WorldWideScience

Sample records for expert opinion steuerreform

  1. Tax reform for ecologic reasons: The basic legal situation in Germany. Expert opinion; Steuerreform unter oekologischen Aspekten: Rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen. Gutachterliche Stellungnahme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birk, D.; Eckhoff, R. [Muenster Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Steuerrecht

    1999-04-01

    A model simulating the outcome of an ecologic tax reform in Germany is presented and discussed. The model was elaborated by Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) and Finanzwissenschaftliches Forschungsinstitut (Fifo) of Cologne University. The model sets out the framework and scope of such a tax reform, as well as individual policy instruments, such as introduction of tax on energy consumption, an increase of the mineral oil tax, introduction of a road-use tax, introduction of new and increase of existing charges for waste management, a modification and increase of the sewage levy, and in the long run, introduction of a tax on land consumption by built environments. An analysis of the redistributional effects of the theoretical tax on energy consumption together with the increased mineral oil tax revealed that the prorated expenses for energy in relation to total incomes and revenues are declining with rising income. Especially the prorated expense for automotive fuels shows a particularly steep rise, which is calculated by the model to decline again only within the group of households with a very high income. The financial burden effect of the energy tax in relation to the available income and revenues is described by a regressive curve similar to the energy expenses curve, other than with the tax burden curve due to the increased mineral oil tax, which is calculated to have a regressive effect only at higher income levels, i.e. from a private household net income of DM 4000. Considering however the tax burden effects resulting from both the energy tax and the increased mineral oil tax, for all private hoseholds, a regressive effect is expected to set in as from a household income of DM 1000. (orig./CB) [Deutsch] Das vom Deutschen Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) und vom Finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstitut der Universitaet zu Koeln (Fifo) entworfene Modell einer oekologischen Steuerreform sieht die Einfuehrung einer Energiesteuer, eine

  2. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  3. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  4. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  5. Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

    1989-01-01

    In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

  6. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elstner, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

  7. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  8. Expert opinion on climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

  9. Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Jennifer

    1987-01-01

    A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest. (UK)

  10. The rational thinking of expert opinion and communicating in courtroom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the past half century, expert testimony has played an increasingly important role in Chinese litigation. As the amount of expert testimony has grown, the issues about its admissibility and scientific foundation related to evidence are becoming to be questioned commonly. Since eighteenth central committee (China adopted the decision of the Central Committee of China on several important issues in promoting the legal system, the evidence was redefined to become the predominance in the whole proceeding. This article reviews the expert knowledge implicit in the opinions. It argues that the expert opinions ask judges to be aware of the role of communicationg between participants. Expert opinion is not only gained from laboratory, but also socially constructed in the rational expression and communication, which requir us think logically in terms of legal perceptions of science and expert knowledge in the empirical world.

  11. Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion or good science? ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... Despite scientific evidence to the contrary, a popular incremental field test for endurance athletes (Conconi Test) ...

  12. Objectification of injuries and consequences in expert medical opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miran Vrabl

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Only unequivocal evidence confirming the total extent of injury. Biomechanical analysis, objectifications of permanent consequences after injury and objectification, whether such injuries influence life activities of an injured person, should be the basics for preparation of expert medical opinion. To make a necessary distinction from the previous injuries or illnesses that might have influence on current health state of a patient and its treatment, analysis of all medical records of a certain injured person is needed. Therefore this are inevitable steps in preparation of an expert medical opinion. In cases when medical opinion should explain disability of a patient as a consequence of a certain contractual relationship, the contract should be taken into consideration when such opinions is prepared.Methods: 500 opinions have been retrospectively analysed, selected at random out of 3452 opinions, submitted in claims for damages at Zavarovalnica Maribor, d. d., in the period from January 2001 until January 2006. Thirteen typical data have been analysed and evaluated on the basis of objective evidences.Results: On the basis of analyses it has been established that there is a great difference between principles of objectification and the data in analysed opinions. It has been noticed the most obvious deviation in biomechanical analysis (95 %, in records of decreased life activities (90 %, in all medical records of an injured person (65 % and in objectification of permanent consequences after injuries (55 %.Conclusions: As results of analysis demonstrate, there are significant differences in preparations of expert and medical opinions in Slovenia, particularly when basic principles are analysed that need to be considered when writing such opinions. Irrational avoidance of basic principle of objectification, nomination of experts without licence in certain fields of medicine, avoidance of objectification of subjective statements of injured

  13. Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weed, Roger O.

    2000-01-01

    This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

  14. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

    2007-01-01

    Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

  15. USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

  16. Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

    2011-01-01

    treatment of chronic TTH. Mirtazapine and venlafaxine are second-choice drugs. EXPERT OPINION: There is an urgent need for more research in nonpharmacological as well as pharmacological treatment possibilities of TTH. Future studies should examine the relative efficacy of the various treatment modalities...

  17. [Psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers in Germany].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieberer, Marcel; Ziegenbein, Marc; Eckhardt, Gudrun; Machleidt, Wielant; Calliess, Iris T

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the frequency of traumatisation, suicidality and given diagnoses in expert opinions on asylum seekers and to describe the sociodemographic characteristics of this population. The psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers, furnished in an 8-year-period at Hannover Medical School, were analysed retrospectively for qualitative and quantitative characteristics. 62 psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers were included in this study. The asylum seekers originated from 18 different countries, mainly from Turkey and former Yugoslavia. Most expert opinions were given in secondary asylum procedures, i. e. after the initial asylum request had been rejected. The asylum seekers reported on traumatisation in 82.3 %. The most frequently reported forms of traumatisation were rape in female, and torture in male persons. According to ICD-10 or DSM-IV-R criteria posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was the most frequent diagnosis (74.1 %) in this study. The second most common diagnoses were depressive disorders (ICD-10: F32.x in 33.9 % and ICD-10: F33.x in 25.9 %). Suicidal tendency was found in 56.5 % of the asylum seekers. Cultural differences, language barriers, a heavy burden by psychological symptoms, and clinical severity are difficulties in the process of psychiatric assessment of refugees in legal asylum procedures. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  18. Experts' opinions on the role of diet in caries prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Loveren, C; Duggal, M S

    2004-01-01

    A questionnaire was sent to 54 experts in preventive dentistry in 23 European countries in order to make an inventory of existing national dietary guidelines for the prevention of dental caries. In addition, the experts were asked to give their personal opinion on several issues concerning the relationship between diet and dental caries. Forty-five experts from 20 countries returned the questionnaire. In 13 European countries dietary guidelines for caries prevention were available issued by a National (Dental) Association or a Government Body. All guidelines emphasised a reduction of the frequency of intakes of cariogenic foods. Two of them included a threshold level for the amount of sugar. When asked for their personal opinions, almost all experts mentioned reduction of frequency of 'cariogenic' intakes as the principal dietary messages for caries prevention. Four experts, however, explicitly mentioned that proper oral hygiene with fluoride toothpaste is more important. There was no agreement among the experts about a daily number of cariogenic intakes in between meals that can be regarded as safe, nor whether the message: 'Use products with sugar substitutes' should be part of the dietary guidelines for the prevention of dental caries. There was no agreement amongst experts on preventive dentistry in Europe on the contemporary validity of the paradigm: 'Sucrose is the arch criminal of dental caries.' Taking the variation in opinions into account and the fact that a balanced diet may lead to a moderate eating and snacking frequency, the authors propose that the emphasis on good versus bad foods for caries prevention should be replaced by an emphasis on good versus bad diets. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

  19. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-01

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To validate the developed method

  20. Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

    1994-01-01

    We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

  1. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS...

  2. Ustekinumab in the management of Crohn's disease: Expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armuzzi, Alessandro; Ardizzone, Sandro; Biancone, Livia; Castiglione, Fabiana; Danese, Silvio; Gionchetti, Paolo; Orlando, Ambrogio; Rizzello, Fernando; Scribano, Maria Lia; Vecchi, Maurizio; Daperno, Marco

    2018-03-11

    This expert-opinion paper reviews available evidence for the use of ustekinumab, a human interleukin 12/23 monoclonal antibody, in the treatment of Crohn's disease and discusses its potential role in the current treatment scenario for the condition. Ustekinumab appears to be associated with rapid and sustained clinical effect, as reported from the clinical research program, with additional support for potential mucosal healing. These characteristics are paralleled by a favorable safety profile, lack of immunogenicity and the presence of systemic anti-inflammatory activity. Importantly, ustekinumab requires only one single intravenous administration, while subsequent dosing is administered subcutaneously, with potential advantages for home-based therapy. Lastly, the dosage of ustekinumab is flexible. On the basis of the evidence, ustekinumab has a role in patients with primary failure or secondary loss of response to anti-tumor necrosis factor agents, as well as in those who have adverse events on front-line biologics or are reinitiating therapy after a treatment holiday. Current evidence suggests that ustekinumab may be particularly suitable in patients who present extra-intestinal manifestations of the disease or are at risk of infections. Ustekinumab may also be considered in the first-line setting, especially in frail patients, in young subjects or in those who have concomitant immune-mediated diseases. Copyright © 2018 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Perspectives of tax reforms in Croatia: expert opinion survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrvoje Šimović

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to shape tax reform it is necessary objectively to assess the current stateof-the-art of and of the outlook for the tax system. After having reviewed all previous reforms in the light of the consumption-based (interest-adjusted concept of direct taxation, which was almost systematically implemented in Croatia in 1994, we present the results of a broad expert opinion survey about the Croatian tax system. The most interesting results suggest the maintenance/(reintroduction of different tax incentives and reduced VAT rates, rejection of a flat tax as well as decrease of tax brackets, an increase in alcohol and tobacco duties, the introduction of a financial activities tax, a further shift from income to consumption, a decrease of the tax share in GDP and a belief in the behavioral responsiveness of tax decreases/exemptions, as well as a firm commitment to the principle of equity. The last three economic views/values are important predictors of other tax attitudes.

  4. Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

    2011-01-01

    A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

  5. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence: the precautionary principle applied to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops.

  6. Expert Opinion Elicitation Using Fuzzy Set Theory and Distempers-Shaker's Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Donghan

    1993-01-01

    This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation. The need to work with rare events and limited data is severe accident have led analysts to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approaches using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited data and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining fuzzy probabilities in a manner consistent with the Distempers-Shaper's Theory (DDT). The propagation of fuzzy probabilities through a system is also introduced

  7. [Digitalisation of palmar pattern configurations. Practicability in the anthropologic-heredobiological expert opinion (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berghaus, G; Baitsch, H

    1980-01-01

    A half-automatic technique for extracting characteristics from handprints is presented. Characteristics of the mainline system are defined from the co-ordinate aggregates. The practicability of the method in the anthropologic-heredobiological expert opinion is discussed.

  8. Oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism: Expert opinion versus current practice: Combined results of a systematic review, expert panel opinion and an international survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, F. A.; Schreiber, K.; Stach, K.; Ageno, W.; Middeldorp, S.; Eichinger, S.; Delluc, A.; Blondon, M.; Ay, C.

    2017-01-01

    The optimal management of oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is largely unknown. We aimed to elicit expert opinion and compare that to current practice as assessed by a world-wide international web-based survey among physicians. 10

  9. Child abuse consultations initiated by child protective services: the role of expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Lindsay; Martin, Kimberly D; Leventhal, John M

    2011-01-01

    To describe consultations provided by child abuse pediatricians for cases referred by child protective services (CPS); compare the opinions of the likelihood of child maltreatment of the initial physician, CPS, and the child abuse pediatrician; and examine predictors of the experts' opinions. Cases were referred by CPS for consultations between March 1, 1998, and June 30, 2005, to 2 child abuse pediatricians at Yale-New Haven Children's Hospital. We abstracted demographic and clinical information and the opinions of the initial physician, CPS, and the child abuse expert, each coded using a 5-point scale from definite maltreatment to definite benign cause (eg, accident). Of 187 cases, 50.3% occurred in children younger than 1 year of age. Children's most serious injuries were fractures (50.8%), burns (16.6%), and bruises/abrasions (15.0%). The child abuse experts' opinions were 47.6% definite or probable maltreatment, 8.6% uncertain, and 43.9% definite or probable benign. Of the 119 cases with opinions from all 3 assessors, the expert agreed with the physician in 57.1% of cases (κ = 0.34) and with CPS in 64.7% (κ = 0.42). The best predictor of the expert's opinion that the injury was due to maltreatment was agreement between the physician and CPS that maltreatment had occurred. Levels of agreement were fair to poor between the child abuse expert and either the physician or CPS. Child abuse experts' opinions have important value in selected cases to confirm previous assessments by the physician and/or CPS, or to change the opinion of the case. Copyright © 2011 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

    2013-05-01

    What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

  11. The opinion of experts in the assessment of reliability in nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akersten, P.A.; Wirstad, J.

    1983-06-01

    An inventory of methods used for quantifying of the opinion of experts for use in fault tree evaluations is presented. A number of different methods are evaluated and future research is recommended for three, namely 1. Saatys Analytical Hierarchy Process. 2. Embreys SLIM-method with variations. 3. Methods for feed-back from the expert group during evaluation.(authors)

  12. The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1998-01-01

    When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

  13. Experts' opinion on the radioecology of the waste water of Esensham nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bliefert, M.; Marks, R.; Meier, A.; Wallenschus, M.

    1978-01-01

    Review of the legal steps taken in the dispute over the radiation burden due to the nuclear power plant. There are the experts Prof. Feld (official expert's opunion) with 0.0028 mrem/a and Prof. Bleck (plaintiff's expert's opinion) with 230 mrem/a. The different values obtained are attributed to transfer factors of Cs and to a manipulation of dose factors. (GL) [de

  14. Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

  15. Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V Hampson

    Full Text Available Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa.A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.

  16. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts; Umweltpolitik. Umweltgutachten 2000 des Rates von Sachverstaendigen fuer Umweltfragen. Schritte ins naechste Jahrtausend. Kurzfassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states. [German] Eines der Schwerpunktthemen des Umweltgutachtens ist die Neuordnung der Energiepolitik. Der Umweltrat haelt die weitere Nutzung der Atomenergie vor allem wegen der Risiken der Entsorgung nicht fuer verantwortbar. Er befuerwortet die Einleitung einer Energiewende. Zur oekologischen Steuerreform werden weiterfuehrende Empfehlungen unterbreitet. An vielen Stellen nimmt der Rat die Umweltpolitik auch kritisch unter die Lupe. Er weist auf den hohen Handlungsbedarf im Naturschutz hin. Eine dauerhafte Trendwende beim Grad der Gefaehrdung heimischer Tier- und Pflanzenarten sei in Deutschland noch nicht erreicht. Der Rat bestaetigt in diesem Zusammenhang die naturschutzpolitische Konzeption der Bundesregierung fuer einen Naturschutz auf der ganzen Flaeche, kombiniert mit einem grossflaechigen Biotopverbundsystem auf 10% der Landesflaeche. Der

  17. Expert panel on additional cross subsidisation. Considering arguments and providing expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faber, J.; Nelissen, D.; Lowe, S.; Mason, A.

    2007-10-01

    In the period end 2005 till September 2006 MVA London in cooperation with SEO Amsterdam was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Transport to perform an analysis of the economic and competition effects of the different proposals from the European Commission to include aviation in the European Emission Trading System (ETS). Roughly at the same time CE Delft was commissioned to study the overall impacts of this inclusion for the European Commission. Both studies considered the possibility that inclusion of aviation in the ETS could lead to the distortion of competition between airlines through cross-subsidisation. The studies concluded differently on additional possibilities for cross-subsidisation. As a result, both parties have different views on the possible distortion of the competitive market on routes where EU-based carriers compete directly with carriers based outside the EU. CE Delft concluded that 'none of the policy options considered in this study will significantly damage the competitive position of EU airlines relative to non-EU airlines'. In contrast, MVA and SEO (2006) concluded that 'effective cross-subsidisation by non-EU carriers in the Departing EU scope of the ETS appears to be more probable than cross-subsidisation by EU network carriers in the Intra-EU scope of the ETS'. In July 2007, the Dutch Ministry of Transport, DGTL commissioned CE Delft, MVA and SEO to study the causes for their different opinions and to see whether a further investigation could shed more light on the likelihood of additional cross-subsidisation. Formally, the aim of the work currently carried out is: (1) To determine whether it is possible to assess the impacts on the competitive market between EU based carriers and non-EU based carriers based on sound economic reasoning and analysis of empirical data; and, if so, (2) to determine whether the inclusion of aviation in ETS as proposed by the European Commission will offer non-EU airlines the opportunity to increase their

  18. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion; Ozon in der Troposphaere. Bildung, Eigenschaften, Wirkungen. Gutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elstner, E.F. [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Phytopathologie

    1996-06-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [Deutsch] Das Gutachten nimmt nur am Rande die Problematik der Bildung und Ausbreitung von troposphaerischen Ozon auf; Im Mittelpunkt steht die Auseinandersetzung mit den Wirkungen des bodennahen Ozons auf Pflanze, Tier und Mensch. Das Gutachten basiert auf einer Analyse der zugaenglichen wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten. (orig./MG)

  19. Belief in nuclear energy: Attitudes and opinions of Dutch nuclear experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arts, F.; Klaassen, R.; De Ruiter, W.

    1994-01-01

    The public opinion in the Netherlands about nuclear energy has been rather stable during recent years. Since the Chernobyl accident roughly 60% of the Dutch population is opposed to extension of the use of nuclear energy. Nuclear experts play an important role in the formation of public opinion about nuclear energy. In this paper the social and cultural background of 87 Dutch nuclear energy experts is analyzed with respect to religious belief, age, life style, membership of a political party, birth order and career pattern. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 16 refs

  20. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  1. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1Maryam Kazemi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan. Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

  2. Patriotic Education of Youth in Russia: Problems, Opinions, Expert Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Жанна Васильевна Пузанова

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Patriotism is designated as a national idea in Russia; nowadays the questions the relevance of patriotic education of the most reactive of social groups - young people - is especially acute. Round table in the format of focus groups with 20 experts working with young people, among them - professors, teachers, veterans, employees public authorities to work with youth was held on the 27th of May 2016 on the basis of the museum-panorama “Battle of Stalingrad” in Volgograd, with the assistance of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. During the two-hour round table were discussed issues of civil and patriotic education of youth, including the theme - “Ultrapatriotizm-Patriotism-pseudo-patriotism” (ratio of the concepts, their similarities and differences, manifestations in modern Russian society among young people, “Today's youth and moral conflicts” (spiritually-moral development of today's youth, its values, “infantilism - the scourge of modern youth?” (problem of infantilism as a barrier in the way of civic and patriotic education, “Does extremist views attractive for young people?” (the attitude of youth to extremism and terrorism, effective countermeasures of youth involvement in extremist groups.

  3. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Kazemi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan.  Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

  4. Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

    2015-01-01

    Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

  5. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions).

  6. Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

    2018-02-01

    Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third......-line treatment for CSU. However, the definition of response to omalizumab treatment often differs between clinical trials, real-world studies, and daily practice of individual physicians globally. As such, a consensus definition of "complete", "partial" and "non-response" to omalizumab is required in order...... into a patient's disease burden and its changes during treatment. A potential omalizumab treatment approach based on speed and pattern of response at 1-3 and 3-6 months is suggested. In cases where there is no response during the first 1-3 months, physicians should consider reassessing the original CSU diagnosis...

  8. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

  9. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  10. Key considerations for preventing suicide in older adults: consensus opinions of an expert panel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete; Conwell, Yeates

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The number of older adults is growing rapidly. This fact, combined with the high rates of suicide in later life, indicates that many more older adults will die by their own hands before rigorous trials can be conducted to fully understand the best approaches to prevent late life suicide....... AIMS: To disseminate key considerations for interventions addressing senior suicidal behavior. METHODS: An international expert panel has reviewed and discussed key considerations for interventions against suicide in older adults based on existing evidence, where available, and expert opinion. RESULTS...

  11. Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: an example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garabed, R B; Perez, A M; Johnson, W O; Thurmond, M C

    2009-11-01

    When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts' opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for "diagnosing" country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts' responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

  12. Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J

    2016-03-01

    Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

  14. Interdisciplinary management of EGFR-inhibitor-induced skin reactions: a German expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potthoff, K; Hofheinz, R; Hassel, J C; Volkenandt, M; Lordick, F; Hartmann, J T; Karthaus, M; Riess, H; Lipp, H P; Hauschild, A; Trarbach, T; Wollenberg, A

    2011-03-01

    Anti-epidermal growth factor receptor treatment strategies, i.e. monoclonal antibodies such as cetuximab and panitumumab, or epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as erlotinib and gefitinib, have expanded the treatment options for different tumor types. Dermatologic toxic effects are the most common side-effects of EGFR inhibitor therapy. They can profoundly affect the patient's quality of life. The aim of this study was to provide interdisciplinary expert recommendations on how to treat patients with skin reactions undergoing anti-EGFR treatment. An expert panel from Germany with expertise in medical oncology, dermatology or clinical pharmacology was convened to develop expert recommendations based on published peer-reviewed literature. The expert recommendations for the state-of-the-art treatment of skin reactions induced by EGFR inhibitor therapy include recommendations for diagnostics and grading as well as grade-specific and stage-adapted treatment approaches and preventive measures. It was concluded that EGFR-inhibitor-related dermatologic reactions should always be treated combining basic care of the skin and a specific therapy adapted to stage and grade of skin reaction. For grade 2 and above, specific treatment recommendations for early- and later-stage skin reactions induced by EGFR-inhibitor therapy were proposed. This paper presents a German national expert opinion for the treatment of skin reactions in patients receiving EGFR inhibitor therapy.

  15. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Vives-Cases

    Full Text Available Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

  16. Expert opinion on detecting and treating depression in palliative care: A Delphi study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hotopf Matthew

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a dearth of data regarding the optimal method of detecting and treating depression in palliative care. This study applied the Delphi method to evaluate expert opinion on choice of screening tool, choice of antidepressant and choice of psychological therapy. The aim was to inform the development of best practice recommendations for the European Palliative Care Research Collaborative clinical practice guideline on managing depression in palliative care. Methods 18 members of an international, multi-professional expert group completed a structured questionnaire in two rounds, rating their agreement with proposed items on a scale from 0-10 and annotating with additional comments. The median and range were calculated to give a statistical average of the experts' ratings. Results There was contention regarding the benefits of screening, with 'routine informal asking' (median 8.5 (0-10 rated more highly than formal screening tools such as the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (median 7.0 (1-10. Mirtazapine (median 9 (7-10 and citalopram (median 9 (5-10 were the considered the best choice of antidepressant and cognitive behavioural therapy (median 9.0 (3-10 the best choice of psychological therapy. Conclusions The range of expert ratings was broad, indicating discordance in the views of experts. Direct comparative data from randomised controlled trials are needed to strengthen the evidence-base and achieve clarity on how best to detect and treat depression in this setting.

  17. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-15

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To

  18. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  19. Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding. [Of radioactive waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J

    1987-02-01

    A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest.

  20. Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

  1. Forensic medicine experts' opinion on medico-legal autopsies in hospital deaths: a questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Deepak Herald; Pant, Sadip; Menezes, Ritesh George

    2013-10-01

    Medico-legal autopsy is conducted routinely in some countries and selectively in others in hospital deaths. This study was conducted to evaluate the views of the forensic medicine experts regarding this matter. A questionnaire pro forma was sent to sixty-five forensic medicine experts practicing in different medical institutions all around India. Designations and experiences of the participants were noted by requests in the same questionnaire. Their specific experience in conducting medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths was also requested for. Responses were charted in frequency distribution tables and analyzed using SPSS, version 17.0. One-third of the participants felt that a medico-legal autopsy was necessary in all the hospital death cases as defined in the present study. Ten percent of the participants opined that a medico-legal autopsy was unnecessary in hospital deaths. The majority of the experts mentioned finding the cause of death, followed by finding the manner of death and collecting the evidentiary materials, as the reasons for medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths. Twenty percent of the participants felt that internal findings at autopsy poorly matched with the case records. All the experts agreed that external autopsy findings matched with the hospital case records. Nearly two-third of the participants felt that it was difficult in some cases to interpret the autopsy findings without case records from the hospital where the deceased was treated. Our findings suggest that the exercise of carrying out medico-legal autopsy routinely in every hospital death as evident in the Indian framework is often unnecessary as per the experts' opinion. Autopsy findings in hospital deaths often correlate with hospital case records.

  2. On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

    2017-09-04

    To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

  3. Development of the Paris Definition of Early Crohn's Disease for Disease-Modification Trials: Results of an International Expert Opinion Process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D. R.; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J.

    2012-01-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and

  4. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  5. Evaluating Presence Data versus Expert Opinions to Assess Occurrence, Habitat Preferences and Landscape Permeability: A Case Study of Butterflies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Arfan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI. Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

  6. The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

  7. Expert opinion in the management of aqueous Deficient Dry Eye Disease (DED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sy, Aileen; O'Brien, Kieran S; Liu, Margaret P; Cuddapah, Puja A; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M; Rose-Nussbaumer, Jennifer

    2015-10-13

    Dry eye disease (DED) affects millions of people worldwide. There are a variety of new treatments beyond traditional therapies such as preservative free artificial tears. Here, we conduct a survey to identify the most common treatments used among specialists and assess their interest in newer therapies. An international survey was distributed to dry eye researchers and expert practitioners via an internet survey. The survey data collected were analyzed with descriptive statistics. One hundred and fifteen respondents completed the survey; of these, 66 % were cornea specialists. The most commonly prescribed topical treatments included cyclosporine A (CSA) 0.05 % (71/104, 68 %), fluorometholone (FML) 0.1 % (59/99, 60 %), loteprednol etabonate 0.5 % (50/99, 51 %), and autologous serum eye drops (ASD; 48/97, 49 %). The most commonly prescribed non-topical medications included essential fatty acid supplements (72/104, 69 %), low-dose doxycycline (oral; 61/100, 61 %), and flaxseed supplements (32/96, 33 %) as well as punctal plugs (76/102, 75 %). Respondents reported treatment with topical corticosteroids for 2 to 8 weeks (46/86, 53 %), followed by less than 2 weeks (24/86, 28 %) and with topical CSA between 2 to 8 weeks (45/85, 53 %) followed by 2 to 6 months (24/85, 28 %). The top three signs and symptoms reported to indicate treatment response were, in order, fluorescein staining of the cornea, reduction in foreign body sensation, and reduction in burning sensation. This survey offers insight into current expert opinion in the treatment of DED. The results of this survey are hypothesis generating and will aid in the design of future clinical studies.

