WorldWideScience

Sample records for expert opinion steuerreform

  1. Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

    1989-01-01

    In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

  2. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  3. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  4. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  5. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elstner, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

  6. Objectification of injuries and consequences in expert medical opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miran Vrabl

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Only unequivocal evidence confirming the total extent of injury. Biomechanical analysis, objectifications of permanent consequences after injury and objectification, whether such injuries influence life activities of an injured person, should be the basics for preparation of expert medical opinion. To make a necessary distinction from the previous injuries or illnesses that might have influence on current health state of a patient and its treatment, analysis of all medical records of a certain injured person is needed. Therefore this are inevitable steps in preparation of an expert medical opinion. In cases when medical opinion should explain disability of a patient as a consequence of a certain contractual relationship, the contract should be taken into consideration when such opinions is prepared.Methods: 500 opinions have been retrospectively analysed, selected at random out of 3452 opinions, submitted in claims for damages at Zavarovalnica Maribor, d. d., in the period from January 2001 until January 2006. Thirteen typical data have been analysed and evaluated on the basis of objective evidences.Results: On the basis of analyses it has been established that there is a great difference between principles of objectification and the data in analysed opinions. It has been noticed the most obvious deviation in biomechanical analysis (95 %, in records of decreased life activities (90 %, in all medical records of an injured person (65 % and in objectification of permanent consequences after injuries (55 %.Conclusions: As results of analysis demonstrate, there are significant differences in preparations of expert and medical opinions in Slovenia, particularly when basic principles are analysed that need to be considered when writing such opinions. Irrational avoidance of basic principle of objectification, nomination of experts without licence in certain fields of medicine, avoidance of objectification of subjective statements of injured

  7. Tax reform for ecologic reasons: The basic legal situation in Germany. Expert opinion; Steuerreform unter oekologischen Aspekten: Rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen. Gutachterliche Stellungnahme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birk, D.; Eckhoff, R. [Muenster Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Steuerrecht

    1999-04-01

    A model simulating the outcome of an ecologic tax reform in Germany is presented and discussed. The model was elaborated by Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) and Finanzwissenschaftliches Forschungsinstitut (Fifo) of Cologne University. The model sets out the framework and scope of such a tax reform, as well as individual policy instruments, such as introduction of tax on energy consumption, an increase of the mineral oil tax, introduction of a road-use tax, introduction of new and increase of existing charges for waste management, a modification and increase of the sewage levy, and in the long run, introduction of a tax on land consumption by built environments. An analysis of the redistributional effects of the theoretical tax on energy consumption together with the increased mineral oil tax revealed that the prorated expenses for energy in relation to total incomes and revenues are declining with rising income. Especially the prorated expense for automotive fuels shows a particularly steep rise, which is calculated by the model to decline again only within the group of households with a very high income. The financial burden effect of the energy tax in relation to the available income and revenues is described by a regressive curve similar to the energy expenses curve, other than with the tax burden curve due to the increased mineral oil tax, which is calculated to have a regressive effect only at higher income levels, i.e. from a private household net income of DM 4000. Considering however the tax burden effects resulting from both the energy tax and the increased mineral oil tax, for all private hoseholds, a regressive effect is expected to set in as from a household income of DM 1000. (orig./CB) [Deutsch] Das vom Deutschen Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) und vom Finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstitut der Universitaet zu Koeln (Fifo) entworfene Modell einer oekologischen Steuerreform sieht die Einfuehrung einer Energiesteuer, eine

  8. 29 CFR 18.703 - Bases of opinion testimony by experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Bases of opinion testimony by experts. The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Bases of opinion testimony by experts. 18.703 Section 18.703 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS...

  9. [Psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers in Germany].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieberer, Marcel; Ziegenbein, Marc; Eckhardt, Gudrun; Machleidt, Wielant; Calliess, Iris T

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the frequency of traumatisation, suicidality and given diagnoses in expert opinions on asylum seekers and to describe the sociodemographic characteristics of this population. The psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers, furnished in an 8-year-period at Hannover Medical School, were analysed retrospectively for qualitative and quantitative characteristics. 62 psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers were included in this study. The asylum seekers originated from 18 different countries, mainly from Turkey and former Yugoslavia. Most expert opinions were given in secondary asylum procedures, i. e. after the initial asylum request had been rejected. The asylum seekers reported on traumatisation in 82.3 %. The most frequently reported forms of traumatisation were rape in female, and torture in male persons. According to ICD-10 or DSM-IV-R criteria posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was the most frequent diagnosis (74.1 %) in this study. The second most common diagnoses were depressive disorders (ICD-10: F32.x in 33.9 % and ICD-10: F33.x in 25.9 %). Suicidal tendency was found in 56.5 % of the asylum seekers. Cultural differences, language barriers, a heavy burden by psychological symptoms, and clinical severity are difficulties in the process of psychiatric assessment of refugees in legal asylum procedures. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  10. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

    2007-01-01

    Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

  11. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  12. The rational thinking of expert opinion and communicating in courtroom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the past half century, expert testimony has played an increasingly important role in Chinese litigation. As the amount of expert testimony has grown, the issues about its admissibility and scientific foundation related to evidence are becoming to be questioned commonly. Since eighteenth central committee (China adopted the decision of the Central Committee of China on several important issues in promoting the legal system, the evidence was redefined to become the predominance in the whole proceeding. This article reviews the expert knowledge implicit in the opinions. It argues that the expert opinions ask judges to be aware of the role of communicationg between participants. Expert opinion is not only gained from laboratory, but also socially constructed in the rational expression and communication, which requir us think logically in terms of legal perceptions of science and expert knowledge in the empirical world.

  13. Expert Opinion Elicitation Using Fuzzy Set Theory and Distempers-Shaker's Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Donghan

    1993-01-01

    This study presents a new approach for expert opinion elicitation. The need to work with rare events and limited data is severe accident have led analysts to use expert opinions extensively. Unlike the conventional approaches using point-valued probabilities, the study proposes the concept of fuzzy probability to represent expert opinion. The use of fuzzy probability has an advantage over the conventional approach when an expert's judgment is used under limited data and imprecise knowledge. The study demonstrates a method of combining fuzzy probabilities in a manner consistent with the Distempers-Shaper's Theory (DDT). The propagation of fuzzy probabilities through a system is also introduced

  14. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence: the precautionary principle applied to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops.

  15. Child abuse consultations initiated by child protective services: the role of expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Lindsay; Martin, Kimberly D; Leventhal, John M

    2011-01-01

    To describe consultations provided by child abuse pediatricians for cases referred by child protective services (CPS); compare the opinions of the likelihood of child maltreatment of the initial physician, CPS, and the child abuse pediatrician; and examine predictors of the experts' opinions. Cases were referred by CPS for consultations between March 1, 1998, and June 30, 2005, to 2 child abuse pediatricians at Yale-New Haven Children's Hospital. We abstracted demographic and clinical information and the opinions of the initial physician, CPS, and the child abuse expert, each coded using a 5-point scale from definite maltreatment to definite benign cause (eg, accident). Of 187 cases, 50.3% occurred in children younger than 1 year of age. Children's most serious injuries were fractures (50.8%), burns (16.6%), and bruises/abrasions (15.0%). The child abuse experts' opinions were 47.6% definite or probable maltreatment, 8.6% uncertain, and 43.9% definite or probable benign. Of the 119 cases with opinions from all 3 assessors, the expert agreed with the physician in 57.1% of cases (κ = 0.34) and with CPS in 64.7% (κ = 0.42). The best predictor of the expert's opinion that the injury was due to maltreatment was agreement between the physician and CPS that maltreatment had occurred. Levels of agreement were fair to poor between the child abuse expert and either the physician or CPS. Child abuse experts' opinions have important value in selected cases to confirm previous assessments by the physician and/or CPS, or to change the opinion of the case. Copyright © 2011 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

    2011-01-01

    treatment of chronic TTH. Mirtazapine and venlafaxine are second-choice drugs. EXPERT OPINION: There is an urgent need for more research in nonpharmacological as well as pharmacological treatment possibilities of TTH. Future studies should examine the relative efficacy of the various treatment modalities...

  17. Experts' opinions on the role of diet in caries prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Loveren, C; Duggal, M S

    2004-01-01

    A questionnaire was sent to 54 experts in preventive dentistry in 23 European countries in order to make an inventory of existing national dietary guidelines for the prevention of dental caries. In addition, the experts were asked to give their personal opinion on several issues concerning the relationship between diet and dental caries. Forty-five experts from 20 countries returned the questionnaire. In 13 European countries dietary guidelines for caries prevention were available issued by a National (Dental) Association or a Government Body. All guidelines emphasised a reduction of the frequency of intakes of cariogenic foods. Two of them included a threshold level for the amount of sugar. When asked for their personal opinions, almost all experts mentioned reduction of frequency of 'cariogenic' intakes as the principal dietary messages for caries prevention. Four experts, however, explicitly mentioned that proper oral hygiene with fluoride toothpaste is more important. There was no agreement among the experts about a daily number of cariogenic intakes in between meals that can be regarded as safe, nor whether the message: 'Use products with sugar substitutes' should be part of the dietary guidelines for the prevention of dental caries. There was no agreement amongst experts on preventive dentistry in Europe on the contemporary validity of the paradigm: 'Sucrose is the arch criminal of dental caries.' Taking the variation in opinions into account and the fact that a balanced diet may lead to a moderate eating and snacking frequency, the authors propose that the emphasis on good versus bad foods for caries prevention should be replaced by an emphasis on good versus bad diets. Copyright 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel

  18. Current and Emerging Ethical Issues in Counseling: A Delphi Study of Expert Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, Barbara; Dufrene, Roxane L.

    2011-01-01

    A Delphi study was conducted to ascertain the opinions of panel experts regarding the most important current and emerging ethical issues facing the counseling profession. Expert opinions on ethical issues in counselor preparation also were sought. Eighteen panelists responded to 3 rounds of data collection interspersed with feedback. Themes that…

  19. USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

  20. Use of expert opinion for animal disease decisions: an example of foot-and-mouth disease status designation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garabed, R B; Perez, A M; Johnson, W O; Thurmond, M C

    2009-11-01

    When data representing a preferred measurement of risk cannot be obtained, as is often the case for global animal diseases, decisions that affect millions of people and their animals are typically made based on expert opinion. Expert opinion can be and has been used to address the critical lack of data existing for prevalence and incidence of many global diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, when a conclusion based on expert opinion applies to a topic as sensitive as FMD, which has tremendous economic, political, and social implications, care should be taken to understand the accuracy of and differences in the opinion data. The differences in experts' opinions and the relative accuracy of an expert opinion elicitation for "diagnosing" country-level FMD presence were examined for the years 1997-2003 using Bayesian methods. A formal survey of eight international FMD experts revealed that individual experts had different opinions as to the probability of finding FMD in a country. However, a weighted average of the experts' responses was relatively accurate (91% sensitivity and 85% specificity) at identifying the FMD status of a country, compared to using a method that employed information available from World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The most apparent disagreements between individual experts and available information were found for Indonesia, South Korea, and South America, and, in general, the experts seemed to believe that countries in South Asia were more likely to be positive than other countries that reported FMD cases to OIE. This study highlights new methodology that offers a standardized, quantitative, and systematic means by which expert opinion can be used and assessed.

  1. Belief in nuclear energy: Attitudes and opinions of Dutch nuclear experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arts, F.; Klaassen, R.; De Ruiter, W.

    1994-01-01

    The public opinion in the Netherlands about nuclear energy has been rather stable during recent years. Since the Chernobyl accident roughly 60% of the Dutch population is opposed to extension of the use of nuclear energy. Nuclear experts play an important role in the formation of public opinion about nuclear energy. In this paper the social and cultural background of 87 Dutch nuclear energy experts is analyzed with respect to religious belief, age, life style, membership of a political party, birth order and career pattern. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 16 refs

  2. Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V Hampson

    Full Text Available Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa.A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.

  3. Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

    1994-01-01

    We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

  4. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-01

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To validate the developed method

  5. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions).

  6. Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Was the Conconi test validated by sporting success, expert opinion or good science? ... Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... Despite scientific evidence to the contrary, a popular incremental field test for endurance athletes (Conconi Test) ...

  7. Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

    2018-02-01

    Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  9. Risk-Informed SSCs Categorization: Elicitation Method of Expert's Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Mee Jeong; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Kil Yoo

    2005-01-15

    The regulations have been performing by deterministic way since nuclear power plants have been operating. However, some SSCs identified as safety-significance by deterministic way, were turned out to be low or non safety-significant and some SSCs identified as non-safety significance were turned out to be high safety-significant according to the results of PSA. Considering these risk insights, Regulatory Guide 1.174 and 10CFR50.69 were drawn up, and we can re-categorize the SSCs according to their safety significance. Therefore, a study and an interest about the risk-informed SSCs re-categorization and treatment has been continued. The objective of this regulatory initiative is to adjust the scope of equipment subject to special regulatory treatment to better focus licensee and regulatory attention and resources on equipment that has safety significance. Current most regulations define the plant equipment necessary to meet deterministic regulatory basis as 'safety-related.' This equipment is subject to special treatment regulations. Other plant equipment is categorized as 'non-safety related,' and is not subject to a select number of special treatment requirement or a subset of those requirement. However, risk information is not a magic tool making a decision but a supporting tool to categorize SSCs. This is because only small parts of a plant are modeled in PSA model. Thus, engineering and deterministic judgments are also used for risk-informed SSCs categorization, and expert opinion elicitation is very important for risk-informed SSCs categorization. Therefore, we need a rational method to elicit the expert's opinions, and in this study, we developed a systematic method for expert elicitation to categorize the nuclear power plants' SSCs. Current states for SSCs categorization of the USA and the existing methods for expert elicitation were surveyed and more systematic way eliciting the expert opinions and combining was developed. To

  10. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

  11. Development of the Paris Definition of Early Crohn's Disease for Disease-Modification Trials: Results of an International Expert Opinion Process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D. R.; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J.

    2012-01-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and

  12. Experts' opinion on the radioecology of the waste water of Esensham nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bliefert, M.; Marks, R.; Meier, A.; Wallenschus, M.

    1978-01-01

    Review of the legal steps taken in the dispute over the radiation burden due to the nuclear power plant. There are the experts Prof. Feld (official expert's opunion) with 0.0028 mrem/a and Prof. Bleck (plaintiff's expert's opinion) with 230 mrem/a. The different values obtained are attributed to transfer factors of Cs and to a manipulation of dose factors. (GL) [de

  13. Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Jennifer

    1987-01-01

    A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest. (UK)

  14. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion; Ozon in der Troposphaere. Bildung, Eigenschaften, Wirkungen. Gutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elstner, E.F. [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Phytopathologie

    1996-06-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [Deutsch] Das Gutachten nimmt nur am Rande die Problematik der Bildung und Ausbreitung von troposphaerischen Ozon auf; Im Mittelpunkt steht die Auseinandersetzung mit den Wirkungen des bodennahen Ozons auf Pflanze, Tier und Mensch. Das Gutachten basiert auf einer Analyse der zugaenglichen wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten. (orig./MG)

  15. Oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism: Expert opinion versus current practice: Combined results of a systematic review, expert panel opinion and an international survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, F. A.; Schreiber, K.; Stach, K.; Ageno, W.; Middeldorp, S.; Eichinger, S.; Delluc, A.; Blondon, M.; Ay, C.

    2017-01-01

    The optimal management of oral contraception and menstrual bleeding during treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is largely unknown. We aimed to elicit expert opinion and compare that to current practice as assessed by a world-wide international web-based survey among physicians. 10

  16. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  17. The opinion of experts in the assessment of reliability in nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akersten, P.A.; Wirstad, J.

    1983-06-01

    An inventory of methods used for quantifying of the opinion of experts for use in fault tree evaluations is presented. A number of different methods are evaluated and future research is recommended for three, namely 1. Saatys Analytical Hierarchy Process. 2. Embreys SLIM-method with variations. 3. Methods for feed-back from the expert group during evaluation.(authors)

  18. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD.

  19. Classification of Word Levels with Usage Frequency, Expert Opinions and Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohsah, Gihad N.; Ünal, Muhammed Esad; Güzey, Onur

    2015-01-01

    Educational applications for language teaching can utilize the language levels of words to target proficiency levels of students. This paper and the accompanying data provide a methodology for making educational standard-aligned language-level predictions for all English words. The methodology involves expert opinions on language levels and…

  20. Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J

    2016-03-01

    Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. [Digitalisation of palmar pattern configurations. Practicability in the anthropologic-heredobiological expert opinion (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berghaus, G; Baitsch, H

    1980-01-01

    A half-automatic technique for extracting characteristics from handprints is presented. Characteristics of the mainline system are defined from the co-ordinate aggregates. The practicability of the method in the anthropologic-heredobiological expert opinion is discussed.

  2. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  3. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts; Umweltpolitik. Umweltgutachten 2000 des Rates von Sachverstaendigen fuer Umweltfragen. Schritte ins naechste Jahrtausend. Kurzfassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states. [German] Eines der Schwerpunktthemen des Umweltgutachtens ist die Neuordnung der Energiepolitik. Der Umweltrat haelt die weitere Nutzung der Atomenergie vor allem wegen der Risiken der Entsorgung nicht fuer verantwortbar. Er befuerwortet die Einleitung einer Energiewende. Zur oekologischen Steuerreform werden weiterfuehrende Empfehlungen unterbreitet. An vielen Stellen nimmt der Rat die Umweltpolitik auch kritisch unter die Lupe. Er weist auf den hohen Handlungsbedarf im Naturschutz hin. Eine dauerhafte Trendwende beim Grad der Gefaehrdung heimischer Tier- und Pflanzenarten sei in Deutschland noch nicht erreicht. Der Rat bestaetigt in diesem Zusammenhang die naturschutzpolitische Konzeption der Bundesregierung fuer einen Naturschutz auf der ganzen Flaeche, kombiniert mit einem grossflaechigen Biotopverbundsystem auf 10% der Landesflaeche. Der

  4. On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

    2017-09-04

    To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

  5. Evaluating Presence Data versus Expert Opinions to Assess Occurrence, Habitat Preferences and Landscape Permeability: A Case Study of Butterflies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Arfan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI. Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

  6. Key considerations for preventing suicide in older adults: consensus opinions of an expert panel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete; Conwell, Yeates

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The number of older adults is growing rapidly. This fact, combined with the high rates of suicide in later life, indicates that many more older adults will die by their own hands before rigorous trials can be conducted to fully understand the best approaches to prevent late life suicide....... AIMS: To disseminate key considerations for interventions addressing senior suicidal behavior. METHODS: An international expert panel has reviewed and discussed key considerations for interventions against suicide in older adults based on existing evidence, where available, and expert opinion. RESULTS...

  7. Expert opinion on laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer parallels evidence from a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Martel

    Full Text Available This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence.A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores.A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews. In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031 and open (n = 2,751 colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09. Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002-2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial.Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002-2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence.

  8. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  9. Interdisciplinary management of EGFR-inhibitor-induced skin reactions: a German expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potthoff, K; Hofheinz, R; Hassel, J C; Volkenandt, M; Lordick, F; Hartmann, J T; Karthaus, M; Riess, H; Lipp, H P; Hauschild, A; Trarbach, T; Wollenberg, A

    2011-03-01

    Anti-epidermal growth factor receptor treatment strategies, i.e. monoclonal antibodies such as cetuximab and panitumumab, or epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as erlotinib and gefitinib, have expanded the treatment options for different tumor types. Dermatologic toxic effects are the most common side-effects of EGFR inhibitor therapy. They can profoundly affect the patient's quality of life. The aim of this study was to provide interdisciplinary expert recommendations on how to treat patients with skin reactions undergoing anti-EGFR treatment. An expert panel from Germany with expertise in medical oncology, dermatology or clinical pharmacology was convened to develop expert recommendations based on published peer-reviewed literature. The expert recommendations for the state-of-the-art treatment of skin reactions induced by EGFR inhibitor therapy include recommendations for diagnostics and grading as well as grade-specific and stage-adapted treatment approaches and preventive measures. It was concluded that EGFR-inhibitor-related dermatologic reactions should always be treated combining basic care of the skin and a specific therapy adapted to stage and grade of skin reaction. For grade 2 and above, specific treatment recommendations for early- and later-stage skin reactions induced by EGFR-inhibitor therapy were proposed. This paper presents a German national expert opinion for the treatment of skin reactions in patients receiving EGFR inhibitor therapy.

  10. Proposal for a structured computed tomography report in the evaluation of pancreatic neoplasms based on expert opinions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Paulo Gustavo Maciel; Matsumoto, Carlos Alberto; Lobo, Edson José; D' Ippolito, Giuseppe, E-mail: pgmlopes87@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de São Paulo (EPM/UNIFESP), SP (Brazil). Escola de Medicina

    2018-03-15

    Objective: To create a structured computed tomography (CT) report for the systematic evaluation of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), based on the opinions of clinicians and surgeons. Materials And Methods: This was a prospective study in which we applied a 21-item questionnaire to experts in pancreatic diseases in order to create a model of a structured abdominal CT report. The questionnaire addressed the location and size of PDACs, as well as their effects on adjacent structures and on the vasculature, together with metastases. We used a Likert scale to determine which of those parameters should be included in the model. Results: A total of 18 experts (12 surgeons and 6 clinicians) from 9 institutions completed the questionnaire. All of the experts agreed that the following (if present) should be described in the CT report on a PDAC: the degree of enhancement; the diameter and location of the lesion; pancreatic duct obstruction; biliary dilatation; pancreatic atrophy; liver metastases; peritoneal nodules; ascites; lymph node enlargement; and invasion of adjacent structures. More than 80% of the experts agreed that the report should also describe the relationship between the PDAC and the surrounding vasculature. Conclusion: We have developed a template for a CT report on patients with PDAC, based on the opinions of experts involved in the treatment of such patients. (author)

  11. Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Vives-Cases

    Full Text Available Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

  12. Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

  13. The effect of case-based discussion of topics with experts on learners' opinions: implications for spinal education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berjano, Pedro; Villafañe, Jorge Hugo; Vanacker, Gerard; Cecchinato, Riccardo; Ismael, Maryem; Gunzburg, Robert; Marruzzo, Daniele; Lamartina, Claudio

    2017-10-01

    This investigation aimed to examine the extent to which case-based discussion with experts could influence the audience's opinions on the treatment of patients during a continuing medical education event for spine surgeons. We conducted a prospective controlled crossover study of 90 surgeons. During a continuing medical education activity using case-based discussion, quiz questions were used which asked participants (attendants and faculty group) their opinions on the best choices about diagnosis and treatment in a number of cases. No answer was considered correct, but we evaluated the number of participants choosing each specific answer among a number of valid options. Quiz questions were collected with an automated response system at the entry and at the end of each case discussion. Change in participant's opinions was estimated from the change in the preferred answers between the entry and exit quizzes. Chi-square analysis was performed to determine significance. Sixty-two attendants out of eighty three (75%) and six faculties out of twelve (50%) responded to the survey. After the case discussion, 68.2% (p < 0.04, Chi-square test) of the attendants changed their opinion on the appropriate treatment. The faculty answers, however, showed no significant change in opinions regarding the identification of the appropriate treatment. On the basis of our results, case-based discussion driven by experts, as a form of teaching, has a measurable effect in terms of changes in the learners' opinions.

  14. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  15. Risk perception: expert opinion versus public understanding. [Of radioactive waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J

    1987-02-01

    A research project looking at the public's attitudes towards the siting of radioactive waste depositories is reported. The risk perception studies seek to compare expert and lay understanding of risk. Adverse public reactions to risk can only be understood if it is known how people relate to risks in their everyday or working lives. Social trends and experiences are important, for example, the adverse public opinion on the siting of nuclear waste facilities. A number of elements have been identified as common to different risk areas such as chemicals, drugs, food or radioactive waste. These are the clashing of values, polarization of beliefs or clashes of interest.

  16. Expert-Opinion Elicitation for the Risk Analysis of Design-Improvement Alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ayyub, Bilal M

    2002-01-01

    This report documents the expert-opinion elicitation performed to meet risk analysis needs of the lower lock approach sediment management improvement alternatives to the Lindy Claiborne Boggs Lock and Dam...

  17. [A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlenbrock, Judith; Hinrichs, Jens; Heuft, Gereon

    2017-09-01

    A retrospective study of expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital for public and private customers over a period of 12 years Objectives: Both the public and the legislative have developed an increasingly critical awareness for the fact that expert witnesses need to be independent. In contrast, to date there have been few studies concerning the quantity and the results of psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic expert opinions for public and private clients. In a retrospective study design, 285 expert opinions of a psychosomatic-psychotherapeutic university hospital stemming from consecutive, unselected random sampling over a 12-year time period (1990-2011) were analyzed using a predefined list of criteria. Besides client data, the study also noted the type and the objectives of the expertise, the sociodemographic data of the subjects, the biographic data of the subjects, the size of records, the particular psychopathological findings including conflict and structural diagnostics via the Operationalized Psychodynamic Diagnostics (OPD-2, Research Group 2006), syndromic diagnostics according to ICD-10 (WHO) including the related Impairment Scale Score (ISS, Schepank 1995), and the Global Assessment of Functioning-Scale (GAF, Heuft 2016). 54% of the subjects were men. All subjects were 46 years old at the time of examination; on average symptomatology had existed for 7 years, which made assessment of causality difficult. Most assignments referred to the effects of diseases or accidents in private contexts, followed by pension reports. Among the expert opinions related to possible implications of acts of violence, 95% were women. In 43.2% (n = 123) of the cases, the assessment had occurred in the context of legal action. In 65 cases at least one party had requested a supplemental written report during further procedure. In 17.8% (n = 22) of the cases sought by the courts, the expert witness was requested by at least one party to present the

  18. Does expert opinion match the operational definition of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS)? A case-based construct validity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golder, Vera; Huq, Molla; Franklyn, Kate; Calderone, Alicia; Lateef, Aisha; Lau, Chak Sing; Lee, Alfred Lok Hang; Navarra, Sandra Teresa V; Godfrey, Timothy; Oon, Shereen; Hoi, Alberta Yik Bun; Morand, Eric Francis; Nikpour, Mandana

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate the construct validity of the Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS), a treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Fifty SLE case summaries based on real patients were prepared and assessed independently for meeting the operational definition of LLDAS. Fifty international rheumatologists with expertise in SLE, but with no prior involvement in the LLDAS project, responded to a survey in which they were asked to categorize the disease activity state of each case as remission, low, moderate, or high. Agreement between expert opinion and LLDAS was assessed using Cohen's kappa. Overall agreement between expert opinion and the operational definition of LLDAS was 77.96% (95% CI: 76.34-79.58%), with a Cohen's kappa of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.55-0.61). Of the cases (22 of 50) that fulfilled the operational definition of LLDAS, only 5.34% (59 of 22 × 50) of responses classified the cases as moderate/high activity. Of the cases that did not fulfill the operational definition of LLDAS (28 of 50), 35.14% (492 of 28 × 50) of responses classified the cases as remission/low activity. Common reasons for discordance were assignment to remission/low activity of cases with higher corticosteroid doses than defined in LLDAS (prednisolone ≤ 7.5mg) or with SLEDAI-2K >4 due to serological activity (high anti-dsDNA antibody and/or low complement). LLDAS has good construct validity with high overall agreement between the operational definition of LLDAS and expert opinion. Discordance of results suggests that the operational definition of LLDAS is more stringent than expert opinion at defining a low disease activity state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Expert opinion on detecting and treating depression in palliative care: A Delphi study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hotopf Matthew

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a dearth of data regarding the optimal method of detecting and treating depression in palliative care. This study applied the Delphi method to evaluate expert opinion on choice of screening tool, choice of antidepressant and choice of psychological therapy. The aim was to inform the development of best practice recommendations for the European Palliative Care Research Collaborative clinical practice guideline on managing depression in palliative care. Methods 18 members of an international, multi-professional expert group completed a structured questionnaire in two rounds, rating their agreement with proposed items on a scale from 0-10 and annotating with additional comments. The median and range were calculated to give a statistical average of the experts' ratings. Results There was contention regarding the benefits of screening, with 'routine informal asking' (median 8.5 (0-10 rated more highly than formal screening tools such as the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (median 7.0 (1-10. Mirtazapine (median 9 (7-10 and citalopram (median 9 (5-10 were the considered the best choice of antidepressant and cognitive behavioural therapy (median 9.0 (3-10 the best choice of psychological therapy. Conclusions The range of expert ratings was broad, indicating discordance in the views of experts. Direct comparative data from randomised controlled trials are needed to strengthen the evidence-base and achieve clarity on how best to detect and treat depression in this setting.

  20. Perspectives of tax reforms in Croatia: expert opinion survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrvoje Šimović

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to shape tax reform it is necessary objectively to assess the current stateof-the-art of and of the outlook for the tax system. After having reviewed all previous reforms in the light of the consumption-based (interest-adjusted concept of direct taxation, which was almost systematically implemented in Croatia in 1994, we present the results of a broad expert opinion survey about the Croatian tax system. The most interesting results suggest the maintenance/(reintroduction of different tax incentives and reduced VAT rates, rejection of a flat tax as well as decrease of tax brackets, an increase in alcohol and tobacco duties, the introduction of a financial activities tax, a further shift from income to consumption, a decrease of the tax share in GDP and a belief in the behavioral responsiveness of tax decreases/exemptions, as well as a firm commitment to the principle of equity. The last three economic views/values are important predictors of other tax attitudes.

  1. Identifying deficiencies in national and foreign medical team responses through expert opinion surveys: implications for education and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djalali, Ahmadreza; Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Corte, Francesco Della; Foletti, Marco; Gallardo, Alba Ripoll; Ragazzoni, Luca; Kaptan, Kubilay; Lupescu, Olivera; Arculeo, Chris; von Arnim, Gotz; Friedl, Tom; Ashkenazi, Michael; Heselmann, Deike; Hreckovski, Boris; Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Khorrram-Manesh, Amir; Komadina, Radko; Lechner, Kostanze; Patru, Cristina; Burkle, Frederick M; Fisher, Philipp

    2014-08-01

    Unacceptable practices in the delivery of international medical assistance are reported after every major international disaster; this raises concerns about the clinical competence and practice of some foreign medical teams (FMTs). The aim of this study is to explore and analyze the opinions of disaster management experts about potential deficiencies in the art and science of national and FMTs during disasters and the impact these opinions might have on competency-based education and training. This qualitative study was performed in 2013. A questionnaire-based evaluation of experts' opinions and experiences in responding to disasters was conducted. The selection of the experts was done using the purposeful sampling method, and the sample size was considered by data saturation. Content analysis was used to explore the implications of the data. This study shows that there is a lack of competency-based training for disaster responders. Developing and performing standardized training courses is influenced by shortcomings in budget, expertise, and standards. There is a lack of both coordination and integration among teams and their activities during disasters. The participants of this study emphasized problems concerning access to relevant resources during disasters. The major findings of this study suggest that teams often are not competent during the response phase because of education and training deficiencies. Foreign medical teams and medically related nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) do not always provide expected capabilities and services. Failures in leadership and in coordination among teams are also a problem. All deficiencies need to be applied to competency-based curricula.

  2. Running retraining to treat lower limb injuries: a mixed-methods study of current evidence synthesised with expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, C J; Bonanno, D R; Carr, J; Neal, B S; Malliaras, P; Franklyn-Miller, A; Menz, H B

    2016-05-01

    Running-related injuries are highly prevalent. Synthesise published evidence with international expert opinion on the use of running retraining when treating lower limb injuries. Mixed methods. A systematic review of clinical and biomechanical findings related to running retraining interventions were synthesised and combined with semistructured interviews with 16 international experts covering clinical reasoning related to the implementation of running retraining. Limited evidence supports the effectiveness of transition from rearfoot to forefoot or midfoot strike and increase step rate or altering proximal mechanics in individuals with anterior exertional lower leg pain; and visual and verbal feedback to reduce hip adduction in females with patellofemoral pain. Despite the paucity of clinical evidence, experts recommended running retraining for: iliotibial band syndrome; plantar fasciopathy (fasciitis); Achilles, patellar, proximal hamstring and gluteal tendinopathy; calf pain; and medial tibial stress syndrome. Tailoring approaches to each injury and individual was recommended to optimise outcomes. Substantial evidence exists for the immediate biomechanical effects of running retraining interventions (46 studies), including evaluation of step rate and strike pattern manipulation, strategies to alter proximal kinematics and cues to reduce impact loading variables. Our synthesis of published evidence related to clinical outcomes and biomechanical effects with expert opinion indicates running retraining warrants consideration in the treatment of lower limb injuries in clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. [Deontology of the medical expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raszeja, S

    1995-09-01

    The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

  4. Problems arising in connection with the commissioning of experts in conflict-oriented implementation of nuclear law. The legal status of expert opinions in administrative procedures under the Atomic Energy Act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiebig, T.H.

    1995-01-01

    Court decisions available so far do not primarily consider the problems linked to the commissioning of an expert and his mandate, as well as the legal status of the commissioning of an expert as an administrative act which might be legally contestable. Thus there are at present no court decisions that would create legal certainty in matters of the act of commissioning a nuclear expert opinion. The current legal situation is such that an independent order for commissioning of an expert opinion in compliance with section 19 III AtG (Atomic Energy Act), which in general is given in response to the refusal of the facility operator to do so, can be independently contested on the basis of section 44 a, sentence 2 VwGO (Rules of Administrative Courts). The current practice of conflict-oriented, or nuclear power phase-out-oriented, implementation of the nuclear law poses a threat to our constitutional state and to our democracy. The supply of energy as a common good is of essential importance and thus deserves fair and objective treatment free of emotions, including the matter of nuclear energy. In cases of nuclear licensing procedures meeting with impedimental treatment by a Land government favouring the nuclear power phase-out, this treatment however not fitting into the Land governments' overall political line, there is reason to call upon the Federal Government to take action for clarifying the situation. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Forensic medicine experts' opinion on medico-legal autopsies in hospital deaths: a questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Deepak Herald; Pant, Sadip; Menezes, Ritesh George

    2013-10-01

    Medico-legal autopsy is conducted routinely in some countries and selectively in others in hospital deaths. This study was conducted to evaluate the views of the forensic medicine experts regarding this matter. A questionnaire pro forma was sent to sixty-five forensic medicine experts practicing in different medical institutions all around India. Designations and experiences of the participants were noted by requests in the same questionnaire. Their specific experience in conducting medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths was also requested for. Responses were charted in frequency distribution tables and analyzed using SPSS, version 17.0. One-third of the participants felt that a medico-legal autopsy was necessary in all the hospital death cases as defined in the present study. Ten percent of the participants opined that a medico-legal autopsy was unnecessary in hospital deaths. The majority of the experts mentioned finding the cause of death, followed by finding the manner of death and collecting the evidentiary materials, as the reasons for medico-legal autopsy in hospital deaths. Twenty percent of the participants felt that internal findings at autopsy poorly matched with the case records. All the experts agreed that external autopsy findings matched with the hospital case records. Nearly two-third of the participants felt that it was difficult in some cases to interpret the autopsy findings without case records from the hospital where the deceased was treated. Our findings suggest that the exercise of carrying out medico-legal autopsy routinely in every hospital death as evident in the Indian framework is often unnecessary as per the experts' opinion. Autopsy findings in hospital deaths often correlate with hospital case records.

  6. Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Astiaso Garcia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical, hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into chemical energy by means of the electrolysis of water which does not produce any toxic or climate-relevant emission. This paper aims to pinpoint the potential uses of renewable hydrogen storage systems in Europe, analysing current and potential locations, regulatory framework, governments’ outlooks, economic issues, and available renewable energy amounts. The expert opinion survey, already used in many research articles on different topics including energy, has been selected as an effective method to produce realistic results. The obtained results highlight strategies and actions to optimize the storage of hydrogen produced by renewables to face varying electricity demand and generation-driven fluctuations reducing the negative effects of the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix of European Countries.

  7. Informing decision making in agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy: A Best–Worst Scaling survey of expert and farmer opinion in the sheep industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption

  8. [Adolescent arsonists--psychodynamics, family dynamics and attempt at framing a typology based on 40 expert opinions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klosinski, G; Bertsch, S L

    2001-02-01

    Psychiatric, psychological and medical data of 40 adolescent firesetters are obtained from a retrospective analysis of expert opinions which have been drawn up by the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Tübingen over a period of 16 years (1981-1997). This analysis mainly focusses on the patients' physical and psychosexual development, their social integration and competence and their family dynamics. It further concentrates on the psychic situation at the time of the offense, the reasons and motives given for firesetting (by the patient and by the expert) and specific psychological test results. According to the results three different characteristic groups can be found: 1st a group of offenders who have set fires to their parents' house, 2nd firesetters being member of the firebrigade, and 3rd an unspecific inhomogeneous group of firesetters.

  9. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  10. Medico-legal and legal-penal aspects of expert opinions and adjudication in cases of intoxications with intoxicating agents and ethanol-like intoxicants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Ćwiklińska

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The available legal regulations in Poland do not define the concentration thresholds enabling to differentiate between the states of “after-use” versus “under the influence” of a drug, as it is in the case of alcohol. The aim of the study was to analyse jurisdiction in cases regarding the evaluation of the effects of intoxicating agents and ethanol-like intoxicants and to identify ambiguities and gaps in the applicable regulations leading to problems in preparing expert opinions. Material and methods: The material included the opinions of experts in the field of toxicology and forensic medicine made by the Department of Forensic Medicine in Lublin in the years 2009–2011 and records obtained in the process of inquiry from the regional prosecutor’s offices and courts in 52 cases. Results : Amongst 52 cases in which the ordered toxicology examinations demonstrated the presence of intoxicating agents in drivers’ blood (tetrahydrocannabinols in 39 and amphetamine in 21 cases in 2 cases petty offence proceedings were instituted (Art. 87 of the Petty Offence Code although high concentrations of xenobiotics indicated the state of being “under the influence” of a narcotic drug (Art. 178a of the Penal Code. Three cases were discontinued despite expert opinions that the drivers were at least in the after-narcotic use state. In only 3 cases were witnesses asked to provide testimony about the circumstances of the driver’s conduct. Conclusions : The analysis has demonstrated that judicial bodies expect forensic expertise based exclusively on toxicological examination results; when expert findings are inconclusive, they only administer litigations opportunistically applying the principle of the presumption of innocence understood literally. Considering the above, threshold values of “use” and “influence” of the most commonly detected drugs should be urgently determined.

