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Sample records for expert opinion steuerreform

  1. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A.; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  2. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  3. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  4. [Expert Opinions in Court: Liability of the Expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiltenwolf, Marcus; Beckmann, Nickolas; Gaidzik, Peter

    2017-12-01

    Experts in criminal, civil and, increasingly, in social court cases have to present their expert opinions in court. This should be regarded not only as a burden, even if this may at times appear superfluous to the expert, perhaps because the discussion is mere repetition of the opinion he has already written, or because the questions appear to be biased against the expert. Nonetheless, the expert is always advised to appear calm and objective during the interrogation by judges and parties or participants and their legal representatives, and should not allow himself or herself to be provoked by questioning. Furthermore, it may be necessary to correct the written expert statement in the course of the interrogation, but this can be a sign of a truly competent medical expert. The expert consulted can be held liable for adverse health effects resulting from the interrogation and investigation, as well as for deliberate or grossly faulty reports. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  5. Experts' Opinion: A Powerful Evaluation Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevo, David

    Experts' opinion is proposed as a valuable evaluation tool. Advantages of this method include the relative cost effectiveness when compared with other data collection methods. It is a time-saving method important in formative evaluation when a decision must be made concerning implementation of a course of action. When experts are carefully…

  6. Expert opinions on SME Transfers Hazards for policymakers and entrepreneurs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lex van Teeffelen

    2009-01-01

    The EU and national governments rely on expert panels and opinions for their policies (EU, 2003; EU, 2006a; EU, 2006b) on SME ownership transfers. Also entrepreneurs depend on expert opinions and advice. We know from expert studies that expert judgment may lead to confusion and conflicting results.

  7. Objectification of injuries and consequences in expert medical opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miran Vrabl

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Only unequivocal evidence confirming the total extent of injury. Biomechanical analysis, objectifications of permanent consequences after injury and objectification, whether such injuries influence life activities of an injured person, should be the basics for preparation of expert medical opinion. To make a necessary distinction from the previous injuries or illnesses that might have influence on current health state of a patient and its treatment, analysis of all medical records of a certain injured person is needed. Therefore this are inevitable steps in preparation of an expert medical opinion. In cases when medical opinion should explain disability of a patient as a consequence of a certain contractual relationship, the contract should be taken into consideration when such opinions is prepared.Methods: 500 opinions have been retrospectively analysed, selected at random out of 3452 opinions, submitted in claims for damages at Zavarovalnica Maribor, d. d., in the period from January 2001 until January 2006. Thirteen typical data have been analysed and evaluated on the basis of objective evidences.Results: On the basis of analyses it has been established that there is a great difference between principles of objectification and the data in analysed opinions. It has been noticed the most obvious deviation in biomechanical analysis (95 %, in records of decreased life activities (90 %, in all medical records of an injured person (65 % and in objectification of permanent consequences after injuries (55 %.Conclusions: As results of analysis demonstrate, there are significant differences in preparations of expert and medical opinions in Slovenia, particularly when basic principles are analysed that need to be considered when writing such opinions. Irrational avoidance of basic principle of objectification, nomination of experts without licence in certain fields of medicine, avoidance of objectification of subjective statements of injured

  8. 42 CFR 411.377 - Expert opinions from outside sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expert opinions from outside sources. 411.377... SERVICES MEDICARE PROGRAM EXCLUSIONS FROM MEDICARE AND LIMITATIONS ON MEDICARE PAYMENT Financial... from outside sources. (a) CMS may request expert advice from qualified sources if CMS believes that the...

  9. Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billari, F C; Graziani, R; Melilli, E

    2012-04-01

    The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office.

  10. Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

    2011-01-01

    treatment of chronic TTH. Mirtazapine and venlafaxine are second-choice drugs. EXPERT OPINION: There is an urgent need for more research in nonpharmacological as well as pharmacological treatment possibilities of TTH. Future studies should examine the relative efficacy of the various treatment modalities...

  11. Expert opinion regarding environmental enrichment materials for pigs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this article is to report on the expert opinion regarding the provision of environmental enrichment for pigs. A questionnaire was sent to 53 pig welfare scientists who were asked to specify which enrichment materials they considered sufficient to ensure pig welfare; 68% responded. 89%

  12. [Quality of anesthesiological expert opinion in medical claims cases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachenberg, T; Neu, J; Werner, S; Wiedemann, D; Schaffartzik, W

    2012-06-01

    Expert opinions have an important place for expert testimony in medical disputes. The report should contain a summary about facts and causality between the damage and the medical treatment in question as well as describe the current medical standard. The fulfillment of scientific criteria was investigated in 179 anesthesiological expert opinions from 150 arbitration cases. Anesthesiological expert reports (2005-2007) of the Arbitration Board of the North German Medical Associations were analyzed in terms of structure, general form of assessment and scientific substantiation of statements. Patient damage was confirmed in 76%, treatment failure in 29% and negligent malpractice in 17% of the reports. In 78% of the reports the facts were presented correctly and in 64% the question was answered whether the incident would have occurred even during adequate and professional action. Conclusive statements about the causality between the damage and the medical treatment in question were available only in 60% of the reports. The study findings suggest that anesthesia expert reports present a high incidence of non-scientific claims. The development of guidelines for expert witnesses by the medical societies is urgently recommended.

  13. [Drafting expert opinion reports in medical liability processes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulsenheimer, K

    2011-12-01

    In a medical liability process a medical expert takes on an outstanding position. He is the one process participant who preprograms the decision of the judge. However, he does not as such have an independent investigative competence and must understand his role as being an accessory to the judge. In view of this key role, the necessary expert competence and a basic legal knowledge, adequate preparation for the assignment and a meticulous study of the case file are indispensible. According to § 839 paragraph 1 of the German Civil Code (Bürgerliches Gesetzbuch, BGB) an expert witness nominated by a court of law is liable to compensate damages if he writes an incorrect expert opinion either deliberately or due to gross negligence. The expert witness must also be objective and unprejudiced towards the parties involved or the accused/defendant. Civil processes and criminal proceedings both have legal peculiarities which the expert witness must bear in mind. The foundation of the function as an expert witness in a civil process is the order of the court to take evidence which the expert must adhere to. In this case the parties must be considered as being equal before the law. In contrast the procedure in criminal processes follows the principle of official investigation and the absolute principle of in dubio pro reo. From this it follows that the evidence of causality must be proven with a probability close to certainty. Advice for the construction of expert opinion statements can be found in this article.

  14. What makes a Salmonella strain epidemic? An expert opinion workshop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, A; Hill, A; Woodward, M J

    2011-01-29

    An expert opinion workshop was held on the subject of the cause, identification and control of new and emerging Salmonella strains. Experts were invited to complete questionnaires, contribute to structured discussions and take part in cluster group tasks. Outputs of the workshop included that, with current surveillance methods, it might take up to 2.5 years from the first introduction of a new strain into the UK livestock population to its identification as a human epidemic strain. In order to reduce the time to detection and provide more effective control options, several recommendations were made, including better back-tracing of human cases to their source, which would require more effective communication between those responsible for human and veterinary surveillance.

  15. Epilepsy treatment in adults and adolescents: Expert opinion, 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Jerry J; Whitlock, Julia B; Chimato, Nicole; Vargas, Emily; Karceski, Steven C; Frank, Ryan D

    2017-04-01

    There are over twenty anti-seizure medications and anti-seizure devices available commercially in the United States. The multitude of treatment options for seizures can present a challenge to clinicians, especially those who are not subspecialists in the epilepsy field. Many clinical questions are not adequately answered in double-blind randomized controlled studies. In the presence of a knowledge gap, many clinicians consult a respected colleague with acknowledged expertise in the field. Our survey was designed to provide expert opinions on the treatment of epilepsy in adults and adolescents. We surveyed a group of 42 physicians across the United States who are considered experts based on publication record in the field of epilepsy, or a leadership role in a National Association of Epilepsy Centers comprehensive epilepsy program. The survey consisted of 43 multiple-part patient scenario questions and was administered online using Redcap software. The experts provided their opinion on 1126 treatment options based on a modified Rand 9-point scale. The patient scenarios focused on genetically-mediated generalized epilepsy and focal epilepsy. The scenarios first focused on overall treatment strategy and then on specific pharmacotherapies. Other questions focused on treatment of specific patient populations (pregnancy, the elderly, patients with brain tumors, and post organ transplant patients), epilepsy patients with comorbidities (renal and hepatic disease, depression), and how to combine medications after failure of monotherapy. Statistical analysis of data used the expert consensus method. Valproate was considered a drug of choice in all genetically-mediated generalized epilepsies, except in the population of women of child-bearing age. Ethosuximide was a drug of choice in patient with absence seizures, and levetiracetam was a drug of choice in patients with genetic generalized tonic-clonic seizures and myoclonic seizures. Lamotrigine, levetiracetam and

  16. Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

    2011-01-01

    A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

  17. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence: the precautionary principle applied to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops.

  18. Expert judgment versus public opinion : evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest

    OpenAIRE

    Haan, Marco; Dijkstra, Gerhard; Dijkstra, Peter

    2003-01-01

    For centuries, there have been discussions as to whether only experts can judge the quality of cultural output, or whether the taste of the public also has merit. This paper tries to resolve that question empirically, using national finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. We show that experts are better judges of quality: the outcome of finals judged by experts is less sensitive to factors unrelated to quality than the outcome of finals judged by public opinion. Yet, experts are not perfect: t...

  19. Avoiding ipse dixit mislabeling: post-Daubert approaches to expert clinical opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutheil, Thomas G; Bursztajn, Harold

    2003-01-01

    Recent Supreme Court decisions emphasize the need to regulate the admissibility of expert testimony by means of standards that require opinions to go beyond ipse dixit--that is, that are based on more than the fact that the expert said it. The authors discuss subtextual themes underlying this issue and suggest approaches to attaining expert clinical opinions that reduce the likelihood of being mislabeled as ipse dixit contributions. The approach involves providing substantiation of testimony by offering a reliable methodologic basis for communicating the relevant opinion in a thoughtful and intellectually rigorous manner. A model is offered, emphasizing a process approach to opinion formulation and reformulation prior to deposition and trial. This approach addresses not only the Supreme Court's current focus on moving expert opinion beyond ipse dixit, but also such concerns as possible distortions of an expert opinion in the adversarial process. Since judicial determinations may vary depending on many factors, however, even the most careful process of opinion formulation cannot guarantee admissibility. The article assumes a general familiarity among forensic readers with the Federal Rules of Evidence and the recent series of Supreme Court decisions in this area.

  20. Oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism: Expert opinion versus current practice Combined results of a systematic review, expert panel opinion and an international survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, F. A.; Schreiber, K.; Stach, K.; Ageno, W.; Middeldorp, S.; Eichinger, S.; Delluc, A.; Blondon, M.; Ay, C.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The optimal management of oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is largely unknown. We aimed to elicit expert opinion and compare that to current practice as assessed by a world-wide international web-based survey among physicians.

  1. Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S Deiner

    Full Text Available We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health.

  2. Suitability of ART approach for managing caries lesions in people with disability-Experts' opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molina, G.F.; Faulks, D.; Frencken, J.E.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective. This study aimed to obtain the opinions of experts in Special Care Dentistry (SCD) regarding the suitability of the Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) approach for the treatment of carious lesions in persons with disability. Material and methods. Thirty expert participants

  3. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts; Umweltpolitik. Umweltgutachten 2000 des Rates von Sachverstaendigen fuer Umweltfragen. Schritte ins naechste Jahrtausend. Kurzfassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states. [German] Eines der Schwerpunktthemen des Umweltgutachtens ist die Neuordnung der Energiepolitik. Der Umweltrat haelt die weitere Nutzung der Atomenergie vor allem wegen der Risiken der Entsorgung nicht fuer verantwortbar. Er befuerwortet die Einleitung einer Energiewende. Zur oekologischen Steuerreform werden weiterfuehrende Empfehlungen unterbreitet. An vielen Stellen nimmt der Rat die Umweltpolitik auch kritisch unter die Lupe. Er weist auf den hohen Handlungsbedarf im Naturschutz hin. Eine dauerhafte Trendwende beim Grad der Gefaehrdung heimischer Tier- und Pflanzenarten sei in Deutschland noch nicht erreicht. Der Rat bestaetigt in diesem Zusammenhang die naturschutzpolitische Konzeption der Bundesregierung fuer einen Naturschutz auf der ganzen Flaeche, kombiniert mit einem grossflaechigen Biotopverbundsystem auf 10% der Landesflaeche. Der

  4. Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

  5. Comparing Powerpoint Experts' and University Students' Opinions about Powerpoint Presentations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackiewicz, Jo

    2008-01-01

    Technical communication instructors want to help students, as well as professionals, design effective PowerPoint presentations. Toward this end, I compare the advice of academic and industry experts about effective PowerPoint presentation design to survey responses from university students about slide text, visual elements, animations, and other…

  6. Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V Hampson

    Full Text Available Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa.A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.

  7. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  8. A Survey of Expert Opinion Regarding Rotator Cuff Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, Daniel C; Paxton, E Scott; Williams, Gerald R; Abboud, Joseph A

    2014-07-16

    Many patients with rotator cuff tears have questions for their surgeons regarding the surgical procedure, perioperative management, restrictions, therapy, and ability to work after a rotator cuff repair. The purpose of our study was to determine common clinical practices among experts regarding rotator cuff repair and to assist them in counseling patients. We surveyed 372 members of the American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) and the Association of Clinical Elbow and Shoulder Surgeons (ACESS); 111 members (29.8%) completed all or part of the survey, and 92.8% of the respondents answered every question. A consensus response (>50% agreement) was achieved on 49% (24 of 49) of the questions. Variability in responses likely reflects the fact that clinical practices have evolved over time based on clinical experience. Copyright © 2014 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

  9. Melasma and Post Inflammatory Hyperpigmentation: Management Update and Expert Opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofen, B; Prado, G; Emer, J

    2016-01-01

    Dyschromia is a leading cause for cosmetic consultation, especially in those with diverse skin types (mixture of ethnicities) and with the rise of non-core and untrained physicians performing cosmetic procedures. Melasma and post-inflammatory hyperpigmentation (PIH) account for the majority of cases and are characterized by pigmented macules and patches distributed symmetrically in sun-exposed areas of the forehead, cheeks, and chin in melasma, and irregularly in areas of inflammation or an inciting traumatic event with PIH. Treatment is challenging and focused on a variety of mechanisms to stop, hinder, and/or prevent steps in the pigment production (melanocytic hyperactivity) process, breaking down deposited pigment for internal removal or external release, exfoliating cells to enhance turnover, and decreasing inflammation. Topical lightening therapy in combination with sun protection is essential for potential improvement. The most commonly prescribed and researched topical lightening agents are hydroquinone (HQ), azelaic acid (AzA), and retinoids - although only HQ and a triple combination cream (Tri-Luma®; fluocinolone acetonide 0.01%, HQ 4%, tretinoin 0.05%) are US FDA-approved for "bleaching of hyperpigmented skin" (HQ) and "melasma" (Tri-Luma®). Numerous non-HQ brightening/lightening agents, including antioxidant and botanical cosmeceuticals, have recently flooded the market with improvements that claim less irritant potential, as well as avoiding the stigmata associated with HQ agents such as carcinogenesis and cutaneous ochronosis. Combining topical therapy with procedures such as chemical peels, intense pulsed light (IPL), fractional non-ablative lasers or radiofrequency, pigment lasers (microsecond, picosecond, Q-switched), and microneedling, enhances results. With proper treatment, melasma can be controlled, improved, and maintained; alternatively, PIH can be cured in most cases. Herein, we review treatments for both conditions and provide an opinion

  10. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Kazemi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan.  Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

  11. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1Maryam Kazemi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan. Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

  12. Buprenorphine dosing choices in specific populations: review of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maremmani, Icro; Rolland, Benjamin; Somaini, Lorenzo; Roncero, Carlos; Reimer, Jens; Wright, Nat; Littlewood, Richard; Krajci, Peter; Alho, Hannu; D'Agnone, Oscar; Simon, Nicolas

    2016-09-01

    Treatment of opioid dependence with buprenorphine improves outcomes. Typical dosing ranges for all patients from clinical evidence and as defined in the product information are wide. For specific groups with complex clinical scenarios, there is no clear consensus on dosing choices to achieve best possible outcomes. The doses of buprenorphine used in 6 European countries was reviewed. A review of published evidence supported rapid induction with buprenorphine and the benefits of higher doses but did not identify clearly useful guidance on dosing choices for groups with complex clinical scenarios. An expert group of physicians with experience in addiction care participated in a discussion meeting to share clinical practice experience and develop a consensus on dosing choices. There was general agreement that treatment outcomes can be improved by optimising buprenorphine doses in specific subgroups. Specific groups in whom buprenorphine doses may be too low and who could have better outcomes with optimised dosing were identified on the basis of clinical practice experience. These groups include people with severe addiction, high tolerance to opioids, and psychiatric comorbidities. In these groups it is recommended to review dosing choices to ensure buprenorphine dosing is sufficient.

  13. Expert opinion on advanced techniques for hemostasis in liver surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manas, D M; Figueras, J; Azoulay, D; Garcia Valdecasas, J C; French, J; Dixon, E; O'Rourke, N; Grovale, N; Mazzaferro, V

    2016-10-01

    Reduction of perioperative blood loss and intraoperative transfusion are two major factors associated with improving outcomes in liver surgery. There is currently no consensus as to the best technique to achieve this. An international Panel of Experts (EP), made up of hepatobiliary surgeons from well-known high-volume centres was assembled to share their experience with regard to the management of blood loss during liver resection surgery. The process included: a review of the current literature by the panel, a face-to-face meeting and an on-line survey completed by the EP prior to and following the face-to-face meeting, based on predetermined case scenarios. During the meeting the most frequently researched surgical techniques were appraised by the EP in terms of intraoperative blood loss. All EP members agreed that high quality research on the subject was lacking. Following an agreed risk stratification algorithm, the EP concurred with the existing research that a haemostatic device should always be used along with any user preferred surgical instrumentation in both open and laparoscopic liver resection procedures, independently from stratification of bleeding risk. The combined use of Ultrasonic Dissector (UD) and saline-coupled bipolar sealing device (Aquamantys(®)) was the EP preferred technique for both open and laparoscopic surgery. This EP propose the use of a bipolar sealer and UD for the best resection technique and essential equipment to minimise blood loss during liver surgery, stratified according to transfusion risk, in both open and laparoscopic liver resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Theories on possible temporal relationships between sleep bruxism and obstructive sleep apnea events: an expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manfredini, D.; Guarda-Nardini, L.; Marchese-Ragona, R.; Lobbezoo, F.

    2015-01-01

    Background Sleep bruxism (SB) is a term covering different motor phenomena with various risk and etiological factors and potentially different clinical relevance, especially as far as its possible protective role against obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is concerned. The present expert opinion

  15. A Delphi survey on expert opinion on key signs for clinical diagnosis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A Delphi survey on expert opinion on key signs for clinical diagnosis of bovine trypanosomosis, tick-borne diseases and helminthoses. ... For theileriosis, they included lymph node enlargement, pyrexia, age, breed and reduced milk yield. For trypanosomosis, they included, anaemia, weightloss, staring coat, lymph node ...

  16. Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

    2015-01-01

    Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

  17. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions).

  18. Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

    2018-02-01

    Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K; Bailey, Robin L; Keenan, Jeremy D; Solomon, Anthony W; Emerson, Paul M; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M

    2015-08-01

    Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts' opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon's signed-rank statistic. Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher's information. Each individual expert's forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.

  20. Expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third-line...

  1. Key considerations for preventing suicide in older adults: consensus opinions of an expert panel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete; Conwell, Yeates

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The number of older adults is growing rapidly. This fact, combined with the high rates of suicide in later life, indicates that many more older adults will die by their own hands before rigorous trials can be conducted to fully understand the best approaches to prevent late life suicide....... AIMS: To disseminate key considerations for interventions addressing senior suicidal behavior. METHODS: An international expert panel has reviewed and discussed key considerations for interventions against suicide in older adults based on existing evidence, where available, and expert opinion. RESULTS...

  2. The HIT Expert Probability (HEP) Score: a novel pre‐test probability model for heparin‐induced thrombocytopenia based on broad expert opinion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    CUKER, A; AREPALLY, G; CROWTHER, M. A; RICE, L; DATKO, F; HOOK, K; PROPERT, K. J; KUTER, D. J; ORTEL, T. L; KONKLE, B. A; CINES, D. B

    2010-01-01

    .... Objectives:  To develop a pre‐test clinical scoring model for HIT based on broad expert opinion that may be useful in guiding clinical decisions regarding therapy. Patients/methods:  A pre...

  3. Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.; Amza, Abdou; Kadri, Boubacar; Nassirou, Baido; West, Sheila K.; Bailey, Robin L.; Keenan, Jeremy D.; Solomon, Anthony W.; Emerson, Paul M.; Gambhir, Manoj; Lietman, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. Methods The Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic. Findings Regression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts. Interpretation Regression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models. PMID:26302380

  4. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  5. Forecasting the use of electronic health records: an expert opinion approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blavin, Fredric Evan; Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes

    2013-01-01

    To promote the widespread adoption and use of electronic health records (EHRs), in 2011, CMS started making Medicare and Medicaid incentive payments to providers who demonstrate that they are "meaningful users" of certified EHR systems. This paper combines an expert opinion method, a modified Delphi technique, with a technological diffusion framework to create a forecast of the percent of office-based physicians who will become adopters and "meaningful users" of health information technology from 2012 to 2019. The panel consisted of 18 experts from industry, academia, and government who are knowledgeable about the adoption and use of EHRs in office-based settings and are recognized as opinion leaders in their respective professions. Overall, the expert panel projected that primary care physicians in large group practices are more likely to achieve the meaningful use of EHRS relative to primary care physicians in small group practices and all other specialists: the group projected that 65 percent of primary care physicians in large group practices, 45 percent of primary care physicians in small group practices, and 44 percent of all other specialists could achieve meaningful use by 2015. In 2019, these projections increase to 80 percent, 65 percent, and 66 percent for these three groups, respectively. The information from this study is especially valuable when there is a lack of data and a high degree of uncertainty in a new policy environment and could help inform and evaluate government programs, such as the Regional Extension Centers (REC), by providing data from leading experts.

  6. Factors associated with experts' opinions regarding criminal responsibility in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendregt, Marko; Muller, Eline; Nijman, Henk; de Beurs, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    In many jurisdictions, offenders need to have freely chosen to commit their crimes in order to be punishable. A mental defect or disorder may be a reason for diminished or total absence of criminal responsibility and may remove culpability. This study aims to provide an empirically based understanding of the factors on which experts base their judgements concerning criminal responsibility. Clinical, demographic and crime related variables, as well as MMPI-2 profiles, were collected from final reports concerning defendants of serious crime submitted to the observation clinic of the Dutch Ministry of Justice for a criminal responsibility assessment. Criminal responsibility was expressed along a five-point scale corresponding to the Dutch legal practice. Results showed that several variables contributed independently to experts' opinions regarding criminal responsibility: diagnosis (Axis I and II), cultural background, type of weapon used in committing the crime, and whether the defendant committed the crime alone or with others. In contract to jurisdictions involving a sane/insane dichotomy, the Dutch five-point scale of criminal responsibility revealed that Axis II personality disorders turned out to be mostly associated with a diminished responsibility. MMPI-2 scores also turned out to have a small contribution to experts' opinions on criminal responsibility, independently of mere diagnostic variables. These results suggest that experts base their judgements not only on the presence or absence of mental disorders, but also on cultural and crime related characteristics, as well as dimensional information about the defendant's personality and symptomatology. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Drug exposure in register-based research—An expert-opinion based evaluation of methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taipale, Heidi; Koponen, Marjaana; Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Hartikainen, Sirpa; Ahonen, Riitta; Tiihonen, Jari

    2017-01-01

    Background In register-based pharmacoepidemiological studies, construction of drug exposure periods from drug purchases is a major methodological challenge. Various methods have been applied but their validity is rarely evaluated. Our objective was to conduct an expert-opinion based evaluation of the correctness of drug use periods produced by different methods. Methods Drug use periods were calculated with three fixed methods: time windows, assumption of one Defined Daily Dose (DDD) per day and one tablet per day, and with PRE2DUP that is based on modelling of individual drug purchasing behavior. Expert-opinion based evaluation was conducted with 200 randomly selected purchase histories of warfarin, bisoprolol, simvastatin, risperidone and mirtazapine in the MEDALZ-2005 cohort (28,093 persons with Alzheimer’s disease). Two experts reviewed purchase histories and judged which methods had joined correct purchases and gave correct duration for each of 1000 drug exposure periods. Results The evaluated correctness of drug use periods was 70–94% for PRE2DUP, and depending on grace periods and time window lengths 0–73% for tablet methods, 0–41% for DDD methods and 0–11% for time window methods. The highest rate of evaluated correct solutions for each method class were observed for 1 tablet per day with 180 days grace period (TAB_1_180, 43–73%), and 1 DDD per day with 180 days grace period (1–41%). Time window methods produced at maximum only 11% correct solutions. The best performing fixed method TAB_1_180 reached highest correctness for simvastatin 73% (95% CI 65–81%) whereas 89% (95% CI 84–94%) of PRE2DUP periods were judged as correct. Conclusions This study shows inaccuracy of fixed methods and the urgent need for new data-driven methods. In the expert-opinion based evaluation, the lowest error rates were observed with data-driven method PRE2DUP. PMID:28886089

  8. Expert opinion on detecting and treating depression in palliative care: A Delphi study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hotopf Matthew

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a dearth of data regarding the optimal method of detecting and treating depression in palliative care. This study applied the Delphi method to evaluate expert opinion on choice of screening tool, choice of antidepressant and choice of psychological therapy. The aim was to inform the development of best practice recommendations for the European Palliative Care Research Collaborative clinical practice guideline on managing depression in palliative care. Methods 18 members of an international, multi-professional expert group completed a structured questionnaire in two rounds, rating their agreement with proposed items on a scale from 0-10 and annotating with additional comments. The median and range were calculated to give a statistical average of the experts' ratings. Results There was contention regarding the benefits of screening, with 'routine informal asking' (median 8.5 (0-10 rated more highly than formal screening tools such as the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (median 7.0 (1-10. Mirtazapine (median 9 (7-10 and citalopram (median 9 (5-10 were the considered the best choice of antidepressant and cognitive behavioural therapy (median 9.0 (3-10 the best choice of psychological therapy. Conclusions The range of expert ratings was broad, indicating discordance in the views of experts. Direct comparative data from randomised controlled trials are needed to strengthen the evidence-base and achieve clarity on how best to detect and treat depression in this setting.

  9. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

  10. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Vives-Cases

    Full Text Available Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

  11. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  12. Expert opinions of demographic rates of Argentine black and white tegus in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study.  We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model, which was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates from herpetology experts.  We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter.  Using these distributions, we generated a large sample of matrix models to infer how the tegu population might respond to control efforts.  We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs.  Expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable for conducting an initial assessment of the effort needed to control the invader.  The value of information can be used to focus research in a way that not only helps increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

  13. A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Climatic Drivers of Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su-Mia Akin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is considered to be a significant influence for infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Climatic and non-climatic developments act together resulting in current and future infectious disease risk. This study uses a survey to explore Dutch expert perspectives on climate change induced infectious disease risk. The results show that the experts consider temperature change, precipitation change, humidity change, and climate change induced habitat change to be relatively important for water-related infectious disease risk, vector-borne disease risk excluding zoonoses, and the risk of zoonoses. The climatic drivers are seen as relatively less important for food-related infectious disease risk. The experts rate many non-climatic drivers to be highly important for infectious disease risk. Comparatively, the majority of the non-climatic drivers assessed are seen as more important than climate change drivers. The degree of uncertainty in the future development of climatic drivers is viewed as moderate to high, and for non-climatic drivers mostly as moderate. An analysis of subsamples based on professional backgrounds reveals differences in experts’ opinions for e.g., socio-cultural drivers, and similarities. Diversity and consensus amongst expert perspectives on climate change and infectious diseases can have implications for policy. Further research to uncover and compare prevailing perspectives is necessary.

  14. Health Experts' Opinions about Tobacco Control Activities in Iran: Results from a Delphi Panel of National Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi, Hooman; Hessami, Zahra; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza

    2012-01-01

    Iran signed the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on June 16, 2003 and it was ratified by the parliament and the House of Representatives on November 6, 2005. Finally, it came into force on February 4, 2006. In this study, we aimed to evaluate health experts' opinion about tobacco control activities in Iran. This was a qualitative case study. We used a series of open-ended questionnaires to assess important information regarding Iranian National Tobacco Control law and FCTC implementation. The study population comprised of health experts. Use of this method ensured the validity of questionnaires' contents. The first round of the questionnaire had been pre-tested in a pilot study. The final structure and lay out of questionnaires consisted of three main parts. The first part was designed with 7 multiple choice questions. Participants were able to rank answers from five (the most important) to one (the least important). The second part comprised four questions mainly on National Tobacco Control Program (NTCP) and the final part was about FCTC. Data collection was carried out between May 2010 and May 2011. In the analysis process each interview was considered as a separate case and then compared to other cases to ascertain variations in answers. All 40 members (100%) of the panel completed the entire process. All the participants had a consensus on tobacco control program in Iran. They believed the prevention programs to be important priorities in this regard. Tobacco Company as a governmental organization is believed to be the main barrier against tobacco control activities in Iran, and banning sales of tobacco to minors and controlling its smuggling are important factors for decreasing the supply of tobacco products. It is essential to implement comprehensive tobacco control law in Iran. It is essential to implement comprehensive tobacco control law in Iran that covers all the priorities mentioned above. Considering the chronological aspect of law

  15. Forensic medicine experts' opinion on medico-legal autopsies in hospital deaths: a questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Deepak Herald; Pant, Sadip; Menezes, Ritesh George

    2013-10-01

    Medico-legal autopsy is conducted routinely in some countries and selectively in others in hospital deaths. This study was conducted to evaluate the views of the forensic medicine experts regarding this matter. A questionnaire pro forma was sent to sixty-five forensic medicine experts practicing in different medical institutions all around India. Designations and experiences of the participants were noted by requests in the same questionnaire. Their specific experience in conducting medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths was also requested for. Responses were charted in frequency distribution tables and analyzed using SPSS, version 17.0. One-third of the participants felt that a medico-legal autopsy was necessary in all the hospital death cases as defined in the present study. Ten percent of the participants opined that a medico-legal autopsy was unnecessary in hospital deaths. The majority of the experts mentioned finding the cause of death, followed by finding the manner of death and collecting the evidentiary materials, as the reasons for medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths. Twenty percent of the participants felt that internal findings at autopsy poorly matched with the case records. All the experts agreed that external autopsy findings matched with the hospital case records. Nearly two-third of the participants felt that it was difficult in some cases to interpret the autopsy findings without case records from the hospital where the deceased was treated. Our findings suggest that the exercise of carrying out medico-legal autopsy routinely in every hospital death as evident in the Indian framework is often unnecessary as per the experts' opinion. Autopsy findings in hospital deaths often correlate with hospital case records.

  16. Suitability of ART approach for managing caries lesions in people with disability-Experts' opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Gustavo F; Faulks, Denise; Frencken, Jo E

    2013-11-01

    This study aimed to obtain the opinions of experts in Special Care Dentistry (SCD) regarding the suitability of the Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) approach for the treatment of carious lesions in persons with disability. Thirty expert participants from around the world, joining the SCD Task Force meeting, Education Committee of the International Association of Disability and Oral Health (Antalya, Turkey, 2011), completed a questionnaire survey. Frequency distributions of variables were analysed using Chi-Square test for differences between variables. All respondents reported having full or moderate knowledge of ART (23.3% and 63.3%, respectively) and 66.7% indicated that they felt the technique was useful for this population. However, only 50% of respondents used the technique regularly in their practice and five (16.7%) replied that they would never use it, even if a favourable evidence base for ART use in this population became available. The barriers to the introduction of ART to SCD are discussed and the need for training and further research highlighted. Barriers to the implementation of ART in practice were placement of the restoration under difficult conditions and the dentist's pre-conception of the technique as being 'lower quality dentistry'. Experts suggested that some of these barriers might be overcome by improving the evidence base in favour of the technique, specifically in the population with disability.

  17. The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2013-10-15

    The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Expert Opinions on Managing Fertility and Pregnancy in Patients With Mucopolysaccharidosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona Stewart MB, BS

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS disorders are rare genetic diseases caused by deficiencies in lysosomal enzymes involved in the degradation of glycosaminoglycans, leading to pulmonary, cardiac and neurological dysfunctions, skeletal anomalies, impaired vision, and/or hearing and shortened life spans. Whereas in the past, few individuals with MPS reached adulthood, better diagnosis, multidisciplinary care, and new therapies have led to an increasing number of adult patients with MPS. Therefore, fertility and pregnancy questions in this patient population are becoming more important. Management of fertility issues and pregnancy in patients with MPS is challenging due to the lack of documented cases and a dearth in the literature on this topic. This review presents multidisciplinary expert opinions on managing fertility and pregnancy based on case studies and clinical experience presented at a meeting of MPS specialists held in Berlin, Germany, in April 2015. An overview of the existing literature on this subject is also included.

  19. Projections and opinions from 100 experts in long-acting reversible contraception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Diana Greene; Barar, Rana; Gould, Heather; Gomez, Ivette; Nguyen, Deborah; Biggs, M Antonia

    2015-12-01

    This survey of published researchers of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) examines their opinions about important barriers to LARC use in the United States (US), projections for LARC use in the absence of barriers and attitudes toward incentives for clinicians to provide and women to use LARC methods. We identified 182 authors of 59 peer-reviewed papers on LARC use published since 2013. A total of 104 completed an internet survey. We used descriptive and multivariate analyses to assess LARC use barriers and respondent characteristics associated with LARC projections and opinions. The most commonly identified barrier was the cost of the device (63%), followed by women's knowledge of safety, method acceptability and expectations about use. A shortage of trained providers was a commonly cited barrier, primarily of primary care providers (49%). Median and modal projections of LARC use in the absence of these barriers were 25-29% of contracepting women. There was limited support for provider incentives and almost no support for incentives for women to use LARC methods, primarily out of concern about coercion. Clinical and social science LARC experts project at least a doubling of the current US rate of LARC use if barriers to method provision and adoption are removed. While LARC experts recognize the promise of LARC methods to better meet women's contraceptive needs, they anticipate that the majority of US women will not choose LARC methods. Reducing unintended pregnancy rates will depend on knowledge, availability and use of a wider range of methods of contraception to meet women's individual needs. Efforts to increase LARC use need to meet the dual goals of increasing access to LARC methods and protecting women's reproductive autonomy. To accomplish this, we need reasonable expectations for use, provider training, low-cost devices and noncoercive counseling, rather than incentives for provision or use. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier

  20. [Expert's opinion in civil proceedings for damages in cases relating to hospital infections, especially to hepatitis B and C infections].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowaniec, Czesław

    2005-01-01

    Many papers considering the role of the forensic medicine expert in legal proceedings and a probative value of medico-legal opinions have been published. Prof. Jaegermann's consideration and essays about the theory of opinionating are particularly worth mentioning. Medicolegal opinions in civil proceedings for damages in cases relating to hospital infections, including hepatitis B and C virus infections seem to be of great importance. Legal composition of records in the civil code, especially those relating to the demandant who in agreement with art. 6 of the PC is obliged to present the facts (prerequisites of civil liability) from which the claim included in the damage suit results, and also the obligatory principles for the civil procedure which highlight the role of the forensic medicine expert and the significance of the medico-legal opinion as important evidence during proceedings. It is known that in cases of this type of expert's opinion is of decisive significance and legal decision is very often based on the conclusions drawn. The author presents consultative problems and difficulties relating to the analysis of facts and evidence material in the epidemiologic aspect which a forensic medicine expert comes across while giving his/her opinion. Questions posed by the court and expectations of the judge appointing an expert who should provide reliable information from his/her field and comprehensively explain all the doubts in the investigated question are suggested to be discussed independently. The complicated character of infections with hepatitis B and C viruses, especially their various courses and clinical pictures as well as the efficiency of all the diagnostic methods used make the provision of a medico-legal opinion more difficult.

  1. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  2. Laser Safety in Isotretinoin Use: A Survey of Expert Opinion and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prather, Heidi B; Alam, Murad; Poon, Emily; Arndt, Kenneth A; Dover, Jeffrey S

    2017-03-01

    Reports of poor wound healing in the setting of isotretinoin treatment have created a conservative standard of care in which laser and phototherapy treatment of patients receiving isotretinoin is relatively contraindicated. A survey of 220 nationally recognized experts in cutaneous laser surgery was conducted to evaluate physician experience and opinion pertaining to laser and light procedures in patients treated with isotretinoin, including perceived risk and actual complications. There was a 42% response rate. Seventy-six percent of respondents have never seen in their own clinical practices any cases of complications arising in patients treated with laser while receiving isotretinoin or within 6 months of completing a course of therapy. Almost half of respondents have treated patients in this subpopulation with laser, although only a small minority have done so with ablative devices. Common concerns among respondents regarding isotretinoin patients are the risks of poor wound healing and scarring, but the most often reported concern is medicolegal risk (74%). It would seem that the risk of performing laser procedures on patients receiving isotretinoin or having recently completed a course, as estimated and observed by cutaneous laser experts, is lower than the currently perceived risk among the general medical community.

