WorldWideScience

Sample records for extinction risk electronic

  1. Extinction risk of soil biota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veresoglou, Stavros D; Halley, John M; Rillig, Matthias C

    2015-11-23

    No species lives on earth forever. Knowing when and why species go extinct is crucial for a complete understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic activity, and its impact on ecosystem functioning. Even though soil biota play a key role in maintaining the functioning of ecosystems, the vast majority of existing studies focus on aboveground organisms. Many questions about the fate of belowground organisms remain open, so the combined effort of theorists and applied ecologists is needed in the ongoing development of soil extinction ecology.

  2. Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Timothy C; Ferreira, Sam M

    2016-08-01

    We develop a risk intelligence system for biodiversity enterprises. Such enterprises depend on a supply of endangered species for their revenue. Many of these enterprises, however, cannot purchase a supply of this resource and are largely unable to secure the resource against theft in the form of poaching. Because replacements are not available once a species becomes extinct, insurance products are not available to reduce the risk exposure of these enterprises to an extinction event. For many species, the dynamics of anthropogenic impacts driven by economic as well as noneconomic values of associated wildlife products along with their ecological stressors can help meaningfully predict extinction risks. We develop an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model that captures these effects and apply it to the case of South African rhinos. Our model uses observed rhino dynamics and poaching statistics. It seeks to predict rhino extinction under the present scenario. This scenario has no legal horn trade, but allows live African rhino trade and legal hunting. Present rhino populations are small and threatened by a rising onslaught of poaching. This present scenario and associated dynamics predicts continued decline in rhino population size with accelerated extinction risks of rhinos by 2036. Our model supports the computation of extinction risks at any future time point. This capability can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservation strategies at reducing a species' extinction risk. Models used to compute risk predictions, however, need to be statistically estimated. We point out that statistically fitting such models to observations will involve massive numbers of observations on consumer behavior and time-stamped location observations on thousands of animals. Finally, we propose Big Data algorithms to perform such estimates and to interpret the fitted model's output.

  3. Elevational distribution and extinction risk in birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel L White

    Full Text Available Mountainous regions are hotspots of terrestrial biodiversity. Unlike islands, which have been the focus of extensive research on extinction dynamics, fewer studies have examined mountain ranges even though they face increasing threats from human pressures - notably habitat conversion and climate change. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent and resolution of previously available information have precluded an explicit assessment of the relative role of elevational distribution in determining extinction risk. We use a new global species-level avian database to quantify the influence of elevational distribution (range, maximum and midpoint on extinction risk in birds at the global scale. We also tested this relationship within biogeographic realms, higher taxonomic levels, and across phylogenetic contrasts. Potential confounding variables (i.e. phylogenetic, distributional, morphological, life history and niche breadth were also tested and controlled for. We show that the three measures of elevational distribution are strong negative predictors of avian extinction risk, with elevational range comparable and complementary to that of geographical range size. Extinction risk was also found to be positively associated with body weight, development and adult survival, but negatively associated with reproduction and niche breadth. The robust and consistent findings from this study demonstrate the importance of elevational distribution as a key driver of variation in extinction dynamics in birds. Our results also highlight elevational distribution as a missing criterion in current schemes for quantifying extinction risk and setting species conservation priorities in birds. Further research is recommended to test for generality across non-avian taxa, which will require an advance in our knowledge of species' current elevational ranges and increased efforts to digitise and centralise such data.

  4. Inferring modern extinction risk from fossil occupancy trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiessling, Wolfgang; Kocsis, Adam

    2016-04-01

    Besides providing information on ancient mass extinctions and intrinsic extinction risk, the fossil record may also provide useful data for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Here we analyse the palaeontological trajectories of geographical occupancy in extant marine species to identify species that have been declining over geological time scales and may thus be more prone to extinction than expanding species. The slopes of these occupancy trajectories are used to categorize evolutionary extinction risk. Mapping the risk at global scale we find that low to mid latitude regions are at significantly higher risk than high latitude regions. We also find a moderate correspondence between high extinction risk on geological time scales and modern extinction risk for reef corals and propose to add fossil data to the assessment of current extinction risk, especially for the notoriously data deficient marine taxa.

  5. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody; Eager, Heidi;

    2014-01-01

    Many of the world's languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk-represented by small...

  6. Minimizing extinction risk through genetic rescue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waite, T. A.

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available According to the genetic rescue hypothesis, immigrants can improve population persistence through their genetic contribution alone. We investigate the potential for such rescue using small, inbred laboratory populations of the bean beetle (Callosobruchus maculatus. We ask how many migrants per generation (MPG are needed to minimize the genetic component of extinction risk. During Phase 1, population size was made to fluctuate between 6 and 60 (for 10 generations. During this phase, we manipulated the number of MPG, replacing 0, 1, 3, or 5 females every generation with immigrant females. During Phase 2, we simply set an upper limit on population size (.10. Compared with the 0-MPG treatment, the other treatments were equivalently effective at improving reproductive success and reducing extinction risk. A single MPG was sufficient for genetic rescue, apparently because effective migration rate was inflated dramatically during generations when population size was small. An analysis of quasi-extinction suggests that replicate populations in the 1-MPG treatment benefited from initial purging of inbreeding depression. Populations in this treatment performed so well apparently because they received the dual benefit of purging followed by genetic infusion. Our results suggest the need for further evaluation of alternative schemes for genetic rescue.

  7. Predicting extinction risk of Brazilian Atlantic forest angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leão, Tarciso C C; Fonseca, Carlos R; Peres, Carlos A; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2014-10-01

    Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular-based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Modeling Extinction Risk of Endemic Birds of Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youhua Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China was modeled over evolutionary time. Results showed that extinction risk of endemic birds in mainland China always tended to be similar within subclades over the evolutionary time of species divergence, and the overall evolution of extinction risk of species presented a conservatism pattern, as evidenced by the disparity-through-time plot. A constant-rate evolutionary model was the best one to quantify the evolution of extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China. Thus, there was no rate shifting pattern for the evolution of extinction risk of Chinese endemic birds over time. In a summary, extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China is systematically quantified under the evolutionary framework in the present work.

  9. Chemical antipredator defence is linked to higher extinction risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Many attributes of species may be linked to contemporary extinction risk, though some such traits remain untested despite suggestions that they may be important. Here, I test whether a trait associated with higher background extinction rates, chemical antipredator defence, is also associated with current extinction risk, using amphibians as a model system—a group facing global population declines. I find that chemically defended species are approximately 60% more likely to be threatened than species without chemical defence, although the severity of the contemporary extinction risk may not relate to chemical defence. The results confirm that background and contemporary extinction rates can be predicted from the same traits, at least in certain cases. This suggests that associations between extinction risk and phenotypic traits can be temporally stable over long periods. The results also provide novel insights into the relevance of antipredator defences for species subject to conservation concerns. PMID:28018657

  10. Extinction risks from climate change: macroecological and historical insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Roland

    2009-06-09

    Human-induced climate change may threaten a large proportion of Earth's biota, but the uncertainties involved in projecting the future geographical distributions of species make quantitative predictions of extinction risk difficult to make. I discuss how insight from recent advances in macroecology and knowledge about species responses to past climate change can help predict extinction risks more accurately.

  11. A Comprehensive Quantitative Assessment of Bird Extinction Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Nathália Machado; Rafael Dias Loyola

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1) understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2) to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured,...

  12. Human population density and extinction risk in the world's carnivores.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Cardillo

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.

  13. A comprehensive quantitative assessment of bird extinction risk in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathália Machado

    Full Text Available In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1 understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2 to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured, and (3 to quantify how much diversity is currently represented inside protected areas. We modeled the extinction risk of 1557 birds using classification trees and evaluated the relative contribution of each biological feature and external threat in predicting extinction risk. We also quantified the proportion of species and their geographic range currently protected by the network of Brazilian protected areas. The optimal classification tree showed different pathways to bird extinction. Habitat conversion was the most important predictor driving extinction risk though other variables, such as geographic range size, type of habitat, hunting or trapping and trophic guild, were also relevant in our models. Species under higher extinction risk were concentrated mainly in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot and were not quite represented inside protected areas, neither in richness nor range. Predictive models could assist conservation actions, and this study could contribute by highlighting the importance of natural history and ecology in these actions.

  14. Extinction Risks and the Conservation of Madagascar's Reptiles: e100173

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard K B Jenkins; Marcelo F Tognelli; Philip Bowles; Neil Cox; Jason L Brown; Lauren Chan; Franco Andreone; Alain Andriamazava; Raphali R Andriantsimanarilafy; Mirana Anjeriniaina; Parfait Bora; Lee D Brady; Elisoa F Hantalalaina; Frank Glaw; Richard A Griffiths; Craig Hilton-Taylor; Michael Hoffmann; Vineet Katariya; Nirhy H Rabibisoa; Jeannot Rafanomezantsoa; Domoina Rakotomalala; Hery Rakotondravony; Ny A Rakotondrazafy; Johans Ralambonirainy; Jean-Baptiste Ramanamanjato; Herilala Randriamahazo; J Christian Randrianantoandro; Harison H Randrianasolo; Jasmin E Randrianirina; Hiarinirina Randrianizahana; Achille P Raselimanana; Andriambolantsoa Rasolohery; Fanomezana M Ratsoavina; Christopher J Raxworthy; Eric Robsomanitrandrasana; Finoana Rollande; Peter P van Dijk; Anne D Yoder; Miguel Vences

    2014-01-01

    ..., and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises...

  15. Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jenkins, Richard K B; Tognelli, Marcelo F; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H; Randrianirina, Jasmin E; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M; Raxworthy, Christopher J; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P; Yoder, Anne D; Vences, Miguel

    2014-01-01

    ..., and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises...

  16. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    OpenAIRE

    Fisher, Matthew C.; Michael Veith; Susan Walker; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Jaime Bosch; Sebastian Schmidtlein; Jon Bielby; Jos Kielgast; Dennis Rödder; Stefan Lötters

    2009-01-01

    Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

  17. Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-12-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009.

  18. Quantification of habitat fragmentation reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crooks, Kevin R; Burdett, Christopher L; Theobald, David M; King, Sarah R B; Di Marco, Moreno; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

    2017-07-18

    Although habitat fragmentation is often assumed to be a primary driver of extinction, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been consistently quantified for any major animal taxon. We developed high-resolution habitat fragmentation models and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation on the world's terrestrial mammals, including 4,018 species across 26 taxonomic Orders. Results demonstrate that species with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, and most high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Our models provide a quantitative evaluation of extinction risk assessments for species, allow for identification of emerging threats in species not classified as threatened, and provide maps of global hotspots of fragmentation for the world's terrestrial mammals. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide threat assessment and strategic priorities for global mammal conservation.

  19. Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Luke J; Arnold, Christian; Machanda, Zarin; Nunn, Charles L

    2011-04-22

    Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass.

  20. Ecological predictors of extinction risks of endemic mammals of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, You-Hua

    2014-07-01

    In this brief report, we analyzed ecological correlates of risk of extinction for mammals endemic to China using phylogenetic eigenvector methods to control for the effect of phylogenetic inertia. Extinction risks were based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and ecological explanatory attributes that include range size and climatic variables. When the effect of phylogenetic inertia were controlled, climate became the best predictor for quantifying and evaluating extinction risks of endemic mammals in China, accounting for 13% of the total variation. Range size seems to play a trivial role, explaining ~1% of total variation; however, when non-phylogenetic variation partitioning analysis was done, the role of range size then explained 7.4% of total variation. Consequently, phylogenetic inertia plays a substantial role in increasing the explanatory power of range size on the extinction risks of mammals endemic to China. Limitations of the present study are discussed, with a focus on under-represented sampling of endemic mammalian species.

  1. Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin C Harding

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

  2. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  3. Phylogenetic correlates of extinction risk in mammals: species in older lineages are not at greater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verde Arregoitia, Luis Darcy; Blomberg, Simon P; Fisher, Diana O

    2013-08-22

    Phylogenetic information is becoming a recognized basis for evaluating conservation priorities, but associations between extinction risk and properties of a phylogeny such as diversification rates and phylogenetic lineage ages remain unclear. Limited taxon-specific analyses suggest that species in older lineages are at greater risk. We calculate quantitative properties of the mammalian phylogeny and model extinction risk as an ordinal index based on International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List categories. We test for associations between lineage age, clade size, evolutionary distinctiveness and extinction risk for 3308 species of terrestrial mammals. We show no significant global or regional associations, and three significant relationships within taxonomic groups. Extinction risk increases for evolutionarily distinctive primates and decreases with lineage age when lemurs are excluded. Lagomorph species (rabbits, hares and pikas) that have more close relatives are less threatened. We examine the relationship between net diversification rates and extinction risk for 173 genera and find no pattern. We conclude that despite being under-represented in the frequency distribution of lineage ages, species in older, slower evolving and distinct lineages are not more threatened or extinction-prone. Their extinction, however, would represent a disproportionate loss of unique evolutionary history.

  4. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Weinberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Melanie; Morrison, Cheryl; Correa, Matthias Lopez; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-01-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth׳s largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium–thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  5. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  6. Trends in extinction risk for imperiled species in Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett Favaro

    Full Text Available Protecting and promoting recovery of species at risk of extinction is a critical component of biodiversity conservation. In Canada, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC determines whether species are at risk of extinction or extirpation, and has conducted these assessments since 1977. We examined trends in COSEWIC assessments to identify whether at-risk species that have been assessed more than once tended to improve, remain constant, or deteriorate in status, as a way of assessing the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation in Canada. Of 369 species that met our criteria for examination, 115 deteriorated, 202 remained unchanged, and 52 improved in status. Only 20 species (5.4% improved to the point where they were 'not at risk', and five of those were due to increased sampling efforts rather than an increase in population size. Species outcomes were also dependent on the severity of their initial assessment; for example, 47% of species that were initially listed as special concern deteriorated between assessments. After receiving an at-risk assessment by COSEWIC, a species is considered for listing under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA, which is the primary national tool that mandates protection for at-risk species. We examined whether SARA-listing was associated with improved COSEWIC assessment outcomes relative to unlisted species. Of 305 species that had multiple assessments and were SARA-listed, 221 were listed at a level that required identification and protection of critical habitat; however, critical habitat was fully identified for only 56 of these species. We suggest that the Canadian government should formally identify and protect critical habitat, as is required by existing legislation. In addition, our finding that at-risk species in Canada rarely recover leads us to recommend that every effort be made to actively prevent species from becoming at-risk in the first place.

  7. The three-quarter power scaling of extinction risk in Late Pleistocene mammals, and a new theory of the size selectivity of extinction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polishchuk, L.

    2010-01-01

    Questions: What is the pattern of body mass versus extinction risk in the Late Pleistocene extinctions of mammals, both qualitatively and quantitatively? Are there patterns that relate extinction risk to the well-known allometries of body mass with population density or population growth rate?

  8. Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-01-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción Resumen Los índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los

  9. The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin G Boyles

    Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

  10. Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide.

  11. The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation

    OpenAIRE

    Malarz, K.

    2006-01-01

    The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

  12. Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hammill, Edd; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation

  13. Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

    2011-05-07

    Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

  14. Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Marco, Moreno; Collen, Ben; Rondinini, Carlo; Mace, Georgina M

    2015-08-22

    Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential to monitor species' extinction risk. However, the work required to assess extinction risk is intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach to monitoring extinction risk, based on the response of species to external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in the extinction risk of 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 and 2013. Species that moved to lower Red List categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as 'lower risk'; species that stayed in a threatened category, or moved to a higher category of risk, were classified as 'higher risk'. Twenty-four predictor variables were used to predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) and external conditions (human pressure, distribution state and conservation interventions). The model correctly classified up to 90% of all transitions and revealed complex interactions between variables, such as protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. The most important predictors were: past extinction risk, PA extent, geographical range size, body size, taxonomic family and human impact. Our results suggest that monitoring a targeted set of metrics would efficiently identify species facing a higher risk, and could guide the allocation of resources between monitoring species' extinction risk and monitoring external conditions.

  15. Extinction risk is most acute for the world's largest and smallest vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M; Hoffmann, Michael; Wirsing, Aaron J; McCauley, Douglas J

    2017-09-18

    Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world's vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet.

  16. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  17. A comparative analysis of specialization and extinction risk in temperate-zone bats.

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    Identifying the factors that influence the extinction risk of animals is essential in conservation biology because they help identify endangered species and provide the basis for their preservation.We present a comparative study that uses data from the literature on the diet and morphological specialization of European and North American bat species to investigate the effect of specialization on extinction risk. We focused on bats because many species are endangered and their high ecologic...

  18. The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Steven W; Polidoro, Beth A; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U; Mercier, Annie

    2014-04-22

    Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.

  19. Extinction risk and diversification are linked in a plant biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, T Jonathan; Smith, Gideon F; Bellstedt, Dirk U; Boatwright, James S; Bytebier, Benny; Cowling, Richard M; Forest, Félix; Harmon, Luke J; Muasya, A Muthama; Schrire, Brian D; Steenkamp, Yolande; van der Bank, Michelle; Savolainen, Vincent

    2011-05-01

    It is widely recognized that we are entering an extinction event on a scale approaching the mass extinctions seen in the fossil record. Present-day rates of extinction are estimated to be several orders of magnitude greater than background rates and are projected to increase further if current trends continue. In vertebrates, species traits, such as body size, fecundity, and geographic range, are important predictors of vulnerability. Although plants are the basis for life on Earth, our knowledge of plant extinctions and vulnerabilities is lagging. Here, we disentangle the underlying drivers of extinction risk in plants, focusing on the Cape of South Africa, a global biodiversity hotspot. By comparing Red List data for the British and South African floras, we demonstrate that the taxonomic distribution of extinction risk differs significantly between regions, inconsistent with a simple, trait-based model of extinction. Using a comprehensive phylogenetic tree for the Cape, we reveal a phylogenetic signal in the distribution of plant extinction risks but show that the most threatened species cluster within short branches at the tips of the phylogeny--opposite to trends in mammals. From analyzing the distribution of threatened species across 11 exemplar clades, we suggest that mode of speciation best explains the unusual phylogenetic structure of extinction risks in plants of the Cape. Our results demonstrate that explanations for elevated extinction risk in plants of the Cape flora differ dramatically from those recognized for vertebrates. In the Cape, extinction risk is higher for young and fast-evolving plant lineages and cannot be explained by correlations with simple biological traits. Critically, we find that the most vulnerable plant species are nonetheless marching towards extinction at a more rapid pace but, surprisingly, independently from anthropogenic effects. Our results have important implications for conservation priorities and cast doubts on the

  20. Extinction risk and diversification are linked in a plant biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Jonathan Davies

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available It is widely recognized that we are entering an extinction event on a scale approaching the mass extinctions seen in the fossil record. Present-day rates of extinction are estimated to be several orders of magnitude greater than background rates and are projected to increase further if current trends continue. In vertebrates, species traits, such as body size, fecundity, and geographic range, are important predictors of vulnerability. Although plants are the basis for life on Earth, our knowledge of plant extinctions and vulnerabilities is lagging. Here, we disentangle the underlying drivers of extinction risk in plants, focusing on the Cape of South Africa, a global biodiversity hotspot. By comparing Red List data for the British and South African floras, we demonstrate that the taxonomic distribution of extinction risk differs significantly between regions, inconsistent with a simple, trait-based model of extinction. Using a comprehensive phylogenetic tree for the Cape, we reveal a phylogenetic signal in the distribution of plant extinction risks but show that the most threatened species cluster within short branches at the tips of the phylogeny--opposite to trends in mammals. From analyzing the distribution of threatened species across 11 exemplar clades, we suggest that mode of speciation best explains the unusual phylogenetic structure of extinction risks in plants of the Cape. Our results demonstrate that explanations for elevated extinction risk in plants of the Cape flora differ dramatically from those recognized for vertebrates. In the Cape, extinction risk is higher for young and fast-evolving plant lineages and cannot be explained by correlations with simple biological traits. Critically, we find that the most vulnerable plant species are nonetheless marching towards extinction at a more rapid pace but, surprisingly, independently from anthropogenic effects. Our results have important implications for conservation priorities and cast

  1. Extinction risk and structure of a food web model

    CERN Document Server

    PÈ©kalski, A; Bena, I; Droz, M

    2007-01-01

    We investigate in detail the model of a trophic web proposed by Amaral and Meyer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. We focused on small-size systems that are relevant for real biological food webs and for which the fluctuations are playing an important role. We show, using Monte Carlo simulations, that such webs can be non-viable, leading to extinction of all species in small and/or weakly coupled systems. Estimations of the extinction times and survival chances are also given. We show that before the extinction the fraction of highly-connected species ("omnivores") is increasing. Viable food webs exhibit a pyramidal structure, where the density of occupied niches is higher at lower trophic levels, and moreover the occupations of adjacent levels are closely correlated. We also demonstrate that the distribution of the lengths of food chains has an exponential character and changes weakly with the parameters of the model. On the contrary, the distribution of avalanche sizes of the extinct species depends strong...

  2. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  3. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sammy De Grave

    Full Text Available We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT. Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats.

  4. Dead shrimp blues: a global assessment of extinction risk in freshwater shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Grave, Sammy; Smith, Kevin G; Adeler, Nils A; Allen, Dave J; Alvarez, Fernando; Anker, Arthur; Cai, Yixiong; Carrizo, Savrina F; Klotz, Werner; Mantelatto, Fernando L; Page, Timothy J; Shy, Jhy-Yun; Villalobos, José Luis; Wowor, Daisy

    2015-01-01

    We present the first global assessment of extinction risk for a major group of freshwater invertebrates, caridean shrimps. The risk of extinction for all 763 species was assessed using the IUCN Red List criteria that include geographic ranges, habitats, ecology and past and present threats. The Indo-Malayan region holds over half of global species diversity, with a peak in Indo-China and southern China. Shrimps primarily inhabit flowing water; however, a significant subterranean component is present, which is more threatened than the surface fauna. Two species are extinct with a further 10 possibly extinct, and almost one third of species are either threatened or Near Threatened (NT). Threats to freshwater shrimps include agricultural and urban pollution impact over two-thirds of threatened and NT species. Invasive species and climate change have the greatest overall impact of all threats (based on combined timing, scope and severity of threats).

  5. Bushmeat hunting and extinction risk to the world's mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abernethy, Katharine; Betts, Matthew G.; Chapron, Guillaume; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Galetti, Mauro; Levi, Taal; Lindsey, Peter A.; Macdonald, David W.; Machovina, Brian; Peres, Carlos A.; Wallach, Arian D.

    2016-01-01

    Terrestrial mammals are experiencing a massive collapse in their population sizes and geographical ranges around the world, but many of the drivers, patterns and consequences of this decline remain poorly understood. Here we provide an analysis showing that bushmeat hunting for mostly food and medicinal products is driving a global crisis whereby 301 terrestrial mammal species are threatened with extinction. Nearly all of these threatened species occur in developing countries where major coexisting threats include deforestation, agricultural expansion, human encroachment and competition with livestock. The unrelenting decline of mammals suggests many vital ecological and socio-economic services that these species provide will be lost, potentially changing ecosystems irrevocably. We discuss options and current obstacles to achieving effective conservation, alongside consequences of failure to stem such anthropogenic mammalian extirpation. We propose a multi-pronged conservation strategy to help save threatened mammals from immediate extinction and avoid a collapse of food security for hundreds of millions of people. PMID:27853564

  6. Life History Correlates and Extinction Risk of Capital-Breeding Fishes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jager, Yetta [ORNL; Vila-Gispert, Dr Anna [University of Girona, Spain; Rose, Kenneth A. [Louisiana State University

    2008-03-01

    We consider a distinction for fishes, often made for birds and reptiles, between capital-breeding and income-breeding species. Species that follow a capital-breeding strategy tend to evolve longer intervals between reproductive events and tend to have characteristics that we associate with higher extinction risk. To examine whether these ideas are relevant for fishes, we assembled life-history data for fish species, including an index of extinction risk, the interval between spawning events, the degree of parental care, and whether or not the species migrates to spawn. These data were used to evaluate two hypotheses: 1) fish species with a major accessory activity to spawning (migration or parental care) spawn less often and 2) fish species that spawn less often are at greater risk of extinction. We tested these hypotheses by applying two alternative statistical methods that account for phylogenetic correlation in cross-taxon comparisons. The two methods predicted average intervals between spawning events 0.13 to 0.20 years longer for fishes with a major accessory activity. Both accessories, above-average parental care and spawning migration, were individually associated with longer average spawning intervals. We conclude that the capital-breeding paradigm is relevant for fishes. We also confirmed the second hypothesis, that species in higher IUCN extinction risk categories had longer average spawning intervals. Further research is needed to understand the relationship between extinction risk and spawning interval, within the broader context of life history traits and aquatic habitats.

  7. Rethinking Trade-Driven Extinction Risk in Marine and Terrestrial Megafauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClenachan, Loren; Cooper, Andrew B; Dulvy, Nicholas K

    2016-06-20

    Large animals hunted for the high value of their parts (e.g., elephant ivory and shark fins) are at risk of extinction due to both intensive international trade pressure and intrinsic biological sensitivity. However, the relative role of trade, particularly in non-perishable products, and biological factors in driving extinction risk is not well understood [1-4]. Here we identify a taxonomically diverse group of >100 marine and terrestrial megafauna targeted for international luxury markets; estimate their value across three points of sale; test relationships among extinction risk, high value, and body size; and quantify the effects of two mitigating factors: poaching fines and geographic range size. We find that body size is the principal driver of risk for lower value species, but that this biological pattern is eliminated above a value threshold, meaning that the most valuable species face a high extinction risk regardless of size. For example, once mean product values exceed US$12,557 kg(-1), body size no longer drives risk. Total value scales with size for marine animals more strongly than for terrestrial animals, incentivizing the hunting of large marine individuals and species. Poaching fines currently have little effect on extinction risk; fines would need to be increased 10- to 100-fold to be effective. Large geographic ranges reduce risk for terrestrial, but not marine, species, whose ranges are ten times greater. Our results underscore both the evolutionary and ecosystem consequences of targeting large marine animals and the need to geographically scale up and prioritize conservation of high-value marine species to avoid extinction.

  8. Interventions for reducing extinction risk in chytridiomycosis-threatened amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheele, Ben C; Hunter, David A; Grogan, Laura F; Berger, Lee; Kolby, Jon E; McFadden, Michael S; Marantelli, Gerry; Skerratt, Lee F; Driscoll, Don A

    2014-10-01

    Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large-scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease-free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease-associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species.

  9. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marco, Di M.; Buchanan, G.M.; Szantoi, Z.; Holmgren, M.; Grottolo Marasini, G.; Gross, D.; Tranquili, S.; Boitani, L.; Rondini, C.

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine

  10. Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

    2011-01-01

    The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of envi

  11. Expert opinion on extinction risk and climate change adaptation for biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Javeline

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite projections of biodiversity loss and proposed adaptations to climate change, few data exist on the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation strategies in minimizing biodiversity loss. Given the urgent need for action, scientific experts can fill critical information gaps by providing rapid and discerning risk assessment. A survey of 2,329 biodiversity experts projects, on average, that 9.5% of species will become extinct due to climate change within the next 100 years. This average projection is low relative to previously published values but substantial in absolute terms, because it amounts to a loss of hundreds of thousands of species over the next century. The average projection increases to 21% when experts are asked to estimate the percentage of species that will become extinct within the next 100 years due to climate change in combination with other causes. More than three-quarters of respondents reported being uncertain about their extinction estimates. A majority of experts preferred protected areas or corridors to reduce extinction risk but identified ex situ conservation and no intervention as the most feasible strategies. Experts also suggest that managed relocation of species, a particular adaptation strategy, is justifiable and effective in some situations but not others. Justifiable circumstances include the prevention of species extinction and overcoming human-made barriers to dispersal, and while experts are divided on the potential effectiveness of managed relocation for most taxonomic groups, higher percentages predict it effective for woody plants, terrestrial insects, and mammals. Most experts are open to the potential benefits of managed relocation but are concerned about unintended harmful consequences, particularly putting non-target species at risk of extinction. On balance, published biodiversity scientists feel that managed relocation, despite controversy about it, can be part of the conservation

  12. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike S Fowler

    Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

  13. Mating system affects population performance and extinction risk under environmental challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plesnar-Bielak, Agata; Skrzynecka, Anna M; Prokop, Zofia M; Radwan, Jacek

    2012-11-22

    Failure of organisms to adapt to sudden environmental changes may lead to extinction. The type of mating system, by affecting fertility and the strength of sexual selection, may have a major impact on a population's chances to adapt and survive. Here, we use experimental evolution in bulb mites (Rhizoglyphus robini) to examine the effects of the mating system on population performance under environmental change. We demonstrate that populations in which monogamy was enforced suffered a dramatic fitness decline when evolving at an increased temperature, whereas the negative effects of change in a thermal environment were alleviated in polygamous populations. Strikingly, within 17 generations, all monogamous populations experiencing higher temperature went extinct, whereas all polygamous populations survived. Our results show that the mating system may have dramatic effects on the risk of extinction under environmental change.

  14. Elemental conservation units: communicating extinction risk without dictating targets for protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Chris C; Gross, Mart R

    2008-02-01

    Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.

  15. Body size and extinction risk in terrestrial mammals above the species level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomiya, Susumu

    2013-12-01

    Mammalian body mass strongly correlates with life history and population properties at the scale of mouse to elephant. Large body size is thus often associated with elevated extinction risk. I examined the North American fossil record (28-1 million years ago) of 276 terrestrial genera to uncover the relationship between body size and extinction probability above the species level. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed no correlation between sampling-adjusted durations and body masses ranging 7 orders of magnitude, an observation that was corroborated by survival analysis. Most of the ecological and temporal groups within the data set showed the same lack of relationship. Size-biased generic extinctions do not constitute a general feature of the Holarctic mammalian faunas in the Neogene. Rather, accelerated loss of large mammals occurred during intervals that experienced combinations of regional aridification and increased biomic heterogeneity within continents. The latter phenomenon is consistent with the macroecological prediction that large geographic ranges are critical to the survival of large mammals in evolutionary time. The frequent lack of size selectivity in generic extinctions can be reconciled with size-biased species loss if extinctions of large and small mammals at the species level are often driven by ecological perturbations of different spatial and temporal scales, while those at the genus level are more synchronized in time as a result of fundamental, multiscale environmental shifts.

  16. Body size, extinction risk and knowledge bias in New World snakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Vilela

    Full Text Available Extinction risk and body size have been found to be related in various vertebrate groups, with larger species being more at risk than smaller ones. We checked whether this was also the case for snakes by investigating extinction risk-body size relationships in the New World's Colubroidea species. We used the IUCN Red List risk categories to assign each species to one of two broad levels of threat (Threatened and Non-Threatened or to identify it as either Data Deficient or Not-Evaluated by the IUCN. We also included the year of description of each species in our analysis as this could affect the level of threat assigned to it (earlier described species had more time to gather information about them, which might have facilitated their evaluation. Also, species detectability could be a function of body size, with larger species tending to be described earlier, which could have an impact in extinction risk-body size relationships. We found a negative relationship between body size and description year, with large-bodied species being described earlier. Description year also varied among risk categories, with Non-Threatened species being described earlier than Threatened species and both species groups earlier than Data Deficient species. On average, Data Deficient species also presented smaller body sizes, while no size differences were detected between Threatened and Non-Threatened species. So it seems that smaller body sizes are related with species detectability, thus potentially affecting both when a species is described (smaller species tend to be described more recently as well as the amount of information gathered about it (Data Deficient species tend to be smaller. Our data also indicated that if Data Deficient species were to be categorized as Threatened in the future, snake body size and extinction risk would be negatively related, contrasting with the opposite pattern commonly observed in other vertebrate groups.

  17. Double jeopardy and global extinction risk in corals and reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Terry P; Bellwood, David R; Connolly, Sean R; Cornell, Howard V; Karlson, Ronald H

    2014-12-15

    Coral reefs are critically important ecosystems that support the food security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in maritime tropical countries, yet they are increasingly threatened by overfishing, coastal pollution, climate change, and other anthropogenic impacts, leading to concerns that some species may be threatened with local or even global extinction. The concept of double jeopardy proposes that the risk of species extinction is elevated if species that are endemic (small range) are also scarce (low local abundance). Traditionally, marine macroecology has been founded on patterns of species richness and presence-absence data, which provide no information on species abundances or on the prevalence of double jeopardy. Here we quantify the abundances of >400 species of corals and fishes along one of the world's major marine biodiversity gradients, from the Coral Triangle hotspot to French Polynesia, a distance of approximately 10,000 km. In contrast to classical terrestrial studies, we find that the abundance of these species bears no relationship to the size of their geographic ranges. Consequently, double jeopardy is uncommon because endemics are often locally abundant, and conversely many pandemics are rare. The Coral Triangle hotspot has more numerically rare species (both endemic and pandemic) but also encompasses more species with intermediate and higher abundances. We conclude that conservation efforts in the sea should focus less on extinction risk and more on maintaining and rebuilding key ecological functions that are highly vulnerable to human pressures, even if species can avoid extinction.

  18. Body Size, Extinction Risk and Knowledge Bias in New World Snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Bruno; Villalobos, Fabricio; Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2014-01-01

    Extinction risk and body size have been found to be related in various vertebrate groups, with larger species being more at risk than smaller ones. We checked whether this was also the case for snakes by investigating extinction risk–body size relationships in the New World's Colubroidea species. We used the IUCN Red List risk categories to assign each species to one of two broad levels of threat (Threatened and Non-Threatened) or to identify it as either Data Deficient or Not-Evaluated by the IUCN. We also included the year of description of each species in our analysis as this could affect the level of threat assigned to it (earlier described species had more time to gather information about them, which might have facilitated their evaluation). Also, species detectability could be a function of body size, with larger species tending to be described earlier, which could have an impact in extinction risk–body size relationships. We found a negative relationship between body size and description year, with large-bodied species being described earlier. Description year also varied among risk categories, with Non-Threatened species being described earlier than Threatened species and both species groups earlier than Data Deficient species. On average, Data Deficient species also presented smaller body sizes, while no size differences were detected between Threatened and Non-Threatened species. So it seems that smaller body sizes are related with species detectability, thus potentially affecting both when a species is described (smaller species tend to be described more recently) as well as the amount of information gathered about it (Data Deficient species tend to be smaller). Our data also indicated that if Data Deficient species were to be categorized as Threatened in the future, snake body size and extinction risk would be negatively related, contrasting with the opposite pattern commonly observed in other vertebrate groups. PMID:25409293

  19. Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone

    2014-08-06

    One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction.

  20. Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibold, Sebastian; Brandl, Roland; Buse, Jörn; Hothorn, Torsten; Schmidl, Jürgen; Thorn, Simon; Müller, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large-scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red-list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional-odds linear mixed-effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red-list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad-leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad-leaved forests to dense conifer-dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad-leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas.

  1. Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier López-Upton

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

  2. Darwin's manufactory hypothesis is confirmed and predicts the extinction risk of extant birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G Haskell

    Full Text Available In the Origin of Species Darwin hypothesized that the "manufactory" of species operates at different rates in different lineages and that the richness of taxonomic units is autocorrelated across levels of the taxonomic hierarchy. We confirm the manufactory hypothesis using a database of all the world's extant avian subspecies, species and genera. The hypothesis is confirmed both in correlations across all genera and in paired comparisons controlling for phylogeny. We also find that the modern risk of extinction, as measured by "Red List" classifications, differs across the different categories of genera identified by Darwin. Specifically, species in "manufactory" genera are less likely to be threatened, endangered or recently extinct than are "weak manufactory" genera. Therefore, although Darwin used his hypothesis to investigate past evolutionary processes, we find that the hypothesis also foreshadows future changes to the evolutionary tree.

  3. Darwin's manufactory hypothesis is confirmed and predicts the extinction risk of extant birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskell, David G; Adhikari, Anupam

    2009-01-01

    In the Origin of Species Darwin hypothesized that the "manufactory" of species operates at different rates in different lineages and that the richness of taxonomic units is autocorrelated across levels of the taxonomic hierarchy. We confirm the manufactory hypothesis using a database of all the world's extant avian subspecies, species and genera. The hypothesis is confirmed both in correlations across all genera and in paired comparisons controlling for phylogeny. We also find that the modern risk of extinction, as measured by "Red List" classifications, differs across the different categories of genera identified by Darwin. Specifically, species in "manufactory" genera are less likely to be threatened, endangered or recently extinct than are "weak manufactory" genera. Therefore, although Darwin used his hypothesis to investigate past evolutionary processes, we find that the hypothesis also foreshadows future changes to the evolutionary tree.

  4. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth A Polidoro

    Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  5. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

    2010-04-08

    Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  6. The effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk: Mechanisms and synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H. Reed

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Across the globe, much current research reflects concerns over the effect of habitat fragmentation on the viability of species and populations. This is an immediate and important concern for the Kingdom of Thailand, where decisions about land use are at a critical juncture. Thailand is in danger of losing species that play a special role in Thai culture and history such as the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus and the tiger (Panthera tigris. We provide a selective review and synthesis of the effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk. Our emphasis is on objectives, causal mechanisms, and the validity of some of the arguments that have been made in the debate. Heuristic models are explored to elucidate mechanisms that may affect populations in fragmented landscapes and we point out gaps in our knowledge of this important and complicated question. Our synthesis of the current evidence suggests that fragmenting landscapes usually increases the risk of extinction, especially as the isolation of patches increases or the size of patches decreases. The Kingdom of Thailand, and other countries facing similar circumstances, should seek to connect isolated patches of habitat in order to better protect their remaining biodiversity.

  7. Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

  8. Interspecific patterns of genetic diversity in birds: correlations with extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Simon R; Sheldon, Ben C

    2008-08-01

    Birds are frequently used as indicators of ecosystem health and are the most comprehensively studied class in the animal kingdom. Nevertheless, a comprehensive, interspecific assessment of the correlates of avian genetic diversity is lacking, even though indices of genetic diversity are of considerable interest in the conservation of threatened species. We used published data on variation at microsatellite loci from 194 bird species to examine correlates of diversity, particularly with respect to conservation status and population size. We found a significant decline in mean heterozygosity with increasing extinction risk, and showed, by excluding species whose heterozygosity values were calculated with heterospecific primers, that this relationship was not dependent on ascertainment bias. Results of subsequent regression analyses suggested that smaller population sizes of threatened species were largely responsible for this relationship. Thus, bird species at risk of extinction are relatively depauperate in terms of neutral genetic diversity, which is expected to make population recovery more difficult if it reflects adaptive genetic variation. Conservation policy will need to minimize further loss of diversity if the chances of saving threatened species are to be maximized.

  9. The Risks of Electronic Voting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallach, Dan (Rice University)

    2004-08-18

    conclude that, as a society, we must carefully consider the risks inherent in electronic voting, as it places our very democracy at risk.

  10. Long-distance translocations to create a second millerbird population and reduce extinction risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Freifeld,; Sheldon Plentovich,; Chris Farmer,; Charles Kohley,; Peter Luscomb,; Work, Thierry M.; Daniel Tsukayama,; George Wallace,; Mark MacDonald,; Sheila Conant,

    2016-01-01

    Translocation is a conservation tool used with increasing frequency to create additional populations of threatened species. In addition to following established general guidelines for translocations, detailed planning to account for unique circumstances and intensive post-release monitoring to document outcomes and guide management are essential components of these projects. Recent translocation of the critically endangered Nihoa millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) provides an example of this planning and monitoring. The Nihoa millerbird is a passerine bird endemic to Nihoa Island in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The closely related, ecologically similar Laysan millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris familiaris) went extinct on Laysan Island in the early 20th century when the island was denuded by introduced rabbits. To reduce extinction risk, we translocated 50 adult Nihoa millerbirds more than 1000 km by sea to Laysan, which has recovered substantially in the past century and has ample habitat and a rich prey-base for millerbirds. Following five years of intensive background research and planning, including development of husbandry techniques, fundraising, and regulatory compliance, translocations occurred in 2011 and 2012. Of 11 females in each cohort, 8 (2011 cohort) and 11 (2012 cohort) produced at least one brood of fledglings during their first year on Laysan. At the conclusion of monitoring in September 2014, 37 of the translocated birds were known to survive, and the population was estimated at 164 birds. The reintroduction of millerbirds to Laysan represents a milestone in the island's ongoing restoration.

  11. Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish-Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

  12. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

  13. Density dependence and risk of extinction in a small population of sea otters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, L.R.; Buenau, K.E.; VanBlaricom, G.

    2004-01-01

    Sea otters (Enhydra lutris (L.)) were hunted to extinction off the coast of Washington State early in the 20th century. A new population was established by translocations from Alaska in 1969 and 1970. The population, currently numbering at least 550 animals, A major threat to the population is the ongoing risk of majour oil spills in sea otter habitat. We apply population models to census and demographic data in order to evaluate the status of the population. We fit several density dependent models to test for density dependence and determine plausible values for the carrying capacity (K) by comparing model goodness of fit to an exponential model. Model fits were compared using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). A significant negative relationship was found between the population growth rate and population size (r2=0.27, F=5.57, df=16, pgrowth rate (??). The elasticity values indicate the population is most sensitive to changes in survival rates (particularly adult survival).

  14. Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopf, R Keller; Shaw, Casey; Humphries, Paul

    2017-06-01

    Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11

  15. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Threatened species and the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity: conservation scenarios based on estimated extinction probabilities and phylogenetic risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faith, Daniel P

    2008-12-01

    New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst-case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species

  17. The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Tejedor Garavito

    Full Text Available There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines, all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively. Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

  18. Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X; Semmens, Darius J; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Wiederholt, Ruscena; López-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Pleasants, John M; Oberhauser, Karen S; Taylor, Orley R

    2016-03-21

    The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch's multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11-57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014-15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

  19. Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

    2016-01-01

    The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

  20. Thermoregulation of two sympatric species of horned lizards in the Chihuahuan Desert and their local extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara-Reséndiz, Rafael A; Gadsden, Héctor; Rosen, Philip C; Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-De la Cruz, Fausto R

    2015-02-01

    Thermoregulatory studies of ectothermic organisms are an important tool for ecological physiology, evolutionary ecology and behavior, and recently have become central for evaluating and predicting global climate change impacts. Here, we present a novel combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to examine body temperature regulation, habitat thermal quality, and hours of thermal restriction on the activity of two sympatric, aridlands horned lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum and Phrynosoma modestum) at three contrasting Chihuahuan Desert sites in Mexico. Using these physiological data, we estimate local extinction risk under predicted climate change within their current geographical distribution. We followed the Hertz et al. (1993, Am. Nat., 142, 796-818) protocol for evaluating thermoregulation and the Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328, 894-899) eco-physiological model of extinction under climatic warming. Thermoregulatory indices suggest that both species thermoregulate effectively despite living in habitats of low thermal quality, although high environmental temperatures restrict the activity period of both species. Based on our measurements, if air temperature rises as predicted by climate models, the extinction model projects that P. cornutum will become locally extinct at 6% of sites by 2050 and 18% by 2080 and P. modestum will become extinct at 32% of sites by 2050 and 60% by 2080. The method we apply, using widely available or readily acquired thermal data, along with the modeling, appeared to identify several unique ecological traits that seemingly exacerbate climate sensitivity of P. modestum.

  1. Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reif Jiří

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

  2. Comprehensive Red List assessment reveals exceptionally high extinction risk to Madagascar palms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Dransfield, John; Bachman, Steven P; Moat, Justin; Baker, William J

    2014-01-01

    The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar's protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected areas combined with

  3. Comprehensive Red List assessment reveals exceptionally high extinction risk to Madagascar palms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijoro Rakotoarinivo

    Full Text Available The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar's protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected

  4. Modelling the extinction risk of isolated populations of natterjack toad Bufo calamita

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Meyer

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available Many local populations of the natterjack toad Bufo calamita in Germany are endangered. Due to the fragmentation and destruction of natural habitats by man, toads have often been forced to switch to secondary habitats. The permanent existence of these habitats is uncertain. Habitat and area requirements have been investigated in various parts of Germany in recent years. Our study uses field observations from sites in Halle (Saxony-Anhalt and List (Schleswig-Holstein as a basis for analyses of the population dynamics under different environmental conditions. Deterministic trends of these populations are calculated with the help of a Leslie matrix consisting of average parameters for mortality and reproduction. For a more thorough analysis we use a stochastic simulation model in order to assess survival probabilities of local toad populations. This model also takes into account environmental fluctuations affecting mortality and reproduction. Using scenarios from different locations, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters indicates which management options are the most promising to preserve a population. Our results indicate that the mortality rates of juveniles and the availability of spawning ground have the greatest influence on a population’s survival. Consequently, habitat management should focus on these aspects. In addition, we investigate the risk of extinction for different reproductive strategies. Natterjack toad populations observed in the field actually follow a strategy with three breeding periods. We find that this strategy supports the survival of the population better than strategies with less periods, which are more likely to result in a complete breeding failure during one season.

  5. Comprehensive Red List Assessment Reveals Exceptionally High Extinction Risk to Madagascar Palms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Dransfield, John; Bachman, Steven P.; Moat, Justin; Baker, William J.

    2014-01-01

    The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar’s protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected areas combined

  6. An electronic patient risk communication board.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohashi, Kumiko; Caligtan, Christine A; Benoit, Angela N; Breydo, Eugene M; Carroll, Diane L; Keohane, Carol A; Bates, David W; Dykes, John S; Dykes, Patricia C

    2012-01-01

    Communication failures have been identified as the root cause of the majority of medical malpractice claims and patient safety violations. We believe it is essential to share key patient risk information with healthcare team members at the patient's bedside. In this study, we developed an electronic Patient Risk Communication Board (ePRCB) to assist in bridging the communication gap between all health care team members. The goal of the ePRCB is to effectively communicate the patient's key risk factors, such as a fall risk or risk of aspiration, to the healthcare team and to reduce adverse events caused by communication failures. The ePRCB will transmit patient risk information and tailored interventions with easy-to-understand icons on an LCD screen at the point of care. A set of patient risk reminder icons was developed and validated by focus groups. We used the results of the evaluation to refine the icons for the ePRCB.

  7. Reintroducing Guanaco in the Upper Belt of Central Argentina: Using Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate Extinction Risk and Management Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barri, Fernando Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued. PMID:27741302

  8. Mass extinction: a commentary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, D. M.

    1987-01-01

    Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.

  9. A popular and potentially sustainable fishery resource under pressure–extinction risk and conservation of Brazilian Sciaenidae (Teleostei: Perciformes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Labbish Chao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Croakers (Sciaenidae are major fishery resource in Brazil; constituting 22% of marine and 9% of freshwater fishery landings. Croakers are subject to heavy fishing pressure throughout Brazil, but habitat alteration is also an important threat to regional populations. In this regional Sciaenidae assessment, each species was analyzed for relative risk of extinction, including the identification and quantification of the impact of major threats and existing conservation measures, based on application of the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Of the 52 species of Sciaenid fishes (34 marine and 18 freshwater present in Brazilian waters, the majority are at low risk of extinction, with 10 species classified as Data Deficient (DD and 36 as Least Concern (LC. However the Southern black drum (Pogonias cromis, listed as Endangered (EN is the most threatened species in the region, while three other species are classified as Near Threatened (NT. A large portion of Brazilian croakers is landed by small-scale artisanal fisheries, which are scattered along coastal and riverine communities. However, our assessments reveal that available fishery landing statistics may have greatly underestimated the artisanal fishery production and by-catch of Sciaenids. We recommend establishing, with adequate enforcement, coastal and riverine protected areas as well as strategic fishing seasons to improve and maintain the conservation status of Sciaenids and sustainable Sciaenid fisheries.