  11. Ustekinumab in the management of Crohn's disease: Expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armuzzi, Alessandro; Ardizzone, Sandro; Biancone, Livia; Castiglione, Fabiana; Danese, Silvio; Gionchetti, Paolo; Orlando, Ambrogio; Rizzello, Fernando; Scribano, Maria Lia; Vecchi, Maurizio; Daperno, Marco

    2018-03-11

    This expert-opinion paper reviews available evidence for the use of ustekinumab, a human interleukin 12/23 monoclonal antibody, in the treatment of Crohn's disease and discusses its potential role in the current treatment scenario for the condition. Ustekinumab appears to be associated with rapid and sustained clinical effect, as reported from the clinical research program, with additional support for potential mucosal healing. These characteristics are paralleled by a favorable safety profile, lack of immunogenicity and the presence of systemic anti-inflammatory activity. Importantly, ustekinumab requires only one single intravenous administration, while subsequent dosing is administered subcutaneously, with potential advantages for home-based therapy. Lastly, the dosage of ustekinumab is flexible. On the basis of the evidence, ustekinumab has a role in patients with primary failure or secondary loss of response to anti-tumor necrosis factor agents, as well as in those who have adverse events on front-line biologics or are reinitiating therapy after a treatment holiday. Current evidence suggests that ustekinumab may be particularly suitable in patients who present extra-intestinal manifestations of the disease or are at risk of infections. Ustekinumab may also be considered in the first-line setting, especially in frail patients, in young subjects or in those who have concomitant immune-mediated diseases. Copyright © 2018 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Right of residence under Article 20 TFEU of the Primary Carer of a Minor Union Citizen: Summary of an expert opinion on issues arising from the pending case of Chavez-Vilchez and others (C-133/15)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dziedzic, Lukasz; Davies, Gareth; De Lange, Janneke; Biersteker, Anouk; Navia-Rodriguez, Lorena

    2015-01-01

    This is an English language summary of an extensive Dutch expert opinion concerning a pending ECJ case of wide relevance - a follow up to Ruiz Zambrano and Dereci which explores some of the more complex and realistic scenarios which may arise. That expert opinion provides a legal analysis of the

  13. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  14. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  15. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables

  16. Expert opinion in the management of aqueous Deficient Dry Eye Disease (DED).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sy, Aileen; O'Brien, Kieran S; Liu, Margaret P; Cuddapah, Puja A; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M; Rose-Nussbaumer, Jennifer

    2015-10-13

    Dry eye disease (DED) affects millions of people worldwide. There are a variety of new treatments beyond traditional therapies such as preservative free artificial tears. Here, we conduct a survey to identify the most common treatments used among specialists and assess their interest in newer therapies. An international survey was distributed to dry eye researchers and expert practitioners via an internet survey. The survey data collected were analyzed with descriptive statistics. One hundred and fifteen respondents completed the survey; of these, 66 % were cornea specialists. The most commonly prescribed topical treatments included cyclosporine A (CSA) 0.05 % (71/104, 68 %), fluorometholone (FML) 0.1 % (59/99, 60 %), loteprednol etabonate 0.5 % (50/99, 51 %), and autologous serum eye drops (ASD; 48/97, 49 %). The most commonly prescribed non-topical medications included essential fatty acid supplements (72/104, 69 %), low-dose doxycycline (oral; 61/100, 61 %), and flaxseed supplements (32/96, 33 %) as well as punctal plugs (76/102, 75 %). Respondents reported treatment with topical corticosteroids for 2 to 8 weeks (46/86, 53 %), followed by less than 2 weeks (24/86, 28 %) and with topical CSA between 2 to 8 weeks (45/85, 53 %) followed by 2 to 6 months (24/85, 28 %). The top three signs and symptoms reported to indicate treatment response were, in order, fluorescein staining of the cornea, reduction in foreign body sensation, and reduction in burning sensation. This survey offers insight into current expert opinion in the treatment of DED. The results of this survey are hypothesis generating and will aid in the design of future clinical studies.

  17. Dramatically Polarized Opinion on the Role of Brachytherapy Boost in Management of High-risk Prostate Cancer: A Survey of North American Genitourinary Expert Radiation Oncologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Shearwood; Sandler, Kiri A; Degnin, Catherine; Chen, Yiyi; Mitin, Timur

    2018-06-01

    Three randomized clinical trials have established brachytherapy (BT) boost in combination with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) as superior to definitive EBRT and ADT alone in terms of biochemical control (but not overall survival) at the expense of increased toxicity in men with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa). The current view regarding these 2 treatment algorithms among North American genitourinary (GU) experts is not known. A survey was distributed to 88 practicing North American GU physicians serving on decision-making committees of cooperative group research organizations. Questions pertained to opinions regarding BT as monotherapy for low-risk PCa and BT boost for HR PCa. Responders were asked to self-identify as BT experts versus non-experts. Treatment recommendations were correlated with practice patterns using the Fisher exact test. Forty-two radiation oncologists completed the survey, of whom 23 (55%) recommend EBRT and ADT alone and 19 (45%) recommend addition of BT boost. Twenty-five participants (60%) identified themselves as BT experts. Nearly 90% of those recommending BT boost were BT experts versus approximately 10% of non-BT experts (P < .001). Responders who recommended BT monotherapy as first-choice treatment for low-risk PCa were more likely to recommend BT boost for HR PCa (P < .0001). There is a dramatic polarization in opinions regarding incorporation of BT boost into EBRT + ADT therapy for patients with HR PCa among North American GU radiation oncology experts, who serve on decision-making committees and influence the national treatment guidelines and future clinical trials. Those who identify themselves as BT experts are significantly more likely to recommend BT boost. These findings are likely to influence the national guidelines and implementation of BT boost in current and future North American PCa clinical studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson-Holt, Claire D; Watts, Kevin; Bellamy, Chloe C; Nevin, Owen T; Ramsey, Andrew D

    2014-01-01

    Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

  19. Defining landscape resistance values in least-cost connectivity models for the invasive grey squirrel: a comparison of approaches using expert-opinion and habitat suitability modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire D Stevenson-Holt

    Full Text Available Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a least-cost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a least-cost approach to mapping ecological networks.

  20. The rehabilitation of children and adolescents with severe or medically complicated obesity: an ISPED expert opinion document.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grugni, Graziano; Licenziati, Maria Rosaria; Valerio, Giuliana; Crinò, Antonino; Maffeis, Claudio; Tanas, Rita; Morino, Giuseppe Stefano

    2017-03-01

    Severe/medically complicated obesity in childhood, and particularly in adolescence, is a real disability that requires an intensive and continuous approach which should follow the procedures and schedule of rehabilitation medicine. Given the lack of a specific document focusing on children and adolescents, the Childhood Obesity Study Group set out to explore the available evidence for the treatment of severe or medically complicated obesity and to set standards tailored to the specific context of the Italian Health Service. Through a series of meetings and electronic communications, the writing committee (selected from members of the Study Group) selected the key issues, explored the literature and produced a draft document which was submitted to the other experts until the final synthesis was approved by the group. In brief, the following issues were involved: (1) definition and epidemiology; (2) identification of common goals designed to regain functional competence and limit the progression of metabolic and psychological complications; (3) a multi-professional team approach; (4) the care setting. This paper is an expert opinion document on the rehabilitation of severe and medically complicated obesity in children and adolescents produced by experts belonging to the Childhood Obesity Study Group of the Italian Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology (ISPED).

  1. Building legitimacy by criticising the pharmaceutical industry: a qualitative study among prescribers and local opinion leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittet, Anne-Laure; Saraga, Michael; Stiefel, Friedrich

    2015-01-01

    The literature has described opinion leaders not only as marketing tools of the pharmaceutical industry, but also as educators promoting good clinical practice. This qualitative study addresses the distinction between the opinion-leader-as-marketing-tool and the opinion-leader-as-educator, as it is revealed in the discourses of physicians and experts, focusing on the prescription of antidepressants. We explore the relational dynamic between physicians, opinion leaders and the pharmaceutical industry in an area of French-speaking Switzerland. Qualitative content analysis of 24 semistructured interviews with physicians and local experts in psychopharmacology, complemented by direct observation of educational events led by the experts, which were all sponsored by various pharmaceutical companies. Both physicians and experts were critical of the pharmaceutical industry and its use of opinion leaders. Local experts, in contrast, were perceived by the physicians as critical of the industry and, therefore, as a legitimate source of information. Local experts did not consider themselves opinion leaders and argued that they remained intellectually independent from the industry. Field observations confirmed that local experts criticised the industry at continuing medical education events. Local experts were vocal critics of the industry, which nevertheless sponsor their continuing education. This critical attitude enhanced their credibility in the eyes of the prescribing physicians. We discuss how the experts, despite their critical attitude, might still be beneficial to the industry's interests.

  2. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blome, Christine

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

  3. Accepted standards on how to give a Medical Research Presentation: a systematic review of expert opinion papers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Christine; Sondermann, Hanno; Augustin, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Background: This systematic review aimed to extract recommendations from expert opinion articles on how to give a medical research presentation on a scientific conference and to determine whether the experts agree on what makes an effective or poor presentation. Methods: Presentation-related terms were searched within article titles listed in PubMed, restricting the search to English-language articles published from January 1975 to July 2015. Recommendations were extracted from the articles, grouped by content, and analyzed for frequency. Ninety-one articles were included. Among 679 different recommendations, 29 were given in more than 20% of articles each. The five most frequent recommendations were to keep slides simple, adjust the talk to the audience, rehearse, not read the talk from slides or a manuscript, and make eye contact. Results: No article gave advice that was the complete opposite of the 29 most frequent recommendations with the exception of whether a light or dark background should be used for slides. Conclusions: Researchers should comply with these widely accepted standards to be perceived as effective presenters.

  4. Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

  5. Expert opinion on climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

  6. Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

    2014-12-01

    Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

  7. An expert system for uranium exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

    1989-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

  8. Heterodoxy, iconoclasm and spuriousness: the limits of novel expert evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freckelton, Ian

    2007-12-01

    A difficult issue arises for courts' decision-making at common law and under statutory evidentiary regimes when expert opinions are significantly unorthodox, iconoclastic or methodologically flawed. This editorial analyses the relevant evidentiary principles and the Australian jurisprudence on the subject, giving particular attention to the decisions of the South Australian Supreme Court in R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 143 and R v Parenzee [2007] SASC 316 in which expert opinions about the existence, identifiability and transmissibility of HIV and its relationship to AIDS adduced on behalf of the defence in a criminal trial were found to be seriously wanting. A variety of factors indicative of low probative value in expert opinions are distilled.

  9. Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

    2013-05-01

    What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

  10. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Kuster

    Full Text Available Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively. Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest to 5 (highest. Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT, Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR. Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF, Enzootic Pneumonia (EP, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS, as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers

  11. Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, Karin; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Jemmi, Thomas; Schüpbach-Regula, Gertraud; Magouras, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and

  12. Comparison of expert and nonexpert swimmers' opinions about the value, potency, and activity of four standard swimming strokes and underwater undulatory swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collard, L; Oboeuf, A

    2009-04-01

    Underwater undulatory swimming (UUS) is often perceived to be a nonessential aspect of aquatic propulsion. Given their solid theoretical and practical training in swimming, physical education students should be capable of judging the true value of the "fifth stroke," since it appears to be the most efficient technique in high level, competitive swimming. To compare opinions and connotations associated with the stroke and the four official strokes (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, and crawl), 198 students (32 of whom were expert swimmers; M age = 20.6 yr., SD = 1.2), were surveyed using the semantic differential of Osgood, Suci, and Tannenbaum. Although answers of expert and nonexpert swimmers differed significantly (p stroke was less attractive, less powerful, and less rapid than the four surface strokes (d = 2.88 for the expert swimmers). Putting one arm in front of the other and repeating the sequence still remains the most solidly held representation of "the right way" to swim. However, the high observed standard deviations for the underwater undulatory stimulus (SD > or = 1.1 with SD max = 3 for the expert swimmers) attests to the view being less strongly held by swimming specialists.

  13. Expert panel on additional cross subsidisation. Considering arguments and providing expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faber, J.; Nelissen, D.; Lowe, S.; Mason, A.

    2007-10-01

    In the period end 2005 till September 2006 MVA London in cooperation with SEO Amsterdam was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Transport to perform an analysis of the economic and competition effects of the different proposals from the European Commission to include aviation in the European Emission Trading System (ETS). Roughly at the same time CE Delft was commissioned to study the overall impacts of this inclusion for the European Commission. Both studies considered the possibility that inclusion of aviation in the ETS could lead to the distortion of competition between airlines through cross-subsidisation. The studies concluded differently on additional possibilities for cross-subsidisation. As a result, both parties have different views on the possible distortion of the competitive market on routes where EU-based carriers compete directly with carriers based outside the EU. CE Delft concluded that 'none of the policy options considered in this study will significantly damage the competitive position of EU airlines relative to non-EU airlines'. In contrast, MVA and SEO (2006) concluded that 'effective cross-subsidisation by non-EU carriers in the Departing EU scope of the ETS appears to be more probable than cross-subsidisation by EU network carriers in the Intra-EU scope of the ETS'. In July 2007, the Dutch Ministry of Transport, DGTL commissioned CE Delft, MVA and SEO to study the causes for their different opinions and to see whether a further investigation could shed more light on the likelihood of additional cross-subsidisation. Formally, the aim of the work currently carried out is: (1) To determine whether it is possible to assess the impacts on the competitive market between EU based carriers and non-EU based carriers based on sound economic reasoning and analysis of empirical data; and, if so, (2) to determine whether the inclusion of aviation in ETS as proposed by the European Commission will offer non-EU airlines the opportunity to increase their

  14. Ethical Issues in Expert Opinions and Testimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weed, Roger O.

    2000-01-01

    This article provides an overview of ethical issues in private for-profit practice, with particular focus on expert testimony, using examples from a sample of claims filed with the National Association of Rehabilitation Professionals in the Private Sector and malpractice insurance companies. Complaints most frequently involve issues related to…

  15. Veterinary Expert Opinion on Potential Drivers and Opportunities for Changing Antimicrobial Usage Practices in Livestock in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís P. Carmo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Reducing antimicrobial use (AMU in livestock is requested by Public Health authorities. Ideally, this should be achieved without jeopardizing production output or animal health and welfare. Thus, efficient measures must be identified and developed to target drivers of AMU. Veterinarians play a central role in the identification and implementation of such efficient interventions. Sixty-seven veterinarians with expertise in livestock production in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland participated in an expert opinion study aimed at investigating experiences and opinions of veterinarians about the driving forces and practices related to AMU in the main livestock sectors (broiler, dairy cattle, fattening/veal calf, and pig industry of the aforementioned countries. Opinions on potential factors influencing the choice of antimicrobials and opportunities to reduce AMU were collected. Antibiograms are seldom used, mainly due to the time lag between testing and obtaining the results. The perceived percentage of treatment failures varied between countries and livestock sectors; however, little changes were reported over time (2005−2015. The animal health problems of each livestock sector most frequently leading to AMU did not vary substantially between countries. Mandatory official interventions (i.e., binding measures applied by national or international authorities were highlighted as having the biggest impact on AMU. There was a variation in the experts’ opinion regarding feasibility and impact of interventions both between countries and livestock sectors. Nevertheless, improved biosecurity and education of veterinarians frequently received high scores. Most veterinarians believed that AMU can be reduced. The median potential reduction estimates varied from 1% in Swiss broilers to 50% in Portuguese broilers and veal/fattening calves in all countries. We hypothesize that the differences in views could be related to disease epidemiology, animal

  16. Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler D. Eddy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation, compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

  17. Historical baselines of coral cover on tropical reefs as estimated by expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddy, Tyler D; Cheung, William W L; Bruno, John F

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are important habitats that represent global marine biodiversity hotspots and provide important benefits to people in many tropical regions. However, coral reefs are becoming increasingly threatened by climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. Historical baselines of coral cover are important to understand how much coral cover has been lost, e.g., to avoid the 'shifting baseline syndrome'. There are few quantitative observations of coral reef cover prior to the industrial revolution, and therefore baselines of coral reef cover are difficult to estimate. Here, we use expert and ocean-user opinion surveys to estimate baselines of global coral reef cover. The overall mean estimated baseline coral cover was 59% (±19% standard deviation), compared to an average of 58% (±18% standard deviation) estimated by professional scientists. We did not find evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome, whereby respondents who first observed coral reefs more recently report lower estimates of baseline coral cover. These estimates of historical coral reef baseline cover are important for scientists, policy makers, and managers to understand the extent to which coral reefs have become depleted and to set appropriate recovery targets.

  18. A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

    2011-01-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

  19. Quantification of informed opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmuson, D.M.

    1985-01-01

    The objective of this session, Quantification of Informed Opinion, is to provide the statistician with a better understanding of this important area. The NRC uses informed opinion, sometimes called engineering judgment or subjective judgment, in many areas. Sometimes informed opinion is the only source of information that exists, especially in phenomenological areas, such as steam explosions, where experiments are costly and phenomena are very difficult to measure. There are many degrees of informed opinion. These vary from the weatherman who makes predictions concerning relatively high probability events with a large data base to the phenomenological expert who must use his intuition tempered with basic knowledge and little or no measured data to predict the behavior of events with a low probability of occurrence. The first paper in this session provides the reader with an overview of the subject area. The second paper provides some aspects that must be considered in the collection of informed opinion to improve the quality of the information. The final paper contains an example of the use of informed opinion in the area of seismic hazard characterization. These papers should be useful to researchers and statisticians who need to collect and use informed opinion in their work

  20. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

  1. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

  2. Perception of risks by opinion leaders 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The authors report a survey made just after the Fukushima accident on a panel of opinion leaders (belonging to political, economical or media sector) in order to compare their perception of risks with that of the public. The questions addressed the perception of risks, the role of scientific experts, the usefulness and breaks on the diffusion of expertise results, the perception of pluralist bodies, and the Fukushima accident. The answers are analysed and discussed with respect to fifteen hazardous situations, to their opinion of expertise, and to their opinion on safety audit and information

  3. Precision in Setting Cancer Prevention Priorities: Synthesis of Data, Literature, and Expert Opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girschik, Jennifer; Miller, Laura Jean; Addiscott, Tony; Daube, Mike; Katris, Paul; Ransom, David; Slevin, Terry; Threlfall, Tim; Weeramanthri, Tarun Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Cancer will continue to be a leading cause of ill health and death unless we can capitalize on the potential for 30-40% of these cancers to be prevented. In this light, cancer prevention represents an enormous opportunity for public health, potentially saving much of the pain, anguish, and cost associated with treating cancer. However, there is a challenge for governments, and the wider community, in prioritizing cancer prevention activities, especially given increasing financial constraints. This paper describes a method for identifying cancer prevention priorities. This method synthesizes detailed cancer statistics, expert opinion, and the published literature for the priority setting process. The process contains four steps: assessing the impact of cancer types; identifying cancers with the greatest impact; considering opportunities for prevention; and combining information on impact and preventability. The strength of our approach is that it is straightforward, transparent and reproducible for other settings. Applying this method in Western Australia produced a priority list of seven adult cancers which were identified as having not only the biggest impact on the community but also the best opportunities for prevention. Work conducted in an additional project phase went on to present data on these priority cancers to a public consultation and develop an agenda for action in cancer prevention.

  4. From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelson, Danuta

    2012-12-01

    In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

  5. 29 CFR 18.701 - Opinion testimony by lay witnesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. 18.701 Section 18.701 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE HEARINGS... Opinion testimony by lay witnesses. If the witness is not testifying as an expert, the witness' testimony...

  6. Environment and health. Realistic risk assessment. Special expert opinion; Umwelt und Gesundheit. Risiken richtig einschaetzen. Sondergutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-01

    In this special expert opinion, the Environmental Council discusses the problem of how to assess the risk of environment-induced health hazards. In many cases, there is a discrepancy between scientific risk assessment and subjective risk perception of the exposed population in this context. The Environmental Council suggests that communication between all parties concerned should be improved by target-finding models and also proposes an integrative risk assessment procedure. It is particularly important to identify and characterize vulnerable groups by scientific methods. [German] In seinem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Gesundheit - Risiken richtig einschaetzen greift der Umweltrat die Problematik von Risikoabschaetzungen umweltbedingter Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen auf. In diesem Zusammenhang ist vielfach eine Diskrepanz zwischen wissenschaftlicher Risikoabschaetzung und der subjektiven Risikowahrnehmung seitens der Betroffenen festzustellen. Der Umweltrat verweist zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation zwischen den beteiligten Gruppen auf entsprechende Modelle zur Zielfindung und schlaegt einen integrativen Ansatz zur Risikobewertung vor. Von besonderer Bedeutung bei der Bewertung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen ist die wissenschaftlich begruendete Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von empfindlichen Gruppen (vulnerablen Gruppen). (orig.)

  7. Assimilation of public opinions in nuclear decision-making using risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, K.Y.; Yang, J.W.; Kang, C.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method of assimilating public opinions in the decision-making process has been developed in this study. The proposed method will resolve the major shortcomings of existing decision-making models, which are deficient in, or missing public participation during the process. In the nuclear-related decision-making process, a particular concern of the public is nuclear safety, which is numerically characterized by risk. In reality, it is the risk that each individual perceives that is very important. Hence, the public perception of risk has been employed as a key decision-making element in representing public opinions. To quantify the public perception of risk, the psychometric model is used. Psychological risk dimensions are first assessed using factor analysis and a set of factors is identified for optimized computation. Expert opinions formulated by a group of selected professionals and experts are then aggregated with the public opinions. To gather public and expert opinions, separate polls were conducted in this study. In the aggregation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute utility analysis (MAUA) were employed, and for uncertainty analysis, a fuzzy set based approach was adopted. This method has been applied to analyze six options for spent fuel management in Korea for a case study. As expected, the results of the case study show that public risk perception is an important element in nuclear-related decision-making processes

  8. Expert Opinions on Nutrition Issues in Clinical Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Carole A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    A survey of 79 experts in dental nutrition sought consensus on the appropriate scope of nutrition in clinical dentistry. Results support the need for greater attention to nutrition issues in dental schools and better models for nutrition interventions in dental practice. (Author/MSE)

  9. Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

    2017-05-06

    This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70-80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70-80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the 'already dispensed here' pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an 'action taken' documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Hip arthroscopy protocol: expert opinions on post-operative weight bearing and return to sports guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Ehud; Sharfman, Zachary T; Paret, Matan; Amar, Eyal; Drexler, Michael; Bonin, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to survey the weight-bearing limitation practices and delay for returning to running and impact sports of high volume hip arthroscopy orthopedic surgeons. The study was designed in the form of expert survey questionnaire. Evidence-based data are scares regarding hip arthroscopy post-operative weight-bearing protocols. An international cross-sectional anonymous Internet survey of 26 high-volume hip arthroscopy specialized surgeons was conducted to report their weight-bearing limitations and rehabilitation protocols after various arthroscopic hip procedures. The International Society of Hip Arthroscopy invited this study. The results were examined in the context of supporting literature to inform the studies suggestions. Four surgeons always allow immediate weight bearing and five never offer immediate weight bearing. Seventeen surgeons provide weight bearing depending on the procedures performed: 17 surgeons allowed immediate weight bearing after labral resection, 10 after labral repair and 8 after labral reconstruction. Sixteen surgeons allow immediate weight bearing after psoas tenotomy. Twenty-one respondents restrict weight bearing after microfracture procedures for 3-8 weeks post-operatively. Return to running and impact sports were shorter for labral procedures and bony procedures and longer for cartilaginous and capsular procedures. Marked variability exists in the post-operative weight-bearing practices of hip arthroscopy surgeons. This study suggests that most surgeons allow immediate weight bearing as tolerated after labral resection, acetabular osteoplasty, chondroplasty and psoas tenotomy. For cartilage defect procedures, 6 weeks or more non-weight bearing is suggested depending on the area of the defect and lateral central edge angle. Delayed return to sports activities is suggested after microfracture procedures. The level of evidence was Level V expert opinions.

  11. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  12. The effect of popular exemplars and expert account base-rate information on perceived public opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lefevere, J.; Walgrave, S.; de Swert, K.

    2012-01-01

    How people perceive public opinion is important because it affects their willingness to express themselves. This paper investigates whether two different portrayals of public opinion in the TV news affect people’s perception of public opinion. We use an experimental design in which roughly one

  13. Scratching the surface of tomorrow's diagnostics: the Editor-in-Chief's opinion at the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorincz, Attila; Raison, Claire

    2015-01-01

    Interview with Attila Lorincz by Claire Raison (Commissioning Editor) To mark the beginning of the 15th year of Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, the journal's Editor-in-Chief shares his expert knowledge on translational diagnostics, his opinion on recent controversies and his predictions for molecular diagnostics in 2015 and beyond. Attila Lorincz received his doctorate from Trinity College, Dublin, Republic of Ireland, and went on to become a research fellow at the University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. During Professor Lorincz's research on human papillomavirus (HPV), he found several important and novel carcinogenic HPV types and pioneered the use of HPV DNA testing for clinical diagnostics. In 1988, Professor Lorincz's team produced the first HPV test to be FDA-approved for patients and in 2003, for general population cervical precancer screening. Now Professor of Molecular Epidemiology at the Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London, UK, he and his team are furthering translational research into DNA methylation assays for cancer risk prediction.

  14. [Medical data security in medico-legal opinioning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susło, Robert; Swiatek, Barbara

    2005-01-01

    Medical data security can be approached in medico-legal opinioning in three main situations: security of medical data, on which the opinion should be based, opinioning itself and whether the medical data security was properly ensured and ensuring medical data security during medico-legal opinion giving. The importance of medical data security, during collecting, processing and storing, as well in medical as in legal institutions, is of major importance for the possibility of providing a proper medico-legal opinion. Theoretically speeking, it is possible to give a proper medico-legal opinion using incorrect data, but the possibility is low. When the expert is given improper, unreadable, incomplete or even bogus in part or in the whole medical data it is extremely possible, that he fails in giving his opinion. The term "medical data" was defined and subsequently there was a brief review of medical data storing methods made and specific threats bound with them, based on modern literature. The authors also pointed out possible methods of preventing the threats. They listed Polish as well as international regulations and laws concerning the problem, accenting the importance of preserving medical data for the purposes of medico-legal opinioning.

  15. Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

    2017-06-01

    There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

  16. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts

  17. [Professionalization of Legal Dental Experts in Germany: Results of Studies on Structured Focus Groups].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, H U; Walther, W; Dick, M

    2018-04-01

    Legal expert opinions are a crucial instrument of professional self-control in medicine. To give impulses for further development, focus groups were initiated to reflect upon the perspective of legal dental experts. 5 focus group discussions on the topic "Professionalization of legal dental experts" were conducted. A total of 32 experienced legal dental experts participated in the discussions. The results were evaluated by qualitative content analysis. A catalogue of 68 ideas was generated for improvement and divided into 15 categories. Among these were periodic quality circles, interprofessional exchange, supervision of novices and periodic feedback for legal dental experts and dentists. Self-reflection can be included as an instrument for quality improvement of legal dental expert opinions. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  18. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo , but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

  19. Evidence - based pharmacological treatment of atopic dermatitis: An expert opinion and new expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold P Oranje

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Atopic dermatitis (AD is one of the most common skin diseases with a complex multifactorial background. The clinical presentation, the aggravating factors and the complications vary according to the age of the patients. Most cases, approximately 60-80%, present for the 1 st time before the age of 12 months. Adult-onset AD has been observed as a special variant. Pruritus is the worst sign of AD, which also often indicates an exacerbation and is considered to be the most annoying symptom of AD. Treatment is preferably started based on the severity of AD. In only 10% of the cases, AD is so severe that systemic treatment is necessary. Systemic treatment including topical wet-wrap treatment is indicated in the worst and recalcitrant cases of AD. Systemic treatment of AD is discussed with regards to the evidence-based efficacy and safety aspects. I prefer wet-wraps as a crisis intervention in severe childhood cases, whereas UV and systemic treatments are the choices in patients older than 10 years. Probiotics are not useful in the treatment. If they have any effect at all it may only be in food-allergic children with AD. Finally, anti-histamines are not effective against pruritus in AD. They are only effective against urticarial flares and in cases with food-allergy. This article consists of an expert opinion on evidence-based pharmacological treatment of AD, but it is not a systemic review.

  20. Factors influencing continuing professional development : A Delphi study among nursing experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, G.B.; Poell, R.F.; van Wijk, K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this paper is to present an inventory of expert opinions on the factors that influence the participation of registered nurses in continuing professional development (CPD) activities. Design/methodology/approach A Delphi study was conducted among 38 Dutch experts (nursing

  1. Effects of CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings 2008. Expert opinion; Effekte des CO{sub 2}-Gebaeudesanierungsprogramms 2008. Gutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausnitzer, Klaus-Dieter; Gabriel, Juergen; Eilmes, Sabine [Bremer Energie-Institut, Bremen (Germany); Diefenbach, Nikolaus; Loga, Tobias [Institut Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Wosniok, Werner [Bremen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Statistik

    2008-07-01

    The climate protection, the securing of the power supply as well as the enabling of payable energy costs belong to the central tasks to the policy. In the year 2006, the working group consisting of the Bremen Energie Institute (Bremen, Federal Republic of Energy), Institute Wohnen und Umwelt GmbH (Darmstadt, Federal Republic of Germany) and the Institute for Statistics of the University of Bremen (Bremen, Federal Republic of Germany) was ordered to develop a model for the estimation of the positive effects of the CO{sub 2} sanitation program for buildings according to the reduction of CO{sub 2}, conservation of final energy, employment, progress in modernization and saving of heating cost. In the expert opinion under consideration, the influences are stated for the case of loan and grant for the year 2008.

  2. Concept of expert system for modal split in transportation planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popović Maja M.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a concept of expert system based on the survey of experts' opinions and their experience concerning relations in modal split, on the basis of parameters of transport system demand and transport supply, defined through PT travel time and city size, i.e. mean trip length. This expert system could be of use both to experts and less experienced planners who could apply the knowledge contained in this expert system for further improvement, on operational as well as on strategic level.

  3. The use of expert opinion for estimation of component unavailability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan Cizelj, R.; Kljenak, I.

    1998-01-01

    When evaluating system safety with Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA), data of component reliability are necessary input data. Despite a significant effort which has been devoted to the collection and processing of reliability data during the last ten years, the quality of data available is still not satisfactory. In the present paper, a method for a suitable failure rate estimation with the help of expert judgement of maintenance people is proposed. Expert judgement about component state is combined with information gathered from a classical reliability database. With the proposed method, generic data are adapted to specific components with combination of probability and fuzzy logic theory.(author)

  4. MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Funk

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

  5. In search of an integral conceptual definition of frailty: opinions of experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobbens, Robbert J J; Luijkx, Katrien G; Wijnen-Sponselee, Maria Th; Schols, Jos M G A

    2010-06-01

    There are many different conceptual definitions of frailty in circulation. Most of these definitions focus mainly on physical problems affecting older people. Only a few also draw attention to other domains of human functioning such as the psychological domain. The authors of this article fear that this could lead to fragmentation of care for frail older people. The aim is to develop an integral conceptual definition of frailty that starts from the premise of a holistic view of the person. To achieve this, a literature search was carried out. Thereafter a group of experts (N=20) were consulted, both verbally during 2 expert meetings and via a written questionnaire. These experts were asked which existing conceptual definition of frailty places most stress on the integral functioning of older people. The experts expressed a clear preference for one of the conceptual definitions. The result of the literature search and the consultation with the experts led to a new integral conceptual definition of frailty. The conceptual definition is intended to offer a framework for an operational definition of frailty for identifying frail older people. Copyright 2010 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Zaleskiewicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians. However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this

  7. Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2017-09-01

    The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo, E-mail: thiagoreis@usp.b, E-mail: barroso@ipen.b, E-mail: kimakuma@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

  9. Nuclear expert web mining system: monitoring and analysis of nuclear acceptance by information retrieval and opinion extraction on the Internet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Imakuma, Kengo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a research initiative that aims to collect nuclear related information and to analyze opinionated texts by mining the hypertextual data environment and social networks web sites on the Internet. Different from previous approaches that employed traditional statistical techniques, it is being proposed a novel Web Mining approach, built using the concept of Expert Systems, for massive and autonomous data collection and analysis. The initial step has been accomplished, resulting in a framework design that is able to gradually encompass a set of evolving techniques, methods, and theories in such a way that this work will build a platform upon which new researches can be performed more easily by just substituting modules or plugging in new ones. Upon completion it is expected that this research will contribute to the understanding of the population views on nuclear technology and its acceptance. (author)

  10. Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    by aggregating 25 primarily animal-based measurements based on 38 experts opinion on inter-measurement and inter-stage weights. AWIs were calculated on animal level as the weighted sums of prevalence of the measurements, and were calculated for each of the six stages: pick-up pen, loading, transport, unloading......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage......, this work has suggested a potential model for the aggregation of animal welfare measurements into animal welfare indexes for slaughter pigs on the day of slaughter. Further validation may allow simple comparison of the level of welfare between lorries, days, abattoirs etc. and may be used for future...

  11. Defining Sustainable Universities Following Public Opinion Formation Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaptcioglu Celikdemir, Deniz; Gunay, Gonca; Katrinli, Alev; Penbek Alpbaz, Sebnem

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to define the sustainable university in Turkey, by considering perspectives of various stakeholders such as experts, intellectual, public, political parties and media using public opinion formation analysis. The paper aims to re-define the "sustainable university" with all dimensions including…

  12. Expert Opinion on Three Phage Therapy Related Topics: Bacterial Phage Resistance, Phage Training and Prophages in Bacterial Production Strains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Rohde

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Phage therapy is increasingly put forward as a “new” potential tool in the fight against antibiotic resistant infections. During the “Centennial Celebration of Bacteriophage Research” conference in Tbilisi, Georgia on 26–29 June 2017, an international group of phage researchers committed to elaborate an expert opinion on three contentious phage therapy related issues that are hampering clinical progress in the field of phage therapy. This paper explores and discusses bacterial phage resistance, phage training and the presence of prophages in bacterial production strains while reviewing relevant research findings and experiences. Our purpose is to inform phage therapy stakeholders such as policy makers, officials of the competent authorities for medicines, phage researchers and phage producers, and members of the pharmaceutical industry. This brief also points out potential avenues for future phage therapy research and development as it specifically addresses those overarching questions that currently call for attention whenever phages go into purification processes for application.

  13. Evaluation of food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic Games: the opinion of sports nutrition experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelly, Fiona; Meyer, Nanna L; Pearce, Jeni; Burkhart, Sarah J; Burke, Louise M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the food provision and nutrition support at the London 2012 Olympic (OG) and Paralympic Games (PG) from the perspective of sports nutrition experts attending the event. Participants (n = 15) were asked to complete an online survey and rate on a Likert scale menu qualities, food safety, sustainability practices, nutrition labeling, and provision for cultural needs, dietary regimes and specific situations. Open-ended responses were incorporated to explore expert opinion and areas for improvement. Participants rated their overall experience of the food provision as 7.6 out of 10 (range 5 to 10), with the majority (n = 11) rating it greater than 7. The variety, accessibility, presentation, temperature, and freshness of menu items rated as average to good. A below average rating was received for recovery food and beverages, provision of food for traveling to other venues, taking suitable snacks out of the dining hall and provision of food at other venues. However, the variety and accessibility of choices for Ramadan, and provision of post-competition food were rated highly. A number of comments were received about the lack of gluten free and lower energy/fat items. The inclusion of allergens on nutrition labeling was considered more important than nutrient content. While dietetic review of the menu in advance of the OG and PG is clearly a valuable process that has resulted in improvements in the food supply, there are still areas that need to be addressed that are currently not implemented during the event.

  14. Mental illness and legal fitness (competence) to stand trial in New York State: expert opinion and criminal defendants' psychiatric symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eugene; Rosner, Richard; Harmon, Ronnie

    2014-07-01

    Fitness to Stand Trial is a critical concept in the adjudication of justice-involved persons. A retrospective study was conducted to examine criminal defendants' specific psychiatric symptoms and those symptoms' associations with expert opinions on Competence to Stand Trial. One hundred charts were reviewed: 50 Cases (opined as Not Fit) were compared against 50 Controls (opined as Fit) with respect to ratings on the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). A significance level of 0.001 was selected a priori. Statistically significant differences were found in seven of the eighteen BPRS symptom constructs (with the highest differences in Conceptual Disorganization and Unusual Thought Content) and two of the four BPRS higher-order syndrome factors (Thinking Disorder and Hostile-Suspiciousness). Consistent with previous reports, psychotic symptoms are found in this study to be inversely associated with Fitness. Validity, reliability, and limitations of this study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed herein. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  15. Survey of Opinions on the Primacy of "g" and Social Consequences of Ability Testing: A Comparison of Expert and Non-Expert Views

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Charlie L.; Charles, Jennifer E.

    2008-01-01

    The current study examines the views of experts in the science of mental abilities about the primacy and uniqueness of "g" and the social implications of ability testing, and compares their responses to the views of a group of non-expert psychologists. Results indicate expert consensus that "g" is an important, non-trivial determinant (or at least…

  16. Adaptation and validation of the REGEN expert system for the Central Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lance A. Vickers; Thomas R. Fox; David L. Loftis; David A. Boucugnani

    2011-01-01

    REGEN is an expert system that predicts future species composition at the onset of stem exclusion using preharvest stand conditions. To extend coverage into hardwood stands of the Central Appalachians, we developed REGEN knowledge bases for four site qualities (xeric, subxeric, submesic, mesic) based on relevant literature and expert opinion. Data were collected from...

  17. [Giving medico-legal opinions in cases with suspicion of medical mistake.part 1. between medicine and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Wilk, Mateusz

    2017-01-01

    Creating medico-legal opinion is a sophisticated investigative, analytical, decision-making and creative process. Forensic medicine specialist in cooperation with clinical medicine consultants, on the basis of evidence analysis, which was gathered during procedures and contained in the acts has to create an objective and essential opinion. This opinion is a vital, very important and irreplaceable proof in every case. Judicial body consults with forensic medicine specialist or specialists if there are circumstances for settlement of which there is a need of classified informations - art. 193 of Penalty Code. Forensic medicine specialists face many difficulties which may have effect on quality, positiveness of opinion, compliance with the deadline, increasing expectancy of judicial body or sides. It is very difficult to find clinical specialists which except their clinical knowledge have basic knowledge about law, the role and duties of an court expert. In this article we discuss creating-opinion problems, role and position of court expert in confrontation with expectations of judicial body and the Justice with particular emphasis on medical mistakes and assessment of medical proceedings. We show the complexity of creating of medical opinions, especially these institutional.

  18. Radioecological experts' opinions on waste water of Esensham nuclear power plant. Final report of a part of the project: Pollution at the place of work and in the Lower Weser industrialized region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bliefert, M.; Marks, R.; Meier, A.; Wallenschus, M.

