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Sample records for extinction risk electronic

  1. Metapopulation extinction risk: dispersal's duplicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Kevin

    2009-09-01

    Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation's extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation's extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.

  2. Biological correlates of extinction risk in bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kate E; Purvis, Andy; Gittleman, John L

    2003-04-01

    We investigated patterns and processes of extinction and threat in bats using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach. Of nearly 1,000 species worldwide, 239 are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and 12 are extinct. Small geographic ranges and low wing aspect ratios are independently found to predict extinction risk in bats, which explains 48% of the total variance in IUCN assessments of threat. The pattern and correlates of extinction risk in the two bat suborders are significantly different. A higher proportion (4%) of megachiropteran species have gone extinct in the last 500 years than microchiropteran bats (0.3%), and a higher proportion is currently at risk of extinction (Megachiroptera: 34%; Microchiroptera: 22%). While correlates of microchiropteran extinction risk are the same as in the order as a whole, megachiropteran extinction is correlated more with reproductive rate and less with wing morphology. Bat extinction risk is not randomly distributed phylogenetically: closely related species have more similar levels of threat than would be expected if extinction risk were random. Given the unbalanced nature of the evolutionary diversification of bats, it is probable that the amount of phylogenetic diversity lost if currently threatened taxa disappear may be greater than in other clades with numerically more threatened species.

  3. Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana C Vamosi

    Full Text Available The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

  4. Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vamosi, Jana C; Vamosi, Steven M

    2008-01-01

    The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change) are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction) and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

  5. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  6. Elevational distribution and extinction risk in birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel L White

    Full Text Available Mountainous regions are hotspots of terrestrial biodiversity. Unlike islands, which have been the focus of extensive research on extinction dynamics, fewer studies have examined mountain ranges even though they face increasing threats from human pressures - notably habitat conversion and climate change. Limits to the taxonomic and geographical extent and resolution of previously available information have precluded an explicit assessment of the relative role of elevational distribution in determining extinction risk. We use a new global species-level avian database to quantify the influence of elevational distribution (range, maximum and midpoint on extinction risk in birds at the global scale. We also tested this relationship within biogeographic realms, higher taxonomic levels, and across phylogenetic contrasts. Potential confounding variables (i.e. phylogenetic, distributional, morphological, life history and niche breadth were also tested and controlled for. We show that the three measures of elevational distribution are strong negative predictors of avian extinction risk, with elevational range comparable and complementary to that of geographical range size. Extinction risk was also found to be positively associated with body weight, development and adult survival, but negatively associated with reproduction and niche breadth. The robust and consistent findings from this study demonstrate the importance of elevational distribution as a key driver of variation in extinction dynamics in birds. Our results also highlight elevational distribution as a missing criterion in current schemes for quantifying extinction risk and setting species conservation priorities in birds. Further research is recommended to test for generality across non-avian taxa, which will require an advance in our knowledge of species' current elevational ranges and increased efforts to digitise and centralise such data.

  7. Extinction risk under coloured environmental noise

    OpenAIRE

    Heino, M; Ripa, Jörgen; Kaitala, V

    2000-01-01

    Positively autocorrelated red environmental noise is characterized by a strong dependence of expected sample variance on sample length. This dependence has to be taken into account when assessing extinction risk under red and white uncorrelated environmental noise. To facilitate a comparison between red and white noise, their expected variances can be scaled to be equal, but only at a chosen time scale. We show with a simple one-dimensional population dynamics model that the different but equ...

  8. Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei, Fangliang

    2012-05-01

    Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

  9. Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C; Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P; Byrnes, Jarrett E; Finkel, Zoe V; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M

    2015-05-01

    Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Many-beam electron extinction distances in zirconium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cann, C.D.

    1977-05-01

    Many-beam extinction distances have been calculated for twenty-two of the lowest order reflections in zirconium. Ten beams comprising the directly transmitted and the nine lowest order systematic reflections were included in each calculation. Extinction distances for each reflection were determined for electron accelerating voltages of 100 and 200 kV, both at the exact Bragg condition and at deviations up to two Bragg angles from this condition. (author)

  11. Variation in extinction risk among birds: chance or evolutionary predisposition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, P. M.; Owens, I. P. F.

    1997-01-01

    Collar et al. (1994) estimate that of the 9,672 extant species of bird, 1,111 are threatened by extinction. Here, we test whether these threatened species are simply a random sample of birds, or whether there is something about their biology that predisposes them to extinction. We ask three specific questions. First, is extinction risk randomly distributed among families? Second, which families, if any, contain more, or less, threatened species than would be expected by chance? Third, is variation between taxa in extinction risk associated with variation in either body size or fecundity? Extinction risk is not randomly distributed among families. The families which contain significantly more threatened species than expected are the parrots (Psittacidae), pheasants and allies (Phasianidae), albatrosses and allies (Procellariidae), rails (Rallidae), cranes (Gruidae), cracids (Cracidae), megapodes (Megapodidae) and pigeons (Columbidae). The only family which contains significantly fewer threatened species than expected is the woodpeckers (Picidae). Extinction risk is also not distributed randomly with respect to fecundity or body size. Once phylogeny has been controlled for, increases in extinction risk are independently associated with increases in body size and decreases in fecundity. We suggest that this is because low rates of fecundity, which evolved many tens of millions of years ago, predisposed certain lineages to extinction. Low-fecundity populations take longer to recover if they are reduced to small sizes and are, therefore, more likely to go extinct if an external force causes an increase in the rate of mortality, thereby perturbing the natural balance between fecundity and mortality.

  12. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana D Davidson

    Full Text Available Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial

  13. Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

    2017-01-01

    Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the

  14. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    OpenAIRE

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Bielby, Jon; Schmidtlein, Sebastian; Bosch, Jaime; Garner, Trenton W. J.; Veith, Michael; Walker, Susan; Fisher, Matthew C.; Lötters, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history varia...

  15. Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-12-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Protection of Marine Fish Stocks at Risk of Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.A. Musick; S.A. Berkeley; G.M. Cailliet; M. Camhi; G. Huntsman; M. Nammack; Melvin L. Warren

    2000-01-01

    The American Fisheries Society (AFS) recommends that registory agencies closely scrutinize both marine fish and invertebrate stocks that may be at risk of extinction and take remedial action before populations are threatened or endungered. Initial AFS analyses of marine stocks at risk in North America show at least four primary geographic "hot spots" with...

  17. Quantification of habitat fragmentation reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crooks, Kevin R.; Burdett, Christopher L.; Theobald, David M.; King, Sarah R. B.; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi

    2017-01-01

    Although habitat fragmentation is often assumed to be a primary driver of extinction, global patterns of fragmentation and its relationship to extinction risk have not been consistently quantified for any major animal taxon. We developed high-resolution habitat fragmentation models and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation on the world’s terrestrial mammals, including 4,018 species across 26 taxonomic Orders. Results demonstrate that species with more fragmentation are at greater risk of extinction, even after accounting for the effects of key macroecological predictors, such as body size and geographic range size. Species with higher fragmentation had smaller ranges and a lower proportion of high-suitability habitat within their range, and most high-suitability habitat occurred outside of protected areas, further elevating extinction risk. Our models provide a quantitative evaluation of extinction risk assessments for species, allow for identification of emerging threats in species not classified as threatened, and provide maps of global hotspots of fragmentation for the world’s terrestrial mammals. Quantification of habitat fragmentation will help guide threat assessment and strategic priorities for global mammal conservation. PMID:28673992

  18. Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin C Harding

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

  19. The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

    OpenAIRE

    Purcell, Steven W.; Polidoro, Beth A.; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U.; Mercier, Annie

    2014-01-01

    Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primari...

  20. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  1. Extinction Risk in Successional Landscapes Subject to Catastrophic Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Boughton

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the thesis that stochasticity in successional-disturbance systems can be an agent of species extinction. The analysis uses a simple model of patch dynamics for seral stages in an idealized landscape; each seral stage is assumed to support a specialist biota. The landscape as a whole is characterized by a mean patch birth rate, mean patch size, and mean lifetime for each patch type. Stochasticity takes three forms: (1 patch stochasticity is randomness in the birth times and sizes of individual patches, (2 landscape stochasticity is variation in the annual means of birth rate and size, and (3 turnover mode is whether a patch is eliminated by disturbance or by successional change. Analytical and numerical analyses of the model suggest that landscape stochasticity is the most important agent. Landscape stochasticity increases the extinction risk to species by increasing the risk that the habitat will fluctuate to zero, by reducing the mean abundance of species, and by increasing the variance in species abundance. The highest risk was found to occur in species that inhabit patches with short lifetimes. The results of this general model suggest an important mechanism by which climate change threatens biodiversity: an increase in the frequency of extreme climate events will probably cause pulses of disturbance during some time periods; these in turn would cause wider fluctuations in annual disturbance rates and thus increase the overall level of landscape stochasticity. However, the model also suggests that humans can manipulate landscape stochasticity to reduce risk. In particular, if managed disturbances were more evenly distributed in time, attrition of the regional biota might be prevented. Other work on the connection between patch dynamics and extinction risk assumes the absence of landscape stochasticity and thus overlooks an important component of risk to biodiversity.

  2. Global ocean conveyor lowers extinction risk in the deep sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Lea-Anne; Frank, Norbert; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wienberg, Claudia; Robinson, Laura; van de Flierdt, Tina; Dahl, Mikael; Douarin, Mélanie; Morrison, Cheryl L.; López Correa, Matthias; Rogers, Alex D.; Ruckelshausen, Mario; Roberts, J. Murray

    2014-06-01

    General paradigms of species extinction risk are urgently needed as global habitat loss and rapid climate change threaten Earth with what could be its sixth mass extinction. Using the stony coral Lophelia pertusa as a model organism with the potential for wide larval dispersal, we investigated how the global ocean conveyor drove an unprecedented post-glacial range expansion in Earth's largest biome, the deep sea. We compiled a unique ocean-scale dataset of published radiocarbon and uranium-series dates of fossil corals, the sedimentary protactinium-thorium record of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, authigenic neodymium and lead isotopic ratios of circulation pathways, and coral biogeography, and integrated new Bayesian estimates of historic gene flow. Our compilation shows how the export of Southern Ocean and Mediterranean waters after the Younger Dryas 11.6 kyr ago simultaneously triggered two dispersal events in the western and eastern Atlantic respectively. Each pathway injected larvae from refugia into ocean currents powered by a re-invigorated AMOC that led to the fastest postglacial range expansion ever recorded, covering 7500 km in under 400 years. In addition to its role in modulating global climate, our study illuminates how the ocean conveyor creates broad geographic ranges that lower extinction risk in the deep sea.

  3. Trends in extinction risk for imperiled species in Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett Favaro

    Full Text Available Protecting and promoting recovery of species at risk of extinction is a critical component of biodiversity conservation. In Canada, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC determines whether species are at risk of extinction or extirpation, and has conducted these assessments since 1977. We examined trends in COSEWIC assessments to identify whether at-risk species that have been assessed more than once tended to improve, remain constant, or deteriorate in status, as a way of assessing the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation in Canada. Of 369 species that met our criteria for examination, 115 deteriorated, 202 remained unchanged, and 52 improved in status. Only 20 species (5.4% improved to the point where they were 'not at risk', and five of those were due to increased sampling efforts rather than an increase in population size. Species outcomes were also dependent on the severity of their initial assessment; for example, 47% of species that were initially listed as special concern deteriorated between assessments. After receiving an at-risk assessment by COSEWIC, a species is considered for listing under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA, which is the primary national tool that mandates protection for at-risk species. We examined whether SARA-listing was associated with improved COSEWIC assessment outcomes relative to unlisted species. Of 305 species that had multiple assessments and were SARA-listed, 221 were listed at a level that required identification and protection of critical habitat; however, critical habitat was fully identified for only 56 of these species. We suggest that the Canadian government should formally identify and protect critical habitat, as is required by existing legislation. In addition, our finding that at-risk species in Canada rarely recover leads us to recommend that every effort be made to actively prevent species from becoming at-risk in the first place.

  4. The three-quarter power scaling of extinction risk in Late Pleistocene mammals, and a new theory of the size selectivity of extinction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polishchuk, L.

    2010-01-01

    Questions: What is the pattern of body mass versus extinction risk in the Late Pleistocene extinctions of mammals, both qualitatively and quantitatively? Are there patterns that relate extinction risk to the well-known allometries of body mass with population density or population growth rate?

  5. Extinction risk and conservation of the world's sharks and rays

    OpenAIRE

    Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Fowler, Sarah L.; Musick, John A.; Cavanagh, Rachel D.; Kyne, Peter M.; Harrison, Lucy R.; Carlson, John K.; Davidson, Lindsay N. K.; Fordham, Sonja V.; Francis, Malcolm P.; Pollock, Caroline M.; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.; Burgess, George H.; Carpenter, Kent E.; Compagno, Leonard J. V.

    2013-01-01

    eLife digest Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from overfishing, climate change, habitat destruction and pollution. These pressures have led to documented declines of some fishes in some places, such as those living in coral reefs and on the high seas. However, it is not clear whether these population declines are isolated one-off examples or, instead, if they are sufficiently widespread to risk the extinction of large numbers of species. Most fishes have a skeleton that is made of bone, bu...

  6. Reducing the extinction risk of stochastic populations via nondemographic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

    2018-02-01

    We consider nondemographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme m A →k A but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such nondemographic noise can greatly reduce the population's extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.

  7. Linking Indices for Biodiversity Monitoring to Extinction Risk Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-01-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de Extinción Resumen Los índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los

  8. The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin G Boyles

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk.

  9. Diversity, extinction risk and conservation of Malaysian fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, V C; Lee, P K Y; Lau, C M

    2010-06-01

    A total of 1951 species of freshwater and marine fishes belonging to 704 genera and 186 families are recorded in Malaysia. Almost half (48%) are currently threatened to some degree, while nearly one third (27%) mostly from the marine and coral habitats require urgent scientific studies to evaluate their status. Freshwater habitats encompass the highest percentage of threatened fish species (87%) followed by estuarine habitats (66%). Of the 32 species of highly threatened (HT) species, 16 are freshwater and 16 are largely marine-euryhaline species. Fish extinctions in Malaysia are confined to two freshwater species, but both freshwater and marine species are being increasingly threatened by largely habitat loss or modification (76%), overfishing (27%) and by-catch (23%). The most important threat to freshwater fishes is habitat modification and overfishing, while 35 species are threatened due to their endemism. Brackish-water, euryhaline and marine fishes are threatened mainly by overfishing, by-catch and habitat modification. Sedimentation (pollution) additionally threatens coral-reef fishes. The study provides recommendations to governments, fish managers, scientists and stakeholders to address the increasing and unabated extinction risks faced by the Malaysian fish fauna.

  10. Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

    2008-08-01

    We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

  11. Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide.

  12. Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J

    2018-05-01

    The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation

    OpenAIRE

    Malarz, K.

    2006-01-01

    The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

  14. The risk of extinction - the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malarz, Krzysztof

    2007-04-01

    The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.

  15. Retabulation of space group extinctions for electron diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, P.; Tanaka, M.

    1989-01-01

    The space group tables previously published by one of the authors and others are here presented in a revised and compacted form designed to make for compatability with existing tables for X-ray diffraction. 136 of the 230 space groups are subject to dynamic extinctions due to glide planes and screw axes, and the observables from these space groups in specific settings are tabulated. Tabs

  16. Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard K B Jenkins

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in

  17. Extinction Risks and the Conservation of Madagascar's Reptiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Richard K. B.; Tognelli, Marcelo F.; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L.; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R.; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D.; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F.; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H.; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A.; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J. Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H.; Randrianirina, Jasmin E.; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P.; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P.; Yoder, Anne D.; Vences, Miguel

    2014-01-01

    Background An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. Methodology/Principal Findings Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. Conclusions/Significance With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and

  18. Extinction risks and the conservation of Madagascar's reptiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Richard K B; Tognelli, Marcelo F; Bowles, Philip; Cox, Neil; Brown, Jason L; Chan, Lauren; Andreone, Franco; Andriamazava, Alain; Andriantsimanarilafy, Raphali R; Anjeriniaina, Mirana; Bora, Parfait; Brady, Lee D; Hantalalaina, Elisoa F; Glaw, Frank; Griffiths, Richard A; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Katariya, Vineet; Rabibisoa, Nirhy H; Rafanomezantsoa, Jeannot; Rakotomalala, Domoina; Rakotondravony, Hery; Rakotondrazafy, Ny A; Ralambonirainy, Johans; Ramanamanjato, Jean-Baptiste; Randriamahazo, Herilala; Randrianantoandro, J Christian; Randrianasolo, Harison H; Randrianirina, Jasmin E; Randrianizahana, Hiarinirina; Raselimanana, Achille P; Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa; Ratsoavina, Fanomezana M; Raxworthy, Christopher J; Robsomanitrandrasana, Eric; Rollande, Finoana; van Dijk, Peter P; Yoder, Anne D; Vences, Miguel

    2014-01-01

    An understanding of the conservation status of Madagascar's endemic reptile species is needed to underpin conservation planning and priority setting in this global biodiversity hotspot, and to complement existing information on the island's mammals, birds and amphibians. We report here on the first systematic assessment of the extinction risk of endemic and native non-marine Malagasy snakes, lizards, turtles and tortoises. Species range maps from The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were analysed to determine patterns in the distribution of threatened reptile species. These data, in addition to information on threats, were used to identify priority areas and actions for conservation. Thirty-nine percent of the data-sufficient Malagasy reptiles in our analyses are threatened with extinction. Areas in the north, west and south-east were identified as having more threatened species than expected and are therefore conservation priorities. Habitat degradation caused by wood harvesting and non-timber crops was the most pervasive threat. The direct removal of reptiles for international trade and human consumption threatened relatively few species, but were the primary threats for tortoises. Nine threatened reptile species are endemic to recently created protected areas. With a few alarming exceptions, the threatened endemic reptiles of Madagascar occur within the national network of protected areas, including some taxa that are only found in new protected areas. Threats to these species, however, operate inside and outside protected area boundaries. This analysis has identified priority sites for reptile conservation and completes the conservation assessment of terrestrial vertebrates in Madagascar which will facilitate conservation planning, monitoring and wise-decision making. In sharp contrast with the amphibians, there is significant reptile diversity and regional endemism in the southern and western regions of Madagascar and this study highlights the importance of

  19. Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwager, Monika; Johst, Karin; Jeltsch, Florian

    2006-06-01

    Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations (red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated (white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme (catastrophic) events can occur (strong noise) or sensitivity is high (overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk.

  20. Extinction risk is most acute for the world's largest and smallest vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripple, William J; Wolf, Christopher; Newsome, Thomas M; Hoffmann, Michael; Wirsing, Aaron J; McCauley, Douglas J

    2017-10-03

    Extinction risk in vertebrates has been linked to large body size, but this putative relationship has only been explored for select taxa, with variable results. Using a newly assembled and taxonomically expansive database, we analyzed the relationships between extinction risk and body mass (27,647 species) and between extinction risk and range size (21,294 species) for vertebrates across six main classes. We found that the probability of being threatened was positively and significantly related to body mass for birds, cartilaginous fishes, and mammals. Bimodal relationships were evident for amphibians, reptiles, and bony fishes. Most importantly, a bimodal relationship was found across all vertebrates such that extinction risk changes around a body mass breakpoint of 0.035 kg, indicating that the lightest and heaviest vertebrates have elevated extinction risk. We also found range size to be an important predictor of the probability of being threatened, with strong negative relationships across nearly all taxa. A review of the drivers of extinction risk revealed that the heaviest vertebrates are most threatened by direct killing by humans. By contrast, the lightest vertebrates are most threatened by habitat loss and modification stemming especially from pollution, agricultural cropping, and logging. Our results offer insight into halting the ongoing wave of vertebrate extinctions by revealing the vulnerability of large and small taxa, and identifying size-specific threats. Moreover, they indicate that, without intervention, anthropogenic activities will soon precipitate a double truncation of the size distribution of the world's vertebrates, fundamentally reordering the structure of life on our planet.

  1. Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter S Rand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

  2. DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

  3. Global patterns of extinction risk in marine and non-marine systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Thomas J; Mindel, Beth L

    2015-02-16

    Despite increasing concern over the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems, extinction in the sea remains scarce: 19-24 out of a total of >850 recorded extinctions implies a 9-fold lower marine extinction rate compared to non-marine systems. The extent of threats faced by marine systems, and their resilience to them, receive considerable attention, but the detectability of marine extinctions is less well understood. Before its extinction or threat status is recorded, a species must be both taxonomically described and then formally assessed; lower rates of either process for marine species could thus impact patterns of extinction risk, especially as species missing from taxonomic inventories may often be more vulnerable than described species. We combine data on taxonomic description with conservation assessments from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to test these possibilities across almost all marine and non-marine eukaryotes. We find that the 9-fold lower rate of recorded extinctions and 4-fold lower rate of ongoing extinction risk across marine species can be explained in part by differences in the proportion of species assessed by the IUCN (3% cf. 4% of non-marine species). Furthermore, once taxonomic knowledge and conservation assessments pass a threshold level, differences in extinction risk between marine and non-marine groups largely disappear. Indeed, across the best-studied taxonomic groups, there is no difference between marine and non-marine systems, with on average between 20% and 25% of species being threatened with extinction, regardless of realm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Steven W; Polidoro, Beth A; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U; Mercier, Annie

    2014-04-22

    Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.

  5. Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainard, Russell E; Weijerman, Mariska; Eakin, C Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A; Dunlap, Matthew J; Birkeland, Charles

    2013-12-01

    Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats

  6. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

  7. Extinction Risk of Phytoplankton Species to Potential Killing Mechanisms at the Cretaceous-Paleogene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bralower, T. J.; Schueth, J.; Jiang, S.

    2013-05-01

    The impact at Chicxulub caused catastrophic changes in marine habitats including extended darkness, ocean acidification and eutrophication. These changes were devastating to some groups of phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain while others escaped virtually unscathed. For example, diatoms had ~85% survival across the boundary and dinoflagellates actually increased in diversity. These non-calcareous plankton most likely survived due to their adaptation to high-stress environments and their ability to form spores and resting cysts. The calcareous nannoplankton, however, were decimated with approximately 85% of genera and 93% of species going extinct. Nannoplankton generally lack the ability to encyst and thus, as a group, would have been susceptible to darkness, ocean acidification and eutrophication. However, we still do not fully understand why certain nannofossil taxa survived while others went extinct. Extinction risk, the projected susceptibility of a taxon to extinction based on its ecology and ability to adapt, is a concept that is widely applied to extant species and higher order fossil groups, but not to phytoplankton. This concept is a useful for probing the selectivity of ancient species to mass extinction. Determining the extinction risk of latest Maastrichtian nannoplankton species would be a step towards understanding the selection of survivors. The deep-sea record contains a remarkable archive of nannoplankton extinction and recovery across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. The recovery was geologically extended, enabling detailed comparisons between the ocean basins. A large, global database of assemblages had led to the discovery that the Northern Hemisphere oceans suffered higher nannoplankton extinction rates than the Southern Hemisphere with an ecological "crisis" that lasted for approximately 350 thousand years after the impact. In addition, incumbency played a major role in the origination of new species. Since extinction almost

  8. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  9. Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Kotiaho, Janne S.; Kaitala, Veijo; Komonen, Atte; Päivinen, Jussi

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the ultimate causes of population declines and extinction is vital in our quest to stop the currently rampant biodiversity loss. Comparison of ecological characteristics between threatened and nonthreatened species may reveal these ultimate causes. Here, we report an analysis of ecological characteristics of 23 threatened and 72 nonthreatened butterfly species. Our analysis reveals that threatened butterflies are characterized by narrow niche breadth, restricted resource distrib...

  10. Phylogenetic patterns of extinction risk in the eastern arc ecosystems, an African biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yessoufou, Kowiyou; Daru, Barnabas H; Davies, T Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits) in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.

  11. Phylogenetic patterns of extinction risk in the eastern arc ecosystems, an African biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowiyou Yessoufou

    Full Text Available There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.

  12. Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hwanseok; Schuldt, Jonathon P

    2017-09-01

    Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species' extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A-E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single-event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Rethinking Trade-Driven Extinction Risk in Marine and Terrestrial Megafauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClenachan, Loren; Cooper, Andrew B; Dulvy, Nicholas K

    2016-06-20

    Large animals hunted for the high value of their parts (e.g., elephant ivory and shark fins) are at risk of extinction due to both intensive international trade pressure and intrinsic biological sensitivity. However, the relative role of trade, particularly in non-perishable products, and biological factors in driving extinction risk is not well understood [1-4]. Here we identify a taxonomically diverse group of >100 marine and terrestrial megafauna targeted for international luxury markets; estimate their value across three points of sale; test relationships among extinction risk, high value, and body size; and quantify the effects of two mitigating factors: poaching fines and geographic range size. We find that body size is the principal driver of risk for lower value species, but that this biological pattern is eliminated above a value threshold, meaning that the most valuable species face a high extinction risk regardless of size. For example, once mean product values exceed US$12,557 kg(-1), body size no longer drives risk. Total value scales with size for marine animals more strongly than for terrestrial animals, incentivizing the hunting of large marine individuals and species. Poaching fines currently have little effect on extinction risk; fines would need to be increased 10- to 100-fold to be effective. Large geographic ranges reduce risk for terrestrial, but not marine, species, whose ranges are ten times greater. Our results underscore both the evolutionary and ecosystem consequences of targeting large marine animals and the need to geographically scale up and prioritize conservation of high-value marine species to avoid extinction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Interventions for reducing extinction risk in chytridiomycosis-threatened amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheele, Ben C; Hunter, David A; Grogan, Laura F; Berger, Lee; Kolby, Jon E; McFadden, Michael S; Marantelli, Gerry; Skerratt, Lee F; Driscoll, Don A

    2014-10-01

    Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large-scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease-free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease-associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  16. Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    2011-01-01

    The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

  17. Predictors of extinction risk of passerine birds in a Central European country

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koleček, Jaroslav; Albrecht, Tomáš; Reif, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 5 (2014), s. 498-506 ISSN 1367-9430 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : red list * life history * habitat specialization * distribution * climate change * threatened species * extinction risk * passerine Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 2.852, year: 2014

  18. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike S Fowler

    Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

  19. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

  20. Elemental conservation units: communicating extinction risk without dictating targets for protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Chris C; Gross, Mart R

    2008-02-01

    Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.

  1. Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souther, Sara; McGraw, James B

    Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous

  2. A GIS-based comparison of the Mexican national and IUCN methods for determining extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo, Teresa P Feria; Olson, Mark E; García-Mendoza, Abisaí; Solano, Eloy

    2009-10-01

    The national systems used in the evaluation of extinction risk are often touted as more readily applied and somehow more regionally appropriate than the system of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). We compared risk assessments of the Mexican national system (method for evaluation of risk of extinction of wild species [MER]) with the IUCN system for the 16 Polianthes taxa (Agavaceae), a genus of plants with marked variation in distribution sizes. We used a novel combination of herbarium data, geographic information systems (GIS), and species distribution models to provide rapid, repeatable estimates of extinction risk. Our GIS method showed that the MER and the IUCN system use similar data. Our comparison illustrates how the IUCN method can be applied even when all desirable data are not available, and that the MER offers no special regional advantage with respect to the IUCN regional system. Instead, our results coincided, with both systems identifying 14 taxa of conservation concern and the remaining two taxa of low risk, largely because both systems use similar information. An obstacle for the application of the MER is that there are no standards for quantifying the criteria of habitat condition and intrinsic biological vulnerability. If these impossible-to-quantify criteria are left out, what are left are geographical distribution and the impact of human activity, essentially the considerations we were able to assess for the IUCN method. Our method has the advantage of making the IUCN criteria easy to apply, and because each step can be standardized between studies, it ensures greater comparability of extinction risk estimates among taxa.

  3. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody Steven; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines....... However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth....

  4. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.

  5. Body Size, Extinction Risk and Knowledge Bias in New World Snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Bruno; Villalobos, Fabricio; Rodríguez, Miguel Ángel; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2014-01-01

    Extinction risk and body size have been found to be related in various vertebrate groups, with larger species being more at risk than smaller ones. We checked whether this was also the case for snakes by investigating extinction risk–body size relationships in the New World's Colubroidea species. We used the IUCN Red List risk categories to assign each species to one of two broad levels of threat (Threatened and Non-Threatened) or to identify it as either Data Deficient or Not-Evaluated by the IUCN. We also included the year of description of each species in our analysis as this could affect the level of threat assigned to it (earlier described species had more time to gather information about them, which might have facilitated their evaluation). Also, species detectability could be a function of body size, with larger species tending to be described earlier, which could have an impact in extinction risk–body size relationships. We found a negative relationship between body size and description year, with large-bodied species being described earlier. Description year also varied among risk categories, with Non-Threatened species being described earlier than Threatened species and both species groups earlier than Data Deficient species. On average, Data Deficient species also presented smaller body sizes, while no size differences were detected between Threatened and Non-Threatened species. So it seems that smaller body sizes are related with species detectability, thus potentially affecting both when a species is described (smaller species tend to be described more recently) as well as the amount of information gathered about it (Data Deficient species tend to be smaller). Our data also indicated that if Data Deficient species were to be categorized as Threatened in the future, snake body size and extinction risk would be negatively related, contrasting with the opposite pattern commonly observed in other vertebrate groups. PMID:25409293

  6. Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gärdenfors, Ulf; Keith, David A.; Punt, André E.; Regan, Helen M.; Böhm, Monika; Hedges, Simon; Seddon, Mary; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steven P.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2016-01-01

    The identification of species at risk of extinction is a central goal of conservation. As the use of data compiled for IUCN Red List assessments expands, a number of misconceptions regarding the purpose, application and use of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria have arisen. We outline five such classes of misconception; the most consequential drive proposals for adapted versions of the criteria, rendering assessments among species incomparable. A key challenge for the future will be to recognize the point where understanding has developed so markedly that it is time for the next generation of the Red List criteria. We do not believe we are there yet but, recognizing the need for scrutiny and continued development of Red Listing, conclude by suggesting areas where additional research could be valuable in improving the understanding of extinction risk among species. PMID:27072401

  7. Phylogenetic Patterns of Extinction Risk in the Eastern Arc Ecosystems, an African Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Yessoufou, Kowiyou; Daru, Barnabas H.; Davies, T. Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains - an important African biodiversity hotspot - and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ...

  8. Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibold, Sebastian; Brandl, Roland; Buse, Jörn; Hothorn, Torsten; Schmidl, Jürgen; Thorn, Simon; Müller, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large-scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red-list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional-odds linear mixed-effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red-list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad-leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad-leaved forests to dense conifer-dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad-leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Distribution, ecology, life history, genetic variation, and risk of extinction of nonhuman primates from Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María E Zaldívar

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We examined the association between geographic distribution, ecological traits, life history, genetic diversity, and risk of extinction in nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica. All of the current nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica are included in the study; spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi, howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata, capuchins (Cebus capucinus, and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri oerstedii. Geographic distribution was characterized accessing existing databases. Data on ecology and life history traits were obtained through a literature review. Genetic diversity was characterized using isozyme electrophoresis. Risk of extinction was assessed from the literature. We found that species differed in all these traits. Using these data, we conducted a Pearson correlation between risk of extinction and ecological and life history traits, and genetic variation, for widely distributed species. We found a negative association between risk of extinction and population birth and growth rates; indicating that slower reproducing species had a greater risk of extinction. We found a positive association between genetic variation and risk of extinction; i.e., species showing higher genetic variation had a greater risk of extinction. The relevance of these traits for conservation efforts is discussed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 52(3: 679-693. Epub 2004 Dic 15.Se estudió la asociación entre la distribución geográfica, algunos rasgos ecológicos, las historias de vida, la diversidad genética y el riesgo de extinción, en primates no humanos de Costa Rica. Se incluyen todas las especies de primates no humanos del país: los monos araña (Ateles geoffroyi, congo (Alouatta palliata, cara blanca (Cebus capucinus, y tití (Saimiri oerstedii. La distribución geográfica se caracterizó utilizando principalmente bases de datos existentes. Se obtuvo información acerca de sus características ecológicas y de historias de vida mediante una revisión bibliogr

  10. Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier López-Upton

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

  11. Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earnhardt, Joanne M; Thompson, Steven D; Faust, Lisa J

    2009-05-01

    The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population.

  12. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth A Polidoro

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  13. The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

    2010-04-08

    Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

  14. Living on the edge: assessing the extinction risk of critically endangered Bonelli's eagle in Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascual López-López

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The population of Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli's eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity, and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population's fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli's eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate λ>1. In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species

  15. Structural complexity, movement bias, and metapopulation extinction risk in dendritic ecological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2011-01-01

    Spatial complexity in metacommunities can be separated into 3 main components: size (i.e., number of habitat patches), spatial arrangement of habitat patches (network topology), and diversity of habitat patch types. Much attention has been paid to lattice-type networks, such as patch-based metapopulations, but interest in understanding ecological networks of alternative geometries is building. Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) include some increasingly threatened ecological systems, such as caves and streams. The restrictive architecture of dendritic ecological networks might have overriding implications for species persistence. I used a modeling approach to investigate how number and spatial arrangement of habitat patches influence metapopulation extinction risk in 2 DENs of different size and topology. Metapopulation persistence was higher in larger networks, but this relationship was mediated by network topology and the dispersal pathways used to navigate the network. Larger networks, especially those with greater topological complexity, generally had lower extinction risk than smaller and less-complex networks, but dispersal bias and magnitude affected the shape of this relationship. Applying these general results to real systems will require empirical data on the movement behavior of organisms and will improve our understanding of the implications of network complexity on population and community patterns and processes.

  16. The effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk: Mechanisms and synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H. Reed

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Across the globe, much current research reflects concerns over the effect of habitat fragmentation on the viability of species and populations. This is an immediate and important concern for the Kingdom of Thailand, where decisions about land use are at a critical juncture. Thailand is in danger of losing species that play a special role in Thai culture and history such as the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus and the tiger (Panthera tigris. We provide a selective review and synthesis of the effects of habitat fragmentation on extinction risk. Our emphasis is on objectives, causal mechanisms, and the validity of some of the arguments that have been made in the debate. Heuristic models are explored to elucidate mechanisms that may affect populations in fragmented landscapes and we point out gaps in our knowledge of this important and complicated question. Our synthesis of the current evidence suggests that fragmenting landscapes usually increases the risk of extinction, especially as the isolation of patches increases or the size of patches decreases. The Kingdom of Thailand, and other countries facing similar circumstances, should seek to connect isolated patches of habitat in order to better protect their remaining biodiversity.

  17. The centrality of fear extinction in linking risk factors to PTSD : A narrative review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuj, Daniel V; Palmer, Matthew A; Lommen, Miriam; Felmingham, Kim L

    2016-01-01

    Recent prospective studies in emergency services have identified impaired fear extinction learning and memory to be a significant predictor of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), complementing a wealth of cross-sectional evidence of extinction deficits associated with the disorder. Additional

  18. Long-distance translocations to create a second millerbird population and reduce extinction risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Freifeld,; Sheldon Plentovich,; Chris Farmer,; Charles Kohley,; Peter Luscomb,; Work, Thierry M.; Daniel Tsukayama,; George Wallace,; Mark MacDonald,; Sheila Conant,

    2016-01-01

    Translocation is a conservation tool used with increasing frequency to create additional populations of threatened species. In addition to following established general guidelines for translocations, detailed planning to account for unique circumstances and intensive post-release monitoring to document outcomes and guide management are essential components of these projects. Recent translocation of the critically endangered Nihoa millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) provides an example of this planning and monitoring. The Nihoa millerbird is a passerine bird endemic to Nihoa Island in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The closely related, ecologically similar Laysan millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris familiaris) went extinct on Laysan Island in the early 20th century when the island was denuded by introduced rabbits. To reduce extinction risk, we translocated 50 adult Nihoa millerbirds more than 1000 km by sea to Laysan, which has recovered substantially in the past century and has ample habitat and a rich prey-base for millerbirds. Following five years of intensive background research and planning, including development of husbandry techniques, fundraising, and regulatory compliance, translocations occurred in 2011 and 2012. Of 11 females in each cohort, 8 (2011 cohort) and 11 (2012 cohort) produced at least one brood of fledglings during their first year on Laysan. At the conclusion of monitoring in September 2014, 37 of the translocated birds were known to survive, and the population was estimated at 164 birds. The reintroduction of millerbirds to Laysan represents a milestone in the island's ongoing restoration.

  19. Does litter size variation affect models of terrestrial carnivore extinction risk and management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish-Nelson

    Full Text Available Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species - the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.

  20. Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopf, R Keller; Shaw, Casey; Humphries, Paul

    2017-06-01

    Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11

  1. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. Influence of size-corrected bound-electron contribution on nanometric silver dielectric function. Sizing through optical extinction spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santillán, J M J; Videla, F A; Scaffardi, L B; Schinca, D C; Fernández van Raap, M B; Muraca, D

    2013-01-01

    The study of metal nanoparticles (NPs) is of great interest due to their ability to enhance optical fields on the nanometric scale, which makes them interesting for various applications in several fields of science and technology. In particular, their optical properties depend on the dielectric function of the metal, its size, shape and surrounding environment. This work analyses the contributions of free and bound electrons to the complex dielectric function of spherical silver NPs and their influence on the optical extinction spectra. The contribution of free electrons is usually corrected for particle size under 10 nm, introducing a modification of the damping constant to account for the extra collisions with the particle's boundary. For the contribution of bound electrons, we considered the interband transitions from the d-band to the conduction band including the size dependence of the electronic density states for radii below 2 nm. Bearing in mind these specific modifications, it was possible to determine optical and band energy parameters by fitting the bulk complex dielectric function. The results obtained from the optimum fit are: K bulk = 2 × 10 24 (coefficient for bound-electron contribution), E g = 1.91 eV (gap energy), E F = 4.12 eV (Fermi energy), and γ b = 1.5 × 10 14 Hz (damping constant for bound electrons). Based on this size-dependent dielectric function, extinction spectra of silver particles in the nanometric–subnanometric radius range can be calculated using Mie's theory, and its size behaviour analysed. These studies are applied to fit experimental extinction spectrum of very small spherical particles fabricated by fs laser ablation of a solid target in water. From the fitting, the structure and size distribution of core radius and shell thickness of the colloidal suspension could be determined. The spectroscopic results suggest that the colloidal suspension is composed by two types of structures: bare core and core–shell. The former

  3. Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

    2018-04-01

    Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to

  4. The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

    2015-01-01

    There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

  5. Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracewski, Łukasz; Butchart, Stuart H M; Di Marco, Moreno; Ficetola, Gentile F; Rondinini, Carlo; Symes, Andy; Wheatley, Hannah; Beresford, Alison E; Buchanan, Graeme M

    2016-10-01

    Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

    2016-01-01

    The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

  7. Global analysis of threat status reveals higher extinction risk in tropical than in temperate bird sister species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reif Jiří

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given increasing pressures upon biodiversity, identification of species’ traits related to elevated extinction risk is useful for more efficient allocation of limited resources for nature conservation. Despite its need, such a global analysis was lacking in the case of birds. Therefore, we performed this exercise for avian sister species using information about their global extinction risk from IUCN Red List. We focused on 113 pairs of sister species, each containing a threatened and an unthreatened species to factor out the effects of common evolutionary history on the revealed relationship. We collected data on five traits with expected relationships to species’ extinction risk based on previous studies performed at regional or national levels: breeding habitat (recognizing forest, grassland, wetland and oceanic species, latitudinal range position (temperate and tropics species, migration strategy (migratory and resident species, diet (carnivorous, insectivorous, herbivorous and omnivorous species and body mass. We related the extinction risk using IUCN threat level categories to species’ traits using generalised linear mixed effects models expecting lower risk for forest, temperate, omnivorous and smaller-bodied species. Our expectation was confirmed only in the case of latitudinal range position, as we revealed higher threat level for tropical than for temperate species. This relationship was robust to different methods of threat level expression and cannot be explained by a simple association of high bird species richness with the tropical zone. Instead, it seems that tropical species are more threatened because of their intrinsic characteristics such as slow life histories, adaptations to stable environments and small geographic ranges. These characteristics are obviously disadvantageous in conditions of current human-induced environmental perturbations. Moreover, given the absence of habitat effects, our study indicates that such

  8. Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

    2018-02-01

    Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Comprehensive Red List assessment reveals exceptionally high extinction risk to Madagascar palms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijoro Rakotoarinivo

    Full Text Available The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar's protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected

  10. Comprehensive Red List assessment reveals exceptionally high extinction risk to Madagascar palms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakotoarinivo, Mijoro; Dransfield, John; Bachman, Steven P; Moat, Justin; Baker, William J

    2014-01-01

    The establishment of baseline IUCN Red List assessments for plants is a crucial step in conservation planning. Nowhere is this more important than in biodiversity hotspots that are subject to significant anthropogenic pressures, such as Madagascar. Here, all Madagascar palm species are assessed using the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, version 3.1. Our results indicate that 83% of the 192 endemic species are threatened, nearly four times the proportion estimated for plants globally and exceeding estimates for all other comprehensively evaluated plant groups in Madagascar. Compared with a previous assessment in 1995, the number of Endangered and Critically Endangered species has substantially increased, due to the discovery of 28 new species since 1995, most of which are highly threatened. The conservation status of most species included in both the 1995 and the current assessments has not changed. Where change occurred, more species have moved to lower threat categories than to higher categories, because of improved knowledge of species and their distributions, rather than a decrease in extinction risk. However, some cases of genuine deterioration in conservation status were also identified. Palms in Madagascar are primarily threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and biological resource use through direct exploitation or collateral damage. The recent extension of Madagascar's protected area network is highly beneficial for palms, substantially increasing the number of threatened species populations included within reserves. Notably, three of the eight most important protected areas for palms are newly designated. However, 28 threatened and data deficient species are not protected by the expanded network, including some Critically Endangered species. Moreover, many species occurring in protected areas are still threatened, indicating that threatening processes persist even in reserves. Definitive implementation of the new protected areas combined with

  11. Mechanisms of fine extinction band development in vein quartz: new insights from correlative light and electron microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derez, Tine; Van Der Donck, Tom; Plümper, Oliver; Muchez, Philippe; Pennock, Gill; Drury, Martyn R.; Sintubin, Manuel

    2017-07-01

    Fine extinction bands (FEBs) (also known as deformation lamellae) visible with polarized light microscopy in quartz consist of a range of nanostructures, inferring different formation processes. Previous transmission electron microscopy studies have shown that most FEB nanostructures in naturally deformed quartz are elongated subgrains formed by recovery of dislocation slip bands. Here we show that three types of FEB nanostructure occur in naturally deformed vein quartz from the low-grade metamorphic High-Ardenne slate belt (Belgium). Prismatic oriented FEBs are defined by bands of dislocation walls. Dauphiné twin boundaries present along the FEB boundaries probably formed after FEB formation. In an example of two sub-rhombohedral oriented FEBs, developed as two sets in one grain, the finer FEB set consists of elongated subgrains, similar to FEBs described in previous transmission electron microscopy studies. The second wider FEB set consists of bands with different dislocation density and fluid-inclusion content. The wider FEB set is interpreted as bands with different plastic strain associated with the primary growth banding of the vein quartz grain. The nanometre-scale fluid inclusions are interpreted to have formed from structurally bounded hydroxyl groups that moreover facilitated formation of the elongate subgrains. Larger fluid inclusions aligned along FEBs are explained by fluid-inclusion redistribution along dislocation cores. The prismatic FEB nanostructure and the relation between FEBs and growth bands have not been recognized before, although related structures have been reported in experimentally deformed quartz.

  12. Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade

    OpenAIRE

    Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P.; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J. R.; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C. Darrin

    2013-01-01

    Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower ...

  13. A popular and potentially sustainable fishery resource under pressure–extinction risk and conservation of Brazilian Sciaenidae (Teleostei: Perciformes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Labbish Chao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Croakers (Sciaenidae are major fishery resource in Brazil; constituting 22% of marine and 9% of freshwater fishery landings. Croakers are subject to heavy fishing pressure throughout Brazil, but habitat alteration is also an important threat to regional populations. In this regional Sciaenidae assessment, each species was analyzed for relative risk of extinction, including the identification and quantification of the impact of major threats and existing conservation measures, based on application of the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Of the 52 species of Sciaenid fishes (34 marine and 18 freshwater present in Brazilian waters, the majority are at low risk of extinction, with 10 species classified as Data Deficient (DD and 36 as Least Concern (LC. However the Southern black drum (Pogonias cromis, listed as Endangered (EN is the most threatened species in the region, while three other species are classified as Near Threatened (NT. A large portion of Brazilian croakers is landed by small-scale artisanal fisheries, which are scattered along coastal and riverine communities. However, our assessments reveal that available fishery landing statistics may have greatly underestimated the artisanal fishery production and by-catch of Sciaenids. We recommend establishing, with adequate enforcement, coastal and riverine protected areas as well as strategic fishing seasons to improve and maintain the conservation status of Sciaenids and sustainable Sciaenid fisheries.