  8. Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Ehud; Sharfman, Zachary T; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3-8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions.

  9. Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Astiaso Garcia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical, hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into chemical energy by means of the electrolysis of water which does not produce any toxic or climate-relevant emission. This paper aims to pinpoint the potential uses of renewable hydrogen storage systems in Europe, analysing current and potential locations, regulatory framework, governments’ outlooks, economic issues, and available renewable energy amounts. The expert opinion survey, already used in many research articles on different topics including energy, has been selected as an effective method to produce realistic results. The obtained results highlight strategies and actions to optimize the storage of hydrogen produced by renewables to face varying electricity demand and generation-driven fluctuations reducing the negative effects of the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix of European Countries.

  10. Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler D. Eddy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation, compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

  11. Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30-40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention.

  12. Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddy, Tyler D; Cheung, William W L; Bruno, John F

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the 'shifting baseline syndrome'. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

  13. Environment and health. Realistic risk assessment. Special expert opinion; Umwelt und Gesundheit. Risiken richtig einschaetzen. Sondergutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-01

    In this special expert opinion, the Environmental Council discusses the problem of how to assess the risk of environment-induced health hazards. In many cases, there is a discrepancy between scientific risk assessment and subjective risk perception of the exposed population in this context. The Environmental Council suggests that communication between all parties concerned should be improved by target-finding models and also proposes an integrative risk assessment procedure. It is particularly important to identify and characterize vulnerable groups by scientific methods. [German] In seinem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Gesundheit - Risiken richtig einschaetzen greift der Umweltrat die Problematik von Risikoabschaetzungen umweltbedingter Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen auf. In diesem Zusammenhang ist vielfach eine Diskrepanz zwischen wissenschaftlicher Risikoabschaetzung und der subjektiven Risikowahrnehmung seitens der Betroffenen festzustellen. Der Umweltrat verweist zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation zwischen den beteiligten Gruppen auf entsprechende Modelle zur Zielfindung und schlaegt einen integrativen Ansatz zur Risikobewertung vor. Von besonderer Bedeutung bei der Bewertung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen ist die wissenschaftlich begruendete Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von empfindlichen Gruppen (vulnerablen Gruppen). (orig.)

  14. A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

    2011-01-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

  15. Evidence - based pharmacological treatment of atopic dermatitis: An expert opinion and new expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold P Oranje

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Atopic dermatitis (AD is one of the most common skin diseases with a complex multifactorial background. The clinical presentation, the aggravating factors and the complications vary according to the age of the patients. Most cases, approximately 60-80%, present for the 1 st time before the age of 12 months. Adult-onset AD has been observed as a special variant. Pruritus is the worst sign of AD, which also often indicates an exacerbation and is considered to be the most annoying symptom of AD. Treatment is preferably started based on the severity of AD. In only 10% of the cases, AD is so severe that systemic treatment is necessary. Systemic treatment including topical wet-wrap treatment is indicated in the worst and recalcitrant cases of AD. Systemic treatment of AD is discussed with regards to the evidence-based efficacy and safety aspects. I prefer wet-wraps as a crisis intervention in severe childhood cases, whereas UV and systemic treatments are the choices in patients older than 10 years. Probiotics are not useful in the treatment. If they have any effect at all it may only be in food-allergic children with AD. Finally, anti-histamines are not effective against pruritus in AD. They are only effective against urticarial flares and in cases with food-allergy. This article consists of an expert opinion on evidence-based pharmacological treatment of AD, but it is not a systemic review.

  16. The effect of popular exemplars and expert account base-rate information on perceived public opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lefevere, J.; Walgrave, S.; de Swert, K.

    2012-01-01

    How people perceive public opinion is important because it affects their willingness to express themselves. This paper investigates whether two different portrayals of public opinion in the TV news affect people’s perception of public opinion. We use an experimental design in which roughly one

  17. Expert opinion on laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer parallels evidence from a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Martel

    Full Text Available This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence.A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores.A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews. In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031 and open (n = 2,751 colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09. Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002-2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial.Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002-2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence.

  18. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

  19. Proposal for a structured computed tomography report in the evaluation of pancreatic neoplasms based on expert opinions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Paulo Gustavo Maciel; Matsumoto, Carlos Alberto; Lobo, Edson José; D' Ippolito, Giuseppe, E-mail: pgmlopes87@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), SP (Brazil). Escola de Medicina

    2018-03-15

    Objective: To create a structured computed tomography (CT) report for the systematic evaluation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), based on the opinions of clinicians and surgeons. Materials And Methods: This was a prospective study in which we applied a 21-item questionnaire to experts in pancreatic diseases in order to create a model of a structured abdominal CT report. The questionnaire addressed the location and size of PDACs, as well as their effects on adjacent structures and on the vasculature, together with metastases. We used a Likert scale to determine which of those parameters should be included in the model. Results: A total of 18 experts (12 surgeons and 6 clinicians) from 9 institutions completed the questionnaire. All of the experts agreed that the following (if present) should be described in the CT report on a PDAC: the degree of enhancement; the diameter and location of the lesion; pancreatic duct obstruction; biliary dilatation; pancreatic atrophy; liver metastases; peritoneal nodules; ascites; lymph node enlargement; and invasion of adjacent structures. More than 80% of the experts agreed that the report should also describe the relationship between the PDAC and the surrounding vasculature. Conclusion: We have developed a template for a CT report on patients with PDAC, based on the opinions of experts involved in the treatment of such patients. (author)

  20. Identifying deficiencies in national and foreign medical team responses through expert opinion surveys: implications for education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djalali, Ahmadreza; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Corte, Francesco Della; Foletti, Marco; Gallardo, Alba Ripoll; Ragazzoni, Luca; Kaptan, Kubilay; Lupescu, Olivera; Arculeo, Chris; von Arnim, Gotz; Friedl, Tom; Ashkenazi, Michael; Heselmann, Deike; Hreckovski, Boris; Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Khorrram-Manesh, Amir; Komadina, Radko; Lechner, Kostanze; Patru, Cristina; Burkle, Frederick M; Fisher, Philipp

    2014-08-01

    Unacceptable practices in the delivery of international medical assistance are reported after every major international disaster; this raises concerns about the clinical competence and practice of some foreign medical teams (FMTs). The aim of this study is to explore and analyze the opinions of disaster management experts about potential deficiencies in the art and science of national and FMTs during disasters and the impact these opinions might have on competency-based education and training. This qualitative study was performed in 2013. A questionnaire-based evaluation of experts' opinions and experiences in responding to disasters was conducted. The selection of the experts was done using the purposeful sampling method, and the sample size was considered by data saturation. Content analysis was used to explore the implications of the data. This study shows that there is a lack of competency-based training for disaster responders. Developing and performing standardized training courses is influenced by shortcomings in budget, expertise, and standards. There is a lack of both coordination and integration among teams and their activities during disasters. The participants of this study emphasized problems concerning access to relevant resources during disasters. The major findings of this study suggest that teams often are not competent during the response phase because of education and training deficiencies. Foreign medical teams and medically related nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) do not always provide expected capabilities and services. Failures in leadership and in coordination among teams are also a problem. All deficiencies need to be applied to competency-based curricula.

  1. Running retraining to treat lower limb injuries: a mixed-methods study of current evidence synthesised with expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, C J; Bonanno, D R; Carr, J; Neal, B S; Malliaras, P; Franklyn-Miller, A; Menz, H B

    2016-05-01

    Running-related injuries are highly prevalent. Synthesise published evidence with international expert opinion on the use of running retraining when treating lower limb injuries. Mixed methods. A systematic review of clinical and biomechanical findings related to running retraining interventions were synthesised and combined with semistructured interviews with 16 international experts covering clinical reasoning related to the implementation of running retraining. Limited evidence supports the effectiveness of transition from rearfoot to forefoot or midfoot strike and increase step rate or altering proximal mechanics in individuals with anterior exertional lower leg pain; and visual and verbal feedback to reduce hip adduction in females with patellofemoral pain. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence, experts recommended running retraining for: iliotibial band syndrome; plantar fasciopathy (fasciitis); Achilles, patellar, proximal hamstring and gluteal tendinopathy; calf pain; and medial tibial stress syndrome. Tailoring approaches to each injury and individual was recommended to optimise outcomes. Substantial evidence exists for the immediate biomechanical effects of running retraining interventions (46 studies), including evaluation of step rate and strike pattern manipulation, strategies to alter proximal kinematics and cues to reduce impact loading variables. Our synthesis of published evidence related to clinical outcomes and biomechanical effects with expert opinion indicates running retraining warrants consideration in the treatment of lower limb injuries in clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. Expert-Opinion Elicitation for the Risk Analysis of Design-Improvement Alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ayyub, Bilal M

    2002-01-01

    This report documents the expert-opinion elicitation performed to meet risk analysis needs of the lower lock approach sediment management improvement alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam...

  3. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  4. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches.

  5. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches

  6. [Adolescent arsonists--psychodynamics, family dynamics and attempt at framing a typology based on 40 expert opinions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klosinski, G; Bertsch, S L

    2001-02-01

    Psychiatric, psychological and medical data of 40 adolescent firesetters are obtained from a retrospective analysis of expert opinions which have been drawn up by the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Tübingen over a period of 16 years (1981-1997). This analysis mainly focusses on the patients' physical and psychosexual development, their social integration and competence and their family dynamics. It further concentrates on the psychic situation at the time of the offense, the reasons and motives given for firesetting (by the patient and by the expert) and specific psychological test results. According to the results three different characteristic groups can be found: 1st a group of offenders who have set fires to their parents' house, 2nd firesetters being member of the firebrigade, and 3rd an unspecific inhomogeneous group of firesetters.

  7. In search of an integral conceptual definition of frailty: opinions of experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobbens, Robbert J J; Luijkx, Katrien G; Wijnen-Sponselee, Maria Th; Schols, Jos M G A

    2010-06-01

    There are many different conceptual definitions of frailty in circulation. Most of these definitions focus mainly on physical problems affecting older people. Only a few also draw attention to other domains of human functioning such as the psychological domain. The authors of this article fear that this could lead to fragmentation of care for frail older people. The aim is to develop an integral conceptual definition of frailty that starts from the premise of a holistic view of the person. To achieve this, a literature search was carried out. Thereafter a group of experts (N=20) were consulted, both verbally during 2 expert meetings and via a written questionnaire. These experts were asked which existing conceptual definition of frailty places most stress on the integral functioning of older people. The experts expressed a clear preference for one of the conceptual definitions. The result of the literature search and the consultation with the experts led to a new integral conceptual definition of frailty. The conceptual definition is intended to offer a framework for an operational definition of frailty for identifying frail older people. Copyright 2010 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables

  9. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  10. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD.

  11. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

    2009-01-01

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  12. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-06-15

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

  13. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

    2009-06-15

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  14. Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

    2014-12-01

    Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

  15. Continental mapping of groundwater dependent ecosystems: A methodological framework to integrate diverse data and expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanya M. Doody

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights: It was identified that 34% of Australia’s landscape potentially contains GDEs of which 5% are classified with a high GDE potential. In addition, new continental scale insights into landscape processes where provided by the derivation and integration of remote sensing products using MODIS and Landsat. These products identify landscapes which are ‘wetter’ or ‘greener’ than surrounding areas, indicating these landscapes are accessing additional water, such as groundwater, supplementary to rainfall. The method reported also demonstrates the importance of expert knowledge, obtained through literature and expert elicitation, in order to provide a conceptual understanding of regional ecohydrological processes to develop rules of GDE dependency that would guide the extrapolation of known GDEs.

  16. The rehabilitation of children and adolescents with severe or medically complicated obesity: an ISPED expert opinion document.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grugni, Graziano; Licenziati, Maria Rosaria; Valerio, Giuliana; Crinò, Antonino; Maffeis, Claudio; Tanas, Rita; Morino, Giuseppe Stefano

    2017-03-01

    Severe/medically complicated obesity in childhood, and particularly in adolescence, is a real disability that requires an intensive and continuous approach which should follow the procedures and schedule of rehabilitation medicine. Given the lack of a specific document focusing on children and adolescents, the Childhood Obesity Study Group set out to explore the available evidence for the treatment of severe or medically complicated obesity and to set standards tailored to the specific context of the Italian Health Service. Through a series of meetings and electronic communications, the writing committee (selected from members of the Study Group) selected the key issues, explored the literature and produced a draft document which was submitted to the other experts until the final synthesis was approved by the group. In brief, the following issues were involved: (1) definition and epidemiology; (2) identification of common goals designed to regain functional competence and limit the progression of metabolic and psychological complications; (3) a multi-professional team approach; (4) the care setting. This paper is an expert opinion document on the rehabilitation of severe and medically complicated obesity in children and adolescents produced by experts belonging to the Childhood Obesity Study Group of the Italian Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology (ISPED).

  17. Veterinary Expert Opinion on Potential Drivers and Opportunities for Changing Antimicrobial Usage Practices in Livestock in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís P. Carmo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Reducing antimicrobial use (AMU in livestock is requested by Public Health authorities. Ideally, this should be achieved without jeopardizing production output or animal health and welfare. Thus, efficient measures must be identified and developed to target drivers of AMU. Veterinarians play a central role in the identification and implementation of such efficient interventions. Sixty-seven veterinarians with expertise in livestock production in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland participated in an expert opinion study aimed at investigating experiences and opinions of veterinarians about the driving forces and practices related to AMU in the main livestock sectors (broiler, dairy cattle, fattening/veal calf, and pig industry of the aforementioned countries. Opinions on potential factors influencing the choice of antimicrobials and opportunities to reduce AMU were collected. Antibiograms are seldom used, mainly due to the time lag between testing and obtaining the results. The perceived percentage of treatment failures varied between countries and livestock sectors; however, little changes were reported over time (2005−2015. The animal health problems of each livestock sector most frequently leading to AMU did not vary substantially between countries. Mandatory official interventions (i.e., binding measures applied by national or international authorities were highlighted as having the biggest impact on AMU. There was a variation in the experts’ opinion regarding feasibility and impact of interventions both between countries and livestock sectors. Nevertheless, improved biosecurity and education of veterinarians frequently received high scores. Most veterinarians believed that AMU can be reduced. The median potential reduction estimates varied from 1% in Swiss broilers to 50% in Portuguese broilers and veal/fattening calves in all countries. We hypothesize that the differences in views could be related to disease epidemiology, animal

  18. Proof of causation through expert opinion evidence in low-level radiation cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heideck, R.E.

    1985-01-01

    Tort law requires that the injured person prove that the injury was caused by a particular exposure to radiation for which the defendant is responsible. Heideck shows how expert evidence helps the court or jury resolve this question. The author analyzes a recent effort to bridge the gap between the legal requirement of proof of causation in individual cases and the conclusions that derive from group statistics. Some scientists argue that this approach is more technically sound than traditional tort law because it attempts to develop a probability of causation in individual cases

  19. Monitoring and control of microbioreactors: An expert opinion on development needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Baganz, Frank; Franco-Lara, Ezequiel

    2012-01-01

    This perspective article is based on an expert panel review on microbioreactor applications in biochemical and biomedical engineering that was organized by the M3C (measurement, monitoring, modelling and control) Working Group of the European Section of Biochemical Engineering Science (ESBES......) in the European Federation of Biotechnology (EFB). The aim of the panel was to provide an updated view on the present status of the subject and to identify critical needs and issues for furthering the successful development of microbioreactor monitoring and control. This will benefit future bioprocess development...

  20. Mental illness and legal fitness (competence) to stand trial in New York State: expert opinion and criminal defendants' psychiatric symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eugene; Rosner, Richard; Harmon, Ronnie

    2014-07-01

    Fitness to Stand Trial is a critical concept in the adjudication of justice-involved persons. A retrospective study was conducted to examine criminal defendants' specific psychiatric symptoms and those symptoms' associations with expert opinions on Competence to Stand Trial. One hundred charts were reviewed: 50 Cases (opined as Not Fit) were compared against 50 Controls (opined as Fit) with respect to ratings on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). A significance level of 0.001 was selected a priori. Statistically significant differences were found in seven of the eighteen BPRS symptom constructs (with the highest differences in Conceptual Disorganization and Unusual Thought Content) and two of the four BPRS higher-order syndrome factors (Thinking Disorder and Hostile-Suspiciousness). Consistent with previous reports, psychotic symptoms are found in this study to be inversely associated with Fitness. Validity, reliability, and limitations of this study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed herein. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  1. Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: thiagoreis@usp.b, E-mail: barroso@ipen.b, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

  2. Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

  3. Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Rohde

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a “new” potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the “Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research” conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26–29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application.

  4. Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    by aggregating 25 primarily animal-based measurements based on 38 experts opinion on inter-measurement and inter-stage weights. AWIs were calculated on animal level as the weighted sums of prevalence of the measurements, and were calculated for each of the six stages: pick-up pen, loading, transport, unloading......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage......, this work has suggested a potential model for the aggregation of animal welfare measurements into animal welfare indexes for slaughter pigs on the day of slaughter. Further validation may allow simple comparison of the level of welfare between lorries, days, abattoirs etc. and may be used for future...

  5. Essential elements of an early intervention service for psychosis: the opinions of expert clinicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lewis Shôn

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early intervention teams attempt to improve outcome in schizophrenia through earlier detection and the provision of phase-specific treatments. Whilst the number of early intervention teams is growing, there is a lack of clarity over their essential structural and functional elements. Methods A 'Delphi' exercise was carried out to identify how far there was consensus on the essential elements of early intervention teams in a group of 21 UK expert clinicians. Using published guidelines, an initial list was constructed containing 151 elements from ten categories of team structure and function. Results Overall there was expert consensus on the importance of 136 (90% of these elements. Of the items on which there was consensus, 106 (70.2% were rated essential, meaning that in their absence the functioning of the team would be severely impaired. Conclusion This degree of consensus over essential elements suggests that it is reasonable to define a model for UK early intervention teams, from which a measure of fidelity could be derived.

  6. CLINICAL PATHWAYS IN 17 EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES: A SURVEY OF EXPERT OPINIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Hindle

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Background. The main focus of the survey is on the extent to which clinical pathways are being used, and whether it might provide a basis for improved service planning and consequently strategic asset planning in health care.Methods. In the first stage, our aim was to make contact with one agency in each country (the primary agency below that would be able to provide contacts within that country with a mix of experts from each of the following types of agencies: Health sector government regulator, Health care purchasing (insurance agencies, Senior clinical managers in hospitals, Senior clinical managers in non-hospital care provider agencies (eg, home care, or primary medical care, Health professional societies (preferably medical and nursing, Accreditation or audit agencies, Consumer associations and Public or private agencies concerned with health facilities development. Definitions of these agencies and other terms were attached to the questionnaire itself. We would then ask the primary agency to choose the experts that were most likely to be aware of clinical pathway use. The persons thus contacted would then be asked to complete the questionnaire and send it back to the researchers. The aim was not to attempt to establish a random sample, but rather to target well-informed people.Results. 51 completed questionnaires were provided by largely self-selected experts from 17 EU countries. Respondents reported that pathways are important and becoming increasingly widely used (although the rate of progress is highly variable, the main constraints to their use are a cultural aversion among doctors and little encouragement from external parties, and there is growing recognition that multi-setting pathways have the greatest potential value.Conclusions. More needs to be done to achieve a common understanding of the ideas of pathways, strategic asset planning, and the interrelationships. Systems problems need systems solutions. In the case of clinical

  7. An analytical study on indifference management in educational system of Iran: Reflection on expert's opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazli Elham

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study attempted to explore and analyse the indifference management trend in the Educational system of Iran. This objective was achieved through a qualitative approach and grounded theory. The population included all educational management professionals and experts who had at least two years of management experience. Twenty-four individuals were selected through purposive sampling based on theoretical data saturation. In order to collect research data, semi-structured interviews were adopted. Moreover, the results were evaluated through systematic analysis method based on open, core and selective coding. The findings suggested that the causal conditions affecting indifference management entail eight dimensions: job motivation, employee development, organisational culture, organisational climate, attitude and manager's performance, employee attitude, work environment and nature of work. Organisational culture, organisational climate and workplace conditions were the underlying factors of indifference management, while behaviour and performance of managers were mediating or confounding conditions, playing a dramatic role in indifference management.

  8. Expert Opinion to Identify High-Risk Entry Routes of Canine Rabies into Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookes, V J; Ward, M P

    2017-03-01

    The proximity of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to canine rabies-endemic countries in South-East Asia presents a risk of incursion of this disease into PNG and the rest of the Oceanic region. The objective of this study was to identify the highest risk routes for entry of dogs - associated with movement of people - into PNG from canine rabies-endemic countries. A structured, in-country expert-elicitation workshop was used, and 20 entry routes were identified. The highest risk routes were three land routes from Papua, Indonesia (hunters, traditional border crossers and unregulated, unchecked 'shopper-crossers') and two sea routes (fishing and logging). These results will be used to direct more detailed risk assessments to develop surveillance strategies and incursion response plans. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. Substitution of Assisted Living Services by Assistive Technology - Experts Opinions and Technical Feasibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartze, Jonas; Prekazi, Arianit; Schrom, Harald; Marschollek, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Ambient assisted living (AAL) may support ageing in place but is primarily driven by technology. The aim of this work is, to identifying reasons to move into assisted living institutions, their range of service and possible substitutability. We did semi-structured interviews with five experts from assisted living institutions and used results to design and implement assistive technologies in an AAL environment using BASIS, a cross domain bus system for smart buildings. Reasons for moving to assisted living institutions are expected benefits for chronic health problems, safety, social isolation and carefree living. We implemented six application systems for inactivity monitoring, stove shutdown, air quality monitoring, medication and appointment reminders, detection of unwanted situations before leaving and optical ringing of the doorbell. Substitution of selected assisted living services is feasible and has potential to delay necessity to move into assisted living institution if complement social services are installed.

  10. Spallation Neutron Source Availability Top-Down Apportionment Using Characteristic Factors and Expert Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Schryver, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    Apportionment is the assignment of top-level requirements to lower tier elements of the overall facility. A method for apportioning overall facility availability requirements among systems and subsystems is presented. Characteristics that influence equipment reliability and maintainability are discussed. Experts, using engineering judgment, scored each characteristic for each system whose availability design goal is to be established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to produce a set of weighted rankings for each characteristic for each alternative system. A mathematical model is derived which incorporates these weighting factors. The method imposes higher availability requirements on those systems in which an incremental increase in availability is easier to achieve, and lower availability requirements where greater availability is more difficult and costly. An example is given of applying this top-down apportionment methodology to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility

  11. Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  12. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blome, Christine

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

  13. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

  14. Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

  15. The Quality of Life of High-Skilled Employees in Hungary. The Experts' Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA LEOVARIDIS

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to provide an overview of the working conditions of high-skilled employees in Hungary, by resorting to comparisons with the other Central and Eastern European countries, based on research carried out by the author during a three-month placement (August 1st-October 31st 2011 at the Institute of Sociology of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. This work combines several sources and methods for gathering information: theoretical documentation, secondary analysis of data, in-depth interviews with some experts in the field. The study results indicate the presence, for the knowledge workers in Hungary, of some common problems of this category of employees in all former communist countries, such as number of working hours per week more than EU average, low rate of participation in training, problems health such as stress, depression, heart disease etc., employees' complaints related to overworking associated with low wages in the public sector and with rigid hierarchy, lack of work-life balance, standards imposed by the parent company etc. in some multinational firms; cases of good practice appear at the micro level, mainly in Scandinavian capital firms or in companies in the IT sector.

  16. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Dadgar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

  17. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses.

  18. Treatment of Liver Tumors with Lipiodol TACE: Technical Recommendations from Experts Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baere, Thierry de, E-mail: thierry.debaere@gustaveroussy.fr [Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France); Arai, Yasuaki, E-mail: arai-y3111@mvh.biglobe.ne.jp [National Cancer Center, Department of Diagnostic Radiology (Japan); Lencioni, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.lencioni@med.unipi.it [Pisa University School of Medicine, Division of Diagnostic Imaging and Intervention (R.L.) (Italy); Geschwind, Jean-Francois, E-mail: jfg@jhmi.edu [The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Vascular and Interventional Radiology (United States); Rilling, William, E-mail: wrilling@mcw.edu [Medical College of Wisconsin, Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology Rm2803 (United States); Salem, Riad, E-mail: r-salem@northwestern.edu [Northwestern University, Department of Radiology (United States); Matsui, Osamu, E-mail: matsuio@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp [Kanazawa University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Department of Advanced Medical Imaging (Japan); Soulen, Michael C., E-mail: michael.soulen@uphs.upenn.edu [University of Pennsylvania, Division of Interventional Radiology (MCS) (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Transarterial chemoembolization with Lipiodol (Lipiodol TACE), also called conventional TACE, was developed in the early 1980s and widely adopted worldwide after randomized control trials and meta-analysis demonstrated superiority of Lipiodol TACE to best supportive care. Presently, there is no level one evidence that other TACE techniques are superior to Lipiodol TACE for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which includes patients with preserved liver function and nonsurgical large or multinodular HCC without distant metastases. In addition, TACE is part of the treatment for progressive or symptomatic liver metastases from gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. When injected into the hepatic artery, Lipiodol has the unique property of selective uptake and retention in hyperarterialyzed liver tumors. Lipiodol/drug emulsion followed by particle embolization has been demonstrated to improve the pharmacokinetic of the drug and tumor response. Radio opacity of Lipiodol helps to monitor treatment delivery, with retention of Lipiodol serving as an imaging biomarker for tumor response. For 30 years, Lipiodol TACE has been inconsistently referenced in many publications with various levels of details for the method of preparation and administration, with reported progressive outcomes following improvements in the technique and the devices used to deliver the treatment and better patient selection. Consequently, there is no consensus on the standard method of TACE regarding the use of anticancer agents, embolic material, technical details, and the treatment schedule. In order to develop an internationally validated technical recommendation to standardize the Lipiodol TACE procedure, a worldwide panel of experts participated in a consensus meeting held on May 10, 2014.