    1978-01-01

    In December 1977, there was a public hearing by the Oldenburg administrative court where, among others, evidence was heard on whether the experts' opinions on the discharge of liquid radioactive waste into the river Weser, for which licence has already been granted, contain some major errors so that the licences already granted would have to be revoked. This part of the long and tedious administrative lawsuit is reported. (orig.) [de

  19. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  20. Opinions and statements of the experts who studied the framework conditions of abandonment of nuclear power - presented by the OeTV Executive Board (Public Services and Transport Workers' Union)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-10-01

    This second volume contains five annexes to the first volume, presenting in Annex 1 data, facts, tables and comments on the following topics: Electricity demand and supplies; possibilities of reducing electricity demand; alternative energy sources for electricity generation to replace the nuclear energy source; electricity imports; the costs arising from abandonment of nuclear power; environmental burdens and hazards of a power industry with or without nuclear energy. Annex 2 presents terms and definitions, and the remaining three annexes contain literature lists of the expert opinions. (HSCH) [de

  1. Social influence and the collective dynamics of opinion formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussaïd, Mehdi; Kämmer, Juliane E; Analytis, Pantelis P; Neth, Hansjörg

    2013-01-01

    Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a prominent role in many self-organized phenomena such as herding in cultural markets, the spread of ideas and innovations, and the amplification of fears during epidemics. Yet, the mechanisms of opinion formation remain poorly understood, and existing physics-based models lack systematic empirical validation. Here, we report two controlled experiments showing how participants answering factual questions revise their initial judgments after being exposed to the opinion and confidence level of others. Based on the observation of 59 experimental subjects exposed to peer-opinion for 15 different items, we draw an influence map that describes the strength of peer influence during interactions. A simple process model derived from our observations demonstrates how opinions in a group of interacting people can converge or split over repeated interactions. In particular, we identify two major attractors of opinion: (i) the expert effect, induced by the presence of a highly confident individual in the group, and (ii) the majority effect, caused by the presence of a critical mass of laypeople sharing similar opinions. Additional simulations reveal the existence of a tipping point at which one attractor will dominate over the other, driving collective opinion in a given direction. These findings have implications for understanding the mechanisms of public opinion formation and managing conflicting situations in which self-confident and better informed minorities challenge the views of a large uninformed majority.

  2. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  3. On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

    2001-05-01

    In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

  4. The definition and diagnosis of cold hypersensitivity in the hands and feet: Finding from the experts survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Kwang-Ho; Jeong, Young-Seok; Go, Ho-Yeon; Sun, Seung-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hoon; Jung, Ki-Yong; Song, Yun-Kyung; Ko, Seong-Gyu; Choi, You-Kyung; Park, Jong-Hyeong; Lee, Siwoo; Lee, Youngseop; Jeon, Chan-Yong

    2018-03-01

    Cold hypersensitivity in the hands and feet (CHHF) is a symptom patients usually feel cold in their hands and feet, but not dealt with a disease in western medicine. However, it is often appealed by patients at a clinic of Korean medicine (KM), considered to be a sort of key diagnostic indicator, and actively treated by physicians. Nevertheless, there is no standardized diagnostic definition for CHHF. Therefore, we surveyed KM experts' opinions to address the clinical definition, diagnostic criteria, and other relevant things on CHHF. We developed a survey to assess the definition, diagnosis, causes, and accompanying symptoms on CHHF. 31 experts who work at specialized university hospitals affiliated with KM hospitals consented to participation. Experts responded to survey questions by selecting multiple-choice answers or stating their opinions. Vast majority of experts (83.8%) agreed with our definition on CHHF ("a feeling of cold as a symptom; that one's hands or feet become colder than those of average people in temperatures that are not normally perceived as cold"). 77.4% of experts considered subjective symptoms on CHHF were more important than medical instrument results. Constitution or genetic factors (87.1%) and stress (64.5%) were the most common causes reported for CHHF. This study offers an expert consensus regarding the themes, opinions, and experiences of practitioners with CHHF. Our results underscore the need for standardized definitions and diagnostic criteria for CHHF.

  5. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches.

  6. Expert Opinion in SR 97 and the SKI/SSI Joint Review of SR 97

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hora, Stephen

    2002-09-01

    The role of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for radioactive waste disposal assessments is reviewed. The report covers a description of the these concepts were applied in the authorities' review of the safety report SR 97. With regard to the use of expert knowledge, the most significant weakness of SR 97 is absence of any standards, procedures, and even definitions for expert judgment. This situation needs to be dealt with by SKB in the near future as it denigrates the portions of the study that are well done. In developing expert judgment processes, SSI should ensure that SKB creates procedures that guarantee traceability and transparency. This will become very important as the repository system matures and receives greater public scrutiny. Both in the area of scenario creation and expert judgement, there are processes that have gained international acceptance. It would be in the best interest of SKB, and the public, to adhere these accepted approaches

  7. Ask the experts how to treat individuals with spatial neglect: a survey study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peii; Pitteri, Marco; Gillen, Glen; Ayyala, Harsha

    2017-07-11

    Spatial neglect (SN) impedes rehabilitation success and leaves long-term consequences. We asked experts to provide their opinions in addressing SN by scenario (ideal vs. reality) and by recovery phase (earliest, acute, subacute, and chronic). Experts were individuals who have assessed or treated patients with SN clinically. This study was conducted using an anonymous survey on the Internet with 189 responders over 3 months. Located in 23 different countries, 127 experts of seven disciplines were included (occupational therapy, physical therapy, nursing, speech and language pathology or therapy, neurology, physical medicine and rehabilitation, and psychology or neuropsychology). Comparing the two scenarios, more treatments were selected in the ideal than in the reality scenario for all recovery phases except for the chronic phase. In both scenarios, (1) more treatments were selected in acute and subacute phases than in earliest or chronic phases, (2) less experienced experts selected diverse treatment options more often, and (3) highly experienced experts were more likely to provide their reasons of treatment selection, suggestions of treatment delivery methods, and other insights. Finally, 83.7% reported obstacles in treating SN. Experts' treatment selections are consistent with current evidence and practice guidelines. Recognizing the limitation of evidence, their opinions may help generate ideas in various topics (e.g., dosing, integrative intervention, and treatment implementation) to be examined in future studies. Implications for Rehabilitation Clinicians with experience in treating people with spatial neglect (i.e., experts as defined in the present study) recognized the limitation of evidence but nonetheless suggested specific treatments by recovery phase. In both the reality and ideal scenarios, experts included visual scanning, active limb activation, and sustained attention training in the top-five selections. Prism adaptation was in the top

  8. Basic foundations of phthisiology professionalization in the assessment of experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alenin P.N.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to study the conditions and stereotypes that determine the process of professionalization in the field of phthisiology. The main factors have been analyzed that characterize the situation of ТВ as a public health sphere in Russia. Material and Methods. Applying qualitative research strategy — semi-structured expert interviews. The basis of the study is the expert opinion of practitioners in the field of ТВ: ТВ service specialists of Saratov Region (Regional Clinical ТВ Dispensary in Saratov and lecturers of the department of Phthisiopulmonology of Saratov State Medical University n.a. V. I. Razumovsky (n=10. Results. The article presents research materials, aimed at identifying the specifics of the basic foundations of national ТВ professionalization. The main factors of vocational choice include a personal interest in the profession, value preferences, information availability, safety and the risk of occupational diseases, the contingent of patients. Conclusion. On the basis of expert opinion the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors to assess ТВ status of the professional medical community, as well as students — physicians in the context of their future professional socialization have been described.

  9. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

    2009-01-01

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  10. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

    2009-06-15

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

  11. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

  12. Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-06-15

    There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

  13. Preliminary statement concerning the expert opinion and other documents relating to the Wackersdorf fuel reprocessing plant, laid open between June 18 and July 15, 1985 by the Bavarian Ministry of State for Regional Development and Environmental Affairs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The conclusion drawn in the statement is that the expert opinions and documents available do not justify the granting of a first partial licence for the erection of the fuel reprocessing plant. Such a first partial licence would include the site approval, the outline design approval, and part-construction permits, in this case for instance for the fuel element receiving store. The site approval would be a premature decision according to this statement, as some decisive expert opinions (on meteorological, hydrological, and radioecological site conditions) are not yet completed. The documents available for evaluation of the design concept are said to have been insufficient in many regards, so that all the authors can state at the present time is that 'there may be technically feasible solutions by now'. This is judged to be an insufficient basis for an outline design approval in accordance with the Atomic Energy Act. The reasons brought forward against licensing the fuel element receiving store are similar. For lack of appropriate documents, the authors of the statement found themselves unable to assess the safety of a major component, the fuel element storage tank. (orig./HSCH) [de

  14. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  15. An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Dobrinić, Damir; Dvorski, Stjepan; Bosilj, Neven

    2008-01-01

    Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and...

  16. Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

    1995-02-01

    Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  17. Expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third......-line treatment for CSU. However, the definition of response to omalizumab treatment often differs between clinical trials, real-world studies, and daily practice of individual physicians globally. As such, a consensus definition of "complete", "partial" and "non-response" to omalizumab is required in order...... into a patient's disease burden and its changes during treatment. A potential omalizumab treatment approach based on speed and pattern of response at 1-3 and 3-6 months is suggested. In cases where there is no response during the first 1-3 months, physicians should consider reassessing the original CSU diagnosis...

  18. Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: guptanidhi12@gmail.com; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); George, Saji, E-mail: saji_george@nyp.gov.sg [Nanyang Polytechnic, Centre for Sustainable Nanotechnology, School of Chemical and Life Sciences (Singapore); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2013-08-15

    The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors.

  19. Expert views on societal responses to different applications of nanotechnology: a comparative analysis of experts in countries with different economic and regulatory environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; George, Saji; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2013-01-01

    The introduction of different applications of nanotechnology will be informed by expert views regarding which (types of) application will be most societally acceptable. Previous research in Northern Europe has indicated that experts believe that various factors will be influential, predominant among these being public perceptions of benefit, need and consumer concern about contact with nanomaterials. These factors are thought by experts to differentiate societal acceptance and rejection of nanotechnology applications. This research utilises a larger sample of experts (N = 67) drawn from Northern America, Europe, Australasia, India and Singapore to examine differences in expert opinion regarding societal acceptance of different applications of nanotechnology within different technological environments, consumer cultures and regulatory regimes. Perceived risk and consumer concerns regarding contact with nano-particles are thought by all experts to drive rejection, and perceived benefits to influence acceptance, independent of country. Encapsulation and delivery of nutrients in food was thought to be the most likely to raise societal concerns, while targeted drug delivery was thought most likely to be accepted. Lack of differentiation between countries suggests that expert views regarding social acceptance may be homogenous, independent of local contextual factors

  20. Opinions and statements of the experts who studied the framework conditions of abandonment of nuclear power - presented by the commission set in by the OeTV Executive Board (Public Services and Transport Workers' Union)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-10-01

    The publication consists of two volumes and explains the position and opinions of the OeTV Executive Board concerning abandonment of nuclear power. The first volume presents the Executive Board's statement given in September 1987: Nuclear power should be abandoned, and it can be done; energy policy has to take a new line, concentrating on energy conservation, enhanced use of coal for electricity generation, enhanced use of renewable energy sources; stepwise shutdown of nuclear power stations. The first volume also presents the documents and experience forming the basis of the Union's position, namely the expert opinions on this issue, and an information visit to Sweden together with a report of Sweden's Minister of Industry on effects of the Chernobyl reactor accident. The development of the Union's point of view of energy policy since the year 1976. (HSCH) [de

  1. Treatment of severe psoriasis in children: recommendations of an Italian expert group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortina, Anna Belloni; Bardazzi, Federico; Berti, Samantha; Carnevale, Claudia; Di Lernia, Vito; El Hachem, Maya; Neri, Iria; Gelmetti, Carlo Mario; Lora, Viviana; Mazzatenta, Carlo; Milioto, Mirella; Moretta, Gaia; Patrizi, Annalisa; Peris, Ketty; Villani, Alberto

    2017-10-01

    This article provides comprehensive recommendations for the systemic treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis based on evidence obtained from a systematic review of the literature and the consensus opinion of expert dermatologists and pediatricians. For each systemic treatment, the grade of recommendation (A, B, C) based on the treatment's approval by the European Medicines Agency for childhood psoriasis and the experts' opinions is discussed. The grade of recommendation for narrow-band-ultraviolet B phototherapy, cyclosporine, and retinoids is C, while that for methotrexate is C/B. The use of adalimumab, etanercept, and ustekinumab has a grade A recommendation. No conventional systemic treatments are approved for pediatric psoriasis. Adalimumab is approved by the European Medicines Agency as a first-line treatment for severe chronic plaque psoriasis in children (≥ 4 years old) and adolescents. Etanercept and ustekinumab are approved as second-line therapy in children ≥ 6 and ≥ 12 years, respectively. A treatment algorithm as well as practical tools (i.e., tabular summaries of differential diagnoses, treatment mechanism of actions, dosing regimens, control parameters) are provided to assist in therapeutic reasoning and decision-making for individual patients. These treatment recommendations are endorsed by major Italian Pediatric and Dermatology Societies. What is Known: • Guidelines for the treatment of severe pediatric psoriasis are lacking and most traditional systemic treatments are not approved for use in young patients. Although there has been decades of experience with some of the traditional agents such as phototherapy, acitretin, and cyclosporine in children, there are no RCTs on their pediatric use while RCTs investigating new biologic agents have been performed. What is New: • In this manuscript, an Italian multidisciplinary team of experts focused on treatment recommendations for severe forms of psoriasis in children based on an up

  2. Updated clinical indications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe aortic stenosis: expert opinion of the Italian Society of Cardiology and GISE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indolfi, Ciro; Bartorelli, Antonio L; Berti, Sergio; Golino, Paolo; Esposito, Giovanni; Musumeci, Giuseppe; Petronio, Sonia; Tamburino, Corrado; Tarantini, Giuseppe; Ussia, Gianpaolo; Vassanelli, Corrado; Spaccarotella, Carmen; Violini, Roberto; Mercuro, Giuseppe; Romeo, Francesco

    2018-05-01

    : The introduction of percutaneous treatment of severe aortic stenosis with transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains one of the greatest achievements of interventional cardiology. In fact, TAVI emerged as a better option than either medical therapy or balloon aortic valvuloplasty for patients who cannot undergo surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or are at high surgical risk. Recently, increased operator experience and improved device systems have led to a worldwide trend toward the extension of TAVI to low-risk or intermediate-risk patients. In this expert opinion paper, we first discuss the basic pathophysiology of aortic stenosis in different settings then the key results of recent clinical investigations on TAVI in intermediate-risk aortic stenosis patients are summarized. Particular emphasis is placed on the results of the nordic aortic valve intervention, placement of aortic transcatheter valves (PARTNER) 2 and Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Randomized trials. The PARTNER 2 was the first large randomized trial that evaluated the outcome of TAVI in patients at intermediate risk. The PARTNER 2 data demonstrated that TAVI is a feasible and reasonable alternative to surgery in intermediate-risk patients (Society of Thoracic Surgeons 4-8%), especially if they are elderly or frail. There was a significant interaction between TAVI approach and mortality, with transfemoral TAVI showing superiority over SAVR. Moreover, we examine the complementary results of the recently concluded Surgical Replacement and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation trial. This prospective randomized trial demonstrated that TAVI is comparable with surgery (primary end point 12.6% in the TAVI group vs. 14.0% in the SAVR group) in severe aortic stenosis patients deemed to be at intermediate risk. We review the most relevant clinical evidence deriving from nonrandomized studies and meta-analyses. Altogether, clinical outcome available data

  3. Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

    2018-01-01

    The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

  4. Part of an observatory of opinions on risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenot, J.

    1999-01-01

    An observatory of opinions about risks constitutes the frame in which can be developed exchanges between research workers, engineers, experts, persons in charge of authorities and societies managers for who the way whom the public takes into account the risks constitutes an element of the management, the decision or the communication. The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (I.P.S.N.) has, with the passing of the years, build a such observatory whom activities are developed according to several directions. (N.C.)

  5. User Information Needs for Environmental Opinion-forming and Decision-making in Link-enriched Video

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.C. Palumbo; L. Hardman (Lynda)

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractLink-enriched video can support users in informative processes of environmental opinion-forming and decision-making. To enable this, we need to specify the information that should be captured in an annotation schema for describing the video. We conducted expert interviews to elicit

  6. Use of fuzzy set theory in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Joo Hyun; Kang, Chang Sun

    1999-01-01

    It is sometimes impossible to make a correct decision in a certain engineering task without the help from professional expert judgments. Even though there are different expert opinions available, however, they should be appropriately aggregated to a useful form for making an acceptable engineering decision. This paper proposes a technique which utilizes the fuzzy set theory in the aggregation of expert judgments. In the technique, two main key concepts are employed: linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. Linguistic variables first represent the relative importance of evaluation criteria under consideration and the degree of confidence on each expert perceived by the decision maker, and then are replaced by suitable triangular fuzzy numbers for arithmetic manipulation. As a benchmark problem, the pressure increment in the containment of Sequoyah nuclear power plant due to reactor vessel breach was estimated to verify and validate the proposed technique

  7. 2002/03 public opinion survey 'Nuclear Energy - the Present and the Future'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trontl, K.; Gergeta, K.

    2003-01-01

    During the years 2000 and 2002 the Croatian Nuclear Society Young Generation Network carried out public opinion surveys among student population of around 650 individuals age 18-20. The results of the surveys suggested the necessity of a more active involvement of nuclear experts in high school education. Croatian Young Generation Network decided to prepare brochures on different subjects concerning nuclear energy and distribute them to high school students, primarily third and fourth graders. To be able to evaluate the influence of distributed materials, fresh reference data are needed. Therefore, a traditional public opinion survey 'Nuclear Energy - the Present and the Future' has been carried out among faculty student population. (author)

  8. A Web-Based Rice Plant Expert System Using Rule-Based Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Rice plants can be attacked by various kinds of diseases which are possible to be determined from their symptoms. However, it is to recognize that to find out the exact type of disease, an agricultural expert’s opinion is needed, meanwhile the numbers of agricultural experts are limited and there are too many problems to be solved at the same time. This makes a system with a capability as an expert is required. This system must contain the knowledge of the diseases and symptom of rice plants as an agricultural expert has to have. This research designs a web-based expert system using rule-based reasoning. The rule are modified from the method of forward chaining inference and backward chaining in order to to help farmers in the rice plant disease diagnosis. The web-based rice plants disease diagnosis expert system has the advantages to access and use easily. With web-based features inside, it is expected that the farmer can accesse the expert system everywhere to overcome the problem to diagnose rice diseases.

  9. Experts' consensus on use of electronic cigarettes: a Delphi survey from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaser, Jeremie; Cornuz, Jacques

    2015-04-15

    In some countries, nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are considered a consumer product without specific regulations. In others (eg, Switzerland), the sale of e-cigarettes containing nicotine is forbidden, despite the eagerness of many smokers to obtain them. As scientific data about efficacy and long-term safety of these products are scarce, tobacco control experts are divided on how to regulate them. In order to gain consensus among experts to provide recommendations to health authorities, we performed a national consensus study. We used a Delphi method with electronic questionnaires to bring together the opinion of Swiss experts on e-cigarettes. 40 Swiss experts from across the country. We measured the degree of consensus between experts on recommendations regarding regulation, sale, use of and general opinion about e-cigarettes containing nicotine. New recommendations and statements were added following the experts' answers and comments. There was consensus that e-cigarettes containing nicotine should be made available, but only under specific conditions. Sale should be restricted to adults, using quality standards, a maximum level of nicotine and with an accompanying list of authorised ingredients. Advertisement should be restricted and use in public places should be forbidden. These recommendations encompass three principles: (1) the reality principle, as the product is already on the market; (2) the prevention principle, as e-cigarettes provide an alternative to tobacco for actual smokers, and (3) the precautionary principle, to protect minors and non-smokers, since long-term effects are not yet known. Swiss authorities should design specific regulations to sell nicotine-containing e-cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  10. Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolger, Donnacha; Houlding, Brett

    2017-01-01

    Linear opinion pools are a common method for combining a set of distinct opinions into a single succinct opinion, often to be used in a decision making task. In this paper we consider a method, termed the Plug-in approach, for determining the weights to be assigned in this linear pool, in a manner that can be deemed as rational in some sense, while incorporating multiple forms of learning over time into its process. The environment that we consider is one in which every source in the pool is herself a decision maker (DM), in contrast to the more common setting in which expert judgments are amalgamated for use by a single DM. We discuss a simulation study that was conducted to show the merits of our technique, and demonstrate how theoretical probabilistic arguments can be used to exactly quantify the probability of this technique being superior (in terms of a probability density metric) to a set of alternatives. Illustrations are given of simulated proportions converging to these true probabilities in a range of commonly used distributional cases. - Highlights: • A novel context for combination of expert opinion is provided. • A dynamic reliability assessment method is stated, justified by properties and a data study. • The theoretical grounding underlying the data-driven justification is explored. • We conclude with areas for expansion and further relevant research.

  11. Monitoring and control of microbioreactors: An expert opinion on development needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Baganz, Frank; Franco-Lara, Ezequiel

    2012-01-01

    This perspective article is based on an expert panel review on microbioreactor applications in biochemical and biomedical engineering that was organized by the M3C (measurement, monitoring, modelling and control) Working Group of the European Section of Biochemical Engineering Science (ESBES......) in the European Federation of Biotechnology (EFB). The aim of the panel was to provide an updated view on the present status of the subject and to identify critical needs and issues for furthering the successful development of microbioreactor monitoring and control. This will benefit future bioprocess development...

  12. OpinionFlow: Visual Analysis of Opinion Diffusion on Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingcai; Liu, Shixia; Yan, Kai; Liu, Mengchen; Wu, Fangzhao

    2014-12-01

    It is important for many different applications such as government and business intelligence to analyze and explore the diffusion of public opinions on social media. However, the rapid propagation and great diversity of public opinions on social media pose great challenges to effective analysis of opinion diffusion. In this paper, we introduce a visual analysis system called OpinionFlow to empower analysts to detect opinion propagation patterns and glean insights. Inspired by the information diffusion model and the theory of selective exposure, we develop an opinion diffusion model to approximate opinion propagation among Twitter users. Accordingly, we design an opinion flow visualization that combines a Sankey graph with a tailored density map in one view to visually convey diffusion of opinions among many users. A stacked tree is used to allow analysts to select topics of interest at different levels. The stacked tree is synchronized with the opinion flow visualization to help users examine and compare diffusion patterns across topics. Experiments and case studies on Twitter data demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of OpinionFlow.

  13. Risk perceptions starting to shift? U.S. citizens are forming opinions about nanotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priest, Susanna; Greenhalgh, Ted; Kramer, Victoria

    2010-01-01

    This article presents early results from an opinion formation study based on a 76-member panel of U.S. citizens, with comparison data from a group of 177 nanotechnology experts. While initially similar to the expert group in terms of their perceptions of the risks, benefits, and need for regulation characterizing several forms of nanotechnology, the first follow-up survey indicates that the panel is beginning to diverge from the experts, particularly with respect to perceptions of the levels of various 'societal' risks that nanotechnology might present. The data suggest that responding to public concerns may involve more than attention to physical risks in areas such as health and environment; concerns about other forms of risk actually appear more salient.

  14. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  15. Towards an ICF core set for ADHD: a worldwide expert survey on ability and disability

    OpenAIRE

    de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; Coghill, David; de Vries, Petrus J.; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Levy, Florence; Almodayfer, Omar; Rohde, Luis; Tannock, Rosemary; B?lte, Sven

    2015-01-01

    This is the second in a series of four empirical studies designed to develop International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF and Children and Youth version, ICF-CY) core sets for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The objective of this stage was to gather the opinions from international experts on which ability and disability concepts were considered relevant to functioning in ADHD. An email-based survey was carried out amongst international experts in AD...

  16. THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

  17. The IRSN 2008 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about quantitative criteria of risk management and about the image of science), on their opinion of scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), incidents which occurred in 2007, the demand of information on the nuclear risk), and on their opinion about radiotherapy accidents in France

  18. Second-opinion interpretations of gynecologic oncologic MRI examinations by sub-specialized radiologists influence patient care

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakhman, Yulia; Vargas, Hebert Alberto; Sosa, Ramon E.; Hricak, Hedvig; Sala, Evis; D'Anastasi, Melvin; Micco, Maura; Scelzo, Chiara; Nougaret, Stephanie; Chi, Dennis S.; Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R.

    2016-01-01

    To determine if second-opinion review of gynaecologic oncologic (GynOnc) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by sub-specialized radiologists impacts patient care. 469 second-opinion MRI interpretations rendered by GynOnc radiologists were retrospectively compared to the initial outside reports. Two gynaecologic surgeons, blinded to the reports' origins, reviewed all cases with discrepancies between initial and second-opinion MRI reports and recorded whether these discrepancies would have led to a change in patient management defined as a change in treatment approach, counselling, or referral. Histopathology or minimum 6-month imaging follow-up were used to establish the diagnosis. Second-opinion review of GynOnc MRIs would theoretically have affected management in 94/469 (20 %) and 101/469 (21.5 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. Specifically, second-opinion review would have theoretically altered treatment approach in 71/469 (15.1 %) and 60/469 (12.8 %) patients for surgeons 1 and 2, respectively. According to surgeons 1 and 2, these treatment changes would have prevented unnecessary surgery in 35 (7.5 %) and 31 (6.6 %) patients, respectively, and changed surgical procedure type/extent in 19 (4.1 %) and 12 (2.5 %) patients, respectively. Second-opinion interpretations were correct in 103 (83 %) of 124 cases with clinically relevant discrepancies between initial and second-opinion reports. Expert second-opinion review of GynOnc MRI influences patient care. (orig.)

  19. The IRSN 2010 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 32 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 32 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  20. The IRSN 2009 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (about the society, about the environment, about the image of science), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), the opinion on 31 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 31 situations), the opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners, incidents which occurred in 2008, the demand of information on the nuclear risk)

  1. Alleged child sexual abuse : The expert witness and the court

    OpenAIRE

    Gumpert, Clara Hellner

    2001-01-01

    Background During the past decades, the evaluation of alleged sexual abuse has manifested itself as a major challenge for professionals working within the field of child maltreatment. A new role for psychologists and psychiatrists has been to give expert opinions regarding the credibility and reliability of child witnesses in legal proceedings. Although some aspects of evaluating suspected sexual abuse cases are close to traditional clinical work, other aspects necessitate ...

  2. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology : an expert stakeholder analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, N.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Lans, van der, I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

  3. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

  4. Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

  5. Structured expert elicitation about Listeria monocytogenes cross-contamination in the environment of retail deli operations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoelzer, Karin; Oliver, Haley F; Kohl, Larry R; Hollingsworth, Jill; Wells, Martin T; Wiedmann, Martin

    2012-07-01

    Listeria monocytogenes is among the foodborne pathogens with the highest death toll in the United States. Ready-to-eat foods contaminated at retail are an important source of infection. Environmental sites in retail deli operations can be contaminated. However, commonly contaminated sites are unlikely to come into direct contact with food and the public health relevance of environmental contamination has remained unclear. To identify environmental sites that may pose a considerable cross-contamination risk, to elucidate potential transmission pathways, and to identify knowledge gaps, we performed a structured expert elicitation of 41 experts from state regulatory agencies and the food retail industry with practical experience in retail deli operations. Following the "Delphi" method, the elicitation was performed in three consecutive steps: questionnaire, review and discussion of results, second questionnaire. Hands and gloves were identified as important potential contamination sources. However, bacterial transfers to and from hands or gloves represented a major data gap. Experts agreed about transfer probabilities from cutting boards, scales, deli cases, and deli preparation sinks to product, and about transfer probabilities from floor drains, walk-in cooler floors, and knife racks to food contact surfaces. Comparison of experts' opinions to observational data revealed a tendency among experts with certain demographic characteristics and professional opinions to overestimate prevalence. Experts' votes clearly clustered into separate groups not defined by place of employment, even though industry experts may have been somewhat overrepresented in one cluster. Overall, our study demonstrates the value and caveats of expert elicitation to identify data gaps and prioritize research efforts. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Identifying the Essential Elements of Effective Science Communication: What Do the Experts Say?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, Belinda; France, Bev; Gilbert, John K.

    2012-01-01

    Experts in science communication were asked to identify the essential elements of a science communication course for post-graduate students. A Delphi methodology provided a framework for a research design that accessed their opinions and allowed them to contribute to, reflect on and identify 10 essential elements. There was a high level of…

  7. The necessity of repeated assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records in medico-legal opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Borowska-Solonynko

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents two case reports of living victims, in which imaging studies of the chest conducted at a medical facility were an essential part of the medico-legal opinion. The first case was that of a young male hospitalized due to CT evidence of bilateral rib fractions, who claimed to have been assaulted by police officers. The other case was that of a six week old baby hospitalized due to chest X-ray evidence of right hand side rib fractions. The chest X-ray was performed due to one bruise found on the baby’s forehead and two small bruises on the back, which gave rise to suspicions of child abuse. In both cases, expert witnesses in radiology definitively excluded the presence of any fractures. These cases indicate that a new assessment of imaging studies contained in medical records is needed. Expert opinions based solely on the description of imaging studies may result in grave consequences.

  8. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  9. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  10. CLINICAL PATHWAYS IN 17 EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES: A SURVEY OF EXPERT OPINIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Hindle

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Background. The main focus of the survey is on the extent to which clinical pathways are being used, and whether it might provide a basis for improved service planning and consequently strategic asset planning in health care.Methods. In the first stage, our aim was to make contact with one agency in each country (the primary agency below that would be able to provide contacts within that country with a mix of experts from each of the following types of agencies: Health sector government regulator, Health care purchasing (insurance agencies, Senior clinical managers in hospitals, Senior clinical managers in non-hospital care provider agencies (eg, home care, or primary medical care, Health professional societies (preferably medical and nursing, Accreditation or audit agencies, Consumer associations and Public or private agencies concerned with health facilities development. Definitions of these agencies and other terms were attached to the questionnaire itself. We would then ask the primary agency to choose the experts that were most likely to be aware of clinical pathway use. The persons thus contacted would then be asked to complete the questionnaire and send it back to the researchers. The aim was not to attempt to establish a random sample, but rather to target well-informed people.Results. 51 completed questionnaires were provided by largely self-selected experts from 17 EU countries. Respondents reported that pathways are important and becoming increasingly widely used (although the rate of progress is highly variable, the main constraints to their use are a cultural aversion among doctors and little encouragement from external parties, and there is growing recognition that multi-setting pathways have the greatest potential value.Conclusions. More needs to be done to achieve a common understanding of the ideas of pathways, strategic asset planning, and the interrelationships. Systems problems need systems solutions. In the case of clinical

  11. Nuclear energy and public opinion: arousal of a myth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrafiotis, D.; Delarminat, E.; Morlat, G.; Pages, J.P.

    1977-01-01

    In order to explain why an individual or the public opinion is in favour or against the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, one should not only consider the dimension of the involved risk, as radiation protection and safety experts will often do. Many other dimensions should be considered all the more as the nuclear problem is gaining importance on a national level, becoming the topic of the day in press and other media and the subject of 'definite' position from political parties and social groups. An investigation carried out within the Protection Division of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) has made it possible to specify the socio-cultural dimensions at the origin of the attitudes taken on the nuclear problem in France. The nuclear topic was therefore compared with other present topics interesting public opinion; this comparison was made possible by means of an attitude survey covering various social groups. A model of social perception was thus developed [fr

  12. Bridge between public perception and expert assessment of nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-09-01

    Preparation of the brief consisted of a comprehensive review of literature, selective interviews of available representative parties, and categorization of the spectrum of opinions. Analysis of the information thus obtained included identification of reconcilable and irreconcilable differences among the opinions and indication of possible ways to bridge some of the differences. Opinions were generally found to be best categorized as the pro, neutral, and contra opinions associated with experts and the public. The primary issues separating the opposing groups appear to be the following: 1) the required input for probabilistic risk analysis of accidents; 2) the evaluation of what constitutes an acceptable risk; 3) the evaluation of potential long-term consequences; 4) the general need for nuclear energy; and 5) the long-term risk to public health. Among the above issues, potential for reconciliation was found only for the first two, while the latter issues, because of the relatively short history of the industry and paucity of knowledge on relevant factors, were found difficult to reconcile without expansion of our present knowledge and data base. Reconciliation, generally, was proposed through augmentation of communication among the opposing groups through the availability of appropriate fora and development of a general spirit of good intention for a common cause: mankind's ultimate well-being

  13. Proof of causation through expert opinion evidence in low-level radiation cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heideck, R.E.

    1985-01-01

    Tort law requires that the injured person prove that the injury was caused by a particular exposure to radiation for which the defendant is responsible. Heideck shows how expert evidence helps the court or jury resolve this question. The author analyzes a recent effort to bridge the gap between the legal requirement of proof of causation in individual cases and the conclusions that derive from group statistics. Some scientists argue that this approach is more technically sound than traditional tort law because it attempts to develop a probability of causation in individual cases

  14. Best practice strategies to safeguard drug prescribing and drug administration: an anthology of expert views and opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidling, Hanna M; Stützle, Marion; Hoppe-Tichy, Torsten; Allenet, Benoît; Bedouch, Pierrick; Bonnabry, Pascal; Coleman, Jamie J; Fernandez-Llimos, Fernando; Lovis, Christian; Rei, Maria Jose; Störzinger, Dominic; Taylor, Lenka A; Pontefract, Sarah K; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; van der Sijs, Heleen; Haefeli, Walter E

    2016-04-01

    While evidence on implementation of medication safety strategies is increasing, reasons for selecting and relinquishing distinct strategies and details on implementation are typically not shared in published literature. We aimed to collect and structure expert information resulting from implementing medication safety strategies to provide advice for decision-makers. Medication safety experts with clinical expertise from thirteen hospitals throughout twelve European and North American countries shared their experience in workshop meetings, on-site-visits and remote structured interviews. We performed an expert-based, in-depth assessment of implementation of best-practice strategies to improve drug prescribing and drug administration. Workflow, variability and recommended medication safety strategies in drug prescribing and drug administration processes. According to the experts, institutions chose strategies that targeted process steps known to be particularly error-prone in the respective setting. Often, the selection was channeled by local constraints such as the e-health equipment and critically modulated by national context factors. In our study, the experts favored electronic prescribing with clinical decision support and medication reconciliation as most promising interventions. They agreed that self-assessment and introduction of medication safety boards were crucial to satisfy the setting-specific differences and foster successful implementation. While general evidence for implementation of strategies to improve medication safety exists, successful selection and adaptation of a distinct strategy requires a thorough knowledge of the institute-specific constraints and an ongoing monitoring and adjustment of the implemented measures.

  15. Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

  16. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  17. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-05-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  18. Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

    2017-10-01

    The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

  19. Involvement of experts in nuclear licensing and supervisory procedures who are known for their critical attitude towards nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schirp, W.

    1996-01-01

    The article discusses legal and procedural aspects in the context of expert opinions demanded by the supervisory and licensing authorities of nuclear power plants, and the role and activities of experts known for their critical approach to nuclear electricity generation. The aspects addressed are: Reasons to break the dominance of ''established'' experts who in general are members of the TUeV organisations (technical control boards), reasons for challenging motions such as suspicion of prejudice or insufficient expertise, order by the supervisory authority to take a ''dual approach'' and involve two experts for a task, as well as the relevant administrative and legal procedures. (orig./CB) [de

  20. Who are the opinion leaders? The physicians, pharmacists, patients, and direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Annisa Lai

    2010-09-01

    A popular perception holds that physicians prescribe requested drugs to patients influenced by mass mediated direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising. The phenomenon poses a serious challenge to the two-step flow model, which emphasizes the influence of opinion leaders on their followers and their legitimating power over the informing power of the mass media. This study investigates a 2002 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) survey and finds that patients searching for drug information through mass and hybrid media in newspapers and magazines' small print, the Internet, and toll-free numbers are more likely to seek information through interpersonal communication channels like health care providers. Patients using small print, toll-free numbers, one's own physician, and other physicians are associated with influencing their physicians with various drug-requesting behaviors. But physicians only prescribe requested drugs to patients who are influenced by other health care providers, such as pharmacists and other physicians, not the mass media. The influence of expert opinion leaders of drugs is so strong that the patients even would switch from their own unyielding physicians who do not prescribe drugs as advised by the pharmacists. Physicians and patients all are influenced more by other expert opinion leaders of drugs than by the mass media and therefore still uphold the basic tenet of the two-step model.

  1. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

    2017-01-01

    developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

  2. The IRSN 2012 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle

    2012-01-01

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (what is the most concerning issue in the present society and in the environment, science within concerns), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), on their opinion on 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities to protect them, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 33 situations), on their opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), and on the Fukushima accident (perception of the accident, quality of information, expectations on the assessment of nuclear power stations)

  3. Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

    2015-01-01

    Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

  4. Essential elements of an early intervention service for psychosis: the opinions of expert clinicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lewis Shôn

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Early intervention teams attempt to improve outcome in schizophrenia through earlier detection and the provision of phase-specific treatments. Whilst the number of early intervention teams is growing, there is a lack of clarity over their essential structural and functional elements. Methods A 'Delphi' exercise was carried out to identify how far there was consensus on the essential elements of early intervention teams in a group of 21 UK expert clinicians. Using published guidelines, an initial list was constructed containing 151 elements from ten categories of team structure and function. Results Overall there was expert consensus on the importance of 136 (90% of these elements. Of the items on which there was consensus, 106 (70.2% were rated essential, meaning that in their absence the functioning of the team would be severely impaired. Conclusion This degree of consensus over essential elements suggests that it is reasonable to define a model for UK early intervention teams, from which a measure of fidelity could be derived.

  5. Patriotic Education of Youth in Russia: Problems, Opinions, Expert Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Жанна Васильевна Пузанова

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Patriotism is designated as a national idea in Russia; nowadays the questions the relevance of patriotic education of the most reactive of social groups - young people - is especially acute. Round table in the format of focus groups with 20 experts working with young people, among them - professors, teachers, veterans, employees public authorities to work with youth was held on the 27th of May 2016 on the basis of the museum-panorama “Battle of Stalingrad” in Volgograd, with the assistance of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. During the two-hour round table were discussed issues of civil and patriotic education of youth, including the theme - “Ultrapatriotizm-Patriotism-pseudo-patriotism” (ratio of the concepts, their similarities and differences, manifestations in modern Russian society among young people, “Today's youth and moral conflicts” (spiritually-moral development of today's youth, its values, “infantilism - the scourge of modern youth?” (problem of infantilism as a barrier in the way of civic and patriotic education, “Does extremist views attractive for young people?” (the attitude of youth to extremism and terrorism, effective countermeasures of youth involvement in extremist groups.

  6. Public perceptions and preferences regarding large scale implementation of six CO2 capture and storage technologies. Well-informed and well-considered opinions versus uninformed pseudo-opinions of the Dutch public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Best-Waldhober, M.; Daamen, D.

    2006-03-01

    Three research projects were carried out within the framework of the programme 'Sustainable use of fossil fuels'. Two research projects focussed on technical aspects of advanced fossil fuel options with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). The focus of the third project was on studying informed opinions of the general public regarding advanced fossil fuel options. This study has investigated the choices the general public would make after having received and evaluated expert information on the consequences pertaining to these choices. The method to collect these informed preferences is called the Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ). By comparing informed public preferences, obtained through administration of the ICQ, with current public opinions and preferences regarding fossil fuel options, collected in a more conventional survey, the outcomes of this project can indicate what options would be considered acceptable given sufficient knowledge, and how much and in what respect the current situation deviates from this possible future situation. Answering these questions constitutes the main goal of this project. This report describes the development and deployment of the Information-Choice Questionnaire on advanced fossil fuel options. It furthermore describes the parallel deployment of a more traditional questionnaire without expert information and a second measure of this more traditional questionnaire. This report encompasses all parts of the project 'Informed opinions of the general public as a tool for policy measures regarding advanced fossil fuel options'. This report will explain the ICQ methodology and its usefulness for this project. Furthermore, the development of the current ICQ, the method of the ICQ and of the more traditional questionnaires, and the results thereof, are described.