  14. Metallic Interface Emerging at Magnetic Domain Wall of Antiferromagnetic Insulator: Fate of Extinct Weyl Electrons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youhei Yamaji

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Topological insulators, in contrast to ordinary semiconductors, accompany protected metallic surfaces described by Dirac-type fermions. Here, we theoretically show that another emergent two-dimensional metal embedded in the bulk insulator is realized at a magnetic domain wall. The domain wall has long been studied as an ingredient of both old-fashioned and leading-edge spintronics. The domain wall here, as an interface of seemingly trivial antiferromagnetic insulators, emergently realizes a functional interface preserved by zero modes with robust two-dimensional Fermi surfaces, where pyrochlore iridium oxides proposed to host the condensed-matter realization of Weyl fermions offer such examples at low temperatures. The existence of in-gap states that are pinned at domain walls, theoretically resembling spin or charge solitons in polyacetylene, and protected as the edges of hidden one-dimensional weak Chern insulators characterized by a zero-dimensional class-A topological invariant, solves experimental puzzles observed in R_{2}Ir_{2}O_{7} with rare-earth elements R. The domain wall realizes a novel quantum confinement of electrons and embosses a net uniform magnetization that enables magnetic control of electronic interface transports beyond the semiconductor paradigm.

  15. Rethinking Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior, and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. PMID:26447572

  16. Rethinking Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavior...

  17. Legal Risk Associated with Electronic Funds Transfer

    OpenAIRE

    Abdulah, Samahir

    2014-01-01

    The past thirty years have seen rapid advances in the technological component of banking services and as a consequence new legal issues have come to the fore, especially with regard to Electronic Fund Transfers (EFTs) which are now used to transfer money around the world, and have made fund transactions between payers and payees easier, faster and more secure. The method involves risks for both banks and customers, due to the possibility of unauthorized payments risks, credit and insolvency p...

  18. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  19. Electronic Publishing in Science: Changes and Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinne, Otto

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the Internet and the guidance of the World Wide Web Consortium focuses on scientific communication and electronic publishing. Considers the speed of communicating and disseminating information; quality issues; cost; library subscriptions; publishers; and risks and concerns, including the role of editors and reviewers or referees.…

  20. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

  1. Decline of shortjaw cisco in Lake Superior: the role of overfishing and risk of extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Gorman, Owen T.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Todd, Thomas N.

    2010-01-01

    Recent reviews have further documented the decline of the shortjaw cisco Coregonus zenithicus in Lake Superior. This fish was the most abundant deepwater cisco species in Lake Superior in the early 1920s but presently makes up less than 1% of all deepwater ciscoes (i.e., including shortjaw cisco, bloater C. hoyi, and kiyi C. kiyi) captured in biological surveys. Directed overfishing of deepwater cisco species during the 1930s and again during the mid-1960s and 1970s has been suggested as the cause of the shortjaw cisco's demise. In this paper, we re-examined the overfishing hypothesis by using historical and recent survey data to estimate the proportion of the historical commercial fishery landings that comprised shortjaw ciscoes. We developed time series of estimated harvest and relative abundance for all statistical districts in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929–1996, for which aggregate catch and effort data were available but not previously examined. The spatial distribution of the fishery and the relationships of catch to fishing effort were examined for evidence of overfishing. Our analysis suggested that directed overfishing was probably not the cause of shortjaw cisco demise, as this species appeared to be declining in all statistical districts regardless of the intensity of the fishery. A count-based population viability analysis indicated that quasi-extinction of the shortjaw cisco is highly probable in the near future. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the decline of Lake Superior's keystone predator, the lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, which resulted in an expansion of the population of its principal prey, the cisco C. artedi, due to release from predation pressure. Competitive or predation interactions between the cisco and shortjaw cisco may be more likely explanations for the demise of the latter species.

  2. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  3. Evolution: Postponing Extinction by Polyandry

    OpenAIRE

    Wade, Michael J.

    2010-01-01

    Sex-ratio meiotic drive occurs when males produce a predominance of X-chromosome bearing sperm and an inordinate number of daughters. A driving X causes highly female-biased sex ratios and the risk of extinction. Polyandry can rescue a population from extinction.

  4. Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

    2013-08-01

    Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by

  5. Interstellar Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Gontcharov, George

    2017-01-01

    This review describes our current understanding of interstellar extinction. This differ substantially from the ideas of the 20th century. With infrared surveys of hundreds of millions of stars over the entire sky, such as 2MASS, SPITZER-IRAC, and WISE, we have looked at the densest and most rarefied regions of the interstellar medium at distances of a few kpc from the sun. Observations at infrared and microwave wavelengths, where the bulk of the interstellar dust absorbs and radiates, have br...

  6. The extinction of the West African lion: whose responsibility?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nollkaemper, A.

    2014-01-01

    A recently published study showed that the lion in West Africa is now critically endangered and faces extinction. From one angle, this would be just one of the large (though unknown) number of species that has previously faced extinction or has even become extinct. But the risk of extinction of some

  7. Impossible Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, Charles S.

    2003-03-01

    Every 225 million years the Earth, and all the life on it, completes one revolution around the Milky Way Galaxy. During this remarkable journey, life is influenced by calamitous changes. Comets and asteroids strike the surface of the Earth, stars explode, enormous volcanoes erupt, and, more recently, humans litter the planet with waste. Many animals and plants become extinct during the voyage, but humble microbes, simple creatures made of a single cell, survive this journey. This book takes a tour of the microbial world, from the coldest and deepest places on Earth to the hottest and highest, and witnesses some of the most catastrophic events that life can face. Impossible Extinction tells this remarkable story to the general reader by explaining how microbes have survived on Earth for over three billion years. Charles Cockell received his doctorate from the University of Oxford, and is currently a microbiologist with rhe Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (SETI), based at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK. His research focusses on astrobiology, life in the extremes and the human exploration of Mars. Cockell has been on expeditions to the Arctic, Antarctic, Mongolia, and in 1993 he piloted a modified insect-collecting ultra-light aircraft over the Indonesian rainforests. He is Chair of the Twenty-one Eleven Foundation for Exploration, a charity that supports expeditions that forge links between space exploration and environmentalism.

  8. RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Soava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Risk should not be understood as a destructive phenomenon, but bear in mind that managers who know how to use it can lead to real opportunities. Manager must first recognize the existence of risk, namely to identify and then use specific methods to avoid or reduce the risk. The purpose of this paper is to enter the world, at all simple, of risk management, relatively easy concept to understand but not so easy to put into practice. Of course, the approach relates primarily at the risks inherent of the business in digital environments, but they not represent only a particular case of the risks they are exposed, in general, the companies. In the paper we put in evidence the significance in general business, risks in e-business, then we added a description of the types of security risks, an exemplification of these and a series of test scenarios, and finally to make a analysis of operational solutions of risk management

  9. Seasonal atmospheric extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhail, J.S.

    1979-01-01

    Mean monochromatic extinction coefficients at various wavelengths at the Kottamia Observatory site have shown the existence of a seasonal variation of atmospheric extinction. The extinction of aerosol compontnts with wavelengths at winter represent exceedingly good conditions. Spring gives the highest extinction due to aerosol. (orig.)

  10. How to detect and visualize extinction thresholds for structured PVA models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hildenbrandt, H.; Grimm, V.

    2006-01-01

    An extinction threshold is a population size below which extinction risk increases to beyond critical values. However, detecting extinction thresholds for structured population models is not straightforward because many different population structures may correspond to the same population size.

  11. Perceived risk and trust associated with purchasing at Electronic Marketplaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meents, Selmar; Tan, Yao-Hua; Verhagen, Tibert

    2006-01-01

    Understanding consumer behaviour is of vital importance to consumer oriented e-business models today. In this paper we study the relationships between consumer perceptions of risk and trust and the attitude towards purchasing at a consumer-to-consumer electronic marketplace. Typical for electronic

  12. Different Histories, Different Destinies‒Impact of Evolutionary History and Population Genetic Structure on Extinction Risk of the Adriatic Spined Loaches (Genus Cobitis; Cypriniformes, Actinopterygii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Buj

    Full Text Available The region of Balkans is often considered as an ichthyologic "hot spot", with a great number of species and high portion of endemics living in fresh waters in a relatively small area. The Adriatic watershed in Croatia and Herzegovina is inhabited by six spined loach species (genus Cobitis whose extinction risk estimations were based solely on their extent of occurrence (and/or area of occupancy and its fragmentation, and conservation proposals do not consider diversity below species level. In this investigation we employed molecular genetic methods to describe present genetic structure of the Adriatic spined loaches and reveal their demographic history. The divergence of the Adriatic lineages inside the genus Cobitis started in Miocene and lasted until Pleistocene epoch. Geological events responsible for shaping recent diversity of spined loaches in the Adriatic basin are: the Dinarid Mountains upwelling, the evolution of Dinaric Lake system, local tectonic activity, river connections during glaciations and differences in sea level. Even though all the investigated species inhabit karstic rivers located in the same geographic area and that were subject of similar geological events, the results obtained reveal great differences in their genetic diversity and structure and point out the necessity of different conservation measures to ensure their future viability. High level of genetic polymorphism is characteristic for species located more to the south. Two species comprised of more than one population have completely different intraspecific structure; populations of C. illyrica are genetically distinct and represent separate evolutionary significant units, whereas intraspecific structure of C. narentana corresponds to metapopulational pattern. Without population genetic data, evolutionary significant units could be easily misidentified. Furthermore, the obtained results affirm that population genetic measurements are able to detect differences

  13. Malthusian Catastrophe: Species Extinction Caused By Oversized Population

    OpenAIRE

    Pan, Xubin

    2017-01-01

    There is one pseudo-extinction debt and four occurring conditions for real extinction debt. Since small and oversized populations have a high extinction risk, Pan threshold (upper limit) was calculated for Verhulst-Pear logistic growth model and logistic model with the Allee effect, an important parameter corresponding to Allee threshold (lower limit).

  14. Modeling galactic extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Cecchi-Pestellini, C.; Mulas, G.; Casu, S.; Iatì, M. A.; Saija, R.; Cacciola, A.; Borghese, F.; Denti, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present a model for interstellar extinction dust, in which we assume a bimodal distribution of extinction carriers, a dispersion of core-mantle grains, supplemented by a collection of PAHs in free molecular form. We use state-of-the-art methods to calculate the extinction due to macroscopic dust particles, and the absorption cross-sections of PAHs in four different charge states. While successfull for most of observed Galactic extinction curves, in few cases the model cannot provide reliab...

  15. Modern examples of extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lövei, Gabor L

    2013-01-01

    No species lives forever, and extinction is the ultimate fate of all living species. The fossil record indicates that a recent extinction wave affecting terrestrial vertebrates was parallel with the arrival of modern humans to areas formerly uninhabited by them. These modern instances of extinction...

  16. Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

    2017-11-15

    limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Perceived risk and trust associated with purchasing at electronic marketplaces

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, T.; Meents, S.; Tan, Y.H.

    2006-01-01

    Understanding consumer behaviour is of vital importance to consumer-oriented e-business models today. In this paper, we study the relationships between consumer perceptions of risk and trust and the attitude towards purchasing at a consumer-to-consumer electronic marketplace (EM). Typical for EM

  18. Bimodal extinction without cross-modal extinction.

    OpenAIRE

    Inhoff, A W; Rafal, R D; Posner, M J

    1992-01-01

    Three patients with unilateral neurological injury were clinically examined. All showed consistent unilateral extinction in the tactile and visual modalities on simultaneous intramodal stimulation. There was virtually no evidence for cross-modal extinction, however, so that contralateral stimulation of one modality would have extinguished perception of ipsilateral stimuli in the other modality. It is concluded that the attentional system controlling the encoding of tactile and visual stimuli ...

  19. Extinction with multiple excitors

    OpenAIRE

    McConnell, Bridget L.; Miguez, Gonzalo; Miller, Ralph R.

    2013-01-01

    Four conditioned suppression experiments with rats, using an ABC renewal design, investigated the effects of compounding the target conditioned excitor with additional, nontarget conditioned excitors during extinction. Experiment 1 showed stronger extinction, as evidenced by less renewal, when the target excitor was extinguished in compound with a second excitor, relative to when it was extinguished with associatively neutral stimuli. Critically, this deepened extinction effect was attenuated...

  20. Temporal factors in the extinction of fear in inbred mouse strains differing in extinction efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPherson, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Camp, Marguerite; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2013-07-05

    Various neuropsychiatric conditions, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are characterized by deficient fear extinction, but individuals differ greatly in risk for these. While there is growing evidence that fear extinction is influenced by certain procedural variables, it is unclear how these influences might vary across individuals and subpopulations. To model individual differences in fear extinction, prior studies identified a strain of inbred mouse, 129S1/SvImJ (S1), which exhibits a profound deficit in fear extinction, as compared to other inbred strains, such as C57BL/6J (B6). Here, we assessed the effects of procedural variables on the impaired extinction phenotype of the S1 strain and, by comparison, the extinction-intact B6 strain. The variables studied were 1) the interval between conditioning and extinction, 2) the interval between cues during extinction training, 3) single-cue exposure before extinction training, and 4) extinction of a second-order conditioned cue. Conducting extinction training soon after ('immediately') conditioning attenuated fear retrieval in S1 mice and impaired extinction in B6 mice. Spacing cue presentations with long inter-trial intervals during extinction training augmented fear in S1 and B6 mice. The effect of spacing was lost with one-trial fear conditioning in B6, but not S1 mice. A single exposure to a conditioned cue before extinction training did not alter extinction retrieval, either in B6 or S1 mice. Both the S1 and B6 strains exhibited robust second-order fear conditioning, in which a cue associated with footshock was sufficient to serve as a conditioned exciter to condition a fear association to a second cue. B6 mice extinguished the fear response to the second-order conditioned cue, but S1 mice failed to do so. These data provide further evidence that fear extinction is strongly influenced by multiple procedural variables and is so in a highly strain-dependent manner. This suggests that the efficacy of

  1. THE ROLE OF TRUST AND PERCEIVED RISK IN ELECTRONIC COMMERCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICULA DANA LAURA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Trust and risk are very important in consumers' electronic commerce purchasing decisions. How do trust and risk affect an Internet consumer's purchasing decision? To answer this question I’ve developed a theoretical framework describing the trust-based decision-making process a consumer uses when making a purchase from a given site. Consumer disposition to trust, reputation, privacy concerns, security concerns, the information quality of the Website, and the company's reputation, have strong effects on Internet consumers' trust in the Website.

  2. Electronic cigarettes: incorporating human factors engineering into risk assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Ling; Rudy, Susan F; Cheng, James M; Durmowicz, Elizabeth L

    2014-01-01

    Objective A systematic review was conducted to evaluate the impact of human factors (HF) on the risks associated with electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) and to identify research gaps. HF is the evaluation of human interactions with products and includes the analysis of user, environment and product complexity. Consideration of HF may mitigate known and potential hazards from the use and misuse of a consumer product, including e-cigarettes. Methods Five databases were searched through Januar...

  3. Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

    2011-04-01

    With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  4. Vehicle rollover risk and electronic stability control systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLennan, P A; Marshall, T; Griffin, R; Purcell, M; McGwin, G; Rue, L W

    2008-06-01

    Electronic stability control (ESC) systems were developed to reduce motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) caused by loss of control. Introduced in Europe in 1995 and in the USA in 1996, ESC is designed to improve vehicle lateral stability by electronically detecting and automatically assisting drivers in unfavorable situations. To examine the relationship between vehicle rollover risk and presence of ESC using a large national database of MVCs. A retrospective cohort study for the period 1995 through 2006 was carried out using data obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. All passenger cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs)/vans of model year 1996 and later were eligible. Vehicle ESC (unavailable, optional, standard) was determined on the basis of make, model, and model year. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were calculated to compare rollover risk by vehicle ESC group. For all crashes, vehicles equipped with standard ESC had decreased risk of rollover (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.77) compared with vehicles with ESC unavailable. The association was consistent for single-vehicle MVCs (RR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.82); passenger cars had decreased rollover risk (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.12), but SUVs/vans had a more dramatically decreased risk (RR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.61). This study supports previous results showing ESC to be effective in reducing the risk of rollover. ESC is more effective in SUVs/vans for rollovers related to single-vehicle MVCs.

  5. Distribution of mammal functional diversity in the Neotropical realm: Influence of land-use and extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José F González-Maya

    Full Text Available Functional diversity represents a measure of diversity that incorporates the role of species in an ecosystem, and therefore its dynamics and resilience. Assessing its drivers and spatial variation represents an important step forward in our understanding of functional ecosystem dynamics and it is also necessary to achieve a comprehensive conservation planning. In this paper, we assessed mammal functional diversity for the 218 ecoregions within the Neotropical realm. We evaluated the overall influence and spatial variation of species richness, ecoregion extent, intervention and species at risk on functional diversity. Using ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression modeling approaches, we found that intervened areas and threatened and non-threatened species are the most influential overall drivers of functional diversity. However, we also detected that these variables do not operate equally across scales. Our local analyses indicated both that the variation explained and local coefficients vary spatially depending on the ecoregion and major habitat type. As estimates of functional diversity are based on current distribution of all mammals, negative influence of intervened areas and positive influence of non-threatened species may reflect a potential degradation of functional processes for some ecosystems. Most generally, the negative influence of intervention together with the influence of threatened species indicates that some areas are currently more susceptible to functional diversity loss. Our results help to pinpoint key areas requiring urgent conservation action to reduce natural land-cover loss and areas where threatened species play influential roles on ecosystem functioning.

  6. End Ordovician extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harper, David A. T.; Hammarlund, Emma; Rasmussen, Christian M. Ø.

    2014-01-01

    -global anoxia associated with a marked transgression during the Late Hirnantian. Most recently, however, new drivers for the extinctions have been proposed, including widespread euxinia together with habitat destruction caused by plate tectonic movements, suggesting that the end Ordovician mass extinctions were...

  7. Extinction of NGC 7027

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaton, M.J.

    1979-01-01

    Emission intensities of recombination lines in hydrogenic spectra are known accurately relative to intensities in the free-free radio continuum. For NGC 7027 intensities have been measured for the radio continuum and for H I and He II lines in the wavelength range from lambda = 2.17 μm to lambda = 1640 A: comparison with the calculated emission intensities gives the extinction. Determinations of the standard interstellar extinction function are critically discussed. The extinction deduced for the total radiation from NGC 7027 has a dependence on wavelength for 6563 A >= lambda >= 1640 A which is in excellent agreement with the adopted standard results, but there are some anomalies for longer wavelengths and for the ratio of total to selective extinction. These can be explained using a model which allows for a local contribution to the extinction which is variable over the surface of the nebula. (author)

  8. Interstellar extinction correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.P.; Williams, D.A.; Duley, W.W.

    1987-01-01

    A recently proposed model for interstellar grains in which the extinction arises from small silicate cores with mantles of hydrogenated amorphous carbon (HAC or α-C:H), and large, but thinly coated, silicate grains can successfully explain many of the observed properties of interstellar dust. The small silicate cores give rise to the 2200 A extinction feature. The extinction in the visual is produced by the large silicates and the HAC mantles on the small cores, whilst the far UV extinction arises in the HAC mantles with a small contribution form the silicate grains. The grain model requires that the silicate material is the more resilient component and that variations in the observed extinction from region to region are due to the nature and depletion of the carbon in the HAC mantles. (author)

  9. Extinction and the fossil record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, ,. J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1994-01-01

    The author examines evidence of mass extinctions in the fossil record and searches for reasons for such large extinctions. Five major mass extinctions eliminated at least 40 percent of animal genera in the oceans and from 65 to 95 percent of ocean species. Questions include the occurrence of gradual or catastrophic extinctions, causes, environment, the capacity of a perturbation to cause extinctions each time it happens, and the possibility and identification of complex events leading to a mass extinction.

  10. Electronic fraud (cyber fraud risk in the banking industry, Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shewangu Dzomira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores forms of electronic fraud which are being perpetrated in the banking industry and the challenges being faced in an attempt to combat the risk. The paper is based on a descriptive study which studied the cyber fraud phenomenon using content analysis. To obtain the data questionnaires and interviews were administered to the selected informants from 22 banks. Convenience and judgemental sampling techniques were used. It was found out that most of the cited types of electronic fraud are perpetrated across the banking industry. Challenges like lack of resources (detection tools and technologies, inadequate cyber-crime laws and lack of knowledge through education and awareness were noted. It is recommended that the issue of cyber security should be addressed involving all the stakeholders so that technological systems are safeguarded from cyber-attacks

  11. Is IR going extinct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Audra

    2016-01-01

    A global extinction crisis may threaten the survival of most existing life forms. Influential discourses of ‘existential risk’ suggest that human extinction is a real possibility, while several decades of evidence from conservation biology suggests that the Earth may be entering a ‘sixth mass extinction event’. These conditions threaten the possibilities of survival and security that are central to most branches of International Relations. However, this discipline lacks a framework for addressing (mass) extinction. From notions of ‘nuclear winter’ and ‘omnicide’ to contemporary discourses on catastrophe, International Relations thinking has treated extinction as a superlative of death. This is a profound category mistake: extinction needs to be understood not in the ontic terms of life and death, but rather in the ontological context of be(com)ing and negation. Drawing on the work of theorists of the ‘inhuman’ such as Quentin Meillassoux, Claire Colebrook, Ray Brassier, Jean-Francois Lyotard and Nigel Clark, this article provides a pathway for thinking beyond existing horizons of survival and imagines a profound transformation of International Relations. Specifically, it outlines a mode of cosmopolitics that responds to the element of the inhuman and the forces of extinction. Rather than capitulating to narratives of tragedy, this cosmopolitics would make it possible to think beyond the restrictions of existing norms of ‘humanity’ to embrace an ethics of gratitude and to welcome the possibility of new worlds, even in the face of finitude.

  12. Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…

  13. Geographies of Conservation I: De-extinction and Precision Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, William Mark

    2016-01-01

    Extinction has long been a central concern in biodiversity conservation. Today, de-extinction offers interesting possibilities of restoring charismatic species and ecosystem function, but also risks and costs. Most de-extinction depends on genetic engineering and synthetic biology. These technologies are also proposed for use in ‘gene tweaking’ in wild species to enhance their chance of survival. Within conservation, the resulting debates pit an optimistic world of high-tech ‘precision con...

  14. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Schneider, Stephen H; Fay, John P; Loarie, Scott R

    2008-02-01

    Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.

  15. Reintroducing resurrected species: selecting DeExtinction candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Philip J; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Ewen, John

    2014-03-01

    Technological advances have raised the controversial prospect of resurrecting extinct species. Species DeExtinction should involve more than the production of biological orphans to be scrutinized in the laboratory or zoo. If DeExtinction is to realize its stated goals of deep ecological enrichment, then resurrected animals must be translocated (i.e., released within suitable habitat). Therefore, DeExtinction is a conservation translocation issue and the selection of potential DeExtinction candidates must consider the feasibility and risks associated with reintroduction. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Guidelines on Reintroductions and Other Conservation Translocations provide a framework for DeExtinction candidate selection. We translate these Guidelines into ten questions to be addressed early on in the selection process to eliminate unsuitable reintroduction candidates. We apply these questions to the thylacine, Yangtze River Dolphin, and Xerces blue butterfly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Stress and Fear Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maren, Stephen; Holmes, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Stress has a critical role in the development and expression of many psychiatric disorders, and is a defining feature of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Stress also limits the efficacy of behavioral therapies aimed at limiting pathological fear, such as exposure therapy. Here we examine emerging evidence that stress impairs recovery from trauma by impairing fear extinction, a form of learning thought to underlie the suppression of trauma-related fear memories. We describe the major structural and functional abnormalities in brain regions that are particularly vulnerable to stress, including the amygdala, prefrontal cortex, and hippocampus, which may underlie stress-induced impairments in extinction. We also discuss some of the stress-induced neurochemical and molecular alterations in these brain regions that are associated with extinction deficits, and the potential for targeting these changes to prevent or reverse impaired extinction. A better understanding of the neurobiological basis of stress effects on extinction promises to yield novel approaches to improving therapeutic outcomes for PTSD and other anxiety and trauma-related disorders. PMID:26105142

  17. Biological Extinction in Earth History

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, David M.

    1986-03-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  18. Biological extinction in earth history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raup, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  19. Interstellar dust and extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathis, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    It is noted that the term interstellar dust refers to materials with rather different properties, and that the mean extinction law of Seaton (1979) or Savage and Mathis (1979) should be replaced by the expression given by Cardelli et al. (1989), using the appropriate value of total-to-selective extinction. The older laws were appropriate for the diffuse ISM but dust in clouds differs dramatically in its extinction law. Dust is heavily processed while in the ISM by being included within clouds and cycled back into the diffuse ISM many times during its lifetime. Hence, grains probably reflect only a trace of their origin, although meteoritic inclusions with isotopic anomalies demonstrate that some tiny particles survive intact from a supernova origin to the present. 186 refs

  20. ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Paul W.

    2008-01-01

    ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

  1. Time to extinction of bird populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sæther, B-E.; Engen, S.; Møller, A.P.; Visser, M.E.; Matthysen, E.; Fiedler, W.; Lambrechts, M.M.; Becker, P.H.; Brommer, J.E.; Dickinson, J.; du Feu, C.; Gehlbach, F.R.; Merilä, J.; Rendell, W.; Robertson, R.J.; Thomson, D.L.; Török, J.

    2005-01-01

    The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the

  2. New data on the “silver-bell cricket” (Orthoptera, Gryllidae, a forgotten and overlooked cricket subject to a high risk of extinction in western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cordero, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Gryllodinus kerkennensis (Finot, 1893 presents a disjunct distribution in the Southern part of the Western Palearctic from North Africa up to Central Asia inhabiting arid, semidesert or desert land mostly associated with saline soils near water sources of lagoons or river beds depressions. The species was not recorded in Western Europe (Iberian Peninsula since 1936 and up to now it is currently excluded from all red list books for Orthopteran conservation. In this paper we report a few and localised populations of this cricket in Castilla-La Mancha inhabiting sandy shores of hiper-saline lagoons. We also provide information on its biometrics, phenology, ecology and behaviour including data of all collection specimens of the Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN. Because of its audible and particular song, we propose campaigns of night listening points to search for this species in other potential sites where it could be present. We believe that this species may be subject to a high risk of extinction in the Iberian Peninsula, and thus in the whole Western Europe. This is because of their restricted populations and the fragility of its specific habitat. We propose an urgent integral protection and the inclusion of the species in the lists of highly endangered invertebrate species.

    Gryllodinus kerkennensis (Finot, 1893 presenta una distribución disjunta a lo largo de la franja meridional y occidental del Paleártico, desde África del Norte hasta Asia Central, habitando zonas áridas, desiertos o semi-desiertos, principalmente asociado a suelos salinos próximos a masas de agua de lagunas o depresiones de cuencas fluviales. Esta especie no se registraba en Europa occidental (Península Ibérica desde 1936 y en la actualidad está excluida de todas las listas de libros rojos para la conservación de Ortópteros. En este trabajo describimos varias poblaciones aisladas de este grillo en Castilla-La Mancha en orillas

  3. Extinction of sodium fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malet, J.C.; Spagna, F.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents how, starting from a knowledge of sodium ignition and burning, principles for extinction (smothering catch trays, leak recuperation systems, powders) can be developed. These techniques applied in Superphenix 1 and PEC reactors have been tested in the ESMERALDA experimental program which is a joint French/Italian project. (author)

  4. The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turvey, Samuel T; Fritz, Susanne A

    2011-09-12

    Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.

  5. THE SECONDARY EXTINCTION CORRECTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zachariasen, W. H.

    1963-03-15

    It is shown that Darwin's formula for the secondary extinction correction, which has been universally accepted and extensively used, contains an appreciable error in the x-ray diffraction case. The correct formula is derived. As a first order correction for secondary extinction, Darwin showed that one should use an effective absorption coefficient mu + gQ where an unpolarized incident beam is presumed. The new derivation shows that the effective absorption coefficient is mu + 2gQ(1 + cos/sup 4/2 theta )/(1 plus or minus cos/sup 2/2 theta )/s up 2/, which gives mu + gQ at theta =0 deg and theta = 90 deg , but mu + 2gQ at theta = 45 deg . Darwin's theory remains valid when applied to neutron diffraction. (auth)

  6. Galactic dust and extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyngaa, G.

    1979-01-01

    The ratio R between visual extinction and colour excess, is slightly larger than 3 and does not vary much throughout our part of the Galaxy. The distribution of dust in the galactic plane shows, on the large scale, a gradient with higher colour excesses towards l=50 0 than towards l=230 0 . On the smaller scale, much of the dust responsible for extinction is situated in clouds which tend to group together. The correlation between positions of interstellar dust clouds and positions of spiral tracers seems rather poor in our Galaxy. However, concentrated dark clouds as well as extended regions of dust show an inclined distribution similar to the Gould belt of bright stars. (Auth.)

  7. Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

    OpenAIRE

    Geis, Stefan Rafael

    2006-01-01

    This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

  8. Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

    2003-01-01

    Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

  9. The use of extinction corrections in neutron diffraction experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delapalme, A.

    1987-08-01

    Extinction can be treated through various models originating in either kinematical (intensity coupling) or dynamical (wave coupling) theories. For most crystals the situation is intermediate between these two extreme cases and extinction models are necessary to obtain precise Fourier components (structure factors) and the electronic and magnetic distribution in molecules and crystals. New models reveal new parameters and new effects of their role in the Extinction phenomena, but the phenomenological aspect of the solutions shows the difficulty to describe adequately what happens in real crystals

  10. POST-RETRIEVAL EXTINCTION ATTENUATES ALCOHOL CUE REACTIVITY IN RATS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cofresí, Roberto U.; Lewis, Suzanne M.; Chaudhri, Nadia; Lee, Hongjoo J.; Monfils, Marie-H.; Gonzales, Rueben A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Conditioned responses to alcohol-associated cues can hinder recovery from alcohol use disorder (AUD). Cue exposure (extinction) therapy (CET) can reduce reactivity to alcohol cues, but its efficacy is limited by phenomena such as spontaneous recovery and reinstatement that can cause a return of conditioned responding after extinction. Using a preclinical model of alcohol cue reactivity in rats, we evaluated whether the efficacy of alcohol CET could be improved by conducting CET during the memory reconsolidation window after retrieval of a cue-alcohol association. METHODS Rats were provided with intermittent access to unsweetened alcohol. Rats were then trained to predict alcohol access based on a visual cue. Next, rats were treated with either standard extinction (n=14) or post-retrieval extinction (n=13). Rats were then tested for long-term memory of extinction and susceptibility to spontaneous recovery and reinstatement. RESULTS Despite equivalent extinction, rats treated with post-retrieval extinction exhibited reduced spontaneous recovery and reinstatement relative to rats treated with standard extinction. CONCLUSIONS Post-retrieval CET shows promise for persistently attenuating the risk to relapse posed by alcohol cues in individuals with AUD. PMID:28169439

  11. Modelling interstellar extinction: Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    Several methods of calculating the extinction of porous silicate grains are discussed, these include effective medium theories and hollow spherical shells. Porous silicate grains are shown to produce enhanced infrared, ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet extinction and this effect can be used to reduce the abundance of carbon required to match the average interstellar extinction, however, matching the visual extinction is rather more problematical. We have shown that the enhanced extinction at long and short wavelengths have different origins, and have explained why the visual extinction is little affected by porosity. The implications of porous grains in the interstellar medium are discussed with particular reference to surface chemistry, the polarization of starlight, and their dynamical evolution. (author)

  12. Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate...... evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending...... computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific...

  13. Rescuing Ecosystems from Extinction Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahasrabudhe, Sagar; Motter, Adilson

    2010-03-01

    Food web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species, and natural disasters often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions. Using a predictive modeling framework, here we will present a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions. We will show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal of a second specific species, which is a counter-intuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not a priori evident from local predator-prey relationships. Strikingly, in numerous cases even the early removal of a species that would eventually be extinct by the cascade is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. Other nondestructive interventions based on partial removals and growth suppression and/or mortality increase are shown to sometimes prevent all secondary extinctions.

  14. Acoustic integrated extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Norris, Andrew N.

    2015-01-01

    The integrated extinction (IE) is defined as the integral of the scattering cross section as a function of wavelength. Sohl et al. (2007 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 122, 3206–3210. (doi:10.1121/1.2801546)) derived an IE expression for acoustic scattering that is causal, i.e. the scattered wavefront in the forward direction arrives later than the incident plane wave in the background medium. The IE formula was based on electromagnetic results, for which scattering is causal by default. Here, we der...

  15. Mass extinctions of Earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, B.; Fernandez, P.; Pereira, B.

    2015-01-01

    Throughout the history of our planet, there have been global phenomena which have led to the disappearance of a large number of species: It is what is known as mass or massive extinctions. This article will make a tour of these large events, from the most remote antiquity to the present day. Today we find ourselves immersed in a process unprecedented since we are eyewitnesses and, more important still, an active part in the decision-making process to try to mitigate their effects. (Author)

  16. Mass extinctions and supernova explosions

    OpenAIRE

    Korschinek, Gunther

    2016-01-01

    A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation, o...

  17. Extinction of H II regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Israel, F.P.; Kennicutt, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    Visual extinction of H II regions in nine nearby galaxies as derived from the ratio of the radio continuum emission to H-alpha emission is systematically larger than visual extinction deduced from the Balmer lines alone, if one assumes a value Av/E(B-V) 3. An optically-limited sample of about 30 extragalactic H II regions has a mean extinction of 1.7 m in the visual while about 1.2 m is not seen in the reddening of the Balmer lines. Both reddening and extinction decreases with increasing galactic radius, at least for M33 and M101

  18. A reconciliation of extinction theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabine, T.M.

    1988-01-01

    The differences between previous theoretical treatments of extinction based on the Darwin intensity equations arise because of the different functional form chosen for the coupling constant σ. When the same function is used these theories make closely similar predictions. It is shown that a limiting condition on integrated intensity as the crystal size increases puts restrictions on the functions which may be used. A Lorentzian or Fresnellian function can be used for primary extinction while secondary extinction requires a Gaussian, rectangular or triangular function. An analytical expression is given for the variation in the value of the extinction factor with scattering angle. (orig.)

  19. Impaired fear extinction learning and cortico-amygdala circuit abnormalities in a common genetic mouse strain

    OpenAIRE

    Hefner, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Juhasz, Jaynann; Norcross, Maxine; Karlsson, Rose-Marie; Saksida, Lisa M.; Bussey, Timothy J.; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a form of new learning that results in the inhibition of conditioned fear. Trait deficits in fear extinction are a risk factor for anxiety disorders. There are few examples of naturally-occurring animal models of impaired extinction. The present study compared fear extinction in a panel of inbred mouse strains. This strain survey revealed an impairment in fear extinction in 129/SvImJ (129S1). The phenotypic specificity of this deficit was evaluated by comparing 129S1 and C5...

  20. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

    2018-01-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

  1. Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

    2018-02-01

    Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

  2. Molar extinction coefficients of solutions of some organic compounds

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    efficients of these compounds have been used to calculate effective atomic numbers and electron densities. The additivity ... Molar extinction coefficients; effective atomic numbers; electron density. PACS Nos 29.30. ... the radiation path and is linearly dependent on the concentration of the absorbing species. This is most ...

  3. How humans drive speciation as well as extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bull, Joseph William; Maron, M.

    2016-01-01

    influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon ‘no net loss’ conservation literature— considering phylogenetic diversity...... and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity....

  4. Infective endocarditis and risk of death after cardiac implantable electronic device implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Özcan, Cengiz; Raunsø, Jakob; Lamberts, Morten

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: To determine the incidence, risk factors, and mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) following implantation of a first-time, permanent, cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED). METHODS AND RESULTS: From Danish nationwide administrative registers (beginning in 1996), we identified all...

  5. Risk Analysis of Flare Flame-out Condition in a Gas Process Facility Analyse des risques des conditions d’extinction de torche au sein d’une installation de traitement de gaz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zadakbar O.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Flaring is a common method of disposal of flammable waste gases in the downstream industries. Flare flame out (flame lift-off or blow-outs often occurs causing toxic vapors to discharge. The toxic gases released may have hazardous effects on the surrounding environment. To study the effect of inhalation exposure of these toxic gases on human health, the four steps of the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency framework with the field data to quantify the cancer and non-cancer health risks are integrated in this paper. As a part of exposure assessment, gas dispersion modeling using AERMOD and UDM-PHAST is applied in two different conditions of normal flaring and flare flame out during a particular climate condition in Khangiran region. Recommendations to avoid flare flame out conditions are also presented here. Le torchage est un procédé courant d’élimination des gaz résiduaires inflammables dans les industries de traitement. L’extinction de la torche (par décollage ou soufflage de flamme provoque souvent une émission de vapeurs toxiques. Ces gaz toxiques libérés peuvent présenter des effets dangereux sur le milieu environnant. Pour étudier l’effet d’une exposition par inhalation de ces gaz toxiques sur la santé, cet article croise les quatre étapes de la démarche de l’EPA (Environmental Protection Agency, Agence de protection de l’environnement avec les données d’exploitation afin de quantifier le risque sanitaire cancérologique et non cancérologique. Dans le cadre de l’estimation d’exposition, une modélisation de dispersion des gaz utilisant AERMOD et UDM-PHAST est évaluée dans deux configurations différentes de torchage normal et d’extinction de torche à l’occasion de conditions climatiques particulières dans la région du Khangiran. L’article propose également des recommandations destinées à éviter les conditions d’une extinction de flamme de torche.

  6. Identification and Progression of Heart Disease Risk Factors in Diabetic Patients from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitendra Jonnagaddala

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Therefore, assessing the risk of its occurrence is a crucial step in predicting serious cardiac events. Identifying heart disease risk factors and tracking their progression is a preliminary step in heart disease risk assessment. A large number of studies have reported the use of risk factor data collected prospectively. Electronic health record systems are a great resource of the required risk factor data. Unfortunately, most of the valuable information on risk factor data is buried in the form of unstructured clinical notes in electronic health records. In this study, we present an information extraction system to extract related information on heart disease risk factors from unstructured clinical notes using a hybrid approach. The hybrid approach employs both machine learning and rule-based clinical text mining techniques. The developed system achieved an overall microaveraged F-score of 0.8302.

  7. Global extinction in spiral galaxies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tully, RB; Pierce, MJ; Saunders, W; Verheijen, MAW; Witchalls, PL

    Magnitude-limited samples of spiral galaxies drawn from the Ursa Major and Pisces Clusters are used to determine their extinction properties as a function of inclination. Imaging photometry is available for 87 spirals in the B, R, I, and K' bands. Extinction causes systematic scatter in

  8. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosman, Renske C.; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might

  9. Behavioral tagging of extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho Myskiw, Jociane; Benetti, Fernando; Izquierdo, Iván

    2013-01-15

    Extinction of contextual fear in rats is enhanced by exposure to a novel environment at 1-2 h before or 1 h after extinction training. This effect is antagonized by administration of protein synthesis inhibitors anisomycin and rapamycin into the hippocampus, but not into the amygdala, immediately after either novelty or extinction training, as well as by the gene expression blocker 5,6-dichloro-1-beta-D-ribofuranosylbenzimidazole administered after novelty training, but not after extinction training. Thus, this effect can be attributed to a mechanism similar to synaptic tagging, through which long-term potentiation can be enhanced by other long-term potentiations or by exposure to a novel environment in a protein synthesis-dependent fashion. Extinction learning produces a tag at the appropriate synapses, whereas novelty learning causes the synthesis of plasticity-related proteins that are captured by the tag, strengthening the synapses that generated this tag.

  10. Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mead, J.I.; Martin, P.S.; Euler, R.C.; Long, A.; Jull, A.J.T.; Toolin, L.J.; Donahue, D.J.; Linick, T.W.

    1986-01-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters

  11. Extinction of metal fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mellottee, H.

    1977-01-01

    The main points of a large bibliography on liquid and solid metal fires are set out. The various methods used to fight these fires are presented; covering by powders is specially emphasized. Since this method has promising results, the various possible techniques, extinction by cooling the metal, by blanketing, by formation of a continuous insulating layer (by fusion or pyrolysis of a powder) or by a surface reaction between powder and metal are studied. The conditions of conservation and use of powders are outlined, then the various powders are described: inert powders, powders undergoing a physical transformation (fusion or vitrification of an organic compound, fusion of eutectic inorganic mixtures), multiple effect powders. Precise examples are quoted [fr

  12. Measuring Extinction with ALE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; McGraw, J. T.; Gimmestad, G. G.; Roberts, D.; Stewart, J.; Smith, J.; Fitch, J.

    2007-12-01

    ALE (Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction) is deployed at the University of New Mexico's (UNM) Campus Observatory in Albuquerque, NM. It has begun a year-long testing phase prior deployment at McDonald Observatory in support of the CCD/Transit Instrument II (CTI-II). ALE is designed to produce a high-precision measurement of atmospheric absorption and scattering above the observatory site every ten minutes of every moderately clear night. LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) is the VIS/UV/IR analog of radar, using a laser, telescope and time-gated photodetector instead of a radio transmitter, dish and receiver. In the case of ALE -- an elastic backscatter LIDAR -- 20ns-long, eye-safe laser pulses are launched 2500 times per second from a 0.32m transmitting telescope co-mounted with a 50mm short-range receiver on an alt-az mounted 0.67m long-range receiver. Photons from the laser pulse are scattered and absorbed as the pulse propagates through the atmosphere, a portion of which are scattered into the field of view of the short- and long-range receiver telescopes and detected by a photomultiplier. The properties of a given volume of atmosphere along the LIDAR path are inferred from both the altitude-resolved backscatter signal as well as the attenuation of backscatter signal from altitudes above it. We present ALE profiles from the commissioning phase and demonstrate some of the astronomically interesting atmospheric information that can be gleaned from these data, including, but not limited to, total line-of-sight extinction. This project is funded by NSF Grant 0421087.

  13. Cardiac implantable electronic device and associated risk of infective endocarditis in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Lauge; Valeur, Nana; Bundgaard, Henning

    2017-01-01

    Aims: Patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) are at increased risk of infective endocarditis (IE) as are patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED). However, few data exist on the IE risk after AVR surgery in patients with a CIED. Methods and results: Using the Danish...

  14. The Risk of Electronic Audit and its Impact on The Quality Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainab Jabbar Yousif

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The auditing profession faces a challenge referred to as information technology ,Information technology has set the profession of auditing in constant challenge because it has made the world an open - limited system through communication technology . The importance of this research stems from the need to identify the nature of the  risks of electronic auditing  after turned  from manual checking to electronic auditing due to developments in technologies  in all sectors.  The risk of electronic auditing  the risk of information technology infrastructure and the risks of applications and other  related to communication processes, several conclusions have been reached, implementation of programs with goods specifications in the electronic auditing  process will lead to safety of work and  reduce the risk of electronic auditing . The research highlights these  risks and their impact on the quality of auditing .                                  

  15. Criterion 1: Conservation of biological diversity - Indicator 7: The status (threatened, rare, vulnerable, endangered, or extinct) of forest dependent species at risk of not maintaining viable breeding populations, as determined by legislation or scientific assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Taylor H. Ricketts; Carolyn Hull Sieg; Michael S. Knowles; John P. Fay; Jason McNees

    2003-01-01

    As the number of species classified as rare increases, the likelihood of species extinction also increases. This indicator focuses on species that have the greatest chance of being lost from the biotic community and therefore presages potential declines in species richness. The trend in species extinction since the turn of the 20th century varies by taxonomic group....

  16. The Structural Characterisation of Risk in the R&D Process of Functional Raw Materials for Electronic Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Chikamori, Yoji; Nasu, Seigo

    2017-01-01

    The electronic materials and electronics device industries remain important to Japan in spite of the general decline of the Japanese electronics industry. There is risk and uncertainty when developing functional materials in the electronics industry. However, studies examining the uncertainty and risk variables in the development of functional materials are scarce. This study examines incremental research and development (R&D) developed for raw functional materials for electronics. Our analys...

  17. Genetic sex determination and extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedrick, Philip W; Gadau, Jürgen; Page, Robert E

    2006-02-01

    Genetic factors can affect the probability of extinction either by increasing the effect of detrimental variants or by decreasing the potential for future adaptive responses. In a recent paper, Zayed and Packer demonstrate that low variation at a specific locus, the complementary sex determination (csd) locus in Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps), can result in a sharply increased probability of extinction. Their findings illustrate situations in which there is a feedback process between decreased genetic variation at the csd locus owing to genetic drift and decreased population growth, resulting in an extreme type of extinction vortex for these ecologically important organisms.

  18. Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

    2015-03-01

    The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  20. Reconsidering the extinction of ichthyosaurs

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Valentin

    2010-01-01

    Despite their extreme adaptation to life in open sea, ichthyosaurs were one of the first major groups of post-Triassic marine reptiles to disappear, at the end of Cenomanian, whereas plesiosaurs, mosasaurs and numerous families of marine crocodiles and sea turtles disappeared during the Cretaceous/Paleocene Extinction Event. It has been proposed that unique biological factors drove ichthyosaurs to extinction, namely a break in the food chain at the level of belemnites or a progressive ecologi...