  3. Public opinions about human enhancement can enhance the expert-only debate: A review study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, Anne M; Schuijff, Mirjam

    2016-07-01

    Human enhancement, the non-medical use of biomedical technologies to improve the human body or performance beyond their 'natural' limitations, is a growing trend. At the same time, the use of these technologies has societal consequences. In societal debates about human enhancement, however, it is mainly the voices of experts that are being heard, and little is known about the public's understanding of human enhancement. The views of the public can give valuable insights, and can, in turn, supplement experts' voices in political decision-making as has been argued before for other emerging technologies. This study presents a systematic literature review of current public perceptions and attitudes towards technologies for human enhancement. Results show that the public's view has not been assessed often. Studies originate mainly from western-oriented countries and cover a broad range of enhancement technologies. In the studies, the majority of respondents hold moderate to strong negative attitudes towards enhancement technologies for non-medical applications, although the type of technology influences these opinions. The study provides an overview of what is known about citizens' attitudes towards technologies for human enhancement. © The Author(s) 2015.

  4. Experts' opinions on the benefit of an incidental prenatal diagnosis of sex chromosomal aneuploidy: a qualitative interview survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters, J.J.P.M.; Verhaak, C.M.; Braat, D.D.M.; Leeuwen, E. van; Smits, A.P.T.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Incidental findings in prenatal diagnostic testing may or may not have clear prognostic significance for the phenotype. We studied experts' opinions of the benefit and disadvantage of an incidental prenatal diagnosis of a sex chromosomal aneuploidy (SCA). METHODS: We interviewed 16

  5. The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

  6. Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Ehud; Sharfman, Zachary T; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3-8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions.

  7. Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler D. Eddy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation, compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

  8. Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Girschik

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30–40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention.

  9. Expert opinion on ranking risk factors for subclinical mastitis using a modified Delphi technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lees, N M; Lievaart, J J

    2013-05-01

    To collate the expert opinion of Australian dairy practitioners on the relative importance of risk factors for subclinical mastitis in dairy cattle. A modified Delphi technique was used to collect the data over two rounds. First, participants were asked to complete a survey involving ranking the level of importance of 42 risk factors on the incidence of subclinical mastitis on a scale from 1 to 10 for two categories of subclinical mastitis; contagious and environmental. After presenting and discussing the results of the first survey, the participants were asked to complete the same survey a second time. To rank the risk factors and identify the consensus amongst the participants, the median and total variation of answers were calculated and compared between the two surveys. The most important factors identified by the respondents after the second survey for contagious subclinical mastitis were: Teat Disinfection Post-milking, Management of High Cell Count Cows and Presence of Chronically Infected Mastitis Cows in the Herd. The most important factors for environmental subclinical mastitis were Cleanliness of the Environment and Technique of Teat Disinfection Post-milking. A movement toward consensus for the more important factors and a movement away from consensus for the less important factors in the second survey were observed. The most important factors for subclinical mastitis were found to be: teat disinfection post-milking, management of high cell count cows, presence of chronically infected mastitis cows in the herd and cleanliness of the environment.

  10. Evidence - based pharmacological treatment of atopic dermatitis: An expert opinion and new expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold P Oranje

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Atopic dermatitis (AD is one of the most common skin diseases with a complex multifactorial background. The clinical presentation, the aggravating factors and the complications vary according to the age of the patients. Most cases, approximately 60-80%, present for the 1 st time before the age of 12 months. Adult-onset AD has been observed as a special variant. Pruritus is the worst sign of AD, which also often indicates an exacerbation and is considered to be the most annoying symptom of AD. Treatment is preferably started based on the severity of AD. In only 10% of the cases, AD is so severe that systemic treatment is necessary. Systemic treatment including topical wet-wrap treatment is indicated in the worst and recalcitrant cases of AD. Systemic treatment of AD is discussed with regards to the evidence-based efficacy and safety aspects. I prefer wet-wraps as a crisis intervention in severe childhood cases, whereas UV and systemic treatments are the choices in patients older than 10 years. Probiotics are not useful in the treatment. If they have any effect at all it may only be in food-allergic children with AD. Finally, anti-histamines are not effective against pruritus in AD. They are only effective against urticarial flares and in cases with food-allergy. This article consists of an expert opinion on evidence-based pharmacological treatment of AD, but it is not a systemic review.

  11. Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Astiaso Garcia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical, hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into chemical energy by means of the electrolysis of water which does not produce any toxic or climate-relevant emission. This paper aims to pinpoint the potential uses of renewable hydrogen storage systems in Europe, analysing current and potential locations, regulatory framework, governments’ outlooks, economic issues, and available renewable energy amounts. The expert opinion survey, already used in many research articles on different topics including energy, has been selected as an effective method to produce realistic results. The obtained results highlight strategies and actions to optimize the storage of hydrogen produced by renewables to face varying electricity demand and generation-driven fluctuations reducing the negative effects of the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix of European Countries.

  12. The effect of popular exemplars and expert account base-rate information on perceived public opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lefevere, J.; Walgrave, S.; de Swert, K.

    2012-01-01

    How people perceive public opinion is important because it affects their willingness to express themselves. This paper investigates whether two different portrayals of public opinion in the TV news affect people’s perception of public opinion. We use an experimental design in which roughly one

  13. What does expert opinion in guidelines mean? a meta-epidemiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, Oscar J; Alvarez-Villalobos, Neri; Shah, Raj; Mohammed, Khaled; Morgan, Rebecca L; Sultan, Shahnaz; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Prokop, Larry J; Dahm, Philipp; Mustafa, Reem A; Murad, Mohammad H

    2017-10-01

    Guidelines often use the term expert opinion (EO) to qualify recommendations. We sought to identify the rationale and evidence type in EO recommendations. We searched multiple databases and websites for contemporary guidelines published in the last decade that used the term EO. We identified 1106 references, of which 69 guidelines were included (2390 recommendations, of which 907 were qualified as EO). A rationale for using EO designation was not provided in most (91%) recommendations. The most commonly cited evidence type was extrapolated from studies that did not answer guideline question (40% from randomised trials, 38% from observational studies and 2% from case reports or series). Evidence extrapolated from populations that were different from those addressed in the guideline was found in 2.5% of EO recommendations. We judged 5.6% of EO recommendations as ones that could have been potentially labelled as good practice statements. None of the EO recommendations were explicitly described as being solely dependent on the clinical experience of the panel. The use of EO as a level of evidence in guidelines remains common. A rationale for such use is not explicitly provided in most instances. Most of the time, evidence labelled as EO was indirect evidence and occasionally was very low-quality evidence derived from case series. We posit that the explicit description of evidence type, as opposed to using the label EO, may add clarity and transparency and may ultimately improve uptake of recommendations. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Evidence-based treatment for melasma: expert opinion and a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Krupa; Godse, Kiran; Aurangabadkar, Sanjeev; Lahiri, Koushik; Mysore, Venkat; Ganjoo, Anil; Vedamurty, Maya; Kohli, Malavika; Sharad, Jaishree; Kadhe, Ganesh; Ahirrao, Pashmina; Narayanan, Varsha; Motlekar, Salman Abdulrehman

    2014-12-01

    Melasma is one of the most common pigmentary disorders seen by dermatologists and often occurs among women with darker complexion (Fitzpatrick skin type IV-VI). Even though melasma is a widely recognized cause of significant cosmetic disfigurement worldwide and in India, there is a lack of systematic and clinically usable treatment algorithms and guidelines for melasma management. The present article outlines the epidemiology of melasma, reviews the various treatment options along with their mode of action, underscores the diagnostic dilemmas and quantification of illness, and weighs the evidence of currently available therapies. A panel of eminent dermatologists was created and their expert opinion was sought to address lacunae in information to arrive at a working algorithm for optimizing outcome in Indian patients. A thorough literature search from recognized medical databases preceded the panel discussions. The discussions and consensus from the panel discussions were drafted and refined as evidence-based treatment for melasma. The deployment of this algorithm is expected to act as a basis for guiding and refining therapy in the future. It is recommended that photoprotection and modified Kligman's formula can be used as a first-line therapy for up to 12 weeks. In most patients, maintenance therapy will be necessary with non-hydroquinone (HQ) products or fixed triple combination intermittently, twice a week or less often. Concomitant camouflage should be offered to the patient at any stage during therapy. Monthly follow-ups are recommended to assess the compliance, tolerance, and efficacy of therapy. The key therapy recommended is fluorinated steroid containing 2-4% HQ-based triple combination for first line, with additional selective peels if required in second line. Lasers are a last resort.

  15. Remarks on the expert`s opinion by Prof. Hans Schaefer: `Does electrosmog endanger health?`; Zum Gutachten von Professor Hans Schaefer: ``Gefaehrdet Elektrosmog die Gesundheit?``

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohr, H.

    1995-08-01

    Upon invitation by the Academy of Technology Assessment, Prof. Hans Schaefer, lecturing in physiology at Heidelberg University, established an expert`s opinion on the health hazards of the so-called electrosmog phenomenon. The study takes account of relevant publications up to the end of 1994 and is based mostly on original scientific publications. The methodology and findings of these studies were investigated in a meta-analysis. The article is a slightly abridged version of the comments of the Academy of Technology Assessment on Prof. Schaefer`s expert opinion. (orig./MG) [Deutsch] Im Auftrag der Akademie fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung hat der Heidelberger Physiologe Professor Hans Schaefer ein Gutachten zur Frage der Gesundheitsgefaehrdung durch den sogenannten Elektrosmog erstellt. Es sollte der momentane Wissensstand durch einen Experten erfasst und metaanalytisch aufgearbeitet werden. Die Studie beruecksichtigt die relevante Literatur bis Ende 1994 und stuetzt sich hauptsaechlich auf wissenschaftliche Originalarbeiten. Methoden und Ergebnisse dieser Arbeiten wurden in einer Metaanalyse evaluiert. Der vorliegende Text ist eine leicht gekuerzte Fassung der Stellungnahme der Akademie fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung zum Gutachten von Professor Schaefer. (orig./MG)

  16. Running retraining to treat lower limb injuries: a mixed-methods study of current evidence synthesised with expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, C J; Bonanno, D R; Carr, J; Neal, B S; Malliaras, P; Franklyn-Miller, A; Menz, H B

    2016-05-01

    Running-related injuries are highly prevalent. Synthesise published evidence with international expert opinion on the use of running retraining when treating lower limb injuries. Mixed methods. A systematic review of clinical and biomechanical findings related to running retraining interventions were synthesised and combined with semistructured interviews with 16 international experts covering clinical reasoning related to the implementation of running retraining. Limited evidence supports the effectiveness of transition from rearfoot to forefoot or midfoot strike and increase step rate or altering proximal mechanics in individuals with anterior exertional lower leg pain; and visual and verbal feedback to reduce hip adduction in females with patellofemoral pain. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence, experts recommended running retraining for: iliotibial band syndrome; plantar fasciopathy (fasciitis); Achilles, patellar, proximal hamstring and gluteal tendinopathy; calf pain; and medial tibial stress syndrome. Tailoring approaches to each injury and individual was recommended to optimise outcomes. Substantial evidence exists for the immediate biomechanical effects of running retraining interventions (46 studies), including evaluation of step rate and strike pattern manipulation, strategies to alter proximal kinematics and cues to reduce impact loading variables. Our synthesis of published evidence related to clinical outcomes and biomechanical effects with expert opinion indicates running retraining warrants consideration in the treatment of lower limb injuries in clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  17. Field testing of the ICHD-3β and expert opinion criteria for chronic migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Huahua; Deng, Yong; Zhang, Yixin; Jin, Jieli; Kong, Xueying; Zhu, Qiuwen; Wang, Kuiyun; Zhou, Jiying

    2016-12-01

    Chronic headache (CrH) occurs commonly in the population, and chronic migraine (CM) accounts for much of the CrH. Diagnostic criteria for CM remain controversial, and this could lead to undertreatment of CM. The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical profiles of CM and to field test the International Classification of Headache Disorders-3β criteria (ICHD-3β) and Expert Opinion criteria (EO) for CM application. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of CrH patients in our headache clinic during the period. Eligible patients were selected from CrH population based on Silberstein and Lipton criteria (S-L) for CM, and meanwhile fulfilled with migraine days at least 8 days/month. Then we evaluated the characteristics of clinic profiles and outcomes between patients diagnosed CM using ICHD-3β and EO criteria. Field tested the CM criteria Of ICHD-3β and EO. In a total of 710 CrH patients , 261 (36.8 %) were recruited with CM based on both S-L criteria and fulfilled at least 8 migraine days/month. Be understandable, all the 261 patients met the EO criteria, and only 185 (70.9 %) met ICHD-3β for CM. For the 76 patients who met EO but not ICHD-3β, 70 had atypical migraine attacks (probable migraine, PM), and another 6 had typical migraine attacks but less than a total history of 5 attacks. Although 173 (66.3 %) were concurrent with medication overuse, just one patient overused triptans and none used ergot agents. Clinical features were not significantly different between the ICHD-3β and EO criteria groups (P > 0.05), and neither were outcomes of prophylaxis (P = 0.966). Total migraine prophylaxis effectiveness was 73 %. Migraine-specific analgesics are rarely used in China, permitting patients with PM to avail themselves of "migraine days" is a reasonable accommodation for this difficult condition. In our hands, use of the new EO criteria for diagnosis of CM increases the sensitivity and maintains the specificity of decision making

  18. European expert opinion on the management of invasive candidiasis in adults

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kullberg, B.J.; Verweij, P.E.; Akova, M.; Arendrup, M.C.; Bille, J.; Calandra, T.; Cuenca-Estrella, M.; Herbrecht, R.; Jacobs, F.; Kalin, M.; Kibbler, C.C.; Lortholary, O.; Martino, P.; Meis, J.F.; Munoz, P.; Odds, F.C.; Pauw, B.E. de; Rex, J.H.; Roilides, E.; Rogers, T.R.; Ruhnke, M.; Ullmann, A.J.; Uzun, O.; Vandewoude, K.; Vincent, J.L.; Donnelly, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    This report discusses the present status of antifungal therapy and treatment options for candidaemia, considered by experts in the field in Europe. A conference of 26 experts from 13 European countries was held to discuss strategies for the treatment and prevention of invasive candidiasis, with the

  19. Effects of Noise Suppression on Intelligibility: Experts' Opinions and Naive Normal-Hearing Listeners' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilkhuysen, Gaston L. M.; Gaubitch, Nikolay; Huckvale, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In this study, the authors investigated how well experts can adjust the settings of a commercial noise-reduction system to optimize the intelligibility for naive normal-hearing listeners. Method: In Experiment 1, 5 experts adjusted parameters for a noise-reduction system while aiming to optimize intelligibility. The stimuli consisted of…

  20. Expert judgment versus public opinion : evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haan, Marco; Dijkstra, Gerhard; Dijkstra, Peter

    2003-01-01

    For centuries, there have been discussions as to whether only experts can judge the quality of cultural output, or whether the taste of the public also has merit. This paper tries to resolve that question empirically, using national finals of the Eurovision Song Contest. We show that experts are

  1. Communicating Chemical Risks for Social Learning: Findings from an Expert Opinion Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyytimaki, Jari; Assmuth, Timo; Hilden, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Environmental and health risks caused by chemical substances have been intensively debated in various arenas of science and policy, and in news media. The impacts of risk debates on the public have been widely studied, while less attention has been paid to expert views. We present results from a cross-national survey charting expert views on the…

  2. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  3. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz-Barbero, Belen; Gill, Aisha K; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi; Stoeckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    ... in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility...

  4. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches.

  5. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  6. The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structures. [probabilistic failure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1975-01-01

    The results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.

  7. Expert opinion survey on the impacts of air pollutants on forests of the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Pye; J.E. de Steiguer; C. Love

    1988-01-01

    A panel of experts was surveyed to obtain five air pollutants (SO2 NO2, O3, H2SO4, and HNO3) on growth, mortality, and leaf area of forests of the continental U.S. for later input to economic analysis. Results from the first two of three...

  8. Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, Samantha Low; O'Leary, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian statistical modeling has several benefits within an ecological context. In particular, when observed data are limited in sample size or representativeness, then the Bayesian framework provides a mechanism to combine observed data with other "prior" information. Prior information may be obtained from earlier studies, or in their absence, from expert knowledge. This use of the Bayesian framework reflects the scientific "learning cycle," where prior or initial estimates are updated when new data become available. In this paper we outline a framework for statistical design of expert elicitation processes for quantifying such expert knowledge, in a form suitable for input as prior information into Bayesian models. We identify six key elements: determining the purpose and motivation for using prior information; specifying the relevant expert knowledge available; formulating the statistical model; designing effective and efficient numerical encoding; managing uncertainty; and designing a practical elicitation protocol. We demonstrate this framework applies to a variety of situations, with two examples from the ecological literature and three from our experience. Analysis of these examples reveals several recurring important issues affecting practical design of elicitation in ecological problems.

  9. Art therapy for patients with depression: expert opinions on its main aspects for clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomdahl, Christina; Gunnarsson, Birgitta A; Guregård, Suzanne; Rusner, Marie; Wijk, Helle; Björklund, Anita

    2016-12-01

    Art therapy is based mainly on clinical experience and is rarely described and evaluated scientifically. There is a need for further exploration of its use in patients with depression. The aim of this study was to explore what experts consider to be the main aspects of art therapy in clinical practice for patients with depression. Eighteen occupational therapists experienced and educated in art therapy participated. The experts answered three rounds of Delphi questionnaires and ranked their agreement with 74 assertions. Consensus was defined as 70% or higher. The experts agreed more on assertions about theoretical frames of reference than about clinical practice. The main aspects of art therapy were agreed to be the patients' opportunity to express themselves verbally and through making art. It was equally important that art tasks provided an opportunity to address depressive thoughts, feelings, life experiences, and physical symptoms. Experts in the field of art therapy considered that the main aspect of clinical practice in art therapy for patients with depression is that art themes should promote expression related to both to depression and personal history.

  10. The rehabilitation of children and adolescents with severe or medically complicated obesity: an ISPED expert opinion document.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grugni, Graziano; Licenziati, Maria Rosaria; Valerio, Giuliana; Crinò, Antonino; Maffeis, Claudio; Tanas, Rita; Morino, Giuseppe Stefano

    2017-03-01

    Severe/medically complicated obesity in childhood, and particularly in adolescence, is a real disability that requires an intensive and continuous approach which should follow the procedures and schedule of rehabilitation medicine. Given the lack of a specific document focusing on children and adolescents, the Childhood Obesity Study Group set out to explore the available evidence for the treatment of severe or medically complicated obesity and to set standards tailored to the specific context of the Italian Health Service. Through a series of meetings and electronic communications, the writing committee (selected from members of the Study Group) selected the key issues, explored the literature and produced a draft document which was submitted to the other experts until the final synthesis was approved by the group. In brief, the following issues were involved: (1) definition and epidemiology; (2) identification of common goals designed to regain functional competence and limit the progression of metabolic and psychological complications; (3) a multi-professional team approach; (4) the care setting. This paper is an expert opinion document on the rehabilitation of severe and medically complicated obesity in children and adolescents produced by experts belonging to the Childhood Obesity Study Group of the Italian Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology (ISPED).

  11. Monitoring and control of microbioreactors: An expert opinion on development needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Baganz, Frank; Franco-Lara, Ezequiel

    2012-01-01

    This perspective article is based on an expert panel review on microbioreactor applications in biochemical and biomedical engineering that was organized by the M3C (measurement, monitoring, modelling and control) Working Group of the European Section of Biochemical Engineering Science (ESBES......) in the European Federation of Biotechnology (EFB). The aim of the panel was to provide an updated view on the present status of the subject and to identify critical needs and issues for furthering the successful development of microbioreactor monitoring and control. This will benefit future bioprocess development...... and in vitro toxicity testing. The article concludes with a set of recommendations for extended use and further development of microbioreactors....

  12. Recent differing expert opinions regarding the safety profile of hepatitis B vaccines: is there really a controversy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pless, Robert P

    2003-09-01

    Recent papers in Expert Opinion on Drug Safety arrived at different conclusions about the safety of hepatitis B vaccines. In one of these, review of the epidemiological literature failed to confirm the serious allegations raised with respect to vaccination. In the other, review of case reports and the authors' analytical method suggested serious adverse events are associated with the vaccine. In particular, they suggested a strong relationship with multiple sclerosis, the adverse event that has been the focus of several epidemiological investigations and has been found not to be related to vaccination. The method, using data from reported cases, attempted to compute relative and attributable risks using adult Td vaccine as a comparator. The authors made errors in assumptions about the data, including inappropriate use of controls and inappropriate application of epidemiology, rendering the conclusions invalid. Passive reporting data should be analysed with care and used only for hypothesis generation - anything more requires robust epidemiological study.

  13. Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: thiagoreis@usp.b, E-mail: barroso@ipen.b, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

  14. SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Louzada

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.

  15. The utilization of solid organs for transplantation in the setting of infection with multidrug-resistant organisms: an expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishara, Jihad; Goldberg, Elad; Lev, Shaul; Singer, Pierre; Ashkenazi, Tamar; Cohen, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Organ transplantation remains the optimal treatment for many patients suffering from end-stage organ disease. Increasing numbers of patients admitted to intensive care units, among them potential heart-beating, brain-dead organ donors, are exposed to infections with multidrug-resistant organisms, in particular carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CR-KP). An extensive literature search failed to reveal any information regarding the eligibility for transplantation of organs from such donors. For this reason, in 2009, the Israel Transplant Center, together with the Israeli Society for Infectious Diseases, established a working group with the intention of developing a national-specific approach to the use of these organs. In this viewpoint article, we present an algorithm based on expert opinion and our clinical experience with a donor who was found to be an asymptomatic carrier of CR-KP. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  16. The role and choice criteria of antihistamines in allergy management – expert opinion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurkiewicz, Dariusz; Czarnecka-Operacz, Magdalena M.; Pawliczak, Rafał; Woroń, Jarosław; Moniuszko, Marcin; Emeryk, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Allergic diseases are the most common chronic conditions lasting throughout the patient’s life. They not only cause significant deterioration in the quality of life of patients but also lead to significant absenteeism and reduced productivity, resulting in very high costs for society. Effective and safe treatment of allergic diseases is therefore one of the main challenges for public health and should be carried out by all the specialists in family medicine, internists and paediatricians in collaboration with allergists, otorhinolaryngologists and dermatologists. Antihistamines are most commonly used in the treatment of allergies. Several dozen drugs are available on the pharmaceutical market, and their generic forms are advertised widely as very effective drugs for the treatment of allergic diseases. What is the truth? What are the data from clinical trials and observational studies? Are all drugs equally effective and safe for the patient? According to a panel of experts representing various fields of medicine, inappropriate treatment of allergies can be very risky for patients, and seemingly equally acting medications may differ greatly. Therefore, a panel of experts gathered the latest data from the entire scientific literature and analysed the latest standards and recommendations prepared by scientific societies. This paper provides a summary of these studies and highlights the importance for the patient of the proper choice of drug to treat his allergies. PMID:28035215

  17. Essential elements of an early intervention service for psychosis: the opinions of expert clinicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lewis Shôn

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early intervention teams attempt to improve outcome in schizophrenia through earlier detection and the provision of phase-specific treatments. Whilst the number of early intervention teams is growing, there is a lack of clarity over their essential structural and functional elements. Methods A 'Delphi' exercise was carried out to identify how far there was consensus on the essential elements of early intervention teams in a group of 21 UK expert clinicians. Using published guidelines, an initial list was constructed containing 151 elements from ten categories of team structure and function. Results Overall there was expert consensus on the importance of 136 (90% of these elements. Of the items on which there was consensus, 106 (70.2% were rated essential, meaning that in their absence the functioning of the team would be severely impaired. Conclusion This degree of consensus over essential elements suggests that it is reasonable to define a model for UK early intervention teams, from which a measure of fidelity could be derived.

  18. Expert Insight into the Assessment of Competence in Cognitive-Behavioural Therapy: A Qualitative Exploration of Experts' Experiences, Opinions and Recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muse, Kate; McManus, Freda

    2016-05-01

    To offer insight into how cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) competence is defined, measured and evaluated and to highlight ways in which the assessment of CBT competence could be further improved, the current study utilizes a qualitative methodology to examine CBT experts' (N = 19) experiences of conceptualizing and assessing the competence of CBT therapists. Semi-structured interviews were used to explore participants' experiences of assessing the competence of CBT therapists. Interview transcripts were then analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis in order to identify commonalities and differences in the way CBT competence is evaluated. Four superordinate themes were identified: (i) what to assess, the complex and fuzzy concept of CBT competence; (ii) how to assess CBT competence, selecting from the toolbox of assessment methods; (iii) who is best placed to assess CBT competence, expertise and independence; and (iv) pitfalls, identifying and overcoming assessment biases. Priorities for future research and ways in which the assessment of CBT competence could be further improved are discussed in light of these findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. A qualitative exploration of experts' experiences, opinions and recommendations for assessing the competence of CBT therapists. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analysed using interpretive phenomenological analysis. Themes identified shed light on (i) what to assess; (ii) how to assess; (iii) who is best placed to assess; and (iv) common pitfalls. Priorities for future research and ways in which the assessment of CBT competence could be further improved are discussed in light of these findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. An analytical study on indifference management in educational system of Iran: Reflection on expert's opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazli Elham

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study attempted to explore and analyse the indifference management trend in the Educational system of Iran. This objective was achieved through a qualitative approach and grounded theory. The population included all educational management professionals and experts who had at least two years of management experience. Twenty-four individuals were selected through purposive sampling based on theoretical data saturation. In order to collect research data, semi-structured interviews were adopted. Moreover, the results were evaluated through systematic analysis method based on open, core and selective coding. The findings suggested that the causal conditions affecting indifference management entail eight dimensions: job motivation, employee development, organisational culture, organisational climate, attitude and manager's performance, employee attitude, work environment and nature of work. Organisational culture, organisational climate and workplace conditions were the underlying factors of indifference management, while behaviour and performance of managers were mediating or confounding conditions, playing a dramatic role in indifference management.

  20. An Expert Opinion on Advanced Insulin Pump Use in Youth with Type 1 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Bruce W; Kaufman, Francine R; Vint, Nan

    2017-03-01

    Among children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus, the use of insulin pump therapy has increased since its introduction in the early 1980s. Optimal management of type 1 diabetes mellitus depends on sufficient understanding by patients, their families, and healthcare providers on how to use pump technology. The goal for the use of insulin pump therapy should be to advance proficiency over time from the basics taught at the initiation of pump therapy to utilizing advanced settings to obtain optimal glycemic control. However, this goal is often not met, and appropriate understanding of the full features of pump technology can be lacking. The objective of this review is to provide an expert perspective on the advanced features and use of insulin pump therapy, including practical guidelines for the successful use of insulin pump technology, and other considerations specific to patients and healthcare providers.

  1. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters. PMID:28293678

  2. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Dadgar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

  3. The Quality of Life of High-Skilled Employees in Hungary. The Experts' Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA LEOVARIDIS

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to provide an overview of the working conditions of high-skilled employees in Hungary, by resorting to comparisons with the other Central and Eastern European countries, based on research carried out by the author during a three-month placement (August 1st-October 31st 2011 at the Institute of Sociology of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. This work combines several sources and methods for gathering information: theoretical documentation, secondary analysis of data, in-depth interviews with some experts in the field. The study results indicate the presence, for the knowledge workers in Hungary, of some common problems of this category of employees in all former communist countries, such as number of working hours per week more than EU average, low rate of participation in training, problems health such as stress, depression, heart disease etc., employees' complaints related to overworking associated with low wages in the public sector and with rigid hierarchy, lack of work-life balance, standards imposed by the parent company etc. in some multinational firms; cases of good practice appear at the micro level, mainly in Scandinavian capital firms or in companies in the IT sector.

  4. Competencies for infant mental health therapists: A survey of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quay, Herbert C; Hogan, Anne E; Donohue, Keith F

    2009-03-01

    We report on data provided by a nationwide panel of 23 infant mental health (IMH) experts who provided numerical ratings of the relative importance of 143 competencies desirable for licensed mental health therapists working with infants/children birth to 5 years of age and their families/caregivers. The competencies were developed based on prior state and national efforts and our own experience in training IMH therapists. The competencies were grouped conceptually into seven areas: (a) Normal infant and toddler development; (b) Atypical development (perturbations in development); (c) Emotional/behavioral disorders in infants and young children; (d) Assessment; (e) Intervention; (f) Community resources and referrals; and (g) Organization, communication, and collaboration. We calculated means, SDs, 95% confidence intervals to rank order each competency. We conducted reliability analyses and tested for mean differences in ratings for the seven areas. Interrater and intraclass correlations were modest, likely the result of restriction of range in the ratings. The seven areas showed high levels of internal consistency and, with few exceptions, did not significantly differ in the means of their ratings. The utility of the competencies are discussed as a framework for training and professional development for IMH clinicians. Copyright © 2009 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  5. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses.

  6. Graduate attributes in the disciplines of Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine: a survey of expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidlaw, Anita; Guild, Simon; Struthers, Julie

    2009-06-05

    This study was completed as part of a project for the Quality Assurance Agency on the enhancement theme of 'Research teaching linkages: enhancing graduate attributes' in the disciplines of Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine. The aims of this investigation were to elucidate a list of desirable research related graduate attributes for the disciplines of Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine and provide evidence as to how they could be covered within such curricula. Semi structured interviews, symposium breakout sessions and conference workshops were used to define and rank attributes suggested by curricula design experts from the three disciplines. Students graduating from a BSc Medical Science degree program were surveyed to determine how well they felt the curriculum and associated final year project equipped them with the identified attributes. A list of seven high level attributes which were desirable in graduates wishing to pursue either a professional or research career were identified. 105 students reported that a final year project was particularly effective at developing an understanding of the need to have an inquiring mind and critical appraisal skills whilst other components of their degree course covered team working skills, core knowledge and an understanding of ethics and governance. This study identified desirable attributes from graduates from medical, dental and veterinary degree programs and provides evidence to support the case for student projects helping to achieve both clinical and research related graduate attributes in medical undergraduates. The project also provides a focus for debate amongst those involved in curriculum design as to whether the attributes identified are those desirable in their graduates and to examine their current curriculum to determine coverage.

  7. Graduate attributes in the disciplines of Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine: a survey of expert opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laidlaw Anita

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was completed as part of a project for the Quality Assurance Agency on the enhancement theme of 'Research teaching linkages: enhancing graduate attributes' in the disciplines of Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine. The aims of this investigation were to elucidate a list of desirable research related graduate attributes for the disciplines of Medicine, Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine and provide evidence as to how they could be covered within such curricula. Methods Semi structured interviews, symposium breakout sessions and conference workshops were used to define and rank attributes suggested by curricula design experts from the three disciplines. Students graduating from a BSc Medical Science degree program were surveyed to determine how well they felt the curriculum and associated final year project equipped them with the identified attributes. Results A list of seven high level attributes which were desirable in graduates wishing to pursue either a professional or research career were identified. 105 students reported that a final year project was particularly effective at developing an understanding of the need to have an inquiring mind and critical appraisal skills whilst other components of their degree course covered team working skills, core knowledge and an understanding of ethics and governance. Conclusion This study identified desirable attributes from graduates from medical, dental and veterinary degree programs and provides evidence to support the case for student projects helping to achieve both clinical and research related graduate attributes in medical undergraduates. The project also provides a focus for debate amongst those involved in curriculum design as to whether the attributes identified are those desirable in their graduates and to examine their current curriculum to determine coverage.

  8. Treatment of Liver Tumors with Lipiodol TACE: Technical Recommendations from Experts Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baere, Thierry de, E-mail: thierry.debaere@gustaveroussy.fr [Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France); Arai, Yasuaki, E-mail: arai-y3111@mvh.biglobe.ne.jp [National Cancer Center, Department of Diagnostic Radiology (Japan); Lencioni, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.lencioni@med.unipi.it [Pisa University School of Medicine, Division of Diagnostic Imaging and Intervention (R.L.) (Italy); Geschwind, Jean-Francois, E-mail: jfg@jhmi.edu [The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Vascular and Interventional Radiology (United States); Rilling, William, E-mail: wrilling@mcw.edu [Medical College of Wisconsin, Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology Rm2803 (United States); Salem, Riad, E-mail: r-salem@northwestern.edu [Northwestern University, Department of Radiology (United States); Matsui, Osamu, E-mail: matsuio@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp [Kanazawa University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Department of Advanced Medical Imaging (Japan); Soulen, Michael C., E-mail: michael.soulen@uphs.upenn.edu [University of Pennsylvania, Division of Interventional Radiology (MCS) (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Transarterial chemoembolization with Lipiodol (Lipiodol TACE), also called conventional TACE, was developed in the early 1980s and widely adopted worldwide after randomized control trials and meta-analysis demonstrated superiority of Lipiodol TACE to best supportive care. Presently, there is no level one evidence that other TACE techniques are superior to Lipiodol TACE for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which includes patients with preserved liver function and nonsurgical large or multinodular HCC without distant metastases. In addition, TACE is part of the treatment for progressive or symptomatic liver metastases from gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. When injected into the hepatic artery, Lipiodol has the unique property of selective uptake and retention in hyperarterialyzed liver tumors. Lipiodol/drug emulsion followed by particle embolization has been demonstrated to improve the pharmacokinetic of the drug and tumor response. Radio opacity of Lipiodol helps to monitor treatment delivery, with retention of Lipiodol serving as an imaging biomarker for tumor response. For 30 years, Lipiodol TACE has been inconsistently referenced in many publications with various levels of details for the method of preparation and administration, with reported progressive outcomes following improvements in the technique and the devices used to deliver the treatment and better patient selection. Consequently, there is no consensus on the standard method of TACE regarding the use of anticancer agents, embolic material, technical details, and the treatment schedule. In order to develop an internationally validated technical recommendation to standardize the Lipiodol TACE procedure, a worldwide panel of experts participated in a consensus meeting held on May 10, 2014.

  9. MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Funk

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

  10. Opinions on fresh produce food safety and quality standards by fresh produce supply chain experts from the global South and North.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Boxstael, Van S.; Nanyunja, J.; Jordaan, D.; Luning, P.A.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2015-01-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types

  11. Prioritizing management actions for invasive populations using cost, efficacy, demography and expert opinion for 14 plant species world-wide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Natalie Z; Baxter, Peter W J; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Wardle, Glenda M; Buckley, Yvonne M

    2016-04-01

    Management of invasive populations is typically investigated case-by-case. Comparative approaches have been applied to single aspects of management, such as demography, with cost or efficacy rarely incorporated.We present an analysis of the ranks of management actions for 14 species in five countries that extends beyond the use of demography alone to include multiple metrics for ranking management actions, which integrate cost, efficacy and demography (cost-effectiveness) and managers' expert opinion of ranks. We use content analysis of manager surveys to assess the multiple criteria managers use to rank management strategies.Analysis of the matrix models for managed populations showed that all management actions led to reductions in population growth rate (λ), with a median 48% reduction in λ across all management units; however, only 66% of the actions led to declining populations (λ demography as important. 80% of managers identified off-target effects of management as important, which was not captured using any of the other metrics. Synthesis and applications. A multidimensional view of the benefits and costs of management options provides a range of single and integrated metrics. These rankings, and the relationships between them, can be used to assess management actions for invasive plants. The integrated cost-effectiveness approach goes well 'beyond demography' and provides additional information for managers; however, cost-effectiveness needs to be augmented with information on off-target effects and social impacts of management in order to provide greater benefits for on-the-ground management.

  12. Expert Opinion vs Patient Perspective in Treatment of Rare Disorders: Tooth Removal in Lesch-Nyhan Disease as an Example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotton, Adam C; Bell, R B; Jinnah, H A

    2017-12-15

    Treatment recommendations for rare disorders often are limited by a lack of data from objective clinical trials. As a result, recommendations are often based on expert opinion. Because expert opinions sometimes conflict, many patients turn to the Internet for guidance from others who may have tried a treatment. The increasing numbers of patients and families who post opinions regarding outcomes allow for systematic data collection regarding specific treatments from the patient perspective. We used social media research methods to determine the opinions of family members or other caregivers regarding permanent removal of teeth for treatment of self-injurious biting (SIB) in patients with Lesch-Nyhan disease (LND), a particularly difficult treatment decision where expert opinion is divided. A content analysis of social media postings was used to systematically interpret caregiver posts about tooth extraction from families and other caregivers of patients with LND who posted comments regarding physical or emotional well-being after tooth extraction. A scale was used to rate all posted opinions. Scores ranged from 1 to 5, with 1 being completely negative and 5 being completely positive. 170 comments from 46 unique individuals were collected and scored by two raters. Inter-rater reliability, determined using a correlation coefficient across all postings, was 0.85, suggesting a high degree of reliability. The overall average caregiver sentiment score was 4.86, which is an overwhelmingly positive endorsement of tooth extraction as a means for controlling SIB. These methods provide a simple strategy for recommending treatment strategies based on real-world experience when objective clinical trials are unviable.