  10. Metallic Interface Emerging at Magnetic Domain Wall of Antiferromagnetic Insulator: Fate of Extinct Weyl Electrons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youhei Yamaji

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Topological insulators, in contrast to ordinary semiconductors, accompany protected metallic surfaces described by Dirac-type fermions. Here, we theoretically show that another emergent two-dimensional metal embedded in the bulk insulator is realized at a magnetic domain wall. The domain wall has long been studied as an ingredient of both old-fashioned and leading-edge spintronics. The domain wall here, as an interface of seemingly trivial antiferromagnetic insulators, emergently realizes a functional interface preserved by zero modes with robust two-dimensional Fermi surfaces, where pyrochlore iridium oxides proposed to host the condensed-matter realization of Weyl fermions offer such examples at low temperatures. The existence of in-gap states that are pinned at domain walls, theoretically resembling spin or charge solitons in polyacetylene, and protected as the edges of hidden one-dimensional weak Chern insulators characterized by a zero-dimensional class-A topological invariant, solves experimental puzzles observed in R_{2}Ir_{2}O_{7} with rare-earth elements R. The domain wall realizes a novel quantum confinement of electrons and embosses a net uniform magnetization that enables magnetic control of electronic interface transports beyond the semiconductor paradigm.

  11. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  12. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  13. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrián Naveda-Rodríguez

    Full Text Available The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  14. Rethinking Extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-10-07

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Rethinking Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavior...

  16. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvire Bestion

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

  17. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

    2015-10-01

    Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

  18. Hybridization and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todesco, Marco; Pascual, Mariana A; Owens, Gregory L; Ostevik, Katherine L; Moyers, Brook T; Hübner, Sariel; Heredia, Sylvia M; Hahn, Min A; Caseys, Celine; Bock, Dan G; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2016-08-01

    Hybridization may drive rare taxa to extinction through genetic swamping, where the rare form is replaced by hybrids, or by demographic swamping, where population growth rates are reduced due to the wasteful production of maladaptive hybrids. Conversely, hybridization may rescue the viability of small, inbred populations. Understanding the factors that contribute to destructive versus constructive outcomes of hybridization is key to managing conservation concerns. Here, we survey the literature for studies of hybridization and extinction to identify the ecological, evolutionary, and genetic factors that critically affect extinction risk through hybridization. We find that while extinction risk is highly situation dependent, genetic swamping is much more frequent than demographic swamping. In addition, human involvement is associated with increased risk and high reproductive isolation with reduced risk. Although climate change is predicted to increase the risk of hybridization-induced extinction, we find little empirical support for this prediction. Similarly, theoretical and experimental studies imply that genetic rescue through hybridization may be equally or more probable than demographic swamping, but our literature survey failed to support this claim. We conclude that halting the introduction of hybridization-prone exotics and restoring mature and diverse habitats that are resistant to hybrid establishment should be management priorities.

  19. Decline of shortjaw cisco in Lake Superior: the role of overfishing and risk of extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Gorman, Owen T.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Todd, Thomas N.

    2010-01-01

    Recent reviews have further documented the decline of the shortjaw cisco Coregonus zenithicus in Lake Superior. This fish was the most abundant deepwater cisco species in Lake Superior in the early 1920s but presently makes up less than 1% of all deepwater ciscoes (i.e., including shortjaw cisco, bloater C. hoyi, and kiyi C. kiyi) captured in biological surveys. Directed overfishing of deepwater cisco species during the 1930s and again during the mid-1960s and 1970s has been suggested as the cause of the shortjaw cisco's demise. In this paper, we re-examined the overfishing hypothesis by using historical and recent survey data to estimate the proportion of the historical commercial fishery landings that comprised shortjaw ciscoes. We developed time series of estimated harvest and relative abundance for all statistical districts in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929–1996, for which aggregate catch and effort data were available but not previously examined. The spatial distribution of the fishery and the relationships of catch to fishing effort were examined for evidence of overfishing. Our analysis suggested that directed overfishing was probably not the cause of shortjaw cisco demise, as this species appeared to be declining in all statistical districts regardless of the intensity of the fishery. A count-based population viability analysis indicated that quasi-extinction of the shortjaw cisco is highly probable in the near future. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the decline of Lake Superior's keystone predator, the lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, which resulted in an expansion of the population of its principal prey, the cisco C. artedi, due to release from predation pressure. Competitive or predation interactions between the cisco and shortjaw cisco may be more likely explanations for the demise of the latter species.

  20. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgeta Soava

    2016-01-01

    Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks i...

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Soava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks inherent of the business in digital environments, but they not represent only a particular case of the risks they are exposed, in general, the companies. In the paper we put in evidence the significance in general business, risks in e-business, then we added a description of the types of security risks, an exemplification of these and a series of test scenarios, and finally to make a analysis of operational solutions of risk management

  2. The extinction of the West African lion: whose responsibility?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nollkaemper, A.

    2014-01-01

    A recently published study showed that the lion in West Africa is now critically endangered and faces extinction. From one angle, this would be just one of the large (though unknown) number of species that has previously faced extinction or has even become extinct. But the risk of extinction of some

  3. The extinction of the West African lion: whose responsibility?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Nollkaemper

    2014-01-01

    A recently published study showed that the lion in West Africa is now critically endangered and faces extinction. From one angle, this would be just one of the large (though unknown) number of species that has previously faced extinction or has even become extinct. But the risk of extinction of some

  4. Perceived risk and trust associated with purchasing at Electronic Marketplaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meents, Selmar; Tan, Yao-Hua; Verhagen, Tibert

    2006-01-01

    Understanding consumer behaviour is of vital importance to consumer oriented e-business models today. In this paper we study the relationships between consumer perceptions of risk and trust and the attitude towards purchasing at a consumer-to-consumer electronic marketplace. Typical for electronic m

  5. Interstellar Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontcharov, G. A.

    2016-12-01

    This review describes our current understanding of interstellar extinction. This differ substantially from the ideas of the 20th century. With infrared surveys of hundreds of millions of stars over the entire sky, such as 2MASS, SPITZER-IRAC, and WISE, we have looked at the densest and most rarefied regions of the interstellar medium at distances of a few kpc from the Sun. Observations at infrared and microwave wavelengths, where the bulk of the interstellar dust absorbs and radiates, have brought us closer to an understanding of the distribution of the dust particles on scales of the Galaxy and the universe. We are in the midst of a scientific revolution in our understanding of the interstellar medium and dust. Progress in, and the key results of, this revolution are still difficult to predict. Nevertheless, (a) a physically justified model has been developed for the spatial distribution of absorbing material over the nearest few kiloparsecs, including the Gould belt as a dust container, which gives an accurate estimate of the extinction for any object just by its galactic coordinates. It is also clear that (b) the interstellar medium contains roughly half the mass of matter in the galactic vicinity of the solar system (the other half is made up of stars, their remnants, and dark matter) and (c) the interstellar medium and, especially, dust, differ substantially in different regions of space and deep space cannot be understood by only studying near space.

  6. Predicting neutropenia risk in patients with cancer using electronic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawloski, Pamala A; Thomas, Avis J; Kane, Sheryl; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Shapiro, Gary R; Lyman, Gary H

    2017-04-01

    Clinical guidelines recommending the use of myeloid growth factors are largely based on the prescribed chemotherapy regimen. The guidelines suggest that oncologists consider patient-specific characteristics when prescribing granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis; however, a mechanism to quantify individual patient risk is lacking. Readily available electronic health record (EHR) data can provide patient-specific information needed for individualized neutropenia risk estimation. An evidence-based, individualized neutropenia risk estimation algorithm has been developed. This study evaluated the automated extraction of EHR chemotherapy treatment data and externally validated the neutropenia risk prediction model. A retrospective cohort of adult patients with newly diagnosed breast, colorectal, lung, lymphoid, or ovarian cancer who received the first cycle of a cytotoxic chemotherapy regimen from 2008 to 2013 were recruited from a single cancer clinic. Electronically extracted EHR chemotherapy treatment data were validated by chart review. Neutropenia risk stratification was conducted and risk model performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination. Chemotherapy treatment data electronically extracted from the EHR were verified by chart review. The neutropenia risk prediction tool classified 126 patients (57%) as being low risk for febrile neutropenia, 44 (20%) as intermediate risk, and 51 (23%) as high risk. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test = 0.24). Discrimination was adequate and slightly less than in the original internal validation (c-statistic 0.75 vs 0.81). Chemotherapy treatment data were electronically extracted from the EHR successfully. The individualized neutropenia risk prediction model performed well in our retrospective external cohort.

  7. Radiation Risks and Mitigation in Electronic Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Todd, B

    2015-01-01

    Electrical and electronic systems can be disturbed by radiation-induced effects. In some cases, radiation-induced effects are of a low probability and can be ignored; however, radiation effects must be considered when designing systems that have a high mean time to failure requirement, an impact on protection, and/or higher exposure to radiat ion. High-energy physics power systems suffer from a combination of these effects: a high mean time to failure is required, failure can impact on protection, and the proximity of systems to accelerators increases the likelihood of radiation-induced events. This paper presents the principal radiation-induced effects, and radiation environments typical to high-energy physics. It outlines a procedure for designing and validating radiation-tolerant systems using commercial off-the-shelf components. The paper ends with a worked example of radiation-tolerant power converter controls that are being developed for the Large Hadron Collider and High Luminosity-Large Hadron Colli...

  8. Effect of electronic stability control on automobile crash risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Charles

    2004-12-01

    Per vehicle crash involvement rates were compared for otherwise identical vehicle models with and without electronic stability control (ESC) systems. ESC was found to affect single-vehicle crashes to a greater extent than multiple-vehicle crashes, and crashes with fatal injuries to a greater extent than less severe crashes. Based on all police-reported crashes in 7 states over 2 years, ESC reduced single-vehicle crash involvement risk by approximately 41 percent (95 percent confidence limits 3348) and single-vehicle injury crash involvement risk by 41 percent (2752). This translates to an estimated 7 percent reduction in overall crash involvement risk (310) and a 9 percent reduction in overall injury crash involvement risk (314). Based on all fatal crashes in the United States over 3 years, ESC was found to have reduced single-vehicle fatal crash involvement risk by 56 percent (3968). This translates to an estimated 34 percent reduction in overall fatal crash involvement risk (2145).

  9. How to detect and visualize extinction thresholds for structured PVA models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hildenbrandt, H.; Grimm, V.

    2006-01-01

    An extinction threshold is a population size below which extinction risk increases to beyond critical values. However, detecting extinction thresholds for structured population models is not straightforward because many different population structures may correspond to the same population size. More

  10. Different Histories, Different Destinies‒Impact of Evolutionary History and Population Genetic Structure on Extinction Risk of the Adriatic Spined Loaches (Genus Cobitis; Cypriniformes, Actinopterygii).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buj, Ivana; Ćaleta, Marko; Marčić, Zoran; Šanda, Radek; Vukić, Jasna; Mrakovčić, Milorad

    2015-01-01

    The region of Balkans is often considered as an ichthyologic "hot spot", with a great number of species and high portion of endemics living in fresh waters in a relatively small area. The Adriatic watershed in Croatia and Herzegovina is inhabited by six spined loach species (genus Cobitis) whose extinction risk estimations were based solely on their extent of occurrence (and/or area of occupancy) and its fragmentation, and conservation proposals do not consider diversity below species level. In this investigation we employed molecular genetic methods to describe present genetic structure of the Adriatic spined loaches and reveal their demographic history. The divergence of the Adriatic lineages inside the genus Cobitis started in Miocene and lasted until Pleistocene epoch. Geological events responsible for shaping recent diversity of spined loaches in the Adriatic basin are: the Dinarid Mountains upwelling, the evolution of Dinaric Lake system, local tectonic activity, river connections during glaciations and differences in sea level. Even though all the investigated species inhabit karstic rivers located in the same geographic area and that were subject of similar geological events, the results obtained reveal great differences in their genetic diversity and structure and point out the necessity of different conservation measures to ensure their future viability. High level of genetic polymorphism is characteristic for species located more to the south. Two species comprised of more than one population have completely different intraspecific structure; populations of C. illyrica are genetically distinct and represent separate evolutionary significant units, whereas intraspecific structure of C. narentana corresponds to metapopulational pattern. Without population genetic data, evolutionary significant units could be easily misidentified. Furthermore, the obtained results affirm that population genetic measurements are able to detect differences among closely

  11. Impact of naturally spawning captive-bred Atlantic salmon on wild populations: depressed recruitment and increased risk of climate-mediated extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinnity, Philip; Jennings, Eleanor; DeEyto, Elvira; Allott, Norman; Samuelsson, Patrick; Rogan, Gerard; Whelan, Ken; Cross, Tom

    2009-10-22

    The assessment report of the 4th International Panel on Climate Change confirms that global warming is strongly affecting biological systems and that 20-30% of species risk extinction from projected future increases in temperature. It is essential that any measures taken to conserve individual species and their constituent populations against climate-mediated declines are appropriate. The release of captive bred animals to augment wild populations is a widespread management strategy for many species but has proven controversial. Using a regression model based on a 37-year study of wild and sea ranched Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) spawning together in the wild, we show that the escape of captive bred animals into the wild can substantially depress recruitment and more specifically disrupt the capacity of natural populations to adapt to higher winter water temperatures associated with climate variability. We speculate the mechanisms underlying this seasonal response and suggest that an explanation based on bio-energetic processes with physiological responses synchronized by photoperiod is plausible. Furthermore, we predict, by running the model forward using projected future climate scenarios, that these cultured fish substantially increase the risk of extinction for the studied population within 20 generations. In contrast, we show that positive outcomes to climate change are possible if captive bred animals are prevented from breeding in the wild. Rather than imposing an additional genetic load on wild populations by releasing maladapted captive bred animals, we propose that conservation efforts should focus on optimizing conditions for adaptation to occur by reducing exploitation and protecting critical habitats. Our findings are likely to hold true for most poikilothermic species where captive breeding programmes are used in population management.

  12. Different Histories, Different Destinies‒Impact of Evolutionary History and Population Genetic Structure on Extinction Risk of the Adriatic Spined Loaches (Genus Cobitis; Cypriniformes, Actinopterygii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Buj

    Full Text Available The region of Balkans is often considered as an ichthyologic "hot spot", with a great number of species and high portion of endemics living in fresh waters in a relatively small area. The Adriatic watershed in Croatia and Herzegovina is inhabited by six spined loach species (genus Cobitis whose extinction risk estimations were based solely on their extent of occurrence (and/or area of occupancy and its fragmentation, and conservation proposals do not consider diversity below species level. In this investigation we employed molecular genetic methods to describe present genetic structure of the Adriatic spined loaches and reveal their demographic history. The divergence of the Adriatic lineages inside the genus Cobitis started in Miocene and lasted until Pleistocene epoch. Geological events responsible for shaping recent diversity of spined loaches in the Adriatic basin are: the Dinarid Mountains upwelling, the evolution of Dinaric Lake system, local tectonic activity, river connections during glaciations and differences in sea level. Even though all the investigated species inhabit karstic rivers located in the same geographic area and that were subject of similar geological events, the results obtained reveal great differences in their genetic diversity and structure and point out the necessity of different conservation measures to ensure their future viability. High level of genetic polymorphism is characteristic for species located more to the south. Two species comprised of more than one population have completely different intraspecific structure; populations of C. illyrica are genetically distinct and represent separate evolutionary significant units, whereas intraspecific structure of C. narentana corresponds to metapopulational pattern. Without population genetic data, evolutionary significant units could be easily misidentified. Furthermore, the obtained results affirm that population genetic measurements are able to detect differences

  13. Charge Cards: Risk Management in the Contemporary Electronic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Čudan

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Information technology must be a tool which facilitates business operations rather than a hindrance to achieving business goals. Applicative solutions have to provide required performances, risk control, simple integration and necessary flexibility for successful implementation. Contemporary information tools offer attractive features, but they are also a specific implementation challenge for management structures in the financial sector. In the new setting of information challenge, business persons must be far better technologically trained on the one hand, while on the other, the new technology must become much more human-oriented. The aim of such application is to define risk control in the approach to information technologies and organise risk protection techniques. The management of financial institutions must permanently reconsider, revise and update the risk management plan. In this, it is essential to establish the risks prevailing in the total integrated electronic trade environment. In the electronic environment, controls must be primarily preventive by nature. Numerous and varied potential threats endangering information systems, especially those that can be qualified as crime, unequivocally impose the need to build an adequate system for information system protection. Consequences are as unknown as the directions and possibilities of establishing completely new directions, or a new and less well-known payment facility such as digital money, i.e. charge cards. Only future will show whether it is the end of money as we know it, or the revolution of a new payment tool. It is a fact that the electronic market is here to stay.

  14. THE ROLE OF TRUST AND PERCEIVED RISK IN ELECTRONIC COMMERCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICULA DANA LAURA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Trust and risk are very important in consumers' electronic commerce purchasing decisions. How do trust and risk affect an Internet consumer's purchasing decision? To answer this question I’ve developed a theoretical framework describing the trust-based decision-making process a consumer uses when making a purchase from a given site. Consumer disposition to trust, reputation, privacy concerns, security concerns, the information quality of the Website, and the company's reputation, have strong effects on Internet consumers' trust in the Website.

  15. Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

    2017-11-15

    limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Polyandry prevents extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Tom A R; Hurst, Greg D D; Wedell, Nina

    2010-03-09

    Females of most animal species are polyandrous, with individual females usually mating with more than one male. However, the ubiquity of polyandry remains enigmatic because of the potentially high costs to females of multiple mating. Current theory to account for the high prevalence of polyandry largely focuses on its benefits to individual females. There are also higher-level explanations for the high incidence of polyandry-polyandrous clades may speciate more rapidly. Here we test the hypothesis that polyandry may also reduce population extinction risk. We demonstrate that mating with multiple males protects populations of the fruit fly Drosophila pseudoobscura against extinction caused by a "selfish" sex-ratio-distorting element. Thus, the frequency of female multiple mating in nature may be associated not only with individual benefits to females of this behavior but also with increased persistence over time of polyandrous species and populations. Furthermore, we show that female remating behavior can determine the frequency of sex-ratio distorters in populations. This may also be true for many other selfish genetic elements in natural populations.

  17. Gradual extinction reduces Reinstatement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef eShiban

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current study investigated whether gradually reducing the frequency of aversive stimuli during extinction can prevent the return of fear. Thirty-one participants of a three-stage procedure (acquisition, extinction and a reinstatement test on day two were randomly assigned to a standard extinction (SE and gradual extinction (GE procedure. The two groups differed only in the extinction procedure. While the SE group ran through a regular extinction process without any negative events, the frequency of the aversive stimuli during the extinction phase was gradually reduced for the GE group. The unconditioned stimulus was an air blast (5 bar, 10 ms. A spider and a scorpion were used as conditioned stimuli. The outcome variables were contingency ratings and physiological measures (skin conductance response and startle response. There were no differences found between the two groups for the acquisition and extinction phases concerning contingency ratings, SCR, or startle response. Gradual extinction compared to standard extinction significantly reduced the return of fear in the reinstatement test for the startle response but not for skin conductance response or contingency ratings. This study was successful in translating the findings in rodent to humans. The results suggest that the gradual extinction process is suitable for increasing the efficacy of fear extinction.

  18. Is extinction forever?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Patten, Brenda D; Bridge, Eli S; Crawford, Priscilla H C; Hough, Daniel J; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Patten, Michael A

    2015-05-01

    Mistrust of science has seeped into public perception of the most fundamental aspect of conservation-extinction. The term ought to be straightforward, and yet, there is a disconnect between scientific discussion and public views. This is not a mere semantic issue, rather one of communication. Within a population dynamics context, we say that a species went locally extinct, later to document its return. Conveying our findings matters, for when we use local extinction, an essentially nonsensical phrase, rather than extirpation, which is what is meant, then we contribute to, if not create outright, a problem for public understanding of conservation, particularly as local extinction is often shortened to extinction in media sources. The public that receives the message of our research void of context and modifiers comes away with the idea that extinction is not forever or, worse for conservation as a whole, that an extinction crisis has been invented.

  19. Distribution of mammal functional diversity in the Neotropical realm: Influence of land-use and extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Maya, José F; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Medellín, Rodrigo; Ceballos, Gerardo

    2017-01-01

    Functional diversity represents a measure of diversity that incorporates the role of species in an ecosystem, and therefore its dynamics and resilience. Assessing its drivers and spatial variation represents an important step forward in our understanding of functional ecosystem dynamics and it is also necessary to achieve a comprehensive conservation planning. In this paper, we assessed mammal functional diversity for the 218 ecoregions within the Neotropical realm. We evaluated the overall influence and spatial variation of species richness, ecoregion extent, intervention and species at risk on functional diversity. Using ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression modeling approaches, we found that intervened areas and threatened and non-threatened species are the most influential overall drivers of functional diversity. However, we also detected that these variables do not operate equally across scales. Our local analyses indicated both that the variation explained and local coefficients vary spatially depending on the ecoregion and major habitat type. As estimates of functional diversity are based on current distribution of all mammals, negative influence of intervened areas and positive influence of non-threatened species may reflect a potential degradation of functional processes for some ecosystems. Most generally, the negative influence of intervention together with the influence of threatened species indicates that some areas are currently more susceptible to functional diversity loss. Our results help to pinpoint key areas requiring urgent conservation action to reduce natural land-cover loss and areas where threatened species play influential roles on ecosystem functioning.

  20. Modern examples of extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lövei, Gabor L

    2013-01-01

    No species lives forever, and extinction is the ultimate fate of all living species. The fossil record indicates that a recent extinction wave affecting terrestrial vertebrates was parallel with the arrival of modern humans to areas formerly uninhabited by them. These modern instances of extinction...... started at around 40,000 years ago. On continents, large mammals (especially those >50 kg body mass) were affected, while on islands, the impacts were mainly felt by birds. The causes of these extinctions are not well known but hunting, habitat alteration and the introduction of non-native species...... reasons (certain groups do not fossilize) and methodological problems (methods of excavation and identification). Consequently, we can only crudely estimate the current rate of extinction. Nonetheless, it is evident that humans generated a new mass extinction, affecting all species in all habitats, and...

  1. Modern examples of extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lövei, Gabor L

    2013-01-01

    No species lives forever, and extinction is the ultimate fate of all living species. The fossil record indicates that a recent extinction wave affecting terrestrial vertebrates was parallel with the arrival of modern humans to areas formerly uninhabited by them. These modern instances of extinction...... started at around 40,000 years ago. On continents, large mammals (especially those >50 kg body mass) were affected, while on islands, the impacts were mainly felt by birds. The causes of these extinctions are not well known but hunting, habitat alteration and the introduction of non-native species...... are the main causes of extinction. Our knowledge about extinctions is very incomplete, due to bias in research by taxonomy (vertebrate groups are better studied), geography (northern areas have received more attention), habitat (terrestrial habitats are better known than marine ones), as well as biological...

  2. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  3. Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…

  4. How humans drive speciation as well as extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bull, Joseph William; Maron, M.

    2016-01-01

    A central topic for conservation science is evaluating how human activities influence global species diversity. Humanity exacerbates extinction rates. But by what mechanisms does humanity drive the emergence of new species? We review human-mediated speciation, compare speciation and known extinct...... and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity....

  5. Molar extinction coefficients of some fatty acids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandhu, G.K.; Singh, K.; Lark, B.S.;

    2002-01-01

    ) and stearic acid (C18H36O2), has been measured at the photon energies 81, 356, 511, 662, 1173 and 1332 keV. Experimental values for the molar extinction coefficient, the effective atomic number and the electron density have been derived and compared with theoretical calculations. There is good agreement...

  6. New data on the “silver-bell cricket” (Orthoptera, Gryllidae, a forgotten and overlooked cricket subject to a high risk of extinction in western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cordero, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Gryllodinus kerkennensis (Finot, 1893 presents a disjunct distribution in the Southern part of the Western Palearctic from North Africa up to Central Asia inhabiting arid, semidesert or desert land mostly associated with saline soils near water sources of lagoons or river beds depressions. The species was not recorded in Western Europe (Iberian Peninsula since 1936 and up to now it is currently excluded from all red list books for Orthopteran conservation. In this paper we report a few and localised populations of this cricket in Castilla-La Mancha inhabiting sandy shores of hiper-saline lagoons. We also provide information on its biometrics, phenology, ecology and behaviour including data of all collection specimens of the Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN. Because of its audible and particular song, we propose campaigns of night listening points to search for this species in other potential sites where it could be present. We believe that this species may be subject to a high risk of extinction in the Iberian Peninsula, and thus in the whole Western Europe. This is because of their restricted populations and the fragility of its specific habitat. We propose an urgent integral protection and the inclusion of the species in the lists of highly endangered invertebrate species.

    Gryllodinus kerkennensis (Finot, 1893 presenta una distribución disjunta a lo largo de la franja meridional y occidental del Paleártico, desde África del Norte hasta Asia Central, habitando zonas áridas, desiertos o semi-desiertos, principalmente asociado a suelos salinos próximos a masas de agua de lagunas o depresiones de cuencas fluviales. Esta especie no se registraba en Europa occidental (Península Ibérica desde 1936 y en la actualidad está excluida de todas las listas de libros rojos para la conservación de Ortópteros. En este trabajo describimos varias poblaciones aisladas de este grillo en Castilla-La Mancha en orillas

  7. Extinction and ecosystem function in the marine benthos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solan, Martin; Cardinale, Bradley J; Downing, Amy L; Engelhardt, Katharina A M; Ruesink, Jennifer L; Srivastava, Diane S

    2004-11-12

    Rapid changes in biodiversity are occurring globally, yet the ecological impacts of diversity loss are poorly understood. Here we use data from marine invertebrate communities to parameterize models that predict how extinctions will affect sediment bioturbation, a process vital to the persistence of aquatic communities. We show that species extinction is generally expected to reduce bioturbation, but the magnitude of reduction depends on how the functional traits of individual species covary with their risk of extinction. As a result, the particular cause of extinction and the order in which species are lost ultimately govern the ecosystem-level consequences of biodiversity loss.

  8. Time to extinction of bird populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sæther, B-E.; Engen, S.; Møller, A.P.; Visser, M.E.; Matthysen, E.; Fiedler, W.; Lambrechts, M.M.; Becker, P.H.; Brommer, J.E.; Dickinson, J.; du Feu, C.; Gehlbach, F.R.; Merilä, J.; Rendell, W.; Robertson, R.J.; Thomson, D.L.; Török, J.

    2005-01-01

    The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the ex

  9. Time to extinction of bird populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sæther, B-E.; Engen, S.; Møller, A.P.; Visser, M.E.; Matthysen, E.; Fiedler, W.; Lambrechts, M.M.; Becker, P.H.; Brommer, J.E.; Dickinson, J.; du Feu, C.; Gehlbach, F.R.; Merilä, J.; Rendell, W.; Robertson, R.J.; Thomson, D.L.; Török, J.

    2005-01-01

    The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the

  10. Ecological model of extinctions

    CERN Document Server

    Abramson, G

    1997-01-01

    We present numerical results based on a simplified ecological system in evolution, showing features of extinction similar to that claimed for the biosystem on Earth. In the model each species consists of a population in interaction with the others, that reproduces and evolves in time. Each species is simultaneously a predator and a prey in a food chain. Mutations that change the interactions are supposed to occur randomly at a low rate. Extinctions of populations result naturally from the predator-prey dynamics. The model is not pinned in a fitness variable, and natural selection arises from the dynamics.

  11. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    OpenAIRE

    Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; Graswinckel, M. F.; M.R. de Baar

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies...

  12. Context, Learning, and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershman, Samuel J.; Blei, David M.; Niv, Yael

    2010-01-01

    A. Redish et al. (2007) proposed a reinforcement learning model of context-dependent learning and extinction in conditioning experiments, using the idea of "state classification" to categorize new observations into states. In the current article, the authors propose an interpretation of this idea in terms of normative statistical inference. They…

  13. Unexpectedly many extinct hominins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokma, Folmer; van den Brink, Valentijn; Stadler, Tanja

    2012-09-01

    Recent studies indicate that Neanderthal and Denisova hominins may have been separate species, while debate continues on the status of Homo floresiensis. The decade-long debate between "splitters," who recognize over 20 hominin species, and "lumpers," who maintain that all these fossils belong to just a few lineages, illustrates that we do not know how many extinct hominin species to expect. Here, we present probability distributions for the number of speciation events and the number of contemporary species along a branch of a phylogeny. With estimates of hominin speciation and extincton rates, we then show that the expected total number of extinct hominin species is 8, but may be as high as 27. We also show that it is highly unlikely that three very recent species disappeared due to natural, background extinction. This may indicate that human-like remains are too easily considered distinct species. Otherwise, the evidence suggesting that Neanderthal and the Denisova hominin represent distinct species implies a recent wave of extinctions, ostensibly driven by the only survivor, H. sapiens. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  14. Ecology: Dynamics of Indirect Extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, Jose M

    2015-12-01

    The experimental identification of the mechanism by which extinctions of predators trigger further predator extinctions emphasizes the role of indirect effects between species in disturbed ecosystems. It also has deep consequences for the hidden magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis.

  15. Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

    2016-10-01

    Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience.

  16. An Investigation of Response Bias Associated with Electronically Delivered Risk-Tolerance Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John E. Grable

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available

    A randomized experimental study was designed to compare risk-tolerance scores for those who completed a paper-and-pen risk-tolerance assessment instrument (i.e., the control group to those who answered the same questions using an electronic method. It was hypothesized that the possibility of an electronic bias might be present. Controlling for financial knowledge, which was positively associated with risk tolerance, men were found to report much higher risk-tolerance scores than women when responding to electronically delivered questions. Results suggest that financial therapists ought to consider this possibility as a factor that influences responses to risk assessments, especially as they incorporate additional technological evaluation tools into their practice.

  17. Mass Extinctions Past and Present.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allmon, Warren Douglas

    1987-01-01

    Discusses some parallels that seem to exist between mass extinction recognizable in the geologic record and the impending extinction of a significant proportion of the earth's species due largely to tropical deforestation. Describes some recent theories of causal factors and periodicities in mass extinction. (Author/TW)

  18. The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turvey, Samuel T.; Fritz, Susanne A.

    2011-01-01

    Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat. PMID:21807737

  19. Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

    2003-01-01

    Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

  20. Neuronal circuits of fear extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herry, Cyril; Ferraguti, Francesco; Singewald, Nicolas; Letzkus, Johannes J; Ehrlich, Ingrid; Lüthi, Andreas

    2010-02-01

    Fear extinction is a form of inhibitory learning that allows for the adaptive control of conditioned fear responses. Although fear extinction is an active learning process that eventually leads to the formation of a consolidated extinction memory, it is a fragile behavioural state. Fear responses can recover spontaneously or subsequent to environmental influences, such as context changes or stress. Understanding the neuronal substrates of fear extinction is of tremendous clinical relevance, as extinction is the cornerstone of psychological therapy of several anxiety disorders and because the relapse of maladaptative fear and anxiety is a major clinical problem. Recent research has begun to shed light on the molecular and cellular processes underlying fear extinction. In particular, the acquisition, consolidation and expression of extinction memories are thought to be mediated by highly specific neuronal circuits embedded in a large-scale brain network including the amygdala, prefrontal cortex, hippocampus and brain stem. Moreover, recent findings indicate that the neuronal circuitry of extinction is developmentally regulated. Here, we review emerging concepts of the neuronal circuitry of fear extinction, and highlight novel findings suggesting that the fragile phenomenon of extinction can be converted into a permanent erasure of fear memories. Finally, we discuss how research on genetic animal models of impaired extinction can further our understanding of the molecular and genetic bases of human anxiety disorders.

  1. Atmospheric extinction in simulation tools for solar tower plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanrieder, Natalie; Wilbert, Stefan; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Schnell, Franziska; Guevara, Diana Mancera; Buck, Reiner; Giuliano, Stefano; Pitz-Paal, Robert

    2017-06-01

    Atmospheric extinction causes significant radiation losses between the heliostat field and the receiver in a solar tower plants. These losses vary with site and time. State of the art is that in ray-tracing and plant optimization tools, atmospheric extinction is included by choosing between few constant standard atmospheric conditions. Even though some tools allow the consideration of site and time dependent extinction data, such data sets are nearly never available. This paper summarizes and compares the most common model equations implemented in several ray-tracing tools. There are already several methods developed and published to measure extinction on-site. An overview of the existing methods is also given here. Ray-tracing simulations of one exemplary tower plant at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA) are presented to estimate the plant yield deviations between simulations using standard model equations instead of extinction time series. For PSA, the effect of atmospheric extinction accounts for losses between 1.6 and 7 %. This range is caused by considering overload dumping or not. Applying standard clear or hazy model equations instead of extinction time series lead to an underestimation of the annual plant yield at PSA. The discussion of the effect of extinction in tower plants has to include overload dumping. Situations in which overload dumping occurs are mostly connected to high radiation levels and low atmospheric extinction. Therefore it can be recommended that project developers should consider site and time dependent extinction data especially on hazy sites. A reduced uncertainty of the plant yield prediction can significantly reduce costs due to smaller risk margins for financing and EPCs. The generation of extinction data for several locations in form of representative yearly time series or geographical maps should be further elaborated.

  2. Loss of animal seed dispersal increases extinction risk in a tropical tree species due to pervasive negative density dependence across life stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caughlin, T Trevor; Ferguson, Jake M; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Zuidema, Pieter A; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Levey, Douglas J

    2015-01-07

    Overhunting in tropical forests reduces populations of vertebrate seed dispersers. If reduced seed dispersal has a negative impact on tree population viability, overhunting could lead to altered forest structure and dynamics, including decreased biodiversity. However, empirical data showing decreased animal-dispersed tree abundance in overhunted forests contradict demographic models which predict minimal sensitivity of tree population growth rate to early life stages. One resolution to this discrepancy is that seed dispersal determines spatial aggregation, which could have demographic consequences for all life stages. We tested the impact of dispersal loss on population viability of a tropical tree species, Miliusa horsfieldii, currently dispersed by an intact community of large mammals in a Thai forest. We evaluated the effect of spatial aggregation for all tree life stages, from seeds to adult trees, and constructed simulation models to compare population viability with and without animal-mediated seed dispersal. In simulated populations, disperser loss increased spatial aggregation by fourfold, leading to increased negative density dependence across the life cycle and a 10-fold increase in the probability of extinction. Given that the majority of tree species in tropical forests are animal-dispersed, overhunting will potentially result in forests that are fundamentally different from those existing now.

  3. Risk Analysis of Flare Flame-out Condition in a Gas Process Facility Analyse des risques des conditions d’extinction de torche au sein d’une installation de traitement de gaz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zadakbar O.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Flaring is a common method of disposal of flammable waste gases in the downstream industries. Flare flame out (flame lift-off or blow-outs often occurs causing toxic vapors to discharge. The toxic gases released may have hazardous effects on the surrounding environment. To study the effect of inhalation exposure of these toxic gases on human health, the four steps of the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency framework with the field data to quantify the cancer and non-cancer health risks are integrated in this paper. As a part of exposure assessment, gas dispersion modeling using AERMOD and UDM-PHAST is applied in two different conditions of normal flaring and flare flame out during a particular climate condition in Khangiran region. Recommendations to avoid flare flame out conditions are also presented here. Le torchage est un procédé courant d’élimination des gaz résiduaires inflammables dans les industries de traitement. L’extinction de la torche (par décollage ou soufflage de flamme provoque souvent une émission de vapeurs toxiques. Ces gaz toxiques libérés peuvent présenter des effets dangereux sur le milieu environnant. Pour étudier l’effet d’une exposition par inhalation de ces gaz toxiques sur la santé, cet article croise les quatre étapes de la démarche de l’EPA (Environmental Protection Agency, Agence de protection de l’environnement avec les données d’exploitation afin de quantifier le risque sanitaire cancérologique et non cancérologique. Dans le cadre de l’estimation d’exposition, une modélisation de dispersion des gaz utilisant AERMOD et UDM-PHAST est évaluée dans deux configurations différentes de torchage normal et d’extinction de torche à l’occasion de conditions climatiques particulières dans la région du Khangiran. L’article propose également des recommandations destinées à éviter les conditions d’une extinction de flamme de torche.

  4. Largest Particle Simulations Downgrade the Runaway Electron Risk for ITER

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Jian; Wang, Yulei; Yang, Guangwen; Zheng, Jiangshan; Yao, Yicun; Zheng, Yifeng; Liu, Zhao; Liu, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Fusion energy will be the ultimate clean energy source for mankind. One of the most visible concerns of the future fusion device is the threat of deleterious runaway electrons (REs) produced during unexpected disruptions of the fusion plasma. Both efficient long-term algorithms and super-large scale computing power are necessary to reveal the complex dynamics of REs in a realistic fusion reactor. In the present study, we deploy the world's fastest supercomputer, Sunway TaihuLight, and the newly developed relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to carry out long-term particle simulations of 10^7 sampled REs in 6D phase space, which involves simulation scale of 10^18 particle-steps, the largest ever achieved in fusion research. Our simulations show that in a realistic fusion reactor, the concern of REs is not as serious as previously thought. Specifically, REs are confined much better than previously predicted and the maximum average energy is in the range of 150MeV, less than half of previous estimate.

  5. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  6. Extinction intensity, selectivity and their combined macroevolutionary influence in the fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Chang, Ellen T; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; Pruss, Sara B

    2016-10-01

    The macroevolutionary effects of extinction derive from both intensity of taxonomic losses and selectivity of losses with respect to ecology, physiology and/or higher taxonomy. Increasingly, palaeontologists are using logistic regression to quantify extinction selectivity because the selectivity metric is independent of extinction intensity and multiple predictor variables can be assessed simultaneously. We illustrate the use of logistic regression with an analysis of physiological buffering capacity and extinction risk in the Phanerozoic marine fossil record. We propose the geometric mean of extinction intensity and selectivity as a metric for the influence of extinction events. The end-Permian mass extinction had the largest influence on the physiological composition of the fauna owing to its combination of high intensity and strong selectivity. In addition to providing a quantitative measure of influence to compare among past events, this approach provides an avenue for quantifying the risk posed by the emerging biodiversity crisis that goes beyond a simple projection of taxonomic losses.

  7. Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific......Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate...... evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending...

  8. Extinction events can accelerate evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Lehman

    Full Text Available Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term.

  9. Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term. PMID:26266804

  10. Impaired fear extinction learning and cortico-amygdala circuit abnormalities in a common genetic mouse strain

    OpenAIRE

    Hefner, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Juhasz, Jaynann; Norcross, Maxine; Karlsson, Rose-Marie; Saksida, Lisa M.; Bussey, Timothy J.; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a form of new learning that results in the inhibition of conditioned fear. Trait deficits in fear extinction are a risk factor for anxiety disorders. There are few examples of naturally-occurring animal models of impaired extinction. The present study compared fear extinction in a panel of inbred mouse strains. This strain survey revealed an impairment in fear extinction in 129/SvImJ (129S1). The phenotypic specificity of this deficit was evaluated by comparing 129S1 and C5...

  11. Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD.

  12. Extinction cascades partially estimate herbivore losses in a complete Lepidoptera--plant food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Ian S; Altermatt, Florian

    2013-08-01

    The loss of species from an ecological community can have cascading effects leading to the extinction of other species. Specialist herbivores are highly diverse and may be particularly susceptible to extinction due to host plant loss. We used a bipartite food web of 900 Lepidoptera (butterfly and moth) herbivores and 2403 plant species from Central Europe to simulate the cascading effect of plant extinctions on Lepidoptera extinctions. Realistic extinction sequences of plants, incorporating red-list status, range size, and native status, altered subsequent Lepidoptera extinctions. We compared simulated Lepidoptera extinctions to the number of actual regional Lepidoptera extinctions and found that all predicted scenarios underestimated total observed extinctions but accurately predicted observed extinctions attributed to host loss (n = 8, 14%). Likely, many regional Lepidoptera extinctions occurred for reasons other than loss of host plant alone, such as climate change and habitat loss. Ecological networks can be useful in assessing a component of extinction risk to herbivores based on host loss, but further factors may be equally important.

  13. On the risk of extinction of a wild plant species through spillover of a biological control agent: analysis of an ecosystem compartment model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chalak-Haghighi, M.; Hemerik, L.; Werf, van der W.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2008-01-01

    Invasive plant species can be controlled by introducing one or more of their natural enemies (herbivores) from their native range; however such introduction entails the risk that the introduced natural enemy will attack indigenous plant species in the area of introduction. The effect of spillover of

  14. On the risk of extinction of a wild plant species through spillover of a biological control agent: Analysis of an ecosystem compartment model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chalak, M.; Hemerik, L.; Werf, van der W.; Ruijs, A.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2010-01-01

    Invasive plant species can be controlled by introducing natural enemies (insect herbivores) from their native range. However, such introduction entails the risk that the introduced herbivores attack indigenous plant species in the area of introduction. Here, we study the effect of spillover of a her

  15. Prevalence and risk factors of electronic cigarette use among adolescents: Data from four Swedish municipalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geidne Susanna

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available AIMS – To assess the prevalence rates and risk factors of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette use, with special focus on e-cigarettes containing nicotine, among grade 9 students (aged 15–16 years in four different municipalities in Sweden.

  16. Hazardous substances in electronics: the effects of European Union risk regulation on China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biedenkopf, K.

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that European Union (E) risk regulation of hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment (FEE) was both a trigger and formative factor in the devel opment of similar Chinese regulation. The attractiveness and global interdependence of the EU market in FEE impelled a

  17. Risk factors for medication errors in the electronic and manual prescription 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Cris Renata Grou; de Melo, Eveline Maria Magalhães; de Aguiar, Lucas Barbosa; Pinho, Diana Lúcia Moura; Stival, Marina Morato

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to compare electronic and manual prescriptions of a public hospital of Brasilia, identifying risk factors for the occurrence of medication errors. Method: descriptive-exploratory, comparative and retrospective study. Data collection occurred from July 2012 to January 2013, using an instrument for the review of the information contained in medical records related to the medication process. A total of 190 manual and 199 electronic records composed the sample, with 2027 prescriptions each. Results: compared to the manual prescription, a significant reduction was observed in the risk factors after implantation of the electronic prescription, in items such as "lack of the form of dilution" (71.1% to 22.3%) and "prescription with brand name" (99.5% to 31.5%). Conversely, the risk factors "no check" and "lack of CRM of the prescriber" increased. The lack of the allergy registration and the occurrences related to medication were the same for both groups. Conclusion: generally, the use of the electronic prescription system was associated with a significant reduction in risk factors for medication errors, concerning the following aspects: illegibility, prescription with brand name and presence of essential items that provide a safe and effective prescription. PMID:27508913

  18. Measuring Extinction with ALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; McGraw, J. T.; Gimmestad, G. G.; Roberts, D.; Stewart, J.; Smith, J.; Fitch, J.

    2007-12-01

    ALE (Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction) is deployed at the University of New Mexico's (UNM) Campus Observatory in Albuquerque, NM. It has begun a year-long testing phase prior deployment at McDonald Observatory in support of the CCD/Transit Instrument II (CTI-II). ALE is designed to produce a high-precision measurement of atmospheric absorption and scattering above the observatory site every ten minutes of every moderately clear night. LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) is the VIS/UV/IR analog of radar, using a laser, telescope and time-gated photodetector instead of a radio transmitter, dish and receiver. In the case of ALE -- an elastic backscatter LIDAR -- 20ns-long, eye-safe laser pulses are launched 2500 times per second from a 0.32m transmitting telescope co-mounted with a 50mm short-range receiver on an alt-az mounted 0.67m long-range receiver. Photons from the laser pulse are scattered and absorbed as the pulse propagates through the atmosphere, a portion of which are scattered into the field of view of the short- and long-range receiver telescopes and detected by a photomultiplier. The properties of a given volume of atmosphere along the LIDAR path are inferred from both the altitude-resolved backscatter signal as well as the attenuation of backscatter signal from altitudes above it. We present ALE profiles from the commissioning phase and demonstrate some of the astronomically interesting atmospheric information that can be gleaned from these data, including, but not limited to, total line-of-sight extinction. This project is funded by NSF Grant 0421087.

  19. Investigating the role of electronic insurance on decreasing exporting charges risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farideh MosallaiZade

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the electronic insurance (EI is one the electronic services, which is used in most countries, and that is one effective factor in developing the exporting products and services. On the other hand, the incurrence industry and very especially EI represent their importance both domestically and internationally. One of the ways for transferring the exporting risks is to transfer the risks to the insurer. This paper examines the characteristics of EI and the effects of decreasing the exporting risk charges. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in the form of Likert scale, the validity of the questionnaire is validated by some the experts' viewpoints and the Cronbach' alpha is measure as 0.794. The results of applying Freedman test have disclosed that facilitating export activities was the most important factor followed by access to target export market information.

  20. Advanced risk assessment of the effects of graphite fibers on electronic and electric equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M.; Kaplan, L.

    1980-01-01

    An assessment of the risk associated with accidents involving aircraft with carbon fiber composite structural components is examined. The individual fiber segments cause electrical and electronic equipment to fail under certain operating conditions. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to computer the risk. Aircraft accidents with fire, release of carbon fiber material, entrainment of carbon fibers in a smoke plume transport of fibers downwind, transfer of some fibers/into the the interior of buildings, failures of electrical and electronic equipment, and economic impact of failures are discussed. Risk profiles were prepared for individual airports and the Nation. The vulnerability of electrical transmission equipment to carbon fiber incursion and aircraft accident total costs is investigated.

  1. The end-Permian mass extinction: A complex, multicausal extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erwin, D. H.

    1994-01-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most extensive in the history of life and remains one of the most complex. Understanding its causes is particularly important because it anchors the putative 26-m.y. pattern of periodic extinction. However, there is no good evidence for an impact and this extinction appears to be more complex than others, involving at least three phases. The first began with the onset of a marine regression during the Late Permian and resulting elimination of most marine basins, reduction in habitat area, and increased climatic instability; the first pulse of tetrapod extinctions occurred in South Africa at this time. The second phase involved increased regression in many areas (although apparently not in South China) and heightened climatic instability and environmental degradation. Release of gas hydrates, oxidation of marine carbon, and the eruption of the Siberian flood basalts occurred during this phase. The final phase of the extinction episode began with the earliest Triassic marine regression and destruction of nearshore continental habitats. Some evidence suggests oceanic anoxia may have developed during the final phase of the extinction, although it appears to have been insufficient to the sole cause of the extinction.

  2. Functional Extinctions of Species in Ecological Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Säterberg, Torbjörn

    2016-01-01

    Current rates of extinctions are estimated to be around 1000 times higher than background rates that would occur without anthropogenic impacts. These extinction rates refer to the traditional view of extinctions, i.e. numerical extinctions. This thesis is about another type of extinctions: functional extinctions. Those occur when the abundance of a species is too small to uphold the species’ ecologically interactive role. I have taken a theoretical approach and used dynamical models to invest...

  3. Electronic health records: Is it a risk worth taking in healthcare delivery?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raposo, Vera Lúcia

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The electronic health record represents a major change in healthcare delivery, either for health professionals and health institutions, either for patients. In this essay we will mainly focus on its consequences regarding patient safety and medical liability. In this particular domain the electronic health record has dual effects: on one side prevents medical errors and, in this sense, promotes patient safety and protects the doctor from lawsuits; but, on the other side, when not used properly, it may also generate other kind of errors, potentially threatening patient safety and, therefore, increasing the risk of juridical liability for the physician. This paper intends to underline the main human errors, technologic mistakes and medical faults that may occur while using the electronic health record and the ways to overcome them, also explaining how the electronic health record may be used in court during a judicial procg.

  4. A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that

  5. Mass Extinctions in Earth's History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. D.

    2002-12-01

    Mass extinctions are short intervals of elevated species death. Possible causes of Earth's mass extinctions are both external (astronomical) and internal (tectonic and biotic changes from planetary mechanisms). Paleontologists have identified five "major" mass extinctions (>50 die-off in less than a million years) and more than 20 other minor events over the past 550 million years. Earlier major extinction events undoubtedly also occurred, but we have no fossil record; these were probably associated with, for example, the early heavy bombardment that cleared out the solar system, the advent of oxygen in the atmosphere, and various "snowball Earth" events. Mass extinctions are viewed as both destructive (species death ) and constructive, in that they allow evolutionary innovation in the wake of species disappearances. From an astrobiological perspective, mass extinctions must be considered as able both to reduce biodiversity and even potentially end life on any planet. Of the five major mass extinctions identified on Earth, only one (the Cretaceous/Tertiary event 65 million years ago that famously killed off the dinosaurs ) is unambiguously related to the impact of an asteroid or comet ( 10-km diameter). The Permian/Triassic (250 Myr ago) and Triassic/Jurassic (202 Myr ago) events are now the center of debate between those favoring impact and those suggesting large volume flooding by basaltic lavas. The final two events, Ordovician (440 Myr ago) and Devonian (370 Myr ago) have no accepted causal mechanisms.