  19. MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Funk

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

  20. Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2017-09-01

    The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  2. Right of residence under Article 20 TFEU of the Primary Carer of a Minor Union Citizen: Summary of an expert opinion on issues arising from the pending case of Chavez-Vilchez and others (C-133/15)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dziedzic, Lukasz; Davies, Gareth; De Lange, Janneke; Biersteker, Anouk; Navia-Rodriguez, Lorena

    2015-01-01

    This is an English language summary of an extensive Dutch expert opinion concerning a pending ECJ case of wide relevance - a follow up to Ruiz Zambrano and Dereci which explores some of the more complex and realistic scenarios which may arise. That expert opinion provides a legal analysis of the

  3. Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

    2008-01-01

    The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

  4. [A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlenbrock, Judith; Hinrichs, Jens; Heuft, Gereon

    2017-09-01

    A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years Objectives: Both the public and the legislative have developed an increasingly critical awareness for the fact that expert witnesses need to be independent. In contrast, to date there have been few studies concerning the quantity and the results of psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic expert opinions for public and private clients. In a retrospective study design, 285 expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital stemming from consecutive, unselected random sampling over a 12-year time period (1990-2011) were analyzed using a predefined list of criteria. Besides client data, the study also noted the type and the objectives of the expertise, the sociodemographic data of the subjects, the biographic data of the subjects, the size of records, the particular psychopathological findings including conflict and structural diagnostics via the Operationalized Psychodynamic Diagnostics (OPD-2, Research Group 2006), syndromic diagnostics according to ICD-10 (WHO) including the related Impairment Scale Score (ISS, Schepank 1995), and the Global Assessment of Functioning-Scale (GAF, Heuft 2016). 54% of the subjects were men. All subjects were 46 years old at the time of examination; on average symptomatology had existed for 7 years, which made assessment of causality difficult. Most assignments referred to the effects of diseases or accidents in private contexts, followed by pension reports. Among the expert opinions related to possible implications of acts of violence, 95% were women. In 43.2% (n = 123) of the cases, the assessment had occurred in the context of legal action. In 65 cases at least one party had requested a supplemental written report during further procedure. In 17.8% (n = 22) of the cases sought by the courts, the expert witness was requested by at least one party to present the

  5. Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

    2015-01-01

    Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

  6. Dramatically Polarized Opinion on the Role of Brachytherapy Boost in Management of High-risk Prostate Cancer: A Survey of North American Genitourinary Expert Radiation Oncologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

    2018-06-01

    Three randomized clinical trials have established brachytherapy (BT) boost in combination with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) as superior to definitive EBRT and ADT alone in terms of biochemical control (but not overall survival) at the expense of increased toxicity in men with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa). The current view regarding these 2 treatment algorithms among North American genitourinary (GU) experts is not known. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to opinions regarding BT as monotherapy for low-risk PCa and BT boost for HR PCa. Responders were asked to self-identify as BT experts versus non-experts. Treatment recommendations were correlated with practice patterns using the Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey, of whom 23 (55%) recommend EBRT and ADT alone and 19 (45%) recommend addition of BT boost. Twenty-five participants (60%) identified themselves as BT experts. Nearly 90% of those recommending BT boost were BT experts versus approximately 10% of non-BT experts (P < .001). Responders who recommended BT monotherapy as first-choice treatment for low-risk PCa were more likely to recommend BT boost for HR PCa (P < .0001). There is a dramatic polarization in opinions regarding incorporation of BT boost into EBRT + ADT therapy for patients with HR PCa among North American GU radiation oncology experts, who serve on decision-making committees and influence the national treatment guidelines and future clinical trials. Those who identify themselves as BT experts are significantly more likely to recommend BT boost. These findings are likely to influence the national guidelines and implementation of BT boost in current and future North American PCa clinical studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Problems arising in connection with the commissioning of experts in conflict-oriented implementation of nuclear law. The legal status of expert opinions in administrative procedures under the Atomic Energy Act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiebig, T.H.

    1995-01-01

    Court decisions available so far do not primarily consider the problems linked to the commissioning of an expert and his mandate, as well as the legal status of the commissioning of an expert as an administrative act which might be legally contestable. Thus there are at present no court decisions that would create legal certainty in matters of the act of commissioning a nuclear expert opinion. The current legal situation is such that an independent order for commissioning of an expert opinion in compliance with section 19 III AtG (Atomic Energy Act), which in general is given in response to the refusal of the facility operator to do so, can be independently contested on the basis of section 44 a, sentence 2 VwGO (Rules of Administrative Courts). The current practice of conflict-oriented, or nuclear power phase-out-oriented, implementation of the nuclear law poses a threat to our constitutional state and to our democracy. The supply of energy as a common good is of essential importance and thus deserves fair and objective treatment free of emotions, including the matter of nuclear energy. In cases of nuclear licensing procedures meeting with impedimental treatment by a Land government favouring the nuclear power phase-out, this treatment however not fitting into the Land governments' overall political line, there is reason to call upon the Federal Government to take action for clarifying the situation. (orig./HP) [de

  9. Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

  10. Medico-legal and legal-penal aspects of expert opinions and adjudication in cases of intoxications with intoxicating agents and ethanol-like intoxicants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Ćwiklińska

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The available legal regulations in Poland do not define the concentration thresholds enabling to differentiate between the states of “after-use” versus “under the influence” of a drug, as it is in the case of alcohol. The aim of the study was to analyse jurisdiction in cases regarding the evaluation of the effects of intoxicating agents and ethanol-like intoxicants and to identify ambiguities and gaps in the applicable regulations leading to problems in preparing expert opinions. Material and methods: The material included the opinions of experts in the field of toxicology and forensic medicine made by the Department of Forensic Medicine in Lublin in the years 2009–2011 and records obtained in the process of inquiry from the regional prosecutor’s offices and courts in 52 cases. Results : Amongst 52 cases in which the ordered toxicology examinations demonstrated the presence of intoxicating agents in drivers’ blood (tetrahydrocannabinols in 39 and amphetamine in 21 cases in 2 cases petty offence proceedings were instituted (Art. 87 of the Petty Offence Code although high concentrations of xenobiotics indicated the state of being “under the influence” of a narcotic drug (Art. 178a of the Penal Code. Three cases were discontinued despite expert opinions that the drivers were at least in the after-narcotic use state. In only 3 cases were witnesses asked to provide testimony about the circumstances of the driver’s conduct. Conclusions : The analysis has demonstrated that judicial bodies expect forensic expertise based exclusively on toxicological examination results; when expert findings are inconclusive, they only administer litigations opportunistically applying the principle of the presumption of innocence understood literally. Considering the above, threshold values of “use” and “influence” of the most commonly detected drugs should be urgently determined.

  11. Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire D Stevenson-Holt

    Full Text Available Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

  12. Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson-Holt, Claire D; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C; Nevin, Owen T; Ramsey, Andrew D

    2014-01-01

    Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

  13. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Kuster

    Full Text Available Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively. Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest to 5 (highest. Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT, Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR. Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF, Enzootic Pneumonia (EP, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS, as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers

  14. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  15. Strategies for the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents : Expert opinions from a Delphi study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogel, I.; Brug, J.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Raat, H.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. To identify parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents and potentially effective prevention strategies and interventions. METHODS. Thirty experts in fields such as scientific research, medical practice, community health professions, education, youth

  16. Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

  17. Comparison of expert and nonexpert swimmers' opinions about the value, potency, and activity of four standard swimming strokes and underwater undulatory swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collard, L; Oboeuf, A

    2009-04-01

    Underwater undulatory swimming (UUS) is often perceived to be a nonessential aspect of aquatic propulsion. Given their solid theoretical and practical training in swimming, physical education students should be capable of judging the true value of the "fifth stroke," since it appears to be the most efficient technique in high level, competitive swimming. To compare opinions and connotations associated with the stroke and the four official strokes (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, and crawl), 198 students (32 of whom were expert swimmers; M age = 20.6 yr., SD = 1.2), were surveyed using the semantic differential of Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum. Although answers of expert and nonexpert swimmers differed significantly (p stroke was less attractive, less powerful, and less rapid than the four surface strokes (d = 2.88 for the expert swimmers). Putting one arm in front of the other and repeating the sequence still remains the most solidly held representation of "the right way" to swim. However, the high observed standard deviations for the underwater undulatory stimulus (SD > or = 1.1 with SD max = 3 for the expert swimmers) attests to the view being less strongly held by swimming specialists.

  18. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts

  19. Best practice strategies to safeguard drug prescribing and drug administration: an anthology of expert views and opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidling, Hanna M; Stützle, Marion; Hoppe-Tichy, Torsten; Allenet, Benoît; Bedouch, Pierrick; Bonnabry, Pascal; Coleman, Jamie J; Fernandez-Llimos, Fernando; Lovis, Christian; Rei, Maria Jose; Störzinger, Dominic; Taylor, Lenka A; Pontefract, Sarah K; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; van der Sijs, Heleen; Haefeli, Walter E

    2016-04-01

    While evidence on implementation of medication safety strategies is increasing, reasons for selecting and relinquishing distinct strategies and details on implementation are typically not shared in published literature. We aimed to collect and structure expert information resulting from implementing medication safety strategies to provide advice for decision-makers. Medication safety experts with clinical expertise from thirteen hospitals throughout twelve European and North American countries shared their experience in workshop meetings, on-site-visits and remote structured interviews. We performed an expert-based, in-depth assessment of implementation of best-practice strategies to improve drug prescribing and drug administration. Workflow, variability and recommended medication safety strategies in drug prescribing and drug administration processes. According to the experts, institutions chose strategies that targeted process steps known to be particularly error-prone in the respective setting. Often, the selection was channeled by local constraints such as the e-health equipment and critically modulated by national context factors. In our study, the experts favored electronic prescribing with clinical decision support and medication reconciliation as most promising interventions. They agreed that self-assessment and introduction of medication safety boards were crucial to satisfy the setting-specific differences and foster successful implementation. While general evidence for implementation of strategies to improve medication safety exists, successful selection and adaptation of a distinct strategy requires a thorough knowledge of the institute-specific constraints and an ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the implemented measures.

  20. Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

    2017-05-06

    This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70-80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70-80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the 'already dispensed here' pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an 'action taken' documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  1. Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

    2014-04-01

    The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Effects of CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings 2008. Expert opinion; Effekte des CO{sub 2}-Gebaeudesanierungsprogramms 2008. Gutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausnitzer, Klaus-Dieter; Gabriel, Juergen; Eilmes, Sabine [Bremer Energie-Institut, Bremen (Germany); Diefenbach, Nikolaus; Loga, Tobias [Institut Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Wosniok, Werner [Bremen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Statistik

    2008-07-01

    The climate protection, the securing of the power supply as well as the enabling of payable energy costs belong to the central tasks to the policy. In the year 2006, the working group consisting of the Bremen Energie Institute (Bremen, Federal Republic of Energy), Institute Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH (Darmstadt, Federal Republic of Germany) and the Institute for Statistics of the University of Bremen (Bremen, Federal Republic of Germany) was ordered to develop a model for the estimation of the positive effects of the CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings according to the reduction of CO{sub 2}, conservation of final energy, employment, progress in modernization and saving of heating cost. In the expert opinion under consideration, the influences are stated for the case of loan and grant for the year 2008.

  3. Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

    2016-11-01

    Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Strategies for the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents: expert opinions from a Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ineke; Brug, Johannes; van der Ploeg, Catharina P B; Raat, Hein

    2009-05-01

    To identify parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents and potentially effective prevention strategies and interventions. Thirty experts in fields such as scientific research, medical practice, community health professions, education, youth work, music entertainment, and enforcement authorities participated in a qualitative, electronic, 3-round, Web-based Delphi study. Multiple parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents were identified; the most relevant are the adolescents themselves, their parents, manufacturers of MP3 players and earphones, and the authorities. The experts did not expect that adolescents in general would perform the necessary protective behaviors to prevent MP3-induced hearing loss. Two environmental health protection measures were identified as both relevant and feasible to be implemented (ie, authorities encourage manufacturers to produce safer products, and public health campaigns will be held to improve knowledge of the risks of high-volume music, possible protective measures, and consequences of hearing loss). Authorities, the music industry in general, and especially manufacturers of MP3 players and earphones should recognize their responsibility and create a safer MP3-listening environment by taking measures to protect today's youth from the dangers of listening to high-volume music on MP3 players.

  5. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt: Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    The Columbia River Basalts Underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett flow interior. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. 210 refs., 12 figs., 5 tabs

  6. Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

    2015-01-01

    Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction.

  7. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  9. Updated clinical indications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe aortic stenosis: expert opinion of the Italian Society of Cardiology and GISE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indolfi, Ciro; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Berti, Sergio; Golino, Paolo; Esposito, Giovanni; Musumeci, Giuseppe; Petronio, Sonia; Tamburino, Corrado; Tarantini, Giuseppe; Ussia, Gianpaolo; Vassanelli, Corrado; Spaccarotella, Carmen; Violini, Roberto; Mercuro, Giuseppe; Romeo, Francesco

    2018-05-01

    : The introduction of percutaneous treatment of severe aortic stenosis with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains one of the greatest achievements of interventional cardiology. In fact, TAVI emerged as a better option than either medical therapy or balloon aortic valvuloplasty for patients who cannot undergo surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or are at high surgical risk. Recently, increased operator experience and improved device systems have led to a worldwide trend toward the extension of TAVI to low-risk or intermediate-risk patients. In this expert opinion paper, we first discuss the basic pathophysiology of aortic stenosis in different settings then the key results of recent clinical investigations on TAVI in intermediate-risk aortic stenosis patients are summarized. Particular emphasis is placed on the results of the nordic aortic valve intervention, placement of aortic transcatheter valves (PARTNER) 2 and Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Randomized trials. The PARTNER 2 was the first large randomized trial that evaluated the outcome of TAVI in patients at intermediate risk. The PARTNER 2 data demonstrated that TAVI is a feasible and reasonable alternative to surgery in intermediate-risk patients (Society of Thoracic Surgeons 4-8%), especially if they are elderly or frail. There was a significant interaction between TAVI approach and mortality, with transfemoral TAVI showing superiority over SAVR. Moreover, we examine the complementary results of the recently concluded Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation trial. This prospective randomized trial demonstrated that TAVI is comparable with surgery (primary end point 12.6% in the TAVI group vs. 14.0% in the SAVR group) in severe aortic stenosis patients deemed to be at intermediate risk. We review the most relevant clinical evidence deriving from nonrandomized studies and meta-analyses. Altogether, clinical outcome available data

  10. Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

    2014-01-01

    Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

  11. Environmental problems: the expert opinions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The environmental problems constitute one of the questions the most complicated which sets up to modern societies. Indeed, their reasons are multiple and their consequences are not always known with certainty. Several scientific contributions are given in this book on the following fields: the stratospheric ozone, the oceans pollution, the industrial and municipal wastes, the urbanization, the transports, the civil nuclear, the greenhouse effect, the air pollution, the water pollution and the main industrial accidents. Only the five last points are detailed later on. (O.L.). refs., tabs

  12. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  13. Radioecological experts' opinions on waste water of Esensham nuclear power plant. Final report of a part of the project: Pollution at the place of work and in the Lower Weser industrialized region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bliefert, M.; Marks, R.; Meier, A.; Wallenschus, M.

    1978-01-01

    In December 1977, there was a public hearing by the Oldenburg administrative court where, among others, evidence was heard on whether the experts' opinions on the discharge of liquid radioactive waste into the river Weser, for which licence has already been granted, contain some major errors so that the licences already granted would have to be revoked. This part of the long and tedious administrative lawsuit is reported. (orig.) [de

  14. [Deontology of the medical expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raszeja, S

    1995-09-01

    The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

  15. Opinions and statements of the experts who studied the framework conditions of abandonment of nuclear power - presented by the commission set in by the OeTV Executive Board (Public Services and Transport Workers' Union)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-10-01

    The publication consists of two volumes and explains the position and opinions of the OeTV Executive Board concerning abandonment of nuclear power. The first volume presents the Executive Board's statement given in September 1987: Nuclear power should be abandoned, and it can be done; energy policy has to take a new line, concentrating on energy conservation, enhanced use of coal for electricity generation, enhanced use of renewable energy sources; stepwise shutdown of nuclear power stations. The first volume also presents the documents and experience forming the basis of the Union's position, namely the expert opinions on this issue, and an information visit to Sweden together with a report of Sweden's Minister of Industry on effects of the Chernobyl reactor accident. The development of the Union's point of view of energy policy since the year 1976. (HSCH) [de

  16. Opinions and statements of the experts who studied the framework conditions of abandonment of nuclear power - presented by the OeTV Executive Board (Public Services and Transport Workers' Union)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-10-01

    This second volume contains five annexes to the first volume, presenting in Annex 1 data, facts, tables and comments on the following topics: Electricity demand and supplies; possibilities of reducing electricity demand; alternative energy sources for electricity generation to replace the nuclear energy source; electricity imports; the costs arising from abandonment of nuclear power; environmental burdens and hazards of a power industry with or without nuclear energy. Annex 2 presents terms and definitions, and the remaining three annexes contain literature lists of the expert opinions. (HSCH) [de

  17. Recommendations for Risk Categorization and Prophylaxis of Invasive Fungal Diseases in Hematological Malignancies: A Critical Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion (TEO-4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Can Boğa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This is the last of a series of articles on invasive fungal infections prepared by opinion leaders in Turkey. The aim of these articles is to guide clinicians in managing invasive fungal diseases in hematological malignancies and stem cell transplantation based on the available best evidence in this field. The previous articles summarized the diagnosis and treatment of invasive fungal disease and this article aims to explain the risk categorization and guide the antifungal prophylaxis in invasive fungal disease.

  18. Preliminary statement concerning the expert opinion and other documents relating to the Wackersdorf fuel reprocessing plant, laid open between June 18 and July 15, 1985 by the Bavarian Ministry of State for Regional Development and Environmental Affairs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The conclusion drawn in the statement is that the expert opinions and documents available do not justify the granting of a first partial licence for the erection of the fuel reprocessing plant. Such a first partial licence would include the site approval, the outline design approval, and part-construction permits, in this case for instance for the fuel element receiving store. The site approval would be a premature decision according to this statement, as some decisive expert opinions (on meteorological, hydrological, and radioecological site conditions) are not yet completed. The documents available for evaluation of the design concept are said to have been insufficient in many regards, so that all the authors can state at the present time is that 'there may be technically feasible solutions by now'. This is judged to be an insufficient basis for an outline design approval in accordance with the Atomic Energy Act. The reasons brought forward against licensing the fuel element receiving store are similar. For lack of appropriate documents, the authors of the statement found themselves unable to assess the safety of a major component, the fuel element storage tank. (orig./HSCH) [de

  19. Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korber, Katharina; Becker, Christian

    2017-10-02

    Determining what constitutes "good practice" in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic) evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents' thought that determinants of a program's success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators' unfamiliarity with a program's contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive approach of evaluation targeting measures in children and adolescents.

  20. Socio-compatible energy policies. Experts' opinion on behalf of the Federal Government. Sozialvertraegliche Energiepolitik. Ein Gutachten fuer die Bundesregierung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O.; Albrecht, G.; Kotte, U.; Peters, H.P.; Stegelmann, H.U.

    1985-01-01

    The socio-compatibility project comprises three central analytical elements: 1) The arborescent value analysis: Eminent social groups (such as the trade-unions or the ecological institutes) were questioned on their values and criteria applied to evaluate different energy systems. 2) The energy system and scenario impact analysis: Indicators deduced from the arborescent value analysis serve to approximately cover the value dimensions affected by above criteria. 3) Impact analysis weighing executed by a group of arbitrarily chosen citizens. All reflections considered, it is evident that none of the energy policies discussed may claim the title 'socio-compatible'. The individual, i.e. neither scientist nor politician, cannot decide upon the socio-compatibility of one or the other concept. An altogether socially compatible solution accepted and classified as such by different social groups may only crystallize and be set against different options by the political formation of opinion. The studys' primary concern lies in furnishing information, i.e. aids for politicians having to decide on energy policies. Above all the study aimed at finding out about reactions, social protest, opposition or approval to be coped with by those who, having the say in political matters, want to speak up for one of the energy policies under public discussion. (orig./HSCH).

  1. Regulatory acceptance and use of 3R models for pharmaceuticals and chemicals: expert opinions on the state of affairs and the way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffelers, Marie-Jeanne W A; Blaauboer, Bas J; Bakker, Wieger E; Beken, Sonja; Hendriksen, Coenraad F M; Koëter, Herman B W M; Krul, Cyrille

    2014-06-01

    Pharmaceuticals and chemicals are subjected to regulatory safety testing accounting for approximately 25% of laboratory animal use in Europe. This testing meets various objections and has led to the development of a range of 3R models to Replace, Reduce or Refine the animal models. However, these models must overcome many barriers before being accepted for regulatory risk management purposes. This paper describes the barriers and drivers and options to optimize this acceptance process as identified by two expert panels, one on pharmaceuticals and one on chemicals. To untangle the complex acceptance process, the multilevel perspective on technology transitions is applied. This perspective defines influences at the micro-, meso- and macro level which need alignment to induce regulatory acceptance of a 3R model. This paper displays that there are many similar mechanisms within both sectors that prevent 3R models from becoming accepted for regulatory risk assessment and management. Shared barriers include the uncertainty about the value of the new 3R models (micro level), the lack of harmonization of regulatory requirements and acceptance criteria (meso level) and the high levels of risk aversion (macro level). In optimizing the process commitment, communication, cooperation and coordination are identified as critical drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Expert opinion regarding the preparation of entry-level physiotherapists for primary healthcare practice, examined using Biggs 3P's model of teaching learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Sinead; O'Donoghue, Grainne; Doody, Catherine; O'Neill, Geraldine; Cusack, Tara

    2016-05-01

    The scope of contemporary physiotherapy practice is a critical factor in determining the appropriate educational preparation for physiotherapists now and into the future. The world-wide shift from secondary to primary healthcare has, and is, continuing to result in new and different ways of working. It is crucial that curricular changes reflect these developments. In this study a qualitative approach using Biggs 3P's - Pressage, Process and Product model to discuss curriculum design. The aim of the study was to explore the perspectives of both national and international physiotherapy educators/practitioners in primary healthcare, on the key elements required in physiotherapy education programmes to prepare future primary healthcare practitioners. Snowball sampling was used to identify experts in education and/or primary healthcare practice. Semi-structured interviews were conducted using an interview guide based on the Biggs 3P's model. Twelve participants were recruited from Ireland (n = 2), the UK (n = 4), Canada (n = 3), New Zealand (n = 2) and Australia (n = 1) using snowball sampling. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. Themes identified included; understanding the philosophy of physiotherapy practice, cultural competence, inter-disciplinary team working and communication skills. Contextual factors and teaching and learning strategies were discussed. There is an urgent need for physiotherapy education programmes to adopt the concept of primary healthcare as the basis for the physiotherapy curriculum and illuminate key components for consideration.

  3. Survey of expert opinions and related recommendations regarding bridging therapy using hypomethylating agents followed by allogeneic transplantation for high-risk MDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Sang Kyun; Moon, Joon Ho

    2015-08-01

    According to current guidelines on therapeutic strategies for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), cytoreductive therapies before allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) are not widely recommended for patients with high-risk MDS or refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB) who are eligible for allogeneic SCT because of controversial evidence on the role of such therapies. Yet, while treatment with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) has a critical limitation in eradicating MDS clones, the use of HMA treatment as a bridge to allogeneic SCT has become a focus with the hope of improving the SCT outcome based on the chance of achieving complete remission or reducing the blast percentage safely and effectively before allogeneic SCT. However, a consensus needs to be established on the use of HMAs as a bridging therapy for high-risk MDS or RAEB. Thus, the Korean AML/MDS working party group surveyed 34 Korean MDS experts on their bridging therapies for high-risk MDS. Accordingly, this paper presents the survey questionnaire and resulting data, along with a summary of the consensus and related recommendations regarding strategies using HMA treatment and allogeneic SCT based on reported studies and the current survey results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Referees', coaches', and experts' opinions on the utilisation of the rules in the teaching-learning process of mini-basketball

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celestina Vizca\\u00EDno

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Las reglas condicionan los medios técnico-tácticos ya que establecen los límites de acción de los jugadores, en su relación con el balón y con el resto de jugadores. Sin embargo, existen muy pocas referencias que aborden esta temática. Así, se planteó conocer las opiniones de expertos, árbitros y entrenadores en torno a la utilización de las reglas en la etapa de minibasket. La muestra estuvo formada por 9 entrevistados: tres entrenadores, tres árbitros y tres expertos. Todos con titulación federativa y universitaria y con experiencia suficiente en la categoría de minibasket. El instrumento utilizado fue la entrevista semi-estructurada. Para su diseño se siguió el método Delphi en el que participaron 5 profesores universitarios que fueron seleccionando las dimensiones y preguntas a realizar. Tras la redacción definitiva y el pilotaje, se contactó con los diferentes profesionales de la muestra y se les entrevistó grabando y transcribiendo el contenido. La codificación se llevó a cabo por cuatro investigadores, garantizando la fiabilidad mediante el índice Kappa, obteniendo un promedio de K = .78. El análisis se llevó a cabo usando el MXQDA 10 y el SPSS 20. Los entrevistados manifiestan la importancia de enseñar las reglas a los jugadores que se inician en el baloncesto debido a que este aprendizaje les permite entender la lógica interna del juego. Asimismo, se expone la necesidad de que exista esta relación en el proceso de aprendizaje e incluso se abre la posibilidad de programar a partir de las reglas, puesto que son las que dan sentido al juego y a los medios técnico-tácticos.