  13. Evidence and expert opinions: Dry needling versus acupuncture (I) : The American Alliance for Professional Acupuncture Safety (AAPAS) White Paper 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Arthur Yin; Xu, Jun; Li, Yong-Ming

    2017-01-01

    In the last twenty years, in the United States and other Western countries, dry needling (DN) became a hot and debatable topic, not only in academic but also in legal fields. This White Paper is to provide the authoritative information of DN versus acupuncture to academic scholars, healthcare professional administrators, lawmakers, and the general public through providing the authoritative evidence and experts' opinions regarding critical issues of DN versus acupuncture, and then reach consensus. DN is the use of dry needles alone, either solid filiform acupuncture needles or hollow-core hypodermic needles, to insert into the body for the treatment of muscle pain and related myofascial pain syndrome. DN is sometimes also known as intramuscular stimulati on, trigger points (TrP) acupuncture, TrP DN, myofascial TrP DN, or biomedical acupuncture. In Western countries, DN is a form of simplified acupuncture using biomedical language in treating myofascial pain, a contemporary development of a portion of Ashi point acupuncture from Chinese acupuncture. It seeks to redefine acupuncture by reframing its theoretical principles in a Western manner. DN-like needling with filiform needles have been widely used in Chinese acupuncture practice over the past 2,000 years, and with hypodermic needles has been used in China in acupuncture practice for at least 72 years. In Eastern countries, such as China, since late of 1800s or earlier, DN is a common name of acupuncture among acupuncturists and the general public, which has a broader scope of indications, not limited to treating the myofascial pain.

  14. The significance of expert opinions for the judicial concretization of laws on environment protection. Die Bedeutung von Sachverstaendigengutachten fuer die richterliche Rechtskonkretisierung im Umweltschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegele, D.

    1993-01-01

    Because Article 92 of the Basic Law reserves the act of passing judgement solely to the bench judges are required to assess scientific and technical matters and the prospects and risks of large-scale projects without being properly trained in these things. They do, however, have the option of consulting an expert. The dependence of law on scientific and technical insight necessitates a concretization process that makes the best of all the available knowledge, experience and solutions. Valuations that are derived by experts from scientific knowledge or empirical insights and are ethically well founded can facilitate decision-making, particularly in the concretization of protective goals and goals of environmental quality, in the development of a well contrived system of goals or when comparing different alternatives or weighing chances and risks. This requires that the judges and experts' work should be coordinated such that the peculiarities of the process of concretization of the law and the peculiarities of the respective methods used by the experts are taken into account. The author has developed guidelines for commissioning expert opinions and for preparing such opinions in accordance with the commission. (orig./HSCH)

  15. Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  17. Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

    2017-05-06

    This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70-80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70-80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the 'already dispensed here' pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an 'action taken' documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Voices from the Field: 30 Expert Opinions on America 2000, The Bush Administration Strategy To "Reinvent" America's Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Institute for Educational Leadership, Washington, DC.

    "America 2000," President Bush's national strategy for "Reinventing America's Schools" is evaluated by 30 invited experts in the following papers: "Bottom-up Reform From the Top Down" (John E. Chubb); "Would Choice + Competition Yield Quality Education?" (Richard F. Elmore); "The Federal Education Role…

  19. Tax and Environmental Experts Opinion in Yazd City about the Effect of Green Tax System Establishment to Reduce of Environmental Pollutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Mirzabagheri

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Correct and efficient use of various sources of energy and natural resources for sustainable development is necessary to achieve economic growth. Based on the importance preservation of non-renewable resources and reducing the negative impacts of industrial and economic activities more than ever are evident for governments. So, a descriptive study was conducted entitled “Tax and Environmental Experts Opinion in Yazd City about the Green Tax System Establishment and Reduce of Environmental Pollutions. Methods: In order to gather the survey information and verify our research hypothesis, we designed a questionnaire with the five-item Likert’s scale which was completed by 126 tax and environmental experts that has been chosen by stratified random sampling. The extracted information is analyzed by t-Student test in SPSS software.  Results: Given that all three statistics obtained by t-test for air pollution, water and soil is bigger than the critical Alpha value at level of 5% (Z0.05=1.645, according to experts opinion can be expressed with 95% confidence that the establishment of green tax system reduce all three types of environmental  pollutions including; air, water and soil. Conclusion:Based on the results, the establishment of green tax system with reduce of environmental pollutions could have an important role in health promotion, social welfare and economic situation. It is mentioned that Increasing the VAT on gasoline, sustainable cleaning products, toxins and pesticides factors Unlike other factors can not reduce environmental pollutions.

  20. Characterization of hazards, welfare promoters and animal-based measures for the welfare assessment of dairy cows: Elicitation of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertocchi, Luigi; Fusi, Francesca; Angelucci, Alessandra; Bolzoni, Luca; Pongolini, Stefano; Strano, Rosa Maria; Ginestreti, Jessica; Riuzzi, Giorgia; Moroni, Paolo; Lorenzi, Valentina

    2018-02-01

    An expert opinion elicitation, based on a modified Delphi technique, was organized to collect the opinion of 16 Italian veterinarians with the aim of conducting a hazard and a welfare promoter characterization for defining and weighing a list of management and housing factors potentially associated with negative or positive welfare outcomes in dairy cows kept in loose housing systems. In addition, the 16 experts judged a set of animal-based measures in order to rate them by appropriateness and by the level of animal pain and suffering due to the welfare consequences they measure. Veterinary experts were asked to score 52 hazards, 47 welfare promoters and 18 animal-based measures. Management and housing hazards, that were determined to be associated with a very high impact on the welfare of dairy cows, were mainly referred to lactating cows (absence of bedding material, presence of inadequate or slippery floor in walking areas, wrong design of the lying area), but also the use of harmful tools for animal handling and the lack of scheduled foot inspection, trimming and foot bathing reached very high impact scores. Management and housing welfare promoters dealing with optimal cow comfort around resting obtained the highest ratings, together with the presence of experienced and trained stockpersons, the implementation of an attentive animal grouping strategy and the control of temperature, humidity and ventilation. Considering animal-based measures, the highest ranking of importance was given to observation of lameness, records of mortality of adult cows and calves, observation of integument alterations and body condition scoring. This study has been the starting point for the development of the first Italian national protocol for the assessment of the welfare of dairy cows farmed in loose housing systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    discipline that permits them to testify to an opinion that will aid a judge or jury in resolving a question that is beyond the understanding or competence of laypersons. An expert witness is an expert who makes his or her knowledge available to a court (a tribunal or any other forum where formal rules of evidence apply) to help ...

  2. Curriculum development for basic gynaecological laparoscopy with comparison of expert trainee opinions; prospective cross-sectional observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Christy; Fox, Robert; Lenguerrand, Erik; Hinshaw, Kim; Draycott, Timothy J; James, Mark

    2014-09-01

    To develop content for a basic laparoscopic curriculum in gynaecology. Prospective cross-sectional observational study. Modified Delphi method with three iterations undertaken by an invited group of national experts across the United Kingdom (UK). Two anonymous online surveys and a final physical group meeting were undertaken. Junior trainees in gynaecology undertook a parallel iteration of the Delphi process for external validation. Population included: expert panel - certified specialists in minimal-access gynaecological surgery, RCOG national senior trainee representatives, and medical educationalists, junior trainees group - regional trainees in gynaecology in first and second year of speciality training. Experts (n=37) reached fair to almost complete significant agreement (κ=0.100-0.8159; pcurriculum. Findings indicated that 39 categories should be included in the curriculum. Port placement, laparoscopic equipment and patient selection were ranked the most important theoretical categories. Hand-eye co-ordination, camera navigation and entry techniques were deemed the most valuable skills. Diagnostic laparoscopy, laparoscopic sterilisation, and laparoscopic salpingectomy were the operations agreed to be most important for inclusion. Simulation training was agreed as the method of skill development. The expert panel favoured box trainers, whereas the junior trainee group preferred virtual reality simulators. A basic simulation laparoscopic hand-eye co-ordination test was proposed as a final assessment of competence in the curriculum. Consensus was achieved on the content of a basic laparoscopic curriculum in gynaecology, in a cost- and time-effective, scientific process. The Delphi method provided a simple, structured consumer approach to curriculum development that combined views of trainers and trainees that could be used to develop curricula in other areas of post-graduate education. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The need for public education on HPV and cervical cancer prevention in Asia. Opinions of experts at the AOGIN conference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, S; Park, S N; Ngan, H Y S; Frazer, I; Tay, E H; Chen, C J; Bhatla, N; Pitts, M; Shin, H R; Konno, R; Smith, J; Pagliusi, S; Park, J S

    2008-10-09

    Asia accounts for more than half of all cases of cervical cancer registered globally and improving prevention is urgently needed. A range of tools and strategies is now available to effectively prevent this disease, including two new prophylactic HPV vaccines approved and recommended for adolescents and young women. However, without communication these tools may have little impact on disease burden. The conferences of the Asia Oceania Research Organisation in Genital Infection and Neoplasia (AOGIN) bring together clinicians and scientists whose work is related to genital infections, particularly HPV, cervical dysplasia and neoplasia, as well as other anogenital cancers, with the aim of improving communication on prevention through human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and screening in Asian countries. The scope of this year's AOGIN conference was to extend education to include health workers, family doctors, paediatricians, governmental health agencies, and the general public through patients' testimonials that can reach out to women raising awareness of this silent disease. Community based initiatives and awareness campaigns were also reported, and can empower the people to engage in a dialog with local governments towards prioritization of cancer prevention programs, achieving more for the public than isolated actions. Parents and teachers are encouraged to communicate about these issues within families and schools. Evidence was discussed that males can participate in cervical cancer control as well, and prevention programs involving men should not be neglected as they may reduce genital disease burden in women. Opinion leaders proposed prevention measures to be considered for governmental decisions. While each country develops a locally appropriate policy for cervical cancer control there is a need to revise these programs regularly, as knowledge increases in response to public need, as well as to gather evidence about disease burden and the effectiveness of

  4. Effects of CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings 2008. Expert opinion; Effekte des CO{sub 2}-Gebaeudesanierungsprogramms 2008. Gutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausnitzer, Klaus-Dieter; Gabriel, Juergen; Eilmes, Sabine [Bremer Energie-Institut, Bremen (Germany); Diefenbach, Nikolaus; Loga, Tobias [Institut Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Wosniok, Werner [Bremen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Statistik

    2008-07-01

    The climate protection, the securing of the power supply as well as the enabling of payable energy costs belong to the central tasks to the policy. In the year 2006, the working group consisting of the Bremen Energie Institute (Bremen, Federal Republic of Energy), Institute Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH (Darmstadt, Federal Republic of Germany) and the Institute for Statistics of the University of Bremen (Bremen, Federal Republic of Germany) was ordered to develop a model for the estimation of the positive effects of the CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings according to the reduction of CO{sub 2}, conservation of final energy, employment, progress in modernization and saving of heating cost. In the expert opinion under consideration, the influences are stated for the case of loan and grant for the year 2008.

  5. Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

    2016-11-01

    Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Recent trend in the choice of fillers and injection techniques in Asia: a questionnaire study based on expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soo-Keun; Kim, Hei Sung

    2014-01-01

    With recognition of the value of volume enhancement in achieving a more youthful appearance, there has been concomitant explosion in the soft tissue filler market. Given the vast array of filler products and techniques currently available, choosing the right product and technique can be overwhelming to those with little experience. To evaluate the recent trend in the choice of fillers and injection techniques among leading dermatologists in Asia and offer guidance to those who practice facial fillers. A panel of dermatologists, who are recognized as filler experts and key speakers in Korea were asked to fill out an in-depth questionnaire on fillers in 2012. The results of the 2012 questionnaire are presented and compared with the questionnaire results of the exact same group of doctors in 2011. Those who participated in the questionnaire study practiced fillers for an average of 10.6 years with an average of 32.8 filler cases per week. Common indications for filler injection were midface augmentation and nose augmentation. Indications that most drastically increased between 2011 and 2012 were midface and forehead augmentation. For the nasolabial folds, the most preferred choice of filler product, needle, injection technique and injection depth was Radiesse®, 27G short needle, Layering technique and the Upper subcutaneous fat layer. For filler rhinoplasty, the preferred choices were Radiesse®, 27G short needle, Linear threading technique and the Mid-deep fatty layer. For dark circles, the favored choices were Esthelis Basic®, 30G short needle, Vertical technique and the SOOF (suborbicularis oculi fat) layer. For forehead augmentation, the most favored choices were Juvederm Voluma®, 23G cannula, Linear threading technique and Fanning and the Supraperiosteal layer. The physicians' satisfaction score for the nasolabial folds, filler rhinoplasty, dark circles and forehead augmentation was 71.5, 90, 84.5 and 87 respectively. On general, filler experts preferred

  7. Opinión de expertos y entrenadores sobre el reglamento de la competición infantil en baloncesto. (Expert opinion and coaches opinion on the competition rules in youth basketball.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Palao

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Resumen El objetivo del presente estudio es analizar la opinión de los entrenadores y expertos sobre la modificación del reglamento en categoría infantil. Para ello se administró el cuestionario de Modificación Reglamentaria de la Competición a un total de 101 entrenadores, y a 14 expertos. Los resultados más significativos señala que: a el 85.7% de los entrenadores y el 78.6% de los expertos cambiarían alguna regla; b los entrenadores prohibirían la posibilidad de defender en zona; c los expertos modificarían la altura de la canasta, disminuirían el tamaño del balón, acercarían la línea de tres puntos, modificarían el sistema de victorias, eliminarían la defensa en zona, y eliminarían el K.O. Todos estos datos, deben servir para realizar una profunda reflexión y futuros estudios, sobre el estado actual del reglamento en la competición infantil, con el objetivo de adaptarlo al joven deportista, y que no sea los niños los que tengan que adaptarse al deporte.AbstractThe aim of this study is to analyze the opinion of the coaches and experts on rule modification in basketball under-14. For this questionnaire was administered to Modify Competition to a total of 101 coaches, and 14 experts. The most significant results indicates that: a the 85.7% of the coaches and 78.6% of the experts a rule change, b prohibit coaches the opportunity to defend in zone c the experts would change the height of the basket, decrease the size of the ball, come close the three point line, victories would change the system, eliminate the zone defense, and eliminate the KO. All these data should be used to make a deep reflection and future studies on the current state of competition regulation in children, with the aim of adapting to the young sport, and not the children who have to adapt to the sport.http://dx.doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2012.02803

  8. Practical guidance and considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine or carbamazepine to eslicarbazepine acetate--Expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltola, Jukka; Holtkamp, Martin; Rocamora, Rodrigo; Ryvlin, Philippe; Sieradzan, Kasia; Villanueva, Vicente

    2015-09-01

    There is currently a lack of guidance on methodology and special considerations for transitioning patients from oxcarbazepine (OXC) or carbamazepine (CBZ) to eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL), if deemed clinically necessary. An advisory panel of epilepsy experts was convened to share their experience on the use of adjunctive ESL in clinical practice and to provide practical recommendations to help address this gap. When changing over from OXC to ESL, an OXC:ESL dose ratio of 1:1 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and the changeover can take place overnight. No changes to comedication are required. Since CBZ has a different mechanism of action to ESL and is a stronger inducer of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes, the transitioning of patients from CBZ to ESL requires careful consideration on a patient-by-patient basis. In general, a CBZ:ESL dose ratio of 1:1.3 should be employed to calculate the ESL target dose, and patients should be transitioned over a minimum period of 1-2weeks. Special considerations include adjustment of titration schedule and target dose in elderly patients and those with hepatic or renal impairment and potential adjustment of comedications metabolized by CYP enzymes. In summary, due to structural distinctions between ESL, OXC, and CBZ, which affect mechanism of action and tolerability, there are clinical situations in which it may be appropriate to consider transitioning patients from OXC or CBZ to ESL. Changing patients over from OXC to ESL is generally more straightforward than transitioning patients from CBZ to ESL, which requires careful consideration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  10. Expert opinion of Spanish rheumatologists about the role of physical exercise in ankging spondylitis and other rheumatic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarco, Pedro; Florez, Mariano; Almodóvar, Raquel

    2016-01-01

    To analyze the perceptions of Spanish rheumatologists, experts in spondyloarthropathies (SpA), on the role of exercise in these and in other rheumatic diseases A survey to 106 rheumatologists belonging to an SpA working group of the Spanish Society of Rheumatology, GRESSER, was collected. The questions were related with general aspects of professional exercise (clinical practice and generic knowledge), use of fitness in SpA (benefits, indications, contraindications, compliance, facilitators), sociodemographic characteristics and professional experience with the respondents' exercise regimen. A descriptive analysis was performed. the survey was sent to 106 rheumatologists, 44 of them answered (51% female, over 20 years of experience). Over 86% believe that their patients need exercise, but the prescription is moderate. 42% believe they do not have training to prescribe specific exercises. The physical activity education materials available consisted essentially of brochures (90%), websites (52%) and videos (23%). The therapeutic importance of exercise depends on the type of underlying disease. Most agree in decreasing the intensity of exercise during disease flares. For most cases of Spa, exercise is not a trigger of flares (66%), and may be used at any stage of the disease, depending on the type and the phase of the Spa. Rheumatologists consider exercise as a fundamental part of the treatment of rheumatic patients, but greater knowledge and development of specific strategies in its prescription is required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

  11. Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

    2014-01-01

    Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

  12. The appropriate use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in rheumatic disease: opinions of a multidisciplinary European expert panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmester, Gerd; Lanas, Angel; Biasucci, Luigi; Hermann, Matthias; Lohmander, Stefan; Olivieri, Ignazio; Scarpignato, Carmelo; Smolen, Josef; Hawkey, Chris; Bajkowski, Adam; Berenbaum, Francis; Breedveld, Ferdinand; Dieleman, Peter; Dougados, Maxime; MacDonald, Thomas; Mola, Emilio Martin; Mets, Tony; Van den Noortgate, Nele; Stoevelaar, Herman

    2011-05-01

    Given the safety issues of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) and the robustness of guidelines, making treatment choices in daily clinical practice is increasingly difficult. This study aimed systematically to analyse the opinions of a multidisciplinary European expert panel on the appropriateness of different NSAID, with or without the use of a proton pump inhibitor (PPI), in individual patients with chronic rheumatic disease. /Using the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method, the appropriateness of five (non-)selective NSAID with or without a PPI was assessed for 144 hypothetical patient profiles, ie, unique combinations of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal risk factors. Appropriateness statements were calculated for all indications. All options without PPI were considered appropriate in patients with no gastrointestinal/cardiovascular risk factors. Cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitors (C2SI) alone and non-selective NSAID plus PPI were preferred for patients with elevated gastrointestinal risk and low cardiovascular risk. Naproxen plus PPI was favoured in patients with high cardiovascular risk. For the combination of high gastrointestinal/high cardiovascular risk the use of any NSAID was discouraged; if needed, naproxen plus PPI or a C2SI plus PPI could be considered. The panel results may support treatment considerations at the level of individual patients, according to their gastrointestinal/cardiovascular risk profile.

  13. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  14. Treating an established episode of delirium in palliative care: expert opinion and review of the current evidence base with recommendations for future development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Shirley H; Kanji, Salmaan; Pereira, José L; Davis, Daniel H J; Currow, David C; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G

    2014-08-01

    Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. All rights reserved.

  15. [Portuguese recommendations on "How to diagnose, monitor, and treat undifferentiated peripheral arthritis": systematic review of the literature and the experts' opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Ana; Machado, Pedro; Ramiro, Sofia; Duarte, C; Mourão, Ana Filipa; Bogas, M; Costa, L; Bernardes, Miguel; Santos, Maria Josã; Fonseca, J Eurico; Silva, J A; Canhão, Helena

    2010-01-01

    The 3E (Evidence, Expertise, Exchange) Initiative is a multinational effort of rheumatologists aimed at developing evidence-based recommendations addressing specific questions relevant to clinical practice. The objective of the Portuguese contribution for the 3E Initiative was to develop evidence-based recommendations on how to investigate, follow-up and treat undifferentiated peripheral inflammatory arthritis (UPIA) adapted to local reality and develop additional recommendations considered relevant in the national context. An international scientific committee from 17 countries selected a set of questions concerning the diagnosis and monitoring of UPIA using a Delphi procedure. Evidence-based answers to each question were sought by a systematic literature search, performed in Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library and ACR/EULAR 2007-2009 meeting abstracts. Relevant articles were reviewed for quality assessment, data extraction and synthesis. In a national meeting, a panel of 63 Portuguese rheumatologists used the evidence which was gathered to develop recommendations, and filled the gaps in the evidence with their expert opinion. Finally, national recommendations were formulated and agreement among the participants was assessed. A total of 54754 references were identified, of which 267 were systematically reviewed. Thirteen national key recommendations about the investigation, follow-up and treatment of UPIA were formulated. One recommendation addressed differential diagnosis and investigations prior to the established operational diagnosis of UPIA, eight recommendations were related to the diagnostic and prognostic value of clinical and laboratory assessments in established UPIA (history and physical examination, acute phase reactants, serologies, autoantibodies, radiographs, magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound, genetic markers and synovial biopsy), one recommendation highlighted predictors of persistence (chronicity), one addressed monitoring of clinical

  16. Recommendations for Risk Categorization and Prophylaxis of Invasive Fungal Diseases in Hematological Malignancies: A Critical Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion (TEO-4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Can Boğa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This is the last of a series of articles on invasive fungal infections prepared by opinion leaders in Turkey. The aim of these articles is to guide clinicians in managing invasive fungal diseases in hematological malignancies and stem cell transplantation based on the available best evidence in this field. The previous articles summarized the diagnosis and treatment of invasive fungal disease and this article aims to explain the risk categorization and guide the antifungal prophylaxis in invasive fungal disease.

  17. Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Korber

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Determining what constitutes “good practice” in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Methods Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. Results The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents’ thought that determinants of a program’s success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators’ unfamiliarity with a program’s contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. Conclusion While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive

  18. Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korber, Katharina; Becker, Christian

    2017-10-02

    Determining what constitutes "good practice" in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic) evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents' thought that determinants of a program's success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators' unfamiliarity with a program's contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive approach of evaluation targeting measures in children and adolescents.

  19. [Screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus: Recommendations for clinical practice based on the literature and expert opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, L; Mathian, A; Adoue, D; Bader-Meunier, B; Baudouin, V; Belizna, C; Bonnotte, B; Boumedine, F; Chaib, A; Chauchard, M; Chiche, L; Daugas, E; Ghali, A; Gobert, P; Gondran, G; Guettrot-Imbert, G; Hachulla, E; Hamidou, M; Haroche, J; Hervier, B; Hummel, A; Jourde-Chiche, N; Korganow, A-S; Kwon, T; Le Guern, V; Le Quellec, A; Limal, N; Magy-Bertrand, N; Marianetti-Guingel, P; Martin, T; Martin Silva, N; Meyer, O; Miyara, M; Morell-Dubois, S; Ninet, J; Papo, T; Pennaforte, J-L; Polomat, K; Pourrat, J; Queyrel, V; Raymond, I; Remy, P; Sacre, K; Schmidt, J; Sibilia, J; Viallard, J-F; Viau Brabant, A; Wahl, D; Bruckert, E; Amoura, Z

    2015-06-01

    To develop French recommendations about screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Thirty-nine experts qualified in internal medicine, rheumatology and nephrology have selected recommendations from a list developed based on evidence from the literature. For each recommendation, the level of evidence and the level of agreement among the experts were specified. Experts recommended an annual screening of cardiovascular risk factors in SLE. Statins should be prescribed for primary prevention in SLE patients based on the level of LDL-cholesterol and the number of cardiovascular risk factors, considering SLE as an additional risk factor. For secondary prevention, experts have agreed on an LDL-cholesterol target of cardiovascular risk or with antiphospholipid antibodies. These recommendations about the screening and management of cardiovascular risk factors in SLE can be expected to improve clinical practice uniformity and, in the longer term, to optimize the management of SLE patients. Copyright © 2014 Société nationale française de médecine interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. [Prevention of infections in adults and adolescents with systemic lupus erythematosus: Guidelines for the clinical practice based on the literature and expert opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathian, A; Arnaud, L; Adoue, D; Agard, C; Bader-Meunier, B; Baudouin, V; Belizna, C; Bonnotte, B; Boumedine, F; Chaib, A; Chauchard, M; Chiche, L; Daugas, E; Ghali, A; Gobert, P; Gondran, G; Guettrot-Imbert, G; Hachulla, E; Hamidou, M; Haroche, J; Hervier, B; Hummel, A; Jourde-Chiche, N; Korganow, A-S; Kwon, T; Le Guern, V; Le Quellec, A; Limal, N; Magy-Bertrand, N; Marianetti-Guingel, P; Martin, T; Martin Silva, N; Meyer, O; Miyara, M; Morell-Dubois, S; Ninet, J; Pennaforte, J-L; Polomat, K; Pourrat, J; Queyrel, V; Raymond, I; Remy, P; Sacre, K; Sibilia, J; Viallard, J-F; Viau Brabant, A; Hanslik, T; Amoura, Z

    2016-05-01

    To develop French recommendations about the management of vaccinations, the screening of cervical cancer and the prevention of pneumocystis pneumonia in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Thirty-seven experts qualified in internal medicine, rheumatology, dermatology, nephrology and pediatrics have selected recommendations from a list of proposition based on available data from the literature. For each recommendation, the level of evidence and the level of agreement among the experts were specified. Inactivated vaccines do not cause significant harm in SLE patients. Experts recommend that lupus patient should receive vaccinations accordingly to the recommendations and the schedules for the general public. Pneumococcal vaccination is recommended for all SLE patients. Influenza vaccination is recommended for immunosuppressed SLE patients. Live attenuated vaccines should be avoided in immunosuppressed patients. Yet, recent works suggest that they can be considered in mildly immunosuppressed patients. Experts have recommended a cervical cytology every year for immunosuppressed patients. No consensus was obtained for the prevention of pneumocystis pneumonia. These recommendations can be expected to improve clinical practice uniformity and, in the longer term, to optimize the management of SLE patients. Copyright © 2016 Société nationale française de médecine interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. Clinical commentary --COPD is not a systemic disease. Results from the AIMAR Expert Opinion Consensus/Dissensus Seminar "COPD is/is not a systemic disease?", Venice, Italy, 13-14 November 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Claudio F; Bjermer, Leif

    2009-09-01

    Although COPD is a major disease worldwide there is a perplexing current uncertainty about the nature of this disease. COPD is characterized at onset and prevalently by the involvement of the lungs and bronchi, but as the disease evolves abnormalities develop in other organs and systems and the question arises: what is the pathogenesis of these respiratory and systemic impairments? Are the alterations that occur outside the respiratory system in the course of COPD a direct consequence of the lung pathology or is the lung simply the local expression of a pathological event whose origin lies in the organism as a whole? To tease out this issue, the Expert Opinion Consensus/Dissensus Seminar "COPD is/is not a systemic disease?" took place in Venice, on 13-14 November 2008. The Seminar was conceived and organized by the Italian Interdisciplinary Association for Research in Lung Disease, AIMAR. Top international opinion leaders in the respiratory field were invited to participate, the aim being to bring together sustainers of the two sides in a format allowing the best opportunity for an in-depth debate. Over the two days, different aspects of the issue 'upstream' (pathophysiology and biology) and 'downstream' (treatment and outcome assessment) were discussed. The general consensus that emerged, based on the still limited evidence available, was that COPD begins as a local inflammation in the lungs and this leads - through differentiated pathways yet to be fully clarified - to systemic consequences.

  2. Survey of expert opinions and related recommendations regarding bridging therapy using hypomethylating agents followed by allogeneic transplantation for high-risk MDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Sang Kyun; Moon, Joon Ho

    2015-08-01

    According to current guidelines on therapeutic strategies for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), cytoreductive therapies before allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) are not widely recommended for patients with high-risk MDS or refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB) who are eligible for allogeneic SCT because of controversial evidence on the role of such therapies. Yet, while treatment with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) has a critical limitation in eradicating MDS clones, the use of HMA treatment as a bridge to allogeneic SCT has become a focus with the hope of improving the SCT outcome based on the chance of achieving complete remission or reducing the blast percentage safely and effectively before allogeneic SCT. However, a consensus needs to be established on the use of HMAs as a bridging therapy for high-risk MDS or RAEB. Thus, the Korean AML/MDS working party group surveyed 34 Korean MDS experts on their bridging therapies for high-risk MDS. Accordingly, this paper presents the survey questionnaire and resulting data, along with a summary of the consensus and related recommendations regarding strategies using HMA treatment and allogeneic SCT based on reported studies and the current survey results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Regulatory acceptance and use of 3R models for pharmaceuticals and chemicals: expert opinions on the state of affairs and the way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffelers, Marie-Jeanne W A; Blaauboer, Bas J; Bakker, Wieger E; Beken, Sonja; Hendriksen, Coenraad F M; Koëter, Herman B W M; Krul, Cyrille

    2014-06-01

    Pharmaceuticals and chemicals are subjected to regulatory safety testing accounting for approximately 25% of laboratory animal use in Europe. This testing meets various objections and has led to the development of a range of 3R models to Replace, Reduce or Refine the animal models. However, these models must overcome many barriers before being accepted for regulatory risk management purposes. This paper describes the barriers and drivers and options to optimize this acceptance process as identified by two expert panels, one on pharmaceuticals and one on chemicals. To untangle the complex acceptance process, the multilevel perspective on technology transitions is applied. This perspective defines influences at the micro-, meso- and macro level which need alignment to induce regulatory acceptance of a 3R model. This paper displays that there are many similar mechanisms within both sectors that prevent 3R models from becoming accepted for regulatory risk assessment and management. Shared barriers include the uncertainty about the value of the new 3R models (micro level), the lack of harmonization of regulatory requirements and acceptance criteria (meso level) and the high levels of risk aversion (macro level). In optimizing the process commitment, communication, cooperation and coordination are identified as critical drivers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Management of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: A focus on radium-223: Opinions and suggestions from an expert multidisciplinary panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldari, Sergio; Boni, Giuseppe; Bortolus, Roberto; Caffo, Orazio; Conti, Giario; De Vincentis, Giuseppe; Monari, Fabio; Procopio, Giuseppe; Santini, Daniele; Seregni, Ettore; Valdagni, Riccardo

    2017-05-01

    Radium-223, a calcium mimetic bone-seeking radionuclide that selectively targets bone metastases with alpha particles, is approved for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) and symptomatic bone metastases. In patients with mCRPC, treatment with radium-223 has been associated with survival benefit, regardless of prior docetaxel use, and also has a positive impact on symptomatic skeletal events and quality of life. Radium-223 is best suited for patients with symptomatic mCRPC and bone-predominant disease and no visceral metastases, and may lead to better outcomes when given early in the course of the disease. An expert multidisciplinary panel convened in Milan, Italy to review the current best-evidence literature on radium-223 and to convey their personal expertise with the use of radium-223 and identify possible strategies for best practice. This article summarizes the best available evidence for the use of radium-223, discusses the essential role of the multidisciplinary team in delivering effective treatment for mCRPC, clarifies pre- and post-treatment evaluation and monitoring, and outlines future scenarios for radium-223 in the treatment of men with MCRPC. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Referees', coaches', and experts' opinions on the utilisation of the rules in the teaching-learning process of mini-basketball

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celestina Vizca\\u00EDno

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Las reglas condicionan los medios técnico-tácticos ya que establecen los límites de acción de los jugadores, en su relación con el balón y con el resto de jugadores. Sin embargo, existen muy pocas referencias que aborden esta temática. Así, se planteó conocer las opiniones de expertos, árbitros y entrenadores en torno a la utilización de las reglas en la etapa de minibasket. La muestra estuvo formada por 9 entrevistados: tres entrenadores, tres árbitros y tres expertos. Todos con titulación federativa y universitaria y con experiencia suficiente en la categoría de minibasket. El instrumento utilizado fue la entrevista semi-estructurada. Para su diseño se siguió el método Delphi en el que participaron 5 profesores universitarios que fueron seleccionando las dimensiones y preguntas a realizar. Tras la redacción definitiva y el pilotaje, se contactó con los diferentes profesionales de la muestra y se les entrevistó grabando y transcribiendo el contenido. La codificación se llevó a cabo por cuatro investigadores, garantizando la fiabilidad mediante el índice Kappa, obteniendo un promedio de K = .78. El análisis se llevó a cabo usando el MXQDA 10 y el SPSS 20. Los entrevistados manifiestan la importancia de enseñar las reglas a los jugadores que se inician en el baloncesto debido a que este aprendizaje les permite entender la lógica interna del juego. Asimismo, se expone la necesidad de que exista esta relación en el proceso de aprendizaje e incluso se abre la posibilidad de programar a partir de las reglas, puesto que son las que dan sentido al juego y a los medios técnico-tácticos.

  6. Evidence-based recommendations on the role of dermatologists in the diagnosis and management of psoriatic arthritis: systematic review and expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, M-A; Barnetche, T; Rouzaud, M; Sevrain, M; Villani, A P; Aractingi, S; Aubin, F; Beylot-Barry, M; Joly, P; Jullien, D; Le Maître, M; Misery, L; Ortonne, J-P; Cantagrel, A; Paul, C

    2014-08-01

    Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) can develop at any time during the course of psoriasis. The aims of these practical recommendations are to help dermatologists identify patients at risk of PsA, to diagnose PsA in collaboration with rheumatologists and to gain a better understanding of initial PsA management. A scientific committee consisting of 10 dermatologists and a rheumatologist selected clinically relevant questions to be addressed by evidence-based recommendations using the DELPHI method. For each question, a systematic literature review was performed in Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library databases. The levels of evidence of all selected and reviewed articles were appraised according to the Oxford levels of evidence. An expert board of 30 dermatologists reviewed and analysed the evidence and developed recommendations for the selected questions. Agreement among participants was assessed on a 10-point scale, and the potential impact of the recommendations on clinical practice was evaluated. Among the 6960 references identified, 190 relevant articles were included in the reviews. Three recommendations regarding risk factors for PsA and one regarding PsA prevalence were issued. The mean agreement score between participants varied from 7.8 to 9.6. Three recommendations on PsA screening tools that can be used by dermatologists were issued. The mean agreement score between participants varied from 7.7 to 9.4. Initial PsA treatment options according to published guidelines were critically appraised for axial and peripheral involvement and enthesitis/dactylitis. Three recommendations were issued. The mean agreement score between participants varied from 7.6 to 8.7. The systematic literature research and meta-analyses did not provide high-quality evidence to support recommendations regarding PsA screening. Conversely, PsA treatment options were supported by strong evidence. Cooperation between dermatologists and rheumatologists should be emphasized to better identify

  7. How Much Do We Know about Drug Resistance Due to PrEP Use? Analysis of Experts' Opinion and Its Influence on the Projected Public Health Impact.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobromir T Dimitrov

    Full Text Available Randomized controlled trials reported that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP with tenofovir and emtricitabine rarely selects for drug resistance. However, drug resistance due to PrEP is not completely understood. In daily practice, PrEP will not be used under the well-controlled conditions available in the trials, suggesting that widespread use of PrEP can result in increased drug resistance.We surveyed expert virologists with questions about biological assumptions regarding drug resistance due to PrEP use. The influence of these assumptions on the prevalence of drug resistance and the fraction of HIV transmitted resistance was studied with a mathematical model. For comparability, 50% PrEP-coverage of and 90% per-act efficacy of PrEP in preventing HIV acquisition are assumed in all simulations.Virologists disagreed on the following: the time until resistance emergence (range: 20-180 days in infected PrEP users with breakthrough HIV infections; the efficacy of PrEP against drug-resistant HIV (25%-90%; and the likelihood of resistance acquisition upon transmission (10%-75%. These differences translate into projections of 0.6%- 1% and 3.5%-6% infected individuals with detectable resistance 10 years after introducing PrEP, assuming 100% and 50% adherence, respectively. The rate of resistance emergence following breakthrough HIV infection and the rate of resistance reversion after PrEP use is discontinued, were the factors identified as most influential on the expected resistance associated with PrEP. Importantly, 17-23% infected individuals could virologically fail treatment as a result of past PrEP use or transmitted resistance to PrEP with moderate adherence.There is no broad consensus on quantification of key biological processes that underpin the emergence of PrEP-associated drug resistance. Despite this, the contribution of PrEP use to the prevalence of the detectable drug resistance is expected to be small. However, individuals who become

  8. Methods for combining experts' probability assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, R A

    1995-09-01

    This article reviews statistical techniques for combining multiple probability distributions. The framework is that of a decision maker who consults several experts regarding some events. The experts express their opinions in the form of probability distributions. The decision maker must aggregate the experts' distributions into a single distribution that can be used for decision making. Two classes of aggregation methods are reviewed. When using a supra Bayesian procedure, the decision maker treats the expert opinions as data that may be combined with its own prior distribution via Bayes' rule. When using a linear opinion pool, the decision maker forms a linear combination of the expert opinions. The major feature that makes the aggregation of expert opinions difficult is the high correlation or dependence that typically occurs among these opinions. A theme of this paper is the need for training procedures that result in experts with relatively independent opinions or for aggregation methods that implicitly or explicitly model the dependence among the experts. Analyses are presented that show that m dependent experts are worth the same as k independent experts where k < or = m. In some cases, an exact value for k can be given; in other cases, lower and upper bounds can be placed on k.

