WorldWideScience

Sample records for explain distribution change

  1. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  2. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  3. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  4. Do changes in connectivity explain desertification?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desertification, broad-scale land degradation in drylands, is a major environmental hazard facing inhabitants of the world’s deserts as well as an important component of global change. There is no unifying framework that simply and effectively explains different forms of desertification. Here we arg...

  5. 'Universal' Distribution of Interearthquake Times Explained

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saichev, A.; Sornette, D.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a simple theory for the 'universal' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in the physics of foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks. Our theoretical calculations provide good fits to the data and show that universality is only approximate. We conclude that the distributions of interevent times do not reveal more information than what is already known from the Gutenberg-Richter and the Omori power laws. Our results reinforce the view that triggering earthquakes by other earthquakes is a key physical mechanism to understand seismicity

  6. Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma; Cillero-Castro, Carmen; Budzyńska, Agnieszka; Goldyn, Ryszard; Kozak, Anna; Rosińska, Joanna; Szeląg-Wasielewska, Elżbieta; Domek, Piotr; Jakubowska-Krepska, Natalia; Kwasizur, Kinga; Messyasz, Beata; Pełechaty, Aleksandra; Pełechaty, Mariusz; Kokocinski, Mikolaj; García-Murcia, Ana; Real, Monserrat; Romans, Elvira; Noguero-Ribes, Jordi; Duque, David Parreño; Fernández-Morán, Elísabeth; Karakaya, Nusret; Häggqvist, Kerstin; Demir, Nilsun; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Filiz, Nur; Levi, Eti E.; Iskin, Uğur; Bezirci, Gizem; Tavşanoğlu, Ülkü Nihan; Özhan, Koray; Gkelis, Spyros; Panou, Manthos; Fakioglu, Özden; Avagianos, Christos; Kaloudis, Triantafyllos; Çelik, Kemal; Yilmaz, Mete; Marcé, Rafael; Catalán, Nuria; Bravo, Andrea G.; Buck, Moritz; Colom-Montero, William; Mustonen, Kristiina; Pierson, Don; Yang, Yang; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Gonçalves, Vítor; Antoniou, Maria G.; Tsiarta, Nikoletta; McCarthy, Valerie; Perello, Victor C.; Feldmann, Tõnu; Laas, Alo; Panksep, Kristel; Tuvikene, Lea; Gagala, Ilona; Mankiewicz-Boczek, Joana; Yağcı, Meral Apaydın; Çınar, Şakir; Çapkın, Kadir; Yağcı, Abdulkadir; Cesur, Mehmet; Bilgin, Fuat; Bulut, Cafer; Uysal, Rahmi; Obertegger, Ulrike; Boscaini, Adriano; Flaim, Giovanna; Salmaso, Nico; Cerasino, Leonardo; Richardson, Jessica; Visser, Petra M.; Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Karan, Tünay; Soylu, Elif Neyran; Maraşlıoğlu, Faruk; Napiórkowska-Krzebietke, Agnieszka; Ochocka, Agnieszka; Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka; Antão-Geraldes, Ana M.; Vasconcelos, Vitor; Morais, João; Vale, Micaela; Köker, Latife; Akçaalan, Reyhan; Albay, Meriç; Špoljarić Maronić, Dubravka; Stević, Filip; Žuna Pfeiffer, Tanja; Fonvielle, Jeremy; Straile, Dietmar; Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Bláha, Luděk; Geriš, Rodan; Fránková, Markéta; Koçer, Mehmet Ali Turan; Alp, Mehmet Tahir; Remec-Rekar, Spela; Elersek, Tina; Triantis, Theodoros; Zervou, Sevasti-Kiriaki; Hiskia, Anastasia; Haande, Sigrid; Skjelbred, Birger; Madrecka, Beata; Nemova, Hana; Drastichova, Iveta; Chomova, Lucia; Edwards, Christine; Sevindik, Tuğba Ongun; Tunca, Hatice; Önem, Burçin; Aleksovski, Boris; Krstić, Svetislav; Vucelić, Itana Bokan; Nawrocka, Lidia; Salmi, Pauliina; Machado-Vieira, Danielle; de Oliveira, Alinne Gurjão; Delgado-Martín, Jordi; García, David; Cereijo, Jose Luís; Gomà, Joan; Trapote, Mari Carmen; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Obrador, Biel; Grabowska, Magdalena; Karpowicz, Maciej; Chmura, Damian; Úbeda, Bárbara; Gálvez, José Ángel; Özen, Arda; Christoffersen, Kirsten Seestern; Warming, Trine Perlt; Kobos, Justyna; Mazur-Marzec, Hanna; Pérez-Martínez, Carmen; Ramos-Rodríguez, Eloísa; Arvola, Lauri; Alcaraz-Párraga, Pablo; Toporowska, Magdalena; Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara; Niedźwiecki, Michał; Pęczuła, Wojciech; Leira, Manel; Hernández, Armand; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; Blanco, José María; Rodríguez, Valeriano; Montes-Pérez, Jorge Juan; Palomino, Roberto L.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Estela; Carballeira, Rafael; Camacho, Antonio; Picazo, Antonio; Rochera, Carlos; Santamans, Anna C.; Ferriol, Carmen; Romo, Susana; Soria, Juan Miguel; Dunalska, Julita; Sieńska, Justyna; Szymański, Daniel; Kruk, Marek; Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona; Jasser, Iwona; Žutinić, Petar; Gligora Udovič, Marija; Plenković-Moraj, Anđelka; Frąk, Magdalena; Bańkowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka; Wasilewicz, Michał; Özkan, Korhan; Maliaka, Valentini; Kangro, Kersti; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Paerl, Hans W.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Ibelings, Bas W.

    2018-04-13

    Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

  7. Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evanthia Mantzouki

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins. Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

  8. Niche segregation in two closely related species of stickleback along a physiological axis: explaining multidecadel changes in fish distribution from iron-induced respiratory impairment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verberk, W.C.E.P.; Munckhof, van den P.J.J.; Pollux, B.J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Acute exposure to iron can be lethal to fish, but long-term sublethal impacts of iron require further study. Here we investigated whether the spatial and temporal distribution (1967–2004) of two closely related species of stickleback matched the spatial distribution of iron concentrations in the

  9. Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma; Cillero-Castro, Carmen; Budzyńska, Agnieszka; Goldyn, Ryszard; Kozak, Anna; Rosińska, Joanna; Szeląg-Wasielewska, Elżbieta; Domek, Piotr; Jakubowska-Krepska, Natalia; Kwasizur, Kinga; Messyasz, Beata; Pełechaty, Aleksandra; Pełechaty, Mariusz; Kokocinski, Mikolaj; García-Murcia, Ana; Real, Monserrat; Romans, Elvira; Noguero-Ribes, Jordi; Duque, David Parreño; Fernández-Morán, Elísabeth; Karakaya, Nusret; Häggqvist, Kerstin; Demir, Nilsun; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Filiz, Nur; Levi, Eti E.; Iskin, Uğur; Bezirci, Gizem; Tavşanoğlu, Ülkü Nihan; Özhan, Koray; Gkelis, Spyros; Panou, Manthos; Fakioglu, Özden; Avagianos, Christos; Kaloudis, Triantafyllos; Çelik, Kemal; Yilmaz, Mete; Marcé, Rafael; Catalán, Nuria; Bravo, Andrea G.; Buck, Moritz; Colom-Montero, William; Mustonen, Kristiina; Pierson, Don; Yang, Yang; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Gonçalves, Vítor; Antoniou, Maria G.; Tsiarta, Nikoletta; McCarthy, Valerie; Perello, Victor C.; Feldmann, Tõnu; Laas, Alo; Panksep, Kristel; Tuvikene, Lea; Gagala, Ilona; Mankiewicz-Boczek, Joana; Yağcı, Meral Apaydın; Çınar, Şakir; Çapkın, Kadir; Yağcı, Abdulkadir; Cesur, Mehmet; Bilgin, Fuat; Bulut, Cafer; Uysal, Rahmi; Obertegger, Ulrike; Boscaini, Adriano; Flaim, Giovanna; Salmaso, Nico; Cerasino, Leonardo; Richardson, Jessica; Visser, Petra M; Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Karan, Tünay; Soylu, Elif Neyran; Maraşlıoğlu, Faruk; Napiórkowska-Krzebietke, Agnieszka; Ochocka, Agnieszka; Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka; Antão-Geraldes, Ana M.; Vasconcelos, Vitor; Morais, João; Vale, Micaela; Köker, Latife; Akçaalan, Reyhan; Albay, Meriç; Špoljarić Maronić, Dubravka; Stević, Filip; Žuna Pfeiffer, Tanja; Fonvielle, Jeremy; Straile, Dietmar; Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Bláha, Luděk; Geriš, Rodan; Fránková, Markéta; Koçer, Mehmet Ali Turan; Alp, Mehmet Tahir; Remec-Rekar, Spela; Elersek, Tina; Triantis, Theodoros; Zervou, Sevasti-Kiriaki; Hiskia, Anastasia; Haande, Sigrid; Skjelbred, Birger; Madrecka, Beata; Nemova, Hana; Drastichova, Iveta; Chomova, Lucia; Edwards, Christine; Sevindik, Tuğba Ongun; Tunca, Hatice; Önem, Burçin; Aleksovski, Boris; Krstić, Svetislav; Vucelić, Itana Bokan; Nawrocka, Lidia; Salmi, Pauliina; Machado-Vieira, Danielle; de Oliveira, Alinne Gurjão; Delgado-Martín, Jordi; García-García, David; Cereijo, Jose Luís; Gomà, Joan; Trapote, Mari Carmen; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Obrador, Biel; Grabowska, Magdalena; Karpowicz, Maciej; Chmura, Damian; Úbeda, Bárbara; Gálvez, José Ángel; Özen, Arda; Christoffersen, Kirsten Seestern; Warming, Trine Perlt; Kobos, Justyna; Mazur-Marzec, Hanna; Pérez-Martínez, Carmen; Ramos-Rodríguez, Eloísa; Arvola, Lauri; Alcaraz-Párraga, Pablo; Toporowska, Magdalena; Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara; Niedźwiecki, Michał; Pęczuła, Wojciech; Leira, Manel; Hernández, Armand; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; Blanco, José María; Rodríguez, Valeriano; Montes-Pérez, Jorge Juan; Palomino, Roberto L.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Estela; Carballeira, Rafael; Camacho, Antonio; Picazo, Antonio; Rochera, Carlos; Santamans, Anna C.; Ferriol, Carmen; Romo, Susana; Soria, Juan Miguel; Dunalska, Julita; Sieńska, Justyna; Szymański, Daniel; Kruk, Marek; Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona; Jasser, Iwona; Žutinić, Petar; Gligora Udovič, Marija; Plenković-Moraj, Anđelka; Frąk, Magdalena; Bańkowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka; Wasilewicz, Michał; Özkan, Korhan; Maliaka, Valentini; Kangro, Kersti; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Paerl, Hans W.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Ibelings, Bas W.

    2018-01-01

    Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and

  10. Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

    OpenAIRE

    Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma

    2018-01-01

    Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and li...

  11. Temperature effects explain continental scale distribution of cyanobacterial toxins

    OpenAIRE

    Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma

    2018-01-01

    Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and li...

  12. Explaining the inefficiency of electrical distribution companies. Peruvian firms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Reyes, Raul [Organismo Supervisor de la Inversion en Energia y Mineria, OSINERGMIN (Peru); Tovar, Beatriz [Infrastructure and Transport Research Group (EIT), Department of Applied Economics, University of Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2010-09-15

    This paper investigates the extent to which the structural reform of the Peruvian electricity market, implemented in the 1990s, has improved the efficiency of the distribution companies; and it evaluates the influence on efficiency of firm specific explanatory variables. To do this, we rely on data from 14 distribution companies between 1996 and 2006. The results indicate that the incentives generated by the reform process led to the firms becoming more efficient. Moreover, the time trend and private management of the distribution companies are variables that positively affect the levels of efficiency, whereas the lower network densities are then the greater the inefficiency. (author)

  13. Explaining the inefficiency of electrical distribution companies. Peruvian firms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Reyes, Raul; Tovar, Beatriz

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the extent to which the structural reform of the Peruvian electricity market, implemented in the 1990s, has improved the efficiency of the distribution companies; and it evaluates the influence on efficiency of firm specific explanatory variables. To do this, we rely on data from 14 distribution companies between 1996 and 2006. The results indicate that the incentives generated by the reform process led to the firms becoming more efficient. Moreover, the time trend and private management of the distribution companies are variables that positively affect the levels of efficiency, whereas the lower network densities are then the greater the inefficiency. (author)

  14. Distributed Cognition in Sports Teams: Explaining Successful and Expert Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Kellie; Cox, Rochelle

    2014-01-01

    In this article we use a hybrid methodology to better understand the skilful performance of sports teams as an exemplar of distributed cognition. We highlight key differences between a team of individual experts (an aggregate system) and an expert team (an emergent system), and outline the kinds of shared characteristics likely to be found in an…

  15. Coulomb Mechanics And Landscape Geometry Explain Landslide Size Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeandet, L.; Steer, P.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally observed that the dimensions of large bedrock landslides follow power-law scaling relationships. In particular, the non-cumulative frequency distribution (PDF) of bedrock landslide area is well characterized by a negative power-law above a critical size, with an exponent 2.4. However, the respective role of bedrock mechanical properties, landscape shape and triggering mechanisms on the scaling properties of landslide dimensions are still poorly understood. Yet, unravelling the factors that control this distribution is required to better estimate the total volume of landslides triggered by large earthquakes or storms. To tackle this issue, we develop a simple probabilistic 1D approach to compute the PDF of rupture depths in a given landscape. The model is applied to randomly sampled points along hillslopes of studied digital elevation models. At each point location, the model determines the range of depth and angle leading to unstable rupture planes, by applying a simple Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion only to the rupture planes that intersect downhill surface topography. This model therefore accounts for both rock mechanical properties, friction and cohesion, and landscape shape. We show that this model leads to realistic landslide depth distribution, with a power-law arising when the number of samples is high enough. The modeled PDF of landslide size obtained for several landscapes match the ones from earthquakes-driven landslides catalogues for the same landscape. In turn, this allows us to invert landslide effective mechanical parameters, friction and cohesion, associated to those specific events, including Chi-Chi, Wenchuan, Niigata and Gorkha earthquakes. The cohesion and friction ranges (25-35 degrees and 5-20 kPa) are in good agreement with previously inverted values. Our results demonstrate that reduced complexity mechanics is efficient to model the distribution of unstable depths, and show the role of landscape variability in landslide size

  16. Distribution of Cenozoic plant relicts in China explained by drought in dry season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yongjiang; Jacques, Frédéric M B; Su, Tao; Ferguson, David K; Tang, Hui; Chen, Wenyun; Zhou, Zhekun

    2015-09-15

    Cenozoic plant relicts are those groups that were once widespread in the Northern Hemisphere but are now restricted to some small isolated areas as a result of drastic climatic changes. They are good proxies to study how plants respond to climatic changes since their modern climatic requirements are known. Herein we look at the modern distribution of 65 palaeoendemic genera in China and compare it with the Chinese climatic pattern, in order to find a link between the plant distribution and climate. Central China and Taiwan Island are shown to be diversity centres of Cenozoic relict genera, consistent with the fact that these two regions have a shorter dry season with comparatively humid autumn and spring in China. Species distribution models indicate that the precipitation parameters are the most important variables to explain the distribution of relict genera. The Cenozoic wide-scale distribution of relict plants in the Northern Hemisphere is therefore considered to be linked to the widespread humid climate at that time, and the subsequent contraction of their distributional ranges was probably caused by the drying trend along with global cooling.

  17. Agricultural management explains historic changes in regional soil carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wesemael, Bas; Paustian, Keith; Meersmans, Jeroen; Goidts, Esther; Barancikova, Gabriela; Easter, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks. PMID:20679194

  18. Explaining international co-authorship in global environmental change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jappe, A.

    2006-04-15

    This paper maps the domain of earth and environmental sciences (EES) and investigates the relationship between cognitive problem structures and internationalisation patterns, drawing on the concepts of systemic versus cumulative global environmental change (GEC) and mutual task dependence in scientific fields. We find that scientific output concentration and internationalisation are significantly higher in the systemic GEC fields of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography than in the cumulative GEC fields Ecology and Water Resources. The relationship is explained by stronger mutual task dependence in systemic GEC fields. In contrast, the portion of co-authorships with developing, emerging and transition countries among all international publications is larger for Water Resources than for the three other fields, consistent with the most pressing needs for STI capacity development in these countries. (orig.)

  19. Explaining drug policy: Towards an historical sociology of policy change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddon, Toby

    2011-11-01

    The goal of seeking to understand the development over time of drug policies is a specific version of the more general intellectual project of finding ways of explaining social change. The latter has been a preoccupation of some of the greatest thinkers within the social sciences of the last 200 years, from Foucault all the way back to the three nineteenth-century pioneers, Marx, Durkheim and Weber. I describe this body of work as 'historical sociology'. In this paper, I outline how a particular approach to historical sociology can be fruitfully drawn upon to understand the development of drug policy, using by way of illustration the example of the analysis of a recent transformation in British drug policy: the rise of the criminal justice agenda. I conclude by arguing that by looking at developments in drug policy in this way, some new insights are opened up. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

    2014-05-01

    The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

  1. Can Knowledge Deficit Explain Societal Perception of Climate Change Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, R.; McNeal, K.; Bondell, H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change literacy efforts have had a rough journey in the past decade. Although scientists have become increasingly convinced about anthropological climate change, change in public opinion has been underwhelming. The unexplained gap between scientific consensus and public opinion has made this topic an important research area in the realm of public understanding of science. Recent research on climate change risk perception (CCRP) has advanced an intriguing hypothesis, namely, cultural cognition thesis (CCT), which posits that the public has adequate knowledge to understand climate change science but people tend to use this knowledge solely to promote their culturally motivated view-point of climate change. This talk provides evidence to demonstrate that despite culture playing a significant role in influencing CCRP, knowledge deficiency remains a persistent problem in our society and contributes to the aforementioned gap. However, such deficits can remain undiagnosed due to limitations of survey design.

  2. Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanton, J.

    2011-12-01

    One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.

  3. Climate and soil type together explain the distribution of microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Nattier

    Full Text Available The grasshopper genus Caledonula, endemic to New Caledonia, was studied to understand the evolution of species distributions in relation to climate and soil types. Based on a comprehensive sampling of 80 locations throughout the island, the genus was represented by five species, four of which are new to science, of which three are described here. All the species have limited distributions in New Caledonia. Bioclimatic niche modelling shows that all the species were found in association with a wet climate and reduced seasonality, explaining their restriction to the southern half of the island. The results suggest that the genus was ancestrally constrained by seasonality. A molecular phylogeny was reconstructed using two mitochondrial and two nuclear markers. The partially resolved tree showed monophyly of the species found on metalliferous soils, and molecular dating indicated a rather recent origin for the genus. Adaptation to metalliferous soils is suggested by both morphological changes and radiation on these soils. The genus Caledonula is therefore a good model to understand the origin of microendemism in the context of recent and mixed influences of climate and soil type.

  4. Climate and soil type together explain the distribution of microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nattier, Romain; Grandcolas, Philippe; Pellens, Roseli; Jourdan, Hervé; Couloux, Arnaud; Poulain, Simon; Robillard, Tony

    2013-01-01

    The grasshopper genus Caledonula, endemic to New Caledonia, was studied to understand the evolution of species distributions in relation to climate and soil types. Based on a comprehensive sampling of 80 locations throughout the island, the genus was represented by five species, four of which are new to science, of which three are described here. All the species have limited distributions in New Caledonia. Bioclimatic niche modelling shows that all the species were found in association with a wet climate and reduced seasonality, explaining their restriction to the southern half of the island. The results suggest that the genus was ancestrally constrained by seasonality. A molecular phylogeny was reconstructed using two mitochondrial and two nuclear markers. The partially resolved tree showed monophyly of the species found on metalliferous soils, and molecular dating indicated a rather recent origin for the genus. Adaptation to metalliferous soils is suggested by both morphological changes and radiation on these soils. The genus Caledonula is therefore a good model to understand the origin of microendemism in the context of recent and mixed influences of climate and soil type.

  5. Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Nogués-Bravo, David; Diniz-Filho, Alexandre F.

    2008-01-01

    debated without reaching consensus. Here, we test the proposition that European species richness of reptiles and amphibians is driven by climate changes in the Quaternary. We find that climate stability between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present day is a better predictor of species richness...

  6. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-04-19

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004)Am Antiq69:197-214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009)Science324(5932):1298-1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record.

  7. Simulating the Cinema Market : How cross-cultural differences in social influence explain box office distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhuizen, T.L.J.; Delre, S.A.; Torres, A.

    This paper uses a mixed method approach to show how cross-cultural differences in social influences can explain differences in distributions of market shares in different markets. First, we develop a realistic agent-based model that mimics the behavior of movie visitors and incorporates the social

  8. A Typology to Explain Changing Social Networks Post Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northcott, Sarah; Hirani, Shashivadan P; Hilari, Katerina

    2018-05-08

    Social network typologies have been used to classify the general population but have not previously been applied to the stroke population. This study investigated whether social network types remain stable following a stroke, and if not, why some people shift network type. We used a mixed methods design. Participants were recruited from two acute stroke units. They completed the Stroke Social Network Scale (SSNS) two weeks and six months post stroke and in-depth interviews 8-15 months following the stroke. Qualitative data was analysed using Framework Analysis; k-means cluster analysis was applied to the six-month data set. Eighty-seven participants were recruited, 71 were followed up at six months, and 29 completed in-depth interviews. It was possible to classify all 29 participants into one of the following network types both prestroke and post stroke: diverse; friends-based; family-based; restricted-supported; restricted-unsupported. The main shift that took place post stroke was participants moving out of a diverse network into a family-based one. The friends-based network type was relatively stable. Two network types became more populated post stroke: restricted-unsupported and family-based. Triangulatory evidence was provided by k-means cluster analysis, which produced a cluster solution (for n = 71) with comparable characteristics to the network types derived from qualitative analysis. Following a stroke, a person's social network is vulnerable to change. Explanatory factors for shifting network type included the physical and also psychological impact of having a stroke, as well as the tendency to lose contact with friends rather than family.

  9. Possibility to explain the temperature distribution in sunspots by an anisotropic heat transfer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eschrich, K O; Krause, F [Akademie der Wissenschaften der DDR, Potsdam. Zentralinstitut fuer Astrophysik

    1977-01-01

    Numerical solutions of a heat conduction problem in an anisotropic medium are used for a discussion of the possibility to explain the temperature distribution in sunspots and their environment. The anisotropy is assumed being due to the strong magnetic field in sunspots and the region below. This magnetic field forces the convection to take an anisotropic structure (two-dimensional turbulence) and thus the region gets anisotropic conduction properties, on the average. The discussion shows that the observed temperature profiles can be explained in the case the depth of the region of anisotropy is about as large as the diameter of the spot or larger.

  10. Explaining the power-law distribution of human mobility through transportation modality decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Kai; Musolesi, Mirco; Hui, Pan; Rao, Weixiong; Tarkoma, Sasu

    2015-03-01

    Human mobility has been empirically observed to exhibit Lévy flight characteristics and behaviour with power-law distributed jump size. The fundamental mechanisms behind this behaviour has not yet been fully explained. In this paper, we propose to explain the Lévy walk behaviour observed in human mobility patterns by decomposing them into different classes according to the different transportation modes, such as Walk/Run, Bike, Train/Subway or Car/Taxi/Bus. Our analysis is based on two real-life GPS datasets containing approximately 10 and 20 million GPS samples with transportation mode information. We show that human mobility can be modelled as a mixture of different transportation modes, and that these single movement patterns can be approximated by a lognormal distribution rather than a power-law distribution. Then, we demonstrate that the mixture of the decomposed lognormal flight distributions associated with each modality is a power-law distribution, providing an explanation to the emergence of Lévy Walk patterns that characterize human mobility patterns.

  11. Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Savopoulos, Christos; Zannis, Prodromos; Apostolopoulou, Martha; Fountoukidis, Ilias; Kakaletsis, Nikolaos; Kanellos, Ilias; Dimellis, Dimos; Hyphantis, Thomas; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Pompili, Maurizio; Hatzitolios, Apostolos I

    2016-03-15

    Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12. The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%) Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Explaining the differential distribution of Clean Development Mechanism projects across host countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkelman, Andrew G.; Moore, Michael R.

    2011-01-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol represents an opportunity to involve all developing countries in the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also promoting sustainable development. To date, however, the majority of CDM projects have gone to emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, and Mexico, while very few least developed countries have hosted projects. This paper investigates the differential distribution of CDM activities across countries. We develop a conceptual model for project profitability, which helps to identify potential country-level determinants of CDM activity. These potential determinants are employed as explanatory variables in regression analysis to explain the actual distribution of projects. Human capital and greenhouse gas emission levels influenced which countries have hosted projects and the amount of certified emission reductions (CER) created. Countries that offered growing markets for CDM co-products, such as electricity, were more likely to be CDM hosts, while economies with higher carbon intensity levels had greater CER production. These findings work against the least developed countries and help to explain their lack of CDM activity. - Research Highlights: → Regression models are used to explain the inter-country distribution of CDM projects. → Emissions and human capital are significant for hosting projects and CER creation. → An economy's emissions intensity is significant in determining CERs created. → Capacity building and electricity sector growth are significant in hosting projects. → The experience level for host countries in the CDM is significant for CER creation.

  13. Inactivity periods and postural change speed can explain atypical postural change patterns of Caenorhabditis elegans mutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Tsukasa; Iwasaki, Wataru

    2017-01-19

    With rapid advances in genome sequencing and editing technologies, systematic and quantitative analysis of animal behavior is expected to be another key to facilitating data-driven behavioral genetics. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a model organism in this field. Several video-tracking systems are available for automatically recording behavioral data for the nematode, but computational methods for analyzing these data are still under development. In this study, we applied the Gaussian mixture model-based binning method to time-series postural data for 322 C. elegans strains. We revealed that the occurrence patterns of the postural states and the transition patterns among these states have a relationship as expected, and such a relationship must be taken into account to identify strains with atypical behaviors that are different from those of wild type. Based on this observation, we identified several strains that exhibit atypical transition patterns that cannot be fully explained by their occurrence patterns of postural states. Surprisingly, we found that two simple factors-overall acceleration of postural movement and elimination of inactivity periods-explained the behavioral characteristics of strains with very atypical transition patterns; therefore, computational analysis of animal behavior must be accompanied by evaluation of the effects of these simple factors. Finally, we found that the npr-1 and npr-3 mutants have similar behavioral patterns that were not predictable by sequence homology, proving that our data-driven approach can reveal the functions of genes that have not yet been characterized. We propose that elimination of inactivity periods and overall acceleration of postural change speed can explain behavioral phenotypes of strains with very atypical postural transition patterns. Our methods and results constitute guidelines for effectively finding strains that show "truly" interesting behaviors and systematically uncovering novel gene

  14. A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Kling, Ryan

    2014-12-01

    For the past several decades, the U.S. prison system has witnessed a steady and persistent increase in the ages of prison populations. Given the additional costs and burdens placed on prisons as they house older inmates, this aging trend has generated intense interest among policy makers and academics who seek to understand why prison populations are getting older. This article presents a method for evaluating drivers influencing the change in age distributions among prisoners. We define a methodological approach and demonstrate its application using prison data from four states reporting to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Corrections Reporting Program. We find that since 2000, the primary driver of overall growth in the elderly populations in prison (defined as inmates over 50) is the increasing admission age of offenders entering prison. Moreover, changes in offense mix and sentence length/time served over the last decade have had significantly less influence on the age composition of prison populations. We also find that the impact of explanatory factors varies across states and offense types. For example, prison admission and exit rates explain much of the change in elderly drug offenders in New York, but not elderly violent offenders, where admission age plays a much stronger explanatory role. Our analysis offers an effective demonstration that supports the use of this method as an important and informative first step toward understanding components of change that affect the problem of prison aging. © The Author(s) 2014.

  15. Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Kissling, W.D.; Carvalheiro, L.G.; WallisDeVries, M.F.; Franzén, M.; Biesmeijer, J.C.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species’ functional traits that

  16. Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Kissling, W.D.; Carvalheiro, Luísa G.; WallisDevries, Michiel F.; Franzén, Markus; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species' functional traits

  17. Biological traits explain the distribution and colonisation ability of the invasive shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothland, M.; Dauvin, J. C.; Denis, L.; Dufossé, F.; Jobert, S.; Ovaert, J.; Pezy, J. P.; Tous Rius, A.; Spilmont, N.

    2014-04-01

    Comprehending marine invasions requires a better knowledge of the biological traits of invasive species, and the future spread of invasive species may be predicted through comprehensive overviews of their distribution. This study thus presents the current distribution of a non-indigenous species, the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi, as well as the species population characteristics (size distribution and cohorts), based on a five-year survey (2008-2012) along the French coast of the English Channel. Two large populations were found near harbours: one on the Opal Coast (where density reached 61 ± 22 ind.m-2, mean ± s.d., in Dunkirk harbour) and one on the Calvados coast (density up to 26 ± 6 ind.m-2, mean ± s.d, in Honfleur harbour). H. takanoi exhibited a short life cycle, a rapid growth, an early sexual maturity and a high adult mortality. These features, combined with previously described high fecundity and high dispersal ability, endow this species with an 'r-selected strategy'. This strategy, which usually characterises species with a high colonisation ability, would explain the success of H. takanoi for colonising the French coast of the Channel. However, the species was found only in harbours and their vicinity; H. takanoi thus exhibited a discontinuous distribution along the 700 km of coastline. These results are discussed regarding sediment preference and potential introduction vectors. Hemigrapsus takanoi is now considered as established on the French coast and further studies are needed to evaluate the consequences of its introduction on the structure and functioning of the impacted shores.

  18. Cognitive Abilities Explaining Age-Related Changes in Time Perception of Short and Long Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelanti, Pierre S.; Droit-Volet, Sylvie

    2011-01-01

    The current study investigated how the development of cognitive abilities explains the age-related changes in temporal judgment over short and long duration ranges from 0.5 to 30 s. Children (5- and 9-year-olds) as well as adults were given a temporal bisection task with four different duration ranges: a duration range shorter than 1 s, two…

  19. Microhabitat and Climatic Niche Change Explain Patterns of Diversification among Frog Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

    2017-07-01

    A major goal of ecology and evolutionary biology is to explain patterns of species richness among clades. Differences in rates of net diversification (speciation minus extinction over time) may often explain these patterns, but the factors that drive variation in diversification rates remain uncertain. Three important candidates are climatic niche position (e.g., whether clades are primarily temperate or tropical), rates of climatic niche change among species within clades, and microhabitat (e.g., aquatic, terrestrial, arboreal). The first two factors have been tested separately in several studies, but the relative importance of all three is largely unknown. Here we explore the correlates of diversification among families of frogs, which collectively represent ∼88% of amphibian species. We assemble and analyze data on phylogeny, climate, and microhabitat for thousands of species. We find that the best-fitting phylogenetic multiple regression model includes all three types of variables: microhabitat, rates of climatic niche change, and climatic niche position. This model explains 67% of the variation in diversification rates among frog families, with arboreal microhabitat explaining ∼31%, niche rates ∼25%, and climatic niche position ∼11%. Surprisingly, we show that microhabitat can have a much stronger influence on diversification than climatic niche position or rates of climatic niche change.

  20. Explaining life history variation in a changing climate across a species' range

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neuheimer, Anna B.; MacKenzie, Brian R.

    2014-01-01

    Timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting population production. Explaining and predicting species' dynamics necessitates disentangling the intrinsic (genotypic) and extrinsic (climatic) factors controlling reproductive timing. Here we explore temporal and spatial...... changes in spawning time for 21 populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species' range (40 degrees to 80 degrees N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree-days, DD). First, we estimate spawning DD among...... years (within populations) to show how recent changes in spawning time can be explained by local changes in temperature. Second, we employ spawning DD to identify temperature-independent trends in spawning time among populations that are consistent with parallel adaptive evolution and the evolutionary...

  1. Morphological change to birds over 120 years is not explained by thermal adaptation to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Salewski

    Full Text Available Changes in morphology have been postulated as one of the responses of animals to global warming, with increasing ambient temperatures leading to decreasing body size. However, the results of previous studies are inconsistent. Problems related to the analyses of trends in body size may be related to the short-term nature of data sets, to the selection of surrogates for body size, to the appropriate models for data analyses, and to the interpretation as morphology may change in response to ecological drivers other than climate and irrespective of size. Using generalized additive models, we analysed trends in three morphological traits of 4529 specimens of eleven bird species collected between 1889 and 2010 in southern Germany and adjacent areas. Changes and trends in morphology over time were not consistent when all species and traits were considered. Six of the eleven species displayed a significant association of tarsus length with time but the direction of the association varied. Wing length decreased in the majority of species but there were few significant trends in wing pointedness. Few of the traits were significantly associated with mean ambient temperatures. We argue that although there are significant changes in morphology over time there is no consistent trend for decreasing body size and therefore no support for the hypothesis of decreasing body size because of climate change. Non-consistent trends of change in surrogates for size within species indicate that fluctuations are influenced by factors other than temperature, and that not all surrogates may represent size appropriately. Future analyses should carefully select measures of body size and consider alternative hypotheses for change.

  2. Could refuge theory and rivers acting as barriers explain the genetic variability distribution in the Atlantic Forest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazé, Ana Luiza R; Mäder, Geraldo; Nunes, Teonildes S; Queiroz, Luciano P; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F; Bonatto, Sandro L; Freitas, Loreta B

    2016-08-01

    The Atlantic Forest is one of the most species-rich ecoregions in the world. The historical origins of this richness and the evolutionary processes that produced diversification and promoted speciation in this ecosystem remain poorly understood. In this context, focusing on Passiflora contracta, an endemic species from the Atlantic Forest distributed exclusively at sea level along forest edges, this study aimed to characterize the patterns of genetic variability and explore two hypotheses that attempt to explain the possible causes of the genetic diversity in this region: the refuge and riverine barrier theories. We employed Bayesian methods combined with niche modeling to identify genetically homogeneous groups, to determine the diversification age, and identify long-term climate stability areas to species survival. The analyses were performed using molecular markers from nuclear and plastid genomes, with samples collected throughout the entire geographic distribution of the species, and comparisons with congeners species. The results indicated that populations were genetically structured and provided evidence of demographic stability. The molecular markers indicated the existence of a clear structure and the presence of five homogeneous groups. Interestingly, the separation of the groups coincides with the geographical locations of local rivers, corroborating the hypothesis of rivers acting as barriers to gene flow in this species. The highest levels of genetic diversity and the areas identified as having long-term climate stability were found in the same region reported for other species as a possible refuge area during the climatic changes of the Quaternary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Size Evolution and Stochastic Models: Explaining Ostracod Size through Probabilistic Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, M.; Decker, S.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

    2014-12-01

    The biovolume of animals has functioned as an important benchmark for measuring evolution throughout geologic time. In our project, we examined the observed average body size of ostracods over time in order to understand the mechanism of size evolution in these marine organisms. The body size of ostracods has varied since the beginning of the Ordovician, where the first true ostracods appeared. We created a stochastic branching model to create possible evolutionary trees of ostracod size. Using stratigraphic ranges for ostracods compiled from over 750 genera in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology, we calculated overall speciation and extinction rates for our model. At each timestep in our model, new lineages can evolve or existing lineages can become extinct. Newly evolved lineages are assigned sizes based on their parent genera. We parameterized our model to generate neutral and directional changes in ostracod size to compare with the observed data. New sizes were chosen via a normal distribution, and the neutral model selected new sizes differentials centered on zero, allowing for an equal chance of larger or smaller ostracods at each speciation. Conversely, the directional model centered the distribution on a negative value, giving a larger chance of smaller ostracods. Our data strongly suggests that the overall direction of ostracod evolution has been following a model that directionally pushes mean ostracod size down, shying away from a neutral model. Our model was able to match the magnitude of size decrease. Our models had a constant linear decrease while the actual data had a much more rapid initial rate followed by a constant size. The nuance of the observed trends ultimately suggests a more complex method of size evolution. In conclusion, probabilistic methods can provide valuable insight into possible evolutionary mechanisms determining size evolution in ostracods.

  4. Explaining pathological changes in axonal excitability through dynamical analysis of conductance-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coggan, Jay S.; Ocker, Gabriel K.; Sejnowski, Terrence J.; Prescott, Steven A.

    2011-10-01

    Neurons rely on action potentials, or spikes, to relay information. Pathological changes in spike generation likely contribute to certain enigmatic features of neurological disease, like paroxysmal attacks of pain and muscle spasm. Paroxysmal symptoms are characterized by abrupt onset and short duration, and are associated with abnormal spiking although the exact pathophysiology remains unclear. To help decipher the biophysical basis for 'paroxysmal' spiking, we replicated afterdischarge (i.e. continued spiking after a brief stimulus) in a minimal conductance-based axon model. We then applied nonlinear dynamical analysis to explain the dynamical basis for initiation and termination of afterdischarge. A perturbation could abruptly switch the system between two (quasi-)stable attractor states: rest and repetitive spiking. This bistability was a consequence of slow positive feedback mediated by persistent inward current. Initiation of afterdischarge was explained by activation of the persistent inward current forcing the system to cross a saddle point that separates the basins of attraction associated with each attractor. Termination of afterdischarge was explained by the attractor associated with repetitive spiking being destroyed. This occurred when ultra-slow negative feedback, such as intracellular sodium accumulation, caused the saddle point and stable limit cycle to collide; in that regard, the active attractor is not truly stable when the slowest dynamics are taken into account. The model also explains other features of paroxysmal symptoms, including temporal summation and refractoriness.

  5. Explaining the food safety behaviours of food handlers using theories of behaviour change: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Ian; Thaivalappil, Abhinand; Greig, Judy; Meldrum, Richard; Waddell, Lisa

    2018-06-01

    Theories of behaviour change can explain the factors affecting food handlers' use of food safety practices. A systematic review was conducted on this topic to identify which theories have been applied in this area and to determine which theories are the most consistent predictors of food handlers' behaviours. Standard systematic review procedures were followed: comprehensive search strategy; relevance screening of abstracts; article characterization; data extraction; risk-of-bias assessment; and descriptive analysis. Among 19 relevant studies, the most commonly investigated theories were the Theory of Planned Behaviour (n = 9 studies) and Health Belief Model (n = 5). All investigated theories were useful to explain food handlers' behavioural intentions and behaviours related to food safety across different settings, and could serve as useful frameworks for future research and practice. However, there was wide variability in the predictive ability of the theories and their specific constructs, indicating theories should be adapted to the local context of application.

  6. Explaining Consumer Safe Food Handling Through Behavior-Change Theories: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Ian; Reimer, Danielle; Greig, Judy; Meldrum, Richard; Turgeon, Patricia; Waddell, Lisa

    2017-11-01

    Consumers often engage in unsafe food handling behaviors at home. Previous studies have investigated the ability of behavior-change theories to explain and predict these behaviors. The purpose of this review was to determine which theories are most consistently associated with consumers' safe food handling behaviors across the published literature. A standardized systematic review methodology was used, consisting of the following steps: comprehensive search strategy; relevance screening of identified references; confirmation of relevance and characterization of relevant articles; risk-of-bias assessment; data extraction; and descriptive analysis of study results. A total of 20 relevant studies were identified; they were mostly conducted in Australia (40%) and the United States (35%) and used a cross-sectional design (65%). Most studies targeted young adults (65%), and none focused on high-risk consumer groups. The outcomes of 70% of studies received high overall risk-of-bias ratings, largely due to a lack of control for confounding variables. The most commonly applied theory was the Theory of Planned Behavior (45% of studies), which, along with other investigated theories of behavior change, was frequently associated with consumer safe food handling behavioral intentions and behaviors. However, overall, there was wide variation in the specific constructs found to be significantly associated and in the percentage of variance explained in each outcome across studies. The results suggest that multiple theories of behavior change can help to explain consumer safe food handling behaviors and could be adopted to guide the development of future behavior-change interventions. In these contexts, theories should be appropriately selected and adapted to meet the needs of the specific target population and context of interest.

  7. Community-level plant-soil feedbacks explain landscape distribution of native and non-native plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulmatiski, Andrew

    2018-02-01

    Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) have gained attention for their potential role in explaining plant growth and invasion. While promising, most PSF research has measured plant monoculture growth on different soils in short-term, greenhouse experiments. Here, five soil types were conditioned by growing one native species, three non-native species, or a mixed plant community in different plots in a common-garden experiment. After 4 years, plants were removed and one native and one non-native plant community were planted into replicate plots of each soil type. After three additional years, the percentage cover of each of the three target species in each community was measured. These data were used to parameterize a plant community growth model. Model predictions were compared to native and non-native abundance on the landscape. Native community cover was lowest on soil conditioned by the dominant non-native, Centaurea diffusa , and non-native community cover was lowest on soil cultivated by the dominant native, Pseudoroegneria spicata . Consistent with plant growth on the landscape, the plant growth model predicted that the positive PSFs observed in the common-garden experiment would result in two distinct communities on the landscape: a native plant community on native soils and a non-native plant community on non-native soils. In contrast, when PSF effects were removed, the model predicted that non-native plants would dominate all soils, which was not consistent with plant growth on the landscape. Results provide an example where PSF effects were large enough to change the rank-order abundance of native and non-native plant communities and to explain plant distributions on the landscape. The positive PSFs that contributed to this effect reflected the ability of the two dominant plant species to suppress each other's growth. Results suggest that plant dominance, at least in this system, reflects the ability of a species to suppress the growth of dominant competitors

  8. Are low Danish fertility rates explained by changes in timing of births?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A; Gerster, Mette; Knudsen, Lisbeth B

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: The most commonly used indicator of fertility, the period total fertility rate (TFR(p)), tends to underestimate actual fertility when women delay childbearing. The objective of this study was to examine to which extent fluctuations in Danish fertility rates result from changes in timing...... from the Danish Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset, 1980-2001. We evaluated fluctuations in period fertility rates by the tempo-adjusted TFR(') - a proposed variant of the conventional TFR(p) taking period changes in timing of births into account. Tempo-effects were given by the difference between...... of births and, thus, whether the conventional TFR(p) is a distorted indicator of fertility quantum. In addition, we investigated whether such changes in timing explained the observed regional differences in the TFR(p) in Denmark. METHODS: The study applied age-, period-, county-, and parity-specific data...

  9. Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tvinnereim, Endre; Fløttum, Kjersti

    2015-08-01

    Citizens’ opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question `what comes to mind when you hear the words `climate change’?’. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence.

  10. Distributed generation solutions: changes and opportunities for distribution companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuddy, B.

    2004-01-01

    'Full text:' The rapid expansion of hydrogen based power alternatives and other significant distributed generation (DG) alternatives is changing the traditional role of the local electricity distributor. This presentation is about opportunities related to incorporating such facilities into LDC and client distribution systems. This ranges from support of large co-generation facilities, such as that under development at Mississauga's Pearson International, to the integration of output from varied new forms small-scale, wind, biomass, and fuel cell power production within local distribution networks. Mr. Chuddy will examine Enersource's present and anticipated role: (1) as a technologies company aiding in developing distribution systems that integrate and fully utilize DG technology into those models and; (2) as an LDC that continues to lead the conservation movement on several fronts, including advocacy of aggregated demand response mechanisms in Ontario's wholesale market design. (author)

  11. Public concern for air quality: explaining change in Toronto, Canada, 1967-1978

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dworkin, J M [Univ of Arizona, Tucson; Pijawka, K D

    1982-01-01

    The paper presents the results of an empirical study of the change in perception of air quality in Toronto, Canada from 1968-1978. The data show a shift in public concern with and awareness of air quality. Despite the fact that the 1978 population regarded air quality as degraded, air pollution declined as a public concern, requiring a less serious response by government than other societal problems. The results of the study were reviewed in the context of existing perception studies. In explaining change, the study found: (1) perception of ambient air quality was not related to air pollution levels; (2) air pollution declines as a public concern as other socioeconomic problems surface; and (3) the mass media has an important role in affecting public attitudes and behavior over environmental quality issues.

  12. Plant-induced changes in soil chemistry do not explain differences in uranium transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duquene, L.; Vandenhove, H.; Tack, F.; Avoort, E. van der; Hees, M. van; Wannijn, J.

    2006-01-01

    A greenhouse experiment was set up with maize, ryegrass, Indian mustard, wheat and pea to evaluate to what extent differences in uranium (U) transfer factors can be explained by root-mediated changes in selected soil properties. The experiment involved an acid and an alkaline soil contaminated with 238 U. U soil-to-shoot transfer factors (TFs) ranged between 0.0005 and 0.021 on the acid soil and between 0.007 and 0.179 on the alkaline soil. Indian mustard showed the highest U uptake in shoots and maize the lowest. The root TFs, only available for the acid soil, ranged from 0.58 for maize and Indian mustard to 1.38 for ryegrass. The difference in U uptake between the two soils and the five plants was only partially explained by the different initial U concentrations in soil solution or differences in soil properties in the two soils. However, we obtained a significant relation for differences in shoot TFs observed between the two soils when relating shoot TFs with concentration of UO 2 2+ and uranyl carbonate complexes in soil solution (R 2 = 0.88). The physiological mechanisms by which root-to-shoot U transfer is inhibited or promoted seemed at least as important as the plant-induced changes in soil characteristics in determining soil-to-shoot TFs

  13. [Does co-operation research provide approaches to explain the changes in the German hospital market?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raible, C; Leidl, R

    2004-11-01

    The German hospital market faces an extensive process of consolidation. In this change hospitals consider cooperation as one possibility to improve competitiveness. To investigate explanations of changes in the German hospital market by theoretical approaches of cooperation research. The aims and mechanism of the theories, their relevance in terms of contents and their potential for empirical tests were used as criteria to assess the approaches, with current and future trends in the German hospital market providing the framework. Based on literature review, six theoretical approaches were investigated: industrial organization, transaction cost theory, game theory, resource dependency, institutional theory, and co-operative investment and finance theory. In addition, the data needed to empirically test the theories were specified. As a general problem, some of the theoretical approaches set a perfect market as a precondition. This precondition is not met by the heavily regulated German hospital market. Given the current regulations and the assessment criteria, industrial organization as well as resource-dependency and institutional theory approaches showed the highest potential to explain various aspects of the changes in the hospital market. So far, none of the approaches investigated provides a comprehensive and empirically tested explanation of the changes in the German hospital market. However, some of the approaches provide a theoretical background for part of the changes. As this dynamic market is economically of high significance, there is a need for further development and empirical testing of relevant theoretical approaches.

