Simulating the Cinema Market : How cross-cultural differences in social influence explain box office distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broekhuizen, T.L.J.; Delre, S.A.; Torres, A.

This paper uses a mixed method approach to show how cross-cultural differences in social influences can explain differences in distributions of market shares in different markets. First, we develop a realistic agent-based model that mimics the behavior of movie visitors and incorporates the social

Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

OpenAIRE

Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma

2018-01-01

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and li...

Temperature effects explain continental scale distribution of cyanobacterial toxins

OpenAIRE

Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma

2018-01-01

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and li...

Explaining Consumer Safe Food Handling Through Behavior-Change Theories: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Ian; Reimer, Danielle; Greig, Judy; Meldrum, Richard; Turgeon, Patricia; Waddell, Lisa

2017-11-01

Consumers often engage in unsafe food handling behaviors at home. Previous studies have investigated the ability of behavior-change theories to explain and predict these behaviors. The purpose of this review was to determine which theories are most consistently associated with consumers' safe food handling behaviors across the published literature. A standardized systematic review methodology was used, consisting of the following steps: comprehensive search strategy; relevance screening of identified references; confirmation of relevance and characterization of relevant articles; risk-of-bias assessment; data extraction; and descriptive analysis of study results. A total of 20 relevant studies were identified; they were mostly conducted in Australia (40%) and the United States (35%) and used a cross-sectional design (65%). Most studies targeted young adults (65%), and none focused on high-risk consumer groups. The outcomes of 70% of studies received high overall risk-of-bias ratings, largely due to a lack of control for confounding variables. The most commonly applied theory was the Theory of Planned Behavior (45% of studies), which, along with other investigated theories of behavior change, was frequently associated with consumer safe food handling behavioral intentions and behaviors. However, overall, there was wide variation in the specific constructs found to be significantly associated and in the percentage of variance explained in each outcome across studies. The results suggest that multiple theories of behavior change can help to explain consumer safe food handling behaviors and could be adopted to guide the development of future behavior-change interventions. In these contexts, theories should be appropriately selected and adapted to meet the needs of the specific target population and context of interest.

A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison.

Science.gov (United States)

Luallen, Jeremy; Kling, Ryan

2014-12-01

For the past several decades, the U.S. prison system has witnessed a steady and persistent increase in the ages of prison populations. Given the additional costs and burdens placed on prisons as they house older inmates, this aging trend has generated intense interest among policy makers and academics who seek to understand why prison populations are getting older. This article presents a method for evaluating drivers influencing the change in age distributions among prisoners. We define a methodological approach and demonstrate its application using prison data from four states reporting to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Corrections Reporting Program. We find that since 2000, the primary driver of overall growth in the elderly populations in prison (defined as inmates over 50) is the increasing admission age of offenders entering prison. Moreover, changes in offense mix and sentence length/time served over the last decade have had significantly less influence on the age composition of prison populations. We also find that the impact of explanatory factors varies across states and offense types. For example, prison admission and exit rates explain much of the change in elderly drug offenders in New York, but not elderly violent offenders, where admission age plays a much stronger explanatory role. Our analysis offers an effective demonstration that supports the use of this method as an important and informative first step toward understanding components of change that affect the problem of prison aging. © The Author(s) 2014.

The power of hard-sphere models: explaining side-chain dihedral angle distributions of Thr and Val.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Alice Qinhua; O'Hern, Corey S; Regan, Lynne

2012-05-16

The energy functions used to predict protein structures typically include both molecular-mechanics and knowledge-based terms. In contrast, our approach is to develop robust physics- and geometry-based methods. Here, we investigate to what extent simple hard-sphere models can be used to predict side-chain conformations. The distributions of the side-chain dihedral angle χ(1) of Val and Thr in proteins of known structure show distinctive features: Val side chains predominantly adopt χ(1) = 180°, whereas Thr side chains typically adopt χ(1) = 60° and 300° (i.e., χ(1) = ±60° or g- and g(+) configurations). Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these differences, including interresidue steric clashes and hydrogen-bonding interactions. In contrast, we show that the observed side-chain dihedral angle distributions for both Val and Thr can be explained using only local steric interactions in a dipeptide mimetic. Our results emphasize the power of simple physical approaches and their importance for future advances in protein engineering and design. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strategy implementation and organizational change in healthcare organizations - a distributed change leadership perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anna B.; Ulhøi, John Parm

This paper examines some theoretical underpinnings of distributed leadership and its ability to serve as change leadership during the process of major organizational changes in healthcare organizations. The study was initiated as part of a larger research project on distributed leadership (DL......) in the healthcare sector, financed by a research grant addressing both empirical and theoretical questions. The paper clarifies the relationship between distributed leadership and change leadership, and more specifically, the characteristics of distributed leadership in the change leadership process. We also...... propose a distributed change leadership (DCL) model that permits further development of research design and empirical studies of DCL. On a more general side, with this paper we shed more light on some aspects of leadership patterns in healthcare, where there is a distinct gap....

Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Tvinnereim, Endre; Fløttum, Kjersti

2015-08-01

Citizens’ opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question `what comes to mind when you hear the words `climate change’?’. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence.

Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Kissling, W.D.; Carvalheiro, L.G.; WallisDeVries, M.F.; Franzén, M.; Biesmeijer, J.C.

2016-01-01

Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species’ functional traits that

Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Kissling, W.D.; Carvalheiro, Luísa G.; WallisDevries, Michiel F.; Franzén, Markus; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.

2016-01-01

Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species' functional traits

'Universal' Distribution of Interearthquake Times Explained

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saichev, A.; Sornette, D.

2006-01-01

We propose a simple theory for the 'universal' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in the physics of foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks. Our theoretical calculations provide good fits to the data and show that universality is only approximate. We conclude that the distributions of interevent times do not reveal more information than what is already known from the Gutenberg-Richter and the Omori power laws. Our results reinforce the view that triggering earthquakes by other earthquakes is a key physical mechanism to understand seismicity

Quantitative evaluation of radiation-induced changes in sperm morphology and chromatin distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aubele, M.; Juetting, U.R.; Rodenacker, K.; Gais, P.; Burger, G.; Hacker-Klom, U.

1990-01-01

Sperm head cytometry provides a useful assay for the detection of radiation-induced damage in mouse germ cells. Exposure of the gonads to radiation is known to lead to an increase of diploid and higher polyploid sperm and of sperm with head shape abnormalities. In the pilot studies reported here quantitative analysis of the total DNA content, the morphology, and the chromatin distribution of mouse sperm was performed. The goal was to evaluate the discriminative power of features derived by high resolution image cytometry in distinguishing sperm of control and irradiated mice. Our results suggest that besides the induction of the above mentioned variations in DNA content and shape of sperm head, changes of the nonhomogeneous chromatin distribution within the sperm may also be used to quantify the radiation effect on sperm cells. Whereas the chromatin distribution features show larger variations for sperm 21 days after exposure (dpr), the shape parameters seem to be more important to discriminate sperm 35 dpr. This may be explained by differentiation processes, which take place in different stages during mouse spermatogenesis

Community-level plant-soil feedbacks explain landscape distribution of native and non-native plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kulmatiski, Andrew

2018-02-01

Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) have gained attention for their potential role in explaining plant growth and invasion. While promising, most PSF research has measured plant monoculture growth on different soils in short-term, greenhouse experiments. Here, five soil types were conditioned by growing one native species, three non-native species, or a mixed plant community in different plots in a common-garden experiment. After 4 years, plants were removed and one native and one non-native plant community were planted into replicate plots of each soil type. After three additional years, the percentage cover of each of the three target species in each community was measured. These data were used to parameterize a plant community growth model. Model predictions were compared to native and non-native abundance on the landscape. Native community cover was lowest on soil conditioned by the dominant non-native, Centaurea diffusa , and non-native community cover was lowest on soil cultivated by the dominant native, Pseudoroegneria spicata . Consistent with plant growth on the landscape, the plant growth model predicted that the positive PSFs observed in the common-garden experiment would result in two distinct communities on the landscape: a native plant community on native soils and a non-native plant community on non-native soils. In contrast, when PSF effects were removed, the model predicted that non-native plants would dominate all soils, which was not consistent with plant growth on the landscape. Results provide an example where PSF effects were large enough to change the rank-order abundance of native and non-native plant communities and to explain plant distributions on the landscape. The positive PSFs that contributed to this effect reflected the ability of the two dominant plant species to suppress each other's growth. Results suggest that plant dominance, at least in this system, reflects the ability of a species to suppress the growth of dominant competitors

Explaining international co-authorship in global environmental change research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jappe, A.

2006-04-15

This paper maps the domain of earth and environmental sciences (EES) and investigates the relationship between cognitive problem structures and internationalisation patterns, drawing on the concepts of systemic versus cumulative global environmental change (GEC) and mutual task dependence in scientific fields. We find that scientific output concentration and internationalisation are significantly higher in the systemic GEC fields of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography than in the cumulative GEC fields Ecology and Water Resources. The relationship is explained by stronger mutual task dependence in systemic GEC fields. In contrast, the portion of co-authorships with developing, emerging and transition countries among all international publications is larger for Water Resources than for the three other fields, consistent with the most pressing needs for STI capacity development in these countries. (orig.)

Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012).

Science.gov (United States)

Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Savopoulos, Christos; Zannis, Prodromos; Apostolopoulou, Martha; Fountoukidis, Ilias; Kakaletsis, Nikolaos; Kanellos, Ilias; Dimellis, Dimos; Hyphantis, Thomas; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Pompili, Maurizio; Hatzitolios, Apostolos I

2016-03-15

Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12. The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%) Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Agricultural management explains historic changes in regional soil carbon stocks

Science.gov (United States)

van Wesemael, Bas; Paustian, Keith; Meersmans, Jeroen; Goidts, Esther; Barancikova, Gabriela; Easter, Mark

2010-01-01

Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks. PMID:20679194

Are low Danish fertility rates explained by changes in timing of births?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvidtfeldt, Ulla A; Gerster, Mette; Knudsen, Lisbeth B

2010-01-01

AIMS: The most commonly used indicator of fertility, the period total fertility rate (TFR(p)), tends to underestimate actual fertility when women delay childbearing. The objective of this study was to examine to which extent fluctuations in Danish fertility rates result from changes in timing...... from the Danish Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset, 1980-2001. We evaluated fluctuations in period fertility rates by the tempo-adjusted TFR(') - a proposed variant of the conventional TFR(p) taking period changes in timing of births into account. Tempo-effects were given by the difference between...... of births and, thus, whether the conventional TFR(p) is a distorted indicator of fertility quantum. In addition, we investigated whether such changes in timing explained the observed regional differences in the TFR(p) in Denmark. METHODS: The study applied age-, period-, county-, and parity-specific data...

Quantitative evaluation of radiation-induced changes in sperm morphology and chromatin distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aubele, M.; Burger, G.; Gais, P.; Juetting, V.; Rodenacker, K.; Hacker-Klom, V.

1993-01-01

Sperm head cytometry provides a useful assay for the detection of radiation induced damage in mouse germ cells. Exposure of the gonads to radiation is long known to lead to an increase of diploid and higher polyploid sperm and of sperm with head shape abnormalities. In the pilot studies reported here quantitative analysis of the total DNA content, the morphology, and the chromatin distribution of mouse sperm were performed. The goal was to evaluate the discriminative power of features derived by high resolution image cytometry in distinguishing sperm of control and irradiated mice. Our results suggest that besides the induction of the above mentioned variations in DNA content and shape of sperm head changes of the nonhomogeneous chromatin distribution within the sperm may also be used to quantify the radiation effect on sperm cells. Whereas the chromatin distribution features show bigger variations for sperm 21 days after exposure (dpr), the shape parameters seem to be more important to discriminate sperm 35 dpr. This may be explained by differentiation processes, which take place in different stages during mouse spermatogenesis. (authors). 25 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs

Quantitative evaluation of radiation-induced changes in sperm morphology and chromatin distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aubele, M; Burger, G; Gais, P; Juetting, V; Rodenacker, K [Gesellschaft fuer Strahlen- und Umweltforschung mbH Muenchen, Neuherberg (Germany); Hacker-Klom, V [Muenster Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenbiologie

1994-12-31

Sperm head cytometry provides a useful assay for the detection of radiation induced damage in mouse germ cells. Exposure of the gonads to radiation is long known to lead to an increase of diploid and higher polyploid sperm and of sperm with head shape abnormalities. In the pilot studies reported here quantitative analysis of the total DNA content, the morphology, and the chromatin distribution of mouse sperm were performed. The goal was to evaluate the discriminative power of features derived by high resolution image cytometry in distinguishing sperm of control and irradiated mice. Our results suggest that besides the induction of the above mentioned variations in DNA content and shape of sperm head changes of the nonhomogeneous chromatin distribution within the sperm may also be used to quantify the radiation effect on sperm cells. Whereas the chromatin distribution features show bigger variations for sperm 21 days after exposure (dpr), the shape parameters seem to be more important to discriminate sperm 35 dpr. This may be explained by differentiation processes, which take place in different stages during mouse spermatogenesis. (authors). 25 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs.

[Study of changes in Chinese herbal medicine distribution channel].

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Hua; Yang, Guang; Huang, Lu-Qi

2014-07-01

Distribution channel of Chinese herbal medicines has been changing. From Han to Ming Dynasty, Chinese herbal medicine were mainly trafficked to urban by dealers or farmers; From the Ming Dynasty to the foundation of new China, distribution channels are primarily intermediated with township "bazaar" and national distribution center with fixed place and regularly trading hours. In the planned economy period, the state-owned herbal medicine company was the sole medium with monopoly nature. From the mid1980s to the end of last century, planned economy and market economy have been co-existing. Stepping into 21st century, producing area highlighted in the distribution channels. Presence or absence and rise or fall of different types of distribution market went throughout the changing process of distribution channels, which became an important clue. Changes were motivated by economical consideration of channel subject, which originated from commodity characteristic and social environment changes.

Explaining pathological changes in axonal excitability through dynamical analysis of conductance-based models

Science.gov (United States)

Coggan, Jay S.; Ocker, Gabriel K.; Sejnowski, Terrence J.; Prescott, Steven A.

2011-10-01

Neurons rely on action potentials, or spikes, to relay information. Pathological changes in spike generation likely contribute to certain enigmatic features of neurological disease, like paroxysmal attacks of pain and muscle spasm. Paroxysmal symptoms are characterized by abrupt onset and short duration, and are associated with abnormal spiking although the exact pathophysiology remains unclear. To help decipher the biophysical basis for 'paroxysmal' spiking, we replicated afterdischarge (i.e. continued spiking after a brief stimulus) in a minimal conductance-based axon model. We then applied nonlinear dynamical analysis to explain the dynamical basis for initiation and termination of afterdischarge. A perturbation could abruptly switch the system between two (quasi-)stable attractor states: rest and repetitive spiking. This bistability was a consequence of slow positive feedback mediated by persistent inward current. Initiation of afterdischarge was explained by activation of the persistent inward current forcing the system to cross a saddle point that separates the basins of attraction associated with each attractor. Termination of afterdischarge was explained by the attractor associated with repetitive spiking being destroyed. This occurred when ultra-slow negative feedback, such as intracellular sodium accumulation, caused the saddle point and stable limit cycle to collide; in that regard, the active attractor is not truly stable when the slowest dynamics are taken into account. The model also explains other features of paroxysmal symptoms, including temporal summation and refractoriness.

Distributed generation solutions: changes and opportunities for distribution companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chuddy, B.

2004-01-01

'Full text:' The rapid expansion of hydrogen based power alternatives and other significant distributed generation (DG) alternatives is changing the traditional role of the local electricity distributor. This presentation is about opportunities related to incorporating such facilities into LDC and client distribution systems. This ranges from support of large co-generation facilities, such as that under development at Mississauga's Pearson International, to the integration of output from varied new forms small-scale, wind, biomass, and fuel cell power production within local distribution networks. Mr. Chuddy will examine Enersource's present and anticipated role: (1) as a technologies company aiding in developing distribution systems that integrate and fully utilize DG technology into those models and; (2) as an LDC that continues to lead the conservation movement on several fronts, including advocacy of aggregated demand response mechanisms in Ontario's wholesale market design. (author)

Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

2003-01-01

This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

Distributional changes of American martens and fishers in eastern North America, 1699-2001: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Krohn, William B.

2012-01-01

Contractions in the geographic distributions of the American marten ( Martes americana) and fi sher ( M. pennanti) in eastern North America south of the St. Lawrence River between Colonial times (ca. 1650–1800) and the fi sher’s recent range expansion (ca. 1930–present) are well documented, but causal factors in these range contractions have only partially been studied. Traditional explanations for range contractions by both species are forest clearing and unregulated trapping; little consideration has been given to alternative explanations. It has been hypothesized that deep snow limits the distribution of fi shers, and that high fi sher populations limit the distribution of martens. I assessed the potential contributions of these factors to observed range contractions for these species by evaluating expected patterns of change in their historical distributions since Colonial times. Using published data on the distribution of martens and fi shers in eastern North America, including early and contemporary fur-harvest records ( n = 60,702), I found that broad-scale changes in their geographic distributions in eastern North America were consistent with 3 of those expectations, and partially so with a 4th. I recognize that retrospective analyses cannot establish the relative importance of land clearing, unregulated trapping, and changing climatic conditions on observed range contractions; nevertheless, when historical data from eastern North America are viewed in the context of long-term climate warming and the results of recent ecological studies, they suggest that traditional arguments may only partially explain historical range contractions for both species. This study further suggests that under a warming climate, northern range boundaries for the fi sher will expand, and southern range boundaries for the American marten will continue to contract.

Could refuge theory and rivers acting as barriers explain the genetic variability distribution in the Atlantic Forest?

Science.gov (United States)

Cazé, Ana Luiza R; Mäder, Geraldo; Nunes, Teonildes S; Queiroz, Luciano P; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F; Bonatto, Sandro L; Freitas, Loreta B

2016-08-01

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most species-rich ecoregions in the world. The historical origins of this richness and the evolutionary processes that produced diversification and promoted speciation in this ecosystem remain poorly understood. In this context, focusing on Passiflora contracta, an endemic species from the Atlantic Forest distributed exclusively at sea level along forest edges, this study aimed to characterize the patterns of genetic variability and explore two hypotheses that attempt to explain the possible causes of the genetic diversity in this region: the refuge and riverine barrier theories. We employed Bayesian methods combined with niche modeling to identify genetically homogeneous groups, to determine the diversification age, and identify long-term climate stability areas to species survival. The analyses were performed using molecular markers from nuclear and plastid genomes, with samples collected throughout the entire geographic distribution of the species, and comparisons with congeners species. The results indicated that populations were genetically structured and provided evidence of demographic stability. The molecular markers indicated the existence of a clear structure and the presence of five homogeneous groups. Interestingly, the separation of the groups coincides with the geographical locations of local rivers, corroborating the hypothesis of rivers acting as barriers to gene flow in this species. The highest levels of genetic diversity and the areas identified as having long-term climate stability were found in the same region reported for other species as a possible refuge area during the climatic changes of the Quaternary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive Abilities Explaining Age-Related Changes in Time Perception of Short and Long Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Zelanti, Pierre S.; Droit-Volet, Sylvie

2011-01-01

The current study investigated how the development of cognitive abilities explains the age-related changes in temporal judgment over short and long duration ranges from 0.5 to 30 s. Children (5- and 9-year-olds) as well as adults were given a temporal bisection task with four different duration ranges: a duration range shorter than 1 s, two…

Public concern for air quality: explaining change in Toronto, Canada, 1967-1978

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dworkin, J M [Univ of Arizona, Tucson; Pijawka, K D

1982-01-01

The paper presents the results of an empirical study of the change in perception of air quality in Toronto, Canada from 1968-1978. The data show a shift in public concern with and awareness of air quality. Despite the fact that the 1978 population regarded air quality as degraded, air pollution declined as a public concern, requiring a less serious response by government than other societal problems. The results of the study were reviewed in the context of existing perception studies. In explaining change, the study found: (1) perception of ambient air quality was not related to air pollution levels; (2) air pollution declines as a public concern as other socioeconomic problems surface; and (3) the mass media has an important role in affecting public attitudes and behavior over environmental quality issues.

Differences in U root-to-shoot translocation between plant species explained by U distribution in roots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straczek, Anne; Duquene, Lise [Belgium Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN), Biosphere Impact Studies, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Wegrzynek, Dariusz [IAEA, Seibersdorf Laboratories, A-2444 Seibersdorf (Austria); Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow (Poland); Chinea-Cano, Ernesto [IAEA, Seibersdorf Laboratories, A-2444 Seibersdorf (Austria); Wannijn, Jean [Belgium Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN), Biosphere Impact Studies, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Navez, Jacques [Royal Museum of Africa, Department of Geology, Leuvensesteenweg 13, 3080 Tervuren (Belgium); Vandenhove, Hildegarde, E-mail: hvandenh@sckcen.b [Belgium Nuclear Research Centre (SCK.CEN), Biosphere Impact Studies, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium)

2010-03-15

Accumulation and distribution of uranium in roots and shoots of four plants species differing in their cation exchange capacity of roots (CECR) was investigated. After exposure in hydroponics for seven days to 100 mumol U L{sup -1}, distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots. Higher U concentrations were measured in roots of dicots which showed a higher CECR than monocot species. Chemical extractions indicated that uranium is mostly located in the apoplasm of roots of monocots but that it is predominantly located in the symplasm of roots of dicots. Translocation of U to shoot was not significantly affected by the CECR or distribution of U between symplasm and apoplasm. Distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots for all species. Additionally, longitudinal and radial distribution of U in roots of maize and Indian mustard, respectively showing the lowest and the highest translocation, was studied following X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis of specific root sections. Chemical analysis and XRF analysis of roots of maize and Indian mustard clearly indicated a higher longitudinal and radial transport of uranium in roots of Indian mustard than in roots of maize, where uranium mostly accumulated in root tips. These results showed that even if CECR could partly explain U accumulation in roots, other mechanisms like radial and longitudinal transport are implied in the translocation of U to the shoot.

Differences in U root-to-shoot translocation between plant species explained by U distribution in roots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Straczek, Anne; Duquene, Lise; Wegrzynek, Dariusz; Chinea-Cano, Ernesto; Wannijn, Jean; Navez, Jacques; Vandenhove, Hildegarde

2010-01-01

Accumulation and distribution of uranium in roots and shoots of four plants species differing in their cation exchange capacity of roots (CECR) was investigated. After exposure in hydroponics for seven days to 100 μmol U L -1 , distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots. Higher U concentrations were measured in roots of dicots which showed a higher CECR than monocot species. Chemical extractions indicated that uranium is mostly located in the apoplasm of roots of monocots but that it is predominantly located in the symplasm of roots of dicots. Translocation of U to shoot was not significantly affected by the CECR or distribution of U between symplasm and apoplasm. Distribution of uranium in roots was investigated through chemical extraction of roots for all species. Additionally, longitudinal and radial distribution of U in roots of maize and Indian mustard, respectively showing the lowest and the highest translocation, was studied following X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis of specific root sections. Chemical analysis and XRF analysis of roots of maize and Indian mustard clearly indicated a higher longitudinal and radial transport of uranium in roots of Indian mustard than in roots of maize, where uranium mostly accumulated in root tips. These results showed that even if CECR could partly explain U accumulation in roots, other mechanisms like radial and longitudinal transport are implied in the translocation of U to the shoot.

Distribution of mean surface stable isotopes values in east Antarctica; observed changes with depth in coastal area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorius, C.; Merlivat, L.

1975-01-01

Mean samples of the snow accumulated during the last ten years have been collected at 48 stations distributed along a 850km long axis in East Antarctica, starting from Dumont d'Urville towards Vostok. Up to 1000m elevations the mean deuterium values are rather constant (-150 per thousand); then they decrease with various parameters (distance, elevation) and in particular with the mean annual temperatures, according to a linear relationship (D per thousand=6,04T(degC)-51) for a temperature range from -20 to -55 deg C. The observed D per thousand-O per thousand relationship is discussed. Measurements along a 303m deep core (down to the bedrock) obtained in the control area show very large D changes with mean values varying between -150 and -360 per thousand; this last value characterizes present surface snow deposited about 800km upstream. The observed D variations may be explained by changes in the site of origin of the ice; mechanisms which could explain the presence of ice originating from further distances above less distant origin layers are discussed [fr

Plant-induced changes in soil chemistry do not explain differences in uranium transfer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duquene, L.; Vandenhove, H.; Tack, F.; Avoort, E. van der; Hees, M. van; Wannijn, J.

2006-01-01

A greenhouse experiment was set up with maize, ryegrass, Indian mustard, wheat and pea to evaluate to what extent differences in uranium (U) transfer factors can be explained by root-mediated changes in selected soil properties. The experiment involved an acid and an alkaline soil contaminated with 238 U. U soil-to-shoot transfer factors (TFs) ranged between 0.0005 and 0.021 on the acid soil and between 0.007 and 0.179 on the alkaline soil. Indian mustard showed the highest U uptake in shoots and maize the lowest. The root TFs, only available for the acid soil, ranged from 0.58 for maize and Indian mustard to 1.38 for ryegrass. The difference in U uptake between the two soils and the five plants was only partially explained by the different initial U concentrations in soil solution or differences in soil properties in the two soils. However, we obtained a significant relation for differences in shoot TFs observed between the two soils when relating shoot TFs with concentration of UO 2 2+ and uranyl carbonate complexes in soil solution (R 2 = 0.88). The physiological mechanisms by which root-to-shoot U transfer is inhibited or promoted seemed at least as important as the plant-induced changes in soil characteristics in determining soil-to-shoot TFs

Biological traits explain the distribution and colonisation ability of the invasive shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi

Science.gov (United States)

Gothland, M.; Dauvin, J. C.; Denis, L.; Dufossé, F.; Jobert, S.; Ovaert, J.; Pezy, J. P.; Tous Rius, A.; Spilmont, N.

2014-04-01

Comprehending marine invasions requires a better knowledge of the biological traits of invasive species, and the future spread of invasive species may be predicted through comprehensive overviews of their distribution. This study thus presents the current distribution of a non-indigenous species, the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi, as well as the species population characteristics (size distribution and cohorts), based on a five-year survey (2008-2012) along the French coast of the English Channel. Two large populations were found near harbours: one on the Opal Coast (where density reached 61 ± 22 ind.m-2, mean ± s.d., in Dunkirk harbour) and one on the Calvados coast (density up to 26 ± 6 ind.m-2, mean ± s.d, in Honfleur harbour). H. takanoi exhibited a short life cycle, a rapid growth, an early sexual maturity and a high adult mortality. These features, combined with previously described high fecundity and high dispersal ability, endow this species with an 'r-selected strategy'. This strategy, which usually characterises species with a high colonisation ability, would explain the success of H. takanoi for colonising the French coast of the Channel. However, the species was found only in harbours and their vicinity; H. takanoi thus exhibited a discontinuous distribution along the 700 km of coastline. These results are discussed regarding sediment preference and potential introduction vectors. Hemigrapsus takanoi is now considered as established on the French coast and further studies are needed to evaluate the consequences of its introduction on the structure and functioning of the impacted shores.

Inactivity periods and postural change speed can explain atypical postural change patterns of Caenorhabditis elegans mutants.

Science.gov (United States)

Fukunaga, Tsukasa; Iwasaki, Wataru

2017-01-19

With rapid advances in genome sequencing and editing technologies, systematic and quantitative analysis of animal behavior is expected to be another key to facilitating data-driven behavioral genetics. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a model organism in this field. Several video-tracking systems are available for automatically recording behavioral data for the nematode, but computational methods for analyzing these data are still under development. In this study, we applied the Gaussian mixture model-based binning method to time-series postural data for 322 C. elegans strains. We revealed that the occurrence patterns of the postural states and the transition patterns among these states have a relationship as expected, and such a relationship must be taken into account to identify strains with atypical behaviors that are different from those of wild type. Based on this observation, we identified several strains that exhibit atypical transition patterns that cannot be fully explained by their occurrence patterns of postural states. Surprisingly, we found that two simple factors-overall acceleration of postural movement and elimination of inactivity periods-explained the behavioral characteristics of strains with very atypical transition patterns; therefore, computational analysis of animal behavior must be accompanied by evaluation of the effects of these simple factors. Finally, we found that the npr-1 and npr-3 mutants have similar behavioral patterns that were not predictable by sequence homology, proving that our data-driven approach can reveal the functions of genes that have not yet been characterized. We propose that elimination of inactivity periods and overall acceleration of postural change speed can explain behavioral phenotypes of strains with very atypical postural transition patterns. Our methods and results constitute guidelines for effectively finding strains that show "truly" interesting behaviors and systematically uncovering novel gene

Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregory K. Silber

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere. The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately

Historical dynamics and current environmental effects explain the spatial distribution of species richness patterns of New World monkeys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Vallejos-Garrido

2017-09-01

-fitting model that explains species richness. OLS and SAR models show that this set of variables explains 69.9% and 64.2% of species richness, respectively. Potential of evapotranspiration is the most important variable within this model, showing a linear positive relationship with species richness, and clear lower and upper limits to the species richness distribution. Discussion We suggest that New World monkeys historically migrated from their biodiversity hotspot (energetically optimal areas for most platyrrine species to adjacent, energetically suboptimal areas, and that the different dispersal abilities of these species, the lack of competitive interactions at a macroecological scale, and environmental constraints (i.e., energy availability, seasonality are key elements which explain the non-uniform pattern of species richness for this clade.

Computer jargon explained

CERN Document Server

Enticknap, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Computer Jargon Explained is a feature in Computer Weekly publications that discusses 68 of the most commonly used technical computing terms. The book explains what the terms mean and why the terms are important to computer professionals. The text also discusses how the terms relate to the trends and developments that are driving the information technology industry. Computer jargon irritates non-computer people and in turn causes problems for computer people. The technology and the industry are changing so rapidly; it is very hard even for professionals to keep updated. Computer people do not

Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Self-adaptive change detection in streaming data with non-stationary distribution

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Xiangliang

2010-01-01

Non-stationary distribution, in which the data distribution evolves over time, is a common issue in many application fields, e.g., intrusion detection and grid computing. Detecting the changes in massive streaming data with a non-stationary distribution helps to alarm the anomalies, to clean the noises, and to report the new patterns. In this paper, we employ a novel approach for detecting changes in streaming data with the purpose of improving the quality of modeling the data streams. Through observing the outliers, this approach of change detection uses a weighted standard deviation to monitor the evolution of the distribution of data streams. A cumulative statistical test, Page-Hinkley, is employed to collect the evidence of changes in distribution. The parameter used for reporting the changes is self-adaptively adjusted according to the distribution of data streams, rather than set by a fixed empirical value. The self-adaptability of the novel approach enhances the effectiveness of modeling data streams by timely catching the changes of distributions. We validated the approach on an online clustering framework with a benchmark KDDcup 1999 intrusion detection data set as well as with a real-world grid data set. The validation results demonstrate its better performance on achieving higher accuracy and lower percentage of outliers comparing to the other change detection approaches. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Explaining drug policy: Towards an historical sociology of policy change.

Science.gov (United States)

Seddon, Toby

2011-11-01

The goal of seeking to understand the development over time of drug policies is a specific version of the more general intellectual project of finding ways of explaining social change. The latter has been a preoccupation of some of the greatest thinkers within the social sciences of the last 200 years, from Foucault all the way back to the three nineteenth-century pioneers, Marx, Durkheim and Weber. I describe this body of work as 'historical sociology'. In this paper, I outline how a particular approach to historical sociology can be fruitfully drawn upon to understand the development of drug policy, using by way of illustration the example of the analysis of a recent transformation in British drug policy: the rise of the criminal justice agenda. I conclude by arguing that by looking at developments in drug policy in this way, some new insights are opened up. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal changes of built-up land and population distribution patterns in China during 1990-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Y. H.; Liu, Y. L.; Yu, L. J.

2017-02-01

With the population growth, built-up land is expanding constantly in China. The paper aims to analyse spatiotemporal pattern of built-up land and population, and their relationship in China mainland from 1990 to 2010. With population census data and built-up land data, it calculates population density of counties, built-up surface proportion and population density by built-up land, as measures of population and built-up land distribution. The result shows that, the total population and built-up area have increased by 17.5% and 33.9%, respectively, in China mainland from 1990 to 2010. Meanwhile, the population density of built-up land has decreased by 12.0%, indicating that built-up land growth has outpaced population growth overall. However, such changes are not evenly distributed in space and time. Change in the later decade is much more significant than that in the earlier decade. For built-up land, the increases don’t show obvious characteristics of spatial aggregation. Correspondingly, most increases in population density of counties and population density of built-up area are in the northwest area, divided by Aihui-Tengchong line, while most decreases are in the southeast area. These analyses help to explain the overall impact of political-economic environment and the policy changes on urbanization processes for China mainland.

Northward shifts of the distributions of Spanish reptiles in association with climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio; Pleguezuelos, Juan M; Pizarro, Manuel; Montori, Albert

2012-04-01

It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Longitudinal changes in abdominal fat distribution with menopause.

Science.gov (United States)

Franklin, Ruth M; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Kanaley, Jill A

2009-03-01

Increases in abdominal fat have been reported with menopause, but the impact of menopause on abdominal fat distribution (visceral vs subcutaneous) is still unclear. The objective of the study was to determine if abdominal fat content (volume) or distribution is altered with menopause. Magnetic resonance imaging was used to quantify total abdominal, subcutaneous, and visceral fat in 8 healthy women, both in the premenopausal state and 8 years later in the postmenopausal state. Physical activity (PA) and blood lipids were also measured. Body weight and waist circumference did not change with menopause (pre- vs postmenopause: body weight, 63.2 +/- 3.1 vs 63.9 +/- 2.5 kg; waist circumference, 92.1 +/- 4.6 vs 93.4 +/- 3.7 cm); however, total abdominal fat, subcutaneous fat, and visceral fat all significantly (P fat distribution was not significantly different after menopause (pre- vs postmenopause: subcutaneous, 73% +/- 3% vs 71% +/- 3%; visceral, 26% +/- 3% vs 28% +/- 3%). Lean mass, fat mass, and PA, along with total cholesterol and triglyceride levels, did not change with menopause. High-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein both increased (P abdominal fat content increased with menopause despite no change in PA, body weight, or waist circumference; however, menopause did not affect the relative abdominal fat distribution in these women.

Change of particle size distribution during Brownian coagulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, K.W.

1984-01-01

Change in particle size distribution due to Brownian coagulation in the continuum regime has been stuied analytically. A simple analytic solution for the size distribution of an initially lognormal distribution is obtained based on the assumption that the size distribution during the coagulation process attains or can, at least, be represented by a time dependent lognormal function. The results are found to be in a form that corrects Smoluchowski's solution for both polydispersity and size-dependent kernel. It is further shown that regardless of whether the initial distribution is narrow or broad, the spread of the distribution is characterized by approaching a fixed value of the geometric standard deviation. This result has been compared with the self-preserving distribution obtained by similarity theory. (Author)

Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

KAUST Repository

Brown, Christopher J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J.

2015-01-01

the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses

Explaining the inefficiency of electrical distribution companies. Peruvian firms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perez-Reyes, Raul [Organismo Supervisor de la Inversion en Energia y Mineria, OSINERGMIN (Peru); Tovar, Beatriz [Infrastructure and Transport Research Group (EIT), Department of Applied Economics, University of Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain)

2010-09-15

This paper investigates the extent to which the structural reform of the Peruvian electricity market, implemented in the 1990s, has improved the efficiency of the distribution companies; and it evaluates the influence on efficiency of firm specific explanatory variables. To do this, we rely on data from 14 distribution companies between 1996 and 2006. The results indicate that the incentives generated by the reform process led to the firms becoming more efficient. Moreover, the time trend and private management of the distribution companies are variables that positively affect the levels of efficiency, whereas the lower network densities are then the greater the inefficiency. (author)

Explaining the inefficiency of electrical distribution companies. Peruvian firms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Reyes, Raul; Tovar, Beatriz

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the extent to which the structural reform of the Peruvian electricity market, implemented in the 1990s, has improved the efficiency of the distribution companies; and it evaluates the influence on efficiency of firm specific explanatory variables. To do this, we rely on data from 14 distribution companies between 1996 and 2006. The results indicate that the incentives generated by the reform process led to the firms becoming more efficient. Moreover, the time trend and private management of the distribution companies are variables that positively affect the levels of efficiency, whereas the lower network densities are then the greater the inefficiency. (author)

Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stainforth, David A; Chapman, Sandra C; Watkins, Nicholas W

2013-01-01

Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia. (letter)

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brady J Mattsson

Full Text Available Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

Changes in materials properties explain the effects of humidity on gecko adhesion.