  9. Forensic experts' perceptions of expert bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commons, Michael Lamport; Miller, Patrice Marie; Li, Eva Yujia; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    How do expert witnesses perceive the possible biases of their fellow expert witnesses? Participants, who were attendees at a workshop at the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law were asked to rate for their biasing potential a number of situations that might affect the behavior of an opposing expert. A Rasch analysis produced a linear scale as to the perceived biasing potential of these different kinds of situations from the most biasing to the least biasing. Working for only one side in both civil and criminal cases had large scaled values and also were the first factor. In interesting contrast, a) an opposing expert also serving as the litigant's treater and b) an opposing expert being viewed as a "hired gun" (supplying an opinion only for money) were two situations viewed as not very biasing. Order of Hierarchical Complexity also accounted for items from the 1st, 2nd and 3rd factors. The result suggests that the difficulty in understanding the conceptual basis of bias underlies the perception of how biased a behavior or a situation is. The more difficult to understand the questionnaire item, the less biasing its behavior or situation is perceived by participants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Soft Expert Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawkat Alkhazaleh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1999, Molodtsov introduced the concept of soft set theory as a general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty. Many researchers have studied this theory, and they created some models to solve problems in decision making and medical diagnosis, but most of these models deal only with one expert. This causes a problem with the user, especially with those who use questionnaires in their work and studies. In our model, the user can know the opinion of all experts in one model. So, in this paper, we introduce the concept of a soft expert set, which will more effective and useful. We also define its basic operations, namely, complement, union intersection AND, and OR. Finally, we show an application of this concept in decision-making problem.

  11. Are extinction opinions extinct?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tamsin E; Bowman, Clive; Roberts, David L

    2017-01-01

    Extinction models vary in the information they require, the simplest considering the rate of certain sightings only. More complicated methods include uncertain sightings and allow for variation in the reliability of uncertain sightings. Generally extinction models require expert opinion, either as a prior belief that a species is extinct, or to establish the quality of a sighting record, or both. Is this subjectivity necessary? We present two models to explore whether the individual quality of sightings, judged by experts, is strongly informative of the probability of extinction: the 'quality breakpoint method' and the 'quality as variance method'. For the first method we use the Barbary lion as an exemplar. For the second method we use the Barbary lion, Alaotra grebe, Jamaican petrel and Pohnpei starling as exemplars. The 'quality breakpoint method' uses certain and uncertain sighting records, and the quality of uncertain records, to establish whether a change point in the rate of sightings can be established using a simultaneous Bayesian optimisation with a non-informative prior. For the Barbary lion, there is a change in subjective quality of sightings around 1930. Unexpectedly sighting quality increases after this date. This suggests that including quality scores from experts can lead to irregular effects and may not offer reliable results. As an alternative, we use quality as a measure of variance around the sightings, not a change in quality. This leads to predictions with larger standard deviations, however the results remain consistent across any prior belief of extinction. Nonetheless, replacing actual quality scores with random quality scores showed little difference, inferring that the quality scores from experts are superfluous. Therefore, we deem the expensive process of obtaining pooled expert estimates as unnecessary, and even when used we recommend that sighting data should have minimal input from experts in terms of assessing the sighting quality

  12. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  13. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge...... base of expert systems is often given in terms of an ontology, extracted and built from various data sources by employing natural language-processing and statistics. To emphasize such capabilities, the term “expert” is now often replaced by “cognitive,” “knowledge,” “knowledge-based,” or “intelligent......” system. With very few exceptions, general-purpose expert systems have failed to emerge so far. However, expert systems are applied in specialized domains, particularly in healthcare. The increasing availability of large quantities of data to organizations today provides a valuable opportunity...

  14. ExpertFOAF recommends experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iofcu, Tereza; Diederich, Joerg; Dolog, Peter

    2007-01-01

    the GrowBag approach [1]. The main assumption is that such user profiles can provide good hints about users' expertise. Such extended FOAF files (called ExpertFOAF) can be published on a user's home page, on web pages of institutions or conferences to characterize them. They can be crawled by distributed...

  15. Clinical Laboratory Practice Recommendations for the Use of Cardiac Troponin in Acute Coronary Syndrome: Expert Opinion from the Academy of the American Association for Clinical Chemistry and the Task Force on Clinical Applications of Cardiac Bio-Markers of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H; Greene, Dina N; Jaffe, Allan S; Kavsak, Peter A; Ordonez-Llanos, Jordi; Apple, Fred S

    2018-01-17

    This document is an essential companion to the third iteration of the National Academy of Clinical Biochemistry [NACB,8 now the American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) Academy] Laboratory Medicine Practice Guidelines (LMPG) on cardiac markers. The expert consensus recommendations were drafted in collaboration with the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine Task Force on Clinical Applications of Bio-Markers (IFCC TF-CB). We determined that there is sufficient clinical guidance on the use of cardiac troponin (cTn) testing from clinical practice groups. Thus, in this expert consensus document, we focused on clinical laboratory practice recommendations for high-sensitivity (hs)-cTn assays. This document utilized the expert opinion class of evidence to focus on the following 10 topics: (a) quality control (QC) utilization, (b) validation of the lower reportable analytical limits, (c) units to be used in reporting measurable concentrations for patients and QC materials, (d) 99th percentile sex-specific upper reference limits to define the reference interval; (e) criteria required to define hs-cTn assays, (f) communication with clinicians and the laboratory's role in educating clinicians regarding the influence of preanalytic and analytic problems that can confound assay results, (g) studies on hs-cTn assays and how authors need to document preanalytical and analytical variables, (h) harmonizing and standardizing assay results and the role of commutable materials, (i) time to reporting of results from sample receipt and sample collection, and (j) changes in hs-cTn concentrations over time and the role of both analytical and biological variabilities in interpreting results of serial blood collections. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  16. Public Opinion Polling with Twitter

    CERN Document Server

    Cody, Emily M; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

    2016-01-01

    Solicited public opinion surveys reach a limited subpopulation of willing participants and are expensive to conduct, leading to poor time resolution and a restricted pool of expert-chosen survey topics. In this study, we demonstrate that unsolicited public opinion polling through sentiment analysis applied to Twitter correlates well with a range of traditional measures, and has predictive power for issues of global importance. We also examine Twitter's potential to canvas topics seldom surveyed, including ideas, personal feelings, and perceptions of commercial enterprises. Two of our major observations are that appropriately filtered Twitter sentiment (1) predicts President Obama's job approval three months in advance, and (2) correlates well with surveyed consumer sentiment. To make possible a full examination of our work and to enable others' research, we make public over 10,000 data sets, each a seven-year series of daily word counts for tweets containing a frequently used search term.

  17. EXPERT OPINION OF RESIDENTS ON TREATMENT OF DRUG ADDICTION AND ALCOHOLISM (based on materials of focus group) / ЭКСПЕРТНОЕ МНЕНИЕ ГОРОЖАН О ЛЕЧЕНИИ НАРКОМАНИЙ И АЛКОГОЛИЗМА (по материалам фокус-группы)

    OpenAIRE

    Sedova Natal′ya Nikolaevna / Седова Наталья Николаевна; Veshneva Svetlana Aleksandrovna / Вешнева Светлана Александровна; Ioanidi Dar'ya Aleksandrovna / Иоаниди Дарья Александровна

    2015-01-01

    The editorial Board of the journal "Sociology of the City" in cooperation with the editorial Board of the journal "Bioethics" held a focus group in order to ascertain the opinion of residents of a large industrial city about the state of the drug problem in the Metropolitan area. Experts from different socio-professional groups were invited. During the discussion it became clear that the experts believe that the problem of alcoholism among the urban population is more serious than the problem...

  18. A cross-sectional survey of experts' opinions about the relative effectiveness of tobacco control strategies for the general population versus disadvantaged groups: what do we choose in the absence of evidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Christine L; Turon, Heidi; Bonevski, Billie; Bryant, Jamie; McElduff, Patrick

    2013-12-08

    There is a clear disparity in smoking rates according to social disadvantage. In the absence of sufficiently robust data regarding effective strategies for reducing smoking prevalence in disadvantaged populations, understanding the views of tobacco control experts can assist with funding decisions and research agendas. A web-based cross-sectional survey was conducted with 192 respondents (response rate 65%) sampled from the Australian and New Zealand Tobacco Control Contacts list and a literature search. Respondents were asked to indicate whether a number of tobacco control strategies were perceived to be effective for each of: the general population; Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people; those with a low income; and people with a mental illness. A high proportion of respondents indicated that mass media and increased tobacco taxation (84% and 89% respectively) were effective for the general population. Significantly lower proportions reported these two strategies were effective for sub-populations, particularly Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (58% and 63% respectively, p's disadvantaged sub-populations compared to the general population. Tailored quit programs and culturally relevant programs were nominated as additional effective strategies for disadvantaged populations. Views about subsidised medications in particular, suggest the need for robust cost-effectiveness data relevant to disadvantaged groups to avoid wastage of scarce tobacco control resources. Strategies perceived to be effective for disadvantaged populations such as tailored or culturally relevant programs require rigorous evaluation so that potential adoption of these approaches is evidence-based.

  19. Influential opinion leaders

    OpenAIRE

    Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, Colin

    2010-01-01

    We present a two-stage coordination game in which early choices of experts with special interests are observed by followers who move in the second stage. We show that the equilibrium outcome is biased toward the experts' interests even though followers know the distribution of expert interests and account for it when evaluating observed experts' actions. Expert influence is fully decentralized in the sense that each individual expert has a negligible impact. The bias in favor of experts resul...

  20. [Guideline (S2k, AWMF) of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Pneumologie und Beatmungsmedizin and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Arbeitsmedizin und Umweltmedizin "Diagnostics and Expert Opinion in the Occupational Disease No. 4101 Silicosis (Including Coal Worker's Pneumoconiosis)"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baur, X; Heger, M; Bohle, R M; Hering, K G; Hofmann-Preiß, K; Nowak, D; Tannapfel, A; Teschler, H; Voshaar, T; Kraus, T

    2016-12-01

    During the last 1.5 years an update of the guideline on silicosis was made by an interdisciplinary working group. New medical and scientific knowledge and the experience in expert opinion practice were taken into account.By preparing the initial guideline in 2010 standardization of diagnostics and adaption of the "Moers convention" which was not based on medical knowledge was in the focus, whereas the current update deals with fine emendation and extension, especially of the compensation rate (adaption with the Reichenhall recommendation).The diagnosis of silicosis (including mixed dust pneumoconiosis) is based on a detailed occupational history, and predominantly on the typical radiological findings. However, at initial diagnosis the standardized LD-HRCT takes an important role because of its high sensitivity and specificity. Exceptional cases are those with characteristic findings in chest X-ray follow-up. Correspondingly, it is mentioned in the guideline: "The standardized appraisal of the Low-Dose-Volume HRCT requires application of the CT classification (ICOERD, International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory diseases). In order to diagnose silicosis in CT scan opacities with sharp borders in both central upper lung fields and their circumferencies have to be documented. By comparing with ILO standard radiographs at least profusion category 1 in the right and left upper lung fields has to be reached (total profusion category 2)."The pathologic minimal requirement for the diagnosis of silicosis which has undergone controversial discussion has now also been defined. Corresponding to Hnizdo et al. 2000 it is now mentioned: "Finding of less than 5 silicotic granuloma per lung lobe by palpation is regarded as insignificant." This is a convention and not a threshold based on detailed medical scientific and statistical studies; it is based on extended experience in the South African gold mines.This guideline also deals with silicotic hilar

  1. Opinion Integration and Summarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yue

    2011-01-01

    As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

  2. Explaining opinion polarisation with opinion copulas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askitas, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    An empirically founded and widely established driving force in opinion dynamics is homophily i.e. the tendency of "birds of a feather" to "flock together". The closer our opinions are the more likely it is that we will interact and converge. Models using these assumptions are called bounded confidence models (BCM) as they assume a tolerance threshold after which interaction is unlikely. They are known to produce one or more clusters, depending on the size of the bound, with more than one cluster being possible only in the deterministic case. Introducing noise, as is likely to happen in a stochastic world, causes BCM to produce consensus which leaves us with the open problem of explaining the emergence and sustainance of opinion clusters and polarisation. We investigate the role of heterogeneous priors in opinion formation, introduce the concept of opinion copulas, argue that it is well supported by findings in Social Psychology and use it to show that the stochastic BCM does indeed produce opinion clustering without the need for extra assumptions.

  3. Expert Mining for Solving Social Harmony Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jifa; Song, Wuqi; Zhu, Zhengxiang; Liu, Yijun

    Social harmony problems are being existed in social system, which is an open giant complex system. For solving such kind of problems the Meta-synthesis system approach proposed by Qian XS et al will be applied. In this approach the data, information, knowledge, model, experience and wisdom should be integrated and synthesized. Data mining, text mining and web mining are good techniques for using data, information and knowledge. Model mining, psychology mining and expert mining are new techniques for mining the idea, opinions, experiences and wisdom. In this paper we will introduce the expert mining, which is based on mining the experiences, knowledge and wisdom directly from experts, managers and leaders.

  4. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  5. Discovering opinion leaders for medical topics using news articles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonnalagadda, Siddhartha; Peeler, Ryan; Topham, Philip

    2012-03-15

    Rapid identification of subject experts for medical topics helps in improving the implementation of discoveries by speeding the time to market drugs and aiding in clinical trial recruitment, etc. Identifying such people who influence opinion through social network analysis is gaining prominence. In this work, we explore how to combine named entity recognition from unstructured news articles with social network analysis to discover opinion leaders for a given medical topic. We employed a Conditional Random Field algorithm to extract three categories of entities from health-related new articles: Person, Organization and Location. We used the latter two to disambiguate polysemy and synonymy for the person names, used simple rules to identify the subject experts, and then applied social network analysis techniques to discover the opinion leaders among them based on their media presence. A network was created by linking each pair of subject experts who are mentioned together in an article. The social network analysis metrics (including centrality metrics such as Betweenness, Closeness, Degree and Eigenvector) are used for ranking the subject experts based on their power in information flow. We extracted 734,204 person mentions from 147,528 news articles related to obesity from January 1, 2007 through July 22, 2010. Of these, 147,879 mentions have been marked as subject experts. The F-score of extracting person names is 88.5%. More than 80% of the subject experts who rank among top 20 in at least one of the metrics could be considered as opinion leaders in obesity. The analysis of the network of subject experts with media presence revealed that an opinion leader might have fewer mentions in the news articles, but a high network centrality measure and vice-versa. Betweenness, Closeness and Degree centrality measures were shown to supplement frequency counts in the task of finding subject experts. Further, opinion leaders missed in scientific publication network analysis

  6. Discovering opinion leaders for medical topics using news articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonnalagadda Siddhartha

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rapid identification of subject experts for medical topics helps in improving the implementation of discoveries by speeding the time to market drugs and aiding in clinical trial recruitment, etc. Identifying such people who influence opinion through social network analysis is gaining prominence. In this work, we explore how to combine named entity recognition from unstructured news articles with social network analysis to discover opinion leaders for a given medical topic. Methods We employed a Conditional Random Field algorithm to extract three categories of entities from health-related new articles: Person, Organization and Location. We used the latter two to disambiguate polysemy and synonymy for the person names, used simple rules to identify the subject experts, and then applied social network analysis techniques to discover the opinion leaders among them based on their media presence. A network was created by linking each pair of subject experts who are mentioned together in an article. The social network analysis metrics (including centrality metrics such as Betweenness, Closeness, Degree and Eigenvector are used for ranking the subject experts based on their power in information flow. Results We extracted 734,204 person mentions from 147,528 news articles related to obesity from January 1, 2007 through July 22, 2010. Of these, 147,879 mentions have been marked as subject experts. The F-score of extracting person names is 88.5%. More than 80% of the subject experts who rank among top 20 in at least one of the metrics could be considered as opinion leaders in obesity. Conclusion The analysis of the network of subject experts with media presence revealed that an opinion leader might have fewer mentions in the news articles, but a high network centrality measure and vice-versa. Betweenness, Closeness and Degree centrality measures were shown to supplement frequency counts in the task of finding subject experts. Further

  7. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2017-06-01

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  8. Reporting Guidelines for the Use of Expert Judgement in Model-Based Economic Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Cynthia P; Thompson, Alexander; Rogowski, Wolf H; Payne, Katherine

    2016-11-01

    Expert judgement has a role in model-based economic evaluations (EEs) of healthcare interventions. This study aimed to produce reporting criteria for two types of study design to use expert judgement in model-based EE: (i) an expert elicitation (quantitative) study; and (ii) a Delphi study to collate (qualitative) expert opinion. A two-round online Delphi process identified the degree of consensus for four core definitions (expert; expert parameter values; expert elicitation study; expert opinion) and two sets of reporting criteria in a purposive sample of experts. The initial set of reporting criteria comprised 17 statements for reporting a study to elicit parameter values and/or distributions and 11 statements for reporting a Delphi survey to obtain expert opinion. Fifty experts were invited to become members of the Delphi process panel by e-mail. Data analysis summarised the extent of agreement (using a pre-defined 75 % 'consensus' threshold) on the definitions and suggested reporting criteria. Free-text comments were analysed using thematic analysis. The final panel comprised 12 experts. Consensus was achieved for the definitions of expert (88 %); expert parameter values (83 %); and expert elicitation study (83 %). The panel recommended criteria to use when reporting an expert elicitation study (16 criteria) and a Delphi study to collate expert opinion (11 criteria). This study has produced guidelines for reporting two types of study design to use expert judgement in model-based EE: (i) an expert elicitation study requiring 16 reporting criteria; and (ii) a Delphi study to collate expert opinion requiring 11 reporting criteria.

  9. Expert opinion: Reporting needle core biopsies of breast carcinomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoda, S A; Harigopal, M; Harris, G C; Pinder, S E; Lee, A H S; Ellis, I O

    2003-07-01

    Many breast carcinomas are now diagnosed in needle core biopsies, after either mammographic detection or symptomatic presentation. There is dispute, however, about the range of information that should be included in the diagnostic report of these small and possibly unrepresentative samples. Is it sufficient to simply report the presence of carcinoma, in situ or invasive? Or should the histopathologist give a more detailed report including features of prognostic and predictive significance? If so, what is the evidence that the further information is, first, of clinical benefit and, second, not unreliable because of sampling variability? To address the question "What should be included in reports of needle core biopsies of breast carcinomas?" contributions were invited from authors in the USA and the UK.

  10. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    OpenAIRE

    Maryam Kazemi; Mohsen Nematy; Abdolreza Norouzy; Maral Amini; Seyed Amirreza Mohajeri; Amirreza Razavi

    2013-01-01

    Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan. Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to t...

  11. Administering ziconotide and monitoring patients treated with ziconotide: expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Alisia A; Sapienza-Crawford, Anne J; Hanley, Kari L; Lokey, Kristi J; Wells, Linda; McDowell, Gladstone C; Stanton-Hicks, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Some patients with chronic pain who are intolerant of or refractory to treatment with systemic analgesics may benefit from intrathecal therapy. Ziconotide is the first nonopioid analgesic approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for intrathecal administration. Several randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy and safety of ziconotide. However, the maximum recommended dosing and titration schedule provided in the prescribing information may be too aggressive for some patients, and experience has demonstrated that ziconotide is better tolerated with slower titration to a lower maximum dose. Efficacy can be assessed by an evaluation of changes in pain, functionality, and quality of life. Cognitive adverse events may be subtle; therefore, it is important that health care professionals not only monitor patients for signs and symptoms of cognitive adverse events, but also teach family members how to do the same. Careful patient assessment and monitoring can help optimize the potential benefit from treatment with ziconotide. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Pain Management Nursing. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Making nutrigenomics work : Integrating expert stakeholder opinions and consumer preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ronteltap, A.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper applied the Group Decision Room methodology, a research tool to facilitate stakeholder dialogue, to develop a shared view on the further development of nutrigenomics (i.e. the interaction between nutrition and human genes). Results show that stakeholders are well aware of consumer

  13. Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Tension-type headache (TTH) is a highly prevalent disorder with enormous costs for the individual and the society. AREAS COVERED: Nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments are reviewed. Electromyographic (EMG) biofeedback has a documented effect in TTH, while cognitive......-behavioral therapy and relaxation training are most likely to be effective. Physical therapy and acupuncture may be valuable options for patients with frequent TTH. Simple analgesics and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are recommended for treatment of episodic TTH. Combination analgesics containing caffeine...

  14. Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The application of the scientific method in sport demands that regular and standardised testing must be implemented by the coach or scientist to determine whether the intervention, for instance training, has had the desired effect on sporting performance. However, the test administered by the coach or scientist must have ...

  15. Expert opinion on nanotechnology: risks, benefits, and regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Besley, John C., E-mail: jbesley@sc.edu; Kramer, Victoria L. [University of South Carolina, School of Journalism and Mass Communications (United States); Priest, Susanna H. [University of Nevada, Hank Greenspun School of Journalism and Media Studies (United States)

    2008-04-15

    A survey of American (US) nanotechnology researchers (N = 177) suggests a diversity of views about what areas are most important to the burgeoning field, as well as perceptions about the overall benefits and risks of such research. On average, respondents saw a range of technologies as key and viewed public health and environmental issues as areas where both risks and the need for regulation are greatest. These areas were also where respondents said current regulations were least adequate. Factor analyses of the survey questions suggest that, when considering both risks and regulations, respondents make a distinction between health and environmental risks, and what might be termed 'social risks' (e.g., invasion of privacy, use of nanotechnology in weapons, and economic impacts)

  16. Creative industries, creative class and competitiveness: expert opinions critically appraised

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bontje, M.A.; Musterd, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the debate on urban and regional competitiveness, it has become fashionable to stress the growing importance of creativity for economic development. Especially scientist-consultants with a keen eye for what politicians and business people want to hear have taken centre stage in this discussion.

  17. The potential for pneumococcal vaccination in Hajj pilgrims: expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Harunor; Abdul Muttalif, Abdul Razak; Mohamed Dahlan, Zuraimi Bin; Djauzi, Samsuridjal; Iqbal, Zafar; Karim, Hj Matnoh; Naeem, Syed Muhammad; Tantawichien, Terapong; Zotomayor, Ricardo; Patil, Shilpa; Schmitt, Heinz-Josef

    2013-01-01

    Hajj is the annual pilgrimage to Mecca in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and is one of the largest mass gathering events in the world. Acute respiratory tract infections are very common during Hajj, primarily as a result of close contact among pilgrims, intense congestion, shared accommodation and air pollution. A number of vaccines are (or have been) recommended for Hajj pilgrims in recent years. Several additional vaccines could significantly reduce the morbidity and mortality at Hajj and should be considered in health recommendations for pilgrims. Pneumococcal vaccines (particularly for those aged >65 years) are widely available, and have been shown to reduce the burden of disease associated with Streptococcus pneumoniae infection. Importantly, a considerable percentage of Hajj pilgrims have pre-existing illnesses or are elderly, both important risk factors for pneumococcal infection. While there are substantial gaps that need to be addressed regarding our knowledge of the exact burden of disease in Hajj pilgrims and the effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in this population, S. pneumoniae may be an important cause of illness among this group of travelers. It can be assumed that the majority of pneumococcal serotypes circulating during Hajj are included in the existing pneumococcal vaccines. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The Delphi Method: Gathering Expert Opinion in Religious Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumfield, Vivienne M.; Conroy, James C.; Davis, Robert A.; Lundie, David C.

    2012-01-01

    The "Does Religious Education work?" project is part of the Religion and Society programme funded by two major research councils in the UK. It sets out to track the trajectory of Religious Education (RE) in secondary schools in the UK from the aims and intentions represented in policy through its enactment in classroom practice to the…

  19. Building legitimacy by criticising the pharmaceutical industry: a qualitative study among prescribers and local opinion leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittet, Anne-Laure; Saraga, Michael; Stiefel, Friedrich

    2015-01-01

    The literature has described opinion leaders not only as marketing tools of the pharmaceutical industry, but also as educators promoting good clinical practice. This qualitative study addresses the distinction between the opinion-leader-as-marketing-tool and the opinion-leader-as-educator, as it is revealed in the discourses of physicians and experts, focusing on the prescription of antidepressants. We explore the relational dynamic between physicians, opinion leaders and the pharmaceutical industry in an area of French-speaking Switzerland. Qualitative content analysis of 24 semistructured interviews with physicians and local experts in psychopharmacology, complemented by direct observation of educational events led by the experts, which were all sponsored by various pharmaceutical companies. Both physicians and experts were critical of the pharmaceutical industry and its use of opinion leaders. Local experts, in contrast, were perceived by the physicians as critical of the industry and, therefore, as a legitimate source of information. Local experts did not consider themselves opinion leaders and argued that they remained intellectually independent from the industry. Field observations confirmed that local experts criticised the industry at continuing medical education events. Local experts were vocal critics of the industry, which nevertheless sponsor their continuing education. This critical attitude enhanced their credibility in the eyes of the prescribing physicians. We discuss how the experts, despite their critical attitude, might still be beneficial to the industry's interests.

  20. Expert witness perceptions of bias in experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commons, Michael Lamport; Miller, Patrice Marie; Gutheil, Thomas G

    2004-01-01

    A pilot study of perceptions of different sources of expert bias, as well as of personal investment in case outcomes, was performed among attendees at a workshop at an annual meeting of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law. Participants were asked to rate hypothetical responses by experts to various case outcomes and the biasing potential of different kinds of situations for opposing or other experts. A factor analysis produced two factors. Factor 1 included questions about situations that were obviously biasing (such as working only for the defense). Factor 2 included questions assessing the potential of certain situations to cause bias in experts, or how likely experts thought other experts were to be biased. In general, experts identified only four areas to be overtly biasing. All occurred within situations in which experts worked only for one or the other side of civil or criminal cases. Experts otherwise thought other experts were reasonably bias free and well able to compensate for any bias when it occurred. The data suggest that experts may deal with bias by turning down cases that may cause them personal discomfort.

  1. Do Others’ Opinion Matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fei; Xiao, Bo Sophia; Lim, Eric T. K.

    2016-01-01

    rating and opinionated review, consumers can perceive cognitive dissonance between the former and the latter. This cognitive dissonance can hinder the formation of consumers’ trust and compel them to resolve the conflict. Guided by confirmation bias theory, we propose that, to maintain trusting beliefs...... when experiencing dissonance in e-WOM, male consumers value opinionated review over numerical rating and vice versa for their female counterparts. The results of our field survey on a custom developed website with 115 college students empirically validated our hypothesized relationships and also...... unveiled male’s general bias towards opinionated review. Our findings can contribute to both research and practice....

  2. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  3. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increase interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert system is a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology of ...

  4. Perception of risks by opinion leaders 2011; 2011 Perception des risques par des leaders d'opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    The authors report a survey made just after the Fukushima accident on a panel of opinion leaders (belonging to political, economical or media sector) in order to compare their perception of risks with that of the public. The questions addressed the perception of risks, the role of scientific experts, the usefulness and breaks on the diffusion of expertise results, the perception of pluralist bodies, and the Fukushima accident. The answers are analysed and discussed with respect to fifteen hazardous situations, to their opinion of expertise, and to their opinion on safety audit and information

  5. Heterodoxy, iconoclasm and spuriousness: the limits of novel expert evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freckelton, Ian

    2007-12-01

    A difficult issue arises for courts' decision-making at common law and under statutory evidentiary regimes when expert opinions are significantly unorthodox, iconoclastic or methodologically flawed. This editorial analyses the relevant evidentiary principles and the Australian jurisprudence on the subject, giving particular attention to the decisions of the South Australian Supreme Court in R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 143 and R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 316 in which expert opinions about the existence, identifiability and transmissibility of HIV and its relationship to AIDS adduced on behalf of the defence in a criminal trial were found to be seriously wanting. A variety of factors indicative of low probative value in expert opinions are distilled.

  6. Comparative Opinion Mining: A Review

    OpenAIRE

    Varathan, Kasturi Dewi; Giachanou, Anastasia; Crestani, Fabio

    2017-01-01

    Opinion mining refers to the use of natural language processing, text analysis and computational linguistics to identify and extract subjective information in textual material. Opinion mining, also known as sentiment analysis, has received a lot of attention in recent times, as it provides a number of tools to analyse the public opinion on a number of different topics. Comparative opinion mining is a subfield of opinion mining that deals with identifying and extracting information that is exp...

  7. A teledentistry system for the second opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambino, Orazio; Lima, Fausto; Pirrone, Roberto; Ardizzone, Edoardo; Campisi, Giuseppina; di Fede, Olga

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a Teledentistry system aimed to the Second Opinion task. It make use of a particular camera called intra-oral camera, also called dental camera, in order to perform the photo shooting and real-time video of the inner part of the mouth. The pictures acquired by the Operator with such a device are sent to the Oral Medicine Expert (OME) by means of a current File Transfer Protocol (FTP) service and the real-time video is channeled into a video streaming thanks to the VideoLan client/server (VLC) application. It is composed by a HTML5 web-pages generated by PHP and allows to perform the Second Opinion both when Operator and OME are logged and when one of them is offline.

  8. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  9. Survey of Students' Opinions as a Strategy for Improving Lerner ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of the subject discipline, the society and its culture, the ideas of educational philosophers and curriculum experts, and that no conscious effort is normally made to consult the learners for opinions even at the secondary and tertiary education levels, the deschoolers have accused the school of teaching a hidden curriculum.

  10. Opinions on a strategy to promote nurses\\' health research ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This is the second article in a series of three articles on a strategy to promote nurses' health research contribution in South Africa. This article describes a Delphi study that was conducted to explore the panel of experts' opinions on nurses' health research contribution and to develop a strategy to promote this contribution.

  11. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  12. Anisotropic opinion dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  13. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  14. Introduction to expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jackson, P.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems have become one of the most exciting applications within the domain of artificial intelligence. Further interest has been provoked by Japan's Fifth Generation Project, which identifies expert or knowledge-based systems as a key element in the computer systems of the future. This book presents an introduction to expert systems at a level suited to the undergraduate student and the interested layman. It surveys the three main techniques for knowledge representation - rules, frames and logic. and describes in detail the expert systems which employ them. Contents: Expert systems and artificial intelligence; Formalisms for knowledge representation; MYCIN; Medical diagnosis using rules. MYCIN derivatives; TEIRESIAS, EMYCIN, and GUIDON; RI: recognition as a problem-solving strategy; CENTAUR: a combination of frames metalevel inference and commonsense reasoning in MECHO; Tools for building expert systems; Summary and conclusions; Exercises.

  15. Extracting Gamers' Opinions from Reviews

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sirbu, Dorinela; Secui, Ana; Dascalu, Mihai; Crossley, Scott; Ruseti, Stefan; Trausan-Matu, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    Opinion mining and sentiment analysis are a trending research domain in Natural Language Processing focused on automatically extracting subjective information, feelings, opinions, ideas or emotions from texts. Our study is centered on identifying sentiments and opinions, as well as other latent

  16. Opinion strength influences the spatial dynamics of opinion formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgaertner, Bert O; Tyson, Rebecca T; Krone, Stephen M

    2016-01-01

    Opinions are rarely binary; they can be held with different degrees of conviction, and this expanded attitude spectrum can affect the influence one opinion has on others. Our goal is to understand how different aspects of influence lead to recognizable spatio-temporal patterns of opinions and their strengths. To do this, we introduce a stochastic spatial agent-based model of opinion dynamics that includes a spectrum of opinion strengths and various possible rules for how the opinion strength of one individual affects the influence that this individual has on others. Through simulations, we find that even a small amount of amplification of opinion strength through interaction with like-minded neighbors can tip the scales in favor of polarization and deadlock.

  17. Travel opinion leaders and seekers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yoo, Kyung-Hyan; Gretzel, Ulrike; Zach, Florian

    2011-01-01

    While opinion leadership has been recognized as important in tourism, there has been very little empirical research investigating the phenomenon. Given new developments in social media technologies, it is especially important to understand whether travel opinion leadership and seeking are drivers...... of specific social media perceptions and behaviours. Based on an online survey of US online travellers, this paper seeks to identify travel opinion leaders and seekers and their characteristics. Further, the research conducted investigated linkages between travel opinion leadership/seeking and travel social...... media use. The findings suggest that travel opinion leadership and seeking are distinct but connected. Both opinion leaders and seekers are technology savvy, young, educated, involved in travel planning and engaged in social media use for travel. What distinguishes opinion leaders is their greater...

  18. How Expert Designers Design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dr. Peter Sloep; J. van Merrienboer; C. Carr; P. Kirschner

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses two studies - the one in a business context, the other in a university context - carried out with expert educational designers. The studies aimed to determine the priorities experts claim to employ when designing competence-based learning environments. Designers in both contexts

  19. Expert Systems in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartschuh, Wayne

    This paper argues that the concepts and techniques used in the development of expert systems should be expanded and applied to the field of education, particularly in the area of intelligent tutoring systems. It is noted that expert systems are a well known area of artificial intelligence and have been proven effective in well-defined topic areas.…

  20. Social Influence and the Collective Dynamics of Opinion Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E.; Analytis, Pantelis P.; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority. PMID:24223805

  1. Social influence and the collective dynamics of opinion formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E; Analytis, Pantelis P; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.

  2. Opinion leadership types or continuous opinion leadership traits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnambs, Timo

    2017-07-04

    Opinion leadership is typically conceptualised as a continuous personality trait. However, many authors adhere to the view of qualitatively different opinion leadership types and apply arbitrary criteria to split continuous trait scores into two groups (i.e., opinion leaders vs. non-leaders). The present study is the first to empirically evaluate this approach. A sample of N = 3812 adults (67% women) was administered a validated opinion leadership scale. Finite mixture models examined whether the latent trait distribution can be represented by a set of discrete trait levels that reflected distinct opinion leadership types. The results did not give support to a discrete typology that distinguished leaders from non-leaders. Rather, opinion leadership was best characterised as a continuous trait. © 2017 International Union of Psychological Science.

  3. [Advance directives. Representatives' opinions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busquets I Font, J M; Hernando Robles, P; Font I Canals, R; Diestre Ortin, G; Quintana, S

    The use and usefulness of Advance Directives has led to a lot of controversy about their validity and effectiveness. Those areas are unexplored in our country from the perspective of representatives. To determine the opinion of the representatives appointed in a registered Statement of Advance Directives (SAD) on the use of this document. Telephone survey of representatives of 146 already dead people and who, since February 2012, had registered a SAD document. More the two-thirds (98) of respondents recalled that the SAD was consulted, with 86 (58.9%) saying that their opinion as representative was consulted, and 120 (82.1%) believe that the patient's will was respected. Of those interviewed, 102 (69.9%) believe that patients who had previously planned their care using a SAD had a good death, with 33 (22.4%) saying it could have been better, and 10 (6.9%) believe they suffered greatly. The SAD were mostly respected and consulted, and possibly this is related to the fact that most of the representatives declare that the death of those they represented was perceived as comfortable. It would be desirable to conduct further studies addressed at health personnel in order to know their perceptions regarding the use of Advance Directives in the process of dying. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. EXPLICIT: a feasibility study of remote expert elicitation in health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigore, Bogdan; Peters, Jaime; Hyde, Christopher; Stein, Ken

    2017-09-04

    Expert opinion is often sought to complement available information needed to inform model-based economic evaluations in health technology assessments. In this context, we define expert elicitation as the process of encoding expert opinion on a quantity of interest, together with associated uncertainty, as a probability distribution. When availability for face-to-face expert elicitation with a facilitator is limited, elicitation can be conducted remotely, overcoming challenges of finding an appropriate time to meet the expert and allowing access to experts situated too far away for practical face-to-face sessions. However, distance elicitation is associated with reduced response rates and limited assistance for the expert during the elicitation session. The aim of this study was to inform the development of a remote elicitation tool by exploring the influence of mode of elicitation on elicited beliefs. An Excel-based tool (EXPLICIT) was developed to assist the elicitation session, including the preparation of the expert and recording of their responses. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to provide expert opinion about population alcohol consumption behaviours. They were randomised to complete the elicitation by either a face-to-face meeting or email. EXPLICIT was used in the elicitation sessions for both arms. Fifteen GPs completed the elicitation session. Those conducted by email were longer than the face-to-face sessions (13 min 30 s vs 10 min 26 s, p = 0.1) and the email-elicited estimates contained less uncertainty. However, the resulting aggregated distributions were comparable. EXPLICIT was useful in both facilitating the elicitation task and in obtaining expert opinion from experts via email. The findings support the opinion that remote, self-administered elicitation is a viable approach within the constraints of HTA to inform policy making, although poor response rates may be observed and additional time for individual sessions may be required.

  5. Expert F# 20

    CERN Document Server

    Syme, Don; Cisternino, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Expert F# 2.0 is about practical programming in a beautiful language that puts the power and elegance of functional programming into the hands of professional developers. In combination with .NET, F# achieves unrivaled levels of programmer productivity and program clarity. Expert F# 2.0 is * The authoritative guide to F# by the inventor of F# * A comprehensive reference of F# concepts, syntax, and features * A treasury of expert F# techniques for practical, real-world programming F# isn't just another functional programming language. It's a general-purpose language ideal for real-world develop

  6. Benchmarking expert system tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Gary

    1988-01-01

    As part of its evaluation of new technologies, the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Div. at NASA-Johnson has made timing tests of several expert system building tools. Among the production systems tested were Automated Reasoning Tool, several versions of OPS5, and CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), an expert system builder developed by the AI section. Also included in the test were a Zetalisp version of the benchmark along with four versions of the benchmark written in Knowledge Engineering Environment, an object oriented, frame based expert system tool. The benchmarks used for testing are studied.