  1. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

  2. Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

    2007-12-01

    A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as

  3. Neonatal Nurses Experience Unintended Consequences and Risks to Patient Safety With Electronic Health Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudding, Katherine M; Gephart, Sheila M; Carrington, Jane M

    2018-04-01

    In this article, we examine the unintended consequences of nurses' use of electronic health records. We define these as unforeseen events, change in workflow, or an unanticipated result of implementation and use of electronic health records. Unintended consequences experienced by nurses while using electronic health records have been well researched. However, few studies have focused on neonatal nurses, and it is unclear to what extent unintended consequences threaten patient safety. A new instrument called the Carrington-Gephart Unintended Consequences of Electronic Health Record Questionnaire has been validated, and secondary analysis using the tool explored the phenomena among neonatal nurses (N = 40). The purposes of this study were to describe unintended consequences of use of electronic health records for neonatal nurses and to explore relationships between the phenomena and characteristics of the nurse and the electronic health record. The most frequent unintended consequences of electronic health record use were due to interruptions, followed by a heavier workload due to the electronic health record, changes to the workflow, and altered communication patterns. Neonatal nurses used workarounds most often with motivation to better assist patients. Teamwork was moderately related to higher unintended consequences including patient safety risks (r = 0.427, P = .007), system design (r = 0.419, P = .009), and technology barriers (r = 0.431, P = .007). Communication about patients was reduced when patient safety risks were high (r = -0.437, P = .003). By determining the frequency with which neonatal nurses experience unintended consequences of electronic health record use, future research can be targeted to improve electronic health record design through customization, integration, and refinement to support patient safety and better outcomes.

  4. Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

    2016-10-01

    Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

    2013-12-01

    Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  6. Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Prevalence and risk factors of electronic cigarette use among adolescents: Data from four Swedish municipalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geidne Susanna

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available AIMS – To assess the prevalence rates and risk factors of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette use, with special focus on e-cigarettes containing nicotine, among grade 9 students (aged 15–16 years in four different municipalities in Sweden.

  8. Hazardous substances in electronics: the effects of European Union risk regulation on China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biedenkopf, K.

    2012-01-01

    This article argues that European Union (EU) risk regulation of hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) was both a trigger and formative factor in the development of similar Chinese regulation. The attractiveness and global interdependence of the EU market in EEE impelled a

  9. The extinction of the dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusatte, Stephen L; Butler, Richard J; Barrett, Paul M; Carrano, Matthew T; Evans, David C; Lloyd, Graeme T; Mannion, Philip D; Norell, Mark A; Peppe, Daniel J; Upchurch, Paul; Williamson, Thomas E

    2015-05-01

    Non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago, geologically coincident with the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) during an interval of massive volcanic eruptions and changes in temperature and sea level. There has long been fervent debate about how these events affected dinosaurs. We review a wealth of new data accumulated over the past two decades, provide updated and novel analyses of long-term dinosaur diversity trends during the latest Cretaceous, and discuss an emerging consensus on the extinction's tempo and causes. Little support exists for a global, long-term decline across non-avian dinosaur diversity prior to their extinction at the end of the Cretaceous. However, restructuring of latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas in North America led to reduced diversity of large-bodied herbivores, perhaps making communities more susceptible to cascading extinctions. The abruptness of the dinosaur extinction suggests a key role for the bolide impact, although the coarseness of the fossil record makes testing the effects of Deccan volcanism difficult. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  10. The Effect of the Extinction Procedure in Function-Based Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, Donna M.; Umbreit, John; Ferro, Jolenea B.; Liaupsin, Carl J.; Lane, Kathleen L.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we examined the contribution of the extinction procedure in function-based interventions implemented in the general education classrooms of three at-risk elementary-aged students. Function-based interventions included antecedent adjustments, reinforcement procedures, and function-matched extinction procedures. Using a combined ABC…

  11. Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

    2015-01-01

    Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care.

  12. Identification of Patient Safety Risks Associated with Electronic Health Records: A Software Quality Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginio, Luiz A; Ricarte, Ivan Luiz Marques

    2015-01-01

    Although Electronic Health Records (EHR) can offer benefits to the health care process, there is a growing body of evidence that these systems can also incur risks to patient safety when developed or used improperly. This work is a literature review to identify these risks from a software quality perspective. Therefore, the risks were classified based on the ISO/IEC 25010 software quality model. The risks identified were related mainly to the characteristics of "functional suitability" (i.e., software bugs) and "usability" (i.e., interface prone to user error). This work elucidates the fact that EHR quality problems can adversely affect patient safety, resulting in errors such as incorrect patient identification, incorrect calculation of medication dosages, and lack of access to patient data. Therefore, the risks presented here provide the basis for developers and EHR regulating bodies to pay attention to the quality aspects of these systems that can result in patient harm.

  13. Investigating the role of electronic insurance on decreasing exporting charges risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farideh MosallaiZade

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the electronic insurance (EI is one the electronic services, which is used in most countries, and that is one effective factor in developing the exporting products and services. On the other hand, the incurrence industry and very especially EI represent their importance both domestically and internationally. One of the ways for transferring the exporting risks is to transfer the risks to the insurer. This paper examines the characteristics of EI and the effects of decreasing the exporting risk charges. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in the form of Likert scale, the validity of the questionnaire is validated by some the experts' viewpoints and the Cronbach' alpha is measure as 0.794. The results of applying Freedman test have disclosed that facilitating export activities was the most important factor followed by access to target export market information.

  14. The atmospheric extinction of light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Stephen W; Powell, Sean; Carroll, Joshua; Cowley, Michael

    2016-01-01

    An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a travelling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficients for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm −1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm −1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. (paper)

  15. Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Greenwood, Alex D.

    2013-01-01

    Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters. PMID:23401844

  16. Path Forward to Space Solar Power using the O'Neill - Glaser Model Modified for Climate Change Demand and Considering the Increasing Risk of Human Self-Extinction if Confined to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Nall, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The cost of energy is humanity's economic exchange rate with the universe. Space solar power is the first great step that our technological species has to utilize the energy of its star. The classic Peter Glaser Solar Power Satellite, SPS, and later designs collect a large area of solar energy in space and beam it back to Earth for use in the electric grid, but even with optimistic launch costs and technology innovation a clear economic path is not evident using Earth launch of SPS. O Neill in 1969 solved the transportation costs problem by a model that uses lunar and asteroid materials to build SPS and locates the labor force permanently in space (O Neill free space habitats). This solution closes the economics and predicts large profits after 17-35 years. However the costs of time have up to now prevented this solution. We discuss a strategy to move forward in SPS with the motivations to stop global warming and prevent human selfextinction. There are near term steps that can be taken that place us on this path forward. First, we must reevaluate the technologies for the classic model and update the parameters to current technology. As technological capability continues to increase exponentially, we need to understand when the monetary potential energy hills are small as the technology gets larger. But the chance for self-extinction, if humanity remains in a single vulnerable habitat, also increased exponentially with time. The path forward is to identify investment points while assessing the risks of non-action.

  17. Research and Development for the Mu2e Extinction Monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mott, Casey Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Mu2e is a planned experiment to search for flavor-violating conversion from a muon to an electron. The experiment will use a pulsed 8 GeV proton beam to produce muons which will then stop in an aluminum target. Mu2e will search for the μ - + Al → e - + Al process. For Mu2e, an extinction rate of 10 -10 is required to reduce the backgrounds to an acceptable level. Extinction is the ratio of the amount of protons striking the production target between beam pulses to the number striking it during the beam pulse. One of the backgrounds, off-target interactions, was simulated using G4beamline and Fermilab's Grid setup to confirm that an extinction rate of 10 -10 is possible. The extinction level will be measured by the extinction monitor which will include scintillation counters read out by photomultiplier tubes. In order to build a beam time profile, low fake responses (after pulses) are needed in the photomultiplier tubes. This thesis determines the best combination of resistors, voltage, and other components that provide the lowest after pulse rate.

  18. Research and Development for the Mu2e Extinction Monitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mott, Casey Benjamin [Northern Illinois U.

    2016-01-01

    Mu2e is a planned experiment to search for flavor-violating conversion from a muon to an electron. The experiment will use a pulsed 8 GeV proton beam to produce muons which will then stop in an aluminum target. Mu2e will search for the $\\mu^- + Al \\rightarrow e^- + Al$ process. For Mu2e, an extinction rate of 10$^{-10}$ is required to reduce the backgrounds to an acceptable level. Extinction is the ratio of the amount of protons striking the production target between beam pulses to the number striking it during the beam pulse. One of the backgrounds, off-target interactions, was simulated using G4beamline and Fermilab's Grid setup to confirm that an extinction rate of 10$^{-10}$ is possible. The extinction level will be measured by the extinction monitor which will include scintillation counters read out by photomultiplier tubes. In order to build a beam time profile, low fake responses (after pulses) are needed in the photomultiplier tubes. This thesis determines the best combination of resistors, voltage, and other components that provide the lowest after pulse rate.

  19. Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into "Island" extirpations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ameca y Juárez, Eric I; Ellis, Edward A; Rodríguez-Luna, Ernesto

    2015-07-01

    Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory of primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population of Alouatta palliata mexicana as a study system, we developed a modeling framework to assess the relative contribution of hurricane disturbance and two types of human impacts, habitat loss, and hunting, on quasi-extinction risk. We found that the scenario with the highest level of disturbance generated a 21% increase in quasi-extinction risk by 40 years compared to scenarios of intermediate disturbance, and around 67% increase relative to that found in low disturbance scenarios. We also found that the probability of reaching quasi-extinction due to human disturbance alone was below 1% by 40 years, although such scenarios reduced population size by 70%, whereas the risk of quasi-extinction ranged between 3% and 65% for different scenarios of hurricane severity alone, in absence of human impacts. Our analysis moreover found that the quasi-extinction risk driven by hunting and hurricane disturbance was significantly lower than the quasi-extinction risk posed by human-driven habitat loss and hurricane disturbance. These models suggest that hurricane disturbance has the potential to exceed the risk posed by human impacts, and, in particular, to substantially increase the speed of the extinction vortex driven by habitat loss relative to that driven by hunting. Early mitigation of habitat loss constituted the best method for reducing quasi-extinction risk: the earlier habitat loss is halted, the less vulnerable the population becomes to hurricane disturbance. By using a well-studied population of A. p. mexicana, we help understand the demographic impacts that extreme environmental disturbance can trigger on isolated populations of taxa already endangered in other systems where long-term demographic data are not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure and lacking sufficiently evolved coping

  20. A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that

  1. Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J

    2017-04-24

    Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  2. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goede, A.P.H.; Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  3. Mass Extinctions and Supernova Explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korschinek, Gunther

    A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation or the direct exposure of lethal X-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere which result in a drop in the Earth's temperature, causing major glaciations of the Earth. The discovery of highly intensive gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which could be connected to SNe, initiated further discussions on possible life-threatening events in the Earth's history. The probability that GRBs hit the Earth is very low. Nevertheless, a past interaction of Earth with GRBs and/or SNe cannot be excluded and might even have been responsible for past extinction events.

  4. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  5. New theories about ancient extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spall, H.

    1986-01-01

    The abrupt disappearance of all the dinosaurs about 65 million years ago, along with perhaps half the plant species and other animals, has been one of the great geological mysteries. Clues to the cause of these extinctions have been scarce and open to many interpretations.

  6. Extinction debt on oceanic islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantis, Kostas A.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Ladle, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    the magnitude of such future extinction events has been hampered by potentially inaccurate assumptions about the slope of species-area relationships, which are habitat- and taxon-specific. We overcome this challenge by applying a method that uses the historical sequence of deforestation in the Azorean Islands...

  7. The currency and tempo of extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, H M; Lupia, R; Drinnan, A N; Burgman, M A

    2001-01-01

    This study examines estimates of extinction rates for the current purported biotic crisis and from the fossil record. Studies that compare current and geological extinctions sometimes use metrics that confound different sources of error and reflect different features of extinction processes. The per taxon extinction rate is a standard measure in paleontology that avoids some of the pitfalls of alternative approaches. Extinction rates reported in the conservation literature are rarely accompanied by measures of uncertainty, despite many elements of the calculations being subject to considerable error. We quantify some of the most important sources of uncertainty and carry them through the arithmetic of extinction rate calculations using fuzzy numbers. The results emphasize that estimates of current and future rates rely heavily on assumptions about the tempo of extinction and on extrapolations among taxa. Available data are unlikely to be useful in measuring magnitudes or trends in current extinction rates.

  8. Complementary sex determination substantially increases extinction proneness of haplodiploid populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zayed, Amro; Packer, Laurence

    2005-07-26

    The role of genetic factors in extinction is firmly established for diploid organisms, but haplodiploids have been considered immune to genetic load impacts because deleterious alleles are readily purged in haploid males. However, we show that single-locus complementary sex determination ancestral to the haplodiploid Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) imposes a substantial genetic load through homozygosity at the sex locus that results in the production of inviable or sterile diploid males. Using stochastic modeling, we have discovered that diploid male production (DMP) can initiate a rapid and previously uncharacterized extinction vortex. The extinction rate in haplodiploid populations with DMP is an order of magnitude greater than in its absence under realistic but conservative demographic parameter values. Furthermore, DMP alone can elevate the base extinction risk in haplodiploids by over an order of magnitude higher than that caused by inbreeding depression in threatened diploids. Thus, contrary to previous expectations, haplodiploids are more, rather than less, prone to extinction for genetic reasons. Our findings necessitate a fundamental shift in approaches to the conservation and population biology of these ecologically and economically crucial insects.

  9. Predicting Risk of Suicide Attempt Using History of Physical Illnesses From Electronic Medical Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wei; Tran, Truyen; Berk, Michael; Venkatesh, Svetha

    2016-01-01

    Background Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk. Objective The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data. Methods We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians. Conclusions This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk. PMID:27400764

  10. EARTH SCIENCE: Did Volcanoes Drive Ancient Extinctions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, R A

    2000-08-18

    With the publication in recent weeks of two papers on a mass extinction 183 million years ago, researchers can add five suggestive cases to the list of extinctions with known causes. These extinctions coincide with massive outpourings of lava, accompanied by signs that global warming threw the ocean-atmosphere system out of whack. Although no one can yet pin any of these mass extinctions with certainty on the volcanic eruptions, scientists say it's unlikely that they're all coincidences.

  11. An investigation of the interstellar extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, P.F.; Aitken, D.K.; Melbourne Univ., Point Cook

    1984-01-01

    The 10 μm extinction towards six WC8 or WC9 Wolf-Rayet stars is investigated. All objects show smooth dust emission suffering silicate absorption with depths well correlated with the extinction in the visible. The de-reddened spectra are well represented by emission from featureless grain components, possibly from iron or carbon grains. The extinction to the stars is found to be dominantly interstellar in origin with little extinction from the circumstellar shell. (author)

  12. Validation of a Delirium Risk Assessment Using Electronic Medical Record Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudolph, James L; Doherty, Kelly; Kelly, Brittany; Driver, Jane A; Archambault, Elizabeth

    2016-03-01

    Identifying patients at risk for delirium allows prompt application of prevention, diagnostic, and treatment strategies; but is rarely done. Once delirium develops, patients are more likely to need posthospitalization skilled care. This study developed an a priori electronic prediction rule using independent risk factors identified in a National Center of Clinical Excellence meta-analysis and validated the ability to predict delirium in 2 cohorts. Retrospective analysis followed by prospective validation. Tertiary VA Hospital in New England. A total of 27,625 medical records of hospitalized patients and 246 prospectively enrolled patients admitted to the hospital. The electronic delirium risk prediction rule was created using data obtained from the patient electronic medical record (EMR). The primary outcome, delirium, was identified 2 ways: (1) from the EMR (retrospective cohort) and (2) clinical assessment on enrollment and daily thereafter (prospective participants). We assessed discrimination of the delirium prediction rule with the C-statistic. Secondary outcomes were length of stay and discharge to rehabilitation. Retrospectively, delirium was identified in 8% of medical records (n = 2343); prospectively, delirium during hospitalization was present in 26% of participants (n = 64). In the retrospective cohort, medical record delirium was identified in 2%, 3%, 11%, and 38% of the low, intermediate, high, and very high-risk groups, respectively (C-statistic = 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.80-0.82). Prospectively, the electronic prediction rule identified delirium in 15%, 18%, 31%, and 55% of these groups (C-statistic = 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.77). Compared with low-risk patients, those at high- or very high delirium risk had increased length of stay (5.7 ± 5.6 vs 3.7 ± 2.7 days; P = .001) and higher rates of discharge to rehabilitation (8.9% vs 20.8%; P = .02). Automatic calculation of delirium risk using an EMR algorithm identifies patients at

  13. Further Evidence of Auditory Extinction in Aphasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Rebecca Shisler; Basilakos, Alexandra; Love-Myers, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Preliminary research ( Shisler, 2005) suggests that auditory extinction in individuals with aphasia (IWA) may be connected to binding and attention. In this study, the authors expanded on previous findings on auditory extinction to determine the source of extinction deficits in IWA. Method: Seventeen IWA (M[subscript age] = 53.19 years)…

  14. The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmela, Olli

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered

  15. The effect of introducing increased-reliability-risk electronic components into 3rd generation telecommunications systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmela, Olli [Nokia Networks, P.O. Box 301, 00045 Nokia Group (Finland)]. E-mail: olli.salmela@nokia.com

    2005-08-01

    In this paper, the dependability of 3rd generation telecommunications network systems is studied. Special attention is paid to a case where increased-reliability-risk electronic components are introduced to the system. The paper consists of three parts: First, the reliability data of four electronic components is considered. This includes statistical analysis of the reliability test data, thermo-mechanical finite element analysis of the printed wiring board structures, and based on those, a field reliability estimate of the components is constructed. Second, the component level reliability data is introduced into the network element reliability analysis. This is accomplished by using a reliability block diagram technique and Monte Carlo simulation of the network element. The end result of the second part is a reliability estimate of the network element with and without the high-risk component. Third, the whole 3rd generation network having multiple network elements is analyzed. In this part, the criticality of introducing high-risk electronic components into a 3rd generation telecommunications network is considered.

  16. Implementation of transparency and accountability under risk-based audit of electronic procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. Pysmenna

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The research analyzes the international norms and practice of realization of the purpose of state audit authorities. It is established that the activities of the state audit are aimed at improving the lives of citizens, and for this purpose the control authority, through the implementation of the principles, should achieve the goals of strengthening the principles of accountability, transparency and integrity in government and public institutions, demonstrating constant importance for citizens, parliament and other stakeholders, maintaining integrity. The study of domestic legislation on state audit in relation to compliance with international norms is conducted; the gaps and inconsistencies regarding compliance with the basic principles of transparency and accountability that ensure the purpose of the control authority activities are identified. It is determined that in order to formulate reports on the results of public procurement audits for informing the public, it is necessary to improve and apply a broader methodology of risk-based audit. The article investigates the preconditions and identifies the risks of the electronic procurement system, provides their characteristics and identifies the areas, which are negatively affected by the risks. The author identifies the information components and management functions that cannot be performed qualitatively because of the existence of risks and threats; the author also specifies the procedures for internal control over the process of administration of public procurement, and if the procedures are faced with failure, it increases the identified risks. It is proved that the proposed method of identification and evaluation of the risks of the electronic public procurement system can be used not only as a verification tool but also as the basis for compilation of reports due to the grouping of violations of the negative consequences of risks for the functioning of the system. This will ensure the

  17. Co-extinction in a host-parasite network: identifying key hosts for network stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallas, Tad; Cornelius, Emily

    2015-08-17

    Parasites comprise a substantial portion of total biodiversity. Ultimately, this means that host extinction could result in many secondary extinctions of obligate parasites and potentially alter host-parasite network structure. Here, we examined a highly resolved fish-parasite network to determine key hosts responsible for maintaining parasite diversity and network structure (quantified here as nestedness and modularity). We evaluated four possible host extinction orders and compared the resulting co-extinction dynamics to random extinction simulations; including host removal based on estimated extinction risk, parasite species richness and host level contributions to nestedness and modularity. We found that all extinction orders, except the one based on realistic extinction risk, resulted in faster declines in parasite diversity and network structure relative to random biodiversity loss. Further, we determined species-level contributions to network structure were best predicted by parasite species richness and host family. Taken together, we demonstrate that a small proportion of hosts contribute substantially to network structure and that removal of these hosts results in rapid declines in parasite diversity and network structure. As network stability can potentially be inferred through measures of network structure, our findings may provide insight into species traits that confer stability.

  18. Molar extinction coefficients of some fatty acids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandhu, G.K.; Singh, K.; Lark, B.S.

    2002-01-01

    ) and stearic acid (C18H36O2), has been measured at the photon energies 81, 356, 511, 662, 1173 and 1332 keV. Experimental values for the molar extinction coefficient, the effective atomic number and the electron density have been derived and compared with theoretical calculations. There is good agreement......The attenuation of gamma rays in some fatty acids, viz. formic acid (CH2O2), acetic acid (C2H4O2), propionic acid (C3H6O2), butyric acid (C4H8O2), n-hexanoic acid (C6H12O2), n-caprylic acid (C8H16O2), lauric acid (C12H24O2), myristic acid (C14H28O2), palmitic acid (C16H32O2), oleic acid (C18H34O2...

  19. Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

    2014-01-01

    For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

  20. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  1. Improving prediction of fall risk among nursing home residents using electronic medical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marier, Allison; Olsho, Lauren E W; Rhodes, William; Spector, William D

    2016-03-01

    Falls are physically and financially costly, but may be preventable with targeted intervention. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) is one potential source of information on fall risk factors among nursing home residents, but its limited breadth and relatively infrequent updates may limit its practical utility. Richer, more frequently updated data from electronic medical records (EMRs) may improve ability to identify individuals at highest risk for falls. The authors applied a repeated events survival model to analyze MDS 3.0 and EMR data for 5129 residents in 13 nursing homes within a single large California chain that uses a centralized EMR system from a leading vendor. Estimated regression parameters were used to project resident fall probability. The authors examined the proportion of observed falls within each projected fall risk decile to assess improvements in predictive power from including EMR data. In a model incorporating fall risk factors from the MDS only, 28.6% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile. In an alternative specification incorporating more frequently updated measures for the same risk factors from the EMR data, 32.3% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile, a 13% increase over the base MDS-only specification. Incorporating EMR data improves ability to identify those at highest risk for falls relative to prediction using MDS data alone. These improvements stem chiefly from the greater frequency with which EMR data are updated, with minimal additional gains from availability of additional risk factor variables. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Infrared light extinction by charged dielectric core-coat particles

    OpenAIRE

    Thiessen, Elena; Heinisch, Rafael L.; Bronold, Franz X.; Fehske, Holger

    2014-01-01

    We study the effect of surplus electrons on the infrared extinction of dielectric particles with a core-coat structure and propose to use it for an optical measurement of the particle charge in a dusty plasma. The particles consist of an inner core with negative and an outer coat with positive electron affinity. Both the core and the coat give rise to strong transverse optical phonon resonances, leading to anomalous light scattering in the infrared. Due to the radial profile of the electron a...

  3. Rescaling of temporal expectations during extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, Michael R.; Walsh, Carolyn; Balsam, Peter D

    2016-01-01

    Previous research suggests that extinction learning is temporally specific. Changing the CS duration between training and extinction can facilitate the loss of the CR within the extinction session but impairs long-term retention of extinction. In two experiments using conditioned magazine approach with rats, we examined the relation between temporal specificity of extinction and CR timing. In Experiment 1 rats were trained on a 12-s, fixed CS-US interval and then extinguished with CS presentations that were 6, 12, or 24 s in duration. The design of Experiment 2 was the same except rats were trained using partial rather than continuous reinforcement. In both experiments, extending the CS duration in extinction facilitated the diminution of CRs during the extinction session, but shortening the CS duration failed to slow extinction. In addition, extending (but not shortening) the CS duration caused temporal rescaling of the CR, in that the peak CR rate migrated later into the trial over the course of extinction training. This migration partially accounted for the faster loss of the CR when the CS duration was extended. Results are incompatible with the hypothesis that extinction is driven by cumulative CS exposure and suggest that temporally extended nonreinforced CS exposure reduces conditioned responding via temporal displacement rather than through extinction per se. PMID:28045291

  4. Extinction Coefficient of Gold Nanostars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Puig, Helena; Tam, Justina O; Yen, Chun-Wan; Gehrke, Lee; Hamad-Schifferli, Kimberly

    2015-07-30

    Gold nanostars (NStars) are highly attractive for biological applications due to their surface chemistry, facile synthesis and optical properties. Here, we synthesize NStars in HEPES buffer at different HEPES/Au ratios, producing NStars of different sizes and shapes, and therefore varying optical properties. We measure the extinction coefficient of the synthesized NStars at their maximum surface plasmon resonances (SPR), which range from 5.7 × 10 8 to 26.8 × 10 8 M -1 cm -1 . Measured values correlate with those obtained from theoretical models of the NStars using the discrete dipole approximation (DDA), which we use to simulate the extinction spectra of the nanostars. Finally, because NStars are typically used in biological applications, we conjugate DNA and antibodies to the NStars and calculate the footprint of the bound biomolecules.

  5. Dinasour extinction and volcanic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gledhill, J. A.

    There is at present some controversy about the reason for the mass extinction of dinosaurs and other forms of life at the end of the Cretaceous. A suggestion by Alvarez et al. [1980] that this was due to the collision of the earth with a meteorite 10 km or so in diameter has excited considerable interest [Silver and Schultz, 1982] and also some criticism [Stanley, 1984]. A recent publication [Wood, 1984] describing the catastrophic effects of a relatively minor lava flow in Iceland suggests that intense volcanic activity could have played a large part in the extinctions. In this letter it is pointed out that the Deccan lava flows in India took place in the appropriate time and may well have been of sufficient magnitude to be a major factor in the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary catastrophe.

  6. [Extinction and Reconsolidation of Memory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuzina, A B; Balaban, P M

    2015-01-01

    Retrieval of memory followed by reconsolidation can strengthen a memory, while retrieval followed by extinction results in a decrease of memory performance due to weakening of existing memory or formation of a competing memory. In our study we analyzed the behavior and responses of identified neurons involved in the network underlying aversive learning in terrestrial snail Helix, and made an attempt to describe the conditions in which the retrieval of memory leads either to extinction or reconsolidation. In the network underlying the withdrawal behavior, sensory neurons, premotor interneurons, motor neurons, and modulatory for this network serotonergic neurons are identified and recordings from representatives of these groups were made before and after aversive learning. In the network underlying feeding behavior, the premotor modulatory serotonergic interneurons and motor neurons involved in motor program of feeding are identified. Analysis of changes in neural activity after aversive learning showed that modulatory neurons of feeding behavior do not demonstrate any changes (sometimes a decrease of responses to food was observed), while responses to food in withdrawal behavior premotor interneurons changed qualitatively, from under threshold EPSPs to spike discharges. Using a specific for serotonergic neurons neurotoxin 5,7-DiHT it was shown previously that the serotonergic system is necessary for the aversive learning, but is not necessary for maintenance and retrieval of this memory. These results suggest that the serotonergic neurons that are necessary as part of a reinforcement for developing the associative changes in the network may be not necessary for the retrieval of memory. The hypothesis presented in this review concerns the activity of the "reinforcement" serotonergic neurons that is suggested to be the gate condition for the choice between extinction/reconsolidation triggered by memory retrieval: if these serotonergic neurons do not respond during the

  7. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosman, Renske C; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might be explained by disgust's adaptive function to motivate avoidance from contamination threats (pathogens) that cannot be readily detected and are invisible to the naked eye. Therefore, the mere visual presentation of unreinforced disgust eliciting stimuli might not be sufficient to correct a previously acquired threat value of the CS+. Following this, the current study tested whether the efficacy of CS-only exposure can be improved by providing additional safety information about the CS+. For the CSs we included two neutral items a pea soup and a sausage roll, whereas for the Unconditioned Stimulus (US) we used one video clip of a woman vomiting and a neutral one about glass blowing. The additional safety information was conveyed by allowing actual contact with the CS+ or by observing an actress eating the food items representing the CS+. When additional safety information was provided via allowing direct contact with the CS+, there was a relatively strong post-extinction increase in participants' willingness-to-eat the CS+. This beneficial effect was still evident at one-week follow up. Also self-reported disgust was lower at one-week follow up when additional safety information was provided. The current findings help explain why disgust is relatively insensitive to CS-only extinction procedures, and provide helpful starting points to improve interventions that are aimed to reduce distress in disgust-related psychopathology.

  8. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renske C Bosman

    Full Text Available Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might be explained by disgust's adaptive function to motivate avoidance from contamination threats (pathogens that cannot be readily detected and are invisible to the naked eye. Therefore, the mere visual presentation of unreinforced disgust eliciting stimuli might not be sufficient to correct a previously acquired threat value of the CS+. Following this, the current study tested whether the efficacy of CS-only exposure can be improved by providing additional safety information about the CS+. For the CSs we included two neutral items a pea soup and a sausage roll, whereas for the Unconditioned Stimulus (US we used one video clip of a woman vomiting and a neutral one about glass blowing. The additional safety information was conveyed by allowing actual contact with the CS+ or by observing an actress eating the food items representing the CS+. When additional safety information was provided via allowing direct contact with the CS+, there was a relatively strong post-extinction increase in participants' willingness-to-eat the CS+. This beneficial effect was still evident at one-week follow up. Also self-reported disgust was lower at one-week follow up when additional safety information was provided. The current findings help explain why disgust is relatively insensitive to CS-only extinction procedures, and provide helpful starting points to improve interventions that are aimed to reduce distress in disgust-related psychopathology.

  9. Extinction Coefficient of Gold Nanostars

    OpenAIRE

    de Puig, Helena; Tam, Justina O.; Yen, Chun-Wan; Gehrke, Lee; Hamad-Schifferli, Kimberly

    2015-01-01

    Gold nanostars (NStars) are highly attractive for biological applications due to their surface chemistry, facile synthesis and optical properties. Here, we synthesize NStars in HEPES buffer at different HEPES/Au ratios, producing NStars of different sizes and shapes, and therefore varying optical properties. We measure the extinction coefficient of the synthesized NStars at their maximum surface plasmon resonances (SPR), which range from 5.7 × 108 to 26.8 × 108 M−1cm−1. Measured values correl...

  10. Patterning of a compound eye on an extinct dipteran wing

    OpenAIRE

    Dinwiddie, April; Rachootin, Stan

    2010-01-01

    We have discovered unexpected similarities between a novel and characteristic wing organ in an extinct biting midge from Baltic amber, Eohelea petrunkevitchi, and the surface of a dipteran's compound eye. Scanning electron microscope images now reveal vestigial mechanoreceptors between the facets of the organ. We interpret Eohelea's wing organ as the blending of these two developmental systems: the formation and patterning of the cuticle in the eye and of the wing.

  11. Extinction correction and synchrotron radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suortti, P.

    1983-01-01

    The primary extinction factor ysub(p) is defined as the ratio of the integrated reflection from a coherently diffracting domain to the integrated kinematical reflection from the same domain. When ysub(p) is larger than 0.5 it may be approximated by ysub(p)= exp[-(αdelta) 2 ], where α is about 0.5 and delta the average size of the coherent domain when measured in units of the extinction length Λ, delta = D/Λ. Transfer equations are applied to symmetrical Laue diffraction, and the reflectivity per unit length, sigma(epsilon) is solved from the measured reflecting ratio as a function of the rocking angle epsilon = theta -thetasub(B). Measurements with conventional x-ray sources are made on single crystal slabs of Be and Si using AgKβ, MoKα 1 and CuKα radiation. The primary extinction factor ysub(p)(epsilon) is solved from a point-by-point comparison of two measurements where the extinction length Λ is changed by varying the polarization and/or wavelength of the x-ray beam. The results show that primary and secondary extinction are strongly correlated, and that the customary assumption of independent size and orientation distributions of crystal mosaics is unjustified. The structure factors for Be and Si show close agreement with other recent measurements and calculations. The limitations of the method are discussed in length, particularly the effects of beam divergences and incoherence of the rays in the crystal. It is concluded that under typical experimental conditions the requirements of the theory are met. Practical limitations arising from the use of characteristic wavelengths and unpolarized radiation prohibit the use of the full potential of the method. The properties of a synchrotron radiation source are compared with a conventional x-ray source, and it is demonstrated that the experimental limitations can be removed by the use of synchrotron radiation. A diffraction experiment with synchrotron radiation is outlined, as well as generalization of the

  12. Perceived quality, perceived risk and customer trust affecting customer loyalty of environmentally friendly electronics products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalinthorn Marakanon

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, industrial business competition causes producers to be aware of quality, price, and variety in developing new products to meet the consumers' needs. This research reviewed the literature on green marketing and proposes a new conceptual framework of customer loyalty. It uses four constructs—perceived quality, perceived risk, customer trust, and customer loyalty—in the context of environmentally friendly electronics products in Thailand. This research employed an empirical study using the questionnaire survey method to verify the hypotheses. Data were obtained from 420 consumers who bought and used environmentally friendly electronic products, particularly mobile phones, computers, and laptops using a purposive sampling method. The data were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA and structural equation modeling (SEM. The results showed that perceived risk and customer trust had a direct effect on customer loyalty while perceived quality had an indirect effect on customer loyalty via customer trust. Furthermore, perceived quality had direct effects on perceived risk and customer trust. The results from the final SEM model were used to confirm the proposed relationships among the variables.

  13. Risk factors for radiotherapy incidents and impact of an online electronic reporting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, David W.; Cheetham, Lynn; Marvelde, Luc te; Bressel, Mathias; Kron, Tomas; Gill, Suki; Tai, Keen Hun; Ball, David; Rose, William; Silva, Linas; Foroudi, Farshad

    2014-01-01

    Background and purpose: To ascertain the rate, type, significance, trends and the potential risk factors associated with radiotherapy incidents in a large academic department. Materials and methods: Data for all radiotherapy activities from July 2001 to January 2011 were reviewed from radiotherapy incident reporting forms. Patient and treatment data were obtained from the radiotherapy record and verification database (MOSAIQ) and the patient database (HOSPRO). Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine variables associated with radiotherapy incidents. Results: In that time, 65,376 courses of radiotherapy were delivered with a reported incident rate of 2.64 per 100 courses. The rate of incidents per course increased (1.96 per 100 courses to 3.52 per 100 courses, p < 0.001) whereas the proportion of reported incidents resulting in >5% deviation in dose (10.50 to 2.75%, p < 0.001) had decreased after the introduction of an online electronic reporting system. The following variables were associated with an increased rate of incidents: afternoon treatment time, paediatric patients, males, inpatients, palliative plans, head-and-neck, skin, sarcoma and haematological malignancies. In general, complex plans were associated with higher incidence rates. Conclusion: Radiotherapy incidents were infrequent and most did not result in significant dose deviation. A number of risk factors were identified and these could be used to highlight high-risk cases in the future. Introduction of an online electronic reporting system resulted in a significant increase in the number of incidents being reported

  14. Identifying primary care patients at risk for future diabetes and cardiovascular disease using electronic health records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrader Peter

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prevention of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD is possible but identification of at-risk patients for targeting interventions is a challenge in primary care. Methods We analyzed electronic health record (EHR data for 122,715 patients from 12 primary care practices. We defined patients with risk factor clustering using metabolic syndrome (MetS characteristics defined by NCEP-ATPIII criteria; if missing, we used surrogate characteristics, and validated this approach by directly measuring risk factors in a subset of 154 patients. For subjects with at least 3 of 5 MetS criteria measured at baseline (2003-2004, we defined 3 categories: No MetS (0 criteria; At-risk-for MetS (1-2 criteria; and MetS (≥ 3 criteria. We examined new diabetes and CHD incidence, and resource utilization over the subsequent 3-year period (2005-2007 using age-sex-adjusted regression models to compare outcomes by MetS category. Results After excluding patients with diabetes/CHD at baseline, 78,293 patients were eligible for analysis. EHR-defined MetS had 73% sensitivity and 91% specificity for directly measured MetS. Diabetes incidence was 1.4% in No MetS; 4.0% in At-risk-for MetS; and 11.0% in MetS (p MetS vs No MetS = 6.86 [6.06-7.76]; CHD incidence was 3.2%, 5.3%, and 6.4% respectively (p Conclusion Risk factor clustering in EHR data identifies primary care patients at increased risk for new diabetes, CHD and higher resource utilization.

  15. The ethics of reviving long extinct species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandler, Ronald

    2014-04-01

    There now appears to be a plausible pathway for reviving species that have been extinct for several decades, centuries, or even millennia. I conducted an ethical analysis of de-extinction of long extinct species. I assessed several possible ethical considerations in favor of pursuing de-extinction: that it is a matter of justice; that it would reestablish lost value; that it would create new value; and that society needs it as a conservation last resort. I also assessed several possible ethical arguments against pursuing de-extinction: that it is unnatural; that it could cause animal suffering; that it could be ecologically problematic or detrimental to human health; and that it is hubristic. There are reasons in favor of reviving long extinct species, and it can be ethically acceptable to do so. However, the reasons in favor of pursuing de-extinction do not have to do with its usefulness in species conservation; rather, they concern the status of revived species as scientific and technological achievements, and it would be ethically problematic to promote de-extinction as a significant conservation strategy, because it does not prevent species extinctions, does not address the causes of extinction, and could be detrimental to some species conservation efforts. Moreover, humanity does not have a responsibility or obligation to pursue de-extinction of long extinct species, and reviving them does not address any urgent problem. Therefore, legitimate ecological, political, animal welfare, legal, or human health concerns associated with a de-extinction (and reintroduction) must be thoroughly addressed for it to be ethically acceptable. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  17. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Bergerot

    Full Text Available Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known.And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales.In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  18. When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

  19. A Comparative Health Risk Assessment of Electronic Cigarettes and Conventional Cigarettes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinsong Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although some studies have identified hazardous substances in electronic cigarette (EC liquids and emissions, there is limited information about the health risks of using ECs. Methods: In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA health risk assessment model and findings of a literature review were used to determine and profile hazards. Focus was put on the toxicants reported in the literature on conventional cigarette (CC smoke that most strongly associated with adverse health effects. To evaluate their health risks, dose-response relationships and standard-use conditions were used to estimate average hazard exposures and to calculate the overall health risks of ECs and CCs, benchmarked against international guideline levels for each hazard. Results: Four hazards (acrolein, diethylene glycol, propylene glycol and cadmium reported in EC emissions and seven hazards (acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, cadmium, CO, 4-(methylnitrosamino-1-(3-pyridyl-1-butanone (NNK, N′-nitrosonornicotine (NNN reported in CC emissions had maximum exposure levels higher than the guideline levels. Two hazards (acrolein, propylene glycol in EC emissions and five hazards (acetaldehyde, acrolein, formaldehyde, cadmium, NNN in CC emissions had average exposure levels higher than the guideline levels. Conclusions: Based on the conditions of use, ECs should be a safer nicotine-delivery product than CCs.

  20. Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuussaari, Mikko; Bommarco, Riccardo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Helm, Aveliina; Krauss, Jochen; Lindborg, Regina; Ockinger, Erik; Pärtel, Meelis; Pino, Joan; Rodà, Ferran; Stefanescu, Constantí; Teder, Tiit; Zobel, Martin; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

    2009-10-01

    Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss or degradation. Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Species with long generation times and populations near their extinction threshold are most likely to have an extinction debt. However, as long as a species that is predicted to become extinct still persists, there is time for conservation measures such as habitat restoration and landscape management. Standardized long-term monitoring, more high-quality empirical studies on different taxa and ecosystems and further development of analytical methods will help to better quantify extinction debt and protect biodiversity.

  1. Temporal specificity of extinction in autoshaping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, Michael R; Yang, Cynthia; Ohyama, Tatsuya; Balsam, Peter D

    2004-07-01

    Three experiments investigated the effects of varying the conditioned stimulus (CS) duration between training and extinction. Ring doves (Streptopelia risoria) were autoshaped on a fixed CS-unconditioned stimulus (US) interval and extinguished with CS presentations that were longer, shorter, or the same as the training duration. During a subsequent test session, the training CS duration was reintroduced. Results suggest that the cessation of responding during an extinction session is controlled by generalization of excitation between the training and extinction CSs and by the number of nonreinforced CS presentations. Transfer of extinction to the training CS is controlled by the similarity between the extinction and training CSs. Extinction learning is temporally specific. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

  2. Open-field exposure facilitates consummatory extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justel, Nadia; Psyrdellis, Mariana; Pautassi, Ricardo M

    2016-12-07

    During extinction, the organism learns that a conditioned stimulus or a conditioned response is no longer associated with an unconditioned stimulus, and as a consequence, a decrement in the response is presented. The exposure to novel situations (e.g. exploration of a novel open field) has been used widely to modulate (i.e. either enhance or deteriorate) learning and memory. The aim of the present study was to test whether open-field exposure could modulate consummatory extinction. The results indicated that open-field exposure accelerated the extinction response (i.e. experimental animals provided novelty exposure had lower consummatory behavior than control animals) when applied before - but not after - the first extinction trial, or when applied before the second extinction trial. The results suggest that environmental treatments such as novelty exposure provide a valuable, nonpharmacological alternative to potentially modulate extinction processes.

  3. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Segura

    Full Text Available Adaptive limiter control (ALC and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects. We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  4. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

  5. Light extinction in the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laulainen, N.

    1992-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles originating from natural sources, such as volcanos and sulfur-bearing gas emissions from the oceans, and from human sources, such as sulfur emissions from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, strongly affect visual air quality and are suspected to significantly affect radiative climate forcing of the planet. During the daytime, aerosols obscure scenic vistas, while at night they diminish our ability to observe stellar objects. Scattering of light is the main means by which aerosols attenuate and redistribute light in the atmosphere and by which aerosols can alter and reduce visibility and potentially modify the energy balance of the planet. Trends and seasonal variability of atmospheric aerosol loading, such as column-integrated light extinction or optical depth, and how they may affect potential climate change have been difficult to quantify because there have been few observations made of important aerosol optical parameters, such as optical depth, over the globe and over time and often these are of uneven quality. To address questions related to possible climate change, there is a pressing need to acquire more high-quality aerosol optical depth data. Extensive deployment of improved solar radiometers over the next few years will provide higher-quality extinction data over a wider variety of locations worldwide. An often overlooked source of turbidity data, however, is available from astronomical observations, particularly stellar photoelectric photometry observations. With the exception of the Project ASTRA articles published almost 20 years ago, few of these data ever appear in the published literature. This paper will review the current status of atmospheric extinction observations, as highlighted by the ASTRA work and augmented by more recent solar radiometry measurements

  6. Sexual selection protects against extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumley, Alyson J; Michalczyk, Łukasz; Kitson, James J N; Spurgin, Lewis G; Morrison, Catriona A; Godwin, Joanne L; Dickinson, Matthew E; Martin, Oliver Y; Emerson, Brent C; Chapman, Tracey; Gage, Matthew J G

    2015-06-25

    Reproduction through sex carries substantial costs, mainly because only half of sexual adults produce offspring. It has been theorized that these costs could be countered if sex allows sexual selection to clear the universal fitness constraint of mutation load. Under sexual selection, competition between (usually) males and mate choice by (usually) females create important intraspecific filters for reproductive success, so that only a subset of males gains paternity. If reproductive success under sexual selection is dependent on individual condition, which is contingent to mutation load, then sexually selected filtering through 'genic capture' could offset the costs of sex because it provides genetic benefits to populations. Here we test this theory experimentally by comparing whether populations with histories of strong versus weak sexual selection purge mutation load and resist extinction differently. After evolving replicate populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum for 6 to 7 years under conditions that differed solely in the strengths of sexual selection, we revealed mutation load using inbreeding. Lineages from populations that had previously experienced strong sexual selection were resilient to extinction and maintained fitness under inbreeding, with some families continuing to survive after 20 generations of sib × sib mating. By contrast, lineages derived from populations that experienced weak or non-existent sexual selection showed rapid fitness declines under inbreeding, and all were extinct after generation 10. Multiple mutations across the genome with individually small effects can be difficult to clear, yet sum to a significant fitness load; our findings reveal that sexual selection reduces this load, improving population viability in the face of genetic stress.

  7. Comment on the extinct paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, D.M.

    1983-11-01

    The extinction paradox is a contradiction between geometrical optics results which predict that at high frequencies the scattering cross section of an object should equal its geometrical cross section and rigorous scattering theory which shows that at high frequencies the scattering cross section approaches twice the geometrical cross section of the object. Confusion about the reason for this paradox persists today even though the nature of the paradox was correctly identified many years ago by Brillouin. The resolution of the paradox is restated and illustrated with an example, and then the implications to the interpretation of scattering cross sections are identified

  8. Presidential address: distinction or extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressman, Barry D

    2008-10-01

    Despite its continuing scientific successes in imaging, radiology as a specialty is faced with a very difficult and competitive environment. Nonradiologists are more and more interested in vertically integrating imaging into their practices, while teleradiology and picture archiving and communication systems are resulting in the greater isolation of radiologists. Commoditization is a realistic and devastating threat to the survival and professionalism of the specialty. To remain viable as a specialty, radiologists must elevate their practice by subspecializing, becoming more involved with clinical care, and actively interacting with patients and referring clinicians. Distinction will prevent extinction.

  9. Methylphenidate enhances extinction of contextual fear

    OpenAIRE

    Abraham, Antony D.; Cunningham, Christopher L.; Lattal, K. Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH, Ritalin) is a norepinephrine and dopamine transporter blocker that is widely used in humans for treatment of attention deficit disorder and narcolepsy. Although there is some evidence that targeted microinjections of MPH may enhance fear acquisition, little is known about the effect of MPH on fear extinction. Here, we show that MPH, administered before or immediately following extinction of contextual fear, will enhance extinction retention in C57BL/6 mice. Animals that ...