Science.gov (United States)

Puthoff, Jonathan B; Prowse, Michael S; Wilkinson, Matt; Autumn, Kellar

2010-11-01

Geckos owe their remarkable stickiness to millions of dry setae on their toes, and the mechanism of adhesion in gecko setae has been the topic of scientific scrutiny for over two centuries. Previously, we demonstrated that van der Waals forces are sufficient for strong adhesion and friction in gecko setae, and that water-based capillary adhesion is not required. However, recent studies demonstrated that adhesion increases with relative humidity (RH) and proposed that surface hydration and capillary water bridge formation is important or even necessary. In this study, we confirmed a significant effect of RH on gecko adhesion, but rejected the capillary adhesion hypothesis. While contact forces of isolated tokay gecko setal arrays increased with humidity, the increase was similar on hydrophobic and hydrophilic surfaces, inconsistent with a capillary mechanism. Contact forces increased with RH even at high shear rates, where capillary bridge formation is too slow to affect adhesion. How then can a humidity-related increase in adhesion and friction be explained? The effect of RH on the mechanical properties of setal β-keratin has escaped consideration until now. We discovered that an increase in RH softens setae and increases viscoelastic damping, which increases adhesion. Changes in setal materials properties, not capillary forces, fully explain humidity-enhanced adhesion, and van der Waals forces remain the only empirically supported mechanism of adhesion in geckos.

Changes of firm size distribution: The case of Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Cheong, Chongcheul; Yoon, Seong-Min

2011-01-01

In this paper, the distribution and inequality of firm sizes is evaluated for the Korean firms listed on the stock markets. Using the amount of sales, total assets, capital, and the number of employees, respectively, as a proxy for firm sizes, we find that the upper tail of the Korean firm size distribution can be described by power-law distributions rather than lognormal distributions. Then, we estimate the Zipf parameters of the firm sizes and assess the changes in the magnitude of the exponents. The results show that the calculated Zipf exponents over time increased prior to the financial crisis, but decreased after the crisis. This pattern implies that the degree of inequality in Korean firm sizes had severely deepened prior to the crisis, but lessened after the crisis. Overall, the distribution of Korean firm sizes changes over time, and Zipf’s law is not universal but does hold as a special case.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matto Mildenberger

Full Text Available While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Mildenberger, Matto; Howe, Peter; Lachapelle, Erick; Stokes, Leah; Marlon, Jennifer; Gravelle, Timothy

2016-01-01

While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dandan Zhao

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs based on five general circulation models (GCMs downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5. The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the

Explaining Dynamic Strategies for Defending Company Legitimacy : The Changing Outcomes of Anti-Sweatshop Campaigns in France and Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Balsiger, Philip

2018-01-01

This article analyzes and compares the dynamically changing outcomes of anti-sweatshop campaigns in France and Switzerland through a qualitative comparative case study using interviews and analysis of firsthand and secondary data. In both countries, some targeted firms made early concessions and later withdrew from those concessions. To explain these changing outcomes over time, the article develops a perspective that puts emphasis on interaction phases and highlights corporate strategic resp...

Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

2011-02-16

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

Coulomb Mechanics And Landscape Geometry Explain Landslide Size Distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Jeandet, L.; Steer, P.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2017-12-01

It is generally observed that the dimensions of large bedrock landslides follow power-law scaling relationships. In particular, the non-cumulative frequency distribution (PDF) of bedrock landslide area is well characterized by a negative power-law above a critical size, with an exponent 2.4. However, the respective role of bedrock mechanical properties, landscape shape and triggering mechanisms on the scaling properties of landslide dimensions are still poorly understood. Yet, unravelling the factors that control this distribution is required to better estimate the total volume of landslides triggered by large earthquakes or storms. To tackle this issue, we develop a simple probabilistic 1D approach to compute the PDF of rupture depths in a given landscape. The model is applied to randomly sampled points along hillslopes of studied digital elevation models. At each point location, the model determines the range of depth and angle leading to unstable rupture planes, by applying a simple Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion only to the rupture planes that intersect downhill surface topography. This model therefore accounts for both rock mechanical properties, friction and cohesion, and landscape shape. We show that this model leads to realistic landslide depth distribution, with a power-law arising when the number of samples is high enough. The modeled PDF of landslide size obtained for several landscapes match the ones from earthquakes-driven landslides catalogues for the same landscape. In turn, this allows us to invert landslide effective mechanical parameters, friction and cohesion, associated to those specific events, including Chi-Chi, Wenchuan, Niigata and Gorkha earthquakes. The cohesion and friction ranges (25-35 degrees and 5-20 kPa) are in good agreement with previously inverted values. Our results demonstrate that reduced complexity mechanics is efficient to model the distribution of unstable depths, and show the role of landscape variability in landslide size

Properties of magnetocaloric materials with a distribution of Curie temperatures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bahl, Christian Robert Haffenden; Bjørk, Rasmus; Smith, Anders

2012-01-01

The magnetocaloric properties of inhomogeneous ferromagnets that contain distributions of Curie temperatures are considered as a function of the width of such a distribution. Assuming a normal distribution of the Curie temperature, the average adiabatic temperature change, ΔTad, the isothermal...... of the distribution, explaining the observed mismatch of peak temperatures reported in experiments. Also, the field dependence of ΔTad and Δs is found to depend on the width of the distribution....

Using tumor phenotype, histological tumor distribution, and mammographic appearance to explain the survival differences between screen-detected and clinically detected breast cancers.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuang, Shu-Lin; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Yu, Cheng-Ping; Chang, King-Jen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Tabár, László; Stephen, Duffy W; Smith, Robert A; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2014-08-01

In the era of mass screening for breast cancer with mammography, it has been noted that conventional tumor attributes and mammographic appearance are insufficient to account for the better prognosis of screen-detected tumors. Such prognostication may require additional updated pathological information regarding tumor phenotype (e.g., basal status) and histological tumor distribution (focality). We investigated this hypothesis using a Bayesian approach to analyze breast cancer data from Dalarna County, Sweden. We used data for tumors diagnosed in the Swedish Two-County Trial and early service screening period, 1977-1995, and from the mature service screening period, 1996-1998. In the early period of mammographic screening (1977-1995), the crude hazard ratio (HR) of breast cancer death for screen-detected cases compared with symptomatic ones was 0.22 (95% CI: 0.17-0.29) compared with 0.53 (95% CI: 0.34-0.76) when adjusted for conventional tumor attributes only. Using the data from the mature service screening period, 1996-1998, the HR was 0.23 (95% CI: 0.08-0.44) unadjusted and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.26-1.47) after adjustment for tumor phenotype, mammographic appearance, histological tumor distribution, and conventional tumor attributes. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction of breast cancer deaths using these variables without the detection mode was 0.82, only slightly less than that observed when additionally including the detection mode (AUC=0.83). Using Freedman statistics, conventional tumor attributes and mammographic appearances explained 58% (95% CI: 57.5-58.6%) of the difference of breast cancer survival between the screen-detected and the clinically detected breast cancers, whereas the corresponding figure was increased to 77% (95% CI: 75.6-77.6%) when adding the two information on tumor phenotype and histological tumor distribution. The results indicated that conventional tumor attributes and mammographic appearance are not sufficient to be

Distributed Leadership of School Curriculum Change: An Integrative Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Fasso, Wendy; Knight, Bruce Allen; Purnell, Ken

2016-01-01

Since its inception in 1999, the distributed leadership framework of Spillane, Halverson, and Diamond [2004. "Towards a Theory of Leadership Practice: A Distributed Perspective." "Journal of Curriculum Studies" 36 (1): 3-34. doi:10.1080/0022027032000106726] has supported research into leadership and change in schools. Whilst…

Liver allocation and distribution: time for a change.

Science.gov (United States)

Deshpande, Ranjit; Hirose, Ryutaro; Mulligan, David

2017-04-01

Liver allograft allocation has been a topic of hot debate for over a decade. New redistricting changes have been proposed by the Liver and Intestinal Transplant Committee to the existing United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) liver allocation policy. The basis of this new proposal is similar to the old one with an aim to distribute organs in a fair, efficient and equitable fashion. In this review, we plan to look in depth at the redistribution proposals thus far, their merits and how they may help patients who do not have adequate access to livers. Many authors have criticized the proposed changes to organ distribution to reduce geographic disparity in access to liver transplantation. Our focus in this article is to bring forth the most recent literature and proposed changes in the current distribution system. We will also mention two other possible methods that have been proposed to redesign distribution using concentric circles and neighborhoods. In this article, we also look at the economics of the redistricting proposal and its effects on transplant centers. The UNOS Liver and Intestinal Transplant Committee has recommended a proposal using the eight-district model with proximity circles and three additional Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) points with initial sharing MELD threshold of 25 as a starting point to reduce disparity in patient access to deceased donor livers for transplantation. This proposal has met with significant resistance because of concerns of cost, logistics and impact on existing transplant centers. Other methodologies have also been proposed that have the potential to significantly improve our current disparity of access to life-saving organs. Variation in the supply of donor organs vs. the demand or need for liver transplant by geography and the current defined areas of distribution drive this disparity. Cost benefits to the healthcare system in caring for patients with advanced stages of liver disease may outweigh increased

Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

2006-01-01

likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover......Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...

Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

2015-06-01

The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.

Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

2015-01-01

The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals. PMID:26078858

Multivariate benthic ecosystem functioning in the Arctic – benthic fluxes explained by environmental parameters in the southeastern Beaufort Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Link

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The effects of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems and their biogeochemical cycles are difficult to predict given the complex physical, biological and chemical interactions among the ecosystem components. We studied benthic biogeochemical fluxes in the Arctic and the influence of short-term (seasonal to annual, long-term (annual to decadal and other environmental variability on their spatial distribution to provide a baseline for estimates of the impact of future changes. In summer 2009, we measured fluxes of dissolved oxygen, nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, soluble reactive phosphate and silicic acid at the sediment–water interface at eight sites in the southeastern Beaufort Sea at water depths from 45 to 580 m. The spatial pattern of the measured benthic boundary fluxes was heterogeneous. Multivariate analysis of flux data showed that no single or reduced combination of fluxes could explain the majority of spatial variation, indicating that oxygen flux is not representative of other nutrient sink–source dynamics. We tested the influence of eight environmental parameters on single benthic fluxes. Short-term environmental parameters (sinking flux of particulate organic carbon above the bottom, sediment surface Chl a were most important for explaining oxygen, ammonium and nitrate fluxes. Long-term parameters (porosity, surface manganese and iron concentration, bottom water oxygen concentrations together with δ13Corg signature explained most of the spatial variation in phosphate, nitrate and nitrite fluxes. Variation in pigments at the sediment surface was most important to explain variation in fluxes of silicic acid. In a model including all fluxes synchronously, the overall spatial distribution could be best explained (57% by the combination of sediment Chl a, phaeopigments, δ13Corg, surficial manganese and bottom water oxygen concentration. We conclude that it is necessary to consider long-term environmental variability along with

How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?

Science.gov (United States)

Dyderski, Marcin K; Paź, Sonia; Frelich, Lee E; Jagodziński, Andrzej M

2018-03-01

Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pareto law and Pareto index in the income distribution of Japanese companies

OpenAIRE

Ishikawa, Atushi

2004-01-01

In order to study the phenomenon in detail that income distribution follows Pareto law, we analyze the database of high income companies in Japan. We find a quantitative relation between the average capital of the companies and the Pareto index. The larger the average capital becomes, the smaller the Pareto index becomes. From this relation, we can possibly explain that the Pareto index of company income distribution hardly changes, while the Pareto index of personal income distribution chang...

Stability and change in the distribution of cytospecies of the Simulium damnosum complex (Diptera: Simuliidae) in southern Ghana from 1971 to 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Post, Rory J; Cheke, Robert A; Boakye, Daniel A; Wilson, Michael D; Osei-Atweneboana, Mike Y; Tetteh-Kumah, Anthony; Lamberton, Poppy Hl; Crainey, J Lee; Yaméogo, Laurent; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2013-07-13

Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species that have been described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Ghana, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental change (e.g. deforestation), with potential disease consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in southern Ghana and report changes observed with reference to historical data collated from 1971 to 2005 and new identifications made between 2006 and 2011. Larvae were collected from riverine breeding sites, fixed in Carnoy's solution and chromosome preparations made. Cytotaxonomic identifications from 1,232 samples (including 49 new samples) were analysed. We report long-term stability in cytospecies distribution in the rivers Afram, Akrum, Pawnpawn and Pru. For the rivers Oda, Ofin and Tano we describe (for the first time) patterns of distribution. We could not detect cytospecies composition changes in the upper Pra, and the lower Pra seems to have been stable. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in the Volta Region seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. There has been a recent increase in the occurrence of savannah cytospecies in the river Asukawkaw, and this might be related to continuing deforestation. Cytospecies' distributions have not been stable from 1971 to 2011. Although there are no obvious causes for the temporary appearance and subsequent disappearance of cytospecies in a particular location, a major influence has been vector control and migration patterns, probably explaining observed changes on the Black Volta and lower Volta rivers. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savannah cytospecies in southern Ghana (1975

Health Expenditure Growth: Looking beyond the Average through Decomposition of the Full Distribution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine); M.A. Koopmanschap (Marc); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen); E.K.A. van Doorslaer (Eddy)

2012-01-01

textabstractExplanations of growth in health expenditures have restricted attention to the mean. We explain change throughout the distribution of expenditures, providing insight into how growth and its explanation differ along the distribution. We analyse Dutch data on actual health expenditures

Climate change effects on enchytraeid performance in metal-polluted soils explained from changes in metal bioavailability and bioaccumulation.

Science.gov (United States)

González-Alcaraz, M Nazaret; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2015-10-01

Climate change may alter physical, chemical and biological properties of ecosystems, affecting organisms but also the fate of chemical pollutants. This study aimed to find out how changes in climate conditions (air temperature, soil moisture content) affect the toxicity of metal-polluted soils to the soft-bodied soil organism Enchytraeus crypticus, linking enchytraeid performance with changes in soil available and body metal concentrations. Bioassays with E. crypticus were performed under different combinations of air temperature (20 and 25 °C) and soil moisture content (50% and 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC) in dilution series of three metal-polluted soils (mine tailing, forest and watercourse). After 21 d exposure, enchytraeid reproduction was determined, and soil available (extracted with 0.01 M CaCl2) and body Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations in surviving adults were determined. In general, Cd, Pb and Zn availability decreased upon incubation under the different climate scenarios. In the watercourse soil, with initially higher available metal concentrations (678 µg Cd kg(-1), 807 µg Pb kg(-1) and 31,020 µg Zn kg(-1)), decreases were greatest at 50% WHC probably due to metal immobilization as carbonates. Enchytraeid reproduction was negatively affected by higher available metal concentrations, with reductions up to 98% in the watercourse soil compared to the control soil at 30% WHC. Bioaccumulation of Cd, Pb and Zn was higher when drier conditions were combined with the higher temperature of 25 °C. Changes in metal bioavailability and bioaccumulation explained the toxicity of soil polluted by metal mine wastes to enchytraeids under changing environmental conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Road user behaviour changes following a self-explaining roads intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackie, Hamish W; Charlton, Samuel G; Baas, Peter H; Villasenor, Pablo C

2013-01-01

The self-explaining roads (SER) approach uses road designs that evoke correct expectations and driving behaviours from road users to create a safe and user-friendly road network. Following the implementation of an SER process and retrofitting of local and collector roads in a suburb within Auckland City, lower speeds on local roads and less variation in speed on both local and collector roads were achieved, along with a closer match between actual and perceived safe speeds. Preliminary analyses of crash data shows that the project has resulted in a 30% reduction crash numbers and an 86% reduction in crash costs per annum, since the road changes were completed. In order to further understand the outcomes from this project, a study was carried out to measure the effects of the SER intervention on the activity and behaviour of all road users. Video was collected over nine separate days, at nine different locations, both before and after SER construction. Road user behaviour categories were developed for all potential road users at different location types and then used to code the video data. Following SER construction, on local roads there was a relatively higher proportion of pedestrians, less uniformity in vehicle lane keeping and less indicating by motorists along with less through traffic, reflecting a more informal/low speed local road environment. Pedestrians were less constrained on local roads following SER construction, possibly reflecting a perceptually safer and more user-friendly environment. These behaviours were not generally evident on collector roads, a trend also shown by the previous study of speed changes. Given that one of the objectives of SER is to match road user behaviour with functionally different road categories, the road user behaviour differences demonstrated on different road types within the SER trial area provides further reinforcement of a successful SER trial. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diachronic changes in word probability distributions in daily press

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanković Jelena

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Changes in probability distributions of individual words and word types were investigated within two samples of daily press in the span of fifty years. Two samples of daily press were used in this study. The one derived from the Corpus of Serbian Language (CSL /Kostić, Đ., 2001/ that covers period between 1945. and 1957. and the other derived from the Ebart Media Documentation (EBR that was complied from seven daily news and five weekly magazines from 2002. and 2003. Each sample consisted of about 1 million words. The obtained results indicate that nouns and adjectives were more frequent in the CSL, while verbs and prepositions are more frequent in the EBR sample, suggesting a decrease of sentence length in the last five decades. Conspicuous changes in probability distribution of individual words were observed for nouns and adjectives, while minimal or no changes were observed for verbs and prepositions. Such an outcome suggests that nouns and adjectives are most susceptible to diachronic changes, while verbs and prepositions appear to be resistant to such changes.

Decomposition of Changes in Earnings Inequality in China: A Distributional Approach

OpenAIRE

Chi, Wei; Li, Bo; Yu, Qiumei

2007-01-01

Using the nationwide household data, this study examines the changes in the Chinese urban income distributions from 1987 to 1996 and from 1996 to 2004, and investigates the causes of these changes. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is applied to decomposing the mean earnings increases, and the Firpo-Fortin-Lemieux method based upon a recentered influence function is used to decompose the changes in the income distribution and the inequality measures such as the variance and the 10-90 r...

Changing distributions of Cantharidae and Buprestidae within Great Britain (Coleoptera)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alexander, K.

2003-01-01

Changing distributions of Cantharidae and Buprestidae within Great Britain (Coleoptera) Data are presented on the distribution of selected species from two coleopteran families chosen to represent a random slice of the British fauna. The species have been chosen as exhibiting extremes of range

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

The country of distribution effect on the brand attitude change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Mauro da Costa Hernandez

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This research investigates the country of distribution effect on the change of attitudes towards a brand. Country of distribution is defined as the results (positive or negative obtained by a brand when it communicates to be distributed in a foreigner locale. The results of three experiments demonstrate that the country of distribution effect is higher when the country is a traditional manufacturer (vs. non-traditional manufacturer of the brand’s product category. Further, the country of distribution effect is higher for high quality (vs. low quality brands and is moderated by the perceived success of the brand in the distribution country.

Explaining the food safety behaviours of food handlers using theories of behaviour change: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Ian; Thaivalappil, Abhinand; Greig, Judy; Meldrum, Richard; Waddell, Lisa

2018-06-01

Theories of behaviour change can explain the factors affecting food handlers' use of food safety practices. A systematic review was conducted on this topic to identify which theories have been applied in this area and to determine which theories are the most consistent predictors of food handlers' behaviours. Standard systematic review procedures were followed: comprehensive search strategy; relevance screening of abstracts; article characterization; data extraction; risk-of-bias assessment; and descriptive analysis. Among 19 relevant studies, the most commonly investigated theories were the Theory of Planned Behaviour (n = 9 studies) and Health Belief Model (n = 5). All investigated theories were useful to explain food handlers' behavioural intentions and behaviours related to food safety across different settings, and could serve as useful frameworks for future research and practice. However, there was wide variability in the predictive ability of the theories and their specific constructs, indicating theories should be adapted to the local context of application.

Size Evolution and Stochastic Models: Explaining Ostracod Size through Probabilistic Distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Krawczyk, M.; Decker, S.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

2014-12-01

The biovolume of animals has functioned as an important benchmark for measuring evolution throughout geologic time. In our project, we examined the observed average body size of ostracods over time in order to understand the mechanism of size evolution in these marine organisms. The body size of ostracods has varied since the beginning of the Ordovician, where the first true ostracods appeared. We created a stochastic branching model to create possible evolutionary trees of ostracod size. Using stratigraphic ranges for ostracods compiled from over 750 genera in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology, we calculated overall speciation and extinction rates for our model. At each timestep in our model, new lineages can evolve or existing lineages can become extinct. Newly evolved lineages are assigned sizes based on their parent genera. We parameterized our model to generate neutral and directional changes in ostracod size to compare with the observed data. New sizes were chosen via a normal distribution, and the neutral model selected new sizes differentials centered on zero, allowing for an equal chance of larger or smaller ostracods at each speciation. Conversely, the directional model centered the distribution on a negative value, giving a larger chance of smaller ostracods. Our data strongly suggests that the overall direction of ostracod evolution has been following a model that directionally pushes mean ostracod size down, shying away from a neutral model. Our model was able to match the magnitude of size decrease. Our models had a constant linear decrease while the actual data had a much more rapid initial rate followed by a constant size. The nuance of the observed trends ultimately suggests a more complex method of size evolution. In conclusion, probabilistic methods can provide valuable insight into possible evolutionary mechanisms determining size evolution in ostracods.

Financial Effect of a Drug Distribution Model Change on a Health System.

Science.gov (United States)

Turingan, Erin M; Mekoba, Bijan C; Eberwein, Samuel M; Roberts, Patricia A; Pappas, Ashley L; Cruz, Jennifer L; Amerine, Lindsey B

2017-06-01

Background: Drug manufacturers change distribution models based on patient safety and product integrity needs. These model changes can limit health-system access to medications, and the financial impact on health systems can be significant. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to determine the health-system financial impact of a manufacturer's change from open to limited distribution for bevacizumab (Avastin), rituximab (Rituxan), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). The secondary aim was to identify opportunities to shift administration to outpatient settings to support formulary change. Methods: To assess the financial impact on the health system, the cost minus discount was applied to total drug expenditure during a 1-year period after the distribution model change. The opportunity analysis was conducted for three institutions within the health system through chart review of each inpatient administration. Opportunity cost was the sum of the inpatient administration cost and outpatient administration margin. Results: The total drug expenditure for the study period was $26 427 263. By applying the cost minus discount, the financial effect of the distribution model change was $1 393 606. A total of 387 administrations were determined to be opportunities to be shifted to the outpatient setting. During the study period, the total opportunity cost was $1 766 049. Conclusion: Drug expenditure increased for the health system due to the drug distribution model change and loss of cost minus discount. The opportunity cost of shifting inpatient administrations could offset the increase in expenditure. It is recommended to restrict bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab through Pharmacy & Therapeutics Committees to outpatient use where clinically appropriate.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Science.gov (United States)

Randin, C.; Engler, R.; Pearman, P.; Vittoz, P.; Guisan, A.

2007-12-01

Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In this study, we developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, we assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. We also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, we used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, we showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe B1 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the

Particle size distribution measurements of radionuclides from Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgi, B.; Tschiersch, J.

1988-01-01

Characteristics of the size distribution of the Chernobyl aerosol have been measured at four locations along the trajectory of the cloud. Changes in time and differences between 131 I and the other isotopes are explained by aerosol physical processes. The relevance of the measurements for dose calculations are discussed

Community structure informs species geographic distributions

KAUST Repository

Montesinos-Navarro, Alicia

2018-05-23

Understanding what determines species\\' geographic distributions is crucial for assessing global change threats to biodiversity. Measuring limits on distributions is usually, and necessarily, done with data at large geographic extents and coarse spatial resolution. However, survival of individuals is determined by processes that happen at small spatial scales. The relative abundance of coexisting species (i.e. \\'community structure\\') reflects assembly processes occurring at small scales, and are often available for relatively extensive areas, so could be useful for explaining species distributions. We demonstrate that Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) can overcome several challenges to including community structure into studies of species distributions, despite having been little used to date. We hypothesized that the relative abundance of coexisting species can improve predictions of species distributions. In 1570 assemblages of 68 Mediterranean woody plant species we used BNI to incorporate community structure into Species Distribution Models (SDMs), alongside environmental information. Information on species associations improved SDM predictions of community structure and species distributions moderately, though for some habitat specialists the deviance explained increased by up to 15%. We demonstrate that most species associations (95%) were positive and occurred between species with ecologically similar traits. This suggests that SDM improvement could be because species co-occurrences are a proxy for local ecological processes. Our study shows that Bayesian Networks, when interpreted carefully, can be used to include local conditions into measurements of species\\' large-scale distributions, and this information can improve the predictions of species distributions.

Self-adaptive change detection in streaming data with non-stationary distribution

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Xiangliang; Wang, Wei

2010-01-01

Non-stationary distribution, in which the data distribution evolves over time, is a common issue in many application fields, e.g., intrusion detection and grid computing. Detecting the changes in massive streaming data with a non

Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tumiar Katarina Manik

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

Physical mechanism causing rapid changes in ultrarelativistic electron pitch angle distributions right after a shock arrival: Evaluation of an electron dropout event

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.-J.; Li, W.; Thorne, R. M.; Angelopoulos, V.; Ma, Q.; Li, J.; Bortnik, J.; Nishimura, Y.; Chen, L.; Baker, D. N.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Blake, J. B.; Fennell, J. F.

2016-09-01

Three mechanisms have been proposed to explain relativistic electron flux depletions (dropouts) in the Earth's outer radiation belt during storm times: adiabatic expansion of electron drift shells due to a decrease in magnetic field strength, magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial diffusion, and precipitation into the atmosphere (driven by EMIC wave scattering). Which mechanism predominates in causing electron dropouts commonly observed in the outer radiation belt is still debatable. In the present study, we evaluate the physical mechanism that may be primarily responsible for causing the sudden change in relativistic electron pitch angle distributions during a dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes during the main phase of the 27 February 2014 storm. During this event, the phase space density of ultrarelativistic (>1 MeV) electrons was depleted by more than 1 order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the outer radiation belt (3 pitch angle distribution under a compressed magnetic field topology based on actual solar wind conditions. Although these ultrarelativistic electrons exhibit highly anisotropic (peaked in 90°), energy-dependent pitch angle distributions, which appear to be associated with the typical EMIC wave scattering, comparison of the modeled electron distribution to electron measurements indicates that drift shell splitting is responsible for this rapid change in electron pitch angle distributions. This further indicates that magnetopause loss is the predominant cause of the electron dropout right after the shock arrival.

Health expenditure growth: looking beyond the average through decomposition of the full distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

de Meijer, Claudine; O'Donnell, Owen; Koopmanschap, Marc; van Doorslaer, Eddy

2013-01-01

Explanations of growth in health expenditures have restricted attention to the mean. We explain change throughout the distribution of expenditures, providing insight into how expenditure growth and its explanation differ along the distribution. We analyse Dutch data on actual health expenditures linked to hospital discharge and mortality registers. Full distribution decomposition delivers findings that would be overlooked by examination of changes in the mean alone. The growth rate of hospital expenditures is greatest at the middle of the distribution and is driven mainly by changes in the distributions of determinants. Pharmaceutical expenditures increase most rapidly at the top of the distribution and are mainly attributable to structural changes, including technological progress, making treatment of the highest cost cases even more expensive. Changes in hospital practice styles make the largest contribution of all determinants to increased spending not only on hospital care but also on pharmaceuticals, suggesting important spill over effects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Held, Isaac; Chen, Gang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Levy, Hiram

2011-09-01

Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide-like (CO) tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower-tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step toward an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a "Diagnosed Precipitation Impact" (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change

Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

2015-08-01

Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and

Dynamical complexity changes during two forms of meditation

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jin; Hu, Jing; Zhang, Yinhong; Zhang, Xiaofeng

2011-06-01

Detection of dynamical complexity changes in natural and man-made systems has deep scientific and practical meaning. We use the base-scale entropy method to analyze dynamical complexity changes for heart rate variability (HRV) series during specific traditional forms of Chinese Chi and Kundalini Yoga meditation techniques in healthy young adults. The results show that dynamical complexity decreases in meditation states for two forms of meditation. Meanwhile, we detected changes in probability distribution of m-words during meditation and explained this changes using probability distribution of sine function. The base-scale entropy method may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals.

Predator-induced changes in metabolism cannot explain the growth/predation risk tradeoff.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrich K Steiner

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Defence against predators is usually accompanied by declining rates of growth or development. The classical growth/predation risk tradeoff assumes reduced activity as the cause of these declines. However, in many cases these costs cannot be explained by reduced foraging effort or enhanced allocation to defensive structures under predation risk. Here, we tested for a physiological origin of defence costs by measuring oxygen consumption in tadpoles (Rana temporaria exposed to predation risk over short and long periods of time. The short term reaction was an increase in oxygen consumption, consistent with the "fight-or-flight" response observed in many organisms. The long term reaction showed the opposite pattern: tadpoles reduced oxygen consumption after three weeks exposure to predators, which would act to reduce the growth cost of predator defence. The results point to an instantaneous and reversible stress response to predation risk. This suggests that the tradeoff between avoiding predators and growing rapidly is not caused by changes in metabolic rate, and must be sought in other behavioural or physiological processes.

Marine distribution of arctic seabirds over six decades: changes and conservation applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wong, SNP; Johansen, Kasper Lambert; Lieske, DJ

Climate change is causing rapid changes in Arctic marine ecosystems and understanding its impacts on wildlife is critical for conservation management, especially as the decline in sea ice leads to increased development and vessel traffic. The Arctic supports hundreds of millions of seabirds, which...... collected from 1988 to 2015 and covering a combined 185,000 linear km, we examined the marine distribution of seabirds in sub-arctic and Arctic waters between Canada and Greenland, an area covering over 5,000,000 km2. We developed a predictive model to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence...... the distribution of arctic seabirds in summer and autumn and identified existing areas of high density. Comparing these results to at-sea surveys conducted in the same waters from 1966 - 1987, we examined how seabird distribution has changed over the last six decades. Understanding how changes in the marine...

[Does co-operation research provide approaches to explain the changes in the German hospital market?].

Science.gov (United States)

Raible, C; Leidl, R

2004-11-01

The German hospital market faces an extensive process of consolidation. In this change hospitals consider cooperation as one possibility to improve competitiveness. To investigate explanations of changes in the German hospital market by theoretical approaches of cooperation research. The aims and mechanism of the theories, their relevance in terms of contents and their potential for empirical tests were used as criteria to assess the approaches, with current and future trends in the German hospital market providing the framework. Based on literature review, six theoretical approaches were investigated: industrial organization, transaction cost theory, game theory, resource dependency, institutional theory, and co-operative investment and finance theory. In addition, the data needed to empirically test the theories were specified. As a general problem, some of the theoretical approaches set a perfect market as a precondition. This precondition is not met by the heavily regulated German hospital market. Given the current regulations and the assessment criteria, industrial organization as well as resource-dependency and institutional theory approaches showed the highest potential to explain various aspects of the changes in the hospital market. So far, none of the approaches investigated provides a comprehensive and empirically tested explanation of the changes in the German hospital market. However, some of the approaches provide a theoretical background for part of the changes. As this dynamic market is economically of high significance, there is a need for further development and empirical testing of relevant theoretical approaches.

Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, J.W.

1994-01-01

Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

Collaborative Professional Development for Distributed Teacher Leadership towards School Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sales, Auxiliadora; Moliner, Lidón; Francisco Amat, Andrea

2017-01-01

Professional development that aims to build school change capacity requires spaces for collaborative action and reflection. These spaces should promote learning and foster skills for distributed leadership in managing school change. The present study analyses the case of the Seminar for Critical Citizenship (SCC) established by teachers of infant,…

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.).

Science.gov (United States)

Heim, Nicole; Fisher, Jason T; Clevenger, Anthony; Paczkowski, John; Volpe, John

2017-11-01

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human-derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large-scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species' local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack-expected to decrease with climate change-was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

Economic Consequences of Fair Value Accounting and a Change in the Distribution Rule

OpenAIRE

Kochiyama, Takuma

2011-01-01

This research examines the economic consequences of fair value accounting and a change in the distribution rule. In Japan, fair value accounting for financial instruments was mandated from 2001, and unrealized revaluation profits were to be included in income statements. As an institutional correspondence to the change in accounting standards, Japanese Commerce Law implemented the deduction of revaluation profits from distributable profits. However, from 2006, the Japanese Company Act changed...

Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

2017-08-01

The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael; Heitmann, Berit L

2013-01-01

Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent changes in regional body fat distributions was examined. In total, 1,236 men and 1,201 women were included at baseline and participated in the Danish MONICA (MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease) study. A questionnaire was used to assess PA at 5 and 11 years after baseline examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). LTPA and OPA were associated with reduced subsequent 6-year changes in regional fat distribution for men. For women, no associations were observed in relation to WC; however, OPA seemed to increase HC among women. © 2013 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Identification of Climate Change with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahayu, Anita

2013-01-01

Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

2010-01-01

The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

Changes in Wage Distributions, Wage Gaps and Wage Inequality by Gender in Kenya

OpenAIRE

Richard U. Agesa; Jacqueline Agesa; Andrew Dabalen

2009-01-01

Using data from Kenya, the determinants of gender differences in the overall distribution of earnings are estimated as part of explaining the positive association between the return to measured and unmeasured human capital attributes as formalised by human capital theory (Mincer in 'Schooling Experience, and Earnings', New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Columbia University Press, 1974). The Kenyan data allows us to demonstrate that males possess relatively more human capital, and...

Measuring and explaining house price developments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Vries, P.

2010-01-01

This study discusses ways of measuring and explaining the development of house prices. The goal of the research underpinning this dissertation was to develop a methodological framework for studying these developments. This framework relates, first, to correcting for changes in the composition of

The Resilience of Dependency Effects in Explaining Income Inequality in the Global Economy: A Cross National Analysis, 1975-1995

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Beer

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The contemporary era is one of both accelerated economic globalization and rising inequality. There is an increasing awareness among both academic scholars and development professionals that globalization puts certain populations at risk. However, there has been inadequate theoretical analysis and a lack of up to date empirical studies that explain just how contemporary globalization a?ects inequality and the well being of individuals. This study explores the conditions under which TNC penetration and other globalization processes in?uence change in domestic income distribution. Its aim is to investigate whether theoretical models that have proven successful in explaining di?erences in income inequality cross-sectionally also allow for an understanding of the dynamics of income distribution during the 1980s and early 1990s, an era characterized by a dramatic acceleration of globalization. We present an analysis of change in national income distribution using linear regression models with a panel design. This study suggests that dependence on foreign investment as a development strategy, especially compared to domestic and human capital investment, may be misguided for nations concerned with equality. Net of other factors, foreign investment dependence bene?ts the elite segments of the income-earning population over the poorer eighty percent. Our analysis provides evidence of a shift in capital/labor relations brought about by globalization that has signi? cantly contributed to the rise in income inequality seen throughout the world.

Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

The Parana paradox: can a model explain the decadal impacts of climate variability and land-cover change?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, E.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Livino, A.; Briscoe, J.

2013-12-01

Since the 1970s, despite a decrease in rainfall, flow in the Parana river has increased. This paradox is explored using the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. If there were no change in land cover, the modeled runoff decreased from the 1970s to the 2000s by 11.8% (with 1970 land cover) or 18.8% (with 2008 land cover). When the model is run holding climate constant, the decadal average of the modeled runoff increased by 24.4% (with the 1970s climate) or by 33.6% (with 2000s climate). When the model is run allowing both the actual climate and land-cover changes, the model gives an increase in the decadal average of runoff by 8.5%. This agrees well with 10.5% increase in the actual stream flow as measured at Itaipu. There are three main conclusions from this work. First, the ED model is able to explain a major, paradoxical, reality in the Parana basin. Second, it is necessary to take into account both climate and land use changes when exploring past or future changes in river flows. Third, the ED model, now coupled with a regional climate model (i.e., EDBRAMS), is a sound basis for exploring likely changes in river flows in major South American rivers.

Late Quaternary climate-change velocity: Implications for modern distributions and communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalsgaard, Bo; Arge, Lars Allan

a global map of climate-change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and used this measure of climate instability to address a number of classic hypotheses. Results/Conclusions We show that historical climate-change velocity is related to a wide range of characteristics of modern distributions...

