Football experts versus sports economists: Whose forecasts are better?

Science.gov (United States)

Frick, Bernd; Wicker, Pamela

2016-08-01

Given the uncertainty of outcome in sport, predicting the outcome of sporting contests is a major topic in sport sciences. This study examines the accuracy of expert predictions in the German Bundesliga and compares their predictions to those of sports economists. Prior to the start of each season, a set of distinguished experts (head coaches and players) express their subjective evaluations of the teams in school grades. While experts may be driven by irrational sentiments and may therefore systematically over- or underestimate specific teams, sports economists use observable characteristics to predict season outcomes. The latter typically use team wage bills given the positive pay-performance relationship as well as other factors (average team age, tenure, appearances on national team, and attendance). Using data from 15 consecutive Bundesliga seasons, the predictive accuracy of expert evaluations and sports economists is analysed. The results of separate estimations show that relative grade and relative wage bill significantly affect relative points, while age, tenure, appearances, and attendance are insignificant. In a joint model, relative grade and relative wage bill are still statistically significant, suggesting that the two types of predictions are complements rather than substitutes. Consequently, football experts and sports economists seem to rely on completely different sources of information when making their predictions.

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy and expert systems for power quality analysis and prediction of abnormal operation

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Wael Refaat Anis

The present research involves the development of several fuzzy expert systems for power quality analysis and diagnosis. Intelligent systems for the prediction of abnormal system operation were also developed. The performance of all intelligent modules developed was either enhanced or completely produced through adaptive fuzzy learning techniques. Neuro-fuzzy learning is the main adaptive technique utilized. The work presents a novel approach to the interpretation of power quality from the perspective of the continuous operation of a single system. The research includes an extensive literature review pertaining to the applications of intelligent systems to power quality analysis. Basic definitions and signature events related to power quality are introduced. In addition, detailed discussions of various artificial intelligence paradigms as well as wavelet theory are included. A fuzzy-based intelligent system capable of identifying normal from abnormal operation for a given system was developed. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy learning was applied to enhance its performance. A group of fuzzy expert systems that could perform full operational diagnosis were also developed successfully. The developed systems were applied to the operational diagnosis of 3-phase induction motors and rectifier bridges. A novel approach for learning power quality waveforms and trends was developed. The technique, which is adaptive neuro fuzzy-based, learned, compressed, and stored the waveform data. The new technique was successfully tested using a wide variety of power quality signature waveforms, and using real site data. The trend-learning technique was incorporated into a fuzzy expert system that was designed to predict abnormal operation of a monitored system. The intelligent system learns and stores, in compressed format, trends leading to abnormal operation. The system then compares incoming data to the retained trends continuously. If the incoming data matches any of the learned trends, an

Does expert perceptual anticipation transfer to a dissimilar domain?

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Sean; McLaren, Michelle; Appleby, Brendyn; Rosalie, Simon M

2015-06-01

The purpose of this experiment was to extend theoretical understanding of transfer of learning by investigating whether expert perceptual anticipation skill transfers to a dissimilar domain. The capability of expert and near-expert rugby players as well as novices to anticipate skill type within rugby (learning sport) was first examined using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Participants watched video footage of an opponent performing rugby skill types that were temporally occluded at different points in the opponent's action and then made a written prediction. Thereafter, the capability of participants to transfer their anticipation skill to predict pitch type in baseball (transfer sport) was examined. Participants watched video footage of a pitcher throwing different pitch types that were temporally occluded and made a written prediction. Results indicated that expert and near-expert rugby players anticipated significantly better than novices across all occlusion conditions. However, none of the skill groups were able to transfer anticipation skill to predict pitch type in baseball. The findings of this paper, along with existing literature, support the theoretical prediction that transfer of perceptual anticipation is expertise dependent and restricted to similar domains. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

2013-01-01

We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD)....

A study on expert system applications for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huh, Young Hwan; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kang, Soon Ju; Park, Nam Seok; Ryu, Chan Ho; Choi, In Seon; Chung, Young Moo; Chung, Tae Eon; Yim, Chang Jae; Lee, Yoon Sang.

1990-01-01

The objectives of this research are 1) to develop an expert system which can automatically evaluate eddy current (EC) signal during an eddy current test (ECT) of SG U tube inspection, 2) to build an effective data base management system for ECT data. By this expert system the reliability in EC signal evaluation can be improved, and the required man-power can be reduced. And this expert system can supply a stable ECT and contribute to a safe operation of the nuclear power plant. (author)

Adaptability of expert visual anticipation in baseball batting.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Sean; Fadde, Peter J; Harbaugh, Allen G

2017-09-01

By manipulating stimulus variation in terms of opponent pitcher actions, this study investigated the capability of expert (n = 30) and near-expert (n = 95) professional baseball batters to adapt anticipation skill when using the video simulation temporal occlusion paradigm. Participants watched in-game footage of two pitchers, one after the other, that was temporally occluded at ball release and various points during ball flight. They were required to make a written prediction of pitch types and locations. Per cent accuracy was calculated for pitch type, for pitch location, and for type and location combined. Results indicated that experts and near-experts could adapt their anticipation to predict above guessing level across both pitchers, but adaptation to the left-handed pitcher was poorer than the right-handed pitcher. Small-to-moderate effect sizes were found in terms of superior adaptation by experts over near-experts at the ball release and early ball flight occlusion conditions. The findings of this study extend theoretical and applied knowledge of expertise in striking sports. Practical application of the instruments and findings are discussed in terms of applied researchers, practitioners and high-performance staff in professional sporting organisations.

Justice blocks and predictability of U.S. Supreme Court votes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roger Guimerà

Full Text Available Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a justice's vote based on the other justices' votes in the same case. For our predictions, we use models and methods that have been developed to uncover hidden associations between actors in complex social networks. We show that these methods are more accurate at predicting justice's votes than forecasts made by legal experts and by algorithms that take into consideration the content of the cases. We argue that, within our framework, high predictability is a quantitative proxy for stable justice (and case blocks, which probably reflect stable a priori attitudes toward the law. We find that U.S. Supreme Court justice votes are more predictable than one would expect from an ideal court composed of perfectly independent justices. Deviations from ideal behavior are most apparent in divided 5-4 decisions, where justice blocks seem to be most stable. Moreover, we find evidence that justice predictability decreased during the 50-year period spanning from the Warren Court to the Rehnquist Court, and that aggregate court predictability has been significantly lower during Democratic presidencies. More broadly, our results show that it is possible to use methods developed for the analysis of complex social networks to quantitatively investigate historical questions related to political decision-making.

Reduced Antiplatelet Effect of Aspirin Does Not Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, Sanne Bøjet; Grove, Erik Lerkevang; Neergaard-Petersen, Søs; Würtz, Morten; Hvas, Anne-Mette; Kristensen, Steen Dalby

2017-08-05

Increased platelet aggregation during antiplatelet therapy may predict cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease. The majority of these patients receive aspirin monotherapy. We aimed to investigate whether high platelet-aggregation levels predict cardiovascular events in stable coronary artery disease patients treated with aspirin. We included 900 stable coronary artery disease patients with either previous myocardial infarction, type 2 diabetes mellitus, or both. All patients received single antithrombotic therapy with 75 mg aspirin daily. Platelet aggregation was evaluated 1 hour after aspirin intake using the VerifyNow Aspirin Assay (Accriva Diagnostics) and Multiplate Analyzer (Roche; agonists: arachidonic acid and collagen). Adherence to aspirin was confirmed by serum thromboxane B 2 . The primary end point was the composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death. At 3-year follow-up, 78 primary end points were registered. The primary end point did not occur more frequently in patients with high platelet-aggregation levels (first versus fourth quartile) assessed by VerifyNow (hazard ratio: 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-1.1], P =0.08) or Multiplate using arachidonic acid (hazard ratio: 1.0 [95% CI, 0.5-2.1], P =0.92) or collagen (hazard ratio: 1.4 [95% CI, 0.7-2.8], P =0.38). Similar results were found for the composite secondary end point (nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, stent thrombosis, and all-cause death) and the single end points. Thromboxane B 2 levels did not predict any end points. Renal insufficiency was the only clinical risk factor predicting the primary and secondary end points. This study is the largest to investigate platelet aggregation in stable coronary artery disease patients receiving aspirin as single antithrombotic therapy. We found that high platelet-aggregation levels did not predict cardiovascular events. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart

A nomogram for predicting complications in patients with solid tumours and seemingly stable febrile neutropenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Paula Jiménez; Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; García, Ignacio Matos; Marcos, Rosana; Castañón, Eduardo; Antonio, Maite; Font, Carme; Biosca, Mercè; Blasco, Ana; Lozano, Rebeca; Ramchandani, Avinash; Beato, Carmen; de Castro, Eva Martínez; Espinosa, Javier; Martínez-García, Jerónimo; Ghanem, Ismael; Cubero, Jorge Hernando; Manrique, Isabel Aragón; Navalón, Francisco García; Sevillano, Elena; Manzano, Aránzazu; Virizuela, Juan; Garrido, Marcelo; Mondéjar, Rebeca; Arcusa, María Ángeles; Bonilla, Yaiza; Pérez, Quionia; Gallardo, Elena; Del Carmen Soriano, Maria; Cardona, Mercè; Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Cruz, Juan Jesús; Ayala, Francisco

2016-05-24

We sought to develop and externally validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to individually predict the development of serious complications in seemingly stable adult patients with solid tumours and episodes of febrile neutropenia (FN). The data from the FINITE study (n=1133) and University of Salamanca Hospital (USH) FN registry (n=296) were used to develop and validate this tool. The main eligibility criterion was the presence of apparent clinical stability, defined as events without acute organ dysfunction, abnormal vital signs, or major infections. Discriminatory ability was measured as the concordance index and stratification into risk groups. The rate of infection-related complications in the FINITE and USH series was 13.4% and 18.6%, respectively. The nomogram used the following covariates: Eastern Cooperative Group (ECOG) Performance Status ⩾2, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic cardiovascular disease, mucositis of grade ⩾2 (National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria), monocytes 0.1). The concordance index was 0.855 and 0.831 in each series. Risk group stratification revealed a significant distinction in the proportion of complications. With a ⩾116-point cutoff, the nomogram yielded the following prognostic indices in the USH registry validation series: 66% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 3.88 positive likelihood ratio, 48% positive predictive value, and 91% negative predictive value. We have developed and externally validated a nomogram and web calculator to predict serious complications that can potentially impact decision-making in patients with seemingly stable FN.

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijay Neupane

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.

The recourse to experts. Political reasons and uses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumoulin, L.; La Branche, St.; Robert, C.; Warin, Ph.

2005-01-01

The need of reliable knowledge is necessary to draw adequate public policies. The role of experts is more and more important in any field, the expert brings his own specialized knowledge to the political world, he can define looming threads, can predict catastrophes, can highlight the long-term responsibility of particular choices but he can also contribute to the drawing of adequate solutions. The limit of expert's power lays in his ability to make a synthesis of plural knowledge. This book presents the role and weight of experts in our society from justice to economics via natural risks. A lot of examples of public policies based on expert valuation is given, in particular the recourse to experts of the European Union when it was to deal with the upgrading of nuclear safety standard in eastern countries. (A.C.)

Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

Science.gov (United States)

Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

1994-01-01

We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

GOTRES: an expert system for fault detection and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, D.T.; Modarres, M.

1989-01-01

This paper describes a deep-knowledge expert system shell for diagnosing faults in process operations. The expert program shell is called GOTRES (GOal TRee Expert System) and uses a goal tree-success tree deep-knowledge structure to model its knowledge-base. To demonstrate GOTRES, we have built an on-line fault diagnosis expert system for an experimental nuclear reactor facility using this shell. The expert system is capable of diagnosing fault conditions using system goal tree as well as utilizing accumulated operating knowledge to predict plant causal and temporal behaviours. The GOTRES shell has also been used for root-cause detection and analysis in a nuclear plant. (author)

Development of a Safety Management Web Tool for Horse Stables.

Science.gov (United States)

Leppälä, Jarkko; Kolstrup, Christina Lunner; Pinzke, Stefan; Rautiainen, Risto; Saastamoinen, Markku; Särkijärvi, Susanna

2015-11-12

Managing a horse stable involves risks, which can have serious consequences for the stable, employees, clients, visitors and horses. Existing industrial or farm production risk management tools are not directly applicable to horse stables and they need to be adapted for use by managers of different types of stables. As a part of the InnoEquine project, an innovative web tool, InnoHorse, was developed to support horse stable managers in business, safety, pasture and manure management. A literature review, empirical horse stable case studies, expert panel workshops and stakeholder interviews were carried out to support the design. The InnoHorse web tool includes a safety section containing a horse stable safety map, stable safety checklists, and examples of good practices in stable safety, horse handling and rescue planning. This new horse stable safety management tool can also help in organizing work processes in horse stables in general.

Stable Boundary Layer Issues

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steeneveld, G.J.

2012-01-01

Understanding and prediction of the stable atmospheric boundary layer is a challenging task. Many physical processes are relevant in the stable boundary layer, i.e. turbulence, radiation, land surface coupling, orographic turbulent and gravity wave drag, and land surface heterogeneity. The

An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, David

1990-01-01

A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthews, L.J.; Burggraf, L.K.; Reece, W.J.

1998-01-01

A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling

Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICHERSU Iulian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

Computer-assisted expert case definition in electronic health records.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Alexander M; Zhou, Xiaofeng; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Weiss, Lisa S; Shen, Rongjun; Sobel, Rachel E; Bate, Andrew; Reynolds, Robert F

2016-02-01

To describe how computer-assisted presentation of case data can lead experts to infer machine-implementable rules for case definition in electronic health records. As an illustration the technique has been applied to obtain a definition of acute liver dysfunction (ALD) in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The technique consists of repeatedly sampling new batches of case candidates from an enriched pool of persons meeting presumed minimal inclusion criteria, classifying the candidates by a machine-implementable candidate rule and by a human expert, and then updating the rule so that it captures new distinctions introduced by the expert. Iteration continues until an update results in an acceptably small number of changes to form a final case definition. The technique was applied to structured data and terms derived by natural language processing from text records in 29,336 adults with IBD. Over three rounds the technique led to rules with increasing predictive value, as the experts identified exceptions, and increasing sensitivity, as the experts identified missing inclusion criteria. In the final rule inclusion and exclusion terms were often keyed to an ALD onset date. When compared against clinical review in an independent test round, the derived final case definition had a sensitivity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 79%. An iterative technique of machine-supported expert review can yield a case definition that accommodates available data, incorporates pre-existing medical knowledge, is transparent and is open to continuous improvement. The expert updates to rules may be informative in themselves. In this limited setting, the final case definition for ALD performed better than previous, published attempts using expert definitions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Belief in nuclear energy: Attitudes and opinions of Dutch nuclear experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arts, F.; Klaassen, R.; De Ruiter, W.

1994-01-01

The public opinion in the Netherlands about nuclear energy has been rather stable during recent years. Since the Chernobyl accident roughly 60% of the Dutch population is opposed to extension of the use of nuclear energy. Nuclear experts play an important role in the formation of public opinion about nuclear energy. In this paper the social and cultural background of 87 Dutch nuclear energy experts is analyzed with respect to religious belief, age, life style, membership of a political party, birth order and career pattern. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 16 refs

Stable Boundary Layer Issues

OpenAIRE

Steeneveld, G.J.

2012-01-01

Understanding and prediction of the stable atmospheric boundary layer is a challenging task. Many physical processes are relevant in the stable boundary layer, i.e. turbulence, radiation, land surface coupling, orographic turbulent and gravity wave drag, and land surface heterogeneity. The development of robust stable boundary layer parameterizations for use in NWP and climate models is hampered by the multiplicity of processes and their unknown interactions. As a result, these models suffer ...

From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendelson, Danuta

2012-12-01

In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilra, Aditya; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-11-27

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically.

A computerized expert system for mammography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, V.P.; Dines, K.A.; Bassett, L.W.

1988-01-01

The authors have developed a computer-based expert system to aid in the interpretation of mammograms, breast sonograms, and clinical findings. The radiologist enters clinical and image data into the artificial intelligence system and receives a prediction of the etiology of lesions seen on breast imaging studies. This prototype interactive system has undergone preliminary clinical testing and evaluation. Ultimately, a more refined and complex system will be of value in mammography education, for general radiologists without ready access to mammography experts, for paramedical personnel, and for all mammographers in need of a breast imaging database and reporting systems

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

An expert system for spare parts inventory control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, K.Y.; Chen, P.Y.C.; Okrent, D.

1987-01-01

This paper describes an expert system which can handle spare part requirements not only in corrective maintenance (CM) or preventive maintenance (PM), but also when failure rates of components or parts are updated by new data or by predictive maintenance (PDM), and which can also decide optimum stocking level of each spare part. This expert system provides a maintenance (or inventory) manager with an improved basis for decision making in the maintenance related to spare parts. The definitions of PM and PDM from NUREG-1212 (USNRC 1986) are used herein. This expert system used Intellignece/Compiler (Intelligence Ware, 1986) as a language/tool in the IBM-PC

Expert Game experiment predicts emergence of trust in professional communication networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Bendtsen, Kristian Moss; Uekermann, Florian; Haerter, Jan O

2016-10-25

Strong social capital is increasingly recognized as an organizational advantage. Better knowledge sharing and reduced transaction costs increase work efficiency. To mimic the formation of the associated communication network, we propose the Expert Game, where each individual must find a specific expert and receive her help. Participants act in an impersonal environment and under time constraints that provide short-term incentives for noncooperative behavior. Despite these constraints, we observe cooperation between individuals and the self-organization of a sustained trust network, which facilitates efficient communication channels with increased information flow. We build a behavioral model that explains the experimental dynamics. Analysis of the model reveals an exploitation protection mechanism and measurable social capital, which quantitatively describe the economic utility of trust.

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Information encryption in the expert management of strategic uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Frey, Seth; Williams, Paul L.; Albino, Dominic K.

2016-01-01

Strategic agents in incomplete-information environments have a conflicted relationship with uncertainty: it can keep them unpredictable to their opponents, but it must also be overcome to predict the actions of those opponents. We use a multivariate generalization of information theory to characterize the information processing behavior of strategic reasoning experts. We compare expert and novice poker players --- "sharks" and "fish" --- over 1.75 million hands of online two-player No-Limit T...

Deep nets vs expert designed features in medical physics: An IMRT QA case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Interian, Yannet; Rideout, Vincent; Kearney, Vasant P; Gennatas, Efstathios; Morin, Olivier; Cheung, Joey; Solberg, Timothy; Valdes, Gilmer

2018-03-30

The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of Deep Neural Networks against a technique designed by domain experts in the prediction of gamma passing rates for Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Quality Assurance (IMRT QA). A total of 498 IMRT plans across all treatment sites were planned in Eclipse version 11 and delivered using a dynamic sliding window technique on Clinac iX or TrueBeam Linacs. Measurements were performed using a commercial 2D diode array, and passing rates for 3%/3 mm local dose/distance-to-agreement (DTA) were recorded. Separately, fluence maps calculated for each plan were used as inputs to a convolution neural network (CNN). The CNNs were trained to predict IMRT QA gamma passing rates using TensorFlow and Keras. A set of model architectures, inspired by the convolutional blocks of the VGG-16 ImageNet model, were constructed and implemented. Synthetic data, created by rotating and translating the fluence maps during training, was created to boost the performance of the CNNs. Dropout, batch normalization, and data augmentation were utilized to help train the model. The performance of the CNNs was compared to a generalized Poisson regression model, previously developed for this application, which used 78 expert designed features. Deep Neural Networks without domain knowledge achieved comparable performance to a baseline system designed by domain experts in the prediction of 3%/3 mm Local gamma passing rates. An ensemble of neural nets resulted in a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.70 ± 0.05 and the domain expert model resulted in a 0.74 ± 0.06. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with transfer learning can predict IMRT QA passing rates by automatically designing features from the fluence maps without human expert supervision. Predictions from CNNs are comparable to a system carefully designed by physicist experts. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Application of Machine-Learning Models to Predict Tacrolimus Stable Dose in Renal Transplant Recipients

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jie; Liu, Rong; Zhang, Yue-Li; Liu, Mou-Ze; Hu, Yong-Fang; Shao, Ming-Jie; Zhu, Li-Jun; Xin, Hua-Wen; Feng, Gui-Wen; Shang, Wen-Jun; Meng, Xiang-Guang; Zhang, Li-Rong; Ming, Ying-Zi; Zhang, Wei

2017-02-01

Tacrolimus has a narrow therapeutic window and considerable variability in clinical use. Our goal was to compare the performance of multiple linear regression (MLR) and eight machine learning techniques in pharmacogenetic algorithm-based prediction of tacrolimus stable dose (TSD) in a large Chinese cohort. A total of 1,045 renal transplant patients were recruited, 80% of which were randomly selected as the “derivation cohort” to develop dose-prediction algorithm, while the remaining 20% constituted the “validation cohort” to test the final selected algorithm. MLR, artificial neural network (ANN), regression tree (RT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), boosted regression tree (BRT), support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), lasso regression (LAR) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) were applied and their performances were compared in this work. Among all the machine learning models, RT performed best in both derivation [0.71 (0.67-0.76)] and validation cohorts [0.73 (0.63-0.82)]. In addition, the ideal rate of RT was 4% higher than that of MLR. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use machine learning models to predict TSD, which will further facilitate personalized medicine in tacrolimus administration in the future.

Predictive Model for Anxiety and Depression in Spanish Patients with Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

González-Gutiérrez, María Victoria; Guerrero Velázquez, José; Morales García, Concepción; Casas Maldonado, Francisco; Gómez Jiménez, Francisco Javier; González Vargas, Francisco

2016-03-01

The association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and anxiety and depression is not yet completely characterized, and differences between countries may exist. We used a predictive model to assess this association in a Spanish population. Prospective transversal descriptive study of 204 patients with stable COPD. Concomitant anxiety or depression were diagnosed by psychiatric assessment, using the diagnostic criteria of the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10). Sociodemographic, clinical and lung function parameters were analyzed. In total, 36% of stable COPD patients had psychiatric comorbidities, but 76% were unaware of their diagnosis. Nineteen percent had a pure anxiety disorder, 9.8% had isolated depression, and 7.3% had a mixed anxiety-depression disorder. Predictive variables in the multivariate analysis were younger age, higher educational level, lack of home support, higher BODE index, and greater number of exacerbations. The ROC curve of the model had an AUC of 0.765 (P<0.001). In COPD, concomitant psychiatric disorders are significantly associated with sociodemographic factors. Anxiety disorders are more common than depression. Patients with more severe COPD, according to BODE, younger patients and those with a higher educational level have a greater risk of being diagnosed with anxiety or depression in a structured psychiatric interview. In our population, most patients with psychiatric comorbidities remain unidentified. Copyright © 2015 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

Expert System Diagnosis of Cataract Eyes Using Fuzzy Mamdani Method

Science.gov (United States)

Santosa, I.; Romla, L.; Herawati, S.

2018-01-01

Cataracts are eye diseases characterized by cloudy or opacity of the lens of the eye by changing the colour of black into grey-white which slowly continues to grow and develop without feeling pain and pain that can cause blindness in human vision. Therefore, researchers make an expert system of cataract eye disease diagnosis by using Fuzzy Mamdani and how to care. The fuzzy method can convert the crisp value to linguistic value by fuzzification and includes in the rule. So this system produces an application program that can help the public in knowing cataract eye disease and how to care based on the symptoms suffered. From the results of the design implementation and testing of expert system applications to diagnose eye disease cataracts, it can be concluded that from a trial of 50 cases of data, obtained test results accuracy between system predictions with expert predictions obtained a value of 78% truth.

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Neural network-based expert system for severe accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klopp, G.T.; Silverman, E.B.

1992-01-01

This paper presents the results of the second phase of a three-phase Severe Accident Management expert system program underway at Commonwealth Edison Company (CECo). Phase I successfully demonstrated the feasibility of Artificial Neural Networks to support several of the objectives of severe accident management. Simulated accident scenarios were generated by the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) code currently in use by CECo as part of their Individual Plant Evaluations (IPE)/Accident Management Program. The primary objectives of the second phase were to develop and demonstrate four capabilities of neural networks with respect to nuclear power plant severe accident monitoring and prediction. The results of this work would form the foundation of a demonstration system which included expert system performance features. These capabilities included the ability to: (1) Predict the time available prior to support plate (and reactor vessel) failure; (2) Calculate the time remaining until recovery actions were too late to prevent core damage; (3) Predict future parameter values of each of the MAAP parameter variables; and (4) Detect simulated sensor failure and provide best-value estimates for further processing in the presence of a sensor failure. A variety of accident scenarios for the Zion and Dresden plants were used to train and test the neural network expert system. These included large and small break LOCAs as well as a range of transient events. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

A deep learning approach for predicting the quality of online health expert question-answering services.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Ze; Zhang, Zhan; Yang, Haiqin; Chen, Qing; Zuo, Decheng

2017-07-01

Recently, online health expert question-answering (HQA) services (systems) have attracted more and more health consumers to ask health-related questions everywhere at any time due to the convenience and effectiveness. However, the quality of answers in existing HQA systems varies in different situations. It is significant to provide effective tools to automatically determine the quality of the answers. Two main characteristics in HQA systems raise the difficulties of classification: (1) physicians' answers in an HQA system are usually written in short text, which yields the data sparsity issue; (2) HQA systems apply the quality control mechanism, which refrains the wisdom of crowd. The important information, such as the best answer and the number of users' votes, is missing. To tackle these issues, we prepare the first HQA research data set labeled by three medical experts in 90days and formulate the problem of predicting the quality of answers in the system as a classification task. We not only incorporate the standard textual feature of answers, but also introduce a set of unique non-textual features, i.e., the popular used surface linguistic features and the novel social features, from other modalities. A multimodal deep belief network (DBN)-based learning framework is then proposed to learn the high-level hidden semantic representations of answers from both textual features and non-textual features while the learned joint representation is fed into popular classifiers to determine the quality of answers. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of including the non-textual features and the proposed multimodal deep learning framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert systems applied to two problems in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, K.Y.

1988-01-01

This dissertation describes two prototype expert systems applied to two problems in nuclear power plants. One problem is spare parts inventory control, and the other one is radionuclide release from containment during severe accident. The expert system for spare parts inventory control can handle spare parts requirements not only in corrective, preventive, or predictive maintenance, but also when failure rates of components or parts are updated by new data. Costs and benefits of spare parts inventory acquisition are evaluated with qualitative attributes such as spare part availability to provide the inventory manager with an improved basis for decision making. The expert system is implemented with Intelligence/Compiler on an IBM-AT. The other expert system for radionuclide release from containment can estimate magnitude, type, location, and time of release of radioactive materials from containment during a severe accident nearly on line, based on the actual measured physical parameters such as temperature and pressure inside the containment. The expert system has a function to check the validation of sensor data. The expert system is implemented with KEE on a Symbolics LISP machine

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

Science.gov (United States)

Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

2011-01-01

REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

Network approaches for expert decisions in sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Glöckner, Andreas; Heinen, Thomas; Johnson, Joseph G; Raab, Markus

2012-04-01

This paper focuses on a model comparison to explain choices based on gaze behavior via simulation procedures. We tested two classes of models, a parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) artificial neuronal network model and an accumulator model in a handball decision-making task from a lab experiment. Both models predict action in an option-generation task in which options can be chosen from the perspective of a playmaker in handball (i.e., passing to another player or shooting at the goal). Model simulations are based on a dataset of generated options together with gaze behavior measurements from 74 expert handball players for 22 pieces of video footage. We implemented both classes of models as deterministic vs. probabilistic models including and excluding fitted parameters. Results indicated that both classes of models can fit and predict participants' initially generated options based on gaze behavior data, and that overall, the classes of models performed about equally well. Early fixations were thereby particularly predictive for choices. We conclude that the analyses of complex environments via network approaches can be successfully applied to the field of experts' decision making in sports and provide perspectives for further theoretical developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expert systems for structure elucidation of organic molecules by spectral methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elyashberg, Mikhail E

1999-01-01

The state-of-the-art of the investigations aimed at creating expert systems for establishing the structure of organic molecules from IR, 1 H and 13 C NMR spectra is analysed. Computer methods used for identification of molecular fragments, generation of their structure and spectra prediction are considered. Principles of the creation of modern expert systems and general strategy of solving structural problems are discussed. The bibliography includes 174 references.

Expert ease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-04-01

Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

Expert System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

2016-01-01

An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

Component aging evaluation with expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiesemann, J.S.; Maguire, H.T. Jr.

1988-01-01

The age degradation of components involves a complex relationship between a variety of variables. These relationships are typically modeled using probabilistic and deterministic analyses. These methods depend upon a formal understanding of the underlying degradation mechanisms and a database of experience which allows statistical analyses to extract numerical trends. At present, not all age degradation mechanisms are adequately modeled and available data for age degradation is in most cases insufficient. In addition, these methods tend to focus upon answers to isolated questions (e.g., What is the component failure rate?) rather than the more pertinent questions concerning operations and maintenance (e.g., should the component be replaced at the next outage). Fortunately, knowledge in the form of personal experience does exist which allows plant personnel to make decisions concerning operations and maintenance. This knowledge can be modeled using expert systems. This paper discusses CAGES (Component Aging Expert System). It combines expert rules (heuristics), probabilistic models, and deterministic models to make evaluations of component aging; predict the implications for component life extension, operational readiness, maintenance effectiveness, and safety, and make recommendations for maintenance and operation

Expert system verification and validation for nuclear power industry applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, J.A.