  5. Quantification of informed opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The objective of this session, Quantification of Informed Opinion, is to provide the statistician with a better understanding of this important area. The NRC uses informed opinion, sometimes called engineering judgment or subjective judgment, in many areas. Sometimes informed opinion is the only source of information that exists, especially in phenomenological areas, such as steam explosions, where experiments are costly and phenomena are very difficult to measure. There are many degrees of informed opinion. These vary from the weatherman who makes predictions concerning relatively high probability events with a large data base to the phenomenological expert who must use his intuition tempered with basic knowledge and little or no measured data to predict the behavior of events with a low probability of occurrence. The first paper in this session provides the reader with an overview of the subject area. The second paper provides some aspects that must be considered in the collection of informed opinion to improve the quality of the information. The final paper contains an example of the use of informed opinion in the area of seismic hazard characterization. These papers should be useful to researchers and statisticians who need to collect and use informed opinion in their work

  6. Research priority setting for integrated early child development and violence prevention (ECD+) in low and middle income countries: An expert opinion exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Mark; Jordans, Mark; MacMillan, Harriet; Betancourt, Theresa; Hunt, Xanthe; Mikton, Christopher

    2017-10-01

    Child development in low and middle income countries (LMIC) is compromised by multiple risk factors. Reducing children's exposure to harmful events is essential for early childhood development (ECD). In particular, preventing violence against children - a highly prevalent risk factor that negatively affects optimal child development - should be an intervention priority. We used the Child Health and Nutrition Initiative (CHNRI) method for the setting of research priorities in integrated Early Childhood Development and violence prevention programs (ECD+). An expert group was identified and invited to systematically list and score research questions. A total of 186 stakeholders were asked to contribute five research questions each, and contributions were received from 81 respondents. These were subsequently evaluated using a set of five criteria: answerability; effectiveness; feasibility and/or affordability; applicability and impact; and equity. Of the 400 questions generated, a composite group of 50 were scored by 55 respondents. The highest scoring research questions related to the training of Community Health Workers (CHW's) to deliver ECD+ interventions effectively and whether ECD+ interventions could be integrated within existing delivery platforms such as HIV, nutrition or mental health platforms. The priority research questions can direct new research initiatives, mainly in focusing on the effectiveness of an ECD+ approach, as well as on service delivery questions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic exercise of its kind in the field of ECD+. The findings from this research priority setting exercise can help guide donors and other development actors towards funding priorities for important future research related to ECD and violence prevention. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. How Much Do We Know about Drug Resistance Due to PrEP Use? Analysis of Experts' Opinion and Its Influence on the Projected Public Health Impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobromir T Dimitrov

    Full Text Available Randomized controlled trials reported that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP with tenofovir and emtricitabine rarely selects for drug resistance. However, drug resistance due to PrEP is not completely understood. In daily practice, PrEP will not be used under the well-controlled conditions available in the trials, suggesting that widespread use of PrEP can result in increased drug resistance.We surveyed expert virologists with questions about biological assumptions regarding drug resistance due to PrEP use. The influence of these assumptions on the prevalence of drug resistance and the fraction of HIV transmitted resistance was studied with a mathematical model. For comparability, 50% PrEP-coverage of and 90% per-act efficacy of PrEP in preventing HIV acquisition are assumed in all simulations.Virologists disagreed on the following: the time until resistance emergence (range: 20-180 days in infected PrEP users with breakthrough HIV infections; the efficacy of PrEP against drug-resistant HIV (25%-90%; and the likelihood of resistance acquisition upon transmission (10%-75%. These differences translate into projections of 0.6%- 1% and 3.5%-6% infected individuals with detectable resistance 10 years after introducing PrEP, assuming 100% and 50% adherence, respectively. The rate of resistance emergence following breakthrough HIV infection and the rate of resistance reversion after PrEP use is discontinued, were the factors identified as most influential on the expected resistance associated with PrEP. Importantly, 17-23% infected individuals could virologically fail treatment as a result of past PrEP use or transmitted resistance to PrEP with moderate adherence.There is no broad consensus on quantification of key biological processes that underpin the emergence of PrEP-associated drug resistance. Despite this, the contribution of PrEP use to the prevalence of the detectable drug resistance is expected to be small. However, individuals who become

  8. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  9. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  10. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  11. An expert system for uranium exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

    1989-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

  12. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  13. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  14. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  15. A Follow-Up Web-Based Survey: Test and Measurement Expert Opinions on the Psychometric Properties of Out-of-Level Tests. Out-of-Level Testing Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielinski, John; Minnema, Jane; Thurlow, Martha

    A Web-based survey of 25 experts in testing theory and large-scale assessment examined the utility of out-of-level testing for making decisions about students and schools. Survey respondents were given a series of scenarios and asked to judge the degree to which out-of-level testing would affect the reliability and validity of test scores within…

  16. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  17. Perception of risks by opinion leaders 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The authors report a survey made just after the Fukushima accident on a panel of opinion leaders (belonging to political, economical or media sector) in order to compare their perception of risks with that of the public. The questions addressed the perception of risks, the role of scientific experts, the usefulness and breaks on the diffusion of expertise results, the perception of pluralist bodies, and the Fukushima accident. The answers are analysed and discussed with respect to fifteen hazardous situations, to their opinion of expertise, and to their opinion on safety audit and information

  18. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  19. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness' testimony...

  20. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  1. Opinion Integration and Summarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yue

    2011-01-01

    As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

  2. Opinion and Persuasion

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan Constantin Dima; Daniela Gîfu

    2014-01-01

    The research proves that persuasion has two types of objectives. Its main objective is the change of opinion. Its fundamental and foundational objectives are the change in attitude, generic conduct and situational behaviour. The main objective controls the fundamental objectives. The change in attitudes and conduct/behaviour is presided by changes in opinion. Persuasion is thus shown to be primarily and ultimately a matter of opinion. As such, its mechanism to manage and generate ...

  3. Cooperation of experts' opinion, experiment and computer code development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfert, K.; Hicken, E.

    The connection between code development, code assessment and confidence in the analysis of transients will be discussed. In this manner, the major sources of errors in the codes and errors in applications of the codes will be shown. Standard problem results emphasize that, in order to have confidence in licensing statements, the codes must be physically realistic and the code user must be qualified and experienced. We will discuss why there is disagreement between the licensing authority and vendor concerning assessment of the fullfillment of safety goal requirements. The answer to the question lies in the different confidence levels of the assessment of transient analysis. It is expected that a decrease in the disagreement will result from an increased confidence level. Strong efforts will be made to increase this confidence level through improvements in the codes, experiments and related organizational strcutures. Because of the low probability for loss-of-coolant-accidents in the nuclear industry, assessment must rely on analytical techniques and experimental investigations. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Creative industries, creative class and competitiveness: expert opinions critically appraised

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bontje, M.A.; Musterd, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the debate on urban and regional competitiveness, it has become fashionable to stress the growing importance of creativity for economic development. Especially scientist-consultants with a keen eye for what politicians and business people want to hear have taken centre stage in this discussion.

  5. [How to render an expert opinion on dysphonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawka, T; Rosanowski, F; Gross, M

    2014-09-01

    In Germany, parameters for medicolegal evaluation of dysphonia have to be revised against the background of communication disorders getting more important in a modern communication society. In this work, up-to-date diagnostic tools are reviewed and evaluated for medicolegal purposes. Parametrization is -performed according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health ICF. Following this schema, -dysphonia is graded as follows: 1) No dysphonia (no problem, percentile 0-4) impairment of the whole person 0%, 2) Slight, strain-induced dysphonia (slight problem, percentile 5-24) -impairment of the whole person 0-10%, 3) Moderate dysphonia (moderate problem, percentile 25-49) impairment of the whole person 20-30%, 4) Severe dysphonia (severe problem, percentile 50-95) impairment of the whole person 40-50%, 5) Complete loss of voice (extreme problem, percentile 96-100%) impairment of the whole person 50%. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  6. Expert opinion on nanotechnology: risks, benefits, and regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Besley, John C., E-mail: jbesley@sc.edu; Kramer, Victoria L. [University of South Carolina, School of Journalism and Mass Communications (United States); Priest, Susanna H. [University of Nevada, Hank Greenspun School of Journalism and Media Studies (United States)

    2008-04-15

    A survey of American (US) nanotechnology researchers (N = 177) suggests a diversity of views about what areas are most important to the burgeoning field, as well as perceptions about the overall benefits and risks of such research. On average, respondents saw a range of technologies as key and viewed public health and environmental issues as areas where both risks and the need for regulation are greatest. These areas were also where respondents said current regulations were least adequate. Factor analyses of the survey questions suggest that, when considering both risks and regulations, respondents make a distinction between health and environmental risks, and what might be termed 'social risks' (e.g., invasion of privacy, use of nanotechnology in weapons, and economic impacts)

  7. Faulty judgment, expert opinion, and decision-making capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberfeld, M; Checkland, D

    1999-08-01

    An assessment of decision-making capacity is the accepted procedure for determining when a person is not competent. An inferential gap exists between the criteria for capacity specific abilities and the legal requirements to understand relevant information and appreciate the consequences of a decision. This gap extends to causal influences on a person's capacity to decide. Using a published case of depression, we illustrate that assessors' uses of diagnostic information is frequently not up to the task of bridging this inferential gap in a justifiable way. We then describe cases of faulty judgement which challenge the understanding of diagnostic causal influences. These cases help to clarify the nature of the expertise required for capacity assessments. In practice, the requirements of decision-making capacity are often abandoned to other considerations due to a lack of requisite expertise. The legal policy supporting decision-making capacity as a means to protective intervention is justified only if the requisite expertise is developed. We propose the requisite expertise to be developed in the long term as a distinct multidisciplinary endeavour.

  8. Expert opinions and scientific evidence for colonoscopy key performance indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Colin J; Bevan, Roisin; Zimmermann-Fraedrich, Katharina; Rutter, Matthew D; Rex, Douglas; Dekker, Evelien; Ponchon, Thierry; Bretthauer, Michael; Regula, Jaroslaw; Saunders, Brian; Hassan, Cesare; Bourke, Michael J; Rösch, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    Colonoscopy is a widely performed procedure with procedural volumes increasing annually throughout the world. Many procedures are now performed as part of colorectal cancer screening programmes. Colonoscopy should be of high quality and measures of this quality should be evidence based. New UK key performance indicators and quality assurance standards have been developed by a working group with consensus agreement on each standard reached. This paper reviews the scientific basis for each of the quality measures published in the UK standards. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. A Gaussian model of expert opinions for supporting design decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Spitas, C.; Dorian, Marjanovic; Mario, Storga; Neven, Pavkovic; Nenad, Bojcetic

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this paper is on development of a novel method for decision making process. Decisions play a major role at all stages of the design process. Here we propose to use a new decision making tool for the design process. This method helps designers

  10. Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Tension-type headache (TTH) is a highly prevalent disorder with enormous costs for the individual and the society. AREAS COVERED: Nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments are reviewed. Electromyographic (EMG) biofeedback has a documented effect in TTH, while cognitive-behav...... and clarify how treatment programs can be optimized and combined to best suit the individual patient. Frequent TTH may be difficult to treat, but an acceptable result can usually be obtained by a combination of nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments....

  11. Expert opinion on nanotechnology: risks, benefits, and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besley, John C.; Kramer, Victoria L.; Priest, Susanna H.

    2008-01-01

    A survey of American (US) nanotechnology researchers (N = 177) suggests a diversity of views about what areas are most important to the burgeoning field, as well as perceptions about the overall benefits and risks of such research. On average, respondents saw a range of technologies as key and viewed public health and environmental issues as areas where both risks and the need for regulation are greatest. These areas were also where respondents said current regulations were least adequate. Factor analyses of the survey questions suggest that, when considering both risks and regulations, respondents make a distinction between health and environmental risks, and what might be termed 'social risks' (e.g., invasion of privacy, use of nanotechnology in weapons, and economic impacts)

  12. The Delphi Method: Gathering Expert Opinion in Religious Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumfield, Vivienne M.; Conroy, James C.; Davis, Robert A.; Lundie, David C.

    2012-01-01

    The "Does Religious Education work?" project is part of the Religion and Society programme funded by two major research councils in the UK. It sets out to track the trajectory of Religious Education (RE) in secondary schools in the UK from the aims and intentions represented in policy through its enactment in classroom practice to the…

  13. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  14. Building legitimacy by criticising the pharmaceutical industry: a qualitative study among prescribers and local opinion leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittet, Anne-Laure; Saraga, Michael; Stiefel, Friedrich

    2015-01-01

    The literature has described opinion leaders not only as marketing tools of the pharmaceutical industry, but also as educators promoting good clinical practice. This qualitative study addresses the distinction between the opinion-leader-as-marketing-tool and the opinion-leader-as-educator, as it is revealed in the discourses of physicians and experts, focusing on the prescription of antidepressants. We explore the relational dynamic between physicians, opinion leaders and the pharmaceutical industry in an area of French-speaking Switzerland. Qualitative content analysis of 24 semistructured interviews with physicians and local experts in psychopharmacology, complemented by direct observation of educational events led by the experts, which were all sponsored by various pharmaceutical companies. Both physicians and experts were critical of the pharmaceutical industry and its use of opinion leaders. Local experts, in contrast, were perceived by the physicians as critical of the industry and, therefore, as a legitimate source of information. Local experts did not consider themselves opinion leaders and argued that they remained intellectually independent from the industry. Field observations confirmed that local experts criticised the industry at continuing medical education events. Local experts were vocal critics of the industry, which nevertheless sponsor their continuing education. This critical attitude enhanced their credibility in the eyes of the prescribing physicians. We discuss how the experts, despite their critical attitude, might still be beneficial to the industry's interests.

  15. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2017-06-01

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  16. Concept of expert system for modal split in transportation planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popović Maja M.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a concept of expert system based on the survey of experts' opinions and their experience concerning relations in modal split, on the basis of parameters of transport system demand and transport supply, defined through PT travel time and city size, i.e. mean trip length. This expert system could be of use both to experts and less experienced planners who could apply the knowledge contained in this expert system for further improvement, on operational as well as on strategic level.

  17. [Medical data security in medico-legal opinioning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susło, Robert; Swiatek, Barbara

    2005-01-01

    Medical data security can be approached in medico-legal opinioning in three main situations: security of medical data, on which the opinion should be based, opinioning itself and whether the medical data security was properly ensured and ensuring medical data security during medico-legal opinion giving. The importance of medical data security, during collecting, processing and storing, as well in medical as in legal institutions, is of major importance for the possibility of providing a proper medico-legal opinion. Theoretically speeking, it is possible to give a proper medico-legal opinion using incorrect data, but the possibility is low. When the expert is given improper, unreadable, incomplete or even bogus in part or in the whole medical data it is extremely possible, that he fails in giving his opinion. The term "medical data" was defined and subsequently there was a brief review of medical data storing methods made and specific threats bound with them, based on modern literature. The authors also pointed out possible methods of preventing the threats. They listed Polish as well as international regulations and laws concerning the problem, accenting the importance of preserving medical data for the purposes of medico-legal opinioning.

  18. Do Others’ Opinion Matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fei; Xiao, Bo Sophia; Lim, Eric T. K.

    2016-01-01

    when experiencing dissonance in e-WOM, male consumers value opinionated review over numerical rating and vice versa for their female counterparts. The results of our field survey on a custom developed website with 115 college students empirically validated our hypothesized relationships and also...

  19. Anisotropic opinion dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  20. Influential opinion leaders

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Loeper, A.; Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, C.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 124, č. 581 (2014), s. 1147-1167 ISSN 0013-0133 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : two-stage coordination game * equilibrium outcome * expert influence Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.336, year: 2014

  1. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  2. Defining Sustainable Universities Following Public Opinion Formation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaptcioglu Celikdemir, Deniz; Gunay, Gonca; Katrinli, Alev; Penbek Alpbaz, Sebnem

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to define the sustainable university in Turkey, by considering perspectives of various stakeholders such as experts, intellectual, public, political parties and media using public opinion formation analysis. The paper aims to re-define the "sustainable university" with all dimensions including…

  3. Heterodoxy, iconoclasm and spuriousness: the limits of novel expert evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freckelton, Ian

    2007-12-01

    A difficult issue arises for courts' decision-making at common law and under statutory evidentiary regimes when expert opinions are significantly unorthodox, iconoclastic or methodologically flawed. This editorial analyses the relevant evidentiary principles and the Australian jurisprudence on the subject, giving particular attention to the decisions of the South Australian Supreme Court in R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 143 and R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 316 in which expert opinions about the existence, identifiability and transmissibility of HIV and its relationship to AIDS adduced on behalf of the defence in a criminal trial were found to be seriously wanting. A variety of factors indicative of low probative value in expert opinions are distilled.

  4. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  5. TOOL: The Open Opinion Layer

    OpenAIRE

    Masum, Hassan

    2002-01-01

    Shared opinions drive society: what we read, how we vote, and where we shop are all heavily influenced by the choices of others. However, the cost in time and money to systematically share opinions remains high, while the actual performance history of opinion generators is often not tracked. This article explores the development of a distributed open opinion layer, which is given the generic name of TOOL. Similar to the evolution of network protocols as an underlying layer for many comput...

  6. Opinion, energy and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-02-01

    The author comments the evolution of the results of various opinion surveys on energy in France and more particularly the high support for electricity production from renewable energies, the acceptance of the financial burden associated to energy, the fact that nuclear energy has more benefits than pitfalls but is still considered as a hazardous activity, the fact that consumers are aware of environmental risks for the planet but still have an incomplete knowledge of the energy sector and new technologies

  7. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  8. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  9. Travel opinion leaders and seekers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yoo, Kyung-Hyan; Gretzel, Ulrike; Zach, Florian

    2011-01-01

    While opinion leadership has been recognized as important in tourism, there has been very little empirical research investigating the phenomenon. Given new developments in social media technologies, it is especially important to understand whether travel opinion leadership and seeking are drivers...... of specific social media perceptions and behaviours. Based on an online survey of US online travellers, this paper seeks to identify travel opinion leaders and seekers and their characteristics. Further, the research conducted investigated linkages between travel opinion leadership/seeking and travel social...... media use. The findings suggest that travel opinion leadership and seeking are distinct but connected. Both opinion leaders and seekers are technology savvy, young, educated, involved in travel planning and engaged in social media use for travel. What distinguishes opinion leaders is their greater...

  10. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  11. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  12. Social influence and the collective dynamics of opinion formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E; Analytis, Pantelis P; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.

  13. Influential opinion leaders

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Loeper, A.; Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, C.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 124, č. 581 (2014), s. 1147-1167 ISSN 0013-0133 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-34759S Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : two-stage coordination game * equilibrium outcome * expert influence Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.336, year: 2014

  14. Public opinions and antinuclear contestations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, P.R.N. da

    1978-01-01

    With the aim of demonstrating the importance of public opinion in the development of a nuclear program, a historical analysis of the different forms of anti-technological reactions is shown, starting with a study of the general aspects of mass communication and public opinion. The world-wide communication strategy adopted in the implantation of nuclear programs is discussed and, finally, the nuclear energy issue and public opinion in Brazil are analysed. (F.E.) [pt

  15. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  16. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  17. Your opinion counts

    CERN Multimedia

    2009-01-01

    The Human Resources Department will soon be launching an opinion poll for CERN staff members In his message to the CERN personnel, the new Director-General said "My New Year’s resolution involves managing CERN in a participative, democratic and inclusive manner". In the same spirit, the Human Resources (HR) Department plans to develop new channels of communication with CERN personnel. Dialogue is not always easy in an organization the size of CERN and, with this, its first survey, HR hopes to contribute towards it. In March this year, the HR Department will be sending an on-line questionnaire to all staff, giving you the opportunity to comment on your personal experiences of working life at CERN, your expectations and your commitment to the Organization. The initiative is the brainchild of the Head of the HR Department, Enrico Chiaveri, and the Deputy Department Head, Anne-Sylvie Catherin. A...

  18. From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelson, Danuta

    2012-12-01

    In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

  19. Current Opinion on Nanotoxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Pourmand

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Nanotechnology is one of the premiere technologies available today, having expanded both as field of scientific study and in the public consciousness. Despite this growth, the drawbacks, limitations and potential safety hazards associated with the incorporation of nanotechnology into existing industries are still being learned. Thenoticeable point is that there is no enough data available yet to analyze global use of nanotechnology from a meta-perspective. Three challenges can be defined in light of nanotoxicology. One, materials that might prove to be significantly toxic must be identified. Two, a system for the categorization of NP materials must be codified andmade available to toxicologists. Third, a better understanding of nanoparticles biological interactions must be obtained, in order to make the best use of the first two goals. For all three, it must be remembered that research standards need to be developed for the gathering of data on the nanoscale, as that level is where the NPs and the patient’s biosystems will be interacting.As requiring toxicologists to become nanotechnology experts would not be feasible, to properly incorporate the care of nanotoxicity into the existing medical framework, a range of experts across multiple fields of study must work in close synchronization. The focus needs to be on mechanism-driven research to ensure a solid scientificfoundation for the assessment of NP and their role in healthcare.

  20. Current Opinion on Nanotoxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pourmand Ali

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Nanotechnology is one of the premiere technologies available today, having expanded both as field of scientific study and in the public consciousness. Despite this growth, the drawbacks, limitations and potential safety hazards associated with the incorporation of nanotechnology into existing industries are still being learned. The noticeable point is that there is no enough data available yet to analyze global use of nanotechnology from a meta-perspective. Three challenges can be defined in light of nanotoxicology. One, materials that might prove to be significantly toxic must be identified. Two, a system for the categorization of NP materials must be codified and made available to toxicologists. Third, a better understanding of nanoparticles biological interactions must be obtained, in order to make the best use of the first two goals. For all three, it must be remembered that research standards need to be developed for the gathering of data on the nanoscale, as that level is where the NPs and the patient’s biosystems will be interacting. As requiring toxicologists to become nanotechnology experts would not be feasible, to properly incorporate the care of nanotoxicity into the existing medical framework, a range of experts across multiple fields of study must work in close synchronization. The focus needs to be on mechanism-driven research to ensure a solid scientific foundation for the assessment of NP and their role in healthcare.

  1. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  2. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  3. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  4. How Public Opinion is Formed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Edward M.

    1977-01-01

    Investigates the evolution of the definition of public relations by examining cultural and personal determinants of public opinion. Outlines functions of communicators and opinionmakers in forming and influencing public opinion. Available from: Public Relations Review, Ray Hiebert, Dean, College of Journalism, University of Maryland, College Park,…

  5. Rossija kak faktor-irritant dlja politicheskoj jelity stran Baltii v kontekste jelektoral'nyh kampanij 2010—2011 godov: jekspertnyj vzgljad [Russia as an irritant factor for the political elitess of the Baltics in the context of election campaigns of 2010—2011: an expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vadim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an overview of the principal intellectual alternatives of today regarding the role and place of Russia in the social and political spaces of the former Baltic republics, which were articulated in the course of international expert discussions and round tables at the IKBFU.

  6. Your opinion counts

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    Would you say that your work is stimulating? How do you feel about your working environment and working relationships? Are you proud to be part of this Organization? To find the answers to these questions, the Human Resources Department (HR) will be launching, for the first time, a staff member survey. Via an on-line questionnaire, you will have the opportunity to express your opinions about how you see your work, your expectations and your commitment to the Organization. This will promote dialogue at a turning point in CERN’s history with the start-up of the LHC. An HR steering group is now working on the preparation of this survey. A partnership is being developed with a university, which will play an active role in drawing up the questionnaire and will then carry out a confidential and objective analysis of your replies. Your participation will help the Management, in collaboration with HR, to identify action plans in line with the Organization’s aspirations and t...

  7. Factors influencing continuing professional development : A Delphi study among nursing experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, G.B.; Poell, R.F.; van Wijk, K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing

  8. Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

    2011-01-01

    REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

  9. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  10. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  11. Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armen E Allahverdyan

    Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

  12. Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

  13. Opinion Change: Information or Partisanship?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Mogens K.; Klemmensen, Robert; Leavitt, Thomas

    Currently two paradigms seek to explain how voters change their opinion when they are confronted with new information. One school argues that voters are bayesian updaters who rationally change their opinion. Another school argues that voters are inherently biased in their evaluation of new...... information. According to this line of thought voters are more likely to accept information that con_rms their opinion compared to information that contradict their point of view. Using a quasi experiment we investigate the extent to which voters rely on bayesian updating or on motivated reasoning when...

  14. [Professionalization of Legal Dental Experts in Germany: Results of Studies on Structured Focus Groups].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, H U; Walther, W; Dick, M

    2018-04-01

    Legal expert opinions are a crucial instrument of professional self-control in medicine. To give impulses for further development, focus groups were initiated to reflect upon the perspective of legal dental experts. 5 focus group discussions on the topic "Professionalization of legal dental experts" were conducted. A total of 32 experienced legal dental experts participated in the discussions. The results were evaluated by qualitative content analysis. A catalogue of 68 ideas was generated for improvement and divided into 15 categories. Among these were periodic quality circles, interprofessional exchange, supervision of novices and periodic feedback for legal dental experts and dentists. Self-reflection can be included as an instrument for quality improvement of legal dental expert opinions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  15. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  16. Abbott Opinions #1-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Law Center, Inc., Newark, NJ.

    This document contains the following "Abbott Opinions": (1) "Early Childhood Education"; (2) "Adequate School Facilities"; (3) "Supplemental Programs and Whole School Reform in Elementary Schools"; (4) "Supplemental Programs in Middle and High Schools"; and (5) "Planning Programs and Budgets…

  17. Spanish opinion polls 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nufiez Lopez, Maria Pilar

    1999-01-01

    one of the three most important problems. The disadvantages of nuclear power mentioned by 28 percent of the population centre on the issue of pollution - without specifying the type of pollution - and 35 percent refer to the risk of radioactive releases. The information and communication work carried out by the nuclear industry since the country's first nuclear power plant went on line in 1968 has had obvious positive effects on public opinion in the areas surrounding the plants. Comparison of the replies provided by the general population and those from interviewees forming part of populations living close to nuclear power plants clearly demonstrates that opinions are directly related to the greater or lesser degree of ignorance of the subject. Knowledge of the location of Spain's nuclear power plants provides equally curious results. Seventy-five percent of the population claims to know that there are nuclear plants in Spain, but twenty-eight percent does not know or does not answer where these installations are. Evaluation of the data obtained allows the following conclusions to be drawn: Only 8 percent of the interviewees claims to be, pro-nuclear, i.e. in favour of new nuclear power plants being built if there were a need to extend the current generating capacity; 20 percent of the population respects the assumptions made in the Spanish nuclear moratorium: they consider that the plants currently in operation should not be closed down, and that no new plants should be built; 19 percent, thinks that the current plants should be closed, in spite of their recognizing that these installations are necessary and contribute to electricity generation; 24 percent is in favour of gradually replacing the nuclear power plants with other energy sources; 29 percent thinks that the currently operating plants should be shut down. This includes two percent of the population that openly claim to be actively antinuclear in their approach. The future of the Spanish nuclear industry

  18. Opinion dynamics in activity-driven networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dandan; Han, Dun; Ma, Jing; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Khouw, Timothy; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-10-01

    Social interaction between individuals constantly affects the development of their personal opinions. Previous models such as the Deffuant model and the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model have assumed that individuals only update their opinions after interacting with neighbors whose opinions are similar to their own. However, people are capable of communicating widely with all of their neighbors to gather their ideas and opinions, even if they encounter a number of opposing attitudes. We propose a model in which agents listen to the opinions of all their neighbors. Continuous opinion dynamics are investigated in activity-driven networks with a tolerance threshold. We study how the initial opinion distribution, tolerance threshold, opinion-updating speed, and activity rate affect the evolution of opinion. We find that when the initial fraction of positive opinion is small, all opinions become negative by the end of the simulation. As the initial fraction of positive opinions rises above a certain value —about 0.45— the final fraction of positive opinions sharply increases and eventually equals 1. Increased tolerance threshold δ is found to lead to a more varied final opinion distribution. We also find that if the negative opinion has an initial advantage, the final fraction of negative opinion increases and reaches its peak as the updating speed λ approaches 0.5. Finally we show that the lower the activity rate of individuals, the greater the fluctuation range of their opinions.