  6. The learning of fear extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furini, Cristiane; Myskiw, Jociane; Izquierdo, Ivan

    2014-11-01

    Recent work on the extinction of fear-motivated learning places emphasis on its putative circuitry and on its modulation. Extinction is the learned inhibition of retrieval of previously acquired responses. Fear extinction is used as a major component of exposure therapy in the treatment of fear memories such as those of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). It is initiated and maintained by interactions between the hippocampus, basolateral amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, which involve feedback regulation of the latter by the other two areas. Fear extinction depends on NMDA receptor activation. It is positively modulated by d-serine acting on the glycine site of NMDA receptors and blocked by AP5 (2-amino-5-phosphono propionate) in the three structures. In addition, histamine acting on H2 receptors and endocannabinoids acting on CB1 receptors in the three brain areas mentioned, and muscarinic cholinergic fibers from the medial septum to hippocampal CA1 positively modulate fear extinction. Importantly, fear extinction can be made state-dependent on circulating epinephrine, which may play a role in situations of stress. Exposure to a novel experience can strongly enhance the consolidation of fear extinction through a synaptic tagging and capture mechanism; this may be useful in the therapy of states caused by fear memory like PTSD.

  7. Local extinction of dragonfly and damselfly populations in low- and high-quality habitat patches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhonen, Jukka; Hilli-Lukkarinen, Milla; Korkeamäki, Esa; Kuitunen, Markku; Kullas, Johanna; Penttinen, Jouni; Salmela, Jukka

    2010-08-01

    Understanding the risk of extinction of a single population is an important problem in both theoretical and applied ecology. Local extinction risk depends on several factors, including population size, demographic or environmental stochasticity, natural catastrophe, or the loss of genetic diversity. The probability of local extinction may also be higher in low-quality sink habitats than in high-quality source habitats. We tested this hypothesis by comparing local extinction rates of 15 species of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) between 1930-1975 and 1995-2003 in central Finland. Local extinction rates were higher in low-quality than in high-quality habitats. Nevertheless, for the three most common species there were no differences in extinction rates between low- and high-quality habitats. Our results suggest that a good understanding of habitat quality is crucial for the conservation of species in heterogeneous landscapes.

  8. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

  9. Extinction, relapse, and behavioral momentum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podlesnik, Christopher A; Shahan, Timothy A

    2010-05-01

    Previous experiments on behavioral momentum have shown that relative resistance to extinction of operant behavior in the presence of a discriminative stimulus depends upon the baseline rate or magnitude of reinforcement associated with that stimulus (i.e., the Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation). Recently, we have shown that relapse of operant behavior in reinstatement, resurgence, and context renewal preparations also is a function of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations. In this paper we present new data examining the role of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations on resistance to extinction and relapse using a variety of baseline training conditions and relapse operations. Furthermore, we evaluate the adequacy of a behavioral momentum based model in accounting for the results. The model suggests that relapse occurs as a result of a decrease in the disruptive impact of extinction precipitated by a change in circumstances associated with extinction, and that the degree of relapse is a function of the pre-extinction baseline Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse were greater in the presence of stimuli associated with more favorable conditions of reinforcement and were positively related to one another. In addition, the model did a good job in accounting for these effects. Thus, behavioral momentum theory may provide a useful quantitative approach for characterizing how differential reinforcement conditions contribute to relapse of operant behavior.

  10. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  11. Risk factor detection for heart disease by applying text analytics in electronic medical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torii, Manabu; Fan, Jung-Wei; Yang, Wei-Li; Lee, Theodore; Wiley, Matthew T; Zisook, Daniel S; Huang, Yang

    2015-12-01

    In the United States, about 600,000 people die of heart disease every year. The annual cost of care services, medications, and lost productivity reportedly exceeds 108.9 billion dollars. Effective disease risk assessment is critical to prevention, care, and treatment planning. Recent advancements in text analytics have opened up new possibilities of using the rich information in electronic medical records (EMRs) to identify relevant risk factors. The 2014 i2b2/UTHealth Challenge brought together researchers and practitioners of clinical natural language processing (NLP) to tackle the identification of heart disease risk factors reported in EMRs. We participated in this track and developed an NLP system by leveraging existing tools and resources, both public and proprietary. Our system was a hybrid of several machine-learning and rule-based components. The system achieved an overall F1 score of 0.9185, with a recall of 0.9409 and a precision of 0.8972.

  12. Path Forward to Space Solar Power using the O'Neill - Glaser Model Modified for Climate Change Demand and Considering the Increasing Risk of Human Self-Extinction if Confined to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Nall, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The cost of energy is humanity's economic exchange rate with the universe. Space solar power is the first great step that our technological species has to utilize the energy of its star. The classic Peter Glaser Solar Power Satellite, SPS, and later designs collect a large area of solar energy in space and beam it back to Earth for use in the electric grid, but even with optimistic launch costs and technology innovation a clear economic path is not evident using Earth launch of SPS. O Neill in 1969 solved the transportation costs problem by a model that uses lunar and asteroid materials to build SPS and locates the labor force permanently in space (O Neill free space habitats). This solution closes the economics and predicts large profits after 17-35 years. However the costs of time have up to now prevented this solution. We discuss a strategy to move forward in SPS with the motivations to stop global warming and prevent human selfextinction. There are near term steps that can be taken that place us on this path forward. First, we must reevaluate the technologies for the classic model and update the parameters to current technology. As technological capability continues to increase exponentially, we need to understand when the monetary potential energy hills are small as the technology gets larger. But the chance for self-extinction, if humanity remains in a single vulnerable habitat, also increased exponentially with time. The path forward is to identify investment points while assessing the risks of non-action.

  13. Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

    2007-12-01

    A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as

  14. Potential suitable areas of giant ground sloths dropped before its extinction in South America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Varela, Sara; Nogues, David Bravo

    2012-01-01

    Here we analyze the effects that climatic changes through last ice age had on the potential distributions and extinction risk dynamics of two extinct species of South American giant ground sloths, Eremotherium laurillardi and Megatherium americanum. We tested the assumption of stability of the cl...

  15. The Effect of the Extinction Procedure in Function-Based Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, Donna M.; Umbreit, John; Ferro, Jolenea B.; Liaupsin, Carl J.; Lane, Kathleen L.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examined the contribution of the extinction procedure in function-based interventions implemented in the general education classrooms of three at-risk elementary-aged students. Function-based interventions included antecedent adjustments, reinforcement procedures, and function-matched extinction procedures. Using a combined ABC…

  16. The extinction of the dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusatte, Stephen L; Butler, Richard J; Barrett, Paul M; Carrano, Matthew T; Evans, David C; Lloyd, Graeme T; Mannion, Philip D; Norell, Mark A; Peppe, Daniel J; Upchurch, Paul; Williamson, Thomas E

    2015-05-01

    Non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago, geologically coincident with the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) during an interval of massive volcanic eruptions and changes in temperature and sea level. There has long been fervent debate about how these events affected dinosaurs. We review a wealth of new data accumulated over the past two decades, provide updated and novel analyses of long-term dinosaur diversity trends during the latest Cretaceous, and discuss an emerging consensus on the extinction's tempo and causes. Little support exists for a global, long-term decline across non-avian dinosaur diversity prior to their extinction at the end of the Cretaceous. However, restructuring of latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas in North America led to reduced diversity of large-bodied herbivores, perhaps making communities more susceptible to cascading extinctions. The abruptness of the dinosaur extinction suggests a key role for the bolide impact, although the coarseness of the fossil record makes testing the effects of Deccan volcanism difficult.

  17. Measuring Galactic Extinction A Test

    CERN Document Server

    Arce, H G; Arce, Hector G.; Goodman, Alyssa A.

    1999-01-01

    We test the recently published all-sky reddening map of Schlegel, Finkbeiner & Davis (1998 [SFD]) using the extinction study of a region in the Taurus dark cloud complex by Arce & Goodman (1999 [AG]). In their study, AG use four different techniques to measure the amount and structure of the extinction toward Taurus, and all four techniques agree very well. Thus we believe that the AG results are a truthful representation of the extinction in the region and can be used to test the reliability of the SFD reddening map. The results of our test show that the SFD all-sky reddening map, which is based on data from COBE/DIRBE and IRAS/ISSA, overestimates the reddening by a factor of 1.3 to 1.5 in regions of smooth extinction with A_V > 0.5 mag. In some regions of steep extinction gradients the SFD map underestimates the reddening value, probably due to its low spatial resolution. We expect that the astronomical community will be using the SFD reddening map extensively. We offer this Letter as a cautionary n...

  18. Carriers of the astronomical 2175 ? extinction feature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, J; Dai, Z; Ernie, R; Browning, N; Graham, G; Weber, P; Smith, J; Hutcheon, I; Ishii, H; Bajt, S; Floss, C; Stadermann, F

    2004-07-20

    The 2175 {angstrom} extinction feature is by far the strongest spectral signature of interstellar dust observed by astronomers. Forty years after its discovery the origin of the feature and the nature of the carrier remain controversial. The feature is enigmatic because although its central wavelength is almost invariant its bandwidth varies strongly from one sightline to another, suggesting multiple carriers or a single carrier with variable properties. Using a monochromated transmission electron microscope and valence electron energy-loss spectroscopy we have detected a 5.7 eV (2175 {angstrom}) feature in submicrometer-sized interstellar grains within interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere. The carriers are organic carbon and amorphous silicates that are abundant and closely associated with one another both in IDPs and in the interstellar medium. Multiple carriers rather than a single carrier may explain the invariant central wavelength and variable bandwidth of the astronomical 2175 {angstrom} feature.

  19. Risk factors for radiotherapy incidents and impact of an online electronic reporting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, David W; Cheetham, Lynn; te Marvelde, Luc; Bressel, Mathias; Kron, Tomas; Gill, Suki; Tai, Keen Hun; Ball, David; Rose, William; Silva, Linas; Foroudi, Farshad

    2014-08-01

    To ascertain the rate, type, significance, trends and the potential risk factors associated with radiotherapy incidents in a large academic department. Data for all radiotherapy activities from July 2001 to January 2011 were reviewed from radiotherapy incident reporting forms. Patient and treatment data were obtained from the radiotherapy record and verification database (MOSAIQ) and the patient database (HOSPRO). Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine variables associated with radiotherapy incidents. In that time, 65,376 courses of radiotherapy were delivered with a reported incident rate of 2.64 per 100 courses. The rate of incidents per course increased (1.96 per 100 courses to 3.52 per 100 courses, p5% deviation in dose (10.50 to 2.75%, p<0.001) had decreased after the introduction of an online electronic reporting system. The following variables were associated with an increased rate of incidents: afternoon treatment time, paediatric patients, males, inpatients, palliative plans, head-and-neck, skin, sarcoma and haematological malignancies. In general, complex plans were associated with higher incidence rates. Radiotherapy incidents were infrequent and most did not result in significant dose deviation. A number of risk factors were identified and these could be used to highlight high-risk cases in the future. Introduction of an online electronic reporting system resulted in a significant increase in the number of incidents being reported. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

    2015-07-01

    Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping

  1. Identifying primary care patients at risk for future diabetes and cardiovascular disease using electronic health records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrader Peter

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prevention of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD is possible but identification of at-risk patients for targeting interventions is a challenge in primary care. Methods We analyzed electronic health record (EHR data for 122,715 patients from 12 primary care practices. We defined patients with risk factor clustering using metabolic syndrome (MetS characteristics defined by NCEP-ATPIII criteria; if missing, we used surrogate characteristics, and validated this approach by directly measuring risk factors in a subset of 154 patients. For subjects with at least 3 of 5 MetS criteria measured at baseline (2003-2004, we defined 3 categories: No MetS (0 criteria; At-risk-for MetS (1-2 criteria; and MetS (≥ 3 criteria. We examined new diabetes and CHD incidence, and resource utilization over the subsequent 3-year period (2005-2007 using age-sex-adjusted regression models to compare outcomes by MetS category. Results After excluding patients with diabetes/CHD at baseline, 78,293 patients were eligible for analysis. EHR-defined MetS had 73% sensitivity and 91% specificity for directly measured MetS. Diabetes incidence was 1.4% in No MetS; 4.0% in At-risk-for MetS; and 11.0% in MetS (p MetS vs No MetS = 6.86 [6.06-7.76]; CHD incidence was 3.2%, 5.3%, and 6.4% respectively (p Conclusion Risk factor clustering in EHR data identifies primary care patients at increased risk for new diabetes, CHD and higher resource utilization.

  2. The atmospheric extinction of light

    CERN Document Server

    Hughes, Stephen W; Powell, Sean; Carroll, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a travelling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficients for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm^-1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm^-1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC.

  3. Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross D. E. MacPhee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters.

  4. Mass extinctions and supernova explosions

    CERN Document Server

    Korschinek, Gunther

    2016-01-01

    A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation, or the direct exposure of lethal x-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere which result in a drop in the Earth's temperature, causing major glaciations of the Earth. The discovery of highly intensive gamma ray bursts (GRBs), which could be connected to SNe, initiated further discussions on possible life-threatening events in Earth's history. The probability that GRBs hit the Earth is very low. Nevertheless, a past interaction of Earth with GRBs and/or SNe cannot be exclude...

  5. Extinction debt on oceanic islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, Kostas A.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Ladle, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    Habitat destruction is the leading cause of species extinctions. However, there is typically a time-lag between the reduction in habitat area and the eventual disappearance of the remnant populations. These "surviving but ultimately doomed" species represent an extinction debt. Calculating...... the magnitude of such future extinction events has been hampered by potentially inaccurate assumptions about the slope of species-area relationships, which are habitat- and taxon-specific. We overcome this challenge by applying a method that uses the historical sequence of deforestation in the Azorean Islands...... in the last 45 yr, despite the extensive sampling effort, offer support to the predictions made. We argue that immediate action to restore and expand native forest habitat is required to avert the loss of numerous endemic species in the near future...

  6. Habituation, latent inhibition, and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Wesley P; Todd, Travis P; Bucci, David J; Leaton, Robert N

    2015-06-01

    In two conditioned suppression experiments with a latent inhibition (LI) design, we measured the habituation of rats in preexposure, their LI during conditioning, and then extinction over days. In the first experiment, lick suppression, the preexposed group (PE) showed a significant initial unconditioned response (UR) to the target stimulus and significant long-term habituation (LTH) of that response over days. The significant difference between the PE and nonpreexposed (NPE) groups on the first conditioning trial was due solely to the difference in their URs to the conditioned stimulus (CS)-a habituated response (PE) and an unhabituated response (NPE). In the second experiment, bar-press suppression, little UR to the target stimulus was apparent during preexposure, and no detectable LTH. Thus, there was no difference between the PE and NPE groups on the first conditioning trial. Whether the UR to the CS confounds the interpretation of LI (Exp. 1) or not (Exp. 2) can only be known if the UR is measured. In both experiments, LI was observed in acquisition. Also in both experiments, rats that were preexposed and then conditioned to asymptote were significantly more resistant to extinction than were the rats not preexposed. This result contrasts with the consistently reported finding that preexposure either produces less resistance to extinction or has no effect on extinction. The effect of stimulus preexposure survived conditioning to asymptote and was reflected directly in extinction. These two experiments provide a cautionary procedural note for LI experiments and have shown an unexpected extinction effect that may provide new insights into the interpretation of LI.

  7. Infective endocarditis and risk of death after cardiac implantable electronic device implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özcan, Cengiz; Raunsø, Jakob; Lamberts, Morten;

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: To determine the incidence, risk factors, and mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) following implantation of a first-time, permanent, cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED). METHODS AND RESULTS: From Danish nationwide administrative registers (beginning in 1996), we identified all...... de-novo permanent pacemakers (PMs) and implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) together with the occurrence of post-implantation IE-events in the period from 2000-2012. Included were 43 048 first-time PM/ICD recipients. Total follow-up time was 168 343 person-years (PYs). The incidence rate...

  8. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  9. Interstellar Grains: Effect of Inclusions on Extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Katyal, Nisha; Vaidya, D B

    2011-01-01

    A composite dust grain model which simultaneously explains the observed interstellar extinction, polarization, IR emission and the abundance constraints, is required. We present a composite grain model, which is made up of a host silicate oblate spheroid and graphite inclusions. The interstellar extinction curve is evaluated in the spectral region 3.4-0.1$\\mu m$ using the extinction efficiencies of the composite spheroidal grains for three axial ratios. Extinction curves are computed using the discrete dipole approximation (DDA). The model curves are subsequently compared with the average observed interstellar extinction curve and with an extinction curve derived from the IUE catalogue data.

  10. Interstellar grains: Effect of inclusions on extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katyal, N.; Gupta, R.; Vaidya, D. B.

    2011-10-01

    A composite dust grain model which simultaneously explains the observed interstellar extinction, polarization, IR emission and the abundance constraints, is required. We present a composite grain model, which is made up of a host silicate oblate spheroid and graphite inclusions. The interstellar extinction curve is evaluated in the spectral region 3.4-0.1 μm using the extinction efficiencies of composite spheroidal grains for three axial ratios. Extinction curves are computed using the discrete dipole approximation (DDA). The model curves are subsequently compared with the average observed interstellar extinction curve and with an extinction curve derived from the IUE catalogue data.

  11. Estimating high-risk castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) using electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Rohini K; Cetin, Karynsa; Pirolli, Melissa; Quigley, Jane; Quach, David; Smith, Paul; Stryker, Scott; Liede, Alexander

    2015-08-01

    Canadian guidelines define castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) at high risk of developing metastases using PSA doubling time (PSADT) electronic health records (EHR), covering 129 urology and 64 oncology practices across the US. We estimated the proportion of prostate cancer patients with evidence of CRPC (consecutive rising PSAs) and subsets that may be at high risk (using several PSA and PSADT cut-points). Among 3121 M0 prostate cancer patients actively treated with ADT, 1188 (38%) had evidence of CRPC. Of these, 712 (60%) qualified as high risk in 2011 based on PSADT < 8 months (equivalent to = 8 months in these data). Men = 65 years were more likely to have evidence of CRPC than younger men, although younger men were more likely to have evidence of high-risk disease. CRPC was more common among men receiving ADT in the oncology setting than the urology setting (48% versus 37%). In this large EHR study with patient-level PSA data, 38% of men with M0 prostate cancer treated with ADT had CRPC. Approximately 60% of M0 CRPC patients may experience a PSADT of < 8 months. These findings require validation in a Canadian patient population.

  12. Research and Development for the Mu2e Extinction Monitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mott, Casey Benjamin [Northern Illinois U.

    2016-01-01

    Mu2e is a planned experiment to search for flavor-violating conversion from a muon to an electron. The experiment will use a pulsed 8 GeV proton beam to produce muons which will then stop in an aluminum target. Mu2e will search for the $\\mu^- + Al \\rightarrow e^- + Al$ process. For Mu2e, an extinction rate of 10$^{-10}$ is required to reduce the backgrounds to an acceptable level. Extinction is the ratio of the amount of protons striking the production target between beam pulses to the number striking it during the beam pulse. One of the backgrounds, off-target interactions, was simulated using G4beamline and Fermilab's Grid setup to confirm that an extinction rate of 10$^{-10}$ is possible. The extinction level will be measured by the extinction monitor which will include scintillation counters read out by photomultiplier tubes. In order to build a beam time profile, low fake responses (after pulses) are needed in the photomultiplier tubes. This thesis determines the best combination of resistors, voltage, and other components that provide the lowest after pulse rate.

  13. Research and development for the Mu2E extinction monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mott, Casey B.

    Mu2e is a planned experiment to search for flavor violating conversion from a muon to an electron. The experiment will use a pulsed 8 GeV proton beam to produce muons which will then stop in an aluminum target. Mu2e will search for the mu-- + Al → e-- + Al process. For Mu2e, an extinction rate of 10--10 is required to reduce the backgrounds to an acceptable level. Extinction is the ratio of the amount of protons striking the production target between beam pulses to the number striking it during the beam pulse. One of the backgrounds, off-target interactions, was simulated using G4beamline and Fermilab's Grid setup to confirm that an extinction rate of 10--10 is possible. The extinction level will be measured by the extinction monitor which will include scintillation counters read out by photomultiplier tubes. In order to build a beam time profile, low fake responses (after pulses) are needed in the photomultiplier tubes. This thesis determines the best combination of resistors, voltage, and other components that provide the lowest after pulse rate.

  14. Understanding modern extinctions in marine ecosystems: the role of palaeoecological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosnik, Matthew A; Kowalewski, Michał

    2016-04-01

    Because anthropogenic impacts on ecological systems pre-date the oldest scientific observations, historical documents and archaeological records, understanding modern extinctions requires additional data sources that extend further back in time. Palaeoecological records, which provide quantitative proxy records of ecosystems prior to human impact, are essential for understanding recent extinctions and future extinction risks. Here we critically review the value of the most recent fossil record in contributing to our understanding of modern extinctions and illustrate through case studies how naturally occurring death assemblages and Holocene sedimentary records provide context to the plight of marine ecosystems. While palaeoecological data are inherently restricted censuses of past communities (manipulative experiments are not possible), they yield quantitative records over temporal scales that are beyond the reach of ecology. Only by including palaeoecological data is it possible to fully assess the role of long-term anthropogenic processes in driving modern extinction risk. © 2016 The Author(s).

  15. Endangered and Extinct Radioactivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leising, M. D.

    1993-07-01

    Gamma ray spectroscopy holds great promise for probing nucleosynthesis in individual nucleosynthesis events, via observations of short-lived radioactivity, and for measuring global galactic nucleosynthesis today with detections of longer-lived radioactivity. Many of the astrophysical issues addressed by these observations are precisely those that must be understood in order to interpret observations of extinct radioactivity in meteorites. It was somewhat surprising that the former case was realized first for a Type II supernova, when both 56Co [1] and 57Co [2] were detected in SN 1987A. These provide unprecedented constraints on models of Type II explosions. Live 26Al in the galaxy might come from Type II supernovae and their progenitors, and if this is eventually shown to be the case, can constrain massive star evolution, supernova nucleosynthesis, the galactic Type II supernova rate, and even models of the chemical evolution of the galaxy [3]. Titanium-44 is produced primarily in the alpha-rich freezeout from nuclear statistical equilibrium, possibly in Type Ia [4] and almost certainly in Type II supernovae [5]. The galactic recurrence time of these events is comparable to the 44Ti lifetime, so we expect to be able to see at most a few otherwise unseen 44Ti remnants at any given time. No such remnants have been detected yet [6]. Very simple arguments lead to the expectation that about 4 x 10^-4 M(sub)solar mass of 44Ca are produced per century. The product of the supernova frequency times the 44Ti yield per event must equal this number. Even assuming that only the latest event would be seen, rates in excess of 2 century^-1 are ruled out at >=99% confidence by the gamma ray limits. Only rates less than 0.3 century^-1 are acceptable at >5% confidence, and this means that the yield per event must be >10^-3 M(sub)solar mass to produce the requisite 44Ca. Rates this low are incompatible with current estimates for Type II supernovae and yields this high are also very

  16. How humans drive speciation as well as extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, J W; Maron, M

    2016-06-29

    A central topic for conservation science is evaluating how human activities influence global species diversity. Humanity exacerbates extinction rates. But by what mechanisms does humanity drive the emergence of new species? We review human-mediated speciation, compare speciation and known extinctions, and discuss the challenges of using net species diversity as a conservation objective. Humans drive rapid evolution through relocation, domestication, hunting and novel ecosystem creation-and emerging technologies could eventually provide additional mechanisms. The number of species relocated, domesticated and hunted during the Holocene is of comparable magnitude to the number of observed extinctions. While instances of human-mediated speciation are known, the overall effect these mechanisms have upon speciation rates has not yet been quantified. We also explore the importance of anthropogenic influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon 'no net loss' conservation literature-considering phylogenetic diversity and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

  17. How humans drive speciation as well as extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maron, M.

    2016-01-01

    A central topic for conservation science is evaluating how human activities influence global species diversity. Humanity exacerbates extinction rates. But by what mechanisms does humanity drive the emergence of new species? We review human-mediated speciation, compare speciation and known extinctions, and discuss the challenges of using net species diversity as a conservation objective. Humans drive rapid evolution through relocation, domestication, hunting and novel ecosystem creation—and emerging technologies could eventually provide additional mechanisms. The number of species relocated, domesticated and hunted during the Holocene is of comparable magnitude to the number of observed extinctions. While instances of human-mediated speciation are known, the overall effect these mechanisms have upon speciation rates has not yet been quantified. We also explore the importance of anthropogenic influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon ‘no net loss’ conservation literature—considering phylogenetic diversity and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity. PMID:27358365

  18. A model of mass extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, M E J

    1997-01-01

    A number of authors have in recent years proposed that the processes of macroevolution may give rise to self-organized critical phenomena which could have a significant effect on the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular it has been suggested that mass extinction may arise through a purely biotic mechanism as the result of so-called coevolutionary avalanches. In this paper we first explore the empirical evidence which has been put forward in favor of this conclusion. The data center principally around the existence of power-law functional forms in the distribution of the sizes of extinction events and other quantities. We then propose a new mathematical model of mass extinction which does not rely on coevolutionary effects and in which extinction is caused entirely by the action of environmental stresses on species. In combination with a simple model of species adaptation we show that this process can account for all the observed data without the need to invoke coevolution and critical processes. The model al...

  19. Extinction debt on oceanic islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, K.A.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Ladle, R.J.;

    2010-01-01

    the magnitude of such future extinction events has been hampered by potentially inaccurate assumptions about the slope of species-area relationships, which are habitat- and taxon-specific. We overcome this challenge by applying a method that uses the historical sequence of deforestation in the Azorean Islands...

  20. Interstellar Extinction by Spheroidal Dust Grains

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Ranjan; Mukai, Tadashi; Vaidya, D. B.; Sen, Asoke K.; Okada, Yasuhiko

    2005-01-01

    Observations of interstellar extinction and polarization indicate that the interstellar medium consists of aligned non-spherical dust grains which show variation in the interstellar extinction curve for wavelengths ranging from NIR to UV. To model the extinction and polarization, one cannot use the Mie theory which assumes the grains as solid spheres. We have used a T-matrix based method for computing the extinction efficiencies of spheroidal silicate and graphite grains of different shapes (...

  1. Tempo in electronic gaming machines affects behavior among at-risk gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzoni, Rune A; Laberg, Jon Christian; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Pallesen, Ståle

    2012-09-01

    Background and aims Electronic gaming machines (EGM) may be a particularly addictive form of gambling, and gambling speed is believed to contribute to the addictive potential of such machines. The aim of the current study was to generate more knowledge concerning speed as a structural characteristic in gambling, by comparing the effects of three different bet-to-outcome intervals (BOI) on gamblers bet-sizes, game evaluations and illusion of control during gambling on a computer simulated slot machine. Furthermore, we investigated whether problem gambling moderates effects of BOI on gambling behavior and cognitions. Methods 62 participants played a computerized slot machine with either fast (400 ms), medium (1700 ms) or slow (3000 ms) BOI. SOGS-R was used to measure pre-existing gambling problems. Mean bet size, game evaluations and illusion of control comprised the dependent variables. Results Gambling speed had no overall effect on either mean bet size, game evaluations or illusion of control, but in the 400 ms condition, at-risk gamblers (SOGS-R score > 0) employed higher bet sizes compared to no-risk (SOGS-R score = 0) gamblers. Conclusions The findings corroborate and elaborate on previous studies and indicate that restrictions on gambling speed may serve as a harm reducing effort for at-risk gamblers.

  2. Further Evidence of Auditory Extinction in Aphasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Rebecca Shisler; Basilakos, Alexandra; Love-Myers, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Preliminary research ( Shisler, 2005) suggests that auditory extinction in individuals with aphasia (IWA) may be connected to binding and attention. In this study, the authors expanded on previous findings on auditory extinction to determine the source of extinction deficits in IWA. Method: Seventeen IWA (M[subscript age] = 53.19 years)…

  3. Determining Extinction Ratio Of A Laser Diode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Glenn L.

    1992-01-01

    Improved technique to determine extinction ratio of pulsed laser diode based partly on definition of extinction ratio applicable to nonideal laser pulses. Heretofore, determinations involved assumption of ideal laser pulses, and neglected optical power from background light. Because power fluctuates during real pulse, more realistic to define extinction ratio in terms of energy obtained.

  4. Molar extinction coefficients of some fatty acids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandhu, G. K.; Singh, Kulwant; Lark, B. S.; Gerward, L.

    2002-10-01

    The attenuation of gamma rays in some fatty acids, viz. formic acid (CH 2O 2), acetic acid (C 2H 4O 2), propionic acid (C 3H 6O 2), butyric acid (C 4H 8O 2), n-hexanoic acid (C 6H 12O 2), n-caprylic acid (C 8H 16O 2), lauric acid (C 12H 24O 2), myristic acid (C 14H 28O 2), palmitic acid (C 16H 32O 2), oleic acid (C 18H 34O 2) and stearic acid (C 18H 36O 2), has been measured at the photon energies 81, 356, 511, 662, 1173 and 1332 keV. Experimental values for the molar extinction coefficient, the effective atomic number and the electron density have been derived and compared with theoretical calculations. There is good agreement between experiment and theory.

  5. Development of Extinction Imagers for the Determination of Atmospheric Optical Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    extinction coefficient > 0.4 km" ), the transmissometer tends to report higher values than the MSI. There are two possible reasons for this behavior ...REPORT TYPE Final Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Development of Extinction Imagers for the Determination of Atmospheric Optical Extinction 6. AUTHOR...further develop Extinction Imagers for use in the ocean environment, and to extend the capabilities into the Short Wave IR (SWIR). Extinction Imaging

  6. [Electronic cigarettes: use, health risks, and effectiveness as a cessation method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemsen, Marc C; Croes, Esther A; Kotz, Daniel; van Schayck, Onno C P

    2015-01-01

    The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among adults in the Netherlands is increasing but is still relatively low. Increasing numbers of young people abroad are experimenting with e-cigarettes but no trend data for the Netherlands are available to date. Young people who experiment with e-cigarettes are principally those young people who already smoke conventional cigarettes or have done so in the past; the same applies to adults. There are no indications that experimenting with e-cigarettes can lead to tobacco addiction. Although the vapour from e-cigarettes contains substances that are harmful to health, the health risks from the use of e-cigarettes are far smaller than those from smoking conventional cigarettes. Too few research data are available to be able to conclude that e-cigarettes are an effective aid to smoking cessation.

  7. Transient ischaemic attack and stroke risk: pilot of a primary care electronic decision support tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranta A

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs indicate high risk for stroke and rapid management reduces stroke burden. Rapid specialist access to initiate timely management is often challenging to achieve. AIM: To assess the feasibility of implementing a TIA/Stroke electronic decision support (EDS tool intended to aid general practitioners (GPs in the timely management of TIAs. METHODS: An eight-week pilot provided access to the TIA/Stroke EDS to selected GPs in the MidCentral district, with subsequent patient record review and a post-pilot user satisfaction survey. RESULTS: Eleven patients from eight practices were entered into the tool and when EDS-rendered advice was followed, diagnosis was accurate and management was in accordance with New Zealand TIA guidelines. No adverse outcomes resulted and user feedback was positive. DISCUSSION: Results indicate that wider implementation of the TIA/Stroke EDS tool is feasible.

  8. Neanderthal extinction by competitive exclusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William E Banks

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite a long history of investigation, considerable debate revolves around whether Neanderthals became extinct because of climate change or competition with anatomically modern humans (AMH. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We apply a new methodology integrating archaeological and chronological data with high-resolution paleoclimatic simulations to define eco-cultural niches associated with Neanderthal and AMH adaptive systems during alternating cold and mild phases of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Our results indicate that Neanderthals and AMH exploited similar niches, and may have continued to do so in the absence of contact. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The southerly contraction of Neanderthal range in southwestern Europe during Greenland Interstadial 8 was not due to climate change or a change in adaptation, but rather concurrent AMH geographic expansion appears to have produced competition that led to Neanderthal extinction.

  9. Exploring co-extinction correlates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carpaneto, Giuseppe Maria; Mazziotta, Adriano; Pittino, Riccardo

    2011-01-01

    Co-extinction is a recurring topic in conservation biology. Quantification of co-extinction has been generally restricted to parasite-host, predator-prey and herbivore-host plant interactions. The loss of detritivorous insects upon the depletion of herbivore mammals has been poorly explored. Here...... of scarab beetle communities. Rarefaction curves estimated that a 50% reduction in the number of sample units where squirrel faecal pellets are the only available food resource accounts for a reduction of 28% of all the scarab species, and of 24% of the squirrel-linked species. The current decline of ground...... that the conservation of ground squirrels and their affiliate scarab species may be ensured by a moderate livestock grazing, owing to the higher ecological success of these rodents in the presence of large herbivores keeping low the grass cover. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V....

  10. Species extinction thresholds in the face of spatially correlated periodic disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Jinbao; Ying, Zhixia; Hiebeler, David E; Wang, Yeqiao; Takada, Takenori; Nijs, Ivan

    2015-10-20

    The spatial correlation of disturbance is gaining attention in landscape ecology, but knowledge is still lacking on how species traits determine extinction thresholds under spatially correlated disturbance regimes. Here we develop a pair approximation model to explore species extinction risk in a lattice-structured landscape subject to aggregated periodic disturbance. Increasing disturbance extent and frequency accelerated population extinction irrespective of whether dispersal was local or global. Spatial correlation of disturbance likewise increased species extinction risk, but only for local dispersers. This indicates that models based on randomly simulated disturbances (e.g., mean-field or non-spatial models) may underestimate real extinction rates. Compared to local dispersal, species with global dispersal tolerated more severe disturbance, suggesting that the spatial correlation of disturbance favors long-range dispersal from an evolutionary perspective. Following disturbance, intraspecific competition greatly enhanced the extinction risk of distance-limited dispersers, while it surprisingly did not influence the extinction thresholds of global dispersers, apart from decreasing population density to some degree. As species respond differently to disturbance regimes with different spatiotemporal properties, different regimes may accommodate different species.

  11. The ethics of reviving long extinct species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandler, Ronald

    2014-04-01

    There now appears to be a plausible pathway for reviving species that have been extinct for several decades, centuries, or even millennia. I conducted an ethical analysis of de-extinction of long extinct species. I assessed several possible ethical considerations in favor of pursuing de-extinction: that it is a matter of justice; that it would reestablish lost value; that it would create new value; and that society needs it as a conservation last resort. I also assessed several possible ethical arguments against pursuing de-extinction: that it is unnatural; that it could cause animal suffering; that it could be ecologically problematic or detrimental to human health; and that it is hubristic. There are reasons in favor of reviving long extinct species, and it can be ethically acceptable to do so. However, the reasons in favor of pursuing de-extinction do not have to do with its usefulness in species conservation; rather, they concern the status of revived species as scientific and technological achievements, and it would be ethically problematic to promote de-extinction as a significant conservation strategy, because it does not prevent species extinctions, does not address the causes of extinction, and could be detrimental to some species conservation efforts. Moreover, humanity does not have a responsibility or obligation to pursue de-extinction of long extinct species, and reviving them does not address any urgent problem. Therefore, legitimate ecological, political, animal welfare, legal, or human health concerns associated with a de-extinction (and reintroduction) must be thoroughly addressed for it to be ethically acceptable. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Risk prediction for chronic kidney disease progression using heterogeneous electronic health record data and time series analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Perotte, Adler; Ranganath, Rajesh; Hirsch, Jamie S; Blei, David; Elhadad, Noémie

    2015-01-01

    Background As adoption of electronic health records continues to increase, there is an opportunity to incorporate clinical documentation as well as laboratory values and demographics into risk prediction modeling. Objective The authors develop a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression from stage III to stage IV that includes longitudinal data and features drawn from clinical documentation. Methods The study cohort consisted of 2908 primary-care clinic patients who h...

  13. Evaluación del riesgo de extinción de Mammillaria pectinifera, cactácea endémica de la región de Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Assessment of extinction risk of Mammillaria pectinifera, an endemic cactus of the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Luis Valverde

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Mammillaria pectinifera (Cactaceae es una especie endémica de la Región de Tehuacán-Cuicatlán en los estados de Puebla y Oaxaca. Aunque en la Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-059-ECOL-2001 está considerada como amenazada y está incluida en el Apéndice I de la CITES, la información derivada de los escasos estudios ecológicos sobre esta especie revela serios riesgos de extinción de sus poblaciones. En el presente estudio se registra una evaluación del riesgo de extinción de M. pectinifera, para la que se empleó el protocolo del Método de Evaluación del Riesgo de Extinción de las Especies Silvestres en México (MER del Anexo I de la NOM-059-ECOL-2001, el cual se basa en 4 criterios para evaluar cualitativamente el riesgo de extinción de cualquier especie silvestre en el territorio nacional. Dicha evaluación se apoya en datos de campo de 7 poblaciones e información procedente de diversas fuentes. De acuerdo con los 12 puntos obtenidos del MER, se propone que M. pectinifera se considere en la categoría de especie en peligro de extinción (P en la NOM-059-ECOL-2001 y sea incluida de nuevo en la Lista Roja de la UICN. Finalmente se plantea una propuesta para mejorar la valoración del Criterio D del MER.Mammillaria pectinifera (Cactaceae is an endemic species from the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán region at the Mexican States of Puebla and Oaxaca. Although it is considered as a threatened species under Mexican law NOM-059-ECOL-2001, and it is already included in the CITES Appendix I, ecological studies reveal serious vulnerability to extinction of its populations. In this study, we conducted an extinction risk assessment for M. pectinifera based on the protocol of the Method for Evaluation of Risk of Extinction for Mexican Wild Species (MER from Appendix I of NOM-059-ECOL-2001, which is based on a qualitative assessment of 4 criteria for evaluating extinction risk of any wild species in the Mexican territory. The present assessment relies on data

  14. Mass-gathering Medicine: Risks and Patient Presentations at a 2-Day Electronic Dance Music Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Adam; Turris, Sheila A

    2015-06-01

    Music festivals, including electronic dance music events (EDMEs), increasingly are common in Canada and internationally. Part of a US $4.5 billion industry annually, the target audience is youth and young adults aged 15-25 years. Little is known about the impact of these events on local emergency departments (EDs). Drawing on prospective data over a 2-day EDME, the authors of this study employed mixed methods to describe the case mix and prospectively compared patient presentation rate (PPR) and ambulance transfer rate (ATR) between a first aid (FA) only and a higher level of care (HLC) model. There were 20,301 ticketed attendees. Seventy patient encounters were recorded over two days. The average age was 19.1 years. Roughly 69% were female (n=48/70). Forty-six percent of those seen in the main medical area were under the age of 19 years (n=32/70). The average length of stay in the main medical area was 70.8 minutes. The overall PPR was 4.09 per 1,000 attendees. The ATR with FA only would have been 1.98; ATR with HLC model was 0.52. The presence of an on-site HLC team had a significant positive effect on avoiding ambulance transfers. Twenty-nine ambulance transfers and ED visits were avoided by the presence of an on-site HLC medical team. Reduction of impact to the public health care system was substantial. Electronic dance music events have predictable risks and patient presentations, and appropriate on-site health care resources may reduce significantly the impact on the prehospital and emergency health resources in the host community.

  15. Use of an electronic administrative database to identify older community dwelling adults at high-risk for hospitalization or emergency department visits: The elders risk assessment index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaudhry Rajeev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevention of recurrent hospitalizations in the frail elderly requires the implementation of high-intensity interventions such as case management. In order to be practically and financially sustainable, these programs require a method of identifying those patients most at risk for hospitalization, and therefore most likely to benefit from an intervention. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the use of an electronic medical record to create an administrative index which is able to risk-stratify this heterogeneous population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a single tertiary care facility in Rochester, Minnesota. Patients included all 12,650 community-dwelling adults age 60 and older assigned to a primary care internal medicine provider on January 1, 2005. Patient risk factors over the previous two years, including demographic characteristics, comorbid diseases, and hospitalizations, were evaluated for significance in a logistic regression model. The primary outcome was the total number of emergency room visits and hospitalizations in the subsequent two years. Risk factors were assigned a score based on their regression coefficient estimate and a total risk score created. This score was evaluated for sensitivity and specificity. Results The final model had an AUC of 0.678 for the primary outcome. Patients in the highest 10% of the risk group had a relative risk of 9.5 for either hospitalization or emergency room visits, and a relative risk of 13.3 for hospitalization in the subsequent two year period. Conclusions It is possible to create a screening tool which identifies an elderly population at high risk for hospital and emergency room admission using clinical and administrative data readily available within an electronic medical record.

  16. An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

    2016-03-01

    Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species

  17. A lesson in defining "extinct"

    OpenAIRE

    Asimow, Paul D.

    2014-01-01

    Toni Feder’s Issues and Events news item about the High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory under construction in Mexico ( Physics Today, October 2013, page 22) begins by describing the site as “nestled at 4100 m on the slopes of Sierra Negra, an extinct volcano.” However, as the picture accompanying her piece or a cursory examination in Google Earth makes clear, the site is not on the slopes of Sierra Negra. It sits in the saddle between Sierra Negra and its much larger companion ...

  18. Electronic Health Record Tools to Care for At-Risk Older Drivers: A Quality Improvement Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Colleen M; Salinas, Katherine; Eckstrom, Elizabeth

    2015-06-01

    Evaluating driving safety of older adults is an important health topic, but primary care providers (PCP) face multiple barriers in addressing this issue. The study's objectives were to develop an electronic health record (EHR)-based Driving Clinical Support Tool, train PCPs to perform driving assessments utilizing the tool, and systematize documentation of assessment and management of driving safety issues via the tool. The intervention included development of an evidence-based Driving Clinical Support Tool within the EHR, followed by training of internal medicine providers in the tool's content and use. Pre- and postintervention provider surveys and chart review of driving-related patient visits were conducted. Surveys included self-report of preparedness and knowledge to evaluate at-risk older drivers and were analyzed using paired t-test. A chart review of driving-related office visits compared documentation pre- and postintervention including: completeness of appropriate focused history and exam, identification of deficits, patient education, and reporting to appropriate authorities when indicated. Data from 86 providers were analyzed. Pre- and postintervention surveys showed significantly increased self-assessed preparedness (p < .001) and increased driving-related knowledge (p < .001). Postintervention charts showed improved documentation of correct cognitive testing, more referrals/consults, increased patient education about community resources, and appropriate regulatory reporting when deficits were identified. Focused training and an EHR-based clinical support tool improved provider self-reported preparedness and knowledge of how to evaluate at-risk older drivers. The tool improved documentation of driving-related issues and led to improved access to interdisciplinary care coordination. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2015.

  19. Population prevalence and control of cardiovascular risk factors: what electronic medical records tell us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán-Ramos, Arantxa; Verdú, Jose M; Grau, María; Iglesias-Rodal, Manuel; del Val García, José L; Consola, Alicia; Comin, Eva

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the prevalence, control, and management of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Cross-sectional analysis of all individuals attended in the Catalan primary care centers between 2006 and 2009. History of cardiovascular diseases, diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, DM2, lipid profile, glycemia and blood pressure data were extracted from electronic medical records. Age-standardized prevalence and levels of management and control were estimated. Individuals aged 35-74 years using primary care databases. A total of 2,174,515 individuals were included (mean age 52 years [SD 11], 47% men). Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor (39% in women, 41% in men) followed by hypercholesterolemia (38% and 40%) and DM2 (12% and 16%), respectively. Diuretics and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were most often prescribed for hypertension control (<140/90mmHg, achieved in 68% of men and 60% of women treated). Hypercholesterolemia was controlled (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <130mg/dl) in just 31% of men and 26% of women with no history of cardiovascular disease, despite lipid-lowering treatment, primarily (90%) with statins. The percentage of women and men with DM2 and with glycated hemoglobin <7% was 64.7% and 59.2%, respectively; treatment was predominantly with oral hypoglycemic agents alone (70%), or combined with insulin (15%). Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor in the Catalan population attended at primary care centers. About two thirds of individuals with hypertension or DM2 were adequately controlled; hypercholesterolemia control was particularly low. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  20. Extinction by the long dielectric needles

    CERN Document Server

    Cherkas, Nadejda L

    2016-01-01

    Electromagnetic wave extinction by the very long but finite dielectric needle is compared with that by the infinite dielectric cylinder for an oblique incidence of the electromagnetic wave. It is shown that the renormalized Hankel functions without the logarithmic terms should be used for the calculation of the extinction per unit length of the infinite dielectric cylinder to apply it for extinction calculations by the finite dielectric cylinder.

  1. Resistance to extinction and behavioral momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Nevin, John A.

    2012-01-01

    In the metaphor of behavioral momentum, reinforcement is assumed to strengthen discriminated operant behavior in the sense of increasing its resistance to disruption, and extinction is viewed as disruption by contingency termination and reinforcer omission. In multiple schedules of intermittent reinforcement, resistance to extinction is an increasing function of reinforcer rate, consistent with a model based on the momentum metaphor. The partial-reinforcement extinction effect, which opposes ...

  2. Mass Extinctions vs. Uniformitarianism in Biological Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Bak, Per; Paczuski, Maya

    1996-01-01

    It is usually believed that Darwin's theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of coevolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criti...

  3. Extinction Maps in the WFAU Archives

    CERN Document Server

    Cross, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    A brief set of notes about the database design for 3D maps of dust extinction in the WFAU Archives, which support data from UKIRT-WFCAM, VISTA and VST. The notes also detail typical use cases, such as getting colour-excesses, extinction-corrections, spectral energy distributions and colour-magnitude diagrams and demonstrate the SQL queries to return data, along with examples from VVV DR2 with bulge extinction maps from Chen et al. (2013).

  4. The Astronomical Pulse of Global Extinction Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F.V. Lewis

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The linkage between astronomical cycles and the periodicity of mass extinctions is reviewed and discussed. In particular, the apparent 26 million year cycle of global extinctions may be related to the motion of the solar system around the galaxy, especially perpendicular to the galactic plane. The potential relevance of Milankovitch cycles is also explored in the light of current evidence for the possible causes of extinction events over a geological timescale.

  5. The astronomical pulse of global extinction events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, David F V; Dorne, Jean-Lou C M

    2006-06-23

    The linkage between astronomical cycles and the periodicity of mass extinctions is reviewed and discussed. In particular, the apparent 26 million year cycle of global extinctions may be related to the motion of the solar system around the galaxy, especially perpendicular to the galactic plane. The potential relevance of Milankovitch cycles is also explored in the light of current evidence for the possible causes of extinction events over a geological timescale.

  6. Identification of high-risk areas for harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena bycatch using remote electronic monitoring and satellite telemetry data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Berg, Casper Willestofte; Tougaard, J.

    2016-01-01

    and lower risk of porpoise bycatch. From May 2010 to April 2011, 4 commercial gillnet vessels were equipped with remote electronic monitoring (REM) systems. The REM system recorded time, GPS position and closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage of all gillnet hauls. REM data were used to identify fishing...

  7. Mass extinctions vs. uniformitarianism in biological evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bak, P.; Paczuski, M.

    1995-12-31

    It is usually believed that Darwin`s theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of co-evolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criticality and describe some general features of the extinction pattern in the fossil record.

  8. Enhancing Divergent Search through Extinction Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    A challenge in evolutionary computation is to create representations as evolvable as those in natural evolution. This paper hypothesizes that extinction events, i.e. mass extinctions, can significantly increase evolvability, but only when combined with a divergent search algorithm, i.e. a search...... for the capacity to evolve. This hypothesis is tested through experiments in two evolutionary robotics domains. The results show that combining extinction events with divergent search increases evolvability, while combining them with convergent search offers no similar benefit. The conclusion is that extinction...