1990-01-01

The potential for the use of expert systems in the nuclear power industry is widely recognized. The benefits of such systems include consistency of reasoning during off-normal situations when humans are under great stress, the reduction of times required to perform certain functions, the prevention of equipment failures through predictive diagnostics, and the retention of human expertise in performing specialized functions. The increased use of expert systems brings with it concerns about their reliability. Difficulties arising from software problems can affect plant safety, reliability, and availability. A joint project between EPRI and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being initiated to develop a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems for nuclear power applications. This methodology will be tested on existing and developing expert systems. This effort will explore the applicability of conventional verification and validation methodologies to expert systems. The major area of concern will be certification of the knowledge base. This is expected to require new types of verification and validation techniques. A methodology for developing validation scenarios will also be studied

Design of groundwater pollution expert system: forward chaining and interfacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

2000-01-01

The groundwater pollution expert system (GWPES was developed by C Language Integrate Production System (CLEPS). The control techniques of this system consider some conclusion and then attempts to prove it by searching for supportive information from the database. The inference process goes in forward chaining of this system such as predicting groundwater pollution vulnerability, predicting the effect of nitrogen fertiliser, agricultural impact and project development on groundwater pollution potential. In GWPES, forward chaining system begins with a matching of inputs with the existing database of groundwater environment and activities impact of the project development. While, interaction between an expert system and user is conducted in simple English language. The interaction is highly interactive. A basis design with simple Graphic User Interface (GUI) to input data and by asking simple questions. (author)

Rational consensus under uncertainty: Expert judgment in the EC-USNRC uncertainty study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, R.; Kraan, B.; Goossens, L.

1999-01-01

Governmental bodies are confronted with the problem of achieving rational consensus in the face of substantial uncertainties. The area of accident consequence management for nuclear power plants affords a good example. Decisions with regard to evacuation, decontamination, and food bans must be taken on the basis of predictions of environmental transport of radioactive material, contamination through the food chain, cancer induction, and the like. These predictions use mathematical models containing scores of uncertain parameters. Decision makers want to take, and want to be perceived to take, these decisions in a rational manner. The question is, how can this be accomplished in the face of large uncertainties? Indeed, the very presence of uncertainty poses a threat to rational consensus. Decision makers will necessarily base their actions on the judgments of experts. The experts, however, will not agree among themselves, as otherwise we would not speak of large uncertainties. Any given expert's viewpoint will be favorable to the interests of some stakeholders, and hostile to the interests of others. If a decision maker bases his/her actions on the views of one single expert, then (s)he is invariably open to charges of partiality toward the interests favored by this viewpoint. An appeal to 'impartial' or 'disinterested' experts will fail for two reasons. First, experts have interests; they have jobs, mortgages and professional reputations. Second, even if expert interests could somehow be quarantined, even then the experts would disagree. Expert disagreement is not explained by diverging interests, and consensus cannot be reached by shielding the decision process from expert interests. If rational consensus requires expert agreement, then rational consensus is simply not possible in the face of uncertainty. If rational consensus under uncertainty is to be achieved, then evidently the views of a diverse set of experts must be taken into account. The question is how

Fuzzy Expert System for Heart Attack Diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan

2017-08-01

Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.

EXPERT SYSTEMS

OpenAIRE

Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

2011-01-01

In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

Stable Isotope Technique to Assess Intake of Human Milk in Breastfed Infants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

This publication was developed by an international group of experts as an integral part of the IAEA’s efforts to contribute to the transfer of technology and knowledge in nutrition. Its aim is to assist Member States in their efforts to combat malnutrition by facilitating the use of relevant nuclear techniques. The stable (non-radioactive) isotope technique has been developed to assess intake of human milk in breastfed infants. The practical application of the stable isotope technique, based on analysis of deuterium by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR), is presented in this book

Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Ardia

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior, which is shown to be equivalent to a Jeffreys’ prior, has under an orthogonal normalization for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices. We distinguish between models with a normal and Student t distribution since the latter typically provides a better description of daily changes of prices on financial markets. As an empirical application, stocks are used that are ingredients of the Dow Jones Composite Average index. The results show that normalization has little effect on the selection of pairs of cointegrated stocks on the basis of Bayes factors. However, the results stress the importance of the orthogonal normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread—the deviation from the equilibrium relationship—which leads to better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization.

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Anamnestic prediction of bucket handle compared to other tear patterns of the medial meniscus in stable knees.

Science.gov (United States)

Haviv, Barak; Bronak, Shlomo; Kosashvili, Yona; Thein, Rafael

2016-12-01

The aim of this study was to analyze and compare the preoperative anamnestic details between patients with an arthroscopic diagnosis of bucket handle and other tear patterns of the medial meniscus in stable knees. A total of 204 patients (mean age 49.3 ± 13 years) were included in the study. The mean age was 49.3 ± 13 years. The study group included 65 patients (63 males, 2 females) with an arthroscopic diagnosis of bucket handle tear and the control group included 139 patients (90 males, 49 females) with non-bucket handle tear patterns. The preoperative clinical assessments of the two groups were analyzed retrospectively. Anamnestic prediction for the diagnosis of a bucket handle tear was based upon various medical history parameters. Multivariate logistic regression was carried out to identify independent anamnestic factors for predicting isolated bucket handle tears of the medial meniscus compared to non-bucket handle tears. Analysis of the multivariate logistic regression yielded 3 statistically significant independent anamnestic risk factors for predicting isolated bucket handle tears of the medial meniscus: male gender (OR, 9.7; 95% CI, 1.1-37.6), locking events (OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.8-11.3) and pain in extension (OR, 6.9; 95% CI, 2.5-23.7). Other preoperative variables such as age, BMI, activity level, comorbidities, duration of symptoms, pain location, preceding injury and its mechanism had no significant effect on tear pattern. Preoperative strong clues for bucket handle tears of the medial meniscus in stable knees are male gender, locking events and limitation in extension. Level III, Diagnostic study. Copyright © 2016 Turkish Association of Orthopaedics and Traumatology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of fuzzy expert system on LILW performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemos, F.L. de; Sullivan, T.

2002-01-01

A complete LILW repository performance assessment requires the involvement between several experts in many fields of science. Many sources of uncertainties arise due to complexity of interaction of environmental parameters, lack of data and ignorance, this makes predictive analysis and interpretation difficult. This difficulty in understanding the impact of the ambiguities is even higher when it comes to public and decision makers involvement. Traditional methods of data analysis, while having strong mathematical basis, many times are not adequate to deal with ambiguous data. These ambiguities can be an obstacle to make the results easier to understand and defensible. A methodology of decision making, based on fuzzy logic, can help the interaction between experts, decision makers and the public. This method is the basis of an expert system which can help the analysis of very complex and ambiguous processes. (author)

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems in Medicine and Their Ability to Prediction as Therapy Planning Systems by CADIAG-2 Algorithm

OpenAIRE

Mohammad Madadpour Inallou; Zeinab Ajurlou; Bahman Mehri

2012-01-01

Expert Systems in Medicine is a collection, storage, retrieval, communication and processing of medical data for the purposes of interpretation, inference, decision-support, research and so other purposes in medicine. Expert System is an interactive computer-based decision tool that uses both facts and heuristics to solve difficult decision problems based on knowledge acquired from an expert. Expert systems provide expert advice and guidance in a wide variety of activities, from computer diag...

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how 'expert power' modulates memory and attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Klucharev, Vasily; Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2008-12-01

Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as 'expert power', is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion.

Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monica N. Iglecia

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla, occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as "optimal habitat" by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

1989-01-01

In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

OpenAIRE

Dobrinić, Damir; Dvorski, Stjepan; Bosilj, Neven

2008-01-01

Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and...

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Medical Expert Systems Survey

OpenAIRE

Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

2017-01-01

International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

Predicting treatable traits for long-acting bronchodilators in patients with stable COPD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang J

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Jieun Kang,1,* Ki Tae Kim,2,* Ji-Hyun Lee,3 Eun Kyung Kim,3 Tae-Hyung Kim,4 Kwang Ha Yoo,5 Jae Seung Lee,1 Woo Jin Kim,6 Ju Han Kim,2 Yeon-Mok Oh1 1Department of Pulmonology and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, 2Seoul National University Biomedical Informatics and Systems Biomedical Informatics Research Center, Division of Biomedical Informatics, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, 3Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam, 4Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Guri Hospital, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Guri, 5Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University Hospital, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, 6Department of Internal Medicine and Environmental Health Center, Kangwon National University Hospital, School of Medicine, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, South Korea *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: There is currently no measure to predict a treatability of long-acting β-2 agonist (LABA or long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. We aimed to build prediction models for the treatment response to these bronchodilators, in order to determine the most responsive medication for patients with COPD.Methods: We performed a prospective open-label crossover study, in which each long-acting bronchodilator was given in a random order to 65 patients with stable COPD for 4 weeks, with a 4-week washout period in between. We analyzed 14 baseline clinical traits, expression profiles of 31,426 gene transcripts, and damaged-gene scores of 6,464 genes acquired from leukocytes. The gene expression profiles were measured by RNA microarray and the damaged-gene scores were obtained after DNA exome sequencing. Linear regression analyses were performed to build prediction models after using

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

2006-05-10

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2006-01-01

Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

Impact of atmospheric release in stable night meteorological conditions; can emergency models predict dispersion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Connan, O.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Voiseux, C.; Lamotte, M.; Laguionie, P.; Maro, D.; Thomas, L. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC (France)

2014-07-01

Atmospheric dispersion of pollutant or radionuclides in stratified meteorological condition, i.e. especially when weather conditions are very stable, mainly at night, is still poorly understood and not well apprehended by the operational atmospheric dispersion models. However, correctly predicting the dispersion of a radioactive plume, and estimating the radiological consequences for the population, following an unplanned atmospheric release of radionuclides are crucial steps in an emergency response. To better understand dispersion in these special weather conditions, IRSN performed a series of 22 air sampling campaigns between 2010 and 2013 in the vicinity of the La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (AREVA - NC, France), at distances between 200 m and 3000 m from the facility. Krypton-85 ({sup 85}Kr), a b-and g-emitting radionuclide, released during the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel was used as a non-reactive tracer of radioactive plumes. Experimental campaigns were realized in stability class stable or very stable (E or F according to Pasquill classification) 18 times, and in neutral conditions (D according to Pasquill classification) 4 times. During each campaign, Krypton-85 real time measurement were made to find the plume around the plant, and then integrated samples (30 min) were collected in bag perpendicularly to the assumed wind direction axis. After measurement by gamma spectrometry, we have, when it was possible, estimate the point of impact and the width of the plume. The objective was to estimate the horizontal dispersion (width) of the plume at ground level in function of the distance and be able to calculate atmospheric transfer coefficients. In a second step, objective was to conclude on the use of common model and on their uncertainties. The results will be presented in terms of impact on the near-field. They will be compared with data obtained in previous years in neutral atmospheric conditions, and finally the results will be confronted with

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

Stable Tetraquarks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quigg, Chris [Fermilab

2018-04-13

For very heavy quarks, relations derived from heavy-quark symmetry imply novel narrow doubly heavy tetraquark states containing two heavy quarks and two light antiquarks. We predict that double-beauty states will be stable against strong decays, whereas the double-charm states and mixed beauty+charm states will dissociate into pairs of heavy-light mesons. Observing a new double-beauty state through its weak decays would establish the existence of tetraquarks and illuminate the role of heavy color-antitriplet diquarks as hadron constituents.

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

Stable Sparse Classifiers Identify qEEG Signatures that Predict Learning Disabilities (NOS) Severity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch-Bayard, Jorge; Galán-García, Lídice; Fernandez, Thalia; Lirio, Rolando B; Bringas-Vega, Maria L; Roca-Stappung, Milene; Ricardo-Garcell, Josefina; Harmony, Thalía; Valdes-Sosa, Pedro A

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present a novel methodology to solve the classification problem, based on sparse (data-driven) regressions, combined with techniques for ensuring stability, especially useful for high-dimensional datasets and small samples number. The sensitivity and specificity of the classifiers are assessed by a stable ROC procedure, which uses a non-parametric algorithm for estimating the area under the ROC curve. This method allows assessing the performance of the classification by the ROC technique, when more than two groups are involved in the classification problem, i.e., when the gold standard is not binary. We apply this methodology to the EEG spectral signatures to find biomarkers that allow discriminating between (and predicting pertinence to) different subgroups of children diagnosed as Not Otherwise Specified Learning Disabilities (LD-NOS) disorder. Children with LD-NOS have notable learning difficulties, which affect education but are not able to be put into some specific category as reading (Dyslexia), Mathematics (Dyscalculia), or Writing (Dysgraphia). By using the EEG spectra, we aim to identify EEG patterns that may be related to specific learning disabilities in an individual case. This could be useful to develop subject-based methods of therapy, based on information provided by the EEG. Here we study 85 LD-NOS children, divided in three subgroups previously selected by a clustering technique over the scores of cognitive tests. The classification equation produced stable marginal areas under the ROC of 0.71 for discrimination between Group 1 vs. Group 2; 0.91 for Group 1 vs. Group 3; and 0.75 for Group 2 vs. Group1. A discussion of the EEG characteristics of each group related to the cognitive scores is also presented.

Risk taking in adversarial situations: Civilization differences in chess experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Chassy, Philippe; Gobet, Fernand

2015-08-01

The projections of experts in politics predict that a new world order will emerge within two decades. Being multipolar, this world will inevitably lead to frictions where civilizations and states will have to decide whether to risk conflict. Very often these decisions are informed if not taken by experts. To estimate risk-taking across civilizations, we examined strategies used in 667,599 chess games played over eleven years by chess experts from 11 different civilizations. We show that some civilizations are more inclined to settle for peace. Similarly, we show that once engaged in the battle, the level of risk taking varies significantly across civilizations, the boldest civilization using the riskiest strategy about 35% more than the most conservative civilization. We discuss which psychological factors might underpin these civilizational differences. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sense of Humor, Stable Affect, and Psychological Well-Being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnie Cann

2014-08-01

Full Text Available A good sense of humor has been implicated as a quality that could contribute to psychological well-being. The mechanisms through which sense of humor might operate include helping to reappraise threats, serving as a character strength, or facilitating happiness. The current research attempts to integrate these possibilities by examining whether a good sense of humor might operate globally by helping to maintain a more stable positive affect. Stable positive affect has been shown to facilitate more effective problem solving and to build resilience. However, not all humor is adaptive humor, so we also examine the roles that different styles of humor use might play. Individual differences in humor styles were used to predict stable levels of affect. Then, in a longitudinal design, humor styles and stable affect were used to predict subsequent resilience and psychological health. The results indicated that stable affect was related to resilience and psychological well-being, and that a sense of humor that involves self-enhancing humor, humor based on maintaining a humorous perspective about one’s experiences, was positively related to stable positive affect, negatively related to stable negative affect, and was mediated through stable affect in influencing resilience, well-being and distress. Thus, while a good sense of humor can lead to greater resilience and better psychological health, the current results, focusing on stable affect, find only self-enhancing humor provides reliable benefits.

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how ‘expert power’ modulates memory and attitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2008-01-01

Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as ’expert power’, is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion. PMID:19015077

Stable isotope analysis in primatology: a critical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandberg, Paul A; Loudon, James E; Sponheimer, Matt

2012-11-01

Stable isotope analysis has become an important tool in ecology over the last 25 years. A wealth of ecological information is stored in animal tissues in the relative abundances of the stable isotopes of several elements, particularly carbon and nitrogen, because these isotopes navigate through ecological processes in predictable ways. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes have been measured in most primate taxonomic groups and have yielded information about dietary content, dietary variability, and habitat use. Stable isotopes have recently proven useful for addressing more fine-grained questions about niche dynamics and anthropogenic effects on feeding ecology. Here, we discuss stable carbon and nitrogen isotope systematics and critically review the published stable carbon and nitrogen isotope data for modern primates with a focus on the problems and prospects for future stable isotope applications in primatology. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Toxicity management of angiogenesis inhibitors: resolution of expert panel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel O. Rumiantsev

2017-12-01

Full Text Available On 22 June 2017 in St. Petersburg the expert panel was held on the topic “Management of toxicity of angiogenesis inhibitors”, which discussed current issues of systemic therapy of advanced differentiated thyroid cancer resistant to radioactive iodine therapy, advanced kidney cancer and questions of efficacy and safety of new target drugs in the treatment of these diseases. The reports and discussions of experts raised the following questions: 1. Own experience of using lenvatinib in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer refractory to therapy with radioactive iodine and kidney cancer. 2. Profile of efficacy and safety of modern targeted therapy with multikinase inhibitors. 3. Prophylaxis and management of predictable toxicity.

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Being an expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

2014-01-01

This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

Diagnosing battery behavior with an expert system in Prolog

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirkwood, N.; Weeks, D.J.

1986-01-01

Power for the Hubble Space Telescope comes from a system of 20 solar panel assemblies (SPAs) and six nickel-cadmium batteries. The HST battery system is simulated by the HST Electrical Power System (EPS) testbed at Marshall Space Flight Center. The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System (NICBES) is being used to diagnose faults of the testbed system, evaluate battery status and provide decision support for the engineer. Extensive telemetry of system operating conditions is relayed through a DEC LSI-11, and sent on to an IBM PC-AT. A BASIC program running on the PC monitors the flow of data, figures cell divergence and recharge ratio and stores these values, along with other selected data, for use by the expert system. The expert system is implemented in the logic programming language Prolog. It has three modes of operation: fault diagnosis, status and advice, and decision support. An alert or failure of the system will trigger a diagnosis by the system to assist the operator. The operator can also request battery status information as well as a number of plots and histograms of recent battery behavior. Trends in EOC and EOD voltage, recharge ratio and divergence are used by the expert system in its analysis of battery status. A future enhancement to the system includes the statistical prediction of battery life. Incorporating learning into the expert system is another possible enhancement; This is a difficult task, but one which could promise great rewards in improved battery performance

System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mieg, Harald A.

2006-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

Risk prediction in stable cardiovascular disease using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T single biomarker strategy compared to the ESC-SCORE.

Science.gov (United States)

Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Stoyanov, Kiril M; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Katus, Hugo A; Hochholzer, Willibald; Valina, Christian Marc

2018-01-01

To evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) compared with the ESC-SCORE. We included low-risk outpatients with stable cardiovascular (CV) disease categorised into need for non-secondary and secondary prevention. The prognostication of hs-cTnT at index visit was compared with the European Society of Cardiology-Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (ESC-SCORE) with respect to all-cause mortality (ACM) and two composite endpoints (ACM, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke and ACM, AMI, stroke and rehospitalisation for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and decompensated heart failure (DHF)). Within a median follow-up of 796 days, a total of 16 deaths, 32 composite endpoints of ACM, AMI and stroke and 83 composite endpoints of ACM, AMI, stroke, rehospitalisation for ACS and DHF were observed among 693 stable low-risk outpatients. Using C-statistics, measurement of hs-cTnT alone outperformed the ESC-SCORE for the prediction of ACM in the entire study population (Δarea under the curve (AUC) 0.221, p=0.0039) and both prevention groups (non-secondary: ΔAUC 0.164, p=0.0208; secondary: ΔAUC 0.264, p=0.0134). For the prediction of all other secondary endpoints, hs-cTnT was at least as effective as the ESC-SCORE, both in secondary and non-secondary prevention. Using continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement, hs-cTnT significantly improved reclassification regarding all endpoints in the entire population and in the secondary prevention cohort. In non-secondary prevention, hs-cTnT improved reclassification only for ACM. The results were confirmed in an independent external cohort on 2046 patients. Hs-cTnT is superior to the multivariable ESC-SCORE for the prediction of ACM and a composite endpoint in stable outpatients with and without relevant CV disease. NCT01954303; Pre-results.

Stable Sparse Classifiers Identify qEEG Signatures that Predict Learning Disabilities (NOS Severity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Bosch-Bayard

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a novel methodology to solve the classification problem, based on sparse (data-driven regressions, combined with techniques for ensuring stability, especially useful for high-dimensional datasets and small samples number. The sensitivity and specificity of the classifiers are assessed by a stable ROC procedure, which uses a non-parametric algorithm for estimating the area under the ROC curve. This method allows assessing the performance of the classification by the ROC technique, when more than two groups are involved in the classification problem, i.e., when the gold standard is not binary. We apply this methodology to the EEG spectral signatures to find biomarkers that allow discriminating between (and predicting pertinence to different subgroups of children diagnosed as Not Otherwise Specified Learning Disabilities (LD-NOS disorder. Children with LD-NOS have notable learning difficulties, which affect education but are not able to be put into some specific category as reading (Dyslexia, Mathematics (Dyscalculia, or Writing (Dysgraphia. By using the EEG spectra, we aim to identify EEG patterns that may be related to specific learning disabilities in an individual case. This could be useful to develop subject-based methods of therapy, based on information provided by the EEG. Here we study 85 LD-NOS children, divided in three subgroups previously selected by a clustering technique over the scores of cognitive tests. The classification equation produced stable marginal areas under the ROC of 0.71 for discrimination between Group 1 vs. Group 2; 0.91 for Group 1 vs. Group 3; and 0.75 for Group 2 vs. Group1. A discussion of the EEG characteristics of each group related to the cognitive scores is also presented.

Expert auditors’ services classification

OpenAIRE

Jolanta Wisniewska

2013-01-01

The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

Regional regression models of percentile flows for the contiguous United States: Expert versus data-driven independent variable selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geoffrey Fouad

2018-06-01

New hydrological insights for the region: A set of three variables selected based on an expert assessment of factors that influence percentile flows performed similarly to larger sets of variables selected using a data-driven method. Expert assessment variables included mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index. Larger sets of up to 37 variables contributed little, if any, additional predictive information. Variables used to describe the distribution of basin data (e.g. standard deviation were not useful, and average values were sufficient to characterize physical and climatic basin conditions. Effectiveness of the expert assessment variables may be due to the high degree of multicollinearity (i.e. cross-correlation among additional variables. A tool is provided in the Supplementary material to predict percentile flows based on the three expert assessment variables. Future work should develop new variables with a strong understanding of the processes related to percentile flows.

An expert system for PWR core operation management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ida, Toshio; Masuda, Masahiro; Nishioka, Hiromasa

1988-01-01

Planning for restartup after planned or unplanned reactor shutdown and load-follow operations is an important task in the core operation management of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). These planning problems have been solved by planning experts using their expertise and the computational prediction of core behavior. Therefore, the quality of the plan and the time consumed in the planning depend heavily on the skillfulness of the planning experts. A knowledge engineering approach has been recently considered as a promising means to solve such complicated planning problems. Many knowledge-based systems have been developed so far, and some of them have already been applied because of their effectiveness. The expert system REPLEX has been developed to aid core management engineers in making a successful plan for the restartup or the load-follow operation of PWRs within a shorter time. It can maintain planning tasks at a high-quality level independent of the skillfulness of core management engineers and enhance the efficiency of management. REPLEX has an explanation function that helps user understanding of plans. It could be a useful took, therefore, for the training of core management engineers.

An expert system for PWR core operation management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ida, Toshio; Masuda, Masahiro; Nishioka, Hiromasa.

1988-01-01

Planning for restartup after planned or unplanned reactor shutdown and load-follow operations is an important task in the core operation management of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). These planning problems have been solved by planning experts using their expertise and the computational prediction of core behavior. Therefore, the quality of the plan and the time consumed in the planning depend heavily on the skillfulness of the planning experts. A knowledge engineering approach has been recently considered as a promising means to solve such complicated planning problems. Many knowledge-based systems have been developed so far, and some of them have already been applied because of their effectiveness. The expert system REPLEX has been developed to aid core management engineers in making a successful plan for the restartup or the load-follow operation of PWRs within a shorter time. It can maintain planning tasks at a high-quality level independent of the skillfulness of core management engineers and enhance the efficiency of management. REPLEX has an explanation function that helps user understanding of plans. It could be a useful took, therefore, for the training of core management engineers

Waggawagga-CLI: A command-line tool for predicting stable single α-helices (SAH-domains, and the SAH-domain distribution across eukaryotes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominic Simm

Full Text Available Stable single-alpha helices (SAH-domains function as rigid connectors and constant force springs between structural domains, and can provide contact surfaces for protein-protein and protein-RNA interactions. SAH-domains mainly consist of charged amino acids and are monomeric and stable in polar solutions, characteristics which distinguish them from coiled-coil domains and intrinsically disordered regions. Although the number of reported SAH-domains is steadily increasing, genome-wide analyses of SAH-domains in eukaryotic genomes are still missing. Here, we present Waggawagga-CLI, a command-line tool for predicting and analysing SAH-domains in protein sequence datasets. Using Waggawagga-CLI we predicted SAH-domains in 24 datasets from eukaryotes across the tree of life. SAH-domains were predicted in 0.5 to 3.5% of the protein-coding content per species. SAH-domains are particularly present in longer proteins supporting their function as structural building block in multi-domain proteins. In human, SAH-domains are mainly used as alternative building blocks not being present in all transcripts of a gene. Gene ontology analysis showed that yeast proteins with SAH-domains are particular enriched in macromolecular complex subunit organization, cellular component biogenesis and RNA metabolic processes, and that they have a strong nuclear and ribonucleoprotein complex localization and function in ribosome and nucleic acid binding. Human proteins with SAH-domains have roles in all types of RNA processing and cytoskeleton organization, and are predicted to function in RNA binding, protein binding involved in cell and cell-cell adhesion, and cytoskeletal protein binding. Waggawagga-CLI allows the user to adjust the stabilizing and destabilizing contribution of amino acid interactions in i,i+3 and i,i+4 spacings, and provides extensive flexibility for user-designed analyses.

Prediction of serious complications in patients with seemingly stable febrile neutropenia: validation of the Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia in a prospective cohort of patients from the FINITE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; Jiménez-Fonseca, Paula; Virizuela Echaburu, Juan; Antonio, Maite; Font, Carme; Biosca, Mercè; Ramchandani, Avinash; Martínez, Jerónimo; Hernando Cubero, Jorge; Espinosa, Javier; Martínez de Castro, Eva; Ghanem, Ismael; Beato, Carmen; Blasco, Ana; Garrido, Marcelo; Bonilla, Yaiza; Mondéjar, Rebeca; Arcusa Lanza, María Ángeles; Aragón Manrique, Isabel; Manzano, Aránzazu; Sevillano, Elena; Castañón, Eduardo; Cardona, Mercé; Gallardo Martín, Elena; Pérez Armillas, Quionia; Sánchez Lasheras, Fernando; Ayala de la Peña, Francisco

2015-02-10

To validate a prognostic score predicting major complications in patients with solid tumors and seemingly stable episodes of febrile neutropenia (FN). The definition of clinical stability implies the absence of organ dysfunction, abnormalities in vital signs, and major infections. We developed the Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia (CISNE), with six explanatory variables associated with serious complications: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2 (2 points), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point), chronic cardiovascular disease (1 point), mucositis of grade ≥ 2 (National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria; 1 point), monocytes < 200 per μL (1 point), and stress-induced hyperglycemia (2 points). We integrated these factors into a score ranging from 0 to 8, which classifies patients into three prognostic classes: low (0 points), intermediate (1 to 2 points), and high risk (≥ 3 points). We present a multicenter validation of CISNE. We prospectively recruited 1,133 patients with seemingly stable FN from 25 hospitals. Complication rates in the training and validation subsets, respectively, were 1.1% and 1.1% in low-, 6.1% and 6.2% in intermediate-, and 32.5% and 36% in high-risk patients; mortality rates within each class were 0% in low-, 1.6% and 0% in intermediate-, and 4.3% and 3.1% in high-risk patients. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the validation subset were 0.652 (95% CI, 0.598 to 0.703) for Talcott, 0.721 (95% CI, 0.669 to 0.768) for Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC), and 0.868 (95% CI, 0.827 to 0.903) for CISNE (P = .002 for comparison between CISNE and MASCC). CISNE is a valid model for accurately classifying patients with cancer with seemingly stable FN episodes. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

William W. Weiss

2000-06-30

found to correlate regional attributes with individual well production. On a local scale, given open-hole log information, a neural network was trained to predict the product of porosity and oil saturation as reported in whole core analysis. Thus a direct indicator of an oil show is available from log information. This is important in the thin-bedded Delaware sand reservoirs. Fuzzy ranking was used to prioritize 3D seismic attributes that were then correlated to formation depth with a neural network. The results were superior to those obtained using linear interpolation or low order polynomial interpolation as time-to-depth conversion tools. A radial basis function neural network was developed and used as a log evaluation tool. This new technology gives an additional tool to the more commonly used multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network. An interactive web based MLP, PredictOnline, was coded in Java and made available to consortium members for beta testing. PredictOnline demonstrates the power of Java programming language for web-based applications. A draft design of the Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool system based on readily available software was completed. The recent development of a Java Expert System Shell, JESS, facilitates expert rule development.

Learning from the Experts: Gaining Insights into Best Practice during the Acquisition of Three Novel Motor Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Hodges, Nicola J.; Edwards, Christopher; Luttin, Shaun; Bowcock, Alison

2011-01-01

The amount and quality of practice predicts expertise, yet optimal conditions of practice have primarily been explored with novice learners. Ten expert musicians and ten novices practiced disc-throwing skills under self-regulated conditions. A third novice group practiced with the same schedule as the music experts (yoked). The groups did not…

Predicting the solubility and lability of Zn, Cd, and Pb in soils from a minespoil-contaminated catchment by stable isotopic exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Marzouk, E. R.; Chenery, S. R.; Young, S. D.

