henryk Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics Polish Academy of Sciences in Krakow (IFJ PAN) was signed off in 2007. The intention of the agreement is to cover the whole period of the W7-X construction. According to the agreement IFJ PAN has taken over the following tasks: 1. to assembly of the bus bar system powering the superconducting coils of the stellarator; 2. to take part in design of equipment used during handling, transportation and assembly of outer vessels; 3. to manufacture 30 polichromators used for plasma diagnostics. Task No 2 was completed in 2008 while tasks No 1 and 3 are to be continued. (authors)

  2. Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

  3. Assessment of variability in the hydrological cycle of the Loess Plateau, China: examining dependence structures of hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, A.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Investigating variability in dependence structures of hydrological processes is of critical importance for developing an understanding of mechanisms of hydrological cycles in changing environments. In focusing on this topic, present work involves the following: (1) identifying and eliminating serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in monthly streamflow (Q), precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) series using the ARMA-GARCH model (ARMA: autoregressive moving average; GARCH: generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity); (2) describing dependence structures of hydrological processes using partial copula coupled with the ARMA-GARCH model and identifying their variability via copula-based likelihood-ratio test method; and (3) determining conditional probability of annual Q under different climate scenarios on account of above results. This framework enables us to depict hydrological variables in the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity and to examine dependence structures of hydrological processes while excluding the influence of covariates by using partial copula-based ARMA-GARCH model. Eight major catchments across the Loess Plateau (LP) are used as study regions. Results indicate that (1) The occurrence of change points in dependence structures of Q and P (PE) varies across the LP. Change points of P-PE dependence structures in all regions almost fully correspond to the initiation of global warming, i.e., the early 1980s. (3) Conditional probabilities of annual Q under various P and PE scenarios are estimated from the 3-dimensional joint distribution of (Q, P and PE) based on the above change points. These findings shed light on mechanisms of the hydrological cycle and can guide water supply planning and management, particularly in changing environments.

  4. Desempenho de estimadores de volatilidade na bolsa de valores de São Paulo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo de Sá Mota

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar o desempenho de diferentes métodos de extração da volatilidade do Índice da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (IBOVESPA tendo como referência a volatilidade realizada. Comparamos modelos da família GARCH com estimadores alternativos baseados em cotações de abertura, fechamento, máximo e mínimo. Os resultados indicam que os estimadores alternativos são tão precisos quanto os modelos do tipo GARCH, apesar de serem muito mais econômicos em termos computacionais.

  5. Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

  6. Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    ) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95......%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns....

  7. How Non-Gaussian Shocks Affect Risk Premia in Non-Linear DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    This paper studies how non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in DSGE models approximated to second and third order. Based on an extension of the results in Schmitt-Grohé & Uribe (2004) to third order, we derive propositions for how rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH affect any risk...... premia in a wide class of DSGE models. To quantify these effects, we then set up a standard New Keynesian DSGE model where total factor productivity includes rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH. We …find that rare disasters increase the mean level of the 10-year nominal term premium, whereas...

  8. What moves the European carbon market? Insights from conditional jump models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gronwald, Marc; Ketterer, Janina [Munich Univ. (Germany). Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

    2012-04-15

    This paper is concerned with carbon price volatility and the underlying causes of large price movements in the European emissions trading market. Based on the application of a combined jump-GARCH model the behavior of EUA prices is characterized. The jump- GARCH model explains the unsteady carbon price movement well and, moreover, shows that between 40 and 60 percent of the carbon price variance are triggered by jumps. Information regarding EUA supply and news from international carbon markets are identified as important drivers of these price spikes. These results can lead regulators the way if smoother carbon prices are desired.

  9. EFFECT OF GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ON STOCK RETURNS:EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz YILDIZ CONTUK

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the effect of fluctuations in gold prices on ISE 100 indexusing daily prices and the index data from 01.01.2009 to 31.12.2012. The rawdata has been converted into earningsyields and analyzed. The study firstdetermines whether or not the use of aGARCH model would beappropriate usinga heteroskedasticity test. The test resultsshow that there was an ARCH effect inboth variables, and that GARCH modeling could be used. The results obtainedfrom MGARCH modeling show that gold and stock exchange yields have beenaffected both by their own shocks and by shocks of each other

  10. Solar planetary systems stardust to terrestrial and extraterrestrial planetary sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, Asit B

    2017-01-01

    The authors have put forth great efforts in gathering present day knowledge about different objects within our solar system and universe. This book features the most current information on the subject with information acquired from noted scientists in this area. The main objective is to convey the importance of the subject and provide detailed information on the physical makeup of our planetary system and technologies used for research. Information on educational projects has also been included in the Radio Astronomy chapters.This information is a real plus for students and educators considering a career in Planetary Science or for increasing their knowledge about our planetary system

  11. The 2P1/2 → 2P3/2 laser transition in atomic iodine and the problem of search for signals from extraterrestrial intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kutaev, Yu F; Mankevich, S K; Nosach, O Yu; Orlov, E P

    2007-01-01

    It is proposed to search for signals from extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) at a wavelength of 1.315 μm of the laser 2 P 1/2 → 2 P 3/2 transition in the atomic iodine, which can be used for this purpose as the natural frequency reference. The search at this wavelength is promising because active quantum filters (AQFs) with the quantum sensitivity limit have been developed for this wavelength, which are capable of receiving laser signals, consisting of only a few photons, against the background of emission from a star under study. In addition, high-power iodine lasers emitting diffraction-limited radiation at 1.315 μm have been created, which highly developed ETI also can have. If a ETI sends in our direction a diffraction-limited 10-ns, 1-kJ laser pulse with the beam diameter of 10 m, a receiver with an AQF mounted on a ten-meter extra-atmospheric optical telescope can detect this signal at a distance of up to 300 light years, irrespective of the ETI position on the celestial sphere. The realisation of the projects for manufacturing optical telescopes of diameter 30 m will increase the research range up to 2700 light years. A weak absorption of the 1.315-μm radiation in the Earth atmosphere (the signal is attenuated by less than 20%) allows the search for ETI signals by using ground telescopes equipped with adaptive optical systems. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)

  12. US plans for burning plasma experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, D.

    1982-01-01

    The first US burning plasma experiment will be the TFTR at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The initial start-up with hydrogen is expected in December, 1983. The experiment by D-T reaction will begin in 1986. Because of the lack of shielding capability, later experiment is not yet defined. The informal scientific interaction with JET (European project) is kept. The design work on the Fusion Engineering Device (FED) continues, but is delayed. US fusion laboratories collaborated with IPP-Garching on the conceptual design of Zephyr experiment. The US continues to participate in INTOR activities, and will investigate into the critical issues relevant to both INTOR and FED in coming years. (Kato, T.)

  13. Records in ultra low radioactivity measurements with neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hentig, R. von; Goldbrunner, T.; Angloher, G.; Feilitzsch, F. von

    1999-01-01

    Neutron Activation Analysis has emerged to be an analytical method sensitive enough to detect fg/g traces of unstable primordial nuclides in complex matrices. Especially low count rate experiments in the field of solar neutrino physics and dark matter search can profit from the detection capabilities of this method which had been unattained so far. This gain in sensitivity has been achieved by combining neutron activation, radiochemical separation methods, and efficient low level counting systems at the new underground laboratory of the accelerator laboratory in Garching. Recent improvements which have been made in the purification and analysis of the liquid scintillator, as foreseen for the solar neutrino experiment BOREXINO, are being presented as an example in this paper

  14. BACKTESTING VALUE AT RISK MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL BREAK ON THE ROMANIAN AND HUNGARIAN STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cociuba Mihail Ioan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Transactions on financial markets are associated with variability, risk and uncertainty, so quantification of risk has a great importance. Beside Standard Deviation and Variance, one of the most involved risk measure methods is Value-at-Risk (VaR. In this study, we use daily return for the stock index from Romania (BET and Hungary (BUX for the 01:2007 - 02:2013 periods in order to test the influence of structural breaks on the VaR metrics. We find out that the ARCH phenomenon is present, so we use the GARCH family models. The structural breaks in the series mean and variance are identified using the Zivot-Andrews test and PELT algorithm, the structural break dates are captured using dummy variables in the GARCH models (struc-GARCH, the selection of models is done using the informational criterion [Akaike, Schwarz, Log-likelihood]. The results of present research show a greater volatility associated with a higher risk level in case of Romanian stock index. The stock market indices return follows a negatively skewed and leptokurtic distributions forms either in two cases, so is unspecific a normal distribution. After applying above mentioned tests we can conclude that there are eight structural breaks in BET index returns variance and there are five breakpoints in case of BUX. The breakpoints in mean show very closely results in time, for BET in February 2009 and for BUX March 2009. Backtesting VaR models are done by measuring the number of times the loss is greater than the VaR forecast. The first step for unconditional coverage testing consists in comparing of fraction of VaR violation for a particular risk model. The independence testing it is very important tool in back-testing, because it is not the same that the VaR violations are differentiated in time or there are clustered in some certain period. By checking the independence test, we have the possibility to discover and reject the model with clustered hit sequence. Testing the influence