  9. Secondary extinction in Pavlovian fear conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vurbic, Drina; Bouton, Mark E

    2011-09-01

    Pavlov (1927/1960) reported that following the conditioning of several stimuli, extinction of one conditioned stimulus (CS) attenuated responding to others that had not undergone direct extinction. However, this secondary extinction effect has not been widely replicated in the contemporary literature. In three conditioned suppression experiments with rats, we further explored the phenomenon. In Experiment 1, we asked whether secondary extinction is more likely to occur with target CSs that have themselves undergone some prior extinction. A robust secondary extinction effect was obtained with a nonextinguished target CS. Experiment 2 showed that extinction of one CS was sufficient to reduce renewal of a second CS when it was tested in a neutral (nonextinction) context. In Experiment 3, secondary extinction was observed in groups that initially received intermixed conditioning trials with the target and nontarget CSs, but not in groups that received conditioning of the two CSs in separate sessions. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that CSs must be associated with a common temporal context during conditioning for secondary extinction to occur.

  10. Dust Extinction in Compact Planetary Nebulae

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, TH; Kwok, S.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of dust extinction on the departure from axisymmetry in the morphology of planetary nebulae (PNs) are investigated through a comparison of the radio free-free emission and hydrogen recombination line images. The dust extinction maps from five compact PNs are derived using high-resolution (̃0"1) Hα and radio maps of the HST and VLA. These extinction maps are then analyzed by an ellipsoidal shell ionization model including the effects of dust extinction to infer the nebulae's intrin...

  11. Climate predictors of late quaternary extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogués-Bravo, David; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Batra, Persaram

    2010-01-01

    Between 50,000 and 3,000 years before present (BP) 65% of mammal genera weighing over 44 kg went extinct, together with a lower proportion of small mammals. Why species went extinct in such large numbers is hotly debated. One of the arguments proposes that climate changes underlie Late Quaternary...... extinctions, but global quantitative evidence for this hypothesis is still lacking. We test the potential role of global climate change on the extinction of mammals during the Late Quaternary. Our results suggest that continents with the highest climate footprint values, in other words, with climate changes...

  12. Long-term maintenance of immediate or delayed extinction is determined by the extinction-test interval

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

    2010-01-01

    Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively long extinction-test interval was used; a relatively short extinction-test interval yielded the opposite result (Experiment 2). Previous data appear co...

  13. β-Adrenoceptor Blockade in the Basolateral Amygdala, But Not the Medial Prefrontal Cortex, Rescues the Immediate Extinction Deficit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giustino, Thomas F; Seemann, Jocelyn R; Acca, Gillian M; Goode, Travis D; Fitzgerald, Paul J; Maren, Stephen

    2017-05-02

    Early psychological interventions, such as exposure therapy, rely on extinction learning to reduce the development of stress- and trauma-related disorders. However, recent research suggests that extinction often fails to reduce fear when administered soon after trauma. This immediate extinction deficit (IED) may be due to stress-induced dysregulation of neural circuits involved in extinction learning. We have shown that systemic β-adrenoceptor blockade with propranolol rescues the IED, but impairs delayed extinction. Here we sought to determine the neural locus of these effects. Rats underwent auditory fear conditioning and then received either immediate (30 min) or delayed (24 h) extinction training. We used bilateral intracranial infusions of propranolol into either the infralimbic division of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) or the basolateral amygdala (BLA) to examine the effects of β-adrenoceptor blockade on immediate and delayed extinction learning. Interestingly, intra-BLA, but not intra-mPFC, propranolol rescued the IED; animals receiving intra-BLA propranolol prior to immediate extinction showed less spontaneous recovery of fear during extinction retrieval. Importantly, this was not due to impaired consolidation of the conditioning memory. In contrast, neither intra-BLA nor intra-mPFC propranolol affected delayed extinction learning. Overall, these data contribute to a growing literature suggesting dissociable roles for key nodes in the fear extinction circuit depending on the timing of extinction relative to conditioning. These data also suggest that heightened noradrenergic activity in the BLA underlies stress-induced extinction deficits. Propranolol may be a useful adjunct to behavioral therapeutic interventions in recently traumatized individuals who are at risk for developing trauma-related disorders.Neuropsychopharmacology advance online publication, 31 May 2017; doi:10.1038/npp.2017.89.

  14. Extinction-Optimized Volume Illumination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ament, Marco; Zirr, Tobias; Dachsbacher, Carsten

    2016-05-16

    We present a novel method to optimize the attenuation of light for the single scattering model in direct volume rendering. A common problem of single scattering is the high dynamic range between lit and shadowed regions due to the exponential attenuation of light along a ray. Moreover, light is often attenuated too strong between a sample point and the camera, hampering the visibility of important features. Our algorithm employs an importance function to selectively illuminate important structures and make them visible from the camera. With the importance function, more light can be transmitted to the features of interest, while contextual structures cast shadows which provide visual cues for perception of depth. At the same time, more scattered light is transmitted from the sample point to the camera to improve the primary visibility of important features. We formulate a minimization problem that automatically determines the extinction along a view or shadow ray to obtain a good balance between sufficient transmittance and attenuation. In contrast to previous approaches, we do not require a computationally expensive solution of a global optimization, but instead provide a closed-form solution for each sampled extinction value along a view or shadow ray and thus achieve interactive performance.

  15. Phylogenetic Clustering of Origination and Extinction across the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Z Krug

    Full Text Available Mass extinctions can have dramatic effects on the trajectory of life, but in some cases the effects can be relatively small even when extinction rates are high. For example, the Late Ordovician mass extinction is the second most severe in terms of the proportion of genera eliminated, yet is noted for the lack of ecological consequences and shifts in clade dominance. By comparison, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was less severe but eliminated several major clades while some rare surviving clades diversified in the Paleogene. This disconnect may be better understood by incorporating the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa into studies of mass extinctions, as the factors driving extinction and recovery are thought to be phylogenetically conserved and should therefore promote both origination and extinction of closely related taxa. Here, we test whether there was phylogenetic selectivity in extinction and origination using brachiopod genera from the Middle Ordovician through the Devonian. Using an index of taxonomic clustering (RCL as a proxy for phylogenetic clustering, we find that A both extinctions and originations shift from taxonomically random or weakly clustered within families in the Ordovician to strongly clustered in the Silurian and Devonian, beginning with the recovery following the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and B the Late Ordovician mass extinction was itself only weakly clustered. Both results stand in stark contrast to Cretaceous-Cenozoic bivalves, which showed significant levels of taxonomic clustering of extinctions in the Cretaceous, including strong clustering in the mass extinction, but taxonomically random extinctions in the Cenozoic. The contrasting patterns between the Late Ordovician and end-Cretaceous events suggest a complex relationship between the phylogenetic selectivity of mass extinctions and the long-term phylogenetic signal in origination and extinction patterns.

  16. Selectivity of terrestrial gastropod extinctions on an oceanic archipelago and insights into the anthropogenic extinction process

    OpenAIRE

    Chiba, Satoshi; Roy, Kaustuv

    2011-01-01

    Anthropogenic impacts have led to widespread extinctions of species on oceanic islands but the nature of many of these extinctions remains poorly known. Here we investigate extinction selectivities of terrestrial gastropods from the Ogasawara archipelago in the northwest Pacific, where anthropogenic threats have changed over time, shifting primarily from the effects of habitat loss to predation by a variety of different predators. Across all of the islands, extinct species had significantly s...

  17. Timing of extinction relative to acquisition: A parametric analysis of fear extinction in humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norrholm, S.D.; Vervliet, B.; Jovanovic, T.; Boshoven, W.; Myers, K.M.; Davis, M.; Rothbaum, B.O.; Duncan, E.J.

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a reduction in conditioned fear following repeated exposure to the feared cue in the absence of any aversive event. Extinguished fear often reappears after extinction through spontaneous recovery. Animal studies suggest that spontaneous recovery can be abolished if extinction occu

  18. Constraints on Enhanced Extinction Resulting from Extinction Treatment in the Presence of an Added Excitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urcelay, Gonzalo P.; Lipatova, Olga; Miller, Ralph R.

    2009-01-01

    Three Pavlovian fear conditioning experiments with rats as subjects explored the effect of extinction in the presence of a concurrent excitor. Our aim was to explore this particular treatment, documented in previous studies to deepen extinction, with novel control groups to shed light on the processes involved in extinction. Relative to subjects…

  19. Risk Management of Microelectronics: The NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaBel, Kenneth A.; Sampson, Michael J.

    2005-01-01

    This viewgraph information provides information on how the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program evaluates the reliability of technologies for Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) parts, and their suitability for spacecraft applications.

  20. Rarity, species richness, and the threat of extinction--are plants the same as animals?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Knapp

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of conservation status is done both for areas or habitats and for species (or taxa. IUCN Red List categories have been the principal method of categorising species in terms of extinction risk, and have been shown to be robust and helpful in the groups for which they have been developed. A recent study highlights properties associated with extinction risk in flowering plants, focusing on the species-rich hot spot of the Cape region of South Africa, and concludes that merely following methods derived from studies of vertebrates may not provide the best estimates of extinction risk for plants. Biology, geography, and history all are important factors in risk, and the study poses many questions about how we categorise and assess species for conservation priorities.

  1. Estimation of Secondary Skin Cancer Risk Due To Electron Contamination in 18-MV LINAC-Based Prostate Radiotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mostafa Ghavami

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Accurate estimation of the skin-absorbed dose in external radiation therapy is essential to estimating the probability of secondary carcinogenesis induction Materials and Methods Electron contamination in prostate radiotherapy was investigated using the Monte Carlo (MC code calculation. In addition, field size dependence of the skin dose was assessed. Excess cancer risk induced by electron contamination was determined for the skin, surface dose, and prostate dose-volume histogram (DVH using MC calculation and analytical methods. Results MC calculations indicated that up to 80% of total electron contamination fluence was produced in the linear accelerator. At 5 mm below the skin surface, surface dose was estimated at 6%, 13%, 27%, and 38% for 5×5 cm2, 10×10 cm2, 20×20 cm2, and 40×40 cm2 field sizes, respectively. Relative dose at Dmax was calculated at 0.92% and 5.42% of the maximum dose for 5×5 cm2 and 40×40 cm2 field sizes, respectively. Excess absolute skin cancer risk was obtained at 2.96×10-4 (PY -1 for total 72 Gy. Differences in prostate and skin DVHs were 1.01% and 1.38%, respectively. Conclusion According to the results of this study, non-negligible doses are absorbed from contaminant electrons by the skin, which is associated with an excess risk of cancer induction.

  2. Nothing is safe: Intolerance of uncertainty is associated with compromised fear extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morriss, Jayne; Christakou, Anastasia; van Reekum, Carien M

    2016-12-01

    Extinction-resistant fear is considered to be a central feature of pathological anxiety. Here we sought to determine if individual differences in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underlies compromised fear extinction. We tested this hypothesis by recording electrodermal activity in 38 healthy participants during fear acquisition and extinction. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction, by examining early and late extinction learning. During early extinction, low IU was associated with larger skin conductance responses to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU was associated with skin conductance responding to both threat and safety cues, but no cue discrimination. During late extinction, low IU showed no difference in skin conductance between learned threat and safety cues, whilst high IU predicted continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance to threat vs. safety cues. These findings suggest a critical role of uncertainty-based mechanisms in the maintenance of learned fear. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheets, H David; Mitchell, Charles E; Melchin, Michael J; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L; Hawkins, Andrew D

    2016-07-26

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  4. From lab to clinic: Extinction of cued cravings to reduce overeating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Anita; Schyns, Ghislaine; Bongers, Peggy; van den Akker, Karolien

    2016-08-01

    Food cue reactivity is a strong motivation to eat, even in the absence of hunger. Therefore, food cue reactivity might sabotage healthy eating, induce weight gain and impede weight loss or weight maintenance. Food cue reactivity can be learned via Pavlovian appetitive conditioning: It is easily acquired but the extinction of appetitive responding seems to be more challenging. Several properties of extinction make it fragile: extinction does not erase the original learning and extinction is context-dependent. These properties threaten full extinction and increase the risk of full relapse. Extinction procedures are discussed to reduce or prevent the occurrence of rapid reacquisition, spontaneous recovery, renewal and reinstatement after extinction. A translation to food cue exposure treatment is made and suggestions are provided, such as conducting the exposure in relevant contexts, using occasional reinforcement and targeting expectancy violation instead of habituation. A new hypothesis proposed here is that the adding of inhibition training to strengthen inhibition skills that reduce instrumental responding, might be beneficial to improve food cue exposure effects.

  5. Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon A Black

    Full Text Available Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

  6. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

    2016-07-01

    Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

  7. Long-Term Maintenance of Immediate or Delayed Extinction Is Determined by the Extinction-Test Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

    2010-01-01

    Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively…

  8. Extinction-Induced Variability in Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinloch, Jennifer M.; Foster, T. Mary; McEwan, James S. A.

    2009-01-01

    Participants earned points by pressing a computer space bar (Experiment 1) or forming rectangles on the screen with the mouse (Experiment 2) under differential-reinforcement-of-low-rate schedules, followed by extinction. Variability in interresponse time (the contingent dimension) increased during extinction, as for Morgan and Lee (1996);…

  9. Periodicity of extinction: A 1988 update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepkowski, J. John, Jr.

    1988-01-01

    The hypothesis that events of mass extinction recur periodically at approximately 26 my intervals is an empirical claim based on analysis of data from the fossil record. The hypothesis has become closely linked with catastrophism because several events in the periodic series are associated with evidence of extraterrestrial impacts, and terrestrial forcing mechanisms with long, periodic recurrences are not easily conceived. Astronomical mechanisms that have been hypothesized include undetected solar companions and solar oscillation about the galactic plane, which induce comet showers and result in impacts on Earth at regular intervals. Because these mechanisms are speculative, they have been the subject of considerable controversy, as has the hypothesis of periodicity of extinction. In response to criticisms and uncertainties, a data base was developed on times of extinction of marine animal genera. A time series is given and analyzed with 49 sample points for the per-genus extinction rate from the Late Permian to the Recent. An unexpected pattern in the data is the uniformity of magnitude of many of the periodic extinction events. Observations suggest that the sequence of extinction events might be the result of two sets of mechanisms: a periodic forcing that normally induces only moderate amounts of extinction, and independent incidents or catastrophes that, when coincident with the periodic forcing, amplify its signal and produce major-mass extinctions.

  10. Can Parallelingualism Save Norwegian from Extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linn, Andrew R.

    2010-01-01

    Language extinction is one of the most pressing issues in linguistics today, and the literature is full of discussion about how to combat it. Statements that Norwegian is amongst the languages that are already extinct are merely examples of a widespread tendency in the literature towards erroneous information about Norwegian. Nonetheless, there is…

  11. Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alroy, John

    2015-10-20

    There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed. The method also appears to be insensitive to trends in sampling; therefore, the counts it provides are absolute minimums. Extinctions or severe population crashes have accumulated steadily since the 1970s and 1980s, and at least 3.1% of frog species have already disappeared. Based on these data and this conservative method, the best estimate of the global grand total is roughly 200 extinctions. Consistent with previous results, frog losses are heavy in Latin America, which has been greatly affected by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Extinction rates are now four orders-of-magnitude higher than background, and at least another 6.9% of all frog species may be lost within the next century, even if there is no acceleration in the growth of environmental threats.

  12. Out-of-Time Beam Extinction in the MU2E Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prebys, E. J. [Fermilab; Werkema, S. [Fermilab

    2015-06-01

    The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a muon to an electron in the field of an atomic nucleus with unprecedented sensitivity. The experiment requires a beam consisting of proton bunches 250 ns FW long, separated by 1.7 $\\mu$ sec, with no out-of-time protons at the $10^{10}$ fractional level. Satisfying this "extinction" requirement is very challenging. The formation of the bunches is expected to result in an extinction on the order of $10^5$. The remaining extinction will be accomplished by a system of resonant magnets and collimators, configured such that only in-time beam is delivered to the experiment. Our simulations show that the total extinction achievable by the system is on the order of $10^{12}$, with an efficiency for transmitting in-time beam of 99.6%.

  13. Synchronous extinction of North America's Pleistocene mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faith, J. Tyler; Surovell, Todd A.

    2009-12-01

    The late Pleistocene witnessed the extinction of 35 genera of North American mammals. The last appearance dates of 16 of these genera securely fall between 12,000 and 10,000 radiocarbon years ago (≈13,800-11,400 calendar years B.P.), although whether the absence of fossil occurrences for the remaining 19 genera from this time interval is the result of sampling error or temporally staggered extinctions is unclear. Analysis of the chronology of extinctions suggests that sampling error can explain the absence of terminal Pleistocene last appearance dates for the remaining 19 genera. The extinction chronology of North American Pleistocene mammals therefore can be characterized as a synchronous event that took place 12,000-10,000 radiocarbon years B.P. Results favor an extinction mechanism that is capable of wiping out up to 35 genera across a continent in a geologic instant.

  14. Mass extinction in poorly known taxa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Régnier, Claire; Achaz, Guillaume; Lambert, Amaury; Cowie, Robert H; Bouchet, Philippe; Fontaine, Benoît

    2015-06-23

    Since the 1980s, many have suggested we are in the midst of a massive extinction crisis, yet only 799 (0.04%) of the 1.9 million known recent species are recorded as extinct, questioning the reality of the crisis. This low figure is due to the fact that the status of very few invertebrates, which represent the bulk of biodiversity, have been evaluated. Here we show, based on extrapolation from a random sample of land snail species via two independent approaches, that we may already have lost 7% (130,000 extinctions) of the species on Earth. However, this loss is masked by the emphasis on terrestrial vertebrates, the target of most conservation actions. Projections of species extinction rates are controversial because invertebrates are essentially excluded from these scenarios. Invertebrates can and must be assessed if we are to obtain a more realistic picture of the sixth extinction crisis.

  15. Immediate extinction causes a less durable loss of performance than delayed extinction following either fear or appetitive conditioning

    OpenAIRE

    Woods, Amanda M.; Bouton, Mark E.

    2008-01-01

    Five experiments with rat subjects compared the effects of immediate and delayed extinction on the durability of extinction learning. Three experiments examined extinction of fear conditioning (using the conditioned emotional response method), and two experiments examined extinction of appetitive conditioning (using the food-cup entry method). In all experiments, conditioning and extinction were accomplished in single sessions, and retention testing took place 24 h after extinction. In both f...

  16. Retention of perceptual generalization of fear extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappens, Meike; Schroijen, Mathias; Van den Bergh, Omer; Van Diest, Ilse

    2015-12-01

    Fear reduction obtained during a fear extinction procedure can generalize from the extinction stimulus to other perceptually similar stimuli. Perceptual generalization of fear extinction typically follows a perceptual gradient, with increasing levels of fear reduction the more a stimulus resembles the extinction stimulus. The current study aimed to investigate whether perceptual generalization of fear extinction can be observed also after a retention interval of 24h. Fear was acquired to three geometrical figures of different sizes (CS(+), CS1(+) and CS2(+)) by consistently pairing them with a short-lasting suffocation experience (US). Three other geometrical figures that were never followed by the US served as control stimuli (CS(-), CS1(-), CS2(-)). Next, only the CS(+) was extinguished by presenting it in the absence of the US. One day later, fear responses to all stimuli were assessed without any US-presentation. Outcome measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance, US expectancy, respiratory rate and tidal volume. On day 2 spontaneous recovery of fear was observed in US expectancy and tidal volume, but not in the other outcomes. Evidence for the retention of fear extinction generalization was present in US expectancy and skin conductance, but a perceptual gradient in the retention of generalized fear extinction could not be observed.

  17. Resistance to extinction and behavioral momentum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevin, John A

    2012-05-01

    In the metaphor of behavioral momentum, reinforcement is assumed to strengthen discriminated operant behavior in the sense of increasing its resistance to disruption, and extinction is viewed as disruption by contingency termination and reinforcer omission. In multiple schedules of intermittent reinforcement, resistance to extinction is an increasing function of reinforcer rate, consistent with a model based on the momentum metaphor. The partial-reinforcement extinction effect, which opposes the effects of reinforcer rate, can be explained by the large disruptive effect of terminating continuous reinforcement despite its strengthening effect during training. Inclusion of a term for the context of reinforcement during training allows the model to account for a wide range of multiple-schedule extinction data and makes contact with other formulations. The relation between resistance to extinction and reinforcer rate on single schedules of intermittent reinforcement is exactly opposite to that for multiple schedules over the same range of reinforcer rates; however, the momentum model can give an account of resistance to extinction in single as well as multiple schedules. An alternative analysis based on the number of reinforcers omitted to an extinction criterion supports the conclusion that response strength is an increasing function of reinforcer rate during training.

  18. Extinction as discrimination: the molar view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M

    2012-05-01

    The traditional molecular view of behavior explains extinction as the dissipation or inhibition of strength, formerly built up by contiguous reinforcement. In obstinate opposition to this explanation was the partial-reinforcement extinction effect: a partially reinforced response extinguishes more slowly than a continuously reinforced response. It suggests instead that extinction is discrimination. Four pigeons were exposed to daily sessions in which a variable period of food delivery, produced by pecking on a variable-interval schedule, was followed by extinction. The rate of food delivery was varied over a wide range across conditions. Varying the amount of food per delivery inversely with rate of delivery kept response rate from varying excessively. The results confirmed and extended the partial-reinforcement effect; persistence of pecking and time to extinction were inversely related to rate of obtaining food. The results support the molar view of extinction, not as loss of strength of a particular discrete response, but as a transition from one allocation of time among activities to another. Although molecular theories dismiss discrimination due to repeated training and extinction as an impurity or complication, repeated cycles of availability and privation are probably typical of the environment in which most vertebrate species evolved.

  19. Fear acquisition and extinction in offspring of mothers with anxiety and depressive disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Allison M; Peters, Rosie-Mae; Forrest, Kylee E; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Maternal anxiety and depression are significant risk factors for the development of these disorders in offspring. The pathways through which risk is conferred remain unclear. This study examined fear acquisition and extinction in 26 children at high risk for emotional disorders by virtue of maternal psychopathology (n=14 with a mother with a principal anxiety disorder and n=12 with a mother with a principal unipolar depressive disorder) and 31 low risk controls using a discriminative Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Participants, aged between 7 and 14 years, completed 16 trials of discriminative conditioning of two geometric figures, with (CS+) and without (CS-) an aversive tone (US), followed by 8 extinction trials (4×CS+, 4×CS-). In the context of comparable discriminative conditioning, children of anxious mothers showed larger skin conductance responses during extinction to the CS+ compared to the CS-, and to both CSs from the first to the second block of extinction trials, in comparison with low risk controls. Compared to low risk controls, children of depressed mothers showed smaller skin conductance responses to the CS+ than the CS- during acquisition. These findings suggest distinct psychophysiological premorbid risk markers in offspring of anxious and depressed mothers.

  20. Fear acquisition and extinction in offspring of mothers with anxiety and depressive disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison M. Waters

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Maternal anxiety and depression are significant risk factors for the development of these disorders in offspring. The pathways through which risk is conferred remain unclear. This study examined fear acquisition and extinction in 26 children at high risk for emotional disorders by virtue of maternal psychopathology (n = 14 with a mother with a principal anxiety disorder and n = 12 with a mother with a principal unipolar depressive disorder and 31 low risk controls using a discriminative Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Participants, aged between 7 and 14 years, completed 16 trials of discriminative conditioning of two geometric figures, with (CS+ and without (CS− an aversive tone (US, followed by 8 extinction trials (4 × CS+, 4 × CS−. In the context of comparable discriminative conditioning, children of anxious mothers showed larger skin conductance responses during extinction to the CS+ compared to the CS−, and to both CSs from the first to the second block of extinction trials, in comparison with low risk controls. Compared to low risk controls, children of depressed mothers showed smaller skin conductance responses to the CS+ than the CS− during acquisition. These findings suggest distinct psychophysiological premorbid risk markers in offspring of anxious and depressed mothers.

  1. Estimating extinction using unsupervised machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meingast, Stefan; Lombardi, Marco; Alves, João

    2017-05-01

    Dust extinction is the most robust tracer of the gas distribution in the interstellar medium, but measuring extinction is limited by the systematic uncertainties involved in estimating the intrinsic colors to background stars. In this paper we present a new technique, Pnicer, that estimates intrinsic colors and extinction for individual stars using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. This new method aims to be free from any priors with respect to the column density and intrinsic color distribution. It is applicable to any combination of parameters and works in arbitrary numbers of dimensions. Furthermore, it is not restricted to color space. Extinction toward single sources is determined by fitting Gaussian mixture models along the extinction vector to (extinction-free) control field observations. In this way it becomes possible to describe the extinction for observed sources with probability densities, rather than a single value. Pnicer effectively eliminates known biases found in similar methods and outperforms them in cases of deep observational data where the number of background galaxies is significant, or when a large number of parameters is used to break degeneracies in the intrinsic color distributions. This new method remains computationally competitive, making it possible to correctly de-redden millions of sources within a matter of seconds. With the ever-increasing number of large-scale high-sensitivity imaging surveys, Pnicer offers a fast and reliable way to efficiently calculate extinction for arbitrary parameter combinations without prior information on source characteristics. The Pnicer software package also offers access to the well-established Nicer technique in a simple unified interface and is capable of building extinction maps including the Nicest correction for cloud substructure. Pnicer is offered to the community as an open-source software solution and is entirely written in Python.

  2. Interstellar extinction by fractal polycrystalline graphite clusters?

    CERN Document Server

    Andersen, A C; Pustovit, V N; Niklasson, G A

    2001-01-01

    Certain dust particles in space are expected to appear as clusters of individual grains. The morphology of these clusters could be fractal or compact. To determine how these structural features would affect the interpretation of the observed interstellar extinction peak at $\\sim 4.6~\\mu$m, we have calculated the extinction by compact and fractal polycrystalline graphite clusters consisting of touching identical spheres. We compare three general methods for computing the extinction of the clusters, namely, a rigorous solution and two different discrete-dipole approximation methods.

  3. A model for evolution and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Roberts, B W; Roberts, Bruce W

    1995-01-01

    We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossil record. The model indicates that a possible mechanism for mass extinction is the coincidence of a large coevolutionary avalanche in the ecosystem with a severe environmental disturbance.

  4. Volcanogenic Dark Matter and Mass Extinctions

    CERN Document Server

    Abbas, S; Abbas, Samar; Abbas, Afsar

    1996-01-01

    The passage of the Earth through dense clumps of dark matter, the presence of which are predicted by certain cosmologies, would produce large quantities of heat in the interior of this planet through the capture and subsequent annihilation of dark matter particles. This heat can cause large-scale volcanism which could in turn have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs and other mass extinctions. The periodicity of such volcanic outbursts agrees with the frequency of palaeontological mass extinctions as well as the observed periodicity in the occurrence of the largest flood basalt provinces on the globe.

  5. A mathematical model for Neanderthal extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Flores, J C

    1997-01-01

    A simple mathematical homogeneous model of competition is used to describe Neanderthal extinction in Europe. It considers two interacting species, Neanderthals and Early Modern Men, in the same ecological niche. Using paleontological data we claim that the parameter of similarity, between both species, fluctuates between 0.992 and 0.997. An extension of the model including migration (diffusion) is also discussed nevertheless, extinction of Neanderthal seems unavoidable. Numerical analysis of travelling wave solution (fronts) comfirms the extinction. The wave-front-velocity is estimated from linear analysis and numerical simulations confirm this estimation. We conjecture a mathematical formulation for the principle of exclusion between competitive interacting species (Gause).

  6. Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringma, Jeremy L; Wintle, Brendan; Fuller, Richard A; Fisher, Diana; Bode, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Extinction from a rationalist perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R

    2012-05-01

    The merging of the computational theory of mind and evolutionary thinking leads to a kind of rationalism, in which enduring truths about the world have become implicit in the computations that enable the brain to cope with the experienced world. The dead reckoning computation, for example, is implemented within the brains of animals as one of the mechanisms that enables them to learn where they are (Gallistel, 1990, 1995). It integrates a velocity signal with respect to a time signal. Thus, the manner in which position and velocity relate to one another in the world is reflected in the manner in which signals representing those variables are processed in the brain. I use principles of information theory and Bayesian inference to derive from other simple principles explanations for: (1) the failure of partial reinforcement to increase reinforcements to acquisition; (2) the partial reinforcement extinction effect; (3) spontaneous recovery; (4) renewal; (5) reinstatement; (6) resurgence (aka facilitated reacquisition). Like the principle underlying dead-reckoning, these principles are grounded in analytic considerations. They are the kind of enduring truths about the world that are likely to have shaped the brain's computations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; M. F. Graswinckel,; M.R. de Baar,

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This

  9. Biogeographic and bathymetric determinants of brachiopod extinction and survival during the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finnegan, Seth; Mac Ørum Rasmussen, Christian; Harper, David A. T.

    2016-01-01

    The Late Ordovician mass extinction (LOME) coincided with dramatic climate changes, but there are numerous ways in which these changes could have driven marine extinctions. We use a palaeobiogeographic database of rhynchonelliform brachiopods to examine the selectivity of Late Ordovician......–Early Silurian genus extinctions and evaluate which extinction drivers are best supported by the data. The first (latest Katian) pulse of the LOME preferentially affected genera restricted to deeper waters or to relatively narrow (less than 35°) palaeolatitudinal ranges. This pattern is only observed...... in the latest Katian, suggesting that it reflects drivers unique to this interval. Extinction of exclusively deeper-water genera implies that changes in water mass properties such as dissolved oxygen content played an important role. Extinction of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges suggests that interactions...

  10. Serotonin transporter polyadenylation polymorphism modulates the retention of fear extinction memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Catherine A; McKenna, Morgan C; Salman, Rabia; Holmes, Andrew; Casey, B J; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Glatt, Charles E

    2012-04-01

    Growing evidence suggests serotonin's role in anxiety and depression is mediated by its effects on learned fear associations. Pharmacological and genetic manipulations of serotonin signaling in mice alter the retention of fear extinction learning, which is inversely associated with anxious temperament in mice and humans. Here, we test whether genetic variation in serotonin signaling in the form of a common human serotonin transporter polyadenylation polymorphism (STPP/rs3813034) is associated with spontaneous fear recovery after extinction. We show that the risk allele of this polymorphism is associated with impaired retention of fear extinction memory and heightened anxiety and depressive symptoms. These STPP associations in humans mirror the phenotypic effects of serotonin transporter knockout in mice, highlighting the STPP as a potential genetic locus underlying interindividual differences in serotonin transporter function in humans. Furthermore, we show that the serotonin transporter polyadenylation profile associated with the STPP risk allele is altered through the chronic administration of fluoxetine, a treatment that also facilitates retention of extinction learning. The propensity to form persistent fear associations due to poor extinction recall may be an intermediate phenotype mediating the effects of genetic variation in serotonergic function on anxiety and depression. The consistency and specificity of these data across species provide robust support for this hypothesis and suggest that the little-studied STPP may be an important risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders in humans.

  11. Epidemic extinction and control in heterogeneous networks

    CERN Document Server

    Hindes, Jason

    2016-01-01

    We consider epidemic extinction in finite networks with broad variation in local connectivity. Generalizing the theory of large fluctuations to random networks with a given degree distribution, we are able to predict the most probable, or optimal, paths to extinction in various configurations, including truncated power-laws. We find that paths for heterogeneous networks follow a limiting form in which infection first decreases in low-degree nodes, which triggers a rapid extinction in high- degree nodes, and finishes with a residual low-degree extinction. The usefulness of the approach is further demonstrated through optimal control strategies that leverage finite-size fluctuations. Interestingly, we find that the optimal control is a mix of treating both high and low-degree nodes based on large-fluctuation theoretical predictions.

  12. Protostars at Low Extinction in Orion A

    CERN Document Server

    Lewis, John Arban

    2016-01-01

    In the list of young stellar objects compiled by Megeath et al. (2012) for the Orion A molecular cloud, only 44 out of 1208 sources found projected onto low extinction (Ak<0.8 mag) gas are identified as protostars. These objects are puzzling because protostars are not typically expected to be associated with extended low extinction material. Here, we use high resolution extinction maps generated from Herschel data, optical/infrared and Spitzer Space Telescope photometry and spectroscopy of the low extinction protostellar candidate sources to determine if they are likely true protostellar sources or contaminants. Out of 44 candidate objects, we determine that 10 sources are likely protostars, with the rest being more evolved young stellar objects (18), galaxies (4), false detections of nebulosity and cloud edges (9), or real sources for which more data are required to ascertain their nature (3). We find none of the confirmed protostars to be associated with recognizable dense cores and we briefly discuss po...

  13. UV extinction properties of carina nebular dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massa, Derck

    1993-01-01

    I have performed an analysis of the UV extinction by dust along the line of sight to the young open cluster Tr 16. The observed curves are parameterized in order to extract quantitative information about the structure of the curves. Furthermore, by constructing differential extinction curves, obtained by differencing curves for stars which lie within a few arc seconds of each other on the sky, I was able to obtain a curve which is free of the effects of foreground extinction, and represents the extinction by the dust in the Tr 16 molecular cloud. I then show that this curve is nearly identical to one due to dust in the Orion molecular cloud. This result shows that dust in the Carina arm exhibits the same behavior as that in the local arm.

  14. Possible involvement of serotonin in extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beninger, R J; Phillips, A G

    1979-01-01

    In Experiment 1, rats were trained to leverpress for continuous reinforcement with food; half were then intubated with the serotonin synthesis inhibitor parachlorophenylalanine (PCPA: 400 mg/kg) and half with water. In extinction the PCPA-treated rats responded at a higher rate. In Experiment 2, rats were trained on a random interval schedule and then assigned to two groups, treated as in Experiment 1, and tested in extinction. There was no significant difference in the resistance to extinction of the two groups. In Experiment 3, the responding of rats trained in a punished stepdown response paradigm and then given an intragastric injection of PCPA took longer to recover than the responding of water-injected controls. These observations suggest that serotonergic neurons might play a role in extinction processes.

  15. Calibrating the end-Permian mass extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Shu-zhong; Crowley, James L; Wang, Yue; Bowring, Samuel A; Erwin, Douglas H; Sadler, Peter M; Cao, Chang-qun; Rothman, Daniel H; Henderson, Charles M; Ramezani, Jahandar; Zhang, Hua; Shen, Yanan; Wang, Xiang-dong; Wang, Wei; Mu, Lin; Li, Wen-zhong; Tang, Yue-gang; Liu, Xiao-lei; Liu, Lu-jun; Zeng, Yong; Jiang, Yao-fa; Jin, Yu-gan

    2011-12-09

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most severe biodiversity crisis in Earth history. To better constrain the timing, and ultimately the causes of this event, we collected a suite of geochronologic, isotopic, and biostratigraphic data on several well-preserved sedimentary sections in South China. High-precision U-Pb dating reveals that the extinction peak occurred just before 252.28 ± 0.08 million years ago, after a decline of 2 per mil (‰) in δ(13)C over 90,000 years, and coincided with a δ(13)C excursion of -5‰ that is estimated to have lasted ≤20,000 years. The extinction interval was less than 200,000 years and synchronous in marine and terrestrial realms; associated charcoal-rich and soot-bearing layers indicate widespread wildfires on land. A massive release of thermogenic carbon dioxide and/or methane may have caused the catastrophic extinction.

  16. Periodicity of extinctions in the geologic past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, D M; Sepkoski, J J

    1984-02-01

    The temporal distribution of the major extinctions over the past 250 million years has been investigated statistically using various forms of time series analysis. The analyzed record is based on variation in extinction intensity for fossil families of marine vertebrates, invertebrates, and protozoans and contains 12 extinction events. The 12 events show a statistically significant periodicity (P less than 0.01) with a mean interval between events of 26 million years. Two of the events coincide with extinctions that have been previously linked to meteorite impacts (terminal Cretaceous and Late Eocene). Although the causes of the periodicity are unknown, it is possible that they are related to extraterrestrial forces (solar, solar system, or galactic).

  17. Three Color Particle Optical Extinction Monitor Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to design, build and test a multi-color (red, green, blue) particle optical extinction monitor suitable for use in either land or airborne applications....

  18. Optical atmospheric extinction over Cerro Paranal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patat, F; Moehler, S; O'Brien, K; Pompei, E; Bensby, T; Carraro, G; Ugarte Postigo, de, A; Fox, A; Gavignaud, I; James, G; Korhonen, H; Ledoux, C; Randall, S; Sana, H.A.A; Smoker, J; Stefl, S; Szeifert, T

    2011-01-01

    Aims. The present study was conducted to determine the optical extinction curve for Cerro Paranal under typical clear-sky observing conditions, with the purpose of providing the community with a function...

  19. Extinction in the Lotka-Volterra model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Matthew; Kamenev, Alex

    2009-08-01

    Birth-death processes often exhibit an oscillatory behavior. We investigate a particular case where the oscillation cycles are marginally stable on the mean-field level. An iconic example of such a system is the Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interaction. Fluctuation effects due to discreteness of the populations destroy the mean-field stability and eventually drive the system toward extinction of one or both species. We show that the corresponding extinction time scales as a certain power-law of the population sizes. This behavior should be contrasted with the extinction of models stable in the mean-field approximation. In the latter case the extinction time scales exponentially with size.

  20. Biomarker Records Associated with Mass Extinction Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteside, Jessica H.; Grice, Kliti

    2016-06-01

    The history of life on Earth is punctuated by a series of mass extinction episodes that vary widely in their magnitude, duration, and cause. Biomarkers are a powerful tool for the reconstruction of historical environmental conditions and can therefore provide insights into the cause and responses to ancient extinction events. In examining the five largest mass extinctions in the geological record, investigators have used biomarkers to elucidate key processes such as eutrophy, euxinia, ocean acidification, changes in hydrological balance, and changes in atmospheric CO2. By using these molecular fossils to understand how Earth and its ecosystems have responded to unusual environmental activity during these extinctions, models can be made to predict how Earth will respond to future changes in its climate.

  1. Anthropogenic stressors and riverine fish extinctions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias, M.S.; Tedesco, P.A.; Hugueny, B.; Jézéquel, C.; Beauchard, O.; Brosse, S.; Oberdorff, T.

    2017-01-01

    Human activities are often implicated in the contemporary extinction of contemporary species. Concerningriverine fishes, the major biotic and abiotic threats widely cited include introduction of non-nativespecies, habitat fragmentation and homogenization in stream flow dynamics due to the damming

  2. Extinction in the Galaxy from surface brightnesses of ESO-LV galaxies: testing 'standard' extinction maps

    OpenAIRE

    Choloniewski, Jacek; Valentijn, Edwin A.

    2003-01-01

    The relative extinction in the Galaxy computed with our new method (Choloniewski and Valentijn 2003, CV) is compared with three patterns: Schlegel, Finkbeiner and Davis (1998, SFD), Burstein and Heiles (1978, BH) and the cosecans law. It is shown that extinction of SFD is more reliable then that of BH since it stronger correlates with our new extinction. The smallest correlation coeffcient have been obtained for the cosecans law. Linear regression analysis show that SFD overestimate the extin...

  3. An Analysis of the Shapes of Ultraviolet Extinction Curves. IV. Extinction without Standards

    OpenAIRE

    Fitzpatrick, Edward L.; Massa, Derck

    2005-01-01

    We present a new method for deriving UV-through-IR extinction curves, based on the use of stellar atmosphere models to provide estimates of the intrinsic (i.e., unreddened) stellar spectral energy distributions (SEDs), rather than unreddened (or lightly reddened) standard stars. We show that this ``extinction-without-standards'' technique greatly increases the accuracy of the derived extinction curves and allows realistic estimations of the uncertainties. An additional benefit of the techniqu...

  4. Demography and the extinction of European Neanderthals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent

    2011-01-01

    Causes previously suggested for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) in Europe, starting around 35,000 years ago, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. The aim here is to formulate a demographic model with reconstructed fertility and de...... Human newcomers during the last part of the period. The conclusion is that other reasons for extinction than climate or starvation must be sought....

  5. Software fires detection and extinction for forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos García Seco

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This article shows the most usual fire detection and forest extinction application technologies at present. We will see all different methods used by these applications that can be found in the Market and some examples. Also, some basic questions about the most influent parameters when a fire must be extinct are shown. Finally, after having shown all the technologies, we will build a model about an intelligent system which not only detects, but also extinguish wildfires.

  6. Extinction rates of established spatial populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerson, Baruch; Sasorov, Pavel V.

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a “refuge” as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations between neighboring sites. In extinction scenario I, the zero population size is a repelling fixed point of the on-site deterministic dynamics. In extinction scenario II, the zero population size is an attracting fixed point, corresponding to what is known in ecology as the Allee effect. Assuming a large population size, we develop a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation to the master equation. The resulting Hamilton’s equations encode the most probable path of the population toward extinction and the mean time to extinction. In the fast-migration limit these equations coincide, up to a canonical transformation, with those obtained, in a different way, by Elgart and Kamenev [Phys. Rev. EPHYADX1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.70.041106 70, 041106 (2004)]. We classify possible regimes of population extinction with and without an Allee effect and for different types of refuge, and solve several examples analytically and numerically. For a very strong Allee effect, the extinction problem can be mapped into the overdamped limit of the theory of homogeneous nucleation due to Langer [Ann. Phys. (NY)APNYA60003-491610.1016/0003-4916(69)90153-5 54, 258 (1969)]. In this regime, and for very long systems, we predict an optimal refuge size that maximizes the mean time to extinction.

  7. Extinction as the loss of evolutionary history

    OpenAIRE

    Erwin, Douglas H.

    2008-01-01

    Current plant and animal diversity preserves at most 1–2% of the species that have existed over the past 600 million years. But understanding the evolutionary impact of these extinctions requires a variety of metrics. The traditional measurement is loss of taxa (species or a higher category) but in the absence of phylogenetic information it is difficult to distinguish the evolutionary depth of different patterns of extinction: the same species loss can encompass very different losses of evolu...

  8. Demography and the extinction of European Neanderthals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent

    2011-01-01

    Causes previously suggested for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) in Europe, starting around 35,000 years ago, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. The aim here is to formulate a demographic model with reconstructed fertility and de...... Human newcomers during the last part of the period. The conclusion is that other reasons for extinction than climate or starvation must be sought....

  9. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  10. Evidence and mapping of extinction debts for global forest-dwelling reptiles, amphibians and mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Youhua; Peng, Shushi

    2017-03-01

    Evidence of extinction debts for the global distributions of forest-dwelling reptiles, mammals and amphibians was tested and the debt magnitude was estimated and mapped. By using different correlation tests and variable importance analysis, the results showed that spatial richness patterns for the three forest-dwelling terrestrial vertebrate groups had significant and stronger correlations with past forest cover area and other variables in the 1500 s, implying the evidence for extinction debts. Moreover, it was likely that the extinction debts have been partially paid, given that their global richness patterns were also significantly correlated with contemporary forest variables in the 2000 s (but the absolute magnitudes of the correlation coefficients were usually smaller than those calculated for historical forest variables). By utilizing species-area relationships, spatial extinction-debt magnitudes for the three vertebrate groups at the global scale were estimated and the hotspots of extinction debts were identified. These high-debt hotspots were generally situated in areas that did not spatially overlap with hotspots of species richness or high extinction-risk areas based on IUCN threatened status to a large extent. This spatial mismatch pattern suggested that necessary conservation efforts should be directed toward high-debt areas that are still overlooked.

  11. Evidence and mapping of extinction debts for global forest-dwelling reptiles, amphibians and mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Youhua; Peng, Shushi

    2017-01-01

    Evidence of extinction debts for the global distributions of forest-dwelling reptiles, mammals and amphibians was tested and the debt magnitude was estimated and mapped. By using different correlation tests and variable importance analysis, the results showed that spatial richness patterns for the three forest-dwelling terrestrial vertebrate groups had significant and stronger correlations with past forest cover area and other variables in the 1500 s, implying the evidence for extinction debts. Moreover, it was likely that the extinction debts have been partially paid, given that their global richness patterns were also significantly correlated with contemporary forest variables in the 2000 s (but the absolute magnitudes of the correlation coefficients were usually smaller than those calculated for historical forest variables). By utilizing species-area relationships, spatial extinction-debt magnitudes for the three vertebrate groups at the global scale were estimated and the hotspots of extinction debts were identified. These high-debt hotspots were generally situated in areas that did not spatially overlap with hotspots of species richness or high extinction-risk areas based on IUCN threatened status to a large extent. This spatial mismatch pattern suggested that necessary conservation efforts should be directed toward high-debt areas that are still overlooked. PMID:28300200

  12. Controlled cortical impact before or after fear conditioning does not affect fear extinction in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra-Mercado, Demetrio; McAllister, Lauren M; Lee, Christopher C H; Milad, Mohammed R; Eskandar, Emad N; Whalen, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is characterized in part by impaired extinction of conditioned fear. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is thought to be a risk factor for development of PTSD. We tested the hypothesis that controlled cortical impact (CCI) would impair extinction of fear learned by Pavlovian conditioning, in mice. To mimic the scenarios in which TBI occurs prior to or after exposure to an aversive event, severe CCI was delivered to the left parietal cortex at one of two time points: (1) Prior to fear conditioning, or (2) after conditioning. Delay auditory conditioning was achieved by pairing a tone with a foot shock in "context A". Extinction training involved the presentation of tones in a different context (context B) in the absence of foot shock. Test for extinction memory was achieved by presentation of additional tones alone in context B over the following two days. In pre- or post-injury paradigms, CCI did not influence fear learning and extinction. Furthermore, CCI did not affect locomotor activity or elevated plus maze testing. Our results demonstrate that, within the time frame studied, CCI does not impair the acquisition and expression of conditioned fear or extinction memory.

  13. Compound Stimulus Extinction Reduces Spontaneous Recovery in Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Cesar A. O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design ("deepened extinction") shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately…

  14. Extinction rates in North American freshwater fishes, 1900-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhead, Noel M.

    2012-01-01

    Widespread evidence shows that the modern rates of extinction in many plants and animals exceed background rates in the fossil record. In the present article, I investigate this issue with regard to North American freshwater fishes. From 1898 to 2006, 57 taxa became extinct, and three distinct populations were extirpated from the continent. Since 1989, the numbers of extinct North American fishes have increased by 25%. From the end of the nineteenth century to the present, modern extinctions varied by decade but significantly increased after 1950 (post-1950s mean = 7.5 extinct taxa per decade). In the twentieth century, freshwater fishes had the highest extinction rate worldwide among vertebrates. The modern extinction rate for North American freshwater fishes is conservatively estimated to be 877 times greater than the background extinction rate for freshwater fishes (one extinction every 3 million years). Reasonable estimates project that future increases in extinctions will range from 53 to 86 species by 2050.

  15. Immediate Extinction Causes a Less Durable Loss of Performance than Delayed Extinction following Either Fear or Appetitive Conditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Amanda M.; Bouton, Mark E.

    2008-01-01

    Five experiments with rat subjects compared the effects of immediate and delayed extinction on the durability of extinction learning. Three experiments examined extinction of fear conditioning (using the conditioned emotional response method), and two experiments examined extinction of appetitive conditioning (using the food-cup entry method). In…

  16. Trophically Unique Species Are Vulnerable to Cascading Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Petchey, Owen L.; Eklöf, Anna; Borrvall, Charlotte; Ebenman, Bo

    2008-01-01

    Understanding which species might become extinct and the consequences of such loss is critical. One consequence is a cascade of further, secondary extinctions. While a significant amount is known about the types of communities and species that suffer secondary extinctions, little is known about the consequences of secondary extinctions for biodiversity. Here we examine the effect of these secondary extinctions on trophic diversity, the range of trophic roles played by the species in a communi...

  17. The use and risk of portable electronic devices while cycling among different age groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goldenbeld, C.; Houtenbos, M.; Ehlers, E.; De Waard, D.