2013-12-01

The Rookhope catchment of Weardale, England, has a diverse legacy of contaminated soils due to extensive lead mining activity over four centuries. We measured the isotopically exchangeable content of Pb, Cd and Zn (E-values) in a large representative subset of the catchment soils (n = 246) using stable isotope dilution. All three metals displayed a wide range of %E-values (c. 1-100%) but relative lability followed the sequence Cd > Pb > Zn. A refinement of the stable isotope dilution approach also enabled detection of non-reactive metal contained within suspended sub-micron (dilution, in a diverse range of soil ecosystems within the catchment of an old Pb/Zn mining area. Assess the controlling influences of soil properties on metal lability and develop predictive algorithms for metal lability in the contaminated catchment based on simple soil properties (such as pH, organic matter (LOI), and total metal content). Examine the incidence of non-isotopically-exchangeable metal held within suspended colloidal particles (SCP-metal) in filtered soil solutions (<0.22 μm) by comparing E-values from isotopic abundance in solutions equilibrated with soil and in a resin phase equilibrated with the separated solution. Assess the ability of a geochemical speciation model, WHAM(VII), to predict metal solubility using isotopically exchangeable metal as an input variable.

Expert forecasts and the emergence of water scarcity on public agendas

Science.gov (United States)

Graffy, E.A.

2006-01-01

Expert forecasts of worldwide water scarcity depict conditions that call for proactive, preventive, coordinated water governance, but they have not been matched by public agendas of commensurate scope and urgency in the United States. This disconnect can not be adequately explained without some attention to attributes of forecasts themselves. I propose that the institutional fragmentation of water expertise and prevailing patterns of communication about water scarcity militate against the formulation of a common public definition of the problem and encourage reliance on unambiguous crises to stimulate social and policy agenda setting. I do not argue that expert forecasts should drive public agendas deterministically, but if their purpose is to help prevent water crises (not just predict them), then a greater effort is needed to overcome the barriers to meaningful public scrutiny of expert claims and evaluation of water strategies presently in place. Copyright ?? 2006 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Delegating Decisions to Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

2004-01-01

We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

Development of JOYO Plant Operation Management Expert Tool (JOYPET)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michino, Masanobu; Terano, Toshihiro; Hanawa, Mikio; Aoki, Hiroshi; Okubo, Toshiyuki

2000-03-01

The Operation and Maintenance Support Systems for JOYO are being developed, with the aim of ensuring the stable and safe operation of JOYO and improving operational reliability of future FBR plants. Plant Operation Management Expert Tool named JOYPET had been developed as one of the Operation and Maintenance Support Systems, which helps plant operation management. The following functions were developed and applied. (1) Papers management (Plant status management) function for maintenance activities, (2) Isolation management support function for plant operation, (3) Automatically drawing function of plant operation schedule, (4) Isolation judgment function for plant operation. By use this system, the plant management of JOYO was able to improved reliability and reduced manpower. (author)

Application of expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basden, A

1983-11-01

This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

Opportune maintenance and predictive maintenance decision support

OpenAIRE

Thomas , Edouard; Levrat , Eric; Iung , Benoît; Cocheteux , Pierre

2009-01-01

International audience; Conventional maintenance strategies on a single component are being phased out in favour of more predictive maintenance actions. These new kinds of actions are performed in order to control the global performances of the whole industrial system. They are anticipative in nature, which allows a maintenance expert to consider non-already-planned maintenance actions. Two questions naturally emerge: when to perform a predictive maintenance action; how a maintenance expert c...

[Study on expert system of infrared spectral characteristic of combustible smoke agent].

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Dong-ming; Guan, Hua; Hou, Wei; Pan, Gong-pei

2009-05-01

The present paper studied the application of expert system in prediction of infrared spectral characteristic of combustible anti-infrared smoke agent. The construction of the expert system was founded, based on the theory of minimum free energy and infrared spectral addition. After the direction of smoke agent was input, the expert system could figure out the final combustion products. Then infrared spectrogram of smoke could also be simulated by adding the spectra of all of the combustion products. Meanwhile, the screening index of smoke was provided in the wave bands of 3-5 im and 8-14 microm. FTIR spectroscope was used to investigate the performance of one kind of HC smoke. The combustion products calculated by the expert system were coincident with the actual data, and the simulant infrared spectrum was also similar to the real one of the smoke. The screening index given by the system was consistent with the known facts. It was showed that a new approach was offered for the fast discrimination of varieties of directions of smoke agent.

Expert Panel Elicitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

2005-09-15

Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

Appropriate Combination of Artificial Intelligence and Algorithms for Increasing Predictive Accuracy Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shahram Gilani Nia

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper a simple and effective expert system to predict random data fluctuation in short-term period is established. Evaluation process includes introducing Fourier series, Markov chain model prediction and comparison (Gray combined with the model prediction Gray- Fourier- Markov that the mixed results, to create an expert system predicted with artificial intelligence, made this model to predict the effectiveness of random fluctuation in most data management programs to increase. The outcome of this study introduced artificial intelligence algorithms that help detect that the computer environment to create a system that experts predict the short-term and unstable situation happens correctly and accurately predict. To test the effectiveness of the algorithm presented studies (Chen Tzay len,2008, and predicted data of tourism demand for Iran model is used. Results for the two countries show output model has high accuracy.

Ranking stability and super-stable nodes in complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghoshal, Gourab; Barabási, Albert-László

2011-07-19

Pagerank, a network-based diffusion algorithm, has emerged as the leading method to rank web content, ecological species and even scientists. Despite its wide use, it remains unknown how the structure of the network on which it operates affects its performance. Here we show that for random networks the ranking provided by pagerank is sensitive to perturbations in the network topology, making it unreliable for incomplete or noisy systems. In contrast, in scale-free networks we predict analytically the emergence of super-stable nodes whose ranking is exceptionally stable to perturbations. We calculate the dependence of the number of super-stable nodes on network characteristics and demonstrate their presence in real networks, in agreement with the analytical predictions. These results not only deepen our understanding of the interplay between network topology and dynamical processes but also have implications in all areas where ranking has a role, from science to marketing.

Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

2014-01-01

to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

Surgical experts: born or made?

Science.gov (United States)

Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

2013-01-01

The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Law for nuclear experts only

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

1980-02-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

Shaping beliefs in experimental markets for expert services: Guilt aversion and the impact of promises and money-burning options☆☆☆

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Adrian; Kerschbamer, Rudolf; Qiu, Jianying; Sutter, Matthias

2013-01-01

In a credence goods game with an expert and a consumer, we study experimentally the impact of two devices that are predicted to induce consumer-friendly behavior if the expert has a propensity to feel guilty when he believes that he violates the consumerʼs payoff expectations: (i) an opportunity for the expert to make a non-binding promise; and (ii) an opportunity for the consumer to burn money. In belief-based guilt aversion theory the first opportunity shapes an expertʼs behavior if an appropriate promise is made and if it is expected to be believed by the consumer; by contrast, the second opportunity might change behavior even though this option is never used along the predicted path. Experimental results confirm the behavioral relevance of (i) but fail to confirm (ii). PMID:24003266

DFT computations of the lattice constant, stable atomic structure and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents the most stable atomic structure and lattice constant of Fullerenes (C60). FHI-aims DFT code was used to predict the stable structure and the computational lattice constant of C60. These were compared with known experimental structures and lattice constants of C60. The results obtained showed that ...

Myocardial perfusion SPECT in stable angina;Place de la scintigraphie myocardique dans l'angor stable

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jau, P.; Jacob, T. [HP Clairval, Service de medecine nucleaire, 13 - Marseille (France); Lecorff, G.; Bouvier, J.L.; Novella, P.; Bechet, V.; Pelet, V. [HP Clairval, Service de cardiologie, 13 - Marseille (France)

2010-03-15

We study the precise contribution of myocardial scintigraphy in the therapeutic management of stable coronary artery disease. Until recently, treatment was focused on revascularization, often by coronary angioplasty.Recent studies have challenged this practice by showing the absence of superiority of angioplasty compared to optimal medical therapy.The problem now is to define for each stable coronary artery disease, and individually, the best of both treatment options. In this spirit, the functional approach to coronary artery disease by myocardial perfusion scintigraphy is most interesting.The diagnostic performance, including sensitivity and negative predictive value, and the prognostic value of the technique are clearly established. Recent studies show that a therapeutic decision based on a functional approach to the patient is valid.We need to know this development in cardiology for best position in the multidisciplinary discussions, myocardial scintigraphy as a functional approach to stable coronary artery disease. (N.C.)

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

2017-09-19

Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

Developments in REDES: The Rocket Engine Design Expert System

Science.gov (United States)

Davidian, Kenneth O.

1990-01-01

The Rocket Engine Design Expert System (REDES) was developed at NASA-Lewis to collect, automate, and perpetuate the existing expertise of performing a comprehensive rocket engine analysis and design. Currently, REDES uses the rigorous JANNAF methodology to analyze the performance of the thrust chamber and perform computational studies of liquid rocket engine problems. The following computer codes were included in REDES: a gas properties program named GASP; a nozzle design program named RAO; a regenerative cooling channel performance evaluation code named RTE; and the JANNAF standard liquid rocket engine performance prediction code TDK (including performance evaluation modules ODE, ODK, TDE, TDK, and BLM). Computational analyses are being conducted by REDES to provide solutions to liquid rocket engine thrust chamber problems. REDES was built in the Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) expert system shell and runs on a Sun 4/110 computer.

On Nash-Equilibria of Approximation-Stable Games

Science.gov (United States)

Awasthi, Pranjal; Balcan, Maria-Florina; Blum, Avrim; Sheffet, Or; Vempala, Santosh

One reason for wanting to compute an (approximate) Nash equilibrium of a game is to predict how players will play. However, if the game has multiple equilibria that are far apart, or ɛ-equilibria that are far in variation distance from the true Nash equilibrium strategies, then this prediction may not be possible even in principle. Motivated by this consideration, in this paper we define the notion of games that are approximation stable, meaning that all ɛ-approximate equilibria are contained inside a small ball of radius Δ around a true equilibrium, and investigate a number of their properties. Many natural small games such as matching pennies and rock-paper-scissors are indeed approximation stable. We show furthermore there exist 2-player n-by-n approximation-stable games in which the Nash equilibrium and all approximate equilibria have support Ω(log n). On the other hand, we show all (ɛ,Δ) approximation-stable games must have an ɛ-equilibrium of support O(Δ^{2-o(1)}/ɛ2{log n}), yielding an immediate n^{O(Δ^{2-o(1)}/ɛ^2log n)}-time algorithm, improving over the bound of [11] for games satisfying this condition. We in addition give a polynomial-time algorithm for the case that Δ and ɛ are sufficiently close together. We also consider an inverse property, namely that all non-approximate equilibria are far from some true equilibrium, and give an efficient algorithm for games satisfying that condition.

Real-time expert systems and deep knowledge models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felkel, L.

1990-01-01

To guide operators in normal and disturbed plant conditions expert systems are feasible. These, however, must be on-line and real-time systems. The knowledge contained in such a system cannot be represented in a 'classical' role-based manner. The paper describes problems and solutions with regard to process reference models as these are important in order to provide so-called deep-knowledge for the operators. The system described is being implemented and is meant to support both diagnosis and prediction

Coexistence of collapse and stable spatiotemporal solitons in multimode fibers

Science.gov (United States)

Shtyrina, Olga V.; Fedoruk, Mikhail P.; Kivshar, Yuri S.; Turitsyn, Sergei K.

2018-01-01

We analyze spatiotemporal solitons in multimode optical fibers and demonstrate the existence of stable solitons, in a sharp contrast to earlier predictions of collapse of multidimensional solitons in three-dimensional media. We discuss the coexistence of blow-up solutions and collapse stabilization by a low-dimensional external potential in graded-index media, and also predict the existence of stable higher-order nonlinear waves such as dipole-mode spatiotemporal solitons. To support the main conclusions of our numerical studies we employ a variational approach and derive analytically the stability criterion for input powers for the collapse stabilization.

Upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements: a general population job exposure matrix based on expert ratings and technical measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalbøge, Annett; Hansson, Gert-Åke; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Heilskov-Hansen, Thomas; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff

2016-08-01

We recently constructed a general population job exposure matrix (JEM), The Shoulder JEM, based on expert ratings. The overall aim of this study was to convert expert-rated job exposures for upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements to measurement scales. The Shoulder JEM covers all Danish occupational titles, divided into 172 job groups. For 36 of these job groups, we obtained technical measurements (inclinometry) of upper arm elevation and repetitive shoulder movements. To validate the expert-rated job exposures against the measured job exposures, we used Spearman rank correlations and the explained variance[Formula: see text] according to linear regression analyses (36 job groups). We used the linear regression equations to convert the expert-rated job exposures for all 172 job groups into predicted measured job exposures. Bland-Altman analyses were used to assess the agreement between the predicted and measured job exposures. The Spearman rank correlations were 0.63 for upper arm elevation and 0.64 for repetitive shoulder movements. The expert-rated job exposures explained 64% and 41% of the variance of the measured job exposures, respectively. The corresponding calibration equations were y=0.5%time+0.16×expert rating and y=27°/s+0.47×expert rating. The mean differences between predicted and measured job exposures were zero due to calibration; the 95% limits of agreement were ±2.9% time for upper arm elevation >90° and ±33°/s for repetitive shoulder movements. The updated Shoulder JEM can be used to present exposure-response relationships on measurement scales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

2015-01-01

Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, E.

1996-01-01

Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

Investigation of Perceptual-Motor Behavior Across the Expert Athlete to Disabled Patient Skill Continuum can Advance Theory and Practical Application.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Sean; Vallence, Ann-Maree; Winstein, Carolee

2017-12-14

A framework is presented of how theoretical predictions can be tested across the expert athlete to disabled patient skill continuum. Common-coding theory is used as the exemplar to discuss sensory and motor system contributions to perceptual-motor behavior. Behavioral and neural studies investigating expert athletes and patients recovering from cerebral stroke are reviewed. They provide evidence of bi-directional contributions of visual and motor systems to perceptual-motor behavior. Majority of this research is focused on perceptual-motor performance or learning, with less on transfer. The field is ripe for research designed to test theoretical predictions across the expert athlete to disabled patient skill continuum. Our view has implications for theory and practice in sports science, physical education, and rehabilitation.

Experts in science and society

CERN Document Server

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2004-01-01

In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

Expert system in PNC, 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

1990-01-01

The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

An abnormal event advisory expert system prototype for reactor operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hance, D.C.

1989-01-01

Nuclear plant operators must respond correctly during abnormal conditions in the presence of dynamic and potentially overwhelming volumes of information. For this reason, considerable effort has been directed toward the development of nuclear plant operator aids using artificial intelligence techniques. The objective of such systems is to diagnose abnormal conditions within the plant, possibly predict consequences, and advise the operators of corrective actions in a timely manner. The objective of the work is the development of a prototype expert system to diagnose abnormal events at a nuclear power plant and advise plant operators of the event and applicable procedures in an on-line mode. The major difference between this effort and previous work is the use of plant operating procedures as a knowledge source and as an integral part of the advice provided by the expert system. The acceptance by utilities of expert systems as operator aids requires that such systems be compatible with the regulatory environment and provide economic benefits. For this reason, commercially viable operator aid systems developed in the near future must complement existing plant procedures rather than reach beyond them in a revolutionary manner. A knowledge source is the resource providing facts and relationships that are coded into the expert system program. In this case, the primary source of knowledge is a set of selected abnormal operating procedures for a modern Westinghouse pressurized water reactor

Experts on public trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2007-01-01

a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

Value of routine investigations to predict loop diuretic down-titration success in stable heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, Pieter; Verbrugge, Frederik H; Boonen, Levinia; Nijst, Petra; Dupont, Matthias; Mullens, Wilfried

2018-01-01

Guidelines advocate down-titration of loop diuretics in chronic heart failure (CHF) when patients have no signs of volume overload. Limited data are available on the expected success rate of this practice or how routine diagnostic tests might help steering this process. Fifty ambulatory CHF-patients on stable neurohumoral blocker/diuretic therapy for at least 3months without any clinical sign of volume overload were prospectively included to undergo loop diuretic down-titration. All patients underwent a similar pre-down-titration evaluation consisting of a dyspnea scoring, physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography (diastolic function, right ventricular function, cardiac filling pressures and valvular disease), blood sample (serum creatinine, plasma NT-pro-BNP and neurohormones). Loop diuretic maintenance dose was subsequently reduced by 50% or stopped if dose was ≤40mg furosemide equivalents. Successful down-titration was defined as a persistent dose reduction after 30days without weight increase >1.5kg or new-onset symptoms of worsening heart failure. At 30-day follow-up, down-titration was successful in 62% (n=31). In 12/19 patients exhibiting down-titration failure, this occurred within the first week. Physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography and laboratory analysis had limited predictive capability to detect patients with down-titration success/failure (positive likelihood-ratios below 1.5, or area under the curve [AUC] non-statically different from AUC=0.5). Loop diuretic down-titration is feasible in a majority of stable CHF patients in which the treating clinician felt continuation of loops was unnecessary to sustain euvolemia. Importantly, routine diagnostics which suggest euvolemia, have limited diagnostic impact on the post-test probability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eggermont, G.

2000-01-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

PSG-EXPERT. An expert system for the diagnosis of sleep disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Fred, A; Filipe, J; Partinen, M; Paiva, T

2000-01-01

This paper describes PSG-EXPERT, an expert system in the domain of sleep disorders exploring polysomnographic data. The developed software tool is addressed from two points of view: (1)--as an integrated environment for the development of diagnosis-oriented expert systems; (2)--as an auxiliary diagnosis tool in the particular domain of sleep disorders. Developed over a Windows platform, this software tool extends one of the most popular shells--CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) with the following features: backward chaining engine; graph-based explanation facilities; knowledge editor including a fuzzy fact editor and a rules editor, with facts-rules integrity checking; belief revision mechanism; built-in case generator and validation module. It therefore provides graphical support for knowledge acquisition, edition, explanation and validation. From an application domain point of view, PSG-Expert is an auxiliary diagnosis system for sleep disorders based on polysomnographic data, that aims at assisting the medical expert in his diagnosis task by providing automatic analysis of polysomnographic data, summarising the results of this analysis in terms of a report of major findings and possible diagnosis consistent with the polysomnographic data. Sleep disorders classification follows the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. Major features of the system include: browsing on patients data records; structured navigation on Sleep Disorders descriptions according to ASDA definitions; internet links to related pages; diagnosis consistent with polysomnographic data; graphical user-interface including graph-based explanatory facilities; uncertainty modelling and belief revision; production of reports; connection to remote databases.

Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

1992-01-01

Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: m.m.leeuwenburgh@amc.uva.nl [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2014-01-15

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap

2014-01-01

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher

Holistic processing of musical notation: Dissociating failures of selective attention in experts and novices.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Yetta Kwailing; Gauthier, Isabel

2010-12-01

Holistic processing (i.e., the tendency to process objects as wholes) is associated with face perception and also with expertise individuating novel objects. Surprisingly, recent work also reveals holistic effects in novice observers. It is unclear whether the same mechanisms support holistic effects in experts and in novices. In the present study, we measured holistic processing of music sequences using a selective attention task in participants who vary in music-reading expertise. We found that holistic effects were strategic in novices but were relatively automatic in experts. Correlational analyses revealed that individual holistic effects were predicted by both individual music-reading ability and neural responses for musical notation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA), but in opposite directions for experts and novices, suggesting that holistic effects in the two groups may be of different natures. To characterize expert perception, it is important not only to measure the tendency to process objects as wholes, but also to test whether this effect is dependent on task constraints.

Expert system for assisting the repair operations on the control racks of the control rods assembly in a 900 MW PWR type reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monnier, B.; Doutre, J.L.; Franco, A.

1990-01-01

The expert system presented was developed for assisting the repair operations on the control equipment of the control rod assembly in a PWR type reactor. The expert system allows the representation of expert knowledge and diagnostic reasoning. The objective of the expert system is to achieve the most precise diagnostic and localizing of the breakdown elements, by processing the data acquired during breakdown. The development steps, the structure and the applications of the expert system are summarized. The expert system operates in an IBM PC equipped with a AMAIA 8 Mo card. A time schedule of 18 months is predicted [fr

Functional MRI reveals expert-novice differences during sport-related anticipation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Michael J; Bishop, Daniel T; Jackson, Robin C; Abernethy, Bruce

2010-01-27

We examined the effect of expertise on cortical activation during sports anticipation using functional MRI. In experiment 1, recreational players predicted badminton stroke direction and the pattern of active clusters was consistent with a proposed perception-of-action network. This pattern was not replicated in a stimulus-matched, action-unrelated control task. In experiment 2, players of three different skill levels anticipated stroke direction from clips occluded either 160 ms before or 80 ms after racquet-shuttle contact. Early-occluded sequences produced more activation than late-occluded sequences overall, in most cortical regions of interest, but experts showed an additional enhancement in medial, dorsolateral and ventrolateral frontal cortex. Anticipation in open-skill sports engages cortical areas integral to observing and understanding others' actions; such activity is enhanced in experts.

Intelligent programs-expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gledhill, V X

1982-01-01

In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

Science.gov (United States)

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-01-01

Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

TU Delft expert judgment data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

2008-01-01

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

Expert system technology for the military

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

1988-01-01

This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

1996-01-01

This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

Recombination in diverse maize is stable, predictable, and associated with genetic load.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers-Melnick, Eli; Bradbury, Peter J; Elshire, Robert J; Glaubitz, Jeffrey C; Acharya, Charlotte B; Mitchell, Sharon E; Li, Chunhui; Li, Yongxiang; Buckler, Edward S

2015-03-24

Among the fundamental evolutionary forces, recombination arguably has the largest impact on the practical work of plant breeders. Varying over 1,000-fold across the maize genome, the local meiotic recombination rate limits the resolving power of quantitative trait mapping and the precision of favorable allele introgression. The consequences of low recombination also theoretically extend to the species-wide scale by decreasing the power of selection relative to genetic drift, and thereby hindering the purging of deleterious mutations. In this study, we used genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) to identify 136,000 recombination breakpoints at high resolution within US and Chinese maize nested association mapping populations. We find that the pattern of cross-overs is highly predictable on the broad scale, following the distribution of gene density and CpG methylation. Several large inversions also suppress recombination in distinct regions of several families. We also identify recombination hotspots ranging in size from 1 kb to 30 kb. We find these hotspots to be historically stable and, compared with similar regions with low recombination, to have strongly differentiated patterns of DNA methylation and GC content. We also provide evidence for the historical action of GC-biased gene conversion in recombination hotspots. Finally, using genomic evolutionary rate profiling (GERP) to identify putative deleterious polymorphisms, we find evidence for reduced genetic load in hotspot regions, a phenomenon that may have considerable practical importance for breeding programs worldwide.

Design of an expert system for the development and formulation of push-pull osmotic pump tablets containing poorly water-soluble drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhi-hong; Dong, Hong-ye; Peng, Bo; Liu, Hong-fei; Li, Chun-lei; Liang, Min; Pan, Wei-san

2011-05-30

The purpose of this article was to build an expert system for the development and formulation of push-pull osmotic pump tablets (PPOP). Hundreds of PPOP formulations were studied according to different poorly water-soluble drugs and pharmaceutical acceptable excipients. The knowledge base including database and rule base was built based on the reported results of hundreds of PPOP formulations containing different poorly water-soluble drugs and pharmaceutical excipients and the experiences available from other researchers. The prediction model of release behavior was built using back propagation (BP) neural network, which is good at nonlinear mapping and learning function. Formulation design model was established based on the prediction model of release behavior, which was the nucleus of the inference engine. Finally, the expert system program was constructed by VB.NET associating with SQL Server. Expert system is one of the most popular aspects in artificial intelligence. To date there is no expert system available for the formulation of controlled release dosage forms yet. Moreover, osmotic pump technology (OPT) is gradually getting consummate all over the world. It is meaningful to apply expert system on OPT. Famotidine, a water insoluble drug was chosen as the model drug to validate the applicability of the developed expert system. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Deontology of the medical expert].

Science.gov (United States)

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

The stable stiffness triangle - drained sand during deformation cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabaliauskas, Tomas; Ibsen, Lars Bo

2017-01-01

Cyclic, drained sand stiffness was observed using the Danish triaxial appa- ratus. New, deformation dependant soil property (the stable stiffness triangle) was detected. Using the the stable stiffness triangle, secant stiffness of drained sand was plausible to predict (and control) even during ir...... findings can find application in off-shore, seismic and other engi- neering practice, or inspire new branches of research and modelling wherever dynamic, cyclic or transient loaded sand is encountered....

Expert systems: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdejo, F.

1985-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

Validity and validation of expert (Q)SAR systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulzebos, E; Sijm, D; Traas, T; Posthumus, R; Maslankiewicz, L

2005-08-01

At a recent workshop in Setubal (Portugal) principles were drafted to assess the suitability of (quantitative) structure-activity relationships ((Q)SARs) for assessing the hazards and risks of chemicals. In the present study we applied some of the Setubal principles to test the validity of three (Q)SAR expert systems and validate the results. These principles include a mechanistic basis, the availability of a training set and validation. ECOSAR, BIOWIN and DEREK for Windows have a mechanistic or empirical basis. ECOSAR has a training set for each QSAR. For half of the structural fragments the number of chemicals in the training set is >4. Based on structural fragments and log Kow, ECOSAR uses linear regression to predict ecotoxicity. Validating ECOSAR for three 'valid' classes results in predictivity of > or = 64%. BIOWIN uses (non-)linear regressions to predict the probability of biodegradability based on fragments and molecular weight. It has a large training set and predicts non-ready biodegradability well. DEREK for Windows predictions are supported by a mechanistic rationale and literature references. The structural alerts in this program have been developed with a training set of positive and negative toxicity data. However, to support the prediction only a limited number of chemicals in the training set is presented to the user. DEREK for Windows predicts effects by 'if-then' reasoning. The program predicts best for mutagenicity and carcinogenicity. Each structural fragment in ECOSAR and DEREK for Windows needs to be evaluated and validated separately.

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Preserving experience through expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

1989-01-01

Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

Operational expert system applications in Canada

CERN Document Server

Suen, Ching Y

1992-01-01

This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Grider, Daryl A.

1994-01-01

Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

The feasibility of using expert systems to cope with the complexity and extent of the indoor radon problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raes, F.; Poffijn, A.; Eggermont, G.

1988-01-01

The main problems in predicting the average radon concentration in a single house are: (1) to obtain specific high resolution information about the house, and (2) to handle qualitative but relevant information. We introduce the idea of using an expert system to obtain high resolution data by interrogating the inhabitants about their house, as well as to interpret the qualitative information obtained in this way. To study the feasibility of this approach, a prototype expert system has been written which was given the obvious name Radon Expert System (RAES). RAES derives a radon index starting from information obtained from geological maps and other data bases. It subsequently refines this information and focusses on a single house by asking for information from the inhabitants. With the help of RAES, we interrogated the inhabitants of a number of houses where radon measurements had previously been performed. The correspondence between prediction and measurement is encouraging. (author)

An expert system for uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

1989-01-01

Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

Expert software for accident identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

2003-01-01

Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

Predicting the Occurrence of Hypotension in Stable Patients With Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Point-of-Care Lactate Testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Byuk Sung; Kim, Won Young; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Ahn, Shin; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Seo, Dong Woo; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Jung, Hwoon-Yong

2015-11-01

It is difficult to assess risk in normotensive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial lactate value can predict the in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Retrospective, observational, single-center study. Emergency department of a tertiary-care, university-affiliated hospital during a 5-year period. Medical records of 3,489 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were normotensive at presentation to the emergency department. We analyzed the ability of point-of-care testing of lactate at emergency department admission to predict hypotension development (defined as systolic blood pressure upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 157 patients experienced hypotension within 24 hours. Lactate was independently associated with hypotension development (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), and the risk of hypotension significantly increased as the lactate increased from 2.5-4.9 mmol/L (odds ratio, 2.2) to 5.0-7.4 mmol/L (odds ratio, 4.0) and to greater than or equal to 7.5 mmol/L (odds ratio, 39.2) (pupper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, subsequently, prospective validate research will be required to clarify this.

BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

2004-01-01

At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

The ALICE-HMPID Detector Control System: Its evolution towards an expert and adaptive system

Science.gov (United States)

De Cataldo, G.; Franco, A.; Pastore, C.; Sgura, I.; Volpe, G.

2011-05-01

The High Momentum Particle IDentification (HMPID) detector is a proximity focusing Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) for charged hadron identification. The HMPID is based on liquid C 6F 14 as the radiator medium and on a 10 m 2 CsI coated, pad segmented photocathode of MWPCs for UV Cherenkov photon detection. To ensure full remote control, the HMPID is equipped with a detector control system (DCS) responding to industrial standards for robustness and reliability. It has been implemented using PVSS as Slow Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) environment, Programmable Logic Controller as control devices and Finite State Machines for modular and automatic command execution. In the perspective of reducing human presence at the experiment site, this paper focuses on DCS evolution towards an expert and adaptive control system, providing, respectively, automatic error recovery and stable detector performance. HAL9000, the first prototype of the HMPID expert system, is then presented. Finally an analysis of the possible application of the adaptive features is provided.

The ALICE-HMPID Detector Control System: Its evolution towards an expert and adaptive system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Cataldo, G.; Franco, A.; Pastore, C.; Sgura, I.; Volpe, G.

2011-01-01

The High Momentum Particle IDentification (HMPID) detector is a proximity focusing Ring Imaging Cherenkov (RICH) for charged hadron identification. The HMPID is based on liquid C 6 F 14 as the radiator medium and on a 10 m 2 CsI coated, pad segmented photocathode of MWPCs for UV Cherenkov photon detection. To ensure full remote control, the HMPID is equipped with a detector control system (DCS) responding to industrial standards for robustness and reliability. It has been implemented using PVSS as Slow Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) environment, Programmable Logic Controller as control devices and Finite State Machines for modular and automatic command execution. In the perspective of reducing human presence at the experiment site, this paper focuses on DCS evolution towards an expert and adaptive control system, providing, respectively, automatic error recovery and stable detector performance. HAL9000, the first prototype of the HMPID expert system, is then presented. Finally an analysis of the possible application of the adaptive features is provided.