  7. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

  8. Public authority control strategy for opinion evolution in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Xiong, Xi; Zhang, Minghong; Li, Wei

    2016-08-01

    This paper addresses the need to deal with and control public opinion and rumors. Existing strategies to control public opinion include degree, random, and adaptive bridge control strategies. In this paper, we use the HK model to present a public opinion control strategy based on public authority (PA). This means utilizing the influence of expert or high authority individuals whose opinions we control to obtain the optimum effect in the shortest time possible and thus reach a consensus of public opinion. Public authority (PA) is only influenced by individuals' attributes (age, economic status, and education level) and not their degree distribution; hence, in this paper, we assume that PA complies with two types of public authority distribution (normal and power-law). According to the proposed control strategy, our experiment is based on random, degree, and public authority control strategies in three different social networks (small-world, scale-free, and random) and we compare and analyze the strategies in terms of convergence time (T), final number of controlled agents (C), and comprehensive efficiency (E). We find that different network topologies and the distribution of the PA in the network can influence the final controlling effect. While the effect of PA strategy differs in different network topology structures, all structures achieve comprehensive efficiency with any kind of public authority distribution in any network. Our findings are consistent with several current sociological phenomena and show that in the process of public opinion/rumor control, considerable attention should be paid to high authority individuals.

  9. Factors influencing continuing professional development : A Delphi study among nursing experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, G.B.; Poell, R.F.; van Wijk, K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing

  10. Pejorative testimony about opposing experts and colleagues: "fouling one's own nest".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutheil, Thomas G; Schetky, Diane H; Simon, Robert I

    2006-01-01

    Circumstances sometimes require expert witnesses under oath to express opinions about opposing experts or professional colleagues who work within their own professional, geographic, or organizational circle. This requirement poses some common problems that have not been well discussed in the literature. This article addresses some of those problems and suggests some useful solutions.

  11. Rossija kak faktor-irritant dlja politicheskoj jelity stran Baltii v kontekste jelektoral'nyh kampanij 2010—2011 godov: jekspertnyj vzgljad [Russia as an irritant factor for the political elitess of the Baltics in the context of election campaigns of 2010—2011: an expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vadim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an overview of the principal intellectual alternatives of today regarding the role and place of Russia in the social and political spaces of the former Baltic republics, which were articulated in the course of international expert discussions and round tables at the IKBFU.

  12. Your opinion counts

    CERN Multimedia

    2009-01-01

    The Human Resources Department will soon be launching an opinion poll for CERN staff members In his message to the CERN personnel, the new Director-General said "My New Year’s resolution involves managing CERN in a participative, democratic and inclusive manner". In the same spirit, the Human Resources (HR) Department plans to develop new channels of communication with CERN personnel. Dialogue is not always easy in an organization the size of CERN and, with this, its first survey, HR hopes to contribute towards it. In March this year, the HR Department will be sending an on-line questionnaire to all staff, giving you the opportunity to comment on your personal experiences of working life at CERN, your expectations and your commitment to the Organization. The initiative is the brainchild of the Head of the HR Department, Enrico Chiaveri, and the Deputy Department Head, Anne-Sylvie Catherin. A...

  13. GEOGRAPHY HOMEWORK. STUDENTS’ OPINIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Alin NICOLAE

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The topic of homework is constantly brought into discussion, not only by researchers or curriculum designers, but also by students, teachers and parents, its importance for learning quality being generally recognised. The present study aims to identify the views of a sample of 30 students from a high school with a vocational profile (economic. Their opinions are related to some aspects referring to the Geography homework: attractiveness, content (the types of tasks, the usefulness of homework in learning Geography, time spent by students in doing their homework, working methods, etc. Data were collected using a 30-item questionnaire. The responses received from the students acknowledge the importance of homework in the process of learning Geography.

  14. An Expert System for Analysis and Reporting of First Pass Radionuclide Ventriculograms

    OpenAIRE

    Lesser, Michael F.

    1989-01-01

    The Exercise First Pass Radionuclide Ventriculogram is a sophisticated imaging technique which is used in the diagnosis and management of coronary artery disease, the nations leading cause of death. An expert system, using rule based heuristics developed under the GURU (TM, MDBS) environment is described. This expert system produces completed, transcribed reports which concur with expert (Board Certified Cardiologists) cardiovascular opinions, approximately 95% of the time. Operator independe...

  15. Industrial marketing as review of opinion and realization problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarína Čulková

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available n place of every research and practical expert that is dealing witharea of industrial marketing we must say, that this area is notaccepted and elaborated as a marketing forconsumption subjects both from the view oftheoretical as well as practical. Such situationexists also abroad. In presented article we will search where obstacles for naturalization of marketing opinions of industrialmarketingin practice are. We will search some reasons that underlinecorrectness of mentioned argumentsdue to other till now not analyzedproblems.

  16. Peer Truth Serum: Incentives for Crowdsourcing Measurements and Opinions

    OpenAIRE

    Faltings, Boi; Jurca, Radu; Radanovic, Goran

    2017-01-01

    Modern decision making tools are based on statistical analysis of abundant data, which is often collected by querying multiple individuals. We consider data collection through crowdsourcing, where independent and self-interested agents, non-experts, report measurements, such as sensor readings, opinions, such as product reviews, or answers to human intelligence tasks. Since the accuracy of information is positively correlated with the effort invested in obtaining it, self-interested agents te...

  17. Media Securitization and Public Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roslyng-Jensen, Palle

    2015-01-01

    Pressedebatten om placering af og godkendelse af nye NATO-mellemdistanceraketter i Vesteuropa set ud fra den politiske debat og den offentlige opinion.......Pressedebatten om placering af og godkendelse af nye NATO-mellemdistanceraketter i Vesteuropa set ud fra den politiske debat og den offentlige opinion....

  18. Expert Oracle application express

    CERN Document Server

    Scott, John Edward

    2011-01-01

    Expert Oracle Application Express brings you groundbreaking insights into developing with Oracle's enterprise-level, rapid-development tool from some of the best practitioners in the field today. Oracle Application Express (APEX) is an entirely web-based development framework that is built into every edition of Oracle Database. The framework rests upon Oracle's powerful PL/SQL language, enabling power users and developers to rapidly develop applications that easily scale to hundreds, even thousands of concurrent users. The 13 authors of Expert Oracle Application Express build their careers aro

  19. Your opinion counts

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    Would you say that your work is stimulating? How do you feel about your working environment and working relationships? Are you proud to be part of this Organization? To find the answers to these questions, the Human Resources Department (HR) will be launching, for the first time, a staff member survey. Via an on-line questionnaire, you will have the opportunity to express your opinions about how you see your work, your expectations and your commitment to the Organization. This will promote dialogue at a turning point in CERN’s history with the start-up of the LHC. An HR steering group is now working on the preparation of this survey. A partnership is being developed with a university, which will play an active role in drawing up the questionnaire and will then carry out a confidential and objective analysis of your replies. Your participation will help the Management, in collaboration with HR, to identify action plans in line with the Organization’s aspirations and t...

  20. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  1. Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armen E Allahverdyan

    Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

  2. Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E; Galstyan, Aram

    2014-01-01

    Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

  3. Capital Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  4. Opinion Dynamics and Wisdom under Conformity

    OpenAIRE

    Buechel, Berno; Hellmann, Tim; Kölßner, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    We present a model of opinion formation where individuals repeatedly engage in discussion and update their opinion in a social network similarly to the DeGroot model. Abstracting from the standard assumption that individuals always report their opinion truthfully, agents in our model may state an opinion that differs from their true opinion. The incentive to do so is induced by agents' preferences for conformity. We model opinion formation as a dynamic process and identify conditions for conv...

  5. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  6. Opinion mining in Dutch Hansards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grijzenhout, S.; Jijkoun, V.; Marx, M.

    2010-01-01

    The question is addressed if opinion mining techniques can be successfully used to automatically retrieve political viewpoints in Dutch parliamentary publications. Two specific tasks are identified: automatically determining subjectivity in the publications and automatically determining the semantic

  7. Opinion Change: Information or Partisanship?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Mogens K.; Klemmensen, Robert; Leavitt, Thomas

    Currently two paradigms seek to explain how voters change their opinion when they are confronted with new information. One school argues that voters are bayesian updaters who rationally change their opinion. Another school argues that voters are inherently biased in their evaluation of new...... information. According to this line of thought voters are more likely to accept information that con_rms their opinion compared to information that contradict their point of view. Using a quasi experiment we investigate the extent to which voters rely on bayesian updating or on motivated reasoning when...... changing their opinions. We show that environmental concerns are more likely to change for voters who are moderately interested in politics and voters who are not strong partisans....

  8. Framework for Evaluating Camera Opinions

    OpenAIRE

    K.M. Subramanian; Venkatachalam, K

    2015-01-01

    Opinion mining plays a most important role in text mining applications in brand and product positioning, customer relationship management, consumer attitude detection and market research. The applications lead to new generation of companies/products meant for online market perception, online content monitoring and reputation management. Expansion of the web inspires users to contribute/express opinions via blogs, videos and social networking sites. Such platforms provide valuable information ...

  9. Balancer effects in opinion dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cheon, Taksu

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a novel type of contrarian agent, the balancer, to Galam model of opinion dynamics, in order to account for the skepticism over one-sidedness and for the sense of fairness. We find that the inclusion of balancers along with floaters and inflexibles brings about a critical point on parametric plane of the dynamical system, which results in the new kind of stable final states of the opinion dynamics, that seem to capture several intriguing features found often in mature democracies.

  10. Expert Script Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sliwa, Nancy E.; Cooper, Eric G.

    1991-01-01

    Program provides additional level of interface to facilitate use of telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is software package automatically generating high-level task objective commands from complex menu-driven language of the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Laboratory (ISRL). Makes telerobotics laboratory accessible to researchers not familiar with comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with various systems of ISRL test bed. Incorporates expert-system technology to capture typical rules of operation that skilled operator uses. Result: operator interfact optimizing ability of system to perform task remotely in hazardous environment, in timely manner, and without undue stress to operator, while minimizing change for operator erros that damage equipment. Written in CLIPS.

  11. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  12. Expert PLSQL Practices

    CERN Document Server

    Beresniewicz, John

    2011-01-01

    Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

  13. Evolution of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biancoli, L.

    1984-03-01

    A brief exposition of the nature and functions of expert systems (knowledge based systems) and some remarks upon the way in which they resemble, but fall far short of, the very largely intuitive action of the human brain are given. The remainder of the article consists of summaries of the work being done in this field by organisations in Italy, namely: ISPRA; Delphi Electronic Design Systems, VIAREGGIO; SPL Italia SPA, (VA), Milan; Italservice Srl, Milan; and Artificial Intelligence Software, Rovigo.

  14. Opinion dynamics in activity-driven networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dandan; Han, Dun; Ma, Jing; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Khouw, Timothy; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-10-01

    Social interaction between individuals constantly affects the development of their personal opinions. Previous models such as the Deffuant model and the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model have assumed that individuals only update their opinions after interacting with neighbors whose opinions are similar to their own. However, people are capable of communicating widely with all of their neighbors to gather their ideas and opinions, even if they encounter a number of opposing attitudes. We propose a model in which agents listen to the opinions of all their neighbors. Continuous opinion dynamics are investigated in activity-driven networks with a tolerance threshold. We study how the initial opinion distribution, tolerance threshold, opinion-updating speed, and activity rate affect the evolution of opinion. We find that when the initial fraction of positive opinion is small, all opinions become negative by the end of the simulation. As the initial fraction of positive opinions rises above a certain value —about 0.45— the final fraction of positive opinions sharply increases and eventually equals 1. Increased tolerance threshold δ is found to lead to a more varied final opinion distribution. We also find that if the negative opinion has an initial advantage, the final fraction of negative opinion increases and reaches its peak as the updating speed λ approaches 0.5. Finally we show that the lower the activity rate of individuals, the greater the fluctuation range of their opinions.

  15. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  16. Attorneys' requests for complete tax records from opposing expert witnesses: some approaches to the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutheil, Thomas G; Simon, Robert I; Simpson, Skip

    2006-01-01

    As part of an impeachment attempt on cross-examination of opposing expert witnesses in trial or deposition, the cross-examining attorney may request the complete tax records of the expert. It is widely believed that expert witnesses may be expected to express opinions that favor the parties who engage them and who pay their fees. Theoretically, the purpose of this request is an attempt to paint the expert as a "hired gun" whose major source of income is forensic work. The different issues, statutes, and case law citations that bear on requests for tax records are reviewed, and the strategies for coping with this tactic are suggested.

  17. Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

    2014-01-01

    Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

  18. [Medico-legal opinions in penal cases provided by clinicians and forensic medicine specialists--comparative analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Nowak, Agnieszka

    2005-01-01

    From the practice of the Forensic Medicine Department, Medical University of Silesia, Katowice it appears that in criminal cases the level of medico-legal opinions provided by experts appointed by the district court or 'ad hoc' is very low. The analysis of the chosen files shoved a divergence of opinions given to the adopted motions as well as numerous offences to regulations in the nature of a consultative error. In the paper the authors have made an attempt to appraise causes of the above mentioned problems such as: 1. the lack of medico-legal knowledge and experience in court experts. 2. excessive ease of registration to the panel of court experts and the lack of processes which verify the qualifications of experts. 3. the lack of judicial control over expert's opinions and common acceptance of their work. 4. ignorance of the obligatory penal law. 5. ignorance of the basic rules for giving medico-legal opinions (legal consequences, casual nexus). 6. excessive but groundless self-confidence in experts. 7. the lack of a correct way of thinking and conclusion making. The aim of the paper was to pay close attention to the absolute need of verification of court experts' qualifications and work.

  19. Bipolar Neutrosophic Soft Expert Sets

    OpenAIRE

    Şahin, Mehmet; Deli, İrfan; Uluçay, Vakkas

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce concept of bipolar neutrosophic soft expert set and its some operations. Also, we propose score, certainty and accuracy functions to compare the bipolar neutrosophic soft expert sets. We give examples for these concepts. 

  20. Limitations of Expert Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Serpil Salaçin

    1997-01-01

    Limitations of Expert Evidence Edited by Stephen Leadbeatter MB ChB MCRPath ISBN 1 86016 029 8 Printed in Great Britain by Cathedral Print Services Ltd, Salisbury, 1996 Kitap 25 Ekim 1994 te The Royal College of Physicians ve The Royal College of Pathologists tarafından düzenlenen konferanstan sonra hekimlere ve avukatlara konuyu tartışmaya açmak için basılmış. Bilirkişi görüşünün temel filozofisinin, bu görevi yapanlar ve bu hizmeti alanların yapabileceklerin...

  1. Expert Oracle Exadata

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua

  2. Expert Systems - A Natural History

    OpenAIRE

    Shadbolt, N. R.

    1989-01-01

    This paper examines the origins, current state and future prospects for expert systems. The origins are traced from the schism with classic Artificial Intelligence. The characteristics of early expert systems are described and contrasted with more recent developments. A number of influential forces operating on present day systems are reviewed. The future trends in the evolution of expert systems are discussed.

  3. [The criteria for appointing experts in forensic medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vojtíšek, Tomáš

    2015-01-01

    In the Czech Republic, forensic medicine is an independent medical field, in which physicians with the appropriate attestation perform expert activities, especially in criminal proceedings, after being formally appointed by a regional court. In order to improve the quality of the activities provided by these experts, the Ministry of Justice is endeavouring to tighten up the general conditions for the appointment of new forensic experts. The individual criteria do not, however, take into account the special nature of forensic medicine as a medical field, the very essence of which involves the specialist qualifications which are necessary for the provision of expert opinions, most frequently to the police. In particular, the introduction of a strict requirement for ten-years of work experience after leaving medical school has hindered and stalled the entrance of young physicians with completed post-graduate studies into the area of forensic medicine. An inquiry sent to the regional courts has discovered that the average length of work experience for newly appointed experts in the period from 2004 to 2013 was 8.2 years, that half of them had work experience of seven years or less and that 75 percent of the newly appointed experts did not meet any set requirements for the length of their work experience at the time of their appointment. The new conditions may have a negative impact on attracting qualified graduates to forensic medicine after the completion of their medical studies and in the long term it may endanger the ability of the field of forensic medicine to provide expert opinions in criminal proceedings. In conclusion, it is the authors opinion that the appointment conditions should be set in cooperation with the professional medical associations and that they should take into account the specific characteristics of the individual medical fields, especially if they are to be set directly by means of a legal regulation within the framework of the recodification

  4. Neuropsychologist experts and neurolaw: cases, controversies, and admissibility challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Paul M

    2013-01-01

    Clinical neuropsychologists engage increasingly in forensic consulting activities because such expert opinions are generally relevant, reliable and helpful in resolving certain legal claims, especially those related to traumatic brain injury. Consequently, practitioners of law, medicine and psychology would benefit from understanding the nature of neuropsychological evidence, the standards for its admissibility, and its expanding role in neurolaw. This article reviews important evidentiary rules regulating relevance, preliminary questions, and expert testimony, while tracing federal key court decisions and progeny. Civil and criminal cases are detailed to illustrate the application of these rules and case law to neuropsychological evidence, with suggestions for overcoming motions to exclude such evidence. Expert neuropsychologists have a role in forensic consultation on brain trauma cases, even as the interdisciplinary dialog and understanding among law, medicine, and psychology continues to expand. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Bing

    2012-01-01

    Sentiment analysis and opinion mining is the field of study that analyzes people's opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions from written language. It is one of the most active research areas in natural language processing and is also widely studied in data mining, Web mining, and text mining. In fact, this research has spread outside of computer science to the management sciences and social sciences due to its importance to business and society as a whole. The growing importance of sentiment analysis coincides with the growth of social media such as reviews, forum discussions

  6. [Disease--defence--manipulation: the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry opinions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitzman, Janusz; Opio, Małgorzata; Waszkiewicz-Białek, Ewa

    2008-01-01

    The challenges met by the psychiatrist and the psychologist and the difficulties in providing forensic-psychiatry and forensic-psychology opinions have been reviewed, based on examples. The studied patient was hospitalised 10 times and the forensic-psychiatry opinion passed 15 times during the judiciary process. Different psychiatric diagnoses were made and different soundness of mind were passed. The psychiatric health status were expresses by professors of psychiatry who did not participate directly in passing the forensic-psychiatry opinion. The studied patient was examined by other specialists and assessed by certificating medical doctors with the aim of getting disability pension benefits. The effect of medical certificates and testimonials from different medical doctors were analysed. Analysing this example, revealed the problem of proper formulation of content of medical documents to support the medical diagnosis and declared soundness of mind during the passing of forensic-psychiatry opinion. The doctors treating the patients and doctors passing opinion on the treated patient had a different assessment of the diagnoses and soundness of mind for the studied patients. Irrespective of the immediate aim of the examinations, all professionals providing assessment should mind the consequences of opinions passed by them and especially, the possibility of the opinion being used by the subject to prolong the judiciary process or even avoid legal responsibility. The independence (sovereignty) of the expert requires consideration in the context of prior multiple forensic-psychiatry opinion leaders in the field of psychiatry and the need for the expert to assume an attitude towards these opinions.

  7. Opinions of University Music Teachers on the Musical Competencies Necessary for Primary Education Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begic, Jasna Šulentic; Begic, Amir; Škojo, Tihana

    2017-01-01

    This paper describes the research conducted in the Republic of Croatia during the 2012/13 academic year. We have gathered opinions from experts, i.e. teaching methods teachers from seven faculties of teacher education, regarding the music teaching competencies necessary for primary education teachers teaching music in the first several grades of…

  8. How to find an expert in case of problems; Der passende Gutachter. Die Kunst, im Problemfall einen guten Sachverstaendigen zu finden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rutschmann, Ines

    2012-07-15

    According to experts, faulty installation is the case in many PV plants. Experts in Germany therefore have much to do to draw up opinions in cases of liability and claims for damages. The experts market has become turbulent. There are newcomers, training courses, new certificates, and new qualifications. It is difficult to assess when to use which expert. This contribution attempts to throw some light on the issue.

  9. Let the Experts Decide?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morton, Rebecca; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    in information quality is large, we find that voting groups largely coordinate on the SVC equilibrium which is also Pareto Optimal. However, we find that when the asymmetry in information quality is not large and the Pareto Optimal equilibrium is for all to participate, significant numbers of voters with low...... quality information abstain. Furthermore, we find that information asymmetry induces voters with low quality information to coordinate on a non-equilibrium outcome. This suggests that coordination on "letting the experts" decide is a likely voting norm that sometimes validates SVC equilibrium predictions......We examine abstention when voters in standing committees are asymmetrically informed and there are multiple pure strategy equilibria-swing voter's curse (SVC) equilibria where voters with low quality information abstain and equilibria when all participants vote their information. When the asymmetry...

  10. Public opinion and terrorist acts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Malečková, Jitka; Stanišić, Dragana

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 27, Sup. 1 (2011), S107-S121 ISSN 0176-2680 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : support for terrorism * public opinion * international terrorism Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.437, year: 2011

  11. Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

    Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

  12. EXTENSION WORKERS' OPINIONS REGARDING THE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The primary purpose of the study was to determine extension worker's opinions regarding the influence of the National Maize Competition (NAMCOM) on the farmers' agricultural practices and experiences in the Manzini region. A census population of front-line extension workers in charge of the participating areas in ...

  13. Opinions, Bots, and Public Spaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiewiura, Joachim Schmidt; Hendricks, Vincent Fella

    2017-01-01

    What is the real distribution of various attitudes or opinions across social media? A lesson from social psychology gives reason to believe that people, with negligible exceptions, assess and navigate socially on the basis of what other people express to believe or know. This is in line with the ...

  14. Part of an observatory of opinions on risks; Role d'un observatoire des opinions sur les risques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenot, J. [CEA/Fontenay-aux-Roses, Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire (IPSN), 92 (France)

    1999-07-01

    An observatory of opinions about risks constitutes the frame in which can be developed exchanges between research workers, engineers, experts, persons in charge of authorities and societies managers for who the way whom the public takes into account the risks constitutes an element of the management, the decision or the communication. The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (I.P.S.N.) has, with the passing of the years, build a such observatory whom activities are developed according to several directions. (N.C.)

  15. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub

  16. Office of the Solicitor Solicitor Opinions

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of the Solicitor, Department of the Interior — List of opinions issued by the Department of Interior Office of the Solicitor, organized by opinion number, as a part of decision-making by administrative...

  17. Expert systems for satellite stationkeeping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekaru, M. M.; Wright, M. A.

    The feasibility of implementing artificial intelligence on satellites is evaluated, with the aim of using an onboard expert system to perform effective stationkeeping functions without assistance from the ground. The Defense Satellite Communication System (DSCS III) is used as an example. The cost for implementing a satellite stationkeeping expert system is analyzed. A ground-based expert system could reduce the current number of support personnel for the stationkeeping task. Results of analyzing a possible flight system are quite promising. An expert system for satellite stationkeeping seems feasible, appears cost-effective, and offers increased satellite endurance through autonomous operations.

  18. Galen. On My Own Opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeny Afonasin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Galen’s last work, De propriis placitis (On my own opinions has a very complex textual history. Except to few extracts, the Greek original of the treatise is lost. The last two chapters of the treatise, entitled On the substance of natural faculties, circulated independently in a fourteenth century translation into Latin by Niccolò da Reggio. The main body of treatise is preserved in a medieval Latin translation made from an Arabic translation (as numerous words, transliterated from the Arabic, testify. There is also a quote in Hebrew. Fortunately, some time ago V. Nutton (1999 published an excellent commented edition of the treatise. It was proven indispensable for the present study, as well as a recent publication of a newly discovered Greek text by Boudon-Millot and Pietrobelli (2005. The treatise, important for understanding of Galen’s various opinions, certainly deserves a close study. It is now translated into the Russian for the first time.

  19. Dentists' opinions on using digital technologies in dental practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Zande, Marieke M; Gorter, Ronald C; Bruers, Josef J M; Aartman, Irene H A; Wismeijer, Daniel

    2017-10-06

    To investigate which opinions among dentists are associated with level of technology use, when characteristics of the dentist and dental practice, as well as motivating work aspects are taken into account. A total of 1000 general dental practitioners in the Netherlands received a questionnaire on digital technologies they use, opinions on using technologies and related motivating work aspects. Questions were derived from expert interviews, the Dentists' Experienced Job Resources Scale and literature on technology implementation. Technology use was measured as the number of technologies used, and divided into three technology user groups: low (using 0-4 technologies, mostly administrative and radiographic technologies), intermediate (using 5-7, more varied technologies) and high technology users (using 8-12, including more innovative diagnostic technologies). Opinions on technology use and motivating work aspects were analysed using principal components analysis (PCA) and exploratory factor analysis. Scores on all components and factors were calculated for each respondent by computing the mean of all valid responses on the underlying items. Differences in these scale scores on opinions among the technology user groups were assessed using one-way analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis tests. A multiple linear regression analysis assessed the association of scale scores about opinions on technology use with the sum of technologies used, taking into account motivating work aspects and characteristics of the dentist and dental practice. The response rate was 31%. Dentists who were high technology users perceived technologies as yielding more improvements in quality of care, adding more value to the dental practice and being easier to use, than low technology users. High technology users thought technologies added more value to their work and they reported higher skills and resources. They also focused more on technologies and thought these are more ready to use than

  20. Elite Polarization and Public Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robison, Joshua; Mullinix, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    Elite polarization has reshaped American politics and is an increasingly salient aspect of news coverage within the United States. As a consequence, a burgeoning body of research attempts to unravel the effects of elite polarization on the mass public. However, we know very little about how polar...... of the consequences of elite polarization—and how polarization is communicated—for public opinion and political behavior in democratic politics....

  1. Identifying the Essential Elements of Effective Science Communication: What Do the Experts Say?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, Belinda; France, Bev; Gilbert, John K.

    2012-01-01

    Experts in science communication were asked to identify the essential elements of a science communication course for post-graduate students. A Delphi methodology provided a framework for a research design that accessed their opinions and allowed them to contribute to, reflect on and identify 10 essential elements. There was a high level of…

  2. Data for comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    The data we used for this study include species occurrence data (n=15 species), climate data and predictions, an expert opinion questionnaire, and species masks that represented the model domain for each species. For this data release, we include the results of the expert opinion questionnaire and the species model domains (or masks). We developed an expert opinion questionnaire to gather information on expert opinion regarding the importance of climate variables in determining a species geographic range. The species masks, or model domains, were defined separately for each species using a variation of the “target-group” approach (Phillips et al. 2009), where the domain was determined using convex polygons including occurrence data for at least three phylogenetically related and similar species (Watling et al. 2012). The species occurrence data, climate data, and climate predictions are freely available online, and therefore not included in this data release. The species occurrence data were obtained from the online database Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org/), and from scientific literature (Watling et al. 2011). Climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database (Hijmans et al. 2005) and climate predictions were obtained from the Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University (https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/resources/data-sets/regional-downscaling). See metadata for references.

  3. [To attach importance to expert commentary and to grasp the orientation in academic development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Shouzhi

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to make authors and readers master some writing and reading skills by elaborating the definition, characteristics, the comparison of style and writing technique of expert commentary. Expert commentary is journal editorial that is not only author's personal point of view, but also the collective opinions of Ophthalmology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and editorial board of the magazine. Therefore, it should be view clear, clear-cut stand and having certain academic orientation. It is our common responsibility to promote the academic development of ophthalmology in China, by mobilizing various aspects strength, carefully written and read expert commentary.

  4. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  5. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    raoul

    23 mai 2011 ... coût due au fait que ces prestations de services ont lieu en milieu rural ou dans des zones faiblement peuplées. De même en Ouganda, les allocations de ressources aux districts dans le cadre du budget pour les soins de santé primaire prennent en compte l'indice de développement humain et le niveau ...

  6. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2012-07-24

    Jul 24, 2012 ... response to errors. This article identifies the peculiar socioeconomic and cultural challenges that may hinder disclosure and proposes strategies for instituting disclosure of errors and adverse events services in Sub-Saharan Africa. Pan African Medical Journal. 2012; 12:82. This article is available online at: ...

  7. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2017-06-08

    Jun 8, 2017 ... candidate. This individual assessment policy seems less discriminatory and can assess potential donors regardless of their sexual orientation and strictly based on what is described as "risky sexual behavior". Conclusion. The lesbian, bisexual, transgender/two-spirited and queer. (LGBTQ+) community has ...

  8. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    raoul

    2011-10-03

    Oct 3, 2011 ... Key words: Evidence based planning, Nigeria, Cost analysis, Nigeria ... With scaling up effective health interventions towards achieving the health-related ... which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any ...

  9. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2012-06-21

    Jun 21, 2012 ... Abstract. In the Kenyan medical educations system, one has to go through one year of internship after graduating from medical school in order to be licensed to practise medicine. This internship period is laden with work to the extent of overwhelming and stressing the medical officer interns. Irrespective of ...

  10. OPINION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-03-01

    Mar 1, 2012 ... Chris Kenyon, MB ChB, MA, MPH. Sizwe Zondo, MA. Robert Colebunders, MD, PhD. Sipho Dlamini, MB ChB, FCP .... Pettifor A, Levandowski B, Macphail C, Miller W, Tabor J. A tale of two countries: rethinking sexual risk for HIV among young people in South Africa and the United States. J Adolesc Health ...

  11. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Raoul

    2012-03-19

    Mar 19, 2012 ... Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted ... the huge cost it would incur. ... In the case of active case detection, the health care workers actively search for the cases and help.

  12. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2016-09-21

    Sep 21, 2016 ... The Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), caused by the. Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains a major global public health problem; particularly in the Sub-Saharan region. Despite the fact that incidence shows declining trends (2.1 million new HIV infections in 2013; a decline of 38% ...

  13. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2016-09-21

    article/25/18/full/ ... The Pan African Medical Journal - ISSN 1937-8688. .... The construction and maintenance of heavy industries as well as the processes involved in drug manufacturing requires extensive man power. This.

  14. Opinion

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    abp

    2017-06-08

    Jun 8, 2017 ... During the 1980s the HIV/AIDS epidemic outbreak occurred. Due to the high ... 2017; 27:99 doi:10.11604/pamj.2017.27.99.12891. This article is .... hand, heterosexual men who had multiple sexual partners and unprotected ...

  15. Valoración del Informe Pericial sobre la Custodia de Menores en Sentencias Judiciales: Estudio comparativo entre informes privados y oficiales (Expert Assessment Report on Child Custody in Court Judgments: Comparative study between private and official reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carles Rodríguez-Domínguez

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In Spain, divorce with children involved has led to a substantial increase in demand for expert reports. The aim was to analyse the valuation judgments of private forensic expert reports with specific training, private forensic expert reports without specific training and, expert reports of psychosocial teams of the Courts on the custody and visitation of the parent no custodian. Ad hoc protocol made by the authors to 111 litigation files of Family Courts was applied. Significant differences in the evaluations expressed by judicial decisions on private expert reports and the expert reports of psychosocial teams were found. Analysis suggests that the judgments expressed a favourable opinion with preference for expert reports made by employees assigned to family courts psychosocial teams. Direct empirical evidence is provided. 56.8% of the judgments expressed a favourable opinion of the expert reports and urged the parties to follow the recommendations of the expert report.

  16. BRAZILIAN ORTHOPEDISTS' OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS ON FEMOROACETABULAR IMPINGEMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejnisman, Leandro; Khan, Moin; Ayeni, Olufemi Rolland; Bhandari, Mohit; Miyahara, Helder de Souza; Vicente, Jose Ricardo Negreiros

    2016-01-01

    To assess the opinion of Brazilian orthopedists surgeons on the diagnosis and treatment of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). A questionnaire was sent to several orthopedic societies around the world, including the Sociedade Brasileira de Ortopedia e Traumatologia (SBOT). This questionnaire was sent electronically and included questions on many topics related to FAI. 253 Brazilian orthopedists responded the questionnaire. Sixty-eight point nine percent worked in private practice and 23.1% in academic institutions. Pain during hip rotation was the most important finding in the clinical history according to 81.8% of the respondents and the anterior impingement sign was the most important finding in the physical examination according to 88.2%. Initial treatment was physiotherapy according to 86.2%. Surgical treatment was hip arthroscopy according to 38.8%, and via surgical hip dislocation for 14.7%. Brazilian orthopedists' opinions on FAI are similar to their international colleagues. There is considerable discrepancy in the answers provided, demonstrating a need for future investigation on FAI, in order to institute proper treatment and diagnosis protocols. Level of Evidence V. Expert Opinion.

  17. Modelling the public opinion transmission on social networks under opinion leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zuozhi; Li, Meng; Ji, Wanwan

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, based on Social Network Analysis (SNA), the social network model of opinion leaders influencing the public opinion transmission is explored. The hot event, A Female Driver Was Beaten Due To Lane Change, has characteristics of individual short-term and non-government intervention, which is used to data extraction, and formed of the network structure on opinion leaders influencing the public opinion transmission. And the evolution mechanism are analyzed in the three evolutionary situations. Opinion leaders influence micro-blogging public opinion on social network evolution model shows that this type of network public opinion transmission is largely constrained by opinion leaders, so the opinion leaders behavior supervising on the spread of this public opinion is pivotal, and which has a guiding significance.

  18. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  19. Recomendações nacionais baseadas em evidências científicas e opiniões dos especialistas sobre o uso do metotrexato nas doenças reumáticas, especialmente na artrite reumatoide: resultados da iniciativa 3E do Brasil National recommendations based on scientific evidence and opinions of experts on the use of methotrexate in rheumatic disorders, especially in rheumatoid arthritis: results of the 3E Initiative from Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivânio Alves Pereira

    2009-08-01

    antirreumáticas modificadoras da doença (DMARDs, embora haja risco de maior toxicidade. Ácido fólico em dose maior que 5 mg/sem deve ser associado. Devem-se solicitar hemograma, creatinina, AST/ALT, sorologia para vírus B e C da hepatite e raio X de tórax antes de iniciar o MTX, e deve-se inquirir sobre contracepção, comorbidades, uso de drogas ilícitas e álcool, hepatopatias e medicamentos hepatotóxicos. O MTX pode ser mantido durante cirurgias eletivas. Sugere-se a interrupção do MTX por, pelo menos, três meses antes do planejamento de gravidez, tanto em homens quanto em mulheres. Justifica-se a utilização de métodos de contracepção com o uso de MTX em idade reprodutiva. Pode-se usar MTX como poupador de corticoide em pacientes com arterite de células gigantes, polimialgia reumática (PMR, dermatomiosite juvenil e lúpus eritematoso sistêmico (LES com envolvimento cutâneo e/ou articular.OBJECTIVES: The use of methotrexate (MTX has been the basis for rheumatoid arthritis (RA therapy, but there is no uniformity on the guidelines for its clinical use. The objective of this study was to develop recommendations based on scientific evidence and opinions of experts on the use of MTX, which will allow the improvement of our clinical practice. METHODS: 3E (Evidence, Expertise, Exchange Initiative in Rheumatology is a multinational group of rheumatologists from 17 countries, including Brazil. After a selection of 10 questions about the use of MTX, held by the Delphi method, a systematic literature review (SLR was done (Medline, Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane, Abstracts EULAR 2005-2007 and ACR 2006-2007 by six international bibliographic reviewers chosen by the mentors of the 3E study. Two other different national questions from Brazil were also included, and the SLR was done by a national bibliographic reviewer.** The results of SLR were presented by 7 members of our Brazilian 3E scientific committee* at a meeting of 48 rheumatologists, which discussed RSL details

  20. Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

    2017-10-01

    The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

  1. 42 CFR 1008.59 - Range of the advisory opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Range of the advisory opinion. 1008.59 Section 1008... AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Scope and Effect of OIG Advisory Opinions § 1008.59 Range of the advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion will state only the OIG's opinion regarding the subject matter of...

  2. Quantifying catchment water balances and their uncertainties by expert elicitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebok, Eva; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Warmink, Jord J.; Stisen, Simon; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2017-04-01

    The increasing demand on water resources necessitates a more responsible and sustainable water management requiring a thorough understanding of hydrological processes both on small scale and on catchment scale. On catchment scale, the characterization of hydrological processes is often carried out by calculating a water balance based on the principle of mass conservation in hydrological fluxes. Assuming a perfect water balance closure and estimating one of these fluxes as a residual of the water balance is a common practice although this estimate will contain uncertainties related to uncertainties in the other components. Water balance closure on the catchment scale is also an issue in Denmark, thus, it was one of the research objectives of the HOBE hydrological observatory, that has been collecting data in the Skjern river catchment since 2008. Water balance components in the 1050 km2 Ahlergaarde catchment and the nested 120 km2 Holtum catchment, located in the glacial outwash plan of the Skjern catchment, were estimated using a multitude of methods. As the collected data enables the complex assessment of uncertainty of both the individual water balance components and catchment-scale water balances, the expert elicitation approach was chosen to integrate the results of the hydrological observatory. This approach relies on the subjective opinion of experts whose available knowledge and experience about the subject allows to integrate complex information from multiple sources. In this study 35 experts were involved in a multi-step elicitation process with the aim of (1) eliciting average annual values of water balance components for two nested catchments and quantifying the contribution of different sources of uncertainties to the total uncertainty in these average annual estimates; (2) calculating water balances for two catchments by reaching consensus among experts interacting in form of group discussions. To address the complex problem of water balance closure

  3. Opinion dynamics: inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equations modelling opinion leadership and political segregation

    CERN Document Server

    Düring, Bertram

    2015-01-01

    We propose and investigate different kinetic models for opinion formation, when the opinion formation process depends on an additional independent variable, e.g. a leadership or a spatial variable. More specifically, we consider:(i) opinion dynamics under the effect of opinion leadership, where each individual is characterised not only by its opinion, but also by another independent variable which quantifies leadership qualities; (ii) opinion dynamics modelling political segregation in the `The Big Sort', a phenomenon that US citizens increasingly prefer to live in neighbourhoods with politically like-minded individuals. Based on microscopic opinion consensus dynamics such models lead to inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equations for the opinion distribution. We derive macroscopic Fokker-Planck-type equations in a quasi-invariant opinion limit and present results of numerical experiments.