    Introduction: In the Netherlands, a survey was set up to monitor the extent of the use of portable, electronic devices while cycling amongst different age groups of cyclists and to estimate the possible consequences for safety. Method: The main research questions concerned age differences in the

  18. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems on Online Electronic Gaming Machines, Race Betting and Sports Betting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex M; Browne, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Growth of Internet gambling has fuelled concerns about its contribution to gambling problems. However, most online gamblers also gamble on land-based forms, which may be the source of problems for some. Studies therefore need to identify the problematic mode of gambling (online or offline) to identify those with an online gambling problem. Identifying most problematic form of online gambling (e.g., EGMs, race betting, sports betting) would also enable a more accurate examination of gambling problems attributable to a specific online gambling form. This study pursued this approach, aiming to: (1) determine demographic, behavioral and psychological risk factors for gambling problems on online EGMs, online sports betting and online race betting; (2) compare the characteristics of problematic online gamblers on each of these online forms. An online survey of 4,594 Australian gamblers measured gambling behavior, most problematic mode and form of gambling, gambling attitudes, psychological distress, substance use, help-seeking, demographics and problem gambling status. Problem/moderate risk gamblers nominating an online mode of gambling as their most problematic, and identifying EGMs (n = 98), race betting (n = 291) or sports betting (n = 181) as their most problematic gambling form, were compared to non-problem/low risk gamblers who had gambled online on these forms in the previous 12 months (n = 64, 1145 and 1213 respectively), using bivariate analyses and then logistic regressions. Problem/moderate risk gamblers on each of these online forms were then compared. Risk factors for online EGM gambling were: more frequent play on online EGMs, substance use when gambling, and higher psychological distress. Risk factors for online sports betting were being male, younger, lower income, born outside of Australia, speaking a language other than English, more frequent sports betting, higher psychological distress, and more negative attitudes toward gambling. Risk factors for

  19. Uncertainty in identifying local extinctions: the distribution of missing data and its effects on biodiversity measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boakes, Elizabeth H; Fuller, Richard A; McGowan, Philip J K; Mace, Georgina M

    2016-03-01

    Identifying local extinctions is integral to estimating species richness and geographic range changes and informing extinction risk assessments. However, the species occurrence records underpinning these estimates are frequently compromised by a lack of recorded species absences making it impossible to distinguish between local extinction and lack of survey effort-for a rigorously compiled database of European and Asian Galliformes, approximately 40% of half-degree cells contain records from before but not after 1980. We investigate the distribution of these cells, finding differences between the Palaearctic (forests, low mean human influence index (HII), outside protected areas (PAs)) and Indo-Malaya (grassland, high mean HII, outside PAs). Such cells also occur more in less peaceful countries. We show that different interpretations of these cells can lead to large over/under-estimations of species richness and extent of occurrences, potentially misleading prioritization and extinction risk assessment schemes. To avoid mistakes, local extinctions inferred from sightings records need to account for the history of survey effort in a locality.

  20. Development of an electronic medical record based alert for risk of HIV treatment failure in a low-resource setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Puttkammer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The adoption of electronic medical record systems in resource-limited settings can help clinicians monitor patients' adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART and identify patients at risk of future ART failure, allowing resources to be targeted to those most at risk. METHODS: Among adult patients enrolled on ART from 2005-2013 at two large, public-sector hospitals in Haiti, ART failure was assessed after 6-12 months on treatment, based on the World Health Organization's immunologic and clinical criteria. We identified models for predicting ART failure based on ART adherence measures and other patient characteristics. We assessed performance of candidate models using area under the receiver operating curve, and validated results using a randomly-split data sample. The selected prediction model was used to generate a risk score, and its ability to differentiate ART failure risk over a 42-month follow-up period was tested using stratified Kaplan Meier survival curves. RESULTS: Among 923 patients with CD4 results available during the period 6-12 months after ART initiation, 196 (21.2% met ART failure criteria. The pharmacy-based proportion of days covered (PDC measure performed best among five possible ART adherence measures at predicting ART failure. Average PDC during the first 6 months on ART was 79.0% among cases of ART failure and 88.6% among cases of non-failure (p<0.01. When additional information including sex, baseline CD4, and duration of enrollment in HIV care prior to ART initiation were added to PDC, the risk score differentiated between those who did and did not meet failure criteria over 42 months following ART initiation. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacy data are most useful for new ART adherence alerts within iSanté. Such alerts offer potential to help clinicians identify patients at high risk of ART failure so that they can be targeted with adherence support interventions, before ART failure occurs.

  1. Racial/ethnic differences in electronic cigarette knowledge, social norms, and risk perceptions among current and former smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb Hooper, Monica; Kolar, Stephanie K

    2017-04-01

    Psychosocial factors that may affect electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) initiation or maintenance among racial/ethnic minorities are not well-understood. This study examined racial/ethnic differences in e-cigarette knowledge, risk perceptions, and social norms among current and former smokers. Individuals with a tobacco smoking history and an awareness of e-cigarettes (N=285) were recruited from the community from June to August 2014. Telephone-administered surveys assessed demographics, smoking status, and e-cigarette knowledge, risk perceptions, and normative beliefs. Analyses of covariance and multinomial logistic regression tested associations by race/ethnicity. Controlling for sociodemographics and smoking status, White participants scored significantly higher on e-cigarette knowledge, compared to both Hispanics and African Americans/Blacks. Knowledge was lower among African Americans/Blacks compared to Hispanics. Compared to both Whites and Hispanics, African American/Black participants held lower perceptions regarding e-cigarette health risks and were less likely to view e-cigarettes as addictive. Normative beliefs did not differ by race/ethnicity. In conclusion, e-cigarette knowledge, health risk perceptions, and perceived addictiveness differed by race/ethnicity. The variation in e-cigarette knowledge and beliefs among smokers and former smokers has implications for use, and potentially, dual use. Understanding these relationships in unrepresented populations can inform future research and practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Identifying risk factors for healthcare-associated infections from electronic medical record home address data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosenman Marc B

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Residential address is a common element in patient electronic medical records. Guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention specify that residence in a nursing home, skilled nursing facility, or hospice within a year prior to a positive culture date is among the criteria for differentiating healthcare-acquired from community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA infections. Residential addresses may be useful for identifying patients residing in healthcare-associated settings, but methods for categorizing residence type based on electronic medical records have not been widely documented. The aim of this study was to develop a process to assist in differentiating healthcare-associated from community-associated MRSA infections by analyzing patient addresses to determine if residence reported at the time of positive culture was associated with a healthcare facility or other institutional location. Results We identified 1,232 of the patients (8.24% of the sample with positive cultures as probable cases of healthcare-associated MRSA based on residential addresses contained in electronic medical records. Combining manual review with linking to institutional address databases improved geocoding rates from 11,870 records (79.37% to 12,549 records (83.91%. Standardization of patient home address through geocoding increased the number of matches to institutional facilities from 545 (3.64% to 1,379 (9.22%. Conclusions Linking patient home address data from electronic medical records to institutional residential databases provides useful information for epidemiologic researchers, infection control practitioners, and clinicians. This information, coupled with other clinical and laboratory data, can be used to inform differentiation of healthcare-acquired from community-acquired infections. The process presented should be extensible with little or no added data costs.

  3. Facilitation of extinction and re-extinction of operant behavior in mice by chlordiazepoxide and D-cycloserine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, Julian C; Norwood, Kelly

    2013-05-01

    The aim was to compare operant extinction with re-extinction following re-acquisition and to investigate neuropharmacological mechanisms through administration of drugs potentiating GABAergic or glutamatergic systems. Groups of C57Bl/6 mice were trained to lever press for food on a fixed ratio schedule, then extinguished with or without pre-session chlordiazepoxide or post-session d-cycloserine administration (15mg/kg in each case), then retrained to lever press for food, then re-extinguished with or without pre-session chlordiazepoxide or post-session d-cycloserine. Under vehicle injections, extinction and re-extinction curves were indistinguishable, but drug treatments showed that there was less resistance to extinction in the re-extinction phase. Chlordiazepoxide facilitated extinction and re-extinction, with an earlier effect during re-extinction. d-Cycloserine also facilitated extinction and re-extinction, with some evidence of an earlier effect during re-extinction. These results replicate and extend earlier findings with operant extinction, but differ from some previous reports of d-cycloserine on re-extinction of Pavlovian conditioned fear. Implications for accounts of the similarities and differences between neural mechanisms of extinction following either Pavlovian or operant conditioning, and applications of these findings, are discussed.

  4. Quantitative analysis of forest fire extinction efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel E. Castillo-Soto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Evaluate the economic extinction efficiency of forest fires, based on the study of fire combat undertaken by aerial and terrestrial means. Area of study, materials and methods: Approximately 112,000 hectares in Chile. Records of 5,876 forest fires that occurred between 1998 and 2009 were analyzed. The area further provides a validation sector for results, by incorporating databases for the years 2010 and 2012. The criteria used for measuring extinction efficiency were economic value of forestry resources, Contraction Factor analysis and definition of the extinction costs function. Main results: It is possible to establish a relationship between burnt area, extinction costs and economic losses. The method proposed may be used and adapted to other fire situations, requiring unit costs for aerial and terrestrial operations, economic value of the property to be protected and speed attributes of fire spread in free advance. Research highlights: The determination of extinction efficiency in containment works of forest fires and potential projection of losses, different types of plant fuel and local conditions favoring the spread of fire broaden the admissible ranges of a, φ and Ce considerably.

  5. Fluoxetine Facilitates Fear Extinction Through Amygdala Endocannabinoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Flynn, Shaun; Brockway, Emma; Kaugars, Katherine; Baldi, Rita; Ramikie, Teniel S; Cinar, Resat; Kunos, George; Patel, Sachin; Holmes, Andrew

    2016-05-01

    Pharmacologically elevating brain endocannabinoids (eCBs) share anxiolytic and fear extinction-facilitating properties with classical therapeutics, including the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, fluoxetine. There are also known functional interactions between the eCB and serotonin systems and preliminary evidence that antidepressants cause alterations in brain eCBs. However, the potential role of eCBs in mediating the facilitatory effects of fluoxetine on fear extinction has not been established. Here, to test for a possible mechanistic contribution of eCBs to fluoxetine's proextinction effects, we integrated biochemical, electrophysiological, pharmacological, and behavioral techniques, using the extinction-impaired 129S1/Sv1mJ mouse strain. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced a significant and selective increase in levels of anandamide in the BLA, and an associated decrease in activity of the anandamide-catabolizing enzyme, fatty acid amide hydrolase. Slice electrophysiological recordings showed that fluoxetine-induced increases in anandamide were associated with the amplification of eCB-mediated tonic constraint of inhibitory, but not excitatory, transmission in the BLA. Behaviorally, chronic fluoxetine facilitated extinction retrieval in a manner that was prevented by systemic or BLA-specific blockade of CB1 receptors. In contrast to fluoxetine, citalopram treatment did not increase BLA eCBs or facilitate extinction. Taken together, these findings reveal a novel, obligatory role for amygdala eCBs in the proextinction effects of a major pharmacotherapy for trauma- and stressor-related disorders and anxiety disorders.

  6. Determining the extragalactic extinction law with SALT

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelman, Ido; Kniazev, Alexei Y; Buckley, David; O'Donoghue, Darragh; Hashimoto, Yas; Loaring, Nicola; Romero, Encarni; Still, Martin; Vaisanen, Petri

    2008-01-01

    We present CCD imaging observations of early-type galaxies with dark lanes obtained with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) during its performance-verification phase. We derive the extinction law by the extragalactic dust in the dark lanes in the spectral range 1.11mu m^{-1} < lambda^{-1} < 2.94 mu m^{-1} by fitting model galaxies to the unextinguished parts of the image, and subtracting from these the actual images. We find that the extinction curves run parallel to the Galactic extinction curve, which implies that the properties of dust in the extragalactic enviroment are similar to those of the Milky Way. The ratio of the total V band extinction to the selective extinction between the V and B bands is derived for each galaxy with an average of 2.82+-0.38, compared to a canonical value of 3.1 for the Milky Way. The similar values imply that galaxies with well-defined dark lanes have characteristic dust grain sizes similar to those of Galactic dust.

  7. Disease and the dynamics of extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Hamish

    2012-10-19

    Invading infectious diseases can, in theory, lead to the extinction of host populations, particularly if reservoir species are present or if disease transmission is frequency-dependent. The number of historic or prehistoric extinctions that can unequivocally be attributed to infectious disease is relatively small, but gathering firm evidence in retrospect is extremely difficult. Amphibian chytridiomycosis and Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) are two very different infectious diseases that are currently threatening to cause extinctions in Australia. These provide an unusual opportunity to investigate the processes of disease-induced extinction and possible management strategies. Both diseases are apparently recent in origin. Tasmanian DFTD is entirely host-specific but potentially able to cause extinction because transmission depends weakly, if at all, on host density. Amphibian chytridiomycosis has a broad host range but is highly pathogenic only to some populations of some species. At present, both diseases can only be managed by attempting to isolate individuals or populations from disease. Management options to accelerate the process of evolution of host resistance or tolerance are being investigated in both cases. Anthropogenic changes including movement of diseases and hosts, habitat destruction and fragmentation and climate change are likely to increase emerging disease threats to biodiversity and it is critical to further develop strategies to manage these threats.

  8. Mass Extinctions and Biosphere-Geosphere Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothman, Daniel; Bowring, Samuel

    2015-04-01

    Five times in the past 500 million years, mass extinctions have resulted in the loss of greater than three-fourths of living species. Each of these events is associated with significant environmental change recorded in the carbon-isotopic composition of sedimentary rocks. There are also many such environmental events in the geologic record that are not associated with mass extinctions. What makes them different? Two factors appear important: the size of the environmental perturbation, and the time scale over which it occurs. We show that the natural perturbations of Earth's carbon cycle during the past 500 million years exhibit a characteristic rate of change over two orders of magnitude in time scale. This characteristic rate is consistent with the maximum rate that limits quasistatic (i.e., near steady-state) evolution of the carbon cycle. We identify this rate with marginal stability, and show that mass extinctions occur on the fast, unstable side of the stability boundary. These results suggest that the great extinction events of the geologic past, and potentially a "sixth extinction" associated with modern environmental change, are characterized by common mechanisms of instability.

  9. The transition from memory retrieval to extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cammarota Martín

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Memory is measured by measuring retrieval. Retrieval is often triggered by the conditioned stimulus (CS; however, as known since Pavlov, presentation of the CS alone generates extinction. One-trial avoidance (IA is a much used conditioned fear paradigm in which the CS is the safe part of a training apparatus, the unconditioned stimulus (US is a footshock and the conditioned response is to stay in the safe area. In IA, retrieval is measured without the US, as latency to step-down from the safe area (i.e., a platform. Extinction is installed at the moment of the first unreinforced test session, as clearly shown by the fact that many drugs, including PKA, ERK and protein synthesis inhibitors as well as NMDA receptor antagonists, hinder extinction when infused into the hippocampus or the basolateral amygdala at the moment of the first test session but not later. Some, but not all the molecular systems required for extinction are also activated by retrieval, further endorsing the hypothesis that although retrieval is behaviorally and biochemically necessary for the generation of extinction, this last process constitutes a new learning secondary to the unreinforced expression of the original trace.

  10. Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Wake, David B.; Vance T Vredenburg

    2008-01-01

    Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amp...

  11. Astrophysical life extinctions what killed the dinosaurs?

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon

    1999-01-01

    Geological records indicate that the exponential diversification of marine and continental life on Earth in the past 500 My was interrupted by many life extinctions. They also indicate that the major mass extinctions were correlated in time with large meteoritic impacts, gigantic volcanic eruptions, sea regressions and drastic changes in global climate. Some of these catastrophes coincided in time. The astrophysical life extinction mechanisms which were proposed so far, in particular, meteoritic impacts, nearby supernova explosions, passage through molecular or dark matter clouds, and Galactic gamma/cosmic ray bursts cannot explain the time coincidences between these catastrophes. However, recent observations suggest that many planetary-mass objects may be present in the outer solar system between the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud. Gravitational perturbations may occasionally bring them into the inner solar system. Their passage near Earth could have generated gigantic tidal waves, large volcanic eruptions, ...

  12. Life extinctions by neutron star mergers

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon; Shaviv, N J; Dar, Arnon; Laor, Ari; Shaviv, Nir J.

    1997-01-01

    High energy cosmic ray jets from nearby mergers or accretion induced collapse (AIC) of neutron stars (NS) that hit the atmosphere can produce lethal fluxes of atmospheric muons at ground level, underground and underwater, destroy the ozone layer and radioactivate the environment. They could have caused most of the massive life extinctions on planet Earth in the past 600 My. Biological mutations due to ionizing radiations could have caused the fast appearance of new species after the massive extinctions. An early warning of future extinctions due to NS mergers may be obtained by identifying, mapping and timing all the nearby binary neutron stars systems. A warning of an approaching cosmic ray burst from a nearby NS merger/AIC may be provided by a very intense gamma ray burst which preceeds it.

  13. Mammal extinctions, body size, and paleotemperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bown, T.M.; Holroyd, P.A.; Rose, K.D.

    1994-01-01

    There is a general inverse relationship between the natural logarithm of tooth area (a body size indicator) of some fossil mammals and paleotemperature during approximately 2.9 million years of the early Eocene in the Bighorn Basin of northwest Wyoming. When mean temperatures became warmer, tooth areas tended to become smaller. During colder times, larger species predominated; these generally became larger or remained the same size. Paleotemperature trends also markedly affected patterns of local (and, perhaps, regional) extinction and immigration. New species appeared as immigrants during or near the hottest (smaller forms) and coldest (larger forms) intervals. Paleotemperature trend reversals commonly resulted in the ultimate extinction of both small forms (during cooling intervals) and larger forms (during warming intervals). These immigrations and extinctions mark faunal turnovers that were also modulated by sharp increases in sediment accumulation rate.

  14. Does supplementary reinforcement of stereotypy facilitate extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, Claudia L; Iwata, Brian A; Wilson, David M; Thomason-Sassi, Jessica L; Roscoe, Eileen M

    2013-01-01

    Results of several studies suggest that delivery of supplemental (social) reinforcement for stereotypy might facilitate its subsequent extinction. We examined this possibility with 9 subjects who engaged in stereotypy by including methodological refinements to ensure that (a) subjects' stereotypy was maintained in the absence of social consequences, (b) supplementary reinforcers were highly preferred and were shown to be reinforcers for some behavior, and (c) subjects were exposed to lengthy reinforcement and extinction conditions. In spite of these modifications, only 4 subjects' stereotypy increased when supplementary reinforcement was delivered contingent on stereotypy, and no subject's stereotypy decreased below initial baseline levels when social reinforcement was subsequently withheld. Decreases in stereotypy occurred with the implementation of noncontingent reinforcement. Thus, delivery of supplementary reinforcers either did not increase stereotypy or did not facilitate extinction of stereotypy maintained by automatic reinforcement. We discuss the practical and conceptual bases of these results with respect to our current understanding of function-based interventions.

  15. Opportunities and costs for preventing vertebrate extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conde, Dalia Amor; Colchero, Fernando; Güneralp, Burak

    2015-01-01

    -oriented organisations that aims to protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species restricted to single sites, has identified 920 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, conifers and reef-building corals in 588 ‘trigger’ sites [3] . These are arguably the most irreplaceable category of important...... causes of biodiversity loss in part by establishing protected areas (Target 11) and preventing species extinctions (Target 12). To achieve this, increased interventions will be required for a large number of sites and species. The Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) [2] , a consortium of conservation...... biodiversity conservation sites. Protected area coverage of AZE sites is a key indicator of progress towards Target 11 [1] . Moreover, effective conservation of AZE sites is essential to achieve Target 12, as the loss of any of these sites would certainly result in the global extinction of at least one species...

  16. Extinction in four species cyclic competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intoy, Ben; Pleimling, Michel

    2013-08-01

    When four species compete stochastically in a cyclic way, the formation of two teams of mutually neutral partners is observed. In this paper we study through numerical simulations the extinction processes that can take place in this system both in the well mixed case as well as on different types of lattices. The different routes to extinction are revealed by the probability distribution of the domination time, i.e. the time needed for one team to fully occupy the system. If swapping is allowed between neutral partners, then the probability distribution is dominated by very long-lived states where a few very large domains persist, each domain being occupied by a mix of individuals from species that form one of the teams. Many aspects of the possible extinction scenarios are lost when only considering averaged quantities, such as for example the mean domination time.

  17. Opportunities and costs for preventing vertebrate extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conde, Dalia Amor; Colchero, Fernando; Güneralp, Burak

    2015-01-01

    -oriented organisations that aims to protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species restricted to single sites, has identified 920 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, conifers and reef-building corals in 588 ‘trigger’ sites [3] . These are arguably the most irreplaceable category of important...... causes of biodiversity loss in part by establishing protected areas (Target 11) and preventing species extinctions (Target 12). To achieve this, increased interventions will be required for a large number of sites and species. The Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) [2] , a consortium of conservation...... biodiversity conservation sites. Protected area coverage of AZE sites is a key indicator of progress towards Target 11 [1] . Moreover, effective conservation of AZE sites is essential to achieve Target 12, as the loss of any of these sites would certainly result in the global extinction of at least one species...

  18. Space Radiation Shielding Studies for Astronaut and Electronic Component Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Jordan Robert

    2010-01-01

    The dosimetry component of the Center for Radiation Engineering and Science for Space Exploration (CRESSE) will design, develop and characterize the response of a suite of radiation detectors and supporting instrumentation and electronics with three primary goals that will: (1) Use established space radiation detection systems to characterize the primary and secondary radiation fields existing in the experimental test-bed zones during exposures at particle accelerator facilities. (2) Characterize the responses of newly developed space radiation detection systems in the experimental test-bed zones during exposures at particle accelerator facilities, and (3) Provide CRESSE collaborators with detailed dosimetry information in experimental test-bed zones.

  19. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  20. Extinction Mapping of Nearby Galaxies Using LEGUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, Lauren; Walterbos, Rene A. M.; Calzetti, Daniela; Sabbi, Elena; Ubeda, Leonardo; LEGUS Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Extinction by dust affects studies of star formation and stellar evolution in galaxies. There are different ways to measure the distribution of dust column densities across galaxies. Here we present work based on extinctions measured towards individual massive stars.Isochrones of massive stars lie in the same location on a color-color diagram with little dependence on metallicity and luminosity class, so the extinction can be directly derived from the observed photometry. We develop a method for generating extinction maps using photometry of massive stars from the Hubble Space Telescope for the nearly 50 galaxies observed by the Legacy Extragalactic Ultraviolet Survey (LEGUS). The derived extinction maps will allow us to correct ground-based and HST Halpha maps for extinction, and will be used to constrain changes in the dust-to-gas ratio across the galaxy sample and in different star formation, metallicity and morphological environments. Previous studies have found links between galaxy metallicity and the dust-to-gas mass ratio. Dust abundance and gas metallicity are critical constraints for chemical and galaxy evolution models. We present a study of LEGUS galaxies spanning a range of distances, metallicities, and galaxy morphologies, including metal-poor dwarfs Holmberg I and II and giant spirals NGC 6503 and NGC 628. We see clear evidence for changes in the dust-to-gas mass ratio with changing metallicity. We also examine changes in the dust-to-gas mass ratio with galactocentric radius. Ultimately, we will provide constraints on the dust-to-gas mass ratio across a wide range of galaxy environments.

  1. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khasin, M; Dykman, M I

    2009-08-01

    Population extinction is of central interest for population dynamics. It may occur from a large rare fluctuation. We find that, in contrast to related large-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation systems display fragility, where the height of the effective barrier to be overcome in the fluctuation depends on the system parameters nonanalytically. We show that one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the susceptible-infectious-susceptible model, is fragile to total population fluctuations.

  2. Potential suitable areas of giant ground sloths dropped before its extinction in South America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Varela, Sara; Nogues, David Bravo;

    2012-01-01

    Here we analyze the effects that climatic changes through last ice age had on the potential distributions and extinction risk dynamics of two extinct species of South American giant ground sloths, Eremotherium laurillardi and Megatherium americanum. We tested the assumption of stability...... of the climate change, although do not support it as the unique stressor...... of the climate preferences through time for the two species and modeled their potential distributions at last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 ky BP) and mid-Holocene (6 ky BP) using Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling (BEM), fossil records and paleoclimatic simulations. The model predictions showed a drastic reduction...

  3. Frequency of decompression illness among recent and extinct mammals and "reptiles": a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Agnete Weinreich

    2017-08-01

    The frequency of decompression illness was high among the extinct marine "reptiles" and very low among the marine mammals. Signs of decompression illness are still found among turtles but whales and seals are unaffected. In humans, the risk of decompression illness is five times increased in individuals with Patent Foramen Ovale; this condition allows blood shunting from the venous circuit to the systemic circuit. This right-left shunt is characteristic of the "reptile" heart, and it is suggested that this could contribute to the high frequency of decompression illness in the extinct reptiles.

  4. Parrot Interpreter: Representation, Extinction and the Electronic Information Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Carter

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Humans, it seems, can’t get enough of parrots. Ethnography, folklore, psychology, and, of course, imaginative literature all offer copious evidence of our fantasy of living with, communicating with and even being parrots. The natural history of parrots and the cultural history of parrots present something of a conundrum: on the one hand, a massive destructiveness (illegal bird and feather trade, environment destruction, scientific collections; on the other, an often erotically inflected sympathetic identification leading to the production of new forms. It’s strange to realise that Europe is infested with a shadow population of captive and inbred budgerigars, whose numbers far exceed those remaining in the wild and who can never return to their origins. If, as our privileged other, our uncanny mimic and double, the parrot still fails to survive, what does this tell us about our economy of desire? It seems that to know is to consume and destroy; and that the apparent contrast between the operations of the rainforest loggers and bird-trappers and the sentimental representations and transformations parrot suffers in human society is overdrawn. How is this contradiction to be explained?

  5. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pourmahabadian

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The strain index (SI is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The aim of this study was to assess and analyze risk of developing DUE disorders in different jobs as well as hazard classification in an assembling electronic industry through SI method. Also, DUE disorders prevalence, work-related absenteeism and turnover extracted from SI results were compared and assessed by those obtained by Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire (NMQ. The findings of this study showed that more than 50% of investigated jobs are categorized as "hazardous" and there is a significant difference between SI mean in hazardous and safe jobs (P < 0.0001. In addition, significant difference was found between prevalence of DUE disorders in "safe" and "hazardous" jobs (P < 0.049. But, no significant difference (P = 0.3 was obtained between mean absenteeism in "safe" and hazardous jobs. Also, no significant difference statistically was found between turnover in "safe" and hazardous jobs (X2 = 0.133, P = 1 and high prevalence of DUE disorders is due to low turnover rate of workers.

  6. Extinction space--a method for the quantification and classification of changes in morphospace across extinction boundaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korn, Dieter; Hopkins, Melanie J; Walton, Sonny A

    2013-10-01

    Three main modes of extinction are responsible for reductions in morphological disparity: (1) random (caused by a nonselective extinction event); (2) marginal (a symmetric, selective extinction event trimming the margin of morphospace); and (3) lateral (an asymmetric, selective extinction event eliminating one side of the morphospace). These three types of extinction event can be distinguished from one another by comparing changes in three measures of morphospace occupation: (1) the sum of range along the main axes; (2) the sum of variance; and (3) the position of the centroid. Computer simulations of various extinction events demonstrate that the pre-extinction distribution of taxa (random or normal) in the morphospace has little influence on the quantification of disparity changes, whereas the modes of the extinction events play the major role. Together, the three disparity metrics define an "extinction-space" in which different extinction events can be directly compared with one another. Application of this method to selected extinction events (Frasnian-Famennian, Devonian-Carboniferous, and Permian-Triassic) of the Ammonoidea demonstrate the similarity of the Devonian events (selective extinctions) but the striking difference from the end-Permian event (nonselective extinction). These events differ in their mode of extinction despite decreases in taxonomic diversity of similar magnitude.

  7. Mutation induced extinction in finite populations: lethal mutagenesis and lethal isolation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Scott Wylie

    Full Text Available Reproduction is inherently risky, in part because genomic replication can introduce new mutations that are usually deleterious toward fitness. This risk is especially severe for organisms whose genomes replicate "semi-conservatively," e.g. viruses and bacteria, where no master copy of the genome is preserved. Lethal mutagenesis refers to extinction of populations due to an unbearably high mutation rate (U, and is important both theoretically and clinically, where drugs can extinguish pathogens by increasing their mutation rate. Previous theoretical models of lethal mutagenesis assume infinite population size (N. However, in addition to high U, small N can accelerate extinction by strengthening genetic drift and relaxing selection. Here, we examine how the time until extinction depends jointly on N and U. We first analytically compute the mean time until extinction (τ in a simplistic model where all mutations are either lethal or neutral. The solution motivates the definition of two distinct regimes: a survival phase and an extinction phase, which differ dramatically in both how τ scales with N and in the coefficient of variation in time until extinction. Next, we perform stochastic population-genetics simulations on a realistic fitness landscape that both (i features an epistatic distribution of fitness effects that agrees with experimental data on viruses and (ii is based on the biophysics of protein folding. More specifically, we assume that mutations inflict fitness penalties proportional to the extent that they unfold proteins. We find that decreasing N can cause phase transition-like behavior from survival to extinction, which motivates the concept of "lethal isolation." Furthermore, we find that lethal mutagenesis and lethal isolation interact synergistically, which may have clinical implications for treating infections. Broadly, we conclude that stably folded proteins are only possible in ecological settings that support sufficiently

  8. Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-03-29

    Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming.

  9. Breeding Young as a Survival Strategy during Earth’s Greatest Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Codron, Daryl; Huttenlocker, Adam K.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.; Ruta, Marcello

    2016-04-01

    Studies of the effects of mass extinctions on ancient ecosystems have focused on changes in taxic diversity, morphological disparity, abundance, behaviour and resource availability as key determinants of group survival. Crucially, the contribution of life history traits to survival during terrestrial mass extinctions has not been investigated, despite the critical role of such traits for population viability. We use bone microstructure and body size data to investigate the palaeoecological implications of changes in life history strategies in the therapsid forerunners of mammals before and after the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME), the most catastrophic crisis in Phanerozoic history. Our results are consistent with truncated development, shortened life expectancies, elevated mortality rates and higher extinction risks amongst post-extinction species. Various simulations of ecological dynamics indicate that an earlier onset of reproduction leading to shortened generation times could explain the persistence of therapsids in the unpredictable, resource-limited Early Triassic environments, and help explain observed body size distributions of some disaster taxa (e.g., Lystrosaurus). Our study accounts for differential survival in mammal ancestors after the PTME and provides a methodological framework for quantifying survival strategies in other vertebrates during major biotic crises.

  10. Breeding Young as a Survival Strategy during Earth’s Greatest Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Codron, Daryl; Huttenlocker, Adam K.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.; Ruta, Marcello

    2016-01-01

    Studies of the effects of mass extinctions on ancient ecosystems have focused on changes in taxic diversity, morphological disparity, abundance, behaviour and resource availability as key determinants of group survival. Crucially, the contribution of life history traits to survival during terrestrial mass extinctions has not been investigated, despite the critical role of such traits for population viability. We use bone microstructure and body size data to investigate the palaeoecological implications of changes in life history strategies in the therapsid forerunners of mammals before and after the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME), the most catastrophic crisis in Phanerozoic history. Our results are consistent with truncated development, shortened life expectancies, elevated mortality rates and higher extinction risks amongst post-extinction species. Various simulations of ecological dynamics indicate that an earlier onset of reproduction leading to shortened generation times could explain the persistence of therapsids in the unpredictable, resource-limited Early Triassic environments, and help explain observed body size distributions of some disaster taxa (e.g., Lystrosaurus). Our study accounts for differential survival in mammal ancestors after the PTME and provides a methodological framework for quantifying survival strategies in other vertebrates during major biotic crises. PMID:27044713

  11. The ethics of biometrics: the risk of social exclusion from the widespread use of electronic identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickins, Jeremy

    2007-03-01

    Discussions about biotechnology tend to assume that it is something to do with genetics or manipulating biological processes in some way. However, the field of biometrics-the measurement of physical characteristics-is also biotechnology and is likely to affect the lives of more people more quickly than any other form. The possibility of social exclusion resulting from the use of biometrics data for such uses as identity cards has not yet been fully explored. Social exclusion is unethical, as it unfairly discriminates against individuals or classes of people. Social exclusion is unethical, as it unfairly discriminates against individuals or classes of people. This article looks at some of the ways in which social exclusion might arise from the use of biometric data, and introduces a model of balancing individual interests with which to analyse whether it is justified to run the risk of excluding some members of society for the benefit of others.

  12. Optical atmospheric extinction over Cerro Paranal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patat, F.; Moehler, S.; O'Brien, K.; Pompei, E.; Bensby, T.; Carraro, G.; de Ugarte Postigo, A.; Fox, A.; Gavignaud, I.; James, G.; Korhonen, H.; Ledoux, C.; Randall, S.; Sana, H.A.A.; Smoker, J.; Stefl, S.; Szeifert, T.

    2011-01-01

    Aims. The present study was conducted to determine the optical extinction curve for Cerro Paranal under typical clear-sky observing conditions, with the purpose of providing the community with a function to be used to correct the observed spectra, with an accuracy of 0.01 mag airmass-1.

  13. Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brom, M.; Laan, E.; Everaerd, W.; Spinhoven, P.; Both, S.

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Extinction involves an inhibitory form of new learning that is highly dependent on the context for expression. This is supported by phenomena such as renewal and spontaneous recovery, which may help explain the persistence of appetitive behavior, and related problems such as

  14. Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brom, M.; Laan, E.; Everaerd, W.; Spinhoven, P.; Both, S.

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Extinction involves an inhibitory form of new learning that is highly dependent on the context for expression. This is supported by phenomena such as renewal and spontaneous recovery, which may help explain the persistence of appetitive behavior, and related problems such as addictions

  15. Attentional, Associative, and Configural Mechanisms in Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrauri, Jose A.; Schmajuk, Nestor A.

    2008-01-01

    The participation of attentional and associative mechanisms in extinction, spontaneous recovery, external disinhibition, renewal, reinstatement, and reacquisition was evaluated through computer simulations with an extant computational model of classical conditioning (N. A. Schmajuk, Y. Lam, & J. A. Gray, 1996; N. A. Schmajuk & J. A. Larrauri,…

  16. Methylphenidate Enhances Extinction of Contextual Fear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Antony D.; Cunningham, Christopher L.; Lattal, K. Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH, Ritalin) is a norepinephrine and dopamine transporter blocker that is widely used in humans for treatment of attention deficit disorder and narcolepsy. Although there is some evidence that targeted microinjections of MPH may enhance fear acquisition, little is known about the effect of MPH on fear extinction. Here, we show…

  17. Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirte Brom

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Extinction involves an inhibitory form of new learning that is highly dependent on the context for expression. This is supported by phenomena such as renewal and spontaneous recovery, which may help explain the persistence of appetitive behavior, and related problems such as addictions. Research on these phenomena in the sexual domain is lacking, where it may help to explain the persistence of learned sexual responses. METHOD: Men (n = 40 and women (n = 62 participated in a differential conditioning paradigm, with genital vibrotactile stimulation as US and neutral pictures as conditional stimuli (CSs. Dependent variables were genital and subjective sexual arousal, affect, US expectancy, and approach and avoid tendencies towards the CSs. Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses were studied by context manipulation (AAA vs. ABA condition. RESULTS: No renewal effect of genital conditioned responding could be detected, but an obvious recovery of US expectancy following a context change after extinction (ABA was demonstrated. Additionally, women demonstrated recovery of subjective affect and subjective sexual arousal. Participants in the ABA demonstrated more approach biases towards stimuli. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the context dependency of extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses in humans. This knowledge may have implications for the treatment of disturbances in sexual appetitive responses such as hypo- and hypersexuality.

  18. Mass extinctions caused by large bolide impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez, L.W.

    1987-07-01

    Evidence indicates that the collision of Earth and a large piece of Solar System derbris such as a meteoroid, asteroid or comet caused the great extinctions of 65 million years ago, leading to the transition from the age of the dinosaurs to the age of the mammals.

  19. Stressor controllability modulates fear extinction in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Catherine A; Gorun, Alyson; Reddan, Marianne C; Ramirez, Franchesca; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2014-09-01

    Traumatic events are proposed to play a role in the development of anxiety disorders, however not all individuals exposed to extreme stress experience a pathological increase in fear. Recent studies in animal models suggest that the degree to which one is able to control an aversive experience is a critical factor determining its behavioral consequences. In this study, we examined whether stressor controllability modulates subsequent conditioned fear expression in humans. Participants were randomly assigned to an escapable stressor condition, a yoked inescapable stressor condition, or a control condition involving no stress exposure. One week later, all participants underwent fear conditioning, fear extinction, and a test of extinction retrieval the following day. Participants exposed to inescapable stress showed impaired fear extinction learning and increased fear expression the following day. In contrast, escapable stress improved fear extinction and prevented the spontaneous recovery of fear. Consistent with the bidirectional controllability effects previously reported in animal models, these results suggest that one's degree of control over aversive experiences may be an important factor influencing the development of psychological resilience or vulnerability in humans.

  20. Self-extinction through optimizing selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvinen, Kalle; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2013-01-01

    Evolutionary suicide is a process in which selection drives a viable population to extinction. So far, such selection-driven self-extinction has been demonstrated in models with frequency-dependent selection. This is not surprising, since frequency-dependent selection can disconnect individual-level and population-level interests through environmental feedback. Hence it can lead to situations akin to the tragedy of the commons, with adaptations that serve the selfish interests of individuals ultimately ruining a population. For frequency-dependent selection to play such a role, it must not be optimizing. Together, all published studies of evolutionary suicide have created the impression that evolutionary suicide is not possible with optimizing selection. Here we disprove this misconception by presenting and analyzing an example in which optimizing selection causes self-extinction. We then take this line of argument one step further by showing, in a further example, that selection-driven self-extinction can occur even under frequency-independent selection. PMID:23583808

  1. Subwoofer and nanotube butterfly acoustic flame extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliev, Ali E.; Mayo, Nathanael K.; Baughman, Ray H.; Mills, Brent T.; Habtour, Ed

    2017-07-01

    Nonchemical flame control using acoustic waves from a subwoofer and a lightweight carbon nanotube thermoacoustic projector was demonstrated. The intent was to manipulate flame intensity, direction and propagation. The mechanisms of flame suppression using low frequency acoustic waves were discussed. Laminar flame control and extinction were achieved using a thermoacoustic ‘butterfly’ projector based on freestanding carbon nanotube sheets.

  2. Modeling the Infrared Extinction toward the Galactic Center

    CERN Document Server

    Gao, Jian; Jiang, B W

    2013-01-01

    We model the ~1--19$\\mum$ infrared (IR) extinction curve toward the Galactic Center (GC) in terms of the standard silicate-graphite interstellar dust model. The grains are taken to have a power law size distribution with an exponential decay above some size. The best-fit model for the GC IR extinction constrains the visual extinction to be Av~38--42 mag. The limitation of the model, i.e., its difficulty in simultaneously reproducing both the steep ~1--3$\\mum$ near-IR extinction and the flat ~3--8$\\mum$ mid-IR extinction is discussed. We argue that this difficulty could be alleviated by attributing the extinction toward the GC to a combination of dust in different environments: dust in diffuse regions (characterized by small Rv and steep near-IR extinction), and dust in dense regions (characterized by large Rv and flat UV extinction).

  3. Preservation of Natural Diversity: The Problem of Extinction Prone Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terborgh, John

    1974-01-01

    Examines threatened extinction of birds and recommends agencies adopt policies which minimize the pace of extinctions through the setting aside of large preserves which protect natural vegetation formation and the animal life. (BR)

  4. A REMARK ON EXTINCTION OF A CLASS OF SUPERPROCESSES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAOXUELEI

    1996-01-01

    The extinction of a class of superprocesses associated with general branching characteristics and underlying Markov processes is investigted, The extinction is closely associated with the branching characteristics and the recurrence and transience of underlying processes.

  5. Are Metals Emitted from Electronic Cigarettes a Reason for Health Concern? A Risk-Assessment Analysis of Currently Available Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos E. Farsalinos

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have found that metals are emitted to the electronic cigarette (EC aerosol. However, the potential health impact of exposure to such metals has not been adequately defined. The purpose of this study was to perform a risk assessment analysis, evaluating the exposure of electronic cigarette (EC users to metal emissions based on findings from the published literature. Methods: Two studies were found in the literature, measuring metals emitted to the aerosol from 13 EC products. We estimated that users take on average 600 EC puffs per day, but we evaluated the daily exposure from 1200 puffs. Estimates of exposure were compared with the chronic Permissible Daily Exposure (PDE from inhalational medications defined by the U.S. Pharmacopeia (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and nickel, the Minimal Risk Level (MRL defined by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (manganese and the Recommended Exposure Limit (REL defined by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (aluminum, barium, iron, tin, titanium, zinc and zirconium. Results: The average daily exposure from 13 EC products was 2.6 to 387 times lower than the safety cut-off point of PDEs, 325 times lower than the safety limit of MRL and 665 to 77,514 times lower than the safety cut-off point of RELs. Only one of the 13 products was found to result in exposure 10% higher than PDE for one metal (cadmium at the extreme daily use of 1200 puffs. Significant differences in emissions between products were observed. Conclusions: Based on currently available data, overall exposure to metals from EC use is not expected to be of significant health concern for smokers switching to EC use, but is an unnecessary source of exposure for never-smokers. Metal analysis should be expanded to more products and exposure can be further reduced through improvements in product quality and appropriate choice of materials.

  6. Endangered Species and Natural Resource Exploitation: Extinction vs. Coexistence

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    1994-01-01

    The threat on the survival of animal species due to intensive use of natural resources is incorporated within resource management models, paying special attention to uncertainty regarding the conditions that lead to extinction. The manner in which the potential benefits forgone due to the species extinction (denoted extinction penalty) induce more conservative exploitation policies is studied in detail. When the extinction penalty is ignored, the optimal policy is to drive the resource stock ...

  7. Grey Milky Way Extinction from SDSS Stellar Photometry

    OpenAIRE

    Gorbikov, Evgeny; Brosch, Noah

    2009-01-01

    We report results concerning the distribution and properties of galactic extinction at high galactic latitudes derived from stellar statistics using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We use the classical Wolf diagram method to identify regions with extinction, and derive the extinction and the extinction law of the dust using all five SDSS spectral bands. We estimate the distance to the extinguishing medium using simple assumptions about the stellar populations in the line of sight. We rep...

  8. Impending extinction crisis of the world's primates: Why primates matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Alejandro; Garber, Paul A; Rylands, Anthony B; Roos, Christian; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Nekaris, K Anne-Isola; Nijman, Vincent; Heymann, Eckhard W; Lambert, Joanna E; Rovero, Francesco; Barelli, Claudia; Setchell, Joanna M; Gillespie, Thomas R; Mittermeier, Russell A; Arregoitia, Luis Verde; de Guinea, Miguel; Gouveia, Sidney; Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Shanee, Sam; Shanee, Noga; Boyle, Sarah A; Fuentes, Agustin; MacKinnon, Katherine C; Amato, Katherine R; Meyer, Andreas L S; Wich, Serge; Sussman, Robert W; Pan, Ruliang; Kone, Inza; Li, Baoguo

    2017-01-01

    Nonhuman primates, our closest biological relatives, play important roles in the livelihoods, cultures, and religions of many societies and offer unique insights into human evolution, biology, behavior, and the threat of emerging diseases. They are an essential component of tropical biodiversity, contributing to forest regeneration and ecosystem health. Current information shows the existence of 504 species in 79 genera distributed in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, and Asia. Alarmingly, ~60% of primate species are now threatened with extinction and ~75% have declining populations. This situation is the result of escalating anthropogenic pressures on primates and their habitats-mainly global and local market demands, leading to extensive habitat loss through the expansion of industrial agriculture, large-scale cattle ranching, logging, oil and gas drilling, mining, dam building, and the construction of new road networks in primate range regions. Other important drivers are increased bushmeat hunting and the illegal trade of primates as pets and primate body parts, along with emerging threats, such as climate change and anthroponotic diseases. Often, these pressures act in synergy, exacerbating primate population declines. Given that primate range regions overlap extensively with a large, and rapidly growing, human population characterized by high levels of poverty, global attention is needed immediately to reverse the looming risk of primate extinctions and to attend to local human needs in sustainable ways. Raising global scientific and public awareness of the plight of the world's primates and the costs of their loss to ecosystem health and human society is imperative.

  9. Electronic cleansing for CT colonography: does it help CAD software performance in a high-risk population for colorectal cancer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wi, Jae Yeon [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Jongno-gu, Seoul (Korea); Kim, Se Hyung; Lee, Jae Young; Han, Joon Koo; Choi, Byung Ihn [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Jongno-gu, Seoul (Korea); Seoul National University Hospital, Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul (Korea); Kim, Sang Gyun [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    To compare the performance of computer-aided detection (CAD) for CT colonography (CTC) with and without electronic cleansing (EC) in a high-risk population tagged with a faecal tagging (FT) protocol. Thirty-two patients underwent CTC followed by same-day colonoscopy. All patients underwent bowel preparation and FT with barium and gastrografin. Each CTC dataset was processed with colon CAD with and without EC. Per-polyp sensitivity was calculated. The average number of false-positive (FP) results and their causes were also analysed and compared. Eighty-six polyps were detected in 29 patients. Per-polyp sensitivities of CAD with EC (93.8% and 100%) were higher than those without EC (84.4% and 87.5%) for polyps {>=}6 mm and {>=}10 mm, respectively. However, the differences were not significant. The average number (6.3) of FPs of CAD with EC was significantly larger than that (3.1) without EC. The distribution of FPs in both CAD settings was also significantly different. The most common cause of FPs was the ileocaecal valve in both datasets. However, untagged faeces was a significantly less common cause of FPs with EC, EC-related artefacts being more common. Electronic cleansing has the potential to improve per-polyp sensitivity of CTC CAD, although the significantly larger number of FPs with EC remains to be improved. (orig.)

  10. Interactions between demography, genetics, and landscape connectivity increase extinction probability for a small population of large carnivores in a major metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, John F; Mahoney, Peter J; Sikich, Jeff A; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pollinger, John P; Ernest, Holly B; Riley, Seth P D

    2016-08-31

    The extinction vortex is a theoretical model describing the process by which extinction risk is elevated in small, isolated populations owing to interactions between environmental, demographic, and genetic factors. However, empirical demonstrations of these interactions have been elusive. We modelled the dynamics of a small mountain lion population isolated by anthropogenic barriers in greater Los Angeles, California, to evaluate the influence of demographic, genetic, and landscape factors on extinction probability. The population exhibited strong survival and reproduction, and the model predicted stable median population growth and a 15% probability of extinction over 50 years in the absence of inbreeding depression. However, our model also predicted the population will lose 40-57% of its heterozygosity in 50 years. When we reduced demographic parameters proportional to reductions documented in another wild population of mountain lions that experienced inbreeding depression, extinction probability rose to 99.7%. Simulating greater landscape connectivity by increasing immigration to greater than or equal to one migrant per generation appears sufficient to largely maintain genetic diversity and reduce extinction probability. We provide empirical support for the central tenet of the extinction vortex as interactions between genetics and demography greatly increased extinction probability relative to the risk from demographic and environmental stochasticity alone. Our modelling approach realistically integrates demographic and genetic data to provide a comprehensive assessment of factors threatening small populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

  11. Extinction of chained instrumental behaviors: Effects of consumption extinction on procurement responding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrailkill, Eric A; Bouton, Mark E

    2016-03-01

    Operant behavior is typically organized into sequences of responses that eventually lead to a reinforcer. Response elements can be categorized as those that directly lead to reward consumption (i.e., a consumption response) and those that lead to the opportunity to make the consumption response (i.e., a procurement response). These responses often differ topographically and in terms of the discriminative stimuli that set the occasion for them. We have recently shown that extinction of the procurement response acts to weaken the specific associated consumption response, and that active inhibition of the procurement response is required for this effect. To expand the analysis of the associative structure of chains, in the present experiments we asked the reverse question: whether extinction of consumption behavior results in a decrease in the associated procurement response in a discriminated heterogeneous chain. In Experiment 1, extinction of consumption alone led to an attenuation of the associated procurement response only when rats were allowed to make the consumption response in extinction. Exposure to the consumption stimulus alone was not sufficient to produce weakened procurement responding. In Experiment 2, rats learned two distinct heterogeneous chains, and extinction of one consumption response specifically weakened the procurement response associated with it. The results add to the evidence suggesting that rats learn a highly specific associative structure in behavior chains, emphasizing the role of learning response inhibition in extinction.