Distributed Leadership and Organizational Change: Implementation of a Teaching Performance Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Sloan, Tine

2013-01-01

This article explores leadership practice and change as evidenced in multiple data sources gathered during a self-study implementation of a teaching performance assessment. It offers promising models of distributed leadership and organizational change that can inform future program implementers and the field in general. Our experiences suggest…

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

Science.gov (United States)

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

An uncertainty importance measure using a distance metric for the change in a cumulative distribution function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chun, Moon-Hyun; Han, Seok-Jung; Tak, Nam-IL

2000-01-01

A simple measure of uncertainty importance using the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The entire change of CDFs is quantified in terms of the metric distance between two CDFs. The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, while most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution

Measuring efficiency and productivity change (PTF) in the Peruvian electricity distribution companies after reforms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perez-Reyes, Raul [Organismo Supervisor de la Inversion en Energia y Mineria, Osinergmin (Peru); Tovar, Beatriz [Infrastructure and Transport Research Group (EIT), Department of Applied Economics, University of Palmas de Gran Canaria (Spain)

2009-06-15

This paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the electricity distribution companies in Peru, to assess whether reforms have improved the efficiency in this sector. The paper also identifies potential sources of productivity changes, based on market restructuring the electricity sector and changes in property. To do this, we rely on a set of data for 14 distribution companies, for the period 1996-2006. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the efficiency and productivity of electricity distribution in Peru have occurred, and that there is a relationship between the restructuring of distribution sector and the enhancement of productivity. (author)

Measuring efficiency and productivity change (PTF) in the Peruvian electricity distribution companies after reforms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez-Reyes, Raul; Tovar, Beatriz

2009-01-01

This paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the electricity distribution companies in Peru, to assess whether reforms have improved the efficiency in this sector. The paper also identifies potential sources of productivity changes, based on market restructuring the electricity sector and changes in property. To do this, we rely on a set of data for 14 distribution companies, for the period 1996-2006. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the efficiency and productivity of electricity distribution in Peru have occurred, and that there is a relationship between the restructuring of distribution sector and the enhancement of productivity. (author)

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Generalization of Poisson distribution for the case of changing probability of consequential events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kushnirenko, E.

1995-01-01

The generalization of the Poisson distribution for the case of changing probabilities of the consequential events is done. It is shown that the classical Poisson distribution is the special case of this generalized distribution when the probabilities of the consequential events are constant. The using of the generalized Poisson distribution gives the possibility in some cases to obtain analytical result instead of making Monte-Carlo calculation

Modelling spatial distribution of snails transmitting parasitic worms with importance to human and animal health and analysis of distributional changes in relation to climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrik B. Pedersen

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The environment, the on-going global climate change and the ecology of animal species determine the localisation of habitats and the geographical distribution of the various species in nature. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of such changes on snail species not only of interest to naturalists but also of importance to human and animal health. The spatial distribution of freshwater snail intermediate hosts involved in the transmission of schistosomiasis, fascioliasis and paramphistomiasis (i.e. Bulinus globosus, Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis were modelled by the use of a maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent. Two snail observation datasets from Zimbabwe, from 1988 and 2012, were com- pared in terms of geospatial distribution and potential distributional change over this 24-year period investigated. Climate data, from the two years were identified and used in a species distribution modelling framework to produce maps of pre- dicted suitable snail habitats. Having both climate- and snail observation data spaced 24 years in time represent a unique opportunity to evaluate biological response of snails to changes in climate variables. The study shows that snail habitat suit- ability is highly variable in Zimbabwe with foci mainly in the central Highveld but also in areas to the South and West. It is further demonstrated that the spatial distribution of suitable habitats changes with variation in the climatic conditions, and that this parallels that of the predicted climate change.

Explaining Away Intuitions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan Ichikawa

2009-12-01

Full Text Available What is it to explain away an intuition? Philosophers regularly attempt to explain intuitions away, but it is often unclear what the success conditions for their project consist in. I attempt to articulate some of these conditions, taking philosophical case studies as guides, and arguing that many attempts to explain away intuitions underestimate the challenge the project of explaining away involves. I will conclude, therefore, that explaining away intuitions is a more difficult task than has sometimes been appreciated; I also suggest, however, that the importance of explaining away intuitions has often been exaggerated.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanlong Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

Explaining Choice and Share of Category Requirements of Biologic Meat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Verhoef (Peter); K. Vlagsma-Brangule (Kristine)

2003-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we examine factors determining choice and consumption of biologic or organic meat. In our model explaining choice and share of category requirements, we consider economic/marketing variables (quality, price, and distribution), emotions (fear, empathy, andguilt), social

Response of spatial vegetation distribution in China to climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Siyang; Xu, Xiaoting; Shrestha, Nawal; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Tang, Zhiyao; Wang, Zhiheng

2017-01-01

Analyzing how climate change affects vegetation distribution is one of the central issues of global change ecology as this has important implications for the carbon budget of terrestrial vegetation. Mapping vegetation distribution under historical climate scenarios is essential for understanding the response of vegetation distribution to future climatic changes. The reconstructions of palaeovegetation based on pollen data provide a useful method to understand the relationship between climate and vegetation distribution. However, this method is limited in time and space. Here, using species distribution model (SDM) approaches, we explored the climatic determinants of contemporary vegetation distribution and reconstructed the distribution of Chinese vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) and Middle-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP). The dynamics of vegetation distribution since the LGM reconstructed by SDMs were largely consistent with those based on pollen data, suggesting that the SDM approach is a useful tool for studying historical vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change across time and space. Comparison between the modeled contemporary potential natural vegetation distribution and the observed contemporary distribution suggests that temperate deciduous forests, subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests, temperate deciduous shrublands and temperate steppe have low range fillings and are strongly influenced by human activities. In general, the Tibetan Plateau, North and Northeast China, and the areas near the 30°N in Central and Southeast China appeared to have experienced the highest turnover in vegetation due to climate change from the LGM to the present. PMID:28426780

Historical changes in the importance of climate and land use as determinants of Dutch pollinator distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Kissling, W.D.; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.; Wallis de Vries, Michiel; Reemer, Menno; Carvalheiro, Luísa G.

2017-01-01

Aim: Species distribution models are often used to project species distributions to different environmental conditions. However, most models do not consider whether the importance of abiotic factors may change over time. If they change, this has implications for the assessment of how abiotic changes

Historical changes in the importance of climate and land use as determinants of Dutch pollinator distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J.; Kissling, W.D.; Biesmeijer, J.C.; WallisDeVries, M.F.; Reemer, M.; Carvalheiro, L.G.

2017-01-01

Aim Species distribution models are often used to project species distributions to different environmental conditions. However, most models do not consider whether the importance of abiotic factors may change over time. If they change, this has implications for the assessment of how abiotic changes

Species distributions and climate change - linking the past and the future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levinsky, Irina

Climate change is predicted to have a marked impact on biodiversity, and changes in the distributions of numerous species have already been correlated with ongoing climate change. Climatic oscillations, however, were also the rule during the Pleistocene, and a look to the past may therefore shed ...... conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, explore surrogates for the dispersal ability of African starlings and critically assess the tools I use and the assumptions behind them....

A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pasgaard, Maya; Strange, Niels

2013-01-01

investigates whether the need for knowledge on climate changes in the most vulnerable regions of the world is met by the supply of knowledge measured by scientific research publications from the last decade. A quantitative analysis of more than 15,000 scientific publications from 197 countries investigates...... the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change...... the distribution of climate change research and the potential causes of this distribution. More than 13 explanatory variables representing vulnerability, geographical, demographical, economical and institutional indicators are included in the analysis. The results show that the supply of climate change knowledge...

Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

Science.gov (United States)

Flint, P.L.; Mallek, E.J.; King, R.J.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bollinger, K.S.; Derksen, D.V.

2008-01-01

Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Electronic Health Record (EHR) Organizational Change: Explaining Resistance Through Profession, Organizational Experience, and EHR Communication Quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Ashley K

2018-04-01

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by the U.S. government in 2009 mandates that all healthcare organizations adopt a certified electronic health record (EHR) system by 2015. Failure to comply will result in Medicare reimbursement penalties, which steadily increase with each year of delinquency. There are several repercussions of this seemingly top-down, rule-bound organizational change-one of which is employee resistance. Given the penalties for violating EHR meaningful use standards are ongoing, resistance to this mandate presents a serious issue for healthcare organizations. This study surveyed 345 employees in one healthcare organization that recently implemented an EHR. Analysis of variance results offer theoretical and pragmatic contributions by demonstrating physicians, nurses, and employees with more experience in their organization are the most resistant to EHR change. The job characteristics model is used to explain these findings. Hierarchical regression analyses also demonstrate the quality of communication surrounding EHR implementation-from both formal and informal sources-is negatively associated with EHR resistance and positively associated with perceived EHR implementation success and EHR's perceived relative advantage.

The changing age distribution of prostate cancer in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Neutel, C Ineke; Gao, Ru-Nie; Blood, Paul A; Gaudette, Leslie A

2007-01-01

Prostate cancer incidence rates are still increasing steadily; mortality rates are levelling, possibly decreasing; and hospitalization rates for many diagnoses are decreasing. Our objective is to examine changes in age distributions of prostate cancer during these times of change. Prostate cancer cases were derived from the Canadian Cancer Registry, prostate cancer deaths from Vital Statistics, hospitalizations from the Hospital Morbidity File. Age-standardized rates were calculated based on the 1991 Canadian population. A prevalence correction for incidence rates was calculated. Age-specific incidence rates increased until 1995 for all ages, but a superimposed peak (1991-94) was greatest between ages 60-79. After 1995, increases in incidence continued for the under-70 age groups. Prevalence correction indicated the greatest underestimation of incidence rates for the oldest ages, but was less in Canada than in the United States. Mortality rates increased until 1994, then levelled and slowly decreased; age-specific mortality rates showed the greatest increase for the oldest ages but the earliest downturn for younger age groups. While hospitalizations dropped drastically after 1991, this drop was confined to elderly men (70+). Dramatic changes in age distributions of prostate cancer incidence, mortality and hospitalizations altered age profiles of men with prostate cancer. This illustrated the changing nature of prostate cancer as a public health issue and has important implications for health care provision, e.g., the increased numbers of younger new patients have different needs from the increasing numbers of elderly long-term patients who now spend less time in hospital.

Distributed Cognition in Sports Teams: Explaining Successful and Expert Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, Kellie; Cox, Rochelle

2014-01-01

In this article we use a hybrid methodology to better understand the skilful performance of sports teams as an exemplar of distributed cognition. We highlight key differences between a team of individual experts (an aggregate system) and an expert team (an emergent system), and outline the kinds of shared characteristics likely to be found in an…

Explaining the Allocation of Regional Structural Funds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charron, Nicholas

2016-01-01

What regional factors can explain the heterogeneity in Structural Funds distribution to European Union regions? Past studies have shown that aside from the level of economic development and rates of unemployment, other political, and economic factors systematically explain why certain European...... Union regions receive greater funding than others, in particular where there is room for bargaining. In this article, a novel theory is posited which argues that the determination of Structural Funds is based on an interaction between a region’s formal institutions (the level of a regional autonomy......) and informal institutions (its level of quality of government). In cases of low regional autonomy, member states and European Union level actors prefer to allocate greater levels of Funds to regions with lower quality of government in order to increase cohesion. Yet in cases of high regional autonomy, risks...

Load sharing in distributed real-time systems with state-change broadcasts

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Kang G.; Chang, Yi-Chieh

1989-01-01

A decentralized dynamic load-sharing (LS) method based on state-change broadcasts is proposed for a distributed real-time system. Whenever the state of a node changes from underloaded to fully loaded and vice versa, the node broadcasts this change to a set of nodes, called a buddy set, in the system. The performance of the method is evaluated with both analytic modeling and simulation. It is modeled first by an embedded Markov chain for which numerical solutions are derived. The model solutions are then used to calculate the distribution of queue lengths at the nodes and the probability of meeting task deadlines. The analytical results show that buddy sets of 10 nodes outperform those of less than 10 nodes, and the incremental benefit gained from increasing the buddy set size beyond 15 nodes is insignificant. These and other analytical results are verified by simulation. The proposed LS method is shown to meet task deadlines with a very high probability.

Niche segregation in two closely related species of stickleback along a physiological axis: explaining multidecadel changes in fish distribution from iron-induced respiratory impairment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verberk, W.C.E.P.; Munckhof, van den P.J.J.; Pollux, B.J.A.

2012-01-01

Acute exposure to iron can be lethal to fish, but long-term sublethal impacts of iron require further study. Here we investigated whether the spatial and temporal distribution (1967–2004) of two closely related species of stickleback matched the spatial distribution of iron concentrations in the

The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution

OpenAIRE

Tommaso Ciarli; Andre' Lorentz; Maria Savona; Marco Valente

2012-01-01

The paper proposes a model that explains cross-country growth divergences over time for different aspects of structural change. The model formalises the links between production technology, firm organisation (functional composition of employment) on the supply side and the endogenous evolution of income distribution and consumption patterns on the demand side. Wage distribution is the main channel between the organisation of firms and consumption patterns, and firm selection is the main trigg...

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillings, Simon; Balmer, Dawn E; Fuller, Robert J

2015-06-01

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harvey J Walsh

Full Text Available Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf. Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf

Explaining Physics – What Skills does a good Explainer Need?

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Bartels, Hauke

2018-01-01

Explaining physics in a way that it is both scientifically correct and comprehensible is a highly demanding practice. But are explanations an effective way to teach physics? Under which circumstances should a physics teacher explain – and is there such a thing as a guideline for effective instructional explanations? Of course, explaining is more than just presenting content knowledge in clear language – but what more? In our talk, we want to discuss empirical studies on instructional explanations from science education and psychology to address these questions. Among other things, we will refer to results from a large study aiming to research whether teacher education contributes to the development of explaining skills. Besides, we will give insights into a project that seeks to measure explaining skills with an interactive online test instrument.

Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Seibert

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.

Income distribution impacts of changes in Western Area Power Administration electricity prices. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rose, A.; Frias, O. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Mineral Economics

1993-06-01

The purpose of this report is to present the methodology and results of an analysis of income distribution impacts associated with changes in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) marketing program. The focus will be on the distribution of personal income across eleven brackets in each of nine sub-regions of the WAPA market area. Moreover, these results will be translated into an assessment of the number of people who stand to gain or lose as a result of the policies and the size of these income changes. Most economic impact analyses are performed at an aggregate level. The results are typically presented in terms of net benefits, or a listing of changes in employment, output, income, or prices. What is neglected is the distribution of impacts across the affected population. These distributional impacts are important for several reasons. First, there is the normative judgmental issue of distributional justice, or equity. This addresses concerns about income disparities in general, or whether the poor, or any other group, are shouldering a disproportionate share of any burden or are failing to share significantly in any gain.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Casajus

Full Text Available An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

2013-05-01

Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

On changing points of mean residual life and failure rate function for some generalized Weibull distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, M.; Goh, T.N.; Tang, Y.

2004-01-01

The failure rate function and mean residual life function are two important characteristics in reliability analysis. Although many papers have studied distributions with bathtub-shaped failure rate and their properties, few have focused on the underlying associations between the mean residual life and failure rate function of these distributions, especially with respect to their changing points. It is known that the change point for mean residual life can be much earlier than that of failure rate function. In fact, the failure rate function should be flat for a long period of time for a distribution to be useful in practice. When the difference between the change points is large, the flat portion tends to be longer. This paper investigates the change points and focuses on the difference of the changing points. The exponentiated Weibull, a modified Weibull, and an extended Weibull distribution, all with bathtub-shaped failure rate function will be used. Some other issues related to the flatness of the bathtub curve are discussed

[Relation between species distribution of plant community and soil factors under grazing in alpine meadow].

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Yu Jie; Yang, Si Wei; Wang, Gui Zhen; Liu, Li; Du, Guo Zhen; Hua, Li Min

2017-12-01

The research selected the alpine meadow located in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the changes of vegetation community and soil properties under different grazing intensities, as well as the quantitative relation between the distribution patterns of plant species and the physical and chemical properties of soil. The results showed that the grazing caused the differentiation of the initial vegetation community with the dominant plants, Elymus nutans and Stipa grandis. In the plots with high and low grazing intensities, the dominant plants had changed to Kobresia humilis and Melissitus ruthenica, and E. nutans and Poa crymophila, respectively. With the increase of grazing intensity, the plant richness, importance value and biomass were significantly decreased. The sequence of plant species importance value in each plot against grazing intensity could be fitted by a logarithmic model. The number of required plant species was reduced while the importance value of the remaining plant species accounted for 50% of the importance value in the whole vegetation community. The available P, available K, soil compaction, soil water content, stable infiltration rate and large aggregate index were significantly changed with grazing intensity, however, the changes were different. The CCA ordination showed that the soil compaction was the key factor affecting the distribution pattern of the plant species under grazing. The variance decomposition indicated that the soil factors together explained 30.5% of the distribution of the plant species, in particular the soil physical properties alone explained 22.8% of the distribution of the plant species, which had the highest rate of contribution to the plant species distribution. The soil physical properties affected the distribution pattern of plant species on grazed alpine meadow.

Explaining time changes in oral health-related quality of life in England: a decomposition analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsakos, Georgios; Guarnizo-Herreño, Carol C; O'Connor, Rhiannon; Wildman, John; Steele, Jimmy G; Allen, Patrick Finbarr

2017-12-01

Oral diseases are highly prevalent and impact on oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL). However, time changes in OHRQoL have been scarcely investigated in the current context of general improvement in clinical oral health. This study aims to examine changes in OHRQoL between 1998 and 2009 among adults in England, and to analyse the contribution of demographics, socioeconomic characteristics and clinical oral health measures. Using data from two nationally representative surveys in England, we assessed changes in the Oral Health Impact Profile-14 (OHIP-14), in both the sample overall (n=12 027) and by quasi-cohorts. We calculated the prevalence and extent of oral impacts and summary OHIP-14 scores. An Oaxaca-Blinder type decomposition analysis was used to assess the contribution of demographics (age, gender, marital status), socioeconomic position (education, occupation) and clinical measures (presence of decay, number of missing teeth, having advanced periodontitis). There were significant improvements in OHRQoL, predominantly among those that experienced oral impacts occasionally, but no difference in the proportion with frequent oral impacts. The decomposition model showed that 43% (-4.07/-9.47) of the decrease in prevalence of oral impacts reported occasionally or more often was accounted by the model explanatory variables. Improvements in clinical oral health and the effect of ageing itself accounted for most of the explained change in OHRQoL, but the effect of these factors varied substantially across the lifecourse and quasi-cohorts. These decomposition findings indicate that broader determinants could be primarily targeted to influence OHRQoL in different age groups or across different adult cohorts. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akiko Hirata

Full Text Available Pine wilt disease (PWD constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22. For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and two time periods (2050s and 2070s. We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area. Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Medlock Jolyon M

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick’s geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21st century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.

Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

2014-01-01

We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

Science.gov (United States)

Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

2017-09-01

Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial modelling of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus: parameter differences explain differences in biogeography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert John Wilson

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The North Atlantic copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus are moving north in response to rising temperatures. Understanding the drivers of their relative geographic distributions is required in order to anticipate future changes. To explore this, we created a new spatially explicit stage-structured model of their populations throughout the North Atlantic. Recent advances in understanding Calanus biology, including U-shaped relationships between growth and fecundity and temperature, and a new model of diapause duration are incorporated in the model. Equations were identical for both species, but some parameters were species-specific. The model was parameterized using Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data and tested using time series of abundance and fecundity. The geographic distributions of both species were reproduced by assuming that only known interspecific differences and a difference in the temperature influence on mortality exist. We show that differences in diapause capability are not necessary to explain why C. helgolandicus is restricted to the continental shelf. Smaller body size and higher overwinter temperatures likely make true diapause implausible for C. helgolandicus. Known differences were incapable of explaining why only C. helgolandicus exists southwest of the British Isles. Further, the fecundity of C. helgolandicus in the English Channel is much lower than we predict. We hypothesize that food quality is a key influence on the population dynamics of these species. The modelling framework presented can potentially be extended to further Calanus species.

Phenological changes in bamboo carbohydrates explain the preference for culm over leaves by giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca during spring.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrina K Knott

Full Text Available Seasonal changes in the foodscape force herbivores to select different plant species or plant parts to meet nutritional requirements. We examined whether the search for calorie-rich carbohydrates explained giant panda's selection for bamboo culm over leaves during spring. Leaves and culms were collected from four Phyllostachys bamboos (P. aurea, P. aureosulcata, P. glauca, and P. nuda once per month over 18-27 months. Monthly changes in annual plant part nutrients were examined, and compared to seasonal foraging behaviors of captive giant pandas. Although total fiber was greater (p<0.0001 in culm (85.6 ± 0.5% than leaves (55.3 ± 0.4% throughout the year, culm fiber was at its lowest in spring (79-85% when culm selection by giant pandas exceeded 70% of their overall diet. Culm starch also was greatest (p = 0.044 during spring (5.5 ± 1.1% and 2.5-fold the percentage of starch in leaves (2.2 ± 0.6%. The free sugars in spring culm consisted of a high proportion of glucose (35% and fructose (47%, whereas sucrose made up 42% of the total free sugar content of spring leaves. Bound sugars in culm consisted of 60% glucose and 38% xylose likely representative of hemicellulose. The concentrations of bound sugars (hemicelluloses in spring culms (543.7 ± 13.0 mg/g was greater (p<0.001 than in leaves (373.0 ± 14.8 mg/g. These data help explain a long-standing question in giant panda foraging ecology: why consume the plant part with the lowest protein and fat during the energetically intensive spring breeding season? Giant pandas likely prefer spring culm that contains abundant mono- and polysaccharides made more bioavailable as a result of reduced fiber content. These data suggest that phenological changes in bamboo plant part nutrition drive foraging decisions by giant pandas.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

A guide to distribution network operator connection and use of system methodologies and charging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-05-04

This report aims to help those developing or planning to develop power generation schemes connected to local electricity distribution systems (distributed generation) to understand the various regional network charging schemes in the UK. It is also intended to act as a route map to understand distribution charges as they are currently applied; further changes in charging arrangements between 2005 and 2010 are indicated and signposts to sources of further information are provided. The report explains the structure of distribution networks, the outcome of the regulatory review of distribution pricing undertaken by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) applicable from 1 April 2005 and how this affects distribution network operators (DNOs) and their distribution charges. The report considers: the energy policy framework in the UK; the commercial and regulatory framework that applies to distributed generators; DNOs and their regulatory framework; network charging methodologies and principles; charging statements; and areas of likely future changes. Individual schedules and contact details are given in an appendix for each DNO.

Understanding Changes in the Distribution of Household Incomes in New Zealand Between 1983-86 and 1995-98

OpenAIRE

Dean Hyslop; Dave Maré

2001-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of changes in the distribution of gross household income and income inequality over the period 1983–1998. The analysis applies a semiparametric approach to study the effects of changes in the distribution of household types, and changes in National Superannuation (old age pension), household socio-demographic attributes and employment outcomes, and in the “economic returns” to such attributes and employment outcomes on the distribution of income, and uses kerne...

Future changes in South American biomass distributions, biome distributions and plant trait spectra is dependent on applied atmospheric forcings.

Science.gov (United States)

Langan, Liam; Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven

2017-04-01

It remains poorly understood why the position of the forest-savanna biome boundary, in a domain defined by precipitation and temperature, differs in South America, Africa and Australia. Process based Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are a valuable tool to investigate the determinants of vegetation distributions, however, many DGVMs fail to predict the spatial distribution or indeed presence of the South American savanna biome. Evidence suggests fire plays a significant role in mediating forest-savanna biome boundaries, however, fire alone appear to be insufficient to predict these boundaries in South America. We hypothesize that interactions between precipitation, constraints on tree rooting depth and fire, affect the probability of savanna occurrence and the position of the savanna-forest boundary. We tested our hypotheses at tropical forest and savanna sites in Brazil and Venezuela using a novel DGVM, aDGVM2, which allows plant trait spectra, constrained by trade-offs between traits, to evolve in response to abiotic and biotic conditions. Plant hydraulics is represented by the cohesion-tension theory, this allowed us to explore how soil and plant hydraulics control biome distributions and plant traits. The resulting community trait distributions are emergent properties of model dynamics. We showed that across much of South America the biome state is not determined by climate alone. Interactions between tree rooting depth, fire and precipitation affected the probability of observing a given biome state and the emergent traits of plant communities. Simulations where plant rooting depth varied in space provided the best match to satellite derived biomass estimates and generated biome distributions that reproduced contemporary biome maps well. Future projections showed that biomass distributions, biome distributions and plant trait spectra will change, however, the magnitude of these changes are highly dependent on the applied atmospheric forcings.

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Xun, Bin; Sun, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

2014-01-01

Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

Change detection in polarimetric SAR images using complex Wishart distributed matrices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Skriver, Henning

In surveillance it is important to be able to detect natural or man-made changes e.g. based on sequences of satellite or air borne images of the same area taken at different times. The mapping capability of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is independent of e.g. cloud cover, and thus this technology...... scattering matrix, and after suitable preprocessing the outcome at each picture element (pixel) may be represented as a 3 by 3 Hermitian matrix following a complex Wishart distribution. One approach to solving the change detection problem based on SAR images is therefore to apply suitable statistical tests...... in the complex Wishart distribution. We propose a set-up for a systematic solution to the (practical) problems using the likelihood ratio test statistics. We show some examples based on a time series of images with 1024 by 1024 pixels....

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Context. Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective. We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and...

When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

2018-01-01

Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen

[Projection of potential geographic distribution of Apocynum venetum under climate change in northern China].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hui-Feng; Zheng, Jiang-Hua; Jia, Xiao-Guang; Li, Xiao-Jin

2017-03-01

Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant, its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month, annual mean air temperature, precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate, the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China, the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang, in the northern part of Gansu, in the southern part of Neimeng, in the northern part of Ningxia, in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi, in the southern part of Shanxi, in the middle and northern part of Henan, in the middle and southern part of Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070, the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Chanton, J.

2011-12-01

One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.

Present and future potential habitat distribution of Carcharhinus falciformis and Canthidermis maculata by-catch species in the tropical tuna purse-seine fishery under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nerea eLezama Ochoa

2016-03-01

Full Text Available By-catch species from tropical tuna purse seine fishery have been affected by fishery pressures since the last century; however, the habitat distribution and the climate change impacts on these species are poorly known. With the objective of predicting the potential suitable habitat for a shark (Carcharhinus falciformis and a teleost (Canthidermis maculata in the Indian, Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans, a MaxEnt species distribution model (SDM was developed using data collected by observers in tuna purse seiners. The relative percentage of contribution of some environmental variables (depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and primary production and the potential impact of climate change on species habitat by the end of the century under the A2 scenario (scenario with average concentrations of carbon dioxide of 856 ppm by 2100 were also evaluated. Results showed that by-catch species can be correctly modelled using observed occurrence records and few environmental variables with SDM. Results from projected maps showed that the equatorial band and some coastal upwelling regions were the most suitable areas for both by-catch species in the three oceans in concordance with the main fishing grounds. Sea surface temperature was the most important environmental variable which contributed to explain the habitat distribution of the two species in the three oceans in general. Under climate change scenarios, the largest change in present habitat suitability is observed in the Atlantic Ocean (around 16% of the present habitat suitability area of Carcharhinus falciformis and Canthidermis maculata, respectively whereas the change is less in the Pacific (around 10% and 8% and Indian Oceans (around 3% and 2 %. In some regions such as Somalia, the Atlantic equatorial band or Peru’s coastal upwelling areas, these species could lose potential habitat whereas in the south of the equator in the Indian Ocean, the Benguela System and in the Pacific coast of

Robustness of the Drinking Water Distribution Network under Changing Future Demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agudelo-Vera, C.; Blokker, M.; Vreeburg, J.; Bongard, T.; Hillegers, S.; Van der Hoek, J.P.

2014-01-01

A methodology to determine the robustness of the drinking water distribution system is proposed. The performance of three networks under ten future demand scenarios was tested, using head loss and residence time as indicators. The scenarios consider technological and demographic changes. Daily

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

2017-09-01

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Rapacciuolo

Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records

Students' Development and Use of Models to Explain Electrostatic Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Kristin Elizabeth

The National Research Council (2012) recently published A Framework for K-12 Science Education that describes a vision for science classrooms where students engage in three dimensions--scientific and engineering practices, crosscutting concepts, and disciplinary core ideas--to explain phenomena or observations they can make about the universe around them. This vision of science instruction is a significant shift from current classroom instruction. This dissertation provides detailed examples of how students developed and used models to build causal explanations of phenomena. I co-taught classes that focused on having students develop and revise models of electric fields and atomic structure using a curriculum that was designed to align with the three-dimensional vision of learning. I developed case studies of eleven students from these classes. I analyzed the students' responses and interviewed the students throughout the school year. By comparing and contrasting the analysis across the analysis of students' interviews, I identified four themes: 1) students could apply their ideas to explain novel and abstract phenomena; 2) students struggled to connect changes in their atomic models to evidence, but ended up with dynamic models of atomic structure that they could apply to explain phenomena; 3) students developed models of atomic structure that they applied to explain phenomena, but they did not use models of electric fields in this way; and 4) too much focus on details interfered with students' ability to apply their models to explain new phenomena. This dissertation highlights the importance of focusing on phenomena in classrooms that aim at aligning with three-dimensional learning. Students struggled to focus on specific content and apply their ideas to explain phenomena at the same time. In order to apply ideas to new context, students had to shift their focus from recalling ideas to applying the ideas they do have. A focus on phenomena allowed students to show

Can the Theory of Motivation Explain Migration Decisions?

OpenAIRE

Natálie Reichlová

2005-01-01

According to Abraham Maslow's motivational theory, human action is motivated by five groups of human needs. The model introduced in this paper exploits Maslow's theory to explain migration flows between regions. In the model, movement from one place to another influences migrant's utility through three various ways. First, through change in wage caused by different wage levels in each location. Second, through changes in utility connected with individuals safety needs and finally, through dis...

Distribution and habitat of brazilian-pine according to global climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Silveira Wrege

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol. O. Kuntze., also known as brazilian-pine, is a forest native species from Brazil. A. angustifolia is more vulnerable to global climate change, considering it is living in cold and humid mountain regions from southern and southeastern Brazil. Among the native Brazilian forest species, it presents one of the greatest growth and genetic gain potential. It shows excellent wood quality and can still be used in human and animal food, presenting great economic, social and environmental value. In order to determine current distribution of the species and better know its habitat, we worked in the regions representing the borders of natural occurrence, identifying populations and getting trees altitude and geographycal position. Field information along with secondary data from the Environmental Information Center (CRIA were used to map current distribution of brazilian-pine and to project the distribution in the next decades, with the projection of future climate scenarios. Mapping studies of ecological niches in present and future climate scenarios characterizing the environments in which they are living is essential for a better understanding of the risks of species extinction and which mitigating measures could be adequate to reduce the impacts of global climate change on species, thus contributing to the conservation and knowledge of this important species.

Analytical performance specifications for changes in assay bias (Δbias) for data with logarithmic distributions as assessed by effects on reference change values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Lund, Flemming; Fraser, Callum G

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: The distributions of within-subject biological variation are usually described as coefficients of variation, as are analytical performance specifications for bias, imprecision and other characteristics. Estimation of specifications required for reference change values is traditionally...... done using relationship between the batch-related changes during routine performance, described as Δbias, and the coefficients of variation for analytical imprecision (CVA): the original theory is based on standard deviations or coefficients of variation calculated as if distributions were Gaussian....... METHODS: The distribution of between-subject biological variation can generally be described as log-Gaussian. Moreover, recent analyses of within-subject biological variation suggest that many measurands have log-Gaussian distributions. In consequence, we generated a model for the estimation of analytical...

Rapid change of ion energy distribution and floating potential at L/H transition in the JFT-2M tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miura, Y.; Nagashima, K.; Okano, F.

1994-01-01

Rapid changes of the main ion energy distribution at transitions from L-to-H, H-to-L and during ELMs are studied with the time of flight neutral measurement in the JFT-2M tokamak. The change of the main ion energy distribution after sawtooth crash during an L-mode phase is also studied. The change of the ion energy distribution just after sawtooth crash is the same as that at L/H-transition. The floating potential measured in the SOL also shows the rapid jump to more positive just after the sawtooth crash (at the same time of the change of an ion energy distribution). This shows the increase of ion outflux in the SOL and might correspond to the change of the ion energy distribution. This may be the reason why most of H-modes are triggered by a sawtooth. (author)

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months

Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

2018-09-01

Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fukushima effects in Germany? Changes in media coverage and public opinion on nuclear power.

Science.gov (United States)

Arlt, Dorothee; Wolling, Jens

2016-10-01

Based on a literature review on factors that explain media effects and previous findings on media coverage and public opinion on nuclear power, this article examines the effects of Fukushima on media coverage and public opinion in Germany in two studies. The first study uses content analysis data to analyse changes in media coverage, and the second one is based on panel survey data to examine attitude changes on an individual level. The results of both studies show changes in media coverage and public opinion on nuclear power. Furthermore, the second study reveals that individual attitude changes cannot necessarily be explained by the same factors as the distribution of attitudes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Can Protection Motivation Theory explain farmers'adaptation to Climate change/variability decision making in the Gambia?

Science.gov (United States)

Bagagnan, A. R.

2016-12-01

In the Gambia, Changes in the climate pattern has affected and continue to affect the agriculture sector and therefore calling for effective adaptation policies. The present study aimed to explain farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measure through the protection motivation theory in The Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in all the eight communities of the study area. A transect walk was conducted first followed by a survey with 283 informants. The perception variables were referring to the past 20 years while the stated implementation was addressing the current adaptation practices. Results showed that on one hand, most of the perception variables such as severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers are significantly correlated to protection motivation and on the other hand Protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique are strongly correlated. Structural Equation Modeling confirms the mediation role of Protection motivation between Farmers stated implementation and their perception of climate variability. Decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, decrease of the length of the growing season are factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. Cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation is the main barrier to farmers `protection motivation. Therefore the study suggested that farmers' awareness about climate change/variability should be increased through farmers' field school and awareness campaigns, farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be made accessible to farmers through loans facilities and subsidizes application.

Explaining the Evolution of Poverty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Hussain, Azhar; Jones, Edward Samuel

2012-01-01

We provide a comprehensive approach for analyzing the evolution of poverty using Mozambique as a case study. Bringing together data from disparate sources, we develop a novel “back-casting” framework that links a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to a micro-simulation poverty module....... This framework provides a new approach to explaining and decomposing the evolution of poverty, as well as to examining rigorously the coherence between poverty, economic growth, and inequality outcomes. Finally, various simple but useful and rarely-applied approaches to considering regional changes in poverty...

Distributional impacts of climate change mitigation in Indian electricity: The influence of governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, Narasimha D.

2013-01-01

Studies that examine the distributional impacts of climate change mitigation policies often neglect the influence of institutions that implement these policies. This study examines the short-term consumption-side distributional impacts of expanding low-carbon electric supply in the state of Maharashtra, India with a focus on the influence of regulatory discretion in pricing. Households' welfare impacts from economy-wide electricity price shocks are simulated against a baseline that is calibrated to actual household economic and electricity service conditions, including actual electricity budgets, block tier prices and supply rationing. Industrial price impacts are propagated to households using a Leontief input–output analysis. Regulatory pricing decisions are evaluated based on social welfare metrics for economic efficiency and income inequality. The analysis reveals new linkages between climate change mitigation, electricity policy and income distribution. Low-income households can be shielded from mitigation impacts without losses in aggregate welfare to the extent that regulators can recover mitigation costs through industrial price increases. Regulators' flexibility to distribute costs across households is constrained by industrial customers' migration off the grid. Reduced supply interruptions to the rural poor from the resulting demand contraction are a potential co-benefit of mitigation. Distributional impacts, therefore, depend on other electricity policies that are driven by the political economy of the sector. - Highlights: • Indirect price increases harm most households less than residential price increases. • Regulators have flexibility to distribute mitigation costs across income groups. • Reduced supply interruptions are a potential co-benefit of mitigation

Evaluating the combined effects of climate and land-use change on tree species distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia-Valdes, Raul; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

2015-01-01

Summary: A large proportion of the world's biodiversity is reportedly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. However, there are few studies that investigate the interaction between these two threats using empirical data. Here, we investigate interactions between climate change and land-use...... change in the future distribution of 23 dominant tree species in mainland Spain. We simulated changes up to year 2100 using a climate-dependent Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model, parameterized with colonization and extinction events recorded in 46 596 survey plots. We estimated that the distribution of 17......% of the habitat, was estimated to reduce species occupancies (relative to baseline projections) by an average of 23% if habitat loss was spatially clumped, and by 35% if it was scattered. If habitat loss occurred in areas already impacted by human activities, species occupancies would be reduced by 26%. Land-use...