  7. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

  8. An expert display system and nuclear power plant control rooms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1988-01-01

    An expert display system controls automatically the display of segments on a cathode ray tube's screen to form an image of plant operations. The image consists of an icon of: 1) the process (heat engine cycle), 2) plant control systems, and 3) safety systems. A set of data-driven, forward-chaining computer stored rules control the display of segments. As plant operation changes, measured plant data are processed through the rules, and the results control the deletion and addition of segments to the display format. The icon contains information needed by control rooms operators to monitor plant operations. One example of an expert display is illustrated for the operator's task of monitoring leakage from a safety valve in a steam line of a boiling water reactor (BWR). In another example, the use of an expert display to monitor plant operations during pre-trip, trip, and post-trip operations is discussed as a universal display. The viewpoints and opinions expressed herein are the author's personal ones, and they are not to be interpreted as Nuclear Regulatory Commission criteria, requirements, or guidelines

  9. The role of the article 31 experts group in harmonising the standards for radiation protection in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govaerts, P.

    2002-01-01

    Article 2 of the Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community) treaty requires the establishment of uniform safety standards to be implemented by each member state: Article 2, b: In order to perform its task the community shall establish uniform safety standards to protect the health of workers and of the general public and ensure that they are applied. The scope of those standards is defined by Article 30 and relates to doses compatible with adequate safety; levels of exposure and contamination; the fundamental principles governing the health surveillance of workers. Article 31 stipulates the decision making process with respect to those standards. Article 31: The basic standards shall be worked out by the Commission after it has obtained the opinion of a group of persons appointed by the Scientific and Technical Committee from among scientific experts, and in particular public health experts, in the Member States. The Commission shall obtain the opinion of the Economic and Social Committee on these basic standards. After consulting the Assembly the Council shall, on a proposal from the Commission, which shall forward to it the opinions from these Committees, establish the basic safety standards; the Council shall act by a qualified majority

  10. Continental mapping of groundwater dependent ecosystems: A methodological framework to integrate diverse data and expert opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanya M. Doody

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights: It was identified that 34% of Australia’s landscape potentially contains GDEs of which 5% are classified with a high GDE potential. In addition, new continental scale insights into landscape processes where provided by the derivation and integration of remote sensing products using MODIS and Landsat. These products identify landscapes which are ‘wetter’ or ‘greener’ than surrounding areas, indicating these landscapes are accessing additional water, such as groundwater, supplementary to rainfall. The method reported also demonstrates the importance of expert knowledge, obtained through literature and expert elicitation, in order to provide a conceptual understanding of regional ecohydrological processes to develop rules of GDE dependency that would guide the extrapolation of known GDEs.

  11. Leader's opinion priority bounded confidence model for network opinion evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang

    2017-08-01

    Aiming at the weight of trust someone given to participate in the interaction in Hegselmann-Krause's type consensus model is the same and virtual social networks among individuals with different level of education, personal influence, etc. For differences between agents, a novelty bounded confidence model was proposed with leader's opinion considered priority. Interaction neighbors can be divided into two kinds. The first kind is made up of "opinion leaders" group, another kind is made up of ordinary people. For different groups to give different weights of trust. We also analyzed the related characteristics of the new model under the symmetrical bounded confidence parameters and combined with the classical HK model were analyzed. Simulation experiment results show that no matter the network size and initial view is subject to uniform distribution or discrete distribution. We can control the "opinion-leader" good change the number of views and values, and even improve the convergence speed. Experiment also found that the choice of "opinion leaders" is not the more the better, the model well explain how the "opinion leader" in the process of the evolution of the public opinion play the role of the leader.

  12. Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

    2018-05-29

    Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

  13. The experience of a local partnership with experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Draulans, H.

    2004-01-01

    STOLA is an abbreviation for Structured Study group for Low-level short-lived radioactive waste, with all the actors of our small community of Dessel. You may know: social culture and economic factors of course all play a role in radioactive waste management and we work together with the experts of ONDRAF/NIRAS. But I am sure that was explained to you sufficiently yesterday and I can skip all that. 70 000 m 3 of low-level radioactive waste can be disposed of in our area and that only under certain safety conditions for humans and the environment. Of course one of the conditions is also that it has an added value for our municipality. In the past four years, I have participated in the activities of STOLA in Dessel and also led them. In that period, I met many, many experts, I spoke to them; I also really listened to them and together we worked on this disposal process. I will give you my personal opinion on that contact with those experts. Although I am going to be one in a long list of professors giving lectures today, I may not be the most scientific of speakers: I will be talking mainly from my experience with the people from STOLA. (author)

  14. A Child's Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pate, Joshua W; Hush, Julia M; Hancock, Mark J; Moseley, G Lorimer; Butler, David S; Simons, Laura E; Pacey, Verity

    2018-01-15

    A child's 'concept of pain' refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts' opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child's concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child's concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child's concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child's concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8-12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child's concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child's concept of pain.

  15. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1Maryam Kazemi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan. Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

  16. Ramadan fasting: Evidence or expert opinion? Results of preliminary studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Kazemi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Each year, over a billion Muslims fast worldwide during the month of Ramadan.  Through this religious practice, not only will one have spiritual growth, but can improve his/her diet, which is of pivotal importance in this month. Conversely, the available evidence regarding the health benefits of Ramadan fasting is scarce and highly contentious. Although Islam exempts patients from fasting, many of them fast conceivably and their clinical condition is prone to deteriorate. This is due to the persistent gap between current expert knowledge and conclusive, strong evidence regarding the pathophysiologic and metabolic alterations by fasting, and the consensus that healthcare professionals should reach, in order to manage various patient groups during this month. In this review, we summarize the results of our initial studies regarding the effects of Ramadan fasting on some clinical conditions including alterations of body composition. We also go through the important clinical results of patients who have had previous history of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, asthma and renal colic. Our studies have presented some evidence in favor of Ramadan fasting and encourage those with mentioned diseases to consult their physicians and follow medical and scientific recommendations. We attempt to present some relevant evidence clarify future scopes in this area of study, and provide suggestions for future investigations.

  17. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  18. Identification of component performance degradations caused by ageing using expert panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitoi, Mirela; Cristea, Dumitru; Pavelescu, Margarit

    2008-01-01

    Since the component ageing can be considered as one of the important causes of operating events reported, the identification of ageing effects and implementation of appropriate methods for mitigation of these effects represent an important preoccupation of many organizations and research activities. In the process of identification of ageing manifestation we can use either analysis of operational data or expert opinions, each of the methods having specific advantages and disadvantages. A reasonable combination of statistical, structural reliability and expert panel methods would be an appropriate approach in the failure probability assessments. In case when there are not enough operational data, the expert judgments represent the only viable alternative in the effort dedicated to identification of components and systems vulnerability to ageing. The panel use judgments to analyse the degradation produced by ageing, to score the components based on specific criteria and to rank them relative to one another. The paper presents the approach developed, including evaluation criteria and assigning indices for assessment of particular types of ageing degradation (the case of secondary system of TRIGA reactor). (authors)

  19. On the use of expert judgments to estimate the pressure increment in the Sequoyah containment at vessel breach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhibber, S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

    1994-01-01

    The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts' beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence

  20. Setting health research priorities using the CHNRI method: VI. Quantitative properties of human collective opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Sachiyo; Rudan, Igor; Cousens, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Crowdsourcing has become an increasingly important tool to address many problems - from government elections in democracies, stock market prices, to modern online tools such as TripAdvisor or Internet Movie Database (IMDB). The CHNRI method (the acronym for the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative) for setting health research priorities has crowdsourcing as the major component, which it uses to generate, assess and prioritize between many competing health research ideas. We conducted a series of analyses using data from a group of 91 scorers to explore the quantitative properties of their collective opinion. We were interested in the stability of their collective opinion as the sample size increases from 15 to 90. From a pool of 91 scorers who took part in a previous CHNRI exercise, we used sampling with replacement to generate multiple random samples of different size. First, for each sample generated, we identified the top 20 ranked research ideas, among 205 that were proposed and scored, and calculated the concordance with the ranking generated by the 91 original scorers. Second, we used rank correlation coefficients to compare the ranks assigned to all 205 proposed research ideas when samples of different size are used. We also analysed the original pool of 91 scorers to to look for evidence of scoring variations based on scorers' characteristics. The sample sizes investigated ranged from 15 to 90. The concordance for the top 20 scored research ideas increased with sample sizes up to about 55 experts. At this point, the median level of concordance stabilized at 15/20 top ranked questions (75%), with the interquartile range also generally stable (14-16). There was little further increase in overlap when the sample size increased from 55 to 90. When analysing the ranking of all 205 ideas, the rank correlation coefficient increased as the sample size increased, with a median correlation of 0.95 reached at the sample size of 45 experts (median of the rank

  1. [The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojer, Joanna

    2011-01-01

    The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

  2. Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

  3. Opinion and Persuasion

    OpenAIRE

    Ioan Constantin Dima; Daniela Gîfu

    2014-01-01

    The research proves that persuasion has two types of objectives. Its main objective is the change of opinion. Its fundamental and foundational objectives are the change in attitude, generic conduct and situational behaviour. The main objective controls the fundamental objectives. The change in attitudes and conduct/behaviour is presided by changes in opinion. Persuasion is thus shown to be primarily and ultimately a matter of opinion. As such, its mechanism to manage and generate ...

  4. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  5. Opinion dynamics in activity-driven networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dandan; Han, Dun; Ma, Jing; Sun, Mei; Tian, Lixin; Khouw, Timothy; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-10-01

    Social interaction between individuals constantly affects the development of their personal opinions. Previous models such as the Deffuant model and the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model have assumed that individuals only update their opinions after interacting with neighbors whose opinions are similar to their own. However, people are capable of communicating widely with all of their neighbors to gather their ideas and opinions, even if they encounter a number of opposing attitudes. We propose a model in which agents listen to the opinions of all their neighbors. Continuous opinion dynamics are investigated in activity-driven networks with a tolerance threshold. We study how the initial opinion distribution, tolerance threshold, opinion-updating speed, and activity rate affect the evolution of opinion. We find that when the initial fraction of positive opinion is small, all opinions become negative by the end of the simulation. As the initial fraction of positive opinions rises above a certain value —about 0.45— the final fraction of positive opinions sharply increases and eventually equals 1. Increased tolerance threshold δ is found to lead to a more varied final opinion distribution. We also find that if the negative opinion has an initial advantage, the final fraction of negative opinion increases and reaches its peak as the updating speed λ approaches 0.5. Finally we show that the lower the activity rate of individuals, the greater the fluctuation range of their opinions.

  6. The admissibility of offender profiling in courtroom: a review of legal issues and court opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosco, Dario; Zappalà, Angelo; Santtila, Pekka

    2010-01-01

    What is the future of Offender Profiling? Is it an important field of forensic science or is it only a glamorous art? After the trilogy "Daubert-Joiner-Kumho" and after the last version, in 2009, of the Federal Rules of Evidence (F.R.E.), the opinion of American Courts concerning the admissibility of scientific evidence has changed, and the questions above can now have new answers. The change is closely tied to the perceived difference between hard and soft sciences and, in this way, the new gatekeeping role of the Courts also concerns whether offender profiling can be regarded as scientific evidence and if offender profiling should be admitted in the Courtroom as scientific evidence. In this work we present a comprehensive review concerning the most important Court opinions in U.S.A, U.K., Canada and Australia, about reliability and admissibility of offender profiling, in its different forensic application, as scientific evidence, and we suggest how and when an expert witness in the field of offender profiling can, in the light of these opinions, be admitted in Court.

  7. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

  8. Travel opinion leaders and seekers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yoo, Kyung-Hyan; Gretzel, Ulrike; Zach, Florian

    2011-01-01

    While opinion leadership has been recognized as important in tourism, there has been very little empirical research investigating the phenomenon. Given new developments in social media technologies, it is especially important to understand whether travel opinion leadership and seeking are drivers...... of specific social media perceptions and behaviours. Based on an online survey of US online travellers, this paper seeks to identify travel opinion leaders and seekers and their characteristics. Further, the research conducted investigated linkages between travel opinion leadership/seeking and travel social...... media use. The findings suggest that travel opinion leadership and seeking are distinct but connected. Both opinion leaders and seekers are technology savvy, young, educated, involved in travel planning and engaged in social media use for travel. What distinguishes opinion leaders is their greater...

  9. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  10. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan E. Chamberlain

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  11. Social workers as "experts" in the family court system: is evidence-based practice a missing link or host-created knowledge?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, Dana E

    2013-10-01

    The graduate school curriculum for social workers requires that students learn to critically distinguish between opinion-based knowledge and evidence-based practices, or empirically-supported interventions. Once graduated, licensed social workers are often called upon to offer diagnostic and predictive opinions as experts in a variety of macro-environments. When the family courts are that "host" environment, social workers proffer expert opinions that may categorize and label parents or children for purposes of a judge's allocation of physical or legal custody. In this article, it is suggested that the social work profession, within all three domains of education, practice, and research, should more precisely link the design and fidelity of an evidence-based practice (EBP) with its potential misapplication or warping when proffered as science in "host" environments like family courts. As Foucault and other scholars warn, the failure to verify that an intervention is applied correctly may actually enhance the risk of social injustice by interpreting and translating EBP knowledge in the non-empirical form of authority-by-license. This article, therefore, proposes that the social work profession, from the classroom to the field, has an obligation to thoroughly understand and engage interdisciplinary practices that assure respect for the strengths and limits of social work knowledge.

  12. Public opinion polls on nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, E.D.

    1980-07-01

    Future developments in the attitude towards nuclear energy can not be predicted on account of this public opinion survey. The survey shows just how many different factors influence the attitude towards issues of public and political interst. For this reason in particular, it would be desirable to include such aspects into future surveys. The survey shows that public opinion polls quite often investigate on the ordering party's opinion rather than the pollees opinion. The attempt at making public opinion polls a means of forming political opinions, implying a certain desired opinion to be the majority opinion has brought those polls into disrepute. If real results are not required and manipulation prevails, results are prevented, which must not be blamed on the principle of public opinion polls as such. (orig.) [de

  13. Opinion Integration and Summarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yue

    2011-01-01

    As Web 2.0 applications become increasingly popular, more and more people express their opinions on the Web in various ways in real time. Such wide coverage of topics and abundance of users make the Web an extremely valuable source for mining people's opinions about all kinds of topics. However, since the opinions are usually expressed as…

  14. Study on advanced nuclear power plants expert evaluation system in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Qi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Zhou Zhiwei; Zhu Shutang; Ren Junsheng; Yang Mengjia; Gu Junyang

    2005-01-01

    Based on current status and developing trend of nuclear power plant technology, an evaluation software system is developed to assess advanced NPPs systematically according to a set of pre-established evaluation indices. The selection and classification of the indices, the determination of their weighting factors in applying AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method are discussed. The Fuzzy Comprehensive method and the Fuzzy Borda Number method are studied in detail. The original input data required by the evaluation system are deduced from the expert survey sheets Evaluation results with common significance of public attraction are discussed and analyzed according to the opinions of different experts grouped by age, profession and working expertise etc. The evaluation system is computer network based with high flexible and user friendly human-machine interface on which it is easy to manipulate and update the evaluation system, and to display evaluation results as well. (author)

  15. An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damir Dobrinić

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and investigates the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. This research focuses mainly on understanding the potential and effectiveness of the use of mobile phones as a promotional medium, but we also try to recognize the level of concern of marketing experts associated with spam, relating to privacy intrusion and ethics components in m-advertising. Privacy and ethics concerns could create resistance to the adoption of m-advertising. Media selection becomes the most critical factor for the success of a promotional and advertising marketing campaign. Croatian experts still consider TV or newspapers the best way to reach a large number of potential consumers, but what are their expectations towards mobile advertising? To answer this question, we built a model that links attitudes towards advertising via classical media to the intention to use m-advertising.

  16. The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Steven

    This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

  17. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the

  18. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  19. The use of expert judgement in decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Expert judgment (EJ) techniques and protocols have been used in different areas for more than half a century. the Nuclear Energy Division of the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), via the Risk Control Domain of the Nuclear Development and Innovation Division and the Innovative Systems Studies Service, and the Institute for Energy of JRC (Petten), via the Nuclear Safety Unit, organized a 'workshop on the use of expert judgment in decision making'. The objectives of this workshop were to create an exchange forum about this topic and to gather a first state of the art, in order to identify the needs for R and D. This workshop brought together approximately 55 participants, from different industry sectors (energy, both nuclear and non-nuclear, food and communication among others) and from universities, research organizations and technical support organizations. The workshop was divided in one opening session, four thematic sessions plus a round table and a final general discussion session. The first session was dedicated to the elicitation of expertise and the combination of opinions given by different experts. The papers in this session had more theoretical contents than most of the papers in other session. The second session was dedicated to expert knowledge management. It consisted of four papers, two of them in the area of the food industry, one of them in the area of e-business and the last one in the area of human reliability assessment (HRA) and its impact on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) calculations. The third session was dedicated to industrial applications and consisted of four papers, all of them in the area of energy production. The last session was about the use of EJ in risk analysis and decision making processes. Four papers were included in this session, EJ has been applied for a very long time in very different fields, which has brought as a consequence a broad diversity of methodologies The workshop did also show the variety of techniques

  20. Expert Recommendations on Treating Psoriasis in Special Circumstances (Part II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrascosa, J M; Galán, M; de Lucas, R; Pérez-Ferriols, A; Ribera, M; Yanguas, I

    2016-11-01

    There is insufficient information on how best to treat moderate to severe psoriasis in difficult clinical circumstances. We considered 5 areas where there is conflicting or insufficient evidence: pediatric psoriasis, risk of infection in patients being treated with biologics, psoriasis in difficult locations, biologic drug survival, and impact of disease on quality of life. Following discussion of the issues by an expert panel of dermatologists specialized in the management of psoriasis, participants answered a questionnaire survey according to the Delphi method. Consensus was reached on 66 (70.9%) of the 93 items analyzed; the experts agreed with 49 statements and disagreed with 17. It was agreed that body mass index, metabolic comorbidities, and quality of life should be monitored in children with psoriasis. The experts also agreed that the most appropriate systemic treatment for this age group was methotrexate, while the most appropriate biologic treatment was etanercept. Although it was recognized that the available evidence was inconsistent and difficult to extrapolate, the panel agreed that biologic drug survival could be increased by flexible, individualized dosing regimens, continuous treatment, and combination therapies. Finally, consensus was reached on using the Dermatology Quality of Life Index to assess treatment effectiveness and aid decision-making in clinical practice. The structured opinion of experts guides decision-making regarding aspects of clinical practice for which there is incomplete or conflicting information. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. The Complex Neutrosophic Soft Expert Relation and Its Multiple Attribute Decision-Making Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Al-Quran

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel soft computing technique, called the complex neutrosophic soft expert relation (CNSER, to evaluate the degree of interaction between two hybrid models called complex neutrosophic soft expert sets (CNSESs. CNSESs are used to represent two-dimensional data that are imprecise, uncertain, incomplete and indeterminate. Moreover, it has a mechanism to incorporate the parameter set and the opinions of all experts in one model, thus making it highly suitable for use in decision-making problems where the time factor plays a key role in determining the final decision. The complex neutrosophic soft expert set and complex neutrosophic soft expert relation are both defined. Utilizing the properties of CNSER introduced, an empirical study is conducted on the relationship between the variability of the currency exchange rate and Malaysian exports and the time frame (phase of the interaction between these two variables. This study is supported further by an algorithm to determine the type and the degree of this relationship. A comparison between different existing relations and CNSER to show the ascendancy of our proposed CNSER is provided. Then, the notion of the inverse, complement and composition of CNSERs along with some related theorems and properties are introduced. Finally, we define the symmetry, transitivity and reflexivity of CNSERs, as well as the equivalence relation and equivalence classes on CNSESs. Some interesting properties are also obtained.

  2. Energy policy decision making and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstein, L.

    1989-09-01

    By the example of nuclear the author demonstrates the interactions of short-term fluctuations on the world energy market, energy forecasts, specific events and discussions on energy policy both within political parties and in the general public, and draws conclusions which are valid beyond the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the general public's attitude towards nuclear energy shows two initial phases, i.e. euphoria and scepticism/ideology/agitation. The early eighties, then, led to a third phase - realism. Up to 1983 a consensus prevailed between the leading political parties in Germany regarding the basic energy-policy objective of minimizing the supply risk by providing for a well-balanced use of all available energy sources. The resulting attitude had a positive bearing on the public opinion: more than two thirds of the population were in favour of nuclear. In the mid-eighties, the development of nuclear was by and large completed in the Federal Republic of Germany as well as in the United States and other western industrialized countries and the capacity of nuclear power plants is considered sufficient for the years to come. In addition, abundant long-term reserves of domestic lignite and hardcoal are available: this also should have furnished a good reason to envisage calmly the issues of power supply. Instead, we are again facing emotional discussions on the acceptance of nuclear. Public opinion in the Federal Republic of Germany has changed since the Social Democrats followed the example of the Ecologists and advocated a rapid withdrawal from nuclear. In a recent poll four-fifths of the persons asked did not rule out the possibility of a major accident in a German power station. The wish to ignore today's energy supply problems by escaping into a supposedly safe but yet distant and vague future is part of every public debate. Technical and scientific issues are examined no longer in this global context. Predictions of experts and counter-experts

  3. Treatment Guidelines for Preoperative Radiation Therapy for Retroperitoneal Sarcoma: Preliminary Consensus of an International Expert Panel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldini, Elizabeth H., E-mail: ebaldini@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Wang, Dian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Haas, Rick L.M. [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Catton, Charles N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Indelicato, Daniel J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida Medical Center, Jacksonville, Florida (United States); Kirsch, David G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Roberge, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Hospitalier de l' Université de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Salerno, Kilian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York (United States); Deville, Curtiland [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins Sidney Kimmel Cancer Center, Washington, DC (United States); Guadagnolo, B. Ashleigh [Department of Radiation Oncology, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); O' Sullivan, Brian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Petersen, Ivy A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (United States); Le Pechoux, Cecile [Department of Radiotherapy, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Abrams, Ross A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); DeLaney, Thomas F. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: Evidence for external beam radiation therapy (RT) as part of treatment for retroperitoneal sarcoma (RPS) is limited. Preoperative RT is the subject of a current randomized trial, but the results will not be available for many years. In the meantime, many practitioners use preoperative RT for RPS, and although this approach is used in practice, there are no radiation treatment guidelines. An international expert panel was convened to develop consensus treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Methods and Materials: An expert panel of 15 academic radiation oncologists who specialize in the treatment of sarcoma was assembled. A systematic review of reports related to RT for RPS, RT for extremity sarcoma, and RT-related toxicities for organs at risk was performed. Due to the paucity of high-quality published data on the subject of RT for RPS, consensus recommendations were based largely on expert opinion derived from clinical experience and extrapolation of relevant published reports. It is intended that these clinical practice guidelines be updated as pertinent data become available. Results: Treatment guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS are presented. Conclusions: An international panel of radiation oncologists who specialize in sarcoma reached consensus guidelines for preoperative RT for RPS. Many of the recommendations are based on expert opinion because of the absence of higher level evidence and, thus, are best regarded as preliminary. We emphasize that the role of preoperative RT for RPS has not been proven, and we await data from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) study of preoperative radiotherapy plus surgery versus surgery alone for patients with RPS. Further data are also anticipated pertaining to normal tissue dose constraints, particularly for bowel tolerance. Nonetheless, as we await these data, the guidelines herein can be used to establish treatment uniformity to aid future assessments of efficacy

  4. [Ophthalmological opinions for liability affairs material damage (Part I) (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burggraf, H

    1979-02-01

    German law abides anyone reponsible for the damage he or she has caused to another person's property or corporal integrity. This includes all medical costs directed towards the restitution of health as well as economical damage in direct consequence of the corporal damage. An ophthalmological expert is to state his opinion therefore in accordance with the specific conditions of every individual case and not just according to general charts. Financial compensation is only granted for the actual results of damage inquestion. Prior damage and disability have to be remarked but not to justify a financial compensation. The question of smart-money is dealt with in Part II.

  5. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakala, S.; Wilson, B.

    1999-01-01

    Transparency and certainty are essential qualities for an acceptable and trusted valuation method. Based on the evaluation of the expert judgement method developed in the Delphi I study both of these criteria may be only partially accomplished by such a method. As for the technical procedure the method is well documented and transparency is good. Argumentation of the judgements, however, should be increased. The quality of the valuation indexes is explicitly available, but their certainty is very low for most interventions. The opinions of the experts differ much from each other. How much this depends on different values and how much on differences in knowledge etc. is impossible to assess. Also, how much the technique used and the statistical handling of the expert answers may have impacted the eventual scores of different interventions is difficult to assess. However, application of the expert judgement by means of the Delphi-technique to LCA valuation is a new idea, and, consequently, the method is still very much under development, far from maturity. This should be taken into account when considering the results out of the evaluation of the case study, which was the third of the kind in Europe

  6. Opinions on Fresh Produce Food Safety and Quality Standards by Fresh Produce Supply Chain Experts from the Global South and North.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Van Boxstael, Sigrid; Nanyunja, Jessica; Jordaan, Danie; Luning, Pieternel; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n = 41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n = 63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in

  7. [Medical expert consensus in AH on the clinical use of triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in Spain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazón, P; Galve, E; Gómez, J; Gorostidi, M; Górriz, J L; Mediavilla, J D

    The opinion of experts (different specialties) on the triple fixed-dose antihypertensive therapy in clinical practice may differ. Online questionnaire with controversial aspects of the triple therapy answered by panel of experts in hypertension (HT) using two-round modified Delphi method. The questionnaire was completed by 158 experts: Internal Medicine (49), Nephrology (26), Cardiology (83). Consensus was reached (agreement) on 27/45 items (60%); 7 items showed differences statistically significant. Consensus was reached regarding: Predictive factors in the need for combination therapy and its efficacy vs. increasing the dose of a pretreatment, and advantage of triple therapy (prescription/adherence/cost/pressure control) vs. free combination. This consensus provides an overview of the clinical use of triple therapy in moderate-severe and resistant/difficult to control HT. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Treating an Established Episode of Delirium in Palliative Care: Expert Opinion and Review of the Current Evidence Base With Recommendations for Future Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, José L.; Davis, Daniel H.J.; Currow, David C.; Meagher, David; Rabheru, Kiran; Wright, David; Bruera, Eduardo; Hartwick, Michael; Gagnon, Pierre R.; Gagnon, Bruno; Breitbart, William; Regnier, Laura; Lawlor, Peter G.

    2014-01-01

    Context Delirium is a highly prevalent complication in patients in palliative care settings, especially in the end-of-life context. Objectives To review the current evidence base for treating episodes of delirium in palliative care settings and propose a framework for future development. Methods We combined multidisciplinary input from delirium researchers and other purposely selected stakeholders at an international delirium study planning meeting. This was supplemented by a literature search of multiple databases and relevant reference lists to identify studies regarding therapeutic interventions for delirium. Results The context of delirium management in palliative care is highly variable. The standard management of a delirium episode includes the investigation of precipitating and aggravating factors followed by symptomatic treatment with drug therapy. However, the intensity of this management depends on illness trajectory and goals of care in addition to the local availability of both investigative modalities and therapeutic interventions. Pharmacologically, haloperidol remains the practice standard by consensus for symptomatic control. Dosing schedules are derived from expert opinion and various clinical practice guidelines as evidence-based data from palliative care settings are limited. The commonly used pharmacologic interventions for delirium in this population warrant evaluation in clinical trials to examine dosing and titration regimens, different routes of administration, and safety and efficacy compared with placebo. Conclusion Delirium treatment is multidimensional and includes the identification of precipitating and aggravating factors. For symptomatic management, haloperidol remains the practice standard. Further high-quality collaborative research investigating the appropriate treatment of this complex syndrome is needed. PMID:24480529

  9. Spallation Neutron Source Availability Top-Down Apportionment Using Characteristic Factors and Expert Opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haire, M.J.; Schryver, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    Apportionment is the assignment of top-level requirements to lower tier elements of the overall facility. A method for apportioning overall facility availability requirements among systems and subsystems is presented. Characteristics that influence equipment reliability and maintainability are discussed. Experts, using engineering judgment, scored each characteristic for each system whose availability design goal is to be established. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to produce a set of weighted rankings for each characteristic for each alternative system. A mathematical model is derived which incorporates these weighting factors. The method imposes higher availability requirements on those systems in which an incremental increase in availability is easier to achieve, and lower availability requirements where greater availability is more difficult and costly. An example is given of applying this top-down apportionment methodology to the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) facility

  10. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  11. TOOL: The Open Opinion Layer

    OpenAIRE

    Masum, Hassan

    2002-01-01

    Shared opinions drive society: what we read, how we vote, and where we shop are all heavily influenced by the choices of others. However, the cost in time and money to systematically share opinions remains high, while the actual performance history of opinion generators is often not tracked. This article explores the development of a distributed open opinion layer, which is given the generic name of TOOL. Similar to the evolution of network protocols as an underlying layer for many comput...

  12. 'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog-Evans, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. IRSN 2011 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on nuclear and radiological risks. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (the main concerns in the present society and with respect to the environment, how science is considered). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (who should control a hazardous installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist bodies). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 33 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence in authorities, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of 33 situations and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear issue (nuclear risk, ability and credibility of nuclear actors, the Chernobyl accident, radioactive wastes, demand of information on the nuclear risk).

  14. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Dadgar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

  15. Expert opinions on good practice in evaluation of health promotion and primary prevention measures related to children and adolescents in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korber, Katharina; Becker, Christian

    2017-10-02

    Determining what constitutes "good practice" in the measurement of the costs and effects of health promotion and disease prevention measures is of particular importance. The aim of this paper was to gather expert knowledge on (economic) evaluations of health promotion and prevention measures for children and adolescents, especially on the practical importance, the determinants of project success, meaningful parameters for evaluations, and supporting factors, but also on problems in their implementation. This information is targeted at people responsible for the development of primary prevention or health promotion programs. Partially structured open interviews were conducted by two interviewers and transcribed, paraphrased, and summarized for further use. Eight experts took part in the interviews. The interviewed experts saw evaluation as a useful tool to establish the effects of prevention programs, to inform program improvement and further development, and to provide arguments to decision making. The respondents' thought that determinants of a program's success were effectiveness with evidence of causality, cost benefit relation, target-group reach and sustainability. It was considered important that hard and soft factors were included in an evaluation; costs were mentioned only by one expert. According to the experts, obstacles to evaluation were lacking resources, additional labor requirements, and the evaluators' unfamiliarity with a program's contents. It was recommended to consider evaluation design before a program is launched, to co-operate with people involved in a program and to make use of existing structures. While in in this study only a partial view of expert knowledge is represented, it could show important points to consider when developing evaluations of prevention programs. By considering these points, researchers could further advance towards a more comprehensive approach of evaluation targeting measures in children and adolescents.

  16. Lymphedema and employability - Review and results of a survey of Austrian experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neubauer, Markus; Schoberwalter, Dieter; Cenik, Fadime; Keilani, Mohammad; Crevenna, Richard

    2017-03-01

    Literature about lymphedema and its influence on the ability to work and employability is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the opinion of Austrian experts on factors influencing the ability to work and employability in patients suffering from lymphedema. A self-administered questionnaire consisting of 6 questions was sent to 12 Austrian lymphedema experts with 6 different specializations from May to August 2016. These experts were asked about suitable and unsuitable professions, the possible influence of lymphedema on the ability to work and employability as well as about existing and additional measures to improve the return to work. The reply rate was 100% (12 out of 12). All experts agreed that lymphedema can restrict the ability to work and employability. The leading reason for limited ability to work and employability was restricted mobility or function of the affected limb along with time-consuming therapeutic modalities, pain and psychological stress. The most suitable job named was teacher and the most unsuitable job named was cook. As easements for return to work, early rehabilitation, self-management, coping strategies, patient education, employer's goodwill and employer's cooperation were reported. Furthermore, experts stressed the need for an adjustment of the legal framework as well as low-barrier and more therapy offers. Adjusted work demands seem to be of greater importance to support the ability to work and employability than recommendations for specific job profiles alone. Experts suggest an adjustment of the legal framework for affected patients, claiming a right for early rehabilitation as well as for life-long therapy. Even though some clinically useful conclusions may be drawn from this article, further research in the field is warranted.

  17. Substitution of Assisted Living Services by Assistive Technology - Experts Opinions and Technical Feasibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartze, Jonas; Prekazi, Arianit; Schrom, Harald; Marschollek, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Ambient assisted living (AAL) may support ageing in place but is primarily driven by technology. The aim of this work is, to identifying reasons to move into assisted living institutions, their range of service and possible substitutability. We did semi-structured interviews with five experts from assisted living institutions and used results to design and implement assistive technologies in an AAL environment using BASIS, a cross domain bus system for smart buildings. Reasons for moving to assisted living institutions are expected benefits for chronic health problems, safety, social isolation and carefree living. We implemented six application systems for inactivity monitoring, stove shutdown, air quality monitoring, medication and appointment reminders, detection of unwanted situations before leaving and optical ringing of the doorbell. Substitution of selected assisted living services is feasible and has potential to delay necessity to move into assisted living institution if complement social services are installed.

  18. Opinion competition dynamics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, R.; Kouvaris, N. E.; San Miguel, M.; Díaz-Guilera, A.

    2017-12-01

    Multilayer and multiplex networks represent a good proxy for the description of social phenomena where social structure is important and can have different origins. Here, we propose a model of opinion competition where individuals are organized according to two different structures in two layers. Agents exchange opinions according to the Abrams-Strogatz model in each layer separately and opinions can be copied across layers by the same individual. In each layer a different opinion is dominant, so each layer has a different absorbing state. Consensus in one opinion is not the only possible stable solution because of the interaction between the two layers. A new mean field solution has been found where both opinions coexist. In a finite system there is a long transient time for the dynamical coexistence of both opinions. However, the system ends in a consensus state due to finite size effects. We analyze sparse topologies in the two layers and the existence of positive correlations between them, which enables the coexistence of inter-layer groups of agents sharing the same opinion.

  19. Competing opinion diffusion on social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Haibo

    2017-11-01

    Opinion competition is a common phenomenon in real life, such as with opinions on controversial issues or political candidates; however, modelling this competition remains largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose a model of competing opinion diffusion on social networks taking into account degree-dependent fitness or persuasiveness. We study the combined influence of social networks, individual fitnesses and attributes, as well as mass media on people's opinions, and find that both social networks and mass media act as amplifiers in opinion diffusion, the amplifying effect of which can be quantitatively characterized. We analytically obtain the probability that each opinion will ultimately pervade the whole society when there are no committed people in networks, and the final proportion of each opinion at the steady state when there are committed people in networks. The results of numerical simulations show good agreement with those obtained through an analytical approach. This study provides insight into the collective influence of individual attributes, local social networks and global media on opinion diffusion, and contributes to a comprehensive understanding of competing diffusion behaviours in the real world.

  20. Communication skills training in oncology: a position paper based on a consensus meeting among European experts in 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiefel, F; Barth, J; Bensing, J; Fallowfield, L; Jost, L; Razavi, D; Kiss, A

    2010-02-01

    Communication in cancer care has become a major topic of interest. Since there is evidence that ineffective communication affects both patients and oncology clinicians (physicians and nurses), so-called communication skills trainings (CSTs) have been developed over the last decade. While these trainings have been demonstrated to be effective, there is an important heterogeneity with regard to implementation and with regard to evidence of different aspects of CST. In order to review and discuss the scientific literature on CST in oncology and to formulate recommendations, the Swiss Cancer League has organised a consensus meeting with European opinion leaders and experts in the field of CST, as well as oncology clinicians, representatives of oncology societies and patient organisations. On the basis of a systematic review and a meta-analysis, recommendations have been developed and agreed upon. Recommendations address (i) the setting, objectives and participants of CST, (ii) its content and pedagogic tools, (iii) organisational aspects, (iv) outcome and (v) future directions and research. This consensus meeting, on the basis of European expert opinions and a systematic review and meta-analysis, defines key elements for the current provision and future development and evaluation of CST in oncology.

  1. A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

    2018-02-01

    The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

  2. Non-consensus Opinion Models on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Wang, Huijuan; Shao, Jia; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2013-04-01

    Social dynamic opinion models have been widely studied to understand how interactions among individuals cause opinions to evolve. Most opinion models that utilize spin interaction models usually produce a consensus steady state in which only one opinion exists. Because in reality different opinions usually coexist, we focus on non-consensus opinion models in which above a certain threshold two opinions coexist in a stable relationship. We revisit and extend the non-consensus opinion (NCO) model introduced by Shao et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 103:01870, 2009). The NCO model in random networks displays a second order phase transition that belongs to regular mean field percolation and is characterized by the appearance (above a certain threshold) of a large spanning cluster of the minority opinion. We generalize the NCO model by adding a weight factor W to each individual's original opinion when determining their future opinion (NCO W model). We find that as W increases the minority opinion holders tend to form stable clusters with a smaller initial minority fraction than in the NCO model. We also revisit another non-consensus opinion model based on the NCO model, the inflexible contrarian opinion (ICO) model (Li et al. in Phys. Rev. E 84:066101, 2011), which introduces inflexible contrarians to model the competition between two opinions in a steady state. Inflexible contrarians are individuals that never change their original opinion but may influence the opinions of others. To place the inflexible contrarians in the ICO model we use two different strategies, random placement and one in which high-degree nodes are targeted. The inflexible contrarians effectively decrease the size of the largest rival-opinion cluster in both strategies, but the effect is more pronounced under the targeted method. All of the above models have previously been explored in terms of a single network, but human communities are usually interconnected, not isolated. Because opinions propagate not

  3. Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Beheshti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

  4. Desirability and feasibility of sustainable urban transport systems. An expert-based strategic scenario approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nijkamp, P.; Ouwersloot, H.; Rienstra, S.A. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-09-01

    Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from sustainability and that major changes are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. Main problems may occur in urban transport, where not many promising solutions are expected, while the problems are severe. In view of the great number of uncertainties, we will in our paper resort to scenarios. In the paper, expert scenarios, which lead to a sustainable transport system are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts - both average scenarios and scenarios of segments of the respondents - which have been investigated by means of a survey. The expected scenarios indicate that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenarios on the other hand, suggest the emergence and the need for a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. In the paper the resulting urban transport systems are also discussed. By calculating the CO2 emissions in the average expected and desired scenario, it appears that the expected scenario does not lead to a large scale reduction of those emissions; the desired scenario however, may lead to a large scale reduction of the emissions. The conclusion is that the differences in expert opinion are small and that the road towards a sustainable (urban) transport system is still far away, although the compact city concept may perhaps offer some solution. 6 figs., 2 tabs., 18 refs.