  4. Whose Opinion to Follow in Multihypothesis Social Learning? A Large Deviations Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, Wee Peng

    2015-03-01

    We consider a multihypothesis social learning problem in which an agent has access to a set of private observations and chooses an opinion from a set of experts to incorporate into its final decision. To model individual biases, we allow the agent and experts to have general loss functions and possibly different decision spaces. We characterize the loss exponents of both the agent and experts, and provide an asymptotically optimal method for the agent to choose the best expert to follow. We show that up to asymptotic equivalence, the worst loss exponent for the agent is achieved when it adopts the 0-1 loss function, which assigns a loss of 0 if the true hypothesis is declared and a loss of 1 otherwise. We introduce the concept of hypothesis-loss neutrality, and show that if the agent adopts a particular policy that is hypothesis-loss neutral, then it ignores all experts whose decision spaces are smaller than its own. On the other hand, if experts have the same decision space as the agent, then choosing an expert with the same loss function as itself is not necessarily optimal for the agent, which is somewhat counter-intuitive. We derive sufficient conditions for when it is optimal for the agent with 0-1 loss function to choose an expert with the same loss function.

  5. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  6. Experts views' on Digital Competence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, José; Stoyanov, Slavi

    2013-01-01

    Janssen, J., & Stoyanov, S. (2012, 20 November). Online Consultation for a Digital Competence Framework: Experts' views on Digital Competence. Workshop presentation at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain.

  7. A theory of expert leadership

    OpenAIRE

    Goodall, Amanda H.

    2012-01-01

    How much knowledge should leaders have of their organization's core business? This is an important question but not one that has been addressed in the management literature. In a new 'theory of expert leadership' (TEL), this paper blends conceptual work with recent empirical evidence. It suggests that organizations perform more effectively when led by individuals who have a deep understanding of the core business of their organization. Being a capable general manager is not sufficient. Expert...

  8. Expert Consensus on Cosmetic Outcomes After Treatment of Actinic Keratosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Brian; Ablon, Glynis R; Bhatia, Neal D; Ceilley, Roger I; Goldberg, David J; Nestor, Mark S; Weinkle, Susan H

    2017-03-01

    Dermatologists treat actinic keratosis (AK) primarily because these lesions have the potential to progress to invasive squamous cell carcinoma. Patients, on the other hand, generally seek treatment to remove the lesions and achieve an improved appearance of their skin following treatment. In selecting a treatment option for AK, dermatologists should consider post-treatment cosmesis, because cosmetic outcomes differ across AK treatments. To obtain expert opinion on the cosmetic sequelae related to chronically photodamaged skin and the treatment of AK, an expert panel meeting among dermatologists was conducted in February 2016. These experts reviewed current treatment options for photodamage, including AK, and discussed the relative merits of the various cosmetic assessments commonly used by investigators and patients in both clinical trial and dermatology practice settings. A main goal of the expert panel meeting was to propose assessment tools that could be specifically designed to characterize cosmesis results after treatment of AK. The panel agreed that existing tools for measurement of cosmetic outcomes following treatment of photodamage could also be used to evaluate cosmesis after treatment of AK. Digital photography is probably the best method used for this, with validation by other technologies. Better measurement tools specifically for assessing cosmesis after AK treatment are needed. Once they are developed and validated, regulatory agencies should be educated about the importance of including cosmetic outcomes as a component of product labeling. J Drugs Dermatol. 2017;16(3):260-265..

  9. Expert Recommendations on Treating Psoriasis in Special Circumstances (Part II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrascosa, J M; Galán, M; de Lucas, R; Pérez-Ferriols, A; Ribera, M; Yanguas, I

    2016-11-01

    There is insufficient information on how best to treat moderate to severe psoriasis in difficult clinical circumstances. We considered 5 areas where there is conflicting or insufficient evidence: pediatric psoriasis, risk of infection in patients being treated with biologics, psoriasis in difficult locations, biologic drug survival, and impact of disease on quality of life. Following discussion of the issues by an expert panel of dermatologists specialized in the management of psoriasis, participants answered a questionnaire survey according to the Delphi method. Consensus was reached on 66 (70.9%) of the 93 items analyzed; the experts agreed with 49 statements and disagreed with 17. It was agreed that body mass index, metabolic comorbidities, and quality of life should be monitored in children with psoriasis. The experts also agreed that the most appropriate systemic treatment for this age group was methotrexate, while the most appropriate biologic treatment was etanercept. Although it was recognized that the available evidence was inconsistent and difficult to extrapolate, the panel agreed that biologic drug survival could be increased by flexible, individualized dosing regimens, continuous treatment, and combination therapies. Finally, consensus was reached on using the Dermatology Quality of Life Index to assess treatment effectiveness and aid decision-making in clinical practice. The structured opinion of experts guides decision-making regarding aspects of clinical practice for which there is incomplete or conflicting information. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. [Barriers to treatment-seeking among German veterans: expert interviews].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, Stefan; Rau, Heinrich; Dors, Simone; Brants, Loni; Börner, Michaela; Mahnke, Manuel; Zimmermann, Peter L; Willmund, Gerd; Ströhle, Andreas

    2017-08-01

    The number of service members of the German armed forces suffering from deployment-related mental health problems is increasing. However, less than 50 % seek professional help, and there is little knowledge about the barriers to treatment-seeking. The article presents data gathered by the Delphi technique combined with focus groups from 55 health service experts regarding the evaluated barriers to treatment-seeking among German veterans. According to the interviewed experts, major contextual barriers to treatment-seeking include: 1) intimidating processes and structures, 2) actual stigmatization and discrimination, and 3) health service deficits. Major individual barriers to treatment were: 4) health beliefs, self-perception and fear of stigmatization, and 5) avoidance behavior related to psychopathology. In addition, there is another both contextual and individual barrier, i.e., 6) information deficits. Individual internal factors like the soldiers' self-perception and their fear of being stigmatized were considered important barriers to treatment-seeking. The experts' opinion about avoidance behavior related to psychopathology and deficits in health services and information coincides with international findings. Compared to research in other countries, actual stigmatization and discrimination were regarded to be an important barrier in itself. According to our findings daunting/intimidating processes and structures like time-consuming and complex expert medical reports rather seem to be a German phenomenon. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  11. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  12. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  13. Numerical Algorithms for the Analysis of Expert Opinions Elicited in Text Format

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    processes known as Markov chains, (due to Andrei Andree- vich Markov, see [HS01]) was Markov’s investigation into a two-state chain ( vowels and...conjugation of German verbs and in particular those verbs known as weak verbs. These verbs have an irreducible component called the stem vowel . For example, the...du arbeitest, wir arbeiten. this example the stem vowel is arbeit. A similar example in English might be; computer, computing, computed, computation

  14. Expert Opinions on Postsecondary Outdoor Adventure Risk Management Curriculum Design: A Research Note

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Nevin

    2007-01-01

    A study of outdoor adventure risk management education was conducted in the fall of 2003 following the devastating avalanche season of winter 2002-2003, which took close to 50 lives in North America. The study was guided by the desire to better understand effective risk management training of outdoor adventure leaders in postsecondary…

  15. Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Astiaso Garcia, D.; Barbanera, F.; Cumo, F.; De Matteo, U.; Nastasi, B.

    2016-01-01

    Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical), hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G) from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into

  16. Key considerations for preventing suicide in older adults: consensus opinions of an expert panel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete; Conwell, Yeates

    2011-01-01

    The number of older adults is growing rapidly. This fact, combined with the high rates of suicide in later life, indicates that many more older adults will die by their own hands before rigorous trials can be conducted to fully understand the best approaches to prevent late life suicide....

  17. Iron deficiency across chronic inflammatory conditions: International expert opinion on definition, diagnosis, and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappellini, Maria Domenica; Comin-Colet, Josep; de Francisco, Angel; Dignass, Axel; Doehner, Wolfram; S P Lam, Carolyn; Macdougall, Iain C; Rogler, Gerhard; Camaschella, Clara; Kadir, Rezan; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Spahn, Donat R; Taher, Ali T; Musallam, Khaled M

    2017-10-01

    Iron deficiency, even in the absence of anemia, can be debilitating, and exacerbate any underlying chronic disease, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Iron deficiency is frequently concomitant with chronic inflammatory disease; however, iron deficiency treatment is often overlooked, partially due to the heterogeneity among clinical practice guidelines. In the absence of consistent guidance across chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease and inflammatory bowel disease, we provide practical recommendations for iron deficiency to treating physicians: definition, diagnosis, and disease-specific diagnostic algorithms. These recommendations should facilitate appropriate diagnosis and treatment of iron deficiency to improve quality of life and clinical outcomes. © 2017 The Authors American Journal of Hematology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. [Legal characteristics of expert opinions of anaesthetic cases of the North German Arbitration Board].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffartzik, Walter; Hachenberg, Thomas; Kols, Kerstin; Neu, Johann

    2016-05-01

    The Arbitration Board for Medical Liability Issues of the State Medical Councils of Northern Germany in Hannover (North German Arbitration Board, NGAB) settles about 100 cases in the area of anaesthesiology per year. In these proceedings the patient carries the burden of proof. I. e. the patient has to prove that its health damage was caused by a medical error. Nevertheless, for individual cases the NGAB examines also whether facilitation of the burden of proof can be granted to the patient. This article exemplifies cases, for which the NGAB recognized such facilitation of the burden of proof. In each of these cases, the NGAB asserted the damage claim. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Evidence-Based Treatment for Melasma: Expert Opinion and a Review

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shankar, Krupa; Godse, Kiran; Aurangabadkar, Sanjeev; Lahiri, Koushik; Mysore, Venkat; Ganjoo, Anil; Vedamurty, Maya; Kohli, Malavika; Sharad, Jaishree; Kadhe, Ganesh; Ahirrao, Pashmina; Narayanan, Varsha; Motlekar, Salman Abdulrehman

    2014-01-01

    ... for melasma management. The present article outlines the epidemiology of melasma, reviews the various treatment options along with their mode of action, underscores the diagnostic dilemmas and quantification of illness...

  20. [Sport as a means to prevention, rehabilitation, and health promotion. An expert opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brehm, W; Bös, K; Graf, C H; Hartmann, H; Pahmeier, I; Pfeifer, K; Rütten, A; Sygusch, R; Tiemann, M; Tittlbach, S; Vogt, L; Wagner, P

    2013-10-01

    Physical activities are particularly health effective when they are structured and systematically organized, for example, with respect to a dose-response relationship or to psychosocial aspects. Which insights can be gained from scientific knowledge on the structure of physical activities? Which health-related goals can be sought with different physical activities in the field of sport? Which target groups can be reached with these kinds of sport? These questions are addressed in this article on the basis of current scientific knowledge-to promote the development of health-enhancing physical activities especially in sport federations, but also to create a communication platform between the sport and the health sector. The work of researchers in this field is focused mainly on health-enhancing physical activity, but they are also engaged in health-related scientific organizations and in sport federations.

  1. Materiality in Public Sector Financial Audit: International Practice and the Opinion of Brazilian Experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliane Madeira Leitão

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Materiality in private sector financial audit is a topic that has been relatively well developed in the literature. Specific research in this regard in public sector auditing, on the other hand, is scarce at the international level and absent in Brazil. In view of this, the purpose of this study was to identify the parameters used to determine materiality in public sector financial audit. To this end, we sent questionnaires to the 192 Supreme Audit Institutions that are members of INTOSAI and to 36 Brazilian public auditors, specialists in financial audit, who are staff members of the TCU or the CGU seeking information with respect to the Institutions’ guidelines and the auditors’ perceptions about materiality. Results reveal that expenditures, revenues and total assets are the benchmarks most recommended by respondents for defining materiality in the public sector. In addition, they recommended the adoption of percentages of up to 2% for each of these parameters in defining what is material. It was observed, as well, especially with respect to the effectiveness of internal control and to public expectations or interests, that qualitative aspects should be also taken into account in determining materiality, although a lesser degree of importance is attributed to this than to the quantitative aspects,. The study contributes to the accounting literature on the development of audits, particularly with respect to the use of a concept, materiality, that is always emphasized in professional standards, but about which there are few objective guidelines.

  2. Decision support system for overall welfare assessment in pregnant sows. B. Validation by expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.; Spruijt, B.M.; Metz, J.H.M.; Schouten, W.G.P.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the validity of a model that is embedded in a computer-based decision support system to assess the welfare status of pregnant sows in housing and management systems. The so-called SOWEL (SOw WELfare) model was constructed using a formalized procedure to identify and weight

  3. Correction: Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study

    OpenAIRE

    Vives-Cases, Carmen; Goicolea, Isabel; Hernández, Alison; Sanz, Belén; Gill, Aisha K.; Baldry, Anna Costanza; Schröttle, Monika; Stöckl, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    The eighth author’s name is spelled incorrectly. The correct name is Heidi Stöckl. There is an error in the fourth sentence of the penultimate paragraph in the Discussion section. The correct sentence is: Femicide was, for a long time, only addressed in Europe under the wider umbrella of violence against women. It gained greater research and public attention by European and global projects and institutions only in the last decade, under the COST Action IS1206 on Femicide, the EU Daphne Justic...

  4. Review and expert opinion on prevention and treatment of infliximab-related infusion reactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecluse, L. L. A.; Piskin, G.; Mekkes, J. R.; Bos, J. D.; de Rie, M. A.

    2008-01-01

    Infliximab (Remicade((R)); Schering-Plough, Kenilworth, NJ, U.S.A.) is a chimeric monoclonal antibody that acts as a tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitor. Infliximab is registered for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis, ankylosing

  5. Expert opinion and controversies in musculoskeletal and sports medicine: femoroacetabular impingement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standaert, Christopher J; Manner, Paul A; Herring, Stanley A

    2008-05-01

    Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) has been proposed as a distinct clinical entity that may be a potentially significant cause of hip osteoarthritis (OA). There is a growing body of literature on this condition, including descriptions of biomechanic mechanisms of impingement, anatomic and radiographic findings, and surgical interventions. Although a connection between anatomic abnormalities of the hip and the development of OA has been recognized for some time, there are limited data on the natural history of FAI and no long-term studies on the effect of surgical treatment. Thus, the diagnosis engenders a degree of controversy in multiple regards, including the diagnostic criteria and the role of operative intervention.

  6. Using expert opinion to quantify accuracy and reliability of nondestructive evaluation on bridges : [project brief].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Research is currently being conducted to improve bridge inspection practices. One potential : improvement is the use of nondestructive testing equipment to supplement visual inspection. To : consider the costs and benefits of this equipment, data abo...

  7. Using expert opinion to quantify accuracy and reliability of nondestructive evaluation on bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Bridge inspection is an important phase in bridge management. In 2009, a joint American Society of Civil : Engineers Structural Engineering Institute and AASHTO Ad-Hoc group was created to identify the issues : in bridge safety and to study current b...

  8. Recurrent Issues in Efforts to Prevent Homicidal Youth Violence in Schools: Expert Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Karen E.; Redding, Richard E.; Smith, Peter K.; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G.

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a…

  9. Management of diabetic macular edema in Japan: a review and expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terasaki, Hiroko; Ogura, Yuichiro; Kitano, Shigehiko; Sakamoto, Taiji; Murata, Toshinori; Hirakata, Akito; Ishibashi, Tatsuro

    2018-01-01

    Diabetic retinopathy is a frequent cause of visual impairment in working-age adults (≥ 30 years) and in Japan is most commonly observed in those aged 50-69 years. Diabetic macular edema (DME) is one of the main causes of vision disturbance in diabetic retinopathy, which is a clinically significant microvascular complication of diabetes. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy is becoming the mainstay of treatment for DME. However, to achieve sustained long-term improvement in visual acuity, conventional laser photocoagulation, vitrectomy and steroid therapy are also expected to play a role in the treatment of DME. This review summarizes the epidemiology and pathology of diabetic retinopathy and DME, evaluates the findings regarding the diagnosis and treatment of DME, and underscores the importance of systemic management of the disease in the context of the current health care situation in Japan. Finally, the unmet needs of patients with DME and prospects for research are discussed. The weight of evidence suggests that it is important to establish a multipronged treatment strategy centered on anti-VEGF therapy.

  10. A Pragmatic Approach to Patch Testing Atopic Dermatitis Patients: Clinical Recommendations Based on Expert Consensus Opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jennifer K; Jacob, Sharon E; Nedorost, Susan T; Hanifin, Jon M; Simpson, Eric L; Boguniewicz, Mark; Watsky, Kalman L; Lugo-Somolinos, Aida; Hamann, Carsten R; Eberting, Cheryl Lee; Silverberg, Jonathan I; Thyssen, Jacob P

    2016-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) may complicate the clinical course of atopic dermatitis (AD), and patch testing remains the criterion standard for diagnosing ACD. To date, there have been no guidelines or consensus recommendations on when and how to patch test individuals with AD. Failure to patch test when appropriate may result in overlooking an important and potentially curable complicating comorbidity. In this article, we present consensus recommendations regarding when to perform patch testing in the AD patient, best practices, and common pitfalls. Patch testing should be considered in AD patients with dermatitis that fails to improve with topical therapy; with atypical/changing distribution of dermatitis, or pattern suggestive of ACD; with therapy-resistant hand eczema in the working population; with adult- or adolescent-onset AD; and/or before initiating systemic immunosuppressants for the treatment of dermatitis. A suggested patch testing algorithm for AD patients is provided.

  11. Influence of the Arab Spring Events on International Political Processes: Expert Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliya А. Pipchenko

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the effects of the Arab Spring on international political processes and establishes that the global community is interested in this topic from time to time, when confrontations heat up in the Middle East or in connection with the international political reaction to the events taking place in Syria; the greatest interest in this topic is demonstrated by users from the Middle East and Asia, as well as from the USA and Canada.

  12. An expert opinion on postoperative pain management, with special reference to new developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Jørgen B; Mathiesen, Ole; Kehlet, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Recently, much attention has been directed towards the effect of opioid-sparing strategies on postoperative morbidity and hospitalization, and on different nociceptive mechanisms involved in various postoperative pain states and surgical procedures. This has resulted in an increased interest...

  13. A Comparative Study on Sugeno Integral Approach to Aggregation of Experts' Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Kil Yoo; Kim, Tae Woon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    A multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of preference ranking of various alternatives is common in science and engineering fields. Usually, the MCDM problem is characterized in terms of two factors: relative importance of each evaluation criterion and appropriateness of each alternative. The ranking is determined by a relative degree of appropriateness of decision alternatives. In reality, there are different grades of interaction among decision criteria. One of well-known approaches to aggregation of those two factors is the weighted arithmetic mean (WAM) approach. Here, importance weights for criteria are viewed as probability measures. The weights are linearly aggregated with appropriateness values. In the present work, the main objective is to study an aggregation model with various grades of interactions among the decision elements. The successful applications of fuzzy integral aggregation operators to subjective MCDM problems have been motivating this work. On the basis of {lambda}-fuzzy measures and Sugeno integral (SI), the SI aggregation approach is proposed. Here, interaction among criteria is dealt with {lambda}-fuzzy measures. Aggregation of these measures and appropriateness values is implemented, especially, by the Sugeno integral as one of fuzzy integrals. Aggregated values obtained by the SI approach are viewed as decision maker's pessimistic (or conservative) attitude towards information aggregation, compared to the WAM approach. Firstly, the concepts of the {lambda}-fuzzy measure and the Sugeno fuzzy integral are introduced. Then, as an application of the SI approach, an illustrative example is given.

  14. Expert Opinion on the Management of Lennox–Gastaut Syndrome: Treatment Algorithms and Practical Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Helen Cross

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Lennox–Gastaut syndrome (LGS is a severe epileptic and developmental encephalopathy that is associated with a high rate of morbidity and mortality. It is characterized by multiple seizure types, abnormal electroencephalographic features, and intellectual disability. Although intellectual disability and associated behavioral problems are characteristic of LGS, they are not necessarily present at its outset and are therefore not part of its diagnostic criteria. LGS is typically treated with a variety of pharmacological and non-pharmacological therapies, often in combination. Management and treatment decisions can be challenging, due to the multiple seizure types and comorbidities associated with the condition. A panel of five epileptologists met to discuss consensus recommendations for LGS management, based on the latest available evidence from literature review and clinical experience. Treatment algorithms were formulated. Current evidence favors the continued use of sodium valproate (VPA as the first-line treatment for patients with newly diagnosed de novo LGS. If VPA is ineffective alone, evidence supports lamotrigine, or subsequently rufinamide, as adjunctive therapy. If seizure control remains inadequate, the choice of next adjunctive antiepileptic drug (AED should be discussed with the patient/parent/caregiver/clinical team, as current evidence is limited. Non-pharmacological therapies, including resective surgery, the ketogenic diet, vagus nerve stimulation, and callosotomy, should be considered for use alongside AED therapy from the outset of treatment. For patients with LGS that has evolved from another type of epilepsy who are already being treated with an AED other than VPA, VPA therapy should be considered if not trialed previously. Thereafter, the approach for a de novo patient should be followed. Where possible, no more than two AEDs should be used concomitantly. Patients with established LGS should undergo review by a neurologist specialized in epilepsy on at least an annual basis, including a thorough reassessment of their diagnosis and treatment plan. Clinicians should always be vigilant to the possibility of treatable etiologies and alert to the possibility that a patient’s diagnosis may change, since the seizure types and electroencephalographic features that characterize LGS evolve over time. To date, available treatments are unlikely to lead to seizure remission in the majority of patients and therefore the primary focus of treatment should always be optimization of learning, behavioral management, and overall quality of life.

  15. Influence of the Arab Spring Events on International Political Processes: Expert Opinion

    OpenAIRE

    Nataliya А. Pipchenko

    2014-01-01

    The article analyzes the effects of the Arab Spring on international political processes and establishes that the global community is interested in this topic from time to time, when confrontations heat up in the Middle East or in connection with the international political reaction to the events taking place in Syria; the greatest interest in this topic is demonstrated by users from the Middle East and Asia, as well as from the USA and Canada.

  16. Pooling local expert opinions for estimating mammal densities in tropical rainforests.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoeven, van der C.A.; Boer, de W.F.; Prins, H.H.T.

    2004-01-01

    Methods currently used for assessing wildlife density in rainforests are time and money consuming. The precision of the most commonly used methods is disputed, but accepted because more exact methods are not available. In this study a new method of wildlife density estimation is explained. The new

  17. Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...

  18. Iron deficiency across chronic inflammatory conditions: International expert opinion on definition, diagnosis, and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comin‐Colet, Josep; de Francisco, Angel; Dignass, Axel; Doehner, Wolfram; S. P. Lam, Carolyn; Macdougall, Iain C.; Rogler, Gerhard; Camaschella, Clara; Kadir, Rezan; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Spahn, Donat R.; Taher, Ali T.; Musallam, Khaled M.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Iron deficiency, even in the absence of anemia, can be debilitating, and exacerbate any underlying chronic disease, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Iron deficiency is frequently concomitant with chronic inflammatory disease; however, iron deficiency treatment is often overlooked, partially due to the heterogeneity among clinical practice guidelines. In the absence of consistent guidance across chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease and inflammatory bowel disease, we provide practical recommendations for iron deficiency to treating physicians: definition, diagnosis, and disease‐specific diagnostic algorithms. These recommendations should facilitate appropriate diagnosis and treatment of iron deficiency to improve quality of life and clinical outcomes. PMID:28612425

  19. [Forgetting hormonal contraceptive methods: expert opinion about their daily management in clinical routine practice].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamin, C; André, G; Audebert, A; Christin-Maître, S; Elia, D; Harvey, T; Letombe, B; Lopes, P; Moreau, C; Nisand, I; Pélissier, C

    2011-11-01

    Many guidelines regarding the daily management of regular oral hormonal contraceptive methods have been proposed worldwide. Some of them may even appear to be conflicting. The search for the maximal contraceptive protection leads to a low acceptance of these guidelines, probably because of their complexity and their apparent discrepancy. We are deeply convinced that simplicity and pragmatism of guidelines should pave the way to both their better acceptance and compliance and, consequently, to their improved real-life effectiveness. We have considered physiology and pharmacodynamics before proposing the following rules for an effective management of hormonal contraceptive failures. We conclude that the risk of unwanted pregnancy is higher in case of a unique contraception misuse/a delayed start during the first week of the contraceptive cycle (or in case of multiple days of contraceptive misuses during the following weeks) for a combined contraception or at every cycle day for a non anti-ovulatory progestin only contraception. In such risky situations, we firmly recommend the restart of the regular contraceptive method and the use of condoms for the following 72 hours, provided no sexual intercourse has occurred during the past 5 days before the contraceptive failure. If sexual intercourse has occurred during the past 5 days before the contraceptive failure, we firmly recommend the intake of an emergency contraception, ulipristal acetate, the restart the regular contraceptive method and in this case, the use of condoms for, at least, the following 7 days. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Refinement of the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ: patient and expert stakeholder opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly L

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Laura Kelly,1 Caroline M Potter,1 Cheryl Hunter,2 Elizabeth Gibbons,1 Ray Fitzpatrick,1 Crispin Jenkinson,1 Michele Peters1 1Health Services Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, 2Academic Unit of Primary Care, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Purpose: It is a key UK government priority to assess and improve outcomes in people with long-term conditions (LTCs. We are developing a new patient-reported outcome measure, the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire (LTCQ, for use among people with single or multiple LTCs. This study aimed to refine candidate LTCQ items that had previously been informed through literature reviews, interviews with professional stakeholders, and interviews with people with LTCs. Materials and methods: Cognitive interviews (n=32 with people living with LTCs and consultations with professional stakeholders (n=13 and public representatives (n=5 were conducted to assess the suitability of 23 candidate items. Items were tested for content and comprehensibility and underwent a translatability assessment. Results: Four rounds of revisions took place, due to amendments to item structure, improvements to item clarity, item duplication, and recommendations for future translations. Twenty items were confirmed as relevant to living with LTCs and understandable to patients and professionals. Conclusion: This study supports the content validity of the LTCQ items among people with LTCs and professional stakeholders. The final items are suitable to enter the next stage of psychometric refinement. Keywords: long-term conditions, chronic conditions, cognitive debrief interviews, patient-reported

  1. Limitations of Expert Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serpil Salaçin

    1997-10-01

    Full Text Available Limitations of Expert Evidence Edited by Stephen Leadbeatter MB ChB MCRPath ISBN 1 86016 029 8 Printed in Great Britain by Cathedral Print Services Ltd, Salisbury, 1996 Kitap 25 Ekim 1994 te The Royal College of Physicians ve The Royal College of Pathologists tarafından düzenlenen konferanstan sonra hekimlere ve avukatlara konuyu tartışmaya açmak için basılmış. Bilirkişi görüşünün temel filozofisinin, bu görevi yapanlar ve bu hizmeti alanların yapabileceklerinin sınırlarının tartışılması amaçlanmış.Seksen altı sayfadan oluşan kitabın fiatı on iki İngiliz Sterlini. Kitap üç bölüm ve bunların altında toplanan on ana başlıktan oluşmakta. Elinize aldığınızda küçük boyutu ve anlaşılır dili ile hemen okunup bitirelecek kitaplardan sanılıyor. En azından ben böyle düşünmüştüm. Ancak daha L A Tuınberg ve A J Bellinham’ın ön yazısında ben çarpıldım. Değerli yazarların kaleme aldığı başlıklar ve gündeme getirdiği tartışmaların tüm Adli Bilimlerle uğraşanların dikkatle okuması gereken cinsten olduğu kanısındayım. Birinci bölüm The Legal Perspective iki anabaşlıktan oluşuyor, The Criminal legal perspective Honour Judje Martin Stephens tarafından yazılmış,bilirkişi olarak görev yapabilmek için belgelenmiş bir eğitim olması gerektiği, mahkemelerde ya da yazılı raporlarda verilebilecek görüşlerin incelikleri tartışılmış. Bu bölümün ikinci anabaşlığı The civil legal perspective avukat Jennifer Cummin tarafından yazılmış. Toplum gözünde bilirkişinin anlamı ve mahkemenin bilirkişi görüşünü değişmez bilimsel doğru gibi algılayarak düştüğü bilimsel yanılgı ve raporlardaki kavram farkı dile getirilmiş. İkinci Bölüm The Medical And Scientific Perspective başlığı altında Roger C Evans MD Clinical evidence başlığında toplumun hasta tedavisi ve bilirkişilik hizmetinden beklentilerinin unrealistik olduğu ve

  2. Beyond KOL Marketing: Tapping Digital Opinion Influencers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gregg Fisher; Kevin Michels-Kim

    2017-01-01

    With healthcare professionals and patients now collecting much of their information online, there is new opportunity for "digital opinion influencers" to amplify traditional KOL messaging-or create...

  3. Second-Opinion Interpretations of Gynecologic Oncologic MRI Examinations by Sub-Specialized Radiologists Influence Patient Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakhman, Yulia; D'Anastasi, Melvin; Miccò, Maura; Scelzo, Chiara; Vargas, Hebert Alberto; Nougaret, Stephanie; Sosa, Ramon E; Chi, Dennis S; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R; Hricak, Hedvig; Sala, Evis

    2016-07-01

    To determine if second-opinion review of gynaecologic oncologic (GynOnc) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by sub-specialized radiologists impacts patient care. 469 second-opinion MRI interpretations rendered by GynOnc radiologists were retrospectively compared to the initial outside reports. Two gynaecologic surgeons, blinded to the reports' origins, reviewed all cases with discrepancies between initial and second-opinion MRI reports and recorded whether these discrepancies would have led to a change in patient management defined as a change in treatment approach, counselling, or referral. Histopathology or minimum 6-month imaging follow-up were used to establish the diagnosis. Second-opinion review of GynOnc MRIs would theoretically have affected management in 94/469 (20 %) and 101/469 (21.5 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. Specifically, second-opinion review would have theoretically altered treatment approach in 71/469 (15.1 %) and 60/469 (12.8 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. According to surgeons 1 and 2, these treatment changes would have prevented unnecessary surgery in 35 (7.5 %) and 31 (6.6 %) patients, respectively, and changed surgical procedure type/extent in 19 (4.1 %) and 12 (2.5 %) patients, respectively. Second-opinion interpretations were correct in 103 (83 %) of 124 cases with clinically relevant discrepancies between initial and second-opinion reports. Expert second-opinion review of GynOnc MRI influences patient care. • Outside gynaecologic oncologic MRI examinations are often submitted for a second-opinion review. • One-fifth of MRIs had important discrepancies between initial and second-opinion interpretations. • Second-opinion review of gynaecologic oncologic MRI is a valuable clinical service.

  4. Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

  5. Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This finding

  6. Expert system application education project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  7. Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: guptanidhi12@gmail.com; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); George, Saji, E-mail: saji_george@nyp.gov.sg [Nanyang Polytechnic, Centre for Sustainable Nanotechnology, School of Chemical and Life Sciences (Singapore); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2013-08-15

    The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

  8. Foodborne proportion of gastrointestinal illness: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravel, André; Davidson, Valerie J; Ruzante, Juliana M; Fazil, Aamir

    2010-12-01

    absence of more reliable estimates, the observed discrepancy between experts must be explored and understood before one can judge which opinion is the best.

  9. How meta-analytic evidence impacts clinical decision making in oral implantology: a Delphi opinion poll.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommer, Bernhard; Becker, Kathrin; Arnhart, Christoph; Fabian, Ferenc; Rathe, Florian; Stigler, Robert G

    2016-03-01

    To investigate the impact of meta-analytic evidence in scientific literature on clinical decision making in the field of oral implantology. A Delphi opinion poll was performed at the meeting of the "Next Generation" Committees of the Austrian, German and Swiss Societies for Implantology (ÖGI, DGI and SGI). First, the experts gave their opinion on 20 questions regarding routine implant treatment (uninformed decisions), then they were confronted with up-to-date Level I evidence from scientific literature on these topics and again asked to give their opinion (informed decisions) as well as to rate the available evidence as satisfactory or insufficient. Topics involved surgical issues, such as immediate implant placement, flapless surgery, tilted and short implants and bone substitute materials, as well as opinions on prosthodontic paradigms, such as immediate loading, abutment materials and platform switching. Compared to their uninformed decisions prior to confrontation with recent scientific literature, on average, 37% of experts (range: 15-50%) changed their opinion on the topic. When originally favoring one treatment alternative, less than half were still convinced after review of meta-analytic evidence. Discrepancy between uninformed and informed decisions was significantly associated with insufficient evidence (P = 0.014, 49% change of opinion vs. 26% on topics rated as sufficiently backed with evidence). Agreement regarding strength of evidence could be reached for eight topics (40%), in three issues toward sufficiency and in five issues toward lack of evidence. Confrontation with literature results significantly changes clinical decisions of implantologists, particularly in cases of ambiguous or lacking meta-analytic evidence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

  11. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  12. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390......, reasoning and learning, network management and mobile systems, expert systems and decision support, and information modelling.......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  13. survey of opinions in a paediatric department

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-05-04

    May 4, 1991 ... Questions were posed relating to the need for consent before human ... seldom based on the opinions of dOctors in the 'firing-line'. A survey was undertaken to .... OPINIONS ON WHETHER PRE-TEST INFORMED CONSENT IS NECESSARY IN 3 GROUPS* OF CHILDREN. Group 1. Group 2. Group 3.

  14. Swedish Opinion on Nuclear Power 1986 - 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, Soeren

    2012-11-01

    This report contains the Swedish opinion on Nuclear Power and European Attitudes on Nuclear Power. It also includes European Attitudes Towards the Future of Three Energy Sources; Nuclear Energy, Wind Power and Solar Power - with a focus on the Swedish opinion. Results from measurements done by the SOM Inst. are presented.

  15. Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

  16. Competing opinion diffusion on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Haibo

    2017-11-01

    Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people's opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world.

  17. Opinion competition dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, R.; Kouvaris, N. E.; San Miguel, M.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

    2017-12-01

    Multilayer and multiplex networks represent a good proxy for the description of social phenomena where social structure is important and can have different origins. Here, we propose a model of opinion competition where individuals are organized according to two different structures in two layers. Agents exchange opinions according to the Abrams–Strogatz model in each layer separately and opinions can be copied across layers by the same individual. In each layer a different opinion is dominant, so each layer has a different absorbing state. Consensus in one opinion is not the only possible stable solution because of the interaction between the two layers. A new mean field solution has been found where both opinions coexist. In a finite system there is a long transient time for the dynamical coexistence of both opinions. However, the system ends in a consensus state due to finite size effects. We analyze sparse topologies in the two layers and the existence of positive correlations between them, which enables the coexistence of inter-layer groups of agents sharing the same opinion.

  18. Applied Linguists and Institutions of Opinion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Greg

    2005-01-01

    Public opinion research is not an area that has received much attention from applied linguists. But language lies at the heart of the procedures used to define, elicit, and report opinions, whether through such methods as polling, interviews, and focus groups, or through the less obvious channels of vox pop interviews, letters to the editor, radio…

  19. Model of Opinion Spreading in Social Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kanovsky, Igor

    2011-01-01

    We proposed a new model, which capture the main difference between information and opinion spreading. In information spreading additional exposure to certain information has a small effect. Contrary, when an actor is exposed to 2 opinioned actors the probability to adopt the opinion is significant higher than in the case of contact with one such actor (called by J. Kleinberg "the 0-1-2 effect"). In each time step if an actor does not have an opinion, we randomly choose 2 his network neighbors. If one of them has an opinion, the actor adopts opinion with some low probability, if two - with a higher probability. Opinion spreading was simulated on different real world social networks and similar random scale-free networks. The results show that small world structure has a crucial impact on tipping point time. The "0-1-2" effect causes a significant difference between ability of the actors to start opinion spreading. Actor is an influencer according to his topological position in the network.

  20. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML......, reasoning and learning, network management and mobile systems, expert systems and decision support, and information modelling....

  1. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...

  2. Expert and novice facilitated modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tavella, Elena; Papadopoulos, Thanos

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an empirical study based on action research in which expert and novice facilitators in facilitated modelling workshops are compared. There is limited empirical research analysing the differences between expert and novice facilitators. Aiming to address this gap we study......, and empirically supports the claim that facilitation skills can be taught to participants to enable them to self-facilitate workshops. Differences were also found, which led to the introduction of a new dimension—‘internal versus external’ facilitation. The implications of our findings for effective training...