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

2016-02-12

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

Science.gov (United States)

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan P Lemoine

Full Text Available Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp. host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in

Can the observed association between serum perfluoroalkyl substances and delayed menarche be explained on the basis of puberty-related changes in physiology and pharmacokinetics?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Huali; Yoon, Miyoung; Verner, Marc-André; Xue, Jianping; Luo, Man; Andersen, Melvin E; Longnecker, Matthew P; Clewell, Harvey J

2015-09-01

An association between serum levels of two perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and delayed age at menarche was reported in a cross-sectional study of adolescents. Because perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) have half-lives of years, growth dilution and the development of a new route of excretion (menstruation) could account for some or all of the reported association. To assess how much of the epidemiologic association between PFAS and delayed menarche can be explained by the correlation of growth and maturation with PFAS body burden. We developed a Monte Carlo (MC) physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of PFAS to simulate plasma PFAS levels in a hypothetical female population aged 2 to 20years old. Realistic distributions of physiological parameters as well as timing of growth spurts and menarche were incorporated in the model. The association between PFAS level and delayed menarche in the simulated data was compared with the reported association. The prevalence of menarche, distributions of age-dependent physiological parameters, and quartiles of serum PFAS concentrations in the simulated subjects were comparable to those reported in the epidemiologic study. The delay of menarche in days per natural log increase in PFAS concentrations in the simulated data were about one third as large as the observed values. The reported relationship between PFAS and age at menarche appears to be at least partly explained by pharmacokinetics rather than a toxic effect of these substances. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in bacterial composition of biofilm in a metropolitan drinking water distribution system.

Science.gov (United States)

Revetta, R P; Gomez-Alvarez, V; Gerke, T L; Santo Domingo, J W; Ashbolt, N J

2016-07-01

This study examined the development of bacterial biofilms within a metropolitan distribution system. The distribution system is fed with different source water (i.e. groundwater, GW and surface water, SW) and undergoes different treatment processes in separate facilities. The biofilm community was characterized using 16S rRNA gene clone libraries and functional potential analysis, generated from total DNA extracted from coupons in biofilm annular reactors fed with onsite drinking water for up to 18 months. Differences in the bacterial community structure were observed between GW and SW. Representatives that explained the dissimilarity were associated with the classes Betaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Firmicutes. After 9 months the biofilm bacterial community from both GW and SW were dominated by Mycobacterium species. The distribution of the dominant operational taxonomic unit (OTU) (Mycobacterium) positively correlated with the drinking water distribution system (DWDS) temperature. In this study, the biofilm community structure observed between GW and SW were dissimilar, while communities from different locations receiving SW did not show significant differences. The results suggest that source water and/or the water quality shaped by their respective treatment processes may play an important role in shaping the bacterial communities in the distribution system. In addition, several bacterial groups were present in all samples, suggesting that they are an integral part of the core microbiota of this DWDS. These results provide an ecological insight into biofilm bacterial structure in chlorine-treated drinking water influenced by different water sources and their respective treatment processes. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Physical mechanism causing rapid changes in ultrarelativistic electron pitch angle distributions right after a shock arrival: Evaluation of an electron dropout event: Drift Shell Splitting on the Dayside

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, X.-J.; University of California, Los Angeles, CA; Li, W.; Boston University, MA; Thorne, R. M.

2016-01-01

Three mechanisms have been proposed to explain relativistic electron flux depletions (dropouts) in the Earth's outer radiation belt during storm times: adiabatic expansion of electron drift shells due to a decrease in magnetic field strength, magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial diffusion, and precipitation into the atmosphere (driven by EMIC wave scattering). Which mechanism predominates in causing electron dropouts commonly observed in the outer radiation belt is still debatable. In the present study, we evaluate the physical mechanism that may be primarily responsible for causing the sudden change in relativistic electron pitch angle distributions during a dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes during the main phase of the 27 February 2014 storm. During this event, the phase space density of ultrarelativistic (>1MeV) electrons was depleted by more than 1 order of magnitude over the entire radial extent of the outer radiation belt (3 < L* < 5) in less than 6 h after the passage of an interplanetary shock. We model the electron pitch angle distribution under a compressed magnetic field topology based on actual solar wind conditions. Although these ultrarelativistic electrons exhibit highly anisotropic (peaked in 90°), energy-dependent pitch angle distributions, which appear to be associated with the typical EMIC wave scattering, comparison of the modeled electron distribution to electron measurements indicates that drift shell splitting is responsible for this rapid change in electron pitch angle distributions. This further indicates that magnetopause loss is the predominant cause of the electron dropout right after the shock arrival.

Can Knowledge Deficit Explain Societal Perception of Climate Change Risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, R.; McNeal, K.; Bondell, H.

2014-12-01

Climate change literacy efforts have had a rough journey in the past decade. Although scientists have become increasingly convinced about anthropological climate change, change in public opinion has been underwhelming. The unexplained gap between scientific consensus and public opinion has made this topic an important research area in the realm of public understanding of science. Recent research on climate change risk perception (CCRP) has advanced an intriguing hypothesis, namely, cultural cognition thesis (CCT), which posits that the public has adequate knowledge to understand climate change science but people tend to use this knowledge solely to promote their culturally motivated view-point of climate change. This talk provides evidence to demonstrate that despite culture playing a significant role in influencing CCRP, knowledge deficiency remains a persistent problem in our society and contributes to the aforementioned gap. However, such deficits can remain undiagnosed due to limitations of survey design.

The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Xiuliang; Bai, Jie; Li, Longhui; Kurban, Alishir; De Maeyer, Philippe

2017-01-01

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM) by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78) mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12). The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang.

The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuliang Yuan

Full Text Available The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78 mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12. The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang.

Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

2018-06-01

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

Diverse effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Wang, Qianfeng; Liu, Yupeng

2017-07-01

Both crop distribution and climate change are important drivers for crop production and can affect food security, which is an important requirement for sustainable development. However, their effects on crop production are confounded and warrant detailed investigation. As a key area for food production that is sensitive to climate change, the agro-pastoral transitional zone (APTZ) plays a significant role in regional food security. To investigate the respective effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, the well-established GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted with different scenario designs in this study. From 1980 to 2010, the crop distribution for wheat, maize, and rice witnessed a dramatic change due to agricultural policy adjustments and ecological engineering-related construction in the APTZ. At the same time, notable climate change was observed. The simulation results indicated that the climate change had a positive impact on the crop production of wheat, maize, and rice, while the crop distribution change led to an increase in the production of maize and rice, but a decrease in the wheat production. Comparatively, crop distribution change had a larger impact on wheat (-1.71 × 106 t) and maize (8.53 × 106 t) production, whereas climate change exerted a greater effect on rice production (0.58 × 106 t), during the period from 1980 to 2010 in the APTZ. This study is helpful to understand the mechanism of the effects of crop distribution and climate change on crop production, and aid policy makers in reducing the threat of future food insecurity.

A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

2005-01-01

textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate

Can changes in psychosocial factors and residency explain the decrease in physical activity during the transition from high school to college or university?

Science.gov (United States)

Van Dyck, Delfien; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Deliens, Tom; Deforche, Benedicte

2015-04-01

When students make the transition from high school to college or university, their physical activity (PA) levels decrease strongly. Consequently, it is of crucial importance to identify the determinants of this decline in PA. The study aims were to (1) examine changes in psychosocial factors in students during the transition from high school to college/university, (2) examine if changes in psychosocial factors and residency can predict changes in PA, and (3) investigate the moderating effects of residency on the relationship between changes in psychosocial factors and changes in PA. Between March 2008 and October 2010, 291 Flemish students participated in a longitudinal study, with baseline measurements during the final year of high school and follow-up measurements at the start of second year of college/university. At both time points, participants completed a questionnaire assessing demographics, active transportation, leisure-time sports, psychosocial variables, and residency. Repeated measures MANOVA analyses and multiple moderated hierarchic regression analyses were conducted. Modeling, self-efficacy, competition-related benefits, and health-related, external and social barriers decreased, while health-related benefits and time-related barriers increased from baseline to follow-up. Decreases in modeling and time-related barriers were associated with a decrease in active transportation (adjusted R(2) = 3.2%); residency, decreases in self-efficacy, competition-related benefits, and increases in health- and time-related barriers predicted a decrease in leisure-time sports (adjusted R(2) = 29.3%). Residency only moderated two associations between psychosocial factors and changes in PA. Residency and changes in psychosocial factors were mainly important to explain the decrease in leisure-time sports. Other factors such as distance to college/university are likely more important to explain the decrease in active transportation; these are worth exploring in

Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Eduardo Sandoval

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.

Change detection in polarimetric SAR data and the complex Wishart distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Conradsen, Knut; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Schou, Jesper

2001-01-01

. Based on this distribution a test statistic for equality of two such matrices and an associated asymptotic probability for obtaining a smaller value of the test statistic are given and applied to change detection in polarimetric SAR data. In a case study EMISAR L-band data from 17 April 1998 and 20 May...

Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The case of Zambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hangoma, Peter; Aakvik, Arild; Robberstad, Bjarne

2017-01-01

Child health interventions were drastically scaled up in the period leading up to 2015 as countries aimed at meeting the 2015 target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDGs were defined in terms of achieving improvements in average health. Significant improvements in average child health are documented, but evidence also points to rising inequality. It is important to investigate factors that drive the increasing disparities in order to inform the post-2015 development agenda of reducing inequality, as captured in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated changes in socioeconomic inequality in stunting and fever in Zambia in 2007 and 2014. Unlike the huge literature that seeks to quantify the contribution of different determinants on the observed inequality at any given time, we quantify determinants of changes in inequality. Data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were utilized. Our sample consisted of children aged 0-5 years (n = 5,616 in 2007 and n = 12,714 in 2014). We employed multilevel models to assess the determinants of stunting and fever, which are two important child health indicators. The concentration index (CI) was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Changes in inequality of stunting and fever were investigated using Oaxaca-type decomposition of the CI. In this approach, the change in the CI for stunting/fever is decomposed into changes in CI for each determinant and changes in the effect-measured as an elasticity-of each determinant on stunting/fever. While average rates of stunting reduced in 2014 socioeconomic inequality in stunting increased significantly. Inequality in fever incidence also increased significantly, but average rates of fever did not reduce. The increase in the inequality (CI) of determinants accounted for the largest part (42.5%) of the increase in inequality of stunting, while the increase in the effect of determinants explained 35% of the increase. The

Polarization Raman spectroscopy to explain rodent models of brittle bone

Science.gov (United States)

Makowski, Alexander J.; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Mahadevan-Jansen, Anita

2013-03-01

Activation Transcription Factor 4 (Atf-4) is essential for osteoblast maturation and proper collagen synthesis. We recently found that these bones demonstrate a rare brittleness phenotype, which is independent of bone strength. We utilized a confocal Renishaw Raman microscope (50x objective; NA=.75) to evaluate embedded, polished cross-sections of mouse tibia from both wild-type and knockout mice at 8 weeks of age (24 mice, nmineral and collagen; however, compositional changes did not fully encompass biomechanical differences. To investigate the impact of material organization, we acquired colocalized spectra aligning the polarization angle parallel and perpendicular to the long bone axis from wet intact femurs. To validate our results, we used MMP9-/- mice, which have a brittleness phenotype that is not explained by compositional Raman measures. Polarization angle difference spectra show marked significant changes in orientation of these compositional differences when comparing wild type to knockout bones. Relative to wild-type, Atf4 -/- and MMP9 -/- bones show significant differences (t-test; pbones. Such findings could have alternate interpretations about net collagen orientation or the angular distribution of collagen molecules. Use of polarization specific Raman measurements has implicated a structural profile that furthers our understanding of models of bone brittleness. Polarization content of Raman spectra may prove significant in future studies of brittle fracture and human fracture risk.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. �

Power distribution changes caused by subcooled nucleate boiling at Callaway Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konya, M.J.; Bryant, K.R.; Hopkins, D.L.

1993-01-01

This paper reports the results of an evaluation undertaken by Union Electric (UE) and Westinghouse to explain anomalous behavior of the core axial power distribution at the Callaway Nuclear Power Plant. The behavior was characterized by a gradual unexpected power shift toward the bottom of the core and was first detected during cycle 4 at a core average burnup of approximately 7,000 MWD/MTU. Once started, the power shift continued until burnup effects became dominant and caused power to shift back to the top of the core at the end of the cycle. In addition to the anomalous power distribution, UE observed that estimated critical control rod position (ECP) deviations increased to over 500 pcm (0.5%Δk/k) during Cycles 4 and 5. ECPs for plant restarts that occurred early in each cycle agreed well with measured critical conditions. However, this agreement disappeared for restarts that occurred later in core life. After analyzing relevant data, performing scoping calculations and reviewing industry experience, the authors concluded that the power distribution anomaly was most likely caused by subcooled nucleate boiling. Crud deposition on the fuel was believed to enhance the subcooled boiling. The ECP deviations were a secondary effect of the power shift, since void fraction, axial burnup and xenon distributions departed design predictions during a substantial portion of the fuel cycles. Significant evidence supporting these conclusions include incore detector indications of flux depressions between intermediate flow mixing (IFM) and structural grids. In addition, visual exam results show the presence of crud deposits on fuel pins

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meier, Elaine S.; Kienast, Felix; Pearman, Peter B.

2010-01-01

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic var...

Large scale atmospheric tropical circulation changes and consequences during global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gastineau, G.

2008-01-01

The changes of the tropical large scale circulation during climate change can have large impacts on human activities. In a first part, the meridional atmospheric tropical circulation was studied in the different coupled models. During climate change, we find, on the one hand, that the Hadley meridional circulation and the subtropical jet are significantly shifted poleward, and on the other hand, that the intensity of the tropical circulation weakens. The slow down of the atmospheric circulation results from the dry static stability changes affecting the tropical troposphere. Secondly, idealized simulations are used to explain the tropical circulation changes. Ensemble simulation using the model LMDZ4 are set up to study the results from the coupled model IPSLCM4. The weakening of the large scale tropical circulation and the poleward shift of the Hadley cells are explained by both the uniform change and the meridional gradient change of the sea surface temperature. Then, we used the atmospheric model LMDZ4 in an aqua-planet configuration. The Hadley circulation changes are explained in a simple framework by the required poleward energy transport. In a last part, we focus on the water vapor distribution and feedback in the climate models. The Hadley circulation changes were shown to have a significant impact on the water vapour feedback during climate change. (author)

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

2016-01-01

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...

Can selection explain the protective effects of farming on asthma?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wijnand Eduard

2015-09-01

No healthy worker selection into farming was observed and changes in asthma prevalence due to early retirement were small. Selection effects are therefore unlikely to explain the protective effects of farming on asthma.

Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripszam, M; Gallampois, C M J; Berglund, Å; Larsson, H; Andersson, A; Tysklind, M; Haglund, P

2015-06-01

Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15°C and 4 mg DOCL(-1) and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18°C and 6 mg DOCL(-1), respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micro-level analysis of distributional changes in health care financing in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Klavus, J; Häkkinen, U

1998-01-01

In the early 1990s the Finnish economy suffered a severe recession at the same time as health care reforms were taking place. This study examines the effects of these changes on the distribution of contributions to health care financing in relation to household income. Explanations for changes in various indicators of health care expenditure and use during that time are offered. The analysis is based partly on actual income data and partly on simulated data from the base year (1990). It employs methods that allow the estimation of confidence intervals for inequality indices (the Gini coefficient and Kakwani's progressivity index). In spite of the substantial decrease in real incomes during the recession, the distribution of income remained almost unaltered. The share of total health care funding derived from poorer households increased somewhat, due purely to structural changes. The financial plight of the public sector led to the share of total funding from progressive income taxes to decrease, while regressive indirect taxes and direct payments by households contributed more. It seems that, aside from an increased financing burden on poorer households, Finland's health care system has withstood the tremendous changes of the early 1990s fairly well. This is largely attributable to the features of the tax-financed health care system, which apportions the effects of financial and functional disturbances equitably.

The change in spatial distribution of upper trapezius muscle activity is correlated to contraction duration.

Science.gov (United States)

Farina, Dario; Leclerc, Frédéric; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars; Buttelli, Olivier; Madeleine, Pascal

2008-02-01

The aim of the study was to confirm the hypothesis that the longer a contraction is sustained, the larger are the changes in the spatial distribution of muscle activity. For this purpose, surface electromyographic (EMG) signals were recorded with a 13 x 5 grid of electrodes from the upper trapezius muscle of 11 healthy male subjects during static contractions with shoulders 90 degrees abducted until endurance. The entropy (degree of uniformity) and center of gravity of the EMG root mean square map were computed to assess spatial inhomogeneity in muscle activation and changes over time in EMG amplitude spatial distribution. At the endurance time, entropy decreased (mean+/-SD, percent change 2.0+/-1.6%; Pgrid) root mean square was positively correlated with the shift in the center of gravity (R(2)=0.51, P<0.05). Moreover, the shift in the center of gravity was negatively correlated to both initial and final (at the endurance) entropy (R(2)=0.54 and R(2)=0.56, respectively; P<0.01 in both cases), indicating that subjects with less uniform root mean square maps had larger shift of the center of gravity over time. The spatial changes in root mean square EMG were likely due to spatially-dependent changes in motor unit activation during the sustained contraction. It was concluded that the changes in spatial muscle activity distribution play a role in the ability to maintain a static contraction.

Effect of the design change of the LSSBP on core flow distribution of APR+ Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kihwan; Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Hae-Seob; Kwon, Tae-Soon

2014-01-01

The uniform core inlet flow distribution of an Advanced Power Reactor Plus (APR+) is required to prevent the failure rate of the HIPER fuel assembly and improve the core thermal margin. KEPCO-E and C and KAERI proposed a design change of the Lower Support Structure Bottom Plate (LSSBP), since the core flow rates were intense near the outer region of the intact LSSBP in a previous study. In this study, an experiment was carried out to evaluate the effect of the design change of the LSSBP on the core flow distribution using the APR+ Core Flow and Pressure (ACOP) test facility. The results showed great improvement on the core flow distribution under a 4-pump balanced flow condition. Under the 4-pump balanced flow condition, fifteen tests were repeated using the ACOP test facility to verify the effect of the 50% blocked flow area at the outer region of the LSSBP on the core inlet flow distribution. The profiles of the core inlet mass flow rates were analyzed using ensemble averaged values, and compared with that of the intact LSSBP. The results showed great improvement for the overall core region. The change in design of the LSSBP is expected to improve the hydraulic performance of an APR+ reactor

Changes in the distribution of radiocesium in the wood of Japanese cedar trees from 2011 to 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogawa, Hideki; Hirano, Yurika; Igei, Shigemitsu; Yokota, Kahori; Arai, Shio; Ito, Hirohisa; Kumata, Atsushi; Yoshida, Hirohisa

2016-09-01

The changes in the distribution of (137)Cs in the wood of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) trunks within three years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNP) accident in 2011 were investigated. Thirteen trees were felled to collect samples at 6 forests in 2 regions of the Fukushima prefecture. The radial distribution of (137)Cs in the wood was measured at different heights. Profiles of (137)Cs distribution in the wood changed considerably from 2011 to 2013, and the process of (137)Cs distribution change in the wood was clarified. From 2011 to 2012, the active transportation from sapwood to heartwood and the radial diffusion in heartwood proceeded quickly, and the radial (137)Cs distribution differed according to the vertical positon of trees. From 2012 to 2013, the vertical diffusion of (137)Cs from the treetop to the ground, probably caused by the gradient of (137)Cs concentration in the trunk, was observed. Eventually, the radial (137)Cs distributions were nearly identical at any vertical positions in 2013. Our results suggested that the active transportation from sapwood to heartwood and the vertical and radial diffusion in heartwood proceeded according to the vertical position of the tree and (137)Cs distribution in the wood approached the equilibrium state within three years after the accident. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Explaining Cross-Country Differences in Attitudes Towards Immigration in the EU-15

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj; Munch, Jakob Roland; Schroll, Sanne

2009-01-01

In this paper, we use data from the first two rounds of the European Social Survey to analyze the extent to which differences in average attitudes towards immigration across the EU-15 countries may be explained by differences in socioeconomic characteristics and individually perceived consequences...... of immigration, using an extension of a decomposition technique developed by Fairlie (2005). We find that despite the significant effects of socioeconomic characteristics on attitudes, differences in the distributions of these characteristics can only explain a modest share of the cross-country variation...... in average attitudes. A larger part can be explained by differences in perceived consequences of immigration, but the main part is still left unexplained. Apart from providing useful input for policy makers working in the area of immigration policy, this raises a number of questions for further research...

Explaining Cross-Country Differences in Attitudes towards Immigration in the EU-15

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj; Munch, Jakob Roland; Schroll, Sanne

2007-01-01

In this paper, we use data from the first two rounds of the European Social Survey to analyze the extent to which differences in average attitudes towards immigration across the EU-15 countries may be explained by differences in socioeconomic characteristics and individually perceived consequences...... of immigration, using an extension of a decomposition technique developed by Fairlie (2005). We find that despite the significant effects of socioeconomic characteristics on attitudes, differences in the distributions of these characteristics can only explain a modest share of the cross-country variation...... in average attitudes. A larger part can be explained by differences in perceived consequences of immigration, but the main part is still left unexplained. Apart from providing useful input for policy makers working in the area of immigration policy, this raises a number of questions for further research...

Explaining Cross-Country Differences in Attitudes Towards Immigration in the EU-15

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj; Munch, Jakob Roland; Skaksen, Jan Rose

In this paper, we use data from the first two rounds of the European Social Survey to analyse the extent to which differences in average attitudes towards immigration across the EU-15 countries may be explained by differences in socioeconomic characteristics and individually perceived consequences...... of immigration, using an extension of a decomposition technique developed by Fairlie (2005). We find that despite the significant effects of socioeconomic characteristics on attitudes, differences in the distributions of these characteristics can only explain a modest share of the cross-country variation...... in average attitudes. A larger part can be explained by differences in perceived consequences of immigration, but the main part is still left unexplained. Apart from providing useful input for policy makers working in the area of immigration policy, this raises a number of questions for further research...

Change Management in public sector: A case study of gas distribution firm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alireza Shirvani

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper considers different approaches for establishment of change management in governmental agencies. The proposed model of this paper uses Kotter’s 8-step method in an empirical investigation for a gas distribution firm located in province of Esfahan, Iran. The results of this study reveal that the organization was successful to create sense of urgency, form a powerful coalition, create a vision for change, communicate the vision, create short-term wins and build on the change. However, the organization was not successful on removing obstacles and changes in corporate culture. In addition, the sixth step, create short -term wins, receives the highest rate of success while removing the obstacles maintains the minimum rate of success. Finally, the survey demonstrates that gender and educational background do not have any impact on change management but age, job experience as well as job position influences change management, significantly.

Climate change and spatial distribution of vegetation in Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Carlos Alarcon Hincapie

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Vegetation change under two climate change scenarios in different periods of the 21st Century are modeled for Colombia. Vegetation for the years 1970 to 2000 was reproduced using the Holdridge model with climate data with a spatial resolution of 900 meters. The vegetation types that occupied the most territory were sub-humid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and Andean wet forest. These results were validated by comparing with the Colombian ecosystem map (SINA, 2007, which confirmed a high degree of similarity between the modeled spatial vegetation patterns and modern ecosystem distributions. Future vegetation maps were simulated using data generated by a regional climate model under two scenarios (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2007 for the periods 2011-2040 and 2070-2100. Based on our predictions high altitude vegetation will convert to that of lower altitudes and drier provinces with the most dramatic change occurring in the A2 scenario from 2070-2100. The most affected areas are the páramo and other high Andean vegetation types, which in the timeframe of the explored scenarios will disappear by the middle of the 21st Century.

Explaining the Gap in Charter and Traditional Public School Teacher Turnover Rates

Science.gov (United States)

Stuit, David A.; Smith, Thomas M.

2012-01-01

This study uses national survey data to examine why charter school teachers are more likely to turnover than their traditional public school counterparts. We test whether the turnover gap is explained by different distributions of factors that are empirically and theoretically linked to turnover risk. We find that the turnover rate of charter…

Host-related factors explaining interindividual variability of carotenoid bioavailability and tissue concentrations in humans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bohn, Torsten; Desmarchelier, Charles; Dragsted, Lars Ove

2017-01-01

.g. smoking), gender and age, as well as genetic variations including single nucleotide polymorphisms that govern carotenoid metabolism. These are expected to explain interindividual differences that contribute to carotenoid uptake, distribution, metabolism and excretion, and therefore possibly also...

Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The case of Zambia

Science.gov (United States)

Hangoma, Peter; Aakvik, Arild; Robberstad, Bjarne

2017-01-01

explained 35% of the increase. The determinants with the greatest total contribution (change in CI plus change in effect) to the increase in inequality of stunting were mother’s height and weight, wealth, birth order, facility delivery, duration of breastfeeding, and maternal education. For fever, almost all (86%) the increase in inequality was accounted for by the increase in the effect of determinants of fever, while the distribution of determinants mattered less. The determinants with the greatest total contribution to the increase in inequality of fever were wealth, maternal education, birth order and breastfeeding duration. In the multilevel model, we found that the likelihood of a child being stunted or experiencing fever depends on the community in which they live. Conclusions To curb the increase in inequality of stunting and fever, policy may focus on improving levels of, and reducing inequality in, access to facility deliveries, maternal nutrition (which may be related to maternal weight and height), complementary feeding (for breastfed children), wealth, maternal education, and child care (related to birth order effects). Improving overall levels of these determinants contribute to the persistence of inequality if these determinants are unequally concentrated on the well off to begin with. PMID:28170442

Explaining changes in child health inequality in the run up to the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs: The case of Zambia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Hangoma

Full Text Available Child health interventions were drastically scaled up in the period leading up to 2015 as countries aimed at meeting the 2015 target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. MDGs were defined in terms of achieving improvements in average health. Significant improvements in average child health are documented, but evidence also points to rising inequality. It is important to investigate factors that drive the increasing disparities in order to inform the post-2015 development agenda of reducing inequality, as captured in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs. We investigated changes in socioeconomic inequality in stunting and fever in Zambia in 2007 and 2014. Unlike the huge literature that seeks to quantify the contribution of different determinants on the observed inequality at any given time, we quantify determinants of changes in inequality.Data from the 2007 and 2014 waves of the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS were utilized. Our sample consisted of children aged 0-5 years (n = 5,616 in 2007 and n = 12,714 in 2014. We employed multilevel models to assess the determinants of stunting and fever, which are two important child health indicators. The concentration index (CI was used to measure the magnitude of inequality. Changes in inequality of stunting and fever were investigated using Oaxaca-type decomposition of the CI. In this approach, the change in the CI for stunting/fever is decomposed into changes in CI for each determinant and changes in the effect-measured as an elasticity-of each determinant on stunting/fever.While average rates of stunting reduced in 2014 socioeconomic inequality in stunting increased significantly. Inequality in fever incidence also increased significantly, but average rates of fever did not reduce. The increase in the inequality (CI of determinants accounted for the largest part (42.5% of the increase in inequality of stunting, while the increase in the effect of determinants explained 35% of the

Application of first order rate kinetics to explain changes in bloom toxicity—the importance of understanding cell toxin quotas

Science.gov (United States)

Orr, Philip T.; Willis, Anusuya; Burford, Michele A.

2018-04-01

Cyanobacteria are oxygenic photosynthetic Gram-negative bacteria that can form potentially toxic blooms in eutrophic and slow flowing aquatic ecosystems. Bloom toxicity varies spatially and temporally, but understanding the mechanisms that drive these changes remains largely a mystery. Changes in bloom toxicity may result from changes in intracellular toxin pool sizes of cyanotoxins with differing molecular toxicities, and/or from changes in the cell concentrations of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacterial species or strains within bloom populations. We show here how first-order rate kinetics at the cellular level can be used to explain how environmental conditions drive changes in bloom toxicity at the ecological level. First order rate constants can be calculated for changes in cell concentration (μ c: specific cell division rate) or the volumetric biomass concentration (μ g: specific growth rate) between short time intervals throughout the cell cycle. Similar first order rate constants can be calculated for changes in nett volumetric cyanotoxin concentration (μ tox: specific cyanotoxin production rate) over similar time intervals. How μ c (or μ g ) covaries with μ tox over the cell cycle shows conclusively when cyanotoxins are being produced and metabolised, and how the toxicity of cells change in response to environment stressors. When μ tox/μ c>1, cyanotoxin cell quotas increase and individual cells become more toxic because the nett cyanotoxin production rate is higher than the cell division rate. When μ tox/μ c=1, cell cyanotoxin quotas remains fixed because the nett cyanotoxin production rate matches the cell division rate. When μ tox/μ ccyanotoxin cell quota decreases because either the nett cyanotoxin production rate is lower than the cell division rate, or metabolic breakdown and/or secretion of cyanotoxins is occurring. These fundamental equations describe cyanotoxin metabolism dynamics at the cellular level and provide the necessary

Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslava Garza

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050 distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3 and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2 were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.

Implications of human induced changes on the distribution of important plant species in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marwa Waseem Halmy

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The application of species distribution modeling in deserts is a useful tool for mapping species and assessing the impact of human induced changes on individual species. Such applications are still rare, and this may be attributed to the fact that much of the arid lands and deserts around the world are located in inaccessible areas. Few studies have conducted spatially explicit modeling of plant species distribution in Egypt. The random forest modeling approach was applied to climatic and land-surface parameters to predict the distribution of ten important plant species in an arid landscape in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt. The impact of changes in land use and climate on the distribution of the plant species was assessed. The results indicate that the changes in land use in the area have resulted in habitat loss for all the modeled species. Projected future changes in land use reveals that all the modeled species will continue to suffer habitat loss. The projected impact of modeled climate scenarios (A1B, A2A and B2A on the distribution of the modeled species by 2040 varied. Some of the species were projected to be adversely affected by the changes in climate, while other species are expected to benefit from these changes. The combined impact of the changes in land use and climate pose serious threats to most of the modeled species. The study found that all the species are expected to suffer loss in habitat, except Gymnocarpos decanderus. The study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of land use/climate change scenarios on other species of restricted distribution in the area and can help shape policy and mitigation measures directed toward biodiversity conservation in Egypt.

The in-situ cometary particulate size distribution measured for one comet: P/Halley

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonnell, J.A.M.; Pankiewicz, G.S.

1989-01-01

The close approach of Giotto to comet Halley during its 1986 apparition offered an opportunity to study the particulate mass distribution to masses of up to one gram. Data acquired by the front end channels of the highly sensitive mass spectrometer PIA and the dust shield detector system, DIDSY, provide definition to the detected distribution as close as 1000 km to the nucleus. Dynamic motion of the particulates after emission leads to a spatial differentiation affecting the size distribution in several forms: (1) ejecta velocity dispersion; (2) radiation pressure; (3) varying heliocentric distance; and (4) anisotropic nucleus emission. Transformation of the in-situ distribution from PIA and DIDSY weighted heavily by the near-nucleus fluxes leads to a presumed nucleus distribution. The data lead to a puzzling distribution at large masses, not readily explained in an otherwise monotonous power law distribution. Although temporal changes in nucleus activity could and do modify the in-situ size distribution, such an explanation is not wholly possible, because the same form is observed at differing locations in the coma where the time of flight from the nucleus greatly varies. Thus neither a general change in comet activity nor spatial variations lead to a satisfactory explanation

Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sangermano, Florencia

2009-12-01

The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

Anti-islanding Protection of Distributed Generation Using Rate of Change of Impedance

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Pragnesh; Bhalja, Bhavesh

2013-08-01

Distributed Generation (DG), which is interlinked with distribution system, has inevitable effect on distribution system. Integrating DG with the utility network demands an anti-islanding scheme to protect the system. Failure to trip islanded generators can lead to problems such as threats to personnel safety, out-of-phase reclosing, and degradation of power quality. In this article, a new method for anti-islanding protection based on impedance monitoring of distribution network is carried out in presence of DG. The impedance measured between two phases is used to derive the rate of change of impedance (dz/dt), and its peak values are used for final trip decision. Test data are generated using PSCAD/EMTDC software package and the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in MatLab software. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme as it is capable to detect islanding condition accurately. Subsequently, it is also observed that the proposed scheme does not mal-operate during other disturbances such as short circuit and switching event.

Determinants of Dentists' Geographic Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Beazoglou, Tryfon J.; And Others

1992-01-01

A model for explaining the geographic distribution of dentists' practice locations is presented and applied to particular market areas in Connecticut. Results show geographic distribution is significantly related to a few key variables, including demography, disposable income, and housing prices. Implications for helping students make practice…

Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

Science.gov (United States)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

2017-04-01

As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in

The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Reu

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current vegetation models employ empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider trade-offs in plant functioning and their responses under climatic changes to forecast and explain changes in plant functional richness and shifts in biome geographic distributions.

The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including ecophysiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We use JeDi to quantify changes in plant functional richness and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

Our results show (i a significant loss of plant functional richness in the tropics, (ii an increase in plant functional richness at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a pole-ward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants. We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships. Such a mechanistic approach may be particularly relevant when addressing vegetation responses to climatic changes that encounter novel combinations of climate parameters that do not exist under contemporary climate.

Can a one-layer optical skin model including melanin and inhomogeneously distributed blood explain spatially resolved diffuse reflectance spectra?

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Hanna; Pettersson, Anders; Larsson, Marcus; Strömberg, Tomas

2011-02-01

Model based analysis of calibrated diffuse reflectance spectroscopy can be used for determining oxygenation and concentration of skin chromophores. This study aimed at assessing the effect of including melanin in addition to hemoglobin (Hb) as chromophores and compensating for inhomogeneously distributed blood (vessel packaging), in a single-layer skin model. Spectra from four humans were collected during different provocations using a twochannel fiber optic probe with source-detector separations 0.4 and 1.2 mm. Absolute calibrated spectra using data from either a single distance or both distances were analyzed using inverse Monte Carlo for light transport and Levenberg-Marquardt for non-linear fitting. The model fitting was excellent using a single distance. However, the estimated model failed to explain spectra from the other distance. The two-distance model did not fit the data well at either distance. Model fitting was significantly improved including melanin and vessel packaging. The most prominent effect when fitting data from the larger separation compared to the smaller separation was a different light scattering decay with wavelength, while the tissue fraction of Hb and saturation were similar. For modeling spectra at both distances, we propose using either a multi-layer skin model or a more advanced model for the scattering phase function.

A longitudinal study to explain strategies to change weight and muscles among normal weight and overweight children.

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, M P; Ricciardelli, L A; Holt, K

2005-12-01

Previous research has indicated that both boys and girls strive for a slim body, with boys having an additional focus on a muscular body build. The current study was designed to evaluate the utility of a biopsychosocial model to explain body image and body change strategies among children. The study evaluated changes over time in body image and strategies to lose weight and increase muscles among 132 normal weight and 67 overweight boys (mean age = 9.23 years) and 158 normal weight and 55 overweight girls (mean age = 9.33 years). The predictive role of BMI, positive and negative affect, self-esteem and perceived sociocultural pressures to lose weight or increase muscle on body image and body change strategies over a 16 month period was evaluated. All participants completed the questionnaire on both occasions. The results demonstrated that both overweight boys and girls were more likely to be dissatisfied with their weight, place more importance on their weight, engage in more strategies to lose weight as well as perceive more pressure to lose weight. Overweight boys and girls were also more likely to report lower levels of self-esteem and positive affect, and higher levels of negative affect, and reported a reduction in their self-esteem over time. Regression analyses demonstrated that among overweight boys, low self-esteem and high levels of perceived pressure to lose weight predicted weight dissatisfaction; for overweight girls, weight dissatisfaction was also predicted by low levels of self-esteem. The implication of these findings in terms of factors contributing to the adoption of health risk behaviors among children is discussed.