  5. Fashion clothing involvement, opinion leadership and opinion seeking amongst black generation Y students / Pulaki Joseph Tshabalala

    OpenAIRE

    Tshabalala, Pulaki Joseph

    2014-01-01

    Opinion leadership and opinion seeking are central constructs in academic studies of new product innovations. Fashion opinion leaders as those individuals who accelerate the fashion maturity process by legitimising a fashionable trend and influence other consumers to adopt the new innovative style as a replacement for the current accepted one. Consumers who accept information and adopt new style innovations are called opinion seekers and are important to the diffusion of new fashions because ...

  6. Recurrent issues in efforts to prevent homicidal youth violence in schools: expert opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Karen E; Redding, Richard E; Smith, Peter K; Surette, Ray; Cornell, Dewey G

    2011-01-01

    Developmental research on social influences on adolescents can guide practices aimed to prevent homicidal youth violence. School shootings have repeatedly raised questions about the contributory role of bullying and entertainment violence, how news media publicity might produce copycat crimes, and whether stiffer criminal sanctions might have a deterrent effect. This article presents the thoughts and recommendations of a group of experts on these topics summarizing the current knowledge base. In brief, bullying reduction programs may be a useful early prevention effort. Television and video games with violent themes can encourage aggressive behavior, but these media can be used to teach more prosocial behavior as well. The potential copycat effects of highly publicized crimes might be diminished with more restrained reporting, although more research is needed. Finally, there is substantial evidence that increased criminal sanctions for youthful offenders have not had a deterrent effect. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  7. The Desired Learning Outcomes of School-Based Nutrition/Physical Activity Health Education: A Health Literacy Constructed Delphi Survey of Finnish Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormshaw, Michael James; Kokko, Sami Petteri; Villberg, Jari; Kannas, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to utilise the collective opinion of a group of Finnish experts to identify the most important learning outcomes of secondary-level school-based health education, in the specific domains of physical activity and nutrition. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The study uses a Delphi survey technique to collect the…

  8. Strategies for the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents : Expert opinions from a Delphi study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogel, I.; Brug, J.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Raat, H.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. To identify parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents and potentially effective prevention strategies and interventions. METHODS. Thirty experts in fields such as scientific research, medical practice, community health professions, education, youth

  9. Scientific Opinion on the re-evaluation of carnauba wax (E 903) as a food additive

    OpenAIRE

    EFSA Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS)

    2012-01-01

    The Panel on Food Additives and Nutrient Sources added to Food (ANS) delivers a scientific opinion re-evaluating the safety of carnauba wax (E 903). Carnauba wax (E 903) is authorised in the EU as food additive as glazing agent. It has been evaluated by the Scientific Committee on Food (SCF) and by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) who allocated an Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 7 mg/kg bw/day. The SCF did not establish an ADI but considered the use of ca...

  10. Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torre-Alonso, Juan Carlos; Carmona, Loreto; Moreno, Mireia; Galíndez, Eva; Babío, Jesús; Zarco, Pedro; Linares, Luis; Collantes-Estevez, Eduardo; Barrial, Manuel Fernández; Hermosa, Juan Carlos; Coto, Pablo; Suárez, Carmen; Almodóvar, Raquel; Luelmo, Jesús; Castañeda, Santos; Gratacós, Jordi

    2017-08-01

    The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

  11. Experts reviews of the multidisciplinary consensus conference colon and rectal cancer 2012: science, opinions and experiences from the experts of surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Velde, C J H; Boelens, P G; Tanis, P J; Espin, E; Mroczkowski, P; Naredi, P; Pahlman, L; Ortiz, H; Rutten, H J; Breugom, A J; Smith, J J; Wibe, A; Wiggers, T; Valentini, V

    2014-04-01

    The first multidisciplinary consensus conference on colon and rectal cancer was held in December 2012, achieving a majority of consensus for diagnostic and treatment decisions using the Delphi Method. This article will give a critical appraisal of the topics discussed during the meeting and in the consensus document by well-known leaders in surgery that were involved in this multidisciplinary consensus process. Scientific evidence, experience and opinions are collected to support multidisciplinary teams (MDT) with arguments for medical decision-making in diagnosis, staging and treatment strategies for patients with colon or rectal cancer. Surgery is the cornerstone of curative treatment for colon and rectal cancer. Standardizing treatment is an effective instrument to improve outcome of multidisciplinary cancer care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. In this article, a review of the following focuses; Perioperative care, age and colorectal surgery, obstructive colorectal cancer, stenting, surgical anatomical considerations, total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery and training, surgical considerations for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and local recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC), surgery in stage IV colorectal cancer, definitions of quality of surgery, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM), laparoscopic colon and rectal surgery, preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy, and how about functional outcome after surgery? Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Adaptation and Validation of the Brief Sexual Opinion Survey (SOS) in a Colombian Sample and Factorial Equivalence with the Spanish Version

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Juan Carlos; Soler, Franklin

    2016-01-01

    Attitudes toward sexuality are a key variable for sexual health. It is really important for psychology and education to have adapted and validated questionnaires to evaluate these attitudes. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adapt, validate and calculate the equivalence of the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey as compared to the same survey from Spain. To this end, a total of eight experts were consulted and 1,167 subjects from Colombia and Spain answered the Sexual Opinion Survey, the Sexual Assertiveness Scale, the Massachusetts General Hospital-Sexual Functioning Questionnaire, and the Sexuality Scale. The evaluation was conducted by online and the results show adequate qualitative and quantitative properties of the items, with adequate reliability and external validity and compliance with the strong invariance between the two countries. Consequently, the Colombia Sexual Opinion Survey is a valid and reliable scale and its scores can be compared with the ones from the Spain survey, with minimum bias. PMID:27627114

  13. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  14. Board composition and firm reputation: The role of business experts, support specialists and community influentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma García-Meca

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of board resource diversity on firm reputation. We classify board members as business experts, support specialists, political directors and other community influentials, in an effort to address whether business, technical expertise or political ties in the boardroom affect stakeholders’ opinion and, therefore, firm reputation.This study confirms that not all outside directors are equally effective in improving firm reputation, and that certain kinds of outside directors, especially business experts, help increase it. However, the findings note an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship with these directors, which means that the effect of business experts on reputation is positive up to a point, after which the relationship becomes negative. The findings also evidence that, contrary to popular beliefs, directors with previous experience as politicians are not negatively viewed by stakeholders. Moreover, this type of community influential directors has positive effects on firm reputation in regulated firms as well as in those of the public work sector. JEL classification: G30, Keywords: Reputation, Board, Expertise, Corporate governance, Directors

  15. Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

    2017-06-01

    There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  17. Public opinions and antinuclear contestations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, P.R.N. da

    1978-01-01

    With the aim of demonstrating the importance of public opinion in the development of a nuclear program, a historical analysis of the different forms of anti-technological reactions is shown, starting with a study of the general aspects of mass communication and public opinion. The world-wide communication strategy adopted in the implantation of nuclear programs is discussed and, finally, the nuclear energy issue and public opinion in Brazil are analysed. (F.E.) [pt

  18. Seeking a second medical opinion: composition, reasons and perceived outcomes in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shmueli, Liora; Davidovitch, Nadav; Pliskin, Joseph S; Balicer, Ran D; Hekselman, Igal; Greenfield, Geva

    2017-12-08

    Seeking a second-opinion (SO) is a common clinical practice that can optimize treatment and reduce unnecessary procedures and risks. We aim to characterize the composition of the population of SO seekers, their reasons for seeking a SO and choosing a specific physician, and their perceived outcomes following the SO. A cross-sectional national telephone survey, using a representative sample of the general Israeli population (n = 848, response rate = 62%). SO utilization was defined as seeking an additional clinical opinion from a specialist within the same specialty, for the same medical concern. We describe the characteristics of respondents who obtained SOs, their reasons for doing so and their perceived outcomes: (1) Satisfaction with the SO; (2) Experiencing health improvement after receiving a SO; (3) A difference in the diagnosis or treatment suggested in the first opinions and the second opinions; (4) Preference of the SO over the first one. Most of the respondents who sought a SO (n = 344) were above 60 years old, secular, living with a partner, perceived their income to be above average and their health status to be not so good. For the patients who utilized SOs, orthopedic surgeons were sought out more than any other medical professional.Reasons for seeking a SO included doubts about diagnosis or treatment (38%), search for a sub-specialty expert (19%) and dissatisfaction with communication (19%). SO seekers most frequently chose a specific specialist based on a recommendation from a friend or a relative (33%). About half of the SO seekers also searched for information on the internet. Most of the respondents who sought a SO mentioned that they were satisfied with it (84%), felt health improvement (77%), mentioned that there was a difference between the diagnosis or treatment between the first opinion and the SO (56%) and preferred the SO over the first one (91%). Clinical uncertainty or dissatisfaction with patient-physician communication

  19. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

  20. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  1. Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armen E Allahverdyan

    Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

  2. Patients' reflections on communication in the second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Roberta E; Sullivan, Amy; Back, Anthony L; Alexander, Stewart C; Matsuyama, Robin K; Lee, Stephanie J

    2009-07-01

    The nature of communication between patients and their second-opinion hematology consultants may be very different in these one-time consultations than for those that are within long-term relationships. This study explored patients' perceptions of their second-opinion hematology-oncology consultation to investigate physician-patient communication in malignant disease at a critical juncture in cancer patients' care and decision-making. In-depth telephone interviews with a subset of 20 patients from a larger study, following their subspecialty hematology consultations. Most patients wanted to contribute to the consultation agenda, but were unable to do so. Patients sought expert and honest advice delivered with empathy, though most did not expect the consultant to directly address their emotions. They wanted the physician to apply his/her knowledge to the specifics of their individual cases, and were disappointed and distrustful when physicians cited only general prognostic statistics. In contrast, physicians' consideration of the unique elements of patients' cases, and demonstrations of empathy and respect made patients' feel positively about the encounter, regardless of the prognosis. Patients provided concrete recommendations for physician and patient behaviors to enhance the consultation. Consideration of these recommendations may result in more effective communication and increased patient satisfaction with medical visits.

  3. OpinionSeer: interactive visualization of hotel customer feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingcai; Wei, Furu; Liu, Shixia; Au, Norman; Cui, Weiwei; Zhou, Hong; Qu, Huamin

    2010-01-01

    The rapid development of Web technology has resulted in an increasing number of hotel customers sharing their opinions on the hotel services. Effective visual analysis of online customer opinions is needed, as it has a significant impact on building a successful business. In this paper, we present OpinionSeer, an interactive visualization system that could visually analyze a large collection of online hotel customer reviews. The system is built on a new visualization-centric opinion mining technique that considers uncertainty for faithfully modeling and analyzing customer opinions. A new visual representation is developed to convey customer opinions by augmenting well-established scatterplots and radial visualization. To provide multiple-level exploration, we introduce subjective logic to handle and organize subjective opinions with degrees of uncertainty. Several case studies illustrate the effectiveness and usefulness of OpinionSeer on analyzing relationships among multiple data dimensions and comparing opinions of different groups. Aside from data on hotel customer feedback, OpinionSeer could also be applied to visually analyze customer opinions on other products or services.

  4. Environmental problems: the expert opinions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The environmental problems constitute one of the questions the most complicated which sets up to modern societies. Indeed, their reasons are multiple and their consequences are not always known with certainty. Several scientific contributions are given in this book on the following fields: the stratospheric ozone, the oceans pollution, the industrial and municipal wastes, the urbanization, the transports, the civil nuclear, the greenhouse effect, the air pollution, the water pollution and the main industrial accidents. Only the five last points are detailed later on. (O.L.). refs., tabs

  5. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  6. Attitudes of Agricultural Experts Toward Genetically Modified Crops: A Case Study in Southwest Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanian, Mansour; Ghoochani, Omid M; Kitterlin, Miranda; Jahangiry, Sheida; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Van Passel, Steven; Azadi, Hossein

    2016-04-01

    The production of genetically modified (GM) crops is growing around the world, and with it possible opportunities to combat food insecurity and hunger, as well as solutions to current problems facing conventional agriculture. In this regard the use of GMOs in food and agricultural applications has increased greatly over the past decade. However, the development of GM crops has been a matter of considerable interest and worldwide public controversy. This, in addition to skepticism, has stifled the use of this practice on a large scale in many areas, including Iran. It stands to reason that a greater understanding of this practice could be formed after a review of the existing expert opinions surrounding GM crops. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the predictors that influence agricultural experts' attitudes toward the development of and policies related to GM crops. Using a descriptive correlational research method, questionnaire data was collected from 65 experts from the Agricultural Organization in the Gotvand district in Southwest Iran. Results indicated that agricultural experts were aware of the environmental benefits and possible risks associated with GM crops. The majority of participants agreed that GM crops could improve food security and accelerate rural development, and were proponents of labeling practices for GM crops. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the perception of benefits and attitudes towards GM crops.

  7. Opinion formation models on a gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael T Gastner

    Full Text Available Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales proportional g(-1/4, not proportional g(-4/7 as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation.

  8. Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

    1982-05-01

    This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

  9. IRSN 2014 opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2014-06-01

    A first and synthetic part of this report comments the most remarkable results of the opinion survey. It first addresses results related to a context of economic crisis (importance of the economic crisis and unemployment as major concerns for French people, environmental concerns) and then analyzes the different aspects of the nuclear risk, from the accident to nuclear safety: strong fears of a nuclear accident, Fukushima and Chernobyl are immediately present in people's mind, concerns about nuclear are also related to the environment and health, the actual benefit of nuclear is an economic one, nuclear safety is a major challenge on which French people doubt, French people wish a citizen look on nuclear safety, the opinion of French people on nuclear worsened in 2013. Then, this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to 3 aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: expectations in terms of nuclear risk management, fear of a serious accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, skill and credibility of interveners. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

  10. Application of Delphi expert panel in joint venture projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adnan, H.; Rosman, M. R.; Rashid, Z. Z. Ahmad; Mohamad Yusuwan, N.; Bakhary, N. A.

    2018-02-01

    This study was conducted with the aim to identify the application of the Delphi Technique in validating findings obtained from questionnaire surveys and interviews done in- depth on the subject of joint venture projects in Malaysia. The Delphi technique aims to achieve a consensus of opinion amongst expert panellist that were selected on the primary factors in JV projects. To achieve research objectives, a progressive series of questions was designed where a selected panel of expert to confirm and validate the final findings. The rationale, benefits, limitations and recommendations for the use of Delphi were given in this study. From the literature review done, twenty-one factors were identified as critical factors to the making any joint venture project successful. Detail information from contractors were obtained by using the questionnaire survey method and forty-three in-depth interviews were carried out. Trust between partners, mutual understanding, partner selection criteria, agreement of contract, objective compatibility, conflict, and commitment were confirmed by the Delphi panel to be the critical success factors besides another fourteen factors which were found to be the Failure Reduction Criteria. Delphi techniques has proven to successfully assist in recognising the main factors and would be beneficial in supplementing the success of joint venture arrangements application for construction projects in Malaysia.

  11. Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wight, L.H.

    1980-05-01

    Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue.

  13. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wight, L.H.

    1980-05-01

    Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue

  14. The Quality of Life of High-Skilled Employees in Hungary. The Experts' Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA LEOVARIDIS

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to provide an overview of the working conditions of high-skilled employees in Hungary, by resorting to comparisons with the other Central and Eastern European countries, based on research carried out by the author during a three-month placement (August 1st-October 31st 2011 at the Institute of Sociology of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. This work combines several sources and methods for gathering information: theoretical documentation, secondary analysis of data, in-depth interviews with some experts in the field. The study results indicate the presence, for the knowledge workers in Hungary, of some common problems of this category of employees in all former communist countries, such as number of working hours per week more than EU average, low rate of participation in training, problems health such as stress, depression, heart disease etc., employees' complaints related to overworking associated with low wages in the public sector and with rigid hierarchy, lack of work-life balance, standards imposed by the parent company etc. in some multinational firms; cases of good practice appear at the micro level, mainly in Scandinavian capital firms or in companies in the IT sector.

  15. Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion ph and variation proportion pv are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve pv+2 ph=2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

  16. Survey Methods, Traditional, Public Opinion Polling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmelund-Præstekær, Christian; Hopmann, David Nicolas; Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2017-01-01

    Traditional public opinion polls are surveys in which a random sample of a given population is asked questions about their attitudes, knowledge, or behavior. If conducted properly, the answers from such surveys are approximately representative of the entire population. Traditional public opinion...... polling is typically based on four different methods of data gathering, or combinations hereof: face-to-face, postal surveys, phone surveys, and web surveys. Given that opinion polls are based on a sample, we cannot be sure that the sample reflects public opinion perfectly, however—even if randomness...... is perfect. Moreover, responses may be highly dependent on the contextual information provided with the question. Also, it may be difficult to capture past or complex causes of attitudes or behavior. In short, surveys are a precise way of measuring public opinion, but they do not come without challenges....

  17. Formulation and communication of evaluative forensic science expert opinion-A GHEP-ISFG contribution to the establishment of standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amorim, António; Crespillo, Manuel; Luque, Juan A; Prieto, Lourdes; Garcia, Oscar; Gusmão, Leonor; Aler, Mercedes; Barrio, Pedro A; Saragoni, Victor G; Pinto, Nadia

    2016-11-01

    Communicating and interpreting genetic evidence in the administration of justice is currently a matter of great concern, due to the theoretical and technical complexity of the evaluative reporting and large difference in expertise between forensic experts and law professionals. A large number of initiatives have been taken trying to bridge this gap, contributing to the education of both parties. Results however have not been very encouraging, as most of these initiatives try to cope globally with the problem, addressing simultaneously theoretical and technical approaches which are in a quite heterogeneous state of development and validation. In consequence, the extension and complexity of the resulting documents disheartens their study by professionals (both jurists and geneticists) and makes a consensus very hard to reach even among the genetic experts' community. Here we propose a 'back-to-basics', example-driven approach, in which a model report for the two most common situations faced by forensic laboratories is presented. We do hope that this strategy will provide a solid basis for a stepwise generalisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The learning continuum of ecology based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramesti, Indah Cahaya; Subali, Bambang

    2017-08-01

    This study aims at designing learning continuum for developing a curriculum based on teachers' opinion about student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material on ecological aspect targeted for students of Primary and Secondary Education. This research is a descriptive research using survey methods. The researchers conducted a census by distributing questionnaires that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements to 147 natural science teachers at junior high school and 134 Biology teachers at senior high school as a population throughout 4 regencies and 1 city in Yogyakarta Special Region.. Data analysis techniques used descriptive analysis. In conclusion, teacher's opinion is influenced by curriculum that exist today. According to the opinions of Natural Science teachers at Junior High School, most of the ecological aspects such as characteristics of biomes, characteristics of ecosystems, characteristics of communities, characteristics of populations, etc. should be taught in grade VII with the level of competence: to understand (C2), while Biology teachers at Senior High School state that the ecological aspect should be taught in class X with the level of competence: to understand (C2), apply (C3) and analyze (C4). Teachers should be a privy in the formulation of the curriculum, so they're not only accept and apply the existing curriculum but also give opinions to improve the curriculum, especially in terms of ecology.

  19. Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

  20. Opinion Change: Information or Partisanship?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Mogens K.; Klemmensen, Robert; Leavitt, Thomas

    Currently two paradigms seek to explain how voters change their opinion when they are confronted with new information. One school argues that voters are bayesian updaters who rationally change their opinion. Another school argues that voters are inherently biased in their evaluation of new...... information. According to this line of thought voters are more likely to accept information that con_rms their opinion compared to information that contradict their point of view. Using a quasi experiment we investigate the extent to which voters rely on bayesian updating or on motivated reasoning when...

  1. Opinion Summarizationof CustomerComments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Miao; Wu, Guoshi

    Web 2.0 technologies have enabled more and more customers to freely comment on different kinds of entities, such as sellers, products and services. The large scale of information poses the need and challenge of automatic summarization. In many cases, each of the user-generated short comments implies the opinions which rate the target entity. In this paper, we aim to mine and to summarize all the customer comments of a product. The algorithm proposed in this researchis more reliable on opinion identification because it is unsupervised and the accuracy of the result improves as the number of comments increases. Our research is performed in four steps: (1) mining the frequent aspects of a product that have been commented on by customers; (2) mining the infrequent aspects of a product which have been commented by customers (3) identifying opinion words in each comment and deciding whether each opinion word is positive, negative or neutral; (4) summarizing the comments. This paper proposes several novel techniques to perform these tasks. Our experimental results using comments of a number of products sold online demonstrate the effectiveness of the techniques.

  2. IRSN 2017 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

    2017-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, fear of a severe accident, attention given by French people to nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector

  3. IRSN 2016 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Charron, Sylvie; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-francois

    2016-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and the perception of pluralistic structures). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector, fear of serious nuclear accidents, perception of the two main nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011)

  4. IRSN opinion survey - The perception of risks and security by the French population. Global results June 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-06-01

    After having commented the most remarkable results (importance of the economic crisis as a major concern for French people before environmental concerns, an improved perception of industrial risks, the Fukushima accident is fading away but specific traces remain, expectations regarding nuclear energy), this report, illustrated by several graphs, presents and discusses the results of an annual opinion survey on the present concerns of French people (in the present society, for the environment, and as far as science is concerned), the opinion of French people on expertise (about who must control a risky installation, about the role and image of scientific experts, about the diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and about the perception of pluralistic structures), on the attitude of French people in front of 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed to, confidence of French people in authorities to protect them, the truth of information on hazards, the hierarchy of 33 situations according to three aspects and their relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses more particularly the nuclear sector: nuclear risk, ability and credibility of interveners, debate on energy transition. A last part addresses the perception of the Fukushima accident. Graphs notably present the evolution of opinions with respect to last year or over the past years

  5. European Food Safety Authority; Outcome of the Public consultation on the Draft Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition, and Allergies (NDA) on principles for deriving and applying Dietary Reference Values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tetens, Inge

    consultation and outlines how these were taken into account in the final opinion. EFSA had received 38 contributions from 12 interested parties (individuals, non-governmental organisations, industry organisations, academia and national assessment bodies). After a meeting with national experts on Dietary...

  6. International survey on the management of Chiari 1 malformation and syringomyelia: evolving worldwide opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singhal, Ash; Cheong, Alexander; Steinbok, Paul

    2018-03-12

    In 2003, pediatric neurosurgeons were surveyed under the auspices of the education committee of the International Society for Pediatric Neurosurgery (ISPN) to determine prevailing opinions regarding the management of Chiari I malformation (C1M) with and without associated syringomyelia. In the ensuing years, there has been further information from multiple C1M studies, with regards to indications, success rates of different surgical interventions, and complications. The purpose of this study was to re-evaluate current opinions and practices in pediatric C1M. Pediatric neurosurgeons worldwide were surveyed, using an e-mail list provided by the ISPN communication committee chairperson. Respondents were given scenarios similar to the 2003 C1M survey in order to determine opinions regarding whether to surgically intervene, and if so, with which operations. Of 300 surveys electronically distributed, 122 responses were received (40.6% response rate)-an improvement over the 30.8% response rate in 2003. Pediatric neurosurgeons from 34 different countries responded. There was broad consensus that non-operative management is appropriate in asymptomatic C1M (> 90%) as well as asymptomatic C1M with a small syrinx (> 65%). With a large syrinx, a majority (almost 80%) recommended surgical intervention. Scoliotic patients with CIM were generally offered surgery only when there was a large syrinx. There has been a shift in the surgical management over the past decade, with a bone-only decompression now being offered more commonly. There remains, however, great variability in the operation offered. This survey, with a relatively strong response rate, and with broad geographic representation, summarizes current worldwide expert opinion regarding management of pediatric C1M. Asymptomatic C1M and C1M with a small syrinx are generally managed non-operatively. When an operation is indicated, there has been a shift towards less invasive surgical approaches.

  7. Elite Repudiation of the R-Word and Public Opinion About Intellectual Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyle, Monique L; Simplican, Stacy Clifford

    2015-06-01

    Part of the motivation for encouraging elite stakeholders—like governments, professionals, and advocacy groups—to replace the language of "mental retardation" with "intellectual disability" (ID) is the belief that elite endorsement could undermine negative attitudes and influence the public to follow suit. We examine the veracity of this expectation empirically with an experiment that exposed individuals to information about endorsements of the terminology change made by the federal government, Special Olympics, or professional psychologists. We subsequently measured attitudes about persons with ID and the language used to describe ID. Results indicate that exposure to information about elite endorsement of the terminological shift either exacerbated negative attitudes or had no effect, suggesting that other factors may have primacy over "expert" opinion.

  8. A Self-Categorization Explanation for Opinion Consensus Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.

    2013-01-01

    The public expression of opinions (and related communicative activities) hinges upon the perception of opinion consensus. Current explanations for opinion consensus perceptions typically focus on egocentric and other biases, rather than functional cognitions. Using self-categorization theory we showed that opinion consensus perceptions flow from…

  9. Treatment of Liver Tumors with Lipiodol TACE: Technical Recommendations from Experts Opinion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baere, Thierry de, E-mail: thierry.debaere@gustaveroussy.fr [Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France); Arai, Yasuaki, E-mail: arai-y3111@mvh.biglobe.ne.jp [National Cancer Center, Department of Diagnostic Radiology (Japan); Lencioni, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.lencioni@med.unipi.it [Pisa University School of Medicine, Division of Diagnostic Imaging and Intervention (R.L.) (Italy); Geschwind, Jean-Francois, E-mail: jfg@jhmi.edu [The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Vascular and Interventional Radiology (United States); Rilling, William, E-mail: wrilling@mcw.edu [Medical College of Wisconsin, Division of Vascular and Interventional Radiology Rm2803 (United States); Salem, Riad, E-mail: r-salem@northwestern.edu [Northwestern University, Department of Radiology (United States); Matsui, Osamu, E-mail: matsuio@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp [Kanazawa University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Department of Advanced Medical Imaging (Japan); Soulen, Michael C., E-mail: michael.soulen@uphs.upenn.edu [University of Pennsylvania, Division of Interventional Radiology (MCS) (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Transarterial chemoembolization with Lipiodol (Lipiodol TACE), also called conventional TACE, was developed in the early 1980s and widely adopted worldwide after randomized control trials and meta-analysis demonstrated superiority of Lipiodol TACE to best supportive care. Presently, there is no level one evidence that other TACE techniques are superior to Lipiodol TACE for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which includes patients with preserved liver function and nonsurgical large or multinodular HCC without distant metastases. In addition, TACE is part of the treatment for progressive or symptomatic liver metastases from gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. When injected into the hepatic artery, Lipiodol has the unique property of selective uptake and retention in hyperarterialyzed liver tumors. Lipiodol/drug emulsion followed by particle embolization has been demonstrated to improve the pharmacokinetic of the drug and tumor response. Radio opacity of Lipiodol helps to monitor treatment delivery, with retention of Lipiodol serving as an imaging biomarker for tumor response. For 30 years, Lipiodol TACE has been inconsistently referenced in many publications with various levels of details for the method of preparation and administration, with reported progressive outcomes following improvements in the technique and the devices used to deliver the treatment and better patient selection. Consequently, there is no consensus on the standard method of TACE regarding the use of anticancer agents, embolic material, technical details, and the treatment schedule. In order to develop an internationally validated technical recommendation to standardize the Lipiodol TACE procedure, a worldwide panel of experts participated in a consensus meeting held on May 10, 2014.

  10. Teachers' opinion about learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical material in classification topics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriani, Aldina Eka; Subali, Bambang

    2017-08-01

    This research discusses learning continuum development for designing a curriculum. The objective of this study is to gather the opinion of public junior and senior high school teachers about learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical material in classification topics. This research was conducted in Yogyakarta province from October 2016 to January 2017. This research utilizes a descriptive survey method. Respondents in this study consist of 281 science teachers at junior and senior high school in Yogyakarta city and 4 regencies namely Sleman, Bantul, Kulonprogo, and Gunung Kidul. The sample were taken using a census. The collection of data used questionnaire that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements. Data were analyzed using a descriptive analysis technique. The results of the analysis show that the opinions of teachers regarding specific pedagogical material in classification topics of living things at the junior high school taught in grade VII to the ability level of C2 (Understanding). At senior high school level, it is taught in grade X with the ability level C2 (Understanding). Based on these results, it can be concluded that the opinions of teachers still refer to the current syllabus and curriculum so that the teachers do not have pure opinions about the student's competence level in classification topics that should be taught at the level of the grade in accordance with the level of corresponding competency.

  11. Anisotropic opinion dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neirotti, Juan

    2016-07-01

    We consider the process of opinion formation in a society of interacting agents, where there is a set B of socially accepted rules. In this scenario, we observed that agents, represented by simple feed-forward, adaptive neural networks, may have a conservative attitude (mostly in agreement with B ) or liberal attitude (mostly in agreement with neighboring agents) depending on how much their opinions are influenced by their peers. The topology of the network representing the interaction of the society's members is determined by a graph, where the agents' properties are defined over the vertexes and the interagent interactions are defined over the bonds. The adaptability of the agents allows us to model the formation of opinions as an online learning process, where agents learn continuously as new information becomes available to the whole society (online learning). Through the application of statistical mechanics techniques we deduced a set of differential equations describing the dynamics of the system. We observed that by slowly varying the average peer influence in such a way that the agents attitude changes from conservative to liberal and back, the average social opinion develops a hysteresis cycle. Such hysteretic behavior disappears when the variance of the social influence distribution is large enough. In all the cases studied, the change from conservative to liberal behavior is characterized by the emergence of conservative clusters, i.e., a closed knitted set of society members that follow a leader who agrees with the social status quo when the rule B is challenged.

  12. Opinion evolution in different social acquaintance networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Zhang, Xiao; Wu, Zhan; Wang, Hongwei; Wang, Guohua; Li, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Social acquaintance networks influenced by social culture and social policy have a great impact on public opinion evolution in daily life. Based on the differences between socio-culture and social policy, three different social acquaintance networks (kinship-priority acquaintance network, independence-priority acquaintance network, and hybrid acquaintance network) incorporating heredity proportion p h and variation proportion p v are proposed in this paper. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate network topology and different phenomena during opinion evolution, using the Deffuant model. We found that in kinship-priority acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese traditional acquaintance networks, opinions always achieve fragmentation, resulting in the formation of multiple large clusters and many small clusters due to the fact that individuals believe more in their relatives and live in a relatively closed environment. In independence-priority acquaintance networks, similar to Western acquaintance networks, the results are similar to those in the kinship-priority acquaintance network. In hybrid acquaintance networks, similar to the Chinese modern acquaintance networks, only a few clusters are formed indicating that in modern China, opinions are more likely to reach consensus on a large scale. These results are similar to the opinion evolution phenomena in modern society, proving the rationality and applicability of network models combined with social culture and policy. We also found a threshold curve p v +2p h =2.05 in the results for the final opinion clusters and evolution time. Above the threshold curve, opinions could easily reach consensus. Based on the above experimental results, a culture-policy-driven mechanism for the opinion dynamic is worth promoting in this paper, that is, opinion dynamics can be driven by different social cultures and policies through the influence of heredity and variation in interpersonal relationship networks. This

  13. Occupational scope and qualification of environment experts in public administration. Final report. Berufsfeld- und Qualifikationsanalyse fuer Umweltfachleute in der Oeffentlichen Verwaltung. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brater, M; Hemmer, C; Maurus, A; Munz, C; Schluchter,

    1991-12-01

    The publication presents the three parts of the original report in one volume. The parts refewing to occupational qualifications consistently differentiate between occupation all specific qualification standards and those of a non-specific nature. Environmental protection is defined to be based on pollution control as a matter of engineering, pollution abatement as a matter of planning and regulatory activities, and the integrated version of the two strategies. Experts in public administration specialising in environmental protection are to be trained as experts in the following sub-areas environmental planning (innovation and strategy planning); design planning (engineering aspects); environmental law (impact statements, expert opinions, special knowledge of environmental media); enforcement of the law, licensing procedure, monitoring and supervision (efficiency evaluation); public relations (information, consultancy, education). The report presents job descriptions, qualification standards, occupational scopes and prospects for every type of qualification and education. (HSCH).

  14. Expert Opinion to Identify High-Risk Entry Routes of Canine Rabies into Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookes, V J; Ward, M P

    2017-03-01

    The proximity of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to canine rabies-endemic countries in South-East Asia presents a risk of incursion of this disease into PNG and the rest of the Oceanic region. The objective of this study was to identify the highest risk routes for entry of dogs - associated with movement of people - into PNG from canine rabies-endemic countries. A structured, in-country expert-elicitation workshop was used, and 20 entry routes were identified. The highest risk routes were three land routes from Papua, Indonesia (hunters, traditional border crossers and unregulated, unchecked 'shopper-crossers') and two sea routes (fishing and logging). These results will be used to direct more detailed risk assessments to develop surveillance strategies and incursion response plans. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. How Public Opinion is Formed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Edward M.

    1977-01-01

    Investigates the evolution of the definition of public relations by examining cultural and personal determinants of public opinion. Outlines functions of communicators and opinionmakers in forming and influencing public opinion. Available from: Public Relations Review, Ray Hiebert, Dean, College of Journalism, University of Maryland, College Park,…

  16. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  17. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  18. Treatment of complex PTSD: results of the ISTSS expert clinician survey on best practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloitre, Marylene; Courtois, Christine A; Charuvastra, Anthony; Carapezza, Richard; Stolbach, Bradley C; Green, Bonnie L

    2011-12-01

    This study provides a summary of the results of an expert opinion survey initiated by the International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies Complex Trauma Task Force regarding best practices for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Ratings from a mail-in survey from 25 complex PTSD experts and 25 classic PTSD experts regarding the most appropriate treatment approaches and interventions for complex PTSD were examined for areas of consensus and disagreement. Experts agreed on several aspects of treatment, with 84% endorsing a phase-based or sequenced therapy as the most appropriate treatment approach with interventions tailored to specific symptom sets. First-line interventions matched to specific symptoms included emotion regulation strategies, narration of trauma memory, cognitive restructuring, anxiety and stress management, and interpersonal skills. Meditation and mindfulness interventions were frequently identified as an effective second-line approach for emotional, attentional, and behavioral (e.g., aggression) disturbances. Agreement was not obtained on either the expected course of improvement or on duration of treatment. The survey results provide a strong rationale for conducting research focusing on the relative merits of traditional trauma-focused therapies and sequenced multicomponent approaches applied to different patient populations with a range of symptom profiles. Sustained symptom monitoring during the course of treatment and during extended follow-up would advance knowledge about both the speed and durability of treatment effects. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  19. Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zickfeld, K.; Levermann, A.; Kuhlbrodt, T.; Rahmstorf, S.; Morgan, M.G.; Keith, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4xCO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC

  20. 28 CFR 80.8 - Attorney General opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Attorney General opinion. 80.8 Section 80.8 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OPINION PROCEDURE § 80.8 Attorney General opinion. The Attorney General or his designee shall, within 30 days after...

  1. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  2. Breast carcinoma during pregnancy. International recommendations from an expert meeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loibl, Sibylle; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Gwyn, Karin; Ellis, Paul; Blohmer, Jens U; Schlegelberger, Brigitte; Keller, Monika; Harder, Sebastian; Theriault, Richard L; Crivellari, Diana; Klingebiel, Thomas; Louwen, Frank; Kaufmann, Manfred

    2006-01-15

    Breast carcinoma during pregnancy (BCP) is a difficult clinical situation, as it appears to put the health of the mother in conflict with that of the fetus. An international expert meeting was conducted to form guidelines on how to diagnose and treat women with BCP. The goal for treatment of the pregnant woman with breast carcinoma is the same as that of the nonpregnant breast carcinoma patient: local control of disease and prevention of systemic metastases. However, certain treatment modalities need to be modified because of the potential for adverse effects on the fetus. There is evidence to support the safety of anthracycline-based chemotherapy during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy (Oxford Level of Evidence [LOE] 2b). Because of the lack of evidence, the expert opinion was not to recommend the routine use of newer cytotoxic drugs like the taxanes during pregnancy (LOE 5). The recommendations provided should help to reach informed decision making by the patient. The ongoing prospective collection of data on BCP, such as that at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC) and that of the German Breast Group/Breast International Group (GBG/BIG), is necessary to further our knowledge regarding the treatment of this unique group of breast carcinoma patients.

  3. Nurses' expert opinions of workplace interventions for a healthy working environment: a Delphi survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Diane; Clarke, Sean; Hayes, Laureen; Nincic, Vera

    2014-09-01

    Much has been written about interventions to improve the nursing work environment, yet little is known about their effectiveness. A Delphi survey of nurse experts was conducted to explore perceptions about workplace interventions in terms of feasibility and likelihood of positive impact on nurse outcomes such as job satisfaction and nurse retention. The interventions that received the highest ratings for likelihood of positive impact included: bedside handover to improve communication at shift report and promote patient-centred care; training program for nurses in dealing with violent or aggressive behaviour; development of charge nurse leadership team; training program focused on creating peer-supportive atmospheres and group cohesion; and schedule that recognizes work balance and family demands. The overall findings are consistent with the literature that highlights the importance of communication and teamwork, nurse health and safety, staffing and scheduling practices, professional development and leadership and mentorship. Nursing researchers and decision-makers should work in collaboration to implement and evaluate interventions for promoting practice environments characterized by effective communication and teamwork, professional growth and adequate support for the health and well-being of nurses.

  4. Identifying Opinion Leaders to Promote Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Thomas W.; Pumpuang, Patchareeya

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews 10 techniques used to identify opinion leaders to promote behavior change. Opinion leaders can act as gatekeepers for interventions, help change social norms, and accelerate behavior change. Few studies document the manner in which opinion leaders are identified, recruited, and trained to promote health. The authors categorize…

  5. UK Public Opinion Review - Working Paper - An overview of public opinion polls since the Edward Snowden revelations in June 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Cable, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    This document charts public opinion of the Edward Snowden leaks and associated issues\\ud since June 2013. This includes people’s opinions on surveillance, the intelligence services\\ud and personal privacy. Since the Snowden leaks there have been 38 opinion polls on these\\ud topics concerning public opinion in the UK and conducted by large polling organisations,\\ud such as YouGov, ComRes and Ipsos MORI among others.