  3. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  4. Epistemology applied to conclusions of expert reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucena-Molina, Jose-Juan

    2016-07-01

    It is believed that to build a robust reasoning logic to make probabilistic inferences in forensic science from a merely mathematical or logistical viewpoint is not enough. Mathematical logic is the positive science of reasoning and as for that it is only interested in the positive calculus of its validity, regardless any prior ontological assumption. But without a determined ontology and epistemology which imply to define the concepts that they will use, it seems difficult that the proposed scientifically correct mathematical solution be successful as a European standard for making conclusions in forensic reports because it has to be based on judicial language. Forensic experts and Courts are not interested in the development of a positive science but in a practical science: in clarifying whether certain known facts are related to a possible crime. Therefore, not only the coherence of the demonstrative logic reasoning used (logic of propositions) is important, but also the precision of the concepts used by language and consistency among them in reasoning (logic of concepts). There is a linguistic level essential for a successful communication between the forensic practitioner and the Court which is mainly related, in our opinion, to semantics and figures of speech. The first one is involved because words used in forensic conclusions often have different meanings - it is said that they are polysemic - and the second one because there is often metonymy as well. Besides, semantic differences among languages regarding words with the same etymological root add another difficulty for a better mutual understanding. The two main European judicial systems inherit a wide and deep culture related to evidence in criminal proceedings and each of them has coined their own terminology but there are other two more abstract levels such as logical and epistemological, where we can find solid arguments by which terms used at legal level on conclusions of forensic reports could be

  5. Survey Methods, Traditional, Public Opinion Polling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmelund-Præstekær, Christian; Hopmann, David Nicolas; Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2017-01-01

    Traditional public opinion polls are surveys in which a random sample of a given population is asked questions about their attitudes, knowledge, or behavior. If conducted properly, the answers from such surveys are approximately representative of the entire population. Traditional public opinion...... polling is typically based on four different methods of data gathering, or combinations hereof: face-to-face, postal surveys, phone surveys, and web surveys. Given that opinion polls are based on a sample, we cannot be sure that the sample reflects public opinion perfectly, however—even if randomness...... is perfect. Moreover, responses may be highly dependent on the contextual information provided with the question. Also, it may be difficult to capture past or complex causes of attitudes or behavior. In short, surveys are a precise way of measuring public opinion, but they do not come without challenges....

  6. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, M Granger

    2014-05-20

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.

  7. Expert consultation on risk factors for introduction of infectious pathogens into fish farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oidtmann, Birgit C; Peeler, Edmund J; Thrush, Mark A; Cameron, Angus R; Reese, R Allan; Pearce, Fiona M; Dunn, Peter; Lyngstad, Trude M; Tavornpanich, Saraya; Brun, Edgar; Stärk, Katharina D C

    2014-08-01

    An expert consultation was conducted to provide quantitative parameters required to inform risk-based surveillance of aquaculture holdings for selected infectious hazards. The hazards were four fish diseases endemic in some or several European countries: infectious salmon anaemia (ISA), viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN), and koi herpes virus disease (KHD). Experts were asked to provide estimates for the relative importance of 5 risk themes for the hazard to be introduced into and infect susceptible fish at the destination. The 5 risk themes were: (1) live fish and egg movements; (2) exposure via water; (3) on-site processing; (4) short distance mechanical transmission and (5) distance independent mechanical transmission. The experts also provided parameter estimates for hazard transmission pathways within the themes. The expert consultation was undertaken in a 2 step approach: an online survey followed by an expert consultation meeting. The expert opinion indicated that live fish movements and exposure via water were the major relevant risk themes. Experts were recruited from several European countries and thus covered a range of farming systems. Therefore, the outputs from the expert consultation have relevance for the European context. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Studies in Swedish Energy Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, Soeren; Hedberg, Per

    2012-07-01

    -length studies of Swedish mass attitudes toward nuclear power appeared already in the late 1970-ies. Since then all SNES surveys have included measurements of Swedish opinions on various energy issues. A special election study was done in 1980 covering the nuclear power referendum. Beginning in 1986, SNES's election year measurements were supplemented by annual studies done by the newly founded SOM Institute at Univ. of Gothenburg. These annual measurements were from the start designed and coordinated by the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden, originally financially supported by the now non-existent National Board for Spent Fuel, but since 1999 financed by The Swedish Energy Agency. The analyses in the chapters in this English language book compendium have all been done and published under the auspices of the research project Energy Opinion in Sweden. The time span is quite long, over twenty years. The writing in Chapter 1 appeared already in 1991, while the results in Chapters 7 and 8 are from 2011.

  9. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  10. 28 CFR 80.13 - Scope of FCPA Opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Scope of FCPA Opinion. 80.13 Section 80.13 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.13 Scope of FCPA Opinion. An FCPA Opinion will state only the Attorney General's opinion as...

  11. A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

    2018-02-01

    The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

  12. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  13. OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

    2014-12-01

    It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

  14. Opinion Impact Models and Opinion Consensus Methods in Ad Hoc Tactical Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demin Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ad hoc social networks are special social networks, such as ad hoc tactical social networks, ad hoc firefighter social networks, and ad hoc vehicular social networks. The social networks possess both the properties of ad hoc network and social network. One of the challenge problems in ad hoc social networks is opinion impact and consensus, and the opinion impact plays a key role for information fusion and decision support in ad hoc social networks. In this paper, consider the impact of physical and logical distance on the opinions of individuals or nodes in heterogeneous social networks; we present a general opinion impact model, discuss the local and global opinion impact models in detail, and point out the relationship between the local opinion impact model and the global opinion impact model. For understanding the opinion impact models easily, we use the general opinion impact model to ad hoc tactical social networks and discuss the opinion impact and opinion consensus for ad hoc tactical social networks in the end.

  15. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML......, reasoning and learning, network management and mobile systems, expert systems and decision support, and information modelling....

  16. QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perre, M.

    1991-01-01

    TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong

  17. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  18. Laserjet Printer Troubleshooting Expert System

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SOFTLINKS DIGITAL

    This paper model an expert system called LAPTEX for troubleshooting LaserJet printers' faults. Today, with the innumerable advances in information technologies, computerizing printer's fault troubleshooting and identifying faults is far becoming so vital. Also, printers' fault detection is a complicated process that requires a ...

  19. The Naive Expert and the Gifted Child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpson, William M.; Jones, Christine

    1989-01-01

    Mentorship programs are described which involve gifted students and subject experts with no prior knowledge about students' personalities or preconceptions about their abilities, known as "naive experts." The students are challenged by the experts' high expectations and respond to the experts' enthusiasm for sharing their knowledge and…

  20. A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Grigore

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. Methods Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods – the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods – presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert’s opinion were also recorded. Results Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600–£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion

  1. Responding to Expert Arguments. Emerging Lay Topoi in Focus Group Interviews on GM-Crops

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horsbøl, Anders

    2009-01-01

    This paper challenges the view that attitudes towards genetically modified (GM) crops in agriculture are "utterly resistant to persuasion", as Scholderer (2005) humorously suggests in a review of the literature. Methodologically, this is achieved by studying opinions as they emerge in situated...... interaction (Myers 2004), in casu in focus groups interviews with both GM-experts and lay persons without specific knowledge on GM-crops. The paper analyses the lay persons' responses to persuasive expert utterances as inventive contributions to the discussion, not just as reactions showing either support...

  2. Useful Practices in Inclusive Education: A Preliminary View of What Experts in Moderate to Severe Disabilities Are Saying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Lewis; Ryndak, Diane Lea; Billingsley, Felix

    2000-01-01

    Sixty-five experts in the moderate to severe disabilities field were asked their opinions on useful inclusive education practices across nine practice categories. Many of the identified practices require some level of educational service restructuring, including redefining the roles and functions of special and regular education teachers and…

  3. Are forensic experts biased by the side that retained them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrie, Daniel C; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Guarnera, Lucy A; Rufino, Katrina A

    2013-10-01

    How objective are forensic experts when they are retained by one of the opposing sides in an adversarial legal proceeding? Despite long-standing concerns from within the legal system, little is known about whether experts can provide opinions unbiased by the side that retained them. In this experiment, we paid 108 forensic psychologists and psychiatrists to review the same offender case files, but deceived some to believe that they were consulting for the defense and some to believe that they were consulting for the prosecution. Participants scored each offender on two commonly used, well-researched risk-assessment instruments. Those who believed they were working for the prosecution tended to assign higher risk scores to offenders, whereas those who believed they were working for the defense tended to assign lower risk scores to the same offenders; the effect sizes (d) ranged up to 0.85. The results provide strong evidence of an allegiance effect among some forensic experts in adversarial legal proceedings.

  4. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-05-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  5. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  6. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  7. Making a team of experts into an expert team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Carol

    2011-10-01

    Health care has traditionally been delivered primarily by experts working individually in a decentralized system lacking cohesive organization among professional disciplines. Only recently have the advantages of teamwork training been acknowledged in health care. This article explores the history, benefits, and recommendations for team training in neonatal care. TeamSTEPPS (Rockville, MD) and the revised Neonatal Resuscitation Program are cited as promising models for improved neonatal outcomes through professional teamwork.

  8. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Zaleskiewicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians. However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this

  9. [The picture of malingered symptom presentation in public opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlicht, D; Merten, Thomas

    2014-09-01

    The views held by health experts on certain topics may differ drastically from what appears to be obvious from observations in daily living or public opinion. This is true for a number of myths which continue to haunt the literature with respect to feigned health problems. Such myths tend to ignore or to distort the results of modern research. We performed two pilot studies: first a content analysis of 67 German- and English-language articles from newspapers, magazines or internet journals, and second, a survey on the experience of, and beliefs related to, exaggeration and symptom invention in health care and forensic assessment. A non-representative sample of 15 adults from the general population was interviewed. Most of them reported their own experiences or incidents in their social networks involving feigned health problems. Base rate estimates of malingering in five prototypical contexts ranged between 46 and 67 percent of cases. While the participants showed a preference for an adaptational explanatory model of malingering (selected for about 53% of cases of malingering), journalistic sources often employed pejorative language and combat rhetoric, aiming to arouse indignation or outrage in the readership. The majority of articles were classified to adhere to a criminological explanatory model. While the pilot character of the studies limits their generalisability, the results may be suited to question the validity of some long-held expert beliefs.

  10. A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

    OpenAIRE

    David C. Ling

    2005-01-01

    We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of...

  11. Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

  12. The Auditor's Going-Concern Opinion Decision

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tae G Ryu; Chul-Young Roh

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we expand on several previous studies related to the materiality judgments and the auditor's propensity to issue a going-concern opinion to financially troubled but non-bankrupt companies...

  13. A hybrid model for opinion formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borra, Domenica; Lorenzi, Tommaso

    2013-06-01

    This paper presents a hybrid model for opinion formation in a large group of agents exposed to the persuasive action of a small number of strong opinion leaders. The model is defined by coupling a finite difference equation for the dynamics of leaders opinion with a continuous integro-differential equation for the dynamics of the others. Such a definition stems from the idea that the leaders are few and tend to retain original opinions, so that their dynamics occur on a longer time scale with respect to the one of the other agents. A general well-posedness result is established for the initial value problem linked to the model. The asymptotic behavior in time of the related solution is characterized for some general parameter settings, which mimic distinct social scenarios, where different emerging behaviors can be observed. Analytical results are illustrated and extended through numerical simulations.

  14. OGC Precedent Opinion 2-2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — Osborn v. Nicholson 21 Vet. App. 223 (2007) - Effect on Existing General Counsel Opinions, Application to other Benefit Programs, and Applicability to Series HH U.S....

  15. Foreign Policy: Public Opinion and Political Legacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Aaron T.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available To the degree that public opinion, as domestic variable, influences a leaders decision-making in the area of foreign affairs is significant. Political leaders use public opinion polling to support government position or in attempts to mold policy position(s in the affirmative. The following article investigates how public opinion affects U.S. presidential foreign policy decisions and to the degree those decisions are the base for political legacy. The theoretical argument is that domestic variables and leaders decisions often act in mutual support of each others in complementary interests and when not the case, it is the leader whose agenda setting or creating a frame impacts public opinion.

  16. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  18. Determination of student opinions in augmented reality

    OpenAIRE

    Huseyin Bicen; Erkan Bal

    2016-01-01

    The rapid development of the new technology has changed classroom teaching methods and tools in a positive way. This study investigated the classroom learning with augmented reality and the impact of student opinions. 97 volunteer undergraduate students took part in this study. Results included data in the form of frequencies, percentages and descriptive statistics. The results show that, with gamification methods, augmented reality content affected students’ opinions in a positive way. When ...

  19. Discrete Opinion Dynamics on Online Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yan-Li; Bai, Liang; Zhang, Wei-Ming

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamics of binary opinions {+1, -1} on online social networks consisting of heterogeneous actors. In our model, actors update their opinions under the interplay of social influence and self- affirmation, which leads to rich dynamical behaviors on online social networks. We find that the opinion leading to the consensus features an advantage of the initially weighted fraction based on actors' strength over the other, instead of the population. For the role of specific actors, the consensus converges towards the opinion that a small fraction of high-strength actors hold, and individual diversity of self-affirmation slows down the ordering process of consensus. These indicate that high-strength actors play an essential role in opinion formation with strong social influence as well as high persistence. Further investigations show that the initial fraction of high-strength actors to dominate the evolution depends on the heterogeneity of the strength distribution, and less high-strength actors are needed in the case of a smaller exponent of power-law distribution of actors' strength. Our study provides deep insights into the role of social influence and self-affirmation on opinion formation on online social networks.

  20. Topological evolution of the internet public opinion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Ying; Dong, Xuefan; Liu, Yijun

    2017-11-01

    The Internet forms a platform featured with high liquidity, accessibility and concealment for the public to express their respective views on certain events, thus leading to a large network graph. Due to such environmental features, the public opinions formed on the Internet are different from those on traditional media. Studies focusing on the former area are relatively fewer. In addition, the majority of existing methods proposed for constructing the Internet public opinion topological structure are based on the classic BA model, thus resulting in drawbacks in the range of simplicity and a lack of strict deduction. Therefore, based on the complex networks theory, a model applied to describe the topology of the Internet public opinion is deduced with rigorous derivation in the present paper. Results show that the proposed expression could well reflect the degree distribution of Internet public opinion which follows an analogous power law distribution, and that the peak value and the degree distribution are not correlative to each other. Moreover, it has been also proved that compared to the classic BA model, the proposed model has better accuracy performance in the description of the degree distribution of the Internet public opinion, which contributes to future studies focusing on this area. Thus, an attempt has been made to give the first theoretical description of the Internet public opinion topology in the present paper. In addition, it is also the first paper focusing on the solution of networks degree distribution with an exponential growth form.

  1. Understanding misunderstandings in invasion science: why experts don’t agree on common concepts and risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Humair

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the diverging opinions of academic experts, stakeholders and the public is important for effective conservation management. This is especially so when a consensus is needed for action to minimize future risks but the knowledge upon which to base this action is uncertain or missing. How to manage non-native, invasive species (NIS is an interesting case in point: the issue has long been controversial among stakeholders, but publicly visible, major disagreement among experts is recent.To characterize the multitude of experts’ understanding and valuation of non-native, NIS we performed structured qualitative interviews with 26 academic experts, 13 of whom were invasion biologists and 13 landscape experts. Within both groups, thinking varied widely, not only about basic concepts (e.g., non-native, invasive but also about their valuation of effects of NIS. The divergent opinions among experts, regarding both the overall severity of the problem in Europe and its importance for ecosystem services, contrasted strongly with the apparent consensus that emerges from scientific synthesis articles and policy documents. We postulate that the observed heterogeneity of expert judgments is related to three major factors: (1 diverging conceptual understandings, (2 lack of empirical information and high scientific uncertainties due to complexities and contingencies of invasion processes, and (3 missing deliberation of values. Based on theory from science studies, we interpret the notion of an NIS as a boundary object, i.e., concepts that have a similar but not identical meaning to different groups of experts and stakeholders. This interpretative flexibility of a concept can facilitate interaction across diverse groups but bears the risk of introducing misunderstandings. An alternative to seeking consensus on exact definitions and risk assessments would be for invasive species experts to acknowledge uncertainties and engage transparently with

  2. Acquisition of Expert/Non-Expert Vocabulary from Reformulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.

  3. Expert – Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing

    OpenAIRE

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately...

  4. Islamic founding principles on organ transplantation and the evolution of Islamic scholarly opinions on the subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuddus, R H

    2014-01-01

    Muslims constitute about one-fourth of the human population, and a significant fraction of the organ recipients identify themselves as Muslims. A large fraction of the Muslim population is devout but unclear regarding the religious principles on organ donation and transplantation and is dependent on scholars' and imams' opinions. The Qur'an, the authentic Prophetic Traditions, and expert opinions on the subject were investigated. The sources of the Islamic founding principles on organ donation and transplantation are the Qur'an, the Prophetic Traditions, Usulul Fiqh or expert opinions based on the Qur'an and Traditions, and Maslaha or the principles of public interest deduced by the scholars. Some Muslim scholars, mostly from the Indian subcontinent, opine that live organ donation, extraction of organs from dead persons, and transplantation are prohibited. Many Arab scholars and Muslim scholars settled in the western hemisphere opine that live organ donation, organ extraction from dead persons, and transplantation are permitted, but organ donation must be a voluntary act of charity. Of late, the Iranian imams/scholars have recognized that the national government may acquire live donor organs for a uniform compensation and equitably distribute the acquired organs to patients with failing organs. The current Islamic working principles on transplantation medicine are nonuniform, transitory, and somewhat detached from the bulk of the population. How such heterogeneity is affecting transplantation medicine, and organ donation in particular, among Muslim populations warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Expert SQL Server 2008 Development

    CERN Document Server

    Machanic, Adam

    2009-01-01

    Expert SQL Server 2008 Development is aimed at SQL Server developers ready to move beyond Books Online. Author and experienced developer Alastair Aitchison shows you how to think about SQL Server development as if it were any other type of development. You'll learn to manage testing in SQL Server and to properly deal with errors and exceptions. The book also covers critical, database-centric topics such as managing concurrency and securing your data and code through proper privileges and authorization. Alastair places focus on sound development and architectural practices that will help you be

  6. Expert Oracle RAC 12c

    CERN Document Server

    Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo

  7. 31 CFR 10.35 - Requirements for covered opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... the opinion; and (ii) The taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer's particular circumstances... opinion with regard to the tax issues in question and the taxpayer's good faith reliance on the opinion... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Requirements for covered opinions. 10...

  8. 32 CFR 1698.8 - Effect of advisory opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Effect of advisory opinion. 1698.8 Section 1698... OPINIONS § 1698.8 Effect of advisory opinion. The Selective Service System will not take action with respect to any person concerning whom the Director has issued an advisory opinion insonsistent with that...

  9. 49 CFR 604.20 - Effect of an advisory opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Effect of an advisory opinion. 604.20 Section 604... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CHARTER SERVICE Advisory Opinions and Cease and Desist Orders § 604.20 Effect of an advisory opinion. (a) An advisory opinion represents the formal position of FTA on a...

  10. 49 CFR 604.18 - Request for an advisory opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Request for an advisory opinion. 604.18 Section... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CHARTER SERVICE Advisory Opinions and Cease and Desist Orders § 604.18 Request for an advisory opinion. (a) An interested party may request an advisory opinion from the...

  11. 28 CFR 80.11 - Effect of FCPA Opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Effect of FCPA Opinion. 80.11 Section 80.11 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.11 Effect of FCPA Opinion. Except as specified in § 80.10, an FCPA Opinion will not bind or...

  12. Effects of Groups’ Spatial Segregation on Processes of Opinion Polarization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feliciani, Thomas; Flache, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    We contribute to the literature about processes of opinion formation, investigating theoretically how the spatial segregation of two groups affects opinion polarization as a possible outcome of opinion formation. We focus on two processes of opinion polarization (negative influence and persuasive

  13. 29 CFR 101.39 - Initiation of advisory opinion case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Initiation of advisory opinion case. 101.39 Section 101.39... Opinions and Declaratory Orders Regarding Board Jurisdiction § 101.39 Initiation of advisory opinion case... advisory opinion determining whether it would or would not assert jurisdiction on the basis of the facts...

  14. A Self-Categorization Explanation for Opinion Consensus Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    The public expression of opinions (and related communicative activities) hinges upon the perception of opinion consensus. Current explanations for opinion consensus perceptions typically focus on egocentric and other biases, rather than functional cognitions. Using self-categorization theory we showed that opinion consensus perceptions flow from…

  15. Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheroghe Popescu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

  16. Enhancing the Learning Process with Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karake, Zeinab A.

    1990-01-01

    Discusses the use of artificial intelligence and expert system shells to enhance the learning process of graduate or undergraduate statistics students. A student exercise is described using STAT-EXPERT, an expert system designed to help students select the appropriate statistical analysis technique. (25 references) (LRW)

  17. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  18. Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

  19. Evaluating Econometric Models and Expert Intuition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Legerstee (Rianne)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis is about forecasting situations which involve econometric models and expert intuition. The first three chapters are about what it is that experts do when they adjust statistical model forecasts and what might improve that adjustment behavior. It is investigated how expert

  20. Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

    2010-01-01

    -seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts...

  1. Information Filtering Based on Users' Negative Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiang; Li, Yang; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2013-05-01

    The process of heat conduction (HC) has recently found application in the information filtering [Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.99, 154301 (2007)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. The classical HC model predicts users' potential interested objects based on their interesting objects regardless to the negative opinions. In terms of the users' rating scores, we present an improved user-based HC (UHC) information model by taking into account users' positive and negative opinions. Firstly, the objects rated by users are divided into positive and negative categories, then the predicted interesting and dislike object lists are generated by the UHC model. Finally, the recommendation lists are constructed by filtering out the dislike objects from the interesting lists. By implementing the new model based on nine similarity measures, the experimental results for MovieLens and Netflix datasets show that the new model considering negative opinions could greatly enhance the accuracy, measured by the average ranking score, from 0.049 to 0.036 for Netflix and from 0.1025 to 0.0570 for Movielens dataset, reduced by 26.53% and 44.39%, respectively. Since users prefer to give positive ratings rather than negative ones, the negative opinions contain much more information than the positive ones, the negative opinions, therefore, are very important for understanding users' online collective behaviors and improving the performance of HC model.

  2. Expert system validation in prolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  3. [The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojer, Joanna

    2011-01-01

    The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

  4. A Web-Based Rice Plant Expert System Using Rule-Based Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Rice plants can be attacked by various kinds of diseases which are possible to be determined from their symptoms. However, it is to recognize that to find out the exact type of disease, an agricultural expert’s opinion is needed, meanwhile the numbers of agricultural experts are limited and there are too many problems to be solved at the same time. This makes a system with a capability as an expert is required. This system must contain the knowledge of the diseases and symptom of rice plants as an agricultural expert has to have. This research designs a web-based expert system using rule-based reasoning. The rule are modified from the method of forward chaining inference and backward chaining in order to to help farmers in the rice plant disease diagnosis. The web-based rice plants disease diagnosis expert system has the advantages to access and use easily. With web-based features inside, it is expected that the farmer can accesse the expert system everywhere to overcome the problem to diagnose rice diseases.

  5. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  6. Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects

    CERN Document Server

    Sîrbu, Alina; Servedio, Vito D P; Tria, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science. Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises, global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to, and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been developed to encompass many of t...

  7. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  8. Determination of student opinions in augmented reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huseyin Bicen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The rapid development of the new technology has changed classroom teaching methods and tools in a positive way. This study investigated the classroom learning with augmented reality and the impact of student opinions. 97 volunteer undergraduate students took part in this study. Results included data in the form of frequencies, percentages and descriptive statistics. The results show that, with gamification methods, augmented reality content affected students’ opinions in a positive way. When QR codes are used in the classroom, students feel independent from classroom materials and can access various resources. Moreover, students think that, when augmented reality in the classroom is used, education is more enjoyable.

  9. Analysing Customer Opinions with Text Mining Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consoli, Domenico

    2009-08-01

    Knowing what the customer thinks of a particular product/service helps top management to introduce improvements in processes and products, thus differentiating the company from their competitors and gain competitive advantages. The customers, with their preferences, determine the success or failure of a company. In order to know opinions of the customers we can use technologies available from the web 2.0 (blog, wiki, forums, chat, social networking, social commerce). From these web sites, useful information must be extracted, for strategic purposes, using techniques of sentiment analysis or opinion mining.

  10. The making of expert witness: the valuers' perspective | Babawale ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the role of the expert witness in the process of justice administration. As the saying goes, not all 'experts' make good 'expert witness' as there is more to being an 'expert witness' than there is to being an 'expert'. That is, being an 'expert witness' does not necessarily connote that the witness is an expert ...

  11. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  12. Consumer versus expert hazard identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...... of uncertainty. Furthermore, a number of misconceptions became apparent in the study of laypeople's mental models, often related to the regulatory system governing risk assessments of novel foods. Critical issue are outlined and communication needs are discussed....

  13. Language theory and expert systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attilio Agodi

    1988-11-01

    Full Text Available Some remarks on the problem of knowledge representation and processing, as recognized in connection with the use of computers in the scientific research work, emphasizes the relevance of these problems for the studies on both the theory of languages and the expert system. A consideration of the common traits in the recent history of these studies, with reference to the use of computers on texts in natural language motivates the introduction of set theoretic and algebraic methods, suitable for applications in the analysis and in the automatic treatment of languages, based on the concept of model sets and on relational structures suggested from the connections between syntax and semantics evidenced in some example of sub-languages corresponding to theories of different classes of physical phenomena. Some details of these methods are evidenced, which have already successfully used or whose applications appears suggestive of interesting development.

  14. Political opinion formation: Initial opinion distribution and individual heterogeneity of tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Cheng; Li, Yifu; Jin, Xiaogang

    2017-02-01

    Opinion dynamics on networks have received serious attention for its profound prospects in social behaviours and self-organized systems. However, political opinion formation, as one typical and significant case, remains lacking in discussion. Previous agent-based simulations propose various models that are based on different mechanisms like the coevolution between network topology and status transition. Nonetheless, even under the same network topology and with the same simple mechanism, forming opinions can still be uncertain. In this work, we propose two features, the initial distribution of opinions and the individual heterogeneity of tolerances on opinion changing, in political opinion formation. These two features are imbedded in the network construction phase of a classical model. By comparing multi simple-party systems, along with a detailed analysis on the two-party system, we capture the critical phenomenon of fragmentation, polarization and consensus both in the persistent stable stage and in-process. We further introduce the average ratio of nearest neighbours to characterize the stage of opinion formation. The results show that the initial distribution of opinions leads to different evolution results on similar random networks. In addition, the existence of stubborn nodes plays a special role: only nodes that are extremely stubborn can cause the change of final opinion distribution while in other cases they only delay the time to reach stability. If stubborn nodes are small in number, their effects are confined within a small range. This theoretical work goes deeper on an existing model, it is an early exploration on qualitative and quantitative simulation of party competition.

  15. Opinion formation on social media: an empirical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

  16. Opinion formation on social media: An empirical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2014-03-01

    Opinion exchange models aim to describe the process of public opinion formation, seeking to uncover the intrinsic mechanism in social systems; however, the model results are seldom empirically justified using large-scale actual data. Online social media provide an abundance of data on opinion interaction, but the question of whether opinion models are suitable for characterizing opinion formation on social media still requires exploration. We collect a large amount of user interaction information from an actual social network, i.e., Twitter, and analyze the dynamic sentiments of users about different topics to investigate realistic opinion evolution. We find two nontrivial results from these data. First, public opinion often evolves to an ordered state in which one opinion predominates, but not to complete consensus. Second, agents are reluctant to change their opinions, and the distribution of the number of individual opinion changes follows a power law. Then, we suggest a model in which agents take external actions to express their internal opinions according to their activity. Conversely, individual actions can influence the activity and opinions of neighbors. The probability that an agent changes its opinion depends nonlinearly on the fraction of opponents who have taken an action. Simulation results show user action patterns and the evolution of public opinion in the model coincide with the empirical data. For different nonlinear parameters, the system may approach different regimes. A large decay in individual activity slows down the dynamics, but causes more ordering in the system.

  17. A comparative study of open domain and opinion question answering systems for factual and opinionated queries

    OpenAIRE

    Balahur Dobrescu, Alexandra; Boldrini, Ester; Montoyo Guijarro, Andrés; Martínez Barco, Patricio

    2009-01-01

    The development of the Web 2.0 led to the birth of new textual genres such as blogs, reviews or forum entries. The increasing number of such texts and the highly diverse topics they discuss make blogs a rich source for analysis. This paper presents a comparative study on open domain and opinion QA systems. A collection of opinion and mixed fact-opinion questions in English is defined and two Question Answering systems are employed to retrieve the answers to these queries. The first one is gen...

  18. 5 CFR 2636.103 - Advisory opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... he determines that the ethics opinion previously issued is incorrect, either as a matter of law or....103 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS GOVERNMENT ETHICS LIMITATIONS ON OUTSIDE... from an agency ethics official as to whether specific conduct which has not yet occurred would violate...

  19. FY 2017 Kazakhstan Country Opinion Survey

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2017-01-01

    The Country opinion survey for 2017 in Kazakhstan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Kazakhstan perceive the WBG. The survey explored:(i) general issues facing Kazakhstan; (ii) overall attitudes toward the World Bank Group; (iii) World Bank Group’s effectiveness and results; (iv) The World Bank Group’s knowledge work and activities; ...

  20. Secondary School Students' Opinions about Readers' Theatre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabag, S. Gulin

    2015-01-01

    In this article, a teaching strategy which not only blends yesterday and today in a meaningful way but also powerfully integrates literacy and history will be examined. Firstly Readers' Theatre as a technique will be introduced. Secondly, the usage guidelines of Readers' Theatre will be presented. Finally the opinions of secondary school students…

  1. FACTORS INFLUENCING AUDITORS' GOING CONCERN OPINION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasnah Haron

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of our study is to provide evidence the practically consideration of auditor judgement on going concern opinion. By using quasi experimental, we found strong evidence that auditors' judgement is affected by financial indicators, evidence, and disclosure. We have another finding that consensus among auditors' judgement and the interaction effects between the three independent variables is significant.

  2. OPINION PIECE Rethinking responsibility in radiography: Some ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    OPINION PIECE. Introduction. The field of radiography in South Africa is complex and presents a multitude of ethical issues. The discipline is often regarded as a supporting function in the healthcare chain, and a stepping-stone in the diagnostic process. This status of the discipline seems to have left many radiographers in ...

  3. A model of public opinion management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patacconi, Andrea; Vikander, Nicholas Edward

    2015-01-01

    information is always unbiased, may also not be socially optimal. A biased information-gathering process can benefit the government by helping it to shape public opinion. But it can also benefit the public, by curbing the government's tendency to implement its ex ante favored policy, thus mitigating...

  4. Determination of Student Opinions in Augmented Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bicen, Huseyin; Bal, Erkan

    2016-01-01

    The rapid development of the new technology has changed classroom teaching methods and tools in a positive way. This study investigated the classroom learning with augmented reality and the impact of student opinions. 97 volunteer undergraduate students took part in this study. Results included data in the form of frequencies, percentages and…

  5. FY16 Uzbekistan Country Opinion Survey Report

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2016-01-01

    The Country Opinion Survey in Uzbekistan assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Uzbekistan perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Uzbekistan on 1) their views regarding the general enviro...

  6. FY15 Ethiopia Country Opinion Survey Report

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2015-01-01

    The Country Opinion Survey in Ethiopia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Ethiopia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector, and civil society in Ethiopia on 1) their views regarding the general environment ...

  7. Farmers' Opinions about Third-Wave Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasley, Paul; Bultena, Gordon

    The opinions of 1,585 Iowa farmers about 8 emergent agricultural technologies (energy production from feed grains and oils; energy production from livestock waste; genetic engineering research on plants, livestock, and humans; robotics for on-farm use; confinement livestock facilities; and personal computers for farm families) were found to be…

  8. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry's practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  9. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, B.

    1991-12-31

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry`s practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  10. Polling and public opinion: a Canadian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Butler, Peter Marshall

    2007-01-01

    ..., advertising, and government policy. Using such controversial issues such as free trade, health care, same-sex marriage, and national security, Butler argues that popular opinion on such hot-button topics as these can be guided and changed according to how polls are interpreted for and presented to the public. As well as analysing the impact of po...

  11. Expert judgment-based risk assessment using statistical scenario analysis: a case study-running the bulls in Pamplona (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallor, Fermín; García-Olaverri, Carmen; Gómez-Elvira, Sagrario; Mateo-Collazas, Pedro

    2008-08-01

    In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.

  12. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  13. Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Tara G; Burgman, Mark A; Fidler, Fiona; Kuhnert, Petra M; Low-Choy, Samantha; McBride, Marissa; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-02-01

    Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge. ©2011 Australian Governmemt Conservation Biology©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Iraqi public opinion on the Web: An exploratory study of opinions on invasion and election

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haidar Moukdad

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an exploratory study of a selection of user contributions to a news feedback forum on the Web provided by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC World Service to its Arab listeners. Contributions representing Iraqi public opinion on a variety of topics covering Iraq under occupation were categorized and analyzed to provide a glimpse of how access to the Web has allowed Iraqis to freely express their opinions, and of how Iraqi public opinion manifests itself throughout these contributions. The results provided insights into the feelings of Iraqis towards the invasion and occupation of their country, and they highlighted the role played by the Web as a vital communication vehicle for public opinion and political debates.

  15. Perceptions of opinion leaders towards CCS demonstration projects in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, X.; Reiner, D.; Li, J. [University of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2011-05-15

    We present results of a major survey of Chinese opinion leaders conducted from March to April 2009, supported by EU-UK-China near zero emissions coal (NZEC) initiative. Respondents were drawn from 27 provinces and regions using an online survey with follow-up face-to-face interviews. A total of 131 experts and decision-makers from 68 key institutions were consulted through online survey. This survey is the first to focus on demonstration projects in particular and is the most geographically diverse. We aim to understand perceptions of applying CCS technologies in the first large-scale CCS demonstration project in China. Though enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and enhanced coal bed methane recovery (ECBM) may not be long-term solutions for CO{sub 2} storage, they were viewed as the most attractive storage technologies for the first CCS demonstration project. With regard to CO{sub 2} capture technology, on the whole, post-combustion (which would be most applicable to the vast majority of existing power plants which are pulverised-coal) received slightly higher support than pre-combustion. More surprising, respondents from both the power and oil industries favoured pre-combustion. There was no consensus regarding the appropriate scale for the first demonstration. A large number of respondents were concerned about the energy penalty associated with CCS and its impact on the long-term sustainability of coal supply in China, although such concerns were much reduced compared with surveys in 2006 and 2008.

  16. Content validation of the 'Mosaic of Opinions About Abortion' (Mosai).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacique, Denis Barbosa; Passini Junior, Renato; Osis, Maria José Martins Duarte

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to develop and validate the contents of the Mosaico de Opiniões Sobre o Aborto Induzido (Mosai), a structured questionnaire intended to be used as a tool to collect information about the views of health professionals about the morality of abortion. The contents of the first version of the questionnaire was developed based on the technique of thematic content analysis of books, articles, films, websites and newspapers reporting cases of abortion and arguing about their practice. The Mosai was composed of 6 moral dilemmas (vignettes) related to induced abortion, whose outcomes should be chosen by the respondents and could be justified by the classification of 15 patterns of arguments about the morality of abortion. In order to validate its contents, the questionnaire was submitted to the scrutiny of a panel of 12 experts, an intentional sample consisted of doctors, lawyers, ethicists, sociologists, nurses and statisticians, who evaluated the criteria of clarity of writing, relevance, appropriateness to sample and suitability to the fields. These scores were analyzed by the method of concordance rate, while the free comments were analyzed using the analysis technique content. All the moral dilemmas and arguments were considered valid according to the rate of agreement, however, some comments led to the exclusion of a dilemma about emergency contraception, among other changes. The content of Mosai was considered valid to serve as a tool to collect the opinions of healthcare professionals regarding the morality of abortion. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  17. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: An opinion on its future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens Rassweiler

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of miniaturized nephroscopes which allow one-stage stone clearance with minimal morbidity has brought the role of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL in stone management into question. Design innovations in SWL machines over the last decade have attempted to address this problem. We reviewed the recent literature on SWL using a MEDLINE/PUBMED research. For commenting on the future of SWL, we took the subjective opinion of two senior urologists, one mid-level expert, and an upcoming junior fellow. There have been a number of recent changes in lithotripter design and techniques. This includes the use of multiple focus machines and improved coupling designs. Additional changes involve better localization real-time monitoring. The main goal of stone treatment today seems to be to get rid of the stone in one session rather than being treated multiple times non-invasively. Stone treatment in the future will be individualized by genetic screening of stone formers, using improved SWL devices for small stones only. However, there is still no consensus about the design of the ideal lithotripter. Innovative concepts such as emergency SWL for ureteric stones may be implemented in clinical routine.

  18. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: An opinion on its future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rassweiler, Jens; Rassweiler, Marie-Claire; Frede, Thomas; Alken, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The development of miniaturized nephroscopes which allow one-stage stone clearance with minimal morbidity has brought the role of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) in stone management into question. Design innovations in SWL machines over the last decade have attempted to address this problem. We reviewed the recent literature on SWL using a MEDLINE/PUBMED research. For commenting on the future of SWL, we took the subjective opinion of two senior urologists, one mid-level expert, and an upcoming junior fellow. There have been a number of recent changes in lithotripter design and techniques. This includes the use of multiple focus machines and improved coupling designs. Additional changes involve better localization real-time monitoring. The main goal of stone treatment today seems to be to get rid of the stone in one session rather than being treated multiple times non-invasively. Stone treatment in the future will be individualized by genetic screening of stone formers, using improved SWL devices for small stones only. However, there is still no consensus about the design of the ideal lithotripter. Innovative concepts such as emergency SWL for ureteric stones may be implemented in clinical routine.