  12. Psychological and neural mechanisms of experimental extinction: a selective review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delamater, Andrew R; Westbrook, R Frederick

    2014-02-01

    The present review examines key psychological concepts in the study of experimental extinction and implications these have for an understanding of the underlying neurobiology of extinction learning. We suggest that many of the signature characteristics of extinction learning (spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, rapid reacquisition) can be accommodated by the standard associative learning theory assumption that extinction results in partial erasure of the original learning together with new inhibitory learning. Moreover, we consider recent behavioral and neural evidence that supports the partial erasure view of extinction, but also note shortcomings in our understanding of extinction circuits as these relate to the negative prediction error concept. Recent work suggests that common prediction error and stimulus-specific prediction error terms both may be required to explain neural plasticity both in acquisition and extinction learning. In addition, we suggest that many issues in the content of extinction learning have not been fully addressed in current research, but that neurobiological approaches should be especially helpful in addressing such issues. These include questions about the nature of extinction learning (excitatory CS-No US, inhibitory CS-US learning, occasion setting processes), especially as this relates to studies of the micro-circuitry of extinction, as well as its representational content (sensory, motivational, response). An additional understudied problem in extinction research is the role played by attention processes and their underlying neural networks, although some research and theory converge on the idea that extinction is accompanied by attention decrements (i.e., habituation-like processes).

  13. Inhibition of Estradiol Synthesis Impairs Fear Extinction in Male Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Bronwyn M.; Milad, Mohammed R.

    2014-01-01

    Emerging research has demonstrated that the sex hormone estradiol regulates fear extinction in female rodents and women. Estradiol may also regulate fear extinction in males, given its role in synaptic plasticity in both sexes. Here we report that inhibition of estradiol synthesis during extinction training, via the aromatase inhibitor fadrozole,…

  14. Slower Reacquisition after Partial Extinction in Human Contingency Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morís, Joaquín; Barberia, Itxaso; Vadillo, Miguel A.; Andrades, Ainhoa; López, Francisco J.

    2017-01-01

    Extinction is a very relevant learning phenomenon from a theoretical and applied point of view. One of its most relevant features is that relapse phenomena often take place once the extinction training has been completed. Accordingly, as extinction-based therapies constitute the most widespread empirically validated treatment of anxiety disorders,…

  15. Fibroblast Growth Factor-2 Alters the Nature of Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Bronwyn M.; Richardson, Rick

    2011-01-01

    These experiments examined the effects of the NMDA-receptor (NMDAr) antagonist MK801 on reacquisition and re-extinction of a conditioned fear that had been previously extinguished before injection of fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF2) or vehicle. Recent findings have shown that relearning and re-extinction, unlike initial learning and extinction,…

  16. Estimating how many undescribed species have gone extinct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedesco, P A; Bigorne, R; Bogan, A E; Giam, X; Jézéquel, C; Hugueny, B

    2014-10-01

    Because both descriptions of species and modern human-driven extinctions started around the same time (i.e., eighteenth century), a logical expectation is that a large proportion of species may have gone extinct without ever having been recorded. Despite this evident and widely recognized assumption, the loss of undescribed species has never been estimated. We quantified this loss for several taxonomic groups and regions for which undescribed species extinctions are likely to have occurred. Across a wide range of taxonomic groups, we applied known extinction rates computed from recorded species losses to assumed exponential decay in the proportion of species remaining undiscovered. Because all previous modeling attempts to project total species richness implicitly assumed that undescribed species extinctions could be neglected, we also evaluated the effect of neglecting them. Finally, because we assumed constant description and extinction probabilities, we applied our model to simulated data that did not conform to this assumption. Actual species losses were severely underestimated by considering only known species extinctions. According to our estimates, the proportion of undiscovered extinct species over all extinctions ranged from 0.15 to 0.59, depending on the taxonomic group and the region considered. This means that recent extinctions may be up to twice as large as the number recorded. When species differed in their extinction or description probabilities, our model underestimated extinctions of undescribed species by up to 20%. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Sentiment Measured in Hospital Discharge Notes Is Associated with Readmission and Mortality Risk: An Electronic Health Record Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Cagan, Andrew; Roberson, Ashlee M; Kohane, Isaac S; Perlis, Roy H

    2015-01-01

    Natural language processing tools allow the characterization of sentiment--that is, terms expressing positive and negative emotion--in text. Applying such tools to electronic health records may provide insight into meaningful patient or clinician features not captured in coded data alone. We performed sentiment analysis on 2,484 hospital discharge notes for 2,010 individuals from a psychiatric inpatient unit, as well as 20,859 hospital discharges for 15,011 individuals from general medical units, in a large New England health system between January 2011 and 2014. The primary measures of sentiment captured intensity of subjective positive or negative sentiment expressed in the discharge notes. Mean scores were contrasted between sociodemographic and clinical groups in mixed effects regression models. Discharge note sentiment was then examined for association with risk for readmission in Cox regression models. Discharge notes for individuals with greater medical comorbidity were modestly but significantly lower in positive sentiment among both psychiatric and general medical cohorts (psentiment at discharge was associated with significantly decreased risk of hospital readmission in each cohort (~12% decrease per standard deviation above the mean). Automated characterization of discharge notes in terms of sentiment identifies differences between sociodemographic groups, as well as in clinical outcomes, and is not explained by differences in diagnosis. Clinician sentiment merits investigation to understand why and how it reflects or impacts outcomes.

  18. Sentiment Measured in Hospital Discharge Notes Is Associated with Readmission and Mortality Risk: An Electronic Health Record Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H McCoy

    Full Text Available Natural language processing tools allow the characterization of sentiment--that is, terms expressing positive and negative emotion--in text. Applying such tools to electronic health records may provide insight into meaningful patient or clinician features not captured in coded data alone. We performed sentiment analysis on 2,484 hospital discharge notes for 2,010 individuals from a psychiatric inpatient unit, as well as 20,859 hospital discharges for 15,011 individuals from general medical units, in a large New England health system between January 2011 and 2014. The primary measures of sentiment captured intensity of subjective positive or negative sentiment expressed in the discharge notes. Mean scores were contrasted between sociodemographic and clinical groups in mixed effects regression models. Discharge note sentiment was then examined for association with risk for readmission in Cox regression models. Discharge notes for individuals with greater medical comorbidity were modestly but significantly lower in positive sentiment among both psychiatric and general medical cohorts (p<0.001 in each. Greater positive sentiment at discharge was associated with significantly decreased risk of hospital readmission in each cohort (~12% decrease per standard deviation above the mean. Automated characterization of discharge notes in terms of sentiment identifies differences between sociodemographic groups, as well as in clinical outcomes, and is not explained by differences in diagnosis. Clinician sentiment merits investigation to understand why and how it reflects or impacts outcomes.

  19. Health behaviors and quality of life predictors for risk of hospitalization in an electronic health record-linked biobank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahashi PY

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Paul Y Takahashi,1,2 Euijung Ryu,3 Janet E Olson,3 Erin M Winkler,4 Matthew A Hathcock,3 Ruchi Gupta,3 Jeff A Sloan,3 Jyotishman Pathak,3 Suzette J Bielinski,3 James R Cerhan3 1Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, 2Department of Internal Medicine, 3Department of Health Sciences Research, 4Center for Individualized Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Background: Hospital risk stratification models using electronic health records (EHRs often use age and comorbid health burden. Our primary aim was to determine if quality of life or health behaviors captured in an EHR-linked biobank can predict future risk of hospitalization. Methods: Participants in the Mayo Clinic Biobank completed self-administered questionnaires at enrollment that included quality of life and health behaviors. Participants enrolled as of December 31, 2010 were followed for one year to ascertain hospitalization. Data on comorbidities and hospitalization were derived from the Mayo Clinic EHR. Hazard ratios (HR and 95% confidence interval (CI were used, adjusted for age and sex. We used gradient boosting machines models to integrate multiple factors. Different models were compared using C-statistic. Results: Of the 8,927 eligible Mayo Clinic Biobank participants, 834 (9.3% were hospitalized. Self-perceived health status and alcohol use had the strongest associations with risk of hospitalization. Compared to participants with excellent self-perceived health, those reporting poor/fair health had higher risk of hospitalization (HR =3.66, 95% CI 2.74–4.88. Alcohol use was inversely associated with hospitalization (HR =0.57 95% CI 0.45–0.72. The gradient boosting machines model estimated self-perceived health as the most influential factor (relative influence =16%. The predictive ability of the model based on comorbidities was slightly higher than the one based on the self-perceived health (C-statistic =0.67 vs 0.65. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that self

  20. The Impact of Electronic Health Records on Risk Management of Information Systems in Australian Residential Aged Care Homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Tao; Yu, Ping; Hailey, David; Ma, Jun; Yang, Jie

    2016-09-01

    To obtain indications of the influence of electronic health records (EHR) in managing risks and meeting information system accreditation standard in Australian residential aged care (RAC) homes. The hypothesis to be tested is that the RAC homes using EHR have better performance in meeting information system standards in aged care accreditation than their counterparts only using paper records for information management. Content analysis of aged care accreditation reports from the Aged Care Standards and Accreditation Agency produced between April 2011 and December 2013. Items identified included types of information systems, compliance with accreditation standards, and indicators of failure to meet an expected outcome for information systems. The Chi-square test was used to identify difference between the RAC homes that used EHR systems and those that used paper records in not meeting aged care accreditation standards. 1,031 (37.4%) of 2,754 RAC homes had adopted EHR systems. Although the proportion of homes that met all accreditation standards was significantly higher for those with EHR than for homes with paper records, only 13 RAC homes did not meet one or more expected outcomes. 12 used paper records and nine of these failed the expected outcome for information systems. The overall contribution of EHR to meeting aged care accreditation standard in Australia was very small. Risk indicators for not meeting information system standard were no access to accurate and appropriate information, failure in monitoring mechanisms, not reporting clinical incidents, insufficient recording of residents' clinical changes, not providing accurate care plans, and communication processes failure. The study has provided indications that use of EHR provides small, yet significant advantages for RAC homes in Australia in managing risks for information management and in meeting accreditation requirements. The implication of the study for introducing technology innovation in RAC in

  1. Beam Extinction Monitoring in the Mu2e Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prebys, Eric [Fermilab; Bartoszek, Larry [Technicare; Gaponenko, Andrei [Fermilab; Kasper, Peter [Fermilab

    2015-06-01

    The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a muon to an electron in the field of an atomic nucleus with unprecedented sensitivity. The experiment requires a beam consisting of proton bunches approximately 200ns FW long, separated by 1.7 microseconds, with no out-of-time protons at the 10⁻¹⁰ fractional level. The verification of this level of extinction is very challenging. The proposed technique uses a special purpose spectrometer which will observe particles scattered from the production target of the experiment. The acceptance will be limited such that there will be no saturation effects from the in-time beam. The precise level and profile of the out-of-time beam can then be built up statistically, by integrating over many bunches.

  2. Compound stimulus extinction reduces spontaneous recovery in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Cesar A.O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design (“deepened extinction”) shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately paired with an electric shock. The target CS (CSA) was extinguished alone followed by compound presentations of the extinguished CSA and nonextinguished CSB. Recovery of conditioned skin conductance responses to CSA was reduced 24 h after compound extinction, as compared with a group who received an equal number of extinction trials to the CSA alone. PMID:26572649

  3. Mass Extinction in a Simple Mathematical Biological Model

    CERN Document Server

    Tokita, K; Tokita, Kei; Yasutomi, Ayumu

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the effect of extinction into the so-called replicator equations in mathematical biology, we construct a general model of ecosystems. The present model shows mass extinction by its own extinction dynamics when the system initially has a large number of species ( diversity). The extinction dynamics shows several significant features such as a power law in basin size distribution, induction time, etc. The present theory can be a mathematical foundation of the species-area effect in the paleontologic theory for mass extinction.

  4. Single-ended measurement of infrared extinction using lidar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, E R; Williams, M F; van der Laan, J E

    1978-01-15

    The goal of this study was to investigate the feasibility of single-ended measurement of the total extinction coefficient using an ir lidar system. Extinction was measured using a CO(2) laser radar system at four wavelengths near 10.3 microm. The measured results agree with theoretical estimates of extinction over a wide range. Single-ended measurements of extinction appear feasible to a horizontal range of 10 km using commercially available components. The system could potentially generate extinction data in a 3-D grid, enabling one to determine ir transmission between any two points in the field.

  5. About Electronic Components & Devices Business of Risk Management Audits%谈对电子元器件企业风险管理的审核

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙丽

    2011-01-01

    通过对电子元器件企业风险管理的审核,帮助企业认识风险管理的重要性,帮助企业做出合理的决策,取得成效。%Through electronic components devices business of risk management audits.Assist enterprise to understand the significance of risk management to help enterprises to make reasonable decision and achievements.

  6. Taste-immunosuppression engram: reinforcement and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Maj-Britt; Härting, Margarete; Kou, Wei; Del Rey, Adriana; Besedovsky, Hugo O; Schedlowski, Manfred; Pacheco-López, Gustavo

    2007-08-01

    Several Pavlovian conditioning paradigms have documented the brain's abilities to sense immune-derived signals or immune status, associate them with concurrently relevant extereoceptive stimuli, and reinstate such immune responses on demand. Specifically, the naturalistic relation of food ingestion with its possible immune consequences facilitates taste-immune associations. Here we demonstrate that the saccharin taste can be associated with the immunosuppressive agent cyclosporine A, and that such taste-immune associative learning is subject to reinforcement. Furthermore, once consolidated, this saccharin-immunosuppression engram is resistant to extinction when avoidance behavior is assessed. More importantly, the more this engram is activated, either at association or extinction phases, the more pronounced is the conditioned immunosuppression.

  7. The role of extraterrestrial phenomena in extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, D M

    1988-01-01

    In the several years since the Alvarez report of anomalously high iridium concentrations at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, evidence for the involvement of meteorite impacts in biological extinction has increased dramatically. Much more research will be needed, however, before meteorite impact is established as a general causal factor in extinction. Of ever greater long-term interest is the possibility that other extraterrestrial forces have had important influences on the evolution of life. To recognize the effects of such forces, it will be necessary to coordinate the research of astronomy and paleontology so that testable predictions can be formulated. It is possible that known, systematic changes in the Solar System or Galaxy have had effects on global biology and that these effects have been preserved in the paleontological record.

  8. Visuomotor links in awareness: evidence from extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, Raffaella; Genero, Rosanna; Colombatti, Simona; Zampieri, Daniela; Chatterjee, Anjan

    2005-05-31

    In patients with extinction, ipsilesional stimuli may abolish awareness of contralesional stimuli. Explanations of extinction often assume a serial model of processing in which sensory competition and identification precedes the selection of responses. We tested the adequacy of this assumption by examining the effects of response variables on visual awareness in six patients using signal detection analysis. Ipsilesional stimuli modulated patients' response criteria in deciding whether a contralesional stimulus was a target, and response modality (verbal or motor) modulated patients' abilities to discriminate between contralesional targets and distractors. This pattern of input variables modulating response criteria and output variables modulating discriminability indicates the extent to which attentional and intentional systems are tightly intertwined, with bi-directional effects in producing visual awareness.

  9. Cannabinoid facilitation of fear extinction memory recall in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinak, Christine A.; Angstadt, Mike; Sripada, Chandra S.; Abelson, James L.; Liberzon, Israel; Milad, Mohammed R.; Phan, K. Luan

    2012-01-01

    A first-line approach to treat anxiety disorders is exposure-based therapy, which relies on extinction processes such as repeatedly exposing the patient to stimuli (conditioned stimuli; CS) associated with the traumatic, fear-related memory. However, a significant number of patients fail to maintain their gains, partly attributed to the fact that this inhibitory learning and its maintenance is temporary and conditioned fear responses can return. Animal studies have shown that activation of the cannabinoid system during extinction learning enhances fear extinction and its retention. Specifically, CB1 receptor agonists, such as Δ9-tetrahydrocannibinol (THC), can facilitate extinction recall by preventing recovery of extinguished fear in rats. However, this phenomenon has not been investigated in humans. We conducted a study using a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, between-subjects design, coupling a standard Pavlovian fear extinction paradigm and simultaneous skin conductance response (SCR) recording with an acute pharmacological challenge with oral dronabinol (synthetic THC) or placebo (PBO) 2 hours prior to extinction learning in 29 healthy adult volunteers (THC = 14; PBO = 15) and tested extinction retention 24 hours after extinction learning. Compared to subjects that received PBO, subjects that received THC showed low SCR to a previously extinguished CS when extinction memory recall was tested 24 hours after extinction learning, suggesting that THC prevented the recovery of fear. These results provide the first evidence that pharmacological enhancement of extinction learning is feasible in humans using cannabinoid system modulators, which may thus warrant further development and clinical testing. PMID:22796109

  10. Simple models of evolution and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, M E J

    1999-01-01

    This article gives a brief introduction to the mathematical modeling of large-scale biological evolution and extinction. We give three examples of simple models in this field: the coevolutionary avalanche model of Bak and Sneppen, the environmental stress model of Newman, and the increasing fitness model of Sibani, Schmidt, and Alstrom. We describe the features of real evolution which these models are intended to explain and compare the results of simulations against data drawn from the fossil record.

  11. Clumpy cold dark matter and biological extinctions

    CERN Document Server

    Collar, J I

    1995-01-01

    Cosmological models with cosmic string and texture seeded universes predict a present abundance of very dense clumps of Cold Dark Matter particles. Their crossing through the solar system would induce a non-negligible amount of radiation damage to all living tissue; the severity of such an episode is assessed. The estimated frequency of these crossings agrees with the apparent periodicity of the paleontological record of biological extinctions. (Phys. Lett. B, in press)

  12. Effects of broken affordance on visual extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulff, Melanie; Humphreys, Glyn W

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that visual extinction can be reduced if two objects are positioned to "afford" an action. Here we tested if this affordance effect was disrupted by "breaking" the affordance, i.e., if one of the objects actively used in the action had a broken handle. We assessed the effects of broken affordance on recovery from extinction in eight patients with right hemisphere lesions and left-sided extinction. Patients viewed object pairs that were or were not commonly used together and that were positioned for left- or right-hand actions. In the unrelated pair conditions, either two tools or two objects were presented. In line with previous research (e.g., Riddoch et al., 2006), extinction was reduced when action-related object pairs and when unrelated tool pairs were presented compared to unrelated object pairs. There was no significant difference in recovery rate between action-related (object-tool) and unrelated tool pairs. In addition, performance with action-related objects decreased when the tool appeared on the ipsilesional side compared to when it was on the contralesional side, but only when the tool handle was intact. There were minimal effects of breaking the handle of an object rather than a tool, and there was no effect of breaking the handle on either tools or objects on single item trials. The data suggest that breaking the handle of a tool lessens the degree to which it captures attention, with this attentional capture being strongest when the tool appears on the ipsilesional side. The capture of attention by the ipsilesional item then reduces the chance of detecting the contralesional stimulus. This attentional capture effect is mediated by the affordance to the intact tool.

  13. Effects of broken affordance on visual extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie eWulff

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that visual extinction can be reduced if two objects are positioned to afford an action. Here we tested if this affordance effect was disrupted by breaking the affordance – if one of the objects actively used in the action had a broken handle. We assessed the effects of broken affordance on recovery from extinction in eight patients with right hemisphere lesions and left-sided extinction. Patients viewed object pairs that were or were not commonly used together and that were positioned for left- or right-hand actions. In the unrelated pair conditions, either two tools or two objects were presented. In line with previous research (e.g., Riddoch et al., 2006, extinction was reduced when action-related object pairs and when unrelated tool pairs were presented compared to unrelated object pairs. There was no significant difference in recovery rate between action-related (object-tool and unrelated tool-tool pairs. In addition, performance with action-related objects decreased when the tool appeared on the ipsilesional side compared to when it was on the contralesional side, but only when the tool handle was intact. There were minimal effects of breaking the handle of an object rather than a tool, and there was no effect of breaking the handle on either tools or objects on single item trials. The data suggest that breaking the handle of a tool lessens the degree to which it captures attention, with this attentional capture being strongest when the tool appears on the ipsilesional side. The capture of attention by the ipsilesional item then reduces the chance of detecting the contralesional stimulus. This attentional capture effect is mediated by the affordance to the intact tool.

  14. Opportunities and costs for preventing vertebrate extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Dalia A; Colchero, Fernando; Güneralp, Burak; Gusset, Markus; Skolnik, Ben; Parr, Michael; Byers, Onnie; Johnson, Kevin; Young, Glyn; Flesness, Nate; Possingham, Hugh; Fa, John E

    2015-03-16

    Despite an increase in policy and management responses to the global biodiversity crisis, implementation of the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets still shows insufficient progress [1]. These targets, strategic goals defined by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), address major causes of biodiversity loss in part by establishing protected areas (Target 11) and preventing species extinctions (Target 12). To achieve this, increased interventions will be required for a large number of sites and species. The Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) [2], a consortium of conservation-oriented organisations that aims to protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species restricted to single sites, has identified 920 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, conifers and reef-building corals in 588 'trigger' sites [3]. These are arguably the most irreplaceable category of important biodiversity conservation sites. Protected area coverage of AZE sites is a key indicator of progress towards Target 11 [1]. Moreover, effective conservation of AZE sites is essential to achieve Target 12, as the loss of any of these sites would certainly result in the global extinction of at least one species [2]. However, averting human-induced species extinctions within AZE sites requires enhanced planning tools to increase the chances of success [3]. Here, we assess the potential for ensuring the long-term conservation of AZE vertebrate species (157 mammals, 165 birds, 17 reptiles and 502 amphibians) by calculating a conservation opportunity index (COI) for each species. The COI encompasses a set of measurable indicators that quantify the possibility of achieving successful conservation of a species in its natural habitat (COIh) and by establishing insurance populations in zoos (COIc).

  15. Rewinding the process of mammalian extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Saragusty, J.; Diecke, S.; Drukker, M.; Durrant, B.; Friedrich Ben-Nun, I.; Galli, C; Goeritz, F.; Hayashi, K; Hermes, R.; Holtze, S.; Johnson, S.; Lazzari, G.; Loi, P; Loring, J. F.; Okita, K

    2016-01-01

    With only three living individuals left on this planet, the northern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) could be considered doomed for extinction. It might still be possible, however, to rescue the (sub)species by combining novel stem cell and assisted reproductive technologies. To discuss the various practical options available to us, we convened a multidisciplinary meeting under the name "Conservation by Cellular Technologies." The outcome of this meeting and the proposed road m...

  16. Dynamics of extinction debt across five taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halley, John M; Monokrousos, Nikolaos; Mazaris, Antonios D; Newmark, William D; Vokou, Despoina

    2016-07-25

    Species extinction following habitat loss is well documented. However, these extinctions do not happen immediately. The biodiversity surplus (extinction debt) declines with some delay through the process of relaxation. Estimating the time constants of relaxation, mainly the expected time to first extinction and the commonly used time for half the extinction debt to be paid off (half-life), is crucial for conservation purposes. Currently, there is no agreement on the rate of relaxation and the factors that it depends on. Here we find that half-life increases with area for all groups examined in a large meta-analysis of extinction data. A common pattern emerges if we use average number of individuals per species before habitat loss as an area index: for mammals, birds, reptiles and plants, the relationship has an exponent close to a half. We also find that the time to first determined extinction is short and increases slowly with area.

  17. Role of the hippocampus in contextual modulation of fear extinction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lingzhi Kong; Xihong Wu; Liang Li

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is an important form of emotional learning, and affects neural plasticity. Cue fear extinction is a classical form of inhibitory learning that can be used as an exposure-based treatment for phobia, because the long-term extinction memory produced during cue fear extinction can limit the over-expression of fear. The expression of this inhibitory memory partly depends on the context in which the extinction learning occurs. Studies such as transient inhibition, electrophysiology and brain imaging have proved that the hippocampus - an important structure in the limbic system - facilitates memory retrieval by contextual cues.Mediation of the hippocampus-medial prefrontal lobe circuit may be the neurobiological basis of this process.This article has reviewed the role of the hippocampus in the learning and retrieval of fear extinction.Contextual modulation of fear extinction may rely on a neural network consisting of the hippocampus, the medial prefrontal cortex and the amygdala.

  18. Extinction and dust properties in a clumpy medium

    CERN Document Server

    Scicluna, P

    2015-01-01

    (abridged) The dust content of the universe is primarily explored via its interaction with stellar photons, producing interstellar extinction. However, owing to the physical extension of the observing beam, observations may detect scattered photons, resulting in a change in the observed (or effective) extinction, depending on the spatial distribution of the dust and the resolution of the instrument. We investigate the influence of clumpy dust distributions on effective extinction toward embedded sources and those in the diffuse ISM. We use Monte Carlo radiative transfer to examine effective extinction for various geometries. By varying the number, optical depth and volume-filling factor of clumps in models of spherical shells and the diffuse ISM, we explore the evolution of extinction. Depending on the number of scattering events in the beam, the extinction curve steepens in homogeneous media and flattens in clumpy media. As a result, clumpy dust distributions can to reproduce extinction curves with arbitrary...

  19. Glucocorticoids enhance extinction-based psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Quervain, Dominique J-F; Bentz, Dorothée; Michael, Tanja; Bolt, Olivia C; Wiederhold, Brenda K; Margraf, Jürgen; Wilhelm, Frank H

    2011-04-19

    Behavioral exposure therapy of anxiety disorders is believed to rely on fear extinction. Because preclinical studies have shown that glucocorticoids can promote extinction processes, we aimed at investigating whether the administration of these hormones might be useful in enhancing exposure therapy. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 40 patients with specific phobia for heights were treated with three sessions of exposure therapy using virtual reality exposure to heights. Cortisol (20 mg) or placebo was administered orally 1 h before each of the treatment sessions. Subjects returned for a posttreatment assessment 3-5 d after the last treatment session and for a follow-up assessment after 1 mo. Adding cortisol to exposure therapy resulted in a significantly greater reduction in fear of heights as measured with the acrophobia questionnaire (AQ) both at posttreatment and at follow-up, compared with placebo. Furthermore, subjects receiving cortisol showed a significantly greater reduction in acute anxiety during virtual exposure to a phobic situation at posttreatment and a significantly smaller exposure-induced increase in skin conductance level at follow-up. The present findings indicate that the administration of cortisol can enhance extinction-based psychotherapy.

  20. Rewinding the process of mammalian extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saragusty, Joseph; Diecke, Sebastian; Drukker, Micha; Durrant, Barbara; Friedrich Ben-Nun, Inbar; Galli, Cesare; Göritz, Frank; Hayashi, Katsuhiko; Hermes, Robert; Holtze, Susanne; Johnson, Stacey; Lazzari, Giovanna; Loi, Pasqualino; Loring, Jeanne F; Okita, Keisuke; Renfree, Marilyn B; Seet, Steven; Voracek, Thomas; Stejskal, Jan; Ryder, Oliver A; Hildebrandt, Thomas B

    2016-07-01

    With only three living individuals left on this planet, the northern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) could be considered doomed for extinction. It might still be possible, however, to rescue the (sub)species by combining novel stem cell and assisted reproductive technologies. To discuss the various practical options available to us, we convened a multidisciplinary meeting under the name "Conservation by Cellular Technologies." The outcome of this meeting and the proposed road map that, if successfully implemented, would ultimately lead to a self-sustaining population of an extremely endangered species are outlined here. The ideas discussed here, while centered on the northern white rhinoceros, are equally applicable, after proper adjustments, to other mammals on the brink of extinction. Through implementation of these ideas we hope to establish the foundation for reversal of some of the effects of what has been termed the sixth mass extinction event in the history of Earth, and the first anthropogenic one. Zoo Biol. 35:280-292, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. Zoo Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Modelling dust extinction in the Magellanic Clouds

    CERN Document Server

    Zonca, Alberto; Mulas, Giacomo; Aresu, Giambattista; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare

    2015-01-01

    We model the extinction profiles observed in the Small and Large Magellanic clouds with a synthetic population of dust grains consisting by core-mantle particles and a collection of free-flying polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. All different flavors of the extinction curves observed in the Magellanic Clouds can be described by the present model, that has been previously (successfully) applied to a large sample of diffuse and translucent lines of sight in the Milky Way. We find that in the Magellanic Clouds the extinction produced by classic grains is generally larger than absorption by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Within this model, the non-linear far-UV rise is accounted for by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, whose presence in turn is always associated to a gap in the size distribution of classical particles. This hints either a physical connection between (e.g., a common cause for) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the absence of middle-sized dust particles, or the need for an additional component...

  2. Permo-Triassic vertebrate extinctions: A program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, E. C.

    1988-01-01

    Since the time of the Authors' study on this subject, a great deal of new information has become available. Concepts of the nature of extinctions have changed materially. The Authors' conclusion that a catastrophic event was not responsible for the extinction of vertebrates has modified to the extent that hypotheses involving either the impact of a massive extra-terrestrial body or volcanism provide plausible but not currently fully testable hypotheses. Stated changes resulted in a rapid decrease in organic diversity, as the ratio of origins of taxa to extinctions shifted from strongly positive to negative, with momentary equilibrium being reached at about the Permo-Triassic boundary. The proximate causes of the changes in the terrestrial biota appear to lie in two primary factors: (1) strong climatic changes (global mean temperatures, temperature ranges, humidity) and (2) susceptibility of the dominant vertebrates (large dicynodonts) and the glossopteris flora to disruption of the equlibrium of the world ecosystem. The following proximate causes have been proposed: (1) rhythmic fluctuations in solar radiation, (2) tectonic events as Pangea assembled, altering land-ocean relationships, patterns of wind and water circulation and continental physiography, (3) volcanism, and (4) changes subsequent to impacts of one or more massive extra terrestrial objects, bodies or comets. These hypotheses are discussed.

  3. Resurrecting extinct interactions with extant substitutes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Christine J; Hansen, Dennis M; Jones, Carl G; Zuël, Nicolas; Harris, Stephen

    2011-05-10

    There is increasing evidence that restoration ecologists should be most concerned with restoring species interactions rather than species diversity per se [1]. Rewilding with taxon substitutes, the intentional introduction of exotic species to replace the ecosystem functions of recently extinct species, is one way to reverse ecosystem dysfunction following the loss of species interactions [2]. This is highly controversial [3], in part because of a lack of rigorous scientific studies [4]. Here we present the first empirical evidence of an in situ rewilding project undertaken as a hypothesis-driven ecosystem management option. On Ile aux Aigrettes, a 25-hectare island off Mauritius, the critically endangered large-fruited endemic ebony, Diospyros egrettarum (Ebenaceae), was seed-dispersal limited after the extinction of all native large-bodied frugivores, including giant tortoises. We introduced exotic Aldabra giant tortoises, Aldabrachelys gigantea, to disperse the ebony seeds. Not only did the tortoises ingest the large fruits and disperse substantial numbers of ebony seeds, but tortoise gut passage also improved seed germination, leading to the widespread, successful establishment of new ebony seedlings. Our results demonstrate that the introduction of these exotic frugivores is aiding the recovery of ebonies. We argue for more reversible rewilding experiments to investigate whether extinct species interactions can be restored.

  4. Extinction of chained instrumental behaviors: Effects of procurement extinction on consumption responding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrailkill, Eric A; Bouton, Mark E

    2015-07-01

    Instrumental behavior often consists of sequences or chains of responses that minimally include procurement behaviors that enable subsequent consumption behaviors. In such chains, behavioral units are linked by access to one another and eventually to a primary reinforcer, such as food or a drug. The present experiments examined the effects of extinguishing procurement responding on consumption responding after training of a discriminated heterogeneous instrumental chain. Rats learned to make a procurement response (e.g., pressing a lever) in the presence of a distinctive discriminative stimulus; making that response led to the presentation of a second discriminative stimulus that set the occasion for a consumption response (e.g., pulling a chain), which then produced a food-pellet reinforcer. Experiment 1 showed that extinction of either the full procurement-consumption chain or procurement alone weakened the consumption response tested in isolation. Experiment 2 replicated the procurement extinction effect and further demonstrated that the opportunity to make the procurement response, as opposed to simple exposure to the procurement stimulus alone, was required. In Experiment 3, rats learned 2 distinct discriminated heterogeneous chains; extinction of 1 procurement response specifically weakened the consumption response that had been associated with it. The results suggest that learning to inhibit the procurement response may produce extinction of consumption responding through mediated extinction. The experiments suggest the importance of an associative analysis of instrumental behavior chains. (PsycINFO Database Record

  5. Dust properties along anomalous extinction sightlines. II. Studying extinction curves with dust models

    CERN Document Server

    Mazzei, Paola

    2010-01-01

    The large majority of extinction sight lines in our Galaxy obey a simple relation depending on one parameter, the total-to-selective extinction coefficient, Rv. Different values of Rv are able to match the whole extinction curve through different environments so characterizing normal extinction curves. In this paper more than sixty curves with large ultraviolet deviations from their best-fit one parameter curve are analyzed. These curves are fitted with dust models to shed light into the properties of the grains, the processes affecting them, and their relations with the environmental characteristics. The extinction curve models are reckoned by following recent prescriptions on grain size distributions able to describe one parameter curves for Rv values from 3.1 to 5.5. Such models, here extended down to Rv=2.0, allow us to compare the resulting properties of our deviating curves with the same as normal curves in a self-consistent framework, and thus to recover the relative trends overcoming the modeling unce...

  6. Levels and risk factors of antimony contamination in human hair from an electronic waste recycling area, Guiyu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yue; Ni, Wenqing; Chen, Yaowen; Wang, Xiaoling; Zhang, Jingwen; Wu, Kusheng

    2015-05-01

    The primitive electronic waste (e-waste) recycling has brought a series of environmental pollutants in Guiyu, China. Antimony is one of the important metal contaminants and has aroused the global concerns recently. We aimed to investigate concentrations of antimony in human hair from Guiyu and compared them with those from a control area where no e-waste recycling exists, and assessed the potential risk factors. A total of 205 human hair samples from Guiyu and 80 samples from Jinping were collected for analysis. All volunteers were asked to complete a questionnaire including socio-demographic characteristics and other possible factors related to hair antimony exposure. The concentrations of hair antimony were analyzed using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Our results indicated that the level of hair antimony in volunteers from Guiyu (median, 160.78; range, 6.99-4412.59 ng/g) was significantly higher than those from Jinping (median, 61.74; range, 2.98-628.43 ng/g). The residents who engaged in e-waste recycling activities in Guiyu had higher hair antimony concentrations than others (P < 0.001). There was no significant difference of hair antimony concentrations among different occupation types in e-waste recycling. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that hair antimony concentrations were associated with education level (β = -0.064), the time of residence in Guiyu (β = 0.112), living house also served as e-waste workshop (β = 0.099), the work related to e-waste (β = 0.169), and smoking (β = 0.018). The elevated hair antimony concentrations implied that the residents in Guiyu might be at high risk of antimony contamination, especially the e-waste recycling workers. Work related to e-waste recycling activities and long-time residence in Guiyu contributed to the high hair antimony exposure.

  7. Stress during puberty boosts metabolic activation associated with fear-extinction learning in hippocampus, basal amygdala and cingulate cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Rodriguez, Maria; Pitiot, Alain; Paus, Tomáš; Sandi, Carmen

    2012-07-01

    Adolescence is characterized by major developmental changes that may render the individual vulnerable to stress and the development of psychopathologies in a sex-specific manner. Earlier we reported lower anxiety-like behavior and higher risk-taking and novelty seeking in rats previously exposed to peri-pubertal stress. Here we studied whether peri-pubertal stress affected the acquisition and extinction of fear memories and/or the associated functional engagement of various brain regions, as assessed with 2-deoxyglucose. We showed that while peri-pubertal stress reduced freezing during the acquisition of fear memories (training) in both sexes, it had a sex-specific effect on extinction of these memories. Moreover hippocampus, basal amygdala and cingulate and motor cortices showed higher metabolic rates during extinction in rats exposed to peri-pubertal stress. Interestingly, activation of the infralimbic cortex was negatively correlated with freezing during extinction only in control males, while only males stressed during puberty showed a significant correlation between behavior during extinction and metabolic activation of hippocampus, amygdala and paraventricular nucleus. No correlations between brain activation and behavior during extinction were observed in females (control or stress). These results indicate that exposure to peri-pubertal stress affects behavior and brain metabolism when the individual is exposed to an additional stressful challenge. Some of these effects are sex-specific.

  8. The Prevalence and Marketing of Electronic Cigarettes in Proximity to At-Risk Youths: An Investigation of Point-of-Sale Practices near Alternative High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Stephen; Pike, James; Chapman, Jared; Xie, Bin; Hilton, Brian N.; Ames, Susan L.; Stacy, Alan W.

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the point-of-sale marketing practices used to promote electronic cigarettes at stores near schools that serve at-risk youths. One hundred stores selling tobacco products within a half-mile of alternative high schools in Southern California were assessed for this study. Seventy percent of stores in the sample sold electronic…

  9. Educational Electronic Books for Supporting Emergent Literacy of Kindergarteners At-Risk for Reading Difficulties--What Do We Know so Far?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamir, Adina; Korat, Ofra

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the authors' findings regarding the electronic book's (e-book's) support of emergent reading among kindergarten-aged children at-risk for reading difficulties. All the studies involved use of educational e-books specially designed by the authors to promote literacy among young children in the 5-6 age group. The review focuses…

  10. Educational Electronic Books for Supporting Emergent Literacy of Kindergarteners At-Risk for Reading Difficulties--What Do We Know so Far?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamir, Adina; Korat, Ofra

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the authors' findings regarding the electronic book's (e-book's) support of emergent reading among kindergarten-aged children at-risk for reading difficulties. All the studies involved use of educational e-books specially designed by the authors to promote literacy among young children in the 5-6 age group. The review focuses…

  11. The Prevalence and Marketing of Electronic Cigarettes in Proximity to At-Risk Youths: An Investigation of Point-of-Sale Practices near Alternative High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Stephen; Pike, James; Chapman, Jared; Xie, Bin; Hilton, Brian N.; Ames, Susan L.; Stacy, Alan W.

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the point-of-sale marketing practices used to promote electronic cigarettes at stores near schools that serve at-risk youths. One hundred stores selling tobacco products within a half-mile of alternative high schools in Southern California were assessed for this study. Seventy percent of stores in the sample sold electronic…

  12. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  13. Pre-Wisconsinan mammals from Jamaica and models of late Quaternary extinction in the greater Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, R. D. E.; Ford, Derek C.; McFarlane, Donald A.

    1989-01-01

    The vertebrate fauna recovered from indurated conglomerates at Wallingford Roadside Cave (central Jamaica) is shown to be in excess of 100,000 yr old according to uranium series and electron spin resonance dating. The Wallingford local fauna is therefore pre-Wisconsinan in age, and Roadside Cave is now the oldest radiometrically dated locality in the West Indies containing identifiable species of land mammals. In the absence of a good radiometric record for Quaternary paleontological sites in the Caribbean, there is no satisfactory basis for determining whether most extinct Antillean mammals died out in a "blitzkrieg"-like event immediately following initial human colonization in the mid-Holocene. Fossils of Clidomys (Heptaxodontidae, Caviomorpha), the giant Wallingford rodent, have never been found in situ in sediments of demonstrably Holocene age, and its extinction may antedate the middle Holocene. This is also a possibility for the primate Xenothrix mcgregori, although its remains have been found in loose cave earth. A major, climate-driven bout of terrestrial vertebrate extinction at about 14,000-12,000 yr B.P. has been hypothesized for the West Indies by G. Pregill and S. L. Olson ( Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics12, 75-98, 1981), but at present there is nothing to connect the disappearance of Clidomys with this event either. Quaternary extinctions in the Caribbean may prove to be of critical significance for evaluating the reality of New World blitzkrieg, but not until an effort is mounted to constrain them rigorously using modern radiometric approaches.

  14. 电子货币风险的模糊综合测度与评价%The Fuzzy Comprehensive Measurement and Evaluation of Electronic Currency Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨芳

    2014-01-01

    随着科学技术日新月异的发展,电子货币越来越深入到经济生活的各个领域。电子货币方便了人们的经济生活,同时也伴随着多种风险。本文在分析电子货币风险的基础上采用模糊综合评价法对其进行测度及评价。%With the rapid development of science and technology, electronic money more and more deeply affects all areas of economic life.Electronic money is easy for people in economic life,but also accompanied by a variety of risks.Based on the analysis of electronic currency risk on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to measure and evaluate.

  15. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody Steven; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high...

  16. Extinction risk assessment of the world’s seagrass species

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Short, F.T.; Polidoro, B.; Livingstone, S.R.; Carpenter, K.E.; Bandeira, S.; Bujang, J.S.; Calumpong, H.P.; Carruthers, T.J.B.; Coles, R.G.; Dennison, W.C.; Erftemeijer, P.L.A.; Fortes, M.D.; Freeman, A.S.; Jagtap, T.G.; Kamal, A.H.M.; Kendrick, G.A.; Kenworthy, W.J.; LaNafie, Y.A.; Nasution, I.M.; Orth, R.J.; Prathep, A.; Sanciangco, J.C.; Tussenbroek, B.V.; Vergara, S.G.; Waycott, M.; Zieman, J.C.

    loss and degradation of seagrass biodiversity will have serious repercussions for marine biodiversity and the human populations that depend upon the resources and ecosystem services that seagrasses provide....

  17. Cortisol modifies extinction learning of recently acquired fear in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Christian Josef; Hermann, Andrea; Stark, Rudolf; Wolf, Oliver Tobias

    2014-09-01

    Exposure therapy builds on the mechanism of fear extinction leading to decreased fear responses. How the stress hormone cortisol affects brain regions involved in fear extinction in humans is unknown. For this reason, we tested 32 men randomly assigned to receive either 30 mg hydrocortisone or placebo 45 min before fear extinction. In fear acquisition, a picture of a geometrical figure was either partially paired (conditioned stimulus; CS+) or not paired (CS-) with an electrical stimulation (unconditioned stimulus; UCS). In fear extinction, each CS was presented again, but no UCS occurred. Cortisol increased conditioned skin conductance responses in early and late extinction. In early extinction, higher activation towards the CS- than to the CS+ was found in the amygdala, hippocampus and posterior parahippocampal gyrus. This pattern might be associated with the establishment of a new memory trace. In late extinction, the placebo compared with the cortisol group displayed enhanced CS+/CS- differentiation in the amygdala, medial frontal cortex and nucleus accumbens. A change from early deactivation to late activation of the extinction circuit as seen in the placebo group seems to be needed to enhance extinction and to reduce fear. Cortisol appears to interfere with this process thereby impairing extinction of recently acquired conditioned fear.

  18. A window of vulnerability: impaired fear extinction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kathryn D; Den, Miriam L; Graham, Bronwyn M; Richardson, Rick

    2014-09-01

    There have been significant advances made towards understanding the processes mediating extinction of learned fear. However, despite being of clear theoretical and clinical significance, very few studies have examined fear extinction in adolescence, which is often described as a developmental window of vulnerability to psychological disorders. This paper reviews the relatively small body of research examining fear extinction in adolescence. A prominent finding of this work is that adolescents, both humans and rodents, exhibit a marked impairment in extinction relative to both younger (e.g., juvenile) and older (e.g., adult) groups. We then review some potential mechanisms that could produce the striking extinction deficit observed in adolescence. For example, one neurobiological candidate mechanism for impaired extinction in adolescence involves changes in the functional connectivity within the fear extinction circuit, particularly between prefrontal cortical regions and the amygdala. In addition, we review research on emotion regulation and attention processes that suggests that developmental changes in attention bias to threatening cues may be a cognitive mechanism that mediates age-related differences in extinction learning. We also examine how a differential reaction to chronic stress in adolescence impacts upon extinction retention during adolescence as well as in later life. Finally, we consider the findings of several studies illustrating promising approaches that overcome the typically-observed extinction impairments in adolescent rodents and that could be translated to human adolescents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cortisol modifies extinction learning of recently acquired fear in men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Andrea; Stark, Rudolf; Wolf, Oliver Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Exposure therapy builds on the mechanism of fear extinction leading to decreased fear responses. How the stress hormone cortisol affects brain regions involved in fear extinction in humans is unknown. For this reason, we tested 32 men randomly assigned to receive either 30 mg hydrocortisone or placebo 45 min before fear extinction. In fear acquisition, a picture of a geometrical figure was either partially paired (conditioned stimulus; CS+) or not paired (CS−) with an electrical stimulation (unconditioned stimulus; UCS). In fear extinction, each CS was presented again, but no UCS occurred. Cortisol increased conditioned skin conductance responses in early and late extinction. In early extinction, higher activation towards the CS− than to the CS+ was found in the amygdala, hippocampus and posterior parahippocampal gyrus. This pattern might be associated with the establishment of a new memory trace. In late extinction, the placebo compared with the cortisol group displayed enhanced CS+/CS− differentiation in the amygdala, medial frontal cortex and nucleus accumbens. A change from early deactivation to late activation of the extinction circuit as seen in the placebo group seems to be needed to enhance extinction and to reduce fear. Cortisol appears to interfere with this process thereby impairing extinction of recently acquired conditioned fear. PMID:23945999

  20. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navjot S Sodhi

    Full Text Available Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545 or had increased (n = 28. These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  1. Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

    2015-10-01

    The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives.

  2. Mass extinction efficiency and extinction hygroscopicity of ambient PM2.5 in urban China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhen; Ma, Xin; He, Yujie; Jiang, Jingkun; Wang, Xiaoliang; Wang, Yungang; Sheng, Li; Hu, Jiangkai; Yan, Naiqiang

    2017-07-01

    The ambient PM2.5 pollution problem in China has drawn substantial international attentions. The mass extinction efficiency (MEE) and hygroscopicity factor (f(RH)) of PM2.5 can be readily applied to study the impacts on atmospheric visibility and climate. The few previous investigations in China only reported results from pilot studies and are lack of spatial representativeness. In this study, hourly average ambient PM2.5 mass concentration, relative humidity, and atmospheric visibility data from China national air quality and meteorological monitoring networks were retrieved and analyzed. It includes 24 major Chinese cities from nine city-clusters with the period of October 2013 to September 2014. Annual average extinction coefficient in urban China was 759.3±258.3Mm(-1), mainly caused by dry PM2.5 (305.8.2±131.0Mm(-1)) and its hygroscopicity (414.6±188.1Mm(-1)). High extinction coefficient values were resulted from both high ambient PM2.5 concentration (68.5±21.7µg/m(3)) and high relative humidity (69.7±8.6%). The PM2.5 mass extinction efficiency varied from 2.87 to 6.64m(2)/g with an average of 4.40±0.84m(2)/g. The average extinction hygroscopic factor f(RH=80%) was 2.63±0.45. The levels of PM2.5 mass extinction efficiency and hygroscopic factor in China were in comparable range with those found in developed countries in spite of the significant diversities among all 24 cities. Our findings help to establish quantitative relationship between ambient extinction coefficient (visual range) and PM2.5 & relative humidity. It will reduce the uncertainty of extinction coefficient estimation of ambient PM2.5 in urban China which is essential for the research of haze pollution and climate radiative forcing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Representing and Retrieving Patients' Falls Risk Factors and Risk for Falls among Adults in Acute Care through the Electronic Health Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, Jann

    2013-01-01

    Defining fall risk factors and predicting fall risk status among patients in acute care has been a topic of research for decades. With increasing pressure on hospitals to provide quality care and prevent hospital-acquired conditions, the search for effective fall prevention interventions continues. Hundreds of risk factors for falls in acute care…

  4. Representing and Retrieving Patients' Falls Risk Factors and Risk for Falls among Adults in Acute Care through the Electronic Health Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, Jann

    2013-01-01

    Defining fall risk factors and predicting fall risk status among patients in acute care has been a topic of research for decades. With increasing pressure on hospitals to provide quality care and prevent hospital-acquired conditions, the search for effective fall prevention interventions continues. Hundreds of risk factors for falls in acute care…

  5. Fear extinction, persistent disruptive behavior and psychopathic traits: fMRI in late adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Moran D; van Lith, Koen; Kindt, Merel; Pape, Louise E; Doreleijers, Theo A H; van den Brink, Wim; Veltman, Dick J; Popma, Arne

    2016-07-01

    Children diagnosed with a Disruptive Behavior Disorder (DBD, i.e. Oppositional Defiant Disorder or Conduct Disorder), especially those with psychopathic traits, are at risk of developing persistent and severe antisocial behavior. Reduced fear conditioning has been proposed to underlie persistent antisocial development. However, we have recently shown that both DBD persisters and desisters are characterized by increased fear conditioning compared with healthy controls (HCs). In this study, we investigated whether brain function during fear extinction is associated with DBD subgroup-membership and psychopathic traits. Adolescents from a childhood arrestee cohort (mean age 17.6 years, s.d. 1.4) who met criteria for a DBD diagnosis during previous assessments were re-assessed and categorized as persistent DBD (n = 25) or desistent DBD (n = 25). Functional MRI during the extinction phase of a classical fear-conditioning task was used to compare regional brain function between these subgroups and 25 matched controls. Both DBD persisters and desisters showed hyperreactivity during fear extinction, when compared with HCs. Impulsive-irresponsible psychopathic traits were positively associated with responses in the fear neurocircuitry and mediated the association between neural activation and group membership. These results suggest that fear acquisition and fear extinction deficits may provide an endophenotype for an emotionally hyperreactive subtype of antisocial development.