  14. Sixty-Five Million Years of Change in Temperature and Topography Explain Evolutionary History in Eastern North American Plethodontid Salamanders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Richard; Clark, Adam Thomas

    2017-07-01

    For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

  15. Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meier, Elaine S.; Kienast, Felix; Pearman, Peter B.

    2010-01-01

    Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic var...

  16. Trait modality distribution of aquatic macrofauna communities as explained by pesticides and water chemistry

    OpenAIRE

    Ieromina, O.; Musters, C. J. M.; Bodegom, P. M.; Peijnenburg, W. J. G. M.; Vijver, M. G.

    2016-01-01

    Analyzing functional species? characteristics (species traits) that represent physiological, life history and morphological characteristics of species help understanding the impacts of various stressors on aquatic communities at field conditions. This research aimed to study the combined effects of pesticides and other environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, floating macrophytes cover, phosphate, nitrite, and nitrate) on the trait modality distribution ...

  17. Changes in materials properties explain the effects of humidity on gecko adhesion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puthoff, Jonathan B; Prowse, Michael S; Wilkinson, Matt; Autumn, Kellar

    2010-11-01

    Geckos owe their remarkable stickiness to millions of dry setae on their toes, and the mechanism of adhesion in gecko setae has been the topic of scientific scrutiny for over two centuries. Previously, we demonstrated that van der Waals forces are sufficient for strong adhesion and friction in gecko setae, and that water-based capillary adhesion is not required. However, recent studies demonstrated that adhesion increases with relative humidity (RH) and proposed that surface hydration and capillary water bridge formation is important or even necessary. In this study, we confirmed a significant effect of RH on gecko adhesion, but rejected the capillary adhesion hypothesis. While contact forces of isolated tokay gecko setal arrays increased with humidity, the increase was similar on hydrophobic and hydrophilic surfaces, inconsistent with a capillary mechanism. Contact forces increased with RH even at high shear rates, where capillary bridge formation is too slow to affect adhesion. How then can a humidity-related increase in adhesion and friction be explained? The effect of RH on the mechanical properties of setal β-keratin has escaped consideration until now. We discovered that an increase in RH softens setae and increases viscoelastic damping, which increases adhesion. Changes in setal materials properties, not capillary forces, fully explain humidity-enhanced adhesion, and van der Waals forces remain the only empirically supported mechanism of adhesion in geckos.

  18. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  19. Explaining time changes in oral health-related quality of life in England: a decomposition analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsakos, Georgios; Guarnizo-Herreño, Carol C; O'Connor, Rhiannon; Wildman, John; Steele, Jimmy G; Allen, Patrick Finbarr

    2017-12-01

    Oral diseases are highly prevalent and impact on oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL). However, time changes in OHRQoL have been scarcely investigated in the current context of general improvement in clinical oral health. This study aims to examine changes in OHRQoL between 1998 and 2009 among adults in England, and to analyse the contribution of demographics, socioeconomic characteristics and clinical oral health measures. Using data from two nationally representative surveys in England, we assessed changes in the Oral Health Impact Profile-14 (OHIP-14), in both the sample overall (n=12 027) and by quasi-cohorts. We calculated the prevalence and extent of oral impacts and summary OHIP-14 scores. An Oaxaca-Blinder type decomposition analysis was used to assess the contribution of demographics (age, gender, marital status), socioeconomic position (education, occupation) and clinical measures (presence of decay, number of missing teeth, having advanced periodontitis). There were significant improvements in OHRQoL, predominantly among those that experienced oral impacts occasionally, but no difference in the proportion with frequent oral impacts. The decomposition model showed that 43% (-4.07/-9.47) of the decrease in prevalence of oral impacts reported occasionally or more often was accounted by the model explanatory variables. Improvements in clinical oral health and the effect of ageing itself accounted for most of the explained change in OHRQoL, but the effect of these factors varied substantially across the lifecourse and quasi-cohorts. These decomposition findings indicate that broader determinants could be primarily targeted to influence OHRQoL in different age groups or across different adult cohorts. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. Biophysical, infrastructural and social heterogeneities explain spatial distribution of waterborne gastrointestinal disease burden in Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Andrés; Estrada-Barón, Alejandra; Serrano-Candela, Fidel; Bojórquez, Luis A.; Eakin, Hallie; Escalante, Ana E.

    2018-06-01

    Due to unplanned growth, large extension and limited resources, most megacities in the developing world are vulnerable to hydrological hazards and infectious diseases caused by waterborne pathogens. Here we aim to elucidate the extent of the relation between the spatial heterogeneity of physical and socio-economic factors associated with hydrological hazards (flooding and scarcity) and the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal disease in Mexico City, a megacity with more than 8 million people. We applied spatial statistics and multivariate regression analyses to high resolution records of gastrointestinal diseases during two time frames (2007–2009 and 2010–2014). Results show a pattern of significant association between water flooding events and disease incidence in the city center (lowlands). We also found that in the periphery (highlands), higher incidence is generally associated with household infrastructure deficiency. Our findings suggest the need for integrated and spatially tailored interventions by public works and public health agencies, aimed to manage socio-hydrological vulnerability in Mexico City.

  1. Does weather explain cost and quality performance? An analysis of UK electricity distribution companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, William; Jamasb, Tooraj; Pollitt, Michael

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, a number of empirical studies and energy regulators have applied benchmarking techniques to measuring the efficiency and performance of network utilities. An important issue has been the extent to which the results are influenced by contextual factors. Among these, weather factors are frequently discussed as being important. We use factor analysis and two-stage data envelopment analysis techniques to examine the effect of a set of important weather factors (gale, hail, temperatures, rainfall and thunder) on the performance of electricity distribution networks in the UK. The results indicate that such factors often do not have a significant economic and statistical effect on the overall performance of the utilities. The weather parameters in some models are significant in terms of economic efficiency. The results echo our previous findings of the importance of extending the basic model to include other inputs such as total expenditure (Totex), customer minutes lost (CML) and network energy losses in regulatory benchmarking.

  2. Trait modality distribution of aquatic macrofauna communities as explained by pesticides and water chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ieromina, O; Musters, C J M; Bodegom, P M; Peijnenburg, W J G M; Vijver, M G

    2016-08-01

    Analyzing functional species' characteristics (species traits) that represent physiological, life history and morphological characteristics of species help understanding the impacts of various stressors on aquatic communities at field conditions. This research aimed to study the combined effects of pesticides and other environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, floating macrophytes cover, phosphate, nitrite, and nitrate) on the trait modality distribution of aquatic macrofauna communities. To this purpose, a field inventory was performed in a flower bulb growing area of the Netherlands with significant variation in pesticides pressures. Macrofauna community composition, water chemistry parameters and pesticide concentrations in ditches next to flower bulb fields were determined. Trait modalities of nine traits (feeding mode, respiration mode, locomotion type, resistance form, reproduction mode, life stage, voltinism, saprobity, maximum body size) likely to indicate pesticides impacts were analyzed. According to a redundancy analysis, phosphate -and not pesticides- constituted the main factor structuring the trait modality distribution of aquatic macrofauna. The functional composition could be ascribed for 2-4 % to pesticides, and for 3-11 % to phosphate. The lack of trait responses to pesticides may indicate that species may have used alternative strategies to adapt to ambient pesticides stress. Biomass of animals exhibiting trait modalities related to feeding by predation and grazing, presence of diapause form or dormancy, reproduction by free clutches and ovoviviparity, life stage of larvae and pupa, was negatively correlated to the concentration of phosphate. Hence, despite the high pesticide pollution in the area, variation in nutrient-related stressors seems to be the dominant driver of the functional composition of aquatic macrofauna assembly in agricultural ditches.

  3. Electronic Health Record (EHR) Organizational Change: Explaining Resistance Through Profession, Organizational Experience, and EHR Communication Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Ashley K

    2018-04-01

    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by the U.S. government in 2009 mandates that all healthcare organizations adopt a certified electronic health record (EHR) system by 2015. Failure to comply will result in Medicare reimbursement penalties, which steadily increase with each year of delinquency. There are several repercussions of this seemingly top-down, rule-bound organizational change-one of which is employee resistance. Given the penalties for violating EHR meaningful use standards are ongoing, resistance to this mandate presents a serious issue for healthcare organizations. This study surveyed 345 employees in one healthcare organization that recently implemented an EHR. Analysis of variance results offer theoretical and pragmatic contributions by demonstrating physicians, nurses, and employees with more experience in their organization are the most resistant to EHR change. The job characteristics model is used to explain these findings. Hierarchical regression analyses also demonstrate the quality of communication surrounding EHR implementation-from both formal and informal sources-is negatively associated with EHR resistance and positively associated with perceived EHR implementation success and EHR's perceived relative advantage.

  4. Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stainforth, David A; Chapman, Sandra C; Watkins, Nicholas W

    2013-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia. (letter)

  5. Predator-induced changes in metabolism cannot explain the growth/predation risk tradeoff.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich K Steiner

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Defence against predators is usually accompanied by declining rates of growth or development. The classical growth/predation risk tradeoff assumes reduced activity as the cause of these declines. However, in many cases these costs cannot be explained by reduced foraging effort or enhanced allocation to defensive structures under predation risk. Here, we tested for a physiological origin of defence costs by measuring oxygen consumption in tadpoles (Rana temporaria exposed to predation risk over short and long periods of time. The short term reaction was an increase in oxygen consumption, consistent with the "fight-or-flight" response observed in many organisms. The long term reaction showed the opposite pattern: tadpoles reduced oxygen consumption after three weeks exposure to predators, which would act to reduce the growth cost of predator defence. The results point to an instantaneous and reversible stress response to predation risk. This suggests that the tradeoff between avoiding predators and growing rapidly is not caused by changes in metabolic rate, and must be sought in other behavioural or physiological processes.

  6. Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

    2011-02-16

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

  7. Road user behaviour changes following a self-explaining roads intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackie, Hamish W; Charlton, Samuel G; Baas, Peter H; Villasenor, Pablo C

    2013-01-01

    The self-explaining roads (SER) approach uses road designs that evoke correct expectations and driving behaviours from road users to create a safe and user-friendly road network. Following the implementation of an SER process and retrofitting of local and collector roads in a suburb within Auckland City, lower speeds on local roads and less variation in speed on both local and collector roads were achieved, along with a closer match between actual and perceived safe speeds. Preliminary analyses of crash data shows that the project has resulted in a 30% reduction crash numbers and an 86% reduction in crash costs per annum, since the road changes were completed. In order to further understand the outcomes from this project, a study was carried out to measure the effects of the SER intervention on the activity and behaviour of all road users. Video was collected over nine separate days, at nine different locations, both before and after SER construction. Road user behaviour categories were developed for all potential road users at different location types and then used to code the video data. Following SER construction, on local roads there was a relatively higher proportion of pedestrians, less uniformity in vehicle lane keeping and less indicating by motorists along with less through traffic, reflecting a more informal/low speed local road environment. Pedestrians were less constrained on local roads following SER construction, possibly reflecting a perceptually safer and more user-friendly environment. These behaviours were not generally evident on collector roads, a trend also shown by the previous study of speed changes. Given that one of the objectives of SER is to match road user behaviour with functionally different road categories, the road user behaviour differences demonstrated on different road types within the SER trial area provides further reinforcement of a successful SER trial. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Differences in U root-to-shoot translocation between plant species explained by U distribution in roots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Straczek, Anne; Duquene, Lise [Belgium Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN), Biosphere Impact Studies, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Wegrzynek, Dariusz [IAEA, Seibersdorf Laboratories, A-2444 Seibersdorf (Austria); Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow (Poland); Chinea-Cano, Ernesto [IAEA, Seibersdorf Laboratories, A-2444 Seibersdorf (Austria); Wannijn, Jean [Belgium Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN), Biosphere Impact Studies, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Navez, Jacques [Royal Museum of Africa, Department of Geology, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren (Belgium); Vandenhove, Hildegarde, E-mail: hvandenh@sckcen.b [Belgium Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN), Biosphere Impact Studies, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium)

    2010-03-15

    Accumulation and distribution of uranium in roots and shoots of four plants species differing in their cation exchange capacity of roots (CECR) was investigated. After exposure in hydroponics for seven days to 100 mumol U L{sup -1}, distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots. Higher U concentrations were measured in roots of dicots which showed a higher CECR than monocot species. Chemical extractions indicated that uranium is mostly located in the apoplasm of roots of monocots but that it is predominantly located in the symplasm of roots of dicots. Translocation of U to shoot was not significantly affected by the CECR or distribution of U between symplasm and apoplasm. Distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots for all species. Additionally, longitudinal and radial distribution of U in roots of maize and Indian mustard, respectively showing the lowest and the highest translocation, was studied following X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis of specific root sections. Chemical analysis and XRF analysis of roots of maize and Indian mustard clearly indicated a higher longitudinal and radial transport of uranium in roots of Indian mustard than in roots of maize, where uranium mostly accumulated in root tips. These results showed that even if CECR could partly explain U accumulation in roots, other mechanisms like radial and longitudinal transport are implied in the translocation of U to the shoot.

  9. Differences in U root-to-shoot translocation between plant species explained by U distribution in roots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Straczek, Anne; Duquene, Lise; Wegrzynek, Dariusz; Chinea-Cano, Ernesto; Wannijn, Jean; Navez, Jacques; Vandenhove, Hildegarde

    2010-01-01

    Accumulation and distribution of uranium in roots and shoots of four plants species differing in their cation exchange capacity of roots (CECR) was investigated. After exposure in hydroponics for seven days to 100 μmol U L -1 , distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots. Higher U concentrations were measured in roots of dicots which showed a higher CECR than monocot species. Chemical extractions indicated that uranium is mostly located in the apoplasm of roots of monocots but that it is predominantly located in the symplasm of roots of dicots. Translocation of U to shoot was not significantly affected by the CECR or distribution of U between symplasm and apoplasm. Distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots for all species. Additionally, longitudinal and radial distribution of U in roots of maize and Indian mustard, respectively showing the lowest and the highest translocation, was studied following X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis of specific root sections. Chemical analysis and XRF analysis of roots of maize and Indian mustard clearly indicated a higher longitudinal and radial transport of uranium in roots of Indian mustard than in roots of maize, where uranium mostly accumulated in root tips. These results showed that even if CECR could partly explain U accumulation in roots, other mechanisms like radial and longitudinal transport are implied in the translocation of U to the shoot.

  10. Climate change effects on enchytraeid performance in metal-polluted soils explained from changes in metal bioavailability and bioaccumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Alcaraz, M Nazaret; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2015-10-01

    Climate change may alter physical, chemical and biological properties of ecosystems, affecting organisms but also the fate of chemical pollutants. This study aimed to find out how changes in climate conditions (air temperature, soil moisture content) affect the toxicity of metal-polluted soils to the soft-bodied soil organism Enchytraeus crypticus, linking enchytraeid performance with changes in soil available and body metal concentrations. Bioassays with E. crypticus were performed under different combinations of air temperature (20 and 25 °C) and soil moisture content (50% and 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC) in dilution series of three metal-polluted soils (mine tailing, forest and watercourse). After 21 d exposure, enchytraeid reproduction was determined, and soil available (extracted with 0.01 M CaCl2) and body Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations in surviving adults were determined. In general, Cd, Pb and Zn availability decreased upon incubation under the different climate scenarios. In the watercourse soil, with initially higher available metal concentrations (678 µg Cd kg(-1), 807 µg Pb kg(-1) and 31,020 µg Zn kg(-1)), decreases were greatest at 50% WHC probably due to metal immobilization as carbonates. Enchytraeid reproduction was negatively affected by higher available metal concentrations, with reductions up to 98% in the watercourse soil compared to the control soil at 30% WHC. Bioaccumulation of Cd, Pb and Zn was higher when drier conditions were combined with the higher temperature of 25 °C. Changes in metal bioavailability and bioaccumulation explained the toxicity of soil polluted by metal mine wastes to enchytraeids under changing environmental conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The power of hard-sphere models: explaining side-chain dihedral angle distributions of Thr and Val.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Alice Qinhua; O'Hern, Corey S; Regan, Lynne

    2012-05-16

    The energy functions used to predict protein structures typically include both molecular-mechanics and knowledge-based terms. In contrast, our approach is to develop robust physics- and geometry-based methods. Here, we investigate to what extent simple hard-sphere models can be used to predict side-chain conformations. The distributions of the side-chain dihedral angle χ(1) of Val and Thr in proteins of known structure show distinctive features: Val side chains predominantly adopt χ(1) = 180°, whereas Thr side chains typically adopt χ(1) = 60° and 300° (i.e., χ(1) = ±60° or g- and g(+) configurations). Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these differences, including interresidue steric clashes and hydrogen-bonding interactions. In contrast, we show that the observed side-chain dihedral angle distributions for both Val and Thr can be explained using only local steric interactions in a dipeptide mimetic. Our results emphasize the power of simple physical approaches and their importance for future advances in protein engineering and design. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brady J Mattsson

    Full Text Available Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

  13. Historical dynamics and current environmental effects explain the spatial distribution of species richness patterns of New World monkeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Vallejos-Garrido

    2017-09-01

    -fitting model that explains species richness. OLS and SAR models show that this set of variables explains 69.9% and 64.2% of species richness, respectively. Potential of evapotranspiration is the most important variable within this model, showing a linear positive relationship with species richness, and clear lower and upper limits to the species richness distribution. Discussion We suggest that New World monkeys historically migrated from their biodiversity hotspot (energetically optimal areas for most platyrrine species to adjacent, energetically suboptimal areas, and that the different dispersal abilities of these species, the lack of competitive interactions at a macroecological scale, and environmental constraints (i.e., energy availability, seasonality are key elements which explain the non-uniform pattern of species richness for this clade.

  14. Ectomycorrhizal host specificity in a changing world: can legacy effects explain anomalous current associations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofgren, Lotus; Nguyen, Nhu H; Kennedy, Peter G

    2018-02-07

    Despite the importance of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in forest ecosystems, knowledge about the ecological and co-evolutionary mechanisms underlying ECM host associations remains limited. Using a widely distributed group of ECM fungi known to form tight associations with trees in the family Pinaceae, we characterized host specificity among three unique Suillus-host species pairs using a combination of field root tip sampling and experimental bioassays. We demonstrate that the ECM fungus S. subaureus can successfully colonize Quercus hosts in both field and glasshouse settings, making this species unique in an otherwise Pinaceae-specific clade. Importantly, however, we found that the colonization of Quercus by S. subaureus required co-planting with a Pinaceae host. While our experimental results indicate that gymnosperms are required for the establishment of new S. subaureus colonies, Pineaceae hosts are locally absent at both our field sites. Given the historical presence of Pineaceae hosts before human alteration, it appears the current S. subaureus-Quercus associations represent carryover from past host presence. Collectively, our results suggest that patterns of ECM specificity should be viewed not only in light of current forest community composition, but also as a legacy effect of host community change over time. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

  15. A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate

  16. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  17. Explaining Dynamic Strategies for Defending Company Legitimacy : The Changing Outcomes of Anti-Sweatshop Campaigns in France and Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Balsiger, Philip

    2018-01-01

    This article analyzes and compares the dynamically changing outcomes of anti-sweatshop campaigns in France and Switzerland through a qualitative comparative case study using interviews and analysis of firsthand and secondary data. In both countries, some targeted firms made early concessions and later withdrew from those concessions. To explain these changing outcomes over time, the article develops a perspective that puts emphasis on interaction phases and highlights corporate strategic resp...

  18. Do differences in attitudes explain differences in national climate change policies?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjernstroem, E.; Tietenberg, T.

    2008-01-01

    In meeting the threat posed by climate change nations have responded quite differently. Using an extensive data set this study explores factors that affect individuals' attitudes towards climate change and how those attitudes ultimately affect national climate change policy. The results show that attitudes do indeed matter in implementing policy and that attitudes are shaped not only by how individuals react to the specific attributes of climate change, but also by information, by the openness of society and by attitudes toward the trustworthiness of government. (author)

  19. The smell of environmental change: Using floral scent to explain shifts in pollinator attraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura A. Burkle; Justin B. Runyon

    2017-01-01

    As diverse environmental changes continue to influence the structure and function of plant-pollinator interactions across spatial and temporal scales, we will need to enlist numerous approaches to understand these changes. Quantitative examination of floral volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is one approach that is gaining popularity, and recent work suggests that...

  20. Do Historical Changes in Parent-Child Relationships Explain Increases in Youth Conduct Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collishaw, Stephan; Gardner, Frances; Maughan, Barbara; Scott, Jacqueline; Pickles, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The coincidence of historical trends in youth antisocial behavior and change in family demographics has led to speculation of a causal link, possibly mediated by declining quality of parenting and parent-child relationships. No study to date has directly assessed whether and how parenting and parent-child relationships have changed. Two national…

  1. Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klockmann, Michael; Wallmeyer, Leonard; Fischer, Klaus

    2017-03-15

    Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  2. Living in the tide of change: Explaining Japanese subjective health from the socio-demographic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidefumi eHitokoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Today, countries around the world are caught in the tide of change towards Gesellshaft, or individualistic socio-demographic condition. Recent investigations in Japan have suggested negative impacts of change on emotional and motivational aspects of the Japanese self (Norasakkunkit, Uchida, and Toivonen, 2012; Ogihara and Uchida, 2014. Building on previous findings, in Study 1, we measured socio-demographic change towards individualistic societal condition during 1990 to 2010—two decades marked by great economic recession—at the levels of prefecture and city using archival data. In Study 2, we tested whether Japanese adults’ general health, satisfaction with life, self-esteem, and perceived social support were negatively predicted by the change using social survey. Results of hierarchical linear modeling showed small but unique negative effects of the change on several health measures, suggesting that this change had an impact on health, above and beyond individual personality traits and demographics. Additionally, interdependent happiness, the type of cultural happiness grounded in interdependence of the self (Hitokoto and Uchida, 2014, showed an independent positive relationship with all aspects of health examined. Implications for health studies in changing socio-demographic condition are discussed in the context of Japanese society after economic crisis.

  3. Conceptual model and economic experiments to explain nonpersistence and enable mechanism designs fostering behavioral change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djawadi, Behnud Mir; Fahr, René; Turk, Florian

    2014-12-01

    Medical nonpersistence is a worldwide problem of striking magnitude. Although many fields of studies including epidemiology, sociology, and psychology try to identify determinants for medical nonpersistence, comprehensive research to explain medical nonpersistence from an economics perspective is rather scarce. The aim of the study was to develop a conceptual framework that augments standard economic choice theory with psychological concepts of behavioral economics to understand how patients' preferences for discontinuing with therapy arise over the course of the medical treatment. The availability of such a framework allows the targeted design of mechanisms for intervention strategies. Our conceptual framework models the patient as an active economic agent who evaluates the benefits and costs for continuing with therapy. We argue that a combination of loss aversion and mental accounting operations explains why patients discontinue with therapy at a specific point in time. We designed a randomized laboratory economic experiment with a student subject pool to investigate the behavioral predictions. Subjects continue with therapy as long as experienced utility losses have to be compensated. As soon as previous losses are evened out, subjects perceive the marginal benefit of persistence lower than in the beginning of the treatment. Consequently, subjects start to discontinue with therapy. Our results highlight that concepts of behavioral economics capture the dynamic structure of medical nonpersistence better than does standard economic choice theory. We recommend that behavioral economics should be a mandatory part of the development of possible intervention strategies aimed at improving patients' compliance and persistence behavior. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Explaining Women's Success: Technological Change and the Skill Content of Women's Work

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra E. Black; Alexandra Spitz-Oener

    2010-01-01

    The closing of the gender wage gap is an ongoing phenomenon in industrialized countries. However, research has been limited in its ability to understand the causes of these changes, due in part to an inability to directly compare the work of women to that of men. In this study, we use a new approach for analyzing changes in the gender pay gap that uses direct measures of job tasks and gives a comprehensive characterization of how work for men and women has changed in recent decades. Using dat...

  5. Can a one-layer optical skin model including melanin and inhomogeneously distributed blood explain spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectra?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Hanna; Pettersson, Anders; Larsson, Marcus; Strömberg, Tomas

    2011-02-01

    Model based analysis of calibrated diffuse reflectance spectroscopy can be used for determining oxygenation and concentration of skin chromophores. This study aimed at assessing the effect of including melanin in addition to hemoglobin (Hb) as chromophores and compensating for inhomogeneously distributed blood (vessel packaging), in a single-layer skin model. Spectra from four humans were collected during different provocations using a twochannel fiber optic probe with source-detector separations 0.4 and 1.2 mm. Absolute calibrated spectra using data from either a single distance or both distances were analyzed using inverse Monte Carlo for light transport and Levenberg-Marquardt for non-linear fitting. The model fitting was excellent using a single distance. However, the estimated model failed to explain spectra from the other distance. The two-distance model did not fit the data well at either distance. Model fitting was significantly improved including melanin and vessel packaging. The most prominent effect when fitting data from the larger separation compared to the smaller separation was a different light scattering decay with wavelength, while the tissue fraction of Hb and saturation were similar. For modeling spectra at both distances, we propose using either a multi-layer skin model or a more advanced model for the scattering phase function.

  6. Bringing ideas back in to historical institutionalism to explain endogenous institutional change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Martin B.; Schmidt, Vivien

    The problem of how to theorize endogenous institutional change remains the ‘holy grail’ of historical institutionalism. Particularly important advances have been made within scholarship on gradual institutional transformation th at has deployed concepts like institutional ambiguity and interpreta...... in relation to two key issues: Interpretive battles over compliance and enforcement; and the role of ideas in forming, maintaining and changing the coalitions of actors that support a specific institutional setup....

  7. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stotz, I. L.; Iaffaldano, G.; Davies, D. R.

    2017-07-01

    The timing and magnitude of a Pacific plate motion change within the past 10 Ma remains enigmatic, due to the noise associated with finite-rotation data. Nonetheless, it has been hypothesized that this change was driven by the arrival of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) at the Melanesian arc and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution, building on previous efforts to mitigate the impact of finite-rotation data noise. We find that the largest change in Pacific plate-motion direction occurred between 10 and 5 Ma, with the plate rotating clockwise. We subsequently develop and use coupled global numerical models of the mantle/lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key drivers of this kinematic change.

  8. Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanshawe, Thomas R; Prevost, A Toby; Roberts, J Scott; Green, Robert C; Armstrong, David; Marteau, Theresa M

    2008-09-01

    This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.

  9. Complex and changing patterns of natural selection explain the evolution of the human hip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, Mark; Roseman, Charles C

    2015-08-01

    Causal explanations for the dramatic changes that occurred during the evolution of the human hip focus largely on selection for bipedal function and locomotor efficiency. These hypotheses rest on two critical assumptions. The first-that these anatomical changes served functional roles in bipedalism-has been supported in numerous analyses showing how postcranial changes likely affected locomotion. The second-that morphological changes that did play functional roles in bipedalism were the result of selection for that behavior-has not been previously explored and represents a major gap in our understanding of hominin hip evolution. Here we use evolutionary quantitative genetic models to test the hypothesis that strong directional selection on many individual aspects of morphology was responsible for the large differences observed across a sample of fossil hominin hips spanning the Plio-Pleistocene. Our approach uses covariance among traits and the differences between relatively complete fossils to estimate the net selection pressures that drove the major transitions in hominin hip evolution. Our findings show a complex and changing pattern of natural selection drove hominin hip evolution, and that many, but not all, traits hypothesized to play functional roles in bipedalism evolved as a direct result of natural selection. While the rate of evolutionary change for all transitions explored here does not exceed the amount expected if evolution was occurring solely through neutral processes, it was far above rates of evolution for morphological traits in other mammalian groups. Given that stasis is the norm in the mammalian fossil record, our results suggest that large shifts in the adaptive landscape drove hominin evolution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stotz, Ingo Leonardo; Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Davies, DR

    2017-01-01

    and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution....../lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key...... drivers of this kinematic change....

  11. Can changes in soil biochemistry and plant stoichiometry explain loss of animal diversity of heathlands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogels, J.J.; Verberk, W.C.E.P.; Lamers, L.P.M.; Siepel, H.

    2017-01-01

    Increased atmospheric deposition rates of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) are known to affect soil biogeochemistry and cause a decline in plant biodiversity of heathlands. Concomitant declines of heathland invertebrates are mainly attributed to changes in vegetation composition and altered habitat

  12. Explaining Employees' Evaluations of Organizational Change with the Job-Demands Resources Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, I. J. Hetty; Bakker, Arnold B.; Euwema, Martin C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Departing from the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model, the paper examined the relationship between job demands and resources on the one hand, and employees' evaluations of organizational change on the other hand. Design/methodology/approach: Participants were 818 faculty members within six faculties of a Dutch university. Data were…

  13. Optimal feedback control successfully explains changes in neural modulations during experiments with brain-machine interfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam eZacksenhouse

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent experiments with brain-machine-interfaces (BMIs indicate that the extent of neural modulations increased abruptly upon starting to operate the interface, and especially after the monkey stopped moving its hand. In contrast, neural modulations that are correlated with the kinematics of the movement remained relatively unchanged. Here we demonstrate that similar changes are produced by simulated neurons that encode the relevant signals generated by an optimal feedback controller during simulated BMI experiments. The optimal feedback controller relies on state estimation that integrates both visual and proprioceptive feedback with prior estimations from an internal model. The processing required for optimal state estimation and control were conducted in the state-space, and neural recording was simulated by modeling two populations of neurons that encode either only the estimated state or also the control signal. Spike counts were generated as realizations of doubly stochastic Poisson processes with linear tuning curves. The model successfully reconstructs the main features of the kinematics and neural activity during regular reaching movements. Most importantly, the activity of the simulated neurons successfully reproduces the observed changes in neural modulations upon switching to brain control. Further theoretical analysis and simulations indicate that increasing the process noise during normal reaching movement results in similar changes in neural modulations. Thus we conclude that the observed changes in neural modulations during BMI experiments can be attributed to increasing process noise associated with the imperfect BMI filter, and, more directly, to the resulting increase in the variance of the encoded signals associated with state estimation and the required control signal.

  14. Optimal feedback control successfully explains changes in neural modulations during experiments with brain-machine interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benyamini, Miri; Zacksenhouse, Miriam

    2015-01-01

    Recent experiments with brain-machine-interfaces (BMIs) indicate that the extent of neural modulations increased abruptly upon starting to operate the interface, and especially after the monkey stopped moving its hand. In contrast, neural modulations that are correlated with the kinematics of the movement remained relatively unchanged. Here we demonstrate that similar changes are produced by simulated neurons that encode the relevant signals generated by an optimal feedback controller during simulated BMI experiments. The optimal feedback controller relies on state estimation that integrates both visual and proprioceptive feedback with prior estimations from an internal model. The processing required for optimal state estimation and control were conducted in the state-space, and neural recording was simulated by modeling two populations of neurons that encode either only the estimated state or also the control signal. Spike counts were generated as realizations of doubly stochastic Poisson processes with linear tuning curves. The model successfully reconstructs the main features of the kinematics and neural activity during regular reaching movements. Most importantly, the activity of the simulated neurons successfully reproduces the observed changes in neural modulations upon switching to brain control. Further theoretical analysis and simulations indicate that increasing the process noise during normal reaching movement results in similar changes in neural modulations. Thus, we conclude that the observed changes in neural modulations during BMI experiments can be attributed to increasing process noise associated with the imperfect BMI filter, and, more directly, to the resulting increase in the variance of the encoded signals associated with state estimation and the required control signal.

  15. Predator-induced changes in metabolism cannot explain the growth/predation risk tradeoff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Van Buskirk, Josh

    2009-01-01

    , consistent with the "fight-or-flight" response observed in many organisms. The long term reaction showed the opposite pattern: tadpoles reduced oxygen consumption after three weeks exposure to predators, which would act to reduce the growth cost of predator defence. The results point to an instantaneous...... and reversible stress response to predation risk. This suggests that the tradeoff between avoiding predators and growing rapidly is not caused by changes in metabolic rate, and must be sought in other behavioural or physiological processes....

  16. Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

    2009-03-01

    There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated

  17. Applying the Health Belief Model in Explaining the Stages of Exercise Change in Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sas-Nowosielski Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The benefits of physical activity (PA have been so well documented that there is no doubt about the significance of PA for personal and social health. Several theoretical models have been proposed with a view to understanding the phenomenon of PA and other health behaviours. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if and how the variables suggested in the Health Belief Model (HBM determine physical activity stages of change in older adults. Material and methods. A total of 172 students of Universities of the Third Age aged 54 to 75 (mean = 62.89 ± 4.83 years agreed to participate in the study, filling out an anonymous survey measuring their stage of exercise change and determinants of health behaviours proposed by the HBM, including: perceived benefits of physical activity, perceived barriers to physical activity, perceived severity of diseases associated with sedentary lifestyle, perceived susceptibility to these diseases, and self-efficacy. Results. The results only partially support the hypothesis that the HBM predicts intentions and behaviours related to the physical activity of older adults. Only two variables were moderately-to-strongly related to stages of exercise change, namely perceived barriers and self-efficacy. Conclusion. Interventions aimed at informing older adults about the benefits of physical activity and the threats associated with sedentary lifestyle can be expected to have rather a weak influence on their readiness for physical activity.

  18. Multinomial logistic models explaining income changes of migrants to high-amenity counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Reichert, C; Rudzitis, G

    1992-01-01

    "A survey of residents of and migrants to 15 fast-growing wilderness counties [in the United States] showed that only 25 percent of the migrants increased their income, while almost 50 percent accepted income losses upon their moves to high-amenity counties. Concomitantly, amenities and quality of life were more important factors in the migration decision than was employment, for instance. We focused on migrants in the labor force and employed multinomial logistic regression to identify the impact of migrants' characteristics, their satisfaction/dissatisfaction with previous location (push), and the importance of destination features (pull) on income change." excerpt

  19. Using altimetry to help explain patchy changes in hydrographic carbon measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Keith B.; Key, Robert M.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Glover, David M.; Ishida, Akio; Ishii, Masao; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Lo Monaco, Claire; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mercier, Herlé; Metzl, Nicolas; PéRez, Fiz F.; Rios, Aida F.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Wetzel, Patrick; Winn, Christopher D.; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2009-09-01

    Here we use observations and ocean models to identify mechanisms driving large seasonal to interannual variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved oxygen (O2) in the upper ocean. We begin with observations linking variations in upper ocean DIC and O2 inventories with changes in the physical state of the ocean. Models are subsequently used to address the extent to which the relationships derived from short-timescale (6 months to 2 years) repeat measurements are representative of variations over larger spatial and temporal scales. The main new result is that convergence and divergence (column stretching) attributed to baroclinic Rossby waves can make a first-order contribution to DIC and O2 variability in the upper ocean. This results in a close correspondence between natural variations in DIC and O2 column inventory variations and sea surface height (SSH) variations over much of the ocean. Oceanic Rossby wave activity is an intrinsic part of the natural variability in the climate system and is elevated even in the absence of significant interannual variability in climate mode indices. The close correspondence between SSH and both DIC and O2 column inventories for many regions suggests that SSH changes (inferred from satellite altimetry) may prove useful in reducing uncertainty in separating natural and anthropogenic DIC signals (using measurements from Climate Variability and Predictability's CO2/Repeat Hydrography program).

  20. Reduced spore germination explains sensitivity of reef-building algae to climate change stressors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Ordoñez

    Full Text Available Reduced seawater pH and changes in carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification (OA decrease the recruitment of crustose coralline algae (CCAcf., an important coral-reef builder. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline in recruitment is driven by impairment of spore germination, or post-settlement processes (e.g. space competition. To address this, we conducted an experiment using a dominant CCA, Porolithon cf. onkodes to test the independent and combined effects of OA, warming, and irradiance on its germination success and early development. Elevated CO2 negatively affected several processes of spore germination, including formation of the germination disc, initial growth, and germling survival. The magnitude of these effects varied depending on the levels of temperature and irradiance. For example, the combination of high CO2 and high temperature reduced formation of the germination disc, but this effect was independent of irradiance levels, while spore abnormalities increased under high CO2 and high temperature particularly in combination with low irradiance intensity. This study demonstrates that spore germination of CCA is impacted by the independent and interactive effects of OA, increasing seawater temperature and irradiance intensity. For the first time, this provides a mechanism for how the sensitivity of critical early life history processes to global change may drive declines of adult populations of key marine calcifiers.

  1. Temporal changes of spatial soil moisture patterns: controlling factors explained with a multidisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, Edoardo; Wollschläger, Ute; Kögler, Simon; Behrens, Thorsten; Dietrich, Peter; Reinstorf, Frido; Schmidt, Karsten; Weiler, Markus; Werban, Ulrike; Zacharias, Steffen

    2016-04-01

    different hydrologic conditions and the factors controlling the temporal variability of the ECa-soil moisture relationship. The approach provided valuable insight into the time-varying contribution of local and nonlocal factors to the characteristic spatial patterns of soil moisture and the transition mechanisms. The spatial organization of soil moisture was controlled by different processes in different soil horizons, and the topsoil's moisture did not mirror processes that take place within the soil profile. Results show that, for the Schäfertal hillslope site which is presumed to be representative for non-intensively managed soils with moderate clay content, local soil properties (e.g., soil texture and porosity) are the major control on the spatial pattern of ECa. In contrast, the ECa-soil moisture relationship is small and varies over time indicating that ECa is not a good proxy for soil moisture estimation at the investigated site.Occasionally observed stronger correlations between ECa and soil moisture may be explained by background dependencies of ECa to other state variables such as pore water electrical conductivity. The results will help to improve conceptual understanding for hydrological model studies at similar or smaller scales, and to transfer observation concepts and process understanding to larger or less instrumented sites, as well as to constrain the use of EMI-based ECa data for hydrological applications.

  2. Explaining technical change in a small country the Finnish national innovation system

    CERN Document Server

    Vuorinen, Pentti

    1994-01-01

    Technical change is produced by the interaction of a large number of technical, economic, social and institutional factors. One of the starting points is the concept of national innovation systems. The aim of this book is to take Finland as an example illustrating the challenges faced by small countries. The characteristics and performance of the Finnish national innovation system of the last couple of decades are analyzed. The Finnish experience is put in a broader context by comparing it with a few other countries. The development paths possible in the near future are assessed. According to the results, many problems remain despite favourable developments in several technology indicators. The rigidities of the social institutions created during the 1970s and 1980s seem to have become obstacles for economic and technological development. There are fairly large differences between the countries studied, and even between the culturally and historically close Nordic countries. However,Finland and Sweden seem to...

  3. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.

    2015-12-10

    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

  4. Sexually selected sex differences in competitiveness explain sex differences in changes in drinking game participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hone, Liana S E; McCullough, Michael

    2015-05-14

    Drinking games are a risk factor for behavioral and health problems among university students. Previous cross-sectional research by Hone, Carter, and McCullough (2013) replicated well-established sex differences in drinking game behaviors (i.e., that men are more active drinking game participants than are women) and university drinking problems more generally. Hone et al. (2013) also found that these male-specific behavioral patterns are attributable in part to the fact that men's generally unrestricted sexual strategies, plus their social competitiveness, motivate them to participate in drinking games to display their fortitude and compete with same-sex rivals. Here, the authors conducted a study to evaluate with greater causal rigor whether sex differences in sexual restrictedness and social competitiveness-and sex differences in motivations for participating in drinking games in particular-are partially responsible for the sex differences in university students' drinking game behaviors and drinking problems. Sex differences in changes in frequency of drinking game participation were partially mediated by competitive motivations for participating in drinking games and by the effects of social competitiveness on competitive drinking game motivation. These findings lend additional support to the proposition that participation in drinking games is motivated in part by their suitability as a venue for sexual competition in university students' day-to-day lives.

  5. Sexually Selected Sex Differences in Competitiveness Explain Sex Differences in Changes in Drinking Game Participation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liana S. E. Hone

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Drinking games are a risk factor for behavioral and health problems among university students. Previous cross-sectional research by Hone, Carter, and McCullough (2013 replicated well-established sex differences in drinking game behaviors (i.e., that men are more active drinking game participants than are women and university drinking problems more generally. Hone et al. (2013 also found that these male-specific behavioral patterns are attributable in part to the fact that men's generally unrestricted sexual strategies, plus their social competitiveness, motivate them to participate in drinking games to display their fortitude and compete with same-sex rivals. Here, the authors conducted a study to evaluate with greater causal rigor whether sex differences in sexual restrictedness and social competitiveness—and sex differences in motivations for participating in drinking games in particular—are partially responsible for the sex differences in university students' drinking game behaviors and drinking problems. Sex differences in changes in frequency of drinking game participation were partially mediated by competitive motivations for participating in drinking games and by the effects of social competitiveness on competitive drinking game motivation. These findings lend additional support to the proposition that participation in drinking games is motivated in part by their suitability as a venue for sexual competition in university students' day-to-day lives.

  6. Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Stainforth, David A.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Watkins, Nicholas W.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observatio...

  7. Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Stainforth, David A; Chapman, Sandra C; Watkins, Nicholas W

    2013-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observatio...

  8. [Study of changes in Chinese herbal medicine distribution channel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Hua; Yang, Guang; Huang, Lu-Qi

    2014-07-01

    Distribution channel of Chinese herbal medicines has been changing. From Han to Ming Dynasty, Chinese herbal medicine were mainly trafficked to urban by dealers or farmers; From the Ming Dynasty to the foundation of new China, distribution channels are primarily intermediated with township "bazaar" and national distribution center with fixed place and regularly trading hours. In the planned economy period, the state-owned herbal medicine company was the sole medium with monopoly nature. From the mid1980s to the end of last century, planned economy and market economy have been co-existing. Stepping into 21st century, producing area highlighted in the distribution channels. Presence or absence and rise or fall of different types of distribution market went throughout the changing process of distribution channels, which became an important clue. Changes were motivated by economical consideration of channel subject, which originated from commodity characteristic and social environment changes.

  9. Application of first order rate kinetics to explain changes in bloom toxicity—the importance of understanding cell toxin quotas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Philip T.; Willis, Anusuya; Burford, Michele A.

    2018-04-01

    Cyanobacteria are oxygenic photosynthetic Gram-negative bacteria that can form potentially toxic blooms in eutrophic and slow flowing aquatic ecosystems. Bloom toxicity varies spatially and temporally, but understanding the mechanisms that drive these changes remains largely a mystery. Changes in bloom toxicity may result from changes in intracellular toxin pool sizes of cyanotoxins with differing molecular toxicities, and/or from changes in the cell concentrations of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacterial species or strains within bloom populations. We show here how first-order rate kinetics at the cellular level can be used to explain how environmental conditions drive changes in bloom toxicity at the ecological level. First order rate constants can be calculated for changes in cell concentration (μ c: specific cell division rate) or the volumetric biomass concentration (μ g: specific growth rate) between short time intervals throughout the cell cycle. Similar first order rate constants can be calculated for changes in nett volumetric cyanotoxin concentration (μ tox: specific cyanotoxin production rate) over similar time intervals. How μ c (or μ g ) covaries with μ tox over the cell cycle shows conclusively when cyanotoxins are being produced and metabolised, and how the toxicity of cells change in response to environment stressors. When μ tox/μ c>1, cyanotoxin cell quotas increase and individual cells become more toxic because the nett cyanotoxin production rate is higher than the cell division rate. When μ tox/μ c=1, cell cyanotoxin quotas remains fixed because the nett cyanotoxin production rate matches the cell division rate. When μ tox/μ ccyanotoxin cell quota decreases because either the nett cyanotoxin production rate is lower than the cell division rate, or metabolic breakdown and/or secretion of cyanotoxins is occurring. These fundamental equations describe cyanotoxin metabolism dynamics at the cellular level and provide the necessary

  10. Distribution of climatic changes during global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinnikov, K Ya; Kovyneva, N P

    1983-05-01

    Empirical evaluations of the influence of small (scale +/- 0.5/sup 0/C) changes in mean annual air surface temperature in the northern hemisphere on the fields of the mean values of the principal meteorological elements (temperature, pressure, precipitation) are discussed. The archives of climatic data for the last 100 years were subjected to statistical processing. The method is described in detail. 14 references, 5 figures.

  11. The country of distribution effect on the brand attitude change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Mauro da Costa Hernandez

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the country of distribution effect on the change of attitudes towards a brand. Country of distribution is defined as the results (positive or negative obtained by a brand when it communicates to be distributed in a foreigner locale. The results of three experiments demonstrate that the country of distribution effect is higher when the country is a traditional manufacturer (vs. non-traditional manufacturer of the brand’s product category. Further, the country of distribution effect is higher for high quality (vs. low quality brands and is moderated by the perceived success of the brand in the distribution country.

  12. The Parana paradox: can a model explain the decadal impacts of climate variability and land-cover change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Livino, A.; Briscoe, J.

    2013-12-01

    Since the 1970s, despite a decrease in rainfall, flow in the Parana river has increased. This paradox is explored using the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. If there were no change in land cover, the modeled runoff decreased from the 1970s to the 2000s by 11.8% (with 1970 land cover) or 18.8% (with 2008 land cover). When the model is run holding climate constant, the decadal average of the modeled runoff increased by 24.4% (with the 1970s climate) or by 33.6% (with 2000s climate). When the model is run allowing both the actual climate and land-cover changes, the model gives an increase in the decadal average of runoff by 8.5%. This agrees well with 10.5% increase in the actual stream flow as measured at Itaipu. There are three main conclusions from this work. First, the ED model is able to explain a major, paradoxical, reality in the Parana basin. Second, it is necessary to take into account both climate and land use changes when exploring past or future changes in river flows. Third, the ED model, now coupled with a regional climate model (i.e., EDBRAMS), is a sound basis for exploring likely changes in river flows in major South American rivers.