  15. Conceptual design of SC magnet system for ITER, (6)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Kiyoshi; Sugimoto, Makoto; Tsuji, Hiroshi

    1991-08-01

    The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is an experimental thermonuclear tokamak reactor in order to test the basic physics performance and technologies. The conceptual design activity (CDA) of ITER required the joint work at a technical site at the Max Plank Institute for Plasma Physics in the Garching, Germany from 1988 to 1990. The technical proposals from Japan were summarized by the Fusion Experimental Reactor (FER) Team and the Superconducting Magnet Laboratory of the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI). This paper describes the Japanese contributions of the R and D proposals to the magnet system for the ITER. These proposals were discussed in ITER CDA design team and summarized in ITER Technical report No. 20. The development program of Toroidal Field Coil is basically proposed from Japan with the design and analysis reports. The Japanese proposals are almost adopted in the ITER Long-Term R and D program. (author)

  16. Perbandingan Berbagai Model Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series Dalam Analisis Risiko Investasi Saham Syariah Dengan Metode Value At Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Farhan Qudratullah

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Value at Risk (VaR is one of the tools recommended Bank Indonesia to gauge the risk of an investment, the VaR approach tends to be more associated with the conventional assumption of a normal distribution, while contemporary empirical findings indicate the existence of patterns of abnormality in the nature of statistical data, especially on financial data. Up to this time shares in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII is still heavily influenced by the dynamics of market volatility which one, so the necessary in-depth analysis to help investors make the right decisions in investing. This research addresses the issue of risk analysis model using the VaR approach using a variety of model Heterokedastic Timeseris Conditionals (CHT and find the best model. As for the data used is the daily closing stock index data-Sharia stocks (JII post-crisis global 2008 (January 2009 – June 2011 and the software used is E-Views 5.1 and Excel 2007. The results obtained are of 16 (sixteen model approach to VaR-CHT used, only 5 (five a valid model on a confidence level of 99%, i.e. Approach (2.2 GARCH, GARCH M standard deviation GARCH (1,1, M Log (Variansi (1,1, TARCH M Log (Variansi (1,1, EGARCH and M Log (Variansi (1,1. The VaR Model of the CHT are the best and recommended in analyzing the risks of stock investment is Shariah (JII is a model that gives the value of the VaR model, i.e. the smallest VaR GARCH-M standard deviation (1,1 that gives the value of VaR is equal to 3.2396%.

  17. Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agya Atabani Adi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

  18. Working Group Reports and Presentations: Earth 3.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dator, James

    2006-01-01

    We affirm the principle that a viable human space exploration program must be conducted hand-in-hand with a comprehensive scientific research program that incorporates both the physical and life sciences and that continues to protect and extend understanding of our home planet. Without advances in life science, we will be incapable of devising self-sustaining extraterrestrial habitats, and we will struggle to survive on the only living planet we know. Without advances in the physical sciences, we limit our ability to imagine new technologies for space travel and to understand the nature of the universe we explore. Scientific advances expand the boundaries of humanity s dreams.

  19. Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Chuffart

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

  20. A complex network for studying the transmission mechanisms in stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Wen; Guan, Lijing; Shen, Jiangjian; Song, Linqiu; Cui, Lingxiao

    2017-10-01

    This paper introduces a new complex network to describe the volatility transmission mechanisms in stock market. The network can not only endogenize stock market's volatility but also figure out the direction of volatility spillover. In this model, we first use BEKK-GARCH to estimate the volatility spillover effects among Chinese 18 industry sectors. Then, based on the ARCH coefficients and GARCH coefficients, the directional shock networks and variance networks in different stages are constructed separately. We find that the spillover effects and network structures changes in different stages. The results of the topological stability test demonstrate that the connectivity of networks becomes more fragile to selective attacks than stochastic attacks.

  1. Pathways of evolution for man and machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mclaughlin, W. I.

    1983-01-01

    A simplified model of the future is introduced in order to examine the relations between man, machine, and extraterrestrial intelligence. The observed lack of extraterrestrials on earth is used as a boundary condition for the model. Two exobiological conclusions are obtained: (1) advanced extraterrestrials exist but are difficult to observe or to distinguish from natural phenomena, (2) lower level, man-like extraterrestrials, which are potentially observable, are rare in the Universe because they are rapidly replaced in the evolutinary sequence by the intelligent machines which they create. The decline of man is inferred and may take place as soon as 100 years from now or as long as 100,000 years from the present time. Thus, we are a short-lived species, having a life expectancy of only a million years. A note is appended on the rationale and methods of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence in light of the above calculations. The Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani systems present favourable opportunities for a radio-search experiment in 1987 and 1988, respectively.

  2. Multigenerational Independent Colony for Extraterrestrial Habitation, Autonomy, and Behavior Health (MICEHAB): An Investigation of a Long Duration, Partial Gravity, Autonomous Rodent Colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Erica M.; Simon, Matthew A.; Antol, Jeffrey; Chai, Patrick R.; Jones, Christopher A.; Klovstad, Jordan J.; Neilan, James H.; Stillwagen, Frederic H.; Williams, Phillip A.; Bednara, Michael; hide

    2015-01-01

    The path from Earth to Mars requires exploration missions to be increasingly Earth-independent as the foundation is laid for a sustained human presence in the following decades. NASA pioneering of Mars will expand the boundaries of human exploration, as a sustainable presence on the surface requires humans to successfully reproduce in a partial gravity environment independent from Earth intervention. Before significant investment is made in capabilities leading to such pioneering efforts, the challenges of multigenerational mammalian reproduction in a partial gravity environment need be investigated. The Multi-generational Independent Colony for Extraterrestrial Habitation, Autonomy, and Behavior health is designed to study these challenges. The proposed concept is a conceptual, long duration, autonomous habitat designed to house rodents in a partial gravity environment with the goal of understanding the effects of partial gravity on mammalian reproduction over multiple generations and how to effectively design such a facility to operate autonomously while keeping the rodents healthy in order to achieve multiple generations. All systems are designed to feed forward directly to full-scale human missions to Mars. This paper presents the baseline design concept formulated after considering challenges in the mission and vehicle architectures such as: vehicle automation, automated crew health management/medical care, unique automated waste disposal and hygiene, handling of deceased crew members, reliable long-duration crew support systems, and radiation protection. This concept was selected from an architectural trade space considering the balance between mission science return and robotic and autonomy capabilities. The baseline design is described in detail including: transportation and facility operation constraints, artificial gravity system design, habitat design, and a full-scale mock-up demonstration of autonomous rodent care facilities. The proposed concept has

  3. The Impact of Discovering Life beyond Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: astrobiology and society Steven J. Dick; Part I. Motivations and Approaches. How Do We Frame the Problems of Discovery and Impact?: Introduction; 1. Current approaches to finding life beyond earth, and what happens if we do Seth Shostak; 2. The philosophy of astrobiology: the Copernican and Darwinian presuppositions Iris Fry; 3. History, discovery, analogy: three approaches to the impact of discovering life beyond earth Steven J. Dick; 4. Silent impact: why the discovery of extraterrestrial life should be silent Clément Vidal; Part II. Transcending Anthropocentrism. How Do We Move beyond our Own Preconceptions of Life, Intelligence and Culture?: Introduction; 5. The landscape of life Dirk Schulze-Makuch; 6. The landscape of intelligence Lori Marino; 7. Universal biology: assessing universality from a single example Carlos Mariscal; 8. Equating culture, civilization, and moral development in imagining extraterrestrial intelligence: anthropocentric assumptions? John Traphagan; 9. Communicating with the other: infinity, geometry, and universal math and science Douglas Vakoch; Part III. Philosophical, Theological, and Moral Impact. How Do We Comprehend the Cultural Challenges Raised by Discovery?: Introduction; 10. Life, intelligence and the pursuit of value in cosmic evolution Mark Lupisella; 11. 'Klaatu barada nikto' - or, do they really think like us? Michael Ruse; 12. Alien minds Susan Schneider; 13. The moral subject of astrobiology: guideposts for exploring our ethical and political responsibilities towards extraterrestrial life Elspeth Wilson and Carol Cleland; 14. Astrobiology and theology Robin Lovin; 15. Would you baptize an extraterrestrial? Guy Consolmagno, SJ; Part IV. Practical Considerations: How Should Society Prepare for Discovery - and Non-Discovery?: Introduction; 16. Is there anything new about astrobiology and society? Jane Maienschein; 17. Evaluating preparedness for the discovery of extraterrestrial life: considering potential

  4. Asteroids and Aliens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostro, S.

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of extraterrestrial life (ETL) and extraterrestrial intelligent life (ETI) is extraordinarily complex and mulitidisciplinary, in part because relevant questions involve both the origin/evolution of terrestrial life and the future of human civilization.