Can molecular cell biology explain chromosome motions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gagliardi L

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mitotic chromosome motions have recently been correlated with electrostatic forces, but a lingering "molecular cell biology" paradigm persists, proposing binding and release proteins or molecular geometries for force generation. Results Pole-facing kinetochore plates manifest positive charges and interact with negatively charged microtubule ends providing the motive force for poleward chromosome motions by classical electrostatics. This conceptual scheme explains dynamic tracking/coupling of kinetochores to microtubules and the simultaneous depolymerization of kinetochore microtubules as poleward force is generated. Conclusion We question here why cells would prefer complex molecular mechanisms to move chromosomes when direct electrostatic interactions between known bound charge distributions can accomplish the same task much more simply.

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueri, Sibylle; Bopp, Laurent; Maury, Olivier

2014-03-01

Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya.

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Aryal, Achyut; Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Ji, Weihong; Ale, Som B; Shrestha, Sujata; Ingty, Tenzing; Maraseni, Tek; Cockfield, Geoff; Raubenheimer, David

2016-06-01

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator-prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km(2)) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km(2) (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator-prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards - a species already facing energetic constraints due to the

Predicted altitudinal shifts and reduced spatial distribution of Leishmania infantum vector species under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina

2014-01-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L

Modeling and distributed gain scheduling strategy for load frequency control in smart grids with communication topology changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shichao; Liu, Xiaoping P; El Saddik, Abdulmotaleb

2014-03-01

In this paper, we investigate the modeling and distributed control problems for the load frequency control (LFC) in a smart grid. In contrast with existing works, we consider more practical and real scenarios, where the communication topology of the smart grid changes because of either link failures or packet losses. These topology changes are modeled as a time-varying communication topology matrix. By using this matrix, a new closed-loop power system model is proposed to integrate the communication topology changes into the dynamics of a physical power system. The globally asymptotical stability of this closed-loop power system is analyzed. A distributed gain scheduling LFC strategy is proposed to compensate for the potential degradation of dynamic performance (mean square errors of state vectors) of the power system under communication topology changes. In comparison to conventional centralized control approaches, the proposed method can improve the robustness of the smart grid to the variation of the communication network as well as to reduce computation load. Simulation results show that the proposed distributed gain scheduling approach is capable to improve the robustness of the smart grid to communication topology changes. © 2013 ISA. Published by ISA. All rights reserved.

The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Breugel, Paulo

and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...... and how this is likely to change under different climate change scenarios. Chapter 4 presents an environmental gap analysis to prioritize conservation efforts in eastern Africa, based on an evaluation of the environmental representativeness of protected areas and an assessment of the level of threat...... distribution in eastern African, examine how this may change under future climates, and how this can be used to identify conservation priorities in the region. Chapter 1 presents a brief overview of the concept of the potential natural vegetation (PNV), synthesizes the general findings and discusses future...

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 6. Distribution and Productivity of Unmanaged Ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M.; Rosenberg, N.J. [The Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, Maryland, 20740-2496 (United States); Brown, R.A. [Independent Project Analysis, 11150 Sunset Hills Rd., Suite 3, Reston, Virginia, 20190 (United States)

2005-03-01

Human activities have altered the distribution and quality of terrestrial ecosystems. Future demands for goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems will occur in a world experiencing human-induced climate change. In this study, we characterize the range in response of unmanaged ecosystems in the conterminous U.S. to 12 climate change scenarios. We obtained this response by simulating the climatically induced shifts in net primary productivity and geographical distribution of major biomes in the conterminous U.S. with the BIOME 3 model. BIOME 3 captured well the potential distribution of major biomes across the U.S. under baseline (current) climate. BIOME 3 also reproduced the general trends of observed net primary production (NPP) acceptably. The NPP projections were reasonable for forests, but not for grasslands where the simulated values were always greater than those observed. Changes in NPP would be most severe under the BMRC climate change scenario in which severe changes in regional temperatures are projected. Under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios, NPP generally increases, especially in the West where increases in precipitation are projected to be greatest. A CO2-fertilization effect either amplified increases or alleviated losses in modeled NPP. Changes in NPP were also associated with changes in the geographic distribution of major biomes. Temperate/boreal mixed forests would cover less land in the U.S. under most of the climate change scenarios examined. Conversely, the temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests would increase in areal extent under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios. The Arid Shrubland/Steppe would spread significantly across the southwest U.S. under the BMRC scenario. A map overlay of the simulated regions that would lose or gain capacity to produce corn and wheat on top of the projected distribution of natural ecosystems under the BMRC and UIUC scenarios (Global mean temperature increase of +2.5C, no CO2 effect

Do differences in attitudes explain differences in national climate change policies?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tjernstroem, E.; Tietenberg, T.

2008-01-01

In meeting the threat posed by climate change nations have responded quite differently. Using an extensive data set this study explores factors that affect individuals' attitudes towards climate change and how those attitudes ultimately affect national climate change policy. The results show that attitudes do indeed matter in implementing policy and that attitudes are shaped not only by how individuals react to the specific attributes of climate change, but also by information, by the openness of society and by attitudes toward the trustworthiness of government. (author)

Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard R. Veit

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Population level impacts upon seabirds from changing climate are increasingly evident, and include effects on phenology, migration, dispersal, annual survivorship and reproduction. Most population data on seabirds derive from nesting colonies; documented climate impacts on winter ecology are scarce. We studied interannual variability in winter abundance of six species of alcids (Charadriiformes, Alcidae from a 58-year time series of data collected in Massachusetts 1954-2011. We used counts of birds taken during fall and winter from coastal vantage points. Counts were made by amateur birders, but coverage was consistent in timing and location. We found significant association between winter abundance of all six species of alcids and climate, indexed by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, at two temporal scales: 1. Significant linear trends at the 58-year scale of the time series; and 2. Shorter term fluctuations corresponding to the 5-8 year periodicity of NAO. Thus, variation in winter abundance of all six species of alcids was significantly related to the combined short-term and longer-term components of variation in NAO. Two low-Arctic species (Atlantic Puffin and Black Guillemot peaked during NAO positive years, while two high Arctic species (Dovekie and Thick-billed Murre peaked during NAO negative years. For Common Murres and Razorbills, southward shifts in winter distribution have been accompanied by southward expansion of breeding range, and increase within the core of the range. The proximate mechanism governing these changes is unclear, but, as for most other species of seabirds whose distributions have changed with climate, seems likely to be through their prey.

Children's Theories and the Drive to Explain

Science.gov (United States)

Schwitzgebel, Eric

Debate has been growing in developmental psychology over how much the cognitive development of children is like theory change in science. Useful debate on this topic requires a clear understanding of what it would be for a child to have a theory. I argue that existing accounts of theories within philosophy of science and developmental psychology either are less precise than is ideal for the task or cannot capture everyday theorizing of the sort that children, if they theorize, must do. I then propose an account of theories that ties theories and explanation very closely together, treating theories primarily as products of a drive to explain. I clarify some of the positions people have taken regarding the theory theory of development, and I conclude by proposing that psychologists interested in the ''theory theory'' look for patterns of affect and arousal in development that would accompany the existence of a drive to explain.

Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature

OpenAIRE

Jansen, Malte F.

2016-01-01

To understand climatic swings between glacial and interglacial climates we need to explain the observed fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which in turn are most likely driven by changes in the deep ocean circulation. This study presents a model for differences in the deep ocean circulation between glacial and interglacial climates consistent with both our physical understanding and various proxy observations. The results suggest that observed changes in ocean circulation and s...

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinkernell, Stefan; Beszteri, Bánk

2014-08-01

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate

Examining Urban Impervious Surface Distribution and Its Dynamic Change in Hangzhou Metropolis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longwei Li

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Analysis of urban distribution and its expansion using remote sensing data has received increasing attention in the past three decades, but little research has examined spatial patterns of urban distribution and expansion with buffer zones in different directions. This research selected Hangzhou metropolis as a case study to analyze spatial patterns and dynamic changes based on time-series urban impervious surface area (ISA datasets. ISA was developed from Landsat imagery between 1991 and 2014 using a hybrid approach consisting of linear spectral mixture analysis, decision tree classifiers, and post-processing. The spatial patterns of ISA distribution and its dynamic changes in eight directions—east, southeast, south, southwest, west, northwest, north, and northeast—at the temporal scale were analyzed with a buffer zone-based approach. This research indicated that ISA can be extracted from Landsat imagery with both producer and user accuracies of over 90%. ISA in Hangzhou metropolis increased from 146 km2 in 1991 to 868 km2 in 2014. Annual ISA growth rates were between 15.6 km2 and 48.8 km2 with the lowest growth rate in 1994–2000 and the highest growth rate in 2005–2010. Urban ISA increase before 2000 was mainly due to infilling within the urban landscape, and, after 2005, due to urban expansion in the urban-rural interfaces. Urban expansion in this study area has different characteristics in various directions that are influenced by topographic factors and urban development policies.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xue; Ge, Xuezhen; Chen, Linghong; Zhang, Linjing; Wang, Tao; Shixiang, Zong

2018-05-28

Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N - 51° N and 74° E - 134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N - 53° N and 74° E - 134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Plagiarism explainer for students

OpenAIRE

Barba, Lorena A.

2016-01-01

A slide deck to serve as an explainer of plagiarism in academic settings, with a personal viewpoint. For my students.Also on SpeakerDeck:https://speakerdeck.com/labarba/plagiarism-explainer-for-students(The slide viewer on SpeakerDeck is much nicer.)

Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak ( Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Deb, Jiban Chandra; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-09-01

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak ( Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Myocardial perfusion changes in patients irradiated for left-sided breast cancer and correlation with coronary artery distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lind, Pehr A.; Pagnanelli, Robert; Marks, Lawrence B.; Borges-Neto, Salvador; Hu, Caroline; Zhou, S.-M.; Light, Kim; Hardenbergh, Patricia H.

2003-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate postradiation regional heart perfusion changes with single photon emission tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging in 69 patients treated with tangential photon beams radiation therapy (RT) for left-sided breast cancer. To correlate SPECT changes with percent irradiated left ventricle (LV) volume and risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods and Materials: Rest SPECT of the LV was acquired pre-RT and at 6-month intervals post-RT. The extent of defects (%) with a severity > 1.5 standard deviations below the mean was quantitatively analyzed for the distributions of the left anterior descending (LAD) artery, left circumflex (LCX) artery, and right coronary artery (RCA) based on computer assisted polar map reconstruction (i.e., bull's-eye-view). Changes in perfusion were correlated with percent irradiated LV receiving > 25 Gy (range 0-32%). Data on patient- and treatment-related factors were collected prospectively (e.g., cardiac premorbidity, risk factors for CAD, chemotherapy, and hormonal treatment). Results: In the LAD distribution, there were increased perfusion defects at 6 months (median 11%; interquartile range 2-23) compared with baseline (median 5%; interquartile range 1-14) (p<0.001). There were no increases in perfusion defects in the LCX or RCA distributions. In multivariate analysis, the SPECT perfusion changes in the LAD distribution at 6 months were independently associated with percent irradiated LV (p<0.001), hormonal therapy (p=0.005), and pre-RT hypercholesterolemia (p=0.006). The SPECT defects in the LAD distribution at 12 and 18 months were not statistically different from those at 6 months. The perfusion defects in the LAD distribution were limited essentially to the regions of irradiated myocardium. Conclusion: Tangential photon beam RT in patients with left-sided breast cancer was associated with short-term SPECT defects in the vascular distribution corresponding to the radiation portals. Factors

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

Science.gov (United States)

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ripszam, M., E-mail: matyas.ripszam@chem.umu.se [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Gallampois, C.M.J. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Berglund, Å. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Larsson, H. [Umeå Marine Sciences Centre, Umeå University, Norrbyn, 905 71 Hörnefors (Sweden); Andersson, A. [Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Tysklind, M.; Haglund, P. [Department of Chemistry, Umea University, 901 87 Umeå (Sweden)

2015-06-01

Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15 °C and 4 mg DOC L{sup −1} and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18 °C and 6 mg DOC L{sup −1}, respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. - Highlights: • More contaminants remained in the ecosystem at higher organic carbon levels. • More contaminants were lost in the higher temperature treatments. • The combined effects are competitive with respect to contaminant cycling. • The individual properties of each contaminant determine their respective fate.

Effects of predicted climatic changes on distribution of organic contaminants in brackish water mesocosms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ripszam, M.; Gallampois, C.M.J.; Berglund, Å.; Larsson, H.; Andersson, A.; Tysklind, M.; Haglund, P.

2015-01-01

Predicted consequences of future climate change in the northern Baltic Sea include increases in sea surface temperatures and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) runoff. These changes are expected to alter environmental distribution of anthropogenic organic contaminants (OCs). To assess likely shifts in their distributions, outdoor mesocosms were employed to mimic pelagic ecosystems at two temperatures and two DOC concentrations, current: 15 °C and 4 mg DOC L −1 and, within ranges of predicted increases, 18 °C and 6 mg DOC L −1 , respectively. Selected organic contaminants were added to the mesocosms to monitor changes in their distribution induced by the treatments. OC partitioning to particulate matter and sedimentation were enhanced at the higher DOC concentration, at both temperatures, while higher losses and lower partitioning of OCs to DOC were observed at the higher temperature. No combined effects of higher temperature and DOC on partitioning were observed, possibly because of the balancing nature of these processes. Therefore, changes in OCs' fates may largely depend on whether they are most sensitive to temperature or DOC concentration rises. Bromoanilines, phenanthrene, biphenyl and naphthalene were sensitive to the rise in DOC concentration, whereas organophosphates, chlorobenzenes (PCBz) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were more sensitive to temperature. Mitotane and diflufenican were sensitive to both temperature and DOC concentration rises individually, but not in combination. - Highlights: • More contaminants remained in the ecosystem at higher organic carbon levels. • More contaminants were lost in the higher temperature treatments. • The combined effects are competitive with respect to contaminant cycling. • The individual properties of each contaminant determine their respective fate

Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Nogués-Bravo, David; Diniz-Filho, Alexandre F.

2008-01-01

debated without reaching consensus. Here, we test the proposition that European species richness of reptiles and amphibians is driven by climate changes in the Quaternary. We find that climate stability between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present day is a better predictor of species richness...

Spatially tuned normalization explains attention modulation variance within neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Amy M; Maunsell, John H R

2017-09-01

Spatial attention improves perception of attended parts of a scene, a behavioral enhancement accompanied by modulations of neuronal firing rates. These modulations vary in size across neurons in the same brain area. Models of normalization explain much of this variance in attention modulation with differences in tuned normalization across neurons (Lee J, Maunsell JHR. PLoS One 4: e4651, 2009; Ni AM, Ray S, Maunsell JHR. Neuron 73: 803-813, 2012). However, recent studies suggest that normalization tuning varies with spatial location both across and within neurons (Ruff DA, Alberts JJ, Cohen MR. J Neurophysiol 116: 1375-1386, 2016; Verhoef BE, Maunsell JHR. eLife 5: e17256, 2016). Here we show directly that attention modulation and normalization tuning do in fact covary within individual neurons, in addition to across neurons as previously demonstrated. We recorded the activity of isolated neurons in the middle temporal area of two rhesus monkeys as they performed a change-detection task that controlled the focus of spatial attention. Using the same two drifting Gabor stimuli and the same two receptive field locations for each neuron, we found that switching which stimulus was presented at which location affected both attention modulation and normalization in a correlated way within neurons. We present an equal-maximum-suppression spatially tuned normalization model that explains this covariance both across and within neurons: each stimulus generates equally strong suppression of its own excitatory drive, but its suppression of distant stimuli is typically less. This new model specifies how the tuned normalization associated with each stimulus location varies across space both within and across neurons, changing our understanding of the normalization mechanism and how attention modulations depend on this mechanism. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Tuned normalization studies have demonstrated that the variance in attention modulation size seen across neurons from the same cortical

Associations between initial change in physical activity level and subsequent change in regional body fat distributions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ezekwe, Kelechi A; Adegboye, Amanda R A; Gamborg, Michael

2013-01-01

examination, while waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were measured at both follow-ups. RESULTS: Among men, WC increased in the constant active group to a lesser extent than in the non-constant active group (3.4 vs. 4.1 cm; p = 0.03) concerning leisure time physical activities (LTPA......). A similar pattern was observed for both WC and HC in relation to occupational physical activities (OPA) (p = 0.02). Among women, the results went in the same direction for LTPA, whereas the associations with OPA were in the opposite direction (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: LTPA and OPA were associated......BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined which lifestyle factors relate to the development of fat distribution. Therefore, the identification of the determinants of changes in fat deposition is highly relevant. METHODS: The association between the change in physical activity (PA) and the subsequent...

Surface ozone in China: present-day distribution and long-term changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Xu, W.

2017-12-01

Reliable knowledge of spatio-temporal variations of surface ozone is highly needed to assess the impacts of ozone on human health, ecosystem and climate. Although regional distributions and trends of surface ozone in European and North American countries have been well characterized, little is known about the variability of surface ozone in many other countries, including China, where emissions of ozone precursors have been changing rapidly in recent decades. Here we present the first comprehensive description of present-day (2013-2017) distribution and long-term changes of surface ozone in mainland China. Recent ozone measurements from China's air quality monitoring network (AQMN) are analyzed to show present-day distributions of a few ozone exposure metrics for urban environment. Long-term measurements of ozone at six background sites, a rural site and an urban are used to study the trends of ozone in background, rural and urban air, respectively. The average levels of ozone at the AQMN sites (mainly urban) are close to those found at many European and North American sites. However, ozone at most of the sites shows very large diurnal and seasonal variations so that ozone nonattainment can occur in many cities, particularly those in the North China Plain (NCP), the south of Northeast China (NEC), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Sichuan Basin-Chongqing region (SCB). In all these regions, particularly in the NCP, the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentration can significantly exceed the national limit (75 ppb). High annual sum of ozone means over 35 ppb (SOMO35) exist mainly in the NCP, NEC and YRD, with regional averages over 4000 ppb·d. Surface ozone has significantly increased at Waliguan (a baseline site in western China) and Shangdianzi (a background site in the NCP), and decreased in winter and spring at Longfengshan (a background site in Northeast China). No clear trend can be derived from long-term measurements

Complexity explained

CERN Document Server

Erdi, Peter

2008-01-01

This book explains why complex systems research is important in understanding the structure, function and dynamics of complex natural and social phenomena. Readers will learn the basic concepts and methods of complex system research.

Wealth, wages and wedlock : Explaining the college gender gap reversal

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reijnders, Laurie

2018-01-01

We study the role of changes in the wage structure and expectations about marriage in explaining the college gender gap reversal. With strongly diminishing marginal utility of wealth and in the presence of a gender wage gap, single women have a greater incentive than single men to invest in

Detecting change in seabird distributions at sea in arctic and sub-arctic waters over six decades

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjerdrum, Carina; Wong, Sarah; Johansen, Kasper Lambert

predictive models to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence the distribution thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia), northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), dovekie (Alle alle), and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) in summer and autumn between Canada and Greenland. We used the PIROP data......In the western North Atlantic and eastern Arctic, data on the distribution and abundance of seabirds at sea have been collected by the Canadian Wildlife Service from two main survey programs using ships of opportunity. The first, PIROP (Programme intégré de recherches sur les oiseaux pélagiques...... to examine how the distribution of these four species has changed over the last six decades. We discuss the results in relation to ocean climate variability, but also the challenges that exist when comparisons span such long time periods, including monitoring programs with changing priorities, differences...

Concentration distribution of trace elements: from normal distribution to Levy flights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kubala-Kukus, A.; Banas, D.; Braziewicz, J.; Majewska, U.; Pajek, M.

2003-01-01

The paper discusses a nature of concentration distributions of trace elements in biomedical samples, which were measured by using the X-ray fluorescence techniques (XRF, TXRF). Our earlier observation, that the lognormal distribution well describes the measured concentration distribution is explained here on a more general ground. Particularly, the role of random multiplicative process, which models the concentration distributions of trace elements in biomedical samples, is discussed in detail. It is demonstrated that the lognormal distribution, appearing when the multiplicative process is driven by normal distribution, can be generalized to the so-called log-stable distribution. Such distribution describes the random multiplicative process, which is driven, instead of normal distribution, by more general stable distribution, being known as the Levy flights. The presented ideas are exemplified by the results of the study of trace element concentration distributions in selected biomedical samples, obtained by using the conventional (XRF) and (TXRF) X-ray fluorescence methods. Particularly, the first observation of log-stable concentration distribution of trace elements is reported and discussed here in detail

The wireless internet explained

CERN Document Server

Rhoton, John

2001-01-01

The Wireless Internet Explained covers the full spectrum of wireless technologies from a wide range of vendors, including initiatives by Microsoft and Compaq. The Wireless Internet Explained takes a practical look at wireless technology. Rhoton explains the concepts behind the physics, and provides an overview that clarifies the convoluted set of standards heaped together under the umbrella of wireless. It then expands on these technical foundations to give a panorama of the increasingly crowded landscape of wireless product offerings. When it comes to actual implementation the book gives abundant down-to-earth advice on topics ranging from the selection and deployment of mobile devices to the extremely sensitive subject of security.Written by an expert on Internet messaging, the author of Digital Press''s successful Programmer''s Guide to Internet Mail and X.400 and SMTP: Battle of the E-mail Protocols, The Wireless Internet Explained describes and evaluates the current state of the fast-growing and crucial...

The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart

2015-01-01

Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...

The effects of global change on the distribution, species richness and life history of European dragonflies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Kent

2016-01-01

traits such as taxonomy, habitat specificity, metabolic plasticity, and biogeographic traits such zoogeographical origin. In Paper I we describe how changes in species richness pattern across Europe correlate with range changes in different taxonomic and biogeographic groups of dragonflies. We found...... specialized species adapted to permanent running (perennial lotic) water habitats. We found that species reproducing in temporary water track climate changes better than species adapted to permanent water. In Paper III we explore the relationship between metabolic plasticity (expressed as the ability to shift...... with less metabolic plasticity. We conducted experimental ex-situ measurements of metabolic rates measured as respiration rates at 10°C and 20°C, respectively, of four Scandinavian dragonfly species. We used two species with a northern distribution, one with a southern distribution and one ubiquitous...

The influence of climate change on the global distribution and fate processes of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants.

Science.gov (United States)

Kallenborn, Roland; Halsall, Crispin; Dellong, Maud; Carlsson, Pernilla

2012-11-01

The effect of climate change on the global distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is of growing interest to both scientists and policy makers alike. The impact of warmer temperatures and the resulting changes to earth system processes on chemical fate are, however, unclear, although there are a growing number of studies that are beginning to examine these impacts and changes in a quantitative way. In this review, we examine broad areas where changes are occurring or are likely to occur with regard to the environmental cycling and fate of chemical contaminants. For this purpose we are examining scientific information from long-term monitoring data with particular emphasis on the Arctic, to show apparent changes in chemical patterns and behaviour. In addition, we examine evidence of changing chemical processes for a number of environmental compartments and indirect effects of climate change on contaminant emissions and behaviour. We also recommend areas of research to address knowledge gaps. In general, our findings indicate that the indirect consequences of climate change (i.e. shifts in agriculture, resource exploitation opportunities, etc.) will have a more marked impact on contaminants distribution and fate than direct climate change.

Understanding the Sampling Distribution and the Central Limit Theorem.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Charla P.

The sampling distribution is a common source of misuse and misunderstanding in the study of statistics. The sampling distribution, underlying distribution, and the Central Limit Theorem are all interconnected in defining and explaining the proper use of the sampling distribution of various statistics. The sampling distribution of a statistic is…

Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subhashni Taylor

Full Text Available The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.

Systolic blood pressure decline in very old individuals is explained by deteriorating health: Longitudinal changes from Umeå85+/GERDA.

Science.gov (United States)

Weidung, Bodil; Toots, Annika; Nordström, Peter; Carlberg, Bo; Gustafson, Yngve

2017-12-01

Declining systolic blood pressure (SBP) is common in very old age and is associated with adverse events, such as dementia. Knowledge of factors associated with SBP changes could explain the etiology of this decline in SBP. This study investigated longitudinal changes in socioeconomic factors, medical conditions, drug prescriptions, and assessments and their associations with SBP changes among very old followed individuals.The study was based on data from the Umeå85+/Gerontological Regional Database (GERDA) cohort study, which provided cross-sectional and longitudinal data on participants aged 85, 90, and ≥95 years from 2000 to 2015. Follow-up assessments were conducted after 5 years. The main outcome was a change in SBP. Factors associated with SBP changes were assessed using multivariate linear regression models.In the Umeå85+/GERDA study, 454 surviving individuals underwent follow-up assessment after 5 years. Of these, 297 had SBP measured at baseline and follow-up. The mean change ± standard deviation in SBP was -12 ± 25 mm Hg. SBP decline was associated independently with later investigation year (P = .009), higher baseline SBP (P < .001), baseline antidepressant prescription (P = .011), incident acute myocardial infarction during follow-up (P = .003), new diuretic prescription during follow-up (P = .044), and a decline in the Barthel Activities of Daily Living index at follow-up (P < .001).In conclusion, SBP declines among very old individuals. This decline seems to be associated with initial SBP level, investigation year, and health-related factors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Distributed Leadership in Organizational Change Processes: A Qualitative Study in Public Hospital Units

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Anne Mette; Jonasson, Charlotte; Ovesen, Maria

2015-01-01

This paper proposes that the emergence and boundaries of distributed leadership (DL) are developed in a dynamic interplay with planned as well as emergent organizational change. The empirical findings are based on a qualitative, longitudinal case study with interviews conducted at two different....../non-routine, various goals, and organizational planning affect a simultaneous widening or restriction of the local DL. In return, such local DL also leads to ongoing changes in the form of novel work routines for improved collaboration. Moreover, the findings show that restrictions of DL are in some cases considered...

Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Martin A. Spetich; Jacob S. Fraser

2018-01-01

Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are notwell represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts.We investigate how species biological...

A Data Flow Model to Solve the Data Distribution Changing Problem in Machine Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shang Bo-Wen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Continuous prediction is widely used in broad communities spreading from social to business and the machine learning method is an important method in this problem.When we use the machine learning method to predict a problem. We use the data in the training set to fit the model and estimate the distribution of data in the test set.But when we use machine learning to do the continuous prediction we get new data as time goes by and use the data to predict the future data, there may be a problem. As the size of the data set increasing over time, the distribution changes and there will be many garbage data in the training set.We should remove the garbage data as it reduces the accuracy of the prediction. The main contribution of this article is using the new data to detect the timeliness of historical data and remove the garbage data.We build a data flow model to describe how the data flow among the test set, training set, validation set and the garbage set and improve the accuracy of prediction. As the change of the data set, the best machine learning model will change.We design a hybrid voting algorithm to fit the data set better that uses seven machine learning models predicting the same problem and uses the validation set putting different weights on the learning models to give better model more weights. Experimental results show that, when the distribution of the data set changes over time, our time flow model can remove most of the garbage data and get a better result than the traditional method that adds all the data to the data set; our hybrid voting algorithm has a better prediction result than the average accuracy of other predict models

Projected distributions and diversity of flightless ground beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and their environmental correlates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyran M Staunton

Full Text Available With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group's primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World

Projected distributions and diversity of flightless ground beetles within the Australian Wet Tropics and their environmental correlates.

Science.gov (United States)

Staunton, Kyran M; Robson, Simon K A; Burwell, Chris J; Reside, April E; Williams, Stephen E

2014-01-01

With the impending threat of climate change, greater understanding of patterns of species distributions and richness and the environmental factors driving them are required for effective conservation efforts. Species distribution models enable us to not only estimate geographic extents of species and subsequent patterns of species richness, but also generate hypotheses regarding environmental factors determining these spatial patterns. Projected changes in climate can then be used to predict future patterns of species distributions and richness. We created distribution models for most of the flightless ground beetles (Carabidae) within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area of Australia, a major component of regionally endemic invertebrates. Forty-three species were modelled and the environmental correlates of these distributions and resultant patterns of species richness were examined. Flightless ground beetles generally inhabit upland areas characterised by stable, cool and wet environmental conditions. These distribution and richness patterns are best explained using the time-stability hypothesis as this group's primary habitat, upland rainforest, is considered to be the most stable regional habitat. Projected changes in distributions indicate that as upward shifts in distributions occur, species currently confined to lower and drier mountain ranges will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts than those restricted to the highest and wettest mountains. Distribution models under projected future climate change suggest that there will be reductions in range size, population size and species richness under all emission scenarios. Eighty-eight per cent of species modelled are predicted to decline in population size by over 80%, for the most severe emission scenario by the year 2080. These results suggest that flightless ground beetles are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change impacts so far investigated in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area. These

Hydrological changes impacts on annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins

Science.gov (United States)

Viola, F.; Caracciolo, D.; Feng, X.

2017-12-01

Runoff is expected to be modified in the next future by climate change as well as by land use change. Given its importance for water supply and ecosystem functioning, it is therefore imperative to develop adaptation strategies and new policies for regional water resources management and planning. To do so, the identification and attribution of natural flow regime shifts as a result of climate and land use changes are of crucial importance. In this context, the Budyko's curve has begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate and land use changes to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu's equation is proposed and applied to separate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the future annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins, such as those in Mediterranean climates. In particular, this framework improves a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins from annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration statistics, and from knowledge of the Fu's equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change has been taken into account through the variation of the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, consistent with general circulation models' outputs, while the Fu's equation parameter ω has been changed to represent land use change. The effects of the two factors of change (i.e., climate and land use) on the annual runoff pdf have been first independently and then jointly analyzed, by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and, based on likely scenarios, within the next 100 years. The results show that, for large basins, climate change is the dominant driver of the decline in annual runoff, while land use change is a secondary but important factor.

Epigenetics and obesity: a relationship waiting to be explained.

Science.gov (United States)

Symonds, Michael E; Budge, Helen; Frazier-Wood, Alexis C

2013-01-01

Obesity can have multifactorial causes that may change with development and are not simply attributable to one's genetic constitution. To date, expensive and laborious genome-wide association studies have only ascribed a small contribution of genetic variants to obesity. The emergence of the field of epigenetics now offers a new paradigm with which to study excess fat mass. Currently, however, there are no compelling epigenetic studies to explain the role of epigenetics in obesity, especially from a developmental perspective. It is clear that until there are advances in the understanding of the main mechanisms by which different fat types, i.e. brown, beige, and white, are established and how these differ between depots and species, population-based studies designed to determine specific aspects of epigenetics will be potentially limited. Obesity is a slowly evolving condition that is not simply explained by changes in the intake of one macronutrient. The latest advances in epigenetics, coupled with the establishment of relevant longitudinal models of obesity, which incorporate functionally relevant end points, may now permit the precise contribution of epigenetic modifications to excess fat mass to be effectively studied. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Availability, diversification and versatility explain human selection of introduced plants in Ecuadorian traditional medicine.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G Hart

Full Text Available Globally, a majority of people use plants as a primary source of healthcare and introduced plants are increasingly discussed as medicine. Protecting this resource for human health depends upon understanding which plants are used and how use patterns will change over time. The increasing use of introduced plants in local pharmacopoeia has been explained by their greater abundance or accessibility (availability hypothesis, their ability to cure medical conditions that are not treated by native plants (diversification hypothesis, or as a result of the introduced plants' having many different simultaneous roles (versatility hypothesis. In order to describe the role of introduced plants in Ecuador, and to test these three hypotheses, we asked if introduced plants are over-represented in the Ecuadorian pharmacopoeia, and if their use as medicine is best explained by the introduced plants' greater availability, different therapeutic applications, or greater number of use categories. Drawing on 44,585 plant-use entries, and the checklist of >17,000 species found in Ecuador, we used multi-model inference to test if more introduced plants are used as medicines in Ecuador than expected by chance, and examine the support for each of the three hypotheses above. We find nuanced support for all hypotheses. More introduced plants are utilized than would be expected by chance, which can be explained by geographic distribution, their strong association with cultivation, diversification (except with regard to introduced diseases, and therapeutic versatility, but not versatility of use categories. Introduced plants make a disproportionately high contribution to plant medicine in Ecuador. The strong association of cultivation with introduced medicinal plant use highlights the importance of the maintenance of human-mediated environments such as homegardens and agroforests for the provisioning of healthcare services.

Effect of 17 beta-oestradiol on growth curves and flow cytometric DNA distribution of two human breast carcinomas grown in nude mice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brünner, N; Spang-Thomsen, M; Vindeløv, L

1983-01-01

distribution could be demonstrated following the treatment. The results indicate that the oestradiol-induced cell kill could be explained to some extent by the induction of polyploid cells, which eventually die. Since the cell cycle changes monitored by FCM in the receptor-positive breast carcinoma appeared...

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible...... changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian...... Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa....

In Situ Transmission Electron Microscopy Observation of Nanostructural Changes in Phase-Change Memory

KAUST Repository

Meister, Stefan

2011-04-26

Phase-change memory (PCM) has been researched extensively as a promising alternative to flash memory. Important studies have focused on its scalability, switching speed, endurance, and new materials. Still, reliability issues and inconsistent switching in PCM devices motivate the need to further study its fundamental properties. However, many investigations treat PCM cells as black boxes; nanostructural changes inside the devices remain hidden. Here, using in situ transmission electron microscopy, we observe real-time nanostructural changes in lateral Ge2Sb2Te5 (GST) PCM bridges during switching. We find that PCM devices with similar resistances can exhibit distinct threshold switching behaviors due to the different initial distribution of nanocrystalline and amorphous domains, explaining variability of switching behaviors of PCM cells in the literature. Our findings show a direct correlation between nanostructure and switching behavior, providing important guidelines in the design and operation of future PCM devices with improved endurance and lower variability. © 2011 American Chemical Society.

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK).

Science.gov (United States)

Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species' geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies.

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)

Science.gov (United States)

Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species’ geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies. PMID:29401494

Plate-wide stress relaxation explains European Palaeocene basin inversions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, S.B.; Thomsen, Erik; Hansen, D.L.

2005-01-01

of the in-plane tectonic stress. The onset of relaxation inversions was plate-wide and simultaneous, and may have been triggered by stress changes caused by elevation of the North Atlantic lithosphere by the Iceland plume or the drop in NS convergence rate between Africa and Europe.......During Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic times many Paleozoic and Mesozoic rifts and basin structures in the interior of the European continent underwent several phases of inversion. The main phases occurred during the Late Cretaceous and Middle Paleocene, and have been explained by pulses...... Paleocene phase was characterized by domal uplift of a wider area with only mild fault movements, and formation of more distal and shallow marginal troughs. A simple flexural model explains how domal, secondary inversion follows inevitably from primary, convergence related inversion upon relaxation...

Calculation of life distributions, in particular Weibull distributions, from operational observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rauhut, J.

1982-01-01

Established methods are presented by which life distributions of machine elements can be determined on the basis of laboratory experiments and operational observations. Practical observations are given special attention as the results estimated on the basis of conventional have not been accurate enough. As an introduction, the stochastic life concept, the general method of determining life distributions, various sampling methods, and the Weibull distribution are explained. Further, possible life testing schedules and maximum-likelihood estimates are discussed for the complete sample case and for censered sampling without replacement in laboratory experiments. Finally, censered sampling with replacement in laboratory experiments is discussed; it is shown how suitable parameter estimates can be obtained for given life distributions by means of the maximum-likelihood method. (orig./RW) [de

Public Agility and Change in a Network Environment

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Tom van Engers

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Preparing for change is increasingly core business for governmental organizations. The networked society and the increasing connectedness of governmental organizations have as much impact on the complexity of the change process as the complexities of the corpus of law. Change is not only driven by changes in the law; changes in the organization’s environment often create a need to redesign business processes, reallocate roles and responsibilities, and reorder tasks. Moreover, preparations for change are not limited to the internal processes and systems of these organizations. Propagation of changes to network partners and redesign of network arrangements can be an enormous challenge. In the AGILE project, we develop a design method, distributed service architecture, and supporting tools that enable organizations - administrative and otherwise - to orchestrate their law-based services in a networked environment. This paper explains the Agile approach and describes some of its key principles.

On the change points of mean residual life and failure rate functions for some generalized gamma type distributions

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Parsa M.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Mean residual life and failure rate functions are ubiquitously employed in reliability analysis. The term of useful period of lifetime distributions of bathtub-shaped failure rate functions is referred to the flat rigion of this function and has attracted authors and researchers in reliability, actuary, and survival analysis. In recent years, considering the change points of mean residual life and failure rate functions has been extensively utelized in determining the optimum burn-in time. In this paper we investigate the difference between the change points of failure rate and mean residual life functions of some generalized gamma type distributions due to the capability of these distributions in modeling various bathtub-shaped failure rate functions.

Distribution, abundance and feeding ecology of baleen whales in Icelandic waters: have recent environmental changes had an effect?