  13. Phenological changes in bamboo carbohydrates explain the preference for culm over leaves by giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca during spring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrina K Knott

    Full Text Available Seasonal changes in the foodscape force herbivores to select different plant species or plant parts to meet nutritional requirements. We examined whether the search for calorie-rich carbohydrates explained giant panda's selection for bamboo culm over leaves during spring. Leaves and culms were collected from four Phyllostachys bamboos (P. aurea, P. aureosulcata, P. glauca, and P. nuda once per month over 18-27 months. Monthly changes in annual plant part nutrients were examined, and compared to seasonal foraging behaviors of captive giant pandas. Although total fiber was greater (p<0.0001 in culm (85.6 ± 0.5% than leaves (55.3 ± 0.4% throughout the year, culm fiber was at its lowest in spring (79-85% when culm selection by giant pandas exceeded 70% of their overall diet. Culm starch also was greatest (p = 0.044 during spring (5.5 ± 1.1% and 2.5-fold the percentage of starch in leaves (2.2 ± 0.6%. The free sugars in spring culm consisted of a high proportion of glucose (35% and fructose (47%, whereas sucrose made up 42% of the total free sugar content of spring leaves. Bound sugars in culm consisted of 60% glucose and 38% xylose likely representative of hemicellulose. The concentrations of bound sugars (hemicelluloses in spring culms (543.7 ± 13.0 mg/g was greater (p<0.001 than in leaves (373.0 ± 14.8 mg/g. These data help explain a long-standing question in giant panda foraging ecology: why consume the plant part with the lowest protein and fat during the energetically intensive spring breeding season? Giant pandas likely prefer spring culm that contains abundant mono- and polysaccharides made more bioavailable as a result of reduced fiber content. These data suggest that phenological changes in bamboo plant part nutrition drive foraging decisions by giant pandas.

  14. Changes of the electron density distribution during MHD activity in CHS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soltwisch, H.; Tanaka, K.

    2000-09-01

    Density oscillations induced by MHD activities were observed in NBI heated plasmas on CHS by using an HCN laser interferometer. The accompanied changes of the density profiles were also observed. The oscillations are composition of m=0 sawteeth like crash and m=2 sinusoidal oscillations as a post courser of the crash. Possible models of the oscillation structure are examined in order to explain experimental data of the interferometer. Rotating plasma core, which is hollow profile and keeps constant elongation of the flux surface can explain amplitude and phase distribution of the sinusoidal oscillation. (author)

  15. Changing distributions of Cantharidae and Buprestidae within Great Britain (Coleoptera)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alexander, K.

    2003-01-01

    Changing distributions of Cantharidae and Buprestidae within Great Britain (Coleoptera) Data are presented on the distribution of selected species from two coleopteran families chosen to represent a random slice of the British fauna. The species have been chosen as exhibiting extremes of range

  16. Distributed Leadership of School Curriculum Change: An Integrative Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasso, Wendy; Knight, Bruce Allen; Purnell, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Since its inception in 1999, the distributed leadership framework of Spillane, Halverson, and Diamond [2004. "Towards a Theory of Leadership Practice: A Distributed Perspective." "Journal of Curriculum Studies" 36 (1): 3-34. doi:10.1080/0022027032000106726] has supported research into leadership and change in schools. Whilst…

  17. Change of particle size distribution during Brownian coagulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, K.W.

    1984-01-01

    Change in particle size distribution due to Brownian coagulation in the continuum regime has been stuied analytically. A simple analytic solution for the size distribution of an initially lognormal distribution is obtained based on the assumption that the size distribution during the coagulation process attains or can, at least, be represented by a time dependent lognormal function. The results are found to be in a form that corrects Smoluchowski's solution for both polydispersity and size-dependent kernel. It is further shown that regardless of whether the initial distribution is narrow or broad, the spread of the distribution is characterized by approaching a fixed value of the geometric standard deviation. This result has been compared with the self-preserving distribution obtained by similarity theory. (Author)

  18. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  19. Can differences in phosphorus uptake kinetics explain the distribution of cattail and sawgrass in the Florida Everglades?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKee Karen L

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cattail (Typha domingensis has been spreading in phosphorus (P enriched areas of the oligotrophic Florida Everglades at the expense of sawgrass (Cladium mariscus spp. jamaicense. Abundant evidence in the literature explains how the opportunistic features of Typha might lead to a complete dominance in P-enriched areas. Less clear is how Typha can grow and acquire P at extremely low P levels, which prevail in the unimpacted areas of the Everglades. Results Apparent P uptake kinetics were measured for intact plants of Cladium and Typha acclimated to low and high P at two levels of oxygen in hydroponic culture. The saturated rate of P uptake was higher in Typha than in Cladium and higher in low-P acclimated plants than in high-P acclimated plants. The affinity for P uptake was two-fold higher in Typha than in Cladium, and two- to three-fold higher for low-P acclimated plants compared to high-P acclimated plants. As Cladium had a greater proportion of its biomass allocated to roots, the overall uptake capacity of the two species at high P did not differ. At low P availability, Typha increased biomass allocation to roots more than Cladium. Both species also adjusted their P uptake kinetics, but Typha more so than Cladium. The adjustment of the P uptake system and increased biomass allocation to roots resulted in a five-fold higher uptake per plant for Cladium and a ten-fold higher uptake for Typha. Conclusions Both Cladium and Typha adjust P uptake kinetics in relation to plant demand when P availability is high. When P concentrations are low, however, Typha adjusts P uptake kinetics and also increases allocation to roots more so than Cladium, thereby improving both efficiency and capacity of P uptake. Cladium has less need to adjust P uptake kinetics because it is already efficient at acquiring P from peat soils (e.g., through secretion of phosphatases, symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, nutrient conservation growth

  20. Changes of firm size distribution: The case of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Cheong, Chongcheul; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the distribution and inequality of firm sizes is evaluated for the Korean firms listed on the stock markets. Using the amount of sales, total assets, capital, and the number of employees, respectively, as a proxy for firm sizes, we find that the upper tail of the Korean firm size distribution can be described by power-law distributions rather than lognormal distributions. Then, we estimate the Zipf parameters of the firm sizes and assess the changes in the magnitude of the exponents. The results show that the calculated Zipf exponents over time increased prior to the financial crisis, but decreased after the crisis. This pattern implies that the degree of inequality in Korean firm sizes had severely deepened prior to the crisis, but lessened after the crisis. Overall, the distribution of Korean firm sizes changes over time, and Zipf’s law is not universal but does hold as a special case.

  1. A longitudinal study to explain strategies to change weight and muscles among normal weight and overweight children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, M P; Ricciardelli, L A; Holt, K

    2005-12-01

    Previous research has indicated that both boys and girls strive for a slim body, with boys having an additional focus on a muscular body build. The current study was designed to evaluate the utility of a biopsychosocial model to explain body image and body change strategies among children. The study evaluated changes over time in body image and strategies to lose weight and increase muscles among 132 normal weight and 67 overweight boys (mean age = 9.23 years) and 158 normal weight and 55 overweight girls (mean age = 9.33 years). The predictive role of BMI, positive and negative affect, self-esteem and perceived sociocultural pressures to lose weight or increase muscle on body image and body change strategies over a 16 month period was evaluated. All participants completed the questionnaire on both occasions. The results demonstrated that both overweight boys and girls were more likely to be dissatisfied with their weight, place more importance on their weight, engage in more strategies to lose weight as well as perceive more pressure to lose weight. Overweight boys and girls were also more likely to report lower levels of self-esteem and positive affect, and higher levels of negative affect, and reported a reduction in their self-esteem over time. Regression analyses demonstrated that among overweight boys, low self-esteem and high levels of perceived pressure to lose weight predicted weight dissatisfaction; for overweight girls, weight dissatisfaction was also predicted by low levels of self-esteem. The implication of these findings in terms of factors contributing to the adoption of health risk behaviors among children is discussed.

  2. Can Protection Motivation Theory explain farmers'adaptation to Climate change/variability decision making in the Gambia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagagnan, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    In the Gambia, Changes in the climate pattern has affected and continue to affect the agriculture sector and therefore calling for effective adaptation policies. The present study aimed to explain farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measure through the protection motivation theory in The Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in all the eight communities of the study area. A transect walk was conducted first followed by a survey with 283 informants. The perception variables were referring to the past 20 years while the stated implementation was addressing the current adaptation practices. Results showed that on one hand, most of the perception variables such as severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers are significantly correlated to protection motivation and on the other hand Protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique are strongly correlated. Structural Equation Modeling confirms the mediation role of Protection motivation between Farmers stated implementation and their perception of climate variability. Decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, decrease of the length of the growing season are factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. Cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation is the main barrier to farmers `protection motivation. Therefore the study suggested that farmers' awareness about climate change/variability should be increased through farmers' field school and awareness campaigns, farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be made accessible to farmers through loans facilities and subsidizes application.

  3. Collaborative Professional Development for Distributed Teacher Leadership towards School Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sales, Auxiliadora; Moliner, Lidón; Francisco Amat, Andrea

    2017-01-01

    Professional development that aims to build school change capacity requires spaces for collaborative action and reflection. These spaces should promote learning and foster skills for distributed leadership in managing school change. The present study analyses the case of the Seminar for Critical Citizenship (SCC) established by teachers of infant,…

  4. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

    2006-01-01

    likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover......Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...

  5. Do benthic sediment characteristics explain the distribution of juveniles of the deposit-feeding sea cucumber Australostichopus mollis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Matthew J.; Jeffs, Andrew G.

    2010-10-01

    Despite the economic importance of many deposit-feeding sea cucumbers, the ecology of their juveniles is poorly understood and factors influencing juvenile habitat selection remain largely unexplained. We investigated the importance of the characteristics of the available sediment in determining the highly localised distribution of juveniles of the deposit-feeding Australasian sea cucumber Australostichopus mollis. Wild-caught juveniles were displaced to non-juvenile habitats with surface sediments characterised by lower total organic content (TOM) and nitrogen content, higher chlorophyll- a content and coarser grain size profiles compared to juvenile sites. The growth of displaced individual animals was monitored over 9 months and compared to control animals caged in the juvenile habitats. Displaced juvenile sea cucumbers had high survival rates that did not differ significantly from juvenile habitats. Displaced juveniles exhibited significantly higher specific growth rate (SGR) than those at juvenile sites ( p < 0.001), although the growth of individuals was highly variable within individual cages and among sites. The lower TOM and nitrogen content, and coarser grain size profiles at non-juvenile sites did not result in reductions in juvenile survival or growth. Higher microphytobenthic activity may have resulted in the higher growth rates observed at shallow non-juvenile sites. The SGR of juveniles over the first 6 months of the experiment ranged between 0.45% d - 1 and 0.74% d - 1 for all sites. This was followed by marked growth limitation between 6 and 9 months either as a result of increasing juvenile biomass in cages or seasonal growth limitation. A subsequent reduction in juvenile density resulted in markedly increased growth over the following 3 month period. Juvenile A. mollis show an ability to exploit a variety of benthic sediment food sources, indicating that their highly localised distribution is not due to differences in the food quality of

  6. Complexity explained

    CERN Document Server

    Erdi, Peter

    2008-01-01

    This book explains why complex systems research is important in understanding the structure, function and dynamics of complex natural and social phenomena. Readers will learn the basic concepts and methods of complex system research.

  7. Changes in Habitat Structure May Explain Decrease in Reintroduced Mohor Gazelle Population in the Guembeul Fauna Reserve, Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eulalia Moreno

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Reintroduction is a widespread method for saving populations of endangered species from extinction. In spite of recent reviews, it is difficult to reach general conclusions about its value as a conservation tool, as authors are reluctant to publish unsuccessful results. The Mohor gazelle is a North African gazelle, extinct in the wild. Eight individuals were reintroduced in Senegal in 1984. The population grew progressively, albeit slowly, during the first 20 years after release, but then declined dramatically, until the population in 2009 was estimated at no more than 13–15 individuals. This study attempts to determine the likelihood of gazelle-habitat relationships to explain why the size of the gazelle population has diminished. Our results show that the Mohor gazelle in Guembeul is found in open habitats with less developed canopy where the grass is shorter, suggesting the possibility that changes in habitat structure have taken place during the time the gazelles have been in the Reserve, reducing the amount of suitable habitat. Reintroduction design usually concentrates on short-term factors that may affect survival of the released animals and their descendants (short-term achievement, while the key factors for assessing its success may be those that affect the long-term evolution of the population.

  8. The Kok effect in Vicia faba cannot be explained solely by changes in chloroplastic CO2 concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Thomas N; Vice, Heather; Adams, Mark A

    2017-12-01

    The Kok effect - an abrupt decline in quantum yield (QY) of net CO 2 assimilation at low photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) - is widely used to estimate respiration in the light (R), which assumes the effect is caused by light suppression of R. A recent report suggested much of the Kok effect can be explained by declining chloroplastic CO 2 concentration (c c ) at low PPFD. Several predictions arise from the hypothesis that the Kok effect is caused by declining c c , and we tested these predictions in Vicia faba. We measured CO 2 exchange at low PPFD, in 2% and 21% oxygen, in developing and mature leaves, which differed greatly in R in darkness. Our results contradicted each of the predictions based on the c c effect: QY exceeded the theoretical maximum value for photosynthetic CO 2 uptake; QY was larger in 21% than 2% oxygen; and the change in QY at the Kok effect breakpoint was unaffected by oxygen. Our results strongly suggest the Kok effect arises largely from a progressive decline in R with PPFD that includes both oxygen-sensitive and -insensitive components. We suggest an improved Kok method that accounts for high c c at low PPFD. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  9. An impaired metabolic response to hydrostatic pressure explains Alcanivorax borkumensis recorded distribution in the deep marine water column

    KAUST Repository

    Scoma, Alberto

    2016-08-12

    Alcanivorax borkumensis is an ubiquitous model organism for hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria, which dominates polluted surface waters. Its negligible presence in oil-contaminated deep waters (as observed during the Deepwater Horizon accident) raises the hypothesis that it may lack adaptive mechanisms to hydrostatic pressure (HP). The type strain SK2 was tested under 0.1, 5 and 10 MPa (corresponding to surface water, 500 and 1000 m depth, respectively). While 5 MPa essentially inactivated SK2, further increase to 10 MPa triggered some resistance mechanism, as indicated by higher total and intact cell numbers. Under 10 MPa, SK2 upregulated the synthetic pathway of the osmolyte ectoine, whose concentration increased from 0.45 to 4.71 fmoles cell-1. Central biosynthetic pathways such as cell replication, glyoxylate and Krebs cycles, amino acids metabolism and fatty acids biosynthesis, but not β-oxidation, were upregulated or unaffected at 10 MPa, although total cell number was remarkably lower with respect to 0.1 MPa. Concomitantly, expression of more than 50% of SK2 genes was downregulated, including genes related to ATP generation, respiration and protein translation. Thus, A. borkumensis lacks proper adaptation to HP but activates resistance mechanisms. These consist in poorly efficient biosynthetic rather than energy-yielding degradation-related pathways, and suggest that HP does represent a major driver for its distribution at deep-sea.

  10. Functional traits variation explains the distribution of Aextoxicon punctatum (Aextoxicaceae in pronounced moisture gradients within fog-dependent forest fragments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz eSalgado-Negret

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and fragmentation are major threats to world forests. Understanding how functional traits related to drought tolerance change across small-scale, pronounced moisture gradients in fragmented forests is important to predict species’ responses to these threats. In the case of Aextoxicon punctatum, a dominant canopy tree in fog-dependent rain forest patches in semiarid Chile, we explored how the magnitude, variability and correlation patterns of leaf and xylem vessel traits and hydraulic conductivity varied across soil moisture gradients established within and among forest patches of different size, which are associated with differences in tree establishment and mortality patterns. Leaf traits varied across soil-moisture gradients produced by fog interception. Trees growing at drier leeward edges showed higher LMA (leaf mass per area, trichome and stomatal density than trees from the wetter core and windward zones. In contrast, xylem vessel traits (vessels diameter and density did not vary producing loss of hydraulic conductivity at drier leeward edges. We also detected higher levels of phenotypic integration and variability at leeward edges. The ability of A. punctatum to modify leaf traits in response to differences in soil moisture availability established over short distances (<500 m facilitates its persistence in contrasting microhabitats within forest patches. However, xylem anatomy showed limited plasticity, which increases cavitation risk at leeward edges. Greater patch fragmentation, together with fluctuations in irradiance and soil moisture in small patches, could result in higher risk of drought-related tree mortality, with profound impacts on hydrological balances at the ecosystem scale.

  11. Leaf gas exchange and nutrient use efficiency help explain the distribution of two Neotropical mangroves under contrasting flooding and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardona-Olarte, Pablo; Krauss, Ken W.; Twilley, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa co-occur along many intertidal floodplains in the Neotropics. Their patterns of dominance shift along various gradients, coincident with salinity, soil fertility, and tidal flooding. We used leaf gas exchange metrics to investigate the strategies of these two species in mixed culture to simulate competition under different salinity concentrations and hydroperiods. Semidiurnal tidal and permanent flooding hydroperiods at two constant salinity regimes (10 g L−1 and 40 g L−1) were simulated over 10 months. Assimilation (A), stomatal conductance (gw), intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci), instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (PWUE), and photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency (PNUE) were determined at the leaf level for both species over two time periods. Rhizophora mangle had significantly higher PWUE than did L. racemosa seedlings at low salinities; however, L. racemosa had higher PNUE and stomatal conductance and gw, accordingly, had greater intercellular CO2 (calculated) during measurements. Both species maintained similar capacities for assimilation at 10 and 40 g L−1 salinity and during both permanent and tidal hydroperiod treatments. Hydroperiod alone had no detectable effect on leaf gas exchange. However, PWUE increased and PNUE decreased for both species at 40 g L−1 salinity compared to 10 g L−1. At 40 g L−1 salinity, PNUE was higher for L. racemosa than R. mangle with tidal flooding. These treatments indicated that salinity influences gas exchange efficiency, might affect how gases are apportioned intercellularly, and accentuates different strategies for distributing leaf nitrogen to photosynthesis for these two species while growing competitively.

  12. Human papillomavirus distribution in invasive cervical carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa: could HIV explain the differences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiaye, Cathy; Alemany, Laia; Ndiaye, Nafissatou; Kamaté, Bakarou; Diop, Yankhoba; Odida, Michael; Banjo, Kunbi; Tous, Sara; Klaustermeier, Jo Ellen; Clavero, Omar; Castellsagué, Xavier; Bosch, F Xavier; Trottier, Helen; de Sanjosé, Silvia

    2012-12-01

    To describe human papillomavirus (HPV) distribution in invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC) from Mali and Senegal and to compare type-specific relative contribution among sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. A multicentric study was conducted to collect paraffin-embedded blocks of ICC. Polymerase chain reaction, DNA enzyme immunoassay and line probe assay were performed for HPV detection and genotyping. Data from SSA (Mozambique, Nigeria and Uganda) and 35 other countries were compared. One hundred and sixty-four ICC cases from Mali and Senegal were tested from which 138 were positive (adjusted prevalence = 86.8%; 95% CI = 79.7-91.7%). HPV16 and HPV18 accounted for 57.2% of infections and HPV45 for 16.7%. In SSA countries, HPV16 was less frequent than in the rest of the world (49.4%vs. 62.6%; P < 0.0001) but HPV18 and HPV45 were two times more frequent (19.3%vs. 9.4%; P < 0.0001 and 10.3%vs. 5.6%; P < 0.0001, respectively). There was an ecological correlation between HIV prevalence and the increase of HPV18 and the decrease of HPV45 in ICC in SSA (P = 0.037 for both). HPV16/18/45 accounted for two-thirds of the HPV types found in invasive cervical cancer in Mali and Senegal. Our results suggest that HIV may play a role in the underlying HPV18 and HPV45 contribution to cervical cancer, but further studies are needed to confirm this correlation. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Leaf Gas Exchange and Nutrient Use Efficiency Help Explain the Distribution of Two Neotropical Mangroves under Contrasting Flooding and Salinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Cardona-Olarte

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa cooccur along many intertidal floodplains in the Neotropics. Their patterns of dominance shift along various gradients, coincident with salinity, soil fertility, and tidal flooding. We used leaf gas exchange metrics to investigate the strategies of these two species in mixed culture to simulate competition under different salinity concentrations and hydroperiods. Semidiurnal tidal and permanent flooding hydroperiods at two constant salinity regimes (10 g L−1 and 40 g L−1 were simulated over 10 months. Assimilation (A, stomatal conductance (gw, intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci, instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (PWUE, and photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency (PNUE were determined at the leaf level for both species over two time periods. Rhizophora mangle had significantly higher PWUE than did L. racemosa seedlings at low salinities; however, L. racemosa had higher PNUE and gw and, accordingly, had greater intercellular CO2 (calculated during measurements. Both species maintained similar capacities for A at 10 and 40 g L−1 salinity and during both permanent and tidal hydroperiod treatments. Hydroperiod alone had no detectable effect on leaf gas exchange. However, PWUE increased and PNUE decreased for both species at 40 g L−1 salinity compared to 10 g L−1. At 40 g L−1 salinity, PNUE was higher for L. racemosa than R. mangle with tidal flooding. These treatments indicated that salinity influences gas exchange efficiency, might affect how gases are apportioned intercellularly, and accentuates different strategies for distributing leaf nitrogen to photosynthesis for these two species while growing competitively.

  14. Strategy implementation and organizational change in healthcare organizations - a distributed change leadership perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anna B.; Ulhøi, John Parm

    This paper examines some theoretical underpinnings of distributed leadership and its ability to serve as change leadership during the process of major organizational changes in healthcare organizations. The study was initiated as part of a larger research project on distributed leadership (DL......) in the healthcare sector, financed by a research grant addressing both empirical and theoretical questions. The paper clarifies the relationship between distributed leadership and change leadership, and more specifically, the characteristics of distributed leadership in the change leadership process. We also...... propose a distributed change leadership (DCL) model that permits further development of research design and empirical studies of DCL. On a more general side, with this paper we shed more light on some aspects of leadership patterns in healthcare, where there is a distinct gap....

  15. Explaining technological change of wind power in China and the United States: Roles of energy policies, technological learning, and collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tian

    The following dissertation explains how technological change of wind power, in terms of cost reduction and performance improvement, is achieved in China and the US through energy policies, technological learning, and collaboration. The objective of this dissertation is to understand how energy policies affect key actors in the power sector to promote renewable energy and achieve cost reductions for climate change mitigation in different institutional arrangements. The dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay examines the learning processes and technological change of wind power in China. I integrate collaboration and technological learning theories to model how wind technologies are acquired and diffused among various wind project participants in China through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)--an international carbon trade program, and empirically test whether different learning channels lead to cost reduction of wind power. Using pooled cross-sectional data of Chinese CDM wind projects and spatial econometric models, I find that a wind project developer's previous experience (learning-by-doing) and industrywide wind project experience (spillover effect) significantly reduce the costs of wind power. The spillover effect provides justification for subsidizing users of wind technologies so as to offset wind farm investors' incentive to free-ride on knowledge spillovers from other wind energy investors. The CDM has played such a role in China. Most importantly, this essay provides the first empirical evidence of "learning-by-interacting": CDM also drives wind power cost reduction and performance improvement by facilitating technology transfer through collaboration between foreign turbine manufacturers and local wind farm developers. The second essay extends this learning framework to the US wind power sector, where I examine how state energy policies, restructuring of the electricity market, and learning among actors in wind industry lead to

  16. Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory K. Silber

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere. The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately

  17. Submarine flow discharge changes as a way to explain incission-overspilling and other cycles in submarine channel sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milana, J. P.; Kneller, B.; Dykstra, M.

    2009-04-01

    Many studies mainly made in subsurface slopes systems using 3D seismics supported by drill data, suggest that these environments behave cyclically, with the geological time at proximal and intermediate positions in the slope, divided in times in which erosion and elaboration of deep channels prevail and thus bypass of the sediment towards lower areas, and epochs in which accumulation prevails occurring by the development of depositional leveés and eventual widening of the channel system with some over spilling possible. To understand which are the ruling mechanisms of these cycles we study in detail the depositional processes that occur at the Rosario Fm (Baja Ca, Mexico), one of the best exposed canyon and channel-levee systems. We centered this study in the gravel fractions of the system assuming that they would indicate the transport modes of the most energetic flows. After analyzing both the bed structure and facies, and the particular conglomerate fabric at certain types of large-scale bed structures, we concluded that conglomerate deposition was by simple traction mechanisms, quite comparable to what occurs at some highly concentrated and fast fluvial streams. The main difference to fluvial hyperconcentrated tractive flows lies on bedform types and scales, as bed architecture might be at one order of scale larger than fluvial systems. Most of these conglomerates can thus be explained as deposited by known bedload mechanisms, without the need to call for hypothetical mechanisms as traction-carpet freezing, sweep fallout, etc. The bedload dominated flows responsible for gravel transport produced the bed structures due to migration of three main bedforms at different balances of erosion/accumulation. These three bedforms are gravel waves, a subcritical bedform comparable to gravel dunes, capable to produce very large-scale through cross stratification at a linguoid bedform crest type reach and large-scale (2-3 m thick) sets of gravel planar cross

  18. Using tumor phenotype, histological tumor distribution, and mammographic appearance to explain the survival differences between screen-detected and clinically detected breast cancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Shu-Lin; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Yu, Cheng-Ping; Chang, King-Jen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Tabár, László; Stephen, Duffy W; Smith, Robert A; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

    2014-08-01

    In the era of mass screening for breast cancer with mammography, it has been noted that conventional tumor attributes and mammographic appearance are insufficient to account for the better prognosis of screen-detected tumors. Such prognostication may require additional updated pathological information regarding tumor phenotype (e.g., basal status) and histological tumor distribution (focality). We investigated this hypothesis using a Bayesian approach to analyze breast cancer data from Dalarna County, Sweden. We used data for tumors diagnosed in the Swedish Two-County Trial and early service screening period, 1977-1995, and from the mature service screening period, 1996-1998. In the early period of mammographic screening (1977-1995), the crude hazard ratio (HR) of breast cancer death for screen-detected cases compared with symptomatic ones was 0.22 (95% CI: 0.17-0.29) compared with 0.53 (95% CI: 0.34-0.76) when adjusted for conventional tumor attributes only. Using the data from the mature service screening period, 1996-1998, the HR was 0.23 (95% CI: 0.08-0.44) unadjusted and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.26-1.47) after adjustment for tumor phenotype, mammographic appearance, histological tumor distribution, and conventional tumor attributes. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction of breast cancer deaths using these variables without the detection mode was 0.82, only slightly less than that observed when additionally including the detection mode (AUC=0.83). Using Freedman statistics, conventional tumor attributes and mammographic appearances explained 58% (95% CI: 57.5-58.6%) of the difference of breast cancer survival between the screen-detected and the clinically detected breast cancers, whereas the corresponding figure was increased to 77% (95% CI: 75.6-77.6%) when adding the two information on tumor phenotype and histological tumor distribution. The results indicated that conventional tumor attributes and mammographic appearance are not sufficient to be

  19. Longitudinal changes in abdominal fat distribution with menopause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Ruth M; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Kanaley, Jill A

    2009-03-01

    Increases in abdominal fat have been reported with menopause, but the impact of menopause on abdominal fat distribution (visceral vs subcutaneous) is still unclear. The objective of the study was to determine if abdominal fat content (volume) or distribution is altered with menopause. Magnetic resonance imaging was used to quantify total abdominal, subcutaneous, and visceral fat in 8 healthy women, both in the premenopausal state and 8 years later in the postmenopausal state. Physical activity (PA) and blood lipids were also measured. Body weight and waist circumference did not change with menopause (pre- vs postmenopause: body weight, 63.2 +/- 3.1 vs 63.9 +/- 2.5 kg; waist circumference, 92.1 +/- 4.6 vs 93.4 +/- 3.7 cm); however, total abdominal fat, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat all significantly (P fat distribution was not significantly different after menopause (pre- vs postmenopause: subcutaneous, 73% +/- 3% vs 71% +/- 3%; visceral, 26% +/- 3% vs 28% +/- 3%). Lean mass, fat mass, and PA, along with total cholesterol and triglyceride levels, did not change with menopause. High-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein both increased (P abdominal fat content increased with menopause despite no change in PA, body weight, or waist circumference; however, menopause did not affect the relative abdominal fat distribution in these women.

  20. SPSS explained

    CERN Document Server

    Hinton, Perry R; Brownlow, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    SPSS Explained provides the student with all that they need to undertake statistical analysis using SPSS. It combines a step-by-step approach to each procedure with easy to follow screenshots at each stage of the process. A number of other helpful features are provided: regular advice boxes with tips specific to each test explanations divided into 'essential' and 'advanced' sections to suit readers at different levels frequently asked questions at the end of each chapter. The first edition of this popular book has been fully updated for IBM SPSS version 21 and also includes: chapters that expl

  1. The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matto Mildenberger

    Full Text Available While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

  2. The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mildenberger, Matto; Howe, Peter; Lachapelle, Erick; Stokes, Leah; Marlon, Jennifer; Gravelle, Timothy

    2016-01-01

    While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

  3. Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

    2017-08-01

    The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

  4. Diachronic changes in word probability distributions in daily press

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanković Jelena

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes in probability distributions of individual words and word types were investigated within two samples of daily press in the span of fifty years. Two samples of daily press were used in this study. The one derived from the Corpus of Serbian Language (CSL /Kostić, Đ., 2001/ that covers period between 1945. and 1957. and the other derived from the Ebart Media Documentation (EBR that was complied from seven daily news and five weekly magazines from 2002. and 2003. Each sample consisted of about 1 million words. The obtained results indicate that nouns and adjectives were more frequent in the CSL, while verbs and prepositions are more frequent in the EBR sample, suggesting a decrease of sentence length in the last five decades. Conspicuous changes in probability distribution of individual words were observed for nouns and adjectives, while minimal or no changes were observed for verbs and prepositions. Such an outcome suggests that nouns and adjectives are most susceptible to diachronic changes, while verbs and prepositions appear to be resistant to such changes.

  5. Astronomy Explained

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, Gerald

    Every year large numbers of people take up the study of astronomy, mostly at amateur level. There are plenty of elementary books on the market, full of colourful photographs, but lacking in proper explanations of how and why things are as they are. Many people eventually wish to go beyond the 'coffee-table book' stage and study this fascinating subject in greater depth. This book is written for them. In addition, many people sit for public examinations in this subject each year and this book is also intended to be of use to them. All the topics from the GCSE syllabus are covered here, with sample questions at the end of each chapter. Astronomy Explained provides a comprehensive treatment of the subject in more depth than is usually found in elementary works, and will be of interest to both amateur astronomers and students of astronomy.

  6. Liver allocation and distribution: time for a change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Ranjit; Hirose, Ryutaro; Mulligan, David

    2017-04-01

    Liver allograft allocation has been a topic of hot debate for over a decade. New redistricting changes have been proposed by the Liver and Intestinal Transplant Committee to the existing United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) liver allocation policy. The basis of this new proposal is similar to the old one with an aim to distribute organs in a fair, efficient and equitable fashion. In this review, we plan to look in depth at the redistribution proposals thus far, their merits and how they may help patients who do not have adequate access to livers. Many authors have criticized the proposed changes to organ distribution to reduce geographic disparity in access to liver transplantation. Our focus in this article is to bring forth the most recent literature and proposed changes in the current distribution system. We will also mention two other possible methods that have been proposed to redesign distribution using concentric circles and neighborhoods. In this article, we also look at the economics of the redistricting proposal and its effects on transplant centers. The UNOS Liver and Intestinal Transplant Committee has recommended a proposal using the eight-district model with proximity circles and three additional Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) points with initial sharing MELD threshold of 25 as a starting point to reduce disparity in patient access to deceased donor livers for transplantation. This proposal has met with significant resistance because of concerns of cost, logistics and impact on existing transplant centers. Other methodologies have also been proposed that have the potential to significantly improve our current disparity of access to life-saving organs. Variation in the supply of donor organs vs. the demand or need for liver transplant by geography and the current defined areas of distribution drive this disparity. Cost benefits to the healthcare system in caring for patients with advanced stages of liver disease may outweigh increased

  7. When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

    2018-01-01

    Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen

  8. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses

  9. Evidence-based identification of key beliefs explaining adult male circumcision motivation in Zimbabwe: targets for behavior change messaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaño, Daniel E; Kasprzyk, Danuta; Hamilton, Deven T; Tshimanga, Mufuta; Gorn, Gerald

    2014-05-01

    Male circumcision (MC) reduces HIV acquisition among men, leading WHO/UNAIDS to recommend a goal to circumcise 80 % of men in high HIV prevalence countries. Significant investment to increase MC capacity in priority countries was made, yet only 5 % of the goal has been achieved in Zimbabwe. The integrated behavioral model (IBM) was used as a framework to investigate the factors affecting MC motivation among men in Zimbabwe. A survey instrument was designed based on elicitation study results, and administered to a representative household-based sample of 1,201 men aged 18-30 from two urban and two rural areas in Zimbabwe. Multiple regression analysis found all five IBM constructs significantly explained MC Intention. Nearly all beliefs underlying the IBM constructs were significantly correlated with MC Intention. Stepwise regression analysis of beliefs underlying each construct respectively found that 13 behavioral beliefs, 5 normative beliefs, 4 descriptive norm beliefs, 6 efficacy beliefs, and 10 control beliefs were significant in explaining MC Intention. A final stepwise regression of the five sets of significant IBM construct beliefs identified 14 key beliefs that best explain Intention. Similar analyses were carried out with subgroups of men by urban-rural and age. Different sets of behavioral, normative, efficacy, and control beliefs were significant for each sub-group, suggesting communication messages need to be targeted to be most effective for sub-groups. Implications for the design of effective MC demand creation messages are discussed. This study demonstrates the application of theory-driven research to identify evidence-based targets for intervention messages to increase men's motivation to get circumcised and thereby improve demand for male circumcision.

  10. Identification of Key Beliefs Explaining Male Circumcision Motivation Among Adolescent Boys in Zimbabwe: Targets for Behavior Change Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzyk, Danuta; Tshimanga, Mufuta; Hamilton, Deven T; Gorn, Gerald J; Montaño, Daniel E

    2018-02-01

    Male circumcision (MC) significantly reduces HIV acquisition among men, leading WHO/UNAIDS to recommend high HIV and low MC prevalence countries circumcise 80% of adolescents and men age 15-49. Despite significant investment to increase MC capacity only 27% of the goal has been achieved in Zimbabwe. To increase adoption, research to create evidence-based messages is greatly needed. The Integrated Behavioral Model (IBM) was used to investigate factors affecting MC motivation among adolescents. Based on qualitative elicitation study results a survey was designed and administered to a representative sample of 802 adolescent boys aged 13-17 in two urban and two rural areas in Zimbabwe. Multiple regression analysis found all six IBM constructs (2 attitude, 2 social influence, 2 personal agency) significantly explained MC intention (R 2  = 0.55). Stepwise regression analysis of beliefs underlying each IBM belief-based construct found 9 behavioral, 6 injunctive norm, 2 descriptive norm, 5 efficacy, and 8 control beliefs significantly explained MC intention. A final stepwise regression of all the significant IBM construct beliefs identified 12 key beliefs best explaining intention. Similar analyses were carried out with subgroups of adolescents by urban-rural and age. Different sets of behavioral, normative, efficacy, and control beliefs were significant for each sub-group. This study demonstrates the application of theory-driven research to identify evidence-based targets for the design of effective MC messages for interventions to increase adolescents' motivation. Incorporating these findings into communication campaigns is likely to improve demand for MC.

  11. WAP explained

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, M.J.; Pulsipher, A.G.

    2004-01-01

    The Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) is a federal block grant program administered by all 50 states and the District of Columbia through community action agencies, state energy offices, local government, and other nonprofit organizations to provide weatherization services to eligible households. The WAP was established in 1976 to increase the energy efficiency, reduce the energy expenditures, and improve the health and safety of low-income households, especially those households that are particularly vulnerable such as families with children, persons with disabilities, and the elderly. The manner in which WAP funds have been allocated to states, however, has been a contentious issue since the inception of the program. Southern states have argued that too much of the federal funding goes to cold-climate and rural states. Northern states disagree. In 1990, Congress amended the Energy Conservation and Production Act and required the Department of Energy to develop a new funding formula. The Department of Energy currently uses a three-factor formula developed in 1995 in conjunction with a two-factor formula developed in 1977 and a hold-harmless provision to allocate WAP funding. The purpose of this paper is to explain the WAP allocation mechanism and the assumptions associated with the 1977 and the 1995 funding formula. The factors that compose each funding formula are critically assessed and various implementation issues are reviewed, including the selection of the trigger point and program capacity levels. It is not possible to define the need for weatherization assistance objectively and in a unique manner, and this ambiguity is the main reason why the WAP allocation mechanism is expected to remain a lively topic of debate and contention

  12. Do Changes in Job Mobility Explain the Growth of Wage Inequality among Men in the United States, 1977-2005?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouw, Ted; Kalleberg, Arne L.

    2010-01-01

    To what extent did the increase in wage inequality among men in the United States over the past three decades result from job loss and/or employment instability? We propose a simple method for decomposing the change in wage inequality into components due to upward and downward between-employer mobility and within-employer wage changes using data…

  13. Varieties of flood risk governance in Europe : How do countries respond to driving forces and what explains institutional change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiering, Mark; Kaufmann, M.; Mees, H.; Schellenberger, T.; Ganzevoort, W.; Hegger, D.L.T.; Larrue, C.; Matczak, P.

    Abstract Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the

  14. Varieties of flood risk governance in Europe: How do countries respond to driving forces and what explains institutional change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiering, M.A.; Kaufmann, M.; Mees, H.; Schellenberger, T.; Ganzevoort, W.; Hegger, D.L.T.; Larrue, C.; Matczak, P.

    2017-01-01

    Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the forces of

  15. Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The case of Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangoma, Peter; Aakvik, Arild; Robberstad, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    explained 35% of the increase. The determinants with the greatest total contribution (change in CI plus change in effect) to the increase in inequality of stunting were mother’s height and weight, wealth, birth order, facility delivery, duration of breastfeeding, and maternal education. For fever, almost all (86%) the increase in inequality was accounted for by the increase in the effect of determinants of fever, while the distribution of determinants mattered less. The determinants with the greatest total contribution to the increase in inequality of fever were wealth, maternal education, birth order and breastfeeding duration. In the multilevel model, we found that the likelihood of a child being stunted or experiencing fever depends on the community in which they live. Conclusions To curb the increase in inequality of stunting and fever, policy may focus on improving levels of, and reducing inequality in, access to facility deliveries, maternal nutrition (which may be related to maternal weight and height), complementary feeding (for breastfed children), wealth, maternal education, and child care (related to birth order effects). Improving overall levels of these determinants contribute to the persistence of inequality if these determinants are unequally concentrated on the well off to begin with. PMID:28170442

  16. Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs: The case of Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Hangoma

    Full Text Available Child health interventions were drastically scaled up in the period leading up to 2015 as countries aimed at meeting the 2015 target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. MDGs were defined in terms of achieving improvements in average health. Significant improvements in average child health are documented, but evidence also points to rising inequality. It is important to investigate factors that drive the increasing disparities in order to inform the post-2015 development agenda of reducing inequality, as captured in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs. We investigated changes in socioeconomic inequality in stunting and fever in Zambia in 2007 and 2014. Unlike the huge literature that seeks to quantify the contribution of different determinants on the observed inequality at any given time, we quantify determinants of changes in inequality.Data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS were utilized. Our sample consisted of children aged 0-5 years (n = 5,616 in 2007 and n = 12,714 in 2014. We employed multilevel models to assess the determinants of stunting and fever, which are two important child health indicators. The concentration index (CI was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Changes in inequality of stunting and fever were investigated using Oaxaca-type decomposition of the CI. In this approach, the change in the CI for stunting/fever is decomposed into changes in CI for each determinant and changes in the effect-measured as an elasticity-of each determinant on stunting/fever.While average rates of stunting reduced in 2014 socioeconomic inequality in stunting increased significantly. Inequality in fever incidence also increased significantly, but average rates of fever did not reduce. The increase in the inequality (CI of determinants accounted for the largest part (42.5% of the increase in inequality of stunting, while the increase in the effect of determinants explained 35% of the

  17. Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The case of Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangoma, Peter; Aakvik, Arild; Robberstad, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    Child health interventions were drastically scaled up in the period leading up to 2015 as countries aimed at meeting the 2015 target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDGs were defined in terms of achieving improvements in average health. Significant improvements in average child health are documented, but evidence also points to rising inequality. It is important to investigate factors that drive the increasing disparities in order to inform the post-2015 development agenda of reducing inequality, as captured in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated changes in socioeconomic inequality in stunting and fever in Zambia in 2007 and 2014. Unlike the huge literature that seeks to quantify the contribution of different determinants on the observed inequality at any given time, we quantify determinants of changes in inequality. Data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were utilized. Our sample consisted of children aged 0-5 years (n = 5,616 in 2007 and n = 12,714 in 2014). We employed multilevel models to assess the determinants of stunting and fever, which are two important child health indicators. The concentration index (CI) was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Changes in inequality of stunting and fever were investigated using Oaxaca-type decomposition of the CI. In this approach, the change in the CI for stunting/fever is decomposed into changes in CI for each determinant and changes in the effect-measured as an elasticity-of each determinant on stunting/fever. While average rates of stunting reduced in 2014 socioeconomic inequality in stunting increased significantly. Inequality in fever incidence also increased significantly, but average rates of fever did not reduce. The increase in the inequality (CI) of determinants accounted for the largest part (42.5%) of the increase in inequality of stunting, while the increase in the effect of determinants explained 35% of the increase. The

  18. Comparison of the Utility of Two Assessments for Explaining and Predicting Productivity Change: Well-Being Versus an HRA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandy, William M; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Rula, Elizabeth Y

    2016-01-01

    To compare utility of employee well-being to health risk assessment (HRA) as predictors of productivity change. Panel data from 2189 employees who completed surveys 2 years apart were used in hierarchical models comparing the influence of well-being and health risk on longitudinal changes in presenteeism and job performance. Absenteeism change was evaluated in a nonexempt subsample. Change in well-being was the most significant independent predictor of productivity change across all three measures. Comparing hierarchical models, well-being models performed significantly better than HRA models. The HRA added no incremental explanatory power over well-being in combined models. Alone, nonphysical health well-being components outperformed the HRA for all productivity measures. Well-being offers a more comprehensive measure of factors that influence productivity and can be considered preferential to HRA in understanding and addressing suboptimal productivity.

  19. Distributional changes of American martens and fishers in eastern North America, 1699-2001: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krohn, William B.

    2012-01-01

    Contractions in the geographic distributions of the American marten ( Martes americana) and fi sher ( M. pennanti) in eastern North America south of the St. Lawrence River between Colonial times (ca. 1650–1800) and the fi sher’s recent range expansion (ca. 1930–present) are well documented, but causal factors in these range contractions have only partially been studied. Traditional explanations for range contractions by both species are forest clearing and unregulated trapping; little consideration has been given to alternative explanations. It has been hypothesized that deep snow limits the distribution of fi shers, and that high fi sher populations limit the distribution of martens. I assessed the potential contributions of these factors to observed range contractions for these species by evaluating expected patterns of change in their historical distributions since Colonial times. Using published data on the distribution of martens and fi shers in eastern North America, including early and contemporary fur-harvest records ( n = 60,702), I found that broad-scale changes in their geographic distributions in eastern North America were consistent with 3 of those expectations, and partially so with a 4th. I recognize that retrospective analyses cannot establish the relative importance of land clearing, unregulated trapping, and changing climatic conditions on observed range contractions; nevertheless, when historical data from eastern North America are viewed in the context of long-term climate warming and the results of recent ecological studies, they suggest that traditional arguments may only partially explain historical range contractions for both species. This study further suggests that under a warming climate, northern range boundaries for the fi sher will expand, and southern range boundaries for the American marten will continue to contract.

  20. A test of cognitive mediation in a 12-month physical activity workplace intervention: does it explain behaviour change in women?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Pickering, Michael A; Rhodes, Ryan E; Courneya, Kerry S; Spence, John C

    2010-05-03

    Attempts to demonstrate the efficacy of interventions aimed at increasing physical activity (PA) have been mixed. Further, studies are seldom designed in a manner that facilitates the understanding of how or why a treatment is effective or ineffective and PA intervention designs should be guided by a heavier reliance upon behavioral theory. The use of a mediating variable framework offers a systematic methodological approach to testing the role of theory, and could also identify the effectiveness of specific intervention components. The primary purpose of this paper was to test the mediating role that cognitive constructs may have played in regards to the positive effect that a workplace behavioral intervention had on leisure-time PA for women. A subsidiary purpose was to examine the cross-sectional relationships of these cognitive constructs with PA behavior. The Physical Activity Workplace Study was a randomized controlled trial which compared the effects of stage-matched and standard print materials upon self-reported leisure-time PA, within a workplace sample at 6 and 12-months. In this secondary analysis we examined the mediation effects of 14 psychosocial constructs across 3 major social-cognitive theories which were operationalized for the intervention materials and measured at baseline, 6 and 12-months. We examined change in PA and change in the psychological constructs employing a mediation strategy proposed by Baron and Kenny for: (1) the first 6-months (i.e., initial change), (2) the second 6-months (i.e., delayed change), and (3) the entire 12-months (overall change) of the study on 323 women (n = 213 control/standard materials group; n = 110 stage-matched materials group). Of the 14 constructs and 42 tests (including initial, delayed and overall change) two positive results were identified (i.e., overall change in pros, initial change in experiential powerful intervention approaches processes), with very small effect sizes. However, these mediating

  1. A test of cognitive mediation in a 12-month physical activity workplace intervention: does it explain behaviour change in women?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pickering Michael A

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Attempts to demonstrate the efficacy of interventions aimed at increasing physical activity (PA have been mixed. Further, studies are seldom designed in a manner that facilitates the understanding of how or why a treatment is effective or ineffective and PA intervention designs should be guided by a heavier reliance upon behavioral theory. The use of a mediating variable framework offers a systematic methodological approach to testing the role of theory, and could also identify the effectiveness of specific intervention components. The primary purpose of this paper was to test the mediating role that cognitive constructs may have played in regards to the positive effect that a workplace behavioral intervention had on leisure-time PA for women. A subsidiary purpose was to examine the cross-sectional relationships of these cognitive constructs with PA behavior. Methods The Physical Activity Workplace Study was a randomized controlled trial which compared the effects of stage-matched and standard print materials upon self-reported leisure-time PA, within a workplace sample at 6 and 12-months. In this secondary analysis we examined the mediation effects of 14 psychosocial constructs across 3 major social-cognitive theories which were operationalized for the intervention materials and measured at baseline, 6 and 12-months. We examined change in PA and change in the psychological constructs employing a mediation strategy proposed by Baron and Kenny for: (1 the first 6-months (i.e., initial change, (2 the second 6-months (i.e., delayed change, and (3 the entire 12-months (overall change of the study on 323 women (n = 213 control/standard materials group; n = 110 stage-matched materials group. Results Of the 14 constructs and 42 tests (including initial, delayed and overall change two positive results were identified (i.e., overall change in pros, initial change in experiential powerful intervention approaches processes, with very

  2. The changing age distribution of prostate cancer in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neutel, C Ineke; Gao, Ru-Nie; Blood, Paul A; Gaudette, Leslie A

    2007-01-01

    Prostate cancer incidence rates are still increasing steadily; mortality rates are levelling, possibly decreasing; and hospitalization rates for many diagnoses are decreasing. Our objective is to examine changes in age distributions of prostate cancer during these times of change. Prostate cancer cases were derived from the Canadian Cancer Registry, prostate cancer deaths from Vital Statistics, hospitalizations from the Hospital Morbidity File. Age-standardized rates were calculated based on the 1991 Canadian population. A prevalence correction for incidence rates was calculated. Age-specific incidence rates increased until 1995 for all ages, but a superimposed peak (1991-94) was greatest between ages 60-79. After 1995, increases in incidence continued for the under-70 age groups. Prevalence correction indicated the greatest underestimation of incidence rates for the oldest ages, but was less in Canada than in the United States. Mortality rates increased until 1994, then levelled and slowly decreased; age-specific mortality rates showed the greatest increase for the oldest ages but the earliest downturn for younger age groups. While hospitalizations dropped drastically after 1991, this drop was confined to elderly men (70+). Dramatic changes in age distributions of prostate cancer incidence, mortality and hospitalizations altered age profiles of men with prostate cancer. This illustrated the changing nature of prostate cancer as a public health issue and has important implications for health care provision, e.g., the increased numbers of younger new patients have different needs from the increasing numbers of elderly long-term patients who now spend less time in hospital.