  19. Waste disposal experts meet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1959-01-15

    Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

  20. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

  1. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  2. Expert Systems Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

  3. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  4. Expert Cold Structure Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  5. Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Bing

    2012-01-01

    Sentiment analysis and opinion mining is the field of study that analyzes people's opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions from written language. It is one of the most active research areas in natural language processing and is also widely studied in data mining, Web mining, and text mining. In fact, this research has spread outside of computer science to the management sciences and social sciences due to its importance to business and society as a whole. The growing importance of sentiment analysis coincides with the growth of social media such as reviews, forum discussions

  6. Alleged child sexual abuse : The expert witness and the court

    OpenAIRE

    Gumpert, Clara Hellner

    2001-01-01

    Background During the past decades, the evaluation of alleged sexual abuse has manifested itself as a major challenge for professionals working within the field of child maltreatment. A new role for psychologists and psychiatrists has been to give expert opinions regarding the credibility and reliability of child witnesses in legal proceedings. Although some aspects of evaluating suspected sexual abuse cases are close to traditional clinical work, other aspects necessitate ...

  7. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology : an expert stakeholder analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, N.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Lans, van der, I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

  8. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

  9. Energy policy decision making and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstein, L.

    1989-09-01

    By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter-experts

  10. Expert PLSQL Practices

    CERN Document Server

    Beresniewicz, John

    2011-01-01

    Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

  11. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  12. Expert tool use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

  13. Public opinion polls on nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, E.D.

    1980-07-01

    Future developments in the attitude towards nuclear energy can not be predicted on account of this public opinion survey. The survey shows just how many different factors influence the attitude towards issues of public and political interst. For this reason in particular, it would be desirable to include such aspects into future surveys. The survey shows that public opinion polls quite often investigate on the ordering party's opinion rather than the pollees opinion. The attempt at making public opinion polls a means of forming political opinions, implying a certain desired opinion to be the majority opinion has brought those polls into disrepute. If real results are not required and manipulation prevails, results are prevented, which must not be blamed on the principle of public opinion polls as such. (orig.) [de

  14. Public opinion and terrorist acts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Malečková, Jitka; Stanišić, Dragana

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 27, Sup. 1 (2011), S107-S121 ISSN 0176-2680 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : support for terrorism * public opinion * international terrorism Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.437, year: 2011

  15. Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

    Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

  16. Public opinion, information and education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De La Poza Galiano, A.

    1994-01-01

    The molding of public opinion by media, concerning nuclear energy, is analyzed, and the assumptions such as: nuclear plants equal atomic bombs or 'nuclear plants, no thanks', are emphasized. A response to this media hammering in Spain has been developed through teachers' education seminars organized by the Spanish Atomic forum and the Book on Energy, edited by specialized educators

  17. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  18. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  19. Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

  20. Impotent science, omnipotent public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillaume, Nathalie

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Nowadays public opinion has become prominent when political leaders have themselves to vote. Even scientific or economical decisions are often taken more in accordance to these trends than to rational reasons. For a long time it has been widely accepted that a clear and pedagogical explanation was enough to make scientific issues understandable. For nearly 20 years, a true scientific and professional communication has been developed in France towards the general public to make nuclear industry acceptable. Nevertheless today, we notice that the acceptance of the nuclear option has lost many points in public polls. An accident, in the nuclear fields or in another fields, in one point or another of the planet can ruin the work of many years in communication. 1) In order to draw a more precise picture of public opinion, to follow these trends and make them more understandable, the CEA communication direction has built a 'public opinion barometer' dealing with the following fields: - Information on nuclear fields; - The nuclear actors; - The future of nuclear option; - Radioactive waste; - Risks perception; - Nuclear energy and other sources of energy; - Economy and nuclear power; - Image of nuclear. 2) Come and visit our labs to make up your own opinion: As communication methods through the classical media has, up to now, failed in changing public opinion regarding nuclear, the decision was made to offer to people the opportunity to meet searchers at work.400 'Communicating researchers' to day are volunteers to receive the public .They are trained to be able to explain their work to non specialists; they receive documents dealing with current events to help them answer to questions and they are invited to an annual general meeting (last one in January 2001). 85 laboratories are opened (civil and military ones). In 2000, nearly 10,000 visitors have come to us. In 2001, new additional operations will be lead toward young people, teachers, associations. (author)

  1. Part of an observatory of opinions on risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1999-01-01

    An observatory of opinions about risks constitutes the frame in which can be developed exchanges between research workers, engineers, experts, persons in charge of authorities and societies managers for who the way whom the public takes into account the risks constitutes an element of the management, the decision or the communication. The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (I.P.S.N.) has, with the passing of the years, build a such observatory whom activities are developed according to several directions. (N.C.)

  2. Expert Oracle Exadata

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua

  3. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  4. The IRSN 2008 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about quantitative criteria of risk management and about the image of science), on their opinion of scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), incidents which occurred in 2007, the demand of information on the nuclear risk), and on their opinion about radiotherapy accidents in France

  5. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2017-06-08

    Jun 8, 2017 ... jiroveci. Most of them had recently been diagnosed with Kaposi sarcoma, a rare malignancy, which is the "trademark" of this new immune .... De Buck E, Dieltjens T, Compernolle V, Vandekerckhove P. Is having sex with other ...

  6. OPINION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-03-01

    Mar 1, 2012 ... THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN JOURNAL OF HIV MEDICINE. 14 ... In this article, we explore how three factors (a belief .... Delius P, Glaser C. The myths of polygamy: a history of extra-marital and multi-partnership sex in South.

  7. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2012-07-24

    Jul 24, 2012 ... Challenges in disclosure of adverse events and errors in surgery; perspectives from sub-Saharan Africa. Abdulrasheed Ibrahim1,&, Ekundayo Stephen Garba1, Malachy Eneye Asuku1. 1Department of surgery, Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital P.M.B 06 Shika Zaria, Nigeria. &Corresponding ...

  8. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    raoul

    2011-08-23

    Aug 23, 2011 ... Reporting epidemics: newspapers, information dissemination and the story of Ebola in the Ugandan district of Luweero. Allan Mwesiga1,&. 1Pan African Medical Journal, African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET), Kampala, Uganda. &Corresponding author: Pan African Medical Journal, African Field ...

  9. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2015-02-10

    Feb 10, 2015 ... thrombophilia, an antiphospholipids syndrome, Behçet´s disease and neoplasia. Medical therapy and surgical resection can be mentioned these thrombotic complication. Surgical treatment could be considered because the right atrial thrombus was mobile and it caused a massive pulmonary embolism.

  10. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    raoul

    23 mai 2011 ... Abstract. Le Cameroun utilise un système de budgétisation historique et une approche «top - down» pour allouer ses ressources de santé publique. Cependant, le pays compte 175 districts de santé dont les fortes disparités de nature épidémiologique, économique, géographique et culturelle, devraient ...

  11. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2012-06-21

    Jun 21, 2012 ... In Kenya, universities offering undergraduate training in medicine include the university of Nairobi and Moi .... road traffic accident. .... more knowledgeable about its pharmacology but because they have the solution that will.

  12. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    endeavours in such fields as the short-story, the novel, folklore, criticisms and play writing, it is not hard to ... tively little critical attention deserving of his three or so decades of artistic output. Apart from ... them current [have now] faded into the limbo of memory? .... to be desired as a novel in terms of fonn and style. After all the ...

  13. OPINION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    decrease trainee exposure to rare and complex as well as and to common paediatric surgical pathologies.1 ... nurses, anaesthetists and intensivists), and overall shortage of health care workers and resources pose ... order to gain the skills, knowledge and maturity necessary to practice independently as professionals.

  14. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  15. Identifying Opinion Leaders to Promote Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Thomas W.; Pumpuang, Patchareeya

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews 10 techniques used to identify opinion leaders to promote behavior change. Opinion leaders can act as gatekeepers for interventions, help change social norms, and accelerate behavior change. Few studies document the manner in which opinion leaders are identified, recruited, and trained to promote health. The authors categorize…

  16. Synthesis of the IRSN report related to severe accidents and to the probabilistic level-2 safety study for the Flamanville EPR reactor. Referral of the Permanent Group of Experts for nuclear reactors (GPR), examination of probabilistic level-2 safety studies (EPS 2) and severe accidents (AG) of the Flamanville reactor nr 3. Opinion related to severe accidents and to the probabilistic level-2 safety study for the Flamanville EPR reactor (FA3). Electronuclear reactors - EDF - Flamanville 3 EPR reactor. Severe accidents and probabilistic level 2 studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This document gathers several documents. The first one recalls the main arrangements implemented on the FA3 EPR reactor regarding accidents with core fusion, reports the analysis made by the IRSN about the sizing of these arrangements to reach a controlled status of the installation after a severe accident, regarding the probabilistic level-2 safety assessment, regarding the radiological impact of a severe accident on the population and on the environment, regarding those aimed at facing a total and long duration loss of electric power sources and cold sources, and about the situation of the reactor with respect to WENRA positions on severe accidents for new reactors. The second document is a letter sent by the ASN to the Permanent Group of Experts for nuclear reactors (GPR) to address probabilistic level-2 safety studies (EPS2) and severe accidents for the Flamanville 3 reactor. The third one reports the opinion of the GPR on these both issues and proposes a set of recommendations. The next document is a letter sent by the ASN to the Flamanville 3 project manager at EDF which recalls the related objectives, the ASN opinion on the implemented arrangements for severe accidents (de-pressurization of the primary circuit, management of hydrogen-related risks, corium recovery and cooling outside the vessel, limitation of vapour explosion risks outside the vessel, heat evacuation system, containment enclosure, management of the risk of a return to criticality), to face a total and long duration loss of electricity sources and cold sources, and other aspects addressed in the IRSN analysis. Requests and remarks formulated by the ASN are provided in an appendix to this last document

  17. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  18. An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Dobrinić, Damir; Dvorski, Stjepan; Bosilj, Neven

    2008-01-01

    Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and...

  19. Towards an ICF core set for ADHD: a worldwide expert survey on ability and disability

    OpenAIRE

    de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; Coghill, David; de Vries, Petrus J.; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Levy, Florence; Almodayfer, Omar; Rohde, Luis; Tannock, Rosemary; B?lte, Sven

    2015-01-01

    This is the second in a series of four empirical studies designed to develop International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF and Children and Youth version, ICF-CY) core sets for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The objective of this stage was to gather the opinions from international experts on which ability and disability concepts were considered relevant to functioning in ADHD. An email-based survey was carried out amongst international experts in AD...

  20. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  1. The public opinion and ATC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballera, J.

    2010-01-01

    The role of the media is essential to adopt a final decision in relation to the location of a Centralized Temporary Storage (ATC)in Spain. to the deliberative process is public, open and transparent, as included in Royal Decree that created the Inter ministerial Commission responsible for overseeing the procedure, it is necessary for that citizens has information, clear and unequivocal. indicators such as the special edition of the Eurobarometer survey published in June 2008 showed that it is moving towards a truly informed public opinion in these matters. (Author)

  2. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  3. The First Expert CAI System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    1984-01-01

    The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

  4. French opinion on Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucaille, A.

    2003-01-01

    Contrary to what many think or say, most French people do not have a clear-cut opinion about nuclear power. And until public opinion can be accurately assessed, we should be worried of speaking on its behalf. More than half the population of France believes that nuclear power is the cheapest option, but 40% of them have no idea what the situation really is. The French are keenly aware of the what is at stake at the international level, and the fact that energy is becoming a worldwide issue. What they are most concerned about is nuclear waste and the possibility of a catastrophe of the Chernobyl type occurring. Disquiet about the first is now dissipating, after having increased. But attitudes about the second are ambivalent. A quarter of the French are very ignorant about radioactivity. 20% of the population complain that not enough information is forthcoming, particularly as concerns advances in technology. As can be anticipated, awareness of the question of climate change is growing year by year, with increased reporting of storms, floods and heat waves

  5. Nuclear power and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazanikov, I.A.; Klykov, S.A.

    2000-01-01

    The public opinion on Nuclear Power is not favorable. A purposeful work with public perception is necessary. One way to create a positive image of the nuclear industry is to improve public radiological education. This challenge can be resolved in the close cooperation with state school and preschool education. The formation about nuclear power should be simple and symbolical. Our society can be divided into 4 parts which can be called as target groups: First group - People from the nuclear industry with special education working at nuclear facilities or related to the industry. Second group - People working in the fields connected with nuclear power. Third group - People not related to nuclear power or even with negative impression to the industry. This group is the largest and the work required is the most difficult. Fourth group - The number of this group's members is the least, but it has strong influence on public opinion. 'Greens' and a broad spectrum of ecological organizations can be included in this group. (Authors)

  6. Bridge between public perception and expert assessment of nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-09-01

    Preparation of the brief consisted of a comprehensive review of literature, selective interviews of available representative parties, and categorization of the spectrum of opinions. Analysis of the information thus obtained included identification of reconcilable and irreconcilable differences among the opinions and indication of possible ways to bridge some of the differences. Opinions were generally found to be best categorized as the pro, neutral, and contra opinions associated with experts and the public. The primary issues separating the opposing groups appear to be the following: 1) the required input for probabilistic risk analysis of accidents; 2) the evaluation of what constitutes an acceptable risk; 3) the evaluation of potential long-term consequences; 4) the general need for nuclear energy; and 5) the long-term risk to public health. Among the above issues, potential for reconciliation was found only for the first two, while the latter issues, because of the relatively short history of the industry and paucity of knowledge on relevant factors, were found difficult to reconcile without expansion of our present knowledge and data base. Reconciliation, generally, was proposed through augmentation of communication among the opposing groups through the availability of appropriate fora and development of a general spirit of good intention for a common cause: mankind's ultimate well-being

  7. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. 2002/03 public opinion survey 'Nuclear Energy - the Present and the Future'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trontl, K.; Gergeta, K.

    2003-01-01

    During the years 2000 and 2002 the Croatian Nuclear Society Young Generation Network carried out public opinion surveys among student population of around 650 individuals age 18-20. The results of the surveys suggested the necessity of a more active involvement of nuclear experts in high school education. Croatian Young Generation Network decided to prepare brochures on different subjects concerning nuclear energy and distribute them to high school students, primarily third and fourth graders. To be able to evaluate the influence of distributed materials, fresh reference data are needed. Therefore, a traditional public opinion survey 'Nuclear Energy - the Present and the Future' has been carried out among faculty student population. (author)

  9. Basic foundations of phthisiology professionalization in the assessment of experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alenin P.N.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to study the conditions and stereotypes that determine the process of professionalization in the field of phthisiology. The main factors have been analyzed that characterize the situation of ТВ as a public health sphere in Russia. Material and Methods. Applying qualitative research strategy — semi-structured expert interviews. The basis of the study is the expert opinion of practitioners in the field of ТВ: ТВ service specialists of Saratov Region (Regional Clinical ТВ Dispensary in Saratov and lecturers of the department of Phthisiopulmonology of Saratov State Medical University n.a. V. I. Razumovsky (n=10. Results. The article presents research materials, aimed at identifying the specifics of the basic foundations of national ТВ professionalization. The main factors of vocational choice include a personal interest in the profession, value preferences, information availability, safety and the risk of occupational diseases, the contingent of patients. Conclusion. On the basis of expert opinion the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors to assess ТВ status of the professional medical community, as well as students — physicians in the context of their future professional socialization have been described.

  10. Identifying the Essential Elements of Effective Science Communication: What Do the Experts Say?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, Belinda; France, Bev; Gilbert, John K.

    2012-01-01

    Experts in science communication were asked to identify the essential elements of a science communication course for post-graduate students. A Delphi methodology provided a framework for a research design that accessed their opinions and allowed them to contribute to, reflect on and identify 10 essential elements. There was a high level of…

  11. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  12. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  13. Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

    2018-04-01

    We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

  14. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  15. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  16. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  17. Conciliatory and contradictory dynamics in opinion formation

    OpenAIRE

    Boudin , Laurent; Mercier , Aurore; Salvarani , Francesco

    2012-01-01

    International audience; In this article, we study, via a kinetic description, the effect of different psychologies on the evolution of the opinion with respect to a binary choice, in a closed group. We show that the interaction between individuals with different reactions regarding the exchange of opinion induces some phenomena, such as the concentration of opinions or the cyclic-in-time behaviour of the distribution function. We provide an existence and uniqueness result for the model and nu...

  18. Law for nuclear experts only

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

    1980-02-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

  19. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  20. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  1. Public opinion survey on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The results of a public opinion survey on energy, conducted by Prime Minister's Office from November 26 to December 2, 1980, are described. Of the sampling of 5,000 adults throughout the nation, 4,113 replied the questions. The contents are as follows: awaraness of energy conservation, projection of the future of nuclear power, uneasiness about nuclear power, and energy policies. Concerning the major power generation system of the future, 47% of the people mentioned nuclear energy, followed by 18% mentioned solar energy. As to the future share of nuclear power, 38% favored its increase, 28% its maintaining at the current level, and only 5% wanted its decrease. About the feeling of uneasiness, 56% felt uneasiness and 44% were secure, making it clear that the uneasiness has not yet been eliminated. (J.P.N.)

  2. Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggermont, G.

    2000-01-01

    As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

  3. Preserving experience through expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

  4. Management of diabetic macular edema in Japan: a review and expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terasaki, Hiroko; Ogura, Yuichiro; Kitano, Shigehiko; Sakamoto, Taiji; Murata, Toshinori; Hirakata, Akito; Ishibashi, Tatsuro

    2018-01-01

    Diabetic retinopathy is a frequent cause of visual impairment in working-age adults (≥ 30 years) and in Japan is most commonly observed in those aged 50-69 years. Diabetic macular edema (DME) is one of the main causes of vision disturbance in diabetic retinopathy, which is a clinically significant microvascular complication of diabetes. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy is becoming the mainstay of treatment for DME. However, to achieve sustained long-term improvement in visual acuity, conventional laser photocoagulation, vitrectomy and steroid therapy are also expected to play a role in the treatment of DME. This review summarizes the epidemiology and pathology of diabetic retinopathy and DME, evaluates the findings regarding the diagnosis and treatment of DME, and underscores the importance of systemic management of the disease in the context of the current health care situation in Japan. Finally, the unmet needs of patients with DME and prospects for research are discussed. The weight of evidence suggests that it is important to establish a multipronged treatment strategy centered on anti-VEGF therapy.

  5. Materiality in Public Sector Financial Audit: International Practice and the Opinion of Brazilian Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Juliane Madeira Leitão; José Alves Dantas

    2016-01-01

    Materiality in private sector financial audit is a topic that has been relatively well developed in the literature. Specific research in this regard in public sector auditing, on the other hand, is scarce at the international level and absent in Brazil. In view of this, the purpose of this study was to identify the parameters used to determine materiality in public sector financial audit. To this end, we sent questionnaires to the 192 Supreme Audit Institutions that are members of INTOSAI and...

  6. Experts' opinion on management of hemodynamics in ARDS patients: focus on the effects of mechanical ventilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vieillard-Baron, A.; Matthay, M.; Teboul, J. L.; Bein, T.; Schultz, M.; Magder, S.; Marini, J. J.

    2016-01-01

    Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is frequently associated with hemodynamic instability which appears as the main factor associated with mortality. Shock is driven by pulmonary hypertension, deleterious effects of mechanical ventilation (MV) on right ventricular (RV) function, and

  7. Expert opinion versus actual transaction evidence in the valuation of non-market amenities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cotteleer, G.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2012-01-01

    Actual property values are overwhelmingly employed as a dependent variable in hedonic pricing models. Yet, assessed property values are generally more readily available than actual sales values and have, in some studies, been used in lieu of market prices. In this study, we compare estimates of

  8. [Forgetting hormonal contraceptive methods: expert opinion about their daily management in clinical routine practice].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamin, C; André, G; Audebert, A; Christin-Maître, S; Elia, D; Harvey, T; Letombe, B; Lopes, P; Moreau, C; Nisand, I; Pélissier, C

    2011-11-01

    Many guidelines regarding the daily management of regular oral hormonal contraceptive methods have been proposed worldwide. Some of them may even appear to be conflicting. The search for the maximal contraceptive protection leads to a low acceptance of these guidelines, probably because of their complexity and their apparent discrepancy. We are deeply convinced that simplicity and pragmatism of guidelines should pave the way to both their better acceptance and compliance and, consequently, to their improved real-life effectiveness. We have considered physiology and pharmacodynamics before proposing the following rules for an effective management of hormonal contraceptive failures. We conclude that the risk of unwanted pregnancy is higher in case of a unique contraception misuse/a delayed start during the first week of the contraceptive cycle (or in case of multiple days of contraceptive misuses during the following weeks) for a combined contraception or at every cycle day for a non anti-ovulatory progestin only contraception. In such risky situations, we firmly recommend the restart of the regular contraceptive method and the use of condoms for the following 72 hours, provided no sexual intercourse has occurred during the past 5 days before the contraceptive failure. If sexual intercourse has occurred during the past 5 days before the contraceptive failure, we firmly recommend the intake of an emergency contraception, ulipristal acetate, the restart the regular contraceptive method and in this case, the use of condoms for, at least, the following 7 days. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. Radiosurgery alone for 5 or more brain metastases: expert opinion survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knisely, Jonathan P S; Yamamoto, Masaaki; Gross, Cary P; Castrucci, William A; Jokura, Hidefumi; Chiang, Veronica L S

    2010-12-01

    Oligometastatic brain metastases may be treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone, but no consensus exists as to when SRS alone would be appropriate. A survey was conducted at 2 radiosurgery meetings to determine which factors SRS practitioners emphasize in recommending SRS alone, and what physician characteristics are associated with recommending SRS alone for ≥ 5 metastases. All physicians attending the 8th Biennial Congress and Exhibition of the International Stereotactic Radiosurgery Society in June 2007 and the 18th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society of Stereotactic Radiosurgery in July 2009 were asked to complete a questionnaire ranking 14 clinical factors on a 5-point Likert-type scale (ranging from 1 = not important to 5 = very important) to determine how much each factor might influence a decision to recommend SRS alone for brain metastases. Results were condensed into a single dichotomous outcome variable of "influential" (4-5) versus "not influential" (1-3). Respondents were also asked to complete the statement: "In general, a reasonable number of brain metastases treatable by SRS alone would be, at most, ___." The characteristics of physicians willing to recommend SRS alone for ≥ 5 metastases were assessed. Chi-square was used for univariate analysis, and logistic regression for multivariate analysis. The final study sample included 95 Gamma Knife and LINAC-using respondents (54% Gamma Knife users) in San Francisco and 54 in Sendai (48% Gamma Knife users). More than 70% at each meeting had ≥ 5 years experience with SRS. Sixty-five percent in San Francisco and 83% in Sendai treated ≥ 30 cases annually with SRS. The highest number of metastases considered reasonable to treat with SRS alone in both surveys was 50. In San Francisco, the mean and median numbers of metastases considered reasonable to treat with SRS alone were 6.7 and 5, while in Sendai they were 11 and 10. In the San Francisco sample, the clinical factors identified to be most influential in decision making were Karnofsky Performance Scale score (78%), presence/absence of mass effect (76%), and systemic disease control (63%). In Sendai, the most influential factors were the size of the metastases (78%), the Karnofsky Performance Scale score (70%), and metastasis location (68%). In San Francisco, 55% of respondents considered treating ≥ 5 metastases and 22% considered treating ≥ 10 metastases "reasonable." In Sendai, 83% of respondents considered treating ≥ 5 metastases and 57% considered treating ≥ 10 metastases "reasonable." In both groups, private practitioners, neurosurgeons, and Gamma Knife users were statistically significantly more likely to treat ≥ 5 metastases with SRS alone. Although there is no clear consensus for how many metastases are reasonable to treat with SRS alone, more than half of the radiosurgeons at 2 international meetings were willing to extend the use of SRS as an initial treatment for ≥ 5 brain metastases. Given the substantial variation in clinicians' approaches to SRS use, further research is required to identify patient characteristics associated with optimal SRS outcomes.

  10. Key considerations for preventing suicide in older adults: consensus opinions of an expert panel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete; Conwell, Yeates

    2011-01-01

    The number of older adults is growing rapidly. This fact, combined with the high rates of suicide in later life, indicates that many more older adults will die by their own hands before rigorous trials can be conducted to fully understand the best approaches to prevent late life suicide....

  11. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  12. Welfare assessment of laying hens in furnished cages and non-cage systems: assimilating expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodenburg, T.B.; Tuyttens, F.; Reu, de K.; Herman, L.; Zoons, J.; Sonck, B.

    2008-01-01

    It is extremely difficult to carry out an assessment of welfare in an entirely objective manner. The choice of welfare indicators, as well as the assignment of relative weightings to these indicators, both involve a certain degree of subjectivity. The aim of this study was to create a possible

  13. Prioritizing multiple health behavior change research topics: expert opinions in behavior change science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Katie; Park, Eunhee; Nigg, Claudio R

    2016-06-01

    Multiple health behavior change (MHBC) approaches are understudied. The purpose of this study is to provide strategic MHBC research direction. This cross-sectional study contacted participants through the Society of Behavioral Medicine email listservs and rated the importance of 24 MHBC research topics (1 = not at all important, 5 = extremely important) separately for general and underserved populations. Participants (n = 76) were 79 % female; 76 % White, 10 % Asian, 8 % African American, 5 % Hispanic, and 1 % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Top MHBC research priorities were predictors of behavior change and the sustainability, long-term effects, and dissemination/translation of interventions for both populations. Recruitment and retention of participants (t(68) = 2.17, p = 0.000), multi-behavioral indices (t(68) = 3.54, p = 0.001), and measurement burden (t(67) = 5.04, p = 0.001) were important for the underserved. Results identified the same top research priorities across populations. For the underserved, research should emphasize recruitment, retention, and measurement burden.

