Coordinated research programme on safety of RBMK type NPPs in relation to external events. V. 1. Working material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

The present volume is a collection of progress reports which have been submitted within the scope of the CRP on safety of RBMK type NPPs in relation to external events including seismic related papers and man-induced events (explosions and airplane crash). It includes papers concerned with experience related to RBMK equipment testing and calculations of seismic resistance, soil-structure interactions analysis, safety assurance, aircraft impact qualification and other external events for RBMK type NPP, seismic stability of NPPs in Eastern Europe, probabilistic assessment of NPP safety under aircraft impact, dynamic analysis of NPPs, screening of external hazards for NPP

Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew Bucknor

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general for the postulated transient event.

Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)

2017-03-15

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin

2017-01-01

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event

Current regulatory developments concerning the implementation of probabilistic safety analyses for external hazards in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krauss, Matias; Berg, Heinz-Peter

2014-01-01

The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) initiated in September 2003 a comprehensive program for the revision of the national nuclear safety regulations which has been successfully completed in November 2012. These nuclear regulations take into account the current recommendations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA). In this context, the recommendations and guidelines of the Nuclear Safety Standards Commission (KTA) and the technical documents elaborated by the respective expert group on Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants (FAK PSA) are being updated or in the final process of completion. A main topic of the revision was the issue external hazards. As part of this process and in the light of the accident at Fukushima and the findings of the related actions resulting in safety reviews of nuclear power plants at national level in Germany and on European level, a revision of all relevant standards and documents has been made, especially the recommendations of KTA and FAK PSA. In that context, not only design issues with respect to events such as earthquakes and floods have been discussed, but also methodological issues regarding the implementation of improved probabilistic safety analyses on this topic. As a result of the revision of the KTA 2201 series 'Design of Nuclear Power Plants against Seismic Events' with their parts 1 to 6, part 1 'Principles' was published as the first standard in November 2011, followed by the revised versions of KTA 2201.2 (soil) and 2201.4 (systems and components) in 2012. The modified the standard KTA 2201.3 (structures) is expected to be issued before the end of 2013. In case of part 5 (seismic instrumentation) and part 6 (post>seismic actions) draft amendments are expected in 2013. The expert group 'Probabilistic Safety Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants' (FAK PSA) is an advisory body of the Federal

Analysis of core damage frequency due to external events at the DOE [Department of Energy] N-Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambright, J.A.; Bohn, M.P.; Daniel, S.L.; Baxter, J.T.; Johnson, J.J.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.O.; Mraz, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Conoscente, J.P.; Brosseau, D.A.

1990-11-01

A complete external events probabilistic risk assessment has been performed for the N-Reactor power plant, making full use of all insights gained during the past ten years' developments in risk assessment methodologies. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that all external events had negligible contribution to core damage frequency except fires, seismic events, and external flooding. A limited scope analysis of the external flooding risk indicated that it is not a major risk contributor. Detailed analyses of the fire and seismic risks resulted in total (mean) core damage frequencies of 1.96E-5 and 4.60E-05 per reactor year, respectively. Detailed uncertainty analyses were performed for both fire and seismic risks. These results show that the core damage frequency profile for these events is comparable to that found for existing commercial power plants if proposed fixes are completed as part of the restart program. 108 refs., 85 figs., 80 tabs

Analysis of core damage frequency due to external events at the DOE (Department of Energy) N-Reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lambright, J.A.; Bohn, M.P.; Daniel, S.L. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Baxter, J.T. (Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (USA)); Johnson, J.J.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.O.; Mraz, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Conoscente, J.P. (EQE, Inc., San Francisco, CA (USA)); Brosseau, D.A. (ERCE, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1990-11-01

A complete external events probabilistic risk assessment has been performed for the N-Reactor power plant, making full use of all insights gained during the past ten years' developments in risk assessment methodologies. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that all external events had negligible contribution to core damage frequency except fires, seismic events, and external flooding. A limited scope analysis of the external flooding risk indicated that it is not a major risk contributor. Detailed analyses of the fire and seismic risks resulted in total (mean) core damage frequencies of 1.96E-5 and 4.60E-05 per reactor year, respectively. Detailed uncertainty analyses were performed for both fire and seismic risks. These results show that the core damage frequency profile for these events is comparable to that found for existing commercial power plants if proposed fixes are completed as part of the restart program. 108 refs., 85 figs., 80 tabs.

External human induced events in site evaluation for nuclear power plants. Safety guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

decommissioning of units located at the same site. In some cases other nuclear facilities (such as fuel fabrication units or fuel processing units) may be located at the same site and therefore should be considered in the hazard evaluation for the plant. While this Safety Guide deals primarily with site characterization stages, it also contains useful guidance for the site selection. preoperational and operational stages. Recommendations for the development of the design bases for design basis external human induced events (DBEHIE) are beyond the scope of the present publication. In this sense, the present Safety Guide concentrates on the definition of hazards for the site and on the general identification of major effects on the plant as a whole, according to the reference probabilistic or deterministic criteria, which are to be used in a design or in a design assessment framework. The next step in the full determination of the design basis for a specific plant is carried out in a design context, being intrinsically dependent on the layout and design. This additional step is therefore discussed in the series of standards relating to design, together with the detailed loading schemes and the design procedures, owing to their constitutive dependence. Hence, in this Safety Guide, the term 'design basis' should be understood as being limited mainly to that part of the determination of the design basis that is independent of any procedure for plant layout or design. In the selection between a deterministic and a probabilistic approach for hazard evaluation, several issues are determinant. These include: the availability of data for the site. The possibility of reliable extrapolation to lower excess values. The design approach to be adopted. The compatibility with national standards for hazard evaluation and design. And public acceptance issues. In this context, basic reference is made to a probabilistic approach for the site evaluation stage, while the derivation of single values on

Probabilistic methods used in NUSS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, J.; Giuliani, P.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic considerations are used implicitly or explicitly in all technical areas. In the NUSS codes and guides the two areas of design and siting are those where more use is made of these concepts. A brief review of the relevant documents in these two areas is made in this paper. It covers the documents where either probabilistic considerations are implied or where probabilistic approaches are recommended in the evaluation of situations and of events. In the siting guides the review mainly covers the area of seismic hydrological and external man-made events analysis, as well as some aspects of meteorological extreme events analysis. Probabilistic methods are recommended in the design guides but they are not made a requirement. There are several reasons for this, mainly lack of reliable data and the absence of quantitative safety limits or goals against which to judge the design analysis. As far as practical, engineering judgement should be backed up by quantitative probabilistic analysis. Examples are given and the concept of design basis as used in NUSS design guides is explained. (author)

Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reed, J.W.

1985-01-01

The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

Identification and analysis of external event combinations for Hanhikivi 1PRA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helander, Juho [Fennovoima Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

2017-03-15

Fennovoima's nuclear power plant, Hanhikivi 1, Pyhäjoki, Finland, is currently in design phase, and its construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 and electricity production in 2024. The objective of this paper is to produce a preliminary list of safety-significant external event combinations including preliminary probability estimates, to be used in the probabilistic risk assessment of Hanhikivi 1 plant. Starting from the list of relevant single events, the relevant event combinations are identified based on seasonal variation, preconditions related to different events, and dependencies (fundamental and cascade type) between events. Using this method yields 30 relevant event combinations of two events for the Hanhikivi site. The preliminary probability of each combination is evaluated, and event combinations with extremely low probability are excluded from further analysis. Event combinations of three or more events are identified by adding possible events to the remaining combinations of two events. Finally, 10 relevant combinations of two events and three relevant combinations of three events remain. The results shall be considered preliminary and will be updated after evaluating more detailed effects of different events on plant safety.

Event-Based Media Enrichment Using an Adaptive Probabilistic Hypergraph Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xueliang; Wang, Meng; Yin, Bao-Cai; Huet, Benoit; Li, Xuelong

2015-11-01

Nowadays, with the continual development of digital capture technologies and social media services, a vast number of media documents are captured and shared online to help attendees record their experience during events. In this paper, we present a method combining semantic inference and multimodal analysis for automatically finding media content to illustrate events using an adaptive probabilistic hypergraph model. In this model, media items are taken as vertices in the weighted hypergraph and the task of enriching media to illustrate events is formulated as a ranking problem. In our method, each hyperedge is constructed using the K-nearest neighbors of a given media document. We also employ a probabilistic representation, which assigns each vertex to a hyperedge in a probabilistic way, to further exploit the correlation among media data. Furthermore, we optimize the hypergraph weights in a regularization framework, which is solved as a second-order cone problem. The approach is initiated by seed media and then used to rank the media documents using a transductive inference process. The results obtained from validating the approach on an event dataset collected from EventMedia demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Estimation of frequency of occurrence of extreme natural external events of very high intensity on the base of (non)available data - Estimation of frequency of rare natural external events of very high intensity on the base of (non)available data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holy, J.; Kolar, L.; Jaros, M.; Hladky, M.; Mlady, O.

2014-01-01

The relatively frequent natural external events are usually of minor safety importance, because the NPPs are, with a significant safety margin, constructed and operated to withstand the effects of them. Thus, risk analysis is typically devoted to the natural events of exceptional intensity, which mostly have not occurred up to now, but which still could happen with some low probability, but critical consequences. Since 'direct' plant specific data providing evidence about such events to occur is not at disposal, special data treatment and extrapolation methods have to be employed for frequency estimation. The paper summarizes possible approach to estimation of rate event frequency by means of extrapolation from available data and points out the potential problems and challenges encountered during the analysis. The general framework is commented in the presentation, regarding the effects of choice of probabilistic distribution (Gumbel distribution versus the others), methods of work with data records (To take out some observations and why?) and analysis of quality of input data sets (To mix the data sets from different sources or not? To use 'old' observations?) In the first part of the paper, the approach to creation of NPP Dukovany deterministic design basis regarding natural external events, which was used in past, is summarized. The second, major part of the paper, is devoted to involvement of the ideas of probabilistic safety assessment into safety assessment of external hazards, including such specific topics as addressing the quality of available data records, discussion on possible violation of common assumptions expected to be valid by the rules of statistical data analysis and the ways how to fix it, the choice of probabilistic distribution modeling data variability etc. The examples of results achieved for NPP Dukovany site in Czech republic are given in the final section. This paper represents a coordinated effort with participation of experts and staff

Technical basis document for external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

OBERG, B.D.

2003-01-01

This document supports the Tank Farms Documented Safety Analysis and presents the technical basis for the FR-equencies of externally initiated accidents. The consequences of externally initiated events are discussed in other documents that correspond to the accident that was caused by the external event. The external events include aircraft crash, vehicle accident, range fire, and rail accident

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

1993-01-01

This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

Radiation protection criteria for cases of probabilistic disruptive events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beninson, D.J.

1985-01-01

The individual risk limitation for the case of probabilistic disruptive events is studied, when the radiation effects cease to be only stochastic; the proposed criterion is applied for the case of high level waste repositories. The protection's optimization results from the differential cost-benefit. More general procedures of decision theory that use probabilistically defined utility functions are considered for its calculation. These more general procedures can be applied also in cases where radiation exposures are only potential, to optimize the required level of safety features. It is shown that for disruptive events of low probability and large resulting consequences, the concept of 'expectation' of consequence can not be used in decision making, but that the use of probabilistically based utility functions can conceptually assure a consistent approach in deciding the required level of safety. The use of utility functions of logaritmic form to assign weights to consequences involving different loss of life is explored (M.E.L.) [es

Advanced nuclear plant design options to cope with external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-02-01

reactors from external event impacts, as well as to assist the designers of advanced NPPs in the definition of a consistent strategy of design and siting evaluation in relation to extreme external events. This publication was prepared through the collaboration of the designers of 14 advanced NPPs from Argentina, Canada, Germany, India, Japan, Lithuania, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and the United States of America, and was supported by a dedicated IAEA technical meeting convened in Vienna 14-19 November 2004. This publication also incorporates the contributions from several international experts, who provided descriptions of the state of the art approaches and methodologies for site safety assessment, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in relation to external events, and component qualification

Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

Science.gov (United States)

DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

Simple probabilistic method for relative risk evaluation of nuclear terrorism events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Songbai; Wu Jun

2006-01-01

On the basis of the event-tree and probability analysis methods, a probabilistic method of nuclear terrorism risk was built, and the risk of terrorism events was analyzed. With the statistical data for and hypothetical data for relative events, the relative probabilities of the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were obtained, as well as the relative risks of these four kinds of nuclear terrorism events were calculated by using this probabilistic method. The illustrated case show that the descending sequence of damages from the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events for single event is as following: nuclear explosive and improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and 'dirty bomb'. Under the hypothetical condition, the descending sequence of possibilities for the four kinds of nuclear terrorism events is as following: 'dirty bomb', nuclear facility attacked, improvised nuclear explosive and nuclear explosive, but the descending sequence of risks is as following: 'dirty bomb', improvised nuclear explosive, nuclear facility attacked, and nuclear explosive . (authors)

Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

1989-11-01

A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

Analysis of area events as part of probabilistic safety assessment for Romanian TRIGA SSR 14 MW reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mladin, D.; Stefan, I.

2005-01-01

The international experience has shown that the external events could be an important contributor to plant/ reactor risk. For this reason such events have to be included in the PSA studies. In the context of PSA for nuclear facilities, external events are defined as events originating from outside the plant, but with the potential to create an initiating event at the plant. To support plant safety assessment, PSA can be used to find methods for identification of vulnerable features of the plant and to suggest modifications in order to mitigate the impact of external events or the producing of initiating events. For that purpose, probabilistic assessment of area events concerning fire and flooding risk and impact is necessary. Due to the relatively large power level amongst research reactors, the approach to safety analysis of Romanian 14 MW TRIGA benefits from an ongoing PSA project. In this context, treatment of external events should be considered. The specific tasks proposed for the complete evaluation of area event analysis are: identify the rooms important for facility safety, determine a relative area event risk index for these rooms and a relative area event impact index if the event occurs, evaluate the rooms specific area event frequency, determine the rooms contribution to reactor hazard state frequencies, analyze power supply and room dependencies of safety components (as pumps, motor operated valves). The fire risk analysis methodology is based on Berry's method [1]. This approach provides a systematic procedure to carry out a relative index of different rooms. The factors, which affect the fire probability, are: personal presence in the room, number and type of ignition sources, type and area of combustibles, fuel available in the room, fuel location, and ventilation. The flooding risk analysis is based on the amount of piping in the room. For accuracy of the information regarding piping a facility walk-about is necessary. In case of flooding risk

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel in Olkiluoto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puukka, Tiia

2014-01-01

Due to natural disasters occurred in the world and the experiences perceived of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the particular knowledge of the role and influence of external hazards in the safety of interim storage of spent nuclear fuel has been emphasized. For that reason it is substantial that they are included in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the interim storage facility. This is also required by the Regulatory Guides issued by The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority STUK. To enhance safety culture and nuclear safety in Olkiluoto, The Finnish utility Teollisuuden Voima Oyj has recently completed an analysis of external natural (seismic events are studied as a separate analysis) and unintentional human-induced risks associated with the spent fuel pool cooling and decay heat removal systems as part of the full-scope PRA study for the interim storage of spent fuel (KPA store). The analysis had four goals to achieve: (1) to determine the definition of an initiating event in the context of the KPA store, (2) to identify all potential external hazards and hazard combinations, (3) to perform a qualitative screening analysis based on frequency-strength analysis and detailed plant responses analysis and (4) to model the hazards passed the screening analysis so that model can be used as a risk analysis tool in the risk informed decision making and operating procedures. The assessment carried out included the analysis of operation procedures of decay heat removal, the study of external hazards related initiating events included in the PRA of the OL1 and OL2 nuclear power plants and their dependencies on the initiating events of the KPA store. All external hazards related initiating events were modeled using fault tree linking method. The main result and conclusion of this study was that using the screening analysis, initiating events caused by external hazards that could lead to leakage of the spent fuel pools or that could pose a threat to the

Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

1997-12-31

A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

Initiating events in the safety probabilistic analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stasiulevicius, R.

1989-01-01

The importance of the initiating event in the probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear power plants are discussed and the basic procedures necessary for preparing reports, quantification and grouping of the events are described. The examples of initiating events with its occurence medium frequency, included those calculated for OCONEE reactor and Angra-1 reactor are presented. (E.G.)

Probabilistic analysis of canister inserts for spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dillstroem, Peter

2005-10-01

In this study, probabilistic analysis of canister inserts for spent nuclear fuel has been performed. The main conclusions are: 1. For the baseline case, the probability of failure is insignificant (∼ 2x10 -9 ). This is the case even though several conservative assumptions have been made both in underlying deterministic analysis and in the probabilistic analysis. 2. The initiation event dominates (over the local collapse event) when the external pressure is below the baseline case (p = 44 MPa). The local collapse event dominates when the external pressure is above the baseline case. 3. The local collapse event is strongly dependent of the assumed external pressure. 4. The analysis of collapse only considers the first local collapse event, total collapse of the insert will occur at a much higher pressure. 5. The resulting probabilities are more dependent on the assumption regarding the eccentricity of the cassette than the assumption regarding outer corner radius of the profiles for steel section cassette. The results indicate that the maximum allowed eccentricity should not be larger than 5 mm. 6. The probability of initiation of crack growth is calculated using a defect distribution where one assumes the existence of one crack-like defect. A simple scaling argument can be applied to consider the number of defects through the thickness

Procedure proposed for performance of a probabilistic safety analysis for the event of ''Air plane crash''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffmann, H.H.

1998-01-01

A procedures guide for a probabilistic safety analysis for the external event 'Air plane crash' has been prepared. The method is based on analysis done within the framework of PSA for German NPPs as well as on international documents. Both crashes of military air planes and commercial air planes contribute to the plant risk. For the determination of the plant related crash rate the air traffic will be divided into 3 different categories of air traffic: - The landing and takeoff phase, - the airlane traffic and waiting loop traffic, - the free air traffic, and the air planes into different types and weight classes. (orig./GL) [de

The Role of Working Memory in the Probabilistic Inference of Future Sensory Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Cashdollar, Nathan; Ruhnau, Philipp; Weisz, Nathan; Hasson, Uri

2017-05-01

The ability to represent the emerging regularity of sensory information from the external environment has been thought to allow one to probabilistically infer future sensory occurrences and thus optimize behavior. However, the underlying neural implementation of this process is still not comprehensively understood. Through a convergence of behavioral and neurophysiological evidence, we establish that the probabilistic inference of future events is critically linked to people's ability to maintain the recent past in working memory. Magnetoencephalography recordings demonstrated that when visual stimuli occurring over an extended time series had a greater statistical regularity, individuals with higher working-memory capacity (WMC) displayed enhanced slow-wave neural oscillations in the θ frequency band (4-8 Hz.) prior to, but not during stimulus appearance. This prestimulus neural activity was specifically linked to contexts where information could be anticipated and influenced the preferential sensory processing for this visual information after its appearance. A separate behavioral study demonstrated that this process intrinsically emerges during continuous perception and underpins a realistic advantage for efficient behavioral responses. In this way, WMC optimizes the anticipation of higher level semantic concepts expected to occur in the near future. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The SKI-project External events - Phase 2. Estimation of fire frequencies per plant and per building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1996-08-01

The Swedish-Finnish handbook for initiating event frequencies, I-Book, does not contain any fire frequencies. This matter of fact is not defensible considering the substantial risk contribution caused by fires. In the PSAs performed hitherto the initiating fire frequencies have been determined from case to case. Because data are usually very scarce in these areas it is very important to develop unique definitions, to systematically utilize both international and national experiences and to establish an appropriate statistical estimation method. It is also important to present the accumulated experience such that it can be used for different purposes, not only within PSA but also in the concrete fire preventive work. During phase 1 of the project External Events an inventory was made of existing methods for probabilistic fire analysis in general. During phase 2 of the project it was decided to initialize the work on a complementary handbook, called X-Book, in order to encompass the frequencies of system external events, i.e. initiating events that are caused by events occurring outside the system boundaries. In Version 1 of the X-Book the attention is mainly focussed on the estimation of initiating fire frequencies, per plant and per building. This estimation is basically founded on reports that the power companies have collected for this specific purpose. This report describes the statistical model and method that have been used in the estimation process. The methodological results achieved may, possibly after some modification, be applicable also to other types of system external events

Probabilistic analysis of canister inserts for spent nuclear fuel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dillstroem, Peter [Det Norske Veritas, Stockholm (Sweden)

2005-10-01

In this study, probabilistic analysis of canister inserts for spent nuclear fuel has been performed. The main conclusions are: 1. For the baseline case, the probability of failure is insignificant ({approx} 2x10{sup -9}). This is the case even though several conservative assumptions have been made both in underlying deterministic analysis and in the probabilistic analysis. 2. The initiation event dominates (over the local collapse event) when the external pressure is below the baseline case (p = 44 MPa). The local collapse event dominates when the external pressure is above the baseline case. 3. The local collapse event is strongly dependent of the assumed external pressure. 4. The analysis of collapse only considers the first local collapse event, total collapse of the insert will occur at a much higher pressure. 5. The resulting probabilities are more dependent on the assumption regarding the eccentricity of the cassette than the assumption regarding outer corner radius of the profiles for steel section cassette. The results indicate that the maximum allowed eccentricity should not be larger than 5 mm. 6. The probability of initiation of crack growth is calculated using a defect distribution where one assumes the existence of one crack-like defect. A simple scaling argument can be applied to consider the number of defects through the thickness.

MGR External Events Hazards Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, L.

1999-01-01

The purpose and objective of this analysis is to apply an external events Hazards Analysis (HA) to the License Application Design Selection Enhanced Design Alternative 11 [(LADS EDA II design (Reference 8.32))]. The output of the HA is called a Hazards List (HL). This analysis supersedes the external hazards portion of Rev. 00 of the PHA (Reference 8.1). The PHA for internal events will also be updated to the LADS EDA II design but under a separate analysis. Like the PHA methodology, the HA methodology provides a systematic method to identify potential hazards during the 100-year Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) operating period updated to reflect the EDA II design. The resulting events on the HL are candidates that may have potential radiological consequences as determined during Design Basis Events (DBEs) analyses. Therefore, the HL that results from this analysis will undergo further screening and analysis based on the criteria that apply during the performance of DBE analyses

Probabilistic risk assessment using event tables and the BNL [Brookhaven National Laboratory] event-tree analyzer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fullwood, R.R.; Shier, W.G.

1989-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is being used to study design alternatives for the advanced neutron source research reactor being designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for operation in the 1990s. Major communication paths between the designers and the safety analysts are accident discussions supported by event tables, event-tree graphics, and accident sequence probabilities. The BETA code used in conjunction with a word processor provides this linkage. This paper describes the process, features of the BETA, how it works, and some examples of usage

Probabilistic safety assessment for high-level waste tanks at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sullivan, L.H.; MacFarlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.

1996-01-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory has performed a comprehensive probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), including consideration of external events, for the 18 tank farms at the Hanford Tank Farm (HTF). This work was sponsored by the Department of Energy/Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Division (DOE/EM)

External flood probabilistic safety analysis of a coastal NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pisharady, Ajai S.; Chakraborty, M.K.; Acharya, Sourav; Roshan, A.D.; Bishnoi, L.R.

2015-01-01

External events pose a definitive challenge to safety of NPP, solely due to their ability to induce common cause failures. Flooding incidents at Le Blayais NPP, France, Fort Calhoun NPP, USA and Fukushima Daiichi have pointed to the importance of external flooding as an important contributor to NPP risk. A methodology developed for external flood PSA of a coastal NPP vulnerable to flooding due to tsunami, cyclonic storm and intense local precipitation is presented in this paper. Different tasks for EFPSA has been identified along with general approach for completing each task

Defining initiating events for purposes of probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This document is primarily directed towards technical staff involved in the performance or review of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). It highlights different approaches and provides typical examples useful for defining the Initiating Events (IE). The document also includes the generic initiating event database, containing about 300 records taken from about 30 plant specific PSAs. In addition to its usefulness during the actual performance of a PSA, the generic IE database is of the utmost importance for peer reviews of PSAs, such as the IAEA's International Peer Review Service (IPERS) where reference to studies on similar NPPs is needed. 60 refs, figs and tabs

Hybrid instrument applied to human reliability study in event of loss of external electric power in a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, Eduardo Ferraz

2015-01-01

The study projects in highly complex installations involves robust modeling, supported by conceptual and mathematical tools, to carry out systematic research and structured the different risk scenarios that can lead to unwanted events from occurring equipment failures or human errors. In the context of classical modeling, the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) seeks to provide qualitative and quantitative information about the project particularity and their operational facilities, including the identification of factors or scenarios that contribute to the risk and consequent comparison options for increasing safety. In this context, the aim of the thesis is to develop a hybrid instrument (CPP-HI) innovative, from the integrated modeling techniques of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), concepts of Human Reliability Analysis and Probabilistic Composition of Preferences (PCP). In support of modeling and validation of the CPP-HI, a simulation was performed on a triggering event 'Loss of External Electric Power' - PEEE, in a Nuclear Power plant. The results were simulated in a virtual environment (sensitivity analysis) and are robust to the study of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the PSA. (author)

Probabilistic Dynamics for Integrated Analysis of Accident Sequences considering Uncertain Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robertas Alzbutas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The analytical/deterministic modelling and simulation/probabilistic methods are used separately as a rule in order to analyse the physical processes and random or uncertain events. However, in the currently used probabilistic safety assessment this is an issue. The lack of treatment of dynamic interactions between the physical processes on one hand and random events on the other hand causes the limited assessment. In general, there are a lot of mathematical modelling theories, which can be used separately or integrated in order to extend possibilities of modelling and analysis. The Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics (TPD and its augmented version based on the concept of stimulus and delay are introduced for the dynamic reliability modelling and the simulation of accidents in hybrid (continuous-discrete systems considering uncertain events. An approach of non-Markovian simulation and uncertainty analysis is discussed in order to adapt the Stimulus-Driven TPD for practical applications. The developed approach and related methods are used as a basis for a test case simulation in view of various methods applications for severe accident scenario simulation and uncertainty analysis. For this and for wider analysis of accident sequences the initial test case specification is then extended and discussed. Finally, it is concluded that enhancing the modelling of stimulated dynamics with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis allows the detailed simulation of complex system characteristics and representation of their uncertainty. The developed approach of accident modelling and analysis can be efficiently used to estimate the reliability of hybrid systems and at the same time to analyze and possibly decrease the uncertainty of this estimate.

Recent developments in the external hazard risk assessment in Ukraine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Ukrainian legislation prescribes safety analysis reports for all operating and future NPPs. Apart from main report they must include: safety analysis supplement; design basis accident analysis; beyond design basis accident analysis; probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); technical; substantiation of safety. Regulatory requirements to PSA contents cover the criteria for core damage frequency and large radioactive release frequency. Initiating events taken into account are internal events; internal hazards and external hazards. External hazards to be considered are seismic events, external fires, external floods, extreme ambient temperatures, aircraft crashes, etc. Current status of PSA development is related to operating WWER-440 and WWER-1000 NPPs and NPPs under construction. This presentation describes in detail the external hazard risk assessment for South Ukraine including methodology applied and expected future activities

Estimation of initiating event frequency for external flood events by extreme value theorem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chowdhury, Sourajyoti; Ganguly, Rimpi; Hari, Vibha

2017-01-01

External flood is an important common cause initiating event in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It may potentially lead to severe core damage (SCD) by first causing the failure of the systems required for maintaining the heat sinks and then by contributing to failures of engineered systems designed to mitigate such failures. The sample NPP taken here is twin 220 MWe Indian standard pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) situated inland. A comprehensive in-house Level-1 internal event PSA for full power had already been performed. External flood assessment was further conducted in area of external hazard risk assessment in response to post-Fukushima measures taken in nuclear industries. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate initiating event (IE) frequency for external flood events for the sample inland Indian NPP. General extreme value (GEV) theory based on maximum likelihood method (MLM) and order statistics approach (OSA) is used to analyse the rainfall data for the site. Thousand-year return level and necessary return periods for extreme rainfall are evaluated. These results along with plant-specific topographical calculations quantitatively establish that external flooding resulting from upstream dam break, river flooding and heavy rainfall (flash flood) would be unlikely for the sample NPP in consideration.

Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide, Sections 8-12. Volume 2, Rev. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCann, M.; Reed, J.; Ruger, C.; Shiu, K.; Teichmann, T.; Unione, A.; Youngblood, R.

1985-08-01

A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. It will be revised as comments are received, and as experience is gained from its use. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of issues affecting reactor safety. The first volume of the guide describes the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant (i.e., intrinsic to plant operation) and from loss of off-site electric power. The scope includes human reliability analysis, a determination of the importance of various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for key accident sequences. This second volume deals with the treatment of the so-called external events including seismic disturbances, fires, floods, etc. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance). This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are valuable for regulatory decision making. For internal events, methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study. For external events, more explicit guidance is given

Safety assessment of multi-unit NPP sites subject to external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samaddar, Sujit; Hibino, Kenta; Coman, Ovidiu

2014-01-01

This paper presents a framework for conducting a probabilistic safety assessment of multi-unit sites against external events. The treatment of multiple hazard on a unit, interaction between units, implementation of severe accident measures, human reliability, environmental conditions, metric of risk for both reactor and non-reactor sources, integration of risk and responses and many such important factors need to be addressed within the context of this framework. The framework facilitates the establishment of a comprehensive methodology that can be applied internationally to the peer review of safety assessment of multi-unit sites under the impact of multiple external hazards. In summary, it can be said that the site safety assessment for a multi-unit site will be quite complex and need to start with individual unit risk assessments, these need to be combined considering the interactions between units and their responses, and the fragilities of the installations established considering the combined demands from all interactions. Using newly established risk metric the risk can then be integrated for the overall site. Fig. 2 shows schematically such a proposal. Much work has to done and the IAEA has established a working group that is systematically establishing the structure and process to incorporate the many issues that are a part of a multi-unit site safety assessment. (authors)

Probabilistic safety analysis on an SBWR 72 hours after the initiating event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dominguez Bautista, M.T.; Peinador Veira, M.

1996-01-01

Passive plants, including SBWRs, are designed to carry out safety functions with passive systems during the first 72 hours after the initiation event with no need for manual actions or external support. After this period, some recovery actions are required to enable the passive systems to continue performing their safety functions. The study was carried out by the INITEC-Empresarios Agrupados Joint Venture within the framework of the international group collaborating with GE on this project. Its purpose has been to assess, by means of probabilistic criteria, the importance to safety of each of these support actions, in order to define possible requirements to be considered in the design in respect of said recovery actions. In brief, the methodology developed for this objective consists of (1) quantifying success event trees from the PSA up to 72 hours, (2) determining the actions required in each sequence to maintain Steady State after 72 hours, (3) identifying available alternative core cooling methods in each sequence, (4) establishing the approximate (order of magnitude) realizability of each alternative method, (5) calculating the frequency of core damage as a function of the failure probability of post-72-hour actions and (6) analysing the importance of post-72-hour actions. The results of this analysis permit the establishment, right from the conceptual design phase, of the requirements that will arise to ensure these actions in the long term, enhancing their reliability and preventing the accident from continuing beyond this period. (Author)

Protection of nuclear power plants against external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suetterlin, L.

1978-01-01

The different aspects for the selection of external events to be accounted for in designing nuclear power plants and in defining load assumptions are illustrated: 1) In case of earthquake the severest possible events according to the state of science and technology are assumed. 2) For events where it is not or only to a certain extent possible to apply this method, e.g. in the load case airplane crash, load assumptions are defined in a combined probabilitic-deterministic way. By the example of plant protection, it is shown that by integrating all measures for protecting against interference of third parties (sabotage) or other external events, optimum protection concepts may be achieved. In all considerations on interference of third parties or other external events, one has to take into account that absolute protection is not possible. Nevertheless, it may be confirmed that nuclear power plants not only have a much higher level of protection than other, non-nuclear plants with equal or even higher potential hazard, but also that they meet the requirement not to increase significantly the current risk of society. (orig./HP) [de

Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide. Sections 1-7 and appendices. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.; Buslik, A.J.; Cho, N.Z.

1985-08-01

A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. It will be revised as comments are received, and as experience is gained from its use. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of issues affecting reactor safety. This first volume of the guide describes the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant (i.e., intrinsic to plant operation) and from loss of off-site electric power. The scope includes human reliability analysis, a determination of the importance of various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for key accident sequences. The second volume deals with the treatment of the so-called external events including seismic disturbances, fires, floods, etc. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance). This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are valuable for regulatory decision making. For internal events, methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study. For external events, more explicit guidance is given

Evaluation of external hazards to nuclear power plants in the United States: Other external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, C.Y.; Prassinos, P.G.