  6. Mutation Induced Extinction in Finite Populations: Lethal Mutagenesis and Lethal Isolation

    OpenAIRE

    C Scott Wylie; Shakhnovich, Eugene I.

    2012-01-01

    Reproduction is inherently risky, in part because genomic replication can introduce new mutations that are usually deleterious toward fitness. This risk is especially severe for organisms whose genomes replicate “semi-conservatively,” e.g. viruses and bacteria, where no master copy of the genome is preserved. Lethal mutagenesis refers to extinction of populations due to an unbearably high mutation rate (U), and is important both theoretically and clinically, where drugs can extinguish pathoge...

  7. Ecological specialization and population size in a biodiversity hotspot: How rare species avoid extinction

    OpenAIRE

    S. E. Williams; Y. M. Williams; Vanderwal, J.; Isaac, J. L.; L. P. Shoo; Johnson, C. N.

    2009-01-01

    Species with narrow environmental niches typically have small geographic ranges. Small range size is, in turn, often associated with low local abundance. Together, these factors should mean that ecological specialists have very small total populations, putting them at high risk of extinction. But some specialized and geographically restricted species are ancient, and some ecological communities have high proportions of rare and specialized endemics. We studied niche characteristics and patter...

  8. Late Pennsylvanian climate changes and palynomorph extinctions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kosanke, R.M.; Cecil, C.B. [US Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States)

    1996-01-01

    A major floral change occurs in the Upper Pennsylvanian strata in the Midcontinent, Illinois basin, and in the northern Appalachian basin of eastern United States. Lycospora spp. (derived from arborescent lycopsids) became extinct along with some other palynomorph taxa. This investigation is concerned with the importance of this major floral change. Samples were studied from western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and West Virgina (from a previous study) cover the stratigraphic interval from the Upper Freeport coal bed, uppermost part of the Allegheny Formation, to the Mahoning, Mason, Brush Creek, Wilgus, and Anderson coal beds in the lower part of the Conemaugh Formation. The floral change occurs either at or below the accepted Desmoinesian-Missourian boundary in the Midcontinent and Illinois basin, whereas in the northern Appalachians this change occurs in the lower part of the Conemaugh Formation, between the Mahoning and Brush Creek coal beds, or when the Mason is present, between the Mahoning and Mason coal beds. The first coal bed above the extinction of Lycospora spp. is dominated by the palynomorph taxon Endosporites globiformis which is derived from a heterosporous, herbaceous lycopsid. However, Sigillaria, another arborescent lycopsid, did not become extinct at this time as evidenced by the presence of the palynomorph genus Crassispora which is derived from Sigillaria. The reason for the survival of Sigillaria is now known, but it may have been able to adapt, in a limited fashion, to some sort of specialized microenvironment. The ferns, based on palynomorph occurrence, become numerically more important throughout the balance of the Conemaugh Formation, and dominate the Pittsburgh No. 8 and Pomeroy coal beds in the overlying Monogahela Formation.

  9. Colloquium paper: are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wake, David B; Vredenburg, Vance T

    2008-08-12

    Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians--frogs, salamanders, and caecilians--may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction.

  10. Self-Organized Criticality and Mass Extinction in Evolutionary Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krink, Thiemo; Thomsen, Rene

    2001-01-01

    niches after mass extinction events. Furthermore, paleontological studies have shown that there is a power law relationship between the frequency of species extinction events and the sue of the extinction impact. Power law relationships of this kind are typical for complex systems, which operate...... at a critical state between chaos and order, known as self-organized criticality (SOC). Based on this background, we used SOC to control the size of spatial extinction zones in a diffusion model. The SOC selection process was easy to implement and implied only negligible computational costs. Our results show...... that the SOC spatial extinction model clearly outperforms simple evolutionary algorithms (EAs) and the difffision model (CGA). Further, our results support the biological hypothesis that mass extinctions might play an important role in evolution. However, the success of simple EAs indicates that evolution...

  11. [GABA-Receptors in Modulation of Fear Memory Extinction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovina, N I

    2016-01-01

    GABA is the major inhibitory neurotransmitter in the central nervous system determining the efficacy of neuronal interaction. GABA-receptors play a key role in different aspects of fear memory--acquisition and consolidation, retention, reconsolidation and extinction. Extinction is an important behavioural phenomenon which allows organism to adapt its behavior to a changing environment. Extinction of fear memory is a form of new inhibitory learning which interferes with expression of the initial acquired fear conditioning. Resistance to extinction is symptom of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. The aim of the present review was to summarize own and literary data about GABAergic modulation of fear extinction and pharmacological correction of extinction impairment at influences on GABA(A)- and GABA(B)- receptors.

  12. Late Devonian red tide and mass extinction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Molecular stratigraphical, carbonate carbon isotopic, stratigraphical and paleontological data show that algal booming, eutrophication, anoxia, hypersalinity, positive ( 13C excursion and biomass decreasing occurred in the offshore carbonate environments of the Frasnian-Famennian (F-F) transition, which hints that red tide might frequently take place in the F-F transition of Guangxi, South China. We suggest that the mass extinction of the reef ecosystems and the shallow-water marine organisms in the F-F transition of the lower-middle latitudes may be related to the frequent occurrence of red tide in that time.

  13. Mass Extinctions and a Dark Disk

    CERN Document Server

    Kramer, Eric David

    2016-01-01

    We consider whether the observed periodicity of mass extinctions and of comet impacts on Earth is consistent with Solar oscillation about the Galactic midplane and spiral arm crossings. It is of further interest to determine whether a hypothetical thin dark disk is necessary to give the right periodicity, and whether such a dark disk is allowed given kinematic and other observational constaints on the Galaxy's gravitational potential. We show that a dark disk consistent with recent bounds, combined with data for spiral arm crossing, can lead to the required periodicity. Moreover, we find that the best fit values correctly predict the date of the Chicxulub crater dated to 66 My ago.

  14. Extinct 244Pu in Ancient Zircons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Grenville; Harrison, T. Mark; Holland, Greg; Mojzsis, Stephen J.; Gilmour, Jamie

    2004-10-01

    We have found evidence, in the form of fissiogenic xenon isotopes, for in situ decay of 244Pu in individual 4.1- to 4.2-billion-year-old zircons from the Jack Hills region of Western Australia. Because of its short half-life, 82 million years, 244Pu was extinct within 600 million years of Earth's formation. Detrital zircons are the only known relics to have survived from this period, and a study of their Pu geochemistry will allow us to date ancient metamorphic events and determine the terrestrial Pu/U ratio for comparison with the solar ratio.

  15. Gray Extinction in the Orion Trapezium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krełowski, J.; Galazutdinov, G. A.; Strobel, A.; Mulas, G.

    2016-12-01

    We estimated distances to several Orion Trapezium stars using our CaII-method and confirm the distance recommended by Menten et al. However, we found that in the case of HD 37020 both individual distances (based on the trigonometric VLBI parallax and/or CaII-method) differ from the spectrophotometric distance by a factor of 2.5. We interpret this fact as a result of presence of gray (neutral) extinction of about 1.8 mag in front of this star. The correctness of the applied spectral type/ luminosity class, Sp/L, (based on new original spectra from HARPS-N) and measurements of color indices is discussed.

  16. Predicting impaired extinction of traumatic memory and elevated startle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Nalloor

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Emotionally traumatic experiences can lead to debilitating anxiety disorders, such as phobias and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD. Exposure to such experiences, however, is not sufficient to induce pathology, as only up to one quarter of people exposed to such events develop PTSD. These statistics, combined with findings that smaller hippocampal size prior to the trauma is associated with higher risk of developing PTSD, suggest that there are pre-disposing factors for such pathology. Because prospective studies in humans are limited and costly, investigating such pre-dispositions, and thus advancing understanding of the genesis of such pathologies, requires the use of animal models where predispositions are identified before the emotional trauma. Most existing animal models are retrospective: they classify subjects as those with or without a PTSD-like phenotype long after experiencing a traumatic event. Attempts to create prospective animal models have been largely unsuccessful. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we report that individual predispositions to a PTSD-like phenotype, consisting of impaired rate and magnitude of extinction of an emotionally traumatic event coupled with long-lasting elevation of acoustic startle responses, can be revealed following exposure to a mild stressor, but before experiencing emotional trauma. We compare, in rats, the utility of several classification criteria and report that a combination of criteria based on acoustic startle responses and behavior in an anxiogenic environment is a reliable predictor of a PTSD-like phenotype. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There are individual predispositions to developing impaired extinction and elevated acoustic startle that can be identified after exposure to a mildly stressful event, which by itself does not induce such a behavioral phenotype. The model presented here is a valuable tool for studying the etiology and pathophysiology of anxiety disorders and

  17. Compound stimulus extinction reduces spontaneous recovery in humans

    OpenAIRE

    Coelho, Cesar A.O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design (“deepened extinction”) shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately paired with an electric shock. The target CS (CSA) was extinguished alone followed by compound presentations of the extinguished CSA and nonextinguished CSB. Reco...

  18. Extinction and dust properties in a clumpy medium

    OpenAIRE

    Scicluna, P.; Siebenmorgen, R.

    2015-01-01

    (abridged) The dust content of the universe is primarily explored via its interaction with stellar photons, producing interstellar extinction. However, owing to the physical extension of the observing beam, observations may detect scattered photons, resulting in a change in the observed (or effective) extinction, depending on the spatial distribution of the dust and the resolution of the instrument. We investigate the influence of clumpy dust distributions on effective extinction toward embed...

  19. Experience with Dynamic Reinforcement Rates Decreases Resistance to Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Craig, Andrew R.; Shahan, Timothy A

    2016-01-01

    The ability of organisms to detect reinforcer-rate changes in choice preparations is positively related to two factors: the magnitude of the change in rate and the frequency with which rates change. Gallistel (2012) suggested similar rate-detection processes are responsible for decreases in responding during operant extinction. Although effects of magnitude of change in reinforcer rate on resistance to extinction are well known (e.g., the partial-reinforcement-extinction effect), effects of f...

  20. The Effect of Size and Ecology on Extinction Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, C.; Yuan, A.; Heim, N.; Payne, J.

    2015-12-01

    Although life on Earth first emerged as prokaryotic organisms, it eventually evolved into billions of different species. However, extinctions on Earth, especially the five mass extinctions, have decimated species. So what leads to a species survival or demise during a mass extinction? Are certain species more susceptible to extinctions based on their size and ecology? For this project, we focused on the data of marine animals. To examine the impact of size and ecology on a species's likelihood of survival, we compared the sizes and ecologies of the survivors and victims of the five mass extinctions. The ecology, or life mode, of a genus consists of the combination of tiering, motility, and feeding mechanism. Tiering refers to the animal's typical location in the water column and sediments, motility refers to its ability to move, and feeding mechanism describes the way the organism eats; together, they describe the animal's behavior. We analyzed the effect of ecology on survival using logistic regression, which compares life mode to the success or failure of a genus during each mass extinction interval. For organism size, we found the extinct organisms' mean size (both volume and length) and compared it with the average size of survivors on a graph. Our results show that while surviving genera of mass extinctions tended to be slightly larger than those that went extinct, there was no significant difference. Even though the Permian (Changhsingian) and Triassic (Rhaetian) extinctions had larger surviving species, likewise the difference was small. Ecology had a more obvious impact on the likelihood of survival; fast-moving, predatory pelagic organisms were the most likely to go extinct, while sedentary, infaunal suspension feeders had the greatest chances of survival. Overall, ecology played a greater role than size in determining the survival of a species. With this information, we can use ecology to predict which species would survive future extinctions.

  1. Evaluating the presence versus absence of the reinforcer during extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Mariana I; Borrero, John C; Mendres-Smith, Amber E

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of extinction when the reinforcer was present versus absent. These effects were examined with 2 human operant procedures (i.e., a computer program and a mechanical apparatus) with college students as participants. Discriminable properties of the apparatus appeared to influence responding during extinction. In general, responding during extinction was less likely with the mechanical apparatus when the reinforcer was absent and more likely with the computer program.

  2. Extinction in the Galaxy from surface brightnesses of ESO-LV galaxies : Testing "standard" extinction maps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choloniewski, J.; Valentijn, E. A.

    2003-01-01

    A new method for the determination of the extinction in the Galaxy is proposed. The method uses surface brightnesses of external galaxies in the B and R-bands. The observational data have been taken from the ESO-LV galaxy catalog. As a first application of our model we derive the ratio of R-band to

  3. Requirement for BDNF in the reconsolidation of fear extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radiske, Andressa; Rossato, Janine I; Köhler, Cristiano A; Gonzalez, Maria Carolina; Medina, Jorge H; Cammarota, Martín

    2015-04-22

    Therapies based on the impairment of reconsolidation or the enhancement of extinction offer the possibility of decreasing the persistent recollection of distressing memories. However, the direct interplay between reconsolidation and extinction has rarely been considered. Previously, we reported that reactivation induces reconsolidation of fear extinction memory. Here, using a step-down inhibitory avoidance learning paradigm in rats, we show that intrahippocampus infusion of function-blocking anti-BDNF antibody immediately or 6 h after extinction memory reactivation impairs the reconsolidation of extinction. Extinction memory reactivation increases proBDNF, BDNF, and tropomyosin receptor kinase B (TrkB) phosphorylation levels in dorsal CA1, while blocking BDNF maturation in the hippocampus with plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 hinders the persistence of extinction and induces the recurrence of fear. Moreover, coinfusion of recombinant BDNF (0.25 μg/side) after extinction memory reactivation impedes the recovery of the avoidance response induced by inhibiting gene expression and protein synthesis in the dorsal hippocampus. Our findings unravel a new role for BDNF, suggesting that this neurotrophin is necessary and sufficient to maintain the reactivated fear extinction engram.

  4. Extinction of Learned Fear Induces Hippocampal Place Cell Remapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Melissa E; Yuan, Robin K; Keinath, Alexander T; Ramos Álvarez, Manuel M; Muzzio, Isabel A

    2015-06-17

    The extinction of learned fear is a hippocampus-dependent process thought to embody new learning rather than erasure of the original fear memory, although it is unknown how these competing contextual memories are represented in the hippocampus. We previously demonstrated that contextual fear conditioning results in hippocampal place cell remapping and long-term stabilization of novel representations. Here we report that extinction learning also induces place cell remapping in C57BL/6 mice. Specifically, we observed cells that preferentially remapped during different stages of learning. While some cells remapped in both fear conditioning and extinction, others responded predominantly during extinction, which may serve to modify previous representations as well as encode new safe associations. Additionally, we found cells that remapped primarily during fear conditioning, which could facilitate reacquisition of the original fear association. Moreover, we also observed cells that were stable throughout learning, which may serve to encode the static aspects of the environment. The short-term remapping observed during extinction was not found in animals that did not undergo fear conditioning, or when extinction was conducted outside of the conditioning context. Finally, conditioning and extinction produced an increase in spike phase locking to the theta and gamma frequencies. However, the degree of remapping seen during conditioning and extinction only correlated with gamma synchronization. Our results suggest that the extinction learning is a complex process that involves both modification of pre-existing memories and formation of new ones, and these traces coexist within the same hippocampal representation.

  5. Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, Raymond B; Ward, Peter D

    2005-04-15

    A catastrophic extinction occurred at the end of the Permian Period. However, baseline extinction rates appear to have been elevated even before the final catastrophe, suggesting sustained environmental degradation. For terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Permian, the combination of a drop in atmospheric oxygen plus climate warming would have induced hypoxic stress and consequently compressed altitudinal ranges to near sea level. Our simulations suggest that the magnitude of altitudinal compression would have forced extinctions by reducing habitat diversity, fragmenting and isolating populations, and inducing a species-area effect. It also might have delayed ecosystem recovery after the mass extinction.

  6. Experience with dynamic reinforcement rates decreases resistance to extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Andrew R; Shahan, Timothy A

    2016-03-01

    The ability of organisms to detect reinforcer-rate changes in choice preparations is positively related to two factors: the magnitude of the change in rate and the frequency with which rates change. Gallistel (2012) suggested similar rate-detection processes are responsible for decreases in responding during operant extinction. Although effects of magnitude of change in reinforcer rate on resistance to extinction are well known (e.g., the partial-reinforcement-extinction effect), effects of frequency of changes in rate prior to extinction are unknown. Thus, the present experiments examined whether frequency of changes in baseline reinforcer rates impacts resistance to extinction. Pigeons pecked keys for variable-interval food under conditions where reinforcer rates were stable and where they changed within and between sessions. Overall reinforcer rates between conditions were controlled. In Experiment 1, resistance to extinction was lower following exposure to dynamic reinforcement schedules than to static schedules. Experiment 2 showed that resistance to presession feeding, a disruptor that should not involve change-detection processes, was unaffected by baseline-schedule dynamics. These findings are consistent with the suggestion that change detection contributes to extinction. We discuss implications of change-detection processes for extinction of simple and discriminated operant behavior and relate these processes to the behavioral-momentum based approach to understanding extinction.

  7. Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, Anthony D; Matzke, Nicholas; Tomiya, Susumu; Wogan, Guinevere O U; Swartz, Brian; Quental, Tiago B; Marshall, Charles; McGuire, Jenny L; Lindsey, Emily L; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Mersey, Ben; Ferrer, Elizabeth A

    2011-03-03

    Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.

  8. Research on hospital electronic medical record risk management%医院电子病案风险管理研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    褚秋琦

    2011-01-01

    By interview with medical staff, questionnaire and general research methods, risks of hospital electronic medical record in law, safe and integrity were analyzed. Suggestions such as improving law and regulation system, strengthening legal risk concept, strengthening software, hardware and internet safety control, electronic medical record edition right and password safety control, electronic medical record content and sign safety control, establishing electronic medical record process quality test system, eliminating fragmentary medical record from headstream, establishing strict reward-punishment mechanism and electronic medical record standardization control are presented to improve electronic medical record risk management.%通过对某医院医务工作者的访谈、问卷调查和综合研究等方法,分析当前医院电子病案风险管理的必要性及面临的法律性、安全性、完整性等各种风险,并提出完善现有法律法规、增强法律风险意识、做好软硬件及网络技术安全控制、电子病案书写权限及密码安全控制、电子病案内容及签名的安全控制、建立电子病案环节质量检查制度、堵塞残缺病案的源头、建立严格的奖惩制度、电子病案标准化控制等相应的对策,以促进医院电子病案风险管理水平不断提高.

  9. Science observed: The mass-extinction debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, W.

    1994-01-01

    The upheaval triggered in 1980 by the Alvarez-Berkeley group impact hypothesis transformed the literature of mass extinctions from an unfocused, sporadic collection of papers that virtually ignored extraterrestrial causes and treated endogenous ones only sparingly better to an integrated, diverse body of literature. Research programs organized seemingly overnight spawned collaborative teams whose members, often from distant, isolated disciplines, redirected their careers in order to address the captivating, high-stakes issues. The initial, generally skeptical, cool reception of the impact hypothesis might have been predicted for any of a number of reasons: such an instantaneous catastrophe contravened earth science's reigning philosophy of uniformitarianism; it was formulated from a form of evidence - siderophile element anomalies - alien to the community charged with its appraisal; it advanced a causal mechanism that was improbable in terms of canonical knowledge; and it was proffered mainly by specialists alien to earth and biological science, especially paleobiology. Early on it became clear that irrespective of which causal hypothesis was chosen, the chosen one would be the strongest predictor of how the chooser would select and apply standards in assessing evidence bearing on all such hypothesis. Less strong correlation also appeared between disciplinary speciality and the assessment of evidence. Such correlations varied with the level of specialization; the most robust correlations appeared in the broadest areas of science practice. The gestalt (mindset) seemingly engendered by the embrace of an extinction hypothesis overrode, or was stronger than, the intellectual predispositions attributable to disciplinary specialty.

  10. Critical Multitype Branching Systems: Extinction Results

    CERN Document Server

    Kevei, Peter

    2011-01-01

    We consider a critical branching particle system in $\\R^d$, composed of individuals of a finite number of types $i\\in\\{1,...,K\\}$. Each individual of type $i$ moves independently according to a symmetric $\\alpha_i$-stable motion. We assume that the particle lifetimes and offspring distributions are type-dependent. Under the usual independence assumptions in branching systems, we prove extinction theorems in the following cases: (1) all the particle lifetimes have finite mean, or (2) there is a type whose lifetime distribution has heavy tail, and the other lifetimes have finite mean. We get a more complex dynamics by assuming in case (2) that the most mobile particle type corresponds to a finite-mean lifetime: in this case, local extinction of the population is determined by an interaction of the parameters (offspring variability, mobility, longevity) of the long-living type and those of the most mobile type. The proofs are based on a precise analysis of the occupation times of a related Markov renewal process...

  11. Patterns of species ranges, speciation, and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birand, Aysegul; Vose, Aaron; Gavrilets, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    The exact nature of the relationship among species range sizes, speciation, and extinction events is not well understood. The factors that promote larger ranges, such as broad niche widths and high dispersal abilities, could increase the likelihood of encountering new habitats but also prevent local adaptation due to high gene flow. Similarly, low dispersal abilities or narrower niche widths could cause populations to be isolated, but such populations may lack advantageous mutations due to low population sizes. Here we present a large-scale, spatially explicit, individual-based model addressing the relationships between species ranges, speciation, and extinction. We followed the evolutionary dynamics of hundreds of thousands of diploid individuals for 200,000 generations. Individuals adapted to multiple resources and formed ecological species in a multidimensional trait space. These species varied in niche widths, and we observed the coexistence of generalists and specialists on a few resources. Our model shows that species ranges correlate with dispersal abilities but do not change with the strength of fitness trade-offs; however, high dispersal abilities and low resource utilization costs, which favored broad niche widths, have a strong negative effect on speciation rates. An unexpected result of our model is the strong effect of underlying resource distributions on speciation: in highly fragmented landscapes, speciation rates are reduced.

  12. Evolutionary Catastrophes: The Science of Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hames, Willis

    The stories behind the greatest scientific controversies are more than entertaining. They provide windows into the evolution of scientific thought, scientific method, technological achievements and their research applications, and the influence of individuals and personalities on a community's acceptance of a theory Epic controversies surround the theories for Earth's mass extinction events, and none is more spectacular than the continuing polemic over the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) mass extinctions and ultimate demise of the dinosaurs.In contrast to other great scientific debates, we tend to view the K/T event in the context of a crime scene, where the spectacularly diverse flora and fauna of a primordial Eden were unwittingly slain by one or more ruthless and efficient killers. A “foreign” suspect has been fingered; an intruder that killed suddenly and randomly has become the principal suspect. The main clues uncovered in the case include a global K/T iridium anomaly; shock-deformed minerals in K/T boundary sediments; the ˜6 5 m.y-old Deccan flood-basalt province, which covered an area roughly the size of France; and the ˜6 5 m.y-old Chicxulub impact crater in the Yucatan peninsula, which seems to be among the largest to have formed in the inner solar system over the past billion years.

  13. 关于我国电子货币风险管理的思考%Thinking about electronic currency risk management in our country

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张超

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyses the risk existing in our country's development of electronic money is, and puts forward some measures and suggestions,in order to promote the development of China's electronic currency contribution.%本文针对我国电子货币发展中存在的风险进行了分析,并提出了一些措施和建议,以期为促进我国电子货币的发展做点贡献。

  14. 企业电子商务风险预警系统构建研究%Construction of Early Warning System of Enterprise Electronic Commerce Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺桂和

    2012-01-01

    Due to the existence of enterprise electronic commerce risk, it is necessary to establish early warning system. The functions the early warning system of enterprise electronic commerce risk should have are analyzed, its basic framework is dis- cussed, which include subsystems of risk information collecting, risk identifying, risk assessing and diagnosising, risk warning and risk alarming. We also suggested some implementation strategies such as establishing early warning organization, strengthening enterprise internal control, confirming the police source distribution, establishing risk index system, perfecting the early warning mechanism and application of advanced warning technology, etc.%由于企业电子商务存在有风险,因而有必要建立电子商务风险预警系统。分析企业电子商务风险预警系统应当具备的功能,讨论此类系统的基本架构,包括风险信息收集子系统、风险信息识别子系统、风险评估诊断子系统、风险预警报警子系统、风险预警预控子系统,提出建立预警组织机构、加强企业内部控制、确定警源分布总图、建立风险指标体系、完善预警反应机制、利用先进预警技术等策略来确保风险预警系统功能的实现。

  15. The path to host extinction can lead to loss of generalist parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Maxwell J; Stephens, Patrick R; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Gittleman, John L; Davies, T Jonathan

    2015-07-01

    Host extinction can alter disease transmission dynamics, influence parasite extinction and ultimately change the nature of host-parasite systems. While theory predicts that single-host parasites are among the parasite species most susceptible to extinction following declines in their hosts, documented parasite extinctions are rare. Using a comparative approach, we investigate how the richness of single-host and multi-host parasites is influenced by extinction risk among ungulate and carnivore hosts. Host-parasite associations for free-living carnivores (order Carnivora) and terrestrial ungulates (orders Perissodactyla + Cetartiodactyla minus cetaceans) were merged with host trait data and IUCN Red List status to explore the distribution of single-host and multi-host parasites among threatened and non-threatened hosts. We find that threatened ungulates harbour a higher proportion of single-host parasites compared to non-threatened ungulates, which is explained by decreases in the richness of multi-host parasites. However, among carnivores threat status is not a significant predictor of the proportion of single-host parasites, or the richness of single-host or multi-host parasites. The loss of multi-host parasites from threatened ungulates may be explained by decreased cross-species contact as hosts decline and habitats become fragmented. Among carnivores, threat status may not be important in predicting patterns of parasite specificity because host decline results in equal losses of both single-host parasites and multi-host parasites through reduction in average population density and frequency of cross-species contact. Our results contrast with current models of parasite coextinction and highlight the need for updated theories that are applicable across host groups and account for both inter- and intraspecific contact.

  16. Hamamatsu PMT R7056 Study for the Extinction Monitoring System of the Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

    CERN Document Server

    Boi, S; Hedin, D; Johnson, E; Prebys, E; Rubinov, P

    2015-01-01

    The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab proposes to search for the coherent neutrino-less conversion of muons to electrons in the presence of a nucleus. The experimental signature for an aluminum target is an isolated 105 MeV electron exiting the stopping target no earlier than ~700 ns after the pulse of proton beam hits the production target. Any protons that hit the production target in between the pulses can lead to fake conversion electrons during the measurement period. We define the beam extinction as the ratio of the number of protons striking the production target between pulses to the number striking the target during the pulses. It has been established that an extinction of approximately 10-10 is required to reduce the backgrounds to an acceptable level. It would be desirable to measure the extinction of the beam coming out of the accelerator in a minute or less. Studies for the fast extinction monitor based on Hamamatsu PMT R7056 is the subject of this presentation.

  17. Optical extinction for determining the size distribution of gold nanoparticles fabricated by ultra-short pulsed laser ablation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torchia, G.A. [Centro de Investigaciones Opticas (CIOp), La Plata (Argentina); Universidad de Salamanca, Servicio Laser, Salamanca (Spain); Scaffardi, L.B. [Centro de Investigaciones Opticas (CIOp), La Plata (Argentina); Universidad Nacional La Plata, Departamento de Ciencias Basicas, Facultad de Ingenieria, La Plata (Argentina); Mendez, C.; Moreno, P.; Roso, L. [Universidad de Salamanca, Servicio Laser, Salamanca (Spain); Tocho, J.O. [Centro de Investigaciones Opticas (CIOp), La Plata (Argentina); Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, La Plata (Argentina)

    2008-12-15

    This work presents a method, based on measurements of the optical extinction spectra, to determine the size of spherical gold nanoparticles produced using the femtosecond laser ablation process in deionized water. By using an improved theoretical model that modifies the contribution of the free electrons to the dielectric function introducing a size-dependent term, it is possible to fit the full experimental extinction spectrum considering a certain size distribution. Additionally, in order to obtain complementary measurements of the size distribution, TEM analysis was performed. The results obtained showed that the predominant nanoparticle size distribution ranges from 1 to 11 nm in terms of radii. An optical extinction measurement together with an appropriate theoretical model based on Mie's theory represents a simple, low-cost, fast and easy method to describe a multimodal size distribution of spherical gold nanoparticles. (orig.)

  18. Acute stress impairs the retrieval of extinction memory in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raio, Candace M; Brignoni-Perez, Edith; Goldman, Rachel; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2014-07-01

    Extinction training is a form of inhibitory learning that allows an organism to associate a previously aversive cue with a new, safe outcome. Extinction does not erase a fear association, but instead creates a competing association that may or may not be retrieved when a cue is subsequently encountered. Characterizing the conditions under which extinction learning is expressed is important to enhancing the treatment of anxiety disorders that rely on extinction-based exposure therapy as a primary treatment technique. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex, which plays a critical role in the expression of extinction memory, has been shown to be functionally impaired after stress exposure. Further, recent work in rodents has demonstrated that exposure to stress leads to deficits in extinction retrieval, although this has yet to be tested in humans. To explore how stress might influence extinction retrieval in humans, participants underwent a differential aversive learning paradigm, in which one image was probabilistically paired with an aversive shock while the other image denoted safety. Extinction training directly followed, at which point reinforcement was omitted. A day later, participants returned to the lab and either completed an acute stress manipulation (i.e., cold pressor), or a control task, before undergoing an extinction retrieval test. Skin conductance responses and salivary cortisol concentrations were measured throughout each session as indices of fear arousal and neuroendocrine stress response, respectively. The efficacy of our stress induction was established by observing significant increases in cortisol for the stress condition only. We examined extinction retrieval by comparing conditioned responses during the last trial of extinction (day 1) with that of the first trial of re-extinction (day 2). Groups did not differ on initial fear acquisition or extinction, however, a day later participants in the stress group (n=27) demonstrated significantly

  19. A robust nonparametric method for quantifying undetected extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Ryan A; Giam, Xingli; Sadanandan, Keren R; Fung, Tak; Rheindt, Frank E

    2016-06-01

    How many species have gone extinct in modern times before being described by science? To answer this question, and thereby get a full assessment of humanity's impact on biodiversity, statistical methods that quantify undetected extinctions are required. Such methods have been developed recently, but they are limited by their reliance on parametric assumptions; specifically, they assume the pools of extant and undetected species decay exponentially, whereas real detection rates vary temporally with survey effort and real extinction rates vary with the waxing and waning of threatening processes. We devised a new, nonparametric method for estimating undetected extinctions. As inputs, the method requires only the first and last date at which each species in an ensemble was recorded. As outputs, the method provides estimates of the proportion of species that have gone extinct, detected, or undetected and, in the special case where the number of undetected extant species in the present day is assumed close to zero, of the absolute number of undetected extinct species. The main assumption of the method is that the per-species extinction rate is independent of whether a species has been detected or not. We applied the method to the resident native bird fauna of Singapore. Of 195 recorded species, 58 (29.7%) have gone extinct in the last 200 years. Our method projected that an additional 9.6 species (95% CI 3.4, 19.8) have gone extinct without first being recorded, implying a true extinction rate of 33.0% (95% CI 31.0%, 36.2%). We provide R code for implementing our method. Because our method does not depend on strong assumptions, we expect it to be broadly useful for quantifying undetected extinctions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine facilitates fear extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, M B; Andero, R; Ressler, K J; Howell, L L

    2015-09-15

    Acutely administered 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, 'ecstasy') has been proposed to have long-term positive effects on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms when combined with psychotherapy. No preclinical data support a mechanistic basis for these claims. Given the persistent nature of psychotherapeutic gains facilitated by MDMA, we hypothesized that MDMA improves fear extinction learning, a key process in exposure-based therapies for PTSD. In these experiments, mice were first exposed to cued fear conditioning and treated with drug vehicle or MDMA before extinction training 2 days later. MDMA was administered systemically and also directly targeted to brain structures known to contribute to extinction. In addition to behavioral measures of extinction, changes in mRNA levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf) and Fos were measured after MDMA treatment and extinction. MDMA (7.8 mg kg(-1)) persistently and robustly enhanced long-term extinction when administered before extinction training. MDMA increased the expression of Fos in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), whereas increases in Bdnf expression were observed only in the amygdala after extinction training. Extinction enhancements were recapitulated when MDMA (1 μg) was infused directly into the basolateral complex of the amygdala (BLA), and enhancement was abolished when BDNF signaling was inhibited before extinction. These findings suggest that MDMA enhances fear memory extinction through a BDNF-dependent mechanism, and that MDMA may be a useful adjunct to exposure-based therapies for PTSD and other anxiety disorders characterized by altered fear learning.

  1. Late Pennsylvanian climate changes and palynomorph extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosanke, R.M.; Cecil, C.B.

    1996-01-01

    A major floral change occurs in the Upper Pennsylvanian strata in the Midcontinent, Illinois basin, and in the northern Appalachian basin of eastern United States. Lycospora spp. (derived from arborescent lycopsids) became extinct along with some other palynomorph taxa. This investigation is concerned with the importance of this major floral change. Samples were studied from western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and West Virginia (from a previous study) cover the stratigraphic interval from the Upper Freeport coal bed, uppermost part of the Allegheny Formation, to the Mahoning, Mason, Brush Creek, Wilgus, and Anderson coal beds in the lower part of the Conemaugh Formation. The floral change occurs either at or below the accepted Desmoinesian-Missourian boundary in the Midcontinent and Illinois basin, whereas in the northern Appalachians this change occurs in the lower part of the Conemaugh Formation, between the Mahoning and Brush Creek coal beds, or when the Mason is present, between the Mahoning and Mason coal beds. With the advent of late Middle Pennsylvanian time, the climate began to change from wet tropical to seasonal tropical. The Middle-Upper Pennsylvanian boundary is the culmination of this drying trend, which was marked by reduction of available water. The peat swamps are interpreted as having changed from the domed type of bog to the planar type under these circumstances. Thus, in general, the coals of the Conemaugh Formation are characteristically much thinner than those of the Allegheny Formation. This was caused by a number of factors including reduced or more seasonal rainfall, decline of arborescent lycopsids, and the increased dominance of herbaceous and fern plants. As a result, there are fewer minable coal beds in the Conemaugh Formation. The first coal bed above the extinction of Lycospora spp. is dominated by the palynomorph taxon Endosporites globiformis which is derived from a heterosporous, herbaceous lycopsid. However, Sigillaria, another

  2. CRADA with Teledyne Electronic Technologies and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNL-096): The Exposure-to-Risk monitoring system. Final letter report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thrall, K.D.

    1996-10-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the ``Exposure-to- Risk`` monitoring system in an actual occupational environment. The system is a unique combination of existing hardware with proprietary software to create an integrated means of assessing occupational exposures to volatile organic compounds. One component of this system utilizes a portable mass spectrometer developed by Teledyne Electronic Technologies. Integration of the system was accomplished under Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funding. Commercialization of the system will take place following demonstration in an actual occupational environment, and will include, in part, Teledyne Electronic Technologies. The Exposure-to-Risk monitoring system will benefit DOE by overcoming present-day limitations in worker health protection monitoring. There are numerous sites within the` DOE complex where many different hazardous chemicals are used on a routine basis. These chemicals range from paint stripers and cleaning solvents to chemical warfare agents, each having its own degree of potential adverse health risk to a worker. Thus, a real concern for DOE is to ensure that a worker is properly monitored to assess any adverse health risk from exposure to potentially hazardous chemicals. With current industrial hygiene technologies, this is an arduous task. The Exposure-to-Risk monitoring system integrates a patented breath-inlet device connecting a subject`s exhaled breath directly with a field-portable mass spectrometer with physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to estimate the target tissue dose following a chemical exposure. Estimation of the adverse health risk prediction follows from the exposure/dose calculation based on currently accepted methodologies. This new system can determine, in the field, the possible adverse health risks on a daily basis to an individual worker.

  3. Chapter 4. Susceptibility of sharks, rays and chimaeras to global extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Iain C; Meekan, Mark G; Buckworth, Rik C; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2009-01-01

    Marine biodiversity worldwide is under increasing threat, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution and climate change. Chondrichthyan fishes (sharks, rays and chimaeras) have a perceived higher intrinsic risk of extinction compared to other fish. Direct fishing mortality has driven many declines, even though some smaller fisheries persist without associated declines. Mixed-species fisheries are of particular concern, as is illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. The lack of specific management and reporting mechanisms for the latter means that many chondrichthyans might already be susceptible to extinction from stochastic processes entirely unrelated to fishing pressure itself. Chondrichthyans might also suffer relatively more than other marine taxa from the effects of fishing and habitat loss and degradation given coastal habitat use for specific life stages. The effects of invasive species and pollution are as yet too poorly understood to predict their long-term role in affecting chondrichthyan population sizes. The spatial distribution of threatened chondrichthyan species under World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List criteria are clustered mainly in (1) south-eastern South America; (2) western Europe and the Mediterranean; (3) western Africa; (4) South China Sea and Southeast Asia and (5) south-eastern Australia. To determine which ecological and life history traits predispose chondrichthyans to being IUCN Red-Listed, and to examine the role of particular human activities in exacerbating threat risk, we correlated extant marine species' Red List categorisation with available ecological (habitat type, temperature preference), life history (body length, range size) and human-relationship (whether commercially or game-fished, considered dangerous to humans) variables. Threat risk correlations were constructed using generalised linear mixed-effect models to account for phylogenetic relatedness. We also contrasted results for chondrichthyans to

  4. Ecological specialization and population size in a biodiversity hotspot: how rare species avoid extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, S E; Williams, Y M; VanDerWal, J; Isaac, J L; Shoo, L P; Johnson, C N

    2009-11-17

    Species with narrow environmental niches typically have small geographic ranges. Small range size is, in turn, often associated with low local abundance. Together, these factors should mean that ecological specialists have very small total populations, putting them at high risk of extinction. But some specialized and geographically restricted species are ancient, and some ecological communities have high proportions of rare and specialized endemics. We studied niche characteristics and patterns of distribution and abundance of terrestrial vertebrates in the rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT) to identify mechanisms by which rare species might resist extinction. We show that species with narrow environmental niches and small geographic ranges tend to have high and uniform local abundances. The compensation of geographic rarity by local abundance is exact, such that total population size in the rainforest vertebrates of the AWT is independent of environmental specialization. This effect would tend to help equalize extinction risk for specialists and generalists. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that environmental specialists have been gradually accumulating in this fauna, indicating that small range size/environmental specialization can be a successful trait as long as it is compensated for by demographic commonness. These results provide an explanation of how range-restricted specialists can persist for long periods, so that they now form a major component of high-diversity assemblages such as the AWT.

  5. Extinction of drug seeking: Neural circuits and approaches to augmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, Gavan P

    2014-01-01

    Extinction training can reduce drug seeking behavior. This article reviews the neural circuits that contribute to extinction and approaches to enhancing the efficacy of extinction. Extinction of drug seeking depends on cortical-striatal-hypothalamic and cortical-hypothalamic-thalamic pathways. These pathways interface, in the hypothalamus and thalamus respectively, with the neural circuits controlling reinstatement of drug seeking. The actions of these pathways at lateral hypothalamic orexin neurons, and of perifornical/dorsomedial hypothalamic derived opioid peptides at kappa opioid receptors in the paraventricular thalamus, are important for inhibiting drug seeking. Despite effectively reducing or inhibiting drug seeking in the short term, extinguished drug seeking is prone to relapse. Three different strategies to augment extinction learning or retrieval are reviewed: pharmacological augmentation, retrieval - extinction training, and provision of extinction memory retrieval cues. These strategies have been used in animal models and with human drug users to enhance extinction or cue exposure treatments. They hold promise as novel strategies to promote abstinence from drug seeking. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'NIDA 40th Anniversary Issue'.

  6. Deepened Extinction following Compound Stimulus Presentation: Noradrenergic Modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janak, Patricia H.; Corbit, Laura H.

    2011-01-01

    Behavioral extinction is an active form of new learning involving the prediction of nonreward where reward has previously been present. The expression of extinction learning can be disrupted by the presentation of reward itself or reward-predictive stimuli (reinstatement) as well as the passage of time (spontaneous recovery) or contextual changes…

  7. Asymptotic behaviour near extinction of continuous-state branching processes

    OpenAIRE

    Pardo, Juan Carlos; Berzunza, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.

  8. Late Pleistocene and Holocene mammal extinctions on continental Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faith, J. Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cause of late Quaternary mammal extinctions is the subject of intense debate spanning the fields of archeology and paleontology. In the global context, the losses on continental Africa have received little attention and are poorly understood. This study aims to inspire new discussion of African extinctions through a review of the extinct species and the chronology and possible causes of those extinctions. There are at least 24 large mammal (> 5 kg) species known to have disappeared from continental Africa during the late Pleistocene or Holocene, indicating a much greater taxonomic breadth than previously recognized. Among the better sampled taxa, these losses are restricted to the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene, between 13,000 and 6000 yrs ago. The African extinctions preferentially affected species that are grazers or prefer grasslands. Where good terrestrial paleoenvironmental records are present, extinctions are associated with changes in the availability, productivity, or structure of grassland habitats, suggesting that environmental changes played a decisive role in the losses. In the broader evolutionary context, these extinctions represent recent examples of selective taxonomic winnowing characterized by the loss of grassland specialists and the establishment of large mammal communities composed of more ecologically flexible taxa over the last million years. There is little reason to believe that humans played an important role in African extinctions.

  9. Chronic Cannabinoid Administration in Vivo Compromises Extinction of Fear Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hui-Ching; Mao, Sheng-Chun; Chen, Po-See; Gean, Po-Wu

    2008-01-01

    Endocannabinoids are critically involved in the extinction of fear memory. Here we examined the effects of repeated cannabinoid administration on the extinction of fear memory in rats and on inhibitory synaptic transmission in medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) slices. Rats were treated with the CB1 receptor agonist WIN55212-2 (WIN 10 mg/kg, i.p.)…

  10. High-precision timeline for Earth's most severe extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Seth D; Bowring, Samuel; Shen, Shu-zhong

    2014-03-04

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most severe loss of marine and terrestrial biota in the last 542 My. Understanding its cause and the controls on extinction/recovery dynamics depends on an accurate and precise age model. U-Pb zircon dates for five volcanic ash beds from the Global Stratotype Section and Point for the Permian-Triassic boundary at Meishan, China, define an age model for the extinction and allow exploration of the links between global environmental perturbation, carbon cycle disruption, mass extinction, and recovery at millennial timescales. The extinction occurred between 251.941 ± 0.037 and 251.880 ± 0.031 Mya, an interval of 60 ± 48 ka. Onset of a major reorganization of the carbon cycle immediately precedes the initiation of extinction and is punctuated by a sharp (3‰), short-lived negative spike in the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon. Carbon cycle volatility persists for ∼500 ka before a return to near preextinction values. Decamillenial to millennial level resolution of the mass extinction and its aftermath will permit a refined evaluation of the relative roles of rate-dependent processes contributing to the extinction, allowing insight into postextinction ecosystem expansion, and establish an accurate time point for evaluating the plausibility of trigger and kill mechanisms.

  11. The Effects of Context Extinction on US Signal Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard Murray J.

    2007-01-01

    Two experiments with rats examined the effects of context extinction on responding to the signal value of an unconditioned stimulus (US). In Experiment 1, US signal value was first trained when a single food pellet signaled the delivery of three additional pellets. After training, rats received either context extinction (CE) or home cage (HC)…

  12. Extinction can be estimated from moderately sized molecular phylogenies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C

    2015-04-01

    Hundreds of studies have been dedicated to estimating speciation and extinction from phylogenies of extant species. Although it has long been known that estimates of extinction rates using trees of extant organisms are often uncertain, an influential paper by Rabosky (2010) suggested that when birth rates vary continuously across the tree, estimates of the extinction fraction (i.e., extinction rate/speciation rate) will appear strongly bimodal, with a peak suggesting no extinction and a peak implying speciation and extinction rates are approaching equality. On the basis of these results, and the realistic nature of this form of rate variation, it is now generally assumed by many practitioners that extinction cannot be understood from molecular phylogenies alone. Here, we reevaluated and extended the analyses of Rabosky (2010) and come to the opposite conclusion-namely, that it is possible to estimate extinction from molecular phylogenies, even with model violations due to heritable variation in diversification rate. Note that while it may be tempting to interpret our study as advocating the application of simple birth-death models, our goal here is to show how a particular model violation does not necessitate the abandonment of an entire field: use prudent caution, but do not abandon all hope. © 2015 The Author(s).

  13. The Impact of Electronic Educational Technology on Ninth Grade At-Risk Reading Students: A Quantitative Investigation of Reading Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Darcel

    2010-01-01

    Over 50% of American public school students read below average literacy levels. Recent research suggests that oral and print-based high school curriculum instruction require an infusion of electronic educational technology (EET), such as computer programs, online instruction, electronic thesaurus, and other devices, to better serve student need…

  14. Scientists Drill for Clues to Dinosaur Extinction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张一

    2001-01-01

    @@ [选注者言:20世纪70年代,墨西哥的Yucatan半岛的石油勘探发现了著名的Chicxulub大坑.直到20世纪90年代,科学家才认定,此大坑是由6千5百万年的一颗小行星撞击地球而形成,这次撞击导致地球上的恐龙灭绝.现在,科学家拟再次对此大坑作一番发掘研究,旨在:to determine once andfor all(一劳永逸的;彻底地)whatled to the global extinction(消灭)of the dinosaurs(恐龙)millions of years ago.

  15. [Silphium from Cyrenaica, an extinct medicinal plant].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Silphium was both a spice and a medicinal plant. It was regarded as "one of the most precious gifts of Nature to man" (Pliny), and was one of the main sources of revenue contributing to Cyrenaica's wealth. It was so critical to the Cyrenian economy that most of their coins bore a picture of the plant. But, by the time of Nero, the plant had become extinct, probably as a result of overgrazing and overcropping. The botanical identification of silphium is dificult, but the plant was an Umbellifera and most closely resembled Ferula tingitana. Hippocrates, Celsus, Galen and Oribasius recommended it for quartan fever, but it was also said to be useful for many other diseases.

  16. Light extinction method for solubility measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shui Wang; Jingkang Wang; Qiuxiang Yin; Yongli Wang

    2005-01-01

    A novel measurement method for chemical solubility determination is brought forward, in which the advantages of two kinds of traditional methods are united. The results show that the concentration of unsolved particles suspending in the solution can be determined by measuring I/I0 (ratio of the transmission intensity to the incident intensity) of the laser beam permeating through the solution according to Lamben-Beer law. The biggest relative deviation for the solubility data determined is less than 1.5% for the sparingly soluble substances and 0.3% for the opulently soluble substances. By comparison of the experimental solubility data with previous data, the light extinction method is demonstrated to be stable and reliable.

  17. Promotion of cooperation by selective group extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, Marvin A.; Nagler, Jan

    2016-06-01

    Multilevel selection is an important organizing principle that crucially underlies evolutionary processes from the emergence of cells to eusociality and the economics of nations. Previous studies on multilevel selection assumed that the effective higher-level selection emerges from lower-level reproduction. This leads to selection among groups, although only individuals reproduce. We introduce selective group extinction, where groups die with a probability inversely proportional to their group fitness. When accounting for this the critical benefit-to-cost ratio is substantially lowered. Because in game theory and evolutionary dynamics the degree of cooperation crucially depends on this ratio above which cooperation emerges, previous studies may have substantially underestimated the establishment and maintenance of cooperation.