  14. Iron deficiency across chronic inflammatory conditions: International expert opinion on definition, diagnosis, and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappellini, Maria Domenica; Comin-Colet, Josep; de Francisco, Angel; Dignass, Axel; Doehner, Wolfram; Lam, Carolyn S; Macdougall, Iain C; Rogler, Gerhard; Camaschella, Clara; Kadir, Rezan; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Spahn, Donat R; Taher, Ali T; Musallam, Khaled M

    2017-10-01

    Iron deficiency, even in the absence of anemia, can be debilitating, and exacerbate any underlying chronic disease, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Iron deficiency is frequently concomitant with chronic inflammatory disease; however, iron deficiency treatment is often overlooked, partially due to the heterogeneity among clinical practice guidelines. In the absence of consistent guidance across chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease and inflammatory bowel disease, we provide practical recommendations for iron deficiency to treating physicians: definition, diagnosis, and disease-specific diagnostic algorithms. These recommendations should facilitate appropriate diagnosis and treatment of iron deficiency to improve quality of life and clinical outcomes. © 2017 The Authors American Journal of Hematology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Implementing and expanding HIV testing in immigrant populations in Europe: Comparing guideline's recommendations and expert's opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Del Arco, Débora; Monge, Susana; Rivero-Montesdeoca, Yaiza; Burns, Fiona; Noori, Teymur; Del Amo, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Immigrant populations, especially those from endemic countries, living in the European Union (EU) suffer a disproportionate burden of HIV, delayed diagnosis and poorer access to antiretroviral treatment. While International Organisations are developing recommendations aimed at increasing the uptake of HIV testing, the feasibility and real outcomes of these measures remain unexplored. The aim of this review was, firstly to identify the recommendations of the main International Organisations (IO) on HIV testing in immigrants. Secondly, to describe the challenges for implementing and expanding HIV testing and counselling interventions targeting immigrants by interviewing key informants. The importance of HIV testing in immigrants is discussed, along with the appropriateness of universal HIV testing approaches vs most at risk targeted approaches. Also addressed is, pre- and post-HIV test counselling characteristics and community initiatives suitable to reach this population and, finally the legal issues regarding access to treatment for illegal immigrants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  16. An expert opinion on postoperative pain management, with special reference to new developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Jørgen B; Mathiesen, Ole; Kehlet, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Recently, much attention has been directed towards the effect of opioid-sparing strategies on postoperative morbidity and hospitalization, and on different nociceptive mechanisms involved in various postoperative pain states and surgical procedures. This has resulted in an increased interest...

  17. Expert Opinion on the Management of Lennox–Gastaut Syndrome: Treatment Algorithms and Practical Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Helen Cross

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Lennox–Gastaut syndrome (LGS is a severe epileptic and developmental encephalopathy that is associated with a high rate of morbidity and mortality. It is characterized by multiple seizure types, abnormal electroencephalographic features, and intellectual disability. Although intellectual disability and associated behavioral problems are characteristic of LGS, they are not necessarily present at its outset and are therefore not part of its diagnostic criteria. LGS is typically treated with a variety of pharmacological and non-pharmacological therapies, often in combination. Management and treatment decisions can be challenging, due to the multiple seizure types and comorbidities associated with the condition. A panel of five epileptologists met to discuss consensus recommendations for LGS management, based on the latest available evidence from literature review and clinical experience. Treatment algorithms were formulated. Current evidence favors the continued use of sodium valproate (VPA as the first-line treatment for patients with newly diagnosed de novo LGS. If VPA is ineffective alone, evidence supports lamotrigine, or subsequently rufinamide, as adjunctive therapy. If seizure control remains inadequate, the choice of next adjunctive antiepileptic drug (AED should be discussed with the patient/parent/caregiver/clinical team, as current evidence is limited. Non-pharmacological therapies, including resective surgery, the ketogenic diet, vagus nerve stimulation, and callosotomy, should be considered for use alongside AED therapy from the outset of treatment. For patients with LGS that has evolved from another type of epilepsy who are already being treated with an AED other than VPA, VPA therapy should be considered if not trialed previously. Thereafter, the approach for a de novo patient should be followed. Where possible, no more than two AEDs should be used concomitantly. Patients with established LGS should undergo review by a neurologist specialized in epilepsy on at least an annual basis, including a thorough reassessment of their diagnosis and treatment plan. Clinicians should always be vigilant to the possibility of treatable etiologies and alert to the possibility that a patient’s diagnosis may change, since the seizure types and electroencephalographic features that characterize LGS evolve over time. To date, available treatments are unlikely to lead to seizure remission in the majority of patients and therefore the primary focus of treatment should always be optimization of learning, behavioral management, and overall quality of life.

  18. Expert opinion on the management of infections in the diabetic foot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipsky, B A; Peters, E J G; Senneville, E; Berendt, A R; Embil, J M; Lavery, L A; Urbančič-Rovan, V; Jeffcoate, W J

    2012-02-01

    This update of the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot incorporates some information from a related review of diabetic foot osteomyelitis (DFO) and a systematic review of the management of infection of the diabetic foot. The pathophysiology of these infections is now well understood, and there is a validated system for classifying the severity of infections based on their clinical findings. Diagnosing osteomyelitis remains difficult, but several recent publications have clarified the role of clinical, laboratory and imaging tests. Magnetic resonance imaging has emerged as the most accurate means of diagnosing bone infection, but bone biopsy for culture and histopathology remains the criterion standard. Determining the organisms responsible for a diabetic foot infection via culture of appropriately collected tissue specimens enables clinicians to make optimal antibiotic choices based on culture and sensitivity results. In addition to culture-directed antibiotic therapy, most infections require some surgical intervention, ranging from minor debridement to major resection, amputation or revascularization. Clinicians must also provide proper wound care to ensure healing of the wound. Various adjunctive therapies may benefit some patients, but the data supporting them are weak. If properly treated, most diabetic foot infections can be cured. Providers practising in developing countries, and their patients, face especially challenging situations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Expert opinion : Defining response to omalizumab in patients with chronic spontaneous urticaria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida; İnalöz, Hüseyin Serhat; Knulst, André; Lapeere, Hilde; Parthasaradhi, Anchala; Stingl, Georg; Tagka, Anna; Valenzuela, Fernando; Yeung, Jensen; Thomsen, Simon Francis

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third-line

  20. Expert opinion: Experience with 6-mercaptopurine in the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease

    OpenAIRE

    Korelitz, Burton I

    2013-01-01

    Arbitrarily, modern day treatment of inflammatory bowel disease begins with the introduction of immunosuppressives for ulcerative colitis. Clinical improvement with sulfasalazine had been meaningful but modest. Treatment with adrenocorticotropic hormone and corticosteroids led to clinical responses never before realized but it took much too long to recognize that they were not capable of maintaining remission, that adverse reactions were subtle but potentially devastating and that some other ...

  1. Expert opinion: experience with 6-mercaptopurine in the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korelitz, Burton I

    2013-05-28

    Arbitrarily, modern day treatment of inflammatory bowel disease begins with the introduction of immunosuppressives for ulcerative colitis. Clinical improvement with sulfasalazine had been meaningful but modest. Treatment with adrenocorticotropic hormone and corticosteroids led to clinical responses never before realized but it took much too long to recognize that they were not capable of maintaining remission, that adverse reactions were subtle but potentially devastating and that some other agent would be necessary to capitalize on their transient advantage. This of course was true in the treatment of Crohn's disease as well. Not much was ever made of the role of sulfasalazine for Crohn's disease, but with the severing of the diazobond and the elimination of the sulphur component, the 5-aminosalacylic acid (5-ASA) products clearly led to clinical improvement, especially in cases of Crohn's colitis and those with ileitis where the 5-ASA product was released in the terminal ileum and more proximal in the small bowel as well as in ulcerative colitis. The induction of remission was first demonstrated by 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) with case reports and uncontrolled trials in patients with ulcerative colitis, but its placebo controlled trial for Crohn's disease firmly established its role in inducing remission. No subsequent trial has confirmed its similar role for ulcerative colitis, but nevertheless clinicians know well that 6-MP works at least as well and probably more effectively for ulcerative colitis than for Crohn's disease. What changes have taken place utilizing 6-MP in the management of inflammatory bowel disease since its introduction in the 1960's and 1970's and its trial for Crohn's disease published in the New England Journal of Medicine in 1980?

  2. [Sport as a means to prevention, rehabilitation, and health promotion. An expert opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brehm, W; Bös, K; Graf, C H; Hartmann, H; Pahmeier, I; Pfeifer, K; Rütten, A; Sygusch, R; Tiemann, M; Tittlbach, S; Vogt, L; Wagner, P

    2013-10-01

    Physical activities are particularly health effective when they are structured and systematically organized, for example, with respect to a dose-response relationship or to psychosocial aspects. Which insights can be gained from scientific knowledge on the structure of physical activities? Which health-related goals can be sought with different physical activities in the field of sport? Which target groups can be reached with these kinds of sport? These questions are addressed in this article on the basis of current scientific knowledge-to promote the development of health-enhancing physical activities especially in sport federations, but also to create a communication platform between the sport and the health sector. The work of researchers in this field is focused mainly on health-enhancing physical activity, but they are also engaged in health-related scientific organizations and in sport federations.

  3. Recurrent Issues in Efforts to Prevent Homicidal Youth Violence in Schools: Expert Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Karen E.; Redding, Richard E.; Smith, Peter K.; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a…

  4. A Comparative Study on Sugeno Integral Approach to Aggregation of Experts' Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Tae Woon

    2007-01-01

    A multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of preference ranking of various alternatives is common in science and engineering fields. Usually, the MCDM problem is characterized in terms of two factors: relative importance of each evaluation criterion and appropriateness of each alternative. The ranking is determined by a relative degree of appropriateness of decision alternatives. In reality, there are different grades of interaction among decision criteria. One of well-known approaches to aggregation of those two factors is the weighted arithmetic mean (WAM) approach. Here, importance weights for criteria are viewed as probability measures. The weights are linearly aggregated with appropriateness values. In the present work, the main objective is to study an aggregation model with various grades of interactions among the decision elements. The successful applications of fuzzy integral aggregation operators to subjective MCDM problems have been motivating this work. On the basis of λ-fuzzy measures and Sugeno integral (SI), the SI aggregation approach is proposed. Here, interaction among criteria is dealt with λ-fuzzy measures. Aggregation of these measures and appropriateness values is implemented, especially, by the Sugeno integral as one of fuzzy integrals. Aggregated values obtained by the SI approach are viewed as decision maker's pessimistic (or conservative) attitude towards information aggregation, compared to the WAM approach. Firstly, the concepts of the λ-fuzzy measure and the Sugeno fuzzy integral are introduced. Then, as an application of the SI approach, an illustrative example is given

  5. Public opinions about human enhancement can enhance the expert-only debate. A review study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, Anne M.; Schuijff, Mirjam

    2016-01-01

    Human enhancement, the non-medical use of biomedical technologies to improve the human body or performance beyond their ‘natural’ limitations, is a growing trend. At the same time, the use of these technologies has societal consequences. In societal debates about human enhancement, however, it is

  6. Expert opinions on the acceptance of alternative methods in food safety evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Punt, Ans; Bouwmeester, Hans; Schiffelers, Marie Jeanne W.A.; Peijnenburg, Ad A.C.M.

    2018-01-01

    Inclusion of alternative methods that replace, reduce, or refine (3R) animal testing within regulatory safety evaluations of chemicals generally faces many hurdles. The goal of the current work is to i) collect responses from key stakeholders involved in food safety evaluations on what they consider

  7. Best practice for aphasia in the acute sector: a consensus of expert opinions

    OpenAIRE

    Bixley, Morag; Blagdon, B.; Dean, M.; Langley, J.; Stanton, D.

    2013-01-01

    Background Information Historically Speech and Language Therapy (SLT) intervention has been guided by a, sometimes bewildering, plethora of standards and guidelines. Publications such as those written by the Royal College of Physicians (2012), the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (2013) and Bowen et al (2012), guide our input within the acute setting. In 2011, the SIG Aphasia Therapy published the results of a survey into the practices of 86 SLTs who worked in 55 diff...

  8. Continental mapping of groundwater dependent ecosystems: A methodological framework to integrate diverse data and expert opinion

    OpenAIRE

    Doody, Tanya M.; Barron, Olga V.; Dowsley, Kate; Emelyanova, Irina; Fawcett, Jon; Overton, Ian C.; Pritchard, Jodie L.; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Warren, Garth

    2017-01-01

    Study region: Australian continent. Study focus: With increasing groundwater development around the world, a method is required to identify and map groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) across broad landscape scales. Identifying the location of GDEs, will ensure that the environmental impacts of increasing water development are understood and will lead to better management of water resources to protect GDEs. In this study, a method is demonstrated that underpinned the development of an o...

  9. Materiality in Public Sector Financial Audit: International Practice and the Opinion of Brazilian Experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliane Madeira Leitão

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Materiality in private sector financial audit is a topic that has been relatively well developed in the literature. Specific research in this regard in public sector auditing, on the other hand, is scarce at the international level and absent in Brazil. In view of this, the purpose of this study was to identify the parameters used to determine materiality in public sector financial audit. To this end, we sent questionnaires to the 192 Supreme Audit Institutions that are members of INTOSAI and to 36 Brazilian public auditors, specialists in financial audit, who are staff members of the TCU or the CGU seeking information with respect to the Institutions’ guidelines and the auditors’ perceptions about materiality. Results reveal that expenditures, revenues and total assets are the benchmarks most recommended by respondents for defining materiality in the public sector. In addition, they recommended the adoption of percentages of up to 2% for each of these parameters in defining what is material. It was observed, as well, especially with respect to the effectiveness of internal control and to public expectations or interests, that qualitative aspects should be also taken into account in determining materiality, although a lesser degree of importance is attributed to this than to the quantitative aspects,. The study contributes to the accounting literature on the development of audits, particularly with respect to the use of a concept, materiality, that is always emphasized in professional standards, but about which there are few objective guidelines.

  10. On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

    2001-05-01

    In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

  11. Fashion clothing involvement, opinion leadership and opinion seeking amongst black generation Y students / Pulaki Joseph Tshabalala

    OpenAIRE

    Tshabalala, Pulaki Joseph

    2014-01-01

    Opinion leadership and opinion seeking are central constructs in academic studies of new product innovations. Fashion opinion leaders as those individuals who accelerate the fashion maturity process by legitimising a fashionable trend and influence other consumers to adopt the new innovative style as a replacement for the current accepted one. Consumers who accept information and adopt new style innovations are called opinion seekers and are important to the diffusion of new fashions because ...

  12. Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion p h and variation proportion p v are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve p v +2p h =2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

  13. Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

  14. Involvement of experts in nuclear licensing and supervisory procedures who are known for their critical attitude towards nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schirp, W.

    1996-01-01

    The article discusses legal and procedural aspects in the context of expert opinions demanded by the supervisory and licensing authorities of nuclear power plants, and the role and activities of experts known for their critical approach to nuclear electricity generation. The aspects addressed are: Reasons to break the dominance of ''established'' experts who in general are members of the TUeV organisations (technical control boards), reasons for challenging motions such as suspicion of prejudice or insufficient expertise, order by the supervisory authority to take a ''dual approach'' and involve two experts for a task, as well as the relevant administrative and legal procedures. (orig./CB) [de

  15. Second-opinion interpretations of gynecologic oncologic MRI examinations by sub-specialized radiologists influence patient care

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakhman, Yulia; Vargas, Hebert Alberto; Sosa, Ramon E.; Hricak, Hedvig; Sala, Evis; D'Anastasi, Melvin; Micco, Maura; Scelzo, Chiara; Nougaret, Stephanie; Chi, Dennis S.; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R.

    2016-01-01

    To determine if second-opinion review of gynaecologic oncologic (GynOnc) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by sub-specialized radiologists impacts patient care. 469 second-opinion MRI interpretations rendered by GynOnc radiologists were retrospectively compared to the initial outside reports. Two gynaecologic surgeons, blinded to the reports' origins, reviewed all cases with discrepancies between initial and second-opinion MRI reports and recorded whether these discrepancies would have led to a change in patient management defined as a change in treatment approach, counselling, or referral. Histopathology or minimum 6-month imaging follow-up were used to establish the diagnosis. Second-opinion review of GynOnc MRIs would theoretically have affected management in 94/469 (20 %) and 101/469 (21.5 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. Specifically, second-opinion review would have theoretically altered treatment approach in 71/469 (15.1 %) and 60/469 (12.8 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. According to surgeons 1 and 2, these treatment changes would have prevented unnecessary surgery in 35 (7.5 %) and 31 (6.6 %) patients, respectively, and changed surgical procedure type/extent in 19 (4.1 %) and 12 (2.5 %) patients, respectively. Second-opinion interpretations were correct in 103 (83 %) of 124 cases with clinically relevant discrepancies between initial and second-opinion reports. Expert second-opinion review of GynOnc MRI influences patient care. (orig.)

  16. Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

    2017-10-01

    The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

  17. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  18. Opinion competition dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, R.; Kouvaris, N. E.; San Miguel, M.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

    2017-12-01

    Multilayer and multiplex networks represent a good proxy for the description of social phenomena where social structure is important and can have different origins. Here, we propose a model of opinion competition where individuals are organized according to two different structures in two layers. Agents exchange opinions according to the Abrams-Strogatz model in each layer separately and opinions can be copied across layers by the same individual. In each layer a different opinion is dominant, so each layer has a different absorbing state. Consensus in one opinion is not the only possible stable solution because of the interaction between the two layers. A new mean field solution has been found where both opinions coexist. In a finite system there is a long transient time for the dynamical coexistence of both opinions. However, the system ends in a consensus state due to finite size effects. We analyze sparse topologies in the two layers and the existence of positive correlations between them, which enables the coexistence of inter-layer groups of agents sharing the same opinion.

  19. Swedish Opinion on Nuclear Power 1986 - 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, Soeren

    2012-11-01

    This report contains the Swedish opinion on Nuclear Power and European Attitudes on Nuclear Power. It also includes European Attitudes Towards the Future of Three Energy Sources; Nuclear Energy, Wind Power and Solar Power - with a focus on the Swedish opinion. Results from measurements done by the SOM Inst. are presented.

  20. French and european opinions about energy questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This paper presents a statistical study of french and european opinions in 1989 about energy questions. The main subjects studied are: qualities of different energy sources (coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy, renewable energies); perception in public opinion of nuclear industry; energy and environmental effects. 6 figs., 1 tab., 4 appendices

  1. Getting a Second Opinion Before Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for a second opinion before surgery. When your doctor says you have a health problem that needs surgery, you have the right to: • Know and understand your treatment choices • Have another doctor look at those choices with you (second opinion) • ...

  2. Competing opinion diffusion on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Haibo

    2017-11-01

    Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people's opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world.

  3. Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

  4. The IRSN 2012 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle

    2012-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (what is the most concerning issue in the present society and in the environment, science within concerns), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), on their opinion on 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities to protect them, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 33 situations), on their opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), and on the Fukushima accident (perception of the accident, quality of information, expectations on the assessment of nuclear power stations)

  5. The IRSN 2010 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 32 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 32 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  6. The IRSN 2009 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  7. Studies in Swedish Energy Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, Soeren; Hedberg, Per

    2012-07-01

    -length studies of Swedish mass attitudes toward nuclear power appeared already in the late 1970-ies. Since then all SNES surveys have included measurements of Swedish opinions on various energy issues. A special election study was done in 1980 covering the nuclear power referendum. Beginning in 1986, SNES's election year measurements were supplemented by annual studies done by the newly founded SOM Institute at Univ. of Gothenburg. These annual measurements were from the start designed and coordinated by the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden, originally financially supported by the now non-existent National Board for Spent Fuel, but since 1999 financed by The Swedish Energy Agency. The analyses in the chapters in this English language book compendium have all been done and published under the auspices of the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden. The time span is quite long, over twenty years. The writing in Chapter 1 appeared already in 1991, while the results in Chapters 7 and 8 are from 2011.

  8. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  9. User Information Needs for Environmental Opinion-forming and Decision-making in Link-enriched Video

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C. Palumbo; L. Hardman (Lynda)

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractLink-enriched video can support users in informative processes of environmental opinion-forming and decision-making. To enable this, we need to specify the information that should be captured in an annotation schema for describing the video. We conducted expert interviews to elicit

  10. Survey Methods, Traditional, Public Opinion Polling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmelund-Præstekær, Christian; Hopmann, David Nicolas; Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2017-01-01

    Traditional public opinion polls are surveys in which a random sample of a given population is asked questions about their attitudes, knowledge, or behavior. If conducted properly, the answers from such surveys are approximately representative of the entire population. Traditional public opinion...... polling is typically based on four different methods of data gathering, or combinations hereof: face-to-face, postal surveys, phone surveys, and web surveys. Given that opinion polls are based on a sample, we cannot be sure that the sample reflects public opinion perfectly, however—even if randomness...... is perfect. Moreover, responses may be highly dependent on the contextual information provided with the question. Also, it may be difficult to capture past or complex causes of attitudes or behavior. In short, surveys are a precise way of measuring public opinion, but they do not come without challenges....

  11. Opinion formation models on a gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael T Gastner

    Full Text Available Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales proportional g(-1/4, not proportional g(-4/7 as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation.

  12. [Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake.part 1. between medicine and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

    2017-01-01

    Creating medico-legal opinion is a sophisticated investigative, analytical, decision-making and creative process. Forensic medicine specialist in cooperation with clinical medicine consultants, on the basis of evidence analysis, which was gathered during procedures and contained in the acts has to create an objective and essential opinion. This opinion is a vital, very important and irreplaceable proof in every case. Judicial body consults with forensic medicine specialist or specialists if there are circumstances for settlement of which there is a need of classified informations - art. 193 of Penalty Code. Forensic medicine specialists face many difficulties which may have effect on quality, positiveness of opinion, compliance with the deadline, increasing expectancy of judicial body or sides. It is very difficult to find clinical specialists which except their clinical knowledge have basic knowledge about law, the role and duties of an court expert. In this article we discuss creating-opinion problems, role and position of court expert in confrontation with expectations of judicial body and the Justice with particular emphasis on medical mistakes and assessment of medical proceedings. We show the complexity of creating of medical opinions, especially these institutional.

  13. Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolger, Donnacha; Houlding, Brett

    2017-01-01

    Linear opinion pools are a common method for combining a set of distinct opinions into a single succinct opinion, often to be used in a decision making task. In this paper we consider a method, termed the Plug-in approach, for determining the weights to be assigned in this linear pool, in a manner that can be deemed as rational in some sense, while incorporating multiple forms of learning over time into its process. The environment that we consider is one in which every source in the pool is herself a decision maker (DM), in contrast to the more common setting in which expert judgments are amalgamated for use by a single DM. We discuss a simulation study that was conducted to show the merits of our technique, and demonstrate how theoretical probabilistic arguments can be used to exactly quantify the probability of this technique being superior (in terms of a probability density metric) to a set of alternatives. Illustrations are given of simulated proportions converging to these true probabilities in a range of commonly used distributional cases. - Highlights: • A novel context for combination of expert opinion is provided. • A dynamic reliability assessment method is stated, justified by properties and a data study. • The theoretical grounding underlying the data-driven justification is explored. • We conclude with areas for expansion and further relevant research.

  14. Reproducible research: a minority opinion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Chris

    2018-01-01

    Reproducible research, a growing movement within many scientific fields, including machine learning, would require the code, used to generate the experimental results, be published along with any paper. Probably the most compelling argument for this is that it is simply following good scientific practice, established over the years by the greats of science. The implication is that failure to follow such a practice is unscientific, not a label any machine learning researchers would like to carry. It is further claimed that misconduct is causing a growing crisis of confidence in science. That, without this practice being enforced, science would inevitably fall into disrepute. This viewpoint is becoming ubiquitous but here I offer a differing opinion. I argue that far from being central to science, what is being promulgated is a narrow interpretation of how science works. I contend that the consequences are somewhat overstated. I would also contend that the effort necessary to meet the movement's aims, and the general attitude it engenders would not serve well any of the research disciplines, including our own.

  15. Food irradiation: Public opinion surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    The Canadian government are discussing the legislation, regulations and practical protocol necessary for the commercialization of food irradiation. Food industry marketing, public relations and media expertise will be needed to successfully introduce this new processing choice to retailers and consumers. Consumer research to date including consumer opinion studies and market trials conducted in the Netherlands, United States, South Africa and Canada will be explored for signposts to successful approaches to the introduction of irradiated foods to retailers and consumers. Research has indicated that the terms used to describe irradiation and information designed to reduce consumer fears will be important marketing tools. Marketers will be challenged to promote old foods, which look the same to consumers, in a new light. Simple like or dislike or intention to buy surveys will not be effective tools. Consumer fears must be identified and effectively handled to support a receptive climate for irradiated food products. A cooperative government, industry, health professional, consumer association and retailer effort will be necessary for the successful introduction of irradiated foods into the marketplace. Grocery Products Manufacturers of Canada is a national trade association of more than 150 major companies engaged in the manufacture of food, non-alcoholic beverages and array of other national-brand consumer items sold through retail outlets

  16. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  17. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

  18. Introducing Managers to Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Paul N.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Describes a short course to expose managers to expert systems, consisting of (1) introductory lecture; (2) supervised computer tutorial; (3) lecture and discussion about knowledge structuring and modeling; and (4) small group work on a case study using computers. (SK)

  19. Expert system in PNC, 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubota, Koji

    1990-01-01

    The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

  20. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  1. Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dahlman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

  2. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  3. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  4. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  5. Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

  6. Expert Recommendations on Treating Psoriasis in Special Circumstances (Part II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrascosa, J M; Galán, M; de Lucas, R; Pérez-Ferriols, A; Ribera, M; Yanguas, I

    2016-11-01

    There is insufficient information on how best to treat moderate to severe psoriasis in difficult clinical circumstances. We considered 5 areas where there is conflicting or insufficient evidence: pediatric psoriasis, risk of infection in patients being treated with biologics, psoriasis in difficult locations, biologic drug survival, and impact of disease on quality of life. Following discussion of the issues by an expert panel of dermatologists specialized in the management of psoriasis, participants answered a questionnaire survey according to the Delphi method. Consensus was reached on 66 (70.9%) of the 93 items analyzed; the experts agreed with 49 statements and disagreed with 17. It was agreed that body mass index, metabolic comorbidities, and quality of life should be monitored in children with psoriasis. The experts also agreed that the most appropriate systemic treatment for this age group was methotrexate, while the most appropriate biologic treatment was etanercept. Although it was recognized that the available evidence was inconsistent and difficult to extrapolate, the panel agreed that biologic drug survival could be increased by flexible, individualized dosing regimens, continuous treatment, and combination therapies. Finally, consensus was reached on using the Dermatology Quality of Life Index to assess treatment effectiveness and aid decision-making in clinical practice. The structured opinion of experts guides decision-making regarding aspects of clinical practice for which there is incomplete or conflicting information. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

    2014-12-01

    It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

  8. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  9. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  10. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  11. Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

  12. Nuclear energy and public opinion: arousal of a myth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrafiotis, D.; Delarminat, E.; Morlat, G.; Pages, J.P.