Trendwatch combining expert opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

2006-01-01

In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

2018-04-01

We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

An expert system for microbiologically influenced corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carney, C.E.; Licina, G.J.

1991-01-01

Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion (MIC) is a damage mechanism that can cause serious degradation of service water system components. MIC can be particularly insidious since damage can occur very quickly, even in environments otherwise resistant to corrosion. Plant operations or maintenance personnel or system engineers typically do not have sufficient expertise to predict when and where MIC may occur or what methods of treatment are effective. An expert system (MICPro) has been devised which provides a tool for utilities to predict where MIC will occur, which systems or components are most susceptible, how operating parameters may affect vulnerability, and how to implement corrective and preventative measures. The system is designed to be simple to use: required inputs are common system parameters and results are presented as numbers from 1 to 10 indicating the likelihood of damage due to the given input. In this paper the structure and operation of the system is described, and future refinements are discussed

An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damir Dobrinić

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and investigates the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. This research focuses mainly on understanding the potential and effectiveness of the use of mobile phones as a promotional medium, but we also try to recognize the level of concern of marketing experts associated with spam, relating to privacy intrusion and ethics components in m-advertising. Privacy and ethics concerns could create resistance to the adoption of m-advertising. Media selection becomes the most critical factor for the success of a promotional and advertising marketing campaign. Croatian experts still consider TV or newspapers the best way to reach a large number of potential consumers, but what are their expectations towards mobile advertising? To answer this question, we built a model that links attitudes towards advertising via classical media to the intention to use m-advertising.

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

2018-02-01

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

Stable convergence and stable limit theorems

CERN Document Server

Häusler, Erich

2015-01-01

The authors present a concise but complete exposition of the mathematical theory of stable convergence and give various applications in different areas of probability theory and mathematical statistics to illustrate the usefulness of this concept. Stable convergence holds in many limit theorems of probability theory and statistics – such as the classical central limit theorem – which are usually formulated in terms of convergence in distribution. Originated by Alfred Rényi, the notion of stable convergence is stronger than the classical weak convergence of probability measures. A variety of methods is described which can be used to establish this stronger stable convergence in many limit theorems which were originally formulated only in terms of weak convergence. Naturally, these stronger limit theorems have new and stronger consequences which should not be missed by neglecting the notion of stable convergence. The presentation will be accessible to researchers and advanced students at the master's level...

A law for nuclear experts only

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, H.

1980-01-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

Operational expert system applications in Europe

CERN Document Server

Zarri, Gian Piero

1992-01-01

Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotra, J.P.; Lee, M.P.; Eisenberg, N.A.; DeWispelare, A.R.

1996-11-01

Should the site be found suitable, DOE will apply to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for permission to construct and then operate a proposed geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain. In deciding whether to grant or deny DOE's license application for a geologic repository, NRC will closely examine the facts and expert judgment set forth in any potential DOE license application. NRC expects that subjective judgments of individual experts and, in some cases, groups of experts, will be used by DOE to interpret data obtained during site characterization and to address the many technical issues and inherent uncertainties associated with predicting the performance of a repository system for thousands of years. NRC has traditionally accepted, for review, expert judgment to evaluate and interpret the factual bases of license applications and is expected to give appropriate consideration to the judgments of DOE's experts regarding the geologic repository. Such consideration, however, envisions DOE using expert judgments to complement and supplement other sources of scientific and technical information, such as data collection, analyses, and experimentation. In this document, the NRC staff has set forth technical positions that: (1) provide general guidelines on those circumstances that may warrant the use of a formal process for obtaining the judgments of more than one expert (i.e., expert elicitation); and (2) describe acceptable procedures for conducting expert elicitation when formally elicited judgments are used to support a demonstration of compliance with NRC's geologic disposal regulation, currently set forth in 10 CFR Part 60. 76 refs

An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

2013-02-01

Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

Expert system application education project

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

1988-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

The Prediction of Exchange Rates with the Use of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Spiesová

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Currency market is recently the largest world market during the existence of which there have been many theories regarding the prediction of the development of exchange rates based on macroeconomic, microeconomic, statistic and other models. The aim of this paper is to identify the adequate model for the prediction of non-stationary time series of exchange rates and then use this model to predict the trend of the development of European currencies against Euro. The uniqueness of this paper is in the fact that there are many expert studies dealing with the prediction of the currency pairs rates of the American dollar with other currency but there is only a limited number of scientific studies concerned with the long-term prediction of European currencies with the help of the integrated ARMA models even though the development of exchange rates has a crucial impact on all levels of economy and its prediction is an important indicator for individual countries, banks, companies and businessmen as well as for investors. The results of this study confirm that to predict the conditional variance and then to estimate the future values of exchange rates, it is adequate to use the ARIMA (1,1,1 model without constant, or ARIMA [(1,7,1,(1,7] model, where in the long-term, the square root of the conditional variance inclines towards stable value.

Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlachos D.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

The First Expert CAI System

Science.gov (United States)

Feurzeig, Wallace

1984-01-01

The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

Combining Crowd and Expert Labels using Decision Theoretic Active Learning

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-11

including those la- beled by a classifier trained on using the labels acquired so far). For example, a simple loss function would just be the number...model is used to predict the probability that each crowd la- beled item is correct. This estimate is in turn used to weight the corresponding...costs) for each state using Algorithm 1 as a subroutine. We consider taking the possible action for each item not yet la- beled by the expert. Thus each

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert database system for quality control

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

1993-09-01

There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

Expert systems in process control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wittig, T.

1987-01-01

To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

Underwater Munitions Expert System to Predict Mobility and Burial

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-14

for predicting the location and possible burial of underwater munitions is required to advise site managers as they plan...that region above the given UXO relative density, which is defined as the UXO density divided by the sand grain density, ( nominally 2650 g...0.0 + 2.5*dsed ; % nominal bed roughness if no burial % (Potentially in future version, ripple height

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appazov, Artur

The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

2018-01-01

The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggleton, S.H.

1986-01-01

Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

ALICE Expert System

CERN Document Server

Ionita, C

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

Development of an expert system for tsunami warning: a unit source approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roshan, A.D.; Pisharady, Ajai S.; Bishnoi, L.R.; Shah, Meet

2015-01-01

Coastal region of India has been experiencing tsunamis since historical times. Many nuclear facilities including nuclear power plants (NPPs), located along the coast are thus exposed to the hazards of tsunami. For the safety of these facilities as well as the safety of the citizens it is necessary to predict the possibility of occurrence of tsunamis for a recorded earthquake event and evaluate the tsunami hazard posed by the earthquake. To address these concerns, this work aims to design an expert system for Tsunami Warning for the Indian Coast with emphasis on evaluation of tsunami heights and arrival times at various nuclear facility sites. The expert system identifies possibility or otherwise of a tsunamigenic event based on earthquake data inputs. Rupture parameters are worked out for the event and unit tsunami source estimations which are available as precomputed database are combined appropriately to estimate the wave heights and time of arrivals at desired locations along the coast. The system also predicts tsunami wave heights at some pre-defined locations such as Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and other nuclear facility sites. Time of arrivals of first wave along Indian coast is also evaluated

Expert system in PNC, 6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubota, Koji

1990-01-01

The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

Uncertain but able: Entrepreneurial self-efficacy and novices׳ use of expert decision-logic under uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engel, Y.; Dimitrova, N.G.; Khapova, S.N.; Elfring, T.

2014-01-01

Entrepreneurs' initial strategy choices are made in the face of inherently uncertain and fundamentally unpredictable futures. Yet, unlike experts, novice entrepreneurs still tend to rely on predictions and forecasts as they move their ideas through t h e venture creation process. This study examines

Osteoprotegerin independently predicts mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the CLARICOR trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerre, Mette; Hilden, Jørgen; Kastrup, Jens

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To elucidate the prognostic power of serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: Serum OPG levels were measured in the CLARICOR trial cohort of 4063 patients with stable CAD on blood samples drawn at randomization. The follow-up was 2...... predictor for all-cause mortality. Importantly, OPG remained an independent predictor of mortality even after adjustment for both clinical and conventional cardiovascular risk markers (HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.6-3.9, p power as to all...

Use of an expert system data analysis manager for space shuttle main engine test evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Abernethy, Ken

1988-01-01

The ability to articulate, collect, and automate the application of the expertise needed for the analysis of space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data would be of great benefit to NASA liquid rocket engine experts. This paper describes a project whose goal is to build a rule-based expert system which incorporates such expertise. Experiential expertise, collected directly from the experts currently involved in SSME data analysis, is used to build a rule base to identify engine anomalies similar to those analyzed previously. Additionally, an alternate method of expertise capture is being explored. This method would generate rules inductively based on calculations made using a theoretical model of the SSME's operation. The latter rules would be capable of diagnosing anomalies which may not have appeared before, but whose effects can be predicted by the theoretical model.

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Jalie A; Cheong, JeeWon; Chandler, Susan D; Lambert, Brice H; Pietrzak, Brittney; Kwok, Heather; Davies, Susan L

2016-12-01

As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. This study compared the predictive utility of this money-based "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of preresolution drinking practices and problems, analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks), and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the preresolution year. Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced preresolution allocations to drinking and savings (odds ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 3.08, p < 0.05), suggesting it is associated with longer-term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of behavioral

Prospective Analysis of Behavioral Economic Predictors of Stable Moderation Drinking Among Problem Drinkers Attempting Natural Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Jalie A.; Cheong, JeeWon; Chandler, Susan D.; Lambert, Brice H.; Pietrzak, Brittney; Kwok, Heather; Davies, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Background As interventions have expanded beyond clinical treatment to include brief interventions for persons with less severe alcohol problems, predicting who can achieve stable moderation drinking has gained importance. Recent behavioral economic (BE) research on natural recovery has shown that active problem drinkers who allocate their monetary expenditures on alcohol and saving for the future over longer time horizons tend to have better subsequent recovery outcomes, including maintenance of stable moderation drinking. The present study compared the predictive utility of this money-based “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” (ASDE) index with multiple BE analogue measures of behavioral impulsivity and self-control, which have seldom been investigated together, to predict outcomes of natural recovery attempts. Methods Community-dwelling problem drinkers, enrolled shortly after stopping abusive drinking without treatment, were followed prospectively for up to a year (N = 175 [75.4% male], M age = 50.65 years). They completed baseline assessments of pre-resolution drinking practices and problems; analogue behavioral choice tasks (Delay Discounting, Melioration-Maximization, and Alcohol Purchase Tasks); and a Timeline Followback interview including expenditures on alcohol compared to voluntary savings (ASDE index) during the pre-resolution year. Results Multinomial logistic regression models showed that, among the BE measures, only the ASDE index predicted stable moderation drinking compared to stable abstinence or unstable resolutions involving relapse. As hypothesized, stable moderation was associated with more balanced pre-resolution allocations to drinking and savings (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.02 ∼ 3.08, p < .05), suggesting it is associated with longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence. Conclusions The ASDE's unique predictive utility may rest on its comprehensive representation of contextual elements to support this patterning of

Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daud, A.H.

1996-01-01

This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

1998-01-01

Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

A prototype expert system 'SMART' for water chemistry control in reactor water circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rangarajan, S.; Narasimhan, S.V.

1998-01-01

The operational safety of a power plant depends mainly on the material compatibility of the system materials with the environment. However, for an operating plant, the material is almost fixed and hence one can improve the safety by controlling the surrounding environment. From the economy point of view, the plant availability factor as well as plant life extension (PLEX) are important considerations and these necessitate a systematic approach for continuous parametric monitoring, rapid data analysis and diagnosis for controlling the water chemistry regime. A prototype expert system 'SMART' was developed in BASIC language. The expert system consists of four modules. The DATA HANDLER module controls all the data handling functions and graphical display of the data parameters. It also generates weekly and monthly reports of the water chemistry data. The DATA INTERPRETER module compares the experimental data with the theoretically calculated values and predicts the presence of impurity ingress in the system. The CHEMISTRY EXPERT contains the knowledge base about the various sub-systems. All the water chemistry specifications are translated in the form of IF... THEN.. rules and are stored in this module. The expert system inferences with the forward chain reasoning mechanism to identify the diagnostic parameters by consulting the knowledge base and applying the appropriate rules. The ACTION EXPERT module collects all the diagnostic parameters and suggests the operator, the remedial actions/counter measures that should be taken immediately. This rule based system can be expanded to accommodate different water chemistry regimes. (author)

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lamb

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Scour (localised erosion during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

An algebraic method for constructing stable and consistent autoregressive filters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harlim, John; Hong, Hoon; Robbins, Jacob L.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the classical stability condition for the AR model. By consistent, we refer to the classical consistency constraints of Adams–Bashforth methods of order-two. One attractive feature of this algebraic method is that the model parameters can be obtained without directly knowing any training data set as opposed to many standard, regression-based parameterization methods. It takes only long-time average statistics as inputs. The proposed method provides a discretization time step interval which guarantees the existence of stable and consistent AR model and simultaneously produces the parameters for the AR models. In our numerical examples with two chaotic time series with different characteristics of decaying time scales, we find that the proposed AR models produce significantly more accurate short-term predictive skill and comparable filtering skill relative to the linear regression-based AR models. These encouraging results are robust across wide ranges of discretization times, observation times, and observation noise variances. Finally, we also find that the proposed model produces an improved short-time prediction relative to the linear regression-based AR-models in forecasting a data set that characterizes the variability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, a dominant tropical atmospheric wave pattern

Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

2010-01-01

-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

Expert system aids transport regulation users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

1990-01-01

During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

1991-12-01

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

OpenAIRE

Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

2016-01-01

Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

2017-11-01

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Dahlman

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

2011-07-01

This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Accurate Prediction of Sepsis in the ICU.

Science.gov (United States)

Nemati, Shamim; Holder, Andre; Razmi, Fereshteh; Stanley, Matthew D; Clifford, Gari D; Buchman, Timothy G

2018-04-01

Sepsis is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in critically ill patients. Early intervention with antibiotics improves survival in septic patients. However, no clinically validated system exists for real-time prediction of sepsis onset. We aimed to develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm for early prediction of sepsis. Observational cohort study. Academic medical center from January 2013 to December 2015. Over 31,000 admissions to the ICUs at two Emory University hospitals (development cohort), in addition to over 52,000 ICU patients from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III ICU database (validation cohort). Patients who met the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis (Sepsis-3) prior to or within 4 hours of their ICU admission were excluded, resulting in roughly 27,000 and 42,000 patients within our development and validation cohorts, respectively. None. High-resolution vital signs time series and electronic medical record data were extracted. A set of 65 features (variables) were calculated on hourly basis and passed to the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert algorithm to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours (where T = 12, 8, 6, or 4). Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert was used to predict onset of sepsis in the proceeding T hours and to produce a list of the most significant contributing factors. For the 12-, 8-, 6-, and 4-hour ahead prediction of sepsis, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic in the range of 0.83-0.85. Performance of the Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert on the development and validation cohorts was indistinguishable. Using data available in the ICU in real-time, Artificial Intelligence Sepsis Expert can accurately predict the onset of sepsis in an ICU patient 4-12 hours prior to clinical recognition. A prospective study is necessary to determine the

Critical thinking traits of top-tier experts and implications for computer science education

Science.gov (United States)

Bushey, Dean E.

A documented shortage of technical leadership and top-tier performers in computer science jeopardizes the technological edge, security, and economic well-being of the nation. The 2005 President's Information and Technology Advisory Committee (PITAC) Report on competitiveness in computational sciences highlights the major impact of science, technology, and innovation in keeping America competitive in the global marketplace. It stresses the fact that the supply of science, technology, and engineering experts is at the core of America's technological edge, national competitiveness and security. However, recent data shows that both undergraduate and postgraduate production of computer scientists is falling. The decline is "a quiet crisis building in the United States," a crisis that, if allowed to continue unchecked, could endanger America's well-being and preeminence among the world's nations. Past research on expert performance has shown that the cognitive traits of critical thinking, creativity, and problem solving possessed by top-tier performers can be identified, observed and measured. The studies show that the identified attributes are applicable across many domains and disciplines. Companies have begun to realize that cognitive skills are important for high-level performance and are reevaluating the traditional academic standards they have used to predict success for their top-tier performers in computer science. Previous research in the computer science field has focused either on programming skills of its experts or has attempted to predict the academic success of students at the undergraduate level. This study, on the other hand, examines the critical-thinking skills found among experts in the computer science field in order to explore the questions, "What cognitive skills do outstanding performers possess that make them successful?" and "How do currently used measures of academic performance correlate to critical-thinking skills among students?" The results

Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

1991-03-01

To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

Expert systems in clinical practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud-Salis, J.L.

1987-01-01

The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

Renewal of JOYO plant operation management expert tool (JOYPET)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okawa, Toshikatsu; Aita, Tsuyoshi; Murakami, Takanori; Ito, Hideaki; Aoki; Hiroshi; Oda, Toshihiro

2004-03-01

JOYO Plant Operation Management Expert Tool system named JOYPET has been developed with the aim of confirming the stable and safety operation of JOYO and improving operational reliability in future FBR plants. New JOYPET system was designed and manufactured in 2002, and began on operation in 2003, because the former system, which was designed in 1988 and operated from 1991 to 2002, was superannuated, and it was difficult to obtain alternative hardwares and replace parts. The difference between the former system and the later new one was adopted the web-online system to use LAN (Local Area Network) instead of the host and the terminal computer system. Then the new system enabled to take unitary document management for reactor operation, and each person was able to search, refer and make document on line directly. This paper summarized the new JOYPET system design, manufacturing, system constitution and operation actual result. (author)

Expert Witness

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adele

formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1988-01-01

An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

Development and assessment of an Al expert system for the monitoring and diagnosis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeuchi, K.; Gagnon, A.; Cheung, A.C.; Meyer, P.E.

1988-01-01

Due to the rapid progress in microcomputer and software development, artificial intelligence (AI) expert systems of practical value can be built into microcomputers. An expert system for nuclear plant surveillance, diagnostics, and prognostics was developed using the Texas Instruments AI shell, Personal Consultant Plus (PC-plus) on an IBM PCAT. This expert system runs in a surveillance mode to find an abnormal operating condition. Once an abnormal behavior is found,it switches to a diagnostics mode to identify the cause of difficult, such as steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and leak. Then, the prognostics mode can be activated to predict the consequences. For this purpose, the knowledge of experts at Westinghouse for nuclear safety has been collected and processed to construct parameters and rules within the framework of a logic tree. The expert system may be used in an on-line mode via a connection to the plant computer, safety parameter display system, or a plant simulator. In addition to evaluating the diagnosis of an event and providing appropriate information required to generate an event report, this tool can also be used to review the normal recorded plant data daily to assure that no abnormal events have occurred. A limited assessment of the expert system was performed and is presented

Expert Systems in Reference Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

1989-01-01

Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

Development of an expert system for signal validation: Topical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qualls, A.L.; Uhrig, R.E.; Upadhyaya, B.R.

1988-07-01

A signal validation and sensor information expert system is developed and applied to nuclear power plant subsystems. The expert system interactively provides the user with a list of sensors used to monitor a subsystem of a power plant and answers the user's questions about the characteristics of those sensors. The expert system performs an evaluation of the present output characteristics of an instrument channel. The evaluation is fully automated and is designed to mimic an operator's approach to signal validation. The evaluation is designed to detect three types of possible sensor anomalies: (1) incorrect average output, (2) improper noise level,and (3) incorrect response to a system perturbation. There are two tests used to detect each possible anomalous condition. One test is a comparison of the specified sensor characteristic against the same characteristic of its redundant sensors. The second test is a prediction of the sensor's expected behavior and comparison with its observed behavior. The evaluation was tested using operational data from twelve sensors used to monitor level, pressure, primary and secondary coolant flow rates, and hot and cold leg temperatures of a steam generator in a commercial nuclear power plant. The results of the testing demonstrated successfully that the evaluation detected the three possible anomalies, and was able to handle conflicting information using the comparison among redundant sensors and the system specific test used to detect the anomalies

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

ALICE Expert System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionita, C; Carena, F

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

Poor Agreement Among Expert Witnesses in Bile Duct Injury Malpractice Litigation An Expert Panel Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

Poor agreement among expert witnesses in bile duct injury malpractice litigation: an expert panel survey.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

1992-01-01

In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

Complexity factors and prediction of performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braarud, Per Oeyvind

1998-03-01

Understanding of what makes a control room situation difficult to handle is important when studying operator performance, both with respect to prediction as well as improvement of the human performance. A factor analytic approach identified eight factors from operators' answers to an 39 item questionnaire about complexity of the operator's task in the control room. A Complexity Profiling Questionnaire was developed, based on the factor analytic results from the operators' conception of complexity. The validity of the identified complexity factors was studied by prediction of crew performance and prediction of plant performance from ratings of the complexity of scenarios. The scenarios were rated by both process experts and the operators participating in the scenarios, using the Complexity Profiling Questionnaire. The process experts' complexity ratings predicted both crew performance and plant performance, while the operators' rating predicted plant performance only. The results reported are from initial studies of complexity, and imply a promising potential for further studies of the concept. The approach used in the study as well as the reported results are discussed. A chapter about the structure of the conception of complexity, and a chapter about further research conclude the report. (author)

Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitter, Gary G.

1989-01-01

Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

Mind the Gaps: Expert and Non-Expert Differences in Conceptualising the Geological Subsurface.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, H.; Stewart, I. S.; Stokes, A.; Pahl, S.

2017-12-01

In communicating geoscience topics, emphasis is often given to approaches such as the use of narrative to make a message engaging and reducing the use of jargon to ensure that it is understood by as wide a group of people as possible. Whilst these are undeniably important techniques to promote effective communication, an aspect of geoscience communication that is often overlooked is the publics' conceptual frameworks about core geoscience concepts. The consideration of different conceptual frameworks fits with the need to ensure that the framing is appropriate for the message, but it extends beyond simple framing into more complicated issues of addressing and incorporating pre- and mis-conceptions in geoscience. In a study examining expert and non-expert cognitive (mental) models of the geological subsurface in south-west England, several gaps were found between the fundamental ways that experts and non-experts conceptualise this invisible realm. Of these, three gaps were considered to be particularly important and common to many participants: the use of spatial reasoning; the application of surface experiences to subsurface processes; and the connection between the surface and subsurface. This paper will examine the evidence for these three important conceptual gaps between specialists and non-specialists and will address how this type of cognitive study can help improve effective geoscience communication.

Sixty-four slice spiral CT angiography does not predict the functional relevance of coronary artery stenoses in patients with stable angina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hacker, Marcus; Hack, Nicolas; Hahn, Klaus; Tiling, Reinhold; Jakobs, Tobias; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Becker, Christoph; Reiser, Maximilian; Ziegler, Franz von; Knez, Andreas; Koenig, Andreas; Klauss, Volker

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate spiral multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) angiography using 64-slice technique in the detection of functionally relevant coronary artery stenoses (CAS). Thirty-eight patients (62±11 years, 28 men) with stable angina (26 with suspected and 12 with known coronary artery disease) were investigated using 64-slice MDCT angiography and gated myocardial perfusion SPECT (gated SPECT); a subgroup of 30 patients had additional invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Stenoses with luminal narrowing of ≥50% were defined as ''significant'' in MDCT angiography and ICA. MDCT angiography was compared with gated SPECT and the combination of gated SPECT plus ICA with respect to the detection of functionally relevant CAS. The sensitivity, specificity and negative and positive predictive values of MDCT angiography in detecting reversible perfusion defects on gated SPECT were 63%, 80%, 94% and 32%, respectively, in vessel-based analysis and 71%, 62%, 72% and 60%, respectively, in patient-based analysis. If only reversible perfusion defects on gated SPECT with CAS ≥50% on ICA were considered, the sensitivity, specificity and negative and positive predictive values were, respectively, 85%, 79%, 98% and 33% for vessel-based analysis and 85%, 59%, 83% and 61% for patient-based analysis. Sixty-four slice MDCT angiography failed to predict the functional relevance of CAS, but had a high negative predictive value in the exclusion of functionally relevant CAS in symptomatic patients. (orig.)

Sixty-four slice spiral CT angiography does not predict the functional relevance of coronary artery stenoses in patients with stable angina

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hacker, Marcus; Hack, Nicolas; Hahn, Klaus; Tiling, Reinhold [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Munich (Germany); Jakobs, Tobias; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Becker, Christoph; Reiser, Maximilian [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Ziegler, Franz von; Knez, Andreas [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Cardiology, Klinikum Grosshadern, Munich (Germany); Koenig, Andreas; Klauss, Volker [Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Department of Cardiology, Medizinische Poliklinik-Innenstadt, Munich (Germany)

2007-01-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate spiral multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) angiography using 64-slice technique in the detection of functionally relevant coronary artery stenoses (CAS). Thirty-eight patients (62{+-}11 years, 28 men) with stable angina (26 with suspected and 12 with known coronary artery disease) were investigated using 64-slice MDCT angiography and gated myocardial perfusion SPECT (gated SPECT); a subgroup of 30 patients had additional invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Stenoses with luminal narrowing of {>=}50% were defined as ''significant'' in MDCT angiography and ICA. MDCT angiography was compared with gated SPECT and the combination of gated SPECT plus ICA with respect to the detection of functionally relevant CAS. The sensitivity, specificity and negative and positive predictive values of MDCT angiography in detecting reversible perfusion defects on gated SPECT were 63%, 80%, 94% and 32%, respectively, in vessel-based analysis and 71%, 62%, 72% and 60%, respectively, in patient-based analysis. If only reversible perfusion defects on gated SPECT with CAS {>=}50% on ICA were considered, the sensitivity, specificity and negative and positive predictive values were, respectively, 85%, 79%, 98% and 33% for vessel-based analysis and 85%, 59%, 83% and 61% for patient-based analysis. Sixty-four slice MDCT angiography failed to predict the functional relevance of CAS, but had a high negative predictive value in the exclusion of functionally relevant CAS in symptomatic patients. (orig.)

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

Psychological scaling of expert estimates of human error probabilities: application to nuclear power plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, K.; Gaddy, C.D.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a project to evaluate psychological scaling techniques for use in generating estimates of human error probabilities. The project evaluated two techniques: direct numerical estimation and paired comparisons. Expert estimates were found to be consistent across and within judges. Convergent validity was good, in comparison to estimates in a handbook of human reliability. Predictive validity could not be established because of the lack of actual relative frequencies of error (which will be a difficulty inherent in validation of any procedure used to estimate HEPs). Application of expert estimates in probabilistic risk assessment and in human factors is discussed

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

Expert systems and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

1984-01-01

There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

Paradigms and building tools for real-time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, U.; Flasinski, M.; Hagge, L.; Ohrenberg, K.

1994-01-01

An expert system is a software which can simulate the problem solving behavior of a human expert. The rule-based paradigm is chosen to describe the different aspects involved in expert system development. Differences between expert systems and common procedural or object-oriented programs are investigated. Expert system shells are introduced as a building tool for expert systems, together with some guidelines on the evaluation of such shells. A discussion of special needs for real-time expert system development concludes the paper

Transvaginal ultrasound assessment of myometrial and cervical stroma invasion in women with endometrial cancer -interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, LS; Lindqvist, PG; Flöter Rådestad, A

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To assess interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists in the prediction of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion by transvaginal ultrasound in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: Video-clips of the corpus- and cervix uteri of 53 women...... with endometrial cancer, examined preoperatively by the same ultrasound expert, were integrated in a digitalized survey. Nine ultrasound experts and 9 gynaecologists evaluated presence or absence of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion. Histopathology from hysterectomy specimen was used as gold standard.......001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative ultrasound assessment of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion in endometrial cancer is best performed by ultrasound experts, as they show a higher degree of agreement to histopathology and higher interobserver reproducibility in the assessment of cervical stromal invasion....

ART-Ada: An Ada-based expert system tool

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

1991-01-01

The Department of Defense mandate to standardize on Ada as the language for software systems development has resulted in increased interest in making expert systems technology readily available in Ada environments. NASA's Space Station Freedom is an example of the large Ada software development projects that will require expert systems in the 1990's. Another large scale application that can benefit from Ada based expert system tool technology is the Pilot's Associate (PA) expert system project for military combat aircraft. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) Ada, an Ada Expert system tool is described. ART-Ada allow applications of a C-based expert system tool called ART-IM to be deployed in various Ada environments. ART-Ada is being used to implement several prototype expert systems for NASA's Space Station Freedom Program and the U.S. Air Force.

Methodology toward second generation expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.

1989-01-01

So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Expert PLSQL Practices

CERN Document Server

Beresniewicz, John

2011-01-01

Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

TOF for heavy stable particle identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, C.Y.

1983-01-01

Searching for heavy stable particle production in a new energy region of hadron-hadron collisions is of fundamental theoretical interest. Observation of such particles produced in high energy collisions would indicate the existence of stable heavy leptons or any massive hadronic system carrying new quantum numbers. Experimentally, evidence of its production has not been found for PP collisions either at FNAL or at the CERN ISR for √S = 23 and 62 GeV respectively. However, many theories beyond the standard model do predict its existence on a mass scale ranging from 50 to a few hundred GeV. If so, it would make a high luminosity TeV collider an extremely ideal hunting ground for searching the production of such a speculated object. To measure the mass of a heavy stable charged particle, one usually uses its time of flight (TOF) and/or dE/dX information. For heavy neutral particle, one hopes it may decay at some later time after its production. Hence a pair of jets or a jet associated with a high P/sub t/ muon originated from some places other than the interacting point (IP) of the colliding beams may be a good signal. In this note, we examine the feasibility of TOF measurement on a heavy stable particle produced in PP collisions at √S = 1 TeV and a luminosity of 10 33 cm -2 sec -1 with a single arm spectrometer pointing to the IP

Expert systems for superalloy studies

Science.gov (United States)

Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

1990-01-01

There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

Expert systems as decision tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, C.K.