  18. [Extinction of emotional response as a novel approach of pharmacotherapy of anxiety disorders].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, Małgorzata; Wisłowska-Stanek, Aleksandra; Płaznik, Adam

    2009-01-01

    Studies on the neurobiological background of anxiety indicate that the patogenesis of anxiety may be related to the process of an extinction of aversive memories. It has been suggested that disruption of selective attention for emotional stimuli may confer the risk for mental disorders, such as phobias and post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD. Differences in the effects of local neuronal and hormonal activities of the HPA axis on emotional memory formation, might underlie individual differences in the emotional reactivity. Studies on molecular and cellular mechanisms responsible for individual fear extinction may serve as the basis of search for more effective forms of clinical treatment of anxiety. Behavioural therapy of phobias and PTSD can be facilitated by D-cycloserine (the agonist at the glycine site of the NMDA receptor), ligands stimulating endogenous cannabinoid system and by gluocorticosteroids. Although all these substances stimulate different central mechanisms, they appear to act synergistically, to improve the behavioural therapy.

  19. Scientists Drill for Clues to Dinosaur Extinction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张一

    2001-01-01

    20世纪70年代,墨西哥的Yucatan半岛的石油勘探发现了著名的Chicxulub大坑。直到20世纪90年代,科学家才认定,此大坑是由6千5百万年的一颗小行星撞击地球而形成,这次撞击导致地球上的恐龙灭绝。现在,科学家拟再次对此大坑作一番发掘研究,旨在:to determine once andfor all(一劳永逸的;彻底地)what led to the global extinction(消灭)of the dinosaurs(恐龙)millions of years ago。 本文为读者描绘了当年地球遭受此灭顶之灾时的可怕情景: Millions of years before humans even existed,a huge meteorite(陨星)measuring about 6 miles across and weighing perhaps billions of tons crashed intothe planet in a ball of fire,shrouding the Earth in a dense cloud of dust that blocked out sunlight and sent temperatures plummeting(垂直落下). 文中有一句话颇能引起读者的共鸣: It’s a 100 million-year event—they don’t occur that often,thank God. 文中的一个成语的使用却值得商榷: …hoping to determine once and for all(一劳永逸的;彻底地)what led to theglobal extinction(消灭)of the dinosaurs(恐龙)millions of years ago.在科学探索的道路上,once and for all也许只是一种良好

  20. Is chytridiomycosis driving Darwin's frogs to extinction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Soto-Azat

    Full Text Available Darwin's frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum are two species of mouth brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina that have experienced marked population declines. Rhinoderma rufum has not been found in the wild since 1980. We investigated historical and current evidence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd infection in Rhinoderma spp. to determine whether chytridiomycosis is implicated in the population declines of these species. Archived and live specimens of Rhinoderma spp., sympatric amphibians and amphibians at sites where Rhinoderma sp. had recently gone extinct were examined for Bd infection using quantitative real-time PCR. Six (0.9% of 662 archived anurans tested positive for Bd (4/289 R. darwinii; 1/266 R. rufum and 1/107 other anurans, all of which had been collected between 1970 and 1978. An overall Bd-infection prevalence of 12.5% was obtained from 797 swabs taken from 369 extant individuals of R. darwinii and 428 individuals representing 18 other species of anurans found at sites with current and recent presence of the two Rhinoderma species. In extant R. darwinii, Bd-infection prevalence (1.9% was significantly lower than that found in other anurans (7.3%. The prevalence of infection (30% in other amphibian species was significantly higher in sites where either Rhinoderma spp. had become extinct or was experiencing severe population declines than in sites where there had been no apparent decline (3.0%; x(2 = 106.407, P<0.001. This is the first report of widespread Bd presence in Chile and our results are consistent with Rhinoderma spp. declines being due to Bd infection, although additional field and laboratory investigations are required to investigate this further.

  1. Mechanisms of renewal after the extinction of instrumental behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Travis P

    2013-07-01

    Four experiments with rats examined renewal of extinguished instrumental behavior when the reinforcement histories of the contexts were equated by giving complementary training and extinction of a different response (lever press and chain pull) in each context. In Experiments 1 through 3, renewal occurred when the response was tested in the acquisition context (ABA) or outside the extinction context (AAB and ABC). Further, in Experiments 1 through 3, when both responses were simultaneously available, there was a clear preference for the response that was not in its extinction context. In Experiment 4, renewal was not reduced when testing occurred in a context that had been associated with extinction of the other instrumental response. The experimental designs rule out differential context-reinforcer associations being the only contributing mechanism of renewal, and also raise questions about configural and occasion-setting accounts. The results are consistent with the idea that during extinction an inhibitory association is formed between the context and the response.

  2. Double Mass Extinctions and the Volcanogenic Dark Matter Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Abbas, S; Mohanty, S; Abbas, Samar; Abbas, Afsar; Mohanty, Shukadev

    1998-01-01

    A few of the major mass extinctions of paleontology have recently been found to consist of two distinct extinction peaks at higher resolution. A viable explanation for this remains elusive. In this paper it is shown that the recently proposed volcanogenic dark matter model can explain this puzzling characteristic of these extinctions. The accumulation and annihilation of dark matter in the center of the Earth due to the passage of a clump leads to excess heat generation with the consequent ejection of superplumes, followed by massive volcanism and attendant mass extinctions. This is preceded by an extinction pulse due to carcinogenesis arising from the direct interaction of the clumped dark matter with living organisms.

  3. Cretaceous stem chondrichthyans survived the end-Permian mass extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinot, Guillaume; Adnet, Sylvain; Cavin, Lionel; Cappetta, Henri

    2013-01-01

    Cladodontomorph sharks are Palaeozoic stem chondrichthyans thought to go extinct at the end-Permian mass extinction. This extinction preceded the diversification of euselachians, including modern sharks. Here we describe an outer-platform cladodontomorph shark tooth assemblage from the Early Cretaceous of southern France, increasing the fossil record of this group by circa 120 million years. Identification of this material rests on new histological observations and morphological evidence. Our finding shows that this lineage survived mass extinctions most likely by habitat contraction, using deep-sea refuge environments during catastrophic events. The recorded gap in the cladodontomorph lineage represents the longest gap in the fossil record for an extinct marine vertebrate group. This discovery demonstrates that the deep-sea marine diversity, poorly known during most of the fish evolutionary history, contains essential data for a complete understanding of the long-term evolution of marine fish paleobiodiversity.

  4. Porous and Fluffy Grains in the Regions of Anomalous Extinction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    D. B. Vaidya; B. G. Anandarao; J. N. Desai; R. Gupta

    2000-06-01

    It has long been established that the ratio of total to selective extinction is anomalously large (≥ 5) in certain regions of the interstellar medium. In these regions of anomalous extinction the dust grains are likely to be irregular in shape and fluffy in structure. Using discrete dipole approximation (DDA) we calculate the extinction for porous and fluffy grains. We apply DDA first to solid spheroidal particles assumed to be made of a certain (large) number of dipoles. Then we systematically reduce the number of dipoles to model the porous grains. The aggregates of these particles are suggested to form the fluffy grains. We study the extinction for these particles as a function of grain size, porosity and wavelength. We apply these calculations to interpret the observed extinction data in the regions of star formation (e.g. the Orion complex).

  5. Mass Extinctions and The Sun's Encounters with Spiral Arms

    CERN Document Server

    Leitch, E M; Vasisht, Erik M. Leitch & Gautam

    1998-01-01

    The terrestrial fossil record shows that the exponential rise in biodiversity since the Precambrian period has been punctuated by large extinctions, at intervals of 40 to 140 Myr. These mass extinctions represent extremes over a background of smaller events and the natural process of species extinction. We point out that the non-terrestrial phenomena proposed to explain these events, such as boloidal impacts (a candidate for the end-Cretaceous extinction), and nearby supernovae, are collectively far more effective during the solar system's traversal of spiral arms. Using the best available data on the location and kinematics of the Galactic spiral structure (including distance scale and kinematic uncertainties), we present evidence that arm crossings provide a viable explanation for the timing of the large extinctions.

  6. Perseveration of the partial reinforcement effect in extinction with rats over two phases of extinction and two stages of continuous reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calef, Richard S; Choban, Michael C; Glenney, Katherine R; Calef, Ruth A; Schmitt, Erik; Hinte, Sarah; Clegg, Megan; Kraynok, Joseph E; Richards, Sallie D

    2007-02-01

    One group of 10 male albino rats was given partial reinforcement while the other 10 rats received continuous reinforcement in a straight alley. Subjects then experienced five consecutive stages of Extinction 1, Continuous Reinforcement 1, Extinction 2, Continuous Reinforcement 2, and finally, Extinction 3. Analysis showed the partial reinforcement effect in extinction was sustained over two stages of extinction and two stages of continuous reinforcement, since subjects receiving partial reinforcement ran faster than rats given continuous reinforcement throughout all three of the extinction periods. The results seem to support those of Amsel's (1967) and Cabpaldi's (1967) theoretical formulations of the partial reinforcement effect in extinction.

  7. Glutamate Receptors in Extinction and Extinction-Based Therapies for Psychiatric Illness

    OpenAIRE

    Myers, Karyn M.; William A Carlezon; Davis, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Some psychiatric illnesses involve a learned component. For example, in posttraumatic stress disorder, memories triggered by trauma-associated cues trigger fear and anxiety, and in addiction, drug-associated cues elicit drug craving and withdrawal. Clinical interventions to reduce the impact of conditioned cues in eliciting these maladaptive conditioned responses are likely to be beneficial. Extinction is a method of lessening conditioned responses and involves repeated exposures to a cue in ...

  8. Unpaired shocks during extinction weaken the contextual renewal of a conditioned discrimination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervliet, B.; Vansteenwegen, D.; Hermans, D.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction is generally more fragile than conditioning, as illustrated by the contextual renewal effect. The traditional extinction procedure entails isolated presentations of the conditioned stimulus. Extinction may be boosted by adding isolated presentations of the unconditioned stimulus, as this

  9. Behavioral and neural bases of extinction learning in Hermissenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel S. Cavallo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Extinction of classical conditioning is thought to produce new learning that masks or interferes with the original memory. However, research in the nudibranch Hermissenda crassicornis (H.c. has challenged this view, and instead suggested that extinction erased the original associative memory. We have re-examined extinction in H.c. to test whether extinguished associative memories can be detected on the behavioral and cellular levels, and to characterize the temporal variables involved. Associative conditioning using pairings of light (CS and rotation (US produced characteristic suppression of H.c. phototactic behavior. A single session of extinction training (repeated light-alone presentations reversed suppressed behavior back to pre-training levels when administered 15 min after associative conditioning. This effect was abolished if extinction was delayed by 23 hr, and yet was recovered using extended extinction training (three consecutive daily extinction sessions. Extinguished phototactic suppression did not spontaneously recover at any retention interval tested (2-, 24-, 48-, 72-hr, or after additional US presentations (no observed reinstatement. Extinction training (single session, 15 min interval also reversed the pairing-produced increases in light-evoked spike frequencies of Type B photoreceptors, an identified site of associative memory storage that is causally related to phototactic suppression. These results suggest that the behavioral effects of extinction training are not due to temporary suppression of associative memories, but instead represent a reversal of the underlying cellular changes necessary for the expression of learning. In the companion article, we further elucidate mechanisms responsible for extinction-produced reversal of memory-related neural plasticity in Type B photoreceptors.

  10. Adrenal-dependent diurnal modulation of conditioned fear extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff, Elizabeth R; Greenwood, Benjamin N; Chun, Lauren E; Fardi, Sara; Hinds, Laura R; Spencer, Robert L

    2015-06-01

    Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with altered conditioned fear extinction expression and impaired circadian function including dysregulation of glucocorticoid hormone secretion. We examined in adult male rats the relationship between conditioned fear extinction learning, circadian phase, and endogenous glucocorticoids (CORT). Rats maintained on a 12h light:dark cycle were trained and tested across 3 separate daily sessions (conditioned fear acquisition and 2 extinction sessions) that were administered during either the rats' active or inactive circadian phase. In an initial experiment we found that rats at both circadian phases acquired and extinguished auditory cue conditioned fear to a similar degree in the first extinction session. However, rats trained and tested at zeitgeber time-16 (ZT16) (active phase) showed enhanced extinction memory expression during the second extinction session compared to rats trained and tested at ZT4 (inactive phase). In a follow-up experiment, adrenalectomized (ADX) or sham surgery rats were similarly trained and tested across 3 separate daily sessions at either ZT4 or ZT16. ADX had no effect on conditioned fear acquisition or conditioned fear memory. Sham ADX rats trained and tested at ZT16 exhibited better extinction learning across the two extinction sessions compared to all other groups of rats. These results indicate that conditioned fear extinction learning is modulated by time of day, and this diurnal modulation requires the presence of adrenal hormones. These results support an important role of CORT-dependent circadian processes in regulating conditioned fear extinction learning, which may be capitalized upon to optimize effective treatment of PTSD.

  11. Evolution of dust extinction curves in galaxy simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Kuan-Chou; Hirashita, Hiroyuki; Nagamine, Kentaro; Aoyama, Shohei; Shimizu, Ikkoh

    2017-07-01

    To understand the evolution of extinction curve, we calculate the dust evolution in a galaxy using smoothed particle hydrodynamic simulations incorporating stellar dust production, dust destruction in supernova shocks, grain growth by accretion and coagulation, and grain disruption by shattering. The dust species are separated into carbonaceous dust and silicate. The evolution of grain size distribution is considered by dividing grain population into large and small grains, which allows us to estimate extinction curves. We examine the dependence of extinction curves on the position, gas density and metallicity in the galaxy, and find that extinction curves are flat at t ≲ 0.3 Gyr because stellar dust production dominates the total dust abundance. The 2175 Å bump and far-ultraviolet (FUV) rise become prominent after dust growth by accretion. At t ≳ 3 Gyr, shattering works efficiently in the outer disc and low-density regions, so extinction curves show a very strong 2175 Å bump and steep FUV rise. The extinction curves at t ≳ 3 Gyr are consistent with the Milky Way extinction curve, which implies that we successfully included the necessary dust processes in the model. The outer disc component caused by stellar feedback has an extinction curve with a weaker 2175 Å bump and flatter FUV slope. The strong contribution of carbonaceous dust tends to underproduce the FUV rise in the Small Magellanic Cloud extinction curve, which supports selective loss of small carbonaceous dust in the galaxy. The snapshot at young ages also explains the extinction curves in high-redshift quasars.

  12. Adrenal-dependent diurnal modulation of conditioned fear extinction learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff, Elizabeth R.; Greenwood, Benjamin N.; Chun, Lauren E.; Fardi, Sara; Hinds, Laura R.; Spencer, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is associated with altered conditioned fear extinction expression and impaired circadian function including dysregulation of glucocorticoid hormone secretion. We examined in adult male rats the relationship between conditioned fear extinction learning, circadian phase, and endogenous glucocorticoids (CORT). Rats maintained on a 12 hr light:dark cycle were trained and tested across 3 separate daily sessions (conditioned fear acquisition and 2 extinction sessions) that were administered during either the rats’ active or inactive circadian phase. In an initial experiment we found that rats at both circadian phases acquired and extinguished auditory cue conditioned fear to a similar degree in the first extinction session. However, rats trained and tested at zeitgeber time-16 (ZT16) (active phase) showed enhanced extinction memory expression during the second extinction session compared to rats trained and tested at ZT4 (inactive phase). In a follow-up experiment, adrenalectomized (ADX) or sham surgery rats were similarly trained and tested across 3 separate daily sessions at either ZT4 or ZT16. ADX had no effect on conditioned fear acquisition or conditioned fear memory. Sham ADX rats trained and tested at ZT16 exhibited better extinction learning across the two extinction sessions compared to all other groups of rats. These results indicate that conditioned fear extinction learning is modulated by time of day, and this diurnal modulation requires the presence of adrenal hormones. These results support an important role of CORT-dependent circadian processes in regulating conditioned fear extinction learning, which may be capitalized upon to optimize effective treatment of PTSD. PMID:25746455

  13. Trajectories of Late Permian – Jurassic radiolarian extinction rates: no evidence for an end-Triassic mass extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Kiessling

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The hypothesis that ocean acidification was a proximate trigger of the marine end-Triassic mass extinction rests on the assumption that taxa that strongly invest in the secretion of calcium-carbonate skeletons were significantly more affected by the crisis than other taxa. An argument against this hypothesis is the great extinction toll of radiolarians that has been reported from work on local sections. Radiolarians have siliceous tests and thus should be less affected by ocean acidification. We compiled taxonomically vetted occurrences of late Permian and Mesozoic radiolarians and analyzed extinction dynamics of radiolarian genera. Although extinction rates were high at the end of the Triassic, there is no evidence for a mass extinction in radiolarians but rather significantly higher background extinction in the Triassic than in the Jurassic. Although the causes for this decline in background extinction levels remain unclear, the lack of a major evolutionary response to the end-Triassic event, gives support for the hypothesis that ocean acidification was involved in the dramatic extinctions of many calcifying taxa. doi:10.1002/mmng.201000017

  14. Extinctions in Ecological Communities : direct and indirect effects of perturbation on biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Curtsdotter, Alva

    2014-01-01

    In the dawning of what may become Earth’s 6th mass extinction the topic of this thesis, understanding extinction processes and what determines the magnitude of species loss, has become only too relevant. The number of known extinctions (~850) during the last centuries translates to extinction rates elevated above the background rate, matching those of previous mass extinction events. The main drivers of these extinctions have been human land use, introduction of exotic species and overexploit...

  15. Spontaneous recovery from extinction in the infant rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revillo, D A; Paglini, M G; Arias, C

    2014-11-01

    Within the Pavlovian conditioning framework, extinction is a procedure in which, after conditioning, the conditioned stimulus (CS) is repeatedly presented without the unconditioned stimulus (US). During this procedure the conditioned response (CR) is gradually attenuated. It has been suggested that extinction during the early stages of ontogeny is a qualitatively different process from extinction in adulthood: during infancy, extinction may result in erasure of the memory, while during adulthood extinction involves new learning. This conclusion was supported by studies showing that renewal, reinstatement or spontaneous recovery procedures were not effective during infancy for recovering the CR once it had been extinguished. These studies used the freezing response as the only behavioral index, although some recent evidence indicates that the absence of freezing after conditioning or after extinction does not necessarily imply a deficit in memory, and that other behavioral indexes may be more sensitive to detecting conditioning effects. The goal of the present study was to analyze extinction in preweanling rats by examining the possibility of the spontaneous recovery of a conditioned fear response, measured through a different set of mutually-exclusive behaviors that constitute an exhaustive ethogram, and including control groups (Experiment 1: US-Only and CS-Only; Experiment 2: US-Only, CS-Only and Unpaired) in order to examine whether non-associative learning may explain quantitative or qualitative changes in the frequency of specific responses during extinction or recovery. Extinction produced changes in the expression of freezing, grooming and exploration, and the clearest evidence of spontaneous recovery came from the analysis of freezing behavior. The pattern of behavior observed during extinction is compatible with theoretical approaches which consider different dynamic behavioral systems, and it also fit in well with a molar approach to the analysis of

  16. Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vos, Jurriaan M; Joppa, Lucas N; Gittleman, John L; Stephens, Patrick R; Pimm, Stuart L

    2015-04-01

    A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100-1000 times pre-human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard-bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification-the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over- and under-estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre-human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05-0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural

  17. Tunable optical extinction of nano-antennas for solar energy conversion from near-infrared to visible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wambold, Raymond A.; Chen, James M.; Cutler, Paul H.; Miskovsky, Nicholas M.; Qi, Jie; Weisel, Gary J.; Willis, Brian G.; Zimmerman, Darin T.

    2015-08-01

    We present a systematic study of tunable, plasmon extinction characteristics of arrays of nanoscale antennas that have potential use as sensors, energy-harvesting devices, catalytic converters, in near-field optical microscopy, and in surfaced-enhanced spectroscopy. Each device is composed of a palladium triangular-prism antenna and a flat counterelectrode. Arrays of devices are fabricated on silica using electron-beam lithography, followed by atomic-layer deposition (ALD) of copper. Optical extinction is measured by employing a broadband light source in a confocal, transmission arrangement. We demonstrate that the plasmon resonance in the extinction may be tailored by varying lithography conditions and is modified significantly by ALD. Most important, is the ability to control the gap spacing between the two electrodes, which, along with overall size, morphology, and material properties, modifies the plasmon resonance. We employ Finite-Difference Time-Domain simulations to demonstrate good agreement between experimental data and theory and use scanning electron microscopy to correlate plasmonic extinction characteristics with changes in morphology.

  18. Can we avoid the Sixth Mass Extinction? Setting today's extinction crisis in the context of the Big Five

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    While the ultimate extinction driver now—Homo sapiens—is unique with respect to the drivers of past extinctions, comparison of parallel neontological and paleontological information helps calibrate how far the so-called Sixth Mass Extinction has progressed and whether it is inevitable. Such comparisons document that rates of extinction today are approaching or exceeding those that characterized the Big Five Mass Extinctions. Continuation of present extinction rates for vertebrates, for example, would result in 75% species loss—the minimum benchmark exhibited in the Big Five extinctions—within 3 to 22 centuries, assuming constant rates of loss and no threshold effects. Preceding and during each of the Big Five, the global ecosystem experienced major changes in climate, atmospheric chemisty, and ocean chemistry—not unlike what is being observed presently. Nevertheless, only 1-2% of well-assessed modern species have been lost over the past five centuries, still far below what characterized past mass extinctions in the strict paleontological sense. For mammals, adding in the end-Pleistocene species that died out would increase the species-loss percentage by some 5%. If threatened vertebrate species were to actually go extinct, losses would rise to between 14 and 40%, depending on the group. Such observations highlight that, although many species have already had their populations drastically reduced to near-critical levels, the Sixth Mass Extinction has not yet progressed to the point where it is unavoidable. Put another way, the vast majority of species that have occupied the world in concert with Homo sapiens are still alive and are possible to save. That task, however, will require slowing the abnormally high extinction rates that are now in progress, which in turn requires unified efforts to cap human population growth, decrease the average human footprint, reduce fossil fuel use while simultaneously increasing clean energy technologies, integrate

  19. Discovery or Extinction of New Scleroderma Species in Amazonia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baseia, Iuri G.; Silva, Bianca D. B.; Ishikawa, Noemia K.; Soares, João V. C.; França, Isadora F.; Ushijima, Shuji; Maekawa, Nitaro

    2016-01-01

    The Amazon Forest is a hotspot of biodiversity harboring an unknown number of undescribed taxa. Inventory studies are urgent, mainly in the areas most endangered by human activities such as extensive dam construction, where species could be in risk of extinction before being described and named. In 2015, intensive studies performed in a few locations in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest revealed three new species of the genus Scleroderma: S. anomalosporum, S. camassuense and S. duckei. The two first species were located in one of the many areas flooded by construction of hydroelectric dams throughout the Amazon; and the third in the Reserva Florestal Adolpho Ducke, a protected reverse by the INPA. The species were identified through morphology and molecular analyses of barcoding sequences (Internal Transcribed Spacer nrDNA). Scleroderma anomalosporum is characterized mainly by the smooth spores under LM in mature basidiomata (under SEM with small, unevenly distributed granules, a characteristic not observed in other species of the genus), the large size of the basidiomata, up to 120 mm diameter, and the stelliform dehiscence; S. camassuense mainly by the irregular to stellate dehiscence, the subreticulated spores and the bright sulfur-yellow colour, and Scleroderma duckei mainly by the verrucose exoperidium, stelliform dehiscence, and verrucose spores. Description, illustration and affinities with other species of the genus are provided. PMID:28002414

  20. Discovery or Extinction of New Scleroderma Species in Amazonia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baseia, Iuri G; Silva, Bianca D B; Ishikawa, Noemia K; Soares, João V C; França, Isadora F; Ushijima, Shuji; Maekawa, Nitaro; Martín, María P

    2016-01-01

    The Amazon Forest is a hotspot of biodiversity harboring an unknown number of undescribed taxa. Inventory studies are urgent, mainly in the areas most endangered by human activities such as extensive dam construction, where species could be in risk of extinction before being described and named. In 2015, intensive studies performed in a few locations in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest revealed three new species of the genus Scleroderma: S. anomalosporum, S. camassuense and S. duckei. The two first species were located in one of the many areas flooded by construction of hydroelectric dams throughout the Amazon; and the third in the Reserva Florestal Adolpho Ducke, a protected reverse by the INPA. The species were identified through morphology and molecular analyses of barcoding sequences (Internal Transcribed Spacer nrDNA). Scleroderma anomalosporum is characterized mainly by the smooth spores under LM in mature basidiomata (under SEM with small, unevenly distributed granules, a characteristic not observed in other species of the genus), the large size of the basidiomata, up to 120 mm diameter, and the stelliform dehiscence; S. camassuense mainly by the irregular to stellate dehiscence, the subreticulated spores and the bright sulfur-yellow colour, and Scleroderma duckei mainly by the verrucose exoperidium, stelliform dehiscence, and verrucose spores. Description, illustration and affinities with other species of the genus are provided.

  1. Extinction and spontaneous recovery of spatial behavior in pigeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leising, Kenneth J; Wong, Jared; Blaisdell, Aaron P

    2015-10-01

    We investigated extinction and spontaneous recovery of spatial associations using a landmark-based appetitive search task in a touchscreen preparation with pigeons. Four visual landmarks (A, B, C, and D) were separately established as signals of a hidden reinforced target among an 8 × 7 array of potential target locations. The target was located above landmarks (LM) A and C and below B and D. After conditioning, A and B were extinguished. Responding to A and C was assessed on probe tests 2 days following extinction, whereas, B and D were tested 14 days after extinction. We observed spontaneous recovery from spatial extinction following a 14-day, but not a 2-day, postextinction retention interval. Furthermore, by plotting the spatial distribution of responding across the X and Y axes during testing, we found that spontaneous recovery of responding to the target in our task was due to enhanced spatial control (i.e., a change in the overall distribution of responses) following the long delay to testing. These results add spatial extinction and spontaneous recovery to the list of findings supporting the assertion that extinction involves new learning that attenuates the originally acquired response, and that original learning of the spatial relationship between paired events survives extinction. (PsycINFO Database Record

  2. Determining the extragalactic extinction law with SALT. II. Additional sample

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelman, Ido; Kniazev, Alexei Y; Vaisanen, Petri; Buckley, David A H; O'Donoghue, Darragh; Gulbis, Amanda; Hashimoto, Yas; Loaring, Nicola; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni; Sefako, Ramotholo

    2010-01-01

    We present new results from an on-going programme to study the dust extragalactic extinction law in E/S0 galaxies with dust lanes with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) during its performance-verification phase. The wavelength dependence of the dust extinction for seven galaxies is derived in six spectral bands ranging from the near-ultraviolet atmospheric cutoff to the near-infrared. The derivation of an extinction law is performed by fitting model galaxies to the unextinguished parts of the image in each spectral band, and subtracting from these the actual images. We compare our results with the derived extinction law in the Galaxy and find them to run parallel to the Galactic extinction curve with a mean total-to-selective extinction value of 2.71+-0.43. We use total optical extinction values to estimate the dust mass for each galaxy, compare these with dust masses derived from IRAS measurements, and find them to range from 10^4 to 10^7 Solar masses. We study the case of the well-known dust-lane ...

  3. Probing the Role of Carbon in the Interstellar Ultraviolet Extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Mishra, Ajay

    2015-01-01

    We probe the role of carbon in the ultraviolet (UV) extinction by examining the relations between the amount of carbon required to be locked up in dust [C/H]_dust with the 2175 Angstrom extinction bump and the far-UV extinction rise, based on an analysis of the extinction curves along 16 Galactic sightlines for which the gas-phase carbon abundance is known and the 2175 Angstrom extinction bump exhibits variable strengths and widths. We derive [C/H]_dust from the Kramers-Kronig relation which relates the wavelength-integrated extinction to the total dust volume. This approach is less model-dependent since it does not require the knowledge of the detailed optical properties and size distribution of the dust. We also derive [C/H]_dust from fitting the observed UV/optical/near-infrared extinction with a mixture of amorphous silicate and graphite. We find that the carbon depletion [C/H]_dust tends to correlate with the strength of the 2175 Angstrom bump, while the abundance of silicon depleted in dust shows no cor...

  4. Using M Dwarfs to Map Extinction in the Local Galaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, David; West, A. A.; Foster, J.

    2011-01-01

    We use spectra of more than 56,000 M dwarfs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to create a high-latitude extinction map of the local Galaxy. Our technique compares spectra from low-extinction lines of sight as determined by Schlegel, Finkbeiner, & Davis to other SDSS spectra in order to derive improved distances and accurate extinctions for the stars in the SDSS data release 7 M dwarf sample. Unlike most previous studies, which have used a two-color method to determine extinction, we fit extinction curves to fluxes across the entire spectral range from 5700 to 9200 angstroms for every star in our sample. Our result is an extinction map that extends from a few tens of pc to approximately 2 kpc from the Sun. We also use a similar technique to create a map of Rv values within approximately 1 kpc of the Sun and find that they are roughly consistent with the widely accepted diffuse interstellar medium value of 3.1. Using our extinction data, we derive a dust scale height for the local galaxy of 176 ± 15 parsecs.

  5. Extinction pattern of reef ecosystems in latest Permian

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU YaSheng; FAN JiaSong; JIANG HongXia; YANG Wan

    2007-01-01

    Studies of two Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) sections on top of a Changhsingian reef in Ziyun, Guizhou Province, southwestern China indicate that the end-Permian mass extinction of reef ecosystems occurred in two steps. The first step is the extinction of all stenotropic organisms such as calcisponges and fusulinids in the latest Permian (in the Clarkina yini conodont zone). The biota after the first extinction is simple, comprising eurytropic organisms including microgastropods, ostracods, and some small burrowing organisms, or only algal mats. At the beginning of the Early Triassic (I.e. the beginning of the Hindeodus parvus zone), the environments became anoxic, and the microgastropod dominated biota or algal mats disappeared, which constituted the second episode of the mass extinction. The biota after the second extinction comprises small spherical microproblematica, some kinds of specialized organisms tolerant of anoxic or oxygen-poor conditions. As the environments became oxygenated, the specialized biota was replaced by a microgastropod-dominated simple biota. When the environmental conditions improved further, the simple biota was replaced by a diverse biota with normal-sized ammonoids, bivalves, and gastropods, representing restoration of normal oceanic conditions. Comparison with PTB sections in Dolomites, Italy and Meishan, Zhejiang Province shows that non-reef ecosystems had a similar first episode of mass extinction in the latest Permian. In the case that oceanic anoxia happened, non-reef ecosystems had a second extinction episode similar to that of reef ecosystems.

  6. ON GALACTIC DENSITY MODELING IN THE PRESENCE OF DUST EXTINCTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bovy, Jo [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Rix, Hans-Walter; Schlafly, Edward F. [Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Green, Gregory M.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P., E-mail: bovy@astro.utoronto.ca [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-02-20

    Inferences about the spatial density or phase-space structure of stellar populations in the Milky Way require a precise determination of the effective survey volume. The volume observed by surveys such as Gaia or near-infrared spectroscopic surveys, which have good coverage of the Galactic midplane region, is highly complex because of the abundant small-scale structure in the three-dimensional interstellar dust extinction. We introduce a novel framework for analyzing the importance of small-scale structure in the extinction. This formalism demonstrates that the spatially complex effect of extinction on the selection function of a pencil-beam or contiguous sky survey is equivalent to a low-pass filtering of the extinction-affected selection function with the smooth density field. We find that the angular resolution of current 3D extinction maps is sufficient for analyzing Gaia sub-samples of millions of stars. However, the current distance resolution is inadequate and needs to be improved by an order of magnitude, especially in the inner Galaxy. We also present a practical and efficient method for properly taking the effect of extinction into account in analyses of Galactic structure through an effective selection function. We illustrate its use with the selection function of red-clump stars in APOGEE using and comparing a variety of current 3D extinction maps.

  7. The Internal Extinction Curve of NGC 6302 and its Extraordinary Spectrum

    CERN Document Server

    Groves, B A; Williams, R E; Hua, C T; Groves, Brent A.; Dopita, Michael A.; Williams, Robert E.; Hua, Chon-Trung

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we present a new method for obtaining the optical wavelength-dependent reddening function of planetary nebulae, using the nebular and stellar continuum. The data used was a spectrum of NGC 6302 obtained with a mean signal to noise of >10^2 A^-1 in the nebular continuum. With such a high S/N the continuum can be accurately compared with a theoretical model nebular plus stellar continuum. The nebular electron temperature and density used in the model are determined using ratios of prominent emission lines. The reddening function can then be obtained from the ratio of the theoretical and the observed continuum. We find that for NGC 6302, the visible to IR extinction law is indistinguishable from `standard' interstellar reddening, but that the UV extinction curve is much steeper than normal, suggesting that more small dust grains had been ejected into the nebula by the PN central star. Finally, using the extinction law that we have determined, we present a complete de--reddened line list of nearly 6...

  8. Probing the Role of Carbon in the Interstellar Ultraviolet Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Ajay; Li, Aigen

    2015-08-01

    We probe the role of carbon in the ultraviolet (UV) extinction by examining the relations between the amount of carbon required to be locked up in dust {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} with the 2175 \\mathringA extinction bump and the far-UV extinction rise, based on an analysis of the extinction curves along 16 Galactic sightlines for which the gas-phase carbon abundance is known and the 2175 \\mathringA extinction bump exhibits variable strengths and widths. We derive {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} from the Kramers-Kronig relation which relates the wavelength-integrated extinction to the total dust volume. This approach is less model-dependent since it does not require the knowledge of the detailed optical properties and size distribution of the dust.We also derive {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} from fitting the observed UV/optical/near-infrared extinction with a mixture of amorphous silicate and graphite. We find that the carbon depletion {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} tends to correlate with the strength of the 2175 \\mathringA bump, while the abundance of silicon depleted in dust shows no correlation with the 2175 \\mathringA bump. This supports graphite or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules as the possible carrier of the 2175 \\mathringA bump. We also see that {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} shows a trend of correlating with 1/{R}V, where RV is the total-to-selective extinction ratio, suggesting that the far-UV extinction is more likely produced by small carbon dust than by small silicate dust.

  9. 论远程电子评标的风险规避与防范%Risk Avoidance and Prevention of Remote Electronic Bid Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈迪宇

    2012-01-01

    远程电子评标具有评标电子化、评委异地化、平台虚拟化、组织远程化、监管网络化等特点,是电子招投标的发展方向。但在实践中存在缺乏法规支持、身份容易被冒用、网络环境复杂、难以组织协调、监管不到位等风险。通过健全立法、完善认证管理、加强预案演练、推行评标标准化建设、创新监管机制等措施能够进行有效的风险规避与防范。%Remote electronic bid evaluation has the features of evaluation electronically,off-site judges,virtual platform,remote organization and net work supervision,it is the development trend of electronic bidding.But there are some risks in practice,such as lacking of legislation support,identity easy to counterfeit,the complexity of the network environment,hard to organization,absence of regulation.Through strengthening legislation,perfecting certification management,reinforcing plans to drill,implementing bid evaluation standardization,innovating regulatory mechanism,the risks can be avoid and prevent.

  10. Evaluation of the use of electronic health data to classify four-year mortality risk for older adults undergoing screening colonoscopies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synnestvedt, Marie B; Weiner, Mark G

    2011-01-01

    Current cancer screening recommendations often apply coarse age cutoffs for screening requirements without regard to predicted life expectancy. Using these cutoffs, healthier older patients may be under-screened, and sicker younger patients may be screened too often. Mortality risk classification using EHR data could be used to tailor screening reminders to physicians in ways that better align screening recommendations with patients who are more likely to live long enough to benefit from early detection. We have evaluated the performance of an existing prognostic index for 4-year mortality using data readily available in the electronic health record (EHR), and investigated the effect of the index in retrospective cohorts of adults age 65 and older undergoing screening colonoscopy. Risk scores in this adaptation of a four-year prognostic index were found to be associated with actual death rates and consistent with mortality rates from a national sample. Our results demonstrate that data extracted from electronic health records can be used to classify mortality risk. With improvements, including extension to a 5-year mortality model with inclusion of additional variables and extension of variable definitions, informatics methods to implement mortality models may prove to be clinically useful in tailoring screening guidelines.

  11. The Extinction Toward the Galactic Bulge from RR Lyrae Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Kunder, Andrea; Cook, Kem H; Chaboyer, Brian

    2007-01-01

    We present mean reddenings toward 3525 RR0 Lyrae stars from the Galactic bulge fields of the MACHO Survey. These reddenings are determined using the color at minimum $V$-band light of the RR0 Lyrae stars themselves and are found to be in general agreement with extinction estimates at the same location obtained from other methods. Using 3256 stars located in the Galactic Bulge, we derive the selective extinction coefficient $R_{V,VR}=A_V/E(V-R) = 4.3 \\pm 0.2$. This value is what is expected for a standard extinction law with $R_{V,BV} = 3.1 \\pm 0.3$.

  12. Adaptation prevents the extinction of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii under toxic beryllium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Baselga-Cervera

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The current biodiversity crisis represents a historic challenge for natural communities: the environmental rate of change exceeds the population’s adaptation capability. Integrating both ecological and evolutionary responses is necessary to make reliable predictions regarding the loss of biodiversity. The race against extinction from an eco-evolutionary perspective is gaining importance in ecological risk assessment. Here, we performed a classical study of population dynamics—a fluctuation analysis—and evaluated the results from an adaption perspective. Fluctuation analysis, widely used with microorganisms, is an effective empirical procedure to study adaptation under strong selective pressure because it incorporates the factors that influence demographic, genetic and environmental changes. The adaptation of phytoplankton to beryllium (Be is of interest because human activities are increasing the concentration of Be in freshwater reserves; therefore, predicting the effects of human-induced pollutants is necessary for proper risk assessment. The fluctuation analysis was performed with phytoplankton, specifically, the freshwater microalgae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, under acute Be exposure. High doses of Be led to massive microalgae death; however, by conducting a fluctuation analysis experiment, we found that C. reinhardtii was able to adapt to 33 mg/l of Be due to pre-existing genetic variability. The rescuing adapting genotype presented a mutation rate of 9.61 × 10−6 and a frequency of 10.42 resistant cells per million wild-type cells. The genetic adaptation pathway that was experimentally obtained agreed with the theoretical models of evolutionary rescue (ER. Furthermore, the rescuing genotype presented phenotypic and physiologic differences from the wild-type genotype, was 25% smaller than the Be-resistant genotype and presented a lower fitness and quantum yield performance. The abrupt distinctions between the wild-type and the Be

  13. Preventing return of fear in an animal model of anxiety: additive effects of massive extinction and extinction in multiple contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborda, Mario A; Miller, Ralph R

    2013-06-01

    Fear conditioning and experimental extinction have been presented as models of anxiety disorders and exposure therapy, respectively. Moreover, the return of fear serves as a model of relapse after exposure therapy. Here we present two experiments, with rats as subjects in a lick suppression preparation, in which we assessed the additive effects of two different treatments to attenuate the return of fear. First, we evaluated whether two phenomena known to generate return of fear (i.e., spontaneous recovery and renewal) summate to produce a stronger reappearance of extinguished fear. At test, rats evaluated outside the extinction context following a long delay after extinction (i.e., a delayed context shift) exhibited greater return of extinguished fear than rats evaluated outside the extinction context alone, but return of extinguished fear following a delayed context shift did not significantly differ from the return of fear elicited in rats tested following a long delay after extinction alone. Additionally, extinction in multiple contexts and a massive extinction treatment each attenuated the strong return of fear produced by a delayed context shift. Moreover, the conjoint action of these treatments was significantly more successful in preventing the reappearance of extinguished fear, suggesting that extensive cue exposure administered in several different therapeutic settings has the potential to reduce relapse after therapy for anxiety disorders, more than either manipulation alone.

  14. Extinction and retrieval+extinction of conditioned fear differentially activate medial prefrontal cortex and amygdala in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjoo Joanne Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pairing a previously neutral conditioned stimulus (CS; e.g., a tone to an aversive unconditioned stimulus (US; e.g., a footshock leads to associative learning such that the tone alone comes to elicit a conditioned response (e.g., freezing. We have previously shown that an extinction session that occurs within the reconsolidation window (termed retrieval+extinction attenuates fear responding and prevents the return of fear in Pavlovian fear conditioning (Monfils et al., 2009. To date, the mechanisms that explain the different behavioral outcomes between standard extinction and retrieval+extinction remain poorly understood. Here we sought to examine the differential temporal engagement of specific neural systems by these 2 approaches using Arc catFISH (cellular compartment analysis of temporal activity using fluorescence in situ hybridization. Our results demonstrate that extinction and retrieval+extinction lead to differential patterns of expression, suggesting that they engage different networks. These findings provide insight into the neural mechanisms that allow extinction during reconsolidation to prevent the return of fear in rats.

  15. Mammal extinctions in the Vallesian (Upper Miocene)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agusti, J.; Moya-Sola, S.

    The term Vallesian was created by Crusafont (1950) to designate the first European Mammalian palaeofaunas containing the equid Hipparion, the remainder of the faunas being composed of typical elements coming from the Middle Miocene such as Micromeryx, Euprox, Sansanosmilus, Pseudaelurus, and Listriodon. Thus, the Aragonian-Vallesian boundary does not show a strong change among European Miocene mammalian faunas (Agusti et al., 1984). On the other hand, the Lower Vallesian/Upper Vallesian transition corresponds to a major biotic crisis. This boudnary is characterized by the disappearence of most of the Aragonian artiodactyl forms such as Protragocerus, Miotragocerus, Listriodon, Hyotherium, Parachleusastochoerus, etc. Among the rodents, this crisis affects the family Eomyidae and most of the cricetid and glirid species. On the other hand, a number of eastern elements appear in the area at the same time. This is the case of the suid Schizochoerus and the murid Progonomys. Other eastern forms are Tragoportax, Graecoryx, Adcrocuta, Paramachairodus, Microstonyx, etc. Most of these are typical elements of the next Mammal stage, the Turolian. Thus, whereas the Lower Vallesian fauna has a typical Aragonian composition except for Hipparion. After the Middle Vallesian event, the Upper Vallesian faunas are already largely Turolian in character. The possible factors involved in this extinction event are discussed.

  16. Life Extinctions due to Neutron Star Mergers

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon; Shaviv, N J; Dar, Arnon; Laor, Ari; Shaviv, Nir J.

    1996-01-01

    In a recent paper, Shaviv and Dar have shown that highly relativistic ejecta of high Z material from merger or accretion induced collapse of neutron stars can boost and beam star-light in dense stellar regions into cosmological gamma ray bursts (GRBs) whose predicted properties reproduce remarkably well the observed properties of GRBs. Generally, only a small fraction of the relativistic kinetic energy of the ejecta is converted into gamma rays and most of it is injected into the interstellar medium as a very powerful cosmic ray burst (CRB). Here we show that such CRBs can extinct life on Earth-like planets if they are closer than $\\sim 1 ~kpc$ from the merger/explosion. Such CRBs produce lethal fluxes of atmospheric muons at ground, underground and underwater. They also destroy the ozone layer, radioactivate the atmosphere and the surface of the planet and induce large climatic changes. They are enormously more violent than the GRBs alone or supernova explosions. In Milky-Way like galaxies they destroy life ...

  17. Are Isolated Indigenous Populations Headed toward Extinction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Walker

    Full Text Available At least 50 indigenous groups spread across lowland South America remain isolated and have only intermittent and mostly hostile interactions with the outside world. Except in emergency situations, the current policy of governments in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru towards isolated tribes is a "leave them alone" strategy, in which isolated groups are left uncontacted. However, these no-contact policies are based on the assumption that isolated populations are healthy and capable of persisting in the face of mounting external threats, and that they can maintain population viability in the long-term. Here, we test this assumption by tracking the sizes and movements of cleared horticultural areas made by 8 isolated groups over the last 10-14 years. We used deforestation data derived from remote sensing Landsat satellite sensors to identify clearings, and those were then validated and assessed with high-resolution imagery. We found only a single example of a relatively large and growing population (c. 50 cleared ha and 400 people, whereas all of the other 7 groups exhibited much smaller villages and gardens with no sizable growth through time. These results indicated that the smaller groups are critically endangered, and it prompts an urgent re-thinking of policies toward isolated populations, including plans for well-organized contacts that may help save lives and rescue isolated indigenous populations from imminent extinction.

  18. Giant comets and mass extinctions of life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napier, W. M.

    2015-03-01

    I find evidence for clustering in age of well-dated impact craters over the last 500 Myr. At least nine impact episodes are identified, with durations whose upper limits are set by the dating accuracy of the craters. Their amplitudes and frequency are inconsistent with an origin in asteroid breakups or Oort cloud disturbances, but are consistent with the arrival and disintegration in near-Earth orbits of rare, giant comets, mainly in transit from the Centaur population into the Jupiter family and Encke regions. About 1 in 10 Centaurs in Chiron-like orbits enter Earth-crossing epochs, usually repeatedly, each such epoch being generally of a few thousand years' duration. On time-scales of geological interest, debris from their breakup may increase the mass of the near-Earth interplanetary environment by two or three orders of magnitude, yielding repeated episodes of bombardment and stratospheric dusting. I find a strong correlation between these bombardment episodes and major biostratigraphic and geological boundaries, and propose that episodes of extinction are most effectively driven by prolonged encounters with meteoroid streams during bombardment episodes. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

  19. Partial reinforcement, extinction, and placebo analgesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au Yeung, Siu Tsin; Colagiuri, Ben; Lovibond, Peter F; Colloca, Luana

    2014-06-01

    Numerous studies indicate that placebo analgesia can be established via conditioning procedures. However, these studies have exclusively involved conditioning under continuous reinforcement. Thus, it is currently unknown whether placebo analgesia can be established under partial reinforcement and how durable any such effect would be. We tested this possibility using electrocutaneous pain in healthy volunteers. Sixty undergraduates received placebo treatment (activation of a sham electrode) under the guise of an analgesic trial. The participants were randomly allocated to different conditioning schedules, namely continuous reinforcement (CRF), partial reinforcement (PRF), or control (no conditioning). Conditioning was achieved by surreptitiously reducing pain intensity during training when the placebo was activated compared with when it was inactive. For the CRF group, the placebo was always followed by a surreptitious reduction in pain during training. For the PRF group, the placebo was followed by a reduction in pain stimulation on 62.5% of trials only. In the test phase, pain stimulation was equivalent across placebo and no placebo trials. Both CRF and PRF produced placebo analgesia, with the magnitude of initial analgesia being larger after CRF. However, although the placebo analgesia established under CRF extinguished during test phase, the placebo analgesia established under PRF did not. These findings indicate that PRF can induce placebo analgesia and that these effects are more resistant to extinction than those established via CRF. PRF may therefore reflect a novel way of enhancing clinical outcomes via the placebo effect.

  20. The dynamics of conditioning and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killeen, Peter R; Sanabria, Federico; Dolgov, Igor

    2009-10-01

    Pigeons responded to intermittently reinforced classical conditioning trials with erratic bouts of responding to the conditioned stimulus. Responding depended on whether the prior trial contained a peck, food, or both. A linear persistence-learning model moved pigeons into and out of a response state, and a Weibull distribution for number of within-trial responses governed in-state pecking. Variations of trial and intertrial durations caused correlated changes in rate and probability of responding and in model parameters. A novel prediction--in the protracted absence of food, response rates can plateau above zero--was validated. The model predicted smooth acquisition functions when instantiated with the probability of food but a more accurate jagged learning curve when instantiated with trial-to-trial records of reinforcement. The Skinnerian parameter was dominant only when food could be accelerated or delayed by pecking. These experiments provide a framework for trial-by-trial accounts of conditioning and extinction that increases the information available from the data, permitting such accounts to comment more definitively on complex contemporary models of momentum and conditioning.