  6. [First results of a German second opinion program show high patient satisfaction and large discrepancies between initial therapy recommendations and second opinion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyerstraß, Jan; Prediger, Barbara; Neugebauer, Edmund; Pieper, Dawid

    2018-02-23

    Although legally anchored, there are no empirical results from German second opinion programs. In this study, various aspects within a population of a second opinion program are examined. In this study patients were analyzed who sought a second opinion in the period from August 2011 to December 2016. Differences in patient characteristics, differentiated by agreement of first and second opinion, were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Patients' satisfaction and quality of life were examined one, three and six months after obtaining the second opinion. In total, 1,414 patients sought a second opinion. Most frequent medical indications were the knee (38.7 %), the back (26.8 %), the hip (11.7 %), and the shoulder (10.2 %). Except for the indication (p=0.035), no patient characteristic had influence on the conformation of the second opinion. Approximately two out of three initial recommendations were not confirmed by the specialists. 89 % of the patients were satisfied or very satisfied with the second opinion and the service offered. The second opinion offers patients the opportunity to seek an additional independent medical opinion and thus provide support for decision making. Further research is needed to examine the reasons for the high discrepancies between the first and second opinions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  7. Opinion survey on energy and climate in 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Jean-Philippe

    2013-08-01

    This issue comments the results of a survey on the opinion of French people on the reality of climate change (for the whole population and with respect to age), on the opinion of French people on nuclear energy (in relationship with the opinion on climate change, globally in terms of benefit or drawback with evolution of the opinion since 1994), on the feeling of having suffered from the cold during the winter of 2012-2013, on the dwelling temperature in winter, and on the opinion on energy price

  8. Tracheotomy in the intensive care unit: guidelines from a French expert panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trouillet, Jean Louis; Collange, Olivier; Belafia, Fouad; Blot, François; Capellier, Gilles; Cesareo, Eric; Constantin, Jean-Michel; Demoule, Alexandre; Diehl, Jean-Luc; Guinot, Pierre-Grégoire; Jegoux, Franck; L'Her, Erwan; Luyt, Charles-Edouard; Mahjoub, Yazine; Mayaux, Julien; Quintard, Hervé; Ravat, François; Vergez, Sebastien; Amour, Julien; Guillot, Max

    2018-03-15

    Tracheotomy is widely used in intensive care units, albeit with great disparities between medical teams in terms of frequency and modality. Indications and techniques are, however, associated with variable levels of evidence based on inhomogeneous or even contradictory literature. Our aim was to conduct a systematic analysis of the published data in order to provide guidelines. We present herein recommendations for the use of tracheotomy in adult critically ill patients developed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) method. These guidelines were conducted by a group of experts from the French Intensive Care Society (Société de Réanimation de Langue Française) and the French Society of Anesthesia and Intensive Care Medicine (Société Francaise d'Anesthésie Réanimation) with the participation of the French Emergency Medicine Association (Société Française de Médecine d'Urgence), the French Society of Otorhinolaryngology. Sixteen experts and two coordinators agreed to consider questions concerning tracheotomy and its practical implementation. Five topics were defined: indications and contraindications for tracheotomy in intensive care, tracheotomy techniques in intensive care, modalities of tracheotomy in intensive care, management of patients undergoing tracheotomy in intensive care, and decannulation in intensive care. The summary made by the experts and the application of GRADE methodology led to the drawing up of 8 formal guidelines, 10 recommendations, and 3 treatment protocols. Among the 8 formal guidelines, 2 have a high level of proof (Grade 1+/-) and 6 a low level of proof (Grade 2+/-). For the 10 recommendations, GRADE methodology was not applicable and instead 10 expert opinions were produced.

  9. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  10. Applications of flow-networks to opinion-dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tupikina, Liubov; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    Networks were successfully applied to describe complex systems, such as brain, climate, processes in society. Recently a socio-physical problem of opinion-dynamics was studied using network techniques. We present the toy-model of opinion-formation based on the physical model of advection-diffusion. We consider spreading of the opinion on the fixed subject, assuming that opinion on society is binary: if person has opinion then the state of the node in the society-network equals 1, if the person doesn't have opinion state of the node equals 0. Opinion can be spread from one person to another if they know each other, or in the network-terminology, if the nodes are connected. We include into the system governed by advection-diffusion equation the external field to model such effects as for instance influence from media. The assumptions for our model can be formulated as the following: 1.the node-states are influenced by the network structure in such a way, that opinion can be spread only between adjacent nodes (the advective term of the opinion-dynamics), 2.the network evolution can have two scenarios: -network topology is not changing with time; -additional links can appear or disappear each time-step with fixed probability which requires adaptive networks properties. Considering these assumptions for our system we obtain the system of equations describing our model-dynamics which corresponds well to other socio-physics models, for instance, the model of the social cohesion and the famous voter-model. We investigate the behavior of the suggested model studying "waiting time" of the system, time to get to the stable state, stability of the model regimes for different values of model parameters and network topology.

  11. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  12. Strategies for the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents: expert opinions from a Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ineke; Brug, Johannes; van der Ploeg, Catharina P B; Raat, Hein

    2009-05-01

    To identify parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents and potentially effective prevention strategies and interventions. Thirty experts in fields such as scientific research, medical practice, community health professions, education, youth work, music entertainment, and enforcement authorities participated in a qualitative, electronic, 3-round, Web-based Delphi study. Multiple parties involved in the prevention of MP3-induced hearing loss among adolescents were identified; the most relevant are the adolescents themselves, their parents, manufacturers of MP3 players and earphones, and the authorities. The experts did not expect that adolescents in general would perform the necessary protective behaviors to prevent MP3-induced hearing loss. Two environmental health protection measures were identified as both relevant and feasible to be implemented (ie, authorities encourage manufacturers to produce safer products, and public health campaigns will be held to improve knowledge of the risks of high-volume music, possible protective measures, and consequences of hearing loss). Authorities, the music industry in general, and especially manufacturers of MP3 players and earphones should recognize their responsibility and create a safer MP3-listening environment by taking measures to protect today's youth from the dangers of listening to high-volume music on MP3 players.

  13. Discrepancy and Disliking Do Not Induce Negative Opinion Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flache, Andreas; Mäs, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Both classical social psychological theories and recent formal models of opinion differentiation and bi-polarization assign a prominent role to negative social influence. Negative influence is defined as shifts away from the opinion of others and hypothesized to be induced by discrepancy with or disliking of the source of influence. There is strong empirical support for the presence of positive social influence (a shift towards the opinion of others), but evidence that large opinion differences or disliking could trigger negative shifts is mixed. We examine positive and negative influence with controlled exposure to opinions of other individuals in one experiment and with opinion exchange in another study. Results confirm that similarities induce attraction, but results do not support that discrepancy or disliking entails negative influence. Instead, our findings suggest a robust positive linear relationship between opinion distance and opinion shifts. PMID:27333160

  14. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virtanen, Y.; Torkkeli, S. [VTT Chemical Technology, Espoo (Finland). Environmental Technology; Wilson, B. [Landbank Environmental Research and Consulting, London (United Kingdom)

    1999-07-01

    Because of the complexity and trade-offs between different points of the life cycles of the analysed systems, a method which measures the environmental damage caused by each intervention is needed in order to make a choice between the products. However, there is no commonly agreed methodology for this particular purpose. In most of the methods the valuation is implicitly or explicitly based on economic criteria. For various reasons, however, economically obtained criteria do not necessarily reflect ecological arguments correctly. Thus, there is a need for new, ecologically based valuation methods. One such approach is the expert judgement method, based on the Delphi technique, which rejects the economic basis in favour of the judgements of a group of environmental experts. However, it is not self evident that the expert judgement based environmental rating of interventions will be essentially more correct and certain than other methods. In this study the method was evaluated at different points of the procedure in order to obtain a picture of the quality of the indexes produced. The evaluation was based on an actual Delphi study made in 1995-1996 in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The main questions addressed were the significance of the results and the operational quality of the Delphi procedure. The results obtained by applying the expert method indexes were also compared with the results obtained with other valuation methods for the background life cycle inventory of the case study. Additional material included feedback data from panellists of the case study, collected with a questionnaire. The questionnaire data was analysed to identify major dimensions in the criteria for evaluating interventions and correlation of the final indexes of the Delphi I study with these dimensions. The rest of the questionnaire material was used to document panellists' opinions and experiences of the Delphi process, familiarity with the environmental impacts of various

  15. Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virtanen, Y.; Torkkeli, S.

    1999-01-01

    Because of the complexity and trade-offs between different points of the life cycles of the analysed systems, a method which measures the environmental damage caused by each intervention is needed in order to make a choice between the products. However, there is no commonly agreed methodology for this particular purpose. In most of the methods the valuation is implicitly or explicitly based on economic criteria. For various reasons, however, economically obtained criteria do not necessarily reflect ecological arguments correctly. Thus, there is a need for new, ecologically based valuation methods. One such approach is the expert judgement method, based on the Delphi technique, which rejects the economic basis in favour of the judgements of a group of environmental experts. However, it is not self evident that the expert judgement based environmental rating of interventions will be essentially more correct and certain than other methods. In this study the method was evaluated at different points of the procedure in order to obtain a picture of the quality of the indexes produced. The evaluation was based on an actual Delphi study made in 1995-1996 in Finland, Sweden and Norway. The main questions addressed were the significance of the results and the operational quality of the Delphi procedure. The results obtained by applying the expert method indexes were also compared with the results obtained with other valuation methods for the background life cycle inventory of the case study. Additional material included feedback data from panellists of the case study, collected with a questionnaire. The questionnaire data was analysed to identify major dimensions in the criteria for evaluating interventions and correlation of the final indexes of the Delphi I study with these dimensions. The rest of the questionnaire material was used to document panellists' opinions and experiences of the Delphi process, familiarity with the environmental impacts of various interventions

  16. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  17. 'Quicksand' of public opinion - trust in nuclear after Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gieci, Adam; Maly, Stanislav; Palecek, Milos

    2012-01-01

    The following public opinion surveys are described: public opinion on nuclear power plants by the end of 2010; first public opinion polls after Fukushima in the US, UK and France; and public opinion and the future of nuclear in Japan. The following issues are discussed: Has nuclear any perspective after Fukushima? Will public opinion change after the Fukushima accident like it did after the TMI event? Will public opinion change after the Fukushima accident like it did after the oil spill accident in the Gulf of Mexico? In conclusion the new approaches to the fight for public confidence after Fukushima are described. (orig.)

  18. Discrete Opinion Dynamics on Online Social Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yan-Li; Bai Liang; Zhang Wei-Ming

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamics of binary opinions {+1, −1} on online social networks consisting of heterogeneous actors. In our model, actors update their opinions under the interplay of social influence and self- affirmation, which leads to rich dynamical behaviors on online social networks. We find that the opinion leading to the consensus features an advantage of the initially weighted fraction based on actors' strength over the other, instead of the population. For the role of specific actors, the consensus converges towards the opinion that a small fraction of high-strength actors hold, and individual diversity of self-affirmation slows down the ordering process of consensus. These indicate that high-strength actors play an essential role in opinion formation with strong social influence as well as high persistence. Further investigations show that the initial fraction of high-strength actors to dominate the evolution depends on the heterogeneity of the strength distribution, and less high-strength actors are needed in the case of a smaller exponent of power-law distribution of actors' strength. Our study provides deep insights into the role of social influence and self-affirmation on opinion formation on online social networks. (general)

  19. Discrete Opinion Dynamics on Online Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yan-Li; Bai, Liang; Zhang, Wei-Ming

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the dynamics of binary opinions {+1, -1} on online social networks consisting of heterogeneous actors. In our model, actors update their opinions under the interplay of social influence and self- affirmation, which leads to rich dynamical behaviors on online social networks. We find that the opinion leading to the consensus features an advantage of the initially weighted fraction based on actors' strength over the other, instead of the population. For the role of specific actors, the consensus converges towards the opinion that a small fraction of high-strength actors hold, and individual diversity of self-affirmation slows down the ordering process of consensus. These indicate that high-strength actors play an essential role in opinion formation with strong social influence as well as high persistence. Further investigations show that the initial fraction of high-strength actors to dominate the evolution depends on the heterogeneity of the strength distribution, and less high-strength actors are needed in the case of a smaller exponent of power-law distribution of actors' strength. Our study provides deep insights into the role of social influence and self-affirmation on opinion formation on online social networks.

  20. IRSN 2015 opinion survey. The perception of risks and safety by French people. Global results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Mur, Emmanuelle; Rollinger, Francois; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2015-07-01

    Like every year, this report presents and comments the results of an opinion survey on risks, and more particularly on risks related to nuclear and radiological activities. The first part addresses the current concerns of French people (main concerns in the present society, with respect to the environment, and risks related to industrial installations). The second part addresses the opinion on expertise (the role and image of experts, diffusion and sharing of scientific expertise, and who should control a hazardous installation). The third part examines the reaction of people in front of 34 different hazardous situations (risks to which people feel being exposed, confidence people have in authorities to protect them, confidence in information on hazards, hierarchy of the 34 situations according to three different aspects, and relationship with installation acceptability). The fourth part addresses the nuclear domain: expectations related to the control of the nuclear risk, fear of a severe accident, benefits and drawbacks of nuclear energy, expertise and credibility of interveners in the nuclear sector. The fifth part addresses the presence of radon in dwellings (awareness of the risk, measures related to the control of radon in dwellings)

  1. Opinion data mining based on DNA method and ORA software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Ru-Ya; Wu, Lei; Liang, Xiao-He; Zhang, Xue-Fu

    2018-01-01

    Public opinion, especially the online public opinion is a critical issue when it comes to mining its characteristics. Because it can be formed directly and intensely in a short time, and may lead to the outbreak of online group events, and the formation of online public opinion crisis. This may become the pushing hand of a public crisis event, or even have negative social impacts, which brings great challenges to the government management. Data from the mass media which reveal implicit, previously unknown, and potentially valuable information, can effectively help us to understand the evolution law of public opinion, and provide a useful reference for rumor intervention. Based on the Dynamic Network Analysis method, this paper uses ORA software to mine characteristics of public opinion information, opinion topics, and public opinion agents through a series of indicators, and quantitatively analyzed the relationships between them. The results show that through the analysis of the 8 indexes associating with opinion data mining, we can have a basic understanding of the public opinion characteristics of an opinion event, such as who is important in the opinion spreading process, the information grasping condition, and the opinion topics release situation.

  2. An analytical study on indifference management in educational system of Iran: Reflection on expert's opinions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abolfazli Elham

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study attempted to explore and analyse the indifference management trend in the Educational system of Iran. This objective was achieved through a qualitative approach and grounded theory. The population included all educational management professionals and experts who had at least two years of management experience. Twenty-four individuals were selected through purposive sampling based on theoretical data saturation. In order to collect research data, semi-structured interviews were adopted. Moreover, the results were evaluated through systematic analysis method based on open, core and selective coding. The findings suggested that the causal conditions affecting indifference management entail eight dimensions: job motivation, employee development, organisational culture, organisational climate, attitude and manager's performance, employee attitude, work environment and nature of work. Organisational culture, organisational climate and workplace conditions were the underlying factors of indifference management, while behaviour and performance of managers were mediating or confounding conditions, playing a dramatic role in indifference management.

  3. Getting a Second Opinion Before Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for a second opinion before surgery. When your doctor says you have a health problem that needs surgery, you have the right to: • Know and understand your treatment choices • Have another doctor look at those choices with you (second opinion) • ...

  4. Social opinion dynamics is not chaotic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Chjan; Zhang, Weituo

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the research on social opinion dynamics over large and dense networks, a general framework for verifying the monotonicity property of multi-agent dynamics is introduced. This allows a derivation of sociologically meaningful sufficient conditions for monotonicity that are tailor-made for social opinion dynamics, which typically have high nonlinearity. A direct consequence of monotonicity is that social opinion dynamics is nonchaotic. A key part of this framework is the definition of a partial order relation that is suitable for a large class of social opinion dynamics such as the generalized naming games. Comparisons are made to previous techniques to verify monotonicity. Using the results obtained, we extend many of the consequences of monotonicity to this class of social dynamics, including several corollaries on their asymptotic behavior, such as global convergence to consensus and tipping points of a minority fraction of zealots or leaders.

  5. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  6. Local community opinions regarding the socio-environmental aspects of lignite surface mining: Experiences from central Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badera, Jarosław; Kocoń, Paweł

    2014-01-01

    Surface lignite mining covers large areas and usually generates social conflicts which pose one of several energy security threats to certain states. Therefore, defining the social conditions determines the success of a mining project. Two communes were chosen for a public opinion study: Kleszczów, where the Bełchatów mine is located, and Złoczew, where a lignite deposit will soon be developed. The analysis shows, as opposed to other areas in Poland that have been projected for development, that both local communities are characterised by a high level of acceptance for lignite mining. In both cases, awareness about the profits was stronger than anxiety about the investment's negative effects. However, most inhabitants could not assess the mining company's diligence concerning its responsibility for mining damages as well as the diligence of external experts assessing the environmental impacts of excavation. Most respondents also could not assess if the legal regulations of public participation in the decision process were sufficient, but the negative opinions outweighed the positive ones. From the perspective of the energy policy, dialogue-type social communication is needed for every case of a new energy-mining project. Research on local public opinion should be the first step to opening up a social debate. - Highlights: • Lignite mining can generate social conflicts, which may threaten energy security. • Examined communes are characterised by a high level of acceptance for lignite mining. • Inhabitants cannot assess if the legal regulations of mining activity are sufficient. • From the perspective of the energy policy, broader social communication is needed. • Research on the public opinion should be the first step to open up a social debate

  7. Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Rothschild

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Psychologists have long observed that people conform to majority opinion, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the ‘bandwagon effect’. In the political domain people learn about prevailing public opinion via ubiquitous polls, which may produce a bandwagon effect. Newer types of information – published probabilities derived from prediction market contract prices and aggregated polling summaries – may have similar effects. Consequently, polls can become self-fulfilling prophecies whereby majorities, whether in support of candidates or policies, grow in a cascading manner. Despite increased attention to whether the measurement of public opinion can itself affect public opinion, the existing empirical literature is surprisingly limited on the bandwagon effects of polls. To address this gap, we conducted an experiment on a diverse national sample in which we randomly assigned people to receive information about different levels of support for three public policies. We find that public opinion as expressed through polls affects individual-level attitudes, although the size of the effect depends on issue characteristics.

  8. Monte Carlo simulations of a model for opinion formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordogna, C. M.; Albano, E. V.

    2007-04-01

    A model for opinion formation based on the Theory of Social Impact is presented and studied by means of numerical simulations. Individuals with two states of opinion are impacted due to social interactions with: i) members of the society, ii) a strong leader with a well-defined opinion and iii) the mass media that could either support or compete with the leader. Due to that competition, the average opinion of the social group exhibits phase-transition like behaviour between different states of opinion.

  9. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  10. Public opinion on atomic energy after JCO accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamoto, Koichi; Miyamoto, Sosuke; Ishikawa, Masayori; Shimomura, Hideo; Hori, Hiromoto; Suzuki, Yasuko; Kamise, Yumiko

    2004-04-01

    JCO accident happened on September 30, 1999. This book deals with the public opinion of atomic energy after JCO accident in Japan and comparison with that of USA and France. The analysis of public opinion structure is also shown. The important chapter is the eighth chapter a n opinion survey after the accident , of which sampling areas consisted of three areas such as JCO accident area, the nuclear power plants and the general cities. The analytical results of data showed that the public opinion in Tokai-mura and Naka-machi, the JCO accident area, indicated moderate opinions. It is the interesting results were obtained that the moderate tendency of opinion was in order JCO accident area, the nuclear power plants and the general cities. People's attitude toward nuclear energy related to their social values. Abstract of JCO accident, JCO structure, the effects of accident on the environment and news stories about the accident are reported. (S.Y.)

  11. Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

  12. Management of Clostridium difficile Infection in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Expert Review from the Clinical Practice Updates Committee of the AGA Institute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Sahil; Shin, Andrea; Kelly, Ciarán P

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this expert review is to synthesize the existing evidence on the management of Clostridium difficile infection in patients with underlying inflammatory bowel disease. The evidence reviewed in this article is a summation of relevant scientific publications, expert opinion statements, and current practice guidelines. This review is a summary of expert opinion in the field without a formal systematic review of evidence. Best Practice Advice 1: Clinicians should test patients who present with a flare of underlying inflammatory bowel disease for Clostridium difficile infection. Best Practice Advice 2: Clinicians should screen for recurrent C difficile infection if diarrhea or other symptoms of colitis persist or return after antibiotic treatment for C difficile infection. Best Practice Advice 3: Clinicians should consider treating C difficile infection in inflammatory bowel disease patients with vancomycin instead of metronidazole. Best Practice Advice 4: Clinicians strongly should consider hospitalization for close monitoring and aggressive management for inflammatory bowel disease patients with C difficile infection who have profuse diarrhea, severe abdominal pain, a markedly increased peripheral blood leukocyte count, or other evidence of sepsis. Best Practice Advice 5: Clinicians may postpone escalation of steroids and other immunosuppression agents during acute C difficile infection until therapy for C difficile infection has been initiated. However, the decision to withhold or continue immunosuppression in inflammatory bowel disease patients with C difficile infection should be individualized because there is insufficient existing robust literature on which to develop firm recommendations. Best Practice Advice 6: Clinicians should offer a referral for fecal microbiota transplantation to inflammatory bowel disease patients with recurrent C difficile infection. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Current level of training, experience and perceptions of emergency physicians as expert witnesses: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Nicola Y; Weiland, Tracey J

    2009-12-01

    The objective of the present study was to determine emergency physicians' training, experience and perceptions as expert witnesses. Emergency physicians of an adult tertiary referral and teaching hospital participated in a pilot survey regarding their experiences in report writing and in court as expert witnesses. The 28-item survey also examined the amount of formalized forensic medical teaching that emergency physicians had received during their training. Of the participants, 41% (95% CI 21.6-64.1; 7/17) had never received any undergraduate or postgraduate training in forensic medicine, 11/17 (65%, 95% CI 41.2-82.8) had provided a written expert opinion for court, and 12/17 (71%, 95% CI 46.6-87.0) had attended court as an expert witness. All participants considered themselves 'skilled in attending an emergency resuscitation', whereas 3/13 (23%, 95% CI 7.5-50.9) considered themselves 'skilled in attending a courtroom trial'. Nearly 90% (95% CI 64.7-98.0; 15/17) thought that medical evidence training should be a requirement of emergency speciality training. The most commonly preferred forms of medical evidence training were mock court sessions (76%, 95% CI 52.2-91.0; 13/17) and forensic workshops (76%, 95% CI 52.2-91.0; 13/17). From 10 non-technical skills required of an EP, 'appearing in court as an expert witness' was perceived to be the second most difficult skill by most respondents. Emergency physicians in this pilot study have limited training for the role of expert witness and see it as one of the most difficult non-technical skills they have to perform. Further research is required regarding the current and future scope of forensic training.

  14. OPINION GIVING SERVICES AS A SOURCE OF CONSUMER INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Wyrwisz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is to determine the place and role of opinion giving services in consumer behaviours. The discussion is conducted around the thesis saying that in the information society, opinion giving services constitute an important source of information for consumers in the process of selecting and purchasing both products and services. In the article the research approach based on the theoretical and empirical examinations was presented. The discussion starts with presenting a defi nition and types of opinion giving services which constitute the base for the characteristics of activities and usefulness of web portals collecting consumers opinions. The use of opinion giving services provided in the purchase process was evaluated. An essential interest in other consumers opinions, placed in Internet, was observed together with perceiving them as credible. Positive assessment of the functionality of opinion giving services was noticed.

  15. Expert panel on hydrogeology; report to AECL Research (1992)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domenico, P.A.; Grisak, G.E.; Schwartz, F.W.

    1995-02-01

    In 1992 AECL Research convened a panel of external hydrogeological experts consisting of P.A. Domenico, G.E. Grisak, and F.W. Schwartz, to review AECL's proposed approach to siting a geological repository in the rocks of the Canadian Shield for the safe disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel wastes. In particular the panel was asked to provide its opinion on 1) the soundness of the technical approach developed to characterize the groundwater flow systems for the purpose of selecting a location for a disposal vault, 2) the validity and effectiveness of the geological case study used to demonstrate the performance assessment methodology based on the hydrogeological conditions observed at the Whiteshell Research Area, and 3) the adequacy of the hydrogeological information that AECL proposes to use in its Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) of the disposal concept. This report presents the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the hydrogeology review panel. The report was submitted to AECL Research in 1992 December. (author). 24 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

  16. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  17. THE LAWYER`S OPINION IN MODERN CIVIL LAW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Evgenyevna Dubovaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose to define value of freedom and fight of opinions, views and lawyer’s positions in development of science of civil law.Methodology theoretical analysis, inductive and deductive methods.Results It is established that fight of opinions, collision of various positions allows to understand more deeply the discussed problem, to come nearer to truth. So, free expression of opinions is the engine of development of civil law.Practical implications introduction in educational process on disciplines of civil jurisprudence, further research of fight of opinions in civil law.Tendencies of the present stage of development of legal system are characterized by aspiration to fix in the Russian legal system of the beginning of private law, where at the head of a corner – people as a legal entity. Opinions of lawyers on various legal problems, and the attitudes towards these opinions are subject to considerable dynamics. The centuries-old history of development of the right showed that fight of opinions, collision of various positions allows to understand more deeply the discussed problem, to come nearer to truth. The modern civil law widely uses a method of comparative jurisprudence, studying experience of the civilized countries which promoted in development of the civil legislation.

  18. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  19. Opinion Dynamics with Heterogeneous Interactions and Information Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mir Tabatabaei, Seydeh Anahita

    2013-01-01

    In any modern society, individuals interact to form opinions on various topics, including economic, political, and social aspects. Opinions evolve as the result of the continuous exchange of information among individuals and of the assimilation of information distributed by media. The impact of individuals' opinions on each other forms a network,…

  20. Conciliatory and contradictory dynamics in opinion formation

    OpenAIRE

    Boudin , Laurent; Mercier , Aurore; Salvarani , Francesco

    2012-01-01

    International audience; In this article, we study, via a kinetic description, the effect of different psychologies on the evolution of the opinion with respect to a binary choice, in a closed group. We show that the interaction between individuals with different reactions regarding the exchange of opinion induces some phenomena, such as the concentration of opinions or the cyclic-in-time behaviour of the distribution function. We provide an existence and uniqueness result for the model and nu...

  1. Analysis and application of opinion model with multiple topic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Wang, Liang; Wang, Ximeng

    2017-08-01

    To reveal heterogeneous behaviors of opinion evolution in different scenarios, we propose an opinion model with topic interactions. Individual opinions and topic features are represented by a multidimensional vector. We measure an agent's action towards a specific topic by the product of opinion and topic feature. When pairs of agents interact for a topic, their actions are introduced to opinion updates with bounded confidence. Simulation results show that a transition from a disordered state to a consensus state occurs at a critical point of the tolerance threshold, which depends on the opinion dimension. The critical point increases as the dimension of opinions increases. Multiple topics promote opinion interactions and lead to the formation of macroscopic opinion clusters. In addition, more topics accelerate the evolutionary process and weaken the effect of network topology. We use two sets of large-scale real data to evaluate the model, and the results prove its effectiveness in characterizing a real evolutionary process. Our model achieves high performance in individual action prediction and even outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Meanwhile, our model has much smaller computational complexity. This paper provides a demonstration for possible practical applications of theoretical opinion dynamics.

  2. Rise of an alternative majority against opinion leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci, K.; González-Avella, J. C.; Cosenza, M. G.

    2016-03-01

    We investigate the role of opinion leaders or influentials in the collective behavior of a social system. Opinion leaders are characterized by their unidirectional influence on other agents. We employ a model based on Axelrod's dynamics for cultural interaction among social agents that allows for non-interacting states. We find three collective phases in the space of parameters of the system, given by the fraction of opinion leaders and a quantity representing the number of available states: one ordered phase having the state imposed by the leaders; another nontrivial ordered phase consisting of a majority group in a state orthogonal or alternative to that of the opinion leaders, and a disordered phase, where many small groups coexist. We show that the spontaneous rise of an alternative group in the presence of opinion leaders depends on the existence of a minimum number of long-range connections in the underlying network. This phenomenon challenges the common idea that influentials are fundamental to propagation processes in society, such as the formation of public opinion.

  3. Effects of Groups’ Spatial Segregation on Processes of Opinion Polarization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feliciani, Thomas; Flache, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    We contribute to the literature about processes of opinion formation, investigating theoretically how the spatial segregation of two groups affects opinion polarization as a possible outcome of opinion formation. We focus on two processes of opinion polarization (negative influence and persuasive

  4. More than 30 years of opinion of French people on nuclear risks - Special release of the 2012 IRSN opinion survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois; Mur, Emmanuelle; Schuler, Matthieu; Tchernia, Jean-Francois

    2013-01-01

    Illustrated by many graphs and tables, this report comments and discusses the evolution of opinion surveys performed in France on the perception of nuclear risks through thirty annual IRSN opinion surveys. It appears that the opinion on nuclear is rather steady, and that French people have a rather rational perception of risk hierarchy. The first part outlines that unemployment is the main concern for French people, and that environmental concerns depend on current events. The second part analyses the perception of the nuclear risk with respect to other societal concerns and to other risks, and discusses the evolution of opinion from a quantitative to a qualitative sensitivity. The third part addresses the representations people have of nuclear activities and how they challenge the reality: perception of nuclear plants and of radioactive wastes, fear of a serious accident. The last part deals with issues related to responsibilities, abilities and governance: how actors of nuclear risk management are perceived, and expectations in terms of transparency and opinion plurality

  5. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  6. On the opinion formation of mobile agents with memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yunhong; Liu, Qipeng; Wang, Zhenling; Zhang, Siying

    2018-02-01

    This paper studies the opinion formation problem in a group of mobile agents using a multi-agent modeling method. Suppose that all agents move in a two-dimensional space following a certain rule. The interaction range of each agent is determined by its physical location and its opinion similarity with other agents. Moreover, agents have memory of the opinions of their previous interactive neighbors. We investigate the influence of three factors on the formation of group opinion: moving probability, interactive radius, and population density. Using simulations, we find that an opinion consensus can be achieved easily under a small moving probability and a small interactive radius, which is a relatively counterintuitive phenomenon. We also find that a large interactive radius or the model with memory can facilitate the convergence of opinions in a group to either consensus or clusters.

  7. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  8. Topological evolution of the internet public opinion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Ying; Dong, Xuefan; Liu, Yijun

    2017-11-01

    The Internet forms a platform featured with high liquidity, accessibility and concealment for the public to express their respective views on certain events, thus leading to a large network graph. Due to such environmental features, the public opinions formed on the Internet are different from those on traditional media. Studies focusing on the former area are relatively fewer. In addition, the majority of existing methods proposed for constructing the Internet public opinion topological structure are based on the classic BA model, thus resulting in drawbacks in the range of simplicity and a lack of strict deduction. Therefore, based on the complex networks theory, a model applied to describe the topology of the Internet public opinion is deduced with rigorous derivation in the present paper. Results show that the proposed expression could well reflect the degree distribution of Internet public opinion which follows an analogous power law distribution, and that the peak value and the degree distribution are not correlative to each other. Moreover, it has been also proved that compared to the classic BA model, the proposed model has better accuracy performance in the description of the degree distribution of the Internet public opinion, which contributes to future studies focusing on this area. Thus, an attempt has been made to give the first theoretical description of the Internet public opinion topology in the present paper. In addition, it is also the first paper focusing on the solution of networks degree distribution with an exponential growth form.

  9. General report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicklisch, F.

    1984-01-01

    Growing complexity of technical matter has meant that technical expertise is called upon in more and more legal proceedings. The technical expert is, in general terms, the mediator between technology and the law, he is also entrusted with the task of pointing up the differences in approach and in the nature of authority in these two areas and thus paving the way for mutual understanding. The evaluation of the technical expert's opinion is one of the cardinal problems bound up with the role of the expert in legal procedure. After the presentation of the expert's opinion, the judge is supposed to possess so much specialised knowledge that he can assess the opinion itself in scientific and technical respects and put his finger on any errors the expert may have made. This problem can only be solved via an assessment opinion. First of all, the opinion can be assessed indirectly via evaluation of the credentials and the neutrality and independence of the expert. In direct terms, the opinion can be subjected to a certain - albeit restricted - scrutiny, whether it is generally convincing, as far as the layman is competent to judge. This interpretation alone makes it possible to classify and integrate legally the technical standards and regulations represent expert statements on the scientific and technical theorems based on the knowledge and experience gained in a given area. They are designed to reflect prevailing opinion among leading representatives of the profession and can thus themselves be regarded as expert opinions. As a rule, these opinions will have such weight that - other than in exceptional cases - they will not be invalidated in procedure by deviating opinions from individual experts. (orig./HSCH) [de

  10. Towards an ICF core set for ADHD: a worldwide expert survey on ability and disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Schipper, Elles; Mahdi, Soheil; Coghill, David; de Vries, Petrus J; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Granlund, Mats; Holtmann, Martin; Karande, Sunil; Levy, Florence; Almodayfer, Omar; Rohde, Luis; Tannock, Rosemary; Bölte, Sven

    2015-12-01

    This is the second in a series of four empirical studies designed to develop International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF and Children and Youth version, ICF-CY) core sets for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The objective of this stage was to gather the opinions from international experts on which ability and disability concepts were considered relevant to functioning in ADHD. An email-based survey was carried out amongst international experts in ADHD. Relevant functional ability and disability concepts were extracted from their responses and linked to the ICF/-CY categories by two independent researchers using a standardised linking procedure. 174 experts from 11 different disciplines and 45 different countries completed the survey. Meaningful concepts identified in their responses were linked to 185 ICF/-CY categories. Of these, 83 categories were identified by at least 5 % of the experts and considered the most relevant to ADHD: 30 of these were related to Body functions (most identified: attention functions, 85 %), 30 to Activities and Participation (most identified: school education, 52 %), 20 to Environmental factors (most identified: support from immediate family, 61 %), and 3 to Body structures (most identified: structure of brain, 83 %). Experts also provided their views on particular abilities related to ADHD, naming characteristics such as high-energy levels, flexibility and resiliency. Gender differences in the expression of ADHD identified by experts pertained mainly to females showing more internalising (e.g. anxiety, low self-esteem) and less externalising behaviours (e.g. hyperactivity), leading to a risk of late- and under-diagnosis in females. Results indicate that the impact of ADHD extends beyond the core symptom domains, into all areas of life and across the lifespan. The current study in combination with three additional preparatory studies (comprehensive scoping review, focus groups, clinical study

  11. cultural variations regarding the nature and determinants of opinion ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    Keywords: Opinion leaders, cultural influence, diffusion and determinants of opinion leadership. ABSTRACT. This paper compares the findings from different countries regarding the nature and determinants of opinion leadership. ..... agricultural production among male and female farmers of the Kusenge. Parish in the ...

  12. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  13. Public opinion on water reuse options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruvold, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    Public policy on waste water reuse options must be informed by public opinion because it is the public who must pay the cost of developing the option and who will be served by the option in the future. For public policy on reuse, guidance for innovative reuse is not as simple as first believed. It seems that public opinion regarding actual community reuse options is affected by the linkage of several factors, including water conservation, health protection, treatment and distribution costs, and environmental enhancement. Probability sampling was used in 7 studies to select respondents who were queried regarding their opinions on various reclaimed water uses such as ranging from cooling tower water to full domestic use. These 7 are briefly reviewed

  14. Identifying factors for optimal development of health-related websites: a delphi study among experts and potential future users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Francine; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein

    2012-02-14

    The Internet has become a popular medium for offering tailored and targeted health promotion programs to the general public. However, suboptimal levels of program use in the target population limit the public health impact of these programs. Optimizing program development is considered as one of the main processes to increase usage rates. To distinguish factors potentially related to optimal development of health-related websites by involving both experts and potential users. By considering and incorporating the opinions of experts and potential users in the development process, involvement in the program is expected to increase, consequently resulting in increased appreciation, lower levels of attrition, and higher levels of sustained use. We conducted a systematic three-round Delphi study through the Internet. Both national and international experts (from the fields of health promotion, health psychology, e-communication, and technical Web design) and potential users were invited via email to participate. During this study an extensive list of factors potentially related to optimal development of health-related websites was identified, by focusing on factors related to layout, general and risk information provision, questionnaire use, additional services, and ease of use. Furthermore, we assessed the extent to which experts and potential users agreed on the importance of these factors. Differences as well as similarities among experts and potentials users were deduced. In total, 20 of 62 contacted experts participated in the first round (32% response rate); 60 of 200 contacted experts (30% response rate) and 210 potential users (95% response rate) completed the second-round questionnaire, and 32 of 60 contacted experts completed the third round (53% response rate). Results revealed important factors consented upon by experts and potential users (eg, ease of use, clear structure, and detailed health information provision), as well as differences regarding

  15. Conformity, Anticonformity and Polarization of Opinions: Insights from a Mathematical Model of Opinion Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyll Krueger

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding and quantifying polarization in social systems is important because of many reasons. It could for instance help to avoid segregation and conflicts in the society or to control polarized debates and predict their outcomes. In this paper, we present a version of the q-voter model of opinion dynamics with two types of responses to social influence: conformity (like in the original q-voter model and anticonformity. We put the model on a social network with the double-clique topology in order to check how the interplay between those responses impacts the opinion dynamics in a population divided into two antagonistic segments. The model is analyzed analytically, numerically and by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that the system undergoes two bifurcations as the number of cross-links between cliques changes. Below the first critical point, consensus in the entire system is possible. Thus, two antagonistic cliques may share the same opinion only if they are loosely connected. Above that point, the system ends up in a polarized state.

  16. The IRSN 2012 barometer. The opinion on risks and security of the French population. Global results; Barometre IRSN 2012. La perception des risques et de la securite par les Francais. Resultats d'ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El Jammal, Marie-Helene; Rollinger, Francois [Service de l' ouverture a la societe, Direction de la strategie, du developpement et des partenariats, Responsable du Service de l' ouverture a la societe, Direction de la strategie, du developpement et des partenariats IRSN, Institut de radioprotection et de surete nucleaire - IRSN, 31, avenue de la Division Leclerc, BP 17 - 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Mur, Emmanuelle [Bureau de la communication strategique et scientifique, Direction de la strategie, du developpement et des partenariats IRSN, Institut de radioprotection et de surete nucleaire - IRSN, 31, avenue de la Division Leclerc, BP 17 - 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2012-01-15

    This report presents and comments the results of a survey during which a sample of the French population has been questioned on their current concerns (what is the most concerning issue in the present society and in the environment, science within concerns), on their opinion on scientific expertise (who should control a risky installation, the role and image of experts, the access to expertise files, the perception of pluralist structures), on their opinion on 33 risk situations (risks to which French people feel exposed, confidence in authorities to protect them, truth of information on hazards, hierarchy of the 33 situations), on their opinion on the nuclear activity and industry (the nuclear risk, the credibility and expertise of interveners), and on the Fukushima accident (perception of the accident, quality of information, expectations on the assessment of nuclear power stations)

  17. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  18. Drivers of going concern audit opinions: empirical evidence from Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suroto Lina Rahmawati

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The study of the going concern audit opinions is an important component within the enhancement of firms’ responsibility and stewardship. A going concern audit opinions implies that the independent auditor doubt the future of the firm. This study aimed to examine the drivers of the likelihood of the going-concern audit opinions. Previous studies revealed that there were inconsistent drivers influencing the going-concern audit opinion. This study shows similar results to prior works. The result indicates that firms’ financial condition and profitability significantly affect the likelihood of the going-concern audit opinion, while firms’ size and leverage are not the determinants of the intensity of the going concern audit opinion.