1989-02-01

In support of implementation of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Severe Accident Policy, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has performed a study of the risk of core damage to nuclear power plants in the United States due to ''other external events.'' The broad objective has been to gain an understanding of whether ''other external events'' (the hazards not covered by previous reports) are among the major potential accident initiators that may pose a threat of severe reactor core damage or of large radioactive release to the environment from the reactor. The ''other external events'' covered in this report are nearby industrial/military facility accidents, on site hazardous material storage accidents, severe temperature transients, severe weather storms, lightning strikes, external fires, extraterrestrial activity, volcanic activity, earth movement, and abrasive windstorms. The analysis was based on two figures-of-merit, one based on core damage frequency and the other based on the frequency of large radioactive releases. 37 refs., 8 tabs

Evaluating sub-seasonal skill in probabilistic forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and associated extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Subramanian, A. C.; Lavers, D.; Matsueda, M.; Shukla, S.; Cayan, D. R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - elongated plumes of intense moisture transport - are a primary source of hydrological extremes, water resources and impactful weather along the West Coast of North America and Europe. There is strong demand in the water management, societal infrastructure and humanitarian sectors for reliable sub-seasonal forecasts, particularly of extreme events, such as floods and droughts so that actions to mitigate disastrous impacts can be taken with sufficient lead-time. Many recent studies have shown that ARs in the Pacific and the Atlantic are modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability. Leveraging the improved understanding of how these large-scale climate modes modulate the ARs in these two basins, we use the state-of-the-art multi-model forecast systems such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database to help inform and assess the probabilistic prediction of ARs and related extreme weather events over the North American and European West Coasts. We will present results from evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation and AR activity at the sub-seasonal scale. In particular, results from the comparison of two winters (2015-16 and 2016-17) will be shown, winters which defied canonical El Niño teleconnection patterns over North America and Europe. We further extend this study to analyze probabilistic forecast skill of AR events in these two basins and the variability in forecast skill during certain regimes of large-scale climate modes.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Natural External Hazards Including Earthquakes. Workshop Proceedings, Prague, Czech Republic, 17-20 June 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Dai-ichi accident triggered discussions about the significance of external hazards and their treatment in safety analyses. In addition, stress tests results have shown vulnerabilities and potential of cliff-edge effects in plant responses to external hazards and have identified possibilities and priorities for improvements and safety measures' implementation at specific sites and designs. In order to address these issues and provide relevant conclusions and recommendations to CSNI and CNRA, the CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) directed, in cooperation with the CSNI Working Group on Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures (WGIAGE), a workshop hosted by UJV Rez. The key objectives of the workshop were to collect information from the OECD member states on methods and approaches being used, and experience gained in probabilistic safety assessment of natural external hazards, as well as to support the fulfillment of the CSNI task on 'PSA of natural external hazards including earthquakes'. These objectives are described more in detail in the introduction in Chapter 1 of this report. The WGRISK activities preceding the workshop and leading to the decision to organize it are described in Chapter 2 of this report. The focus of the workshop was on external events PSA for nuclear power plants, including all modes of operation. The workshop scope was generally limited to external, natural hazards, including those hazards where the distinction between natural and man-made hazards is not sharp. The detailed information about the presentations, discussions, and results of the workshop is presented in Chapter 3 of this report. Some general conclusions were agreed on during the workshop, which are presented in the following paragraphs. - The lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactor accidents and related actions at the national, regional, and global level have emphasized the importance to assess risks associated (authors) with

Review IPEEE C.N. external event Vandellos II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.; Beltran, F.; Salvat, M.; Pifarre, D.; Canadell, F.; Aleman, A.

2010-01-01

Within the process of maintaining and updating the risk analysis of CN Vandellos II, results from the review of the study of vulnerability of the plant against severe accidents caused by external events (Individual Plant Examination on Extornal Events, IPEEE).

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugino, Hideharu; Sakagami, Masaharu; Ebisawa, Katsumi; Korenaga, Mariko

2011-01-01

In the area in front of Nankai trough, tsunami wave height may increase if tsunamis attacking from some wave sources overlap because of time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough. To evaluation tsunami risk of the important facilities located in front of Nankai trough, we proposed the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment considering uncertainty on time-lag of seismic event on Nankai trough and we evaluated the influence that the time-lag gave to tsunami hazard at the some representative points. (author)

10 CFR 72.94 - Design basis external man-induced events.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Design basis external man-induced events. 72.94 Section 72... WASTE Siting Evaluation Factors § 72.94 Design basis external man-induced events. (a) The region must be examined for both past and present man-made facilities and activities that might endanger the proposed...

External events analysis for experimental fusion facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1990-01-01

External events are those off-normal events that threaten facilities either from outside or inside the building. These events, such as floods, fires, and earthquakes, are among the leading risk contributors for fission power plants, and the nature of fusion facilities indicates that they may also lead fusion risk. This paper gives overviews of analysis methods, references good analysis guidance documents, and gives design tips for mitigating the effects of floods and fires, seismic events, and aircraft impacts. Implications for future fusion facility siting are also discussed. Sites similar to fission plant sites are recommended. 46 refs

An overview-probabilistic safety analysis for research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Jinlin; Peng Changhong

2015-01-01

For long-term application, Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) has proved to be a valuable tool for improving the safety and reliability of power reactors. In China, 'Nuclear safety and radioactive pollution prevention 'Twelfth Five Year Plan' and the 2020 vision' raises clearly that: to develop probabilistic safety analysis and aging evaluation for research reactors. Comparing with the power reactors, it reveals some specific features in research reactors: lower operating power, lower coolant temperature and pressure, etc. However, the core configurations may be changed very often and human actions play an important safety role in research reactors due to its specific experimental requirement. As a result, there is a necessary to conduct the PSA analysis of research reactors. This paper discusses the special characteristics related to the structure and operation and the methods to develop the PSA of research reactors, including initiating event analysis, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, dependent failure analysis, human reliability analysis and quantification as well as the experimental and external event evaluation through the investigation of various research reactors and their PSAs home and abroad, to provide the current situation and features of research reactors PSAs. (author)

IPEEE review of external events of the Asco I nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aleman, A.; Canadell, F.; Beltran, F.; Pifarre, D.; Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.

2012-01-01

During the risk analysis update of Asco NPP (2010), it has been carried out a review of the vulnerabilities against severe accidents caused by external events (individual Plant Examination of external Events, IPEEE). The assessment has includent analysis of accidents in industrial and military facilities nearby and transportation accidents (i.e., rail, road and aircraft impact) release of hazardous materials on site, external flooding, turbine missiles and strong winds. (Author)

External events analysis in PSA studies for Czech NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holy, J.; Hustak, S.; Kolar, L.; Jaros, M.; Hladky, M.; Mlady, O.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to summarize current status of natural external hazards analysis in the PSA projects maintained in Czech Republic for both Czech NPPs - Dukovany and Temelin. The focus of the presentation is put upon the basic milestones in external event analysis effort - identification of external hazards important for Czech NPPs sites, screening out of the irrelevant hazards, modeling of plant response to the initiating events, including the basic activities regarding vulnerability and fragility analysis (supported with on-site analysis), quantification of accident sequences, interpretation of results and development of measures decreasing external events risk. The following external hazards are discussed in the paper, which have been addressed during several last years in PSA projects for Czech NPPs: 1)seismicity, 2)extremely low temperature 3)extremely high temperature 4)extreme wind 5)extreme precipitation (water, snow) 6)transport of dangerous substances (as an example of man-made hazard with some differences identified in comparison with natural hazards) 7)other hazards, which are not considered as very important for Czech NPPs, were screened out in the initial phase of the analysis, but are known as potential problem areas abroad. The paper is a result of coordinated effort with participation of experts and staff from engineering support organization UJV Rez, a.s. and NPPs located in Czech Republic - Dukovany and Temelin. (authors)

Probabilistic safety analysis for fire events for the NPP Isar 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmaltz, H.; Hristodulidis, A.

2007-01-01

The 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Fire Events' (Fire-PSA KKI2) for the NPP Isar 2 was performed in addition to the PSA for full power operation and considers all possible events which can be initiated due to a fire. The aim of the plant specific Fire-PSA was to perform a quantitative assessment of fire events during full power operation, which is state of the art. Based on simplistic assumptions referring to the fire induced failures, the influence of system- and component-failures on the frequency of the core damage states was analysed. The Fire-PSA considers events, which will result due to fire-induced failures of equipment on the one hand in a SCRAM and on the other hand in events, which will not have direct operational effects but because of the fire-induced failure of safety related installations the plant will be shut down as a precautionary measure. These events are considered because they may have a not negligible influence on the frequency of core damage states in case of failures during the plant shut down because of the reduced redundancy of safety related systems. (orig.)

Probabilistic delay differential equation modeling of event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger

2016-08-01

"Dynamic causal models" (DCMs) are a promising approach in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data due to their biophysical interpretability and their consolidation of functional-segregative and functional-integrative propositions. In this theoretical note we are concerned with the DCM framework for electroencephalographically recorded event-related potentials (ERP-DCM). Intuitively, ERP-DCM combines deterministic dynamical neural mass models with dipole-based EEG forward models to describe the event-related scalp potential time-series over the entire electrode space. Since its inception, ERP-DCM has been successfully employed to capture the neural underpinnings of a wide range of neurocognitive phenomena. However, in spite of its empirical popularity, the technical literature on ERP-DCM remains somewhat patchy. A number of previous communications have detailed certain aspects of the approach, but no unified and coherent documentation exists. With this technical note, we aim to close this gap and to increase the technical accessibility of ERP-DCM. Specifically, this note makes the following novel contributions: firstly, we provide a unified and coherent review of the mathematical machinery of the latent and forward models constituting ERP-DCM by formulating the approach as a probabilistic latent delay differential equation model. Secondly, we emphasize the probabilistic nature of the model and its variational Bayesian inversion scheme by explicitly deriving the variational free energy function in terms of both the likelihood expectation and variance parameters. Thirdly, we detail and validate the estimation of the model with a special focus on the explicit form of the variational free energy function and introduce a conventional nonlinear optimization scheme for its maximization. Finally, we identify and discuss a number of computational issues which may be addressed in the future development of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RA-6 reactor's probabilistic safety evaluation. Identification and selection of starting events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kay, J.; Chiossi, C.; Felizia, E.; Vallerga, H.; Kalejman, G.; Navarro, R.; Caruso, G.J.

1987-01-01

A summary of the 'Identification and selection of starting events' stage of the previous probabilistic safety evaluation of RA-6 reactor is presented. This evaluation was performed to verify if the safety criteria required for the licensing of RA-6 are met and to promote the diffusion of its meaning and usefulness with educational purposes. At this stage the starting events of RA-6 are determined and the probability that such events occur is calculated. The identification and selection of starting events is performed in two steps: determination of proposed starting events and determination of postulated starting events. The proposed starting events are determined by means of the master logic diagram (MLD) method, while the postulated starting events are obtained by grouping the proposed starting events. The simplifying hypothesis required for the application of MLD to the reactor are also formulated. The probability that the proposed and postulated starting events occur is afterwards calculated, adopting different fault models, in accordance with the nature of events that are considered. Conservative hypothesis on the characteristics of these events and the uncertainty of parameter values of those models are also formulated. The numerical values of the above mentioned probabilities are obtained by giving the parameters suitable values that are extracted from specialized publications. (Author)

External man-induced events on nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paganini, C.E.

1982-01-01

These notes for the postgraduate course on Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety deal with the effects produced by some human activities on the siting and design of a nuclear installation. The existing activities, as well as the foreseen or foreseeable future ones are evaluated. In the first place, the potential sources of events are identified and classified in two categories: stationary and mobile, and the events are classified in five groups: 1) Aircraft crash; 2) Chemical explosions; 3) Discharge of dangerous fluids (explosive, toxic or corrosive); 4) Fire, and 5) Sabotage, terrorism, guerrillas. Then, the effects which may result from these events and affect the nuclear installation are studied: 1) pressure waves; 2) Impact of missiles; 3) Heat, fire; 4) Smoke and dust; 5) Gas or inflammable and/or explosive dust clouds; 6) Toxic and/or corrosive gases and liquids; 7) Ground shaking; 8) Flooding or lack of water; 9) Foundations failure or collapse. Next, the methods for making a deterministic and/or a probabilistic study (or both) are indicated for each event considered, and from these studies the ''screening'' values which allow to determine if an event can be rejected or must be considered are established. For this second case, the method for obtaining the ''design event'' that shall serve as a basis for the design of the plant is indicated. (M.E.L.) [es

Analysis of external flooding events occurred in foreign nuclear power plant sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Dan; Cai Hankun; Xiao Zhi; An Hongzhen; Mao Huan

2013-01-01

This paper screens and studies 17 external flooding events occurred in foreign NPP sites, analysis the characteristic of external flooding events based on the source of the flooding, the impact on the building, systems and equipment, as well as the threat to nuclear safety. Furthermore, based on the experiences and lessons learned from Fukushima nuclear accident relating to external flooding and countermeasures carried out in the world, some suggestions are proposed in order to improve external flooding response capacity for Chinese NPPs. (authors)

Normally occurring environmental and behavioral influences on gene activity: from central dogma to probabilistic epigenesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gottlieb, G

1998-10-01

The central dogma of molecular biology holds that "information" flows from the genes to the structure of the proteins that the genes bring about through the formula DNA-->RNA-->Protein. In this view, a set of master genes activates the DNA necessary to produce the appropriate proteins that the organism needs during development. In contrast to this view, probabilistic epigenesis holds that necessarily there are signals from the internal and external environment that activate DNA to produce the appropriate proteins. To support this view, a substantial body of evidence is reviewed showing that external environmental influences on gene activation are normally occurring events in a large variety of organisms, including humans. This demonstrates how genes and environments work together to produce functional organisms, thus extending the author's model of probabilistic epigenesis.

Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Technical Exchange Meeting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2013-09-01

During FY13, the INL developed an advanced SMR PRA framework which has been described in the report Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Technical Framework Specification, INL/EXT-13-28974 (April 2013). In this framework, the various areas are considered: Probabilistic models to provide information specific to advanced SMRs Representation of specific SMR design issues such as having co-located modules and passive safety features Use of modern open-source and readily available analysis methods Internal and external events resulting in impacts to safety All-hazards considerations Methods to support the identification of design vulnerabilities Mechanistic and probabilistic data needs to support modeling and tools In order to describe this framework more fully and obtain feedback on the proposed approaches, the INL hosted a technical exchange meeting during August 2013. This report describes the outcomes of that meeting.

Procedures for the external event core damage frequency analyses for NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Lambright, J.A.

1990-11-01

This report presents methods which can be used to perform the assessment of risk due to external events at nuclear power plants. These methods were used to perform the external events risk assessments for the Surry and Peach Bottom nuclear power plants as part of the NRC-sponsored NUREG-1150 risk assessments. These methods apply to the full range of hazards such as earthquakes, fires, floods, etc. which are collectively known as external events. The methods described in this report have been developed under NRC sponsorship and represent, in many cases, both advancements and simplifications over techniques that have been used in past years. They also include the most up-to-date data bases on equipment seismic fragilities, fire occurrence frequencies and fire damageability thresholds. The methods described here are based on making full utilization of the power plant systems logic models developed in the internal events analyses. By making full use of the internal events models one obtains an external event analysis that is consistent both in nomenclature and in level of detail with the internal events analyses, and in addition, automatically includes all the appropriate random and tests/maintenance unavailabilities as appropriate. 50 refs., 9 figs., 11 tabs

Treatment of external hazards in probabilistic safety assessment for nuclear power plants. A Safety Practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This Safety Practice provides guidance on conducting a PSA for external hazards in nuclear power plants. Emphasis is placed on the procedural steps of the PSA rather then on the details of corresponding methods. The publication is intended to assist technical persons managing or performing PSAs. A particular aim is to promote a standardized framework, terminology and form of documentation for external hazards PSA so as to facilitate external review of the results of such studies. For those specialists who are already involved in related studies, such as a Level 1 PSA dealing only with internal events, this publication provides an indication of how additional external events could be integrated into an existing PSA. 16 refs, 5 figs, 2 tabs

IPEEE Review of other external events of the NPP Asco

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canadell, F.; Aleman, A.; Beltran, F.; Pifarre, D.; Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.

2011-01-01

Within the process of maintaining and updating the risk analysis of the NPP Asco, results from the review of the vulnerability study of the plant against severe accidents caused by external success (Individual Plant Examination of External Events, IPEEE).

Comparison of event tree, fault tree and Markov methods for probabilistic safety assessment and application to accident mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, H.; Harris, M.J.; Hall, S.F.

1992-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is used extensively in the nuclear industry. The main stages of PSA and the traditional event tree method are described. Focussing on hydrogen explosions, an event tree model is compared to a novel Markov model and a fault tree, and unexpected implication for accident mitigation is revealed. (author)

Diablo Canyon internal events PRA [Probabilistic Risk Assessment] review: Methodology and findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bozoki, G.; Sabek, M.

1990-01-01

The review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCRPA) incorporated some new and innovative approaches. These were necessitated by the unprecedented size, scope and level of detail of the DCRPA, which was submitted to the NRC for licensing purposes. This paper outlines the elements of the internal events portion of the review citing selected findings to illustrate the various approaches employed. The paper also provides a description of the extensive and comprehensive importance analysis applied by BNL to the DCRPA model. Importance calculations included: top event/function level; individual split fractions; pair importances between frontline-support and support-support systems; system importance by initiator; and others. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the effectiveness of the applied methodology. 3 refs., 5 tabs

The significance of water hammer events to public dose from reactor accidents: A probabilistic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amico, P.J.; Ferrell, W.L.; Rubin, M.P.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic assessment was made of the effects on public dose of water hammer events in LWRs. The analysis utilized actual historical water hammer data to determine if the water hammer events contributed either to system failure rates or initiating event frequencies. Representative PRAs were used to see if changes in initiating events and/or system failures caused by water hammer resulted in new values for the dominant sequences in the PRAs. New core melt frequencies were determined and carried out to the subsequent increase in public dose. It is concluded that water hammer is not a significant problem with respect to risk to the public for either BWRs or PWRs. (orig./HP)

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lohmann

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D.

2018-05-01

Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.

From IPE [individual plant examinations] to IPEEE [individual plant examination of external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newton, I.M.

1994-01-01

In addition to doing individual plant examinations (IPEs) which assess risk to nuclear plants from internal factors, all US plants are now also required to analyse external events and submit an IPEEE (Individual Plant Examination of External Events). Specifically, the IPEEEs require an assessment of plant-specific risks from the following types of initiating events: seismic events; fire; wind; tornadoes; flooding; accidents involving transportation or nearby facilities, such as oil refineries. (author)

A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic event reliabilities. • It implements the concepts of failure possibilities and fuzzy sets. • Experts evaluate basic event failure possibilities using qualitative words. • Triangular fuzzy numbers mathematically represent qualitative failure possibilities. • It is a very good alternative for conventional reliability approach. - Abstract: Fault tree analysis has been widely utilized as a tool for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. This analysis can be completed only if all basic events of the system fault tree have their quantitative failure rates or failure probabilities. However, it is difficult to obtain those failure data due to insufficient data, environment changing or new components. This study proposes a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of system fault trees whose failure precise probability distributions of their lifetime to failures are not available. It applies the concept of failure possibilities to qualitatively evaluate basic events and the concept of fuzzy sets to quantitatively represent the corresponding failure possibilities. To demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the actual basic event failure probabilities collected from the operational experiences of the David–Besse design of the Babcock and Wilcox reactor protection system fault tree are used to benchmark the failure probabilities generated by the proposed approach. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy-based reliability approach arises as a suitable alternative for the conventional probabilistic reliability approach when basic events do not have the corresponding quantitative historical failure data for determining their reliability characteristics. Hence, it overcomes the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

Probabilistic safety assessment for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacFarlane, D.R.; Stack, D.S.; Kindinger, J.P.; Deremer, R.K.

1995-01-01

This paper gives results from the first comprehensive level-3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), including consideration of external events, for the Hanford tank farm (HTF). This work was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy/Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Division (DOE/EM). At the HTF, there are 177 underground tanks in 18 separate tank farms containing accumulated liquid/sludge/saltcake radioactive wastes from 50 yr of weapons materials production activities. The total waste volume is ∼60 million gal, containing ∼200 million Ci of radioactivity

Notes on the regional workshop on modelling of external hazards. Working material. V. II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

This book is a collection of reports presented by the participants of the TC project dealing with probabilistic safety assessment of external events mostly earthquakes and floods. Some of the papers deal with air crush events as well. Experiences and developments of the PSA in participating countries are at different stages of implementation and need upgrading and improvements. The majority of the NPPs mentioned are WWER type NPPs

Development of Quantitative Framework for Event Significance Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Durk Hun; Kim, Min Chull; Kim, Inn Seock

2010-01-01

There is an increasing trend in quantitative evaluation of the safety significance of operational events using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) technique. An integrated framework for evaluation of event significance has been developed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS), which consists of an assessment hierarchy and a number of matrices. The safety significance of various events, e.g., internal or external initiating events that occurred during at-power or shutdown conditions, can be quantitatively analyzed using this framework, and then, the events rated according to their significance. This paper briefly describes the basic concept of the integrated quantitative framework for evaluation of event significance, focusing on the assessment hierarchy

Millstone 3 risk evaluation report. An overall review and evaluation of the Millstone Unit 3 probabilistic safety study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, G.; Barrett, R.; Buslik, A.

1986-06-01

In 1981, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requested Northeast Utilities to perform a design-specific probabilistic safety study (PSS) for Millstone Nuclear Power Station, Unit No. 3 (Millstone 3). In 1983, Northeast Utilities submitted the Millstone 3 Probabilistic Safety Study for review by the NRC staff. The NRC staff prepared the Millstone 3 Risk Evaluation Report, which discusses the findings regarding the PSS. The PSS estimates that the mean annual core damage frequency due to internal and external events is 5 x 10 -5 and 2 x 10 -5 , respectively. The NRC staff's Risk Evaluation Report estimates that the mean annual core damage frequency is about 2 x 10 -4 for internal events and lies between 1 x 10 -5 and 2 x 10 -4 for external events. The NRC staff estimates that station blackout dominates internal and external event core damage frequencies. The staff recommends that Northeast Utilities perform an engineering analysis on upgrading the diesel generator lube oil cooler anchorage system and on adding a manually operated, AC-independent containment spray system. The staff also recommends that Northeast Utilities prepare two emergency procedures (loss of room cooling and relay chatter due to an earthquake) to help reduce uncertainties. (Subsequent to the completion of this document, Northeast Utilities and the NRC staff have continued a dialogue regarding station blackout from events other than earthquakes. Both Northeast Utilities and the staff have performed additional evaluations, which have drawn their results closer together. Final requirements, if any, for the prevention or mitigation of station blackout from events other than earthquakes have not yet been determined.) 26 refs., 16 tabs

Extreme external events in the design and assessment of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-03-01

The analysis of feedback experience from the operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the past 20 years shows few cases of degradation of the plant safety initiated by external events. However, when these have occurred, the consequences have been serious, involving challenges to the defence in depth of the plant. Part of the problem involves the definition of the design basis parameters for some scenarios and differences among regulators on the methods for the protection of operational NPPs in relation to external events. This results in different engineering practices in Member States for the siting and design of NPPs. In the framework of the present revision of the IAEA safety standards on siting and design of NPPs, many initiatives have been implemented by the IAEA in recent years aimed at a systematic analysis of engineering practices in Member States. The most recent event in this connection was a Technical Committee Meeting (TCM) on Structural Safety of NPPs in Relation to Extreme External Loads, organized with the specific objective of evaluating the state of the art of NPP design in relation to external events. Such an analysis provided a technical background for the development of a common technical basis for an integrated approach in site evaluation, design and operation in relation to extreme external events. The scope included new and existing plants, as they are required to meet the same general safety principles, in spite of their peculiarities. The objective of this publication is to provide a technical background to drive regulators, plant owners and designers in the definition of a consistent strategy in selected safety issues on site evaluation, design and operation in relation to extreme external events. This publication is also of support to the IAEA in the development of safety standards since many Safety Guides dealing with related topics are under periodic review. Four major tasks were identified to comply with these general objectives

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Results and insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1993-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1. 6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The probability of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquake) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 . overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double, vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riyadi, Eko H.

2014-01-01

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events

Integration of anatomical and external response mappings explains crossing effects in tactile localization: A probabilistic modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Badde, Stephanie; Heed, Tobias; Röder, Brigitte

2016-04-01

To act upon a tactile stimulus its original skin-based, anatomical spatial code has to be transformed into an external, posture-dependent reference frame, a process known as tactile remapping. When the limbs are crossed, anatomical and external location codes are in conflict, leading to a decline in tactile localization accuracy. It is unknown whether this impairment originates from the integration of the resulting external localization response with the original, anatomical one or from a failure of tactile remapping in crossed postures. We fitted probabilistic models based on these diverging accounts to the data from three tactile localization experiments. Hand crossing disturbed tactile left-right location choices in all experiments. Furthermore, the size of these crossing effects was modulated by stimulus configuration and task instructions. The best model accounted for these results by integration of the external response mapping with the original, anatomical one, while applying identical integration weights for uncrossed and crossed postures. Thus, the model explained the data without assuming failures of remapping. Moreover, performance differences across tasks were accounted for by non-individual parameter adjustments, indicating that individual participants' task adaptation results from one common functional mechanism. These results suggest that remapping is an automatic and accurate process, and that the observed localization impairments in touch result from a cognitively controlled integration process that combines anatomically and externally coded responses.

Development of transient initiating event frequencies for use in probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackowiak, D.P.; Gentillon, C.D.; Smith, K.L.

1985-05-01

Transient initiating event frequencies are an essential input to the analysis process of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment. These frequencies describe events causing or requiring scrams. This report documents an effort to validate and update from other sources a computer-based data file developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) describing such events at 52 United States commercial nuclear power plants. Operating information from the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on 24 additional plants from their date of commercial operation has been combined with the EPRI data, and the entire data base has been updated to add 1980 through 1983 events for all 76 plants. The validity of the EPRI data and data analysis methodology and the adequacy of the EPRI transient categories are examined. New transient initiating event frequencies are derived from the expanded data base using the EPRI transient categories and data display methods. Upper bounds for these frequencies are also provided. Additional analyses explore changes in the dominant transients, changes in transient outage times and their impact on plant operation, and the effects of power level and scheduled scrams on transient event frequencies. A more rigorous data analysis methodology is developed to encourage further refinement of the transient initiating event frequencies derived herein. Updating the transient event data base resulted in approx.2400 events being added to EPRI's approx.3000-event data file. The resulting frequency estimates were in most cases lower than those reported by EPRI, but no significant order-of-magnitude changes were noted. The average number of transients per year for the combined data base is 8.5 for pressurized water reactors and 7.4 for boiling water reactors

Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

2015-04-01

This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Results of the Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of internal events for heavy water production reactors (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tinnes, S.P.; Cramer, D.S.; Logan, V.E.; Topp, S.V.; Smith, J.A.; Brandyberry, M.D.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on a full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) production reactors. The Level 1 PRA for the K Reactor has been completed and includes the assessment of reactor systems response to accidents and estimates of the severe core melt frequency (SCMF). The internal events spectrum includes those events related directly to plant systems and safety functions for which transients or failures may initiate an accident

Protection of nuclear power plants against external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinet, P.; Roch, R.

1978-01-01

The paper describes the methodology of the safety design of nuclear power plants against external events with particular emphasis of the Belgian Plants. The site analysis and potential hazards evaluation are explained. The different designs incorporating various combinations of reinforced structures and dedicated systems are analysed. The particular lay-out and systems of the Belgian Plants are explained. (author)

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Identification and screening of hazards for the external event PRA - External hazard identification, screening and studies for a new plant site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellander, Juho

2014-01-01

Fennovoima is constructing a new nuclear power plant on a greenfield site in Northern Finland. Various evaluations for site-specific hazards are needed to ensure sufficient plant design basis values, proper design solutions and to provide input for the PRA model. This paper presents the general process used in identifying the relevant site-specific external hazards. The applicable legislative requirements, guides and standards regarding external hazards and external event PRA shall be identified. Based on these, an initial comprehensive list of events should be compiled. The initial list shall be filtered to exclude irrelevant events. Events can be screened out if the probability is very low or if the consequences are only mild. Events with similar consequences should be combined. Events can be grouped in several ways, and in this paper the risks are categorized into events related to air, water bodies, ground and human behaviour. In addition, the simultaneously occurring combinations of events should be identified. The paper also summarizes some hazard studies already performed and required in the future in Fennovoima's project. A comprehensive study is ongoing related to earthquake risks. The study aims at identifying all relevant seismic sources and taking into account various expert opinions in seismic modelling. Also frazil ice and anchor ice studies are being performed to eliminate the risk of cooling water intake blockage due to ice. In addition, some other study areas are mentioned. This paper presented a list of Finnish and international guides and standards useful in evaluating external hazards. Also a methodology was presented to identify and screen site-specific hazards in a new nuclear power plant project. The screened list of relevant events for the Hanhikivi site requiring further studies was presented. Also the studies needed in different phases of a new nuclear power plant project were discussed. Some specific studies regarding earthquakes and

Implementation of PSA models to estimate the probabilities associated with external event combination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, Luciano

2014-01-01

This note endeavors to address some significant issues revealed by the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011, such as the analysis of various dependency aspects arisen in the light of the external event PSA framework, as the treatment of the correlated hazards. To this aim some foundational notions to implement the PSA models related to specific aspects, like the external hazard combination, e.g., earthquake and tsunami as at the Fukushima accident, and the external hazard-caused internal events, e.g., seismic induced fire, are proposed and discussed to be incorporated within the risk assessment structure. Risk assessment of external hazards is required and utilized as an integrated part of PRA for operating and new reactor units. In the light of the Fukushima accident, of special interest are correlated events, whose modelling is proposed in the present study, in the form of some theoretical concepts, which lay the foundations for the PSA framework implementation. An applicative example is presented for illustrative purposes, since the analysis is carried out on the basis of generic numerical values assigned to an oversimplified model and results are achieved without any baseline comparison. Obviously the first step aimed at the process endorsement is the analysis of all available information in order to determine the level of applicability of the observed specific plant site events to the envisaged model and the statistical correlation analysis for event occurrence data that can be used as part of this process. Despite these drawbacks that actually do not qualify the achieved results, the present work represents an exploratory study aimed at resolving current open issues to be resolved in the PSA, like topics related to unanticipated scenarios: the combined external hazards of the earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima, external hazards causing internal events, such as seismic induced fire. These topics are to be resolved among the other ones as emerging from the

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Riyadi, Eko H., E-mail: e.riyadi@bapeten.go.id [Center for Regulatory Assessment of Nuclear Installation and Materials, Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency (BAPETEN), Jl. Gajah Mada 8 Jakarta 10120 (Indonesia)

2014-09-30

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.

Development of transient initiating event frequencies for use in probabilistic risk assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mackowiak, D.P.; Gentillon, C.D.; Smith, K.L.

1985-05-01

Transient initiating event frequencies are an essential input to the analysis process of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment. These frequencies describe events causing or requiring scrams. This report documents an effort to validate and update from other sources a computer-based data file developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) describing such events at 52 United States commercial nuclear power plants. Operating information from the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on 24 additional plants from their date of commercial operation has been combined with the EPRI data, and the entire data base has been updated to add 1980 through 1983 events for all 76 plants. The validity of the EPRI data and data analysis methodology and the adequacy of the EPRI transient categories are examined. New transient initiating event frequencies are derived from the expanded data base using the EPRI transient categories and data display methods. Upper bounds for these frequencies are also provided. Additional analyses explore changes in the dominant transients, changes in transient outage times and their impact on plant operation, and the effects of power level and scheduled scrams on transient event frequencies. A more rigorous data analysis methodology is developed to encourage further refinement of the transient initiating event frequencies derived herein. Updating the transient event data base resulted in approx.2400 events being added to EPRI's approx.3000-event data file. The resulting frequency estimates were in most cases lower than those reported by EPRI, but no significant order-of-magnitude changes were noted. The average number of transients per year for the combined data base is 8.5 for pressurized water reactors and 7.4 for boiling water reactors.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Using PROGUMBEL to predict extreme external hazards during nuclear power plant construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diburg, S.; Hoelscher, N.; Niemann, H.J.; Meiswinkel, R.

2010-01-01

Safety considerations concerning the construction of power plants, supporting structure planning, safety concept and structural design require reliable data on external events, their incidence probability and characteristic parameters. The basis for supporting structure calculations based on probabilistic reliability considerations is the knowledge on the statistical distribution or the incidence frequency of specific phenomena and their characteristic basic variables. The extreme value statistics software PRO GUMBEL is the extended version of the original GUMBEL software used for seismic assessments. The authors describe the features of the software, that covers seismic events, flooding and extreme storms.

Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guanchun

2011-01-01

This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…

Procedures for conducting probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants (Level 1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This report provides guidance for conducting a Level 1 of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), that is a PSA concerned with events leading to core damage. The scope of this report is confined to internal initiating events (excluding internal fires and floods). A particular aim is to promote a standardized framework, terminology and form of documentation for PSAs so as to facilitate external review of the results of such studies. The report is divided into the following major sections: management and organization; identification of sources of radioactive releases and accident initiators; accident sequence modelling; data assessment and parameter estimation; accident sequence quantification; documentation of the analysis: display and interpretation of result. 45 refs, 7 figs, 23 tabs

AP1000R design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

2012-01-01

Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000 R nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel which is

CNE (central nuclear en Embalse): probabilistic safety study. Loss-of-coolant accidents. Analysis through events sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Layral, S.I.

1987-01-01

The aim of this study was to perform for the Embalse nuclear power plant, a probabilistic evaluation of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) to identify the risks associated with them and to determine their acceptability in accordance with norms. This study includes all ruptures in the primary system that produce the automatic activation of 'emergency core cooling system'. Three starting events were selected for the probabilistic evaluation: 100% rupture of an input collector; 5% rupture of an input collector; 1.2% rupture of an input collector. At this stage the evaluation is focussed on the identification and quantization of the main failure sequences that follow a LOCA and lead to an uncontrolled reactor state or 'core meltdown'. The most important contribution to the core meltdown due to LOCA is the failure of supplies that are required for the emergency core cooling system. (Author)

Computer codes for level 1 probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-06-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) entails several laborious tasks suitable for computer codes assistance. This guide identifies these tasks, presents guidelines for selecting and utilizing computer codes in the conduct of the PSA tasks and for the use of PSA results in safety management and provides information on available codes suggested or applied in performing PSA in nuclear power plants. The guidance is intended for use by nuclear power plant system engineers, safety and operating personnel, and regulators. Large efforts are made today to provide PC-based software systems and PSA processed information in a way to enable their use as a safety management tool by the nuclear power plant overall management. Guidelines on the characteristics of software needed for management to prepare a software that meets their specific needs are also provided. Most of these computer codes are also applicable for PSA of other industrial facilities. The scope of this document is limited to computer codes used for the treatment of internal events. It does not address other codes available mainly for the analysis of external events (e.g. seismic analysis) flood and fire analysis. Codes discussed in the document are those used for probabilistic rather than for phenomenological modelling. It should be also appreciated that these guidelines are not intended to lead the user to selection of one specific code. They provide simply criteria for the selection. Refs and tabs

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, D J; Ragland, W A; Roglans, J

1998-11-01

This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1}, even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1} and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10{sup -5} yr{sup -1}. Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability.

The EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment lessons learned regarding passive safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1994-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

Probabilistic safety assessment goals in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snell, V.G.

1986-01-01

CANDU safety philosphy, both in design and in licensing, has always had a strong bias towards quantitative probabilistically-based goals derived from comparative safety. Formal probabilistic safety assessment began in Canada as a design tool. The influence of this carried over later on into the definition of the deterministic safety guidelines used in CANDU licensing. Design goals were further developed which extended the consequence/frequency spectrum of 'acceptable' events, from the two points defined by the deterministic single/dual failure analysis, to a line passing through lower and higher frequencies. Since these were design tools, a complete risk summation was not necessary, allowing a cutoff at low event frequencies while preserving the identification of the most significant safety-related events. These goals gave a logical framework for making decisions on implementing design changes proposed as a result of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. Performing this analysis became a regulatory requirement, and the design goals remained the framework under which this was submitted. Recently, there have been initiatives to incorporate more detailed probabilistic safety goals into the regulatory process in Canada. These range from far-reaching safety optimization across society, to initiatives aimed at the nuclear industry only. The effectiveness of the latter is minor at very low and very high event frequencies; at medium frequencies, a justification against expenditures per life saved in other industries should be part of the goal setting

Rare events in networks with internal and external noise

Science.gov (United States)

Hindes, J.; Schwartz, I. B.

2017-12-01

We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and time scale of rare events are considered in detail for extinction in the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model as an illustration. We find that when both types of noise are present, there is a crossover region as the network size is increased, where the probability exponent for large deviations no longer increases linearly with the network size. We demonstrate that the form of the crossover depends on whether the endemic state is localized near the epidemic threshold or not.

Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2017-04-15

Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

2017-01-01

Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prescott, Steven; Mandelli, Diego; Sampath, Ramprasad; Smith, Curtis; Lin, Linyu

2015-01-01

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lin, Linyu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

A Probabilistic Approach to Network Event Formation from Pre-Processed Waveform Data

Science.gov (United States)

Kohl, B. C.; Given, J.

2017-12-01

The current state of the art for seismic event detection still largely depends on signal detection at individual sensor stations, including picking accurate arrivals times and correctly identifying phases, and relying on fusion algorithms to associate individual signal detections to form event hypotheses. But increasing computational capability has enabled progress toward the objective of fully utilizing body-wave recordings in an integrated manner to detect events without the necessity of previously recorded ground truth events. In 2011-2012 Leidos (then SAIC) operated a seismic network to monitor activity associated with geothermal field operations in western Nevada. We developed a new association approach for detecting and quantifying events by probabilistically combining pre-processed waveform data to deal with noisy data and clutter at local distance ranges. The ProbDet algorithm maps continuous waveform data into continuous conditional probability traces using a source model (e.g. Brune earthquake or Mueller-Murphy explosion) to map frequency content and an attenuation model to map amplitudes. Event detection and classification is accomplished by combining the conditional probabilities from the entire network using a Bayesian formulation. This approach was successful in producing a high-Pd, low-Pfa automated bulletin for a local network and preliminary tests with regional and teleseismic data show that it has promise for global seismic and nuclear monitoring applications. The approach highlights several features that we believe are essential to achieving low-threshold automated event detection: Minimizes the utilization of individual seismic phase detections - in traditional techniques, errors in signal detection, timing, feature measurement and initial phase ID compound and propagate into errors in event formation, Has a formalized framework that utilizes information from non-detecting stations, Has a formalized framework that utilizes source information, in

Development of accident event trees and evaluation of safety system failure modes for the nuclear ultra large crude carrier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewe, C.K.; Coffey, R.S.; Goodwin, E.F.; Maltese, J.G.; Pyatt, D.W.

1978-01-01

A method of applying the probabilistic accident event tree methodology to safety assessments of a nuclear powered Ultra Large Crude Carrier is presented. Also presented are the procedures by which an external accident initiating event, such as a ship collision, may be correlated with the probabilities of damage to the ship's safety systems and to their ultimate availabilities to perform required safety functions

Selection of important initiating events for Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment study at Puspati TRIGA Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maskin, M.; Charlie, F.; Hassan, A.; Prak Tom, P.; Ramli, Z.; Mohamed, F.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Identifying possible important initiating events (IEs) for Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment performed on research nuclear reactor. • Methods in screening and grouping IEs are addressed. • Focusing only on internal IEs due to random failures of components. - Abstract: This paper attempts to present the results in identifying possible important initiating events (IEs) as comprehensive as possible to be applied in the development of Level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) study. This involves the approaches in listing and the methods in screening and grouping IEs, by focusing only on the internal IEs due to random failures of components and human errors with full power operational conditions and reactor core as the radioactivity source. Five approaches were applied in listing the IEs and each step of the methodology was described and commented. The criteria in screening and grouping the IEs were also presented. The results provided the information on how the Malaysian PSA team applied the approaches in selecting the most probable IEs as complete as possible in order to ensure the set of IEs was identified systematically and as representative as possible, hence providing confidence to the completeness of the PSA study. This study is perhaps one of the first to address classic comprehensive steps in identifying important IEs to be used in a Level-1 PSA study.

Progress for the Industry Application External Hazard Analyses Early Demonstration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Sludern, Daniel [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Sampath, Ram [Centroid PIC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

This report describes the current progress and status related to the Industry Application #2 focusing on External Hazards. For this industry application within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) R&D Pathway, we will create the Risk-Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation) event scenarios and consequences by using an advanced 3D facility representation that will evaluate external hazards such as flooding and earthquakes in order to identify, model and analyze the appropriate physics that needs to be included to determine plant vulnerabilities related to external events; manage the communication and interactions between different physics modeling and analysis technologies; and develop the computational infrastructure through tools related to plant representation, scenario depiction, and physics prediction. One of the unique aspects of the RISMC approach is how it couples probabilistic approaches (the scenario) with mechanistic phenomena representation (the physics) through simulation. This simulation-based modeling allows decision makers to focus on a variety of safety, performance, or economic metrics. In this report, we describe the evaluation of various physics toolkits related to flooding representation. Ultimately, we will be coupling the flooding representation with other events such as earthquakes in order to provide coupled physics analysis for scenarios where interactions exist.

Probabilistic seismic hazards: Guidelines and constraints in evaluating results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadigh, R.K.; Power, M.S.

1989-01-01

In conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, consideration of the dispersion as well as the upper bounds on ground motion is of great significance. In particular, the truncation of ground motion levels at some upper limit would have a major influence on the computed hazard at the low-to-very-low probability levels. Additionally, other deterministic guidelines and constraints should be considered in evaluating the probabilistic seismic hazard results. In contrast to probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations, mean plus one standard deviation ground motions are typically used for deterministic estimates of ground motions from maximum events that may affect a structure. To be consistent with standard deterministic maximum estimates of ground motions values should be the highest level considered for the site. These maximum values should be associated with the largest possible event occurring at the site. Furthermore, the relationships between the ground motion level and probability of exceedance should reflect a transition from purely probabilistic assessments of ground motion at high probability levels where there are multiple chances for events to a deterministic upper bound ground motion at very low probability levels where there is very limited opportunity for maximum events to occur. In Interplate Regions, where the seismic sources may be characterized by a high-to-very-high rate of activity, the deterministic bounds will be approached or exceeded by the computer probabilistic hazard values at annual probability of exceedance levels typically as high as 10 -2 to 10 -3 . Thus, at these or lower values probability levels, probabilistically computed hazard values could be readily interpreted in the light of the deterministic constraints

AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, 1000 Westinghouse Drive, Cranberry Township, PA 16066 (United States)

2012-07-01

Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel

Probabilistic solution of the Dirac equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, P.; Combe, P.

1985-01-01

Various probabilistic representations of the 2, 3 and 4 dimensional Dirac equation are given in terms of expectation with respect to stochastic jump processes and are used to derive the nonrelativistic limit even in the presence of an external electromagnetic field. (orig.)

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-02-14

Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.

Preliminary perspectives gaines from individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE) seismic and fire submittal review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, J.T.; Connell, E.; Chokshi, N.

1997-01-01

As a result of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) initiated Individual plant Examination of External Events (IPEEE) program, every operating nuclear power reactor in the United States has performed an assessment of severe accident due to external events. This paper provides a summary of the preliminary insights gained through the review of 24 IPEEE submittals

External flooding event analysis in a PWR-W with MAAP5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez-Cosials, Mikel Kevin; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Barreira, Pilar; Queral, Cesar

2015-01-01

Highlights: • External flooding preceded by a SCRAM is simulated with MAAP5.01. • Sensitivities include AFW-TDP, SLOCA and operator preventive actions. • SLOCA flow is the dominant factor in the sequences. • Vessel failure is avoidable with operator preventive actions. - Abstract: The Fukushima accident has drawn attention even more to the importance of external events and loss of energy supply on safety analysis. Since 2011, several Station Blackout (SBO) analyses have been done for all type of reactors. The most post-Fukushima studies analyze a pure and straight SBO transient, but the Fukushima accident was more complex than a standard SBO. At Fukushima accident, the SBO was a consequence of an external flooding from the tsunami and occurred 40 min after an emergency shutdown (SCRAM) caused by the earthquake. The first objective of this paper is to assume the consequences of an external flooding accident in a PWR site caused by a river flood, a dam break or a tsunami, where all the plant is damaged, not only the diesel generators. The second objective is to analyze possible actions to be performed in the time between the earthquake event (that causes a SCRAM) and the external flooding arrival, which could be applicable to accidents such as dam failures or river flooding in order to avoid more severe consequences, delay the core damage and improve the accident management. The results reveal how the actuation of the different systems and equipments affect the core damage time and how some actions could delay the core damage time enough to increase the possibility of AC power recovery

External Events Excluding Earthquakes in the Design of Nuclear Power Plants. Safety Guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This Safety Guide provides recommendations and guidance on design for the protection of nuclear power plants from the effects of external events (excluding earthquakes), i.e. events that originate either off the site or within the boundaries of the site but from sources that are not directly involved in the operational states of the nuclear power plant units. In addition, it provides recommendations on engineering related matters in order to comply with the safety objectives and requirements established in the IAEA Safety Requirements publication, Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design. It is also applicable to the design and safety assessment of items important to the safety of land based stationary nuclear power plants with water cooled reactors. Contents: 1. Introduction; 2. Application of safety criteria to the design; 3. Design basis for external events; 4. Aircraft crash; 5. External fire; 6. Explosions; 7. Asphyxiant and toxic gases; 8. Corrosive and radioactive gases and liquids; 9. Electromagnetic interference; 10. Floods; 11. Extreme winds; 12. Extreme meteorological conditions; 13. Biological phenomena; 14. Volcanism; 15. Collisions of floating bodies with water intakes and UHS components; Annex I: Aircraft crashes; Annex II: Detonation and deflagration; Annex III: Toxicity limits.

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) update in light of the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station - 15461

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, K.; Abe, H.; Hirokawa, N.; Satou, C.

2015-01-01

We have performed internal and external event probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) for boiling water reactor power nuclear plants to identify the important accident sequence groups and to evaluate the effectiveness of the additional severe accident measures, regarding to the new regulatory requirements implemented after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan in 2011. In addition, we will further update our PRA by extracting problems and improvements from the current PRA, by catching up the state-of-the-art knowledge, modern PRA methodologies in order to contribute voluntarily to safety improvement as well as to comply with regulations. In this document, prior to the extensive PRA updates, we would describe technical contents and qualitative results about PRA updates that have been performed preliminary so far, especially about the external event (seismic) PRA and how to model the additionally deployed severe accident measures (e.g. power supply car, fire engine) so that they can be function external hazards, such as component failure rate of equipment, human reliability 'out of control room', and mission time extension. (authors)

Ignorability in Statistical and Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

When dealing with incomplete data in statistical learning, or incomplete observations in probabilistic inference, one needs to distinguish the fact that a certain event is observed from the fact that the observed event has happened. Since the modeling and computational complexities entailed...

Causal Learning from Probabilistic Events in 24-Month-Olds: An Action Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Waismeyer, Anna; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Gopnik, Alison

2015-01-01

How do young children learn about causal structure in an uncertain and variable world? We tested whether they can use observed probabilistic information to solve causal learning problems. In two experiments, 24-month-olds observed an adult produce a probabilistic pattern of causal evidence. The toddlers then were given an opportunity to design…

A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...

The NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk assessment for the Sequoyah nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, J.J.; Breeding, R.J.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes the findings of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for Unit 1 of the Sequoyah Nuclear Plant performed in support of NUREG-1150. The emphasis is on the 'back-end' analyses, the accident progression, source term, and consequence analyses, and the risk results obtained when the results of these analyses are combined with the accident frequency analysis. The results of this PRA indicate that the offsite risk from internal initiating events at Sequoyah are quite low with respect to the safety goals. The containment appears likely to withstand the loads that might be placed upon it if the reactor vessel fails. A good portion of the risk, in this analysis, comes from initiating events which bypass the containment. These events are estimated to have a relatively low frequency of occurrence, but their consequences are quite large. Other events that contribute to offsite risk involve early containment failures that occur during degradation of the core or near the time of vessel breach. Considerable uncertainty is associated with the risk estimates produced in this analysis. Offsite risk from external initiating events was not included in this analysis. (orig.)

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Probabilistic escalation modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korneliussen, G.; Eknes, M.L.; Haugen, K.; Selmer-Olsen, S. [Det Norske Veritas, Oslo (Norway)

1997-12-31

This paper describes how structural reliability methods may successfully be applied within quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as an alternative to traditional event tree analysis. The emphasis is on fire escalation in hydrocarbon production and processing facilities. This choice was made due to potential improvements over current QRA practice associated with both the probabilistic approach and more detailed modelling of the dynamics of escalating events. The physical phenomena important for the events of interest are explicitly modelled as functions of time. Uncertainties are represented through probability distributions. The uncertainty modelling enables the analysis to be simple when possible and detailed when necessary. The methodology features several advantages compared with traditional risk calculations based on event trees. (Author)

Effects of hypnagogic imagery on the event-related potential to external tone stimuli.

Science.gov (United States)

Michida, Nanae; Hayashi, Mitsuo; Hori, Tadao

2005-07-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of hypnagogic imagery on the information processes of external tone stimuli during the sleep onset period with the use of event-related potentials. Event-related potentials to tone stimuli were compared between conditions with and without the experience of hypnagogic imagery. To control the arousal level when the tone was presented, a certain criterion named the electroencephalogram stage was used. Stimuli were presented at electroencephalogram stage 4, which was characterized by the appearance of a vertex sharp wave. Data were collected in the sleep laboratory at Hiroshima University. Eleven healthy university and graduate school students participated in the study. N/A. Experiments were performed at night. Reaction times to tone stimuli were measured, and only trials with shorter reaction times than 5000 milliseconds were analyzed. Electroencephalograms were recorded from Fz, Cz, Pz, Oz, T5 and T6. There were no differences in reaction times and electroencephalogram spectra between the conditions of with and without hypnagogic imagery. These results indicated that the arousal levels were not different between the 2 conditions. On the other hand, the N550 amplitude of the event-related potentials in the imagery condition was lower than in the no-imagery condition. The decrease in the N550 amplitude in the imagery condition showed that experiences of hypnagogic imagery exert some influence on the information processes of external tone stimuli. It is possible that the processing of hypnagogic imagery interferes with the processing of external stimuli, lowering the sensitivity to external stimuli.

CNE (Embalse nuclear power plant): probabilistic safety study. Electric power supply. Events sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueroa, N.

1987-01-01

The plant response to the occurrence of the starting event 'total loss of electric power supply to class IV and class III' is analyzed. This involves the study of automatical actions of safety and process systems as well as the operator actions. The probabilistic evaluation of starting event frequency is performed through fault-tree techniques. The frequency of occurrence 'loss of electric power supply to class IV (λIV = 0.56/year) and the probability of failure to demand of 'reserve' generating groups (Pd III 6.79 x 10 -3 ) contribute to the mentioned frequency. As soon as the starting event occurs, the reactor power must be reduced to 0%, the fuel must be cooled through the thermo siphon and decay heat has to be removed. The events sequence analysis leads to the conclusion that the non shutting down of the reactor with any of the shutdown systems is 'incredible' (10 -6 /year). In all cases the fuel is cooled by building the thermo siphon except when a substantial inventory loss exist due to a closure failure of some valve of pressure and inventory control system. The order of magnitude of the failure of decay heat removal through the steam generators is 4 x 10 -4 . This removal would be assured by the emergency water system. Therefore, the frequency of the sequence of possible core meltdown, when the reactor does not shut down is: λ = 5 x 10 -9 /year and for the failure of heat removal: λ = 2 x 10 -6 /year. (Author)

Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sirovich, Lawrence

2011-09-20

This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.

Statistical and Probabilistic Extensions to Ground Operations' Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Trocine, Linda; Cummings, Nicholas H.; Bazzana, Ashley M.; Rychlik, Nathan; LeCroy, Kenneth L.; Cates, Grant R.

2010-01-01

NASA's human exploration initiatives will invest in technologies, public/private partnerships, and infrastructure, paving the way for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system and beyond. As it is has been for the past half century, the Kennedy Space Center will be the embarkation point for humankind's journey into the cosmos. Functioning as a next generation space launch complex, Kennedy's launch pads, integration facilities, processing areas, launch and recovery ranges will bustle with the activities of the world's space transportation providers. In developing this complex, KSC teams work through the potential operational scenarios: conducting trade studies, planning and budgeting for expensive and limited resources, and simulating alternative operational schemes. Numerous tools, among them discrete event simulation (DES), were matured during the Constellation Program to conduct such analyses with the purpose of optimizing the launch complex for maximum efficiency, safety, and flexibility while minimizing life cycle costs. Discrete event simulation is a computer-based modeling technique for complex and dynamic systems where the state of the system changes at discrete points in time and whose inputs may include random variables. DES is used to assess timelines and throughput, and to support operability studies and contingency analyses. It is applicable to any space launch campaign and informs decision-makers of the effects of varying numbers of expensive resources and the impact of off nominal scenarios on measures of performance. In order to develop representative DES models, methods were adopted, exploited, or created to extend traditional uses of DES. The Delphi method was adopted and utilized for task duration estimation. DES software was exploited for probabilistic event variation. A roll-up process was used, which was developed to reuse models and model elements in other less - detailed models. The DES team continues to innovate and expand

Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

2016-12-01

This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

Hybrid instrument applied to human reliability study in event of loss of external electric power in a nuclear power plant; Instrumento hibrido aplicado ao estudo da confiabilidade humana em evento de perda de energia eletrica externa em usina nuclear

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martins, Eduardo Ferraz

2015-04-01

The study projects in highly complex installations involves robust modeling, supported by conceptual and mathematical tools, to carry out systematic research and structured the different risk scenarios that can lead to unwanted events from occurring equipment failures or human errors. In the context of classical modeling, the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) seeks to provide qualitative and quantitative information about the project particularity and their operational facilities, including the identification of factors or scenarios that contribute to the risk and consequent comparison options for increasing safety. In this context, the aim of the thesis is to develop a hybrid instrument (CPP-HI) innovative, from the integrated modeling techniques of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), concepts of Human Reliability Analysis and Probabilistic Composition of Preferences (PCP). In support of modeling and validation of the CPP-HI, a simulation was performed on a triggering event 'Loss of External Electric Power' - PEEE, in a Nuclear Power plant. The results were simulated in a virtual environment (sensitivity analysis) and are robust to the study of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in the context of the PSA. (author)

Probabilistic precursor analysis - an application of PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hari Prasad, M.; Gopika, V.; Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Vaze, K.K.

2011-01-01

Incidents are inevitably part of the operational life of any complex industrial facility, and it is hard to predict how various contributing factors combine to cause the outcome. However, it should be possible to detect the existence of latent conditions that, together with the triggering failure(s), result in abnormal events. These incidents are called precursors. Precursor study, by definition, focuses on how a particular event might have adversely developed. This paper focuses on the events which can be analyzed to assess their potential to develop into core damage situation and looks into extending Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to precursor studies and explains the benefits through a typical case study. A preliminary probabilistic precursor analysis has been carried out for a typical NPP. The major advantages of this approach are the strong potential for augmenting event analysis which is currently carried out purely on deterministic basis. (author)

The external leadership of self-managing teams: intervening in the context of novel and disruptive events.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgeson, Frederick P

2005-05-01

Relatively little empirical research has been conducted on external leaders of self-managing teams. The integration of functional leadership theory with research on team routines suggests that leaders can intervene in teams in several different ways, and the effectiveness of this intervention depends on the nature of the events the team encounters. External team leaders from 3 organizations first described a series of events (N=117), and leaders and team members then completed surveys to quantitatively describe the events. Results indicated that leader preparation and supportive coaching were positively related to team perceptions of leader effectiveness, with preparation becoming more strongly related to effectiveness as event novelty increased. More active leader intervention activities (active coaching and sense making) were negatively related to satisfaction with leadership yet were positively related to effectiveness as events became more disruptive.

Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks

CERN Document Server

Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.

Review of the Diablo Canyon probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.; Sabek, M.G.; Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

1994-08-01

This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Term Seismic Program

OVERVIEW OF THE ACTIVITIES OF THE NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY WORKING GROUP ON EXTERNAL EVENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakoski, John A.; Smith, Curtis L.; Kim, Min Kyu

2016-10-01

The Orgranisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has established a Working Group on External Events (WGEV) that provides a forum for subject matter experts from the nuclear industry and regulators to improve the understanding and treatment of external hazards that would support the continued safety performance of nuclear installations, and improve the effectiveness of regulatory practices, in NEA member countries. This report provides a description of the ongoing work of the WGEV. The work of the WGEV includes the collection of information and conducting a workshop on severe weather and storm surge that brought together a diverse group of subject matter experts to identify commendable practices related to the treatment of severe weather and storm surge consideration in regulatory and operational decision-making. Other work of the WGEV includes looking at science-based screening of external events that are factored into decisions on the safe operation of nuclear facilities; and identification of commendable practices and knowledge gaps on riverine flooding.

Estimation of integrated public risks for nonseismic external events affecting the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durant, W.S.; robinette, R.J.; Kirchner, J.R.

1994-03-01

In essence, this study was envisioned as the ''combination'' of existing accident dose and risk calculations from safety analyses of individual facilities. However, because of the extended time period over which the safety analyses were prepared, calculational assumptions and methodologies differed between the analyses. The scope of this study therefore included the standardization of assumptions and calculations as necessary to insure that the analytical logic was consistent for all the facilities. Each of the nonseismic external events considered in the analyses are addressed in individual sections in this report. In Section 2, extreme straight-line winds are examined. Section 3 addresses tornadoes, and Section 4 addresses other external events [floods, other extreme weather events (lightning, hail, and extremes in temperature or precipitation), vehicle impact, accidents involving adjacent facilities, aircraft impact, and meteorite impact]. Section 5 provides a summary of the general conclusions of the report

The characterisation and evaluation of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, G.W.; Winter, P.W.

1980-10-01

The sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis are discussed using the event/fault tree methodology as an example. The role of statistics in quantifying these uncertainties is investigated. A class of uncertainties is identified which is, at present, unquantifiable, using either classical or Bayesian statistics. It is argued that Bayesian statistics is the more appropriate vehicle for the probabilistic analysis of rare events and a short review is given with some discussion on the representation of ignorance. (author)

A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

2014-01-01

Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E

2001-03-01

In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency ({delta}CDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events

Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E.

2001-03-01

In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency (ΔCDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events on

Results of the Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of internal events for heavy water production reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tinnes, S.P.; Cramer, D.S.; Logan, V.E.; Topp, S.V.; Smith, J.A.; Brandyberry, M.D.

1990-01-01

A full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being performed for the Savannah River site (SRS) production reactors. The Level 1 PRA for the K Reactor has been completed and includes the assessment of reactor systems response to accidents and estimates of the severe core melt frequency (SCMF). The internal events spectrum includes those events related directly to plant systems and safety functions for which transients or failures may initiate an accident. The SRS PRA has three principal objectives: improved understanding of SRS reactor safety issues through discovery and understanding of the mechanisms involved. Improved risk management capability through tools for assessing the safety impact of both current standard operations and proposed revisions. A quantitative measure of the risks posed by SRS reactor operation to employees and the general public, to allow comparison with declared goals and other societal risks

Apical External Root Resorption and Repair in Orthodontic Tooth Movement: Biological Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Feller, Liviu; Khammissa, Razia A G; Thomadakis, George; Fourie, Jeanine; Lemmer, Johan

2016-01-01

Some degree of external root resorption is a frequent, unpredictable, and unavoidable consequence of orthodontic tooth movement mediated by odontoclasts/cementoclasts originating from circulating precursor cells in the periodontal ligament. Its pathogenesis involves mechanical forces initiating complex interactions between signalling pathways activated by various biological agents. Resorption of cementum is regulated by mechanisms similar to those controlling osteoclastogenesis and bone resorption. Following root resorption there is repair by cellular cementum, but factors mediating the transition from resorption to repair are not clear. In this paper we review some of the biological events associated with orthodontically induced external root resorption.

Apical External Root Resorption and Repair in Orthodontic Tooth Movement: Biological Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liviu Feller

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Some degree of external root resorption is a frequent, unpredictable, and unavoidable consequence of orthodontic tooth movement mediated by odontoclasts/cementoclasts originating from circulating precursor cells in the periodontal ligament. Its pathogenesis involves mechanical forces initiating complex interactions between signalling pathways activated by various biological agents. Resorption of cementum is regulated by mechanisms similar to those controlling osteoclastogenesis and bone resorption. Following root resorption there is repair by cellular cementum, but factors mediating the transition from resorption to repair are not clear. In this paper we review some of the biological events associated with orthodontically induced external root resorption.

Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Buslik, A.J.

1984-01-01

A procedures guide for the performance of probabilistic safety assessment has been prepared for interim use in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission programs. The probabilistic safety assessment studies performed are intended to produce probabilistic predictive models that can be used and extended by the utilities and by NRC to sharpen the focus of inquiries into a range of tissues affecting reactor safety. This guide addresses the determination of the probability (per year) of core damage resulting from accident initiators internal to the plant and from loss of offsite electric power. The scope includes analyses of problem-solving (cognitive) human errors, a determination of importance of the various core damage accident sequences, and an explicit treatment and display of uncertainties for the key accident sequences. Ultimately, the guide will be augmented to include the plant-specific analysis of in-plant processes (i.e., containment performance) and the risk associated with external accident initiators, as consensus is developed regarding suitable methodologies in these areas. This guide provides the structure of a probabilistic safety study to be performed, and indicates what products of the study are essential for regulatory decision making. Methodology is treated in the guide only to the extent necessary to indicate the range of methods which is acceptable; ample reference is given to alternative methodologies which may be utilized in the performance of the study

Market response to external events and interventions in spherical minority games

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papadopoulos, P; Coolen, A C C

2008-01-01

We solve the dynamics of large spherical minority games (MG) in the presence of non-negligible time-dependent external contributions to the overall market bid. The latter represent the actions of market regulators or other major natural or political events that impact on the market. In contrast to non-spherical MGs, the spherical formulation allows one to derive closed dynamical order parameter equations in an explicit form and work out the market's response to such events fully analytically. We focus on a comparison between the response to stationary versus oscillating market interventions, and reveal profound and partially unexpected differences in terms of transition lines and the volatility

Review insights on the probabilistic risk assessment for the Limerick Generating Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-08-01

In recognition of the high population density around the Limerick Generating Station site and the proposed power level, the Philadelphia Electric Company, in response to NRC staff requests, conducted and submitted between March 1981 and November 1983 a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on internal event contributors and a severe accident risk assessment on external event contributors to assess risks posed by operation of the plant. The applicant has developed perspectives using PRA models on the safety profile of the Limerick plant and has altered the plant design to reduce accident vulnerabilities identified in these PRAs. The staff's review of the Limerick PRA has particularly emphasized the dominant accident sequences and the resulting insights into demonstration of compliance with regulatory requirments, unique design features and major plant vulnerabilities to assess the need for any additional measures to further improve the safety of the LGS. The staff's review insights and PRA safety review conclusions are presented in this report

Methodology and results of the seismic probabilistic safety assessment of Krsko nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermaut, M.K.; Monette, P.; Campbell, R.D.

1995-01-01

A seismic IPEEE (Individual Plant Examination for External Events) was performed for the Krsko plant. The methodology adopted is the seismic PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). The Krsko NPP is located on a medium to high seismicity site. The PSA study described here includes all the steps in the PSA sequence, i.e. reassessment of the site hazard, calculation of plant structures response including soil-structure interaction, seismic plant walkdowns, probabilistic seismic fragility analysis of plant structures and components, and quantification of seismic core damage frequency (CDF). Also relay chatter analysis and soil stability studies were performed. The seismic PSA described here is limited to the analysis of CDF (level I PSA). The subsequent determination and quantification of plant damage states, containment behaviour and radioactive releases to the outside (level 2 PSA) have been performed for the Krsko NPP but are not further described in this paper. The results of the seismic PSA study indicate that, with some upgrades suggested by the PSA team, the seismic induced CDF is comparable to that of most US and Western Europe NPPs. (author)

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence

CERN Document Server

Kadane, Joseph B

2011-01-01

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is a Bayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Sacco and Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilities and assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies the ideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to this case, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of American legal history. Modern computation methods applied to inference networks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence in a complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilistic assess

Validation of the probabilistic approach for the analysis of PWR transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amesz, J.; Francocci, G.F.; Clarotti, C.

1978-01-01

This paper reviews the pilot study at present being carried out on the validation of probabilistic methodology with real data coming from the operational records of the PWR power station at Obrigheim (KWO, Germany) operating since 1969. The aim of this analysis is to validate the a priori predictions of reactor transients performed by a probabilistic methodology, with the posteriori analysis of transients that actually occurred at a power station. Two levels of validation have been distinguished: (a) validation of the rate of occurrence of initiating events; (b) validation of the transient-parameter amplitude (i.e., overpressure) caused by the above mentioned initiating events. The paper describes the a priori calculations performed using a fault-tree analysis by means of a probabilistic code (SALP 3) and event-trees coupled with a PWR system deterministic computer code (LOOP 7). Finally the principle results of these analyses are presented and critically reviewed

The Interactive Effects of Stressful Family Life Events and Cortisol Reactivity on Adolescent Externalizing and Internalizing Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Steeger, Christine M.; Cook, Emily C.; Connell, Christian M.

2016-01-01

This study investigated the associations between stressful family life events and adolescent externalizing and internalizing behaviors, and the interactive effects of family life events and cortisol reactivity on problem behaviors. In a sample of 100 mothers and their adolescents (M age = 15.09; SD age = 0.98; 68% girls), adolescent cortisol reactivity was measured in response to a mother-adolescent conflict interaction task designed to elicit a stress response. Mothers reported on measures of family life events and adolescent problem behaviors. Results indicated that a heightened adolescent cortisol response moderated the relations between stressful family life events and both externalizing and internalizing behaviors. Results support context-dependent theoretical models, suggesting that for adolescents with higher cortisol reactivity (compared to those with lower cortisol reactivity), higher levels of stressful family life events were associated with greater problem behaviors, whereas lower levels of stressful family life events were related to fewer problem behaviors. PMID:26961703

Climatological attribution of wind power ramp events in East Japan and their probabilistic forecast based on multi-model ensembles downscaled by analog ensemble using self-organizing maps

Science.gov (United States)

Ohba, Masamichi; Nohara, Daisuke; Kadokura, Shinji

2016-04-01

Severe storms or other extreme weather events can interrupt the spin of wind turbines in large scale that cause unexpected "wind ramp events". In this study, we present an application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) for climatological attribution of the wind ramp events and their probabilistic prediction. The SOM is an automatic data-mining clustering technique, which allows us to summarize a high-dimensional data space in terms of a set of reference vectors. The SOM is applied to analyze and connect the relationship between atmospheric patterns over Japan and wind power generation. SOM is employed on sea level pressure derived from the JRA55 reanalysis over the target area (Tohoku region in Japan), whereby a two-dimensional lattice of weather patterns (WPs) classified during the 1977-2013 period is obtained. To compare with the atmospheric data, the long-term wind power generation is reconstructed by using a high-resolution surface observation network AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) in Japan. Our analysis extracts seven typical WPs, which are linked to frequent occurrences of wind ramp events. Probabilistic forecasts to wind power generation and ramps are conducted by using the obtained SOM. The probability are derived from the multiple SOM lattices based on the matching of output from TIGGE multi-model global forecast to the WPs on the lattices. Since this method effectively takes care of the empirical uncertainties from the historical data, wind power generation and ramp is probabilistically forecasted from the forecasts of global models. The predictability skill of the forecasts for the wind power generation and ramp events show the relatively good skill score under the downscaling technique. It is expected that the results of this study provides better guidance to the user community and contribute to future development of system operation model for the transmission grid operator.

Probabilistic Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, James H., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.

Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yee, Eric [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Dept. of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

Use of the t-distribution to construct seismic hazard curves for seismic probabilistic safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yee, Eric

2017-01-01

Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered

Computer aided probabilistic assessment of containment integrity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsai, J.C.; Touchton, R.A.