  5. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  6. We are alone in our Galaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipler, F. J.

    1982-10-01

    An assessment is presented of the probability of the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life in view of biological evolutionary constraints, in order to furnish some perspective for the hopes and claims of search of extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) enthusiasts. Attention is given to a hypothetical extraterrestrial civilization's exploration/colonization of interstellar space by means of von Neumann machine-like, endlessly self-replicating space probes which would eventually reach the planetary systems of all stars in the Galaxy. These probes would be able to replicate the biology of their creator species, upon reaching a hospitable planet. It is suggested that the fundamental technological feasibility of such schemes, and their geometrically progressive comprehension of the Galaxy, would make actual colonization of the earth by extraterrestrials so probable as to destroy the hopes of SETI backers for occasional contact.

  7. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; hide

    2017-01-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  8. Testing and modelling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity of streamflow processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Wang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional streamflow models operate under the assumption of constant variance or season-dependent variances (e.g. ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average models for deseasonalized streamflow series and PARMA (Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average models for seasonal streamflow series. However, with McLeod-Li test and Engle's Lagrange Multiplier test, clear evidences are found for the existence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (i.e. the ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effect, a nonlinear phenomenon of the variance behaviour, in the residual series from linear models fitted to daily and monthly streamflow processes of the upper Yellow River, China. It is shown that the major cause of the ARCH effect is the seasonal variation in variance of the residual series. However, while the seasonal variation in variance can fully explain the ARCH effect for monthly streamflow, it is only a partial explanation for daily flow. It is also shown that while the periodic autoregressive moving average model is adequate in modelling monthly flows, no model is adequate in modelling daily streamflow processes because none of the conventional time series models takes the seasonal variation in variance, as well as the ARCH effect in the residuals, into account. Therefore, an ARMA-GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity error model is proposed to capture the ARCH effect present in daily streamflow series, as well as to preserve seasonal variation in variance in the residuals. The ARMA-GARCH error model combines an ARMA model for modelling the mean behaviour and a GARCH model for modelling the variance behaviour of the residuals from the ARMA model. Since the GARCH model is not followed widely in statistical hydrology, the work can be a useful addition in terms of statistical modelling of daily streamflow processes for the hydrological community.

  9. Electrochemical 'cold fusion' trials at IPP Garching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosch, H.S.; Gernhardt, J.; Karger, F.; Perchermeier, J.; Wurden, G.A.

    1989-07-01

    Following the report of Fleischmann and Pons, we (The Bavarian Bubble Bottle Team) have attempted to reproduce their claims of cold nuclear fusion, and failed. We note that our measurements would not be able to detect neutrons at the level of Jones et al. Three electrolytic cell experiments were conducted using palladium cathodes and Platinum anodes, in a 0.1 Molar solution of LiD in heavy water, without any signs of neutrons, tritium or gammas above backgrounds, and within ±0.3 Watt accuracy calorimetry, no excess heating. Excess heating at the levels of F P would have been easily detected, if present. Intrinsic tritium, differing from each D 2 O bottle tested, was however observed. The longest duration experiment ran for 21 days, and was an attempt to duplicate the large 'melting incident' of F P . This was terminated on April 28, 1989, by throwing the vacuum-cast 22 gram, deuterium-loaded palladium cathode directly into liquid nitrogen, immediately next to a bare BF 3 counter (backed by 25 cm of moderator), in order to attempt one of the Italian ENEA neutron production variants. No neutrons above backgrounds were seen, while counting for one hour, and also none while the piece warmed to room temperature over the next hour. Post mortem analysis of the darkened, hardened Pd piece showed large crystal grains (up to 2 mmx2 mm), and continuing evolution of gas bubbles at the grain boundaries even four days after the experiment was ended. Eight weeks after loading, the catalytically active palladium piece continued to create heavy water (with exposure to oxygen in the air). (orig.)

  10. Low-Frequency Volatility in China’s Gold Futures Market and Its Macroeconomic Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We extract low- and high-frequency volatility from China’s Shanghai gold futures market using an asymmetric Spline-GARCH (ASP-GARCH model. We then regress monthly low-frequency volatility on selected monthly macroeconomic indicators to study the impact of macroeconomy on gold futures market and to test for excess volatility. Our main result is volatility in China’s Shanghai gold futures market resulting from both macroeconomic fluctuations and investor behaviour. Chinese Consumer Price Index Volatility and US dollar volatility are the two main determinants of low-frequency gold volatility. We also find significant evidence of excess volatility, which can in part be explained in terms of loss-aversive investor behaviour.

  11. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  12. Volatility Transmission between Dow Jones Stock Index and Emerging Bond Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Saadaoui

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we use a bivariate GARCH model to estimate simultaneously of the mean and the conditional variance between the Dow Jones stock index and some emerging bond indices. We used the DCC-GARCH model to graphically demonstrate the peaks of the volatility transmission. We examined this transmission using daily returns between July, 30, 2009 and January, 18, 2011 extracted from Datastream. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant transmission of shocks and volatility between the Dow Jones stock index and bond indices of the emerging countries. The results also confirm the idea that the crisis was transmitted from the United States to the emerging countries due to foreign investment made in these countries.

  13. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  14. The probability of extraterrestrial life; La probabilidad de vida extraterrestre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez B, A

    1991-06-15

    Since beginning of times, human beings need to live in the company of other humans, beings developing what we now know as human societies. According to this idea there has been speculation, specially in the present century, about the possibility that human society has company of the other thinking creatures living in other planets somewhere in our galaxy. In this talk we will only use reliable data from scientific observers in order to establish a probability. We will explain the analysis on the physico-chemical principles which allow the evolution of organic molecules in our planet and establish these as the forerunners of life in our planet. On the other hand, the physical process governing stars, their characteristics and their effects on planets will also be explained as well as the amount of energy that a planet receives, its mass, atmosphere and kind of orbit. Finally, considering all this information, a probability of life from outer space will be given. (Author)

  15. Método predictivo de volatilidad tipo cambio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Viales Abellán

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Las series temporales descritas por precios de ciertos activos financieros tales como el de las acciones y divisas presentan dos principales características, excesos de kurtosis y clustering de volatilidad. Para recoger estas características se han utilizado modelos no lineales tales como los modelos Garch o Volatilidad Condicionada y los modelos de Volatilidad Estocástica, ambos tipos de modelo son empleados para la gestión del riesgo cambiario a corto plazo; el primer tipo de modelos definen la volatilidad en función de la misma volatilidad rezagada y de los shocks (innovaciones de volatilidad; el segundo tipo de modelos son similares a los modelos Garch con la variante de que la volatilidad incluye por si misma un término aleatorio de tipo proceso Wienner2; estos modelos son empleados para simular caminatas aleatorias del tipo de cambio con volatilidades simuladas por las ecuación estocásticas de volatilidad.En el presente trabajo se analizará el desempeño del modelo Garch en comparación a las medidas de volatilidad utilizadas actualmente para la gestión del riesgo cambiario; sus implicaciones para la gestión de riesgos.