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Gísli Arnór Víkingsson

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The location of Iceland at the junction of submarine ridges in the North-East Atlantic where warm and cold water masses meet south of the Arctic Circle contributes to high productivity of the waters around the island. During the last two decades, substantial increases in sea temperature and salinity have been reported. Concurrently, pronounced changes have occurred in the distribution of several fish species and euphausiids. The distribution and abundance of cetaceans in the Central and Eastern North Atlantic have been monitored regularly since 1987. Significant changes in the distribution and abundance of several cetacean species have occurred in this time period. The abundance of Central North Atlantic humpback and fin whales has increased from 1,800 to 11,600 and 15,200 to 20,600, respectively, in the period 1987-2007. In contrast, the abundance of minke whales on the Icelandic continental shelf decreased from around 44,000 in 2001 to 20,000 in 2007 and 10,000 in 2009. The increase in fin whale abundance was accompanied by expansion of distribution into the deep waters of the Irminger Sea. The distribution of the endangered blue whale has shifted northwards in this period. The habitat selection of fin whales was analyzed with respect to physical variables (temperature, depth, salinity using a generalized additive model, and the results suggest that abundance was influenced by an interaction between the physical variables depth and distance to the 2000m isobaths, but also by sea surface temperature and sea surface height, However, environmental data generally act as proxies of other variables, to which the whales respond directly. Overall, these changes in cetacean distribution and abundance may be a functional feeding response of the cetacean species to physical and biological changes in the marine environment, including decreased abundance of euphausiids, a northward shift in summer distribution of capelin and a crash in the abundance of

Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica in the Western Ghats, India

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Malay Pramanik

Full Text Available In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%, isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%, and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7% would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.50% (19318.7 sq. km of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of Climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Objective and Significance: Primary objective of this study is to identify the potential distribution of medicinally and

Making the user visible: analysing irrigation practices and farmers’ logic to explain actual drip irrigation performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benouniche, M.; Kuper, M.; Hammani, A.; Boesveld, H.

2014-01-01

The actual performance of drip irrigation (irrigation efficiency, distribution uniformity) in the field is often quite different from that obtained in experimental stations. We developed an approach to explain the actual irrigation performance of drip irrigation systems by linking measured

Morphological change to birds over 120 years is not explained by thermal adaptation to climate change.

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Volker Salewski

Full Text Available Changes in morphology have been postulated as one of the responses of animals to global warming, with increasing ambient temperatures leading to decreasing body size. However, the results of previous studies are inconsistent. Problems related to the analyses of trends in body size may be related to the short-term nature of data sets, to the selection of surrogates for body size, to the appropriate models for data analyses, and to the interpretation as morphology may change in response to ecological drivers other than climate and irrespective of size. Using generalized additive models, we analysed trends in three morphological traits of 4529 specimens of eleven bird species collected between 1889 and 2010 in southern Germany and adjacent areas. Changes and trends in morphology over time were not consistent when all species and traits were considered. Six of the eleven species displayed a significant association of tarsus length with time but the direction of the association varied. Wing length decreased in the majority of species but there were few significant trends in wing pointedness. Few of the traits were significantly associated with mean ambient temperatures. We argue that although there are significant changes in morphology over time there is no consistent trend for decreasing body size and therefore no support for the hypothesis of decreasing body size because of climate change. Non-consistent trends of change in surrogates for size within species indicate that fluctuations are influenced by factors other than temperature, and that not all surrogates may represent size appropriately. Future analyses should carefully select measures of body size and consider alternative hypotheses for change.

THE EFFECTS OF VIEWING ANGLE ON THE MASS DISTRIBUTION OF EXOPLANETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, S.; Jenkins, J. S.

2012-01-01

We present a mathematical method to statistically decouple the effects of unknown inclination angles on the mass distribution of exoplanets that have been discovered using radial-velocity (RV) techniques. The method is based on the distribution of the product of two random variables. Thus, if one assumes a true mass distribution, the method makes it possible to recover the observed distribution. We compare our prediction with available RV data. Assuming that the true mass function is described by a power law, the minimum mass function that we recover proves a good fit to the observed distribution at both mass ends. In particular, it provides an alternative explanation for the observed low-mass decline, usually explained as sample incompleteness. In addition, the peak observed near the low-mass end arises naturally in the predicted distribution as a consequence of imposing a low-mass cutoff in the true distribution. If the low-mass bins below 0.02 M J are complete, then the mass distribution in this regime is heavily affected by the small fraction of lowly inclined interlopers that are actually more massive companions. Finally, we also present evidence that the exoplanet mass distribution changes form toward low mass, implying that a single power law may not adequately describe the sample population.

Biotic and abiotic controls on the distribution of tropical forest aboveground biomass

Science.gov (United States)

Saatchi, S. S.; Schimel, D.; Keller, M. M.; Chambers, J. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Duffy, P.; Yu, Y.; Robinson, C. M.; Chowdhury, D.; Yang, Y.

2013-12-01

AUTHOR: Sassan Saatchi1,2, Yan Yang2, Diya Chowdhury2, Yifan Yu2, Chelsea Robinson2, David Schimel1, Paul Duffy3, Michael Keller4, Ralph Dubayah5, Jeffery Chambers6 1. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA USA 2. Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA 3. Neptune and Company, Inc. Denver, CO, USA 4. International Institute of Tropical Forestry & International Programs, USDA Forest Service, Campinas, Brazil 5. Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA 6. Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA ABSTRACT BODY: In recent years, climate change policies and scientific research created a widespread interest in quantify the carbon stock and changes of global tropical forests extending from forest patches to national and regional scales. Using a combination of inventory data from field plots and forest structure from spaceborne Lidar data, we examine the main controls on the distribution of tropical forest biomass. Here, we concentrate on environmental and landscape variables (precipitation, temperature, topography, and soil), and biotic variables such as functional traits (density of large trees, and wood specific gravity). The analysis is performed using global bioclimatic variables for precipitation and temperature, SRTM data for topographical variables (elevation and ruggedness), and global harmonized soil data for soil type and texture. For biotic variables, we use the GLAS Lidar data to quantify the distribution of large trees, a combined field and remote sensing data for distribution of tree wood specific gravity. The results show that climate variables such as precipitation of dry season can explain the heterogeneity of forest biomass over the landscape but cannot predict the biomass variability significantly and particularly for high biomass forests. Topography such as elevation and ruggedness along with temperature can

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.

2011-12-01

Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision

Modeling of oxygen transport and cellular energetics explains observations on in vivo cardiac energy metabolism.

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Daniel A Beard

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Observations on the relationship between cardiac work rate and the levels of energy metabolites adenosine triphosphate (ATP, adenosine diphosphate (ADP, and phosphocreatine (CrP have not been satisfactorily explained by theoretical models of cardiac energy metabolism. Specifically, the in vivo stability of ATP, ADP, and CrP levels in response to changes in work and respiratory rate has eluded explanation. Here a previously developed model of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation, which was developed based on data obtained from isolated cardiac mitochondria, is integrated with a spatially distributed model of oxygen transport in the myocardium to analyze data obtained from several laboratories over the past two decades. The model includes the components of the respiratory chain, the F0F1-ATPase, adenine nucleotide translocase, and the mitochondrial phosphate transporter at the mitochondrial level; adenylate kinase, creatine kinase, and ATP consumption in the cytoplasm; and oxygen transport between capillaries, interstitial fluid, and cardiomyocytes. The integrated model is able to reproduce experimental observations on ATP, ADP, CrP, and inorganic phosphate levels in canine hearts over a range of workload and during coronary hypoperfusion and predicts that cytoplasmic inorganic phosphate level is a key regulator of the rate of mitochondrial respiration at workloads for which the rate of cardiac oxygen consumption is less than or equal to approximately 12 mumol per minute per gram of tissue. At work rates corresponding to oxygen consumption higher than 12 mumol min(-1 g(-1, model predictions deviate from the experimental data, indicating that at high work rates, additional regulatory mechanisms that are not currently incorporated into the model may be important. Nevertheless, the integrated model explains metabolite levels observed at low to moderate workloads and the changes in metabolite levels and tissue oxygenation observed during graded

Automated local bright feature image analysis of nuclear protein distribution identifies changes in tissue phenotype

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knowles, David; Sudar, Damir; Bator, Carol; Bissell, Mina

2006-01-01

The organization of nuclear proteins is linked to cell and tissue phenotypes. When cells arrest proliferation, undergo apoptosis, or differentiate, the distribution of nuclear proteins changes. Conversely, forced alteration of the distribution of nuclear proteins modifies cell phenotype. Immunostaining and fluorescence microscopy have been critical for such findings. However, there is an increasing need for quantitative analysis of nuclear protein distribution to decipher epigenetic relationships between nuclear structure and cell phenotype, and to unravel the mechanisms linking nuclear structure and function. We have developed imaging methods to quantify the distribution of fluorescently-stained nuclear protein NuMA in different mammary phenotypes obtained using three-dimensional cell culture. Automated image segmentation of DAPI-stained nuclei was generated to isolate thousands of nuclei from three-dimensional confocal images. Prominent features of fluorescently-stained NuMA were detected using a novel local bright feature analysis technique, and their normalized spatial density calculated as a function of the distance from the nuclear perimeter to its center. The results revealed marked changes in the distribution of the density of NuMA bright features as non-neoplastic cells underwent phenotypically normal acinar morphogenesis. In contrast, we did not detect any reorganization of NuMA during the formation of tumor nodules by malignant cells. Importantly, the analysis also discriminated proliferating non-neoplastic cells from proliferating malignant cells, suggesting that these imaging methods are capable of identifying alterations linked not only to the proliferation status but also to the malignant character of cells. We believe that this quantitative analysis will have additional applications for classifying normal and pathological tissues

Evidence-Based Identification of Key Beliefs Explaining Infant Male Circumcision Motivation Among Expectant Parents in Zimbabwe: Targets for Behavior Change Messaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Montaño, Daniel E; Tshimanga, Mufuta; Hamilton, Deven T; Gorn, Gerald; Kasprzyk, Danuta

2018-02-01

Slow adult male circumcision uptake is one factor leading some to recommend increased priority for infant male circumcision (IMC) in sub-Saharan African countries. This research, guided by the integrated behavioral model (IBM), was carried out to identify key beliefs that best explain Zimbabwean parents' motivation to have their infant sons circumcised. A quantitative survey, designed from qualitative elicitation study results, was administered to independent representative samples of 800 expectant mothers and 795 expectant fathers in two urban and two rural areas in Zimbabwe. Multiple regression analyses found IMC motivation among fathers was explained by instrumental attitude, descriptive norm and self-efficacy; while motivation among mothers was explained by instrumental attitude, injunctive norm, descriptive norm, self-efficacy, and perceived control. Regression analyses of beliefs underlying IBM constructs found some overlap but many differences in key beliefs explaining IMC motivation among mothers and fathers. We found differences in key beliefs among urban and rural parents. Urban fathers' IMC motivation was explained best by behavioral beliefs, while rural fathers' motivation was explained by both behavioral and efficacy beliefs. Urban mothers' IMC motivation was explained primarily by behavioral and normative beliefs, while rural mothers' motivation was explained mostly by behavioral beliefs. The key beliefs we identified should serve as targets for developing messages to improve demand and maximize parent uptake as IMC programs are rolled out. These targets need to be different among urban and rural expectant mothers and fathers.

Headache under simulated microgravity is related to endocrine, fluid distribution, and tight junction changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Feuerecker, Matthias; van Oosterhout, Willebrordus P J; Feuerecker, Benedikt; Matzel, Sandra; Schelling, Gustav; Rehm, Markus; Vein, Alla A; Choukèr, Alexander

2016-05-01

Head-down-tilted bed rest (HDTBR) induces headaches similar to headaches during space flights. The objective of this investigation was to study hematological, endocrinological, fluid changes and tight junctions in HDTBR-induced headaches as a proxy for space headache. The randomized crossover HDTBR design by the European Space Agency included 12 healthy, nonheadache male subjects. Before, during, and after confined HDTBR periods, epinephrine (urine), cortisol (saliva), hematological, endothelium markers, and fluid distribution parameters were measured. Headaches were assessed with a validated headache questionnaire. Compared with baseline, HDTBR in all subjects was associated with higher hematocrit, hemoglobin, and epinephrine levels, higher erythrocyte counts, and lower relative plasma volumes (all P zonulin was elevated (vs headache-free subjects in HDTBR days 1, 3, 5; P < 0.05). HDTBR induces hemoconcentration and fluid redistribution in all subjects. During headache episodes, endocrinological changes, fluid distribution, and tight junctions were more pronounced, suggesting an additional role in headache pathophysiology.

Can past gamma-ray bursts explain both INTEGRAL and ATIC/PAMELA/Fermi anomalies simultaneously?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvez, Antoine; Kusenko, Alexander

2010-01-01

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been invoked to explain both the 511 keV emission from the Galactic bulge and the high-energy positron excess inferred from the ATIC, PAMELA, and Fermi data. While independent explanations can be responsible for these phenomena, we explore the possibility of their common GRB-related origin by modeling the GRB distribution and estimating the rates. For an expected Milky Way long GRB rate, neither of the two signals is generic; the local excess requires a 2% coincidence while the signal from the Galactic center requires a 20% coincidence with respect to the timing of the latest GRB. The simultaneous explanation requires a 0.4% coincidence. Considering the large number of statistical 'trials' created by multiple searches for new physics, the coincidences of a few percent cannot be dismissed as unlikely. Alternatively, both phenomena can be explained by GRB if the Galactic rate is higher than expected. We also show that a similar result is difficult to obtain assuming a simplified short GRB distribution.

Laminar Distribution of the Pathological Changes in Sporadic and Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease

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R. A. Armstrong

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The laminar distributions of the pathological changes in the cerebral cortex were compared in the prion diseases sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD and variant CJD (vCJD. First, in some cortical regions, the vacuolation (“spongiform change” was more generally distributed across the cortex in sCJD. Second, there was greater neuronal loss in the upper cortex in vCJD and in the lower cortex in sCJD. Third, the “diffuse” and “florid” prion protein (PrPsc deposits were more frequently distributed in the upper cortex in vCJD and the “synaptic” deposits in the lower cortex in sCJD. Fourth, there was a significant gliosis mainly affecting the lower cortex of both disorders. The data suggest that the pattern of cortical degeneration is different in sCJD and vCJD which may reflect differences in aetiology and the subsequent spread of prion pathology within the brain.

Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Miller, Susanne; Divoky, George J.

2017-01-01

Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

Addressing Neuroplastic Changes in Distributed Areas of the Nervous System Associated With Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Pelletier, René; Higgins, Johanne; Bourbonnais, Daniel

2015-11-01

Present interventions utilized in musculoskeletal rehabilitation are guided, in large part, by a biomedical model where peripheral structural injury is believed to be the sole driver of the disorder. There are, however, neurophysiological changes across different areas of the peripheral and central nervous systems, including peripheral receptors, dorsal horn of the spinal cord, brain stem, sensorimotor cortical areas, and the mesolimbic and prefrontal areas associated with chronic musculoskeletal disorders, including chronic low back pain, osteoarthritis, and tendon injuries. These neurophysiological changes appear not only to be a consequence of peripheral structural injury but also to play a part in the pathophysiology of chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Neurophysiological changes are consistent with a biopsychosocial formulation reflecting the underlying mechanisms associated with sensory and motor findings, psychological traits, and perceptual changes associated with chronic musculoskeletal conditions. These changes, therefore, have important implications in the clinical manifestation, pathophysiology, and treatment of chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Musculoskeletal rehabilitation professionals have at their disposal tools to address these neuroplastic changes, including top-down cognitive-based interventions (eg, education, cognitive-behavioral therapy, mindfulness meditation, motor imagery) and bottom-up physical interventions (eg, motor learning, peripheral sensory stimulation, manual therapy) that induce neuroplastic changes across distributed areas of the nervous system and affect outcomes in patients with chronic musculoskeletal disorders. Furthermore, novel approaches such as the use of transcranial direct current stimulation and repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation may be utilized to help renormalize neurological function. Comprehensive treatment addressing peripheral structural injury as well as neurophysiological changes occurring across

Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

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William B Monahan

Full Text Available Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA. Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2 show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change

Fast neutron-induced changes in net impurity concentration of high-resistivity silicon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsveybak, I.; Bugg, W.; Harvey, J.A.; Walter, J.

1992-01-01

Resistivity changes produced by 1 MeV neutron irradiation at room temperature have been measured in float-zone grown n and p-type silicon with initial resistivities ranging from 1.8 to 100 kΩcm. Observed changes are discussed in terms of net electrically active impurity concentration. A model is presented which postulates escape of Si self-interstitials and vacancies from damage clusters and their subsequent interaction with impurities and other pre-existing defects in the lattice. These interactions lead to transfer of B and P from electrically active substitutional configurations into electrically inactive positions (B i , Pi i , and E-center), resulting in changes of net electrically active impurity concentration. The changes in spatial distribution of resistivity are discussed, and the experimental data are fit by theoretical curves. Differences in the behavior of n-type and p-type material are explained on the basis of a faster removal of substitutional P and a more nonuniform spatial distribution of the original P concentration

Knowledge coordination in distributed software management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars

2012-01-01

Software organizations are increasingly relying on cross-organizational and cross-border collaboration, requiring effective coordination of distributed knowledge. However, such coordination is challenging due to spatial separation, diverging communities-of-practice, and unevenly distributed...... communication breakdowns on recordings of their combined teleconferencing and real-time collaborative modeling. As a result, we offer theoretical propositions that explain how distributed software managers can deal with communication breakdowns and effectively coordinate knowledge through multimodal virtual...

Ectomycorrhizal host specificity in a changing world: can legacy effects explain anomalous current associations?

Science.gov (United States)

Lofgren, Lotus; Nguyen, Nhu H; Kennedy, Peter G

2018-02-07

Despite the importance of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi in forest ecosystems, knowledge about the ecological and co-evolutionary mechanisms underlying ECM host associations remains limited. Using a widely distributed group of ECM fungi known to form tight associations with trees in the family Pinaceae, we characterized host specificity among three unique Suillus-host species pairs using a combination of field root tip sampling and experimental bioassays. We demonstrate that the ECM fungus S. subaureus can successfully colonize Quercus hosts in both field and glasshouse settings, making this species unique in an otherwise Pinaceae-specific clade. Importantly, however, we found that the colonization of Quercus by S. subaureus required co-planting with a Pinaceae host. While our experimental results indicate that gymnosperms are required for the establishment of new S. subaureus colonies, Pineaceae hosts are locally absent at both our field sites. Given the historical presence of Pineaceae hosts before human alteration, it appears the current S. subaureus-Quercus associations represent carryover from past host presence. Collectively, our results suggest that patterns of ECM specificity should be viewed not only in light of current forest community composition, but also as a legacy effect of host community change over time. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

The human cerebral cortex is neither one nor many: Neuronal distribution reveals two quantitatively different zones in the grey matter, three in the white matter, and explains local variations in cortical folding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro F. M. Ribeiro

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The human prefrontal cortex has been considered different in several aspects and relatively enlarged compared to the rest of the cortical areas. Here we determine whether the white and gray matter of the prefrontal portion of the human cerebral cortex have similar or different cellular compositions relative to the rest of the cortical regions by applying the Isotropic Fractionator to analyze the distribution of neurons along the entire anteroposterior axis of the cortex, and its relationship with the degree of gyrification, number of neurons under the cortical surface, and other parameters. The prefrontal region shares with the remainder of the cerebral cortex (except for occipital cortex the same relationship between cortical volume and number of neurons. In contrast, both occipital and prefrontal areas vary from other cortical areas in their connectivity through the white matter, with a systematic reduction of cortical connectivity through the white matter and an increase of the mean axon caliber along the anteroposterior axis. These two parameters explain local differences in the distribution of neurons underneath the cortical surface. We also show that local variations in cortical folding are neither a function of local numbers of neurons nor of cortical thickness, but correlate with properties of the white matter, and are best explained by the folding of the white matter surface. Our results suggest that the human cerebral cortex is divided in two zones (occipital and non-occipital that differ in how neurons distributed across their grey matter volume and in three zones (prefrontal, occipital, and non-occipital that differ in how neurons are connected through the white matter. Thus, the human prefrontal cortex has the largest fraction of neuronal connectivity through the white matter and the smallest average axonal caliber in the white matter within the cortex, although its neuronal composition fits the pattern found for other, non

[Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yin Bo; Gao, Chen Hong; Qin, Hao

2018-04-01

Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.

Distribution law of temperature changes during methane adsorption and desorption in coal using infrared thermography technology

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong; Chen, Hao; An, Jiangfei; Zhou, Dong; Feng, Zengchao

2018-05-01

Gas adsorption and desorption is a thermodynamic process that takes place within coal as temperature changes and that is related to methane (CH4) storage. As infrared thermographic technology has been applied in this context to measure surface temperature changes, the aim of this research was to further elucidate the distribution law underlying this process as well as the thermal effects induced by heat adsorption and desorption in coal. Specimens of two different coal ranks were used in this study, and the surface temperature changes seen in the latter were detected. A contour line map was then drawn on the basis of initial results enabling a distribution law of temperature changes for samples. The results show that different regions of coal sample surfaces exhibit different heating rates during the adsorption process, but they all depends on gas storage capacity to a certain extent. It proposes a correlation coefficient that expresses the relationship between temperature change and gas adsorption capacity that could also be used to evaluate the feasibility of coalbed CH4 extraction in the field. And finally, this study is deduced a method to reveal the actual adsorption capacity of coal or CH4 reservoirs in in situ coal seams.

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia area, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Zhenhua; Zhou, Surong; Yu, Wendi; Yu, Huiliang; Yang, Jingyuan; Tian, Yanhong; Zhao, Mian; Wu, Hua

2015-02-01

Understanding the effects of climate change on primate ranging patterns is crucial for conservation planning. Rhinopithecus roxellana is an endangered primate species distributed in mountainous forests at the elevation of 1500-3500 m a.s.l. in China. Our study site, the Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, represents the eastern-most distribution of this species. This area has experienced significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming and logging, and climate change. To estimate how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect the presumed future distribution of this species, we examined eco-geographic factors including bioclimate, habitat (vegetation type, landcover, etc.), topography, and human impact (human population, gross domestic product, etc.), and provide suggestions for management and conservation. We used a maximum entropy approach to predict the location and distribution of habitats suitable for R. roxellana in the present, 2020, 2050, and 2080 based on 33 environmental parameters, three general circulation models, three emissions scenarios, and two dispersal hypotheses. According to the ensemble modeling, we found range reductions of almost 30% by 2020, 70% by 2050, and over 80% by 2080. Although no obvious differences were found in distribution change based on full and zero dispersal assumptions, our results revealed range reductions in response to elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients, with the monkeys forced to migrate to higher elevations over time. Bioclimte factors, such as temperature, precipitation, evapo-transpiration, and aridity condition, were dominant contributors to range shifting. As habitat loss due to human influence and climate change is likely to be even more severe in the future, we considered three conservation hot-spots in the Shennongjia area and recommended: (i) securing existing reserves and establishing new reserves, (ii) re-designing management systems to

Transition in the waiting-time distribution of price-change events in a global socioeconomic system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Guannan; McDonald, Mark; Fenn, Dan; Williams, Stacy; Johnson, Nicholas; Johnson, Neil F.

2013-12-01

The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogeneous temporal processes-in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system-is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the deviations between the waiting-time distribution and the distribution generated by a random process may help unravel the feedback mechanisms that drive the underlying dynamics. We analyze the waiting-time distributions of high-frequency foreign exchange data for the best executable bid-ask prices across all major currencies. We find that the lognormal distribution yields a good overall fit for the waiting-time distribution between currency rate changes if both short and long waiting times are included. If we restrict our study to long waiting times, each currency pair’s distribution is consistent with a power-law tail with exponent near to 3.5. However, for short waiting times, the overall distribution resembles one generated by an archetypal complex systems model in which boundedly rational agents compete for limited resources. Our findings suggest that a gradual transition arises in trading behavior between a fast regime in which traders act in a boundedly rational way and a slower one in which traders’ decisions are driven by generic feedback mechanisms across multiple timescales and hence produce similar power-law tails irrespective of currency type.

Changes of Vegetation Distribution in the East Dongting Lake After the Operation of the Three Gorges Dam, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia-Yu Hu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Water regime is regarded as the primary factor influencing the vegetation distribution in natural wetland ecosystems. However, the effect of water regime change induced by large-scale hydraulic engineering on vegetation distribution is still unclear. In this study, multi-temporal TM/ETM+/OLI images and hydrological data from 1995 to 2015 were used to elucidate how the change in water regime influenced the vegetation distribution in the East Dongting Lake (EDTL, especially after the operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD in 2003. Using unsupervised and supervised classification methods, three types of land cover were identified in the study area: Water and Mudflat, Grass, and Reed and Forest. Results showed that the total vegetation area in EDTL increased by approximately 78 km2 during 1995–2015. The areas of Reed and Forest and Grass exhibited a contrasting trend, dramatic increase in Reed and Forest but sharp decrease in Grass, particularly after the operation of TGD. The lowest distribution elevations of Grass and Reed and Forest decreased by 0.61 and 0.52 m, respectively. As a result of water level variation, submergence duration increased at 20–21 m and 28 m elevations (1–13 days, but significantly decreased at 22–27 m and 29–30 m elevations (-3 to -31 days. The submergence duration of Grass and Reed and Forest was 246 and 177 days, respectively. This study indicated that wetland vegetation pattern significantly changed after the operation of TGD, mainly as a result of changes in submergence condition. Submergence duration might be an effective indicator to predict the shift of vegetation distribution in EDTL, and which could provide scientific guidance for vegetation restoration and wetland management in this lake.

Spatial and temporal changes in invertebrate assemblage structure from the entrance to deep-cave zone of a temperate marble cave

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benjamin W. Tobin

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Seasonality in surface weather results in seasonal temperature and humidity changes in caves. Ecological and physiological differences among trogloxenes, troglophiles, and troglobionts result in species-dependent responses to this variability. To investigate these responses, we conducted five biological inventories in a marble cave in the Sierra Nevada Range, California, USA between May and December 2010. The cave was divided into six quadrats and temperature was continuously logged in each (humidity was logged at the entrance and in the deep cave. With increasing distance from the entrance, temperature changes were increasingly attenuated and lagged relative to surface temperature. Linear regressions were created to determine the relationship between measured environmental variables and diversity for cavernicoles (troglobionts and troglophiles and trogloxenes cave– wide and in the transition zone. Diversity for cavernicoles and trogloxenes peaked in the entrance and deep cave zones, respectively. Quadrat, date, 2-week antecedent temperature average, 2-week antecedent temperature range, and trogloxene abundance explained 76% of cavernicole diversity variability. Quadrat explained 55% of trogloxene diversity variability. In the transition zone, trogloxene abundance explained 26% of cavernicole variability and 2-week antecedent temperature and 2-week antecedent temperature range explained 40% of trogloxene variability. In the transition zone, trogloxene diversity was inversely related to 2-week antecedent temperature average and 2-week antecedent temperature range, suggesting that species were moving into the transition zone when temperature was most stable. In a CCA of cavernicoles distribution data and environmental variables, 35% of variation in species-specific distributions was attributable to quadrat, and non-significant percentages were explained by date and environmental variables. Differences in assemblage structure among quadrats were

A geometric theory for Lévy distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eliazar, Iddo

2014-01-01

Lévy distributions are of prime importance in the physical sciences, and their universal emergence is commonly explained by the Generalized Central Limit Theorem (CLT). However, the Generalized CLT is a geometry-less probabilistic result, whereas physical processes usually take place in an embedding space whose spatial geometry is often of substantial significance. In this paper we introduce a model of random effects in random environments which, on the one hand, retains the underlying probabilistic structure of the Generalized CLT and, on the other hand, adds a general and versatile underlying geometric structure. Based on this model we obtain geometry-based counterparts of the Generalized CLT, thus establishing a geometric theory for Lévy distributions. The theory explains the universal emergence of Lévy distributions in physical settings which are well beyond the realm of the Generalized CLT

A geometric theory for Lévy distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Eliazar, Iddo

2014-08-01

Lévy distributions are of prime importance in the physical sciences, and their universal emergence is commonly explained by the Generalized Central Limit Theorem (CLT). However, the Generalized CLT is a geometry-less probabilistic result, whereas physical processes usually take place in an embedding space whose spatial geometry is often of substantial significance. In this paper we introduce a model of random effects in random environments which, on the one hand, retains the underlying probabilistic structure of the Generalized CLT and, on the other hand, adds a general and versatile underlying geometric structure. Based on this model we obtain geometry-based counterparts of the Generalized CLT, thus establishing a geometric theory for Lévy distributions. The theory explains the universal emergence of Lévy distributions in physical settings which are well beyond the realm of the Generalized CLT.

An Applet-based Anonymous Distributed Computing System.

Science.gov (United States)

Finkel, David; Wills, Craig E.; Ciaraldi, Michael J.; Amorin, Kevin; Covati, Adam; Lee, Michael

2001-01-01

Defines anonymous distributed computing systems and focuses on the specifics of a Java, applet-based approach for large-scale, anonymous, distributed computing on the Internet. Explains the possibility of a large number of computers participating in a single computation and describes a test of the functionality of the system. (Author/LRW)

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.; Fedotova, E. V.

2018-05-01

An assessment of the overall impact of the observed and expected climatic changes on energy production, distribution, and consumption in Russia is presented. Climate model results of various complexity and evaluation data on the vulnerability of various energy production sectors to climate change are presented. It is shown that, due to the increase of air temperature, the efficiency of electricity production at thermal and nuclear power plants declines. According to the climate model results, the production of electricity at TPPs and NPPs by 2050 could be reduced by 6 billion kW h due to the temperature increase. At the same time, as a result of simulation, the expected increase in the rainfall amount and river runoff in Russia by 2050 could lead to an increase in the output of HPP by 4-6% as compared with the current level, i.e., by 8 billion kW h. For energy transmission and distribution, the climate warming will mean an increase in transmission losses, which, according to estimates, may amount to approximately 1 billion kW h by 2050. The increase of air temperature in summer will require higher energy consumption for air conditioning, which will increase by approximately 6 billion kW h by 2050. However, in total, the optimal energy consumption in Russia, corresponding to the postindustrial level, will decrease by 2050 by approximately 150 billion kW h as a result of climate- induced changes. The maximum global warming impact is focused on the heat demand sector. As a result of a decrease in the heating degree-days by 2050, the need for space heating is expected to fall by 10-15%, which will cause a fuel conservation sufficient for generating approximately 140 billion kW h of electricity. Hence, a conclusion about the positive direct impact of climate change on the Russia's energy sector follows, which is constituted in the additional available energy resource of approximately 300 billion kW h per year.

Interpretations of family size distributions: The Datura example

Science.gov (United States)

Henych, Tomáš; Holsapple, Keith A.

2018-04-01

Young asteroid families are unique sources of information about fragmentation physics and the structure of their parent bodies, since their physical properties have not changed much since their birth. Families have different properties such as age, size, taxonomy, collision severity and others, and understanding the effect of those properties on our observations of the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of family fragments can give us important insights into the hypervelocity collision processes at scales we cannot achieve in our laboratories. Here we take as an example the very young Datura family, with a small 8-km parent body, and compare its size distribution to other families, with both large and small parent bodies, and created by both catastrophic and cratering formation events. We conclude that most likely explanation for the shallower size distribution compared to larger families is a more pronounced observational bias because of its small size. Its size distribution is perfectly normal when its parent body size is taken into account. We also discuss some other possibilities. In addition, we study another common feature: an offset or "bump" in the distribution occurring for a few of the larger elements. We hypothesize that it can be explained by a newly described regime of cratering, "spall cratering", which controls the majority of impact craters on the surface of small asteroids like Datura.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Multimode Interference: Identifying Channels and Ridges in Quantum Probability Distributions

OpenAIRE

O'Connell, Ross C.; Loinaz, Will

2004-01-01

The multimode interference technique is a simple way to study the interference patterns found in many quantum probability distributions. We demonstrate that this analysis not only explains the existence of so-called "quantum carpets," but can explain the spatial distribution of channels and ridges in the carpets. With an understanding of the factors that govern these channels and ridges we have a limited ability to produce a particular pattern of channels and ridges by carefully choosing the ...

Impact of the Three Gorges project on ecological environment changes and snail distribution in Dongting Lake area.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feiyue Li

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The Three Gorges Dam (TGD is a remarkable, far-reaching project in China. This study was conducted to assess the impact of TGD on changes in the ecological environment, snail distribution and schistosomiasis transmission in Dongting Lake area.Hydrological data were collected from 12 monitoring sites in Hunan section of Yangtze River before and after TGD was established. Data on snail distribution and human schistosomiasis infection were also collected. Correlation analyses were performed to detect the significance of snail distribution to changes in ecological environmental factors and human schistosomiasis infection.A series of ecological environmental factors have changed in Dongting Lake area following the operation of TGD. Volume of annual runoff discharged into Dongting Lake declined by 20.85%. Annual sediment volume discharged into the lake and the mean lake sedimentation rate decreased by 73.9% and 32.2%, respectively. From 2003 to 2015, occurrence rate of frames with living snails and mean density of living snails decreased overall by 82.43% and 94.35%, respectively, with annual decrements being 13.49% and 21.29%. Moreover, human infection rate of schistosomiasis had decreased from 3.38% in 2003 to 0.44% in 2015, with a reduction of 86.98%. Correlation analyses showed that mean density of living snails was significantly associated with water level (r = 0.588, p<0.001, as well as the mean elevation range of the bottomland (r = 0.374, p = 0.025 and infection rate of schistosomiasis (r = 0.865, p<0.001.Ecological environmental changes caused by the TGD were associated with distribution of snails, and might further affect the transmission and prevalence of schistosomiasis. Risk of schistosomiasis transmission still exists in Dongting Lake area and long-term monitoring is required.

The Kok effect in Vicia faba cannot be explained solely by changes in chloroplastic CO2 concentration.

Science.gov (United States)

Buckley, Thomas N; Vice, Heather; Adams, Mark A

2017-12-01

The Kok effect - an abrupt decline in quantum yield (QY) of net CO 2 assimilation at low photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) - is widely used to estimate respiration in the light (R), which assumes the effect is caused by light suppression of R. A recent report suggested much of the Kok effect can be explained by declining chloroplastic CO 2 concentration (c c ) at low PPFD. Several predictions arise from the hypothesis that the Kok effect is caused by declining c c , and we tested these predictions in Vicia faba. We measured CO 2 exchange at low PPFD, in 2% and 21% oxygen, in developing and mature leaves, which differed greatly in R in darkness. Our results contradicted each of the predictions based on the c c effect: QY exceeded the theoretical maximum value for photosynthetic CO 2 uptake; QY was larger in 21% than 2% oxygen; and the change in QY at the Kok effect breakpoint was unaffected by oxygen. Our results strongly suggest the Kok effect arises largely from a progressive decline in R with PPFD that includes both oxygen-sensitive and -insensitive components. We suggest an improved Kok method that accounts for high c c at low PPFD. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Explaining NDVI trends in northern Burkina Faso

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Kjeld; Fensholt, Rasmus; Fog, Bjarne

2014-01-01

by a distinct spatial pattern and strongly dominated by negative trends in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The aim of the paper is to explain this distinct pattern. When studied over the period 2000–2012, using NDVI data from the MODIS sensor the spatial pattern of NDVI trends indicates that non......-climatic factors are involved. By relating NDVI trends to landscape elements and land use change we demonstrate that NDVI trends in the north-western parts of the study area are mostly related to landscape elements, while this is not the case in the south-eastern parts, where rapidly changing land use, including....... expansion of irrigation, plays a major role. It is inferred that a process of increased redistribution of fine soil material, water and vegetation from plateaus and slopes to valleys, possibly related to higher grazing pressure, may provide an explanation of the observed pattern of NDVI trends. Further work...

The factors that explain the major agglomeration of the industry of high technology in the north border of Mexico: the case of Matamoros and Reynosa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Alberto Pérez Cruz

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the last three decades the geographical distribution of manufacturing change substantially, prompting new concentrations, particularly in the high tech industry. In this sense, the aim of this study is to know and analyze from the perspective of pecuniary and technological externalities factors that explain the change in the agglomeration of high-tech manufacturing. To do so,a questionnaire was applied to 55 manufacturing facilities located in Matamoros andReynosa in Tamaulipas. The results indicate that the highest concentration of high-tech industry has been motivated mainly by the geographic location of the municipalities, access to unskilled labor and cheap availability of urban infrastructure, among others. This means that there is no evidence for the pecuniary and technological externalities determine the agglomeration of high-tech industry in these cities.