1984-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant, there are three probability-based techniques which are widely used for event sequence frequency quantification (including nodal probability estimation). These three techniques are the event tree analysis, the fault tree analysis and the Bayesian approach for database development. In the barrier analysis for assessing radionuclide release to the environment in a PRA study, these techniques are employed to a greater extent in estimating conditions which could lead to failure of the fuel cladding and the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary, but to a lesser degree in the containment pressure boundary failure analysis. The main reason is that containment issues are currently still in a state of flux. In this paper, the authors describe briefly the computer programs currently used by the nuclear industry to do event tree analyses, fault tree analyses and the Bayesian update. The authors discuss how these computer aided probabilistic techniques might be adopted for failure analysis of the containment pressure boundary

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

Science.gov (United States)

Best, Lauren M.; Myers, Jerry G.; Goodenow, Debra A.; McRae, Michael P.; Jackson, Travis C.

2013-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously

Basic Safety Considerations for Nuclear Power Plant Dealing with External Human Induced Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salem, W., E-mail: wafaasalem21@yahoo.com [Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority (Egypt)

2014-10-15

Facilities and human activities in the region in which a nuclear power plant is located may under some conditions affect its safety. The potential sources of human induced events external to the plant should be identified and the severity of the possible resulting hazard phenomena should be evaluated to derive the appropriate design bases for the plant. They should also be monitored and periodically assessed over the lifetime of the plant to ensure that consistency with the design assumptions is maintained. External human induced events that could affect safety should be investigated in the site evaluation stage for every nuclear power plant site. The region is required to be examined for facilities and human activities that have the potential, under certain conditions, to endanger the nuclear power plant over its entire lifetime. Each relevant potential source is required to be identified and assessed to determine the potential interactions with personnel and plant items important to safety. (author)

Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Raftery, Adrian E

2016-12-01

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.

Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941

Exact and approximate probabilistic symbolic execution for nondeterministic programs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luckow, Kasper Søe; Păsăreanu, Corina S.; Dwyer, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

Probabilistic software analysis seeks to quantify the likelihood of reaching a target event under uncertain environments. Recent approaches compute probabilities of execution paths using symbolic execution, but do not support nondeterminism. Nondeterminism arises naturally when no suitable probab...... Java programs. We show that our algorithms significantly improve upon a state-of-the-art statistical model checking algorithm, originally developed for Markov Decision Processes....... probabilistic model can capture a program behavior, e.g., for multithreading or distributed systems. In this work, we propose a technique, based on symbolic execution, to synthesize schedulers that resolve nondeterminism to maximize the probability of reaching a target event. To scale to large systems, we also...

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Yemen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Mohindra

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A stochastic-event probabilistic seismic hazard model, which can be used further for estimates of seismic loss and seismic risk analysis, has been developed for the territory of Yemen. An updated composite earthquake catalogue has been compiled using the databases from two basic sources and several research publications. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define and characterize the regional earthquake source zones for Yemen. To capture all possible scenarios in the seismic hazard model, a stochastic event set has been created consisting of 15,986 events generated from 1,583 fault segments in the delineated seismic source zones. Distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA was calculated for all stochastic events considering epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion modeling using three suitable ground motion-prediction relationships, which were applied with equal weight. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps were created showing PGA and MSK seismic intensity at 10% and 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considering local soil site conditions. The resulting PGA for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (return period 475 years ranges from 0.2 g to 0.3 g in western Yemen and generally is less than 0.05 g across central and eastern Yemen. The largest contributors to Yemen’s seismic hazard are the events from the West Arabian Shield seismic zone.

GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

2006-12-01

The development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface(GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within limits of the possibility

Probabilistic Cross-Identification of Cosmic Events

OpenAIRE

Budavari, Tamas

2011-01-01

We discuss a novel approach to identifying cosmic events in separate and independent observations. In our focus are the true events, such as supernova explosions, that happen once, hence, whose measurements are not repeatable. Their classification and analysis have to make the best use of all the available data. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to associate streams of events in space and time. Probabilities are assigned to the matches by studying their rates of occurrence. A case study of ...

Development of probabilistic methods for safety assessment of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schott, H.; Berg, H.P.

1998-01-01

Since its introduction by the German Risk Study, Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has developed in Germany to a valuable tool in regulatory decision-making. Plant specific PSAs of Level 1+ are now conducted for all nuclear power plants in the frame of Periodic Safety Reviews. This paper is devoted to the description or key elements set out in the regulatory guidelines for PSA-Level 1+ and the corresponding technical documents and the further development of PSA methodology in the Federal Republic of Germany. In the course of the next years it is intended to make progress in the modeling of common cause failures, human reliability evaluation, reduction of uncertainties in PSA modeling techniques and data estimation, analysis of low power and shut down states as well as in reaching a mature methodology for inclusion of external events into the analysis. (author)

External man-induced events in relation to nuclear power plant design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

This Guide deals with the basic design requirements for nuclear power plants, and presents a general design approach for protection against the effects of man-induced events. Section 2 discusses the general design approach. Section 3 outlines the development of the basic information necessary for an evaluation of the adequacy of a design against the effects of aircraft crashes, fires, explosions, and the release of toxic gases or corrosive substances. Section 4 outlines the design logic for protection against external man-induced events. It indicates possible methods of ensuring overall plant safety, including protection against possible secondary effects. Included for each event are: a methodology for calculating the design input parameters from the data generated in the siting study, system protection considerations from the effects of this man-induced event, and criteria for judging the adequacy of the protection provided. Specific design guidance related to acts of sabotage is not provided in this Guide. It should be recognized, however, that for certain situations such acts can be important to safety and could constitute the controlling postulated initiating event for design. The list of events covered is not necessarily complete. However, important events on which enough work has already been done in various Member States to enable their effects to be converted into generally accepted design parameters are included. In addition, other man-induced events such as dam ruptures, ship collisions, construction accidents and the like are identified but no general guidelines for design can be specified for these at present. These events need to be considered on an ad hoc basis, in order to arrive at design input parameters for them

Probabilistic Safety Assessment Of It TRIGA Mark-II Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ergun, E; Kadiroglu, O.S.

1999-01-01

The probabilistic safety assessment for Istanbul Technical University (ITU) TRIGA Mark-II reactor is performed. Qualitative analysis, which includes fault and event trees and quantitative analysis which includes the collection of data for basic events, determination of minimal cut sets, calculation of quantitative values of top events, sensitivity analysis and importance measures, uncertainty analysis and radiation release from fuel elements are considered

External hazards analysis approach to level 1 PSA of Mochovce NPP - Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stojka, Tibor

2000-01-01

Analyses of external events had been first time performed at the design stage of the Mochovce NPP showing sufficiently low contribution of external hazards to core damage frequency. But, based on IAEA document 'Safety problems of WWER-440/213 NPPs and the categorization' (IAEA-EBP-WWER-03, 1996), the need of new reassessment arose due to discrepancy of some origin recommendations in compare with present IAEA ones. Mochovce NPP Nuclear Safety Improvements Program elaborated at the same time included the IAEA recommendations and following improvements were proposed to perform in context of external events. 1. Seismic project and new locality seismic evaluation This safety improvement includes also some 'on site' technical improvements in seismic stability of structures and equipment. 2. Unit specific analyses of extreme meteorologic conditions. This safety improvement focuses on impact of feasible extreme conditions on NPP systems caused by rain, snow and hail storms, frost, winds, low and high temperatures. 3. Analyses of external hazards caused by humans. In this safety improvement were specified: feasible sources of explosions; analyses of hydrogen, gas and propane-calor gas depots; air crash risk. The results of these implemented safety improvements were considered in the PSA study. The External hazards analysis is also part of Level 1 PSA Mochovce NPP performed by PSA Department of VUJE Trnava Inc., Engineering, Design and Research Organization, Slovakia. Some partial analyses are performed in cooperation with following companies DS and S - SAIC, USA and Geophysical Institute Academy of Science, Slovakia Relko, Slovakia. Basic documents are: NUREG/CR-2300 'PRA Procedures Guide - A Guide to the Performance of Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants' and IAEA SS No. 50-P-7 'Treatment of External Hazards in PSA for NPPs. The external hazards analysis consists of following parts: 1. Geography and plant locality; 2. Nearby industry; 3. Extreme

External main-induced events in relation to nuclear power plant siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-01-01

This safety Guide recomments procedures and provides information for use in implementing that part of the code of safety in Nuclear Power Plant Siting (IAEA Safety Series No. 50-C-S) which concerns man-induced events external to the plant, up to the evaluation of corresponding design basis parameters. Like the code, the Guide forms part of the IAEA's programme, referred to as the NUSS programme, for establishing codes of practice and safety Guides relating to land-based stationary thermal neutron power plants

Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

Attributes of Full Scope Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-10-01

This publication supersedes IAEA-TECDOC-1511, Determining the Quality of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for Applications in Nuclear Power Plants (published in 2006), which provided detailed information on technical features of a restricted scope PSA aimed at analysing only internal initiating events caused by random component failures and human errors, and accident sequences that may lead to reactor core damage during operation. The present publication extends the scope of the PSA to cover a broader range of internal and external hazards, and low power and shutdown modes of nuclear power plant operation. In addition, some PSA aspects relevant to lessons learned from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant are also considered

The EPR-a comprehensive design concept against external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waas, U.; Stoll, U.

2005-01-01

The main objective of design provisions against external hazards is to ensure that the safety functions required to bring the plant to safe shutdown are not inadmissible affected. In the design of the EPR particular attention was paid to the following external hazards: Earthquake, Airplane crash, Explosion pressure wave. The design concept for these events is discussed below. The standard EPR covers a large range of possible site conditions, the design earthquake enveloping safe shutdown earthquakes (SSE) to be expected for potential sites. The Basic Design was developed for the seismic loads given in the European Utility Requirements with a horizontal free field Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for all site conditions of 0.25 g. The seismic protection is based on a deterministic design approach, with the intention of ensuring the safety functions in case of SSE. The loads for the design basis airplane crash and - if required - for the design extension airplane crash are defined depending on site specific requirements. For the design basis airplane crash as defined in Finland the safety goals are fulfilled for postulated single failure and preventive maintenance as well as for specific unlikely scenarios with local impacts where one redundant train is assumed to be lost. For the design extension airplane crash no single failure and preventive maintenance are assumed. Reactor building (RB), fuel building (FB), safeguard building (SB) 2 and 3 are protected by design against airplane crash. The common base mat of the RB, FB and SBs ensures global stability. To avoid penetration the wall thickness of the outer building structures of RB, FB and SB2/3 is set at 1.80 m (result of an optimization process). To rule out major induced vibrations due to airplane crash the inner building structures are decoupled from the outer walls. The SB 1 and SB4, the main steam and feedwater valve compartments, the diesel buildings and the service water pump buildings are protected against

Analysis of truncation limit in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepin, Marko

2005-01-01

A truncation limit defines the boundaries of what is considered in the probabilistic safety assessment and what is neglected. The truncation limit that is the focus here is the truncation limit on the size of the minimal cut set contribution at which to cut off. A new method was developed, which defines truncation limit in probabilistic safety assessment. The method specifies truncation limits with more stringency than presenting existing documents dealing with truncation criteria in probabilistic safety assessment do. The results of this paper indicate that the truncation limits for more complex probabilistic safety assessments, which consist of larger number of basic events, should be more severe than presently recommended in existing documents if more accuracy is desired. The truncation limits defined by the new method reduce the relative errors of importance measures and produce more accurate results for probabilistic safety assessment applications. The reduced relative errors of importance measures can prevent situations, where the acceptability of change of equipment under investigation according to RG 1.174 would be shifted from region, where changes can be accepted, to region, where changes cannot be accepted, if the results would be calculated with smaller truncation limit

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

2016-01-01

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

Model checking optimal finite-horizon control for probabilistic gene regulatory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Ou; Guo, Zonghao; Niu, Yun; Liao, Wenyuan

2017-12-14

Probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) have been proposed for analyzing external control in gene regulatory networks with incorporation of uncertainty. A context-sensitive PBN with perturbation (CS-PBNp), extending a PBN with context-sensitivity to reflect the inherent biological stability and random perturbations to express the impact of external stimuli, is considered to be more suitable for modeling small biological systems intervened by conditions from the outside. In this paper, we apply probabilistic model checking, a formal verification technique, to optimal control for a CS-PBNp that minimizes the expected cost over a finite control horizon. We first describe a procedure of modeling a CS-PBNp using the language provided by a widely used probabilistic model checker PRISM. We then analyze the reward-based temporal properties and the computation in probabilistic model checking; based on the analysis, we provide a method to formulate the optimal control problem as minimum reachability reward properties. Furthermore, we incorporate control and state cost information into the PRISM code of a CS-PBNp such that automated model checking a minimum reachability reward property on the code gives the solution to the optimal control problem. We conduct experiments on two examples, an apoptosis network and a WNT5A network. Preliminary experiment results show the feasibility and effectiveness of our approach. The approach based on probabilistic model checking for optimal control avoids explicit computation of large-size state transition relations associated with PBNs. It enables a natural depiction of the dynamics of gene regulatory networks, and provides a canonical form to formulate optimal control problems using temporal properties that can be automated solved by leveraging the analysis power of underlying model checking engines. This work will be helpful for further utilization of the advances in formal verification techniques in system biology.

Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

2017-12-01

Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

Probabilistic fuzzy systems as additive fuzzy systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Almeida, R.J.; Verbeek, N.; Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Laurent, A.; Strauss, O.; Bouchon-Meunier, B.; Yager, R.

2014-01-01

Probabilistic fuzzy systems combine a linguistic description of the system behaviour with statistical properties of data. It was originally derived based on Zadeh’s concept of probability of a fuzzy event. Two possible and equivalent additive reasoning schemes were proposed, that lead to the

IPEEE review of external events of the Asco I nuclear plant; Revision del IPEEE de sucesos externos de la Central Nuclear Asco I

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aleman, A.; Canadell, F.; Beltran, F.; Pifarre, D.; Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.

2012-07-01

During the risk analysis update of Asco PP (2010), it has been carried out a review of the vulnerabilities against severe accidents caused by external events (individual Plant Examination of external Events, IPEEE). The assessment has included analysis of accidents in industrial and military facilities nearby and transportation accidents (i.e., rail, road and aircraft impact) release of hazardous materials on site, external flooding, turbine missiles and strong winds. (Author)

GUI program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Jin Soo; Chi, H. C.; Cho, J. C.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. G.; Im, I. S.

2005-12-01

The first stage of development of program to compute probabilistic seismic hazard is completed based on Graphic User Interface (GUI). The main program consists of three part - the data input processes, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and result output processes. The first part has developed and others are developing now in this term. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis needs various input data which represent attenuation formulae, seismic zoning map, and earthquake event catalog. The input procedure of previous programs based on text interface take a much time to prepare the data. The data cannot be checked directly on screen to prevent input erroneously in existing methods. The new program simplifies the input process and enable to check the data graphically in order to minimize the artificial error within the limits of the possibility

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

PROBABILISTIC CROSS-IDENTIFICATION OF COSMIC EVENTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budavari, Tamas

2011-01-01

I discuss a novel approach to identifying cosmic events in separate and independent observations. The focus is on the true events, such as supernova explosions, that happen once and, hence, whose measurements are not repeatable. Their classification and analysis must make the best use of all available data. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to associate streams of events in space and time. Probabilities are assigned to the matches by studying their rates of occurrence. A case study of Type Ia supernovae illustrates how to use light curves in the cross-identification process. Constraints from realistic light curves happen to be well approximated by Gaussians in time, which makes the matching process very efficient. Model-dependent associations are computationally more demanding but can further boost one's confidence.

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

Accuracy of the Bethe approximation for hyperparameter estimation in probabilistic image processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kazuyuki; Shouno, Hayaru; Okada, Masato; Titterington, D M

2004-01-01

We investigate the accuracy of statistical-mechanical approximations for the estimation of hyperparameters from observable data in probabilistic image processing, which is based on Bayesian statistics and maximum likelihood estimation. Hyperparameters in statistical science correspond to interactions or external fields in the statistical-mechanics context. In this paper, hyperparameters in the probabilistic model are determined so as to maximize a marginal likelihood. A practical algorithm is described for grey-level image restoration based on a Gaussian graphical model and the Bethe approximation. The algorithm corresponds to loopy belief propagation in artificial intelligence. We examine the accuracy of hyperparameter estimation when we use the Bethe approximation. It is well known that a practical algorithm for probabilistic image processing can be prescribed analytically when a Gaussian graphical model is adopted as a prior probabilistic model in Bayes' formula. We are therefore able to compare, in a numerical study, results obtained through mean-field-type approximations with those based on exact calculation

Comorbidity in illness-induced posttraumatic stress disorder versus posttraumatic stress disorder due to external events in a nationally representative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Jordana L; Mota, Natalie; Edmondson, Donald; El-Gabalawy, Renée

2018-05-10

The current study compared physical and mental health characteristics and quality of life of illness-induced posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) versus those with PTSD due to external traumatic events in a population-based sample. PTSD was assessed with the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule (AUDADIS-5) using DSM-5 criteria in the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Participants with past-year PTSD (n = 1779) were categorized into two groups: illness-induced (6.5%) and other trauma-induced PTSD (92.9%) based on index trauma. Group differences in physical health, mental health, and quality of life were estimated using multiple logistic and linear regressions with adjustment for demographics and medical morbidity. Compared to PTSD due to external events, illness-induced PTSD had higher rates of life-threatening illness in the past year. Illness-induced PTSD compared to PTSD due to external events was associated with reduced odds of depressive/bipolar disorders and antisocial personality disorder, but increased odds of cannabis use disorder. The groups did not differ on quality of life after accounting for medical morbidity. Illness-induced PTSD is common among American adults and has a similar impact on quality of life as PTSD due to external events, but may have distinct mental health correlates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IPEEE Review of other external events of the NPP Asco; Revision del IPEEE de sucesos externos de C.N. Asco

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Canadell, F.; Aleman, A.; Beltran, F.; Pifarre, D.; Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.

2011-07-01

Within the process of maintaining and updating the risk analysis of the NPP Asco, results from the review of the vulnerability study of the plant against severe accidents caused by external success (Individual Plant Examination of External Events, IPEEE).

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model towards increasing the lead-time of flash flood forecasts in South Africa. ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based rainfall forecasts are verified against rainfall estimated by the SAFFG system. The approach ...

Bounding probabilistic safety assessment probabilities by reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fragola, J.R.; Shooman, M.L.

1991-01-01

The investigation of the failure in systems where failure is a rare event makes the continual comparisons between the developed probabilities and empirical evidence difficult. The comparison of the predictions of rare event risk assessments with historical reality is essential to prevent probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) predictions from drifting into fantasy. One approach to performing such comparisons is to search out and assign probabilities to natural events which, while extremely rare, have a basis in the history of natural phenomena or human activities. For example the Segovian aqueduct and some of the Roman fortresses in Spain have existed for several millennia and in many cases show no physical signs of earthquake damage. This evidence could be used to bound the probability of earthquakes above a certain magnitude to less than 10 -3 per year. On the other hand, there is evidence that some repetitive actions can be performed with extremely low historical probabilities when operators are properly trained and motivated, and sufficient warning indicators are provided. The point is not that low probability estimates are impossible, but continual reassessment of the analysis assumptions, and a bounding of the analysis predictions by historical reality. This paper reviews the probabilistic predictions of PSA in this light, attempts to develop, in a general way, the limits which can be historically established and the consequent bounds that these limits place upon the predictions, and illustrates the methodology used in computing such limits. Further, the paper discusses the use of empirical evidence and the requirement for disciplined systematic approaches within the bounds of reality and the associated impact on PSA probabilistic estimates

Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

2010-07-15

Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazard analysis of typhoon-related external events using extreme value theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yo Chan; Jang, Seung Cheol [Integrated Safety Assessment Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Tae Jin [Dept. of Industrial Information Systems Engineering, Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

The Contrast Effect in Temporal and Probabilistic Discounting

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Cheng; He, Guibing

2016-01-01

In this information age, messages related to time, and uncertainty surround us. At the same time, our daily lives are filled with decisions accompanied by temporal delay or uncertainty. Will such information influence our temporal and probabilistic discounting? The authors address this question from the perspectives of decision by sampling (DbS) theory and psychological distance theory. Studies 1 and 2 investigated the effect of contextual messages on temporal discounting and probabilistic discounting, respectively. The results indicated that participants who memorized messages about long-term and low-probability events rated delay or uncertainty as mentally closer and exhibited a less degree of value discounting than those who memorized messages regarding short-term and high-probability events. In addition, a sense of distance from present or reality mediated the effect of contextual messages on value discounting. The implications of the current findings for theory and applications are discussed. PMID:27014122

Level 2 probabilistic event analyses and quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boneham, P.

2003-01-01

In this paper an example of quantification of a severe accident phenomenological event is given. The performed analysis for assessment of the probability that the debris released from the reactor vessel was in a coolable configuration in the lower drywell is presented. It is also analysed the assessment of the type of core/concrete attack that would occur. The coolability of the debris ex-vessel evaluation by an event in the Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) Containment Event Tree (CET) and a detailed Decomposition Event Tree (DET) developed to aid in the quantification of this CET event are considered. The headings in the DET selected to represent plant physical states (e.g., reactor vessel pressure at the time of vessel failure) and the uncertainties associated with the occurrence of critical physical phenomena (e.g., debris configuration in the lower drywell) considered important to assessing whether the debris was coolable or not coolable ex-vessel are also discussed

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, Eric L.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Gove, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.

Review IPEEE C.N. external event Vandellos II; Revision del IPEEE de otros sucesos externos de C.N. Vandellos II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.; Beltran, F.; Salvat, M.; Pifarre, D.; Canadell, F.; Aleman, A.

2010-07-01

Within the process of maintaining and updating the risk analysis of CN Vandellos II, results from the review of the study of vulnerability of the plant against severe accidents caused by external events (Individual Plant Examination on Extornal Events, IPEEE).

Probabilistic flood forecasting tool for Andalusia (Spain). Application to September 2012 disaster event in Vera Playa.

Science.gov (United States)

García, Darío; Baquerizo, Asunción; Ortega, Miguel; Herrero, Javier; Ángel Losada, Miguel

2013-04-01

Torrential and heavy rains are frequent in Andalusia (Southern Spain) due to the characteristic Mediterranean climate (semi-arid areas). This, in combination with a massive occupation of floodable (river sides) and coastal areas, produces severe problems of management and damage to the population and social and economical activities when extreme events occur. Some of the most important problems are being produced during last years in Almería (Southeastern Andalusia). Between 27 and 28 September 2012 rainstorms characterized by 240mm in 24h (exceeding precipitation for a return period of 500 years) occurred. Antas River and Jático creek, that are normally dry, became raging torrents. The massive flooding of occupied areas resulted in eleven deaths and two missing in Andalucía, with a total estimated cost of all claims for compensation on the order of 197 million euros. This study presents a probabilistic flood forecasting tool including the effect of river and marine forcings. It is based on a distributed, physically-based hydrological model (WiMMed). For Almería the model has been calibrated with the largest event recorded in Cantoria gauging station (data since 1965) on 19 October 1973. It was then validated with the second strongest event (26 October 1977). Among the different results of the model, it can provide probability floods scenarios in Andalusia with up 10 days weather forecasts. The tool has been applied to Vera, a 15.000 inhabitants town located in the east of Almería along the Antas River at an altitude of 95 meters. Its main economic resource is the "beach and sun" based-tourism, which has experienced an enormous growth during last decades. Its coastal stretch has been completely built in these years, occupying floodable areas and constricting the channel and rivers mouths. Simulations of the model in this area for the 1973 event and published in March 2011 on the internet event already announced that the floods of September 2012 may occur.

Extremely intense (SML ≤–2500 nT substorms: isolated events that are externally triggered?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. T. Tsurutani

2015-05-01

Full Text Available We examine particularly intense substorms (SML ≤–2500 nT, hereafter called "supersubstorms" or SSS events, to identify their nature and their magnetic storm dependences. It is found that these intense substorms are typically isolated events and are only loosely related to magnetic storms. SSS events can occur during super (Dst ≤–250 nT and intense (−100 nT ≥ Dst >–250 magnetic storms. SSS events can also occur during nonstorm (Dst ≥–50 nT intervals. SSSs are important because the strongest ionospheric currents will flow during these events, potentially causing power outages on Earth. Several SSS examples are shown. SSS events appear to be externally triggered by small regions of very high density (~30 to 50 cm−3 solar wind plasma parcels (PPs impinging upon the magnetosphere. Precursor southward interplanetary magnetic fields are detected prior to the PPs hitting the magnetosphere. Our hypothesis is that these southward fields input energy into the magnetosphere/magnetotail and the PPs trigger the release of the stored energy.

A Methodology for Probabilistic Accident Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munteanu, Ion; Aldemir, Tunc

2003-01-01

While techniques have been developed to tackle different tasks in accident management, there have been very few attempts to develop an on-line operator assistance tool for accident management and none that can be found in the literature that uses probabilistic arguments, which are important in today's licensing climate. The state/parameter estimation capability of the dynamic system doctor (DSD) approach is combined with the dynamic event-tree generation capability of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology to address this issue. The DSD uses the cell-to-cell mapping technique for system representation that models the system evolution in terms of probability of transitions in time between sets of user-defined parameter/state variable magnitude intervals (cells) within a user-specified time interval (e.g., data sampling interval). The cell-to-cell transition probabilities are obtained from the given system model. The ISA follows the system dynamics in tree form and braches every time a setpoint for system/operator intervention is exceeded. The combined approach (a) can automatically account for uncertainties in the monitored system state, inputs, and modeling uncertainties through the appropriate choice of the cells, as well as providing a probabilistic measure to rank the likelihood of possible system states in view of these uncertainties; (b) allows flexibility in system representation; (c) yields the lower and upper bounds on the estimated values of state variables/parameters as well as their expected values; and (d) leads to fewer branchings in the dynamic event-tree generation. Using a simple but realistic pressurizer model, the potential use of the DSD-ISA methodology for on-line probabilistic accident management is illustrated

A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derby, S.L.

1983-01-01

The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

iROCS: Integrated accident management framework for coping with beyond-design-basis external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jaewhan; Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Yang, Joon-Eon

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An integrated mitigating strategy to cope with extreme external events, iROCS, is proposed. • The strategy aims to preserve the integrity of the reactor vessel as well as core cooling. • A case study for an extreme damage state is performed to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of candidate mitigation strategies under an extreme event. - Abstract: The Fukushima Daiichi accident induced by the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, poses a new challenge to the nuclear society, especially from an accident management viewpoint. This paper presents a new accident management framework called an integrated, RObust Coping Strategy (iROCS) to cope with beyond-design-basis external events (BDBEEs). The iROCS approach is characterized by classification of various plant damage conditions (PDCs) that might be impacted by BDBEEs and corresponding integrated coping strategies for each of PDCs, aiming to maintain and restore core cooling (i.e., to prevent core damage) and to maintain the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel if it is judged that core damage may not be preventable in view of plant conditions. From a case study for an extreme damage condition, it showed that candidate accident management strategies should be evaluated from the viewpoint of effectiveness and feasibility against accident scenarios and extreme damage conditions of the site, especially when employing mobile or portable equipment under BDBEEs within the limited time available to achieve desired goals such as prevention of core damage as well as a reactor vessel failure.

Probabilistic insurance

OpenAIRE

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic i...

A Probabilistic and Observation Based Methodology to Estimate Small Craft Harbor Vulnerability to Tsunami Events

Science.gov (United States)

Keen, A. S.; Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.

2016-12-01

Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft marinas in California has become an important concern. The talk will outline an assessment tool which can be used to assess the tsunami hazard to small craft harbors. The methodology is based on the demand and structural capacity of the floating dock system, composed of floating docks/fingers and moored vessels. The structural demand is determined using a Monte Carlo methodology. Monte Carlo methodology is a probabilistic computational tool where the governing might be well known, but the independent variables of the input (demand) as well as the resisting structural components (capacity) may not be completely known. The Monte Carlo approach uses a distribution of each variable, and then uses that random variable within the described parameters, to generate a single computation. The process then repeats hundreds or thousands of times. The numerical model "Method of Splitting Tsunamis" (MOST) has been used to determine the inputs for the small craft harbors within California. Hydrodynamic model results of current speed, direction and surface elevation were incorporated via the drag equations to provide the bases of the demand term. To determine the capacities, an inspection program was developed to identify common features of structural components. A total of six harbors have been inspected ranging from Crescent City in Northern California to Oceanside Harbor in Southern California. Results from the inspection program were used to develop component capacity tables which incorporated the basic specifications of each component (e.g. bolt size and configuration) and a reduction factor (which accounts for the component reduction in capacity with age) to estimate in situ capacities. Like the demand term, these capacities are added probabilistically into the model. To date the model has been applied to Santa Cruz Harbor as well as Noyo River. Once

Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

2013-06-01

The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

Development of reliability databases and the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meslin, T.

1989-01-01

Nuclear utilities have an increasing need to develop reliability databases for their operating experience. The purposes of these databases are often multiple, including both equipment maintenance aspects and probabilistic risk analyses. EDF has therefore been developing experience feedback databases, including the Reliability Data Recording System (SRDF) and the Event File, as well as the history of numerous operating documents. Furthermore, since the end of 1985, EDF has been preparing a probabilistic safety analysis applied to one 1,300 MWe unit, for which a large amount of data of French origin is necessary. This data concerns both component reliability parameters and initiating event frequencies. The study has thus been an opportunity for trying out the performance databases for a specific application, as well as in-depth audits of a number of nuclear sites to make it possible to validate numerous results. Computer aided data collection is also on trial in a number of plants. After describing the EDF operating experience feedback files, we discuss the particular requirements of probabilistic risk analyses, and the resources implemented by EDF to satisfy them. (author). 5 refs

Generic event trees and the treatment of dependencies and non-proceduralized actions in a low power and shutdown Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forester, J.; Yakle, J.; Whitehead, D.; Darby, J.

1993-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories was tasked by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to perform a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of a boiling water reactor (BWR) during low power and shutdown (LP ampersand S) conditions. The plant chosen for the study was Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (GGNS), a BWR 6. In performing the analysis, it was found that in comparison with full-power PRAs, the low decay heat levels present during LP ampersand S conditions result in a relatively large number of ways by which cooling can be provided to the core. In addition, because of the less stringent requirements imposed on system configurations possible is large and the availability of plant systems is more difficult to specify. These aspects of the LP ampersand S environment led to the development and use of ''generic'' event trees in performing the analysis. The use of ''generic'' event trees, in turn, had a significant impact on the nature of the human reliability analysis (HRA) that was performed. This paper describes the development of the event trees for the LP ampersand S PRA and important aspects of the resulting HRA

The EPR-a comprehensive design concept against external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, U.; Waas, U.

2006-01-01

The main objective of design provisions against external hazards is to ensure that the safety functions required to bring the plant to safe shutdown are not inadmissibly affected by any external hazards that might be postulated for the intended site of the plant. In the design of the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR) particular attention was paid to external hazards such as earthquake, airplane crash, and explosion pressure wave. The standard EPR covers a large range of possible site conditions, the design earthquake enveloping safe shutdown earthquakes (SSE) to be expected for potential sites. The loads for the design basis airplane crash and - if required - for the design extension airplane crash as well as for external Explosion Pressure Wave are defined depending on site specific requirements. Protection against other external load cases such as extreme winds and external flooding is also included in the standard design

Prospects for probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.

1992-01-01

This article provides some reflections on future developments of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) in view of the present state of the art and evaluates current trends in the use of PSA for safety management. The main emphasis is on Level 1 PSA, although Level 2 aspects are also highlighted to some extent. As a starting point, the role of PSA is outlined from a historical perspective, demonstrating the rapid expansion of the uses of PSA. In this context the wide spectrum of PSA applications and the associated benefits to the users are in focus. It should be kept in mind, however, that PSA, in spite of its merits, is not a self-standing safety tool. It complements deterministic analysis and thus improves understanding and facilitating prioritization of safety issues. Significant progress in handling PSA limitations - such as reliability data, common-cause failures, human interactions, external events, accident progression, containment performance, and source-term issues - is described. This forms a background for expected future developments of PSA. Among the most important issues on the agenda for the future are PSA scope extensions, methodological improvements and computer code advancements, and full exploitation of the potential benefits of applications to operational safety management. Many PSA uses, if properly exercised, lead to safety improvements as well as major burden reductions. The article provides, in addition, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) perspective on the topics covered, as reflected in the current PSA programs of the agency. 74 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

Using Physical Context-Based Authentication against External Attacks: Models and Protocols

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilson S. Melo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Modern systems are increasingly dependent on the integration of physical processes and information technologies. This trend is remarkable in applications involving sensor networks, cyberphysical systems, and Internet of Things. Despite its complexity, such integration results in physical context information that can be used to improve security, especially authentication. In this paper, we show that entities sharing the same physical context can use it for establishing a secure communication channel and protecting each other against external attacks. We present such approach proposing a theoretical model for generating unique bitstreams. Two different protocols are suggested. Each one is evaluated using probabilistic analysis and simulation. In the end, we implement the authentication mechanism in a case study using networks radio signal as physical event generator. The results demonstrate the performance of each of the protocols and their suitability for applications in real world.

Progress in methodology for probabilistic assessment of accidents: timing of accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanore, J.M.; Villeroux, C.; Bouscatie, F.; Maigret, N.