  10. Are Humans too Numerous to Become Extinct?

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2009-01-01

    Some claim that humans are too numerous to become extinct. However, passenger pigeon, once the most numerous birds on the planet, are now extinct. For years, humankind has been damaging its habitat, discharging toxic chemicals into the environment, and having harmful effects on agricultural productivity due to climate change. Humankind s extinction depends on the continuation of various human activities including economic growth, addiction to fossil fuel, over consumption, overpopulation, oc...

  11. The Astronomical Pulse of Global Extinction Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F.V. Lewis

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The linkage between astronomical cycles and the periodicity of mass extinctions is reviewed and discussed. In particular, the apparent 26 million year cycle of global extinctions may be related to the motion of the solar system around the galaxy, especially perpendicular to the galactic plane. The potential relevance of Milankovitch cycles is also explored in the light of current evidence for the possible causes of extinction events over a geological timescale.

  12. Long-term maintenance of immediate or delayed extinction is determined by the extinction-test interval

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

    2010-01-01

    Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively long extinction-test interval was used; a relatively short extinction-test interval yielded the opposite result (Experiment 2). Previous data appear co...

  13. An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

    2016-03-01

    Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species

  14. Intergalactic extinction and the deceleration parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meinel, R.

    1981-01-01

    The deceleration parameter q 0 is calculated from the relation between apparent magnitudes m of the brightest galaxies in clusters and their redshifts z considering an intergalactic extinction. The calculation is valid for a Friedman universe, homogeneously filled with dust grains, assuming the extinction to be 0.5 mag at z = 1 and aΛ -1 -law of extinction (according to Oleak and Schmidt 1976). Using the m,z-values of Kristian, Sandage, and Westphal (1978) a formal value of q 0 approximately 2.1 is obtained instead of q 0 approximately 1.6 without consideration of intergalactic extinction. (author)

  15. Interstellar extinction in the Large Magellanic Cloud

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandy, K.; Morgan, D.H.; Willis, A.J.; Wilson, R.; Gondhalekar, P.M.; Houziaux, L.

    1980-01-01

    Recent UV observations together with complementary visible data of several reddened and comparison stars of similar spectral types in the Large Magellanic Cloud have been used to study the interstellar extinction in that galaxy. Most of the reddened stars studied here are located within 2 0 of 30 Doradus and show remarkably high extinction in the far UV, suggesting a large abundance of small particles. From the optical wavelength to 2,600 A the normalised extinction curves of the LMC stars are similar to the mean galactic extinction law. (author)

  16. Mass extinctions vs. uniformitarianism in biological evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bak, P.; Paczuski, M.

    1995-12-31

    It is usually believed that Darwin`s theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of co-evolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criticality and describe some general features of the extinction pattern in the fossil record.

  17. β-Adrenoceptor Blockade in the Basolateral Amygdala, But Not the Medial Prefrontal Cortex, Rescues the Immediate Extinction Deficit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giustino, Thomas F; Seemann, Jocelyn R; Acca, Gillian M; Goode, Travis D; Fitzgerald, Paul J; Maren, Stephen

    2017-12-01

    Early psychological interventions, such as exposure therapy, rely on extinction learning to reduce the development of stress- and trauma-related disorders. However, recent research suggests that extinction often fails to reduce fear when administered soon after trauma. This immediate extinction deficit (IED) may be due to stress-induced dysregulation of neural circuits involved in extinction learning. We have shown that systemic β-adrenoceptor blockade with propranolol rescues the IED, but impairs delayed extinction. Here we sought to determine the neural locus of these effects. Rats underwent auditory fear conditioning and then received either immediate (30 min) or delayed (24 h) extinction training. We used bilateral intracranial infusions of propranolol into either the infralimbic division of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) or the basolateral amygdala (BLA) to examine the effects of β-adrenoceptor blockade on immediate and delayed extinction learning. Interestingly, intra-BLA, but not intra-mPFC, propranolol rescued the IED; animals receiving intra-BLA propranolol prior to immediate extinction showed less spontaneous recovery of fear during extinction retrieval. Importantly, this was not due to impaired consolidation of the conditioning memory. In contrast, neither intra-BLA nor intra-mPFC propranolol affected delayed extinction learning. Overall, these data contribute to a growing literature suggesting dissociable roles for key nodes in the fear extinction circuit depending on the timing of extinction relative to conditioning. These data also suggest that heightened noradrenergic activity in the BLA underlies stress-induced extinction deficits. Propranolol may be a useful adjunct to behavioral therapeutic interventions in recently traumatized individuals who are at risk for developing trauma-related disorders.

  18. Rates of movement of threatened bird species between IUCN red list categories and toward extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, M de L; Butchart, S H M; Garnett, S T; Crowley, G M; Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Stattersfield, A J

    2008-04-01

    In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988-2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.

  19. Acute inescapable stress alleviates fear extinction recall deficits caused by serotonin transporter abolishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, Pieter; Henckens, Marloes J A G; Lopresto, Dora; Kozicz, Tamas; Homberg, Judith R

    2018-07-02

    Life stress increases risk for developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and more prominently so in short-allele carriers of the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Serotonin transporter knockout (5-HTT -/- ) rats show compromised extinction (recall) of conditioned fear, which might mediate the increased risk for PTSD and reduce the therapeutic efficacy of exposure therapy. Here, we assessed whether acute inescapable stress (IS) differentially affects fear extinction and extinction recall in 5-HTT -/- rats and wildtype controls. Surprisingly, IS experience improved fear extinction recall in 5-HTT -/- rats to the level of wildtype animals, while wildtypes were unaffected by this IS. Thus, whereas 5-HTT -/- rats evidently were more responsive to the stressor, the behavioral consequences presented themselves as adaptive. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Modelling of radiation risk induced by radon and sources of Auger electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boem, R.

    2003-01-01

    This thesis follows the national and worldwide radon research and application Auger radionuclides in nuclear medicine. Results of this thesis can be summarised into several points: (1) For the prediction of cancer risk following the exposure, it is also necessary to consider the mean cycle time of target cells. From our analyses it can be concluded that the mean cycle time of target cells should exceed 100 days. (2) The value of excess relative risk is for smokers ERR/WLM = (2.4-4.1)x10 -3 WLM -1 and that of the nonsmokers ERR/WLM=(4.2-10.7)x10 -3 WLM -1 , considering the underground medium. Excess relative risk for the nonsmokers ERR/(Bq m -3 ) = (1.0-3.5) Bq -1 m 3 and for smokers ERR/(Bq m -3 ) = (0.3-1.2) 10 -3 Bq -1 m 3 is supposed in dwellings. (3) Microdosimetric models are very helpful and suitable for prediction of the radon risk for underground conditions, as well as for indoor radon risk evaluation and they are also able to take into account the influence of the smoking habit. (4) The spatial distribution of energy deposition events and their magnitude is an essential input to evaluate the effects of radiation on biological systems. Therefore, for the calculation of deposited energy from the DNA incorporated Auger emitters, it is necessary at the DNA level to employ the MC calculation. In an effort to save computer time and memory it is possible to use the fitted function for monoenergetic electrons for estimation of at least relative radiotoxicity. The value of energy deposited in a small volume (sphere of diameter 2 nm) can be considered as the first estimation of an Auger emitter's radiotoxicity. (author)

  1. Anatomical physiology of spatial extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciçek, Metehan; Gitelman, Darren; Hurley, Robert S E; Nobre, Anna; Mesulam, Marsel

    2007-12-01

    Neurologically intact volunteers participated in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment that simulated the unilateral (focal) and bilateral (global) stimulations used to elicit extinction in patients with hemispatial neglect. In peristriate areas, attentional modulations were selectively sensitive to contralaterally directed attention. A higher level of mapping was observed in the intraparietal sulcus (IPS), inferior parietal lobule (IPL), and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). In these areas, there was no distinction between contralateral and ipsilateral focal attention, and the need to distribute attention globally led to greater activity than either focal condition. These physiological characteristics were symmetrically distributed in the IPS and IFG, suggesting that the effects of unilateral lesions in these 2 areas can be compensated by the contralateral hemisphere. In the IPL, the greater activation by the bilateral attentional mode was seen only in the right hemisphere. Its contralateral counterpart displayed equivalent activations when attention was distributed to the right, to the left, or bilaterally. Within the context of this experiment, the IPL of the right hemisphere emerged as the one area where unilateral lesions can cause the most uncompensated and selective impairment of global attention (without interfering with unilateral attention to either side), giving rise to the phenomenon of extinction.

  2. Constraints on Enhanced Extinction Resulting from Extinction Treatment in the Presence of an Added Excitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urcelay, Gonzalo P.; Lipatova, Olga; Miller, Ralph R.

    2009-01-01

    Three Pavlovian fear conditioning experiments with rats as subjects explored the effect of extinction in the presence of a concurrent excitor. Our aim was to explore this particular treatment, documented in previous studies to deepen extinction, with novel control groups to shed light on the processes involved in extinction. Relative to subjects…

  3. Timing of extinction relative to acquisition: A parametric analysis of fear extinction in humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norrholm, S.D.; Vervliet, B.; Jovanovic, T.; Boshoven, W.; Myers, K.M.; Davis, M.; Rothbaum, B.O.; Duncan, E.J.

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a reduction in conditioned fear following repeated exposure to the feared cue in the absence of any aversive event. Extinguished fear often reappears after extinction through spontaneous recovery. Animal studies suggest that spontaneous recovery can be abolished if extinction

  4. EVALUATING RISK-PREDICTION MODELS USING DATA FROM ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L E; Shaw, Pamela A; Mathelier, Hansie M; Kimmel, Stephen E; French, Benjamin

    2016-03-01

    The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., "false negatives"). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.

  5. Tempo in electronic gaming machines affects behavior among at-risk gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzoni, Rune A; Laberg, Jon Christian; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Pallesen, Ståle

    2012-09-01

    Background and aims Electronic gaming machines (EGM) may be a particularly addictive form of gambling, and gambling speed is believed to contribute to the addictive potential of such machines. The aim of the current study was to generate more knowledge concerning speed as a structural characteristic in gambling, by comparing the effects of three different bet-to-outcome intervals (BOI) on gamblers bet-sizes, game evaluations and illusion of control during gambling on a computer simulated slot machine. Furthermore, we investigated whether problem gambling moderates effects of BOI on gambling behavior and cognitions. Methods 62 participants played a computerized slot machine with either fast (400 ms), medium (1700 ms) or slow (3000 ms) BOI. SOGS-R was used to measure pre-existing gambling problems. Mean bet size, game evaluations and illusion of control comprised the dependent variables. Results Gambling speed had no overall effect on either mean bet size, game evaluations or illusion of control, but in the 400 ms condition, at-risk gamblers (SOGS-R score > 0) employed higher bet sizes compared to no-risk (SOGS-R score = 0) gamblers. Conclusions The findings corroborate and elaborate on previous studies and indicate that restrictions on gambling speed may serve as a harm reducing effort for at-risk gamblers.

  6. Electronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    International Acer Incorporated, Hsin Chu, Taiwan Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation, Taichung, Taiwan American Institute of Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan...Singapore and Malaysia .5 - 4 - The largest market for semiconductor products is the high technology consumer electronics industry that consumes up...Singapore, and Malaysia . A new semiconductor facility costs around $3 billion to build and takes about two years to become operational

  7. Evaluación del riesgo de extinción de Mammillaria pectinifera, cactácea endémica de la región de Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Assessment of extinction risk of Mammillaria pectinifera, an endemic cactus of the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Luis Valverde

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Mammillaria pectinifera (Cactaceae es una especie endémica de la Región de Tehuacán-Cuicatlán en los estados de Puebla y Oaxaca. Aunque en la Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-059-ECOL-2001 está considerada como amenazada y está incluida en el Apéndice I de la CITES, la información derivada de los escasos estudios ecológicos sobre esta especie revela serios riesgos de extinción de sus poblaciones. En el presente estudio se registra una evaluación del riesgo de extinción de M. pectinifera, para la que se empleó el protocolo del Método de Evaluación del Riesgo de Extinción de las Especies Silvestres en México (MER del Anexo I de la NOM-059-ECOL-2001, el cual se basa en 4 criterios para evaluar cualitativamente el riesgo de extinción de cualquier especie silvestre en el territorio nacional. Dicha evaluación se apoya en datos de campo de 7 poblaciones e información procedente de diversas fuentes. De acuerdo con los 12 puntos obtenidos del MER, se propone que M. pectinifera se considere en la categoría de especie en peligro de extinción (P en la NOM-059-ECOL-2001 y sea incluida de nuevo en la Lista Roja de la UICN. Finalmente se plantea una propuesta para mejorar la valoración del Criterio D del MER.Mammillaria pectinifera (Cactaceae is an endemic species from the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán region at the Mexican States of Puebla and Oaxaca. Although it is considered as a threatened species under Mexican law NOM-059-ECOL-2001, and it is already included in the CITES Appendix I, ecological studies reveal serious vulnerability to extinction of its populations. In this study, we conducted an extinction risk assessment for M. pectinifera based on the protocol of the Method for Evaluation of Risk of Extinction for Mexican Wild Species (MER from Appendix I of NOM-059-ECOL-2001, which is based on a qualitative assessment of 4 criteria for evaluating extinction risk of any wild species in the Mexican territory. The present assessment relies on data

  8. Long-Term Maintenance of Immediate or Delayed Extinction Is Determined by the Extinction-Test Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Justin S.; Escobar, Martha; Kimble, Whitney L.

    2010-01-01

    Short acquisition-extinction intervals (immediate extinction) can lead to either more or less spontaneous recovery than long acquisition-extinction intervals (delayed extinction). Using rat subjects, we observed less spontaneous recovery following immediate than delayed extinction (Experiment 1). However, this was the case only if a relatively…

  9. Can Parallelingualism Save Norwegian from Extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linn, Andrew R.

    2010-01-01

    Language extinction is one of the most pressing issues in linguistics today, and the literature is full of discussion about how to combat it. Statements that Norwegian is amongst the languages that are already extinct are merely examples of a widespread tendency in the literature towards erroneous information about Norwegian. Nonetheless, there is…

  10. Evaluating herbivore extinction probabilities in Addo Elephant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Population extinction evaluations, based on the model developed by Dennis et al. (1991) that did not take density dependence into account and that were based on census data, suggest that many of the herbivore species in Addo Elephant National Park (AENP) are vulnerable to local extinction. As a result of low ...

  11. Extinction-Induced Variability in Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinloch, Jennifer M.; Foster, T. Mary; McEwan, James S. A.

    2009-01-01

    Participants earned points by pressing a computer space bar (Experiment 1) or forming rectangles on the screen with the mouse (Experiment 2) under differential-reinforcement-of-low-rate schedules, followed by extinction. Variability in interresponse time (the contingent dimension) increased during extinction, as for Morgan and Lee (1996);…

  12. Context and Behavioral Processes in Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouton, Mark E.

    2004-01-01

    This article provides a selective review and integration of the behavioral literature on Pavlovian extinction. The first part reviews evidence that extinction does not destroy the original learning, but instead generates new learning that is especially context-dependent. The second part examines insights provided by research on several related…

  13. Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alroy, John

    2015-10-20

    There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed. The method also appears to be insensitive to trends in sampling; therefore, the counts it provides are absolute minimums. Extinctions or severe population crashes have accumulated steadily since the 1970s and 1980s, and at least 3.1% of frog species have already disappeared. Based on these data and this conservative method, the best estimate of the global grand total is roughly 200 extinctions. Consistent with previous results, frog losses are heavy in Latin America, which has been greatly affected by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Extinction rates are now four orders-of-magnitude higher than background, and at least another 6.9% of all frog species may be lost within the next century, even if there is no acceleration in the growth of environmental threats.

  14. Lidar extinction measurement in the mid infrared

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitev, Valentin; Babichenko, S.; Borelli, R.; Fiorani, L.; Grigorov, I.; Nuvoli, M.; Palucci, A.; Pistilli, M.; Puiu, Ad.; Rebane, Ott; Santoro, S.

    2014-11-01

    We present a lidar measurement of atmospheric extinction coefficient. The measurement is performed by inversion of the backscatter lidar signal at wavelengths 3'000nm and 3'500nm. The inversion of the backscatter lidar signal was performed with constant extinction-to-backscatter ration values of 104 and exponential factor 0.1.

  15. Interstellar extinction in the Large Magellanic Cloud

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandy, K.; Morgan, D.H.; Willis, A.J.; Wilson, R.; Gondhalekar, P.M.

    1981-01-01

    A systematic investigation of interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet as a function of position in the Large Magellanic Cloud has been made from an enlarged sample of reddened and comparison stars distributed throughout the cloud. Except for one star SK-69-108, the most reddened star of our sample, the shape of the extinction curves for the LMC stars do not show significant variations. All curves show an increase in extinction towards 2200 A, but some have maxima near 2200 A, some near 1900 A. It has been shown that the feature of the extinction curve near 1900 A is caused by the mismatch of the stellar F III 1920 A feature. The strength of this 1920 A feature as a function of luminosity and spectral type has been determined. The extinction curves have been corrected for the mismatch of the 1920 feature and a single mean extinction curve for the LMC normalized to Asub(V) = 0 and Esub(B-V) = 1 is presented. For the same value of Esub(B-V) the LMC stars show the 2200 A feature weaker by a factor 2 as compared with the galactic stars. Higher extinction shortward of 2000 A in the LMC extinction curves than that in our Galaxy, as reported in earlier papers, is confirmed. (author)

  16. Enhancing Divergent Search through Extinction Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    for the capacity to evolve. This hypothesis is tested through experiments in two evolutionary robotics domains. The results show that combining extinction events with divergent search increases evolvability, while combining them with convergent search offers no similar benefit. The conclusion is that extinction...

  17. Mass extinctions: Ecological selectivity and primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Melissa Clark; Thayer, Charles W.

    1991-09-01

    If mass extinctions were caused by reduced primary productivity, then extinctions should be concentrated among animals with starvation-susceptible feeding modes, active lifestyles, and high-energy budgets. The stratigraphic ranges (by stage) of 424 genera of bivalves and 309 genera of articulate brachiopods suggest that there was an unusual reduction of primary productivity at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary extinction. For bivalves at the K/T, there were (1) selective extinction of suspension feeders and other susceptible trophic categories relative to deposit feeders and other resistant categories, and (2) among suspension feed-ers, selective extinction of bivalves with active locomotion. During the Permian-Triassic (P/Tr) extinction and Jurassic background time, extinction rates among suspension feeders were greater for articulate brachiopods than for bivalves. But during the K/T event, extinction rates of articulates and suspension-feeding bivalves equalized, possibly because the low-energy budgets of articulates gave them an advantage when food was scarce.

  18. Defining the period of moa extinction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, A.

    2000-01-01

    Few aspects of New Zealand's prehistory have engaged scientific and public attention so consistently as two interlinked questions of moa extinction; when did moas become extinct and why? Answers offered over the last 160 years have run the gamut from chronological antiquity by evolutionary senescence, to within the 19th century Maori and European disturbance. (author)

  19. Immediate extinction promotes the return of fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Christian J; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

    2016-05-01

    Accumulating evidence indicates that immediate extinction is less effective than delayed extinction in attenuating the return of fear. This line of fear conditioning research impacts the proposed onset of psychological interventions after threatening situations. In the present study, forty healthy men were investigated in a differential fear conditioning paradigm with fear acquisition in context A, extinction in context B, followed by retrieval testing in both contexts 24h later to test fear renewal. Differently coloured lights served as conditioned stimuli (CS): two CS (CS+) were paired with an electrical stimulation that served as unconditioned stimulus, the third CS was never paired (CS-). Extinction took place immediately after fear acquisition or 24h later. One CS+ was extinguished whereas the second CS+ remained unextinguished to control for different time intervals between fear acquisition and retrieval testing. Immediate extinction led to larger skin conductance responses during fear retrieval to both the extinguished and unextinguished CS relative to the CS-, indicating a stronger return of fear compared to delayed extinction. Taken together, immediate extinction is less potent than delayed extinction and is associated with a stronger renewal effect. Thus, the time-point of psychological interventions relative to the offset of threatening situations needs to be carefully considered to prevent relapses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Out-of-Time Beam Extinction in the MU2E Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prebys, E. J. [Fermilab; Werkema, S. [Fermilab

    2015-06-01

    The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a muon to an electron in the field of an atomic nucleus with unprecedented sensitivity. The experiment requires a beam consisting of proton bunches 250 ns FW long, separated by 1.7 $\\mu$ sec, with no out-of-time protons at the $10^{10}$ fractional level. Satisfying this "extinction" requirement is very challenging. The formation of the bunches is expected to result in an extinction on the order of $10^5$. The remaining extinction will be accomplished by a system of resonant magnets and collimators, configured such that only in-time beam is delivered to the experiment. Our simulations show that the total extinction achievable by the system is on the order of $10^{12}$, with an efficiency for transmitting in-time beam of 99.6%.

  1. Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon A Black

    Full Text Available Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

  2. From lab to clinic: Extinction of cued cravings to reduce overeating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Anita; Schyns, Ghislaine; Bongers, Peggy; van den Akker, Karolien

    2016-08-01

    Food cue reactivity is a strong motivation to eat, even in the absence of hunger. Therefore, food cue reactivity might sabotage healthy eating, induce weight gain and impede weight loss or weight maintenance. Food cue reactivity can be learned via Pavlovian appetitive conditioning: It is easily acquired but the extinction of appetitive responding seems to be more challenging. Several properties of extinction make it fragile: extinction does not erase the original learning and extinction is context-dependent. These properties threaten full extinction and increase the risk of full relapse. Extinction procedures are discussed to reduce or prevent the occurrence of rapid reacquisition, spontaneous recovery, renewal and reinstatement after extinction. A translation to food cue exposure treatment is made and suggestions are provided, such as conducting the exposure in relevant contexts, using occasional reinforcement and targeting expectancy violation instead of habituation. A new hypothesis proposed here is that the adding of inhibition training to strengthen inhibition skills that reduce instrumental responding, might be beneficial to improve food cue exposure effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Simon A; Fellous, Amina; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki; Roberts, David L

    2013-01-01

    Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

  4. Mass extinction in poorly known taxa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Régnier, Claire; Achaz, Guillaume; Lambert, Amaury; Cowie, Robert H; Bouchet, Philippe; Fontaine, Benoît

    2015-06-23

    Since the 1980s, many have suggested we are in the midst of a massive extinction crisis, yet only 799 (0.04%) of the 1.9 million known recent species are recorded as extinct, questioning the reality of the crisis. This low figure is due to the fact that the status of very few invertebrates, which represent the bulk of biodiversity, have been evaluated. Here we show, based on extrapolation from a random sample of land snail species via two independent approaches, that we may already have lost 7% (130,000 extinctions) of the species on Earth. However, this loss is masked by the emphasis on terrestrial vertebrates, the target of most conservation actions. Projections of species extinction rates are controversial because invertebrates are essentially excluded from these scenarios. Invertebrates can and must be assessed if we are to obtain a more realistic picture of the sixth extinction crisis.

  5. Climate predictors of late quaternary extinctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogués-Bravo, David; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Batra, Persaram

    2010-01-01

    Between 50,000 and 3,000 years before present (BP) 65% of mammal genera weighing over 44 kg went extinct, together with a lower proportion of small mammals. Why species went extinct in such large numbers is hotly debated. One of the arguments proposes that climate changes underlie Late Quaternary...... extinctions, but global quantitative evidence for this hypothesis is still lacking. We test the potential role of global climate change on the extinction of mammals during the Late Quaternary. Our results suggest that continents with the highest climate footprint values, in other words, with climate changes...... of greater magnitudes during the Late Quaternary, witnessed more extinctions than continents with lower climate footprint values, with the exception of South America. Our results are consistent across species with different body masses, reinforcing the view that past climate changes contributed to global...

  6. A phantom extinction? New insights into extinction dynamics of the Don-hare Lepus tanaiticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prost, S; Knapp, M; Flemmig, J; Hufthammer, A K; Kosintsev, P; Stiller, M; Hofreiter, M

    2010-09-01

    The Pleistocene to Holocene transition was accompanied by a worldwide extinction event affecting numerous mammalian species. Several species such as the woolly mammoth and the giant deer survived this extinction wave, only to go extinct a few thousand years later during the Holocene. Another example for such a Holocene extinction is the Don-hare, Lepus tanaiticus, which inhabited the Russian plains during the late glacial. After being slowly replaced by the extant mountain hare (Lepus timidus), it eventually went extinct during the middle Holocene. Here, we report the phylogenetic relationship of L. tanaiticus and L. timidus based on a 339-basepair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial D-loop. Phylogenetic tree- and network reconstructions do not support L. tanaiticus and L. timidus being different species. Rather, we suggest that the two taxa represent different morphotypes of a single species and the extinction of 'L. tanaiticus' represents the disappearance of a local morphotype rather than the extinction of a species.

  7. Trophic redundancy reduces vulnerability to extinction cascades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Dirk; Thébault, Elisa; Kehoe, Rachel; Frank van Veen, F J

    2018-03-06

    Current species extinction rates are at unprecedentedly high levels. While human activities can be the direct cause of some extinctions, it is becoming increasingly clear that species extinctions themselves can be the cause of further extinctions, since species affect each other through the network of ecological interactions among them. There is concern that the simplification of ecosystems, due to the loss of species and ecological interactions, increases their vulnerability to such secondary extinctions. It is predicted that more complex food webs will be less vulnerable to secondary extinctions due to greater trophic redundancy that can buffer against the effects of species loss. Here, we demonstrate in a field experiment with replicated plant-insect communities, that the probability of secondary extinctions is indeed smaller in food webs that include trophic redundancy. Harvesting one species of parasitoid wasp led to secondary extinctions of other, indirectly linked, species at the same trophic level. This effect was markedly stronger in simple communities than for the same species within a more complex food web. We show that this is due to functional redundancy in the more complex food webs and confirm this mechanism with a food web simulation model by highlighting the importance of the presence and strength of trophic links providing redundancy to those links that were lost. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity loss, leading to a reduction in redundant interactions, can increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to secondary extinctions, which, when they occur, can then lead to further simplification and run-away extinction cascades. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  8. Rarity, species richness, and the threat of extinction--are plants the same as animals?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Knapp

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of conservation status is done both for areas or habitats and for species (or taxa. IUCN Red List categories have been the principal method of categorising species in terms of extinction risk, and have been shown to be robust and helpful in the groups for which they have been developed. A recent study highlights properties associated with extinction risk in flowering plants, focusing on the species-rich hot spot of the Cape region of South Africa, and concludes that merely following methods derived from studies of vertebrates may not provide the best estimates of extinction risk for plants. Biology, geography, and history all are important factors in risk, and the study poses many questions about how we categorise and assess species for conservation priorities.

  9. Immediate extinction causes a less durable loss of performance than delayed extinction following either fear or appetitive conditioning

    OpenAIRE

    Woods, Amanda M.; Bouton, Mark E.

    2008-01-01

    Five experiments with rat subjects compared the effects of immediate and delayed extinction on the durability of extinction learning. Three experiments examined extinction of fear conditioning (using the conditioned emotional response method), and two experiments examined extinction of appetitive conditioning (using the food-cup entry method). In all experiments, conditioning and extinction were accomplished in single sessions, and retention testing took place 24 h after extinction. In both f...

  10. High male sexual investment as a driver of extinction in fossil ostracods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Maria João Fernandes; Puckett, T Markham; Lockwood, Rowan; Swaddle, John P; Hunt, Gene

    2018-04-01

    Sexual selection favours traits that confer advantages in the competition for mates. In many cases, such traits are costly to produce and maintain, because the costs help to enforce the honesty of these signals and cues 1 . Some evolutionary models predict that sexual selection also produces costs at the population level, which could limit the ability of populations to adapt to changing conditions and thus increase the risk of extinction 2-4 . Other models, however, suggest that sexual selection should increase rates of adaptation and enhance the removal of deleterious mutations, thus protecting populations against extinction 3, 5, 6 . Resolving the conflict between these models is not only important for explaining the history of biodiversity, but also relevant to understanding the mechanisms of the current biodiversity crisis. Previous attempts to test the conflicting predictions produced by these models have been limited to extant species and have thus relied on indirect proxies for species extinction. Here we use the informative fossil record of cytheroid ostracods-small, bivalved crustaceans with sexually dimorphic carapaces-to test how sexual selection relates to actual species extinction. We show that species with more pronounced sexual dimorphism, indicating the highest levels of male investment in reproduction, had estimated extinction rates that were ten times higher than those of the species with the lowest investment. These results indicate that sexual selection can be a substantial risk factor for extinction.

  11. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) risk assessment at core assembly production of electronic components manufacturing company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, N. M.; Zahid, M. N. O.

    2018-03-01

    This study conducted to assess the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) among the workers at core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company located in Pekan, Pahang, Malaysia. The study is to identify the WMDs risk factor and risk level. A set of questionnaires survey based on modified Nordic Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaires have been distributed to respective workers to acquire the WMDs risk factor identification. Then, postural analysis was conducted in order to measure the respective WMDs risk level. The analysis were based on two ergonomics assessment tools; Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). The study found that 30 respondents out of 36 respondents suffered from WMDs especially at shoulder, wrists and lower back. The WMDs risk have been identified from unloading process, pressing process and winding process. In term of the WMDs risk level, REBA and RULA assessment tools have indicated high risk level to unloading and pressing process. Thus, this study had established the WMDs risk factor and risk level of core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company at Malaysia environment.

  12. Extinction produces context inhibition and multiple-context extinction reduces response recovery in human predictive learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glautier, Steven; Elgueta, Tito; Nelson, James Byron

    2013-12-01

    Two experiments with human participants were used to investigate recovery of an extinguished learned response after a context change using ABC designs. In an ABC design, the context changes over the three successive stages of acquisition (context A), extinction (context B), and test (context C). In both experiments, we found reduced recovery in groups that had extinction in multiple contexts, and that the extinction contexts acquired inhibitory strength. These results confirm those of previous investigations, that multiple-context extinction can produce less response recovery than single-context extinction, and they also provide new evidence for the involvement of contextual inhibitory processes in extinction in humans. The foregoing results are broadly in line with a protection-from-extinction account of response recovery. Yet, despite the fact that we detected contextual inhibition, predictions based on protection-from-extinction were not fully reliable for the single- and multiple-context group differences that we observed in (1) rates of extinction and (2) the strength of context inhibition. Thus, although evidence was obtained for a protection-from-extinction account of response recovery, this account can not explain all of the data.

  13. Estimating extinction using unsupervised machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meingast, Stefan; Lombardi, Marco; Alves, João

    2017-05-01

    Dust extinction is the most robust tracer of the gas distribution in the interstellar medium, but measuring extinction is limited by the systematic uncertainties involved in estimating the intrinsic colors to background stars. In this paper we present a new technique, Pnicer, that estimates intrinsic colors and extinction for individual stars using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. This new method aims to be free from any priors with respect to the column density and intrinsic color distribution. It is applicable to any combination of parameters and works in arbitrary numbers of dimensions. Furthermore, it is not restricted to color space. Extinction toward single sources is determined by fitting Gaussian mixture models along the extinction vector to (extinction-free) control field observations. In this way it becomes possible to describe the extinction for observed sources with probability densities, rather than a single value. Pnicer effectively eliminates known biases found in similar methods and outperforms them in cases of deep observational data where the number of background galaxies is significant, or when a large number of parameters is used to break degeneracies in the intrinsic color distributions. This new method remains computationally competitive, making it possible to correctly de-redden millions of sources within a matter of seconds. With the ever-increasing number of large-scale high-sensitivity imaging surveys, Pnicer offers a fast and reliable way to efficiently calculate extinction for arbitrary parameter combinations without prior information on source characteristics. The Pnicer software package also offers access to the well-established Nicer technique in a simple unified interface and is capable of building extinction maps including the Nicest correction for cloud substructure. Pnicer is offered to the community as an open-source software solution and is entirely written in Python.

  14. Amount of fear extinction changes its underlying mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Bobae; Kim, Jihye; Park, Kyungjoon; Lee, Sukwon; Song, Sukwoon; Choi, Sukwoo

    2017-07-03

    There has been a longstanding debate on whether original fear memory is inhibited or erased after extinction. One possibility that reconciles this uncertainty is that the inhibition and erasure mechanisms are engaged in different phases (early or late) of extinction. In this study, using single-session extinction training and its repetition (multiple-session extinction training), we investigated the inhibition and erasure mechanisms in the prefrontal cortex and amygdala of rats, where neural circuits underlying extinction reside. The inhibition mechanism was prevalent with single-session extinction training but faded when single-session extinction training was repeated. In contrast, the erasure mechanism became prevalent when single-session extinction training was repeated. Moreover, ablating the intercalated neurons of amygdala, which are responsible for maintaining extinction-induced inhibition, was no longer effective in multiple-session extinction training. We propose that the inhibition mechanism operates primarily in the early phase of extinction training, and the erasure mechanism takes over after that.

  15. Optical extinction spectroscopy used to characterize metallic nanowires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scaffardi, L B; Lester, M; Skigin, D; Tocho, J O

    2007-01-01

    We present a method for sizing metallic nanowires through the analysis of the extinction spectra of the scattered light when the wires are illuminated alternatively with p- and s-polarization waves. The method is applied to isolated silver nanowires in air or immersed in index matching oil. The dielectric function of silver is affected by the size of the cylinders, and its influence on the extinction spectra near the plasmon resonance or near the dip position is considered. Due to the size of the nanocylinders, it is necessary to include two different permittivities in the electromagnetic model to analyse the behaviour of the material under different polarization incidences. This introduces anisotropy in the system, which comprises isotropic cylinders. The behaviour of the extinction spectra for p-waves allows us to determine the wire radii, taking into account the plasmon peak position for radii larger than 7 nm, or alternatively, by using the contrast between maximum and minimum intensity near the plasmon frequency, for radii lower than 5 nm. For s-waves, although no plasmon peak appears, we can determine the radii by analysing the contrast between the ridge of the spectra near 260-275 nm and the minimum near 320-330 nm for radii larger than 10 nm, or analysing the slope in the spectra over 350 nm, for radii below 10 nm. The present study shows that spectral extinction is a very simple and inexpensive technique that can be useful for characterizing the radius of nanocylinders when electron microscopy (TEM or SEM) is not available

  16. Mass-gathering Medicine: Risks and Patient Presentations at a 2-Day Electronic Dance Music Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Adam; Turris, Sheila A

    2015-06-01

    Music festivals, including electronic dance music events (EDMEs), increasingly are common in Canada and internationally. Part of a US $4.5 billion industry annually, the target audience is youth and young adults aged 15-25 years. Little is known about the impact of these events on local emergency departments (EDs). Drawing on prospective data over a 2-day EDME, the authors of this study employed mixed methods to describe the case mix and prospectively compared patient presentation rate (PPR) and ambulance transfer rate (ATR) between a first aid (FA) only and a higher level of care (HLC) model. There were 20,301 ticketed attendees. Seventy patient encounters were recorded over two days. The average age was 19.1 years. Roughly 69% were female (n=48/70). Forty-six percent of those seen in the main medical area were under the age of 19 years (n=32/70). The average length of stay in the main medical area was 70.8 minutes. The overall PPR was 4.09 per 1,000 attendees. The ATR with FA only would have been 1.98; ATR with HLC model was 0.52. The presence of an on-site HLC team had a significant positive effect on avoiding ambulance transfers. Twenty-nine ambulance transfers and ED visits were avoided by the presence of an on-site HLC medical team. Reduction of impact to the public health care system was substantial. Electronic dance music events have predictable risks and patient presentations, and appropriate on-site health care resources may reduce significantly the impact on the prehospital and emergency health resources in the host community.

  17. An electronic screen for triaging adolescent substance use by risk levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Sharon; Weiss, Roger; Sherritt, Lon; Ziemnik, Rosemary; Spalding, Allegra; Van Hook, Shari; Shrier, Lydia A

    2014-09-01

    Screening adolescents for substance use and intervening immediately can reduce the burden of addiction and substance-related morbidity. Several screening tools have been developed to identify problem substance use for adolescents, but none have been calibrated to triage adolescents into clinically relevant risk categories to guide interventions. To describe the psychometric properties of an electronic screen and brief assessment tool that triages adolescents into 4 actionable categories regarding their experience with nontobacco substance use. Adolescent patients (age range, 12-17 years) arriving for routine medical care at 2 outpatient primary care centers and 1 outpatient center for substance use treatment at a pediatric hospital completed an electronic screening tool from June 1, 2012, through March 31, 2013, that consisted of a question on the frequency of using 8 types of drugs in the past year (Screening to Brief Intervention). Additional questions assessed severity of any past-year substance use. Patients completed a structured diagnostic interview (Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Substance Abuse Module), yielding Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fifth Edition) substance use diagnoses. For the entire screen and the Screening to Brief Intervention, sensitivity and specificity for identifying nontobacco substance use, substance use disorders, severe substance use disorders, and tobacco dependence were calculated using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Substance Abuse Module as the criterion standard. Of 340 patients invited to participate, 216 (63.5%) enrolled in the study. Sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 84% (95% CI, 76%-89%) for identifying nontobacco substance use, 90% (95% CI, 77%-96%) and 94% (95% CI, 89%-96%) for substance use disorders, 100% and 94% (95% CI, 90%-96%) for severe substance use disorders, and 75% (95% CI, 52%-89%) and 98% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for nicotine dependence. No significant

  18. Hospital autopsy: Endangered or extinct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Angus; Osborn, Michael; Nicholas, Nick

    2015-08-01

    To determine the hospital autopsy rate for the UK in 2013. A study of data from a 'Freedom of Information' request to all (n=186) acute NHS Trusts within England (n=160), NHS Boards in Scotland (n=14) and Wales (n=7) and Social Care Trusts in Northern Ireland (n=5). Hospital autopsy rates were calculated from the number of hospital autopsies performed in 2013 as a percentage of total inpatient deaths in the Trust that year. The UK response rate was 99% (n=184), yielding a mean autopsy rate of 0.69%. The mean rates were 0.51% (England), 2.13% (Scotland), 0.65% (Wales) and 0.46% (Northern Ireland). 23% (n=38) of all included respondents had a rate of 0% and 86% (n=143) a rate less than 1%. The decline in hospital autopsy has continued relentlessly and, for better or for worse, the practice is on the verge of extinction in the UK. The study highlights to health professionals and policy makers the magnitude of this decline. Further research should investigate the impact of this on patient safety, clinical audit, public health and medical education. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  19. Extinction from a rationalist perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R

    2012-05-01

    The merging of the computational theory of mind and evolutionary thinking leads to a kind of rationalism, in which enduring truths about the world have become implicit in the computations that enable the brain to cope with the experienced world. The dead reckoning computation, for example, is implemented within the brains of animals as one of the mechanisms that enables them to learn where they are (Gallistel, 1990, 1995). It integrates a velocity signal with respect to a time signal. Thus, the manner in which position and velocity relate to one another in the world is reflected in the manner in which signals representing those variables are processed in the brain. I use principles of information theory and Bayesian inference to derive from other simple principles explanations for: (1) the failure of partial reinforcement to increase reinforcements to acquisition; (2) the partial reinforcement extinction effect; (3) spontaneous recovery; (4) renewal; (5) reinstatement; (6) resurgence (aka facilitated reacquisition). Like the principle underlying dead-reckoning, these principles are grounded in analytic considerations. They are the kind of enduring truths about the world that are likely to have shaped the brain's computations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Hormonal contraception among electronic cigarette users and cardiovascular risk: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Halley E M; Berry-Bibee, Erin; England, Lucinda J; Jamieson, Denise J; Marchbanks, Polly A; Curtis, Kathryn M

    2016-03-01

    Women who use combined hormonal contraceptives and cigarettes have an increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. We reviewed the literature to determine whether women who use hormonal contraceptives (HC) and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) also have an increased risk. Systematic review. We searched for articles reporting myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, venous thromboembolism, peripheral arterial disease or changes to CV markers in women using e-cigarettes and HC. We also searched for indirect evidence, such as CV outcomes among e-cigarette users in the general population and among HC users exposed to nicotine, propylene glycol or glycerol. No articles reported on outcomes among e-cigarette users using HC. Among the general population, 13 articles reported on heart rate or blood pressure after e-cigarette use. These markers generally remained normal, even when significant changes were observed. In three studies, changes were less pronounced after e-cigarette use than cigarette use. One MI was reported among 1012 people exposed to e-cigarettes in these studies. One article on nicotine and HC exposure found both exposures to be significantly associated with acute changes to heart rate, though mean heart rate remained normal. No articles on propylene glycol or glycerol and HC exposure were identified. We identified no evidence on CV outcomes among e-cigarette users using HC. Limited data reporting mostly acute outcomes suggested that CV events are rare among e-cigarette users in the general population and that e-cigarettes may affect heart rate and blood pressure less than conventional cigarettes. There is a need for research assessing joint HC and e-cigarette exposure on clinical CV outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Electronic Health Record Tools to Care for At-Risk Older Drivers: A Quality Improvement Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Colleen M; Salinas, Katherine; Eckstrom, Elizabeth

    2015-06-01

    Evaluating driving safety of older adults is an important health topic, but primary care providers (PCP) face multiple barriers in addressing this issue. The study's objectives were to develop an electronic health record (EHR)-based Driving Clinical Support Tool, train PCPs to perform driving assessments utilizing the tool, and systematize documentation of assessment and management of driving safety issues via the tool. The intervention included development of an evidence-based Driving Clinical Support Tool within the EHR, followed by training of internal medicine providers in the tool's content and use. Pre- and postintervention provider surveys and chart review of driving-related patient visits were conducted. Surveys included self-report of preparedness and knowledge to evaluate at-risk older drivers and were analyzed using paired t-test. A chart review of driving-related office visits compared documentation pre- and postintervention including: completeness of appropriate focused history and exam, identification of deficits, patient education, and reporting to appropriate authorities when indicated. Data from 86 providers were analyzed. Pre- and postintervention surveys showed significantly increased self-assessed preparedness (p < .001) and increased driving-related knowledge (p < .001). Postintervention charts showed improved documentation of correct cognitive testing, more referrals/consults, increased patient education about community resources, and appropriate regulatory reporting when deficits were identified. Focused training and an EHR-based clinical support tool improved provider self-reported preparedness and knowledge of how to evaluate at-risk older drivers. The tool improved documentation of driving-related issues and led to improved access to interdisciplinary care coordination. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2015.

  2. Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringma, Jeremy L; Wintle, Brendan; Fuller, Richard A; Fisher, Diana; Bode, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Stress before extinction learning enhances and generalizes extinction memory in a predictive learning task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meir Drexler, Shira; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

    2017-05-01

    In extinction learning, the individual learns that a previously acquired association (e.g. between a threat and its predictor) is no longer valid. This learning is the principle underlying many cognitive-behavioral psychotherapeutic treatments, e.g. 'exposure therapy'. However, extinction is often highly-context dependent, leading to renewal (relapse of extinguished conditioned response following context change). We have previously shown that post-extinction stress leads to a more context-dependent extinction memory in a predictive learning task. Yet as stress prior to learning can impair the integration of contextual cues, here we aim to create a more generalized extinction memory by inducing stress prior to extinction. Forty-nine men and women learned the associations between stimuli and outcomes in a predictive learning task (day 1), extinguished them shortly after an exposure to a stress/control condition (day 2), and were tested for renewal (day 3). No group differences were seen in acquisition and extinction learning, and a renewal effect was present in both groups. However, the groups differed in the strength and context-dependency of the extinction memory. Compared to the control group, the stress group showed an overall reduced recovery of responding to the extinguished stimuli, in particular in the acquisition context. These results, together with our previous findings, demonstrate that the effects of stress exposure on extinction memory depend on its timing. While post-extinction stress makes the memory more context-bound, pre-extinction stress strengthens its consolidation for the acquisition context as well, making it potentially more resistant to relapse. These results have implications for the use of glucocorticoids as extinction-enhancers in exposure therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Interstellar extinction in the Small Magellanic Cloud

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandy, K.; McLachlan, A.; Thompson, G.I.; Morgan, D.H.; Willis, A.J.; Wilson, R.; Gondhalekar, P.M.; Houziaux, L.

    1982-01-01

    IUE observations of three considerably reddened stars located near the core of the Small Magellanic Cloud and of two comparison stars which are also SMC members are presented. This region contains a considerable amount of dust. The UV spectrum of one of the reddened stars (BBB 338) shows the lambda 2200 feature characteristic of the Galactic extinction curve. This absorption feature is not obvious in the UV spectra of the other two reddened stars. Due to lack of a suitable comparison star it has not been possible to measure the UV extinction of BBB 338. The extinction curves derived for the other two reddened SMC members differ from the mean Galactic law in that they exhibit very weak or absent lambda 2200 and much higher values of far-UV extinction. These differences are greater than have been found for stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud, confirming earlier observations by others. (author)

  5. Anthropogenic stressors and riverine fish extinctions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias, M.S.; Tedesco, P.A.; Hugueny, B.; Jézéquel, C.; Beauchard, O.; Brosse, S.; Oberdorff, T.