Density and spatial distribution of Parkia biglobosa pattern in Benin under climate change

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Fafunkè Titilayo Dotchamou

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Parkia biglobosa is an indigenous species which, traditionally contributes to the resilience of the agricultural production system in terms of food security, source of income, poverty reduction and ecosystem stability. Therefore, it is important to improve knowledge on its density, current and future spatial distribution. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the tree density, the climate change effects on the spatial distribution of the species in the future for better conservation. The modeling of the current and future geographical distribution of the species is based on the principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt on a total of 286 occurrence points from field work and Global Biodiversity Information Facility GBIF-Data Portal-(www.gbif.org. Two climatic models (HadGEM2_ES and Csiro_mk3_6_0 have been used under two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the projection of the species distribution at the horizon 2050. The correlation analyses and Jackknife test have helped to identify seven variables which are less correlated (r < 0.80 with highest modeling participation. The soil, annual precipitation (BIO12 and temperature (diurnal average Deviation are the variables which have mostly contributed to performance of the models. Currently, 53% of national territory, spread from north to south is very suitable to the cultivation of P. biglobosa. The scenarios have predicted at the horizon 2050, a loss of the habitats which are currently very suitable for the cultivation and conservation of P. biglobosa, to the benefit of moderate and weak habitats. 51% and 57% are the highest proportion of this lost which will be registered with HadGEM2_ES model under two scenarios. These results revealed that the suitable habitat of the species is threatened by climate change in Benin. In order to limit damage such as decreased productivity, extinction of species, some appropriate solutions must be found.

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

2018-01-01

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

The Effect of the Holes Size Change of Lower-Support-Structure-Bottom Plate on the Reactor Core-Inlet Flow-Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Gong Hee; Bang, Young Seok; Cheong, Ae Ju

2015-01-01

Complex thermal-hydraulic phenomena exist inside PWR because reactor interiors include a fuel assembly, control rod assembly, ICI (In-Core Instrumentation), and other internal structures. Because changes to reactor design may influence interior, thermal-hydraulic characteristics, licensing applicants commonly conduct a flow-distribution test and use test results (e.g., core-inlet flow-rate distribution) as the input data for a core thermal-margin analysis program. Because the APR+ (Advanced Power Reactor Plus) had more fuel assemblies (241EA → 257EA) and the design of some internal structures was changed (from those of APR1400), the core-inlet flow-rate distribution for a 1/5 scaled-down reactor model was measured and high flow-rates were found especially near the outer region of the reactor core. In this study, to examine the effect of the holes size change (i.e. smaller diameter) in the outer region of the LSSBP, not a 50% blockage of the flow holes, on the reactor core-inlet flow-distribution, simulations were conducted with the commercial CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) software, ANSYS CFX R.14. The predicted results were compared with those of the original LSSBP. In this study, to examine the effect of the holes size change (smaller diameter) in the outer region of the LSSBP on the reactor core-inlet flow-distribution, simulations were conducted with the commercial CFD software, ANSYS CFX R.14. The predicted results were compared with those of the original LSSBP. Through these comparisons it was concluded that a more uniform distribution of the mass-flow rate at the core-inlet plane could be obtained by reducing the holes size in the outer region of the LSSBP

Dynamic changes in Rad51 distribution on chromatin during meiosis in male and female vertebrates.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashley, T; Plug, A W; Xu, J; Solari, A J; Reddy, G; Golub, E I; Ward, D C

1995-10-01

Antibodies against human Rad51 protein were used to examine the distribution of Rad51 on meiotic chromatin in mouse spermatocytes and oocytes as well as chicken oocytes during sequential stages of meiosis. We observed the following dynamic changes in distribution of Rad51 during meiosis: (1) in early leptotene nuclei there are multiple, apparently randomly distributed, foci that by late leptonema become organized into tracks of foci. (2) These foci persist into zygonema, but most foci are now localized on Rad51-positive axes that correspond to lateral elements of the synaptonemal complex. As homologs synapse foci from homologous axes fuse. The distribution and involvement of Rad51 foci as contact points between homologs suggest that they may be components to early recombination nodules. (3) As pachynema progresses the number of foci drops dramatically; the temporal occurrence (mice) and physical and numerical distribution of foci on axes (chickens) suggest that they may be a component of late recombination nodules. (4) In early pachynema there are numerous Rad51 foci on the single axis of the X (mouse spermatocytes) or the Z (chicken oocytes) chromosomes that neither pair, nor recombine. (5) In late pachynema in mouse spermatocytes, but not oocytes, the Rad51 signal is preferentially enhanced at both ends of all the bivalents. As bivalents in spermatocytes, but not oocytes, begin to desynapse at diplonema they are often held together at these Rad51-positive termini. These observations parallel observations that recombination rates are exceptionally high near chromosome ends in male but not female eutherian mammals. (6) From diakinesis through metaphase I, Rad51 protein is detected as low-intensity fluorescent doublets that localize with CREST-specific antigens (kinetochores), suggesting that Rad51 participates, at least as a structural component of the materials involved, in sister kinetochore cohesiveness. Finally, the changes in Rad51 distribution during meiosis

Changes in subcellular elemental distributions accompanying the acrosome reaction in sea urchin sperm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantino, M.E.; Schackmann, R.W.; Johnson, D.E.

1983-01-01

Energy-dispersive x-ray microanalysis was used to analyze changes in the subcellular distributions of Na, Mg, P, S, Cl, K, and Ca associated with the acrosome reaction of sea urchin sperm. Within 5 sec after induction of the acrosome reaction, nuclear Na and mitochondrial Ca increased and nuclear and mitochondrial K decreased. Uptake of mitochondrial P was detected after several minutes, and increases in nuclear Mg were detected only after 5-10 min of incubation following induction of the reaction. The results suggest that sudden permeability changes in the sperm plasma membrane are associated with the acrosome reaction, but that complete breakdown of membrane and cell function does not occur for several minutes

DISPOWER. The Changing Role of Energy Suppliers and Distribution System Operators in the Deployment of Distributed Generation in Liberalised Electricity Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Werven, M.J.N.; Scheepers, M.J.J.

2005-06-01

The penetration of distributed generation (DG) is increasing in most electricity markets and it is expected that this development will continue in the near future. The main research question to be answered in this report is how distribution system operators (DSOs) and energy suppliers can adapt to the growth and concurrently can contribute to the competition strength of DG in a regulated and competitive electricity market. DSOs and energy suppliers have to change their business focus in order to keep their business lucrative. By developing new business activities, thereby diversifying the business model, and by changing networks into active networks, DSOs can overcome the threats that arise from the increasing penetration of DG, incentive regulation, regulated connection charges, and unbundling. Apart from the need for a changing attitude of the DSOs, regulation needs to evolve such that it allows DSOs to have access to a wider range of options and incentives available in choosing the most efficient ways to run their businesses. For energy suppliers, the development of new business strategies and new revenue drivers is a more 'natural' process than for DSOs. At least in theory, the dynamic working of this competitive market should give incentives to energy suppliers to improve margins, respond to market challenges, continuously develop new revenue drivers, and to display a certain degree of innovation. The increase of electricity supply from DG is an opportunity for energy suppliers to extend and improve its business. A new business concept related to the growing penetration of DG is, for example, the creation of virtual power plants

On the size distribution of cities: an economic interpretation of the Pareto coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Suh, S H

1987-01-01

"Both the hierarchy and the stochastic models of size distribution of cities are analyzed in order to explain the Pareto coefficient by economic variables. In hierarchy models, it is found that the rate of variation in the productivity of cities and that in the probability of emergence of cities can explain the Pareto coefficient. In stochastic models, the productivity of cities is found to explain the Pareto coefficient. New city-size distribution functions, in which the Pareto coefficient is decomposed by economic variables, are estimated." excerpt

Mating changes the subcellular distribution and the functionality of estrogen receptors in the rat oviduct

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sierralta Walter

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mating changes the mode of action of 17beta-estradiol (E2 to accelerate oviductal egg transport from a nongenomic to a genomic mode, although in both pathways estrogen receptors (ER are required. This change was designated as intracellular path shifting (IPS. Methods Herein, we examined the subcellular distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 (formerly known as ER-alpha and ER-beta in oviductal epithelial cells of rats on day 1 of cycle (C1 or pregnancy (P1 using immunoelectron microscopy for ESR1 and ESR2. The effect of mating on intraoviductal ESR1 or ESR2 signaling was then explored comparing the expression of E2-target genes c-fos, brain creatine kinase (Ckb and calbindin 9 kDa (s100g in rats on C1 or P1 treated with selective agonists for ESR1 (PPT or ESR2 (DPN. The effect of ER agonists on egg transport was also evaluated on C1 or P1 rats. Results Receptor immunoreactivity was associated with the nucleus, cytoplasm and plasma membrane of the epithelial cells. Mating affected the subcellular distribution of both receptors as well as the response to E2. In C1 and P1 rats, PPT increased Ckb while both agonists increased c-fos. DPN increased Ckb and s100g only in C1 and P1 rats, respectively. PPT accelerated egg transport in both groups and DPN accelerated egg transport only in C1 rats. Conclusion Estrogen receptors present a subcellular distribution compatible with E2 genomic and nongenomic signaling in the oviductal epithelial cells of C1 and P1 although IPS occurs independently of changes in the distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 in the oviductal epithelial cells. Mating affected intraoviductal ER-signaling and induced loss of functional involvement of ESR2 on E2-induced accelerated egg transport. These findings reveal a profound influence on the ER signaling pathways exerted by mating in the oviduct.

Mating changes the subcellular distribution and the functionality of estrogen receptors in the rat oviduct.

Science.gov (United States)

Orihuela, Pedro A; Zuñiga, Lidia M; Rios, Mariana; Parada-Bustamante, Alexis; Sierralta, Walter D; Velásquez, Luis A; Croxatto, Horacio B

2009-11-30

Mating changes the mode of action of 17beta-estradiol (E2) to accelerate oviductal egg transport from a nongenomic to a genomic mode, although in both pathways estrogen receptors (ER) are required. This change was designated as intracellular path shifting (IPS). Herein, we examined the subcellular distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 (formerly known as ER-alpha and ER-beta) in oviductal epithelial cells of rats on day 1 of cycle (C1) or pregnancy (P1) using immunoelectron microscopy for ESR1 and ESR2. The effect of mating on intraoviductal ESR1 or ESR2 signaling was then explored comparing the expression of E2-target genes c-fos, brain creatine kinase (Ckb) and calbindin 9 kDa (s100g) in rats on C1 or P1 treated with selective agonists for ESR1 (PPT) or ESR2 (DPN). The effect of ER agonists on egg transport was also evaluated on C1 or P1 rats. Receptor immunoreactivity was associated with the nucleus, cytoplasm and plasma membrane of the epithelial cells. Mating affected the subcellular distribution of both receptors as well as the response to E2. In C1 and P1 rats, PPT increased Ckb while both agonists increased c-fos. DPN increased Ckb and s100g only in C1 and P1 rats, respectively. PPT accelerated egg transport in both groups and DPN accelerated egg transport only in C1 rats. Estrogen receptors present a subcellular distribution compatible with E2 genomic and nongenomic signaling in the oviductal epithelial cells of C1 and P1 although IPS occurs independently of changes in the distribution of ESR1 and ESR2 in the oviductal epithelial cells. Mating affected intraoviductal ER-signaling and induced loss of functional involvement of ESR2 on E2-induced accelerated egg transport. These findings reveal a profound influence on the ER signaling pathways exerted by mating in the oviduct.

Using Citizen Science Observations to Model Species Distributions Over Space, Through Time, and Across Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kelling, S.

2017-12-01

The goal of Biodiversity research is to identify, explain, and predict why a species' distribution and abundance vary through time, space, and with features of the environment. Measuring these patterns and predicting their responses to change are not exercises in curiosity. Today, they are essential tasks for understanding the profound effects that humans have on earth's natural systems, and for developing science-based environmental policies. To gain insight about species' distribution patterns requires studying natural systems at appropriate scales, yet studies of ecological processes continue to be compromised by inadequate attention to scale issues. How spatial and temporal patterns in nature change with scale often reflects fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, or biology, and we can identify such basic, governing laws only by comparing patterns over a wide range of scales. This presentation will provide several examples that integrate bird observations made by volunteers, with NASA Earth Imagery using Big Data analysis techniques to analyze the temporal patterns of bird occurrence across scales—from hemisphere-wide views of bird distributions to the impact of powerful city lights on bird migration.

Explaining Women's Success: Technological Change and the Skill Content of Women's Work

OpenAIRE

Sandra E. Black; Alexandra Spitz-Oener

2010-01-01

The closing of the gender wage gap is an ongoing phenomenon in industrialized countries. However, research has been limited in its ability to understand the causes of these changes, due in part to an inability to directly compare the work of women to that of men. In this study, we use a new approach for analyzing changes in the gender pay gap that uses direct measures of job tasks and gives a comprehensive characterization of how work for men and women has changed in recent decades. Using dat...

Mathematical theories of distributed sensor networks

CERN Document Server

Iyengar, Sitharama S; Balakrishnan, N

2014-01-01

Mathematical Theory of Distributed Sensor Networks demonstrates how mathematical theories can be used to provide distributed sensor modeling and to solve important problems such as coverage hole detection and repair. The book introduces the mathematical and computational structure by discussing what they are, their applications and how they differ from traditional systems. The text also explains how mathematics are utilized to provide efficient techniques implementing effective coverage, deployment, transmission, data processing, signal processing, and data protection within distributed sensor networks. Finally, the authors discuss some important challenges facing mathematics to get more incite to the multidisciplinary area of distributed sensor networks.

Why did the breast cancer lymph node status distribution improve in Denmark in the pre-mammography screening period of 1978-1994?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rostgaard, K.; Vaeth, M.; Rootzen, Helle

2010-01-01

Background. Danish breast cancer patients diagnosed in 1978-1994 experienced a trend over time towards a more favourable distribution of lymph node status at time of diagnosis, which was not due to mammography screening. We investigated how this trend could be explained by patient characteristics...... at diagnosis: age (biological processes), calendar period (e.g. environmental changes), birth cohort (living conditions over a life time), post-menopausal status (a predictor of less favourable nodal status), and tumour diameter (a marker of detection time). Material and methods. The data set consisted of 22...... using an EM algorithm in order to reduce misclassification. Results and discussion. We found that the improved lymph node status distribution was most likely a period effect due to a combination of earlier detection of clinical tumours, explaining most of the trend in node-positive breast cancer...

How much of the difference in life expectancy between Scottish cities does deprivation explain?

Science.gov (United States)

Seaman, R; Mitchell, R; Dundas, R; Leyland, A H; Popham, F

2015-10-16

Glasgow's low life expectancy and high levels of deprivation are well documented. Studies comparing Glasgow to similarly deprived cities in England suggest an excess of deaths in Glasgow that cannot be accounted for by deprivation. Within Scotland comparisons are more equivocal suggesting deprivation could explain Glasgow's excess mortality. Few studies have used life expectancy, an intuitive measure that quantifies the between-city difference in years. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date data to compare Glasgow to other Scottish cities and to (i) evaluate whether deprivation could account for lower life expectancy in Glasgow and (ii) explore whether the age distribution of mortality in Glasgow could explain its lower life expectancy. Sex specific life expectancy was calculated for 2007-2011 for the population in Glasgow and the combined population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh. Life expectancy was calculated for deciles of income deprivation, based on the national ranking of datazones, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Life expectancy in Glasgow overall, and by deprivation decile, was compared to that in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, and the life expectancy difference decomposed by age using Arriaga's discrete method. Life expectancy for the whole Glasgow population was lower than the population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined. When life expectancy was compared by national income deprivation decile, Glasgow's life expectancy was not systematically lower, and deprivation accounted for over 90 % of the difference. This was reduced to 70 % of the difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis using city-specific income deprivation deciles. In both analyses life expectancy was not systematically lower in Glasgow when stratified by deprivation. Decomposing the differences in life expectancy also showed that the age distribution of mortality was not systematically different in Glasgow after accounting for deprivation

Age-related changes in abdominal fat distribution in Japanese adults in the general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugihara, Masako; Oka, Rie; Sakurai, Masaru; Nakamura, Koshi; Moriuchi, Tadashi; Miyamoto, Susumu; Takeda, Yoshiyu; Yagi, Kunimasa; Yamagishi, Masakazu

2011-01-01

Early studies have indicated that body fat shifts from peripheral stores to central stores with aging. The objective of this study was to investigate age-related changes in abdominal fat distribution of Japanese men and women of the general population over a wide range of body mass indices (BMI). A total of 2,220 non-diabetic, apparently healthy Japanese adults (1,240 men and 980 women; age range 40-69 years) were included in the study sample. All subjects underwent a CT scan at the level of the umbilicus, and the areas of visceral adipose tissue (AT) and subcutaneous AT were quantified. When the subjects were stratified by BMI into 18.5-23.0 kg/m(2), 23.0-27.5 kg/m(2), and 27.5 kg/m(2) or higher, visceral AT was positively correlated with age in all of the BMI strata in both genders (pabdominal fat distribution, women retained the subcutaneous-dominant type of fat distribution up to 70 years.

Changes in Vascular Plant Biodiversity in the Netherlands in the 20th Century Explained by their Climatic and other Environmental Characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamis, W.L.M.; Van der Meijden, R.; Udo de Haes, H.A. [Nationaal Herbarium Nederland/Leiden University Branch, P.O. Box 9514, 2300, RA, Leiden (Netherlands); Van ' t Zelfde, M. [Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300, RA, Leiden (Netherlands)

2005-09-01

In the Netherlands nation-wide databases are available with about 10 million records of occurrences of vascular plant species in the 20th century on a scale of approximately 1 km{sup 2}. These data were analysed with a view to identifying relationships between changes in botanical biodiversity and climatic and other environmental factors. Prior to analysis the data were corrected for several major forms of survey bias. The records were broken down into three periods: 1902-1949, 1975-1984 and 1985-1999. Using multiple regression analysis, differences between successive periods were related to plant functional characteristics as explanatory variables. Between the periods 1902-1949 and 1975-1984 there were small but significant increases in the presence of both thermophilic ('warm') and psychrophilic ('cold') species. However, in the final decades of the 20th century there was a marked increase in thermophilic species only, coinciding with the marked increase in ambient temperature observed during this period, evidence at least of a rapid response of Dutch flora to climate change. Urbanisation was also examined as an alternative explanation for the increase in thermophilic plant species and was found to explain only 50% of the increased presence of such species in the final decades of the 20th century. Besides temperature-related effects, the most important change during the 20th century was a strong decline in oligotrophic and a marked increase in eutrophic plant species.

The rise and fall of plankton: long-term changes in the vertical distribution of algae and grazers in Lake Baikal, Siberia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie E Hampton

Full Text Available Both surface water temperatures and the intensity of thermal stratification have increased recently in large lakes throughout the world. Such physical changes can be accompanied by shifts in plankton community structure, including changes in relative abundances and depth distributions. Here we analyzed 45 years of data from Lake Baikal, the world's oldest, deepest, and most voluminous lake, to assess long-term trends in the depth distribution of pelagic phytoplankton and zooplankton. Surface water temperatures in Lake Baikal increased steadily between 1955 and 2000, resulting in a stronger thermal gradient within the top 50 m of the water column. In conjunction with these physical changes our analyses reveal significant shifts in the daytime depth distribution of important phytoplankton and zooplankton groups. The relatively heavy diatoms, which often rely on mixing to remain suspended in the photic zone, shifted downward in the water column by 1.90 m y(-1, while the depths of other phytoplankton groups did not change significantly. Over the same time span the density-weighted average depth of most major zooplankton groups, including cladocerans, rotifers, and immature copepods, exhibited rapid shifts toward shallower positions (0.57-0.75 m y(-1. As a result of these depth changes the vertical overlap between herbivorous copepods (Epischura baikalensis and their algal food appears to have increased through time while that for cladocerans decreased. We hypothesize that warming surface waters and reduced mixing caused these ecological changes. Future studies should examine how changes in the vertical distribution of plankton might impact energy flow in this lake and others.

Wealth distribution on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Ichinomiya, Takashi

2012-12-01

We study the wealth distribution of the Bouchaud-Mézard model on complex networks. It is known from numerical simulations that this distribution depends on the topology of the network; however, no one has succeeded in explaining it. Using “adiabatic” and “independent” assumptions along with the central-limit theorem, we derive equations that determine the probability distribution function. The results are compared to those of simulations for various networks. We find good agreement between our theory and the simulations, except for the case of Watts-Strogatz networks with a low rewiring rate due to the breakdown of independent assumption.

Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Uneven Distribution of Regional Blood Supply Prompts the Cystic Change of Pituitary Adenoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianhe; Gu, Jianjun; Ma, Yiming; Huang, Yinxing; Wang, Jiaxing; Wu, Zhifeng; Zhong, Qun; Wang, Shousen

2017-07-01

Previous studies have suggested that the cystic change of pituitary adenoma might be related to the blood supply and metabolism of the tumor; however, the exact pathologic mechanism underlying the cystic change remains unknown. We aimed to assess the features of regional blood supply of pituitary adenoma and examine its relationship with the cystic change of pituitary adenoma. Patients (N = 79) with pituitary adenoma admitted to our hospital were divided into the parenchyma group (n = 40) or the cystic change group (n = 39). Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of the pituitary adenoma was conducted for the parenchyma group and the steepest slopes (SS max , reflecting regional blood supply) at different areas were calculated. The location of cystic change of the pituitary adenoma was recorded and analyzed for the cystic change group. The parenchyma group showed an upper SS max of 2.52 ± 1.18, a lower SS max of 2.89 ± 1.46, a left SS max of 2.71 ± 1.31, and a right SS max of 2.66 ± 1.29. The difference between the upper and lower SS max was statistically significant (P supply is unevenly distributed in the parenchymal pituitary adenoma, with reduced blood supply in the upper than the lower region. Cystic change mainly occurs in the upper region of pituitary adenoma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toward a Unified Europe? Explaining Cultural Differences by Economic Development, Cultural Heritage and Historical Shocks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beugelsdijk, S.; van Schaik, A.B.T.M.

2002-01-01

Economic development is linked with systematic changes in basic values, but cultural change is path dependent.This is known as Inglehart's thesis.In this paper we build on his thesis and try to explain value differences across European regions.This is relevant as it fits in the ongoing discussion of

The changing gender distribution of paid and unpaid work in New Zealand

OpenAIRE

Paul Callister

2005-01-01

This paper explores five main questions regarding the gender distribution of work, primarily in the context of couples with young children. These are: how much total paid and unpaid work is carried out in New Zealand?; how is this work shared between women and men?; how does this compare with other countries?; how might the mix of unpaid and paid work change in New Zealand in the future?; and should gender equity in paid and unpaid work be a key part of the discussion about labour market part...

Species distribution and introgressive hybridization of two Avicennia species from the Western Hemisphere unveiled by phylogeographic patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, Gustavo M; Zucchi, Maria I; Sampaio, Iracilda; Souza, Anete P

2015-04-10

Mangrove plants grow in the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The global latitudinal distribution of the mangrove is mainly influenced by climatic and oceanographic features. Because of current climate changes, poleward range expansions have been reported for the major biogeographic regions of mangrove forests in the Western and Eastern Hemispheres. There is evidence that mangrove forests also responded similarly after the last glaciation by expanding their ranges. In this context, the use of genetic tools is an informative approach for understanding how historical processes and factors impact the distribution of mangrove species. We investigated the phylogeographic patterns of two Avicennia species, A. germinans and A. schaueriana, from the Western Hemisphere using nuclear and chloroplast DNA markers. Our results indicate that, although Avicennia bicolor, A. germinans and A. schaueriana are independent lineages, hybridization between A. schaueriana and A. germinans is a relevant evolutionary process. Our findings also reinforce the role of long-distance dispersal in widespread mangrove species such as A. germinans, for which we observed signs of transatlantic dispersal, a process that has, most likely, contributed to the breadth of the distribution of A. germinans. However, along the southern coast of South America, A. schaueriana is the only representative of the genus. The distribution patterns of A. germinans and A. schaueriana are explained by their different responses to past climate changes and by the unequal historical effectiveness of relative gene flow by propagules and pollen. We observed that A. bicolor, A. germinans and A. schaueriana are three evolutionary lineages that present historical and ongoing hybridization on the American continent. We also inferred a new evidence of transatlantic dispersal for A. germinans, which may have contributed to its widespread distribution. Despite the generally wider distribution of A

Distributed photovoltaic grid transformers

CERN Document Server

Shertukde, Hemchandra Madhusudan

2014-01-01

The demand for alternative energy sources fuels the need for electric power and controls engineers to possess a practical understanding of transformers suitable for solar energy. Meeting that need, Distributed Photovoltaic Grid Transformers begins by explaining the basic theory behind transformers in the solar power arena, and then progresses to describe the development, manufacture, and sale of distributed photovoltaic (PV) grid transformers, which help boost the electric DC voltage (generally at 30 volts) harnessed by a PV panel to a higher level (generally at 115 volts or higher) once it is

Trait modality distribution of aquatic macrofauna communities as explained by pesticides and water chemistry

OpenAIRE

Ieromina, O.; Musters, C. J. M.; Bodegom, P. M.; Peijnenburg, W. J. G. M.; Vijver, M. G.

2016-01-01

Analyzing functional species? characteristics (species traits) that represent physiological, life history and morphological characteristics of species help understanding the impacts of various stressors on aquatic communities at field conditions. This research aimed to study the combined effects of pesticides and other environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen, dissolved organic carbon, floating macrophytes cover, phosphate, nitrite, and nitrate) on the trait modality distribution ...

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY IN CHANGING MARKET ENVIRONMENT : Case: Belgian Brewery Van Honsebrouck in Russia

OpenAIRE

Louckx, Yulia

2014-01-01

The efficient distribution strategy formulation becomes vital to the success and survival of any organization, especially when it is involved in international trade. Today’s world is particularly challenging due to rapidly changing market conditions. Therefore, in order to able to compete, satisfy customers, and meet the needs of other stakeholders profitably, it is crucial for any company to make profound market environment analyses, react to changes in the market and adjust strategies accor...

Temperature induced changes in size dependent distributions of two boreal and three Lusitanian flatfish species: A comparative study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hal, van R.; Kooten, van T.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.

2016-01-01

Changes in spatial distribution in several fish species have been related to recent increase in global temperature. In the North Sea, both a poleward shift and a shift to deeper water have been observed. Here, we study the underlying mechanism of these shifts in a comparative study of the changes in

Changes in distribution of cell cycle phases and DNA content in HeLa S3 cell after irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Shunbao

1992-01-01

The effects of irradiation and hyperthermia on the distribution in various phases and DNA content of HeLa S 3 cells were analyzed by flow cytometry and an image analysis instrument. A marked increase in DNA content from 6.718 to 9.614(AU) in HeLa S 3 cells after 6 Gy irradiation was seen to correspond with the changes in the distribution of various phases in G 2 + M, from 22% to 52%. Meanwhile, the surviving fraction of HeLa S 3 cells after 6 Gy irradiation was less than 1%. However, after heating at 44 deg C for 10 min, the amount of cells in G 2 + M increased from 22.5% to 52.5% and the surviving fraction after hyperthermia was less than 2.65%. The changes in distribution of various phases after Ir-192 irradiation were similar to those seen after X-ray irradiation. The delay of G 2 + M phase after treatment with 8 Gy plus heating at 44 deg C for 7 min in HeLa S 3 cells was similar to that seen in the case of treatment with 8 Gy alone. As the surviving fraction accompanying the G 2 + M delay after irradiation plus heat treatment was very low, we suggest that the changes of distribution in various phases of HeLa S 3 cells after treatment might be used as a rapid indicator of serious injury

Historical changes in caribou distribution and land cover in and around Prince Albert National Park: land management implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria L. Arlt

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In central Saskatchewan, boreal woodland caribou population declines have been documented in the 1940s and again in the 1980s. Although both declines led to a ban in sport hunting, a recovery was only seen in the 1950s and was attributed to wolf control and hunting closure. Recent studies suggest that this time, the population may not be increasing. In order to contribute to the conservation efforts, historical changes in caribou distribution and land cover types in the Prince Albert Greater Ecosystem (PAGE, Saskatchewan, were documented for the period of 1960s to the present. To examine changes in caribou distribution, survey observations, incidental sightings and telemetry data were collated. To quantify landscape changes, land cover maps were created for 1966 and 2006 using current and historic forest resources inventories, fire, logging, and roads data. Results indicate that woodland caribou are still found throughout the study area although their distribution has changed and their use of the National Park is greatly limited. Results of transition prob¬abilities and landscape composition analyses on the 1966 and 2006 land cover maps revealed an aging landscape for both the National Park and provincial crown land portions of the PAGE. In addition, increased logging and the development of extensive road and trail networks on provincial crown land produced significant landscape fragmentation for woodland caribou and reduced functional attributes of habitat patches. Understanding historical landscape changes will assist with ongoing provincial and federal recovery efforts for boreal caribou, forest management planning activities, and landscape restoration efforts within and beyond the Park boundaries.

Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal--A Systematic Synthesis of Literature.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meghnath Dhimal

Full Text Available Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs, namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change.A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA guidelines.We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level. Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies.Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.

Realized niches explain spatial gradients in seasonal abundance of phytoplankton groups in the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Wupeng; Wang, Lei; Laws, Edward; Xie, Yuyuan; Chen, Jixin; Liu, Xin; Chen, Bingzhang; Huang, Bangqin

2018-03-01

A basic albeit elusive goal of ocean science is to predict the structure of biological communities from the multitude of environmental conditions they experience. Estimates of the realized niche-based traits (realized traits) of phytoplankton species or functional groups in temperate seas have shown that response traits can help reveal the mechanisms responsible for structuring phytoplankton communities, but such approaches have not been tested in tropical and subtropical marginal seas. Here, we used decadal-scale studies of pigment-based phytoplankton groups and environmental conditions in the South China Sea to test whether realized traits could explain the biogeographic patterns of phytoplankton variability. We estimated the mean and breadth of the phytoplankton realized niches based on responses of the group-specific phytoplankton composition to key environmental factors, and we showed that variations of major phytoplankton groups in this system can be explained by different adaptive trade-offs to constraints imposed by temperature, irradiance, and nutrient concentrations. Differences in the patterns of trade-offs clearly separated the dominant groups from one another and generated four sets of realized traits that mirrored the observed biogeographic distribution patterns. The phytoplankton realized niches and their associated traits that we characterized in the present study could help to predict responses of phytoplankton to changes in environmental conditions in the South China Sea and could be incorporated into global biogeochemical models to anticipate shifts in community structure under future climate scenarios.

Climate change, tourism and historical grazing influence the distribution of Carex lachenalii Schkuhr - A rare arctic-alpine species in the Tatra Mts.

Science.gov (United States)

Czortek, Patryk; Delimat, Anna; Dyderski, Marcin K; Zięba, Antoni; Jagodziński, Andrzej M; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan

2018-03-15

Mountain vegetation is highly specialized to harsh climatic conditions and therefore is sensitive to any change in environment. The rarest and most vulnerable plants occurring in alpine regions are expected to respond rapidly to environmental changes. An example of such a species is Carex lachenalii subsp. lachenalii Schkuhr, which occurs in Poland on only a few isolated sites in the Tatra Mts. The aim of this study was to assess changes in distribution of C. lachenalii in the Tatra Mts over the past 50-150years and the effects of climate change, tourism and historical grazing on the ecological niche of C. lachenalii. We focused on changes in the importance of functional diversity components in shaping plant species composition. Over the past 50-150years, the elevation of the average distribution of C. lachenalii shifted about 178m upward alongside a significant prolongation of the vegetative season by approximately 20days in the last 50-60years. Species composition of plots without C. lachenalii was characterized by competition between plants, whereas on plots with C. lachenalii habitat filtering was the most important component. Our results suggest that climate change was the main factor driving upward shift of C. lachenalii. Moderate trampling enhanced horizontal spread of this plant, whereas cessation of grazing grazing caused decline of C. lachenalii. The three environmental factors studied that determined shifts in distribution of C. lachenalii may also contribute to changes in distribution of other rare mountain plant species causing changes in ecosystem functioning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neonatal changes in renal blood flow distribution in puppies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aschinberg, L.C.; Goldsmith, D.I.; Olbing, H.; Spitzer, A.; Edelmann, C.M. Jr.; Blaufox, M.D.

1975-01-01

The intrarenal distribution of blood flow was studied in 31 newborn mongrel puppies from 18 h to 70 days using xenon washout and krypton autoradiography. Mean renal blood flow increased from 0.39 +- 0.05 ml/g per min (SE) the 1st wk to 2.06 +- 0.12 ml/g per min at 6 wk. During the 1st wk of life the renal cortex was perfused homogeneously at 0.88 +- 0.19 ml/g min (SE) and accounted for 35 +- 4 percent of the renal blood flow. During the 2nd wk a narrow, rapidly perfused zone of outer cortex was identified which was perfused at 3.35 +- 0.26 ml/g per min, received 19.53 +- 5.05 percent of the total renal blood flow, and represented 15 +- 4 percent of the mass of the total cortex. The inner cortex and outer medulla at this time received 53.40 +- 4.12 percent of the flow at 1.07 +- 0.08 ml/g per min. Outer cortical flow increased with age reaching adult values by about 6 to 10 wk when the rapidly perfused area represented 40 +- 8 percent of the cortex. These changes are parallel to the results of previously reported studies with microspheres in newborn puppies and are compatible with the well-established maturational changes noted in neonates of several species. They represent the first gas-washout studies in animals during the first 6 wk of life

A plant distribution shift: temperature, drought or past disturbance?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dylan W Schwilk

Full Text Available Simple models of plant response to warming climates predict vegetation moving to cooler and/or wetter locations: in mountainous regions shifting upslope. However, species-specific responses to climate change are likely to be much more complex. We re-examined a recently reported vegetation shift in the Santa Rosa Mountains, California, to better understand the mechanisms behind the reported shift of a plant distribution upslope. We focused on five elevational zones near the center of the gradient that captured many of the reported shifts and which are dominated by fire-prone chaparral. Using growth rings, we determined that a major assumption of the previous work was wrong: past fire histories differed among elevations. To examine the potential effect that this difference might have on the reported upward shift, we focused on one species, Ceanothus greggii: a shrub that only recruits post-fire from a soil stored seedbank. For five elevations used in the prior study, we calculated time series of past per-capita mortality rates by counting growth rings on live and dead individuals. We tested three alternative hypotheses explaining the past patterns of mortality: 1 mortality increased over time consistent with climate warming, 2 mortality was correlated with drought indices, and 3 mortality peaked 40-50 years post fire at each site, consistent with self-thinning. We found that the sites were different ages since the last fire, and that the reported increase in the mean elevation of C. greggii was due to higher recent mortality at the lower elevations, which were younger sites. The time-series pattern of mortality was best explained by the self-thinning hypothesis and poorly explained by gradual warming or drought. At least for this species, the reported distribution shift appears to be an artifact of disturbance history and is not evidence of a climate warming effect.

[Prevalence and genotype distribution changes in hepatitis C virus co-infection among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Cifuentes, Celia; Mancebo-Hernández, María; Pérez-Navarro, Elisabet; Recio, Eva; Monje-Agudo, Patricia; Valiente, Adoración; Pineda, Juan A

2015-02-01

The prevalence of hepatitisC is decreasing among new diagnoses of HIV/HCV coinfection in Spain. The increasing use of the HCV treatment could have changed the HCV genotype distribution. The aim of this study is to analyze changes in the prevalence of HCV coinfection and in HCV genotype distribution among HIV-infected patients. A serial cross-sectional study was conducted that included all HIV-infected patients who attended the Outpatient Clinic of a hospital in Andalusia, between September 2008 and February 2009 (first period), and between January 2013 and June 2013 (second period). A total of 520 and 651 patients were included in the first and second period, respectively. The risk factors of HCV infection in the first vs. second period were: IDU, 319 (61%) vs. 348 (53%); heterosexual contact, 111 (21%) vs. 135 (21%); homosexual men, 76 (15%) vs. 114 (22%) (P=.006). The prevalence of HCV antibody per period was: 358 (69%) vs. 380 (58%) (P=<.001), and for the HCV-RNA was 255 (49%) vs. 240 (37%) (P=<.001). In both periods, the HCV genotype distribution was: 1, 137 (60%) vs. 138 (59%); 3, 45 (20%) vs. 42 (18%); 4, 42 (18%) vs. 47 (20%) (P=.881). The prevalence of HCV infection in HIV-infected patients has decreased in our area, including overall exposure to HCV virus and active infection during the last 5 years. However, the HCV genotype distribution has not changed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Distributed morality in an information society.