  16. Symmetric and asymmetric US sector return volatilities in presence of oil, financial and economic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Yuan, Yuan; Chiang, Thomas; Nandha, Mohan

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the impacts of world, country, and sector-specific variables on the stock return volatility of twenty-seven US sectors in the short- and long-run, accounting for the asymmetric shocks based on GARCH models. In the standard GARCH model the two world variables, oil and Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI), have differing impacts on the US equity sector returns' volatility, with oil price dampening it while MSCI heightening it for most sectors. This result underlines the need for hedging more against world capital market risk relative to oil risk which is probably hedged by many sectors. The world and country factors' impacts are not as pervasive across the board, compared with the sector-specific impacts of the P/B ratio and trading volume which affect almost all sectors. Increases in the P/B ratio would reduce the aggregate volatility, while increases in the trading volume would heighten it for all sectors. Asymmetry of factor impacts on volatility is also found for most sectors. Most of the GARCH factor results are confirmed in the CGARCH model with the exception of the impact of interest rate on the short-lived transitory volatility. Finally, interesting econometric results on the inclusion or exclusion of trading volumes are discussed.

  17. Investigation of the Greek Stock Exchange volatility and the impact of foreign markets from 2007 to 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Sariannidis

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this paper - The current paper aims to analyze the impact of the debt crisis on the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility. The research also examines the impact of powerful foreign capital markets on the Greek Stock Exchange market, the seasonality returns (Day-of-the-Week effect and the volatility structure. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis of data is made by employing the GARCH models, and more specifically the GJR-GARCH model. Findings - The results of the GJR-GARCH model demonstrate that the debt crisis and, therefore, its consequences increase the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility and the Greek market does not react asymmetrically to negative information. In addition, the results indicate the importance of foreign markets in shaping the first moment of the FTSE / ASE 20 index and the presence of the Reverse Day of the Week effect. Research limitations/implications - The implication of volatility measurement is vital in determining the cost for investment, security pricing markets, hedging and other trading strategies, and also for regulatory policies conducted within financial markets. Originality/value - The paper may prove helpful to regulatory authorities, investors and financial analysts to understand the structure and behavior of volatility in a small stock exchange market under crisis.

  18. Ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic waves in the Earth's crust and magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guglielmi, A V

    2007-01-01

    Research on natural intra- and extraterrestrially produced electromagnetic waves with periods ranging from 0.2 to 600 s is reviewed. The way in which the energy of rock movements transforms into the energy of an alternating magnetic field is analyzed. Methods for detecting seismomagnetic signals against a strong background are described. In discussing the physics of ultra-low-frequency waves in the magnetosphere, the 11-year activity modulation of 1-Hz waves and ponderomotive forces affecting plasma distribution are emphasized. (reviews of topical problems)

  19. Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

  20. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 10, no. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This article provides a summary of results of the ITER Physics Committee Meeting, which was held on 14 October 2000 at the ITER Garching Joint Work Site, Germany. The ITER Physics Committee is the body responsible for overseeing, through the seven specialized Expert Groups, the R and D activities contributed voluntarily by the ITER Parties. The Parties' Physics Designated Persons, the Chairs and Co-Chairs of ITER Physics Expert Groups and the JCT members involved attended the Meeting. As usual, the meeting was chaired by the ITER Director, Dr. R. Aymar, who reported on the status of the ITER EDA. Dr. Aymar described the steps being taken in preparing the ITER-FEAT Final Design Report (FDR), and further stated that the Report would be available in time to be of benefit to the Negotiations on the ITER Joint Implementation, expected to start around May 2001. All Parties recognize that the ITER Physics Expert Group structure has been useful in focusing the tokamak physics activity on the ITER-relevant issues and provides an efficient worldwide collaboration on confirming innovative solutions. The concept of an international workshop to be organized as a pre-meeting of each Expert Group meeting, in order to involve U.S. scientists in the discussion of generic tokamak physics issues, was introduced in 2000, with some success, and its goal should be pursued

  1. SETI: Spreading the net

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carstairs, Ian R.

    2002-12-01

    Ian R Carstairs reports on efforts to extend the search for extraterrestrial intelligence to X and γ-ray regions. Traditional Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) strategies have used radio, microwave and, to a limited extent, optical searches. But this ignores the higher energy X and γ-ray regions that a technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilization might use to attract our attention - using messages encoded in discrete photon-counting exchange, much like the signals seen from pulsars. Here, the methods used in high-energy pulsar detection and analysis are reviewed and applied to this new SETI initiative.

  2. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Genio, A. D. Del; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K.; Clune, T. L.

    2017-01-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  3. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Genio, A. D. Del; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Clune, T. L. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  4. A NEW EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE PLATINUM SPOT RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Kruse

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The global platinum market has been in downturn and unstable for five consecutive years, and thus market participants are demanding effective quantitative risk management tools. Since platinum is so widely used and serves as an important investment vehicle, the importance of risk management of platinum spot returns cannot be understated. In this paper, we take advantage of a very popular econometric model, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH model, for platinum returns. We received two important findings by using the conventional GARCH models in explain daily platinum spot returns. First, it is crucial to introduce heavy-tailed distribution to explain conditional heavy tails; and second, the NRIG distribution performs better than the most widely-used heavy-tailed distribution, the Student’s t distribution.

  5. A Compton camera prototype for prompt gamma medical imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thirolf P.G.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Compton camera prototype for a position-sensitive detection of prompt γ rays from proton-induced nuclear reactions is being developed in Garching. The detector system allows to track the Comptonscattered electrons. The camera consists of a monolithic LaBr3:Ce scintillation absorber crystal, read out by a multi-anode PMT, preceded by a stacked array of 6 double-sided silicon strip detectors acting as scatterers. The LaBr3:Ce crystal has been characterized with radioactive sources. Online commissioning measurements were performed with a pulsed deuteron beam at the Garching Tandem accelerator and with a clinical proton beam at the OncoRay facility in Dresden. The determination of the interaction point of the photons in the monolithic crystal was investigated.

  6. Performance testing of an off-plane reflection grating and silicon pore optic spectrograph at PANTER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlowe, Hannah; McEntaffer, Randall L.; Allured, Ryan; DeRoo, Casey T.; Donovan, Benjamin D.; Miles, Drew M.; Tutt, James H.; Burwitz, Vadim; Menz, Benedikt; Hartner, Gisela D.; Smith, Randall K.; Cheimets, Peter; Hertz, Edward; Bookbinder, Jay A.; Günther, Ramses; Yanson, Alex; Vacanti, Giuseppe; Ackermann, Marcelo

    2015-10-01

    An x-ray spectrograph consisting of aligned, radially ruled off-plane reflection gratings and silicon pore optics (SPO) was tested at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics PANTER x-ray test facility. SPO is a test module for the proposed Arcus mission, which will also feature aligned off-plane reflection gratings. This test is the first time two off-plane gratings were actively aligned to each other and with an SPO to produce an overlapped spectrum. We report the performance of the complete spectrograph utilizing the aligned gratings module and plans for future development.

  7. WORKSHOP: Low temperature devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    With extraterrestrial neutrinos (whether from the sun or further afield) continuing to make science news, and with the search for the so far invisible 'dark matter' of the universe a continual preoccupation, physicists from different walks of life (solid state, low temperature, particles, astrophysics) gathered at a workshop on low temperature devices for the detection of neutrinos and dark matter, held from 12-13 March at Ringberg Castle on Lake Tegernsee in the Bavarian Alps, and organized by the Max Planck Institute for Physics and Astrophysics in Munich

  8. WORKSHOP: Low temperature devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1987-06-15

    With extraterrestrial neutrinos (whether from the sun or further afield) continuing to make science news, and with the search for the so far invisible 'dark matter' of the universe a continual preoccupation, physicists from different walks of life (solid state, low temperature, particles, astrophysics) gathered at a workshop on low temperature devices for the detection of neutrinos and dark matter, held from 12-13 March at Ringberg Castle on Lake Tegernsee in the Bavarian Alps, and organized by the Max Planck Institute for Physics and Astrophysics in Munich.