1989-01-01

The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parcy, J.P.

1982-09-01

A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

Science.gov (United States)

André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

2008-02-01

In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

Applications of geographic information system and expert system for urban runoff and water quality management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Beum-Hee [Pai Chai University, Taejeon(Korea)

2001-06-30

It is very important to select appropriate methods of collecting, predicting, and analyzing information for the development of urban water resources and the prevention of disasters. Thus, in this study an accurate data generation method is developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). The methods of development and application of an expert system are suggested to solve more efficiently the problems of water resources and quality induced by the rapid urbanization. The time-varying data in a large region, the An-Yang Cheon watershed, were reasonably obtained by the application of the GIS using ARC/INFO and RS data. The ESPE (Expert System for Parameter Estimation), an expert system is developed using the CLIPS 6.0. The simulated results showed agreement with the measured data globally. These methods are expected to efficiently simulate the runoff and water quality in the rapidly varying urban area. (author). 10 refs., 4 tabs., 10 figs.

21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... choose members for the qualified expert panel in accordance with selection criteria listed in paragraph... whether the proposed qualified expert panel meets the selection criteria prior to the panel beginning its... Committee Act, as amended, 5 U.S.C. App. (b) Criteria for the selection of a qualified expert panel. (1) A...

Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

Science.gov (United States)

Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

Measuring the Effectiveness of Gamesourcing Expert Oil Painting Annotations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky

2014-01-01

htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the

STEMing the tide: using ingroup experts to inoculate women's self-concept in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).

Science.gov (United States)

Stout, Jane G; Dasgupta, Nilanjana; Hunsinger, Matthew; McManus, Melissa A

2011-02-01

Three studies tested a stereotype inoculation model, which proposed that contact with same-sex experts (advanced peers, professionals, professors) in academic environments involving science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) enhances women's self-concept in STEM, attitudes toward STEM, and motivation to pursue STEM careers. Two cross-sectional controlled experiments and 1 longitudinal naturalistic study in a calculus class revealed that exposure to female STEM experts promoted positive implicit attitudes and stronger implicit identification with STEM (Studies 1-3), greater self-efficacy in STEM (Study 3), and more effort on STEM tests (Study 1). Studies 2 and 3 suggested that the benefit of seeing same-sex experts is driven by greater subjective identification and connectedness with these individuals, which in turn predicts enhanced self-efficacy, domain identification, and commitment to pursue STEM careers. Importantly, women's own self-concept benefited from contact with female experts even though negative stereotypes about their gender and STEM remained active. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

[Telemedicine correlation in retinopathy of prematurity between experts and non-expert observers].

Science.gov (United States)

Ossandón, D; Zanolli, M; López, J P; Stevenson, R; Agurto, R; Cartes, C

2015-01-01

To study the correlation between expert and non-expert observers in the reporting images for the diagnosis of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in a telemedicine setting. A cross-sectional, multicenter study, consisting of 25 sets of images of patients screened for ROP. They were evaluated by two experts in ROP and 1 non-expert and classified according to telemedicine classification, zone, stage, plus disease and Ells referral criteria. The telemedicine classification was: no ROP, mild ROP, type 2 ROP, or ROP that requires treatment. Ells referral criteria is defined as the presence at least one of the following: ROP in zone I, Stage 3 in zone I or II, or plus+ For statistical analysis, SPSS 16.0 was used. For correlation, Kappa value was performed. There was a high correlation between observers for the assessment of ROP stage (0.75; 0.54-0.88) plus disease (0.85; 0.71-0.92), and Ells criteria (0.89; 0.83-1.0). However, inter-observer values were low for zone (0.41; 0.27-0.54) and telemedicine classification (0.43; 0.33-0.6). When evaluating telemedicine images by examiners with different levels of expertise in ROP, the Ells criteria gave the best correlation. In addition, stage of disease and plus disease have good correlation among observers. In contrast, the correlation between observers was low for zone and telemedicine classification. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Expert system for liquid low-level waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.

1992-01-01

An expert system prototype has been developed to support system analysis activities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for waste management tasks. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. The concept under which the expert system has been designed is integration of knowledge. There are many sources of knowledge (data bases, text files, simulation programs, etc.) that an expert would regularly consult in order to solve a problem of liquid waste management. The expert would normally know how to extract the information from these different sources of knowledge. The general scope of this project would be to include as much pertinent information as possible within the boundaries of the expert system. As a result, the user, who may not be an expert in every aspect of liquid waste management, may be able to apply the content of the information to a specific waste problem. This paper gives the methodological steps to develop the expert system under this general framework

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eggermont, G

2000-07-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised.

Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheroghe Popescu

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

Expert and Novice Approaches to Using Graphs: Evidence from Eye-Track Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Wirth, K. R.; Lindgren, J. M.

2015-12-01

Professionals and students in geology use an array of graphs to study the earth, but relatively little detail is known about how users interact with these graphs. Comprehension of graphical information in the earth sciences is further complicated by the common use of non-traditional formats (e.g., inverted axes, logarithmic scales, normalized plots, ternary diagrams). Many educators consider graph-reading skills an important outcome of general education science curricula, so it is critical that we understand both the development of graph-reading skills and the instructional practices that are most efficacious. Eye-tracking instruments provide quantitative information about eye movements and offer important insights into the development of expertise in graph use. We measured the graph reading skills and eye movements of novices (students with a variety of majors and educational attainment) and experts (faculty and staff from a variety of disciplines) while observing traditional and non-traditional graph formats. Individuals in the expert group consistently demonstrated significantly greater accuracy in responding to questions (e.g., retrieval, interpretation, prediction) about graphs. Among novices, only the number of college math and science courses correlated with response accuracy. Interestingly, novices and experts exhibited similar eye-tracks when they first encountered a new graph; they typically scanned through the title, x and y-axes, and data regions in the first 5-15 seconds. However, experts are readily distinguished from novices by a greater number of eye movements (20-35%) between the data and other graph elements (e.g., title, x-axis, y-axis) both during and after the initial orientation phase. We attribute the greater eye movements between the different graph elements an outcome of the generally better-developed self-regulation skills (goal-setting, monitoring, self-evaluation) that likely characterize individuals in our expert group.

Comparison of tree types of models for the prediction of final academic achievement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvana Gasar

2002-12-01

Full Text Available For efficient prevention of inappropriate secondary school choices and by that academic failure, school counselors need a tool for the prediction of individual pupil's final academic achievements. Using data mining techniques on pupils' data base and expert modeling, we developed several models for the prediction of final academic achievement in an individual high school educational program. For data mining, we used statistical analyses, clustering and two machine learning methods: developing classification decision trees and hierarchical decision models. Using an expert system shell DEX, an expert system, based on a hierarchical multi-attribute decision model, was developed manually. All the models were validated and evaluated from the viewpoint of their applicability. The predictive accuracy of DEX models and decision trees was equal and very satisfying, as it reached the predictive accuracy of an experienced counselor. With respect on the efficiency and difficulties in developing models, and relatively rapid changing of our education system, we propose that decision trees are used in further development of predictive models.

Expert judgment based multi-criteria decision model to address uncertainties in risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flari, Villie; Chaudhry, Qasim; Neslo, Rabin; Cooke, Roger

2011-01-01

Currently, risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products is considered difficult due to the large number of uncertainties involved. We developed an approach which could address some of the main uncertainties through the use of expert judgment. Our approach employs a multi-criteria decision model, based on probabilistic inversion that enables capturing experts’ preferences in regard to safety of nanotechnology-enabled food products, and identifying their opinions in regard to the significance of key criteria that are important in determining the safety of such products. An advantage of these sample-based techniques is that they provide out-of-sample validation and therefore a robust scientific basis. This validation in turn adds predictive power to the model developed. We achieved out-of-sample validation in two ways: (1) a portion of the expert preference data was excluded from the model’s fitting and was then predicted by the model fitted on the remaining rankings and (2) a (partially) different set of experts generated new scenarios, using the same criteria employed in the model, and ranked them; their ranks were compared with ranks predicted by the model. The degree of validation in each method was less than perfect but reasonably substantial. The validated model we applied captured and modelled experts’ preferences regarding safety of hypothetical nanotechnology-enabled food products. It appears therefore that such an approach can provide a promising route to explore further for assessing the risk of nanotechnology-enabled food products.

Climate Prediction Center

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Enter Search Term(s): Search Search the CPC Go NCEP Quarterly Newsletter Climate Highlights U.S Climate-Weather El Niño/La Niña MJO Blocking AAO, AO, NAO, PNA Climatology Global Monsoons Expert

Stable propagation of interacting crack systems and modeling of damage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bazant, Z.P.; Tabbara, M.R.

1989-01-01

This paper presents general thermodynamic criteria for the stable states and stable path of structures with an interacting system of cracks. In combination with numerical finite element results for various cracked structure geometries, these criteria indicate that the crack response path of structures may exhibit bifurcations, after which the symmetry of the crack system is broken and some cracks grow preferentially. The problem is of interest for the prediction of ultimate loads, ductility and energy absorption capability of nuclear concrete structures as well as structures made of composites and ceramics

GIS Supported Landslide Susceptibility Modeling at Regional Scale: An Expert-Based Fuzzy Weighting Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos Chalkias

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is landslide susceptibility assessment using fuzzy expert-based modeling. Factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, land cover, precipitation and seismicity were considered. Expert-based fuzzy weighting (EFW approach was used to combine these factors for landslide susceptibility mapping (Peloponnese, Greece. This method produced a landslide susceptibility map of the investigated area. The landslides under investigation have more or less same characteristics: lateral based and downslope shallow movement of soils or rocks. The validation of the model reveals, that predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences. Hence, the obtained landslide susceptibility map could be acceptable, for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation at regional scale.

Combination and Selection of Traffic Safety Expert Judgments for the Prevention of Driving Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrés Redchuk

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe a new framework to combine experts’ judgments for the prevention of driving risks in a cabin truck. In addition, the methodology shows how to choose among the experts the one whose predictions fit best the environmental conditions. The methodology is applied over data sets obtained from a high immersive cabin truck simulator in natural driving conditions. A nonparametric model, based in Nearest Neighbors combined with Restricted Least Squared methods is developed. Three experts were asked to evaluate the driving risk using a Visual Analog Scale (VAS, in order to measure the driving risk in a truck simulator where the vehicle dynamics factors were stored. Numerical results show that the methodology is suitable for embedding in real time systems.

Expert Cold Structure Development

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

2011-05-01

The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

Artificial intelligence/expert (AI/EX) systems for steelworks pollution control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schofield, N.; Le Louer, P.; Mirabile, D.; Hubner, R. [Corus UK Ltd., Rotherham (United Kingdom)

2002-07-01

The objectives of this project have been to develop and apply artificial intelligence and expert system (AI/EX) methods to improve the control and operational performance of steelworks' pollution control equipment and to assess the viability and benefits of using such systems in dynamic process plant applications. Four distinct sub-projects were carried out: an expert system incorporating knowledge-based rules and neural network simulations has been developed by Corus which provides plant personnel with a real-time condition monitoring tool for the plant. Abnormalities with plant operation are now instantly recognised and alarmed, allowing prioritised maintenance to increase plant availability. The LECES project focused on studies concerning three different sites in order to evaluate predictive emission monitoring systems using neural networks to replace conventional instrumental and controls in steelworks' combustion systems. VAI developed a software template for pollution control expert systems to demonstrate the transferability of AI/EX technology. This has been done through the development of a validated process database containing data from the Corus sub-project and the subsequent integration of this data with dynamic emission models to produce rules for input to an evaluation database. CSM developed a fuzzy logic controlled process management system applied to the biological treatment of coke-oven waste water. A pilot plant has been installed and results on simulations performed using the fuzzy logic system linked to a neural network simulator show that it is possible to obtain great advantages in the biological pilot plant performance.

Expert judgment for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

2000-01-01

Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

Waste disposal experts meet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1959-01-15

Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

Expert system for fault diagnosis in process control valves using fuzzy-logic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carneiro, Alvaro L.G., E-mail: carneiro@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Porto Junior, Almir C.S., E-mail: almir@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CIANA/CTMSP), Ipero, SP (Brazil). Centro de Instrucao e Adestramento Nuclear de ARAMAR

2013-07-01

The models of asset maintenance of a process plant basically are classified in corrective maintenance, preventive, predictive and proactive (online). The corrective maintenance is the elementary and most obvious way of the maintenance models. The preventive maintenance consists in a fault prevention work, based on statistical studies that can lead to low efficiency or even an unexpected shutdown of the plant. Predictive maintenance aims to prevent equipment or systems failures through monitoring and tracking of parameters, allowing continuous operation as long as possible. The proactive maintenance usually includes predictive maintenance, emphasizing the root cause analysis of the failure. The maintenance predictive/proactive planning frequently uses software that integrates data from different systems, which facilitates a quick and effective decision- making. In nuclear plants this model has an important role regarding the reliability of equipment and systems. The main focus of this work is to study the development of a model of non-intrusive monitoring and diagnosis applied to process control valves using artificial intelligence by fuzzy logic technique, contributing in the development of predictive methodologies identifying faults in incipient state. The control valve analyzed belongs to a steam plant which simulates the secondary circuit of a PWR nuclear reactor - Pressurized Water Reactor. This study makes use of MATLAB language through the fuzzy logic toolbox which uses the method of inference Mamdani, acting by fuzzy conjunction, through Triangular Norms (t-norm) and Triangular Conorms (t-conorm). As input variables are used air pressure and displacement of the valve stem. Input data coming into the fuzzy system by graph of the automation system Delta V ® available in the plant, which receives a signal of electric current from an 'intelligent' positioned installed on the valve. The output variable is the 'status' of the valve. Through a

Expert system for fault diagnosis in process control valves using fuzzy-logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carneiro, Alvaro L.G.; Porto Junior, Almir C.S.

2013-01-01

The models of asset maintenance of a process plant basically are classified in corrective maintenance, preventive, predictive and proactive (online). The corrective maintenance is the elementary and most obvious way of the maintenance models. The preventive maintenance consists in a fault prevention work, based on statistical studies that can lead to low efficiency or even an unexpected shutdown of the plant. Predictive maintenance aims to prevent equipment or systems failures through monitoring and tracking of parameters, allowing continuous operation as long as possible. The proactive maintenance usually includes predictive maintenance, emphasizing the root cause analysis of the failure. The maintenance predictive/proactive planning frequently uses software that integrates data from different systems, which facilitates a quick and effective decision- making. In nuclear plants this model has an important role regarding the reliability of equipment and systems. The main focus of this work is to study the development of a model of non-intrusive monitoring and diagnosis applied to process control valves using artificial intelligence by fuzzy logic technique, contributing in the development of predictive methodologies identifying faults in incipient state. The control valve analyzed belongs to a steam plant which simulates the secondary circuit of a PWR nuclear reactor - Pressurized Water Reactor. This study makes use of MATLAB language through the fuzzy logic toolbox which uses the method of inference Mamdani, acting by fuzzy conjunction, through Triangular Norms (t-norm) and Triangular Conorms (t-conorm). As input variables are used air pressure and displacement of the valve stem. Input data coming into the fuzzy system by graph of the automation system Delta V ® available in the plant, which receives a signal of electric current from an 'intelligent' positioned installed on the valve. The output variable is the 'status' of the valve. Through a rule base

[Medical expert consensus in AH on the clinical use of triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in Spain].

Science.gov (United States)

Mazón, P; Galve, E; Gómez, J; Gorostidi, M; Górriz, J L; Mediavilla, J D

The opinion of experts (different specialties) on the triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in clinical practice may differ. Online questionnaire with controversial aspects of the triple therapy answered by panel of experts in hypertension (HT) using two-round modified Delphi method. The questionnaire was completed by 158 experts: Internal Medicine (49), Nephrology (26), Cardiology (83). Consensus was reached (agreement) on 27/45 items (60%); 7 items showed differences statistically significant. Consensus was reached regarding: Predictive factors in the need for combination therapy and its efficacy vs. increasing the dose of a pretreatment, and advantage of triple therapy (prescription/adherence/cost/pressure control) vs. free combination. This consensus provides an overview of the clinical use of triple therapy in moderate-severe and resistant/difficult to control HT. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

2003-01-01

Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual

Classification of health webpages as expert and non expert with a reduced set of cross-language features.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabar, Natalia; Krivine, Sonia; Jaulent, Marie-Christine

2007-10-11

Making the distinction between expert and non expert health documents can help users to select the information which is more suitable for them, according to whether they are familiar or not with medical terminology. This issue is particularly important for the information retrieval area. In our work we address this purpose through stylistic corpus analysis and the application of machine learning algorithms. Our hypothesis is that this distinction can be performed on the basis of a small number of features and that such features can be language and domain independent. The used features were acquired in source corpus (Russian language, diabetes topic) and then tested on target (French language, pneumology topic) and source corpora. These cross-language features show 90% precision and 93% recall with non expert documents in source language; and 85% precision and 74% recall with expert documents in target language.

Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

1993-02-01

This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

Expert judgement in performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

2000-01-01

This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

Expert judgement in performance assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2000-01-01

This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

Wine Expertise Predicts Taste Phenotype.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, John E; Pickering, Gary J

2012-03-01

Taste phenotypes have long been studied in relation to alcohol intake, dependence, and family history, with contradictory findings. However, on balance - with appropriate caveats about populations tested, outcomes measured and psychophysical methods used - an association between variation in taste responsiveness and some alcohol behaviors is supported. Recent work suggests super-tasting (operationalized via propylthiouracil (PROP) bitterness) not only associates with heightened response but also with more acute discrimination between stimuli. Here, we explore relationships between food and beverage adventurousness and taste phenotype. A convenience sample of wine drinkers (n=330) were recruited in Ontario and phenotyped for PROP bitterness via filter paper disk. They also filled out a short questionnaire regarding willingness to try new foods, alcoholic beverages and wines as well as level of wine involvement, which was used to classify them as a wine expert (n=110) or wine consumer (n=220). In univariate logisitic models, food adventurousness predicted trying new wines and beverages but not expertise. Likewise, wine expertise predicted willingness to try new wines and beverages but not foods. In separate multivariate logistic models, willingness to try new wines and beverages was predicted by expertise and food adventurousness but not PROP. However, mean PROP bitterness was higher among wine experts than wine consumers, and the conditional distribution functions differed between experts and consumers. In contrast, PROP means and distributions did not differ with food adventurousness. These data suggest individuals may self-select for specific professions based on sensory ability (i.e., an active gene-environment correlation) but phenotype does not explain willingness to try new stimuli.

Liquid low level waste management expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

1991-01-01

An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

A method for using expert judgement in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

1997-03-01

The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

Expert system characteristics and potential applications in safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, L.D.

1986-01-01

The general growth of expert, knowledge-based (KB) or rule based systems will significantly increase in the next three to five years. Improvements in computer hardware (speed, reduced size, power) and software (rule based, data based, user interfaces) in recent years are providing the foundations for the growth of expert systems. A byproduct of this growth will undoubtedly be the application of expert systems to various safeguards problems. Characteristics of these expert systems will involve 1) multiple rules governing an outcome, 2) confidence factors on individual variables and rule sets, 3) priority, cost, and risk based rule sets, and 4) the reasoning behind the advice or decision given by the expert system. This paper presents characteristics, structures, and examples of simple rule based systems. Potential application areas for these expert systems may include training, operations, management, designs, evaluations, and specific hardware operation

A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høffding, Simon

This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

EPRI expert system activities for nuclear utility industry application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, J.A.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on expert systems which have reached a level of maturity where they offer considerable benefits for the nuclear utility industry. The ability of expert systems to enhance expertise makes them an important tool for the nuclear utility industry in the areas of engineering, operations and maintenance. Benefits of expert system applications include comprehensive and consistent reasoning, reduction of time required for activities, retention of human expertise and ability to utilize multiple experts knowledge for an activity. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has been performing four basic activities to help the nuclear industry take advantage of this expert system technology. The first is the development of expert system building tools which are tailored to nuclear utility industry applications. The second is the development of expert system applications. The third is work in developing a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems. The last is technology transfer activities to help the nuclear utility industry benefit from expert systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe the EPRI activities

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

2016-04-01

Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Illovsky, Michael E.

1994-01-01

Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

Medical Physics expert and competence in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vano, E.; Lamn, I. N.; Guerra, A. del; Van Kleffens, H. J.

2003-01-01

The Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM on health protection of individuals against the dangers of ionizing radiation in relation to medical exposure, defines the Medical Physical Expert as an expert in radiation physics or radiation technology applied to exposure, within the scope of the Directive, whose training and competence to act is recognized by the competent authorities; and who, as appropriate, acts or gives advice on patient dosimetry, on the development and use of complex techniques and equipment, on optimization, on quality assurance, including quality control, and on other matters relating to radiation protection, concerning exposure within the scope of this Directive. As a consequence, it might be implied that his competence in radiation protection should also cover the staff and the public. In fact, the training programmes of medical physics experts include all the aspects concerning these topics. Some confusion could arise in the medical area when the Qualified Expert defined in the Council Directive 96/29/Euratom laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionizing radiation is considered. The Qualified Expert is defined as a person having the knowledge and training needed to carry out physical, technical or radiochemical tests enabling doses to be assessed, and to give advice in order to ensure effective protection of individuals and the correct operation of protective equipment, whose capacity to act a qualified expert is recognized by the competent authorities. A qualified expert may be assigned the technical responsibility for the tasks of radiation protection of workers and members of the public. In Europe, the Qualified Expert is acting at present in the Medical Area in countries where there are not enough Medical Physics Experts or in countries where this role was established before the publication of the Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM. Now, the coherent

Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

1992-01-01

The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

Development of an expert system for analysis of Shuttle atmospheric revitalization and pressure control subsystem anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Lafuse, Sharon A.

1991-01-01

The paper describes the Shuttle Leak Management Expert System (SLMES), a preprototype expert system developed to enable the ECLSS subsystem manager to analyze subsystem anomalies and to formulate flight procedures based on flight data. The SLMES combines the rule-based expert system technology with the traditional FORTRAN-based software into an integrated system. SLMES analyzes the data using rules, and, when it detects a problem that requires simulation, it sets up the input for the FORTRAN-based simulation program ARPCS2AT2, which predicts the cabin total pressure and composition as a function of time. The program simulates the pressure control system, the crew oxygen masks, the airlock repress/depress valves, and the leakage. When the simulation has completed, other SLMES rules are triggered to examine the results of simulation contrary to flight data and to suggest methods for correcting the problem. Results are then presented in form of graphs and tables.

Safety Tips from the Expert Witness.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Gary R.

1995-01-01

Many physical educators and coaches use the potential for liability to guide their decisions about conducting activities. By understanding expert witnesses' roles in negligence actions, surer planning, teaching, and coaching are possible. The paper describes issues that expert witnesses examine in negligence actions against physical educators,…

Uptake and distribution of 137Cs, stable Cs and K in rice plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsukada, Hirofumi; Hasegawa, Hidenao

2003-01-01

The uptake and distributions of 137 Cs, stable Cs and K were determined for rice plant components, including polished rice, rice bran, hulls, leaves, stems, and roots. The distribution of 137 Cs in polished rice and rice bran was similar to that of stable Cs, while that of K was different. The concentration ratios of Cs/K in leaves increased in older leaf blade positions, which meant that the translocation rate of stable Cs, was slower than that of K. At harvest the dry weight of polished rice accounted for 34% of the entire rice plant, while the distributions of stable Cs in the polished rice and the non-edible parts were 7 and 93%, respectively. These findings suggest that the transfer and distribution of stable Cs in rice plants are different from those of K, and the behavior of stable Cs provides a useful analogue in predicting the fate of 137 Cs in an agricultural environment. (author)

Interfrm Cooperation Strategy of Hyper-Growth and Stable-Growth ICT Firms in Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monika Golonka

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to compare the phenomenon of interfrm cooperation strategy in both hyper-growth, and stable-growth knowledge and technology–intensive frms, in a country characterized by a high level of generalized trust: Sweden. Methodology: Qualitative methods were incorporated: direct semistructured interviews with top managers in 13 ICT frms (8 hyper-growth and 5 stable-growth, analyzis of reports, corporate websites and press releases. Furthermore, interviews in 3 expert frms in the industry were conducted, facilitating interfrm cooperation. Conclusions: There were signifcant differences in interfrm cooperation strategy in two distinguished groups of the frms: hyper-growth, and stable-growth. Managers’ individual approaches to uncertainty, strategy and cooperation might be more important than institutional settings. The ICT frms operate in a constantly changing global environment and local context seems to have only a minor impact on the rules of the game in the industry. Research limitations: This study was a qualitative explorative approach as an introduction to further empirical research. Originality: The study presents an interfrm cooperation phenomenon incorporating different perspectives and settings. It contributes to alliance portfolio literature (forming and managing of alliance portfolio in a different context/country/industry, and enhances understanding of frm strategies characterized by different growth rates.

Stable isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, D.K.

1986-01-01

Seventy-five percent of the world's stable isotope supply comes from one producer, Oak Ridge Nuclear Laboratory (ORNL) in the US. Canadian concern is that foreign needs will be met only after domestic needs, thus creating a shortage of stable isotopes in Canada. This article describes the present situation in Canada (availability and cost) of stable isotopes, the isotope enrichment techniques, and related research programs at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories (CRNL)

Influence of Professional Affiliation on Expert's View on Welfare Measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dam Otten, Nina; Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn

2017-01-01

are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different...... between expert groups among swine experts. Inter-expert differences were more pronounced for both species. The results highlight the challenges of using expert weightings in aggregated welfare assessment models, as the choice of expert affiliation may play a confounding role in the final aggregation due...

Expert tool use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

2017-01-01

on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

Using the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research.

Science.gov (United States)

Jorm, Anthony F

2015-10-01

The article gives an introductory overview of the use of the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research. It explains the rationale for using the method, examines the range of uses to which it has been put in mental health research, and describes the stages of carrying out a Delphi study using examples from the literature. To ascertain the range of uses, a systematic search was carried out in PubMed. The article also examines the implications of 'wisdom of crowds' research for how to conduct Delphi studies. The Delphi method is a systematic way of determining expert consensus that is useful for answering questions that are not amenable to experimental and epidemiological methods. The validity of the approach is supported by 'wisdom of crowds' research showing that groups can make good judgements under certain conditions. In mental health research, the Delphi method has been used for making estimations where there is incomplete evidence (e.g. What is the global prevalence of dementia?), making predictions (e.g. What types of interactions with a person who is suicidal will reduce their chance of suicide?), determining collective values (e.g. What areas of research should be given greatest priority?) and defining foundational concepts (e.g. How should we define 'relapse'?). A range of experts have been used in Delphi research, including clinicians, researchers, consumers and caregivers. The Delphi method has a wide range of potential uses in mental health research. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Information Retrieval Diary of an Expert Technical Translator.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremmins, Edward T.

1984-01-01

Recommends use of entries from the information retrieval diary of Ted Crump, expert technical translator at the National Institute of Health, in the construction of computer models showing how expert translators solve problems of ambiguity in language. Expert and inexpert translation systems, eponyms, abbreviations, and alphabetic solutions are…

Studies of Stable Octupole Deformations in the Radium Region

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

The purpose of the present project is to locate and identify states in the atomic nuclei possessing stable pearshaped octupole deformation. Such states, formally related to the structures known in molecular physics, manifest themselves as families of parity doublets in odd nuclei.\\\\ \\\\ The best possibilities for observing stable octupole deformations are offered in the Ra-region. Both theoretical calculations and experimental indications support such expectations. Such indications are the non-observation of two-phonon octupole vibrational states in the ISOLDE studies of the even-even radium nuclei, and the reversed sign of the decoupling factor of the ground state band in |2|2|5Ra observed in the single-neutron transfer reactions. In order to establish the predicted strong E1 and E3-transitions between the parity doublets in odd nuclei with stable octupole deformations it is proposed to study conversion electrons in odd-mass francium radium and radon isotopes following the @b-decay of francium and astatine. \\...

Earlier visual N1 latencies in expert video-game players: a temporal basis of enhanced visuospatial performance?

Science.gov (United States)

Latham, Andrew J; Patston, Lucy L M; Westermann, Christine; Kirk, Ian J; Tippett, Lynette J

2013-01-01

Increasing behavioural evidence suggests that expert video game players (VGPs) show enhanced visual attention and visuospatial abilities, but what underlies these enhancements remains unclear. We administered the Poffenberger paradigm with concurrent electroencephalogram (EEG) recording to assess occipital N1 latencies and interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT) in expert VGPs. Participants comprised 15 right-handed male expert VGPs and 16 non-VGP controls matched for age, handedness, IQ and years of education. Expert VGPs began playing before age 10, had a minimum 8 years experience, and maintained playtime of at least 20 hours per week over the last 6 months. Non-VGPs had little-to-no game play experience (maximum 1.5 years). Participants responded to checkerboard stimuli presented to the left and right visual fields while 128-channel EEG was recorded. Expert VGPs responded significantly more quickly than non-VGPs. Expert VGPs also had significantly earlier occipital N1s in direct visual pathways (the hemisphere contralateral to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented). IHTT was calculated by comparing the latencies of occipital N1 components between hemispheres. No significant between-group differences in electrophysiological estimates of IHTT were found. Shorter N1 latencies may enable expert VGPs to discriminate attended visual stimuli significantly earlier than non-VGPs and contribute to faster responding in visual tasks. As successful video-game play requires precise, time pressured, bimanual motor movements in response to complex visual stimuli, which in this sample began during early childhood, these differences may reflect the experience and training involved during the development of video-game expertise, but training studies are needed to test this prediction.