    2017-01-01

    Human activities are often implicated in the contemporary extinction of contemporary species. Concerningriverine fishes, the major biotic and abiotic threats widely cited include introduction of non-nativespecies, habitat fragmentation and homogenization in stream flow dynamics due to the damming

  6. Are marine and nonmarine extinctions correlated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    Recent papers in Eos have debated the possible relationships between marine mass extinctions, comet showers, and volcanism [Alvarez, 1986; Officer and Grieve, 1986], and ail three might be linked [Rampino, 1987]. Moreover, as Officer and Grieve [ 1986] point out, various other causes have been suggested for given extinction events, including changes in climate, ocean circulation, and sea level fluctuations, possibly related to plate tectonics and continental positions. Also under debate is the issue of whether mass extinctions were gradual, stepped, or geologically sudden events (see, for example, Hut et al. [1987]). A missing ingredient thus far in these debates has been the record of faunal diversity of nonmarine animals. Does this show any agreement with the marine extinction record?

  7. Fear acquisition and extinction in offspring of mothers with anxiety and depressive disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Allison M; Peters, Rosie-Mae; Forrest, Kylee E; Zimmer-Gembeck, Melanie

    2014-01-01

    Maternal anxiety and depression are significant risk factors for the development of these disorders in offspring. The pathways through which risk is conferred remain unclear. This study examined fear acquisition and extinction in 26 children at high risk for emotional disorders by virtue of maternal psychopathology (n=14 with a mother with a principal anxiety disorder and n=12 with a mother with a principal unipolar depressive disorder) and 31 low risk controls using a discriminative Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Participants, aged between 7 and 14 years, completed 16 trials of discriminative conditioning of two geometric figures, with (CS+) and without (CS-) an aversive tone (US), followed by 8 extinction trials (4×CS+, 4×CS-). In the context of comparable discriminative conditioning, children of anxious mothers showed larger skin conductance responses during extinction to the CS+ compared to the CS-, and to both CSs from the first to the second block of extinction trials, in comparison with low risk controls. Compared to low risk controls, children of depressed mothers showed smaller skin conductance responses to the CS+ than the CS- during acquisition. These findings suggest distinct psychophysiological premorbid risk markers in offspring of anxious and depressed mothers. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Population prevalence and control of cardiovascular risk factors: what electronic medical records tell us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalán-Ramos, Arantxa; Verdú, Jose M; Grau, María; Iglesias-Rodal, Manuel; del Val García, José L; Consola, Alicia; Comin, Eva

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the prevalence, control, and management of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Cross-sectional analysis of all individuals attended in the Catalan primary care centers between 2006 and 2009. History of cardiovascular diseases, diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, DM2, lipid profile, glycemia and blood pressure data were extracted from electronic medical records. Age-standardized prevalence and levels of management and control were estimated. Individuals aged 35-74 years using primary care databases. A total of 2,174,515 individuals were included (mean age 52 years [SD 11], 47% men). Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor (39% in women, 41% in men) followed by hypercholesterolemia (38% and 40%) and DM2 (12% and 16%), respectively. Diuretics and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were most often prescribed for hypertension control (women treated). Hypercholesterolemia was controlled (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol women with no history of cardiovascular disease, despite lipid-lowering treatment, primarily (90%) with statins. The percentage of women and men with DM2 and with glycated hemoglobin DM2 were adequately controlled; hypercholesterolemia control was particularly low. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk factors for medication errors in the electronic and manual prescription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Cris Renata Grou; Melo, Eveline Maria Magalhães de; Aguiar, Lucas Barbosa de; Pinho, Diana Lúcia Moura; Stival, Marina Morato

    2016-08-08

    to compare electronic and manual prescriptions of a public hospital of Brasilia, identifying risk factors for the occurrence of medication errors. descriptive-exploratory, comparative and retrospective study. Data collection occurred from July 2012 to January 2013, using an instrument for the review of the information contained in medical records related to the medication process. A total of 190 manual and 199 electronic records composed the sample, with 2027 prescriptions each. compared to the manual prescription, a significant reduction was observed in the risk factors after implantation of the electronic prescription, in items such as "lack of the form of dilution" (71.1% to 22.3%) and "prescription with brand name" (99.5% to 31.5%). Conversely, the risk factors "no check" and "lack of CRM of the prescriber" increased. The lack of the allergy registration and the occurrences related to medication were the same for both groups. generally, the use of the electronic prescription system was associated with a significant reduction in risk factors for medication errors, concerning the following aspects: illegibility, prescription with brand name and presence of essential items that provide a safe and effective prescription. comparar as prescrições eletrônicas e manuais de um hospital público do Distrito Federal, identificando os fatores de risco para ocorrência de erros de medicação. Estudo descritivo-exploratório, comparativo e retrospectivo. A coleta de dados ocorreu no período de julho de 2012 a janeiro de 2013, através de instrumento para revisão das informações referentes ao processo de medicação contidas em prontuários. Integraram a amostra 190 prontuários manuais e 199 eletrônicos, com 2027 prescrições cada. na comparação com a prescrição manual, observou-se redução significativa dos fatores de risco após implantação da eletrônica, em itens como "falta da forma de diluição" (71,1% e 22,3%) e "prescrição com nome comercial" (99

  10. Interstellar Silicon Depletion and the Ultraviolet Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Ajay; Li, Aigen

    2018-01-01

    Spinning small silicate grains were recently invoked to account for the Galactic foreground anomalous microwave emission. These grains, if present, will absorb starlight in the far ultraviolet (UV). There is also renewed interest in attributing the enigmatic 2175 Å interstellar extinction bump to small silicates. To probe the role of silicon in the UV extinction, we explore the relations between the amount of silicon required to be locked up in silicates [Si/H]dust and the 2175 Å bump or the far-UV extinction rise, based on an analysis of the extinction curves along 46 Galactic sightlines for which the gas-phase silicon abundance [Si/H]gas is known. We derive [Si/H]dust either from [Si/H]ISM - [Si/H]gas or from the Kramers- Kronig relation which relates the wavelength-integrated extinction to the total dust volume, where [Si/H]ISM is the interstellar silicon reference abundance and taken to be that of proto-Sun or B stars. We also derive [Si/H]dust from fi�tting the observed extinction curves with a mixture of amorphous silicates and graphitic grains. We fi�nd that in all three cases [Si/H]dust shows no correlation with the 2175 Å bump, while the carbon depletion [C/H]dust tends to correlate with the 2175 Å bump. This supports carbon grains instead of silicates as the possible carrier of the 2175 Å bump. We also �find that neither [Si/H]dust nor [C/H]dust alone correlates with the far-UV extinction, suggesting that the far-UV extinction is a combined effect of small carbon grains and silicates.

  11. Post-Retrieval Extinction Attenuates Cocaine Memories

    OpenAIRE

    Sartor, Gregory C; Aston-Jones, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that post-retrieval extinction training attenuates fear and reward-related memories in both humans and rodents. This noninvasive, behavioral approach has the potential to be used in clinical settings to treat maladaptive memories that underlie several psychiatric disorders, including drug addiction. However, few studies to date have used a post-retrieval extinction approach to attenuate addiction-related memories. In the current study, we attempted to disrupt cocaine...

  12. Modelling the extinction of Steller's sea cow

    OpenAIRE

    Turvey, S.T; Risley, C.L

    2005-01-01

    Steller's sea cow, a giant sirenian discovered in 1741 and extinct by 1768, is one of the few megafaunal mammal species to have died out during the historical period. The species is traditionally considered to have been exterminated by ‘blitzkrieg’-style direct overharvesting for food, but it has also been proposed that its extinction resulted from a sea urchin population explosion triggered by extirpation of local sea otter populations that eliminated the shallow-water kelps on which sea cow...

  13. A model for evolution and extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, Bruce W.; Newman, M. E. J.

    1995-01-01

    We present a model for evolution and extinction in large ecosystems. The model incorporates the effects of interactions between species and the influences of abiotic environmental factors. We study the properties of the model by approximate analytic solution and also by numerical simulation, and use it to make predictions about the distribution of extinctions and species lifetimes that we would expect to see in real ecosystems. It should be possible to test these predictions against the fossi...

  14. Extinction of laminar partially premixed flames

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aggarwal, Suresh K. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 W. Taylor Street, Room 2039, MC-251, Chicago, IL 60607-7022 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Flame extinction represents one of the classical phenomena in combustion science. It is important to a variety of combustion systems in transportation and power generation applications. Flame extinguishment studies are also motivated from the consideration of fire safety and suppression. Such studies have generally considered non-premixed and premixed flames, although fires can often originate in a partially premixed mode, i.e., fuel and oxidizer are partially premixed as they are transported to the reaction zone. Several recent investigations have considered this scenario and focused on the extinction of partially premixed flames (PPFs). Such flames have been described as hybrid flames possessing characteristics of both premixed and non-premixed flames. This paper provides a review of studies dealing with the extinction of PPFs, which represent a broad family of flames, including double, triple (tribrachial), and edge flames. Theoretical, numerical and experimental studies dealing with the extinction of such flames in coflow and counterflow configurations are discussed. Since these flames contain both premixed and non-premixed burning zones, a brief review of the dilution-induced extinction of premixed and non-premixed flames is also provided. For the coflow configuration, processes associated with flame liftoff and blowout are described. Since lifted non-premixed jet flames often contain a partially premixed or an edge-flame structure prior to blowout, the review also considers such flames. While the perspective of this review is broad focusing on the fundamental aspects of flame extinction and blowout, results mostly consider flame extinction caused by the addition of a flame suppressant, with relevance to fire suppression on earth and in space environment. With respect to the latter, the effect of gravity on the extinction of PPFs is discussed. Future research needs are identified. (author)

  15. Cardiac implantable electronic device hematomas: Risk factors and effect of prophylactic pressure bandaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, Youlin; Bingham, Nicholas E; Law, Natalie; Le, Dustin; Mariani, Justin A

    2017-07-01

    Cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) hematomas are associated with many adverse outcomes. We examined the incidence and risk factors associated with hematoma formation post-CIED implantation, and explored the preventative effect of prophylactic pressure bandaging (PPB) in a large tertiary center. 1,091 devices were implanted during October 2011-December 2014. Clinically significant hematomas (CSH) were those that necessitated prolonged admission, including those due to reoperation, and clinically suspicious hematomas were swellings noted by medical/nursing staff. We screened for variables affecting hematoma incidence prior to conducting multivariate logistic regression analyses, one for all hematomas and one for CSH. 61 hematomas were identified (5.6% of patients), with 12 of those clinically significant (1.1% of patients). Factors significantly increasing the odds of developing any hematoma were stage 2 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.08-7.94], P = 0.034) and 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 3.39 [1.20-9.56], P = 0.021), unfractionated heparin/therapeutic enoxaparin (OR = 3.15 [1.22-8.14], P = 0.018), and dual antiplatelets-aspirin + clopidogrel (OR = 2.95 [1.14-7.65], P = 0.026) + other combinations. Body Mass index (BMI) 25.0-29.9 (OR 0.52 [0.28-0.98], P = 0.044) and >30 were associated with decreased hematoma risk (OR 0.43 [0.20-0.91], P = 0.028). Factors significant for CSH formation were unfractionated heparin/therapeutic enoxaparin (OR = 9.55 [1.83-49.84], P = 0.007) and aspirin + clopidogrel (OR = 7.19 [1.01-50.91], P = 0.048). PPB nonsignificantly increased the odds of total hematoma development (OR = 1.53 [0.87-2.69], P = 0.135), and reduced CSH (OR = 0.67 [0.18-2.47], P = 0.547). Heparin and dual antiplatelet use remain strong predictors of overall hematoma formation. CKD is a comparatively moderate predictor. BMI > 25 may decrease the risk of hematoma formation. PPB had nonsignificant effects on hematoma development

  16. Compound Stimulus Extinction Reduces Spontaneous Recovery in Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Cesar A. O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design ("deepened extinction") shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately…

  17. AESoP: Astronomical Extinction Spectrophotometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linford, Justin; McGraw, J.; Zimmer, P.; Ackermann, M.; Fitch, J.

    2009-01-01

    The Earth's atmosphere is a major obstruction to the precision and accuracy of ground-based photometry. The atmosphere removes light from astronomical objects both by absorption and scattering by constituent molecules, aerosols and clouds. These effects can change significantly over short time periods and over modest angles on the sky. To further understand these effects, the UNM Measurement Astrophysics Group has designed, built and recently deployed the Astronomical Extinction Spectrophotometer (AESoP), a 100mm objective grating spectrometer. By monitoring bright stars in sensibly the same direction as a larger photometric telescope is observing, AESoP will measure the wavelength-dependent extinction due to the Earth's atmosphere from 450nm to 900nm on time scales of approximately one minute. The collocated Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction (ALE) provides a high-precision monochromatic extinction measurement at 527nm. Knowing the extinction at a single wavelength allows us to pin the relative spectra generated by AESoP. These extinction spectra can then be integrated over the bandpass of the photometric telescope system to create real time corrections of observations. We present the design and construction of AESoP along with the preliminary results of our first combined observing campaign. This effort is our first step toward breaking the 1% photometry barrier. This project is funded by AFRL Grant FA9451-04-2-0355

  18. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  19. Ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Matt

    2009-03-31

    Despite the attention focused on mass extinction events in the fossil record, patterns of extinction in the dominant group of marine vertebrates-fishes-remain largely unexplored. Here, I demonstrate ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction, based on a genus-level dataset that accounts for lineages predicted on the basis of phylogeny but not yet sampled in the fossil record. Two ecologically relevant anatomical features are considered: body size and jaw-closing lever ratio. Extinction intensity is higher for taxa with large body sizes and jaws consistent with speed (rather than force) transmission; resampling tests indicate that victims represent a nonrandom subset of taxa present in the final stage of the Cretaceous. Logistic regressions of the raw data reveal that this nonrandom distribution stems primarily from the larger body sizes of victims relative to survivors. Jaw mechanics are also a significant factor for most dataset partitions but are always less important than body size. When data are corrected for phylogenetic nonindependence, jaw mechanics show a significant correlation with extinction risk, but body size does not. Many modern large-bodied, predatory taxa currently suffering from overexploitation, such billfishes and tunas, first occur in the Paleocene, when they appear to have filled the functional space vacated by some extinction victims.

  20. High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2017-09-21

    Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Evidence and mapping of extinction debts for global forest-dwelling reptiles, amphibians and mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Youhua; Peng, Shushi

    2017-03-01

    Evidence of extinction debts for the global distributions of forest-dwelling reptiles, mammals and amphibians was tested and the debt magnitude was estimated and mapped. By using different correlation tests and variable importance analysis, the results showed that spatial richness patterns for the three forest-dwelling terrestrial vertebrate groups had significant and stronger correlations with past forest cover area and other variables in the 1500 s, implying the evidence for extinction debts. Moreover, it was likely that the extinction debts have been partially paid, given that their global richness patterns were also significantly correlated with contemporary forest variables in the 2000 s (but the absolute magnitudes of the correlation coefficients were usually smaller than those calculated for historical forest variables). By utilizing species-area relationships, spatial extinction-debt magnitudes for the three vertebrate groups at the global scale were estimated and the hotspots of extinction debts were identified. These high-debt hotspots were generally situated in areas that did not spatially overlap with hotspots of species richness or high extinction-risk areas based on IUCN threatened status to a large extent. This spatial mismatch pattern suggested that necessary conservation efforts should be directed toward high-debt areas that are still overlooked.

  2. Extinction rates in North American freshwater fishes, 1900-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhead, Noel M.

    2012-01-01

    Widespread evidence shows that the modern rates of extinction in many plants and animals exceed background rates in the fossil record. In the present article, I investigate this issue with regard to North American freshwater fishes. From 1898 to 2006, 57 taxa became extinct, and three distinct populations were extirpated from the continent. Since 1989, the numbers of extinct North American fishes have increased by 25%. From the end of the nineteenth century to the present, modern extinctions varied by decade but significantly increased after 1950 (post-1950s mean = 7.5 extinct taxa per decade). In the twentieth century, freshwater fishes had the highest extinction rate worldwide among vertebrates. The modern extinction rate for North American freshwater fishes is conservatively estimated to be 877 times greater than the background extinction rate for freshwater fishes (one extinction every 3 million years). Reasonable estimates project that future increases in extinctions will range from 53 to 86 species by 2050.

  3. The Late Ordovician Extinction: How it became the best understood of the five major extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, P.

    2003-04-01

    The end Ordovician extinction has become arguably the best-understood major extinction event in Earth History. A plethora of workers have established the pattern of faunal change and causes of the extinction with remarkably little disagreement. The first indication of increased extinction at the end of the Ordovician was a graph of global diversity patterns by Norman Newell in 1967, although he did not recognize it as a major event. The presence of a major extinction event became clear as William Berry and Art Boucot assembled data for Silurian correlation charts in the late 1960s. The first reports of North African glaciation in the late 1960s provided a cause for the extinction and study of the event snowballed. It was no accident that recognition of the extinction began in North America, because it was there that the extinction completely overturned faunas in the epicontinental seas. Glacio-eustatic regression of shallow seaway coincided with the disappearance of endemic Laurentian faunas and replacement by a highly cosmopolitan fauna in the Silurian. Once the event was established in North America, paleontologists soon found evidence of the event around the globe. The well-documented Hirnantia Fauna was found to correspond to the glacial interval, and Pat Brenchley soon recognized that there were two pulses of extinction, at the beginning and end of the glaciation. At the same time that the faunal changes were being documented geologic studies of the glaciation provided information on the environmental changes associated with the extinction. The timing of the glacial maximum was established in Africa and by the presence of dropstones in high latitude marine rocks. The 1990s saw geochemical techniques employed that allowed examination of atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes. In many places carbonate deposition declined. Glacio-eustatic regression was obvious in many areas, and a sea-level decline in the range of 50-100 m was established. Shallow

  4. Immediate Extinction Causes a Less Durable Loss of Performance than Delayed Extinction following Either Fear or Appetitive Conditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Amanda M.; Bouton, Mark E.

    2008-01-01

    Five experiments with rat subjects compared the effects of immediate and delayed extinction on the durability of extinction learning. Three experiments examined extinction of fear conditioning (using the conditioned emotional response method), and two experiments examined extinction of appetitive conditioning (using the food-cup entry method). In…

  5. Bilateral Alternating Auditory Stimulations Facilitate Fear Extinction and Retrieval

    OpenAIRE

    Boukezzi, Sarah; Silva, Catarina; Nazarian, Bruno; Rousseau, Pierre-François; Guedj, Eric; Valenzuela-Moguillansky, Camila; Khalfa, Stéphanie

    2017-01-01

    Disruption of fear conditioning, its extinction and its retrieval are at the core of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Such deficits, especially fear extinction delay, disappear after alternating bilateral stimulations (BLS) during eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) therapy. An animal model of fear recovery, based on auditory cued fear conditioning and extinction learning, recently showed that BLS facilitate fear extinction and fear extinction retrieval. Our goal was to ...

  6. A qualitative assessment of the perceived risks of electronic cigarette and hookah use in pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahr, Maike K; Padgett, Shannon; Shope, Cindy D; Griffin, Emily N; Xie, Susan S; Gonzalez, Pablo J; Levison, Judy; Mastrobattista, Joan; Abramovici, Adi R; Northrup, Thomas F; Stotts, Angela L; Aagaard, Kjersti M; Suter, Melissa A

    2015-12-21

    Studies reveal that electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) and hookah use are increasing among adolescents and young adults. However, the long-term health effects are unknown, especially with regards to pregnancy. Because of the increased use in women of reproductive age, and the unknown long-term health risks, our primary objectives were to determine the perceived risks of e-cigarette and hookah use in pregnancy, and learn common colloquial terms associated with e-cigarettes. Furthermore, we sought to determine if there is a stigma associated with e-cigarette use in pregnancy. Eleven focus groups including 87 participants were conducted immediately following regularly scheduled CenteringPregnancy® prenatal care with women at three different clinics in the greater Houston area. A minimum of two facilitators led the groups, using ten lead-in prompts, with Spanish translation as necessary. Facilitators took notes which were compared immediately following each group discussion and each group was audio recorded and transcribed. Three facilitators utilized NVivo 9.0 software to organize the transcribed data into nodes to identify major themes. To increase rigor, transcripts were further analyzed by two obstetricians who were instructed to find the major themes. Analyses revealed contradicting themes concerning e-cigarette use. In general, e-cigarettes were perceived as safer alternatives to regular tobacco cigarettes, especially if used as smoking cessation devices. A major theme is that use in pregnancy is harmful to the fetus. However, it was perceived that use for smoking cessation in pregnancy may have fewer side effects. We found that a common term for e-cigarettes is "Blu." In our discussion of hookah use, participants perceived use as popular among teenagers and that use in pregnancy is dangerous for the fetus. Although a strong theme emerged against hookah use, we found contradicting themes in our discussions on e-cigarette use in pregnancy. It is possible that e

  7. Extinction Generates Outcome-Specific Conditioned Inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Vincent; Chieng, Billy; Balleine, Bernard W

    2016-12-05

    Extinction involves altering a previously established predictive relationship between a cue and its outcome by repeatedly presenting that cue alone. Although it is widely accepted that extinction generates some form of inhibitory learning [1-4], direct evidence for this claim has been lacking, and the nature of the associative changes induced by extinction have, therefore, remained a matter of debate [5-8]. In the current experiments, we used a novel behavioral approach that we recently developed and that provides a direct measure of conditioned inhibition [9] to compare the influence of extinguished and non-extinguished cues on choice between goal-directed actions. Using this approach, we provide direct evidence that extinction generates outcome-specific conditioned inhibition. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this inhibitory learning is controlled by the infralimbic cortex (IL); inactivation of the IL using M4 DREADDs abolished outcome-specific inhibition and rendered the cue excitatory. Importantly, we found that context modulated this inhibition. Outside its extinction context, the cue was excitatory and functioned as a specific predictor of its previously associated outcome, biasing choice toward actions earning the same outcome. In its extinction context, however, the cue acted as a specific inhibitor and biased choice toward actions earning different outcomes. Context modulation of these excitatory and inhibitory memories was mediated by the dorsal hippocampus (HPC), suggesting that the HPC and IL act in concert to control the influence of conditioned inhibitors on choice. These findings demonstrate for the first time that extinction turns a cue into a net inhibitor that can influence choice via counterfactual action-outcome associations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Low-dose total skin electron beam therapy for cutaneous lymphoma : Minimal risk of acute toxicities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Kai; Elsayad, Khaled; Moustakis, Christos; Haverkamp, Uwe; Eich, Hans Theodor

    2017-12-01

    Low-dose total skin electron beam therapy (TSEBT) is attracting increased interest for the effective palliative treatment of primary cutaneous T‑cell lymphoma (pCTCL). In this study, we compared toxicity profiles following various radiation doses. We reviewed the records of 60 patients who underwent TSEBT for pCTCL between 2000 and 2016 at the University Hospital of Munster. The treatment characteristics of the radiotherapy (RT) regimens and adverse events (AEs) were then analyzed and compared. In total, 67 courses of TSEBT were administered to 60 patients. Of these patients, 34 (51%) received a standard dose with a median surface dose of 30 Gy and 33 patients (49%) received a low dose with the median surface dose of 12 Gy (7 salvage low-dose TSEBT courses were administered to 5 patients). After a median follow-up of 15 months, the overall AE rate was 100%, including 38 patients (57%) with grade 2 and 7 (10%) with grade 3 AEs. Patients treated with low-dose TSEBT had significantly fewer grade 2 AEs than those with conventional dose regimens (33 vs. 79%, P dose regimen compared to those with the conventional dose regimens (6 vs. 15%, P = 0.78). Multiple/salvage low-dose TSEBT courses were not associated with an increased risk of acute AEs. Low-dose TSEBT regimens are associated with significantly fewer grade 2 acute toxicities compared with conventional doses of TSEBT. Repeated/Salvage low-dose TSEBT, however, appears to be tolerable and can even be applied safely in patients with cutaneous relapses.

  9. A Regularized Deep Learning Approach for Clinical Risk Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Using Electronic Health Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong; Liu, Jiquan

    2018-05-01

    Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as a common and severe cardiovascular disease, is a leading cause of death and the principal cause of serious long-term disability globally. Clinical risk prediction of ACS is important for early intervention and treatment. Existing ACS risk scoring models are based mainly on a small set of hand-picked risk factors and often dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. This study develops a regularized stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) model to stratify clinical risks of ACS patients from a large volume of electronic health records (EHR). To capture characteristics of patients at similar risk levels, and preserve the discriminating information across different risk levels, two constraints are added on SDAE to make the reconstructed feature representations contain more risk information of patients, which contribute to a better clinical risk prediction result. We validate our approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 3464 ACS patient samples. The performance of our approach for predicting ACS risk remains robust and reaches 0.868 and 0.73 in terms of both AUC and accuracy, respectively. The obtained results show that the proposed approach achieves a competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art models in dealing with the clinical risk prediction problem. In addition, our approach can extract informative risk factors of ACS via a reconstructive learning strategy. Some of these extracted risk factors are not only consistent with existing medical domain knowledge, but also contain suggestive hypotheses that could be validated by further investigations in the medical domain.

  10. Facilitation of extinction and re-extinction of operant behavior in mice by chlordiazepoxide and D-cycloserine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, Julian C; Norwood, Kelly

    2013-05-01

    The aim was to compare operant extinction with re-extinction following re-acquisition and to investigate neuropharmacological mechanisms through administration of drugs potentiating GABAergic or glutamatergic systems. Groups of C57Bl/6 mice were trained to lever press for food on a fixed ratio schedule, then extinguished with or without pre-session chlordiazepoxide or post-session d-cycloserine administration (15mg/kg in each case), then retrained to lever press for food, then re-extinguished with or without pre-session chlordiazepoxide or post-session d-cycloserine. Under vehicle injections, extinction and re-extinction curves were indistinguishable, but drug treatments showed that there was less resistance to extinction in the re-extinction phase. Chlordiazepoxide facilitated extinction and re-extinction, with an earlier effect during re-extinction. d-Cycloserine also facilitated extinction and re-extinction, with some evidence of an earlier effect during re-extinction. These results replicate and extend earlier findings with operant extinction, but differ from some previous reports of d-cycloserine on re-extinction of Pavlovian conditioned fear. Implications for accounts of the similarities and differences between neural mechanisms of extinction following either Pavlovian or operant conditioning, and applications of these findings, are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Fluoxetine Facilitates Fear Extinction Through Amygdala Endocannabinoids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Flynn, Shaun; Brockway, Emma; Kaugars, Katherine; Baldi, Rita; Ramikie, Teniel S; Cinar, Resat; Kunos, George; Patel, Sachin; Holmes, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacologically elevating brain endocannabinoids (eCBs) share anxiolytic and fear extinction-facilitating properties with classical therapeutics, including the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor, fluoxetine. There are also known functional interactions between the eCB and serotonin systems and preliminary evidence that antidepressants cause alterations in brain eCBs. However, the potential role of eCBs in mediating the facilitatory effects of fluoxetine on fear extinction has not been established. Here, to test for a possible mechanistic contribution of eCBs to fluoxetine's proextinction effects, we integrated biochemical, electrophysiological, pharmacological, and behavioral techniques, using the extinction-impaired 129S1/Sv1mJ mouse strain. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced a significant and selective increase in levels of anandamide in the BLA, and an associated decrease in activity of the anandamide-catabolizing enzyme, fatty acid amide hydrolase. Slice electrophysiological recordings showed that fluoxetine-induced increases in anandamide were associated with the amplification of eCB-mediated tonic constraint of inhibitory, but not excitatory, transmission in the BLA. Behaviorally, chronic fluoxetine facilitated extinction retrieval in a manner that was prevented by systemic or BLA-specific blockade of CB1 receptors. In contrast to fluoxetine, citalopram treatment did not increase BLA eCBs or facilitate extinction. Taken together, these findings reveal a novel, obligatory role for amygdala eCBs in the proextinction effects of a major pharmacotherapy for trauma- and stressor-related disorders and anxiety disorders. PMID:26514583

  12. Neural signals of vicarious extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golkar, Armita; Haaker, Jan; Selbing, Ida; Olsson, Andreas

    2016-10-01

    Social transmission of both threat and safety is ubiquitous, but little is known about the neural circuitry underlying vicarious safety learning. This is surprising given that these processes are critical to flexibly adapt to a changeable environment. To address how the expression of previously learned fears can be modified by the transmission of social information, two conditioned stimuli (CS + s) were paired with shock and the third was not. During extinction, we held constant the amount of direct, non-reinforced, exposure to the CSs (i.e. direct extinction), and critically varied whether another individual-acting as a demonstrator-experienced safety (CS + vic safety) or aversive reinforcement (CS + vic reinf). During extinction, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) responses to the CS + vic reinf increased but decreased to the CS + vic safety This pattern of vmPFC activity was reversed during a subsequent fear reinstatement test, suggesting a temporal shift in the involvement of the vmPFC. Moreover, only the CS + vic reinf association recovered. Our data suggest that vicarious extinction prevents the return of conditioned fear responses, and that this efficacy is reflected by diminished vmPFC involvement during extinction learning. The present findings may have important implications for understanding how social information influences the persistence of fear memories in individuals suffering from emotional disorders. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Selection, subdivision and extinction and recolonization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Joshua L

    2004-02-01

    In a subdivided population, the interaction between natural selection and stochastic change in allele frequency is affected by the occurrence of local extinction and subsequent recolonization. The relative importance of selection can be diminished by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. Results are presented for subdivided populations with extinction and recolonization where there is more than one founding allele after extinction, where these may tend to come from the same source deme, where the number of founding alleles is variable or the founders make unequal contributions, and where there is dominance for fitness or local frequency dependence. The behavior of a selected allele in a subdivided population is in all these situations approximately the same as that of an allele with different selection parameters in an unstructured population with a different size. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability in the case of genic selection, is always decreased by extinction and recolonization, so that deleterious alleles are more likely to fix and advantageous alleles less likely to do so. The importance of dominance or frequency dependence is also altered by extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations.

  14. Mass Extinctions and Biosphere-Geosphere Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothman, Daniel; Bowring, Samuel

    2015-04-01

    Five times in the past 500 million years, mass extinctions have resulted in the loss of greater than three-fourths of living species. Each of these events is associated with significant environmental change recorded in the carbon-isotopic composition of sedimentary rocks. There are also many such environmental events in the geologic record that are not associated with mass extinctions. What makes them different? Two factors appear important: the size of the environmental perturbation, and the time scale over which it occurs. We show that the natural perturbations of Earth's carbon cycle during the past 500 million years exhibit a characteristic rate of change over two orders of magnitude in time scale. This characteristic rate is consistent with the maximum rate that limits quasistatic (i.e., near steady-state) evolution of the carbon cycle. We identify this rate with marginal stability, and show that mass extinctions occur on the fast, unstable side of the stability boundary. These results suggest that the great extinction events of the geologic past, and potentially a "sixth extinction" associated with modern environmental change, are characterized by common mechanisms of instability.

  15. Quantitative analysis of forest fire extinction efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel E. Castillo-Soto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Evaluate the economic extinction efficiency of forest fires, based on the study of fire combat undertaken by aerial and terrestrial means. Area of study, materials and methods: Approximately 112,000 hectares in Chile. Records of 5,876 forest fires that occurred between 1998 and 2009 were analyzed. The area further provides a validation sector for results, by incorporating databases for the years 2010 and 2012. The criteria used for measuring extinction efficiency were economic value of forestry resources, Contraction Factor analysis and definition of the extinction costs function. Main results: It is possible to establish a relationship between burnt area, extinction costs and economic losses. The method proposed may be used and adapted to other fire situations, requiring unit costs for aerial and terrestrial operations, economic value of the property to be protected and speed attributes of fire spread in free advance. Research highlights: The determination of extinction efficiency in containment works of forest fires and potential projection of losses, different types of plant fuel and local conditions favoring the spread of fire broaden the admissible ranges of a, φ and Ce considerably.

  16. Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2018-06-01

    Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  18. Astrophysical life extinctions what killed the dinosaurs?

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon

    1999-01-01

    Geological records indicate that the exponential diversification of marine and continental life on Earth in the past 500 My was interrupted by many life extinctions. They also indicate that the major mass extinctions were correlated in time with large meteoritic impacts, gigantic volcanic eruptions, sea regressions and drastic changes in global climate. Some of these catastrophes coincided in time. The astrophysical life extinction mechanisms which were proposed so far, in particular, meteoritic impacts, nearby supernova explosions, passage through molecular or dark matter clouds, and Galactic gamma/cosmic ray bursts cannot explain the time coincidences between these catastrophes. However, recent observations suggest that many planetary-mass objects may be present in the outer solar system between the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud. Gravitational perturbations may occasionally bring them into the inner solar system. Their passage near Earth could have generated gigantic tidal waves, large volcanic eruptions, ...

  19. Biotic extinctions by solar flares; and reply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beland, P.; Russell, D.A.; Crutzen, P.J.; Reid, G.C.

    1976-01-01

    Some comments are offered on the paper by Reid and others (nature 259:177 (1976)) in which a mechanism was suggested by which solar protons might catastrophically deplete atmospheric D 3 during a reversal of the Earth's geomagnetic field. Organisms would thereby be exposed to a more intense UV environment, leading to species extinctions. These authors assumed that during a reversal the geomagnetic field effectively disappears for about 1000 years, and also that solar flares sufficiently intense to cause extinctions occur at intervals of 1000 years or more. The validity of these assumptions is here examined using data on geomagnetic reversals identified over the past 75 M years, together with extinction data, and some anomalies are pointed out. A reply by Reid and others is appended. (U.K.)

  20. The fossil record of the sixth extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotnick, Roy E; Smith, Felisa A; Lyons, S Kathleen

    2016-05-01

    Comparing the magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis with those in the fossil record is difficult without an understanding of differential preservation. Integrating data from palaeontological databases with information on IUCN status, ecology and life history characteristics of contemporary mammals, we demonstrate that only a small and biased fraction of threatened species (fossil record, compared with 20% of non-threatened species. We find strong taphonomic biases related to body size and geographic range. Modern species with a fossil record tend to be large and widespread and were described in the 19(th) century. The expected magnitude of the current extinction based only on species with a fossil record is about half of that of one based on all modern species; values for genera are similar. The record of ancient extinctions may be similarly biased, with many species having originated and gone extinct without leaving a tangible record. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  2. Mammal extinctions, body size, and paleotemperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bown, T M; Holroyd, P A; Rose, K D

    1994-10-25

    There is a general inverse relationship between the natural logarithm of tooth area (a body size indicator) of some fossil mammals and paleotemperature during approximately 2.9 million years of the early Eocene in the Bighorn Basin of northwest Wyoming. When mean temperatures became warmer, tooth areas tended to become smaller. During colder times, larger species predominated; these generally became larger or remained the same size. Paleotemperature trends also markedly affected patterns of local (and, perhaps, regional) extinction and immigration. New species appeared as immigrants during or near the hottest (smaller forms) and coldest (larger forms) intervals. Paleotemperature trend reversals commonly resulted in the ultimate extinction of both small forms (during cooling intervals) and larger forms (during warming intervals). These immigrations and extinctions mark faunal turnovers that were also modulated by sharp increases in sediment accumulation rate.

  3. Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Wake, David B.; Vredenburg, Vance T.

    2008-01-01

    Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amp...

  4. Using Electronic Health Records to Examine Disease Risk in Small Populations: Obesity Among American Indian Children, Wisconsin, 2007-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomayko, Emily J; Weinert, Bethany A; Godfrey, Liz; Adams, Alexandra K; Hanrahan, Lawrence P

    2016-02-25

    Tribe-based or reservation-based data consistently show disproportionately high obesity rates among American Indian children, but little is known about the approximately 75% of American Indian children living off-reservation. We examined obesity among American Indian children seeking care off-reservation by using a database of de-identified electronic health records linked to community-level census variables. Data from electronic health records from American Indian children and a reference sample of non-Hispanic white children collected from 2007 through 2012 were abstracted to determine obesity prevalence. Related community-level and individual-level risk factors (eg, economic hardship, demographics) were examined using logistic regression. The obesity rate for American Indian children (n = 1,482) was double the rate among non-Hispanic white children (n = 81,042) (20.0% vs 10.6%, P American Indian children were less likely to have had a well-child visit (55.9% vs 67.1%, P American Indian records (18.3% vs 14.6%, P obesity risk among American Indian children (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.1) independent of age, sex, economic hardship, insurance status, and geographic designation. An electronic health record data set demonstrated high obesity rates for nonreservation-based American Indian children, rates that had not been previously assessed. This low-cost method may be used for assessing health risk for other understudied populations and to plan and evaluate targeted interventions.

  5. Interstellar extinction in the Taurus dark clouds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meistas, E.; Straizys, V.

    1981-01-01

    The results of photoelectric photometry of 89 stars in the Vilnius seven-color system in the area of the Taurus dark clouds with corrdinates (1950) 4sup(h)16sup(m)-4sup(h)33sup(m), +16 0 -+20 0 are presented. Photometric spectral types, absolute magnitude, color excesses, interstellar extinctions and distances of the stars are determined. The distance of the dark nebula is found to be 140 pc and is in a good agreement with the distance determined for the dark nebula Khavtassi 286, 278. The average extinction Asub(v) in the investigated area is of the order of 1.4. (author)

  6. Light extinction method on high-pressure diesel injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tzay-Fa; El-Beshbeeshy, Mahmound S.; Corradini, Michael L.; Farrell, Patrick V.

    1995-09-01

    A two dimensional optical diagnostic technique based on light extinction was improved and demonstrated in an investigation of diesel spray characteristics at high injection pressures. Traditional light extinction methods require the spray image to be perpendicular to the light path. In the improved light extinction scheme, a tilted spray image which has an angle with the light path is still capable of being processed. This technique utilizes high speed photography and digital image analysis to obtain qualitative and quantitative information of the spray characteristics. The injection system used was an electronically controlled common rail unit injector system with injection pressures up to 100 MPa. The nozzle of the injector was a mini-sac type with six holes on the nozzle tip. Two different injection angle nozzles, 125 degree(s) and 140 degree(s), producing an in-plane tilted spray and an out of plane tilted spray were investigated. The experiments were conducted on a constant volume spray chamber with the injector mounted tilted at an angle of 62.5 degree(s)$. Only one spray plume was viewed, and other sprays were free to inject to the chamber. The spray chamber was pressurized with argon and air under room temperature to match the combustion chamber density at the start of the injection. The experimental results show that the difference in the spray tip penetration length, spray angle, and overall average Sauter mean diameter is small between the in- plane tilted spray and the out of plane tilted spray. The results also show that in-plane tilted spray has a slightly larger axial cross- section Sauter mean diameter than the out of plane tilted spray.

  7. Potential suitable areas of giant ground sloths dropped before its extinction in South America

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Varela, Sara; Nogues, David Bravo

    2012-01-01

    of the climate preferences through time for the two species and modeled their potential distributions at last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 ky BP) and mid-Holocene (6 ky BP) using Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling (BEM), fossil records and paleoclimatic simulations. The model predictions showed a drastic reduction......Here we analyze the effects that climatic changes through last ice age had on the potential distributions and extinction risk dynamics of two extinct species of South American giant ground sloths, Eremotherium laurillardi and Megatherium americanum. We tested the assumption of stability...

  8. Frequency of decompression illness among recent and extinct mammals and "reptiles": a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Agnete Weinreich

    2017-08-01

    The frequency of decompression illness was high among the extinct marine "reptiles" and very low among the marine mammals. Signs of decompression illness are still found among turtles but whales and seals are unaffected. In humans, the risk of decompression illness is five times increased in individuals with Patent Foramen Ovale; this condition allows blood shunting from the venous circuit to the systemic circuit. This right-left shunt is characteristic of the "reptile" heart, and it is suggested that this could contribute to the high frequency of decompression illness in the extinct reptiles.

  9. Identification of high-risk areas for harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena bycatch using remote electronic monitoring and satellite telemetry data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindt-Larsen, Lotte; Berg, Casper Willestofte; Tougaard, J.

    2016-01-01

    grounds, quantify fishing effort and document harbour porpoise bycatch. Movement data from 66 harbour porpoises equipped with satellite transmitters from 1997 to 2012 were used to model population density. A simple model was constructed to investigate the relationship between the response (number...... telemetry or REM data allow for identification of areas of potential high and low bycatch risk, and better predictions are obtained when combining the 2 sources of data. The final model can thus be used as a tool to identify areas of bycatch risk...... and lower risk of porpoise bycatch. From May 2010 to April 2011, 4 commercial gillnet vessels were equipped with remote electronic monitoring (REM) systems. The REM system recorded time, GPS position and closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage of all gillnet hauls. REM data were used to identify fishing...

  10. Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-03-29

    Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  11. Extinction properties of single-walled carbon nanotubes: Two-fluid model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moradi, Afshin, E-mail: a.moradi@kut.ac.ir [Department of Basic Sciences, Kermanshah University of Technology, Kermanshah, Iran and Department of Nano Science, Institute for Studies in Theoretical Physics and Mathematics (IPM), Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2014-03-15

    The extinction spectra of a single-walled carbon nanotube are investigated, within the framework of the vector wave function method in conjunction with the hydrodynamic model. Both polarizations of the incident plane wave (TE and TM with respect to the x-z plane) are treated. Electronic excitations on the nanotube surface are modeled by an infinitesimally thin layer of a two-dimensional electron gas represented by two interacting fluids, which takes into account the different nature of the σ and π electrons. Numerical results show that strong interaction between the fluids gives rise to the splitting of the extinction spectra into two peaks in quantitative agreement with the π and σ + π plasmon energies.

  12. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; M. F. Graswinckel,; M.R. de Baar,

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This

  13. ULTRAVIOLET EXTINCTION AT HIGH GALACTIC LATITUDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peek, J. E. G.; Schiminovich, David, E-mail: jegpeek@gmail.com [Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, New York, NY (United States)

    2013-07-01

    In order to study the properties and effects of high Galactic latitude dust, we present an analysis of 373,303 galaxies selected from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer All-Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Explorer All-Sky Data Release. By examining the variation in aggregate ultraviolet colors and number density of these galaxies, we measure the extinction curve at high latitude. We additionally consider a population of spectroscopically selected galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to measure extinction in the optical. We find that dust at high latitude is neither quantitatively nor qualitatively consistent with standard reddening laws. Extinction in the FUV and NUV is {approx}10% and {approx}35% higher than expected, with significant variation across the sky. We find that no single R{sub V} parameter fits both the optical and ultraviolet extinction at high latitude, and that while both show detectable variation across the sky, these variations are not related. We propose that the overall trends we detect likely stem from an increase in very small silicate grains in the interstellar medium.

  14. The Neandertal extinction in eastern Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svoboda, Jiří

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 137, - (2005), s. 69-75 ISSN 1040-6182 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z80010507 Keywords : Central Europe Neandertals * early modern humans * extinction Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology Impact factor: 1.210, year: 2005

  15. ULTRAVIOLET EXTINCTION AT HIGH GALACTIC LATITUDES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peek, J. E. G.; Schiminovich, David

    2013-01-01

    In order to study the properties and effects of high Galactic latitude dust, we present an analysis of 373,303 galaxies selected from the Galaxy Evolution Explorer All-Sky Survey and Wide-field Infrared Explorer All-Sky Data Release. By examining the variation in aggregate ultraviolet colors and number density of these galaxies, we measure the extinction curve at high latitude. We additionally consider a population of spectroscopically selected galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to measure extinction in the optical. We find that dust at high latitude is neither quantitatively nor qualitatively consistent with standard reddening laws. Extinction in the FUV and NUV is ∼10% and ∼35% higher than expected, with significant variation across the sky. We find that no single R V parameter fits both the optical and ultraviolet extinction at high latitude, and that while both show detectable variation across the sky, these variations are not related. We propose that the overall trends we detect likely stem from an increase in very small silicate grains in the interstellar medium.

  16. Interstellar Extinction in the Gaia Photometric Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bridžius A.

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Three medium-band photometric systems proposed for the Gaia space mission are intercompared in determining color excesses for stars of spectral classes from O to M at V = 18 mag. A possibility of obtaining a three-dimensional map of the interstellar extinction is discussed.

  17. Optical atmospheric extinction over Cerro Paranal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patat, F.; Moehler, S.; O'Brien, K.; Pompei, E.; Bensby, T.; Carraro, G.; de Ugarte Postigo, A.; Fox, A.; Gavignaud, I.; James, G.; Korhonen, H.; Ledoux, C.; Randall, S.; Sana, H.A.A.; Smoker, J.; Stefl, S.; Szeifert, T.

    2011-01-01

    Aims. The present study was conducted to determine the optical extinction curve for Cerro Paranal under typical clear-sky observing conditions, with the purpose of providing the community with a function to be used to correct the observed spectra, with an accuracy of 0.01 mag airmass-1.

  18. A new explanation of the extinction paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, M.J.; Sorensen, C.M.; Chakrabarti, A.

    2011-01-01

    This work presents a new explanation for the extinction paradox and shows that the canonical explanations are incorrect. This paradox refers to the large size limit of a particle's extinction cross section. It is called a paradox because the geometrical optics approximation, which should be valid in this limit, predicts a cross section that is half of the true value. The new explanation is achieved by formulating the scattered wave in terms of an integral over the particle's surface where the seemingly unrelated Ewald-Oseen theorem appears in the formulation. By expressing the cross section in terms of this surface integral, the Ewald-Oseen theorem is analytically connected to the cross section. Several illustrations are used to reveal the significance of this connection: The paradox is seen to be a consequence of the requirement that the incident wave be canceled within the particle by secondary radiation from its own internal field. Following this, the canonical explanations are examined to reveal serious problems. In the process, the same asymptotic extinction behavior is shown to occur for small highly refractive dielectric particles, and thus is not just a large particle size or small wavelength effect as is often stated. The traditional explanations cannot account for this behavior while the new one actually predicts it. All in all, this work constitutes a fundamental reworking of 60 years of accepted understanding for the cause of the asymptotic behavior of the extinction cross section.