  9. Life In The Universe!

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    An alien invasion of CERN? Is there life elsewhere in the Universe? Are we alone? These questions have always fascinated humanity and for more than 30 years, physicists, biologists, chemists, cosmologists and astronomers have worked tirelessly to answer these questions. Yet just this past week at CERN students from all over Europe came to present their ideas on the subject and listen to the latest on extraterrestrial life from some of the world's most prestigious researchers. Students participating in the programme were encouraged to present their views on extraterrestrial life creatively and boy did they! The team from Portugal ran performances of Greek Theatre, the team from Hungary created a board game, while the team from Belgium recited poetry questioning the existence of extraterrestrials. But all was not light hearted, there were touching presentations of violin and piano by the French team and a very thought provoking theatre performance by the German team contrasting the search for extraterrestrial...

  10. Carl Sagan and Joseph Shklovsky: Intelligent Life in the Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt, Vladimir

    J. S. Shklovsky and Carl Sagan played an outstanding role in modern astronomy. Their names are well known not only to professional astronomers, but also to millions of educated people in many countries, which are interested in modern state of science research. Among these trends of modern science, which are difficult to define, are such problems, as the creation of Solar system, the origin of life on Earth, the evolution of living organisms on Earth from the simplest viruses to Homo Sapiens, the evolution of intelligence and technology. Finally, both outstanding scientists were deeply interested in the problem of SETI (Search Extraterrestrial Intelligence), i.e. search of extraterrestrial civilizations and methods of making contacts with them. And both scientists were high professionals in their fields. Joseph Shklovsky was a theoretical astronomer in all fields of modern astronomy (geophysics and physics of the upper atmosphere of the Earth, Sun and Solar Corona, Interplanetary Medium and Solar Wind, Interstellar Medium, Supernova and their remnants, the Galaxy and galaxies, Quasars and Cosmology). There is hardly a field in modern astrophysics (except perhaps the theory of the interior structure of stars), where Joseph Shklovsky has not l a bright stamp of his talent…

  11. Keynote Symposium for the Open Day Celebrations

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    CERN scientists probe ever-deeper levels of matter and their interactions, but can we say that the patterns they see are truly fundamental? Does the universe obey the same laws throughout? Since mathematical constructions can be true in the absence of any relation to the physical world, is mathematics more fundamental than physics? Extraterrestrial life would probably look much different from that on Earth, but natural selection still be fundamental to their evolution? Leading thinkers from a variety of subjects will explore the question of what is fundamental in a symposium at CERN. Richard Dawkins will speak on biology, Gerard ‘t Hooft will focus on physics, and Alain Connes will discuss mathematics; a leading computer scientist is also scheduled to speak. 15 October, 14:00 to 17:00 CERN Auditorium, Bldg. 500 Entrance free

  12. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 8, no. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-03-01

    This newsletter contains reports on: 'The ITER management advisory committee (MAC) meeting in Cadarache' and on 'ITER technical advisory committee meeting at Garching'. It contains photos of the participants of both meetings

  13. PHYSICS

    CERN Multimedia

    P. Sphicas

    There have been three physics meetings since the last CMS week: “physics days” on March 27-29, the Physics/ Trigger week on April 23-27 and the most recent physics days on May 22-24. The main purpose of the March physics days was to finalize the list of “2007 analyses”, i.e. the few topics that the physics groups will concentrate on for the rest of this calendar year. The idea is to carry out a full physics exercise, with CMSSW, for select physics channels which test key features of the physics objects, or represent potential “day 1” physics topics that need to be addressed in advance. The list of these analyses was indeed completed and presented in the plenary meetings. As always, a significant amount of time was also spent in reviewing the status of the physics objects (reconstruction) as well as their usage in the High-Level Trigger (HLT). The major event of the past three months was the first “Physics/Trigger week” in Apri...

  14. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  15. Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erie Febrian

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006 framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1, GARCH(3,1, and GARCH (1,1, respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.

  16. An empirical analysis of freight rate and vessel price volatility transmission in global dry bulk shipping market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Dai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Global dry bulk shipping market is an important element of global economy and trade. Since newbuilding and secondhand vessels are often traded as assets and the freight rate is the key determinant of vessel price, it is important for shipping market participants to understand the market dynamics and price transmission mechanism over time to make suitable strategic decisions. To address this issue, a multi-variate GARCH model was applied in this paper to explore the volatility spillover effects across the vessel markets (including newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets and freight market. Specifically, the BEKK parameterization of the multi-variate GARCH model (BEKK GARCH was proposed to capture the volatility transmission effect from the freight market, newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets in the global dry bulk shipping industry. Empirical results reveal that significant volatility transmission effects exist in each market sector, i.e. capesize, panamax, handymax and handysize. Besides, the market volatility transmission mechanism varies among different vessel types. Moreover, some bilateral effects are found in the dry bulk shipping market, showing that lagged variances could affect the current variance in a counterpart market, regardless of the volatility transmission. A simple ratio is proposed to guide investors optimizing their portfolio allocations. The findings in this paper could provide unique insights for investors to understand the market and hedge their portfolios well.

  17. Spillover Volatilitas Pasar Saham Indonesia dan Singapura Periode 2001-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lestano Lestano

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Using an Autoregressive model combined with a univariate Exponential GARCH model for constructing a volatility spillover model, we investigate asymmetric effect and volatility persistence effect in Indonesia and Singapore stock market, and the effect of volatility spillover from Singapore stock market considered as one of Asian financial activity center to Indonesia stock market during the post Asian financial crisis period. The study reveals that the degree of volatility persistence slightly increases as we include the spillover effect from Singapura as one extra variable in the variance equation. We also find that strong evidence of volatility spillover effect from Singapore to Indonesia stock market. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia: Autoregressive model yang dikombinasikan dengan univariate Exponential GARCH model digunakan untuk mengkonstruksi model spillover volatilitas, tulisan ini mengkaji asymmetric effect dan efek persistensi volatilitas pasar saham di Indonesia dan Singapura, dan efek spillover volatilitas dari pasar saham Singapura, yang dipertimbangkan sebagai salah satu pusat kegiatan keuangan Asia, ke pasar saham Indonesia selama periode setelah krisis keuangan Asia. Studi ini mengungkapkan bahwa tingkat persistensi volatilitas meningkat saat spillover effect dari Singapura dimasukan sebagai variabel tambahan ke dalam persamaan variance. Temuan empiris lain adalah terdapat fakta kuat keberadaan efek spillover volatilitas dari pasar saham Singapura ke Indonesia.   Kata kunci: Spillover volatilitas, asymmetric effect, leverage effect, exponential GARCH, pasar saham, Indonesia, Singapura

  18. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  19. Medusa-Isosampler: A modular, network-based observatory system for combined physical, chemical and microbiological monitoring, sampling and incubation of hydrothermal and cold seep fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, A.; Flynn, M.; Taylor, P.

    2004-12-01

    The study of life in extreme environments provides an important context from which we can undertake the search for extraterrestrial life, and through which we can better understand biogeochemical feedback in terrestrial hydrothermal and cold seep systems. The Medusa-Isosampler project is aimed at fundamental research into understanding the potential for, and limits to, chemolithoautotrophic life, i.e. primary production without photosynthesis. One environment that might foster such life is associated with the high thermal and chemical gradient environment of hydrothermal vent structures. Another is associated with the lower thermal and chemical gradient environment of continental margin cold seeps. Under NERC, NASA and industrial support, we have designed a flexible instrumentation system, operating as networked, autonomous modules on a local area network, that will make possible simultaneous physical and chemical sampling and monitoring of hydrothermal and cold seep fluids, and the in situ and laboratory incubation of chemosynthetic microbes under high pressure, isobaric conditions. The system has been designed with long-term observatory operations in mind, and may be reconfigured dynamically as the requirements of the observatory installation change. The modular design will also accommodate new in situ chemical and biosensor technologies, provided by third parties. The system may be configured for seafloor use, and can be adapted to use in IODP boreholes. Our overall project goals are provide an instrumentation system capable of probing both high and low-gradient water-rock systems for chemolithoautotrophic biospheres, to identify the physical and chemical conditions that define these microhabitats and explore the details of the biogeochemical feedback loops that mediate these microhabitats, and to attempt to culture and identify chemolithoautotrophic microbial communities that might exist there. The Medusa-Isosampler system has been produced and is now

  20. CERN Physics Screen Saver: Help LHC tracking studies on your PC

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    Many PC users are familiar with screensavers such as SETI@home and FightAIDS@home. These screensavers take advantage of times when your PC is idle to do useful computing on a particular scientific problem. SETI@home, which analyses radio-astronomy data for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence, has been downloaded by over 5 million people. Similar programs are now sold commercially, and installed in major corporations to provide extra computing power at low cost. CERN 's IT Department is interested in evaluating this sort of technology for the future. Most of the scientific computing challenges that the LHC experiments are facing will require access to large amounts of storage, and cannot be run on individual PCs. However, there are exceptions. A program called SixTrack, which simulates particles traveling around the LHC to study the stability of their orbits, can fit on a single PC and requires relatively little input or output. SixTrack, which was developed by Frank Schmidt of the AB Department, produces r...