Earlier visual N1 latencies in expert video-game players: a temporal basis of enhanced visuospatial performance?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Latham

Full Text Available Increasing behavioural evidence suggests that expert video game players (VGPs show enhanced visual attention and visuospatial abilities, but what underlies these enhancements remains unclear. We administered the Poffenberger paradigm with concurrent electroencephalogram (EEG recording to assess occipital N1 latencies and interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT in expert VGPs. Participants comprised 15 right-handed male expert VGPs and 16 non-VGP controls matched for age, handedness, IQ and years of education. Expert VGPs began playing before age 10, had a minimum 8 years experience, and maintained playtime of at least 20 hours per week over the last 6 months. Non-VGPs had little-to-no game play experience (maximum 1.5 years. Participants responded to checkerboard stimuli presented to the left and right visual fields while 128-channel EEG was recorded. Expert VGPs responded significantly more quickly than non-VGPs. Expert VGPs also had significantly earlier occipital N1s in direct visual pathways (the hemisphere contralateral to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented. IHTT was calculated by comparing the latencies of occipital N1 components between hemispheres. No significant between-group differences in electrophysiological estimates of IHTT were found. Shorter N1 latencies may enable expert VGPs to discriminate attended visual stimuli significantly earlier than non-VGPs and contribute to faster responding in visual tasks. As successful video-game play requires precise, time pressured, bimanual motor movements in response to complex visual stimuli, which in this sample began during early childhood, these differences may reflect the experience and training involved during the development of video-game expertise, but training studies are needed to test this prediction.

Stable Isotope Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tissue samples (skin, bone, blood, muscle) are analyzed for stable carbon, stable nitrogen, and stable sulfur analysis. Many samples are used in their entirety for...

stableGP

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The code in the stableGP package implements Gaussian process calculations using efficient and numerically stable algorithms. Description of the algorithms is in the...

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume III, evaluation of the prototype expert system TRANZ.

Science.gov (United States)

1990-01-01

The validation and evaluation of an expert system for traffic control in highway work zones (TRANZ) is described. The stages in the evaluation process consisted of the following: revisit the experts, selectively distribute copies of TRANZ with docume...

A brief history and technical review of the expert system research

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Haocheng

2017-09-01

The expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert, which aims to solve complex problems by reasoning knowledge. It is an important branch of artificial intelligence. In this paper, firstly, we briefly introduce the development and basic structure of the expert system. Then, from the perspective of the enabling technology, we classify the current expert systems and elaborate four expert systems: The Rule-Based Expert System, the Framework-Based Expert System, the Fuzzy Logic-Based Expert System and the Expert System Based on Neural Network.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

OpenAIRE

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

System and method for creating expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Peter M. (Inventor); Luczak, Edward C. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.

Expert systems for plant operations training and assistance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pack, R.W.; Lazar, P.M.; Schmidt, R.V.; Gaddy, C.D.

1988-01-01

The project described in this paper explored the use of expert systems for plant operations training and assistance. Three computer technologies were reviewed: computer-aided instruction, expert systems, and expert training systems (ETS). The technology of CAI has been developed since the early 1960s, and a wide range of applications are available commercially today. Expert systems have been developed primarily as job performance aids, and the number of commercial applications is increasing. A fully developed ETS has models of the trainer and trainee, in addition to a knowledge base

Handbook of VLSI chip design and expert systems

CERN Document Server

Schwarz, A F

1993-01-01

Handbook of VLSI Chip Design and Expert Systems provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of expert systems, which provides a knowledge-based approach to problem solving. This book discusses the use of expert systems in every possible subtask of VLSI chip design as well as in the interrelations between the subtasks.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of design automation, which can be identified as Computer-Aided Design of Circuits and Systems (CADCAS). This text then presents the progress in artificial intelligence, with emphasis on expert systems.

Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-02-01

One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinuca Elena Claudia

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

Industrial disasters - the expert systems solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sachs, P.

1986-01-01

Six mistakes by the operators led to the accident at the Cherobyl nuclear reactor. These have been studied. It is suggested that an expert systems approach could prevent similar accidents. The expert system is a new approach to software programming where programs are required to perform intelligent analyses of complex situations. It separates the knowledge of a problem from the procedural code that performs the decision. An expert system will evaluate data and indicate a priority on alarms in real time. Now software systems can detect the cause of a problem in a process plant and present their findings to the operators in the control room. This should enable operators to make the correct decisions as they will know which underlying process faults are causing the alarms to operate. The Chernobyl post-mortem meeting made 13 proposals for improving safety. Two in particular are noted as relevant to expert advice systems; international collaboration on man-reactor relationships and a conference to explore the balance of automation and human action to minimise operating errors. (U.K.)

Expert Systems: A Challenge for the Reading Profession.

Science.gov (United States)

Balajthy, Ernest

The expert systems are designed to imitate the reasoning of a human expert in a content area field. Designed to be advisors, these software systems combine the content area knowledge and decision-making ability of an expert with the user's understanding and knowledge of particular circumstances. The reading diagnosis system, the RD2P System…

New horizons in predictive toxicology: current status and application

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wilson, A. G. E

2012-01-01

"In this comprehensive discussion of predictive toxicology and its applications, leading experts express their views on the technologies currently available and the potential for future developments...

Innovation on Energy Power Technology (22)Challenge to Development of Expert System stored Knowledge of Expert Power Network Operators

Science.gov (United States)

Sakaguchi, Hideharu

Do you remember an expert system? I think there are various impressions about the system. For example, some might say “It reminds me of old days”. On the other hand, some might say “It was really troublesome”. About 25 years ago, from late 1980s to the middle of 1990s, when the Showa era was about to change into the Heisei Era, artificial intelligence boomed. Research and development for an expert system which was equipped with expertise and worked as smart as expert, was advanced in various fields. Our company also picked up the system as the new system which covered weak point of conventional computer technology. We started research and development in 1984, and installed an expert system in a SCADA system, which started operating in March 1990 in the Fukuoka Integrated Control Center. In this essay, as an electric power engineer who involved in development at that time, I introduce the situation and travail story about developing an expert system which support restorative actions from the outage and overload condition of power networks.

Expert Systems Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

1983-01-01

Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

A fuzzy expert system based on relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

1986-01-01

The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

The effect of fidelity: how expert behavior changes in a virtual reality environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ioannou, Ioanna; Avery, Alex; Zhou, Yun; Szudek, Jacek; Kennedy, Gregor; O'Leary, Stephen

2014-09-01

We compare the behavior of expert surgeons operating on the "gold standard" of simulation-the cadaveric temporal bone-against a high-fidelity virtual reality (VR) simulation. We aim to determine whether expert behavior changes within the virtual environment and to understand how the fidelity of simulation affects users' behavior. Five expert otologists performed cortical mastoidectomy and cochleostomy on a human cadaveric temporal bone and a VR temporal bone simulator. Hand movement and video recordings were used to derive a range of measures, to facilitate an analysis of surgical technique, and to compare expert behavior between the cadaveric and simulator environments. Drilling time was similar across the two environments. Some measures such as total time and burr change count differed predictably due to the ease of switching burrs within the simulator. Surgical strokes were generally longer in distance and duration in VR, but these measures changed proportionally to cadaveric measures across the stages of the procedure. Stroke shape metrics differed, which was attributed to the modeling of burr behavior within the simulator. This will be corrected in future versions. Slight differences in drill interaction between a virtual environment and the real world can have measurable effects on surgical technique, particularly in terms of stroke length, duration, and curvature. It is important to understand these effects when designing and implementing surgical training programs based on VR simulation--and when improving the fidelity of VR simulators to facilitate use of a similar technique in both real and simulated situations. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

Science.gov (United States)

Olmstadt, William J.

2000-01-01

Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

Stable Early Maternal Report of Behavioral Inhibition Predicts Lifetime Social Anxiety Disorder in Adolescence

Science.gov (United States)

Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Degnan, Kathryn Amey; Pine, Daniel S.; Perez-Edgar, Koraly; Henderson, Heather A.; Diaz, Yamalis; Raggi, Veronica L.; Fox, Nathan A.

2009-01-01

The odds of a lifetime diagnosis of social anxiety disorder increased by 3.79 times for children who had a stable report of behavioral inhibition from their mothers. This finding has important implications for the early identification and prevention of social anxiety disorder.

Changing predictions, stable recognition: Children’s representations of downward incline motion

OpenAIRE

Hast, Michael; Howe, Christine

2017-01-01

Various studies to-date have demonstrated children hold ill-conceived expressed beliefs about the physical world such as that one ball will fall faster than another because it is heavier. At the same time they also demonstrate accurate recognition of dynamic events. How these representations relate is still unresolved. This study examined 5- to 11-year-olds’ (N = 130) predictions and recognition of motion down inclines. Predictions were typically in error, matching previous work, but children...

Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

2012-01-01

Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hazard perception, risk perception, and the need for decontamination by residents exposed to soil pollution: the role of sustainability and the limits of expert knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Vandermoere, Frédéric

2008-04-01

This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological-symbolic approach (ESA), a multidisciplinary model is developed that draws upon psychological and sociological perspectives on risk perception and includes ecological variables by using data from experts' risk assessments. The results show that hazard perception is best predicted by objective knowledge, subjective knowledge, estimated knowledge of experts, and the assessed risks. However, experts' risk assessments induce an increase in hazard perception only when residents know the urgency of decontamination. Risk perception is best predicted by trust in the risk management. Additionally, need for decontamination relates to hazard perception, risk perception, estimated knowledge of experts, and thoughts about sustainability. In contrast to the knowledge deficit model, objective and subjective knowledge did not significantly relate to risk perception and need for decontamination. The results suggest that residents can make a distinction between hazards in terms of the seriousness of contamination on the one hand, and human health risks on the other hand. Moreover, next to the importance of social determinants of environmental risk perception, this study shows that the output of experts' risk assessments-or the objective risks-can create a hazard awareness rather than an alarming risk consciousness, despite residents' distrust of scientific knowledge.

Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

2015-01-01

In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sugeno-Fuzzy Expert System Modeling for Quality Prediction of Non-Contact Machining Process

Science.gov (United States)

Sivaraos; Khalim, A. Z.; Salleh, M. S.; Sivakumar, D.; Kadirgama, K.

2018-03-01

Modeling can be categorised into four main domains: prediction, optimisation, estimation and calibration. In this paper, the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy logic method is examined as a prediction modelling method to investigate the taper quality of laser lathing, which seeks to replace traditional lathe machines with 3D laser lathing in order to achieve the desired cylindrical shape of stock materials. Three design parameters were selected: feed rate, cutting speed and depth of cut. A total of twenty-four experiments were conducted with eight sequential runs and replicated three times. The results were found to be 99% of accuracy rate of the TSK fuzzy predictive model, which suggests that the model is a suitable and practical method for non-linear laser lathing process.

Expert system for accelerator single-freedom nonlinear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Sheng; Xie Xi; Liu Chunliang

1995-01-01

An expert system by Arity Prolog is developed for accelerator single-freedom nonlinear components. It automatically yields any order approximate analytical solutions for various accelerator single-freedom nonlinear components. As an example, the eighth order approximate analytical solution is derived by this expert system for a general accelerator single-freedom nonlinear component, showing that the design of the expert system is successful

Expert systems for assisting in design reviews

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brtis, J.S.; Johnson, W.J.; Weber, N.; Naser, J.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses Sargent and Lundy's (S and L's) use of expert system technologies to computerize the procedures used for engineering design reviews. This paper discusses expert systems and the advantages that result from using them to computerize the decision-making process. This paper also discusses the design review expert systems that S and L has developed to perform fire protection and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) design reviews, and is currently developing for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to perform 10 CFR 50.59 safety reviews

Expert systems and computer based industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunand, R.

1989-01-01

Framentec is the artificial intelligence subsidiary of FRAMATOME. It is involved in expert-system activities of Shells, developments, methodology and software for maintenance (Maintex) and consulting and methodology. Specific applications in the nuclear field are presented. The first is an expert system to assist in the piping support design prototype, the second is an expert system that assists an ultrasonic testing operator in determining the nature of a welding defect and the third is a welding machine diagnosis advisor. Maintex is a software tool to provide assistance in the repair of complex industrial equipment. (author)

An expert system for dispersion model interpretation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.

1988-10-01

A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs

Profiling B-type natriuretic peptide in a stable heart failure population: a valuable adjunct to care.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Jan, A

2012-02-01

AIM: To examine the prognostic importance of absolute values and change in values of BNP in patients with stable heart failure (HF). METHODS: Five-hundred and fifty-nine patients attending a disease management programme were categorized into tertiles of BNP (group 1; <\\/= 95 pg\\/ml, group 2; 96-249 pg\\/ml and group 3; >\\/= 250 pg\\/ml). A change in BNP between two stable visits was recorded. Patients were followed up for 1 year for death and a composite morbidity measure of HF hospitalization, all-cause hospitalization, unscheduled visits for clinical deterioration(UC) of HF using survival analysis. RESULTS: The risk of the combined morbidity outcome increased with increasing tertiles of BNP (Log rank = 17.8 (2), p < 0.001). Furthermore, a 50 and 25% increase in BNP predicted morbidity in stable HF patients with an initial BNP > 200 pg\\/ml (p = 0.02) and > 450 pg\\/ml (p = 0.03), respectively. CONCLUSION: In a stable community HF population, an elevated BNP or an increase in BNP predicts an adverse prognosis thereby potentially identifying a population in need of closer clinical follow-up.

MARBLE: A system for executing expert systems in parallel

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Leonard; Johnson, Coe; Johnson, Dean

1990-01-01

This paper details the MARBLE 2.0 system which provides a parallel environment for cooperating expert systems. The work has been done in conjunction with the development of an intelligent computer-aided design system, ICADS, by the CAD Research Unit of the Design Institute at California Polytechnic State University. MARBLE (Multiple Accessed Rete Blackboard Linked Experts) is a system of C Language Production Systems (CLIPS) expert system tool. A copied blackboard is used for communication between the shells to establish an architecture which supports cooperating expert systems that execute in parallel. The design of MARBLE is simple, but it provides support for a rich variety of configurations, while making it relatively easy to demonstrate the correctness of its parallel execution features. In its most elementary configuration, individual CLIPS expert systems execute on their own processors and communicate with each other through a modified blackboard. Control of the system as a whole, and specifically of writing to the blackboard is provided by one of the CLIPS expert systems, an expert control system.

Predictive coding of music--brain responses to rhythmic incongruity.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuust, Peter; Ostergaard, Leif; Pallesen, Karen Johanne; Bailey, Christopher; Roepstorff, Andreas

2009-01-01

During the last decades, models of music processing in the brain have mainly discussed the specificity of brain modules involved in processing different musical components. We argue that predictive coding offers an explanatory framework for functional integration in musical processing. Further, we provide empirical evidence for such a network in the analysis of event-related MEG-components to rhythmic incongruence in the context of strong metric anticipation. This is seen in a mismatch negativity (MMNm) and a subsequent P3am component, which have the properties of an error term and a subsequent evaluation in a predictive coding framework. There were both quantitative and qualitative differences in the evoked responses in expert jazz musicians compared with rhythmically unskilled non-musicians. We propose that these differences trace a functional adaptation and/or a genetic pre-disposition in experts which allows for a more precise rhythmic prediction.

Expert finding by the Dempster‐Shafer theory for evidence combination

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Torkzadeh mahani, N.; Dehghani, M.; Mirian, M.S.; Shakery, A.; Taheri, K.

The expertise of human experts can be formally extracted from their written documents, research projects, and everyday activities. The process whereby experts are recognized according to their activities is called expert finding. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify the experts in a

How stable are physical activity habits among adults? The Doetinchem cohort study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Picavet, H.S.; Wendel-Vos, G.C.W.; Vreeken, H.L.; Schuit, A.J.; Verschuren, W.M.

2011-01-01

Introduction: Leisure time physical activity in compliance with recommended levels is associated with improved health and lower mortality, but little is known on whether these physical activity habits are stable among adults and what characteristics predict physical activity changes. Our objective

Including model uncertainty in the model predictive control with output feedback

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigues M.A.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the development of an efficient numerical output feedback robust model predictive controller for open-loop stable systems. Stability of the closed loop is guaranteed by using an infinite horizon predictive controller and a stable state observer. The performance and the computational burden of this approach are compared to a robust predictive controller from the literature. The case used for this study is based on an industrial gasoline debutanizer column.

Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

2000-01-01

This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

Search for stable stau production at the LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaschube, Kolja

2011-10-01

In this thesis, a search for heavy stable charge particle production, in particular a quasistable supersymmetric tau lepton (''stau'') arising in gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking (GMSB) models, is presented. This stable stau would cross detectors without decaying, resembling a muon, and produce signatures of high momentum or high ionization energy loss. The energy loss measurement represents a direct handle on the particle mass via the Bethe-Bloch formula. Proton-proton collisions at 7 TeV center-of-mass energy produced by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the CMS detector are investigated. Low-momentum collision data tracks are used to predict the background of highly ionizing tracks at high momenta. A high signal-to-background ratio is achieved by separating the search into channels with differing muon or stau multiplicities and by using the transverse momentum and energy loss measurement as the discriminating variables. Using 35.8 pb -1 of data recorded in the 2010 LHC run, no excess is observed with respect to the expected Standard Model background. As a result, upper limits on the mass of stable status are derived within the context of the investigated GMSB models. (orig.)

Search for stable stau production at the LHC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaschube, Kolja

2011-10-15

In this thesis, a search for heavy stable charge particle production, in particular a quasistable supersymmetric tau lepton (''stau'') arising in gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking (GMSB) models, is presented. This stable stau would cross detectors without decaying, resembling a muon, and produce signatures of high momentum or high ionization energy loss. The energy loss measurement represents a direct handle on the particle mass via the Bethe-Bloch formula. Proton-proton collisions at 7 TeV center-of-mass energy produced by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the CMS detector are investigated. Low-momentum collision data tracks are used to predict the background of highly ionizing tracks at high momenta. A high signal-to-background ratio is achieved by separating the search into channels with differing muon or stau multiplicities and by using the transverse momentum and energy loss measurement as the discriminating variables. Using 35.8 pb{sup -1} of data recorded in the 2010 LHC run, no excess is observed with respect to the expected Standard Model background. As a result, upper limits on the mass of stable status are derived within the context of the investigated GMSB models. (orig.)

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2010-09-30

Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

García-Alonso Carlos

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

Increasing atmospheric CO2 overrides the historical legacy of multiple stable biome states in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Moncrieff, Glenn R; Scheiter, Simon; Bond, William J; Higgins, Steven I

2014-02-01

The dominant vegetation over much of the global land surface is not predetermined by contemporary climate, but also influenced by past environmental conditions. This confounds attempts to predict current and future biome distributions, because even a perfect model would project multiple possible biomes without knowledge of the historical vegetation state. Here we compare the distribution of tree- and grass-dominated biomes across Africa simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). We explicitly evaluate where and under what conditions multiple stable biome states are possible for current and projected future climates. Our simulation results show that multiple stable biomes states are possible for vast areas of tropical and subtropical Africa under current conditions. Widespread loss of the potential for multiple stable biomes states is projected in the 21st Century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 . Many sites where currently both tree-dominated and grass-dominated biomes are possible become deterministically tree-dominated. Regions with multiple stable biome states are widespread and require consideration when attempting to predict future vegetation changes. Testing for behaviour characteristic of systems with multiple stable equilibria, such as hysteresis and dependence on historical conditions, and the resulting uncertainty in simulated vegetation, will lead to improved projections of global change impacts. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Risks, doubt, scientific and technical expert appraisement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decrop, G.

1993-01-01

In complex systems which compose modern societies, expert report is going to take an increasing place. In its usual definition, expert is justified by a superior authority, his knowledge comes from experience, he is present as a third party where he has to work. It is often forgotten two other important points, connected with the situation: it is a tangling of technical or natural systems with a social system and above all there is a risk of uncertainty. Then, the job of expert is different from scientific work done in laboratories and different from operational work done by engineers

Computers start to think with expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-03-21

A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

Expert System for Diagnostics and Status Monitoring of NPP Water Chemistry Condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shvedova, M.N.; Kritski, V.G.; Zakharova, S.V.; Nikolaev, F.V.; Benediktov, V.B.

2002-01-01

range of numerical estimates, which were calculated by the use of expert data, and to make a credible prediction of an existing situation development. The integrated use of analytical methods and artificial intelligence methods is one of the system's advantages. This combination allows the successful implementation of one of the main purposes of the system: the early detection of deviations from specified process conditions and the taking into account of even minor changes in parameters to provide an advanced WCC control and to prevent non-regular situations. (authors)

CHOOZ-A expert assessment program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouat, M.; Godin, R.

1993-01-01

CHOOZ-A Nuclear Power Plant, the first French-Belgian PWR unit (300 MWe) was definitively shut down at the end of October 1991, after 24 years in operation. Since summer 1991, the steering committee of the French (EDF) Lifetime Project has initiated a large inquiry to the different technical specialists of EDF and external organizations, trying to define a wide expert assessment program on this plant. The aim is to improve the knowledge of aging mechanisms such as those observed on the 52 PWR French nuclear power plants (900 and 1,300 MWe), and contribute to the validation of non-destructive in-service testing methods. This paper presents the retained CHOOZ-A expert assessment program and technical lines followed during its set up. First major project stages are described, then technical choices are explained, and at last the final program is presented with the specific content of each expert assessment. The definitive program is scheduled for a three year period starting at the moment of final shutdown license acquisition, with a provisional total budget of more than US $10 million

Adaptive neural network/expert system that learns fault diagnosis for different structures

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Solomon H.

1992-08-01

Corporations need better real-time monitoring and control systems to improve productivity by watching quality and increasing production flexibility. The innovative technology to achieve this goal is evolving in the form artificial intelligence and neural networks applied to sensor processing, fusion, and interpretation. By using these advanced Al techniques, we can leverage existing systems and add value to conventional techniques. Neural networks and knowledge-based expert systems can be combined into intelligent sensor systems which provide real-time monitoring, control, evaluation, and fault diagnosis for production systems. Neural network-based intelligent sensor systems are more reliable because they can provide continuous, non-destructive monitoring and inspection. Use of neural networks can result in sensor fusion and the ability to model highly, non-linear systems. Improved models can provide a foundation for more accurate performance parameters and predictions. We discuss a research software/hardware prototype which integrates neural networks, expert systems, and sensor technologies and which can adapt across a variety of structures to perform fault diagnosis. The flexibility and adaptability of the prototype in learning two structures is presented. Potential applications are discussed.

A theory of expert leadership (TEL) in psychiatry.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodall, Amanda H

2016-06-01

Leaders' technical competence - 'expert knowledge' - has been shown in many settings to be associated with better organizational performance. In universities, for example, there is longitudinal evidence that research-focused scholars make the best leaders; results from a hospital study show that doctors instead of professional managers are most closely associated with the best performing institutions. To explain these patterns, and raise hypotheses, a theory of expert leadership (TEL) has been developed that might explain these patterns. In this paper the framework for expert leadership is applied to psychiatry. The TEL proposes that psychiatric leaders, as opposed to non-expert managers, improve organizational performance through several channels. First, experts' knowledge influences organizational strategy. Second, having been 'one of them', a psychiatrist understands how to create the optimal work environment for psychiatric teams, through appropriate goal-setting, evaluation and support. These factors are positively associated with workers' wellbeing and performance. Third, exceptional psychiatrist-leaders are likely to set high standards for hiring. Fourth, leaders' credibility extends their influence among core workers, and also signals organizational priorities to stakeholders. Finally, a necessary prerequisite of TEL is that expert leaders have direct executive power inclusive of budgetary and strategic oversight. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Model of critical diagnostic reasoning: achieving expert clinician performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Harjai, Prashant Kumar; Tiwari, Ruby

2009-01-01

Diagnostic reasoning refers to the analytical processes used to determine patient health problems. While the education curriculum and health care system focus on training nurse clinicians to accurately recognize and rescue clinical situations, assessments of non-expert nurses have yielded less than satisfactory data on diagnostic competency. The contrast between the expert and non-expert nurse clinician raises the important question of how differences in thinking may contribute to a large divergence in accurate diagnostic reasoning. This article recognizes superior organization of one's knowledge base, using prototypes, and quick retrieval of pertinent information, using similarity recognition as two reasons for the expert's superior diagnostic performance. A model of critical diagnostic reasoning, using prototypes and similarity recognition, is proposed and elucidated using case studies. This model serves as a starting point toward bridging the gap between clinical data and accurate problem identification, verification, and management while providing a structure for a knowledge exchange between expert and non-expert clinicians.

Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elstner, E.F.

1996-01-01

The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagemans, J.H.M.

2011-01-01

In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

Jess, the Java expert system shell

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Friedman-Hill, E.J.

1997-11-01

This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

A new Expert Finding model based on Term Correlation Matrix

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ehsan Pornour

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.

Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1987-04-01

Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

2008-01-01

The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

Expert system to control a fusion energy experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, R.R.; Canales, T.; Lager, D.

1986-01-01

This paper describes a system that automates neutral beam source conditioning. The system achieves this with artificial intelligence techniques by encoding the behavior of several experts as a set of if-then rules in an expert system. One of the functions of the expert system is to control an adaptive controller that, in turn, controls the neutral beam source. The architecture of the system is presented followed by a description of its performance.

Expert system to control a fusion energy experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, R.R.; Canales, T.; Lager, D.

1986-01-01

This paper describes a system that automates neutral beam source conditioning. The system achieves this with artificial intelligence techniques by encoding the behavior of several experts as a set of if-then rules in an expert system. One of the functions of the expert system is to control an adaptive controller that, in turn, controls the neutral beam source. The architecture of the system is presented followed by a description of its performance

Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: guptanidhi12@gmail.com; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); George, Saji, E-mail: saji_george@nyp.gov.sg [Nanyang Polytechnic, Centre for Sustainable Nanotechnology, School of Chemical and Life Sciences (Singapore); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

2013-08-15

The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

2013-01-01

The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors

The microcomputer-based expert system in CAD-PV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.; Qin, S.

1987-01-01

As a branch of artificial intelligence, expert system has been revealed day after day in more and more engineering scopes since the successful applications of MYCIN in diagnosis and DENDRAL in the molecular structure of organic compounds etc.. But in the design scope of pressure vessel, as we know, only a few papers have so far been published with respect to the expert system. The necessity and feasibility of accompanying CAD-PV with expert system attracted more scholars to engage in. Although many countries, including China, have regularized the design standards or codes for pressure vessel, but of which no one can solve all of the problems concerning the various practical occasions and experiences. In general, the more domain knowledges a design engineer possesses of, the better decision will be made by him. By virtue of the expert system any less experienced engineer could make the optimum decision in design as well as a skilled senior engineer in addition to the application of design code. It is the due significance for developing high level expert system as an intelligence assistant in the plan option of CAD-PV. In this paper we attempt to introduce a specified software JACKPV used in the design procedure of jacketed pressure vessel as an intelligence front in CAD-PV. JACKPV consists of the function of expert system based on the personal computer IBM-PC/XT with the language PASCAL in its program. It was proved that an ordinary CAD software could be effectively improved while equipped with expert system. (orig.)

Expert systems for real-time monitoring and fault diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, S. J.; Caglayan, A. K.

1989-01-01

Methods for building real-time onboard expert systems were investigated, and the use of expert systems technology was demonstrated in improving the performance of current real-time onboard monitoring and fault diagnosis applications. The potential applications of the proposed research include an expert system environment allowing the integration of expert systems into conventional time-critical application solutions, a grammar for describing the discrete event behavior of monitoring and fault diagnosis systems, and their applications to new real-time hardware fault diagnosis and monitoring systems for aircraft.

An examination of expert systems activities within the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.A.; Washio, Takashi.

1988-01-01

This paper provides an overview of a detailed evaluation that the authors recently completed on expert systems applications within the nuclear industry. That evaluation examined the motivation for utilizing expert systems, identified the areas to which they were being applied, and provided an assessment of their utility. Listed here are some of the salient findings of that report. (1) Utilities are developing their own artificial intelligence tools rather than using commercial products. (2) Few expert systems are being developed for the express purpose of capturing human expertise. (3) A number of successful expert systems have been developed to assist in plant design, management, and maintenance scheduling. (4) Interactive diagnostic systems are being developed for the analysis of physical processes that vary slowly. (5) Real-time diagnostic expert systems are currently at the cutting edge of the technology. (6) Operator adviser and emergency response expert systems constitute ∼25% of the total. (7) Research on the use of expert systems for reactor control is quite active. (8) Too few quantitative evaluations of the benefits of expert systems to reactor operators have been performed. The operator's need is for timely, factual information on plant status. Hence, the true challenge to expert systems is real-time diagnostics

USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

2016-01-01

External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

Predictive factors for functional outcome and failure in angular stable osteosynthesis of the proximal humerus.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Hardeman, Francois

2012-02-01

Angular stable osteosynthesis has become the gold standard in the operative treatment of proximal humeral fractures. The aim of this article is to determine the indications for osteosynthesis versus primary arthroplasty based on clinical and radiological parameters.

Concept of expert system for modal split in transportation planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Popović Maja M.

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a concept of expert system based on the survey of experts' opinions and their experience concerning relations in modal split, on the basis of parameters of transport system demand and transport supply, defined through PT travel time and city size, i.e. mean trip length. This expert system could be of use both to experts and less experienced planners who could apply the knowledge contained in this expert system for further improvement, on operational as well as on strategic level.