  19. Methylphenidate Enhances Extinction of Contextual Fear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Antony D.; Cunningham, Christopher L.; Lattal, K. Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Methylphenidate (MPH, Ritalin) is a norepinephrine and dopamine transporter blocker that is widely used in humans for treatment of attention deficit disorder and narcolepsy. Although there is some evidence that targeted microinjections of MPH may enhance fear acquisition, little is known about the effect of MPH on fear extinction. Here, we show…

  20. Dust extinction in the first galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaacks, Jason; Finkelstein, Steven L.; Bromm, Volker

    2018-04-01

    Using cosmological volume simulations and a custom built sub-grid model for Population III (Pop III) star formation, we examine the baseline dust extinction in the first galaxies due to Pop III metal enrichment in the first billion years of cosmic history. We find that although the most enriched, high-density lines of sight in primordial galaxies can experience a measurable amount of extinction from Pop III dust [E(B - V)max = 0.07, AV, max ≈ 0.28], the average extinction is very low with ≲ 10-3. We derive a power-law relationship between dark matter halo mass and extinction of E(B-V)∝ M_halo^{0.80}. Performing a Monte Carlo parameter study, we establish the baseline reddening of the ultraviolet spectra of dwarf galaxies at high redshift due to Pop III enrichment only. With this method, we find - 2.51 ± 0.07, which is both nearly halo mass and redshift independent.

  1. Stressor controllability modulates fear extinction in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Catherine A.; Gorun, Alyson; Reddan, Marianne C.; Ramirez, Franchesca; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic events are proposed to play a role in the development of anxiety disorders, however not all individuals exposed to extreme stress experience a pathological increase in fear. Recent studies in animal models suggest that the degree to which one is able to control an aversive experience is a critical factor determining its behavioral consequences. In this study, we examined whether stressor controllability modulates subsequent conditioned fear expression in humans. Participants were randomly assigned to an escapable stressor condition, a yoked inescapable stressor condition, or a control condition involving no stress exposure. One week later, all participants underwent fear conditioning, fear extinction, and a test of extinction retrieval the following day. Participants exposed to inescapable stress showed impaired fear extinction learning and increased fear expression the following day. In contrast, escapable stress improved fear extinction and prevented the spontaneous recovery of fear. Consistent with the bidirectional controllability effects previously reported in animal models, these results suggest that one's degree of control over aversive experiences may be an important factor influencing the development of psychological resilience or vulnerability in humans. PMID:24333646

  2. Breeding Young as a Survival Strategy during Earth’s Greatest Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botha-Brink, Jennifer; Codron, Daryl; Huttenlocker, Adam K.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.; Ruta, Marcello

    2016-04-01

    Studies of the effects of mass extinctions on ancient ecosystems have focused on changes in taxic diversity, morphological disparity, abundance, behaviour and resource availability as key determinants of group survival. Crucially, the contribution of life history traits to survival during terrestrial mass extinctions has not been investigated, despite the critical role of such traits for population viability. We use bone microstructure and body size data to investigate the palaeoecological implications of changes in life history strategies in the therapsid forerunners of mammals before and after the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME), the most catastrophic crisis in Phanerozoic history. Our results are consistent with truncated development, shortened life expectancies, elevated mortality rates and higher extinction risks amongst post-extinction species. Various simulations of ecological dynamics indicate that an earlier onset of reproduction leading to shortened generation times could explain the persistence of therapsids in the unpredictable, resource-limited Early Triassic environments, and help explain observed body size distributions of some disaster taxa (e.g., Lystrosaurus). Our study accounts for differential survival in mammal ancestors after the PTME and provides a methodological framework for quantifying survival strategies in other vertebrates during major biotic crises.

  3. Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

  4. Low-dose total skin electron beam therapy for cutaneous lymphoma. Minimal risk of acute toxicities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kroeger, Kai; Elsayad, Khaled; Moustakis, Christos; Haverkamp, Uwe; Eich, Hans Theodor [University Hospital of Muenster, Department of Radiation Oncology, Muenster (Germany)

    2017-12-15

    Low-dose total skin electron beam therapy (TSEBT) is attracting increased interest for the effective palliative treatment of primary cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (pCTCL). In this study, we compared toxicity profiles following various radiation doses. We reviewed the records of 60 patients who underwent TSEBT for pCTCL between 2000 and 2016 at the University Hospital of Munster. The treatment characteristics of the radiotherapy (RT) regimens and adverse events (AEs) were then analyzed and compared. In total, 67 courses of TSEBT were administered to 60 patients. Of these patients, 34 (51%) received a standard dose with a median surface dose of 30 Gy and 33 patients (49%) received a low dose with the median surface dose of 12 Gy (7 salvage low-dose TSEBT courses were administered to 5 patients). After a median follow-up of 15 months, the overall AE rate was 100%, including 38 patients (57%) with grade 2 and 7 (10%) with grade 3 AEs. Patients treated with low-dose TSEBT had significantly fewer grade 2 AEs than those with conventional dose regimens (33 vs. 79%, P < 0.001). A lower grade 3 AE rate was also observed in patients who had received the low-dose regimen compared to those with the conventional dose regimens (6 vs. 15%, P = 0.78). Multiple/salvage low-dose TSEBT courses were not associated with an increased risk of acute AEs. Low-dose TSEBT regimens are associated with significantly fewer grade 2 acute toxicities compared with conventional doses of TSEBT. Repeated/Salvage low-dose TSEBT, however, appears to be tolerable and can even be applied safely in patients with cutaneous relapses. (orig.) [German] Eine niedrigdosierte Ganzhautelektronenbestrahlung (TSEBT) wird vermehrt zur effektiven palliativen Behandlung von Patienten mit primaer kutanen T-Zell-Lymphomen (pCTCL) eingesetzt. In dieser Studie vergleichen wir die Toxizitaetsprofile verschiedener Dosiskonzepte. Untersucht wurden 60 zwischen 2000 und 2016 am Universitaetsklinikum Muenster mittels TSEBT

  5. Biological hierarchies and the nature of extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congreve, Curtis R; Falk, Amanda R; Lamsdell, James C

    2018-05-01

    Hierarchy theory recognises that ecological and evolutionary units occur in a nested and interconnected hierarchical system, with cascading effects occurring between hierarchical levels. Different biological disciplines have routinely come into conflict over the primacy of different forcing mechanisms behind evolutionary and ecological change. These disconnects arise partly from differences in perspective (with some researchers favouring ecological forcing mechanisms while others favour developmental/historical mechanisms), as well as differences in the temporal framework in which workers operate. In particular, long-term palaeontological data often show that large-scale (macro) patterns of evolution are predominantly dictated by shifts in the abiotic environment, while short-term (micro) modern biological studies stress the importance of biotic interactions. We propose that thinking about ecological and evolutionary interactions in a hierarchical framework is a fruitful way to resolve these conflicts. Hierarchy theory suggests that changes occurring at lower hierarchical levels can have unexpected, complex effects at higher scales due to emergent interactions between simple systems. In this way, patterns occurring on short- and long-term time scales are equally valid, as changes that are driven from lower levels will manifest in different forms at higher levels. We propose that the dual hierarchy framework fits well with our current understanding of evolutionary and ecological theory. Furthermore, we describe how this framework can be used to understand major extinction events better. Multi-generational attritional loss of reproductive fitness (MALF) has recently been proposed as the primary mechanism behind extinction events, whereby extinction is explainable solely through processes that result in extirpation of populations through a shutdown of reproduction. While not necessarily explicit, the push to explain extinction through solely population-level dynamics

  6. Biogeographic and bathymetric determinants of brachiopod extinction and survival during the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finnegan, Seth; Mac Ørum Rasmussen, Christian; Harper, David A. T.

    2016-01-01

    –Early Silurian genus extinctions and evaluate which extinction drivers are best supported by the data. The first (latest Katian) pulse of the LOME preferentially affected genera restricted to deeper waters or to relatively narrow (less than 35°) palaeolatitudinal ranges. This pattern is only observed...... in the latest Katian, suggesting that it reflects drivers unique to this interval. Extinction of exclusively deeper-water genera implies that changes in water mass properties such as dissolved oxygen content played an important role. Extinction of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges suggests that interactions...... between shifting climate zones and palaeobiogeography may also have been important. We test the latter hypothesis by estimating whether each genus would have been able to track habitats within its thermal tolerance range during the greenhouse–icehouse climate transition. Models including these estimates...

  7. Endangered Species and Natural Resource Exploitation: Extinction vs. Coexistence

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    1994-01-01

    The threat on the survival of animal species due to intensive use of natural resources is incorporated within resource management models, paying special attention to uncertainty regarding the conditions that lead to extinction. The manner in which the potential benefits forgone due to the species extinction (denoted extinction penalty) induce more conservative exploitation policies is studied in detail. When the extinction penalty is ignored, the optimal policy is to drive the resource stock ...

  8. Extinction models for cancer stem cell therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehl, Mary; Zhou, Hua; Sinsheimer, Janet S.; Lange, Kenneth L.

    2012-01-01

    Cells with stem cell-like properties are now viewed as initiating and sustaining many cancers. This suggests that cancer can be cured by driving these cancer stem cells to extinction. The problem with this strategy is that ordinary stem cells are apt to be killed in the process. This paper sets bounds on the killing differential (difference between death rates of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells) that must exist for the survival of an adequate number of normal stem cells. Our main tools are birth–death Markov chains in continuous time. In this framework, we investigate the extinction times of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells. Application of extreme value theory from mathematical statistics yields an accurate asymptotic distribution and corresponding moments for both extinction times. We compare these distributions for the two cell populations as a function of the killing rates. Perhaps a more telling comparison involves the number of normal stem cells NH at the extinction time of the cancer stem cells. Conditioning on the asymptotic time to extinction of the cancer stem cells allows us to calculate the asymptotic mean and variance of NH. The full distribution of NH can be retrieved by the finite Fourier transform and, in some parameter regimes, by an eigenfunction expansion. Finally, we discuss the impact of quiescence (the resting state) on stem cell dynamics. Quiescence can act as a sanctuary for cancer stem cells and imperils the proposed therapy. We approach the complication of quiescence via multitype branching process models and stochastic simulation. Improvements to the τ-leaping method of stochastic simulation make it a versatile tool in this context. We conclude that the proposed therapy must target quiescent cancer stem cells as well as actively dividing cancer stem cells. The current cancer models demonstrate the virtue of attacking the same quantitative questions from a variety of modeling, mathematical, and computational perspectives

  9. Perceptions of the risk of child abduction or loss and the utility of child electronic security devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, R M; Pasnak, R

    1997-09-01

    Perceptions of the susceptibility of young children to becoming lost or being abducted, and of the potential usefulness of child electronic security devices, were examined via a questionnaire. Data were provided by 41 volunteers, most of them from a local government office centre. The questionnaire asked for demographic data, and then for the risk of a child being abducted or lost when under the supervision of different caregivers and in different situations. The probable effectiveness of three common abductor ploys was also addressed. The questionnaire concluded with 10 questions about child electronic security devices. Respondents viewed mothers, fathers, and grandparents as equally responsible caregivers and young adults/babysitters as the least responsible. These effects diminished as the age of the children increased. The garden at home was judged to be the most secure environment for children of all ages, while an amusement park was judged the least secure environment. Children were perceived to be more at risk of an abduction when a stranger asked for physical assistance or to take them to the hospital because their parents were hurt, than when asked for directions. Furthermore, the respondents expressed a moderately strong need for child electronic security devices, and viewed parents who use them as more responsible than those who do not.

  10. Predicting Sepsis Risk Using the "Sniffer" Algorithm in the Electronic Medical Record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olenick, Evelyn M; Zimbro, Kathie S; DʼLima, Gabrielle M; Ver Schneider, Patricia; Jones, Danielle

    The Sepsis "Sniffer" Algorithm (SSA) has merit as a digital sepsis alert but should be considered an adjunct to versus an alternative for the Nurse Screening Tool (NST), given lower specificity and positive predictive value. The SSA reduced the risk of incorrectly categorizing patients at low risk for sepsis, detected sepsis high risk in half the time, and reduced redundant NST screens by 70% and manual screening hours by 64% to 72%. Preserving nurse hours expended on manual sepsis alerts may translate into time directed toward other patient priorities.

  11. Fibroblast Growth Factor-2 Alters the Nature of Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Bronwyn M.; Richardson, Rick

    2011-01-01

    These experiments examined the effects of the NMDA-receptor (NMDAr) antagonist MK801 on reacquisition and re-extinction of a conditioned fear that had been previously extinguished before injection of fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF2) or vehicle. Recent findings have shown that relearning and re-extinction, unlike initial learning and extinction,…

  12. Inhibition of Estradiol Synthesis Impairs Fear Extinction in Male Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Bronwyn M.; Milad, Mohammed R.

    2014-01-01

    Emerging research has demonstrated that the sex hormone estradiol regulates fear extinction in female rodents and women. Estradiol may also regulate fear extinction in males, given its role in synaptic plasticity in both sexes. Here we report that inhibition of estradiol synthesis during extinction training, via the aromatase inhibitor fadrozole,…

  13. Slower Reacquisition after Partial Extinction in Human Contingency Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morís, Joaquín; Barberia, Itxaso; Vadillo, Miguel A.; Andrades, Ainhoa; López, Francisco J.

    2017-01-01

    Extinction is a very relevant learning phenomenon from a theoretical and applied point of view. One of its most relevant features is that relapse phenomena often take place once the extinction training has been completed. Accordingly, as extinction-based therapies constitute the most widespread empirically validated treatment of anxiety disorders,…

  14. A study of the fundamental characteristics of 2175A extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardelli, Jason A.; Savage, Blair D.

    1987-01-01

    The characteristics of interstellar extinction were studied in the region of the 2175 A feature for lines of sight which appear to exhibit unusually weak ultraviolet extinction. The analysis was based upon a parameterization of the observed extinction via fitting specific mathematical functions in order to determine the position and width of the 2175 A feature. The data are currently being analyzed.

  15. Selecting for extinction: nonrandom disease-associated extinction homogenizes amphibian biotas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kevin G; Lips, Karen R; Chase, Jonathan M

    2009-10-01

    Studying the patterns in which local extinctions occur is critical to understanding how extinctions affect biodiversity at local, regional and global spatial scales. To understand the importance of patterns of extinction at a regional spatial scale, we use data from extirpations associated with a widespread pathogenic agent of amphibian decline, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) as a model system. We apply novel null model analyses to these data to determine whether recent extirpations associated with Bd have resulted in selective extinction and homogenization of diverse tropical American amphibian biotas. We find that Bd-associated extinctions in this region were nonrandom and disproportionately, but not exclusively, affected low-occupancy and endemic species, resulting in homogenization of the remnant amphibian fauna. The pattern of extirpations also resulted in phylogenetic homogenization at the family level and ecological homogenization of reproductive mode and habitat association. Additionally, many more species were extirpated from the region than would be expected if extirpations occurred randomly. Our results indicate that amphibian declines in this region are an extinction filter, reducing regional amphibian biodiversity to highly similar relict assemblages and ultimately causing amplified biodiversity loss at regional and global scales.

  16. Population prevalence and control of cardiovascular risk factors: What electronic medical records tell us

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arantxa Catalán-Ramos

    2014-01-01

    Conclusions: Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor in the Catalan population attended at primary care centers. About two thirds of individuals with hypertension or DM2 were adequately controlled; hypercholesterolemia control was particularly low.

  17. Electronic Health Record-Enabled Big-Data Approaches to Nephrotoxin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury Risk Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Scott M

    2018-06-09

    Nephrotoxin-associated acute kidney injury (NTx-AKI) has become one of the most common causes of AKI among hospitalized adults and children; across acute and intensive care populations, exposure to nephrotoxins accounts for 15-25% of AKI. Although some interventions have shown promise in observational studies, no treatments currently exist for NTx-AKI once it occurs. Thus, nearly all effective strategies are aimed at prevention. The primary obstacle to prevention is risk prediction and the determination of which patients are more likely to develop NTx-AKI when exposed to medications with nephrotoxic potential. Historically, traditional statistical modeling has been applied to previously recognized clinical risk factors to identify predictors of NTx-AKI. However, increased electronic health record adoption and the evolution of "big-data" approaches to predictive analytics may offer a unique opportunity to prevent NTx-AKI events. This article describes prior and current approaches to NTx-AKI prediction and offers three novel use cases for electronic health record-enabled NTx-AKI forecasting and risk profiling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  18. The paradoxical extinction of the most charismatic animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courchamp, Franck; Jaric, Ivan; Albert, Céline; Meinard, Yves; Ripple, William J; Chapron, Guillaume

    2018-04-01

    A widespread opinion is that conservation efforts disproportionately benefit charismatic species. However, this doesn't mean that they are not threatened, and which species are "charismatic" remains unclear. Here, we identify the 10 most charismatic animals and show that they are at high risk of imminent extinction in the wild. We also find that the public ignores these animals' predicament and we suggest it could be due to the observed biased perception of their abundance, based more on their profusion in our culture than on their natural populations. We hypothesize that this biased perception impairs conservation efforts because people are unaware that the animals they cherish face imminent extinction and do not perceive their urgent need for conservation. By freely using the image of rare and threatened species in their product marketing, many companies may participate in creating this biased perception, with unintended detrimental effects on conservation efforts, which should be compensated by channeling part of the associated profits to conservation. According to our hypothesis, this biased perception would be likely to last as long as the massive cultural and commercial presence of charismatic species is not accompanied by adequate information campaigns about the imminent threats they face.

  19. The use and risk of portable electronic devices while cycling among different age groups.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goldenbeld, C. Houtenbos, M. Ehlers, E. & Waard, D. de

    2012-01-01

    In The Netherlands, a survey was set up to monitor the extent of the use of portable, electronic devices while cycling amongst different age groups of cyclists and to estimate the possible consequences for safety. The main research questions concerned age differences in the self-reported use of

  20. The use and risk of portable electronic devices while cycling among different age groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goldenbeld, C.; Houtenbos, M.; Ehlers, E.; De Waard, D.

    Introduction: In the Netherlands, a survey was set up to monitor the extent of the use of portable, electronic devices while cycling amongst different age groups of cyclists and to estimate the possible consequences for safety. Method: The main research questions concerned age differences in the

  1. Patterning of a compound eye on an extinct dipteran wing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinwiddie, April; Rachootin, Stan

    2011-04-23

    We have discovered unexpected similarities between a novel and characteristic wing organ in an extinct biting midge from Baltic amber, Eohelea petrunkevitchi, and the surface of a dipteran's compound eye. Scanning electron microscope images now reveal vestigial mechanoreceptors between the facets of the organ. We interpret Eohelea's wing organ as the blending of these two developmental systems: the formation and patterning of the cuticle in the eye and of the wing. Typically, only females in the genus carry this distinctive, highly organized structure. Two species were studied (E. petrunkevitchi and E. sinuosa), and the structure differs in form between them. We examine Eohelea's wing structures for modes of fabrication, material properties and biological functions, and the effective ecological environment in which these midges lived. We argue that the current view of the wing organ's function in stridulation has been misconstrued since it was described half a century ago.

  2. Beam Extinction Monitoring in the Mu2e Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prebys, Eric [Fermilab; Bartoszek, Larry [Technicare; Gaponenko, Andrei [Fermilab; Kasper, Peter [Fermilab

    2015-06-01

    The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a muon to an electron in the field of an atomic nucleus with unprecedented sensitivity. The experiment requires a beam consisting of proton bunches approximately 200ns FW long, separated by 1.7 microseconds, with no out-of-time protons at the 10⁻¹⁰ fractional level. The verification of this level of extinction is very challenging. The proposed technique uses a special purpose spectrometer which will observe particles scattered from the production target of the experiment. The acceptance will be limited such that there will be no saturation effects from the in-time beam. The precise level and profile of the out-of-time beam can then be built up statistically, by integrating over many bunches.

  3. MEST- avoid next extinction by a space-time effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Dayong

    2013-03-01

    Sun's companion-dark hole seasonal took its dark comets belt and much dark matter to impact near our earth. And some of them probability hit on our earth. So this model kept and triggered periodic mass extinctions on our earth every 25 to 27 million years. After every impaction, many dark comets with very special tilted orbits were arrested and lurked in solar system. When the dark hole-Tyche goes near the solar system again, they will impact near planets. The Tyche, dark comet and Oort Cloud have their space-time center. Because the space-time are frequency and amplitude square of wave. Because the wave (space-time) can make a field, and gas has more wave and fluctuate. So they like dense gas ball and a dark dense field. They can absorb the space-time and wave. So they are ``dark'' like the dark matter which can break genetic codes of our lives by a dark space-time effect. So the upcoming next impaction will cause current ``biodiversity loss.'' The dark matter can change dead plants and animals to coal, oil and natural gas which are used as energy, but break our living environment. According to our experiments, which consciousness can use thought waves remotely to change their systemic model between Electron Clouds and electron holes of P-N Junction and can change output voltages of solar cells by a life information technology and a space-time effect, we hope to find a new method to the orbit of the Tyche to avoid next extinction. (see Dayong Cao, BAPS.2011.APR.K1.17 and BAPS.2012.MAR.P33.14) Support by AEEA

  4. Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S

    2017-03-01

    Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

  5. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems on Online Electronic Gaming Machines, Race Betting and Sports Betting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex M; Browne, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Growth of Internet gambling has fuelled concerns about its contribution to gambling problems. However, most online gamblers also gamble on land-based forms, which may be the source of problems for some. Studies therefore need to identify the problematic mode of gambling (online or offline) to identify those with an online gambling problem. Identifying most problematic form of online gambling (e.g., EGMs, race betting, sports betting) would also enable a more accurate examination of gambling problems attributable to a specific online gambling form. This study pursued this approach, aiming to: (1) determine demographic, behavioral and psychological risk factors for gambling problems on online EGMs, online sports betting and online race betting; (2) compare the characteristics of problematic online gamblers on each of these online forms. An online survey of 4,594 Australian gamblers measured gambling behavior, most problematic mode and form of gambling, gambling attitudes, psychological distress, substance use, help-seeking, demographics and problem gambling status. Problem/moderate risk gamblers nominating an online mode of gambling as their most problematic, and identifying EGMs ( n = 98), race betting ( n = 291) or sports betting ( n = 181) as their most problematic gambling form, were compared to non-problem/low risk gamblers who had gambled online on these forms in the previous 12 months ( n = 64, 1145 and 1213 respectively), using bivariate analyses and then logistic regressions. Problem/moderate risk gamblers on each of these online forms were then compared. Risk factors for online EGM gambling were: more frequent play on online EGMs, substance use when gambling, and higher psychological distress. Risk factors for online sports betting were being male, younger, lower income, born outside of Australia, speaking a language other than English, more frequent sports betting, higher psychological distress, and more negative attitudes toward gambling. Risk factors for

  6. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems on Online Electronic Gaming Machines, Race Betting and Sports Betting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nerilee Hing

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Growth of Internet gambling has fuelled concerns about its contribution to gambling problems. However, most online gamblers also gamble on land-based forms, which may be the source of problems for some. Studies therefore need to identify the problematic mode of gambling (online or offline to identify those with an online gambling problem. Identifying most problematic form of online gambling (e.g., EGMs, race betting, sports betting would also enable a more accurate examination of gambling problems attributable to a specific online gambling form. This study pursued this approach, aiming to: (1 determine demographic, behavioral and psychological risk factors for gambling problems on online EGMs, online sports betting and online race betting; (2 compare the characteristics of problematic online gamblers on each of these online forms. An online survey of 4,594 Australian gamblers measured gambling behavior, most problematic mode and form of gambling, gambling attitudes, psychological distress, substance use, help-seeking, demographics and problem gambling status. Problem/moderate risk gamblers nominating an online mode of gambling as their most problematic, and identifying EGMs (n = 98, race betting (n = 291 or sports betting (n = 181 as their most problematic gambling form, were compared to non-problem/low risk gamblers who had gambled online on these forms in the previous 12 months (n = 64, 1145 and 1213 respectively, using bivariate analyses and then logistic regressions. Problem/moderate risk gamblers on each of these online forms were then compared. Risk factors for online EGM gambling were: more frequent play on online EGMs, substance use when gambling, and higher psychological distress. Risk factors for online sports betting were being male, younger, lower income, born outside of Australia, speaking a language other than English, more frequent sports betting, higher psychological distress, and more negative attitudes toward gambling. Risk

  7. Identifying risk factors for healthcare-associated infections from electronic medical record home address data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosenman Marc B

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Residential address is a common element in patient electronic medical records. Guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention specify that residence in a nursing home, skilled nursing facility, or hospice within a year prior to a positive culture date is among the criteria for differentiating healthcare-acquired from community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA infections. Residential addresses may be useful for identifying patients residing in healthcare-associated settings, but methods for categorizing residence type based on electronic medical records have not been widely documented. The aim of this study was to develop a process to assist in differentiating healthcare-associated from community-associated MRSA infections by analyzing patient addresses to determine if residence reported at the time of positive culture was associated with a healthcare facility or other institutional location. Results We identified 1,232 of the patients (8.24% of the sample with positive cultures as probable cases of healthcare-associated MRSA based on residential addresses contained in electronic medical records. Combining manual review with linking to institutional address databases improved geocoding rates from 11,870 records (79.37% to 12,549 records (83.91%. Standardization of patient home address through geocoding increased the number of matches to institutional facilities from 545 (3.64% to 1,379 (9.22%. Conclusions Linking patient home address data from electronic medical records to institutional residential databases provides useful information for epidemiologic researchers, infection control practitioners, and clinicians. This information, coupled with other clinical and laboratory data, can be used to inform differentiation of healthcare-acquired from community-acquired infections. The process presented should be extensible with little or no added data costs.

  8. Decline and local extinction of Fucales in French Riviera: the harbinger of future extinctions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. THIBAUT

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The French Riviera is one of the Mediterranean areas that has been longest and most thoroughly impacted by human activities. Fucales are long-lived, large-sized brown algae that constitute a good model for studying human impact on species diversity. We gathered all historical data (literature and herbarium vouchers, since the early 19th century, to reconstruct their distribution. The current distribution was established from a 7-year (2007-2013 survey of the 212-km shoreline (1/2 500 map, by means of boating, snorkelling and scuba diving. Overall, 18 taxa of Cystoseira and Sargassum have been reported. Upon comparison with historical data, 5 taxa were no longer observed (C. elegans, C. foeniculacea f. latiramosa, C. squarrosa, C. spinosa var. spinosa and S. hornschuchii while C. jabukae, previously unrecorded, was observed. In addition to these  taxa, probably extinct at a local scale, some taxa had suffered a dramatic decline (C. barbata f. barbata, C. crinita, C. spinosa var. compressa and S. acinarium or become nearly extinct (C. foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa. Three of them, which played in the past significant functional roles in coastal communities, can be considered as functionally extinct. Possible causes of decline and local extinction are discussed. A similar situation has already been reported, although at a much more local scale, in a variety of Mediterranean localities. The question therefore arises about the status of Fucales species in the Mediterranean: are some species on the brink of extinction? Is their extinction at the scale of the French Riviera the harbinger of their extinction Mediterranean–wide?

  9. Racial/ethnic differences in electronic cigarette knowledge, social norms, and risk perceptions among current and former smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb Hooper, Monica; Kolar, Stephanie K

    2017-04-01

    Psychosocial factors that may affect electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) initiation or maintenance among racial/ethnic minorities are not well-understood. This study examined racial/ethnic differences in e-cigarette knowledge, risk perceptions, and social norms among current and former smokers. Individuals with a tobacco smoking history and an awareness of e-cigarettes (N=285) were recruited from the community from June to August 2014. Telephone-administered surveys assessed demographics, smoking status, and e-cigarette knowledge, risk perceptions, and normative beliefs. Analyses of covariance and multinomial logistic regression tested associations by race/ethnicity. Controlling for sociodemographics and smoking status, White participants scored significantly higher on e-cigarette knowledge, compared to both Hispanics and African Americans/Blacks. Knowledge was lower among African Americans/Blacks compared to Hispanics. Compared to both Whites and Hispanics, African American/Black participants held lower perceptions regarding e-cigarette health risks and were less likely to view e-cigarettes as addictive. Normative beliefs did not differ by race/ethnicity. In conclusion, e-cigarette knowledge, health risk perceptions, and perceived addictiveness differed by race/ethnicity. The variation in e-cigarette knowledge and beliefs among smokers and former smokers has implications for use, and potentially, dual use. Understanding these relationships in unrepresented populations can inform future research and practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Reactivated Memories Compete for Expression After Pavlovian Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

    2012-01-01

    We view the response decrement resulting from extinction treatment as an interference effect, in which the reactivated memory from acquisition competes with the reactivated memory from extinction for behavioral expression. For each of these memories, reactivation is proportional to both the strength of the stimulus-outcome association and the quality of the facilitatory cues for that association which are present at test. Here we review basic extinction and recovery-from-extinction phenomena, showing how these effects are explicable in this associative interference framework. Moreover, this orientation has and continues to dictate efficient manipulations for minimizing recovery from extinction. This in turn suggests procedures that might reduce relapse from exposure therapy for a number of psychological disorders. Some of these manipulations enhance the facilitatory cues from extinction that are present at test, others strengthen the extinction association (i.e., CS-no outcome), and yet others seem to work by a combination of these two processes. PMID:22326812

  11. Running from fear: Exercise modulation of fear extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Margaret K; Hake, Holly S; Bouchet, Courtney A; Greenwood, Benjamin N

    2018-03-31

    Extinction-based exposure therapy is the most common behavioral therapy for anxiety and trauma-related disorders, but fear tends to resurface even after successful extinction. Identification of novel strategies to enhance fear extinction and reduce fear relapse is of paramount importance to mental health. Exercise can enhance cognitive function, but it is not yet well understood whether exercise can be an effective augmentation strategy for fear extinction. In the current review, we present the current state of knowledge on the effects of exercise on fear extinction. Effects of exercise duration, explanations for conflicting results, and potential mechanisms, focusing on a hypothesized role for dopamine, are all discussed. We also provide new data suggesting that the timing in which acute exercise occurs relative to fear extinction, is a crucial variable in determining whether exercise can enhance fear extinction. Clinical implications and ideas to guide future research endeavors in this area are provided. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A global synthesis of plant extinction rates in urban areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahs, Amy K; McDonnell, Mark J; McCarthy, Michael A; Vesk, Peter A; Corlett, Richard T; Norton, Briony A; Clemants, Steven E; Duncan, Richard P; Thompson, Ken; Schwartz, Mark W; Williams, Nicholas S G

    2009-11-01

    Plant extinctions from urban areas are a growing threat to biodiversity worldwide. To minimize this threat, it is critical to understand what factors are influencing plant extinction rates. We compiled plant extinction rate data for 22 cities around the world. Two-thirds of the variation in plant extinction rates was explained by a combination of the city's historical development and the current proportion of native vegetation, with the former explaining the greatest variability. As a single variable, the amount of native vegetation remaining also influenced extinction rates, particularly in cities > 200 years old. Our study demonstrates that the legacies of landscape transformations by agrarian and urban development last for hundreds of years, and modern cities potentially carry a large extinction debt. This finding highlights the importance of preserving native vegetation in urban areas and the need for mitigation to minimize potential plant extinctions in the future.

  13. Role of the hippocampus in contextual modulation of fear extinction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lingzhi Kong; Xihong Wu; Liang Li

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is an important form of emotional learning, and affects neural plasticity. Cue fear extinction is a classical form of inhibitory learning that can be used as an exposure-based treatment for phobia, because the long-term extinction memory produced during cue fear extinction can limit the over-expression of fear. The expression of this inhibitory memory partly depends on the context in which the extinction learning occurs. Studies such as transient inhibition, electrophysiology and brain imaging have proved that the hippocampus - an important structure in the limbic system - facilitates memory retrieval by contextual cues.Mediation of the hippocampus-medial prefrontal lobe circuit may be the neurobiological basis of this process.This article has reviewed the role of the hippocampus in the learning and retrieval of fear extinction.Contextual modulation of fear extinction may rely on a neural network consisting of the hippocampus, the medial prefrontal cortex and the amygdala.

  14. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  15. Extinction of corrugated hydrogen/air flames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizomoto, M.; Asaka, Y.; Ikai, S.; Law, C.K.

    1982-01-01

    Recent studies on flammability limits reveal the importance of flow nonuniformity, flame curvature, and molecular and thermal diffusivities in determining the extinguishability and the associated limits of premixed fuel/air flames. In particular, it is found that conditions which favor extinction of a lean flame may cause intensification of a rich flame. In the present study the authors have experimentally determined the extinction characteristics and limits of highly curved hydrogen/air flames as represented by the opening of bunsen flame tips. Results show that the tip opens at a constant fuel equivalence ratio of phi = 1.15, regardless of the velocity and uniformity of the upstream flow. This critical mixture concentration, while being rich, is still on the lean side of that corresponding to the maximum burning velocity (phi = 1.8), implying that for highly diffusive systems, the relevant reference concentration is that for maximum burning velocity instead of stoichiometry

  16. The galactic extinction towards Maffei 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buta, R.J.; McCall, M.L.; McDonald Observatory, Austin, TX; Australian National Univ., Canberra. Mount Stromlo and Siding Spring Observatories)

    1983-01-01

    The extinction of Maffei 1 has been measured by two new techniques. First, BV aperture photometry has been performed to obtain the colour excess from standard aperture-colour relations for early-type galaxies. Secondly, millimetre and radio observations of galactic CO and HI have been used to calculate the total hydrogen column density along the line-of-sight, and thereby estimate the colour excess from the local dust-to-gas ratio. After consideration of all extinction measurements to date, it is concluded that Asub(v)=5.1+-0.2 mag. The isophotal diameter and the corrected apparent visual magnitude are estimated to be approx. 15 arcmin and approx. 6.3 respectively (assuming type E), making Maffei 1 one of the biggest and brightest galaxies in the sky. (author)

  17. Development of an Electronic Medical Record Based Alert for Risk of HIV Treatment Failure in a Low-Resource Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puttkammer, Nancy; Zeliadt, Steven; Balan, Jean Gabriel; Baseman, Janet; Destiné, Rodney; Domerçant, Jean Wysler; France, Garilus; Hyppolite, Nathaelf; Pelletier, Valérie; Raphael, Nernst Atwood; Sherr, Kenneth; Yuhas, Krista; Barnhart, Scott

    2014-01-01

    Background The adoption of electronic medical record systems in resource-limited settings can help clinicians monitor patients' adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) and identify patients at risk of future ART failure, allowing resources to be targeted to those most at risk. Methods Among adult patients enrolled on ART from 2005–2013 at two large, public-sector hospitals in Haiti, ART failure was assessed after 6–12 months on treatment, based on the World Health Organization's immunologic and clinical criteria. We identified models for predicting ART failure based on ART adherence measures and other patient characteristics. We assessed performance of candidate models using area under the receiver operating curve, and validated results using a randomly-split data sample. The selected prediction model was used to generate a risk score, and its ability to differentiate ART failure risk over a 42-month follow-up period was tested using stratified Kaplan Meier survival curves. Results Among 923 patients with CD4 results available during the period 6–12 months after ART initiation, 196 (21.2%) met ART failure criteria. The pharmacy-based proportion of days covered (PDC) measure performed best among five possible ART adherence measures at predicting ART failure. Average PDC during the first 6 months on ART was 79.0% among cases of ART failure and 88.6% among cases of non-failure (pART initiation were added to PDC, the risk score differentiated between those who did and did not meet failure criteria over 42 months following ART initiation. Conclusions Pharmacy data are most useful for new ART adherence alerts within iSanté. Such alerts offer potential to help clinicians identify patients at high risk of ART failure so that they can be targeted with adherence support interventions, before ART failure occurs. PMID:25390044

  18. Development of an electronic medical record based alert for risk of HIV treatment failure in a low-resource setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Puttkammer

    Full Text Available The adoption of electronic medical record systems in resource-limited settings can help clinicians monitor patients' adherence to HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART and identify patients at risk of future ART failure, allowing resources to be targeted to those most at risk.Among adult patients enrolled on ART from 2005-2013 at two large, public-sector hospitals in Haiti, ART failure was assessed after 6-12 months on treatment, based on the World Health Organization's immunologic and clinical criteria. We identified models for predicting ART failure based on ART adherence measures and other patient characteristics. We assessed performance of candidate models using area under the receiver operating curve, and validated results using a randomly-split data sample. The selected prediction model was used to generate a risk score, and its ability to differentiate ART failure risk over a 42-month follow-up period was tested using stratified Kaplan Meier survival curves.Among 923 patients with CD4 results available during the period 6-12 months after ART initiation, 196 (21.2% met ART failure criteria. The pharmacy-based proportion of days covered (PDC measure performed best among five possible ART adherence measures at predicting ART failure. Average PDC during the first 6 months on ART was 79.0% among cases of ART failure and 88.6% among cases of non-failure (p<0.01. When additional information including sex, baseline CD4, and duration of enrollment in HIV care prior to ART initiation were added to PDC, the risk score differentiated between those who did and did not meet failure criteria over 42 months following ART initiation.Pharmacy data are most useful for new ART adherence alerts within iSanté. Such alerts offer potential to help clinicians identify patients at high risk of ART failure so that they can be targeted with adherence support interventions, before ART failure occurs.

  19. Health Risks Awareness of Electronic Waste Workers in the Informal Sector in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohajinwa, Chimere M; Van Bodegom, Peter M; Vijver, Martina G; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

    2017-08-13

    Insight into the health risk awareness levels of e-waste workers is important as it may offer opportunities for better e-waste recycling management strategies to reduce the health effects of informal e-waste recycling. Therefore, this study assessed the knowledge, attitude, and practices associated with occupational health risk awareness of e-waste workers compared with a control group (butchers) in the informal sector in Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was used to assess health risk awareness of 279 e-waste workers (repairers and dismantlers) and 221 butchers from the informal sector in three locations in Nigeria in 2015. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on socio-demographic backgrounds, occupational history, knowledge, attitude, and work practices. The data was analysed using Analysis of Variance. The three job designations had significantly different knowledge, attitude, and practice mean scores ( p = 0.000), with butchers consistently having the highest mean scores. Only 43% of e-waste workers could mention one or more Personal Protective Equipment needed for their job compared with 70% of the butchers. The health risk awareness level of the e-waste workers was significantly lower compared with their counterparts in the same informal sector. A positive correlation existed between the workers' knowledge and their attitude and practice. Therefore, increasing the workers' knowledge may decrease risky practices.

  20. Health Risks Awareness of Electronic Waste Workers in the Informal Sector in Nigeria.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ohajinwa, Chimere M; Van Bodegom, Peter M; Vijver, Martina G; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

    2017-01-01

    Insight into the health risk awareness levels of e-waste workers is important as it may offer opportunities for better e-waste recycling management strategies to reduce the health effects of informal e-waste recycling. Therefore, this study assessed the knowledge, attitude, and practices associated

  1. Immunological systematics of the extinct quagga (Equidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowenstein, J M; Ryder, O A

    1985-09-15

    It has been debated whether the extinct quagga was a distinct fourth species of African zebra or whether it was merely the southern variant of the Plains zebra (Equus burchelli). Using a radioimmunoassay (RIA) technique, we have shown that proteins remaining in quagga skins from museums are much more similar to serum proteins of the Plains zebra than to those of the other two extant zebras.

  2. Rewinding the process of mammalian extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Saragusty, J.; Diecke, S.; Drukker, M.; Durrant, B.; Friedrich Ben-Nun, I.; Galli, C.; Goeritz, F.; Hayashi, K.; Hermes, R.; Holtze, S.; Johnson, S.; Lazzari, G.; Loi, P.; Loring, J.F.; Okita, K.

    2016-01-01

    With only three living individuals left on this planet, the northern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) could be considered doomed for extinction. It might still be possible, however, to rescue the (sub)species by combining novel stem cell and assisted reproductive technologies. To discuss the various practical options available to us, we convened a multidisciplinary meeting under the name "Conservation by Cellular Technologies." The outcome of this meeting and the proposed road m...

  3. Opportunities and costs for preventing vertebrate extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, Dalia A; Colchero, Fernando; Güneralp, Burak; Gusset, Markus; Skolnik, Ben; Parr, Michael; Byers, Onnie; Johnson, Kevin; Young, Glyn; Flesness, Nate; Possingham, Hugh; Fa, John E

    2015-03-16

    Despite an increase in policy and management responses to the global biodiversity crisis, implementation of the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets still shows insufficient progress [1]. These targets, strategic goals defined by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), address major causes of biodiversity loss in part by establishing protected areas (Target 11) and preventing species extinctions (Target 12). To achieve this, increased interventions will be required for a large number of sites and species. The Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) [2], a consortium of conservation-oriented organisations that aims to protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species restricted to single sites, has identified 920 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, conifers and reef-building corals in 588 'trigger' sites [3]. These are arguably the most irreplaceable category of important biodiversity conservation sites. Protected area coverage of AZE sites is a key indicator of progress towards Target 11 [1]. Moreover, effective conservation of AZE sites is essential to achieve Target 12, as the loss of any of these sites would certainly result in the global extinction of at least one species [2]. However, averting human-induced species extinctions within AZE sites requires enhanced planning tools to increase the chances of success [3]. Here, we assess the potential for ensuring the long-term conservation of AZE vertebrate species (157 mammals, 165 birds, 17 reptiles and 502 amphibians) by calculating a conservation opportunity index (COI) for each species. The COI encompasses a set of measurable indicators that quantify the possibility of achieving successful conservation of a species in its natural habitat (COIh) and by establishing insurance populations in zoos (COIc). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Parrots and macaws: Species in extinction danger?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro ramirez, Jose; Moyano P, Edgar A

    1994-01-01

    The paper refers to the privileged position of Colombia due to their position in the tropic, the influence of two oceans, their wide hydrographic net, variety of climates, etc; they make that Colombia occupies first places in biodiversity; but due to the indiscriminate pruning of primary forest, they make that this enormous biological potential is seriously threatened, where many of its birds are in extinction road

  5. Pathways to extinction: beyond the error threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrubia, Susanna C; Domingo, Esteban; Lázaro, Ester

    2010-06-27

    Since the introduction of the quasispecies and the error catastrophe concepts for molecular evolution by Eigen and their subsequent application to viral populations, increased mutagenesis has become a common strategy to cause the extinction of viral infectivity. Nevertheless, the high complexity of virus populations has shown that viral extinction can occur through several other pathways apart from crossing an error threshold. Increases in the mutation rate enhance the appearance of defective forms and promote the selection of mechanisms that are able to counteract the accelerated appearance of mutations. Current models of viral evolution take into account more realistic scenarios that consider compensatory and lethal mutations, a highly redundant genotype-to-phenotype map, rough fitness landscapes relating phenotype and fitness, and where phenotype is described as a set of interdependent traits. Further, viral populations cannot be understood without specifying the characteristics of the environment where they evolve and adapt. Altogether, it turns out that the pathways through which viral quasispecies go extinct are multiple and diverse.

  6. Interstellar Extinction in 20 Open Star Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangwal, Geeta; Yadav, R. K. S.; Durgapal, Alok K.; Bisht, D.

    2017-12-01

    The interstellar extinction law in 20 open star clusters namely, Berkeley 7, Collinder 69, Hogg 10, NGC 2362, Czernik 43, NGC 6530, NGC 6871, Bochum 10, Haffner 18, IC 4996, NGC 2384, NGC 6193, NGC 6618, NGC 7160, Collinder 232, Haffner 19, NGC 2401, NGC 6231, NGC 6823, and NGC 7380 have been studied in the optical and near-IR wavelength ranges. The difference between maximum and minimum values of E(B - V) indicates the presence of non-uniform extinction in all the clusters except Collinder 69, NGC 2362, and NGC 2384. The colour excess ratios are consistent with a normal extinction law for the clusters NGC 6823, Haffner 18, Haffner 19, NGC 7160, NGC 6193, NGC 2401, NGC 2384, NGC 6871, NGC 7380, Berkeley 7, Collinder 69, and IC 4996. We have found that the differential colour-excess ΔE(B - V), which may be due to the occurrence of dust and gas inside the clusters, decreases with the age of the clusters. A spatial variation of colour excess is found in NGC 6193 in the sense that it decreases from east to west in the cluster region. For the clusters Berkeley 7, NGC 7380, and NGC 6871, a dependence of colour excess E(B - V) with spectral class and luminosity is observed. Eight stars in Collinder 232, four stars in NGC 6530, and one star in NGC 6231 have excess flux in near-IR. This indicates that these stars may have circumstellar material around them.

  7. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  8. Permo-Triassic vertebrate extinctions: A program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, E. C.