  3. Clinical improvements are not explained by changes in tendon structure on UTC following an exercise program for patellar tendinopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ark, Mathijs; Rio, Ebonie; Cook, Jill; van den Akker-Scheek, Inge; Gaida, James E; Zwerver, Johannes; Docking, Sean

    2018-04-11

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a 4-week in-season exercise program of isometric or isotonic exercises on tendon structure and dimensions as quantified by Ultrasound Tissue Characterization (UTC). Randomized clinical trial. Volleyball and basketball players (16-31 years, n=29) with clinically diagnosed patellar tendinopathy were randomized to a 4-week isometric or isotonic exercise program. The programs were designed to decrease patellar tendon pain. A baseline and 4-week UTC scan was used to evaluate change in tendon structure. No significant change in tendon structure or dimensions on UTC was detected after the exercise program, despite patellar tendinopathy symptoms improving. The percentage and mean cross-sectional area (mCSA) of aligned fibrillar structure (echo-types I+II) (Z=-0.414,p=0.679) as well as disorganized structure (echo-types III + IV) (Z=-0.370,p=0.711) did not change over the 4-week exercise program. Change in tendon structure and dimensions on UTC did not differ significantly between the groups. Structural properties and dimensions of the patellar tendon on UTC did not change after a 4-week isometric or isotonic exercise program for athletes with patellar tendinopathy in-season, despite an improvement of symptoms. It seems that structural improvements are not required for a positive clinical outcome.

  4. Identification of farmer characteristics and farm strategies explaining changes in environmental management and environmental and economic performance of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ondersteijn, C.J.M.; Giesen, G.W.J.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    In 1998, the Mineral Accounting System (MINAS) was introduced in The Netherlands. MINAS penalises farms with a levy if the farm nutrient surpluses exceed a certain threshold. The threshold is strict, meaning that most farmers need to change their environmental management and performance to avoid

  5. Do structural changes (eg, collagen/matrix) explain the response to therapeutic exercises in tendinopathy: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, Benjamin T; Smith, Toby O; Littlewood, Chris; Sturrock, Ben

    2014-06-01

    Previous reviews have highlighted the benefit of loaded therapeutic exercise in the treatment of tendinopathy. Changes in observable structural outcomes have been suggested as a possible explanation for this response to therapeutic exercise. However, the mechanism for the efficacy of therapeutic exercise remains unclear. To systematically review the relationship between the observable structural change and clinical outcomes following therapeutic exercise. An electronic search of AMED, CiNAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, PEDro and SPORTDiscus was undertaken from their inception to June 2012. Any study design that incorporated observable structural outcomes and clinical outcomes when assessing the effect of therapeutic exercise on participants with tendinopathy. Included studies were appraised for risk of bias using the tool developed by the Cochrane Back Review Group. Due to heterogeneity of studies, a qualitative synthesis was undertaken. Twenty articles describing 625 patients were included. Overall, there is a strong evidence to refute any observable structural change as an explanation for the response to therapeutic exercise when treated by eccentric exercise training. Moderate evidence does exist to support the response of heavy-slow resistance training (HSR). The available literature does not support observable structural change as an explanation for the response of therapeutic exercise except for some support from HSR. Future research should focus on indentifying other explanations including neural, biochemical and myogenic changes. Registered with PROSPERO, registration number CRD42011001638. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  6. Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

    2016-01-01

    Context. Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective. We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and...

  7. Explaining the evaporation paradox in Jiangxi Province of China: Spatial distribution and temporal trends in potential evapotranspiration of Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianghui Lu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Evaporation acts as an important component and a key control factor in land hydrological processes. In order to analyze the trend of change on potential evapotranspiration from 1961 to 2013 and to discuss the existence of the evaporation paradox in Jiangxi province, China, monthly meteorological data spanning the years 1961–2013 were analyzed in this study, where the data were collected from 15 national meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province. The Penman–Monteith equation was employed to compute the potential evapotranspiration (ET0. Spatial interpolation and data mining technology were used to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of ET0 and air temperature, with the effort to explain the evaporation paradox. By solving the total differential and the partial derivatives coefficients of the independent variables in Penman–Monteith equation, the cause of the paradox was quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that the annual ET0 had been decreasing significantly in Jiangxi Province since 1979, whereas the air temperature had been rising significantly, presenting the evaporation paradox. The decreases in sunshine duration and wind speed reduced ET0 by 0.207 mm and 0.060 mm, respectively, accounting for 92.3% and 26.7% of the total ET0, respectively. It is concluded that sunshine duration and wind speed are the main causes to the decrease in potential evapotranspiration in Jiangxi Province.

  8. Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

  9. An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Nassar, Matthew R.; Wilson, Robert C.; Heasly, Benjamin; Gold, Joshua I.

    2010-01-01

    Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision-making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects ...

  10. Imagining Change: An Integrative Approach toward Explaining the Motivational Role of Mental Imagery in Pro-environmental Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boomsma, Christine; Pahl, Sabine; Andrade, Jackie

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and other long-term environmental issues are often perceived as abstract and difficult to imagine. The images a person associates with environmental change, i.e., a person’s environmental mental images, can be influenced by the visual information they come across in the public domain. This paper reviews the literature on this topic across social, environmental, and cognitive psychology, and the wider social sciences; thereby responding to a call for more critical investigations into people’s responses to visual information. By integrating the literature we come to a better understanding of the lack in vivid and concrete environmental mental imagery reported by the public, the link between environmental mental images and goals, and how affectively charged external images could help in making mental imagery less abstract. Preliminary research reports on the development of a new measure of environmental mental imagery and three tests of the relationship between environmental mental imagery, pro-environmental goals and behavior. Furthermore, the paper provides a program of research, drawing upon approaches from different disciplines, to set out the next steps needed to examine how and why we should encourage the public to imagine environmental change. PMID:27909415

  11. An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Heasly, Benjamin; Gold, Joshua I

    2010-09-15

    Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects follow these principles under a range of conditions. We show that the influence of an outcome depends on both the error made in predicting that outcome and the number of similar outcomes experienced previously. We also show that the exact nature of these tendencies varies considerably across subjects. Finally, we show that these patterns of behavior are consistent with a computationally simple reduction of an ideal-observer model. The model adjusts the influence of newly experienced outcomes according to ongoing estimates of uncertainty and the probability of a fundamental change in the process by which outcomes are generated. A prior that quantifies the expected frequency of such environmental changes accounts for individual variability, including a positive relationship between subjective certainty and the degree to which new information influences existing beliefs. The results suggest that the brain adaptively regulates the influence of decision outcomes on existing beliefs using straightforward updating rules that take into account both recent outcomes and prior expectations about higher-order environmental structure.

  12. Does Glycosylation as a modifier of Original Antigenic Sin explain the case age distribution and unusual toxicity in pandemic novel H1N1 influenza?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishiura Hiroshi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A pandemic novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza virus has emerged. Most recently the World Health Organization has announced that in a country-dependent fashion, up to 15% of cases may require hospitalization, often including respiratory support. It is now clear that healthy children and young adults are disproportionately affected, most unusually among those with severe respiratory disease without underlying conditions. One possible explanation for this case age distribution is the doctrine of Original Antigenic Sin, i.e., novel H1N1 may be antigenically similar to H1N1 viruses that circulated at an earlier time. Persons whose first exposure to influenza viruses was to such similar viruses would be relatively immune. However, this principle is not sufficient to explain the graded susceptibility between ages 20 and 60, the reduced susceptibility in children below age 10, and the unusual toxicity observed. Methods We collected case data from 11 countries, about 60% of all cases reported through mid-July 2009. We compared sequence data for the hemagglutinin of novel H1N1 with sequences of H1N1 viruses from 1918 to the present. We searched for sequence differences that imply loss of antigenicity either directly through amino acid substitution or by the appearance of sites for potential glycosylation proximal to sites known to be antigenic in humans. We also considered T-cell epitopes. Results In our composite, over 75% of confirmed cases of novel H1N1 occurred in persons ≤ 30 years old, with peak incidence in the age range 10-19 years. Less than 3% of cases occurred in persons over 65, with a gradation in incidence between ages 20 and 60 years. The sequence data indicates that novel H1N1 is most similar to H1N1 viruses that circulated before 1943. Novel H1N1 lacks glycosylation sites on the globular head of hemagglutinin (HA1 near antigenic regions, a pattern shared with the 1918 pandemic strain and H1N1 viruses that circulated

  13. Changes in the dynamics of the cardiac troponin C molecule explain the effects of Ca2+-sensitizing mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Charles M; Rayani, Kaveh; Singh, Gurpreet; Lotfalisalmasi, Bairam; Tieleman, D Peter; Tibbits, Glen F

    2017-07-14

    Cardiac troponin C (cTnC) is the regulatory protein that initiates cardiac contraction in response to Ca 2+ TnC binding Ca 2+ initiates a cascade of protein-protein interactions that begins with the opening of the N-terminal domain of cTnC, followed by cTnC binding the troponin I switch peptide (TnI SW ). We have evaluated, through isothermal titration calorimetry and molecular-dynamics simulation, the effect of several clinically relevant mutations (A8V, L29Q, A31S, L48Q, Q50R, and C84Y) on the Ca 2+ affinity, structural dynamics, and calculated interaction strengths between cTnC and each of Ca 2+ and TnI SW Surprisingly the Ca 2+ affinity measured by isothermal titration calorimetry was only significantly affected by half of these mutations including L48Q, which had a 10-fold higher affinity than WT, and the Q50R and C84Y mutants, each of which had affinities 3-fold higher than wild type. This suggests that Ca 2+ affinity of the N-terminal domain of cTnC in isolation is insufficient to explain the pathogenicity of these mutations. Molecular-dynamics simulation was used to evaluate the effects of these mutations on Ca 2+ binding, structural dynamics, and TnI interaction independently. Many of the mutations had a pronounced effect on the balance between the open and closed conformations of the TnC molecule, which provides an indirect mechanism for their pathogenic properties. Our data demonstrate that the structural dynamics of the cTnC molecule are key in determining myofilament Ca 2+ sensitivity. Our data further suggest that modulation of the structural dynamics is the underlying molecular mechanism for many disease mutations that are far from the regulatory Ca 2+ -binding site of cTnC. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  14. Climate change and spatial distribution of vegetation in Colombia

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    Juan Carlos Alarcon Hincapie

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation change under two climate change scenarios in different periods of the 21st Century are modeled for Colombia. Vegetation for the years 1970 to 2000 was reproduced using the Holdridge model with climate data with a spatial resolution of 900 meters. The vegetation types that occupied the most territory were sub-humid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and Andean wet forest. These results were validated by comparing with the Colombian ecosystem map (SINA, 2007, which confirmed a high degree of similarity between the modeled spatial vegetation patterns and modern ecosystem distributions. Future vegetation maps were simulated using data generated by a regional climate model under two scenarios (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2007 for the periods 2011-2040 and 2070-2100. Based on our predictions high altitude vegetation will convert to that of lower altitudes and drier provinces with the most dramatic change occurring in the A2 scenario from 2070-2100. The most affected areas are the páramo and other high Andean vegetation types, which in the timeframe of the explored scenarios will disappear by the middle of the 21st Century.

  15. Genetic changes of MLH1 and MSH2 genes could explain constant findings on microsatellite instability in intracranial meningioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pećina-Šlaus, Nives; Kafka, Anja; Bukovac, Anja; Vladušić, Tomislav; Tomas, Davor; Hrašćan, Reno

    2017-07-01

    Postreplicative mismatch repair safeguards the stability of our genome. The defects in its functioning will give rise to microsatellite instability. In this study, 50 meningiomas were investigated for microsatellite instability. Two major mismatch repair genes, MLH1 and MSH2, were analyzed using microsatellite markers D1S1611 and BAT26 amplified by polymerase chain reaction and visualized by gel electrophoresis on high-resolution gels. Furthermore, genes DVL3 (D3S1262), AXIN1 (D16S3399), and CDH1 (D16S752) were also investigated for microsatellite instability. Our study revealed constant presence of microsatellite instability in meningioma patients when compared to their autologous blood DNA. Altogether 38% of meningiomas showed microsatellite instability at one microsatellite locus, 16% on two, and 13.3% on three loci. The percent of detected microsatellite instability for MSH2 gene was 14%, and for MLH1, it was 26%, for DVL3 22.9%, for AXIN1 17.8%, and for CDH1 8.3%. Since markers also allowed for the detection of loss of heterozygosity, gross deletions of MLH1 gene were found in 24% of meningiomas. Genetic changes between MLH1 and MSH2 were significantly positively correlated (p = 0.032). We also noted a positive correlation between genetic changes of MSH2 and DVL3 genes (p = 0.034). No significant associations were observed when MLH1 or MSH2 was tested against specific histopathological meningioma subtype or World Health Organization grade. However, genetic changes in DVL3 were strongly associated with anaplastic histology of meningioma (χ 2  = 9.14; p = 0.01). Our study contributes to better understanding of the genetic profile of human intracranial meningiomas and suggests that meningiomas harbor defective cellular DNA mismatch repair mechanisms.

  16. Key concepts and principles that explain changes in the provision of supports for intellectual and developmental disabilities in Spain

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    Miguel Ángel VERDUGO ALONSO

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The study focuses on the analysis of the central concepts that are influencing changes and transformations in the role of professionals and in the work done by organizations supporting people with intellectual and developmental disabilities in Spain. This includes the need for a global and systematic approach to the needs of the person, highlighting the importance of evidence to support professional, organizations and administrations decisions, and the influence that different systems (individual, family, organizational and social have in the life of the person. Finally, some conclusions are presented about the current moment and the immediate future.

  17. Why the 18.6 year tide cannot explain the change of sign observed in j2

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    F. Deleflie

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies show a change, starting in 1998, in the behavior of the variation of the dynamical flattening of the Earth (J2, supposed to be constant (secular, and mainly due to the post glacial rebound effect. In this paper, we study to what extent this behavior can be correlated or not with the 18.6 year tide: with more than twenty years of tracking data on LAGEOS-1, that is to say more than a period of 18.6 years, this effect can now be separated from the secular variation. We use our theory of mean orbital motion, dedicated to studies of the long period effects on the orbital motion. We build one single arc of LAGEOS-1 from 1980 to 2002, which provides a continuous description of the orbital parameters. This is the great originality of our approach. We focus our attention on the ascending node of LAGEOS-1, and we show that the change observed in j2 cannot be attributed to a statistical error due to a correlation, in short arcs results, between the secular variation of J2 and the 18.6 year tide. The proof is based on the adjustment of amplitudes and phases of the long period tides, and on the shape of the residuals.Key words. secular variation of J2, 18.6 year tide, mean orbital motione

  18. Using a model based fourth-corner analysis to explain vegetation change following an extraordinary fire disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, S E; Pickering, C M; Butler, S A; Letten, A D

    2016-11-01

    In ecosystems where large-scale disturbances are infrequent, the mode of succession may be difficult to discern and floristic surveys alone cannot be used determine the underlying processes causing vegetation change. To determine the causes of vegetation change in response to a large-scale fire event, we combined traditional floristic survey data, plant functional traits and environmental variables in a model-based solution to the fourth-corner problem. This approach allowed us to describe the trait-environment relationship and provides an intuitive matrix of environment by trait interaction coefficients. We could then quantify the strength and direction of associations between plant traits, species life-forms and environmental factors in two alpine plant communities over nine years post-fire. Initially, the fire drastically reduced vegetation cover and species density to very low levels. The fourth-corner analysis interaction coefficients indicated that over the course of the nine-year study a high abundance of graminoids, a low abundance of shrubs, tall species and those with high leaf dry matter content had the strongest associations with the two plant communities. We also found evidence for functional homogenisation between these two communities using this novel technique. Analysing plant traits and species responses post-fire in this manner can be used to infer the ecological processes driving shifts in vegetation.

  19. Macro-level drivers of multidimensional poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: Explaining change in the Human Poverty Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heath Prince

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Poverty is increasingly recognised as a multidimensional phenomenon in the development literature, encompassing not only income, but also a range of factors related to broadening an individual’s freedoms to live a life of their own choosing. Poverty so understood suggests that alternative approaches to poverty measurement reflecting this multidimensionality may point towards alternative policies for poverty alleviation. The imperative to reinforce pro-poor policy development in sub-Saharan Africa with evaluation findings that reflect improvements in well-being, rather than solely improvements in national economies, has become self-evident as, despite decades of market-led development policies, much of the subcontinent remains mired in deprivation. As recognised by the 2014 African Evaluation Association’s biannual conference, fresh thinking and new evaluation metrics are required in order to create policies that more effectively increase well-being. This article explores the factors that may account for changes in one metric of multidimensional poverty in developing countries, the United Nation Development Program’s Human Poverty Index (HPI, and will be primarily concerned with measuring the effects on the HPI of policies and activities that relate to, or are explicitly meant to encourage, economic growth, increased literacy and improved health. The study focuses on the outcomes of a panel data set, created for the purpose of this study, of HPI scores for a set of 47 sub-Saharan countries, between 1990 and 2010, and a range of indicators that the development literature and theory suggest should have an effect on income poverty, asking, what is the relationship between these indicators and multidimensional poverty? A parallel set of models has been developed to measure the response of household consumption expenditure to changes in economic growth and human capabilities indicators. All models are estimated using fixed effects estimators and

  20. Explaining the increase in family financial pressures from medical bills between 2003 and 2007: do affordability thresholds change over time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Peter J

    2011-06-01

    This study examines whether affordability thresholds for medical care as defined by families change over time. The results from two nationally representative surveys show that while financial stress from medical bills--defined as the percent with problems paying medical bills--increased between 2003 and 2007, greater out-of-pocket spending accounted for this increase only for higher-income persons with employer-sponsored insurance coverage. Increased spending did not account for an increase in medical bill problems among lower-income persons. Moreover, the increase in medical bill problems among low-income persons occurred at relatively low levels of out-of-pocket spending rather than at higher levels. The results suggest that "affordability thresholds" for medical care as defined by individuals and families are not stable over time, especially for lower-income persons, which has implications for setting affordability standards in health reform.

  1. The Diffusion of Global Models of Appropriate Leadership Behavior: Explaining Changing Leadership Priorities of High Ranking Public Managers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Morten Balle

    , which emphasizes the importance of diffusion and translation of global models of legitimate behavior. The hypothesis is that certain globally legitimated notions of good leadership gradually became more widespread among municipal senior managers from the start of the 1990s to the end of the 2000s....... The empirical analyses are based on multivariate regression analyses of survey data generated among Danish municipal senior managers in 1992, 2006 and 2008. The study clearly indicates that a change has taken place in leadership orientation among Danish municipal senior managers towards globally legitimated...... models of good leadership. Municipal senior managers orient themselves more towards leadership priorities that are recommended in the international literature on leadership. They have generally become more oriented towards production, development of relations, innovation and attention to the external...

  2. Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael; Heitmann, Berit L

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent changes in regional body fat distributions was examined. In total, 1,236 men and 1,201 women were included at baseline and participated in the Danish MONICA (MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease) study. A questionnaire was used to assess PA at 5 and 11 years after baseline examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). LTPA and OPA were associated with reduced subsequent 6-year changes in regional fat distribution for men. For women, no associations were observed in relation to WC; however, OPA seemed to increase HC among women. © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

  3. Vicariance, long-distance dispersal, and regional extinction-recolonization dynamics explain the disjunct circumpolar distribution of the arctic-alpine plant Silene acaulis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gussarova, Galina; Allen, Geraldine A; Mikhaylova, Yulia; McCormick, Laurie J; Mirré, Virginia; Marr, Kendrick L; Hebda, Richard J; Brochmann, Christian

    2015-10-01

    Many arctic-alpine species have vast geographic ranges, but these may encompass substantial gaps whose origins are poorly understood. Here we address the phylogeographic history of Silene acaulis, a perennial cushion plant with a circumpolar distribution except for a large gap in Siberia. We assessed genetic variation in a range-wide sample of 103 populations using plastid DNA (pDNA) sequences and AFLPs (amplified fragment length polymorphisms). We constructed a haplotype network and performed Bayesian phylogenetic analyses based on plastid sequences. We visualized AFLP patterns using principal coordinate analysis, identified genetic groups using the program structure, and estimated genetic diversity and rarity indices by geographic region. The history of the main pDNA lineages was estimated to span several glaciations. AFLP data revealed a distinct division between Beringia/North America and Europe/East Greenland. These two regions shared only one of 17 pDNA haplotypes. Populations on opposite sides of the Siberian range gap (Ural Mountains and Chukotka) were genetically distinct and appear to have resulted from postglacial leading-edge colonizations. We inferred two refugia in North America (Beringia and the southern Rocky Mountains) and two in Europe (central-southern Europe and northern Europe/East Greenland). Patterns in the East Atlantic region suggested transoceanic long-distance dispersal events. Silene acaulis has a highly dynamic history characterized by vicariance, regional extinction, and recolonization, with persistence in at least four refugia. Long-distance dispersal explains patterns across the Atlantic Ocean, but we found no evidence of dispersal across the Siberian range gap. © 2015 Botanical Society of America.

  4. Can the observed association between serum perfluoroalkyl substances and delayed menarche be explained on the basis of puberty-related changes in physiology and pharmacokinetics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huali; Yoon, Miyoung; Verner, Marc-André; Xue, Jianping; Luo, Man; Andersen, Melvin E; Longnecker, Matthew P; Clewell, Harvey J

    2015-09-01

    An association between serum levels of two perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and delayed age at menarche was reported in a cross-sectional study of adolescents. Because perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) have half-lives of years, growth dilution and the development of a new route of excretion (menstruation) could account for some or all of the reported association. To assess how much of the epidemiologic association between PFAS and delayed menarche can be explained by the correlation of growth and maturation with PFAS body burden. We developed a Monte Carlo (MC) physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of PFAS to simulate plasma PFAS levels in a hypothetical female population aged 2 to 20years old. Realistic distributions of physiological parameters as well as timing of growth spurts and menarche were incorporated in the model. The association between PFAS level and delayed menarche in the simulated data was compared with the reported association. The prevalence of menarche, distributions of age-dependent physiological parameters, and quartiles of serum PFAS concentrations in the simulated subjects were comparable to those reported in the epidemiologic study. The delay of menarche in days per natural log increase in PFAS concentrations in the simulated data were about one third as large as the observed values. The reported relationship between PFAS and age at menarche appears to be at least partly explained by pharmacokinetics rather than a toxic effect of these substances. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Stages of change model has limited value in explaining the change in use of cannabis among adolescent participants in an efficacious motivational interviewing intervention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupont, H.B.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Lemmens, P.; Kaplan, Charles; van de Mheen, Dike; de Vries, N.K.

    2017-01-01

    Previously, a Dutch randomized controlled trial evaluating an intervention aimed at changing adolescents’ cannabis use, called Moti-4, has shown its efficacy. A secondary analysis of the Moti-4 data investigated the process of change specified by the Stage of Change (SOC) model in cannabis use

  6. Stages of change model has limited value in explaining the change in use of cannabis among adolescent participants in an efficacious motivational interviewing intervention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dupont, H.B.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Lemmens, P.; Kaplan, C.D.; van de Mheen, D.; De Vries, N.K.

    2017-01-01

    Previously, a Dutch randomized controlled trial evaluating an intervention aimed at changing adolescents' cannabis use, called Moti-4, has shown its efficacy. A secondary analysis of the Moti-4 data investigated the process of change specified by the Stage of Change (SOC) model in cannabis use

  7. Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

    2016-03-01

    To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

  8. Neonatal changes in renal blood flow distribution in puppies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aschinberg, L.C.; Goldsmith, D.I.; Olbing, H.; Spitzer, A.; Edelmann, C.M. Jr.; Blaufox, M.D.

    1975-01-01

    The intrarenal distribution of blood flow was studied in 31 newborn mongrel puppies from 18 h to 70 days using xenon washout and krypton autoradiography. Mean renal blood flow increased from 0.39 +- 0.05 ml/g per min (SE) the 1st wk to 2.06 +- 0.12 ml/g per min at 6 wk. During the 1st wk of life the renal cortex was perfused homogeneously at 0.88 +- 0.19 ml/g min (SE) and accounted for 35 +- 4 percent of the renal blood flow. During the 2nd wk a narrow, rapidly perfused zone of outer cortex was identified which was perfused at 3.35 +- 0.26 ml/g per min, received 19.53 +- 5.05 percent of the total renal blood flow, and represented 15 +- 4 percent of the mass of the total cortex. The inner cortex and outer medulla at this time received 53.40 +- 4.12 percent of the flow at 1.07 +- 0.08 ml/g per min. Outer cortical flow increased with age reaching adult values by about 6 to 10 wk when the rapidly perfused area represented 40 +- 8 percent of the cortex. These changes are parallel to the results of previously reported studies with microspheres in newborn puppies and are compatible with the well-established maturational changes noted in neonates of several species. They represent the first gas-washout studies in animals during the first 6 wk of life

  9. Quantitative evaluation of radiation-induced changes in sperm morphology and chromatin distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubele, M.; Juetting, U.R.; Rodenacker, K.; Gais, P.; Burger, G.; Hacker-Klom, U.

    1990-01-01

    Sperm head cytometry provides a useful assay for the detection of radiation-induced damage in mouse germ cells. Exposure of the gonads to radiation is known to lead to an increase of diploid and higher polyploid sperm and of sperm with head shape abnormalities. In the pilot studies reported here quantitative analysis of the total DNA content, the morphology, and the chromatin distribution of mouse sperm was performed. The goal was to evaluate the discriminative power of features derived by high resolution image cytometry in distinguishing sperm of control and irradiated mice. Our results suggest that besides the induction of the above mentioned variations in DNA content and shape of sperm head, changes of the nonhomogeneous chromatin distribution within the sperm may also be used to quantify the radiation effect on sperm cells. Whereas the chromatin distribution features show larger variations for sperm 21 days after exposure (dpr), the shape parameters seem to be more important to discriminate sperm 35 dpr. This may be explained by differentiation processes, which take place in different stages during mouse spermatogenesis

  10. Quantitative evaluation of radiation-induced changes in sperm morphology and chromatin distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubele, M.; Burger, G.; Gais, P.; Juetting, V.; Rodenacker, K.; Hacker-Klom, V.

    1993-01-01

    Sperm head cytometry provides a useful assay for the detection of radiation induced damage in mouse germ cells. Exposure of the gonads to radiation is long known to lead to an increase of diploid and higher polyploid sperm and of sperm with head shape abnormalities. In the pilot studies reported here quantitative analysis of the total DNA content, the morphology, and the chromatin distribution of mouse sperm were performed. The goal was to evaluate the discriminative power of features derived by high resolution image cytometry in distinguishing sperm of control and irradiated mice. Our results suggest that besides the induction of the above mentioned variations in DNA content and shape of sperm head changes of the nonhomogeneous chromatin distribution within the sperm may also be used to quantify the radiation effect on sperm cells. Whereas the chromatin distribution features show bigger variations for sperm 21 days after exposure (dpr), the shape parameters seem to be more important to discriminate sperm 35 dpr. This may be explained by differentiation processes, which take place in different stages during mouse spermatogenesis. (authors). 25 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs

  11. Quantitative evaluation of radiation-induced changes in sperm morphology and chromatin distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubele, M; Burger, G; Gais, P; Juetting, V; Rodenacker, K [Gesellschaft fuer Strahlen- und Umweltforschung mbH Muenchen, Neuherberg (Germany); Hacker-Klom, V [Muenster Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenbiologie

    1994-12-31

    Sperm head cytometry provides a useful assay for the detection of radiation induced damage in mouse germ cells. Exposure of the gonads to radiation is long known to lead to an increase of diploid and higher polyploid sperm and of sperm with head shape abnormalities. In the pilot studies reported here quantitative analysis of the total DNA content, the morphology, and the chromatin distribution of mouse sperm were performed. The goal was to evaluate the discriminative power of features derived by high resolution image cytometry in distinguishing sperm of control and irradiated mice. Our results suggest that besides the induction of the above mentioned variations in DNA content and shape of sperm head changes of the nonhomogeneous chromatin distribution within the sperm may also be used to quantify the radiation effect on sperm cells. Whereas the chromatin distribution features show bigger variations for sperm 21 days after exposure (dpr), the shape parameters seem to be more important to discriminate sperm 35 dpr. This may be explained by differentiation processes, which take place in different stages during mouse spermatogenesis. (authors). 25 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs.

  12. A new ‘superassemblage’ model explaining proximal-to-distal and lateral facies changes in fluvial environments, based on the Proterozoic Sanjauli Formation (Lesser Himalaya, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananya Mukhopadhyay

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Facies analysis of fluvial deposits of the Proterozoic Sanjauli Formation in the Lesser Himalaya was combined with an architectural analysis. On this basis, a model was developed that may be applied to other fluvial systems as well, whether old or recent. The new model, which might be considered as an assemblage of previous models, explains lateral variations in architecture and facies but is not in all respects consistent with the standard fluvial models. The Sanjauli fluvial model is unique in that it deals with lateral facies variations due to shifts of the base-level along with fluctuations in accommodation space owing to changes in palaeoclimate.

  13. Computer jargon explained

    CERN Document Server

    Enticknap, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Computer Jargon Explained is a feature in Computer Weekly publications that discusses 68 of the most commonly used technical computing terms. The book explains what the terms mean and why the terms are important to computer professionals. The text also discusses how the terms relate to the trends and developments that are driving the information technology industry. Computer jargon irritates non-computer people and in turn causes problems for computer people. The technology and the industry are changing so rapidly; it is very hard even for professionals to keep updated. Computer people do not

  14. Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randin, C.; Engler, R.; Pearman, P.; Vittoz, P.; Guisan, A.

    2007-12-01

    Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In this study, we developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, we assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. We also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, we used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, we showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe B1 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the

  15. Northward shifts of the distributions of Spanish reptiles in association with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio; Pleguezuelos, Juan M; Pizarro, Manuel; Montori, Albert

    2012-04-01

    It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Can changes in psychosocial factors and residency explain the decrease in physical activity during the transition from high school to college or university?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyck, Delfien; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Deliens, Tom; Deforche, Benedicte

    2015-04-01

    When students make the transition from high school to college or university, their physical activity (PA) levels decrease strongly. Consequently, it is of crucial importance to identify the determinants of this decline in PA. The study aims were to (1) examine changes in psychosocial factors in students during the transition from high school to college/university, (2) examine if changes in psychosocial factors and residency can predict changes in PA, and (3) investigate the moderating effects of residency on the relationship between changes in psychosocial factors and changes in PA. Between March 2008 and October 2010, 291 Flemish students participated in a longitudinal study, with baseline measurements during the final year of high school and follow-up measurements at the start of second year of college/university. At both time points, participants completed a questionnaire assessing demographics, active transportation, leisure-time sports, psychosocial variables, and residency. Repeated measures MANOVA analyses and multiple moderated hierarchic regression analyses were conducted. Modeling, self-efficacy, competition-related benefits, and health-related, external and social barriers decreased, while health-related benefits and time-related barriers increased from baseline to follow-up. Decreases in modeling and time-related barriers were associated with a decrease in active transportation (adjusted R(2) = 3.2%); residency, decreases in self-efficacy, competition-related benefits, and increases in health- and time-related barriers predicted a decrease in leisure-time sports (adjusted R(2) = 29.3%). Residency only moderated two associations between psychosocial factors and changes in PA. Residency and changes in psychosocial factors were mainly important to explain the decrease in leisure-time sports. Other factors such as distance to college/university are likely more important to explain the decrease in active transportation; these are worth exploring in

  17. Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael

    2013-01-01

    examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. RESULTS: Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA......). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: LTPA and OPA were associated......BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. METHODS: The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent...

  18. Are depressive persons capable of describing changes in their reactions without being able to explain them? A proof of a cybernetic hypothesis of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibetseder, Max; Kamolz, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Many studies on the autobiographical memory and the explanation of reasons for success and failure proved that persons suffering from major depression tend to overgeneralize. This study examines the hypothesis that changes of reactions caused by a depressive disorder can be described by the affected persons but not explained. Persons suffering from major depression and persons with posttraumatic stress disorder or disturbance of accommodation with depressive mood (= reactive form of a depressive disorder) were presented with a list of modalities (behaviour, emotional and physical reactions) characteristic for depression. They were asked to identify modalities applicable to them and to describe and explain them. Their responses were analysed using a content analysis and assigned to the categories description and explanation. Persons with a major depression tended to use explanations or evaluations rather than descriptions for their depression-related modalities. Those persons suffering from a reactive form of depressive disorder tended to prefer evaluations. These results support the assumption that states of depression cause general descriptions of depression-relevant behaviour. The specific characteristics that have been perceived confirm the general concepts, which however make the patient prone to the respective selective perceptions. Persons suffering from a reactive form of depressive mood cannot be assumed to have this tendency of self-affirmation. Their depressive state may be maintained by perseverating general pessimistic schemes. It must however be conceded that it was not possible to control the physical comorbidity methodically and to take its effects into consideration, even though only persons without serious illnesses were included in the samples. This study did not verify whether other clinical groups, like patients suffering from anxiety, show the same patterns of explaining and describing their problems. It should furthermore be reviewed how other

  19. The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Held, Isaac; Chen, Gang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Levy, Hiram

    2011-09-01

    Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide-like (CO) tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower-tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step toward an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a "Diagnosed Precipitation Impact" (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change

  20. Self-adaptive change detection in streaming data with non-stationary distribution

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xiangliang; Wang, Wei

    2010-01-01

    Non-stationary distribution, in which the data distribution evolves over time, is a common issue in many application fields, e.g., intrusion detection and grid computing. Detecting the changes in massive streaming data with a non

  1. Changes in Vascular Plant Biodiversity in the Netherlands in the 20th Century Explained by their Climatic and other Environmental Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamis, W.L.M.; Van der Meijden, R.; Udo de Haes, H.A. [Nationaal Herbarium Nederland/Leiden University Branch, P.O. Box 9514, 2300, RA, Leiden (Netherlands); Van ' t Zelfde, M. [Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300, RA, Leiden (Netherlands)

    2005-09-01

    In the Netherlands nation-wide databases are available with about 10 million records of occurrences of vascular plant species in the 20th century on a scale of approximately 1 km{sup 2}. These data were analysed with a view to identifying relationships between changes in botanical biodiversity and climatic and other environmental factors. Prior to analysis the data were corrected for several major forms of survey bias. The records were broken down into three periods: 1902-1949, 1975-1984 and 1985-1999. Using multiple regression analysis, differences between successive periods were related to plant functional characteristics as explanatory variables. Between the periods 1902-1949 and 1975-1984 there were small but significant increases in the presence of both thermophilic ('warm') and psychrophilic ('cold') species. However, in the final decades of the 20th century there was a marked increase in thermophilic species only, coinciding with the marked increase in ambient temperature observed during this period, evidence at least of a rapid response of Dutch flora to climate change. Urbanisation was also examined as an alternative explanation for the increase in thermophilic plant species and was found to explain only 50% of the increased presence of such species in the final decades of the 20th century. Besides temperature-related effects, the most important change during the 20th century was a strong decline in oligotrophic and a marked increase in eutrophic plant species.

  2. Lifestyle-related factors that explain disaster-induced changes in socioeconomic status and poor subjective health: a cross-sectional study from the Fukushima health management survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masato Nagai

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Socioeconomic status (SES and lifestyle-related factors are determinants of subjective health. However, changes in SES are inevitable in times of natural disaster, while lifestyle-related factors remain modifiable. The aim of this study was to use a cross-sectional approach to examine lifestyle-related factors that may attenuate the negative impact of disaster-induced changes in SES on poor subjective health. Methods We analyzed 33,350 men and women aged 20–64 years who were living in evacuation zones due to the radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan. Disaster-induced changes in SES were defined by living arrangements and working conditions. Using Poisson regression analysis adjusted for confounders (model 1 and lifestyle-related factors as intermediate variables (model 2, we compared the prevalence ratios (PRs of poor subjective health of participants who did not undergo disaster-induced changes in SES (did not become unemployed, income did not decrease, and living in relative’s home/own home with that of participants who did undergo disaster-induced changes in SES (became unemployed, decreased income, or lived in an evacuation shelter, temporary housing, or rental housing/apartment. We calculated the percentage of excess risks explained by lifestyle-related factors as follows: ((PRmodel 1 − PRmodel 2/(PRmodel 1–1 × 100. Results Disaster-induced changes in SES were significantly associated with poor subjective health. The PRs (95% CIs among participants who underwent disaster-induced changes in SES were 2.02 (1.81–2.24 for men and 1.80 (1.65–1.97 for women. After adjusting for lifestyle-related factors, we found that the PRs in men and women were remarkably attenuated, decreasing to 1.56 (1.40–1.73 and 1.43 (1.31–1.55, respectively. Controlling for lifestyle-related factors resulted in PR attenuation by 45.1% (men and 46.3% (women. Satisfaction of sleep and participation in recreation and community

  3. Systolic blood pressure decline in very old individuals is explained by deteriorating health: Longitudinal changes from Umeå85+/GERDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidung, Bodil; Toots, Annika; Nordström, Peter; Carlberg, Bo; Gustafson, Yngve

    2017-12-01

    Declining systolic blood pressure (SBP) is common in very old age and is associated with adverse events, such as dementia. Knowledge of factors associated with SBP changes could explain the etiology of this decline in SBP. This study investigated longitudinal changes in socioeconomic factors, medical conditions, drug prescriptions, and assessments and their associations with SBP changes among very old followed individuals.The study was based on data from the Umeå85+/Gerontological Regional Database (GERDA) cohort study, which provided cross-sectional and longitudinal data on participants aged 85, 90, and ≥95 years from 2000 to 2015. Follow-up assessments were conducted after 5 years. The main outcome was a change in SBP. Factors associated with SBP changes were assessed using multivariate linear regression models.In the Umeå85+/GERDA study, 454 surviving individuals underwent follow-up assessment after 5 years. Of these, 297 had SBP measured at baseline and follow-up. The mean change ± standard deviation in SBP was -12 ± 25 mm Hg. SBP decline was associated independently with later investigation year (P = .009), higher baseline SBP (P < .001), baseline antidepressant prescription (P = .011), incident acute myocardial infarction during follow-up (P = .003), new diuretic prescription during follow-up (P = .044), and a decline in the Barthel Activities of Daily Living index at follow-up (P < .001).In conclusion, SBP declines among very old individuals. This decline seems to be associated with initial SBP level, investigation year, and health-related factors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Historical changes in the importance of climate and land use as determinants of Dutch pollinator distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Kissling, W.D.; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.; Wallis de Vries, Michiel; Reemer, Menno; Carvalheiro, Luísa G.

    2017-01-01

    Aim: Species distribution models are often used to project species distributions to different environmental conditions. However, most models do not consider whether the importance of abiotic factors may change over time. If they change, this has implications for the assessment of how abiotic changes

  5. Historical changes in the importance of climate and land use as determinants of Dutch pollinator distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Kissling, W.D.; Biesmeijer, J.C.; WallisDeVries, M.F.; Reemer, M.; Carvalheiro, L.G.

    2017-01-01

    Aim Species distribution models are often used to project species distributions to different environmental conditions. However, most models do not consider whether the importance of abiotic factors may change over time. If they change, this has implications for the assessment of how abiotic changes

  6. Can Bt maize change the spatial distribution of predator Cycloneda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cultivation of Bt crops is an important tactic in integrated pest management. The effect of Bt maize on arthropod predators needs to be investigated because of the important role of these natural enemies in the absence of target pests. The objective of the present study was to generate information on the distribution model of ...

  7. Distributed but Undefined: New Teacher Leader Roles to Change Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margolis, Jason; Huggins, Kristin Shawn

    2012-01-01

    This article examines teacher leader role development and definition by looking at one emergent model of distributed leadership: the hybrid teacher leader (HTL). HTLs are teachers whose official schedule includes both teaching K-12 students and leading teachers in some capacity. Participants included six HTLs across four school districts over 2…

  8. Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1984-01-01

    Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

  9. Conditions for Change Related to Groupware in a Distributed Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Jesper; Pors, Jens Kaaber

    2003-01-01

    general types of settings where the groupware has been used: Newly established organizational units, special interest groups, short term projects, and teams handling recurrent tasks. We characterize these settings and present the overall conditions that have proven to be critical to the deployment...... of groupware in the case. Challenges and expectations are discussed and ideas concerning strategies for change are suggested. It is concluded that change related to groupware faces conditions that challenge ambitious goals in three of the settings, while conditions in general favour successful change related...

  10. Are trends in billing for high-intensity emergency care explained by changes in services provided in the emergency department? An observational study among US Medicare beneficiaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Laura G; Wild, Robert C; Orav, E John; Hsia, Renee Y

    2018-01-01

    Objective There has been concern that an increase in billing for high-intensity emergency care is due to changes in coding practices facilitated by electronic health records. We sought to characterise the trends in billing for high-intensity emergency care among Medicare beneficiaries and to examine the degree to which trends in high-intensity billing are explained by changes in patient characteristics and services provided in the emergency department (ED). Design, setting and participants Observational study using traditional Medicare claims to identify ED visits at non-federal acute care hospitals for elderly beneficiaries in 2006, 2009 and 2012. Outcomes measures Billing intensity was defined by emergency physician evaluation and management (E&M) codes. We tested for overall trends in high-intensity billing (E&M codes 99285, 99291 and 99292) and in services provided over time using linear regression models, adjusting for patient characteristics. Additionally, we tested for time trends in rates of admission to the hospital and to the intensive care unit (ICU). Next, we classified outpatient visits into 39 diagnosis categories and analysed the change in proportion of high-intensity visits versus the change in number of services. Finally, we quantified the extent to which trends in high-intensity billing are explained by changes in patient demographics and services provided in the ED using multivariable modelling. Results High-intensity visits grew from 45.8% of 671 103 visits in 2006 to 57.8% of 629 010 visits in 2012 (2.0% absolute increase per year; 95% CI 1.97% to 2.03%) as did the mean number of services provided for admitted (1.28 to 1.41; +0.02 increase in procedures per year; 95% CI 0.018 to 0.021) and discharged ED patients (7.1 to 8.6; +0.25 increase in services per year; 95% CI 0.245 to 0.255). There was a reduction in hospital admission rate from 40.1% to 35.9% (−0.68% per year; 95% CI −0.71% to −0.65%; Pbilled as high intensity

  11. Can environmental improvement change the population distribution of walking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter, Jenna; Ogilvie, David

    2017-06-01

    Few studies have explored the impact of environmental change on walking using controlled comparisons. Even fewer have examined whose behaviour changes and how. In a natural experimental study of new walking and cycling infrastructure, we explored changes in walking, identified groups who changed in similar ways and assessed whether exposure to the infrastructure was associated with trajectories of walking. 1257 adults completed annual surveys assessing walking, sociodemographic and health characteristics and use of the infrastructure (2010-2012). Residential proximity to the new routes was assessed objectively. We used latent growth curve models to assess change in total walking, walking for recreation and for transport, used simple descriptive analysis and latent class analysis (LCA) to identify groups who changed in similar ways and examined factors associated with group membership using multinomial regression. LCA identified five trajectories, characterised by consistently low levels; consistently high levels; decreases; short-lived increases; and sustained increases. Those with lower levels of education and lower incomes were more likely to show both short-lived and sustained increases in walking for transport. However, those with lower levels of education were less likely to take up walking. Proximity to the intervention was associated with both uptake of and short-lived increases in walking for transport. Environmental improvement encouraged the less active to take up walking for transport, as well as encouraging those who were already active to walk more. Further research should disentangle the role of socioeconomic characteristics in determining use of new environments and changes in walking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  12. An ontological framework for requirement change management in distributed environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatoon, A.; Hafeez, Y.; Ali, T.