1981-09-01

There is an important problem for probabilistic studies of accident sequences using the current event tree techniques. Indeed this method does not take into account the dependence in time of the real accident scenarios, involving the random behaviour of the systems (lack or delay in intervention, partial failures, repair, operator actions ...) and the correlated evolution of the physical parameters. A powerful method to perform the probabilistic treatment of these complex sequences (dynamic evolution of systems and associated physics) is Monte-Carlo simulation, very rare events being treated with the help of suitable weighting and biasing techniques. As a practical example the accident sequences related to the loss of the residual heat removal system in a fast breeder reactor has been treated with that method

Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1985-01-01

During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key

Probabilistic modelling of drought events in China via 2-dimensional joint copula

Science.gov (United States)

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Javed, Tehseen; Yao, Ning

2018-04-01

Probabilistic modelling of drought events is a significant aspect of water resources management and planning. In this study, popularly applied and several relatively new bivariate Archimedean copulas were employed to derive regional and spatial based copula models to appraise drought risk in mainland China over 1961-2013. Drought duration (Dd), severity (Ds), and peak (Dp), as indicated by Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were extracted according to the run theory and fitted with suitable marginal distributions. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and curve fitting method (CFM) were used to estimate the copula parameters of nineteen bivariate Archimedean copulas. Drought probabilities and return periods were analysed based on appropriate bivariate copula in sub-region I-VII and entire mainland China. The goodness-of-fit tests as indicated by the CFM showed that copula NN19 in sub-regions III, IV, V, VI and mainland China, NN20 in sub-region I and NN13 in sub-region VII are the best for modeling drought variables. Bivariate drought probability across mainland China is relatively high, and the highest drought probabilities are found mainly in the Northwestern and Southwestern China. Besides, the result also showed that different sub-regions might suffer varying drought risks. The drought risks as observed in Sub-region III, VI and VII, are significantly greater than other sub-regions. Higher probability of droughts of longer durations in the sub-regions also corresponds to shorter return periods with greater drought severity. These results may imply tremendous challenges for the water resources management in different sub-regions, particularly the Northwestern and Southwestern China.

The analysis of probability task completion; Taxonomy of probabilistic thinking-based across gender in elementary school students

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

2017-08-01

Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.

Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A. (Edward A.)

2002-01-01

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrence results are used to validate finite element predictions.

Development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards. (2) Tornado PRA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for external events has been recognized as an important safety assessment method after the TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident. The PRA should be performed not only for earthquake and tsunami which are especially key events in Japan, but also the PRA methodology should be developed for the other external hazards (e.g. tornado). In this study, the methodology was developed for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors paying attention to that the ambient air is their final heat sink for removing decay heat under accident conditions. First, tornado hazard curve was estimated by using data recorded in Japan. Second, important structures and components for decay heat removal were identified and an event tree resulting in core damage was developed in terms of wind load and missiles (i.e. steel pipes, boards and cars) caused by a tornado. Main damage cause for important structures and components is the missiles and the tornado missiles that can reach those components and structures placed on high elevations were identified, and the failure probabilities of the components and structures against the tornado missiles were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or outtake in the decay heat removal system, and a probability of failure caused by the missile impacts. Finally, the event tree was quantified. As a result, the core damage frequency was enough lower than 10 -10 /ry. (author)

Reasoning about complex probabilistic concepts in childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, John E; Bury, Angela S; Holden, Rachel

2006-12-01

The competencies of children, particularly their understanding of the more complex probabilistic concepts, have not been thoroughly investigated. In the present study participants were required to choose the more likely of two events, a single event, and a joint event (conjunctive or disjunctive). It was predicted that the operation of the representativeness heuristic would result in erroneous judgements when children compared an unlikely component event with a likely-unlikely conjunction (the conjunction fallacy) and when a likely component event was compared to a likely-unlikely disjunction. The results supported the first prediction with both older children aged between 9 and 10 years and younger children aged between 4 and 5 committing the conjunction fallacy. However, the second prediction was not confirmed. It is proposed that the basis of representativeness judgements may differ between the conjunctive and disjunctive cases with absolute frequency information possibly playing a differential role.

Significant aspects of the external event analysis methodology of the Jose Cabrera NPP PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barquin Duena, A.; Martin Martinez, A.R.; Boneham, P.S.; Ortega Prieto, P.

1994-01-01

This paper describes the following advances in the methodology for Analysis of External Events in the PSA of the Jose Cabrera NPP: In the Fire Analysis, a version of the COMPBRN3 CODE, modified by Empresarios Agrupados according to the guidelines of Appendix D of the NUREG/CR-5088, has been used. Generic cases were modelled and general conclusions obtained, applicable to fire propagation in closed areas. The damage times obtained were appreciably lower than those obtained with the previous version of the code. The Flood Analysis methodology is based on the construction of event trees to represent flood propagation dependent on the condition of the communication paths between areas, and trees showing propagation stages as a function of affected areas and damaged mitigation equipment. To determine temporary evolution of the flood area level, the CAINZO-EA code has been developed, adapted to specific plant characteristics. In both the Fire and Flood Analyses a quantification methodology has been adopted, which consists of analysing the damages caused at each stage of growth or propagation and identifying, in the Internal Events models, the gates, basic events or headers to which safe failure (probability 1) due to damages is assigned. (Author)

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

2017-10-30

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

Probabilistic safety assessment model in consideration of human factors based on object-oriented bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Zhongbao; Zhou Jinglun; Sun Quan

2007-01-01

Effect of Human factors on system safety is increasingly serious, which is often ignored in traditional probabilistic safety assessment methods however. A new probabilistic safety assessment model based on object-oriented Bayesian networks is proposed in this paper. Human factors are integrated into the existed event sequence diagrams. Then the classes of the object-oriented Bayesian networks are constructed which are converted to latent Bayesian networks for inference. Finally, the inference results are integrated into event sequence diagrams for probabilistic safety assessment. The new method is applied to the accident of loss of coolant in a nuclear power plant. the results show that the model is not only applicable to real-time situation assessment, but also applicable to situation assessment based certain amount of information. The modeling complexity is kept down and the new method is appropriate to large complex systems due to the thoughts of object-oriented. (authors)

Probabilistic biological network alignment.

Science.gov (United States)

Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2013-01-01

Interactions between molecules are probabilistic events. An interaction may or may not happen with some probability, depending on a variety of factors such as the size, abundance, or proximity of the interacting molecules. In this paper, we consider the problem of aligning two biological networks. Unlike existing methods, we allow one of the two networks to contain probabilistic interactions. Allowing interaction probabilities makes the alignment more biologically relevant at the expense of explosive growth in the number of alternative topologies that may arise from different subsets of interactions that take place. We develop a novel method that efficiently and precisely characterizes this massive search space. We represent the topological similarity between pairs of aligned molecules (i.e., proteins) with the help of random variables and compute their expected values. We validate our method showing that, without sacrificing the running time performance, it can produce novel alignments. Our results also demonstrate that our method identifies biologically meaningful mappings under a comprehensive set of criteria used in the literature as well as the statistical coherence measure that we developed to analyze the statistical significance of the similarity of the functions of the aligned protein pairs.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Nagpal, V. K.

1985-01-01

A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.

Precursor analyses - The use of deterministic and PSA based methods in the event investigation process at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-09-01

The efficient feedback of operating experience (OE) is a valuable source of information for improving the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants (NPPs). It is therefore essential to collect information on abnormal events from both internal and external sources. Internal operating experience is analysed to obtain a complete understanding of an event and of its safety implications. Corrective or improvement measures may then be developed, prioritized and implemented in the plant if considered appropriate. Information from external events may also be analysed in order to learn lessons from others' experience and prevent similar occurrences at our own plant. The traditional ways of investigating operational events have been predominantly qualitative. In recent years, a PSA-based method called probabilistic precursor event analysis has been developed, used and applied on a significant scale in many places for a number of plants. The method enables a quantitative estimation of the safety significance of operational events to be incorporated. The purpose of this report is to outline a synergistic process that makes more effective use of operating experience event information by combining the insights and knowledge gained from both approaches, traditional deterministic event investigation and PSA-based event analysis. The PSA-based view on operational events and PSA-based event analysis can support the process of operational event analysis at the following stages of the operational event investigation: (1) Initial screening stage. (It introduces an element of quantitative analysis into the selection process. Quantitative analysis of the safety significance of nuclear plant events can be a very useful measure when it comes to selecting internal and external operating experience information for its relevance.) (2) In-depth analysis. (PSA based event evaluation provides a quantitative measure for judging the significance of operational events, contributors to

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

Design of robust reliable control for T-S fuzzy Markovian jumping delayed neutral type neural networks with probabilistic actuator faults and leakage delays: An event-triggered communication scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Syed Ali, M; Vadivel, R; Saravanakumar, R

2018-06-01

This study examines the problem of robust reliable control for Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy Markovian jumping delayed neural networks with probabilistic actuator faults and leakage terms. An event-triggered communication scheme. First, the randomly occurring actuator faults and their failures rates are governed by two sets of unrelated random variables satisfying certain probabilistic failures of every actuator, new type of distribution based event triggered fault model is proposed, which utilize the effect of transmission delay. Second, Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model is adopted for the neural networks and the randomness of actuators failures is modeled in a Markov jump model framework. Third, to guarantee the considered closed-loop system is exponential mean square stable with a prescribed reliable control performance, a Markov jump event-triggered scheme is designed in this paper, which is the main purpose of our study. Fourth, by constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, employing Newton-Leibniz formulation and integral inequalities, several delay-dependent criteria for the solvability of the addressed problem are derived. The obtained stability criteria are stated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be checked numerically using the effective LMI toolbox in MATLAB. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and reduced conservatism of the proposed results over the existing ones, among them one example was supported by real-life application of the benchmark problem. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Rule Generator: A new methodology of variable-valued logic synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, W.D.; Ray, S.R.

1986-01-01

A new methodology to synthesize variable-valued logic formulas from training data events is presented. Probablistic Rule Generator (PRG) employs not only information-theoretic entropy as a heuristic to capture a path expression but also multiple-valued logic to expand a captured complex. PRG is efficient for capturing major clusters in the event space, and is more general than previous methodologies in providing probabilistic features

Dynamic Fault Diagnosis for Nuclear Installation Using Probabilistic Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Djoko Hari Nugroho; Deswandri; Ahmad Abtokhi; Darlis

2003-01-01

Probabilistic based fault diagnosis which represent the relationship between cause and consequence of the events for trouble shooting is developed in this research based on Bayesian Networks. Contribution of on-line data comes from sensors and system/component reliability in node cause is expected increasing the belief level of Bayesian Networks. (author)

Procedural and submittal guidance for the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE) for severe accident vulnerabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, J.T.; Chokshi, N.C.; Kenneally, R.M.; Kelly, G.B.; Beckner, W.D.; McCracken, C.; Murphy, A.J.; Reiter, L.; Jeng, D.

1991-06-01

Based on a Policy statement on Severe Accidents, the licensee of each nuclear power plant is requested to perform an individual plant examination. The plant examination systematically looks for vulnerabilities to severe accidents and cost-effective safety improvements that reduce or eliminate the important vulnerabilities. This document presents guidance for performing and reporting the results of the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE). The guidance for reporting the results of the individual plant examination of internal events (IPE) is presented in NUREG-1335. 53 refs., 1 figs., 2 tabs

On Probabilistic Alpha-Fuzzy Fixed Points and Related Convergence Results in Probabilistic Metric and Menger Spaces under Some Pompeiu-Hausdorff-Like Probabilistic Contractive Conditions

OpenAIRE

De la Sen, M.

2015-01-01

In the framework of complete probabilistic metric spaces and, in particular, in probabilistic Menger spaces, this paper investigates some relevant properties of convergence of sequences to probabilistic α-fuzzy fixed points under some types of probabilistic contractive conditions.

Probabilistic assessment of SGTR management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Champ, M.; Cornille, Y.; Lanore, J.M.

1989-04-01

In case of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event, in France, the mitigation of accident relies on operator intervention, by applying a specific accidental procedure. A detailed probabilistic analysis has been conducted which required the assessment of the failure probability of the operator actions, and for that purpose it was necessary to estimate the time available for the operator to apply the adequate procedure for various sequences. The results indicate that by taking into account the delays and the existence of adequate accidental procedures, the risk is reduced to a reasonably low level

Probabilistic safety analysis using microcomputer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Futuro Filho, F.L.F.; Mendes, J.E.S.; Santos, M.J.P. dos

1990-01-01

The main steps of execution of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) are presented in this report, as the study of the system description, construction of event trees and fault trees, and the calculation of overall unavailability of the systems. It is also presented the use of microcomputer in performing some tasks, highlightning the main characteristics of a software to perform adequately the job. A sample case of fault tree construction and calculation is presented, using the PSAPACK software, distributed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for training purpose. (author)

Representation of human behaviour in probabilistic safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whittingham, R.B.

1991-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the representation of human behaviour in probabilistic safety assessment. Human performance problems which may result in errors leading to accidents are considered in terms of methods of identification using task analysis, screening analysis of critical errors, representation and quantification of human errors in fault trees and event trees and error reduction measures. (author) figs., tabs., 43 refs

Probabilistic Insurance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. These observations cannot be

Probabilistic Insurance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter); R.H. Thaler (Richard); A. Tversky (Amos)

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamano, Hidemasa, E-mail: yamano.hidemasa@jaea.go.jp; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

2016-11-15

Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

Notes and meeting overviews on PSAM 2013 and probabilistic flood hazard assessment workshop. Overview notes: workshop on probabilistic flood hazard assessment (PFHA) and PSAM topical conference in light of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, Nathan

2014-01-01

The aim of this presentation was to present objectives and main observations from two recent important events: - a multi-agency PFHA workshop, which was organized by the NRC in Rockville, MD, USA on 29-31 January 2013 with the aim to share information on extreme flood assessments and PSA, and to discuss ways to develop PFHA for PSAs; this workshop highlighted commonalities between the PFHA and PSA communities, the complementarity between deterministic and probabilistic approaches, the need for multi-disciplinary teams, and the need for imagination when performing PFHA; and - the PSAM Topical Conference held in Tokyo, Japan, on April 15-17, 2013 and dedicated to sharing lessons and on-going activities relevant to the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactor accidents; in particular the lessons for safety professionals and risk-informed decision makers (e.g., the need to challenge assumptions and to listen to experts and interact with international community). One notable observation was the recurring nature of some of these issues as many relevant conclusions had been made following previous operating events (e.g., after the Blayais flooding event in 1999). For example, the Blayais event highlighted the possibility that a common mode of degradation of the safety level could simultaneously impact all the units at a site, weaknesses in the site protection against external flooding and the need to manage the release of water collected in the flooded facilities. This underscores the need to fully consider the lessons learned from operating experience

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

2007-01-01

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

Lessons learned from external hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peinador, Miguel; Zerger, Benoit [European Commisison Joint Research Centre, Petten (Netherlands). Inst. for Energy and Transport; Ramos, Manuel Martin [European Commission Joint Research Centre, Brussels (Belgium). Nuclear Safety and Security Coordination; Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koeln (Germany)

2014-01-15

This paper presents a study performed by the European Clearinghouse of the Joint Research Centre on Operational Experience for nuclear power plants in cooperation with IRSN and GRS covering events reported by nuclear power plants in relation to external hazards. It summarizes the review of 235 event reports from 3 different databases. The events were grouped in 9 categories according to the nature of the external hazard involved, and the specific lessons learned and recommendations that can be derived from each of these categories are presented. Additional 'cross-cutting' recommendations covering several or all the external hazards considered are also discussed. These recommendations can be useful in preventing this type of events from happening again or in limiting their consequences. The study was launched in 2010 and therefore it does not cover the Fukushima event. This paper presents the main findings and recommendations raised by this study. (orig.)

Probabilistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

2001-01-01

This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs.......This article describes the basic ideas and algorithms behind specification and inference in probabilistic networks based on directed acyclic graphs, undirected graphs, and chain graphs....

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Probabilistic-Multiobjective Comparison of User-Defined Operating Rules. Case Study: Hydropower Dam in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paola Bianucci

2015-03-01

Full Text Available A useful tool is proposed in this paper to assist dam managers in comparing and selecting suitable operating rules. This procedure is based on well-known multiobjective and probabilistic methodologies, which were jointly applied here to assess and compare flood control strategies in hydropower reservoirs. The procedure consisted of evaluating the operating rules’ performance using a simulation fed by a representative and sufficiently large flood event series. These flood events were obtained from a synthetic rainfall series stochastically generated by using the RainSimV3 model coupled with a deterministic hydrological model. The performance of the assessed strategies was characterized using probabilistic variables. Finally, evaluation and comparison were conducted by analyzing objective functions which synthesize different aspects of the rules’ performance. These objectives were probabilistically defined in terms of risk and expected values. To assess the applicability and flexibility of the tool, it was implemented in a hydropower dam located in Galicia (Northern Spain. This procedure allowed alternative operating rule to be derived which provided a reasonable trade-off between dam safety, flood control, operability and energy production.

On the Measurement and Properties of Ambiguity in Probabilistic Expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Pickett, Justin T.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Bushway, Shawn

2015-01-01

Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

Probabilistic Logical Characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto

2011-01-01

Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....

Probabilistic metric spaces

CERN Document Server

Schweizer, B

2005-01-01

Topics include special classes of probabilistic metric spaces, topologies, and several related structures, such as probabilistic normed and inner-product spaces. 1983 edition, updated with 3 new appendixes. Includes 17 illustrations.

Probabilistic record linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

2016-06-01

Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a 'black box' research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Application of probabilistic methods to accident analysis at waste management facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banz, I.

1986-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment is a technique used to systematically analyze complex technical systems, such as nuclear waste management facilities, in order to identify and measure their public health, environmental, and economic risks. Probabilistic techniques have been utilized at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, to evaluate the probability of a catastrophic waste hoist accident. A probability model was developed to represent the hoisting system, and fault trees were constructed to identify potential sequences of events that could result in a hoist accident. Quantification of the fault trees using statistics compiled by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) indicated that the annual probability of a catastrophic hoist accident at WIPP is less than one in 60 million. This result allowed classification of a catastrophic hoist accident as ''not credible'' at WIPP per DOE definition. Potential uses of probabilistic techniques at other waste management facilities are discussed

Relations of Parenting and Temperament to Chinese Children's Experience of Negative Life Events, Coping Efficacy, and Externalizing Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qing; Wang, Yun; Deng, Xianli; Eisenberg, Nancy; Wolchik, Sharlene A.; Tein, Jenn-Yun

2008-01-01

The relations of parenting and temperament (effortful control and anger/frustration) to children's externalizing problems were examined in a 3.8-year longitudinal study of 425 native Chinese children (6-9 years) from Beijing. Children's experience of negative life events and coping efficacy were examined as mediators in the parenting- and…

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics of Reactor Pressure Vessels with Populations of Flaws

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spencer, Benjamin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Backman, Marie [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Williams, Paul [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hoffman, William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Dickson, Terry [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bass, B. Richard [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Klasky, Hilda [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2016-09-01

This report documents recent progress in developing a tool that uses the Grizzly and RAVEN codes to perform probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses of reactor pressure vessels in light water reactor nuclear power plants. The Grizzly code is being developed with the goal of creating a general tool that can be applied to study a variety of degradation mechanisms in nuclear power plant components. Because of the central role of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a nuclear power plant, particular emphasis is being placed on developing capabilities to model fracture in embrittled RPVs to aid in the process surrounding decision making relating to life extension of existing plants. A typical RPV contains a large population of pre-existing flaws introduced during the manufacturing process. The use of probabilistic techniques is necessary to assess the likelihood of crack initiation at one or more of these flaws during a transient event. This report documents development and initial testing of a capability to perform probabilistic fracture mechanics of large populations of flaws in RPVs using reduced order models to compute fracture parameters. The work documented here builds on prior efforts to perform probabilistic analyses of a single flaw with uncertain parameters, as well as earlier work to develop deterministic capabilities to model the thermo-mechanical response of the RPV under transient events, and compute fracture mechanics parameters at locations of pre-defined flaws. The capabilities developed as part of this work provide a foundation for future work, which will develop a platform that provides the flexibility needed to consider scenarios that cannot be addressed with the tools used in current practice.

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2014-09-01

Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

Application of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mata, Jonatas F.C. da; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Mesquita, Amir Z.

2015-01-01

The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi, occurred in Japan in 2011, brought reflections, worldwide, on the management of nuclear and environmental licensing processes of existing nuclear reactors. One of the key lessons learned in this matter, is that the studies of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Severe Accidents are becoming essential, even in the early stage of a nuclear development project. In Brazil, Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, CNEN, conducts the nuclear licensing. The organism responsible for the environmental licensing is Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA. In the scope of the licensing processes of these two institutions, the safety analysis is essentially deterministic, complemented by probabilistic studies. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the study performed to evaluate the behavior of the nuclear reactor in a sequence of events that may lead to the melting of its core. It includes both probability and consequence estimation of these events, which are called Severe Accidents, allowing to obtain the risk assessment of the plant. Thus, the possible shortcomings in the design of systems are identified, providing basis for safety assessment and improving safety. During the environmental licensing, a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), including probabilistic evaluations, is required in order to support the development of the Risk Analysis Study, the Risk Management Program and the Emergency Plan. This article aims to provide an overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and their applications in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil. (author)

Application of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mata, Jonatas F.C. da; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Mesquita, Amir Z., E-mail: jonatasfmata@yahoo.com.br, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

2015-07-01

The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi, occurred in Japan in 2011, brought reflections, worldwide, on the management of nuclear and environmental licensing processes of existing nuclear reactors. One of the key lessons learned in this matter, is that the studies of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Severe Accidents are becoming essential, even in the early stage of a nuclear development project. In Brazil, Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission, CNEN, conducts the nuclear licensing. The organism responsible for the environmental licensing is Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, IBAMA. In the scope of the licensing processes of these two institutions, the safety analysis is essentially deterministic, complemented by probabilistic studies. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the study performed to evaluate the behavior of the nuclear reactor in a sequence of events that may lead to the melting of its core. It includes both probability and consequence estimation of these events, which are called Severe Accidents, allowing to obtain the risk assessment of the plant. Thus, the possible shortcomings in the design of systems are identified, providing basis for safety assessment and improving safety. During the environmental licensing, a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), including probabilistic evaluations, is required in order to support the development of the Risk Analysis Study, the Risk Management Program and the Emergency Plan. This article aims to provide an overview of probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and their applications in nuclear and environmental licensing processes of nuclear reactors in Brazil. (author)

MODELING PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. B. Desyatov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Recently for the study of conflict increasingly used method of mathematical optical modeling. Its importance stems from the fact that experimental research such conflicts rather time-consuming and complex. However, existing approaches to the study of conflict do not take into account the stochastic nature of the systems, suffers from conceptual incompleteness. There is a need to develop models, algorithms and principles, in order to assess the conflict, to choose conflict resolution to ensure that not the worst of conditions. For stochastic technological systems as a utility function, we consider the probability of achieving a given objective. We assume that some system S1 is in conflict with the system S2, (SR2R К SR1R, if q(SR1R,SR2Revents, achieving some target States. Then-when, if and joint dependent random events, then the probability the conflict between events (And In can be defined in two ways: Definition 1. Between A and b is observed probabilistic conflict of the first kind (А К1 B, if P(A/Bprobabilistic conflict of the second kind (А К2 B, if P(A/B

Disjunctive Probabilistic Modal Logic is Enough for Bisimilarity on Reactive Probabilistic Systems

OpenAIRE

Bernardo, Marco; Miculan, Marino

2016-01-01

Larsen and Skou characterized probabilistic bisimilarity over reactive probabilistic systems with a logic including true, negation, conjunction, and a diamond modality decorated with a probabilistic lower bound. Later on, Desharnais, Edalat, and Panangaden showed that negation is not necessary to characterize the same equivalence. In this paper, we prove that the logical characterization holds also when conjunction is replaced by disjunction, with negation still being not necessary. To this e...

Quantitative analysis of probabilistic BPMN workflows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

2012-01-01

We present a framework for modelling and analysis of realworld business workflows. We present a formalised core subset of the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) and then proceed to extend this language with probabilistic nondeterministic branching and general-purpose reward annotations...... of events, reward-based properties and best- and worst- case scenarios. We develop a simple example of medical workflow and demonstrate the utility of this analysis in accurate provisioning of drug stocks. Finally, we suggest a path to building upon these techniques to cover the entire BPMN language, allow...

Contribution of operating feedback to probabilistic safety studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guio, J.M. de; Lannoy, A.

1992-03-01

This paper presents the method used for PWR unit operation feedback analysis and its contribution to probabilistic safety studies. The targets were as follows: - use of failure data banks to assess reliability parameters, - use of event data banks to identify and quantify main system initiating events, - determination of a standard operating profile. These studies, performed in the context of nuclear power plant safety programs, prove useful not only to safety engineers but also to equipment experts, designers, operators and maintenance specialists. They constitute basic data for studies in all these areas or the departure point for new investigations. (authors). 3 figs., 3 tabs., 3 refs

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Perceptual learning as improved probabilistic inference in early sensory areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Bejjanki, Vikranth R; Beck, Jeffrey M; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Pouget, Alexandre

2011-05-01

Extensive training on simple tasks such as fine orientation discrimination results in large improvements in performance, a form of learning known as perceptual learning. Previous models have argued that perceptual learning is due to either sharpening and amplification of tuning curves in early visual areas or to improved probabilistic inference in later visual areas (at the decision stage). However, early theories are inconsistent with the conclusions of psychophysical experiments manipulating external noise, whereas late theories cannot explain the changes in neural responses that have been reported in cortical areas V1 and V4. Here we show that we can capture both the neurophysiological and behavioral aspects of perceptual learning by altering only the feedforward connectivity in a recurrent network of spiking neurons so as to improve probabilistic inference in early visual areas. The resulting network shows modest changes in tuning curves, in line with neurophysiological reports, along with a marked reduction in the amplitude of pairwise noise correlations.

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F. [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P. [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two types of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.

A Probabilistic Safety Assessment of a Pyro-processed Waste Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Youn Myoung; Jeong, Jong Tae

2012-01-01

A GoldSim template program for a safety assessment of a hybrid-typed repository system, called A-KRS, in which two kinds of pyro-processed radioactive wastes, low-level metal wastes and ceramic high-level wastes that arise from the pyro-processing of PWR nuclear spent fuels are disposed of, has been developed. This program is ready both for a deterministic and probabilistic total system performance assessment which is able to evaluate nuclide release from the repository and farther transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various normal, disruptive natural and manmade events, and scenarios. The A-KRS has been probabilistically assessed with 9 selected input parameters, each of which has its own statistical distribution for a normal release and transport scenario associated with nuclide release and transport in and around the repository. Probabilistic dose exposure rates to the farming exposure group have been evaluated. A sensitivity of 9 selected parameters to the result has also been investigated to see which parameter is more sensitive and important to the exposure rates.

ASAMPSA-E guidance for level 2 PSA Volume 2. Implementing external Events modelling in Level 2 PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cazzoli, E.; Vitazkova, J.; Loeffler, H.; Burgazzi, L.

2016-01-01

The objective of the present document is to provide guidance on the implementation of external events into an 'extended' L2 PSA. It has to be noted that L2 PSA addresses issues beginning with fuel degradation and ending with the release of radionuclides into the environment. Therefore, the present document may touch upon, but does not evaluate explicitly issues that involve events or phenomena which occur before the fuel begins to degrade. Following the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi, the nuclear safety community has realized that much attention should be given to the areas of operator interventions and accidents that may develop at the same time in more than one unit if they are initiated by one or more common external events. For this reason and to fulfill the PSA end-users' wish list (as reflected by an ASAMPSA-E survey), the attention is mostly focused on interface between L1 and L2 PSA, fragility analysis, human response analysis and some consideration is given to L2 PSA modeling of severe accidents for multiple unit sites, even though it is premature to provide extensive guidance in this area. The following recommendations, mentioned in various sections within this document, are summarized here: 1. Vulnerability/fragility analyses should be performed with respect to all external hazards and all structures, systems and components potentially affected that could be relevant to L2 PSA, 2. Importance should be given to the assessment of human performance following extreme external events; for extreme circumstances with high stress level, low confidence is justified for SAM human interventions and for such conditions, human interventions could be analyzed as sensitivity cases only in L2 PSA, 3. Results presentation should include assessment of total risk measures compared with risk targets able to assess all contributions to the risk and to judge properly the safety, 4. Total risk measures shall be associated to appropriate information on all

Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Panse, Fabian; van Keulen, Maurice; de Keijzer, Ander; Ritter, Norbert

2009-01-01

Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused

Event-by-event particle multiplicity fluctuations in Pb-Pb collisions with ALICE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arslandok, Mesut [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt (Germany); Collaboration: ALICE-Collaboration

2014-07-01

The study of event-by-event fluctuations of identified hadrons may reveal the degrees of freedom of the strongly interacting mater created in heavy-ion collisions. Particle identification that is based on the measurement of the specific ionization energy loss dE/dx works well on a statistical basis, however, suffers from ambiguities when applied on the event-by-event level. A novel experimental technique called the ''Identity Method'' was recently proposed to overcome such limitations. The method follows a probabilistic approach using the inclusive dE/dx distributions measured in the ALICE TPC, and determines the moments of the multiplicity distributions by an unfolding procedure. In this contribution, the status of an event-by-event fluctuation analysis that applies the Identity Method to Pb-Pb data from ALICE is presented.

An evaluation of the reliability and usefulness of external-initiator PRA (probabilistic risk analysis) methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E. (Future Resources Associates, Inc., Berkeley, CA (USA))

1990-01-01

The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

An evaluation of the reliability and usefulness of external-initiator PRA [probabilistic risk analysis] methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.

1990-01-01

The discipline of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has become so mature in recent years that it is now being used routinely to assist decision-making throughout the nuclear industry. This includes decision-making that affects design, construction, operation, maintenance, and regulation. Unfortunately, not all sub-areas within the larger discipline of PRA are equally ''mature,'' and therefore the many different types of engineering insights from PRA are not all equally reliable. 93 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Consideration of external events in the design of nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants, with emphasis on earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-03-01

The design of nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants in relation to external events is not a well harmonized practice around the world. Traditionally, the design of these facilities has either been left to the provisions collected in national building codes and other industrial codes not specifically intended for nuclear facilities, or it has been the subject of complex analyses of the type usually performed for nuclear power plants. The IAEA has recently started a programme of development of safety standards for such facilities. The need to define the appropriate safety requirements for nuclear installations prompted a generic review of siting and design approaches for these facilities in relation to external events. Therefore the assessment methods for siting and design were reviewed by the engineering community to provide the overall design of such facilities with the necessary reliability level. This report aims to provide guidelines for the assessment of the safety of nuclear facilities other than nuclear power plants in relation to external events through the application of simplified methods and procedures for their siting and design. The approach adopted is both simplified and conservative compared with that used for power reactors. It seeks to provide a rational balance for a suitable combination of sustainable effort in site investigations and refinement in design procedures, compatible with the assigned safety objectives. This publication is related to IAEA-TECDOC-348 'Earthquake Resistant Design of Nuclear Facilities with Limited Radioactive Inventory' (1985) which focused on the seismic design of nuclear facilities with limited radioactive inventory. After some 17 years, parts of IAEA-TECDOC-348 needed modification, as new operational data have become available from many facilities. In addition, sophisticated design methodologies are now more easily obtainable, and experts felt that the trade-off between sustainable investment in the

Probabilistic risk assessment from potential exposures to the public applied for innovative nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dvorzhak, Alla; Mora, Juan C.; Robles, Beatriz

2016-01-01

Potential exposures are those that may occur as a result of unanticipated operational performance or accidents. Potential exposure situations are probabilistic in nature because they depend on uncertain events such as equipment failure, operator errors or external initiators beyond the control of the operator. Consequently, there may exist a range of possible radiological impacts that need to be considered. In this paper a Level 3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for a hypothetical scenario relevant to Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems (INS) was conducted using computer code MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code Systems). The acceptability of an INS was analyzed taking into account the general requirement that relocation or evacuation measures must not be necessary beyond the site boundary. In addition, deterministic modeling of the accident consequences for the critical meteorological conditions was carried out using the JRODOS decision support system (Real-time On-line Decision Support system for off-site emergency management in Europe). The approach used for dose and risk assessment from potential exposure of accidental releases and their comparison with acceptance criteria are presented. The methodology described can be used as input to the licensing procedure and engineering design considerations to help satisfy relevant health and environmental impact criteria for fission or fusion nuclear installations. - Highlights: • PSA Level-3 based on WinMACCS code is carried out for accidental release. • Family curves of percentiles for radiation exposure doses are constructed. • Risk indicators for potential exposure are defined. • Using of risk acceptance curve criteria is proposed for decision making process.

Confluence reduction for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette

In this presentation we introduce a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We proved that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To

Probabilistic systems coalgebraically: A survey

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolova, Ana

2011-01-01

We survey the work on both discrete and continuous-space probabilistic systems as coalgebras, starting with how probabilistic systems are modeled as coalgebras and followed by a discussion of their bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence, mentioning results that follow from the coalgebraic treatment of probabilistic systems. It is interesting to note that, for different reasons, for both discrete and continuous probabilistic systems it may be more convenient to work with behavioral equivalence than with bisimilarity. PMID:21998490

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Global Infrasound Association Based on Probabilistic Clutter Categorization

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Nimar; Mialle, Pierrick

2016-04-01

The IDC advances its methods and continuously improves its automatic system for the infrasound technology. The IDC focuses on enhancing the automatic system for the identification of valid signals and the optimization of the network detection threshold by identifying ways to refine signal characterization methodology and association criteria. An objective of this study is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the reviewed event bulletins. Indeed, a considerable number of signal detections are due to local clutter sources such as microbaroms, waterfalls, dams, gas flares, surf (ocean breaking waves) etc. These sources are either too diffuse or too local to form events. Worse still, the repetitive nature of this clutter leads to a large number of false event hypotheses due to the random matching of clutter at multiple stations. Previous studies, for example [1], have worked on categorization of clutter using long term trends on detection azimuth, frequency, and amplitude at each station. In this work we continue the same line of reasoning to build a probabilistic model of clutter that is used as part of NETVISA [2], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The resulting model is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] Infrasound categorization Towards a statistics based approach. J. Vergoz, P. Gaillard, A. Le Pichon, N. Brachet, and L. Ceranna. ITW 2011 [2] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

Characterizing the topology of probabilistic biological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2013-01-01

Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. This uncertainty leads to a massive number of alternative interaction topologies for each such network. The existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. In this paper, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. Using our mathematical representation, we develop a method that can accurately describe the degree distribution of such networks. We also take one more step and extend our method to accurately compute the joint-degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. Our method works quickly even for entire protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using MLE. We perform a comparative study of node-degree and joint-degree distributions in two types of biological networks: the classical deterministic networks and the more flexible probabilistic networks. Our results confirm that power-law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for both probabilistic and deterministic networks. Moreover, the inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected. We also show that probabilistic networks are more robust for node-degree distribution computation than the deterministic ones. all the data sets used, the software

Probabilistic distributions of pin gaps within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to pin gap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, K.; Hishida, H.