An hierarchical approach to performance evaluation of expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

Dominick, Wayne D. (Editor); Kavi, Srinu

1985-01-01

The number and size of expert systems is growing rapidly. Formal evaluation of these systems - which is not performed for many systems - increases the acceptability by the user community and hence their success. Hierarchical evaluation that had been conducted for computer systems is applied for expert system performance evaluation. Expert systems are also evaluated by treating them as software systems (or programs). This paper reports many of the basic concepts and ideas in the Performance Evaluation of Expert Systems Study being conducted at the University of Southwestern Louisiana.

Expert system aided operator's mental activities training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.; Gese, A.

1994-01-01

The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author). 6 refs, 6 figs

EXPERT SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE TOOL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NAN Anca-Petruţa

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an

Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasselbring, Ted S.

1986-01-01

The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

Expert group formation using facility location analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neshati, M.; Beigy, H.; Hiemstra, Djoerd

In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

Expert group formation using facility location analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neshati, Mahmood; Beigy, Hamid; Hiemstra, Djoerd

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

Criteria for the CAREM reactor's expert system design conduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Furman, A.; Delgado, R.

1990-01-01

The present work describes the analysis made to start with the development of an Expert System for the CAREM (SE) reactor's conduction. The following tasks are presented: a) purpose of the Expert System; b) Decision Making structure; c) Architecture of the Expert System; d) Description of Subsystems and e) Licensing. (Author) [es

Contemporary Expert Debates on the SCO-Related Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor Evgen'evich Denisov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since its establishment the SCO has always attracted a lot of expert attention. The SCO Forum was founded in 2006 to bring together for annual debates experts from all member-states. Within this format in-depth discussions took place in April 2016 in Dushanbe, which hosted this year conference of the SCO Forum. Participating experts and officials reviewed problems of security, economic cooperation (including transport and water-energy issues and SCO enlargement, the latter being one of the most debatable. Experts presented some new thesis on all these problems, in particular on the enlargement issue. These new thesis are summed up in this article. Besides, the SCO Forum this year had many statements on the organization approaching a sort of new phase in its development. This line of discussions may lead in the future to even more active debates on SCO's role in the world. This article puts emphasis on the new elements of these debates and reviews major experts' attitudes within this line of discussion on the SCO being in front of a new stage of development.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) and expert testimony.

Science.gov (United States)

Kulich, Ronald; Maciewicz, Raymond; Scrivani, Steven J

2009-03-01

Medical experts frequently use imaging studies to illustrate points in their court testimony. This article reviews how these studies impact the credibility of expert testimony with judges and juries. The apparent "objective" evidence provided by such imaging studies can lend strong credence to a judge's or jury's appraisal of medical expert's testimony. However, as the court usually has no specialized scientific expertise, the use of complex images as part of courtroom testimony also has the potential to mislead or at least inappropriately bias the weight given to expert evidence. Recent advances in brain imaging may profoundly impact forensic expert testimony. Functional magnetic resonance imaging and other physiologic imaging techniques currently allow visualization of the activation pattern of brain regions associated with a wide variety of cognitive and behavioral tasks, and more recently, pain. While functional imaging technology has a valuable role in brain research and clinical investigation, it is important to emphasize that the use of imaging studies in forensic matters requires a careful scientific foundation and a rigorous legal assessment.

Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of linear and nonlinear indices of heart rate variability in stable angina patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pivatelli Flávio

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decreased heart rate variability (HRV is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences] and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF 0,003 – 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF (0.04–0.15 Hz, and high frequency (HF (0.15–0.40 Hz as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF. In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (−ApEn, α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC. The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms2, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤−0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment.

Current Challenges in Understanding and Forecasting Stable Boundary Layers over Land and Ice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gert-Jan eSteeneveld

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding and prediction of the stable atmospheric boundary layer is challenging. Many physical processes come into play in the stable boundary layer, i.e. turbulence, radiation, land surface coupling and heterogeneity, orographic turbulent and gravity wave drag. The development of robust stable boundary-layer parameterizations for weather and climate models is difficult because of the multiplicity of processes and their complex interactions. As a result, these models suffer from biases in key variables, such as the 2-m temperature, boundary-layer depth and wind speed. This short paper briefly summarizes the state-of-the-art of stable boundary layer research, and highlights physical processes that received only limited attention so far, in particular orographically-induced gravity wave drag, longwave radiation divergence, and the land-atmosphere coupling over a snow-covered surface. Finally, a conceptual framework with relevant processes and particularly their interactions is proposed.

Group prioritisation with unknown expert weights in incomplete linguistic context

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Dong; Cheng, Faxin; Zhou, Zhili; Wang, Juan

2017-09-01

In this paper, we study a group prioritisation problem in situations when the expert weights are completely unknown and their judgement preferences are linguistic and incomplete. Starting from the theory of relative entropy (RE) and multiplicative consistency, an optimisation model is provided for deriving an individual priority vector without estimating the missing value(s) of an incomplete linguistic preference relation. In order to address the unknown expert weights in the group aggregating process, we define two new kinds of expert weight indicators based on RE: proximity entropy weight and similarity entropy weight. Furthermore, a dynamic-adjusting algorithm (DAA) is proposed to obtain an objective expert weight vector and capture the dynamic properties involved in it. Unlike the extant literature of group prioritisation, the proposed RE approach does not require pre-allocation of expert weights and can solve incomplete preference relations. An interesting finding is that once all the experts express their preference relations, the final expert weight vector derived from the DAA is fixed irrespective of the initial settings of expert weights. Finally, an application example is conducted to validate the effectiveness and robustness of the RE approach.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, James P L

2016-08-22

A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems.

Expert Review of Pedagogical Activities at Therapeutic Recreation Camps

Science.gov (United States)

Kiselev, N. N.; Kiseleva, E. V.

2015-01-01

An analysis of pedagogical expert reviews at children's therapeutic recreation camps in Novosibirsk Region shows that it is necessary to implement an expert review system that plays a supporting and developmental role. Such a system should allow teams of teachers to submit their work to expert review and to move forward by reflecting on their…

Cooperating expert systems for space station power distribution management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, T.A.; Chiou, W.C.

1986-01-01

In a complex system such as the manned Space Station, it is deemed necessary that many expert systems must perform tasks in a concurrent and cooperative manner. An important question to arise is: what cooperative-task-performing models are appropriate for multiple expert systems to jointly perform tasks. The solution to this question will provide a crucial automation design criteria for the Space Station complex systems architecture. Based on a client/server model for performing tasks, the authors have developed a system that acts as a front-end to support loosely-coupled communications between expert systems running on multiple Symbolics machines. As an example, they use the two ART*-based expert systems to demonstrate the concept of parallel symbolic manipulation for power distribution management and dynamic load planner/scheduler in the simulated Space Station environment. This on-going work will also explore other cooperative-task-performing models as alternatives which can evaluate inter and intra expert system communication mechanisms. It will serve as a testbed and a bench-marking tool for other Space Station expert subsystem communication and information exchange

Cooperating Expert Systems For Space Station Power Distribution Management

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, T. A.; Chiou, W. C.

1987-02-01

In a complex system such as the manned Space Station, it is deem necessary that many expert systems must perform tasks in a concurrent and cooperative manner. An important question arise is: what cooperative-task-performing models are appropriate for multiple expert systems to jointly perform tasks. The solution to this question will provide a crucial automation design criteria for the Space Station complex systems architecture. Based on a client/server model for performing tasks, we have developed a system that acts as a front-end to support loosely-coupled communications between expert systems running on multiple Symbolics machines. As an example, we use two ART*-based expert systems to demonstrate the concept of parallel symbolic manipulation for power distribution management and dynamic load planner/scheduler in the simulated Space Station environment. This on-going work will also explore other cooperative-task-performing models as alternatives which can evaluate inter and intra expert system communication mechanisms. It will be served as a testbed and a bench-marking tool for other Space Station expert subsystem communication and information exchange.

Are online communities on par with experts in the evaluation of new movies?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ponnamma Divakaran, Pradeep Kumar; Nørskov, Sladjana

2016-01-01

Purpose This paper investigates two questions. First, are movie-based online community evaluations on par with film expert evaluations of new movies? Second, which group makes more reliable and accurate predictions of movie box office revenues: film reviewers or an online community? Design....../methodology/approach Data were collected from a movie-based online community Fandango for a 16-month period and included all movies released during this time (373 movies). We compared film reviewers’ evaluations with the online community evaluations during the first eight weeks of the movie’s release. Findings The study...... finds that community members evaluate movies differently than film reviewers. The results also reveal that community evaluations have more predictive power than film reviewers’ evaluations, especially during the opening week of a movie. Research limitations/implications The investigated online community...

Stable Isotope Technique to Assess Intake of Human Milk in Breastfed Infants; Técnica de isótopos estables para determinar la ingesta de leche materna en lactantes amamantados

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2014-08-15

This publication was developed by an international group of experts as an integral part of the IAEA’s efforts to contribute to the transfer of technology and knowledge in nutrition. Its aim is to assist Member States in their efforts to combat malnutrition by facilitating the use of relevant nuclear techniques. The stable (non-radioactive) isotope technique has been developed to assess intake of human milk in breastfed infants. The practical application of the stable isotope technique, based on analysis of deuterium by Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR), is presented in this book.

Expert systems to assist plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, Yoshihiro; Mori, Nobuyuki; Wada, Norio

1985-01-01

Large-scale real-time process control systems, such as those for electric power dispatching, large thermal and nuclear power stations, steel mill plants and manufacturing automation systems, need expert systems to assist operator's decision. The expert systems newly developed to fulfill the requirement are founded on OKBS (object oriented knowledge based system). OKBS provides various object types: fuzzy logic type, production rule type, frame type, state transition type, abstract data type and input/output transformation type. (author)

Recruiting experts for technical assistance rogramme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1974-01-01

One of the objectives of the IAEA is the provision of technical assistance to its Member States to carry out their peaceful nuclear activities more efficiently and safely. This involves looking for and supplying experts, equipment and fellowships. Since 1958 the Agency has provided the services of more than 1800 experts valued at $11.5 million, 4300 fellowships valued at $14.3 million, and equipment worth $10.8 million. The efficiency of the programme can only be increased by a more prompt consideration of proposals forwarded by the Agency, and the continuing co-operation from national Governments and private institutions. The IAEA recruits an average of 200 experts a year to implement its Regular Technical Assistance Programme. These projects are financed by voluntary contributions from Member States, and by the United Nations Development Programme for those projects for which the IAEA is the executing agency

An Expert System for Designing Fire Prescriptions

Science.gov (United States)

Elizabeth Reinhardt

1987-01-01

Managers use prescribed fire to accomplish a variety of resource objectives. The knowledge needed to design successful prescriptions is both quantitative and qualitative. Some of it is available through publications and computer programs, but much of the knowledge of expert practitioners has never been collected or published. An expert system being developed at the,...

The vulcain N expert fire system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roche, A.

1989-03-01

The Institute for Nuclear Safety and Protection (IPSN) has begun work on an expert system to aid in the diagnosis of fire hazards in nuclear installations. This system is called Vulcain N and is designed as a support tool for the analyses carried out by the IPSN. Vulcain N, is based on the Vulcain expert system already developed by Bertin for its own needs and incorporates the specific rules and know-how of the IPSN experts. The development of Vulcain N began in October 1986 with the drawing up of the technical specifications, and should be completed by the end of 1988. Vulcain N brings together knowledge from a number of different domains: the locations of the combustible materials, the thermal characteristics of the combustible materials and of the walls of the room, the ventilation conditions and, finally, knowledge of fire experts concerning the development of fire. The latter covers four levels of expert knowledge: standards and their associated calculations, the simplified physics of the fire enabling more precise values to be obtained for the figures given by the standards, the rules and knowledge which enables a certain number of deductions to be made concerning the development of the fire, and a numerical simulation code which can be used to monitor the variation of certain characteristic parameters with time. For a given fire out-break scenario, Vulcain N performs diagnosis of different aspects: development of fire, effect of ventilation, emergency action possibilities, propagation hazards, etc. Owing to its flexibility, it can be used in the analysis of fire hazards to simulate a number of possible scenarios and to very rapidly deduce the essential, predominant factors. It will also be used to assist in drafting emergency procedures for application in facilities with nuclear hazards

Expert knowledge as defined by the X-Ray Ordinance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

The radiation protection officer or any person responsible for radiation safety have to give proof of their expert knowledge in accordance with sections 3, 4 of the X-Ray Ordinance. Proof of expert knowledge has to be furnished within the procedure of appointment (sec. 13, sub-sec. (3) X-Ray Ordinance). The directive defines the scope of the expert knowledge required, and the scope of expert knowledge persons must have, or acquire, who are responsible for radiation protection within the preview of sec. 23, no. 2, 4 and sec. 29, sub-sec. 1, no. 3 of the X-Ray Ordinance. (orig./HP) [de

Expert Panel Elicitation of Seismicity Following Glaciation in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hora, Stephen; Jensen, Mikael

2005-12-01

The Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company have jointly carried out a project on expert panel elicitation on the issue of glacial induced Swedish earthquakes. Following a broad nomination procedure, 5 experts were chosen by a selection committee of 4 professors within Earth sciences disciplines. The 5 experts presented judgments about the frequency of earthquakes greater the magnitude 6 within 10 km for two Swedish sites, Oskarshamn and Forsmark, in connection with a glaciation cycle. The experts' median value vas 0,1 earthquakes for one glaciation cycle

Expert Panel Elicitation of Seismicity Following Glaciation in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hora, Stephen; Jensen, Mikael (eds.)

2005-12-15

The Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company have jointly carried out a project on expert panel elicitation on the issue of glacial induced Swedish earthquakes. Following a broad nomination procedure, 5 experts were chosen by a selection committee of 4 professors within Earth sciences disciplines. The 5 experts presented judgments about the frequency of earthquakes greater the magnitude 6 within 10 km for two Swedish sites, Oskarshamn and Forsmark, in connection with a glaciation cycle. The experts' median value vas 0,1 earthquakes for one glaciation cycle.

Propulsive efficiency and non- expert swimmers performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiago Barbosa

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Propulsive efficiency is one of the most interesting issues for competitive swimming researchers, has it presents significant relationships with the swimmer’s biophysical behavior and his/her performance. Although propulsive efficiency is a variable that has been quite studied in elite swimmers, there is no research on this issue in young and non-expert swimmers. Thus, the aim of this study was to: (i estimate the propulsive efficiency on non-expert swimmers; (ii identify biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters that are associated with propulsive efficiency; (iii identify the association between the propulsive efficiency and swim performance. Twenty-eight non-expert swimmers participated on this study. It was assessed the propulsive efficiency, biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters, as well as, the swim performance. The propulsive efficiency of non-expert swimmers is lower than data reported in the literature to higher competitive levels swimmers and there are no significant differences between boys and girls. It was also noted that several biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters, as well as, the swim performance are associated with the propulsive efficiency.

Applied predictive analytics principles and techniques for the professional data analyst

CERN Document Server

Abbott, Dean

2014-01-01

Learn the art and science of predictive analytics - techniques that get results Predictive analytics is what translates big data into meaningful, usable business information. Written by a leading expert in the field, this guide examines the science of the underlying algorithms as well as the principles and best practices that govern the art of predictive analytics. It clearly explains the theory behind predictive analytics, teaches the methods, principles, and techniques for conducting predictive analytics projects, and offers tips and tricks that are essential for successful predictive mode

The Study of Expert System Utilization for the Accelerator Operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budi-Santosa; Slamet-Santosa; Subari-Santosa

2000-01-01

The utilization of expert system in the accelerator laboratory has been studied. The study covers the utilization of expert system in the setting up experiment (tuning parameter), controlling system, safety or warning system. The results study shows, that using the expert system in the accelerator would be easy to operate the accelerator for user and operator. Increasing the skill of expert system could be updated without logical mechanism modification. (author)

Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minoo Aminian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes, since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web.

Requirements to obtain the recognition of radiological protection experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arguelles, R.; Villarroel, R.; Senderos, V.; Campos, R.; Pinos, M.; Ponjuan, G.; Franco, P.; Rueda, D.

2003-01-01

The scope of this paper is to summarize the general requirements related to education, training and skill of the individual to obtain the recognition of radiological protection experts on ionizing radiation (experts on radiological protection- RP). There has been established two levels according to the grade of responsibility: Qualified expert provided with a diploma given by de Nuclear Safety Council. Technician expert on radiological protection whose certification is made by the Qualified expert that supervise their work. To obtain the diploma of qualified expert is required an official degree, a title of Architecture, Engineering or equivalent in case of no national degrees; specific training on radiological protection (300 hours) and the knowledge on safety and radiological protection of the facilities to be supervised. Three years of experience on radiological protection must be proved. To get the recognition of technician expert on radiological protection is required Formacion Profesional de Grado Superior or equivalent and specific training on safety and radiological protection. Knowledge on basis and principles of radiological protection are required. According to the type of the facilities to be supervised there are two models: A model: to deal with facilities included in RD 1836/1999 (nuclear and radioactive facilities). B model: to deal with medical X rays facilities approved under RD 1891/1991 three months of experience on the selected model must be proved. (Author)

USING OF SOFTWARE FOR ESTIMATION OF EXPERT COMPETENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg N. Velichko

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The features of estimation of expert’s competence in the field of higher education are considered, got with a help, both universal statistical software and special software. The comparative analysis of quantitative estimation of expert’s competence is conducted, that showed possibility of forming of the most competent group of experts for realization of necessary group expert estimation in the field of higher education. An analysis showed the high degree of coincidence of results that allow declining less competent experts. 

Use of expert systems in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.

1989-01-01

The application of technologies, particularly expert systems, to the control room activities in a nuclear power plant has the potential to reduce operator error and increase plant safety, reliability, and efficiency. Furthermore, there are a large number of nonoperating activities (testing, routine maintenance, outage planning, equipment diagnostics, and fuel management) in which expert systems can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of overall plant and corporate operations. This document presents a number of potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear power field. 36 refs., 2 tabs

Developing a comprehensive training curriculum for integrated predictive maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Wurzbach, Richard N.

2002-03-01

On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

Developing Predictive Maintenance Expertise to Improve Plant Equipment Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurzbach, Richard N.

2002-01-01

On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

Expert system for transuranic waste assay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zoolalian, M.L.; Gibbs, A.; Kuhns, J.D.

1989-01-01

Transuranic wastes are generated at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a result of routine production of nuclear materials. These wastes contain Pu-238 and Pu-239 and are placed into lined 55-gallon waste drums. The drums are placed on monitored storage pads pending shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. A passive-active neutron (PAN) assay system is used to determine the mass of the radioactive material within the waste drums. Assay results are used to classify the wastes as either low-level or transuranic (TRU). During assays, the PAN assay system communicates with an IBM-AT computer. A Fortran computer program, called NEUT, controls and performs all data analyses. Unassisted, the NEUT program cannot adequately interpret assay results. To eliminate this limitation, an expert system shell was used to write a new algorithm, called the Transuranic Expert System (TRUX), to drive the NEUT program and add decision making capabilities for analysis of the assay results. The TRUX knowledge base was formulated by consulting with human experts in the field of neutron assay, by direct experimentation on the PAN assay system, and by observing operations on a daily basis. TRUX, with its improved ability to interpret assay results, has eliminated the need for close supervision by a human expert, allowing skilled technicians to operate the PAN assay system. 4 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

Expert system for transuranic waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zoolalian, M.L.; Gibbs, A.; Kuhns, J.D.

1989-01-01

Transuranic wastes are generated at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a result of routine production of nuclear materials. These wastes contain Pu-238 and Pu-239 and are placed into lined 55-gallon waste drums. The drums are placed on monitored storage pads pending shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. A passive-active neutron (PAN) assay system is used to determine the mass of the radioactive material within the waste drums. Assay results are used to classify the wastes as either low-level or transuranic (TRU). During assays, the PAN assay system communicates with an IBM-AT computer. A Fortran computer program, called NEUT, controls and performs all data analyses. Unassisted, the NEUT program cannot adequately interpret assay results. To eliminate this limitation, an expert system shell was used to write a new algorithm, called the Transuranic Expert System (TRUX), to drive the NEUT program and add decision making capabilities for analysis of the assay results. The TRUX knowledge base was formulated by consulting with human experts in the field of neutron assay, by direct experimentation on the PAN assay system, and by observing operations on a daily basis. TRUX, with its improved ability to interpret assay results, has eliminated the need for close supervision by a human expert, allowing skilled technicians to operate the PAN assay system. 4 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

Diagnosis - Using automatic test equipment and artificial intelligence expert systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsey, J. E., Jr.

Three expert systems (ATEOPS, ATEFEXPERS, and ATEFATLAS), which were created to direct automatic test equipment (ATE), are reviewed. The purpose of the project was to develop an expert system to troubleshoot the converter-programmer power supply card for the F-15 aircraft and have that expert system direct the automatic test equipment. Each expert system uses a different knowledge base or inference engine, basing the testing on the circuit schematic, test requirements document, or ATLAS code. Implementing generalized modules allows the expert systems to be used for any different unit under test. Using converted ATLAS to LISP code allows the expert system to direct any ATE using ATLAS. The constraint propagated frame system allows for the expansion of control by creating the ATLAS code, checking the code for good software engineering techniques, directing the ATE, and changing the test sequence as needed (planning).

Expert systems - basic principles and possible applications in nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cain, D.G.; Schmidt, F.

1987-01-01

One of the primary goals of the application of mathematical methods and computational techniques in reactor physics is the effective and accurate solution of the neutron diffusion equation under various conditions. To reach this goal still requires much skill, experience, knowledge and imagination as can be seen from various contributions at this and other conferences. Experts are necessary. Will expert systems replace them. We shall discuss this question by describing the basic principles of problem solving by expert systems as compared to problem solving by mathematical and computational methods. From this we shall identify areas of possible applications of the new techniques in nuclear energy and develop some thoughts on present limitations. As a result we conclude that expert systems will not be able to replace experts as long as the experts use the systems to improve their own expertise

THE ARCHITECTURE OF MULTI-COMPONENT DISTRIBUTED HYBRID EXPERT TRAINING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Оleh Shevchuk

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper reports on the design of a multi-component architecture of distributed hybrid expert training system that can be used for the study of knowledge base of both internal and external expert systems and artificial intelligence systems that are distributed on Internet servers and other computer networks. Expert training system is based on three groups of basic principles: cybernetic, reflecting experience of previous research of systems of artificial intelligence, expert training systems; pedagogical, determining the principles, on which pedagogical design and use of expert training systems are based; psychological, determining preconditious and understanding of pupils psychics, on which the processes of design and use of expert training systems in professional training of future specialists are based.It accounts for the efficient training through the distributed knowledge via the Internet, which greatly increases the didactic capabilities of the system.

Leg-adjustment strategies for stable running in three dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peuker, Frank; Maufroy, Christophe; Seyfarth, André

2012-01-01

The dynamics of the center of mass (CoM) in the sagittal plane in humans and animals during running is well described by the spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP). With appropriate parameters, SLIP running patterns are stable, and these models can recover from perturbations without the need for corrective strategies, such as the application of additional forces. Rather, it is sufficient to adjust the leg to a fixed angle relative to the ground. In this work, we consider the extension of the SLIP to three dimensions (3D SLIP) and investigate feed-forward strategies for leg adjustment during the flight phase. As in the SLIP model, the leg is placed at a fixed angle. We extend the scope of possible reference axes from only fixed horizontal and vertical axes to include the CoM velocity vector as a movement-related reference, resulting in six leg-adjustment strategies. Only leg-adjustment strategies that include the CoM velocity vector produced stable running and large parameter domains of stability. The ability of the model to recover from perturbations along the direction of motion (directional stability) depended on the strategy for lateral leg adjustment. Specifically, asymptotic and neutral directional stability was observed for strategies based on the global reference axis and the velocity vector, respectively. Additional features of velocity-based leg adjustment are running at arbitrary low speed (kinetic energy) and the emergence of large domains of stable 3D running that are smoothly transferred to 2D SLIP stability and even to 1D SLIP hopping. One of the additional leg-adjustment strategies represented a large convex region of parameters where stable and robust hopping and running patterns exist. Therefore, this strategy is a promising candidate for implementation into engineering applications, such as robots, for instance. In a preliminary comparison, the model predictions were in good agreement with the experimental data, suggesting that the 3D SLIP is an

A study on expert system applications for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huh, Young Hwan; Kim, Yeong Jin; Park, Nam Seog; Dong, In Sook; Choi, In Seon

1987-12-01

The application of artificial intelligence techniques to nuclear power plants such as expert systems is rapidly emerging. expert systems can contribute significantly to the availability and the improved operation and safety of nuclear power plants. The objective of the project is to develop an expert system in a selected application area in the nuclear power plants. This project will last for 3 years. The first year's tasks are: - Information collection and literature survey on expert systems. - Analysis of several applicable areas for applying AI technologies to the nuclear power plants. - Conceptual design of a few selected domains. - Selection of hardware and software tools for the development of the expert system

Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-05-01

The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

Analysis of stable isotope data to estimate vitamin A body stores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-06-01

Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is a serious public health problem in most developing countries. Because of the detrimental effects of vitamin A deficiency on human health, accurate assessment of vitamin A status is necessary to develop and evaluate intervention programmes. The IAEA is providing technical support to its Member States to use stable isotope dilution techniques to develop and evaluate programmes aimed at reducing vitamin A deficiency in populations. The stable isotope dilution technique, in contrast to other methods, have the potential to provide a quantitative estimate of vitamin A concentration across the continuum of status, from deficient to excess vitamin A body stores. In 2004 the IAEA, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and HarvestPlus initiated the Vitamin A Tracer Task Force, made up of international experts. HarvestPlus is a Global Challenge Program of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). It is coordinated by the Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), a not-for-profit organization that conducts socially and environmentally progressive research aimed at reducing hunger and poverty and preserving natural resources in developing countries, located in Colombia, and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), located in the United States of America and whose mission is to provide policy solutions aimed at reducing hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. The role of the Vitamin A Tracer Task Force was to prepare three complementary publications on the use of stable isotope dilution techniques to assess vitamin A body stores. The first publication entitled 'Appropriate Use of Vitamin A Tracer (Stable Isotope) Methodology' was published in 2004 by USAID/International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI) through the Micronutrient Global Leadership (MGL) project with co-sponsorship of IAEA and HarvestPlus. The second handbook is on 'Vitamin A Tracer Dilution

Auditory memory function in expert chess players.

Science.gov (United States)

Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

2015-01-01

Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time.

The neural organization of perception in chess experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Krawczyk, Daniel C; Boggan, Amy L; McClelland, M Michelle; Bartlett, James C

2011-07-20

The human visual system responds to expertise, and it has been suggested that regions that process faces also process other objects of expertise including chess boards by experts. We tested whether chess and face processing overlap in brain activity using fMRI. Chess experts and novices exhibited face selective areas, but these regions showed no selectivity to chess configurations relative to other stimuli. We next compared neural responses to chess and to scrambled chess displays to isolate areas relevant to expertise. Areas within the posterior cingulate, orbitofrontal cortex, and right temporal cortex were active in this comparison in experts over novices. We also compared chess and face responses within the posterior cingulate and found this area responsive to chess only in experts. These findings indicate that the configurations in chess are not strongly processed by face-selective regions that are selective for faces in individuals who have expertise in both domains. Further, the area most consistently involved in chess did not show overlap with faces. Overall, these results suggest that expert visual processing may be similar at the level of recognition, but need not show the same neural correlates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

2013-09-01

The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Topics in expert system design methodologies and tools

CERN Document Server

Tasso, C

1989-01-01

Expert Systems are so far the most promising achievement of artificial intelligence research. Decision making, planning, design, control, supervision and diagnosis are areas where they are showing great potential. However, the establishment of expert system technology and its actual industrial impact are still limited by the lack of a sound, general and reliable design and construction methodology.This book has a dual purpose: to offer concrete guidelines and tools to the designers of expert systems, and to promote basic and applied research on methodologies and tools. It is a coordinated coll

Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty: STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY DIAGNOSTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

2016-04-01

In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

An expert system in medical diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raboanary, R.; Raoelina Andriambololona; Soffer, J.; Raboanary, J.

2001-01-01

Health problem is still a crucial one in some countries. It is so important that it becomes a major handicap in economic and social development. In order to solve this problem, we have conceived an expert system that we called MITSABO, which means TO HEAL, to help the physicians to diagnose tropical diseases. It is clear that by extending the data base and the knowledge base, we can extend the application of the software to more general areas. In our expert system, we used the concept of 'self organization' of neural network based on the determination of the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors associated to the correlation matrix XX t . The projection of the data on the two first eigenvectors gives a classification of the diseases which is used to get a first approach in the diagnosis of the patient. This diagnosis is improved by using an expert system which is built from the knowledge base.

Meanings & motives. Experts debating tobacco addiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Mars, Sarah G; Ling, Pamela M

2008-10-01

Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a "habituation" in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately.

ROBUST MPC FOR STABLE LINEAR SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.A. Rodrigues

2002-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new model predictive controller (MPC, which is robust for a class of model uncertainties, is developed. Systems with stable dynamics and time-invariant model uncertainty are treated. The development herein proposed is focused on real industrial systems where the controller is part of an on-line optimization scheme and works in the output-tracking mode. In addition, the system has a time-varying number of degrees of freedom since some of the manipulated inputs may become constrained. Moreover, the number of controlled outputs may also vary during system operation. Consequently, the actual system may show operating conditions with a number of controlled outputs larger than the number of available manipulated inputs. The proposed controller uses a state-space model, which is aimed at the representation of the output-predicted trajectory. Based on this model, a cost function is proposed whereby the output error is integrated along an infinite prediction horizon. It is considered the case of multiple operating points, where the controller stabilizes a set of models corresponding to different operating conditions for the system. It is shown that closed-loop stability is guaranteed by the feasibility of a linear matrix optimization problem.