  19. Different contributions of internal reviewers and external experts to labelling decisions on therapeutic indications in new drug reviews in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokota, M; Kusama, M; Matsuki, N; Ono, S

    2013-12-01

    External experts play an important role in shaping regulatory decisions in the new drug review process in the United States, Europe and Japan. No rigorous study has been performed addressing how and to what extent external experts, in contrast to internal reviewers in the agency, influence the regulatory decisions during new drug reviews. We examined their contributions in Japanese regulatory reviews in contrast to the internal reviewers, focusing on the labelling decision on therapeutic indications. With the data set of 219 new molecular entities (NMEs) approved in Japan from 2000 to 2009, we observed how proposed indications in labelling were modified in a stepwise manner during the review process and conducted multinomial logistic analysis to examine the possible mechanism behind. We found that interim assessment of indications by the internal reviewers was modified substantially by the influence of the external experts in about 20% of the 219 NMEs. Our analysis suggested that internal reviewers provided their opinion mainly based on strict review discipline, whereas external experts added flexibility and reality to their reviews. Our analysis revealed different evaluations between internal reviewers and external experts during regulatory discussions in new drug reviews and how the external panel contributes to changing internal decisions. This study provides a new and quantitative approach to better label setting by emphasizing the contributions of each stakeholder in new drug reviews, which would improve the efficiency, quality and transparency of new drug reviews to enhance public health. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. EMOTION BASED ANALYSIS OF TURKISH CUSTOMER OPINIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kahya-Ozyirmidokuz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Firms should manage their customer feedback so they can adapt to rapid changes in the environment. They have to interact with their customers to understand them and to turn their opinions into useful knowledge. Understanding customers' feelings about a product gives firmS competitive advantage through continuous market monitoring. They can thus generate improving strategies about the system to change perceptions that drive the behaviours of the customers. Firms can view their customers' happiness as a key tool for decision-making. This study calculates online product happiness by using the average emotional valence values of customer opinions. We analyse Turkish opinions about a product over a period of 3 months. We find the averages of the online emotional valence values of the product per month. We also determined the increase in happiness over time. According to the opinion valence values, we found the relations between the documents.

  1. Opinion Analysis on Rohingya using Twitter Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochmawati, N.; Wibawa, S. C.

    2018-04-01

    Rohingya is an ethnicity in Myanmar. Recently there was a conflict in the area between the Rakhine population and the Myanmar army. Many opinions are pro and contra in addressing this issue. There is a critic, there is a support and there is a neutral. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the world public opinion about the case of Rohingya. The opinion data to be processed is taken from twitter. the reason for using twitter is because twitter has become one of the popular social media and includes the most frequently visited social media. Therefore, it would be a lot of data that can be taken from twitter to be processed in the process of sentiment analysis. The grouping of opinions will be divided into 3 parts of positive, negative and neutral. the method used in grouping is the naïve Bayes method.

  2. Correlation between information diffusion and opinion evolution on social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

    2014-12-01

    Information diffusion and opinion evolution are often treated as two independent processes. Opinion models assume the topic reaches each agent and agents initially have their own ideas. In fact, the processes of information diffusion and opinion evolution often intertwine with each other. Whether the influence between these two processes plays a role in the system state is unclear. In this paper, we collected more than one million real data from a well-known social platform, and analysed large-scale user diffusion behaviour and opinion formation. We found that user inter-event time follows a two-scaling power-law distribution with two different power exponents. Public opinion stabilizes quickly and evolves toward the direction of convergence, but the consensus state is prevented by a few opponents. We propose a three-state opinion model accompanied by information diffusion. Agents form and exchange their opinions during information diffusion. Conversely, agents' opinions also influence their diffusion actions. Simulations show that the model with a correlation of the two processes produces similar statistical characteristics as empirical results. A fast epidemic process drives individual opinions to converge more obviously. Unlike previous epidemic models, the number of infected agents does not always increase with the update rate, but has a peak with an intermediate value of the rate.

  3. Correlation between information diffusion and opinion evolution on social media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Fei; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhenjiang

    2014-01-01

    Information diffusion and opinion evolution are often treated as two independent processes. Opinion models assume the topic reaches each agent and agents initially have their own ideas. In fact, the processes of information diffusion and opinion evolution often intertwine with each other. Whether the influence between these two processes plays a role in the system state is unclear. In this paper, we collected more than one million real data from a well-known social platform, and analysed large-scale user diffusion behaviour and opinion formation. We found that user inter-event time follows a two-scaling power-law distribution with two different power exponents. Public opinion stabilizes quickly and evolves toward the direction of convergence, but the consensus state is prevented by a few opponents. We propose a three-state opinion model accompanied by information diffusion. Agents form and exchange their opinions during information diffusion. Conversely, agents' opinions also influence their diffusion actions. Simulations show that the model with a correlation of the two processes produces similar statistical characteristics as empirical results. A fast epidemic process drives individual opinions to converge more obviously. Unlike previous epidemic models, the number of infected agents does not always increase with the update rate, but has a peak with an intermediate value of the rate. (paper)

  4. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, B.

    1991-12-31

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry`s practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  5. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry's practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible.

  6. Public opinion factors regarding nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper is an effort to identify, as comprehensively as possible, public concerns about nuclear power, and to assess, where possible, the relative importance of these concerns as they relate to government regulation of and policy towards nuclear power. It is based on some two dozen in-depth interviews with key communicators representing the nuclear power industry, the environmental community, and government, as well as on the parallel efforts in our research project: (1) review of federal court case law, (2) a selective examination of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) administrative process, and (3) the preceding George Mason University research project in this series. The paper synthesizes our findings about public attitudes towards nuclear power as expressed through federal court case law, NRC administrative law, public opinion surveys, and direct personal interviews. In so doing, we describe the public opinion environment in which the nuclear regulatory process must operate. Our premise is that public opinion ultimately underlies the approaches government agencies take towards regulating nuclear power, and that, to the degree that the nuclear power industry's practices are aligned with public opinion, a more favorable regulatory climate is possible

  7. the nature and determinants of opinion leadership in lesotho

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    opinion leadership, 39 percent have been nominated and thus qualify ... It obviously cannot be ruled out that with increased consultations more fields of ... 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80. 90. 100. %. >3. 3. 2. 1. Opinion leadership (No. of nominations) .... Frequency distribution per gender. Male. Female. Total. Opinion leadership.

  8. Discrete opinion dynamics on networks based on social influence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Haibo; Wang Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    A model of opinion dynamics based on social influence on networks was studied. The opinion of each agent can have integer values i = 1, 2, ..., I and opinion exchanges are restricted to connected agents. It was found that for any I ≥ 2 and self-confidence parameter 0 ≤ u i ) of the population that hold a given opinion i is a martingale, and the fraction q i of opinion i will gradually converge to (q i ). The tendency can slow down with the increase of degree assortativity of networks. When u is degree dependent, (q i ) does not possess the martingale property, however q i still converges to it. In both cases for a finite network the states of all agents will finally reach consensus. Further if there exist stubborn persons in the population whose opinions do not change over time, it was found that for degree-independent constant u, both q i and (q i ) will converge to fixed proportions which only depend on the distribution of initial obstinate persons, and naturally the final equilibrium state will be the coexistence of diverse opinions held by the stubborn people. The analytical results were verified by numerical simulations on Barabasi-Albert (BA) networks. The model highlights the influence of high-degree agents on the final consensus or coexistence state and captures some realistic features of the diffusion of opinions in social networks

  9. Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Bing

    2012-01-01

    Sentiment analysis and opinion mining is the field of study that analyzes people's opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions from written language. It is one of the most active research areas in natural language processing and is also widely studied in data mining, Web mining, and text mining. In fact, this research has spread outside of computer science to the management sciences and social sciences due to its importance to business and society as a whole. The growing importance of sentiment analysis coincides with the growth of social media such as reviews, forum discussions

  10. The expert consensus guideline series. Optimizing pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders. Introduction: methods, commentary, and summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, John M; Leucht, Stefan; Carpenter, Daniel; Docherty, John P

    2003-01-01

    A growing number of atypical antipsychotics are available for clinicians to choose from in the treatment of psychotic disorders. However, a number of important questions concerning medication selection, dosing and dose equivalence, and the management of inadequate response, compliance problems, and relapse have not been adequately addressed by clinical trials. To aid clinical decision-making, a consensus survey of expert opinion on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders was undertaken to address questions not definitively answered in the research literature. Based on a literature review, a written survey was developed with 60 questions and 994 options. Approximately half of the options were scored using a modified version of the RAND 9-point scale for rating the appropriateness of medical decisions. For the other options, the experts were asked to write in answers (e.g., average doses) or check a box to indicate their preferred answer. The survey was sent to 50 national experts on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders, 47 (94%) of whom completed it. In analyzing the responses to items rated on the 9-point scale, consensus on each option was defined as a non random distribution of scores by chi-square "goodness-of-fit"test. We assigned a categorical rank (first line/preferred choice,second line/alternate choice, third line/usually inappropriate) to each option based on the 95% confidence interval around the mean rating. Guideline tables indicating preferred treatment strategies were then developed for key clinical situations. The expert panel reached consensus on 88% of the options rated on the 9-point scale. The experts overwhelmingly endorsed the atypical antipsychotics for the treatment of psychotic disorders. Risperidone was the top choice for first-episode and multi-episode patients, with the other newer atypicals rated first line or high second line depending on the clinical situation. Clozapine and a long-acting injectable atypical

  11. Impotent science, omnipotent public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillaume, Nathalie

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Nowadays public opinion has become prominent when political leaders have themselves to vote. Even scientific or economical decisions are often taken more in accordance to these trends than to rational reasons. For a long time it has been widely accepted that a clear and pedagogical explanation was enough to make scientific issues understandable. For nearly 20 years, a true scientific and professional communication has been developed in France towards the general public to make nuclear industry acceptable. Nevertheless today, we notice that the acceptance of the nuclear option has lost many points in public polls. An accident, in the nuclear fields or in another fields, in one point or another of the planet can ruin the work of many years in communication. 1) In order to draw a more precise picture of public opinion, to follow these trends and make them more understandable, the CEA communication direction has built a 'public opinion barometer' dealing with the following fields: - Information on nuclear fields; - The nuclear actors; - The future of nuclear option; - Radioactive waste; - Risks perception; - Nuclear energy and other sources of energy; - Economy and nuclear power; - Image of nuclear. 2) Come and visit our labs to make up your own opinion: As communication methods through the classical media has, up to now, failed in changing public opinion regarding nuclear, the decision was made to offer to people the opportunity to meet searchers at work.400 'Communicating researchers' to day are volunteers to receive the public .They are trained to be able to explain their work to non specialists; they receive documents dealing with current events to help them answer to questions and they are invited to an annual general meeting (last one in January 2001). 85 laboratories are opened (civil and military ones). In 2000, nearly 10,000 visitors have come to us. In 2001, new additional operations will be lead toward young people, teachers, associations. (author)

  12. Using smartphone-based applications (apps) in workplace health promotion: The opinion of German and Austrian leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunkl, Anita; Jiménez, Paul

    2017-03-01

    Reaching the actual target group for a web-based health promotion project turns out to be a difficult task. In this article, individual and organizational factors which can influence the decision of using apps in workplace health promotion are analyzed. Furthermore, we analyzed the opinion about feedback possibilities of apps in workplace health promotion. A study with 438 leaders was conducted, as leaders can be seen as a key factor in the success of health promotion projects. The results showed that younger leaders and leaders with a more positive attitude toward workplace health promotion are more likely to use an app. Furthermore, leaders with a positive attitude are more interested in expert-feedback than in instant feedback received from an app.

  13. Discrete opinion dynamics on networks based on social influence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Haibo; Wang Xiaofan [Complex Networks and Control Lab, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 (China)

    2009-06-05

    A model of opinion dynamics based on social influence on networks was studied. The opinion of each agent can have integer values i = 1, 2, ..., I and opinion exchanges are restricted to connected agents. It was found that for any I {>=} 2 and self-confidence parameter 0 {<=} u < 1, when u is a degree-independent constant, the weighted proportion (q{sub i}) of the population that hold a given opinion i is a martingale, and the fraction q{sub i} of opinion i will gradually converge to (q{sub i}). The tendency can slow down with the increase of degree assortativity of networks. When u is degree dependent, (q{sub i}) does not possess the martingale property, however q{sub i} still converges to it. In both cases for a finite network the states of all agents will finally reach consensus. Further if there exist stubborn persons in the population whose opinions do not change over time, it was found that for degree-independent constant u, both q{sub i} and (q{sub i}) will converge to fixed proportions which only depend on the distribution of initial obstinate persons, and naturally the final equilibrium state will be the coexistence of diverse opinions held by the stubborn people. The analytical results were verified by numerical simulations on Barabasi-Albert (BA) networks. The model highlights the influence of high-degree agents on the final consensus or coexistence state and captures some realistic features of the diffusion of opinions in social networks.

  14. Swedish Opinion on Nuclear Power 1986 - 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmberg, Soeren

    2012-11-01

    This report contains the Swedish opinion on Nuclear Power and European Attitudes on Nuclear Power. It also includes European Attitudes Towards the Future of Three Energy Sources; Nuclear Energy, Wind Power and Solar Power - with a focus on the Swedish opinion. Results from measurements done by the SOM Inst. are presented.

  15. French and european opinions about energy questions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This paper presents a statistical study of french and european opinions in 1989 about energy questions. The main subjects studied are: qualities of different energy sources (coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear energy, renewable energies); perception in public opinion of nuclear industry; energy and environmental effects. 6 figs., 1 tab., 4 appendices

  16. Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

  17. Information Filtering Based on Users' Negative Opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiang; Li, Yang; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2013-05-01

    The process of heat conduction (HC) has recently found application in the information filtering [Zhang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett.99, 154301 (2007)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. The classical HC model predicts users' potential interested objects based on their interesting objects regardless to the negative opinions. In terms of the users' rating scores, we present an improved user-based HC (UHC) information model by taking into account users' positive and negative opinions. Firstly, the objects rated by users are divided into positive and negative categories, then the predicted interesting and dislike object lists are generated by the UHC model. Finally, the recommendation lists are constructed by filtering out the dislike objects from the interesting lists. By implementing the new model based on nine similarity measures, the experimental results for MovieLens and Netflix datasets show that the new model considering negative opinions could greatly enhance the accuracy, measured by the average ranking score, from 0.049 to 0.036 for Netflix and from 0.1025 to 0.0570 for Movielens dataset, reduced by 26.53% and 44.39%, respectively. Since users prefer to give positive ratings rather than negative ones, the negative opinions contain much more information than the positive ones, the negative opinions, therefore, are very important for understanding users' online collective behaviors and improving the performance of HC model.

  18. A Survey of Key Technology of Network Public Opinion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Su Ying

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The internet has become an important base for internet users to make comments because of its interactivity and fast dissemination. The outbreak of internet public opinion has become a major risk for network information security. Domestic and foreign researchers had carried out extensive and in-depth study on public opinion. Fruitful results have achieved in the basic theory research and emergency handling and other aspects of public opinion. But research on the public opinion in China is still in the initial stage, the key technology of the public opinion analysis is still as a starting point for in-depth study and discussion.

  19. Multi-lingual Opinion Mining on YouTube

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Severyn, Aliaksei; Moschitti, Alessandro; Uryupina, Olga; Plank, Barbara; Filippova, Katja

    In order to successfully apply opinion mining (OM) to the large amounts of user-generated content produced every day, we need robust models that can handle the noisy input well yet can easily be adapted to a new domain or language. We here focus on opinion mining for YouTube by (i) modeling

  20. The spreading of opposite opinions on online social networks with authoritative nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shu; Tang, Shaoting; Pei, Sen; Jiang, Shijin; Zhang, Xiao; Ding, Wenrui; Zheng, Zhiming

    2013-09-01

    The study of opinion dynamics, such as spreading and controlling of rumors, has become an important issue on social networks. Numerous models have been devised to describe this process, including epidemic models and spin models, which mainly focus on how opinions spread and interact with each other, respectively. In this paper, we propose a model that combines the spreading stage and the interaction stage for opinions to illustrate the process of dispelling a rumor. Moreover, we set up authoritative nodes, which disseminate positive opinion to counterbalance the negative opinion prevailing on online social networking sites. With analysis of the relationship among positive opinion proportion, opinion strength and the density of authoritative nodes in networks with different topologies, we demonstrate that the positive opinion proportion grows with the density of authoritative nodes until the positive opinion prevails in the entire network. In particular, the relationship is linear in homogeneous topologies. Besides, it is also noteworthy that initial locations of the negative opinion source and authoritative nodes do not influence positive opinion proportion in homogeneous networks but have a significant impact on heterogeneous networks. The results are verified by numerical simulations and are helpful to understand the mechanism of two different opinions interacting with each other on online social networking sites.

  1. Stakeholder opinions on a transformational model of pain management in long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjistavropoulos, Thomas; Janzen Claude, Jennifer A; Hadjistavropoulos, Heather; Marchildon, Gregory P; Kaasalainen, Sharon; Gallagher, Romayne; Beattie, B Lynn

    2011-07-01

    Pain in older adults with dementia who reside in long-term care (LTC) facilities tends to be undertreated, despite important guidelines designed to ameliorate this problem. A group of public policy and geriatric pain experts recently concluded that existing guidelines are not being implemented because they fail to take into account policy and resource realities. The group published a set of more feasible guidelines that confront these realities (e.g., a recommendation for very brief pain assessments that can be conducted by nursing staff at least weekly). We asked stakeholders to provide opinions on the possibility of implementation of these guidelines within their LTC facilities. Our results support the feasibility of, interest in, and desirability of implementation. They also support an increased role for nurse leadership in LTC pain management. These results could be used to strengthen advocacy efforts for improvement in pain management. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

  2. Same-sex marriage and other moral taboos : cultural acceptances, change in American public opinion and the evidence from the opinion polls

    OpenAIRE

    MORINI, Marco

    2017-01-01

    Published online: 25 January 2017 Creative Commons Licence This article analyzes the evolution of gay and lesbian rights and same-sex marriage in American public opinion. It describes how Obergefell v. Hodges, state-level decisions and the public opinion trends can be considered as the outcome of a grassroots coordinated campaign which began more than a decade ago and was able to conquer the majority of Americans. It also focuses on the American public opinion trends related to moral is...

  3. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  4. 20 CFR 416.927 - Evaluating opinion evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... the record as a whole, the more weight we will give to that opinion. (5) Specialization. We generally... “disabled” or “unable to work” does not mean that we will determine that you are disabled. (2) Other... opinions from treating sources, nontreating sources, and other nonexamining sources who do not work for us...

  5. Modeling and Simulation of Polarization in Internet Group Opinions Based on Cellular Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaofeng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Hot events on Internet always attract many people who usually form one or several opinion camps through discussion. For the problem of polarization in Internet group opinions, we propose a new model based on Cellular Automata by considering neighbors, opinion leaders, and external influences. Simulation results show the following: (1 It is easy to form the polarization for both continuous opinions and discrete opinions when we only consider neighbors influence, and continuous opinions are more effective in speeding the polarization of group. (2 Coevolution mechanism takes more time to make the system stable, and the global coupling mechanism leads the system to consensus. (3 Opinion leaders play an important role in the development of consensus in Internet group opinions. However, both taking the opinion leaders as zealots and taking some randomly selected individuals as zealots are not conductive to the consensus. (4 Double opinion leaders with consistent opinions will accelerate the formation of group consensus, but the opposite opinions will lead to group polarization. (5 Only small external influences can change the evolutionary direction of Internet group opinions.

  6. Demographic and Social Factors Influencing Public Opinion on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    macuser

    the pressing need for empirical research into these opinions, to inform and make .... understanding public opinion on the issue of prostitution has critical relevance. For ..... prostitution and presented three options for legal reform in South Africa: ...

  7. PageRank model of opinion formation on Ulam networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakhmakhchyan, L.; Shepelyansky, D.

    2013-12-01

    We consider a PageRank model of opinion formation on Ulam networks, generated by the intermittency map and the typical Chirikov map. The Ulam networks generated by these maps have certain similarities with such scale-free networks as the World Wide Web (WWW), showing an algebraic decay of the PageRank probability. We find that the opinion formation process on Ulam networks has certain similarities but also distinct features comparing to the WWW. We attribute these distinctions to internal differences in network structure of the Ulam and WWW networks. We also analyze the process of opinion formation in the frame of generalized Sznajd model which protects opinion of small communities.

  8. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  9. Cross-correlation patterns in social opinion formation with sequential data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarti, Anindya S.

    2016-11-01

    Recent research on large-scale internet data suggests existence of patterns in the collective behavior of billions of people even though each of them may pursue own activities. In this paper, we interpret online rating activity as a process of forming social opinion about individual items, where people sequentially choose a rating based on the current information set comprising all previous ratings and own preferences. We construct an opinion index from the sequence of ratings and we show that (1) movie-specific opinion converges much slower than an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sequence of ratings, (2) rating sequence for individual movies shows lesser variation compared to an i.i.d. sequence of ratings, (3) the probability density function of the asymptotic opinions has more spread than that defined over opinion arising from i.i.d. sequence of ratings, (4) opinion sequences across movies are correlated with significantly higher and lower correlation compared to opinion constructed from i.i.d. sequence of ratings, creating a bimodal cross-correlation structure. By decomposing the temporal correlation structures from panel data of movie ratings, we show that the social effects are very prominent whereas group effects cannot be differentiated from those of surrogate data and individual effects are quite small. The former explains a large part of extreme positive or negative correlations between sequences of opinions. In general, this method can be applied to any rating data to extract social or group-specific effects in correlation structures. We conclude that in this particular case, social effects are important in opinion formation process.

  10. Opinion of women about elective abortion

    OpenAIRE

    ?akmak, B?lent; Metin, Fulya Zeynep; ?zsoy, Asker Zeki; ??t?l, R?za; ?nder, Yal??n; Y?lmaz Do?ru, Hatice

    2014-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the opinions of women who presented to the hospital for elective abortion. Materials and Methods: This descriptive study was designed and conducted at our university hospital between March 2013-April 2013 by the method of face-to-face interviews with 500 women who presented to the hospital as patient or relatives of patients. Poll consisted of 6 questions about demographic characteristics and 14 questions evaluating the opinions and attitude...

  11. Modeling opinion dynamics: Theoretical analysis and continuous approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya; Balenzuela, Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We study a simple model of persuasion dynamics with long range pairwise interactions. • The continuous limit of the master equation is a nonlinear, nonlocal, first order partial differential equation. • We compute the analytical solutions to this equation, and compare them with the simulations of the dynamics. - Abstract: Frequently we revise our first opinions after talking over with other individuals because we get convinced. Argumentation is a verbal and social process aimed at convincing. It includes conversation and persuasion and the agreement is reached because the new arguments are incorporated. Given the wide range of opinion formation mathematical approaches, there are however no models of opinion dynamics with nonlocal pair interactions analytically solvable. In this paper we present a novel analytical framework developed to solve the master equations with non-local kernels. For this we used a simple model of opinion formation where individuals tend to get more similar after each interactions, no matter their opinion differences, giving rise to nonlinear differential master equation with non-local terms. Simulation results show an excellent agreement with results obtained by the theoretical estimation.

  12. The Parliamentary Council's understanding of fundamental rights, and how fundamental rights are protected against nuclear power stations in operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth-Stielow, K.

    1980-01-01

    The author explains fundamentals rights in terms of protection of the individual, giving quotations from sittings of the Parliamentary Council. Fundamental rights are to be intergrated completely into Atomic Energy Law. Expert's opinions ought to be scrutinized in depth by court. Experts have to get down to the opinion of minorities. The author advocates the theory of margins. Experts' opinions or established values are nothing but referential values if they do not represent the well-balanced result obtained after considering all relevant, qualified experts' opinions including the opinions of minorities. Following precedents set by the Federal Constitutional Court, findings of a minority of natural scientists have to be considered the state of art or realized danger. (HSCH) [de

  13. 20 CFR 404.1527 - Evaluating opinion evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... weight we will give to that opinion. (5) Specialization. We generally give more weight to the opinion of... statement that you are disabled. A statement by a medical source that you are “disabled” or “unable to work... other nonexamining sources who do not work for us. (iii) Administrative law judges may also ask for and...

  14. Mainstream medicine versus complementary and alternative medicine in the witness box: resolving the clash of ideologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kune, Randall; Kune, Gabriel

    2007-02-01

    Mainstream medical philosophy and practice differ in many respects from those of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), differences which are explored in this article. Because of a resurgence of CAM therapies, courts and tribunals will scrutinise CAM in more and more contexts in the future. Such court cases may require the resolution of conflicts between opinions of CAM and medical experts. This article considers how courts evaluate such opinions where experts hold conflicting ideologies or philosophical approaches, and addresses the following questions: Do the opinions of CAM practitioners qualify as "expert" opinions in court? How do the courts examine the basis of such opinions? Are they systematically given less weight than the opinions of mainstream medical practitioners? Will recent procedural reforms for hearing expert evidence make it easier for courts to resolve these issues?

  15. How does injury compensation affect health and disability in patients with complaints of whiplash? A qualitative study among rehabilitation experts-professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Suzan; Pieterse, Marcel; Reneman, Michiel; Verhoeven, Jan; van der Palen, Job

    2016-01-01

    To explore rehabilitation professionals' opinions about the influence and the pathways of injury compensation (IC) on health and disability in patients with whiplash associated disorder (WAD). Semi-structured interviews were performed among a purposeful selected sample of Dutch expert-professionals in the field of rehabilitation of patients with WAD. Inclusion continued until saturation was reached. Inductive and deductive thematic analyses were performed. Ten rehabilitation expert-professionals (five females), working as physician, psychologist or physiotherapist, were interviewed. All expert-professionals acknowledged that IC can influence rehabilitation, health and disability. The expert-professionals provided three causal pathways; a pathway through prolonged distress, a behavioral pathway, and patient characteristics that may either attenuate or worsen their response. They assess the influence of IC mainly with interview techniques. Most professionals discuss the potential influence of IC with their patients, because they want to give clear information to the patient. Some emphasize that their role is neutral in relation with the IC. Others mention that financial consequences can accompany functional improvement. Rehabilitation expert-professionals believe that IC may affect rehabilitation, health and disability in patients with WAD. Three pathways are mentioned by the experts-professionals. According to rehabilitation expert-professionals, an injury compensation (IC) can lead to distress, by creating a (conscious or unconscious) conflict of interests within a patient between striving for compensation on one hand, and recovery on the other hand. Patient characteristics can either attenuate or worsen IC-related distress. Reliable and valid tools need to be developed to assess the influence of IC on health, disability and rehabilitation, and to limit the negative effects. Rehabilitation professionals can discuss the possible unintended effects of IC with their

  16. French experts report on MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buecher, Bruno; Bonaïti, Catherine; Buisine, Marie-Pierre; Colas, Chrystelle; Saurin, Jean-Christophe

    2012-09-01

    Recent years have been characterised by an improvement in our knowledge of genetic determinism of adenomatous polyposes and by the description in 2002 of a new entity called "MUTYH-associated polyposis" (MAP), related to biallelic mutations of this gene. Its autosomal recessive mode of inheritance contrasts with the autosomal dominant inheritance of the classical "familial adenomatous polyposis" (FAP), associated with an APC germline mutation. Although some phenotypic features may be of value to distinguish these two conditions, their clinical "spectra" largely overlap and the differential diagnosis may be difficult. The purpose of this expertise conducted under the auspices of the French Institut National du Cancer (INCa) was to assess the current state of knowledge on MUTYH-associated polyposis and to establish some recommendations in the field of molecular analysis (indications of tests and analysis strategies for affected patients and their relatives) and of clinical management based on available data in the literature, on the results from the French molecular genetics laboratories performing MUTYH analysis and on the opinions of biologists and clinicians experts (genetic counsellors and gastroenterologists). The risk of colorectal cancer among relatives carrying a monoallelic MUTYH mutation was also studied.

  17. Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

  18. Recommendations for Risk Categorization and Prophylaxis of Invasive Fungal Diseases in Hematological Malignancies: A Critical Review of Evidence and Expert Opinion (TEO-4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Can Boğa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This is the last of a series of articles on invasive fungal infections prepared by opinion leaders in Turkey. The aim of these articles is to guide clinicians in managing invasive fungal diseases in hematological malignancies and stem cell transplantation based on the available best evidence in this field. The previous articles summarized the diagnosis and treatment of invasive fungal disease and this article aims to explain the risk categorization and guide the antifungal prophylaxis in invasive fungal disease.

  19. Diagnosis and management of AML in adults: 2017 ELN recommendations from an international expert panel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döhner, Hartmut; Estey, Elihu; Grimwade, David; Amadori, Sergio; Appelbaum, Frederick R; Büchner, Thomas; Dombret, Hervé; Ebert, Benjamin L; Fenaux, Pierre; Larson, Richard A; Levine, Ross L; Lo-Coco, Francesco; Naoe, Tomoki; Niederwieser, Dietger; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Sanz, Miguel; Sierra, Jorge; Tallman, Martin S; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Wei, Andrew H; Löwenberg, Bob; Bloomfield, Clara D

    2017-01-26

    The first edition of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) recommendations for diagnosis and management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in adults, published in 2010, has found broad acceptance by physicians and investigators caring for patients with AML. Recent advances, for example, in the discovery of the genomic landscape of the disease, in the development of assays for genetic testing and for detecting minimal residual disease (MRD), as well as in the development of novel antileukemic agents, prompted an international panel to provide updated evidence- and expert opinion-based recommendations. The recommendations include a revised version of the ELN genetic categories, a proposal for a response category based on MRD status, and criteria for progressive disease. © 2017 by The American Society of Hematology.

  20. Informe pericial psicológico en tribunales de familia: análisis de su estructura, metodología y contenido (Expert psychological reports in family courts: Evaluating their structure, methodology, and content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carles Rodríguez-Domínguez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In Spain, contested divorces involving children are frequent and entail an increased demand for expert psychological reports. This article describes the structure, methodology, and content of psychological reports provided to family courts by private expert psychologists and the family court’s expert psychosocial team. The aim was to analyse the formal structure of the reports, their demographic and professional characteristics, methodology, assessment content, guarantees and limitations of the results, professional evaluation of the informant’s statements during interviews, recommendations, and psychometric tests used. The reports from the private expert psychologists and those from the expert psychosocial teams were compared and contrasted. A template constructed by the authors was used to analyse 111 family court records of contested divorces. The results showed significant differences between the two types of report in their structure, methodology, assessment content, and psychometric tests. Highly qualified women provided the majority of the expert opinions. The reports were well-structured and included recommendations on the type of custody and custody regime for the non-custodial parent, the evaluation of parental competence, and the relationship of the children with their families.

  1. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  2. Project on Alternative Systems Study - PASS. Comparison of technology of KBS-3, MLH, VLH and VDH concepts by using an expert group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Lars; Sandstedt, H.

    1992-09-01

    This report constitutes a technical comparison and ranking of four repository concepts for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel, that have been studied by SKB: KBS-3, Medium Long Holes (MLH), Very Long Holes (VLH) and Very Deep Holes (VDH). The technical comparison is part of the project 'Project on Alternative Systems Study, PASS', which was initiated by SKB. With the objective of presenting a ranking of the four concepts. Besides this comparison of Technology the ranking is separately made for Long-term Performance and Safety, and Costs before the merging into one verdict. The ranking regarding Technology was carried out in accordance with the method Analytical Hierarchy Process, AHP, and by the aid of expert judgement in the form of a group consisting of six experts. The AHP method implies that the criteria for comparison are ordered in a hierarchy and that the ranking is carried out by pairwise comparison of the criteria. In the evaluation process a measure of the relative importance of each criterion is obtained. The result of the expert judgement exercise was that each expert individually ranked the four concepts in the following order with the top ranked alternative first: KBS-3, MLH, VLH and VDH. The common opinion among the experts was that the top ranking of KBS-3 is significant and the the major criteria used in the study could change substantially without changing the top ranking of KBS-3

  3. Understanding public opinion regarding transit in southeast Michigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    This report presents findings from a study on public opinion regarding transit in Southeast Michigan. The overall goals of this : study were to assess the nature of public opinion regarding regional transit and to understand its relation to socio-dem...

  4. Towards a consensus definition of maternal sepsis: results of a systematic review and expert consultation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonet, Mercedes; Nogueira Pileggi, Vicky; Rijken, Marcus J; Coomarasamy, Arri; Lissauer, David; Souza, João Paulo; Gülmezoglu, Ahmet Metin

    2017-05-30

    There is a need for a clear and actionable definition of maternal sepsis, in order to better assess the burden of this condition, trigger timely and effective treatment and allow comparisons across facilities and countries. The objective of this study was to review maternal sepsis definitions and identification criteria and to report on the results of an expert consultation to develop a new international definition of maternal sepsis. All original and review articles and WHO documents, as well as clinical guidelines providing definitions and/or identification criteria of maternal sepsis were included. A multidisciplinary international panel of experts was surveyed through an online consultation in March-April 2016 on their opinion on the existing sepsis definitions, including new definition of sepsis proposed for the adult population (2016 Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock) and importance of different criteria for identification of maternal sepsis. The definition was agreed using an iterative process in an expert face-to-face consensus development meeting convened by WHO and Jhpiego. Standardizing the definition of maternal sepsis and aligning it with the current understanding of sepsis in the adult population was considered a mandatory step to improve the assessment of the burden of maternal sepsis by the expert panel. The literature review and expert consultation resulted in a new WHO consensus definition "Maternal sepsis is a life-threatening condition defined as organ dysfunction resulting from infection during pregnancy, child-birth, post-abortion, or post-partum period". Plans are in progress to validate the new WHO definition of maternal sepsis in a large international population. The operationalization of the new maternal sepsis definition requires generation of a set of practical criteria to identify women with sepsis. These criteria should enable clinicians to focus on the timely initiation of actionable elements of

  5. An evidential opinion dynamics model based on heterogeneous social influential power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Xi; Mo, Hongming; Deng, Yong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We use Dempster–Shafer evidence theory to handle the uncertainty of the communication. •An ice-breaking uncertainty elimination process in opinion evolution is demonstrated. •The influential power of individuals and the feedback mechanism are considered. •The power-law characteristic of the final influential power distribution is depicted. -- Abstract: This paper introduces an evidential opinion dynamics model combing Dempster–Shafer evidence theory to explore the opinion evolution. Our model is an improvement of the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model. The process of people updating their opinions is regarded as a decision making process. The unavoidable uncertainty of the opinion evolution is handled by Dempster–Shafer evidence theory. Thereby, a new opinion group, i.e.the neutrals, is introduced into the system. Simulations show the neutral group plays a significant part in the opinion evolution. An opinion ice-breaking process at the early stage of the opinion evolution is observed. It is found that the consensus is not always reached then clusters emerge instead, which depends on the proportions of supporters, neutrals and opponents. The individual’s influential power is taken into account. With the positive feedback mechanism of people’s influential power, the obtained results are in accordance with people’s daily cognition such as the Authority Effect and the Matthew Effect. The final influential power distribution of all individuals in our model presents power-law characteristic

  6. Patient engagement with surgical site infection prevention: an expert panel perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Tartari

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite remarkable developments in the use of surgical techniques, ergonomic advancements in the operating room, and implementation of bundles, surgical site infections (SSIs remain a substantial burden, associated with increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. National and international recommendations to prevent SSIs have been published, including recent guidelines by the World Health Organization, but implementation into clinical practice remains an unresolved issue. SSI improvement programs require an integrative approach with measures taken during the pre-, intra- and postoperative care from the numerous stakeholders involved. The current SSI prevention strategies have focused mainly on the role of healthcare workers (HCWs and procedure related risk factors. The importance and influence of patient participation is becoming an increasingly important concept and advocated as a means to improve patient safety. Novel interventions supporting an active participative role within SSI prevention programs have not been assessed. Empowering patients with information they require to engage in the process of SSI prevention could play a major role for the implementation of recommendations. Based on available scientific evidence, a panel of experts evaluated options for patient involvement in order to provide pragmatic recommendations for pre-, intra- and postoperative activities for the prevention of SSIs. Recommendations were based on existing guidelines and expert opinion. As a result, 9 recommendations for the surgical patient are presented here, including a practice brief in the form of a patient information leaflet. HCWs can use this information to educate patients and allow patient engagement.

  7. Patient engagement with surgical site infection prevention: an expert panel perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tartari, E; Weterings, V; Gastmeier, P; Rodríguez Baño, J; Widmer, A; Kluytmans, J; Voss, A

    2017-01-01

    Despite remarkable developments in the use of surgical techniques, ergonomic advancements in the operating room, and implementation of bundles, surgical site infections (SSIs) remain a substantial burden, associated with increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. National and international recommendations to prevent SSIs have been published, including recent guidelines by the World Health Organization, but implementation into clinical practice remains an unresolved issue. SSI improvement programs require an integrative approach with measures taken during the pre-, intra- and postoperative care from the numerous stakeholders involved. The current SSI prevention strategies have focused mainly on the role of healthcare workers (HCWs) and procedure related risk factors. The importance and influence of patient participation is becoming an increasingly important concept and advocated as a means to improve patient safety. Novel interventions supporting an active participative role within SSI prevention programs have not been assessed. Empowering patients with information they require to engage in the process of SSI prevention could play a major role for the implementation of recommendations. Based on available scientific evidence, a panel of experts evaluated options for patient involvement in order to provide pragmatic recommendations for pre-, intra- and postoperative activities for the prevention of SSIs. Recommendations were based on existing guidelines and expert opinion. As a result, 9 recommendations for the surgical patient are presented here, including a practice brief in the form of a patient information leaflet. HCWs can use this information to educate patients and allow patient engagement.

  8. Ask the experts: the challenges and benefits of flow chemistry to optimize drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Neal; Gernaey, Krist V; Jamison, Timothy F; Kircher, Manfred; Wiles, Charlotte; Leadbeater, Nicholas E; Sandford, Graham; Richardson, Paul

    2012-09-01

    Against a backdrop of a struggling economic and regulatory climate, pharmaceutical companies have recently been forced to develop new ways to provide more efficient technology to meet the demands of a competitive drug industry. This issue, coupled with an increase in patent legislation and a rising generics market, makes these themes common issues in the growth of drug development. As a consequence, the importance of process chemistry and scale-up has never been more under the spotlight. Future Medicinal Chemistry wishes to share the thoughts and opinions of a variety of experts from this field, discussing issues concerning the use of flow chemistry to optimize drug development, the potential regulatory and environmental challenges faced with this, and whether the academic and industrial sectors could benefit from a more harmonized system relevant to process chemistry.

  9. Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

    2014-01-01

    to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

  10. Do gender and personality traits (BFI-10) influence self-perceived opinion leadership?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudzina, Frantisek

    2016-01-01

    . This approach would require to identify opinion leaders. This paper investigates whether gender and personality traits can predict opinion leadership. Methodology/methods: The paper can be perceived as a replication in a loose sense of the term, since it replicates only a part of a previously published model...... and in one's own opinion (two variables). Generalized linear models (GLM) and Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient are used to analyze data. Scientific aim: The aim of the paper is to estimate impact of gender and personality traits on opinion leadership. Findings: Extraversion is the personality...... trait closest related to opinion leadership regardless whether it is self-perceived in the eyes of others or in one's own opinion. Opinion leadership in one's own opinion can be predicted even using neuroticism, and conscientiousness. The three traits are consistent with previous findings. Unlike...