1978-01-01

Probabilistic fuel pin gap distributions within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to fuel pin gaps are discussed. The analyses consist mainly of expressing a local fuel pin gap in terms of sensitivity functions of the related uncertainties and calculating the corresponding probabilistic distribution through taking all the possible combinations of the distribution of uncertainties. The results of illustrative calculations show that with the reliability level of 0.9987, the maximum deviation of the pin gap at the cladding hot spot of a center fuel subassembly is 8.05% from its nominal value and the corresponding probabilistic pin gap distribution is shifted to the narrower side due to the external confinement of a pin bundle with a wrapper tube. (Auth.)

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

2004-12-01

A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr

Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

Science.gov (United States)

Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

1992-01-01

The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

Problems of probabilistic safety assessment after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, Naoki

2011-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology to assure nuclear safety is had great expectations of lessons learned from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident and on the other hand this accident made actualized technical problems of PSA. Effectiveness of current PSA methodology for risk assessment was confirmed by comparing the accident development with accident scenario of PSA and equipment failure rate. From a viewpoint of nuclear safety objective and defense in depth approach of IAEA, technical problems of PSA were (1) extension of PSA for spent fuel pool and waste disposal system as well as level 3PSA for broader environmental contamination and (2) overlapping of accident scenario of plural unit site, balance of high quality plant management and preceding negation, treatment of uncertainty of external events, severe accident measure and human reliability analysis and reflection of disaster prevention capability to level 3PSA. In order to upgrade PSA technology, six proposals were described for nuclear safety and defense in depth, comprehensive evaluation scope and catch-up of latest technology, necessity of strategic preparation of PSA standard, human resources fostering and risk communication. (T. Tanaka)

Probabilistic approach in treatment of deterministic analyses results of severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krajnc, B.; Mavko, B.

1996-01-01

Severe accidents sequences resulting in loss of the core geometric integrity have been found to have small probability of the occurrence. Because of their potential consequences to public health and safety, an evaluation of the core degradation progression and the resulting effects on the containment is necessary to determine the probability of a significant release of radioactive materials. This requires assessment of many interrelated phenomena including: steel and zircaloy oxidation, steam spikes, in-vessel debris cooling, potential vessel failure mechanisms, release of core material to the containment, containment pressurization from steam generation, or generation of non-condensable gases or hydrogen burn, and ultimately coolability of degraded core material. To asses the answer from the containment event trees in the sense of weather certain phenomenological event would happen or not the plant specific deterministic analyses should be performed. Due to the fact that there is a large uncertainty in the prediction of severe accidents phenomena in Level 2 analyses (containment event trees) the combination of probabilistic and deterministic approach should be used. In fact the result of the deterministic analyses of severe accidents are treated in probabilistic manner due to large uncertainty of results as a consequence of a lack of detailed knowledge. This paper discusses approach used in many IPEs, and which assures that the assigned probability for certain question in the event tree represent the probability that the event will or will not happen and that this probability also includes its uncertainty, which is mainly result of lack of knowledge. (author)

Attributing Asymmetric Productivity Responses to Internal Ecosystem Dynamics and External Drivers Using Probabilistic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Parolari, A.; Goulden, M.

2017-12-01

A major challenge to interpreting asymmetric changes in ecosystem productivity is the attribution of these changes to external climate forcing or to internal ecophysiological processes that respond to these drivers (e.g., photosynthesis response to drying soil). For example, positive asymmetry in productivity can result from either positive skewness in the distribution of annual rainfall amount or from negative curvature in the productivity response to annual rainfall. To analyze the relative influences of climate and ecosystem dynamics on both positive and negative asymmetry in multi-year ANPP experiments, we use a multi-scale coupled ecosystem water-carbon model to interpret field experimental results that span gradients of rainfall skewness and ANPP response curvature. The model integrates rainfall variability, soil moisture dynamics, and net carbon assimilation from the daily to inter-annual scales. From the underlying physical basis of the model, we compute the joint probability distribution of the minimum and maximum ANPP for an annual ANPP experiment of N years. The distribution is used to estimate the likelihood that either positive or negative asymmetry will be observed in an experiment, given the annual rainfall distribution and the ANPP response curve. We estimate the total asymmetry as the mode of this joint distribution and the relative contribution attributable to rainfall skewness as the mode for a linear ANPP response curve. Applied to data from several long-term ANPP experiments, we find that there is a wide range of observed ANPP asymmetry (positive and negative) and a spectrum of contributions from internal and external factors. We identify the soil water holding capacity relative to the mean rain event depth as a critical ecosystem characteristic that controls the non-linearity of the ANPP response and positive curvature at high rainfall. Further, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is shown to control the presence or absence of negative

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

2003-01-01

Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

OpenAIRE

Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

2003-01-01

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving

Science.gov (United States)

Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.

2018-03-01

There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.

Multi-Unit Initiating Event Analysis for a Single-Unit Internal Events Level 1 PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong San; Park, Jin Hee; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 highlighted the importance of considering the risks from multi-unit accidents at a site. The ASME/ANS probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) standard also includes some requirements related to multi-unit aspects, one of which (IE-B5) is as follows: 'For multi-unit sites with shared systems, DO NOT SUBSUME multi-unit initiating events if they impact mitigation capability [1].' However, the existing single-unit PSA models do not explicitly consider multi-unit initiating events and hence systems shared by multiple units (e.g., alternate AC diesel generator) are fully credited for the single unit and ignores the need for the shared systems by other units at the same site [2]. This paper describes the results of the multi-unit initiating event (IE) analysis performed as a part of the at-power internal events Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for an OPR1000 single unit ('reference unit'). In this study, a multi-unit initiating event analysis for a single-unit PSA was performed, and using the results, dual-unit LOOP initiating event was added to the existing PSA model for the reference unit (OPR1000 type). Event trees were developed for dual-unit LOOP and dual-unit SBO which can be transferred from dual- unit LOOP. Moreover, CCF basic events for 5 diesel generators were modelled. In case of simultaneous SBO occurrences in both units, this study compared two different assumptions on the availability of the AAC D/G. As a result, when dual-unit LOOP initiating event was added to the existing single-unit PSA model, the total CDF increased by 1∼ 2% depending on the probability that the AAC D/G is available to a specific unit in case of simultaneous SBO in both units.

A General Framework for Probabilistic Characterizing Formulae

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sack, Joshua; Zhang, Lijun

2012-01-01

Recently, a general framework on characteristic formulae was proposed by Aceto et al. It offers a simple theory that allows one to easily obtain characteristic formulae of many non-probabilistic behavioral relations. Our paper studies their techniques in a probabilistic setting. We provide...... a general method for determining characteristic formulae of behavioral relations for probabilistic automata using fixed-point probability logics. We consider such behavioral relations as simulations and bisimulations, probabilistic bisimulations, probabilistic weak simulations, and probabilistic forward...

Probabilistic Modelling of Robustness and Resilience of Power Grid Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Jianjun; Sansavini, Giovanni; Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

2017-01-01

The present paper proposes a framework for the modeling and analysis of resilience of networked power grid systems. A probabilistic systems model is proposed based on the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code (JCSS, 2001) and deterministic engineering systems modeling techniques such as the DC flow model...... cascading failure event scenarios (Nan and Sansavini, 2017). The concept of direct and indirect consequences proposed by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS, 2008) is utilized to model the associated consequences. To facilitate a holistic modeling of robustness and resilience, and to identify how...... these characteristics may be optimized these characteristics, the power grid system is finally interlinked with its fundamental interdependent systems, i.e. a societal model, a regulatory system and control feedback loops. The proposed framework is exemplified with reference to optimal decision support for resilience...

Application of probabilistic risk based optimization approaches in environmental restoration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldammer, W.

1995-01-01

The paper presents a general approach to site-specific risk assessments and optimization procedures. In order to account for uncertainties in the assessment of the current situation and future developments, optimization parameters are treated as probabilistic distributions. The assessments are performed within the framework of a cost-benefit analysis. Radiation hazards and conventional risks are treated within an integrated approach. Special consideration is given to consequences of low probability events such as, earthquakes or major floods. Risks and financial costs are combined to an overall figure of detriment allowing one to distinguish between benefits of available reclamation options. The probabilistic analysis uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The paper demonstrates the applicability of this approach in aiding the reclamation planning using an example from the German reclamation program for uranium mining and milling sites

Characterizing Topology of Probabilistic Biological Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2013-09-06

Biological interactions are often uncertain events, that may or may not take place with some probability. Existing studies analyze the degree distribution of biological networks by assuming that all the given interactions take place under all circumstances. This strong and often incorrect assumption can lead to misleading results. Here, we address this problem and develop a sound mathematical basis to characterize networks in the presence of uncertain interactions. We develop a method that accurately describes the degree distribution of such networks. We also extend our method to accurately compute the joint degree distributions of node pairs connected by edges. The number of possible network topologies grows exponentially with the number of uncertain interactions. However, the mathematical model we develop allows us to compute these degree distributions in polynomial time in the number of interactions. It also helps us find an adequate mathematical model using maximum likelihood estimation. Our results demonstrate that power law and log-normal models best describe degree distributions for probabilistic networks. The inverse correlation of degrees of neighboring nodes shows that, in probabilistic networks, nodes with large number of interactions prefer to interact with those with small number of interactions more frequently than expected.

A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.

1987-01-01

A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.

Probabilistic safety assessment framework of pebble-bed modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Tao; Tong Jiejuan; Zhao Jun; Cao Jianzhu; Zhang Liguo

2009-01-01

After an investigation of similar reactor type probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) framework, Pebble-bed Modular High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTR-PM) PSA framework was presented in correlate with its own design characteristics. That is an integral framework which spreads through event sequence structure with initiating events at the beginning and source term categories in the end. The analysis shows that it is HTR-PM design feature that determines its PSA framework. (authors)

Memristive Probabilistic Computing

KAUST Repository

Alahmadi, Hamzah

2017-10-01

In the era of Internet of Things and Big Data, unconventional techniques are rising to accommodate the large size of data and the resource constraints. New computing structures are advancing based on non-volatile memory technologies and different processing paradigms. Additionally, the intrinsic resiliency of current applications leads to the development of creative techniques in computations. In those applications, approximate computing provides a perfect fit to optimize the energy efficiency while compromising on the accuracy. In this work, we build probabilistic adders based on stochastic memristor. Probabilistic adders are analyzed with respect of the stochastic behavior of the underlying memristors. Multiple adder implementations are investigated and compared. The memristive probabilistic adder provides a different approach from the typical approximate CMOS adders. Furthermore, it allows for a high area saving and design exibility between the performance and power saving. To reach a similar performance level as approximate CMOS adders, the memristive adder achieves 60% of power saving. An image-compression application is investigated using the memristive probabilistic adders with the performance and the energy trade-off.

Initiating events frequency determination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

2004-01-01

The paper describes work performed for the Nuclear Power Station (NPS). Work is related to the periodic initiating events frequency update for the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). Data for all relevant NPS initiating events (IE) were reviewed. The main focus was on events occurring during most recent operating history (i.e., last four years). The final IE frequencies were estimated by incorporating both NPS experience and nuclear industry experience. Each event was categorized according to NPS individual plant examination (IPE) initiating events grouping approach. For the majority of the IE groups, few, or no events have occurred at the NPS. For those IE groups with few or no NPS events, the final estimate was made by means of a Bayesian update with general nuclear industry values. Exceptions are rare loss-of-coolant-accidents (LOCA) events, where evaluation of engineering aspects is used in order to determine frequency.(author)

Initial Probabilistic Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture with Grizzly and Raven

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spencer, Benjamin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hoffman, William [Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID (United States); Sen, Sonat [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Dickson, Terry [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bass, Richard [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2015-10-01

The Grizzly code is being developed with the goal of creating a general tool that can be applied to study a variety of degradation mechanisms in nuclear power plant components. The first application of Grizzly has been to study fracture in embrittled reactor pressure vessels (RPVs). Grizzly can be used to model the thermal/mechanical response of an RPV under transient conditions that would be observed in a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) scenario. The global response of the vessel provides boundary conditions for local models of the material in the vicinity of a flaw. Fracture domain integrals are computed to obtain stress intensity factors, which can in turn be used to assess whether a fracture would initiate at a pre-existing flaw. These capabilities have been demonstrated previously. A typical RPV is likely to contain a large population of pre-existing flaws introduced during the manufacturing process. This flaw population is characterized stastistically through probability density functions of the flaw distributions. The use of probabilistic techniques is necessary to assess the likelihood of crack initiation during a transient event. This report documents initial work to perform probabilistic analysis of RPV fracture during a PTS event using a combination of the RAVEN risk analysis code and Grizzly. This work is limited in scope, considering only a single flaw with deterministic geometry, but with uncertainty introduced in the parameters that influence fracture toughness. These results are benchmarked against equivalent models run in the FAVOR code. When fully developed, the RAVEN/Grizzly methodology for modeling probabilistic fracture in RPVs will provide a general capability that can be used to consider a wider variety of vessel and flaw conditions that are difficult to consider with current tools. In addition, this will provide access to advanced probabilistic techniques provided by RAVEN, including adaptive sampling and parallelism, which can dramatically

Modifications of Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany based upon new version of Emergency Operating Procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aldorf, R.

1997-01-01

In the frame of 'living Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany Project' being performed by Nuclear Research Institute Rez during 1997 is planned to reflect on Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 basis on impact of Emergency Response Guidelines (as one particular event from the list of other modifications) on Plant Safety. Following highlights help to orient the reader in main general aspects, findings and issues of the work that currently continues on. Older results of Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany have revealed that human behaviour during accident progression scenarios represent one of the most important aspects in plant safety. Current effort of Nuclear Power Plants Dukovany (Czech Republic) and Bohunice (Slovak Republic) is focussed on development of qualitatively new symptom-based Emergency Operating Procedures called Emergency Response Guidelines Supplier - Westinghouse Energy Systems Europe, Brussels works in cooperation with teams of specialist from both Nuclear Power Plants. In the frame of 'living Probabilistic Safety Assessment-1 Nuclear Power Plant Dukovany Project' being performed by Nuclear Research Institute Rez during 1997 is planned to prove on Probabilistic Safety Assessment -1 basis an expected - positive impact of Emergency Response Guidelines on Plant Safety, Since this contract is currently still in progress, it is possible to release only preliminary conclusions and observations. Emergency Response Guidelines compare to original Emergency Operating Procedures substantially reduce uncertainty of general human behaviour during plant response to an accident process. It is possible to conclude that from the current scope Probabilistic Safety Assessment Dukovany point of view (until core damage), Emergency Response Guidelines represent adequately wide basis for mitigating any initiating event

The European ASAMPSA_E project : towards guidance to model the impact of high amplitude natural hazards in the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Information on the project progress and needs from the geosciences.

Science.gov (United States)

Raimond, Emmanuel; Decker, Kurt; Guigueno, Yves; Klug, Joakim; Loeffler, Horst

2015-04-01

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan resulted from the combination of two correlated extreme external events (earthquake and tsunami). The consequences, in particular flooding, went beyond what was considered in the initial engineering design design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Such situations can in theory be identified using probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology. PSA results may then lead industry (system suppliers and utilities) or Safety Authorities to take appropriate decisions to reinforce the defence-in-depth of the NPP for low probability event but high amplitude consequences. In reality, the development of such PSA remains a challenging task. Definitions of the design basis of NPPs, for example, require data on events with occurrence probabilities not higher than 10-4 per year. Today, even lower probabilities, down to 10-8, are expected and typically used for probabilistic safety analyses (PSA) of NPPs and the examination of so-called design extension conditions. Modelling the combinations of natural or man-made hazards that can affect a NPP and affecting some meaningful probability of occurrence seems to be difficult. The European project ASAMPSAE (www.asampsa.eu) gathers more than 30 organizations (industry, research, safety control) from Europe, US and Japan and aims at identifying some meaningful practices to extend the scope and the quality of the existing probabilistic safety analysis developed for nuclear power plants. It offers a framework to discuss, at a technical level, how "extended PSA" can be developed efficiently and be used to verify if the robustness of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in their environment is sufficient. The paper will present the objectives of this project, some first lessons and introduce which type of guidance is being developed. It will explain the need of expertise from geosciences to support the nuclear safety assessment in the different area (seismotectonic, hydrological, meteorological and biological

Safety evaluation for the LMFBR plant using probabilistic risk assessment techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kani, Y.; Aizawa, K.

1987-01-01

This paper presents an application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to a typical loop-type liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) plant in the detailed design stage. A comprehensive systems analysis has been performed to identify event sequences leading to core damage and provide insights into the importance of accident contributors. While traditional event tree/fault tree modeling was used for the analysis, this study involved a thorough investigation of initiating events and of support system faults. The qualification of accident sequences has been conducted by combining the fault trees based on the event trees and obtaining sequence cut sets with the use of the SETS code. This study also attempted to quantify the potential for operator recovery actions in the course of each accident sequence. (author)

Probabilistic fire risk assessment for Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grobbelaar, J.F.; Foster, N.A.S.; Luesse, L.J.

1995-01-01

A probabilistic fire risk assessment was done for Koeberg Nuclear Power Station Unit 1. Areas where fires are likely to start were identified. Equipment important to safety, as well as their power and/or control cable routes were identified in each fire confinement sector. Fire confinement sectors where internal initiating events could be caused by fire were identified. Detection failure and suppression failure fault trees and event trees were constructed. The core damage frequency associated with each fire confinement sector was calculated, and important fire confinement sectors were identified. (author)

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haenni, R.; Romeijn, J.-W.; Wheeler, G.; Williamson, J.

2009-01-01

While in principle probabilistic logics might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied at present. This is perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. However, we shall argue in this programmatic paper that several approaches

Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

2012-10-01

Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

Level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment for a PWR plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondo, Keisuke; Nishio, Masahide; Fujimoto, Haruo; Ichitsuka, Akihiro

2014-01-01

In Japan, revised Seismic Design Guidelines for the domestic light water reactors was published on September 19, 2006. These new guidelines have introduced the purpose to confirm that residual risk resulting from earthquake that exceeds the design limit seismic ground motion (Ss) is sufficiently small, based on the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) method, in addition to conventional deterministic design base methodology. In response to this situation, JNES had been working to improve seismic PRA (SPRA) models for individual domestic light water reactors. In case of PWR in Japan, total of 24 plants were grouped into 11 categories to develop individual SPRA model. The new regulatory rules against the Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plants' severe accidents occurred on March 11, 2011, are going to be enforced in July 2013 and utilities are necessary to implement additional safety measures to avoid and mitigate severe accident occurrence due to external events such as earthquake and tsunami, by referring to the results of severe accident study including SPRA. In this paper a SPRA model development for a domestic 3-loop PWR plant as part of the above-mentioned 11 categories is described. We paid special attention to how to categorize initiating events that are specific to seismic phenomena and how to confirm the effect of the simultaneous failure probability calculation model for the multiple components on the result of core damage frequency evaluation. Simultaneous failure probability for multiple components has been evaluated by power multiplier method. Then tentative level-1 seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been performed by the developed SPSA model with seismic hazard and fragility data. The base case was evaluated under the condition with calculated fragility data and conventional power multiplier. The difference in CDF between the case of conventional power multiplier and that of power multiplier=1 (complete dependence) was estimated to be

Methodology for Selecting Initiating Events and Hazards for Consideration in an Extended PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wielenberg, A.; Hage, M.; Loeffler, H.; Alzbutas, R.; Apostol, M.; Bareith, A.; Siklossy, T.; Brac, P.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Vitazkova, J.; Cizelj, L.; Prosek, A.; Volkanovski, A.; Hashimoto, K.; Godefroy, F.; Gonzalez, M.; Groudev, P.; Kolar, L.; Kumar, M.; Nitoi, M.; Raimond, E.

2016-01-01

An extended PSA applies to a site of one or several Nuclear Power Plant unit(s) and its environment. It intends to calculate the risk induced by the main sources of radioactivity (reactor core and spent fuel storages) on the site, taking into account all operating states for each main source and all possible relevant accident initiating events (both internal and external) affecting one unit or the whole site. The combination between hazards or initiating events and their impact on a unit or the whole site is a crucial issue for an extended PSA. The report tries to discuss relevant methodologies for this purpose. The report proposes a methodology to select initiating events and hazards for the development of an extended PSA. The proposed methodology for initiating events identification, screening and bounding analysis for an extended PSA consists of four major steps: 1. A comprehensive identification of events and hazards and their respective combinations applicable to the plant and site. Qualitative screening criteria will be applied, 2. The calculation of initial (possibly conservative) frequency claims for events and hazards and their respective combinations applicable to the plant and the site. Quantitative screening criteria will be applied, 3. An impact analysis and bounding assessment for all applicable events and scenarios. Events are either screened out from further more detailed analysis, or are assigned to a bounding event (group), or are retained for detailed analysis, 4. The probabilistic analysis of all retained (bounding) events at the appropriate level of detail. (authors)

Probabilistic clustering of rainfall condition for landslide triggering

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Mauro; Luciani, Silvia; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Valigi, Daniela; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslides are widespread natural and man made phenomena. They are triggered by earthquakes, rapid snow melting, human activities, but mostly by typhoons and intense or prolonged rainfall precipitations. In Italy mostly they are triggered by intense precipitation. The prediction of landslide triggered by rainfall precipitations over large areas is commonly based on the exploitation of empirical models. Empirical landslide rainfall thresholds are used to identify rainfall conditions for the possible landslide initiation. It's common practice to define rainfall thresholds by assuming a power law lower boundary in the rainfall intensity-duration or cumulative rainfall-duration space above which landslide can occur. The boundary is defined considering rainfall conditions associated to landslide phenomena using heuristic approaches, and doesn't consider rainfall events not causing landslides. Here we present a new fully automatic method to identify the probability of landslide occurrence associated to rainfall conditions characterized by measures of intensity or cumulative rainfall and rainfall duration. The method splits the rainfall events of the past in two groups: a group of events causing landslides and its complementary, then estimate their probabilistic distributions. Next, the probabilistic membership of the new event to one of the two clusters is estimated. The method doesn't assume a priori any threshold model, but simple exploits the real empirical distribution of rainfall events. The approach was applied in the Umbria region, Central Italy, where a catalogue of landslide timing, were obtained through the search of chronicles, blogs and other source of information in the period 2002-2012. The approach was tested using rain gauge measures and satellite rainfall estimates (NASA TRMM-v6), allowing in both cases the identification of the rainfall condition triggering landslides in the region. Compared to the other existing threshold definition methods, the prosed

Probabilistic programmable quantum processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buzek, V.; Ziman, M.; Hillery, M.

2004-01-01

We analyze how to improve performance of probabilistic programmable quantum processors. We show how the probability of success of the probabilistic processor can be enhanced by using the processor in loops. In addition, we show that an arbitrary SU(2) transformations of qubits can be encoded in program state of a universal programmable probabilistic quantum processor. The probability of success of this processor can be enhanced by a systematic correction of errors via conditional loops. Finally, we show that all our results can be generalized also for qudits. (Abstract Copyright [2004], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

French PWR nuclear power plants: Probabilistic studies of accident sequences and related findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villemeur, A.; Moroni, J.M.; Berger, J.P.; Meslin, T.

1987-01-01

This paper presents the major studies performed in France by EDF in the framework of probabilistic studies. It describes the part played by these studies especially as regards: the assessment of the allowed outage time in the event of a safety component unavailability, the risk assessment in the event of a total loss of system (heat sink, electric power supplies, etc.). The specific features of the French 'living' PSA, now still in progress, are also presented. (orig./HSCH)

Probabilistic safety analysis second level of WWER-TOI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chekin, A.A.; Bajkova, E.V.; Levin, V.N.; Shishina, E.S.

2015-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of Level-1 and Level-2 gives a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the safety of the project. The operation of the unit at rated power is considered. As sources of radioactivity in the development of the second-level PSA, nuclear fuel in the core of the reactor is considered. As initiating events, internal initiating events (including de-energizing) are considered, which may arise due to failures of NPP systems, equipment or components, or due to erroneous actions of personnel. In general, an assessment of the level of project safety shows that the WWER-TOI project complies with the requirements of the TOR, as well as all the requirements of modern Russian and foreign regulatory documents in the field of security [ru

Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Utilization of probabilistic methods for evaluating the safety of PWRs built in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Queniart, D.; Brisbois, J.; Lanore, J.M.

1985-01-01

Firstly, it is recalled that, in France, PWRs are designed on a deterministic basis by studying the consequences of a limited number of conventional incidents whose estimated frequency is specified in order-of-magnitude terms and for which it is shown that the consequences, for each category of frequency, predominate over those of the other situations in the same category. These situations are called dimensioning situations. The paper then describes the use made of probabilistic methods. External attacks and loss of redundant systems are examined in particular. A probabilistic approach is in fact well suited to the evaluation of risks due, among other things, to aircraft crashes and the industrial environment. Analysis of the reliability of redundant systems has shown that, in the light of the overall risk assessment objective, their loss should be examined with a view to instituting counteraction to reduce the risks associated with such loss (particularly the introduction of special control procedures). Probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the counteraction proposed and such a study has been carried out for total loss of electric power supply. Finally, the probabilistic study of hazard initiated post factum by the French safety authorities for the standardized 900 MW(e) power units is described. The study, which is not yet complete, will serve as the basis for a permanent safety analysis tool taking into account control procedures and the total operating experience acquired using these power units. (author)

Treatment of the loss of ultimate heat sink initiating events in the IRSN level 1 PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupuy, Patricia; Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois

2014-01-01

The total loss of the ultimate heat sink is an initiating event which, even it is mainly of external origin, has been considered in the frame of internal events Level 1 PSA by IRSN. The on-going actions on the development of external hazards PSA and the recent incident of loss of the heat sink induced by the ingress of vegetable matter that occurred in France in 2009 have pointed out the need to improve the modeling of the loss of the heat sink initiating event and sequences to better take into account the fact that this loss may be induced by external hazards and thus affect all the site units. The paper presents the historical steps of the modeling of the total loss of the heat sink, the safety stakes of this modeling, the main assumptions used by IRSN in the associated PSA for the 900 MWe reactors and the results obtained. The total loss of the heat sink was not initially addressed in the safety demonstration of French NPPs. On the basis of the insights of the first probabilistic assessments performed in the 80's, the risks associated to this 'multiple failure situation' turned out to be very significant and design and organisational improvements were implemented on the plants. Reviews of the characterization of external hazards and of their consequences on the installations and French operating feedback have revealed that extreme hazards may induce a total loss of the heat sink. Moreover, the accident that occurred at Fukushima in 2011 has pointed out the risk of such a loss of long duration at all site units in case of extreme hazards. In this context, it seems relevant to further improve the modelling of the total loss of the heat sink by considering the external hazards that may cause this loss. In a first step, IRSN has improved the assumptions and data used in the loss of the heat sink PSA model, in particular by considering that such a loss may affect all the site units. The next challenge will be the deeper analysis of the impact of external hazards on

Insights from Guideline for Performance of Internal Flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IFPRA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joo Eon

2009-01-01

An internal flooding (IF) risk assessment refers to the quantitative probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) treatment of flooding as a result of pipe and tank breaks inside the plants, as well as from other recognized flood sources. The industry consensus standard for Internal Events Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ASME-RA-Sb-2005) includes high-level and supporting technical requirements for developing internal flooding probabilistic risk assessment (IFPRA). This industry standard is endorsed in Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 1 as an acceptable approach for addressing the risk contribution from IF events for risk informed applications that require U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) approval. In 2006, EPRI published a draft report for IFPRA that addresses the requirements of the ASME PRA consensus standard and have made efforts to refine and update the final EPRI IFPRA guideline. Westinghouse has performed an IFPRA analysis for several nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as Watts Bar and Fort Calhoun, using the draft EPRI guidelines for development of an IFPRA. Proprietary methodologies have been developed to apply the EPRI guidelines. The objectives of the draft report for IFPRA guideline are to: · Provide guidance for PSA practitioners in the performance of the elements of a PRA associated with internal flooding events consistent with the current state of the art for internal flooding PRA · Provide guidance regarding acceptable approaches that is sufficient to meeting the requirements of the ASME PRA Standard associated with internal flooding · Incorporate lessons learned in the performance of internal flooding PRAs including those identified as pilot applications of earlier drafts of this procedures guide The purpose of this paper is to present a vision for domestic nuclear power plants' IFPRA by comparing the method of the draft EPRI guidelines with the existing IFPRA method for domestic NPPs

Insights from Guideline for Performance of Internal Flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IFPRA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joo Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

An internal flooding (IF) risk assessment refers to the quantitative probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) treatment of flooding as a result of pipe and tank breaks inside the plants, as well as from other recognized flood sources. The industry consensus standard for Internal Events Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ASME-RA-Sb-2005) includes high-level and supporting technical requirements for developing internal flooding probabilistic risk assessment (IFPRA). This industry standard is endorsed in Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 1 as an acceptable approach for addressing the risk contribution from IF events for risk informed applications that require U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) approval. In 2006, EPRI published a draft report for IFPRA that addresses the requirements of the ASME PRA consensus standard and have made efforts to refine and update the final EPRI IFPRA guideline. Westinghouse has performed an IFPRA analysis for several nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as Watts Bar and Fort Calhoun, using the draft EPRI guidelines for development of an IFPRA. Proprietary methodologies have been developed to apply the EPRI guidelines. The objectives of the draft report for IFPRA guideline are to: {center_dot} Provide guidance for PSA practitioners in the performance of the elements of a PRA associated with internal flooding events consistent with the current state of the art for internal flooding PRA {center_dot} Provide guidance regarding acceptable approaches that is sufficient to meeting the requirements of the ASME PRA Standard associated with internal flooding {center_dot} Incorporate lessons learned in the performance of internal flooding PRAs including those identified as pilot applications of earlier drafts of this procedures guide The purpose of this paper is to present a vision for domestic nuclear power plants' IFPRA by comparing the method of the draft EPRI guidelines with the existing IFPRA method for domestic NPPs.

PROBABILISTIC RELATIONAL MODELS OF COMPLETE IL-SEMIRINGS

OpenAIRE

Tsumagari, Norihiro

2012-01-01

This paper studies basic properties of probabilistic multirelations which are generalized the semantic domain of probabilistic systems and then provides two probabilistic models of complete IL-semirings using probabilistic multirelations. Also it is shown that these models need not be models of complete idempotentsemirings.

Dependency models and probability of joint events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oerjasaeter, O.

1982-08-01

Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

First Volcanological-Probabilistic Pyroclastic Density Current and Fallout Hazard Map for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius Volcanoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.

2005-05-01

Integrated volcanological-probabilistic approaches has been used in order to simulate pyroclastic density currents and fallout and produce hazard maps for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius areas. On the basis of the analyses of all types of pyroclastic flows, surges, secondary pyroclastic density currents and fallout events occurred in the volcanological history of the two volcanic areas and the evaluation of probability for each type of events, matrixs of input parameters for a numerical simulation have been performed. The multi-dimensional input matrixs include the main controlling parameters of the pyroclasts transport and deposition dispersion, as well as the set of possible eruptive vents used in the simulation program. Probabilistic hazard maps provide of each points of campanian area, the yearly probability to be interested by a given event with a given intensity and resulting demage. Probability of a few events in one thousand years are typical of most areas around the volcanoes whitin a range of ca 10 km, including Neaples. Results provide constrains for the emergency plans in Neapolitan area.

Development of a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) for the nuclear safety

Science.gov (United States)

Ben Daoued, Amine; Guimier, Laurent; Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study is to lay the basis for a probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard (PFHA). Probabilistic assessment of external floods has become a current topic of interest to the nuclear scientific community. Probabilistic approaches complement deterministic approaches by exploring a set of scenarios and associating a probability to each of them. These approaches aim to identify all possible failure scenarios, combining their probability, in order to cover all possible sources of risk. They are based on the distributions of initiators and/or the variables caracterizing these initiators. The PFHA can characterize the water level for example at defined point of interest in the nuclear site. This probabilistic flood hazard characterization takes into account all the phenomena that can contribute to the flooding of the site. The main steps of the PFHA are: i) identification of flooding phenomena (rains, sea water level, etc.) and screening of relevant phenomena to the nuclear site, ii) identification and probabilization of parameters associated to selected flooding phenomena, iii) spreading of the probabilized parameters from the source to the point of interest in the site, v) obtaining hazard curves and aggregation of flooding phenomena contributions at the point of interest taking into account the uncertainties. Within this framework, the methodology of the PFHA has been developed for several flooding phenomena (rain and/or sea water level, etc.) and then implemented and tested with a simplified case study. In the same logic, our study is still in progress to take into account other flooding phenomena and to carry out more case studies.