Science.gov (United States)

Floridi, Luciano

2013-09-01

The phenomenon of distributed knowledge is well-known in epistemic logic. In this paper, a similar phenomenon in ethics, somewhat neglected so far, is investigated, namely distributed morality. The article explains the nature of distributed morality, as a feature of moral agency, and explores the implications of its occurrence in advanced information societies. In the course of the analysis, the concept of infraethics is introduced, in order to refer to the ensemble of moral enablers, which, although morally neutral per se, can significantly facilitate or hinder both positive and negative moral behaviours.

Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippa McNeil

2005-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

Pitch angle distributions of electrons at dipolarization sites during geomagnetic activity: THEMIS observations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kaiti; Lin, Ching-Huei; Wang, Lu-Yin; Hada, Tohru; Nishimura, Yukitoshi; Turner, Drew L.; Angelopoulos, Vassilis

2014-12-01

Changes in pitch angle distributions of electrons with energies from a few eV to 1 MeV at dipolarization sites in Earth's magnetotail are investigated statistically to determine the extent to which adiabatic acceleration may contribute to these changes. Forty-two dipolarization events from 2008 and 2009 observed by Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms probes covering the inner plasma sheet from 8 RE to 12 RE during geomagnetic activity identified by the AL index are analyzed. The number of observed events with cigar-type distributions (peaks at 0° and 180°) decreases sharply below 1 keV after dipolarization because in many of these events, electron distributions became more isotropized. From above 1 keV to a few tens of keV, however, the observed number of cigar-type events increases after dipolarization and the number of isotropic events decreases. These changes can be related to the ineffectiveness of Fermi acceleration below 1 keV (at those energies, dipolarization time becomes comparable to electron bounce time). Model-calculated pitch angle distributions after dipolarization with the effect of betatron and Fermi acceleration tested indicate that these adiabatic acceleration mechanisms can explain the observed patterns of event number changes over a large range of energies for cigar events and isotropic events. Other factors still need to be considered to assess the observed increase in cigar events around 2 keV. Indeed, preferential directional increase/loss of electron fluxes, which may contribute to the formation of cigar events, was observed. Nonadiabatic processes to accelerate electrons in a parallel direction may also be important for future study.

Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hof, Christian

by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

Future of printing: changes and challenges, technologies and markets

Science.gov (United States)

Kipphan, Helmut

1998-01-01

Digitalization within the graphic arts industry is described and it is explained how it is improving and changing the print production strategies and which new kinds of print production systems are developed or can be expected. The relationship of printed media and electronic media is analyzed and a positioning for the next century is given. The state of the art of conventional printing technologies, especially using direct imagine techniques, and their position within the digital workflow are shortly described. Non-impact printing multicolor printing systems are explained, based on general design criteria and linked to existing and newly announced equipment. The use of high-tech components for building up successful systems with high reliability, high quality and low production costs is included with some examples. Digital printing systems open many opportunities in print production: distributed printing, personalization, print and book on demand are explained as examples. The overview of the several printing technologies and their positioning regarding quality and productivity leads to the scenario about the important position of printed media, also in the distant future.

The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

2013-08-01

A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

Change detection in full and dual polarization sar data and the complex wishart distribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut; Skriver, Henning

A test statistic for equality of two complex variance-covariance matrices following the complex Wishart distribution with an associated probability of observing a smaller value of the test statistic is sketched. We demonstrate the use of the test statistic and the associated probability measure f...... for change detection in both full and dual polarimetry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected by the Danish EMISAR system....

Patterns of cesium-137 distribution across two disparate floodplains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hay, J.D.; Ragsdale, H.L.

1978-01-01

Soil 137 Cs concentration was studied across upstream and downstream floodplain sites of Lower Three Runs Creek, an Upper Coastal Plain stream draining a portion of the Savannah River Plant. Soil samples were collected laterally and vertically at each floodplain location and analyzed for several edaphic characteristics. The results showed that these floodplains were differentiable by their edaphic characteristics both between sites and between depths within a site. The surface distribution of 137 Cs was related to microtopographic variation at each site, but predictive relationships for estimating surface-soil 137 Cs content from edaphic parameters were not as well defined. A difference in upstream to downstream 137 Cs cycling was explained on the basis of the change from direct to indirect nutrient cycling pathways in a downstream direction. This change was coincident with higher sedimentation, greater cation adsorptive capacity, and higher potassium concentrations found downstream

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Tang

Full Text Available Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline

SYVAC3 parameter distribution package

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T; Skeet, A

1995-01-01

SYVAC3 (Systems Variability Analysis Code, generation 3) is a computer program that implements a method called systems variability analysis to analyze the behaviour of a system in the presence of uncertainty. This method is based on simulating the system many times to determine the variation in behaviour it can exhibit. SYVAC3 specializes in systems representing the transport of contaminants, and has several features to simplify the modelling of such systems. It provides a general tool for estimating environmental impacts from the dispersal of contaminants. This report describes a software object type (a generalization of a data type) called Parameter Distribution. This object type is used in SYVAC3, and can also be used independently. Parameter Distribution has the following subtypes: beta distribution; binomial distribution; constant distribution; lognormal distribution; loguniform distribution; normal distribution; piecewise uniform distribution; Triangular distribution; and uniform distribution. Some of these distributions can be altered by correlating two parameter distribution objects. This report provides complete specifications for parameter distributions, and also explains how to use them. It should meet the needs of casual users, reviewers, and programmers who wish to add their own subtypes. (author). 30 refs., 75 tabs., 56 figs.

Why Compositional Convection Cannot Explain Substellar Objects’ Sharp Spectral-type Transitions

Science.gov (United States)

Leconte, Jérémy

2018-02-01

As brown dwarfs and young giant planets cool down, they are known to experience various chemical transitions—for example, from {CO} rich L-dwarfs to methane rich T-dwarfs. Those chemical transitions are accompanied by spectral transitions with sharpness that cannot be explained by chemistry alone. In a series of articles, Tremblin et al. proposed that some of the yet-unexplained features associated with these transitions could be explained by a reduction of the thermal gradient near the photosphere. To explain, in turn, this more isothermal profile, they invoke the presence of an instability analogous to fingering convection—compositional convection—triggered by the change in mean molecular weight of the gas due to the chemical transitions mentioned above. In this Letter, we use existing arguments to demonstrate that any turbulent transport, if present, would in fact increase the thermal gradient. This misinterpretation comes from the fact that turbulence mixes/homogenizes entropy (potential temperature) instead of temperature. So, while increasing transport, turbulence in an initially stratified atmosphere actually carries energy downward, whether it is due to fingering or any other type of compositional convection. These processes therefore cannot explain the features observed along the aforementioned transitions by reducing the thermal gradient in the atmosphere of substellar objects. Understanding the microphysical and dynamical properties of clouds at these transitions thus probably remains our best way forward.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary

Gas distribution regulations (Nova Scotia)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-11-03

A consolidation of Nova Scotia`s gas distribution regulations made under subsection 42(1) of the Gas Distribution Act S.N.S. 1997, c4 - O.I.C. 1998-576 (November 10, 1998), N.S. Reg. 86/98 are presented. The consolidation is issued for reference purposes only, and while it has no official sanction, it is considered useful in providing an interpretation of the regulation, explaining franchise evaluation, the granting of franchises, and exemptions from application requirements. 1 tab.

Fragment ion distribution in charge-changing collisions of 2-MeV Si ions with C60

Science.gov (United States)

Itoh, A.; Tsuchida, H.; Miyabe, K.; Majima, T.; Nakai, Y.

2001-09-01

We have measured positive fragment ions produced in collisions of 2 MeV Siq+ (q=0, 1, 2, 4) projectiles with a C60 molecular target. The measurement was performed with a time-of-flight coincidence method between fragment ions and charge-selected outgoing projectiles. For all the charge-changing collisions investigated here, the mass distribution of small fragment ions C+n (n=1-12) can be approximated fairly well by a power-law form of n-λ as a function of the cluster size n. The power λ derived from each mass distribution is found to change strongly according to different charge-changing collisions. As a remarkable experimental finding, the values of λ(loss) in electron loss collisions are almost the same for the same final charge states k irrespective of the initial charge q, exhibiting a nearly perfect linear relationship with k. We also performed calculations of the projectile ionization on the basis of the semiclassical approximation and obtained inelastic energy deposition for individual collision processes. The estimated energy deposition is found to have a simple correlation with the experimentally determined values of λ(loss).

Evaluating online data of water quality changes in a pilot drinking water distribution system with multivariate data exploration methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Mustonen, Satu M; Tissari, Soile; Huikko, Laura; Kolehmainen, Mikko; Lehtola, Markku J; Hirvonen, Arja

2008-05-01

The distribution of drinking water generates soft deposits and biofilms in the pipelines of distribution systems. Disturbances in water distribution can detach these deposits and biofilms and thus deteriorate the water quality. We studied the effects of simulated pressure shocks on the water quality with online analysers. The study was conducted with copper and composite plastic pipelines in a pilot distribution system. The online data gathered during the study was evaluated with Self-Organising Map (SOM) and Sammon's mapping, which are useful methods in exploring large amounts of multivariate data. The objective was to test the usefulness of these methods in pinpointing the abnormal water quality changes in the online data. The pressure shocks increased temporarily the number of particles, turbidity and electrical conductivity. SOM and Sammon's mapping were able to separate these situations from the normal data and thus make those visible. Therefore these methods make it possible to detect abrupt changes in water quality and thus to react rapidly to any disturbances in the system. These methods are useful in developing alert systems and predictive applications connected to online monitoring.

Degree distribution in discrete case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Li-Na; Chen, Bin; Yan, Zai-Zai

2011-01-01

Vertex degree of many network models and real-life networks is limited to non-negative integer. By means of measure and integral, the relation of the degree distribution and the cumulative degree distribution in discrete case is analyzed. The degree distribution, obtained by the differential of its cumulative, is only suitable for continuous case or discrete case with constant degree change. When degree change is not a constant but proportional to degree itself, power-law degree distribution and its cumulative have the same exponent and the mean value is finite for power-law exponent greater than 1. -- Highlights: → Degree change is the crux for using the cumulative degree distribution method. → It suits for discrete case with constant degree change. → If degree change is proportional to degree, power-law degree distribution and its cumulative have the same exponent. → In addition, the mean value is finite for power-law exponent greater than 1.

Self-explaining roads

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Horst, A.R.A. van der; Kaptein, N.

1999-01-01

As a means to a sustainable safe traffic environment the concept of Self-Explaining Roads (SER) has been developed. The SER concept advocates a traffic environment that elicits safe driving behaviour simply by its design. In order to support safe driving behaviour and appropriate speed choice,

Distributed Leadership and Digital Collaborative Learning: A Synergistic Relationship?

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Alma; Jones, Michelle; Baba, Suria

2013-01-01

This paper explores the synergy between distributed leadership and digital collaborative learning. It argues that distributed leadership offers an important theoretical lens for understanding and explaining how digital collaboration is best supported and led. Drawing upon evidence from two online educational platforms, the paper explores the…

Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

2011-01-01

of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

Distributional changes in the western Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) in North America from 1967 to 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Macias-Duarte, Alberto; Conway, Courtney J.

2015-01-01

The quantification of shifts in bird distributions in response to climate change provides an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the processes that influence species persistence. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to document changes in the distributional limits of the western Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia hypugaea) from 1967 to 2008. We used logistic regression to model presence probability (p) as a function of longitude, latitude, and year. We modeled a linear trend in logit(p) through time with slope and intercept modeled as a double Fourier series of longitude and latitude. We found that the western Burrowing Owl has experienced an intriguing southward shift in the northern half of its breeding range, contrary to what is predicted by most species niche models and what has been observed for many other species in North America. The breeding range of the Burrowing Owl has been shrinking near its northern, western, and eastern edges. Our model detected the population declines that were observed in California and eastern Washington, in locations where maps based on route-specific estimating equations had predicted significant population increases. We suggest that the northern boundary of the breeding distribution of the western Burrowing Owl has contracted southward and the southern boundary of the species' breeding distribution has expanded southward into areas of northern Mexico that were formerly used only by wintering migrants.

The legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Christer; Hjerpe, Mattias; Parker, Charles; Linner, Bjorn-Ola

2012-01-01

Leadeship is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of the three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14-16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

Changes in Habitat Structure May Explain Decrease in Reintroduced Mohor Gazelle Population in the Guembeul Fauna Reserve, Senegal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eulalia Moreno

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Reintroduction is a widespread method for saving populations of endangered species from extinction. In spite of recent reviews, it is difficult to reach general conclusions about its value as a conservation tool, as authors are reluctant to publish unsuccessful results. The Mohor gazelle is a North African gazelle, extinct in the wild. Eight individuals were reintroduced in Senegal in 1984. The population grew progressively, albeit slowly, during the first 20 years after release, but then declined dramatically, until the population in 2009 was estimated at no more than 13–15 individuals. This study attempts to determine the likelihood of gazelle-habitat relationships to explain why the size of the gazelle population has diminished. Our results show that the Mohor gazelle in Guembeul is found in open habitats with less developed canopy where the grass is shorter, suggesting the possibility that changes in habitat structure have taken place during the time the gazelles have been in the Reserve, reducing the amount of suitable habitat. Reintroduction design usually concentrates on short-term factors that may affect survival of the released animals and their descendants (short-term achievement, while the key factors for assessing its success may be those that affect the long-term evolution of the population.

The role of body weight, fat distribution and weight change in ethnic differences in the 9-year incidence of hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Grootveld, Laura R; Van Valkengoed, Irene G M; Peters, Ron J G; Ujcic-Voortman, Joanne K; Brewster, Lizzy M; Stronks, Karien; Snijder, Marieke B

2014-05-01

To investigate the role of body composition (body weight, fat distribution and weight change over time) in ethnic differences in the incidence of hypertension in an ethnic Dutch, South Asian Surinamese and African Surinamese background population living in the Netherlands. We included 361 participants without hypertension at baseline (147 ethnic Dutch, 82 South Asian Surinamese, 132 African Surinamese), aged 35-60 years, in whom anthropometric measurements and blood pressures were measured at baseline and after mean 9 years of follow-up. Data were analysed using logistic regression analyses, with hypertension at follow up as a dependent variable. Body weight, fat distribution and weight gain were positively associated with the risk of developing hypertension; these associations did not statistically significantly differ between ethnic groups [odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence interval (95% CI) per SD: BMI 1.5 (1.2-2.0); waist circumference 1.5 (1.2-1.9); waist to hip ratio (WHR) 1.4 (1.1-1.9), weight gain of 1-2.9 kg/m 1.8 (0.9-3.8)]. As compared with Dutch, a higher incidence of hypertension was found among South Asian Surinamese [OR 2.6 (1.4-4.8)] and in particular among African Surinamese [OR 3.1 (1.76-5.30)]. Among South Asian Surinamese, adjustment for WHR attenuated the OR the most [OR 1.9 (1.0-3.7)]; among African Surinamese, the strongest effect was observed for adjustment by BMI and WHR simultaneously [OR 2.5 (1.4-4.4)]. The ethnic differences in the incidence of hypertension among a middle-aged group with a Dutch, South Asian Surinamese and African Surinamese background were partly explained by body composition. This suggests that other factors may be involved, including genetic factors or unidentified other determinants.

Income Inequality Explains Why Economic Growth Does Not Always Translate to an Increase in Happiness.

Science.gov (United States)

Oishi, Shigehiro; Kesebir, Selin

2015-10-01

One of the most puzzling social science findings in the past half century is the Easterlin paradox: Economic growth within a country does not always translate into an increase in happiness. We provide evidence that this paradox can be partly explained by income inequality. In two different data sets covering 34 countries, economic growth was not associated with increases in happiness when it was accompanied by growing income inequality. Earlier instances of the Easterlin paradox (i.e., economic growth not being associated with increasing happiness) can thus be explained by the frequent concurrence of economic growth and growing income inequality. These findings suggest that a more even distribution of growth in national wealth may be a precondition for raising nationwide happiness. © The Author(s) 2015.

Coin Tossing Explains the Activity of Opposing Microtubule Motors on Phagosomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanghavi, Paulomi; D'Souza, Ashwin; Rai, Ashim; Rai, Arpan; Padinhatheeri, Ranjith; Mallik, Roop

2018-05-07

How the opposing activity of kinesin and dynein motors generates polarized distribution of organelles inside cells is poorly understood and hotly debated [1, 2]. Possible explanations include stochastic mechanical competition [3, 4], coordinated regulation by motor-associated proteins [5-7], mechanical activation of motors [8], and lipid-induced organization [9]. Here, we address this question by using phagocytosed latex beads to generate early phagosomes (EPs) that move bidirectionally along microtubules (MTs) in an in vitro assay [9]. Dynein/kinesin activity on individual EPs is recorded as real-time force generation of the motors against an optical trap. Activity of one class of motors frequently coincides with, or is rapidly followed by opposite motors. This leads to frequent and rapid reversals of EPs in the trap. Remarkably, the choice between dynein and kinesin can be explained by the tossing of a coin. Opposing motors therefore appear to function stochastically and independently of each other, as also confirmed by observing no effect on kinesin function when dynein is inhibited on the EPs. A simple binomial probability calculation based on the geometry of EP-microtubule contact explains the observed activity of dynein and kinesin on phagosomes. This understanding of intracellular transport in terms of a hypothetical coin, if it holds true for other cargoes, provides a conceptual framework to explain the polarized localization of organelles inside cells. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Co-optimal distribution of leaf nitrogen and hydraulic conductance in plant canopies.

Science.gov (United States)

Peltoniemi, Mikko S; Duursma, Remko A; Medlyn, Belinda E

2012-05-01

Leaf properties vary significantly within plant canopies, due to the strong gradient in light availability through the canopy, and the need for plants to use resources efficiently. At high light, photosynthesis is maximized when leaves have a high nitrogen content and water supply, whereas at low light leaves have a lower requirement for both nitrogen and water. Studies of the distribution of leaf nitrogen (N) within canopies have shown that, if water supply is ignored, the optimal distribution is that where N is proportional to light, but that the gradient of N in real canopies is shallower than the optimal distribution. We extend this work by considering the optimal co-allocation of nitrogen and water supply within plant canopies. We developed a simple 'toy' two-leaf canopy model and optimized the distribution of N and hydraulic conductance (K) between the two leaves. We asked whether hydraulic constraints to water supply can explain shallow N gradients in canopies. We found that the optimal N distribution within plant canopies is proportional to the light distribution only if hydraulic conductance, K, is also optimally distributed. The optimal distribution of K is that where K and N are both proportional to incident light, such that optimal K is highest to the upper canopy. If the plant is constrained in its ability to construct higher K to sun-exposed leaves, the optimal N distribution does not follow the gradient in light within canopies, but instead follows a shallower gradient. We therefore hypothesize that measured deviations from the predicted optimal distribution of N could be explained by constraints on the distribution of K within canopies. Further empirical research is required on the extent to which plants can construct optimal K distributions, and whether shallow within-canopy N distributions can be explained by sub-optimal K distributions.

Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium?

Science.gov (United States)

Pitzer, Virginia E.; Bilcke, Joke; Heylen, Elisabeth; Crawford, Forrest W.; Callens, Michael; De Smet, Frank; Van Ranst, Marc; Zeller, Mark; Matthijnssens, Jelle

2015-01-01

Vaccination can place selective pressures on viral populations, leading to changes in the distribution of strains as viruses evolve to escape immunity from the vaccine. Vaccine-driven strain replacement is a major concern after nationwide rotavirus vaccine introductions. However, the distribution of the predominant rotavirus genotypes varies from year to year in the absence of vaccination, making it difficult to determine what changes can be attributed to the vaccines. To gain insight in the underlying dynamics driving changes in the rotavirus population, we fitted a hierarchy of mathematical models to national and local genotype-specific hospitalization data from Belgium, where large-scale vaccination was introduced in 2006. We estimated that natural- and vaccine-derived immunity was strongest against completely homotypic strains and weakest against fully heterotypic strains, with an intermediate immunity amongst partially heterotypic strains. The predominance of G2P[4] infections in Belgium after vaccine introduction can be explained by a combination of natural genotype fluctuations and weaker natural and vaccine-induced immunity against infection with strains heterotypic to the vaccine, in the absence of significant variation in strain-specific vaccine effectiveness against disease. However, the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis is predicted to remain low despite vaccine-driven changes in the distribution of genotypes. PMID:26687288

Bringing ideas back in to historical institutionalism to explain endogenous institutional change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carstensen, Martin B.; Schmidt, Vivien

The problem of how to theorize endogenous institutional change remains the ‘holy grail’ of historical institutionalism. Particularly important advances have been made within scholarship on gradual institutional transformation th at has deployed concepts like institutional ambiguity and interpreta...... in relation to two key issues: Interpretive battles over compliance and enforcement; and the role of ideas in forming, maintaining and changing the coalitions of actors that support a specific institutional setup....

Chance and stability stable distributions and their applications

CERN Document Server

Uchaikin, Vladimir V

1999-01-01

An introduction to the theory of stable distributions and their applications. It contains a modern outlook on the mathematical aspects of the theory. The authors explain numerous peculiarities of stable distributions and describe the principle concept of probability theory and function analysis. A significant part of the book is devoted to applications of stable distributions. Another notable feature is the material on the interconnection of stable laws with fractals, chaos and anomalous transport processes.

End plate marrow changes in the asymptomatic lumbosacral spine: frequency, distribution and correlation with age and degenerative changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Christine B.; Vande Berg, Bruno C.; Malghem, Jacques; Tavernier, Thierry; Cotten, Anne; Laredo, Jean-Denis; Vallee, Christian

2004-01-01

To investigate the frequency and distribution of end plate marrow signal intensity changes in an asymptomatic population and to correlate these findings with patient age and degenerative findings in the spine. MR imaging studies of the lumbosacral (LS) spine in 59 asymptomatic subjects were retrospectively reviewed by 2 musculoskeletal radiologists to determine the presence and location of fat-like and edema-like marrow signal changes about the end plates of the L1-2 through L5-S1 levels. The presence of degenerative changes in the spine was recorded as was patient age. Descriptive statistics were utilized to determine the frequency and associations of end plate findings and degenerative changes in the spine. Interobserver variability was determined by a kappa score. Binomial probability was used to predict the prevalence of the end plate changes in a similar subject population. The Fisher exact test was performed to determine statistical significance of the relationship of end plate changes with degenerative changes in the spine, superior versus inferior location about the disc and age of the patient population. Focal fat-like signal intensity adjacent to the vertebral end-plate was noted in 15 out of 59 subjects by both readers, and involved 38 and 36 out of 590 end plates by readers 1 and 2, respectively. Focal edema-like signal intensity adjacent to the vertebral end plate was noted in 8 out of 59 subjects by both readers and involved 11 and 10 out of 590 end plates by readers 1 and 2, respectively. Either fat or edema signal intensity occurred most often at the anterior (p<.05) aspects of the mid-lumbar spine and was seen in an older sub-population of the study (p<.05). End plate marrow signal intensity changes are present in the lumbar spine of some asymptomatic subjects with a characteristic location along the spine and in vertebral end plates. (orig.)

An investigation of changes in element distribution and chemical states during differentiation of embryonic stem cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, T.; Ide-Ektessabi, A.; Ishihara, R.; Tanigaki, M.

2004-01-01

Metallic elements and their organic compounds have dynamic regulatory functions in cells. In this study, we implemented a new approach to investigate the mechanism of differentiation of embryonic stem cells, by measuring and analyzing the change in distribution and chemical states of intracellular trace elements. We anticipate that trace metal elements and metalloproteins play important roles in the direction of differentiation, both as active centers, and as factors in the death of neural cells in neurodegenerative disorders. The aim of this study is to analyze the distribution and chemical states of trace elements during the process of differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells, and to understand how these factors relate to the differentiation process. Using the experimental results, some previously unexplained points are considered, namely (1) how the intracellular elements change during the process of neuronal differentiation, and (2) what the optimal conditions of such elements are for neuronal differentiation. The information obtained during this study is relevant to nervous system development and evolution

An investigation of changes in element distribution and chemical states during differentiation of embryonic stem cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sugimoto, T.; Ide-Ektessabi, A. E-mail: h51167@sakura.kudpc.kyoto-u.ac.jp; Ishihara, R.; Tanigaki, M

2004-07-01

Metallic elements and their organic compounds have dynamic regulatory functions in cells. In this study, we implemented a new approach to investigate the mechanism of differentiation of embryonic stem cells, by measuring and analyzing the change in distribution and chemical states of intracellular trace elements. We anticipate that trace metal elements and metalloproteins play important roles in the direction of differentiation, both as active centers, and as factors in the death of neural cells in neurodegenerative disorders. The aim of this study is to analyze the distribution and chemical states of trace elements during the process of differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells, and to understand how these factors relate to the differentiation process. Using the experimental results, some previously unexplained points are considered, namely (1) how the intracellular elements change during the process of neuronal differentiation, and (2) what the optimal conditions of such elements are for neuronal differentiation. The information obtained during this study is relevant to nervous system development and evolution.

Sensitivity study of tensions in distribution networks with respect to injected powers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tencio Alfaro, Ernie Fernando

2013-01-01

A study of the sensitivity of tension is submitted to small changes of active and reactive power of distributed generators (DG) of a 11 kV radial system of 8 circuits with 75 rods, in which 22 bars with DG and 38 bars with loads. The sensitivities are obtained for 6 load models 3 relations R / X of the lines interconnecting the distributed system, 3 equivalents of Thevenin and high load conditions with low generation and low load with high part of the DG and bars load. The study has obtained to determine which operating conditions of the system have presented the greatest tension sensitivities. A description of the theory of modeling loads and motor is developed for electrical power systems. The several ways to obtain the sensitivity matrix of tension are explained as central axis. (author) [es

Can neighborhoods explain racial/ethnic differences in adolescent inactivity?

Science.gov (United States)

Richmond, Tracy K; Field, Alison E; Rich, Michael

2007-01-01

To determine if neighborhoods and their attributes contribute to racial/ethnic disparities in adolescent inactivity. We undertook a cross-sectional analysis of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n = 17,007), a nationally representative school-based study in the United States. Stratifying by gender, we used multivariate linear regression and multi-level modeling to determine whether neighborhood of residence may partially explain racial/ethnic disparities in adolescent physical inactivity, defined as hours viewing television or videos/DVDs and/or playing computer/video games each week. Participants lived in largely segregated communities. Black and Hispanic adolescent girls reported higher levels of inactivity than White adolescent girls (21 vs. 15 vs. 13 hours/week, respectively, p violent crime in the neighborhood was associated with inactivity, despite the individual's perception of his/her neighborhood as safe not being predictive. Although inactivity varies by race/ethnicity and gender, only in Hispanic adolescent girls does neighborhood fully explain the differential use. Our findings suggest that approaches other than changing neighborhood characteristics are needed to eliminate racial/ethnic disparities in adolescent inactivity.

Retrieval of collision kernels from the change of droplet size distributions with linear inversion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Onishi, Ryo; Takahashi, Keiko [Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama Kanagawa 236-0001 (Japan); Matsuda, Keigo; Kurose, Ryoichi; Komori, Satoru [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Science, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)], E-mail: onishi.ryo@jamstec.go.jp, E-mail: matsuda.keigo@t03.mbox.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp, E-mail: takahasi@jamstec.go.jp, E-mail: kurose@mech.kyoto-u.ac.jp, E-mail: komori@mech.kyoto-u.ac.jp

2008-12-15

We have developed a new simple inversion scheme for retrieving collision kernels from the change of droplet size distribution due to collision growth. Three-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) of steady isotropic turbulence with colliding droplets are carried out in order to investigate the validity of the developed inversion scheme. In the DNS, air turbulence is calculated using a quasi-spectral method; droplet motions are tracked in a Lagrangian manner. The initial droplet size distribution is set to be equivalent to that obtained in a wind tunnel experiment. Collision kernels retrieved by the developed inversion scheme are compared to those obtained by the DNS. The comparison shows that the collision kernels can be retrieved within 15% error. This verifies the feasibility of retrieving collision kernels using the present inversion scheme.

Species Distribution modeling as a tool to unravel determinants of palm distribution in Thailand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Balslev, Henrik

2011-01-01

As a consequence of the decimation of the forest cover in Thailand from 50% to ca. 20 % since the 1950ies, it is difficult to gain insight in the drivers behind past, present and future distribution ranges of plant species. Species distribution modeling allows visualization of potential species...... distribution under specific sets of assumptions. In this study we used maximum entropy to map potential distributions of 103 species of palms for which more than 5 herbarium records exist. Palms constitute key-stone plant group from both an ecological, economical and conservation perspective. The models were......) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). All models performed well with AUC scores above 0.95. The predicted distribution ranges showed high suitability for palms in the southern region of Thailand. It also shows that spatial predictor variables are important in cases where historical processes may explain extant...

Are depressive persons capable of describing changes in their reactions without being able to explain them? A proof of a cybernetic hypothesis of depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Leibetseder, Max; Kamolz, Thomas

2004-01-01

Many studies on the autobiographical memory and the explanation of reasons for success and failure proved that persons suffering from major depression tend to overgeneralize. This study examines the hypothesis that changes of reactions caused by a depressive disorder can be described by the affected persons but not explained. Persons suffering from major depression and persons with posttraumatic stress disorder or disturbance of accommodation with depressive mood (= reactive form of a depressive disorder) were presented with a list of modalities (behaviour, emotional and physical reactions) characteristic for depression. They were asked to identify modalities applicable to them and to describe and explain them. Their responses were analysed using a content analysis and assigned to the categories description and explanation. Persons with a major depression tended to use explanations or evaluations rather than descriptions for their depression-related modalities. Those persons suffering from a reactive form of depressive disorder tended to prefer evaluations. These results support the assumption that states of depression cause general descriptions of depression-relevant behaviour. The specific characteristics that have been perceived confirm the general concepts, which however make the patient prone to the respective selective perceptions. Persons suffering from a reactive form of depressive mood cannot be assumed to have this tendency of self-affirmation. Their depressive state may be maintained by perseverating general pessimistic schemes. It must however be conceded that it was not possible to control the physical comorbidity methodically and to take its effects into consideration, even though only persons without serious illnesses were included in the samples. This study did not verify whether other clinical groups, like patients suffering from anxiety, show the same patterns of explaining and describing their problems. It should furthermore be reviewed how other

Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

2014-07-01

The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

Climate induced changes in biome distribution, NPP and hydrology for potential vegetation of the Upper Midwest U.S

Science.gov (United States)

Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.

2011-12-01

While much attention is focused on future impacts of climate change on ecosystems, much can be learned about the previous interactions of ecosystems with recent climate change. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation distributions (i.e. grasses, trees, and shrubs) and carbon and water cycling across the Upper Midwest USA from 1948-2007 using the Agro-IBIS dynamic vegetation model. We drove the model using a historical, gridded daily climate data set (temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at a spatial resolution of 5 min x 5 min. While trends in climate variables exhibited heterogeneous spatial patterns over the study period, the overall impact of climate change on vegetation productivity was positive. We observed total increases in net primary productivity (NPP) ranging from 20-150 g C m-2, based on linear regression analysis. We determined that increased summer relative humidity, increased annual precipitation and decreased mean maximum summer temperatures were key variables contributing to these positive trends, likely through a reduction in soil moisture stress (e.g., increased available water) and heat stress. Model simulations also illustrated an increase in annual drainage throughout the region of 20-140 mm yr-1, driven by substantial increases in annual precipitation. Evapotranspiration had a highly variable spatial trend over the 60-year period, with total change over the study period ranging between -100 and +100 mm yr-1. We also analyzed potential changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions at the biome level, but hypothesize that the model may be unable to adequately capture competitive interactions among PFTs as well as the dynamics between upper and lower canopies consisting of trees, grasses and shrubs. An analysis of the bioclimatic envelopes for PFTs common to the region revealed no significant change to the boreal conifer tree climatic domain over the study

Data Provenance for Agent-Based Models in a Distributed Memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delmar B. Davis

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Agent-Based Models (ABMs assist with studying emergent collective behavior of individual entities in social, biological, economic, network, and physical systems. Data provenance can support ABM by explaining individual agent behavior. However, there is no provenance support for ABMs in a distributed setting. The Multi-Agent Spatial Simulation (MASS library provides a framework for simulating ABMs at fine granularity, where agents and spatial data are shared application resources in a distributed memory. We introduce a novel approach to capture ABM provenance in a distributed memory, called ProvMASS. We evaluate our technique with traditional data provenance queries and performance measures. Our results indicate that a configurable approach can capture provenance that explains coordination of distributed shared resources, simulation logic, and agent behavior while limiting performance overhead. We also show the ability to support practical analyses (e.g., agent tracking and storage requirements for different capture configurations.

Biogeography and ecology of Cetraria aculeata, a widely distributed lichen with a bipolar distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Printzen

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Ecological and historical biogeography of lichens have rarely been studied in a concerted effort, but both aspects have to be taken into consideration when explaining the distributional patterns of species. This review summarizes, partly preliminary, results from a series of studies on phylogeography, ecophysiology and symbiotic interactions of the lichen Cetraria aculeata. This species is not only widespread but also occupies a very wide ecological niche. Evidence suggests that Cetraria aculeata has evolved and diversified in the Northern Hemisphere and colonised the Southern Hemisphere from there. Genetic isolation of populations indicates the absence of ongoing long range dispersal and genetic exchange between geographically isolated populations. We observe a hitherto unrecognized genetic diversity that may indicate ecotypic differentiation and speciation processes. Mediterranean and Polar populations differ not only genetically, but also in ecophysiological properties. Ongoing common garden experiments will have to show whether genetically fixed adaptation or acclimation is responsible for these differences. The genetic structure of the photobiont is best explained by climatic differences between localities, but co-dispersal with the mycobiont plays an important role as well. Taken together, these results indicate that a photobiont switch in the past enabled C. aculeata to widen its ecological niche, with subsequent genetic isolation of populations. Photobiont switches may play a crucial role in speciation processes of lichens. A combination of ecophysiological and phylogeographic studies with experimental approaches is necessary to better understand the reaction of lichens to changing environmental conditions.

A new ‘superassemblage’ model explaining proximal-to-distal and lateral facies changes in fluvial environments, based on the Proterozoic Sanjauli Formation (Lesser Himalaya, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ananya Mukhopadhyay

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Facies analysis of fluvial deposits of the Proterozoic Sanjauli Formation in the Lesser Himalaya was combined with an architectural analysis. On this basis, a model was developed that may be applied to other fluvial systems as well, whether old or recent. The new model, which might be considered as an assemblage of previous models, explains lateral variations in architecture and facies but is not in all respects consistent with the standard fluvial models. The Sanjauli fluvial model is unique in that it deals with lateral facies variations due to shifts of the base-level along with fluctuations in accommodation space owing to changes in palaeoclimate.

Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes: first results

Science.gov (United States)

Gordov, Evgeny; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Okladinikov, Igor; Prusevich, Alex; Titov, Alexander

2016-04-01

Description and first results of the cooperative project "Development of Distributed Research Center for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes" recently started by SCERT IMCES and ESRC UNH are reported. The project is aimed at development of hardware and software platform prototype of Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting regional climatic and environmental changes over the areas of mutual interest and demonstration the benefits of such collaboration that complements skills and regional knowledge across the northern extratropics. In the framework of the project, innovative approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platforms of two U.S. and Russian leading institutions involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research centers focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies by international research teams. DRC under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed by the cooperating teams' information-computational systems RIMS (http://rims.unh.edu) and CLIMATE(http://climate.scert.ru/), which are widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The project includes several major directions of research (Tasks) listed below. 1. Development of architecture and defining major hardware and software components of DRC for monitoring and projecting of regional environmental changes. 2. Development of an information database and computing software suite for distributed processing and analysis of large geospatial data hosted at ESRC and IMCES SB RAS. 3. Development of geoportal, thematic web client and web services providing international research teams with an access to "cloud" computing resources at DRC; two options will be executed: access through a basic graphical web browser and