  19. Succession planning for technical experts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dewji, Shaheen A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-07-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  20. Opinion leaders and changes over time: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doumit, Gaby; Wright, Frances C; Graham, Ian D; Smith, Andrew; Grimshaw, Jeremy

    2011-10-11

    Opinion leaders represent one way to disseminate new knowledge and influence the practice behaviors of physicians. This study explored the stability of opinion leaders over time, whether opinion leaders were polymorphic (i.e., influencing multiple practice areas) or monomorphic (i.e., influencing one practice area), and reach of opinion leaders in their local network. We surveyed surgeons and pathologists in Ontario to identify opinion leaders for colorectal cancer in 2003 and 2005 and to identify opinion leaders for breast cancer in 2005. We explored whether opinion leaders for colorectal cancer identified in 2003 were re-identified in 2005. We examined whether opinion leaders were considered polymorphic (nominated in 2005 as opinion leaders for both colorectal and breast cancer) or monomorphic (nominated in 2005 for only one condition). Social-network mapping was used to identify the number of local colleagues identifying opinion leaders. Response rates for surgeons were 41% (2003) and 40% (2005); response rates for pathologists were 42% (2003) and 37% (2005). Four (25%) of the surgical opinion leaders identified in 2003 for colorectal cancer were re-identified in 2005. No pathology opinion leaders for colorectal cancer were identified in both 2003 and 2005. Only 29% of surgical opinion leaders and 17% of pathology opinion leaders identified in the 2005 survey were considered influential for both colorectal cancer and breast cancer. Social-network mapping revealed that only a limited number of general surgeons (12%) or pathologists (7%) were connected to the social networks of identified opinion leaders. Opinion leaders identified in this study were not stable over a two-year time period and generally appear to be monomorphic, with clearly demarcated areas of expertise and limited spheres of influence. These findings may limit the practicability of routinely using opinion leaders to influence practice.

  1. Operational expert system applications in Europe

    CERN Document Server

    Zarri, Gian Piero

    1992-01-01

    Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

  2. Expert systems to improve plant operability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopocy, D.M.; Glazer, A.R. (Sargent and Lundy, Chicago, IL (USA)); Jonas, O. (Jonas, Inc., Wilmington, DE (US)); Rice, J.K. (James K. Rice, Chartered, Olney, MD (US))

    1988-01-01

    Prospective expert system applications in the power industry generally are in one of the following categories:esign, information management, plant operations, and equipment diagnostics. Many power facility expert system efforts are four plant operations. Several of these applications help optimize plant operation and also detect developing problems and suggest remedial action before the occurrence of any serious consequences. Many types of plant processes and equipment can benefit from routine trending and evaluation of operating data by this type of expert system. This paper discusses a variety of special considerations for the development and implementation of expert systems for plant operations, both in general and as exemplified by CYCLEXPRT.

  3. Opinion Impact Models and Opinion Consensus Methods in Ad Hoc Tactical Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Demin Li; Jie Zhou; Jingjuan Zhu; Jiacun Wang

    2013-01-01

    Ad hoc social networks are special social networks, such as ad hoc tactical social networks, ad hoc firefighter social networks, and ad hoc vehicular social networks. The social networks possess both the properties of ad hoc network and social network. One of the challenge problems in ad hoc social networks is opinion impact and consensus, and the opinion impact plays a key role for information fusion and decision support in ad hoc social networks. In this paper, consider the impact of physic...

  4. THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

  5. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

  6. Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

    2017-06-01

    There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. The Complex Neutrosophic Soft Expert Relation and Its Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Al-Quran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel soft computing technique, called the complex neutrosophic soft expert relation (CNSER, to evaluate the degree of interaction between two hybrid models called complex neutrosophic soft expert sets (CNSESs. CNSESs are used to represent two-dimensional data that are imprecise, uncertain, incomplete and indeterminate. Moreover, it has a mechanism to incorporate the parameter set and the opinions of all experts in one model, thus making it highly suitable for use in decision-making problems where the time factor plays a key role in determining the final decision. The complex neutrosophic soft expert set and complex neutrosophic soft expert relation are both defined. Utilizing the properties of CNSER introduced, an empirical study is conducted on the relationship between the variability of the currency exchange rate and Malaysian exports and the time frame (phase of the interaction between these two variables. This study is supported further by an algorithm to determine the type and the degree of this relationship. A comparison between different existing relations and CNSER to show the ascendancy of our proposed CNSER is provided. Then, the notion of the inverse, complement and composition of CNSERs along with some related theorems and properties are introduced. Finally, we define the symmetry, transitivity and reflexivity of CNSERs, as well as the equivalence relation and equivalence classes on CNSESs. Some interesting properties are also obtained.

  8. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  9. Elementaire leerdoelen voor verkeerseducatie : meningen van experts over verkeerseducatie in het voorgezet onderwijs. In opdracht van het Directoraat-Generaal Rijkswaterstaat, Adviesdienst Verkeer en Vervoer AVV.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Twisk, D.A.M.

    1999-01-01

    This report contains the results of a Dutch study for the benefit of answering the policy question concerning elementary conditions (knowledge and skills) for safe traffic participation by young people. Experts' opinions about traffic education in secondary education were gathered by using

  10. The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

  11. Discrepancy and Disliking Do Not Induce Negative Opinion Shifts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Takács, Károly; Flache, Aneas; Maes, Michael

    2016-01-01

    .... Results confirm that similarities induce attraction, but results do not support that discrepancy or disliking entails negative influence. Instead, our findings suggest a robust positive linear relationship between opinion distance and opinion shifts.

  12. Your cancer diagnosis: Do you need a second opinion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Your cancer diagnosis: Do you need a second opinion? To use the sharing features on this page, ... treat your cancer. Should You Get a Second Opinion? You should not worry about asking your doctor ...

  13. AIDS education in schools - awareness, attitudes and opinions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , attitudes towards AIDS and opinions as to how and whether education programmes for schoolchildren should be planned. Opinions were canvassed initially by means of a questionnaire to three groups of professionals who could become ...

  14. Discrepancy and Disliking Do Not Induce Negative Opinion Shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takács, Károly; Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Both classical social psychological theories and recent formal models of opinion differentiation and bi-polarization assign a prominent role to negative social influence. Negative influence is defined as shifts away from the opinion of others and hypothesized to be induced by discrepancy with or disliking of the source of influence. There is strong empirical support for the presence of positive social influence (a shift towards the opinion of others), but evidence that large opinion differences or disliking could trigger negative shifts is mixed. We examine positive and negative influence with controlled exposure to opinions of other individuals in one experiment and with opinion exchange in another study. Results confirm that similarities induce attraction, but results do not support that discrepancy or disliking entails negative influence. Instead, our findings suggest a robust positive linear relationship between opinion distance and opinion shifts.

  15. European dental students' opinions on their local anaesthesia education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, H.S.; Tan, L.L.S.; van der Spek, S.J.; Baart, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate students’ opinion about theoretical and clinical training in local anaesthesia at different European dental schools. Materials and Methods: A questionnaire was designed to collect information about local anaesthesia teaching. Students’ opinion was quantified with five-point

  16. A Survey of Key Technology of Network Public Opinion Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li Su Ying

    2016-01-01

    The internet has become an important base for internet users to make comments because of its interactivity and fast dissemination. The outbreak of internet public opinion has become a major risk for network information security. Domestic and foreign researchers had carried out extensive and in-depth study on public opinion. Fruitful results have achieved in the basic theory research and emergency handling and other aspects of public opinion. But research on the public opinion in China is stil...

  17. Collaborative update of a rule-based expert system for HIV-1 genotypic resistance test interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Roger; Tzou, Philip L; van Zyl, Gert; Barrow, Geoff; Camacho, Ricardo; Carmona, Sergio; Grant, Philip M; Gupta, Ravindra K; Hamers, Raph L; Harrigan, P Richard; Jordan, Michael R; Kantor, Rami; Katzenstein, David A; Kuritzkes, Daniel R; Maldarelli, Frank; Otelea, Dan; Wallis, Carole L; Schapiro, Jonathan M; Shafer, Robert W

    2017-01-01

    HIV-1 genotypic resistance test (GRT) interpretation systems (IS) require updates as new studies on HIV-1 drug resistance are published and as treatment guidelines evolve. An expert panel was created to provide recommendations for the update of the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVDB) GRT-IS. The panel was polled on the ARVs to be included in a GRT report, and the drug-resistance interpretations associated with 160 drug-resistance mutation (DRM) pattern-ARV combinations. The DRM pattern-ARV combinations included 52 nucleoside RT inhibitor (NRTI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 4 NRTIs), 27 nonnucleoside RT inhibitor (NNRTI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (9 patterns x 3 NNRTIs), 39 protease inhibitor (PI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 3 PIs) and 42 integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) DRM pattern-ARV combinations (14 patterns x 3 INSTIs). There was universal agreement that a GRT report should include the NRTIs lamivudine, abacavir, zidovudine, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; the NNRTIs efavirenz, etravirine, nevirapine, and rilpivirine; the PIs atazanavir/r, darunavir/r, and lopinavir/r (with "/r" indicating pharmacological boosting with ritonavir or cobicistat); and the INSTIs dolutegravir, elvitegravir, and raltegravir. There was a range of opinion as to whether the NRTIs stavudine and didanosine and the PIs nelfinavir, indinavir/r, saquinavir/r, fosamprenavir/r, and tipranavir/r should be included. The expert panel members provided highly concordant DRM pattern-ARV interpretations with only 6% of NRTI, 6% of NNRTI, 5% of PI, and 3% of INSTI individual expert interpretations differing from the expert panel median by more than one resistance level. The expert panel median differed from the HIVDB 7.0 GRT-IS for 20 (12.5%) of the 160 DRM pattern-ARV combinations including 12 NRTI, two NNRTI, and six INSTI pattern-ARV combinations. Eighteen of these differences were updated in HIVDB 8.1 GRT-IS to reflect the

  18. Collaborative update of a rule-based expert system for HIV-1 genotypic resistance test interpretation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Paredes

    Full Text Available HIV-1 genotypic resistance test (GRT interpretation systems (IS require updates as new studies on HIV-1 drug resistance are published and as treatment guidelines evolve.An expert panel was created to provide recommendations for the update of the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVDB GRT-IS. The panel was polled on the ARVs to be included in a GRT report, and the drug-resistance interpretations associated with 160 drug-resistance mutation (DRM pattern-ARV combinations. The DRM pattern-ARV combinations included 52 nucleoside RT inhibitor (NRTI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 4 NRTIs, 27 nonnucleoside RT inhibitor (NNRTI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (9 patterns x 3 NNRTIs, 39 protease inhibitor (PI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (13 patterns x 3 PIs and 42 integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI DRM pattern-ARV combinations (14 patterns x 3 INSTIs.There was universal agreement that a GRT report should include the NRTIs lamivudine, abacavir, zidovudine, emtricitabine, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; the NNRTIs efavirenz, etravirine, nevirapine, and rilpivirine; the PIs atazanavir/r, darunavir/r, and lopinavir/r (with "/r" indicating pharmacological boosting with ritonavir or cobicistat; and the INSTIs dolutegravir, elvitegravir, and raltegravir. There was a range of opinion as to whether the NRTIs stavudine and didanosine and the PIs nelfinavir, indinavir/r, saquinavir/r, fosamprenavir/r, and tipranavir/r should be included. The expert panel members provided highly concordant DRM pattern-ARV interpretations with only 6% of NRTI, 6% of NNRTI, 5% of PI, and 3% of INSTI individual expert interpretations differing from the expert panel median by more than one resistance level. The expert panel median differed from the HIVDB 7.0 GRT-IS for 20 (12.5% of the 160 DRM pattern-ARV combinations including 12 NRTI, two NNRTI, and six INSTI pattern-ARV combinations. Eighteen of these differences were updated in HIVDB 8.1 GRT-IS to reflect

  19. Surgeon-industry conflict of interest: survey of opinions regarding industry-sponsored educational events and surgeon teaching: clinical article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiPaola, Christian P; Dea, Nicolas; Dvorak, Marcel F; Lee, Robert S; Hartig, Dennis; Fisher, Charles G

    2014-03-01

    Conflict of interest (COI) as it applies to medical education and training has become a source of considerable interest, debate, and regulation in the last decade. Companies often pay surgeons as faculty for educational events and often sponsor and give financial support to major professional society meetings. Professional medical societies, industry, and legislators have attempted to regulate potential COI without consideration for public opinion. The practice of evidence-based medicine requires the inclusion of patient opinion along with best available evidence and expert opinion. The primary goal of this study was to assess the opinion of the general population regarding surgeon-industry COI for education-related events. A Web-based survey was administered, with special emphasis on the surgeon's role in industry-sponsored education and support of professional societies. A survey was constructed to sample opinions on reimbursement, disclosure, and funding sources for educational events. There were 501 completed surveys available for analysis. More than 90% of respondents believed that industry funding for surgeons' tuition and travel for either industry-sponsored or professional society educational meetings would either not affect the quality of care delivered or would cause it to improve. Similar results were generated for opinions on surgeons being paid by industry to teach other surgeons. Moreover, the majority of respondents believed it was ethical or had no opinion if surgeons had such a relationship with industry. Respondents were also generally in favor of educational conferences for surgeons regardless of funding source. Disclosures of a surgeon-industry relationship, especially if it involves specific devices that may be used in their surgery, appears to be important to respondents. The vast majority of respondents in this study do not believe that the quality of their care will be diminished due to industry funding of educational events, for surgeon

  20. Internet censorship in Turkey: University students' opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Ozkan, Arda Arikan

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study university students’ opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio‐political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey,the opinions of university students (n=138 are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire aimed to collect dataon some chosen aspects of censorship which are internet access regulation by legal authorities, online pornographiccontent, websites distributing illegal and crime related information and the political and religious aspects of the internetcensorship. The findings about these four basic aspects toward the online censorship revealed that despite the highproportion of approval, participants have a confused and inconsistent attitude towards the issue especially within theapplication and the idea of censorship. In a broader aspect, the findings can be interpreted as a sign of university students’insufficient knowledge and understanding towards the current situation and the possible future of online censorship inTurkey

  1. How does public opinion become extreme?

    CERN Document Server

    Ramos, Marlon; Reis, Saulo D S; Anteneodo, Celia; Andrade, José S; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are "very conservative" versus "moderate to very conservative" ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual "stubbornness" that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate ...

  2. 29 CFR 18.610 - Religious beliefs or opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Religious beliefs or opinions. 18.610 Section 18.610 Labor... OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW JUDGES Rules of Evidence Witnesses § 18.610 Religious beliefs or opinions. Evidence of the beliefs or opinions of a witness on matters of religion is not admissible for the purpose...

  3. Factors contributing to the accessibility of opinion leaders in Lesotho ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... opinion leaders identified by means of sociometric methods with the number of nominations as the major indicator of degree of influence or strength of opinion leadership. The findings reveal that socio-psychological accessibility is not a serious constraint in the diffusion of innovations through opinion leaders, because the ...

  4. Opinion Dynamics with Heterogeneous Interactions and Information Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir Tabatabaei, Seydeh Anahita

    2013-01-01

    In any modern society, individuals interact to form opinions on various topics, including economic, political, and social aspects. Opinions evolve as the result of the continuous exchange of information among individuals and of the assimilation of information distributed by media. The impact of individuals' opinions on each other forms a network,…

  5. Opinion data mining based on DNA method and ORA software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Ru-Ya; Wu, Lei; Liang, Xiao-He; Zhang, Xue-Fu

    2018-01-01

    Public opinion, especially the online public opinion is a critical issue when it comes to mining its characteristics. Because it can be formed directly and intensely in a short time, and may lead to the outbreak of online group events, and the formation of online public opinion crisis. This may become the pushing hand of a public crisis event, or even have negative social impacts, which brings great challenges to the government management. Data from the mass media which reveal implicit, previously unknown, and potentially valuable information, can effectively help us to understand the evolution law of public opinion, and provide a useful reference for rumor intervention. Based on the Dynamic Network Analysis method, this paper uses ORA software to mine characteristics of public opinion information, opinion topics, and public opinion agents through a series of indicators, and quantitatively analyzed the relationships between them. The results show that through the analysis of the 8 indexes associating with opinion data mining, we can have a basic understanding of the public opinion characteristics of an opinion event, such as who is important in the opinion spreading process, the information grasping condition, and the opinion topics release situation.

  6. 28 CFR 80.9 - No oral opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false No oral opinion. 80.9 Section 80.9 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.9 No oral opinion. No oral clearance, release or other statement purporting to limit the...

  7. Multi-level opinion dynamics under bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Gang; Zhao, Yiyi; Peng, Yi; Shi, Yong

    2012-01-01

    Opinion dynamics focuses on the opinion evolution in a social community. Recently, some models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence were proposed by Deffuant and Krause, et al. In the literature, agents were generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence level. This paper proposes an extended model for a group of agents with heterogeneous confidence levels. First, a social differentiation theory is introduced and a social group is divided into opinion subgroups with distinct confidence levels. Second, a multi-level heterogeneous opinion formation model is formulated under the framework of bounded confidence. Finally, computer simulations are conducted to study the collective opinion evolution, focusing on three key factors: the fractions of heterogeneous agents, the initial opinions, and the group size. The simulation results demonstrate that the number of final opinions depends on the fraction of close-minded agents when the group size and the initial opinions are fixed; the final opinions converge more easily when the initial opinions are closer; and the number of final opinions can be approximately modeled by a linear increasing function of the group size and the increasing rate is the fraction of close-minded agents.

  8. 28 CFR 80.8 - Attorney General opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Attorney General opinion. 80.8 Section 80.8 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.8 Attorney General opinion. The Attorney General or his designee shall, within 30 days after...

  9. Non-consensus opinion models on complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Qian; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanldy, H Eugene; Havline, Shlomo

    2012-01-01

    We focus on non-consensus opinion models in which above a certain threshold two opinions coexist in a stable relationship. We revisit and extend the non-consensus opinion (NCO) model introduced by Shao. We generalize the NCO model by adding a weight factor W to individual's own opinion when determining its future opinion (NCOW model). We find that as W increases the minority opinion holders tend to form stable clusters with a smaller initial minority fraction compared to the NCO model. We also revisit another non-consensus opinion, the inflexible contrarian opinion (ICO) model, which introduces inflexible contrarians to model a competition between two opinions in the steady state. In the ICO model, the inflexible contrarians effectively decrease the size of the largest cluster of the rival opinion. All of the above models have previously been explored in terms of a single network. However opinions propagate not only within single networks but also between networks, we study here the opinion dynamics in couple...

  10. 42 CFR 1008.15 - Facts subject to advisory opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Facts subject to advisory opinions. 1008.15 Section... Requesting Party § 1008.15 Facts subject to advisory opinions. (a) The OIG will consider requests from a requesting party for advisory opinions regarding the application of specific facts to the subject matters set...

  11. 12 CFR 211.11 - Advisory opinions under Regulation K.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Advisory opinions under Regulation K. 211.11... INTERNATIONAL BANKING OPERATIONS (REGULATION K) International Operations of U.S. Banking Organizations § 211.11 Advisory opinions under Regulation K. (a) Request for advisory opinion. Any person may submit a request to...

  12. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... FOR THE CERTIFICATION AND RE-CERTIFICATION OF THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT'S COMPLIANCE WITH THE 40... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to... and technical views to expert panels as input to any expert elicitation process. ...

  13. Knowledge acquisition for a simple expert controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieker, B.

    1987-01-01

    A method is presented for process control which has the properties of being incremental, cyclic and top-down. It is described on the basis of the development of an expert controller for a simple, but nonlinear control route. A quality comparison between expert controller and process operator shows the ability of the method for knowledge acquisition.

  14. [How to expose fraudulent expert witnesses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimmer, W

    1990-01-01

    In our courtrooms you can meet, up to this day, experts of dubious qualities if not mere shams and deceivers. They are found in all sciences, but also in pseudo-sciences as paramedicine and parapsychology. In any case such expert pretenders must be exposed by the judge to prevent dangerous miscarriage of justice. Examples are given how to unmask the fraudulent rascals.

  15. Contextual factors for finding similar experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmann, K.; Balog, K.; Bogers, T.; de Rijke, M.

    2010-01-01

    Expertise-seeking research studies how people search for expertise and choose whom to contact in the context of a specific task. An important outcome are models that identify factors that influence expert finding. Expertise retrieval addresses the same problem, expert finding, but from a

  16. Lithuanian public opinion and the EU membership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Dragomir

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available During the early 1990s, following the restoration of independence, Lithuania reoriented in terms of foreign policy towards West. One of the state’s main foreign policy goals became the accession to the EU and NATO. Acknowledging that the ‘opinion of the people’ is a crucial factor in today’s democracy as it is important and necessary for politicians to know and take into consideration the ‘public opinion’, that is the opinion of the people they represent, this paper brings into attention the public support for the political pro-West project. The paper is structured in two main parts. The first one presents in short the politicians’ discourse regarding Lithuania’s accession to the EU and its general ‘returning to Europe’, in the general context of the state’s new foreign policy, while the second part presents the results of different public opinion surveys regarding the same issue. Comparing these two sides, in the end, the paper provides the answer that the Lithuanian people backed the political elites in their European projects. Although, the paper does not represent a breakthrough for the scientific community, its findings could be of interest for those less familiarized with the Lithuanian post-Cold War history, and especially for the Romanian public to whom this journal mainly addresses.

  17. Expert systems in treating substance abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, D R; Hink, R H

    1990-05-01

    Computer programs can assist humans in solving complex problems that cannot be solved by traditional computational techniques using mathematic formulas. These programs, or "expert systems," are commonly used in finance, engineering, and computer design. Although not routinely used in medicine at present, medical expert systems have been developed to assist physicians in solving many kinds of medical problems that traditionally require consultation from a physician specialist. No expert systems are available specifically for drug abuse treatment, but at least one is under development. Where access to a physician specialist in substance abuse is not available for consultation, this expert system will extend specialized substance abuse treatment expertise to nonspecialists. Medical expert systems are a developing technologic tool that can assist physicians in practicing better medicine.

  18. Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appazov, Artur

    The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

  19. [The future issues of health services research: what do experts say?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenz-Farenholtz, B; Schmidt, A; Verheyen, F; Pfaff, H

    2012-10-01

    The expectations of health services research are growing with its recognition and acceptance as an independent field within health research. What are the issues that health services research should deal with in future to perform the tasks it will be confronted with? Different health-care players like physicians, scientists, sponsors, and third-party payers were invited to give answers to these questions which was the aim of the workshop held in Cologne on the 8th November 2010. The IMVR (Institute for Medical Sociology, Health Services Research, and Rehabilitation Science, University of Cologne) and WINEG (Scientific Institute of TechnikerKrankenkasse for the Benefit and Efficiency in Health Care) jointly hosted the 'Expert Workshop - Future Issues of Health Services Research' in order to get closer to meeting this goal. Experts met in 4 focus groups to identify the future issues of health services research in the one-day workshop in Cologne in November 2010. The participants discussed their proposed issues in a moderated session and decided on the key future issues of health services research in a double voting procedure. 36 experts accepted the invitation. Of these 6 were experts of the medical profession, 4 of the group of sponsors, 13 scientific experts and 13 experts of the groups of third-party payers. According to their rating, "intersectoral networking", "patients' preferences", and "the evaluation of innovations, processes, and methods" are the 3 key future issues of health services research. The experts developed the key future issues for health services research according to their opinion. They answered the question on the issues, health services research should be occupied with in future, i.e. a broad range of topics. To a certain extent, they returned to former issues and problems for which satisfactory solutions have not yet been found. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  20. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  1. Can experts judge elections? Testing the validity of expert judgments for measuring election integrity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinez i Coma, F.; van Ham, C.T.

    2015-01-01

    Expert surveys have been used to measure a wide variety of phenomena in political science, ranging from party positions, to corruption, to the quality of democracy and elections. However, expert judgments raise important validity concerns, both about the object being measured as well as the experts.

  2. Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110 sl...

  3. Good expert knowledge, small scope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Horst

    2014-01-01

    During many years of occupational stress research, mostly within the German governmental program for "Humanization of Work Life'', remarkable deficits concerning visual work were seen, the most striking being the lack of cooperation between the different experts. With regard to this article hard arguments and ideas for solutions had to be found. A pilot study in 21 enterprises was realized (1602 employees with different visual work tasks). A test set of screening parameters (visual acuity, refraction, phoria, binocular cooperation and efficiency, accommodation range and color vision) were measured. The glasses and/or contact lenses worn were registered and the visual tasks analyzed. In work at visual display units (VDU) the eye movements were recorded and standardized questionnaires were given (health, stress, visual work situation). Because of the heterogeneity of the sample only simple statistics were applied: in groups of different visual work the complaints, symptoms, hassles and uplifts were clustered (SAS software) and correlated with the results of the visual tests. Later a special project in 8 companies (676 employees) was carried out. The results were published in [14]. Discomfort and asthenopic symptoms could be seen as an interaction of the combination of tasks and working conditions with the clusters of individual functionalisms, frequently originating in postural compromises. Mainly three causes for stress could be identified: 1. demands inadequate with regard to intensity, resolution, amount and/or time structure; 2. prevention of elementary perceptive needs; 3. entire use of partial capacities of the visual organ. Symptoms also were correlated with heteronomy. Other findings: influence of adaptation/accommodation ratio, the distracting role of attractors, especially in multitasking jobs; influence of high luminance differences. Dry eyes were very common, they could be attributed to a high screen position, low light, monotonous tasks and office

  4. [The possibility of medico-legal opinionating on medical error in cases of waived postmortem examination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Jerzy

    2008-01-01

    For several years now, with the introduction of the health care sector reform we have been observing a considerable drop in the number of postmortem examinations performed in patients who died in hospitals. The decrease amounts to as much as 50 to 70%. This is undoubtedly a consequence of financial restrictions imposed on the management of these inpatient facilities. On the other hand, Departments of Forensic Medicine established to evaluate the so-called medical errors are swamped with an increasing avalanche of complaints concerning the appropriateness of therapeutic management. This leads to a growing number of orders from penal prosecution and jurisdiction agencies with requests for assessment whether a medical error has been committed in a particular case. The result of a postmortem examination is practically the only basis for a factual evaluation of a given case. When no autopsy has been performed, the experts are virtually helpless, and in the majority of such instances, they are forced to refuse passing an expert opinion. The report presents basic principles of medico-legal opinionating in criminal cases (including proceedings pertaining to medical errors), the rules governing the medical error assessment, as well as problems encountered in evaluating the appropriate course of treatment when a post mortem examination has been waived.

  5. How should complementary and alternative medicine be taught to medical students in Switzerland? A survey of medical experts and students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolao, Marie; Täuber, Martin G; Heusser, Peter

    2010-01-01

    In Switzerland and in the whole western world, the growing popularity of CAM is calling for its implementation in the undergraduate medical curriculum. To determine whether medical experts and medical students are favorable to complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) education at Swiss medical schools and to investigate their opinion about its form, content and goals. Experts in the fields of conventional medicine (COM, n = 106), CAM experts (n = 29) and senior medical students (n = 640) were surveyed by an online questionnaire. 48.7% of the COM experts, 100% of the CAM experts, and 72.6% of the students are favorable to CAM education at Swiss medical schools. The most requested disciplines are acupuncture, phytotherapy, and homeopathy; the most recommended characteristics of CAM education are elective courses, during the clinical years, in the format of seminars and lectures. For the CAM experts, the priority is to improve the students' knowledge of CAM, whereas for the COM experts and the students, the priority is to analyze efficiency, security, interactions, and secondary effects of CAM. CAM courses should be informative, giving the students sufficient knowledge to provide a critical analysis of efficiency and security of different CAM modalities.

  6. A Survey of Key Technology of Network Public Opinion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Su Ying

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The internet has become an important base for internet users to make comments because of its interactivity and fast dissemination. The outbreak of internet public opinion has become a major risk for network information security. Domestic and foreign researchers had carried out extensive and in-depth study on public opinion. Fruitful results have achieved in the basic theory research and emergency handling and other aspects of public opinion. But research on the public opinion in China is still in the initial stage, the key technology of the public opinion analysis is still as a starting point for in-depth study and discussion.

  7. Gender and personality traits' (BFI-10) effect on opinion leadership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olexova, Cecilia; Sudzina, Frantisek

    2017-01-01

    Opinion leadership used to be perceived as a highly domain-specific trait but it was found to be multi-faceted, i.e. individuals are influential independent of a specific subject area. Another term is generalized opinion leadership. Impact of Big Five Inventory personality traits on domain......-specific opinion leadership mediated through objective knowledge and generalized opinion leadership was investigated by Gnambs and Batinic. According to them, generalized opinion leadership should be influenced by extraversion, neuroticism, and openness to experience. The paper can be perceived as a replication...

  8. OpinionSeer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingcai; Wei, Furu; Liu, Shixia; Au, Norman; Cui, Weiwei; Zhou, Hong; Qu, Huamin

    2010-01-01

    The rapid development of Web technology has resulted in an increasing number of hotel customers sharing their opinions on the hotel services. Effective visual analysis of online customer opinions is needed, as it has a significant impact on building a successful business. In this paper, we present OpinionSeer, an interactive visualization system that could visually analyze a large collection of online hotel customer reviews. The system is built on a new visualization-centric opinion mining technique that considers uncertainty for faithfully modeling and analyzing customer opinions. A new visual representation is developed to convey customer opinions by augmenting well-established scatterplots and radial visualization. To provide multiple-level exploration, we introduce subjective logic to handle and organize subjective opinions with degrees of uncertainty. Several case studies illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of OpinionSeer on analyzing relationships among multiple data dimensions and comparing opinions of different groups. Aside from data on hotel customer feedback, OpinionSeer could also be applied to visually analyze customer opinions on other products or services.

  9. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  10. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

  11. Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems - from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14-16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size of 45 experts (median of the rank

  12. PageRank model of opinion formation on social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiah, Vivek; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

    2012-11-01

    We propose the PageRank model of opinion formation and investigate its rich properties on real directed networks of the Universities of Cambridge and Oxford, LiveJournal, and Twitter. In this model, the opinion formation of linked electors is weighted with their PageRank probability. Such a probability is used by the Google search engine for ranking of web pages. We find that the society elite, corresponding to the top PageRank nodes, can impose its opinion on a significant fraction of the society. However, for a homogeneous distribution of two opinions, there exists a bistability range of opinions which depends on a conformist parameter characterizing the opinion formation. We find that the LiveJournal and Twitter networks have a stronger tendency to a totalitarian opinion formation than the university networks. We also analyze the Sznajd model generalized for scale-free networks with the weighted PageRank vote of electors.

  13. OPINION GIVING SERVICES AS A SOURCE OF CONSUMER INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Wyrwisz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is to determine the place and role of opinion giving services in consumer behaviours. The discussion is conducted around the thesis saying that in the information society, opinion giving services constitute an important source of information for consumers in the process of selecting and purchasing both products and services. In the article the research approach based on the theoretical and empirical examinations was presented. The discussion starts with presenting a defi nition and types of opinion giving services which constitute the base for the characteristics of activities and usefulness of web portals collecting consumers opinions. The use of opinion giving services provided in the purchase process was evaluated. An essential interest in other consumers opinions, placed in Internet, was observed together with perceiving them as credible. Positive assessment of the functionality of opinion giving services was noticed.

  14. Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-04-01

    Social dynamic opinion models have been widely studied to understand how interactions among individuals cause opinions to evolve. Most opinion models that utilize spin interaction models usually produce a consensus steady state in which only one opinion exists. Because in reality different opinions usually coexist, we focus on non-consensus opinion models in which above a certain threshold two opinions coexist in a stable relationship. We revisit and extend the non-consensus opinion (NCO) model introduced by Shao et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 103:01870, 2009). The NCO model in random networks displays a second order phase transition that belongs to regular mean field percolation and is characterized by the appearance (above a certain threshold) of a large spanning cluster of the minority opinion. We generalize the NCO model by adding a weight factor W to each individual's original opinion when determining their future opinion (NCO W model). We find that as W increases the minority opinion holders tend to form stable clusters with a smaller initial minority fraction than in the NCO model. We also revisit another non-consensus opinion model based on the NCO model, the inflexible contrarian opinion (ICO) model (Li et al. in Phys. Rev. E 84:066101, 2011), which introduces inflexible contrarians to model the competition between two opinions in a steady state. Inflexible contrarians are individuals that never change their original opinion but may influence the opinions of others. To place the inflexible contrarians in the ICO model we use two different strategies, random placement and one in which high-degree nodes are targeted. The inflexible contrarians effectively decrease the size of the largest rival-opinion cluster in both strategies, but the effect is more pronounced under the targeted method. All of the above models have previously been explored in terms of a single network, but human communities are usually interconnected, not isolated. Because opinions propagate not

  15. Expert recommendations on treating psoriasis in special circumstances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrascosa, J M; Belinchón, I; de-la-Cueva, P; Izu, R; Luelmo, J; Ruiz-Villaverde, R

    2015-05-01

    A great amount of information on systemic and biologic therapies for moderate to severe psoriasis is now available. However, applying the evidence in numerous clinical scenarios has engendered debate; under these circumstances, the consensus of experts is useful. A scientific committee systematically reviewed the literature relevant to 5 clinical scenarios. An online Delphi survey of dermatologists with experience treating moderate to severe psoriasis was then carried out in order to shed light on questions that remained unresolved by the available evidence. Twenty-three dermatologists responded to the survey and consensus was reached on 37 (56%) of the 66 statements proposed. These results led to consensus on various clinical situations even though firm evidence was lacking. Thus, intermittent therapeutic regimens and strategies for reducing the intensity of treatment are considered appropriate for optimizing biologic treatment and reducing costs. The measurement of drug and antidrug antibody levels should be included routinely when following patients on biologics to treat psoriasis. Concomitant psoriatic arthritis or a history of cardiovascular conditions will influence the choice of biologic; in these situations, an agent with anti-tumor necrosis factor properties will be preferred. Tailored management is important when the patient is pregnant or intends to conceive; drug half-life and disease severity are important factors to take into consideration in these scenarios. A combination of systematic review of the literature and structured discussion of expert opinion facilitates decision-making in specific clinical scenarios. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

  16. Expert witness testimony in ophthalmology malpractice litigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Grace; Fang, Christina H; Friedman, Remy; Bhagat, Neelakshi; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Langer, Paul D

    2015-03-01

    To examine the relative qualifications of expert witnesses testifying on behalf of plaintiffs vs defendants in ophthalmology malpractice litigation. Correlational and descriptive study; analysis of expert witness and physician demographic data available on several databases. The Westlaw legal database was searched for ophthalmologist expert witness testimony from January 2006 to June 2014. Physician demographic data were used as the main outcome measures, including length of experience, scholarly impact (as measured by the h-index), practice setting, and fellowship training status and were obtained from state medical licensing board sites and online medical facility and practice sites. H-indices were obtained from the Scopus database. Defendant and plaintiff expert witnesses had comparable mean years of experience (32.9 and 35.7, respectively) (P = .12) and scholarly impact (h-index = 8.6 and 8.3, respectively) (P = .42). Cases tended to resolve on the side of the expert witness with the higher h-index (P = .04). Significantly higher proportions of defendant witnesses were in academic practice (P < .05) and underwent fellowship training (P < .001). Ophthalmologist expert witnesses testifying for both plaintiffs and defendants had over 30 years of experience and high scholarly impact. Practitioners testifying on behalf of plaintiffs were statistically less likely to work in an academic setting and have subspecialty training. Scholarly impact of expert witnesses appeared to affect trial outcomes. Surgical societies should stringently police for appropriate expert witness testimony given by both plaintiff and defense experts in malpractice litigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Expert systems and ballistic range data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, Wayne; Steinhoff, Mark; Whyte, Robert; Brown, David; Choate, Jeff; Adelgren, Russ

    1992-07-01

    A program aimed at the development of an expert system for the reduction of ballistic range data is described. The program applies expert system and artificial intelligence techniques to develop a mathematically complex state-of-the-art spark range data reduction procedure that includes linear theory and six-degree-of-freedom analysis. The scope of the knowledge base includes both spin and statically stable vehicles. The expert system is expected to improve the quality of the data reduction process while reducing the work load on the senior range engineer.

  18. GEST = The Generic Expert System Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, John F.; Ho, David; Howard, Chuck

    1986-03-01

    The development cycle of an expert system can be decreased if an effective expert system tool (EST) is used. This paper describes the Generic Expert System Tool (GEST) developed by the Artificial Intelligence Branch of the Georgia Tech Research Institute. GEST was developed to be as general purpose as possible while incorporating all of the basic features required of an EST used for real world applications. This paper outlines GEST's basic software architecture and highlights a variety of it's processing elements. A discussion of future enhancement currently being implemented to increase GEST's application domains is also provided.

  19. Psychiatric expert witnesses in the new millennium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutheil, Thomas G

    2006-09-01

    We may anticipate changes in who is the expert in terms of gender, ethnicity, and professional discipline. We anticipate elaboration of training approaches. We foresee emergence of the "forensic tutor" role. We expect expansion of expert roles outside the courtroom. We expect demands for more constraint of expert roles, increased rigor, and empiric support. We expect vast expansion of technologic approaches to assessment and presentation. We expect evolution of ethical issues with preservation of core forensic values but changes in confidentiality, due process, and the nature of assessments. We expect extreme expansion of hard sciences in relation to understanding psychopathology.

  20. Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.