A Probabilistic Model to Evaluate the Optimal Density of Stations Measuring Snowfall.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneebeli, Martin; Laternser, Martin

2004-05-01

Daily new snow measurements are very important for avalanche forecasting and tourism. A dense network of manual or automatic stations measuring snowfall is necessary to have spatially reliable data. Snow stations in Switzerland were built at partially subjective locations. A probabilistic model based on the frequency and spatial extent of areas covered by heavy snowfalls was developed to quantify the probability that snowfall events are measured by the stations. Area probability relations were calculated for different thresholds of daily accumulated snowfall. A probabilistic model, including autocorrelation, was used to calculate the optimal spacing of stations based on simulated triangular grids and to compare the capture probability of different networks and snowfall thresholds. The Swiss operational snow-stations network captured snowfall events with high probability, but the distribution of the stations could be optimized. The spatial variability increased with higher thresholds of daily accumulated snowfall, and the capture probability decreased with increasing thresholds. The method can be used for other areas where the area probability relation for threshold values of snow or rain can be calculated.

Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Characterization with Probabilistic Centroid Moment Tensor Inversion

Science.gov (United States)

Dettmer, J.; Benavente, R. F.; Cummins, P. R.

2017-12-01

This work considers probabilistic, non-linear centroid moment tensor inversion of data from earthquakes at teleseismic distances. The moment tensor is treated as deviatoric and centroid location is parametrized with fully unknown latitude, longitude, depth and time delay. The inverse problem is treated as fully non-linear in a Bayesian framework and the posterior density is estimated with interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which are implemented in parallel and allow for chain interaction. The source mechanism and location, including uncertainties, are fully described by the posterior probability density and complex trade-offs between various metrics are studied. These include the percent of double couple component as well as fault orientation and the probabilistic results are compared to results from earthquake catalogs. Additional focus is on the analysis of complex events which are commonly not well described by a single point source. These events are studied by jointly inverting for multiple centroid moment tensor solutions. The optimal number of sources is estimated by the Bayesian information criterion to ensure parsimonious solutions. [Supported by NSERC.

Light water reactor sequence timing: its significance to probabilistic safety assessment modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bley, D.C.; Buttemer, D.R.; Stetkar, J.W.

1988-01-01

This paper examines event sequence timing in light water reactor plants from the viewpoint of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The analytical basis for the ideas presented here come primarily from the authors' work in support of more than 20 PSA studies over the past several years. Timing effects are important for establishing success criteria for support and safety system response and for identifying the time available for operator recovery actions. The principal results of this paper are as follows: 1. Analysis of event sequence timing is necessary for meaningful probabilistic safety assessment - both the success criteria for systems performance and the probability of recovery are tightly linked to sequence timing. 2. Simple engineering analyses based on first principles are often sufficient to provide adequate resolution of the time available for recovery of PSA scenarios. Only those parameters that influence sequence timing and its variability and uncertainty need be examined. 3. Time available for recovery is the basic criterion for evaluation of human performance, whether time is an explicit parameter of the operator actions analysis or not. (author)

Probabilistic safety analysis vs probabilistic fracture mechanics -relation and necessary merging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Fred

1997-01-01

A comparison is made between some general features of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in its standard form. We conclude that: Result from PSA is a numerically expressed level of confidence in the system based on the state of current knowledge. It is thus not any objective measure of risk. It is important to carefully define the precise nature of the probabilistic statement and relate it to a well defined situation. Standardisation of PFM methods is necessary. PFM seems to be the only way to obtain estimates of the pipe break probability. Service statistics are of doubtful value because of scarcity of data and statistical inhomogeneity. Collection of service data should be directed towards the occurrence of growing cracks

A Level 1+ Probabilistic Safety Assessment of the High Flux Australian Reactor. Vol 3: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The third volume of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment contains supporting information for the PSA as follows: Appendix C (continued) with details of the system analysis and reports for the system/top event models; Appendix D with results of the specific engineering analyses of internal initiating events; Appendix E, containing supporting data for the human performance assessment,; Appendix F with details of the estimation of the frequency of leaks at HIFAR and Appendix G, containing event sequence model and quantification results

Probabilistic approach to requalification of existing NPPs under aircraft crash loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birbraer, A.N.; Roleder, A.J.; Shulman, G.S.

1993-01-01

A probabilistic approach to the analysis of NPP safety under aircraft impact is discussed. It may be used both for requalification of existing NPPs and in the process of NPP design. NPP is considered as a system of components: structures, pipes, different kinds of equipment, soil, foundation. The exceeding of the limit probability of the radioactive products release out of containment (i.e. of the NPP safety requirements non-fulfilment) is taken as a system failure criterion. An example of an event tree representing the consequence of events causing the failure is given. Described are the methods of estimate of elementary events probabilities through which a composite probability of the failure is evaluated. (author)

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

Probabilistic safety assessment of the nuclear facilities in Cuba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivero O, J.J.; Salomon L, J.

1991-01-01

During 1986-1990 basis were established for further developing probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of Juragua NPP. A team work was consolidated and carried out the preliminary studies of the small break LOCA initiating event. A significant achievement was the creation of the ANCON code, which allows the evaluation of complex fault trees in personal computers, and has been applied in PSA modelling, and specialist qualification. The paper describes the main results and future activities in this field. (author)

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development

Science.gov (United States)

Burnside, O. H.

1985-01-01

The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.

EREM: Parameter Estimation and Ancestral Reconstruction by Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for a Probabilistic Model of Genomic Binary Characters Evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmel, Liran; Wolf, Yuri I; Rogozin, Igor B; Koonin, Eugene V

2010-01-01

Evolutionary binary characters are features of species or genes, indicating the absence (value zero) or presence (value one) of some property. Examples include eukaryotic gene architecture (the presence or absence of an intron in a particular locus), gene content, and morphological characters. In many studies, the acquisition of such binary characters is assumed to represent a rare evolutionary event, and consequently, their evolution is analyzed using various flavors of parsimony. However, when gain and loss of the character are not rare enough, a probabilistic analysis becomes essential. Here, we present a comprehensive probabilistic model to describe the evolution of binary characters on a bifurcating phylogenetic tree. A fast software tool, EREM, is provided, using maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the model and to reconstruct ancestral states (presence and absence in internal nodes) and events (gain and loss events along branches).

Discrete event simulation model for external yard choice of import container terminal in a port buffer area

Science.gov (United States)

Rusgiyarto, Ferry; Sjafruddin, Ade; Frazila, Russ Bona; Suprayogi

2017-06-01

Increasing container traffic and land acquisition problem for terminal expansion leads to usage of external yard in a port buffer area. This condition influenced the terminal performance because a road which connects the terminal and the external yard was also used by non-container traffic. Location choice problem considered to solve this condition, but the previous research has not taken account a stochastic condition of container arrival rate and service time yet. Bi-level programming framework was used to find optimum location configuration. In the lower-level, there was a problem to construct the equation, which correlated the terminal operation and the road due to different time cycle equilibrium. Container moves from the quay to a terminal gate in a daily unit of time, meanwhile, it moves from the terminal gate to the external yard through the road in a minute unit of time. If the equation formulated in hourly unit equilibrium, it cannot catch up the container movement characteristics in the terminal. Meanwhile, if the equation formulated in daily unit equilibrium, it cannot catch up the road traffic movement characteristics in the road. This problem can be addressed using simulation model. Discrete Event Simulation Model was used to simulate import container flow processes in the container terminal and external yard. Optimum location configuration in the upper-level was the combinatorial problem, which was solved by Full Enumeration approach. The objective function of the external yard location model was to minimize user transport cost (or time) and to maximize operator benefit. Numerical experiment was run for the scenario assumption of two container handling ways, three external yards, and thirty-day simulation periods. Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) container characteristics data was referred for the simulation. Based on five runs which were 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 repetitions, operation one of three available external yards (external yard

14th International Probabilistic Workshop

CERN Document Server

Taerwe, Luc; Proske, Dirk

2017-01-01

This book presents the proceedings of the 14th International Probabilistic Workshop that was held in Ghent, Belgium in December 2016. Probabilistic methods are currently of crucial importance for research and developments in the field of engineering, which face challenges presented by new materials and technologies and rapidly changing societal needs and values. Contemporary needs related to, for example, performance-based design, service-life design, life-cycle analysis, product optimization, assessment of existing structures and structural robustness give rise to new developments as well as accurate and practically applicable probabilistic and statistical engineering methods to support these developments. These proceedings are a valuable resource for anyone interested in contemporary developments in the field of probabilistic engineering applications.

Overview of results and perspectives from the Shoreham major common-cause initiating events study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joksimovich, V.; Orvis, D.D.; Paccione, R.J.

1986-01-01

This study represents the continuation of a large effort by LILCO to fully understand the potential hazards posed by future operation of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Stations (SNPS). The Shoreham Probabilistic Risk Assessment, a level 3 PRA without external events, provided a characterization of the accident sequences that could leave the core in a condition in which it would be vulnerable to severe damage if further mitigating actions were not taken. It estimated the frequency and magnitude of the potential radioactivity releases associated with such sequences. The study was limited to accident sequences initiated by so called internal events to the plant including a loss of offsite power. It also characterized the public risk associated with those accident sequences. The ''Major Common-Cause Initiating Events Study'' (MCCI) for the Shoreham plant was performed to obtain insights into the plant's susceptibility to, and inherent defenses against, certain MCCIs. Major common-cause initiating events are occurrences which have the potential to initiate a plant transient or LOCA and, also, damage one or more plant systems needed to mitigate the effects of a transient or LOCA. The scope of the MCCI study included detailed analyses of seismic events and fires through the severe core damage and bounding analyses of aircraft crashes, windstorms, turbine missiles and release of hazardous materials near the plant

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, J.M.

1982-01-01

Some probabilistic aspects of fracture in structural and mechanical components are examined. The principles of fracture mechanics, material quality and inspection uncertainty are formulated into a conceptual and analytical framework for prediction of failure probability. The role of probabilistic fracture mechanics in a more global context of risk and optimization of decisions is illustrated. An example, where Monte Carlo simulation was used to implement a probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis, is discussed. (orig.)

Probabilistic assessment of Juragua Nuclear Power Plant response under station blackout conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valhuerdi, C.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Perdomo, M.; Torres, A.

1995-01-01

The preliminary results concerning the response of station blackout are shown in this paper. These results have been obtained in the framework of initiator lass of external electrical supply as a aport of the revision o of the current probabilistic safety analysis. The work is also based on the results reported in the thermohydraulic calculations of VVER 440 plants responses under these conditions and the experience of this type of notified incidents. Finally, a comparative analysis with the results obtained for other reactor technologies is presented

Event tree analysis of accidents during transport of radioactive materials in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watabe, N.; Shirai, K.; Noguchi, K.; Suzuki, H.; Kinehara, Y.

1993-01-01

The Event Tree Method is one of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment Method. It introduces the accident scenario and the results of countermeasures. Therefore, it is effective in determining latent accident scenarios in the transfer. In this report the Event Tree Method is used to study the tunnel fire and its effects are evaluated. And this is the first trail of our Probabilistic Safety Assessment. The Event Tree for determining the early conditions when a car engine catches fire in a tunnel is examined. There are fire extinguishers, tunnel equipments for fire-fighting, fire stations and the heat-resisting property of the container for protecting from the fire. The protection level against the over 800degC-30min. fire accident is 88.3 %. (J.P.N.)

Probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft impact on a spent nuclear fuel dry storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Almomani, Belal, E-mail: balmomani@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sanghoon, E-mail: shlee1222@kmu.ac.kr [Department of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Dalgubeol-daero 1095, Dalseo-gu, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Jang, Dongchan, E-mail: dongchan.jang@kaist.ac.kr [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook, E-mail: kangh6@rpi.edu [Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 (United States)

2017-01-15

Highlights: • A new risk assessment frame is proposed for aircraft impact into an interim dry storage. • It uses event tree analysis, response-structural analysis, consequence analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. • A case study of the proposed procedure is presented to illustrate the methodology’s application. - Abstract: This paper proposes a systematic risk evaluation framework for one of the most significant impact events on an interim dry storage facility, an aircraft crash, by using a probabilistic approach. A realistic case study that includes a specific cask model and selected impact conditions is performed to demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed framework. An event tree analysis of an occurred aircraft crash that defines a set of impact conditions and storage cask response is constructed. The Monte-Carlo simulation is employed for the probabilistic approach in consideration of sources of uncertainty associated with the impact loads onto the internal storage casks. The parameters for representing uncertainties that are managed probabilistically include the aircraft impact velocity, the compressive strength of the reinforced concrete wall, the missile shape factor, and the facility wall thickness. Failure probabilities of the impacted wall and a single storage cask under direct mechanical impact load caused by the aircraft crash are estimated. A finite element analysis is applied to simulate the postulated direct engine impact load onto the cask body, and a source term analysis for associated releases of radioactive materials as well as an off-site consequence analysis are performed. Finally, conditional risk contribution calculations are represented by an event tree model. Case study results indicate that no severe risk is presented, as the radiological consequences do not exceed regulatory exposure limits to the public. This risk model can be used with any other representative detailed parameters and reference design concepts for

Probabilistic safety assessment activities at Ignalina NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bagdonas, A.

1999-01-01

The Barselina Project was initiated in the summer 1991. The project was a multilateral co-operation between Lithuania, Russia and Sweden up until phase 3, and phase 4 has been performed as a bilateral between Lithuania and Sweden. The long-range objective is to establish common perspectives and unified bases for assessment of severe accident risks and needs for remedial measures for the RBMK reactors. During phase 3, from 1993 to 1994, a full scope Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) model of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant unit 2 was developed to identify possible safety improvement of risk importance. The probabilistic methodology was applied on a plant specific basis for a channel type reactor of RBMK design. During phase 4, from 1994 to 1996, the PSA was further developed, taking into account plant changes, improved modelling methods and extended plant information concerning dependencies (area events, dynamic effects, electrical and signal dependencies). The model reflected the plant status before the outage 1996. During phase 4+, 1998 to 1999 the PSA model was upgraded taking into account the newest plant modifications. The new PSA model of CPS/AZRT was developed. Modelling was based on the Single Failure Analysis

Optimal design of priors constrained by external predictors

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

2017-01-01

Roč. 84, č. 1 (2017), s. 150-158 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-09848S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Parameter prior * External predictive distribution * Bayesian transfer learning * Kullback–Leibler divergence Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory OBOR OECD: Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8) Impact factor: 2.845, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/AS/guy-0473911.pdf

Probabilistic approach to external cloud dose calculations using onsite meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strenge, D.L.; Watson, E.C.; Bander, T.J.; Kennedy, W.E.

1976-01-01

A method is described for calculation of external total body and skin doses from accidental atmospheric releases of radionuclides based on hourly onsite meteorological data. The method involves calculation of dose values from a finite size cloud for each hourly observation for a given radionuclide inventory. These values are then used to determine the probability of occurrence of dose levels for specified release times ranging from one hour to 30 days

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Method for Nonlinear Soil Sites based on the Hazard Spectrum of Bedrock Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, Dae Gi; Seo, Jeong Moon; Choi, In Kil

2011-01-01

For the probabilistic safety assessment of the nuclear power plants (NPP) under seismic events, the rational probabilistic seismic hazard estimation should be performed. Generally, the probabilistic seismic hazard of NPP site is represented by the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for the specific annual frequency. In most case, since that the attenuation equations were defined for the bedrock sites, the standard attenuation laws cannot be applied to the general soft soil sites. Hence, for the probabilistic estimation of the seismic hazard of soft soil sites, a methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) coupled with nonlinear dynamic analyses of the soil column are required. Two methods are commonly used for the site response analysis considering the nonlinearity of sites. The one is the deterministic method and another is the probabilistic method. In the analysis of site response, there exist many uncertainty factors such as the variation of the magnitude and frequency contents of input ground motion, and material properties of soil deposits. Hence, nowadays, it is recommended that the adoption of the probabilistic method for the PSHA of soft soil deposits considering such uncertainty factors. In this study, we estimated the amplification factor of the surface of the soft soil deposits with considering the uncertainties of the input ground motions and the soil material properties. Then, we proposed the probabilistic methodology to evaluate the UHS of the soft soil site by multiplying the amplification factor to that of the bedrock site. The proposed method was applied to four typical target sites of KNGR and APR1400 NPP site categories

Phenomenological analyses and their application to the Defense Waste Processing Facility probabilistic safety analysis accident progression event tree. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinich, D.A.; Thomas, J.K.; Gough, S.T.; Bailey, R.T.; Kearnaghan, D.P.

1995-01-01

In the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) Safety Analysis Reports (SARs) for the Savannah River Site (SRS), risk-based perspectives have been included per US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.23. The NUREG-1150 Level 2/3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology was selected as the basis for calculating facility risk. The backbone of this methodology is the generation of an Accident Progression Event Tree (APET), which is solved using the EVNTRE computer code. To support the development of the DWPF APET, deterministic modeling of accident phenomena was necessary. From these analyses, (1) accident progressions were identified for inclusion into the APET; (2) branch point probabilities and any attendant parameters were quantified; and (3) the radionuclide releases to the environment from accidents were determined. The phenomena of interest for accident progressions included explosions, fires, a molten glass spill, and the response of the facility confinement system during such challenges. A variety of methodologies, from hand calculations to large system-model codes, were used in the evaluation of these phenomena

Uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, S.; Metcalf, D.R.; Pegram, J.W.

1982-01-01

Three uncertainty propagation techniques, namely method of moments, discrete probability distribution (DPD), and Monte Carlo simulation, generally used in probabilistic risk assessment, are compared and conclusions drawn in terms of the accuracy of the results. For small uncertainty in the basic event unavailabilities, the three methods give similar results. For large uncertainty, the method of moments is in error, and the appropriate method is to propagate uncertainty in the discrete form either by DPD method without sampling or by Monte Carlo. (orig.)

Davidson's Externalism and Swampman's Troublesome Biography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Leclerc

2005-12-01

Full Text Available After the seminal works of Putnam (1975, Burge (1979, and Kripke (1982, the next important contribution to externalism is certainly Davidson’s (mainly 1987, 1988, 1989, 2001. By criticizing the posi-tions of these philosophers, Davidson elaborated his own brand of exter-nalism. We shall first present some features of Davidson’s externalism (the importance of historical-causal connections for the foundation of language and thought, for the explanation of how language can be learned, and how attitudes can be identified by the interpreter, and fi-nally how mental content is determined by appealing to the idea of trian-gulation, to prepare the discussion of a few problems. We then discuss two questions in Davidson’s externalism. First, how to reconcile the fact that external factors determine mental content, as Putnam, Burge and Davidson himself argued convincingly, with token-physicalism, the thesis that mental events are identical with physical events occurring “in the head” (or the thesis that mental events supervenes locally on brain ac-tivities? The second main problem is how to reconcile the first person authority with some prima facie consequences of externalism, mainly that we should know the relevant parts of our (natural and social envi-ronment in order to know the content of our own thoughts? We argue that Davidson’s answer to the first question is not successful, while his answer to the second was a breakthrough.

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Analysing supercritical water reactor's (SCWR's) special safety systems using probabilistic tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ituen, I.; Novog, D.R.

2011-01-01

The next generation of reactors, termed Generation IV, has very attractive features -- its superior safety characteristics, high thermal efficiency, and fuel cycle sustainability. A key element of the Generation IV designs is the improvement in safety, which in turn requires improvements in safety system performance and reliability, as well as a reduction in initiating event frequencies. This study compares the response of the systems important to safety in the CANDU-Supercritical Water Reactor to those of the generic CANDU under a main steamline break accident and loss of forced circulation events -- to quantify the improvements in safety for the pre-conceptual CANDU SCWR design. Probabilistic safety analysis is the tool used in this study to test the behavior of the pre- conceptual design during these events. (author)

Environmental conditions using thermal-hydraulics computer code GOTHIC for beyond design basis external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pleskunas, R.J.

2015-01-01

In response to the Fukushima Dai-ichi beyond design basis accident in March 2011, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued Order EA-12-049, 'Issuance of Order to Modify Licenses with Regard to Requirements for Mitigation Strategies Beyond-Design-Basis-External-Events'. To outline the process to be used by individual licensees to define and implement site-specific diverse and flexible mitigation strategies (FLEX) that reduce the risks associated with beyond design basis conditions, Nuclear Energy Institute document NEI 12-06, 'Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX) Implementation Guide', was issued. A beyond design basis external event (BDBEE) is postulated to cause an Extended Loss of AC Power (ELAP), which will result in a loss of ventilation which has the potential to impact room habitability and equipment operability. During the ELAP, portable FLEX equipment will be used to achieve and maintain safe shutdown, and only a minimal set of instruments and controls will be available. Given these circumstances, analysis is required to determine the environmental conditions in several vital areas of the Nuclear Power Plant. The BDBEE mitigating strategies require certain room environments to be maintained such that they can support the occupancy of personnel and the functionality of equipment located therein, which is required to support the strategies associated with compliance to NRC Order EA-12-049. Three thermal-hydraulic analyses of vital areas during an extended loss of AC power using the GOTHIC computer code will be presented: 1) Safety-related pump and instrument room transient analysis; 2) Control Room transient analysis; and 3) Auxiliary/Control Building transient analysis. GOTHIC (Generation of Thermal-Hydraulic Information for Containment) is a general purpose thermal-hydraulics software package for the analysis of nuclear power plant containments, confinement buildings, and system components. It is a volume/path/heat sink

EREM: Parameter Estimation and Ancestral Reconstruction by Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for a Probabilistic Model of Genomic Binary Characters Evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liran Carmel

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Evolutionary binary characters are features of species or genes, indicating the absence (value zero or presence (value one of some property. Examples include eukaryotic gene architecture (the presence or absence of an intron in a particular locus, gene content, and morphological characters. In many studies, the acquisition of such binary characters is assumed to represent a rare evolutionary event, and consequently, their evolution is analyzed using various flavors of parsimony. However, when gain and loss of the character are not rare enough, a probabilistic analysis becomes essential. Here, we present a comprehensive probabilistic model to describe the evolution of binary characters on a bifurcating phylogenetic tree. A fast software tool, EREM, is provided, using maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the model and to reconstruct ancestral states (presence and absence in internal nodes and events (gain and loss events along branches.

Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

2017-10-01

The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

Quantitative analysis of probabilistic BPMN workflows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

2012-01-01

We present a framework for modelling and analysis of realworld business workflows. We present a formalised core subset of the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) and then proceed to extend this language with probabilistic nondeterministic branching and general-purpose reward annotations...... of events, reward-based properties and best- and worst- case scenarios. We develop a simple example of medical workflow and demonstrate the utility of this analysis in accurate provisioning of drug stocks. Finally, we suggest a path to building upon these techniques to cover the entire BPMN language, allow...... for more complex annotations and ultimately to automatically synthesise workflows by composing predefined sub-processes, in order to achieve a configuration that is optimal for parameters of interest....

External hazards in reliability and risk assessment of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stevenson, J.D.

1977-01-01

It is current practice in the design of nuclear power generating stations to protect against the effects of significant natural and man-made external hazards which can occur at the plant site in excess of those hazards normally considered for conventional facilities. This paper is meant to identify those postulated external hazards typically considered in nuclear facility design. The paper also attempts to fulfill the following four objectives: (1) Define the current state of the art in applying reliability and risk analysis to determine external hazard design requirements. (2) Provide a ready source of literature references applicable to probabilistic design for extreme loads. (3) Provide some quantitative probability assessment estimates of external hazards. (4) Develop exclusion criteria by which postulated external hazards can be eliminated as a design basis. Rigorous evaluation of the design requirements for nuclear power plant facilities based on principles of probability and risk analysis is just beginning. It is hoped these techniques will be used more extensively in the future to provide a more rational basis for developing design requirements. (orig.) [de

Probabilistic fracture failure analysis of nuclear piping containing defects using R6 method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Y.C.; Xie, Y.J.; Wang, X.H.

2004-01-01

Failure analysis of in-service nuclear piping containing defects is an important subject in the nuclear power plants. Considering the uncertainties in various internal operating loadings and external forces, including earthquake and wind, flaw sizes, material fracture toughness and flow stress, this paper presents a probabilistic assessment methodology for in-service nuclear piping containing defects, which is especially designed for programming. A general sampling computation method of the stress intensity factor (SIF), in the form of the relationship between the SIF and the axial force, bending moment and torsion, is adopted in the probabilistic assessment methodology. This relationship has been successfully used in developing the software, Safety Assessment System of In-service Pressure Piping Containing Flaws (SAPP-2003), based on a well-known engineering safety assessment procedure R6. A numerical example is given to show the application of the SAPP-2003 software. The failure probabilities of each defect and the whole piping can be obtained by this software

A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Silvestro

2012-09-01

Full Text Available On the 4 November 2011 a flash flood event hit the area of Genoa with dramatic consequences. Such an event represents, from the meteorological and hydrological perspective, a paradigm of flash floods in the Mediterranean environment.

The hydro-meteorological probabilistic forecasting system for small and medium size catchments in use at the Civil Protection Centre of Liguria region exhibited excellent performances for the event, by predicting, 24–48 h in advance, the potential level of risk associated with the forecast. It greatly helped the decision makers in issuing a timely and correct alert.

In this work we present the operational outputs of the system provided during the Liguria events and the post event hydrological modelling analysis that has been carried out accounting also for the crowd sourcing information and data. We discuss the benefit of the implemented probabilistic systems for decision-making under uncertainty, highlighting how, in this case, the multi-catchment approach used for predicting floods in small basins has been crucial.

Operator reliability study for Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an operating research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohamed, F.; Hassan, A.; Yahaya, R.; Rahman, I.; Maskin, M.; Praktom, P.; Charlie, F.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) for Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) is performed on research nuclear reactor. • Implemented qualitative HRA framework is addressed. • Human Failure Events of significant impact to the reactor safety are derived. - Abstract: A Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) for the TRIGA Mark II research reactor of Malaysian Nuclear Agency has been developed to evaluate the potential risk in its operation. In conjunction to this PSA development, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is performed in order to determine human contribution to the risk. The aim of this study is to qualitatively analyze human actions (HAs) involved in the operation of this reactor according to the qualitative part of the HRA framework for PSA which is namely the identification, qualitative screening and modeling of HAs. By performing this framework, Human Failure Events (HFEs) of significant impact to the reactor safety are systematically analyzed and incorporated into the PSA structure. A part of the findings in this study will become the input for the subsequent quantitative part of the HRA framework, i.e. the Human Error Probability (HEP) quantification

Probabilistic broadcasting of mixed states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Lvjun; Li Lvzhou; Wu Lihua; Zou Xiangfu; Qiu Daowen

2009-01-01

It is well known that the non-broadcasting theorem proved by Barnum et al is a fundamental principle of quantum communication. As we are aware, optimal broadcasting (OB) is the only method to broadcast noncommuting mixed states approximately. In this paper, motivated by the probabilistic cloning of quantum states proposed by Duan and Guo, we propose a new way for broadcasting noncommuting mixed states-probabilistic broadcasting (PB), and we present a sufficient condition for PB of mixed states. To a certain extent, we generalize the probabilistic cloning theorem from pure states to mixed states, and in particular, we generalize the non-broadcasting theorem, since the case that commuting mixed states can be exactly broadcast can be thought of as a special instance of PB where the success ratio is 1. Moreover, we discuss probabilistic local broadcasting (PLB) of separable bipartite states

Probabilistic modeling of timber structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Faber, Michael Havbro

2007-01-01

The present paper contains a proposal for the probabilistic modeling of timber material properties. It is produced in the context of the Probabilistic Model Code (PMC) of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) [Joint Committee of Structural Safety. Probabilistic Model Code, Internet...... Publication: www.jcss.ethz.ch; 2001] and of the COST action E24 ‘Reliability of Timber Structures' [COST Action E 24, Reliability of timber structures. Several meetings and Publications, Internet Publication: http://www.km.fgg.uni-lj.si/coste24/coste24.htm; 2005]. The present proposal is based on discussions...... and comments from participants of the COST E24 action and the members of the JCSS. The paper contains a description of the basic reference properties for timber strength parameters and ultimate limit state equations for timber components. The recommended probabilistic model for these basic properties...

Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

Science.gov (United States)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

2017-06-01

The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

1997-01-01

probabilistic code format has not only strong influence on the formal reliability measure, but also on the formal cost of failure to be associated if a design made to the target reliability level is considered to be optimal. In fact, the formal cost of failure can be different by several orders of size for two...... different, but by and large equally justifiable probabilistic code formats. Thus, the consequence is that a code format based on decision theoretical concepts and formulated as an extension of a probabilistic code format must specify formal values to be used as costs of failure. A principle of prudence...... is suggested for guiding the choice of the reference probabilistic code format for constant reliability. In the author's opinion there is an urgent need for establishing a standard probabilistic reliability code. This paper presents some considerations that may be debatable, but nevertheless point...

Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

1984-01-01

A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

Development Of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment: The Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Y.H.; Mosleh, A.; Dang, V.N.

2003-01-01

The development of a dynamic methodology for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) addresses the complex interactions between the behaviour of technical systems and personnel response in the evolution of accident scenarios. This paper introduces the discrete dynamic event tree, a framework for dynamic PSA, and its implementation in the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) tool. Dynamic event tree tools generate and quantify accident scenarios through coupled simulation models of the plant physical processes, its automatic systems, the equipment reliability, and the human response. The current research on the framework, the ADS tool, and on Human Reliability Analysis issues within dynamic PSA, is discussed. (author)

Development Of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment: The Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) Tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Y.H.; Mosleh, A.; Dang, V.N

2003-03-01

The development of a dynamic methodology for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) addresses the complex interactions between the behaviour of technical systems and personnel response in the evolution of accident scenarios. This paper introduces the discrete dynamic event tree, a framework for dynamic PSA, and its implementation in the Accident Dynamic Simulator (ADS) tool. Dynamic event tree tools generate and quantify accident scenarios through coupled simulation models of the plant physical processes, its automatic systems, the equipment reliability, and the human response. The current research on the framework, the ADS tool, and on Human Reliability Analysis issues within dynamic PSA, is discussed. (author)

Use of cut-off values as meaningfulness limits in probabilistic studies and its effect on NPPs risk assessment and safety improvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petrangeli, G.; Valeri, A.; Zaffiro, C.

1991-01-01

This paper discusses the use of cut-off values in probabilistic risk assessment/probabilistic safety assessment (PRA/PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs), in order to explore under which conditions this practice may help improve the meaningfulness of the results of the analyses and safety of plants, and how it may affect the assessment of risk. Reference is made, in particular, to some past practical applications, also taken from the experience of the authors within the frame of the Italian licensing process. The paper describes the Italian probabilistic criteria which use probabilistic targets and cut-off values to assess safety and identify plant safety improvements. The rationale of the approach is also discussed in the paper and results of sample applications are illustrated. The paper concludes that the use of cut-off values, if properly implemented, could be productive to improve the plant safety as it helps the analyst to focus on a restricted field of analysis, ignoring lower probability and less known events. It also points out that cut-off values should be considered as living numbers to be lowered and even eliminated as soon as significant advancements are made, through research and operational experience, in the knowledge of the pertinent events

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmer, Mark; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; van de Pol, Jan Cornelis

2010-01-01

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the

Machine learning, computer vision, and probabilistic models in jet physics

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; NACHMAN, Ben

2015-01-01

In this talk we present recent developments in the application of machine learning, computer vision, and probabilistic models to the analysis and interpretation of LHC events. First, we will introduce the concept of jet-images and computer vision techniques for jet tagging. Jet images enabled the connection between jet substructure and tagging with the fields of computer vision and image processing for the first time, improving the performance to identify highly boosted W bosons with respect to state-of-the-art methods, and providing a new way to visualize the discriminant features of different classes of jets, adding a new capability to understand the physics within jets and to design more powerful jet tagging methods. Second, we will present Fuzzy jets: a new paradigm for jet clustering using machine learning methods. Fuzzy jets view jet clustering as an unsupervised learning task and incorporate a probabilistic assignment of particles to jets to learn new features of the jet structure. In particular, we wi...

Quantification of human reliability in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Dankg, Vinh N.