    2014-01-01

    Global Software Development (GSD) is getting fame in the software industry gradually. However, in GSD, multiple and diverse stakeholders are involved in the development of complex software systems. GSD introduces several challenges, i.e. physical distance, time zone, culture difference, language barriers. As requirements play a significant role in any software development. The greatest challenge in GSD environment is to maintain a consistent view of the system even if the requirements change. But at the same time single change in the requirement might affect several other modules. In GSD different people use terms and have different ways of expressing the concepts for which people at remote sites are unable to get uniformity regarding the semantics of the terms. In a global environment requires effective communication and coordination. However, to overcome inconsistencies and ambiguities among the team members and to make the team members aware of the consistent view, a shared and common understanding is required. In this paper an approach beneficial to software industry has been proposed, focusing on changing requirements in a Global Software Development environment. A case study has been used for the evaluation of the proposed approach. Therefore, Requirements change management process has been improved by applying the approach of the case study. The proposed approach is beneficial to the software development organizations where frequent changes occur. It guided the software industry to provide the common understandings to all the development teams residing in remote locations. (author)

  13. The changing age distribution in Indonesia and some consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, C B; Dasvarma, G L; Rahardjo, S P

    1991-08-01

    "Beginning with a discussion of the sources and quality of Indonesian age data by sex, this paper examines the changes in the functional age groups of the population of Indonesia from 1971 to the year 2005, and the implications of these changes for education, labour force participation, dependency ratios and fertility. Data for the period 1971 to 1985 are based on actual enumerations, while those for the period 1990 to 2005 are based on projections. Although the provisional totals of the 1990 Census had been released before the publication of this paper, their breakdown by age was still not available. The functional age categories discussed in the paper include the pre-school years, the primary and intermediate school ages, the teenage years, the reproductive ages of women, the principal working ages and the post-work years. It concludes with a discussion of various policy and planning implications of these changes." excerpt

  14. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. A Distributed Leadership Change Process Model for Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra; Harvey, Marina

    2017-01-01

    The higher education sector operates in an increasingly complex global environment that is placing it under considerable stress and resulting in widespread change to the operating context and leadership of higher education institutions. The outcome has been the increased likelihood of conflict between academics and senior leaders, presaging the…

  16. Rainfall distribution and change detection across climatic zones in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Bunmi Ogungbenro; Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo

    2014-01-01

    Nigerian agriculture is mainly rain-fed and basically dependent on the vagaries of weather especially rainfall. Nigeria today has about forty-four (44) weather observation stations which provide measurement of rainfall amount for different locations across the country. Hence, this study investigates change detection in rainfall pattern over each climatic zone of Nigeria. Data were collected for 90 years (1910–1999) period for all the weather observation stations in Nigeria, while a subdivisio...

  17. Increased volume of distribution for recombinant activated factor VII and longer plasma-derived factor VII half-life may explain their long lasting prophylactic effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathijssen, Natascha C J; Masereeuw, Rosalinde; Holme, Pal Andre; van Kraaij, Marian G J; Laros-van Gorkom, Britta A P; Peyvandi, Flora; van Heerde, Waander L

    2013-08-01

    Prophylaxis with plasma-derived or recombinant activated factor VII is beneficial in severe factor VII deficiency. To understand why prophylactic treatment with both products is efficacious, we conducted a pharmacokinetic study. Ten factor VII deficient patients were treated with either recombinant activated (20 μg/kg) or plasma-derived (25 IU/kg) factor VII in a cross-over design. Pharmacokinetic parameters were analyzed through activated factor VII activity, factor VII clotting activity, and factor VII antigen levels on depicted time points. Factor VII activity half-lifes, determined by non-compartmental and one-compartmental analysis (results in brackets), were shorter for recombinant activated (1.4h; 0.7h) than for plasma-derived factor VII (6.8h; 3.2h); both recombinant activated (5.1h; 2.1h and plasma-derived factor VII (5.8h; 3.2h) resulted in longer half-lives of factor VII antigen. Activated factor VII half-lives (based on activated factor VII activity levels) were significantly higher compared to factor VII clotting activity (1.6h; 0.9h). Volumes of distribution were significantly higher for activated factor VII (236 ml/kg; 175 ml/kg, measured by activated factor VII) as compared to plasma-derived factor VII (206 ml/kg; 64 ml/kg, measured by factor FVII activity), suggesting a plasma- and extracellular fluid distribution for recombinant activated factor VII. Recombinant activated factor VII showed significantly shorter half-lifes than plasma-derived factor VII. Volumes of distribution were significantly higher for treatment with recombinant activated factor VII. The longer half-life for plasma-derived factor VII, compared to recombinant activated factor VII, and the increased volume of distribution for recombinant activated factor VII, compared to plasma-derived factor VII may further elucidate the beneficial effect of prophylactic treatment of both products. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Generalization of Poisson distribution for the case of changing probability of consequential events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushnirenko, E.

    1995-01-01

    The generalization of the Poisson distribution for the case of changing probabilities of the consequential events is done. It is shown that the classical Poisson distribution is the special case of this generalized distribution when the probabilities of the consequential events are constant. The using of the generalized Poisson distribution gives the possibility in some cases to obtain analytical result instead of making Monte-Carlo calculation

  19. Response of spatial vegetation distribution in China to climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Shrestha, Nawal; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Tang, Zhiyao; Wang, Zhiheng

    2017-01-01

    Analyzing how climate change affects vegetation distribution is one of the central issues of global change ecology as this has important implications for the carbon budget of terrestrial vegetation. Mapping vegetation distribution under historical climate scenarios is essential for understanding the response of vegetation distribution to future climatic changes. The reconstructions of palaeovegetation based on pollen data provide a useful method to understand the relationship between climate and vegetation distribution. However, this method is limited in time and space. Here, using species distribution model (SDM) approaches, we explored the climatic determinants of contemporary vegetation distribution and reconstructed the distribution of Chinese vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) and Middle-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP). The dynamics of vegetation distribution since the LGM reconstructed by SDMs were largely consistent with those based on pollen data, suggesting that the SDM approach is a useful tool for studying historical vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change across time and space. Comparison between the modeled contemporary potential natural vegetation distribution and the observed contemporary distribution suggests that temperate deciduous forests, subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests, temperate deciduous shrublands and temperate steppe have low range fillings and are strongly influenced by human activities. In general, the Tibetan Plateau, North and Northeast China, and the areas near the 30°N in Central and Southeast China appeared to have experienced the highest turnover in vegetation due to climate change from the LGM to the present. PMID:28426780

  20. Auto-catalysed progression of aneuploidy explains the Hayflick limit of cultured cells, carcinogen-induced tumours in mice, and the age distribution of human cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasnick, D

    2000-06-15

    Evidence continues to accumulate that aneuploidy, an imbalance in the number of chromosomes, is responsible for the characteristic phenotypes of cancer, including the abnormal cellular size and morphology of cancer cells, the appearance of tumour-associated antigens, as well as the high levels of membrane-bound and secreted proteins responsible for invasiveness and loss of contact inhibition. Aneuploidy has also been demonstrated to be the self-perpetuating source of the karyotypic instability of cancer cells. Here it is shown that the auto-catalysed progression of aneuploidy explains the kinetics of the finite lifetime of diploid cells in culture, the time course of the appearance of papillomas and carcinomas in benzo[a]pyrene-treated mice, and the age-dependence of human cancers. Modelling studies indicate that the ease of spontaneous transformation of mouse cells in culture may be due to a chaotic progression of aneuploidy. Conversely, the strong preference towards senescence and resistance to transformation of human cells in culture may be the result of a non-chaotic progression of aneuploidy. Finally, a method is proposed for quantifying the aneuploidogenic potencies of carcinogens.

  1. Evidence-Based Identification of Key Beliefs Explaining Infant Male Circumcision Motivation Among Expectant Parents in Zimbabwe: Targets for Behavior Change Messaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montaño, Daniel E; Tshimanga, Mufuta; Hamilton, Deven T; Gorn, Gerald; Kasprzyk, Danuta

    2018-02-01

    Slow adult male circumcision uptake is one factor leading some to recommend increased priority for infant male circumcision (IMC) in sub-Saharan African countries. This research, guided by the integrated behavioral model (IBM), was carried out to identify key beliefs that best explain Zimbabwean parents' motivation to have their infant sons circumcised. A quantitative survey, designed from qualitative elicitation study results, was administered to independent representative samples of 800 expectant mothers and 795 expectant fathers in two urban and two rural areas in Zimbabwe. Multiple regression analyses found IMC motivation among fathers was explained by instrumental attitude, descriptive norm and self-efficacy; while motivation among mothers was explained by instrumental attitude, injunctive norm, descriptive norm, self-efficacy, and perceived control. Regression analyses of beliefs underlying IBM constructs found some overlap but many differences in key beliefs explaining IMC motivation among mothers and fathers. We found differences in key beliefs among urban and rural parents. Urban fathers' IMC motivation was explained best by behavioral beliefs, while rural fathers' motivation was explained by both behavioral and efficacy beliefs. Urban mothers' IMC motivation was explained primarily by behavioral and normative beliefs, while rural mothers' motivation was explained mostly by behavioral beliefs. The key beliefs we identified should serve as targets for developing messages to improve demand and maximize parent uptake as IMC programs are rolled out. These targets need to be different among urban and rural expectant mothers and fathers.

  2. Mexican plums (Spondias spp.): their current distribution and potential distribution under climate change scenarios for Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Arce-Romero, Antonio Rafael; Monterroso-Rivas, Alejandro Ismael; Gómez-Díaz, Jesús David; Cruz-León, Artemio

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Plums (Spondias spp.) are species native to Mexico with adaptive, nutritional and ethnobotanical advantages. The aim of this study was to assess the current and potential distribution of two species of Mexican plum: Spondias purpurea L. and Spondias mombin L. The method applied was ecological niche modeling in Maxent software, which has been used in Mexico with good results. In fieldwork, information on the presence of these species in the country was collected. In addition, environm...

  3. Natural selection in a population of Drosophila melanogaster explained by changes in gene expression caused by sequence variation in core promoter regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Mitsuhiko P; Makino, Takashi; Kawata, Masakado

    2016-02-09

    Understanding the evolutionary forces that influence variation in gene regulatory regions in natural populations is an important challenge for evolutionary biology because natural selection for such variations could promote adaptive phenotypic evolution. Recently, whole-genome sequence analyses have identified regulatory regions subject to natural selection. However, these studies could not identify the relationship between sequence variation in the detected regions and change in gene expression levels. We analyzed sequence variations in core promoter regions, which are critical regions for gene regulation in higher eukaryotes, in a natural population of Drosophila melanogaster, and identified core promoter sequence variations associated with differences in gene expression levels subjected to natural selection. Among the core promoter regions whose sequence variation could change transcription factor binding sites and explain differences in expression levels, three core promoter regions were detected as candidates associated with purifying selection or selective sweep and seven as candidates associated with balancing selection, excluding the possibility of linkage between these regions and core promoter regions. CHKov1, which confers resistance to the sigma virus and related insecticides, was identified as core promoter regions that has been subject to selective sweep, although it could not be denied that selection for variation in core promoter regions was due to linked single nucleotide polymorphisms in the regulatory region outside core promoter regions. Nucleotide changes in core promoter regions of CHKov1 caused the loss of two basal transcription factor binding sites and acquisition of one transcription factor binding site, resulting in decreased gene expression levels. Of nine core promoter regions regions associated with balancing selection, brat, and CG9044 are associated with neuromuscular junction development, and Nmda1 are associated with learning

  4. Economic Consequences of Fair Value Accounting and a Change in the Distribution Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Kochiyama, Takuma

    2011-01-01

    This research examines the economic consequences of fair value accounting and a change in the distribution rule. In Japan, fair value accounting for financial instruments was mandated from 2001, and unrealized revaluation profits were to be included in income statements. As an institutional correspondence to the change in accounting standards, Japanese Commerce Law implemented the deduction of revaluation profits from distributable profits. However, from 2006, the Japanese Company Act changed...

  5. Decomposition of Changes in Earnings Inequality in China: A Distributional Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Chi, Wei; Li, Bo; Yu, Qiumei

    2007-01-01

    Using the nationwide household data, this study examines the changes in the Chinese urban income distributions from 1987 to 1996 and from 1996 to 2004, and investigates the causes of these changes. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is applied to decomposing the mean earnings increases, and the Firpo-Fortin-Lemieux method based upon a recentered influence function is used to decompose the changes in the income distribution and the inequality measures such as the variance and the 10-90 r...

  6. Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, Aaron E; Broecker, Wallace S

    2017-05-01

    A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth's rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth's inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth's thermal equator, around which the planet's rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres.

  7. [Distribution of and changes in Danish traffic deaths].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerre, Johannes; Kirkebjerg, Peer Gregersen; Larsen, Lars Binderup

    2006-05-01

    Traffic accidents were the primary cause of death for Danes aged 15 to 24 years in 1999; per million inhabitants, that figure was 62% higher than in Great Britain. Reduction to the level in Great Britain would have reduced the number killed in traffic accidents in Denmark in 2002 from 465 to 289. The data used are from StatBank Denmark, the Danish Road Directorate and the Danish Transport Research Institute. The number of traffic deaths per billion kilometers driven was 57% higher in 1994 than in 2001. Those aged 65 and over had the largest decrease, with 67% fewer traffic deaths. Per billion kilometers driven, rural roads had around twice the number of traffic deaths as city streets and motorways. The geographic distribution showed few traffic deaths in the capital, Copenhagen, while the rest of the country had up to twice the number per 100,000 inhabitants from 1997 to 2002. Car drivers were well protected by seat belts, while people who were walking or on a motorcycle had high casualty rates per billion kilometers driven. 29% of the traffic deaths in Denmark in 2002 were registered as alcohol-related, while only 1% of drivers overall were influenced by alcohol. Men had twice the risk of traffic death compared with women per kilometer driven. Men were convicted in 93% of cases involving illegal blood alcohol level and 84% of cases involving other traffic offences. The greatest potential for reduction of traffic deaths seems to be traffic behaviour; females' behaviour, with rare drunk driving and few convictions for traffic offences, seems rational. If all drivers adhered to women's traffic behaviour, the number of road deaths in 1999 could have been reduced by 169, equivalent to 30%.

  8. Self-adaptive change detection in streaming data with non-stationary distribution

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xiangliang

    2010-01-01

    Non-stationary distribution, in which the data distribution evolves over time, is a common issue in many application fields, e.g., intrusion detection and grid computing. Detecting the changes in massive streaming data with a non-stationary distribution helps to alarm the anomalies, to clean the noises, and to report the new patterns. In this paper, we employ a novel approach for detecting changes in streaming data with the purpose of improving the quality of modeling the data streams. Through observing the outliers, this approach of change detection uses a weighted standard deviation to monitor the evolution of the distribution of data streams. A cumulative statistical test, Page-Hinkley, is employed to collect the evidence of changes in distribution. The parameter used for reporting the changes is self-adaptively adjusted according to the distribution of data streams, rather than set by a fixed empirical value. The self-adaptability of the novel approach enhances the effectiveness of modeling data streams by timely catching the changes of distributions. We validated the approach on an online clustering framework with a benchmark KDDcup 1999 intrusion detection data set as well as with a real-world grid data set. The validation results demonstrate its better performance on achieving higher accuracy and lower percentage of outliers comparing to the other change detection approaches. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  9. Measuring efficiency and productivity change (PTF) in the Peruvian electricity distribution companies after reforms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Reyes, Raul [Organismo Supervisor de la Inversion en Energia y Mineria, Osinergmin (Peru); Tovar, Beatriz [Infrastructure and Transport Research Group (EIT), Department of Applied Economics, University of Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2009-06-15

    This paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the electricity distribution companies in Peru, to assess whether reforms have improved the efficiency in this sector. The paper also identifies potential sources of productivity changes, based on market restructuring the electricity sector and changes in property. To do this, we rely on a set of data for 14 distribution companies, for the period 1996-2006. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the efficiency and productivity of electricity distribution in Peru have occurred, and that there is a relationship between the restructuring of distribution sector and the enhancement of productivity. (author)

  10. Measuring efficiency and productivity change (PTF) in the Peruvian electricity distribution companies after reforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Reyes, Raul; Tovar, Beatriz

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the electricity distribution companies in Peru, to assess whether reforms have improved the efficiency in this sector. The paper also identifies potential sources of productivity changes, based on market restructuring the electricity sector and changes in property. To do this, we rely on a set of data for 14 distribution companies, for the period 1996-2006. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the efficiency and productivity of electricity distribution in Peru have occurred, and that there is a relationship between the restructuring of distribution sector and the enhancement of productivity. (author)

  11. An Evaluation of Ad Hoc Presence-Only Data in Explaining Patterns of Distribution: Cetacean Sightings from Whale-Watching Vessels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa K. Higby

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of presence-only data is a problem in determining species distributions and accurately determining population sizes. The collection of such data is common from unequal or nonrandomised effort surveys, such as those surveys conducted by citizen scientists. However, causative regression-based methods have been less well examined using presence-only data. In this study, we examine a range of predictive factors which might influence Cetacean sightings (specifically minke whale sightings from whale-watching vessels in Faxaflói Bay in Iceland. In this case, environmental variables were collected regularly regardless of whether sightings were recorded. Including absences as well as presence in the analysis resulted in a multiple-generalised linear regression model with significantly more explanatory power than when data were presence only. However, by including extra information on the sightings of the whales, in this case, their observed behaviour when the sighting occurred resulted in a significantly improved model over the presence-only data model. While there are limitations of conducting nonrandomised surveys for the use of predictive models such as regression, presence-only data should not be considered as worthless, and the scope of collection of these data by citizen scientists using modern technology should not be underestimated.

  12. Future changes in South American biomass distributions, biome distributions and plant trait spectra is dependent on applied atmospheric forcings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langan, Liam; Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven

    2017-04-01

    It remains poorly understood why the position of the forest-savanna biome boundary, in a domain defined by precipitation and temperature, differs in South America, Africa and Australia. Process based Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are a valuable tool to investigate the determinants of vegetation distributions, however, many DGVMs fail to predict the spatial distribution or indeed presence of the South American savanna biome. Evidence suggests fire plays a significant role in mediating forest-savanna biome boundaries, however, fire alone appear to be insufficient to predict these boundaries in South America. We hypothesize that interactions between precipitation, constraints on tree rooting depth and fire, affect the probability of savanna occurrence and the position of the savanna-forest boundary. We tested our hypotheses at tropical forest and savanna sites in Brazil and Venezuela using a novel DGVM, aDGVM2, which allows plant trait spectra, constrained by trade-offs between traits, to evolve in response to abiotic and biotic conditions. Plant hydraulics is represented by the cohesion-tension theory, this allowed us to explore how soil and plant hydraulics control biome distributions and plant traits. The resulting community trait distributions are emergent properties of model dynamics. We showed that across much of South America the biome state is not determined by climate alone. Interactions between tree rooting depth, fire and precipitation affected the probability of observing a given biome state and the emergent traits of plant communities. Simulations where plant rooting depth varied in space provided the best match to satellite derived biomass estimates and generated biome distributions that reproduced contemporary biome maps well. Future projections showed that biomass distributions, biome distributions and plant trait spectra will change, however, the magnitude of these changes are highly dependent on the applied atmospheric forcings.

  13. Peri-Implant Distribution of Polyethylene Debris in Postmortem-Retrieved Knee Arthroplasties: Can Polyethylene Debris Explain Loss of Cement-Bone Interlock in Successful Total Knee Arthroplasties?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cyndari, Karen I; Goodheart, Jacklyn R; Miller, Mark A; Oest, Megan E; Damron, Timothy A; Mann, Kenneth A

    2017-07-01

    Loss of mechanical interlock between cement and bone with in vivo service has been recently quantified for functioning, nonrevised, cemented total knee arthroplasties (TKAs). The cause of interlocking trabecular resorption is not known. The goal of this study is to quantify the distribution of PE debris at the cement-bone interface and determine if polyethylene (PE) debris is locally associated with loss of interlock. Fresh, nonrevised, postmortem-retrieved TKAs (n = 8) were obtained en bloc. Laboratory-prepared constructs (n = 2) served as negative controls. The intact cement-bone interface of each proximal tibia was embedded in Spurr's resin, sectioned, and imaged under polarized light to identify birefringent PE particles. PE wear particle number density was quantified at the cement-bone interface and distal to the interface, and then compared with local loss of cement-bone interlock. The average PE particle number density for postmortem-retrieved TKAs ranged from 8.6 (1.3) to 24.9 (3.1) particles/mm 2 (standard error) but was weakly correlated with years in service. The average particle number density was twice as high as distal (>5mm) to the interface compared to at the interface. The local loss of interlock at the interface was not related to the presence, absence, or particle density of PE. PE debris can migrate extensively along the cement-bone interface of well-fixed tibial components. However, the amount of local bone loss at the cement-bone interface was not correlated with the amount of PE debris at the interface, suggesting that the observed loss of trabecular interlock in these well-fixed TKAs may be due to alternative factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

  15. All or none cell responses of Ca2+-dependent K channels elicited by calcium or lead in human red cells can be explained by heterogeneity of agonist distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, J.; Garcia-Sancho, J.; Herreros, B.

    1988-01-01

    We have studied the all or none cell response of Ca2+-dependent K+ channels to added Ca in human red cells depleted of ATP by incubation with iodoacetate and inosine. A procedure was used which allows separation and differential analysis of responding and nonresponding cells. Responding (H for heavy) cells incubated in medium containing 5 mM K lose KCl and water and increase their density to the point of sinking on diethylphthalate (specific gravity = 1.12) on centrifugation. Nonresponding (L for light) cells do not lose KCl at all. There is no intermediate behavior. Increasing the Ca concentration in the medium increases the fraction of cells which become H. No differences in the sensitivity to Ca2+ of the individual K+ channels were detected in inside-out vesicles prepared either from H or from L cells. The Ca content of H cells was higher than that of L cells. Cells depleted of ATP by incubation with iodoacetate and inosine sustain pump-leak Ca fluxes of about 15 mumol/liter cells per hour. ATP seems to be resynthesized in these cells at the expense of cell 2,3-diphosphoglycerate stores at a rate of about 150 mumol/liter cells per hour. Inhibition of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate phosphatase by tetrathionate increased 6-8 times the measured rate of uptake of external 45Ca. This was accompanied by an increase in the fraction of H cells. All or none cell responses of Ca2+-dependent K channels have also been evidenced in intact human red cells on addition of Pb. They have the same characteristics as those in responding and nonresponding cells. The detailed study of the kinetics of Pb-induced shrinkage of red cells suspended in medium containing 5 mM K showed that changes of Pb concentration changed not only the fraction of H cells but also the rate of shrinkage of responding cells. H cells generated by Pb treatment contained significantly more lead than L cells

  16. Could the long term cover change of three Mediterranean shrubs be explained by their photosynthetic responses to drought in a rainfall exclusion experiment ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberati, Dario; De Dato, Giovanbattista; Guidolotti, Gabriele; De Angelis, Paolo

    2013-04-01

    In the Mediterranean climates water stress is considered to be the main environmental factor limiting plant growth. In front of water limitations plants have developed a wide diversity of adaptation mechanism, and co-occurring species often display different physiological, functional, and life history strategies. In the contest of a rainfall exclusion experiment (project INCREASE), the present work is aimed to assess if the seasonal response of photosynthesis to the water stress (based on gas exchange data collected during 2010) can explain the long term change in the cover degree (assessed by seven pin point survey carried out from 2001 to 2012) of the three main species present in the Italian experimental site, Cistus monspeliensis L. (Cistaceae), Dorycnium pentaphyllum Scop. (Fabaceae) and Helichrysum italicum subsp. microphyllum (Willd.) Nyman (Asteraceae) From 2001 to 2012, in the untreated plots, the cover degree increased in C. monspeliensis (+ 0.34% per year), did not show any significant trend in D. pentaphyllum and decreased in H. italicum (- 1.54% per year). In the same period the rainfall exclusion system has worked during Spring and Autumn, mainly reducing the soil water content of the drought plots in Autumn: this treatment did not affect the cover trend of D. pentaphyllum and H. italicum, whereas C. monspeliensis displayed in the drought plots an opposite dynamic (- 1.23% per year) compared to the natural conditions. During 2010 all monitored species reached the maximum photosynthesis rates in spring, with a depression during summer drought and a recovery after the first Autumn rainfalls. The recovery of the spring rates was almost complete in C. monspeliensis and D. pentaphyllum, while in H. italicum did not exceed the 30% of the spring value. The rainfall exclusion reduced the photosynthesis rates in C. monspeliensis and H. italicum in Autumn. In the control plots the opposite cover trend observed in C. monspeliensis and H.italicum could be

  17. Explaining Away Intuitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Ichikawa

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available What is it to explain away an intuition? Philosophers regularly attempt to explain intuitions away, but it is often unclear what the success conditions for their project consist in. I attempt to articulate some of these conditions, taking philosophical case studies as guides, and arguing that many attempts to explain away intuitions underestimate the challenge the project of explaining away involves. I will conclude, therefore, that explaining away intuitions is a more difficult task than has sometimes been appreciated; I also suggest, however, that the importance of explaining away intuitions has often been exaggerated.

  18. Changes in Wage Distributions, Wage Gaps and Wage Inequality by Gender in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Richard U. Agesa; Jacqueline Agesa; Andrew Dabalen

    2009-01-01

    Using data from Kenya, the determinants of gender differences in the overall distribution of earnings are estimated as part of explaining the positive association between the return to measured and unmeasured human capital attributes as formalised by human capital theory (Mincer in 'Schooling Experience, and Earnings', New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Columbia University Press, 1974). The Kenyan data allows us to demonstrate that males possess relatively more human capital, and...

  19. Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan Zhao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs based on five general circulation models (GCMs downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5. The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the

  20. Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

    2015-08-01

    Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and

  1. An uncertainty importance measure using a distance metric for the change in a cumulative distribution function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chun, Moon-Hyun; Han, Seok-Jung; Tak, Nam-IL

    2000-01-01

    A simple measure of uncertainty importance using the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The entire change of CDFs is quantified in terms of the metric distance between two CDFs. The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, while most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution

  2. The heterozygous disproportionate micromelia (dmm) mouse: morphological changes in fetal cartilage precede postnatal dwarfism and compared with lethal homozygotes can explain the mild phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seegmiller, Robert E; Bomsta, Brandon D; Bridgewater, Laura C; Niederhauser, Cindy M; Montaño, Carolina; Sudweeks, Sterling; Eyre, David R; Fernandes, Russell J

    2008-11-01

    The disproportionate micromelia (Dmm) mouse has a mutation in the C-propeptide coding region of the Col2a1 gene that causes lethal dwarfism when homozygous (Dmm/Dmm) but causes only mild dwarfism observable approximately 1-week postpartum when heterozygous (Dmm/+). The purpose of this study was 2-fold: first, to analyze and quantify morphological changes that precede the expression of mild dwarfism in Dmm/+ animals, and second, to compare morphological alterations between Dmm/+ and Dmm/Dmm fetal cartilage that may correlate with the marked skeletal differences between mild and lethal dwarfism. Light and electron transmission microscopy were used to visualize structure of chondrocytes and extracellular matrix (ECM) of fetal rib cartilage. Both Dmm/+ and Dmm/Dmm fetal rib cartilage had significantly larger chondrocytes, greater cell density, and less ECM per unit area than +/+ littermates. Quantitative RT-PCR showed a decrease in aggrecan mRNA in Dmm/+ vs +/+ cartilage. Furthermore, the cytoplasm of chondrocytes in Dmm/+ and Dmm/Dmm cartilage was occupied by significantly more distended rough endoplasmic reticulum (RER) compared with wild-type chondrocytes. Fibril diameters and packing densities of +/+ and Dmm/+ cartilage were similar, but Dmm/Dmm cartilage showed thinner, sparsely distributed fibrils. These findings support the prevailing hypothesis that a C-propeptide mutation could interrupt the normal assembly and secretion of Type II procollagen trimers, resulting in a buildup of proalpha1(II) chains in the RER and a reduced rate of matrix synthesis. Thus, intracellular entrapment of proalpha1(II) seems to be primarily responsible for the dominant-negative effect of the Dmm mutation in the expression of dwarfism.

  3. Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

  4. Spatiotemporal changes of built-up land and population distribution patterns in China during 1990-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Y. H.; Liu, Y. L.; Yu, L. J.

    2017-02-01

    With the population growth, built-up land is expanding constantly in China. The paper aims to analyse spatiotemporal pattern of built-up land and population, and their relationship in China mainland from 1990 to 2010. With population census data and built-up land data, it calculates population density of counties, built-up surface proportion and population density by built-up land, as measures of population and built-up land distribution. The result shows that, the total population and built-up area have increased by 17.5% and 33.9%, respectively, in China mainland from 1990 to 2010. Meanwhile, the population density of built-up land has decreased by 12.0%, indicating that built-up land growth has outpaced population growth overall. However, such changes are not evenly distributed in space and time. Change in the later decade is much more significant than that in the earlier decade. For built-up land, the increases don’t show obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation. Correspondingly, most increases in population density of counties and population density of built-up area are in the northwest area, divided by Aihui-Tengchong line, while most decreases are in the southeast area. These analyses help to explain the overall impact of political-economic environment and the policy changes on urbanization processes for China mainland.

  5. Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

  6. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

    2010-01-01

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  7. Distribution of mean surface stable isotopes values in east Antarctica; observed changes with depth in coastal area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorius, C.; Merlivat, L.

    1975-01-01

    Mean samples of the snow accumulated during the last ten years have been collected at 48 stations distributed along a 850km long axis in East Antarctica, starting from Dumont d'Urville towards Vostok. Up to 1000m elevations the mean deuterium values are rather constant (-150 per thousand); then they decrease with various parameters (distance, elevation) and in particular with the mean annual temperatures, according to a linear relationship (D per thousand=6,04T(degC)-51) for a temperature range from -20 to -55 deg C. The observed D per thousand-O per thousand relationship is discussed. Measurements along a 303m deep core (down to the bedrock) obtained in the control area show very large D changes with mean values varying between -150 and -360 per thousand; this last value characterizes present surface snow deposited about 800km upstream. The observed D variations may be explained by changes in the site of origin of the ice; mechanisms which could explain the presence of ice originating from further distances above less distant origin layers are discussed [fr

  8. Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

    2008-01-01

    We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

  9. Late Quaternary climate-change velocity: Implications for modern distributions and communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalsgaard, Bo; Arge, Lars Allan

    a global map of climate-change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and used this measure of climate instability to address a number of classic hypotheses. Results/Conclusions We show that historical climate-change velocity is related to a wide range of characteristics of modern distributions...

  10. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...

  11. Distributed Leadership and Organizational Change: Implementation of a Teaching Performance Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloan, Tine

    2013-01-01

    This article explores leadership practice and change as evidenced in multiple data sources gathered during a self-study implementation of a teaching performance assessment. It offers promising models of distributed leadership and organizational change that can inform future program implementers and the field in general. Our experiences suggest…

  12. Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Nicole; Fisher, Jason T; Clevenger, Anthony; Paczkowski, John; Volpe, John

    2017-11-01

    Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human-derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large-scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species' local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack-expected to decrease with climate change-was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

  13. Marine distribution of arctic seabirds over six decades: changes and conservation applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wong, SNP; Johansen, Kasper Lambert; Lieske, DJ

    Climate change is causing rapid changes in Arctic marine ecosystems and understanding its impacts on wildlife is critical for conservation management, especially as the decline in sea ice leads to increased development and vessel traffic. The Arctic supports hundreds of millions of seabirds, which...... collected from 1988 to 2015 and covering a combined 185,000 linear km, we examined the marine distribution of seabirds in sub-arctic and Arctic waters between Canada and Greenland, an area covering over 5,000,000 km2. We developed a predictive model to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence...... the distribution of arctic seabirds in summer and autumn and identified existing areas of high density. Comparing these results to at-sea surveys conducted in the same waters from 1966 - 1987, we examined how seabird distribution has changed over the last six decades. Understanding how changes in the marine...

  14. The human cerebral cortex is neither one nor many: Neuronal distribution reveals two quantitatively different zones in the grey matter, three in the white matter, and explains local variations in cortical folding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro F. M. Ribeiro

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The human prefrontal cortex has been considered different in several aspects and relatively enlarged compared to the rest of the cortical areas. Here we determine whether the white and gray matter of the prefrontal portion of the human cerebral cortex have similar or different cellular compositions relative to the rest of the cortical regions by applying the Isotropic Fractionator to analyze the distribution of neurons along the entire anteroposterior axis of the cortex, and its relationship with the degree of gyrification, number of neurons under the cortical surface, and other parameters. The prefrontal region shares with the remainder of the cerebral cortex (except for occipital cortex the same relationship between cortical volume and number of neurons. In contrast, both occipital and prefrontal areas vary from other cortical areas in their connectivity through the white matter, with a systematic reduction of cortical connectivity through the white matter and an increase of the mean axon caliber along the anteroposterior axis. These two parameters explain local differences in the distribution of neurons underneath the cortical surface. We also show that local variations in cortical folding are neither a function of local numbers of neurons nor of cortical thickness, but correlate with properties of the white matter, and are best explained by the folding of the white matter surface. Our results suggest that the human cerebral cortex is divided in two zones (occipital and non-occipital that differ in how neurons distributed across their grey matter volume and in three zones (prefrontal, occipital, and non-occipital that differ in how neurons are connected through the white matter. Thus, the human prefrontal cortex has the largest fraction of neuronal connectivity through the white matter and the smallest average axonal caliber in the white matter within the cortex, although its neuronal composition fits the pattern found for other, non

  15. Species distributions and climate change - linking the past and the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levinsky, Irina

    Climate change is predicted to have a marked impact on biodiversity, and changes in the distributions of numerous species have already been correlated with ongoing climate change. Climatic oscillations, however, were also the rule during the Pleistocene, and a look to the past may therefore shed ...... conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, explore surrogates for the dispersal ability of African starlings and critically assess the tools I use and the assumptions behind them....

  16. The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Xun, Bin; Sun, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-01-01

    Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

  17. How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyderski, Marcin K; Paź, Sonia; Frelich, Lee E; Jagodziński, Andrzej M

    2018-03-01

    Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Portland, OR (United States); Yang, Y.; Huang, S. [Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Forest Management Branch; Tchebakova, N. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation). Sukachev Forest Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The Alberta climate model was used in conjunction with climate change scenario projections from 3 global circulation models to estimate the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine site productivity in Alberta. The modelling study demonstrated that mean growing degree days greater than 5 degrees C (GGD{sub 5}) were increased by 18 per cent, 38 per cent, and 65 per cent by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively. Changes in precipitation did not occur. A dryness index was used to predict productivity ranges and GDD{sub 5}. Results showed that productivity increased by 3 meters for each 30-year period. A large reduction in growing areas was also indicated. Initially, warming increased the potential growing range by 67 per cent by the year 2020. By 2080, growing ranges had decreased to 58 per cent of its current area. Changes in range should be considered when setting longer-term forest management plans. It was concluded that the increased risk of both insect and wildfire outbreaks must also be considered. 40 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  19. A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasgaard, Maya; Strange, Niels

    2013-01-01

    investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates...... the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change...... the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge...

  20. Plagiarism explainer for students

    OpenAIRE

    Barba, Lorena A.

    2016-01-01

    A slide deck to serve as an explainer of plagiarism in academic settings, with a personal viewpoint. For my students.Also on SpeakerDeck:https://speakerdeck.com/labarba/plagiarism-explainer-for-students(The slide viewer on SpeakerDeck is much nicer.)

  1. Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

    2017-06-01

    Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

  2. Explaining the policy impact of the 1991 and 2000 firework blasts in the Netherlands by the core of six policy change models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bressers, J.Th.A.; Lulofs, K.R.D.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the aftermaths of two firework-blasts from a policy change perspective. The causes of both disasters were completely identical. Both disasters were extensively investigated and findings disseminated. After a 1991 explosion hardly any change in policy occurred while

  3. Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, P.L.; Mallek, E.J.; King, R.J.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bollinger, K.S.; Derksen, D.V.

    2008-01-01

    Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

  4. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Casajus

    Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  5. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  6. Shifts in the microbial community structure explain the response of soil respiration to land-use change but not to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nazaries, Loïc; Tottey, William; Robinson, Lucinda

    2015-01-01

    Soil stores more carbon (C) than plants and atmosphere combined and it is vulnerable to increased microbial respiration under projected global changes including land-use change and future climate scenarios (mainly elevated temperature). Land-use change is known to have a direct impact on soil...... of this feedback response of Rs to global change. To identify the mechanisms of Rs response to land-use change and climate warming, we first investigated Rs from different land use types. Soil respiration was estimated seasonally from four different Scottish land uses: moorland, birch woodland, grassland and pine......, estimated by Multiplex Terminal-Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (MT-RFLP) and 454 pyrosequencing, was significantly different under each land use type. A strong correlation of Rs with soil properties (pH, inorganic N, C:N ratio and moisture) and with microbial community structure was identified...

  7. Financial Effect of a Drug Distribution Model Change on a Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turingan, Erin M; Mekoba, Bijan C; Eberwein, Samuel M; Roberts, Patricia A; Pappas, Ashley L; Cruz, Jennifer L; Amerine, Lindsey B

    2017-06-01

    Background: Drug manufacturers change distribution models based on patient safety and product integrity needs. These model changes can limit health-system access to medications, and the financial impact on health systems can be significant. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to determine the health-system financial impact of a manufacturer's change from open to limited distribution for bevacizumab (Avastin), rituximab (Rituxan), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). The secondary aim was to identify opportunities to shift administration to outpatient settings to support formulary change. Methods: To assess the financial impact on the health system, the cost minus discount was applied to total drug expenditure during a 1-year period after the distribution model change. The opportunity analysis was conducted for three institutions within the health system through chart review of each inpatient administration. Opportunity cost was the sum of the inpatient administration cost and outpatient administration margin. Results: The total drug expenditure for the study period was $26 427 263. By applying the cost minus discount, the financial effect of the distribution model change was $1 393 606. A total of 387 administrations were determined to be opportunities to be shifted to the outpatient setting. During the study period, the total opportunity cost was $1 766 049. Conclusion: Drug expenditure increased for the health system due to the drug distribution model change and loss of cost minus discount. The opportunity cost of shifting inpatient administrations could offset the increase in expenditure. It is recommended to restrict bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab through Pharmacy & Therapeutics Committees to outpatient use where clinically appropriate.

  8. Distributed power-law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the SW Hellenic ARC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tzanis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A region of definite accelerating seismic release rates has been identified at the SW Hellenic Arc and Trench system, of Peloponnesus, and to the south-west of the island of Kythera (Greece. The identification was made after detailed, parametric time-to-failure modelling on a 0.1° square grid over the area 20° E – 27° E and 34° N–38° N. The observations are strongly suggestive of terminal-stage critical point behaviour (critical exponent of the order of 0.25, leading to a large earthquake with magnitude 7.1 ± 0.4, to occur at time 2003.6 ± 0.6. In addition to the region of accelerating seismic release rates, an adjacent region of decelerating seismicity was also observed. The acceleration/deceleration pattern appears in such a well structured and organised manner, which is strongly suggestive of a causal relationship. An explanation may be that the observed characteristics of distributed power-law seismicity changes may be produced by stress transfer from a fault, to a region already subjected to stress inhomogeneities, i.e. a region defined by the stress field required to rupture a fault with a specified size, orientation and rake. Around a fault that is going to rupture, there are bright spots (regions of increasing stress and stress shadows (regions relaxing stress; whereas acceleration may be observed in bright spots, deceleration may be expected in the shadows. We concluded that the observed seismic release patterns can possibly be explained with a family of NE-SW oriented, left-lateral, strike-slip to oblique-slip faults, located to the SW of Kythera and Antikythera and capable of producing earthquakes with magnitudes MS ~ 7. Time-to-failure modelling and empirical analysis of earthquakes in the stress bright spots yield a critical exponent of the order 0.25 as expected from theory, and a predicted magnitude and critical time perfectly consistent with the figures given above. Although we have determined an approximate location

  9. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  10. On changing points of mean residual life and failure rate function for some generalized Weibull distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, M.; Goh, T.N.; Tang, Y.

    2004-01-01

    The failure rate function and mean residual life function are two important characteristics in reliability analysis. Although many papers have studied distributions with bathtub-shaped failure rate and their properties, few have focused on the underlying associations between the mean residual life and failure rate function of these distributions, especially with respect to their changing points. It is known that the change point for mean residual life can be much earlier than that of failure rate function. In fact, the failure rate function should be flat for a long period of time for a distribution to be useful in practice. When the difference between the change points is large, the flat portion tends to be longer. This paper investigates the change points and focuses on the difference of the changing points. The exponentiated Weibull, a modified Weibull, and an extended Weibull distribution, all with bathtub-shaped failure rate function will be used. Some other issues related to the flatness of the bathtub curve are discussed

  11. Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valdes, Raul; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Summary: A large proportion of the world's biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate the interaction between these two threats using empirical data. Here, we investigate interactions between climate change and land-use...... change in the future distribution of 23 dominant tree species in mainland Spain. We simulated changes up to year 2100 using a climate-dependent Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model, parameterized with colonization and extinction events recorded in 46 596 survey plots. We estimated that the distribution of 17......% of the habitat, was estimated to reduce species occupancies (relative to baseline projections) by an average of 23% if habitat loss was spatially clumped, and by 35% if it was scattered. If habitat loss occurred in areas already impacted by human activities, species occupancies would be reduced by 26%. Land-use...

  12. Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Seibert

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.

  13. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  14. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY IN CHANGING MARKET ENVIRONMENT : Case: Belgian Brewery Van Honsebrouck in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Louckx, Yulia

    2014-01-01

    The efficient distribution strategy formulation becomes vital to the success and survival of any organization, especially when it is involved in international trade. Today’s world is particularly challenging due to rapidly changing market conditions. Therefore, in order to able to compete, satisfy customers, and meet the needs of other stakeholders profitably, it is crucial for any company to make profound market environment analyses, react to changes in the market and adjust strategies accor...

  15. Income distribution impacts of changes in Western Area Power Administration electricity prices. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, A.; Frias, O. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Mineral Economics

    1993-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to present the methodology and results of an analysis of income distribution impacts associated with changes in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) marketing program. The focus will be on the distribution of personal income across eleven brackets in each of nine sub-regions of the WAPA market area. Moreover, these results will be translated into an assessment of the number of people who stand to gain or lose as a result of the policies and the size of these income changes. Most economic impact analyses are performed at an aggregate level. The results are typically presented in terms of net benefits, or a listing of changes in employment, output, income, or prices. What is neglected is the distribution of impacts across the affected population. These distributional impacts are important for several reasons. First, there is the normative judgmental issue of distributional justice, or equity. This addresses concerns about income disparities in general, or whether the poor, or any other group, are shouldering a disproportionate share of any burden or are failing to share significantly in any gain.

  16. Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

    2017-09-01

    This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medlock Jolyon M

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick’s geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21st century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.

  18. The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

    2018-01-01

    Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.

  19. The change in spatial distribution of upper trapezius muscle activity is correlated to contraction duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farina, Dario; Leclerc, Frédéric; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars; Buttelli, Olivier; Madeleine, Pascal

    2008-02-01

    The aim of the study was to confirm the hypothesis that the longer a contraction is sustained, the larger are the changes in the spatial distribution of muscle activity. For this purpose, surface electromyographic (EMG) signals were recorded with a 13 x 5 grid of electrodes from the upper trapezius muscle of 11 healthy male subjects during static contractions with shoulders 90 degrees abducted until endurance. The entropy (degree of uniformity) and center of gravity of the EMG root mean square map were computed to assess spatial inhomogeneity in muscle activation and changes over time in EMG amplitude spatial distribution. At the endurance time, entropy decreased (mean+/-SD, percent change 2.0+/-1.6%; Pgrid) root mean square was positively correlated with the shift in the center of gravity (R(2)=0.51, P<0.05). Moreover, the shift in the center of gravity was negatively correlated to both initial and final (at the endurance) entropy (R(2)=0.54 and R(2)=0.56, respectively; P<0.01 in both cases), indicating that subjects with less uniform root mean square maps had larger shift of the center of gravity over time. The spatial changes in root mean square EMG were likely due to spatially-dependent changes in motor unit activation during the sustained contraction. It was concluded that the changes in spatial muscle activity distribution play a role in the ability to maintain a static contraction.

  20. Distributional impacts of climate change mitigation in Indian electricity: The influence of governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Narasimha D.

    2013-01-01

    Studies that examine the distributional impacts of climate change mitigation policies often neglect the influence of institutions that implement these policies. This study examines the short-term consumption-side distributional impacts of expanding low-carbon electric supply in the state of Maharashtra, India with a focus on the influence of regulatory discretion in pricing. Households' welfare impacts from economy-wide electricity price shocks are simulated against a baseline that is calibrated to actual household economic and electricity service conditions, including actual electricity budgets, block tier prices and supply rationing. Industrial price impacts are propagated to households using a Leontief input–output analysis. Regulatory pricing decisions are evaluated based on social welfare metrics for economic efficiency and income inequality. The analysis reveals new linkages between climate change mitigation, electricity policy and income distribution. Low-income households can be shielded from mitigation impacts without losses in aggregate welfare to the extent that regulators can recover mitigation costs through industrial price increases. Regulators' flexibility to distribute costs across households is constrained by industrial customers' migration off the grid. Reduced supply interruptions to the rural poor from the resulting demand contraction are a potential co-benefit of mitigation. Distributional impacts, therefore, depend on other electricity policies that are driven by the political economy of the sector. - Highlights: • Indirect price increases harm most households less than residential price increases. • Regulators have flexibility to distribute mitigation costs across income groups. • Reduced supply interruptions are a potential co-benefit of mitigation

  1. Identification of Climate Change with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahayu, Anita

    2013-01-01

    Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.

  2. Change detection in polarimetric SAR data and the complex Wishart distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Schou, Jesper

    2001-01-01

    . Based on this distribution a test statistic for equality of two such matrices and an associated asymptotic probability for obtaining a smaller value of the test statistic are given and applied to change detection in polarimetric SAR data. In a case study EMISAR L-band data from 17 April 1998 and 20 May...

  3. Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

  4. Change Management in public sector: A case study of gas distribution firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Shirvani

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers different approaches for establishment of change management in governmental agencies. The proposed model of this paper uses Kotter’s 8-step method in an empirical investigation for a gas distribution firm located in province of Esfahan, Iran. The results of this study reveal that the organization was successful to create sense of urgency, form a powerful coalition, create a vision for change, communicate the vision, create short-term wins and build on the change. However, the organization was not successful on removing obstacles and changes in corporate culture. In addition, the sixth step, create short -term wins, receives the highest rate of success while removing the obstacles maintains the minimum rate of success. Finally, the survey demonstrates that gender and educational background do not have any impact on change management but age, job experience as well as job position influences change management, significantly.