    1977-01-01

    In order to explain why an individual or the public opinion is in favour or against the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, one should not only consider the dimension of the involved risk, as radiation protection and safety experts will often do. Many other dimensions should be considered all the more as the nuclear problem is gaining importance on a national level, becoming the topic of the day in press and other media and the subject of 'definite' position from political parties and social groups. An investigation carried out within the Protection Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) has made it possible to specify the socio-cultural dimensions at the origin of the attitudes taken on the nuclear problem in France. The nuclear topic was therefore compared with other present topics interesting public opinion; this comparison was made possible by means of an attitude survey covering various social groups. A model of social perception was thus developed [fr

  13. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  14. Nuclear power and public opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-01-01

    The diversity of factors involved in nuclear power development and the complexity of public attitudes towards this source of energy have raised the nuclear debate to a topic of national significance in all the OECD countries with nuclear programmes and even in some countries which have not embarked on the nuclear course. This study examines the different experiences of seventeen member countries and underlines basic approaches and practices aimed at winning greater public acceptance for nuclear power. The first part of the study is a country-by-country presentation of public acceptance activities and the role of the various public or private bodies involved. There is also a description of the background energy situation and the place of nuclear power, the evolution of the nuclear debate and a review of present public and political attitudes to nuclear energy. In the second part, some of the notable factors which determine public attitudes to, and perception of, nuclear energy have been assembled. The study points, in particular, to a number of general principles which require continuous implementation, not least because they contribute to placing nuclear energy in its proper context for the public. Vigorous government leadership in making energy choices, long term efforts in energy education, and open information policies can go a long way towards resolving many doubts about nuclear energy in the public mind. But, perhaps, above all, it is the continuing demonstration of the safe and efficient industrial operation of plants in the nuclear fuel cycle which will have the strongest influence on public opinion. In addition to these basic principles, the study calls attention to some of the most successful means of improving communication between the authorities and the public, notably at the local level. The contribution to the decision-making process of public participation is also evaluated in the light of recent national experiences.

  15. Nuclear power and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The diversity of factors involved in nuclear power development and the complexity of public attitudes towards this source of energy have raised the nuclear debate to a topic of national significance in all the OECD countries with nuclear programmes and even in some countries which have not embarked on the nuclear course. This study examines the different experiences of seventeen member countries and underlines basic approaches and practices aimed at winning greater public acceptance for nuclear power. The first part of the study is a country-by-country presentation of public acceptance activities and the role of the various public or private bodies involved. There is also a description of the background energy situation and the place of nuclear power, the evolution of the nuclear debate and a review of present public and political attitudes to nuclear energy. In the second part, some of the notable factors which determine public attitudes to, and perception of, nuclear energy have been assembled. The study points, in particular, to a number of general principles which require continuous implementation, not least because they contribute to placing nuclear energy in its proper context for the public. Vigorous government leadership in making energy choices, long term efforts in energy education, and open information policies can go a long way towards resolving many doubts about nuclear energy in the public mind. But, perhaps, above all, it is the continuing demonstration of the safe and efficient industrial operation of plants in the nuclear fuel cycle which will have the strongest influence on public opinion. In addition to these basic principles, the study calls attention to some of the most successful means of improving communication between the authorities and the public, notably at the local level. The contribution to the decision-making process of public participation is also evaluated in the light of recent national experiences

  16. Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muggleton, S.H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

  17. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  18. Expert system application education project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  19. Expert systems in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud-Salis, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

  20. Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

    1984-01-01

    There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

  1. Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: guptanidhi12@gmail.com; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); George, Saji, E-mail: saji_george@nyp.gov.sg [Nanyang Polytechnic, Centre for Sustainable Nanotechnology, School of Chemical and Life Sciences (Singapore); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2013-08-15

    The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

  2. Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2013-01-01

    The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors

  3. EMOTION BASED ANALYSIS OF TURKISH CUSTOMER OPINIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kahya-Ozyirmidokuz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Firms should manage their customer feedback so they can adapt to rapid changes in the environment. They have to interact with their customers to understand them and to turn their opinions into useful knowledge. Understanding customers' feelings about a product gives firmS competitive advantage through continuous market monitoring. They can thus generate improving strategies about the system to change perceptions that drive the behaviours of the customers. Firms can view their customers' happiness as a key tool for decision-making. This study calculates online product happiness by using the average emotional valence values of customer opinions. We analyse Turkish opinions about a product over a period of 3 months. We find the averages of the online emotional valence values of the product per month. We also determined the increase in happiness over time. According to the opinion valence values, we found the relations between the documents.

  4. OGC Precedent Opinion 2-2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — Osborn v. Nicholson 21 Vet. App. 223 (2007) - Effect on Existing General Counsel Opinions, Application to other Benefit Programs, and Applicability to Series HH U.S....

  5. Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

  6. Opinion Analysis on Rohingya using Twitter Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochmawati, N.; Wibawa, S. C.

    2018-04-01

    Rohingya is an ethnicity in Myanmar. Recently there was a conflict in the area between the Rakhine population and the Myanmar army. Many opinions are pro and contra in addressing this issue. There is a critic, there is a support and there is a neutral. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the world public opinion about the case of Rohingya. The opinion data to be processed is taken from twitter. the reason for using twitter is because twitter has become one of the popular social media and includes the most frequently visited social media. Therefore, it would be a lot of data that can be taken from twitter to be processed in the process of sentiment analysis. The grouping of opinions will be divided into 3 parts of positive, negative and neutral. the method used in grouping is the naïve Bayes method.

  7. Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

  8. The definition and diagnosis of cold hypersensitivity in the hands and feet: Finding from the experts survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Kwang-Ho; Jeong, Young-Seok; Go, Ho-Yeon; Sun, Seung-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hoon; Jung, Ki-Yong; Song, Yun-Kyung; Ko, Seong-Gyu; Choi, You-Kyung; Park, Jong-Hyeong; Lee, Siwoo; Lee, Youngseop; Jeon, Chan-Yong

    2018-03-01

    Cold hypersensitivity in the hands and feet (CHHF) is a symptom patients usually feel cold in their hands and feet, but not dealt with a disease in western medicine. However, it is often appealed by patients at a clinic of Korean medicine (KM), considered to be a sort of key diagnostic indicator, and actively treated by physicians. Nevertheless, there is no standardized diagnostic definition for CHHF. Therefore, we surveyed KM experts' opinions to address the clinical definition, diagnostic criteria, and other relevant things on CHHF. We developed a survey to assess the definition, diagnosis, causes, and accompanying symptoms on CHHF. 31 experts who work at specialized university hospitals affiliated with KM hospitals consented to participation. Experts responded to survey questions by selecting multiple-choice answers or stating their opinions. Vast majority of experts (83.8%) agreed with our definition on CHHF ("a feeling of cold as a symptom; that one's hands or feet become colder than those of average people in temperatures that are not normally perceived as cold"). 77.4% of experts considered subjective symptoms on CHHF were more important than medical instrument results. Constitution or genetic factors (87.1%) and stress (64.5%) were the most common causes reported for CHHF. This study offers an expert consensus regarding the themes, opinions, and experiences of practitioners with CHHF. Our results underscore the need for standardized definitions and diagnostic criteria for CHHF.

  9. Opinion of women about elective abortion

    OpenAIRE

    ?akmak, B?lent; Metin, Fulya Zeynep; ?zsoy, Asker Zeki; ??t?l, R?za; ?nder, Yal??n; Y?lmaz Do?ru, Hatice

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the opinions of women who presented to the hospital for elective abortion. Materials and Methods: This descriptive study was designed and conducted at our university hospital between March 2013-April 2013 by the method of face-to-face interviews with 500 women who presented to the hospital as patient or relatives of patients. Poll consisted of 6 questions about demographic characteristics and 14 questions evaluating the opinions and attitude...

  10. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  11. Expert systems as decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

  12. Discrete Opinion Dynamics on Online Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yan-Li; Bai, Liang; Zhang, Wei-Ming

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamics of binary opinions {+1, -1} on online social networks consisting of heterogeneous actors. In our model, actors update their opinions under the interplay of social influence and self- affirmation, which leads to rich dynamical behaviors on online social networks. We find that the opinion leading to the consensus features an advantage of the initially weighted fraction based on actors' strength over the other, instead of the population. For the role of specific actors, the consensus converges towards the opinion that a small fraction of high-strength actors hold, and individual diversity of self-affirmation slows down the ordering process of consensus. These indicate that high-strength actors play an essential role in opinion formation with strong social influence as well as high persistence. Further investigations show that the initial fraction of high-strength actors to dominate the evolution depends on the heterogeneity of the strength distribution, and less high-strength actors are needed in the case of a smaller exponent of power-law distribution of actors' strength. Our study provides deep insights into the role of social influence and self-affirmation on opinion formation on online social networks.

  13. Discrete Opinion Dynamics on Online Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yan-Li; Bai Liang; Zhang Wei-Ming

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamics of binary opinions {+1, −1} on online social networks consisting of heterogeneous actors. In our model, actors update their opinions under the interplay of social influence and self- affirmation, which leads to rich dynamical behaviors on online social networks. We find that the opinion leading to the consensus features an advantage of the initially weighted fraction based on actors' strength over the other, instead of the population. For the role of specific actors, the consensus converges towards the opinion that a small fraction of high-strength actors hold, and individual diversity of self-affirmation slows down the ordering process of consensus. These indicate that high-strength actors play an essential role in opinion formation with strong social influence as well as high persistence. Further investigations show that the initial fraction of high-strength actors to dominate the evolution depends on the heterogeneity of the strength distribution, and less high-strength actors are needed in the case of a smaller exponent of power-law distribution of actors' strength. Our study provides deep insights into the role of social influence and self-affirmation on opinion formation on online social networks. (general)

  14. Topological evolution of the internet public opinion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Ying; Dong, Xuefan; Liu, Yijun

    2017-11-01

    The Internet forms a platform featured with high liquidity, accessibility and concealment for the public to express their respective views on certain events, thus leading to a large network graph. Due to such environmental features, the public opinions formed on the Internet are different from those on traditional media. Studies focusing on the former area are relatively fewer. In addition, the majority of existing methods proposed for constructing the Internet public opinion topological structure are based on the classic BA model, thus resulting in drawbacks in the range of simplicity and a lack of strict deduction. Therefore, based on the complex networks theory, a model applied to describe the topology of the Internet public opinion is deduced with rigorous derivation in the present paper. Results show that the proposed expression could well reflect the degree distribution of Internet public opinion which follows an analogous power law distribution, and that the peak value and the degree distribution are not correlative to each other. Moreover, it has been also proved that compared to the classic BA model, the proposed model has better accuracy performance in the description of the degree distribution of the Internet public opinion, which contributes to future studies focusing on this area. Thus, an attempt has been made to give the first theoretical description of the Internet public opinion topology in the present paper. In addition, it is also the first paper focusing on the solution of networks degree distribution with an exponential growth form.

  15. Risk perceptions starting to shift? U.S. citizens are forming opinions about nanotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priest, Susanna; Greenhalgh, Ted; Kramer, Victoria

    2010-01-01

    This article presents early results from an opinion formation study based on a 76-member panel of U.S. citizens, with comparison data from a group of 177 nanotechnology experts. While initially similar to the expert group in terms of their perceptions of the risks, benefits, and need for regulation characterizing several forms of nanotechnology, the first follow-up survey indicates that the panel is beginning to diverge from the experts, particularly with respect to perceptions of the levels of various 'societal' risks that nanotechnology might present. The data suggest that responding to public concerns may involve more than attention to physical risks in areas such as health and environment; concerns about other forms of risk actually appear more salient.

  16. Use of fuzzy set theory in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Joo Hyun; Kang, Chang Sun

    1999-01-01

    It is sometimes impossible to make a correct decision in a certain engineering task without the help from professional expert judgments. Even though there are different expert opinions available, however, they should be appropriately aggregated to a useful form for making an acceptable engineering decision. This paper proposes a technique which utilizes the fuzzy set theory in the aggregation of expert judgments. In the technique, two main key concepts are employed: linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. Linguistic variables first represent the relative importance of evaluation criteria under consideration and the degree of confidence on each expert perceived by the decision maker, and then are replaced by suitable triangular fuzzy numbers for arithmetic manipulation. As a benchmark problem, the pressure increment in the containment of Sequoyah nuclear power plant due to reactor vessel breach was estimated to verify and validate the proposed technique

  17. A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

    2018-02-01

    The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

  18. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  19. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan E. Chamberlain

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  20. Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

    1995-02-01

    Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  1. QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perre, M.

    1991-01-01

    TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong

  2. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C++, and Microsoft C/C++ compilers. The personal edition is licensed for educational, research, and hobby use. Applications created with RT -Expert personal edition are not licensed for commercial purposes. Professional editions are available for commercial applications using DOS, Windows, and. Unix environments.

  3. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  4. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  5. Expert incentives: cure versus prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jaegher, K.

    This paper distinguishes between two scenarios for the expert-client encounter. In the cure scenario, the client does not know whether a loss can be recovered. In the prevention scenario, the client faces a threat but does not know whether this threat is real enough to justify preventive action. The

  6. The role of the expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeesters, P.

    1998-01-01

    The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)

  7. Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daud, A.H.

    1996-01-01

    This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

  8. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

    2017-01-01

    developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

  9. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  10. The experience of a local partnership with experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Draulans, H.

    2004-01-01

    STOLA is an abbreviation for Structured Study group for Low-level short-lived radioactive waste, with all the actors of our small community of Dessel. You may know: social culture and economic factors of course all play a role in radioactive waste management and we work together with the experts of ONDRAF/NIRAS. But I am sure that was explained to you sufficiently yesterday and I can skip all that. 70 000 m 3 of low-level radioactive waste can be disposed of in our area and that only under certain safety conditions for humans and the environment. Of course one of the conditions is also that it has an added value for our municipality. In the past four years, I have participated in the activities of STOLA in Dessel and also led them. In that period, I met many, many experts, I spoke to them; I also really listened to them and together we worked on this disposal process. I will give you my personal opinion on that contact with those experts. Although I am going to be one in a long list of professors giving lectures today, I may not be the most scientific of speakers: I will be talking mainly from my experience with the people from STOLA. (author)

  11. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  12. An expert display system and nuclear power plant control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1988-01-01

    An expert display system controls automatically the display of segments on a cathode ray tube's screen to form an image of plant operations. The image consists of an icon of: 1) the process (heat engine cycle), 2) plant control systems, and 3) safety systems. A set of data-driven, forward-chaining computer stored rules control the display of segments. As plant operation changes, measured plant data are processed through the rules, and the results control the deletion and addition of segments to the display format. The icon contains information needed by control rooms operators to monitor plant operations. One example of an expert display is illustrated for the operator's task of monitoring leakage from a safety valve in a steam line of a boiling water reactor (BWR). In another example, the use of an expert display to monitor plant operations during pre-trip, trip, and post-trip operations is discussed as a universal display. The viewpoints and opinions expressed herein are the author's personal ones, and they are not to be interpreted as Nuclear Regulatory Commission criteria, requirements, or guidelines

  13. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-05-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  14. Detecting malingering: a survey of experts' practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slick, Daniel J; Tan, Jing E; Strauss, Esther H; Hultsch, David F

    2004-06-01

    A survey addressing practices of 'expert' neuropsychologists in handling financial compensation claim or personal injury litigation cases was carried out. Potential participants were identified by publication history. Responses were obtained from 24 out of the 39 neuropsychologists who were surveyed. Approximately 79% of the respondents reported using at least one specialized technique for detecting malingering in every litigant assessment. Half stated that they always give specialized tests at the beginning of the assessment. The Rey 15-Item test and the Test of Memory Malingering were the most frequently reported measures. Respondents also reported frequent use of 'malingering' indexes from standard neuropsychological tests. Reported base-rates varied, but the majority of respondents indicated that at least 10% of the litigants they assessed in the last year were definitely malingering. Respondents were split on the practice of routinely giving warnings at the outset of assessments that suboptimal performance may be detected. However, when the client's motivational status was suspect, more than half (58.3%) altered their assessment routine at least on some occasions, by encouraging good effort (70.8%) or administering additional SVTs. A minority directly confronted or warned clients (25%), terminated the examination earlier than planned (16.6%), or contacted the referring attorney immediately (29.2%). Respondents almost always stated some opinion regarding indicators of invalidity in written reports (95%). However, 41.7% rarely used the term 'malingering' and 12.5% never used the term. Most respondents (>80%) instead stated that the test results are invalid, inconsistent with the severity of the injury or indicative of exaggeration. Copyright 2003 National Academy of Neuropsychology

  15. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Zaleskiewicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians. However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this

  16. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo , but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

  17. Effects of Groups’ Spatial Segregation on Processes of Opinion Polarization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feliciani, Thomas; Flache, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    We contribute to the literature about processes of opinion formation, investigating theoretically how the spatial segregation of two groups affects opinion polarization as a possible outcome of opinion formation. We focus on two processes of opinion polarization (negative influence and persuasive

  18. A Self-Categorization Explanation for Opinion Consensus Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    The public expression of opinions (and related communicative activities) hinges upon the perception of opinion consensus. Current explanations for opinion consensus perceptions typically focus on egocentric and other biases, rather than functional cognitions. Using self-categorization theory we showed that opinion consensus perceptions flow from…

  19. Information Filtering Based on Users' Negative Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiang; Li, Yang; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2013-05-01

    The process of heat conduction (HC) has recently found application in the information filtering [Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.99, 154301 (2007)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. The classical HC model predicts users' potential interested objects based on their interesting objects regardless to the negative opinions. In terms of the users' rating scores, we present an improved user-based HC (UHC) information model by taking into account users' positive and negative opinions. Firstly, the objects rated by users are divided into positive and negative categories, then the predicted interesting and dislike object lists are generated by the UHC model. Finally, the recommendation lists are constructed by filtering out the dislike objects from the interesting lists. By implementing the new model based on nine similarity measures, the experimental results for MovieLens and Netflix datasets show that the new model considering negative opinions could greatly enhance the accuracy, measured by the average ranking score, from 0.049 to 0.036 for Netflix and from 0.1025 to 0.0570 for Movielens dataset, reduced by 26.53% and 44.39%, respectively. Since users prefer to give positive ratings rather than negative ones, the negative opinions contain much more information than the positive ones, the negative opinions, therefore, are very important for understanding users' online collective behaviors and improving the performance of HC model.

  20. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  1. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  2. Public opinion on water reuse options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruvold, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    Public policy on waste water reuse options must be informed by public opinion because it is the public who must pay the cost of developing the option and who will be served by the option in the future. For public policy on reuse, guidance for innovative reuse is not as simple as first believed. It seems that public opinion regarding actual community reuse options is affected by the linkage of several factors, including water conservation, health protection, treatment and distribution costs, and environmental enhancement. Probability sampling was used in 7 studies to select respondents who were queried regarding their opinions on various reclaimed water uses such as ranging from cooling tower water to full domestic use. These 7 are briefly reviewed

  3. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  4. Expert Systems in Government Administration

    OpenAIRE

    Weintraub, Joseph

    1989-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence is solving more and more real world problems, but penetration into the complexities of government administration has been minimal. The author suggests that combining expert system technology with conventional procedural computer systems can lead to substantial efficiencies. Business rules can be removed from business-oriented computer systems and stored in a separate but integrated knowledge base, where maintenance will be centralized. Fourteen specific practical appli...

  5. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  6. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  7. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  9. Determination of student opinions in augmented reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huseyin Bicen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of the new technology has changed classroom teaching methods and tools in a positive way. This study investigated the classroom learning with augmented reality and the impact of student opinions. 97 volunteer undergraduate students took part in this study. Results included data in the form of frequencies, percentages and descriptive statistics. The results show that, with gamification methods, augmented reality content affected students’ opinions in a positive way. When QR codes are used in the classroom, students feel independent from classroom materials and can access various resources. Moreover, students think that, when augmented reality in the classroom is used, education is more enjoyable.

  10. Forming of political opinion and decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, K.

    1980-01-01

    Taking the SNR-300 reactor in Kalkar as an example, the process of forming of political opinion and decision is reconstructed in order to get a picture of typical consensus- and conflict patterns in the discussion of safety problems. On this basis, it should be possible to derive a freedom of action for the political and administrative managing of safety matters by means of feed back with social groups. As a crucial point the aspects concerning the steps of the forming of political opinion and decision are examined. (DG) [de

  11. Analysing Customer Opinions with Text Mining Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consoli, Domenico

    2009-08-01

    Knowing what the customer thinks of a particular product/service helps top management to introduce improvements in processes and products, thus differentiating the company from their competitors and gain competitive advantages. The customers, with their preferences, determine the success or failure of a company. In order to know opinions of the customers we can use technologies available from the web 2.0 (blog, wiki, forums, chat, social networking, social commerce). From these web sites, useful information must be extracted, for strategic purposes, using techniques of sentiment analysis or opinion mining.

  12. The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Steven

    This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

  13. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  14. Acquisition of Expert/Non-Expert Vocabulary from Reformulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.

  15. A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

  16. IRSN 2011 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on nuclear and radiological risks. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (the main concerns in the present society and with respect to the environment, how science is considered). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (who should control a hazardous installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist bodies). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 33 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence in authorities, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of 33 situations and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear issue (nuclear risk, ability and credibility of nuclear actors, the Chernobyl accident, radioactive wastes, demand of information on the nuclear risk).

  17. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  18. Psychiatric Opinion and Homosexuality: A Short Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, R. F.; And Others

    1975-01-01

    In a survey of opinion among 100 psychiatrists and 93 trainees in Australia, the majority endorsed the view either that "homosexuality is a developmental anomaly not necessarily or commonly associated with neurotic symptoms" or that "homosexuality is a normal variant like left-handedness." (Author)

  19. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry's practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible

  20. FY16 Brazil Country Opinion Survey Report

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2016-01-01

    The Country Opinion Survey in Brazil assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Brazil perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Brazil on 1) their views regarding the general environment in Bra...

  1. Polling and public opinion: a Canadian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Butler, Peter Marshall

    2007-01-01

    ..., advertising, and government policy. Using such controversial issues such as free trade, health care, same-sex marriage, and national security, Butler argues that popular opinion on such hot-button topics as these can be guided and changed according to how polls are interpreted for and presented to the public. As well as analysing the impact of po...

  2. Determination of Student Opinions in Augmented Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bicen, Huseyin; Bal, Erkan

    2016-01-01

    The rapid development of the new technology has changed classroom teaching methods and tools in a positive way. This study investigated the classroom learning with augmented reality and the impact of student opinions. 97 volunteer undergraduate students took part in this study. Results included data in the form of frequencies, percentages and…

  3. Students and Instructors Opinions about Piano Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilic, Deniz Beste Çevik

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the opinions of the students and piano instructors in the Turkish Education Faculties' Fine Arts Instruction Departments' music instruction programs about piano instruction. The study data were collected using a questionnaire administered to the piano instructors and the students who took lessons from them. The study results…

  4. Farmers' Opinions about Third-Wave Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasley, Paul; Bultena, Gordon

    The opinions of 1,585 Iowa farmers about 8 emergent agricultural technologies (energy production from feed grains and oils; energy production from livestock waste; genetic engineering research on plants, livestock, and humans; robotics for on-farm use; confinement livestock facilities; and personal computers for farm families) were found to be…

  5. survey of opinions in a paediatric department

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-05-04

    May 4, 1991 ... Doctors working at 3 teaching hospitals of the University of the Witwatersrand were .... study. It can therefore be assumed that the opinions put forth were largely .... and will, it is hoped, provide some food for thought for other departments. ... Puhlic Health 'Service guidelioes for counselliog and antibody ...

  6. Reliability of the Suicide Opinion Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, James R.; DeShon, Richard P.

    The lack of systematic psychometric information on the Suicide Opinion Questionnaire (SOQ) was addressed by investigating the factor structure and reliability of the eight-factor clinical scale model (mental illness, cry for help, right to die, religion, impulsivity, normality, aggression, and moral evil), developed for interpreting responses to…

  7. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, B.

    1991-12-31

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry`s practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  8. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry's practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  9. Opinion about nuclear energy and social evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demuth, Gerard; Millat, J.F.

    1982-01-01

    The authors study people's attitudes regarding social evolution in French contemporary society. In this field, they analyze public opinion trends about nuclear energy. Taking into account these basic datas, they put forward some proposals that could lead to a better information and communication about nuclear energy [fr

  10. 19 CFR 210.79 - Advisory opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Advisory opinions. 210.79 Section 210.79 Customs Duties UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION INVESTIGATIONS OF UNFAIR PRACTICES IN IMPORT TRADE... of the Tariff Act of 1930, would be in the public interest, and would benefit consumers and...

  11. Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)

    2016-03-11

    Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.

  12. FY15 Djibouti Country Opinion Survey Report

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2015-01-01

    The Country Opinion Survey in Djibouti assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Djibouti perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Djibouti on 1) their views regarding the general environment ...