  1. Employment of security personnel of a security service company does not need approval by the works council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    If a company or institution hires personnel of a security service company to protect its premises, this kind of employment does not mean the company carries on temporary employment business. Within the purview of section 99, sub-secion 1 of the BetrVG (Works Constitution Act), the security service personnel is not 'employed' in the proper sense even if the security tasks fulfilled by them are done at other times by regular employees of the company or institution. The court decision also decided that the Works Council need not give consent to employment of foreign security personnel. The court decision was taken for settlement of court proceedings commenced by Institute of Plasma Physics in Garching. (Federal Labour Court, decision dated November 28, 1989 - 1 ABR 90/88). (orig./HP) [de

  2. Physics in Brazil in the next decade: atomic, molecular and optical physics, biological, chemical and medical physics, physics teaching and plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This is an overview of physics in Brazil in the next decade. It is specially concerned with atomic, molecular and optical physics, biological chemical and medical physics, and also teaching of physics and plasma physics. It presents the main research groups in Brazil in the above mentioned areas. It talks as well, about financing new projects and the costs involved to improve these areas. (A.C.A.S.)

  3. Spring meeting of the scientific associations for atomic physics, high speed physics, mass spectrometry, molecular physics, plasma physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The volume contains the abstracts of the contributions to the Spring Meeting in Rostock with aspects of atomic physics, molecular physics, high speed physics, plasma physics and mass spectrometry. (MM)

  4. Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fenghua Wen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the stock market as a whole object, we assume that prior losses and gains are two different factors that can influence risk preference separately. The two factors are introduced as separate explanatory variables into the time-varying GARCH-M (TVRA-GARCH-M model. Then, we redefine prior losses and gains by selecting different reference point to study investors’ time-varying risk preference. The empirical evidence shows that investors’ risk preference is time varying and is influenced by previous outcomes; the stock market as a whole exhibits house money effect; that is, prior gains can decrease investors’ risk aversion while prior losses increase their risk aversion. Besides, different reference points selected by investors will cause different valuation of prior losses and gains, thus affecting investors’ risk preference.

  5. Modelling conditional correlations of asset returns: A smooth transition approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of ve...

  6. Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...

  7. Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Model by Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. We perform the HMC simulations of the SV model for two liquid stock returns traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and measure the volatilities of those stock returns. Then we calculate the accuracy of the volatility measurement using the realized volatility as a proxy of the true volatility and compare the SV model with the GARCH model which is one of other volatility models. Using the accuracy calculated with the realized volatility we find that empirically the SV model performs better than the GARCH model.

  8. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  9. Dynamic Value at Risk: A Comparative Study Between Heteroscedastic Models and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lamartine Távora Junior

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper was to analyze the risk management of a portfolio composed by Petrobras PN, Telemar PN and Vale do Rio Doce PNA stocks. It was verified if the modeling of Value-at-Risk (VaR through the place Monte Carlo simulation with volatility of GARCH family is supported by hypothesis of efficient market. The results have shown that the statistic evaluation in inferior to dynamics, evidencing that the dynamic analysis supplies support to the hypothesis of efficient market of the Brazilian share holding market, in opposition of some empirical evidences. Also, it was verified that the GARCH models of volatility is enough to accommodate the variations of the shareholding Brazilian market, since the model is capable to accommodate the great dynamic of the Brazilian market.

  10. A comparison of physical self-concept between physical education and non-physical education university students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid ARAZI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to compare physical self-concept between physical education and non-physical education university students. The target population of this study was all male and female physical education and non-physical education university students in Rasht city of Iran. After translating the Physical Self-Description Questionnaire (PSDQ and adjusting some of the questions, the questionnaire was evaluated by the specialists in the context of validity and the reliability achieved by test-retest (Cronbach Alpha value of 0.84. We then, according to the Odineski table selected 180 physical education and non-physical education males and 190 physical education and non-physical education females opportunistically. The collected data was analyzed by 2×2 MANOVA for determine differences between genders and major. The results showed mean vector scores of physical education in the following scales: physical activity; global physical; competence; sports; strength; endurance and flexibility were significantly (p<0.05 higher than that of non-physical education major students. Also, the results shows that mean vector scores of male in the following scales: health; coordination; physical activity; body fat; global physical; competence; sports; global physical self-concept and global esteem were significantly (p<0.05 higher than female. Based on the result of our study the physical self-concept non-physical education and female is lower, than that physical education and male. The results may reflect that male and physical major education students, who usually spend more time on physical activity and sport training to have better fitness and skill oriented self concept than their counterparts.

  11. Asteroids and Archaean crustal evolution: Tests of possible genetic links between major mantle/crust melting events and clustered extraterrestrial bombardments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glikson, A. Y.

    1992-01-01

    Since the oldest intact terrestrial rocks of ca. 4.0 Ga and oldest zircon xenocrysts of ca. 4.3 Ga measured to date overlap with the lunar late heavy bombardment, the early Precambrian record requires close reexamination vis a vis the effects of megaimpacts. The identification of microtektite-bearing horizons containing spinals of chondritic chemistry and Ir anomalies in 3.5-3.4-Ga greenstone belts provides the first direct evidence for large-scale Archaean impacts. The Archaean crustal record contains evidence for several major greenstone-granite-forming episodes where deep upwelling and adiabatic fusion of the mantle was accompanied by contemporaneous crustal anatexis. Isotopic age studies suggest evidence for principal age clusters about 3.5, 3.0, and 2.7 (+/- 0.8) Ga, relics of a ca. 3.8-Ga event, and several less well defined episodes. These peak events were accompanied and followed by protracted thermal fluctuations in intracrustal high-grade metamorphic zones. Interpretations of these events in terms of internal dynamics of the Earth are difficult to reconcile with the thermal behavior of silicate rheologies in a continuously convecting mantle regime. A triggering of these episodes by mantle rebound response to intermittent extraterrestrial asteroid impacts is supported by (1) identification of major Archaean impacts from microtektite and distal ejecta horizons marked by Ir anomalies; (2) geochemical and experimental evidence for mantle upwelling, possibly from levels as deep as the transition zone; and (3) catastrophic adiabatic melting required to generate peridotitic komatites. Episodic differentiation/accretion growth of sial consequent on these events is capable of resolving the volume problem that arises from comparisons between modern continental crust and the estimated sial produced by continuous two-stage mantle melting processes. The volume problem is exacerbated by projected high accretion rates under Archaean geotherms. It is suggested that

  12. The meaning of liberty beyond earth

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to initiate a new discussion on liberty focusing on the infinite realms of space. The discussion of the nature of liberty and what it means for a human to be free has occupied the minds of thinkers since the Enlightenment. However, without exception, every one of these discussions has focused on the character of liberty on the Earth.The emergence of human space exploration programs in the last 40-50 years raise a fundamental and new question: what will be the future of liberty in space? This book takes the discussion of liberty into the extraterrestrial environment. In this book, new questions will be addressed such as: Can a person be free when the oxygen the individual breathes is the result of a manufacturing process controlled by someone else? Will the interdependence required to survive in the extremities of the extraterrestrial environment destroy individualism? What are the obligations of the individual to the extraterrestrial state? How can we talk of extraterrestrial li...

  13. PHYSICS

    CERN Multimedia

    J. Incandela

    There have been numerous developments in the physics area since the September CMS week. The biggest single event was the Physics/Trigger week in the end of Octo¬ber, whereas in terms of ongoing activities the “2007 analyses” went into high gear. This was in parallel with participation in CSA07 by the physics groups. On the or¬ganizational side, the new conveners of the physics groups have been selected, and a new database for man¬aging physics analyses has been deployed. Physics/Trigger week The second Physics-Trigger week of 2007 took place during the week of October 22-26. The first half of the week was dedicated to working group meetings. The ple¬nary Joint Physics-Trigger meeting took place on Wednesday afternoon and focused on the activities of the new Trigger Studies Group (TSG) and trigger monitoring. Both the Physics and Trigger organizations are now focused on readiness for early data-taking. Thus, early trigger tables and preparations for calibr...