  5. [Projection of potential geographic distribution of Apocynum venetum under climate change in northern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui-Feng; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Jia, Xiao-Guang; Li, Xiao-Jin

    2017-03-01

    Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant, its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month, annual mean air temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate, the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang, in the northern part of Gansu, in the southern part of Neimeng, in the northern part of Ningxia, in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi, in the southern part of Shanxi, in the middle and northern part of Henan, in the middle and southern part of Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070, the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  6. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanlong Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

  7. Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subhashni Taylor

    Full Text Available The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.

  8. Stability and change in the distribution of cytospecies of the Simulium damnosum complex (Diptera: Simuliidae) in southern Ghana from 1971 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Rory J; Cheke, Robert A; Boakye, Daniel A; Wilson, Michael D; Osei-Atweneboana, Mike Y; Tetteh-Kumah, Anthony; Lamberton, Poppy Hl; Crainey, J Lee; Yaméogo, Laurent; Basáñez, María-Gloria

    2013-07-13

    Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species that have been described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Ghana, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental change (e.g. deforestation), with potential disease consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in southern Ghana and report changes observed with reference to historical data collated from 1971 to 2005 and new identifications made between 2006 and 2011. Larvae were collected from riverine breeding sites, fixed in Carnoy's solution and chromosome preparations made. Cytotaxonomic identifications from 1,232 samples (including 49 new samples) were analysed. We report long-term stability in cytospecies distribution in the rivers Afram, Akrum, Pawnpawn and Pru. For the rivers Oda, Ofin and Tano we describe (for the first time) patterns of distribution. We could not detect cytospecies composition changes in the upper Pra, and the lower Pra seems to have been stable. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in the Volta Region seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. There has been a recent increase in the occurrence of savannah cytospecies in the river Asukawkaw, and this might be related to continuing deforestation. Cytospecies' distributions have not been stable from 1971 to 2011. Although there are no obvious causes for the temporary appearance and subsequent disappearance of cytospecies in a particular location, a major influence has been vector control and migration patterns, probably explaining observed changes on the Black Volta and lower Volta rivers. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savannah cytospecies in southern Ghana (1975

  9. Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2009-01-01

    We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible...... changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian...... Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa....

  10. Pathways of change explaining the effect of smoke-free legislation on smoking cessation in the Netherlands: an application of the international tobacco control conceptual model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagelhout, G.E.; de Vries, H.; Fong, G.T.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Thrasher, J.F.; van den Putte, B.; Thompson, M.E.; Cummings, K.M.; Willemsen, M.C.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: This study aims to test the pathways of change from individual exposure to smoke-free legislation on smoking cessation, as hypothesized in the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Conceptual Model. Methods: A nationally representative sample of Dutch smokers aged 15 years and older was

  11. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, Maja; Klok, Chris; Schekkerman, Hans

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in The Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  12. The ongoing decline of the breeding population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in The Netherlands is not explained by changes in adult survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roodbergen, M.; Klok, C.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa is a characteristic breeding wader of wet grasslands in the Netherlands which has suffered a strong population decline since the 1960s. Low breeding success has been implicated as the main driver of this decline and here we examine whether changes in adult

  13. What Explains the Correlation between Growth in Vocabulary and Grammar? New Evidence from Latent Change Score Analyses of Simultaneous Bilingual Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Erika; Quinn, Jamie M.; Giguere, David

    2018-01-01

    A close relationship between children's vocabulary size and the grammatical complexity of their speech is well attested but not well understood. The present study used latent change score modeling to examine the dynamic relationships between vocabulary and grammar growth within and across languages in longitudinal data from 90 simultaneous…

  14. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  15. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-12

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  16. Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tumiar Katarina Manik

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

  17. What's the Worst that Could Happen: A Veteran of the Climate Change Culture Wars Explains Why America Isn't Listening, and What to Do About It

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craven, G. A.

    2010-12-01

    In the Spring of 2007, high school science teacher Greg Craven posted a ten-minute whiteboard lecture on YouTube titled "The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See," in which he used a 2 x 2 grid to explore the relative risks of acting or not acting on climate change. Significantly, the conclusion he reached--that significant action should be taken immediately--did not rely on the actual science of climate change at all. Three years later, that video has been viewed over 8 million times, with no campaign, no money, and no organization--just the giving of the video's URL to Craven's 150 students on the last day of school. This example of the viral spread of a message through the Internet demonstrates the breathtaking speed with which the Power of One can act in the digital age. Spurred by criticisms of his argument (which Craven had invited, in the spirit of science), Craven spent several months reading tens of thousands of comments about his video, searching for every possible objection and counterargument that he could find. He eventually responded with a 7-hour series of videos on YouTube, updating the argument and addressing the criticisms. In the process, he became something of an expert in what--and how--the average American thinks about climate change. Craven then wrote the book "What's the Worst That Could Happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate," in which he proposes a process for the average lay person to use in order to decide the issue for themselves, without needing to decide which side in the debate to believe. The book is aimed squarely at the great unengaged majority--where the battle for action on climate change will ultimately be won or lost--in order to break their decision paralysis as they are overwhelmed with arguments from both sides of the debate. In this session, Craven will briefly share the grid of the original video that resonated with so many people, and will discuss the insights he's gained from debating online with the

  18. The effects of global change on the distribution, species richness and life history of European dragonflies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Kent

    2016-01-01

    traits such as taxonomy, habitat specificity, metabolic plasticity, and biogeographic traits such zoogeographical origin. In Paper I we describe how changes in species richness pattern across Europe correlate with range changes in different taxonomic and biogeographic groups of dragonflies. We found...... specialized species adapted to permanent running (perennial lotic) water habitats. We found that species reproducing in temporary water track climate changes better than species adapted to permanent water. In Paper III we explore the relationship between metabolic plasticity (expressed as the ability to shift...... with less metabolic plasticity. We conducted experimental ex-situ measurements of metabolic rates measured as respiration rates at 10°C and 20°C, respectively, of four Scandinavian dragonfly species. We used two species with a northern distribution, one with a southern distribution and one ubiquitous...

  19. Load sharing in distributed real-time systems with state-change broadcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Kang G.; Chang, Yi-Chieh

    1989-01-01

    A decentralized dynamic load-sharing (LS) method based on state-change broadcasts is proposed for a distributed real-time system. Whenever the state of a node changes from underloaded to fully loaded and vice versa, the node broadcasts this change to a set of nodes, called a buddy set, in the system. The performance of the method is evaluated with both analytic modeling and simulation. It is modeled first by an embedded Markov chain for which numerical solutions are derived. The model solutions are then used to calculate the distribution of queue lengths at the nodes and the probability of meeting task deadlines. The analytical results show that buddy sets of 10 nodes outperform those of less than 10 nodes, and the incremental benefit gained from increasing the buddy set size beyond 15 nodes is insignificant. These and other analytical results are verified by simulation. The proposed LS method is shown to meet task deadlines with a very high probability.

  20. Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianguo

    2016-01-01

    It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

  1. Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillings, Simon; Balmer, Dawn E; Fuller, Robert J

    2015-06-01

    There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more

  2. Changes in bacterial composition of biofilm in a metropolitan drinking water distribution system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revetta, R P; Gomez-Alvarez, V; Gerke, T L; Santo Domingo, J W; Ashbolt, N J

    2016-07-01

    This study examined the development of bacterial biofilms within a metropolitan distribution system. The distribution system is fed with different source water (i.e. groundwater, GW and surface water, SW) and undergoes different treatment processes in separate facilities. The biofilm community was characterized using 16S rRNA gene clone libraries and functional potential analysis, generated from total DNA extracted from coupons in biofilm annular reactors fed with onsite drinking water for up to 18 months. Differences in the bacterial community structure were observed between GW and SW. Representatives that explained the dissimilarity were associated with the classes Betaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes. After 9 months the biofilm bacterial community from both GW and SW were dominated by Mycobacterium species. The distribution of the dominant operational taxonomic unit (OTU) (Mycobacterium) positively correlated with the drinking water distribution system (DWDS) temperature. In this study, the biofilm community structure observed between GW and SW were dissimilar, while communities from different locations receiving SW did not show significant differences. The results suggest that source water and/or the water quality shaped by their respective treatment processes may play an important role in shaping the bacterial communities in the distribution system. In addition, several bacterial groups were present in all samples, suggesting that they are an integral part of the core microbiota of this DWDS. These results provide an ecological insight into biofilm bacterial structure in chlorine-treated drinking water influenced by different water sources and their respective treatment processes. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  3. [Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

    2013-05-01

    Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

  4. Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

    2017-05-01

    Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  5. Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

    2015-06-01

    The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.

  6. Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

    2015-01-01

    The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals. PMID:26078858

  7. Effect of the design change of the LSSBP on core flow distribution of APR+ Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kihwan; Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Hae-Seob; Kwon, Tae-Soon

    2014-01-01

    The uniform core inlet flow distribution of an Advanced Power Reactor Plus (APR+) is required to prevent the failure rate of the HIPER fuel assembly and improve the core thermal margin. KEPCO-E and C and KAERI proposed a design change of the Lower Support Structure Bottom Plate (LSSBP), since the core flow rates were intense near the outer region of the intact LSSBP in a previous study. In this study, an experiment was carried out to evaluate the effect of the design change of the LSSBP on the core flow distribution using the APR+ Core Flow and Pressure (ACOP) test facility. The results showed great improvement on the core flow distribution under a 4-pump balanced flow condition. Under the 4-pump balanced flow condition, fifteen tests were repeated using the ACOP test facility to verify the effect of the 50% blocked flow area at the outer region of the LSSBP on the core inlet flow distribution. The profiles of the core inlet mass flow rates were analyzed using ensemble averaged values, and compared with that of the intact LSSBP. The results showed great improvement for the overall core region. The change in design of the LSSBP is expected to improve the hydraulic performance of an APR+ reactor

  8. End plate marrow changes in the asymptomatic lumbosacral spine: frequency, distribution and correlation with age and degenerative changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Christine B.; Vande Berg, Bruno C.; Malghem, Jacques; Tavernier, Thierry; Cotten, Anne; Laredo, Jean-Denis; Vallee, Christian

    2004-01-01

    To investigate the frequency and distribution of end plate marrow signal intensity changes in an asymptomatic population and to correlate these findings with patient age and degenerative findings in the spine. MR imaging studies of the lumbosacral (LS) spine in 59 asymptomatic subjects were retrospectively reviewed by 2 musculoskeletal radiologists to determine the presence and location of fat-like and edema-like marrow signal changes about the end plates of the L1-2 through L5-S1 levels. The presence of degenerative changes in the spine was recorded as was patient age. Descriptive statistics were utilized to determine the frequency and associations of end plate findings and degenerative changes in the spine. Interobserver variability was determined by a kappa score. Binomial probability was used to predict the prevalence of the end plate changes in a similar subject population. The Fisher exact test was performed to determine statistical significance of the relationship of end plate changes with degenerative changes in the spine, superior versus inferior location about the disc and age of the patient population. Focal fat-like signal intensity adjacent to the vertebral end-plate was noted in 15 out of 59 subjects by both readers, and involved 38 and 36 out of 590 end plates by readers 1 and 2, respectively. Focal edema-like signal intensity adjacent to the vertebral end plate was noted in 8 out of 59 subjects by both readers and involved 11 and 10 out of 590 end plates by readers 1 and 2, respectively. Either fat or edema signal intensity occurred most often at the anterior (p<.05) aspects of the mid-lumbar spine and was seen in an older sub-population of the study (p<.05). End plate marrow signal intensity changes are present in the lumbar spine of some asymptomatic subjects with a characteristic location along the spine and in vertebral end plates. (orig.)

  9. Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xue; Ge, Xuezhen; Chen, Linghong; Zhang, Linjing; Wang, Tao; Shixiang, Zong

    2018-05-28

    Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N - 51° N and 74° E - 134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N - 53° N and 74° E - 134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  10. Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripszam, M; Gallampois, C M J; Berglund, Å; Larsson, H; Andersson, A; Tysklind, M; Haglund, P

    2015-06-01

    Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15°C and 4 mg DOCL(-1) and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18°C and 6 mg DOCL(-1), respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

    2017-09-01

    The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased

  12. Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslava Garza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

  13. The wireless internet explained

    CERN Document Server

    Rhoton, John

    2001-01-01

    The Wireless Internet Explained covers the full spectrum of wireless technologies from a wide range of vendors, including initiatives by Microsoft and Compaq. The Wireless Internet Explained takes a practical look at wireless technology. Rhoton explains the concepts behind the physics, and provides an overview that clarifies the convoluted set of standards heaped together under the umbrella of wireless. It then expands on these technical foundations to give a panorama of the increasingly crowded landscape of wireless product offerings. When it comes to actual implementation the book gives abundant down-to-earth advice on topics ranging from the selection and deployment of mobile devices to the extremely sensitive subject of security.Written by an expert on Internet messaging, the author of Digital Press''s successful Programmer''s Guide to Internet Mail and X.400 and SMTP: Battle of the E-mail Protocols, The Wireless Internet Explained describes and evaluates the current state of the fast-growing and crucial...

  14. Self-explaining roads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horst, A.R.A. van der; Kaptein, N.

    1999-01-01

    As a means to a sustainable safe traffic environment the concept of Self-Explaining Roads (SER) has been developed. The SER concept advocates a traffic environment that elicits safe driving behaviour simply by its design. In order to support safe driving behaviour and appropriate speed choice,

  15. Understanding Changes in the Distribution of Household Incomes in New Zealand Between 1983-86 and 1995-98

    OpenAIRE

    Dean Hyslop; Dave Maré

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of changes in the distribution of gross household income and income inequality over the period 1983–1998. The analysis applies a semiparametric approach to study the effects of changes in the distribution of household types, and changes in National Superannuation (old age pension), household socio-demographic attributes and employment outcomes, and in the “economic returns” to such attributes and employment outcomes on the distribution of income, and uses kerne...

  16. Geochemically induced shifts in catabolic energy yields explain past ecological changes of diffuse vents in the East Pacific Rise 9°50'N area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hentscher Michael

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The East Pacific Rise (EPR at 9°50'N hosts a hydrothermal vent field (Bio9 where the change in fluid chemistry is believed to have caused the demise of a tubeworm colony. We test this hypothesis and expand on it by providing a thermodynamic perspective in calculating free energies for a range of catabolic reactions from published compositional data. The energy calculations show that there was excess H2S in the fluids and that oxygen was the limiting reactant from 1991 to 1997. Energy levels are generally high, although they declined in that time span. In 1997, sulfide availability decreased substantially and H2S was the limiting reactant. Energy availability dropped by a factor of 10 to 20 from what it had been between 1991 and 1995. The perishing of the tubeworm colonies began in 1995 and coincided with the timing of energy decrease for sulfide oxidizers. In the same time interval, energy availability for iron oxidizers increased by a factor of 6 to 8, and, in 1997, there was 25 times more energy per transferred electron in iron oxidation than in sulfide oxidation. This change coincides with a massive spread of red staining (putative colonization by Fe-oxidizing bacteria between 1995 and 1997. For a different cluster of vents from the EPR 9°50'N area (Tube Worm Pillar, thermodynamic modeling is used to examine changes in subseafloor catabolic metabolism between 1992 and 2000. These reactions are deduced from deviations in diffuse fluid compositions from conservative behavior of redox-sensitive species. We show that hydrogen is significantly reduced relative to values expected from conservative mixing. While H2 concentrations of the hydrothermal endmember fluids were constant between 1992 and 1995, the affinities for hydrogenotrophic reactions in the diffuse fluids decreased by a factor of 15 and then remained constant between 1995 and 2000. Previously, these fluids have been shown to support subseafloor methanogenesis. Our

  17. Power distribution changes caused by subcooled nucleate boiling at Callaway Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konya, M.J.; Bryant, K.R.; Hopkins, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the results of an evaluation undertaken by Union Electric (UE) and Westinghouse to explain anomalous behavior of the core axial power distribution at the Callaway Nuclear Power Plant. The behavior was characterized by a gradual unexpected power shift toward the bottom of the core and was first detected during cycle 4 at a core average burnup of approximately 7,000 MWD/MTU. Once started, the power shift continued until burnup effects became dominant and caused power to shift back to the top of the core at the end of the cycle. In addition to the anomalous power distribution, UE observed that estimated critical control rod position (ECP) deviations increased to over 500 pcm (0.5%Δk/k) during Cycles 4 and 5. ECPs for plant restarts that occurred early in each cycle agreed well with measured critical conditions. However, this agreement disappeared for restarts that occurred later in core life. After analyzing relevant data, performing scoping calculations and reviewing industry experience, the authors concluded that the power distribution anomaly was most likely caused by subcooled nucleate boiling. Crud deposition on the fuel was believed to enhance the subcooled boiling. The ECP deviations were a secondary effect of the power shift, since void fraction, axial burnup and xenon distributions departed design predictions during a substantial portion of the fuel cycles. Significant evidence supporting these conclusions include incore detector indications of flux depressions between intermediate flow mixing (IFM) and structural grids. In addition, visual exam results show the presence of crud deposits on fuel pins

  18. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akiko Hirata

    Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  19. Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Miller, Susanne; Divoky, George J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

  20. Dynamic changes in Rad51 distribution on chromatin during meiosis in male and female vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, T; Plug, A W; Xu, J; Solari, A J; Reddy, G; Golub, E I; Ward, D C

    1995-10-01

    Antibodies against human Rad51 protein were used to examine the distribution of Rad51 on meiotic chromatin in mouse spermatocytes and oocytes as well as chicken oocytes during sequential stages of meiosis. We observed the following dynamic changes in distribution of Rad51 during meiosis: (1) in early leptotene nuclei there are multiple, apparently randomly distributed, foci that by late leptonema become organized into tracks of foci. (2) These foci persist into zygonema, but most foci are now localized on Rad51-positive axes that correspond to lateral elements of the synaptonemal complex. As homologs synapse foci from homologous axes fuse. The distribution and involvement of Rad51 foci as contact points between homologs suggest that they may be components to early recombination nodules. (3) As pachynema progresses the number of foci drops dramatically; the temporal occurrence (mice) and physical and numerical distribution of foci on axes (chickens) suggest that they may be a component of late recombination nodules. (4) In early pachynema there are numerous Rad51 foci on the single axis of the X (mouse spermatocytes) or the Z (chicken oocytes) chromosomes that neither pair, nor recombine. (5) In late pachynema in mouse spermatocytes, but not oocytes, the Rad51 signal is preferentially enhanced at both ends of all the bivalents. As bivalents in spermatocytes, but not oocytes, begin to desynapse at diplonema they are often held together at these Rad51-positive termini. These observations parallel observations that recombination rates are exceptionally high near chromosome ends in male but not female eutherian mammals. (6) From diakinesis through metaphase I, Rad51 protein is detected as low-intensity fluorescent doublets that localize with CREST-specific antigens (kinetochores), suggesting that Rad51 participates, at least as a structural component of the materials involved, in sister kinetochore cohesiveness. Finally, the changes in Rad51 distribution during meiosis

  1. Change detection in polarimetric SAR images using complex Wishart distributed matrices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Skriver, Henning

    In surveillance it is important to be able to detect natural or man-made changes e.g. based on sequences of satellite or air borne images of the same area taken at different times. The mapping capability of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is independent of e.g. cloud cover, and thus this technology...... scattering matrix, and after suitable preprocessing the outcome at each picture element (pixel) may be represented as a 3 by 3 Hermitian matrix following a complex Wishart distribution. One approach to solving the change detection problem based on SAR images is therefore to apply suitable statistical tests...... in the complex Wishart distribution. We propose a set-up for a systematic solution to the (practical) problems using the likelihood ratio test statistics. We show some examples based on a time series of images with 1024 by 1024 pixels....

  2. Headache under simulated microgravity is related to endocrine, fluid distribution, and tight junction changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuerecker, Matthias; van Oosterhout, Willebrordus P J; Feuerecker, Benedikt; Matzel, Sandra; Schelling, Gustav; Rehm, Markus; Vein, Alla A; Choukèr, Alexander

    2016-05-01

    Head-down-tilted bed rest (HDTBR) induces headaches similar to headaches during space flights. The objective of this investigation was to study hematological, endocrinological, fluid changes and tight junctions in HDTBR-induced headaches as a proxy for space headache. The randomized crossover HDTBR design by the European Space Agency included 12 healthy, nonheadache male subjects. Before, during, and after confined HDTBR periods, epinephrine (urine), cortisol (saliva), hematological, endothelium markers, and fluid distribution parameters were measured. Headaches were assessed with a validated headache questionnaire. Compared with baseline, HDTBR in all subjects was associated with higher hematocrit, hemoglobin, and epinephrine levels, higher erythrocyte counts, and lower relative plasma volumes (all P zonulin was elevated (vs headache-free subjects in HDTBR days 1, 3, 5; P < 0.05). HDTBR induces hemoconcentration and fluid redistribution in all subjects. During headache episodes, endocrinological changes, fluid distribution, and tight junctions were more pronounced, suggesting an additional role in headache pathophysiology.

  3. The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Breugel, Paulo

    and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...... and how this is likely to change under different climate change scenarios. Chapter 4 presents an environmental gap analysis to prioritize conservation efforts in eastern Africa, based on an evaluation of the environmental representativeness of protected areas and an assessment of the level of threat...... distribution in eastern African, examine how this may change under future climates, and how this can be used to identify conservation priorities in the region. Chapter 1 presents a brief overview of the concept of the potential natural vegetation (PNV), synthesizes the general findings and discusses future...

  4. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

  5. Distributed Leadership in Organizational Change Processes: A Qualitative Study in Public Hospital Units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Anne Mette; Jonasson, Charlotte; Ovesen, Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes that the emergence and boundaries of distributed leadership (DL) are developed in a dynamic interplay with planned as well as emergent organizational change. The empirical findings are based on a qualitative, longitudinal case study with interviews conducted at two different....../non-routine, various goals, and organizational planning affect a simultaneous widening or restriction of the local DL. In return, such local DL also leads to ongoing changes in the form of novel work routines for improved collaboration. Moreover, the findings show that restrictions of DL are in some cases considered...

  6. Distribution law of temperature changes during methane adsorption and desorption in coal using infrared thermography technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dong; Chen, Hao; An, Jiangfei; Zhou, Dong; Feng, Zengchao

    2018-05-01

    Gas adsorption and desorption is a thermodynamic process that takes place within coal as temperature changes and that is related to methane (CH4) storage. As infrared thermographic technology has been applied in this context to measure surface temperature changes, the aim of this research was to further elucidate the distribution law underlying this process as well as the thermal effects induced by heat adsorption and desorption in coal. Specimens of two different coal ranks were used in this study, and the surface temperature changes seen in the latter were detected. A contour line map was then drawn on the basis of initial results enabling a distribution law of temperature changes for samples. The results show that different regions of coal sample surfaces exhibit different heating rates during the adsorption process, but they all depends on gas storage capacity to a certain extent. It proposes a correlation coefficient that expresses the relationship between temperature change and gas adsorption capacity that could also be used to evaluate the feasibility of coalbed CH4 extraction in the field. And finally, this study is deduced a method to reveal the actual adsorption capacity of coal or CH4 reservoirs in in situ coal seams.

  7. Change detection in full and dual polarization sar data and the complex wishart distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning

    A test statistic for equality of two complex variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated probability of observing a smaller value of the test statistic is sketched. We demonstrate the use of the test statistic and the associated probability measure f...... for change detection in both full and dual polarimetry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected by the Danish EMISAR system....

  8. Technical change and efficiency measures. The post-privatisation in the gas distribution sector in Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, M.A.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we use a stochastic frontier approach to analyse the technical change in the post-privatisation period in the gas distribution sector in Argentina. We found that there is both a catching up effect and a shift in the frontier, which shows that the sector as a whole improved its efficiency in the reviewed period. Moreover, this phenomenon holds not only for the average but also for every firm in the sample

  9. Addressing Neuroplastic Changes in Distributed Areas of the Nervous System Associated With Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, René; Higgins, Johanne; Bourbonnais, Daniel

    2015-11-01

    Present interventions utilized in musculoskeletal rehabilitation are guided, in large part, by a biomedical model where peripheral structural injury is believed to be the sole driver of the disorder. There are, however, neurophysiological changes across different areas of the peripheral and central nervous systems, including peripheral receptors, dorsal horn of the spinal cord, brain stem, sensorimotor cortical areas, and the mesolimbic and prefrontal areas associated with chronic musculoskeletal disorders, including chronic low back pain, osteoarthritis, and tendon injuries. These neurophysiological changes appear not only to be a consequence of peripheral structural injury but also to play a part in the pathophysiology of chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Neurophysiological changes are consistent with a biopsychosocial formulation reflecting the underlying mechanisms associated with sensory and motor findings, psychological traits, and perceptual changes associated with chronic musculoskeletal conditions. These changes, therefore, have important implications in the clinical manifestation, pathophysiology, and treatment of chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Musculoskeletal rehabilitation professionals have at their disposal tools to address these neuroplastic changes, including top-down cognitive-based interventions (eg, education, cognitive-behavioral therapy, mindfulness meditation, motor imagery) and bottom-up physical interventions (eg, motor learning, peripheral sensory stimulation, manual therapy) that induce neuroplastic changes across distributed areas of the nervous system and affect outcomes in patients with chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Furthermore, novel approaches such as the use of transcranial direct current stimulation and repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation may be utilized to help renormalize neurological function. Comprehensive treatment addressing peripheral structural injury as well as neurophysiological changes occurring across

  10. What explains the correlation between growth in vocabulary and grammar? New evidence from latent change score analyses of simultaneous bilingual development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Erika; Quinn, Jamie M; Giguere, David

    2018-03-01

    A close relationship between children's vocabulary size and the grammatical complexity of their speech is well attested but not well understood. The present study used latent change score modeling to examine the dynamic relationships between vocabulary and grammar growth within and across languages in longitudinal data from 90 simultaneous Spanish-English bilingual children who were assessed at 6-month intervals between 30 and 48 months. Slopes of vocabulary and grammar growth were strongly correlated within each language and showed moderate or nonsignificant relationships across languages. There was no evidence that vocabulary level predicted subsequent grammar growth or that the level of grammatical development predicted subsequent vocabulary growth. We propose that a common influence of properties of input on vocabulary and grammatical development is the source of their correlated but uncoupled growth. An unanticipated across-language finding was a negative relationship between level of English skill and subsequent Spanish growth. We propose that the cultural context of Spanish-English bilingualism in the US is the reason that strong English skills jeopardize Spanish language growth, while Spanish skills do not affect English growth. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at: https://youtu.be/qEHSQ0yRre0. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Physical mechanism causing rapid changes in ultrarelativistic electron pitch angle distributions right after a shock arrival: Evaluation of an electron dropout event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.-J.; Li, W.; Thorne, R. M.; Angelopoulos, V.; Ma, Q.; Li, J.; Bortnik, J.; Nishimura, Y.; Chen, L.; Baker, D. N.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.

    2016-09-01

    Three mechanisms have been proposed to explain relativistic electron flux depletions (dropouts) in the Earth's outer radiation belt during storm times: adiabatic expansion of electron drift shells due to a decrease in magnetic field strength, magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial diffusion, and precipitation into the atmosphere (driven by EMIC wave scattering). Which mechanism predominates in causing electron dropouts commonly observed in the outer radiation belt is still debatable. In the present study, we evaluate the physical mechanism that may be primarily responsible for causing the sudden change in relativistic electron pitch angle distributions during a dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes during the main phase of the 27 February 2014 storm. During this event, the phase space density of ultrarelativistic (>1 MeV) electrons was depleted by more than 1 order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the outer radiation belt (3 pitch angle distribution under a compressed magnetic field topology based on actual solar wind conditions. Although these ultrarelativistic electrons exhibit highly anisotropic (peaked in 90°), energy-dependent pitch angle distributions, which appear to be associated with the typical EMIC wave scattering, comparison of the modeled electron distribution to electron measurements indicates that drift shell splitting is responsible for this rapid change in electron pitch angle distributions. This further indicates that magnetopause loss is the predominant cause of the electron dropout right after the shock arrival.

  12. Physical mechanism causing rapid changes in ultrarelativistic electron pitch angle distributions right after a shock arrival: Evaluation of an electron dropout event: Drift Shell Splitting on the Dayside

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, X.-J.; University of California, Los Angeles, CA; Li, W.; Boston University, MA; Thorne, R. M.

    2016-01-01

    Three mechanisms have been proposed to explain relativistic electron flux depletions (dropouts) in the Earth's outer radiation belt during storm times: adiabatic expansion of electron drift shells due to a decrease in magnetic field strength, magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial diffusion, and precipitation into the atmosphere (driven by EMIC wave scattering). Which mechanism predominates in causing electron dropouts commonly observed in the outer radiation belt is still debatable. In the present study, we evaluate the physical mechanism that may be primarily responsible for causing the sudden change in relativistic electron pitch angle distributions during a dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes during the main phase of the 27 February 2014 storm. During this event, the phase space density of ultrarelativistic (>1MeV) electrons was depleted by more than 1 order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the outer radiation belt (3 < L* < 5) in less than 6 h after the passage of an interplanetary shock. We model the electron pitch angle distribution under a compressed magnetic field topology based on actual solar wind conditions. Although these ultrarelativistic electrons exhibit highly anisotropic (peaked in 90°), energy-dependent pitch angle distributions, which appear to be associated with the typical EMIC wave scattering, comparison of the modeled electron distribution to electron measurements indicates that drift shell splitting is responsible for this rapid change in electron pitch angle distributions. This further indicates that magnetopause loss is the predominant cause of the electron dropout right after the shock arrival.

  13. Perceiving, explaining, and observing climatic changes. An historical case study of the ''year without a summer'' 1816

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodenmann, Tom; Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude [ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Environmental Decisions; Broennimann, Stefan [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Inst of Geography; Krueger, Tobias [Staatsarchiv Solothurn (Switzerland); Weissert, Helmut [ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Geological Inst.

    2011-12-15

    The role of the ''year without a summer'' (YWAS) in 1816 in shaping the scientific discourse on climatic changes has been investigated in an interdisciplinary project by studying reactions of different knowledge systems to the YWAS as an initially unexplainable event. The analysis of two Swiss newspapers shows that contemporary science did not play a role in perceiving and dealing with the impacts of the YWAS on the population. Since no climate discipline of its own existed, few contemporary scientist, as we would call those men of science today, were ready to take this situation as an opportunity, reinforcing existing ideas in their domain (e.g. botany, geology, astronomy). Nevertheless, the YWAS did have impacts on science. A ''call'' was issued by the Swiss Natural Sciences Society shortly after the event. The work of one of the respondents became influential for the development of the ice age theory. By revealing a general lack of knowledge on climate, the YWAS might have contributed to the construction of meteorological stations at that time. Some contemporary scientists argued that the cold summer in western Europe was caused by huge masses of ice drifting in the North Atlantic. However, there were no theories that could have linked the exceptionally wet weather in Europe with a volcanic eruption on the other side of the globe. Not before the early 20{sup th} century was the YWAS linked to the Tambora eruption of 1815. After almost two centuries, the YWAS has remained a challenge and source of inspiration. (orig.)

  14. Hydrological changes impacts on annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, F.; Caracciolo, D.; Feng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Runoff is expected to be modified in the next future by climate change as well as by land use change. Given its importance for water supply and ecosystem functioning, it is therefore imperative to develop adaptation strategies and new policies for regional water resources management and planning. To do so, the identification and attribution of natural flow regime shifts as a result of climate and land use changes are of crucial importance. In this context, the Budyko's curve has begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate and land use changes to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu's equation is proposed and applied to separate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the future annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins, such as those in Mediterranean climates. In particular, this framework improves a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins from annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration statistics, and from knowledge of the Fu's equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change has been taken into account through the variation of the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, consistent with general circulation models' outputs, while the Fu's equation parameter ω has been changed to represent land use change. The effects of the two factors of change (i.e., climate and land use) on the annual runoff pdf have been first independently and then jointly analyzed, by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and, based on likely scenarios, within the next 100 years. The results show that, for large basins, climate change is the dominant driver of the decline in annual runoff, while land use change is a secondary but important factor.

  15. Modelling spatial distribution of snails transmitting parasitic worms with importance to human and animal health and analysis of distributional changes in relation to climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrik B. Pedersen

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The environment, the on-going global climate change and the ecology of animal species determine the localisation of habitats and the geographical distribution of the various species in nature. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of such changes on snail species not only of interest to naturalists but also of importance to human and animal health. The spatial distribution of freshwater snail intermediate hosts involved in the transmission of schistosomiasis, fascioliasis and paramphistomiasis (i.e. Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis were modelled by the use of a maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent. Two snail observation datasets from Zimbabwe, from 1988 and 2012, were com- pared in terms of geospatial distribution and potential distributional change over this 24-year period investigated. Climate data, from the two years were identified and used in a species distribution modelling framework to produce maps of pre- dicted suitable snail habitats. Having both climate- and snail observation data spaced 24 years in time represent a unique opportunity to evaluate biological response of snails to changes in climate variables. The study shows that snail habitat suit- ability is highly variable in Zimbabwe with foci mainly in the central Highveld but also in areas to the South and West. It is further demonstrated that the spatial distribution of suitable habitats changes with variation in the climatic conditions, and that this parallels that of the predicted climate change.

  16. Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueri, Sibylle; Bopp, Laurent; Maury, Olivier

    2014-03-01

    Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Uneven Distribution of Regional Blood Supply Prompts the Cystic Change of Pituitary Adenoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianhe; Gu, Jianjun; Ma, Yiming; Huang, Yinxing; Wang, Jiaxing; Wu, Zhifeng; Zhong, Qun; Wang, Shousen

    2017-07-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the cystic change of pituitary adenoma might be related to the blood supply and metabolism of the tumor; however, the exact pathologic mechanism underlying the cystic change remains unknown. We aimed to assess the features of regional blood supply of pituitary adenoma and examine its relationship with the cystic change of pituitary adenoma. Patients (N = 79) with pituitary adenoma admitted to our hospital were divided into the parenchyma group (n = 40) or the cystic change group (n = 39). Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of the pituitary adenoma was conducted for the parenchyma group and the steepest slopes (SS max , reflecting regional blood supply) at different areas were calculated. The location of cystic change of the pituitary adenoma was recorded and analyzed for the cystic change group. The parenchyma group showed an upper SS max of 2.52 ± 1.18, a lower SS max of 2.89 ± 1.46, a left SS max of 2.71 ± 1.31, and a right SS max of 2.66 ± 1.29. The difference between the upper and lower SS max was statistically significant (P supply is unevenly distributed in the parenchymal pituitary adenoma, with reduced blood supply in the upper than the lower region. Cystic change mainly occurs in the upper region of pituitary adenoma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Jones

    1985-01-01

    Quaking aspen is the most widely distributed native North American tree species (Little 1971, Sargent 1890). It grows in a great diversity of regions, environments, and communities (Harshberger 1911). Only one deciduous tree species in the world, the closely related Eurasian aspen (Populus tremula), has a wider range (Weigle and Frothingham 1911)....

  19. Automated local bright feature image analysis of nuclear protein distribution identifies changes in tissue phenotype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knowles, David; Sudar, Damir; Bator, Carol; Bissell, Mina

    2006-01-01

    The organization of nuclear proteins is linked to cell and tissue phenotypes. When cells arrest proliferation, undergo apoptosis, or differentiate, the distribution of nuclear proteins changes. Conversely, forced alteration of the distribution of nuclear proteins modifies cell phenotype. Immunostaining and fluorescence microscopy have been critical for such findings. However, there is an increasing need for quantitative analysis of nuclear protein distribution to decipher epigenetic relationships between nuclear structure and cell phenotype, and to unravel the mechanisms linking nuclear structure and function. We have developed imaging methods to quantify the distribution of fluorescently-stained nuclear protein NuMA in different mammary phenotypes obtained using three-dimensional cell culture. Automated image segmentation of DAPI-stained nuclei was generated to isolate thousands of nuclei from three-dimensional confocal images. Prominent features of fluorescently-stained NuMA were detected using a novel local bright feature analysis technique, and their normalized spatial density calculated as a function of the distance from the nuclear perimeter to its center. The results revealed marked changes in the distribution of the density of NuMA bright features as non-neoplastic cells underwent phenotypically normal acinar morphogenesis. In contrast, we did not detect any reorganization of NuMA during the formation of tumor nodules by malignant cells. Importantly, the analysis also discriminated proliferating non-neoplastic cells from proliferating malignant cells, suggesting that these imaging methods are capable of identifying alterations linked not only to the proliferation status but also to the malignant character of cells. We believe that this quantitative analysis will have additional applications for classifying normal and pathological tissues

  20. Micro-level analysis of distributional changes in health care financing in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavus, J; Häkkinen, U

    1998-01-01

    In the early 1990s the Finnish economy suffered a severe recession at the same time as health care reforms were taking place. This study examines the effects of these changes on the distribution of contributions to health care financing in relation to household income. Explanations for changes in various indicators of health care expenditure and use during that time are offered. The analysis is based partly on actual income data and partly on simulated data from the base year (1990). It employs methods that allow the estimation of confidence intervals for inequality indices (the Gini coefficient and Kakwani's progressivity index). In spite of the substantial decrease in real incomes during the recession, the distribution of income remained almost unaltered. The share of total health care funding derived from poorer households increased somewhat, due purely to structural changes. The financial plight of the public sector led to the share of total funding from progressive income taxes to decrease, while regressive indirect taxes and direct payments by households contributed more. It seems that, aside from an increased financing burden on poorer households, Finland's health care system has withstood the tremendous changes of the early 1990s fairly well. This is largely attributable to the features of the tax-financed health care system, which apportions the effects of financial and functional disturbances equitably.

  1. Mating changes the subcellular distribution and the functionality of estrogen receptors in the rat oviduct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orihuela, Pedro A; Zuñiga, Lidia M; Rios, Mariana; Parada-Bustamante, Alexis; Sierralta, Walter D; Velásquez, Luis A; Croxatto, Horacio B

    2009-11-30

    Mating changes the mode of action of 17beta-estradiol (E2) to accelerate oviductal egg transport from a nongenomic to a genomic mode, although in both pathways estrogen receptors (ER) are required. This change was designated as intracellular path shifting (IPS). Herein, we examined the subcellular distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 (formerly known as ER-alpha and ER-beta) in oviductal epithelial cells of rats on day 1 of cycle (C1) or pregnancy (P1) using immunoelectron microscopy for ESR1 and ESR2. The effect of mating on intraoviductal ESR1 or ESR2 signaling was then explored comparing the expression of E2-target genes c-fos, brain creatine kinase (Ckb) and calbindin 9 kDa (s100g) in rats on C1 or P1 treated with selective agonists for ESR1 (PPT) or ESR2 (DPN). The effect of ER agonists on egg transport was also evaluated on C1 or P1 rats. Receptor immunoreactivity was associated with the nucleus, cytoplasm and plasma membrane of the epithelial cells. Mating affected the subcellular distribution of both receptors as well as the response to E2. In C1 and P1 rats, PPT increased Ckb while both agonists increased c-fos. DPN increased Ckb and s100g only in C1 and P1 rats, respectively. PPT accelerated egg transport in both groups and DPN accelerated egg transport only in C1 rats. Estrogen receptors present a subcellular distribution compatible with E2 genomic and nongenomic signaling in the oviductal epithelial cells of C1 and P1 although IPS occurs independently of changes in the distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 in the oviductal epithelial cells. Mating affected intraoviductal ER-signaling and induced loss of functional involvement of ESR2 on E2-induced accelerated egg transport. These findings reveal a profound influence on the ER signaling pathways exerted by mating in the oviduct.

  2. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

  3. Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangermano, Florencia

    2009-12-01

    The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

  4. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  5. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

    2018-09-01

    Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. MAGMADIM: Young Explainers Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltiel, Z.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text:Physics teachers and educators constantly face the problem of inspiring their students to major in physics. On the other hand, science museums are designed to provide a pleasant environment which will stimulate and encourage a science associated experience to the general public. Typically, there is no intention to teach science as such in science museums. One may, however, use the science museum to teach and inspire certain groups of students in a much deeper sense. In fact they may actually enthusiastically learn much of the school physics curriculum at the museum. This report discusses the Magmadim program through which 10th graders are trained to be young explainers at the Weizmann Institutes Clore Garden of Science. To this end they study the physics underlying its exhibits in an after-school course. The ultimate goal is for the 'magmadim' to become the best possible explainers and be able to face all sorts of museum visitors. Along with learning how to instruct visitors, they must learn the physics behind the exhibits to give a full explanation of the exhibit and be able to answer any question that may arise. Our 5 year experience with the program shows that its self-selected participants not only study a lot of science, but also like it and learn how to explain the content to other people. This program, along with similar programs at the Bloomfield Science Museum and the Madatzim (young physics tutors) program of Ort, help in promoting the interest in science in general and physics in particular among school students. Various ways to expand the programs will also be discussed

  7. A Data Flow Model to Solve the Data Distribution Changing Problem in Machine Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shang Bo-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous prediction is widely used in broad communities spreading from social to business and the machine learning method is an important method in this problem.When we use the machine learning method to predict a problem. We use the data in the training set to fit the model and estimate the distribution of data in the test set.But when we use machine learning to do the continuous prediction we get new data as time goes by and use the data to predict the future data, there may be a problem. As the size of the data set increasing over time, the distribution changes and there will be many garbage data in the training set.We should remove the garbage data as it reduces the accuracy of the prediction. The main contribution of this article is using the new data to detect the timeliness of historical data and remove the garbage data.We build a data flow model to describe how the data flow among the test set, training set, validation set and the garbage set and improve the accuracy of prediction. As the change of the data set, the best machine learning model will change.We design a hybrid voting algorithm to fit the data set better that uses seven machine learning models predicting the same problem and uses the validation set putting different weights on the learning models to give better model more weights. Experimental results show that, when the distribution of the data set changes over time, our time flow model can remove most of the garbage data and get a better result than the traditional method that adds all the data to the data set; our hybrid voting algorithm has a better prediction result than the average accuracy of other predict models

  8. Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ripszam, M., E-mail: matyas.ripszam@chem.umu.se [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Gallampois, C.M.J. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Berglund, Å. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Larsson, H. [Umeå Marine Sciences Centre, Umeå University, Norrbyn, 905 71 Hörnefors (Sweden); Andersson, A. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Tysklind, M.; Haglund, P. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden)

    2015-06-01

    Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15 °C and 4 mg DOC L{sup −1} and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18 °C and 6 mg DOC L{sup −1}, respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. - Highlights: • More contaminants remained in the ecosystem at higher organic carbon levels. • More contaminants were lost in the higher temperature treatments. • The combined effects are competitive with respect to contaminant cycling. • The individual properties of each contaminant determine their respective fate.

  9. Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ripszam, M.; Gallampois, C.M.J.; Berglund, Å.; Larsson, H.; Andersson, A.; Tysklind, M.; Haglund, P.

    2015-01-01

    Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15 °C and 4 mg DOC L −1 and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18 °C and 6 mg DOC L −1 , respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. - Highlights: • More contaminants remained in the ecosystem at higher organic carbon levels. • More contaminants were lost in the higher temperature treatments. • The combined effects are competitive with respect to contaminant cycling. • The individual properties of each contaminant determine their respective fate

  10. Linear Algebra Thoroughly Explained

    CERN Document Server

    Vujičić, Milan

    2008-01-01

    Linear Algebra Thoroughly Explained provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject suitable for adoption as a self-contained text for courses at undergraduate and postgraduate level. The clear and comprehensive presentation of the basic theory is illustrated throughout with an abundance of worked examples. The book is written for teachers and students of linear algebra at all levels and across mathematics and the applied sciences, particularly physics and engineering. It will also be an invaluable addition to research libraries as a comprehensive resource book for the subject.

  11. Examining Urban Impervious Surface Distribution and Its Dynamic Change in Hangzhou Metropolis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longwei Li

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of urban distribution and its expansion using remote sensing data has received increasing attention in the past three decades, but little research has examined spatial patterns of urban distribution and expansion with buffer zones in different directions. This research selected Hangzhou metropolis as a case study to analyze spatial patterns and dynamic changes based on time-series urban impervious surface area (ISA datasets. ISA was developed from Landsat imagery between 1991 and 2014 using a hybrid approach consisting of linear spectral mixture analysis, decision tree classifiers, and post-processing. The spatial patterns of ISA distribution and its dynamic changes in eight directions—east, southeast, south, southwest, west, northwest, north, and northeast—at the temporal scale were analyzed with a buffer zone-based approach. This research indicated that ISA can be extracted from Landsat imagery with both producer and user accuracies of over 90%. ISA in Hangzhou metropolis increased from 146 km2 in 1991 to 868 km2 in 2014. Annual ISA growth rates were between 15.6 km2 and 48.8 km2 with the lowest growth rate in 1994–2000 and the highest growth rate in 2005–2010. Urban ISA increase before 2000 was mainly due to infilling within the urban landscape, and, after 2005, due to urban expansion in the urban-rural interfaces. Urban expansion in this study area has different characteristics in various directions that are influenced by topographic factors and urban development policies.

  12. Distribution and habitat of brazilian-pine according to global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Silveira Wrege

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol. O. Kuntze., also known as brazilian-pine, is a forest native species from Brazil. A. angustifolia is more vulnerable to global climate change, considering it is living in cold and humid mountain regions from southern and southeastern Brazil. Among the native Brazilian forest species, it presents one of the greatest growth and genetic gain potential. It shows excellent wood quality and can still be used in human and animal food, presenting great economic, social and environmental value. In order to determine current distribution of the species and better know its habitat, we worked in the regions representing the borders of natural occurrence, identifying populations and getting trees altitude and geographycal position. Field information along with secondary data from the Environmental Information Center (CRIA were used to map current distribution of brazilian-pine and to project the distribution in the next decades, with the projection of future climate scenarios. Mapping studies of ecological niches in present and future climate scenarios characterizing the environments in which they are living is essential for a better understanding of the risks of species extinction and which mitigating measures could be adequate to reduce the impacts of global climate change on species, thus contributing to the conservation and knowledge of this important species.