    1988-01-01

    Since the time of the Authors' study on this subject, a great deal of new information has become available. Concepts of the nature of extinctions have changed materially. The Authors' conclusion that a catastrophic event was not responsible for the extinction of vertebrates has modified to the extent that hypotheses involving either the impact of a massive extra-terrestrial body or volcanism provide plausible but not currently fully testable hypotheses. Stated changes resulted in a rapid decrease in organic diversity, as the ratio of origins of taxa to extinctions shifted from strongly positive to negative, with momentary equilibrium being reached at about the Permo-Triassic boundary. The proximate causes of the changes in the terrestrial biota appear to lie in two primary factors: (1) strong climatic changes (global mean temperatures, temperature ranges, humidity) and (2) susceptibility of the dominant vertebrates (large dicynodonts) and the glossopteris flora to disruption of the equlibrium of the world ecosystem. The following proximate causes have been proposed: (1) rhythmic fluctuations in solar radiation, (2) tectonic events as Pangea assembled, altering land-ocean relationships, patterns of wind and water circulation and continental physiography, (3) volcanism, and (4) changes subsequent to impacts of one or more massive extra terrestrial objects, bodies or comets. These hypotheses are discussed.

  9. Rewinding the process of mammalian extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saragusty, Joseph; Diecke, Sebastian; Drukker, Micha; Durrant, Barbara; Friedrich Ben-Nun, Inbar; Galli, Cesare; Göritz, Frank; Hayashi, Katsuhiko; Hermes, Robert; Holtze, Susanne; Johnson, Stacey; Lazzari, Giovanna; Loi, Pasqualino; Loring, Jeanne F; Okita, Keisuke; Renfree, Marilyn B; Seet, Steven; Voracek, Thomas; Stejskal, Jan; Ryder, Oliver A; Hildebrandt, Thomas B

    2016-07-01

    With only three living individuals left on this planet, the northern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) could be considered doomed for extinction. It might still be possible, however, to rescue the (sub)species by combining novel stem cell and assisted reproductive technologies. To discuss the various practical options available to us, we convened a multidisciplinary meeting under the name "Conservation by Cellular Technologies." The outcome of this meeting and the proposed road map that, if successfully implemented, would ultimately lead to a self-sustaining population of an extremely endangered species are outlined here. The ideas discussed here, while centered on the northern white rhinoceros, are equally applicable, after proper adjustments, to other mammals on the brink of extinction. Through implementation of these ideas we hope to establish the foundation for reversal of some of the effects of what has been termed the sixth mass extinction event in the history of Earth, and the first anthropogenic one. Zoo Biol. 35:280-292, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. Zoo Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Zoo Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Causes and timing of future biosphere extinctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Franck

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the combined ocean and atmosphere reservoir. The model is specified by introducing three different types of biosphere: procaryotes, eucaryotes, and complex multicellular life. During the entire existence of the biosphere procaryotes are always present. 2 Gyr ago eucaryotic life first appears. The emergence of complex multicellular life is connected with an explosive increase in biomass and a strong decrease in Cambrian global surface temperature at about 0.54 Gyr ago. In the long-term future the three types of biosphere will die out in reverse sequence of their appearance. We show that there is no evidence for an implosion-like extinction in contrast to the Cambrian explosion. In dependence of their temperature tolerance complex multicellular life and eucaryotes become extinct in about 0.8–1.2 Gyr and 1.3–1.5 Gyr, respectively. The ultimate life span of the biosphere is defined by the extinction of procaryotes in about 1.6 Gyr.

  11. Interstellar extinction and polarization in the infrared

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, P.G.; Whittet, D.C.B.

    1990-01-01

    The wavelength dependences of interstellar continuum extinction and polarization in the range 0.35-5 microns are examined. The existence of a universal extinction curve with power law index of about 1.8 extending from the near-IR to at least 5 microns appears to be established for both diffuse and dense cloud dust. The polarization yields evidence for some degree of universality in the 1.6-5 micron regime which may be represented by a power law with index 1.5-2.0, encompassing that for extinction. The form of the polarization curve in the IR seems independent of the wavelength at which the degree of polarization peaks in the optical, implying that variations in that wavelength are caused by changes in the optical properties of the particle at blue-visible rather than IR wavelengths. It is argued that the more significant alterations of the grain size distribution from one environment to another occur for the smaller particles. 47 refs

  12. AN ANALYSIS OF THE SHAPES OF INTERSTELLAR EXTINCTION CURVES. VI. THE NEAR-IR EXTINCTION LAW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzpatrick, E. L.; Massa, D.

    2009-01-01

    We combine new observations from the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera of Survey with existing data to investigate the wavelength dependence of near-IR (NIR) extinction. Previous studies suggest a power law form for NIR extinction, with a 'universal' value of the exponent, although some recent observations indicate that significant sight line-to-sight line variability may exist. We show that a power-law model for the NIR extinction provides an excellent fit to most extinction curves, but that the value of the power, β, varies significantly from sight line to sight line. Therefore, it seems that a 'universal NIR extinction law' is not possible. Instead, we find that as β decreases, R(V) ≡ A(V)/E(B - V) tends to increase, suggesting that NIR extinction curves which have been considered 'peculiar' may, in fact, be typical for different R(V) values. We show that the power-law parameters can depend on the wavelength interval used to derive them, with the β increasing as longer wavelengths are included. This result implies that extrapolating power-law fits to determine R(V) is unreliable. To avoid this problem, we adopt a different functional form for NIR extinction. This new form mimics a power law whose exponent increases with wavelength, has only two free parameters, can fit all of our curves over a longer wavelength baseline and to higher precision, and produces R(V) values which are consistent with independent estimates and commonly used methods for estimating R(V). Furthermore, unlike the power-law model, it gives R(V)s that are independent of the wavelength interval used to derive them. It also suggests that the relation R(V) = -1.36 E(K-V)/(E(B-V)) - 0.79 can estimate R(V) to ±0.12. Finally, we use model extinction curves to show that our extinction curves are in accord with theoretical expectations, and demonstrate how large samples of observational quantities can provide useful constraints on the grain properties.

  13. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  14. Extinction of Chained Instrumental Behaviors: Effects of Procurement Extinction on Consumption Responding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrailkill, Eric A.; Bouton, Mark E.

    2015-01-01

    Instrumental behavior often consists of sequences or chains of responses that minimally include procurement behaviors that enable subsequent consumption behaviors. In such chains, behavioral units are linked by access to one another and eventually to a primary reinforcer, such as food or a drug. The present experiments examined the effects of extinguishing procurement responding on consumption responding after training of a discriminated heterogeneous instrumental chain. Rats learned to make a procurement response (e.g., pressing a lever) in the presence of a distinctive discriminative stimulus; making that response led to the presentation of a second discriminative stimulus that set the occasion for a consumption response (e.g., pulling a chain), which then produced a food-pellet reinforcer. Experiment 1 showed that extinction of either the full procurement-consumption chain or procurement alone weakened the consumption response tested in isolation. Experiment 2 replicated the procurement extinction effect and further demonstrated that the opportunity to make the procurement response, as opposed to simple exposure to the procurement stimulus alone, was required. In Experiment 3, rats learned 2 distinct discriminated heterogeneous chains; extinction of 1 procurement response specifically weakened the consumption response that had been associated with it. The results suggest that learning to inhibit the procurement response may produce extinction of consumption responding through mediated extinction. The experiments suggest the importance of an associative analysis of instrumental behavior chains. PMID:25915751

  15. Risk prediction for chronic kidney disease progression using heterogeneous electronic health record data and time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotte, Adler; Ranganath, Rajesh; Hirsch, Jamie S; Blei, David; Elhadad, Noémie

    2015-07-01

    As adoption of electronic health records continues to increase, there is an opportunity to incorporate clinical documentation as well as laboratory values and demographics into risk prediction modeling. The authors develop a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression from stage III to stage IV that includes longitudinal data and features drawn from clinical documentation. The study cohort consisted of 2908 primary-care clinic patients who had at least three visits prior to January 1, 2013 and developed CKD stage III during their documented history. Development and validation cohorts were randomly selected from this cohort and the study datasets included longitudinal inpatient and outpatient data from these populations. Time series analysis (Kalman filter) and survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards) were combined to produce a range of risk models. These models were evaluated using concordance, a discriminatory statistic. A risk model incorporating longitudinal data on clinical documentation and laboratory test results (concordance 0.849) predicts progression from state III CKD to stage IV CKD more accurately when compared to a similar model without laboratory test results (concordance 0.733, P<.001), a model that only considers the most recent laboratory test results (concordance 0.819, P < .031) and a model based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (concordance 0.779, P < .001). A risk prediction model that takes longitudinal laboratory test results and clinical documentation into consideration can predict CKD progression from stage III to stage IV more accurately than three models that do not take all of these variables into consideration. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  16. Stress during puberty boosts metabolic activation associated with fear-extinction learning in hippocampus, basal amygdala and cingulate cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Rodriguez, Maria; Pitiot, Alain; Paus, Tomáš; Sandi, Carmen

    2012-07-01

    Adolescence is characterized by major developmental changes that may render the individual vulnerable to stress and the development of psychopathologies in a sex-specific manner. Earlier we reported lower anxiety-like behavior and higher risk-taking and novelty seeking in rats previously exposed to peri-pubertal stress. Here we studied whether peri-pubertal stress affected the acquisition and extinction of fear memories and/or the associated functional engagement of various brain regions, as assessed with 2-deoxyglucose. We showed that while peri-pubertal stress reduced freezing during the acquisition of fear memories (training) in both sexes, it had a sex-specific effect on extinction of these memories. Moreover hippocampus, basal amygdala and cingulate and motor cortices showed higher metabolic rates during extinction in rats exposed to peri-pubertal stress. Interestingly, activation of the infralimbic cortex was negatively correlated with freezing during extinction only in control males, while only males stressed during puberty showed a significant correlation between behavior during extinction and metabolic activation of hippocampus, amygdala and paraventricular nucleus. No correlations between brain activation and behavior during extinction were observed in females (control or stress). These results indicate that exposure to peri-pubertal stress affects behavior and brain metabolism when the individual is exposed to an additional stressful challenge. Some of these effects are sex-specific. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. One extinct turtle species less: Pelusios seychellensis is not extinct, it never existed.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heiko Stuckas

    Full Text Available Pelusios seychellensis is thought to be a freshwater turtle species endemic to the island of Mahé, Seychelles. There are only three museum specimens from the late 19(th century known. The species has been never found again, despite intensive searches on Mahé. Therefore, P. seychellensis has been declared as "Extinct" by the IUCN and is the sole putatively extinct freshwater turtle species. Using DNA sequences of three mitochondrial genes of the historical type specimen and phylogenetic analyses including all other species of the genus, we provide evidence that the description of P. seychellensis was erroneously based on a widely distributed West African species, P. castaneus. Consequently, we synonymize the two species and delete P. seychellensis from the list of extinct chelonian species and from the faunal list of the Seychelles.

  18. Pre-adolescent and adolescent mice are less sensitive to the effects of acute nicotine on extinction and spontaneous recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutlu, Munir Gunes; Zeid, Dana; Tumolo, Jessica M; Gould, Thomas J

    2018-04-01

    Adolescence is a period of high risk for the initiation of nicotine product usage and exposure to traumatic events. In parallel, nicotine exposure has been found to age-dependently modulate acquisition of contextual fear memories; however, it is unknown if adolescent nicotine exposure alters extinction of fear related memories. Age-related differences in sensitivity to the effects of nicotine on fear extinction could increase or decrease susceptibility to anxiety disorders. In this study, we examined the effects of acute nicotine administration on extinction and spontaneous recovery of contextual fear memories in pre-adolescent (PND 23), late adolescent (PND 38), and adult (PND 53) C57B6/J mice. Mice were first trained in a background contextual fear conditioning paradigm and given an intraperitoneal injection of one of four doses of nicotine (0.045, 0.09, 0.18, or 0.36mg/kg, freebase) prior to subsequent extinction or spontaneous recovery sessions. Results indicated that all acute nicotine doses impaired extinction of contextual fear in adult mice. Late adolescent mice exhibited impaired extinction of contextual fear only following higher doses of acute nicotine, and extinction of contextual fear was unaffected by acute nicotine exposure in pre-adolescent mice. Finally, acute nicotine exposure enhanced spontaneous recovery of fear memory, but only in adult mice. Overall, our results suggest that younger mice were less sensitive to nicotine's impairing effects on extinction of contextual fear and to nicotine's enhancing effects on spontaneous recovery of contextual fear memory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A window of vulnerability: impaired fear extinction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kathryn D; Den, Miriam L; Graham, Bronwyn M; Richardson, Rick

    2014-09-01

    There have been significant advances made towards understanding the processes mediating extinction of learned fear. However, despite being of clear theoretical and clinical significance, very few studies have examined fear extinction in adolescence, which is often described as a developmental window of vulnerability to psychological disorders. This paper reviews the relatively small body of research examining fear extinction in adolescence. A prominent finding of this work is that adolescents, both humans and rodents, exhibit a marked impairment in extinction relative to both younger (e.g., juvenile) and older (e.g., adult) groups. We then review some potential mechanisms that could produce the striking extinction deficit observed in adolescence. For example, one neurobiological candidate mechanism for impaired extinction in adolescence involves changes in the functional connectivity within the fear extinction circuit, particularly between prefrontal cortical regions and the amygdala. In addition, we review research on emotion regulation and attention processes that suggests that developmental changes in attention bias to threatening cues may be a cognitive mechanism that mediates age-related differences in extinction learning. We also examine how a differential reaction to chronic stress in adolescence impacts upon extinction retention during adolescence as well as in later life. Finally, we consider the findings of several studies illustrating promising approaches that overcome the typically-observed extinction impairments in adolescent rodents and that could be translated to human adolescents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Cortisol modifies extinction learning of recently acquired fear in men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Andrea; Stark, Rudolf; Wolf, Oliver Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Exposure therapy builds on the mechanism of fear extinction leading to decreased fear responses. How the stress hormone cortisol affects brain regions involved in fear extinction in humans is unknown. For this reason, we tested 32 men randomly assigned to receive either 30 mg hydrocortisone or placebo 45 min before fear extinction. In fear acquisition, a picture of a geometrical figure was either partially paired (conditioned stimulus; CS+) or not paired (CS−) with an electrical stimulation (unconditioned stimulus; UCS). In fear extinction, each CS was presented again, but no UCS occurred. Cortisol increased conditioned skin conductance responses in early and late extinction. In early extinction, higher activation towards the CS− than to the CS+ was found in the amygdala, hippocampus and posterior parahippocampal gyrus. This pattern might be associated with the establishment of a new memory trace. In late extinction, the placebo compared with the cortisol group displayed enhanced CS+/CS− differentiation in the amygdala, medial frontal cortex and nucleus accumbens. A change from early deactivation to late activation of the extinction circuit as seen in the placebo group seems to be needed to enhance extinction and to reduce fear. Cortisol appears to interfere with this process thereby impairing extinction of recently acquired conditioned fear. PMID:23945999

  1. Ocean Acidification: Adaptive Challenge or Extinction Threat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, K.

    2012-12-01

    these small scale experiments the potential for adaptation in ecological or evolutionary time. The current evidence points to ocean acidification being catastrophic for at least some organisms and ecosystems (e.g., possibly coral reefs) and likely to lead to the extinction of at least some species. On the other hand, for many organisms and ecosystems (e.g., perhaps some open ocean fish-dominated ecosystems), ocean acidification may represent little more than a minor adaptive challenge. Science can help us to understand the risks, even if some central questions will of necessity remain unanswered. Hopefully, CO2 emissions will be curtailed, and we will never find out which of the more pessimistic or more optimistic projections were correct.

  2. Candesartan ameliorates impaired fear extinction induced by innate immune activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiñones, María M; Maldonado, Lizette; Velazquez, Bethzaly; Porter, James T

    2016-02-01

    Patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to show signs of a relatively increased inflammatory state suggesting that activation of the immune system may contribute to the development of PTSD. In the present study, we tested whether activation of the innate immune system can disrupt acquisition or recall of auditory fear extinction using an animal model of PTSD. Male adolescent rats received auditory fear conditioning in context A. The next day, an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100 μg/kg) prior to auditory fear extinction in context B impaired acquisition and recall of extinction. LPS (100 μg/kg) given after extinction training did not impair extinction recall suggesting that LPS did not affect consolidation of extinction. In contrast to cued fear extinction, contextual fear extinction was not affected by prior injection of LPS (100 μg/kg). Although LPS also reduced locomotion, we could dissociate the effects of LPS on extinction and locomotion by using a lower dose of LPS (50 μg/kg) which impaired locomotion without affecting extinction. In addition, 15 h after an injection of 250 μg/kg LPS in adult rats, extinction learning and recall were impaired without affecting locomotion. A sub-chronic treatment with candesartan, an angiotensin II type 1 receptor blocker, prevented the LPS-induced impairment of extinction in adult rats. Our results demonstrate that activation of the innate immune system can disrupt auditory fear extinction in adolescent and adult animals. These findings also provide direction for clinical studies of novel treatments that modulate the innate immune system for stress-related disorders like PTSD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Physicians' acceptance of electronic medical records exchange: an extension of the decomposed TPB model with institutional trust and perceived risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Pi-Jung

    2015-01-01

    Electronic medical records (EMRs) exchange improves clinical quality and reduces medical costs. However, few studies address the antecedent factors of physicians' intentions to use EMR exchange. Based on institutional trust and perceived risk integrated with the decomposed theory of planned behavior (TPB) model, we propose a theoretical model to explain the intention of physicians to use an EMR exchange system. We conducted a field survey in Taiwan to collect data from physicians who had experience using the EMR exchange systems. A valid sample of 191 responses was collected for data analysis. To test the proposed research model, we employed structural equation modeling using the partial least squares method. The study findings show that the following five factors have a significant influence on the physicians' intentions to use EMR exchange systems: (a) attitude; (b) subjective norm; (c) perceived behavior control; (d) institutional trust; and (e) perceived risk. These five factors are predictable by perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and compatibility, interpersonal and governmental influence, facilitating conditions and self-efficacy, situational normality and structural assurance, and institutional trust, respectively. The results also indicate that institutional trust and perceived risk integrated with the decomposed TPB model improve the prediction of physician's intentions to use EMR exchange. The results of this study indicate that our research model effectively predicts the intention of physicians to use EMR exchange, and provides valuable implications for academics and practitioners. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pourmahabadian

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The strain index (SI is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The aim of this study was to assess and analyze risk of developing DUE disorders in different jobs as well as hazard classification in an assembling electronic industry through SI method. Also, DUE disorders prevalence, work-related absenteeism and turnover extracted from SI results were compared and assessed by those obtained by Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire (NMQ. The findings of this study showed that more than 50% of investigated jobs are categorized as "hazardous" and there is a significant difference between SI mean in hazardous and safe jobs (P < 0.0001. In addition, significant difference was found between prevalence of DUE disorders in "safe" and "hazardous" jobs (P < 0.049. But, no significant difference (P = 0.3 was obtained between mean absenteeism in "safe" and hazardous jobs. Also, no significant difference statistically was found between turnover in "safe" and hazardous jobs (X2 = 0.133, P = 1 and high prevalence of DUE disorders is due to low turnover rate of workers.

  5. Mass extinction efficiency and extinction hygroscopicity of ambient PM2.5 in urban China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Zhen; Ma, Xin; He, Yujie; Jiang, Jingkun; Wang, Xiaoliang; Wang, Yungang; Sheng, Li; Hu, Jiangkai; Yan, Naiqiang

    2017-07-01

    The ambient PM 2.5 pollution problem in China has drawn substantial international attentions. The mass extinction efficiency (MEE) and hygroscopicity factor (f(RH)) of PM 2.5 can be readily applied to study the impacts on atmospheric visibility and climate. The few previous investigations in China only reported results from pilot studies and are lack of spatial representativeness. In this study, hourly average ambient PM 2.5 mass concentration, relative humidity, and atmospheric visibility data from China national air quality and meteorological monitoring networks were retrieved and analyzed. It includes 24 major Chinese cities from nine city-clusters with the period of October 2013 to September 2014. Annual average extinction coefficient in urban China was 759.3±258.3Mm -1 , mainly caused by dry PM 2.5 (305.8.2±131.0Mm -1 ) and its hygroscopicity (414.6±188.1Mm -1 ). High extinction coefficient values were resulted from both high ambient PM 2.5 concentration (68.5±21.7µg/m 3 ) and high relative humidity (69.7±8.6%). The PM 2.5 mass extinction efficiency varied from 2.87 to 6.64m 2 /g with an average of 4.40±0.84m 2 /g. The average extinction hygroscopic factor f(RH=80%) was 2.63±0.45. The levels of PM 2.5 mass extinction efficiency and hygroscopic factor in China were in comparable range with those found in developed countries in spite of the significant diversities among all 24 cities. Our findings help to establish quantitative relationship between ambient extinction coefficient (visual range) and PM 2.5 & relative humidity. It will reduce the uncertainty of extinction coefficient estimation of ambient PM 2.5 in urban China which is essential for the research of haze pollution and climate radiative forcing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  7. Cognitive risk factors of electronic and combustible cigarette use in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, William V; Murphy, Cara M; Colby, Suzanne M; Janssen, Tim; Rogers, Michelle L; Jackson, Kristina M

    2018-07-01

    Cognitive susceptibility to cigarette smoking has been demonstrated to predict future cigarette initiation in adolescents. Examining this construct prior to tobacco product initiation may provide useful information on the differential risk of individuals initiating cigarette vs. e-cigarette products. Additionally, examining how susceptibility and tobacco product use relate to perceived harm cognitions will increase understanding of risk predisposition among adolescents. Data were taken from a longitudinal study of middle school students (n = 1023; age = 12.1, 52.2% female, 72.1% white) in the Northeastern U.S. Likelihood of e-cigarette and cigarette ever-use in high school was examined as a function of a validated index of cigarette smoking susceptibility among tobacco naïve students in middle school. Prospective associations between cognitive susceptibility to smoking and subsequent perceived harm of e-cigarettes (assessed in high school), and cross-sectional associations between concurrent tobacco product ever-use status and perceived harm of e-cigarettes were examined. Adolescents classified as susceptible to cigarette smoking in middle school were more likely to initiate use of cigarettes (OR = 2.53) and e-cigarettes (OR = 1.95) as compared to adolescents classified as non-susceptible; cigarette smoking susceptibility did not differentially predict use of one product over the other. Adolescents endorsing e-cigarette use, reported significantly less perceived harm associated with e-cigarettes vs. cigarettes, while those who endorsed cigarette only or dual use did not. Our data indicate that cognitive susceptibility to cigarette smoking may index a broad risk factor for using either cigarettes or e-cigarettes in the future, and is prospectively associated with perceived harm of e-cigarette use. Overall, those who used any tobacco product perceived e-cigarettes as less harmful when compared to abstainers. Individual facets of perceived harm

  8. Worldviews and trust of sources for health information on electronic nicotine delivery systems: Effects on risk perceptions and use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott R. Weaver

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Public health agencies, the news media, and the tobacco/vapor industry have issued contradictory statements about the health effects of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS. We investigated the levels of trust that consumers place in different information sources and how trust is associated with cultural worldviews, risk perceptions, ENDS use, and sociodemographic characteristics using a nationally representative sample of 6051 U.S. adults in 2015. Seventeen percent of adults were uncertain about their trust for one or more potential sources. Among the rest, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, health experts, and the Food & Drug Administration (FDA elicited the highest levels of trust. In contrast, tobacco and vapor manufacturers, vape shop employees, and, to a lesser extent, the news media were distrusted. Adults who had higher incomes and more education or espoused egalitarian and communitarian worldviews expressed more trust in health sources and the FDA, whereas those identifying as non-Hispanic Black or multiracial reported less trust. Current smokers, those who identified as non-Hispanic Black or other race, had lower incomes, and espoused hierarchy and individualism worldviews expressed less distrust toward the tobacco and vapor industry. Greater trust (or less distrust toward the tobacco and vapor industry and an individualism worldview were associated with perceptions of lower risk of premature death from daily ENDS use, greater uncertainty about those risks, and greater odds of using ENDS. Public health and the FDA should consider consumer trust and worldviews in the design and regulation of public education campaigns regarding the potential health risks and benefits of ENDS.

  9. Worldviews and trust of sources for health information on electronic nicotine delivery systems: Effects on risk perceptions and use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Scott R; Jazwa, Amelia; Popova, Lucy; Slovic, Paul; Rothenberg, Richard B; Eriksen, Michael P

    2017-12-01

    Public health agencies, the news media, and the tobacco/vapor industry have issued contradictory statements about the health effects of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). We investigated the levels of trust that consumers place in different information sources and how trust is associated with cultural worldviews, risk perceptions, ENDS use, and sociodemographic characteristics using a nationally representative sample of 6051 U.S. adults in 2015. Seventeen percent of adults were uncertain about their trust for one or more potential sources. Among the rest, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), health experts, and the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) elicited the highest levels of trust. In contrast, tobacco and vapor manufacturers, vape shop employees, and, to a lesser extent, the news media were distrusted. Adults who had higher incomes and more education or espoused egalitarian and communitarian worldviews expressed more trust in health sources and the FDA, whereas those identifying as non-Hispanic Black or multiracial reported less trust. Current smokers, those who identified as non-Hispanic Black or other race, had lower incomes, and espoused hierarchy and individualism worldviews expressed less distrust toward the tobacco and vapor industry. Greater trust (or less distrust) toward the tobacco and vapor industry and an individualism worldview were associated with perceptions of lower risk of premature death from daily ENDS use, greater uncertainty about those risks, and greater odds of using ENDS. Public health and the FDA should consider consumer trust and worldviews in the design and regulation of public education campaigns regarding the potential health risks and benefits of ENDS.

  10. Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; McCauley, Douglas J

    2016-09-16

    To better predict the ecological and evolutionary effects of the emerging biodiversity crisis in the modern oceans, we compared the association between extinction threat and ecological traits in modern marine animals to associations observed during past extinction events using a database of 2497 marine vertebrate and mollusc genera. We find that extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa. Pelagic animals were victimized more than benthic animals during previous mass extinctions but are not preferentially threatened in the modern ocean. The differential importance of large-bodied animals to ecosystem function portends greater future ecological disruption than that caused by similar levels of taxonomic loss in past mass extinction events. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Aging accelerates memory extinction and impairs memory restoration in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nannan; Guo, Aike; Li, Yan

    2015-05-15

    Age-related memory impairment (AMI) is a phenomenon observed from invertebrates to human. Memory extinction is proposed to be an active inhibitory modification of memory, however, whether extinction is affected in aging animals remains to be elucidated. Employing a modified paradigm for studying memory extinction in fruit flies, we found that only the stable, but not the labile memory component was suppressed by extinction, thus effectively resulting in higher memory loss in aging flies. Strikingly, young flies were able to fully restore the stable memory component 3 h post extinction, while aging flies failed to do so. In conclusion, our findings reveal that both accelerated extinction and impaired restoration contribute to memory impairment in aging animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Noradrenergic Modulation of Fear Conditioning and Extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giustino, Thomas F; Maren, Stephen

    2018-01-01

    The locus coeruleus norepinephrine (LC-NE) system plays a broad role in learning and memory. Here we begin with an overview of the LC-NE system. We then consider how both direct and indirect manipulations of the LC-NE system affect cued and contextual aversive learning and memory. We propose that NE dynamically modulates Pavlovian conditioning and extinction, either promoting or impairing learning aversive processes under different levels of behavioral arousal. We suggest that under high levels of stress (e.g., during/soon after fear conditioning) the locus coeruleus (LC) promotes cued fear learning by enhancing amygdala function while simultaneously blunting prefrontal function. Under low levels of arousal, the LC promotes PFC function to promote downstream inhibition of the amygdala and foster the extinction of cued fear. Thus, LC-NE action on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) might be described by an inverted-U function such that it can either enhance or hinder learning depending on arousal states. In addition, LC-NE seems to be particularly important for the acquisition, consolidation and extinction of contextual fear memories. This may be due to dense adrenoceptor expression in the hippocampus (HPC) which encodes contextual information, and the ability of NE to regulate long-term potentiation (LTP). Moreover, recent work reveals that the diversity of LC-NE functions in aversive learning and memory are mediated by functionally heterogeneous populations of LC neurons that are defined by their projection targets. Hence, LC-NE function in learning and memory is determined by projection-specific neuromodulation that accompanies various states of behavioral arousal.

  13. Late Pennsylvanian climate changes and palynomorph extinctions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kosanke, R.M.; Cecil, C.B. [US Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States)

    1996-01-01

    A major floral change occurs in the Upper Pennsylvanian strata in the Midcontinent, Illinois basin, and in the northern Appalachian basin of eastern United States. Lycospora spp. (derived from arborescent lycopsids) became extinct along with some other palynomorph taxa. This investigation is concerned with the importance of this major floral change. Samples were studied from western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and West Virgina (from a previous study) cover the stratigraphic interval from the Upper Freeport coal bed, uppermost part of the Allegheny Formation, to the Mahoning, Mason, Brush Creek, Wilgus, and Anderson coal beds in the lower part of the Conemaugh Formation. The floral change occurs either at or below the accepted Desmoinesian-Missourian boundary in the Midcontinent and Illinois basin, whereas in the northern Appalachians this change occurs in the lower part of the Conemaugh Formation, between the Mahoning and Brush Creek coal beds, or when the Mason is present, between the Mahoning and Mason coal beds. The first coal bed above the extinction of Lycospora spp. is dominated by the palynomorph taxon Endosporites globiformis which is derived from a heterosporous, herbaceous lycopsid. However, Sigillaria, another arborescent lycopsid, did not become extinct at this time as evidenced by the presence of the palynomorph genus Crassispora which is derived from Sigillaria. The reason for the survival of Sigillaria is now known, but it may have been able to adapt, in a limited fashion, to some sort of specialized microenvironment. The ferns, based on palynomorph occurrence, become numerically more important throughout the balance of the Conemaugh Formation, and dominate the Pittsburgh No. 8 and Pomeroy coal beds in the overlying Monogahela Formation.

  14. Fire extinction utilizing carbon dioxide hydrate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hatakeyama, T.; Aida, E.; Yokomori, T.; Ohmura, R.; Ueda, T. [Keio Univ., Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama (Japan)

    2008-07-01

    Clathrate hydrates formed with nonflammable gases may be suitable for use as fire extinguishing agents because dissociation of the hydrates results in the temperature decrease in the combustion field and the nonflammable gases released from the dissociated hydrates prevent the supply of the oxygen to the combustion field. This paper discussed experiments in which ordinary ice and dry ice were used to evaluate the performance of CO{sub 2} hydrate as a fire extinguishing agent. The paper described the apparatus and procedure for the preparation of CO{sub 2} hydrate crystals. A schematic of the reactor to form CO{sub 2} hydrate and a photograph of CO{sub 2} hydrate crystal formed in the study were also presented. Other illustrations, photographs, and tables that were presented included a schematic diagram of the experimental apparatus used for the flame extinction experiments; a photograph of CO{sub 2} hydrate powder; sequential video graphs of the flame extinction by the supply of CO{sub 2} hydrate crystals to the methanol pool flame and the relevant illustration; and heat of CO{sub 2} hydrate dissociation, water vaporization and sublimation of dry ice. It was concluded that the critical mass of the CO{sub 2} hydrate required to extinguish a flame was much less than that of ordinary ice, indicating the superiority of CO{sub 2} hydrate to the ice. In addition, the experiments also revealed that the size of the CO{sub 2} hydrate particles had a significant effect on the performance of flame extinction. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs.

  15. Noradrenergic Modulation of Fear Conditioning and Extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas F. Giustino

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The locus coeruleus norepinephrine (LC-NE system plays a broad role in learning and memory. Here we begin with an overview of the LC-NE system. We then consider how both direct and indirect manipulations of the LC-NE system affect cued and contextual aversive learning and memory. We propose that NE dynamically modulates Pavlovian conditioning and extinction, either promoting or impairing learning aversive processes under different levels of behavioral arousal. We suggest that under high levels of stress (e.g., during/soon after fear conditioning the locus coeruleus (LC promotes cued fear learning by enhancing amygdala function while simultaneously blunting prefrontal function. Under low levels of arousal, the LC promotes PFC function to promote downstream inhibition of the amygdala and foster the extinction of cued fear. Thus, LC-NE action on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC might be described by an inverted-U function such that it can either enhance or hinder learning depending on arousal states. In addition, LC-NE seems to be particularly important for the acquisition, consolidation and extinction of contextual fear memories. This may be due to dense adrenoceptor expression in the hippocampus (HPC which encodes contextual information, and the ability of NE to regulate long-term potentiation (LTP. Moreover, recent work reveals that the diversity of LC-NE functions in aversive learning and memory are mediated by functionally heterogeneous populations of LC neurons that are defined by their projection targets. Hence, LC-NE function in learning and memory is determined by projection-specific neuromodulation that accompanies various states of behavioral arousal.

  16. Rho Ophiuchi Cloud Core Extinction Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, D. J.; Rudolph, A.; Barsony, M.

    1997-12-01

    We present an extinction map of a one square degree region ( ~ 2.2pc square) of the core of the star-forming region rho Ophiuchi derived by the method of star counts. Photometry from the near-infrared J, H, and K band images of Barsony et al. (1997) provided the stellar catalog for this study. From this map an estimate of the mass of the region is made and compared with previous estimates from other methods. Reference Barsony, M., Kenyon, S.J., Lada, E.A., & Teuben, P.J. 1997, ApJS, 112, 109

  17. The Electronic CardioMetabolic Program (eCMP) for Patients With Cardiometabolic Risk: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azar, Kristen M J; Koliwad, Suneil; Poon, Tak; Xiao, Lan; Lv, Nan; Griggs, Robert; Ma, Jun

    2016-05-27

    Effective lifestyle interventions targeting high-risk adults that are both practical for use in ambulatory care settings and scalable at a population management level are needed. Our aim was to examine the potential effectiveness, feasibility, and acceptability of delivering an evidence-based Electronic Cardio-Metabolic Program (eCMP) for improving health-related quality of life, improving health behaviors, and reducing cardiometabolic risk factors in ambulatory care high-risk adults. We conducted a randomized, wait-list controlled trial with 74 adults aged ≥18 years recruited from a large multispecialty health care organization. Inclusion criteria were (1) BMI ≥35 kg/m(2) and prediabetes, previous gestational diabetes and/or metabolic syndrome, or (2) BMI ≥30 kg/m(2) and type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Participants had a mean age of 59.7 years (SD 11.2), BMI 37.1 kg/m(2) (SD 5.4) and were 59.5% female, 82.4% white. Participants were randomized to participate in eCMP immediately (n=37) or 3 months later (n=37). eCMP is a 6-month program utilizing video conferencing, online tools, and pre-recorded didactic videos to deliver evidence-based curricula. Blinded outcome assessments were conducted at 3 and 6 months postbaseline. Data were collected and analyzed between 2014 and 2015. The primary outcome was health-related quality of life. Secondary outcomes included biometric cardiometabolic risk factors (eg, body weight), self-reported diet and physical activity, mental health status, retention, session attendance, and participant satisfaction. Change in quality of life was not significant in both immediate and delayed participants. Both groups significantly lost weight and reduced waist circumference at 6 months, with some cardiometabolic factors trending accordingly. Significant reduction in self-reported anxiety and perceived stress was seen in the immediate intervention group at 6 months. Retention rate was 93% at 3 months and 86% at 6 months

  18. Variation of the extinction law in the Trifid nebula

    OpenAIRE

    Cambrésy, L.; Rho, J.; Marshall, D. J.; Reach, W. T.

    2011-01-01

    Context. In the past few years, the extinction law has been measured in the infrared wavelengths for various molecular clouds and different laws have been obtained. Aims. In this paper we seek variations of the extinction law within the Trifid nebula region. Such variations would demonstrate local dust evolution linked to variation of the environment parameters such as the density or the interstellar radiation field. Methods. The extinction values, A_λ/A_v, are obtained using the 2MASS, UKIDS...

  19. Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

  20. Extinction and dust properties in a clumpy medium

    OpenAIRE

    Scicluna, P.; Siebenmorgen, R.

    2015-01-01

    (abridged) The dust content of the universe is primarily explored via its interaction with stellar photons, producing interstellar extinction. However, owing to the physical extension of the observing beam, observations may detect scattered photons, resulting in a change in the observed (or effective) extinction, depending on the spatial distribution of the dust and the resolution of the instrument. We investigate the influence of clumpy dust distributions on effective extinction toward embed...

  1. Effects of overtraining on extinction in newts (Cynops pyrrhogaster)

    OpenAIRE

    Shibasaki, Masahiro; Ishida, Masato

    2012-01-01

    The overtraining extinction effect (OEE), a phenomenon in which extended training facilitates extinction, has been found in mammals and reptiles. However, fish have never shown OEE. No study has yet investigated OEE in newts, a representative amphibian species. We tested whether newts, Cynops pyrrhogaster, show OEE in a straight-array task. All animals received five trials per day and were given a piece of dried worm during reinforced trials. They showed significant acquisition and extinction...

  2. Psychological and neural mechanisms of experimental extinction: a selective review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delamater, Andrew R; Westbrook, R Frederick

    2014-02-01

    The present review examines key psychological concepts in the study of experimental extinction and implications these have for an understanding of the underlying neurobiology of extinction learning. We suggest that many of the signature characteristics of extinction learning (spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, rapid reacquisition) can be accommodated by the standard associative learning theory assumption that extinction results in partial erasure of the original learning together with new inhibitory learning. Moreover, we consider recent behavioral and neural evidence that supports the partial erasure view of extinction, but also note shortcomings in our understanding of extinction circuits as these relate to the negative prediction error concept. Recent work suggests that common prediction error and stimulus-specific prediction error terms both may be required to explain neural plasticity both in acquisition and extinction learning. In addition, we suggest that many issues in the content of extinction learning have not been fully addressed in current research, but that neurobiological approaches should be especially helpful in addressing such issues. These include questions about the nature of extinction learning (excitatory CS-No US, inhibitory CS-US learning, occasion setting processes), especially as this relates to studies of the micro-circuitry of extinction, as well as its representational content (sensory, motivational, response). An additional understudied problem in extinction research is the role played by attention processes and their underlying neural networks, although some research and theory converge on the idea that extinction is accompanied by attention decrements (i.e., habituation-like processes). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Unbounded autocatalytic growth on diffusive substrate: The extinction transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moalem, Sasi; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2007-01-01

    The effect of diffusively correlated spatial fluctuations on the proliferation-extinction transition of autocatalytic agents is investigated numerically. Reactants adaptation to spatio-temporal active regions is shown to lead to proliferation even if the mean field rate equations predict extinction, in agreement with previous theoretical predictions. While in the proliferation phase the system admits a typical time scale that dictates the exponential growth, the extinction times distribution obeys a power law at the parameter region considered

  4. Fear extinction requires infralimbic cortex projections to the basolateral amygdala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloodgood, Daniel W; Sugam, Jonathan A; Holmes, Andrew; Kash, Thomas L

    2018-03-06

    Fear extinction involves the formation of a new memory trace that attenuates fear responses to a conditioned aversive memory, and extinction impairments are implicated in trauma- and stress-related disorders. Previous studies in rodents have found that the infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL) and its glutamatergic projections to the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and basomedial amygdala (BMA) instruct the formation of fear extinction memories. However, it is unclear whether these pathways are exclusively involved in extinction, or whether other major targets of the IL, such as the nucleus accumbens (NAc) also play a role. To address this outstanding issue, the current study employed a combination of electrophysiological and chemogenetic approaches in mice to interrogate the role of IL-BLA and IL-NAc pathways in extinction. Specifically, we used patch-clamp electrophysiology coupled with retrograde tracing to examine changes in neuronal activity of the IL and prelimbic cortex (PL) projections to both the BLA and NAc following fear extinction. We found that extinction produced a significant increase in the intrinsic excitability of IL-BLA projection neurons, while extinction appeared to reverse fear-induced changes in IL-NAc projection neurons. To establish a causal counterpart to these observations, we then used a pathway-specific Designer Receptors Exclusively Activated by Designer Drugs (DREADD) strategy to selectively inhibit PFC-BLA projection neurons during extinction acquisition. Using this approach, we found that DREADD-mediated inhibition of PFC-BLA neurons during extinction acquisition impaired subsequent extinction retrieval. Taken together, our findings provide further evidence for a critical contribution of the IL-BLA neural circuit to fear extinction.

  5. Glutamatergic Targets for Enhancing Extinction Learning in Drug Addiction

    OpenAIRE

    Cleva, R.M; Gass, J.T; Widholm, J.J; Olive, M.F

    2010-01-01

    The persistence of the motivational salience of drug-related environmental cues and contexts is one of the most problematic obstacles to successful treatment of drug addiction. Behavioral approaches to extinguishing the salience of drug-associated cues, such as cue exposure therapy, have generally produced disappointing results which have been attributed to, among other things, the context specificity of extinction and inadequate consolidation of extinction learning. Extinction of any behavio...

  6. Precision Photometric Extinction Corrections from Direct Atmospheric Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGraw, John T.; Zimmer, P.; Linford, J.; Simon, T.; Measurement Astrophysics Research Group

    2009-01-01

    For decades astronomical extinction corrections have been accomplished using nightly mean extinction coefficients derived from Langley plots measured with the same telescope used for photometry. Because this technique results in lost time on program fields, observers only grudgingly made sporadic extinction measurements. Occasionally extinction corrections are not measured nightly but are made using tabulated mean monthly or even quarterly extinction coefficients. Any observer of the sky knows that Earth's atmosphere is an ever-changing fluid in which is embedded extinction sources ranging from Rayleigh (molecular) scattering to aerosol, smoke and dust scattering and absorption, to "just plain cloudy.” Our eyes also tell us that the type, direction and degree of extinction changes on time scales of minutes or less - typically shorter than many astronomical observations. Thus, we should expect that atmospheric extinction can change significantly during a single observation. Mean extinction coefficients might be well-defined nightly means, but those means have high variance because they do not accurately record the wavelength-, time-, and angle-dependent extinction actually affecting each observation. Our research group is implementing lidar measurements made in the direction of observation with one minute cadence, from which the absolute monochromatic extinction can be measured. Simultaneous spectrophotometry of nearby bright standard stars allows derivation and MODTRAN modeling atmospheric transmission as a function of wavelength for the atmosphere through which an observation is made. Application of this technique is demonstrated. Accurate real-time extinction measurements are an enabling factor for sub-1% photometry. This research is supported by NSF Grant 0421087 and AFRL Grant #FA9451-04-2-0355.

  7. Late Quaternary extinctions: The promise of TAMS 14C dating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, P.S.

    1987-01-01

    In the last 30 000 years late Quaternary extinctions eliminated over two-thirds of the large land mammals of America and Australia and most of the endemic land vertebrates on oceanic islands. Specimens of extinct animals yielding too little organic material for measurement in decay counters are suitable for TAMS dating. Initial results support older evidence of an extinction chronology that was catastrophic regionally, transgressive globally, and linked to the spread of prehistoric people. (orig.)

  8. Compound stimulus extinction reduces spontaneous recovery in humans

    OpenAIRE

    Coelho, Cesar A.O.; Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Fear-related behaviors are prone to relapse following extinction. We tested in humans a compound extinction design (“deepened extinction”) shown in animal studies to reduce post-extinction fear recovery. Adult subjects underwent fear conditioning to a visual and an auditory conditioned stimulus (CSA and CSB, respectively) separately paired with an electric shock. The target CS (CSA) was extinguished alone followed by compound presentations of the extinguished CSA and nonextinguished CSB. Reco...

  9. The Effect of Size and Ecology on Extinction Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, C.; Yuan, A.; Heim, N.; Payne, J.

    2015-12-01

    Although life on Earth first emerged as prokaryotic organisms, it eventually evolved into billions of different species. However, extinctions on Earth, especially the five mass extinctions, have decimated species. So what leads to a species survival or demise during a mass extinction? Are certain species more susceptible to extinctions based on their size and ecology? For this project, we focused on the data of marine animals. To examine the impact of size and ecology on a species's likelihood of survival, we compared the sizes and ecologies of the survivors and victims of the five mass extinctions. The ecology, or life mode, of a genus consists of the combination of tiering, motility, and feeding mechanism. Tiering refers to the animal's typical location in the water column and sediments, motility refers to its ability to move, and feeding mechanism describes the way the organism eats; together, they describe the animal's behavior. We analyzed the effect of ecology on survival using logistic regression, which compares life mode to the success or failure of a genus during each mass extinction interval. For organism size, we found the extinct organisms' mean size (both volume and length) and compared it with the average size of survivors on a graph. Our results show that while surviving genera of mass extinctions tended to be slightly larger than those that went extinct, there was no significant difference. Even though the Permian (Changhsingian) and Triassic (Rhaetian) extinctions had larger surviving species, likewise the difference was small. Ecology had a more obvious impact on the likelihood of survival; fast-moving, predatory pelagic organisms were the most likely to go extinct, while sedentary, infaunal suspension feeders had the greatest chances of survival. Overall, ecology played a greater role than size in determining the survival of a species. With this information, we can use ecology to predict which species would survive future extinctions.