  14. PHYSICS

    CERN Multimedia

    P. Sphicas

    The CPT project came to an end in December 2006 and its original scope is now shared among three new areas, namely Computing, Offline and Physics. In the physics area the basic change with respect to the previous system (where the PRS groups were charged with detector and physics object reconstruction and physics analysis) was the split of the detector PRS groups (the old ECAL-egamma, HCAL-jetMET, Tracker-btau and Muons) into two groups each: a Detector Performance Group (DPG) and a Physics Object Group. The DPGs are now led by the Commissioning and Run Coordinator deputy (Darin Acosta) and will appear in the correspond¬ing column in CMS bulletins. On the physics side, the physics object groups are charged with the reconstruction of physics objects, the tuning of the simulation (in collaboration with the DPGs) to reproduce the data, the provision of code for the High-Level Trigger, the optimization of the algorithms involved for the different physics analyses (in collaboration with the analysis gr...

  15. Inelastic neutron scattering and lattice dynamics of ZrO2, Y2O3 and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Lichtenbergstr 1, 85747 Garching, Germany. *Corresponding ... rials are of interest as they exhibit numerous interesting phase transitions at high temper- ature and ... Final energy of the neutrons were analysed using a Be-filter. The phonon ...

  16. Multivariate Variance Targeting in the BEKK-GARCH Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By de…nition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modi…ed like- lihood function, or estimating function, corresponding...

  17. Multivariate Variance Targeting in the BEKK-GARCH Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By definition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modified likelihood function, or estimating function, corresponding...

  18. Multivariate Variance Targeting in the BEKK-GARCH Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By de…nition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modi…ed likelihood function, or estimating function, corresponding...

  19. Geochemistry of biomolecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, J.

    1976-01-01

    A highly sensitive fluorometric technique is developed for the determination of biological and geo-organic compounds in ancient sediments and extraterrestrial samples. This technique is used to establish chemical evidence for fossil pigments in an extraterrestrial sample. Also developed is a highly sensitive and specific fluorometric method for the determination of total primary amine nitrogen in soil samples.

  20. Theoretical physics 8 statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Nolting, Wolfgang

    2018-01-01

    This textbook offers a clear and comprehensive introduction to statistical physics, one of the core components of advanced undergraduate physics courses. It follows on naturally from the previous volumes in this series, using methods of probability theory and statistics to solve physical problems. The first part of the book gives a detailed overview on classical statistical physics and introduces all mathematical tools needed. The second part of the book covers topics related to quantized states, gives a thorough introduction to quantum statistics, followed by a concise treatment of quantum gases. Ideally suited to undergraduate students with some grounding in quantum mechanics, the book is enhanced throughout with learning features such as boxed inserts and chapter summaries, with key mathematical derivations highlighted to aid understanding. The text is supported by numerous worked examples and end of chapter problem sets. About the Theoretical Physics series Translated from the renowned and highly successf...

  1. Astronomers Reveal Extinct Extra-Terrestrial Fusion Reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    improve our understanding of the life-cycle of stars.' The Chandra X-ray data also reveal the signatures of neon, an expected by-product of helium fusion. However, a big surprise was the presence of magnesium in similar quantities. This result may provide a key to the unique composition of H1504+65 and validate theoretical predictions that, if massive enough, some stars can extend their lives by tapping yet another energy source: the fusion of carbon into magnesium. However, as magnesium can also be produced by helium fusion, proof of the theory is not yet ironclad. The final link in the puzzle would be the detection of sodium, which will require data from yet another observatory: the Hubble Space Telescope. The team has already been awarded time on the Hubble Space Telescope to search for sodium in H1504+65 next year, and will, hopefully, discover the final answer as to the origin of this unique star. This work will be published in July in the 'Astronomy & Astrophysics' journal. The Chandra X-ray Observatory and the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) were both launched into orbit by NASA in 1999. Their instruments make use of a technique called spectroscopy, which spreads the light obtained from astronomical objects into its constituent X-ray and ultraviolet 'colours', in the same way visible light is dispersed into a rainbow naturally, by water droplets in the atmosphere, or artificially, by a prism. When studied in fine detail each spectrum is a unique 'fingerprint' which tells us what elements are present and reveals the physical conditions in the object being studied. Related Internet Address http://www.ras.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=673&Itemid=2

  2. Performance testing of a novel off-plane reflection grating and silicon pore optic spectrograph at PANTER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlowe, Hannah; McEntaffer, Randall L.; Allured, Ryan; DeRoo, Casey; Miles, Drew M.; Donovan, Benjamin D.; Tutt, James H.; Burwitz, Vadim; Menz, Benedikt; Hartner, Gisela D.; Smith, Randall K.; Günther, Ramses; Yanson, Alex; Vacanti, Giuseppe; Ackermann, Marcelo

    2015-05-01

    An X-ray spectrograph consisting of aligned, radially ruled off-plane reflection gratings and silicon pore optics (SPO) was tested at the Max Planck Institute for extraterrestrial Physics PANTER X-ray test facility. The SPO is a test module for the proposed Arcus mission, which will also feature aligned off-plane reflection gratings. This test is the first time two off-plane gratings were actively aligned to each other and with a SPO to produce an overlapped spectrum. We report the performance of the complete spectrograph utilizing the aligned gratings module and plans for future development.

  3. Is Humanity Doomed? Insights from Astrobiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Astrobiology, the study of life in the universe, offers profound insights into human sustainability. However, astrobiology is commonly neglected in sustainability research. This paper develops three topics connecting astrobiology to sustainability: constraints on what zones in the universe are habitable, the absence of observations of extraterrestrial civilizations, and the physical fate of the universe. These topics have major implications for our thinking and action on sustainability. While we may not be doomed, we must take certain actions to sustain ourselves in this universe. The topics also suggest that our current sustainability efforts may be of literally galactic importance.

  4. Influence of Physical Activity on Students' Physical Self-Concept and Satisfaction with Life: Physical and Non-Physical Education Students' Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    MEHDINEZHAD, Vali; GOLSANAMLOU, Masoumeh

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to find out the physical and non-physical education students' physical self-concept and satisfaction with life. 470 students were selected randomly as two sample groups (physical and non-physical education students). The valid sample of study was 449. The two questionnaires employed here were the Physical Self-Description Questionnaire (PSDQ-S) and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. SPSS 20 was used to produce the Mean; Standard Deviations; Pearson's Pro...

  5. True or spurious long memory in volatility: Further evidence on the energy futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charfeddine, Lanouar

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether the long memory behavior observed in many volatility energy futures markets series is a spurious behavior or not. For this purpose, we employ a wide variety of advanced volatility models that allow for long memory and/or structural changes: the GARCH(1,1), the FIGARCH(1,d,1), the Adaptative-GARCH(1,1,k), and the Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) models. To compare forecasting ability of these models, we use out-of-sample forecasting performance. Using the crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and propane volatility futures energy time series with 1-month and 3-month maturities, we found that five out of the eight time series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. For these series, dates of breaks coincide with some major economics and financial events. For the three other time series, we found strong evidence of long memory in volatility. - Highlights: • This paper investigates the long memory properties of the futures energy volatility. • We estimate a variety of GARCH-class of models. • The Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) model has been used to account for both long memory and breaks. • 5 out of the 8 futures energy series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. • The 3 other series are characterized by only long range dependence in volatility

  6. Assessing extraterrestrial regolith material simulants for in-situ resource utilization based 3D printing

    OpenAIRE

    Goulas, A; Binner, JGP; Harris, RA; Friel, RJ

    2017-01-01

    This research paper investigates the suitability of ceramic multi-component materials, which are found on the Martian and Lunar surfaces, for 3D printing (aka Additive Manufacturing) of solid structures. 3D printing is a promising solution as part of the cutting edge field of future in situ space manufacturing applications. 3D printing of physical assets from simulated Martian and Lunar regolith was successfully performed during this work by utilising laser-based powder bed fusion equipment. ...