  13. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

  14. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Yan Duan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s. Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s, and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

  15. Anti-islanding Protection of Distributed Generation Using Rate of Change of Impedance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Pragnesh; Bhalja, Bhavesh

    2013-08-01

    Distributed Generation (DG), which is interlinked with distribution system, has inevitable effect on distribution system. Integrating DG with the utility network demands an anti-islanding scheme to protect the system. Failure to trip islanded generators can lead to problems such as threats to personnel safety, out-of-phase reclosing, and degradation of power quality. In this article, a new method for anti-islanding protection based on impedance monitoring of distribution network is carried out in presence of DG. The impedance measured between two phases is used to derive the rate of change of impedance (dz/dt), and its peak values are used for final trip decision. Test data are generated using PSCAD/EMTDC software package and the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in MatLab software. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme as it is capable to detect islanding condition accurately. Subsequently, it is also observed that the proposed scheme does not mal-operate during other disturbances such as short circuit and switching event.

  16. Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

    Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

  17. Rapid change of ion energy distribution and floating potential at L/H transition in the JFT-2M tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Y.; Nagashima, K.; Okano, F.

    1994-01-01

    Rapid changes of the main ion energy distribution at transitions from L-to-H, H-to-L and during ELMs are studied with the time of flight neutral measurement in the JFT-2M tokamak. The change of the main ion energy distribution after sawtooth crash during an L-mode phase is also studied. The change of the ion energy distribution just after sawtooth crash is the same as that at L/H-transition. The floating potential measured in the SOL also shows the rapid jump to more positive just after the sawtooth crash (at the same time of the change of an ion energy distribution). This shows the increase of ion outflux in the SOL and might correspond to the change of the ion energy distribution. This may be the reason why most of H-modes are triggered by a sawtooth. (author)

  18. 75 FR 14076 - Express Mail Open and Distribute and Priority Mail Open and Distribute Changes and Updates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-24

    ... tray boxes to address Open and Distribute customers' concerns on the security of their mail in a letter tray during processing. The current tray box sizes were a result of customer feedback. The decision to... processing of Open and Distribute containers. In response to customer needs, the Postal Service is...

  19. Recent changes in the summer distribution of the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus off western France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Yésou

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available Surveys carried out in the 1980s showed that 8,000-10,000 Balearic shearwaters regularly gathered in inshore waters of central and northern Biscay, particularly off the coast of Vendée and in the Mor-Braz area, western France. This distribution, apparently linked to particular oceanographical conditions (thermal front, was strikingly overlapping with that of clupeid fish, particularly anchovies. Recent surveys (1999-2000 have shown that the species has become far less numerous in these "traditional" haunts. Conversely, its abundance has increased in the western Channel, some hundreds of kilometres to the North, during the 1990s. Reasons for this northward shift (e.g. changes in prey distribution due to fishing activities or water warming in Biscay remain hypothetical and further study is needed.

  20. Retrieval of collision kernels from the change of droplet size distributions with linear inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onishi, Ryo; Takahashi, Keiko [Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama Kanagawa 236-0001 (Japan); Matsuda, Keigo; Kurose, Ryoichi; Komori, Satoru [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Science, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)], E-mail: onishi.ryo@jamstec.go.jp, E-mail: matsuda.keigo@t03.mbox.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp, E-mail: takahasi@jamstec.go.jp, E-mail: kurose@mech.kyoto-u.ac.jp, E-mail: komori@mech.kyoto-u.ac.jp

    2008-12-15

    We have developed a new simple inversion scheme for retrieving collision kernels from the change of droplet size distribution due to collision growth. Three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of steady isotropic turbulence with colliding droplets are carried out in order to investigate the validity of the developed inversion scheme. In the DNS, air turbulence is calculated using a quasi-spectral method; droplet motions are tracked in a Lagrangian manner. The initial droplet size distribution is set to be equivalent to that obtained in a wind tunnel experiment. Collision kernels retrieved by the developed inversion scheme are compared to those obtained by the DNS. The comparison shows that the collision kernels can be retrieved within 15% error. This verifies the feasibility of retrieving collision kernels using the present inversion scheme.

  1. The role of body weight, fat distribution and weight change in ethnic differences in the 9-year incidence of hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grootveld, Laura R; Van Valkengoed, Irene G M; Peters, Ron J G; Ujcic-Voortman, Joanne K; Brewster, Lizzy M; Stronks, Karien; Snijder, Marieke B

    2014-05-01

    To investigate the role of body composition (body weight, fat distribution and weight change over time) in ethnic differences in the incidence of hypertension in an ethnic Dutch, South Asian Surinamese and African Surinamese background population living in the Netherlands. We included 361 participants without hypertension at baseline (147 ethnic Dutch, 82 South Asian Surinamese, 132 African Surinamese), aged 35-60 years, in whom anthropometric measurements and blood pressures were measured at baseline and after mean 9 years of follow-up. Data were analysed using logistic regression analyses, with hypertension at follow up as a dependent variable. Body weight, fat distribution and weight gain were positively associated with the risk of developing hypertension; these associations did not statistically significantly differ between ethnic groups [odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence interval (95% CI) per SD: BMI 1.5 (1.2-2.0); waist circumference 1.5 (1.2-1.9); waist to hip ratio (WHR) 1.4 (1.1-1.9), weight gain of 1-2.9 kg/m 1.8 (0.9-3.8)]. As compared with Dutch, a higher incidence of hypertension was found among South Asian Surinamese [OR 2.6 (1.4-4.8)] and in particular among African Surinamese [OR 3.1 (1.76-5.30)]. Among South Asian Surinamese, adjustment for WHR attenuated the OR the most [OR 1.9 (1.0-3.7)]; among African Surinamese, the strongest effect was observed for adjustment by BMI and WHR simultaneously [OR 2.5 (1.4-4.4)]. The ethnic differences in the incidence of hypertension among a middle-aged group with a Dutch, South Asian Surinamese and African Surinamese background were partly explained by body composition. This suggests that other factors may be involved, including genetic factors or unidentified other determinants.

  2. Density and spatial distribution of Parkia biglobosa pattern in Benin under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fafunkè Titilayo Dotchamou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Parkia biglobosa is an indigenous species which, traditionally contributes to the resilience of the agricultural production system in terms of food security, source of income, poverty reduction and ecosystem stability. Therefore, it is important to improve knowledge on its density, current and future spatial distribution. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the tree density, the climate change effects on the spatial distribution of the species in the future for better conservation. The modeling of the current and future geographical distribution of the species is based on the principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt on a total of 286 occurrence points from field work and Global Biodiversity Information Facility GBIF-Data Portal-(www.gbif.org. Two climatic models (HadGEM2_ES and Csiro_mk3_6_0 have been used under two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the projection of the species distribution at the horizon 2050. The correlation analyses and Jackknife test have helped to identify seven variables which are less correlated (r < 0.80 with highest modeling participation. The soil, annual precipitation (BIO12 and temperature (diurnal average Deviation are the variables which have mostly contributed to performance of the models. Currently, 53% of national territory, spread from north to south is very suitable to the cultivation of P. biglobosa. The scenarios have predicted at the horizon 2050, a loss of the habitats which are currently very suitable for the cultivation and conservation of P. biglobosa, to the benefit of moderate and weak habitats. 51% and 57% are the highest proportion of this lost which will be registered with HadGEM2_ES model under two scenarios. These results revealed that the suitable habitat of the species is threatened by climate change in Benin. In order to limit damage such as decreased productivity, extinction of species, some appropriate solutions must be found.

  3. Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippa McNeil

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

  4. Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey J Walsh

    Full Text Available Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf. Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf

  5. Explaining the Evolution of Poverty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Hussain, Azhar; Jones, Edward Samuel

    2012-01-01

    We provide a comprehensive approach for analyzing the evolution of poverty using Mozambique as a case study. Bringing together data from disparate sources, we develop a novel “back-casting” framework that links a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to a micro-simulation poverty module....... This framework provides a new approach to explaining and decomposing the evolution of poverty, as well as to examining rigorously the coherence between poverty, economic growth, and inequality outcomes. Finally, various simple but useful and rarely-applied approaches to considering regional changes in poverty...

  6. Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth

    2018-01-01

    There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.

  7. Explaining compact groups as change alignments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamon, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    The physical nature of the apparently densest groups of galaxies, known as compact groups is a topic of some recent controversy, despite the detailed observations of a well-defined catalog of 100 isolated compact groups compiled by Hickson (1982). Whereas many authors have espoused the view that compact groups are bound systems, typically as dense as they appear in projection on the sky (e.g., Williams ampersand Rood 1987; Sulentic 1987; Hickson ampersand Rood 1988), others see them as the result of chance configurations within larger systems, either in 1D (chance alignments: Mamon 1986; Walke ampersand Mamon 1989), or in 3D (transient cores: Rose 1979). As outlined in the companion review to this contribution (Mamon, in these proceedings), the implication of Hickson's compact groups (HCGs) being dense bound systems is that they would then constitute the densest isolated systems of galaxies in the Universe and the privileged site for galaxy interactions. In a previous paper (Mamon 1986), the author reviewed the arguments given for the different theories of compact groups. Since then, a dozen papers have been published on the subject, including a thorough and perceptive review by White (1990), thus more than doubling the amount written on the subject. Here, the author first enumerates the arguments that he brought up in 1986 substantiating the chance alignment hypothesis, then he reviews the current status of the numerous recent arguments arguing against chance alignments and/or for the bound dense group hypothesis (both for the majority of HCGs but not all of them), and finally he reconsiders each one of these anti-chance alignment arguments and shows that, rather than being discredited, the chance alignment hypothesis remains a fully consistent explanation for the nature of compact groups

  8. Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Hayes

    Full Text Available Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 "worst-case" future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via

  9. Emphysema distribution and annual changes in pulmonary function in male patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanabe Naoya

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD considerably varies among patients. Those with emphysema identified by quantitative computed tomography (CT are associated with the rapid progression assessed by forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1. However, whether the rate of the decline in lung function is independently affected by the regional distribution or the severity of emphysema in the whole lung is unclear. Methods We followed up 131 male patients with COPD for a median of 3.7 years. We measured wall area percent (WA% in right apical segmental bronchus, total lung volume, percent low attenuation volume (LAV%, and the standard deviation (SD of LAV% values from CT images of 10 isovolumetric partitions (SD-LAV as an index of cranial-caudal emphysema heterogeneity. Annual changes in FEV1 were then determined using a random coefficient model and relative contribution of baseline clinical parameters, pulmonary function, and CT indexes including LAV%, SD-LAV, and WA% to annual changes in FEV1 were examined. Results The mean (SD annual change in FEV1 was −44.4 (10.8 mL. Multivariate random coefficient model showed that higher baseline FEV1, higher LAV%, current smoking, and lower SD-LAV independently contributed to an excessive decline in FEV1, whereas ratio of residual volume to total lung capacity, ratio of diffusing capacity to alveolar ventilation, and WA% did not, after adjusting for age, height, weight, and ratio of CT-measured total lung volume to physiologically-measured total lung capacity. Conclusions A more homogeneous distribution of emphysema contributed to an accelerated decline in FEV1 independently of baseline pulmonary function, whole-lung emphysema severity, and smoking status. In addition to whole-lung analysis of emphysema, CT assessment of the cranial-caudal distribution of emphysema might be useful for predicting rapid, progressive disease and for developing a targeted

  10. Mangroves Response to Climate Change: A Review of Recent Findings on Mangrove Extension and Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario D.P. Godoy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves function as a natural coastline protection for erosion and inundation, providing important environmental services. Due to their geographical distribution at the continent-ocean interface, the mangrove habitat may suffer heavy impacts from global climate change, maximized by local human activities occurring in a given coastal region. This review analyzed the literature published over the last 25 years, on the documented response of mangroves to environmental change caused by global climate change, taking into consideration 104 case studies and predictive modeling, worldwide. Most studies appeared after the year 2000, as a response to the 1997 IPCC report. Although many reports showed that the world's mangrove area is decreasing due to direct anthropogenic pressure, several others, however, showed that in a variety of habitats mangroves are expanding as a response to global climate change. Worldwide, pole ward migration is extending the latitudinal limits of mangroves due to warmer winters and decreasing the frequency of extreme low temperatures, whereas in low-lying coastal plains, mangroves are migrating landward due to sea level rise, as demonstrated for the NE Brazilian coast. Taking into consideration climate change alone, mangroves in most areas will display a positive response. In some areas however, such as low-lying oceanic islands, such as in the Pacific and the Caribbean, and constrained coastlines, such as the SE Brazilian coast, mangroves will most probably not survive.

  11. Matlab for engineers explained

    CERN Document Server

    Gustafsson, Fredrik

    2003-01-01

    This book is written for students at bachelor and master programs and has four different purposes, which split the book into four parts: 1. To teach first or early year undergraduate engineering students basic knowledge in technical computations and programming using MATLAB. The first part starts from first principles and is therefore well suited both for readers with prior exposure to MATLAB but lacking a solid foundational knowledge of the capabilities of the system and readers not having any previous experience with MATLAB. The foundational knowledge gained from these interactive guided tours of the system will hopefully be sufficient for an effective utilization of MATLAB in the engineering profession, in education and in research. 2. To explain the foundations of more advanced use of MATLAB using the facilities added the last couple of years, such as extended data structures, object orientation and advanced graphics. 3. To give an introduction to the use of MATLAB in typical undergraduate courses in elec...

  12. Modeling of changes in particle size distribution of solids in multistage separation systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lagereva E.A.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The presented method of calculation of the separation of solid particles from gas streams to multistage separation sys-tems, consisting of a number of sequentially installed separational devices of various design and principle of operation. It is based on a separate analysis of the sequential processes of capture and transmission of individual fractions of solid particles of a polydisperse structure. The technique provides information about changes in particle size distribution of solids with the passage of the gas flow in the treatment system and allows you to specifically select the effective combination of different types of separators.

  13. The changing gender distribution of paid and unpaid work in New Zealand

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Callister

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores five main questions regarding the gender distribution of work, primarily in the context of couples with young children. These are: how much total paid and unpaid work is carried out in New Zealand?; how is this work shared between women and men?; how does this compare with other countries?; how might the mix of unpaid and paid work change in New Zealand in the future?; and should gender equity in paid and unpaid work be a key part of the discussion about labour market part...

  14. Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Nathan P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months

  15. Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P Lemoine

    Full Text Available Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp. host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in

  16. Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, Nathan P

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months

  17. Changes in subcellular elemental distributions accompanying the acrosome reaction in sea urchin sperm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantino, M.E.; Schackmann, R.W.; Johnson, D.E.

    1983-01-01

    Energy-dispersive x-ray microanalysis was used to analyze changes in the subcellular distributions of Na, Mg, P, S, Cl, K, and Ca associated with the acrosome reaction of sea urchin sperm. Within 5 sec after induction of the acrosome reaction, nuclear Na and mitochondrial Ca increased and nuclear and mitochondrial K decreased. Uptake of mitochondrial P was detected after several minutes, and increases in nuclear Mg were detected only after 5-10 min of incubation following induction of the reaction. The results suggest that sudden permeability changes in the sperm plasma membrane are associated with the acrosome reaction, but that complete breakdown of membrane and cell function does not occur for several minutes

  18. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

  19. Do changes in the azimuthal distribution of maize leaves over time affect canopy light absorption?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drouet, J.L.; Moulia, B.; Bonhomme, R.

    1999-01-01

    In maize canopies, when modelling the architecture and light regime one usually assumes leaf azimuths are distributed uniformly. Once we had demonstrated azimuthal re-orientation of maize leaves during the vegetative phase, we tested the weight of this hypothesis on the light absorbed daily by the canopy. We thus modelled the three-dimensional (3D) geometry of maize canopies with various plant densities and at different developmental stages using plant digitizing under field conditions. We simulated radiative transfer using a volume-based approach within actual and hypothetical canopies, obtained by simply rearranging leaf azimuths. Simulations indicated that changes to horizontal heterogeneity have little effect on daily light absorption efficiency. It is concluded that changes in leaf azimuths do not have to be taken into account in crop-functioning models. (author) [fr

  20. Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes: first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Okladinikov, Igor; Prusevich, Alex; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Description and first results of the cooperative project "Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes" recently started by SCERT IMCES and ESRC UNH are reported. The project is aimed at development of hardware and software platform prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes over the areas of mutual interest and demonstration the benefits of such collaboration that complements skills and regional knowledge across the northern extratropics. In the framework of the project, innovative approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platforms of two U.S. and Russian leading institutions involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research centers focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies by international research teams. DRC under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed by the cooperating teams' information-computational systems RIMS (http://rims.unh.edu) and CLIMATE(http://climate.scert.ru/), which are widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The project includes several major directions of research (Tasks) listed below. 1. Development of architecture and defining major hardware and software components of DRC for monitoring and projecting of regional environmental changes. 2. Development of an information database and computing software suite for distributed processing and analysis of large geospatial data hosted at ESRC and IMCES SB RAS. 3. Development of geoportal, thematic web client and web services providing international research teams with an access to "cloud" computing resources at DRC; two options will be executed: access through a basic graphical web browser and

  1. Changes in the Distribution of Sex Partners in the United States: 2002 to 2011-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Christopher R; Dittus, Patricia J; Leichliter, Jami S; Aral, Sevgi O

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of the current analysis is to examine subgroup differences in the distribution of opposite-sex sex partners in the United States across an approximate 10-year period to identify patterns that may inform sexually transmitted infection research and prevention. Data were drawn from the 2002 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth, a US probability-based household survey focusing on sexual and reproductive health. The measures included in this analysis were lifetime opposite-sex sex partners and opposite-sex sex partners in the past year. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women. All analyses were conducted in R and R-studio with the "survey" package, focusing on medians, the 80th, and 95th quartile. In 2002, there were significant differences between men and women in median number of lifetime sex partners with men reporting more lifetime partners. However, in the 2011-2013 data, these differences are no longer significant. Still, the findings suggest that the top 20% and top 5% of men are reporting significantly more lifetime partners than their female counterparts. In comparison, partners in the past year remain relatively unchanged for both men and women. These findings suggest that there were important changes in the distribution of sex partners between 2002 and 2011-2013 that have implications for sexually transmitted infection prevention. Median lifetime partners are no longer different for women and men: however, the distribution of lifetime partners among men is becoming even more skewed.

  2. Predicting Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of the Widespread Conifer Platycladus orientalis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Ge Hu

    Full Text Available Chinese thuja (Platycladus orientalis has a wide but fragmented distribution in China. It is an important conifer tree in reforestation and plays important roles in ecological restoration in the arid mountains of northern China. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. orientalis, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and identified regions of high risk under climate change scenarios. The niche models showed that P. orientalis has suitable habitat of ca. 4.2×106 km2 across most of eastern China and identified annual temperature, monthly minimum and maximum ultraviolet-B radiation and wet-day frequency as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. orientalis. Under the low concentration greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the range of the species may increase as global warming intensifies; however, under the higher concentrations of emissions scenario, we predicted a slight expansion followed by contraction in distribution. Overall, the range shift to higher latitudes and elevations would become gradually more significant. The information gained from this study should be an useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for the species.

  3. Age-related changes in abdominal fat distribution in Japanese adults in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihara, Masako; Oka, Rie; Sakurai, Masaru; Nakamura, Koshi; Moriuchi, Tadashi; Miyamoto, Susumu; Takeda, Yoshiyu; Yagi, Kunimasa; Yamagishi, Masakazu

    2011-01-01

    Early studies have indicated that body fat shifts from peripheral stores to central stores with aging. The objective of this study was to investigate age-related changes in abdominal fat distribution of Japanese men and women of the general population over a wide range of body mass indices (BMI). A total of 2,220 non-diabetic, apparently healthy Japanese adults (1,240 men and 980 women; age range 40-69 years) were included in the study sample. All subjects underwent a CT scan at the level of the umbilicus, and the areas of visceral adipose tissue (AT) and subcutaneous AT were quantified. When the subjects were stratified by BMI into 18.5-23.0 kg/m(2), 23.0-27.5 kg/m(2), and 27.5 kg/m(2) or higher, visceral AT was positively correlated with age in all of the BMI strata in both genders (pabdominal fat distribution, women retained the subcutaneous-dominant type of fat distribution up to 70 years.

  4. Laminar Distribution of the Pathological Changes in Sporadic and Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Armstrong

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The laminar distributions of the pathological changes in the cerebral cortex were compared in the prion diseases sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD and variant CJD (vCJD. First, in some cortical regions, the vacuolation (“spongiform change” was more generally distributed across the cortex in sCJD. Second, there was greater neuronal loss in the upper cortex in vCJD and in the lower cortex in sCJD. Third, the “diffuse” and “florid” prion protein (PrPsc deposits were more frequently distributed in the upper cortex in vCJD and the “synaptic” deposits in the lower cortex in sCJD. Fourth, there was a significant gliosis mainly affecting the lower cortex of both disorders. The data suggest that the pattern of cortical degeneration is different in sCJD and vCJD which may reflect differences in aetiology and the subsequent spread of prion pathology within the brain.

  5. Potential impacts of changing supply-water quality on drinking water distribution: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gang; Zhang, Ya; Knibbe, Willem-Jan; Feng, Cuijie; Liu, Wentso; Medema, Gertjan; van der Meer, Walter

    2017-06-01

    Driven by the development of water purification technologies and water quality regulations, the use of better source water and/or upgraded water treatment processes to improve drinking water quality have become common practices worldwide. However, even though these elements lead to improved water quality, the water quality may be impacted during its distribution through piped networks due to the processes such as pipe material release, biofilm formation and detachment, accumulation and resuspension of loose deposits. Irregular changes in supply-water quality may cause physiochemical and microbiological de-stabilization of pipe material, biofilms and loose deposits in the distribution system that have been established over decades and may harbor components that cause health or esthetical issues (brown water). Even though it is clearly relevant to customers' health (e.g., recent Flint water crisis), until now, switching of supply-water quality is done without any systematic evaluation. This article reviews the contaminants that develop in the water distribution system and their characteristics, as well as the possible transition effects during the switching of treated water quality by destabilization and the release of pipe material and contaminants into the water and the subsequent risks. At the end of this article, a framework is proposed for the evaluation of potential transition effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Aerosol number size distributions over a coastal semi urban location: Seasonal changes and ultrafine particle bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babu, S. Suresh; Kompalli, Sobhan Kumar; Moorthy, K. Krishna

    2016-01-01

    Number-size distribution is one of the important microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols that influence aerosol life cycle, aerosol-radiation interaction as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. Making use of one-yearlong measurements of aerosol particle number-size distributions (PNSD) over a broad size spectrum (~ 15–15,000 nm) from a tropical coastal semi-urban location-Trivandrum (Thiruvananthapuram), the size characteristics, their seasonality and response to mesoscale and synoptic scale meteorology are examined. While the accumulation mode contributed mostly to the annual mean concentration, ultrafine particles (having diameter < 100 nm) contributed as much as 45% to the total concentration, and thus constitute a strong reservoir, that would add to the larger particles through size transformation. The size distributions were, in general, bimodal with well-defined modes in the accumulation and coarse regimes, with mode diameters lying in the range 141 to 167 nm and 1150 to 1760 nm respectively, in different seasons. Despite the contribution of the coarse sized particles to the total number concentration being meager, they contributed significantly to the surface area and volume, especially during transport of marine air mass highlighting the role of synoptic air mass changes. Significant diurnal variation occurred in the number concentrations, geometric mean diameters, which is mostly attributed to the dynamics of the local coastal atmospheric boundary layer and the effect of mesoscale land/sea breeze circulation. Bursts of ultrafine particles (UFP) occurred quite frequently, apparently during periods of land-sea breeze transitions, caused by the strong mixing of precursor-rich urban air mass with the cleaner marine air mass; the resulting turbulence along with boundary layer dynamics aiding the nucleation. These ex-situ particles were observed at the surface due to the transport associated with boundary layer dynamics. The particle growth rates from

  7. Aerosol number size distributions over a coastal semi urban location: Seasonal changes and ultrafine particle bursts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babu, S. Suresh, E-mail: s_sureshbabu@vssc.gov.in [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram 695022 (India); Kompalli, Sobhan Kumar [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram 695022 (India); Moorthy, K. Krishna [Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012 (India)

    2016-09-01

    Number-size distribution is one of the important microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols that influence aerosol life cycle, aerosol-radiation interaction as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. Making use of one-yearlong measurements of aerosol particle number-size distributions (PNSD) over a broad size spectrum (~ 15–15,000 nm) from a tropical coastal semi-urban location-Trivandrum (Thiruvananthapuram), the size characteristics, their seasonality and response to mesoscale and synoptic scale meteorology are examined. While the accumulation mode contributed mostly to the annual mean concentration, ultrafine particles (having diameter < 100 nm) contributed as much as 45% to the total concentration, and thus constitute a strong reservoir, that would add to the larger particles through size transformation. The size distributions were, in general, bimodal with well-defined modes in the accumulation and coarse regimes, with mode diameters lying in the range 141 to 167 nm and 1150 to 1760 nm respectively, in different seasons. Despite the contribution of the coarse sized particles to the total number concentration being meager, they contributed significantly to the surface area and volume, especially during transport of marine air mass highlighting the role of synoptic air mass changes. Significant diurnal variation occurred in the number concentrations, geometric mean diameters, which is mostly attributed to the dynamics of the local coastal atmospheric boundary layer and the effect of mesoscale land/sea breeze circulation. Bursts of ultrafine particles (UFP) occurred quite frequently, apparently during periods of land-sea breeze transitions, caused by the strong mixing of precursor-rich urban air mass with the cleaner marine air mass; the resulting turbulence along with boundary layer dynamics aiding the nucleation. These ex-situ particles were observed at the surface due to the transport associated with boundary layer dynamics. The particle growth rates from

  8. Mating changes the subcellular distribution and the functionality of estrogen receptors in the rat oviduct

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sierralta Walter

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mating changes the mode of action of 17beta-estradiol (E2 to accelerate oviductal egg transport from a nongenomic to a genomic mode, although in both pathways estrogen receptors (ER are required. This change was designated as intracellular path shifting (IPS. Methods Herein, we examined the subcellular distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 (formerly known as ER-alpha and ER-beta in oviductal epithelial cells of rats on day 1 of cycle (C1 or pregnancy (P1 using immunoelectron microscopy for ESR1 and ESR2. The effect of mating on intraoviductal ESR1 or ESR2 signaling was then explored comparing the expression of E2-target genes c-fos, brain creatine kinase (Ckb and calbindin 9 kDa (s100g in rats on C1 or P1 treated with selective agonists for ESR1 (PPT or ESR2 (DPN. The effect of ER agonists on egg transport was also evaluated on C1 or P1 rats. Results Receptor immunoreactivity was associated with the nucleus, cytoplasm and plasma membrane of the epithelial cells. Mating affected the subcellular distribution of both receptors as well as the response to E2. In C1 and P1 rats, PPT increased Ckb while both agonists increased c-fos. DPN increased Ckb and s100g only in C1 and P1 rats, respectively. PPT accelerated egg transport in both groups and DPN accelerated egg transport only in C1 rats. Conclusion Estrogen receptors present a subcellular distribution compatible with E2 genomic and nongenomic signaling in the oviductal epithelial cells of C1 and P1 although IPS occurs independently of changes in the distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 in the oviductal epithelial cells. Mating affected intraoviductal ER-signaling and induced loss of functional involvement of ESR2 on E2-induced accelerated egg transport. These findings reveal a profound influence on the ER signaling pathways exerted by mating in the oviduct.

  9. An investigation of changes in element distribution and chemical states during differentiation of embryonic stem cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, T.; Ide-Ektessabi, A.; Ishihara, R.; Tanigaki, M.

    2004-01-01

    Metallic elements and their organic compounds have dynamic regulatory functions in cells. In this study, we implemented a new approach to investigate the mechanism of differentiation of embryonic stem cells, by measuring and analyzing the change in distribution and chemical states of intracellular trace elements. We anticipate that trace metal elements and metalloproteins play important roles in the direction of differentiation, both as active centers, and as factors in the death of neural cells in neurodegenerative disorders. The aim of this study is to analyze the distribution and chemical states of trace elements during the process of differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells, and to understand how these factors relate to the differentiation process. Using the experimental results, some previously unexplained points are considered, namely (1) how the intracellular elements change during the process of neuronal differentiation, and (2) what the optimal conditions of such elements are for neuronal differentiation. The information obtained during this study is relevant to nervous system development and evolution

  10. An investigation of changes in element distribution and chemical states during differentiation of embryonic stem cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugimoto, T.; Ide-Ektessabi, A. E-mail: h51167@sakura.kudpc.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Ishihara, R.; Tanigaki, M

    2004-07-01

    Metallic elements and their organic compounds have dynamic regulatory functions in cells. In this study, we implemented a new approach to investigate the mechanism of differentiation of embryonic stem cells, by measuring and analyzing the change in distribution and chemical states of intracellular trace elements. We anticipate that trace metal elements and metalloproteins play important roles in the direction of differentiation, both as active centers, and as factors in the death of neural cells in neurodegenerative disorders. The aim of this study is to analyze the distribution and chemical states of trace elements during the process of differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells, and to understand how these factors relate to the differentiation process. Using the experimental results, some previously unexplained points are considered, namely (1) how the intracellular elements change during the process of neuronal differentiation, and (2) what the optimal conditions of such elements are for neuronal differentiation. The information obtained during this study is relevant to nervous system development and evolution.

  11. Climate change and water scarcity effects on the rural income distribution in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quiroga, Sonia; Suárez, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change and water scarcity on the agricultural outputs in the Mediterranean region. By now the effects of water scarcity as a response to climate change or policy restrictions has been analyzed with response functions considering the direct effects on crop productivity. Here we consider a complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of the Gini coefficient to estimate the impact of climate change and water scarcity on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptation of certain adaptation measures in a context of water scarcity. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects on the two considered direct and indirect impacts. In our estimates we consider both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to conclude that there are long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation strategies depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

  12. Synergistic impacts of deforestation, climate change and fire on the future biomes distribution in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, G.; Cardoso, M. F.; Nobre, C. A.; Salazar, L. F.

    2013-05-01

    Several studies indicate future increase of environmental risks for the ecosystems in the Amazon region as a result of climate and land-use change, and their synergistic interactions. Modeling studies (e.g. Oyama and Nobre 2004, Salazar et al. 2007, Malhi et al. 2008) project rapid and irreversible replacement of forests by savannas with large-scale losses of biodiversity and livelihoods for people in the region. This process is referred to as the Amazon Dieback, where accelerated plant mortality due to environmental changes lead to forest collapse and savannas expansion after "tipping points" in climate and land surface changes are achieved. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, climate change and fire may combine to affect the distribution of major biomes in Amazonia. Changes in land use consider deforestation scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50% (Sampaio et al., 2007), with and without fires (Cardoso et al., 2008), under the two greenhouse gases scenarios B1 and A2 and three "representative concentration pathways" (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, for years 2015-2034 and 2040-2059 ("2025" and "2050" time-slices), from IPCC AR4 and CMIP5. The results show that the area affected in scenarios A2 and RCP 8.5 is larger than in the climate scenario B1 and RCP 2.6, and in both cases the effect is progressively higher in time. Most important changes occur in the East and South of the Amazon, with replacement of tropical forest by seasonal forest and savanna. The effect of fire in this region is important in all scenarios. The Northwest Amazon presents the smallest changes in the area of tropical forest, indicating that even for substantial land-use modifications and global climate change, the resulting atmospheric conditions would still support tropical forest in the region. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation, climate change resulting from global warming, and the potential for higher fire occurrence may lead

  13. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  14. Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Andrew Joyner

    Full Text Available Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2 and 8 km(2 and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2. Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2, approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2, and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2. Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B

  15. Association between abdominal fat distribution and atherosclerotic changes in the carotid artery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oike, Miki; Yokokawa, Hirohide; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Haniu, Tomomi; Oka, Fukuko; Hisaoka, Teruhiko; Isonuma, Hiroshi

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to evaluate the association between abdominal fat distribution (e.g., abdominal visceral fat area [VFA], subcutaneous fat area [SFA], and total fat area [TFA]), waist circumference (WC), or body mass index (BMI) and atherosclerotic changes in the carotid artery after adjusting for common risk factors. The present study is a hospital-based, cross-sectional study. Study participants included 223 Japanese individuals who underwent a medical health checkup at Juntendo University Hospital, Tokyo, between December 2005 and August 2011. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between abdominal VFA, SFA, TFA, the VFA/SFA ratio, WC, or BMI and intima-media thickness [IMT] (mean IMT≥1.1mm or maximum IMT≥1.2mm) as atherosclerotic changes in the carotid artery. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that VFA (OR for ≥150cm(2) versus <100cm(2), 3.88; 95% CI, 1.39-10.85), BMI (OR for ≥27.6kg/m(2) versus <25kg/m(2), 5.22; 95% CI, 1.69-16.16), and TFA (OR for 200-285cm(2) versus <200cm(2), 4.15; 95% CI, 1.34-12.86: OR for ≥285cm(2) versus <200cm(2), 5.53; 95% CI, 1.76-17.35) were significantly associated with atherosclerotic changes in men. After adjustment for BMI, only TFA (OR for ≥285cm(2) versus <200cm(2), 3.76; 95%CI, 1.03-13.79) in men was significantly associated with atherosclerotic changes in the carotid artery. Our results indicate that VFA, TFA, and BMI are independently associated with atherosclerotic changes in Japanese men. TFA may be considered as a valuable measure of atherosclerotic changes. Copyright © 2013 Asian Oceanian Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. PMID:29267357

  17. Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchego, Carlos E; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

    2017-01-01

    Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

  18. Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

    2014-01-01

    We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

  19. Explaining competitive reaction effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    Changes in promotional expenditure decisions for a brand, as in other marketing decisions, should be based on the expected impact on purchase and consumption behavior as well as on the likely reactions by competitors. Purchase behavior may be predicted from estimated demand functions. Competitive

  20. Monitoring change in the abundance and distribution of insects using butterflies and other indicator groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J A

    2005-02-28

    Conservative estimates suggest that 50-90% of the existing insect species on Earth have still to be discovered, yet the named insects alone comprise more than half of all known species of organism. With such poor baseline knowledge, monitoring change in insect diversity poses a formidable challenge to scientists and most attempts to generalize involve large extrapolations from a few well-studied taxa. Butterflies are often the only group for which accurate measures of change can be obtained. Four schemes, used successfully to assess change in British butterflies, that are increasingly being applied across the world are described: Red Data Books (RDB) list the best judgements of experts of the conservation status of species in their field of expertise; mapping schemes plot the changing distributions of species at scales of 1-100 km2; transect monitoring schemes generate time series of changes in abundance in sample populations of species on fixed sites across the UK; and occasional surveys measure the number, boundaries and size of all populations of a (usually RDB) species at intervals of 10-30 years. All schemes describe consistent patterns of change, but if they are to be more generally useful, it is important to understand how well butterflies are representative of other taxa. Comparisons with similarly measured changes in native bird and plant species suggest that butterflies have declined more rapidly that these other groups in Britain; it should soon be possible to test whether this pattern exists elsewhere. It is also demonstrated that extinction rates in British butterflies are similar to those in a range of other insect groups over 100 years once recording bias is accounted for, although probably lower than in aquatic or parasitic taxa. It is concluded that butterflies represent adequate indicators of change for many terrestrial insect groups, but recommended that similar schemes be extended to other popular groups, especially dragonflies, bumblebees

  1. Macrophyte distribution and ecological status of the Turiec River (Slovakia: Changes after seven years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrivnák R.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Characteristics of diversity, abundance, distribution, and ecological status of aquatic macrophytes were observed in 2000 and 2007 on a circa 4.5 km long section of the Turiec River using Kohler's method. In comparison to 2000, the total number of macrophytes in 2007 increased markedly (from 25 to 35, although only the numbers of amphi­phytes and helophytes were changed substantially. The number of hydrophytes increased from 11 to 12; an invasive, Elodea canadenis, was the only new species. The relative plant mass of hydrophytes represents the bulk of all recorded species (95 and 80% in 2000 and 2007, respectively, and it was changed for most hydrophytes. The most significant changes were detected for Myriophyllum spicatum (decrease, filamentous algae (decrease, and Potamogeton crispus (increase. In 2007, the mean mass total (MMT sum of hydrophytes decreased from 16.46 to 14.5. On the other hand, the MMTsum of amphiphytes and helophytes doubled in value (7.4 and 14.1 in 2000 and 2007, respectively. Within hydrophytes, Batrachium species (including B. aquatile and B. trichophyllum, Myriophyllum spicatum, and Potamogeton crispus were ubiquitous (distribution ratio d > 0.5 in 2000, whereas in 2007 only Batrachium species and Potamogeton crispus were ubiquitous. At all times, Batrachium species were the most frequent species in the study area, and their abundance was relatively high (MMT> 2.5. A poor ecological status (MMP = 0.378 and MMP = 0.333 in 2000 and 2007, respectively of the surveyed river section was found in both years, but a slight decline of quality as determined on the basis of aquatic plants was observed after 7 years.

  2. Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard R. Veit

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Population level impacts upon seabirds from changing climate are increasingly evident, and include effects on phenology, migration, dispersal, annual survivorship and reproduction. Most population data on seabirds derive from nesting colonies; documented climate impacts on winter ecology are scarce. We studied interannual variability in winter abundance of six species of alcids (Charadriiformes, Alcidae from a 58-year time series of data collected in Massachusetts 1954-2011. We used counts of birds taken during fall and winter from coastal vantage points. Counts were made by amateur birders, but coverage was consistent in timing and location. We found significant association between winter abundance of all six species of alcids and climate, indexed by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, at two temporal scales: 1. Significant linear trends at the 58-year scale of the time series; and 2. Shorter term fluctuations corresponding to the 5-8 year periodicity of NAO. Thus, variation in winter abundance of all six species of alcids was significantly related to the combined short-term and longer-term components of variation in NAO. Two low-Arctic species (Atlantic Puffin and Black Guillemot peaked during NAO positive years, while two high Arctic species (Dovekie and Thick-billed Murre peaked during NAO negative years. For Common Murres and Razorbills, southward shifts in winter distribution have been accompanied by southward expansion of breeding range, and increase within the core of the range. The proximate mechanism governing these changes is unclear, but, as for most other species of seabirds whose distributions have changed with climate, seems likely to be through their prey.

  3. Hysteresis in suspended sediment to turbidity relations due to changing particle size distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landers, Mark N.; Sturm, Terry W.

    2013-01-01

    Turbidity (T) is the most ubiquitous of surrogate technologies used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). The effects of sediment size on turbidity are well documented; however, effects from changes in particle size distributions (PSD) are rarely evaluated. Hysteresis in relations of SSC-to-turbidity (SSC~T) for single stormflow events was observed and quantified for a data set of 195 concurrent measurements of SSC, turbidity, discharge, velocity, and volumetric PSD collected during five stormflows in 2009–2010 on Yellow River at Gees Mill Road in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. Regressions of SSC-normalized turbidity (T/SSC) on concurrently measured PSD percentiles show an inverse, exponential influence of particle size on turbidity that is not constant across the size range of the PSD. The majority of the influence of PSD on T/SSC is from particles of fine-silt and smaller sizes (finer than 16 microns). This study shows that small changes in the often assumed stability of the PSD are significant to SSC~T relations. Changes of only 5 microns in the fine silt and smaller size fractions of suspended sediment PSD can produce hysteresis in the SSC~T rating that can increase error and produce bias. Observed SSC~T hysteresis may be an indicator of changes in sediment properties during stormflows and of potential changes in sediment sources. Trends in the PSD time series indicate that sediment transport is capacity-limited for sand-sized sediment in the channel and supply-limited for fine silt and smaller sediment from the hillslope.

  4. Mapping Long-Term Changes in Mangrove Species Composition and Distribution in the Sundarbans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Kumer Ghosh

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Sundarbans mangrove forest is an important resource for the people of the Ganges Delta. It plays an important role in the local as well as global ecosystem by absorbing carbon dioxide and other pollutants from air and water, offering protection to millions of people in the Ganges Delta against cyclone and water surges, stabilizing the shore line, trapping sediment and nutrients, purifying water, and providing services for human beings, such as fuel wood, medicine, food, and construction materials. However, this mangrove ecosystem is under threat, mainly due to climate change and anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic and climate change-induced degradation, such as over-exploitation of timber and pollution, sea level rise, coastal erosion, increasing salinity, effects of increasing number of cyclones and higher levels of storm surges function as recurrent threats to mangroves in the Sundarbans. In this situation, regular and detailed information on mangrove species composition, their spatial distribution and the changes taking place over time is very important for a thorough understanding of mangrove biodiversity, and this information can also lead to the adoption of management practices designed for the maximum sustainable yield of the Sundarbans forest resources. We employed a maximum likelihood classifier technique to classify images recorded by the Landsat satellite series and used post classification comparison techniques to detect changes at the species level. The image classification resulted in overall accuracies of 72%, 83%, 79% and 89% for the images of 1977, 1989, 2000 and 2015, respectively. We identified five major mangrove species and detected changes over the 38-year (1977–2015 study period. During this period, both Heritiera fomes and Excoecaria agallocha decreased by 9.9%, while Ceriops decandra, Sonneratia apelatala, and Xylocarpus mekongensis increased by 12.9%, 380.4% and 57.3%, respectively.

  5. Effect of Oxidation Degree on Valence Change and Distribution of Octahedral Fe Element in Biotite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Ziqian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the valence change and distribution of iron elements in octahedral vacancies of biotite were studied in the oxidation process. The biotite and saturated barium nitrate solution were mixed in dilute hydrochloric acid under hydrothermal reaction conditions, the solid after reaction was used as the test sample. Firstly, the remainder potassium and iron content were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry(AAS. Secondly, the state of iron along with oxidation degree increased was analyzed, in addition, the phase composition and the change of layer spacing in samples was detected by X-ray diffraction(XRD. Thirdly, The variation mode of Si-O bond were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(FT-IR.This research was adopted hydrogen ions in diluted hydrochloric acid and nitrate ions in barium nitrate to provide oxidation environment for reaction, and the oxidation degree was controlled by adjusted the amount of hydrogen ion introduced. We found out that the amount of hydrogen ion is positively correlated with oxidation degree in biotite, and the deeper oxidation degree in biotite, the lower electronegativity of singer layer. Potassium and iron element would be release out of micaceous structure during the biotite oxidation. The higher the oxidation degree is, the greater the releasing happen. The charge density combining Fe oxidation and releasing firstly increased then decreased with the oxidation degree turned greater. During the oxidation, the Si-O vibrated would change from parallel layer vibration model to vertical vibration model.

  6. Challenging the Concept of Natural Distributions: Global Change Turns Trees Into Weeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; O'Leary, B.; Burd, M.

    2015-12-01

    National parks and nature reserves are set aside to preserve certain ecosystems, reflecting species distributions at a moment in time. Changing climate and fire dynamics can mean that the species most suited to that area are different, leading new tree species to 'invade' the conservation areas. Pittosporum undulatum is an invasive tree native tree species with a natural range from southeast Queensland to Eastern Victoria, Australia. Soon after European settlement this species became a popular ornamental tree in gardens and was planted outside of its natural range across the continent and introduced to the USA (where it is known as Victorian Box), the Hawaiian Islands, Jamaica, southern Africa and the Azores. The reason this is important is because high density of P. undulatum lead to reduced biodiversity and often the complete suppression of regeneration of exiting forest trees. In Australia, changes in fire dynamics have played a major part in its in dominance. New strategies for forest management were proposed by Gleadow an Ashton in the 1980s, but lack of action has led us to predict that the entire Dandenong Ranges, near Melbourne, will be invaded within 25 years resulting in the loss of a major recreational and conservation area. This is a model of the type of problems that can be expected as the climate envelope for species changes in the coming century, challenging the very concept of a "native ".

  7. Lock-in and change: Distributed generation in Denmark in a long-term perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vleuten, Erik van der; Raven, Rob

    2006-01-01

    There is a renewed attention for distributed generation (DG) in European electricity sectors, but implementing DG is often problematic. This article studies the current relative success of DG in Denmark. We take into account not only recent drivers of change such as energy policy and green activism, but also long-term stability and change in the electricity supply sector. In particular we analyse the lock-in on centralized electricity supply, that still frustrates DG development elsewhere. We discuss three successive national electricity regimes, analysing regime lock-in and change in terms of technologies, actors, institutions and the position of DG. Our analysis shows that Danish energy policy as well as innovative activity by key actors indeed were crucial to the recent DG revival in Denmark. On the other hand, our long-term perspective shows that Danish energy policy and actor strategies were tuned to specifically Danish opportunities and barriers created during earlier regimes. These include experience with wind turbines and CHP as well as urban municipal and rural cooperative involvement. Copying the Danish energy policy model to other countries, regardless of national specific opportunities and barriers, will therefore not guarantee a similar outcome

  8. Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, E.; Shiklomanov, A.; Okladnikov, I.; Prusevich, A.; Titov, A.

    2016-11-01

    We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far.

  9. Surface ozone in China: present-day distribution and long-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Xu, W.

    2017-12-01

    Reliable knowledge of spatio-temporal variations of surface ozone is highly needed to assess the impacts of ozone on human health, ecosystem and climate. Although regional distributions and trends of surface ozone in European and North American countries have been well characterized, little is known about the variability of surface ozone in many other countries, including China, where emissions of ozone precursors have been changing rapidly in recent decades. Here we present the first comprehensive description of present-day (2013-2017) distribution and long-term changes of surface ozone in mainland China. Recent ozone measurements from China's air quality monitoring network (AQMN) are analyzed to show present-day distributions of a few ozone exposure metrics for urban environment. Long-term measurements of ozone at six background sites, a rural site and an urban are used to study the trends of ozone in background, rural and urban air, respectively. The average levels of ozone at the AQMN sites (mainly urban) are close to those found at many European and North American sites. However, ozone at most of the sites shows very large diurnal and seasonal variations so that ozone nonattainment can occur in many cities, particularly those in the North China Plain (NCP), the south of Northeast China (NEC), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Sichuan Basin-Chongqing region (SCB). In all these regions, particularly in the NCP, the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentration can significantly exceed the national limit (75 ppb). High annual sum of ozone means over 35 ppb (SOMO35) exist mainly in the NCP, NEC and YRD, with regional averages over 4000 ppb·d. Surface ozone has significantly increased at Waliguan (a baseline site in western China) and Shangdianzi (a background site in the NCP), and decreased in winter and spring at Longfengshan (a background site in Northeast China). No clear trend can be derived from long-term measurements

  10. Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

    2015-01-01

    Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing

  11. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Martin A. Spetich; Jacob S. Fraser

    2018-01-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are notwell represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts.We investigate how species biological...