  10. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navjot S Sodhi

    Full Text Available Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545 or had increased (n = 28. These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  11. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodhi, Navjot S; Bickford, David; Diesmos, Arvin C; Lee, Tien Ming; Koh, Lian Pin; Brook, Barry W; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2008-02-20

    Habitat loss, climate change, over-exploitation, disease and other factors have been hypothesised in the global decline of amphibian biodiversity. However, the relative importance of and synergies among different drivers are still poorly understood. We present the largest global analysis of roughly 45% of known amphibians (2,583 species) to quantify the influences of life history, climate, human density and habitat loss on declines and extinction risk. Multi-model Bayesian inference reveals that large amphibian species with small geographic range and pronounced seasonality in temperature and precipitation are most likely to be Red-Listed by IUCN. Elevated habitat loss and human densities are also correlated with high threat risk. Range size, habitat loss and more extreme seasonality in precipitation contributed to decline risk in the 2,454 species that declined between 1980 and 2004, compared to species that were stable (n = 1,545) or had increased (n = 28). These empirical results show that amphibian species with restricted ranges should be urgently targeted for conservation.

  12. Are Metals Emitted from Electronic Cigarettes a Reason for Health Concern? A Risk-Assessment Analysis of Currently Available Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos E. Farsalinos

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have found that metals are emitted to the electronic cigarette (EC aerosol. However, the potential health impact of exposure to such metals has not been adequately defined. The purpose of this study was to perform a risk assessment analysis, evaluating the exposure of electronic cigarette (EC users to metal emissions based on findings from the published literature. Methods: Two studies were found in the literature, measuring metals emitted to the aerosol from 13 EC products. We estimated that users take on average 600 EC puffs per day, but we evaluated the daily exposure from 1200 puffs. Estimates of exposure were compared with the chronic Permissible Daily Exposure (PDE from inhalational medications defined by the U.S. Pharmacopeia (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and nickel, the Minimal Risk Level (MRL defined by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (manganese and the Recommended Exposure Limit (REL defined by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (aluminum, barium, iron, tin, titanium, zinc and zirconium. Results: The average daily exposure from 13 EC products was 2.6 to 387 times lower than the safety cut-off point of PDEs, 325 times lower than the safety limit of MRL and 665 to 77,514 times lower than the safety cut-off point of RELs. Only one of the 13 products was found to result in exposure 10% higher than PDE for one metal (cadmium at the extreme daily use of 1200 puffs. Significant differences in emissions between products were observed. Conclusions: Based on currently available data, overall exposure to metals from EC use is not expected to be of significant health concern for smokers switching to EC use, but is an unnecessary source of exposure for never-smokers. Metal analysis should be expanded to more products and exposure can be further reduced through improvements in product quality and appropriate choice of materials.

  13. Extinction in the Galaxy from surface brightnesses of ESO-LV galaxies : Testing "standard" extinction maps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choloniewski, J.; Valentijn, E. A.

    A new method for the determination of the extinction in the Galaxy is proposed. The method uses surface brightnesses of external galaxies in the B and R-bands. The observational data have been taken from the ESO-LV galaxy catalog. As a first application of our model we derive the ratio of R-band to

  14. Peering through the mist: systematic review of what the chemistry of contaminants in electronic cigarettes tells us about health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstyn, Igor

    2014-01-09

    Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are generally recognized as a safer alternative to combusted tobacco products, but there are conflicting claims about the degree to which these products warrant concern for the health of the vapers (e-cigarette users). This paper reviews available data on chemistry of aerosols and liquids of electronic cigarettes and compares modeled exposure of vapers with occupational safety standards. Both peer-reviewed and "grey" literature were accessed and more than 9,000 observations of highly variable quality were extracted. Comparisons to the most universally recognized workplace exposure standards, Threshold Limit Values (TLVs), were conducted under "worst case" assumptions about both chemical content of aerosol and liquids as well as behavior of vapers. There was no evidence of potential for exposures of e-cigarette users to contaminants that are associated with risk to health at a level that would warrant attention if it were an involuntary workplace exposures. The vast majority of predicted exposures are knowledge about chemistry of liquids and aerosols associated with electronic cigarettes indicates that there is no evidence that vaping produces inhalable exposures to contaminants of the aerosol that would warrant health concerns by the standards that are used to ensure safety of workplaces. However, the aerosol generated during vaping as a whole (contaminants plus declared ingredients) creates personal exposures that would justify surveillance of health among exposed persons in conjunction with investigation of means to keep any adverse health effects as low as reasonably achievable. Exposures of bystanders are likely to be orders of magnitude less, and thus pose no apparent concern.

  15. Colloquium paper: are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wake, David B; Vredenburg, Vance T

    2008-08-12

    Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians--frogs, salamanders, and caecilians--may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction.

  16. Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wake, David B.; Vredenburg, Vance T.

    2008-01-01

    Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one-third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction. PMID:18695221

  17. On the trap of extinction and its elimination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitanov, Nikolay K.; Dimitrova, Zlatinka I.; Kantz, Holger

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the dynamics of a system of three interacting populations in presence of extinction and substitution: each population whose number of individuals drops under some threshold value becomes extinct, and it is substituted by another population with different fitness and different coefficients of interaction with the other populations. We study the influence of extinction on the system states, which in the absence of extinction can be fixed points, limit cycles or chaotic attractors of Shilnikov kind. The extinction can destabilize each of these states. We observe two possible kinds of evolution in the destabilized system: (i) it can remain forever in the trap of extinction, i.e., the extinctions and substitutions of populations continue for indefinitely long time or (ii) it can avoid the trap of extinction by means of the substitution, i.e., the fitness and the coefficients of the interactions between the species move the system attractor away from the zone of the threshold values, the extinction stops, and the system settles on a new attractor. The obtained results are discussed from the point of view of products competing for the preference of buyers that can change their opinion

  18. Brain structural connectivity and context-dependent extinction memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermann, Andrea; Stark, Rudolf; Blecker, Carlo R; Milad, Mohammed R; Merz, Christian J

    2017-08-01

    Extinction of conditioned fear represents an important mechanism in the treatment of anxiety disorders. Return of fear after successful extinction or exposure therapy in patients with anxiety disorders might be linked to poor temporal or contextual generalization of extinction due to individual differences in brain structural connectivity. The goal of this magnetic resonance imaging study was therefore to investigate the association of context-dependent extinction recall with brain structural connectivity. Diffusion-tensor imaging was used to determine the fractional anisotropy as a measure of white matter structural integrity of fiber tracts connecting central brain regions of the fear and extinction circuit (uncinate fasciculus, cingulum). Forty-five healthy men participated in a two-day fear conditioning experiment with fear acquisition in context A and extinction learning in context B on the first day. Extinction recall in the extinction context as well as renewal in the acquisition context and a novel context C took place one day later. Renewal of conditioned fear (skin conductance responses) in the acquisition context was associated with higher structural integrity of the hippocampal part of the cingulum. Enhanced structural integrity of the cingulum might be related to stronger hippocampal modulation of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, a region important for modulating conditioned fear output by excitatory projections to the amygdala. This finding underpins the crucial role of individual differences in the structural integrity of relevant fiber tracts for context-dependent extinction recall and return of fear after exposure therapy in anxiety disorders. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Bilateral Alternating Auditory Stimulations Facilitate Fear Extinction and Retrieval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Boukezzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Disruption of fear conditioning, its extinction and its retrieval are at the core of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD. Such deficits, especially fear extinction delay, disappear after alternating bilateral stimulations (BLS during eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR therapy. An animal model of fear recovery, based on auditory cued fear conditioning and extinction learning, recently showed that BLS facilitate fear extinction and fear extinction retrieval. Our goal was to determine if these previous results found in animals can be reproduced in humans. Twenty-two healthy participants took part in a classical fear conditioning, extinction, and extinction recall paradigm. Behavioral responses (fear expectations as well as psychophysiological measures (skin conductance responses, SCRs were recorded. The results showed a significant fear expectation decrease during fear extinction with BLS. Additionally, SCR for fear extinction retrieval were significantly lower with BLS. Our results demonstrate the importance of BLS to reduce negative emotions, and provide a successful model to further explore the neural mechanisms underlying the sole BLS effect in the EMDR.

  20. Experience with dynamic reinforcement rates decreases resistance to extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Andrew R; Shahan, Timothy A

    2016-03-01

    The ability of organisms to detect reinforcer-rate changes in choice preparations is positively related to two factors: the magnitude of the change in rate and the frequency with which rates change. Gallistel (2012) suggested similar rate-detection processes are responsible for decreases in responding during operant extinction. Although effects of magnitude of change in reinforcer rate on resistance to extinction are well known (e.g., the partial-reinforcement-extinction effect), effects of frequency of changes in rate prior to extinction are unknown. Thus, the present experiments examined whether frequency of changes in baseline reinforcer rates impacts resistance to extinction. Pigeons pecked keys for variable-interval food under conditions where reinforcer rates were stable and where they changed within and between sessions. Overall reinforcer rates between conditions were controlled. In Experiment 1, resistance to extinction was lower following exposure to dynamic reinforcement schedules than to static schedules. Experiment 2 showed that resistance to presession feeding, a disruptor that should not involve change-detection processes, was unaffected by baseline-schedule dynamics. These findings are consistent with the suggestion that change detection contributes to extinction. We discuss implications of change-detection processes for extinction of simple and discriminated operant behavior and relate these processes to the behavioral-momentum based approach to understanding extinction. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  1. Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnosky, Anthony D; Matzke, Nicholas; Tomiya, Susumu; Wogan, Guinevere O U; Swartz, Brian; Quental, Tiago B; Marshall, Charles; McGuire, Jenny L; Lindsey, Emily L; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Mersey, Ben; Ferrer, Elizabeth A

    2011-03-03

    Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.

  2. Spatially Synchronous Extinction of Species under External Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amritkar, R. E.; Rangarajan, Govindan

    2006-06-01

    More than 99% of the species that ever existed on the surface of the Earth are now extinct and their extinction on a global scale has been a puzzle. One may think that a species under an external threat may survive in some isolated locations leading to the revival of the species. Using a general model we show that, under a common external forcing, the species with a quadratic saturation term first undergoes spatial synchronization and then extinction. The effect can be observed even when the external forcing acts only on some locations provided the dynamics contains a synchronizing term. Absence of the quadratic saturation term can help the species to avoid extinction.

  3. Extinction of Learned Fear Induces Hippocampal Place Cell Remapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Melissa E.; Yuan, Robin K.; Keinath, Alexander T.; Ramos Álvarez, Manuel M.

    2015-01-01

    The extinction of learned fear is a hippocampus-dependent process thought to embody new learning rather than erasure of the original fear memory, although it is unknown how these competing contextual memories are represented in the hippocampus. We previously demonstrated that contextual fear conditioning results in hippocampal place cell remapping and long-term stabilization of novel representations. Here we report that extinction learning also induces place cell remapping in C57BL/6 mice. Specifically, we observed cells that preferentially remapped during different stages of learning. While some cells remapped in both fear conditioning and extinction, others responded predominantly during extinction, which may serve to modify previous representations as well as encode new safe associations. Additionally, we found cells that remapped primarily during fear conditioning, which could facilitate reacquisition of the original fear association. Moreover, we also observed cells that were stable throughout learning, which may serve to encode the static aspects of the environment. The short-term remapping observed during extinction was not found in animals that did not undergo fear conditioning, or when extinction was conducted outside of the conditioning context. Finally, conditioning and extinction produced an increase in spike phase locking to the theta and gamma frequencies. However, the degree of remapping seen during conditioning and extinction only correlated with gamma synchronization. Our results suggest that the extinction learning is a complex process that involves both modification of pre-existing memories and formation of new ones, and these traces coexist within the same hippocampal representation. PMID:26085635

  4. Genetic disruptions of Drosophila Pavlovian learning leave extinction learning intact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, H; Dubnau, J

    2010-03-01

    Individuals who experience traumatic events may develop persistent posttraumatic stress disorder. Patients with this disorder are commonly treated with exposure therapy, which has had limited long-term success. In experimental neurobiology, fear extinction is a model for exposure therapy. In this behavioral paradigm, animals are repeatedly exposed in a safe environment to the fearful stimulus, which leads to greatly reduced fear. Studying animal models of extinction already has lead to better therapeutic strategies and development of new candidate drugs. Lack of a powerful genetic model of extinction, however, has limited progress in identifying underlying molecular and genetic factors. In this study, we established a robust behavioral paradigm to study the short-term effect (acquisition) of extinction in Drosophila melanogaster. We focused on the extinction of olfactory aversive 1-day memory with a task that has been the main workhorse for genetics of memory in flies. Using this paradigm, we show that extinction can inhibit each of two genetically distinct forms of consolidated memory. We then used a series of single-gene mutants with known impact on associative learning to examine the effects on extinction. We find that extinction is intact in each of these mutants, suggesting that extinction learning relies on different molecular mechanisms than does Pavlovian learning.

  5. Predicting impaired extinction of traumatic memory and elevated startle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Nalloor

    Full Text Available Emotionally traumatic experiences can lead to debilitating anxiety disorders, such as phobias and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD. Exposure to such experiences, however, is not sufficient to induce pathology, as only up to one quarter of people exposed to such events develop PTSD. These statistics, combined with findings that smaller hippocampal size prior to the trauma is associated with higher risk of developing PTSD, suggest that there are pre-disposing factors for such pathology. Because prospective studies in humans are limited and costly, investigating such pre-dispositions, and thus advancing understanding of the genesis of such pathologies, requires the use of animal models where predispositions are identified before the emotional trauma. Most existing animal models are retrospective: they classify subjects as those with or without a PTSD-like phenotype long after experiencing a traumatic event. Attempts to create prospective animal models have been largely unsuccessful.Here we report that individual predispositions to a PTSD-like phenotype, consisting of impaired rate and magnitude of extinction of an emotionally traumatic event coupled with long-lasting elevation of acoustic startle responses, can be revealed following exposure to a mild stressor, but before experiencing emotional trauma. We compare, in rats, the utility of several classification criteria and report that a combination of criteria based on acoustic startle responses and behavior in an anxiogenic environment is a reliable predictor of a PTSD-like phenotype.There are individual predispositions to developing impaired extinction and elevated acoustic startle that can be identified after exposure to a mildly stressful event, which by itself does not induce such a behavioral phenotype. The model presented here is a valuable tool for studying the etiology and pathophysiology of anxiety disorders and provides a platform for testing behavioral and pharmacological

  6. National evaluation of the benefits and risks of greater structuring and coding of the electronic health record: exploratory qualitative investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Zoe; Fernando, Bernard; Kalra, Dipak; Cresswell, Kathrin; Sheikh, Aziz

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to explore stakeholder views, attitudes, needs, and expectations regarding likely benefits and risks resulting from increased structuring and coding of clinical information within electronic health records (EHRs). Qualitative investigation in primary and secondary care and research settings throughout the UK. Data were derived from interviews, expert discussion groups, observations, and relevant documents. Participants (n=70) included patients, healthcare professionals, health service commissioners, policy makers, managers, administrators, systems developers, researchers, and academics. Four main themes arose from our data: variations in documentation practice; patient care benefits; secondary uses of information; and informing and involving patients. We observed a lack of guidelines, co-ordination, and dissemination of best practice relating to the design and use of information structures. While we identified immediate benefits for direct care and secondary analysis, many healthcare professionals did not see the relevance of structured and/or coded data to clinical practice. The potential for structured information to increase patient understanding of their diagnosis and treatment contrasted with concerns regarding the appropriateness of coded information for patients. The design and development of EHRs requires the capture of narrative information to reflect patient/clinician communication and computable data for administration and research purposes. Increased structuring and/or coding of EHRs therefore offers both benefits and risks. Documentation standards within clinical guidelines are likely to encourage comprehensive, accurate processing of data. As data structures may impact upon clinician/patient interactions, new models of documentation may be necessary if EHRs are to be read and authored by patients.

  7. Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilk, Ohad; Assaf, Michael

    2018-06-01

    In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.

  8. Featured Image: Extinction in Our Inner Galaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2017-11-01

    In this map of the innermost galaxy, which spans only a few square degrees at the Milky Ways center, we can seethe locations of more than 31 million objects obtained from the VISTA Variables in the Va Lctea (VVV) survey. This near-infrared atlas traces stellar populations in the inner Milky Way that are dimmed and reddened by interstellar dust and gas a process known as extinction in a predictable way. Led by Javier Alonso-Garca (University of Antofagasta and the Millennium Institute of Astrophysics in Chile), a team of scientists has now used the VVV measurements of these stars to better understand the distribution of gas and dust that causes extinction in our inner galaxy particularly in the most central, highly reddened, and crowded areas of the Milky Way. For more information, check out the paper below.CitationJavier Alonso-Garca et al 2017 ApJL 849 L13. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa92c3

  9. Dinosaur extinction: closing the '3 m gap'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyson, Tyler R; Bercovici, Antoine; Chester, Stephen G B; Sargis, Eric J; Pearson, Dean; Joyce, Walter G

    2011-12-23

    Modern debate regarding the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs was ignited by the publication of the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) asteroid impact theory and has seen 30 years of dispute over the position of the stratigraphically youngest in situ dinosaur. A zone devoid of dinosaur fossils reported from the last 3 m of the Upper Cretaceous, coined the '3 m gap', has helped drive controversy. Here, we report the discovery of the stratigraphically youngest in situ dinosaur specimen: a ceratopsian brow horn found in a poorly rooted, silty, mudstone floodplain deposit located no more than 13 cm below the palynologically defined boundary. The K-T boundary is identified using three criteria: (i) decrease in Cretaceous palynomorphs without subsequent recovery, (ii) the existence of a 'fern spike', and (iii) correlation to a nearby stratigraphic section where primary extraterrestrial impact markers are present (e.g. iridium anomaly, spherules, shocked quartz). The in situ specimen demonstrates that a gap devoid of non-avian dinosaur fossils does not exist and is inconsistent with the hypothesis that non-avian dinosaurs were extinct prior to the K-T boundary impact event.

  10. Health behaviors and quality of life predictors for risk of hospitalization in an electronic health record-linked biobank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takahashi PY

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Paul Y Takahashi,1,2 Euijung Ryu,3 Janet E Olson,3 Erin M Winkler,4 Matthew A Hathcock,3 Ruchi Gupta,3 Jeff A Sloan,3 Jyotishman Pathak,3 Suzette J Bielinski,3 James R Cerhan3 1Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, 2Department of Internal Medicine, 3Department of Health Sciences Research, 4Center for Individualized Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Background: Hospital risk stratification models using electronic health records (EHRs often use age and comorbid health burden. Our primary aim was to determine if quality of life or health behaviors captured in an EHR-linked biobank can predict future risk of hospitalization. Methods: Participants in the Mayo Clinic Biobank completed self-administered questionnaires at enrollment that included quality of life and health behaviors. Participants enrolled as of December 31, 2010 were followed for one year to ascertain hospitalization. Data on comorbidities and hospitalization were derived from the Mayo Clinic EHR. Hazard ratios (HR and 95% confidence interval (CI were used, adjusted for age and sex. We used gradient boosting machines models to integrate multiple factors. Different models were compared using C-statistic. Results: Of the 8,927 eligible Mayo Clinic Biobank participants, 834 (9.3% were hospitalized. Self-perceived health status and alcohol use had the strongest associations with risk of hospitalization. Compared to participants with excellent self-perceived health, those reporting poor/fair health had higher risk of hospitalization (HR =3.66, 95% CI 2.74–4.88. Alcohol use was inversely associated with hospitalization (HR =0.57 95% CI 0.45–0.72. The gradient boosting machines model estimated self-perceived health as the most influential factor (relative influence =16%. The predictive ability of the model based on comorbidities was slightly higher than the one based on the self-perceived health (C-statistic =0.67 vs 0.65. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that self

  11. Prevalence, Reasons for Use, and Risk Perception of Electronic Cigarettes Among Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Andrew M; Leavens, Eleanor L; Wagener, Theodore L; Buckley, Maria L; Tooley, Erin M

    2016-01-01

    The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) has risen dramatically in recent years. However, there are currently no published data on the use of e-cigarettes among cardiac patients. The current study reports on the prevalence, reasons for use, and perceived risks of e-cigarettes among patients with post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The relationship between e-cigarette use and post-ACS tobacco smoking cessation is also explored. Participants were drawn from a randomized trial of smoking cessation treatments following hospitalization for ACS. The current study focused on 49 participants who completed e-cigarette questions at 24 weeks post-ACS. Of the 49 of participants, 51.0% reported ever use of an e-cigarette and 26.5% reported using an e-cigarette at some time during the 24 weeks post-ACS. Ever use and post-ACS use were both significantly associated with lower rates of abstinence from tobacco cigarettes. Participants perceived e-cigarettes as less harmful to cardiac health than tobacco use and Chantix (varenicline), and similarly harmful as nicotine replacement therapy. Participant perceived likelihood of experiencing a heart attack in the next year was 34.6% if they were to regularly use only e-cigarettes, significantly lower than the perceived risk of recurrence if they were to regularly smoke only tobacco cigarettes (56.2%) and significantly higher than the perceived risk of recurrence if they were to use no nicotine (15.2%). A significant minority of patients are using e-cigarettes post-ACS. Providers should be prepared to discuss potential discrepancies between patient beliefs about the safety of e-cigarettes and the current state of the science.

  12. SU-F-T-248: FMEA Risk Analysis Implementation (AAPM TG-100) in Total Skin Electron Irradiation Technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez-Rosello, B; Bautista-Ballesteros, J; Bonaque, J [Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Perez-Calatayud, J [Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Clinica Benidorm, Benidorm, Alicante (Spain); Gonzalez-Sanchis, A; Lopez-Torrecilla, J; Brualla-Gonzalez, L; Garcia-Hernandez, T; Vicedo-Gonzalez, A; Granero, D; Serrano, A; Borderia, B; Solera, C [Hospital General ERESA, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Rosello, J [Hospital General ERESA, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Valencia (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Total Skin Electron Irradiation (TSEI) is a radiotherapy treatment which involves irradiating the entire body surface as homogeneously as possible. It is composed of an extensive multi-step technique in which quality management requires high consumption of resources and a fluid communication between the involved staff, necessary to improve the safety of treatment. The TG-100 proposes a new perspective of quality management in radiotherapy, presenting a systematic method of risk analysis throughout the global flow of the stages through the patient. The purpose of this work has been to apply TG-100 approach to the TSEI procedure in our institution. Methods: A multidisciplinary team specifically targeting TSEI procedure was formed, that met regularly and jointly developed the process map (PM), following TG-100 guidelines of the AAPM. This PM is a visual representation of the temporal flow of steps through the patient since start until the end of his stay in the radiotherapy service. Results: This is the first stage of the full risk analysis, which is being carried out in the center. The PM provides an overview of the process and facilitates the understanding of the team members who will participate in the subsequent analysis. Currently, the team is implementing the analysis of failure modes and effects (FMEA). The failure modes of each of the steps have been identified and assessors are assigning a value of severity (S), frequency of occurrence (O) and lack of detection (D) individually. To our knowledge, this is the first PM made for the TSEI. The developed PM can be useful for those centers that intend to implement the TSEI technique. Conclusion: The PM of TSEI technique has been established, as the first stage of full risk analysis, performed in a reference center in this treatment.

  13. Individual Variation in Life History Characteristics Can Influence Extinction Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jager, H I

    2001-01-01

    The white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) shows great individual variation in the age at maturation. This study examines the consequences of model assumptions about individual variation in the age at maturation on predicted population viability. I considered: (1) the effects of variation in age at maturation alone; (2) the effects of heritability; and (3) the influence of a stable and an altered selective regime. Two selective regimes represented conditions before and after the impoundment of a river, blocking access of anadromous white sturgeon populations to the ocean. In contrast to previous simulation studies, I found that increased individual variation in the age at maturity did not necessarily lead to a higher likelihood of persistence. Individual variation increased the simulated likelihood of persistence when the variation was heritable and the selective regime had changed such that the mean age at maturity was no longer optimal.

  14. Extinction risk assessment of the world’s seagrass species

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Short, F.T.; Polidoro, B.; Livingstone, S.R.; Carpenter, K.E.; Bandeira, S.; Bujang, J.S.; Calumpong, H.P.; Carruthers, T.J.B.; Coles, R.G.; Dennison, W.C.; Erftemeijer, P.L.A.; Fortes, M.D.; Freeman, A.S.; Jagtap, T.G.; Kamal, A.H.M.; Kendrick, G.A.; Kenworthy, W.J.; LaNafie, Y.A.; Nasution, I.M.; Orth, R.J.; Prathep, A.; Sanciangco, J.C.; Tussenbroek, B.V.; Vergara, S.G.; Waycott, M.; Zieman, J.C.

    of the Philippines at Los Baños, School of Environmental Science and Management, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines t James Cook University, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia u University of Virginia, Department...

  15. Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amano, Tatsuya; Sandel, Brody; Eager, Heidi

    2014-01-01

    latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines...

  16. Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification

    OpenAIRE

    Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-liv...

  17. Acute stress impairs the retrieval of extinction memory in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raio, Candace M.; Brignoni-Perez, Edith; Goldman, Rachel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    Extinction training is a form of inhibitory learning that allows an organism to associate a previously aversive cue with a new, safe outcome. Extinction does not erase a fear association, but instead creates a competing association that may or may not be retrieved when a cue is subsequently encountered. Characterizing the conditions under which extinction learning is expressed is important to enhancing the treatment of anxiety disorders that rely on extinction-based exposure therapy as a primary treatment technique. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex, which plays an important role in the expression of extinction memory, has been shown to be functionally impaired after stress exposure. Further, recent research in rodents found that exposure to stress led to deficits in extinction retrieval, although this has yet to be tested in humans. To explore how stress might influence extinction retrieval in humans, participants underwent a differential aversive learning paradigm, in which one image was probabilistically paired with an aversive shock while the other image denoted safety. Extinction training directly followed, at which point reinforcement was omitted. A day later, participants returned to the lab and either completed an acute stress manipulation (i.e., cold pressor), or a control task, before undergoing an extinction retrieval test. Skin conductance responses and salivary cortisol concentrations were measured throughout each session as indices of fear arousal and neuroendocrine stress responses, respectively. The efficacy of our stress induction was established by observing significant increases in cortisol for the stress condition only. We examined extinction retrieval by comparing conditioned responses during the last trial of extinction (day 1) with that of the first trial of re-extinction (day 2). Groups did not differ on initial fear acquisition or extinction, however, one day later participants in the stress group (n = 27) demonstrated significantly less

  18. A robust nonparametric method for quantifying undetected extinctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisholm, Ryan A; Giam, Xingli; Sadanandan, Keren R; Fung, Tak; Rheindt, Frank E

    2016-06-01

    How many species have gone extinct in modern times before being described by science? To answer this question, and thereby get a full assessment of humanity's impact on biodiversity, statistical methods that quantify undetected extinctions are required. Such methods have been developed recently, but they are limited by their reliance on parametric assumptions; specifically, they assume the pools of extant and undetected species decay exponentially, whereas real detection rates vary temporally with survey effort and real extinction rates vary with the waxing and waning of threatening processes. We devised a new, nonparametric method for estimating undetected extinctions. As inputs, the method requires only the first and last date at which each species in an ensemble was recorded. As outputs, the method provides estimates of the proportion of species that have gone extinct, detected, or undetected and, in the special case where the number of undetected extant species in the present day is assumed close to zero, of the absolute number of undetected extinct species. The main assumption of the method is that the per-species extinction rate is independent of whether a species has been detected or not. We applied the method to the resident native bird fauna of Singapore. Of 195 recorded species, 58 (29.7%) have gone extinct in the last 200 years. Our method projected that an additional 9.6 species (95% CI 3.4, 19.8) have gone extinct without first being recorded, implying a true extinction rate of 33.0% (95% CI 31.0%, 36.2%). We provide R code for implementing our method. Because our method does not depend on strong assumptions, we expect it to be broadly useful for quantifying undetected extinctions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine facilitates fear extinction learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, M B; Andero, R; Ressler, K J; Howell, L L

    2015-09-15

    Acutely administered 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, 'ecstasy') has been proposed to have long-term positive effects on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms when combined with psychotherapy. No preclinical data support a mechanistic basis for these claims. Given the persistent nature of psychotherapeutic gains facilitated by MDMA, we hypothesized that MDMA improves fear extinction learning, a key process in exposure-based therapies for PTSD. In these experiments, mice were first exposed to cued fear conditioning and treated with drug vehicle or MDMA before extinction training 2 days later. MDMA was administered systemically and also directly targeted to brain structures known to contribute to extinction. In addition to behavioral measures of extinction, changes in mRNA levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf) and Fos were measured after MDMA treatment and extinction. MDMA (7.8 mg kg(-1)) persistently and robustly enhanced long-term extinction when administered before extinction training. MDMA increased the expression of Fos in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), whereas increases in Bdnf expression were observed only in the amygdala after extinction training. Extinction enhancements were recapitulated when MDMA (1 μg) was infused directly into the basolateral complex of the amygdala (BLA), and enhancement was abolished when BDNF signaling was inhibited before extinction. These findings suggest that MDMA enhances fear memory extinction through a BDNF-dependent mechanism, and that MDMA may be a useful adjunct to exposure-based therapies for PTSD and other anxiety disorders characterized by altered fear learning.

  20. Allee effect: the story behind the stabilization or extinction of microbial ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Madhurankhi; Bhattacharyya, Purnita; Tribedi, Prosun

    2017-03-01

    A population exhibiting Allee effect shows a positive correlation between population fitness and population size or density. Allee effect decides the extinction or conservation of a microbial population and thus appears to be an important criterion in population ecology. The underlying factor of Allee effect that decides the stabilization and extinction of a particular population density is the threshold or the critical density of their abundance. According to Allee, microbial populations exhibit a definite, critical or threshold density, beyond which the population fitness of a particular population increases with the rise in population density and below it, the population fitness goes down with the decrease in population density. In particular, microbial population displays advantageous traits such as biofilm formation, expression of virulence genes, spore formation and many more only at a high population density. It has also been observed that microorganisms exhibiting a lower population density undergo complete extinction from the residual microbial ecosystem. In reference to Allee effect, decrease in population density or size introduces deleterious mutations among the population density through genetic drift. Mutations are carried forward to successive generations resulting in its accumulation among the population density thus reducing its microbial fitness and thereby increasing the risk of extinction of a particular microbial population. However, when the microbial load is high, the chance of genetic drift is less, and through the process of biofilm formation, the cooperation existing among the microbial population increases that increases the microbial fitness. Thus, the high microbial population through the formation of microbial biofilm stabilizes the ecosystem by increasing fitness. Taken together, microbial fitness shows positive correlation with the ecosystem conservation and negative correlation with ecosystem extinction.

  1. The path to host extinction can lead to loss of generalist parasites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Maxwell J; Stephens, Patrick R; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Gittleman, John L; Davies, T Jonathan

    2015-07-01

    Host extinction can alter disease transmission dynamics, influence parasite extinction and ultimately change the nature of host-parasite systems. While theory predicts that single-host parasites are among the parasite species most susceptible to extinction following declines in their hosts, documented parasite extinctions are rare. Using a comparative approach, we investigate how the richness of single-host and multi-host parasites is influenced by extinction risk among ungulate and carnivore hosts. Host-parasite associations for free-living carnivores (order Carnivora) and terrestrial ungulates (orders Perissodactyla + Cetartiodactyla minus cetaceans) were merged with host trait data and IUCN Red List status to explore the distribution of single-host and multi-host parasites among threatened and non-threatened hosts. We find that threatened ungulates harbour a higher proportion of single-host parasites compared to non-threatened ungulates, which is explained by decreases in the richness of multi-host parasites. However, among carnivores threat status is not a significant predictor of the proportion of single-host parasites, or the richness of single-host or multi-host parasites. The loss of multi-host parasites from threatened ungulates may be explained by decreased cross-species contact as hosts decline and habitats become fragmented. Among carnivores, threat status may not be important in predicting patterns of parasite specificity because host decline results in equal losses of both single-host parasites and multi-host parasites through reduction in average population density and frequency of cross-species contact. Our results contrast with current models of parasite coextinction and highlight the need for updated theories that are applicable across host groups and account for both inter- and intraspecific contact. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

  2. Peering through the veil: near-infrared photometry and extinction for the Galactic nuclear star cluster. Accurate near infrared H, Ks, and L' photometry and the near-infrared extinction-law toward the central parsec of the Galaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schödel, R.; Najarro, F.; Muzic, K.; Eckart, A.

    2010-02-01

    -law indices of the extinction-law of αH-Ks=2.21±0.24 and αKs-L'=1.34±0.29. A Ks-band extinction map for the Galactic center is computed based on this extinction law and on stellar H-Ks colors. Both its statistical and systematic uncertainties are estimated to be value of AKs=2.74±0.30 mag. Mean extinction values in a circular region with 0.5'' radius centered on Sagittarius A* are AH, SgrA*=4.35±0.12, AKs, SgrA*=2.46±0.03, and AL', SgrA*=1.23±0.08. Full Table A.2 is only available in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/511/A18 The extinction map shown in the top left of Fig. 6 can be obtained in electronic form at the same site.

  3. Deepened Extinction following Compound Stimulus Presentation: Noradrenergic Modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janak, Patricia H.; Corbit, Laura H.

    2011-01-01

    Behavioral extinction is an active form of new learning involving the prediction of nonreward where reward has previously been present. The expression of extinction learning can be disrupted by the presentation of reward itself or reward-predictive stimuli (reinstatement) as well as the passage of time (spontaneous recovery) or contextual changes…

  4. Asymptotic behaviour near extinction of continuous-state branching processes

    OpenAIRE

    Berzunza, Gabriel; Pardo, Juan Carlos

    2016-01-01

    In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.

  5. DUST EXTINCTION IN NGC-4594, THE SOMBRERO GALAXY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KNAPEN, JH; HES, R; BECKMAN, JE; PELETIER, RF

    We have studied the extinction law in the well-defined dust lane of the Sombrero galaxy, NGC4594. In the R,I,J,H, and K bands we find good agreement between values for the extinction ratios A-lambda/A(v) in NGC4594 and those reported for our own Galaxy. We can explain the apparently somewhat lower

  6. Ultraviolet extinction in M-supergiant circumstellar envelopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buss, R.H. Jr.; Snow, T.P. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    Using International Ultraviolet (IUS) archival low-dispersion spectra, ultraviolet spectral extinctions were derived for the circumstellar envelopes of two M supergiants: HD 60414 and HD 213310. The observed stellar systems belong to a class of widely-separated spectroscopic binaries that are called VV Cephei stars. The total extinction was calculated by dividing the reddened fluxes with unreddened comparison fluxes of similar stars (g B2.5 for HD 213310 and a normalized s+B3 for HD 60414) from the reference atlas. After substracting the interstellar extinctions, which were estimated from the E(B-V) reddening of nearby stars, the resultant circumstellar extinctions were normalized at about 3.5 inverse microns. Not only is the 2175 A extinction bump absent in the circumstellar extinctions, but the far-ultraviolet extinction rise is also absent. The rather flat, ultraviolet extinction curves were interpreted as signatures of a population of noncarbonaceous, oxygen-rich grains with diameters larger than the longest observed wavelength

  7. d-Cycloserine reduces context specificity of sexual extinction learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Trimbos, Baptist; Both, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    d-Cycloserine (DCS) enhances extinction processes in animals. Although classical conditioning is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in the aetiology of appetitive motivation problems, no research has been conducted on the effect of DCS on the reduction of context specificity of extinction in human

  8. About one of possible cosmic causes of extinction of organisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kagramanov, Yu.R.

    2004-01-01

    Based on the analysis of diverse causes of extinction of organisms in the history of the Earth and a new hypothesis of cosmic origin of oil, a suggested new possible cause of such extinction is related to intoxication with hydrocarbons arriving from the outer space

  9. Relating plant height to demographic rates and extinction vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de Melinda M.J.; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Jongejans, Eelke; Ozinga, Wim A.; Hendriks, A.J.; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2018-01-01

    To prioritize conservation efforts, it is important to know which plant species are most vulnerable to extinction. Intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities depend on demographic parameters, but for many species these demographic parameters are lacking. Body size has been successfully used as proxy of

  10. Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-09

    network geometries. From the pre-history of paths that go extinct, a density function is created from the prehistory of these paths, and a clear local...density plots of Fig. 3b. Using the IAMM to compute the most probable path and comparing it to the prehistory of extinction events on stochastic networks

  11. A comprehensive genomic history of extinct and living elephants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Lipson, Mark; Mallick, Swapan

    2018-01-01

    Elephantids are the world's most iconic megafaunal family, yet there is no comprehensive genomic assessment of their relationships. We report a total of 14 genomes, including 2 from the American mastodon, which is an extinct elephantid relative, and 12 spanning all three extant and three extinct...

  12. Late Pleistocene and Holocene mammal extinctions on continental Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faith, J. Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cause of late Quaternary mammal extinctions is the subject of intense debate spanning the fields of archeology and paleontology. In the global context, the losses on continental Africa have received little attention and are poorly understood. This study aims to inspire new discussion of African extinctions through a review of the extinct species and the chronology and possible causes of those extinctions. There are at least 24 large mammal (> 5 kg) species known to have disappeared from continental Africa during the late Pleistocene or Holocene, indicating a much greater taxonomic breadth than previously recognized. Among the better sampled taxa, these losses are restricted to the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene, between 13,000 and 6000 yrs ago. The African extinctions preferentially affected species that are grazers or prefer grasslands. Where good terrestrial paleoenvironmental records are present, extinctions are associated with changes in the availability, productivity, or structure of grassland habitats, suggesting that environmental changes played a decisive role in the losses. In the broader evolutionary context, these extinctions represent recent examples of selective taxonomic winnowing characterized by the loss of grassland specialists and the establishment of large mammal communities composed of more ecologically flexible taxa over the last million years. There is little reason to believe that humans played an important role in African extinctions.

  13. Theoretical investigation of the extinction coefficient of magnetic fluid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang Xiaopeng; Xuan Yimin, E-mail: ymxuan@mail.njust.edu.cn; Li Qiang [Nanjing University of Science and Technology, School of Energy and Power Engineering (China)

    2013-05-15

    A new theoretical approach for calculating the extinction coefficient of magnetic fluid is proposed, which is based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and T-matrix method. By means of this approach, the influence of particle diameter, particle volume fraction, and external magnetic filed on the extinction coefficient of magnetic fluid is investigated. The results show that the extinction coefficient of the magnetic fluid linearly increases with increase in the particle volume fraction. For a given particle volume fraction, the extinction coefficient increases with increase in the particle diameter which varies from 5 to 20 nm. When a uniform external magnetic filed is applied to the magnetic fluid, the extinction coefficient of the magnetic fluid presents an anisotropic feature. These results agree well with the reported experimental results. The proposed approach is applicable to investigating the optical properties of magnetic fluids.

  14. Adrenalectomy eliminates the extinction spike in autoshaping with rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, B L; Papini, M R

    2001-03-01

    Experiment 1, using rats, investigated the effect of adrenalectomy (ADX) on the invigoration of lever-contact performance that occurs in the autoshaping situation after a shift from acquisition to extinction (called the extinction spike). Groups of rats with ADX or sham operations were trained under spaced and massed conditions [average intertrial intervals (ITI) of either 15 or 90 s] for 10 sessions and then shifted to extinction. ADX did not affect acquisition training but it eliminated the extinction spike. Plasma corticosterone levels during acquisition were shown in Experiment 2 to be similar in rats trained under spaced or massed conditions. Adrenal participation in the emotional arousal induced by conditions of surprising nonreward (e.g., extinction) is discussed.

  15. Unpaired shocks during extinction weaken the contextual renewal of a conditioned discrimination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervliet, B.; Vansteenwegen, D.; Hermans, D.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction is generally more fragile than conditioning, as illustrated by the contextual renewal effect. The traditional extinction procedure entails isolated presentations of the conditioned stimulus. Extinction may be boosted by adding isolated presentations of the unconditioned stimulus, as this

  16. Demography and the extinction of European Neanderthals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent

    2011-01-01

    Causes previously suggested for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) in Europe, starting around 35,000 years ago, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. The aim here is to formulate a demographic model with reconstructed fertility and de...... uncertainty. Finally, the option of regional migration between northern, middle and southern Europe is added, in order to capture population movements away from a region in response to deteriorating or improving climate. This model accounts for population developments, including the re......-population of the Middle and Northern regions of Europe during and after the warm Eem period. However, parameter choices that give plausible results during the initial 210,000 years also predict that the Neanderthals should have survived the latter part of the Weichselian ice age, despite competing for food with Modern...

  17. Promotion of cooperation by selective group extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, Marvin A.; Nagler, Jan

    2016-06-01

    Multilevel selection is an important organizing principle that crucially underlies evolutionary processes from the emergence of cells to eusociality and the economics of nations. Previous studies on multilevel selection assumed that the effective higher-level selection emerges from lower-level reproduction. This leads to selection among groups, although only individuals reproduce. We introduce selective group extinction, where groups die with a probability inversely proportional to their group fitness. When accounting for this the critical benefit-to-cost ratio is substantially lowered. Because in game theory and evolutionary dynamics the degree of cooperation crucially depends on this ratio above which cooperation emerges, previous studies may have substantially underestimated the establishment and maintenance of cooperation.

  18. Is chytridiomycosis driving Darwin's frogs to extinction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Soto-Azat

    Full Text Available Darwin's frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum are two species of mouth brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina that have experienced marked population declines. Rhinoderma rufum has not been found in the wild since 1980. We investigated historical and current evidence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd infection in Rhinoderma spp. to determine whether chytridiomycosis is implicated in the population declines of these species. Archived and live specimens of Rhinoderma spp., sympatric amphibians and amphibians at sites where Rhinoderma sp. had recently gone extinct were examined for Bd infection using quantitative real-time PCR. Six (0.9% of 662 archived anurans tested positive for Bd (4/289 R. darwinii; 1/266 R. rufum and 1/107 other anurans, all of which had been collected between 1970 and 1978. An overall Bd-infection prevalence of 12.5% was obtained from 797 swabs taken from 369 extant individuals of R. darwinii and 428 individuals representing 18 other species of anurans found at sites with current and recent presence of the two Rhinoderma species. In extant R. darwinii, Bd-infection prevalence (1.9% was significantly lower than that found in other anurans (7.3%. The prevalence of infection (30% in other amphibian species was significantly higher in sites where either Rhinoderma spp. had become extinct or was experiencing severe population declines than in sites where there had been no apparent decline (3.0%; x(2 = 106.407, P<0.001. This is the first report of widespread Bd presence in Chile and our results are consistent with Rhinoderma spp. declines being due to Bd infection, although additional field and laboratory investigations are required to investigate this further.

  19. High frequency of functional extinctions in ecological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Säterberg, Torbjörn; Sellman, Stefan; Ebenman, Bo

    2013-07-25

    Intensified exploitation of natural populations and habitats has led to increased mortality rates and decreased abundances of many species. There is a growing concern that this might cause critical abundance thresholds of species to be crossed, with extinction cascades and state shifts in ecosystems as a consequence. When increased mortality rate and decreased abundance of a given species lead to extinction of other species, this species can be characterized as functionally extinct even though it still exists. Although such functional extinctions have been observed in some ecosystems, their frequency is largely unknown. Here we use a new modelling approach to explore the frequency and pattern of functional extinctions in ecological networks. Specifically, we analytically derive critical abundance thresholds of species by increasing their mortality rates until an extinction occurs in the network. Applying this approach on natural and theoretical food webs, we show that the species most likely to go extinct first is not the one whose mortality rate is increased but instead another species. Indeed, up to 80% of all first extinctions are of another species, suggesting that a species' ecological functionality is often lost before its own existence is threatened. Furthermore, we find that large-bodied species at the top of the food chains can only be exposed to small increases in mortality rate and small decreases in abundance before going functionally extinct compared to small-bodied species lower in the food chains. These results illustrate the potential importance of functional extinctions in ecological networks and lend strong support to arguments advocating a more community-oriented approach in conservation biology, with target levels for populations based on ecological functionality rather than on mere persistence.

  20. Levels and risk factors of antimony contamination in human hair from an electronic waste recycling area, Guiyu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yue; Ni, Wenqing; Chen, Yaowen; Wang, Xiaoling; Zhang, Jingwen; Wu, Kusheng

    2015-05-01

    The primitive electronic waste (e-waste) recycling has brought a series of environmental pollutants in Guiyu, China. Antimony is one of the important metal contaminants and has aroused the global concerns recently. We aimed to investigate concentrations of antimony in human hair from Guiyu and compared them with those from a control area where no e-waste recycling exists, and assessed the potential risk factors. A total of 205 human hair samples from Guiyu and 80 samples from Jinping were collected for analysis. All volunteers were asked to complete a questionnaire including socio-demographic characteristics and other possible factors related to hair antimony exposure. The concentrations of hair antimony were analyzed using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Our results indicated that the level of hair antimony in volunteers from Guiyu (median, 160.78; range, 6.99-4412.59 ng/g) was significantly higher than those from Jinping (median, 61.74; range, 2.98-628.43 ng/g). The residents who engaged in e-waste recycling activities in Guiyu had higher hair antimony concentrations than others (P recycling. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that hair antimony concentrations were associated with education level (β = -0.064), the time of residence in Guiyu (β = 0.112), living house also served as e-waste workshop (β = 0.099), the work related to e-waste (β = 0.169), and smoking (β = 0.018). The elevated hair antimony concentrations implied that the residents in Guiyu might be at high risk of antimony contamination, especially the e-waste recycling workers. Work related to e-waste recycling activities and long-time residence in Guiyu contributed to the high hair antimony exposure.