1996-01-01

Human performance may substantially influence the reliability and safety of complex technical systems. For this reason, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) constitutes an important part of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSAs) or Quantitative Risk Analyses (QRAs). The results of these studies as well as analyses of past accidents and incidents clearly demonstrate the importance of human interactions. The contribution of human errors to the core damage frequency (CDF), as estimated in the Swedish nuclear PSAs, are between 15 and 88%. A survey of the FRAs in the Swiss PSAs shows that also for the Swiss nuclear power plants the estimated HE contributions are substantial (49% of the CDF due to internal events in the case of Beznau and 70% in the case of Muehleberg; for the total CDF, including external events, 25% respectively 20%). Similar results can be extracted from the PSAs carried out for French, German, and US plants. In PSAs or QRAs, the adequate treatment of the human interactions with the system is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance to overall risk. The main objectives of HRA are: first, to ensure that the key human interactions are systematically identified and incorporated into the safety analysis in a traceable manner, and second, to quantify the probabilities of their success and failure. Adopting a structured and systematic approach to the assessment of human performance makes it possible to provide greater confidence that the safety and availability of human-machine systems is not unduly jeopardized by human performance problems. Section 2 discusses the different types of human interactions analysed in PSAs. More generally, the section presents how HRA fits in the overall safety analysis, that is, how the human interactions to be quantified are identified. Section 3 addresses the methods for quantification. Section 4 concludes the paper by presenting some recommendations and pointing out the limitations of the

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Spared internal but impaired external reward prediction error signals in major depressive disorder during reinforcement learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Bakic, Jasmina; Pourtois, Gilles; Jepma, Marieke; Duprat, Romain; De Raedt, Rudi; Baeken, Chris

2017-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) creates debilitating effects on a wide range of cognitive functions, including reinforcement learning (RL). In this study, we sought to assess whether reward processing as such, or alternatively the complex interplay between motivation and reward might potentially account for the abnormal reward-based learning in MDD. A total of 35 treatment resistant MDD patients and 44 age matched healthy controls (HCs) performed a standard probabilistic learning task. RL was titrated using behavioral, computational modeling and event-related brain potentials (ERPs) data. MDD patients showed comparable learning rate compared to HCs. However, they showed decreased lose-shift responses as well as blunted subjective evaluations of the reinforcers used during the task, relative to HCs. Moreover, MDD patients showed normal internal (at the level of error-related negativity, ERN) but abnormal external (at the level of feedback-related negativity, FRN) reward prediction error (RPE) signals during RL, selectively when additional efforts had to be made to establish learning. Collectively, these results lend support to the assumption that MDD does not impair reward processing per se during RL. Instead, it seems to alter the processing of the emotional value of (external) reinforcers during RL, when additional intrinsic motivational processes have to be engaged. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An application of the ESD framework to the probabilistic risk assessment of dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swaminathan, S.; Smidts, Carol

2000-01-01

Dynamic reliability is the probabilistic study of man-machine-software systems affected by an underlying physical process. The theory of probabilistic dynamics established that dynamic reliability methodologies are essentially semi-Markovian frameworks and can be expressed by an extension of the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. The mathematical complexity associated with the assessment of dynamic systems' behaviour can be rather overwhelming for real life size systems. This is due to the fact that dynamic methodologies emphasize a component based representation rather than the sequence based representation used in the traditional Event Tree/Fault Tree framework or in the original Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) Framework. An extension of the ESD framework was proposed that facilitates capture of dynamic situations. The modeling framework is composed of events, gates, conditions, competitions and constraints which express many of the dynamic situations encountered in the evolution of accidents. The following paper illustrates an application of this extended ESD framework on a complex dynamic application. The problem at hand is an extension of a problem extensively studied in the validation of dynamic reliability algorithms, a simplified model of the fast reactor Europa. A discussion on how ESDs can help in guiding dynamic reliability simulations as well as aggregating and binning the numerous scenarios generated by dynamic reliability algorithms is provided.(author)

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Besterfield, Glen

1988-01-01

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.

Probabilistic risk assessment and its role in plant modifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diederich, A.R.; McElroy, W.F.

1986-01-01

Electric Utilities today have a tool available to improve management's ability to evaluate nuclear power plant modifications (MODS). Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), is a tool of choice since it can be applied to a specific situation such as MOD request review, bringing the perspectives of reliability, financial risk and consequences to the public in addition to the more rigid requirements like those associated with Quality Assurance or licensing criteria. The techniques used in the PRA process revolve about the creation and manipulation of Fault Trees and Event Trees, which are used to quantify the event sequences and reliability of plant systems in a logical framework. It is through these methods that chains of sequences, or events, are understood. The degree to which plant systems are modelled in the PRA can vary depending on resources and purpose. Philadelphia Elecrtric Company's PRA modelled ten (10) major systems but this number may increase during the application and updating process

Affective and cognitive factors influencing sensitivity to probabilistic information.

Science.gov (United States)

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Sawicki, Przemyslaw

2011-11-01

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Probabilistic Mu-Calculus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian

2016-01-01

We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisfiability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisfiability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...

Joint Attributes and Event Analysis for Multimedia Event Detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Zhigang; Chang, Xiaojun; Xu, Zhongwen; Sebe, Nicu; Hauptmann, Alexander G

2017-06-15

Semantic attributes have been increasingly used the past few years for multimedia event detection (MED) with promising results. The motivation is that multimedia events generally consist of lower level components such as objects, scenes, and actions. By characterizing multimedia event videos with semantic attributes, one could exploit more informative cues for improved detection results. Much existing work obtains semantic attributes from images, which may be suboptimal for video analysis since these image-inferred attributes do not carry dynamic information that is essential for videos. To address this issue, we propose to learn semantic attributes from external videos using their semantic labels. We name them video attributes in this paper. In contrast with multimedia event videos, these external videos depict lower level contents such as objects, scenes, and actions. To harness video attributes, we propose an algorithm established on a correlation vector that correlates them to a target event. Consequently, we could incorporate video attributes latently as extra information into the event detector learnt from multimedia event videos in a joint framework. To validate our method, we perform experiments on the real-world large-scale TRECVID MED 2013 and 2014 data sets and compare our method with several state-of-the-art algorithms. The experiments show that our method is advantageous for MED.

A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derby, S.L.

1983-01-01

The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims

Science.gov (United States)

Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.

Compression of Probabilistic XML documents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veldman, Irma

2009-01-01

Probabilistic XML (PXML) files resulting from data integration can become extremely large, which is undesired. For XML there are several techniques available to compress the document and since probabilistic XML is in fact (a special form of) XML, it might benefit from these methods even more. In

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 5. System reliability and analysis techniques Session D - quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lofgren, E.V.

1985-08-01

This course in System Reliability and Analysis Techniques focuses on the probabilistic quantification of accident sequences and the link between accident sequences and consequences. Other sessions in this series focus on the quantification of system reliability and the development of event trees and fault trees. This course takes the viewpoint that event tree sequences or combinations of system failures and success are available and that Boolean equations for system fault trees have been developed and are available. 93 figs., 11 tabs

A probabilistic approach to the computation of the levelized cost of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geissmann, Thomas

2017-01-01

This paper sets forth a novel approach to calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) using a probabilistic model that accounts for endogenous input parameters. The approach is applied to the example of a nuclear and gas power project. Monte Carlo simulation results show that a correlation between input parameters has a significant effect on the model outcome. By controlling for endogeneity, a statistically significant difference in the mean LCOE estimate and a change in the order of input leverages is observed. Moreover, the paper discusses the role of discounting options and external costs in detail. In contrast to the gas power project, the economic viability of the nuclear project is considerably weaker. - Highlights: • First model of levelized cost of electricity accounting for uncertainty and endogeneities in input parameters. • Allowance for endogeneities significantly affects results. • Role of discounting options and external costs is discussed and modelled.

Probabilistic Infinite Secret Sharing

OpenAIRE

Csirmaz, László

2013-01-01

The study of probabilistic secret sharing schemes using arbitrary probability spaces and possibly infinite number of participants lets us investigate abstract properties of such schemes. It highlights important properties, explains why certain definitions work better than others, connects this topic to other branches of mathematics, and might yield new design paradigms. A probabilistic secret sharing scheme is a joint probability distribution of the shares and the secret together with a colle...

Probabilistic safety assessment past, present and future. An IAEA perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lederman, L.; Niehaus, F.; Tomic, B.

1996-01-01

Despite the high level of development that probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methods have reached, a number of issues place constraints on its use in supporting decision making on safety matters. A recent publication of the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) represents an important step in reaching international consensus on the use of PSA. PSA is ''strongly encouraged'' by INSAG; however, it is noted that ''PSA methodology is not sufficiently mature for its present status to be frozen''. The main aspects of the report are discussed in this paper. The paper next discusses three main categories of PSA application, namely the adequacy of design and procedures, optimization of operational activities and regulatory applications. For each of the applications, the objectives, specific modelling requirements and the prospects for implementation are presented. Consistent with its statutory functions, an important aspect of the work of the IAEA is to reach international consensus on the possibilities of and limitations on the use of PSA methods. Whereas past efforts have been concentrated on promotion and assistance to perform Level 1 PSAs, work is now extending with emphasis on PSA applications, Level 2 and Level 3 analysis, external events and shutdown risks. The main elements of IAEA's PSA Programme are discussed. Finally some challenges related to the use of PSA in the backfitting of nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe and countries of the former USSR are addressed. (orig.)

Frequency of damage by external explosion hazards based on geographical information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, Guenter; Camarinopoulos, Alexis; Theodora, Karali; Camarinopoulos, Leonidas; Schubert, B.

2013-01-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighbourhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. A probabilistic model has been developed to calculate frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. (orig.)

Frequency of damage by external explosion hazards based on geographical information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, Guenter [Risa Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin-Charlottenburg (Germany); Camarinopoulos, Alexis; Theodora, Karali [Environment Reliability and Risk Analysis (ERRA), Athens (Greece); Camarinopoulos, Leonidas [Piraeus Univ. (Greece); Schubert, B. [VENE, Hamburg (Germany)

2013-05-15

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighbourhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. A probabilistic model has been developed to calculate frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. (orig.)

CANDU 6 probabilistic safety study summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-07-01

This report summarizes the methodology, phenomenology and results relevent to the assessment of severe events in a CANDU 6 (formerly designated CANDU 600) station. The station design being analysed is based on a CANDU 6 Mark I currently operating in Canada. This evaluation includes event frequency and fission product release assessments but does not include assessment of radiation dose to the public, so that the information is equivalent to a level 2 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The study has shown that the predicted overall average frequency for core melt in a CANDU 6 Mark I is 4.4 x 10 -6 events/year. This low frequency is, in large part due to the heavy water moderator which acts as a heat sink, prevents UO 2 melting and maintains core geometry for many events which could otherwise result in a core melt. The consequences for most core melts will be limited to the release of a fraction of noble gases and organic iodides. Other isotopes will be condensed or dissolved in the containment atmosphere and are ultimately retained in the pool of water in the basement where they are unavailable for release. Most core melts (∼ 90%) can be mitigated by operator action so that there is no danger of consequential damage to the containment structure and leak tightness. The frequency and consequences of less likely, more severe core melt sequences are also discussed in this report and shown to be small contributors to public risk

An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alessandrini, S.; Delle Monache, L.; Sperati, S.; Cervone, G.

2015-01-01

forecasts and observations of the solar power. For each forecast lead time and location, the ensemble prediction of solar power is constituted by a set of past production data. These measurements are those concurrent to past deterministic NWP forecasts for the same lead time and location, chosen based on their similarity to the current forecast and, in the current application, are represented by the one-hour average produced solar power. The AnEn performance for SPF is compared to a quantile regression (QR) technique and a persistence ensemble (PeEn) over three solar farms in Italy spanning different climatic conditions. The QR is a state-of-the-science method for probabilistic predictions that, similarly to AnEn, is based on a historical data set. The PeEn is a persistence model for probabilistic predictions, where the most recent 20 power measurements available at the same lead-time are used to form an ensemble. The performance assessment has been carried out evaluating important attributes of a probabilistic system such as statistical consistency, reliability, resolution and skill. The AnEn performs as well as QR for common events, by providing predictions with similar reliability, resolution and sharpness, while it exhibits more skill for rare events and during hours with a low solar elevation.

Probabilistic safety assessment of the dual-cooled waste transmutation blanket for the FDS-I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, L.; Wu, Y.

2006-01-01

The subcritical dual-cooled waste transmutation (DWT) blanket is one of the key components of fusion-driven subcritical system (FDS-I). The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) can provide valuable information on safety characteristics of FDS-I to give recommendations for the optimization of the blanket concepts and the improvement of the design. Event tree method has been adopted to probabilistically analyze the safety of the DWT blanket for FDS-I using the home-developed PSA code RiskA. The blanket melting frequency has been calculated and compared with the core melting frequencies of PWRs and a fast reactor. Sensitivity analysis of the safety systems has been performed. The results show that the current preliminary design of the FDS-I is very attractive in safety

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns

Science.gov (United States)

Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E

2015-01-01

There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561

Compositional Solution Space Quantification for Probabilistic Software Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Borges, Mateus; Pasareanu, Corina S.; Filieri, Antonio; d'Amorim, Marcelo; Visser, Willem

2014-01-01

Probabilistic software analysis aims at quantifying how likely a target event is to occur during program execution. Current approaches rely on symbolic execution to identify the conditions to reach the target event and try to quantify the fraction of the input domain satisfying these conditions. Precise quantification is usually limited to linear constraints, while only approximate solutions can be provided in general through statistical approaches. However, statistical approaches may fail to converge to an acceptable accuracy within a reasonable time. We present a compositional statistical approach for the efficient quantification of solution spaces for arbitrarily complex constraints over bounded floating-point domains. The approach leverages interval constraint propagation to improve the accuracy of the estimation by focusing the sampling on the regions of the input domain containing the sought solutions. Preliminary experiments show significant improvement on previous approaches both in results accuracy and analysis time.

Probabilistic simple sticker systems

Science.gov (United States)

Selvarajoo, Mathuri; Heng, Fong Wan; Sarmin, Nor Haniza; Turaev, Sherzod

2017-04-01

A model for DNA computing using the recombination behavior of DNA molecules, known as a sticker system, was introduced by by L. Kari, G. Paun, G. Rozenberg, A. Salomaa, and S. Yu in the paper entitled DNA computing, sticker systems and universality from the journal of Acta Informatica vol. 35, pp. 401-420 in the year 1998. A sticker system uses the Watson-Crick complementary feature of DNA molecules: starting from the incomplete double stranded sequences, and iteratively using sticking operations until a complete double stranded sequence is obtained. It is known that sticker systems with finite sets of axioms and sticker rules generate only regular languages. Hence, different types of restrictions have been considered to increase the computational power of sticker systems. Recently, a variant of restricted sticker systems, called probabilistic sticker systems, has been introduced [4]. In this variant, the probabilities are initially associated with the axioms, and the probability of a generated string is computed by multiplying the probabilities of all occurrences of the initial strings in the computation of the string. Strings for the language are selected according to some probabilistic requirements. In this paper, we study fundamental properties of probabilistic simple sticker systems. We prove that the probabilistic enhancement increases the computational power of simple sticker systems.

Probabilistic numerical discrimination in mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkay, Dilara; Çavdaroğlu, Bilgehan; Balcı, Fuat

2016-03-01

Previous studies showed that both human and non-human animals can discriminate between different quantities (i.e., time intervals, numerosities) with a limited level of precision due to their endogenous/representational uncertainty. In addition, other studies have shown that subjects can modulate their temporal categorization responses adaptively by incorporating information gathered regarding probabilistic contingencies into their time-based decisions. Despite the psychophysical similarities between the interval timing and nonverbal counting functions, the sensitivity of count-based decisions to probabilistic information remains an unanswered question. In the current study, we investigated whether exogenous probabilistic information can be integrated into numerosity-based judgments by mice. In the task employed in this study, reward was presented either after few (i.e., 10) or many (i.e., 20) lever presses, the last of which had to be emitted on the lever associated with the corresponding trial type. In order to investigate the effect of probabilistic information on performance in this task, we manipulated the relative frequency of different trial types across different experimental conditions. We evaluated the behavioral performance of the animals under models that differed in terms of their assumptions regarding the cost of responding (e.g., logarithmically increasing vs. no response cost). Our results showed for the first time that mice could adaptively modulate their count-based decisions based on the experienced probabilistic contingencies in directions predicted by optimality.

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)

OpenAIRE

Yang, Hongseok

2017-01-01

Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...

Initiating Events for Multi-Reactor Plant Sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Flanagan, George F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Poore, III, Willis P. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

Inherent in the design of modular reactors is the increased likelihood of events that initiate at a single reactor affecting another reactor. Because of the increased level of interactions between reactors, it is apparent that the Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) for modular reactor designs need to specifically address the increased interactions and dependencies.

Probabilistic Harmonic Modeling of Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guest, Emerson; Jensen, Kim H.; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg

2017-01-01

A probabilistic sequence domain (SD) harmonic model of a grid-connected voltage-source converter is used to estimate harmonic emissions in a wind power plant (WPP) comprised of Type-IV wind turbines. The SD representation naturally partitioned converter generated voltage harmonics into those...... with deterministic phase and those with probabilistic phase. A case study performed on a string of ten 3MW, Type-IV wind turbines implemented in PSCAD was used to verify the probabilistic SD harmonic model. The probabilistic SD harmonic model can be employed in the planning phase of WPP projects to assess harmonic...

A convergence theory for probabilistic metric spaces | Jäger ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We develop a theory of probabilistic convergence spaces based on Tardiff's neighbourhood systems for probabilistic metric spaces. We show that the resulting category is a topological universe and we characterize a subcategory that is isomorphic to the category of probabilistic metric spaces. Keywords: Probabilistic metric ...

Stormwater Tank Performance: Design and Management Criteria for Capture Tanks Using a Continuous Simulation and a Semi-Probabilistic Analytical Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavio De Martino

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Stormwater tank performance significantly depends on management practices. This paper proposes a procedure to assess tank efficiency in terms of volume and pollutant concentration using four different capture tank management protocols. The comparison of the efficiency results reveals that, as expected, a combined bypass—stormwater tank system achieves better results than a tank alone. The management practices tested for the tank-only systems provide notably different efficiency results. The practice of immediately emptying after the end of the event exhibits significant levels of efficiency and operational advantages. All other configurations exhibit either significant operational problems or very low performances. The continuous simulation and semi-probabilistic approach for the best tank management practice are compared. The semi-probabilistic approach is based on a Weibull probabilistic model of the main characteristics of the rainfall process. Following this approach, efficiency indexes were established. The comparison with continuous simulations shows the reliability of the probabilistic approach even if this last is certainly very site sensitive.

Probabilistic safety assessment for Hanford high-level waste tank 241-SY-101

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MacFarlane, D.R.; Bott, T.F.; Brown, L.F.; Stack, D.W. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Kindinger, J.; Deremer, R.K.; Medhekar, S.R.; Mikschl, T.J. [PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, CA (United States)

1994-05-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory (Los Alamos) is performing a comprehensive probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which will include consideration of external events for the 18 tank farms at the Hanford Site. This effort is sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE/EM, EM-36). Even though the methodology described herein will be applied to the entire tank farm, this report focuses only on the risk from the weapons-production wastes stored in tank number 241-SY-101, commonly known as Tank 101-SY, as configured in December 1992. This tank, which periodically releases ({open_quotes}burps{close_quotes}) a gaseous mixture of hydrogen, nitrous oxide, ammonia, and nitrogen, was analyzed first because of public safety concerns associated with the potential for release of radioactive tank contents should this gas mixture be ignited during one of the burps. In an effort to mitigate the burping phenomenon, an experiment is being conducted in which a large pump has been inserted into the tank to determine if pump-induced circulation of the tank contents will promote a slow, controlled release of the gases. At the Hanford Site there are 177 underground tanks in 18 separate tank farms containing accumulated liquid/sludge/salt cake radioactive wastes from 50 yr of weapons materials production activities. The total waste volume is about 60 million gal., which contains approximately 120 million Ci of radioactivity.

Probabilistic safety assessment for Hanford high-level waste tank 241-SY-101

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacFarlane, D.R.; Bott, T.F.; Brown, L.F.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.; Deremer, R.K.; Medhekar, S.R.; Mikschl, T.J.

1994-05-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory (Los Alamos) is performing a comprehensive probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), which will include consideration of external events for the 18 tank farms at the Hanford Site. This effort is sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE/EM, EM-36). Even though the methodology described herein will be applied to the entire tank farm, this report focuses only on the risk from the weapons-production wastes stored in tank number 241-SY-101, commonly known as Tank 101-SY, as configured in December 1992. This tank, which periodically releases (open-quotes burpsclose quotes) a gaseous mixture of hydrogen, nitrous oxide, ammonia, and nitrogen, was analyzed first because of public safety concerns associated with the potential for release of radioactive tank contents should this gas mixture be ignited during one of the burps. In an effort to mitigate the burping phenomenon, an experiment is being conducted in which a large pump has been inserted into the tank to determine if pump-induced circulation of the tank contents will promote a slow, controlled release of the gases. At the Hanford Site there are 177 underground tanks in 18 separate tank farms containing accumulated liquid/sludge/salt cake radioactive wastes from 50 yr of weapons materials production activities. The total waste volume is about 60 million gal., which contains approximately 120 million Ci of radioactivity

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

OpenAIRE

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

2011-01-01

The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

Engineering safety review mission Krsko NPP external events PSA. Ljubljana, Slovenia 19-23 February 1996. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Smith, P.

1996-01-01

Within the scope of the TC Project RER/9/035, a review mission visited Ljubljana, Slovenia, 19-23 February 1996. Two outside experts, Messrs. R.J. Budnitz (USA) and Paul Smith (USA), as well as a staff member, A. Guerpinar (ESS-NSNI) took part in the review. The purpose of the mission was to assist the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration to review the external events PSA prepared by Krsko NPP consultants Westinghouse Energy Systems Europe and EQE International. Another seismic safety review was performed concurrently in Ljubljana involving the investigations in relation to the tectonic stability and reassessment of the design basis ground motion characterization for the Krsko NPP site

Accident analyses in nuclear power plants following external initiating events and in the shutdown state. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loeffler, Horst; Kowalik, Michael; Mildenberger, Oliver; Hage, Michael

2016-06-01

The work which is documented here provides the methodological basis for improvement of the state of knowledge for accident sequences after plant external initiating events and for accident sequences which begin in the shutdown state. The analyses have been done for a PWR and for a BWR reference plant. The work has been supported by the German federal ministry BMUB under the label 3612R01361. Top objectives of the work are: - Identify relevant event sequences in order to define characteristic initial and boundary conditions - Perform accident analysis of selected sequences - Evaluate the relevance of accident sequences in a qualitative way The accident analysis is performed with the code MELCOR 1.8.6. The applied input data set has been significantly improved compared to previous analyses. The event tree method which is established in PSA level 2 has been applied for creating a structure for a unified summarization and evaluation of the results from the accident analyses. The computer code EVNTRE has been applied for this purpose. In contrast to a PSA level 2, the branching probabilities of the event tree have not been determined with the usual accuracy, but they are given in an approximate way only. For the PWR, the analyses show a considerable protective effect of the containment also in the case of beyond design events. For the BWR, there is a rather high probability for containment failure under core melt impact, but nevertheless the release of radionuclides into the environment is very limited because of plant internal retention mechanisms. This report concludes with remarks about existing knowledge gaps and with regard to core melt sequences, and about possible improvements of the plant safety.

Outcomes of external cephalic version and breech presentation at term, an audit of deliveries at a Sydney tertiary obstetric hospital, 1997-2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Nassar, Natasha; Roberts, Christine L; Cameron, Carolyn A; Peat, Brian

2006-01-01

Probabilistic information on outcomes of breech presentation is important for clinical decision-making. We aim to quantify adverse maternal and fetal outcomes of breech presentation at term. We conducted an audit of 1,070 women with a term, singleton breech presentation who were classified as eligible or ineligible for external cephalic version or diagnosed in labor at a tertiary obstetric hospital in Australia, 1997-2004. Maternal, delivery and perinatal outcomes were assessed and frequency of events quantified. Five hundred and sixty (52%) women were eligible and 170 (16%) were ineligible for external cephalic version, 211 (20%) women were diagnosed in labor and 134 (12%) were unclassifiable. Seventy-one percent of eligible women had an external cephalic version, with a 39% success rate. Adverse outcomes of breech presentation at term were rare: immediate delivery for prelabor rupture of membranes (1.3%), nuchal cord (9.3%), cord prolapse (0.4%), and fetal death (0.3%); and did not differ by clinical classification. Women who had an external cephalic version had a reduced risk of onset-of-labor within 24 h (RR 0.25; 95%CI 0.08, 0.82) compared with women eligible for but who did not have an external cephalic version. Women diagnosed with breech in labor had the highest rates of emergency cesarean section (64%), cord prolapse (1.4%) and poorest infant outcomes. Adverse maternal and fetal outcomes of breech presentation at term are rare and there was no increased risk of complications after external cephalic version. Findings provide important data to quantify the frequency of adverse outcomes that will help facilitate informed decision-making and ensure optimal management of breech presentation.

Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

Science.gov (United States)

Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

2015-12-01

Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

Application of the methodology of safety probabilistic analysis to the modelling the emergency feedwater system of Juragua nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Troncoso, M.; Oliva, G.

1993-01-01

The application of the methodology developed in the framework of the national plan of safety probabilistic analysis (APS) to the emergency feed water system for the failures of small LOCAS and external electrical supply loss in the nuclear power plant is illustrated in this work. The facilities created by the ARCON code to model the systems and its documentation are also expounded

Biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation for probabilistic safety assessment

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Xiao-Lei Pan; Jia-Qun Wang; Run Yuan; Fang Wang; Han-Qing Lin; Li-Qin Hu; Jin Wang

2017-01-01

Direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a powerful probabilistic safety assessment method for accounting dynamics of the system.But it is not efficient at simulating rare events.A biasing transition rate method based on direct MC simulation is proposed to solve the problem in this paper.This method biases transition rates of the components by adding virtual components to them in series to increase the occurrence probability of the rare event,hence the decrease in the variance of MC estimator.Several cases are used to benchmark this method.The results show that the method is effective at modeling system failure and is more efficient at collecting evidence of rare events than the direct MC simulation.The performance is greatly improved by the biasing transition rate method.

Component external leakage and rupture frequency estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Calley, M.B.; Johnson, D.A.; Marteeny, M.L.

1991-11-01

In order to perform detailed internal flooding risk analyses of nuclear power plants, external leakage and rupture frequencies are needed for various types of components - piping, valves, pumps, flanges, and others. However, there appears to be no up-to-date, comprehensive source for such frequency estimates. This report attempts to fill that void. Based on a comprehensive search of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) contained in Nuclear Power Experience (NPE), and estimates of component populations and exposure times, component external leakage and rupture frequencies were generated. The remainder of this report covers the specifies of the NPE search for external leakage and rupture events, analysis of the data, a comparison with frequency estimates from other sources, and a discussion of the results

Probabilistic studies of accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villemeur, A.; Berger, J.P.

1986-01-01

For several years, Electricite de France has carried out probabilistic assessment of accident sequences for nuclear power plants. In the framework of this program many methods were developed. As the interest in these studies was increasing and as adapted methods were developed, Electricite de France has undertaken a probabilistic safety assessment of a nuclear power plant [fr

Convex sets in probabilistic normed spaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aghajani, Asadollah; Nourouzi, Kourosh

2008-01-01

In this paper we obtain some results on convexity in a probabilistic normed space. We also investigate the concept of CSN-closedness and CSN-compactness in a probabilistic normed space and generalize the corresponding results of normed spaces

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Probabilistic finite elements

Science.gov (United States)

Belytschko, Ted; Wing, Kam Liu

1987-01-01

In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.

Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, G. [RISA Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T. [ERRA, Athens (Greece); Camarinopoulos, L. [Piraeus Univ. (Greece); Schubert, B. [VENE, Hamburg (Germany)

2013-07-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.; Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T.; Camarinopoulos, L.; Schubert, B.

2013-01-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

Report of the IPERS (International Peer Review Service) pre-review mission for the Cernavoda nuclear power plant probabilistic safety evaluation (CPSE - PHASE B) in Romania 31 October to 3 November 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

This report presents the results of the IAEA international peer review services pre-review mission which reviewed the status of the present version of the Cernavoda probabilistic safety evaluation, a Level 1 internal events Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the Cernavoda, Unit 1, nuclear power plant. 2 refs

Probabilistic reasoning with graphical security models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kordy, Barbara; Pouly, Marc; Schweitzer, Patrick

This work provides a computational framework for meaningful probabilistic evaluation of attack–defense scenarios involving dependent actions. We combine the graphical security modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. In order

Advanced neutron source reactor probabilistic flow blockage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsey, C.T.

1995-08-01

The Phase I Level I Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the conceptual design of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) Reactor identified core flow blockage as the most likely internal event leading to fuel damage. The flow blockage event frequency used in the original ANS PRA was based primarily on the flow blockage work done for the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) PRA. This report examines potential flow blockage scenarios and calculates an estimate of the likelihood of debris-induced fuel damage. The bulk of the report is based specifically on the conceptual design of ANS with a 93%-enriched, two-element core; insights to the impact of the proposed three-element core are examined in Sect. 5. In addition to providing a probability (uncertainty) distribution for the likelihood of core flow blockage, this ongoing effort will serve to indicate potential areas of concern to be focused on in the preliminary design for elimination or mitigation. It will also serve as a loose-parts management tool

Risk Management Technologies With Logic and Probabilistic Models

CERN Document Server

Solozhentsev, E D

2012-01-01

This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.  The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the  discussed  procedures of I3-technologies  are the construction of  LP-models,...

Event tree analysis for the system of hybrid reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Yongwei; Qiu Lijian

1993-01-01

The application of probabilistic risk assessment for fusion-fission hybrid reactor is introduced. A hybrid reactor system has been analysed using event trees. According to the character of the conceptual design of Hefei Fusion-fission Experimental Hybrid Breeding Reactor, the probabilities of the event tree series induced by 4 typical initiating events were calculated. The results showed that the conceptual design is safe and reasonable. through this paper, the safety character of hybrid reactor system has been understood more deeply. Some suggestions valuable to safety design for hybrid reactor have been proposed

Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Titina, B.; Cepin, M.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Aldini, A.; Baier, C.

2008-01-01

The notion of branching bisimulation for the alternating model of probabilistic systems is not a congruence with respect to parallel composition. In this paper we first define another branching bisimulation in the more general model allowing consecutive probabilistic transitions, and we prove that

A Probabilistic Model of Meter Perception: Simulating Enculturation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bastiaan van der Weij

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Enculturation is known to shape the perception of meter in music but this is not explicitly accounted for by current cognitive models of meter perception. We hypothesize that the induction of meter is a result of predictive coding: interpreting onsets in a rhythm relative to a periodic meter facilitates prediction of future onsets. Such prediction, we hypothesize, is based on previous exposure to rhythms. As such, predictive coding provides a possible explanation for the way meter perception is shaped by the cultural environment. Based on this hypothesis, we present a probabilistic model of meter perception that uses statistical properties of the relation between rhythm and meter to infer meter from quantized rhythms. We show that our model can successfully predict annotated time signatures from quantized rhythmic patterns derived from folk melodies. Furthermore, we show that by inferring meter, our model improves prediction of the onsets of future events compared to a similar probabilistic model that does not infer meter. Finally, as a proof of concept, we demonstrate how our model can be used in a simulation of enculturation. From the results of this simulation, we derive a class of rhythms that are likely to be interpreted differently by enculturated listeners with different histories of exposure to rhythms.

Containment performance evaluation for the GESSAR-II plant for seismic initiating events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiu, K.K.; Chu, T.; Ludewig, H.; Pratt, W.T.

1986-01-01

As a part of the overall effort undertaken by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to review the GESSAR-II probabilistic risk assessment, an independent containment performance evaluation was performed using the containment event tree approach. This evaluation focused principally on those accident sequences which are initiated by seismic events. This paper reports the findings of this study. 1 ref

Probabilistic approach to mechanisms

CERN Document Server

Sandler, BZ

1984-01-01

This book discusses the application of probabilistics to the investigation of mechanical systems. The book shows, for example, how random function theory can be applied directly to the investigation of random processes in the deflection of cam profiles, pitch or gear teeth, pressure in pipes, etc. The author also deals with some other technical applications of probabilistic theory, including, amongst others, those relating to pneumatic and hydraulic mechanisms and roller bearings. Many of the aspects are illustrated by examples of applications of the techniques under discussion.

Dynamic sensing model for accurate delectability of environmental phenomena using event wireless sensor network

Science.gov (United States)

Missif, Lial Raja; Kadhum, Mohammad M.

2017-09-01

Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) has been widely used for monitoring where sensors are deployed to operate independently to sense abnormal phenomena. Most of the proposed environmental monitoring systems are designed based on a predetermined sensing range which does not reflect the sensor reliability, event characteristics, and the environment conditions. Measuring of the capability of a sensor node to accurately detect an event within a sensing field is of great important for monitoring applications. This paper presents an efficient mechanism for even detection based on probabilistic sensing model. Different models have been presented theoretically in this paper to examine their adaptability and applicability to the real environment applications. The numerical results of the experimental evaluation have showed that the probabilistic sensing model provides accurate observation and delectability of an event, and it can be utilized for different environment scenarios.

Top-down versus bottom-up processing of influence diagrams in probabilistic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timmerman, R.D.; Burns, T.J.; Dodds, H.L. Jr.

1984-01-01

Recent work by Phillips et al., and Selby et al., has shown that influence diagram methodology can be a useful analytical tool in reactor safety studies. An influence diagram is a graphical representation of probabilistic dependence within a system or event sequence. Bayesian statistics are employed to transform the relationships depicted in the influence diagram into the correct expression for a desired marginal probability (e.g. the top event). As with fault trees, top-down and bottom-up algorithms have emerged as the dominant methods for quantifying influence diagrams. Purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a potential error in employing the bottom-up algorithm when dealing with interdependencies. In addition, the computing efficiency of both methods is discussed

Review process and quality assurance in the EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roglans, J.; Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.

1992-01-01

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). Within the scope of the ANL QA Programs, a QA Plan specifically for the EBR-II PRA was developed. The QA Plan covered all aspects of the PRA development, with emphasis on the procedures for document and software control, and the internal and external review process. The effort spent in the quality assurance tasks for the EBR-II PRA has reciprocated by providing acceptance of the work and confidence in the quality of the results

Probabilistic scan mode of a robot manipulator workspace using EEG signals. Part I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auat Cheein, Fernando A; Di Sciascio, Fernando; Freire Bastos, Teodiano; Carelli, Ricardo

2007-01-01

In this paper a probabilistic-based workspace scan mode of a manipulator robot is presented. The scan mode is governed by a Brain Computer Interface (BCI) based on Event Related Potentials (Synchronization and Dessynchronization events). The user is capable to select a specific position at the robot's workspace, which should be reached by the manipulator. The robot workspace is divided into cells. Each cell has a probability value associated with it. Once the robot reaches a cell, its probability value is updated. The mode the scan is made is determined by the probability of all cells at the workspace. Finally, the manipulator is teleoperated via TCP/IP

An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

1998-08-01

A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.