A V ampersand V Program for a real time Operator Advisor expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hajek, B.K.; Hardy, C.R.; Miller, D.W.; Bhatnagar, R.

1989-01-01

This report discusses an Operator Advisor (OA) consisting of four integrated expert systems which has been under development at the Ohio State University since 1985. The OA was initially conceived as two independent systems, one to manage procedures for the operator, and the other to diagnose plant faults and to validate sensor data. The OA has used the Perry Nuclear Power Plant simulator as the reference plant. It has been programmed with knowledge gathered from power plant experts and plant documents. Following incremental programming, the OA has been tested off line by running scenarios on the plant simulator and verifying that the OA responded as predicted by the simulator. Specifications have been developed and periodically published in the literature over the past four years. These are currently being collected and expanded upon as part of a formal Verification and Validation (V ampersand V) Program. The V ampersand V Program is defined by three types of documents: specification documents, a V ampersand V document, and procedures to support implementation of the specifications and V ampersand V programs

Born with an ear for dialects? Structural plasticity in the expert phonetician brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Golestani, Narly; Price, Cathy J; Scott, Sophie K

2011-03-16

Are experts born with particular predispositions, or are they made through experience? We examined brain structure in expert phoneticians, individuals who are highly trained to analyze and transcribe speech. We found a positive correlation between the size of left pars opercularis and years of phonetic transcription training experience, illustrating how learning may affect brain structure. Phoneticians were also more likely to have multiple or split left transverse gyri in the auditory cortex than nonexpert controls, and the amount of phonetic transcription training did not predict auditory cortex morphology. The transverse gyri are thought to be established in utero; our results thus suggest that this gross morphological difference may have existed before the onset of phonetic training, and that its presence confers an advantage of sufficient magnitude to affect career choices. These results suggest complementary influences of domain-specific predispositions and experience-dependent brain malleability, influences that likely interact in determining not only how experience shapes the human brain but also why some individuals become engaged by certain fields of expertise.

A V and V program for a real time operator advisor expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hajek, B.K.; Hardy, C.R.; Miller, D.W.; Bhatnagar, R.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on an Operator Advisor (OA) consisting of four integrated expert systems under development at The Ohio State University since 1985. The OA was initially conceived as two independent systems, one to manage procedures for the operator, and the other to diagnose plant faults and to validate sensor data. The OA has used the Perry Nuclear Power Plant simulator as the reference plant. It has been programmed with knowledge gathered from power plant experts and plant documents. Following incremental programming, the OA has been tested off line by running scenarios on the plant simulator and verifying that the OA responded as predicted by the simulator. Specifications have been developed and periodically published in the literature over the past four years. These are currently being collected and expanded upon as part of a formal Verification and Validation (V and V) Program. The V and V Program is defined by three types of documents: specification documents, a V and V document, and procedures to support implementation of the specifications and V and V program

Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events: Expert judgment elicitation. Part 1: Expert panel results. Part 2: Project staff results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wheeler, T A; Cramond, W R [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S C [University of Hawii at Hilo (United States); Unwin, S D [Brookhaven National Laboratory (United States)

1989-04-01

Quantitative modeling techniques have limitations as to the resolution of important issues in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Not all issues can be resolved via the existing set of methods such as fault trees, event trees, statistical analyses, data collection, and computer simulation. Therefore, an expert judgment process was developed to address issues perceived as important to risk in the NUREG-1150 analysis but which could not be resolved with existing techniques. This process was applied to several issues that could significantly affect the internal event core damage frequencies of the PRAs performed on six light water reactors. Detailed descriptions of these issues and the results of the expert judgment elicitation are reported here, as well as an explanation of the methodology used and the procedure followed in performing the overall elicitation task. The process is time-consuming and expensive. However, the results are very useful, and represent an improvement over the draft NUREG-1150 analysis in the areas of expert selection, elicitation training, issue selection and presentation, elicitation of judgment and aggregation of results. The results are presented in two parts. Part documents the expert panel elicitations, where the most important issues were presented to a panel of experts convened from throughout the nuclear power risk assessment community. Part 2 documents the process by which the project staff performed expert judgment on other important issues, using the project staff as panel members. (author)

The rational thinking of expert opinion and communicating in courtroom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bing Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Since the past half century, expert testimony has played an increasingly important role in Chinese litigation. As the amount of expert testimony has grown, the issues about its admissibility and scientific foundation related to evidence are becoming to be questioned commonly. Since eighteenth central committee (China adopted the decision of the Central Committee of China on several important issues in promoting the legal system, the evidence was redefined to become the predominance in the whole proceeding. This article reviews the expert knowledge implicit in the opinions. It argues that the expert opinions ask judges to be aware of the role of communicationg between participants. Expert opinion is not only gained from laboratory, but also socially constructed in the rational expression and communication, which requir us think logically in terms of legal perceptions of science and expert knowledge in the empirical world.

Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flandoli, F. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Giorgi, E. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Aspinall, W.P. [Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, and Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury (United Kingdom); Neri, A., E-mail: neri@pi.ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy)

2011-10-15

The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy. - Highlights: > A new expert elicitation model, named Expected Relative Frequency (ERF), is presented. > A cross-validation approach to evaluate the performance of different elicitation models is applied. > The new ERF model shows the best performance with respect to the point-wise estimates.

Advisory expert system for test rig operator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zielczynski, P.

1994-01-01

The advisory expert system MAESTRO (Modular Advisory Expert System for Test Rig Operator) has been designed to guide the operator of large experimental installation during start-up, steady state and shut down. The installation is located in the research reactor MARIA in the Institute of Atomic Energy in Swierk, Poland. The system acquires and analyses on line signals from installation and performs two tasks in real time: leading the operator and monitoring of the installation (including signal validation). Systems tasks, architecture and knowledge representation concepts are described. The system is based on expert systems techniques what makes in phases of continuous change of process parameters and it has been achieved by special knowledge representation allowing its dynamical modification. (author). 147 refs, 42 figs, 5 tab

An expert system approach for safety diagnosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdmann, R.C.; Sun, B.K.H.

1988-01-01

An expert system was developed with the intent to provide real-time information about an accident to an operator who is in the process of diagnosing and bringing that accident under control. Explicit use was made of probabilistic risk analysis techniques and plant accident response information in constructing this system. The expert system developed contains 70 logic rules and provides contextual messages during simulated accident sequences and logic sequence information on the entire sequence in graphical form for accident diagnosis. The present analysis focuses on integrated control system-related transients with Babcock and Wilcox-type reactors. While the system developed here is limited in extent and was built for a composite reactor, it demonstrates that an expert system may enhance the operator's capability in the control room

An expert system for diesel generator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bley, D.C.; Read, J.W.; Kaplan, S.; Liming, J.K.; Brosee, N.M.; Hanley, D.W.

1987-01-01

The idea of developing artificial intelligence (AI) systems to capture the knowledge of human experts is receiving much attention these days. The idea is even more attractive when important expertise resides within a single individual, especially one who is nearing retirement and who has not otherwise recorded or passed along his important knowledge and thought processes. The diesel generators at Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station have performed exceptionally well, primarily due to the care and attention of one man. Therefore, the authors are constructing an expert system for the diagnosis of diesel generator problems at Pilgrim. This paper includes a description of the expert system design and operation, examples from the knowledge base, and sample diagnoses, so the reader can observe the process in action

Thermo-kinetic prediction of metastable and stable phase precipitation in Al–Zn–Mg series aluminium alloys during non-isothermal DSC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lang, Peter; Wojcik, Tomasz; Povoden-Karadeniz, Erwin; Falahati, Ahmad; Kozeschnik, Ernst

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comparison of laboratory Al–Zn–Mg alloy to industrial Al 7xxx series. • Heat flow evolution during non-isothermal DSC analysis is calculated. • TEM investigations of laboratory Al–Zn–Mg alloy at three pronounced temperatures. • Simulation and modelling of precipitation sequence. • Calculation and prediction of heat flow curves of Al 7xxx series. - Abstract: The technological properties of heat treatable Al–Zn–Mg alloys originate in the morphology and distribution of metastable particles. Starting from the solution-annealed condition, this paper describes the precipitate evolution during non-isothermal temperature changes, namely continuous heating differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis. The distribution and the morphology of the metastable and stable precipitates and the heat flow accompanying the precipitation process is investigated experimentally and calculated by numerical thermo-kinetic simulations. The computer simulation results of the sizes and distributions are confirmed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The theoretical background and the results of the investigations are discussed

Thermo-kinetic prediction of metastable and stable phase precipitation in Al–Zn–Mg series aluminium alloys during non-isothermal DSC analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lang, Peter, E-mail: pl404@cam.ac.uk [Department of Materials Science and Metallurgy, University of Cambridge, Charles Babbage Road 27, Cambridge CB3 0FS (United Kingdom); Wojcik, Tomasz [Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, Favoritenstraße 9-11, Vienna 1040 (Austria); Povoden-Karadeniz, Erwin [Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, Favoritenstraße 9-11, Vienna 1040 (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory “Early Stages of Precipitation”, Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, Favoritenstraße 9-11, Vienna 1040 (Austria); Falahati, Ahmad [Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, Favoritenstraße 9-11, Vienna 1040 (Austria); Kozeschnik, Ernst [Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, Favoritenstraße 9-11, Vienna 1040 (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory “Early Stages of Precipitation”, Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, Favoritenstraße 9-11, Vienna 1040 (Austria)

2014-10-01

Highlights: • Comparison of laboratory Al–Zn–Mg alloy to industrial Al 7xxx series. • Heat flow evolution during non-isothermal DSC analysis is calculated. • TEM investigations of laboratory Al–Zn–Mg alloy at three pronounced temperatures. • Simulation and modelling of precipitation sequence. • Calculation and prediction of heat flow curves of Al 7xxx series. - Abstract: The technological properties of heat treatable Al–Zn–Mg alloys originate in the morphology and distribution of metastable particles. Starting from the solution-annealed condition, this paper describes the precipitate evolution during non-isothermal temperature changes, namely continuous heating differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis. The distribution and the morphology of the metastable and stable precipitates and the heat flow accompanying the precipitation process is investigated experimentally and calculated by numerical thermo-kinetic simulations. The computer simulation results of the sizes and distributions are confirmed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The theoretical background and the results of the investigations are discussed.

320-row CT coronary angiography predicts freedom from revascularisation and acts as a gatekeeper to defer invasive angiography in stable coronary artery disease: a fractional flow reserve-correlated study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, Brian S.; Wong, Dennis T.L.; Cameron, James D.; Leung, Michael; Meredith, Ian T.; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Antonis, Paul; Harper, Richard; Malaiapan, Yuvaraj; Seneviratne, Sujith K.; Leong, Darryl P.; Crossett, Marcus; Troupis, John

2014-01-01

To determine the accuracy of 320-row multidetector coronary computed tomography angiography (M320-CCTA) to detect functional stenoses using fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard and to predict revascularisation in stable coronary artery disease. One hundred and fifteen patients (230 vessels) underwent M320-CCTA and FFR assessment and were followed for 18 months. Diameter stenosis on invasive angiography (ICA) and M320-CCTA were assessed by consensus by two observers and significant stenosis was defined as ≥50 %. FFR ≤0.8 indicated functionally significant stenoses. M320-CCTA had 94 % sensitivity and 94 % negative predictive value (NPV) for FFR ≤0.8. Overall accuracy was 70 %, specificity 54 % and positive predictive value 65 %. On receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) for CCTA to predict FFR ≤0.8 was 0.74 which was comparable with ICA. The absence of a significant stenosis on M320-CCTA was associated with a 6 % revascularisation rate. M320-CCTA predicted revascularisation with an AUC of 0.71 which was comparable with ICA. M320-CCTA has excellent sensitivity and NPV for functional stenoses and therefore may act as an effective gatekeeper to defer ICA and revascularisation. Like ICA, M320-CCTA lacks specificity for functional stenoses and only has moderate accuracy to predict the need for revascularisation. (orig.)

Differences in gaze behaviour of expert and junior surgeons performing open inguinal hernia repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Tony; Pucher, Philip H; Sodergren, Mikael H; Sriskandarajah, Kumuthan; Yang, Guang-Zhong; Darzi, Ara

2015-02-01

Various fields have used gaze behaviour to evaluate task proficiency. This may also apply to surgery for the assessment of technical skill, but has not previously been explored in live surgery. The aim was to assess differences in gaze behaviour between expert and junior surgeons during open inguinal hernia repair. Gaze behaviour of expert and junior surgeons (defined by operative experience) performing the operation was recorded using eye-tracking glasses (SMI Eye Tracking Glasses 2.0, SensoMotoric Instruments, Germany). Primary endpoints were fixation frequency (steady eye gaze rate) and dwell time (fixation and saccades duration) and were analysed for designated areas of interest in the subject's visual field. Secondary endpoints were maximum pupil size, pupil rate of change (change frequency in pupil size) and pupil entropy (predictability of pupil change). NASA TLX scale measured perceived workload. Recorded metrics were compared between groups for the entire procedure and for comparable procedural segments. Twenty-five cases were recorded, with 13 operations analysed, from 9 surgeons giving 630 min of data, recorded at 30 Hz. Experts demonstrated higher fixation frequency (median[IQR] 1.86 [0.3] vs 0.96 [0.3]; P = 0.006) and dwell time on the operative site during application of mesh (792 [159] vs 469 [109] s; P = 0.028), closure of the external oblique (1.79 [0.2] vs 1.20 [0.6]; P = 0.003) (625 [154] vs 448 [147] s; P = 0.032) and dwelled more on the sterile field during cutting of mesh (716 [173] vs 268 [297] s; P = 0.019). NASA TLX scores indicated experts found the procedure less mentally demanding than juniors (3 [2] vs 12 [5.2]; P = 0.038). No subjects reported problems with wearing of the device, or obstruction of view. Use of portable eye-tracking technology in open surgery is feasible, without impinging surgical performance. Differences in gaze behaviour during open inguinal hernia repair can be seen between expert and junior surgeons and may have

Bioethics for Technical Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, Shigetaka

Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

The Most Quoted Danish Economic Expert and the Welfare State

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Poul Thøis

It is well-known that economic experts (as well as other experts) are biased. However, it is not normally demonstrated systematically. By identifying and analyzing the viewpoints of the most quoted Danish expert on five characteristic debates bias is demonstrated. The character of the bias...

Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

1997-12-31

Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)

Application of expert systems in damage assessment of reinforced concrete structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazel Zarandi, M. H.; Sobhani, J.

2003-01-01

Expert systems are receiving great attentions in construction industry to support decision making processes in diagnostics, design, repair and rehabilitation of the structures. Although several expert systems have been examined in engineering since the 1970's, their applications in construction industry are rate. This was largely due to the lack of expert system tools available to represent the domain knowledge. Lack of flexibility, applicability, and robustness of the classical models, have forced the scientists to discover the ability of the expert systems in problem solving of civil engineering. This paper present an expert system for diagnosis the deterioration of concrete structures. This expert system emphasizes on cracking distress in reinforced concrete elements. A case study has been presented to examine and evaluate the proposed expert system. The system demonstrates a straightforward method for diagnosing the cause of reinforced concrete elements cracking

Expert system based radionuclide identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

1998-01-01

An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

An Embedded Rule-Based Diagnostic Expert System in Ada

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Robert E.; Liberman, Eugene M.

1992-01-01

Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with it portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assumed a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability expertise for computer systems. The integration is discussed of expert system technology with Ada programming language, especially a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell. NASA Lewis was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-based power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert systems, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The rules were written in the ART-Ada development environment and converted to Ada source code. The graphics interface was developed with the Transportable Application Environment (TAE) Plus, which generates Ada source code to control graphics images. SMART-Ada communicates with a remote host to obtain either simulated or real data. The Ada source code generated with ART-Ada, TAE Plus, and communications code was incorporated into an Ada expert system that reads the data from a power distribution test bed, applies the rule to determine a fault, if one exists, and graphically displays it on the screen. The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

Effective search for stable segregation configurations at grain boundaries with data-mining techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Kiyohara, Shin; Mizoguchi, Teruyasu

2018-03-01

Grain boundary segregation of dopants plays a crucial role in materials properties. To investigate the dopant segregation behavior at the grain boundary, an enormous number of combinations have to be considered in the segregation of multiple dopants at the complex grain boundary structures. Here, two data mining techniques, the random-forests regression and the genetic algorithm, were applied to determine stable segregation sites at grain boundaries efficiently. Using the random-forests method, a predictive model was constructed from 2% of the segregation configurations and it has been shown that this model could determine the stable segregation configurations. Furthermore, the genetic algorithm also successfully determined the most stable segregation configuration with great efficiency. We demonstrate that these approaches are quite effective to investigate the dopant segregation behaviors at grain boundaries.

Expert system for diagnostics and status monitoring of NPP water chemistry condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shvedova, M.N.; Kritski, V.G.; Zakharova, S.V.; Benediktov, V.B.; Nikolaev, F.V.

2002-01-01

Water chemistry condition (WCC) has been the subject of constant study and improvement up to the present day. It is connected with the presence of a direct relationship between the violation of water chemistry regulation on the one hand and components reliability of the circuit's equipment and cost-effectiveness of their operation on the other. It dictates the necessity to apply different optimization methods in the field of monitoring and use of information analytical and diagnostic systems to assess WCC quality, control and support. LI ''VNIPIET'' employees have, for several years, been developing an expert diagnostic system for supporting WCC and status monitoring of RBMK - reactor NPPs [2]. This system has not only conveniently organized the traditional functions of information acquisition and storage, a complete presentation of information in the form of tables, graphs of a dynamical changes of parameters and formation regular reports, diagnostic functions and issuing recommendations on WCC correction, but it also allows the assessment of confidence in the diagnosis made, relying on a wide range of numerical estimates, which were calculated by the use of expert data, and to make a credible prediction of an existing situation development. (authors)

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: Validity and Dimensional Structure of the Stable-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Etzler, Sonja; Eher, Reinhard; Rettenberger, Martin

2018-02-01

In this study, the predictive and incremental validity of the Stable-2007 beyond the Static-99 was evaluated in an updated sample of N = 638 adult male sexual offenders followed-up for an average of M = 8.2 years. Data were collected at the Federal Evaluation Center for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in Austria within a prospective-longitudinal research design. Scores and risk categories of the Static-99 (AUC = .721; p risk categories contributed incrementally to the prediction of sexual recidivism beyond the Static-99. Analyzing the dimensional structure of the Stable-2007 yielded three factors, named Antisociality, Sexual Deviance, and Hypersexuality. Antisociality and Sexual Deviance were significant predictors for sexual recidivism. Sexual Deviance was negatively associated with non-sexual violent recidivism. Comparisons with latent dimensions of other risk assessment instruments are made and implications for applied risk assessment are discussed.

Expert Graphics System Research in the Department of the Navy.

Science.gov (United States)

Duff, Jon M.

1987-01-01

Presents current trends in the development of expert systems within the Department of the Navy, particularly research into expert graphics systems intended to support the Authoring Instructional Methods (AIM) research project. Defines artificial intelligence and expert systems. Discusses the operations and functions of the Navy's intelligent…

Expert System for ASIC Imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

1989-07-01

With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

Are signs of temporomandibular disorders stable and predictable in adolescents with headache?

Science.gov (United States)

Liljeström, M-R; Le Bell, Y; Laimi, K; Anttila, P; Aromaa, M; Jämsä, T; Metsähonkala, L; Vahlberg, T; Viander, S; Alanen, P; Sillanpää, M

2008-06-01

The aim of the present study was to study changes in signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and factors predicting TMD signs in adolescents with and without headache. A population-based sample (n = 212) of 13-year-olds with and without headache was re-examined at the age of 16. The study included a questionnaire, face-to-face interview and somatic examination. In addition, a neurological examination, a muscle evaluation and a stomatognathic examination were performed. Significant changes were seen in TMD signs during the follow-up, but TMD signs at the end of the follow-up could not be predicted by baseline headache, sleeping difficulties, depression or muscle pain. TMD signs at the age of 16 were associated with female gender and muscle pain. We conclude that considerable changes in TMD signs occur in the follow-up of adolescents with and without headache. Headache-related TMD are not predictable in adolescents with and without headache.

Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Kalinauskas

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Summary. The usage of expert systems in law brings many problematic questions. Complexity and intricacy of law, combined with limited possibilities of information technologies makes it difficult to create flawlessly working expert systems. In this article the author analyses problematic aspects related to expert system usage in law. Comparisons of various research are made according to analysis of scientific articles. The author analyses practical difficulties of legal norm representation, creation of expert knowledge ontology, expert systems liability issues. Legal responsibility of expert system developers, users, and owners are also covered in this paper. Creation of legal ontologies is a complicated process because of the nature of the subject itself and the complexity and quantity of knowledge which must be represented in order to have fully functional legal expert system. Legal information basically consists of legal norms, doctrine, precedents and expert knowledge. All of these areas have specific representation issues, but the most difficult part is to make ontology and representation of expert knowledge. Different experts may have distinct points of view in some similar cases. Human decisions are made not only by applying certain rules to the problem decision pattern. Providence, analytical skills and critical thinking is required in legal professional work. Human reasoning and decision-making is not only based on symbolic values, it also consists of intermediate symbolic assumptions. So the question is: is it possible to give a clear structure to something which has no permanent state? The other problem which is analyzed in this article is artificial reasoning methods, which are basically different forms of pattern recognition with some specific methods applied to them. The second part of the paper analyses the liability of expert systems. Nowadays expert systems can’t be legally responsible for their decisions. They lack

Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Kalinauskas

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The usage of expert systems in law brings many problematic questions. Complexity and intricacy of law, combined with limited possibilities of information technologies makes it difficult to create flawlessly working expert systems. In this article the author analyses problematic aspects related to expert system usage in law. Comparisons of various research are made according to analysis of scientific articles. The author analyses practical difficulties of legal norm representation, creation of expert knowledge ontology, expert systems liability issues. Legal responsibility of expert system developers, users, and owners are also covered in this paper. Creation of legal ontologies is a complicated process because of the nature of the subject itself and the complexity and quantity of knowledge which must be represented in order to have fully functional legal expert system. Legal information basically consists of legal norms, doctrine, precedents and expert knowledge. All of these areas have specific representation issues, but the most difficult part is to make ontology and representation of expert knowledge. Different experts may have distinct points of view in some similar cases. Human decisions are made not only by applying certain rules to the problem decision pattern. Providence, analytical skills and critical thinking is required in legal professional work. Human reasoning and decision-making is not only based on symbolic values, it also consists of intermediate symbolic assumptions. So the question is: is it possible to give a clear structure to something which has no permanent state? The other problem which is analyzed in this article is artificial reasoning methods, which are basically different forms of pattern recognition with some specific methods applied to them. The second part of the paper analyses the liability of expert systems. Nowadays expert systems can’t be legally responsible for their decisions. They lack intellectual

Expert System Applications for the Electric Power Industry: Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-06-01

A conference on Expert System Applications for the Electric Power Industry was held in Boston on September 8--11, 1991 to provide a forum for technology transfer, technical information exchange, and education. The conference was attended by more than 150 representatives of electric utilities, equipment manufacturers, engineering consulting organizations, universities, national laboratories, and government agencies. The meeting included a keynote address, 70 papers, and 18 expert system demonstrations. Sessions covered expert systems in power system planning operations, fossil power plant applications, nuclear power plant applications, and intelligent user interfaces. The presentations showed how expert systems can provide immediate benefits to the electric power industry in many applications. Individual papers are indexed separately

SAMEX: A severe accident management support expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Soo-Yong; Ahn, Kwang-Il

2010-01-01

A decision support system for use in a severe accident management following an incident at a nuclear power plant is being developed which is aided by a severe accident risk database module and a severe accident management simulation module. The severe accident management support expert (SAMEX) system can provide the various types of diagnostic and predictive assistance based on the real-time plant specific safety parameters. It consists of four major modules as sub-systems: (a) severe accident risk data base module (SARDB), (b) risk-informed severe accident risk data base management module (RI-SARD), (c) severe accident management simulation module (SAMS), and (d) on-line severe accident management guidance module (on-line SAMG). The modules are integrated into a code package that executes within a WINDOWS XP operating environment, using extensive user friendly graphics control. In Korea, the integrated approach of the decision support system is being carried out under the nuclear R and D program planned by the Korean Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MEST). An objective of the project is to develop the support system which can show a theoretical possibility. If the system is feasible, the project team will recommend the radiation protection technical support center of a national regulatory body to implement a plant specific system, which is applicable to a real accident, for the purpose of immediate and various diagnosis based on the given plant status information and of prediction of an expected accident progression under a severe accident situation.

Deliberate practice is necessary but not sufficient to explain individual differences in piano sight-reading skill: the role of working memory capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Meinz, Elizabeth J; Hambrick, David Z

2010-07-01

Deliberate practice-that is, engagement in activities specifically designed to improve performance in a domain-is strongly predictive of performance in domains such as music and sports. It has even been suggested that deliberate practice is sufficient to account for expert performance. Less clear is whether basic abilities, such as working memory capacity (WMC), add to the prediction of expert performance, above and beyond deliberate practice. In evaluating participants having a wide range of piano-playing skill (novice to expert), we found that deliberate practice accounted for nearly half of the total variance in piano sight-reading performance. However, there was an incremental positive effect of WMC, and there was no evidence that deliberate practice reduced this effect. Evidence indicates that WMC is highly general, stable, and heritable, and thus our results call into question the view that expert performance is solely a reflection of deliberate practice.

Expert elicitation and the problem of detecting undeclared activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Sylvester, Kori Budlong; Stanbro, William D.

2002-01-01

Measures applicable to the detection of undeclared activities are not well established, and their effectiveness is uncertain. To detect clandestine paths, the IAEA is still developing processes and procedures. As the Agency gains experience with new measures and with integrated safeguards, dealing with such problems may become more experience-based and perhaps more closely parallel the process with current safeguards where detection probabilities for the measures to be utilized on declared paths are well characterized. Whether or not this point will be reached for undeclared and mixed paths, the only tool that appears suitable at present for the purpose of generating a reasonable detection probability that can over time be tested against reality and, if necessary, adjusted is formal expert judgment, or expert elicitation. Formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. To provide a 'proof of principle' of this methodology for presentation to the Agency, experts in nuclear technology, nonproliferation, safeguards and open source information, as well as in formal expert elicitation processes, engaged in three illustrative expert elicitations on assessing information analysis as a means to detect undeclared activities. These elicitations were successful. This paper will discuss the process of and issues raised by the elicitations.

Stable isotopes in human nutrition research. Final report on an IAEA co-ordinated research programme, Vienna, Austria, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Co-ordinated Research Programme (CRP) on Applications of Stable Isotope Tracers in Human Nutrition Research was established by the Agency in October 1988 and was completed in 1992. At various times during this period the CRP encompassed 16 participants in 16 countries. Its general objective was to help establish competence in the use of stable isotope techniques, particularly in developing countries, and particularly with reference to applications of 2 H, 13 C, 15 N, and 18 O in human nutrition research. Thereby it was hoped that it would be possible (i) to identify centres and scientists throughout the developing world who could use stable isotopes in human nutrition research, (ii) to assess the need for methodological adaptations for isotope-based methods in developing countries, and (iii) to advance the competence of the participants in using stable isotopes as tracers of human metabolism. In addition it was expected that the CRP would make a study of some major questions which have been identified by international groups of nutrition experts, particularly in areas relating to energy and protein metabolism. This document comprises copies of the working papers submitted by all CRP participants who contributed a final report on their project. These reports include details of the rationale, methods, results and interpretations from each of the respective studies. Refs, figs and tabs

One-dimensional stable distributions

CERN Document Server

Zolotarev, V M

1986-01-01

This is the first book specifically devoted to a systematic exposition of the essential facts known about the properties of stable distributions. In addition to its main focus on the analytic properties of stable laws, the book also includes examples of the occurrence of stable distributions in applied problems and a chapter on the problem of statistical estimation of the parameters determining stable laws. A valuable feature of the book is the author's use of several formally different ways of expressing characteristic functions corresponding to these laws.

AN EXPERT SYSTEM USED IN DESIGN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hüdayim BAŞAK

2001-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, an expert system used in computer aided design has been developed. In the developed program, the features which are used in the models prepared by a feature based design program are evaluated by the expert system module and are used in part modeling after determining of their compatibilty according to the rules. This program, particulary for those who do not know or know very little manufacturing stages, accomplishes the duty of informing and directing them. The program developed warns the user for design mistakes made during modeling.

The Management and Security Expert (MASE)

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Mark D.; Barr, Stanley J.; Gryphon, Coranth D.; Keegan, Jeff; Kniker, Catherine A.; Krolak, Patrick D.

1991-01-01

The Management and Security Expert (MASE) is a distributed expert system that monitors the operating systems and applications of a network. It is capable of gleaning the information provided by the different operating systems in order to optimize hardware and software performance; recognize potential hardware and/or software failure, and either repair the problem before it becomes an emergency, or notify the systems manager of the problem; and monitor applications and known security holes for indications of an intruder or virus. MASE can eradicate much of the guess work of system management.

A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus

2010-01-01

This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

2006-11-01

An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

Studying biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 through Carbon-13 stable isotopes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Velde, van der I.R.

2015-01-01

Summary Thesis ‘Studying biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 through

carbon-13 stable isotopes’

Ivar van der Velde

Making predictions of future climate is difficult, mainly due to large uncertainties in the carbon cycle. The rate at which carbon is stored in the oceans and