  11. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Law for nuclear experts only

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

    1980-02-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

  13. The learning continuum based on student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material on physiological aspects from teachers's opinions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadi, Ria Fitriyani; Subali, Bambang

    2017-08-01

    The scope of learning continuum at the conceptual knowledge is formulated based on the student's level of competence and specific pedagogical learning material. The purpose of this study is to develop a learning continuum of specific pedagogical material aspects of physiology targeted for students in primary and secondary education. This research was conducted in Province of Yogyakarta Special Region from October 2016 to January 2017. The method used in this study was survey method. The data were collected using questionnaire that had been validated from the aspects of construct validity and experts judgements. Respondents in this study consist of 281 Science/Biology teachers at Public Junior and Senior High Schools in the Province of Yogyakarta Special Region which spread in Yogyakarta city and 4 regencies namely Sleman, Bantul, Kulonprogo, and Gunungkidul. The data were taken using a census. Data were analyzed using a descriptive analysis technique. The results show the learning continuum of physiology based on teachers's opinion from grade VII, VIII, and IX are taught in grade VII, VIII, IX and X on level of C2 (understanding) and the learning continuum of physiology based on teachers's opinion from grade X, XI and XII are taught in grade X and XI on level of C2 (understanding), C3 (applying), and C4 (analyzing) based on teachers's opinions. The conclusion is that many teachers refer to the existing curriculum rather than their own original idea for developing learning continuum.

  14. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  15. 42 CFR 411.382 - CMS's right to rescind advisory opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false CMS's right to rescind advisory opinions. 411.382... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.382 CMS's right to rescind advisory opinions. Any advice CMS gives in an opinion does not prejudice its right to reconsider...

  16. EFSA CEF Panel (EFSA Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids), 2013. Scientific Opinion on Flavouring Group Evaluation 76, Revision 1 (FGE.76Rev1)

    OpenAIRE

    Beltoft, Vibe Meister; Binderup, Mona-Lise; Frandsen, Henrik Lauritz; Lund, Pia; Nørby, Karin Kristiane

    2013-01-01

    The Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids of the European Food Safety Authority was requested to consider evaluations of flavouring substances assessed since 2000 by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), and to decide whether further evaluation is necessary, as laid down in Commission Regulation (EC) No 1565/2000. The present opinion concerns a group of 26 sulphur-containing heterocyclic compounds evaluated by the JECFA at the 59th m...

  17. Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

    2010-12-01

    Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

  18. Peer-to-peer and mass communication effect on opinion shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindler, A.; Solomon, S.; Stauffer, D.

    2013-02-01

    Opinion dynamics is studied through a minimal Ising model with three main influences (fields): personal conservatism (power-law distributed), inter-personal and group pressure, and a global field incorporating peer-to-peer and mass communications, which is generated bottom-up from the faction supporting the new opinion. A rich phase diagram appears separating possible terminal stages of the opinion diffusion, characterizing failure phases by the features of the individuals who had changed their opinion. An exhaustive solution of the model is produced, allowing predictions to be made on the opinion’s assimilation in the society.

  19. Opinion formation driven by PageRank node influence on directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

    2015-10-01

    We study a two states opinion formation model driven by PageRank node influence and report an extensive numerical study on how PageRank affects collective opinion formations in large-scale empirical directed networks. In our model the opinion of a node can be updated by the sum of its neighbor nodes' opinions weighted by the node influence of the neighbor nodes at each step. We consider PageRank probability and its sublinear power as node influence measures and investigate evolution of opinion under various conditions. First, we observe that all networks reach steady state opinion after a certain relaxation time. This time scale is decreasing with the heterogeneity of node influence in the networks. Second, we find that our model shows consensus and non-consensus behavior in steady state depending on types of networks: Web graph, citation network of physics articles, and LiveJournal social network show non-consensus behavior while Wikipedia article network shows consensus behavior. Third, we find that a more heterogeneous influence distribution leads to a more uniform opinion state in the cases of Web graph, Wikipedia, and Livejournal. However, the opposite behavior is observed in the citation network. Finally we identify that a small number of influential nodes can impose their own opinion on significant fraction of other nodes in all considered networks. Our study shows that the effects of heterogeneity of node influence on opinion formation can be significant and suggests further investigations on the interplay between node influence and collective opinion in networks.

  20. Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

    2017-09-19

    Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

  1. Public opinion and nuclear power decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benson, B.

    1991-01-01

    This document discusses public opinion regarding nuclear power which is particularly difficult to tie down because of five important paradoxes that characterize it: it can be based on sound reason, but also on intense emotion; it is both national and local in perspective; at varying times it has seen nuclear power as both ''clean'' and ''dirty''; it believes nuclear power is both economic, and uneconomic; and nuclear power is perceived as having a fairly safe record, but being potentially unsafe. Equally as complex as the process by which public opinion is formed is the process by which it is converted into public policy. The American political system has numerous checks and balances designed to moderate the power of public opinion. A complex series of legislative, judicial, and executive branch hurdles must be cleared before any idea, however popular, can become day-to-day operating reality in government. As a result, major changes in policy or programs are difficult, and we may expect that nuclear power will be no different; radical change in one direction or the other is unlikely. Nevertheless, carefully focused programs could achieve modest progress, and carefully designed public opinion surveys could support such programs

  2. Abbott Opinions #1-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Education Law Center, Inc., Newark, NJ.

    This document contains the following "Abbott Opinions": (1) "Early Childhood Education"; (2) "Adequate School Facilities"; (3) "Supplemental Programs and Whole School Reform in Elementary Schools"; (4) "Supplemental Programs in Middle and High Schools"; and (5) "Planning Programs and Budgets…

  3. (Miscommunication across the Borders: Politics, Media and Public Opinion in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banu Baybars-Hawks

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The American sociologist Charles Horton Cooley defined public opinion "as a process of interaction and mutual influence rather than a state of broad agreement" in 1918. On the other hand, according to the American political scientist V.O. Key, public opinion was "opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed," in 1961. During the 1990s, advances in statistical and demographic analysis helped the development of an understanding of public opinion as the collective view of a defined population, such as a particular demographic or ethnic group. In this view, the influence of public opinion is not restricted to politics and elections. Public opinion is considered a powerful force in many other spheres, such as culture, fashion, literature and the arts, consumer spending, and marketing and public relations.1 Attitudes and values play a crucial role in the development of public opinion. Different variables embedded in the political, social and media structure of the country also have potential to make an impact on public opinion. These dynamics vary from the economics to the judicial system and democratic principles functioning in that country. On the other hand, public opinion has a power to shape politics and media's priorities in reporting. The interaction among politics, public opinion and media of one country can be better analyzed with the findings of public opinion research administered regularly. In Turkey, the research on and analysis of public opinion are most frequent during the election times. Therefore, it seems necessary to measure the public opinion more regularly to test the relationships among political, public and media agendas. Accordingly, the current study seeks to fill this gap. It is argued that in the absence of timely feedback from public surveys, decisions and policies for improving different services and institutions functioning in the country might not achieve their expected goal. The findings of

  4. Opinion formation on multiplex scale-free networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Vu Xuan; Xiao, Gaoxi; Xu, Xin-Jian; Li, Guoqi; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Most individuals, if not all, live in various social networks. The formation of opinion systems is an outcome of social interactions and information propagation occurring in such networks. We study the opinion formation with a new rule of pairwise interactions in the novel version of the well-known Deffuant model on multiplex networks composed of two layers, each of which is a scale-free network. It is found that in a duplex network composed of two identical layers, the presence of the multiplexity helps either diminish or enhance opinion diversity depending on the relative magnitudes of tolerance ranges characterizing the degree of openness/tolerance on both layers: there is a steady separation between different regions of tolerance range values on two network layers where multiplexity plays two different roles, respectively. Additionally, the two critical tolerance ranges follow a one-sum rule; that is, each of the layers reaches a complete consensus only if the sum of the tolerance ranges on the two layers is greater than a constant approximately equaling 1, the double of the critical bound on a corresponding isolated network. A further investigation of the coupling between constituent layers quantified by a link overlap parameter reveals that as the layers are loosely coupled, the two opinion systems co-evolve independently, but when the inter-layer coupling is sufficiently strong, a monotonic behavior is observed: an increase in the tolerance range of a layer causes a decline in the opinion diversity on the other layer regardless of the magnitudes of tolerance ranges associated with the layers in question.

  5. Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

    2018-06-01

    Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Effect of users' opinion evolution on information diffusion in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hengmin; Kong, Yuehan; Wei, Jing; Ma, Jing

    2018-02-01

    The process of topic propagation always interweaves information diffusion and opinion evolution, but most previous works studied the models of information diffusion and opinion evolution separately, and seldom focused on their interaction of each other. To shed light on the effect of users' opinion evolution on information diffusion in online social networks, we proposed a model which incorporates opinion evolution into the process of topic propagation. Several real topics propagating on Sina Microblog were collected to analyze individuals' propagation intentions, and different propagation intentions were considered in the model. The topic propagation was simulated to explore the impact of different opinion distributions and intervention with opposite opinion on information diffusion. Results show that the topic with one-sided opinions can spread faster and more widely, and intervention with opposite opinion is an effective measure to guide the topic propagation. The earlier to intervene, the more effectively the topic propagation would be guided.

  7. The Art of Sharing the Diagnosis and Management of Alzheimer's Disease With Patients and Caregivers: Recommendations of an Expert Consensus Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Daniel D.; Griffith, Patrick A.; Kerwin, Diana R.; Hunt, Gail; Hall, Eric J.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To develop a set of recommendations for primary care physicians (PCPs) suggesting how best to communicate with patients, caregivers, and other family members regarding the diagnosis and management of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Participants: A national roundtable of 6 leading professionals involved in treating or advocating for patients with AD was convened on March 14, 2008. This roundtable included 4 leading academic physicians with diverse backgrounds (a geriatric psychiatrist, a neuropsychiatrist, a neurologist, and a geriatrician) from geographically diverse regions of the United States, who were invited on the basis of their national reputation in the field and experience working with minority populations with dementia; the executive director of a national AD advocacy organization; the executive director of a national advocacy organization for caregivers; and a medical correspondent with expertise in interviewing and small group leadership. Evidence: Expert opinion supported by academic literature (search limited to PubMed, English language, 1996–2008, search terms: Alzheimer's disease, primary care, diagnosis, management, caregiver, family, patient-physician relationship). Consensus Process: Moderated dialogue aimed at generating consensus opinion; only statements endorsed by all authors were included in the final article. Conclusions: Diagnosis and management of AD by PCPs, utilizing specialist consultation as needed, may contribute to earlier diagnosis and treatment, improved doctor-patient and doctor-caregiver communication, increased attention to caregiver needs, and better clinical and quality-of-life outcomes for patients and caregivers. A set of expert panel recommendations describing practical strategies for achieving these goals was successfully developed. PMID:20582302

  8. The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matto Mildenberger

    Full Text Available While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

  9. The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mildenberger, Matto; Howe, Peter; Lachapelle, Erick; Stokes, Leah; Marlon, Jennifer; Gravelle, Timothy

    2016-01-01

    While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of climate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We demonstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is happening. Belief in climate change's causes varies geographically, with more people attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in every province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US climate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at national, provincial and local levels.

  10. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  11. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  12. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  13. Forming of political opinion and decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, K.

    1980-01-01

    Taking the SNR-300 reactor in Kalkar as an example, the process of forming of political opinion and decision is reconstructed in order to get a picture of typical consensus- and conflict patterns in the discussion of safety problems. On this basis, it should be possible to derive a freedom of action for the political and administrative managing of safety matters by means of feed back with social groups. As a crucial point the aspects concerning the steps of the forming of political opinion and decision are examined. (DG) [de

  14. Do Others’ Opinion Matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fei; Xiao, Bo Sophia; Lim, Eric T. K.

    2016-01-01

    when experiencing dissonance in e-WOM, male consumers value opinionated review over numerical rating and vice versa for their female counterparts. The results of our field survey on a custom developed website with 115 college students empirically validated our hypothesized relationships and also...

  15. MindDigger: Feature Identification and Opinion Association for Chinese Movie Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lili; Li, Chunping

    In this paper, we present a prototype system called MindDigger, which can be used to analyze the opinions in Chinese movie reviews. Different from previous research that employed techniques on product reviews, we focus on Chinese movie reviews, in which opinions are expressed in subtle and varied ways. The system designed in this work aims to extract the opinion expressions and assign them to the corresponding features. The core tasks include feature and opinion extraction, and feature-opinion association. To deal with Chinese effectively, several novel approaches based on syntactic analysis are proposed in this paper. Running results show the performance is satisfactory.

  16. Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggermont, G.

    2000-01-01

    As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

  17. PSG-EXPERT. An expert system for the diagnosis of sleep disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fred, A; Filipe, J; Partinen, M; Paiva, T

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes PSG-EXPERT, an expert system in the domain of sleep disorders exploring polysomnographic data. The developed software tool is addressed from two points of view: (1)--as an integrated environment for the development of diagnosis-oriented expert systems; (2)--as an auxiliary diagnosis tool in the particular domain of sleep disorders. Developed over a Windows platform, this software tool extends one of the most popular shells--CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) with the following features: backward chaining engine; graph-based explanation facilities; knowledge editor including a fuzzy fact editor and a rules editor, with facts-rules integrity checking; belief revision mechanism; built-in case generator and validation module. It therefore provides graphical support for knowledge acquisition, edition, explanation and validation. From an application domain point of view, PSG-Expert is an auxiliary diagnosis system for sleep disorders based on polysomnographic data, that aims at assisting the medical expert in his diagnosis task by providing automatic analysis of polysomnographic data, summarising the results of this analysis in terms of a report of major findings and possible diagnosis consistent with the polysomnographic data. Sleep disorders classification follows the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. Major features of the system include: browsing on patients data records; structured navigation on Sleep Disorders descriptions according to ASDA definitions; internet links to related pages; diagnosis consistent with polysomnographic data; graphical user-interface including graph-based explanatory facilities; uncertainty modelling and belief revision; production of reports; connection to remote databases.

  18. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  19. Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: m.m.leeuwenburgh@amc.uva.nl [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2014-01-15

    Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.

  20. Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher

  1. Opinion Spreading with Mobility on Scale-Free Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiang, Guo; Xing-Wen, Chen; Jian-Guo, Liu; Bing-Hong, Wang; Tao, Zhou; Yu-Hua, Yao

    2008-01-01

    A continuum opinion dynamic model is presented based on two rules. The first one considers the mobilities of the individuals, the second one supposes that the individuals update their opinions independently. The results of the model indicate that the bounded confidence in c , separating consensus and incoherent states, of a scale-free network is much smaller than the one of a lattice. If the system can reach the consensus state, the sum of all individuals' opinion change O c (t) quickly decreases in an exponential form, while if it reaches the incoherent state finally O c (t) decreases slowly and has the punctuated equilibrium characteristic

  2. Zealotry effects on opinion dynamics in the adaptive voter model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klamser, Pascal P.; Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-11-01

    The adaptive voter model has been widely studied as a conceptual model for opinion formation processes on time-evolving social networks. Past studies on the effect of zealots, i.e., nodes aiming to spread their fixed opinion throughout the system, only considered the voter model on a static network. Here we extend the study of zealotry to the case of an adaptive network topology co-evolving with the state of the nodes and investigate opinion spreading induced by zealots depending on their initial density and connectedness. Numerical simulations reveal that below the fragmentation threshold a low density of zealots is sufficient to spread their opinion to the whole network. Beyond the transition point, zealots must exhibit an increased degree as compared to ordinary nodes for an efficient spreading of their opinion. We verify the numerical findings using a mean-field approximation of the model yielding a low-dimensional set of coupled ordinary differential equations. Our results imply that the spreading of the zealots' opinion in the adaptive voter model is strongly dependent on the link rewiring probability and the average degree of normal nodes in comparison with that of the zealots. In order to avoid a complete dominance of the zealots' opinion, there are two possible strategies for the remaining nodes: adjusting the probability of rewiring and/or the number of connections with other nodes, respectively.

  3. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  4. Treating tension-type headache -- an expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Lars; Jensen, Rigmor

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Tension-type headache (TTH) is a highly prevalent disorder with enormous costs for the individual and the society. AREAS COVERED: Nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments are reviewed. Electromyographic (EMG) biofeedback has a documented effect in TTH, while cognitive-behav...... and clarify how treatment programs can be optimized and combined to best suit the individual patient. Frequent TTH may be difficult to treat, but an acceptable result can usually be obtained by a combination of nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments....

  5. Impact of gender and personality traits (BFI-10) on opinion leadership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudzina, Frantisek; Pavlicek, Antonin

    2017-01-01

    The paper studies the influence of gender and personality traits on opinion leadership. It tries to partially replicate the study about effect of Big Five Inventory (BFI) personality traits on domain-specific opinion leadership mediated through objective knowledge and generalized opinion leadership...

  6. 42 CFR 1008.31 - OIG fees for the cost of advisory opinions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false OIG fees for the cost of advisory opinions. 1008.31... SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES ADVISORY OPINIONS BY THE OIG Advisory Opinion Fees § 1008.31 OIG fees for the cost of advisory opinions. (a) Responsibility for fees. The requestor is responsible for paying a fee...

  7. PENGARUH MODIFIED AUDIT OPINION TERHADAP BORROWING CASH FLOW DAN INVESTMENT CASH FLOW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puspita Hardina Cahyaningrum

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines and analyzes the economic consequences of modified audit opinion on borrowing cash flow and investment cash flow. Panel data model was used to observe the research. The sample of this study was 247 companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for the years 2008-2010. The results show that modified audit opinion, except unqualified opinion with explanatory paragraph about going concern, did not affect borrowing cash flow because audit opinion was not the only consideration for granting credit by creditors. Companies receiving modified audit opinion were proven using more operating cash flow for investing shown in investment cash flow, especially companies receiving unqualified opinion with explanatory paragraph about going concern.

  8. A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

  9. An opinion formation based binary optimization approach for feature selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamedmoghadam, Homayoun; Jalili, Mahdi; Yu, Xinghuo

    2018-02-01

    This paper proposed a novel optimization method based on opinion formation in complex network systems. The proposed optimization technique mimics human-human interaction mechanism based on a mathematical model derived from social sciences. Our method encodes a subset of selected features to the opinion of an artificial agent and simulates the opinion formation process among a population of agents to solve the feature selection problem. The agents interact using an underlying interaction network structure and get into consensus in their opinions, while finding better solutions to the problem. A number of mechanisms are employed to avoid getting trapped in local minima. We compare the performance of the proposed method with a number of classical population-based optimization methods and a state-of-the-art opinion formation based method. Our experiments on a number of high dimensional datasets reveal outperformance of the proposed algorithm over others.

  10. The effects of information and social conformity on opinion change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallinson, Daniel J; Hatemi, Peter K

    2018-01-01

    Extant research shows that social pressures influence acts of political participation, such as turning out to vote. However, we know less about how conformity pressures affect one's deeply held political values and opinions. Using a discussion-based experiment, we untangle the unique and combined effects of information and social pressure on a political opinion that is highly salient, politically charged, and part of one's identity. We find that while information plays a role in changing a person's opinion, the social delivery of that information has the greatest effect. Thirty three percent of individuals in our treatment condition change their opinion due to the social delivery of information, while ten percent respond only to social pressure and ten percent respond only to information. Participants that change their opinion due to social pressure in our experiment are more conservative politically, conscientious, and neurotic than those that did not.

  11. The effects of information and social conformity on opinion change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K.

    2018-01-01

    Extant research shows that social pressures influence acts of political participation, such as turning out to vote. However, we know less about how conformity pressures affect one’s deeply held political values and opinions. Using a discussion-based experiment, we untangle the unique and combined effects of information and social pressure on a political opinion that is highly salient, politically charged, and part of one’s identity. We find that while information plays a role in changing a person’s opinion, the social delivery of that information has the greatest effect. Thirty three percent of individuals in our treatment condition change their opinion due to the social delivery of information, while ten percent respond only to social pressure and ten percent respond only to information. Participants that change their opinion due to social pressure in our experiment are more conservative politically, conscientious, and neurotic than those that did not. PMID:29718958

  12. A blended knowledge translation initiative to improve colorectal cancer staging [ISRCTN56824239

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan David P

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A significant gap has been documented between best practice and the actual practice of surgery. Our group identified that colorectal cancer staging in Ontario was suboptimal and subsequently developed a knowledge translation strategy using the principles of social marketing and the influence of expert and local opinion leaders for colorectal cancer. Methods/Design Opinion leaders were identified using the Hiss methodology. Hospitals in Ontario were cluster-randomized to one of two intervention arms. Both groups were exposed to a formal continuing medical education session given by the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer. In the treatment group the local Opinion Leader for colorectal cancer was detailed by the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer and received a toolkit. Forty-two centres agreed to have the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer come and give a formal continuing medical education session that lasted between 50 minutes and 4 hours. No centres refused the intervention. These sessions were generally well attended by most surgeons, pathologists and other health care professionals at each centre. In addition all but one of the local opinion leaders for colorectal cancer met with the expert opinion leader for colorectal cancer for the academic detailing session that lasted between 15 and 30 minutes. Discussion We have enacted a unique study that has attempted to induce practice change among surgeons and pathologists using an adapted social marketing model that utilized the influence of both expert and local opinion leaders for colorectal cancer in a large geographic area with diverse practice settings.

  13. TU Delft expert judgment data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

  14. Expert system technology for the military

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

  15. Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

  16. Characteristics associated with requests by pathologists for second opinions on breast biopsies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Berta M; Nelson, Heidi D; Weaver, Donald L; Frederick, Paul D; Allison, Kimberly H; Onega, Tracy; Carney, Patricia A; Tosteson, Anna N A; Elmore, Joann G

    2017-11-01

    Second opinions in pathology improve patient safety by reducing diagnostic errors, leading to more appropriate clinical treatment decisions. Little objective data are available regarding the factors triggering a request for second opinion despite second opinion consultations being part of the diagnostic system of pathology. Therefore we sought to assess breast biopsy cases and interpreting pathologists characteristics associated with second opinion requests. Collected pathologist surveys and their interpretations of 60 test set cases were used to explore the relationships between case characteristics, pathologist characteristics and case perceptions, and requests for second opinions. Data were evaluated by logistic regression and generalised estimating equations. 115 pathologists provided 6900 assessments; pathologists requested second opinions on 70% (4827/6900) of their assessments 36% (1731/4827) of these would not have been required by policy. All associations between case characteristics and requesting second opinions were statistically significant, including diagnostic category, breast density, biopsy type, and number of diagnoses noted per case. Exclusive of institutional policies, pathologists wanted second opinions most frequently for atypia (66%) and least frequently for invasive cancer (20%). Second opinion rates were higher when the pathologist had lower assessment confidence, in cases with higher perceived difficulty, and cases with borderline diagnoses. Pathologists request second opinions for challenging cases, particularly those with atypia, high breast density, core needle biopsies, or many co-existing diagnoses. Further studies should evaluate whether the case characteristics identified in this study could be used as clinical criteria to prompt system-level strategies for mandating second opinions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Differing professional views or opinions: 1994 Special Review Panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-09-01

    In July 1994, the Executive Director for Operations of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) appointed a Special Review Panel to assess the Differing Professional View or Opinion (DPV/DPO) process, including its effectiveness, how well it is understood by employees, and the organizational climate for having such views aired and properly decided. An additional area within this review was to address the effectiveness of the DPO procedures as they pertain to public access and confidentiality. Further, the Panel was charged with the review of the submittals completed since the last review to identify employees who made significant contributions to the agency or to the public health and safety but had not been adequately recognized for this contribution. The report presents the Special Review Panel's evaluation of the NRC's current process for dealing with Differing Professional Views or Opinions. Provided in this report are the results of an employee opinion survey on the process; highlights and suggestions from interviews with individuals who had submitted a Differing Professional View or Opinion, as well as with agency managers directly involved with the Differing Professional Views or Opinions process; and the Special Review Panel's recommendations for improving the DPV/DPO process

  18. OGC Precedent Opinion 2-2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — Osborn v. Nicholson 21 Vet. App. 223 (2007) - Effect on Existing General Counsel Opinions, Application to other Benefit Programs, and Applicability to Series HH U.S....

  19. Naming it 'nano': Expert views on 'nano' terminology in informed consent forms of first-in-human nanomedicine trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satalkar, Priya; Elger, Bernice Simone; Shaw, David

    2016-04-01

    Obtaining valid informed consent (IC) can be challenging in first-in-human (FIH) trials in nanomedicine due to the complex interventions, the hype and hope concerning potential benefits, and fear of harms attributed to 'nano' particles. We describe and analyze the opinions of expert stakeholders involved in translational nanomedicine regarding explicit use of 'nano' terminology in IC documents. We draw on content analysis of 46 in-depth interviews with European and North American stakeholders. We received a spectrum of responses (reluctance, ambivalence, absolute insistence) on explicit mention of 'nano' in IC forms with underlying reasons. We conclude that consistent, clear and honest communication regarding the 'nano' dimension of investigational product is critical in IC forms of FIH trials.

  20. Nuclear power engineering: Public understanding and public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kryshev, A.I.; Sazykina, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    Subjective and objective reasons for the formation of public opinion about nuclear power engineering of Russia were analyzed. Some methodological errors in work with the Russian public on the problems of nuclear energy and possible methods of their correction were discussed. The social groups of the general public, which are of greatest importance in forming the attitude towards nuclear power engineering were indicated. The conclusion was reached that opinion of the ordinary population is often indicative of real drawbacks in the work of specialists in the nuclear fuel cycle. Consequently, careful surveys of public opinion about the problems of the nuclear industry should be very useful in organizing research work properly and improving the radiation safety. (author)

  1. [State school children's opinions regarding violence in the media].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piedrahita S, Laura E

    2009-01-01

    To describe the opinion of schoolage children, from a public school, regarding the violence they perceive in the media. Descriptive-exploratory research with a sample, selected according to the child's age in a public school. Quantitative data were collected. There were found common issues related to the child's opinion about the violence present in the media such as frequent exposure to the media violence and lack of parental supervision. Social context and constant exposure to the media violence affect the children's opinion about the violence phenomenon and their predisposition to it.

  2. European dental students' opinions on their local anaesthesia education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, H.S.; Tan, L.L.S.; van der Spek, S.J.; Baart, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate students’ opinion about theoretical and clinical training in local anaesthesia at different European dental schools. Materials and Methods: A questionnaire was designed to collect information about local anaesthesia teaching. Students’ opinion was quantified with five-point

  3. The importance of opinion leaders in agricultural production among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The importance of opinion leaders in agricultural production among male and ... farmers do not have adequate access to extension services due to, amongst others, the ... In view of these problems, the role of opinion leaders is important and ...

  4. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  5. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Comparison between the public opinion and the image of public opinion on nuclear power generation. From the viewpoint of risk communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Toshihiro

    2003-01-01

    One objective for risk communication is to improve the understanding of public values and concerns. This paper examined the perceptions of nuclear power plant engineers of an electric power company, about public values and concerns regarding nuclear power generation (image of public opinion), and compared them with actual public opinion. The image of public opinion was surveyed by questionnaire method. In the questionnaire, the subjects were asked to estimate the most preferred answer given to questions posed to the Japanese public. For some questions, subjects were asked to estimate the percentage of Japanese who selected a certain answer for a question or the distribution of the answers. The results showed: (1) Nuclear power plant engineers correctly recognized the existence of high anxiety in the public's mind concerning nuclear power generation. (2) Engineers were apt to underestimate the percentage of Japanese who think nuclear power generation is useful in our society. (3) The majority of Japanese assume that when nuclear power plant accidents occur radioactive leakage is so severe that it affects the health of inhabitants. However, the engineers were apt to estimate that the majority of Japanese think radioactive leakage is not so severe. (4) Engineers correctly recognized that the majority of Japanese think it is a realistic option to use the nuclear power generation. However, they incorrectly estimated that only 40% of Japanese think it is a realistic option to use the nuclear power generation when in fact 67% think so. These gaps between public opinion and the image of public opinion by the engineers were classified into two groups, one that stems from the cognitive bias when people estimate public opinion and one that is inherent in the engineers of nuclear power plants. (author)

  7. On the empirical relevance of the transient in opinion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banisch, Sven; Araujo, Tanya

    2010-01-01

    While the number and variety of models to explain opinion exchange dynamics is huge, attempts to justify the model results using empirical data are relatively rare. As linking to real data is essential for establishing model credibility, this Letter develops an empirical confirmation experiment by which an opinion model is related to real election data. The model is based on a representation of opinions as a vector of k bits. Individuals interact according to the principle that similarity leads to interaction and interaction leads to still more similarity. In the comparison to real data we concentrate on the transient opinion profiles that form during the dynamic process. An artificial election procedure is introduced which allows to relate transient opinion configurations to the electoral performance of candidates for which data are available. The election procedure based on the well-established principle of proximity voting is repeatedly performed during the transient period and remarkable statistical agreement with the empirical data is observed.

  8. On the empirical relevance of the transient in opinion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banisch, Sven, E-mail: sven.banisch@universecity.d [Mathematical Physics, Physics Department, Bielefeld University, 33501 Bielefeld (Germany); Institute for Complexity Science (ICC), 1249-078 Lisbon (Portugal); Araujo, Tanya, E-mail: tanya@iseg.utl.p [Research Unit on Complexity in Economics (UECE), ISEG, TULisbon, 1249-078 Lisbon (Portugal); Institute for Complexity Science (ICC), 1249-078 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2010-07-12

    While the number and variety of models to explain opinion exchange dynamics is huge, attempts to justify the model results using empirical data are relatively rare. As linking to real data is essential for establishing model credibility, this Letter develops an empirical confirmation experiment by which an opinion model is related to real election data. The model is based on a representation of opinions as a vector of k bits. Individuals interact according to the principle that similarity leads to interaction and interaction leads to still more similarity. In the comparison to real data we concentrate on the transient opinion profiles that form during the dynamic process. An artificial election procedure is introduced which allows to relate transient opinion configurations to the electoral performance of candidates for which data are available. The election procedure based on the well-established principle of proximity voting is repeatedly performed during the transient period and remarkable statistical agreement with the empirical data is observed.

  9. Chaotic Modes in Scale Free Opinion Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusmartsev, Feo V.; Kürten, Karl E.

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate processes associated with formation of public opinion in varies directed random, scale free and small-world social networks. The important factor of the opinion formation is the existence of contrarians which were discovered by Granovetter in various social psychology experiments1,2,3 long ago and later introduced in sociophysics by Galam.4 When the density of contrarians increases the system behavior drastically changes at some critical value. At high density of contrarians the system can never arrive to a consensus state and periodically oscillates with different periods depending on specific structure of the network. At small density of the contrarians the behavior is manifold. It depends primary on the initial state of the system. If initially the majority of the population agrees with each other a state of stable majority may be easily reached. However when originally the population is divided in nearly equal parts consensus can never be reached. We model the emergence of collective decision making by considering N interacting agents, whose opinions are described by two state Ising spin variable associated with YES and NO. We show that the dynamical behaviors are very sensitive not only to the density of the contrarians but also to the network topology. We find that a phase of social chaos may arise in various dynamical processes of opinion formation in many realistic models. We compare the prediction of the theory with data describing the dynamics of the average opinion of the USA population collected on a day-by-day basis by varies media sources during the last six month before the final Obama-McCain election. The qualitative ouctome is in reasonable agreement with the prediction of our theory. In fact, the analyses of these data made within the paradigm of our theory indicates that even in this campaign there were chaotic elements where the public opinion migrated in an unpredictable chaotic way. The existence of such a phase

  10. The relevance of security analyst opinions for investment decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerritsen, D.F.

    2014-01-01

    Security analysts analyze information regarding publicly traded companies after which they publish their opinion regarding these companies’ stocks. In this dissertation the published opinions of two different types of analysts are analyzed. Technical analysts derive a recommendation to buy, hold, or

  11. Breast Imaging Second Opinions Impact Surgical Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spivey, Tara Lynn; Carlson, Kjirsten Ayn; Janssen, Imke; Witt, Thomas R; Jokich, Peter; Madrigrano, Andrea

    2015-07-01

    Breast surgeons often see women for second opinions for abnormalities found on breast imaging. For second opinions, these images are submitted for review and interpretation by dedicated breast imagers. This study evaluated the conformity of results among interpretation of imaging submitted from outside hospitals both from tertiary care centers, as well as community programs, in an attempt to evaluate the utility of this practice for the sake of clinical management and resource utilization. A retrospective chart review was conducted on all breast patients that submitted outside imaging films for the years 2011 to 2013 at Rush University Medical Center (RUMC). The radiologic diagnosis and each patient's proposed management plan was collected and evaluated for concordance between the outside institutions and RUMC. A total of 380 patients who presented for second opinions with an interpretation of outside exams were evaluated. In 47.4 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 42.4-52.4] of cases there was distinct variance in radiologic impression. For 53.5 % (95 % CI 48.4-58.5) of patients, there was a change in recommended management plan, which included recommendations for either additional imaging or need for additional biopsy. In total, this changed the overall surgical management in 27.1 % (95 % CI 22.8-31.9) of cases. In six patients, the reinterpretation of outside imaging detected new malignancies not previously identified. Overall, 83.7 % (95 % CI 79.7-87.1) of patients who submitted imaging from outside institutions chose to complete the remainder of their treatment at RUMC. The practice of second opinion review changed overall definitive management at our specialty center in more than one in four cases. In addition, the review identified six previously unrecognized malignancies. Given this data, the practice of second opinions and interpretation of outside exams should continue despite the additional resources required.

  12. Changes in alcohol policies and public opinions in Finland 2003-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Österberg, Esa; Lindeman, Mikaela; Karlsson, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    There is a constant and ongoing interplay between public opinions and public policies, alcohol policies being no exception. This article describes the development of public opinions regarding alcohol policy in Finland during a 10-year period between 2003 and 2013. Fluctuations in the alcohol policy opinion climate are put in context by looking at concurrent changes in alcohol policies and in total alcohol consumption. The study is based on data from opinion surveys on alcohol policies commissioned by the National Institute for Health and Welfare and the Finnish Social and Health Association. The opinion polls include questions about the general acceptance of prevailing alcohol policies, appropriate sales channels of different alcoholic beverage categories and opinions about the legal age limits and prices of alcoholic beverages. In the study, changes in alcohol policy during 2003-2013 are surveyed, and their relationship with changes in alcohol policy opinion is examined. There seem to be a strong positive correlation during the study period between the level of alcohol consumption and the share of those wanting a more restrictive alcohol policy in Finland. It seems that an increased level of awareness of alcohol-related issues among the general public created a more restrictive opinion climate on alcohol policy issues after the big alcohol excise duty decrease in 2004. The reverse seems to happen but in a lesser degree when alcohol excise duties has been increased after the year 2007. © 2014 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  13. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  14. Using Spatial, Economic, and Ecological Opinion Data to Inform Gray Wolf Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Meredith S; Nickerson, Norma P; Metcalf, Elizabeth Covelli

    2016-09-01

    Public opinion can be an influential factor in wildlife management decisions. Evaluating public opinions can help legitimize, or delegitimize, management and facilitate long-term conservation goals. This is especially true for the controversial issues surrounding the management of predators. We surveyed Montana, USA, residents during summer of 2013 to measure public opinion regarding economic and ecological impacts of the gray wolf ( Canis lupus ), and current management of this species. Although opinions were polarized in some areas, a greater percentage of Montanans think that wolves negatively affect the economy, but impact tourism (which contributes to the economy) positively. These differences may reflect the belief that rancher economic losses from wolf predation of cattle is greater than overall tourism gains related to wolves (e.g., wolf-watching), in addition to the perception of wolves negatively affecting big game (e.g., elk [ Cervus canadensis ]). Results also show that a slightly greater percentage of Montanans feel that wolves positively rather than negatively affect the ecosystem. Regarding specific practices, more Montanans than not have a positive opinion of maintaining wolves on the landscape and also support hunting of wolves. More Montanans hold negative rather than positive opinions, however, regarding wolf trapping. This result was most evident in western Montana as assessed by a spatial distribution of opinions by county and has implications for current wolf management and nontarget species. Results of ordinal regression analyses revealed that big game hunters, males, and those who held negative opinions of the effect of wolves on the Montana ecosystem and economy were significantly more likely to support both hunting and trapping practices. Living in western Montana predicted positive opinions of hunting, but alternatively, negative opinions of trapping. These results provide an understanding of public opinion of wolf management by county as

  15. Using Spatial, Economic, and Ecological Opinion Data to Inform Gray Wolf Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Meredith S.; Nickerson, Norma P.; Metcalf, Elizabeth Covelli

    2018-01-01

    Public opinion can be an influential factor in wildlife management decisions. Evaluating public opinions can help legitimize, or delegitimize, management and facilitate long-term conservation goals. This is especially true for the controversial issues surrounding the management of predators. We surveyed Montana, USA, residents during summer of 2013 to measure public opinion regarding economic and ecological impacts of the gray wolf (Canis lupus), and current management of this species. Although opinions were polarized in some areas, a greater percentage of Montanans think that wolves negatively affect the economy, but impact tourism (which contributes to the economy) positively. These differences may reflect the belief that rancher economic losses from wolf predation of cattle is greater than overall tourism gains related to wolves (e.g., wolf-watching), in addition to the perception of wolves negatively affecting big game (e.g., elk [Cervus canadensis]). Results also show that a slightly greater percentage of Montanans feel that wolves positively rather than negatively affect the ecosystem. Regarding specific practices, more Montanans than not have a positive opinion of maintaining wolves on the landscape and also support hunting of wolves. More Montanans hold negative rather than positive opinions, however, regarding wolf trapping. This result was most evident in western Montana as assessed by a spatial distribution of opinions by county and has implications for current wolf management and nontarget species. Results of ordinal regression analyses revealed that big game hunters, males, and those who held negative opinions of the effect of wolves on the Montana ecosystem and economy were significantly more likely to support both hunting and trapping practices. Living in western Montana predicted positive opinions of hunting, but alternatively, negative opinions of trapping. These results provide an understanding of public opinion of wolf management by county as

  16. Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

  17. Preserving experience through expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

  18. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  19. Financial and Non Financial Factors on Going-Concern Opinion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junaidi Junaidi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Company's ability to survive is a fundamental uncertainty faced in the preparation and auditing financial statements. Provision of going-concern opinion on these financial statements the company is still being debated. Public Accountant Professional Standards in section 341 states that the auditor is responsible for evaluating whether there is a major doubt on the ability of entities in the continued survival of the appropriate period of time, not more than one year from the date of the financial statements being audited. This research analyzed the financial and non financial factors that affected the provision of going-concern opinion. This research used samples of 63 companies with 315 observations, taken from years 2005-2009. The logistic regression analysis showed that the company's financial condition variables, mitigating evidence, and disclosure significantly influence the acceptance of going-concern opinion. Enterprise risk was not significant at propensity of going-concern opinion.

  20. 42 CFR 411.380 - When CMS issues a formal advisory opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false When CMS issues a formal advisory opinion. 411.380... Relationships Between Physicians and Entities Furnishing Designated Health Services § 411.380 When CMS issues a formal advisory opinion. (a) CMS considers an advisory opinion to be issued once it has received payment...