  12. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

    2018-09-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Rapacciuolo

    Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

  14. The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO)-A Change Detection Array in the Pacific Arctic Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebmeier, J. M.; Moore, S. E.; Cooper, L. W.; Frey, K. E.; Pickart, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    The Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean is experiencing major reductions in seasonal sea ice extent and increases in sea surface temperatures. One of the key uncertainties in this region is how the marine ecosystem will respond to seasonal shifts in the timing of spring sea ice retreat and/or delays in fall sea ice formation. Variations in upper ocean water hydrography, planktonic production, pelagic-benthic coupling and sediment carbon cycling are all influenced by sea ice and temperature changes. Climate changes are likely to result in shifts in species composition and abundance, northward range expansions, and changes in lower trophic level productivity that can directly cascade and affect the life cycles of higher trophic level organisms. Several regionally critical marine sites in the Pacific Arctic sector that have very high biomass and are focused foraging points for apex predators have been re-occupied during multiple international cruises. The data documenting the importance of these ecosystem "hotspots" provide a growing marine time-series from the northern Bering Sea to Barrow Canyon at the boundary of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Results from these studies show spatial changes in carbon production and export to the sediments as indicated by infaunal community composition and biomass, shifts in sediment grain size on a S-to-N latitudinal gradient, and range extensions for lower trophic levels and further northward migration of higher trophic organisms, such as gray whales. There is also direct evidence of negative impacts on ice dependent species, such as walrus and polar bears. To more systematically track the broad biological response to sea ice retreat and associated environmental change, an international consortium of scientists are developing a "Distributed Biological Observatory" (DBO) that includes selected biological measurements at multiple trophic levels. The DBO currently focuses on five regional biological "hotspot" locations along a

  15. The dose distribution and DVH change analysis wing to effect of the patient setup error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyung Tae; Ju, Sang Gyu; Ahn, Jae Hong; Park, Young Hwan

    2004-01-01

    The setup error due to the patient and the staff from radiation treatment as the reason which is important the treatment record could be decided is a possibility of effect. The SET-UP ERROR of the patient analyzes the effect of dose distribution and DVH from radiation treatment of the patient. This test uses human phantom and when C-T scan doing, It rotated the Left direction of the human phantom and it made SET-UP ERROR, Standard plan and 3 mm, 5 mm, 7 mm, 10 mm, 15 mm, 20 mm with to distinguish, it made the C-T scan error. With the result, The SET-UP ERROR got each C-T image Using RTP equipment It used the plan which is used generally from clinical - Box plan, 3 Dimension plan( identical angle 5beam plan) Also, ( CTV+1cm margin, CTV+0.5cm margin, CTV+0.3,cm margin = PTV) it distinguished the standard plan and each set-up error plan and the plan used a dose distribution and the DVH and it analyzed. The Box 4 the plan and 3 Dimension plan which it bites it got similar an dose distribution and DVH in 3 mm, 5 mm From rotation error and Rectilinear movement (0%-2%). Rotation error and rectilinear error 7 mm, 10 mm, 15 mm, 20 mm appeared effect it will go mad to a enough change in treatment (2%-11%) The diminishes the effect of the SET-UP ERROR must reduce move with tension of the patient Also, we are important accessory development and the supply that it reducing of reproducibility and the move.

  16. Identification of the heart wall and chamber based on temporal change of ultrasonic scatterer distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Kohei; Taki, Hirofumi; Kanai, Hiroshi

    2017-07-01

    In most current methods for evaluating the cardiac function by ultrasound, the heart wall area is identified manually by an examiner. To eliminate examiner dependence and to improve usability, an automatic heart wall identification method is desirable. Identification based on only echogenicity often fails because of low echogenicity of some areas of the heart wall. In the present study, to determine more essential features, we focused on the relative temporal change of ultrasonic scatterer distribution and proposed three features for identification of the heart wall and the chamber: cross-correlation of RF signals, that of envelopes, and spatial dispersion of movement vectors in small regions. In an in vivo experiment, using echogenicity and the three features, we identified the heart wall and the chamber in the left ventricular long-axis view, resulting in criteria of separability J of 1.69, 1.40, and 3.02 using these features compared with the result of 0.979 using echogenicity.

  17. Modelling the Effects of Temperature and Cloud Cover Change on Mountain Permafrost Distribution, Northwest Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnaventure, P. P.; Lewkowicz, A. G.

    2008-12-01

    permafrost distribution in the long-term than the probable range of cloud cover changes. Modelled results for the individual areas respond according to the hypsometry of the terrain and the relative strength of elevation and PISR in the regression models. This study indicates that significant changes to the distribution and extent of mountain permafrost in northwest Canada can be expected in the next few decades. References Bonnaventure, P.P. and Lewkowicz, A.G. (2008). Mountain permafrost probability mapping using the BTS method in two climatically dissimilar locations, northwest Canada. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 45, 443-455. Lewkowicz, A.G. and Bonnaventure, P.P. (2008). Interchangeability of local mountain permafrost probability models, northwest Canada. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 19, 49-62.

  18. The role of technological availability for the distributive impacts of climate change mitigation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lueken, Michael; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Knopf, Brigitte; Leimbach, Marian; Luderer, Gunnar; Bauer, Nico

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of the availability of low-carbon technologies on the regional distribution of mitigation costs are analyzed in a global multi-regional integrated assessment model. Three effects on regional consumption losses are distinguished: domestic measures, trade of fossil energy carriers and trade of emission permits. Key results are: (i) GDP losses and a redirection of investments in the energy system towards capital-intensive technologies are major contributions to regional consumption losses. (ii) A devaluation of tradable fossil energy endowments contributes largely to the mitigation costs of fossil fuel exporters. (iii) In case of reduced availability of low-carbon technologies, the permit market volume and associated monetary redistributions increase. The results suggest that the availability of a broad portfolio of low-carbon technologies could facilitate negotiations on the permit allocation scheme in a global cap-and-trade system. - Highlights: → We analyze the distribution of climate change mitigation costs among world regions. → We quantify contributions from various effects on regional costs. → The interference of world trade and low-carbon technologies is essential. → A broad portfolio of technologies helps international negotiations.

  19. The Changing Distribution of Teacher Qualifications Across Schools: A Statewide Perspective Post-NCLB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen J. DeAngelis

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent policy initiatives, including NCLB's highly qualified teacher provisions, have sought to improve the qualifications of teachers and their distribution across schools. Little is known, however, about the impact of these policies. In this study, we use population data on teachers and schools in Illinois to examine changes in the level and distribution of teacher qualifications from 2001 to 2006. We find that schools in Chicago, especially those serving the highest percentages of low-income and minority students, experienced the greatest improvements in teacher qualifications during the period. In addition, high-poverty schools in most other locales in the state registered small to moderate improvements, which narrowed the gap in teacher qualifications between high- and low-poverty schools across Illinois. Improvements in the certification status of experienced teachers and the recruitment of new teachers with stronger academic qualifications both contributed to these gains. The results reveal a tradeoff for disadvantaged schools seeking to improve both teacher qualifications and teacher experience levels, thereby calling into question the near-term feasibility of NCLB provisions that aim to simultaneously eliminate inequities across schools in both.       

  20. Impact of Climate Change on Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.; Fedotova, E. V.

    2018-05-01

    An assessment of the overall impact of the observed and expected climatic changes on energy production, distribution, and consumption in Russia is presented. Climate model results of various complexity and evaluation data on the vulnerability of various energy production sectors to climate change are presented. It is shown that, due to the increase of air temperature, the efficiency of electricity production at thermal and nuclear power plants declines. According to the climate model results, the production of electricity at TPPs and NPPs by 2050 could be reduced by 6 billion kW h due to the temperature increase. At the same time, as a result of simulation, the expected increase in the rainfall amount and river runoff in Russia by 2050 could lead to an increase in the output of HPP by 4-6% as compared with the current level, i.e., by 8 billion kW h. For energy transmission and distribution, the climate warming will mean an increase in transmission losses, which, according to estimates, may amount to approximately 1 billion kW h by 2050. The increase of air temperature in summer will require higher energy consumption for air conditioning, which will increase by approximately 6 billion kW h by 2050. However, in total, the optimal energy consumption in Russia, corresponding to the postindustrial level, will decrease by 2050 by approximately 150 billion kW h as a result of climate- induced changes. The maximum global warming impact is focused on the heat demand sector. As a result of a decrease in the heating degree-days by 2050, the need for space heating is expected to fall by 10-15%, which will cause a fuel conservation sufficient for generating approximately 140 billion kW h of electricity. Hence, a conclusion about the positive direct impact of climate change on the Russia's energy sector follows, which is constituted in the additional available energy resource of approximately 300 billion kW h per year.

  1. Phase distribution and microstructural changes of self-compacting cement paste at elevated temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, G.; Liu, X.; De Schutter, G.; Taerwe, L.; Vandevelde, P.

    2007-01-01

    Self-compacting concrete, as a new smart building material with various advanced properties, has been used for a wide range of structures and infrastructures. However little investigation have been reported on the properties of Self-compacting when it is exposed to elevated temperatures. Previous experiments on fire test have shown the differences between high performance concrete and traditional concrete at elevated temperature. This difference is largely depending on the microstructural properties of concrete matrix, i.e. the cement paste, especially on the porosity, pore size distribution and the connectivity of pores in cement pastes. In this contribution, the investigations are focused on the cement paste. The phase distribution and microstructural changes of self-compacting cement paste at elevated temperatures are examined by mercury intrusion porosimetry and scanning electron microscopy. The chemical decomposition of self-compacting cement paste at different temperatures is determined by thermogravimetric analysis. The experimental results of self-compacting cement paste are compared with those of high performance cement paste and traditional cement paste. It was found that self-compacting cement paste shows a higher change of the total porosity in comparison with high performance cement paste. When the temperature is higher than 700 deg. C, a dramatic loss of mass was observed in the self-compacting cement paste samples with addition of limestone filler. This implies that the SCC made by this type of self-compacting cement paste will probably show larger damage once exposed to fire. Investigation has shown that 0.5 kg/m 3 of Polypropylene fibers in the self-compacting cement paste can avoid the damage efficiently

  2. Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Gordon; Skagen, Susan K.

    2017-01-01

    To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

  3. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  4. Spatio-temporal changes in the distribution of phytopigments and phytoplanktonic groups at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smythe-Wright, Denise; Boswell, Stephen; Kim, Young-Nam; Kemp, Alan

    2010-08-01

    We have made a comprehensive study of pigment distributions and microscopically determined phytoplankton abundances within the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP) location in the North Atlantic to better understand phytoplankton variability, and make some suggestions regarding the composition of the material falling to the sea bed and its impacts on benthic organisms such as Amperima rosea. The area has been the focus of many studies of ocean fluxes and benthic communities over recent years, but little attention has been given to the spatio-temporal variability in the surface waters. Dawn casts over a 12-day period at the PAP mooring site (48.83°N 16.5°W) revealed the presence of only one species, the diatom Actinocyclus exiguus, at bloom concentrations for just 5 days. Smaller populations of other diatoms and the dinoflagellates Gymnodinium and Gyrodinium were also present at this time. Following this 5-day interval, a mixed population of small-sized dinoflagellates, prymnesiophytes, prasinophytes, chrysophytes and cyanobacteria occurred. It is clear from concomitant CTD/bottle surveys that rapid changes in phytoplankton community structure at a fixed time series position do not necessarily reflect a degradation or manifestation of one particular species but rather represent the movement of eddies and other water masses within very short timescales. These cause substantial variability in the species class and size fraction that may explain the variability in carbon export that has been seen at the PAP site. We also make some suggestions on the variable composition of the material falling to the seabed and its impact on benthic organisms such as Amperima rosea.

  5. Explaining Poverty Evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Hussain, Mohammad Azhar; Jones, Edward Samuel

    Measuring poverty remains a complex and contentious issue. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa where poverty rates are higher, information bases typically weaker, and the underlying determinants of welfare relatively volatile. This paper employs recently collected data on household...... consumption in Mozambique to examine the evolution of consumption poverty with focus on the period 2002/03 to 2008/09. The paper contributes in four areas. First, the period in question was characterized by major movements in international commodity prices. Mozambique provides an illuminating case study...... of the implications of these world commodity price changes for living standards of poor people. Second, a novel ‘backcasting’ approach using a computable general equilibrium model of Mozambique, linked to a poverty module is introduced. Third, the backcasting approach is also employed to rigorously examine...

  6. Distributed Research Center for Analysis of Regional Climatic Changes and Their Impacts on Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, A. I.; Okladnikov, I.; Gordov, E. P.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Titov, A. G.

    2016-12-01

    Presented is a collaborative project carrying out by joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and and their impacts on the environment over the Northern extratropical areas. In the framework of the project new approaches to "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) are being developed. It will be deployed on technical platforms of both institutions and applied in research of climate change and its consequences. Datasets available at NCEI and IMCES include multidimensional arrays of climatic, environmental, demographic, and socio-economic characteristics. The project is aimed at solving several major research and engineering tasks: 1) structure analysis of huge heterogeneous climate and environmental geospatial datasets used in the project, their preprocessing and unification; 2) development of a new distributed storage and processing model based on a "shared nothing" paradigm; 3) development of a dedicated database of metadata describing geospatial datasets used in the project; 4) development of a dedicated geoportal and a high-end graphical frontend providing intuitive user interface, internet-accessible online tools for analysis of geospatial data and web services for interoperability with other geoprocessing software packages. DRC will operate as a single access point to distributed archives of spatial data and online tools for their processing. Flexible modular computational engine running verified data processing routines will provide solid results of geospatial data analysis. "Cloud" data analysis and visualization approach will guarantee access to the DRC online tools and data from all over the world. Additionally, exporting of data

  7. The effects of land use change on mercury distribution in soils of Alta Floresta, Southern Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacerda, Luiz D.; Souza, Margareth de; Ribeiro, Mario G.

    2004-01-01

    This study presents the spatial distribution, degree of contamination and storage capacity of Hg in surface forest and pasture soils from Alta Floresta, Southern Amazon, a significant gold mining site from 1980 to 1996. During that period, average annual gold production was about 6.5 tons, with an estimated Hg annual emission to the environment of about 8.8 tons, 60-80% of it being emitted to the atmosphere. Mercury sources to the region are mining sites and gold-dealer shops at the city of Alta Floresta, where gold is smelted and commercialized. Mercury concentrations in forest soils (15-248 ng g -1 , average=61.9 ng g -1 ) were 1.5-3.0 times higher than in pasture soils (10-74 ng g -1 , average=33.8 ng g -1 ), suggesting strong re-mobilization after deforestation. Highest Hg concentrations were found within a distance of 20-30 km from mining sites in both soil types. The influence of the refining operations within the city of Alta Floresta, however, was less clear. Somewhat higher concentrations were observed only within a 5 km radius from the city center where gold-dealer shops are located. Wind direction controls the spatial distribution of Hg. Background concentrations (15-50 ng g -1 ) were generally found at the outer perimeter of the sampling grid, about 40 km from sources. This suggests that Hg released from mining and refining activities undergoes rapid deposition. Estimated cumulative Hg burdens for the first 10 cm of soil averaged 8.3 mg m -2 and 4.9 mg m -2 , for forest and pasture soils respectively and compare well with ultisols and hydromorphic oxisols, but were lower than those found in yellow-red and yellow latosols and podsols from other Amazonian areas. Our results show that changing land use in the Amazon is a strong re-mobilizing agent of Hg deposited on soils from the atmosphere. - Land use change is a strong re-mobilizing agent of Hg distribution in Amazon soils

  8. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  9. The changing food outlet distributions and local contextual factors in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsin-Jen; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-16

    Little is known about the dynamics of the food outlet distributions associated with local contextual factors in the U.S. This study examines the changes in food stores/services at the 5-digit Zip Code Tabulated Area (ZCTA5) level in the U.S., and assesses contextual factors associated with the changes. Data from 27,878 ZCTA5s in the contiguous United States without an extreme change in the number of 6 types of food stores/services (supermarkets, small-size grocery stores, convenience stores, fresh/specialty food markets, carry-out restaurants, and full-service restaurants) were used. ZCTA5s' contextual factors were from the 2000 Census. Numbers of food stores/services were derived from the Census Business Pattern databases. Linear regression models assessed contextual factors' influences (racial/ethnic compositions, poverty rate, urbanization level, and foreign-born population%) on 1-year changes in food stores/services during 2000-2001, adjusted for population size, total business change, and census regions. Small-size grocery stores and fresh/specialty food markets increased more and convenience stores decreased more in Hispanic-predominant than other areas. Among supermarket-free places, new supermarkets were less likely to be introduced into black-predominant than white-predominant areas (odds ratio (OR) = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.30-0.92). However, among areas without the following type of store at baseline, supermarket (OR = 0.48 (0.33-0.70)), small-size grocery stores (OR = 1.32 (1.08-1.62)), and fresh/specialty food markets (OR = 0.70 (0.53-0.92)) were less likely to be introduced into areas of low foreign-born population than into areas of high foreign-born population. Higher poverty rate was associated with a greater decrease in supermarket, a less decrease in small-size grocery stores, and a less increase in carry-out restaurants (all p for trends restaurants than suburban areas. Local area characteristics affect 1-year changes in food

  10. Modelling climate change impact on the spatial distribution of fresh water snails hosting trematodes in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Ulrik B; Stendel, Martin; Midzi, Nicholas; Mduluza, Takafira; Soko, White; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Vennervald, Birgitte J; Mukaratirwa, Samson; Kristensen, Thomas K

    2014-12-12

    - suitability areas and that temperature may be the main driving factor. It is concluded that future climate change in Zimbabwe may cause a reduced spatial distribution of suitable habitat of host snails with a probable exception of Bi. pfeifferi, the intermediate host for intestinal schistosomiasis that may increase around 2055 before declining towards 2100.

  11. Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

    2018-06-01

    Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

  12. Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

    2017-07-01

    Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

  13. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Jiang

    Full Text Available Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070. The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.

  14. Distributed modelling of climate change impacts on snow sublimation in Northern Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menzel

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986–2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 2071–2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm. The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.

  15. Changes in the Population Distribution and Transport Network of Saint Petersburg

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoling Li

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors explores the interdependence between demographic changes and transport network centrality, using Saint Petersburg as an example. The article describes the demographic data for the period 2002—2015 and the transportation network data of 2006. The authors employ several methods of demographic research; they identified the centre of gravity of the population, produce the standard deviational ellipsis and use the kernel density estimation. The street network centrality of Saint Petersburg was analyzed using the Multiple Centrality Assessment Model (MCA and the Urban Network Analysis Tool for ArcGIS. The analysis of the population distribution in Saint Petersburg shows that each area of the city has seen their population grow over the last thirteen years. However, it is the population of suburban areas that increased the most. The core area of the city has the tendency of outward diffusion, and the population gravity centre has been moving northwards. Spatial characteristics of the population growth, changes in the population gravity centre, the standard deviational ellipse and characteristics of the street network centrality show that Saint Petersburg is at the final stage of urbanization and its development pattern is similar to that of other major cities.

  16. Emerging ecosystems change the spatial distribution of top carnivores even in poorly populated areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Facundo Barbar

    Full Text Available Humans affect biological diversity and species distribution patterns by modifying resource availability and generating novel environments where generalist species benefit and specialist species are rare. In particular, cities create local homogenization while roads fragment habitat, although both processes can increase food availability for some species that may be able to take advantage of this new source. We studied space use by birds of prey in relation to human construction, hypothesizing that these birds would be affected even in poorly populated areas. We worked in Northwestern Patagonia, Argentina, which is experiencing a high population growth, but still having very large unpopulated areas. We related the presence of raptors with different sources of human disturbance and found that both the abundance and richness of these birds were positively associated with anthropogenic environments. These results are driven mostly by a strong association between the medium-sized generalist species and these novel environments (mainly roads and cities. This may create an imbalance in intra-guild competitive abilities, modifying the normal structures of top carnivore hierarchies. Indeed, the structure of raptor communities seems to be changing, even in poorly populated areas, with anthropogenic constructions seemingly producing changes in wild areas more promptly than thought, a cause for concern in ecosystems conservation issues.

  17. Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of riparian forest distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana H Ikeda

    Full Text Available We examined the impact climate change (CC will have on the availability of climatically suitable habitat for three native and one exotic riparian species. Due to its increasing prevalence in arid regions throughout the western US, we predicted that an exotic species, Tamarix, would have the greatest increase in suitable habitat relative to native counterparts under CC. We used an ecological niche model to predict range shifts of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, Salix exigua and Tamarix, from present day to 2080s, under five general circulation models and one climate change scenario (A1B. Four major findings emerged. 1 Contrary to our original hypothesis, P. fremontii is projected to have the greatest increase in suitable habitat under CC, followed closely by Tamarix. 2 Of the native species, S. gooddingii and S. exigua showed the greatest loss in predicted suitable habitat due to CC. 3 Nearly 80 percent of future P. fremontii and Salix habitat is predicted to be affected by either CC or Tamarix by the 2080s. 4 By the 2080s, 20 percent of S. gooddingii habitat is projected to be affected by both Tamarix and CC concurrently, followed by S. exigua (19 percent and P. fremontii (13 percent. In summary, while climate change alone will negatively impact both native willow species, Tamarix is likely to affect a larger portion of all three native species' distributions. We discuss these and other results in the context of prioritizing restoration and conservation efforts to optimize future productivity and biodiversity. As we are accounting for only direct effects of CC and Tamarix on native habitat, we present a possible hierarchy of effects- from the direct to the indirect- and discuss the potential for the indirect to outweigh the direct effects. Our results highlight the need to account for simultaneous challenges in the face of CC.

  18. Changes of dose delivery distribution within the first month after permanent interstitial brachytherapy for prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinkawa, M.; Gagel, B.; Piroth, M.D.; Eble, M.J.; Borchers, H.; Jakse, G.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: to evaluate changes of dose distribution for both the prostate and the surrounding tissues after permanent brachy therapy as monotherapy for prostate cancer. Patients and methods: in 35 patients, CT scans were performed before, 1 day after (day 1) and 1 month after the implantation (day 30). Changes of prostate volume, dosimetric parameters, and distances between posterior prostate contour and rectal wall as well as prostate contour and prescription isodose were analyzed. Results: prostate volume increased from 37 ± 11 cm 3 (mean ± standard deviation) to 49 ± 12 cm 3 on day 1 and dropped to 40 ± 9 cm 3 on day 30. Prostate V 100 increased from 87 ± 7% to 90 ± 7%, prostate D90 from 138 ± 21 Gy to 151 ± 30 Gy. Mean rectal volume covered by the prescription isodose rose from 0.4 cm 3 to 1.0 cm 3 ; a changing distance between the prostate and rectal wall was excluded as a reason. Prostate D 90 (day 1) and rectum V 100 (day 30) proved to be significantly higher for larger prostate sizes. The distance between the prescription isodose and the prostate contour increased particularly at the posterior and inferior borders: 1.9 mm and 2.5 mm on average (0.1 mm and -0.7 mm at opposite borders, respectively). Conclusion: with a decreasing edema of the prostate, an increasing dose both to the prostate and the anterior rectal wall resulted - the postimplant interval is essential for the dosimetry report. Due to a larger edema, a higher prescription dose might be needed for optimal cancer control in smaller prostates. Compared to day 1, the dose to the surrounding tissues increased on day 30, particularly at the posterior and inferior prostate borders. (orig.)

  19. Changes in the Fine Structure of Stochastic Distributions as a Consequence of Space-Time Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shnoll S. E.

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available This is a survey of the fine structure stochastic distributions in measurements obtained by me over 50 years. It is shown: (1 The forms of the histograms obtained at each geographic point (at each given moment of time are similar with high probability, even if we register phenomena of completely different nature --- from biochemical reactions to the noise in a gravitational antenna, or alpha-decay. (2 The forms of the histograms change with time. The iterations of the same form have the periods of the stellar day (1.436 min, the solar day (1.440 min, the calendar year (365 solar days, and the sidereal year (365 solar days plus 6 hours and 9 min. (3 At the same instants of the local time, at different geographic points, the forms of the histograms are the same, with high probability. (4 The forms of the histograms depend on the locations of the Moon and the Sun with respect to the horizon. (5 All the facts are proof of the dependance of the form of the histograms on the location of the measured objects with respect to stars, the Sun, and the Moon. (6 At the instants of New Moon and the maxima of solar eclipses there are specific forms of the histograms. (7 It is probable that the observed correlations are not connected to flow power changes (the changes of the gravity force --- we did not find the appropriate periods in changes in histogram form. (8 A sharp anisotropy of space was discovered, registered by alpha-decay detectors armed with collimators. Observations at 54 North (the collimator was pointed at the Pole Star showed no day-long periods, as was also the case for observations at 82 North, near the Pole. Histograms obtained by observations with an Easterly-directed collimator were determined every 718 minutes (half stellar day and with observations using a Westerly-directed collimator. (9 Collimators rotating counter-clockwise, in parallel with the celestial equator, gave the probability of changes in histograms as the number of the

  20. Changes in the Fine Structure of Stochastic Distributions as a Consequence of Space-Time Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shnoll S. E.

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available This is a survey of the fine structure stochastic distributions in measurements obtained by me over 50 years. It is shown: (1 The forms of the histograms obtained at each geographic point (at each given moment of time are similar with high probability, even if we register phenomena of completely different nature — from biochemical reactions to the noise in a gravitational antenna, or α-decay. (2 The forms of the histograms change with time. The iterations of the same form have the periods of the stellar day (1.436 min, the solar day (1.440 min, the calendar year (365 solar days, and the sidereal year (365 solar days plus 6 hours and 9 min. (3 At the same instants of the local time, at different geographic points, the forms of the histograms are the same, with high probability. (4 The forms of the histograms depend on the locations of the Moon and the Sun with respect to the horizon. (5 All the facts are proof of the dependance of the form of the histograms on the location of the measured objects with respect to stars, the Sun, and the Moon. (6 At the instants of New Moon and the maxima of solar eclipses there are specific forms of the histograms. (7 It is probable that the observed correlations are not connected to flow power changes (the changes of the gravity force — we did not find the appropriate periods in changes in histogram form. (8 A sharp anisotropy of space was discovered, registered by α-decay detectors armed with collimators. Observations at 54◦ North (the collimator was pointed at the Pole Star showed no day-long periods, as was also the case for observations at 82◦ North, near the Pole. Histograms obtained by observations with an Easterly-directed collimator were determined every 718 minutes (half stellar day and with observations using a Westerly-directed collimator. (9 Collimators rotating counter-clockwise, in parallel with the celestial equator, gave the probability of changes in histograms as the number of the

  1. Distribution of basic sediments (bedload transport) on changes in coastal coastline Donggala, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiruddin

    2018-03-01

    This study entitled "Distribution of Bedload Transport Against Coastline Changes in Donggala Coast", the formulation of the problem (1) how much of the estimated bedload transport in Donggala Bodies; (2) where were the location of erosion and sedimentation strong point based on the estimation of bed load transport; (3) the extent to which the prediction of shoreline change rate of transport of sediments in coastal areas Donggala. This study aims to: (1) the calculation of estimated bed load transport in Donggala waters; (2) determining the location of the point of erosion and sedimentation strong basis of estimated bedload transport; (3) the prediction of shoreline change rate of transport of sediments in coastal areas Donggala.The survey method used in this research to collect primary data include: (1) decision point waypoint coordinates of each location of measurement; (2) measurement of height, period and direction of the waves; (3) a large measurement of sediment transport; (4) The angle measurement coastline, angle of attack and wave direction, and secondary data include: (1) information from the public; (2) the physical condition data field. The results showed that: (1) general estimate sediment transport base in each location data collection is varied. This is due to the different points of the coastline as well as the angle of attack of the shoreline waters broke Donggala; (2) strong abrasion at the study site occurs at the point Ts4 (622.75 m3/yr) and TS11 (755.25 m3/yr) located in the Village Tosale and point Tw7 and Tw17 (649.25 m3/yr) in Village of Towale. As for the strong sedimentation occurs at the point Ts3 (450.50 m3/yr) located in the Village Tosale and Tg3 point (357.75 m3/yr) located in the Village Tolonggano; (3) of the predicted outcome coastline changes based on the input data estimate sediment transport, beaches and waves parameters is seen that the changes in the location prophyl coastline tends toward research into or undergo a process of

  2. Temperature induced changes in size dependent distributions of two boreal and three Lusitanian flatfish species: A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hal, van R.; Kooten, van T.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in spatial distribution in several fish species have been related to recent increase in global temperature. In the North Sea, both a poleward shift and a shift to deeper water have been observed. Here, we study the underlying mechanism of these shifts in a comparative study of the changes in

  3. Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkernell, Stefan; Beszteri, Bánk

    2014-08-01

    Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate

  4. Analytical performance specifications for changes in assay bias (Δbias) for data with logarithmic distributions as assessed by effects on reference change values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Lund, Flemming; Fraser, Callum G

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The distributions of within-subject biological variation are usually described as coefficients of variation, as are analytical performance specifications for bias, imprecision and other characteristics. Estimation of specifications required for reference change values is traditionally...... done using relationship between the batch-related changes during routine performance, described as Δbias, and the coefficients of variation for analytical imprecision (CVA): the original theory is based on standard deviations or coefficients of variation calculated as if distributions were Gaussian....... METHODS: The distribution of between-subject biological variation can generally be described as log-Gaussian. Moreover, recent analyses of within-subject biological variation suggest that many measurands have log-Gaussian distributions. In consequence, we generated a model for the estimation of analytical...

  5. The need to promote behaviour change at the cultural level: one factor explaining the limited impact of the MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual health intervention in rural Tanzania. A process evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wight Daniel

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few of the many behavioral sexual health interventions in Africa have been rigorously evaluated. Where biological outcomes have been measured, improvements have rarely been found. One of the most rigorous trials was of the multi-component MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual health programme, which showed improvements in knowledge and reported attitudes and behaviour, but none in biological outcomes. This paper attempts to explain these outcomes by reviewing the process evaluation findings, particularly in terms of contextual factors. Methods A large-scale, primarily qualitative process evaluation based mainly on participant observation identified the principal contextual barriers and facilitators of behavioural change. Results The contextual barriers involved four interrelated socio-structural factors: culture (i.e. shared practices and systems of belief, economic circumstances, social status, and gender. At an individual level they appeared to operate through the constructs of the theories underlying MEMA kwa Vijana - Social Cognitive Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action – but the intervention was unable to substantially modify these individual-level constructs, apart from knowledge. Conclusion The process evaluation suggests that one important reason for this failure is that the intervention did not operate sufficiently at a structural level, particularly in regard to culture. Recently most structural interventions have focused on gender or/and economics. Complementing these with a cultural approach could address the belief systems that justify and perpetuate gender and economic inequalities, as well as other barriers to behaviour change.

  6. Changes in lipoprotein kinetics associated with type 2 diabetes affect the distribution of lipopolysaccharides among lipoproteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergès, Bruno; Duvillard, Laurence; Lagrost, Laurent; Vachoux, Christelle; Garret, Céline; Bouyer, Karine; Courtney, Michael; Pomié, Céline; Burcelin, Rémy

    2014-07-01

    Lipopolysaccharides (LPSs) are inflammatory components of the outer membrane of Gram-negative bacteria and, in plasma, are mostly associated with lipoproteins. This association is thought to promote their catabolism while reducing their proinflammatory effects. Our aim was to determine the impact of lipoprotein kinetics on plasma LPS distribution and how it may affect patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We performed a kinetic study in 30 individuals (16 T2DM patients, 14 controls) and analyzed the impact of changes in lipoprotein kinetics on LPS distribution among lipoproteins. Plasma LPS levels in T2DM patients were not different from those in controls, but LPS distribution in the two groups was different. Patients with T2DM had higher LPS-very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL; 31% ± 7% vs 22% ± 11%, P = .002), LPS-high-density lipoprotein (HDL; 29% ± 9% vs 19% ± 10%, P = .015), free (nonlipoprotein bound) LPS (10% ± 4% vs 7% ± 4%, P = .043) and lower LPS-low-density lipoprotein (LDL; 30% ± 13% vs 52% ± 16%, P = .001). In multivariable analysis, VLDL-LPS was associated with HDL-LPS (P < .0001); LDL-LPS was associated with VLDL-LPS (P = .004), and VLDL apolipoprotein (apo) B100 catabolism (P = .002); HDL-LPS was associated with free LPS (P < .0001) and VLDL-LPS (P = .033); free LPS was associated with HDL-LPS (P < .0001). In a patient featuring a dramatic decrease in VLDL catabolism due to apoA-V mutation, LDL-LPS was severely decreased (0.044 EU/mL vs 0.788 EU/mL in controls). The difference between T2DM patients and controls for LDL-LPS fraction was no longer significant after controlling for VLDL apoB100 total fractional catabolic rate. Our data suggest that in humans, free LPS transfers first to HDL and then to VLDL, whereas the LPS-bound LDL fraction is mainly derived from VLDL catabolism; the latter may hence represent a LPS catabolic pathway. T2DM patients show lower LDL-LPS secondary to reduced VLDL catabolism, which may represent an

  7. Implications of human induced changes on the distribution of important plant species in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwa Waseem Halmy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of species distribution modeling in deserts is a useful tool for mapping species and assessing the impact of human induced changes on individual species. Such applications are still rare, and this may be attributed to the fact that much of the arid lands and deserts around the world are located in inaccessible areas. Few studies have conducted spatially explicit modeling of plant species distribution in Egypt. The random forest modeling approach was applied to climatic and land-surface parameters to predict the distribution of ten important plant species in an arid landscape in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt. The impact of changes in land use and climate on the distribution of the plant species was assessed. The results indicate that the changes in land use in the area have resulted in habitat loss for all the modeled species. Projected future changes in land use reveals that all the modeled species will continue to suffer habitat loss. The projected impact of modeled climate scenarios (A1B, A2A and B2A on the distribution of the modeled species by 2040 varied. Some of the species were projected to be adversely affected by the changes in climate, while other species are expected to benefit from these changes. The combined impact of the changes in land use and climate pose serious threats to most of the modeled species. The study found that all the species are expected to suffer loss in habitat, except Gymnocarpos decanderus. The study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of land use/climate change scenarios on other species of restricted distribution in the area and can help shape policy and mitigation measures directed toward biodiversity conservation in Egypt.

  8. Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

  9. Changes in speed distribution: Applying aggregated safety effect models to individual vehicle speeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadeby, Anna; Forsman, Åsa

    2017-06-01

    This study investigated the effect of applying two aggregated models (the Power model and the Exponential model) to individual vehicle speeds instead of mean speeds. This is of particular interest when the measure introduced affects different parts of the speed distribution differently. The aim was to examine how the estimated overall risk was affected when assuming the models are valid on an individual vehicle level. Speed data from two applications of speed measurements were used in the study: an evaluation of movable speed cameras and a national evaluation of new speed limits in Sweden. The results showed that when applied on individual vehicle speed level compared with aggregated level, there was essentially no difference between these for the Power model in the case of injury accidents. However, for fatalities the difference was greater, especially for roads with new cameras where those driving fastest reduced their speed the most. For the case with new speed limits, the individual approach estimated a somewhat smaller effect, reflecting that changes in the 15th percentile (P15) were somewhat larger than changes in P85 in this case. For the Exponential model there was also a clear, although small, difference between applying the model to mean speed changes and individual vehicle speed changes when speed cameras were used. This applied both for injury accidents and fatalities. There were also larger effects for the Exponential model than for the Power model, especially for injury accidents. In conclusion, applying the Power or Exponential model to individual vehicle speeds is an alternative that provides reasonable results in relation to the original Power and Exponential models, but more research is needed to clarify the shape of the individual risk curve. It is not surprising that the impact on severe traffic crashes was larger in situations where those driving fastest reduced their speed the most. Further investigations on use of the Power and/or the

  10. Changes in the distribution of radiocesium in the wood of Japanese cedar trees from 2011 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Hideki; Hirano, Yurika; Igei, Shigemitsu; Yokota, Kahori; Arai, Shio; Ito, Hirohisa; Kumata, Atsushi; Yoshida, Hirohisa

    2016-09-01

    The changes in the distribution of (137)Cs in the wood of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) trunks within three years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNP) accident in 2011 were investigated. Thirteen trees were felled to collect samples at 6 forests in 2 regions of the Fukushima prefecture. The radial distribution of (137)Cs in the wood was measured at different heights. Profiles of (137)Cs distribution in the wood changed considerably from 2011 to 2013, and the process of (137)Cs distribution change in the wood was clarified. From 2011 to 2012, the active transportation from sapwood to heartwood and the radial diffusion in heartwood proceeded quickly, and the radial (137)Cs distribution differed according to the vertical positon of trees. From 2012 to 2013, the vertical diffusion of (137)Cs from the treetop to the ground, probably caused by the gradient of (137)Cs concentration in the trunk, was observed. Eventually, the radial (137)Cs distributions were nearly identical at any vertical positions in 2013. Our results suggested that the active transportation from sapwood to heartwood and the vertical and radial diffusion in heartwood proceeded according to the vertical position of the tree and (137)Cs distribution in the wood approached the equilibrium state within three years after the accident. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species' geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies.

  12. Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species’ geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies. PMID:29401494

  13. Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

  14. Impact of anatomical changes on dose distribution of intensity-modulated radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Shaomin; Deng Xiaowu; Zhao Chong; Han Fei; Gao Xingwang; Lu Taixiang; Wang Shi

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To observe the physique and anatomy changes in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) during intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), using repeated CT images and deformable registration technique, and analyze their impact on delivery dose distribution. Methods: Ten NPC patients were randomly selected from those who had received IMRT treatment.Gross tumor volume of nasopharynx (GTV nx ), GTV of metastastatic lymph node (GTV nd ), clinical target volume (CTV) and normal tissue or organ (OAR) were re-contoured on the in-course repeated CT images using a kind of deformable registration and auto-segmentation software according to the original planning contouring. Changes in volume of treatment targets and organs at risk were evaluated and the trends were then analyzed. Dose distributions were recalculated with repeated CT images and compared to the original plans. Results: The volume of GTV nx were decreased by 6.44%, 10.23% and 9.72%(F=1.34, P=0.278) in the 2-, 4- and 6-week after IMRT comparing with before IMRT, with 6.59%, 30.98 % and 35.13 % (F = 9.22, P =0.000) in GTV nd , 0.73%, 1.86% and 1.41% (F=0.33, P=0.722) in CTV 1 , -1.78%, -6.47% and -9.34% (F =16.89, P =0.000) in CTV 2 , 13.96%, 32.97% and 37.77%(F=17.17, P=0.000) in the left parotid, and 3.56% , 29.57% and 35.63% (F = 13.49, P = 0.000) in the right parotid. The mean dose change rate of GTV nx were -0.39%, 0.08% and 0.32% (F =0.15, P =0.860) in the 2-, 4- and 6-week after IMRT comparing with planning faction dose, with 0.53%, 1.19% and 0.69% (F=0.81, P=0.455) in GTV nd , 1.95%, 2.70% and 3.78% (F=0.61, P=0.552) in the spinal cord, 0.32%, 0.81% and 0.62% (F=0.03, P=0.975) in the brain stem, 4.50%, 4.66% and 7.20% (F=0.33, P=0.725) in the left parotid, 2.20%, 7.17% and 7.12% (F= 1.24, P=0.306) in the right parotid. Conclusions: The GTV nd , CTV 2 and parotids shrinks obviously along with the treatment times for NPC patients during IMRT. Although changes in fraction dose of GTV, CTV, spinal

  15. Exercise and type 2 diabetes mellitus: changes in tissue-specific fat distribution and cardiac function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonker, Jacqueline T; de Mol, Pieter; de Vries, Suzanna T; Widya, Ralph L; Hammer, Sebastiaan; van Schinkel, Linda D; van der Meer, Rutger W; Gans, Rijk O B; Webb, Andrew G; Kan, Hermien E; de Koning, Eelco J P; Bilo, Henk J G; Lamb, Hildo J

    2013-11-01

    To prospectively assess the effects of an exercise intervention on organ-specific fat accumulation and cardiac function in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants, and the study protocol was approved by the medical ethics committee. The study followed 12 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (seven men; mean age, 46 years ± 2 [standard error]) before and after 6 months of moderate-intensity exercise, followed by a high-altitude trekking expedition with exercise of long duration. Abdominal, epicardial, and paracardial fat volume were measured by using magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Cardiac function was quantified with cardiac MR, and images were analyzed by a researcher who was supervised by a senior researcher (4 and 21 years of respective experience in cardiac MR). Hepatic, myocardial, and intramyocellular triglyceride (TG) content relative to water were measured with proton MR spectroscopy at 1.5 and 7 T. Two-tailed paired t tests were used for statistical analysis. Exercise reduced visceral abdominal fat volume from 348 mL ± 57 to 219 mL ± 33 (P Exercise decreased hepatic TG content from 6.8% ± 2.3 to 4.6% ± 1.6 (P Exercise did not change epicardial fat volume (P = .9), myocardial TG content (P = .9), intramyocellular lipid content (P = .3), or cardiac function (P = .5). A 6-month exercise intervention in type 2 diabetes mellitus decreased hepatic TG content and visceral abdominal and paracardial fat volume, which are associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but cardiac function was unaffected. Tissue-specific exercise-induced changes in body fat distribution in type 2 diabetes mellitus were demonstrated in this study. RSNA, 2013

  16. Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 1: Measurement techniques, uncertainties and availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hassler

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC and other ozone depleting substance (ODS concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP/World Meteorological Organization (WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument. Archive location information for each data set is also given.

  17. 75 FR 9343 - Nomenclature Change Relating to the Network Distribution Center Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-02

    ... (BMC) to network distribution centers (NDC), by replacing all text references to ``BMC'' with ``NDC..., references as follows: Current text Revised text Bulk Mail Center Network Distribution Center. BMC NDC. Destination Bulk Mail Center Destination Network Distribution Center. DBMC DNDC. Origin Bulk Mail Center...

  18. Land use change affects biogenic silica pool distribution in a subtropical soil toposequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unzué-Belmonte, Dácil; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Cornelis, Jean-Thomas; Barão, Lúcia; Minella, Jean; Meire, Patrick; Struyf, Eric

    2017-07-01

    Land use change (deforestation) has several negative consequences for the soil system. It is known to increase erosion rates, which affect the distribution of elements in soils. In this context, the crucial nutrient Si has received little attention, especially in a tropical context. Therefore, we studied the effect of land conversion and erosion intensity on the biogenic silica pools in a subtropical soil in the south of Brazil. Biogenic silica (BSi) was determined using a novel alkaline continuous extraction where Si / Al ratios of the fractions extracted are used to distinguish BSi and other soluble fractions: Si / Al > 5 for the biogenic AlkExSi (alkaline-extractable Si) and Si / Al soils depending on the slope of the study site (10-53 %), with faster depletion in steeper sites. We show that higher erosion in steeper sites implies increased accumulation of biogenic Si in deposition zones near the bottom of the slope, where rapid burial can cause removal of BSi from biologically active zones. Our study highlights the interaction of erosion strength and land use for BSi redistribution and depletion in a soil toposequence, with implications for basin-scale Si cycling.

  19. The influence of global sea level changes on European shale distribution and gas exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, P.; Cornelius, C.T.; Clarke, H. [Cuadrilla Resources Ltd., Staffordshire (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-01

    Technological advances in directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology have unlocked new supplies of shale gas from reservoirs that were previously considered to be uneconomic. Several companies, both experienced majors and small independents, are currently evaluating the unconventional resource potential of mainland Europe. This paper demonstrated that global sea level changes govern the distribution of marine black shales. The Hallam Curve was used in this study to identify periods of prospective gas shale deposition. In general, these correspond to post-glacial periods of relatively high sea level. Under-filled marginal sedimentary basins are key exploration targets. The geochemical and petrophysical characteristics of the shales deposited under these conditions are often comparable to North American shales, particularly the Barnett Shale which is currently in production. Many orogenic events influence European shales in terms of organic maturity, hydrocarbon generation and fracture generation. The main prospective horizons in ascending stratigraphic sequence are the Alum Shale, Llandovery Shale, Fammenian/Frasnian Shale, Serpukhovian Shale, Toarcian Shale, Kimmeridge Clay and the Tertiary Eocene and Oligocene shales common to central Europe. This paper presented the authors initial exploration strategy, with particular focus on the Lower Palaeozoic of central Europe, the Namurian of northwest England and the Jurassic Posidonia Formation of the Roer Valley Graben in Holland. The potential obstacles to unconventional exploration in Europe include restricted access to surface locations, high water usage, a lack of convenient pipeline infrastructure, strict environmental regulations, a high population density and lack of suitable drilling rigs and well completion equipment. 13 refs., 7 figs.

  20. Present and future potential habitat distribution of Carcharhinus falciformis and Canthidermis maculata by-catch species in the tropical tuna purse-seine fishery under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nerea eLezama Ochoa

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available By-catch species from tropical tuna purse seine fishery have been affected by fishery pressures since the last century; however, the habitat distribution and the climate change impacts on these species are poorly known. With the objective of predicting the potential suitable habitat for a shark (Carcharhinus falciformis and a teleost (Canthidermis maculata in the Indian, Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans, a MaxEnt species distribution model (SDM was developed using data collected by observers in tuna purse seiners. The relative percentage of contribution of some environmental variables (depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and primary production and the potential impact of climate change on species habitat by the end of the century under the A2 scenario (scenario with average concentrations of carbon dioxide of 856 ppm by 2100 were also evaluated. Results showed that by-catch species can be correctly modelled using observed occurrence records and few environmental variables with SDM. Results from projected maps showed that the equatorial band and some coastal upwelling regions were the most suitable areas for both by-catch species in the three oceans in concordance with the main fishing grounds. Sea surface temperature was the most important environmental variable which contributed to explain the habitat distribution of the two species in the three oceans in general. Under climate change scenarios, the largest change in present habitat suitability is observed in the Atlantic Ocean (around 16% of the present habitat suitability area of Carcharhinus falciformis and Canthidermis maculata, respectively whereas the change is less in the Pacific (around 10% and 8% and Indian Oceans (around 3% and 2 %. In some regions such as Somalia, the Atlantic equatorial band or Peru’s coastal upwelling areas, these species could lose potential habitat whereas in the south of the equator in the Indian Ocean, the Benguela System and in the Pacific coast of