  7. Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

  8. Generalized Fractional Processes with Long Memory and Time Dependent Volatility Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shelton Peiris

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, fractionally-differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to their flexibility in financial applications with long-memory. This paper revisits the class of generalized fractionally-differenced processes generated by Gegenbauer polynomials and the ARMA structure (GARMA with both the long-memory and time-dependent innovation variance. We establish the existence and uniqueness of second-order solutions. We also extend this family with innovations to follow GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV. Under certain regularity conditions, we give asymptotic results for the approximate maximum likelihood estimator for the GARMA-GARCH model. We discuss a Monte Carlo likelihood method for the GARMA-SV model and investigate finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of this approach using monthly inflation rates for France, Japan and the United States.

  9. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cotter, John [Centre for Financial Markets, School of Business, University College Dublin, Blackrock, Co. Dublin (Ireland); Hanly, Jim [School of Accounting and Finance, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin 2 (Ireland)

    2010-03-15

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  10. Time-varying risk aversion. An application to energy hedging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim

    2010-01-01

    Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison. (author)

  11. A forecast comparison of volatility models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger

    2005-01-01

    We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM-$ exchange rate data and IBM return data, where the latter is based on a new data set of realized variance. We find no evidence that a GARCH(1,1) is outpe......We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM-$ exchange rate data and IBM return data, where the latter is based on a new data set of realized variance. We find no evidence that a GARCH(1...... snooping (RC). Our empirical results show that the RC lacks power to an extent that makes it unable to distinguish "good" and "bad" models in our analysis....

  12. Energy of Extra-Terrestrial Civilizations according to Evo-SETI Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maccone, Claudio

    2018-03-01

    Consider two great scientists of the past: Kepler (1571-1630) and Newton (1642-1727). Kepler discovered his three laws of planetary motion by observing Mars: he knew experimentally that his three laws were correct, but he didn't even suspect that all three mathematical laws could be derived as purely mathematical consequences by a "superior" mathematical law. The latter was the Law of Gravitation that Newton gave the world together with his supreme mathematical discovery of the Calculus, necessary for that mathematical derivation. We think we did the same for the "molecular clock", the experimental law of genetics discovered in 1962 by Émile Zuckerkandl (1922-2013) and Linus Pauling (1901-1994) and derived by us as a purely mathematical consequence of our mathematical Evo-SETI Theory. Let us now summarize how this mathematical derivation was achieved. Darwinian evolution over the last 3.5 billion years was an increase in the number of living species from one (RNA ?) to the current (say) 50 million. This increasing trend in time looks like being exponential, but one may not assume an exact exponential curve since many species went extinct in the past, especially in the five, big mass extinctions. Thus, the simple exponential curve must be replaced by a stochastic process having an exponential mean value. Borrowing from financial mathematics (the "Black-Sholes models"), this "exponential" stochastic process is called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Its probability density function (pdf) is a lognormal (and not a Gaussian) (Proof: see Ref. [3], Chapter 30, and Ref. [4], and, more in general, refs. [2] and [5]). Lognormal also is the pdf of the statistical number of communicating ExtraTerrestrial (ET) civilizations in the Galaxy at a certain fixed time, like a snapshot: this result was obtained in 2008 by this author as his solution to the Statistical Drake Equation of SETI (Proof: see Ref. [1]). Thus, the GBM of Darwinian evolution may also be regarded as the

  13. Terrestrial and extraterrestrial fullerenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heymann, D.; Jenneskens, L.W.; Jehlicka, J; Koper, C.; Vlietstra, E. [Rice Univ, Houston, TX (United States). Dept. of Earth Science

    2003-07-01

    This paper reviews reports of occurrences of fullerenes in circumstellar media, interstellar media, meteorites, interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), lunar rocks, hard terrestrial rocks from Shunga (Russia), Sudbury (Canada) and Mitov (Czech Republic), coal, terrestrial sediments from the Cretaceous-Tertiary-Boundary and Pennian-Triassic-Boundary, fulgurite, ink sticks, dinosaur eggs, and a tree char. The occurrences are discussed in the context of known and postulated processes of fullerene formation, including the suggestion that some natural fullerenes might have formed from biological (algal) remains.

  14. Physics For All -- yes, it's real physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenkraft, Arthur

    2012-02-01

    Can ``all'' students learn ``real'' physics? We want to provide instruction to a wider segment of the population including those students who will not go into STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) careers. We also want to maintain the integrity of physics, challenge all students, and not compromise the rigor of our courses. Accomplishing this requires a research guided approach to instruction, curriculum and assessment. Physics First and Physics for All have become a success story for thousands of students in urban, suburban, and rural districts. At the same time, the International Physics Olympiad and other competitions have raised the expectation of what the most motivated students can achieve. Many physics educators are exploring ways to set higher goals for our most gifted students while also providing physics instruction to students previously excluded from our physics classes. Many of the same issues that K-12 educators are struggling with are equally important to the college community as colleges try to educate both future physicists and an educated citizenry. Great novels and symphonies are accessible to people of different backgrounds and levels of expertise. We should develop strategies that enable us to share an understanding of physics with all students because everyone deserves an opportunity to reflect on the wondrous workings of our universe.

  15. Data acquisition and real-time bolometer tomography using LabVIEW RT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannone, L.; Eich, T.; Fuchs, J.C.; Ravindran, M.; Ruan, Q.; Wenzel, L.; Cerna, M.; Concezzi, S.

    2011-01-01

    The currently available multi-core PCI Express systems running LabVIEW RT (real-time), equipped with FPGA cards for data acquisition and real-time parallel signal processing, greatly shorten the design and implementation cycles of large-scale, real-time data acquisition and control systems. This paper details a data acquisition and real-time tomography system using LabVIEW RT for the bolometer diagnostic on the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak (Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Garching, Germany). The transformation matrix for tomography is pre-computed based on the geometry of distributed radiation sources and sensors. A parallelized iterative algorithm is adapted to solve a constrained linear system for the reconstruction of the radiated power density. Real-time bolometer tomography is performed with LabVIEW RT. Using multi-core machines to execute the parallelized algorithm, a cycle time well below 1 ms is reached.

  16. Introduction to Space Resource Mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Robert P.

    2013-01-01

    There are vast amounts of resources in the solar system that will be useful to humans in space and possibly on Earth. None of these resources can be exploited without the first necessary step of extra-terrestrial mining. The necessary technologies for tele-robotic and autonomous mining have not matured sufficiently yet. The current state of technology was assessed for terrestrial and extraterrestrial mining and a taxonomy of robotic space mining mechanisms was presented which was based on current existing prototypes. Terrestrial and extra-terrestrial mining methods and technologies are on the cusp of massive changes towards automation and autonomy for economic and safety reasons. It is highly likely that these industries will benefit from mutual cooperation and technology transfer.

  17. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 5, no. 8

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    This issue of the Newsletter on the Engineering Design Activities (EDA) for the ITER Tokamak project contains a report on the divertor remote handling development (and of a summer party at the ITER Joint Work Site in Garching, Germany)

  18. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 8, no. 8

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-08-01

    This ITER EDA newsletter reports on the programme directors meeting of 28-29 July 1999, the Snowmass Fusion Summer Study Group workshop and the ITER Management Advisory Committee meeting in Garching. Individual abstracts are prepared for the 3 meetings

  19. ITER EDA newsletter. V. 5, no. 8

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-08-01

    This issue of the Newsletter on the Engineering Design Activities (EDA) for the ITER Tokamak project contains a report on the divertor remote handling development (and of a summer party at the ITER Joint Work Site in Garching, Germany).

  20. Astrobiology, space and the future age of discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumberg, Baruch S

    2011-02-13

    Astrobiology is the study of the origins, evolution, distribution and future of life in the Universe, and specifically seeks to understand the origin of life and to test the hypothesis that life exists elsewhere than on Earth. There is a general mathematics, physics and chemistry; that is, scientific laws that obtain on Earth also do so elsewhere. Is there a general biology? Is the Universe life-rich or is Earth an isolated island of biology? Exploration in the Age of Enlightenment required the collection of data in unexplored regions and the use of induction and empiricism to derive models and natural laws. The current search for extra-terrestrial life has a similar goal, but with a much greater amount of data and with computers to help with management, correlations, pattern recognition and analysis. There are 60 active space missions, many of them aiding in the search for life. There is not a universally accepted definition of life, but there are a series of characteristics that can aid in the identification of life elsewhere. The study of locations on Earth with similarities to early Mars and other space objects could provide a model that can be used in the search for extra-terrestrial life.

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