  13. FY16 Honduras Country Opinion Survey Report

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2016-01-01

    The Country Opinion Survey in Honduras assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Honduras perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Honduras on 1) their views regarding the general environment ...

  14. FACTORS INFLUENCING AUDITORS' GOING CONCERN OPINION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasnah Haron

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of our study is to provide evidence the practically consideration of auditor judgement on going concern opinion. By using quasi experimental, we found strong evidence that auditors' judgement is affected by financial indicators, evidence, and disclosure. We have another finding that consensus among auditors' judgement and the interaction effects between the three independent variables is significant.

  15. Breast Imaging Second Opinions Impact Surgical Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spivey, Tara Lynn; Carlson, Kjirsten Ayn; Janssen, Imke; Witt, Thomas R; Jokich, Peter; Madrigrano, Andrea

    2015-07-01

    Breast surgeons often see women for second opinions for abnormalities found on breast imaging. For second opinions, these images are submitted for review and interpretation by dedicated breast imagers. This study evaluated the conformity of results among interpretation of imaging submitted from outside hospitals both from tertiary care centers, as well as community programs, in an attempt to evaluate the utility of this practice for the sake of clinical management and resource utilization. A retrospective chart review was conducted on all breast patients that submitted outside imaging films for the years 2011 to 2013 at Rush University Medical Center (RUMC). The radiologic diagnosis and each patient's proposed management plan was collected and evaluated for concordance between the outside institutions and RUMC. A total of 380 patients who presented for second opinions with an interpretation of outside exams were evaluated. In 47.4 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 42.4-52.4] of cases there was distinct variance in radiologic impression. For 53.5 % (95 % CI 48.4-58.5) of patients, there was a change in recommended management plan, which included recommendations for either additional imaging or need for additional biopsy. In total, this changed the overall surgical management in 27.1 % (95 % CI 22.8-31.9) of cases. In six patients, the reinterpretation of outside imaging detected new malignancies not previously identified. Overall, 83.7 % (95 % CI 79.7-87.1) of patients who submitted imaging from outside institutions chose to complete the remainder of their treatment at RUMC. The practice of second opinion review changed overall definitive management at our specialty center in more than one in four cases. In addition, the review identified six previously unrecognized malignancies. Given this data, the practice of second opinions and interpretation of outside exams should continue despite the additional resources required.

  16. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  17. Expert Oracle RAC 12c

    CERN Document Server

    Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo

  18. Expert Oracle GoldenGate

    CERN Document Server

    Prusinski, Ben; Chung, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Expert Oracle GoldenGate is a hands-on guide to creating and managing complex data replication environments using the latest in database replication technology from Oracle. GoldenGate is the future in replication technology from Oracle, and aims to be best-of-breed. GoldenGate supports homogeneous replication between Oracle databases. It supports heterogeneous replication involving other brands such as Microsoft SQL Server and IBM DB2 Universal Server. GoldenGate is high-speed, bidirectional, highly-parallelized, and makes only a light impact on the performance of databases involved in replica

  19. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  20. Consumer versus expert hazard identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

  1. 'Quicksand' of public opinion - trust in nuclear after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, Adam; Maly, Stanislav; Palecek, Milos

    2012-01-01

    The following public opinion surveys are described: public opinion on nuclear power plants by the end of 2010; first public opinion polls after Fukushima in the US, UK and France; and public opinion and the future of nuclear in Japan. The following issues are discussed: Has nuclear any perspective after Fukushima? Will public opinion change after the Fukushima accident like it did after the TMI event? Will public opinion change after the Fukushima accident like it did after the oil spill accident in the Gulf of Mexico? In conclusion the new approaches to the fight for public confidence after Fukushima are described. (orig.)

  2. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  3. On the use of expert judgments to estimate the pressure increment in the Sequoyah containment at vessel breach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhibber, S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

    1994-01-01

    The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts' beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence

  4. Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

  5. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  6. Expert systems in process control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittig, T.

    1987-01-01

    To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

  7. Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheroghe Popescu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

  8. [Ophthalmological opinions for liability affairs material damage (Part I) (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burggraf, H

    1979-02-01

    German law abides anyone reponsible for the damage he or she has caused to another person's property or corporal integrity. This includes all medical costs directed towards the restitution of health as well as economical damage in direct consequence of the corporal damage. An ophthalmological expert is to state his opinion therefore in accordance with the specific conditions of every individual case and not just according to general charts. Financial compensation is only granted for the actual results of damage inquestion. Prior damage and disability have to be remarked but not to justify a financial compensation. The question of smart-money is dealt with in Part II.

  9. Scientific Opinion on the re-evaluation of carnauba wax (E 903) as a food additive

    OpenAIRE

    EFSA Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS)

    2012-01-01

    The Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) delivers a scientific opinion re-evaluating the safety of carnauba wax (E 903). Carnauba wax (E 903) is authorised in the EU as food additive as glazing agent. It has been evaluated by the Scientific Committee on Food (SCF) and by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) who allocated an Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 7 mg/kg bw/day. The SCF did not establish an ADI but considered the use of ca...

  10. Expert system validation in prolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  11. Content validation of the 'Mosaic of Opinions About Abortion' (Mosai).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacique, Denis Barbosa; Passini Junior, Renato; Osis, Maria José Martins Duarte

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to develop and validate the contents of the Mosaico de Opiniões Sobre o Aborto Induzido (Mosai), a structured questionnaire intended to be used as a tool to collect information about the views of health professionals about the morality of abortion. The contents of the first version of the questionnaire was developed based on the technique of thematic content analysis of books, articles, films, websites and newspapers reporting cases of abortion and arguing about their practice. The Mosai was composed of 6 moral dilemmas (vignettes) related to induced abortion, whose outcomes should be chosen by the respondents and could be justified by the classification of 15 patterns of arguments about the morality of abortion. In order to validate its contents, the questionnaire was submitted to the scrutiny of a panel of 12 experts, an intentional sample consisted of doctors, lawyers, ethicists, sociologists, nurses and statisticians, who evaluated the criteria of clarity of writing, relevance, appropriateness to sample and suitability to the fields. These scores were analyzed by the method of concordance rate, while the free comments were analyzed using the analysis technique content. All the moral dilemmas and arguments were considered valid according to the rate of agreement, however, some comments led to the exclusion of a dilemma about emergency contraception, among other changes. The content of Mosai was considered valid to serve as a tool to collect the opinions of healthcare professionals regarding the morality of abortion. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  12. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  13. [The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojer, Joanna

    2011-01-01

    The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

  14. A Web-Based Rice Plant Expert System Using Rule-Based Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Rice plants can be attacked by various kinds of diseases which are possible to be determined from their symptoms. However, it is to recognize that to find out the exact type of disease, an agricultural expert’s opinion is needed, meanwhile the numbers of agricultural experts are limited and there are too many problems to be solved at the same time. This makes a system with a capability as an expert is required. This system must contain the knowledge of the diseases and symptom of rice plants as an agricultural expert has to have. This research designs a web-based expert system using rule-based reasoning. The rule are modified from the method of forward chaining inference and backward chaining in order to to help farmers in the rice plant disease diagnosis. The web-based rice plants disease diagnosis expert system has the advantages to access and use easily. With web-based features inside, it is expected that the farmer can accesse the expert system everywhere to overcome the problem to diagnose rice diseases.

  15. Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

  16. Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes: a Delphi survey from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaser, Jeremie; Cornuz, Jacques

    2015-04-15

    In some countries, nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are considered a consumer product without specific regulations. In others (eg, Switzerland), the sale of e-cigarettes containing nicotine is forbidden, despite the eagerness of many smokers to obtain them. As scientific data about efficacy and long-term safety of these products are scarce, tobacco control experts are divided on how to regulate them. In order to gain consensus among experts to provide recommendations to health authorities, we performed a national consensus study. We used a Delphi method with electronic questionnaires to bring together the opinion of Swiss experts on e-cigarettes. 40 Swiss experts from across the country. We measured the degree of consensus between experts on recommendations regarding regulation, sale, use of and general opinion about e-cigarettes containing nicotine. New recommendations and statements were added following the experts' answers and comments. There was consensus that e-cigarettes containing nicotine should be made available, but only under specific conditions. Sale should be restricted to adults, using quality standards, a maximum level of nicotine and with an accompanying list of authorised ingredients. Advertisement should be restricted and use in public places should be forbidden. These recommendations encompass three principles: (1) the reality principle, as the product is already on the market; (2) the prevention principle, as e-cigarettes provide an alternative to tobacco for actual smokers, and (3) the precautionary principle, to protect minors and non-smokers, since long-term effects are not yet known. Swiss authorities should design specific regulations to sell nicotine-containing e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. IRSN 2014 opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2014-06-01

    A first and synthetic part of this report comments the most remarkable results of the opinion survey. It first addresses results related to a context of economic crisis (importance of the economic crisis and unemployment as major concerns for French people, environmental concerns) and then analyzes the different aspects of the nuclear risk, from the accident to nuclear safety: strong fears of a nuclear accident, Fukushima and Chernobyl are immediately present in people's mind, concerns about nuclear are also related to the environment and health, the actual benefit of nuclear is an economic one, nuclear safety is a major challenge on which French people doubt, French people wish a citizen look on nuclear safety, the opinion of French people on nuclear worsened in 2013. Then, this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to 3 aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: expectations in terms of nuclear risk management, fear of a serious accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, skill and credibility of interveners. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

  18. Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

  19. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  20. Polish media and public opinion on NPP Mochovce commissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latek, Stanislaw

    1999-01-01

    The so called 'Mochovce Problem' was one of the major topics in Polish media in the period from May to July 1998. The nuclear power plant commissioning caused an unexpectedly strong reaction, especially in the newspapers, slightly less so in electronic media. Faced with clearly hostile media reaction to Mochovce NPP, the National Atomic Energy Agency representatives, together with atomic and nuclear experts, undertook to change these attitudes. In numerous interviews, letters to the editors and talks with journalists, they attempted to correct the mistakes, explain the true safety situation in the nuclear power plant, by whom it was constructed, who supervised and tested the systems and so on. The completion of Mochovce NPP construction improved significantly the electricity balance in Slovakia, thus decreasing the pressure for continuing the operation of older Bohunice V1 units beyond their design lifetime. For this reason, as well as in view of striving for improvement in environmental factors beyond Polish southern border, especially after Kyoto/97 decisions on greenhouse gases emissions, the public opinion in Poland should support the Mochovce NPP construction. In 1996 Poland has signed with Slovakia a bilateral inter-governmental agreement on the prompt notification on nuclear accidents and on the cooperation in the nuclear safety and radiological protection matters. On the basis of this agreement the experts from Polish National Atomic Energy Agency are in perpetual contact with Slovakian Nuclear Regulatory Body and in each and every moment can obtain full and comprehensive information on the plant parameters iportant for nuclear safety. The experts explanations, together with the NAEA top management visit to the plant itself, brought some results. The media became less aggressive, and Polish public and authorities - contrary to the Austrians - do not protest loudly against the commissioning of this newest European NPP. Now, in December 1998, the tune of

  1. Application of Delphi expert panel in joint venture projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adnan, H.; Rosman, M. R.; Rashid, Z. Z. Ahmad; Mohamad Yusuwan, N.; Bakhary, N. A.

    2018-02-01

    This study was conducted with the aim to identify the application of the Delphi Technique in validating findings obtained from questionnaire surveys and interviews done in- depth on the subject of joint venture projects in Malaysia. The Delphi technique aims to achieve a consensus of opinion amongst expert panellist that were selected on the primary factors in JV projects. To achieve research objectives, a progressive series of questions was designed where a selected panel of expert to confirm and validate the final findings. The rationale, benefits, limitations and recommendations for the use of Delphi were given in this study. From the literature review done, twenty-one factors were identified as critical factors to the making any joint venture project successful. Detail information from contractors were obtained by using the questionnaire survey method and forty-three in-depth interviews were carried out. Trust between partners, mutual understanding, partner selection criteria, agreement of contract, objective compatibility, conflict, and commitment were confirmed by the Delphi panel to be the critical success factors besides another fourteen factors which were found to be the Failure Reduction Criteria. Delphi techniques has proven to successfully assist in recognising the main factors and would be beneficial in supplementing the success of joint venture arrangements application for construction projects in Malaysia.

  2. Breast carcinoma during pregnancy. International recommendations from an expert meeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loibl, Sibylle; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gwyn, Karin; Ellis, Paul; Blohmer, Jens U; Schlegelberger, Brigitte; Keller, Monika; Harder, Sebastian; Theriault, Richard L; Crivellari, Diana; Klingebiel, Thomas; Louwen, Frank; Kaufmann, Manfred

    2006-01-15

    Breast carcinoma during pregnancy (BCP) is a difficult clinical situation, as it appears to put the health of the mother in conflict with that of the fetus. An international expert meeting was conducted to form guidelines on how to diagnose and treat women with BCP. The goal for treatment of the pregnant woman with breast carcinoma is the same as that of the nonpregnant breast carcinoma patient: local control of disease and prevention of systemic metastases. However, certain treatment modalities need to be modified because of the potential for adverse effects on the fetus. There is evidence to support the safety of anthracycline-based chemotherapy during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy (Oxford Level of Evidence [LOE] 2b). Because of the lack of evidence, the expert opinion was not to recommend the routine use of newer cytotoxic drugs like the taxanes during pregnancy (LOE 5). The recommendations provided should help to reach informed decision making by the patient. The ongoing prospective collection of data on BCP, such as that at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC) and that of the German Breast Group/Breast International Group (GBG/BIG), is necessary to further our knowledge regarding the treatment of this unique group of breast carcinoma patients.

  3. Demographic and Social Factors Influencing Public Opinion on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    macuser

    the pressing need for empirical research into these opinions, to inform and make .... understanding public opinion on the issue of prostitution has critical relevance. For ..... prostitution and presented three options for legal reform in South Africa: ...

  4. Discrepancy and Disliking Do Not Induce Negative Opinion Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Both classical social psychological theories and recent formal models of opinion differentiation and bi-polarization assign a prominent role to negative social influence. Negative influence is defined as shifts away from the opinion of others and hypothesized to be induced by discrepancy with or disliking of the source of influence. There is strong empirical support for the presence of positive social influence (a shift towards the opinion of others), but evidence that large opinion differences or disliking could trigger negative shifts is mixed. We examine positive and negative influence with controlled exposure to opinions of other individuals in one experiment and with opinion exchange in another study. Results confirm that similarities induce attraction, but results do not support that discrepancy or disliking entails negative influence. Instead, our findings suggest a robust positive linear relationship between opinion distance and opinion shifts. PMID:27333160

  5. The importance of opinion leaders in agricultural production among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The importance of opinion leaders in agricultural production among male and ... farmers do not have adequate access to extension services due to, amongst others, the ... In view of these problems, the role of opinion leaders is important and ...

  6. European dental students' opinions on their local anaesthesia education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, H.S.; Tan, L.L.S.; van der Spek, S.J.; Baart, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate students’ opinion about theoretical and clinical training in local anaesthesia at different European dental schools. Materials and Methods: A questionnaire was designed to collect information about local anaesthesia teaching. Students’ opinion was quantified with five-point

  7. Differing professional opinions: 1987 special review panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    In November 1987, the five-member Differing Professional Opinions Special Review Panel established by the Executive Director for Operations of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to review agency policies and procedures for handling differing professional opinions (DPOs) presented its findings and recommendations in NUREG-1290. The issuance of that report completed the first task of the panel's charter. In accordance with Manual chapter 4125, Section L, and the charter of the Special Review Panel, the panel's second task was to ''...review...the DPOs submitted subsequent to the previous Panel's review, in order to identify any employee whose DPO made a significant contribution to the Agency or to the public safety but who has not yet been recognized for such contribution.'' This Addendum provides the findings of that review

  8. Employee benefits managers' opinions about addiction treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Bentson H; Lierman, Walter K; Penner, Norman R; McCamant, Lynn E; Zani, Brigid G

    2003-01-01

    Employee benefits managers arrange addictive disease treatment insurance coverage for the majority of people in the United States but little is known about these decision-makers. Managers were surveyed to learn their opinions about addiction treatment. Subjects were 131 people (61 percent female, 94 percent white, average age 46, average of 14 years in the human resources field). Managers were asked to rank health benefits (physical health, dental, alcohol-drug, vision, mental health, employee assistance program, and pharmaceuticals) on 15 dimensions. Managers ranked alcohol-drug abuse treatment worst on fiveitems and second to the worst on another four of the 15 dimensions. On the item considered most important by the managers, respondents noted that employees often (2.8) ask for improved physical health benefits but rarely do so for alcohol and drug (4.1) benefits (p < .001). Education of workers and payers will be needed to change opinions about treatment of addictive disorders.

  9. Treatment of severe psoriasis in children: recommendations of an Italian expert group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortina, Anna Belloni; Bardazzi, Federico; Berti, Samantha; Carnevale, Claudia; Di Lernia, Vito; El Hachem, Maya; Neri, Iria; Gelmetti, Carlo Mario; Lora, Viviana; Mazzatenta, Carlo; Milioto, Mirella; Moretta, Gaia; Patrizi, Annalisa; Peris, Ketty; Villani, Alberto

    2017-10-01

    This article provides comprehensive recommendations for the systemic treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis based on evidence obtained from a systematic review of the literature and the consensus opinion of expert dermatologists and pediatricians. For each systemic treatment, the grade of recommendation (A, B, C) based on the treatment's approval by the European Medicines Agency for childhood psoriasis and the experts' opinions is discussed. The grade of recommendation for narrow-band-ultraviolet B phototherapy, cyclosporine, and retinoids is C, while that for methotrexate is C/B. The use of adalimumab, etanercept, and ustekinumab has a grade A recommendation. No conventional systemic treatments are approved for pediatric psoriasis. Adalimumab is approved by the European Medicines Agency as a first-line treatment for severe chronic plaque psoriasis in children (≥ 4 years old) and adolescents. Etanercept and ustekinumab are approved as second-line therapy in children ≥ 6 and ≥ 12 years, respectively. A treatment algorithm as well as practical tools (i.e., tabular summaries of differential diagnoses, treatment mechanism of actions, dosing regimens, control parameters) are provided to assist in therapeutic reasoning and decision-making for individual patients. These treatment recommendations are endorsed by major Italian Pediatric and Dermatology Societies. What is Known: • Guidelines for the treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis are lacking and most traditional systemic treatments are not approved for use in young patients. Although there has been decades of experience with some of the traditional agents such as phototherapy, acitretin, and cyclosporine in children, there are no RCTs on their pediatric use while RCTs investigating new biologic agents have been performed. What is New: • In this manuscript, an Italian multidisciplinary team of experts focused on treatment recommendations for severe forms of psoriasis in children based on an up

  10. Database, expert systems, information retrieval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedele, P.; Grandoni, G.; Mammarella, M.C.

    1989-12-01

    The great debate concerning the Italian high-school reform has induced a ferment of activity among the most interested and sensible of people. This was clearly demonstrated by the course 'Innovazione metodologico-didattica e tecnologie informatiche' organized for the staff of the 'lstituto Professionale L. Einaudi' of Lamezia Terme. The course was an interesting opportunity for discussions and interaction between the world of School and computer technology used in the Research field. This three day course included theoretical and practical lessons, showing computer facilities that could be useful for teaching. During the practical lessons some computer tools were presented from the very simple Electronic Sheets to the more complicated information Retrieval on CD-ROM interactive realizations. The main topics will be discussed later. They are: Modelling, Data Base, Integrated Information Systems, Expert Systems, Information Retrieval. (author)

  11. The useability of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    This talk presents the case that it is the user of an Expert System (ES), and the user alone, who must decide on the acceptability of such a system. Further, the useability of an ES is principally a function of the user interface: if a system takes a long time to learn, it will not be used effectively. Some ES are implemented on computers with command line interfaces. It is shown (via a live demonstration using a computer) that such systems restrict the AI professiona's ability to deliver a system which is satisfactory from the use's viewpoint: the limitations of the computer system will dictate the user interface, independently of the user requirements. Only a computer system with a graphical interface can supply the versatility and functionality required by the user. Examples of graphical interface facilities are given

  12. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  13. Great Explanations: Opinionated Explanations for Recommendation

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad, Khalil; Lawlor, Aonghus; Rafter, Rachael; Smyth, Barry

    2015-01-01

    Explaining recommendations helps users to make better, more satisfying decisions. We describe a novel approach to explanation for recommender systems, one that drives the recommendation process, while at the same time providing the user with useful insights into the reason why items have been chosen and the trade-os they may need to consider when making their choice. We describe this approach in the context ofa case-based recommender system that harnesses opinions mined from user-generated re...

  14. Distributed Time Synchronization Algorithms and Opinion Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manita, Anatoly; Manita, Larisa

    2018-01-01

    We propose new deterministic and stochastic models for synchronization of clocks in nodes of distributed networks. An external accurate time server is used to ensure convergence of the node clocks to the exact time. These systems have much in common with mathematical models of opinion formation in multiagent systems. There is a direct analogy between the time server/node clocks pair in asynchronous networks and the leader/follower pair in the context of social network models.

  15. Opinion Mining in Web 2.0

    OpenAIRE

    Pérez Gallego, Pablo José

    2012-01-01

    During the last years we are assisting to an intense Web transformation process. It is no longer a mere static information repository but a dynamic system in which users have become the main content contributors. They actively participate in sharing their opinions, thoughts and views about products, events and almost anything in social networks, forums, blogs, etc. With the latest advances in mobile technologies, users can actually interact anytime from anywhere; real time info...

  16. The Auditor's Going-Concern Opinion Decision

    OpenAIRE

    Tae G. Ryu; Chul-Young Roh

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we expand on several previous studies related to the materiality judgments and the auditor's propensity to issue a going-concern opinion to financially troubled but non-bankrupt companies. We test the auditor's materiality thresholds by investigating whether there is any significant difference in accuracy among audit firms, especially between Big Six (Five) and non-Big Six (Five) audit firms. Binary logit regression is used to analyze 1,332 firms that were non-bankrupt but fina...

  17. Opinions and attitudes of women towards breastfeeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Bień

    2017-08-01

    Conclusions. The most positive beliefs related to breastfeeding refer to the special relation between an infant and its mother, the belief that breastfeeding is an ideal solution for a baby and the appreciation of its economical aspect. Women are aware of the fact that breastfeeding is a challenge for them. Two main factors influence their opinion: the age of women and the number of births.

  18. Ask the experts how to treat individuals with spatial neglect: a survey study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peii; Pitteri, Marco; Gillen, Glen; Ayyala, Harsha

    2017-07-11

    Spatial neglect (SN) impedes rehabilitation success and leaves long-term consequences. We asked experts to provide their opinions in addressing SN by scenario (ideal vs. reality) and by recovery phase (earliest, acute, subacute, and chronic). Experts were individuals who have assessed or treated patients with SN clinically. This study was conducted using an anonymous survey on the Internet with 189 responders over 3 months. Located in 23 different countries, 127 experts of seven disciplines were included (occupational therapy, physical therapy, nursing, speech and language pathology or therapy, neurology, physical medicine and rehabilitation, and psychology or neuropsychology). Comparing the two scenarios, more treatments were selected in the ideal than in the reality scenario for all recovery phases except for the chronic phase. In both scenarios, (1) more treatments were selected in acute and subacute phases than in earliest or chronic phases, (2) less experienced experts selected diverse treatment options more often, and (3) highly experienced experts were more likely to provide their reasons of treatment selection, suggestions of treatment delivery methods, and other insights. Finally, 83.7% reported obstacles in treating SN. Experts' treatment selections are consistent with current evidence and practice guidelines. Recognizing the limitation of evidence, their opinions may help generate ideas in various topics (e.g., dosing, integrative intervention, and treatment implementation) to be examined in future studies. Implications for Rehabilitation Clinicians with experience in treating people with spatial neglect (i.e., experts as defined in the present study) recognized the limitation of evidence but nonetheless suggested specific treatments by recovery phase. In both the reality and ideal scenarios, experts included visual scanning, active limb activation, and sustained attention training in the top-five selections. Prism adaptation was in the top

  19. Opinion dynamics on an adaptive random network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benczik, I. J.; Benczik, S. Z.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

    2009-04-01

    We revisit the classical model for voter dynamics in a two-party system with two basic modifications. In contrast to the original voter model studied in regular lattices, we implement the opinion formation process in a random network of agents in which interactions are no longer restricted by geographical distance. In addition, we incorporate the rapidly changing nature of the interpersonal relations in the model. At each time step, agents can update their relationships. This update is determined by their own opinion, and by their preference to make connections with individuals sharing the same opinion, or rather with opponents. In this way, the network is built in an adaptive manner, in the sense that its structure is correlated and evolves with the dynamics of the agents. The simplicity of the model allows us to examine several issues analytically. We establish criteria to determine whether consensus or polarization will be the outcome of the dynamics and on what time scales these states will be reached. In finite systems consensus is typical, while in infinite systems a disordered metastable state can emerge and persist for infinitely long time before consensus is reached.

  20. Chefs' opinions of restaurant portion sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condrasky, Marge; Ledikwe, Jenny H; Flood, Julie E; Rolls, Barbara J

    2007-08-01

    The objectives were to determine who establishes restaurant portion sizes and factors that influence these decisions, and to examine chefs' opinions regarding portion size, nutrition information, and weight management. A survey was distributed to chefs to obtain information about who is responsible for determining restaurant portion sizes, factors influencing restaurant portion sizes, what food portion sizes are being served in restaurants, and chefs' opinions regarding nutrition information, health, and body weight. The final sample consisted of 300 chefs attending various culinary meetings. Executive chefs were identified as being primarily responsible for establishing portion sizes served in restaurants. Factors reported to have a strong influence on restaurant portion sizes included presentation of foods, food cost, and customer expectations. While 76% of chefs thought that they served "regular" portions, the actual portions of steak and pasta they reported serving were 2 to 4 times larger than serving sizes recommended by the U.S government. Chefs indicated that they believe that the amount of food served influences how much patrons consume and that large portions are a problem for weight control, but their opinions were mixed regarding whether it is the customer's responsibility to eat an appropriate amount when served a large portion of food. Portion size is a key determinant of energy intake, and the results from this study suggest that cultural norms and economic value strongly influence the determination of restaurant portion sizes. Strategies are needed to encourage chefs to provide and promote portions that are appropriate for customers' energy requirements.